00:00:00
Speaker 1: He's a friend of mine who's a Cleveland Browns fan who came out here and did the sideline microphones when the Broncos played the Cleveland Browns. So we each took one sideline as a lesser important thing, but still maybe worth mentioning.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: He used to run the CIA. His name is Michael Morrel.
00:00:16
Speaker 1: We met when he wrote a book called The Great War of Our Time about Islamo fascism and Islamo and Islamic terrorism. And he joins us today to talk about some things going on in the world.
00:00:28
Speaker 2: Hi, Michael, thanks for making time for us.
00:00:31
Speaker 3: Always great to be with you.
00:00:32
Speaker 2: Ross.
00:00:33
Speaker 1: I want to start with you, Ron, and my first question I'm gonna ask you is not sort of macro strategy and stuff. It is from a spy perspective. How difficult is it when the Iranian government turns off phones and internet for the United States to actually know what's happening there.
00:00:54
Speaker 3: So intelligence agencies have insight into places all over the world. It's more difficult to have insight in places where we don't have a diplomatic presence, But difficult does not mean impossible. So I assume that my former organization and similar organizations around the world. Particularly Masad Israel's intelligence organization has some pretty good insight to what's actually happening on the ground. It is very difficult for somebody not in one of those organizations to have an understanding what's happening, because once you turn the Internet off, all the information that you need to understand it is gone. So it's been a real struggle for those of us not in government anymore.
00:01:46
Speaker 1: You were in Cia for a long time, and Iran has had this regime for your entire professional career. I mean, they had the shaw while you were alive, but not while you were in They've had this So how do you think about this regime? How do you think about Iran? And as a very specific question, do you believe it is significantly in America's strategic interest to have the regime overthrown enough in America's interest that we should take part in it.
00:02:23
Speaker 3: So this is a regime that when it came to power nineteen seventy nine, when it came to power, was wildly popular in Iran. I'd say eighty percent of the people, eighty percent of Iranians at that point supported the regime. Over the years, its poor performance economically its political repression, which we just saw a wave of and kind of in the middle of here, that popularity has eroded significantly where I'd say today, before before this recent violence in the streets, I'd say it was flipped eighty percent of the of Iranians opposed to this regime, So a wild swing.
00:03:15
Speaker 2: Politically.
00:03:15
Speaker 3: This regime needs to go away for the benefit of Iranians in the future of Iran. Now isn't an America's interest for the regime to go away? Absolutely?
00:03:26
Speaker 1: Why?
00:03:27
Speaker 3: Number One, it supports terrorism throughout the region. It had a until recently till the Israelis destroyed it. They had a web of proxies around the region. In the years running up to October seventh. The Iranians provided weapons, money, training to Hamas. No indication that they knew about October seventh before it happened, but they were the ones that created the capability that Hamas showed us on October seventh. Their stated policy is for the state of Israel to disappear. It threatens it threatens our allies in the region, Saudi Arabia, you know, not only Israel, but Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar. So it is absolutely in our interest for it to go away. Now what does that mean in terms of our policy? You know, is it a good idea to actually help here? That's debatable in two ways. Number one, whether whether we have actually the ability to make a difference on the ground. You know, there's a there's a debate going on right now between Iran experts about whether US military action would help the protesters or actually undermine them. And you can make a credible argument on both sides. So the issue is not whether this regime going away is in our interest absolutely. The question is can can we do anything to make a difference, or at the end of the day, is this going to be decided by the Iranian people. My guess it's the latter, But I'm certainly open to arguments on the former. Quick follow up, and then I assume Ross will probably want to get to Greenland a little bit as well.
00:05:14
Speaker 1: But is it safe to believe that Iran has stopped killing protesters?
00:05:21
Speaker 2: So my.
00:05:23
Speaker 3: Best analysis this morning, you know, based on what information is available to me. You know, some of that is open source, some of that is people in other parts of the world that I'm talking to, is that it looks like the regime has successfully put down the protests, and they've done that with brutal repression. Think about think about security forces standing on a truck with a machine gun gunning people down. It looks like there's been multiple executions in the last couple of days, but it looks like the regime is getting this under control, and it looks like the regime is going to survive. I think they will come out of this even weaker than they went into it. They will lose even more support, and this is going to happen again and again until the regime does go away.
00:06:18
Speaker 2: Wow.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: I would ask you if you've got friends in Masad who are telling you things.
00:06:24
Speaker 2: But I know you want to answer the question, so I'm not going to ask you.
00:06:27
Speaker 1: I think that's what you just said is remarkable because if you heard President Trump yesterday, he didn't say, but he sort of implied that the government of Iran was going to not go ahead with a planned execution and stop killing protesters because they were afraid of the threat of Donald Trump.
00:06:46
Speaker 2: With the implication.
