00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes Square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
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Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman.
00:00:13
Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
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Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
00:00:28
Speaker 3: Chad, how are we doing?
00:00:30
Speaker 1: Betting is so fun, funny, stupid. On Sunday night, we are recording this show. And brother, we are in agony because we've barely escaped going 0-4. We needed the miracle two-point conversion from old man Kirk Cousins to get the Raiders to cover against the Chiefs for our lone win on Sunday. we're one in three heading into Monday night. We have Atlanta and they cover no problem. And then if you look at the games and you pointed this out, so I'm not telling you anything you don't know, like you got to stay even. Cause if you look at the three losses in context of the whole week, we're just as close to being three and two with the with the Broncos covering, or we're just as close to being 1-4 with the Raiders not getting the two-point spread. So it's like you can't win for trying, man.
00:01:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard. It's a hard job. I've never made light of that. But sometimes it's really easy. Last night it was easy. Yeah, even the Panthers were easy. Panthers were easy. There's easy wins out there, Chad. Can you find those easy wins, my friend? And right now we're having a tough time finding them and putting them in the contest. So, yeah, it sucks. The contest is really tough, but at the same time, just stick to it and the results will play out as they should, which is a winning record for us. So, yeah, it's tough not to win on Sunday, but it's also like, okay. kind of got to get over and move on. That's the whole point of this business. So yeah, it's, I'm only as good and as bad as my last bets. And right now I'm two and a, on my last two bets, Chad.
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Speaker 2: Well, it's funny you point that out.
00:02:31
Speaker 1: Cause you know, I know you don't like to look at the comments, but I do dig into the comments on YouTube and on Twitter. And we're, we're very lucky. We, you and I and Matt Mitchell have been doing the show together for.
00:02:45
Speaker 2: A long time. And because we've, Usually one, we have.
00:02:51
Speaker 1: Some goodwill built up here and a lot of listeners pointed out in all the comments that we used to actually do a better job of track back in the action days.
00:03:02
Speaker 2: We used to do a better job of tracking everything we liked.
00:03:06
Speaker 1: So like we might've had a place where we had logged Miami and.
00:03:13
Speaker 2: The bears and Carolina.
00:03:15
Speaker 1: And so we probably need to figure out a way to do that because Even our commenters are like, dudes, you're giving out games that you like. You're just not putting them in the contest. Why aren't you doing a better job of tracking all that? So we can discuss how we can better illuminate when we are on the easy wins instead of the choices that get so hard in the final five on Sunday.
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Speaker 3: And let the record show, people, you guys can say whatever you want to. I literally do not care. Chad cares, clearly. by your comments. He reads it all though. I don't care. If I see your comment, I read it more power to you. I don't read everything. Cause I get so much information, but I truly do not care. This is a free contest and I give out free picks and I'm as gentle as I can say this. I make more on a Sunday than I do for this entire year doing this show. So I do care about this show. I care about the info I give out, but it's like, you're never going to hurt my feelings. I promise you. So you can, Tear me a new one. I won't care. I won't block you. The only people I block nowadays are people that just plainly lie. Like someone that goes online and says, I sell them picks. Never charge a single penny to a listener of this show. And anyone that says that stuff, they're just plainly lying on the internet for clicks. So yeah, I don't mind. You can tear me apart. People listen to the show. They know how hard I work. But yeah, if you want to bash Chad right now, Chad deserves it. I agree with you people. Attack Chad.
00:04:45
Speaker 2: The thing is, I don't care about getting bashed.
00:04:47
Speaker 1: I like the comments and the feedback to see how we could potentially improve the show. I've been doing this a long time. I've been getting bashed for a long time. I sleep fine when people are mad at us. I don't sleep well when I feel like the show isn't as good as it can be or we can make it better. That's what I'm looking for. I ignore negative feedback. You know, I live in a perpetually rosy, optimistic state. So I only take in the good feedback and think, yeah, it's all true. And the bad feedback, I ignore and be like, they don't know what they're talking about.
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Speaker 3: I take it all in. Like I said, if someone's saying, calling us out on certain stuff, I will take it to heart. I don't know if you played a Tennessee game yet this year in the contest. I take that stuff to heart people. I do hear your hate for us taking these bad teams, but.
00:05:41
Speaker 2: Which could be why we didn't choose Miami last week.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, partially. Could be part of it. Like I said, though, brother, if you come in your chat and you want to put any type of game in on Sunday, I've approved it. I'm literally letting you do whatever you want right now. So I think we'll find it. It's just you're not picking the right five and it's tough. It's really tough picking the five for the contest. So we said it. We should be three and two, three different weeks. All three of those weeks went two and three. So it's like. Like I said, I'm trying not to kill myself on it. Obviously, it looks terrible when Matt Mitchell flashes our record, but it's a hard contest. It's, you know, a normal contest. You pick five games. The lines are set on Tuesday. These lines aren't set until you pick them whatever day that is. And we can't pick Thursdays. So it's it's not an easy contest by any measurement. That's why I love doing this show.
00:06:32
Speaker 2: You know what else hasn't been easy?
00:06:35
Speaker 1: Watching NFL games, because there are so many freaking penalties, it destroys your ability to believe in what you're seeing until you've almost gone to commercial at the end of a play or a drive.
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Speaker 2: Through four weeks.
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Speaker 1: This is from Warren Sharp. Matt Mitchell sent us this last night. Through four weeks, the most flags thrown in a decade. Through four weeks, we have seen the most red zone penalties per game by offenses in history. We have seen the most penalties on third and fourth downs in the second half of games in history. There have been 17 touchdowns so far this year nullified by penalties. Only five in 2025 at this point. 2024, there were only four. We were texting about this last night because.
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Speaker 2: Played in our favor.
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Speaker 1: The Saints had a holding penalty on a drive for the Falcons early in the game where they might have had to kick a field goal. They ended up getting a first down on a hold on a defensive back for the Saints at the goal line. They ended up scoring a touchdown. I actually wonder if at some point coaches have to start accounting for this. Offensively, do you go for it more in fourth down because you think that the referee calling a penalty is increases your chances of conversion beyond just the play itself. Cause it feels like that's an easier place for them to find, to call penalties. That.
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Speaker 3: And I mean, we just had an issue. We had two refs get suspended, right? I think I saw that yesterday and it's all about how they're acted towards players, which I totally agree with. It's like, I see videos, like there's a video yesterday of this guy in the stands, you know, on a Herbert and said, you're, you're, your wife's better than you are or whatever, or like you're just as bad as your wife. Cause she's super hot, whatever it is. And never in this world where a guy go up to six, five, Justin Herbert on the street and talk shit to him about his future wife. Right. So, okay. The fans get away with it because that's the whole point of the sport, right? They're once paying the money, the referees cursing out players or talking tough to players and, Thank God the NFL stepped in because it's like, how delusional are these people?
00:08:56
Speaker 2: So stupid.
00:08:57
Speaker 3: Just because you're wearing a little referee outfit, you think you can talk down and step up and chest NFL players or tell them to F off. I just, I am so happy these refs got suspended again in trouble because like you said, it's the ego on some of these refs. Sometimes they want to be involved and be on camera. And it's like, I just, we need, we need the NFL to step in. Some of these games are unwatchable because like you said, these refs are doing way too much. I mean, that Jaguars game, was unwatchable. Like that Cincinnati game, whatever it was, 10 penalties or 11 penalties in the first half.
00:09:26
Speaker 2: 10 penalties on the Jags in the first half.
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Speaker 3: Yeah. It's, I mean, it's, you can call it.
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Speaker 2: Three touchdowns called off the board. Yeah.
00:09:33
Speaker 3: Like we say all the time, you can call a penalty every time. It's, there's always holding, there's always something going on. There's always guys grabbing. I mean, defenders get tired, especially in the fourth quarter. They're going to grab a little. So it really is tough where I know it's, we try to make this fair as possible. It's all judgment calls, but, At some point, I think the fans are just going to get so restless with it. So, yeah, I think the NFL is definitely going to see a Warren Sharpe's tweet, and hopefully they do something about it. Just too many penalties, too much stoppage, no flow in these games. So, yeah, great point by bringing that up.
00:10:06
Speaker 1: We're going to have some flow today, brother. This is our Tuesday NFL Week 5 show. You're going to hear our Chad's Choice, our Simon Says. Try to narrow down some picks for our free– As you pointed out, free.
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Speaker 2: $ 25, 000.
00:10:23
Speaker 1: Pro football pick'em contest. Go sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top finisher getting paid 10 grand. Don't forget, you can get the show on Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe, like this video where you're at it. Follow us on Insta, TikTok, X, subscribe, Sharper Square. Okay, Thursday Night Football, Dallas, Texas. Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Dallas Cowboys. The resurgent Dallas Cowboys. On Sunday night, we talked about this game. It was at nine and a half. I loved Tampa at nine and a half. The line has moved in their direction. It's at eight and a half at a lot of books. If you look at Polymarket, the line that is sort of highlighted, the trade that is highlighted is seven and a half. Clearly a lot of wise guys came in on Tampa. I think I know why, but do you have thoughts on this?
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Speaker 3: Your reason why is because the Dallas defense is terrible? I don't know. Could be. Yeah, I'll play Dallas here. I just– the Bucs, I mean, they used up a lot of their luck in that game against Green Bay. They're just– they have an undrafted free agent as their quarterback right now. The kid is– he looks exactly as you would assume. This is not– the second coming of Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in the seventh round. This is not Tony Roma rebirth. This is a guy as a rookie has not learned any good habits in mine Baker. And now he's thrown into a really tough position and green Bay. I don't think we consider them a playoff team. Incredible cover. I mean, some people got burned, right? Green Bay technically covered that game. Cause I think they closed as a two and a half point favorite. So, um, Bucs last week were a very sharp side. Pros are all over them at four and a half, all the way down to three. They're back to the well once again, and I get it, right? Dallas' defense is so bad, you assume a backdoor, but this usually feels the type of game that Dallas just blows a team out and wins by 20 or 21. Some people ask me about Survivor. I don't really do Thursday Survivors because Tampa could win this game. It's literally a short week. They have no time to prepare. It's basically... rest your body, come and do a walkthrough on Wednesday, and you have a game Thursday. There's just so limited prep this week. So if you're asking if I had to make a pick on it, I'll pick Dallas. But I don't feel great about it. Chad's reasoning is right. It's like this is such a bad defense that could easily be backdoored. It's just I don't know if Tampa has the guys to backdoor this one. And another week, Todd Bowles kept his job. So it's pretty crazy. Pretty crazy right time right now, Tampa.
00:13:12
Speaker 1: Tampa's defense has also been surprisingly stout. It's mostly against the running game, which is not how you're going to beat Dallas by stopping the running game. But it is interesting to me how much this line has moved from what the opener was at nine and a half. Also, look, I thought that game against the Packers, if you were on the four... Good for you. Jalen Daniels, he threw some bad throws in that game. The Packers are a middling defense. The Cowboys are a really bad defense. So do some of those throws turn into less bad throws because the Cowboys can't defend them in any way that the Packers can? Maybe, but like you said, you're kind of hoping for the backdoor here. Sunday morning, Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars from London, 9.30 a.m. Jags are now six and a half point favorites. Simon, some Philly fans are very upset.
00:14:16
Speaker 2: It's bad coaching again.
00:14:19
Speaker 4: Sirianni blew the game again for the unsmosed times.
00:14:25
Speaker 2: Nick is cute.
00:14:26
Speaker 3: He's angry. He can scream, but what's happening at halftime?
00:14:31
Speaker 2: Are we eating meatball subs? Unsmosed times. Unsmosed times. He's cute, that Sirianni.
00:14:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, he gave me a little PTSD, though. I told you that walk was just an awful, awful experience out of that stadium. I was much more sober than those guys, but I felt the exact same way. Just confused, angry, and it's hard not to blame Sirianni. I mean, they have tons of injuries, but there's just so many good coaches out there, and I've said it from the get-go. I've never viewed him as one of them, but he's always found a way. He's hired the right people, and Yeah, like we talk all the time. If you have a bad draft class and you have another bad draft class and you have bad coaching, it doesn't matter who your team is. You can't overcome all these injuries. So the Eagles have been very lucky. They had great draft classes, but the last two years they haven't. They've had to put these guys as starters and they're struggling. So, yeah, this line was three and a half. We did Sunday night. It's ballooned up now because there's just so many injuries to this Eagle side.
00:15:36
Speaker 4: Yep.
00:15:37
Speaker 3: They're down, I think, six of their 11 starters. The guys who are playing, just like I've talked about, Zach Ertz can't start in this league. He's a 38-year-old man who can't block anymore. Cam Driggins, the guy who was one of their better offensive linemen, how he paid him a ton of money, he's like the 84th graded offensive lineman right now in football. He just can't block anybody. It's just been absolutely brutal for this team. People know what I like to do here. I like to take the favorites in England. I mean, it worked out last. We got very lucky. It feels like on the Colts, but that's just why we do it. And the more the public is behind that side, the better. So we hope come Sunday, there's a ton of money coming in on this Jaguars team. But as you sit here right now, I assume most people are going to bet this Eagles side. It's just a lot of points for this Eagles team. So I'll be patient. I'll take the six and a half. I'm not going to put a lot into it, but yeah, I, I just, We talk all the time about the stats. You're just supposed to blindly take the favorites in England. And I know the Eagles, too, are doing the weird travel plan where they're traveling the day before as well. So, you know, traveling the day before, playing the game at 930 in the morning. I don't know how much of a smart idea that is for Howie. Well, the Jaguars are going to be there for the whole week. So, yeah, it's pretty brutal. This Eagles team is about to come home and face Carolina after their bye week next week, potentially at 2-3. So, yeah, it's rough right now in Philadelphia.
00:17:06
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts got blitzed nonstop on Sunday and.
00:17:13
Speaker 2: Blitzed aggressively by the Bears.
00:17:16
Speaker 1: The Jaguars are not a blitzing team, but they do get really good quarterback pressure even without blitzing. Like you mentioned, this offensive line is struggling. We don't know what the status is with Lane Johnson. He missed last week because of personal reasons. we know Dickerson is still out. We know that Sirianni probably looked really good the past five, six years, however long he's been the coach there, because this offensive line had very little turmoil until the last year and a half. And I think we're seeing that as Sirianni, as the offensive line goes, so goes Sirianni, maybe as much as the ever-changing offensive coordinators. But it's tough to watch. It's really tough to watch. Even if you're not an Eagles fan, it's tough to watch.
00:18:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it's also– they're down– they're two starting running backs. They're down their number one tight end. They're down their number one receiver.
00:18:17
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:18:18
Speaker 3: Take away that from any team, you know, I'd like to see how they're doing playing this year. So it's just– it's bad luck. It's bad luck. They've had a ton of injuries. There's not much you can do to overcome that. And, yeah, maybe if we had Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay– They wouldn't have lost that game against the Rams, but Sirianni is what he is. He's never going to be a top 10, top 5 coach, but he's basically in this weird spot now where it's like, if they lose this game, they lose to Carolina, then they lose to Dallas, and he's sitting there 2-4, 2-5. Do we keep letting him be the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles? He feels like he's cost them two games this season. Like I said, it's dark days around Philadelphia, but There's not much you can do. It's just tons of injuries, and there's still even odds, which is mind-blowing with Dallas to win this division. So even the sportsbooks don't know what to do with the Seagulls team.
