00:00:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to sharper square presented by polymarket we are part of the volume podcast network this is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention i am chad millman i am joined as always by my co-host my bff my companion my compadre professional better simon hunter hello.
00:00:25
Speaker 2: Simon chad sorry about your cubs my friend Dude, it's rough.
00:00:33
Speaker 3: You know, I was thinking about it this morning.
00:00:35
Speaker 1: We had an MVP year with PCA. He went 40-40. Those are historic things. I'm going to take the good away from it. We had a lot of challenges throughout the year. There are things to improve. I'm only positive about this team. I wish I could take like all the, you know, there's all these White Sox videos going around about the players celebrating and they're glorious and they are so South Side of Chicago within that personality. I wish I loved the White Sox the way I love the Cubs. I wish I could get on the bandwagon. I'm going to be happy for the White Sox, but like I'm not getting Chicago joy out of it.
00:01:21
Speaker 3: I'll move on.
00:01:21
Speaker 1: I will say, also I got Case Keenum. So you can't have everything. I will say I loved the answer that Bryce Harper gave about what happens when you make a mistake and how you rally and move on. And then the next day he's hitting a bomb for the Phillies in a huge win. Like to me, I've always loved Bryce Harper. This to me just made him so much more approachable, in how he conveys himself to the community.
00:01:57
Speaker 3: Big fan.
00:01:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, really fun Phillies win that you're alluding to here. Obviously, anytime you have your two top guys go back-to-back home runs in the playoffs, it's euphoric. That's why we love playoff baseball. It's also a sickening feeling. I'm enjoying it, but it's also one of the things I hate about playoff baseball so much. You live and die so much pitch-to-pitch. Oh, yeah. Such a stressful– and we talked– I mean, the Cubs being back-to-back 10 o'clock games, I feel so bad for the diehard fans. Just staying up late to watch your teams get smoked after, you know, 160 games. It's tough. But I was joking with a buddy. I really love the Northeast fan base. Like, we're just– I mean, we're just angry. I just love back and forth. And I've really enjoyed Chicago back and forth between Chicago and Philly fans this last week. And I was saying, I just wish Chicago was in our division. Like I wish there was a rotation NFL of divisions. Cause I always say, I wish the Patriots were in my division. Like I love talking smack to pitch fans. My pitch fans are going to remember whoever's a fan of this show. I never will ever go on Twitter and blast the team that they're going to get blown out and talk smack to them. I did for the Patriots, the Superbowl, just because of their fan base. Like I would never be that loud unless I knew it was going to be right. And it's just fun. Like it's fun messing with the Patriots fan base. I feel the same with Chicago. Like, It's been really fun messing with them. So, yeah, I really was hoping for, obviously, a Phillies-Chicago baseball series. And that's gone. Now I've got to hope the next best thing is Phillies versus Milwaukee. So me and Matt Mitch are going to get after it. But, yeah, that Cubs season, like you said, was a really fun season. Just baseball is brutal, man. The wild card round. At least it's not one game. I always say that. Thank God it's three games. But, yeah, to get swept, though, too. I mean, the Phillies, I feel lucky that we didn't get swept. But you never know.
00:03:48
Speaker 1: Chicago fans are just not nearly as angry as Philly fans.
00:03:53
Speaker 2: Not true.
00:03:55
Speaker 3: I've never had that experience.
00:03:57
Speaker 2: Bring up Caleb Williams to a Chicago fan being zesty, and you will get a lot of pushback. Hey, this guy's tough. And the whole thing. Again, it's all about Chicago fans.
00:04:09
Speaker 3: Guy, don't talk about Caleb Williams.
00:04:11
Speaker 2: Exactly.
00:04:12
Speaker 3: Keep Caleb Williams' name out of your mouth.
00:04:16
Speaker 2: Chicago's got some angry fans, Chad. Don't sell them short.
00:04:20
Speaker 3: I'm mostly thinking about Cubs fans.
00:04:24
Speaker 1: They always have such low expectations in any win. So many Cubs fans are barely Cubs fans because they're about the experience around Wrigley, right? White Sox fans are angry. White Sox fans are Southside fans. Nobody wants to go to the Southside. Nobody wants to go. to their stadium. They're the second-class team in the second city. They got reasons to be angry. Cubs fans have.
00:04:52
Speaker 3: No reason to be angry because it's always a good time at Wrigley.
00:04:54
Speaker 2: Well, you lost the edge. You guys had the edge. You had the curse. I agree. I agree with that point that you just said. I definitely agree with that about the Cubs fans.
00:05:04
Speaker 3: Oh, I've had this conversation.
00:05:05
Speaker 1: A lot of people I know have said they obviously love winning the World Series, but they also... felt like chicago was just another team once chicago won the world series.
00:05:17
Speaker 2: And i will say one more one more point white socks the whole pope thing it's throwing me for a loop having the it's real be like yeah it's real literally just trying to put god's put god on their side and say he's if he can he's gonna help in every way possible it's like oh my god so it's it's definitely something to keep your eye on with this white socks team we just.
00:05:36
Speaker 1: I love this pope and astros I love this Pope, and I love what he's doing for the White Sox.
00:05:42
Speaker 3: Simon, it's our Thursday NFL Week 4 show. We're a little bit late.
00:05:45
Speaker 1: We had some tech issues, so we apologize. You're going to hear sharp calls, folks, brass balls, our underdog and favorite round robins, Simon's biggest bets, our sharp versus square, our Discord grouper of the week. This is the episode where Simon and I will narrow down our final five official picks for the free $ 25, 000... NFL Pick'em Contest. You can still sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top 10 finishers get paid $ 10, 000 for first place.
00:06:15
Speaker 3: Still totally free to enter. All right. Every week, we talk about our calls on Tuesday.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: Every week, Simon gets an earful of 48 hours from his wise guy friends telling us what they like, what they don't like, what they agree with, when they think Simon is being mean to me.
00:06:31
Speaker 3: It's time for Sharp Calls.
00:06:34
Speaker 2: Who's there? I'm talking.
00:06:36
Speaker 1: Ring, ring, telephone ring.
00:06:38
Speaker 3: Somebody said, baby, what you doing?
00:06:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish it was like last week. We have some new fans this show. They're like, why don't you give out that stuff every week? Guys, last week, you have to have so many things lined up. Like that Atlanta game, I was hoping it was going to be like Cleveland this week. I was like, oh, everyone's going to love Cleveland just like me. It's not. It's totally split. Tons of pros, really smart groups on Pittsburgh. Guys like me are all over Cleveland. Last week was just truly anonymous, especially that college play. People want college stuff. I can give it out. It's just if I come on here, I want it to be a slam dunk. We don't talk college, right? Every week there's going to be options, right? I think the big one this week for the pros is Mississippi State. It's not like it was last week. Last week guys were telling me they had Florida minus seven. I think the spread was minus three, minus three and a half. If you get three and a half points of value, it doesn't get much easier for me to come on this show and be like, hey, take a position on this one. Now, Mississippi State, it's not the same thing. Virginia Tech, I know it's another really sharp play this week. It's not the same thing, though. So people want college. I'll always try to give it out if I can. Like, if there's an easy– if we're getting three points of value, I promise you I'll come on here and give it out what the pros are betting. But, yeah, this week for the pros– kind of get beat up a little bit. It seems like me and Chad are both aligned on a lot of games that are just not the professional side. So it's going to be interesting to hear what people want to do with this because I've already placed money on this stuff. The biggest one, it would definitely be that Raiders-Chiefs game. The pros all over the Chiefs. And we are all, I mean, there are pros obviously on the Raiders like us, but it is definitely one of the more heavily called phone calls I got. It was just like, dude, you're totally overrating this Raiders team. Maybe they're right. I don't know. It's going to be hard. It's going to be hard because I did already bet into the Raiders. So that one jumped out right away of a game that we both loved.
00:08:39
Speaker 3: We're not getting bullied this week, Simon. We are not getting bullied.
00:08:42
Speaker 2: We're not getting bullied, but I'm also like, okay, I'm not, this isn't a slam dunk. One of our five. Now I'm definitely going to hesitate here because I will talk more about it, but there's definitely a reason to bring it up. Another game. I might be deadly wrong on that. A lot of pros on the other side of it. that Rams-Eagles game. I thought it was going to be all pros on the Eagles. Another game we'll talk more about, but there are some really smart groups taking position on that Rams team, especially when it was two and a half. Bad miss by me. Arizona, Chad was on it. I missed it. Pros, most I've talked to, they love Arizona's matchup. They like the matchup against the Giants. The number reflects that. I think Chad said it was plus two and a half, went to one and a half, flipped now. to minus one and a half. Now it's up to minus two and a half on that Arizona team. So apologies, another bad read by me. To games that I feel like we're on the right side with a lot of these pros. Broncos, again, we're going to dive into. A lot of pros love that side. Again, we didn't spend a ton of time on, but I think we will today. Atlanta, tons of love by the pros on Atlanta against the Saints. I think that's another one that's got a huge public side, that Saints team. I just think people are believers on the flip side. It doesn't matter. Atlanta blew out Green Bay. Just no public sentiment. Like right now, most shops I talk to, it's like we desperately are going to need Atlanta come Monday night. And, you know, last one we really talked about, Houston. People probably knew that was going to be a pro side, right? It was one and a half. Got up to two and a half. Now most books are showing three. some pros are resistance at the three for this Dallas team. When we talk about the pros do love Dallas, but overall that feels like a real, really sharp side of Houston. That's an O and three team as a favorite. You won't see that too often. So yeah, a lot of interesting calls, a lot of hate in the phone calls this week, Chad.
00:10:32
Speaker 1: Well, I don't mind when we're under the gun, when it's just you and me in the Fox hole, leaning on each other, playing the numbers. I'm excited to talk about that Raiders game. Cause I'm not even thinking about it as necessarily a on the field matchup as much as I'm thinking about it as a play the number matchup.
00:10:51
Speaker 3: So we'll get to it. Pittsburgh at Cleveland. You mentioned this briefly.
00:10:55
Speaker 1: There's not going to be a lot of people that can work off the advice if they're listening to the show, but you know, we both like Cleveland and I think it's going to get to three. It's juiced to move in that, in that direction. I've kind of been waiting to play it until it gets to that three and But I did play the under 38, 38 and a half.
00:11:14
Speaker 3: And it's it's moving down. So if you want to get a 38 and a half, you better get it fast.
00:11:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, in a game, I told you I was never going to avoid it. Like this is just my regularly scheduled bet every year. We take the Browns on Thursday night. And yeah, could it catch us finally? Sure. But we've won nine straight. What more do you guys want? It's like this is the exact scenario every year. It doesn't matter the Browns. I want two in a row. The public sentiment's not convinced, right? People do not believe in it. For good reason. Sean Watson's played, you could say, two good fourth quarters, and the rest of his games have kind of been mismatch and slop. So I totally get the hesitation of my people here, but it's really just another year of the Browns being undervalued. Whoever they're playing, divisional. Usually it's Cincinnati. This year it's the Steelers. Another divisional team coming on the road that the public is overrating. Like, I just... I don't want to overthink this one where I agree. It's like, could this one bite us? Sure. But it's now moving to plus three. You have to take that number. And if, if Polly market gets us a three and a half, it's like, Oh my God, that's great value in this matchup that you expect to be a low scoring Thursday night, sloppy game. And the Browns, as much as people don't believe in them, that defense looked really good against Carolina last weekend. Yes. And you know, I know we try not to overreact to this stuff because it's such a small sample through a couple weeks. But other than that Jaguars game, I mean, they look good against the Bucs too. And we said that's a lot on Baker. It was, but they still made the plays. It hasn't been noticeable the difference without Miles Garrett. To me, that's the biggest thing I've looked for in this Browns team where it's like you thought they would have no pass rush. They would get little pressure. They've been pretty good at getting after the quarterbacks. We are through three weeks, so. Aaron Rodgers coming off his best game in two, three years. I mean, he looked incredible. I get why the public is hammering them and believe in the Steelers team, but I'll just take the points here with the Browns and just hope this trend continues on the Browns success on Thursday night.
00:13:15
Speaker 3: Same and the under, under 38 and a half. All right.
00:13:20
Speaker 1: The Rams at Philly, the lines at three, it's trading at three and a half on the prediction markets. So clearly there has been money moving this in the, Ram's direction. This was Simon Says. I'm curious to hear about the professional sides that you've been talking to because we both like this on Tuesday because of the spot for the Eagles. You want to be an underdog coming off of a bad game and you want to bet on that team. That's an against the spread winner. You want to fade the public. That's an historic winner. So to me, I'm surprised to hear people coming in hard on the Rams when it seems like the perceived value should be on the Eagles, just playing the number in the spot.
