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learn more about Uphold, please visit the
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link in the description. Welcome back
to the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
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00:00:42.240 --> 00:00:47.000
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. With
me today is James Safer, who's an
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ETF research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
James, great to have you on the
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show. Yeah, thanks for having
me. I'm looking forward to it.
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James. I saw a tweet from
you showing that the percentage increase of a
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the chances of an approval of a
bigcoin spotty TF has been increased by you
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and the folks at Bloomberg, and
I was like, I gotta get you
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on here to talk about it because
everybody's waiting in anticipation for a SPOTTYTF approval.
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But before we get there, tell
us about yourself. You know where
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you're from. Would you grow up
in your professional background? Yeah? So
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I'm in New Jersey, native born
and raised all the way through. I
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went to college at the College New
Jersey study financial accounting and started working at
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Bloomberg right out of school. Ironically, I'm not in New Jersey on these
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coasts right now. I'm actually in
Saint Louis, which we were just talking
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about beforehand, but visiting my girlfriend
who's out here for residency. So yeah,
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started at Bloomberg right out of school
was very I had done some internships
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of hedge funds, so did a
lot of stuff with funds data so ETF's
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hedge funds, mutual funds, that
type of stuff. And Eric Baccuni,
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who's my current boss, I did
a lot of work for him when I
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was When I was in Bloomberg's data
department, and he went over he had
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written books on ETFs and they brought
him over to Blue Intelligence, which is
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Bloombridge Research arm. So when I
joined him in Bloomberg, intelligence. I
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was split between two people. I
was working with Eric on the ETF and
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fun side and Mike McLoone on the
commodity side. And right after I joined,
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Mike McGlone decided he was interested.
He's like, do you know anything
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about cryptos? And I was like
do I I've spent a lot of my
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personal time researching this. So I
helped bring Mike McLoone up, so we
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cover cryptos from like strategic and commodities
global macro perspective. On his side,
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we also have a crypto analyst who
does bottoms up like on chain type analysis,
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things like that of different of the
major cryptos and digital assets however you
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want to describe it. So we
have a whole team of people that do
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this type of stuff. So naturally, I actually when I eventually got promoted
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to a full time analyst, I
went to the et F side because that's
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really where my expertise was, not
commodities, but I do specifically cover our
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commodities ETFs, and obviously because of
that I have been I have sit squarely
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and like the two diagrams of my
area of expertise and interest is ETPPS and
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funds and crypto and commodities and alternative
assets. So use these crypto funds,
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these bitcoin applications and the theorem futures
applications that like right in my like the
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overlapping part of my my diagram.
Essentially, that's awesome. So your personal
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journey in discovering crypto, you know, you wanted to folks ask you,
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do you know anything about crypto?
What was your first encounter and what was
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your AHA moment? Yeah, so
they're as like most people. My first
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encounter was not my AHA moment,
So my freshman year in college, so
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this would have been spring of twenty
fourteen. I had a suite mate who
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was like telling me, now I
know it was bitcoin. I didn't understand
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what he was saying. I don't
remember him saying that, but he was
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interested in you like looking at the
silk road, talking about this decentralized thing,
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like talking about mining, and I
let him download the bitcoin minor software.
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I was like, yeah, fine, you can use my computer and
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put it on my laptop and you
can get some of these free like magic
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coins, like I don't care.
Ultimately that that laptop completely crashed, the
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hard drive completely malfunctioned, that I
actually lost like a ten page paper.
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So for years my association with crypto
and bitcoin was like it ruined my computer.
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There's no way, like I don't
know for sure that that's what happened,
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but like in my mind, like
the timing was like too overlapping for
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that not to have been part of
the cause. But yeah, So basically
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this guy who I reached out,
So in twenty sixteen, the next step
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was when I really got reintroduced to
it. Kathy Wood, who we work
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with a lot of runs ARC Investment
Management. She's like known for her ETFs.
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She was one of the first people. I think she was the first
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public fund to invest in crypto in
some way when she bought GBTC in like
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twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, and
I was actually at like a traditional finance
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conference and she was up on stage
and she spent the entire time on stage
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just talking about bitcoin. They wrote
bitcoin, like not the white paper,
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but their own white paper about why
they thought it was beneficial, where it
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could go, And that's when I
really got hooked. So that was like
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the fall of twenty sixteen. So
I opened my first coin base and crypto
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Gemini accounts actually around that time.
So that's when I first started diving in
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and really learning about it, and
obviously, like a few months later,
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things kind of went crazy, and
in the actually in late twenty seventeen,
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when things were really at their heyday, we were actually writing it was a
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bubble. Mike mcgloan was getting ripped
apart for saying it was a bubble at
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the time by crypto Twitter. As
you can imagine, he's now a crypto
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bowl if you will, but he
was very adamant calling it a bubble at
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the time. I reached out to
Mike, the guy that put the software
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on might pick on my laptop and
he and he never responded to me and
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ultimately deleted any trace of himself in
the Internet. So he's either I'm hoping
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he just like has like a crypto
multi millionaire, or however much, but
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who knows. I'm assuming most likely
he probably had his money on Silk Road
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if he did and it's long gone, or Mount Gox the odds of him
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actually having it somewhere, but who
knows. I've never been able to get
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in touch with them, and anyone
I've asked that we also used to know
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him hasn't heard or seen him from
him since college. Well hopefully to your
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point, it's not the latter,
it's the former of he became. Actually,
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I just realized. I just realized. I said twenty fourteen. I
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graduated in twenty fourteen, so it
was spring of twenty eleven, so it
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was even way earlier than that.
But yeah, the point still remains the
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same. Oh yeah, I mean, so you could be considered a crypto
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og man. I mean, you
know, I had no interest. I
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thought it was fake. I didn't. Yeah, like most people you read
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about the first time, you're like, this is ridiculous, and then like
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you really come back and for the
most part, anyone who's really died in
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I feel like everyone I talked to
was like they heard about it, thought
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it was bs, and came back
to and we're like, actually, this
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might have something to it. So
for sure. So James, you know,
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you have this experience of looking at
trad FI and ETFs and how things
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have progressed there and how that market
is set up for different types of ets.
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What was your first impression or thought
when you heard black Rock is applying
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for a big coins body TF.
Very good question. So before that we
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would so we were officially at like
one percent odds. I was probably like
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closer to ten percent odds that we
got an ETF this year, because I
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thought like there was always a chance
that Congress would do something like what It
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wasn't zero, but we were pretty
low. ARC was the only active application
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Kathy Woods company. ARC was partnered
with twenty one Years, which is an
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ETF issuer. They have the most
crypto ETFs anywhere in the world as an
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issuer, They're mostly in Europe.
They're almost all in Europe, So we
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just thought the odds were pretty slim. We were waiting on the gray scale
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case. We were very bullish on
the gray scale case, which we can
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get into a little bit, but
basically, we came out early, right
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after oral arguments in March and said
that we had a seven percent chance of
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a gray scale approval. So those
odds had gone up a bit, but
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we still expected the SEC to Basically, we thought great Skill would win,
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but that the SEC would still come
back and deny for different reasons. That
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was our base case until Blackrock filed, and then all of a sudden everything
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changes because we weren't shock that Blackrock
was interested in launching a bitcoin ETF.
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Right you asked me, at any
point, I would say, if any
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of the big issues are going to
launch a bitcoin etf, it's gonna be
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black Rock, right. It could
be potential for growth. It's just something
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they would do. They have a
gold DPF. They will take a shot
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at anything. What was surprising is
that they would take a shot at going
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first and trying to fight this regulatory
battle. So the fact that somebody like
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Blackrock, the largest asset manager in
the world, came in and they had
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this language with a surveillance shearing agreement. At the time they didn't name the
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exchange. We all assumed it was
coin base, but at the time they
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didn't say coin Base. They had
to surreneer agreement, which we get into
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the nuances of how much that actually
matters. But there was a lot of
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things that all of a sudden the
calculus changed and we basically within a couple
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of days of that upped our odds
to fifty percent. From talking to other
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people, we saw a lot of
other people applying, so for a long
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time right after that black Rock News, we are around fifty fifty before we
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thought whether or not we thought these
would get approved, and then as you
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mentioned, we recently just upped our
odds on the spot pick we'en ETF to
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sixty five. And I want to
be clear, this is not like quantitative
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or like we're not measuring all these
different things. It's like we have a
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team of people and we're all arguing
and debating about what facts matter and trying
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to read the tea leaves is really
like a little crazy. But it's like
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we kind of figure out, like
if the odds were here, would you
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still bet on it? Like on
either side? So we're trying to figure
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out that and try to figure out
like where we actually think the odds are.
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So yeah, that's that's how it
works. And I'll just I'll just
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stop there. You can ask whatever
else you're so do you want here?
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No, that's great insight and I
love it. And that's you know when
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I follow you and Eric is,
well, you guys have provide insightful information
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about what's happening. And you know, do you think we've hit a tipping
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point with institutional adoption of bitcoin and
crypto? Because as soon as Blackrock filed,
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the whole herd of Wall Street starting
lining up. Everybody started filing for
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as body TF and also following black
Rocks League. You mentioned coin Bees being
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named as the surveillance partner, the
structure, the feedback from the SEC.
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Do you think we've hit at that
tipping point that now it's like everybody's going
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to be participating in this. So
so what I will say is like,
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there really aren't any new filers,
like all these guys. The only new
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filer here is Blackrock. Every single
other person that's filed here has already filed
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in the past. So it's this
isn't like brand new institutional adoption. This
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is institutions that have people at these
fronts. I often hear all these people
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about like institutions don't understand it,
but like people don't grasp it, like
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it's a big company like Bloomberg.
For the longest time I was we were
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recovering crypto. I believe in some
of the things that the crypto ecosystem and
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bitcoin itself was to do, but
like Bloomberg as a company was against it.
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Right, it's top down, But
there doesn't mean that like these companies.
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These people at these companies, there's
people within them that don't believe in
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it. So obviously Blackrock has people
like that Invesco wisdom trade bit wise is
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basically solely based on crypto asset management. So all these different firms out there
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that like, even if the whole
firm isn't behind it, there's likely people
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that have personal interests or think there's
a room for growth there. I forget
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exactly where I was going there,
But it's not that this is a herd
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of institutions. The one thing I
will say, as far as the institution
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goes, if the SEC does approve
this, right, it's not so much
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that, oh my god, billions
and billions of dollars are going to flow
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into this and it's gonna pump my
bags. It's more to me specifically this
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and we get to what futures ETFs
too. It's like this is more of
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singing signaling from the SEC that like
they're kind of changing their tune a little
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bit. You're getting a little bit
more regulatory clarity, not enough in my
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opinion, but you're getting a little
bit more more reasonable clarity. I guess
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the clarity right now is nothing is
allowed, but that seems to be something
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is changing on the back ends here, and I don't know how much of
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it is because Blackrock and Larry Finker
involved these lawsuits that have been half losses
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or full losses at the SEC.
Basically, the way I looked at it
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was like, until Blackrock got involved, the the SEC kind of viewed Bitcoin
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is like this tier or pedestal all
off on its own, and then all
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these coins are on the opposite side, and then Ethereum and some other ones
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were kind of in this middle ground
where like they wouldn't say it's a commodity,
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they're not also claiming it's like it's
security, so like they might be
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like, kind of my assumption is
now that Ethereum is kind of being pushed
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closer to Bitcoin, but not fully. So we're just kind of trying to
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read all these tea leaves. What
are people saying, what is the SEC
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doing? We have sources at these
companies and about like what back channeling might
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be happening from the SEC. So
we're just trying to put all that together
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to figure out what's happening. So
it's really just us live like seeing everything
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we can and knowing how these regulatory
bodies work, knowing how these issuers think,
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and knowing how the process works,
to try and figure out what could
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be happening here. So, James, are you hearing of anything related to
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Goldman, Sacks and some of the
investment banks that who may want to also
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throw in in application as well.
Yeah, so, I so there's a
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lot of people talking about these other
names that could throw in. Honestly,
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I don't think anyone else is really
going to throw in. It's only gonna
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be the asset managers for the most
part that I've already done this, these
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etf issuers, because even as it
is right now, we have like ten
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applications. Global X just fought refiled, so global X had filed in the
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past, they followed last week,
so they update, so it's nine active
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applications. And then you get if
you include the gray Scale lawsuit, which
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we also consider to be active,
that's ten different issuers looking to launch a
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spot pico an etf And while ets
are kind of like a winner take all,
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it's more like a winner take most. I'll take that quote from Matt
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Hogan, who's one of the head
of research a fit Wise asset Management.
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It's like, there's not room for
ten spotic or anytfs, right like it
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like most likely that may theoretically maybe
there could be if there's really a lot
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of interest, but time will tell, right, So I don't think anyone
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else is going to come into the
space, like there's too many people have
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too much of a lead. There's
a lot of things you need to set
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up on the back end with third
party custodians, administrators working with the market
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makers and the traders and the authorized
sparticisms that will make these things work.
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Like it's not like Goldben can just
spin this up in a day and get
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it launched out. So so yeah, I would say any rumors about other
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people entering that haven't already filed,
I'm not sure I buy that, But
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it's not it wouldn't be impossible.
I just think it's it's gonna be very
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hard, especially if either the SEC
is going to approve these ones that have
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already filed in order with the way
they filed, or they're going to approve
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them all at once. And either
way, either if they approve them all
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in order, you're way late to
the game. Unless you're going to offer
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some ridiculously low price or some really
unique thing that like people are gonna want,
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you're not gonna be able to stand
out. And if it's all at
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once, you like if you're a
goldman, like, oh, why would
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you ever do that? Right?
Sure, so you mentioned, you know,
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possibly a scenario is that all of
these ETFs get approved at once.
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It seems like the SEC is under
pressure because of the backdrop of regulatory uh
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you know, issues that are happening, regulations and bills that are in process,
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the ripple situation, Gray Scale seeming
like they're going to win this.
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You know, what does your gut
tell you is the likely scenario to play
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out that all of them get approved? And are you thinking two four of
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this year or this is something that
spills into next year. Good question,
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So I'll split it up into two
answers. The first answer is we think
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multiple we approved at once. I've
written research where I basically said, like,
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we expect it to be all of
them at once, but that's not
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that's like just like our base case. I do think if if they are
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approved, they will all be There
will be multiple approved, not necessarily all
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of them, but theoretically the easiest
way to do this is just the light
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here, all of all ten.
If you have at it right, that's
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the path of least resistance, particularly
if the SEC loses their lawsuit against Gray
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scale, which we're waiting on a
decision. So one, I think multiple
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launch at once. Maybe all will
launch at once, but time will tell
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standards and precedent says that that's not
going to be the case. They'll just
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launch like one after the other in
the order that they were filed. Potentially,
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I don't think that will happen either. The SEC is very cognizant.
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They got critiqued hard for launching BIDDO, which is the Futures Bitcoin Future z
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ETF first, and it basically they
were they played a kingmaker role. They
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let BIDDO launch first, and they
want in the in the entire they have
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like ninety ninety four percent of the
aspects of ninety eight percent of the trading
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volume. I mean, it's it's
become it's the dominant choice, right,
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So I think the SEC is cognizant
of that, doesn't want to go down
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that route again. As far as
timeline goes, obviously, the SEC,
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like everyone talked with all these timelines. I have all these deadlines that are
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important to me. I like to
watch them. But at the end of
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the day, the SEC can kind
of do whatever the hell they want,
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which I feel like is kind of
getting overlooked. Like I've been saying this
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from the get go, like everyone's
like, oh, they can't do this,
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they can't do that. I Mean, what it comes down to is
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like what Gary Gensler and the people
they reports do so namely Democrats in Congress
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or like just the White House in
a way, like they'll make their decisions
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and the SEC staff and lawyers will
back into those decisions with legal reasoning.
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That's what they've done. They've done
that in the past. They did it
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when they approved one of the Bitcoin
Future z ETF approvals, so they have
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no problem doing that. Right.
So that's the one thing on timeline,
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like they could have proved them all
next week, Like that's not like that
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wouldn't be like illegal or anything.
Right. So, but my main timelines
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are I initially, if you would
ask me a month ago or two months
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ago when when the Gray Scale,
sorry, when the black Rock application happened,
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I thought they would approve these things
before the Gray Scale decision comes down,
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and that way they could basically say, who cares what the courts say,
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we did, we actually were right
and we wanted this surveillance share agreement
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or whatever. I'm not sure this
is going to happen anymore. I'm more
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in the camp now where I think
the SEC is going to wait for a
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gray scale decision because you have black
rock on one end, you have a
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gray scale potential loss on the other
end, and the SEC is really kind
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of backed into a corner, particularly
in these spot pic winn ETFs, So
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then I think they might approve.
So the two dates that I'm really watching
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are one if that's if my theory
is correct, it'll be some time period
285
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after the gray scale decision comes down, which could come down any day now.
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Our expectations will be before September thirtieth. My guess was August fifteenth,
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like a month and a half ago, so that's still on the table.
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Will be great if that was a
complete other like just educated gaps, so
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like don't take any credence to that. But the real dates that we're looking
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at, it would be like something
like forty five to plus days after that
291
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decision comes down that the SEC would
do something. So technically, the DC
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Court of Appeals, it's a panel
three judges. They will make a decision
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in the gray scale case, and
then the SEC, theoretically, if they
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lose, will have forty five days
to request what's called like an un bond
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hearing, which basically means like rather
than just the three judges that are on
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the panel, will be all the
judges that are on that DC circuit.
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So it'd be like, however,
many judges would descrust would look at the
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marriage of the case and decide like, if it was like dealt with correctly,
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we're not, so it's unlikely SEC
would do that, but I guess
300
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time will tell, So then we
could be waiting even longer if they do
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go down that route. But if
they don't, then you have like forty
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five ish days at least maybe more
before the SEC will have to do something.
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So it'll or will be completely dependent
on exactly what the judge's ruling says.
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So it's like, yeah, the
gray scale could win, but it's
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going to really come down what the
wording in that lawsuit is. I'm sorry
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that was the That was the one
day, So like the one date is
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like we get we get the ruling, and then there's some timeline of the
308
00:20:10.880 --> 00:20:14.039
SEC has to respond the other date. The next one is the R twenty
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one shares. I said they were
the only one that was active when black
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Rock filed their first final deadline absolutely
last case last dit Shepherd, where the
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SECS approve or deny is January tenth. So if the SEC if we get
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the January tenth and the SEC denies
ARC and twenty one shares their application,
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I can't imagine them approving the other
ones that are due in March, right,
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So if that gets denied, then
it's all, God, we're not
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getting a spot P twenty tf that
year. I'm still in the mindset and
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I know this is not tangible or
anything that optics uh, you know,
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and the optics don't look good for
Gary Ginzer right now. He and especially
318
00:20:53.680 --> 00:20:59.480
if black Rock is here paypals launching
a stable coin, the narrative has shifted
319
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on him. So I feel like
there's pressure on him, But I could
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be absolutely wrong. That's just you
know, yeah, we agree with you
321
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completely, like we've been saying from
the get go. The one reason the
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reason that Eric and Eric Eric and
I picked up so many followers is because
323
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we were the ones saying the spot
bitcoin ETF was going to get approved,
324
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and we weren't, like crypto analysts, like it's going to get approved,
325
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right, So it's so BTC futures. So that's that was in twenty twenty
326
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one. And one of the reasons
we were so bullish, and that was
327
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because Gary Gensler gave a speech on
August third of twenty twenty one saying like,
328
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we look forward to applications, which
doesn't sound like much, but it's
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similar to what they did with the
futures ets recently. And really what it
330
00:21:36.640 --> 00:21:40.359
comes down to is what Gary wants
to do. So it's become, as
331
00:21:40.359 --> 00:21:42.279
you said, the words we've used, it is politically untenable. It's becoming
332
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to a point where like Gary needs
to spin this as a win. And
333
00:21:45.599 --> 00:21:48.119
if he's taken off this, he's
a political animal. He wants to be
334
00:21:48.119 --> 00:21:52.960
Treasury Secretary, no matter. He's
a very political minded person. Right,
335
00:21:52.000 --> 00:21:56.359
So if he can spin this and
say, look, we got coin based
336
00:21:56.359 --> 00:22:00.319
to come in with a surveillance Sharman
Graham and bring them under our jurisdiction in
337
00:22:00.359 --> 00:22:03.319
some way to do X, Y
and Z, we've cleaned up crypto a
338
00:22:03.359 --> 00:22:06.839
bit more. All of a sudden, him approving these doesn't look like a
339
00:22:06.880 --> 00:22:08.720
loss or him losing a gray scale. It looks like he won. And
340
00:22:08.799 --> 00:22:12.279
like, in my mind, that's
the route that I would go down if
341
00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:15.200
I were him, unless there's some
other thing going on. So I completely
342
00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:18.839
agree with you. It's it's getting
to a point where he kind of has
343
00:22:18.920 --> 00:22:22.400
to shift gears a little bit.