00:19:11
Speaker 1: And they're not even in first place in the division. New York Giants are visiting the Washington Commanders. This game is generally Commanders minus three, minus three and a half. Jaden Daniels has ascended to the hopeful category. They're hopeful he'll play. I don't know what to make of this Giants team, to be honest. They were one play away from losing that game against the Cardinals. The final score, they won by 12, but they needed a comeback to win that game. And then Jacoby Brissett throws a pick six on the goal line with no time left.
00:19:58
Speaker 2: So I.
00:20:03
Speaker 1: Get why this Giants team is the underdog. I guess I get why the commanders are the favorites with Jaden Daniels if he's coming back. But this just feels like a weird game. I don't really have a feel for either of these teams right now.
00:20:19
Speaker 3: Then trust the number. Are the sportsbooks your friends? Are they giving you an easy plus three on the Giants team against a wounded Jaden Daniels and this bad commanders team coming back from England? It's a very fishy line. So I'm right there with you. I don't get this line at all. I'm just going to bet the commanders because it's, My model doesn't have him as a three-and-a-half-point favorite better than this Giants team, but the books do, and it's such a public side in the Giants. The public's going to be hammering this Giants side compared to this Commander side because right now we don't know if Gene Daniels is going to play. So I'll stay with the books as we sit here on Tuesday, but I'm like you. If I can avoid and not bet this game this week, I'll be happy.
00:20:57
Speaker 2: Let's not do it. We don't have to do it. Simon. Simon.
00:21:01
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings are visiting the New Orleans Saints. We discussed this game on Sunday night when it was at two. What would you like to say about this game?
00:21:16
Speaker 3: Simon says, give me the Saints plus two and a half at Polymarket.
00:21:20
Speaker 1: Simon says, presented by Polymarket, the New Orleans Saints currently trading at 52% at two and a half. It's actually... When we talked about it on Sunday, it moved down to one and a half. It's back to two, two and a half at the prediction markets. Last night was an ugly night on defense against the dynamic playmaker in Bijan. And an ugly night for Tyler Schach against a very good defense in the Falcons. Even Schach said after the game, he understood why fans were booing. Definitely seeing professionals booing. taking the Saints here. I worry it's not a great spot for the Saints, but it feels like a good number for the Saints.
00:22:09
Speaker 3: I mean, they just get blown out on primetime. I don't know if it gets much better than a spot than this. They're facing the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings, which could easily be 4-0 against the spread as well if they had walked in that touchdown of the game. So it just feels like it's two opposite sides or one's peak offense The other one, people just, they just got burned last night. I mean, the Saints, because of the Steve Gleason night, it was that whole remembering Katrina and everything like that, which, you know, you felt the energy at the start of the game. But the Falcons, the reason we love them, or I especially love them so much, is just the books hadn't caught up to the Pennix number, right? Pennix is such a better facilitator for that offense than they've had in the past quarterbacks. I believe it's the most points they scored last night since Matt Ryan in Super Bowl run in 2016. So, It's been a long time since you've seen a Falcons offense do what they did. And, I mean, they felt like they left points on the board. Like, they really were dominating that game in every way. So, this Saints team just feels like a nice buy-low spot where they're not as bad as they looked last night. That was a brutal matchup for them. On the flip side, I don't think Kyler Murray is going to be able to attack that secondary the same way Penix was, right? Now, Justin Jefferson could be back, which that would obviously be a huge upgrade to Minnesota. And maybe we get another bump because Olave might be out now. I mean, people saw– They still had him in the final two minutes of a blowout game. Don't know why. Took a bad shot to his knee. So we don't know yet what might be happening with Olave. But the Saints team just is not as bad as it looked. And it just feels like it's going to be too overreacted by people in the general public. That game, to me, just felt like a trap game. That was always going to be an Atlanta win. Saints were walking right into it. They were due for that type of game where I think they had coverage three straight weeks. And they had really played tight in all those second halves. I mean... They kept saying on TV, well, this is a second-half team. It's like, well, you can't be a second-half team. It doesn't matter if you're down by 21, and your defense can't stop the run. So this is really one of those weeks where it's like maybe they get off on Tuesday, but there is no, oh, we'll see you guys Thursday. No, they're back in there working. They just got embarrassed. So you expect a bounce back from the Saints team. This is the type of game that feels like the size of their season. Minnesota, like we've talked about, they're a good team, but they're eventually going to get caught here, and the books are going to catch up to them. They're just not going to keep giving away. free money on this Vikings team. So yeah, I'm hoping this keeps going up. Honestly, I know I'm telling people to take it through and a half here. It's really just a case of professionals coming to hit this one because it's just another spot. The public will be all over the Vikings and I'll just be pros here on the Saints team who just looked so bad the night before. So that's what I'm taking a position now just in case this number does move.
00:24:39
Speaker 2: I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best way to trade in sports.
00:24:47
Speaker 1: In the past, If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Houston Texans 0-4 visiting the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are seven-point underdogs. In all four of the games so far, Simon, the Texans have had basically better offensive success rates than their opponents, but their running game is terrible. When they're losing games, it's because their defense is fading.
00:26:14
Speaker 2: We saw it.
00:26:15
Speaker 1: Last week against the Cowboys. We saw it the week before against the Colts. We saw it in week one against the Bills. Titans had a miracle backdoor cover in a game Lamar Jackson did not play in the second half. Seven points is a lot on the road when the Titans have shown no reason to stop playing, no matter how badly they're losing, which is why In a lot of places, this line has moved to 6.5. And at prediction markets, it's pretty much stabilized at 6.5 versus 7.5.
00:26:50
Speaker 2: So you're.
00:26:53
Speaker 3: Going to love the Texans. This just feels like an absolute spot. Go all in on the Texans. They should win this 30-3. We've seen this movie before, right? Texans 0-3, 0-4 now. Really tough start to the schedule. I mean... Come on, Texans. If you don't blow this team out, yes, it really is all over. There's no coming back. If they win this game by three, this will not change my view on them in any way. Because right now, I think we're all just– this is rock bottom. We're so down on them. Yes. I have to bet on here. I get it, people. You hate it. But this is the exact moment this team should be waking up here where it's just– you take out all these frustrations these past couple of weeks on this Titans team, which just had their own miracle backdoor cover against the team that if Lamar played highly unlikely, they find a way to backdoor that because they had zero points of ribbons that second half. So another line, I'm interested what the public does with it. Like I'm hoping the public and the professionals come in on the Titans and keep bumping this Texas number down. Like I'll take the six and a half. I'm hoping it gets to five and a half. That's such a key number. So yeah, it's, It's gross, but this is what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to back the Texans here. This is the perfect thing. They're on the road, so they don't have their own fans billing them, yelling at them. Hostile environment in Tennessee, 0-4, back against the wall. If you're a motivator of men, which I think their head coach is, it's such an easy spot to get that defense up and say, this kid might have been one of the worst quarterbacks in football. We cannot let him cross the 50. So I look at Zimmer, it's like they should win by 20. The Texans should. absolutely blow out this Tennessee team. It's going to be a fun number to follow along all week. I'll throw a small bet right now on the 6.5. I'm not going to invest heavily into it just in case professionals and public come on the Titans. I'll get some free points here. Another game I'll just be patient on. It's all Texans for me, though, in this game.
00:28:55
Speaker 1: When I watch C.J. Stroud, he's not the reason they're losing these games. It's really the defense. I feel like That's not the expectation we had.
00:29:08
Speaker 3: It's all on Dika. It's all on Dika. Dika Ryan's just– I can't get over how bad of a coaching job he's done. How is this defense so unprepared, Chad? We talked coming into the year. They had all 11 starters returning. It doesn't make– it does not make any sense that Dika Ryan can't get this team right.
00:29:24
Speaker 2: They're unprepared at the end of games too.
00:29:27
Speaker 1: And by the way, you want to talk about penalties, the Texans I think had two penalties on the same drive on fourth down inside the five-yard line as a defensive unit against the Cowboys on Sunday.
00:29:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, CJ's actually been pretty good. He hasn't been the anchor that he had been the past couple years.
00:29:50
Speaker 1: If the Texans' defense could actually level up, the team could be a juggernaut. They're so freaking close. Would you bet the Texans to make the playoffs right now?
00:30:02
Speaker 3: I wouldn't just because the AFC to me is better this year than it was last year. Like they're, they're fighting now with New England and the Raiders for that last spot in Denver. Like those are all teams that you could say, well, they're in the, they're in the AFC South. It should be, it should be easier for them as the season goes along. I think the culture can be a better season goes along. Like I think, You know, we keep seeing the Jags. They're better than people give them respect for. So I don't think their division's a layup like it was in the past. And, yeah, it's– I know it's going to be like, oh, plus 200, something crazy like that for them to make the playoffs right now because they are 0-4. So I get it. I just– yeah, I can't make that bet.
00:30:45
Speaker 2: Cincinnati at Miami.
00:30:46
Speaker 1: Miami's a seven-and-a-half point underdog at home. We don't know the status of Jamar Chase with his concussion.
00:30:54
Speaker 2: He's day-to-day.
00:30:55
Speaker 1: We don't know the status of T. Higgins, who was listed as day-to-day with an abductor. We do know that we think the reason the Bengals lost and have lost this year is Joe Burrow. We do know that we have liked Miami multiple times the past couple of weeks when they started out as double-digit dogs.
00:31:14
Speaker 2: It paid off for us once.
00:31:17
Speaker 1: At seven and a half, this feels a little bit like it's on the border for me because this could also feel like If you've wanted a bite of Miami, you've gotten to take your bite. And Cincinnati, maybe if Cincinnati wins this past week, this game is closer to eight and a half or nine. So you might be getting a little bit of value on Cincinnati in a game they got to get right. Similar to the Texans. They got to get this right, even though they're two and two. They need to play like a team that is a contender for the Super Bowl right now. Do they do that against... the Miami dolphins.
00:31:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a hard one. Cause I think we both agree. We want to take Miami here with the hook, but, um, it's another line where we've, we've talked like Cincinnati. If they put it together, they should steamroll this Miami team. They're just, they have so much more talent across the board, but you're right. Like without the chase and T Higgins news, I can't sit here on Tuesday and tell people to blindly bet this one. If those guys are hampered or out for this game. Yeah. We'll, we'll just take Miami with the points. Right. And you expect, um, them to keep this type of game close. But this is another game where it's like, you know, Cincinnati, two straight losses. If Joe Burrow gets right, this is the perfect game to get right for him. So really, really interesting what this number does this week. Cause I do want to be on Cincinnati, but not so much at this number. Maybe I can just hedge it and just take him in survivor pool and let that be my stress this week and stop worrying about Joe Burrow in the fourth quarter. having to cover these numbers, but yeah, really, really smart number to me by the books. Like they know exactly what they're doing here, where seven and a half keeps me away from the Bengals and tempts me more to the dolphins more than anything else. So I'll just try to be patient. A couple of books have touched seven. So maybe that's, this is your time to get in. And we've talked about that teaser with the bills. If you want to tease Houston now with the Bengals, like you have a couple of easy options this week to tease teams down above below key numbers. And the Bengals is one of them right now. So, Would we be shocked if the Bengals lost this game to the Dolphins? No, just because the vibes are just so bad right now with the Bengals. But we keep saying, like, the talent level, they should blow this Dolphins team out. It's just night and day, the difference.
00:33:38
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is becoming one of those guys this year where you're more nervous when he has the ball than you are. And you need something to happen in your favor. than you are when you've bet against him.
00:33:55
Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Does that make sense?
00:33:58
Speaker 3: Well, Joe's great with a lead. I think it was Cowherd. Cowherd had this amazing stat, I believe. I heard him read that. If there's eight minutes left in the game and Joe Burrow's trailing in that game, he is 1-38 straight up in that exact scenario. 1-38 in his career. Now, you know, some of that's not true because he's tied those games in his defense obviously because of the field goal or the touchdown at the end of the game. Yes, we know it's a team game, but that is a damning stat. That just shows what Chad just said, that we're deader than dead if Joe Burrow has the ball and we're down by a couple points at the end of the game. So that's something that needs to weigh in people's mind now. I was looking to take props. I mean, I was one of the first to it, a bashing Joe Burrow. Everyone had this guy as a top three, top five guy because he was so incredible in college and then went to the Super Bowl in his year two. We've had three years now of– below average quarterback play. And Joe beats up bad teams, but he struggles against playoff teams. So this is a bad team. This is exactly who Joe Burrow should be beating up. So that's why I think both of us are just a little gunshot because he burned us so bad last week. But I think we both know we're supposed to play the Bengals here. But it's like, man, without T. Higgins and Chase, it's like, do I really want to invest in Joe Burrow as a seven and a half point favorite without those guys? I really can't do that right now.
00:35:13
Speaker 2: No, no, you do not.
00:35:16
Speaker 1: Neither of us want to do that. Cleveland is visiting the New York Jets. The Jets are, what is that number? Two-point favorites right now. The Browns have the potential this week to feel like a massive, massive, massive public dog.
00:35:34
Speaker 2: The vibes are so good for the Browns right now.
00:35:40
Speaker 1: Beating up on the Panthers two weeks ago, that dramatic win against the Steelers. They're 3-1. Deshaun Watson is playing like it's 2018. He's actually throwing the ball downfield. He's making accurate throws at the goal line. He's actually playing like a legitimate quarterback right now. The New York Jets just had the ball for 18 minutes on offense in a game. It was such a boring game. And it's weird. You know, I've got like four different text chains about the Bears that go on on Sundays. And it was such a weird game where the Bears were dominating, dominating, dominating, but not pulling away. You know, they had some issues against the goal line and on the goal line and just weren't scoring, even though they were dominating. The text chains were so quiet because there was like nothing dramatic.
00:36:39
Speaker 2: To talk about.
00:36:42
Speaker 1: It just felt like a very quietly dominant game. And does that make this game a little bit lower for the Jets than it should be?
00:36:53
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, you won by double digits. What do you want your guys to be saying? It's like you said, it was a dominant win.
00:36:58
Speaker 1: It was a dominant win, but it could have been, listen, we're greedy now. It could have been more dominant. It could have been 30 to six.
