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Hello, and welcome to the Latino Americanist, a podcast brought to you by the Center of Latin American Studies at Cambridge University.
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My name is David Lehman, and this week I am very honored to receive Professor Leonardo Avritzer, Professor of Political Science at the University of Minas Gerais in Brazil.
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Leonardo has lived all his life in Belo Horizonte, but he also is very well known internationally and has also published extensively in English about various aspects of politics, both institutions and also about the question of participation or participatory politics.
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So, Leonardo, we have seen quite a transformation in Brazilian political life in the last six years or eight years because of the reign of Bolsonaro and now the new election in which his son is a candidate.
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And I wonder if you could explain to us how the Brazilian institutions have weathered the storms brought to them by this quite radical change that started in about 2018.
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Well, David, it's very good to be with you.
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And I'm very happy to participate in the podcast.
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Well, um, Bolsonaro, uh it's an earthquake in Brazilian politics.
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Not that we had a very wonderful, high-quality political system before Bolsonaro, but we had a system that worked uh relatively well given the previous Brazilian history.
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So we had three parties governed Brazil in between 1994 and 2018, and the three were partners in Brazilian democratization: PMDB, PSDB, and the Workers' Party.
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They were the parties of the transition or of the constitutional uh assembly, and they created a system uh that worked in several ways.
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It worked before because no one disassembled what the other did before.
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So, for instance, Cardozo stabilized the currency, introduced the real, halt inflation, and Lula after 2002 continued in this path.
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Um, we can also say that the Workers Party introduced several social policies, including Bosa Familia, that was very important.
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And again, uh when Serra ran against Dilma in 2010, he promised that he would keep the social, uh the important social policies introduced by the Workers' Party.
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And PMDB was a kind of strange broker of the system, but still a broker.
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In which sense?
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In the sense that it never elected a president, but in the presidential coalition system, the PMDB provided majority uh for the winners.
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So this was the system.
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Can I just ask you to clarify one or two things for our listeners?
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One is what is the Bolsa Familia and how why is this so important?
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Because you seem to say this is the social policy.
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And the second is what is a presidential coalition system.
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Yeah.
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Uh so let's start with the presidential coalition system, which is a system that maybe exists only in Brazil, but as party fragmentation is uh moving everywhere.
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Maybe we'll see uh the system in other places.
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But in Brazil, the president is elected with a majority of the votes, 50% plus one votes.
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Uh but it the Brazilian president since 1994 never had a majority in parliament.
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So he needs a coalition.
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And uh how he crafts this coalition, he crafts this coalition distributing cabinet portfolios to other parties, especially PMDB, but also other parties as the Brazilian system fragmented.
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And with that, uh majorities created.
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So both Cardozo, Fernando Cardozo, Brazilian president between 1994 and uh 2002, and Lula, president between 2003 and 2010, they could approve, they had the rates of approval of his of their legal initiatives in Congress that was similar to the approval rates of the British system.
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So close to 90% of their legal initiatives were approved in Congress, and this is the Presidential Coalition system.
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As to Bolsa Família, Bolsa Família is a compensatory policy that's very important in order to reduce the huge inequalities that exist in Brazil.
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The government gives, it's not an entitlement in the sense that you need to qualify for it, but still the government uh supplements the income of the poor families up to 600 AIs, which is uh about half of the minimum wage and approximately 100 US dollars.
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I was checking some numbers the other day, and in 2026, uh some almost 20 million families receive cash from the Bolsa Familia.
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Yeah.
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It's a cash transfer system.
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No pork barrel politics is involved.
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Uh you either qualify or you do not qualify.
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Mayors or local politicians do not have any influence on Bolsa Familia.
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It's a truly universal cash transfer system.
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We have some local color, I can hear some birds in the background.
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Yeah.
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So it's a Bolsonaro did did try to change it a bit.
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Well, Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro uh it's a politician that has just a few concerns.
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He has a moral agenda, and the moral agenda is the most important issue for him.
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So being against abortion, being against the adoption of children by gay couples, uh, this kind of agenda are the important agendas for Bolsonaro, and he wanted to mobilize this base.
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Bolsa Familia and uh Bolaro inherited it.
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He kept it uh with a very low payment, and in the last year of his administration, he increased the value of Bolsa Familia, but he did not uh uh in his budget proposal for 2023, which would be the year if he would be re-elected, he would need to pay for it.
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There was no forecast for Bolsa Familia in the 2023 budget.
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So it was clearly a sort of cash transfer electoral cycle, in which you pay for the poor to vote for you and then you leave them behind after that.
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This kind of uh politics.
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Yeah.
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But he he wasn't proposing to end it, he was it was just this, he he gave an extra which was unfunded.
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Yeah.
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So that's the Bolsa Familia.
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So then far, people say, and indeed from within, people say that somehow the Bolsonaro period was some sort of threat to Brazilian institutions.
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And of course, we have seen elsewhere that elected presidents can undermine political institutions quite sometimes quite fundamentally.
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So, what is it that he tried to do, and what was it that what was the resistance?
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Yeah, well, from day one, or even before that, still during the electoral period in uh 2018, Bolsonaro uh son made the remark: well, to close the Brazilian Supreme Court, you need just need a GIP.
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And uh a GIP, yeah, and two soldiers.
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You don't need more than that to close the Brazilian Supreme Court.
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He was dead wrong about that, because Brazilians, in fact, respect the court, and the court has a legitimacy among Brazilians.
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In addition to that, still in the early months of 2019, uh it came to the attention of many people in Brazil that uh there were attacks to the opposition, but also to Supreme Court justices, important politicians.
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And as people would try to see where these attacks uh in the in the internet or social networks were coming from, they identified the second floor of the presidential palace where an institution, quote unquote, called the hate cabinet, was established.
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The hate that's right, Gabinete do audio.
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Exactly.
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Yeah, hate cabinet, yes.
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Yes.
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Um and uh Bolsonaro created a professional structure to uh further polarize the country, attack center politicians, and the Brazilian Supreme Court.
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The Supreme Court, as a reaction to that, opened uh an inquiry uh that is called the Fake News Investigation.
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Yeah, and fake news investigation, which uh at that point um the member who was assigned to chair this investigation was the junior minister or the rookie of the Brazilian uh Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes, yeah, was just has just been nominated by Michel Temer.
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So he was in charge.
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And very rapidly he identified the source.
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And he and uh and the Brazilian federal police, uh, it's a judicial police that's very active and take orders directly from the Brazilian Supreme Court, which is not the American system.
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I don't know how it is the British system, but in the US you need to go through the Attorney General.
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But in Brazil you don't need to.
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So uh the federal police investigated and uh made several uh indictments out of that.
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This was the beginning of Bolsonaro's uh attack on democratic institutions, and he started to make personal attacks against Moraes and in September 7.
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September 7 is Independence Day in Brazil, September 7, 2021, he made a very strong speech against Moraes, saying, I'm not I'm no longer going to accept his orders.
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So this is the first point of Bolsonaro's attack against democracy.
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A second one, which is also very important, is Bolsonaro from the very beginning made criticisms of the electronic ballot.
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Brazil has a very sophisticated technological system for counting the votes much better than many uh advanced democracies, especially the US.
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Well, it's not clear that the US is an advanced democracy at this point.
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Uh, but still, the US counts votes on a decentralized way, Brazil counts votes on a centralized system, and uh despite the fact that we had uh more than 100 million electors, uh the electoral result comes out in a few hours.
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So Bolsonaro criticized this.
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He criticized the system, said the system was prone to hacking, which is not true, because the system is not connected.
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It's an intranet and it's not connected to the internet.
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Um also uh increased his attacks uh against the system as the Brazilian electoral court gave access to the system, which is a common procedure about the near before the election.
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Uh any party can check the system, can check the coding of the system in order to uh be sure that it works and it does not lead, uh mislead uh in relation to the results.
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So Bolsonaro made this attack, and in July 2022, a few months before the election, he called what we today call the ambassadors meeting.
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So he summoned um international ambassadors to the presidential palace in order to say that the system was not safe and that uh he was afraid that the elections would be reaped.
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Today he's even convicted for spending resources for summoning the ambassadors.
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So all this uh led to uh a comprehensive challenge of Brazilian political institutions.
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And did he have support from other parts of the I mean he wasn't alone in this, was he?
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He had support from people in the parliament, in the chamber, in the Senate, from the press.
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And uh there is uh also an informal institution that we call Central.
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And Central is kind of rentiers of the political system that goes from the extreme right to the center right.
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And Central was in charge of both chambers, the lower chamber and the Senate.
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Yeah.
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Central, which just means the big center.
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Yeah, the big center, yeah.
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And central was in charge.
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Central perhaps never agreed, also because the Brazilian presidential election elections are a comprehensive election.
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Uh all governors, uh between one-third and two-thirds of the senators, uh, all MPs, federal and state, they are all elected on the same day.
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So you challenge election, you challenge all deals.
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And of course, for Central, it made no sense to challenge uh its own uh uh election.
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So Bolsonaro was not alone, but he did not have a huge majority on his side as he did that.
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So so this um personality in Morais has become a very central figure, and some people might say that he has acquired a political um protagonism, shall we say.
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I mean, certainly to people uh to me and to people outside Brazil if the procedure that the Supreme Court can initiate um a an investigation is very unusual, but they can just do this on the basis of what they read in the papers, so to speak, on their own initiative.
