Huge Week Ahead for Crypto: Clarity Act Vote in the Senate! | Ron Hammond

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How quick of a turnaround would it be if they
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get this initial vote done? Would it be the following
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week that they can start the process of the floor vote?
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They would go actually hold on the bill immediately right
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afterwards so that the debate would start kicking off. You know,
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they allocated a couple hours to floor time. They might
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not use all the hours for debate. But the big
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thing to watch is if we get to that threshold,
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we get to that point, we're saying, all right, now
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it's time to debate this on the floor. Let's see,
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you know, Elizabeth Warren versus Tim Scott or Senator Lummis
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or something to that effect.
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Link will be in the description. Hey, folks, welcome into
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the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm Tony Edward, and joining me
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is Ron Hammond, who's the head of policy and advocacy
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at Winter Mute.
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Ron, great to have you. Always good to be on, Tony.
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I've got a lot to talk about, and the big
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week's coming up, so looking forward to diving into all
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of it.
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Absolutely, Ron.
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I thought of you because next week we got the
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Senate potentially looking to get the vote started with the
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Clarity Act. I think it's earmarked for September 15th, if
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I'm not mistaken. what's the latest? Where do we stand
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as far as what's going to happen next?
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Yeah, so there's a lot happening right now, to your point.
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And just to clarify as well, this is the vote
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to have a vote later on for clarity. So this
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is just the procedural vote. But typically, people won't vote
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for this if they don't like the bill, usually. But
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that's kind of the situation we're into now. So at
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a high level, the latest text just came out from
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the Clarity Act drafters. We saw about a hundred technical
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changes of sorts throughout the bill draft, you know, fairly
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small stuff.
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Nothing was too surprising.
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Some tweaks to more of the AML provisions, DeFi provisions,
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and a few other areas as well. But overall, you know,
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We've seen this bill and the 600 pages for a
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couple of months, almost a year now at this point.
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So nothing too shocking. But it seems like this is
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the text they're going voting on pretty shortly. So what's
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going to happen is that two o'clock on the 15th
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on Tuesday, they're going to have.
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The procedural votes.
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If they get 60 votes, then this moves forward to amendments, debates,
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and then eventually the final floor vote. If we don't
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get past that first vote, the procedural vote on the 15th,
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It's done. Now, again, it's not dead in the water.
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The bill can come back. We still have plenty of
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other weeks in Congress, especially in the lame duck area.
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But this is kind of the starting gun here, putting
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folks on the record saying, all right, you don't have
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to like this bill. You have qualms whether it be
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on epics or stable coin yield or something to that effect.
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But guess what?
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If you think that this bill overall is a good product,
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which it is, is bipartisan, which it is, then at
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least we can move the debate forward. And if you
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want to tweak it via amendments and such, that's where
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you can start moving that needle there. But in order
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to get to that point, we got to clear 60 and, uh,
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it's looking a little tough right now, just based off
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the public statements from both Democrats and Republicans.
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Yeah. I was going to mention that some Senate Republicans
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came out saying things are not looking too good, but
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let's say Ron, they, they were able to rally at
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the last minute, right. And get this done. And this
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is the vote to allow for an actual vote on
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the Senate floor.
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Right.
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Um, How quick of a turnaround would it be if
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they get this initial vote done? Would it be the
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following week that they can start the process of the
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floor vote?
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They would go actually hold on the bill immediately right
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afterwards so that the debate would start kicking off. You know,
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they allocated a couple hours to floor time. They might
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not use all the hours for debate. But the big
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thing to watch is if we get to that threshold,
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if we get to that point, we're saying, all right,
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now it's time to debate this on the floor. Let's see,
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you know, Elizabeth Warren versus Tim Scott or Senator Lummis
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or something to that effect.
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Then it gets really interesting.
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And then also, you have to think about all these
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other groups who have been trying to change the Clarity
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Act in one way, shape, or form. So let's take,
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for example, the banks and the Indian Tribes or American
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Gaming Association. You're going to see them really pushing heavily
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through either Democrats or Republicans to try to get their
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tweaks or amendments in that they were unsuccessful during the
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drafting phase of the Clarity Act and try to get
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that inserted into this final product of the Clarity Act.
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It'll largely be unsuccessful, probably, because, again, they've tried this before.
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They've tried to make tweaks. Some major, in some cases,
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like the banks, for example, have been unsuccessful at every turn.
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But this is kind of the last gas you could
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say of saying, this is what this sector wants, or
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this wants to see change, and we're going to put
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this to a vote for amendment.
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But overall... You know, amendment process can be pretty wild.
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We might see some things out there that we didn't,
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weren't on our radar, but it's kind of one of
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those like last bills leaving the station for the rest
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of the year. So a lot of senators are going
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to say, hey, like if I want to get something
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done on housing, maybe this is like the opportunity to
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try to sneak something into the Clarity Act, which, and again,
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it's not surprising politics for the something to happen, but
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the amendment process itself, if we get to that point,
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could be pretty dramatic and pretty saucy, to say the least.
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So I'm looking forward to getting to that point if
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we get there, but just letting folks know we are
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not out of the woods.
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We clear 60 on Tuesday.
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Now, let's say, Ron, the worst case scenario happens that
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this bill does not get the vote it needs to
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move to the floor for an actual vote. You mentioned
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the bill is not dead, but what would be the
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updated timeline? Would it be 2027 or maybe beyond that?
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So this is the frustrating part is that you're going
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to have a lot of Democrats. As I mentioned, we
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just had the bill text, you know, the final, final,
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final version come out yesterday.
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And of course, there could be more tweaks before Tuesday.
