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Bye! Welcome back to The Starting
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Block, and good morning to you,
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wherever you're joining us from this
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afternoon or this morning.
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We are starting the show a little
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bit later today because we managed
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to get Ben Cowan on the show.
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He is waiting for us in the
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background. We're gonna run through
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the usual format of the
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show, if you're here for the first
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time, welcome to The starting Block.
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My name is Gareth Jenkinson, I'm
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your host and head of multimedia
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here at The Block.
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If it is your first time here, let
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me give you a quick rundown of how
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we usually do things.
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We start off with The Block
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briefing, Which is our
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highlight of the top news stories in
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the last 24 hours that you might
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have missed from the Blox News team.
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So I'll be running down all the big
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stories that you need to know
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about. Then we usually have a
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markets update, but we did quite an
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in-depth one yesterday.
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So we'll be skipping that today to
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jump into an in depth,
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full on market talk
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with Benjamin Cowan from Into the
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Cryptoverse. So really looking
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forward to that.
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But first things first, We'll give
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you a quick rundown of the news and
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let's. Jump straight into the
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headlines today.
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Bitcoin's under pressure this
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morning, sliding towards $64,000
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down more than 1%
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after four failed attempts to break
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above the 65,000 mark.
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ETH is taking it harder, or for
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almost 2% to around 88,000,
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88.
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And the whole market's holding its
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breath for Wednesday's US inflation
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report, the first major read since
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last week.
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Shock, jobs, miss, reshuffled
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September 8 expectations.
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Next shows Ilya Kalchev.
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Says what stands to put out isn't
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the failure to hold, but the
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character of the stall itself.
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So all eyes are now on that
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CPI print.
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Our next headline this morning, Riot
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platforms jumped 25%
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after hours on a blockbuster
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AI deal.
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The Bitcoin miner signed a 20-year
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data center lease worth roughly $9.1
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billion in total contract revenue,
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covering 191 megawatts of
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capacity at its Rockdale, Texas
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campus. Running through 2048.
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Two five-year extensions could push
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that value to 16.1
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billion.
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Ryan, Riot lined up a
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$573 million financing
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facility from Morgan Stanley
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to get started.
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The company didn't name the tenant,
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but Bloomberg reports it's
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Anthropic, the AI lab behind
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Claude, another mining giant leading
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hard into the AI computer.
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There was a lot of chatter
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internally at the block around this
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story. Obviously, Riot.
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Household name in the Bitcoin mining
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space now pivoting hard,
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making a lot of money from the
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AI boom.
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Our next headline, trading platform
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eToro is buying US brokerage
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trade zero in a deal with up
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to $231 million
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cash plus up to two and a half
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million newly issued shares.
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Trade zero founded in 2015 caters
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to active traders and pulled in
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about $80 million in revenue over
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the past year at 81%
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gross margins.
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EToro expects the deal to close
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in the first half of 2027,
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pending regulators and to lift its
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adjusted earnings in its first full
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year. CEO Yoni Assia
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calls it an important step in
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building the company's US business
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and a faster path to new
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products.
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Then Coinbase is rolling out
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derivatives for professional
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investors in the UK, part of its
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push towards what it calls an
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everything exchange.
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On the menu here is perpetuals,
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dated futures and crypto options.
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More than 170 contracts spanning
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crypto, commodities, equities, and
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foreign exchange.
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Perpetuals trade around the clock
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with leverage up to 50 times,
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dated futures up to 20.
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Options stay crypto only with
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calls and puts and multi-leg
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strategies.
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Access rolls out to eligible UK
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clients over the coming weeks.
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It follows Coinbase's new MFID
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license, which clears the way to
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offer these contracts.
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Then our next story, the crypto
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industry lost roughly $110
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million to hacks in July, according
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to security platform, ImmunFi.
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On the brighter side, confirmed and
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paid bug bounty reports climbed 18%,
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with researchers earning $2.3
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million for valid bugs
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that they found.
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Immunfi also took aim at traditional
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audits, its review of nearly 1,200
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tier one audits found a medium of
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zero critical or high severity bugs.
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While its own audit competition
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surfaced an average of 6.2
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serious bugs per engagement.
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And they found them cheaper too,
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about $6,500
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per critical bug
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versus 66,000
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in a private audit.
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And lastly, here's an unusual one.
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Michael Saylor's strategy actually
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sold some Bitcoin.
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The treasury giant offloaded 1,690
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Bitcoin for around $108.6
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million between August.
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Third and the ninth at
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an average price near $64,200.
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That trims its stacks to 840,000.
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Bitcoin's still a massive pile,
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still worth roughly $54.7
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billion.
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Strategy also sold 6.5 million
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shares for $653
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million using the proceeds to
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buy back preferred stock and top
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up its dollar reserve to
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$4.65 billion.
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Its holdings remain around 4%
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of all Bitcoin.
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But carry some $8.7 billion
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in paper losses.
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That's it for the block briefing
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this morning or afternoon, of
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course, wherever you're joining us
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from. We're gonna jump straight into
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the hot seat today and it's a great
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pleasure to welcome Ben Cowan
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to the show.
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If you've been in crypto a
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while, you will know Ben Cowen from
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into the crypto verse.
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But if you haven't,
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let's get Ben on and
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start there for people that don't
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know you out there.
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Ben, first things first, thank you
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so much for taking the time to join
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us.
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Yeah, just for the audience
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that might not know who you are, can
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you give us a quick TLDR of
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your history before you got into
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crypto and how you started
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this fantastic journey that's
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seen you stack up more than a
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million followers on X and a million
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subscribers on YouTube.
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Sure. Yeah.
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I started in
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I mean, I started getting interested
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in Bitcoin back in 2011.
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So a really long time ago,
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I wasn't buying it yet.
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In 2011, I was in college.
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I was my I
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think my second semester,
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maybe my first semester of
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my junior year, second semester.
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I can't remember exactly when it
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was, but it was
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my junior college, I was taking
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a cryptography class.
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I was studying mathematics, so
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we had these electives we could
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take, and I chose cryptography.
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And then I got interested in
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Bitcoin, I didn't have any money to
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put into it, I wish I had back
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then.
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But then I really got into it
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when I went to grad school.
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So I went into grad school in 2013,
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I did a PhD in nuclear engineering,
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a lot of the students in the lab
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were interested, fortunately,
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in investing and blockchain.
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And so that was kind
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of how I got really I
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really started to get into it.
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And then after I
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completed my PhD,
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I then went and I did a postdoc at
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a national lab, at Sandia
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National Labs. And when I was at the
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national lab like I was working on
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a high energy density
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physics, equation of state stuff.
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And I went to this conference
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in Portland, Oregon, this physics
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conference, and I presented my
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research in June
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of 2019.
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And right after I presented it, I
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then went up to my hotel room.
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And then I made my first, uh,
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YouTube video.
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Uh, and, and the, the rationale
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for making it was basically just,
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Hey, like, you know, I've made a ton
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of mistakes, uh in
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crypto and let me
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try and see if I can help people,
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uh avoid some of the mistakes that
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I've made, but like that was, that
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was kind of how I, how I came to be
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here. And I mean, I, I did
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the YouTube channel and worked,
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uh you know full time job for a
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couple of years.
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But then I quit that in 2021 and
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I've just been doing this full time
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ever, ever since.
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Best job in the world I can imagine.
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I traded doing some sports
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broadcasting for crypto and went
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full time in 2022.
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To be honest with you, I haven't
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looked back since.
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If my studio has anything to go by,
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I'm a big Bitcoin proponent.
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Just to keep it topical,
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I don't know if you watched
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with interest the BIP 110 debate
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or anything like that, but I
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did want to get a sense from you,
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your general outlook for Bitcoin as
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it stands right now, both from a
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market's perspective.
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A fundamentals perspective.
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We've seen so many interesting
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things happen with Bitcoin in recent
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years. And I think more than
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anything, the mainstreaming
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of Bitcoin, which has been divisive
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00:08:40,350 --> 00:08:42,469
for hardcore Bitcoin maxis,
286
00:08:42,470 --> 00:08:44,849
but more level-headed
287
00:08:44,850 --> 00:08:46,829
sort of take so that this
288
00:08:46,830 --> 00:08:48,249
is what everyone wanted for a very
289
00:08:48,250 --> 00:08:49,989
long time and it's playing out now
290
00:08:49,990 --> 00:08:51,789
and we don't really get to choose
291
00:08:51,790 --> 00:08:54,369
who uses Bitcoin and how.
292
00:08:54,370 --> 00:08:55,989
But yeah, what's your general take
293
00:08:55,990 --> 00:08:57,969
on the state of Bitcoin
294
00:08:57,970 --> 00:08:59,039
as it were? I mean like
295
00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:00,299
It's a difficult market.
296
00:09:00,300 --> 00:09:01,479
It's been a difficult market for a
297
00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,299
long time, especially for the
298
00:09:03,300 --> 00:09:04,279
rest of the crypto market.
299
00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,199
I mean, Bitcoin is arguably one
300
00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:08,319
of the few things that has done
301
00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:10,259
anything in
302
00:09:10,260 --> 00:09:11,979
terms of going up for the last, I
303
00:09:11,980 --> 00:09:13,099
mean obviously recently it's gone
304
00:09:13,100 --> 00:09:14,999
down. But if you look at say the
305
00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,699
last like four years or so most
306
00:09:16,700 --> 00:09:18,539
cryptocurrencies are actually below
307
00:09:18,540 --> 00:09:20,519
their 2022 lows right
308
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,659
now, rather than
309
00:09:22,660 --> 00:09:24,339
near their 2021 highs.
310
00:09:24,340 --> 00:09:25,939
So, you know, it's tough for
311
00:09:25,940 --> 00:09:27,559
Bitcoin. If you throw up my screen
312
00:09:27,560 --> 00:09:29,729
here, Um, this chart,
313
00:09:29,730 --> 00:09:31,569
it actually shows the, the
314
00:09:31,570 --> 00:09:33,749
ROI of Bitcoin as measured
315
00:09:33,750 --> 00:09:35,089
from the low.
316
00:09:35,090 --> 00:09:36,949
And I mean, this one takes you
317
00:09:36,950 --> 00:09:39,609
from the load to the next low.
318
00:09:39,610 --> 00:09:41,429
And what you can see, I don't
319
00:09:41,430 --> 00:09:43,049
know if you guys can see the screen,
320
00:09:43,050 --> 00:09:45,209
but essentially Bitcoin topped
321
00:09:45,210 --> 00:09:47,249
on a day
322
00:09:47,250 --> 00:09:49,309
like 1050 something.
323
00:09:49,310 --> 00:09:51,049
Yeah. Like this purple line, it tops
324
00:09:51,050 --> 00:09:53,289
on day like 1,050 something you
325
00:09:53,290 --> 00:09:54,689
can see the cycle for that one
326
00:09:54,690 --> 00:09:55,949
topped on day. Like.
327
00:09:55,950 --> 00:09:57,829
1060 or so, the cycle for that
328
00:09:57,830 --> 00:09:59,729
was like 1070, a
329
00:09:59,730 --> 00:10:01,089
little bit before that.
330
00:10:01,090 --> 00:10:03,229
And so every single cycle, as
331
00:10:03,230 --> 00:10:04,969
measured from the low, has basically
332
00:10:04,970 --> 00:10:07,189
topped around the same time.
333
00:10:07,190 --> 00:10:09,649
The main difference this cycle is
334
00:10:09,650 --> 00:10:11,149
that we did not have a rotation into
335
00:10:11,150 --> 00:10:11,989
higher risk assets.
336
00:10:11,990 --> 00:10:13,369
And the reason we didn't have a
337
00:10:13,370 --> 00:10:15,209
higher rotation or a rotation in a
338
00:10:15,210 --> 00:10:16,569
higher risk assets is because
339
00:10:16,570 --> 00:10:18,769
Bitcoin never had a euphoria phase.
340
00:10:18,770 --> 00:10:20,449
Right. Like the euphoria phase that
341
00:10:20,450 --> 00:10:21,869
normally accompanies the end of full
342
00:10:21,870 --> 00:10:23,709
markets did not actually
343
00:10:23,710 --> 00:10:25,469
happen. You could argue that in
344
00:10:25,470 --> 00:10:27,109
order for that to have happened,
345
00:10:27,110 --> 00:10:28,249
Bitcoin would have had to go to
346
00:10:28,250 --> 00:10:31,089
$200,000 by the end of 2025.
347
00:10:31,090 --> 00:10:32,169
But it didn't.
348
00:10:32,170 --> 00:10:33,989
And I think the reason it didn't if
349
00:10:33,990 --> 00:10:35,909
you need one is probably related
350
00:10:35,910 --> 00:10:37,969
to, to monetary policy
351
00:10:37,970 --> 00:10:39,948
in a lot of ways, because
352
00:10:39,949 --> 00:10:42,049
while structurally it's very similar
353
00:10:42,050 --> 00:10:43,949
to the 2018 cycle,
354
00:10:43,950 --> 00:10:45,349
like if you look at the year-to-date
355
00:10:45,350 --> 00:10:47,589
ROI of Bitcoin in 2026
356
00:10:47,590 --> 00:10:49,499
and compare that to 2018, I mean.
357
00:10:49,500 --> 00:10:51,159
This is just a less volatile version
358
00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:51,939
of 2018.
359
00:10:51,940 --> 00:10:53,439
The lows align, the lower highs
360
00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,220
align, it all more or less aligns.
361
00:10:56,780 --> 00:10:58,619
So I think what's happening is that
362
00:10:58,620 --> 00:11:02,059
in 2019,
363
00:11:02,060 --> 00:11:03,959
Bitcoin topped two months
364
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:05,099
before quantitative tightening
365
00:11:05,100 --> 00:11:06,639
ended.
366
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:07,859
And so Bitcoin topped in June and
367
00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:08,939
then QT ended in August.
368
00:11:08,940 --> 00:11:10,079
And then this cycle, it was the same
369
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,259
thing. It's just QT, ended in
370
00:11:11,260 --> 00:11:12,599
December. Bitcoin topped it in
371
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,459
October. And by the way, there was
372
00:11:14,460 --> 00:11:16,559
no rotation into higher risk assets,
373
00:11:16,560 --> 00:11:17,859
right? We did not get the rotation
374
00:11:17,860 --> 00:11:19,399
into altcoins.
375
00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,379
Just like 2019 and
376
00:11:21,380 --> 00:11:22,419
I know a lot of people have a hard
377
00:11:22,420 --> 00:11:24,299
time saying that like 2025 and
378
00:11:24,300 --> 00:11:26,519
2019 were similar types of tops but
379
00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,379
they both topped on apathy
380
00:11:28,380 --> 00:11:29,679
right where there was relatively
381
00:11:29,680 --> 00:11:30,659
little interest in the crypto
382
00:11:30,660 --> 00:11:32,619
markets we even track like
383
00:11:32,620 --> 00:11:34,779
I can have a really cool chart here
384
00:11:34,780 --> 00:11:36,479
people can look at where you're
385
00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,559
looking at like the collective views
386
00:11:38,560 --> 00:11:40,179
on YouTube the various crypto
387
00:11:40,180 --> 00:11:41,999
YouTube channels and when you look
388
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:43,879
at, where it is today compared to
389
00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:45,199
where it was in 2021.
390
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:46,399
I mean, it's like a world of
391
00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:47,259
difference, right? Like this is
392
00:11:47,260 --> 00:11:48,579
completely different.
393
00:11:48,580 --> 00:11:50,519
Than 2021, it's
394
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,359
really low, kind of like it was
395
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,419
back in the 2018, 2019
396
00:11:54,420 --> 00:11:56,359
era, when, oh, by the way, we
397
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,079
also topped on apathy and we did not
398
00:11:58,080 --> 00:11:59,199
get that rotation.
399
00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:00,539
So that's essentially where Bitcoin
400
00:12:00,540 --> 00:12:02,079
is from a technical perspective.
401
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,279
If you look at how Bitcoin normally
402
00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,019
bottoms out, it normally finds
403
00:12:07,020 --> 00:12:09,019
a low sometime kind of
404
00:12:09,020 --> 00:12:10,799
like later in the midterm year.
405
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:12,439
So arguably, we're potentially
406
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,119
setting up for that, like maybe one
407
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:14,989
more drop.
408
00:12:14,990 --> 00:12:16,610
We form the market cycle bottom, and
409
00:12:16,611 --> 00:12:18,449
then hopefully we can get back in
410
00:12:18,450 --> 00:12:19,969
business with the next bull market,
411
00:12:19,970 --> 00:12:21,690
ideally going into 2027.
412
00:12:23,750 --> 00:12:25,689
That was my general read
413
00:12:25,690 --> 00:12:27,609
and a lot of more
414
00:12:27,610 --> 00:12:29,049
knowledgeable market analysts have
415
00:12:29,050 --> 00:12:30,969
been telling me that they expect
416
00:12:30,970 --> 00:12:33,649
us to actually find a
417
00:12:33,650 --> 00:12:36,589
proper cycle low in October.
418
00:12:36,590 --> 00:12:38,509
I wanted to ask you if you
419
00:12:38,510 --> 00:12:40,529
agree with that sentiment or is
420
00:12:40,530 --> 00:12:41,969
it harder than that to actually pin
421
00:12:41,970 --> 00:12:43,169
down when?
422
00:12:43,170 --> 00:12:44,869
If we all had a crystal ball, we'd
423
00:12:44,870 --> 00:12:46,729
be rich and no one
424
00:12:46,730 --> 00:12:48,769
has all those answers, but how
425
00:12:48,770 --> 00:12:50,309
do you anticipate this playing out
426
00:12:50,310 --> 00:12:52,049
to the end of 2026?
427
00:12:52,050 --> 00:12:53,549
So if you look at all the prior bear
428
00:12:53,550 --> 00:12:55,369
market bottoms for Bitcoin,
429
00:12:55,370 --> 00:12:57,429
like in 2015, or sorry, the 2014
430
00:12:57,430 --> 00:12:58,789
bear market didn't actually bottom
431
00:12:58,790 --> 00:13:00,609
until January of the following year,
432
00:13:00,610 --> 00:13:02,189
the next bear market ended in
433
00:13:02,190 --> 00:13:04,069
December, the next one was November.
434
00:13:04,070 --> 00:13:05,549
The last two bear markets lasted
435
00:13:05,550 --> 00:13:06,389
about one year.
436
00:13:06,390 --> 00:13:08,409
So we saw November to November
437
00:13:08,410 --> 00:13:10,729
from 2021 to 2022.
438
00:13:10,730 --> 00:13:12,609
In 2017 to 2018, it was December
439
00:13:12,610 --> 00:13:13,469
to December.
440
00:13:13,470 --> 00:13:15,189
So you can kind of see where people
441
00:13:15,190 --> 00:13:16,649
are getting October from because
442
00:13:16,650 --> 00:13:17,969
Bitcoin topped in October.
443
00:13:17,970 --> 00:13:19,349
So about a year long bear market
444
00:13:19,350 --> 00:13:21,529
would put the next low approximately
445
00:13:21,530 --> 00:13:22,858
in.
446
00:13:22,859 --> 00:13:24,859
October in 2022, we also
447
00:13:24,860 --> 00:13:27,019
saw the stock market find a low in
448
00:13:27,020 --> 00:13:28,079
October, right?
449
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:29,839
So there's a lot of things that
450
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:31,939
that, you know, can often happen
451
00:13:31,940 --> 00:13:33,459
in October.
452
00:13:33,460 --> 00:13:35,399
But I wouldn't like I wouldn't
453
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:37,119
t marry that single month and say
454
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,019
that it has to be then I would argue
455
00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:40,119
that it's sort of like a
456
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:41,059
distribution.
457
00:13:41,060 --> 00:13:43,019
So if you were to have like a chart
458
00:13:43,020 --> 00:13:45,079
as to like win Bitcoin bottoms
459
00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:46,839
and you have sort of, like the
460
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:48,519
months where like you say this is,
461
00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:49,459
you know, this is when it's going to
462
00:13:49,460 --> 00:13:50,369
be.
463
00:13:50,370 --> 00:13:52,849
And you start off with say,
464
00:13:52,850 --> 00:13:54,949
like, you know, July and
465
00:13:54,950 --> 00:13:58,369
then you go August, September,
466
00:13:58,370 --> 00:14:00,629
October, November,
467
00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:01,630
December.
468
00:14:03,530 --> 00:14:05,469
I don't know why I drew a V there,
469
00:14:05,470 --> 00:14:07,349
but December and
470
00:14:07,350 --> 00:14:08,350
then January.
471
00:14:10,390 --> 00:14:11,369
Then.
472
00:14:11,370 --> 00:14:12,969
I would argue that it would probably
473
00:14:12,970 --> 00:14:14,189
look something like this where, you
474
00:14:14,190 --> 00:14:16,229
know, there's a chance the low has
475
00:14:16,230 --> 00:14:18,149
already occurred but I would argue
476
00:14:18,150 --> 00:14:19,549
that you know if you're looking like
477
00:14:19,550 --> 00:14:20,949
a sort of like a normal distribution
478
00:14:20,950 --> 00:14:22,809
you're Probably looking at something
479
00:14:22,810 --> 00:14:24,709
like that where like the most
480
00:14:24,710 --> 00:14:26,909
likely time for a low would
481
00:14:26,910 --> 00:14:28,769
probably october But that doesn't
482
00:14:28,770 --> 00:14:30,249
mean it can't happen in like late
483
00:14:30,250 --> 00:14:32,009
september It also doesn't means it
484
00:14:32,010 --> 00:14:33,529
can happen until maybe it doesn't
485
00:14:33,530 --> 00:14:35,249
happen until december You know, I
486
00:14:35,250 --> 00:14:37,189
mean in 2018 the the
487
00:14:37,190 --> 00:14:39,379
bottom didn't occur until dezembr
488
00:14:39,380 --> 00:14:40,639
And structurally, we've been
489
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,719
following 2018 pretty closely
490
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,399
so far.
491
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,039
And what I mean by that is if you
492
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:47,919
look at the lows
493
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,319
in 2018, they were at 6,000.
494
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,219
This cycle has been at 60,000,
495
00:14:52,220 --> 00:14:53,959
so just 10x higher.
496
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,359
And the lows occurred at the same
497
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:56,419
time, right? You had a low in
498
00:14:56,420 --> 00:14:58,319
February, a higher low in late
499
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,339
March, early April, a lower low
500
00:15:00,340 --> 00:15:01,459
in June, July.
501
00:15:01,460 --> 00:15:02,499
The same thing's happened here,
502
00:15:02,500 --> 00:15:03,979
right, a low in February higher low
503
00:15:03,980 --> 00:15:05,379
and late March early April.
504
00:15:05,380 --> 00:15:06,979
A lower low and June, LIE!
505
00:15:06,980 --> 00:15:08,799
You know, if it does play out the
506
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:10,379
same way, then yeah, like it's
507
00:15:10,380 --> 00:15:11,599
possible that it takes until
508
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,739
November for the next
509
00:15:13,740 --> 00:15:15,799
move down to occur, I don't know.
510
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:17,759
But I would argue that October
511
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,559
is the most likely time, but you
512
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,819
have to give like, you know,
513
00:15:21,820 --> 00:15:23,399
some probability to it happening
514
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:24,359
other months.
515
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,019
I would say that if you had to pick
516
00:15:26,020 --> 00:15:27,819
a single month, the highest
517
00:15:27,820 --> 00:15:29,699
probability, it would be October.
518
00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:30,979
But if you take the combined
519
00:15:30,980 --> 00:15:33,049
probability of all the other months,
520
00:15:33,050 --> 00:15:34,949
it might be equivalent to the
521
00:15:34,950 --> 00:15:36,329
probability of it being in October,
522
00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:37,330
if that makes sense.
523
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,339
It does make sense when it comes
524
00:15:40,340 --> 00:15:41,499
to doing this analysis.
525
00:15:41,500 --> 00:15:42,799
Obviously a lot has changed over the
526
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:44,439
years. And I think if we look back
527
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,559
at these previous cycles, I
528
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,219
started covering the industry kind
529
00:15:48,220 --> 00:15:49,939
of midway through 2017.
530
00:15:49,940 --> 00:15:51,659
So, you know, I experienced the
531
00:15:51,660 --> 00:15:53,499
euphoria of the 2017
532
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:55,679
bull run up to 20,000
533
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:56,899
and then the crash, you now into
534
00:15:56,900 --> 00:15:58,619
2018.