00:37:07
Speaker 3: Yeah. I just, I look at this number and we said it Sunday night. It's like, They're begging you to take the Browns. So, interesting what the professional is doing here with this one. I'm hoping it's on the Jets because if it's not, if we're hearing it's like, all right, all the pros are on the Browns as well. Maybe I could be talking to the Browns, but this just felt like, you know, coming to the season, this felt like a Jets spot where the Browns, not that I would think that Sean Watson would be playing at this high of a level right now, but I just knew this would potentially be the peak of the Browns season, right? I talk all the time. I always look for that Thursday night Browns game, and I look to fade them off of that potential win on that Thursday night. And I saw this number. I think it might have been this exact same number in the summer, which is very rare. The books don't adjust, especially the fact that Watson's played so well. I mean, you can say Penix has been the most shocking quarterback this season, what he's done for the Atlanta Falcons. team number two has got to be Deshaun Watson like the fact that this Browns team is three and one it's yeah they've played great defense and they've drafted really well but you talk about time you need a quarterback in this league you need a guy who can find ways to win games and him having multiple fourth quarter drives and wins and you know putting up points it's just it really is crazy like I had high hopes for Deshaun Watson coming this season on the football field obviously we talked not a good person off the field but You just expected him fully healthy to bounce back. We knew the talent level was there. Could he mentally get right? I mean, I can't believe how it's worked out for this Browns team. So, if they're for real, if they're a playoff team, yeah, they're going and they smash this Jets team. And we've talked, like, this Jets team, the book is out and it's very simple how to beat Geno. You just send five. You just blitz, blitz, blitz, blitz, blitz. If he can find the open guy and burn you every now and then, okay. Like, that's... it's fewer farm between what Gino feels like nowadays where it's like, even in that bears game, watching the bears game, he just so many three and out so many, so many times he just looks so totally disinterested. And I mean, Jad even talking about the dead bears defenders joking about that was the easiest game they've ever played in. Like they don't need to rest their body. The guy said it's the first time it is enough for Curry. He's not going to the training room, getting a massage after a game. because he is not sore in any way like that's that is damning to this Jets team especially offensively that they just they were not hitting hard at all so Browns extended rest playing against a Jets defense that you know played a ton of snaps got what do we say it was 55 carries by the Bears defense running the ball I mean the Jets defense must be just absolutely in torture chamber this week. Their bodies must be broken. So yeah, really interesting line to see what the public does this one. Cause it's, I really wanted to take the Browns, but we know these traps, we see what the books are doing here. So I'm going to wait and see what the shops and the professionals do with this number. But yeah, it feels like it's either Jets or nothing for us here.
00:40:06
Speaker 2: Couldn't agree more. I'm so glad to hear you say that.
00:40:10
Speaker 1: Cause I know on Sunday night we had talked about the Browns potentially be in a spot. And now it just feels like something's misaligned here. And we'd be walking into our old friend, the Hornet's Nest, if we just blindly went after the Cleveland Browns. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a two and a half point home favorite. You just mentioned the Colts. I don't have great read on this game other than my instinct says I want to be on the Colts as home underdogs here. I just have, as we did heading into this past weekend, and we did this a couple of weekends ago too, my feeling is that Shane Steichen is a really good coach and that this team is on the ascent. Like they were figuring some things out. They had a rough start to the year, but it started to click with the Texans. It got a little bit better last week with the commanders, even though they went against a third string quarterback. I just think this team is getting better and better. And I don't think the Steelers are getting better and better. I think the Steelers are a pretty inconsistent team that is still completely unsure of who their talent is and how they're going to win games.
00:41:23
Speaker 3: This game is in Pittsburgh. Yeah. You said Colts at home.
00:41:27
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I meant Indy at Pittsburgh.
00:41:31
Speaker 3: Let's say Colts team that just like the Eagles next week, they're skipping the bye week after international game. and now playing a team on extended rest. I mean, schedule makers, it's terrible. Like, how are you going to put the Colts at such a disadvantage? Steelers have extra rest, and the Colts have extended travel. I mean, the Eagles have the same thing. The Panthers are on a bye this week. The Eagles come back from England next week, and they play the Panthers. I don't get the schedule makers doing these type of games. I know they don't care. They're trying to just fit it right, and they're under so much different stuff. Everything's connected in a different way, but How can you not say this is such a huge disadvantage for this Colts team? It really is. That was the first thing that popped out to me so much. They were down 6-0, and Washington had the ball when Marietta got hurt. That was not going their way in any way. That totally flipped that game because when we saw that kid came out there, he looked totally lost, that third stringer. It's not his fault either. The NFL is impossible, and you're taking a guy who's had maybe five to 10 reps total with the first team offense. He just looked totally lost. So I, I surprisingly like Pittsburgh here, but I'm like, yo, I'm going to be patient here and wait because it's just, I think the pros in the public will take the information, the same information I have, which is just based off rest alone. This is such a huge advantage for the Steelers team. But if you do like the Steelers, I take it now. Cause I could just, I could see this start bumping up to three or this Colts team. It's just, Such a brutal, disadvantaged spot for them. Their one big advantage here is the Steelers have struggled against the run. And they have Jonathan Taylor. Obviously, they're going to be able to run the ball on the Steelers team. But you look at the secondary of this Colts team, they don't match up well at all against Aaron Rodgers in this offense of Pittsburgh. We've seen Pittsburgh, especially the last two weeks, they can push the ball through the air. They did against Cincy. They did against the Browns. We've seen McCarthy's offense has gotten better, so props to him. But yeah, very, very weird spot for this Colts team to put in here with all this travel.
00:43:39
Speaker 2: Interesting. I thought you'd be more.
00:43:44
Speaker 1: Into the Colts, but you make a good point about the rest, which I hadn't thought of. I just thought you'd be more into the Colts as like a team that's on the upswing.
00:43:56
Speaker 3: Are they on the upswing or they've had the right circumstances where like the Houston, I think we both agree. They should have probably covered that game potentially even won it against them. Like they had opportunities, but like we talked about D'Amico, he just is struggling right now. And then once again, the commanders, the commanders were all over them in that game. And then it totally flipped when Mariota went out. So I think this Colts team has been very fortunate where I watched Daniel Jones in these games and he still doesn't look right. I don't know if you feel the same way, but yeah, still doesn't look right. And, He doesn't have weapons on the outside. He's just throwing to these no-name receivers. Josh Downs went down in that game. It's tough right now for this Colts team where I think Steelers are going to have the same plan I would have, which is you just put all the guys in the box and let Daniel Jones beat you with Keenan Allen or whoever else they're throwing out there right now. It's a bad spot, it feels like, for this Colts team.
00:44:46
Speaker 4: All right.
00:44:46
Speaker 1: Special programming note. Everyone knows we are the world's most literate sports betting podcast.
00:44:52
Speaker 2: We are releasing.
00:44:53
Speaker 1: A bonus episode tomorrow. We've got a bunch of people who have books coming out. Our old buddy Seth Wickersham has a new book out. Two sports media legends, John Kozner, Ed Desser, also have a book coming out all about the sports media business. So we did a show with them just talking about books. All of them have some great stories because as everyone knows, I have a book coming out in January called The Number. Thrilling deep dive into the high stakes world of sports betting and prediction markets. Sweet spot for anyone listening to this podcast. I did offer last week, anyone who pre-orders 10 copies, I will either Zoom with your group or come visit you. Be like the Norton family in Atlanta. They sent me an email. They ordered 10 books. They promised, if I come, you'll love this, Matt Mitchell. You'll love this, Simon. If I come down to Atlanta, They will get a 4.45 dinner reservation. Even though it'll be at a steakhouse, they promise I can have seeds and lettuce.
00:46:04
Speaker 2: Can't wait to get there.
00:46:06
Speaker 1: Join the fun. Email sharp or square at thevolume.com with your proof of purchase. Let's geek out together in a book club.
00:46:16
Speaker 2: Buy my book.
00:46:18
Speaker 3: Buy my book.
00:46:20
Speaker 2: Buy my book. Our listeners. God love them. Las Vegas at New England.
00:46:31
Speaker 1: New England is a three and a half point favorite right now. Raiders are a massive public dog. Even on the prediction markets, Simon, it's much more expensive to buy the Raiders side than it is to buy the Patriots side. Are we walking into it if we go all in on the Raiders here?
00:46:55
Speaker 3: I don't know if we're walking into it because they have just, they keep outperforming the books expectations, right? I mean, the last week, the number was four and a half and it landed on three. So it's just another week where it's like, the books aren't just off by half a point. I mean, it's a full point and a half. And yeah, it came down to two pointer, but it wasn't like the spread was five or five and a half, right? So it's, especially when you look at the data of the teams that are potentially frauds, right? I mean, I know our old colleague, Dr. Nick puts out the luck rankings, which is kind of the same thing. And right now, the number one team, biggest fraud team for most people projection out are the Giants. Number two, the Browns. Number three, Minnesota Vikings. Number four, the Raiders. So it's not shocking that we're this week. It feels like we should be on the opposite side of all four of those teams I just listed. We know it's going to get caught up to them eventually. All the bricks that keep going their way. NFL doesn't work that way. I mean, unless you're Patrick Mahomes and the chiefs, like usually the breaks don't break for you every year. And we saw last year, right? That caught up to the chiefs. They went from being the year before they were like 11 and two and one score games to, they were like two and 10 and one score games. So you see the NFL, it just, it does that. It just, eventually your luck catches up to you. So Raiders, we've talked how good of a team they've been. And you go back and you watch Kirk. Yes. Kirk has been extremely lucky. Like, Back foot throws 25 yards downfield, hitting guys who are covered tight, like hands in their face. But Kirk's putting it right on the money, right into the bucket. So this one's really tough. We talked a little bit about Sunday night because I couldn't believe this is what the books opened it. Because to me, if they opened it at three, they would get very balanced, good action. Like people would be taking the Patriots. But at minus three and a half, who's betting the Patriots here? I just– As much as they did win that game against the Bills, we talked, the Bills beat themselves, it feels like, in many ways in that game. So, and all that third down luck. I mean, Drake May, out of his mind, third and 10s, third and 11s, Matt Collins, whoever, downfield, making plays.
00:49:04
Speaker 1: By the way, Matt Collins, the guy who replaced Matt Collins, making a one-handed catch.
00:49:09
Speaker 2: In the end zone.
00:49:11
Speaker 3: Yeah. So... It is tough where it's like, I want to fade the Patriots, but we mean you've done this long enough the books are telling us what to do here so i guess i'll take the patriots or pass on this one but i don't feel good about it i just i love this raiders team so much i believe so much in them it's i feel like i'm betraying my girlfriend here it's like i feel like we're supposed to take the raiders but it just we we see all the warning signs flash right now where it's like you said this is gonna be the most public dog by far this week them and the browns are going to be beloved by the public this week. Two road dogs.
00:49:42
Speaker 1: Clint Kubiak at halftime of that Raiders-Chiefs game said, we're going to win this game. I felt like he was talking to me, honest to God. Like we needed the win. We needed the Raiders to play well in that game. And I felt like he was truly channeling his energy and directing it to me. I love the way he has this team believing. I love the way he is scheming up plays for Kirk Cousins. I do think that's giving Kirk so much more confidence when he is going and being called on to make the plays. Because like you said, maybe you're thinking of the same play I am, but they had a replay of a throw that he made. His guy was not open and he just put it directly, not even on his hands, on his fingertips.
00:50:32
Speaker 2: If you're watching on YouTube right now, you can see like.
00:50:36
Speaker 1: This is my left hand is the defensive back's hand. My right hand is the receiver's hand. Like there was an inch of room there and he nailed it. He was rolling left and throwing across his body into triple coverage. And like, I think Clint has him believing that he is Kirk Cousins of five years ago. So it's hard to bet against that. I get why the public is coming in on it. And the Patriots have given us no reason to believe in them other than the fact that they had a miracle play by a, you know, a player off the practice squad.
00:51:10
Speaker 2: That's really it. That's what we're betting. That's that.
00:51:13
Speaker 1: And like, at some point the party's got to end for the Raiders, we assume, but Jesus, I don't want to bet against the Raiders. And I know we can't bet on the Raiders.
00:51:22
Speaker 3: And I was shocked. I don't know if you saw Vrabel, basically CJ Garden Johnson was said that like that guy Chisholm had a once in a lifetime catch and was talking smack about him. And Vrabel went right back and was like, listen, This is a guy that knows plenty about practice squads. He's been on whatever it was, four teams in eight years.
00:51:39
Speaker 2: I didn't see that.
00:51:41
Speaker 3: Which, yeah, irrespective of Rabel, I mean, he's opening himself up to just be absolutely crushed. It's like, dude, you cheated on your wife for eight years. Who are you to say anything about anybody in any situation right now? So good for Rabel not to change who he is because he knows he's the easiest, most open target in the world right now for talking shit. So I love that one-liner right back at CJ from Rabel, which is– Braywell should do right. Get your guys backs. But as soon as I heard that joke, I was like, my God, this guy is truly in a bubble because it's like, you just, he's in a weird spot where he can just can't be making it. He's the easiest guy ever to make fun of right now. So yeah, I really cannot wait for that next rematch of Bill's Patriots. Cause I mean, you had Patriots players spitting on the ground as they were leaving saying F you to that new stadium. And just, I just love divisional games. It's the best. Like these guys literally hate each other. So, Uh, yeah, like we said, this feels like we're supposed to take a Patriots here. We, we love the Raiders. So it just, we feel torn. This is truly a torn, torn pick right here. We know we're supposed to do, but we love the Raiders.
00:52:44
Speaker 1: Well, we got three divisional games coming up right now. Chicago at Green Bay, Green Bay is a two and a half point underdog at home. This is the world we live in right now. Tyson Bajent is nearly a field goal favorite on the road in the biggest rivalry in all of professional football. We know this isn't really about Tyson Pagin. We know this is about fans believing that anyone Ben Johnson puts under center can win.
00:53:10
Speaker 2: And cover because that is what keeps happening.
00:53:14
Speaker 1: Can we believe, Simon, have we reached peak inflation and hype on the Chicago Bears?
00:53:25
Speaker 3: And this is not the biggest rivalry. This is the oldest rivalry, Chad. The biggest rivalry would be the Eagles-Cowboys, which I believe put up like 40 million views their opening game last year. So put a little respect on their true biggest rivalry. No, I'm kidding. But it's an all-timer, right? I'd have to go through my notes, but I'm almost positive I had it written down, where the last time you guys were favored in Lambeau. 2006. Yes. And you guys won, like, 30-0. Yeah. So are the books telling us what to do once again last week? I know you were a little gun-shy last week on your Bears team against the Jets, but I just joked with you. It's like this is coaching male practice. I mean, I couldn't get over the advantage you guys had coaching-wise with Ben Johnson, and it's not the same obviously with LaFleur. LaFleur is a great coach here, but this is a line where I couldn't believe it. Sunday night we were sitting there. It's one and a half, and it's like, why would this number not be three? Like, Green Bay is a terrible team right now. They're undisciplined. Without Jordan Love, they would not have won a game this year. Now, they're sitting here 2-2 because of him. Like, he's been that great and that high level of a caliber in his quarterback position. But team-wise, overall, I mean, they're just– they're playing so well together, the Bears. Like, they just– they found something in that Caleb injury against the Vikings. Like, that loss totally flipped something with this team where now we've had two straight weeks of– you know, pretty dominant back to their core, who they are running the ball, right? They kind of lost there against Minnesota where they're, in my opinion, just throwing the ball too much where it's like the run was working. Like Ben got away from it. The last two weeks, he got right back to it against Philadelphia, then against the Jets. It's another team in Green Bay that's like, you know, down so many guys on the offensive line. They got away with it last week against Tampa because Tampa doesn't really have much of a pass rush, but you expect here in Chicago, that's the one really good thing they have defensively is they can get a pass rush overall. If it's still two and a half at your shop, I'm still going to put a bet here on this Bears team because I still think there's potential of Caleb coming back here. If Caleb does come back here, I can easily see this running right back up to three and a half, three. Two and a half right now, Pauly Marquette, I'll take that number. Obviously, I still wish it was one and a half, but Once it starts getting up to 3, 3.5, and if it is the backup quarterback, I might have to take a position on Green Bay. I really don't want to. People can tell. I'm just super down on Green Bay. It was like last week. I was just so much happier to have a 3.5 on Tampa than I was to have a 2.5 on Green Bay because I just kept thinking Green Bay is going to blow this game. Now, we talked. That rookie, he gave it away to Green Bay. He threw bad picks. They just couldn't get it together. Whatever it was, they won 17-14 against a really bad Tampa team. This is not a bad team in the Bears, so... Books are telling themselves a little bit. Another line where it's like they opened a bad number, one and a half. The pros came in and just absolutely thrashed this one. Now it's up to two and a half, three. I'm still going to take a position on two and a half, but it's another number I think later in the week, maybe I'll be more in love with it. I sit here right now, it just feels way too easy. It's who's still backing this Green Bay team? They are so injured and they are so bad. I don't get how you're going to back them, especially after a week they just won and covered. This line does not make sense to me in any way.
