Jacob Studwell: Hey everyone, welcome to the Predicted Podcast. I'm Jacob Studwell. I'm here with Garth Yuckum. Garth, it's a choose your own adventure today. We're gonna do the cold open. Do you prefer AI ad again? Or do you want to go with Laura Loomer? Those are your two options. Yeah, I knew it. You couldn't resist it. I know. I knew it.
Garth: AI ad any day of the week. Any day of the week.
Jacob Studwell: All right, here we go.
Garth: Too ear I don't have enough coffee for a conspiracy theory.
Jacob Studwell: all right, let's rip it.
Garth: my gosh. So wait, so who's behind this ad?
Jacob Studwell: So I assume it's the same like Ted Cruz group that did the last one, right? It must be. Yeah, that that was I I mean, I have lot of editing notes. the score really didn't pick up until like midway through. It was very quiet to start.
Garth: I th I was wondering if anybody was gonna talk.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. And like nobody did talk, but it was fine if you had music. Like you don't have to talk if you had music. But yeah, that was honestly it was really funny. I will say that. Like
Garth: I mean it was a montage of of the great evil people of the world, if you will.
Jacob Studwell: Right, right. And then of course the American evil people in the eyes of Ted Cruz as well.
Garth: Yes. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: Well they s I guess they ramped up like perfectly. Like it was kinda like
Garth: It was brilliant. Yeah, it was just kept going and going and going. It was like something from the Brady Bunch or I don't know, like it was brilliant.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah. And by the way, this post was from Team Fishback, so that's why it says they know Fishback is on the w verge of winning. But by the way, you know
Garth: Or maybe they just maybe they just like the ad and they just wanted to run it. It was brilliant.
Jacob Studwell: They clearly did like the ad because they wanna post it everywhere. and I don't know, they said ten million dollar ad against James Fishback. I that's gotta be just pulled out of their butt, right? There's it's 'cause it's it said it was during the World Cup final. So I believe that it's expensive. I'm not saying it's not. It was in the World Cup final in Florida, right? So certainly somewhat expensive, but ten million dollars? I don't I don't think so. I
Garth: I hope not. Will you hope so? Yeah. Yeah. Seems a high. I mean that's more expensive than a Super Bowl ad.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, like no, it's around what a Super Bowl ad costs. Like I think so, yeah. Something like that for thirty seconds. That's what this was? Yeah, thirty seconds. There's no way. I mean also costing basically nothing to produce, clearly, so
Garth: that's ten b ten million now? Okay. Yeah. I was gonna say, can you be imagine being the person who produced that via AI and goes, we just spent 10 million on that? On what I just made? I know. But that's what makes it great. And everybody's the whole time.
Jacob Studwell: And and we haven't talked about the dam Belzarian of it all. Like that it's them two together. Like Everyone's just peachy. It is just the funnest party ever. and then the cake at the end. And the is it the Ayatollah who's cutting the cake with the sword?
Garth: Yes. Yes, the cake. Yeah, with the big sword. He's like this. It's great. I mean it's it's
Jacob Studwell: It's really good. So I'm just gonna say now that these AI ads are going to be a big feature in 2028. I I think I had assumed that we would maybe be past them by 2028, but it seems like we're actually gonna be in the perfect realm for them and they won't be embarrassing yet. So we're probably gonna see a lot of these.
Garth: But I mean, isn't this like i i where where we in movies have parodies? So you've got Star War Star Wars and then next thing you know you've got space balls or hotshots making fun of Top Gun. you know, it it's i it's I it's almost it's so bad that it's great.
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. Yeah, yeah. No, it comes in waves too. Like the movie parodies come in waves. So I think this is the start of a wave, not the end of a wave. And I don't know, just watch it like I guess be on top of your parents and parents' parents for hey, look at this ad, how funny is this? How great is this? And then it's like, Mom, that's AI. I mean this one I feel like everyone knows. I don't
Garth: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah that that's pretty clear AI. Can we get the birthday cake one more time, like when we sign off today?
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, I was just about to say, I think let's just watch the whole thing again. I feel like that's that's where we're at right now. We have to watch it again. Here we go. All right, let's do it. Is is my volume just not up? There we go. The laughing is I love that from Ilhan.
Garth: That that that scene right there's the best. Here we go.
Jacob Studwell: That split. Yes, that's everyone ducked out.
Garth: it's an Israel cake. I completely missed that. I Okay. Okay.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, i it's an anti-Israel cake, yes, yes, yes. Wait, so I have a question about these people. Hold on. The squad. No, I got that. Who is
Garth: The squad. There's the squad.
Jacob Studwell: Who is this? okay, got it. Got it. I don't know what code pink is. Okay, so okay. I'm glad we're on the it maybe it's some Florida thing. I don't know.
Garth: It's the protesters. Either. End the occupation. Hmm. No idea.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, I got that. But no, I can we we need to watch this next cut. This is the best part of it by far. This
Garth: Yes. Really? That is so great.
Jacob Studwell: my goodness. Okay. I'd
Garth: I hope that wins like a webby or something like that for best like online ad or
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, definitely should win all the AI awards for sure. We I think we do need to have awards for AI. I mean I peer over my friend's shoulder and they're like watching some cherry raise a cherry kid and I don't know. The the the fruit AI stuff is is out of control. if and if you don't know, your your kids will get there, I assume at some point.