00:14:14
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I think it's very telling that, um, I thought this was going to be a slam dunk professional side this week where the Eagles Jalen hurts. He's six and six and oh, his last six as a dog. Like he just, he's a covering machine. The rare chance you get as a dog now at home, I mean, we've talked about his home record. He's like 13-0 straight up at home. He just hurts his not lose at home. And I gave this tattoo. He's never lost to McVeigh. He's 4-0 against McVeigh, 3-0 against him in Stafford. So all this stuff points to it. I think the Zach Vaughn injury, he's got a concussion. He's in concussion protocol. To most pros I talk to, that's the biggest one because he's the difference maker in this matchup where you're going to need him to play and cover these tight ends. I mean, we've seen what The Rams want to run through their offense, right? They want to have two tight ends, sometimes three on the field. John Campbell, I mean, these stats are glaring. We give tons of love to Howie. Right now, Howie has a big miss where he let N'Kobi Dean walk, which I've talked about. He's gone to the Raiders, and he looks like a top three, top four linebacker right now in football. Tackling, all of it, making just incredible plays right now for the Raiders. The flip side, John Campbell looks lost. And when you dive into his numbers this season, he's basically allowed 140 passer rating, which is probably one of the worst at all the linebackers. 10 of 12 completions, 128 yards and a touchdown is what he's given up right now in coverage. That's not sustainable. That's literally a guy that should be benched, but they really can't because they have so much equity drafted into them. Right. The first round pick. trotter might play in this game which i think is a big deal for bond like i think this guy is a really good linebacker he probably should be playing over jod so maybe it's not that big of a deal but you're asking campbell now to be in coverage once again against these tight ends who just look great for the range so that's probably the biggest thing that's brought up to me about this matchup where it's like i think you're really overlooking the fact that campbell now is going to green dot he's going to be calling all the plays that bonds out and you know say what you want about zack one he won player defensive player of the week i think two weeks ago like this is you could say the the best player on the sequels defense that's struggling right now so it's tough right like this felt like a slam dunk especially polymark like i gave it out it's three and a half like i couldn't believe you were getting that number in this matchup where yeah the ramps could win but it won't be my winning a field goal so i'll still stay dug in but anyone out there i get it if you've already taken position on ramps two and a half if your contest is two and a half on ramps I'm not– I would have gave you a really hard time about betting it. Now I won't just because if Zach Vaughn is out and I can't reinstate how big of a deal that is, the Rams, yeah, with Puka back, this could be a long day for an Eagles team. I've given out the numbers defensively. They're one of the worst teams right now in football. So I get it. I wish I came here and just slammed the table because it's such a great spot for the Eagles. But if the injuries are hitting the Eagles like they are right now, it actually could turn into a nightmare defensively for them.
00:17:24
Speaker 3: I am so shocked by this development.
00:17:28
Speaker 1: The bone injury, maybe that's what's moving the needle here, but this to me just feels like, come on, the Eagles are the spot. Sometimes you're playing the spot. We're going to talk about this with the Chiefs and the Raiders too. Sometimes you are playing the spot and this needs to be a get right, get healthy spot for the Eagles. Sure, the Rams need to be there too, but I'm not saying the Rams need to, the Eagles need to win this game, but if you're getting three points for a team of this caliber that we think.
00:17:57
Speaker 3: Could go to the Super Bowl and they're at home, I don't know, man. I don't know.
00:18:05
Speaker 2: I agree. If it's three and a half Sunday morning, Chad, we're going to have a really, I don't know how we pass on that number.
00:18:12
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to have a hard time. I think we're going to want to put it in at three and a half. I hope we have that opportunity. Green Bay at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a three and a half point underdog at home. This has moved down from four on Tuesday. What's surprising to me is the massive amount of tickets coming in on the Bucks.
00:18:36
Speaker 3: Well north, it was at, let me just see what it says here.
00:18:39
Speaker 1: I think it's about 50, 50%. So it was at 52% yesterday. So a little bit of movement back to make it even. do we think it's the public getting smarter? Is it the public just hating the Packers before we came on the show, Matt Mitchell and I were talking about the sentiment in Wisconsin right now with the brewers about to take on the Padres. And he's like, everyone is out on the Packers earlier than I've ever seen in the state of Wisconsin.
00:19:10
Speaker 3: Matt lives in Milwaukee. I like, I wanted to bet the bucks at four.
00:19:16
Speaker 1: Um, I love Jalen Daniels, the quarterback from Kansas, undrafted. He wants to be the thermostat, Simon, not the thermometer. Matt Mitchell, play the clip.
00:19:29
Speaker 4: One thing I learned in college was, you know, you can't be a thermometer. You have to be the thermostat. You have to be someone who comes in and is able to set the temperature of the room, not test the room and try to be able to blend in with it. So if the team is low, I have to be able to pick it up to be able to make sure that they're even. And if we're high, then I have to be able to be low to be able to make sure that we even. I try to be even kill as possible, and the team around you feels that.
00:19:51
Speaker 3: Love his confidence. Love his attitude. Love this guy.
00:19:55
Speaker 2: I know I'm the slowest talk in the world, but would people rather me talk like him? He is the fastest talker I've heard in a while.
00:20:01
Speaker 3: My God, he is going to be fast to get those calls out.
00:20:04
Speaker 2: No, he's excited, man. He is excited. Uh, Yeah, like we joked, the W you know, the W you don't know. Some people just, they like the scenario. I mean, the trend we've talked about, these 0-3 trends, these teams that are 0-3, playing a team with at least one win, everyone sees it, 65%. Like, it's just, if you blindly bet the Bucs here, you know, there's a couple teams that fit that bill this week. That's, for the general public, that's what they're looking at, right? They're seeing these trends people are putting out there. It's an easy bet. You're getting plus three and a half against what we talked about, a Packers team that, you know, As much as their fans were in denial in the summer, right? When I came on your side, they might have one of the worst offensive lines, a bad defense. You couldn't be in denial, right? That was before your best offensive tackle got hurt, right? There's things to latch on to. You'd be like, well, we have great safeties if you're believing your defense. And Van Ness is going to take that next step, which is true. Van Ness has looked better. But you just see their defense overall, especially against Atlanta, they just can never stop the run. If you can't stop the run, eventually you're never going to be able to stop the pass, right? And the guys are just going to get heavy legs. green bay defense i can see how the bucks can move it on them right and he's talking they have a mobile quarterback now in the bucks like they're going to scheme up some type of plays and we've talked about like this baker's had guys open he's missed throws and even baker would admit that he's missed throws that he usually should make and you know they still have great weapons on the outside like gowan emeka buka like these are still great weapons bucky irvin's been really good this year too so i can see what the public's betting here honestly but um Yeah, another game maybe we're just missing. I'm still tempted to take Green Bay where it's just as bad as it's looked, I still have much more faith in their offense moving the ball and scoring points on this Bucs defense than I do an undrafted first-time starter quarterback. It's just either can go either way. This Bucs team could come out and this guy could be incredible, hair on fire. They can't catch him. He's just super fast, super athletic. We have no idea. I try to go back and watch his tape from this summer. I mean, he looked good, but it's like, he's praying against guys that aren't on anyone's rosters. It's just so hard to grasp these backup quarterbacks. So I'm happy if we avoid it. Like I gave out that stat, like someone's got to cover this one, but man, these two teams have just been absolutely awful. And just either side you bet, I think you're going to be disappointed.
00:22:24
Speaker 1: The teams that you mentioned in the spot where we will be betting some of them, the Owen three teams, the Bucs, the Texans, the Chargers, Miami.
00:22:41
Speaker 3: I'm personally going to play the Bucs.
00:22:45
Speaker 1: We can leave it out of the contest for sure, but this just feels like too much fun. I'm not going to play it for a whole unit even, but I do want a rooting interest on this game.
00:22:57
Speaker 3: I want to root for this kid. I like this spot.
00:23:01
Speaker 1: I'm as out on the Packers as the rest of Wisconsin until their offensive line improves. They're signing guys off the street. It's just everything is going wrong for them right now. I'm okay betting on a team in a spot like this, which is what the Bucs are in as a winless team at home as a dog.
00:23:20
Speaker 3: So I have no fear, Simon, no fear. It is time for.
00:23:27
Speaker 1: Our Brass Balls Trade of the Week, presented by Polymarket. It is the Denver Broncos trading at 2.5, currently at 48% on Polymarket, visiting the San Francisco 49ers. You know what it takes?
00:23:47
Speaker 2: It takes brass balls.
00:23:52
Speaker 1: We've got what they call in the business a reverse line move. which is indicated by the majority of tickets coming in on one side, but the money is moving the line in the other direction. So as you noted in sharp calls, the pros are on Denver. The game was three San Francisco minus three majority of ticks are on tickets are on San Francisco.
00:24:16
Speaker 3: The line has moved to two and a half.
00:24:21
Speaker 2: Yeah. I was really hoping this would go the other way. I was like, Oh man, I like the public, the pros, they might line up here on, this 49ers team who has looked great obviously through three weeks and we'll get to three and a half, but fortunately the pros did come in since we did our last show. And I, I mean, it makes sense, right? Probably market giving us three and a half. That would have been a real gift, but then being back down to two and a half just makes sense. It's just, it's going to be all professional money on this Broncos side, in my opinion, like the 49ers could be great. This is a great prove a game, but you're going to have no pass rush against a mobile quarterback. Like there's just, The injuries, as great as Fred Warner is, he only could cover up so much. You can't lose a guy like Nick Bosa and other pieces you had on the front line and just expect to keep winning games. You saw Bursette that second half. He was able to pass as much as he won Arizona against that 49ers team. It feels a little bit the same. We know the deal. This Broncos team seems to come out slow. I've told people, if you want to take a position on the 49ers, maybe do it first half if you want to, but I could just see the Broncos dominating this game wire to wire. Purdy Can he step up and keep playing MVP level? That's what you're going to need. And this is going to be by far the best defense he's played all year. So really interesting matchup-wise. And I talked a little bit about it. I just think the Broncos, we've seen it through three weeks, feel like a truly battle-tested team right now where the 49ers, I feel like they've gotten a nice break schedule-wise and just feel a little inflated. Like they're a good team this year, no doubt. 49ers are a good team. If they were healthy, they'd be a great team. And I feel like right now they're not healthy. So they're just a good team. They're facing absolute juggernaut here in the Broncos.
00:25:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't know. Obviously, Nick Bosa's out.
00:25:57
Speaker 1: Mike Evans, Trent Williams got dinged up. Expectations are that they'll play, but they still were coming off of a stinger for Trent Williams and an undisclosed rib injury for Mike Evans. This is entirely about a prove-it offensive game for Brock Purdy, right? He is going against the best defense that he will have faced this year. A great opportunity for the Broncos to build momentum off of that game against the Rams. Maybe they unlock something in the play calling against the Rams, especially without Nick Bosa playing. And there's other defensive line injuries. It sucks that we're not getting the three. We're not going to get the three in the contest. I don't see this going back down or going back up. But yeah, I think the Broncos are the side. Broncos are probably going to be in our money line parlay, underdog money line parlay too.
00:26:49
Speaker 3: So that is our brass balls.
00:26:52
Speaker 1: Trade of the week, the Denver Broncos trading at Polymarket plus two and a half, 48%. I need to tell you all about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. And Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweatpicks together every Sunday. in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Jacksonville, plus two and a half at Cincinnati. Simon, just based on the past week, the Jags dominating the Pats, the Bengals losing to the Steelers. This to me was another fade the public game because The flukiness in these games is never reflected in the market's point of view or in sort of the standard box scores, which is why nearly 60% of the tickets are on the Jags. And this line basically hasn't budged from two and a half. It's kind of being suppressed a little bit by the money coming in on the Bengals. I think it will get to three. It's still two and a half. I still like Cincinnati. Minus two and a half.
00:28:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, another game I was shocked, though. I thought more pros would be all over the Bengals with us, and it's another game that's very split. Not so much split where it's like, dude, you're making a huge mistake like people are saying we are with the Raiders, but a split nonetheless where it's like you're getting Joe under a field goal at home after a loss, like I said, that he puts on himself. And we talk all the time. Joe, I didn't have him at my top. I think I had him at number six, but we both view him as a top five, top six type of quarterback.
00:29:15
Speaker 3: I think I had him just behind Drake May.
00:29:18
Speaker 2: He's a really good quarterback so it's like you just have to believe him to bounce back and it's like you know as much props that we're giving to the jaguars like we've talked about it's it's a very small sample we've seen them be dominant at home and struggle on the road like that that broncos game going back and watching it i did say it was a brian Thomas game where he had some horrible drops and you even saw this past week, like Trevor Lawrence didn't go to him anywhere near as much. He had the week before where it's like, even he was saying, if I'm going down, it's gonna be a park of Washington. Like, I don't care if it's third down now, I'm just looking for my number one. I'm not messing around with these, these guys who just have the yips. It looks like. So yeah, Yeah, this one jumped out to me right away of like, okay, it's under three. The fact that the public and professional money is on the Jaguars, like Chad said, it's not a bunch. If we came in today and it was plus one and a half, it's like, okay, maybe me and Chad are walking into it here. Maybe the Jags are the right side, but I think professional money will come and this will get back up to minus three by Sunday. It just feels like this is going to be the right side. The Brewers will come on and I just expect a big bounce back, not just from the Bengals' defense, but from Joe Burrow. This just feels like the exact type of game where Joe bounces back and wins these type of scenarios. We've seen his stats play out where he does always struggle the first two weeks where I know they went 2-0, but if you looked at underlying stats, Joe wasn't really playing to Joe's level. You saw a little bit of that last week. He had a couple balls that were 50-50 balls that did go his way, but overall, you just saw him be more confident and look more comfortable in that offense, so I expect another week here against a Jaguars team that, yes, defensively they look good. We've talked about it. There's ways to attack this defense. They're not some type of incredible juggernaut. So just looking at matchup scheme-wise, I think we're getting a free half a point here on this Bengals team. We have to take advantage of it. You're getting Joe under a field goal here. I can't say that enough. These are the exact type of games Joe usually wins.
00:31:17
Speaker 1: We are so far very aligned on a– On a couple of games, Denver and Cincinnati for sure. I feel like you're waffling a little bit on the Eagles, but I'm still confident in the Eagles. The next game to discuss, the Houston Texans hosting the Dallas Cowboys. This line has moved up to three. This was Chad's choice when the Texans were at two and a half. It opened at one and a half, moved to two and a half. In the last 24 hours, it's gotten to three. On the prediction markets, it's trading at three and a half. So that tells you that that's where the money is consistently coming in. The Cowboys have since traded for Joey Porter. No idea if that's going to have an impact. I don't even know if he's going to play this weekend, but this is one of those spots. We got a home team, winless. They're playing a team that's already won. But I think we're starting to see this Texans defense get better and better. And this Cowboys defense, I don't know who's going to be playing in the secondary, even if Joey Porter can play, because they were just dropping like flies against the Ravens. So we got to believe in D'Amico Ryans. We got to believe in the Texans covering at a short number at home.