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Well, not exactly.
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Yeah, well, um in Brazil, Ministério Público, the public prosecutor, is the initiator of all uh criminal investigations.
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Yeah.
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So this is the Brazilian law.
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But uh the statute of the Brazilian Supreme Court allows the court to initiate processes when it is attacked.
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And this is the foundation, the legal foundation of the fake news investigation.
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Right.
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Yeah, so it's not completely illegal, but uh, of course, it was an overstretching of the court uh legal initiative.
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The court did that to defend itself, and uh, we can say uh that this is a sort of defensive democracy device, because if the court did not do it, eventually Brazil could have ceased uh to be a democracy, yeah, because Bolsonaro would really uh disempower the court, and the court was very important to contain him just after the 2022 election.
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Yeah.
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So I should say to the readers also that in Brazilian political jargon, the word for fake news is fake news.
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It's a become part of the language in Brazil.
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So you don't think that um the protagonism of this particular in individual judge who has taken the lead in in several cases has um done any harm to the standing of the Supreme Court?
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Well, um it's difficult to say when you are in a situation where democracy is eroding itself uh from within, yeah, as we say, is the case of Brazil, the United States, and a few other countries, uh uh you have to face two issues.
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One is how can I save democracy?
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And uh, of course, you need to address this issue in legal terms.
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So uh Moraes went, uh took this road, and the road was at least semi-legal in a good sense of the word, because the statute of the Supreme Court, of the Constitution of the Supreme Court allowed it.
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Uh, but in addition to that, uh it was an overstretching of the court uh prerogatives.
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Um but I ask you if the US Supreme Court would be using the same kind of devices and forbidding some of the abuses of Donald Trump, would the US today be less or more democratic?
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Well, I don't know because it hasn't happened yet.
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I mean, I I'm not okay.
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I'm not saying I hope it will happen soon.
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Yes.
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Yes.
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So, and then well, then Lula wins the election.
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Um still, though, one has to say that it wasn't by a massive majority.
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I mean, and if it hadn't been for Lula, do you think that Bolsonaro might have won the election in 2022?
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Well, Bolsonaro created his uh or managed his administration in order to enlarge his political basis.
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So he did many, many things up to the pandemic that uh would give uh enormous advantage to himself and his uh political group.
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In addition to that, uh Bolsonaro uh was popular in the sense that he did a sort of populist policy that was uh very uh well accepted by the Brazilian poor.
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He would come to the major cities to to make a motorcycle parade uh with his supporters, something that we called motossiatas.
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Mussolini also liked to do that.
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Yeah.
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Uh so and people would see themselves contemplated.
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Bolsonaro had built up various constituencies during his presidency, and despite the disaster of COVID, which doesn't seem to have harmed him as much as you would have thought.
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Yeah.
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Um well um he created new constituencies and made important advances towards the poor.
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He allowed the guys who uh received Increase in Bolsa familiar's value to indept themselves in public value.
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So Bolsonaro put into the economy something close to one percent of the Brazilian GNP in the 90 days before the election.
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That's a lot.
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Yeah, it's a lot.
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This made a difference.
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These were people who who were who were very poor who were receiving uh 600 AIs from Alta Familia and they were able to go to the bank and borrow m borrow against that.
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My God.
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So that that th that's why he how he maintained uh you know a fairly high percentage of the vote.
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So and uh of course the other element which people talk about a lot is the evangelical vote, which seems to go two-thirds to to Bolsonaro, no?
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Yeah, the evangelical vote was also very important because you you need to see that uh the increase in the political influence of the new Pentecostal politicians of Juma Hussein uh did not produce a political decadent.
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As a matter of fact, uh Jim Hassan himself, the important bishop of the universal church.
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He broke with Juma ten days before the impeachment.
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So um the new Pentecostals were almost evenly divided to change after the impeachment and after today.
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Uh there is a difference of almost 20 points in evangelical support for Bolsonaro and Lula.
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So this was also very important.
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Where Bolsonaro did not fare well, he did not fare well.
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Uh in the Brazilian Northeast, among women and in large cities of the Brazilian Southeast, where he was losing support because of COVID, for instance.
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Lula won in the city of Sao Paulo, though uh loss in the state of Sao Paulo.
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The difference of votes in the state of Sao Paulo between Haddad who ran in 2018 and Lula.
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Uh Lula decreased this difference in almost four million votes.
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In regard to the internal Brazilian policies, Brazil has been very active and really resisted the attempts and the pressures of the United States uh to bring Brazil to its knees through taxes and international tariffs.
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Uh so Brazil resisted, uh received um exemptions, the US uh went back in regard to the imposition of tariffs in Brazil.
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Right now uh the tariffs are back, but Brazil is still negotiating.
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There are negotiations that will happen today uh with uh between Brazil and the US in this regard, and Brazil in this sense is doing uh at least as well as Canada and China, in the sense of uh telling the United States administration that it's not going to get its way without negotiation, negotiating uh uh with fair terms uh with the country.
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So in this regard, I think that the Lula's administration did very well despite the fact that there is this enormous imbalance of power between the United States uh and Brazil.
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Uh so uh I think uh that will uh the game is still being played.
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Uh we cannot say that the US will get its way in relation to Latin America.
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Even Claudia Scheinbaum, in my view, she resisted on key issues in regard to the US that she needed uh to resist.
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But we cannot make a coalition with Malay or with Keiko Fujimori.
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Though it's important to point out that Keiko made important openings in regard to the Lula's administration just after her inauguration, and the bilateral relations between Peru and Brazil right now are not bad.
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So Brazil in relation to the other South American countries is trying to solve the issue on uh bilateral um uh negotiations, and in regard to the US, it's not bending in the same way that other countries did because it has an economy that it's very calibrated in terms of its international relations.
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So the US is not uh does not represent a huge uh amount of the Brazilian exports, as a matter of fact, Brazilian exports are very balanced uh to both China, the European community and the US.
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And I would say that the US does not have the kind of leeway it thinks uh it has with Brazil.
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So uh uh during the first uh uh uh attractions between the Trump administration and Brazil, the US reviewed its position.
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Uh and I hope it will review again, despite the fact that it's not happy with the administration, uh but the role of the Brazilian administration is not making Trump happy.
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No.
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Because you say Brazil's main uh partner for commodities trade is China, isn't it?
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Not not America.
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It's very easy.
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Uh so China it it's uh the largest partner.
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Um the US, as a matter of fact, Brazilian exports to the US uh are decreasing in quantity and in value because uh this is the result of the tariffs.
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Yeah.
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Um if the situation continues as it is, most likely there there will emerge uh uh a second and a third partner, and Brazil will diversify its exports because Brazilian meat exports, for instance, are uh are sick in in the Middle East, for instance, Saudi Arabia and other countries.
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Uh in Europe, there is some sort of protest among especially French uh uh farmers, but still Brazil is increasing uh its agricultural exports also to the European community.
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So I don't think that the US has the kind of leverage with Brazil that it thinks uh it has.
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Yeah.
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So finally, uh does Brazil uh do Brazil do Brazilian diplomats, shall we say, not politicians, because I don't think they're particularly uh interested in the subject.
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Do Brazilian diplomats have any uh idea of whether uh whether they should have a role uh in Venezuela or do they have uh relation relationships with the Venezuelan government?
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Well the problem is that the Maduro's administration was on very bad terms with Brazil when he was captured uh uh early this January.
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So Brazil did not recognize the election result and uh it should not have, because uh there were indications of massive fraud uh which does not justify of course uh the US invasion.
00:30:07.680 --> 00:30:13.920
But as a matter of fact, uh Brazil was not on very good terms uh with Maduro.
00:30:14.559 --> 00:30:37.119
Um so um the Brazilian position is uh we are, of course, for the full self-determination of Venezuela uh in uh all its meanings, which means that the Venezuelan oil should belong to Venezuela in addition to its political sovereignty.
00:30:37.519 --> 00:30:55.759
The problem is what Brazil can do right now, and we have to point out that it's not just a Brazilian problem, the Europeans also did not protest very much uh in the same way as the Chinese and the Russians, because we are in a different world right now in relation to these issues.
00:30:56.000 --> 00:31:08.079
So Brazil is doing exactly in relation to Venezuela or uh exactly the same that all the other countries uh in the international community are doing.
00:31:08.960 --> 00:31:09.359
Yeah.
00:31:09.759 --> 00:31:31.680
I mean I did feel that for many years uh Brazil and other Latin American countries were very uh unwilling to take a position wh while Maduro and indeed Chavez before him were clearly breaking the rules on in a systematic and ever ever more violent basis uh way.
00:31:32.240 --> 00:31:40.799
But there was very little um very little will to become involved.
00:31:41.279 --> 00:31:51.359
And that of course is to do with the Latin American what you've just described, you know, the Latin American um respect for respect for sovereignty.
00:31:53.519 --> 00:32:12.079
As we are speaking, the Brazilian media are talking about the Brazilian Supreme Court finding itself in the midst of the worst crisis since the constitution of 1988, and maybe even since long before that.
00:32:12.640 --> 00:32:24.559
This has to do with a case surrounding a bank called the Banco Master, which has then had various repercussions over the last six months or so.