00:56:47
Speaker 1: They also, by the way, they lost another player, Edruin Cooper, on the defensive side of the ball towards Achilles on.
00:56:55
Speaker 3: Sunday.
00:56:56
Speaker 1: So it's just one more player who's going to be out for the Packers.
00:57:03
Speaker 3: All right.
00:57:04
Speaker 1: Denver at the Los Angeles Chargers. I nearly made this Chad's choice. The Chargers are three and a half point home underdogs. It's really not as much of an edge as you'd think statistically. four home underdogs who are in this winless position. But, and Sean Payton has a history of really having his offense blow up when we get into October. He has said in the past, the first month of the year, you're figuring out who your team is and as Against the Spread record shows, his teams get much, much better when you get into October and beyond. Of course, the challenge is, Davis Webb is calling the plays. The challenge is Bo Nix is not nearly as good on the road. So I want to be on the chargers here. My concern is that Rashawn Slater, injured, probably not playing in this game. Joe Alt, injured in the last game, day-to-day right now. Lad McConkie left the game early. No reports yet on whether or not he'll be playing. Derwin James, likely out in this game. So, I really want to be on the chargers here. I think I am going to be, forget it. I'm on the chargers in this game, but I'm doing it because of the spot and because it's the hook. And because I think that the Broncos are a little bit inflated because they're the Broncos, but more so because the chargers have been so bad.
00:58:40
Speaker 3: Yeah. This is another game that where they're, they're begging you to take the chargers. So I'm, I think we're on opposite sides here. It's like I'm on the Broncos. And the fact that all these injuries are even more so popping up for the Chargers makes me even more want to be on this Denver team. Because the Chargers, as bad as they've looked, they've had two back-to-back really close games. They fought tooth and nail to win, and they fell short. And they had so many things. go right in both those games for them, and they still couldn't get the covers. I mean, I think they pushed last week, and they didn't cover the week before. It's just the books are giving them as many points as they possibly can. This line in August, I had to go back to my notes. I'm most positive it was minus four on the Chargers or minus three and a half.
00:59:28
Speaker 2: Jesus Christ.
00:59:30
Speaker 3: And you would say that.
00:59:31
Speaker 2: Would make sense. That would make sense.
00:59:32
Speaker 4: Right.
00:59:32
Speaker 1: Because the Chargers had the second shortest odds to win the division. And the Broncos had the third and it was a home game. So it would totally make sense that they're three, three and a half at least.
00:59:42
Speaker 3: And like you said, it's a bad spot for the Chargers since the Broncos since they just played the 49ers. And now they're on the road again playing the Chargers like that's that is really tough. But I don't know what you're backing here in the Chargers other than a number. You're simply blindly betting the number and saying, well, they can't go over five against the spread. I bet you they can. That's why I'm taking a position on Denver. I don't think the books have caught up to it with the injuries and Herbert, whoever we envision him being these last couple of years.
01:00:10
Speaker 2: He's not him.
01:00:12
Speaker 3: No. And anyway, like he's, he's has habits right now that he never had in the past. His footwork, it looks like he's totally forgot what he learned in his whole career. He's got happy feet now because of the hits he's taken and all this other stuff. So It's another number I don't have to deal with because it's so chalky, so public taking Denver here. But it's like, you're telling me you're getting that Denver defensive line against a front five that could be four backups now? And if Alt misses, it'll be all five will be backups. And they're already on their third string center. So it's just, it keeps piling up. I feel so bad for the Chargers. It's like, you know, they're not getting any type of breaks in any of these games. They've been fighting hard these last couple weeks, but it's like, you know, this is a horrible, horrible spot for them to be playing against a Denver team that's coming off a bad loss. Even when you talk to those guys in the locker room, even they were more upset than I was about that whole– it was that guy's forearm down in that block and how that flipped the game. So, I mean, you got Sean Payton getting cursed off by ex-players on the field when he's getting in the handshake. I don't know if you saw that. Like, he just– yeah. Like, he just– you expect them to take all that rage out on this Chargers team that's just beaten down, and this has nothing left. So I can already tell you the pros will be on the Chargers. Like Chad said, it's a home divisional dog. They're facing 0-5, and they're going to be facing 0-5 against the spread. So I don't knock you for taking a position here. I just can't tell our listeners to take this Chargers team. Maybe I'll get there on next show, have some pros calling, because I haven't bet this game yet, but As I say right now, it just feels like everything points to this Broncos team. Maybe we'll take a position in Chargers' first half and try to be sneaky about it where it's like, well, we've seen the Broncos be so bad in the first half. Maybe that's the play. But I just– I have a hard time thinking we can have three straight weeks of this Chargers team backdooring because that's what you're hoping on here. You're really– you know they're charging. You're going to probably lose this game. You're just praying for a backdoor with the hook.
01:02:15
Speaker 2: What does your model have it at right now?
01:02:19
Speaker 3: Honestly, it's a Chargers number. I got it at two and a half. That's what I'm saying. I don't think we've accounted for it. People don't get it. That's a huge adjustment. That's moving at five to six points from what I had in the preseason. It's really tough. The model is telling you what to do. The pros are telling you what to do. It's like, man, I can't get over all these injuries this team has had. We've seen Herbert in the past. He's overcome these injuries. He's been great as a big dog, but This year is a big dog. He hasn't covered yet. So it's like you have to kind of throw those old numbers out. They just don't really go with what this team is this year.
01:02:56
Speaker 1: Well, the other game that is the divisional rivalry is San Francisco visiting Seattle. You pinpointed the game on Sunday night. It was a two and a half. And then Sunday night, it very quickly moved to three and to three and a half in some spots. It's now leveled off. It's mostly three.
01:03:16
Speaker 2: There actually are some two and a halves out there.
01:03:20
Speaker 1: This is going to be Chad's choice. I think this is a similar matchup that we're talking about with the Broncos, right? A really good defense in Seattle, a coach who we believe in, a quarterback we think is suspect. And I think Kyle Juszczyk being out has a huge impact on the Niners' offense. He does a lot of stuff with motion. that I think is important to what the Niners try to do. It's why they have a fullback that plays as often as he does. But now we're getting the Niners who probably, as you just pointed out, I think they got away with one against the Broncos. Like that fumble changed everything in the game. And if Seattle can do to the Niners with Mike Evans, who's still playing with broken ribs and still no Nick Bosa, what the Broncos did.
01:04:14
Speaker 2: Only now they're doing it at home. I got it back. The Seahawks is a short home favorite.
01:04:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I've– you're talking about use check. I've talked to people all the time within the NFL team, scouts, and people working front office, and I say a nod to all these people. They need to– really, the NFL needs to step in and bring back tackling and practice because– I get it. There's sometimes these guys to take them down. They have to go at the knees and the thighs. That's where they're aiming for the tackle, but they're not wrapping up. They're just, they're just going and throwing their whole body at these people's lower bodies. And that's how you end careers, right? Like that shot to his knee. Now it's not out for the season. He didn't tear anything, but it's like, you saw his leg bend back the other way. And I get it. These guys are flying a mile a minute, but it's just like rugby, not that much different of a sport, but they took away that there, in fact, there's no helmet. make sure these guys tackle a certain way. And I feel like they need to bring that to the NFL where there's so many less injuries in rugby. I swear there are no pads. I don't feel like people realize how insane this is. They're playing the same, maybe not as fast, but they're going pretty damn fast and hitting pretty damn hard. But they don't have the same lower body injuries, right? And they don't have concussion injuries. So it really is an NFL problem with the tackling. And as soon as I saw Kyle get hit, I was like, oh, this– I thought his season was over. Like, the guy literally took out his kneecap and his leg bent the other way. So, brutal, brutal loss for a 49ers fan on a team that, I mean, you really can't afford any more injuries. Like, that's another one. It's just, they just keep adding up. So, yeah, I'm with you on Seattle. My only hesitation here is something's off with Sam Donald. And, you know, I like to think, well, it's because he came back from the injury. But we talked about it last year. He led the league in turnovers. And they totally flipped their way through the season. And we're giving him tons of love to Kubiak. So much of that was on Kubiak and Kenneth Walker. Now we've seen Kubiak go to a team, make them incredible, right? Three and one Raiders. Kenneth Walker now is number one, number two running back in all football on the Chiefs. Can't say it enough how big of a deal it is for the Seahawks team going forward where, you know, coming this year, we're like, well, the Seahawks is still the Seahawks, right? We were like, it's still a great defense. It's been noticeable those losses on offense and Sam Darnold here against this defense. He should have a good game. Like we've seen it, this team, you know, as, as bad as Bo Nix played, there was no real pass rush. Like a lot of that stuff was, I think we both agree. It was web. Like it just didn't seem like there was guys open. You just feel like you got outs coached by the 49ers team, which Hey, 49ers could do it again. They got a great, great coaching staff. So it's another great match for them, but it's like, we're both waiting for this to catch up with this Niners team. They've just been so hot. Public is just so in love with them. So, um, I'm with you. If you can get two and a half in the Seattle Seahawks, I'd grab that right now. It's not as confident if it's three and a half. That's what probably market's going to go to next. Obviously, this is a little bit like we did with Houston last week, where not that we didn't hate Houston at the three and a half, but it was just like we're picking a team here at a bad number. It usually doesn't work out for you. This feels the same here with Seattle, where it's like you need to get the best number here. This Niners team is so good, so well coached. We know Seattle has had their number the last couple seasons here, especially defensively. But Purdue's playing at such a high level, you're going to step in front of the train, get the best of the number. So, yeah, looking at this one, I totally agree with you, Chad. If we're going to have any favorite in this week, this one really jumps out to me as a favorite. We definitely want to be taking it two and a half.
01:07:52
Speaker 1: Detroit is visiting Arizona. Arizona is a four and a half point home underdog. The line was six. You talk about best of the number. The line was six on Sunday. You tagged it right away. I feel like I want to be on Arizona here, but I'm upset that we can't offer it to people at six and it won't be six or six and a half or five and a half in the contest. If you look at the matchup, these are two of the worst defenses in the league. And our theory on playing Carolina last week against Detroit was that it doesn't matter how bad Carolina's defense is. We're going to rely on Bryce Young at home, who we do believe in as an underdog. He's going to score every time he gets the ball. At least we have to believe that he will. And that's why we're betting Carolina. I don't have the same faith in Arizona being able to score and keep up with the Lions offense to say, hey, go get this, especially when we've lost a point and a half of value.
01:08:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I can't believe I'm on another favorite, but I think you're right. where the lines have moved now to being probably the right side to bet. Especially after such an embarrassing loss against Carolina. We've seen this, this pattern developed now of Campbell. They, they, they cover and then they get terrible no cover the next week. Like they've just, they've had this weird pattern now since Ben Johnson's left. And I know I think it's Paris Campbell, the, certain left or right tackle for Arizona is going to miss this game as well, which that's a big deal because Hutchinson is literally the best defender by far Detroit has. And, you know, last week against Carolina, he was in there. Bryce Young just had an incredible game. So for set, you expect him to bounce back. I mean, that Giants game, horrible game by him, right? Two really bad picks. But Detroit tends to bounce back, especially against bad teams like this. Like you expect, Detroit to get theirs. I mean, this game reminds me a lot of when we talked about a couple weeks ago with the Jets, where I remember we had a little bit of a bet on the Jets' money line, but we were just like, don't even take the spread. This feels like the type of game the Jets will win that they wouldn't cover. Now, I don't think they did cover. I think Atlanta ran it right on seven. It was a six-and-a-half spread, so Detroit did cover that game. It feels the same thing here, where Arizona, they'll lose this game, and it'll be by seven. This isn't that Ben Johnson lines where they would win this game by 20, 25 after that embarrassing loss in prime time. But I still think this offense, all the weapons they have, they should put up a ton of points against Arizona's suspect defense. And on the flip side, I think defensively, as bad as they've looked, this isn't that terrible of a matchup for Detroit's defense against this Arizona team. Yeah, shockingly, another favorite this week for us like Detroit.
01:10:36
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football, Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons. The line is two and a half. The game is in Atlanta. It's another prime time game. There's some threes out there, but it has ticked down from three and a half down to three, down to two and a half.
01:10:53
Speaker 2: I think there's a couple of reasons here.
01:10:55
Speaker 1: One, we still don't know the status of Lamar Jackson who left the game against the Titans and didn't play in the second half because of an ankle injury. And also just what the Falcons have been doing now two weeks in a row on prime time with Bijan just going off. And now they're getting another prime time game, um, Interesting spot. To me, it's a pass until I get a better sense of who's actually playing in the game.
01:11:20
Speaker 3: Not me. You've seen what I've done these last couple weeks. I've just been all in on Atlanta. It's been paying my mortgage. It's really that easy. This is how I make my money. It's just adjusting before the public adjusts to it. The public just was unsure about Pennix, just like I was, obviously, that Sunday night against Monday night against Green Bay, or Thursday night, I should say, but That Saints matchup I just knew coming in, that was going to be a really favorable matchup with the Falcons. It feels the same here. This Ravens team, it's really all about Lamar. And if you're taking away his ankle, which he needs to run, how can you not like the Falcons? As good as his arm has looked, right, and his connection with Zay Flowers and against a suspect secondary with all these injuries for the Falcons, sure, he bought a pass to the ball. But if it's a hampered Lamar, I still like the Falcons. And now if it's Snoop Huntley, even more so. Like he just– He looked totally lost trying to run that offense last week. So, yeah, hopefully you guys listened Sunday night. Three and a half was truly a gift back in this Falcons team. And it moved the exact way I thought it was going to move, where it's like, okay, you take Atlanta now. If Lamar's injuries are for real, this will easily flip to Atlanta being Falcons, being favorites. Here we're sitting there favorites now. And I'd still take the two and a half until it's at three or above. I would still take the Falcons here. And if Lamar comes back, maybe we get back to plus one and a half from the Falcons and you could take another Bet on that if you want to or buy it out of your position if you wanted to. But I'm still dug in on Atlanta here. I still think the books are still underrated and not pricing them right. So, Ryan, I'm interested in what the public does with this. Like if it's up to three and a half, maybe that's when we start to get a position on this Ravens team. But still at two and a half, I still think the right side is take the Falcons.
01:12:59
Speaker 2: Last game on the board.
01:13:01
Speaker 1: And reminder, we're doing our Sunday morning episodes live on YouTube at 11 a.m.
01:13:06
Speaker 2: So they're going a little bit later. But we're doing them live.