Garth: Definitely. Definitely. Mm-hmm. Nothing.
Jacob Studwell: Sadly, sadly. anything notable from Arizona last night, which is like, yeah.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah, yeah, it was it was kind of a non starter, to begin with. I I think everything laid out the way it was supposed to. you know, we've got a a showdown in in the first district, which is a great toss-up. the sixth is the same way. big's delivered for Trump, so now that we're gonna have kind of a fun general for the governor's mansion.
Jacob Studwell: That's exciting.
Garth: but other than that, I mean it's it's exciting, but it's you know it's not that exciting.
Jacob Studwell: It's not that exciting. I mean, I could tell you right now, come November, we're not gonna be talking about the Arizona Governor's Mansion. I just I doubt it. Seriously, seriously doubt it. yeah. All right, that's fair. and let's just I don't we haven't really spoken too much about Lindsey Graham and the replacement. Seems like everyone's on Darlene, his sister, who has now replaced him in the Senate for the rest of this term. But
Garth: No, definitely not. Definitely not. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Question is Russell Fry, Ralph Norva Norman, is there any shot here of an actual competitive race or everyone just kinda on on Darling?
Garth: I mean, Trump backing Darlene didn't really ward anybody off from joining the race. So I mean Nancy Mace decided not to jump in. That was probably wise after her what fifth place p finish in the governor's primary. no, I think I think Fry is interesting. He's gonna straddle the the fence, put his his butt on two two chairs and
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, which was surprising, I thought. Sure. Mm-hmm.
Garth: That's probably wise.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. I thought Fry was interesting. Right now you can get him at eleven cents.
Garth: But at the same time I think that also diminishes his possibility. I mean, because if he does leave then Republicans can't replace him and they basically give up a Republican seat to the Democrats.
Jacob Studwell: In a moment that they badly need every single seat, so it's a weird choice.
Garth: Yeah. So that you know, like so maybe he's just raising his raising his name recognition. Norman, I mean, he really wants the seat and you know, within like hours of Graham's passing on s that Saturday, which July eleventh, he's asking Trump for for you know, the endorsement. That's not a good look.
Jacob Studwell: No, it's it's not great, especially because everybody else was so heartbroken and and lovey all over Lindsay and Ralph was like, Can I but can I have the sea? Yeah. It's kinda like when you're when your aunt dies and you're like, Can I get that dollhouse though? But that dollhouse though.
Garth: I know. Yeah, that's the girl's like, Can I get a job? Can I have a job? I'm qualified. Exact. Yeah, exactly. So I you know, I I think that I mean the problem with with Darlene is that she's a novice effectively. I mean she's a commissioner and been doing that for what six or seven years in in in the South Carolina government. but
Jacob Studwell: Right.
Garth: You know, she hasn't really r run a campaign. So what happens when, you know, the rubber hits the road and she actually has to campaign? Or is it is does she's just you know s we always talk about hugging or getting close to Trump, right? Does she just get close to her brother and that helps her sail through by just merely name recognition?
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. I I think I mean, you know, like Firestarters, the Dura Flame, my data's the little like wood chip blocks. I mean, giving yourself a Trump endorsement out the gate is like the greatest fire starter you could have. And I don't really think you need to run all that crazy of a campaign once you get a Trump endorsement in a in a GOP primary, right? There's
Garth: No, I I I don't think so I don't think so. And and you know, the playbook seems to be, you know, well, I'm Lindsay's brother, so I'm just gonna continue his legacy. You keep his legacy, then why would voters say, Well, okay, she's there's no reason to think badly towards that person, right? Yeah or or think that they're not gonna be qu gonna do a decent job. And it's a temporary position, right? I mean, effectively. So
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. It's actually perfect. She gets all of his legacy. She gets all of his opinions. And she gets none of the baggage. Like, it is literally a bait and switch. So right now you
Garth: Yes. I mean un until until she starts speaking, right? I mean effectively, right?
Jacob Studwell: I mean, yes, Lindsey Graham was like a very good talker, and that's why he went on meet the press every week, and that's why he was booked when he when he he died, unfortunately. But yeah, Darlene, it's a good point. I I don't know, we'll see. is right now you can get her at 67 cents. I'd lean more towards the no contracts, just because you can see this blowing up.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Much easier than like a one in three chance, I think. Maybe blows up a little bit more often than that, but the pricing seems in the right realm, just because there are some real names in the mix. and this if this does turn into a competitive Rog Mary, I mean, it's not like Trump's undefeated, right? It's not like Trump always picks the winner. but hey, giving Darlene a good shot here.
Garth: Sure. Right, it's true. Yeah, you know, I I'm I'm just wondering what behind the scenes, you know, politic and w politing will be occurring. will Trump Trump or the Trump administration quietly ask ask everybody to move out of the way? Well, you know, because you know, if you've got Norman and you've got Fry, you've got guys who have the campaigning noose, who have done it before, and who who can really rally and have a a machine in place, will
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: You know, will they have a chance to run? I think is r really kind of that question here.
Jacob Studwell: I will say GOP coordination is not on the top of strengths right now for them. If you look at the House and the Senate, like you couldn't have two different leaders that are just on completely different pages. So I don't trust that the White House is going to be getting everyone in line. I don't trust that everyone's going to be on the same page. it it doesn't help when you're in the majority. It never does. You're always on a different page because you have power.