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But we're already starting to see some of the detractors saying, well,
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I need more time to review this bill. I just
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got this dumped on my desk. And the truth is,
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as you and I both very well know, this has
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been out there for over a year. The House has
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already voted on it. Two thirds of the House support it,
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which you can't get two thirds of Congress to agree
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on anything, let alone just renaming a post office. So
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the fact that we got to this point, is pretty incredible.
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And it's kind of BS when you have a lot
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of these other folks who will come out more and
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more pretty soon saying, well, this just came out. I
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don't think we're ready for a vote. Let's delay this
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till after November. And Senator Lummis, especially, you can tell
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from her public statements and floor speeches, she's pretty frustrated
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and rightfully so. She's saying like, hey, look, we've had
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a lot of these debates. We have talked about this
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at nuance. The bank lobby is a good example of
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when they have no success with some of their members
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on the bank committees and kind of the market process
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that happened earlier this year. They're now going to try
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to pick off Centers from, you know, random states that
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usually are involved in crypto legislation or banking legislation saying, oh,
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my gosh, there's this huge loophole. You have to kill
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this bill because it's going to destroy rural lending or
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something to that effect. And we saw ADA, the American
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Bank Association, ICBA, and a few other bank trades come
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out yesterday against the Clarity Act saying major changes still
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need to be done on the yield issue. So the
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banks are still fighting this. They're trying to pick off
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any votes they can. I mentioned the casinos as well.
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They're heavily involved as well. So it's going to be
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kind of frustrating to hear all these excuses for people saying, well,
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I'm not ready to vote on this bill. But as
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far as from the truth, the bill's been out there
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for quite some time. And if we all know this,
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it kind of comes down to ethics. And even then,
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we've seen a really split opinion of Democrats of like,
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what does ethics look like? You know, what do you
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want for ethics? You want to ban, you know, divest
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completely for the Trump family? Do you want to make
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sure that barred entirely from the industry after the fact? Uh,
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you know, I made the joke, but it's like, he
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talked to five different Democrats. They're gonna give you five
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different answers of what they want. So, um, and of
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course the administration has to play ball with them too,
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and they have made some concessions, but, uh, it seems
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like even when they make concessions, it's not enough. So, um,
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that's the frustrating part is that the politics have gotten
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involved here. And, um, you know, it needs cooler heads
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prevail to say, Hey, look, like this is not just
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trying to give Trump a win before the election or
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vice versa. Like this is very much a regulatory bill
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about security commodities law and custody and all these other
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very important positions.
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That's been by Parson since 2017.
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So I'm personally frustrated because I've waited a long time
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to get to this point and it's just the politics
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um that is going to potentially be dragging this down
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and that's just how the american system works right now
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or doesn't work so it.
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Sounds like the ethics is the biggest hurdle um has
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the white house given any indication that they are going
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to you know send over their approval of the latest
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ethics draft of language Yeah.
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Patrick, we went on a semaphore for an interview, I
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believe it was yesterday, really in depth saying, hey, look,
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we've had back and forth talks with Republicans. We've sent
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some language over to the Democrats and vice versa. So
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these talks are happening. And so, like, by no means
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am I saying that this bill is dead in the
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water 0%. I'm still personally at a 5% to 10%
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chance in 2026 because.
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A, it's crypto policy.
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We have seen these, you know, Last seconds, snafus or
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surprises going one way or the other for legislation.
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And it's always the last second. So drama is always expected.
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So I'm sure that there's a realm that this could
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line up perfectly and work. A lot of folks are
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still talking to make that happen. On the other side, though,
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there's a lot of folks saying like, yeah, no, we'll
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do this next year.
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We'll do this in 2027, 2028. And of course, that's
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when we have a pretty.
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A tough board to deal with, especially if the Democrats
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take over this House, for example, which many people are expecting.
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As we've seen, Maxine Waters did not support this bill,
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and she gets to decide what bill dies, what bill
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moves forward. And even some folks who stuck their head
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up saying, I actually could lead the Finance Service Committee
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or the Ag Committee, for example, those Democrats also.
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Didn't support the Clarity Act going through.
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So It looks like at least the folks who determine
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what bills get votes or not next Congress, if it's
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a Democrat, likely will not advance a clarity version in
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any way, shape or form. So we could be in
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a space in this holding pattern for over two to
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three years. So we hope that's not the case. The
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regulators are moving. We've kind of seen that with a
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lot of the actions recently. But overall, you know, this
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is kind of do or die time, whether it be
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this month or November or December.
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Is there any change on the Democrat side with regards
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to ethics with the backdrop of Hunter Biden? Obviously, he's
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not in office, but he's the son of the former
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president launching a meme coin where I can't just attack
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Trump and say, well, Trump has a meme coin. He's
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making money off of the crypto industry where it kind
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of balances out things that, OK, look, we may have
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more Democrats start to launch meme coins and make money
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off of crypto. So let's get the legislation done.
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No, exactly.
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And it's kind of funny because there's been a lot
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of debate over what happens when the president or the
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president's sons or daughters leave the administration.
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They're not in power anymore.
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Can they still make money off their name, image, likeness,
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or what have you in the crypto space afterwards? And
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that's been a hotly debated topic. The crypto industry is
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not really weighed in personally, but of course, it's more
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happening to the White House, Democrats, Republicans, and a bunch
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of lawyers. And it's odd because... there's a lot of
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folks on one side saying, yeah, the Trump son should
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not make any money whatsoever. Even after he's out of power,
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there should be no money whatsoever made in this sector.
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And now we're seeing Hunter Biden from the opposite party
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doing that with his meme coin. And of course, like
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any meme coin, did crash pretty significantly. I'm still surprised
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people get involved in meme coins to that level, at
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least on the political side, but to each their own.
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But overall, it hasn't elicited the reaction that I thought
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it would as much in DC. It's been more of
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saying like, oh, meme coins are still around. Or, oh, well,
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that's stupid. You know, why are these things still around?