01:13:08
Speaker 1: If you want to hear the final five contest picks, join us live, Sharper Square YouTube, 11 a.m.
01:13:13
Speaker 2: Sundays.
01:13:14
Speaker 1: Buffalo at the Los Angeles Rams. The Buffalo Bills are two and a half point underdogs. I like Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are plus two and a half.
01:13:25
Speaker 3: I did Sunday night, but I did say, just putting a teaser because something's fishy about this line. Something wrong with Josh Allen right now, Chad. What do you think it is? I don't know. He's got a lot going on in off-field life. He's got a wife and a baby on the way. I feel like there's more.
01:13:46
Speaker 2: They have the baby. They have the baby.
01:13:48
Speaker 3: Yeah. There's a lot going on. He just seems different. That game against the Patriots, there were just so many times, even when he was going three and out, where it's just you're not used to him, them being so sloppy offensively.
01:14:02
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:14:04
Speaker 3: It was the same reason I didn't want to bet Joe Brady anything Super Bowl-wise. First-year head coaches just do not win the Super Bowl. It's so rare for them to even let alone make a Super Bowl. And it's a little worrisome where Joe Brady is running the show, and that worries me a little bit because in that game, Cook is picking up, I feel like, five, six yards per carry, but they're not feeding him. They weren't feeding him the ball. They were still trying to let Josh Allen win that game for him where they weren't taking advantage of what was working for him. And that's what I worry about here with the Rams. It's like Is it that easy? It just feels like a little too easy here. I don't get this line at all. I thought this would be a pick-em. Just because we're a couple weeks in here. The Rams haven't looked good either. They played one good game against the Giants. Every other game has been very sloppy. Matt Stafford has not looked right either, which I think is fair to say. This is one where I'm hoping I can just tease the Bills and that will be my position. I'm with you. I really wanted to be on the Bills here, but something's just off i don't get why the books are giving us two and a half they're very nice of them giving us two and a half i mean we talked about two two is such a key number here but um yeah bizarre line by the books here and maybe we're just too high on josh allen this bill's team still where it's like are we all in this team because they won week one then beat up a bad chargers team like are we hyping up this team too much well they really haven't beat up that good of teams on their schedule it's like you know houston's over four it like I get why there's so many people questioning the Spills team right now. That's why I'm trying to take a step back here because it's another game that felt very easy Sunday night where I couldn't believe we're getting two and a half on the Spills team. So interesting what the professionals do this one. As we see it right now, I'll just throw them in a teaser of the Spills team and take the easy way out, get them up to eight and a half.
01:15:46
Speaker 2: All right.
01:15:48
Speaker 1: We got a lot of things we're going to have to narrow down on Thursday. Simon says was New Orleans plus two and a half. Chad's choice. was Seattle minus two and a half. But I think we got questions about the Jets at minus two. I think we got questions about New England at minus three and a half. I think we're curious to see what the professionals say about the Chargers in Denver and certainly this game, the Bills and the Rams in Los Angeles. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume. podcast network we will be back on thursday with the games we are zeroing in on plus our survivor pick our head-to-head battle brass ball.
01:16:32
Speaker 2: So much more watch or listen on youtube.
01:16:34
Speaker 1: At sharper square like the video subscribe to the channel download us with spotify apple pods wherever you get your pods rate review subscribe leave us five stars Say whatever you want.
01:16:42
Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
01:16:46
Speaker 4: Football is a Spartan game with its qualities of sacrifice and self-denial. Game also of violent contact. And because of that violent contact, there's a personal discipline required that is seldom found any other place in this modern world.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes Square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
00:00:12
Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman.
00:00:13
Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
00:00:24
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
00:00:28
Speaker 3: Chad, how are we doing?
00:00:30
Speaker 1: Betting is so fun, funny, stupid. On Sunday night, we are recording this show. And brother, we are in agony because we've barely escaped going 0-4. We needed the miracle two-point conversion from old man Kirk Cousins to get the Raiders to cover against the Chiefs for our lone win on Sunday. we're one in three heading into Monday night. We have Atlanta and they cover no problem. And then if you look at the games and you pointed this out, so I'm not telling you anything you don't know, like you got to stay even. Cause if you look at the three losses in context of the whole week, we're just as close to being three and two with the with the Broncos covering, or we're just as close to being 1-4 with the Raiders not getting the two-point spread. So it's like you can't win for trying, man.
00:01:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard. It's a hard job. I've never made light of that. But sometimes it's really easy. Last night it was easy. Yeah, even the Panthers were easy. Panthers were easy. There's easy wins out there, Chad. Can you find those easy wins, my friend? And right now we're having a tough time finding them and putting them in the contest. So, yeah, it sucks. The contest is really tough, but at the same time, just stick to it and the results will play out as they should, which is a winning record for us. So, yeah, it's tough not to win on Sunday, but it's also like, okay. kind of got to get over and move on. That's the whole point of this business. So yeah, it's, I'm only as good and as bad as my last bets. And right now I'm two and a, on my last two bets, Chad.
00:02:28
Speaker 2: Well, it's funny you point that out.
00:02:31
Speaker 1: Cause you know, I know you don't like to look at the comments, but I do dig into the comments on YouTube and on Twitter. And we're, we're very lucky. We, you and I and Matt Mitchell have been doing the show together for.
00:02:45
Speaker 2: A long time. And because we've, Usually one, we have.
00:02:51
Speaker 1: Some goodwill built up here and a lot of listeners pointed out in all the comments that we used to actually do a better job of track back in the action days.
00:03:02
Speaker 2: We used to do a better job of tracking everything we liked.
00:03:06
Speaker 1: So like we might've had a place where we had logged Miami and.
00:03:13
Speaker 2: The bears and Carolina.
00:03:15
Speaker 1: And so we probably need to figure out a way to do that because Even our commenters are like, dudes, you're giving out games that you like. You're just not putting them in the contest. Why aren't you doing a better job of tracking all that? So we can discuss how we can better illuminate when we are on the easy wins instead of the choices that get so hard in the final five on Sunday.
00:03:40
Speaker 3: And let the record show, people, you guys can say whatever you want to. I literally do not care. Chad cares, clearly. by your comments. He reads it all though. I don't care. If I see your comment, I read it more power to you. I don't read everything. Cause I get so much information, but I truly do not care. This is a free contest and I give out free picks and I'm as gentle as I can say this. I make more on a Sunday than I do for this entire year doing this show. So I do care about this show. I care about the info I give out, but it's like, you're never going to hurt my feelings. I promise you. So you can, Tear me a new one. I won't care. I won't block you. The only people I block nowadays are people that just plainly lie. Like someone that goes online and says, I sell them picks. Never charge a single penny to a listener of this show. And anyone that says that stuff, they're just plainly lying on the internet for clicks. So yeah, I don't mind. You can tear me apart. People listen to the show. They know how hard I work. But yeah, if you want to bash Chad right now, Chad deserves it. I agree with you people. Attack Chad.
00:04:45
Speaker 2: The thing is, I don't care about getting bashed.
00:04:47
Speaker 1: I like the comments and the feedback to see how we could potentially improve the show. I've been doing this a long time. I've been getting bashed for a long time. I sleep fine when people are mad at us. I don't sleep well when I feel like the show isn't as good as it can be or we can make it better. That's what I'm looking for. I ignore negative feedback. You know, I live in a perpetually rosy, optimistic state. So I only take in the good feedback and think, yeah, it's all true. And the bad feedback, I ignore and be like, they don't know what they're talking about.
00:05:26
Speaker 3: I take it all in. Like I said, if someone's saying, calling us out on certain stuff, I will take it to heart. I don't know if you played a Tennessee game yet this year in the contest. I take that stuff to heart people. I do hear your hate for us taking these bad teams, but.
00:05:41
Speaker 2: Which could be why we didn't choose Miami last week.
00:05:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, partially. Could be part of it. Like I said, though, brother, if you come in your chat and you want to put any type of game in on Sunday, I've approved it. I'm literally letting you do whatever you want right now. So I think we'll find it. It's just you're not picking the right five and it's tough. It's really tough picking the five for the contest. So we said it. We should be three and two, three different weeks. All three of those weeks went two and three. So it's like. Like I said, I'm trying not to kill myself on it. Obviously, it looks terrible when Matt Mitchell flashes our record, but it's a hard contest. It's, you know, a normal contest. You pick five games. The lines are set on Tuesday. These lines aren't set until you pick them whatever day that is. And we can't pick Thursdays. So it's it's not an easy contest by any measurement. That's why I love doing this show.
00:06:32
Speaker 2: You know what else hasn't been easy?
00:06:35
Speaker 1: Watching NFL games, because there are so many freaking penalties, it destroys your ability to believe in what you're seeing until you've almost gone to commercial at the end of a play or a drive.
00:06:49
Speaker 2: Through four weeks.
00:06:50
Speaker 1: This is from Warren Sharp. Matt Mitchell sent us this last night. Through four weeks, the most flags thrown in a decade. Through four weeks, we have seen the most red zone penalties per game by offenses in history. We have seen the most penalties on third and fourth downs in the second half of games in history. There have been 17 touchdowns so far this year nullified by penalties. Only five in 2025 at this point. 2024, there were only four. We were texting about this last night because.
00:07:33
Speaker 2: Played in our favor.
00:07:34
Speaker 1: The Saints had a holding penalty on a drive for the Falcons early in the game where they might have had to kick a field goal. They ended up getting a first down on a hold on a defensive back for the Saints at the goal line. They ended up scoring a touchdown. I actually wonder if at some point coaches have to start accounting for this. Offensively, do you go for it more in fourth down because you think that the referee calling a penalty is increases your chances of conversion beyond just the play itself. Cause it feels like that's an easier place for them to find, to call penalties. That.
00:08:11
Speaker 3: And I mean, we just had an issue. We had two refs get suspended, right? I think I saw that yesterday and it's all about how they're acted towards players, which I totally agree with. It's like, I see videos, like there's a video yesterday of this guy in the stands, you know, on a Herbert and said, you're, you're, your wife's better than you are or whatever, or like you're just as bad as your wife. Cause she's super hot, whatever it is. And never in this world where a guy go up to six, five, Justin Herbert on the street and talk shit to him about his future wife. Right. So, okay. The fans get away with it because that's the whole point of the sport, right? They're once paying the money, the referees cursing out players or talking tough to players and, Thank God the NFL stepped in because it's like, how delusional are these people?
00:08:56
Speaker 2: So stupid.
00:08:57
Speaker 3: Just because you're wearing a little referee outfit, you think you can talk down and step up and chest NFL players or tell them to F off. I just, I am so happy these refs got suspended again in trouble because like you said, it's the ego on some of these refs. Sometimes they want to be involved and be on camera. And it's like, I just, we need, we need the NFL to step in. Some of these games are unwatchable because like you said, these refs are doing way too much. I mean, that Jaguars game, was unwatchable. Like that Cincinnati game, whatever it was, 10 penalties or 11 penalties in the first half.
00:09:26
Speaker 2: 10 penalties on the Jags in the first half.
00:09:28
Speaker 3: Yeah. It's, I mean, it's, you can call it.
00:09:30
Speaker 2: Three touchdowns called off the board. Yeah.
00:09:33
Speaker 3: Like we say all the time, you can call a penalty every time. It's, there's always holding, there's always something going on. There's always guys grabbing. I mean, defenders get tired, especially in the fourth quarter. They're going to grab a little. So it really is tough where I know it's, we try to make this fair as possible. It's all judgment calls, but, At some point, I think the fans are just going to get so restless with it. So, yeah, I think the NFL is definitely going to see a Warren Sharpe's tweet, and hopefully they do something about it. Just too many penalties, too much stoppage, no flow in these games. So, yeah, great point by bringing that up.
00:10:06
Speaker 1: We're going to have some flow today, brother. This is our Tuesday NFL Week 5 show. You're going to hear our Chad's Choice, our Simon Says. Try to narrow down some picks for our free– As you pointed out, free.
00:10:22
Speaker 2: $ 25, 000.
00:10:23
Speaker 1: Pro football pick'em contest. Go sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top finisher getting paid 10 grand. Don't forget, you can get the show on Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe, like this video where you're at it. Follow us on Insta, TikTok, X, subscribe, Sharper Square. Okay, Thursday Night Football, Dallas, Texas. Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Dallas Cowboys. The resurgent Dallas Cowboys. On Sunday night, we talked about this game. It was at nine and a half. I loved Tampa at nine and a half. The line has moved in their direction. It's at eight and a half at a lot of books. If you look at Polymarket, the line that is sort of highlighted, the trade that is highlighted is seven and a half. Clearly a lot of wise guys came in on Tampa. I think I know why, but do you have thoughts on this?
00:11:27
Speaker 3: Your reason why is because the Dallas defense is terrible? I don't know. Could be. Yeah, I'll play Dallas here. I just– the Bucs, I mean, they used up a lot of their luck in that game against Green Bay. They're just– they have an undrafted free agent as their quarterback right now. The kid is– he looks exactly as you would assume. This is not– the second coming of Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in the seventh round. This is not Tony Roma rebirth. This is a guy as a rookie has not learned any good habits in mine Baker. And now he's thrown into a really tough position and green Bay. I don't think we consider them a playoff team. Incredible cover. I mean, some people got burned, right? Green Bay technically covered that game. Cause I think they closed as a two and a half point favorite. So, um, Bucs last week were a very sharp side. Pros are all over them at four and a half, all the way down to three. They're back to the well once again, and I get it, right? Dallas' defense is so bad, you assume a backdoor, but this usually feels the type of game that Dallas just blows a team out and wins by 20 or 21. Some people ask me about Survivor. I don't really do Thursday Survivors because Tampa could win this game. It's literally a short week. They have no time to prepare. It's basically... rest your body, come and do a walkthrough on Wednesday, and you have a game Thursday. There's just so limited prep this week. So if you're asking if I had to make a pick on it, I'll pick Dallas. But I don't feel great about it. Chad's reasoning is right. It's like this is such a bad defense that could easily be backdoored. It's just I don't know if Tampa has the guys to backdoor this one. And another week, Todd Bowles kept his job. So it's pretty crazy. Pretty crazy right time right now, Tampa.
00:13:12
Speaker 1: Tampa's defense has also been surprisingly stout. It's mostly against the running game, which is not how you're going to beat Dallas by stopping the running game. But it is interesting to me how much this line has moved from what the opener was at nine and a half. Also, look, I thought that game against the Packers, if you were on the four... Good for you. Jalen Daniels, he threw some bad throws in that game. The Packers are a middling defense. The Cowboys are a really bad defense. So do some of those throws turn into less bad throws because the Cowboys can't defend them in any way that the Packers can? Maybe, but like you said, you're kind of hoping for the backdoor here. Sunday morning, Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars from London, 9.30 a.m. Jags are now six and a half point favorites. Simon, some Philly fans are very upset.
00:14:16
Speaker 2: It's bad coaching again.
00:14:19
Speaker 4: Sirianni blew the game again for the unsmosed times.
00:14:25
Speaker 2: Nick is cute.
00:14:26
Speaker 3: He's angry. He can scream, but what's happening at halftime?
00:14:31
Speaker 2: Are we eating meatball subs? Unsmosed times. Unsmosed times. He's cute, that Sirianni.