00:32:24.799 --> 00:32:29.279
So, Leo, can you please explain to us what this is all about?
00:32:30.319 --> 00:32:54.160
Yes, um well, Banco Master, uh you need to understand that Brazil has a very monopolized financial system um that has been deregulated, uh, but uh still it's concept, most of the activity, financial activities and assets are concentrated in less than a dozen banks.
00:32:54.559 --> 00:33:15.759
Um Banco Master is a bank that emerged through deregulation here in Belo Horizonte with very strong links with Igreja Batista da Lagoinha, uh which is a new Pentecostal church uh in the city, but also very important neo-pentecostal church uh in Brazil as a whole.
00:33:16.000 --> 00:33:32.799
Banco Master grew offering uh very high interest rates uh for investors, and um these investors uh these interest rates were not sustainable.
00:33:32.960 --> 00:33:49.039
So what Master did uh it wanted funds from a guarantor uh institution that exists in Brazil, such as the FDIC in the United States, that is Fundo Garantidor de Crecio.
00:33:49.759 --> 00:34:33.760
And this is the federal this is the deposit insurance, it's a deposit insurance, but most of its money are paid by the banks, so eventually the largest Brazilian banks uh challenged the central bank about how much money it was putting into Master, and in order to circumvent the central bank regulation and the other banks, Master went to the political system and um um got on its side very important politicians and very important Supreme Court uh justices.
00:34:34.159 --> 00:34:57.039
So for you to understand, David, Master is very different from Lava Jato and uh Men Salão, not only because Master is clearly what we say in Brazil, a banco de direita, well, very strong links with the Brazilian rights and Bolsonaro's, but also because it's not a systemic crisis.
00:34:57.199 --> 00:35:04.960
It's not a crisis that involves the whole financial system, the whole political system, the whole judicial system.
00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:27.360
What master did is it paid outrageous amounts of money to a few people, and among these people we see at least one Brazilian Supreme Court Justice, very important one, Alexandre de Moraes, and also uh very important leaderships of the Central.
00:35:27.679 --> 00:35:31.280
I think we already talked about Central, yeah, Steven Gueira.
00:35:31.840 --> 00:35:39.519
We've also we've also heard of Moraes previously as it with his protagonism in the fake news case.
00:35:39.920 --> 00:35:40.559
Yes.
00:35:40.880 --> 00:36:03.360
Um Moraes had the protagonism in the fake news case and containing Bolsonaro, um in uh running uh the conviction of those who uh invaded the Tripower Square on January 8th, 2023.
00:36:03.599 --> 00:36:14.960
So a very powerful and Supreme uh Supreme Court justice, but through his wife law office, he received tens of millions of dollars.
00:36:15.280 --> 00:36:20.960
His wife, his wife, is his wife's legal of his wife's law, law practice.
00:36:21.280 --> 00:36:22.880
Yes, in Brazilia.
00:36:23.039 --> 00:36:25.519
And this, I would say, she's not the only one.
00:36:25.599 --> 00:36:56.800
It's very common among Supreme Court justices, but the case involves morais because it involves uh a felony that in Brazil we called advocacia administrativa, which is when an officer a public officer uh advocates privately uh or lobbies privately for uh uh some particular interest.
00:36:57.119 --> 00:37:01.360
So um it's different from Lava Jato, but it's very important.
00:37:02.480 --> 00:37:22.719
And because Bolsonaro was convicted by Moraes and by the Supreme Court, and because he cannot run, the Brazilian right wants to remove uh Moraes from his post or impeach Moraes uh through this scandal.
00:37:22.880 --> 00:37:23.760
What happens?
00:37:24.000 --> 00:37:32.559
Bolsonaro indicated uh Supreme Court justice, he indicated two, but one of them is neo-Pentecostal.
00:37:32.800 --> 00:37:42.800
In the words of Bolsonaro, he would indicate someone terriblemente evangelical, these uh these were the words he used.
00:37:42.960 --> 00:38:21.599
And Mendoza in the last week put fire on the Brazilian Supreme Court by first releasing, most likely illegally, messages between uh the president of uh the bank, Daniel Rojado, and Moraes, and second, uh because the Brazil the Brazilian Federal Police uh objected to some of his actions, he removed the president of the federal police, which is completely unconstitutional and illegal, and this was just restored this morning.
00:38:21.920 --> 00:38:36.159
But at this point, we have a public uh fight among Supreme Court justices that might uh influence or most certainly will influence the election.
00:38:36.320 --> 00:38:50.159
Um, the Brazilian Supreme Court at this point has a very weak president, it's a rotation position in Brazil, uh, it's a very weak justice, and he cannot stand against both of them.
00:38:50.480 --> 00:39:08.639
Um and we have um a guerra de liminares, a war of injunctions, uh, because the Brazilian Supreme Court is both constitutional court but also the top level uh of appeal uh for normal cases.
00:39:09.199 --> 00:39:16.159
So all the time we see injunctions, which is something very uncommon in constitutional courts.
00:39:16.320 --> 00:39:22.880
So at this point, um this war might involve the other two powers.
00:39:23.119 --> 00:39:44.320
One because Mendonça yesterday interfered in the executive branch, also because Mendonça is investigating the president of the Senate, which is the House that oversees actions of the uh Brazilian Supreme Court justices.
00:39:44.719 --> 00:39:51.760
So we can reach Election Day in a generalized institutional crisis.
00:39:51.920 --> 00:39:54.320
This is a real possibility right now.
00:39:55.360 --> 00:40:01.280
You might reach election day with a crisis between the Senate and the Supreme Court.
00:40:02.159 --> 00:40:03.760
And the executive branch.
00:40:04.079 --> 00:40:04.960
And all three.
00:40:06.320 --> 00:40:08.480
Between the three, yeah, among the three.
00:40:08.880 --> 00:40:13.760
Why is Mendonsa investigating the president of the Supreme Court?
00:40:15.039 --> 00:40:20.400
No, he's not investigating the president of the Supreme Court, he's investigating Moraes.
00:40:20.559 --> 00:40:21.039
That's right.
00:40:21.199 --> 00:40:35.840
And he's in Moraes is not the president of the court, but in the rotation system, uh the forecast is he's going to assume the presidency uh late next year.
00:40:36.239 --> 00:40:43.840
But he is the strongest justice right now, though his legitimacy is decreasing.
00:40:44.079 --> 00:40:52.960
So Mendoza is investigating him because he changed he exchanged messages uh with the president of the master bank.
00:40:53.440 --> 00:40:58.880
So because he's yeah, he he was investigating also the president of the Senate.
00:40:59.679 --> 00:41:09.199
He's uh he's investigating the president of the Senate because he's also involved in the master scandal.
00:41:09.360 --> 00:41:10.480
Why is it?
00:41:10.719 --> 00:41:33.039
Because he's from a state of the north of Brazil called Amapa, and uh the pension fund of public employees in Amapa put money into the master bank, and the fund lost a lot of money, and the person who took the decision is personally linked to Davi of Columbria.
00:41:33.360 --> 00:41:35.280
The president of the Senate, I see.
00:41:35.519 --> 00:41:41.920
So I mean, how is this conceivable that one judge can investigate another?
00:41:42.719 --> 00:41:44.480
It's not conceivable.
00:41:44.800 --> 00:42:11.199
Uh, according to the constitution of the Brazilian Supreme Court, he needs the authorization uh both from the president of the court and from the pla uh the plenarium, the full uh members' uh chamber, and he evaded that and sent it to public opinion and to the press.
00:42:11.440 --> 00:42:23.679
The problem is right now, Brazilians and the Brazilian press, at least the large newspapers and global network, what they really want to know is did he receive the money?
00:42:24.800 --> 00:42:26.079
Is he guilty?
00:42:26.320 --> 00:42:45.039
We cannot in Brazil, given the low complex low uh education of our electorate, conceive that the electorate would understand that this is procedurally unfeasible or illegal.
00:42:45.280 --> 00:42:48.880
Um what people want is Moraes to explain himself.
00:42:49.119 --> 00:43:14.800
But in this process, Mendonza went so far that yesterday, monitoring social networks, some Brazilian uh monitoring institutions saw that Moraes was more uh Mendonza was more criticized in in uh the social media than had his uh actions approved.
00:43:15.039 --> 00:43:39.280
So one possible solution is uh not to impeach the two because this is going to take time, but at least to remove them from the actions that they are taking or from the Banco Master uh scandal uh in order for to allow the court to resume some sort of normality.
00:43:39.840 --> 00:43:48.880
So the Banco Master, meanwhile, I mean it attempted to take over a bank in Braz in Brasilia, didn't it?
00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:54.880
And it was not to take over, it's a it's a second parallel scandal.
00:43:55.039 --> 00:43:59.760
So Brazil had a bank called BRB, and BRB is a state.
00:44:00.400 --> 00:44:10.239
Bank of Brazilia popular among public employees that had nothing to do with the master scandal.
00:44:10.320 --> 00:44:29.199
But at this at one point, because Daniel Vojcaro, the bank president, is very well connected with the central, the governor of the Federal District, Ibanez Rocha, wanted his bank to help or to assume master.
00:44:29.519 --> 00:44:36.239
In the end, the bank lost$2 billion and did not solve the problem.
00:44:36.719 --> 00:44:42.880
So right now, uh this is also influencing the election in Brazilia.