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It's like, well, you know, we have a solution for that.
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But unfortunately, the politics are getting in the way. So
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it's not going to change people's minds, it seems. But
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of course, I would still keep looking at some of
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these key Democrats. So you're Senator Gillibrand from New York.
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You're Cory Booker from New Jersey. Mark Warner from Virginia,
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as well as Gallego from Arizona. I'd say look at
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those four, because all their statements can really be a
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domino effect. If you start seeing, you know, one or
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two or three start changing their tone a little bit
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on ethics saying like, I think actually we found a
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way to have some compromise or the white house is
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engaging very productively with us.
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Those are really good signs.
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And again, those talks are happening, but the public statements
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of saying like progress is being made from the Democrats
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has not come out yet. So I keep an eye
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on those folks because if you get one or two
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of those folks, you can lead to probably five, six,
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seven votes from Democrat side. And then all of a
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sudden 60 becomes very, very possible there. So, um, so yeah,
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keep an eye on those four centers, see what they
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say leading up to this vote. The upside is that
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clarity is kind of the hot topic in D.C. It's
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all over the D.C. political podcast right now. So every senator,
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00:14:20.700 --> 00:14:22.360
when they're walking to the Capitol right now, is being
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asked about the Clarity Act. So it's a weird moment.
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We've never been at the main stage of the biggest
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stage possible in politics.
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And we're here right now. So everyone's going to go
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on record. And that's going to be interesting to watch.
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Now, I'm seeing a lot of dialogue with Patrick Witt
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and some folks in the ABA and the banking sector today.
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You know, the banks got a compromise coming out of
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the Senate Banking Committee, and yet they still want more.
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They act as if they haven't gotten anything, which is ridiculous.
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Are they still lobbying hard to try to eliminate stablecoin
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yield from platforms like Coinbase and things like that?
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Yeah, it's really ridiculous.
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I think, you know, their lobbying strategy has been a whack, Ketely,
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like just watching from afar. Their entire process, even getting
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back a year ago, which, you know, in the Genius Act,
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it was just, it's been really bizarre. And Ketely, they
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haven't done a good job. But they have doubled down
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aggressively with the Clarity Act. I mentioned that they were
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unsuccessful getting everything they wanted in the markup stage, in
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the committee stage back in January. And so what they're
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doing now is they're going to people who have never
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dealt crypto before saying, hey, 80-year-old sender, guess what? all
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lending in, you know, rural Mississippi or, you know, pick
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a state is going to go away now because of
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the saying called stable coins that you've never heard of, uh,
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except for maybe the genius act. Um, and there's a
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loophole and you forgot about the loophole and we're here
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to change it. And that's the narrative that they're pushing here.
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And they're having a lot of the community bankers coming in. Um,
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so in the narrative, and again, these can be bankers,
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at least from the folks I'm talking to, they don't
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really know too much about stable coins either. They're just
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giving a piece of paper and some talking points. Um,
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that's a lobby in some regards, but, um, Overall, I
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think the folks who kind of got into the weeds
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a little bit on this issue to your point saying like, oh, wait,
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they have made compromises. Oh, wait, like the crypto industry
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didn't get like a free pass here. Like they had
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made some concessions and some pretty significant ones, too. So
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that's the most frustrating part is the narrative really does
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carry a lot of weight here, especially with the banks
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and a lot of big war chests.
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If you walk into the D.C.
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Airport right now, you're going to probably see an ad
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regards to stablecoin yield or rural lending or something to
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00:16:16.210 --> 00:16:19.519
that effect. from one of those bank trades plastered all over.
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00:16:19.639 --> 00:16:23.080
So that's just how the DC game is played. It's
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kind of frustrating that we have to keep at least
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reverting the point being like, hey, look, we didn't think
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this is an ideal situation either, but we made a compromise.
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We're adults. This is how it works.
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00:16:31.509 --> 00:16:33.309
And the banks have just done the opposite and fought
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at every single turn. Or they've said at one point, yeah,
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00:16:36.750 --> 00:16:38.549
we're okay with it. And then behind the scenes are
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00:16:38.570 --> 00:16:41.860
lobbying aggressively against it. And that's just what the crypto
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00:16:41.879 --> 00:16:45.179
industry hasn't done. We've been pretty transparent and pretty blatant
387
00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:47.690
of what we wanted. And I think in the meantime, too,
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00:16:47.710 --> 00:16:49.620
to your point about Patrick Witt, you know, the banks
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00:16:49.769 --> 00:16:51.980
have made a lot of enemies, especially the Republican side the.
390
00:16:51.919 --> 00:16:54.379
Past five years. It's kind of weird seeing that shift where,
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00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:56.259
you know, you're seeing that banks and Republicans are always
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00:16:56.340 --> 00:16:58.500
hand in hand post Dodd-Frank, post financial crisis.
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00:16:58.980 --> 00:17:03.600
And it's now completely switched. And Republicans are very frustrated.
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And you can tell the White House, including President Trump,
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are throwing darts at them. So, like, it's really weird
396
00:17:08.809 --> 00:17:11.079
to see this dynamic politically play out. But of course,
397
00:17:11.200 --> 00:17:13.660
it's probably testament to how the bank lobbies kind of
398
00:17:14.400 --> 00:17:17.420
muff this up relationship-wise, at least the Republicans, and how
399
00:17:17.880 --> 00:17:22.160
them being so aggressive and doubling down unnecessarily, especially when
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00:17:22.180 --> 00:17:24.329
the arguments don't hold water, is not a good sign.
401
00:17:24.369 --> 00:17:26.420
So we'll see what their position is after the fact.