I think, like I hinted at earlier,
344
00:22:22.640 --> 00:22:25.759
he's going to shift gears on bitcoin
and ethereum because he has said from
345
00:22:25.759 --> 00:22:27.000
the get go, bitcoin is the
one thing he will say is not a
346
00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:32.160
security, Right, He's going to
shift and let kind of bitcoin and ethereum
347
00:22:32.359 --> 00:22:36.079
be their own thing and then really
go after everything else. And we'll see
348
00:22:36.079 --> 00:22:37.400
how that goes. Obviously, it
didn't go great with Ripple, and if
349
00:22:37.400 --> 00:22:41.680
you asked me, I would have
said Ripple, if anything is a security,
350
00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:44.000
Rippled about as close as the gets
like that. A lot of the
351
00:22:44.000 --> 00:22:48.559
other cryptos are have less security like
characteristics than Ripple does. So and so
352
00:22:49.200 --> 00:22:53.039
with regards to the coin based item
that you mentioned, you know, with
353
00:22:53.079 --> 00:22:56.880
the fact that the SEC is suing
them, do you think that throws a
354
00:22:56.880 --> 00:23:00.920
monkey wrench in anything or is it
like you said, bitcoines, nearly they've
355
00:23:00.920 --> 00:23:03.200
said it is not a security.
See, it doesn't matter about the all
356
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:07.880
coins near that lawsuit is happening because
of the all coins, but the bitcoin
357
00:23:07.000 --> 00:23:11.519
situation and the custody standpoint. From
a custody standpoint, that doesn't matter or
358
00:23:11.519 --> 00:23:15.759
effect the ETF process. Yeah,
So all the denials back to the Winklevoss
359
00:23:15.839 --> 00:23:21.640
trying to get this through with their
Gemini Trust, have said that they want
360
00:23:21.640 --> 00:23:26.599
a surveillance sharing agreement with a regulated
market of significant size. And those are
361
00:23:26.680 --> 00:23:30.240
very specific words because that's what the
SEC continues to use. There's all a
362
00:23:30.240 --> 00:23:32.960
bunch of other reasons why they denied
them over the time, but like for
363
00:23:33.000 --> 00:23:34.720
that has been there the whole time, and that's really the one thing we're
364
00:23:34.720 --> 00:23:40.720
focused on here. They want either
a regulated market underneath somebody's regular like the
365
00:23:40.799 --> 00:23:44.880
SEC or CFTC, which is why
they approve the futures because the CME market
366
00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:49.119
is under the CFTC. It's a
regulate, it's a regulator. So they've
367
00:23:49.200 --> 00:23:53.240
always said they wanted this, right. The question is like, there's no
368
00:23:53.319 --> 00:23:57.000
definition of what a regulated market is
like you kind of know it when you
369
00:23:57.039 --> 00:24:02.200
see it really, and there's no
definition really what a market of significant sizes
370
00:24:02.279 --> 00:24:06.920
And the SEC gets shown their willingness
to completely finagle on those matters. Right,
371
00:24:07.240 --> 00:24:10.759
So I mentioned the CME ones,
they basically approved the CMME Futures prop
372
00:24:10.920 --> 00:24:17.119
Acts sorry to CEME Futures ETFs up
for bitcoin, saying that they were markets
373
00:24:17.240 --> 00:24:22.079
regulated markets of signa in size because
CEMME regulated by the CFTC, and it's
374
00:24:22.079 --> 00:24:25.359
a market of significant size because it's
the only market in the US, so
375
00:24:25.440 --> 00:24:29.119
like it's a it's a market of
significant size with relation to itself. So
376
00:24:29.119 --> 00:24:33.519
that goes back to showing like the
SEC will back into whatever is decided from
377
00:24:33.519 --> 00:24:37.440
above. They decided what is the
most tenable situation. So the next question
378
00:24:37.559 --> 00:24:42.640
is is does that mean that coin
base is a market of a regulated market
379
00:24:42.720 --> 00:24:48.519
of significant size. It depends how
you look at it, right, So
380
00:24:48.519 --> 00:24:51.960
so if you look at it on
US dollar trading volume, coin base is
381
00:24:52.079 --> 00:24:55.440
the place, right, not stable
coins. If you look at US dollar,
382
00:24:55.559 --> 00:24:56.720
if you want to narrow it down
the US dollar, you want to
383
00:24:56.759 --> 00:25:02.160
narrow it down to US based exchanges, coin bas is the market of significant
384
00:25:02.160 --> 00:25:03.039
size. So all of a sudden, you're good. If you want to
385
00:25:03.039 --> 00:25:06.799
look at everything else, Obviously you
have to get Binance. The SEC is
386
00:25:06.839 --> 00:25:10.599
going after Binance and in similar losses, but of way more aggressive mentality.
387
00:25:10.599 --> 00:25:14.519
They are accusing them of way more
egregious behavior than they're going after coin based
388
00:25:14.519 --> 00:25:18.640
war. They're going after coin Base
for operating an unregistered securities exchange or unregistered
389
00:25:18.640 --> 00:25:22.680
broker dealer. Essentially, they are
not doing that for finance and going after
390
00:25:22.680 --> 00:25:26.720
them for way more. And also, as you hinted that and I've said
391
00:25:26.960 --> 00:25:30.400
when we were at fifty fifty,
I said, they are not going after
392
00:25:30.480 --> 00:25:33.480
anything related to bitcoin. Bitcoin is
not even mentioned in the lawsuits. It's
393
00:25:33.519 --> 00:25:37.799
all these other tokens, those things
that are more security like tokens and not
394
00:25:37.880 --> 00:25:41.359
bitcoins. So that was one thing. And then the Brian Armstrong article came
395
00:25:41.359 --> 00:25:42.759
out, which is partly one of
the things that kind of made us go
396
00:25:42.799 --> 00:25:47.640
to sixty five percent. They've since
disputed it, but Brian Armstrong basically said
397
00:25:47.640 --> 00:25:51.200
to the FD that the the SEC
sets of them delist every single thing on
398
00:25:51.240 --> 00:25:53.799
your platform aside from bitcoin. And
in my mind that just like says the
399
00:25:53.839 --> 00:25:57.000
SEC is more okay with bitcoin.
Right, So, if coin Base has
400
00:25:57.000 --> 00:26:03.359
an as the SSA or so on
sharing Agreement partner in all these ETF applications,
401
00:26:04.279 --> 00:26:10.799
I think it's somewhat it's more safe
to assume that those the spot bitcoin
402
00:26:10.880 --> 00:26:14.559
trading on coin Base is more acceptable
to the SEC than any of the other
403
00:26:14.599 --> 00:26:21.720
stuff. Yeah, that totally makes
sense. So James walk us through as
404
00:26:21.720 --> 00:26:26.160
though we're news here, because once
again, you know about ets soup to
405
00:26:26.240 --> 00:26:29.400
nuts, and you know about it
from your trad five standpoint. Let's say
406
00:26:29.440 --> 00:26:32.400
we get a bunch of ETFs approved, right, You've got black Rock,
407
00:26:32.920 --> 00:26:37.359
arc invests and so forth. What
are the next us? What happens next?
408
00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:41.039
Internally? Do they start setting up
the pipelines and they have to market
409
00:26:41.119 --> 00:26:44.680
it? And who do you think
has the advantage? You know, I'm
410
00:26:44.720 --> 00:26:47.799
assuming black Rock, but you may, you know, say different. So
411
00:26:48.200 --> 00:26:51.720
I'm sure there's some eyes that need
to be dotted and t's that need to
412
00:26:51.759 --> 00:26:55.599
be crossed, But anyone who's filed
like probably has ninety five percent of that
413
00:26:55.640 --> 00:26:59.240
stuff done right. It's just a
matter of like finishing, tightening those nuts
414
00:26:59.279 --> 00:27:02.079
and bolts and figure things out right. So for the most part, they
415
00:27:02.119 --> 00:27:04.680
have their market makers. They're already
aware. Market makers are the typical trading
416
00:27:04.680 --> 00:27:10.240
firms that help make sure these things
trade efficiently. They have authorized participants to
417
00:27:10.279 --> 00:27:14.519
people that can create and redeem the
shares. So an ETF, the reason
418
00:27:14.559 --> 00:27:18.839
it works so well is there's constant
availability for creation and redemption, which you
419
00:27:18.880 --> 00:27:21.240
can't do in those trusts from gray
scale, and that's part of the reason
420
00:27:21.279 --> 00:27:22.680
why they're broken and why they want
to convert to an ETF. You can
421
00:27:22.720 --> 00:27:29.480
constantly create shares or you can constantly
destroy shares. So that's that's the big
422
00:27:29.519 --> 00:27:30.759
problem. But for the most part, it's already a done deal, right,
423
00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:33.599
like they're they're ready to go,
like they are, all their pipes
424
00:27:33.599 --> 00:27:37.119
are connected. Like if they're not, then that's a huge problem for them
425
00:27:37.160 --> 00:27:41.000
and they're going to lose out because
once they get approved, if somebody else
426
00:27:41.039 --> 00:27:44.319
is ready, they're screwed, right, Like if somebody goes a couple of
427
00:27:44.359 --> 00:27:47.640
days before and like six ets launch
on the same day and then well some
428
00:27:47.680 --> 00:27:51.880
of these other guys aren't actually ready
to launch, it's that's a that there's
429
00:27:51.880 --> 00:27:57.839
somebody's losing their job probably to be
quite honest. So that's that front so
430
00:27:59.319 --> 00:28:03.599
marketing, assuming these all do launch
at one time, which Kathy would even
431
00:28:03.640 --> 00:28:07.440
hinted at on our she we interviewed
our ETFIQ, which is our ETF show
432
00:28:07.480 --> 00:28:11.079
for Bloomer TV, and Kathy would
again she keeps coming up in this conversation,
433
00:28:11.079 --> 00:28:14.039
but she just said like it's our
marketing is going to be important,
434
00:28:14.119 --> 00:28:18.200
So like people who have relationships,
there's there's gonna be black Rock is the
435
00:28:18.440 --> 00:28:22.680
easy winner here most so many registered
investment advisors are ra as in the US,
436
00:28:22.720 --> 00:28:26.960
independent advisors trust black Rock. They
like using black Rock. If they're
437
00:28:26.000 --> 00:28:30.319
not crypto native or crypto hardcore,
they'll probably just go with the black Rock
438
00:28:30.319 --> 00:28:33.359
option, assuming that gets approved first
or right around the same time with the
439
00:28:33.359 --> 00:28:36.160
others. But there's plenty of other
people out there, right some of these
440
00:28:36.359 --> 00:28:40.480
some of these offerings are probably gonna
have like really small redemption availability. So
441
00:28:40.519 --> 00:28:44.839
like for the most part, to
do that creation redemption process I talked about,
442
00:28:44.880 --> 00:28:48.640
you need hundreds of thousands of shares
fifty thousand shares, so it's hundreds
443
00:28:48.640 --> 00:28:52.559
of thousands of dollars to create or
redeem those shares. But there are ETFs
444
00:28:52.599 --> 00:28:56.079
out there for gold, for example, where you can like only have like
445
00:28:56.119 --> 00:28:59.160
a couple thousand dollars and it'll deliver
gold to your doorstep. So I think
446
00:28:59.160 --> 00:29:00.680
there will be issuers that will like, oh, you only need a few
447
00:29:00.680 --> 00:29:03.799
thousand dollars and we'll send bitcoin to
like whatever while it address you want,
448
00:29:04.119 --> 00:29:07.200
or some of them will lend out
the bitcoin and aren yield, so you'll
449
00:29:07.200 --> 00:29:11.119
have better returns and you'll get dividends
from it, which obviously some people aren't
450
00:29:11.119 --> 00:29:15.039
gonna want. They're gonna want their
stuff they expose sitting in cold story.
451
00:29:15.079 --> 00:29:18.039
So there's gonna be nuances and how
these people market their ideas, how they
452
00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:23.079
try to sell them. But likely
right now black Rock would be the winner.
453
00:29:23.079 --> 00:29:26.559
But then again, you also have
people like Valkyrie and bit Wise that
454
00:29:26.680 --> 00:29:32.400
are like really focused solely on the
crypto ecosystem. They have people from the
455
00:29:32.480 --> 00:29:37.039
DeFi space that really know DeFi and
crypto in general. So maybe some of
456
00:29:37.039 --> 00:29:38.799
the people from the crypto world who
are looking to put this thing in an
457
00:29:38.839 --> 00:29:42.480
IRA or four oh and K or
what have you, they'll go with those
458
00:29:42.480 --> 00:29:47.000
type of providers. So this is
one area where they're like there really is
459
00:29:47.119 --> 00:29:49.960
specialized knowledge. So that's one benefit
that Ark and twenty one Cheers have because
460
00:29:49.960 --> 00:29:52.960
twenty one shars has a bunch of
these ETFs launched in Europe area, so
461
00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:57.079
they have a lot of the back
end infrastructure. I would never doubt black
462
00:29:57.160 --> 00:30:00.240
Rock to figure it out. Right. They are large assassinage in the world
463
00:30:00.240 --> 00:30:03.119
for a reason. They're very good
at what they do. But there might
464
00:30:03.160 --> 00:30:07.480
be some nuances that, like say
at twenty one years has run into and
465
00:30:07.519 --> 00:30:10.400
they are just know how to do
it a little better. But who knows.
466
00:30:10.759 --> 00:30:12.680
But for really, Blackrock is sitting
in the pole position as far as
467
00:30:12.720 --> 00:30:17.079
like gathering the most assets assuming they
all launch at the same time, just
468
00:30:17.119 --> 00:30:21.880
because of their brand name. Yeah
for sure. So James, you know,
469
00:30:22.119 --> 00:30:27.440
we got this SPOTTYTF thing happening and
everybody's hoping it dovetails with the bitcoin
470
00:30:27.559 --> 00:30:32.799
having coming up next year, going
to the four year cycle right new all
471
00:30:32.839 --> 00:30:36.119
time wise, what are your thoughts, man, do you think we're instant
472
00:30:36.160 --> 00:30:40.839
for some epic bull run like we've
never seen before? So I'm going to
473
00:30:40.880 --> 00:30:45.720
give some counter evidence to what we're
talking about here. Unfortunately, if you
474
00:30:45.759 --> 00:30:51.279
look at when the CIME bitcoin futures
were approved, they were approved in late
475
00:30:51.279 --> 00:30:55.720
twenty seventeen early twenty eighteen, so
you can figure out what happened with bitcoin
476
00:30:55.759 --> 00:30:57.079
places there if you know, it
was not a good sign. And then
477
00:30:57.119 --> 00:31:02.720
when Bitcoin Futures ETFs were approved,
it was in October of twenty twenty one
478
00:31:02.960 --> 00:31:07.000
and very late October twenty twenty one, which coincided right around the peak of
479
00:31:07.079 --> 00:31:11.480
the peak of bitcoin around sixty nine
thousand, and it's gone down from there.
480
00:31:11.480 --> 00:31:15.359
So these launches do tend to coincide
right with like peaks, But we're
481
00:31:15.359 --> 00:31:18.519
in a very different as you mentioned, we're not near those types of peaks.
482
00:31:18.519 --> 00:31:23.039
Those were after the havings things like
that, and while we're in I
483
00:31:23.039 --> 00:31:27.880
would argueabullmarkt on crypto a bitcoin specifically, we're not at the same like mania
484
00:31:27.960 --> 00:31:33.480
level that we were both at both
times when CEM futures were coming online and
485
00:31:33.640 --> 00:31:38.079
when Bitcoin Bitcoin futures ETFs were coming
online. So that's the counter argument,
486
00:31:38.160 --> 00:31:45.079
right. These things also open the
ability for easier shorting. They're the futures.
487
00:31:45.079 --> 00:31:48.279
ETFs are very good trading vehicles,
not necessarily something you might want to
488
00:31:48.319 --> 00:31:51.559
hold for a very long term due
to rolling of futures, which I don't
489
00:31:51.559 --> 00:31:52.680
think we really need to get into, but where I'm happy to if you
490
00:31:52.720 --> 00:31:56.839
want. The other side of this
is you got to remember that gray scale
491
00:31:57.039 --> 00:32:04.119
has a lot of bitpoint three point
three percent I think of the global supply.
492
00:32:05.200 --> 00:32:08.000
So assuming this thing gets approved right
now, the main problem with GBTC
493
00:32:08.279 --> 00:32:12.400
is that you can't destroy those shares. And when I say destroy shares,
494
00:32:12.640 --> 00:32:15.920
you basically hand shares of the fun
back if you get the underlying assets.
495
00:32:15.920 --> 00:32:19.440
So in traditional ETF it's either equities
or bonds. You give the basket of
496
00:32:19.480 --> 00:32:21.839
equities, you get it back.
You give a basket, you give a
497
00:32:21.839 --> 00:32:24.480
basket of ETF shares, you get
the basket of equities back. Or gold
498
00:32:24.519 --> 00:32:28.240
you give the shares of the gold
DTF you get a physical gold back.
499
00:32:28.359 --> 00:32:32.319
Right in this case, GBTC would
convert at some point and all those all
500
00:32:32.359 --> 00:32:37.480
that bitcoin that's locked up could theoretically
be unlocked and sold. But there's no
501
00:32:37.519 --> 00:32:39.559
way to know exactly what's going to
happen. But there's a lot of It's
502
00:32:39.599 --> 00:32:43.599
not as simple as these things are
going to launch. It's a bowl run
503
00:32:44.359 --> 00:32:47.839
automatically. I think it will be
determined by like what else is happening in
504
00:32:47.880 --> 00:32:52.039
the macro environment. But I think
the one thing it does say, which
505
00:32:52.039 --> 00:32:55.680
I've hinted at before, is it's
like maybe not regulatory clarity, but more
506
00:32:55.759 --> 00:33:00.000
like regulatory acceptance in a way,
right, Like the SEC is kind of
507
00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:04.119
accepting that this is a thing.