535
00:15:58,620 --> 00:16:00,399
But, you there was a lot of retail
536
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:01,899
interest then like really, you the
537
00:16:01,900 --> 00:16:03,779
Google searches were popping off.
538
00:16:03,780 --> 00:16:05,359
I'm sure, you YouTube channels were
539
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:06,379
popping off and it was very
540
00:16:06,380 --> 00:16:07,929
interesting for you to show that.
541
00:16:07,930 --> 00:16:10,069
That previous chart showing
542
00:16:10,070 --> 00:16:12,049
the difference between YouTube
543
00:16:12,050 --> 00:16:13,829
viewership and interest in certain
544
00:16:13,830 --> 00:16:15,009
topics.
545
00:16:15,010 --> 00:16:16,629
When you're doing your analysis now,
546
00:16:16,630 --> 00:16:19,749
as opposed to three, four years ago,
547
00:16:19,750 --> 00:16:20,929
considering the amount of
548
00:16:20,930 --> 00:16:22,409
institutional interest, has that
549
00:16:22,410 --> 00:16:24,109
changed some of the fundamentals you
550
00:16:24,110 --> 00:16:26,289
look at when you're trying to do
551
00:16:26,290 --> 00:16:28,389
this proper fundamental technical
552
00:16:28,390 --> 00:16:29,719
analysis?
553
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:31,759
I don't really put a lot of
554
00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:32,679
weight into that stuff.
555
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,120
I mean, I think to some degree, you
556
00:16:34,121 --> 00:16:35,999
would argue that like,
557
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,119
as Bitcoin grows, it's
558
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:39,899
going to naturally attract bigger
559
00:16:39,900 --> 00:16:41,039
players.
560
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,079
And so you're going to
561
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:44,539
have institutions interested.
562
00:16:45,780 --> 00:16:47,939
I don't really think that,
563
00:16:47,940 --> 00:16:49,819
like it has to be that
564
00:16:49,820 --> 00:16:51,919
like, oh, it's different now.
565
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:52,889
I think.
566
00:16:52,890 --> 00:16:54,509
I think from like a business cycle
567
00:16:54,510 --> 00:16:56,389
perspective, it feels a lot
568
00:16:56,390 --> 00:16:58,389
like 2019, 2020,
569
00:16:58,390 --> 00:17:00,449
early, like late 2019, early 2020
570
00:17:00,450 --> 00:17:02,690
to me is kind of what it feels like.
571
00:17:04,290 --> 00:17:06,189
And I think that,
572
00:17:06,190 --> 00:17:07,589
I mean, even recently,
573
00:17:08,670 --> 00:17:10,549
we've actually seen the ETF
574
00:17:10,550 --> 00:17:12,289
holdings have been dropping, right
575
00:17:12,290 --> 00:17:13,108
over the last few months.
576
00:17:13,109 --> 00:17:15,129
So what was previously a
577
00:17:15,130 --> 00:17:16,689
tailwind has actually become a
578
00:17:16,690 --> 00:17:18,250
headwind in 2026.
579
00:17:19,599 --> 00:17:21,818
So I think it's a narrative for
580
00:17:21,819 --> 00:17:24,059
sure that we could latch on to,
581
00:17:24,060 --> 00:17:25,939
but at the end of the day, I'm a
582
00:17:25,940 --> 00:17:27,899
big believer in that narrative
583
00:17:27,900 --> 00:17:30,919
follows price and, you know,
584
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,859
Bitcoin, I know this is
585
00:17:32,860 --> 00:17:35,079
like maybe a controversial
586
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,379
view, but I
587
00:17:37,380 --> 00:17:39,399
actually preferred Bitcoin before
588
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,279
all these large
589
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,039
players got involved, like before
590
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,039
the governments were interested in
591
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:46,119
Bitcoin. Because if you think about
592
00:17:46,120 --> 00:17:47,619
it, ever since the government's
593
00:17:47,620 --> 00:17:48,839
really started focusing in on
594
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,079
Bitcoin, Bitcoin hasn't really gone
595
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,759
anywhere. I mean, we're trading the
596
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:52,999
time of this video. We're trading at
597
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,399
sixty three thousand dollars.
598
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,139
We were trading at 63 thousand
599
00:17:56,140 --> 00:17:58,099
dollars, you know, back in twenty
600
00:17:58,100 --> 00:17:59,159
twenty one.
601
00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:00,579
Right. And if you if you look at the
602
00:18:00,580 --> 00:18:01,979
if you look at evaluation of Bitcoin
603
00:18:01,980 --> 00:18:03,839
against the S&P 500,
604
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,639
we are trading at where we were in
605
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:06,640
2020.
606
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,539
So, you to a large to
607
00:18:09,540 --> 00:18:11,699
some degree, I
608
00:18:11,700 --> 00:18:13,979
I really preferred Bitcoin.
609
00:18:13,980 --> 00:18:15,119
Before all this stuff, think about
610
00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:17,038
it like this,
611
00:18:17,039 --> 00:18:19,219
Bitcoin essentially went to 60K
612
00:18:19,220 --> 00:18:21,739
without all this hype, right?
613
00:18:21,740 --> 00:18:23,559
From like the institutions and all
614
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:24,719
that stuff. I mean, yes, Sailor
615
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,259
first started buying in late 2020,
616
00:18:27,260 --> 00:18:28,759
but Bitcoin was already like, it was
617
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:30,519
already in business back then.
618
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:31,839
I mean the Fed was printing like $6
619
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:33,399
trillion. I mean there was tons of
620
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:34,559
money being printed.
621
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:36,319
It was already at a bull market.
622
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:37,919
Even if Sailor hadn't bought in late
623
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:39,379
20, I still think Bitcoin would have
624
00:18:39,380 --> 00:18:40,919
had a really great bull market, you
625
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:41,999
know, going into 2021.
626
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,319
So...
627
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,259
I think that
628
00:18:45,260 --> 00:18:46,680
those narratives,
629
00:18:48,120 --> 00:18:49,479
honestly, if anything, they've been
630
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:50,700
a headwind for Bitcoin.
631
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,699
And one of the things about going
632
00:18:54,700 --> 00:18:55,559
through what we're going through
633
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,999
right now in terms of
634
00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:59,699
interest in crypto, like retail
635
00:18:59,700 --> 00:19:01,719
interest has died off, it
636
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,739
almost makes it so that
637
00:19:03,740 --> 00:19:05,279
perhaps Bitcoin is going to get
638
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,339
maybe less attention from
639
00:19:07,340 --> 00:19:08,479
these players, which I think would
640
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,359
be a bullish thing, as
641
00:19:10,360 --> 00:19:11,379
crazy as that sounds.
642
00:19:11,380 --> 00:19:12,689
Like, I mean.
643
00:19:12,690 --> 00:19:14,489
I know that like the narrative is
644
00:19:14,490 --> 00:19:16,429
that like, you know, like ETFs
645
00:19:16,430 --> 00:19:19,149
are good, but,
646
00:19:19,150 --> 00:19:21,289
but arguably two things.
647
00:19:21,290 --> 00:19:23,469
First of all, when thematic
648
00:19:23,470 --> 00:19:25,529
ETFs are launched they're normally
649
00:19:25,530 --> 00:19:27,109
launched near the end of bull
650
00:19:27,110 --> 00:19:28,729
markets, not at the beginning of
651
00:19:28,730 --> 00:19:30,889
them because it takes a
652
00:19:30,890 --> 00:19:32,709
long bull market to get
653
00:19:32,710 --> 00:19:34,329
people interested enough to then,
654
00:19:34,330 --> 00:19:35,949
you know, have the interest to even
655
00:19:35,950 --> 00:19:37,990
launch the ETF in the first place.
656
00:19:39,030 --> 00:19:41,149
And then also thematic ETFs
657
00:19:41,150 --> 00:19:42,729
also underperform the market.
658
00:19:42,730 --> 00:19:44,549
Like the S&P, especially for the
659
00:19:44,550 --> 00:19:45,969
first few years after they're
660
00:19:45,970 --> 00:19:46,969
launched.
661
00:19:46,970 --> 00:19:48,569
So like what you're seeing right now
662
00:19:48,570 --> 00:19:50,489
happening with Bitcoin after the ETF
663
00:19:50,490 --> 00:19:51,789
launch is basically what happens
664
00:19:51,790 --> 00:19:53,849
with every industry after the ETS
665
00:19:53,850 --> 00:19:55,389
launch. I mean look at the QQQ when
666
00:19:55,390 --> 00:19:57,269
the Q QQ launched it
667
00:19:57,270 --> 00:19:59,089
went up for a year and then
668
00:19:59,090 --> 00:20:00,409
underperformed the market for years
669
00:20:00,410 --> 00:20:02,449
but I mean now look at QQ Q.
670
00:20:02,450 --> 00:20:04,349
I means tech is crazy and you
671
00:20:04,350 --> 00:20:05,549
know so I mean eventually Bitcoin
672
00:20:05,550 --> 00:20:07,609
will get back to that point But I
673
00:20:07,610 --> 00:20:09,469
think that I think a lot
674
00:20:09,470 --> 00:20:11,519
of these things you know, have
675
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,699
not necessarily been the tailwind
676
00:20:13,700 --> 00:20:14,959
that people thought they were going
677
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:15,960
to be.
678
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,619
Because I have to imagine that if,
679
00:20:18,620 --> 00:20:20,259
you know when the ETFs were launched
680
00:20:20,260 --> 00:20:22,799
back in, you know, back in 2024,
681
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:23,999
had you told people that Bitcoin
682
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,719
would still be trading at 60k,
683
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,379
they would probably not look at that
684
00:20:28,380 --> 00:20:30,579
as an overwhelming success.
685
00:20:30,580 --> 00:20:31,580
Right?
686
00:20:31,660 --> 00:20:33,479
So I think There's the narrative,
687
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,959
but in reality,
688
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,439
ETFs are antithetical to Bitcoin,
689
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,369
right? If you want to buy Bitcoin,
690
00:20:41,370 --> 00:20:43,429
you want to own your keys,
691
00:20:43,430 --> 00:20:45,269
but it's almost like
692
00:20:45,270 --> 00:20:46,469
we have an identity problem right
693
00:20:46,470 --> 00:20:47,449
now because there's a lot of people
694
00:20:47,450 --> 00:20:48,329
that did that.
695
00:20:48,330 --> 00:20:49,869
And then they had the, you know,
696
00:20:49,870 --> 00:20:51,709
they went with a, we just had
697
00:20:51,710 --> 00:20:54,109
this, this hat, right, cold card.
698
00:20:54,110 --> 00:20:55,649
And so that's called, it's kind of
699
00:20:55,650 --> 00:20:56,969
like an identity crisis to some
700
00:20:56,970 --> 00:20:58,789
degree of like, well, you have these
701
00:20:58,790 --> 00:21:00,009
people that did what they thought
702
00:21:00,010 --> 00:21:00,869
was the right thing.
703
00:21:00,870 --> 00:21:01,889
What they thought was the right
704
00:21:01,890 --> 00:21:03,209
thing and they still lost money.
705
00:21:03,210 --> 00:21:05,049
And, and in that case, that
706
00:21:05,050 --> 00:21:06,829
wasn't a failure of Bitcoin.
707
00:21:07,830 --> 00:21:08,969
Right. That was more of a third
708
00:21:08,970 --> 00:21:10,909
party issue, but the problem
709
00:21:10,910 --> 00:21:12,829
is like, good luck convincing
710
00:21:12,830 --> 00:21:14,729
everyday people of
711
00:21:14,730 --> 00:21:15,729
that, right? Like good luck,
712
00:21:15,730 --> 00:21:17,029
convincing that it's not just a
713
00:21:17,030 --> 00:21:18,229
Bitcoin problem.
714
00:21:18,230 --> 00:21:19,869
And I think that's kind of the main
715
00:21:19,870 --> 00:21:21,909
barrier that we have right now.
716
00:21:21,910 --> 00:21:23,869
And, and so, you know, I think we
717
00:21:23,870 --> 00:21:25,129
just need a little bit more time.
718
00:21:25,130 --> 00:21:26,489
Also the last thing, cause I can
719
00:21:26,490 --> 00:21:28,049
ramble forever, but The last thing
720
00:21:28,050 --> 00:21:28,579
I'm.
721
00:21:28,580 --> 00:21:28,920
Nice, Greg.
722
00:21:28,921 --> 00:21:30,779
Last thing I would say is that in
723
00:21:30,780 --> 00:21:31,959
this last cycle, I think the
724
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:33,459
industry lost its way because we
725
00:21:33,460 --> 00:21:35,179
only focused on how to get more
726
00:21:35,180 --> 00:21:36,259
money into the industry.
727
00:21:36,260 --> 00:21:37,979
Like we focused on ETS, we focused
728
00:21:37,980 --> 00:21:39,799
on strategic Bitcoin reserves, and
729
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,219
then the only things that did really
730
00:21:41,220 --> 00:21:43,119
well for very, very brief periods
731
00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:44,999
of time were like the micro cap
732
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,559
meme coins, right?
733
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,279
And everything else in crypto just
734
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,179
kind of like died out because no one
735
00:21:50,180 --> 00:21:51,299
cared about it anymore.
736
00:21:51,300 --> 00:21:52,799
And then the meme coins eventually
737
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,299
they're now dying out because people
738
00:21:54,300 --> 00:21:56,439
are like, okay, they're just scams.
739
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:57,799
And I think.
740
00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,599
We're going through sort of this
741
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,699
painful, maturing process as
742
00:22:01,700 --> 00:22:03,479
an industry, because for the
743
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,439
industry to grow and to
744
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,559
become like what, you know,
745
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:08,779
probably what you and I think it can
746
00:22:08,780 --> 00:22:10,819
eventually become, you have
747
00:22:10,820 --> 00:22:12,339
to go through periods like this
748
00:22:12,340 --> 00:22:14,219
where people realize, hey,
749
00:22:14,220 --> 00:22:16,059
we had this massive mal-investment
750
00:22:16,060 --> 00:22:18,139
of capital for years, and
751
00:22:18,140 --> 00:22:19,799
now we need to actually invest it in
752
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:20,619
a proper way.
753
00:22:20,620 --> 00:22:22,699
And I think that that process is
754
00:22:22,700 --> 00:22:24,639
just a multi-year process, and
755
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,799
it's been going on, arguably,
756
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,639
since 2021, because again,
757
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,339
when you look at social interest,
758
00:22:30,340 --> 00:22:32,559
it's been trending down since 2021.
759
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:33,859
I have one more interesting chart
760
00:22:33,860 --> 00:22:34,960
really quick to show.
761
00:22:36,540 --> 00:22:38,539
This is the if
762
00:22:38,540 --> 00:22:39,939
you look at the advanced decline
763
00:22:39,940 --> 00:22:41,179
index of the top 100
764
00:22:41,180 --> 00:22:42,419
cryptocurrencies, this basically
765
00:22:42,420 --> 00:22:44,979
shows you, you know,
766
00:22:44,980 --> 00:22:46,859
the ADI is something that's used
767
00:22:46,860 --> 00:22:49,299
in the stock market a lot.
768
00:22:49,300 --> 00:22:50,899
And the point is to figure out like,
769
00:22:50,900 --> 00:22:52,640
is the is the index going up?
770
00:22:53,660 --> 00:22:55,979
Because everything is going up.
771
00:22:55,980 --> 00:22:58,019
Or is it going up because one
772
00:22:58,020 --> 00:23:00,499
or two assets are lifting it, right?
773
00:23:00,500 --> 00:23:03,679
Now look at 2020 and 2021.
774
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:04,999
This orange line, the advanced
775
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,459
decline index of the top 100
776
00:23:06,460 --> 00:23:08,639
cryptos, it was going up.
777
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,279
So like everything was going out
778
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:11,079
basically.
779
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,639
You could, any investor out there
780
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:13,899
could take a dart and throw it on a
781
00:23:13,900 --> 00:23:15,299
board and just go buy whatever it
782
00:23:15,300 --> 00:23:16,199
landed on. And they're probably going
783
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:17,599
to make money, right.
784
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,080
But ever since 2021,
785
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,739
this has been trending down.
786
00:23:21,740 --> 00:23:23,559
So the reason we even had a bull
787
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:24,889
market last cycle.
788
00:23:24,890 --> 00:23:26,909
Was because of Bitcoin, because
789
00:23:26,910 --> 00:23:28,489
a lot of the rest of the market was
790
00:23:28,490 --> 00:23:30,189
actually just trending down.
791
00:23:30,190 --> 00:23:31,569
And I think it makes sense because,
792
00:23:31,570 --> 00:23:33,089
you know, they go on to YouTube,
793
00:23:33,090 --> 00:23:34,749
they go on Twitter, the things that
794
00:23:34,750 --> 00:23:37,029
were getting the most attention were
795
00:23:37,030 --> 00:23:38,449
all these things that didn't really
796
00:23:38,450 --> 00:23:39,529
matter. Right.
797
00:23:39,530 --> 00:23:41,469
And now we're paying the price and
798
00:23:41,470 --> 00:23:43,329
it's hard and it and we did the same
799
00:23:43,330 --> 00:23:44,629
thing in 2019.
800
00:23:44,630 --> 00:23:45,969
The only difference between this
801
00:23:45,970 --> 00:23:48,049
cycle in 2019 is that
802
00:23:48,050 --> 00:23:49,469
the 2019 top,
803
00:23:50,570 --> 00:23:53,119
like the top that we had in 2019
804
00:23:53,120 --> 00:23:55,379
was not the four-year cycle top,
805
00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:56,639
right?
806
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,519
So we had this 2019 top, but
807
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,139
it's not the for your cycle top.
808
00:24:00,140 --> 00:24:02,059
This time it was the four year
809
00:24:02,060 --> 00:24:03,939
cycle top so the argument that I'm
810
00:24:03,940 --> 00:24:05,859
making is that the
811
00:24:05,860 --> 00:24:08,119
post apathetic top digestion
812
00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:10,559
phase we had in 2019 just
813
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,579
happens to align up with
814
00:24:12,580 --> 00:24:14,419
the 2026 bear market and then
815
00:24:14,420 --> 00:24:16,179
the four years cycle ends up winning
816
00:24:16,180 --> 00:24:17,180
again.
817
00:24:17,719 --> 00:24:19,579
Yeah, that was a really great riff
818
00:24:19,580 --> 00:24:21,419
by the way and I think like a lot
819
00:24:21,420 --> 00:24:22,839
of the things you said resonated
820
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,079
with me and we've been hearing it a
821
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:25,459
lot from people in the industry.
822
00:24:25,460 --> 00:24:27,179
I mean, I hate to talk about apathy
823
00:24:27,180 --> 00:24:28,539
and I don't want to be a doomer but
824
00:24:28,540 --> 00:24:30,659
I think that there's a lot people in
825
00:24:30,660 --> 00:24:32,519
industry right now that are kind of
826
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,199
thinking like, what's going to
827
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:34,979
happen from here?
828
00:24:34,980 --> 00:24:37,139
You know, and I like even just the
829
00:24:37,140 --> 00:24:38,899
entire Bitcoin thing right now, you
830
00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:40,499
know, like the cold card hack.
831
00:24:40,500 --> 00:24:41,939
As you mentioned, everyone did
832
00:24:41,940 --> 00:24:43,779
everything right and it wasn't a
833
00:24:43,780 --> 00:24:45,039
failing of the Bitcoin protocol, but
834
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,799
it's you know, like my parents are
835
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:47,879
gonna come and stay with me in a
836
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:48,699
couple of days time.
837
00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:49,779
And I'm sure that's the first thing
838
00:24:49,780 --> 00:24:50,799
they're gonna ask me about.
839
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:51,879
And then I have to explain to them
840
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:53,739
that no, it was actually an
841
00:24:53,740 --> 00:24:55,659
issue with a random number generator
842
00:24:55,660 --> 00:24:57,599
that cold card users were
843
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:58,859
using to generate their seed.
844
00:24:58,860 --> 00:25:01,239
And it's just as long convoluted
845
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,179
explanation that will go over most
846
00:25:03,180 --> 00:25:04,139
people's heads.
847
00:25:04,140 --> 00:25:05,519
And then they're kind of like, well,
848
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:06,939
I thought I was supposed to hold my
849
00:25:06,940 --> 00:25:08,119
Bitcoin. That's the point.
850
00:25:08,120 --> 00:25:09,799
I still fundamentally believe that.
851
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:11,639
I've seen guys like British HODL
852
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,599
saying like, put all your.
853
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,599
Put all your money into Bitcoin ETS,
854
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,039
forget about holding Bitcoin
855
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:18,759
yourself. I fundamentally don't
856
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:19,819
believe that.
857
00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:21,259
I still think Bitcoin is money.
858
00:25:21,260 --> 00:25:22,359
It's a great store of value.
859
00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:23,239
It's still going through price
860
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,719
discovery and you should be
861
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,079
in control of your keys and be in
862
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:27,939
your control of money. That's the
863
00:25:27,940 --> 00:25:29,899
whole point. It's censorship
864
00:25:29,900 --> 00:25:30,979
resistant money.
865
00:25:30,980 --> 00:25:32,959
So I want it to be that, but we're
866
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,019
definitely going through a crazy,
867
00:25:35,020 --> 00:25:36,299
like just a crazy time.
868
00:25:36,300 --> 00:25:37,299
And I don't know how much you've
869
00:25:37,300 --> 00:25:38,539
been paying attention to like the
870
00:25:38,540 --> 00:25:40,419
Bitcoin Red team,
871
00:25:40,420 --> 00:25:42,379
the guys at Anchor Watch and a
872
00:25:42,380 --> 00:25:43,399
couple of other.
873
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,279
The prominent Bitcoin is putting
874
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:46,699
a huge amount of time and effort and
875
00:25:46,700 --> 00:25:48,839
money basically using Kimi
876
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,999
AI to go and vet all
877
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,079
the open source Bitcoin code out
878
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,219
there and then point out big
879
00:25:55,220 --> 00:25:56,599
vulnerabilities to all the teams
880
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,299
that are building in Bitcoin in an
881
00:25:58,300 --> 00:25:59,539
effort to just make sure that we
882
00:25:59,540 --> 00:26:00,839
don't have anything like the cold
883
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,479
card exploit happen again.
884
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,319
And that's the links that people
885
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,099
that are interested in Bitcoin still
886
00:26:06,100 --> 00:26:08,699
reaching its purpose are
887
00:26:08,700 --> 00:26:10,539
willing to go to, pay for
888
00:26:10,540 --> 00:26:12,019
it themselves to make sure that the
889
00:26:12,020 --> 00:26:13,349
movement stays alive.
890
00:26:13,350 --> 00:26:15,229
And my next question
891
00:26:15,230 --> 00:26:16,689
to you is like, do you ever
892
00:26:16,690 --> 00:26:18,509
anticipate the retail interest
893
00:26:18,510 --> 00:26:20,429
of prior years coming back?
894
00:26:20,430 --> 00:26:21,329
And I mean, you're someone who's
895
00:26:21,330 --> 00:26:22,749
pretty plugged into a big community
896
00:26:22,750 --> 00:26:24,649
of people that respect your takes
897
00:26:24,650 --> 00:26:26,629
or respect your outlook on the
898
00:26:26,630 --> 00:26:28,029
markets, everything that you've
899
00:26:28,030 --> 00:26:29,989
built with your company.
900
00:26:29,990 --> 00:26:31,969
Do you think retail comes back or
901
00:26:31,970 --> 00:26:33,589
is it over?
902
00:26:33,590 --> 00:26:34,629
I think it will eventually come
903
00:26:34,630 --> 00:26:36,729
back. Yeah, I mean, again,
904
00:26:36,730 --> 00:26:39,049
from a business cycle perspective,
905
00:26:39,050 --> 00:26:40,989
everything is that's playing out now
906
00:26:40,990 --> 00:26:43,609
played out from 2018 to 2019.
907
00:26:43,610 --> 00:26:45,569
The main difference is this is a
908
00:26:45,570 --> 00:26:47,349
larger version of that, right?
909
00:26:47,350 --> 00:26:49,669
So if you throw up my screen here,
910
00:26:49,670 --> 00:26:51,229
and you look at if you were to
911
00:26:51,230 --> 00:26:52,970
overlay interest rates, and if you
912
00:26:52,971 --> 00:26:55,969
are to overlay the
913
00:26:55,970 --> 00:26:57,789
balance sheet of the Federal Reserve,
914
00:26:57,790 --> 00:26:59,349
not that you need all this stuff to
915
00:26:59,350 --> 00:27:00,569
like understand what's going on.