402
00:17:26.509 --> 00:17:29.289
But right now, they're not making any friends. I'll put
403
00:17:29.309 --> 00:17:29.609
it that way.
404
00:17:29.630 --> 00:17:32.049
I don't know if you saw this news, but yesterday
405
00:17:32.210 --> 00:17:35.309
Coinbase announced that they're partnering with a company called Move,
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00:17:35.329 --> 00:17:38.190
if I'm not mistaken, to help community banks and credit
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00:17:38.289 --> 00:17:41.349
unions to be able to offer stablecoins. Uh, this seems
408
00:17:41.390 --> 00:17:44.380
like a chess move by Coinbase, uh, both as a business,
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00:17:44.410 --> 00:17:46.299
but also to help the clarity act to kind of
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00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:48.859
eliminate that narrative that, okay, these banks are going to
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00:17:48.880 --> 00:17:50.640
be in trouble. They're going to have bank runs, whatever,
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because the stable coins, we know that's ridiculous, but do
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00:17:53.220 --> 00:17:54.700
you think that that could carry some weight?
414
00:17:55.339 --> 00:17:55.539
Yeah.
415
00:17:55.599 --> 00:17:57.559
I mean, we've seen a split in the banks, which
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00:17:57.599 --> 00:18:00.470
is really interesting on the lobbying side. So like Goldman Sachs, they, um,
417
00:18:00.650 --> 00:18:03.329
they're part of these bank associations, but they even came
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00:18:03.369 --> 00:18:06.130
out against their bank association and said, actually, no, we're
419
00:18:06.150 --> 00:18:08.619
for the clarity act. Um, And I think what we're seeing,
420
00:18:08.640 --> 00:18:11.230
at least with some banks being publicly against their own
421
00:18:11.269 --> 00:18:13.089
trades and saying, like, actually, you know what the Clarity
422
00:18:13.150 --> 00:18:17.210
Act as is. I think you should look at more
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00:18:17.289 --> 00:18:18.970
like who's a retail facing bank. So you're kind of
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00:18:18.990 --> 00:18:22.250
more your JP Morgan chases potentially or your large institutions.
425
00:18:22.410 --> 00:18:24.200
Those are the ones that seem to be pushing back
426
00:18:24.319 --> 00:18:26.720
against the Clarity Act or stable coin yield rewards.
427
00:18:27.579 --> 00:18:28.440
But they're going through the.
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00:18:28.420 --> 00:18:31.940
Community banks because community banks have a lot better political
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00:18:32.380 --> 00:18:33.940
apparatus with them. You know, it's a lot easier to
430
00:18:34.000 --> 00:18:38.299
talk to your local banker from small town Iowa versus
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00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:40.920
someone over in New York or something like that, that
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00:18:40.940 --> 00:18:42.099
you live in the same state.
433
00:18:43.119 --> 00:18:44.720
But overall, the banks are smart.
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00:18:44.759 --> 00:18:46.880
They know that the community banks definitely are a better
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00:18:46.980 --> 00:18:49.079
messenger of this message, even if they don't know what
436
00:18:49.099 --> 00:18:51.819
they're talking about. But we've seen some of the banks
437
00:18:51.880 --> 00:18:54.519
like Goldman saying, yeah, actually, no, like this is good
438
00:18:54.539 --> 00:18:56.819
with us. Also, the status quo means that Coinbase can
439
00:18:56.859 --> 00:18:59.759
still offer a crap ton of yield on stables.
440
00:18:59.880 --> 00:19:01.759
And like, there's nothing we can do about this.
441
00:19:01.920 --> 00:19:04.470
So that can be for both deposits as well as
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00:19:04.490 --> 00:19:06.390
for payments, whereas we just want to protect the payments.
443
00:19:06.450 --> 00:19:06.670
So yeah.
444
00:19:07.250 --> 00:19:09.650
That's been the interesting thing to watch is some of
445
00:19:09.670 --> 00:19:12.150
the banks splinter from other groups. And we also see
446
00:19:12.250 --> 00:19:14.309
folks like Coinbase, who've been very good on the lobbying side,
447
00:19:16.329 --> 00:19:18.589
move to your point to get the community banks involved.
448
00:19:18.630 --> 00:19:22.039
So is it too little, too late? Unclear. But behind
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00:19:22.059 --> 00:19:23.119
the scenes, that's what's happening.
450
00:19:23.180 --> 00:19:26.339
It's more of these G-SIBs, these large institutions are utilizing
451
00:19:26.359 --> 00:19:29.240
the community bankers to sell the narrative because they know
452
00:19:29.259 --> 00:19:32.539
they have a better, at least, outreach with the certain
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00:19:32.559 --> 00:19:35.759
state centers from whichever state there is out there. So-
454
00:19:36.140 --> 00:19:39.140
We'll see how it works out, but you'll probably see
455
00:19:39.160 --> 00:19:40.720
a lot on Tuesday come to fruition.
456
00:19:41.880 --> 00:19:45.690
You mentioned in addition to the ethics, the banking, stablecoin
457
00:19:45.710 --> 00:19:50.680
yield situation, the tribes and the casino items with prediction.
458
00:19:51.559 --> 00:19:54.539
Is there any pushback on the DeFi? I think it's
459
00:19:54.559 --> 00:19:56.480
the BRCA, if I'm not mistaken.
460
00:19:57.130 --> 00:19:59.440
Yeah, we saw a decent amount of pushback, you know,
461
00:19:59.460 --> 00:20:01.319
and that's coming more in the form of law enforcement groups.
462
00:20:01.339 --> 00:20:03.819
So it was a really actually big development, even though,
463
00:20:04.380 --> 00:20:07.160
you know, it might sound small and outside, like the D.C.