From my point of view, I've been
508
00:33:04.200 --> 00:33:08.000
arguing this since twenty twenty, twenty
nineteen, really like people know what bitcoin
509
00:33:08.079 --> 00:33:10.960
is at this point, Like,
it's not like twenty seventeen when people are
510
00:33:10.960 --> 00:33:14.759
trying to get these things out the
door and the SEC was just not allowing
511
00:33:14.799 --> 00:33:16.319
it. I kind of understood it
back then because a lot of people didn't
512
00:33:16.319 --> 00:33:20.680
know what they're doing. Even if
Bitcoin goes to zero, like people putting
513
00:33:20.680 --> 00:33:22.960
money in a bitcoin ETF, like
they know what they're buying, you know
514
00:33:23.000 --> 00:33:28.079
what I mean. It's not like
any sort of scary thing. There could
515
00:33:28.079 --> 00:33:30.359
be manipulation happening, but for the
most part, people know what they're getting
516
00:33:30.359 --> 00:33:36.039
themselves into at this point. So
I think it's I think it's definitely a
517
00:33:36.039 --> 00:33:37.839
positive indicator. If these things are
proved. That would be crazy to argue
518
00:33:37.880 --> 00:33:42.039
the opposite, But I just want
to point out those other avenues that like,
519
00:33:42.119 --> 00:33:45.319
it's not as like, oh my
god, this is automatically institutions are
520
00:33:45.319 --> 00:33:50.240
going to come running like a charging
goal into this space, but it does.
521
00:33:50.359 --> 00:33:53.079
It is a good thing, and
advisors who want to put their client
522
00:33:53.079 --> 00:33:58.799
assets in these in crypto will probably
use those those ETFs now. They love
523
00:33:58.880 --> 00:34:02.680
the ts this. This would put
it on the traditional financial rails in a
524
00:34:02.759 --> 00:34:07.079
similar way that gray scale trusts have. Is upt in a way more efficient
525
00:34:07.159 --> 00:34:12.440
rapper than what that what's currently available. Yeah, that's a great point,
526
00:34:12.880 --> 00:34:15.199
and it's going to take time to
ramp up and all these folks to get
527
00:34:15.320 --> 00:34:19.679
up to speed at the rias and
so forth. But maybe it's more of
528
00:34:19.719 --> 00:34:22.159
the narrative, right, like you're
alluding to. It's just the fact clarity
529
00:34:23.280 --> 00:34:27.440
it was Potty TIFFs approved. Who
cares. Everybody's bullish now, right if
530
00:34:27.440 --> 00:34:31.039
there's actual capital coming in, But
everybody's bullish because of the signal, right
531
00:34:31.079 --> 00:34:37.239
that this is a good to go. So let's say Bigcoiny tip is approved,
532
00:34:37.280 --> 00:34:40.519
Becoin Spotty TIFFs approved, we're up
and running black rock. All these
533
00:34:40.559 --> 00:34:45.639
guys, Cathy, well, they're
all marketing doing their thing now. A
534
00:34:45.679 --> 00:34:50.000
bunch of players want to get ETFs
and all they're all coin basket ETFs.
535
00:34:50.039 --> 00:34:54.679
And look XRP. While that case
was split, you know of judge ruled
536
00:34:54.760 --> 00:34:59.760
ripple. You know has a victory
here, SEC has a victory here,
537
00:34:59.800 --> 00:35:04.320
But the main one was XRP intrinsically
not being security. So we could potentially
538
00:35:04.360 --> 00:35:07.960
see and XRP ETF being filed for. Do you expect that to be the
539
00:35:08.000 --> 00:35:13.800
next step after the Bitcoiny spotty tfs
have been approved. Yeah, so we're
540
00:35:13.920 --> 00:35:17.840
up to like eleven ethereum ETFs that
have been ethereum futures ETFs that have been
541
00:35:17.840 --> 00:35:22.239
applied for, and like that all
happened within the last couple of weeks.
542
00:35:22.639 --> 00:35:29.000
And if you had asked me,
like literally I'm on podcast like a couple
543
00:35:29.000 --> 00:35:32.679
of weeks ago saying eight futures ets
aren't coming anytime soon basically SEC. So
544
00:35:32.840 --> 00:35:37.360
I'm I'm eating it in the face
right now. But really, what that
545
00:35:37.800 --> 00:35:42.800
just signals, like this is a
complete one eight from the SEC. Essentially
546
00:35:42.880 --> 00:35:45.880
we saw the two x bitcoin futures
ETFs launch and I was saying, if
547
00:35:45.880 --> 00:35:49.280
the two x bitcoin futures ets launch
and they don't allow spot piccoin a ETFs,
548
00:35:49.320 --> 00:35:52.639
this is just absolutely ridiculous, Like
you are not protecting investors, right,
549
00:35:52.679 --> 00:35:54.679
Like that was that was one theory. The same issuer that managed to
550
00:35:54.719 --> 00:35:59.239
get that through filed for an ethereum
futures ETFs. And I'll get to the
551
00:35:59.280 --> 00:36:01.199
Ripple stuff in it, but I'll
just talk about the East stuff first and
552
00:36:01.159 --> 00:36:06.920
then we'll we'll get to remind me
and we'll go back to Ripple. This
553
00:36:07.119 --> 00:36:10.480
company Volatility shares, they launched the
two x bitcoin futures, So I use
554
00:36:10.559 --> 00:36:14.679
that as a reason, like they
have to pru spot. They can't,
555
00:36:14.719 --> 00:36:16.559
they can't allow this to launch,
and they have to prue spot. They
556
00:36:16.679 --> 00:36:21.239
also filed for an Ethereum future z
ETF on July twenty eighth, Friday,
557
00:36:21.639 --> 00:36:24.960
and then the following Tuesday everyone started
filing. So we haven't had a bunch
558
00:36:24.960 --> 00:36:30.039
of filings last week all the way
through Friday night of last week, of
559
00:36:30.199 --> 00:36:34.519
all these issuers filing for ethereum futures
ETFs, and we were hearing early in
560
00:36:34.519 --> 00:36:40.440
the week, is that the SEC
basically went to to those issuers instead,
561
00:36:40.480 --> 00:36:45.760
we're willing to take a look at
ethereum applications. Again, we don't know
562
00:36:45.800 --> 00:36:49.039
exactly what the work against. Wall
Street Journal confirmed this. Multiple crypto people
563
00:36:49.039 --> 00:36:52.199
converted Blake. Block Works was the
first one to say this. We were
564
00:36:52.239 --> 00:36:55.039
also hearing the same thing from people
whether we know in the industry that that's
565
00:36:55.039 --> 00:36:58.920
what had happened, and then block
Works and everyone followed up and we were
566
00:36:58.960 --> 00:37:00.119
like and I was like, yeah, we're here in the same stuff.
567
00:37:00.360 --> 00:37:02.880
So I backed off of it.
But I want to go back to why
568
00:37:04.000 --> 00:37:07.119
I was like so confident or not
super confident, but why I was so
569
00:37:07.800 --> 00:37:10.599
perished on the ability to get each
futures ets approved even though I thought they
570
00:37:10.639 --> 00:37:15.360
should have been approved. But we
had five filings in mid May and they
571
00:37:15.360 --> 00:37:19.760
were all forced to be withdrawn within
a couple of days. So these those
572
00:37:19.800 --> 00:37:23.360
forty ACTDTF I don't like. Specifically, there's two ways to file for an
573
00:37:23.360 --> 00:37:28.679
ETF. Since twenty nineteen, there
was this new rule. Essentially you file
574
00:37:28.679 --> 00:37:30.760
and then within seventy five days you
could launch unless the SEC tells you to
575
00:37:30.760 --> 00:37:35.119
withdraw. That's the new rule.
That's only for nineteen forty a dtfs.
576
00:37:35.679 --> 00:37:38.679
Spot ETFs cannot follow that. They
have to follow the old process. They
577
00:37:38.719 --> 00:37:42.559
are nineteen thirty three Act funds,
which you only get into the details,
578
00:37:42.559 --> 00:37:45.400
but that's where you see the two
hundred forty day clock and all these different
579
00:37:45.400 --> 00:37:50.239
decision deadlines. These other process the
Bitcoin, the first Bitcoin Futures ETFs,
580
00:37:50.280 --> 00:37:53.199
the Ethereum Future DTF at this point
are all forty Act products, which means
581
00:37:53.599 --> 00:37:57.000
they have that seventy five day clocks. So usually the way it works as
582
00:37:57.000 --> 00:38:00.159
the SEC says, hey, which
all not happening, And that happened in
583
00:38:00.199 --> 00:38:04.400
May of this year. They were
all withdrawn. So it showed us the
584
00:38:04.440 --> 00:38:07.559
SEC was just not willing to mess
with the theory of futures, which I
585
00:38:07.639 --> 00:38:09.119
disagreed with. Like, from my
point of view, once bitcoin future z
586
00:38:09.119 --> 00:38:13.280
etf launch, I didn't understand the
difference, like they should allow it here
587
00:38:13.280 --> 00:38:15.320
in future z ETFs to launch two, but the SEC was a no go.
588
00:38:15.519 --> 00:38:17.880
So I was wrong on that.
But I think what happened here is
589
00:38:19.320 --> 00:38:23.000
Volatility Shares and these other issuers.
They were like, you can't approve a
590
00:38:23.039 --> 00:38:27.079
future ztf, and especially if Gray
Scale is gonna win this lawsuit. So
591
00:38:27.079 --> 00:38:30.360
part of gray Scales's lawsuit is as
a regulator, and admit I've been saying
592
00:38:30.360 --> 00:38:34.599
this when they get go, you
can't approve future z ETFs which are derivative
593
00:38:34.679 --> 00:38:38.000
of spot market trading. Literally the
pricing of these future z ecfs and these
594
00:38:38.039 --> 00:38:44.039
futures themselves are based off the spot
markets that the SEC is saying are manipulated.
595
00:38:44.079 --> 00:38:45.639
So I don't know how you can
improve future z ETFs and not approved
596
00:38:45.679 --> 00:38:50.360
Spot. So theoretically, one avenue
that many people thought might happen is the
597
00:38:50.400 --> 00:38:53.639
SEC was gonna forced the list every
future's Bitcoin future z etf out there,
598
00:38:53.920 --> 00:38:59.199
and that way they wouldn't violate the
court's orders if they lose to gray scale.
599
00:39:00.119 --> 00:39:04.039
So I would make the same argument
for ethery and future CTF like you
600
00:39:04.079 --> 00:39:07.960
can't. It would be arbitrary and
capricious to argue, which are very specific
601
00:39:07.039 --> 00:39:12.159
legal terms. It would be capricious
to argue that you can allow bitcoint future
602
00:39:12.199 --> 00:39:15.719
c ets but not a theory of
future cts, which are all bull traded
603
00:39:15.760 --> 00:39:20.199
on the CME. Right, So
I think at some point the SEC has
604
00:39:20.199 --> 00:39:22.639
done the calculists and then like,
if somebody goes the quarter over this,
605
00:39:22.840 --> 00:39:25.440
we'll lose in the same way we
might lose to grain scale. So they
606
00:39:25.440 --> 00:39:28.440
were just like, all right,
we might just have to let these go
607
00:39:28.519 --> 00:39:32.920
through. So that's the word seventy
five percent chance odds that Etherean futures ETF
608
00:39:34.000 --> 00:39:37.119
gets approved in October, So the
first date for that volatility shares one is
609
00:39:37.159 --> 00:39:42.000
October eleventh, and the next star
on October sixteen, seventeen to eighteen,
610
00:39:42.119 --> 00:39:45.639
right around there, So we could
see a slew off Etherean future ets launch
611
00:39:45.679 --> 00:39:50.159
in October to slew a spot bitcoin
ETFs launch sometime in this fall as well,
612
00:39:50.719 --> 00:39:54.440
So James, it seems the pattern
or to the process here is the
613
00:39:54.519 --> 00:39:59.199
futures have to get approved first,
then the spot It seems like or can
614
00:39:59.239 --> 00:40:02.039
that change it in the feature so
that it shouldn't be the case, but
615
00:40:02.079 --> 00:40:06.800
it basically that's the way things have
operated so far. So if theory in
616
00:40:06.920 --> 00:40:12.119
theory, if these eight futures ETFs
do launch as some sort of move from
617
00:40:12.119 --> 00:40:15.760
the SEC, like you will get
into Rippell now, but absent some sort
618
00:40:15.800 --> 00:40:19.800
of move from the SEC claiming it
theory to be a security or some other
619
00:40:19.840 --> 00:40:23.760
reason why the SEC isn't going to
allow spot ethereum or these theory and future
620
00:40:24.159 --> 00:40:28.239
I mean, there's nothing saying the
SEC. The SEC's fine to tell people
621
00:40:28.280 --> 00:40:30.000
come and apply and then a few
weeks later deny them. It'd just be
622
00:40:30.119 --> 00:40:32.840
very out of the ordinary. It
would not be a normal move from them,
623
00:40:32.920 --> 00:40:38.800
would be precedent breaking essentially. So
that's why we're so pro or positive
624
00:40:38.800 --> 00:40:42.440
on the fact that we think if
theory and futures ETFs are going to come
625
00:40:42.440 --> 00:40:46.480
alive, Yeah, and then eighth
spot ets would come at some point online
626
00:40:46.760 --> 00:40:51.559
at least two hundred and forty days
if not more, from from when somebody
627
00:40:51.599 --> 00:40:57.360
files for one of those eth spot
ETFs. So let's talk about rebel ruling
628
00:40:57.440 --> 00:41:00.239
because of the impact from the other
all coins, you know, judge ruling
629
00:41:00.239 --> 00:41:05.199
secondary market sales or not securities and
so on and so forth. You know,
630
00:41:05.199 --> 00:41:09.840
what are your thoughts in that ruling
And could XRP still be an asset
631
00:41:10.360 --> 00:41:16.599
given it has some level of clarity
by law from the ruling be approved for
632
00:41:16.639 --> 00:41:21.960
a future is ETF as well as
body ta Yeah, I just I don't
633
00:41:22.000 --> 00:41:28.440
think that XRP is ever gonna get
through there the secs doors essentially, not
634
00:41:28.480 --> 00:41:31.199
anytime soon, even even after that
that loss right and I would call it
635
00:41:31.239 --> 00:41:35.119
a half loss because it kind of
was a loss for Ripple and Ripple Labs,
636
00:41:35.920 --> 00:41:37.840
but a win for the broader crypto
industry because I think what it really
637
00:41:37.880 --> 00:41:42.360
does as far as I'm concerned,
I've talked to we have a litigation and
638
00:41:42.400 --> 00:41:45.280
unless I so that we have a
team of people that look at the stuff,
639
00:41:45.519 --> 00:41:47.320
it's really a win for a coin
base in the crypto industry because it's
640
00:41:47.320 --> 00:41:51.719
like you can't just blank it call
all of these things securities, right,
641
00:41:51.760 --> 00:41:55.800
Like you just can't do that.
And but then again there's other there's other
642
00:41:55.880 --> 00:42:00.679
judges that like in the terror case
and stuff and have like put down the
643
00:42:00.760 --> 00:42:04.840
Judge Tores's order in the Ripple case. There's a lot of new on Like
644
00:42:04.880 --> 00:42:07.360
some of the stuff in Judge George's
case didn't even make sense to me even
645
00:42:07.400 --> 00:42:13.800
as a pro crypto, pro digital
asset guy. So there's some arguments to
646
00:42:13.840 --> 00:42:15.840
be had. It's basically what it
needs to happen, and we keep going
647
00:42:15.880 --> 00:42:20.039
back. We need clarity. Yeah, Congress needs to come in and issue
648
00:42:20.119 --> 00:42:27.119
laws that said, I don't see
the SEC really approving. First of all,
649
00:42:27.360 --> 00:42:31.119
CME would have to list x RP
futures before a future's ETF would launch,
650
00:42:31.400 --> 00:42:36.960
and I can't imagine them allowing a
spot ripple ETF anytime soon. But
651
00:42:36.960 --> 00:42:39.599
again, like I said three weeks
ago, I said, I didn't think
652
00:42:39.840 --> 00:42:44.639
etherean futures ets would becoming anytime soon
unless there's a huge change in the SEC.
653
00:42:44.760 --> 00:42:47.159
So theoretically there could be. But
the SEC is said in that terror
654
00:42:47.159 --> 00:42:51.559
case and multiple other cases that they
believe Judge Torre has got it wrong in
655
00:42:51.599 --> 00:42:54.320
many instances. But when I really
think, like I'll just go back to
656
00:42:54.320 --> 00:42:58.159
what I said initially, it just
kind of makes it so like the SEC
657
00:42:58.320 --> 00:43:00.719
just can't blank and call all these
things secure. There's more nuance there.
658
00:43:01.559 --> 00:43:05.880
Yeah. Absolutely, And I think
a lot of people were calling out Gary
659
00:43:05.920 --> 00:43:07.840
Agains here about that, and I
noticed he updated some of his statements.
660
00:43:07.920 --> 00:43:14.360
He and he said, without pre
judging, Yeah, but to your point,
661
00:43:14.400 --> 00:43:16.239
yeah, I could see that.
You know, they're probably so pissed
662
00:43:16.239 --> 00:43:22.280
off about the Ripple ruling that yet
XRP any applications are not gonna make it
663
00:43:22.440 --> 00:43:27.920
through just from you know, the
whole organization there, and they're not going
664
00:43:27.960 --> 00:43:32.039
to be happy about that. So
I want to also get your thoughts on,
665
00:43:32.920 --> 00:43:36.519
uh, you know, the two
bills that are out there, Lummis
666
00:43:36.559 --> 00:43:40.480
Jill Brand, Patrick McHenry and Glenn
Thompson bills which address a lot what we
667
00:43:40.519 --> 00:43:44.639
were just talking about. Any thoughts
on what might be the leader. I
668
00:43:44.679 --> 00:43:49.360
know the Patrick McHenry version was marked
up in the House, some approvals still
669
00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:52.079
has to go get you know,
voted on in the House floor. But
670
00:43:52.119 --> 00:43:54.559
what are your thoughts on these bills? Yeah, So we actually I have
671
00:43:54.639 --> 00:43:59.239
a colleague who's a regulatory analyst,
so I talked about litigation ls I thought
672
00:43:59.360 --> 00:44:04.719
Michael McLoone macro side. Then we
have somebody in Jamie Douglas Coots who's on
673
00:44:04.719 --> 00:44:08.159
Twitter who's our crypto analyst based in
Australia. And then Nathan Deans are regulations
674
00:44:08.280 --> 00:44:14.480
and law, uh not law,
and like congressional and all those things,
675
00:44:14.480 --> 00:44:19.760
so he covers what's going on in
Congress very closely. He was more bullish
676
00:44:19.760 --> 00:44:22.800
that we get some sort of stable
coin bill potentially this year. Seemed very
677
00:44:22.800 --> 00:44:31.679
skeptical that we'd actually get one of
these uh crypto environments. What what word
678
00:44:31.679 --> 00:44:34.920
did you use? What? What? What? What did you use describe
679
00:44:34.920 --> 00:44:43.239
these these uh laws, these bills? Uh crypt I don't know cryptic work.
680
00:44:43.360 --> 00:44:45.679
I guess yeah, yeah, I
guess framework would be the right word.