916
00:27:00,570 --> 00:27:02,449
But if you if you wanted
917
00:27:02,450 --> 00:27:03,509
a story to tell.
918
00:27:03,510 --> 00:27:05,569
You know, you can see back
919
00:27:05,570 --> 00:27:07,429
in, you know, 28 between 2019
920
00:27:07,430 --> 00:27:08,549
We had we were going through
921
00:27:08,550 --> 00:27:10,289
quantitative tightening and the Fed
922
00:27:10,290 --> 00:27:12,429
was raising rates, right now look
923
00:27:12,430 --> 00:27:13,789
at what we just went through Right.
924
00:27:13,790 --> 00:27:14,589
We've been we went through
925
00:27:14,590 --> 00:27:15,969
quantitative tightning a lot longer
926
00:27:15,970 --> 00:27:17,309
and then the Fed raised rates a lot
927
00:27:17,310 --> 00:27:19,529
higher So this whole
928
00:27:19,530 --> 00:27:21,849
thing right here in 2018 2019
929
00:27:21,850 --> 00:27:23,649
is this the smaller version of what
930
00:27:23,650 --> 00:27:25,289
we basically experience from like
931
00:27:25,290 --> 00:27:27,829
2022 through 2026
932
00:27:27,830 --> 00:27:29,709
and and so the argument is that
933
00:27:29,710 --> 00:27:31,619
like People are losing
934
00:27:31,620 --> 00:27:33,579
faith because this is going on
935
00:27:33,580 --> 00:27:34,939
longer than they thought it would
936
00:27:34,940 --> 00:27:36,579
but the reason it's going on Longer
937
00:27:36,580 --> 00:27:37,539
than they've thought it Would is
938
00:27:37,540 --> 00:27:39,139
because monetary policy remains
939
00:27:39,140 --> 00:27:40,979
restrictive for far longer
940
00:27:40,980 --> 00:27:42,279
than They thought it Would and the
941
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,259
argument for why that happened was
942
00:27:44,260 --> 00:27:46,239
because for the first time with the
943
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:47,439
exception of the pandemic in
944
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,379
bitcoins history We've actually had
945
00:27:49,380 --> 00:27:50,519
to worry a little bit about the
946
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:51,739
macro right like the unemployment
947
00:27:51,740 --> 00:27:53,219
rate the inflation rate That's not
948
00:27:53,220 --> 00:27:54,639
has been that hasn't been as well
949
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,559
behaved as it has been in prior
950
00:27:57,879 --> 00:27:59,779
in in prior cycles And
951
00:27:59,780 --> 00:28:01,579
so perhaps that's the reason why
952
00:28:01,580 --> 00:28:03,399
this has taken on this has gone on
953
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,879
longer and longer and longer.
954
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,639
But I do think I do you think retail
955
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:07,739
will eventually return.
956
00:28:07,740 --> 00:28:08,819
But, you know, it's hard for them to
957
00:28:08,820 --> 00:28:10,179
return when inflation is eating
958
00:28:10,180 --> 00:28:12,479
their their finances alive.
959
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,059
Like, I mean, it is hard.
960
00:28:14,060 --> 00:28:15,739
It's hard adjusting to like going to
961
00:28:15,740 --> 00:28:17,559
the grocery store and spending
962
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,039
two to three times what you would
963
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,259
spend in 2019, you
964
00:28:21,260 --> 00:28:22,799
for basically the same thing.
965
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,099
That's a hard adjustment.
966
00:28:24,100 --> 00:28:25,279
And it makes it so that people have
967
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:26,669
less disposable income.
968
00:28:26,670 --> 00:28:28,749
To then invest in higher risk
969
00:28:28,750 --> 00:28:29,909
assets, right? I mean, that's just
970
00:28:29,910 --> 00:28:32,369
the way the world works.
971
00:28:32,370 --> 00:28:35,529
I do think it will return, but
972
00:28:35,530 --> 00:28:36,849
you know, if you look at, there's
973
00:28:36,850 --> 00:28:39,449
the social metric here, social risk,
974
00:28:39,450 --> 00:28:41,309
we're currently at around 0.2
975
00:28:41,310 --> 00:28:42,310
risk.
976
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,199
And if you look at 2020-22,
977
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,719
the same time in 2022 in August,
978
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:50,499
we were actually at like 0.5.
979
00:28:50,500 --> 00:28:52,339
So what's remarkable is we
980
00:28:52,340 --> 00:28:54,199
had way more retail interest in
981
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,059
2022 than we have
982
00:28:56,060 --> 00:28:57,639
in 2026.
983
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,499
But if you go to the cycle before
984
00:28:59,500 --> 00:29:01,659
that, 2018
985
00:29:01,660 --> 00:29:03,719
in August social interest
986
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,699
was also 0.2.
987
00:29:05,700 --> 00:29:07,659
So again, we've been here
988
00:29:07,660 --> 00:29:09,699
before. We've been in this position
989
00:29:09,700 --> 00:29:10,869
before.
990
00:29:10,870 --> 00:29:12,729
And we can see that
991
00:29:12,730 --> 00:29:14,689
retail interest, it did come
992
00:29:14,690 --> 00:29:16,509
back. And I think it
993
00:29:16,510 --> 00:29:18,689
will come back, but it's
994
00:29:18,690 --> 00:29:20,049
coming back on a different timeline
995
00:29:20,050 --> 00:29:21,369
than what people think.
996
00:29:21,370 --> 00:29:23,829
And also the
997
00:29:23,830 --> 00:29:25,469
warning that I gave people five
998
00:29:25,470 --> 00:29:26,989
years ago as it relates to altcoins
999
00:29:26,990 --> 00:29:28,509
is like, guys, look, you're gonna be
1000
00:29:28,510 --> 00:29:30,209
better off with Bitcoin over
1001
00:29:30,210 --> 00:29:32,349
altcoins because whenever
1002
00:29:32,350 --> 00:29:33,869
retail interest does come back
1003
00:29:35,270 --> 00:29:36,529
the things that people are gonna
1004
00:29:36,530 --> 00:29:37,749
care about are probably way
1005
00:29:37,750 --> 00:29:38,789
different than the things they care
1006
00:29:38,790 --> 00:29:40,208
about in 2020 coin.
1007
00:29:40,209 --> 00:29:41,509
They're going to be chasing another
1008
00:29:41,510 --> 00:29:43,329
narrative, whether it
1009
00:29:43,330 --> 00:29:45,469
be AI or whatever the future
1010
00:29:45,470 --> 00:29:47,269
narrative might be, who knows what
1011
00:29:47,270 --> 00:29:48,209
it is.
1012
00:29:48,210 --> 00:29:50,149
But I think it will come back, but
1013
00:29:50,150 --> 00:29:51,249
you're just going to have to have
1014
00:29:51,250 --> 00:29:52,989
more time. And it's very unlikely to
1015
00:29:52,990 --> 00:29:53,829
come back this year.
1016
00:29:53,830 --> 00:29:56,249
This year is just a reset year,
1017
00:29:56,250 --> 00:29:58,729
not only for Bitcoin, but also for
1018
00:29:58,730 --> 00:29:59,729
metals as well.
1019
00:29:59,730 --> 00:30:00,989
It's been a reset here.
1020
00:30:00,990 --> 00:30:02,389
The stock market has gone on to new
1021
00:30:02,390 --> 00:30:03,549
all-time highs, but so what?
1022
00:30:03,550 --> 00:30:04,469
I mean, it went to new all-time
1023
00:30:04,470 --> 00:30:05,619
highs.
1024
00:30:05,620 --> 00:30:06,999
In 2018 as well.
1025
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:07,939
I think it went to new all-time
highs,
1026
00:30:07,940 --> 00:30:09,619
I believe, in 2014 as well, even
1027
00:30:09,620 --> 00:30:10,899
though Bitcoin continued on in the
1028
00:30:10,900 --> 00:30:11,919
bear market.
1029
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,679
And by the way, what normally
1030
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,179
happens is
1031
00:30:16,180 --> 00:30:17,439
that Bitcoin puts in its market
1032
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,359
cycle bottom when you get that
1033
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:20,459
second correction in the stock
1034
00:30:20,460 --> 00:30:22,419
market. So in 2014, 2018,
1035
00:30:22,420 --> 00:30:24,279
and 2022, we had a correction
1036
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:25,639
in stocks at the very beginning of
1037
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,079
the year that corresponded with
1038
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:28,619
Bitcoin's first big drop.
1039
00:30:28,620 --> 00:30:29,759
And then there was another
1040
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,719
correction in stocks starting in
1041
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:33,178
August or September.
1042
00:30:33,179 --> 00:30:35,179
In those three midterm years and
1043
00:30:35,180 --> 00:30:37,039
so the argument is that all
1044
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:38,739
right well if stocks go through this
1045
00:30:38,740 --> 00:30:40,879
similar correction like
1046
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,279
if you look at the end of
1047
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,199
2014, the end,
1048
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,159
of 2018 and then
1049
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,059
of course the end of 2022 you can
1050
00:30:49,060 --> 00:30:50,199
see that the stock market had these
1051
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:51,719
corrections if you get that one more
1052
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,179
time that likely corresponds to the
1053
00:30:53,180 --> 00:30:55,019
market cycle bottom for bitcoin
1054
00:30:55,020 --> 00:30:56,359
and then hopefully we can start
1055
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,099
thinking about getting retail
1056
00:30:58,100 --> 00:30:59,599
interest to come back but it's not
1057
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:00,719
going to come this year.
1058
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:01,720
I don't think.
1059
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,339
Yeah, unfortunately, I don't think
1060
00:31:04,340 --> 00:31:05,659
so either.
1061
00:31:05,660 --> 00:31:06,699
Obviously on your channel, you've
1062
00:31:06,700 --> 00:31:08,519
been doing a fair amount of videos
1063
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,179
on, like you said, precious metals,
1064
00:31:10,180 --> 00:31:12,979
gold. I'm curious if you have any
1065
00:31:12,980 --> 00:31:15,259
strong opinions or thoughts on
1066
00:31:15,260 --> 00:31:16,999
the overall AI trade, because I
1067
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,399
think there's been general consensus
1068
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,739
that the boom in
1069
00:31:20,740 --> 00:31:22,619
AI, the sector, and the
1070
00:31:22,620 --> 00:31:23,899
fundraising and everything has just
1071
00:31:23,900 --> 00:31:26,139
sucked a load of liquidity out of,
1072
00:31:26,140 --> 00:31:28,539
especially Bitcoin and the
1073
00:31:28,540 --> 00:31:29,639
broader crypto markets.
1074
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:30,619
Do you share that sentiment?
1075
00:31:30,620 --> 00:31:32,459
And do you think that that's also?
1076
00:31:32,460 --> 00:31:34,359
Some sort of a bubble waiting to
1077
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:35,059
pop.
1078
00:31:35,060 --> 00:31:36,899
I mean, to some degree, yeah, but
1079
00:31:36,900 --> 00:31:37,839
I mean no one knows when it's going
1080
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:38,979
to happen.
1081
00:31:38,980 --> 00:31:40,039
And, and, you know, the, the
1082
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:41,739
question we have to ask ourselves
1083
00:31:41,740 --> 00:31:43,919
is, is does AI lead
1084
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,739
to profitability quick
1085
00:31:45,740 --> 00:31:47,579
enough to justify the valuations,
1086
00:31:47,580 --> 00:31:48,439
right?
1087
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,399
Like, I mean with the internet,
1088
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:51,599
I means the internet we couldn't
1089
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:52,659
even be having this interview
1090
00:31:52,660 --> 00:31:53,939
without the internet.
1091
00:31:53,940 --> 00:31:55,819
Right. Um, it completely changed
1092
00:31:55,820 --> 00:31:57,359
the world, but yet we still had a
1093
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,459
bear market following the, following
1094
00:31:59,460 --> 00:32:00,779
the internet boom.
1095
00:32:00,780 --> 00:32:01,780
Thank you.
1096
00:32:02,030 --> 00:32:03,349
That doesn't mean that you have to
1097
00:32:03,350 --> 00:32:05,029
have one nearly as bad following the
1098
00:32:05,030 --> 00:32:06,129
AI boom, but there's also no
1099
00:32:06,130 --> 00:32:07,449
guarantee. I mean, how long is this
1100
00:32:07,450 --> 00:32:08,689
going to go on for?
1101
00:32:08,690 --> 00:32:10,309
When, when, when the dot com bubble
1102
00:32:10,310 --> 00:32:11,949
happens, they cut rates and then
1103
00:32:11,950 --> 00:32:13,269
they had to like raise rates like
1104
00:32:13,270 --> 00:32:15,169
seven times after
1105
00:32:15,170 --> 00:32:16,729
the initial rate hiking cycle, so
1106
00:32:16,730 --> 00:32:17,749
they had the initial right hiking
1107
00:32:17,750 --> 00:32:19,509
cycle, then they cut rate.
1108
00:32:19,510 --> 00:32:20,669
Eventually they raise rates again.
1109
00:32:20,670 --> 00:32:21,849
They had to raise rates, like a
1110
00:32:21,850 --> 00:32:22,989
hundred something basis points
1111
00:32:22,990 --> 00:32:25,109
again, seven times, um,
1112
00:32:25,110 --> 00:32:26,749
for it to actually pop the bubble.
1113
00:32:26,750 --> 00:32:28,749
So, you know, yeah, like
1114
00:32:28,750 --> 00:32:30,250
it'll probably eventually pop.
1115
00:32:31,370 --> 00:32:33,409
But I don't think it's gonna pop
1116
00:32:33,410 --> 00:32:35,489
before Open AI
1117
00:32:35,490 --> 00:32:38,429
has their IPO, you know
1118
00:32:38,430 --> 00:32:40,089
It's probably you know, you're
1119
00:32:40,090 --> 00:32:41,289
probably gonna have a correction in
1120
00:32:41,290 --> 00:32:42,709
stocks soon.
1121
00:32:42,710 --> 00:32:44,749
I would say 10 to 20 percent
1122
00:32:44,750 --> 00:32:46,969
would be my guess Probably
1123
00:32:46,970 --> 00:32:48,669
doesn't start until September.
1124
00:32:48,670 --> 00:32:50,069
Maybe it could start in August, but
1125
00:32:50,070 --> 00:32:51,289
probably not until September Maybe
1126
00:32:51,290 --> 00:32:53,589
around the next Fed meeting is
1127
00:32:53,590 --> 00:32:55,009
likely when I would if I did guess
1128
00:32:55,010 --> 00:32:56,010
as to when it would start
1129
00:32:57,530 --> 00:32:59,189
So yeah, I think technology
1130
00:32:59,190 --> 00:33:01,089
absolutely influences the cycles
1131
00:33:01,090 --> 00:33:03,029
because the reality is
1132
00:33:03,030 --> 00:33:05,109
crypto has
1133
00:33:05,110 --> 00:33:06,729
existed under the same macro
1134
00:33:06,730 --> 00:33:08,789
conditions that AI has
1135
00:33:08,790 --> 00:33:10,789
existed under, but yet AI
1136
00:33:10,790 --> 00:33:12,509
did fine, right?
1137
00:33:12,510 --> 00:33:14,569
Why did AI do fine?
1138
00:33:14,570 --> 00:33:16,689
Because everyone wants to use it,
1139
00:33:16,690 --> 00:33:17,930
right. I use AI,
1140
00:33:19,150 --> 00:33:21,489
I'm guessing you use AI.
1141
00:33:21,490 --> 00:33:23,369
I mean, my developers that I
1142
00:33:23,370 --> 00:33:25,489
have, I want them to use AI
1143
00:33:25,490 --> 00:33:27,299
to help them you know, develop the
1144
00:33:27,300 --> 00:33:28,759
website that we're working on.
1145
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,039
I want, I mean, AI makes
1146
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,739
our lives easier and
1147
00:33:33,740 --> 00:33:35,579
I spend money on
1148
00:33:35,580 --> 00:33:36,759
AI, right?
1149
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,619
Because I find it
1150
00:33:38,620 --> 00:33:40,559
to be an essential thing
1151
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,599
to, you know to grow
1152
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,639
a lot of these businesses and
1153
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,399
to help you figure out like how you
1154
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:47,899
can, you know what you can do to
1155
00:33:47,900 --> 00:33:48,919
improve.
1156
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:50,499
The issue is that like the average
1157
00:33:50,500 --> 00:33:52,339
person doesn't think they need
1158
00:33:52,340 --> 00:33:53,499
crypto, right.
1159
00:33:53,500 --> 00:33:56,589
Because if the average person...
1160
00:33:56,590 --> 00:33:59,089
Came to crypto in 2024 and
1161
00:33:59,090 --> 00:34:00,949
got rugs on a Solana meme coin.
1162
00:34:02,290 --> 00:34:03,329
Why? How are they going to think
1163
00:34:03,330 --> 00:34:04,949
they need crypto, right?
1164
00:34:04,950 --> 00:34:06,029
They're not. They're going to
1165
00:34:06,030 --> 00:34:08,149
they're going into equate that with
1166
00:34:08,150 --> 00:34:10,408
everything else in the industry and
1167
00:34:10,409 --> 00:34:12,729
think that it's all just a scam.
1168
00:34:12,730 --> 00:34:15,369
And there's nothing we can do
1169
00:34:15,370 --> 00:34:17,229
necessarily to,
1170
00:34:17,230 --> 00:34:19,229
you know, to to change
1171
00:34:19,230 --> 00:34:20,329
that in the short term.
1172
00:34:20,330 --> 00:34:21,908
It's just time like we have to go
1173
00:34:21,909 --> 00:34:23,928
through time where people kind
1174
00:34:23,929 --> 00:34:25,879
of are willing to move on
1175
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:26,939
from that stuff. But in the short
1176
00:34:26,940 --> 00:34:28,419
term, people are tired of being
1177
00:34:28,420 --> 00:34:29,879
rugged, they're tired of all that
1178
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:30,899
stuff, and you could argue the
1179
00:34:30,900 --> 00:34:32,718
reason why crypto has struggled way
1180
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,019
more than AI is because AI
1181
00:34:35,020 --> 00:34:37,459
was giving the average person
1182
00:34:37,460 --> 00:34:39,779
a reason to
1183
00:34:39,780 --> 00:34:41,718
want it. Whereas I feel like crypto
1184
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,099
hasn't really given people that
1185
00:34:43,100 --> 00:34:44,099
reason.
1186
00:34:44,100 --> 00:34:45,359
The thing that people were chasing
1187
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,218
were just things that enrich
1188
00:34:47,219 --> 00:34:48,599
the founders, right?
1189
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:49,959
Like just meme coins and stuff.
1190
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:51,119
That just enriches the founders.
1191
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:52,009
It does nothing.
1192
00:34:52,010 --> 00:34:53,388
For the person buying it except
1193
00:34:53,389 --> 00:34:55,009
makes them lose all their money.
1194
00:34:56,830 --> 00:34:59,369
Yeah, I mean, I have my fundamental
1195
00:34:59,370 --> 00:35:00,849
qualms with meme coins.
1196
00:35:00,850 --> 00:35:03,629
You know, like I enjoy the
1197
00:35:03,630 --> 00:35:05,609
influence of people like Ansem, but
1198
00:35:05,610 --> 00:35:07,449
I genuinely, you know, I
1199
00:35:07,450 --> 00:35:09,529
don't want to
1200
00:35:09,530 --> 00:35:11,509
bluff people or, you
1201
00:35:11,510 --> 00:35:12,829
know say things that just aren't
1202
00:35:12,830 --> 00:35:13,969
true. And I mean there's no
1203
00:35:13,970 --> 00:35:15,889
fundamental value in these things as
1204
00:35:15,890 --> 00:35:17,869
much as you can talk about attention
1205
00:35:17,870 --> 00:35:19,609
economies and bringing people into
1206
00:35:19,610 --> 00:35:20,969
the industry, that kind of thing.
1207
00:35:20,970 --> 00:35:23,029
I think it's like
1208
00:35:23,030 --> 00:35:25,289
a zero-sum game, and...
1209
00:35:25,290 --> 00:35:27,209
They will trade to zero
1210
00:35:27,210 --> 00:35:29,049
eventually, like nothing's gonna
1211
00:35:29,050 --> 00:35:31,069
keep these tokens alive in value.
1212
00:35:31,070 --> 00:35:31,610
Unfortunately. And eventually.
1213
00:35:31,611 --> 00:35:32,779
Right and eventually and eventually
1214
00:35:32,780 --> 00:35:34,679
you run out of people to sell this
1215
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,819
idea too right like if like
1216
00:35:36,820 --> 00:35:38,279
there's only so many times you can
1217
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,179
rug people before they are like
1218
00:35:40,180 --> 00:35:41,979
you know what maybe i don't want to
1219
00:35:41,980 --> 00:35:43,899
be here right and maybe i
1220
00:35:43,900 --> 00:35:45,119
dont want to keep investing in this
1221
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:46,819
maybe i would be better off just
1222
00:35:46,820 --> 00:35:48,439
putting it in the stock market right
1223
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,499
so there's just only so much times
1224
00:35:50,500 --> 00:35:52,199
and i i like i have no problem
1225
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:53,419
saying it i think everyone who's
1226
00:35:53,420 --> 00:35:55,319
promoting meme coins has done
1227
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:56,499
a complete as a service to the
1228
00:35:56,500 --> 00:35:57,699
industry.
1229
00:35:57,700 --> 00:35:59,519
Meme coins do not bring people to
1230
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:00,899
bitcoin in my opinion, they
1231
00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:02,459
basically push people away from the
1232
00:36:02,460 --> 00:36:03,719
industry because a lot of people
1233
00:36:03,720 --> 00:36:05,819
actually join crypto because
1234
00:36:05,820 --> 00:36:07,859
of during a bitcoin parabolic rally
1235
00:36:07,860 --> 00:36:09,379
that if you look at all the major
1236
00:36:09,380 --> 00:36:11,379
social interest spikes in the past,
1237
00:36:11,380 --> 00:36:13,439
it was during parabolic rallies
1238
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,359
by bitcoin and then
1239
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,359
what happens is that people come
1240
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,359
in and then everyone promotes
1241
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,359
like all these other coins and
1242
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:22,319
then so people then start buying
1243
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:23,859
that and then we have a bitcoin bear
1244
00:36:23,860 --> 00:36:25,879
market but the reality
1245
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,819
is that A lot of people
1246
00:36:27,820 --> 00:36:29,659
lose a lot of money in
1247
00:36:29,660 --> 00:36:31,259
the meme coin market, and then they
1248
00:36:31,260 --> 00:36:32,999
don't then go to Bitcoin, they just
1249
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:33,999
leave.
1250
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:35,839
So I would say as an industry,
1251
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:36,619
we just need to get our act
1252
00:36:36,620 --> 00:36:38,299
together. We need to focus on what
1253
00:36:38,300 --> 00:36:40,279
actually matters and start
1254
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:41,599
and continue, we've already been
1255
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,499
doing it, but continue to rebuke the
1256
00:36:43,500 --> 00:36:45,579
stuff that does not and
1257
00:36:45,580 --> 00:36:47,799
to not lift up the influencers
1258
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,039
who do like
1259
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:50,879
promote that stuff.
1260
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:51,979
Because the people that promote
1261
00:36:51,980 --> 00:36:53,219
that, they're just leading people
1262
00:36:53,220 --> 00:36:55,119
astray, you know, Maybe in the short
1263
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:56,289
term.
1264
00:36:56,290 --> 00:36:57,589
You could have bounces in the market
1265
00:36:57,590 --> 00:36:58,569
that make those people feel like
1266
00:36:58,570 --> 00:37:00,129
they did a good thing by buying that
1267
00:37:00,130 --> 00:37:01,269
that stuff.
1268
00:37:01,270 --> 00:37:03,229
But a year or two later,
1269
00:37:03,230 --> 00:37:04,789
they look back and like, why did I
1270
00:37:04,790 --> 00:37:05,569
buy that?
1271
00:37:05,570 --> 00:37:07,509
Right. And so I think
1272
00:37:07,510 --> 00:37:09,829
the industry needs to rebuke
1273
00:37:09,830 --> 00:37:11,749
that stuff and to lift up the people
1274
00:37:11,750 --> 00:37:12,649
that are doing the right thing. Like
you
1275
00:37:12,650 --> 00:37:14,069
mentioned earlier, right.