Garth: This is true. Right. No.
Jacob Studwell: And yeah, yeah, it's not like this will become a competitive Senate seat or anything in the general, but it i this could easily kinda blow up and people are on different pages and they end up spending a lot of money for no reason in a Senate seat that just really should everyone should just kind of figure it out and agree.
Garth: Right. Right. Exact yeah, exactly. So that's why why I'm thinking that the politicking in the in the closed doors is gonna be what what really solves this. Because I mean, you you get to a you know, a general campaign, she doesn't decides not to debate the other person. So then it all just becomes name recognition. Lindsay's sister, done. It's like the letlow in letlow story in in Louisiana. her husband had passed away, she took over the seat. And now she ran and uh's what gonna be senator, I believe. Julie Letlow. So, you know, that's a a great example of of of that playbook.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, wow. Yes, right. Yeah, it's a good point. I think we we talk about the best jobs in the world, right? Being a senator. You gotta put up there, you know, get us get yourself a sibling that you can cozy up to in the Senate. Get yourself a husband or a wife that's in the Senate. Then you then y you just have to survive it a little bit. I mean, not saying there's definitely trials and tribulations being close to a political campaign.
Garth: Yep. Yep. Yeah. Hey, there you go. Exactly. Definitely. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: But if they have a career that's double digits, and you just happen to be there when they happen to pass. Yeah, right, right, exactly. It's the Noah Eagle Iron Eagle situation, right? I don't know if you're you're privy to the play by play announcers in in the US, but Noah Eagle's literally my age and he's a national broadcaster at this point because hey, his dad did it his whole life. He he was in the booth with him, he knows exactly what to do.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Learn learning all along the way. Right. Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: so I yeah, the the Nepo baby stuff is fun, but so yeah, Darlene again 67 cents, nose 34 cents. you're you're not wrong about the backrooms. I I would I I could see that. I'm curious at 67 cents. Again, this is probably gonna be a shorter timeline contract as well. So if you're looking for a larger cash out, getting 67 cents that you know could cash pretty quickly.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: is a rare opportunity. So that's why I keep coming back. I I said I'd lean on the no a little bit more. We talked through it. I don't know. I it it seems like Darlene's just inevitable.
Garth: Yeah, I mean i i it's it it's kind of gotten a a little quiet. I mean, obviously Monday and Sunday we had the announcements, we had a little bit of polling, which meant it was just Prime for backroom politicking, in my opinion. it's you know, because w why would the voters know who to pick? Right? There hasn't been a campaign. It's just more of a like, who do you like best? You know, like who's your buddy at the at the school schoolyard? And they're like, well, I like Bob. He's got great hair. You know, he gave me his applesauce once.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right. Exactly. Yeah. And and also everybody just talks so glowingly about Lindsey Graham. It really helps Darlene. Like when somebody passes, we all praise them. We all talk about them a lot. They're in the news. And by the way, he's got a sister. I don't know if you know, but they were close.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Yep. And Trump likes her. Seal of approval.
Jacob Studwell: right, so you mentioned polling. Let's move over quickly. There was a UNH poll from July 15th to July 20th in Maine, U.S. Senate Maine 2026. Troy Jackson 49%. Susan Collins 46%. This is a good start for Troy Jackson. Pretty hard to argue there. I definitely would not run away with this number. I would not think, wow. this is. About where Platner was after the first round of scandal, or the second round of scandal. What how many rounds was it? I don't know. It was one of the rounds. And so this is a very good number. again, I think we we've talked about in the past. Collins is going to make a surge. The the closer we get to November, the the more of a surge Collins will make.
Garth: Three or four.
Jacob Studwell: And the better argument she'll have for independent voters. Now, in the same vein, US identified third service member believed to have been killed in an Iranian attack, Angel S. Rampersad 28 of New York. we have now service members that are dying in a war that Susan Collins, I don't know, more or less stamped okay.
Garth: I say I I ended up with aspirations.
Jacob Studwell: It's i is the war her main bugaboo or is it something else?
Garth: I think it's something else. I it's gonna be the economy at the end of the day. I you know, I find it Jackson to be kind of interesting, 'cause he's an exlogger. I mean, obviously he was former president of the Senate in Maine. But he kind of really flamed out this this spring in his original campaign. And now all of a sudden he's being fed as the next grand platiner. I think that's drawing it straws. it just feels like that. And I I think as as you said earlier about Collins going on a run later. I think that it's just this is in the news now and this is what we're talking about. I don't see I I mean, this is a a personal feeling. I just th how the platinum mess just kind of exploded. And it's gonna be really hard to recover from that. I mean y you gotta Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. It's like, is there no karma back on like the Democrats are just gonna swap in? I mean, this is kinda how we felt about Kamala. This this is like, what is this all gonna work out? You gave her a hundred and nine days, 107 days, whatever her book title was. And maybe it's better for a smaller race that you have that much time. And like you said, you kind of flamed out, so maybe Troy's got some power up front.
Garth: Yeah, yeah, one hundred percent. Yeah, why? Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: But I don't know. I think you're right. It's it's easier to see it going against the Democrats than going for. Right now it's sixty forty. You can get we still have Graham Platiner's picture actually in the in the Democratic slot. I guess it's not official, so all right. We'll wait until Saturday and then we'll s swap in. But sixty cents for Graham Platiner, forty cents against the Democrats. I definitely lean towards the forty cents if we're if we're picking if we're picking here.