681
00:44:45.760 --> 00:44:50.559
He seemed to think they would be
possible like next year. But I
682
00:44:50.840 --> 00:44:53.400
won't pretend to be like some super
knowledgeable person on these, so I'll just
683
00:44:53.400 --> 00:44:59.119
like kind of defer to what he's
saying. But it basically the way that
684
00:44:59.159 --> 00:45:01.880
I'm gathering from talking to different people
is like the pressure is ramping up from
685
00:45:01.920 --> 00:45:07.639
all different angles, and like there's
a lot of things happening from Congress in
686
00:45:07.679 --> 00:45:13.480
the SEC that are just completely inflammatory, if you will, So I think
687
00:45:13.480 --> 00:45:16.239
they're going to have to be a
little more nuanced in the way they handle
688
00:45:16.320 --> 00:45:21.920
things, not as hardlines and I
think the SEC has been trying to do
689
00:45:22.000 --> 00:45:24.639
things that they don't have the power
to do, and they're just trying to
690
00:45:24.679 --> 00:45:30.840
force it through the courts and get
power through through court decisions. And really
691
00:45:30.880 --> 00:45:34.599
they need to be given that power
through Congress as far as I'm concerned from
692
00:45:34.599 --> 00:45:38.639
from things that I read from people
more knowledgeable than me. So we need
693
00:45:38.679 --> 00:45:42.239
these bills, or at least some
version of these bills, or maybe a
694
00:45:42.280 --> 00:45:45.679
combination of these bills to get through
both the House and the Senate before we
695
00:45:45.719 --> 00:45:51.039
get any sort of true regulatory clarity. But for the time being, on
696
00:45:51.119 --> 00:45:54.280
my front, I think the SEC
just approving these bitcoin and each future ets
697
00:45:54.320 --> 00:46:00.519
would be providing a lot of regulatory
I don't know, I don't know clarities
698
00:46:00.639 --> 00:46:06.119
right where, but it would be
providing some regulatory clarity to any investors looking
699
00:46:06.159 --> 00:46:08.599
to invest in this space or looking
to hold this Yeah, and hopefully they
700
00:46:08.599 --> 00:46:15.800
could get something this year before the
crazy election cycle next year. Yeah.
701
00:46:15.840 --> 00:46:17.840
I mean, all the Republican candidates
are pro bitcoin, right, so,
702
00:46:19.840 --> 00:46:24.199
and then you have rfka or coming
out here saying that there he's pro bitcoin
703
00:46:24.280 --> 00:46:27.239
as well. I don't, I
don't know, We'll see I don't know
704
00:46:27.239 --> 00:46:30.719
how much all of them are actually
pro crypto and pro bitcoin, but it's
705
00:46:30.760 --> 00:46:34.280
certainly at the point that the president. If you had talked to people in
706
00:46:34.360 --> 00:46:40.760
bitcoin and crypto seven years ago and
found out that all the political and presidential
707
00:46:40.800 --> 00:46:46.840
candidates have to have a bitcoin stance
and opinion, they'd say it's it's it's
708
00:46:46.840 --> 00:46:51.360
a win for the industry. So
time will tell. Yeah, I mean,
709
00:46:51.400 --> 00:46:54.280
crypto is seeping into the mainstream pop
culture, right, politicians can't ignore
710
00:46:54.360 --> 00:46:59.280
celebrities just popping up, and I
think that's a sign of adoption and growth.
711
00:46:59.320 --> 00:47:02.400
So very bullish, uh, you
know, from a investing standpoint and
712
00:47:02.760 --> 00:47:06.840
adoption standpoint. I know, we
almost up on time, so I'm gonna
713
00:47:06.840 --> 00:47:08.960
ask you a couple more questions and
we'll wrap it up. Any thoughts on
714
00:47:09.039 --> 00:47:14.920
the PayPal stable coin I was launched
yesterday on the Ethereum blockchain. It seems
715
00:47:15.360 --> 00:47:21.679
a huge, huge validation of the
real world application utility of blockchain and improving
716
00:47:21.719 --> 00:47:27.000
payments. And they did it on
a permission less uh blockchain as in Ethereum.
717
00:47:27.400 --> 00:47:30.639
Second, you know, by market
cap on the list, So I
718
00:47:30.639 --> 00:47:35.880
think that's pretty incredible. Yeah,
I mean, one, it just shows
719
00:47:36.000 --> 00:47:39.559
that like there is real interest from
incumbent players in the trad five space.
720
00:47:40.360 --> 00:47:46.440
This case, obviously it's just a
fintech company, so I think that's a
721
00:47:46.480 --> 00:47:50.639
positive aspect here. The other the
other part of this is that's unique is
722
00:47:50.679 --> 00:47:54.880
like they went after finance, specifically
working with Paxos. Now Paxos is working
723
00:47:54.920 --> 00:48:00.559
with PayPal and just kind of gives
us a little more credence into like maybe
724
00:48:00.559 --> 00:48:05.760
what's going on from a higher level
is they're pushing this more towards partners they
725
00:48:05.800 --> 00:48:08.519
trust, so away from finance,
maybe a little bit towards coin based via
726
00:48:08.559 --> 00:48:13.880
this SA. So yes, they're
suing coin based, but maybe I'm sure
727
00:48:13.920 --> 00:48:16.079
the SEC would much prefer everyone to
be on coin based on finance, based
728
00:48:16.119 --> 00:48:22.239
on the lawsuits they've filed and the
claims they've made in that lawsuit. And
729
00:48:22.280 --> 00:48:25.480
this would also signify kind of like
we'd rather like, if all this crypto
730
00:48:25.480 --> 00:48:30.559
stuff is going to happen, we'd
rather do with like regulated and people within
731
00:48:30.639 --> 00:48:36.760
our umbrella that we have oversight over, which some crypto cypherpunk people would definitely
732
00:48:36.800 --> 00:48:38.599
say is a bad thing, and
I've seen it on Twitter people calling it
733
00:48:38.639 --> 00:48:42.960
a bad thing. But I think
it just shows that the SEC again,
734
00:48:43.000 --> 00:48:47.400
and other regulators in this instance are
kind of being forced to deal with what's
735
00:48:47.400 --> 00:48:53.719
actually happening in the ground. Yeah, and world Coin, what are your
736
00:48:53.719 --> 00:48:58.000
thoughts on Sam Altman's project. You're
going to get your eyes scanned to get
737
00:48:58.039 --> 00:49:02.079
some world coin its tokens. I
actually just listen to a podcast one of
738
00:49:02.079 --> 00:49:07.199
the founders of world coin. I
mean, I get the problem they're trying
739
00:49:07.199 --> 00:49:09.239
to solve, right, Like,
there are going to be a problem with
740
00:49:09.320 --> 00:49:13.039
lots of bots, But there's enough
bots on Twitter as it is. As
741
00:49:13.039 --> 00:49:15.559
Ai becomes better and better and better, there's going to be a million of
742
00:49:15.559 --> 00:49:19.480
them, So proofy human makes sense. I don't really have a strong opinion
743
00:49:19.719 --> 00:49:22.079
on the tokenomics or anything like that. It seems very sketchy to me,
744
00:49:22.079 --> 00:49:25.119
but I'm not an expert on it. I'm interesting in it. Maybe they'll
745
00:49:25.239 --> 00:49:29.840
maybe they have figured out a way
to do proof of person, but there's
746
00:49:29.840 --> 00:49:31.719
obviously people a lot smarter than me
criticizing the hell out of them, and
747
00:49:32.079 --> 00:49:36.880
there's obviously people a lot smarter than
me working on world Coin's behalf. So
748
00:49:37.760 --> 00:49:40.559
I'm kind of just in a wait
and see type mode. But it's super
749
00:49:40.639 --> 00:49:45.840
interesting, I guess, is my
view here? But I'm not somebody I
750
00:49:45.840 --> 00:49:50.159
would trust their opinion or say I
have a better understanding than anyone else.
751
00:49:50.880 --> 00:49:52.599
Yeah, I mean, and to
your point, I absolutely understand the problem
752
00:49:52.599 --> 00:49:54.719
they're trying to solve, and you
know, some of the things you mentioned
753
00:49:54.840 --> 00:49:59.000
UBI and so forth, these are
problems are going to come up in the
754
00:49:59.039 --> 00:50:06.119
economy, in the world. But
the orbitus dystopian man. So it's cool
755
00:50:06.159 --> 00:50:07.400
to look at, Like part of
me just wants to see one, but
756
00:50:07.440 --> 00:50:15.639
maybe at my irispond scan, even
without my acceptance or approval. But yeah,
757
00:50:15.679 --> 00:50:17.840
I would love to see one in
person. So That's where I'm at
758
00:50:17.960 --> 00:50:21.599
right now. But again, like, yeah, the part of it is
759
00:50:21.639 --> 00:50:24.519
like this is going to sound bad
to cryptoserver funks, but like I already
760
00:50:24.559 --> 00:50:29.079
have all of my data everywhere,
Like I'm on a bunch of social media
761
00:50:29.119 --> 00:50:31.800
platforms. I have like accepted all
this stuff. Like I've kind of accepted
762
00:50:31.800 --> 00:50:35.000
the fact that I know a lot
of people would be mad at me for
763
00:50:35.039 --> 00:50:37.920
saying this, but like I'm at
the point where like it's already gone,
764
00:50:37.039 --> 00:50:42.920
Like people have access to me no
matter what as it is. So it's
765
00:50:42.920 --> 00:50:45.039
true, Yeah, I'm not as
worried about it as many other people,
766
00:50:45.039 --> 00:50:50.119
which I know plenty of people in
the crypto and big specifically bitcoint one,
767
00:50:50.400 --> 00:50:57.159
your own sovereign currency, owning yourself, stuff like that. So yeah,
768
00:50:57.199 --> 00:51:00.280
I'm not as concerned as most people, but I am definitely take it with
769
00:51:00.320 --> 00:51:02.159
a grain assault. Yeah, I'm
of the same mindset. I know.
770
00:51:02.440 --> 00:51:07.599
Look, the bitcoin hardcore maximalist they
have that religious fervor anything they want to
771
00:51:07.639 --> 00:51:12.079
hammer it would hammer, right.
But look, at the end of the
772
00:51:12.199 --> 00:51:15.960
day, the government has your thumb
print and everything about you, Facebook,
773
00:51:16.000 --> 00:51:22.039
Instagram, everything has some level of
information about you. They already have data
774
00:51:22.119 --> 00:51:24.719
mind it, so they retarget you
for ads and everything. You know.
775
00:51:25.320 --> 00:51:28.800
Yeah, it helps me get more
targeted ads. I'm all for it.
776
00:51:30.199 --> 00:51:35.079
Yeah, I don't know, we'll
see. And also those bitcoin maxi's,
777
00:51:35.079 --> 00:51:38.480
obviously they're very good for like maintaining
the statscope of the bitcoin ecosystem. Some
778
00:51:38.519 --> 00:51:43.679
of them are a little aggressive in
my opinion, but like they're a valuable
779
00:51:43.719 --> 00:51:47.679
add to the ecosystem as far as
I've concerned, I just am not one
780
00:51:47.719 --> 00:51:52.599
of those people personally. Yeah,
all right, James wrap up questions.
781
00:51:52.840 --> 00:51:54.519
If you could create your own metaverse, where would you go to? What
782
00:51:54.559 --> 00:52:00.440
would it be about. You said
these questions beforehand, and I was like,
783
00:52:00.440 --> 00:52:02.960
I need to think about that one, and I completely forgot to think
784
00:52:02.960 --> 00:52:07.559
about that one. Uh, I
have I have no idea I got,
785
00:52:07.639 --> 00:52:13.039
I got nothing. I know nothing
about the metaverse aside from Mark Zuckerberg has
786
00:52:13.039 --> 00:52:20.280
bet as life on it and losing
billions everything like rapid fire questions. Favorite
787
00:52:20.320 --> 00:52:27.519
food, uh Buffalo wings, favorite
musician or band or steak a sctould go
788
00:52:27.599 --> 00:52:32.599
to a Ribby steak, red hot
chili peppers. Oh no, Billy Joel,
789
00:52:32.679 --> 00:52:37.559
I'll go Billy Joel. Of course
I'm a little young for that,
790
00:52:37.599 --> 00:52:42.119
but I I love Billy Joel.
Oh me too, man? Like,
791
00:52:42.239 --> 00:52:45.960
Look, I'm not I'm not demographic
that that fits Billy Joel fan Billy Joel.
792
00:52:45.960 --> 00:52:47.880
I'm look, I play guitar.
I'm too music, and I'm like
793
00:52:47.920 --> 00:52:51.480
Billy Joel is good man. I
can listen to them all day. Ye
794
00:52:52.159 --> 00:52:57.599
favorite movie Shawshank Redemption. I just
watched that the other day. It's a
795
00:52:57.599 --> 00:53:02.760
good movie. Uh. Favorite book, so I love like the Wheel of
796
00:53:02.800 --> 00:53:07.239
Time and fantasy type series. But
for this, I'll also say I'm going
797
00:53:07.280 --> 00:53:13.280
to give two options here that like
are more related to Crypto billion Dollars Whale,
798
00:53:13.440 --> 00:53:16.719
which is about the one MDB scandal. Basically, this guy stiled billions
799
00:53:16.760 --> 00:53:22.199
of dollars from Malaysia and just a
fraud that was able to continue going is
800
00:53:22.559 --> 00:53:25.440
the story reads like fiction. And
same with Bad Blood, which is not
801
00:53:25.519 --> 00:53:29.840
Elizabeth Holmes. Those are two stories
that I've read in the last like six
802
00:53:29.920 --> 00:53:32.679
seven years whenever it is, and
like it always every I keep seeing fraud
803
00:53:32.840 --> 00:53:37.239
like all over the place in crypto
and just reading those, It's just amazing
804
00:53:37.239 --> 00:53:40.199
how people can get sucked in into
what's going on, and like I always
805
00:53:40.280 --> 00:53:44.119
kind of like I'm super bullish on
these things. Like recently, I'm like
806
00:53:44.400 --> 00:53:49.039
obsessed with the LK ninety nine superconductor
stuff all over the internet and I can't
807
00:53:49.039 --> 00:53:51.480
get enough of it. But I'm
like I go back and I think about
808
00:53:51.519 --> 00:53:53.880
these people who committed fraud and just
lied to people for years and years and
809
00:53:53.960 --> 00:53:57.639
years and got away with it.
So like I always go back to it
810
00:53:57.639 --> 00:54:00.239
and think about, like what could
be the altar the benefit here and aren't
811
00:54:00.239 --> 00:54:04.639
they actually doing what they're say they're
doing? Look for those signs that we're
812
00:54:04.719 --> 00:54:07.679
there for Joe Low and one MDP
and Elizabeth Holmes and in Bad Blood.
813
00:54:07.760 --> 00:54:14.000
So those two books have like really
changed the way I look at things,
814
00:54:14.000 --> 00:54:16.840
and particularly in relation to crypto as
as I'm sure you're aware with all the
815
00:54:17.400 --> 00:54:22.239
frauds we've seen with Celtia s FDx
or I should I guess I should say
816
00:54:22.280 --> 00:54:25.159
alleged frauds, but yeah, yeah, no, it's a great point.
817
00:54:25.280 --> 00:54:29.719
Human psychology, right, never fails. It's it's just a different scheme,
818
00:54:29.800 --> 00:54:34.400
a different structure, different company,
different name, but human psychology still remains
819
00:54:34.440 --> 00:54:37.679
the same. We're still human moving
as we move forward and we get fooled.
820
00:54:38.880 --> 00:54:42.480
And when you're not working at Bloomberg, what are you doing for fun
821
00:54:42.519 --> 00:54:46.000
As a hobby. I'm an endurance
runner, so I'm a runner, but
822
00:54:46.000 --> 00:54:51.360
I like endorance sports in general,
biking, running, anything like that,
823
00:54:51.559 --> 00:54:53.280
and soccer. I played soccer most
of my life, so I'm a big
824
00:54:53.320 --> 00:54:58.039
soccer player. Don't do that as
much anymore. But yeah, running and
825
00:54:58.159 --> 00:55:01.960
endurance type events are really uh my
go to I did in college and try
826
00:55:02.039 --> 00:55:06.519
to. I'm a shell of my
former self, but I still enjoy doing
827
00:55:06.519 --> 00:55:08.679
it once in a while. James, pleasure chatting with you, my friend.
828
00:55:08.679 --> 00:55:12.800
I'll have to have you back on
as you know, we get to
829
00:55:12.920 --> 00:55:17.159
the the end the ninth inning on
these spot ETF approvals, and we'll talk
830
00:55:17.159 --> 00:55:21.000
more about that, But thank you
for joining me. Yes, we're both
831
00:55:21.000 --> 00:55:23.159
in Jersey and we'll do that one
in person. I look forward to it.
1
00:00:06.639 --> 00:00:10.599
This content is brought to you by
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your coins. If you'd like to
learn more about Uphold, please visit the
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link in the description. Welcome back
to the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
10
00:00:42.240 --> 00:00:47.000
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. With
me today is James Safer, who's an
11
00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:51.039
ETF research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
James, great to have you on the
12
00:00:51.039 --> 00:00:53.880
show. Yeah, thanks for having
me. I'm looking forward to it.
13
00:00:54.520 --> 00:00:59.880
James. I saw a tweet from
you showing that the percentage increase of a
14
00:01:00.359 --> 00:01:03.960
the chances of an approval of a
bigcoin spotty TF has been increased by you
15
00:01:03.040 --> 00:01:06.400
and the folks at Bloomberg, and
I was like, I gotta get you
16
00:01:06.480 --> 00:01:11.480
on here to talk about it because
everybody's waiting in anticipation for a SPOTTYTF approval.
17
00:01:11.840 --> 00:01:15.599
But before we get there, tell
us about yourself. You know where
18
00:01:15.640 --> 00:01:19.439
you're from. Would you grow up
in your professional background? Yeah? So
19
00:01:19.959 --> 00:01:23.519
I'm in New Jersey, native born
and raised all the way through. I
20
00:01:23.519 --> 00:01:26.920
went to college at the College New
Jersey study financial accounting and started working at
21
00:01:26.959 --> 00:01:30.359
Bloomberg right out of school. Ironically, I'm not in New Jersey on these
22
00:01:30.400 --> 00:01:33.040
coasts right now. I'm actually in
Saint Louis, which we were just talking
23
00:01:33.040 --> 00:01:38.680
about beforehand, but visiting my girlfriend
who's out here for residency. So yeah,
24
00:01:38.840 --> 00:01:44.239
started at Bloomberg right out of school
was very I had done some internships
25
00:01:44.280 --> 00:01:47.439
of hedge funds, so did a
lot of stuff with funds data so ETF's
26
00:01:47.439 --> 00:01:49.439
hedge funds, mutual funds, that
type of stuff. And Eric Baccuni,
27
00:01:49.480 --> 00:01:53.560
who's my current boss, I did
a lot of work for him when I
28
00:01:53.680 --> 00:01:57.439
was When I was in Bloomberg's data
department, and he went over he had
29
00:01:57.480 --> 00:02:00.840
written books on ETFs and they brought
him over to Blue Intelligence, which is
30
00:02:00.840 --> 00:02:05.040
Bloombridge Research arm. So when I
joined him in Bloomberg, intelligence. I
31
00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:07.759
was split between two people. I
was working with Eric on the ETF and
32
00:02:07.759 --> 00:02:14.039
fun side and Mike McLoone on the
commodity side. And right after I joined,
33
00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:16.599
Mike McGlone decided he was interested.
He's like, do you know anything
34
00:02:16.599 --> 00:02:21.039
about cryptos? And I was like
do I I've spent a lot of my
35
00:02:21.080 --> 00:02:23.159
personal time researching this. So I
helped bring Mike McLoone up, so we
36
00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:30.439
cover cryptos from like strategic and commodities
global macro perspective. On his side,
37
00:02:30.439 --> 00:02:35.599
we also have a crypto analyst who
does bottoms up like on chain type analysis,
38
00:02:35.599 --> 00:02:38.759
things like that of different of the
major cryptos and digital assets however you
39
00:02:38.800 --> 00:02:44.439
want to describe it. So we
have a whole team of people that do
40
00:02:44.479 --> 00:02:50.159
this type of stuff. So naturally, I actually when I eventually got promoted
41
00:02:50.159 --> 00:02:53.960
to a full time analyst, I
went to the et F side because that's
42
00:02:53.960 --> 00:02:57.719
really where my expertise was, not
commodities, but I do specifically cover our
43
00:02:57.719 --> 00:03:02.159
commodities ETFs, and obviously because of
that I have been I have sit squarely
44
00:03:02.159 --> 00:03:07.319
and like the two diagrams of my
area of expertise and interest is ETPPS and
45
00:03:07.400 --> 00:03:12.759
funds and crypto and commodities and alternative
assets. So use these crypto funds,
46
00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:16.479
these bitcoin applications and the theorem futures
applications that like right in my like the
47
00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:23.159
overlapping part of my my diagram.
