WEBVTT
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Welcome back to the stream.
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Welcome back to the stream.
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Sometimes you wake up, you get a little pissed off, little things that get you going.
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You gotta just find it, dude.
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You gotta snap out of it, you gotta just fucking find it, dude.
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You gotta find it.
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I got the nicest suit on you've ever seen.
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There's a lot going on.
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It's good to see your beautiful faces back in the stream.
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It is 8 41 a.m.
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EST in the great state of New York City.
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We have a lot to talk about.
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It's FOMC today, which I'm not gonna be live for.
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I think it's at 3 o'clock.
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I think it's 3 o'clock um PM EST.
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And the prediction is that we are gonna get nothing, but there's a reasonable 30-ish percent give or take that we get hikes.
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If we get hikes, we're getting sent to the shadow realm.
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If we get nothing, we're probably so back, and they're not gonna cut.
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So Wars's second F O M C it's an exciting one, it's an interesting one, it's kind of a scary one.
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At the same time, SK Heinex missed yesterday.
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They had incredible earnings, but they missed devious expectations.
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And DRAM got sent to the shadow realm, dude.
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4285 was bottom tick on DRAM, which is just disgusting, bro.
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Disgusting.
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They sent that thing to fucking that bottom tick on DRAM, bro, is minus 48%, which is gross.
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That is scary, man.
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48% down is gross.
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And the cos B was down, I don't know what it was down six percent, dude.
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Our Korean brothers are doing some wild shit to the charts over there.
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We have Gary V to talk about.
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We have this fucking pipe dog coin, which is insane.
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We got that to talk about.
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We have this, I don't know, we got a lot, man.
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We have is good.
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Okay, I had this realization the other day.
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How how how have we gotten to a place where the only people that can afford advertising on products that I use are dating apps and gambling platforms?
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You don't see ads for any for normal stuff anymore, ever.
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You don't see ads for like a water gun or like a blaster or like a Lego set.
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You don't see advertisements for products, you don't see advertisements for anything anymore except for gambling and dating apps.
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It is like overwhelmed my feet.
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I've never chat.
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Yes or no?
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Have you seen an ad for icy box watch slots?
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I mean, they're spending more money on marketing than any ad I've ever seen in my entire life, these guys.
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Have you seen this or no?
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Surely you've seen this.
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It's nuts.
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It has it has absolutely taken over my phone.
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I don't see ads for anything else.
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There's nothing else.
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Terrifying, you want to get black pilled real pick real quick?
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Black pilling headline just came out today that 2025 is the first time on record that marijuana is the most popular daily addictive product.
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This is insanely black pilling.
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If you understand the implications that there's almost no room for hope, it must be so tragic to be a teenager now.
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More Americans now use marijuana daily than drink or smoke.
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That is terrifying.
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I'm so serious.
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I need a chart.
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Somebody from the data team overlay, the downfall of like birth, birth rate, that's the word I was looking for.
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Birth rate in the US with the uptick of marijuana consumption in the US.
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100%.
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I guarantee I guarantee it is the it is one-to-one overlaid.
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I think if everybody cut the weed for the for the wine, I hate to agree with Shamath.
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I really, really, really hate to agree with Shamath.
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But if everybody cut the bud for the wine, I think, I think great improvements across the world, like incredible improvements across the world.
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I saw this tweet.
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I think this is arguably the greatest short form video that is ever I've ever watched on social media.
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It might be the greatest short form video I've ever watched.
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It has nothing to do with anything we have to cover today, other than the fact that I I wish I made this.
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It's okay.
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Let's see what we got.
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Haven't smiled since Trump coin.
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I know, bro.
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Okay, let's see what we got here.
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First one we got is uh Bernie Madoff.
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Pretty good.
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Yeah.
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That's in the 80s, too.
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That's good.
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Yeah, yeah.
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I've I've seen a few of these around before.
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Up next.
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Solid Sam Bankman freed here.
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That's nice.
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That's really nice.
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What's this made out of?
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I think he made it a balsa wood.
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Is this balsa wood?
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Alright.
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That's good.
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Wow.
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This is a this is a vintage Zuckerberg.
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O5?
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This is a vintage O5 Zuckerberg.
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Let's just check the back really quick.
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Yeah.
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There it is.
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That is a patch from his fruit of the loom.
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Boxer briefs.
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You can tell by the smell.
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Yeah, that's it.
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Onion, hand cream.
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Um so that's great.
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We should sleeve this one.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Alright, up next.
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Ooh, okay.
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Nice.
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Elizabeth Holmes.
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We do have two, I believe.
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We have two, but a triple Holmes is what every good collector has got in their arsenals.
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Alright, we have one left left.
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One card left.
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Three, two, one.
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Oh my god! Oh my god! Oh my god! Oh my god.
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Oh my god.
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It's a holographic.
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There it is.
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That's a genuine holographic his moniker in the corner.
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Straight off of the island with this leave it and um you know what this will go great with?
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Um put this with the Gates collection.
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It's so good.
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This is not.
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This is real.
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Netanyahu will meet with U.S.
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Secretary of Defense Pete Heggsath is just unbelievable.
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By the way, on life support, Trump is coming out and he's tweeting shit like this.
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We'll be hitting Iran hard.
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Talking tweeting about Fauci and hitting Iran, which is unbelievable.
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We'll hit them hard.
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He vowed a forceful response after U.S.
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forces interpreted intercepted an Iranian missile attack in Jordan, saying we're gonna beat the effing shit out of them and we'll be hitting them hard.
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We'll be beating the fucking shit out of them, is what he said.
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We're gonna beat the fucking shit out of them.
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That is where we're at with war.
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Gary V went on TV PN and I actually think he had some really good takes that kind of fired me up.
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Um, now does he repurpose a lot of my takes?
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He does, but he had some good takes that kind of fired me up.
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I believe collectibles have eaten up the pop culture energy of what young 20-year-olds would do with public stocks.
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So instead of buying 50 shares of Nike like my generation did, they're gonna go buy a collectible.
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I think it's I don't know if I fully agree with that, by the way.
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Uh meme coins have done this as well.
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Completely eaten up the oxygen of contemporary art.
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Especially after your nice chat, you'll buy an art like physical.
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Has anyone here spent more than a thousand dollars on physical art in the last year?
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I have not.
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I kind of want to, but it's really it's hard to buy.
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I don't know.
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It's different artists, it it finds it hard to feel any level of attachment.
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Like I feel like when people were buying Pollux in like warholes, there was like a couple hundred artists.
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Now there's like infinite transactions, like you know, continue to hang around people of wealth at a young age, your contemporaries, people in their 30s, 40s, 50s, only 25 years ago, 30 years ago, are buying the hottest contemporary artist to put the art in the house.
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Much of that money is now going into hundred thousand dollar, million dollar collectibles.
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Obviously, Michael Rubin sitting on the top of the top's empire with all his cultural relevance, has brought an incredible amount of pop culture energy to it.
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And kids, people forget trading cards are 100 years of collectability now.
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This has been a very long-term asset class, but the numbers are just out of control.
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You know this, even for you guys that are young, definitely people of my generation, people that collected cards as teenagers in the 80s and 90s were nerdy.
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People collecting cards are now cool, and once that happens, it gets really different really fast, and we're on that other side.
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I mean, bro, my start to NF to crypto was sports cards.
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I'm pretty, I'm a pretty, I'm pretty pilled on the sports cardification, like the physical cardification of the world.
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I think it's uh it's a pretty big deal.
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There's one more Gary V clip.
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I think it in a lot of ways replaces physical art.
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I I don't hate that take.
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I think it physical, uh I think it replaces physical art.
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But but I want I I don't want to put a Pokemon card on my wall.
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No, sir.
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I want to put some physical art on my wall, so I don't know.
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But I got nothing here.
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I this room has nothing in it.
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I just bought an art piece actually, if you want to see it.
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I spent$400 on this thing, and I I don't even know.
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Should I open it?
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Should I open it?
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Wait, do you want to see it right now?
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It's pretty cool.
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I spent$400 on it.
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Maybe a little bit less.
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Okay, wait, let me show you what I bought.
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It's pretty sick, actually.
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I've been sitting here for like three weeks.
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Because I don't know how to get it framed.
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Look, it's pretty cool.
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Like, wow, like it's cool.
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Nothing crazy.
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It's it's it's cool.
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It's cool.
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It's cool.
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It's like New York City shit.
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Like, it's not bad.
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Yeah, it's like an ice piece.
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Yeah, but it's$400.
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And you know, the thing about buying a$400 art piece is like, how am I gonna tell them no?
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How am I gonna tell them it's not worth that?
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Like, no, this artist actually goes for like$150 for a 12 by 12.
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Like how I have no idea.
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It's a stock axe.
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Like, how am I gonna how am I gonna tell them what it's worth?
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I have no clue.
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You could print one of those pictures from$2.
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This is my problem with with the art.
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It is, it's my problem, but it's pretty fire.
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And so here's one more Gary V take.
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Um, people are yearning for more real life, run clubs, hiking tours, ski, instructing.
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It's just so clear to me the explosion of analog 2036 is going to feel like 2065, and because of that, the opportunity is to build businesses that feel like 1965.
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And I saw this tweet, it was nuts.
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Lucy Hampton card shop at this tweet.
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Um, this is the most unconventional yet fascinating business ever.
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Malcolm, you know about this.
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It's the old friend, it's called Old Friend Photo Booth.
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Recently blew up in New York.
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Tens of millions of views on socials, featured by NBC, always aligned around the block.
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What it is, they have two locations in New York where you pay eight dollars for a photo strip.
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Eight bucks.
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I'm guessing they go through 400 to 600 strips per day per location.
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I think it's more 5k a day or 100k a month from a tiny photo booth costs.
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A vintage photo booth is probably 20k, and rent is probably 5k a month.
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So these things are printing more than 1 million dollars a year.
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Why are we building software again?
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Have you seen this?
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I dude, I've I have heard about this like infinite times.
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Like we're going to the photo booth, we're going to the photo booth, we're going to the photo booth.
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The real problem with longing IRL that I've realized after StubHub, and my girl spent a line, an hour in line for this.
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Yes.
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Real problem I have uncovered with longing IRL as I've been so correct.
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Like I sniped this shit.
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Was I the first person to talk about it?
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No.
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But I undisputedly have sniped this six months ago.
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I'm talking about this every day.
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The second I moved to New York, that was basically the insight.
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The second I touched down JFK in New York City, I'm like, oh yeah, long IRL.
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Absolutely.
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I snipe this shit.
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Problem is it's fragmented into all of these like niche experiences.
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That like what am I gonna open?
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A photo booth company?
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No, there's no way.
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I can't open a photo booth company.
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Like, you know what, you know what I think's gonna go crazy this decade is like drive-in movie theaters.
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But how do how how do I open a 10x long on a drive-in movie theater?
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It's not happening.
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Like, okay, carnivals.
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How do I how do I long carnivals?
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Not happening.
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Diners, vintage diners, but is that a good business?
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No.
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Then you're just like, I don't know, I'm just gonna build a data center, bro.
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Like, I'm just gonna long it.
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Like, you just you just get away from it because the the economics don't make a lot of sense.
00:11:15.200 --> 00:11:16.000
So I don't know.
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You could I could open a sh a suit shop, it's possible, but I don't know.
00:11:20.159 --> 00:11:26.399
So let's talk about longing motorcycles since the generation is ripping the burbs up on those electric bikes.
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That would have been a crazy trade, by the way.
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My home, I'll tell you the story real quick.
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Is I grew up in like a suburb ass neighborhood, right?
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And my parents still my parents like still live around there, and they have the Facebook mom's chat, you know.
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You guys know about the Facebook mom's chat, obviously.
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And the Facebook mom's chat has been in utter shambles for like four years because of the kids ripping the electric bikes up and down the roads, like they're fucking terrorizing my neighborhood on these bikes, and they've been doing it for five, six years nonstop.
00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:09.919
And they age out and they go to college, and then their little brother takes over, and they're whipping up and down the street on these like electric bikes, and people have lost their fucking mind.
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So I don't know.
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Interesting.
00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:16.000
Does anyone have a take from me on what the fuck this is, man?
00:12:16.159 --> 00:12:17.200
I'll tell you one thing.
00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:32.159
I'm laying in bed last night and I'm thinking about it, and I'm in this chat with Frank, and Frank made this comment, and he was like, Bro, every person that has ever traded crypto in their entire life is on their knees right now, praying for this thing to go to zero.
00:12:32.399 --> 00:12:37.120
Like, so many people would be so happy if this thing went to zero.
00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:39.279
Because it was one of those coins.
00:12:39.360 --> 00:12:46.480
If you wake up in the middle of the night and this thing is like 150 mil, you are just like, you don't even know what to say to yourself.
00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:51.200
Like the entire chain, I'm laying in bed and I'm like, I'm crossing myself.
00:12:51.279 --> 00:12:57.279
I'm like, God, you know, in Jesus' name, like send this fucking thing to zero, man.