1276
00:37:14,070 --> 00:37:15,989
There was a team going and looking
1277
00:37:15,990 --> 00:37:17,849
at at vulnerabilities in
1278
00:37:17,850 --> 00:37:18,719
in the industry.
1279
00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:20,259
Right? Like we should the industry
1280
00:37:20,260 --> 00:37:22,359
should be more so focused on that.
1281
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:23,939
Like, hey, like, lift these guys up,
1282
00:37:23,940 --> 00:37:25,719
like lift the guys up that are
1283
00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:27,579
trying to improve the industry
1284
00:37:27,580 --> 00:37:28,819
for everyone else.
1285
00:37:28,820 --> 00:37:30,839
Don't lift the guy's up that
1286
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:32,799
are just trying to like, you
1287
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:33,800
know,
1288
00:37:34,700 --> 00:37:36,319
you know that are just doing it.
1289
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,179
Yeah, they're just doing pump
1290
00:37:38,180 --> 00:37:39,219
and dumps. They're doing it for
1291
00:37:39,220 --> 00:37:40,419
attention. They're doing it further
1292
00:37:40,420 --> 00:37:42,099
ego, whatever.
1293
00:37:42,100 --> 00:37:43,339
Don't lift those guys up.
1294
00:37:43,340 --> 00:37:46,019
And I think the the market.
1295
00:37:46,020 --> 00:37:47,919
Is is is we're kind of at the
1296
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:49,879
point where the market is rebuking
1297
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,879
all this other stuff but for
1298
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,239
the new people that join like don't
1299
00:37:53,240 --> 00:37:54,439
fall into that stuff because you
1300
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,419
fall into it you're stuck there for
1301
00:37:56,420 --> 00:37:57,659
probably at least one to two years
1302
00:37:57,660 --> 00:37:59,039
before you come to your senses and
1303
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:00,040
come out of it
1304
00:38:00,670 --> 00:38:01,629
Yeah, exactly.
1305
00:38:01,630 --> 00:38:03,689
I mean, I just put this on my
1306
00:38:03,690 --> 00:38:05,549
ex profile for anyone that
1307
00:38:05,550 --> 00:38:06,949
wants to go and see and look back at
1308
00:38:06,950 --> 00:38:08,829
it at gaza underscore
1309
00:38:08,830 --> 00:38:10,429
jinx on ex if you're watching us on
1310
00:38:10,430 --> 00:38:12,609
Twitter and you don't follow me.
1311
00:38:12,610 --> 00:38:14,489
Like two, three years ago,
1312
00:38:14,490 --> 00:38:16,289
I was at the World Economic Forum in
1313
00:38:16,290 --> 00:38:18,129
Davos and it was like the first time
1314
00:38:18,130 --> 00:38:20,529
that they had a panel on crypto.
1315
00:38:20,530 --> 00:38:21,709
Brian Armstrong was on it, Anthony
1316
00:38:21,710 --> 00:38:22,829
Scaramucci,
1317
00:38:24,050 --> 00:38:26,269
Denal Dixon from Stellar,
1318
00:38:26,270 --> 00:38:27,589
Jenny Johnson from Franklin
1319
00:38:27,590 --> 00:38:28,669
Templeton as well and then South
1320
00:38:28,670 --> 00:38:30,289
Africa's Reserve Bank Governor.
1321
00:38:30,290 --> 00:38:32,349
And it was like two days after Trump
1322
00:38:32,350 --> 00:38:33,509
had launched the meme coin.
1323
00:38:33,510 --> 00:38:35,169
And just as he was about to be, you
1324
00:38:35,170 --> 00:38:37,029
know, inaugurated and I managed to
1325
00:38:37,030 --> 00:38:38,389
ask a question to Brian from the
1326
00:38:38,390 --> 00:38:39,689
floor, kind of saying, you know,
1327
00:38:39,690 --> 00:38:40,809
like Trump's gone and launched this
1328
00:38:40,810 --> 00:38:42,809
meme coin is he's diverted all
1329
00:38:42,810 --> 00:38:44,289
this capital and attention away from
1330
00:38:44,290 --> 00:38:45,989
that. Meanwhile, like people that
1331
00:38:45,990 --> 00:38:47,129
actually care about the industry
1332
00:38:47,130 --> 00:38:48,789
were pushing so hard for a Bitcoin
1333
00:38:48,790 --> 00:38:50,269
reserve. Do you think it undermines
1334
00:38:50,270 --> 00:38:51,289
it?
1335
00:38:51,290 --> 00:38:52,729
And, uh, Brian gave a really
1336
00:38:52,730 --> 00:38:54,609
eloquent response, but he didn't
1337
00:38:54,610 --> 00:38:56,589
quite call out like
1338
00:38:56,590 --> 00:38:58,269
what I was also trying to get him to
1339
00:38:58,270 --> 00:38:59,229
call out. And like.
1340
00:38:59,230 --> 00:39:00,669
Know Trump's meme coin, it's going
1341
00:39:00,670 --> 00:39:02,009
to be a black mark on the industry
1342
00:39:02,010 --> 00:39:03,829
and you can already see you know the
1343
00:39:03,830 --> 00:39:05,169
sharks are circling about this
1344
00:39:05,170 --> 00:39:06,749
already again you know like big
1345
00:39:06,750 --> 00:39:08,109
exposes I think are being written
1346
00:39:08,110 --> 00:39:09,929
and the amount of losses
1347
00:39:09,930 --> 00:39:11,989
that you know people
1348
00:39:11,990 --> 00:39:13,869
incurred by buying Trump's meme coin
1349
00:39:13,870 --> 00:39:14,789
thinking they were going to get rich
1350
00:39:14,790 --> 00:39:15,119
from it.
1351
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:16,679
Isn't it down like 90 something
1352
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:17,739
percent now?
1353
00:39:17,740 --> 00:39:19,519
I mean, it's like, and the Melania
1354
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,419
coin too. I mean like we don't, the
1355
00:39:21,420 --> 00:39:22,639
industry doesn't need to pretend
1356
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:23,879
like those things were good things.
1357
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,599
They were not, they were simply cash
1358
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:26,719
grabs. That's all they were.
1359
00:39:27,899 --> 00:39:29,239
And that's all the ever were.
1360
00:39:29,240 --> 00:39:30,479
I mean they were never going to ever
1361
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,039
be anything other than that.
1362
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:33,959
And so, you know, I guess it's
1363
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:35,479
hard like, you know, if you have a
1364
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:36,839
business and that business can be
1365
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,339
very dependent on, you know,
1366
00:39:39,340 --> 00:39:41,279
political favoring and whatnot.
1367
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:42,659
So like I guess I'm not going to sit
1368
00:39:42,660 --> 00:39:43,679
there and be like, well, if I'd been
1369
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:44,589
up there I would have.
1370
00:39:44,590 --> 00:39:46,529
Says something different, but you
1371
00:39:46,530 --> 00:39:48,509
know, like that stuff is launching
1372
00:39:48,510 --> 00:39:50,069
meme coins and Trump wasn't even the
1373
00:39:50,070 --> 00:39:51,589
only president that launched one.
1374
00:39:51,590 --> 00:39:52,469
Right. Like there were other ones
1375
00:39:52,470 --> 00:39:53,969
that did as well.
1376
00:39:53,970 --> 00:39:55,209
You know what? I feel like it did.
1377
00:39:55,210 --> 00:39:57,109
I feel like it kind of exposed the
1378
00:39:57,110 --> 00:39:58,929
industry for what it had become.
1379
00:39:58,930 --> 00:39:59,729
And it was.
1380
00:39:59,730 --> 00:40:01,809
And that
1381
00:40:01,810 --> 00:40:03,449
essentially marked the top.
1382
00:40:03,450 --> 00:40:05,009
I mean, yes, Bitcoin went a little
1383
00:40:05,010 --> 00:40:06,969
bit higher in Q4, like it normally
1384
00:40:06,970 --> 00:40:07,970
does.
1385
00:40:08,930 --> 00:40:10,570
But that essentially marked the top.
1386
00:40:11,710 --> 00:40:14,149
Bitcoin went to 109 on inauguration
1387
00:40:14,150 --> 00:40:16,479
day. And it only ever went to 126
1388
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:17,699
after that.
1389
00:40:17,700 --> 00:40:19,659
So in fact, like the day that Gary
1390
00:40:19,660 --> 00:40:21,959
Gensler resigned and
1391
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:23,279
the day the Trump took office,
1392
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:24,599
that's basically when the industry
1393
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:25,600
topped.
1394
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:27,439
So again, this is like one of those
1395
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,839
things where the
1396
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:31,499
things that people think are bullish
1397
00:40:31,500 --> 00:40:33,699
are not always bullish.
1398
00:40:33,700 --> 00:40:35,299
And the things people think are
1399
00:40:35,300 --> 00:40:36,359
bearish are not bearish.
1400
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,099
For instance, now we're
1401
00:40:39,100 --> 00:40:41,179
going into midterms, right?
1402
00:40:41,180 --> 00:40:42,520
And a lot of people are like, I
1403
00:40:42,521 --> 00:40:44,879
don't know, like, if the, uh...
1404
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,799
If the Republicans lose the House or
1405
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,119
the Senate, like, you know, the
1406
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:49,320
crypto industry is screwed.
1407
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:51,549
But.
1408
00:40:51,550 --> 00:40:53,489
What if the market might not think
1409
00:40:53,490 --> 00:40:54,709
that? The market might think, you
1410
00:40:54,710 --> 00:40:56,689
know what, now that we have
1411
00:40:56,690 --> 00:40:57,909
maybe a little bit more checks and
1412
00:40:57,910 --> 00:40:59,010
balances going on,
1413
00:41:00,190 --> 00:41:01,949
perhaps the crypto industry isn't
1414
00:41:01,950 --> 00:41:03,569
going to just exist to rug people,
1415
00:41:03,570 --> 00:41:05,429
right? And so I
1416
00:41:05,430 --> 00:41:08,129
would say that like, be open-minded.
1417
00:41:08,130 --> 00:41:09,709
Any investor will tell you it makes
1418
00:41:09,710 --> 00:41:12,189
sense to be invested through
1419
00:41:12,190 --> 00:41:14,149
both Republican and
1420
00:41:14,150 --> 00:41:15,409
Democratic presidents, at least in
1421
00:41:15,410 --> 00:41:16,889
the stock market long-term, right.
1422
00:41:16,890 --> 00:41:19,189
Like if you stay out of the market,
1423
00:41:19,190 --> 00:41:21,109
because
1424
00:41:21,110 --> 00:41:23,149
you know, you don't like who's
1425
00:41:23,150 --> 00:41:24,569
in office, like you're probably
1426
00:41:24,570 --> 00:41:26,529
going to miss out on some gains,
1427
00:41:26,530 --> 00:41:28,389
right, eventually.
1428
00:41:28,390 --> 00:41:29,709
So think about that with Bitcoin.
1429
00:41:29,710 --> 00:41:31,069
I know people might be scared of
1430
00:41:31,070 --> 00:41:33,469
like, what happens if the
1431
00:41:33,470 --> 00:41:35,829
political who's-in-power
1432
00:41:35,830 --> 00:41:37,789
changes, but
1433
00:41:37,790 --> 00:41:39,929
Bitcoin did fine under
1434
00:41:39,930 --> 00:41:41,909
Obama and it did fine
1435
00:41:41,910 --> 00:41:44,029
in Trump's first term, right?
1436
00:41:44,030 --> 00:41:45,969
So Democratic president, Republican
1437
00:41:45,970 --> 00:41:47,529
president, Bitcoin did find.
1438
00:41:47,530 --> 00:41:49,349
It was actually
1439
00:41:49,350 --> 00:41:51,259
in... You know, a really remarkable
1440
00:41:51,260 --> 00:41:53,339
chart is...
1441
00:41:53,340 --> 00:41:54,379
They did.
1442
00:41:54,380 --> 00:41:55,380
What?
1443
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:56,519
I said, let's see it.
1444
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,339
Yeah, look at this chart.
1445
00:41:58,340 --> 00:42:00,619
This is the presidential return
1446
00:42:00,620 --> 00:42:02,839
paths for for
1447
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,219
Bitcoin and I want to show you
1448
00:42:05,220 --> 00:42:07,919
look at um
1449
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,199
Okay, look, at barack obama
1450
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,339
and trump Trump's
1451
00:42:12,340 --> 00:42:13,939
first term bitcoin did amazingly
1452
00:42:13,940 --> 00:42:15,919
well and by the end of those two
1453
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:17,639
terms bitcoin basically was up about
1454
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,499
the same amount Okay, so it
1455
00:42:19,500 --> 00:42:21,019
didn't matter if you were invested
1456
00:42:21,020 --> 00:42:22,899
in bitcoin while obama was in office
1457
00:42:22,900 --> 00:42:24,619
or while trump was in Office bitcoin
1458
00:42:24,620 --> 00:42:26,949
did very very well Now look
1459
00:42:26,950 --> 00:42:29,109
at Biden and
1460
00:42:29,110 --> 00:42:30,949
Donald Trump's second term.
1461
00:42:30,950 --> 00:42:33,969
As measured from Inauguration Day,
1462
00:42:33,970 --> 00:42:35,789
Bitcoin is at the same level
1463
00:42:35,790 --> 00:42:37,829
that was at under Biden's term at
1464
00:42:37,830 --> 00:42:39,969
this exact same time,
1465
00:42:39,970 --> 00:42:40,949
which is remarkable.
1466
00:42:40,950 --> 00:42:43,509
So I mean, it shows you that Bitcoin
1467
00:42:43,510 --> 00:42:45,409
doesn't exist to
1468
00:42:45,410 --> 00:42:47,129
serve either political party.
1469
00:42:47,130 --> 00:42:49,209
It's done really well under
1470
00:42:49,210 --> 00:42:50,529
both political parties, and it's
1471
00:42:50,530 --> 00:42:51,929
done really poorly under both
1472
00:42:51,930 --> 00:42:53,369
political parties, but you could
1473
00:42:53,370 --> 00:42:55,229
argue that Like Bitcoin is
1474
00:42:55,230 --> 00:42:56,249
outside of that.
1475
00:42:56,250 --> 00:42:57,889
And so I wouldn't base decisions
1476
00:42:57,890 --> 00:42:59,929
either on who's in power,
1477
00:42:59,930 --> 00:43:01,789
right? Because it's dependent
1478
00:43:01,790 --> 00:43:03,629
on so much more than who holds
1479
00:43:03,630 --> 00:43:05,749
office. And arguably,
1480
00:43:05,750 --> 00:43:07,749
the meme coin launches by
1481
00:43:07,750 --> 00:43:09,209
the presidents essentially took
1482
00:43:09,210 --> 00:43:11,189
whatever win we had out from the
1483
00:43:11,190 --> 00:43:12,569
sales of the industry in the last
1484
00:43:12,570 --> 00:43:13,729
cycle.
1485
00:43:13,730 --> 00:43:15,649
Yeah, yeah, sadly, sadly
1486
00:43:15,650 --> 00:43:17,069
true. And I mean, like just an
1487
00:43:17,070 --> 00:43:18,889
indic, like indicative
1488
00:43:18,890 --> 00:43:20,489
of the influence of politics.
1489
00:43:20,490 --> 00:43:22,549
And it's, you know, it's it's
1490
00:43:22,550 --> 00:43:23,569
largely self serving.
1491
00:43:23,570 --> 00:43:24,849
I mean I'm not a politician, so I
1492
00:43:24,850 --> 00:43:27,329
will I will pull my daggers out and
1493
00:43:27,330 --> 00:43:28,189
throw them at people.
1494
00:43:28,190 --> 00:43:30,309
But yeah, I don't love politicians
1495
00:43:30,310 --> 00:43:31,569
for this thing.
1496
00:43:31,570 --> 00:43:32,769
Look, Ben, we've had you on for a
1497
00:43:32,770 --> 00:43:34,269
long time, I think just to wrap up
1498
00:43:34,270 --> 00:43:35,129
the show.
1499
00:43:35,130 --> 00:43:36,889
I wanted to get a sense of kind of
1500
00:43:36,890 --> 00:43:38,729
your your outlook going forward.
1501
00:43:38,730 --> 00:43:39,829
We've seen so many people in the
1502
00:43:39,830 --> 00:43:41,849
industry kind pivot to AI because.
1503
00:43:41,850 --> 00:43:43,249
I mean, let's be honest, it's an
1504
00:43:43,250 --> 00:43:44,709
exciting industry.
1505
00:43:44,710 --> 00:43:46,329
If you've played around with any of
1506
00:43:46,330 --> 00:43:48,269
the frontier models, depending on
1507
00:43:48,270 --> 00:43:50,169
what you prefer using, the amount
1508
00:43:50,170 --> 00:43:51,969
of things a layman can do, you can
1509
00:43:51,970 --> 00:43:53,269
launch websites, you can build
1510
00:43:53,270 --> 00:43:54,270
applications.
1511
00:43:55,070 --> 00:43:57,049
You can do pretty much
1512
00:43:57,050 --> 00:43:58,949
anything you set your mind to,
1513
00:43:58,950 --> 00:44:00,709
and AI tools can help you do that.
1514
00:44:00,710 --> 00:44:01,769
A lot of people are branching out
1515
00:44:01,770 --> 00:44:03,409
into creating content on that.
1516
00:44:03,410 --> 00:44:04,569
Are you interested in doing this
1517
00:44:04,570 --> 00:44:05,729
kind of thing, or are you still very
1518
00:44:05,730 --> 00:44:07,509
much sticking in your lane, doing
1519
00:44:07,510 --> 00:44:08,459
what you're doing?
1520
00:44:08,460 --> 00:44:10,199
I mean, I use AI all the time.
1521
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,079
I mean like, every day I use it.
1522
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,179
Like, you know, I invest in AI.
1523
00:44:15,180 --> 00:44:16,999
I invest a lot in like
1524
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,219
the stock market and I try,
1525
00:44:19,220 --> 00:44:20,779
I mean if you're invested in the
1526
00:44:20,780 --> 00:44:22,679
stock market, right, the S&P, the
1527
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,639
NASDAQ, you're
1528
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:25,879
you're, you are invested in AI,
1529
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:27,239
right? Because a lot of these things
1530
00:44:27,240 --> 00:44:29,059
are market cap weighted.
1531
00:44:29,060 --> 00:44:30,979
And so you're basically, you
1532
00:44:30,980 --> 00:44:32,299
own NVIDIA, right?
1533
00:44:32,300 --> 00:44:34,209
You own Google and...
1534
00:44:34,210 --> 00:44:35,969
And all these companies, Microsoft,
1535
00:44:35,970 --> 00:44:37,549
you own these companies that are
1536
00:44:37,550 --> 00:44:40,049
heavily doing stuff in AI.
1537
00:44:40,050 --> 00:44:41,889
So yeah, like I've
1538
00:44:41,890 --> 00:44:43,849
absolutely ridden the AI
1539
00:44:43,850 --> 00:44:44,850
wave.
1540
00:44:45,890 --> 00:44:47,529
I talk about it some, I mean, I just
1541
00:44:47,530 --> 00:44:48,689
made a video the other day on the
1542
00:44:48,690 --> 00:44:50,789
stock market and I talk
1543
00:44:50,790 --> 00:44:52,669
a little bit about it.
1544
00:44:52,670 --> 00:44:54,429
But yeah, I as I've said before,
1545
00:44:54,430 --> 00:44:56,469
never let a good bubble go to waste.
1546
00:44:56,470 --> 00:44:57,649
I mean there's always gonna be
1547
00:44:57,650 --> 00:44:59,089
bubbles, don't let them go to ways,
1548
00:44:59,090 --> 00:45:01,169
make money and then look
1549
00:45:01,170 --> 00:45:02,149
for the next one, right?
1550
00:45:02,150 --> 00:45:03,150
Look for the the next. Um.
1551
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,179
So, yeah, I mean, I think that there
1552
00:45:06,180 --> 00:45:07,939
has been a big pivot and it's OK to
1553
00:45:07,940 --> 00:45:09,899
pivot. I mean businesses have
1554
00:45:09,900 --> 00:45:10,879
to pivot all the time.
1555
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:12,099
That doesn't mean that crypto is
1556
00:45:12,100 --> 00:45:13,239
going to die.
1557
00:45:13,240 --> 00:45:14,939
It just means that, you know, for
1558
00:45:14,940 --> 00:45:16,799
now, AI, especially
1559
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:18,259
for the miners, AI is more
1560
00:45:18,260 --> 00:45:20,139
profitable and you can't blame them
1561
00:45:20,140 --> 00:45:21,459
for for doing what's more
1562
00:45:21,460 --> 00:45:22,599
profitable. Everyone would probably
1563
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:23,699
make the same decision if they were
1564
00:45:23,700 --> 00:45:24,700
in their shoes.
1565
00:45:25,310 --> 00:45:26,409
Yeah, for sure.
1566
00:45:26,410 --> 00:45:27,589
Ben, thanks so much for joining us
1567
00:45:27,590 --> 00:45:28,889
today. I really, really love this
1568
00:45:28,890 --> 00:45:30,609
conversation. I hope you will agree
1569
00:45:30,610 --> 00:45:32,289
to come back sometime soon.
1570
00:45:32,290 --> 00:45:34,029
Hopefully when things get super
1571
00:45:34,030 --> 00:45:35,329
exciting or super scary in the
1572
00:45:35,330 --> 00:45:37,309
market, we can get you on to try and
1573
00:45:37,310 --> 00:45:38,309
break them down. And if you don't
1574
00:45:38,310 --> 00:45:40,289
already, go ahead and follow Ben on
1575
00:45:40,290 --> 00:45:42,949
X. It's Benjamin Cowan and then
1576
00:45:42,950 --> 00:45:44,869
at ITC underscore crypto if
1577
00:45:44,870 --> 00:45:46,349
you want to follow Into the
1578
00:45:46,350 --> 00:45:47,129
Cryptoverse as well.
1579
00:45:47,130 --> 00:45:48,849
And of course, if you don't, already
1580
00:45:48,850 --> 00:45:49,949
go and check out their YouTube
1581
00:45:49,950 --> 00:45:51,530
channel Into the crypto verse.
1582
00:45:52,919 --> 00:45:54,299
Subscribe there. If you're watching
1583
00:45:54,300 --> 00:45:55,839
the starting block today on YouTube,
1584
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,839
please subscribe to the channel Or
1585
00:45:57,840 --> 00:45:59,699
if you're, watching us on x like and
1586
00:45:59,700 --> 00:46:00,499
read to you. We've got a load of
1587
00:46:00,500 --> 00:46:01,839
viewers on the show today So a big
1588
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:03,179
shout out to you ben.
1589
00:46:03,180 --> 00:46:04,639
Thanks so much for joining us Yeah,
1590
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:05,779
thanks harming pleasure to be here.
1591
00:46:05,780 --> 00:46:06,659
I look forward to being here in the
1592
00:46:06,660 --> 00:46:08,479
future Awesome,
1593
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:09,879
uh, we will be back with the show
1594
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:11,719
tomorrow. We got a couple of big
1595
00:46:11,720 --> 00:46:13,559
guests coming up Um, I can
1596
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,199
tell you that we're gonna have cz on
1597
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:16,919
the Show again on thursday for a big
1598
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:17,959
announcement.
1599
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:19,519
Uh, it has something very
1600
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:20,919
interesting to do with the united
1601
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:22,519
states That's all I'm going to say.
1602
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:24,419
So set a reminder on your calendar.
1603
00:46:24,420 --> 00:46:25,659
We're gonna be broadcasting at 10
1604
00:46:25,660 --> 00:46:27,539
a.m. Eastern time on Thursday.
1605
00:46:27,540 --> 00:46:29,439
We've got CZ on the show for a big
1606
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:30,439
announcement.
1607
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:31,879
Don't miss it, but we will be back
1608
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:32,659
tomorrow.
1609
00:46:32,660 --> 00:46:34,359
Usual time, come and join us.
1610
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:35,760
Until then, we'll see you later.
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:08,639
Bye! Welcome back to The Starting
2
00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:10,519
Block, and good morning to you,
3
00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:12,039
wherever you're joining us from this
4
00:00:12,040 --> 00:00:13,799
afternoon or this morning.