Essentially, that's awesome. So your personal
48
00:03:23.240 --> 00:03:25.360
journey in discovering crypto, you know, you wanted to folks ask you,
49
00:03:25.400 --> 00:03:29.759
do you know anything about crypto?
What was your first encounter and what was
50
00:03:29.759 --> 00:03:34.639
your AHA moment? Yeah, so
they're as like most people. My first
51
00:03:34.719 --> 00:03:38.400
encounter was not my AHA moment,
So my freshman year in college, so
52
00:03:38.520 --> 00:03:43.680
this would have been spring of twenty
fourteen. I had a suite mate who
53
00:03:43.759 --> 00:03:46.080
was like telling me, now I
know it was bitcoin. I didn't understand
54
00:03:46.120 --> 00:03:49.520
what he was saying. I don't
remember him saying that, but he was
55
00:03:49.639 --> 00:03:53.439
interested in you like looking at the
silk road, talking about this decentralized thing,
56
00:03:53.120 --> 00:03:57.360
like talking about mining, and I
let him download the bitcoin minor software.
57
00:03:57.360 --> 00:03:59.680
I was like, yeah, fine, you can use my computer and
58
00:04:00.080 --> 00:04:02.080
put it on my laptop and you
can get some of these free like magic
59
00:04:02.120 --> 00:04:06.400
coins, like I don't care.
Ultimately that that laptop completely crashed, the
60
00:04:06.439 --> 00:04:10.800
hard drive completely malfunctioned, that I
actually lost like a ten page paper.
61
00:04:10.879 --> 00:04:15.360
So for years my association with crypto
and bitcoin was like it ruined my computer.
62
00:04:15.560 --> 00:04:18.240
There's no way, like I don't
know for sure that that's what happened,
63
00:04:18.240 --> 00:04:24.720
but like in my mind, like
the timing was like too overlapping for
64
00:04:24.759 --> 00:04:29.360
that not to have been part of
the cause. But yeah, So basically
65
00:04:29.399 --> 00:04:31.800
this guy who I reached out,
So in twenty sixteen, the next step
66
00:04:31.839 --> 00:04:36.240
was when I really got reintroduced to
it. Kathy Wood, who we work
67
00:04:36.279 --> 00:04:42.120
with a lot of runs ARC Investment
Management. She's like known for her ETFs.
68
00:04:42.120 --> 00:04:44.399
She was one of the first people. I think she was the first
69
00:04:44.399 --> 00:04:46.480
public fund to invest in crypto in
some way when she bought GBTC in like
70
00:04:46.519 --> 00:04:51.040
twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, and
I was actually at like a traditional finance
71
00:04:51.120 --> 00:04:55.600
conference and she was up on stage
and she spent the entire time on stage
72
00:04:56.040 --> 00:05:01.079
just talking about bitcoin. They wrote
bitcoin, like not the white paper,
73
00:05:01.120 --> 00:05:03.800
but their own white paper about why
they thought it was beneficial, where it
74
00:05:03.839 --> 00:05:06.319
could go, And that's when I
really got hooked. So that was like
75
00:05:06.319 --> 00:05:11.120
the fall of twenty sixteen. So
I opened my first coin base and crypto
76
00:05:11.240 --> 00:05:14.519
Gemini accounts actually around that time.
So that's when I first started diving in
77
00:05:14.560 --> 00:05:16.240
and really learning about it, and
obviously, like a few months later,
78
00:05:16.800 --> 00:05:20.439
things kind of went crazy, and
in the actually in late twenty seventeen,
79
00:05:20.439 --> 00:05:25.160
when things were really at their heyday, we were actually writing it was a
80
00:05:25.160 --> 00:05:29.639
bubble. Mike mcgloan was getting ripped
apart for saying it was a bubble at
81
00:05:29.680 --> 00:05:32.879
the time by crypto Twitter. As
you can imagine, he's now a crypto
82
00:05:32.920 --> 00:05:35.800
bowl if you will, but he
was very adamant calling it a bubble at
83
00:05:35.800 --> 00:05:39.959
the time. I reached out to
Mike, the guy that put the software
84
00:05:39.959 --> 00:05:43.800
on might pick on my laptop and
he and he never responded to me and
85
00:05:43.879 --> 00:05:47.279
ultimately deleted any trace of himself in
the Internet. So he's either I'm hoping
86
00:05:47.279 --> 00:05:51.680
he just like has like a crypto
multi millionaire, or however much, but
87
00:05:51.759 --> 00:05:56.480
who knows. I'm assuming most likely
he probably had his money on Silk Road
88
00:05:56.480 --> 00:05:59.319
if he did and it's long gone, or Mount Gox the odds of him
89
00:05:59.319 --> 00:06:01.120
actually having it somewhere, but who
knows. I've never been able to get
90
00:06:01.160 --> 00:06:03.279
in touch with them, and anyone
I've asked that we also used to know
91
00:06:03.360 --> 00:06:09.439
him hasn't heard or seen him from
him since college. Well hopefully to your
92
00:06:09.480 --> 00:06:13.360
point, it's not the latter,
it's the former of he became. Actually,
93
00:06:13.480 --> 00:06:15.360
I just realized. I just realized. I said twenty fourteen. I
94
00:06:15.480 --> 00:06:20.199
graduated in twenty fourteen, so it
was spring of twenty eleven, so it
95
00:06:20.240 --> 00:06:25.759
was even way earlier than that.
But yeah, the point still remains the
96
00:06:25.759 --> 00:06:29.480
same. Oh yeah, I mean, so you could be considered a crypto
97
00:06:29.560 --> 00:06:32.199
og man. I mean, you
know, I had no interest. I
98
00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:35.680
thought it was fake. I didn't. Yeah, like most people you read
99
00:06:35.720 --> 00:06:39.319
about the first time, you're like, this is ridiculous, and then like
100
00:06:39.360 --> 00:06:42.279
you really come back and for the
most part, anyone who's really died in
101
00:06:42.319 --> 00:06:44.800
I feel like everyone I talked to
was like they heard about it, thought
102
00:06:44.800 --> 00:06:47.560
it was bs, and came back
to and we're like, actually, this
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00:06:47.639 --> 00:06:53.560
might have something to it. So
for sure. So James, you know,
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00:06:53.639 --> 00:06:58.199
you have this experience of looking at
trad FI and ETFs and how things
105
00:06:58.199 --> 00:07:01.480
have progressed there and how that market
is set up for different types of ets.
106
00:07:01.480 --> 00:07:09.160
What was your first impression or thought
when you heard black Rock is applying
107
00:07:09.199 --> 00:07:14.000
for a big coins body TF.
Very good question. So before that we
108
00:07:14.040 --> 00:07:16.839
would so we were officially at like
one percent odds. I was probably like
109
00:07:16.920 --> 00:07:19.519
closer to ten percent odds that we
got an ETF this year, because I
110
00:07:19.519 --> 00:07:24.160
thought like there was always a chance
that Congress would do something like what It
111
00:07:24.240 --> 00:07:29.560
wasn't zero, but we were pretty
low. ARC was the only active application
112
00:07:29.720 --> 00:07:31.560
Kathy Woods company. ARC was partnered
with twenty one Years, which is an
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00:07:31.560 --> 00:07:36.360
ETF issuer. They have the most
crypto ETFs anywhere in the world as an
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00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:42.000
issuer, They're mostly in Europe.
They're almost all in Europe, So we
115
00:07:42.040 --> 00:07:44.680
just thought the odds were pretty slim. We were waiting on the gray scale
116
00:07:44.720 --> 00:07:47.560
case. We were very bullish on
the gray scale case, which we can
117
00:07:47.560 --> 00:07:50.720
get into a little bit, but
basically, we came out early, right
118
00:07:50.759 --> 00:07:55.000
after oral arguments in March and said
that we had a seven percent chance of
119
00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:57.839
a gray scale approval. So those
odds had gone up a bit, but
120
00:07:57.879 --> 00:08:03.879
we still expected the SEC to Basically, we thought great Skill would win,
121
00:08:03.879 --> 00:08:05.759
but that the SEC would still come
back and deny for different reasons. That
122
00:08:05.800 --> 00:08:09.560
was our base case until Blackrock filed, and then all of a sudden everything
123
00:08:09.639 --> 00:08:15.319
changes because we weren't shock that Blackrock
was interested in launching a bitcoin ETF.
124
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Right you asked me, at any
point, I would say, if any
125
00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:20.959
of the big issues are going to
launch a bitcoin etf, it's gonna be
126
00:08:20.959 --> 00:08:24.879
black Rock, right. It could
be potential for growth. It's just something
127
00:08:24.879 --> 00:08:26.800
they would do. They have a
gold DPF. They will take a shot
128
00:08:26.839 --> 00:08:31.040
at anything. What was surprising is
that they would take a shot at going
129
00:08:31.079 --> 00:08:35.000
first and trying to fight this regulatory
battle. So the fact that somebody like
130
00:08:35.080 --> 00:08:39.120
Blackrock, the largest asset manager in
the world, came in and they had
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this language with a surveillance shearing agreement. At the time they didn't name the
132
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exchange. We all assumed it was
coin base, but at the time they
133
00:08:45.360 --> 00:08:48.519
didn't say coin Base. They had
to surreneer agreement, which we get into
134
00:08:48.519 --> 00:08:52.480
the nuances of how much that actually
matters. But there was a lot of
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00:08:52.480 --> 00:08:56.360
things that all of a sudden the
calculus changed and we basically within a couple
136
00:08:56.360 --> 00:09:00.720
of days of that upped our odds
to fifty percent. From talking to other
137
00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:03.720
people, we saw a lot of
other people applying, so for a long
138
00:09:03.759 --> 00:09:09.320
time right after that black Rock News, we are around fifty fifty before we
139
00:09:09.320 --> 00:09:13.200
thought whether or not we thought these
would get approved, and then as you
140
00:09:13.240 --> 00:09:16.159
mentioned, we recently just upped our
odds on the spot pick we'en ETF to
141
00:09:16.360 --> 00:09:20.240
sixty five. And I want to
be clear, this is not like quantitative
142
00:09:20.399 --> 00:09:22.799
or like we're not measuring all these
different things. It's like we have a
143
00:09:22.799 --> 00:09:28.519
team of people and we're all arguing
and debating about what facts matter and trying
144
00:09:28.559 --> 00:09:31.840
to read the tea leaves is really
like a little crazy. But it's like
145
00:09:31.080 --> 00:09:33.879
we kind of figure out, like
if the odds were here, would you
146
00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:37.440
still bet on it? Like on
either side? So we're trying to figure
147
00:09:37.440 --> 00:09:39.399
out that and try to figure out
like where we actually think the odds are.
148
00:09:41.440 --> 00:09:43.440
So yeah, that's that's how it
works. And I'll just I'll just
149
00:09:43.480 --> 00:09:46.960
stop there. You can ask whatever
else you're so do you want here?
150
00:09:48.679 --> 00:09:50.879
No, that's great insight and I
love it. And that's you know when
151
00:09:50.879 --> 00:09:56.279
I follow you and Eric is,
well, you guys have provide insightful information
152
00:09:56.320 --> 00:10:01.720
about what's happening. And you know, do you think we've hit a tipping
153
00:10:01.759 --> 00:10:07.320
point with institutional adoption of bitcoin and
crypto? Because as soon as Blackrock filed,
154
00:10:07.519 --> 00:10:11.679
the whole herd of Wall Street starting
lining up. Everybody started filing for
155
00:10:11.720 --> 00:10:16.240
as body TF and also following black
Rocks League. You mentioned coin Bees being
156
00:10:16.360 --> 00:10:20.480
named as the surveillance partner, the
structure, the feedback from the SEC.
157
00:10:20.480 --> 00:10:24.440
Do you think we've hit at that
tipping point that now it's like everybody's going
158
00:10:24.480 --> 00:10:28.879
to be participating in this. So
so what I will say is like,
159
00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:33.720
there really aren't any new filers,
like all these guys. The only new
160
00:10:33.759 --> 00:10:37.840
filer here is Blackrock. Every single
other person that's filed here has already filed
161
00:10:37.879 --> 00:10:45.120
in the past. So it's this
isn't like brand new institutional adoption. This
162
00:10:45.200 --> 00:10:48.960
is institutions that have people at these
fronts. I often hear all these people
163
00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:52.039
about like institutions don't understand it,
but like people don't grasp it, like
164
00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:54.360
it's a big company like Bloomberg.
For the longest time I was we were
165
00:10:54.360 --> 00:10:58.000
recovering crypto. I believe in some
of the things that the crypto ecosystem and
166
00:10:58.000 --> 00:11:01.799
bitcoin itself was to do, but
like Bloomberg as a company was against it.
167
00:11:01.879 --> 00:11:05.720
Right, it's top down, But
there doesn't mean that like these companies.
168
00:11:05.759 --> 00:11:07.399
These people at these companies, there's
people within them that don't believe in
169
00:11:07.440 --> 00:11:13.200
it. So obviously Blackrock has people
like that Invesco wisdom trade bit wise is
170
00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:18.960
basically solely based on crypto asset management. So all these different firms out there
171
00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:22.519
that like, even if the whole
firm isn't behind it, there's likely people
172
00:11:22.559 --> 00:11:26.519
that have personal interests or think there's
a room for growth there. I forget
173
00:11:26.519 --> 00:11:30.519
exactly where I was going there,
But it's not that this is a herd
174
00:11:30.559 --> 00:11:33.080
of institutions. The one thing I
will say, as far as the institution
175
00:11:33.120 --> 00:11:35.960
goes, if the SEC does approve
this, right, it's not so much
176
00:11:37.000 --> 00:11:39.279
that, oh my god, billions
and billions of dollars are going to flow
177
00:11:39.279 --> 00:11:43.159
into this and it's gonna pump my
bags. It's more to me specifically this
178
00:11:43.240 --> 00:11:46.039
and we get to what futures ETFs
too. It's like this is more of
179
00:11:46.120 --> 00:11:50.720
singing signaling from the SEC that like
they're kind of changing their tune a little
180
00:11:50.720 --> 00:11:56.840
bit. You're getting a little bit
more regulatory clarity, not enough in my
181
00:11:56.840 --> 00:12:00.200
opinion, but you're getting a little
bit more more reasonable clarity. I guess
182
00:12:00.200 --> 00:12:03.399
the clarity right now is nothing is
allowed, but that seems to be something
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is changing on the back ends here, and I don't know how much of
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it is because Blackrock and Larry Finker
involved these lawsuits that have been half losses
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or full losses at the SEC.
Basically, the way I looked at it
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was like, until Blackrock got involved, the the SEC kind of viewed Bitcoin
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is like this tier or pedestal all
off on its own, and then all
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these coins are on the opposite side, and then Ethereum and some other ones
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were kind of in this middle ground
where like they wouldn't say it's a commodity,
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they're not also claiming it's like it's
security, so like they might be
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like, kind of my assumption is
now that Ethereum is kind of being pushed
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closer to Bitcoin, but not fully. So we're just kind of trying to
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read all these tea leaves. What
are people saying, what is the SEC
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doing? We have sources at these
companies and about like what back channeling might
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be happening from the SEC. So
we're just trying to put all that together
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to figure out what's happening. So
it's really just us live like seeing everything
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we can and knowing how these regulatory
bodies work, knowing how these issuers think,
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and knowing how the process works,
to try and figure out what could
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be happening here. So, James, are you hearing of anything related to
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Goldman, Sacks and some of the
investment banks that who may want to also
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throw in in application as well.
Yeah, so, I so there's a
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lot of people talking about these other
names that could throw in. Honestly,
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I don't think anyone else is really
going to throw in. It's only gonna
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be the asset managers for the most
part that I've already done this, these
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etf issuers, because even as it
is right now, we have like ten
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applications. Global X just fought refiled, so global X had filed in the
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past, they followed last week,
so they update, so it's nine active
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applications. And then you get if
you include the gray Scale lawsuit, which
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we also consider to be active,
that's ten different issuers looking to launch a
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spot pico an etf And while ets
are kind of like a winner take all,
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it's more like a winner take most. I'll take that quote from Matt
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Hogan, who's one of the head
of research a fit Wise asset Management.
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It's like, there's not room for
ten spotic or anytfs, right like it
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like most likely that may theoretically maybe
there could be if there's really a lot
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of interest, but time will tell, right, So I don't think anyone
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else is going to come into the
space, like there's too many people have
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too much of a lead. There's
a lot of things you need to set
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up on the back end with third
party custodians, administrators working with the market
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makers and the traders and the authorized
sparticisms that will make these things work.
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Like it's not like Goldben can just
spin this up in a day and get
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it launched out. So so yeah, I would say any rumors about other
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people entering that haven't already filed,
I'm not sure I buy that, But
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it's not it wouldn't be impossible.
I just think it's it's gonna be very
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hard, especially if either the SEC
is going to approve these ones that have
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already filed in order with the way
they filed, or they're going to approve
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them all at once. And either
way, either if they approve them all
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in order, you're way late to
the game. Unless you're going to offer
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some ridiculously low price or some really
unique thing that like people are gonna want,
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you're not gonna be able to stand
out. And if it's all at
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once, you like if you're a
goldman, like, oh, why would
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you ever do that? Right?
Sure, so you mentioned, you know,
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possibly a scenario is that all of
these ETFs get approved at once.
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It seems like the SEC is under
pressure because of the backdrop of regulatory uh
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you know, issues that are happening, regulations and bills that are in process,
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the ripple situation, Gray Scale seeming
like they're going to win this.
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You know, what does your gut
tell you is the likely scenario to play
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out that all of them get approved? And are you thinking two four of
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this year or this is something that
spills into next year. Good question,
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So I'll split it up into two
answers. The first answer is we think
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multiple we approved at once. I've
written research where I basically said, like,
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we expect it to be all of
them at once, but that's not
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that's like just like our base case. I do think if if they are
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approved, they will all be There
will be multiple approved, not necessarily all
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of them, but theoretically the easiest
way to do this is just the light
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here, all of all ten.
If you have at it right, that's
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the path of least resistance, particularly
if the SEC loses their lawsuit against Gray
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scale, which we're waiting on a
decision. So one, I think multiple
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launch at once. Maybe all will
launch at once, but time will tell
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standards and precedent says that that's not
going to be the case. They'll just
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launch like one after the other in
the order that they were filed. Potentially,
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I don't think that will happen either. The SEC is very cognizant.
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They got critiqued hard for launching BIDDO, which is the Futures Bitcoin Future z
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ETF first, and it basically they
were they played a kingmaker role. They
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let BIDDO launch first, and they
want in the in the entire they have
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like ninety ninety four percent of the
aspects of ninety eight percent of the trading
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volume. I mean, it's it's
become it's the dominant choice, right,
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So I think the SEC is cognizant
of that, doesn't want to go down
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that route again. As far as
timeline goes, obviously, the SEC,
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like everyone talked with all these timelines. I have all these deadlines that are
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important to me. I like to
watch them. But at the end of
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the day, the SEC can kind
of do whatever the hell they want,
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which I feel like is kind of
getting overlooked. Like I've been saying this
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from the get go, like everyone's
like, oh, they can't do this,
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they can't do that. I Mean, what it comes down to is
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like what Gary Gensler and the people
they reports do so namely Democrats in Congress
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or like just the White House in
a way, like they'll make their decisions
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and the SEC staff and lawyers will
back into those decisions with legal reasoning.
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That's what they've done. They've done
that in the past. They did it
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when they approved one of the Bitcoin
Future z ETF approvals, so they have
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no problem doing that. Right.