00:44:43.119 --> 00:45:01.119
And the vice governor who was ranking first in the polls is now trailing a workers' party candidate who criticized her for the actions of both the former governor and the president of the BRB.
00:45:01.519 --> 00:45:05.599
So this is in the election for the governor of Brasilia.
00:45:06.000 --> 00:45:06.400
Yes.
00:45:06.639 --> 00:45:07.039
I see.
00:45:07.920 --> 00:45:09.679
The federal district, yeah.
00:45:10.079 --> 00:45:20.719
So finally, um you you use this expression one judge you say is weak, another judge is strong.
00:45:21.840 --> 00:45:37.280
And I mean we can see that Mohais has been very prominent in the media and has indeed got his way on in the in his um com in his um the trials of Bolsonaro.
00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:42.480
But um what do you really mean by a judge being strong or weak?
00:45:44.079 --> 00:45:52.320
Well, um the Brazilian Supreme Court is so politicized that some judges have the upper hand against others.
00:45:52.480 --> 00:46:09.760
For instance, uh Jomar Mendes was very strong during the Duma's administration, could even block uh her nomination of Lula for Chief of Staff in early 2015.
00:46:10.559 --> 00:46:20.239
Um Alexandre Mendes, who used to be a rookie and was nominated by Michel Temer, uh became a very strong judge.
00:46:20.320 --> 00:46:24.239
And when you are a strong judge, you do things.
00:46:24.480 --> 00:46:35.280
For instance, you indict people, you interrupt uh actions uh of the executive branch.
00:46:35.440 --> 00:46:43.519
All this, in my view, is very wrong because the Supreme Court cannot assume prerogatives of the other branches.
00:46:43.599 --> 00:46:46.800
But in Brazil, if you are a strong judge, you can.
00:46:47.039 --> 00:46:57.760
And this is exactly what Mendonça tried to do yesterday, uh September 8th, when he removed the president of federal police.
00:46:58.000 --> 00:47:07.519
Federal police is an executive branch institution, and Lula has full authority, and no one can remove without due process.
00:47:07.920 --> 00:47:17.119
And uh removing the president of the federal police through an injunction is absolutely inconstitutional and illegal.
00:47:17.360 --> 00:47:19.760
So Mendoza tried to do that.
00:47:20.320 --> 00:47:28.000
And as he tried, he may uh diminish his influence in the court.
00:47:28.320 --> 00:47:36.880
Eventually, uh the full plenum will vote on that, and most likely he'll lose.
00:47:37.280 --> 00:47:42.239
So uh this is what a strong judge means.
00:47:42.400 --> 00:47:52.480
And a weak judge is a judge who does not have very much influence um with other justices.
00:47:53.119 --> 00:48:09.280
Um and right now, the weakest of the j among the justices is the president of the Brazilian Supreme Court, which is not good, and we'll see how this is going to evolve during the next few weeks.
00:48:09.599 --> 00:48:11.280
Well, this is really quite serious.
00:48:11.440 --> 00:48:21.760
I notice also that the polls which looked like giving favor to Lula are now leveling up between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.
00:48:22.400 --> 00:48:26.400
Well, this is a very short-run uh indicator.
00:48:26.719 --> 00:48:39.119
Uh so most likely it's because uh of the revelations uh that have been made against Moraes, but now we have revelations against Mendonza.
00:48:39.280 --> 00:48:46.079
And the fact of the matter is Lula is not involved with the Master Bank, but Flavio Bolsonaro is.
00:48:46.559 --> 00:49:07.039
So in the end, that is why they need to control the federal police, uh, or the bolsonaristas need to control the federal police, because most likely the upper hand on who is more involved is going to be decided through revelations of the Brazilian Federal Police.
00:49:07.440 --> 00:49:08.159
Very interesting.
00:49:08.320 --> 00:49:30.480
One should remember that the owner of the Banco Master uh offered to fund a film about um Jair Bolsonaro, and the son was raising what you said was enormo enormous sums of money for this, well in excess of what one might need for a film of that kind.
00:49:31.679 --> 00:49:45.840
Yes, and most likely the the extra money, though it's still not clear, but most likely the extra money is for funding extreme right activities against Brazil in the United States.
00:49:46.159 --> 00:49:46.559
Uh-huh.
00:49:47.840 --> 00:49:48.400
I see.
00:49:48.639 --> 00:50:09.119
And finally, I want to tell our listeners or remind our listeners that we have another podcast which was already published with Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos, which was also about the subject of the politicization of the judiciary or the judicialization of politics much more broadly in Latin America.
00:50:09.519 --> 00:50:13.840
So we have a theme there which is already in two of our podcasts.
00:50:15.679 --> 00:50:22.159
So thank you very much, Leo, for this extra, which we will add to the conversation we already had.
00:50:23.360 --> 00:50:24.639
Thank you, David.
00:50:25.440 --> 00:50:26.320
Such a pleasure.
00:50:27.360 --> 00:50:29.440
Thank you for listening to the Latin Americanist.
00:50:29.679 --> 00:50:39.599
If you enjoyed this episode, feel free to share it, and we'll be back soon with more insights, more interesting people, stories, and voices from across the region and beyond.
00:50:39.840 --> 00:50:43.760
Until then, stay curious and keep the conversation going.
00:00:01.919 --> 00:00:11.119
Hello, and welcome to the Latino Americanist, a podcast brought to you by the Center of Latin American Studies at Cambridge University.
00:00:11.359 --> 00:00:24.079
My name is David Lehman, and this week I am very honored to receive Professor Leonardo Avritzer, Professor of Political Science at the University of Minas Gerais in Brazil.
00:00:24.320 --> 00:00:42.159
Leonardo has lived all his life in Belo Horizonte, but he also is very well known internationally and has also published extensively in English about various aspects of politics, both institutions and also about the question of participation or participatory politics.
00:00:42.560 --> 00:00:58.880
So, Leonardo, we have seen quite a transformation in Brazilian political life in the last six years or eight years because of the reign of Bolsonaro and now the new election in which his son is a candidate.
00:00:59.200 --> 00:01:12.400
And I wonder if you could explain to us how the Brazilian institutions have weathered the storms brought to them by this quite radical change that started in about 2018.
00:01:13.040 --> 00:01:16.079
Well, David, it's very good to be with you.
00:01:16.560 --> 00:01:20.799
And I'm very happy to participate in the podcast.
00:01:21.359 --> 00:01:28.000
Well, um, Bolsonaro, uh it's an earthquake in Brazilian politics.
00:01:28.159 --> 00:01:43.840
Not that we had a very wonderful, high-quality political system before Bolsonaro, but we had a system that worked uh relatively well given the previous Brazilian history.
00:01:44.159 --> 00:02:02.560
So we had three parties governed Brazil in between 1994 and 2018, and the three were partners in Brazilian democratization: PMDB, PSDB, and the Workers' Party.
00:02:02.879 --> 00:02:14.560
They were the parties of the transition or of the constitutional uh assembly, and they created a system uh that worked in several ways.
00:02:14.879 --> 00:02:21.280
It worked before because no one disassembled what the other did before.
00:02:21.520 --> 00:02:34.479
So, for instance, Cardozo stabilized the currency, introduced the real, halt inflation, and Lula after 2002 continued in this path.
00:02:34.879 --> 00:02:44.800
Um, we can also say that the Workers Party introduced several social policies, including Bosa Familia, that was very important.
00:02:45.199 --> 00:02:58.960
And again, uh when Serra ran against Dilma in 2010, he promised that he would keep the social, uh the important social policies introduced by the Workers' Party.
00:02:59.120 --> 00:03:05.120
And PMDB was a kind of strange broker of the system, but still a broker.
00:03:05.280 --> 00:03:06.400
In which sense?
00:03:06.639 --> 00:03:20.000
In the sense that it never elected a president, but in the presidential coalition system, the PMDB provided majority uh for the winners.
00:03:20.159 --> 00:03:21.439
So this was the system.
00:03:21.840 --> 00:03:25.919
Can I just ask you to clarify one or two things for our listeners?
00:03:26.159 --> 00:03:30.319
One is what is the Bolsa Familia and how why is this so important?
00:03:30.479 --> 00:03:34.159
Because you seem to say this is the social policy.
00:03:34.479 --> 00:03:39.120
And the second is what is a presidential coalition system.
00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:40.560
Yeah.
00:03:40.800 --> 00:03:54.560
Uh so let's start with the presidential coalition system, which is a system that maybe exists only in Brazil, but as party fragmentation is uh moving everywhere.
00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:58.319
Maybe we'll see uh the system in other places.
00:03:58.560 --> 00:04:06.240
But in Brazil, the president is elected with a majority of the votes, 50% plus one votes.
00:04:06.479 --> 00:04:16.319
Uh but it the Brazilian president since 1994 never had a majority in parliament.
00:04:16.560 --> 00:04:18.639
So he needs a coalition.
00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:35.120
And uh how he crafts this coalition, he crafts this coalition distributing cabinet portfolios to other parties, especially PMDB, but also other parties as the Brazilian system fragmented.
00:04:36.160 --> 00:04:39.920
And with that, uh majorities created.