5
00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,079
We are starting the show a little
6
00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:16,739
bit later today because we managed
7
00:00:16,740 --> 00:00:18,759
to get Ben Cowan on the show.
8
00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:19,999
He is waiting for us in the
9
00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:21,379
background. We're gonna run through
10
00:00:21,380 --> 00:00:23,239
the usual format of the
11
00:00:23,240 --> 00:00:24,259
show, if you're here for the first
12
00:00:24,260 --> 00:00:26,059
time, welcome to The starting Block.
13
00:00:26,060 --> 00:00:27,199
My name is Gareth Jenkinson, I'm
14
00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:28,299
your host and head of multimedia
15
00:00:28,300 --> 00:00:30,279
here at The Block.
16
00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:31,959
If it is your first time here, let
17
00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:33,119
me give you a quick rundown of how
18
00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:33,919
we usually do things.
19
00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:35,279
We start off with The Block
20
00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,958
briefing, Which is our
21
00:00:37,959 --> 00:00:39,959
highlight of the top news stories in
22
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:41,859
the last 24 hours that you might
23
00:00:41,860 --> 00:00:43,879
have missed from the Blox News team.
24
00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:45,359
So I'll be running down all the big
25
00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:47,199
stories that you need to know
26
00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:48,419
about. Then we usually have a
27
00:00:48,420 --> 00:00:50,119
markets update, but we did quite an
28
00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:51,719
in-depth one yesterday.
29
00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:53,359
So we'll be skipping that today to
30
00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:55,679
jump into an in depth,
31
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,519
full on market talk
32
00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,339
with Benjamin Cowan from Into the
33
00:00:59,340 --> 00:01:00,459
Cryptoverse. So really looking
34
00:01:00,460 --> 00:01:01,639
forward to that.
35
00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:02,639
But first things first, We'll give
36
00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:03,919
you a quick rundown of the news and
37
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:05,609
let's. Jump straight into the
38
00:01:05,610 --> 00:01:06,469
headlines today.
39
00:01:06,470 --> 00:01:07,829
Bitcoin's under pressure this
40
00:01:07,830 --> 00:01:10,469
morning, sliding towards $64,000
41
00:01:10,470 --> 00:01:12,289
down more than 1%
42
00:01:12,290 --> 00:01:13,989
after four failed attempts to break
43
00:01:13,990 --> 00:01:16,129
above the 65,000 mark.
44
00:01:16,130 --> 00:01:17,469
ETH is taking it harder, or for
45
00:01:17,470 --> 00:01:20,509
almost 2% to around 88,000,
46
00:01:20,510 --> 00:01:21,549
88.
47
00:01:21,550 --> 00:01:23,149
And the whole market's holding its
48
00:01:23,150 --> 00:01:24,749
breath for Wednesday's US inflation
49
00:01:24,750 --> 00:01:26,789
report, the first major read since
50
00:01:26,790 --> 00:01:27,589
last week.
51
00:01:27,590 --> 00:01:29,269
Shock, jobs, miss, reshuffled
52
00:01:29,270 --> 00:01:31,369
September 8 expectations.
53
00:01:31,370 --> 00:01:33,129
Next shows Ilya Kalchev.
54
00:01:33,130 --> 00:01:35,209
Says what stands to put out isn't
55
00:01:35,210 --> 00:01:36,489
the failure to hold, but the
56
00:01:36,490 --> 00:01:38,609
character of the stall itself.
57
00:01:38,610 --> 00:01:40,669
So all eyes are now on that
58
00:01:40,670 --> 00:01:42,109
CPI print.
59
00:01:42,110 --> 00:01:43,669
Our next headline this morning, Riot
60
00:01:43,670 --> 00:01:45,529
platforms jumped 25%
61
00:01:45,530 --> 00:01:47,829
after hours on a blockbuster
62
00:01:47,830 --> 00:01:48,929
AI deal.
63
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The Bitcoin miner signed a 20-year
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data center lease worth roughly $9.1
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billion in total contract revenue,
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covering 191 megawatts of
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capacity at its Rockdale, Texas
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campus. Running through 2048.
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Two five-year extensions could push
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that value to 16.1
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billion.
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Ryan, Riot lined up a
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$573 million financing
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facility from Morgan Stanley
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to get started.
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The company didn't name the tenant,
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but Bloomberg reports it's
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Anthropic, the AI lab behind
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Claude, another mining giant leading
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hard into the AI computer.
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There was a lot of chatter
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internally at the block around this
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story. Obviously, Riot.
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Household name in the Bitcoin mining
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space now pivoting hard,
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making a lot of money from the
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AI boom.
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Our next headline, trading platform
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eToro is buying US brokerage
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trade zero in a deal with up
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to $231 million
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cash plus up to two and a half
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million newly issued shares.
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Trade zero founded in 2015 caters
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to active traders and pulled in
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about $80 million in revenue over
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the past year at 81%
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gross margins.
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EToro expects the deal to close
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in the first half of 2027,
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pending regulators and to lift its
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adjusted earnings in its first full
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year. CEO Yoni Assia
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calls it an important step in
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building the company's US business
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and a faster path to new
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products.
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Then Coinbase is rolling out
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derivatives for professional
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investors in the UK, part of its
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push towards what it calls an
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everything exchange.
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On the menu here is perpetuals,
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dated futures and crypto options.
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More than 170 contracts spanning
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crypto, commodities, equities, and
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foreign exchange.
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Perpetuals trade around the clock
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with leverage up to 50 times,
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dated futures up to 20.
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Options stay crypto only with
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calls and puts and multi-leg
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strategies.
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Access rolls out to eligible UK
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clients over the coming weeks.
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It follows Coinbase's new MFID
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license, which clears the way to
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offer these contracts.
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Then our next story, the crypto
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industry lost roughly $110
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million to hacks in July, according
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to security platform, ImmunFi.
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On the brighter side, confirmed and
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paid bug bounty reports climbed 18%,
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with researchers earning $2.3
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million for valid bugs
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that they found.
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Immunfi also took aim at traditional
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audits, its review of nearly 1,200
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tier one audits found a medium of
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zero critical or high severity bugs.
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While its own audit competition
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surfaced an average of 6.2
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serious bugs per engagement.
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And they found them cheaper too,
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about $6,500
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per critical bug
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versus 66,000
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in a private audit.
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And lastly, here's an unusual one.
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Michael Saylor's strategy actually
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sold some Bitcoin.
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The treasury giant offloaded 1,690
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Bitcoin for around $108.6
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million between August.
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Third and the ninth at
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an average price near $64,200.
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That trims its stacks to 840,000.
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Bitcoin's still a massive pile,
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still worth roughly $54.7
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billion.
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Strategy also sold 6.5 million
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shares for $653
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million using the proceeds to
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buy back preferred stock and top
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up its dollar reserve to
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$4.65 billion.
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Its holdings remain around 4%
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of all Bitcoin.
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But carry some $8.7 billion
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in paper losses.
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That's it for the block briefing
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this morning or afternoon, of
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course, wherever you're joining us
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from. We're gonna jump straight into
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the hot seat today and it's a great
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pleasure to welcome Ben Cowan
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to the show.
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If you've been in crypto a
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while, you will know Ben Cowen from
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into the crypto verse.
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But if you haven't,
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let's get Ben on and
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start there for people that don't
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know you out there.
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Ben, first things first, thank you
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so much for taking the time to join
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us.
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Yeah, just for the audience
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that might not know who you are, can
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you give us a quick TLDR of
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your history before you got into
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crypto and how you started
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this fantastic journey that's
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seen you stack up more than a
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million followers on X and a million
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subscribers on YouTube.
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Sure. Yeah.
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I started in
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I mean, I started getting interested
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in Bitcoin back in 2011.
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So a really long time ago,
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I wasn't buying it yet.
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In 2011, I was in college.
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I was my I
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think my second semester,
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maybe my first semester of
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my junior year, second semester.
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I can't remember exactly when it
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was, but it was
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my junior college, I was taking
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a cryptography class.
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I was studying mathematics, so
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we had these electives we could
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take, and I chose cryptography.
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And then I got interested in
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Bitcoin, I didn't have any money to
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put into it, I wish I had back
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then.
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But then I really got into it
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when I went to grad school.
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So I went into grad school in 2013,
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I did a PhD in nuclear engineering,
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a lot of the students in the lab
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were interested, fortunately,
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in investing and blockchain.
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And so that was kind
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of how I got really I
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really started to get into it.
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And then after I
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completed my PhD,
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I then went and I did a postdoc at
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a national lab, at Sandia
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National Labs. And when I was at the
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national lab like I was working on
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a high energy density
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physics, equation of state stuff.
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And I went to this conference
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in Portland, Oregon, this physics
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conference, and I presented my
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research in June
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of 2019.
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And right after I presented it, I
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then went up to my hotel room.
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And then I made my first, uh,
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YouTube video.
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Uh, and, and the, the rationale
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for making it was basically just,
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Hey, like, you know, I've made a ton
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of mistakes, uh in
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crypto and let me
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try and see if I can help people,
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uh avoid some of the mistakes that
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I've made, but like that was, that
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was kind of how I, how I came to be
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here. And I mean, I, I did
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the YouTube channel and worked,
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uh you know full time job for a
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couple of years.
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But then I quit that in 2021 and
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I've just been doing this full time
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ever, ever since.
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Best job in the world I can imagine.
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I traded doing some sports
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broadcasting for crypto and went
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full time in 2022.
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To be honest with you, I haven't
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looked back since.
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If my studio has anything to go by,
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I'm a big Bitcoin proponent.
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Just to keep it topical,
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I don't know if you watched
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with interest the BIP 110 debate
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or anything like that, but I
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did want to get a sense from you,
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your general outlook for Bitcoin as
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it stands right now, both from a
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market's perspective.
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A fundamentals perspective.
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We've seen so many interesting
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things happen with Bitcoin in recent
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years. And I think more than
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anything, the mainstreaming
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of Bitcoin, which has been divisive
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00:08:40,350 --> 00:08:42,469
for hardcore Bitcoin maxis,
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00:08:42,470 --> 00:08:44,849
but more level-headed
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00:08:44,850 --> 00:08:46,829
sort of take so that this
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is what everyone wanted for a very
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long time and it's playing out now
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and we don't really get to choose
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who uses Bitcoin and how.
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But yeah, what's your general take
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on the state of Bitcoin
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as it were? I mean like
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It's a difficult market.
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It's been a difficult market for a
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long time, especially for the
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rest of the crypto market.
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I mean, Bitcoin is arguably one
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of the few things that has done
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anything in
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terms of going up for the last, I
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mean obviously recently it's gone
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down. But if you look at say the
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last like four years or so most
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cryptocurrencies are actually below
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their 2022 lows right
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now, rather than
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near their 2021 highs.
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So, you know, it's tough for
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Bitcoin. If you throw up my screen
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here, Um, this chart,
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it actually shows the, the
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00:09:31,570 --> 00:09:33,749
ROI of Bitcoin as measured
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00:09:33,750 --> 00:09:35,089
from the low.
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00:09:35,090 --> 00:09:36,949
And I mean, this one takes you
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00:09:36,950 --> 00:09:39,609
from the load to the next low.
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00:09:39,610 --> 00:09:41,429
And what you can see, I don't
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00:09:41,430 --> 00:09:43,049
know if you guys can see the screen,
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00:09:43,050 --> 00:09:45,209
but essentially Bitcoin topped
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00:09:45,210 --> 00:09:47,249
on a day
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00:09:47,250 --> 00:09:49,309
like 1050 something.
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00:09:49,310 --> 00:09:51,049
Yeah. Like this purple line, it tops
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on day like 1,050 something you
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00:09:53,290 --> 00:09:54,689
can see the cycle for that one
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topped on day. Like.
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1060 or so, the cycle for that
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was like 1070, a
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00:09:59,730 --> 00:10:01,089
little bit before that.
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00:10:01,090 --> 00:10:03,229
And so every single cycle, as
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measured from the low, has basically
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topped around the same time.
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00:10:07,190 --> 00:10:09,649
The main difference this cycle is
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that we did not have a rotation into
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higher risk assets.
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And the reason we didn't have a
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00:10:13,370 --> 00:10:15,209
higher rotation or a rotation in a
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higher risk assets is because
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00:10:16,570 --> 00:10:18,769
Bitcoin never had a euphoria phase.
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00:10:18,770 --> 00:10:20,449
Right. Like the euphoria phase that
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normally accompanies the end of full
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00:10:21,870 --> 00:10:23,709
markets did not actually
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happen. You could argue that in
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00:10:25,470 --> 00:10:27,109
order for that to have happened,
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00:10:27,110 --> 00:10:28,249
Bitcoin would have had to go to
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$200,000 by the end of 2025.
347
00:10:31,090 --> 00:10:32,169
But it didn't.
348
00:10:32,170 --> 00:10:33,989
And I think the reason it didn't if
349
00:10:33,990 --> 00:10:35,909
you need one is probably related
350
00:10:35,910 --> 00:10:37,969
to, to monetary policy
351
00:10:37,970 --> 00:10:39,948
in a lot of ways, because
352
00:10:39,949 --> 00:10:42,049
while structurally it's very similar
353
00:10:42,050 --> 00:10:43,949
to the 2018 cycle,
354
00:10:43,950 --> 00:10:45,349
like if you look at the year-to-date
355
00:10:45,350 --> 00:10:47,589
ROI of Bitcoin in 2026
356
00:10:47,590 --> 00:10:49,499
and compare that to 2018, I mean.
357
00:10:49,500 --> 00:10:51,159
This is just a less volatile version
358
00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:51,939
of 2018.
359
00:10:51,940 --> 00:10:53,439
The lows align, the lower highs
360
00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,220
align, it all more or less aligns.
361
00:10:56,780 --> 00:10:58,619
So I think what's happening is that
362
00:10:58,620 --> 00:11:02,059
in 2019,
363
00:11:02,060 --> 00:11:03,959
Bitcoin topped two months
364
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:05,099
before quantitative tightening
365
00:11:05,100 --> 00:11:06,639
ended.
366
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:07,859
And so Bitcoin topped in June and
367
00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:08,939
then QT ended in August.
368
00:11:08,940 --> 00:11:10,079
And then this cycle, it was the same
369
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,259
thing. It's just QT, ended in
370
00:11:11,260 --> 00:11:12,599
December. Bitcoin topped it in
371
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,459
October. And by the way, there was
372
00:11:14,460 --> 00:11:16,559
no rotation into higher risk assets,
373
00:11:16,560 --> 00:11:17,859
right? We did not get the rotation
374
00:11:17,860 --> 00:11:19,399
into altcoins.
375
00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,379
Just like 2019 and
376
00:11:21,380 --> 00:11:22,419
I know a lot of people have a hard
377
00:11:22,420 --> 00:11:24,299
time saying that like 2025 and
378
00:11:24,300 --> 00:11:26,519
2019 were similar types of tops but
379
00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,379
they both topped on apathy
380
00:11:28,380 --> 00:11:29,679
right where there was relatively
381
00:11:29,680 --> 00:11:30,659
little interest in the crypto
382
00:11:30,660 --> 00:11:32,619
markets we even track like
383
00:11:32,620 --> 00:11:34,779
I can have a really cool chart here
384
00:11:34,780 --> 00:11:36,479
people can look at where you're
385
00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,559
looking at like the collective views
386
00:11:38,560 --> 00:11:40,179
on YouTube the various crypto
387
00:11:40,180 --> 00:11:41,999
YouTube channels and when you look
388
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:43,879
at, where it is today compared to
389
00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:45,199
where it was in 2021.
390
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:46,399
I mean, it's like a world of
391
00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:47,259
difference, right? Like this is
392
00:11:47,260 --> 00:11:48,579
completely different.
393
00:11:48,580 --> 00:11:50,519
Than 2021, it's
394
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,359
really low, kind of like it was
395
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,419
back in the 2018, 2019
396
00:11:54,420 --> 00:11:56,359
era, when, oh, by the way, we
397
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,079
also topped on apathy and we did not
398
00:11:58,080 --> 00:11:59,199
get that rotation.
399
00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:00,539
So that's essentially where Bitcoin
400
00:12:00,540 --> 00:12:02,079
is from a technical perspective.
401
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,279
If you look at how Bitcoin normally
402
00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,019
bottoms out, it normally finds
403
00:12:07,020 --> 00:12:09,019
a low sometime kind of
404
00:12:09,020 --> 00:12:10,799
like later in the midterm year.
405
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:12,439
So arguably, we're potentially
406
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,119
setting up for that, like maybe one
407
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:14,989
more drop.
408
00:12:14,990 --> 00:12:16,610
We form the market cycle bottom, and
409
00:12:16,611 --> 00:12:18,449
then hopefully we can get back in
410
00:12:18,450 --> 00:12:19,969
business with the next bull market,
411
00:12:19,970 --> 00:12:21,690
ideally going into 2027.
412
00:12:23,750 --> 00:12:25,689
That was my general read
413
00:12:25,690 --> 00:12:27,609
and a lot of more
414
00:12:27,610 --> 00:12:29,049
knowledgeable market analysts have
415
00:12:29,050 --> 00:12:30,969
been telling me that they expect
416
00:12:30,970 --> 00:12:33,649
us to actually find a
417
00:12:33,650 --> 00:12:36,589
proper cycle low in October.
418
00:12:36,590 --> 00:12:38,509
I wanted to ask you if you
419
00:12:38,510 --> 00:12:40,529
agree with that sentiment or is
420
00:12:40,530 --> 00:12:41,969
it harder than that to actually pin
421
00:12:41,970 --> 00:12:43,169
down when?
422
00:12:43,170 --> 00:12:44,869
If we all had a crystal ball, we'd
423
00:12:44,870 --> 00:12:46,729
be rich and no one
424
00:12:46,730 --> 00:12:48,769
has all those answers, but how
425
00:12:48,770 --> 00:12:50,309
do you anticipate this playing out
426
00:12:50,310 --> 00:12:52,049
to the end of 2026?
427
00:12:52,050 --> 00:12:53,549
So if you look at all the prior bear
428
00:12:53,550 --> 00:12:55,369
market bottoms for Bitcoin,
429
00:12:55,370 --> 00:12:57,429
like in 2015, or sorry, the 2014
430
00:12:57,430 --> 00:12:58,789
bear market didn't actually bottom
431
00:12:58,790 --> 00:13:00,609
until January of the following year,
432
00:13:00,610 --> 00:13:02,189
the next bear market ended in
433
00:13:02,190 --> 00:13:04,069
December, the next one was November.
434
00:13:04,070 --> 00:13:05,549
The last two bear markets lasted
435
00:13:05,550 --> 00:13:06,389
about one year.
436
00:13:06,390 --> 00:13:08,409
So we saw November to November
437
00:13:08,410 --> 00:13:10,729
from 2021 to 2022.
438
00:13:10,730 --> 00:13:12,609
In 2017 to 2018, it was December
439
00:13:12,610 --> 00:13:13,469
to December.
440
00:13:13,470 --> 00:13:15,189
So you can kind of see where people
441
00:13:15,190 --> 00:13:16,649
are getting October from because
442
00:13:16,650 --> 00:13:17,969
Bitcoin topped in October.
443
00:13:17,970 --> 00:13:19,349
So about a year long bear market
444
00:13:19,350 --> 00:13:21,529
would put the next low approximately
445
00:13:21,530 --> 00:13:22,858
in.
446
00:13:22,859 --> 00:13:24,859
October in 2022, we also
447
00:13:24,860 --> 00:13:27,019
saw the stock market find a low in
448
00:13:27,020 --> 00:13:28,079
October, right?
449
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:29,839
So there's a lot of things that
450
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:31,939
that, you know, can often happen
451
00:13:31,940 --> 00:13:33,459
in October.
452
00:13:33,460 --> 00:13:35,399
But I wouldn't like I wouldn't
453
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:37,119
t marry that single month and say
454
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,019
that it has to be then I would argue
455
00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:40,119
that it's sort of like a
456
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:41,059
distribution.
457
00:13:41,060 --> 00:13:43,019
So if you were to have like a chart
458
00:13:43,020 --> 00:13:45,079
as to like win Bitcoin bottoms
459
00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:46,839
and you have sort of, like the
460
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:48,519
months where like you say this is,
461
00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:49,459
you know, this is when it's going to
462
00:13:49,460 --> 00:13:50,369
be.
463
00:13:50,370 --> 00:13:52,849
And you start off with say,
464
00:13:52,850 --> 00:13:54,949
like, you know, July and
465
00:13:54,950 --> 00:13:58,369
then you go August, September,
466
00:13:58,370 --> 00:14:00,629
October, November,
467
00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:01,630
December.
468
00:14:03,530 --> 00:14:05,469
I don't know why I drew a V there,
469
00:14:05,470 --> 00:14:07,349
but December and
470
00:14:07,350 --> 00:14:08,350
then January.
471
00:14:10,390 --> 00:14:11,369
Then.
472
00:14:11,370 --> 00:14:12,969
I would argue that it would probably
473
00:14:12,970 --> 00:14:14,189
look something like this where, you
474
00:14:14,190 --> 00:14:16,229
know, there's a chance the low has
475
00:14:16,230 --> 00:14:18,149
already occurred but I would argue
476
00:14:18,150 --> 00:14:19,549
that you know if you're looking like
477
00:14:19,550 --> 00:14:20,949
a sort of like a normal distribution
478
00:14:20,950 --> 00:14:22,809
you're Probably looking at something
479
00:14:22,810 --> 00:14:24,709
like that where like the most
480
00:14:24,710 --> 00:14:26,909
likely time for a low would
481
00:14:26,910 --> 00:14:28,769
probably october But that doesn't
482
00:14:28,770 --> 00:14:30,249
mean it can't happen in like late
483
00:14:30,250 --> 00:14:32,009
september It also doesn't means it
484
00:14:32,010 --> 00:14:33,529
can happen until maybe it doesn't
485
00:14:33,530 --> 00:14:35,249
happen until december You know, I
486
00:14:35,250 --> 00:14:37,189
mean in 2018 the the
487
00:14:37,190 --> 00:14:39,379
bottom didn't occur until dezembr
488
00:14:39,380 --> 00:14:40,639
And structurally, we've been
489
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,719
following 2018 pretty closely
490
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,399
so far.
491
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,039
And what I mean by that is if you
492
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:47,919
look at the lows
493
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,319
in 2018, they were at 6,000.
494
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,219
This cycle has been at 60,000,
495
00:14:52,220 --> 00:14:53,959
so just 10x higher.
496
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,359
And the lows occurred at the same
497
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:56,419
time, right? You had a low in
498
00:14:56,420 --> 00:14:58,319
February, a higher low in late
499
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,339
March, early April, a lower low
500
00:15:00,340 --> 00:15:01,459
in June, July.
501
00:15:01,460 --> 00:15:02,499
The same thing's happened here,
502
00:15:02,500 --> 00:15:03,979
right, a low in February higher low
503
00:15:03,980 --> 00:15:05,379
and late March early April.
504
00:15:05,380 --> 00:15:06,979
A lower low and June, LIE!
505
00:15:06,980 --> 00:15:08,799
You know, if it does play out the
506
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:10,379
same way, then yeah, like it's
507
00:15:10,380 --> 00:15:11,599
possible that it takes until
508
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,739
November for the next
509
00:15:13,740 --> 00:15:15,799
move down to occur, I don't know.
510
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:17,759
But I would argue that October
511
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,559
is the most likely time, but you
512
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,819
have to give like, you know,
513
00:15:21,820 --> 00:15:23,399
some probability to it happening
514
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:24,359
other months.
515
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,019
I would say that if you had to pick
516
00:15:26,020 --> 00:15:27,819
a single month, the highest
517
00:15:27,820 --> 00:15:29,699
probability, it would be October.
518
00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:30,979
But if you take the combined
519
00:15:30,980 --> 00:15:33,049
probability of all the other months,
520
00:15:33,050 --> 00:15:34,949
it might be equivalent to the
521
00:15:34,950 --> 00:15:36,329
probability of it being in October,
522
00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:37,330
if that makes sense.
523
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,339
It does make sense when it comes
524
00:15:40,340 --> 00:15:41,499
to doing this analysis.
525
00:15:41,500 --> 00:15:42,799
Obviously a lot has changed over the
526
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:44,439
years. And I think if we look back
527
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,559
at these previous cycles, I
528
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,219
started covering the industry kind
529
00:15:48,220 --> 00:15:49,939
of midway through 2017.