00:32:42
Speaker 2: I can't imagine being a Cowboys fan now because you're just– It's the same way– not that I feel bad about this country, but like having someone in power that's above the age of 80, it's terrifying. Like this man is just burning down their future for what? Like what is he all in on right now with this Cowboys team? Like sure, are they good because they won this division? Yeah, but do you really– like I just can't imagine his mind really thinking they're going to beat Seattle the Rams in the playoffs. It's just– It's crazy at this point. Pickens is a free agent after this year. The guy that just traded for Porter is a free agent after this year. Are they going to pay all these guys that they just traded all this draft capital for? It's bizarre what Jerry Jones is doing right now. But you can't hate the move if you're a Cowboys fan. Your whole secondary is banged up. So, yeah, bring this guy in. But, I mean, how many times have we seen someone sit out the first three, four weeks, come in and have a hamstring injury? Like, it's just... It feels like it never works out for guys who hold out, sit out, and then come out and play. This guy's had no physical contact. Who knows if he's even tackled to the ground in a year? Since their last game of last season, who knows what he's done in camp with Pittsburgh because he was trying to get paid. He was not going to risk getting hurt and not getting paid. Now he's on a new team, still not paid. They didn't give him a new contract, which I'd be terrified if I was a Cowboys fan. You just have an owner that just feels like, They're going a little senile doing some crazy stuff because they want to win right now, which has that ever worked out from anybody? I mean, go ask the Colts about trading for a sauce garter. It just doesn't– this league, it does not work that way. It really, really does not work that way. It's so rare. So, yeah, I'm happy to see it going up, Jack, because this is another game where it just felt– we talked Sunday night. It felt too easy. It really did. It's like we're getting an 0-3 team at home. total back against the wall against a team coming back from international game, an embarrassing loss. Like, yeah, can this, can Dak lead these guys that bounce back? Like that would give me a ton of respect to them and them going forward this season, the Cowboys, because this is like the worst spike could possibly be. Just couldn't, couldn't have been worse vibes. Maybe they have, you know, great practice this week, but how do you have any confidence in your head coach right now? Like even Shiner openly admitted he blew that game under the game. It just feels so bad. Such a turning point type of game for Cowboys. Flipside Texans, this is to save your season. And you have a coach here that, how can you not see he's playing for his job right now? Like you've had back-to-back years starting 0-3. He turned around last year and went to the playoffs, won a playoff game. So, you know, going back off his history, he tends to get his guys right and bounce back in these games. And just matchup-wise, We're really hoping Nico is back because, like we talked about, Cowboys secondary is in shambles right now. And their best player might be a guy who hasn't played in nine months. So, yeah, we really hope Nico's back. That's another reason this number could be going up. Maybe people already got the word Nico is going to be back. So that's why it's moving up the way it is. So, yeah, grab the three and a half if you still can. There's still a couple of shops you might be able to find three and a half. But I think by the time everyone hears this, it's all going to be threes across the board. So hopefully people grab it when you gave it out, Chad, on Tuesday.
00:35:58
Speaker 1: Uh, Ben Solak, our buddy, Ben Solak from ESPN, who's been on the show, had a tweet the other, I think after the Joey Porter trade, that the Cowboys wouldn't pay Micah Parsons, I think something like 45, 50 million a year. And they have since rated four players that they are going to have to pay if they decide to pay Joey Porter between their defensive line and their backfield, that they're going to have to pay a combined 60 plus million to. none of whom have the impact that Micah Parsons has. That's number one. Number two, we talked about the spot for the Texans and the spot for some of these winless teams. Here's a great one from our buddy Evan Abrams over at Action. Winless teams that have performed well against the spread, so they haven't been blown out. Like the Texans, 57% against the spread in the past 20 years. That's a sample size. of more than 400 games. Another indication, this is a pro-Joe game. About a third of the tickets are on Houston, which is shocking to me. But the line has moved in the direction of the Texans. And like I said, on the prediction markets, buying the Texans is much more expensive, about 54%. So yeah, we'll be on the Texans. Arizona at the New York Giants. It's not a contest play.
00:37:27
Speaker 3: You mentioned it.
00:37:27
Speaker 1: I put it in the script before I knew about sharp calls. The Cardinals were one and a half point underdogs. They are now two and a half point favorites, a huge swing. What were you hearing from the wise guys about this game generally? And does anybody think there's a value in betting on the Cardinals as short road favorites at this point?
00:37:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, like I said, bad miss by me. I wish I was on this Cardinals one. Right away, I immediately was like, this is going to be a nice giant spot. They just played in a tsunami. Didn't score a touchdown. I think they scored 12 points against Tennessee. No one's going to be backing them. Everyone's going to be leaving this team for dead. I mean, James Winston, through two games, has done nothing to give anyone any type of confidence. And, I mean, even his own team is bringing in J.J. McCarthy as, you know, could he be their savior this season? I don't know. That feels like another– future play hedge. I know I've seen crazier things. I will never doubt ever again after Sam Darnold won a Superbowl. Like you couldn't, you would have told me that five years ago, I would, I would have been like, not possible.
00:38:31
Speaker 3: Totally fair. Totally fair.
00:38:33
Speaker 2: He earned it. So JJ, we just, we both believe so much at KOC. If KOC is giving you away for a fifth round pick, something's gotta be wrong. Something's gotta be wrong there. So I get people's hesitation here. It just feels like a stand I need to make, especially it's a two and a half now in the Giants. It's just can't they run the ball down their throats with Cam Scadaboo and just pass the ball downfield against a suspect Cardinals defense? It's like this team is not that good. It just really is. Is Brissette going to have his A game? Like if Brissette shows up and he can put up 24, 30 points, yeah, Cardinals easily cover win this game. But I just think the public is too low on this Giants team. So I'm just– I was just interested to see that every pro I talked to is just like, oh, Cardinals– No problem. Take that number. You're getting under three. Take that number. They're going to be able to move the ball against this Giants team. I don't know. Are we not overrating a little bit this Cardinals team? Just a little bit. so i'm excited to see this one play out because if the cardinals do win this game yeah i'm gonna definitely move them up in my grading right now because this this offense could be really legit maybe i am underrating them because you know they've looked great week one look great last week and i guess you could say junk time but they still made the play so yeah really interesting game the back and forth between pros and uh the public here.
00:39:45
Speaker 1: Corner tv potential but we'll both be watching the game uh Real quickly, Miami, I don't even want to talk about it. I just want to say the Bucs are in that spot. They're 10 and a half point dogs as a winless team. The Vikings are one of the worst offenses in NFL history, literally for an undefeated team. I think they're averaging like 137 passing yards per game. And again, shout out to Evan teams that average 150 yards passing or less in the fourth game of the season. or later, are 40% against the spread. And they're the first team to start 3-0 and average fewer than 250 yards on offense since Jim Brown, as a rookie, led the Cleveland Browns in 1957. So look, probably not going to be in the contest. I would imagine both of us are going to have a little bit of a play on Miami. I just want to make that case. I want people to be aware of that. We're not abandoning our principles just because we think the Dolphins are really terrible.
00:40:54
Speaker 2: No, I hate it. The Dolphins are probably going to end up being another week with them being one of my bigger bets. I just keep betting it. And it's not only because I like the matchup because I've talked to this Vikings team. They're just living on coaching right now. They just have such good coaching. That's the only hesitation here because it is Flores playing against a team he is currently suing. So you don't think his defense is going to go to war for their coach? I know people have asked me about that. It's like, you're not wrong. Somebody who plays sports, any extra motivation you can get. And that's a big extra motivation. This team disrespected this man, tried to smear his name through the mud. So that gives me pause. But the biggest one that jumped out to me is, it might have been the Vizin guys, or maybe it was Action guys. I don't know where I saw this trend. It was on Twitter, but Basically, the Vikings, who scored more than 20 points last week and did nothing offensive. I think they had less than 10 first downs and are now double-digit favorites. In this exact spot, they're 2-22 against the spread, the Vikings. So just blindly, you're getting a 90% play on the Dolphins. And I know it's sickening, but it's just a rare opportunity. It doesn't happen that often. Yeah. I'm not shocked to see every teaser, all the money, everything pouring on the Vikings. I expect come Sunday this will be a pretty split between the public. I think the public will bet the Dolphins just because people are going to hear those trends and just look at this Vikings team. It's like they've done nothing through three weeks, and they're 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread. It's been great for me. I've been backing this team, and I'm loving it. That's what's probably so hard for me right now where it's like, I get it. I get why we're supposed to bet the Dolphins here. But the Vikings winning 20-0 is on the table. Like, Flores not letting the Dolphins cross the 50 is on the table. This man, I have to look it up again, but he might be at like a 70% blitz percentage this season. Just a total psychopath. I love it. Like, the Vikings defense is so much fun to watch. So, really, really interesting what we talk about come Sunday morning. Because as we say right now, it's like, I feel like we have to play the Dolphins. And I'm trying everything in my body to have us avoid it because last week was so painful. But like Chad said, we know what we're supposed to do here. You're supposed to play the Dolphins and not think about it. So really a tough one to handicap.
00:43:21
Speaker 3: Kansas City at Las Vegas.
00:43:22
Speaker 1: The Raiders are four and a half point underdogs. Look, you and I both loved it on Tuesday. You were wondering at the time why more love hadn't come in from the professionals on the Raiders.
00:43:35
Speaker 3: The spot is the spot.
00:43:37
Speaker 1: You know, whether it's Mahomes as a favorite of more than three or home dogs in the division or two undefeated teams and betting the home dog, the Raiders are the side. In every scenario, the Raiders are the side. The trepidation now is concerning. So lay it on us. Let's talk this through. Let's see where we land. Let's have a deep and meaningful discussion.
00:44:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, the question is– Are we wrong? Yeah, it's just are we totally overrating this Raiders team? And that's my hardest part is, like, going back and watching all their games. It's like, Kirk looks so good. He's playing so comfortable in this offense. Like, the fact that he was doing what he was doing before Bowers came back and then you saw last week with Bowers.
00:44:27
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:44:28
Speaker 2: Kubiak is in his bag right now. He literally– you can say he spent six months– building this offense around Bowers. Like it felt like that in that game where he's moving them all over the field, lining them up all different, different places going. I mean, they're, we talk about the two tight end sets. This is a team that they're paying their backup tight end, like $ 50 million for the next three or four years or something crazy like that. So it's a team that's perfectly built for the way the NFL is gone now. And Gentry has looked incredible too. So yeah, it's really interesting. I really can't get over the fact that the pros love the chief so much. And there's something we're missing here because, from what I've seen from this Chiefs defense is you can move the ball. They're just another bend and don't break type of spags defense where, yeah, they're not going to let you score touchdowns. And maybe that's what happens here in this game where Mahomes gets the, gets the touchdowns and we get stuck with the field goals on the Raiders side. But I just, I'm scary check is this number has not budged despite a lot of pros and a lot of hammering this Raiders side. So if we come here Sunday morning, Chad's on his soapbox and saying, I don't care. I'm taking the Chiefs. I might just have to laugh and be like, all right, we'll go Chiefs. But I don't know if we'll ever end up on the Raiders come Sunday morning because there's just so many things that are scaring me off this line. So maybe you'll stay. You'll stay hard. You'll like the Raiders. And I could get pushed into it come Sunday morning. But right now, as we stand here, it's like I feel like we should be taking the Chiefs. We're missing something here where it's like the numbers try to tell us what to do here. And we're trying to think we're smarter than numbers, smarter than books. And usually that's when you get caught.
00:46:04
Speaker 1: I am shocked by your response to the feedback from your professional betting brethren. It must be, you know, you've mentioned it on the show a couple of times.
00:46:19
Speaker 3: There's this one.
00:46:20
Speaker 1: Group that you really respect that is dialed in on the Chiefs. are they having an outsized influence on our conversation right now?
00:46:31
Speaker 2: They're in on the chiefs. They lost with us on Miami last week. So it's like, I wish I could say that you guys are locked, locked in, but no, they're two on one on chief games. But yeah, they're, they're on the chiefs this week. They're, you're definitely not wrong about that. They're, they're one of the guys that are holding this number up and it's really respected money clearly. Cause we said, it's like, you talk, there's different, you know, polyamory market, different shops. It's like, yeah, 80%, 70% of the money right now is on this Raiders team. So, Yeah, I'm really interested where this number goes this week because it's– I would feel much better about the Raiders if we come in Sunday morning as three and a half. Then I'm like, okay, let's dance with the devil and go against Moms here. But if it's still sitting here at four and a half, it's going to be pretty terrifying.
00:47:10
Speaker 1: All right, we'll put– we don't need to be– it's not about bravado.
00:47:16
Speaker 3: It's about being right.
00:47:18
Speaker 1: And I'd rather be thoughtful and cautious on Thursday– and not try to plant a flag before we need to plant a flag. Let's get as much information as we can. Let's be as confident as possible. We still got 48 hours. We loved them on Tuesday. We're bed into the Raiders. Nothing we can do about that. Like I'm not buying out of the Raiders, but it doesn't have to be in the final five.
00:47:40
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll just put the bucks in instead. Maybe that's, maybe that's what we'll do.
00:47:45
Speaker 2: I want a rapid fire. We are going to get to it. Yeah. I want to talk to this game.
00:47:50
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah.
00:47:51
Speaker 1: Carolina plus three and a half, Sunday Night Football. You know, the worry was whether or not Bryce Young would play. I believe he is going to play.
00:47:58
Speaker 3: He's expected to.