00:04:40.160 --> 00:05:08.560
So both Cardozo, Fernando Cardozo, Brazilian president between 1994 and uh 2002, and Lula, president between 2003 and 2010, they could approve, they had the rates of approval of his of their legal initiatives in Congress that was similar to the approval rates of the British system.
00:05:09.519 --> 00:05:20.160
So close to 90% of their legal initiatives were approved in Congress, and this is the Presidential Coalition system.
00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:37.199
As to Bolsa Família, Bolsa Família is a compensatory policy that's very important in order to reduce the huge inequalities that exist in Brazil.
00:05:37.920 --> 00:06:02.639
The government gives, it's not an entitlement in the sense that you need to qualify for it, but still the government uh supplements the income of the poor families up to 600 AIs, which is uh about half of the minimum wage and approximately 100 US dollars.
00:06:03.199 --> 00:06:17.600
I was checking some numbers the other day, and in 2026, uh some almost 20 million families receive cash from the Bolsa Familia.
00:06:18.160 --> 00:06:18.560
Yeah.
00:06:19.360 --> 00:06:21.120
It's a cash transfer system.
00:06:21.600 --> 00:06:25.360
No pork barrel politics is involved.
00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:29.040
Uh you either qualify or you do not qualify.
00:06:29.360 --> 00:06:35.600
Mayors or local politicians do not have any influence on Bolsa Familia.
00:06:35.759 --> 00:06:39.279
It's a truly universal cash transfer system.
00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:43.199
We have some local color, I can hear some birds in the background.
00:06:43.920 --> 00:06:44.560
Yeah.
00:06:45.199 --> 00:06:49.040
So it's a Bolsonaro did did try to change it a bit.
00:06:49.519 --> 00:06:56.879
Well, Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro uh it's a politician that has just a few concerns.
00:06:57.120 --> 00:07:02.639
He has a moral agenda, and the moral agenda is the most important issue for him.
00:07:02.879 --> 00:07:18.959
So being against abortion, being against the adoption of children by gay couples, uh, this kind of agenda are the important agendas for Bolsonaro, and he wanted to mobilize this base.
00:07:19.360 --> 00:07:24.720
Bolsa Familia and uh Bolaro inherited it.
00:07:24.959 --> 00:07:50.480
He kept it uh with a very low payment, and in the last year of his administration, he increased the value of Bolsa Familia, but he did not uh uh in his budget proposal for 2023, which would be the year if he would be re-elected, he would need to pay for it.
00:07:50.639 --> 00:07:55.839
There was no forecast for Bolsa Familia in the 2023 budget.
00:07:56.079 --> 00:08:07.519
So it was clearly a sort of cash transfer electoral cycle, in which you pay for the poor to vote for you and then you leave them behind after that.
00:08:08.240 --> 00:08:11.759
This kind of uh politics.
00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:12.480
Yeah.
00:08:12.879 --> 00:08:20.240
But he he wasn't proposing to end it, he was it was just this, he he gave an extra which was unfunded.
00:08:20.720 --> 00:08:21.040
Yeah.
00:08:21.680 --> 00:08:23.519
So that's the Bolsa Familia.
00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:34.639
So then far, people say, and indeed from within, people say that somehow the Bolsonaro period was some sort of threat to Brazilian institutions.
00:08:35.279 --> 00:08:43.840
And of course, we have seen elsewhere that elected presidents can undermine political institutions quite sometimes quite fundamentally.
00:08:44.080 --> 00:08:49.919
So, what is it that he tried to do, and what was it that what was the resistance?
00:08:50.799 --> 00:09:08.399
Yeah, well, from day one, or even before that, still during the electoral period in uh 2018, Bolsonaro uh son made the remark: well, to close the Brazilian Supreme Court, you need just need a GIP.
00:09:08.720 --> 00:09:13.759
And uh a GIP, yeah, and two soldiers.
00:09:14.000 --> 00:09:18.240
You don't need more than that to close the Brazilian Supreme Court.
00:09:18.559 --> 00:09:28.000
He was dead wrong about that, because Brazilians, in fact, respect the court, and the court has a legitimacy among Brazilians.
00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:46.799
In addition to that, still in the early months of 2019, uh it came to the attention of many people in Brazil that uh there were attacks to the opposition, but also to Supreme Court justices, important politicians.
00:09:47.519 --> 00:10:11.840
And as people would try to see where these attacks uh in the in the internet or social networks were coming from, they identified the second floor of the presidential palace where an institution, quote unquote, called the hate cabinet, was established.
00:10:12.159 --> 00:10:15.840
The hate that's right, Gabinete do audio.
00:10:16.480 --> 00:10:17.039
Exactly.
00:10:17.120 --> 00:10:19.519
Yeah, hate cabinet, yes.
00:10:19.759 --> 00:10:20.399
Yes.
00:10:20.720 --> 00:10:36.960
Um and uh Bolsonaro created a professional structure to uh further polarize the country, attack center politicians, and the Brazilian Supreme Court.
00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:48.159
The Supreme Court, as a reaction to that, opened uh an inquiry uh that is called the Fake News Investigation.
00:10:48.320 --> 00:11:11.919
Yeah, and fake news investigation, which uh at that point um the member who was assigned to chair this investigation was the junior minister or the rookie of the Brazilian uh Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes, yeah, was just has just been nominated by Michel Temer.
00:11:12.480 --> 00:11:14.559
So he was in charge.
00:11:15.120 --> 00:11:18.960
And very rapidly he identified the source.
00:11:19.200 --> 00:11:33.200
And he and uh and the Brazilian federal police, uh, it's a judicial police that's very active and take orders directly from the Brazilian Supreme Court, which is not the American system.
00:11:33.360 --> 00:11:39.840
I don't know how it is the British system, but in the US you need to go through the Attorney General.
00:11:40.000 --> 00:11:42.000
But in Brazil you don't need to.
00:11:42.480 --> 00:11:53.919
So uh the federal police investigated and uh made several uh indictments out of that.
00:11:54.480 --> 00:12:07.840
This was the beginning of Bolsonaro's uh attack on democratic institutions, and he started to make personal attacks against Moraes and in September 7.
00:12:08.320 --> 00:12:23.120
September 7 is Independence Day in Brazil, September 7, 2021, he made a very strong speech against Moraes, saying, I'm not I'm no longer going to accept his orders.
00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:28.720
So this is the first point of Bolsonaro's attack against democracy.
00:12:28.960 --> 00:12:40.639
A second one, which is also very important, is Bolsonaro from the very beginning made criticisms of the electronic ballot.
00:12:41.039 --> 00:12:56.799
Brazil has a very sophisticated technological system for counting the votes much better than many uh advanced democracies, especially the US.
00:12:56.879 --> 00:13:01.360
Well, it's not clear that the US is an advanced democracy at this point.
00:13:01.919 --> 00:13:21.759
Uh, but still, the US counts votes on a decentralized way, Brazil counts votes on a centralized system, and uh despite the fact that we had uh more than 100 million electors, uh the electoral result comes out in a few hours.
00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:24.240
So Bolsonaro criticized this.
00:13:24.480 --> 00:13:34.240
He criticized the system, said the system was prone to hacking, which is not true, because the system is not connected.
00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:38.399
It's an intranet and it's not connected to the internet.
00:13:39.279 --> 00:13:57.279
Um also uh increased his attacks uh against the system as the Brazilian electoral court gave access to the system, which is a common procedure about the near before the election.
00:13:57.440 --> 00:14:14.559
Uh any party can check the system, can check the coding of the system in order to uh be sure that it works and it does not lead, uh mislead uh in relation to the results.
00:14:14.799 --> 00:14:25.519
So Bolsonaro made this attack, and in July 2022, a few months before the election, he called what we today call the ambassadors meeting.
00:14:25.759 --> 00:14:39.279
So he summoned um international ambassadors to the presidential palace in order to say that the system was not safe and that uh he was afraid that the elections would be reaped.
00:14:39.600 --> 00:14:48.399
Today he's even convicted for spending resources for summoning the ambassadors.
00:14:48.559 --> 00:14:58.720
So all this uh led to uh a comprehensive challenge of Brazilian political institutions.
00:14:59.039 --> 00:15:03.919
And did he have support from other parts of the I mean he wasn't alone in this, was he?
00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:10.000
He had support from people in the parliament, in the chamber, in the Senate, from the press.
00:15:14.879 --> 00:15:19.840
And uh there is uh also an informal institution that we call Central.
00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:29.759
And Central is kind of rentiers of the political system that goes from the extreme right to the center right.
00:15:29.919 --> 00:15:36.159
And Central was in charge of both chambers, the lower chamber and the Senate.
00:15:36.399 --> 00:15:36.559
Yeah.
00:15:36.720 --> 00:15:39.360
Central, which just means the big center.
00:15:39.840 --> 00:15:41.519
Yeah, the big center, yeah.
00:15:41.840 --> 00:15:43.120
And central was in charge.
00:15:43.360 --> 00:15:52.080
Central perhaps never agreed, also because the Brazilian presidential election elections are a comprehensive election.
00:15:52.240 --> 00:16:05.679
Uh all governors, uh between one-third and two-thirds of the senators, uh, all MPs, federal and state, they are all elected on the same day.
00:16:05.919 --> 00:16:10.000
So you challenge election, you challenge all deals.
00:16:10.399 --> 00:16:18.960
And of course, for Central, it made no sense to challenge uh its own uh uh election.