530
00:15:49,940 --> 00:15:51,659
So, you know, I experienced the
531
00:15:51,660 --> 00:15:53,499
euphoria of the 2017
532
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:55,679
bull run up to 20,000
533
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:56,899
and then the crash, you now into
534
00:15:56,900 --> 00:15:58,619
2018.
535
00:15:58,620 --> 00:16:00,399
But, you there was a lot of retail
536
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:01,899
interest then like really, you the
537
00:16:01,900 --> 00:16:03,779
Google searches were popping off.
538
00:16:03,780 --> 00:16:05,359
I'm sure, you YouTube channels were
539
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:06,379
popping off and it was very
540
00:16:06,380 --> 00:16:07,929
interesting for you to show that.
541
00:16:07,930 --> 00:16:10,069
That previous chart showing
542
00:16:10,070 --> 00:16:12,049
the difference between YouTube
543
00:16:12,050 --> 00:16:13,829
viewership and interest in certain
544
00:16:13,830 --> 00:16:15,009
topics.
545
00:16:15,010 --> 00:16:16,629
When you're doing your analysis now,
546
00:16:16,630 --> 00:16:19,749
as opposed to three, four years ago,
547
00:16:19,750 --> 00:16:20,929
considering the amount of
548
00:16:20,930 --> 00:16:22,409
institutional interest, has that
549
00:16:22,410 --> 00:16:24,109
changed some of the fundamentals you
550
00:16:24,110 --> 00:16:26,289
look at when you're trying to do
551
00:16:26,290 --> 00:16:28,389
this proper fundamental technical
552
00:16:28,390 --> 00:16:29,719
analysis?
553
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:31,759
I don't really put a lot of
554
00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:32,679
weight into that stuff.
555
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,120
I mean, I think to some degree, you
556
00:16:34,121 --> 00:16:35,999
would argue that like,
557
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,119
as Bitcoin grows, it's
558
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:39,899
going to naturally attract bigger
559
00:16:39,900 --> 00:16:41,039
players.
560
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,079
And so you're going to
561
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:44,539
have institutions interested.
562
00:16:45,780 --> 00:16:47,939
I don't really think that,
563
00:16:47,940 --> 00:16:49,819
like it has to be that
564
00:16:49,820 --> 00:16:51,919
like, oh, it's different now.
565
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:52,889
I think.
566
00:16:52,890 --> 00:16:54,509
I think from like a business cycle
567
00:16:54,510 --> 00:16:56,389
perspective, it feels a lot
568
00:16:56,390 --> 00:16:58,389
like 2019, 2020,
569
00:16:58,390 --> 00:17:00,449
early, like late 2019, early 2020
570
00:17:00,450 --> 00:17:02,690
to me is kind of what it feels like.
571
00:17:04,290 --> 00:17:06,189
And I think that,
572
00:17:06,190 --> 00:17:07,589
I mean, even recently,
573
00:17:08,670 --> 00:17:10,549
we've actually seen the ETF
574
00:17:10,550 --> 00:17:12,289
holdings have been dropping, right
575
00:17:12,290 --> 00:17:13,108
over the last few months.
576
00:17:13,109 --> 00:17:15,129
So what was previously a
577
00:17:15,130 --> 00:17:16,689
tailwind has actually become a
578
00:17:16,690 --> 00:17:18,250
headwind in 2026.
579
00:17:19,599 --> 00:17:21,818
So I think it's a narrative for
580
00:17:21,819 --> 00:17:24,059
sure that we could latch on to,
581
00:17:24,060 --> 00:17:25,939
but at the end of the day, I'm a
582
00:17:25,940 --> 00:17:27,899
big believer in that narrative
583
00:17:27,900 --> 00:17:30,919
follows price and, you know,
584
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,859
Bitcoin, I know this is
585
00:17:32,860 --> 00:17:35,079
like maybe a controversial
586
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,379
view, but I
587
00:17:37,380 --> 00:17:39,399
actually preferred Bitcoin before
588
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,279
all these large
589
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,039
players got involved, like before
590
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,039
the governments were interested in
591
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:46,119
Bitcoin. Because if you think about
592
00:17:46,120 --> 00:17:47,619
it, ever since the government's
593
00:17:47,620 --> 00:17:48,839
really started focusing in on
594
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,079
Bitcoin, Bitcoin hasn't really gone
595
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,759
anywhere. I mean, we're trading the
596
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:52,999
time of this video. We're trading at
597
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,399
sixty three thousand dollars.
598
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,139
We were trading at 63 thousand
599
00:17:56,140 --> 00:17:58,099
dollars, you know, back in twenty
600
00:17:58,100 --> 00:17:59,159
twenty one.
601
00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:00,579
Right. And if you if you look at the
602
00:18:00,580 --> 00:18:01,979
if you look at evaluation of Bitcoin
603
00:18:01,980 --> 00:18:03,839
against the S&P 500,
604
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,639
we are trading at where we were in
605
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:06,640
2020.
606
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,539
So, you to a large to
607
00:18:09,540 --> 00:18:11,699
some degree, I
608
00:18:11,700 --> 00:18:13,979
I really preferred Bitcoin.
609
00:18:13,980 --> 00:18:15,119
Before all this stuff, think about
610
00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:17,038
it like this,
611
00:18:17,039 --> 00:18:19,219
Bitcoin essentially went to 60K
612
00:18:19,220 --> 00:18:21,739
without all this hype, right?
613
00:18:21,740 --> 00:18:23,559
From like the institutions and all
614
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:24,719
that stuff. I mean, yes, Sailor
615
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,259
first started buying in late 2020,
616
00:18:27,260 --> 00:18:28,759
but Bitcoin was already like, it was
617
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:30,519
already in business back then.
618
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:31,839
I mean the Fed was printing like $6
619
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:33,399
trillion. I mean there was tons of
620
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:34,559
money being printed.
621
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:36,319
It was already at a bull market.
622
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:37,919
Even if Sailor hadn't bought in late
623
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:39,379
20, I still think Bitcoin would have
624
00:18:39,380 --> 00:18:40,919
had a really great bull market, you
625
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:41,999
know, going into 2021.
626
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,319
So...
627
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,259
I think that
628
00:18:45,260 --> 00:18:46,680
those narratives,
629
00:18:48,120 --> 00:18:49,479
honestly, if anything, they've been
630
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:50,700
a headwind for Bitcoin.
631
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,699
And one of the things about going
632
00:18:54,700 --> 00:18:55,559
through what we're going through
633
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,999
right now in terms of
634
00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:59,699
interest in crypto, like retail
635
00:18:59,700 --> 00:19:01,719
interest has died off, it
636
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,739
almost makes it so that
637
00:19:03,740 --> 00:19:05,279
perhaps Bitcoin is going to get
638
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,339
maybe less attention from
639
00:19:07,340 --> 00:19:08,479
these players, which I think would
640
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,359
be a bullish thing, as
641
00:19:10,360 --> 00:19:11,379
crazy as that sounds.
642
00:19:11,380 --> 00:19:12,689
Like, I mean.
643
00:19:12,690 --> 00:19:14,489
I know that like the narrative is
644
00:19:14,490 --> 00:19:16,429
that like, you know, like ETFs
645
00:19:16,430 --> 00:19:19,149
are good, but,
646
00:19:19,150 --> 00:19:21,289
but arguably two things.
647
00:19:21,290 --> 00:19:23,469
First of all, when thematic
648
00:19:23,470 --> 00:19:25,529
ETFs are launched they're normally
649
00:19:25,530 --> 00:19:27,109
launched near the end of bull
650
00:19:27,110 --> 00:19:28,729
markets, not at the beginning of
651
00:19:28,730 --> 00:19:30,889
them because it takes a
652
00:19:30,890 --> 00:19:32,709
long bull market to get
653
00:19:32,710 --> 00:19:34,329
people interested enough to then,
654
00:19:34,330 --> 00:19:35,949
you know, have the interest to even
655
00:19:35,950 --> 00:19:37,990
launch the ETF in the first place.
656
00:19:39,030 --> 00:19:41,149
And then also thematic ETFs
657
00:19:41,150 --> 00:19:42,729
also underperform the market.
658
00:19:42,730 --> 00:19:44,549
Like the S&P, especially for the
659
00:19:44,550 --> 00:19:45,969
first few years after they're
660
00:19:45,970 --> 00:19:46,969
launched.
661
00:19:46,970 --> 00:19:48,569
So like what you're seeing right now
662
00:19:48,570 --> 00:19:50,489
happening with Bitcoin after the ETF
663
00:19:50,490 --> 00:19:51,789
launch is basically what happens
664
00:19:51,790 --> 00:19:53,849
with every industry after the ETS
665
00:19:53,850 --> 00:19:55,389
launch. I mean look at the QQQ when
666
00:19:55,390 --> 00:19:57,269
the Q QQ launched it
667
00:19:57,270 --> 00:19:59,089
went up for a year and then
668
00:19:59,090 --> 00:20:00,409
underperformed the market for years
669
00:20:00,410 --> 00:20:02,449
but I mean now look at QQ Q.
670
00:20:02,450 --> 00:20:04,349
I means tech is crazy and you
671
00:20:04,350 --> 00:20:05,549
know so I mean eventually Bitcoin
672
00:20:05,550 --> 00:20:07,609
will get back to that point But I
673
00:20:07,610 --> 00:20:09,469
think that I think a lot
674
00:20:09,470 --> 00:20:11,519
of these things you know, have
675
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,699
not necessarily been the tailwind
676
00:20:13,700 --> 00:20:14,959
that people thought they were going
677
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:15,960
to be.
678
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,619
Because I have to imagine that if,
679
00:20:18,620 --> 00:20:20,259
you know when the ETFs were launched
680
00:20:20,260 --> 00:20:22,799
back in, you know, back in 2024,
681
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:23,999
had you told people that Bitcoin
682
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,719
would still be trading at 60k,
683
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,379
they would probably not look at that
684
00:20:28,380 --> 00:20:30,579
as an overwhelming success.
685
00:20:30,580 --> 00:20:31,580
Right?
686
00:20:31,660 --> 00:20:33,479
So I think There's the narrative,
687
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,959
but in reality,
688
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,439
ETFs are antithetical to Bitcoin,
689
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,369
right? If you want to buy Bitcoin,
690
00:20:41,370 --> 00:20:43,429
you want to own your keys,
691
00:20:43,430 --> 00:20:45,269
but it's almost like
692
00:20:45,270 --> 00:20:46,469
we have an identity problem right
693
00:20:46,470 --> 00:20:47,449
now because there's a lot of people
694
00:20:47,450 --> 00:20:48,329
that did that.
695
00:20:48,330 --> 00:20:49,869
And then they had the, you know,
696
00:20:49,870 --> 00:20:51,709
they went with a, we just had
697
00:20:51,710 --> 00:20:54,109
this, this hat, right, cold card.
698
00:20:54,110 --> 00:20:55,649
And so that's called, it's kind of
699
00:20:55,650 --> 00:20:56,969
like an identity crisis to some
700
00:20:56,970 --> 00:20:58,789
degree of like, well, you have these
701
00:20:58,790 --> 00:21:00,009
people that did what they thought
702
00:21:00,010 --> 00:21:00,869
was the right thing.
703
00:21:00,870 --> 00:21:01,889
What they thought was the right
704
00:21:01,890 --> 00:21:03,209
thing and they still lost money.
705
00:21:03,210 --> 00:21:05,049
And, and in that case, that
706
00:21:05,050 --> 00:21:06,829
wasn't a failure of Bitcoin.
707
00:21:07,830 --> 00:21:08,969
Right. That was more of a third
708
00:21:08,970 --> 00:21:10,909
party issue, but the problem
709
00:21:10,910 --> 00:21:12,829
is like, good luck convincing
710
00:21:12,830 --> 00:21:14,729
everyday people of
711
00:21:14,730 --> 00:21:15,729
that, right? Like good luck,
712
00:21:15,730 --> 00:21:17,029
convincing that it's not just a
713
00:21:17,030 --> 00:21:18,229
Bitcoin problem.
714
00:21:18,230 --> 00:21:19,869
And I think that's kind of the main
715
00:21:19,870 --> 00:21:21,909
barrier that we have right now.
716
00:21:21,910 --> 00:21:23,869
And, and so, you know, I think we
717
00:21:23,870 --> 00:21:25,129
just need a little bit more time.
718
00:21:25,130 --> 00:21:26,489
Also the last thing, cause I can
719
00:21:26,490 --> 00:21:28,049
ramble forever, but The last thing
720
00:21:28,050 --> 00:21:28,579
I'm.
721
00:21:28,580 --> 00:21:28,920
Nice, Greg.
722
00:21:28,921 --> 00:21:30,779
Last thing I would say is that in
723
00:21:30,780 --> 00:21:31,959
this last cycle, I think the
724
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:33,459
industry lost its way because we
725
00:21:33,460 --> 00:21:35,179
only focused on how to get more
726
00:21:35,180 --> 00:21:36,259
money into the industry.
727
00:21:36,260 --> 00:21:37,979
Like we focused on ETS, we focused
728
00:21:37,980 --> 00:21:39,799
on strategic Bitcoin reserves, and
729
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,219
then the only things that did really
730
00:21:41,220 --> 00:21:43,119
well for very, very brief periods
731
00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:44,999
of time were like the micro cap
732
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,559
meme coins, right?
733
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,279
And everything else in crypto just
734
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,179
kind of like died out because no one
735
00:21:50,180 --> 00:21:51,299
cared about it anymore.
736
00:21:51,300 --> 00:21:52,799
And then the meme coins eventually
737
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,299
they're now dying out because people
738
00:21:54,300 --> 00:21:56,439
are like, okay, they're just scams.
739
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:57,799
And I think.
740
00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,599
We're going through sort of this
741
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,699
painful, maturing process as
742
00:22:01,700 --> 00:22:03,479
an industry, because for the
743
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,439
industry to grow and to
744
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,559
become like what, you know,
745
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:08,779
probably what you and I think it can
746
00:22:08,780 --> 00:22:10,819
eventually become, you have
747
00:22:10,820 --> 00:22:12,339
to go through periods like this
748
00:22:12,340 --> 00:22:14,219
where people realize, hey,
749
00:22:14,220 --> 00:22:16,059
we had this massive mal-investment
750
00:22:16,060 --> 00:22:18,139
of capital for years, and
751
00:22:18,140 --> 00:22:19,799
now we need to actually invest it in
752
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:20,619
a proper way.
753
00:22:20,620 --> 00:22:22,699
And I think that that process is
754
00:22:22,700 --> 00:22:24,639
just a multi-year process, and
755
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,799
it's been going on, arguably,
756
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,639
since 2021, because again,
757
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,339
when you look at social interest,
758
00:22:30,340 --> 00:22:32,559
it's been trending down since 2021.
759
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:33,859
I have one more interesting chart
760
00:22:33,860 --> 00:22:34,960
really quick to show.
761
00:22:36,540 --> 00:22:38,539
This is the if
762
00:22:38,540 --> 00:22:39,939
you look at the advanced decline
763
00:22:39,940 --> 00:22:41,179
index of the top 100
764
00:22:41,180 --> 00:22:42,419
cryptocurrencies, this basically
765
00:22:42,420 --> 00:22:44,979
shows you, you know,
766
00:22:44,980 --> 00:22:46,859
the ADI is something that's used
767
00:22:46,860 --> 00:22:49,299
in the stock market a lot.
768
00:22:49,300 --> 00:22:50,899
And the point is to figure out like,
769
00:22:50,900 --> 00:22:52,640
is the is the index going up?
770
00:22:53,660 --> 00:22:55,979
Because everything is going up.
771
00:22:55,980 --> 00:22:58,019
Or is it going up because one
772
00:22:58,020 --> 00:23:00,499
or two assets are lifting it, right?
773
00:23:00,500 --> 00:23:03,679
Now look at 2020 and 2021.
774
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:04,999
This orange line, the advanced
775
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,459
decline index of the top 100
776
00:23:06,460 --> 00:23:08,639
cryptos, it was going up.
777
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,279
So like everything was going out
778
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:11,079
basically.
779
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,639
You could, any investor out there
780
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:13,899
could take a dart and throw it on a
781
00:23:13,900 --> 00:23:15,299
board and just go buy whatever it
782
00:23:15,300 --> 00:23:16,199
landed on. And they're probably going
783
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:17,599
to make money, right.
784
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,080
But ever since 2021,
785
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,739
this has been trending down.
786
00:23:21,740 --> 00:23:23,559
So the reason we even had a bull
787
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:24,889
market last cycle.
788
00:23:24,890 --> 00:23:26,909
Was because of Bitcoin, because
789
00:23:26,910 --> 00:23:28,489
a lot of the rest of the market was
790
00:23:28,490 --> 00:23:30,189
actually just trending down.
791
00:23:30,190 --> 00:23:31,569
And I think it makes sense because,
792
00:23:31,570 --> 00:23:33,089
you know, they go on to YouTube,
793
00:23:33,090 --> 00:23:34,749
they go on Twitter, the things that
794
00:23:34,750 --> 00:23:37,029
were getting the most attention were
795
00:23:37,030 --> 00:23:38,449
all these things that didn't really
796
00:23:38,450 --> 00:23:39,529
matter. Right.
797
00:23:39,530 --> 00:23:41,469
And now we're paying the price and
798
00:23:41,470 --> 00:23:43,329
it's hard and it and we did the same
799
00:23:43,330 --> 00:23:44,629
thing in 2019.
800
00:23:44,630 --> 00:23:45,969
The only difference between this
801
00:23:45,970 --> 00:23:48,049
cycle in 2019 is that
802
00:23:48,050 --> 00:23:49,469
the 2019 top,
803
00:23:50,570 --> 00:23:53,119
like the top that we had in 2019
804
00:23:53,120 --> 00:23:55,379
was not the four-year cycle top,
805
00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:56,639
right?
806
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,519
So we had this 2019 top, but
807
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,139
it's not the for your cycle top.
808
00:24:00,140 --> 00:24:02,059
This time it was the four year
809
00:24:02,060 --> 00:24:03,939
cycle top so the argument that I'm
810
00:24:03,940 --> 00:24:05,859
making is that the
811
00:24:05,860 --> 00:24:08,119
post apathetic top digestion
812
00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:10,559
phase we had in 2019 just
813
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,579
happens to align up with
814
00:24:12,580 --> 00:24:14,419
the 2026 bear market and then
815
00:24:14,420 --> 00:24:16,179
the four years cycle ends up winning
816
00:24:16,180 --> 00:24:17,180
again.
817
00:24:17,719 --> 00:24:19,579
Yeah, that was a really great riff
818
00:24:19,580 --> 00:24:21,419
by the way and I think like a lot
819
00:24:21,420 --> 00:24:22,839
of the things you said resonated
820
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,079
with me and we've been hearing it a
821
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:25,459
lot from people in the industry.
822
00:24:25,460 --> 00:24:27,179
I mean, I hate to talk about apathy
823
00:24:27,180 --> 00:24:28,539
and I don't want to be a doomer but
824
00:24:28,540 --> 00:24:30,659
I think that there's a lot people in
825
00:24:30,660 --> 00:24:32,519
industry right now that are kind of
826
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,199
thinking like, what's going to
827
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:34,979
happen from here?
828
00:24:34,980 --> 00:24:37,139
You know, and I like even just the
829
00:24:37,140 --> 00:24:38,899
entire Bitcoin thing right now, you
830
00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:40,499
know, like the cold card hack.
831
00:24:40,500 --> 00:24:41,939
As you mentioned, everyone did
832
00:24:41,940 --> 00:24:43,779
everything right and it wasn't a
833
00:24:43,780 --> 00:24:45,039
failing of the Bitcoin protocol, but
834
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,799
it's you know, like my parents are
835
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:47,879
gonna come and stay with me in a
836
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:48,699
couple of days time.
837
00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:49,779
And I'm sure that's the first thing
838
00:24:49,780 --> 00:24:50,799
they're gonna ask me about.
839
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:51,879
And then I have to explain to them
840
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:53,739
that no, it was actually an
841
00:24:53,740 --> 00:24:55,659
issue with a random number generator
842
00:24:55,660 --> 00:24:57,599
that cold card users were
843
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:58,859
using to generate their seed.
844
00:24:58,860 --> 00:25:01,239
And it's just as long convoluted
845
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,179
explanation that will go over most
846
00:25:03,180 --> 00:25:04,139
people's heads.
847
00:25:04,140 --> 00:25:05,519
And then they're kind of like, well,
848
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:06,939
I thought I was supposed to hold my
849
00:25:06,940 --> 00:25:08,119
Bitcoin. That's the point.
850
00:25:08,120 --> 00:25:09,799
I still fundamentally believe that.
851
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:11,639
I've seen guys like British HODL
852
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,599
saying like, put all your.
853
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,599
Put all your money into Bitcoin ETS,
854
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,039
forget about holding Bitcoin
855
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:18,759
yourself. I fundamentally don't
856
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:19,819
believe that.
857
00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:21,259
I still think Bitcoin is money.
858
00:25:21,260 --> 00:25:22,359
It's a great store of value.
859
00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:23,239
It's still going through price
860
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,719
discovery and you should be
861
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,079
in control of your keys and be in
862
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:27,939
your control of money. That's the
863
00:25:27,940 --> 00:25:29,899
whole point. It's censorship
864
00:25:29,900 --> 00:25:30,979
resistant money.
865
00:25:30,980 --> 00:25:32,959
So I want it to be that, but we're
866
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,019
definitely going through a crazy,
867
00:25:35,020 --> 00:25:36,299
like just a crazy time.
868
00:25:36,300 --> 00:25:37,299
And I don't know how much you've
869
00:25:37,300 --> 00:25:38,539
been paying attention to like the
870
00:25:38,540 --> 00:25:40,419
Bitcoin Red team,
871
00:25:40,420 --> 00:25:42,379
the guys at Anchor Watch and a
872
00:25:42,380 --> 00:25:43,399
couple of other.
873
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,279
The prominent Bitcoin is putting
874
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:46,699
a huge amount of time and effort and
875
00:25:46,700 --> 00:25:48,839
money basically using Kimi
876
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,999
AI to go and vet all
877
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,079
the open source Bitcoin code out
878
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,219
there and then point out big
879
00:25:55,220 --> 00:25:56,599
vulnerabilities to all the teams
880
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,299
that are building in Bitcoin in an
881
00:25:58,300 --> 00:25:59,539
effort to just make sure that we
882
00:25:59,540 --> 00:26:00,839
don't have anything like the cold
883
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,479
card exploit happen again.
884
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,319
And that's the links that people
885
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,099
that are interested in Bitcoin still
886
00:26:06,100 --> 00:26:08,699
reaching its purpose are
887
00:26:08,700 --> 00:26:10,539
willing to go to, pay for
888
00:26:10,540 --> 00:26:12,019
it themselves to make sure that the
889
00:26:12,020 --> 00:26:13,349
movement stays alive.
890
00:26:13,350 --> 00:26:15,229
And my next question
891
00:26:15,230 --> 00:26:16,689
to you is like, do you ever
892
00:26:16,690 --> 00:26:18,509
anticipate the retail interest
893
00:26:18,510 --> 00:26:20,429
of prior years coming back?
894
00:26:20,430 --> 00:26:21,329
And I mean, you're someone who's
895
00:26:21,330 --> 00:26:22,749
pretty plugged into a big community
896
00:26:22,750 --> 00:26:24,649
of people that respect your takes
897
00:26:24,650 --> 00:26:26,629
or respect your outlook on the
898
00:26:26,630 --> 00:26:28,029
markets, everything that you've
899
00:26:28,030 --> 00:26:29,989
built with your company.
900
00:26:29,990 --> 00:26:31,969
Do you think retail comes back or
901
00:26:31,970 --> 00:26:33,589
is it over?
902
00:26:33,590 --> 00:26:34,629
I think it will eventually come
903
00:26:34,630 --> 00:26:36,729
back. Yeah, I mean, again,
904
00:26:36,730 --> 00:26:39,049
from a business cycle perspective,
905
00:26:39,050 --> 00:26:40,989
everything is that's playing out now
906
00:26:40,990 --> 00:26:43,609
played out from 2018 to 2019.
907
00:26:43,610 --> 00:26:45,569
The main difference is this is a
908
00:26:45,570 --> 00:26:47,349
larger version of that, right?