So that's the one thing on timeline,
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like they could have proved them all
next week, Like that's not like that
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wouldn't be like illegal or anything.
Right. So, but my main timelines
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are I initially, if you would
ask me a month ago or two months
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ago when when the Gray Scale,
sorry, when the black Rock application happened,
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I thought they would approve these things
before the Gray Scale decision comes down,
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and that way they could basically say, who cares what the courts say,
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we did, we actually were right
and we wanted this surveillance share agreement
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or whatever. I'm not sure this
is going to happen anymore. I'm more
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in the camp now where I think
the SEC is going to wait for a
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gray scale decision because you have black
rock on one end, you have a
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gray scale potential loss on the other
end, and the SEC is really kind
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of backed into a corner, particularly
in these spot pic winn ETFs, So
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then I think they might approve.
So the two dates that I'm really watching
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are one if that's if my theory
is correct, it'll be some time period
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after the gray scale decision comes down, which could come down any day now.
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Our expectations will be before September thirtieth. My guess was August fifteenth,
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like a month and a half ago, so that's still on the table.
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Will be great if that was a
complete other like just educated gaps, so
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like don't take any credence to that. But the real dates that we're looking
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at, it would be like something
like forty five to plus days after that
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decision comes down that the SEC would
do something. So technically, the DC
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Court of Appeals, it's a panel
three judges. They will make a decision
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in the gray scale case, and
then the SEC, theoretically, if they
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lose, will have forty five days
to request what's called like an un bond
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hearing, which basically means like rather
than just the three judges that are on
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the panel, will be all the
judges that are on that DC circuit.
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So it'd be like, however,
many judges would descrust would look at the
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marriage of the case and decide like, if it was like dealt with correctly,
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we're not, so it's unlikely SEC
would do that, but I guess
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time will tell, So then we
could be waiting even longer if they do
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go down that route. But if
they don't, then you have like forty
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five ish days at least maybe more
before the SEC will have to do something.
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So it'll or will be completely dependent
on exactly what the judge's ruling says.
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So it's like, yeah, the
gray scale could win, but it's
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going to really come down what the
wording in that lawsuit is. I'm sorry
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that was the That was the one
day, So like the one date is
307
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like we get we get the ruling, and then there's some timeline of the
308
00:20:10.880 --> 00:20:14.039
SEC has to respond the other date. The next one is the R twenty
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one shares. I said they were
the only one that was active when black
310
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Rock filed their first final deadline absolutely
last case last dit Shepherd, where the
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SECS approve or deny is January tenth. So if the SEC if we get
312
00:20:25.960 --> 00:20:30.839
the January tenth and the SEC denies
ARC and twenty one shares their application,
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I can't imagine them approving the other
ones that are due in March, right,
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So if that gets denied, then
it's all, God, we're not
315
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getting a spot P twenty tf that
year. I'm still in the mindset and
316
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I know this is not tangible or
anything that optics uh, you know,
317
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and the optics don't look good for
Gary Ginzer right now. He and especially
318
00:20:53.680 --> 00:20:59.480
if black Rock is here paypals launching
a stable coin, the narrative has shifted
319
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on him. So I feel like
there's pressure on him, But I could
320
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be absolutely wrong. That's just you
know, yeah, we agree with you
321
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completely, like we've been saying from
the get go. The one reason the
322
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reason that Eric and Eric Eric and
I picked up so many followers is because
323
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we were the ones saying the spot
bitcoin ETF was going to get approved,
324
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and we weren't, like crypto analysts, like it's going to get approved,
325
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right, So it's so BTC futures. So that's that was in twenty twenty
326
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one. And one of the reasons
we were so bullish, and that was
327
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because Gary Gensler gave a speech on
August third of twenty twenty one saying like,
328
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we look forward to applications, which
doesn't sound like much, but it's
329
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similar to what they did with the
futures ets recently. And really what it
330
00:21:36.640 --> 00:21:40.359
comes down to is what Gary wants
to do. So it's become, as
331
00:21:40.359 --> 00:21:42.279
you said, the words we've used, it is politically untenable. It's becoming
332
00:21:42.279 --> 00:21:45.400
to a point where like Gary needs
to spin this as a win. And
333
00:21:45.599 --> 00:21:48.119
if he's taken off this, he's
a political animal. He wants to be
334
00:21:48.119 --> 00:21:52.960
Treasury Secretary, no matter. He's
a very political minded person. Right,
335
00:21:52.000 --> 00:21:56.359
So if he can spin this and
say, look, we got coin based
336
00:21:56.359 --> 00:22:00.319
to come in with a surveillance Sharman
Graham and bring them under our jurisdiction in
337
00:22:00.359 --> 00:22:03.319
some way to do X, Y
and Z, we've cleaned up crypto a
338
00:22:03.359 --> 00:22:06.839
bit more. All of a sudden, him approving these doesn't look like a
339
00:22:06.880 --> 00:22:08.720
loss or him losing a gray scale. It looks like he won. And
340
00:22:08.799 --> 00:22:12.279
like, in my mind, that's
the route that I would go down if
341
00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:15.200
I were him, unless there's some
other thing going on. So I completely
342
00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:18.839
agree with you. It's it's getting
to a point where he kind of has
343
00:22:18.920 --> 00:22:22.400
to shift gears a little bit.
I think, like I hinted at earlier,
344
00:22:22.640 --> 00:22:25.759
he's going to shift gears on bitcoin
and ethereum because he has said from
345
00:22:25.759 --> 00:22:27.000
the get go, bitcoin is the
one thing he will say is not a
346
00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:32.160
security, Right, He's going to
shift and let kind of bitcoin and ethereum
347
00:22:32.359 --> 00:22:36.079
be their own thing and then really
go after everything else. And we'll see
348
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how that goes. Obviously, it
didn't go great with Ripple, and if
349
00:22:37.400 --> 00:22:41.680
you asked me, I would have
said Ripple, if anything is a security,
350
00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:44.000
Rippled about as close as the gets
like that. A lot of the
351
00:22:44.000 --> 00:22:48.559
other cryptos are have less security like
characteristics than Ripple does. So and so
352
00:22:49.200 --> 00:22:53.039
with regards to the coin based item
that you mentioned, you know, with
353
00:22:53.079 --> 00:22:56.880
the fact that the SEC is suing
them, do you think that throws a
354
00:22:56.880 --> 00:23:00.920
monkey wrench in anything or is it
like you said, bitcoines, nearly they've
355
00:23:00.920 --> 00:23:03.200
said it is not a security.
See, it doesn't matter about the all
356
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:07.880
coins near that lawsuit is happening because
of the all coins, but the bitcoin
357
00:23:07.000 --> 00:23:11.519
situation and the custody standpoint. From
a custody standpoint, that doesn't matter or
358
00:23:11.519 --> 00:23:15.759
effect the ETF process. Yeah,
So all the denials back to the Winklevoss
359
00:23:15.839 --> 00:23:21.640
trying to get this through with their
Gemini Trust, have said that they want
360
00:23:21.640 --> 00:23:26.599
a surveillance sharing agreement with a regulated
market of significant size. And those are
361
00:23:26.680 --> 00:23:30.240
very specific words because that's what the
SEC continues to use. There's all a
362
00:23:30.240 --> 00:23:32.960
bunch of other reasons why they denied
them over the time, but like for
363
00:23:33.000 --> 00:23:34.720
that has been there the whole time, and that's really the one thing we're
364
00:23:34.720 --> 00:23:40.720
focused on here. They want either
a regulated market underneath somebody's regular like the
365
00:23:40.799 --> 00:23:44.880
SEC or CFTC, which is why
they approve the futures because the CME market
366
00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:49.119
is under the CFTC. It's a
regulate, it's a regulator. So they've
367
00:23:49.200 --> 00:23:53.240
always said they wanted this, right. The question is like, there's no
368
00:23:53.319 --> 00:23:57.000
definition of what a regulated market is
like you kind of know it when you
369
00:23:57.039 --> 00:24:02.200
see it really, and there's no
definition really what a market of significant sizes
370
00:24:02.279 --> 00:24:06.920
And the SEC gets shown their willingness
to completely finagle on those matters. Right,
371
00:24:07.240 --> 00:24:10.759
So I mentioned the CME ones,
they basically approved the CMME Futures prop
372
00:24:10.920 --> 00:24:17.119
Acts sorry to CEME Futures ETFs up
for bitcoin, saying that they were markets
373
00:24:17.240 --> 00:24:22.079
regulated markets of signa in size because
CEMME regulated by the CFTC, and it's
374
00:24:22.079 --> 00:24:25.359
a market of significant size because it's
the only market in the US, so
375
00:24:25.440 --> 00:24:29.119
like it's a it's a market of
significant size with relation to itself. So
376
00:24:29.119 --> 00:24:33.519
that goes back to showing like the
SEC will back into whatever is decided from
377
00:24:33.519 --> 00:24:37.440
above. They decided what is the
most tenable situation. So the next question
378
00:24:37.559 --> 00:24:42.640
is is does that mean that coin
base is a market of a regulated market
379
00:24:42.720 --> 00:24:48.519
of significant size. It depends how
you look at it, right, So
380
00:24:48.519 --> 00:24:51.960
so if you look at it on
US dollar trading volume, coin base is
381
00:24:52.079 --> 00:24:55.440
the place, right, not stable
coins. If you look at US dollar,
382
00:24:55.559 --> 00:24:56.720
if you want to narrow it down
the US dollar, you want to
383
00:24:56.759 --> 00:25:02.160
narrow it down to US based exchanges, coin bas is the market of significant
384
00:25:02.160 --> 00:25:03.039
size. So all of a sudden, you're good. If you want to
385
00:25:03.039 --> 00:25:06.799
look at everything else, Obviously you
have to get Binance. The SEC is
386
00:25:06.839 --> 00:25:10.599
going after Binance and in similar losses, but of way more aggressive mentality.
387
00:25:10.599 --> 00:25:14.519
They are accusing them of way more
egregious behavior than they're going after coin based
388
00:25:14.519 --> 00:25:18.640
war. They're going after coin Base
for operating an unregistered securities exchange or unregistered
389
00:25:18.640 --> 00:25:22.680
broker dealer. Essentially, they are
not doing that for finance and going after
390
00:25:22.680 --> 00:25:26.720
them for way more. And also, as you hinted that and I've said
391
00:25:26.960 --> 00:25:30.400
when we were at fifty fifty,
I said, they are not going after
392
00:25:30.480 --> 00:25:33.480
anything related to bitcoin. Bitcoin is
not even mentioned in the lawsuits. It's
393
00:25:33.519 --> 00:25:37.799
all these other tokens, those things
that are more security like tokens and not
394
00:25:37.880 --> 00:25:41.359
bitcoins. So that was one thing. And then the Brian Armstrong article came
395
00:25:41.359 --> 00:25:42.759
out, which is partly one of
the things that kind of made us go
396
00:25:42.799 --> 00:25:47.640
to sixty five percent. They've since
disputed it, but Brian Armstrong basically said
397
00:25:47.640 --> 00:25:51.200
to the FD that the the SEC
sets of them delist every single thing on
398
00:25:51.240 --> 00:25:53.799
your platform aside from bitcoin. And
in my mind that just like says the
399
00:25:53.839 --> 00:25:57.000
SEC is more okay with bitcoin.
Right, So, if coin Base has
400
00:25:57.000 --> 00:26:03.359
an as the SSA or so on
sharing Agreement partner in all these ETF applications,
401
00:26:04.279 --> 00:26:10.799
I think it's somewhat it's more safe
to assume that those the spot bitcoin
402
00:26:10.880 --> 00:26:14.559
trading on coin Base is more acceptable
to the SEC than any of the other
403
00:26:14.599 --> 00:26:21.720
stuff. Yeah, that totally makes
sense. So James walk us through as
404
00:26:21.720 --> 00:26:26.160
though we're news here, because once
again, you know about ets soup to
405
00:26:26.240 --> 00:26:29.400
nuts, and you know about it
from your trad five standpoint. Let's say
406
00:26:29.440 --> 00:26:32.400
we get a bunch of ETFs approved, right, You've got black Rock,
407
00:26:32.920 --> 00:26:37.359
arc invests and so forth. What
are the next us? What happens next?
408
00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:41.039
Internally? Do they start setting up
the pipelines and they have to market
409
00:26:41.119 --> 00:26:44.680
it? And who do you think
has the advantage? You know, I'm
410
00:26:44.720 --> 00:26:47.799
assuming black Rock, but you may, you know, say different. So
411
00:26:48.200 --> 00:26:51.720
I'm sure there's some eyes that need
to be dotted and t's that need to
412
00:26:51.759 --> 00:26:55.599
be crossed, But anyone who's filed
like probably has ninety five percent of that
413
00:26:55.640 --> 00:26:59.240
stuff done right. It's just a
matter of like finishing, tightening those nuts
414
00:26:59.279 --> 00:27:02.079
and bolts and figure things out right. So for the most part, they
415
00:27:02.119 --> 00:27:04.680
have their market makers. They're already
aware. Market makers are the typical trading
416
00:27:04.680 --> 00:27:10.240
firms that help make sure these things
trade efficiently. They have authorized participants to
417
00:27:10.279 --> 00:27:14.519
people that can create and redeem the
shares. So an ETF, the reason
418
00:27:14.559 --> 00:27:18.839
it works so well is there's constant
availability for creation and redemption, which you
419
00:27:18.880 --> 00:27:21.240
can't do in those trusts from gray
scale, and that's part of the reason
420
00:27:21.279 --> 00:27:22.680
why they're broken and why they want
to convert to an ETF. You can
421
00:27:22.720 --> 00:27:29.480
constantly create shares or you can constantly
destroy shares. So that's that's the big
422
00:27:29.519 --> 00:27:30.759
problem. But for the most part, it's already a done deal, right,
423
00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:33.599
like they're they're ready to go,
like they are, all their pipes
424
00:27:33.599 --> 00:27:37.119
are connected. Like if they're not, then that's a huge problem for them
425
00:27:37.160 --> 00:27:41.000
and they're going to lose out because
once they get approved, if somebody else
426
00:27:41.039 --> 00:27:44.319
is ready, they're screwed, right, Like if somebody goes a couple of
427
00:27:44.359 --> 00:27:47.640
days before and like six ets launch
on the same day and then well some
428
00:27:47.680 --> 00:27:51.880
of these other guys aren't actually ready
to launch, it's that's a that there's
429
00:27:51.880 --> 00:27:57.839
somebody's losing their job probably to be
quite honest. So that's that front so
430
00:27:59.319 --> 00:28:03.599
marketing, assuming these all do launch
at one time, which Kathy would even
431
00:28:03.640 --> 00:28:07.440
hinted at on our she we interviewed
our ETFIQ, which is our ETF show
432
00:28:07.480 --> 00:28:11.079
for Bloomer TV, and Kathy would
again she keeps coming up in this conversation,
433
00:28:11.079 --> 00:28:14.039
but she just said like it's our
marketing is going to be important,
434
00:28:14.119 --> 00:28:18.200
So like people who have relationships,
there's there's gonna be black Rock is the
435
00:28:18.440 --> 00:28:22.680
easy winner here most so many registered
investment advisors are ra as in the US,
436
00:28:22.720 --> 00:28:26.960
independent advisors trust black Rock. They
like using black Rock. If they're
437
00:28:26.000 --> 00:28:30.319
not crypto native or crypto hardcore,
they'll probably just go with the black Rock
438
00:28:30.319 --> 00:28:33.359
option, assuming that gets approved first
or right around the same time with the
439
00:28:33.359 --> 00:28:36.160
others. But there's plenty of other
people out there, right some of these
440
00:28:36.359 --> 00:28:40.480
some of these offerings are probably gonna
have like really small redemption availability. So
441
00:28:40.519 --> 00:28:44.839
like for the most part, to
do that creation redemption process I talked about,
442
00:28:44.880 --> 00:28:48.640
you need hundreds of thousands of shares
fifty thousand shares, so it's hundreds
443
00:28:48.640 --> 00:28:52.559
of thousands of dollars to create or
redeem those shares. But there are ETFs
444
00:28:52.599 --> 00:28:56.079
out there for gold, for example, where you can like only have like
445
00:28:56.119 --> 00:28:59.160
a couple thousand dollars and it'll deliver
gold to your doorstep. So I think
446
00:28:59.160 --> 00:29:00.680
there will be issuers that will like, oh, you only need a few
447
00:29:00.680 --> 00:29:03.799
thousand dollars and we'll send bitcoin to
like whatever while it address you want,
448
00:29:04.119 --> 00:29:07.200
or some of them will lend out
the bitcoin and aren yield, so you'll
449
00:29:07.200 --> 00:29:11.119
have better returns and you'll get dividends
from it, which obviously some people aren't
450
00:29:11.119 --> 00:29:15.039
gonna want. They're gonna want their
stuff they expose sitting in cold story.
451
00:29:15.079 --> 00:29:18.039
So there's gonna be nuances and how
these people market their ideas, how they
452
00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:23.079
try to sell them. But likely
right now black Rock would be the winner.
453
00:29:23.079 --> 00:29:26.559
But then again, you also have
people like Valkyrie and bit Wise that
454
00:29:26.680 --> 00:29:32.400
are like really focused solely on the
crypto ecosystem. They have people from the
455
00:29:32.480 --> 00:29:37.039
DeFi space that really know DeFi and
crypto in general. So maybe some of
456
00:29:37.039 --> 00:29:38.799
the people from the crypto world who
are looking to put this thing in an
457
00:29:38.839 --> 00:29:42.480
IRA or four oh and K or
what have you, they'll go with those
458
00:29:42.480 --> 00:29:47.000
type of providers. So this is
one area where they're like there really is
459
00:29:47.119 --> 00:29:49.960
specialized knowledge. So that's one benefit
that Ark and twenty one Cheers have because
460
00:29:49.960 --> 00:29:52.960
twenty one shars has a bunch of
these ETFs launched in Europe area, so
461
00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:57.079
they have a lot of the back
end infrastructure. I would never doubt black
462
00:29:57.160 --> 00:30:00.240
Rock to figure it out. Right. They are large assassinage in the world
463
00:30:00.240 --> 00:30:03.119
for a reason. They're very good
at what they do. But there might
464
00:30:03.160 --> 00:30:07.480
be some nuances that, like say
at twenty one years has run into and
465
00:30:07.519 --> 00:30:10.400
they are just know how to do
it a little better. But who knows.
466
00:30:10.759 --> 00:30:12.680
But for really, Blackrock is sitting
in the pole position as far as
467
00:30:12.720 --> 00:30:17.079
like gathering the most assets assuming they
all launch at the same time, just
468
00:30:17.119 --> 00:30:21.880
because of their brand name. Yeah
for sure. So James, you know,
469
00:30:22.119 --> 00:30:27.440
we got this SPOTTYTF thing happening and
everybody's hoping it dovetails with the bitcoin
470
00:30:27.559 --> 00:30:32.799
having coming up next year, going
to the four year cycle right new all
471
00:30:32.839 --> 00:30:36.119
time wise, what are your thoughts, man, do you think we're instant
472
00:30:36.160 --> 00:30:40.839
for some epic bull run like we've
never seen before? So I'm going to
473
00:30:40.880 --> 00:30:45.720
give some counter evidence to what we're
talking about here. Unfortunately, if you
474
00:30:45.759 --> 00:30:51.279
look at when the CIME bitcoin futures
were approved, they were approved in late
475
00:30:51.279 --> 00:30:55.720
twenty seventeen early twenty eighteen, so
you can figure out what happened with bitcoin
476
00:30:55.759 --> 00:30:57.079
places there if you know, it
was not a good sign. And then
477
00:30:57.119 --> 00:31:02.720
when Bitcoin Futures ETFs were approved,
it was in October of twenty twenty one
478
00:31:02.960 --> 00:31:07.000
and very late October twenty twenty one, which coincided right around the peak of
479
00:31:07.079 --> 00:31:11.480
the peak of bitcoin around sixty nine
thousand, and it's gone down from there.