00:16:19.759 --> 00:16:27.440
So Bolsonaro was not alone, but he did not have a huge majority on his side as he did that.
00:16:29.519 --> 00:16:44.240
So so this um personality in Morais has become a very central figure, and some people might say that he has acquired a political um protagonism, shall we say.
00:16:44.480 --> 00:17:04.640
I mean, certainly to people uh to me and to people outside Brazil if the procedure that the Supreme Court can initiate um a an investigation is very unusual, but they can just do this on the basis of what they read in the papers, so to speak, on their own initiative.
00:17:05.519 --> 00:17:07.359
Well, not exactly.
00:17:07.519 --> 00:17:18.319
Yeah, well, um in Brazil, Ministério Público, the public prosecutor, is the initiator of all uh criminal investigations.
00:17:18.559 --> 00:17:18.880
Yeah.
00:17:19.119 --> 00:17:21.440
So this is the Brazilian law.
00:17:21.759 --> 00:17:30.799
But uh the statute of the Brazilian Supreme Court allows the court to initiate processes when it is attacked.
00:17:31.039 --> 00:17:36.880
And this is the foundation, the legal foundation of the fake news investigation.
00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:37.440
Right.
00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:50.000
Yeah, so it's not completely illegal, but uh, of course, it was an overstretching of the court uh legal initiative.
00:17:50.240 --> 00:18:21.920
The court did that to defend itself, and uh, we can say uh that this is a sort of defensive democracy device, because if the court did not do it, eventually Brazil could have ceased uh to be a democracy, yeah, because Bolsonaro would really uh disempower the court, and the court was very important to contain him just after the 2022 election.
00:18:22.319 --> 00:18:22.960
Yeah.
00:18:23.279 --> 00:18:31.119
So I should say to the readers also that in Brazilian political jargon, the word for fake news is fake news.
00:18:31.680 --> 00:18:34.960
It's a become part of the language in Brazil.
00:18:35.599 --> 00:18:51.440
So you don't think that um the protagonism of this particular in individual judge who has taken the lead in in several cases has um done any harm to the standing of the Supreme Court?
00:18:53.039 --> 00:19:12.799
Well, um it's difficult to say when you are in a situation where democracy is eroding itself uh from within, yeah, as we say, is the case of Brazil, the United States, and a few other countries, uh uh you have to face two issues.
00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:15.920
One is how can I save democracy?
00:19:16.240 --> 00:19:22.640
And uh, of course, you need to address this issue in legal terms.
00:19:22.880 --> 00:19:37.759
So uh Moraes went, uh took this road, and the road was at least semi-legal in a good sense of the word, because the statute of the Supreme Court, of the Constitution of the Supreme Court allowed it.
00:19:38.160 --> 00:19:45.839
Uh, but in addition to that, uh it was an overstretching of the court uh prerogatives.
00:19:46.240 --> 00:20:00.079
Um but I ask you if the US Supreme Court would be using the same kind of devices and forbidding some of the abuses of Donald Trump, would the US today be less or more democratic?
00:20:00.960 --> 00:20:03.119
Well, I don't know because it hasn't happened yet.
00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:05.200
I mean, I I'm not okay.
00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:08.240
I'm not saying I hope it will happen soon.
00:20:08.559 --> 00:20:09.200
Yes.
00:20:09.920 --> 00:20:10.559
Yes.
00:20:11.119 --> 00:20:16.079
So, and then well, then Lula wins the election.
00:20:16.319 --> 00:20:21.519
Um still, though, one has to say that it wasn't by a massive majority.
00:20:21.599 --> 00:20:29.440
I mean, and if it hadn't been for Lula, do you think that Bolsonaro might have won the election in 2022?
00:20:30.559 --> 00:20:39.920
Well, Bolsonaro created his uh or managed his administration in order to enlarge his political basis.
00:20:40.160 --> 00:20:53.119
So he did many, many things up to the pandemic that uh would give uh enormous advantage to himself and his uh political group.
00:20:54.559 --> 00:21:10.160
In addition to that, uh Bolsonaro uh was popular in the sense that he did a sort of populist policy that was uh very uh well accepted by the Brazilian poor.
00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:21.759
He would come to the major cities to to make a motorcycle parade uh with his supporters, something that we called motossiatas.
00:21:22.160 --> 00:21:24.880
Mussolini also liked to do that.
00:21:25.039 --> 00:21:25.680
Yeah.
00:21:25.920 --> 00:21:31.039
Uh so and people would see themselves contemplated.
00:21:31.359 --> 00:21:44.480
Bolsonaro had built up various constituencies during his presidency, and despite the disaster of COVID, which doesn't seem to have harmed him as much as you would have thought.
00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:46.000
Yeah.
00:21:46.240 --> 00:21:55.119
Um well um he created new constituencies and made important advances towards the poor.
00:21:55.440 --> 00:22:06.000
He allowed the guys who uh received Increase in Bolsa familiar's value to indept themselves in public value.
00:22:07.039 --> 00:22:17.920
So Bolsonaro put into the economy something close to one percent of the Brazilian GNP in the 90 days before the election.
00:22:18.240 --> 00:22:19.279
That's a lot.
00:22:20.079 --> 00:22:21.119
Yeah, it's a lot.
00:22:21.599 --> 00:22:22.880
This made a difference.
00:22:25.440 --> 00:22:36.160
These were people who who were who were very poor who were receiving uh 600 AIs from Alta Familia and they were able to go to the bank and borrow m borrow against that.
00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:38.079
My God.
00:22:38.480 --> 00:22:45.599
So that that th that's why he how he maintained uh you know a fairly high percentage of the vote.
00:22:46.000 --> 00:22:58.079
So and uh of course the other element which people talk about a lot is the evangelical vote, which seems to go two-thirds to to Bolsonaro, no?
00:22:58.880 --> 00:23:17.359
Yeah, the evangelical vote was also very important because you you need to see that uh the increase in the political influence of the new Pentecostal politicians of Juma Hussein uh did not produce a political decadent.
00:23:17.839 --> 00:23:24.720
As a matter of fact, uh Jim Hassan himself, the important bishop of the universal church.
00:23:24.960 --> 00:23:28.480
He broke with Juma ten days before the impeachment.
00:23:29.119 --> 00:23:39.359
So um the new Pentecostals were almost evenly divided to change after the impeachment and after today.
00:23:43.759 --> 00:23:53.279
Uh there is a difference of almost 20 points in evangelical support for Bolsonaro and Lula.
00:23:53.839 --> 00:23:55.680
So this was also very important.
00:23:56.319 --> 00:24:00.480
Where Bolsonaro did not fare well, he did not fare well.
00:24:00.960 --> 00:24:13.680
Uh in the Brazilian Northeast, among women and in large cities of the Brazilian Southeast, where he was losing support because of COVID, for instance.
00:24:14.000 --> 00:24:21.440
Lula won in the city of Sao Paulo, though uh loss in the state of Sao Paulo.
00:24:22.720 --> 00:24:30.319
The difference of votes in the state of Sao Paulo between Haddad who ran in 2018 and Lula.
00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:35.839
Uh Lula decreased this difference in almost four million votes.
00:24:36.960 --> 00:24:57.039
In regard to the internal Brazilian policies, Brazil has been very active and really resisted the attempts and the pressures of the United States uh to bring Brazil to its knees through taxes and international tariffs.
00:24:57.200 --> 00:25:11.599
Uh so Brazil resisted, uh received um exemptions, the US uh went back in regard to the imposition of tariffs in Brazil.
00:25:11.839 --> 00:25:16.640
Right now uh the tariffs are back, but Brazil is still negotiating.
00:25:16.799 --> 00:25:43.839
There are negotiations that will happen today uh with uh between Brazil and the US in this regard, and Brazil in this sense is doing uh at least as well as Canada and China, in the sense of uh telling the United States administration that it's not going to get its way without negotiation, negotiating uh uh with fair terms uh with the country.
00:25:44.240 --> 00:25:58.000
So in this regard, I think that the Lula's administration did very well despite the fact that there is this enormous imbalance of power between the United States uh and Brazil.
00:25:58.400 --> 00:26:05.200
Uh so uh I think uh that will uh the game is still being played.
00:26:05.279 --> 00:26:10.240
Uh we cannot say that the US will get its way in relation to Latin America.
00:26:10.400 --> 00:26:19.920
Even Claudia Scheinbaum, in my view, she resisted on key issues in regard to the US that she needed uh to resist.
00:26:20.400 --> 00:26:26.160
But we cannot make a coalition with Malay or with Keiko Fujimori.
00:26:26.880 --> 00:26:42.720
Though it's important to point out that Keiko made important openings in regard to the Lula's administration just after her inauguration, and the bilateral relations between Peru and Brazil right now are not bad.
00:26:44.000 --> 00:27:10.960
So Brazil in relation to the other South American countries is trying to solve the issue on uh bilateral um uh negotiations, and in regard to the US, it's not bending in the same way that other countries did because it has an economy that it's very calibrated in terms of its international relations.
00:27:11.279 --> 00:27:27.759
So the US is not uh does not represent a huge uh amount of the Brazilian exports, as a matter of fact, Brazilian exports are very balanced uh to both China, the European community and the US.
00:27:27.839 --> 00:27:35.039
And I would say that the US does not have the kind of leeway it thinks uh it has with Brazil.