Garth: It's not official. We gotta wait till Saturday. then we'll swap in. Yeah. It's it I mean you can't go against Collins. She's battle tested. Like seriously battle tested and I just I don't like it.
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. all right, let's move quickly to AOC isn't ready to rule out a 2028 presidential bid per politico. Surprise, surprise. Right now she is 55 cents to run for president, 42 cents to run for Senate. The more we update our priors, the more we see the DSA successful traction on anyone who loves to call themselves a democratic socialist, she's gonna run for president, right?
Garth: She has to.
Jacob Studwell: She she absolutely has to. I mean, this is her chance. Honestly, of all the prices we could talk about, all the prices we have talked about, 55 cents for AOC running for president is an absolute bargain, an absolute steal. You're getting almost double your money if somebody who is very likely to make a strong push for the presidential nominee in 2028. And again, I don't think you have to wait that long. I think she's going to announce.
Garth: Yeah. I mean i it's like it's if she's gonna take the Bernie mantle, right?
Jacob Studwell: In December.
Garth: And I mean she has to run. He ran. He ran several times. I mean, all it's going to do is amplify her message. Then she can go on, run for the Senate or run, you know, be house speaker or whatever, you know, whatever the ambitions are to, you know, even if she doesn't really want to be president and all the hubbub that goes with that. But like just to amplify her message, you have to run in twenty twenty eight. It's an open primary. What do you have to lose? Everybody knows what she's gonna say.
Jacob Studwell: It's it's such an easy 30% for her. She starts at the highest. I mean, again, Gavin's right now the the leader in the clubhouse, if you will. He's at 21 cents. Everyone's all over John Ossoff, who's at 16 cents. That's all good. But when you start off the race, when AFC's got a big head start, and she's at 12 cents.
Garth: Yeah. He's the scar at the moment. Yeah. Did you see also fundraising numbers from Q2?
Jacob Studwell: The only fundraising numbers I have in front of me are Peltola, who's at fifteen point five million, and Dan Sullivan's at 3.6 million. So
Garth: Okay. Yeah, the Democrats the Democrats in the Senate were cleaning up, but like I think he's got what did I say, forty seven million cash on hand and he brought in twenty something. I mean, the dude is is crushing it. The
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, if that's not enough money to run for president, like man, he's gonna he's gonna stash a lot of that. Like he does not need to spend that much money at all.
Garth: No, no, I think he's gonna he's gonna crush Collins and the and the general. I it's he just he looks good, he sounds good, he's bringing in the money, he's doing all the right things, you know, to win a Senate campaign and then boost yourself for a presidential.
Jacob Studwell: So so these are the fundraising totals for the whole year from the New York Times. The Peltola number was right. I said 15.5 denzel and 3.6 million. then Texas is the big headliner. James Talarigo, who I see ads cons pretty consistently across multiple of my devices, and I'm nowhere near Texas. Talerigo brought in fifty-four point five million dollars to Ken Paxton's. Three point nine million dollars. What? And he pro and he spent more because he was in a long running competitive primary process.
Garth: Just Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I know. With Trump's backing.
Jacob Studwell: And my goodness. So John Ossa thirty-three point four million dollars this year to Mike Collins three point two million dollars. And by the way, I know the national apparatuses of the Republican Party have a lot of money. Do they have this much money? If you just add up all the candidates on the Yeah, they do. Yeah, right, I know. Right. Yeah.
Garth: Three, three. So far. That's what it was, okay. Yeah. I think they do. I think they do. So okay, what what did what did Elon Musk drop last in twenty twenty four, what two hundred and fifty million or something like that? Casually. And it could have been more. they clearly have money, but I mean the I think that these numbers tell a different story. They talk about enthusiasm for the candidates.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, casually. And it could have been more. Mm-hmm.
Garth: you know, when the big dogs come out and drop the big cash loads for the Republicans, I mean that'll be just save your ass money. And it it's not like the it might work, but if you're drawing that much money just directly to your campaign, yeah, that's some serious strength. That's like so yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right, was it show? I mean, but just think about how many AI ads Awesop can run. So many. Just so many. you know what on that note? The ad was so good. Let's run it back to end one more time. Let's do it. Come on. Come on. Here we go. Here we go. All right. Let me just make sure the here we go.
Garth: You could buy. my goodness. One more time. One more time. that that smile. It's a million dollar smile.
Jacob Studwell: Who laughs? Ha ha ha.
Garth: there it is. There it is.
Jacob Studwell: They can't get Putin to smile at AI.
Garth: There it is.
Jacob Studwell: I didn't notice the pouring the sprite on the on the cake. my god. All right. thanks for watching that for a third time with us all. this has been the predicted podcast. Jacob Studwell, Garth Yuckham, have a great week. And it's almost August, guys. We're almost up to the Michigan race. So I think next week we'll deep dive into all things Michigan, prepare ourselves for that.
Garth: Ha ha ha. Yes. I know. There's been some big movements in the last couple of days.
Jacob Studwell: Big stuff. I I think yeah, w we'll save it. Tune in next time. And thanks for everyone who who comments, likes, tunes in on YouTube. We have great visuals on YouTube, youtube.com slash app predicted official, x.com slash app predicted pod, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, Deezer, Amazon Podcasts. maybe text me. I don't know. I'll send you the link. Don't worry. all right. Have a good one. Thanks everyone.