00:12:57.759 --> 00:13:06.000
Um, the craziest part about this coin to me, by the way, is I wish I could come here and do the whole like there's opportunities every day in crypto.
00:13:06.720 --> 00:13:12.000
The craziest part about this coin is that it's spent 24 hours, maybe a little bit long, maybe a little bit less.
00:13:12.159 --> 00:13:15.600
If I recall correctly, it launched while I was on stream with Ansom.
00:13:15.919 --> 00:13:22.559
Because, bro, I'm interviewing Ansom and I'm like looking at my Telegram and my chats are firing, and everyone's like, What is this?
00:13:22.639 --> 00:13:23.039
What is this?
00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:23.919
What is this?
00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:30.320
Everyone's throwing out like random founder names, like, oh, I heard so-and-so is involved, I heard so-and-so is involved, I heard so-and-so is involved.
00:13:30.399 --> 00:13:37.360
No one has any fucking idea, no one has any clue, and it's moving like it's moving like boom, bro.
00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:44.799
No one has a single clue in the world, and then you wake up the next day, it's at 44 mil, and nobody has leaked anything.
00:13:45.039 --> 00:13:46.159
Is wild to me.
00:13:46.399 --> 00:13:49.759
As always, stock market open is powered by Phantom.
00:13:49.840 --> 00:14:04.639
It is powered by Phantom because anything you want you see during this segment, anything you want to trade, whether it's a stock, whether it's a tokenized stock, whether it's a coin, whether it's an alt, whether it's a crypto major, whether you want to sell any of it and put it in his tables, you can do it with Phantom.
00:14:04.720 --> 00:14:08.159
And the stock market is officially open.
00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:09.120
Let's fucking go.
00:14:09.200 --> 00:14:09.919
Let's fucking go.
00:14:10.080 --> 00:14:11.600
Let us fucking go.
00:14:11.679 --> 00:14:17.440
It might be kind of slow on the way up to F FOMC because people want to don't want to do anything, but we'll see.
00:14:17.600 --> 00:14:18.559
Um, let's go.
00:14:18.639 --> 00:14:21.440
The SPX opens down 0.2%.
00:14:22.320 --> 00:14:27.840
The NASDAQ 100 opening with a green candle 27797.8.
00:14:28.080 --> 00:14:30.159
It is up 0.67.
00:14:30.799 --> 00:14:34.799
The Dow is down a full percent, but who really cares?
00:14:34.960 --> 00:14:41.840
The cosby on yesterday's trading session was down six percent, which is that might can hear everything.
00:14:42.000 --> 00:14:43.679
Um, cosby down six percent yesterday.
00:14:43.759 --> 00:14:44.320
It's disgusting.
00:14:44.559 --> 00:14:48.080
We'll take a deeper dive into that in a little bit here.
00:14:48.320 --> 00:14:52.080
Five now down 0.2, the Russell low cap 2000 is flat.
00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:59.120
The Qs are down 0.16, the socks is down 0.92, the Soxel they're drilling it, man.
00:14:59.279 --> 00:15:01.679
Uh 106.52.
00:15:01.919 --> 00:15:03.759
That's down about three percent.
00:15:04.000 --> 00:15:05.759
The IGV is green.
00:15:05.919 --> 00:15:07.440
Frank, what's your IGV take?
00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:13.519
That is up 0.65, mags are down 0.3, and DRAM is flat.
00:15:13.679 --> 00:15:15.039
It looks very uneventful today.
00:15:15.120 --> 00:15:18.559
I'm not sure how much time we're gonna spend on uh on market open.
00:15:18.720 --> 00:15:21.440
Um, all right, crypto on open, not great.
00:15:21.600 --> 00:15:23.840
Bitcoin 64, 137.
00:15:24.320 --> 00:15:26.879
They're trying to send IGV, but let's stop them, bro.
00:15:27.919 --> 00:15:32.480
1900 on ETH Pump 1868, Shaw's 44.
00:15:32.720 --> 00:15:42.159
Gross Perd down 1.3, silver 57 flat soul 73, stretch flat 88, bond yields candling across the board.
00:15:42.399 --> 00:15:59.440
The VIX that is up five gold that is 4k and flat copper 637 flat Zcash 463 and going up on open oil 84 on crude.
00:15:59.600 --> 00:16:05.120
That's up 6.3 percent Brent oil 91759.
00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:10.320
We have a problem on our hands, and it does not seem to be going away.
00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:11.919
Also, YouTube, Twitter.
00:16:12.000 --> 00:16:16.480
If you would like to chat, twitch.tv slash thread guy.
00:16:16.639 --> 00:16:20.159
All right, um, Palantir and defense are all flat.
00:16:20.320 --> 00:16:21.919
Nasty candle on Palantir.
00:16:22.159 --> 00:16:23.360
Here's where it counts.
00:16:23.600 --> 00:16:29.120
Okay, big AI, semis, hyperscalers, mags, a little bit of everything.
00:16:29.360 --> 00:16:34.879
Biggest gainers, bloom energy 177, but it just took out pre-market lows.
00:16:34.960 --> 00:16:36.240
How do you know so much up 24?
00:16:36.320 --> 00:16:38.639
The the the the the question, the real answer is I don't.
00:16:38.799 --> 00:16:40.559
Snowflake, that's up six percent.
00:16:40.639 --> 00:16:42.879
They're trying to send IGV and let's not let them.
00:16:42.960 --> 00:16:46.240
Cloudflare is up three, micron is up two and a half, it's at 840.
00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:49.039
Wow, it hit lows of 770, brother.
00:16:49.200 --> 00:16:54.240
ASTS up two sand disk back over 1100.
00:16:54.399 --> 00:16:55.360
That's up one percent.
00:16:55.519 --> 00:16:58.480
Blackberry is up two percent, skinex adr.
00:16:58.559 --> 00:17:00.240
That's up two percent.
00:17:00.399 --> 00:17:01.519
It's 131.
00:17:01.600 --> 00:17:04.079
It hit a pre-market low of 118.
00:17:04.720 --> 00:17:13.119
Um, Salesforce is up two, Intel 87, Marvell is up one, Adobe's up one, Netflix was getting crushed, it's back to flat.
00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:22.079
Um, Google is flat, IBM is flat, biggest losers, RoboStrategy down six percent, Cerebrus 187.
00:17:22.559 --> 00:17:24.640
Shaws is 44.
00:17:24.880 --> 00:17:27.119
I'm not gonna lie, I got smoked on this.
00:17:27.680 --> 00:17:33.680
I got like legitimately smoked on Shaws for honestly, for no reason, like straight up.
00:17:34.000 --> 00:17:34.960
Pump is pumping.
00:17:35.279 --> 00:17:36.319
I guess, dude.
00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:38.000
What I mean, is it?
00:17:38.480 --> 00:17:42.720
I guess flies down two, space X is 114.
00:17:42.799 --> 00:17:44.079
Did you talk about Pipe Dog already?
00:17:44.160 --> 00:17:45.599
There's not that much to say, dude.
00:17:45.759 --> 00:17:48.000
There's not that much to say about Pipe Dog.
00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:58.240
Rocket Lab is down one, no keys at 1.3, Amazon basically flat, NVIDIA flat at 196, Microsoft flat at 391, Tesla flat at 305.
00:17:58.880 --> 00:18:00.720
God damn, Tesla.
00:18:00.960 --> 00:18:01.519
Fuck.
00:18:01.759 --> 00:18:02.799
Look at this.
00:18:03.039 --> 00:18:09.359
The bit is that Elon wants Tesla to get as cheap as possible so we can acquire it for as low as possible.
00:18:09.519 --> 00:18:16.319
And spay, but the problem is in order for that to work, you want SpaceX to be as high as possible, and that isn't exactly working.
00:18:16.559 --> 00:18:18.880
Meta is flat, AMD is flat.
00:18:19.119 --> 00:18:20.960
Gloom energy though is 186.
00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:21.759
That's moving a lot.
00:18:21.920 --> 00:18:25.200
Slow day, I suppose, until you get full MC today.
00:18:25.519 --> 00:18:28.960
It feels like there's no real nothing's really moving either.
00:18:29.039 --> 00:18:30.240
Like it feels like there's no volume.
00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:32.000
Um, Bitcoin 62.2.
00:18:32.640 --> 00:18:36.400
Um, yeah, there's it's not any crazy movement.
00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:38.799
Maybe that's for the better after the couple days we've been through.
00:18:39.039 --> 00:18:49.839
Soxil flips green, DRAM flips green, the socks flips green, hues flip green, spy is about to flip green, Nasdaq is green, Dow is down 0.8.
00:18:50.160 --> 00:18:54.720
Okay, some of our consumer SaaS, everything in between.
00:18:54.960 --> 00:18:58.880
We get Reddit 185, that's up four, Zay is up four.
00:18:58.960 --> 00:19:07.599
Um, Unity is up two, butterfly is up three, Snapchat's up two, Doordash up one, stub up 0.35, MSTR is 97, about to reclaim 100.
00:19:07.680 --> 00:19:08.880
Coinbase is green, nice.
00:19:09.039 --> 00:19:11.359
Take two interactive wavy 80.
00:19:11.440 --> 00:19:12.880
Look at that 248.
00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:13.519
How about that?
00:19:13.680 --> 00:19:16.000
Roblox is flat, hood is flat.
00:19:16.079 --> 00:19:22.400
They have earnings today, WCF flat, PayPal flat AMC 266.
00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:24.880
I'm gonna fucking just quit all this shit.
00:19:25.039 --> 00:19:30.160
Shopify's down one, Uber's down one, GME's down one, core we've done two and a half.
00:19:30.319 --> 00:19:32.799
Nebbius is 165.
00:19:33.359 --> 00:19:34.400
God damn.
00:19:34.720 --> 00:19:39.519
Last time it was at this price, it proceeded to pull a 90% move in about a week.
00:19:39.680 --> 00:19:40.720
Nebbius looks terrible.
00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:43.200
Him's 28, it's down a couple percent.
00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:46.880
Everything is kind of just slow, boring, gay.
00:19:46.960 --> 00:19:48.799
Here's FOMC right now.
00:19:48.960 --> 00:19:51.119
Um, not exactly what you would like to see.
00:19:51.279 --> 00:19:57.200
So, for the Fed decision in July, and I mean, look, I know you can look on the CME probabilities as well.
00:19:57.279 --> 00:19:59.279
There's 130 million dollars bet on this, though.
00:19:59.359 --> 00:20:01.599
There's a lot of money in the line on this on this market.
00:20:01.759 --> 00:20:02.400
Okay, ready?
00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:03.039
Listen to this.
00:20:03.119 --> 00:20:05.200
This is actually I forgot about this tweet.
00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:06.240
Yes, okay.
00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:08.960
It didn't matter last FOMC, but it actually matters now.
00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:10.799
All right, ready for years now.
00:20:10.960 --> 00:20:15.200
The actual rate change announced at every FOMC meeting did not matter.
00:20:15.359 --> 00:20:20.720
By the time the meeting occurred, the move was priced into the sofa curve weeks in advance.
00:20:20.880 --> 00:20:27.440
The only exception to this was in September 2024 when Powell surprised the rates market and cut 50 bips.
00:20:27.759 --> 00:20:34.480
This was one of the only times where we went into a meeting with 50-50 odds priced into the market, either 25 bips or 50 bips.
00:20:34.640 --> 00:20:42.400
This meant that the market reaction was largely driven by the change in pricing once it was announced, not the future reaction function.
00:20:42.559 --> 00:20:46.480
Before the ZARP zero interest rate era, this was the common way to do things.
00:20:46.640 --> 00:20:57.039
However, under Yellen and Powell and pioneered by Bernanke, the Fed mandate was to never surprise the rates market and ensure their move gets priced into markets well ahead of time.
00:20:57.279 --> 00:21:09.279
This is why, for so many years, casual Fed observers would be confused on days when, for example, we would cut rates and the market would sell off, or we held held rates steady and rallied.
00:21:09.440 --> 00:21:17.839
The market reaction function was entirely dependent on forward guidance and forward expectations, not the announced change that day.
00:21:18.079 --> 00:21:26.319
We are now going to enter a regime where what the Fed actually decides to do each meeting will be the marginal market driver again, and that is by design.
00:21:26.559 --> 00:21:28.480
Whoa, I forgot about this.
00:21:28.799 --> 00:21:34.640
In practice, I expect the next few meetings to be priced at 50-50 odds moving forward, and that's by design.
00:21:35.039 --> 00:21:42.880
It's now up to rates speculators to analyze the economic data and come to their own analysis on where rates should be.
00:21:43.119 --> 00:21:46.400
The Fed will not be spelling it out for us any longer.
00:21:46.720 --> 00:21:49.200
Overall, I think this is a good thing.
00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:56.799
Forward guidance was a tool from the ZERP era, pioneered by Renaki, as a way to ease monetary policy without going into negative rates.
00:21:56.960 --> 00:21:59.599
We're no longer in ZERP in a ZERP world, and it was time.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:01.599
Time to change this.
00:22:01.920 --> 00:22:16.079
Unnet, expect higher rate volatility, more sensitivity changes in sofa in the economy, less smoothening of business cycles, and a return to a more to a more pure tailor rule like reaction function.