00:27:35.279 --> 00:27:46.240
So uh uh during the first uh uh uh attractions between the Trump administration and Brazil, the US reviewed its position.
00:27:46.400 --> 00:27:58.000
Uh and I hope it will review again, despite the fact that it's not happy with the administration, uh but the role of the Brazilian administration is not making Trump happy.
00:27:58.559 --> 00:27:58.799
No.
00:27:59.279 --> 00:28:05.440
Because you say Brazil's main uh partner for commodities trade is China, isn't it?
00:28:05.759 --> 00:28:06.640
Not not America.
00:28:07.599 --> 00:28:08.720
It's very easy.
00:28:09.119 --> 00:28:13.839
Uh so China it it's uh the largest partner.
00:28:14.400 --> 00:28:27.039
Um the US, as a matter of fact, Brazilian exports to the US uh are decreasing in quantity and in value because uh this is the result of the tariffs.
00:28:27.119 --> 00:28:27.440
Yeah.
00:28:29.359 --> 00:28:54.160
Um if the situation continues as it is, most likely there there will emerge uh uh a second and a third partner, and Brazil will diversify its exports because Brazilian meat exports, for instance, are uh are sick in in the Middle East, for instance, Saudi Arabia and other countries.
00:28:54.319 --> 00:29:09.839
Uh in Europe, there is some sort of protest among especially French uh uh farmers, but still Brazil is increasing uh its agricultural exports also to the European community.
00:29:10.160 --> 00:29:17.359
So I don't think that the US has the kind of leverage with Brazil that it thinks uh it has.
00:29:18.000 --> 00:29:18.400
Yeah.
00:29:18.960 --> 00:29:28.960
So finally, uh does Brazil uh do Brazil do Brazilian diplomats, shall we say, not politicians, because I don't think they're particularly uh interested in the subject.
00:29:29.359 --> 00:29:41.680
Do Brazilian diplomats have any uh idea of whether uh whether they should have a role uh in Venezuela or do they have uh relation relationships with the Venezuelan government?
00:29:43.759 --> 00:29:53.920
Well the problem is that the Maduro's administration was on very bad terms with Brazil when he was captured uh uh early this January.
00:29:54.160 --> 00:30:07.440
So Brazil did not recognize the election result and uh it should not have, because uh there were indications of massive fraud uh which does not justify of course uh the US invasion.
00:30:07.680 --> 00:30:13.920
But as a matter of fact, uh Brazil was not on very good terms uh with Maduro.
00:30:14.559 --> 00:30:37.119
Um so um the Brazilian position is uh we are, of course, for the full self-determination of Venezuela uh in uh all its meanings, which means that the Venezuelan oil should belong to Venezuela in addition to its political sovereignty.
00:30:37.519 --> 00:30:55.759
The problem is what Brazil can do right now, and we have to point out that it's not just a Brazilian problem, the Europeans also did not protest very much uh in the same way as the Chinese and the Russians, because we are in a different world right now in relation to these issues.
00:30:56.000 --> 00:31:08.079
So Brazil is doing exactly in relation to Venezuela or uh exactly the same that all the other countries uh in the international community are doing.
00:31:08.960 --> 00:31:09.359
Yeah.
00:31:09.759 --> 00:31:31.680
I mean I did feel that for many years uh Brazil and other Latin American countries were very uh unwilling to take a position wh while Maduro and indeed Chavez before him were clearly breaking the rules on in a systematic and ever ever more violent basis uh way.
00:31:32.240 --> 00:31:40.799
But there was very little um very little will to become involved.
00:31:41.279 --> 00:31:51.359
And that of course is to do with the Latin American what you've just described, you know, the Latin American um respect for respect for sovereignty.
00:31:53.519 --> 00:32:12.079
As we are speaking, the Brazilian media are talking about the Brazilian Supreme Court finding itself in the midst of the worst crisis since the constitution of 1988, and maybe even since long before that.
00:32:12.640 --> 00:32:24.559
This has to do with a case surrounding a bank called the Banco Master, which has then had various repercussions over the last six months or so.
00:32:24.799 --> 00:32:29.279
So, Leo, can you please explain to us what this is all about?
00:32:30.319 --> 00:32:54.160
Yes, um well, Banco Master, uh you need to understand that Brazil has a very monopolized financial system um that has been deregulated, uh, but uh still it's concept, most of the activity, financial activities and assets are concentrated in less than a dozen banks.
00:32:54.559 --> 00:33:15.759
Um Banco Master is a bank that emerged through deregulation here in Belo Horizonte with very strong links with Igreja Batista da Lagoinha, uh which is a new Pentecostal church uh in the city, but also very important neo-pentecostal church uh in Brazil as a whole.
00:33:16.000 --> 00:33:32.799
Banco Master grew offering uh very high interest rates uh for investors, and um these investors uh these interest rates were not sustainable.
00:33:32.960 --> 00:33:49.039
So what Master did uh it wanted funds from a guarantor uh institution that exists in Brazil, such as the FDIC in the United States, that is Fundo Garantidor de Crecio.
00:33:49.759 --> 00:34:33.760
And this is the federal this is the deposit insurance, it's a deposit insurance, but most of its money are paid by the banks, so eventually the largest Brazilian banks uh challenged the central bank about how much money it was putting into Master, and in order to circumvent the central bank regulation and the other banks, Master went to the political system and um um got on its side very important politicians and very important Supreme Court uh justices.
00:34:34.159 --> 00:34:57.039
So for you to understand, David, Master is very different from Lava Jato and uh Men Salão, not only because Master is clearly what we say in Brazil, a banco de direita, well, very strong links with the Brazilian rights and Bolsonaro's, but also because it's not a systemic crisis.
00:34:57.199 --> 00:35:04.960
It's not a crisis that involves the whole financial system, the whole political system, the whole judicial system.
00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:27.360
What master did is it paid outrageous amounts of money to a few people, and among these people we see at least one Brazilian Supreme Court Justice, very important one, Alexandre de Moraes, and also uh very important leaderships of the Central.
00:35:27.679 --> 00:35:31.280
I think we already talked about Central, yeah, Steven Gueira.
00:35:31.840 --> 00:35:39.519
We've also we've also heard of Moraes previously as it with his protagonism in the fake news case.
00:35:39.920 --> 00:35:40.559
Yes.
00:35:40.880 --> 00:36:03.360
Um Moraes had the protagonism in the fake news case and containing Bolsonaro, um in uh running uh the conviction of those who uh invaded the Tripower Square on January 8th, 2023.
00:36:03.599 --> 00:36:14.960
So a very powerful and Supreme uh Supreme Court justice, but through his wife law office, he received tens of millions of dollars.
00:36:15.280 --> 00:36:20.960
His wife, his wife, is his wife's legal of his wife's law, law practice.
00:36:21.280 --> 00:36:22.880
Yes, in Brazilia.
00:36:23.039 --> 00:36:25.519
And this, I would say, she's not the only one.
00:36:25.599 --> 00:36:56.800
It's very common among Supreme Court justices, but the case involves morais because it involves uh a felony that in Brazil we called advocacia administrativa, which is when an officer a public officer uh advocates privately uh or lobbies privately for uh uh some particular interest.
00:36:57.119 --> 00:37:01.360
So um it's different from Lava Jato, but it's very important.
00:37:02.480 --> 00:37:22.719
And because Bolsonaro was convicted by Moraes and by the Supreme Court, and because he cannot run, the Brazilian right wants to remove uh Moraes from his post or impeach Moraes uh through this scandal.
00:37:22.880 --> 00:37:23.760
What happens?
00:37:24.000 --> 00:37:32.559
Bolsonaro indicated uh Supreme Court justice, he indicated two, but one of them is neo-Pentecostal.
00:37:32.800 --> 00:37:42.800
In the words of Bolsonaro, he would indicate someone terriblemente evangelical, these uh these were the words he used.
00:37:42.960 --> 00:38:21.599
And Mendoza in the last week put fire on the Brazilian Supreme Court by first releasing, most likely illegally, messages between uh the president of uh the bank, Daniel Rojado, and Moraes, and second, uh because the Brazil the Brazilian Federal Police uh objected to some of his actions, he removed the president of the federal police, which is completely unconstitutional and illegal, and this was just restored this morning.
00:38:21.920 --> 00:38:36.159
But at this point, we have a public uh fight among Supreme Court justices that might uh influence or most certainly will influence the election.
00:38:36.320 --> 00:38:50.159
Um, the Brazilian Supreme Court at this point has a very weak president, it's a rotation position in Brazil, uh, it's a very weak justice, and he cannot stand against both of them.
00:38:50.480 --> 00:39:08.639
Um and we have um a guerra de liminares, a war of injunctions, uh, because the Brazilian Supreme Court is both constitutional court but also the top level uh of appeal uh for normal cases.
00:39:09.199 --> 00:39:16.159
So all the time we see injunctions, which is something very uncommon in constitutional courts.
00:39:16.320 --> 00:39:22.880
So at this point, um this war might involve the other two powers.
00:39:23.119 --> 00:39:44.320
One because Mendonça yesterday interfered in the executive branch, also because Mendonça is investigating the president of the Senate, which is the House that oversees actions of the uh Brazilian Supreme Court justices.