00:06:47
Speaker 1: Again, Trump didn't say this, but the implication to me was protests are still going on and the regime is just backing off a little because they're afraid of Trump, you know, lobbing a tomahawk or something or another GINSU missile like he used to take out Sola money. But you're saying something very different. You're saying the regime has already one. So if they're not killing protesters, it's because there's no more protesters out there, or not very many more.
00:07:11
Speaker 3: I think I think we're at the beginning of the end here, right. I don't think they the regime has one. I think they are in the process of winning. I think they have turned the corner. Wow, that's terrible news. But we shouldn't be surprised, right because as when you have a regime like this, as long as the security forces stay on your side, you cannot lose. It is only when you lose the security forces. It's only when their loyalty goes away. It's only when they stop shooting protesters or worse yet, for you, if you're the regime joined the protesters and turn their guns in the other direction. As long as you have the security forces, you win.
00:07:57
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:07:58
Speaker 1: Great, great point. And On is one of the countries in which the tie between the security forces and the regime is the strongest. There is almost zero chance of them turning against the regime for a variety of reasons that we don't have time for now.
00:08:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'd say just one really quick one. The IRGC, which supports the regime, which is the weapon that keeps them in power, has deep, deep economic interest in the country. So they've got a massive amount to lose if this regime falls.
00:08:29
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm just about out of time.
00:08:30
Speaker 1: But as Gina said, I want to ask you about Greenland, and I want to make this really about strategy and just give me, you know.
00:08:35
Speaker 2: One or two sentences.
00:08:37
Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about the way Trump is talking about Greenland. What I want to know is Greenland strategically important in the way that President Trump is talking about.
00:08:50
Speaker 3: Yes. Yes, the Arctic is a future contested area between really the United States in Russia. China thinks that it has a role to play there. You know, that's a little bit difficult to understand, but they want to. They're trying to, but they don't have the geographic access. But absolutely it is important in terms of resources, navigation. From a military perspective, it's one of the most strategically important places on the planet.
00:09:25
Speaker 1: Michael Morrell former Deputy Director, twice acting director of the CIA, and managing partner of ard World Ardwolf Global Solutions. If you need some global intelligence research, John Michael, if your.
00:09:38
Speaker 2: Guy, thanks so much for making time for us.
00:09:40
Speaker 1: I wish you and your Cleveland Brown's a better year next year, and you better be rooting for the Broncos on Saturday.
00:09:47
Speaker 2: Thanks Ross, Thanks Tina. Take care, take care,
Speaker 1: He's a friend of mine who's a Cleveland Browns fan who came out here and did the sideline microphones when the Broncos played the Cleveland Browns. So we each took one sideline as a lesser important thing, but still maybe worth mentioning.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: He used to run the CIA. His name is Michael Morrel.
00:00:16
Speaker 1: We met when he wrote a book called The Great War of Our Time about Islamo fascism and Islamo and Islamic terrorism. And he joins us today to talk about some things going on in the world.
00:00:28
Speaker 2: Hi, Michael, thanks for making time for us.
00:00:31
Speaker 3: Always great to be with you.
00:00:32
Speaker 2: Ross.
00:00:33
Speaker 1: I want to start with you, Ron, and my first question I'm gonna ask you is not sort of macro strategy and stuff. It is from a spy perspective. How difficult is it when the Iranian government turns off phones and internet for the United States to actually know what's happening there.
00:00:54
Speaker 3: So intelligence agencies have insight into places all over the world. It's more difficult to have insight in places where we don't have a diplomatic presence, But difficult does not mean impossible. So I assume that my former organization and similar organizations around the world. Particularly Masad Israel's intelligence organization has some pretty good insight to what's actually happening on the ground. It is very difficult for somebody not in one of those organizations to have an understanding what's happening, because once you turn the Internet off, all the information that you need to understand it is gone. So it's been a real struggle for those of us not in government anymore.
00:01:46
Speaker 1: You were in Cia for a long time, and Iran has had this regime for your entire professional career. I mean, they had the shaw while you were alive, but not while you were in They've had this So how do you think about this regime? How do you think about Iran? And as a very specific question, do you believe it is significantly in America's strategic interest to have the regime overthrown enough in America's interest that we should take part in it.
00:02:23
Speaker 3: So this is a regime that when it came to power nineteen seventy nine, when it came to power, was wildly popular in Iran. I'd say eighty percent of the people, eighty percent of Iranians at that point supported the regime. Over the years, its poor performance economically its political repression, which we just saw a wave of and kind of in the middle of here, that popularity has eroded significantly where I'd say today, before before this recent violence in the streets, I'd say it was flipped eighty percent of the of Iranians opposed to this regime, So a wild swing.
00:03:15
Speaker 2: Politically.
00:03:15
Speaker 3: This regime needs to go away for the benefit of Iranians in the future of Iran. Now isn't an America's interest for the regime to go away? Absolutely?