464
00:20:07.180 --> 00:20:09.559
World, this is important. The sheriffs dropped their opposition to
465
00:20:09.579 --> 00:20:10.180
the Clarity Act.
466
00:20:10.440 --> 00:20:13.380
And we saw, I'd say about six months ago, if
467
00:20:13.420 --> 00:20:16.680
that happened, we'd probably get four to five Democrat senators
468
00:20:16.880 --> 00:20:18.880
right then and there because that was their main concern.
469
00:20:20.039 --> 00:20:22.769
So like Cortez Masto from Nevada, Mark Warner from Virginia,
470
00:20:22.809 --> 00:20:24.740
they've all said, hey, we've got concerns on the DeFi
471
00:20:24.769 --> 00:20:26.509
side and we're hearing this from law enforcement.
472
00:20:27.150 --> 00:20:28.230
Um, but now with all the law.
473
00:20:28.150 --> 00:20:32.470
Enforcement groups, either now in support or neutral on clarity, um,
474
00:20:33.029 --> 00:20:34.329
it pretty much addresses a lot of the things that
475
00:20:34.349 --> 00:20:36.529
the senators were asking for. And again, changes haven't made
476
00:20:36.670 --> 00:20:38.769
since then too. So it's not like they just told
477
00:20:38.789 --> 00:20:40.309
them like to back down. Like this was, there was
478
00:20:40.349 --> 00:20:43.769
a whole negotiation back and forth and such. Um, banks,
479
00:20:43.809 --> 00:20:46.170
please take notes. This is how it works. But the
480
00:20:46.630 --> 00:20:48.710
fact that the law enforcement folks backed down and also
481
00:20:48.769 --> 00:20:52.190
went to neutral or positive on the bill, it showcases that, A,
482
00:20:52.750 --> 00:20:55.190
we probably could get a decent amount of cohort of
483
00:20:55.190 --> 00:20:57.329
60 votes if that was the case, if there wasn't
484
00:20:57.369 --> 00:21:01.519
any ethics concerns or political concerns on this. But overall, DeFi,
485
00:21:01.539 --> 00:21:03.500
shout out to the Blockchain Association, shout out to the
486
00:21:03.539 --> 00:21:05.960
DeFi Education Fund, CCI, and a few others.
487
00:21:05.980 --> 00:21:07.519
They've been really pounding the pavement here.
488
00:21:07.980 --> 00:21:10.799
And I've gotten the right groups now in the right
489
00:21:10.839 --> 00:21:13.299
spot on the lobbying side, but also have to address
490
00:21:13.359 --> 00:21:15.259
a lot of the concerns that these Democrat senators who
491
00:21:15.279 --> 00:21:17.079
carry a lot of weight, who carry potentially a lot
492
00:21:17.099 --> 00:21:20.680
more votes to get in the better spots. It's now, unfortunately,
493
00:21:20.700 --> 00:21:22.619
part of just the ethics. So I would say this
494
00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:25.630
would happen six months ago to a year ago. This
495
00:21:25.690 --> 00:21:28.230
could be the final domino that kicks off the entire vote.
496
00:21:28.269 --> 00:21:30.329
And we have over 60 votes in the Senate. But
497
00:21:30.349 --> 00:21:32.490
now the politics, it looks a little more nice here.
498
00:21:33.049 --> 00:21:35.549
Yeah, with the backdrop of the midterm elections right around
499
00:21:35.589 --> 00:21:37.630
the corner, right? It's going to get kind of nasty.
500
00:21:38.359 --> 00:21:39.140
Yeah, unfortunately.
501
00:21:39.180 --> 00:21:42.119
So we're 50 plus days out from the election. So
502
00:21:42.140 --> 00:21:45.119
that's the talk of the town, D.C. That's how the
503
00:21:45.299 --> 00:21:48.529
city shuts down. But overall, we're still moving forward here.
504
00:21:48.569 --> 00:21:50.740
Negotiations are still happening and clarity is still going to vote.
505
00:21:51.569 --> 00:21:55.269
So to recap, just so everybody knows what's going to
506
00:21:55.289 --> 00:21:58.569
happen next. So we got the culture vote, which is
507
00:21:58.650 --> 00:22:02.170
the vote to allow the actual vote on the Senate
508
00:22:02.190 --> 00:22:04.950
floor for the bill. That has to happen. But let's
509
00:22:04.970 --> 00:22:07.289
say it doesn't happen. You mentioned the bill is not dead.
510
00:22:07.619 --> 00:22:10.150
You mentioned there's an opportunity for this to happen in
511
00:22:10.490 --> 00:22:12.430
November or October and then also December?
512
00:22:13.230 --> 00:22:15.970
So yeah, so for, um, so again, they'll reach 60
513
00:22:15.970 --> 00:22:19.509
for cloture, um, then done no amendments debates, no final
514
00:22:19.549 --> 00:22:22.339
passage debate, like, okay, we didn't get 60, whatever. And again,
515
00:22:22.400 --> 00:22:24.920
there's a, there's a lot of examples of where Sanders,
516
00:22:24.960 --> 00:22:27.079
including the genius act, they'll vote for cloture.
517
00:22:27.119 --> 00:22:28.220
They'll vote to move a bill.
518
00:22:28.259 --> 00:22:30.140
They don't fully like, or they're not a hundred percent
519
00:22:30.180 --> 00:22:32.819
behind with the hope of like, Hey, I want more
520
00:22:32.859 --> 00:22:35.000
leverage in amendment debates, or I want to see if
521
00:22:35.059 --> 00:22:36.920
my amendment gets adopted, you got my votes.
522
00:22:37.059 --> 00:22:39.359
So, uh, so that's shocking happens back and forth.