00:48:00
Speaker 1: The Panthers defensive backfield, J.C. Horn, cornerback, Mike Jackson, cornerback, both on IR right now. To be honest, we could try to dissect that part of the game. That's not really the worry. Like, whether they're in or out, the Panthers are going to have to score on practically every possession. We're betting on Bryce Young to beat up the Lions defensively. beleaguered defense, but we also know the Lions are going to move the ball. We know it's an outdoor game that doesn't bode as well for Jared Goff historically. I still feel pretty good. We want to be on Carolina here. I'm betting into Carolina at the three and a half.
00:48:39
Speaker 2: I am too, but it's brutal. Like you, you want your two starting corners, especially in this matchup against this, this Depot receiving core. So yeah, another number that's just bizarre to me. Those, that injury news all came out. Which I just said, the number didn't budge at all. So, yeah, come Sunday night, the books are going to desperately need the Panthers. I mean, who's not betting from the public betting this Lions team?
00:49:01
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:49:03
Speaker 2: We know the deal. This is a team that could easily steamroll this Panthers team, right? Put up a ton of points. So, be careful, people, on the total here. I think the total is 51.5. I would say that kind of is like the type of spot where you want to take the under. It's two two offense that people are really hyped on and they don't believe their defenses usually this is exact time both offenses fall on their face but um i was shocked to see the high of a total uh with everything that's going on with bryce young and this offense like it feels like panthers if there's ever a game they're gonna run the ball more this would be it like the lions just they're not great against the run either so Yeah, I want to touch on this one because people asked about it. I'm still with Chad. I'm still on it with the Panthers. It's just not ideal now losing your number one, number two cornerbacks against an offense that we talked about. It's just anytime they need a third down, obviously there's no one that can stop on Monse Brown, right? But you can mitigate it in some ways. And now they're just going to basically have to play zone this whole game. You're never going to be able to run man with backup corners against this offense. So you're going to be running a ton of zone with a bunch of blitzes against Goff. Can it work here? I mean, it has to, right? We've seen Jared Goff's numbers. He's horrible, especially this season. He's been horrible when he gets pressured. So that's what it's going to be. It's really going to be a ton of zone with a ton of blitz and Carolina's going to live and die. And then the flip side lines team, can they take away Bryce Young's options downfield? Like Coker, if he's healthy in this game, to be determined, we need him to be healthy though. Like this is one of these Sunday morning, we're fighting about putting this one in. I still don't know if Coker's going to play or not. I wouldn't force this one. He's been that great for them. And, You saw it last week with the Browns. They only scored one touchdown. You can't say it didn't matter not having them in that game. They suffered four field goals in that game. So, yeah, another injury to keep your eye on.
00:50:47
Speaker 1: That, to me, is the much more important injury than the defensive backs because they're going to need to score nonstop no matter what. Totally agree with you. Interesting game. It's another one we're going to have to put a pin in. I will say 35% of the tickets on Carolina– as the home dog right now. If you haven't bet Carolina and you're still curious, you can probably hold off. This line is juiced to move like it's going to go to four. By Sunday, you might be getting four and a half at prediction markets if everyone else has moved to four.
00:51:20
Speaker 3: So something to keep an eye on. You don't have to rush on this one. Simon, it is time.
00:51:27
Speaker 1: For our Discord grouper of the week. I know how much you love the Discord. Pre-order the number. At readthenumber.com, get an invite. We're raising money for St. Jude's when you pre-order the book. Speaking of my book, The Number, Matt Mitchell received a video clip this week from longtime listener John Goulet, which Matt would like to play for us right now. I don't know what this is, so I'm excited to hear it.
00:51:57
Speaker 2: Buy my book! Buy my book! Buy my book!
00:52:05
Speaker 3: It's funny.
00:52:06
Speaker 1: You know what's funny? Simon, the other day, you came after my artistry. And what I loved is in the YouTube comments, the YouTube comments are amazing, but there ended up being a very long thread in which I weighed in on about art and commerce and who is a true artist. It was about Leonardo da Vinci, Renoir.
00:52:34
Speaker 3: Rembrandt.
00:52:36
Speaker 1: I just thought it was hilarious that in the middle of a betting show comment section, there were comments about, can you be an artist if you are actually doing it in the pursuit of money? And my point to that is yes, because you want to continue to create art. And part of that is commerce, which is why I pitched the book because I worked hard on it and I'd like people to buy it. And so I can do it again. And don't forget, if you buy 10 of them, I'm doing a book club with.
00:53:09
Speaker 3: You, whether it's Zoom or in person.
00:53:12
Speaker 1: I've already had a couple of those people email sharp or square at thevolume.com with their proof of purchase so I can do it. So thanks for sparking a good discussion, Simon.
00:53:23
Speaker 3: I know you want to weigh in.
00:53:24
Speaker 2: The only reason I said that was just because you were literally breaking down to us why you're, you're selling your book. Is it for, we're all idiots. It's like, Chad, we know, we know why you're selling your books, buddy. You don't have to break it down to us while you're trying to make money selling a book. You love writing books. But yeah, that, that's just a, I say like, there's a bunch of art, artistic signs. That's one of my favorite ones. I mean, the biggest one truly is how can you be an artist in life if you're not suffering, which I do agree with. Like it's someone that does what I think is a form of art sports betting and it is better when we suffer, right? If we're always happy and it's all good, we're always winning. You're not low. You're not learning. You're not growing, right? You're not getting better at your craft. So I do think that is part of it. And yeah, like anyone out there, that's a suffering artist. I always tell people, if you believe in it, like Chad said, it's a, it is technically a hobby. It's not your job yet. Stick to it, man. Everyone that's in the position of success all started out where you were at, man. They just, no one's going to believe in you have to believe in yourself. So, Chad wants to make a living doing what he loves. I'm going to make fun of him about it, but that's literally the dream in life. People, go after your dreams, man. It's your life. You're in total control.
00:54:40
Speaker 1: Couldn't be said better. My older son just graduated from Drexel. He wants to get into the video game business and wants to write the stories, the narratives for adventure games, tabletop games like Dungeons and Dragons, things like that.
00:54:58
Speaker 3: I keep telling them, dude, it's a creative field.
00:55:00
Speaker 1: It might take you 15 years. You might be working part-time at your rock climbing gym for a very long time. And I have friends in the movie business who took that long and then they made shows that have become some of the most popular shows, I'm not even exaggerating, in history. And now they're wildly successful. You just don't know. There's no path for when you want to be in a creative field.
00:55:26
Speaker 3: Uh, Simon's right. You do have to suffer.
00:55:28
Speaker 1: It's nice if you can put food on the table and you suffer for the art, not because you're hungry.
00:55:34
Speaker 3: Uh, but I appreciate all the support.
00:55:36
Speaker 1: Uh, this week, the winner for the discord groupers and outline parlay of Buffalo minus one and a half in Seattle, minus one and a half. Both games against teams in the Patriots and chargers in serious turmoil right now. We got that at minus one 25 Simon. What should we do for our underdog round robin parlay?
00:56:02
Speaker 2: My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.
00:56:08
Speaker 3: Feels like we want to put the Broncos in there.
00:56:10
Speaker 2: Oh, definitely. And we didn't talk about Atlanta as another one of my bigger bets this week. I really love Atlanta's plus two and a half. So that would definitely have to get in our round robin. I just think the public is still too low on Pennix.
00:56:21
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:56:22
Speaker 2: I just needed to see he was able to move in the pocket. I know he's not going to run, run the ball, right. He's coming back from some major knee injury, but I was so happy to see his movement inside the pocket. So that's another dog I really like. So yeah, then Broncos, I know I didn't give him the most warming love to him, but the Eagles plus one 40. Yeah.
00:56:40
Speaker 3: I got the Eagles in there.
00:56:41
Speaker 2: Sure. Dogs are really good to us last week. That's, that's my only hesitation. We banked so heavily. I think we went four and one last week on our, we did. Yeah. So it's, We're going back to the well on that one for sure. Can we throw the international game in there just because it's plus 160 in an international dog? I know the international dogs aren't great, though, so now that I think about it, maybe we should avoid them.
00:57:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't love that one, but... Okay. What about Tampa?
00:57:09
Speaker 2: That's all you. I know you love Tampa. Why not? Sure.
00:57:12
Speaker 3: It just feels like... I wouldn't do it, but.
00:57:15
Speaker 2: They fit the 0-3 against a 1-2. Yes. So, like, they do fit that trend, that bill. So I won't fight you on that.
00:57:23
Speaker 1: Should we be doing, you know, someone who's a bit longer that isn't Miami, a plus 10 and a half.
00:57:29
Speaker 2: Yeah. Like our longest, our longest one is the one I just, I know I'm gonna get a ton of shit for by the pros, but I mean the Raiders, I would do it. Yeah.
00:57:38
Speaker 3: I only didn't mention it.
00:57:39
Speaker 2: It's plus one 80.
00:57:40
Speaker 3: All right. So do the Raiders. So our underdog round Robin.
00:57:45
Speaker 2: Rate, can you imagine we're sitting here on Tuesday? Raiders are four now.
00:57:49
Speaker 3: I know.
00:57:51
Speaker 1: Denver, Atlanta, Philly, Tampa, Las Vegas. Those are the underdog round robin parlay. Our favorites round robin, we tend to only do three of those.
00:58:06
Speaker 3: You know, Cincy.
00:58:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cincy is definitely one.
00:58:09
Speaker 3: Houston. Houston. I like doing them a little bit shorter so we can get a better price.
00:58:15
Speaker 2: How do we not? throw the bears and I know it's a letdown spot, but it's like, that's interesting. I just, that, that one jumped out right away where you, you expect them to, uh, just on the short value that we're talking here. It's like, I feel like that's decent value. They're, they're minus one 70 minus one 75.
00:58:38
Speaker 3: Currently three and a half point favorites over the jets.
00:58:40
Speaker 2: All right.
00:58:41
Speaker 3: Cincinnati, Houston, Chicago.
00:58:44
Speaker 1: Before we jump into your biggest bets, brother, a reminder to everybody that our Sunday morning shows will now be live on our YouTube channel starting at 11 a.m.
00:58:54
Speaker 3: Eastern.
00:58:54
Speaker 1: This Sunday, the podcast will be released immediately after. But if you want to hear the final five in the most immediate way, Sunday mornings, join us live on YouTube at 11 a.m.
00:59:07
Speaker 3: Simon's Biggest Bets. Pull up those pants and be a man.
00:59:12
Speaker 2: I mean, like that was the brutal part of getting bullied by the Eagles. I thought I was going to be my bigger bets, but I've backed away from that one. So right now, since he has invested heavily into, obviously people know Houston, we've moved that number from two and a half now up to three. I've invested in that one pretty heavily. Denver plus three, if you can still find it. get in on it. That's one of my bigger bets as well. And, um, the Falcons touch plus three. I bet it really heavily. It's back to two and a half. Still going to keep betting it, but that's another game where you hope the public will chase after Sunday night into Monday and we'll get back to three. So that is one of the bigger bets. I'm not going to tell you to go heavy on the plus two and a half. I went heavy on Atlanta plus three. All right.
00:59:51
Speaker 1: Uh, last week for sharper square, we both lost. I had won the week before, so I get to go first. Um, I want to avoid it being Chad's choice, which was Houston. Simon Says was Philly. Our Brass Balls was Denver. I feel like the only option remaining is to take the Raiders, plus four and a half. So I'm going with the Raiders.
01:00:21
Speaker 2: And whoever keeps track, give me credit last year, because I did say it would have been Atlanta, but because I knew people weren't going to hear it. I don't know what I gave out, but I gave out something else. But Atlanta was my.
01:00:30
Speaker 1: You ended up giving out– I gave Miami plus 11, and you gave Baltimore minus 3.5. And to be fair, you did say Atlanta, and you gave out Baltimore. You had to give the 3.5.
01:00:43
Speaker 2: But they were 2.5-3, yeah.
01:00:46
Speaker 3: We had been.
01:00:46
Speaker 1: Betting them 2.5, really 2.5 early in the week.
01:00:51
Speaker 2: I talked big game on this team, so I'm going to try to back it up here. Who did you go, Chad? You went Raiders?
01:00:56
Speaker 4: Yeah.
01:00:58
Speaker 2: I guess– oh, man. I got to do it.
01:01:01
Speaker 3: Oh, wait.
01:01:02
Speaker 2: We did that as our brass balls. Okay. I'll do Cincy then. I'll do Cincy. Minus two and a half.
01:01:06
Speaker 4: All right.
01:01:07
Speaker 2: Yeah. I've talked a lot about Joe. I really believe in that team. So I got to back it up.
01:01:12
Speaker 3: All right. There we go.
01:01:15
Speaker 1: Last week's survivor pick was Kansas City. This week– I mean– You got to go to Minnesota. I was going to say, we got to go with the Vikings, right?
01:01:28
Speaker 2: It's going to be brutal.
01:01:30
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:01:31
Speaker 2: I mean, if they, if they blow, but yeah, like of all the ones that really jumped out, I've had some people try to get smart with it. Take Packers. Like, dude, someone that's like already been knocked out of survivor pools. Don't end your season, taking Green Bay against an unknown, unknown quarterback on Tampa. There's obviously no safe bet here, especially, I mean, you're looking at someone that's, I feel like I've lost three out of four years on Kyler Murray and survivor pools. but it's, it's so many points and it's a revenge spot for Flores. So yeah, let me, let me take the Vikings this week and survivor and just get it over with never to play them again.
01:02:06
Speaker 1: All right.
01:02:06
Speaker 3: It's going to be the Vikings in survivor. That's our show folks.
01:02:11
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return on Sunday morning with the final five for week four. We'll give out our official picks in the $ 25, 000 free. Pick them in contests. Sign up now, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. This has been Sharper Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods.
01:02:42
Speaker 3: Rate, review, subscribe.
01:02:43
Speaker 1: Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
01:02:50
Speaker 3: One in the world.
01:02:51
Speaker 2: There is absolutely no way possible that they should have snapped that ball and tried to sneak it. There were three, four, five guys.