480
00:31:11.480 --> 00:31:15.359
So these launches do tend to coincide
right with like peaks, But we're
481
00:31:15.359 --> 00:31:18.519
in a very different as you mentioned, we're not near those types of peaks.
482
00:31:18.519 --> 00:31:23.039
Those were after the havings things like
that, and while we're in I
483
00:31:23.039 --> 00:31:27.880
would argueabullmarkt on crypto a bitcoin specifically, we're not at the same like mania
484
00:31:27.960 --> 00:31:33.480
level that we were both at both
times when CEM futures were coming online and
485
00:31:33.640 --> 00:31:38.079
when Bitcoin Bitcoin futures ETFs were coming
online. So that's the counter argument,
486
00:31:38.160 --> 00:31:45.079
right. These things also open the
ability for easier shorting. They're the futures.
487
00:31:45.079 --> 00:31:48.279
ETFs are very good trading vehicles,
not necessarily something you might want to
488
00:31:48.319 --> 00:31:51.559
hold for a very long term due
to rolling of futures, which I don't
489
00:31:51.559 --> 00:31:52.680
think we really need to get into, but where I'm happy to if you
490
00:31:52.720 --> 00:31:56.839
want. The other side of this
is you got to remember that gray scale
491
00:31:57.039 --> 00:32:04.119
has a lot of bitpoint three point
three percent I think of the global supply.
492
00:32:05.200 --> 00:32:08.000
So assuming this thing gets approved right
now, the main problem with GBTC
493
00:32:08.279 --> 00:32:12.400
is that you can't destroy those shares. And when I say destroy shares,
494
00:32:12.640 --> 00:32:15.920
you basically hand shares of the fun
back if you get the underlying assets.
495
00:32:15.920 --> 00:32:19.440
So in traditional ETF it's either equities
or bonds. You give the basket of
496
00:32:19.480 --> 00:32:21.839
equities, you get it back.
You give a basket, you give a
497
00:32:21.839 --> 00:32:24.480
basket of ETF shares, you get
the basket of equities back. Or gold
498
00:32:24.519 --> 00:32:28.240
you give the shares of the gold
DTF you get a physical gold back.
499
00:32:28.359 --> 00:32:32.319
Right in this case, GBTC would
convert at some point and all those all
500
00:32:32.359 --> 00:32:37.480
that bitcoin that's locked up could theoretically
be unlocked and sold. But there's no
501
00:32:37.519 --> 00:32:39.559
way to know exactly what's going to
happen. But there's a lot of It's
502
00:32:39.599 --> 00:32:43.599
not as simple as these things are
going to launch. It's a bowl run
503
00:32:44.359 --> 00:32:47.839
automatically. I think it will be
determined by like what else is happening in
504
00:32:47.880 --> 00:32:52.039
the macro environment. But I think
the one thing it does say, which
505
00:32:52.039 --> 00:32:55.680
I've hinted at before, is it's
like maybe not regulatory clarity, but more
506
00:32:55.759 --> 00:33:00.000
like regulatory acceptance in a way,
right, Like the SEC is kind of
507
00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:04.119
accepting that this is a thing.
From my point of view, I've been
508
00:33:04.200 --> 00:33:08.000
arguing this since twenty twenty, twenty
nineteen, really like people know what bitcoin
509
00:33:08.079 --> 00:33:10.960
is at this point, Like,
it's not like twenty seventeen when people are
510
00:33:10.960 --> 00:33:14.759
trying to get these things out the
door and the SEC was just not allowing
511
00:33:14.799 --> 00:33:16.319
it. I kind of understood it
back then because a lot of people didn't
512
00:33:16.319 --> 00:33:20.680
know what they're doing. Even if
Bitcoin goes to zero, like people putting
513
00:33:20.680 --> 00:33:22.960
money in a bitcoin ETF, like
they know what they're buying, you know
514
00:33:23.000 --> 00:33:28.079
what I mean. It's not like
any sort of scary thing. There could
515
00:33:28.079 --> 00:33:30.359
be manipulation happening, but for the
most part, people know what they're getting
516
00:33:30.359 --> 00:33:36.039
themselves into at this point. So
I think it's I think it's definitely a
517
00:33:36.039 --> 00:33:37.839
positive indicator. If these things are
proved. That would be crazy to argue
518
00:33:37.880 --> 00:33:42.039
the opposite, But I just want
to point out those other avenues that like,
519
00:33:42.119 --> 00:33:45.319
it's not as like, oh my
god, this is automatically institutions are
520
00:33:45.319 --> 00:33:50.240
going to come running like a charging
goal into this space, but it does.
521
00:33:50.359 --> 00:33:53.079
It is a good thing, and
advisors who want to put their client
522
00:33:53.079 --> 00:33:58.799
assets in these in crypto will probably
use those those ETFs now. They love
523
00:33:58.880 --> 00:34:02.680
the ts this. This would put
it on the traditional financial rails in a
524
00:34:02.759 --> 00:34:07.079
similar way that gray scale trusts have. Is upt in a way more efficient
525
00:34:07.159 --> 00:34:12.440
rapper than what that what's currently available. Yeah, that's a great point,
526
00:34:12.880 --> 00:34:15.199
and it's going to take time to
ramp up and all these folks to get
527
00:34:15.320 --> 00:34:19.679
up to speed at the rias and
so forth. But maybe it's more of
528
00:34:19.719 --> 00:34:22.159
the narrative, right, like you're
alluding to. It's just the fact clarity
529
00:34:23.280 --> 00:34:27.440
it was Potty TIFFs approved. Who
cares. Everybody's bullish now, right if
530
00:34:27.440 --> 00:34:31.039
there's actual capital coming in, But
everybody's bullish because of the signal, right
531
00:34:31.079 --> 00:34:37.239
that this is a good to go. So let's say Bigcoiny tip is approved,
532
00:34:37.280 --> 00:34:40.519
Becoin Spotty TIFFs approved, we're up
and running black rock. All these
533
00:34:40.559 --> 00:34:45.639
guys, Cathy, well, they're
all marketing doing their thing now. A
534
00:34:45.679 --> 00:34:50.000
bunch of players want to get ETFs
and all they're all coin basket ETFs.
535
00:34:50.039 --> 00:34:54.679
And look XRP. While that case
was split, you know of judge ruled
536
00:34:54.760 --> 00:34:59.760
ripple. You know has a victory
here, SEC has a victory here,
537
00:34:59.800 --> 00:35:04.320
But the main one was XRP intrinsically
not being security. So we could potentially
538
00:35:04.360 --> 00:35:07.960
see and XRP ETF being filed for. Do you expect that to be the
539
00:35:08.000 --> 00:35:13.800
next step after the Bitcoiny spotty tfs
have been approved. Yeah, so we're
540
00:35:13.920 --> 00:35:17.840
up to like eleven ethereum ETFs that
have been ethereum futures ETFs that have been
541
00:35:17.840 --> 00:35:22.239
applied for, and like that all
happened within the last couple of weeks.
542
00:35:22.639 --> 00:35:29.000
And if you had asked me,
like literally I'm on podcast like a couple
543
00:35:29.000 --> 00:35:32.679
of weeks ago saying eight futures ets
aren't coming anytime soon basically SEC. So
544
00:35:32.840 --> 00:35:37.360
I'm I'm eating it in the face
right now. But really, what that
545
00:35:37.800 --> 00:35:42.800
just signals, like this is a
complete one eight from the SEC. Essentially
546
00:35:42.880 --> 00:35:45.880
we saw the two x bitcoin futures
ETFs launch and I was saying, if
547
00:35:45.880 --> 00:35:49.280
the two x bitcoin futures ets launch
and they don't allow spot piccoin a ETFs,
548
00:35:49.320 --> 00:35:52.639
this is just absolutely ridiculous, Like
you are not protecting investors, right,
549
00:35:52.679 --> 00:35:54.679
Like that was that was one theory. The same issuer that managed to
550
00:35:54.719 --> 00:35:59.239
get that through filed for an ethereum
futures ETFs. And I'll get to the
551
00:35:59.280 --> 00:36:01.199
Ripple stuff in it, but I'll
just talk about the East stuff first and
552
00:36:01.159 --> 00:36:06.920
then we'll we'll get to remind me
and we'll go back to Ripple. This
553
00:36:07.119 --> 00:36:10.480
company Volatility shares, they launched the
two x bitcoin futures, So I use
554
00:36:10.559 --> 00:36:14.679
that as a reason, like they
have to pru spot. They can't,
555
00:36:14.719 --> 00:36:16.559
they can't allow this to launch,
and they have to prue spot. They
556
00:36:16.679 --> 00:36:21.239
also filed for an Ethereum future z
ETF on July twenty eighth, Friday,
557
00:36:21.639 --> 00:36:24.960
and then the following Tuesday everyone started
filing. So we haven't had a bunch
558
00:36:24.960 --> 00:36:30.039
of filings last week all the way
through Friday night of last week, of
559
00:36:30.199 --> 00:36:34.519
all these issuers filing for ethereum futures
ETFs, and we were hearing early in
560
00:36:34.519 --> 00:36:40.440
the week, is that the SEC
basically went to to those issuers instead,
561
00:36:40.480 --> 00:36:45.760
we're willing to take a look at
ethereum applications. Again, we don't know
562
00:36:45.800 --> 00:36:49.039
exactly what the work against. Wall
Street Journal confirmed this. Multiple crypto people
563
00:36:49.039 --> 00:36:52.199
converted Blake. Block Works was the
first one to say this. We were
564
00:36:52.239 --> 00:36:55.039
also hearing the same thing from people
whether we know in the industry that that's
565
00:36:55.039 --> 00:36:58.920
what had happened, and then block
Works and everyone followed up and we were
566
00:36:58.960 --> 00:37:00.119
like and I was like, yeah, we're here in the same stuff.
567
00:37:00.360 --> 00:37:02.880
So I backed off of it.
But I want to go back to why
568
00:37:04.000 --> 00:37:07.119
I was like so confident or not
super confident, but why I was so
569
00:37:07.800 --> 00:37:10.599
perished on the ability to get each
futures ets approved even though I thought they
570
00:37:10.639 --> 00:37:15.360
should have been approved. But we
had five filings in mid May and they
571
00:37:15.360 --> 00:37:19.760
were all forced to be withdrawn within
a couple of days. So these those
572
00:37:19.800 --> 00:37:23.360
forty ACTDTF I don't like. Specifically, there's two ways to file for an
573
00:37:23.360 --> 00:37:28.679
ETF. Since twenty nineteen, there
was this new rule. Essentially you file
574
00:37:28.679 --> 00:37:30.760
and then within seventy five days you
could launch unless the SEC tells you to
575
00:37:30.760 --> 00:37:35.119
withdraw. That's the new rule.
That's only for nineteen forty a dtfs.
576
00:37:35.679 --> 00:37:38.679
Spot ETFs cannot follow that. They
have to follow the old process. They
577
00:37:38.719 --> 00:37:42.559
are nineteen thirty three Act funds,
which you only get into the details,
578
00:37:42.559 --> 00:37:45.400
but that's where you see the two
hundred forty day clock and all these different
579
00:37:45.400 --> 00:37:50.239
decision deadlines. These other process the
Bitcoin, the first Bitcoin Futures ETFs,
580
00:37:50.280 --> 00:37:53.199
the Ethereum Future DTF at this point
are all forty Act products, which means
581
00:37:53.599 --> 00:37:57.000
they have that seventy five day clocks. So usually the way it works as
582
00:37:57.000 --> 00:38:00.159
the SEC says, hey, which
all not happening, And that happened in
583
00:38:00.199 --> 00:38:04.400
May of this year. They were
all withdrawn. So it showed us the
584
00:38:04.440 --> 00:38:07.559
SEC was just not willing to mess
with the theory of futures, which I
585
00:38:07.639 --> 00:38:09.119
disagreed with. Like, from my
point of view, once bitcoin future z
586
00:38:09.119 --> 00:38:13.280
etf launch, I didn't understand the
difference, like they should allow it here
587
00:38:13.280 --> 00:38:15.320
in future z ETFs to launch two, but the SEC was a no go.
588
00:38:15.519 --> 00:38:17.880
So I was wrong on that.
But I think what happened here is
589
00:38:19.320 --> 00:38:23.000
Volatility Shares and these other issuers.
They were like, you can't approve a
590
00:38:23.039 --> 00:38:27.079
future ztf, and especially if Gray
Scale is gonna win this lawsuit. So
591
00:38:27.079 --> 00:38:30.360
part of gray Scales's lawsuit is as
a regulator, and admit I've been saying
592
00:38:30.360 --> 00:38:34.599
this when they get go, you
can't approve future z ETFs which are derivative
593
00:38:34.679 --> 00:38:38.000
of spot market trading. Literally the
pricing of these future z ecfs and these
594
00:38:38.039 --> 00:38:44.039
futures themselves are based off the spot
markets that the SEC is saying are manipulated.
595
00:38:44.079 --> 00:38:45.639
So I don't know how you can
improve future z ETFs and not approved
596
00:38:45.679 --> 00:38:50.360
Spot. So theoretically, one avenue
that many people thought might happen is the
597
00:38:50.400 --> 00:38:53.639
SEC was gonna forced the list every
future's Bitcoin future z etf out there,
598
00:38:53.920 --> 00:38:59.199
and that way they wouldn't violate the
court's orders if they lose to gray scale.
599
00:39:00.119 --> 00:39:04.039
So I would make the same argument
for ethery and future CTF like you
600
00:39:04.079 --> 00:39:07.960
can't. It would be arbitrary and
capricious to argue, which are very specific
601
00:39:07.039 --> 00:39:12.159
legal terms. It would be capricious
to argue that you can allow bitcoint future
602
00:39:12.199 --> 00:39:15.719
c ets but not a theory of
future cts, which are all bull traded
603
00:39:15.760 --> 00:39:20.199
on the CME. Right, So
I think at some point the SEC has
604
00:39:20.199 --> 00:39:22.639
done the calculists and then like,
if somebody goes the quarter over this,
605
00:39:22.840 --> 00:39:25.440
we'll lose in the same way we
might lose to grain scale. So they
606
00:39:25.440 --> 00:39:28.440
were just like, all right,
we might just have to let these go
607
00:39:28.519 --> 00:39:32.920
through. So that's the word seventy
five percent chance odds that Etherean futures ETF
608
00:39:34.000 --> 00:39:37.119
gets approved in October, So the
first date for that volatility shares one is
609
00:39:37.159 --> 00:39:42.000
October eleventh, and the next star
on October sixteen, seventeen to eighteen,
610
00:39:42.119 --> 00:39:45.639
right around there, So we could
see a slew off Etherean future ets launch
611
00:39:45.679 --> 00:39:50.159
in October to slew a spot bitcoin
ETFs launch sometime in this fall as well,
612
00:39:50.719 --> 00:39:54.440
So James, it seems the pattern
or to the process here is the
613
00:39:54.519 --> 00:39:59.199
futures have to get approved first,
then the spot It seems like or can
614
00:39:59.239 --> 00:40:02.039
that change it in the feature so
that it shouldn't be the case, but
615
00:40:02.079 --> 00:40:06.800
it basically that's the way things have
operated so far. So if theory in
616
00:40:06.920 --> 00:40:12.119
theory, if these eight futures ETFs
do launch as some sort of move from
617
00:40:12.119 --> 00:40:15.760
the SEC, like you will get
into Rippell now, but absent some sort
618
00:40:15.800 --> 00:40:19.800
of move from the SEC claiming it
theory to be a security or some other
619
00:40:19.840 --> 00:40:23.760
reason why the SEC isn't going to
allow spot ethereum or these theory and future
620
00:40:24.159 --> 00:40:28.239
I mean, there's nothing saying the
SEC. The SEC's fine to tell people
621
00:40:28.280 --> 00:40:30.000
come and apply and then a few
weeks later deny them. It'd just be
622
00:40:30.119 --> 00:40:32.840
very out of the ordinary. It
would not be a normal move from them,
623
00:40:32.920 --> 00:40:38.800
would be precedent breaking essentially. So
that's why we're so pro or positive
624
00:40:38.800 --> 00:40:42.440
on the fact that we think if
theory and futures ETFs are going to come
625
00:40:42.440 --> 00:40:46.480
alive, Yeah, and then eighth
spot ets would come at some point online
626
00:40:46.760 --> 00:40:51.559
at least two hundred and forty days
if not more, from from when somebody
627
00:40:51.599 --> 00:40:57.360
files for one of those eth spot
ETFs. So let's talk about rebel ruling
628
00:40:57.440 --> 00:41:00.239
because of the impact from the other
all coins, you know, judge ruling
629
00:41:00.239 --> 00:41:05.199
secondary market sales or not securities and
so on and so forth. You know,
630
00:41:05.199 --> 00:41:09.840
what are your thoughts in that ruling
And could XRP still be an asset
631
00:41:10.360 --> 00:41:16.599
given it has some level of clarity
by law from the ruling be approved for
632
00:41:16.639 --> 00:41:21.960
a future is ETF as well as
body ta Yeah, I just I don't
633
00:41:22.000 --> 00:41:28.440
think that XRP is ever gonna get
through there the secs doors essentially, not
634
00:41:28.480 --> 00:41:31.199
anytime soon, even even after that
that loss right and I would call it
635
00:41:31.239 --> 00:41:35.119
a half loss because it kind of
was a loss for Ripple and Ripple Labs,
636
00:41:35.920 --> 00:41:37.840
but a win for the broader crypto
industry because I think what it really
637
00:41:37.880 --> 00:41:42.360
does as far as I'm concerned,
I've talked to we have a litigation and
638
00:41:42.400 --> 00:41:45.280
unless I so that we have a
team of people that look at the stuff,
639
00:41:45.519 --> 00:41:47.320
it's really a win for a coin
base in the crypto industry because it's
640
00:41:47.320 --> 00:41:51.719
like you can't just blank it call
all of these things securities, right,
641
00:41:51.760 --> 00:41:55.800
Like you just can't do that.
And but then again there's other there's other
642
00:41:55.880 --> 00:42:00.679
judges that like in the terror case
and stuff and have like put down the
643
00:42:00.760 --> 00:42:04.840
Judge Tores's order in the Ripple case. There's a lot of new on Like
644
00:42:04.880 --> 00:42:07.360
some of the stuff in Judge George's
case didn't even make sense to me even
645
00:42:07.400 --> 00:42:13.800
as a pro crypto, pro digital
asset guy. So there's some arguments to
646
00:42:13.840 --> 00:42:15.840
be had. It's basically what it
needs to happen, and we keep going
647
00:42:15.880 --> 00:42:20.039
back. We need clarity. Yeah, Congress needs to come in and issue
648
00:42:20.119 --> 00:42:27.119
laws that said, I don't see
the SEC really approving. First of all,
649
00:42:27.360 --> 00:42:31.119
CME would have to list x RP
futures before a future's ETF would launch,
650
00:42:31.400 --> 00:42:36.960
and I can't imagine them allowing a
spot ripple ETF anytime soon. But
651
00:42:36.960 --> 00:42:39.599
again, like I said three weeks
ago, I said, I didn't think
652
00:42:39.840 --> 00:42:44.639
etherean futures ets would becoming anytime soon
unless there's a huge change in the SEC.