00:03:26
Speaker 1: Why?
00:03:27
Speaker 3: Number One, it supports terrorism throughout the region. It had a until recently till the Israelis destroyed it. They had a web of proxies around the region. In the years running up to October seventh. The Iranians provided weapons, money, training to Hamas. No indication that they knew about October seventh before it happened, but they were the ones that created the capability that Hamas showed us on October seventh. Their stated policy is for the state of Israel to disappear. It threatens it threatens our allies in the region, Saudi Arabia, you know, not only Israel, but Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar. So it is absolutely in our interest for it to go away. Now what does that mean in terms of our policy? You know, is it a good idea to actually help here? That's debatable in two ways. Number one, whether whether we have actually the ability to make a difference on the ground. You know, there's a there's a debate going on right now between Iran experts about whether US military action would help the protesters or actually undermine them. And you can make a credible argument on both sides. So the issue is not whether this regime going away is in our interest absolutely. The question is can can we do anything to make a difference, or at the end of the day, is this going to be decided by the Iranian people. My guess it's the latter, But I'm certainly open to arguments on the former. Quick follow up, and then I assume Ross will probably want to get to Greenland a little bit as well.
00:05:14
Speaker 1: But is it safe to believe that Iran has stopped killing protesters?
00:05:21
Speaker 2: So my.
00:05:23
Speaker 3: Best analysis this morning, you know, based on what information is available to me. You know, some of that is open source, some of that is people in other parts of the world that I'm talking to, is that it looks like the regime has successfully put down the protests, and they've done that with brutal repression. Think about think about security forces standing on a truck with a machine gun gunning people down. It looks like there's been multiple executions in the last couple of days, but it looks like the regime is getting this under control, and it looks like the regime is going to survive. I think they will come out of this even weaker than they went into it. They will lose even more support, and this is going to happen again and again until the regime does go away.
00:06:18
Speaker 2: Wow.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: I would ask you if you've got friends in Masad who are telling you things.
00:06:24
Speaker 2: But I know you want to answer the question, so I'm not going to ask you.
00:06:27
Speaker 1: I think that's what you just said is remarkable because if you heard President Trump yesterday, he didn't say, but he sort of implied that the government of Iran was going to not go ahead with a planned execution and stop killing protesters because they were afraid of the threat of Donald Trump.
00:06:46
Speaker 2: With the implication.
00:06:47
Speaker 1: Again, Trump didn't say this, but the implication to me was protests are still going on and the regime is just backing off a little because they're afraid of Trump, you know, lobbing a tomahawk or something or another GINSU missile like he used to take out Sola money. But you're saying something very different. You're saying the regime has already one. So if they're not killing protesters, it's because there's no more protesters out there, or not very many more.
00:07:11
Speaker 3: I think I think we're at the beginning of the end here, right. I don't think they the regime has one. I think they are in the process of winning. I think they have turned the corner. Wow, that's terrible news. But we shouldn't be surprised, right because as when you have a regime like this, as long as the security forces stay on your side, you cannot lose. It is only when you lose the security forces. It's only when their loyalty goes away. It's only when they stop shooting protesters or worse yet, for you, if you're the regime joined the protesters and turn their guns in the other direction. As long as you have the security forces, you win.
00:07:57
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:07:58
Speaker 1: Great, great point. And On is one of the countries in which the tie between the security forces and the regime is the strongest. There is almost zero chance of them turning against the regime for a variety of reasons that we don't have time for now.
00:08:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'd say just one really quick one. The IRGC, which supports the regime, which is the weapon that keeps them in power, has deep, deep economic interest in the country. So they've got a massive amount to lose if this regime falls.
00:08:29
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm just about out of time.
00:08:30
Speaker 1: But as Gina said, I want to ask you about Greenland, and I want to make this really about strategy and just give me, you know.
00:08:35
Speaker 2: One or two sentences.
00:08:37
Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about the way Trump is talking about Greenland. What I want to know is Greenland strategically important in the way that President Trump is talking about.
00:08:50
Speaker 3: Yes. Yes, the Arctic is a future contested area between really the United States in Russia. China thinks that it has a role to play there. You know, that's a little bit difficult to understand, but they want to. They're trying to, but they don't have the geographic access. But absolutely it is important in terms of resources, navigation. From a military perspective, it's one of the most strategically important places on the planet.
00:09:25
Speaker 1: Michael Morrell former Deputy Director, twice acting director of the CIA, and managing partner of ard World Ardwolf Global Solutions. If you need some global intelligence research, John Michael, if your.
00:09:38
Speaker 2: Guy, thanks so much for making time for us.
00:09:40
Speaker 1: I wish you and your Cleveland Brown's a better year next year, and you better be rooting for the Broncos on Saturday.
00:09:47
Speaker 2: Thanks Ross, Thanks Tina. Take care, take care,