Speaker 1: Welcome to sharper square presented by polymarket we are part of the volume podcast network this is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention i am chad millman i am joined as always by my co-host my bff my companion my compadre professional better simon hunter hello.
00:00:25
Speaker 2: Simon chad sorry about your cubs my friend Dude, it's rough.
00:00:33
Speaker 3: You know, I was thinking about it this morning.
00:00:35
Speaker 1: We had an MVP year with PCA. He went 40-40. Those are historic things. I'm going to take the good away from it. We had a lot of challenges throughout the year. There are things to improve. I'm only positive about this team. I wish I could take like all the, you know, there's all these White Sox videos going around about the players celebrating and they're glorious and they are so South Side of Chicago within that personality. I wish I loved the White Sox the way I love the Cubs. I wish I could get on the bandwagon. I'm going to be happy for the White Sox, but like I'm not getting Chicago joy out of it.
00:01:21
Speaker 3: I'll move on.
00:01:21
Speaker 1: I will say, also I got Case Keenum. So you can't have everything. I will say I loved the answer that Bryce Harper gave about what happens when you make a mistake and how you rally and move on. And then the next day he's hitting a bomb for the Phillies in a huge win. Like to me, I've always loved Bryce Harper. This to me just made him so much more approachable, in how he conveys himself to the community.
00:01:57
Speaker 3: Big fan.
00:01:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, really fun Phillies win that you're alluding to here. Obviously, anytime you have your two top guys go back-to-back home runs in the playoffs, it's euphoric. That's why we love playoff baseball. It's also a sickening feeling. I'm enjoying it, but it's also one of the things I hate about playoff baseball so much. You live and die so much pitch-to-pitch. Oh, yeah. Such a stressful– and we talked– I mean, the Cubs being back-to-back 10 o'clock games, I feel so bad for the diehard fans. Just staying up late to watch your teams get smoked after, you know, 160 games. It's tough. But I was joking with a buddy. I really love the Northeast fan base. Like, we're just– I mean, we're just angry. I just love back and forth. And I've really enjoyed Chicago back and forth between Chicago and Philly fans this last week. And I was saying, I just wish Chicago was in our division. Like I wish there was a rotation NFL of divisions. Cause I always say, I wish the Patriots were in my division. Like I love talking smack to pitch fans. My pitch fans are going to remember whoever's a fan of this show. I never will ever go on Twitter and blast the team that they're going to get blown out and talk smack to them. I did for the Patriots, the Superbowl, just because of their fan base. Like I would never be that loud unless I knew it was going to be right. And it's just fun. Like it's fun messing with the Patriots fan base. I feel the same with Chicago. Like, It's been really fun messing with them. So, yeah, I really was hoping for, obviously, a Phillies-Chicago baseball series. And that's gone. Now I've got to hope the next best thing is Phillies versus Milwaukee. So me and Matt Mitch are going to get after it. But, yeah, that Cubs season, like you said, was a really fun season. Just baseball is brutal, man. The wild card round. At least it's not one game. I always say that. Thank God it's three games. But, yeah, to get swept, though, too. I mean, the Phillies, I feel lucky that we didn't get swept. But you never know.
00:03:48
Speaker 1: Chicago fans are just not nearly as angry as Philly fans.
00:03:53
Speaker 2: Not true.
00:03:55
Speaker 3: I've never had that experience.
00:03:57
Speaker 2: Bring up Caleb Williams to a Chicago fan being zesty, and you will get a lot of pushback. Hey, this guy's tough. And the whole thing. Again, it's all about Chicago fans.
00:04:09
Speaker 3: Guy, don't talk about Caleb Williams.
00:04:11
Speaker 2: Exactly.
00:04:12
Speaker 3: Keep Caleb Williams' name out of your mouth.
00:04:16
Speaker 2: Chicago's got some angry fans, Chad. Don't sell them short.
00:04:20
Speaker 3: I'm mostly thinking about Cubs fans.
00:04:24
Speaker 1: They always have such low expectations in any win. So many Cubs fans are barely Cubs fans because they're about the experience around Wrigley, right? White Sox fans are angry. White Sox fans are Southside fans. Nobody wants to go to the Southside. Nobody wants to go. to their stadium. They're the second-class team in the second city. They got reasons to be angry. Cubs fans have.
00:04:52
Speaker 3: No reason to be angry because it's always a good time at Wrigley.
00:04:54
Speaker 2: Well, you lost the edge. You guys had the edge. You had the curse. I agree. I agree with that point that you just said. I definitely agree with that about the Cubs fans.
00:05:04
Speaker 3: Oh, I've had this conversation.
00:05:05
Speaker 1: A lot of people I know have said they obviously love winning the World Series, but they also... felt like chicago was just another team once chicago won the world series.
00:05:17
Speaker 2: And i will say one more one more point white socks the whole pope thing it's throwing me for a loop having the it's real be like yeah it's real literally just trying to put god's put god on their side and say he's if he can he's gonna help in every way possible it's like oh my god so it's it's definitely something to keep your eye on with this white socks team we just.
00:05:36
Speaker 1: I love this pope and astros I love this Pope, and I love what he's doing for the White Sox.
00:05:42
Speaker 3: Simon, it's our Thursday NFL Week 4 show. We're a little bit late.
00:05:45
Speaker 1: We had some tech issues, so we apologize. You're going to hear sharp calls, folks, brass balls, our underdog and favorite round robins, Simon's biggest bets, our sharp versus square, our Discord grouper of the week. This is the episode where Simon and I will narrow down our final five official picks for the free $ 25, 000... NFL Pick'em Contest. You can still sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top 10 finishers get paid $ 10, 000 for first place.
00:06:15
Speaker 3: Still totally free to enter. All right. Every week, we talk about our calls on Tuesday.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: Every week, Simon gets an earful of 48 hours from his wise guy friends telling us what they like, what they don't like, what they agree with, when they think Simon is being mean to me.
00:06:31
Speaker 3: It's time for Sharp Calls.
00:06:34
Speaker 2: Who's there? I'm talking.
00:06:36
Speaker 1: Ring, ring, telephone ring.
00:06:38
Speaker 3: Somebody said, baby, what you doing?
00:06:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish it was like last week. We have some new fans this show. They're like, why don't you give out that stuff every week? Guys, last week, you have to have so many things lined up. Like that Atlanta game, I was hoping it was going to be like Cleveland this week. I was like, oh, everyone's going to love Cleveland just like me. It's not. It's totally split. Tons of pros, really smart groups on Pittsburgh. Guys like me are all over Cleveland. Last week was just truly anonymous, especially that college play. People want college stuff. I can give it out. It's just if I come on here, I want it to be a slam dunk. We don't talk college, right? Every week there's going to be options, right? I think the big one this week for the pros is Mississippi State. It's not like it was last week. Last week guys were telling me they had Florida minus seven. I think the spread was minus three, minus three and a half. If you get three and a half points of value, it doesn't get much easier for me to come on this show and be like, hey, take a position on this one. Now, Mississippi State, it's not the same thing. Virginia Tech, I know it's another really sharp play this week. It's not the same thing, though. So people want college. I'll always try to give it out if I can. Like, if there's an easy– if we're getting three points of value, I promise you I'll come on here and give it out what the pros are betting. But, yeah, this week for the pros– kind of get beat up a little bit. It seems like me and Chad are both aligned on a lot of games that are just not the professional side. So it's going to be interesting to hear what people want to do with this because I've already placed money on this stuff. The biggest one, it would definitely be that Raiders-Chiefs game. The pros all over the Chiefs. And we are all, I mean, there are pros obviously on the Raiders like us, but it is definitely one of the more heavily called phone calls I got. It was just like, dude, you're totally overrating this Raiders team. Maybe they're right. I don't know. It's going to be hard. It's going to be hard because I did already bet into the Raiders. So that one jumped out right away of a game that we both loved.
00:08:39
Speaker 3: We're not getting bullied this week, Simon. We are not getting bullied.
00:08:42
Speaker 2: We're not getting bullied, but I'm also like, okay, I'm not, this isn't a slam dunk. One of our five. Now I'm definitely going to hesitate here because I will talk more about it, but there's definitely a reason to bring it up. Another game. I might be deadly wrong on that. A lot of pros on the other side of it. that Rams-Eagles game. I thought it was going to be all pros on the Eagles. Another game we'll talk more about, but there are some really smart groups taking position on that Rams team, especially when it was two and a half. Bad miss by me. Arizona, Chad was on it. I missed it. Pros, most I've talked to, they love Arizona's matchup. They like the matchup against the Giants. The number reflects that. I think Chad said it was plus two and a half, went to one and a half, flipped now. to minus one and a half. Now it's up to minus two and a half on that Arizona team. So apologies, another bad read by me. To games that I feel like we're on the right side with a lot of these pros. Broncos, again, we're going to dive into. A lot of pros love that side. Again, we didn't spend a ton of time on, but I think we will today. Atlanta, tons of love by the pros on Atlanta against the Saints. I think that's another one that's got a huge public side, that Saints team. I just think people are believers on the flip side. It doesn't matter. Atlanta blew out Green Bay. Just no public sentiment. Like right now, most shops I talk to, it's like we desperately are going to need Atlanta come Monday night. And, you know, last one we really talked about, Houston. People probably knew that was going to be a pro side, right? It was one and a half. Got up to two and a half. Now most books are showing three. some pros are resistance at the three for this Dallas team. When we talk about the pros do love Dallas, but overall that feels like a real, really sharp side of Houston. That's an O and three team as a favorite. You won't see that too often. So yeah, a lot of interesting calls, a lot of hate in the phone calls this week, Chad.
00:10:32
Speaker 1: Well, I don't mind when we're under the gun, when it's just you and me in the Fox hole, leaning on each other, playing the numbers. I'm excited to talk about that Raiders game. Cause I'm not even thinking about it as necessarily a on the field matchup as much as I'm thinking about it as a play the number matchup.
00:10:51
Speaker 3: So we'll get to it. Pittsburgh at Cleveland. You mentioned this briefly.
00:10:55
Speaker 1: There's not going to be a lot of people that can work off the advice if they're listening to the show, but you know, we both like Cleveland and I think it's going to get to three. It's juiced to move in that, in that direction. I've kind of been waiting to play it until it gets to that three and But I did play the under 38, 38 and a half.
00:11:14
Speaker 3: And it's it's moving down. So if you want to get a 38 and a half, you better get it fast.
00:11:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, in a game, I told you I was never going to avoid it. Like this is just my regularly scheduled bet every year. We take the Browns on Thursday night. And yeah, could it catch us finally? Sure. But we've won nine straight. What more do you guys want? It's like this is the exact scenario every year. It doesn't matter the Browns. I want two in a row. The public sentiment's not convinced, right? People do not believe in it. For good reason. Sean Watson's played, you could say, two good fourth quarters, and the rest of his games have kind of been mismatch and slop. So I totally get the hesitation of my people here, but it's really just another year of the Browns being undervalued. Whoever they're playing, divisional. Usually it's Cincinnati. This year it's the Steelers. Another divisional team coming on the road that the public is overrating. Like, I just... I don't want to overthink this one where I agree. It's like, could this one bite us? Sure. But it's now moving to plus three. You have to take that number. And if, if Polly market gets us a three and a half, it's like, Oh my God, that's great value in this matchup that you expect to be a low scoring Thursday night, sloppy game. And the Browns, as much as people don't believe in them, that defense looked really good against Carolina last weekend. Yes. And you know, I know we try not to overreact to this stuff because it's such a small sample through a couple weeks. But other than that Jaguars game, I mean, they look good against the Bucs too. And we said that's a lot on Baker. It was, but they still made the plays. It hasn't been noticeable the difference without Miles Garrett. To me, that's the biggest thing I've looked for in this Browns team where it's like you thought they would have no pass rush. They would get little pressure. They've been pretty good at getting after the quarterbacks. We are through three weeks, so. Aaron Rodgers coming off his best game in two, three years. I mean, he looked incredible. I get why the public is hammering them and believe in the Steelers team, but I'll just take the points here with the Browns and just hope this trend continues on the Browns success on Thursday night.
00:13:15
Speaker 3: Same and the under, under 38 and a half. All right.
00:13:20
Speaker 1: The Rams at Philly, the lines at three, it's trading at three and a half on the prediction markets. So clearly there has been money moving this in the, Ram's direction. This was Simon Says. I'm curious to hear about the professional sides that you've been talking to because we both like this on Tuesday because of the spot for the Eagles. You want to be an underdog coming off of a bad game and you want to bet on that team. That's an against the spread winner. You want to fade the public. That's an historic winner. So to me, I'm surprised to hear people coming in hard on the Rams when it seems like the perceived value should be on the Eagles, just playing the number in the spot.