00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:18.240
This is a big shift, in my opinion.
00:22:18.319 --> 00:22:23.119
In my opinion, a welcome one, despite my podcast being named Forward Guidance.
00:22:23.200 --> 00:22:24.880
What does Taylor rule mean?
00:22:25.039 --> 00:22:35.440
It's a math formula created by economist economist John Taylor in 1993 to help central banks set short-term interest rates based on inflation and economic growth.
00:22:35.519 --> 00:22:40.160
It uses inflation, the output gap, and neutral interest rate to guide monetary policy.
00:22:40.319 --> 00:22:55.119
Okay, so basically, for the last six years, other than one FOMC exception, it has been priced in like weeks in advance, exactly what was gonna happen, almost to a certainty, right?
00:22:55.200 --> 00:22:57.839
Like really, really, really high percentage.
00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:07.200
Because they would issue for like the Fed would issue forward guidance, and they would basically say exactly like that's what forward guidance is, right?
00:23:07.279 --> 00:23:09.920
Like they would tell you exactly what they're gonna do.
00:23:10.240 --> 00:23:20.799
Like, let's see, central bank communication tool uses signal the future path of monetary policy and interest rates, aiming to influence financial decision spending and investments.
00:23:20.960 --> 00:23:26.640
And so they would basically tell you, like, okay, like let's let's let's look at like January 2026.
00:23:26.960 --> 00:23:31.119
I mean, like, okay, like January 27th, it closes at 99.
00:23:31.519 --> 00:23:34.720
By January, yeah, by January 10th, it's like 90.
00:23:35.200 --> 00:23:38.000
A week out, everyone knows it's at 95.
00:23:38.559 --> 00:23:41.440
Dude, it's actually gonna be I've only seen it's gonna be electric again.
00:23:41.599 --> 00:23:43.039
Imagine a surprise cut.
00:23:43.200 --> 00:23:44.240
Oh, chills.
00:23:44.480 --> 00:23:46.960
Because everyone's always asking me what do I think about FWA?
00:23:47.039 --> 00:23:47.839
I'll tell you what I think about it.
00:23:48.000 --> 00:23:48.640
You know what I think?
00:23:48.720 --> 00:23:50.319
I'll read you a tweet that I like about it.
00:23:50.480 --> 00:23:51.039
Here it is.
00:23:51.200 --> 00:23:52.640
What's my theson on FWA?
00:23:52.799 --> 00:23:58.559
Very rarely do we get a new primitive that decentralizes a digital marketplace and allowing anyone to be the buyer or seller.
00:23:58.640 --> 00:24:01.279
Uniswap was the first to do it, decentralizing coin swaps.
00:24:01.440 --> 00:24:04.000
Next was OpenC decentralizing NFT trades.
00:24:04.160 --> 00:24:08.880
After that, prediction markets gotcha's loot boxes to this point have not been decentralized.
00:24:08.960 --> 00:24:10.799
There's the house and the player.
00:24:10.880 --> 00:24:13.440
So I see this as a new primitive with loads of possibilities.
00:24:13.599 --> 00:24:16.559
It's basically the same market cap as other novel altcoin launches.
00:24:16.640 --> 00:24:17.920
I like stockbrokers.
00:24:18.160 --> 00:24:24.720
Um, so for it to be a potentially defining new primitive and dirt cheap, easy for me to try and make some money on it.
00:24:24.880 --> 00:24:26.000
This is my general take.
00:24:26.160 --> 00:24:30.160
The problem is that I hate gotcha, like I'm not a target mark.
00:24:30.240 --> 00:24:34.880
Oh, I actually am a target user, but I'm I the gotcha, I hate the gotcha stuff, like in general.
00:24:34.960 --> 00:24:38.079
Like, I'm not like waking up and like hitting the gotcha minds.
00:24:38.640 --> 00:24:44.400
Okay, and so that puts me in a weird spot as like lead KOL for the gotcha thing.
00:24:44.480 --> 00:24:50.000
That's this makes a difficult situation that I seem to have found myself in.
00:24:50.240 --> 00:24:57.759
Um, but I like I generally mid-curve, not novel thing that brings nothing to the table.
00:24:58.000 --> 00:25:02.319
Like I'm not super good at like buying bad stuff.
00:25:02.640 --> 00:25:08.400
And then I get really like nerd-sniped by new, interesting primitive that I haven't seen before.
00:25:08.480 --> 00:25:12.079
That like really like fucking for better or for worse, like gets me going.
00:25:12.319 --> 00:25:18.000
And so this is one of those things that just like my weird autistic brain just got hooked on.
00:25:18.079 --> 00:25:35.279
All right, and other news um PayPal at earnings and PayPal beat earnings, and it led me to do a little look at the classic PayPal Mafia, which everybody knows about the PayPal Mafia, but I guess I didn't realize how insane the PayPal Mafia is.
00:25:35.359 --> 00:25:36.240
This is this is the lineup.
00:25:36.400 --> 00:25:39.039
Founding team of PayPal, like the OG PayPal squad.
00:25:39.200 --> 00:25:46.720
Number one, Peter Teal, PayPal founder and former CEO, sometimes called the Don of the PayPal Mafia.
00:25:46.799 --> 00:25:55.039
He's the founder of Palantir, a founder of the Founders Fund, one of the most successful VCs ever, and the first outside investor in Facebook.
00:25:55.279 --> 00:26:01.519
In 2025, Teal and Palantir began collaborating with the Department of Government Efficiency Doge for the second Trump administration.
00:26:01.680 --> 00:26:03.279
Number two, Elon Musk.
00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:11.839
Number three, David Sachs, former White House uh AI crypto czar and host of the All In Podcast.
00:26:12.079 --> 00:26:14.559
Number four, is I never heard of this guy in my life.
00:26:14.720 --> 00:26:21.920
Um, Max Max Levchin, founder and CEO of PayPal, or founder and CTO of PayPal, and the CEO of a firm.
00:26:22.079 --> 00:26:24.400
Isn't a firm like a Klarna clone clone?
00:26:24.480 --> 00:26:25.200
What's a firm?
00:26:25.359 --> 00:26:25.759
It is.
00:26:26.000 --> 00:26:30.240
God, what a fucking you should get like karmically punished for working on this.
00:26:30.319 --> 00:26:30.960
I'm sorry.
00:26:31.119 --> 00:26:34.240
This is deserving of like karmic retributions.
00:26:34.559 --> 00:26:37.519
I built I built a uh I made a billion dollars.
00:26:37.599 --> 00:26:38.720
How'd you make a billion dollars?
00:26:38.799 --> 00:26:39.839
I built Klarna.
00:26:40.160 --> 00:26:41.039
It's like, bro.
00:26:41.279 --> 00:26:44.240
Next, Scott Bannister, early advisor and board member at PayPal.
00:26:44.319 --> 00:26:44.640
Is that all?
00:26:44.720 --> 00:26:45.519
He's done nothing else.
00:26:45.839 --> 00:26:46.559
Done nothing else.
00:26:46.720 --> 00:26:47.680
Scott Bannister.
00:26:48.160 --> 00:26:49.200
He's done nothing else.
00:26:49.359 --> 00:26:50.480
No disrespect.
00:26:51.039 --> 00:26:52.160
That's a loose term.
00:26:52.400 --> 00:26:52.720
Oh.
00:26:52.960 --> 00:27:01.759
Later founded Ironport, sold to Cisco for a billion dollars, and became one of the most prolific angel investors in Silicon Valley history, backing Uber, Facebook, Zappos, and others.
00:27:02.000 --> 00:27:02.720
Got it.
00:27:02.960 --> 00:27:03.279
Okay.
00:27:03.599 --> 00:27:09.680
Um next, Roloff Botha, former PayPal CFO who became a partner at the venture firm Sequoia Capital.
00:27:09.920 --> 00:27:10.720
Insane.
00:27:11.119 --> 00:27:15.279
Um, next, Steve Chen, former PayPal engineer who co-founded YouTube.
00:27:15.680 --> 00:27:16.079
Nuts.
00:27:16.400 --> 00:27:20.480
Next, Reed Hoffman, former PayPal CFO who's a partner at Founders Fund.
00:27:20.559 --> 00:27:21.279
No, no, no, sorry.
00:27:21.519 --> 00:27:27.440
Former uh executive vice president who founded LinkedIn was an early investor in Facebook and Aviary.
00:27:27.519 --> 00:27:31.359
He sits on the board of Microsoft and spent too much time with Bill Gates.
00:27:31.920 --> 00:27:36.799
Next, Ken Howry, former PayPal CFO became a partner at Founders Fund and served as the U.S.
00:27:36.960 --> 00:27:41.119
ambassador to Sweden during the first Trump administration, and U.S.
00:27:41.200 --> 00:27:44.000
ambassador to Denmark during the second Trump administration.
00:27:44.160 --> 00:27:47.279
Chad Hurley, former PayPal web designer who co-founded YouTube.
00:27:47.680 --> 00:27:48.319
Eric M.
00:27:48.400 --> 00:27:57.920
Jackson, Jackson, Jackson, who wrote the book The PayPal Wars, became the chief executive off officer of WND Book.
00:27:58.240 --> 00:28:05.200
Dave McClure, former PayPal marketing director who co-founded 500 Global and became a super angel investor for startup companies.
00:28:05.279 --> 00:28:05.599
Okay.
00:28:05.759 --> 00:28:09.039
Andrew McCormick, founding partner at Veylor Ventures.
00:28:09.200 --> 00:28:14.880
Um, Luke Nossick, PayPal co-founder and former vice president of marketing strategy, became a partner at Founders Fund.
00:28:14.960 --> 00:28:15.759
Um, how do you say that?
00:28:15.839 --> 00:28:16.880
How do you say this guy's name?
00:28:17.039 --> 00:28:17.920
Keith Rabboy.
00:28:18.000 --> 00:28:19.680
Rabboy's Keith Rabboy.
00:28:19.759 --> 00:28:20.640
I see this guy all the time.
00:28:20.720 --> 00:28:25.200
Um, former executive PayPal later worked at LinkedIn Square, Culsa Ventures and Founders Fund.
00:28:25.279 --> 00:28:33.119
Um, this guy I feel that's if I know Jack Selby, former vice president of corporate international development, PayPal, co-founded Clarion Capital.
00:28:33.200 --> 00:28:34.480
They're all like in venture now.
00:28:34.720 --> 00:28:42.720
Rabboy, okay, with Peter Teal is the founder of AZVC, formerly Envision AZ fund with which focuses on Arizona.
00:28:42.880 --> 00:28:49.680
Um, Primal Shaw, former product manager at PayPal, who became the founding president of Kiva.org.
00:28:49.839 --> 00:28:50.640
What is that?
00:28:51.119 --> 00:28:52.319
Kiva org.
00:28:52.559 --> 00:28:53.839
Make a loan change a life.
00:28:53.920 --> 00:28:55.759
The first online lending platform.
00:28:55.839 --> 00:28:56.480
That's kind of cool.
00:28:56.720 --> 00:29:00.480
Russell Simmons, former PayPal engineer who co-founded Yelp.
00:29:00.640 --> 00:29:01.519
That's insane.
00:29:01.680 --> 00:29:06.240
Jeremy Stoppelman, former vice president of technology at PayPal who co-founded Yelp.
00:29:06.319 --> 00:29:07.680
Okay, these guys made Yelp.
00:29:07.920 --> 00:29:11.680
Um, wow, this guy's from PayPal.
00:29:11.920 --> 00:29:13.279
This guy launched a coin.
00:29:13.519 --> 00:29:13.920
What?
00:29:14.079 --> 00:29:16.640
This guy launched a coin like three three months ago.
00:29:16.960 --> 00:29:18.319
Hold his coin, Terra.
00:29:18.559 --> 00:29:25.440
Yishin Wong, former engineer, engineering manager at PayPal, who later worked at Facebook, became the CEO of Reddit and founded Terra Formation Inc.
00:29:25.680 --> 00:29:26.640
He launched a coin.
00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:35.279
And then last but not least is Yu Pawn, one of the co-founders of PayPal, and played a role in designing the company's user interface and user experience.
00:29:35.359 --> 00:29:38.880
He later became involved in YouTube and co-founded KiwiCrate.
00:29:39.039 --> 00:29:50.319
So from this, LinkedIn was created, David Sachs was created, Yelp was created, YouTube was created, and the CEO of Reddit, and then a couple other like when Tilde, what is the dialogue?
00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:51.519
Secret Society.
00:29:51.680 --> 00:29:52.160
Wait, wait, wait.
00:29:52.240 --> 00:29:57.519
It's a private invitation-only organization co-founded in 2006 by tech investor Peter Teal and Orin Hoffman.
00:29:57.599 --> 00:29:59.920
It functions as an off-the-record annual retreat.
00:30:00.000 --> 00:30:01.599
I feel like I've seen a movie about this.
00:30:01.839 --> 00:30:07.200
Bringing together global leaders, tech executives, politicians, and academics.