Garth: We'll save it.
Garth: AI ad any day of the week. Any day of the week.
Jacob Studwell: All right, here we go.
Garth: Too ear I don't have enough coffee for a conspiracy theory.
Jacob Studwell: all right, let's rip it.
Garth: my gosh. So wait, so who's behind this ad?
Jacob Studwell: So I assume it's the same like Ted Cruz group that did the last one, right? It must be. Yeah, that that was I I mean, I have lot of editing notes. the score really didn't pick up until like midway through. It was very quiet to start.
Garth: I th I was wondering if anybody was gonna talk.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. And like nobody did talk, but it was fine if you had music. Like you don't have to talk if you had music. But yeah, that was honestly it was really funny. I will say that. Like
Garth: I mean it was a montage of of the great evil people of the world, if you will.
Jacob Studwell: Right, right. And then of course the American evil people in the eyes of Ted Cruz as well.
Garth: Yes. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: Well they s I guess they ramped up like perfectly. Like it was kinda like
Garth: It was brilliant. Yeah, it was just kept going and going and going. It was like something from the Brady Bunch or I don't know, like it was brilliant.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah. And by the way, this post was from Team Fishback, so that's why it says they know Fishback is on the w verge of winning. But by the way, you know
Garth: Or maybe they just maybe they just like the ad and they just wanted to run it. It was brilliant.
Jacob Studwell: They clearly did like the ad because they wanna post it everywhere. and I don't know, they said ten million dollar ad against James Fishback. I that's gotta be just pulled out of their butt, right? There's it's 'cause it's it said it was during the World Cup final. So I believe that it's expensive. I'm not saying it's not. It was in the World Cup final in Florida, right? So certainly somewhat expensive, but ten million dollars? I don't I don't think so. I
Garth: I hope not. Will you hope so? Yeah. Yeah. Seems a high. I mean that's more expensive than a Super Bowl ad.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, like no, it's around what a Super Bowl ad costs. Like I think so, yeah. Something like that for thirty seconds. That's what this was? Yeah, thirty seconds. There's no way. I mean also costing basically nothing to produce, clearly, so
Garth: that's ten b ten million now? Okay. Yeah. I was gonna say, can you be imagine being the person who produced that via AI and goes, we just spent 10 million on that? On what I just made? I know. But that's what makes it great. And everybody's the whole time.
Jacob Studwell: And and we haven't talked about the dam Belzarian of it all. Like that it's them two together. Like Everyone's just peachy. It is just the funnest party ever. and then the cake at the end. And the is it the Ayatollah who's cutting the cake with the sword?
Garth: Yes. Yes, the cake. Yeah, with the big sword. He's like this. It's great. I mean it's it's
Jacob Studwell: It's really good. So I'm just gonna say now that these AI ads are going to be a big feature in 2028. I I think I had assumed that we would maybe be past them by 2028, but it seems like we're actually gonna be in the perfect realm for them and they won't be embarrassing yet. So we're probably gonna see a lot of these.
Garth: But I mean, isn't this like i i where where we in movies have parodies? So you've got Star War Star Wars and then next thing you know you've got space balls or hotshots making fun of Top Gun. you know, it it's i it's I it's almost it's so bad that it's great.
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. Yeah, yeah. No, it comes in waves too. Like the movie parodies come in waves. So I think this is the start of a wave, not the end of a wave. And I don't know, just watch it like I guess be on top of your parents and parents' parents for hey, look at this ad, how funny is this? How great is this? And then it's like, Mom, that's AI. I mean this one I feel like everyone knows. I don't
Garth: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah that that's pretty clear AI. Can we get the birthday cake one more time, like when we sign off today?
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, I was just about to say, I think let's just watch the whole thing again. I feel like that's that's where we're at right now. We have to watch it again. Here we go. All right, let's do it. Is is my volume just not up? There we go. The laughing is I love that from Ilhan.
Garth: That that that scene right there's the best. Here we go.
Jacob Studwell: That split. Yes, that's everyone ducked out.
Garth: it's an Israel cake. I completely missed that. I Okay. Okay.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, i it's an anti-Israel cake, yes, yes, yes. Wait, so I have a question about these people. Hold on. The squad. No, I got that. Who is
Garth: The squad. There's the squad.
Jacob Studwell: Who is this? okay, got it. Got it. I don't know what code pink is. Okay, so okay. I'm glad we're on the it maybe it's some Florida thing. I don't know.
Garth: It's the protesters. Either. End the occupation. Hmm. No idea.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, I got that. But no, I can we we need to watch this next cut. This is the best part of it by far. This
Garth: Yes. Really? That is so great.
Jacob Studwell: my goodness. Okay. I'd
Garth: I hope that wins like a webby or something like that for best like online ad or
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, definitely should win all the AI awards for sure. We I think we do need to have awards for AI. I mean I peer over my friend's shoulder and they're like watching some cherry raise a cherry kid and I don't know. The the the fruit AI stuff is is out of control. if and if you don't know, your your kids will get there, I assume at some point.
Garth: Definitely. Definitely. Mm-hmm. Nothing.