909
00:26:47,350 --> 00:26:49,669
So if you throw up my screen here,
910
00:26:49,670 --> 00:26:51,229
and you look at if you were to
911
00:26:51,230 --> 00:26:52,970
overlay interest rates, and if you
912
00:26:52,971 --> 00:26:55,969
are to overlay the
913
00:26:55,970 --> 00:26:57,789
balance sheet of the Federal Reserve,
914
00:26:57,790 --> 00:26:59,349
not that you need all this stuff to
915
00:26:59,350 --> 00:27:00,569
like understand what's going on.
916
00:27:00,570 --> 00:27:02,449
But if you if you wanted
917
00:27:02,450 --> 00:27:03,509
a story to tell.
918
00:27:03,510 --> 00:27:05,569
You know, you can see back
919
00:27:05,570 --> 00:27:07,429
in, you know, 28 between 2019
920
00:27:07,430 --> 00:27:08,549
We had we were going through
921
00:27:08,550 --> 00:27:10,289
quantitative tightening and the Fed
922
00:27:10,290 --> 00:27:12,429
was raising rates, right now look
923
00:27:12,430 --> 00:27:13,789
at what we just went through Right.
924
00:27:13,790 --> 00:27:14,589
We've been we went through
925
00:27:14,590 --> 00:27:15,969
quantitative tightning a lot longer
926
00:27:15,970 --> 00:27:17,309
and then the Fed raised rates a lot
927
00:27:17,310 --> 00:27:19,529
higher So this whole
928
00:27:19,530 --> 00:27:21,849
thing right here in 2018 2019
929
00:27:21,850 --> 00:27:23,649
is this the smaller version of what
930
00:27:23,650 --> 00:27:25,289
we basically experience from like
931
00:27:25,290 --> 00:27:27,829
2022 through 2026
932
00:27:27,830 --> 00:27:29,709
and and so the argument is that
933
00:27:29,710 --> 00:27:31,619
like People are losing
934
00:27:31,620 --> 00:27:33,579
faith because this is going on
935
00:27:33,580 --> 00:27:34,939
longer than they thought it would
936
00:27:34,940 --> 00:27:36,579
but the reason it's going on Longer
937
00:27:36,580 --> 00:27:37,539
than they've thought it Would is
938
00:27:37,540 --> 00:27:39,139
because monetary policy remains
939
00:27:39,140 --> 00:27:40,979
restrictive for far longer
940
00:27:40,980 --> 00:27:42,279
than They thought it Would and the
941
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,259
argument for why that happened was
942
00:27:44,260 --> 00:27:46,239
because for the first time with the
943
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:47,439
exception of the pandemic in
944
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,379
bitcoins history We've actually had
945
00:27:49,380 --> 00:27:50,519
to worry a little bit about the
946
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:51,739
macro right like the unemployment
947
00:27:51,740 --> 00:27:53,219
rate the inflation rate That's not
948
00:27:53,220 --> 00:27:54,639
has been that hasn't been as well
949
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,559
behaved as it has been in prior
950
00:27:57,879 --> 00:27:59,779
in in prior cycles And
951
00:27:59,780 --> 00:28:01,579
so perhaps that's the reason why
952
00:28:01,580 --> 00:28:03,399
this has taken on this has gone on
953
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,879
longer and longer and longer.
954
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,639
But I do think I do you think retail
955
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:07,739
will eventually return.
956
00:28:07,740 --> 00:28:08,819
But, you know, it's hard for them to
957
00:28:08,820 --> 00:28:10,179
return when inflation is eating
958
00:28:10,180 --> 00:28:12,479
their their finances alive.
959
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,059
Like, I mean, it is hard.
960
00:28:14,060 --> 00:28:15,739
It's hard adjusting to like going to
961
00:28:15,740 --> 00:28:17,559
the grocery store and spending
962
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,039
two to three times what you would
963
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,259
spend in 2019, you
964
00:28:21,260 --> 00:28:22,799
for basically the same thing.
965
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,099
That's a hard adjustment.
966
00:28:24,100 --> 00:28:25,279
And it makes it so that people have
967
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:26,669
less disposable income.
968
00:28:26,670 --> 00:28:28,749
To then invest in higher risk
969
00:28:28,750 --> 00:28:29,909
assets, right? I mean, that's just
970
00:28:29,910 --> 00:28:32,369
the way the world works.
971
00:28:32,370 --> 00:28:35,529
I do think it will return, but
972
00:28:35,530 --> 00:28:36,849
you know, if you look at, there's
973
00:28:36,850 --> 00:28:39,449
the social metric here, social risk,
974
00:28:39,450 --> 00:28:41,309
we're currently at around 0.2
975
00:28:41,310 --> 00:28:42,310
risk.
976
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,199
And if you look at 2020-22,
977
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,719
the same time in 2022 in August,
978
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:50,499
we were actually at like 0.5.
979
00:28:50,500 --> 00:28:52,339
So what's remarkable is we
980
00:28:52,340 --> 00:28:54,199
had way more retail interest in
981
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,059
2022 than we have
982
00:28:56,060 --> 00:28:57,639
in 2026.
983
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,499
But if you go to the cycle before
984
00:28:59,500 --> 00:29:01,659
that, 2018
985
00:29:01,660 --> 00:29:03,719
in August social interest
986
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,699
was also 0.2.
987
00:29:05,700 --> 00:29:07,659
So again, we've been here
988
00:29:07,660 --> 00:29:09,699
before. We've been in this position
989
00:29:09,700 --> 00:29:10,869
before.
990
00:29:10,870 --> 00:29:12,729
And we can see that
991
00:29:12,730 --> 00:29:14,689
retail interest, it did come
992
00:29:14,690 --> 00:29:16,509
back. And I think it
993
00:29:16,510 --> 00:29:18,689
will come back, but it's
994
00:29:18,690 --> 00:29:20,049
coming back on a different timeline
995
00:29:20,050 --> 00:29:21,369
than what people think.
996
00:29:21,370 --> 00:29:23,829
And also the
997
00:29:23,830 --> 00:29:25,469
warning that I gave people five
998
00:29:25,470 --> 00:29:26,989
years ago as it relates to altcoins
999
00:29:26,990 --> 00:29:28,509
is like, guys, look, you're gonna be
1000
00:29:28,510 --> 00:29:30,209
better off with Bitcoin over
1001
00:29:30,210 --> 00:29:32,349
altcoins because whenever
1002
00:29:32,350 --> 00:29:33,869
retail interest does come back
1003
00:29:35,270 --> 00:29:36,529
the things that people are gonna
1004
00:29:36,530 --> 00:29:37,749
care about are probably way
1005
00:29:37,750 --> 00:29:38,789
different than the things they care
1006
00:29:38,790 --> 00:29:40,208
about in 2020 coin.
1007
00:29:40,209 --> 00:29:41,509
They're going to be chasing another
1008
00:29:41,510 --> 00:29:43,329
narrative, whether it
1009
00:29:43,330 --> 00:29:45,469
be AI or whatever the future
1010
00:29:45,470 --> 00:29:47,269
narrative might be, who knows what
1011
00:29:47,270 --> 00:29:48,209
it is.
1012
00:29:48,210 --> 00:29:50,149
But I think it will come back, but
1013
00:29:50,150 --> 00:29:51,249
you're just going to have to have
1014
00:29:51,250 --> 00:29:52,989
more time. And it's very unlikely to
1015
00:29:52,990 --> 00:29:53,829
come back this year.
1016
00:29:53,830 --> 00:29:56,249
This year is just a reset year,
1017
00:29:56,250 --> 00:29:58,729
not only for Bitcoin, but also for
1018
00:29:58,730 --> 00:29:59,729
metals as well.
1019
00:29:59,730 --> 00:30:00,989
It's been a reset here.
1020
00:30:00,990 --> 00:30:02,389
The stock market has gone on to new
1021
00:30:02,390 --> 00:30:03,549
all-time highs, but so what?
1022
00:30:03,550 --> 00:30:04,469
I mean, it went to new all-time
1023
00:30:04,470 --> 00:30:05,619
highs.
1024
00:30:05,620 --> 00:30:06,999
In 2018 as well.
1025
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:07,939
I think it went to new all-time
highs,
1026
00:30:07,940 --> 00:30:09,619
I believe, in 2014 as well, even
1027
00:30:09,620 --> 00:30:10,899
though Bitcoin continued on in the
1028
00:30:10,900 --> 00:30:11,919
bear market.
1029
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,679
And by the way, what normally
1030
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,179
happens is
1031
00:30:16,180 --> 00:30:17,439
that Bitcoin puts in its market
1032
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,359
cycle bottom when you get that
1033
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:20,459
second correction in the stock
1034
00:30:20,460 --> 00:30:22,419
market. So in 2014, 2018,
1035
00:30:22,420 --> 00:30:24,279
and 2022, we had a correction
1036
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:25,639
in stocks at the very beginning of
1037
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,079
the year that corresponded with
1038
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:28,619
Bitcoin's first big drop.
1039
00:30:28,620 --> 00:30:29,759
And then there was another
1040
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,719
correction in stocks starting in
1041
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:33,178
August or September.
1042
00:30:33,179 --> 00:30:35,179
In those three midterm years and
1043
00:30:35,180 --> 00:30:37,039
so the argument is that all
1044
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:38,739
right well if stocks go through this
1045
00:30:38,740 --> 00:30:40,879
similar correction like
1046
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,279
if you look at the end of
1047
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,199
2014, the end,
1048
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,159
of 2018 and then
1049
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,059
of course the end of 2022 you can
1050
00:30:49,060 --> 00:30:50,199
see that the stock market had these
1051
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:51,719
corrections if you get that one more
1052
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,179
time that likely corresponds to the
1053
00:30:53,180 --> 00:30:55,019
market cycle bottom for bitcoin
1054
00:30:55,020 --> 00:30:56,359
and then hopefully we can start
1055
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,099
thinking about getting retail
1056
00:30:58,100 --> 00:30:59,599
interest to come back but it's not
1057
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:00,719
going to come this year.
1058
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:01,720
I don't think.
1059
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,339
Yeah, unfortunately, I don't think
1060
00:31:04,340 --> 00:31:05,659
so either.
1061
00:31:05,660 --> 00:31:06,699
Obviously on your channel, you've
1062
00:31:06,700 --> 00:31:08,519
been doing a fair amount of videos
1063
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,179
on, like you said, precious metals,
1064
00:31:10,180 --> 00:31:12,979
gold. I'm curious if you have any
1065
00:31:12,980 --> 00:31:15,259
strong opinions or thoughts on
1066
00:31:15,260 --> 00:31:16,999
the overall AI trade, because I
1067
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,399
think there's been general consensus
1068
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,739
that the boom in
1069
00:31:20,740 --> 00:31:22,619
AI, the sector, and the
1070
00:31:22,620 --> 00:31:23,899
fundraising and everything has just
1071
00:31:23,900 --> 00:31:26,139
sucked a load of liquidity out of,
1072
00:31:26,140 --> 00:31:28,539
especially Bitcoin and the
1073
00:31:28,540 --> 00:31:29,639
broader crypto markets.
1074
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:30,619
Do you share that sentiment?
1075
00:31:30,620 --> 00:31:32,459
And do you think that that's also?
1076
00:31:32,460 --> 00:31:34,359
Some sort of a bubble waiting to
1077
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:35,059
pop.
1078
00:31:35,060 --> 00:31:36,899
I mean, to some degree, yeah, but
1079
00:31:36,900 --> 00:31:37,839
I mean no one knows when it's going
1080
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:38,979
to happen.
1081
00:31:38,980 --> 00:31:40,039
And, and, you know, the, the
1082
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:41,739
question we have to ask ourselves
1083
00:31:41,740 --> 00:31:43,919
is, is does AI lead
1084
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,739
to profitability quick
1085
00:31:45,740 --> 00:31:47,579
enough to justify the valuations,
1086
00:31:47,580 --> 00:31:48,439
right?
1087
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,399
Like, I mean with the internet,
1088
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:51,599
I means the internet we couldn't
1089
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:52,659
even be having this interview
1090
00:31:52,660 --> 00:31:53,939
without the internet.
1091
00:31:53,940 --> 00:31:55,819
Right. Um, it completely changed
1092
00:31:55,820 --> 00:31:57,359
the world, but yet we still had a
1093
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,459
bear market following the, following
1094
00:31:59,460 --> 00:32:00,779
the internet boom.
1095
00:32:00,780 --> 00:32:01,780
Thank you.
1096
00:32:02,030 --> 00:32:03,349
That doesn't mean that you have to
1097
00:32:03,350 --> 00:32:05,029
have one nearly as bad following the
1098
00:32:05,030 --> 00:32:06,129
AI boom, but there's also no
1099
00:32:06,130 --> 00:32:07,449
guarantee. I mean, how long is this
1100
00:32:07,450 --> 00:32:08,689
going to go on for?
1101
00:32:08,690 --> 00:32:10,309
When, when, when the dot com bubble
1102
00:32:10,310 --> 00:32:11,949
happens, they cut rates and then
1103
00:32:11,950 --> 00:32:13,269
they had to like raise rates like
1104
00:32:13,270 --> 00:32:15,169
seven times after
1105
00:32:15,170 --> 00:32:16,729
the initial rate hiking cycle, so
1106
00:32:16,730 --> 00:32:17,749
they had the initial right hiking
1107
00:32:17,750 --> 00:32:19,509
cycle, then they cut rate.
1108
00:32:19,510 --> 00:32:20,669
Eventually they raise rates again.
1109
00:32:20,670 --> 00:32:21,849
They had to raise rates, like a
1110
00:32:21,850 --> 00:32:22,989
hundred something basis points
1111
00:32:22,990 --> 00:32:25,109
again, seven times, um,
1112
00:32:25,110 --> 00:32:26,749
for it to actually pop the bubble.
1113
00:32:26,750 --> 00:32:28,749
So, you know, yeah, like
1114
00:32:28,750 --> 00:32:30,250
it'll probably eventually pop.
1115
00:32:31,370 --> 00:32:33,409
But I don't think it's gonna pop
1116
00:32:33,410 --> 00:32:35,489
before Open AI
1117
00:32:35,490 --> 00:32:38,429
has their IPO, you know
1118
00:32:38,430 --> 00:32:40,089
It's probably you know, you're
1119
00:32:40,090 --> 00:32:41,289
probably gonna have a correction in
1120
00:32:41,290 --> 00:32:42,709
stocks soon.
1121
00:32:42,710 --> 00:32:44,749
I would say 10 to 20 percent
1122
00:32:44,750 --> 00:32:46,969
would be my guess Probably
1123
00:32:46,970 --> 00:32:48,669
doesn't start until September.
1124
00:32:48,670 --> 00:32:50,069
Maybe it could start in August, but
1125
00:32:50,070 --> 00:32:51,289
probably not until September Maybe
1126
00:32:51,290 --> 00:32:53,589
around the next Fed meeting is
1127
00:32:53,590 --> 00:32:55,009
likely when I would if I did guess
1128
00:32:55,010 --> 00:32:56,010
as to when it would start
1129
00:32:57,530 --> 00:32:59,189
So yeah, I think technology
1130
00:32:59,190 --> 00:33:01,089
absolutely influences the cycles
1131
00:33:01,090 --> 00:33:03,029
because the reality is
1132
00:33:03,030 --> 00:33:05,109
crypto has
1133
00:33:05,110 --> 00:33:06,729
existed under the same macro
1134
00:33:06,730 --> 00:33:08,789
conditions that AI has
1135
00:33:08,790 --> 00:33:10,789
existed under, but yet AI
1136
00:33:10,790 --> 00:33:12,509
did fine, right?
1137
00:33:12,510 --> 00:33:14,569
Why did AI do fine?
1138
00:33:14,570 --> 00:33:16,689
Because everyone wants to use it,
1139
00:33:16,690 --> 00:33:17,930
right. I use AI,
1140
00:33:19,150 --> 00:33:21,489
I'm guessing you use AI.
1141
00:33:21,490 --> 00:33:23,369
I mean, my developers that I
1142
00:33:23,370 --> 00:33:25,489
have, I want them to use AI
1143
00:33:25,490 --> 00:33:27,299
to help them you know, develop the
1144
00:33:27,300 --> 00:33:28,759
website that we're working on.
1145
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,039
I want, I mean, AI makes
1146
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,739
our lives easier and
1147
00:33:33,740 --> 00:33:35,579
I spend money on
1148
00:33:35,580 --> 00:33:36,759
AI, right?
1149
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,619
Because I find it
1150
00:33:38,620 --> 00:33:40,559
to be an essential thing
1151
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,599
to, you know to grow
1152
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,639
a lot of these businesses and
1153
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,399
to help you figure out like how you
1154
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:47,899
can, you know what you can do to
1155
00:33:47,900 --> 00:33:48,919
improve.
1156
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:50,499
The issue is that like the average
1157
00:33:50,500 --> 00:33:52,339
person doesn't think they need
1158
00:33:52,340 --> 00:33:53,499
crypto, right.
1159
00:33:53,500 --> 00:33:56,589
Because if the average person...
1160
00:33:56,590 --> 00:33:59,089
Came to crypto in 2024 and
1161
00:33:59,090 --> 00:34:00,949
got rugs on a Solana meme coin.
1162
00:34:02,290 --> 00:34:03,329
Why? How are they going to think
1163
00:34:03,330 --> 00:34:04,949
they need crypto, right?
1164
00:34:04,950 --> 00:34:06,029
They're not. They're going to
1165
00:34:06,030 --> 00:34:08,149
they're going into equate that with
1166
00:34:08,150 --> 00:34:10,408
everything else in the industry and
1167
00:34:10,409 --> 00:34:12,729
think that it's all just a scam.
1168
00:34:12,730 --> 00:34:15,369
And there's nothing we can do
1169
00:34:15,370 --> 00:34:17,229
necessarily to,
1170
00:34:17,230 --> 00:34:19,229
you know, to to change
1171
00:34:19,230 --> 00:34:20,329
that in the short term.
1172
00:34:20,330 --> 00:34:21,908
It's just time like we have to go
1173
00:34:21,909 --> 00:34:23,928
through time where people kind
1174
00:34:23,929 --> 00:34:25,879
of are willing to move on
1175
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:26,939
from that stuff. But in the short
1176
00:34:26,940 --> 00:34:28,419
term, people are tired of being
1177
00:34:28,420 --> 00:34:29,879
rugged, they're tired of all that
1178
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:30,899
stuff, and you could argue the
1179
00:34:30,900 --> 00:34:32,718
reason why crypto has struggled way
1180
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,019
more than AI is because AI
1181
00:34:35,020 --> 00:34:37,459
was giving the average person
1182
00:34:37,460 --> 00:34:39,779
a reason to
1183
00:34:39,780 --> 00:34:41,718
want it. Whereas I feel like crypto
1184
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,099
hasn't really given people that
1185
00:34:43,100 --> 00:34:44,099
reason.
1186
00:34:44,100 --> 00:34:45,359
The thing that people were chasing
1187
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,218
were just things that enrich
1188
00:34:47,219 --> 00:34:48,599
the founders, right?
1189
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:49,959
Like just meme coins and stuff.
1190
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:51,119
That just enriches the founders.
1191
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:52,009
It does nothing.
1192
00:34:52,010 --> 00:34:53,388
For the person buying it except
1193
00:34:53,389 --> 00:34:55,009
makes them lose all their money.
1194
00:34:56,830 --> 00:34:59,369
Yeah, I mean, I have my fundamental
1195
00:34:59,370 --> 00:35:00,849
qualms with meme coins.
1196
00:35:00,850 --> 00:35:03,629
You know, like I enjoy the
1197
00:35:03,630 --> 00:35:05,609
influence of people like Ansem, but
1198
00:35:05,610 --> 00:35:07,449
I genuinely, you know, I
1199
00:35:07,450 --> 00:35:09,529
don't want to
1200
00:35:09,530 --> 00:35:11,509
bluff people or, you
1201
00:35:11,510 --> 00:35:12,829
know say things that just aren't
1202
00:35:12,830 --> 00:35:13,969
true. And I mean there's no
1203
00:35:13,970 --> 00:35:15,889
fundamental value in these things as
1204
00:35:15,890 --> 00:35:17,869
much as you can talk about attention
1205
00:35:17,870 --> 00:35:19,609
economies and bringing people into
1206
00:35:19,610 --> 00:35:20,969
the industry, that kind of thing.
1207
00:35:20,970 --> 00:35:23,029
I think it's like
1208
00:35:23,030 --> 00:35:25,289
a zero-sum game, and...
1209
00:35:25,290 --> 00:35:27,209
They will trade to zero
1210
00:35:27,210 --> 00:35:29,049
eventually, like nothing's gonna
1211
00:35:29,050 --> 00:35:31,069
keep these tokens alive in value.
1212
00:35:31,070 --> 00:35:31,610
Unfortunately. And eventually.
1213
00:35:31,611 --> 00:35:32,779
Right and eventually and eventually
1214
00:35:32,780 --> 00:35:34,679
you run out of people to sell this
1215
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,819
idea too right like if like
1216
00:35:36,820 --> 00:35:38,279
there's only so many times you can
1217
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,179
rug people before they are like
1218
00:35:40,180 --> 00:35:41,979
you know what maybe i don't want to
1219
00:35:41,980 --> 00:35:43,899
be here right and maybe i
1220
00:35:43,900 --> 00:35:45,119
dont want to keep investing in this
1221
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:46,819
maybe i would be better off just
1222
00:35:46,820 --> 00:35:48,439
putting it in the stock market right
1223
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,499
so there's just only so much times
1224
00:35:50,500 --> 00:35:52,199
and i i like i have no problem
1225
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:53,419
saying it i think everyone who's
1226
00:35:53,420 --> 00:35:55,319
promoting meme coins has done
1227
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:56,499
a complete as a service to the
1228
00:35:56,500 --> 00:35:57,699
industry.
1229
00:35:57,700 --> 00:35:59,519
Meme coins do not bring people to
1230
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:00,899
bitcoin in my opinion, they
1231
00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:02,459
basically push people away from the
1232
00:36:02,460 --> 00:36:03,719
industry because a lot of people
1233
00:36:03,720 --> 00:36:05,819
actually join crypto because
1234
00:36:05,820 --> 00:36:07,859
of during a bitcoin parabolic rally
1235
00:36:07,860 --> 00:36:09,379
that if you look at all the major
1236
00:36:09,380 --> 00:36:11,379
social interest spikes in the past,
1237
00:36:11,380 --> 00:36:13,439
it was during parabolic rallies
1238
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,359
by bitcoin and then
1239
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,359
what happens is that people come
1240
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,359
in and then everyone promotes
1241
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,359
like all these other coins and
1242
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:22,319
then so people then start buying
1243
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:23,859
that and then we have a bitcoin bear
1244
00:36:23,860 --> 00:36:25,879
market but the reality
1245
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,819
is that A lot of people
1246
00:36:27,820 --> 00:36:29,659
lose a lot of money in
1247
00:36:29,660 --> 00:36:31,259
the meme coin market, and then they
1248
00:36:31,260 --> 00:36:32,999
don't then go to Bitcoin, they just
1249
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:33,999
leave.
1250
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:35,839
So I would say as an industry,
1251
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:36,619
we just need to get our act
1252
00:36:36,620 --> 00:36:38,299
together. We need to focus on what
1253
00:36:38,300 --> 00:36:40,279
actually matters and start
1254
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:41,599
and continue, we've already been
1255
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,499
doing it, but continue to rebuke the
1256
00:36:43,500 --> 00:36:45,579
stuff that does not and
1257
00:36:45,580 --> 00:36:47,799
to not lift up the influencers
1258
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,039
who do like
1259
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:50,879
promote that stuff.
1260
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:51,979
Because the people that promote
1261
00:36:51,980 --> 00:36:53,219
that, they're just leading people
1262
00:36:53,220 --> 00:36:55,119
astray, you know, Maybe in the short
1263
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:56,289
term.
1264
00:36:56,290 --> 00:36:57,589
You could have bounces in the market
1265
00:36:57,590 --> 00:36:58,569
that make those people feel like
1266
00:36:58,570 --> 00:37:00,129
they did a good thing by buying that
1267
00:37:00,130 --> 00:37:01,269
that stuff.
1268
00:37:01,270 --> 00:37:03,229
But a year or two later,
1269
00:37:03,230 --> 00:37:04,789
they look back and like, why did I
1270
00:37:04,790 --> 00:37:05,569
buy that?