00:39:44.719 --> 00:39:51.760
So we can reach Election Day in a generalized institutional crisis.
00:39:51.920 --> 00:39:54.320
This is a real possibility right now.
00:39:55.360 --> 00:40:01.280
You might reach election day with a crisis between the Senate and the Supreme Court.
00:40:02.159 --> 00:40:03.760
And the executive branch.
00:40:04.079 --> 00:40:04.960
And all three.
00:40:06.320 --> 00:40:08.480
Between the three, yeah, among the three.
00:40:08.880 --> 00:40:13.760
Why is Mendonsa investigating the president of the Supreme Court?
00:40:15.039 --> 00:40:20.400
No, he's not investigating the president of the Supreme Court, he's investigating Moraes.
00:40:20.559 --> 00:40:21.039
That's right.
00:40:21.199 --> 00:40:35.840
And he's in Moraes is not the president of the court, but in the rotation system, uh the forecast is he's going to assume the presidency uh late next year.
00:40:36.239 --> 00:40:43.840
But he is the strongest justice right now, though his legitimacy is decreasing.
00:40:44.079 --> 00:40:52.960
So Mendoza is investigating him because he changed he exchanged messages uh with the president of the master bank.
00:40:53.440 --> 00:40:58.880
So because he's yeah, he he was investigating also the president of the Senate.
00:40:59.679 --> 00:41:09.199
He's uh he's investigating the president of the Senate because he's also involved in the master scandal.
00:41:09.360 --> 00:41:10.480
Why is it?
00:41:10.719 --> 00:41:33.039
Because he's from a state of the north of Brazil called Amapa, and uh the pension fund of public employees in Amapa put money into the master bank, and the fund lost a lot of money, and the person who took the decision is personally linked to Davi of Columbria.
00:41:33.360 --> 00:41:35.280
The president of the Senate, I see.
00:41:35.519 --> 00:41:41.920
So I mean, how is this conceivable that one judge can investigate another?
00:41:42.719 --> 00:41:44.480
It's not conceivable.
00:41:44.800 --> 00:42:11.199
Uh, according to the constitution of the Brazilian Supreme Court, he needs the authorization uh both from the president of the court and from the pla uh the plenarium, the full uh members' uh chamber, and he evaded that and sent it to public opinion and to the press.
00:42:11.440 --> 00:42:23.679
The problem is right now, Brazilians and the Brazilian press, at least the large newspapers and global network, what they really want to know is did he receive the money?
00:42:24.800 --> 00:42:26.079
Is he guilty?
00:42:26.320 --> 00:42:45.039
We cannot in Brazil, given the low complex low uh education of our electorate, conceive that the electorate would understand that this is procedurally unfeasible or illegal.
00:42:45.280 --> 00:42:48.880
Um what people want is Moraes to explain himself.
00:42:49.119 --> 00:43:14.800
But in this process, Mendonza went so far that yesterday, monitoring social networks, some Brazilian uh monitoring institutions saw that Moraes was more uh Mendonza was more criticized in in uh the social media than had his uh actions approved.
00:43:15.039 --> 00:43:39.280
So one possible solution is uh not to impeach the two because this is going to take time, but at least to remove them from the actions that they are taking or from the Banco Master uh scandal uh in order for to allow the court to resume some sort of normality.
00:43:39.840 --> 00:43:48.880
So the Banco Master, meanwhile, I mean it attempted to take over a bank in Braz in Brasilia, didn't it?
00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:54.880
And it was not to take over, it's a it's a second parallel scandal.
00:43:55.039 --> 00:43:59.760
So Brazil had a bank called BRB, and BRB is a state.
00:44:00.400 --> 00:44:10.239
Bank of Brazilia popular among public employees that had nothing to do with the master scandal.
00:44:10.320 --> 00:44:29.199
But at this at one point, because Daniel Vojcaro, the bank president, is very well connected with the central, the governor of the Federal District, Ibanez Rocha, wanted his bank to help or to assume master.
00:44:29.519 --> 00:44:36.239
In the end, the bank lost$2 billion and did not solve the problem.
00:44:36.719 --> 00:44:42.880
So right now, uh this is also influencing the election in Brazilia.
00:44:43.119 --> 00:45:01.119
And the vice governor who was ranking first in the polls is now trailing a workers' party candidate who criticized her for the actions of both the former governor and the president of the BRB.
00:45:01.519 --> 00:45:05.599
So this is in the election for the governor of Brasilia.
00:45:06.000 --> 00:45:06.400
Yes.
00:45:06.639 --> 00:45:07.039
I see.
00:45:07.920 --> 00:45:09.679
The federal district, yeah.
00:45:10.079 --> 00:45:20.719
So finally, um you you use this expression one judge you say is weak, another judge is strong.
00:45:21.840 --> 00:45:37.280
And I mean we can see that Mohais has been very prominent in the media and has indeed got his way on in the in his um com in his um the trials of Bolsonaro.
00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:42.480
But um what do you really mean by a judge being strong or weak?
00:45:44.079 --> 00:45:52.320
Well, um the Brazilian Supreme Court is so politicized that some judges have the upper hand against others.
00:45:52.480 --> 00:46:09.760
For instance, uh Jomar Mendes was very strong during the Duma's administration, could even block uh her nomination of Lula for Chief of Staff in early 2015.
00:46:10.559 --> 00:46:20.239
Um Alexandre Mendes, who used to be a rookie and was nominated by Michel Temer, uh became a very strong judge.
00:46:20.320 --> 00:46:24.239
And when you are a strong judge, you do things.
00:46:24.480 --> 00:46:35.280
For instance, you indict people, you interrupt uh actions uh of the executive branch.
00:46:35.440 --> 00:46:43.519
All this, in my view, is very wrong because the Supreme Court cannot assume prerogatives of the other branches.
00:46:43.599 --> 00:46:46.800
But in Brazil, if you are a strong judge, you can.
00:46:47.039 --> 00:46:57.760
And this is exactly what Mendonça tried to do yesterday, uh September 8th, when he removed the president of federal police.
00:46:58.000 --> 00:47:07.519
Federal police is an executive branch institution, and Lula has full authority, and no one can remove without due process.
00:47:07.920 --> 00:47:17.119
And uh removing the president of the federal police through an injunction is absolutely inconstitutional and illegal.
00:47:17.360 --> 00:47:19.760
So Mendoza tried to do that.
00:47:20.320 --> 00:47:28.000
And as he tried, he may uh diminish his influence in the court.
00:47:28.320 --> 00:47:36.880
Eventually, uh the full plenum will vote on that, and most likely he'll lose.
00:47:37.280 --> 00:47:42.239
So uh this is what a strong judge means.
00:47:42.400 --> 00:47:52.480
And a weak judge is a judge who does not have very much influence um with other justices.
00:47:53.119 --> 00:48:09.280
Um and right now, the weakest of the j among the justices is the president of the Brazilian Supreme Court, which is not good, and we'll see how this is going to evolve during the next few weeks.
00:48:09.599 --> 00:48:11.280
Well, this is really quite serious.
00:48:11.440 --> 00:48:21.760
I notice also that the polls which looked like giving favor to Lula are now leveling up between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.
00:48:22.400 --> 00:48:26.400
Well, this is a very short-run uh indicator.
00:48:26.719 --> 00:48:39.119
Uh so most likely it's because uh of the revelations uh that have been made against Moraes, but now we have revelations against Mendonza.
00:48:39.280 --> 00:48:46.079
And the fact of the matter is Lula is not involved with the Master Bank, but Flavio Bolsonaro is.
00:48:46.559 --> 00:49:07.039
So in the end, that is why they need to control the federal police, uh, or the bolsonaristas need to control the federal police, because most likely the upper hand on who is more involved is going to be decided through revelations of the Brazilian Federal Police.
00:49:07.440 --> 00:49:08.159
Very interesting.
00:49:08.320 --> 00:49:30.480
One should remember that the owner of the Banco Master uh offered to fund a film about um Jair Bolsonaro, and the son was raising what you said was enormo enormous sums of money for this, well in excess of what one might need for a film of that kind.
00:49:31.679 --> 00:49:45.840
Yes, and most likely the the extra money, though it's still not clear, but most likely the extra money is for funding extreme right activities against Brazil in the United States.
00:49:46.159 --> 00:49:46.559
Uh-huh.
00:49:47.840 --> 00:49:48.400
I see.
00:49:48.639 --> 00:50:09.119
And finally, I want to tell our listeners or remind our listeners that we have another podcast which was already published with Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos, which was also about the subject of the politicization of the judiciary or the judicialization of politics much more broadly in Latin America.
00:50:09.519 --> 00:50:13.840
So we have a theme there which is already in two of our podcasts.
00:50:15.679 --> 00:50:22.159
So thank you very much, Leo, for this extra, which we will add to the conversation we already had.
00:50:23.360 --> 00:50:24.639
Thank you, David.
00:50:25.440 --> 00:50:26.320
Such a pleasure.
00:50:27.360 --> 00:50:29.440
Thank you for listening to the Latin Americanist.
00:50:29.679 --> 00:50:39.599
If you enjoyed this episode, feel free to share it, and we'll be back soon with more insights, more interesting people, stories, and voices from across the region and beyond.
00:50:39.840 --> 00:50:43.760
Until then, stay curious and keep the conversation going.