00:14:14
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I think it's very telling that, um, I thought this was going to be a slam dunk professional side this week where the Eagles Jalen hurts. He's six and six and oh, his last six as a dog. Like he just, he's a covering machine. The rare chance you get as a dog now at home, I mean, we've talked about his home record. He's like 13-0 straight up at home. He just hurts his not lose at home. And I gave this tattoo. He's never lost to McVeigh. He's 4-0 against McVeigh, 3-0 against him in Stafford. So all this stuff points to it. I think the Zach Vaughn injury, he's got a concussion. He's in concussion protocol. To most pros I talk to, that's the biggest one because he's the difference maker in this matchup where you're going to need him to play and cover these tight ends. I mean, we've seen what The Rams want to run through their offense, right? They want to have two tight ends, sometimes three on the field. John Campbell, I mean, these stats are glaring. We give tons of love to Howie. Right now, Howie has a big miss where he let N'Kobi Dean walk, which I've talked about. He's gone to the Raiders, and he looks like a top three, top four linebacker right now in football. Tackling, all of it, making just incredible plays right now for the Raiders. The flip side, John Campbell looks lost. And when you dive into his numbers this season, he's basically allowed 140 passer rating, which is probably one of the worst at all the linebackers. 10 of 12 completions, 128 yards and a touchdown is what he's given up right now in coverage. That's not sustainable. That's literally a guy that should be benched, but they really can't because they have so much equity drafted into them. Right. The first round pick. trotter might play in this game which i think is a big deal for bond like i think this guy is a really good linebacker he probably should be playing over jod so maybe it's not that big of a deal but you're asking campbell now to be in coverage once again against these tight ends who just look great for the range so that's probably the biggest thing that's brought up to me about this matchup where it's like i think you're really overlooking the fact that campbell now is going to green dot he's going to be calling all the plays that bonds out and you know say what you want about zack one he won player defensive player of the week i think two weeks ago like this is you could say the the best player on the sequels defense that's struggling right now so it's tough right like this felt like a slam dunk especially polymark like i gave it out it's three and a half like i couldn't believe you were getting that number in this matchup where yeah the ramps could win but it won't be my winning a field goal so i'll still stay dug in but anyone out there i get it if you've already taken position on ramps two and a half if your contest is two and a half on ramps I'm not– I would have gave you a really hard time about betting it. Now I won't just because if Zach Vaughn is out and I can't reinstate how big of a deal that is, the Rams, yeah, with Puka back, this could be a long day for an Eagles team. I've given out the numbers defensively. They're one of the worst teams right now in football. So I get it. I wish I came here and just slammed the table because it's such a great spot for the Eagles. But if the injuries are hitting the Eagles like they are right now, it actually could turn into a nightmare defensively for them.
00:17:24
Speaker 3: I am so shocked by this development.
00:17:28
Speaker 1: The bone injury, maybe that's what's moving the needle here, but this to me just feels like, come on, the Eagles are the spot. Sometimes you're playing the spot. We're going to talk about this with the Chiefs and the Raiders too. Sometimes you are playing the spot and this needs to be a get right, get healthy spot for the Eagles. Sure, the Rams need to be there too, but I'm not saying the Rams need to, the Eagles need to win this game, but if you're getting three points for a team of this caliber that we think.
00:17:57
Speaker 3: Could go to the Super Bowl and they're at home, I don't know, man. I don't know.
00:18:05
Speaker 2: I agree. If it's three and a half Sunday morning, Chad, we're going to have a really, I don't know how we pass on that number.
00:18:12
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to have a hard time. I think we're going to want to put it in at three and a half. I hope we have that opportunity. Green Bay at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a three and a half point underdog at home. This has moved down from four on Tuesday. What's surprising to me is the massive amount of tickets coming in on the Bucks.
00:18:36
Speaker 3: Well north, it was at, let me just see what it says here.
00:18:39
Speaker 1: I think it's about 50, 50%. So it was at 52% yesterday. So a little bit of movement back to make it even. do we think it's the public getting smarter? Is it the public just hating the Packers before we came on the show, Matt Mitchell and I were talking about the sentiment in Wisconsin right now with the brewers about to take on the Padres. And he's like, everyone is out on the Packers earlier than I've ever seen in the state of Wisconsin.
00:19:10
Speaker 3: Matt lives in Milwaukee. I like, I wanted to bet the bucks at four.
00:19:16
Speaker 1: Um, I love Jalen Daniels, the quarterback from Kansas, undrafted. He wants to be the thermostat, Simon, not the thermometer. Matt Mitchell, play the clip.
00:19:29
Speaker 4: One thing I learned in college was, you know, you can't be a thermometer. You have to be the thermostat. You have to be someone who comes in and is able to set the temperature of the room, not test the room and try to be able to blend in with it. So if the team is low, I have to be able to pick it up to be able to make sure that they're even. And if we're high, then I have to be able to be low to be able to make sure that we even. I try to be even kill as possible, and the team around you feels that.
00:19:51
Speaker 3: Love his confidence. Love his attitude. Love this guy.
00:19:55
Speaker 2: I know I'm the slowest talk in the world, but would people rather me talk like him? He is the fastest talker I've heard in a while.
00:20:01
Speaker 3: My God, he is going to be fast to get those calls out.
00:20:04
Speaker 2: No, he's excited, man. He is excited. Uh, Yeah, like we joked, the W you know, the W you don't know. Some people just, they like the scenario. I mean, the trend we've talked about, these 0-3 trends, these teams that are 0-3, playing a team with at least one win, everyone sees it, 65%. Like, it's just, if you blindly bet the Bucs here, you know, there's a couple teams that fit that bill this week. That's, for the general public, that's what they're looking at, right? They're seeing these trends people are putting out there. It's an easy bet. You're getting plus three and a half against what we talked about, a Packers team that, you know, As much as their fans were in denial in the summer, right? When I came on your side, they might have one of the worst offensive lines, a bad defense. You couldn't be in denial, right? That was before your best offensive tackle got hurt, right? There's things to latch on to. You'd be like, well, we have great safeties if you're believing your defense. And Van Ness is going to take that next step, which is true. Van Ness has looked better. But you just see their defense overall, especially against Atlanta, they just can never stop the run. If you can't stop the run, eventually you're never going to be able to stop the pass, right? And the guys are just going to get heavy legs. green bay defense i can see how the bucks can move it on them right and he's talking they have a mobile quarterback now in the bucks like they're going to scheme up some type of plays and we've talked about like this baker's had guys open he's missed throws and even baker would admit that he's missed throws that he usually should make and you know they still have great weapons on the outside like gowan emeka buka like these are still great weapons bucky irvin's been really good this year too so i can see what the public's betting here honestly but um Yeah, another game maybe we're just missing. I'm still tempted to take Green Bay where it's just as bad as it's looked, I still have much more faith in their offense moving the ball and scoring points on this Bucs defense than I do an undrafted first-time starter quarterback. It's just either can go either way. This Bucs team could come out and this guy could be incredible, hair on fire. They can't catch him. He's just super fast, super athletic. We have no idea. I try to go back and watch his tape from this summer. I mean, he looked good, but it's like, he's praying against guys that aren't on anyone's rosters. It's just so hard to grasp these backup quarterbacks. So I'm happy if we avoid it. Like I gave out that stat, like someone's got to cover this one, but man, these two teams have just been absolutely awful. And just either side you bet, I think you're going to be disappointed.
00:22:24
Speaker 1: The teams that you mentioned in the spot where we will be betting some of them, the Owen three teams, the Bucs, the Texans, the Chargers, Miami.
00:22:41
Speaker 3: I'm personally going to play the Bucs.
00:22:45
Speaker 1: We can leave it out of the contest for sure, but this just feels like too much fun. I'm not going to play it for a whole unit even, but I do want a rooting interest on this game.
00:22:57
Speaker 3: I want to root for this kid. I like this spot.
00:23:01
Speaker 1: I'm as out on the Packers as the rest of Wisconsin until their offensive line improves. They're signing guys off the street. It's just everything is going wrong for them right now. I'm okay betting on a team in a spot like this, which is what the Bucs are in as a winless team at home as a dog.
00:23:20
Speaker 3: So I have no fear, Simon, no fear. It is time for.
00:23:27
Speaker 1: Our Brass Balls Trade of the Week, presented by Polymarket. It is the Denver Broncos trading at 2.5, currently at 48% on Polymarket, visiting the San Francisco 49ers. You know what it takes?
00:23:47
Speaker 2: It takes brass balls.
00:23:52
Speaker 1: We've got what they call in the business a reverse line move. which is indicated by the majority of tickets coming in on one side, but the money is moving the line in the other direction. So as you noted in sharp calls, the pros are on Denver. The game was three San Francisco minus three majority of ticks are on tickets are on San Francisco.
00:24:16
Speaker 3: The line has moved to two and a half.
00:24:21
Speaker 2: Yeah. I was really hoping this would go the other way. I was like, Oh man, I like the public, the pros, they might line up here on, this 49ers team who has looked great obviously through three weeks and we'll get to three and a half, but fortunately the pros did come in since we did our last show. And I, I mean, it makes sense, right? Probably market giving us three and a half. That would have been a real gift, but then being back down to two and a half just makes sense. It's just, it's going to be all professional money on this Broncos side, in my opinion, like the 49ers could be great. This is a great prove a game, but you're going to have no pass rush against a mobile quarterback. Like there's just, The injuries, as great as Fred Warner is, he only could cover up so much. You can't lose a guy like Nick Bosa and other pieces you had on the front line and just expect to keep winning games. You saw Bursette that second half. He was able to pass as much as he won Arizona against that 49ers team. It feels a little bit the same. We know the deal. This Broncos team seems to come out slow. I've told people, if you want to take a position on the 49ers, maybe do it first half if you want to, but I could just see the Broncos dominating this game wire to wire. Purdy Can he step up and keep playing MVP level? That's what you're going to need. And this is going to be by far the best defense he's played all year. So really interesting matchup-wise. And I talked a little bit about it. I just think the Broncos, we've seen it through three weeks, feel like a truly battle-tested team right now where the 49ers, I feel like they've gotten a nice break schedule-wise and just feel a little inflated. Like they're a good team this year, no doubt. 49ers are a good team. If they were healthy, they'd be a great team. And I feel like right now they're not healthy. So they're just a good team. They're facing absolute juggernaut here in the Broncos.
00:25:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't know. Obviously, Nick Bosa's out.
00:25:57
Speaker 1: Mike Evans, Trent Williams got dinged up. Expectations are that they'll play, but they still were coming off of a stinger for Trent Williams and an undisclosed rib injury for Mike Evans. This is entirely about a prove-it offensive game for Brock Purdy, right? He is going against the best defense that he will have faced this year. A great opportunity for the Broncos to build momentum off of that game against the Rams. Maybe they unlock something in the play calling against the Rams, especially without Nick Bosa playing. And there's other defensive line injuries. It sucks that we're not getting the three. We're not going to get the three in the contest. I don't see this going back down or going back up. But yeah, I think the Broncos are the side. Broncos are probably going to be in our money line parlay, underdog money line parlay too.
00:26:49
Speaker 3: So that is our brass balls.
00:26:52
Speaker 1: Trade of the week, the Denver Broncos trading at Polymarket plus two and a half, 48%. I need to tell you all about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. And Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweatpicks together every Sunday. in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Jacksonville, plus two and a half at Cincinnati. Simon, just based on the past week, the Jags dominating the Pats, the Bengals losing to the Steelers. This to me was another fade the public game because The flukiness in these games is never reflected in the market's point of view or in sort of the standard box scores, which is why nearly 60% of the tickets are on the Jags. And this line basically hasn't budged from two and a half. It's kind of being suppressed a little bit by the money coming in on the Bengals. I think it will get to three. It's still two and a half. I still like Cincinnati. Minus two and a half.
00:28:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, another game I was shocked, though. I thought more pros would be all over the Bengals with us, and it's another game that's very split. Not so much split where it's like, dude, you're making a huge mistake like people are saying we are with the Raiders, but a split nonetheless where it's like you're getting Joe under a field goal at home after a loss, like I said, that he puts on himself. And we talk all the time. Joe, I didn't have him at my top. I think I had him at number six, but we both view him as a top five, top six type of quarterback.
00:29:15
Speaker 3: I think I had him just behind Drake May.
00:29:18
Speaker 2: He's a really good quarterback so it's like you just have to believe him to bounce back and it's like you know as much props that we're giving to the jaguars like we've talked about it's it's a very small sample we've seen them be dominant at home and struggle on the road like that that broncos game going back and watching it i did say it was a brian Thomas game where he had some horrible drops and you even saw this past week, like Trevor Lawrence didn't go to him anywhere near as much. He had the week before where it's like, even he was saying, if I'm going down, it's gonna be a park of Washington. Like, I don't care if it's third down now, I'm just looking for my number one. I'm not messing around with these, these guys who just have the yips. It looks like. So yeah, Yeah, this one jumped out to me right away of like, okay, it's under three. The fact that the public and professional money is on the Jaguars, like Chad said, it's not a bunch. If we came in today and it was plus one and a half, it's like, okay, maybe me and Chad are walking into it here. Maybe the Jags are the right side, but I think professional money will come and this will get back up to minus three by Sunday. It just feels like this is going to be the right side. The Brewers will come on and I just expect a big bounce back, not just from the Bengals' defense, but from Joe Burrow. This just feels like the exact type of game where Joe bounces back and wins these type of scenarios. We've seen his stats play out where he does always struggle the first two weeks where I know they went 2-0, but if you looked at underlying stats, Joe wasn't really playing to Joe's level. You saw a little bit of that last week. He had a couple balls that were 50-50 balls that did go his way, but overall, you just saw him be more confident and look more comfortable in that offense, so I expect another week here against a Jaguars team that, yes, defensively they look good. We've talked about it. There's ways to attack this defense. They're not some type of incredible juggernaut. So just looking at matchup scheme-wise, I think we're getting a free half a point here on this Bengals team. We have to take advantage of it. You're getting Joe under a field goal here. I can't say that enough. These are the exact type of games Joe usually wins.
00:31:17
Speaker 1: We are so far very aligned on a– On a couple of games, Denver and Cincinnati for sure. I feel like you're waffling a little bit on the Eagles, but I'm still confident in the Eagles. The next game to discuss, the Houston Texans hosting the Dallas Cowboys. This line has moved up to three. This was Chad's choice when the Texans were at two and a half. It opened at one and a half, moved to two and a half. In the last 24 hours, it's gotten to three. On the prediction markets, it's trading at three and a half. So that tells you that that's where the money is consistently coming in. The Cowboys have since traded for Joey Porter. No idea if that's going to have an impact. I don't even know if he's going to play this weekend, but this is one of those spots. We got a home team, winless. They're playing a team that's already won. But I think we're starting to see this Texans defense get better and better. And this Cowboys defense, I don't know who's going to be playing in the secondary, even if Joey Porter can play, because they were just dropping like flies against the Ravens. So we got to believe in D'Amico Ryans. We got to believe in the Texans covering at a short number at home.