00:30:07.440 --> 00:30:09.759
Dialogue secretary members.
00:30:10.079 --> 00:30:10.400
Leak.
00:30:10.720 --> 00:30:11.680
How did it get leaked?
00:30:11.759 --> 00:30:13.680
Oh, a hacking group leaked it.
00:30:13.920 --> 00:30:14.240
Whoa.
00:30:14.559 --> 00:30:16.160
A bunch of names I've never heard of.
00:30:16.400 --> 00:30:17.279
Scott Besson.
00:30:17.440 --> 00:30:18.559
Greg Brockman.
00:30:18.720 --> 00:30:20.160
A bunch of names I've never heard of.
00:30:20.400 --> 00:30:21.279
Ed Cruz.
00:30:21.440 --> 00:30:22.160
Tim Ferris.
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:23.039
Tim Ferris.
00:30:23.359 --> 00:30:24.400
Reed Hoffman.
00:30:24.640 --> 00:30:24.880
Huh.
00:30:24.960 --> 00:30:26.079
I've never heard of this.
00:30:26.319 --> 00:30:27.279
All right, I'm bored.
00:30:27.519 --> 00:30:28.240
Good video.
00:30:28.480 --> 00:30:30.480
Um, there's no way I'm making it to the end.
00:30:30.559 --> 00:30:31.279
That was fun, though.
00:30:31.359 --> 00:30:32.880
Shout to uh shout to Peter.
00:30:33.200 --> 00:30:38.880
Apple has come out with this new launch, and they are calling it Apple Upgrade.
00:30:39.039 --> 00:30:42.480
Apple Upgrade has officially launched in the US.
00:30:42.640 --> 00:30:58.640
Customers can now lease a range of Apple products on 12, 24, or 36 month terms with monthly payments ranging from$11.99 to$327.21, depending on the device and configuration.
00:30:59.279 --> 00:31:01.200
Everything's a subscription now.
00:31:01.680 --> 00:31:18.319
And so they're offering a subscription to lease an iPhone for$17.99,$11.99 for an Apple Watch,$24.99 for a Mac, and$11.99 for an iPad.
00:31:18.400 --> 00:31:18.720
Okay.
00:31:18.880 --> 00:31:23.359
And my question is in what world do these economics make sense?
00:31:23.519 --> 00:31:26.240
It almost feels like it's too cheap to work.
00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:30.559
You're telling me for$18 a month, I can have an I mean, but how much is an iPhone?
00:31:30.799 --> 00:31:32.559
It's like a thousand dollars.
00:31:32.720 --> 00:31:34.799
I mean, they're like twelve hundred dollars, bro.
00:31:34.960 --> 00:31:36.720
A thousand dollars, eight hundred dollars.
00:31:36.880 --> 00:31:50.559
Okay, if i phone's a thousand dollars, a thousand divided by fifty-five months, it would take fifth months to pay off the iPhone off subscriptions if it's a thousand dollars for eighteen dollars a month.
00:31:50.799 --> 00:31:51.200
What?
00:31:51.440 --> 00:31:52.880
Oh, that's zero percent.
00:31:52.960 --> 00:31:53.680
You're right.
00:31:53.920 --> 00:31:56.640
That is a crazy number.
00:31:56.880 --> 00:31:59.759
Leasing an iPhone is diabolical, by the way.
00:31:59.920 --> 00:32:01.119
But it's a good deal.
00:32:01.200 --> 00:32:02.319
Like, can you blame them?
00:32:02.480 --> 00:32:03.920
I I don't feel as if I can.
00:32:04.000 --> 00:32:04.720
It's a good deal.
00:32:04.880 --> 00:32:06.559
You know, this is where it starts.
00:32:06.720 --> 00:32:10.000
This is where it starts on you will own nothing and you will be happy.
00:32:10.160 --> 00:32:17.440
First, you don't even own your Chick-fil-A nuggets with Klarna, then you don't own your video games with PlayStation anymore.
00:32:17.599 --> 00:32:18.960
They have a digital subscription.
00:32:19.119 --> 00:32:23.519
Then you don't own your car, you lease it, you don't own your house, you gotta pay it off.
00:32:24.000 --> 00:32:25.759
You have a 50-year mortgage on your house.
00:32:25.920 --> 00:32:34.160
And then you don't own your phone, you don't own your iPad, you don't own your watch, you don't own your data in Chat GPT or Anthropic.
00:32:34.319 --> 00:32:39.200
You can't run a local model because it's it's banned, it's illegal, you're getting persecuted.
00:32:39.359 --> 00:32:41.440
You own nothing, you actually own nothing.
00:32:41.519 --> 00:32:49.519
You don't even own your collectibles anymore because they're fucking NFTs and like OpenC shuts down and you forgot your seed phrase, and then you don't even own you don't own that.
00:32:49.759 --> 00:32:51.119
You don't you don't own anything.
00:32:51.279 --> 00:32:52.000
It's insane.
00:32:52.079 --> 00:32:53.200
It's actually nuts.
00:32:53.440 --> 00:32:55.359
Um, and so I don't know.
00:32:55.519 --> 00:32:57.119
Apple comes out with this announcement.
00:32:57.200 --> 00:32:58.880
I I I've never seen this before.
00:32:58.960 --> 00:33:06.720
I didn't even know you could you could uh this was like a very like a viable business model, like how in what world is that profitable for Apple?
00:33:07.279 --> 00:33:08.640
I'm not really sure that I get it.
00:33:08.720 --> 00:33:11.359
Um, but this is why I'm not the CEO of Apple, I suppose.
00:33:11.519 --> 00:33:13.200
This is who I staked my net worth on.
00:33:13.359 --> 00:33:15.920
Obviously, the sort of only bet over the last year was NVIDIA.
00:33:16.559 --> 00:33:18.799
Um and um, you know, it's obvious now.
00:33:18.960 --> 00:33:20.880
There's not a damn thing to smile about either.
00:33:21.119 --> 00:33:22.240
Very few people did it.
00:33:22.400 --> 00:33:32.480
Um, this is sort of also, you know, a classic debate I and a friend had with another colleague of ours, where this colleague was really into TSM, you know, TSMC, and he was just kind of like, well, you know, like these fabs are gonna be so valuable.
00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:35.359
And also, like NVIDIA, there's just a lot of idiosyncratic risk, right?
00:33:35.440 --> 00:33:37.279
It's like maybe somebody else makes better GPUs.
00:33:37.519 --> 00:33:41.039
And that was basically right, but sort of only NVIDIA had the AI beta, right?
00:33:41.119 --> 00:33:52.880
Because only Shaw's tweet wouldn't wouldn't kill, is all I'll say.
00:33:53.119 --> 00:33:56.880
Like it wouldn't, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for him to tweet about Shaw's.
00:34:09.599 --> 00:34:12.159
When Shaw's gets the anthropic deal and it goes down.
00:34:20.880 --> 00:34:21.760
I'll see you tomorrow.
00:34:21.920 --> 00:34:22.880
FOMC tonight.
00:34:23.039 --> 00:34:24.000
Good fucking luck, man.
00:34:24.079 --> 00:34:25.840
I'll be in in in our telegram.
00:34:26.239 --> 00:34:28.079
Um you already know what I'll be in the pit.
00:34:28.159 --> 00:34:29.360
I'll be in the fucking pit.
00:34:29.840 --> 00:34:32.719
Ah, well I'll catch you when I get you.
00:34:32.800 --> 00:34:33.519
I'll see you when I get you.
00:34:34.159 --> 00:34:35.280
Have a great rest of your day.
00:34:36.079 --> 00:34:38.960
Last stream of the week, tomorrow that I'm gone for fucking like a year.
00:34:39.360 --> 00:34:40.400
I love you, motherfuckers.
00:34:40.719 --> 00:34:41.599
Sorry about the rug.
00:00:05.759 --> 00:00:06.799
Welcome back to the stream.
00:00:06.879 --> 00:00:07.759
Welcome back to the stream.
00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:10.880
Sometimes you wake up, you get a little pissed off, little things that get you going.
00:00:11.039 --> 00:00:12.080
You gotta just find it, dude.
00:00:12.160 --> 00:00:15.359
You gotta snap out of it, you gotta just fucking find it, dude.
00:00:15.439 --> 00:00:16.079
You gotta find it.
00:00:16.160 --> 00:00:17.839
I got the nicest suit on you've ever seen.
00:00:17.920 --> 00:00:18.879
There's a lot going on.
00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:22.879
It's good to see your beautiful faces back in the stream.
00:00:22.960 --> 00:00:24.719
It is 8 41 a.m.
00:00:25.039 --> 00:00:27.839
EST in the great state of New York City.
00:00:28.000 --> 00:00:28.800
We have a lot to talk about.
00:00:28.879 --> 00:00:31.839
It's FOMC today, which I'm not gonna be live for.
00:00:31.920 --> 00:00:34.560
I think it's at 3 o'clock.
00:00:34.719 --> 00:00:37.679
I think it's 3 o'clock um PM EST.
00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:47.119
And the prediction is that we are gonna get nothing, but there's a reasonable 30-ish percent give or take that we get hikes.
00:00:47.200 --> 00:00:49.200
If we get hikes, we're getting sent to the shadow realm.
00:00:49.359 --> 00:00:52.399
If we get nothing, we're probably so back, and they're not gonna cut.
00:00:52.560 --> 00:00:57.840
So Wars's second F O M C it's an exciting one, it's an interesting one, it's kind of a scary one.
00:00:58.000 --> 00:01:01.679
At the same time, SK Heinex missed yesterday.
00:01:01.920 --> 00:01:05.760
They had incredible earnings, but they missed devious expectations.
00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:08.400
And DRAM got sent to the shadow realm, dude.
00:01:08.560 --> 00:01:14.640
4285 was bottom tick on DRAM, which is just disgusting, bro.
00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:15.840
Disgusting.
00:01:16.000 --> 00:01:24.400
They sent that thing to fucking that bottom tick on DRAM, bro, is minus 48%, which is gross.
00:01:24.560 --> 00:01:25.680
That is scary, man.
00:01:25.840 --> 00:01:27.840
48% down is gross.
00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:32.799
And the cos B was down, I don't know what it was down six percent, dude.
00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:38.079
Our Korean brothers are doing some wild shit to the charts over there.
00:01:38.239 --> 00:01:39.760
We have Gary V to talk about.
00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:43.200
We have this fucking pipe dog coin, which is insane.
00:01:43.359 --> 00:01:44.719
We got that to talk about.
00:01:44.959 --> 00:01:47.599
We have this, I don't know, we got a lot, man.
00:01:47.680 --> 00:01:49.040
We have is good.
00:01:49.120 --> 00:01:50.959
Okay, I had this realization the other day.
00:01:51.040 --> 00:01:59.280
How how how have we gotten to a place where the only people that can afford advertising on products that I use are dating apps and gambling platforms?
00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:02.159
You don't see ads for any for normal stuff anymore, ever.
00:02:02.480 --> 00:02:09.599
You don't see ads for like a water gun or like a blaster or like a Lego set.
00:02:09.759 --> 00:02:17.439
You don't see advertisements for products, you don't see advertisements for anything anymore except for gambling and dating apps.
00:02:17.520 --> 00:02:19.680
It is like overwhelmed my feet.
00:02:19.759 --> 00:02:20.879
I've never chat.
00:02:21.039 --> 00:02:21.840
Yes or no?
00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:25.759
Have you seen an ad for icy box watch slots?
00:02:25.919 --> 00:02:30.319
I mean, they're spending more money on marketing than any ad I've ever seen in my entire life, these guys.
00:02:30.479 --> 00:02:31.520
Have you seen this or no?
00:02:31.680 --> 00:02:33.120
Surely you've seen this.
00:02:33.280 --> 00:02:34.159
It's nuts.
00:02:34.319 --> 00:02:37.840
It has it has absolutely taken over my phone.
00:02:38.000 --> 00:02:40.000
I don't see ads for anything else.
00:02:40.159 --> 00:02:41.280
There's nothing else.
00:02:41.680 --> 00:02:45.360
Terrifying, you want to get black pilled real pick real quick?
00:02:45.680 --> 00:02:53.520
Black pilling headline just came out today that 2025 is the first time on record that marijuana is the most popular daily addictive product.
00:02:53.680 --> 00:02:55.280
This is insanely black pilling.
00:02:55.360 --> 00:03:01.280
If you understand the implications that there's almost no room for hope, it must be so tragic to be a teenager now.
00:03:01.599 --> 00:03:06.879
More Americans now use marijuana daily than drink or smoke.
00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:08.639
That is terrifying.
00:03:08.960 --> 00:03:10.080
I'm so serious.
00:03:10.159 --> 00:03:11.039
I need a chart.
00:03:11.199 --> 00:03:17.840
Somebody from the data team overlay, the downfall of like birth, birth rate, that's the word I was looking for.
00:03:18.080 --> 00:03:22.240
Birth rate in the US with the uptick of marijuana consumption in the US.
00:03:22.400 --> 00:03:22.879
100%.