Jacob Studwell: Sadly, sadly. anything notable from Arizona last night, which is like, yeah.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah, yeah, it was it was kind of a non starter, to begin with. I I think everything laid out the way it was supposed to. you know, we've got a a showdown in in the first district, which is a great toss-up. the sixth is the same way. big's delivered for Trump, so now that we're gonna have kind of a fun general for the governor's mansion.
Jacob Studwell: That's exciting.
Garth: but other than that, I mean it's it's exciting, but it's you know it's not that exciting.
Jacob Studwell: It's not that exciting. I mean, I could tell you right now, come November, we're not gonna be talking about the Arizona Governor's Mansion. I just I doubt it. Seriously, seriously doubt it. yeah. All right, that's fair. and let's just I don't we haven't really spoken too much about Lindsey Graham and the replacement. Seems like everyone's on Darlene, his sister, who has now replaced him in the Senate for the rest of this term. But
Garth: No, definitely not. Definitely not. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Question is Russell Fry, Ralph Norva Norman, is there any shot here of an actual competitive race or everyone just kinda on on Darling?
Garth: I mean, Trump backing Darlene didn't really ward anybody off from joining the race. So I mean Nancy Mace decided not to jump in. That was probably wise after her what fifth place p finish in the governor's primary. no, I think I think Fry is interesting. He's gonna straddle the the fence, put his his butt on two two chairs and
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, which was surprising, I thought. Sure. Mm-hmm.
Garth: That's probably wise.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. I thought Fry was interesting. Right now you can get him at eleven cents.
Garth: But at the same time I think that also diminishes his possibility. I mean, because if he does leave then Republicans can't replace him and they basically give up a Republican seat to the Democrats.
Jacob Studwell: In a moment that they badly need every single seat, so it's a weird choice.
Garth: Yeah. So that you know, like so maybe he's just raising his raising his name recognition. Norman, I mean, he really wants the seat and you know, within like hours of Graham's passing on s that Saturday, which July eleventh, he's asking Trump for for you know, the endorsement. That's not a good look.
Jacob Studwell: No, it's it's not great, especially because everybody else was so heartbroken and and lovey all over Lindsay and Ralph was like, Can I but can I have the sea? Yeah. It's kinda like when you're when your aunt dies and you're like, Can I get that dollhouse though? But that dollhouse though.
Garth: I know. Yeah, that's the girl's like, Can I get a job? Can I have a job? I'm qualified. Exact. Yeah, exactly. So I you know, I I think that I mean the problem with with Darlene is that she's a novice effectively. I mean she's a commissioner and been doing that for what six or seven years in in in the South Carolina government. but
Jacob Studwell: Right.
Garth: You know, she hasn't really r run a campaign. So what happens when, you know, the rubber hits the road and she actually has to campaign? Or is it is does she's just you know s we always talk about hugging or getting close to Trump, right? Does she just get close to her brother and that helps her sail through by just merely name recognition?
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. I I think I mean, you know, like Firestarters, the Dura Flame, my data's the little like wood chip blocks. I mean, giving yourself a Trump endorsement out the gate is like the greatest fire starter you could have. And I don't really think you need to run all that crazy of a campaign once you get a Trump endorsement in a in a GOP primary, right? There's
Garth: No, I I I don't think so I don't think so. And and you know, the playbook seems to be, you know, well, I'm Lindsay's brother, so I'm just gonna continue his legacy. You keep his legacy, then why would voters say, Well, okay, she's there's no reason to think badly towards that person, right? Yeah or or think that they're not gonna be qu gonna do a decent job. And it's a temporary position, right? I mean, effectively. So
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. It's actually perfect. She gets all of his legacy. She gets all of his opinions. And she gets none of the baggage. Like, it is literally a bait and switch. So right now you
Garth: Yes. I mean un until until she starts speaking, right? I mean effectively, right?
Jacob Studwell: I mean, yes, Lindsey Graham was like a very good talker, and that's why he went on meet the press every week, and that's why he was booked when he when he he died, unfortunately. But yeah, Darlene, it's a good point. I I don't know, we'll see. is right now you can get her at 67 cents. I'd lean more towards the no contracts, just because you can see this blowing up.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Much easier than like a one in three chance, I think. Maybe blows up a little bit more often than that, but the pricing seems in the right realm, just because there are some real names in the mix. and this if this does turn into a competitive Rog Mary, I mean, it's not like Trump's undefeated, right? It's not like Trump always picks the winner. but hey, giving Darlene a good shot here.
Garth: Sure. Right, it's true. Yeah, you know, I I'm I'm just wondering what behind the scenes, you know, politic and w politing will be occurring. will Trump Trump or the Trump administration quietly ask ask everybody to move out of the way? Well, you know, because you know, if you've got Norman and you've got Fry, you've got guys who have the campaigning noose, who have done it before, and who who can really rally and have a a machine in place, will
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: You know, will they have a chance to run? I think is r really kind of that question here.
Jacob Studwell: I will say GOP coordination is not on the top of strengths right now for them. If you look at the House and the Senate, like you couldn't have two different leaders that are just on completely different pages. So I don't trust that the White House is going to be getting everyone in line. I don't trust that everyone's going to be on the same page. it it doesn't help when you're in the majority. It never does. You're always on a different page because you have power.
Garth: This is true. Right. No.