523
00:22:39.380 --> 00:22:41.809
So just because someone is saying I'm against clarity or,
524
00:22:42.319 --> 00:22:44.670
I'm not a hundred percent because of ethics. They could
525
00:22:45.029 --> 00:22:47.930
hypothetically still vote for cloture. So like the realm of
526
00:22:47.950 --> 00:22:50.930
cloture vote being 60 is higher than final passage at
527
00:22:50.950 --> 00:22:53.490
this current moment. Uh, so if we don't reach cloture,
528
00:22:53.829 --> 00:22:56.910
everyone kind of digs in, it becomes partisan. Then, uh,
529
00:22:58.000 --> 00:23:00.640
it'll be pretty much kicked off for September. Um, it'll
530
00:23:00.660 --> 00:23:02.900
be kicked off for October because all the folks are
531
00:23:02.960 --> 00:23:04.960
campaigning in the districts. Uh, and then we got a
532
00:23:04.980 --> 00:23:07.940
couple of weeks, November and December, uh, And there's a
533
00:23:08.079 --> 00:23:10.039
lot of priorities sitting in the Senate right now. So
534
00:23:10.539 --> 00:23:12.789
some folks try to do like a lame duck package
535
00:23:12.829 --> 00:23:14.609
of sorts. So they combine a bunch of bills into
536
00:23:14.750 --> 00:23:15.970
one big bill and say, you know, we don't have
537
00:23:16.009 --> 00:23:16.269
time to.
538
00:23:16.269 --> 00:23:16.990
Do all these bills.
539
00:23:17.009 --> 00:23:19.390
We're going to pass it out as is in this
540
00:23:19.430 --> 00:23:21.700
big package. Or maybe we'll take some elements of the
541
00:23:21.720 --> 00:23:23.880
Clarity Act and put it into another bill. So there's
542
00:23:23.920 --> 00:23:26.289
a lot of like, you know, Conjuring into such that
543
00:23:26.309 --> 00:23:28.430
you could do to try to get some elements of
544
00:23:28.450 --> 00:23:31.269
the Clarity Act back through in a lame duck when
545
00:23:31.309 --> 00:23:33.869
hopefully the politics have kind of dissipated and then we
546
00:23:33.890 --> 00:23:36.049
at least know what the next election or next Congress is.
547
00:23:36.029 --> 00:23:36.549
Going to look like.
548
00:23:37.769 --> 00:23:40.549
So that's why I'm still holding out 10% chance. There
549
00:23:40.650 --> 00:23:44.269
is a world where that happens. But I'll end on
550
00:23:44.289 --> 00:23:46.710
this point. There's a lot of other competing priorities. Not
551
00:23:46.769 --> 00:23:49.289
a fact also, we're still in war with Iran. The
552
00:23:49.410 --> 00:23:52.430
NIL bill and a few other government funding stuff, that's
553
00:23:52.450 --> 00:23:55.019
going to take up a lot of time. So they
554
00:23:55.039 --> 00:23:56.519
are not going to be going forward with the clarity
555
00:23:56.539 --> 00:23:58.740
in November and December unless they know for a fact
556
00:23:58.859 --> 00:24:01.099
that A, it's worth it, B, the votes are there,
557
00:24:01.119 --> 00:24:03.009
and C, it's not going to take too much time.
558
00:24:03.400 --> 00:24:05.829
And that's where folks at the banks are going to say, no,
559
00:24:06.509 --> 00:24:07.990
it's going to take a lot of time, actually. So
560
00:24:08.009 --> 00:24:10.349
you're going to burn a whole two, three really important weeks.
561
00:24:10.589 --> 00:24:12.890
Don't even touch it. Touch it next year when the
562
00:24:12.930 --> 00:24:15.369
banks will know very, very well that next year is
563
00:24:15.430 --> 00:24:18.390
not on the table. So we'll see what happens, see
564
00:24:18.410 --> 00:24:21.569
what the outside groups are saying, but we will hopefully
565
00:24:21.609 --> 00:24:22.529
have some light at the end of the tunnel in
566
00:24:22.549 --> 00:24:25.420
November and December. But No, transparently, it's tough.
567
00:24:26.500 --> 00:24:30.619
Is there any chance that the Democrats politically are going
568
00:24:30.640 --> 00:24:33.599
to say, you know what, let's stall this until after
569
00:24:33.619 --> 00:24:36.730
the election? In their world, right, we don't want to
570
00:24:36.769 --> 00:24:40.029
give President Trump whatever win, which I think is absolutely
571
00:24:40.230 --> 00:24:43.309
asinine because people are not really– the average Joe and
572
00:24:43.329 --> 00:24:45.750
Jay are not concerned about crypto right now. They're concerned
573
00:24:45.769 --> 00:24:47.670
about the economy, the war, and all these different things.
574
00:24:48.170 --> 00:24:52.259
But nevertheless, that they say, you know what, we want
575
00:24:52.299 --> 00:24:54.990
to be the ones– we'll get our amendments in, but
576
00:24:55.069 --> 00:24:58.410
we're going to take credit for passing this. That there's
577
00:24:58.450 --> 00:25:00.849
some hope that this could happen in 2027 because they're saying,
578
00:25:01.410 --> 00:25:02.069
we want the credit.
579
00:25:03.329 --> 00:25:04.390
That happens a lot, actually.
580
00:25:04.430 --> 00:25:08.130
I mean, it almost happened two years ago with like
581
00:25:08.150 --> 00:25:09.789
some version of the Clarity Act. It was 521 at
582
00:25:09.809 --> 00:25:13.619
the time, last Congress. But there was a push saying like, hey,
583
00:25:13.920 --> 00:25:15.200
we should just try to get this done lame duck
584
00:25:15.220 --> 00:25:17.339
before Donald Trump takes over. And some of the Democrats
585
00:25:17.619 --> 00:25:19.559
kind of came to us and turned around saying, we
586
00:25:19.579 --> 00:25:20.460
don't think you're gonna get a better deal.