00:03:23.280 --> 00:03:27.919
I guarantee I guarantee it is the it is one-to-one overlaid.
00:03:28.000 --> 00:03:31.919
I think if everybody cut the weed for the for the wine, I hate to agree with Shamath.
00:03:32.000 --> 00:03:34.800
I really, really, really hate to agree with Shamath.
00:03:34.879 --> 00:03:41.520
But if everybody cut the bud for the wine, I think, I think great improvements across the world, like incredible improvements across the world.
00:03:41.680 --> 00:03:42.400
I saw this tweet.
00:03:42.479 --> 00:03:47.840
I think this is arguably the greatest short form video that is ever I've ever watched on social media.
00:03:48.000 --> 00:03:50.000
It might be the greatest short form video I've ever watched.
00:03:50.080 --> 00:03:54.719
It has nothing to do with anything we have to cover today, other than the fact that I I wish I made this.
00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:55.759
It's okay.
00:03:55.840 --> 00:03:56.479
Let's see what we got.
00:03:56.639 --> 00:03:57.919
Haven't smiled since Trump coin.
00:03:58.000 --> 00:03:58.960
I know, bro.
00:03:59.280 --> 00:04:00.719
Okay, let's see what we got here.
00:04:01.039 --> 00:04:04.960
First one we got is uh Bernie Madoff.
00:04:05.199 --> 00:04:05.680
Pretty good.
00:04:05.840 --> 00:04:06.000
Yeah.
00:04:06.560 --> 00:04:07.199
That's in the 80s, too.
00:04:07.280 --> 00:04:07.520
That's good.
00:04:07.759 --> 00:04:08.000
Yeah, yeah.
00:04:08.080 --> 00:04:09.599
I've I've seen a few of these around before.
00:04:09.759 --> 00:04:10.400
Up next.
00:04:11.520 --> 00:04:13.520
Solid Sam Bankman freed here.
00:04:13.680 --> 00:04:14.080
That's nice.
00:04:14.719 --> 00:04:15.919
That's really nice.
00:04:16.160 --> 00:04:17.439
What's this made out of?
00:04:17.680 --> 00:04:19.199
I think he made it a balsa wood.
00:04:19.279 --> 00:04:20.079
Is this balsa wood?
00:04:20.240 --> 00:04:20.480
Alright.
00:04:20.879 --> 00:04:21.839
That's good.
00:04:24.399 --> 00:04:25.040
Wow.
00:04:25.279 --> 00:04:27.439
This is a this is a vintage Zuckerberg.
00:04:27.759 --> 00:04:28.000
O5?
00:04:28.319 --> 00:04:30.079
This is a vintage O5 Zuckerberg.
00:04:30.160 --> 00:04:31.439
Let's just check the back really quick.
00:04:31.759 --> 00:04:32.079
Yeah.
00:04:32.480 --> 00:04:33.120
There it is.
00:04:33.279 --> 00:04:35.120
That is a patch from his fruit of the loom.
00:04:35.439 --> 00:04:36.240
Boxer briefs.
00:04:36.399 --> 00:04:37.680
You can tell by the smell.
00:04:39.120 --> 00:04:39.839
Yeah, that's it.
00:04:40.079 --> 00:04:41.120
Onion, hand cream.
00:04:41.600 --> 00:04:43.040
Um so that's great.
00:04:43.120 --> 00:04:43.920
We should sleeve this one.
00:04:44.000 --> 00:04:44.240
Yeah, yeah.
00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:45.439
Alright, up next.
00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:46.560
Ooh, okay.
00:04:46.720 --> 00:04:46.879
Nice.
00:04:47.120 --> 00:04:47.920
Elizabeth Holmes.
00:04:48.079 --> 00:04:49.519
We do have two, I believe.
00:04:49.680 --> 00:04:54.079
We have two, but a triple Holmes is what every good collector has got in their arsenals.
00:04:54.319 --> 00:04:55.040
Alright, we have one left left.
00:04:55.680 --> 00:04:56.160
One card left.
00:04:56.319 --> 00:04:58.160
Three, two, one.
00:04:58.800 --> 00:05:01.759
Oh my god! Oh my god! Oh my god! Oh my god.
00:05:03.279 --> 00:05:03.920
Oh my god.
00:05:04.079 --> 00:05:04.879
It's a holographic.
00:05:05.600 --> 00:05:06.000
There it is.
00:05:06.399 --> 00:05:10.720
That's a genuine holographic his moniker in the corner.
00:05:10.959 --> 00:05:16.399
Straight off of the island with this leave it and um you know what this will go great with?
00:05:16.480 --> 00:05:17.839
Um put this with the Gates collection.
00:05:18.000 --> 00:05:18.800
It's so good.
00:05:18.959 --> 00:05:19.600
This is not.
00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:20.399
This is real.
00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:22.160
Netanyahu will meet with U.S.
00:05:22.160 --> 00:05:24.959
Secretary of Defense Pete Heggsath is just unbelievable.
00:05:25.120 --> 00:05:31.600
By the way, on life support, Trump is coming out and he's tweeting shit like this.
00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:33.360
We'll be hitting Iran hard.
00:05:33.600 --> 00:05:37.680
Talking tweeting about Fauci and hitting Iran, which is unbelievable.
00:05:38.079 --> 00:05:38.959
We'll hit them hard.
00:05:39.120 --> 00:05:41.519
He vowed a forceful response after U.S.
00:05:41.600 --> 00:05:48.000
forces interpreted intercepted an Iranian missile attack in Jordan, saying we're gonna beat the effing shit out of them and we'll be hitting them hard.
00:05:48.160 --> 00:05:50.319
We'll be beating the fucking shit out of them, is what he said.
00:05:50.399 --> 00:05:51.920
We're gonna beat the fucking shit out of them.
00:05:52.240 --> 00:05:54.319
That is where we're at with war.
00:05:54.639 --> 00:06:01.199
Gary V went on TV PN and I actually think he had some really good takes that kind of fired me up.
00:06:01.360 --> 00:06:03.920
Um, now does he repurpose a lot of my takes?
00:06:04.000 --> 00:06:06.639
He does, but he had some good takes that kind of fired me up.
00:06:06.879 --> 00:06:11.920
I believe collectibles have eaten up the pop culture energy of what young 20-year-olds would do with public stocks.
00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:17.120
So instead of buying 50 shares of Nike like my generation did, they're gonna go buy a collectible.
00:06:17.199 --> 00:06:20.160
I think it's I don't know if I fully agree with that, by the way.
00:06:20.240 --> 00:06:21.920
Uh meme coins have done this as well.
00:06:22.240 --> 00:06:24.480
Completely eaten up the oxygen of contemporary art.
00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:28.319
Especially after your nice chat, you'll buy an art like physical.
00:06:28.639 --> 00:06:32.639
Has anyone here spent more than a thousand dollars on physical art in the last year?
00:06:32.879 --> 00:06:33.519
I have not.
00:06:33.680 --> 00:06:35.920
I kind of want to, but it's really it's hard to buy.
00:06:36.079 --> 00:06:36.560
I don't know.
00:06:36.639 --> 00:06:40.000
It's different artists, it it finds it hard to feel any level of attachment.
00:06:40.079 --> 00:06:44.079
Like I feel like when people were buying Pollux in like warholes, there was like a couple hundred artists.
00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:56.319
Now there's like infinite transactions, like you know, continue to hang around people of wealth at a young age, your contemporaries, people in their 30s, 40s, 50s, only 25 years ago, 30 years ago, are buying the hottest contemporary artist to put the art in the house.
00:06:56.480 --> 00:06:59.759
Much of that money is now going into hundred thousand dollar, million dollar collectibles.
00:07:00.000 --> 00:07:07.600
Obviously, Michael Rubin sitting on the top of the top's empire with all his cultural relevance, has brought an incredible amount of pop culture energy to it.
00:07:08.000 --> 00:07:12.000
And kids, people forget trading cards are 100 years of collectability now.
00:07:12.160 --> 00:07:16.000
This has been a very long-term asset class, but the numbers are just out of control.
00:07:16.560 --> 00:07:22.879
You know this, even for you guys that are young, definitely people of my generation, people that collected cards as teenagers in the 80s and 90s were nerdy.
00:07:23.040 --> 00:07:29.439
People collecting cards are now cool, and once that happens, it gets really different really fast, and we're on that other side.
00:07:30.560 --> 00:07:33.839
I mean, bro, my start to NF to crypto was sports cards.
00:07:33.920 --> 00:07:42.160
I'm pretty, I'm a pretty, I'm pretty pilled on the sports cardification, like the physical cardification of the world.
00:07:42.319 --> 00:07:43.759
I think it's uh it's a pretty big deal.
00:07:43.839 --> 00:07:44.959
There's one more Gary V clip.
00:07:45.040 --> 00:07:47.600
I think it in a lot of ways replaces physical art.
00:07:47.759 --> 00:07:49.199
I I don't hate that take.
00:07:49.360 --> 00:07:52.480
I think it physical, uh I think it replaces physical art.
00:07:52.720 --> 00:07:56.319
But but I want I I don't want to put a Pokemon card on my wall.
00:07:56.560 --> 00:07:57.279
No, sir.
00:07:57.519 --> 00:07:59.439
I want to put some physical art on my wall, so I don't know.
00:07:59.519 --> 00:08:00.319
But I got nothing here.
00:08:00.399 --> 00:08:01.839
I this room has nothing in it.
00:08:02.000 --> 00:08:04.160
I just bought an art piece actually, if you want to see it.
00:08:04.399 --> 00:08:06.720
I spent$400 on this thing, and I I don't even know.
00:08:06.800 --> 00:08:07.360
Should I open it?
00:08:07.439 --> 00:08:07.920
Should I open it?
00:08:08.000 --> 00:08:09.120
Wait, do you want to see it right now?
00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:10.079
It's pretty cool.
00:08:10.639 --> 00:08:12.079
I spent$400 on it.
00:08:12.160 --> 00:08:12.800
Maybe a little bit less.
00:08:12.959 --> 00:08:14.079
Okay, wait, let me show you what I bought.
00:08:14.160 --> 00:08:15.120
It's pretty sick, actually.
00:08:15.199 --> 00:08:16.639
I've been sitting here for like three weeks.
00:08:16.879 --> 00:08:18.319
Because I don't know how to get it framed.
00:08:18.480 --> 00:08:19.360
Look, it's pretty cool.
00:08:19.519 --> 00:08:21.199
Like, wow, like it's cool.
00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:22.319
Nothing crazy.
00:08:22.480 --> 00:08:23.519
It's it's it's cool.
00:08:23.600 --> 00:08:24.160
It's cool.
00:08:24.399 --> 00:08:24.879
It's cool.
00:08:24.959 --> 00:08:26.480
It's like New York City shit.
00:08:26.639 --> 00:08:27.600
Like, it's not bad.
00:08:27.920 --> 00:08:29.279
Yeah, it's like an ice piece.
00:08:29.759 --> 00:08:31.040
Yeah, but it's$400.
00:08:31.519 --> 00:08:36.879
And you know, the thing about buying a$400 art piece is like, how am I gonna tell them no?
00:08:37.039 --> 00:08:39.039
How am I gonna tell them it's not worth that?
00:08:39.200 --> 00:08:44.960
Like, no, this artist actually goes for like$150 for a 12 by 12.
00:08:45.279 --> 00:08:46.799
Like how I have no idea.
00:08:46.960 --> 00:08:48.080
It's a stock axe.
00:08:48.159 --> 00:08:50.960
Like, how am I gonna how am I gonna tell them what it's worth?
00:08:51.039 --> 00:08:51.600
I have no clue.
00:08:51.679 --> 00:08:52.960
You could print one of those pictures from$2.
00:08:53.360 --> 00:08:54.480
This is my problem with with the art.
00:08:54.559 --> 00:08:57.200
It is, it's my problem, but it's pretty fire.
00:08:57.279 --> 00:08:59.279
And so here's one more Gary V take.
00:08:59.519 --> 00:09:04.399
Um, people are yearning for more real life, run clubs, hiking tours, ski, instructing.
00:09:04.480 --> 00:09:16.639
It's just so clear to me the explosion of analog 2036 is going to feel like 2065, and because of that, the opportunity is to build businesses that feel like 1965.
00:09:16.720 --> 00:09:17.840
And I saw this tweet, it was nuts.
00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:19.759
Lucy Hampton card shop at this tweet.
00:09:20.000 --> 00:09:23.840
Um, this is the most unconventional yet fascinating business ever.
00:09:24.000 --> 00:09:25.120
Malcolm, you know about this.
00:09:25.279 --> 00:09:28.080
It's the old friend, it's called Old Friend Photo Booth.
00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:29.200
Recently blew up in New York.
00:09:29.440 --> 00:09:32.960
Tens of millions of views on socials, featured by NBC, always aligned around the block.
00:09:33.039 --> 00:09:37.440
What it is, they have two locations in New York where you pay eight dollars for a photo strip.
00:09:37.600 --> 00:09:38.320
Eight bucks.
00:09:38.399 --> 00:09:42.080
I'm guessing they go through 400 to 600 strips per day per location.