00:14:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, he gave me a little PTSD, though. I told you that walk was just an awful, awful experience out of that stadium. I was much more sober than those guys, but I felt the exact same way. Just confused, angry, and it's hard not to blame Sirianni. I mean, they have tons of injuries, but there's just so many good coaches out there, and I've said it from the get-go. I've never viewed him as one of them, but he's always found a way. He's hired the right people, and Yeah, like we talk all the time. If you have a bad draft class and you have another bad draft class and you have bad coaching, it doesn't matter who your team is. You can't overcome all these injuries. So the Eagles have been very lucky. They had great draft classes, but the last two years they haven't. They've had to put these guys as starters and they're struggling. So, yeah, this line was three and a half. We did Sunday night. It's ballooned up now because there's just so many injuries to this Eagle side.
00:15:36
Speaker 4: Yep.
00:15:37
Speaker 3: They're down, I think, six of their 11 starters. The guys who are playing, just like I've talked about, Zach Ertz can't start in this league. He's a 38-year-old man who can't block anymore. Cam Driggins, the guy who was one of their better offensive linemen, how he paid him a ton of money, he's like the 84th graded offensive lineman right now in football. He just can't block anybody. It's just been absolutely brutal for this team. People know what I like to do here. I like to take the favorites in England. I mean, it worked out last. We got very lucky. It feels like on the Colts, but that's just why we do it. And the more the public is behind that side, the better. So we hope come Sunday, there's a ton of money coming in on this Jaguars team. But as you sit here right now, I assume most people are going to bet this Eagles side. It's just a lot of points for this Eagles team. So I'll be patient. I'll take the six and a half. I'm not going to put a lot into it, but yeah, I, I just, We talk all the time about the stats. You're just supposed to blindly take the favorites in England. And I know the Eagles, too, are doing the weird travel plan where they're traveling the day before as well. So, you know, traveling the day before, playing the game at 930 in the morning. I don't know how much of a smart idea that is for Howie. Well, the Jaguars are going to be there for the whole week. So, yeah, it's pretty brutal. This Eagles team is about to come home and face Carolina after their bye week next week, potentially at 2-3. So, yeah, it's rough right now in Philadelphia.
00:17:06
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts got blitzed nonstop on Sunday and.
00:17:13
Speaker 2: Blitzed aggressively by the Bears.
00:17:16
Speaker 1: The Jaguars are not a blitzing team, but they do get really good quarterback pressure even without blitzing. Like you mentioned, this offensive line is struggling. We don't know what the status is with Lane Johnson. He missed last week because of personal reasons. we know Dickerson is still out. We know that Sirianni probably looked really good the past five, six years, however long he's been the coach there, because this offensive line had very little turmoil until the last year and a half. And I think we're seeing that as Sirianni, as the offensive line goes, so goes Sirianni, maybe as much as the ever-changing offensive coordinators. But it's tough to watch. It's really tough to watch. Even if you're not an Eagles fan, it's tough to watch.
00:18:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it's also– they're down– they're two starting running backs. They're down their number one tight end. They're down their number one receiver.
00:18:17
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:18:18
Speaker 3: Take away that from any team, you know, I'd like to see how they're doing playing this year. So it's just– it's bad luck. It's bad luck. They've had a ton of injuries. There's not much you can do to overcome that. And, yeah, maybe if we had Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay– They wouldn't have lost that game against the Rams, but Sirianni is what he is. He's never going to be a top 10, top 5 coach, but he's basically in this weird spot now where it's like, if they lose this game, they lose to Carolina, then they lose to Dallas, and he's sitting there 2-4, 2-5. Do we keep letting him be the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles? He feels like he's cost them two games this season. Like I said, it's dark days around Philadelphia, but There's not much you can do. It's just tons of injuries, and there's still even odds, which is mind-blowing with Dallas to win this division. So even the sportsbooks don't know what to do with the Seagulls team.
00:19:11
Speaker 1: And they're not even in first place in the division. New York Giants are visiting the Washington Commanders. This game is generally Commanders minus three, minus three and a half. Jaden Daniels has ascended to the hopeful category. They're hopeful he'll play. I don't know what to make of this Giants team, to be honest. They were one play away from losing that game against the Cardinals. The final score, they won by 12, but they needed a comeback to win that game. And then Jacoby Brissett throws a pick six on the goal line with no time left.
00:19:58
Speaker 2: So I.
00:20:03
Speaker 1: Get why this Giants team is the underdog. I guess I get why the commanders are the favorites with Jaden Daniels if he's coming back. But this just feels like a weird game. I don't really have a feel for either of these teams right now.
00:20:19
Speaker 3: Then trust the number. Are the sportsbooks your friends? Are they giving you an easy plus three on the Giants team against a wounded Jaden Daniels and this bad commanders team coming back from England? It's a very fishy line. So I'm right there with you. I don't get this line at all. I'm just going to bet the commanders because it's, My model doesn't have him as a three-and-a-half-point favorite better than this Giants team, but the books do, and it's such a public side in the Giants. The public's going to be hammering this Giants side compared to this Commander side because right now we don't know if Gene Daniels is going to play. So I'll stay with the books as we sit here on Tuesday, but I'm like you. If I can avoid and not bet this game this week, I'll be happy.
00:20:57
Speaker 2: Let's not do it. We don't have to do it. Simon. Simon.
00:21:01
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings are visiting the New Orleans Saints. We discussed this game on Sunday night when it was at two. What would you like to say about this game?
00:21:16
Speaker 3: Simon says, give me the Saints plus two and a half at Polymarket.
00:21:20
Speaker 1: Simon says, presented by Polymarket, the New Orleans Saints currently trading at 52% at two and a half. It's actually... When we talked about it on Sunday, it moved down to one and a half. It's back to two, two and a half at the prediction markets. Last night was an ugly night on defense against the dynamic playmaker in Bijan. And an ugly night for Tyler Schach against a very good defense in the Falcons. Even Schach said after the game, he understood why fans were booing. Definitely seeing professionals booing. taking the Saints here. I worry it's not a great spot for the Saints, but it feels like a good number for the Saints.
00:22:09
Speaker 3: I mean, they just get blown out on primetime. I don't know if it gets much better than a spot than this. They're facing the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings, which could easily be 4-0 against the spread as well if they had walked in that touchdown of the game. So it just feels like it's two opposite sides or one's peak offense The other one, people just, they just got burned last night. I mean, the Saints, because of the Steve Gleason night, it was that whole remembering Katrina and everything like that, which, you know, you felt the energy at the start of the game. But the Falcons, the reason we love them, or I especially love them so much, is just the books hadn't caught up to the Pennix number, right? Pennix is such a better facilitator for that offense than they've had in the past quarterbacks. I believe it's the most points they scored last night since Matt Ryan in Super Bowl run in 2016. So, It's been a long time since you've seen a Falcons offense do what they did. And, I mean, they felt like they left points on the board. Like, they really were dominating that game in every way. So, this Saints team just feels like a nice buy-low spot where they're not as bad as they looked last night. That was a brutal matchup for them. On the flip side, I don't think Kyler Murray is going to be able to attack that secondary the same way Penix was, right? Now, Justin Jefferson could be back, which that would obviously be a huge upgrade to Minnesota. And maybe we get another bump because Olave might be out now. I mean, people saw– They still had him in the final two minutes of a blowout game. Don't know why. Took a bad shot to his knee. So we don't know yet what might be happening with Olave. But the Saints team just is not as bad as it looked. And it just feels like it's going to be too overreacted by people in the general public. That game, to me, just felt like a trap game. That was always going to be an Atlanta win. Saints were walking right into it. They were due for that type of game where I think they had coverage three straight weeks. And they had really played tight in all those second halves. I mean... They kept saying on TV, well, this is a second-half team. It's like, well, you can't be a second-half team. It doesn't matter if you're down by 21, and your defense can't stop the run. So this is really one of those weeks where it's like maybe they get off on Tuesday, but there is no, oh, we'll see you guys Thursday. No, they're back in there working. They just got embarrassed. So you expect a bounce back from the Saints team. This is the type of game that feels like the size of their season. Minnesota, like we've talked about, they're a good team, but they're eventually going to get caught here, and the books are going to catch up to them. They're just not going to keep giving away. free money on this Vikings team. So yeah, I'm hoping this keeps going up. Honestly, I know I'm telling people to take it through and a half here. It's really just a case of professionals coming to hit this one because it's just another spot. The public will be all over the Vikings and I'll just be pros here on the Saints team who just looked so bad the night before. So that's what I'm taking a position now just in case this number does move.
00:24:39
Speaker 2: I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best way to trade in sports.
00:24:47
Speaker 1: In the past, If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Houston Texans 0-4 visiting the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are seven-point underdogs. In all four of the games so far, Simon, the Texans have had basically better offensive success rates than their opponents, but their running game is terrible. When they're losing games, it's because their defense is fading.
00:26:14
Speaker 2: We saw it.
00:26:15
Speaker 1: Last week against the Cowboys. We saw it the week before against the Colts. We saw it in week one against the Bills. Titans had a miracle backdoor cover in a game Lamar Jackson did not play in the second half. Seven points is a lot on the road when the Titans have shown no reason to stop playing, no matter how badly they're losing, which is why In a lot of places, this line has moved to 6.5. And at prediction markets, it's pretty much stabilized at 6.5 versus 7.5.
00:26:50
Speaker 2: So you're.
00:26:53
Speaker 3: Going to love the Texans. This just feels like an absolute spot. Go all in on the Texans. They should win this 30-3. We've seen this movie before, right? Texans 0-3, 0-4 now. Really tough start to the schedule. I mean... Come on, Texans. If you don't blow this team out, yes, it really is all over. There's no coming back. If they win this game by three, this will not change my view on them in any way. Because right now, I think we're all just– this is rock bottom. We're so down on them. Yes. I have to bet on here. I get it, people. You hate it. But this is the exact moment this team should be waking up here where it's just– you take out all these frustrations these past couple of weeks on this Titans team, which just had their own miracle backdoor cover against the team that if Lamar played highly unlikely, they find a way to backdoor that because they had zero points of ribbons that second half. So another line, I'm interested what the public does with it. Like I'm hoping the public and the professionals come in on the Titans and keep bumping this Texas number down. Like I'll take the six and a half. I'm hoping it gets to five and a half. That's such a key number. So yeah, it's, It's gross, but this is what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to back the Texans here. This is the perfect thing. They're on the road, so they don't have their own fans billing them, yelling at them. Hostile environment in Tennessee, 0-4, back against the wall. If you're a motivator of men, which I think their head coach is, it's such an easy spot to get that defense up and say, this kid might have been one of the worst quarterbacks in football. We cannot let him cross the 50. So I look at Zimmer, it's like they should win by 20. The Texans should. absolutely blow out this Tennessee team. It's going to be a fun number to follow along all week. I'll throw a small bet right now on the 6.5. I'm not going to invest heavily into it just in case professionals and public come on the Titans. I'll get some free points here. Another game I'll just be patient on. It's all Texans for me, though, in this game.
00:28:55
Speaker 1: When I watch C.J. Stroud, he's not the reason they're losing these games. It's really the defense. I feel like That's not the expectation we had.
00:29:08
Speaker 3: It's all on Dika. It's all on Dika. Dika Ryan's just– I can't get over how bad of a coaching job he's done. How is this defense so unprepared, Chad? We talked coming into the year. They had all 11 starters returning. It doesn't make– it does not make any sense that Dika Ryan can't get this team right.
00:29:24
Speaker 2: They're unprepared at the end of games too.
00:29:27
Speaker 1: And by the way, you want to talk about penalties, the Texans I think had two penalties on the same drive on fourth down inside the five-yard line as a defensive unit against the Cowboys on Sunday.
00:29:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, CJ's actually been pretty good. He hasn't been the anchor that he had been the past couple years.
00:29:50
Speaker 1: If the Texans' defense could actually level up, the team could be a juggernaut. They're so freaking close. Would you bet the Texans to make the playoffs right now?
00:30:02
Speaker 3: I wouldn't just because the AFC to me is better this year than it was last year. Like they're, they're fighting now with New England and the Raiders for that last spot in Denver. Like those are all teams that you could say, well, they're in the, they're in the AFC South. It should be, it should be easier for them as the season goes along. I think the culture can be a better season goes along. Like I think, You know, we keep seeing the Jags. They're better than people give them respect for. So I don't think their division's a layup like it was in the past. And, yeah, it's– I know it's going to be like, oh, plus 200, something crazy like that for them to make the playoffs right now because they are 0-4. So I get it. I just– yeah, I can't make that bet.
00:30:45
Speaker 2: Cincinnati at Miami.
00:30:46
Speaker 1: Miami's a seven-and-a-half point underdog at home. We don't know the status of Jamar Chase with his concussion.
00:30:54
Speaker 2: He's day-to-day.
00:30:55
Speaker 1: We don't know the status of T. Higgins, who was listed as day-to-day with an abductor. We do know that we think the reason the Bengals lost and have lost this year is Joe Burrow. We do know that we have liked Miami multiple times the past couple of weeks when they started out as double-digit dogs.
00:31:14
Speaker 2: It paid off for us once.
00:31:17
Speaker 1: At seven and a half, this feels a little bit like it's on the border for me because this could also feel like If you've wanted a bite of Miami, you've gotten to take your bite. And Cincinnati, maybe if Cincinnati wins this past week, this game is closer to eight and a half or nine. So you might be getting a little bit of value on Cincinnati in a game they got to get right. Similar to the Texans. They got to get this right, even though they're two and two. They need to play like a team that is a contender for the Super Bowl right now. Do they do that against... the Miami dolphins.
00:31:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a hard one. Cause I think we both agree. We want to take Miami here with the hook, but, um, it's another line where we've, we've talked like Cincinnati. If they put it together, they should steamroll this Miami team. They're just, they have so much more talent across the board, but you're right. Like without the chase and T Higgins news, I can't sit here on Tuesday and tell people to blindly bet this one. If those guys are hampered or out for this game. Yeah. We'll, we'll just take Miami with the points. Right. And you expect, um, them to keep this type of game close. But this is another game where it's like, you know, Cincinnati, two straight losses. If Joe Burrow gets right, this is the perfect game to get right for him. So really, really interesting what this number does this week. Cause I do want to be on Cincinnati, but not so much at this number. Maybe I can just hedge it and just take him in survivor pool and let that be my stress this week and stop worrying about Joe Burrow in the fourth quarter. having to cover these numbers, but yeah, really, really smart number to me by the books. Like they know exactly what they're doing here, where seven and a half keeps me away from the Bengals and tempts me more to the dolphins more than anything else. So I'll just try to be patient. A couple of books have touched seven. So maybe that's, this is your time to get in. And we've talked about that teaser with the bills. If you want to tease Houston now with the Bengals, like you have a couple of easy options this week to tease teams down above below key numbers. And the Bengals is one of them right now. So, Would we be shocked if the Bengals lost this game to the Dolphins? No, just because the vibes are just so bad right now with the Bengals. But we keep saying, like, the talent level, they should blow this Dolphins team out. It's just night and day, the difference.
00:33:38
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is becoming one of those guys this year where you're more nervous when he has the ball than you are. And you need something to happen in your favor. than you are when you've bet against him.
00:33:55
Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Does that make sense?