587
00:25:20.500 --> 00:25:22.519
And Donald Trump comes into office, work with us now.
588
00:25:22.539 --> 00:25:24.099
And it's like, well, we have two months here.
589
00:25:24.279 --> 00:25:26.799
And it turns out one of the lead folks in
590
00:25:26.839 --> 00:25:29.019
this conversation was Sherry Brown and he lost his race.
591
00:25:29.059 --> 00:25:31.220
So he was not keen to help us out. But
592
00:25:31.240 --> 00:25:32.809
there were other Democrats who came to us saying like,
593
00:25:32.849 --> 00:25:34.710
we think this is the time to move before Donald
594
00:25:34.730 --> 00:25:36.470
Trump takes over. What can we do to help you
595
00:25:36.490 --> 00:25:40.630
guys out? And again, that didn't lead to anything, unfortunately. However,
596
00:25:41.289 --> 00:25:43.089
That play happens a lot. It happens all the time
597
00:25:43.109 --> 00:25:45.190
in politics, especially when it's something that's bipartisan.
598
00:25:45.230 --> 00:25:47.670
It's saying like, hey, we'll get to it next year.
599
00:25:47.839 --> 00:25:48.490
It's bipartisan.
600
00:25:48.559 --> 00:25:51.000
It's got two-thirds of the House support already. So this
601
00:25:51.019 --> 00:25:53.720
has got a pretty good chance. The caveat, though, is
602
00:25:53.759 --> 00:25:57.180
two people, or actually three. So it's Maxine Waters, who's
603
00:25:57.200 --> 00:26:00.079
going to be leading the Financial Services Committee, likely. There
604
00:26:00.099 --> 00:26:02.910
was an interesting development. Sean Kasten from Illinois, who's a
605
00:26:02.930 --> 00:26:06.450
younger member, but he's moving up the ranks and notoriously
606
00:26:06.490 --> 00:26:09.150
probably the most anti-DeFi member of Congress out there. He's
607
00:26:09.170 --> 00:26:12.779
sharp on his issue, but he is Very anti-DeFi, very
608
00:26:12.799 --> 00:26:15.680
much taking the talking points, trying to find that side.
609
00:26:15.869 --> 00:26:17.130
But he also is trying to make a play for
610
00:26:17.150 --> 00:26:17.549
that chair.
611
00:26:18.109 --> 00:26:20.369
And that chair, financial services is so important because they
612
00:26:20.390 --> 00:26:23.049
get to decide what bills move forward and what bills don't.
613
00:26:23.230 --> 00:26:26.750
And Clarity Act or 521, whatever market structure becomes, it
614
00:26:26.789 --> 00:26:28.250
has to get their approval to move forward.
615
00:26:28.289 --> 00:26:30.890
So if the leads don't like it, it ain't moving.
616
00:26:31.910 --> 00:26:34.180
Even if it has support of a lot of their colleagues,
617
00:26:34.339 --> 00:26:35.619
they're the ones who get to decide who has to
618
00:26:35.660 --> 00:26:37.339
vote or not. So the fact that they're both against
619
00:26:37.420 --> 00:26:40.140
it does not bode well for next year Congress if
620
00:26:40.160 --> 00:26:42.710
the Democrats take the House. The Democrats take the Senate,
621
00:26:43.309 --> 00:26:45.849
same issue, but it's Elizabeth Warren. And she has no
622
00:26:45.869 --> 00:26:49.210
desire to move any kind of bill whatsoever. Although now,
623
00:26:49.250 --> 00:26:52.490
more recently, she's saying she wants crypto legislation, which wasn't
624
00:26:52.509 --> 00:26:54.400
the case a couple years ago, even a year ago.
625
00:26:54.480 --> 00:26:56.480
But she's changed her tone a little bit.
626
00:26:56.559 --> 00:26:58.059
But by no means is she going to advance something
627
00:26:58.079 --> 00:26:59.500
like the Clarity Act.
628
00:26:59.579 --> 00:27:01.640
She's been very adamantly against it every step of the way.
629
00:27:01.720 --> 00:27:05.150
So... So that's the only unfortunate reason is that these
630
00:27:05.210 --> 00:27:08.509
two Democrats in power, even if most of the conference
631
00:27:08.710 --> 00:27:10.309
is not aligned with them, they're the ones who get
632
00:27:10.329 --> 00:27:12.230
to decide what moves forward or not. And right now,
633
00:27:13.069 --> 00:27:14.950
they don't see any light to move this forward next
634
00:27:14.970 --> 00:27:17.380
two years. That can change, but does not seem likely.
635
00:27:18.299 --> 00:27:21.859
Final item, since we're on the topic of the House,
636
00:27:22.519 --> 00:27:25.640
there was talks of the sessions being cut at the
637
00:27:25.759 --> 00:27:29.480
end of this month. So let's say, Ron, ideal scenario,
638
00:27:29.799 --> 00:27:32.549
this thing makes it through the Senate. then it goes
639
00:27:32.589 --> 00:27:34.470
to the house is there any chance it can make
640
00:27:34.490 --> 00:27:37.750
it through the house or you think maxine waters plus
641
00:27:37.769 --> 00:27:40.579
the lack of session time well you know it won't
642
00:27:40.619 --> 00:27:41.569
get passed through.