00:09:42.159 --> 00:09:46.159
I think it's more 5k a day or 100k a month from a tiny photo booth costs.
00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:50.320
A vintage photo booth is probably 20k, and rent is probably 5k a month.
00:09:50.480 --> 00:09:53.200
So these things are printing more than 1 million dollars a year.
00:09:53.360 --> 00:09:54.879
Why are we building software again?
00:09:54.960 --> 00:09:55.519
Have you seen this?
00:09:55.600 --> 00:09:58.480
I dude, I've I have heard about this like infinite times.
00:09:58.559 --> 00:10:01.919
Like we're going to the photo booth, we're going to the photo booth, we're going to the photo booth.
00:10:02.080 --> 00:10:09.759
The real problem with longing IRL that I've realized after StubHub, and my girl spent a line, an hour in line for this.
00:10:10.000 --> 00:10:10.480
Yes.
00:10:10.879 --> 00:10:16.159
Real problem I have uncovered with longing IRL as I've been so correct.
00:10:16.320 --> 00:10:17.679
Like I sniped this shit.
00:10:17.759 --> 00:10:19.200
Was I the first person to talk about it?
00:10:19.360 --> 00:10:19.679
No.
00:10:19.919 --> 00:10:24.399
But I undisputedly have sniped this six months ago.
00:10:24.480 --> 00:10:26.000
I'm talking about this every day.
00:10:26.159 --> 00:10:28.960
The second I moved to New York, that was basically the insight.
00:10:29.039 --> 00:10:34.559
The second I touched down JFK in New York City, I'm like, oh yeah, long IRL.
00:10:34.720 --> 00:10:35.360
Absolutely.
00:10:35.600 --> 00:10:36.799
I snipe this shit.
00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:41.840
Problem is it's fragmented into all of these like niche experiences.
00:10:42.000 --> 00:10:43.679
That like what am I gonna open?
00:10:43.759 --> 00:10:44.879
A photo booth company?
00:10:45.120 --> 00:10:46.080
No, there's no way.
00:10:46.159 --> 00:10:47.440
I can't open a photo booth company.
00:10:47.519 --> 00:10:51.919
Like, you know what, you know what I think's gonna go crazy this decade is like drive-in movie theaters.
00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:56.480
But how do how how do I open a 10x long on a drive-in movie theater?
00:10:56.639 --> 00:10:57.519
It's not happening.
00:10:57.679 --> 00:10:58.879
Like, okay, carnivals.
00:10:59.039 --> 00:11:00.720
How do I how do I long carnivals?
00:11:01.200 --> 00:11:01.759
Not happening.
00:11:01.919 --> 00:11:05.360
Diners, vintage diners, but is that a good business?
00:11:05.679 --> 00:11:06.000
No.
00:11:06.240 --> 00:11:09.039
Then you're just like, I don't know, I'm just gonna build a data center, bro.
00:11:09.120 --> 00:11:10.480
Like, I'm just gonna long it.
00:11:10.720 --> 00:11:14.960
Like, you just you just get away from it because the the economics don't make a lot of sense.
00:11:15.200 --> 00:11:16.000
So I don't know.
00:11:16.080 --> 00:11:20.000
You could I could open a sh a suit shop, it's possible, but I don't know.
00:11:20.159 --> 00:11:26.399
So let's talk about longing motorcycles since the generation is ripping the burbs up on those electric bikes.
00:11:26.720 --> 00:11:29.120
That would have been a crazy trade, by the way.
00:11:29.200 --> 00:11:31.279
My home, I'll tell you the story real quick.
00:11:31.600 --> 00:11:35.200
Is I grew up in like a suburb ass neighborhood, right?
00:11:35.279 --> 00:11:40.639
And my parents still my parents like still live around there, and they have the Facebook mom's chat, you know.
00:11:40.720 --> 00:11:42.799
You guys know about the Facebook mom's chat, obviously.
00:11:43.039 --> 00:11:59.840
And the Facebook mom's chat has been in utter shambles for like four years because of the kids ripping the electric bikes up and down the roads, like they're fucking terrorizing my neighborhood on these bikes, and they've been doing it for five, six years nonstop.
00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:09.919
And they age out and they go to college, and then their little brother takes over, and they're whipping up and down the street on these like electric bikes, and people have lost their fucking mind.
00:12:10.159 --> 00:12:11.120
So I don't know.
00:12:11.360 --> 00:12:11.919
Interesting.
00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:16.000
Does anyone have a take from me on what the fuck this is, man?
00:12:16.159 --> 00:12:17.200
I'll tell you one thing.
00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:32.159
I'm laying in bed last night and I'm thinking about it, and I'm in this chat with Frank, and Frank made this comment, and he was like, Bro, every person that has ever traded crypto in their entire life is on their knees right now, praying for this thing to go to zero.
00:12:32.399 --> 00:12:37.120
Like, so many people would be so happy if this thing went to zero.
00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:39.279
Because it was one of those coins.
00:12:39.360 --> 00:12:46.480
If you wake up in the middle of the night and this thing is like 150 mil, you are just like, you don't even know what to say to yourself.
00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:51.200
Like the entire chain, I'm laying in bed and I'm like, I'm crossing myself.
00:12:51.279 --> 00:12:57.279
I'm like, God, you know, in Jesus' name, like send this fucking thing to zero, man.
00:12:57.759 --> 00:13:06.000
Um, the craziest part about this coin to me, by the way, is I wish I could come here and do the whole like there's opportunities every day in crypto.
00:13:06.720 --> 00:13:12.000
The craziest part about this coin is that it's spent 24 hours, maybe a little bit long, maybe a little bit less.
00:13:12.159 --> 00:13:15.600
If I recall correctly, it launched while I was on stream with Ansom.
00:13:15.919 --> 00:13:22.559
Because, bro, I'm interviewing Ansom and I'm like looking at my Telegram and my chats are firing, and everyone's like, What is this?
00:13:22.639 --> 00:13:23.039
What is this?
00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:23.919
What is this?
00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:30.320
Everyone's throwing out like random founder names, like, oh, I heard so-and-so is involved, I heard so-and-so is involved, I heard so-and-so is involved.
00:13:30.399 --> 00:13:37.360
No one has any fucking idea, no one has any clue, and it's moving like it's moving like boom, bro.
00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:44.799
No one has a single clue in the world, and then you wake up the next day, it's at 44 mil, and nobody has leaked anything.
00:13:45.039 --> 00:13:46.159
Is wild to me.
00:13:46.399 --> 00:13:49.759
As always, stock market open is powered by Phantom.
00:13:49.840 --> 00:14:04.639
It is powered by Phantom because anything you want you see during this segment, anything you want to trade, whether it's a stock, whether it's a tokenized stock, whether it's a coin, whether it's an alt, whether it's a crypto major, whether you want to sell any of it and put it in his tables, you can do it with Phantom.
00:14:04.720 --> 00:14:08.159
And the stock market is officially open.
00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:09.120
Let's fucking go.
00:14:09.200 --> 00:14:09.919
Let's fucking go.
00:14:10.080 --> 00:14:11.600
Let us fucking go.
00:14:11.679 --> 00:14:17.440
It might be kind of slow on the way up to F FOMC because people want to don't want to do anything, but we'll see.
00:14:17.600 --> 00:14:18.559
Um, let's go.
00:14:18.639 --> 00:14:21.440
The SPX opens down 0.2%.
00:14:22.320 --> 00:14:27.840
The NASDAQ 100 opening with a green candle 27797.8.
00:14:28.080 --> 00:14:30.159
It is up 0.67.
00:14:30.799 --> 00:14:34.799
The Dow is down a full percent, but who really cares?
00:14:34.960 --> 00:14:41.840
The cosby on yesterday's trading session was down six percent, which is that might can hear everything.
00:14:42.000 --> 00:14:43.679
Um, cosby down six percent yesterday.
00:14:43.759 --> 00:14:44.320
It's disgusting.
00:14:44.559 --> 00:14:48.080
We'll take a deeper dive into that in a little bit here.
00:14:48.320 --> 00:14:52.080
Five now down 0.2, the Russell low cap 2000 is flat.
00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:59.120
The Qs are down 0.16, the socks is down 0.92, the Soxel they're drilling it, man.
00:14:59.279 --> 00:15:01.679
Uh 106.52.
00:15:01.919 --> 00:15:03.759
That's down about three percent.
00:15:04.000 --> 00:15:05.759
The IGV is green.
00:15:05.919 --> 00:15:07.440
Frank, what's your IGV take?
00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:13.519
That is up 0.65, mags are down 0.3, and DRAM is flat.
00:15:13.679 --> 00:15:15.039
It looks very uneventful today.
00:15:15.120 --> 00:15:18.559
I'm not sure how much time we're gonna spend on uh on market open.
00:15:18.720 --> 00:15:21.440
Um, all right, crypto on open, not great.
00:15:21.600 --> 00:15:23.840
Bitcoin 64, 137.
00:15:24.320 --> 00:15:26.879
They're trying to send IGV, but let's stop them, bro.
00:15:27.919 --> 00:15:32.480
1900 on ETH Pump 1868, Shaw's 44.
00:15:32.720 --> 00:15:42.159
Gross Perd down 1.3, silver 57 flat soul 73, stretch flat 88, bond yields candling across the board.
00:15:42.399 --> 00:15:59.440
The VIX that is up five gold that is 4k and flat copper 637 flat Zcash 463 and going up on open oil 84 on crude.
00:15:59.600 --> 00:16:05.120
That's up 6.3 percent Brent oil 91759.
00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:10.320
We have a problem on our hands, and it does not seem to be going away.
00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:11.919
Also, YouTube, Twitter.
00:16:12.000 --> 00:16:16.480
If you would like to chat, twitch.tv slash thread guy.
00:16:16.639 --> 00:16:20.159
All right, um, Palantir and defense are all flat.
00:16:20.320 --> 00:16:21.919
Nasty candle on Palantir.
00:16:22.159 --> 00:16:23.360
Here's where it counts.
00:16:23.600 --> 00:16:29.120
Okay, big AI, semis, hyperscalers, mags, a little bit of everything.
00:16:29.360 --> 00:16:34.879
Biggest gainers, bloom energy 177, but it just took out pre-market lows.
00:16:34.960 --> 00:16:36.240
How do you know so much up 24?
00:16:36.320 --> 00:16:38.639
The the the the the question, the real answer is I don't.
00:16:38.799 --> 00:16:40.559
Snowflake, that's up six percent.
00:16:40.639 --> 00:16:42.879
They're trying to send IGV and let's not let them.
00:16:42.960 --> 00:16:46.240
Cloudflare is up three, micron is up two and a half, it's at 840.
00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:49.039
Wow, it hit lows of 770, brother.
00:16:49.200 --> 00:16:54.240
ASTS up two sand disk back over 1100.
00:16:54.399 --> 00:16:55.360
That's up one percent.
00:16:55.519 --> 00:16:58.480
Blackberry is up two percent, skinex adr.
00:16:58.559 --> 00:17:00.240
That's up two percent.
00:17:00.399 --> 00:17:01.519
It's 131.
00:17:01.600 --> 00:17:04.079
It hit a pre-market low of 118.
00:17:04.720 --> 00:17:13.119
Um, Salesforce is up two, Intel 87, Marvell is up one, Adobe's up one, Netflix was getting crushed, it's back to flat.
00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:22.079
Um, Google is flat, IBM is flat, biggest losers, RoboStrategy down six percent, Cerebrus 187.
00:17:22.559 --> 00:17:24.640
Shaws is 44.
00:17:24.880 --> 00:17:27.119
I'm not gonna lie, I got smoked on this.
00:17:27.680 --> 00:17:33.680
I got like legitimately smoked on Shaws for honestly, for no reason, like straight up.
00:17:34.000 --> 00:17:34.960
Pump is pumping.
00:17:35.279 --> 00:17:36.319
I guess, dude.
00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:38.000
What I mean, is it?
00:17:38.480 --> 00:17:42.720
I guess flies down two, space X is 114.
00:17:42.799 --> 00:17:44.079
Did you talk about Pipe Dog already?
00:17:44.160 --> 00:17:45.599
There's not that much to say, dude.
00:17:45.759 --> 00:17:48.000
There's not that much to say about Pipe Dog.
00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:58.240
Rocket Lab is down one, no keys at 1.3, Amazon basically flat, NVIDIA flat at 196, Microsoft flat at 391, Tesla flat at 305.
00:17:58.880 --> 00:18:00.720
God damn, Tesla.
00:18:00.960 --> 00:18:01.519
Fuck.
00:18:01.759 --> 00:18:02.799
Look at this.
00:18:03.039 --> 00:18:09.359
The bit is that Elon wants Tesla to get as cheap as possible so we can acquire it for as low as possible.
00:18:09.519 --> 00:18:16.319
And spay, but the problem is in order for that to work, you want SpaceX to be as high as possible, and that isn't exactly working.
00:18:16.559 --> 00:18:18.880
Meta is flat, AMD is flat.
00:18:19.119 --> 00:18:20.960
Gloom energy though is 186.