1271
00:37:05,570 --> 00:37:07,509
Right. And so I think
1272
00:37:07,510 --> 00:37:09,829
the industry needs to rebuke
1273
00:37:09,830 --> 00:37:11,749
that stuff and to lift up the people
1274
00:37:11,750 --> 00:37:12,649
that are doing the right thing. Like
you
1275
00:37:12,650 --> 00:37:14,069
mentioned earlier, right.
1276
00:37:14,070 --> 00:37:15,989
There was a team going and looking
1277
00:37:15,990 --> 00:37:17,849
at at vulnerabilities in
1278
00:37:17,850 --> 00:37:18,719
in the industry.
1279
00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:20,259
Right? Like we should the industry
1280
00:37:20,260 --> 00:37:22,359
should be more so focused on that.
1281
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:23,939
Like, hey, like, lift these guys up,
1282
00:37:23,940 --> 00:37:25,719
like lift the guys up that are
1283
00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:27,579
trying to improve the industry
1284
00:37:27,580 --> 00:37:28,819
for everyone else.
1285
00:37:28,820 --> 00:37:30,839
Don't lift the guy's up that
1286
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:32,799
are just trying to like, you
1287
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:33,800
know,
1288
00:37:34,700 --> 00:37:36,319
you know that are just doing it.
1289
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,179
Yeah, they're just doing pump
1290
00:37:38,180 --> 00:37:39,219
and dumps. They're doing it for
1291
00:37:39,220 --> 00:37:40,419
attention. They're doing it further
1292
00:37:40,420 --> 00:37:42,099
ego, whatever.
1293
00:37:42,100 --> 00:37:43,339
Don't lift those guys up.
1294
00:37:43,340 --> 00:37:46,019
And I think the the market.
1295
00:37:46,020 --> 00:37:47,919
Is is is we're kind of at the
1296
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:49,879
point where the market is rebuking
1297
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,879
all this other stuff but for
1298
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,239
the new people that join like don't
1299
00:37:53,240 --> 00:37:54,439
fall into that stuff because you
1300
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,419
fall into it you're stuck there for
1301
00:37:56,420 --> 00:37:57,659
probably at least one to two years
1302
00:37:57,660 --> 00:37:59,039
before you come to your senses and
1303
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:00,040
come out of it
1304
00:38:00,670 --> 00:38:01,629
Yeah, exactly.
1305
00:38:01,630 --> 00:38:03,689
I mean, I just put this on my
1306
00:38:03,690 --> 00:38:05,549
ex profile for anyone that
1307
00:38:05,550 --> 00:38:06,949
wants to go and see and look back at
1308
00:38:06,950 --> 00:38:08,829
it at gaza underscore
1309
00:38:08,830 --> 00:38:10,429
jinx on ex if you're watching us on
1310
00:38:10,430 --> 00:38:12,609
Twitter and you don't follow me.
1311
00:38:12,610 --> 00:38:14,489
Like two, three years ago,
1312
00:38:14,490 --> 00:38:16,289
I was at the World Economic Forum in
1313
00:38:16,290 --> 00:38:18,129
Davos and it was like the first time
1314
00:38:18,130 --> 00:38:20,529
that they had a panel on crypto.
1315
00:38:20,530 --> 00:38:21,709
Brian Armstrong was on it, Anthony
1316
00:38:21,710 --> 00:38:22,829
Scaramucci,
1317
00:38:24,050 --> 00:38:26,269
Denal Dixon from Stellar,
1318
00:38:26,270 --> 00:38:27,589
Jenny Johnson from Franklin
1319
00:38:27,590 --> 00:38:28,669
Templeton as well and then South
1320
00:38:28,670 --> 00:38:30,289
Africa's Reserve Bank Governor.
1321
00:38:30,290 --> 00:38:32,349
And it was like two days after Trump
1322
00:38:32,350 --> 00:38:33,509
had launched the meme coin.
1323
00:38:33,510 --> 00:38:35,169
And just as he was about to be, you
1324
00:38:35,170 --> 00:38:37,029
know, inaugurated and I managed to
1325
00:38:37,030 --> 00:38:38,389
ask a question to Brian from the
1326
00:38:38,390 --> 00:38:39,689
floor, kind of saying, you know,
1327
00:38:39,690 --> 00:38:40,809
like Trump's gone and launched this
1328
00:38:40,810 --> 00:38:42,809
meme coin is he's diverted all
1329
00:38:42,810 --> 00:38:44,289
this capital and attention away from
1330
00:38:44,290 --> 00:38:45,989
that. Meanwhile, like people that
1331
00:38:45,990 --> 00:38:47,129
actually care about the industry
1332
00:38:47,130 --> 00:38:48,789
were pushing so hard for a Bitcoin
1333
00:38:48,790 --> 00:38:50,269
reserve. Do you think it undermines
1334
00:38:50,270 --> 00:38:51,289
it?
1335
00:38:51,290 --> 00:38:52,729
And, uh, Brian gave a really
1336
00:38:52,730 --> 00:38:54,609
eloquent response, but he didn't
1337
00:38:54,610 --> 00:38:56,589
quite call out like
1338
00:38:56,590 --> 00:38:58,269
what I was also trying to get him to
1339
00:38:58,270 --> 00:38:59,229
call out. And like.
1340
00:38:59,230 --> 00:39:00,669
Know Trump's meme coin, it's going
1341
00:39:00,670 --> 00:39:02,009
to be a black mark on the industry
1342
00:39:02,010 --> 00:39:03,829
and you can already see you know the
1343
00:39:03,830 --> 00:39:05,169
sharks are circling about this
1344
00:39:05,170 --> 00:39:06,749
already again you know like big
1345
00:39:06,750 --> 00:39:08,109
exposes I think are being written
1346
00:39:08,110 --> 00:39:09,929
and the amount of losses
1347
00:39:09,930 --> 00:39:11,989
that you know people
1348
00:39:11,990 --> 00:39:13,869
incurred by buying Trump's meme coin
1349
00:39:13,870 --> 00:39:14,789
thinking they were going to get rich
1350
00:39:14,790 --> 00:39:15,119
from it.
1351
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:16,679
Isn't it down like 90 something
1352
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:17,739
percent now?
1353
00:39:17,740 --> 00:39:19,519
I mean, it's like, and the Melania
1354
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,419
coin too. I mean like we don't, the
1355
00:39:21,420 --> 00:39:22,639
industry doesn't need to pretend
1356
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:23,879
like those things were good things.
1357
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,599
They were not, they were simply cash
1358
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:26,719
grabs. That's all they were.
1359
00:39:27,899 --> 00:39:29,239
And that's all the ever were.
1360
00:39:29,240 --> 00:39:30,479
I mean they were never going to ever
1361
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,039
be anything other than that.
1362
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:33,959
And so, you know, I guess it's
1363
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:35,479
hard like, you know, if you have a
1364
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:36,839
business and that business can be
1365
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,339
very dependent on, you know,
1366
00:39:39,340 --> 00:39:41,279
political favoring and whatnot.
1367
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:42,659
So like I guess I'm not going to sit
1368
00:39:42,660 --> 00:39:43,679
there and be like, well, if I'd been
1369
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:44,589
up there I would have.
1370
00:39:44,590 --> 00:39:46,529
Says something different, but you
1371
00:39:46,530 --> 00:39:48,509
know, like that stuff is launching
1372
00:39:48,510 --> 00:39:50,069
meme coins and Trump wasn't even the
1373
00:39:50,070 --> 00:39:51,589
only president that launched one.
1374
00:39:51,590 --> 00:39:52,469
Right. Like there were other ones
1375
00:39:52,470 --> 00:39:53,969
that did as well.
1376
00:39:53,970 --> 00:39:55,209
You know what? I feel like it did.
1377
00:39:55,210 --> 00:39:57,109
I feel like it kind of exposed the
1378
00:39:57,110 --> 00:39:58,929
industry for what it had become.
1379
00:39:58,930 --> 00:39:59,729
And it was.
1380
00:39:59,730 --> 00:40:01,809
And that
1381
00:40:01,810 --> 00:40:03,449
essentially marked the top.
1382
00:40:03,450 --> 00:40:05,009
I mean, yes, Bitcoin went a little
1383
00:40:05,010 --> 00:40:06,969
bit higher in Q4, like it normally
1384
00:40:06,970 --> 00:40:07,970
does.
1385
00:40:08,930 --> 00:40:10,570
But that essentially marked the top.
1386
00:40:11,710 --> 00:40:14,149
Bitcoin went to 109 on inauguration
1387
00:40:14,150 --> 00:40:16,479
day. And it only ever went to 126
1388
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:17,699
after that.
1389
00:40:17,700 --> 00:40:19,659
So in fact, like the day that Gary
1390
00:40:19,660 --> 00:40:21,959
Gensler resigned and
1391
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:23,279
the day the Trump took office,
1392
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:24,599
that's basically when the industry
1393
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:25,600
topped.
1394
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:27,439
So again, this is like one of those
1395
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,839
things where the
1396
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:31,499
things that people think are bullish
1397
00:40:31,500 --> 00:40:33,699
are not always bullish.
1398
00:40:33,700 --> 00:40:35,299
And the things people think are
1399
00:40:35,300 --> 00:40:36,359
bearish are not bearish.
1400
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,099
For instance, now we're
1401
00:40:39,100 --> 00:40:41,179
going into midterms, right?
1402
00:40:41,180 --> 00:40:42,520
And a lot of people are like, I
1403
00:40:42,521 --> 00:40:44,879
don't know, like, if the, uh...
1404
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,799
If the Republicans lose the House or
1405
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,119
the Senate, like, you know, the
1406
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:49,320
crypto industry is screwed.
1407
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:51,549
But.
1408
00:40:51,550 --> 00:40:53,489
What if the market might not think
1409
00:40:53,490 --> 00:40:54,709
that? The market might think, you
1410
00:40:54,710 --> 00:40:56,689
know what, now that we have
1411
00:40:56,690 --> 00:40:57,909
maybe a little bit more checks and
1412
00:40:57,910 --> 00:40:59,010
balances going on,
1413
00:41:00,190 --> 00:41:01,949
perhaps the crypto industry isn't
1414
00:41:01,950 --> 00:41:03,569
going to just exist to rug people,
1415
00:41:03,570 --> 00:41:05,429
right? And so I
1416
00:41:05,430 --> 00:41:08,129
would say that like, be open-minded.
1417
00:41:08,130 --> 00:41:09,709
Any investor will tell you it makes
1418
00:41:09,710 --> 00:41:12,189
sense to be invested through
1419
00:41:12,190 --> 00:41:14,149
both Republican and
1420
00:41:14,150 --> 00:41:15,409
Democratic presidents, at least in
1421
00:41:15,410 --> 00:41:16,889
the stock market long-term, right.
1422
00:41:16,890 --> 00:41:19,189
Like if you stay out of the market,
1423
00:41:19,190 --> 00:41:21,109
because
1424
00:41:21,110 --> 00:41:23,149
you know, you don't like who's
1425
00:41:23,150 --> 00:41:24,569
in office, like you're probably
1426
00:41:24,570 --> 00:41:26,529
going to miss out on some gains,
1427
00:41:26,530 --> 00:41:28,389
right, eventually.
1428
00:41:28,390 --> 00:41:29,709
So think about that with Bitcoin.
1429
00:41:29,710 --> 00:41:31,069
I know people might be scared of
1430
00:41:31,070 --> 00:41:33,469
like, what happens if the
1431
00:41:33,470 --> 00:41:35,829
political who's-in-power
1432
00:41:35,830 --> 00:41:37,789
changes, but
1433
00:41:37,790 --> 00:41:39,929
Bitcoin did fine under
1434
00:41:39,930 --> 00:41:41,909
Obama and it did fine
1435
00:41:41,910 --> 00:41:44,029
in Trump's first term, right?
1436
00:41:44,030 --> 00:41:45,969
So Democratic president, Republican
1437
00:41:45,970 --> 00:41:47,529
president, Bitcoin did find.
1438
00:41:47,530 --> 00:41:49,349
It was actually
1439
00:41:49,350 --> 00:41:51,259
in... You know, a really remarkable
1440
00:41:51,260 --> 00:41:53,339
chart is...
1441
00:41:53,340 --> 00:41:54,379
They did.
1442
00:41:54,380 --> 00:41:55,380
What?
1443
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:56,519
I said, let's see it.
1444
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,339
Yeah, look at this chart.
1445
00:41:58,340 --> 00:42:00,619
This is the presidential return
1446
00:42:00,620 --> 00:42:02,839
paths for for
1447
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,219
Bitcoin and I want to show you
1448
00:42:05,220 --> 00:42:07,919
look at um
1449
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,199
Okay, look, at barack obama
1450
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,339
and trump Trump's
1451
00:42:12,340 --> 00:42:13,939
first term bitcoin did amazingly
1452
00:42:13,940 --> 00:42:15,919
well and by the end of those two
1453
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:17,639
terms bitcoin basically was up about
1454
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,499
the same amount Okay, so it
1455
00:42:19,500 --> 00:42:21,019
didn't matter if you were invested
1456
00:42:21,020 --> 00:42:22,899
in bitcoin while obama was in office
1457
00:42:22,900 --> 00:42:24,619
or while trump was in Office bitcoin
1458
00:42:24,620 --> 00:42:26,949
did very very well Now look
1459
00:42:26,950 --> 00:42:29,109
at Biden and
1460
00:42:29,110 --> 00:42:30,949
Donald Trump's second term.
1461
00:42:30,950 --> 00:42:33,969
As measured from Inauguration Day,
1462
00:42:33,970 --> 00:42:35,789
Bitcoin is at the same level
1463
00:42:35,790 --> 00:42:37,829
that was at under Biden's term at
1464
00:42:37,830 --> 00:42:39,969
this exact same time,
1465
00:42:39,970 --> 00:42:40,949
which is remarkable.
1466
00:42:40,950 --> 00:42:43,509
So I mean, it shows you that Bitcoin
1467
00:42:43,510 --> 00:42:45,409
doesn't exist to
1468
00:42:45,410 --> 00:42:47,129
serve either political party.
1469
00:42:47,130 --> 00:42:49,209
It's done really well under
1470
00:42:49,210 --> 00:42:50,529
both political parties, and it's
1471
00:42:50,530 --> 00:42:51,929
done really poorly under both
1472
00:42:51,930 --> 00:42:53,369
political parties, but you could
1473
00:42:53,370 --> 00:42:55,229
argue that Like Bitcoin is
1474
00:42:55,230 --> 00:42:56,249
outside of that.
1475
00:42:56,250 --> 00:42:57,889
And so I wouldn't base decisions
1476
00:42:57,890 --> 00:42:59,929
either on who's in power,
1477
00:42:59,930 --> 00:43:01,789
right? Because it's dependent
1478
00:43:01,790 --> 00:43:03,629
on so much more than who holds
1479
00:43:03,630 --> 00:43:05,749
office. And arguably,
1480
00:43:05,750 --> 00:43:07,749
the meme coin launches by
1481
00:43:07,750 --> 00:43:09,209
the presidents essentially took
1482
00:43:09,210 --> 00:43:11,189
whatever win we had out from the
1483
00:43:11,190 --> 00:43:12,569
sales of the industry in the last
1484
00:43:12,570 --> 00:43:13,729
cycle.
1485
00:43:13,730 --> 00:43:15,649
Yeah, yeah, sadly, sadly
1486
00:43:15,650 --> 00:43:17,069
true. And I mean, like just an
1487
00:43:17,070 --> 00:43:18,889
indic, like indicative
1488
00:43:18,890 --> 00:43:20,489
of the influence of politics.
1489
00:43:20,490 --> 00:43:22,549
And it's, you know, it's it's
1490
00:43:22,550 --> 00:43:23,569
largely self serving.
1491
00:43:23,570 --> 00:43:24,849
I mean I'm not a politician, so I
1492
00:43:24,850 --> 00:43:27,329
will I will pull my daggers out and
1493
00:43:27,330 --> 00:43:28,189
throw them at people.
1494
00:43:28,190 --> 00:43:30,309
But yeah, I don't love politicians
1495
00:43:30,310 --> 00:43:31,569
for this thing.
1496
00:43:31,570 --> 00:43:32,769
Look, Ben, we've had you on for a
1497
00:43:32,770 --> 00:43:34,269
long time, I think just to wrap up
1498
00:43:34,270 --> 00:43:35,129
the show.
1499
00:43:35,130 --> 00:43:36,889
I wanted to get a sense of kind of
1500
00:43:36,890 --> 00:43:38,729
your your outlook going forward.
1501
00:43:38,730 --> 00:43:39,829
We've seen so many people in the
1502
00:43:39,830 --> 00:43:41,849
industry kind pivot to AI because.
1503
00:43:41,850 --> 00:43:43,249
I mean, let's be honest, it's an
1504
00:43:43,250 --> 00:43:44,709
exciting industry.
1505
00:43:44,710 --> 00:43:46,329
If you've played around with any of
1506
00:43:46,330 --> 00:43:48,269
the frontier models, depending on
1507
00:43:48,270 --> 00:43:50,169
what you prefer using, the amount
1508
00:43:50,170 --> 00:43:51,969
of things a layman can do, you can
1509
00:43:51,970 --> 00:43:53,269
launch websites, you can build
1510
00:43:53,270 --> 00:43:54,270
applications.
1511
00:43:55,070 --> 00:43:57,049
You can do pretty much
1512
00:43:57,050 --> 00:43:58,949
anything you set your mind to,
1513
00:43:58,950 --> 00:44:00,709
and AI tools can help you do that.
1514
00:44:00,710 --> 00:44:01,769
A lot of people are branching out
1515
00:44:01,770 --> 00:44:03,409
into creating content on that.
1516
00:44:03,410 --> 00:44:04,569
Are you interested in doing this
1517
00:44:04,570 --> 00:44:05,729
kind of thing, or are you still very
1518
00:44:05,730 --> 00:44:07,509
much sticking in your lane, doing
1519
00:44:07,510 --> 00:44:08,459
what you're doing?
1520
00:44:08,460 --> 00:44:10,199
I mean, I use AI all the time.
1521
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,079
I mean like, every day I use it.
1522
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,179
Like, you know, I invest in AI.
1523
00:44:15,180 --> 00:44:16,999
I invest a lot in like
1524
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,219
the stock market and I try,
1525
00:44:19,220 --> 00:44:20,779
I mean if you're invested in the
1526
00:44:20,780 --> 00:44:22,679
stock market, right, the S&P, the
1527
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,639
NASDAQ, you're
1528
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:25,879
you're, you are invested in AI,
1529
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:27,239
right? Because a lot of these things
1530
00:44:27,240 --> 00:44:29,059
are market cap weighted.
1531
00:44:29,060 --> 00:44:30,979
And so you're basically, you
1532
00:44:30,980 --> 00:44:32,299
own NVIDIA, right?
1533
00:44:32,300 --> 00:44:34,209
You own Google and...
1534
00:44:34,210 --> 00:44:35,969
And all these companies, Microsoft,
1535
00:44:35,970 --> 00:44:37,549
you own these companies that are
1536
00:44:37,550 --> 00:44:40,049
heavily doing stuff in AI.
1537
00:44:40,050 --> 00:44:41,889
So yeah, like I've
1538
00:44:41,890 --> 00:44:43,849
absolutely ridden the AI
1539
00:44:43,850 --> 00:44:44,850
wave.
1540
00:44:45,890 --> 00:44:47,529
I talk about it some, I mean, I just
1541
00:44:47,530 --> 00:44:48,689
made a video the other day on the
1542
00:44:48,690 --> 00:44:50,789
stock market and I talk
1543
00:44:50,790 --> 00:44:52,669
a little bit about it.
1544
00:44:52,670 --> 00:44:54,429
But yeah, I as I've said before,
1545
00:44:54,430 --> 00:44:56,469
never let a good bubble go to waste.
1546
00:44:56,470 --> 00:44:57,649
I mean there's always gonna be
1547
00:44:57,650 --> 00:44:59,089
bubbles, don't let them go to ways,
1548
00:44:59,090 --> 00:45:01,169
make money and then look
1549
00:45:01,170 --> 00:45:02,149
for the next one, right?
1550
00:45:02,150 --> 00:45:03,150
Look for the the next. Um.
1551
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,179
So, yeah, I mean, I think that there
1552
00:45:06,180 --> 00:45:07,939
has been a big pivot and it's OK to
1553
00:45:07,940 --> 00:45:09,899
pivot. I mean businesses have
1554
00:45:09,900 --> 00:45:10,879
to pivot all the time.
1555
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:12,099
That doesn't mean that crypto is
1556
00:45:12,100 --> 00:45:13,239
going to die.
1557
00:45:13,240 --> 00:45:14,939
It just means that, you know, for
1558
00:45:14,940 --> 00:45:16,799
now, AI, especially
1559
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:18,259
for the miners, AI is more
1560
00:45:18,260 --> 00:45:20,139
profitable and you can't blame them
1561
00:45:20,140 --> 00:45:21,459
for for doing what's more
1562
00:45:21,460 --> 00:45:22,599
profitable. Everyone would probably
1563
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:23,699
make the same decision if they were
1564
00:45:23,700 --> 00:45:24,700
in their shoes.
1565
00:45:25,310 --> 00:45:26,409
Yeah, for sure.
1566
00:45:26,410 --> 00:45:27,589
Ben, thanks so much for joining us
1567
00:45:27,590 --> 00:45:28,889
today. I really, really love this
1568
00:45:28,890 --> 00:45:30,609
conversation. I hope you will agree
1569
00:45:30,610 --> 00:45:32,289
to come back sometime soon.
1570
00:45:32,290 --> 00:45:34,029
Hopefully when things get super
1571
00:45:34,030 --> 00:45:35,329
exciting or super scary in the
1572
00:45:35,330 --> 00:45:37,309
market, we can get you on to try and
1573
00:45:37,310 --> 00:45:38,309
break them down. And if you don't
1574
00:45:38,310 --> 00:45:40,289
already, go ahead and follow Ben on
1575
00:45:40,290 --> 00:45:42,949
X. It's Benjamin Cowan and then
1576
00:45:42,950 --> 00:45:44,869
at ITC underscore crypto if
1577
00:45:44,870 --> 00:45:46,349
you want to follow Into the
1578
00:45:46,350 --> 00:45:47,129
Cryptoverse as well.
1579
00:45:47,130 --> 00:45:48,849
And of course, if you don't, already
1580
00:45:48,850 --> 00:45:49,949
go and check out their YouTube
1581
00:45:49,950 --> 00:45:51,530
channel Into the crypto verse.
1582
00:45:52,919 --> 00:45:54,299
Subscribe there. If you're watching
1583
00:45:54,300 --> 00:45:55,839
the starting block today on YouTube,
1584
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,839
please subscribe to the channel Or
1585
00:45:57,840 --> 00:45:59,699
if you're, watching us on x like and
1586
00:45:59,700 --> 00:46:00,499
read to you. We've got a load of
1587
00:46:00,500 --> 00:46:01,839
viewers on the show today So a big
1588
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:03,179
shout out to you ben.
1589
00:46:03,180 --> 00:46:04,639
Thanks so much for joining us Yeah,
1590
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:05,779
thanks harming pleasure to be here.
1591
00:46:05,780 --> 00:46:06,659
I look forward to being here in the
1592
00:46:06,660 --> 00:46:08,479
future Awesome,
1593
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:09,879
uh, we will be back with the show
1594
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:11,719
tomorrow. We got a couple of big
1595
00:46:11,720 --> 00:46:13,559
guests coming up Um, I can
1596
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,199
tell you that we're gonna have cz on
1597
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:16,919
the Show again on thursday for a big
1598
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:17,959
announcement.
1599
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:19,519
Uh, it has something very
1600
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:20,919
interesting to do with the united
1601
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:22,519
states That's all I'm going to say.
1602
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:24,419
So set a reminder on your calendar.
1603
00:46:24,420 --> 00:46:25,659
We're gonna be broadcasting at 10
1604
00:46:25,660 --> 00:46:27,539
a.m. Eastern time on Thursday.
1605
00:46:27,540 --> 00:46:29,439
We've got CZ on the show for a big
1606
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:30,439
announcement.
1607
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:31,879
Don't miss it, but we will be back
1608
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:32,659
tomorrow.
1609
00:46:32,660 --> 00:46:34,359
Usual time, come and join us.
1610
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:35,760
Until then, we'll see you later.