Jacob Studwell: And yeah, yeah, it's not like this will become a competitive Senate seat or anything in the general, but it i this could easily kinda blow up and people are on different pages and they end up spending a lot of money for no reason in a Senate seat that just really should everyone should just kind of figure it out and agree.
Garth: Right. Right. Exact yeah, exactly. So that's why why I'm thinking that the politicking in the in the closed doors is gonna be what what really solves this. Because I mean, you you get to a you know, a general campaign, she doesn't decides not to debate the other person. So then it all just becomes name recognition. Lindsay's sister, done. It's like the letlow in letlow story in in Louisiana. her husband had passed away, she took over the seat. And now she ran and uh's what gonna be senator, I believe. Julie Letlow. So, you know, that's a a great example of of of that playbook.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, wow. Yes, right. Yeah, it's a good point. I think we we talk about the best jobs in the world, right? Being a senator. You gotta put up there, you know, get us get yourself a sibling that you can cozy up to in the Senate. Get yourself a husband or a wife that's in the Senate. Then you then y you just have to survive it a little bit. I mean, not saying there's definitely trials and tribulations being close to a political campaign.
Garth: Yep. Yep. Yeah. Hey, there you go. Exactly. Definitely. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: But if they have a career that's double digits, and you just happen to be there when they happen to pass. Yeah, right, right, exactly. It's the Noah Eagle Iron Eagle situation, right? I don't know if you're you're privy to the play by play announcers in in the US, but Noah Eagle's literally my age and he's a national broadcaster at this point because hey, his dad did it his whole life. He he was in the booth with him, he knows exactly what to do.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Learn learning all along the way. Right. Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: so I yeah, the the Nepo baby stuff is fun, but so yeah, Darlene again 67 cents, nose 34 cents. you're you're not wrong about the backrooms. I I would I I could see that. I'm curious at 67 cents. Again, this is probably gonna be a shorter timeline contract as well. So if you're looking for a larger cash out, getting 67 cents that you know could cash pretty quickly.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: is a rare opportunity. So that's why I keep coming back. I I said I'd lean on the no a little bit more. We talked through it. I don't know. I it it seems like Darlene's just inevitable.
Garth: Yeah, I mean i i it's it it's kind of gotten a a little quiet. I mean, obviously Monday and Sunday we had the announcements, we had a little bit of polling, which meant it was just Prime for backroom politicking, in my opinion. it's you know, because w why would the voters know who to pick? Right? There hasn't been a campaign. It's just more of a like, who do you like best? You know, like who's your buddy at the at the school schoolyard? And they're like, well, I like Bob. He's got great hair. You know, he gave me his applesauce once.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right. Exactly. Yeah. And and also everybody just talks so glowingly about Lindsey Graham. It really helps Darlene. Like when somebody passes, we all praise them. We all talk about them a lot. They're in the news. And by the way, he's got a sister. I don't know if you know, but they were close.
Garth: Mm-hmm. Yep. And Trump likes her. Seal of approval.
Jacob Studwell: right, so you mentioned polling. Let's move over quickly. There was a UNH poll from July 15th to July 20th in Maine, U.S. Senate Maine 2026. Troy Jackson 49%. Susan Collins 46%. This is a good start for Troy Jackson. Pretty hard to argue there. I definitely would not run away with this number. I would not think, wow. this is. About where Platner was after the first round of scandal, or the second round of scandal. What how many rounds was it? I don't know. It was one of the rounds. And so this is a very good number. again, I think we we've talked about in the past. Collins is going to make a surge. The the closer we get to November, the the more of a surge Collins will make.
Garth: Three or four.
Jacob Studwell: And the better argument she'll have for independent voters. Now, in the same vein, US identified third service member believed to have been killed in an Iranian attack, Angel S. Rampersad 28 of New York. we have now service members that are dying in a war that Susan Collins, I don't know, more or less stamped okay.
Garth: I say I I ended up with aspirations.
Jacob Studwell: It's i is the war her main bugaboo or is it something else?
Garth: I think it's something else. I it's gonna be the economy at the end of the day. I you know, I find it Jackson to be kind of interesting, 'cause he's an exlogger. I mean, obviously he was former president of the Senate in Maine. But he kind of really flamed out this this spring in his original campaign. And now all of a sudden he's being fed as the next grand platiner. I think that's drawing it straws. it just feels like that. And I I think as as you said earlier about Collins going on a run later. I think that it's just this is in the news now and this is what we're talking about. I don't see I I mean, this is a a personal feeling. I just th how the platinum mess just kind of exploded. And it's gonna be really hard to recover from that. I mean y you gotta Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. It's like, is there no karma back on like the Democrats are just gonna swap in? I mean, this is kinda how we felt about Kamala. This this is like, what is this all gonna work out? You gave her a hundred and nine days, 107 days, whatever her book title was. And maybe it's better for a smaller race that you have that much time. And like you said, you kind of flamed out, so maybe Troy's got some power up front.
Garth: Yeah, yeah, one hundred percent. Yeah, why? Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: But I don't know. I think you're right. It's it's easier to see it going against the Democrats than going for. Right now it's sixty forty. You can get we still have Graham Platiner's picture actually in the in the Democratic slot. I guess it's not official, so all right. We'll wait until Saturday and then we'll s swap in. But sixty cents for Graham Platiner, forty cents against the Democrats. I definitely lean towards the forty cents if we're if we're picking if we're picking here.