00:33:58
Speaker 3: Well, Joe's great with a lead. I think it was Cowherd. Cowherd had this amazing stat, I believe. I heard him read that. If there's eight minutes left in the game and Joe Burrow's trailing in that game, he is 1-38 straight up in that exact scenario. 1-38 in his career. Now, you know, some of that's not true because he's tied those games in his defense obviously because of the field goal or the touchdown at the end of the game. Yes, we know it's a team game, but that is a damning stat. That just shows what Chad just said, that we're deader than dead if Joe Burrow has the ball and we're down by a couple points at the end of the game. So that's something that needs to weigh in people's mind now. I was looking to take props. I mean, I was one of the first to it, a bashing Joe Burrow. Everyone had this guy as a top three, top five guy because he was so incredible in college and then went to the Super Bowl in his year two. We've had three years now of– below average quarterback play. And Joe beats up bad teams, but he struggles against playoff teams. So this is a bad team. This is exactly who Joe Burrow should be beating up. So that's why I think both of us are just a little gunshot because he burned us so bad last week. But I think we both know we're supposed to play the Bengals here. But it's like, man, without T. Higgins and Chase, it's like, do I really want to invest in Joe Burrow as a seven and a half point favorite without those guys? I really can't do that right now.
00:35:13
Speaker 2: No, no, you do not.
00:35:16
Speaker 1: Neither of us want to do that. Cleveland is visiting the New York Jets. The Jets are, what is that number? Two-point favorites right now. The Browns have the potential this week to feel like a massive, massive, massive public dog.
00:35:34
Speaker 2: The vibes are so good for the Browns right now.
00:35:40
Speaker 1: Beating up on the Panthers two weeks ago, that dramatic win against the Steelers. They're 3-1. Deshaun Watson is playing like it's 2018. He's actually throwing the ball downfield. He's making accurate throws at the goal line. He's actually playing like a legitimate quarterback right now. The New York Jets just had the ball for 18 minutes on offense in a game. It was such a boring game. And it's weird. You know, I've got like four different text chains about the Bears that go on on Sundays. And it was such a weird game where the Bears were dominating, dominating, dominating, but not pulling away. You know, they had some issues against the goal line and on the goal line and just weren't scoring, even though they were dominating. The text chains were so quiet because there was like nothing dramatic.
00:36:39
Speaker 2: To talk about.
00:36:42
Speaker 1: It just felt like a very quietly dominant game. And does that make this game a little bit lower for the Jets than it should be?
00:36:53
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, you won by double digits. What do you want your guys to be saying? It's like you said, it was a dominant win.
00:36:58
Speaker 1: It was a dominant win, but it could have been, listen, we're greedy now. It could have been more dominant. It could have been 30 to six.
00:37:07
Speaker 3: Yeah. I just, I look at this number and we said it Sunday night. It's like, They're begging you to take the Browns. So, interesting what the professional is doing here with this one. I'm hoping it's on the Jets because if it's not, if we're hearing it's like, all right, all the pros are on the Browns as well. Maybe I could be talking to the Browns, but this just felt like, you know, coming to the season, this felt like a Jets spot where the Browns, not that I would think that Sean Watson would be playing at this high of a level right now, but I just knew this would potentially be the peak of the Browns season, right? I talk all the time. I always look for that Thursday night Browns game, and I look to fade them off of that potential win on that Thursday night. And I saw this number. I think it might have been this exact same number in the summer, which is very rare. The books don't adjust, especially the fact that Watson's played so well. I mean, you can say Penix has been the most shocking quarterback this season, what he's done for the Atlanta Falcons. team number two has got to be Deshaun Watson like the fact that this Browns team is three and one it's yeah they've played great defense and they've drafted really well but you talk about time you need a quarterback in this league you need a guy who can find ways to win games and him having multiple fourth quarter drives and wins and you know putting up points it's just it really is crazy like I had high hopes for Deshaun Watson coming this season on the football field obviously we talked not a good person off the field but You just expected him fully healthy to bounce back. We knew the talent level was there. Could he mentally get right? I mean, I can't believe how it's worked out for this Browns team. So, if they're for real, if they're a playoff team, yeah, they're going and they smash this Jets team. And we've talked, like, this Jets team, the book is out and it's very simple how to beat Geno. You just send five. You just blitz, blitz, blitz, blitz, blitz. If he can find the open guy and burn you every now and then, okay. Like, that's... it's fewer farm between what Gino feels like nowadays where it's like, even in that bears game, watching the bears game, he just so many three and out so many, so many times he just looks so totally disinterested. And I mean, Jad even talking about the dead bears defenders joking about that was the easiest game they've ever played in. Like they don't need to rest their body. The guy said it's the first time it is enough for Curry. He's not going to the training room, getting a massage after a game. because he is not sore in any way like that's that is damning to this Jets team especially offensively that they just they were not hitting hard at all so Browns extended rest playing against a Jets defense that you know played a ton of snaps got what do we say it was 55 carries by the Bears defense running the ball I mean the Jets defense must be just absolutely in torture chamber this week. Their bodies must be broken. So yeah, really interesting line to see what the public does this one. Cause it's, I really wanted to take the Browns, but we know these traps, we see what the books are doing here. So I'm going to wait and see what the shops and the professionals do with this number. But yeah, it feels like it's either Jets or nothing for us here.
00:40:06
Speaker 2: Couldn't agree more. I'm so glad to hear you say that.
00:40:10
Speaker 1: Cause I know on Sunday night we had talked about the Browns potentially be in a spot. And now it just feels like something's misaligned here. And we'd be walking into our old friend, the Hornet's Nest, if we just blindly went after the Cleveland Browns. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a two and a half point home favorite. You just mentioned the Colts. I don't have great read on this game other than my instinct says I want to be on the Colts as home underdogs here. I just have, as we did heading into this past weekend, and we did this a couple of weekends ago too, my feeling is that Shane Steichen is a really good coach and that this team is on the ascent. Like they were figuring some things out. They had a rough start to the year, but it started to click with the Texans. It got a little bit better last week with the commanders, even though they went against a third string quarterback. I just think this team is getting better and better. And I don't think the Steelers are getting better and better. I think the Steelers are a pretty inconsistent team that is still completely unsure of who their talent is and how they're going to win games.
00:41:23
Speaker 3: This game is in Pittsburgh. Yeah. You said Colts at home.
00:41:27
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I meant Indy at Pittsburgh.
00:41:31
Speaker 3: Let's say Colts team that just like the Eagles next week, they're skipping the bye week after international game. and now playing a team on extended rest. I mean, schedule makers, it's terrible. Like, how are you going to put the Colts at such a disadvantage? Steelers have extra rest, and the Colts have extended travel. I mean, the Eagles have the same thing. The Panthers are on a bye this week. The Eagles come back from England next week, and they play the Panthers. I don't get the schedule makers doing these type of games. I know they don't care. They're trying to just fit it right, and they're under so much different stuff. Everything's connected in a different way, but How can you not say this is such a huge disadvantage for this Colts team? It really is. That was the first thing that popped out to me so much. They were down 6-0, and Washington had the ball when Marietta got hurt. That was not going their way in any way. That totally flipped that game because when we saw that kid came out there, he looked totally lost, that third stringer. It's not his fault either. The NFL is impossible, and you're taking a guy who's had maybe five to 10 reps total with the first team offense. He just looked totally lost. So I, I surprisingly like Pittsburgh here, but I'm like, yo, I'm going to be patient here and wait because it's just, I think the pros in the public will take the information, the same information I have, which is just based off rest alone. This is such a huge advantage for the Steelers team. But if you do like the Steelers, I take it now. Cause I could just, I could see this start bumping up to three or this Colts team. It's just, Such a brutal, disadvantaged spot for them. Their one big advantage here is the Steelers have struggled against the run. And they have Jonathan Taylor. Obviously, they're going to be able to run the ball on the Steelers team. But you look at the secondary of this Colts team, they don't match up well at all against Aaron Rodgers in this offense of Pittsburgh. We've seen Pittsburgh, especially the last two weeks, they can push the ball through the air. They did against Cincy. They did against the Browns. We've seen McCarthy's offense has gotten better, so props to him. But yeah, very, very weird spot for this Colts team to put in here with all this travel.
00:43:39
Speaker 2: Interesting. I thought you'd be more.
00:43:44
Speaker 1: Into the Colts, but you make a good point about the rest, which I hadn't thought of. I just thought you'd be more into the Colts as like a team that's on the upswing.
00:43:56
Speaker 3: Are they on the upswing or they've had the right circumstances where like the Houston, I think we both agree. They should have probably covered that game potentially even won it against them. Like they had opportunities, but like we talked about D'Amico, he just is struggling right now. And then once again, the commanders, the commanders were all over them in that game. And then it totally flipped when Mariota went out. So I think this Colts team has been very fortunate where I watched Daniel Jones in these games and he still doesn't look right. I don't know if you feel the same way, but yeah, still doesn't look right. And, He doesn't have weapons on the outside. He's just throwing to these no-name receivers. Josh Downs went down in that game. It's tough right now for this Colts team where I think Steelers are going to have the same plan I would have, which is you just put all the guys in the box and let Daniel Jones beat you with Keenan Allen or whoever else they're throwing out there right now. It's a bad spot, it feels like, for this Colts team.
00:44:46
Speaker 4: All right.
00:44:46
Speaker 1: Special programming note. Everyone knows we are the world's most literate sports betting podcast.
00:44:52
Speaker 2: We are releasing.
00:44:53
Speaker 1: A bonus episode tomorrow. We've got a bunch of people who have books coming out. Our old buddy Seth Wickersham has a new book out. Two sports media legends, John Kozner, Ed Desser, also have a book coming out all about the sports media business. So we did a show with them just talking about books. All of them have some great stories because as everyone knows, I have a book coming out in January called The Number. Thrilling deep dive into the high stakes world of sports betting and prediction markets. Sweet spot for anyone listening to this podcast. I did offer last week, anyone who pre-orders 10 copies, I will either Zoom with your group or come visit you. Be like the Norton family in Atlanta. They sent me an email. They ordered 10 books. They promised, if I come, you'll love this, Matt Mitchell. You'll love this, Simon. If I come down to Atlanta, They will get a 4.45 dinner reservation. Even though it'll be at a steakhouse, they promise I can have seeds and lettuce.
00:46:04
Speaker 2: Can't wait to get there.
00:46:06
Speaker 1: Join the fun. Email sharp or square at thevolume.com with your proof of purchase. Let's geek out together in a book club.
00:46:16
Speaker 2: Buy my book.
00:46:18
Speaker 3: Buy my book.
00:46:20
Speaker 2: Buy my book. Our listeners. God love them. Las Vegas at New England.
00:46:31
Speaker 1: New England is a three and a half point favorite right now. Raiders are a massive public dog. Even on the prediction markets, Simon, it's much more expensive to buy the Raiders side than it is to buy the Patriots side. Are we walking into it if we go all in on the Raiders here?
00:46:55
Speaker 3: I don't know if we're walking into it because they have just, they keep outperforming the books expectations, right? I mean, the last week, the number was four and a half and it landed on three. So it's just another week where it's like, the books aren't just off by half a point. I mean, it's a full point and a half. And yeah, it came down to two pointer, but it wasn't like the spread was five or five and a half, right? So it's, especially when you look at the data of the teams that are potentially frauds, right? I mean, I know our old colleague, Dr. Nick puts out the luck rankings, which is kind of the same thing. And right now, the number one team, biggest fraud team for most people projection out are the Giants. Number two, the Browns. Number three, Minnesota Vikings. Number four, the Raiders. So it's not shocking that we're this week. It feels like we should be on the opposite side of all four of those teams I just listed. We know it's going to get caught up to them eventually. All the bricks that keep going their way. NFL doesn't work that way. I mean, unless you're Patrick Mahomes and the chiefs, like usually the breaks don't break for you every year. And we saw last year, right? That caught up to the chiefs. They went from being the year before they were like 11 and two and one score games to, they were like two and 10 and one score games. So you see the NFL, it just, it does that. It just, eventually your luck catches up to you. So Raiders, we've talked how good of a team they've been. And you go back and you watch Kirk. Yes. Kirk has been extremely lucky. Like, Back foot throws 25 yards downfield, hitting guys who are covered tight, like hands in their face. But Kirk's putting it right on the money, right into the bucket. So this one's really tough. We talked a little bit about Sunday night because I couldn't believe this is what the books opened it. Because to me, if they opened it at three, they would get very balanced, good action. Like people would be taking the Patriots. But at minus three and a half, who's betting the Patriots here? I just– As much as they did win that game against the Bills, we talked, the Bills beat themselves, it feels like, in many ways in that game. So, and all that third down luck. I mean, Drake May, out of his mind, third and 10s, third and 11s, Matt Collins, whoever, downfield, making plays.
00:49:04
Speaker 1: By the way, Matt Collins, the guy who replaced Matt Collins, making a one-handed catch.
00:49:09
Speaker 2: In the end zone.
00:49:11
Speaker 3: Yeah. So... It is tough where it's like, I want to fade the Patriots, but we mean you've done this long enough the books are telling us what to do here so i guess i'll take the patriots or pass on this one but i don't feel good about it i just i love this raiders team so much i believe so much in them it's i feel like i'm betraying my girlfriend here it's like i feel like we're supposed to take the raiders but it just we we see all the warning signs flash right now where it's like you said this is gonna be the most public dog by far this week them and the browns are going to be beloved by the public this week. Two road dogs.
00:49:42
Speaker 1: Clint Kubiak at halftime of that Raiders-Chiefs game said, we're going to win this game. I felt like he was talking to me, honest to God. Like we needed the win. We needed the Raiders to play well in that game. And I felt like he was truly channeling his energy and directing it to me. I love the way he has this team believing. I love the way he is scheming up plays for Kirk Cousins. I do think that's giving Kirk so much more confidence when he is going and being called on to make the plays. Because like you said, maybe you're thinking of the same play I am, but they had a replay of a throw that he made. His guy was not open and he just put it directly, not even on his hands, on his fingertips.
00:50:32
Speaker 2: If you're watching on YouTube right now, you can see like.
00:50:36
Speaker 1: This is my left hand is the defensive back's hand. My right hand is the receiver's hand. Like there was an inch of room there and he nailed it. He was rolling left and throwing across his body into triple coverage. And like, I think Clint has him believing that he is Kirk Cousins of five years ago. So it's hard to bet against that. I get why the public is coming in on it. And the Patriots have given us no reason to believe in them other than the fact that they had a miracle play by a, you know, a player off the practice squad.
00:51:10
Speaker 2: That's really it. That's what we're betting. That's that.
00:51:13
Speaker 1: And like, at some point the party's got to end for the Raiders, we assume, but Jesus, I don't want to bet against the Raiders. And I know we can't bet on the Raiders.
00:51:22
Speaker 3: And I was shocked. I don't know if you saw Vrabel, basically CJ Garden Johnson was said that like that guy Chisholm had a once in a lifetime catch and was talking smack about him. And Vrabel went right back and was like, listen, This is a guy that knows plenty about practice squads. He's been on whatever it was, four teams in eight years.
00:51:39
Speaker 2: I didn't see that.