653
00:42:44.760 --> 00:42:47.159
So theoretically there could be. But
the SEC is said in that terror
654
00:42:47.159 --> 00:42:51.559
case and multiple other cases that they
believe Judge Torre has got it wrong in
655
00:42:51.599 --> 00:42:54.320
many instances. But when I really
think, like I'll just go back to
656
00:42:54.320 --> 00:42:58.159
what I said initially, it just
kind of makes it so like the SEC
657
00:42:58.320 --> 00:43:00.719
just can't blank and call all these
things secure. There's more nuance there.
658
00:43:01.559 --> 00:43:05.880
Yeah. Absolutely, And I think
a lot of people were calling out Gary
659
00:43:05.920 --> 00:43:07.840
Agains here about that, and I
noticed he updated some of his statements.
660
00:43:07.920 --> 00:43:14.360
He and he said, without pre
judging, Yeah, but to your point,
661
00:43:14.400 --> 00:43:16.239
yeah, I could see that.
You know, they're probably so pissed
662
00:43:16.239 --> 00:43:22.280
off about the Ripple ruling that yet
XRP any applications are not gonna make it
663
00:43:22.440 --> 00:43:27.920
through just from you know, the
whole organization there, and they're not going
664
00:43:27.960 --> 00:43:32.039
to be happy about that. So
I want to also get your thoughts on,
665
00:43:32.920 --> 00:43:36.519
uh, you know, the two
bills that are out there, Lummis
666
00:43:36.559 --> 00:43:40.480
Jill Brand, Patrick McHenry and Glenn
Thompson bills which address a lot what we
667
00:43:40.519 --> 00:43:44.639
were just talking about. Any thoughts
on what might be the leader. I
668
00:43:44.679 --> 00:43:49.360
know the Patrick McHenry version was marked
up in the House, some approvals still
669
00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:52.079
has to go get you know,
voted on in the House floor. But
670
00:43:52.119 --> 00:43:54.559
what are your thoughts on these bills? Yeah, So we actually I have
671
00:43:54.639 --> 00:43:59.239
a colleague who's a regulatory analyst,
so I talked about litigation ls I thought
672
00:43:59.360 --> 00:44:04.719
Michael McLoone macro side. Then we
have somebody in Jamie Douglas Coots who's on
673
00:44:04.719 --> 00:44:08.159
Twitter who's our crypto analyst based in
Australia. And then Nathan Deans are regulations
674
00:44:08.280 --> 00:44:14.480
and law, uh not law,
and like congressional and all those things,
675
00:44:14.480 --> 00:44:19.760
so he covers what's going on in
Congress very closely. He was more bullish
676
00:44:19.760 --> 00:44:22.800
that we get some sort of stable
coin bill potentially this year. Seemed very
677
00:44:22.800 --> 00:44:31.679
skeptical that we'd actually get one of
these uh crypto environments. What what word
678
00:44:31.679 --> 00:44:34.920
did you use? What? What? What? What did you use describe
679
00:44:34.920 --> 00:44:43.239
these these uh laws, these bills? Uh crypt I don't know cryptic work.
680
00:44:43.360 --> 00:44:45.679
I guess yeah, yeah, I
guess framework would be the right word.
681
00:44:45.760 --> 00:44:50.559
He seemed to think they would be
possible like next year. But I
682
00:44:50.840 --> 00:44:53.400
won't pretend to be like some super
knowledgeable person on these, so I'll just
683
00:44:53.400 --> 00:44:59.119
like kind of defer to what he's
saying. But it basically the way that
684
00:44:59.159 --> 00:45:01.880
I'm gathering from talking to different people
is like the pressure is ramping up from
685
00:45:01.920 --> 00:45:07.639
all different angles, and like there's
a lot of things happening from Congress in
686
00:45:07.679 --> 00:45:13.480
the SEC that are just completely inflammatory, if you will, So I think
687
00:45:13.480 --> 00:45:16.239
they're going to have to be a
little more nuanced in the way they handle
688
00:45:16.320 --> 00:45:21.920
things, not as hardlines and I
think the SEC has been trying to do
689
00:45:22.000 --> 00:45:24.639
things that they don't have the power
to do, and they're just trying to
690
00:45:24.679 --> 00:45:30.840
force it through the courts and get
power through through court decisions. And really
691
00:45:30.880 --> 00:45:34.599
they need to be given that power
through Congress as far as I'm concerned from
692
00:45:34.599 --> 00:45:38.639
from things that I read from people
more knowledgeable than me. So we need
693
00:45:38.679 --> 00:45:42.239
these bills, or at least some
version of these bills, or maybe a
694
00:45:42.280 --> 00:45:45.679
combination of these bills to get through
both the House and the Senate before we
695
00:45:45.719 --> 00:45:51.039
get any sort of true regulatory clarity. But for the time being, on
696
00:45:51.119 --> 00:45:54.280
my front, I think the SEC
just approving these bitcoin and each future ets
697
00:45:54.320 --> 00:46:00.519
would be providing a lot of regulatory
I don't know, I don't know clarities
698
00:46:00.639 --> 00:46:06.119
right where, but it would be
providing some regulatory clarity to any investors looking
699
00:46:06.159 --> 00:46:08.599
to invest in this space or looking
to hold this Yeah, and hopefully they
700
00:46:08.599 --> 00:46:15.800
could get something this year before the
crazy election cycle next year. Yeah.
701
00:46:15.840 --> 00:46:17.840
I mean, all the Republican candidates
are pro bitcoin, right, so,
702
00:46:19.840 --> 00:46:24.199
and then you have rfka or coming
out here saying that there he's pro bitcoin
703
00:46:24.280 --> 00:46:27.239
as well. I don't, I
don't know, We'll see I don't know
704
00:46:27.239 --> 00:46:30.719
how much all of them are actually
pro crypto and pro bitcoin, but it's
705
00:46:30.760 --> 00:46:34.280
certainly at the point that the president. If you had talked to people in
706
00:46:34.360 --> 00:46:40.760
bitcoin and crypto seven years ago and
found out that all the political and presidential
707
00:46:40.800 --> 00:46:46.840
candidates have to have a bitcoin stance
and opinion, they'd say it's it's it's
708
00:46:46.840 --> 00:46:51.360
a win for the industry. So
time will tell. Yeah, I mean,
709
00:46:51.400 --> 00:46:54.280
crypto is seeping into the mainstream pop
culture, right, politicians can't ignore
710
00:46:54.360 --> 00:46:59.280
celebrities just popping up, and I
think that's a sign of adoption and growth.
711
00:46:59.320 --> 00:47:02.400
So very bullish, uh, you
know, from a investing standpoint and
712
00:47:02.760 --> 00:47:06.840
adoption standpoint. I know, we
almost up on time, so I'm gonna
713
00:47:06.840 --> 00:47:08.960
ask you a couple more questions and
we'll wrap it up. Any thoughts on
714
00:47:09.039 --> 00:47:14.920
the PayPal stable coin I was launched
yesterday on the Ethereum blockchain. It seems
715
00:47:15.360 --> 00:47:21.679
a huge, huge validation of the
real world application utility of blockchain and improving
716
00:47:21.719 --> 00:47:27.000
payments. And they did it on
a permission less uh blockchain as in Ethereum.
717
00:47:27.400 --> 00:47:30.639
Second, you know, by market
cap on the list, So I
718
00:47:30.639 --> 00:47:35.880
think that's pretty incredible. Yeah,
I mean, one, it just shows
719
00:47:36.000 --> 00:47:39.559
that like there is real interest from
incumbent players in the trad five space.
720
00:47:40.360 --> 00:47:46.440
This case, obviously it's just a
fintech company, so I think that's a
721
00:47:46.480 --> 00:47:50.639
positive aspect here. The other the
other part of this is that's unique is
722
00:47:50.679 --> 00:47:54.880
like they went after finance, specifically
working with Paxos. Now Paxos is working
723
00:47:54.920 --> 00:48:00.559
with PayPal and just kind of gives
us a little more credence into like maybe
724
00:48:00.559 --> 00:48:05.760
what's going on from a higher level
is they're pushing this more towards partners they
725
00:48:05.800 --> 00:48:08.519
trust, so away from finance,
maybe a little bit towards coin based via
726
00:48:08.559 --> 00:48:13.880
this SA. So yes, they're
suing coin based, but maybe I'm sure
727
00:48:13.920 --> 00:48:16.079
the SEC would much prefer everyone to
be on coin based on finance, based
728
00:48:16.119 --> 00:48:22.239
on the lawsuits they've filed and the
claims they've made in that lawsuit. And
729
00:48:22.280 --> 00:48:25.480
this would also signify kind of like
we'd rather like, if all this crypto
730
00:48:25.480 --> 00:48:30.559
stuff is going to happen, we'd
rather do with like regulated and people within
731
00:48:30.639 --> 00:48:36.760
our umbrella that we have oversight over, which some crypto cypherpunk people would definitely
732
00:48:36.800 --> 00:48:38.599
say is a bad thing, and
I've seen it on Twitter people calling it
733
00:48:38.639 --> 00:48:42.960
a bad thing. But I think
it just shows that the SEC again,
734
00:48:43.000 --> 00:48:47.400
and other regulators in this instance are
kind of being forced to deal with what's
735
00:48:47.400 --> 00:48:53.719
actually happening in the ground. Yeah, and world Coin, what are your
736
00:48:53.719 --> 00:48:58.000
thoughts on Sam Altman's project. You're
going to get your eyes scanned to get
737
00:48:58.039 --> 00:49:02.079
some world coin its tokens. I
actually just listen to a podcast one of
738
00:49:02.079 --> 00:49:07.199
the founders of world coin. I
mean, I get the problem they're trying
739
00:49:07.199 --> 00:49:09.239
to solve, right, Like,
there are going to be a problem with
740
00:49:09.320 --> 00:49:13.039
lots of bots, But there's enough
bots on Twitter as it is. As
741
00:49:13.039 --> 00:49:15.559
Ai becomes better and better and better, there's going to be a million of
742
00:49:15.559 --> 00:49:19.480
them, So proofy human makes sense. I don't really have a strong opinion
743
00:49:19.719 --> 00:49:22.079
on the tokenomics or anything like that. It seems very sketchy to me,
744
00:49:22.079 --> 00:49:25.119
but I'm not an expert on it. I'm interesting in it. Maybe they'll
745
00:49:25.239 --> 00:49:29.840
maybe they have figured out a way
to do proof of person, but there's
746
00:49:29.840 --> 00:49:31.719
obviously people a lot smarter than me
criticizing the hell out of them, and
747
00:49:32.079 --> 00:49:36.880
there's obviously people a lot smarter than
me working on world Coin's behalf. So
748
00:49:37.760 --> 00:49:40.559
I'm kind of just in a wait
and see type mode. But it's super
749
00:49:40.639 --> 00:49:45.840
interesting, I guess, is my
view here? But I'm not somebody I
750
00:49:45.840 --> 00:49:50.159
would trust their opinion or say I
have a better understanding than anyone else.
751
00:49:50.880 --> 00:49:52.599
Yeah, I mean, and to
your point, I absolutely understand the problem
752
00:49:52.599 --> 00:49:54.719
they're trying to solve, and you
know, some of the things you mentioned
753
00:49:54.840 --> 00:49:59.000
UBI and so forth, these are
problems are going to come up in the
754
00:49:59.039 --> 00:50:06.119
economy, in the world. But
the orbitus dystopian man. So it's cool
755
00:50:06.159 --> 00:50:07.400
to look at, Like part of
me just wants to see one, but
756
00:50:07.440 --> 00:50:15.639
maybe at my irispond scan, even
without my acceptance or approval. But yeah,
757
00:50:15.679 --> 00:50:17.840
I would love to see one in
person. So That's where I'm at
758
00:50:17.960 --> 00:50:21.599
right now. But again, like, yeah, the part of it is
759
00:50:21.639 --> 00:50:24.519
like this is going to sound bad
to cryptoserver funks, but like I already
760
00:50:24.559 --> 00:50:29.079
have all of my data everywhere,
Like I'm on a bunch of social media
761
00:50:29.119 --> 00:50:31.800
platforms. I have like accepted all
this stuff. Like I've kind of accepted
762
00:50:31.800 --> 00:50:35.000
the fact that I know a lot
of people would be mad at me for
763
00:50:35.039 --> 00:50:37.920
saying this, but like I'm at
the point where like it's already gone,
764
00:50:37.039 --> 00:50:42.920
Like people have access to me no
matter what as it is. So it's
765
00:50:42.920 --> 00:50:45.039
true, Yeah, I'm not as
worried about it as many other people,
766
00:50:45.039 --> 00:50:50.119
which I know plenty of people in
the crypto and big specifically bitcoint one,
767
00:50:50.400 --> 00:50:57.159
your own sovereign currency, owning yourself, stuff like that. So yeah,
768
00:50:57.199 --> 00:51:00.280
I'm not as concerned as most people, but I am definitely take it with
769
00:51:00.320 --> 00:51:02.159
a grain assault. Yeah, I'm
of the same mindset. I know.
770
00:51:02.440 --> 00:51:07.599
Look, the bitcoin hardcore maximalist they
have that religious fervor anything they want to
771
00:51:07.639 --> 00:51:12.079
hammer it would hammer, right.
But look, at the end of the
772
00:51:12.199 --> 00:51:15.960
day, the government has your thumb
print and everything about you, Facebook,
773
00:51:16.000 --> 00:51:22.039
Instagram, everything has some level of
information about you. They already have data
774
00:51:22.119 --> 00:51:24.719
mind it, so they retarget you
for ads and everything. You know.
775
00:51:25.320 --> 00:51:28.800
Yeah, it helps me get more
targeted ads. I'm all for it.
776
00:51:30.199 --> 00:51:35.079
Yeah, I don't know, we'll
see. And also those bitcoin maxi's,
777
00:51:35.079 --> 00:51:38.480
obviously they're very good for like maintaining
the statscope of the bitcoin ecosystem. Some
778
00:51:38.519 --> 00:51:43.679
of them are a little aggressive in
my opinion, but like they're a valuable
779
00:51:43.719 --> 00:51:47.679
add to the ecosystem as far as
I've concerned, I just am not one
780
00:51:47.719 --> 00:51:52.599
of those people personally. Yeah,
all right, James wrap up questions.
781
00:51:52.840 --> 00:51:54.519
If you could create your own metaverse, where would you go to? What
782
00:51:54.559 --> 00:52:00.440
would it be about. You said
these questions beforehand, and I was like,
783
00:52:00.440 --> 00:52:02.960
I need to think about that one, and I completely forgot to think
784
00:52:02.960 --> 00:52:07.559
about that one. Uh, I
have I have no idea I got,
785
00:52:07.639 --> 00:52:13.039
I got nothing. I know nothing
about the metaverse aside from Mark Zuckerberg has
786
00:52:13.039 --> 00:52:20.280
bet as life on it and losing
billions everything like rapid fire questions. Favorite
787
00:52:20.320 --> 00:52:27.519
food, uh Buffalo wings, favorite
musician or band or steak a sctould go
788
00:52:27.599 --> 00:52:32.599
to a Ribby steak, red hot
chili peppers. Oh no, Billy Joel,
789
00:52:32.679 --> 00:52:37.559
I'll go Billy Joel. Of course
I'm a little young for that,
790
00:52:37.599 --> 00:52:42.119
but I I love Billy Joel.
Oh me too, man? Like,
791
00:52:42.239 --> 00:52:45.960
Look, I'm not I'm not demographic
that that fits Billy Joel fan Billy Joel.
792
00:52:45.960 --> 00:52:47.880
I'm look, I play guitar.
I'm too music, and I'm like
793
00:52:47.920 --> 00:52:51.480
Billy Joel is good man. I
can listen to them all day. Ye
794
00:52:52.159 --> 00:52:57.599
favorite movie Shawshank Redemption. I just
watched that the other day. It's a
795
00:52:57.599 --> 00:53:02.760
good movie. Uh. Favorite book, so I love like the Wheel of
796
00:53:02.800 --> 00:53:07.239
Time and fantasy type series. But
for this, I'll also say I'm going
797
00:53:07.280 --> 00:53:13.280
to give two options here that like
are more related to Crypto billion Dollars Whale,
798
00:53:13.440 --> 00:53:16.719
which is about the one MDB scandal. Basically, this guy stiled billions
799
00:53:16.760 --> 00:53:22.199
of dollars from Malaysia and just a
fraud that was able to continue going is
800
00:53:22.559 --> 00:53:25.440
the story reads like fiction. And
same with Bad Blood, which is not
801
00:53:25.519 --> 00:53:29.840
Elizabeth Holmes. Those are two stories
that I've read in the last like six
802
00:53:29.920 --> 00:53:32.679
seven years whenever it is, and
like it always every I keep seeing fraud
803
00:53:32.840 --> 00:53:37.239
like all over the place in crypto
and just reading those, It's just amazing
804
00:53:37.239 --> 00:53:40.199
how people can get sucked in into
what's going on, and like I always
805
00:53:40.280 --> 00:53:44.119
kind of like I'm super bullish on
these things. Like recently, I'm like
806
00:53:44.400 --> 00:53:49.039
obsessed with the LK ninety nine superconductor
stuff all over the internet and I can't
807
00:53:49.039 --> 00:53:51.480
get enough of it. But I'm
like I go back and I think about
808
00:53:51.519 --> 00:53:53.880
these people who committed fraud and just
lied to people for years and years and
809
00:53:53.960 --> 00:53:57.639
years and got away with it.
So like I always go back to it
810
00:53:57.639 --> 00:54:00.239
and think about, like what could
be the altar the benefit here and aren't
811
00:54:00.239 --> 00:54:04.639
they actually doing what they're say they're
doing? Look for those signs that we're
812
00:54:04.719 --> 00:54:07.679
there for Joe Low and one MDP
and Elizabeth Holmes and in Bad Blood.
813
00:54:07.760 --> 00:54:14.000
So those two books have like really
changed the way I look at things,
814
00:54:14.000 --> 00:54:16.840
and particularly in relation to crypto as
as I'm sure you're aware with all the
815
00:54:17.400 --> 00:54:22.239
frauds we've seen with Celtia s FDx
or I should I guess I should say
816
00:54:22.280 --> 00:54:25.159
alleged frauds, but yeah, yeah, no, it's a great point.
817
00:54:25.280 --> 00:54:29.719
Human psychology, right, never fails. It's it's just a different scheme,
818
00:54:29.800 --> 00:54:34.400
a different structure, different company,
different name, but human psychology still remains
819
00:54:34.440 --> 00:54:37.679
the same. We're still human moving
as we move forward and we get fooled.
820
00:54:38.880 --> 00:54:42.480
And when you're not working at Bloomberg, what are you doing for fun
821
00:54:42.519 --> 00:54:46.000
As a hobby. I'm an endurance
runner, so I'm a runner, but
822
00:54:46.000 --> 00:54:51.360
I like endorance sports in general,
biking, running, anything like that,
823
00:54:51.559 --> 00:54:53.280
and soccer. I played soccer most
of my life, so I'm a big
824
00:54:53.320 --> 00:54:58.039
soccer player. Don't do that as
much anymore. But yeah, running and
825
00:54:58.159 --> 00:55:01.960
endurance type events are really uh my
go to I did in college and try
826
00:55:02.039 --> 00:55:06.519
to. I'm a shell of my
former self, but I still enjoy doing
827
00:55:06.519 --> 00:55:08.679
it once in a while. James, pleasure chatting with you, my friend.
828
00:55:08.679 --> 00:55:12.800
I'll have to have you back on
as you know, we get to
829
00:55:12.920 --> 00:55:17.159
the the end the ninth inning on
these spot ETF approvals, and we'll talk
830
00:55:17.159 --> 00:55:21.000
more about that, But thank you
for joining me. Yes, we're both
831
00:55:21.000 --> 00:55:23.159
in Jersey and we'll do that one
in person. I look forward to it.