Garth: It's not official. We gotta wait till Saturday. then we'll swap in. Yeah. It's it I mean you can't go against Collins. She's battle tested. Like seriously battle tested and I just I don't like it.
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right. all right, let's move quickly to AOC isn't ready to rule out a 2028 presidential bid per politico. Surprise, surprise. Right now she is 55 cents to run for president, 42 cents to run for Senate. The more we update our priors, the more we see the DSA successful traction on anyone who loves to call themselves a democratic socialist, she's gonna run for president, right?
Garth: She has to.
Jacob Studwell: She she absolutely has to. I mean, this is her chance. Honestly, of all the prices we could talk about, all the prices we have talked about, 55 cents for AOC running for president is an absolute bargain, an absolute steal. You're getting almost double your money if somebody who is very likely to make a strong push for the presidential nominee in 2028. And again, I don't think you have to wait that long. I think she's going to announce.
Garth: Yeah. I mean i it's like it's if she's gonna take the Bernie mantle, right?
Jacob Studwell: In December.
Garth: And I mean she has to run. He ran. He ran several times. I mean, all it's going to do is amplify her message. Then she can go on, run for the Senate or run, you know, be house speaker or whatever, you know, whatever the ambitions are to, you know, even if she doesn't really want to be president and all the hubbub that goes with that. But like just to amplify her message, you have to run in twenty twenty eight. It's an open primary. What do you have to lose? Everybody knows what she's gonna say.
Jacob Studwell: It's it's such an easy 30% for her. She starts at the highest. I mean, again, Gavin's right now the the leader in the clubhouse, if you will. He's at 21 cents. Everyone's all over John Ossoff, who's at 16 cents. That's all good. But when you start off the race, when AFC's got a big head start, and she's at 12 cents.
Garth: Yeah. He's the scar at the moment. Yeah. Did you see also fundraising numbers from Q2?
Jacob Studwell: The only fundraising numbers I have in front of me are Peltola, who's at fifteen point five million, and Dan Sullivan's at 3.6 million. So
Garth: Okay. Yeah, the Democrats the Democrats in the Senate were cleaning up, but like I think he's got what did I say, forty seven million cash on hand and he brought in twenty something. I mean, the dude is is crushing it. The
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, if that's not enough money to run for president, like man, he's gonna he's gonna stash a lot of that. Like he does not need to spend that much money at all.
Garth: No, no, I think he's gonna he's gonna crush Collins and the and the general. I it's he just he looks good, he sounds good, he's bringing in the money, he's doing all the right things, you know, to win a Senate campaign and then boost yourself for a presidential.
Jacob Studwell: So so these are the fundraising totals for the whole year from the New York Times. The Peltola number was right. I said 15.5 denzel and 3.6 million. then Texas is the big headliner. James Talarigo, who I see ads cons pretty consistently across multiple of my devices, and I'm nowhere near Texas. Talerigo brought in fifty-four point five million dollars to Ken Paxton's. Three point nine million dollars. What? And he pro and he spent more because he was in a long running competitive primary process.
Garth: Just Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I know. With Trump's backing.
Jacob Studwell: And my goodness. So John Ossa thirty-three point four million dollars this year to Mike Collins three point two million dollars. And by the way, I know the national apparatuses of the Republican Party have a lot of money. Do they have this much money? If you just add up all the candidates on the Yeah, they do. Yeah, right, I know. Right. Yeah.
Garth: Three, three. So far. That's what it was, okay. Yeah. I think they do. I think they do. So okay, what what did what did Elon Musk drop last in twenty twenty four, what two hundred and fifty million or something like that? Casually. And it could have been more. they clearly have money, but I mean the I think that these numbers tell a different story. They talk about enthusiasm for the candidates.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, casually. And it could have been more. Mm-hmm.
Garth: you know, when the big dogs come out and drop the big cash loads for the Republicans, I mean that'll be just save your ass money. And it it's not like the it might work, but if you're drawing that much money just directly to your campaign, yeah, that's some serious strength. That's like so yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right, was it show? I mean, but just think about how many AI ads Awesop can run. So many. Just so many. you know what on that note? The ad was so good. Let's run it back to end one more time. Let's do it. Come on. Come on. Here we go. Here we go. All right. Let me just make sure the here we go.
Garth: You could buy. my goodness. One more time. One more time. that that smile. It's a million dollar smile.
Jacob Studwell: Who laughs? Ha ha ha.
Garth: there it is. There it is.
Jacob Studwell: They can't get Putin to smile at AI.
Garth: There it is.
Jacob Studwell: I didn't notice the pouring the sprite on the on the cake. my god. All right. thanks for watching that for a third time with us all. this has been the predicted podcast. Jacob Studwell, Garth Yuckham, have a great week. And it's almost August, guys. We're almost up to the Michigan race. So I think next week we'll deep dive into all things Michigan, prepare ourselves for that.
Garth: Ha ha ha. Yes. I know. There's been some big movements in the last couple of days.
Jacob Studwell: Big stuff. I I think yeah, w we'll save it. Tune in next time. And thanks for everyone who who comments, likes, tunes in on YouTube. We have great visuals on YouTube, youtube.com slash app predicted official, x.com slash app predicted pod, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, Deezer, Amazon Podcasts. maybe text me. I don't know. I'll send you the link. Don't worry. all right. Have a good one. Thanks everyone.
Garth: We'll save it.