00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:21.759
That's moving a lot.
00:18:21.920 --> 00:18:25.200
Slow day, I suppose, until you get full MC today.
00:18:25.519 --> 00:18:28.960
It feels like there's no real nothing's really moving either.
00:18:29.039 --> 00:18:30.240
Like it feels like there's no volume.
00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:32.000
Um, Bitcoin 62.2.
00:18:32.640 --> 00:18:36.400
Um, yeah, there's it's not any crazy movement.
00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:38.799
Maybe that's for the better after the couple days we've been through.
00:18:39.039 --> 00:18:49.839
Soxil flips green, DRAM flips green, the socks flips green, hues flip green, spy is about to flip green, Nasdaq is green, Dow is down 0.8.
00:18:50.160 --> 00:18:54.720
Okay, some of our consumer SaaS, everything in between.
00:18:54.960 --> 00:18:58.880
We get Reddit 185, that's up four, Zay is up four.
00:18:58.960 --> 00:19:07.599
Um, Unity is up two, butterfly is up three, Snapchat's up two, Doordash up one, stub up 0.35, MSTR is 97, about to reclaim 100.
00:19:07.680 --> 00:19:08.880
Coinbase is green, nice.
00:19:09.039 --> 00:19:11.359
Take two interactive wavy 80.
00:19:11.440 --> 00:19:12.880
Look at that 248.
00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:13.519
How about that?
00:19:13.680 --> 00:19:16.000
Roblox is flat, hood is flat.
00:19:16.079 --> 00:19:22.400
They have earnings today, WCF flat, PayPal flat AMC 266.
00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:24.880
I'm gonna fucking just quit all this shit.
00:19:25.039 --> 00:19:30.160
Shopify's down one, Uber's down one, GME's down one, core we've done two and a half.
00:19:30.319 --> 00:19:32.799
Nebbius is 165.
00:19:33.359 --> 00:19:34.400
God damn.
00:19:34.720 --> 00:19:39.519
Last time it was at this price, it proceeded to pull a 90% move in about a week.
00:19:39.680 --> 00:19:40.720
Nebbius looks terrible.
00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:43.200
Him's 28, it's down a couple percent.
00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:46.880
Everything is kind of just slow, boring, gay.
00:19:46.960 --> 00:19:48.799
Here's FOMC right now.
00:19:48.960 --> 00:19:51.119
Um, not exactly what you would like to see.
00:19:51.279 --> 00:19:57.200
So, for the Fed decision in July, and I mean, look, I know you can look on the CME probabilities as well.
00:19:57.279 --> 00:19:59.279
There's 130 million dollars bet on this, though.
00:19:59.359 --> 00:20:01.599
There's a lot of money in the line on this on this market.
00:20:01.759 --> 00:20:02.400
Okay, ready?
00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:03.039
Listen to this.
00:20:03.119 --> 00:20:05.200
This is actually I forgot about this tweet.
00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:06.240
Yes, okay.
00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:08.960
It didn't matter last FOMC, but it actually matters now.
00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:10.799
All right, ready for years now.
00:20:10.960 --> 00:20:15.200
The actual rate change announced at every FOMC meeting did not matter.
00:20:15.359 --> 00:20:20.720
By the time the meeting occurred, the move was priced into the sofa curve weeks in advance.
00:20:20.880 --> 00:20:27.440
The only exception to this was in September 2024 when Powell surprised the rates market and cut 50 bips.
00:20:27.759 --> 00:20:34.480
This was one of the only times where we went into a meeting with 50-50 odds priced into the market, either 25 bips or 50 bips.
00:20:34.640 --> 00:20:42.400
This meant that the market reaction was largely driven by the change in pricing once it was announced, not the future reaction function.
00:20:42.559 --> 00:20:46.480
Before the ZARP zero interest rate era, this was the common way to do things.
00:20:46.640 --> 00:20:57.039
However, under Yellen and Powell and pioneered by Bernanke, the Fed mandate was to never surprise the rates market and ensure their move gets priced into markets well ahead of time.
00:20:57.279 --> 00:21:09.279
This is why, for so many years, casual Fed observers would be confused on days when, for example, we would cut rates and the market would sell off, or we held held rates steady and rallied.
00:21:09.440 --> 00:21:17.839
The market reaction function was entirely dependent on forward guidance and forward expectations, not the announced change that day.
00:21:18.079 --> 00:21:26.319
We are now going to enter a regime where what the Fed actually decides to do each meeting will be the marginal market driver again, and that is by design.
00:21:26.559 --> 00:21:28.480
Whoa, I forgot about this.
00:21:28.799 --> 00:21:34.640
In practice, I expect the next few meetings to be priced at 50-50 odds moving forward, and that's by design.
00:21:35.039 --> 00:21:42.880
It's now up to rates speculators to analyze the economic data and come to their own analysis on where rates should be.
00:21:43.119 --> 00:21:46.400
The Fed will not be spelling it out for us any longer.
00:21:46.720 --> 00:21:49.200
Overall, I think this is a good thing.
00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:56.799
Forward guidance was a tool from the ZERP era, pioneered by Renaki, as a way to ease monetary policy without going into negative rates.
00:21:56.960 --> 00:21:59.599
We're no longer in ZERP in a ZERP world, and it was time.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:01.599
Time to change this.
00:22:01.920 --> 00:22:16.079
Unnet, expect higher rate volatility, more sensitivity changes in sofa in the economy, less smoothening of business cycles, and a return to a more to a more pure tailor rule like reaction function.
00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:18.240
This is a big shift, in my opinion.
00:22:18.319 --> 00:22:23.119
In my opinion, a welcome one, despite my podcast being named Forward Guidance.
00:22:23.200 --> 00:22:24.880
What does Taylor rule mean?
00:22:25.039 --> 00:22:35.440
It's a math formula created by economist economist John Taylor in 1993 to help central banks set short-term interest rates based on inflation and economic growth.
00:22:35.519 --> 00:22:40.160
It uses inflation, the output gap, and neutral interest rate to guide monetary policy.
00:22:40.319 --> 00:22:55.119
Okay, so basically, for the last six years, other than one FOMC exception, it has been priced in like weeks in advance, exactly what was gonna happen, almost to a certainty, right?
00:22:55.200 --> 00:22:57.839
Like really, really, really high percentage.
00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:07.200
Because they would issue for like the Fed would issue forward guidance, and they would basically say exactly like that's what forward guidance is, right?
00:23:07.279 --> 00:23:09.920
Like they would tell you exactly what they're gonna do.
00:23:10.240 --> 00:23:20.799
Like, let's see, central bank communication tool uses signal the future path of monetary policy and interest rates, aiming to influence financial decision spending and investments.
00:23:20.960 --> 00:23:26.640
And so they would basically tell you, like, okay, like let's let's let's look at like January 2026.
00:23:26.960 --> 00:23:31.119
I mean, like, okay, like January 27th, it closes at 99.
00:23:31.519 --> 00:23:34.720
By January, yeah, by January 10th, it's like 90.
00:23:35.200 --> 00:23:38.000
A week out, everyone knows it's at 95.
00:23:38.559 --> 00:23:41.440
Dude, it's actually gonna be I've only seen it's gonna be electric again.
00:23:41.599 --> 00:23:43.039
Imagine a surprise cut.
00:23:43.200 --> 00:23:44.240
Oh, chills.
00:23:44.480 --> 00:23:46.960
Because everyone's always asking me what do I think about FWA?
00:23:47.039 --> 00:23:47.839
I'll tell you what I think about it.
00:23:48.000 --> 00:23:48.640
You know what I think?
00:23:48.720 --> 00:23:50.319
I'll read you a tweet that I like about it.
00:23:50.480 --> 00:23:51.039
Here it is.
00:23:51.200 --> 00:23:52.640
What's my theson on FWA?
00:23:52.799 --> 00:23:58.559
Very rarely do we get a new primitive that decentralizes a digital marketplace and allowing anyone to be the buyer or seller.
00:23:58.640 --> 00:24:01.279
Uniswap was the first to do it, decentralizing coin swaps.
00:24:01.440 --> 00:24:04.000
Next was OpenC decentralizing NFT trades.
00:24:04.160 --> 00:24:08.880
After that, prediction markets gotcha's loot boxes to this point have not been decentralized.
00:24:08.960 --> 00:24:10.799
There's the house and the player.
00:24:10.880 --> 00:24:13.440
So I see this as a new primitive with loads of possibilities.
00:24:13.599 --> 00:24:16.559
It's basically the same market cap as other novel altcoin launches.
00:24:16.640 --> 00:24:17.920
I like stockbrokers.
00:24:18.160 --> 00:24:24.720
Um, so for it to be a potentially defining new primitive and dirt cheap, easy for me to try and make some money on it.
00:24:24.880 --> 00:24:26.000
This is my general take.
00:24:26.160 --> 00:24:30.160
The problem is that I hate gotcha, like I'm not a target mark.
00:24:30.240 --> 00:24:34.880
Oh, I actually am a target user, but I'm I the gotcha, I hate the gotcha stuff, like in general.
00:24:34.960 --> 00:24:38.079
Like, I'm not like waking up and like hitting the gotcha minds.
00:24:38.640 --> 00:24:44.400
Okay, and so that puts me in a weird spot as like lead KOL for the gotcha thing.
00:24:44.480 --> 00:24:50.000
That's this makes a difficult situation that I seem to have found myself in.
00:24:50.240 --> 00:24:57.759
Um, but I like I generally mid-curve, not novel thing that brings nothing to the table.
00:24:58.000 --> 00:25:02.319
Like I'm not super good at like buying bad stuff.
00:25:02.640 --> 00:25:08.400
And then I get really like nerd-sniped by new, interesting primitive that I haven't seen before.
00:25:08.480 --> 00:25:12.079
That like really like fucking for better or for worse, like gets me going.
00:25:12.319 --> 00:25:18.000
And so this is one of those things that just like my weird autistic brain just got hooked on.
00:25:18.079 --> 00:25:35.279
All right, and other news um PayPal at earnings and PayPal beat earnings, and it led me to do a little look at the classic PayPal Mafia, which everybody knows about the PayPal Mafia, but I guess I didn't realize how insane the PayPal Mafia is.
00:25:35.359 --> 00:25:36.240
This is this is the lineup.
00:25:36.400 --> 00:25:39.039
Founding team of PayPal, like the OG PayPal squad.
00:25:39.200 --> 00:25:46.720
Number one, Peter Teal, PayPal founder and former CEO, sometimes called the Don of the PayPal Mafia.
00:25:46.799 --> 00:25:55.039
He's the founder of Palantir, a founder of the Founders Fund, one of the most successful VCs ever, and the first outside investor in Facebook.
00:25:55.279 --> 00:26:01.519
In 2025, Teal and Palantir began collaborating with the Department of Government Efficiency Doge for the second Trump administration.
00:26:01.680 --> 00:26:03.279
Number two, Elon Musk.
00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:11.839
Number three, David Sachs, former White House uh AI crypto czar and host of the All In Podcast.
00:26:12.079 --> 00:26:14.559
Number four, is I never heard of this guy in my life.
00:26:14.720 --> 00:26:21.920
Um, Max Max Levchin, founder and CEO of PayPal, or founder and CTO of PayPal, and the CEO of a firm.
00:26:22.079 --> 00:26:24.400
Isn't a firm like a Klarna clone clone?
00:26:24.480 --> 00:26:25.200
What's a firm?
00:26:25.359 --> 00:26:25.759
It is.
00:26:26.000 --> 00:26:30.240
God, what a fucking you should get like karmically punished for working on this.
00:26:30.319 --> 00:26:30.960
I'm sorry.
00:26:31.119 --> 00:26:34.240
This is deserving of like karmic retributions.
00:26:34.559 --> 00:26:37.519
I built I built a uh I made a billion dollars.
00:26:37.599 --> 00:26:38.720
How'd you make a billion dollars?
00:26:38.799 --> 00:26:39.839
I built Klarna.
00:26:40.160 --> 00:26:41.039
It's like, bro.
00:26:41.279 --> 00:26:44.240
Next, Scott Bannister, early advisor and board member at PayPal.
00:26:44.319 --> 00:26:44.640
Is that all?
00:26:44.720 --> 00:26:45.519
He's done nothing else.
00:26:45.839 --> 00:26:46.559
Done nothing else.
00:26:46.720 --> 00:26:47.680
Scott Bannister.
00:26:48.160 --> 00:26:49.200
He's done nothing else.
00:26:49.359 --> 00:26:50.480
No disrespect.
00:26:51.039 --> 00:26:52.160
That's a loose term.
00:26:52.400 --> 00:26:52.720
Oh.
00:26:52.960 --> 00:27:01.759
Later founded Ironport, sold to Cisco for a billion dollars, and became one of the most prolific angel investors in Silicon Valley history, backing Uber, Facebook, Zappos, and others.
00:27:02.000 --> 00:27:02.720
Got it.
00:27:02.960 --> 00:27:03.279
Okay.
00:27:03.599 --> 00:27:09.680
Um next, Roloff Botha, former PayPal CFO who became a partner at the venture firm Sequoia Capital.