00:32:42
Speaker 2: I can't imagine being a Cowboys fan now because you're just– It's the same way– not that I feel bad about this country, but like having someone in power that's above the age of 80, it's terrifying. Like this man is just burning down their future for what? Like what is he all in on right now with this Cowboys team? Like sure, are they good because they won this division? Yeah, but do you really– like I just can't imagine his mind really thinking they're going to beat Seattle the Rams in the playoffs. It's just– It's crazy at this point. Pickens is a free agent after this year. The guy that just traded for Porter is a free agent after this year. Are they going to pay all these guys that they just traded all this draft capital for? It's bizarre what Jerry Jones is doing right now. But you can't hate the move if you're a Cowboys fan. Your whole secondary is banged up. So, yeah, bring this guy in. But, I mean, how many times have we seen someone sit out the first three, four weeks, come in and have a hamstring injury? Like, it's just... It feels like it never works out for guys who hold out, sit out, and then come out and play. This guy's had no physical contact. Who knows if he's even tackled to the ground in a year? Since their last game of last season, who knows what he's done in camp with Pittsburgh because he was trying to get paid. He was not going to risk getting hurt and not getting paid. Now he's on a new team, still not paid. They didn't give him a new contract, which I'd be terrified if I was a Cowboys fan. You just have an owner that just feels like, They're going a little senile doing some crazy stuff because they want to win right now, which has that ever worked out from anybody? I mean, go ask the Colts about trading for a sauce garter. It just doesn't– this league, it does not work that way. It really, really does not work that way. It's so rare. So, yeah, I'm happy to see it going up, Jack, because this is another game where it just felt– we talked Sunday night. It felt too easy. It really did. It's like we're getting an 0-3 team at home. total back against the wall against a team coming back from international game, an embarrassing loss. Like, yeah, can this, can Dak lead these guys that bounce back? Like that would give me a ton of respect to them and them going forward this season, the Cowboys, because this is like the worst spike could possibly be. Just couldn't, couldn't have been worse vibes. Maybe they have, you know, great practice this week, but how do you have any confidence in your head coach right now? Like even Shiner openly admitted he blew that game under the game. It just feels so bad. Such a turning point type of game for Cowboys. Flipside Texans, this is to save your season. And you have a coach here that, how can you not see he's playing for his job right now? Like you've had back-to-back years starting 0-3. He turned around last year and went to the playoffs, won a playoff game. So, you know, going back off his history, he tends to get his guys right and bounce back in these games. And just matchup-wise, We're really hoping Nico is back because, like we talked about, Cowboys secondary is in shambles right now. And their best player might be a guy who hasn't played in nine months. So, yeah, we really hope Nico's back. That's another reason this number could be going up. Maybe people already got the word Nico is going to be back. So that's why it's moving up the way it is. So, yeah, grab the three and a half if you still can. There's still a couple of shops you might be able to find three and a half. But I think by the time everyone hears this, it's all going to be threes across the board. So hopefully people grab it when you gave it out, Chad, on Tuesday.
00:35:58
Speaker 1: Uh, Ben Solak, our buddy, Ben Solak from ESPN, who's been on the show, had a tweet the other, I think after the Joey Porter trade, that the Cowboys wouldn't pay Micah Parsons, I think something like 45, 50 million a year. And they have since rated four players that they are going to have to pay if they decide to pay Joey Porter between their defensive line and their backfield, that they're going to have to pay a combined 60 plus million to. none of whom have the impact that Micah Parsons has. That's number one. Number two, we talked about the spot for the Texans and the spot for some of these winless teams. Here's a great one from our buddy Evan Abrams over at Action. Winless teams that have performed well against the spread, so they haven't been blown out. Like the Texans, 57% against the spread in the past 20 years. That's a sample size. of more than 400 games. Another indication, this is a pro-Joe game. About a third of the tickets are on Houston, which is shocking to me. But the line has moved in the direction of the Texans. And like I said, on the prediction markets, buying the Texans is much more expensive, about 54%. So yeah, we'll be on the Texans. Arizona at the New York Giants. It's not a contest play.
00:37:27
Speaker 3: You mentioned it.
00:37:27
Speaker 1: I put it in the script before I knew about sharp calls. The Cardinals were one and a half point underdogs. They are now two and a half point favorites, a huge swing. What were you hearing from the wise guys about this game generally? And does anybody think there's a value in betting on the Cardinals as short road favorites at this point?
00:37:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, like I said, bad miss by me. I wish I was on this Cardinals one. Right away, I immediately was like, this is going to be a nice giant spot. They just played in a tsunami. Didn't score a touchdown. I think they scored 12 points against Tennessee. No one's going to be backing them. Everyone's going to be leaving this team for dead. I mean, James Winston, through two games, has done nothing to give anyone any type of confidence. And, I mean, even his own team is bringing in J.J. McCarthy as, you know, could he be their savior this season? I don't know. That feels like another– future play hedge. I know I've seen crazier things. I will never doubt ever again after Sam Darnold won a Superbowl. Like you couldn't, you would have told me that five years ago, I would, I would have been like, not possible.
00:38:31
Speaker 3: Totally fair. Totally fair.
00:38:33
Speaker 2: He earned it. So JJ, we just, we both believe so much at KOC. If KOC is giving you away for a fifth round pick, something's gotta be wrong. Something's gotta be wrong there. So I get people's hesitation here. It just feels like a stand I need to make, especially it's a two and a half now in the Giants. It's just can't they run the ball down their throats with Cam Scadaboo and just pass the ball downfield against a suspect Cardinals defense? It's like this team is not that good. It just really is. Is Brissette going to have his A game? Like if Brissette shows up and he can put up 24, 30 points, yeah, Cardinals easily cover win this game. But I just think the public is too low on this Giants team. So I'm just– I was just interested to see that every pro I talked to is just like, oh, Cardinals– No problem. Take that number. You're getting under three. Take that number. They're going to be able to move the ball against this Giants team. I don't know. Are we not overrating a little bit this Cardinals team? Just a little bit. so i'm excited to see this one play out because if the cardinals do win this game yeah i'm gonna definitely move them up in my grading right now because this this offense could be really legit maybe i am underrating them because you know they've looked great week one look great last week and i guess you could say junk time but they still made the play so yeah really interesting game the back and forth between pros and uh the public here.
00:39:45
Speaker 1: Corner tv potential but we'll both be watching the game uh Real quickly, Miami, I don't even want to talk about it. I just want to say the Bucs are in that spot. They're 10 and a half point dogs as a winless team. The Vikings are one of the worst offenses in NFL history, literally for an undefeated team. I think they're averaging like 137 passing yards per game. And again, shout out to Evan teams that average 150 yards passing or less in the fourth game of the season. or later, are 40% against the spread. And they're the first team to start 3-0 and average fewer than 250 yards on offense since Jim Brown, as a rookie, led the Cleveland Browns in 1957. So look, probably not going to be in the contest. I would imagine both of us are going to have a little bit of a play on Miami. I just want to make that case. I want people to be aware of that. We're not abandoning our principles just because we think the Dolphins are really terrible.
00:40:54
Speaker 2: No, I hate it. The Dolphins are probably going to end up being another week with them being one of my bigger bets. I just keep betting it. And it's not only because I like the matchup because I've talked to this Vikings team. They're just living on coaching right now. They just have such good coaching. That's the only hesitation here because it is Flores playing against a team he is currently suing. So you don't think his defense is going to go to war for their coach? I know people have asked me about that. It's like, you're not wrong. Somebody who plays sports, any extra motivation you can get. And that's a big extra motivation. This team disrespected this man, tried to smear his name through the mud. So that gives me pause. But the biggest one that jumped out to me is, it might have been the Vizin guys, or maybe it was Action guys. I don't know where I saw this trend. It was on Twitter, but Basically, the Vikings, who scored more than 20 points last week and did nothing offensive. I think they had less than 10 first downs and are now double-digit favorites. In this exact spot, they're 2-22 against the spread, the Vikings. So just blindly, you're getting a 90% play on the Dolphins. And I know it's sickening, but it's just a rare opportunity. It doesn't happen that often. Yeah. I'm not shocked to see every teaser, all the money, everything pouring on the Vikings. I expect come Sunday this will be a pretty split between the public. I think the public will bet the Dolphins just because people are going to hear those trends and just look at this Vikings team. It's like they've done nothing through three weeks, and they're 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread. It's been great for me. I've been backing this team, and I'm loving it. That's what's probably so hard for me right now where it's like, I get it. I get why we're supposed to bet the Dolphins here. But the Vikings winning 20-0 is on the table. Like, Flores not letting the Dolphins cross the 50 is on the table. This man, I have to look it up again, but he might be at like a 70% blitz percentage this season. Just a total psychopath. I love it. Like, the Vikings defense is so much fun to watch. So, really, really interesting what we talk about come Sunday morning. Because as we say right now, it's like, I feel like we have to play the Dolphins. And I'm trying everything in my body to have us avoid it because last week was so painful. But like Chad said, we know what we're supposed to do here. You're supposed to play the Dolphins and not think about it. So really a tough one to handicap.
00:43:21
Speaker 3: Kansas City at Las Vegas.
00:43:22
Speaker 1: The Raiders are four and a half point underdogs. Look, you and I both loved it on Tuesday. You were wondering at the time why more love hadn't come in from the professionals on the Raiders.
00:43:35
Speaker 3: The spot is the spot.
00:43:37
Speaker 1: You know, whether it's Mahomes as a favorite of more than three or home dogs in the division or two undefeated teams and betting the home dog, the Raiders are the side. In every scenario, the Raiders are the side. The trepidation now is concerning. So lay it on us. Let's talk this through. Let's see where we land. Let's have a deep and meaningful discussion.
00:44:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, the question is– Are we wrong? Yeah, it's just are we totally overrating this Raiders team? And that's my hardest part is, like, going back and watching all their games. It's like, Kirk looks so good. He's playing so comfortable in this offense. Like, the fact that he was doing what he was doing before Bowers came back and then you saw last week with Bowers.
00:44:27
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:44:28
Speaker 2: Kubiak is in his bag right now. He literally– you can say he spent six months– building this offense around Bowers. Like it felt like that in that game where he's moving them all over the field, lining them up all different, different places going. I mean, they're, we talk about the two tight end sets. This is a team that they're paying their backup tight end, like $ 50 million for the next three or four years or something crazy like that. So it's a team that's perfectly built for the way the NFL is gone now. And Gentry has looked incredible too. So yeah, it's really interesting. I really can't get over the fact that the pros love the chief so much. And there's something we're missing here because, from what I've seen from this Chiefs defense is you can move the ball. They're just another bend and don't break type of spags defense where, yeah, they're not going to let you score touchdowns. And maybe that's what happens here in this game where Mahomes gets the, gets the touchdowns and we get stuck with the field goals on the Raiders side. But I just, I'm scary check is this number has not budged despite a lot of pros and a lot of hammering this Raiders side. So if we come here Sunday morning, Chad's on his soapbox and saying, I don't care. I'm taking the Chiefs. I might just have to laugh and be like, all right, we'll go Chiefs. But I don't know if we'll ever end up on the Raiders come Sunday morning because there's just so many things that are scaring me off this line. So maybe you'll stay. You'll stay hard. You'll like the Raiders. And I could get pushed into it come Sunday morning. But right now, as we stand here, it's like I feel like we should be taking the Chiefs. We're missing something here where it's like the numbers try to tell us what to do here. And we're trying to think we're smarter than numbers, smarter than books. And usually that's when you get caught.
00:46:04
Speaker 1: I am shocked by your response to the feedback from your professional betting brethren. It must be, you know, you've mentioned it on the show a couple of times.
00:46:19
Speaker 3: There's this one.
00:46:20
Speaker 1: Group that you really respect that is dialed in on the Chiefs. are they having an outsized influence on our conversation right now?
00:46:31
Speaker 2: They're in on the chiefs. They lost with us on Miami last week. So it's like, I wish I could say that you guys are locked, locked in, but no, they're two on one on chief games. But yeah, they're, they're on the chiefs this week. They're, you're definitely not wrong about that. They're, they're one of the guys that are holding this number up and it's really respected money clearly. Cause we said, it's like, you talk, there's different, you know, polyamory market, different shops. It's like, yeah, 80%, 70% of the money right now is on this Raiders team. So, Yeah, I'm really interested where this number goes this week because it's– I would feel much better about the Raiders if we come in Sunday morning as three and a half. Then I'm like, okay, let's dance with the devil and go against Moms here. But if it's still sitting here at four and a half, it's going to be pretty terrifying.
00:47:10
Speaker 1: All right, we'll put– we don't need to be– it's not about bravado.
00:47:16
Speaker 3: It's about being right.
00:47:18
Speaker 1: And I'd rather be thoughtful and cautious on Thursday– and not try to plant a flag before we need to plant a flag. Let's get as much information as we can. Let's be as confident as possible. We still got 48 hours. We loved them on Tuesday. We're bed into the Raiders. Nothing we can do about that. Like I'm not buying out of the Raiders, but it doesn't have to be in the final five.
00:47:40
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll just put the bucks in instead. Maybe that's, maybe that's what we'll do.
00:47:45
Speaker 2: I want a rapid fire. We are going to get to it. Yeah. I want to talk to this game.
00:47:50
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah.
00:47:51
Speaker 1: Carolina plus three and a half, Sunday Night Football. You know, the worry was whether or not Bryce Young would play. I believe he is going to play.
00:47:58
Speaker 3: He's expected to.