643
00:27:41.390 --> 00:27:44.420
There um if we're talking for this year like so
644
00:27:44.440 --> 00:27:46.859
hypothetically yeah to your point they do get uh a
645
00:27:46.880 --> 00:27:49.299
win like next week or the week after clarity actually
646
00:27:49.420 --> 00:27:51.660
gets 60 votes out of the senate it still has
647
00:27:51.680 --> 00:27:53.400
to go back to the house to get a stamp
648
00:27:53.440 --> 00:27:55.839
of approval because they did make changes so the differences
649
00:27:55.900 --> 00:27:59.619
have to be reconciled so So far, the House leaders
650
00:27:59.640 --> 00:28:01.559
have said, and this is more the Republican side, they said,
651
00:28:02.500 --> 00:28:04.789
we don't see any reason to be against the Clarity Act,
652
00:28:05.230 --> 00:28:07.390
even with the changes now from the Senate. Of course,
653
00:28:07.529 --> 00:28:09.130
we've got to wait for the amendment process to come in.
654
00:28:09.150 --> 00:28:11.130
If there's a couple of poison pills in there, the
655
00:28:11.150 --> 00:28:13.019
House can definitely change their tone and say, you know, actually,
656
00:28:13.039 --> 00:28:16.240
we don't really like that prediction markets amendment or whatever,
657
00:28:16.259 --> 00:28:18.589
you know, maybe that's not going there. So we're going
658
00:28:18.609 --> 00:28:20.170
to be doing our own version and then we'll kick
659
00:28:20.210 --> 00:28:22.089
it back to the Senate to rubber stamp it. So
660
00:28:22.109 --> 00:28:25.880
that's where the amendment process gets really important because if
661
00:28:25.920 --> 00:28:27.900
they throw a poison pill or two in and at
662
00:28:27.920 --> 00:28:29.779
least a sense saying like, hey, look, we need this
663
00:28:29.819 --> 00:28:32.440
poison pill. If it means we get 60 votes, then
664
00:28:32.480 --> 00:28:34.029
it puts the house in a bind saying like, are
665
00:28:34.069 --> 00:28:36.490
you going to open this back up and make these changes? Again,
666
00:28:36.509 --> 00:28:38.849
whichever way the amendments go for one industry or another.
667
00:28:39.809 --> 00:28:42.789
But that is a very real scenario of causing some
668
00:28:42.970 --> 00:28:47.130
potential issues. But right now, that has not been seen
669
00:28:47.170 --> 00:28:49.789
as a case. But we'll know during the amendment process
670
00:28:49.849 --> 00:28:50.990
if we're going to have hurdles like that.
671
00:28:52.609 --> 00:28:56.420
Well, Ron, next week is going to be a very
672
00:28:57.079 --> 00:28:59.940
monumental week, maybe in a good and bad ways. But
673
00:29:00.480 --> 00:29:03.119
let's hope, fingers crossed, they can get this done. And
674
00:29:03.200 --> 00:29:04.799
I know you're going to be in D.C. trying to
675
00:29:04.839 --> 00:29:05.480
help get that done.
676
00:29:06.029 --> 00:29:06.589
It'll be fun.
677
00:29:07.089 --> 00:29:09.049
But yeah, I mean, my final takeaway, folks, is that
678
00:29:09.069 --> 00:29:11.349
you're going to hear a lot of narrative from folks
679
00:29:11.369 --> 00:29:15.250
in the opposition saying either A, ethics, or B, and
680
00:29:15.269 --> 00:29:16.049
then it's ethics.
681
00:29:16.430 --> 00:29:17.509
Ask them, what do you want in ethics?
682
00:29:17.549 --> 00:29:19.190
Because I guarantee you, it's going to be different than
683
00:29:19.230 --> 00:29:21.769
all the other Democrats saying they want ethics. And then two,
684
00:29:21.829 --> 00:29:24.339
I'd say, they're going to have pushback saying, well, we
685
00:29:24.380 --> 00:29:27.039
just got the bill. It came out yesterday. So we
686
00:29:27.059 --> 00:29:28.559
still need to adjust it. And the truth is, it's
687
00:29:28.579 --> 00:29:31.230
been out there for months, years, a year at this point.
688
00:29:31.230 --> 00:29:33.849
So like, It's a lame excuse. Every single office has
689
00:29:33.849 --> 00:29:36.509
been lobbied on this topic from you know, trade associations
690
00:29:36.549 --> 00:29:37.390
or individual companies.
691
00:29:37.910 --> 00:29:39.480
So they know that this bill is, they know it's
692
00:29:39.700 --> 00:29:42.539
mostly in there. And is it time to put up
693
00:29:42.559 --> 00:29:42.910
or shut up?
694
00:29:43.119 --> 00:29:44.880
And I'm looking forward to having them on the record,
695
00:29:45.119 --> 00:29:48.539
but I'm really scared about the politics really affecting this.
696
00:29:48.839 --> 00:29:49.680
And it shouldn't.
697
00:29:49.859 --> 00:29:52.859
Again, nothing gets two thirds of the House vote except
698
00:29:52.880 --> 00:29:55.079
for like naming a post office. So like, this is
699
00:29:55.160 --> 00:29:57.950
so rare for such a bipartisan bill to have such
700
00:29:58.809 --> 00:30:01.859
holdups and parsing hiccups at this stage in the Senate.
701
00:30:01.900 --> 00:30:04.299
So it's not impossible.
702
00:30:04.359 --> 00:30:07.160
But it's really uncommon and it's really frustrating. So let's
703
00:30:07.200 --> 00:30:10.049
hope cooler heads prevail next week.
704
00:30:10.750 --> 00:30:11.710
Absolutely. Well said.
705
00:30:12.069 --> 00:30:14.150
Well, Ron, I have a feeling we may have to
706
00:30:14.190 --> 00:30:17.069
talk next week, but let's see how it goes. Thank
707
00:30:17.089 --> 00:30:17.869
you so much, my friend.
708
00:30:18.410 --> 00:30:19.440
Anytime, man. Looking forward to it.