00:27:09.920 --> 00:27:10.720
Insane.
00:27:11.119 --> 00:27:15.279
Um, next, Steve Chen, former PayPal engineer who co-founded YouTube.
00:27:15.680 --> 00:27:16.079
Nuts.
00:27:16.400 --> 00:27:20.480
Next, Reed Hoffman, former PayPal CFO who's a partner at Founders Fund.
00:27:20.559 --> 00:27:21.279
No, no, no, sorry.
00:27:21.519 --> 00:27:27.440
Former uh executive vice president who founded LinkedIn was an early investor in Facebook and Aviary.
00:27:27.519 --> 00:27:31.359
He sits on the board of Microsoft and spent too much time with Bill Gates.
00:27:31.920 --> 00:27:36.799
Next, Ken Howry, former PayPal CFO became a partner at Founders Fund and served as the U.S.
00:27:36.960 --> 00:27:41.119
ambassador to Sweden during the first Trump administration, and U.S.
00:27:41.200 --> 00:27:44.000
ambassador to Denmark during the second Trump administration.
00:27:44.160 --> 00:27:47.279
Chad Hurley, former PayPal web designer who co-founded YouTube.
00:27:47.680 --> 00:27:48.319
Eric M.
00:27:48.400 --> 00:27:57.920
Jackson, Jackson, Jackson, who wrote the book The PayPal Wars, became the chief executive off officer of WND Book.
00:27:58.240 --> 00:28:05.200
Dave McClure, former PayPal marketing director who co-founded 500 Global and became a super angel investor for startup companies.
00:28:05.279 --> 00:28:05.599
Okay.
00:28:05.759 --> 00:28:09.039
Andrew McCormick, founding partner at Veylor Ventures.
00:28:09.200 --> 00:28:14.880
Um, Luke Nossick, PayPal co-founder and former vice president of marketing strategy, became a partner at Founders Fund.
00:28:14.960 --> 00:28:15.759
Um, how do you say that?
00:28:15.839 --> 00:28:16.880
How do you say this guy's name?
00:28:17.039 --> 00:28:17.920
Keith Rabboy.
00:28:18.000 --> 00:28:19.680
Rabboy's Keith Rabboy.
00:28:19.759 --> 00:28:20.640
I see this guy all the time.
00:28:20.720 --> 00:28:25.200
Um, former executive PayPal later worked at LinkedIn Square, Culsa Ventures and Founders Fund.
00:28:25.279 --> 00:28:33.119
Um, this guy I feel that's if I know Jack Selby, former vice president of corporate international development, PayPal, co-founded Clarion Capital.
00:28:33.200 --> 00:28:34.480
They're all like in venture now.
00:28:34.720 --> 00:28:42.720
Rabboy, okay, with Peter Teal is the founder of AZVC, formerly Envision AZ fund with which focuses on Arizona.
00:28:42.880 --> 00:28:49.680
Um, Primal Shaw, former product manager at PayPal, who became the founding president of Kiva.org.
00:28:49.839 --> 00:28:50.640
What is that?
00:28:51.119 --> 00:28:52.319
Kiva org.
00:28:52.559 --> 00:28:53.839
Make a loan change a life.
00:28:53.920 --> 00:28:55.759
The first online lending platform.
00:28:55.839 --> 00:28:56.480
That's kind of cool.
00:28:56.720 --> 00:29:00.480
Russell Simmons, former PayPal engineer who co-founded Yelp.
00:29:00.640 --> 00:29:01.519
That's insane.
00:29:01.680 --> 00:29:06.240
Jeremy Stoppelman, former vice president of technology at PayPal who co-founded Yelp.
00:29:06.319 --> 00:29:07.680
Okay, these guys made Yelp.
00:29:07.920 --> 00:29:11.680
Um, wow, this guy's from PayPal.
00:29:11.920 --> 00:29:13.279
This guy launched a coin.
00:29:13.519 --> 00:29:13.920
What?
00:29:14.079 --> 00:29:16.640
This guy launched a coin like three three months ago.
00:29:16.960 --> 00:29:18.319
Hold his coin, Terra.
00:29:18.559 --> 00:29:25.440
Yishin Wong, former engineer, engineering manager at PayPal, who later worked at Facebook, became the CEO of Reddit and founded Terra Formation Inc.
00:29:25.680 --> 00:29:26.640
He launched a coin.
00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:35.279
And then last but not least is Yu Pawn, one of the co-founders of PayPal, and played a role in designing the company's user interface and user experience.
00:29:35.359 --> 00:29:38.880
He later became involved in YouTube and co-founded KiwiCrate.
00:29:39.039 --> 00:29:50.319
So from this, LinkedIn was created, David Sachs was created, Yelp was created, YouTube was created, and the CEO of Reddit, and then a couple other like when Tilde, what is the dialogue?
00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:51.519
Secret Society.
00:29:51.680 --> 00:29:52.160
Wait, wait, wait.
00:29:52.240 --> 00:29:57.519
It's a private invitation-only organization co-founded in 2006 by tech investor Peter Teal and Orin Hoffman.
00:29:57.599 --> 00:29:59.920
It functions as an off-the-record annual retreat.
00:30:00.000 --> 00:30:01.599
I feel like I've seen a movie about this.
00:30:01.839 --> 00:30:07.200
Bringing together global leaders, tech executives, politicians, and academics.
00:30:07.440 --> 00:30:09.759
Dialogue secretary members.
00:30:10.079 --> 00:30:10.400
Leak.
00:30:10.720 --> 00:30:11.680
How did it get leaked?
00:30:11.759 --> 00:30:13.680
Oh, a hacking group leaked it.
00:30:13.920 --> 00:30:14.240
Whoa.
00:30:14.559 --> 00:30:16.160
A bunch of names I've never heard of.
00:30:16.400 --> 00:30:17.279
Scott Besson.
00:30:17.440 --> 00:30:18.559
Greg Brockman.
00:30:18.720 --> 00:30:20.160
A bunch of names I've never heard of.
00:30:20.400 --> 00:30:21.279
Ed Cruz.
00:30:21.440 --> 00:30:22.160
Tim Ferris.
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:23.039
Tim Ferris.
00:30:23.359 --> 00:30:24.400
Reed Hoffman.
00:30:24.640 --> 00:30:24.880
Huh.
00:30:24.960 --> 00:30:26.079
I've never heard of this.
00:30:26.319 --> 00:30:27.279
All right, I'm bored.
00:30:27.519 --> 00:30:28.240
Good video.
00:30:28.480 --> 00:30:30.480
Um, there's no way I'm making it to the end.
00:30:30.559 --> 00:30:31.279
That was fun, though.
00:30:31.359 --> 00:30:32.880
Shout to uh shout to Peter.
00:30:33.200 --> 00:30:38.880
Apple has come out with this new launch, and they are calling it Apple Upgrade.
00:30:39.039 --> 00:30:42.480
Apple Upgrade has officially launched in the US.
00:30:42.640 --> 00:30:58.640
Customers can now lease a range of Apple products on 12, 24, or 36 month terms with monthly payments ranging from$11.99 to$327.21, depending on the device and configuration.
00:30:59.279 --> 00:31:01.200
Everything's a subscription now.
00:31:01.680 --> 00:31:18.319
And so they're offering a subscription to lease an iPhone for$17.99,$11.99 for an Apple Watch,$24.99 for a Mac, and$11.99 for an iPad.
00:31:18.400 --> 00:31:18.720
Okay.
00:31:18.880 --> 00:31:23.359
And my question is in what world do these economics make sense?
00:31:23.519 --> 00:31:26.240
It almost feels like it's too cheap to work.
00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:30.559
You're telling me for$18 a month, I can have an I mean, but how much is an iPhone?
00:31:30.799 --> 00:31:32.559
It's like a thousand dollars.
00:31:32.720 --> 00:31:34.799
I mean, they're like twelve hundred dollars, bro.
00:31:34.960 --> 00:31:36.720
A thousand dollars, eight hundred dollars.
00:31:36.880 --> 00:31:50.559
Okay, if i phone's a thousand dollars, a thousand divided by fifty-five months, it would take fifth months to pay off the iPhone off subscriptions if it's a thousand dollars for eighteen dollars a month.
00:31:50.799 --> 00:31:51.200
What?
00:31:51.440 --> 00:31:52.880
Oh, that's zero percent.
00:31:52.960 --> 00:31:53.680
You're right.
00:31:53.920 --> 00:31:56.640
That is a crazy number.
00:31:56.880 --> 00:31:59.759
Leasing an iPhone is diabolical, by the way.
00:31:59.920 --> 00:32:01.119
But it's a good deal.
00:32:01.200 --> 00:32:02.319
Like, can you blame them?
00:32:02.480 --> 00:32:03.920
I I don't feel as if I can.
00:32:04.000 --> 00:32:04.720
It's a good deal.
00:32:04.880 --> 00:32:06.559
You know, this is where it starts.
00:32:06.720 --> 00:32:10.000
This is where it starts on you will own nothing and you will be happy.
00:32:10.160 --> 00:32:17.440
First, you don't even own your Chick-fil-A nuggets with Klarna, then you don't own your video games with PlayStation anymore.
00:32:17.599 --> 00:32:18.960
They have a digital subscription.
00:32:19.119 --> 00:32:23.519
Then you don't own your car, you lease it, you don't own your house, you gotta pay it off.
00:32:24.000 --> 00:32:25.759
You have a 50-year mortgage on your house.
00:32:25.920 --> 00:32:34.160
And then you don't own your phone, you don't own your iPad, you don't own your watch, you don't own your data in Chat GPT or Anthropic.
00:32:34.319 --> 00:32:39.200
You can't run a local model because it's it's banned, it's illegal, you're getting persecuted.
00:32:39.359 --> 00:32:41.440
You own nothing, you actually own nothing.
00:32:41.519 --> 00:32:49.519
You don't even own your collectibles anymore because they're fucking NFTs and like OpenC shuts down and you forgot your seed phrase, and then you don't even own you don't own that.
00:32:49.759 --> 00:32:51.119
You don't you don't own anything.
00:32:51.279 --> 00:32:52.000
It's insane.
00:32:52.079 --> 00:32:53.200
It's actually nuts.
00:32:53.440 --> 00:32:55.359
Um, and so I don't know.
00:32:55.519 --> 00:32:57.119
Apple comes out with this announcement.
00:32:57.200 --> 00:32:58.880
I I I've never seen this before.
00:32:58.960 --> 00:33:06.720
I didn't even know you could you could uh this was like a very like a viable business model, like how in what world is that profitable for Apple?
00:33:07.279 --> 00:33:08.640
I'm not really sure that I get it.
00:33:08.720 --> 00:33:11.359
Um, but this is why I'm not the CEO of Apple, I suppose.
00:33:11.519 --> 00:33:13.200
This is who I staked my net worth on.
00:33:13.359 --> 00:33:15.920
Obviously, the sort of only bet over the last year was NVIDIA.
00:33:16.559 --> 00:33:18.799
Um and um, you know, it's obvious now.
00:33:18.960 --> 00:33:20.880
There's not a damn thing to smile about either.
00:33:21.119 --> 00:33:22.240
Very few people did it.
00:33:22.400 --> 00:33:32.480
Um, this is sort of also, you know, a classic debate I and a friend had with another colleague of ours, where this colleague was really into TSM, you know, TSMC, and he was just kind of like, well, you know, like these fabs are gonna be so valuable.
00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:35.359
And also, like NVIDIA, there's just a lot of idiosyncratic risk, right?
00:33:35.440 --> 00:33:37.279
It's like maybe somebody else makes better GPUs.
00:33:37.519 --> 00:33:41.039
And that was basically right, but sort of only NVIDIA had the AI beta, right?
00:33:41.119 --> 00:33:52.880
Because only Shaw's tweet wouldn't wouldn't kill, is all I'll say.
00:33:53.119 --> 00:33:56.880
Like it wouldn't, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for him to tweet about Shaw's.
00:34:09.599 --> 00:34:12.159
When Shaw's gets the anthropic deal and it goes down.
00:34:20.880 --> 00:34:21.760
I'll see you tomorrow.
00:34:21.920 --> 00:34:22.880
FOMC tonight.
00:34:23.039 --> 00:34:24.000
Good fucking luck, man.
00:34:24.079 --> 00:34:25.840
I'll be in in in our telegram.
00:34:26.239 --> 00:34:28.079
Um you already know what I'll be in the pit.
00:34:28.159 --> 00:34:29.360
I'll be in the fucking pit.
00:34:29.840 --> 00:34:32.719
Ah, well I'll catch you when I get you.
00:34:32.800 --> 00:34:33.519
I'll see you when I get you.
00:34:34.159 --> 00:34:35.280
Have a great rest of your day.
00:34:36.079 --> 00:34:38.960
Last stream of the week, tomorrow that I'm gone for fucking like a year.
00:34:39.360 --> 00:34:40.400
I love you, motherfuckers.
00:34:40.719 --> 00:34:41.599
Sorry about the rug.