00:48:00
Speaker 1: The Panthers defensive backfield, J.C. Horn, cornerback, Mike Jackson, cornerback, both on IR right now. To be honest, we could try to dissect that part of the game. That's not really the worry. Like, whether they're in or out, the Panthers are going to have to score on practically every possession. We're betting on Bryce Young to beat up the Lions defensively. beleaguered defense, but we also know the Lions are going to move the ball. We know it's an outdoor game that doesn't bode as well for Jared Goff historically. I still feel pretty good. We want to be on Carolina here. I'm betting into Carolina at the three and a half.
00:48:39
Speaker 2: I am too, but it's brutal. Like you, you want your two starting corners, especially in this matchup against this, this Depot receiving core. So yeah, another number that's just bizarre to me. Those, that injury news all came out. Which I just said, the number didn't budge at all. So, yeah, come Sunday night, the books are going to desperately need the Panthers. I mean, who's not betting from the public betting this Lions team?
00:49:01
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:49:03
Speaker 2: We know the deal. This is a team that could easily steamroll this Panthers team, right? Put up a ton of points. So, be careful, people, on the total here. I think the total is 51.5. I would say that kind of is like the type of spot where you want to take the under. It's two two offense that people are really hyped on and they don't believe their defenses usually this is exact time both offenses fall on their face but um i was shocked to see the high of a total uh with everything that's going on with bryce young and this offense like it feels like panthers if there's ever a game they're gonna run the ball more this would be it like the lions just they're not great against the run either so Yeah, I want to touch on this one because people asked about it. I'm still with Chad. I'm still on it with the Panthers. It's just not ideal now losing your number one, number two cornerbacks against an offense that we talked about. It's just anytime they need a third down, obviously there's no one that can stop on Monse Brown, right? But you can mitigate it in some ways. And now they're just going to basically have to play zone this whole game. You're never going to be able to run man with backup corners against this offense. So you're going to be running a ton of zone with a bunch of blitzes against Goff. Can it work here? I mean, it has to, right? We've seen Jared Goff's numbers. He's horrible, especially this season. He's been horrible when he gets pressured. So that's what it's going to be. It's really going to be a ton of zone with a ton of blitz and Carolina's going to live and die. And then the flip side lines team, can they take away Bryce Young's options downfield? Like Coker, if he's healthy in this game, to be determined, we need him to be healthy though. Like this is one of these Sunday morning, we're fighting about putting this one in. I still don't know if Coker's going to play or not. I wouldn't force this one. He's been that great for them. And, You saw it last week with the Browns. They only scored one touchdown. You can't say it didn't matter not having them in that game. They suffered four field goals in that game. So, yeah, another injury to keep your eye on.
00:50:47
Speaker 1: That, to me, is the much more important injury than the defensive backs because they're going to need to score nonstop no matter what. Totally agree with you. Interesting game. It's another one we're going to have to put a pin in. I will say 35% of the tickets on Carolina– as the home dog right now. If you haven't bet Carolina and you're still curious, you can probably hold off. This line is juiced to move like it's going to go to four. By Sunday, you might be getting four and a half at prediction markets if everyone else has moved to four.
00:51:20
Speaker 3: So something to keep an eye on. You don't have to rush on this one. Simon, it is time.
00:51:27
Speaker 1: For our Discord grouper of the week. I know how much you love the Discord. Pre-order the number. At readthenumber.com, get an invite. We're raising money for St. Jude's when you pre-order the book. Speaking of my book, The Number, Matt Mitchell received a video clip this week from longtime listener John Goulet, which Matt would like to play for us right now. I don't know what this is, so I'm excited to hear it.
00:51:57
Speaker 2: Buy my book! Buy my book! Buy my book!
00:52:05
Speaker 3: It's funny.
00:52:06
Speaker 1: You know what's funny? Simon, the other day, you came after my artistry. And what I loved is in the YouTube comments, the YouTube comments are amazing, but there ended up being a very long thread in which I weighed in on about art and commerce and who is a true artist. It was about Leonardo da Vinci, Renoir.
00:52:34
Speaker 3: Rembrandt.
00:52:36
Speaker 1: I just thought it was hilarious that in the middle of a betting show comment section, there were comments about, can you be an artist if you are actually doing it in the pursuit of money? And my point to that is yes, because you want to continue to create art. And part of that is commerce, which is why I pitched the book because I worked hard on it and I'd like people to buy it. And so I can do it again. And don't forget, if you buy 10 of them, I'm doing a book club with.
00:53:09
Speaker 3: You, whether it's Zoom or in person.
00:53:12
Speaker 1: I've already had a couple of those people email sharp or square at thevolume.com with their proof of purchase so I can do it. So thanks for sparking a good discussion, Simon.
00:53:23
Speaker 3: I know you want to weigh in.
00:53:24
Speaker 2: The only reason I said that was just because you were literally breaking down to us why you're, you're selling your book. Is it for, we're all idiots. It's like, Chad, we know, we know why you're selling your books, buddy. You don't have to break it down to us while you're trying to make money selling a book. You love writing books. But yeah, that, that's just a, I say like, there's a bunch of art, artistic signs. That's one of my favorite ones. I mean, the biggest one truly is how can you be an artist in life if you're not suffering, which I do agree with. Like it's someone that does what I think is a form of art sports betting and it is better when we suffer, right? If we're always happy and it's all good, we're always winning. You're not low. You're not learning. You're not growing, right? You're not getting better at your craft. So I do think that is part of it. And yeah, like anyone out there, that's a suffering artist. I always tell people, if you believe in it, like Chad said, it's a, it is technically a hobby. It's not your job yet. Stick to it, man. Everyone that's in the position of success all started out where you were at, man. They just, no one's going to believe in you have to believe in yourself. So, Chad wants to make a living doing what he loves. I'm going to make fun of him about it, but that's literally the dream in life. People, go after your dreams, man. It's your life. You're in total control.
00:54:40
Speaker 1: Couldn't be said better. My older son just graduated from Drexel. He wants to get into the video game business and wants to write the stories, the narratives for adventure games, tabletop games like Dungeons and Dragons, things like that.
00:54:58
Speaker 3: I keep telling them, dude, it's a creative field.
00:55:00
Speaker 1: It might take you 15 years. You might be working part-time at your rock climbing gym for a very long time. And I have friends in the movie business who took that long and then they made shows that have become some of the most popular shows, I'm not even exaggerating, in history. And now they're wildly successful. You just don't know. There's no path for when you want to be in a creative field.
00:55:26
Speaker 3: Uh, Simon's right. You do have to suffer.
00:55:28
Speaker 1: It's nice if you can put food on the table and you suffer for the art, not because you're hungry.
00:55:34
Speaker 3: Uh, but I appreciate all the support.
00:55:36
Speaker 1: Uh, this week, the winner for the discord groupers and outline parlay of Buffalo minus one and a half in Seattle, minus one and a half. Both games against teams in the Patriots and chargers in serious turmoil right now. We got that at minus one 25 Simon. What should we do for our underdog round robin parlay?
00:56:02
Speaker 2: My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.
00:56:08
Speaker 3: Feels like we want to put the Broncos in there.
00:56:10
Speaker 2: Oh, definitely. And we didn't talk about Atlanta as another one of my bigger bets this week. I really love Atlanta's plus two and a half. So that would definitely have to get in our round robin. I just think the public is still too low on Pennix.
00:56:21
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:56:22
Speaker 2: I just needed to see he was able to move in the pocket. I know he's not going to run, run the ball, right. He's coming back from some major knee injury, but I was so happy to see his movement inside the pocket. So that's another dog I really like. So yeah, then Broncos, I know I didn't give him the most warming love to him, but the Eagles plus one 40. Yeah.
00:56:40
Speaker 3: I got the Eagles in there.
00:56:41
Speaker 2: Sure. Dogs are really good to us last week. That's, that's my only hesitation. We banked so heavily. I think we went four and one last week on our, we did. Yeah. So it's, We're going back to the well on that one for sure. Can we throw the international game in there just because it's plus 160 in an international dog? I know the international dogs aren't great, though, so now that I think about it, maybe we should avoid them.
00:57:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't love that one, but... Okay. What about Tampa?
00:57:09
Speaker 2: That's all you. I know you love Tampa. Why not? Sure.
00:57:12
Speaker 3: It just feels like... I wouldn't do it, but.
00:57:15
Speaker 2: They fit the 0-3 against a 1-2. Yes. So, like, they do fit that trend, that bill. So I won't fight you on that.
00:57:23
Speaker 1: Should we be doing, you know, someone who's a bit longer that isn't Miami, a plus 10 and a half.
00:57:29
Speaker 2: Yeah. Like our longest, our longest one is the one I just, I know I'm gonna get a ton of shit for by the pros, but I mean the Raiders, I would do it. Yeah.
00:57:38
Speaker 3: I only didn't mention it.
00:57:39
Speaker 2: It's plus one 80.
00:57:40
Speaker 3: All right. So do the Raiders. So our underdog round Robin.
00:57:45
Speaker 2: Rate, can you imagine we're sitting here on Tuesday? Raiders are four now.
00:57:49
Speaker 3: I know.
00:57:51
Speaker 1: Denver, Atlanta, Philly, Tampa, Las Vegas. Those are the underdog round robin parlay. Our favorites round robin, we tend to only do three of those.
00:58:06
Speaker 3: You know, Cincy.
00:58:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cincy is definitely one.
00:58:09
Speaker 3: Houston. Houston. I like doing them a little bit shorter so we can get a better price.
00:58:15
Speaker 2: How do we not? throw the bears and I know it's a letdown spot, but it's like, that's interesting. I just, that, that one jumped out right away where you, you expect them to, uh, just on the short value that we're talking here. It's like, I feel like that's decent value. They're, they're minus one 70 minus one 75.
00:58:38
Speaker 3: Currently three and a half point favorites over the jets.
00:58:40
Speaker 2: All right.
00:58:41
Speaker 3: Cincinnati, Houston, Chicago.
00:58:44
Speaker 1: Before we jump into your biggest bets, brother, a reminder to everybody that our Sunday morning shows will now be live on our YouTube channel starting at 11 a.m.
00:58:54
Speaker 3: Eastern.
00:58:54
Speaker 1: This Sunday, the podcast will be released immediately after. But if you want to hear the final five in the most immediate way, Sunday mornings, join us live on YouTube at 11 a.m.
00:59:07
Speaker 3: Simon's Biggest Bets. Pull up those pants and be a man.
00:59:12
Speaker 2: I mean, like that was the brutal part of getting bullied by the Eagles. I thought I was going to be my bigger bets, but I've backed away from that one. So right now, since he has invested heavily into, obviously people know Houston, we've moved that number from two and a half now up to three. I've invested in that one pretty heavily. Denver plus three, if you can still find it. get in on it. That's one of my bigger bets as well. And, um, the Falcons touch plus three. I bet it really heavily. It's back to two and a half. Still going to keep betting it, but that's another game where you hope the public will chase after Sunday night into Monday and we'll get back to three. So that is one of the bigger bets. I'm not going to tell you to go heavy on the plus two and a half. I went heavy on Atlanta plus three. All right.
00:59:51
Speaker 1: Uh, last week for sharper square, we both lost. I had won the week before, so I get to go first. Um, I want to avoid it being Chad's choice, which was Houston. Simon Says was Philly. Our Brass Balls was Denver. I feel like the only option remaining is to take the Raiders, plus four and a half. So I'm going with the Raiders.
01:00:21
Speaker 2: And whoever keeps track, give me credit last year, because I did say it would have been Atlanta, but because I knew people weren't going to hear it. I don't know what I gave out, but I gave out something else. But Atlanta was my.
01:00:30
Speaker 1: You ended up giving out– I gave Miami plus 11, and you gave Baltimore minus 3.5. And to be fair, you did say Atlanta, and you gave out Baltimore. You had to give the 3.5.
01:00:43
Speaker 2: But they were 2.5-3, yeah.
01:00:46
Speaker 3: We had been.
01:00:46
Speaker 1: Betting them 2.5, really 2.5 early in the week.
01:00:51
Speaker 2: I talked big game on this team, so I'm going to try to back it up here. Who did you go, Chad? You went Raiders?
01:00:56
Speaker 4: Yeah.
01:00:58
Speaker 2: I guess– oh, man. I got to do it.
01:01:01
Speaker 3: Oh, wait.
01:01:02
Speaker 2: We did that as our brass balls. Okay. I'll do Cincy then. I'll do Cincy. Minus two and a half.
01:01:06
Speaker 4: All right.
01:01:07
Speaker 2: Yeah. I've talked a lot about Joe. I really believe in that team. So I got to back it up.
01:01:12
Speaker 3: All right. There we go.
01:01:15
Speaker 1: Last week's survivor pick was Kansas City. This week– I mean– You got to go to Minnesota. I was going to say, we got to go with the Vikings, right?
01:01:28
Speaker 2: It's going to be brutal.
01:01:30
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:01:31
Speaker 2: I mean, if they, if they blow, but yeah, like of all the ones that really jumped out, I've had some people try to get smart with it. Take Packers. Like, dude, someone that's like already been knocked out of survivor pools. Don't end your season, taking Green Bay against an unknown, unknown quarterback on Tampa. There's obviously no safe bet here, especially, I mean, you're looking at someone that's, I feel like I've lost three out of four years on Kyler Murray and survivor pools. but it's, it's so many points and it's a revenge spot for Flores. So yeah, let me, let me take the Vikings this week and survivor and just get it over with never to play them again.
01:02:06
Speaker 1: All right.
01:02:06
Speaker 3: It's going to be the Vikings in survivor. That's our show folks.
01:02:11
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return on Sunday morning with the final five for week four. We'll give out our official picks in the $ 25, 000 free. Pick them in contests. Sign up now, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. This has been Sharper Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods.
01:02:42
Speaker 3: Rate, review, subscribe.
01:02:43
Speaker 1: Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
01:02:50
Speaker 3: One in the world.
01:02:51
Speaker 2: There is absolutely no way possible that they should have snapped that ball and tried to sneak it. There were three, four, five guys.