00:51:41
Speaker 3: Which, yeah, irrespective of Rabel, I mean, he's opening himself up to just be absolutely crushed. It's like, dude, you cheated on your wife for eight years. Who are you to say anything about anybody in any situation right now? So good for Rabel not to change who he is because he knows he's the easiest, most open target in the world right now for talking shit. So I love that one-liner right back at CJ from Rabel, which is– Braywell should do right. Get your guys backs. But as soon as I heard that joke, I was like, my God, this guy is truly in a bubble because it's like, you just, he's in a weird spot where he can just can't be making it. He's the easiest guy ever to make fun of right now. So yeah, I really cannot wait for that next rematch of Bill's Patriots. Cause I mean, you had Patriots players spitting on the ground as they were leaving saying F you to that new stadium. And just, I just love divisional games. It's the best. Like these guys literally hate each other. So, Uh, yeah, like we said, this feels like we're supposed to take a Patriots here. We, we love the Raiders. So it just, we feel torn. This is truly a torn, torn pick right here. We know we're supposed to do, but we love the Raiders.
00:52:44
Speaker 1: Well, we got three divisional games coming up right now. Chicago at Green Bay, Green Bay is a two and a half point underdog at home. This is the world we live in right now. Tyson Bajent is nearly a field goal favorite on the road in the biggest rivalry in all of professional football. We know this isn't really about Tyson Pagin. We know this is about fans believing that anyone Ben Johnson puts under center can win.
00:53:10
Speaker 2: And cover because that is what keeps happening.
00:53:14
Speaker 1: Can we believe, Simon, have we reached peak inflation and hype on the Chicago Bears?
00:53:25
Speaker 3: And this is not the biggest rivalry. This is the oldest rivalry, Chad. The biggest rivalry would be the Eagles-Cowboys, which I believe put up like 40 million views their opening game last year. So put a little respect on their true biggest rivalry. No, I'm kidding. But it's an all-timer, right? I'd have to go through my notes, but I'm almost positive I had it written down, where the last time you guys were favored in Lambeau. 2006. Yes. And you guys won, like, 30-0. Yeah. So are the books telling us what to do once again last week? I know you were a little gun-shy last week on your Bears team against the Jets, but I just joked with you. It's like this is coaching male practice. I mean, I couldn't get over the advantage you guys had coaching-wise with Ben Johnson, and it's not the same obviously with LaFleur. LaFleur is a great coach here, but this is a line where I couldn't believe it. Sunday night we were sitting there. It's one and a half, and it's like, why would this number not be three? Like, Green Bay is a terrible team right now. They're undisciplined. Without Jordan Love, they would not have won a game this year. Now, they're sitting here 2-2 because of him. Like, he's been that great and that high level of a caliber in his quarterback position. But team-wise, overall, I mean, they're just– they're playing so well together, the Bears. Like, they just– they found something in that Caleb injury against the Vikings. Like, that loss totally flipped something with this team where now we've had two straight weeks of– you know, pretty dominant back to their core, who they are running the ball, right? They kind of lost there against Minnesota where they're, in my opinion, just throwing the ball too much where it's like the run was working. Like Ben got away from it. The last two weeks, he got right back to it against Philadelphia, then against the Jets. It's another team in Green Bay that's like, you know, down so many guys on the offensive line. They got away with it last week against Tampa because Tampa doesn't really have much of a pass rush, but you expect here in Chicago, that's the one really good thing they have defensively is they can get a pass rush overall. If it's still two and a half at your shop, I'm still going to put a bet here on this Bears team because I still think there's potential of Caleb coming back here. If Caleb does come back here, I can easily see this running right back up to three and a half, three. Two and a half right now, Pauly Marquette, I'll take that number. Obviously, I still wish it was one and a half, but Once it starts getting up to 3, 3.5, and if it is the backup quarterback, I might have to take a position on Green Bay. I really don't want to. People can tell. I'm just super down on Green Bay. It was like last week. I was just so much happier to have a 3.5 on Tampa than I was to have a 2.5 on Green Bay because I just kept thinking Green Bay is going to blow this game. Now, we talked. That rookie, he gave it away to Green Bay. He threw bad picks. They just couldn't get it together. Whatever it was, they won 17-14 against a really bad Tampa team. This is not a bad team in the Bears, so... Books are telling themselves a little bit. Another line where it's like they opened a bad number, one and a half. The pros came in and just absolutely thrashed this one. Now it's up to two and a half, three. I'm still going to take a position on two and a half, but it's another number I think later in the week, maybe I'll be more in love with it. I sit here right now, it just feels way too easy. It's who's still backing this Green Bay team? They are so injured and they are so bad. I don't get how you're going to back them, especially after a week they just won and covered. This line does not make sense to me in any way.
00:56:47
Speaker 1: They also, by the way, they lost another player, Edruin Cooper, on the defensive side of the ball towards Achilles on.
00:56:55
Speaker 3: Sunday.
00:56:56
Speaker 1: So it's just one more player who's going to be out for the Packers.
00:57:03
Speaker 3: All right.
00:57:04
Speaker 1: Denver at the Los Angeles Chargers. I nearly made this Chad's choice. The Chargers are three and a half point home underdogs. It's really not as much of an edge as you'd think statistically. four home underdogs who are in this winless position. But, and Sean Payton has a history of really having his offense blow up when we get into October. He has said in the past, the first month of the year, you're figuring out who your team is and as Against the Spread record shows, his teams get much, much better when you get into October and beyond. Of course, the challenge is, Davis Webb is calling the plays. The challenge is Bo Nix is not nearly as good on the road. So I want to be on the chargers here. My concern is that Rashawn Slater, injured, probably not playing in this game. Joe Alt, injured in the last game, day-to-day right now. Lad McConkie left the game early. No reports yet on whether or not he'll be playing. Derwin James, likely out in this game. So, I really want to be on the chargers here. I think I am going to be, forget it. I'm on the chargers in this game, but I'm doing it because of the spot and because it's the hook. And because I think that the Broncos are a little bit inflated because they're the Broncos, but more so because the chargers have been so bad.
00:58:40
Speaker 3: Yeah. This is another game that where they're, they're begging you to take the chargers. So I'm, I think we're on opposite sides here. It's like I'm on the Broncos. And the fact that all these injuries are even more so popping up for the Chargers makes me even more want to be on this Denver team. Because the Chargers, as bad as they've looked, they've had two back-to-back really close games. They fought tooth and nail to win, and they fell short. And they had so many things. go right in both those games for them, and they still couldn't get the covers. I mean, I think they pushed last week, and they didn't cover the week before. It's just the books are giving them as many points as they possibly can. This line in August, I had to go back to my notes. I'm most positive it was minus four on the Chargers or minus three and a half.
00:59:28
Speaker 2: Jesus Christ.
00:59:30
Speaker 3: And you would say that.
00:59:31
Speaker 2: Would make sense. That would make sense.
00:59:32
Speaker 4: Right.
00:59:32
Speaker 1: Because the Chargers had the second shortest odds to win the division. And the Broncos had the third and it was a home game. So it would totally make sense that they're three, three and a half at least.
00:59:42
Speaker 3: And like you said, it's a bad spot for the Chargers since the Broncos since they just played the 49ers. And now they're on the road again playing the Chargers like that's that is really tough. But I don't know what you're backing here in the Chargers other than a number. You're simply blindly betting the number and saying, well, they can't go over five against the spread. I bet you they can. That's why I'm taking a position on Denver. I don't think the books have caught up to it with the injuries and Herbert, whoever we envision him being these last couple of years.
01:00:10
Speaker 2: He's not him.
01:00:12
Speaker 3: No. And anyway, like he's, he's has habits right now that he never had in the past. His footwork, it looks like he's totally forgot what he learned in his whole career. He's got happy feet now because of the hits he's taken and all this other stuff. So It's another number I don't have to deal with because it's so chalky, so public taking Denver here. But it's like, you're telling me you're getting that Denver defensive line against a front five that could be four backups now? And if Alt misses, it'll be all five will be backups. And they're already on their third string center. So it's just, it keeps piling up. I feel so bad for the Chargers. It's like, you know, they're not getting any type of breaks in any of these games. They've been fighting hard these last couple weeks, but it's like, you know, this is a horrible, horrible spot for them to be playing against a Denver team that's coming off a bad loss. Even when you talk to those guys in the locker room, even they were more upset than I was about that whole– it was that guy's forearm down in that block and how that flipped the game. So, I mean, you got Sean Payton getting cursed off by ex-players on the field when he's getting in the handshake. I don't know if you saw that. Like, he just– yeah. Like, he just– you expect them to take all that rage out on this Chargers team that's just beaten down, and this has nothing left. So I can already tell you the pros will be on the Chargers. Like Chad said, it's a home divisional dog. They're facing 0-5, and they're going to be facing 0-5 against the spread. So I don't knock you for taking a position here. I just can't tell our listeners to take this Chargers team. Maybe I'll get there on next show, have some pros calling, because I haven't bet this game yet, but As I say right now, it just feels like everything points to this Broncos team. Maybe we'll take a position in Chargers' first half and try to be sneaky about it where it's like, well, we've seen the Broncos be so bad in the first half. Maybe that's the play. But I just– I have a hard time thinking we can have three straight weeks of this Chargers team backdooring because that's what you're hoping on here. You're really– you know they're charging. You're going to probably lose this game. You're just praying for a backdoor with the hook.
01:02:15
Speaker 2: What does your model have it at right now?
01:02:19
Speaker 3: Honestly, it's a Chargers number. I got it at two and a half. That's what I'm saying. I don't think we've accounted for it. People don't get it. That's a huge adjustment. That's moving at five to six points from what I had in the preseason. It's really tough. The model is telling you what to do. The pros are telling you what to do. It's like, man, I can't get over all these injuries this team has had. We've seen Herbert in the past. He's overcome these injuries. He's been great as a big dog, but This year is a big dog. He hasn't covered yet. So it's like you have to kind of throw those old numbers out. They just don't really go with what this team is this year.
01:02:56
Speaker 1: Well, the other game that is the divisional rivalry is San Francisco visiting Seattle. You pinpointed the game on Sunday night. It was a two and a half. And then Sunday night, it very quickly moved to three and to three and a half in some spots. It's now leveled off. It's mostly three.
01:03:16
Speaker 2: There actually are some two and a halves out there.
01:03:20
Speaker 1: This is going to be Chad's choice. I think this is a similar matchup that we're talking about with the Broncos, right? A really good defense in Seattle, a coach who we believe in, a quarterback we think is suspect. And I think Kyle Juszczyk being out has a huge impact on the Niners' offense. He does a lot of stuff with motion. that I think is important to what the Niners try to do. It's why they have a fullback that plays as often as he does. But now we're getting the Niners who probably, as you just pointed out, I think they got away with one against the Broncos. Like that fumble changed everything in the game. And if Seattle can do to the Niners with Mike Evans, who's still playing with broken ribs and still no Nick Bosa, what the Broncos did.
01:04:14
Speaker 2: Only now they're doing it at home. I got it back. The Seahawks is a short home favorite.
01:04:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I've– you're talking about use check. I've talked to people all the time within the NFL team, scouts, and people working front office, and I say a nod to all these people. They need to– really, the NFL needs to step in and bring back tackling and practice because– I get it. There's sometimes these guys to take them down. They have to go at the knees and the thighs. That's where they're aiming for the tackle, but they're not wrapping up. They're just, they're just going and throwing their whole body at these people's lower bodies. And that's how you end careers, right? Like that shot to his knee. Now it's not out for the season. He didn't tear anything, but it's like, you saw his leg bend back the other way. And I get it. These guys are flying a mile a minute, but it's just like rugby, not that much different of a sport, but they took away that there, in fact, there's no helmet. make sure these guys tackle a certain way. And I feel like they need to bring that to the NFL where there's so many less injuries in rugby. I swear there are no pads. I don't feel like people realize how insane this is. They're playing the same, maybe not as fast, but they're going pretty damn fast and hitting pretty damn hard. But they don't have the same lower body injuries, right? And they don't have concussion injuries. So it really is an NFL problem with the tackling. And as soon as I saw Kyle get hit, I was like, oh, this– I thought his season was over. Like, the guy literally took out his kneecap and his leg bent the other way. So, brutal, brutal loss for a 49ers fan on a team that, I mean, you really can't afford any more injuries. Like, that's another one. It's just, they just keep adding up. So, yeah, I'm with you on Seattle. My only hesitation here is something's off with Sam Donald. And, you know, I like to think, well, it's because he came back from the injury. But we talked about it last year. He led the league in turnovers. And they totally flipped their way through the season. And we're giving him tons of love to Kubiak. So much of that was on Kubiak and Kenneth Walker. Now we've seen Kubiak go to a team, make them incredible, right? Three and one Raiders. Kenneth Walker now is number one, number two running back in all football on the Chiefs. Can't say it enough how big of a deal it is for the Seahawks team going forward where, you know, coming this year, we're like, well, the Seahawks is still the Seahawks, right? We were like, it's still a great defense. It's been noticeable those losses on offense and Sam Darnold here against this defense. He should have a good game. Like we've seen it, this team, you know, as, as bad as Bo Nix played, there was no real pass rush. Like a lot of that stuff was, I think we both agree. It was web. Like it just didn't seem like there was guys open. You just feel like you got outs coached by the 49ers team, which Hey, 49ers could do it again. They got a great, great coaching staff. So it's another great match for them, but it's like, we're both waiting for this to catch up with this Niners team. They've just been so hot. Public is just so in love with them. So, um, I'm with you. If you can get two and a half in the Seattle Seahawks, I'd grab that right now. It's not as confident if it's three and a half. That's what probably market's going to go to next. Obviously, this is a little bit like we did with Houston last week, where not that we didn't hate Houston at the three and a half, but it was just like we're picking a team here at a bad number. It usually doesn't work out for you. This feels the same here with Seattle, where it's like you need to get the best number here. This Niners team is so good, so well coached. We know Seattle has had their number the last couple seasons here, especially defensively. But Purdue's playing at such a high level, you're going to step in front of the train, get the best of the number. So, yeah, looking at this one, I totally agree with you, Chad. If we're going to have any favorite in this week, this one really jumps out to me as a favorite. We definitely want to be taking it two and a half.
01:07:52
Speaker 1: Detroit is visiting Arizona. Arizona is a four and a half point home underdog. The line was six. You talk about best of the number. The line was six on Sunday. You tagged it right away. I feel like I want to be on Arizona here, but I'm upset that we can't offer it to people at six and it won't be six or six and a half or five and a half in the contest. If you look at the matchup, these are two of the worst defenses in the league. And our theory on playing Carolina last week against Detroit was that it doesn't matter how bad Carolina's defense is. We're going to rely on Bryce Young at home, who we do believe in as an underdog. He's going to score every time he gets the ball. At least we have to believe that he will. And that's why we're betting Carolina. I don't have the same faith in Arizona being able to score and keep up with the Lions offense to say, hey, go get this, especially when we've lost a point and a half of value.
01:08:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I can't believe I'm on another favorite, but I think you're right. where the lines have moved now to being probably the right side to bet. Especially after such an embarrassing loss against Carolina. We've seen this, this pattern developed now of Campbell. They, they, they cover and then they get terrible no cover the next week. Like they've just, they've had this weird pattern now since Ben Johnson's left. And I know I think it's Paris Campbell, the, certain left or right tackle for Arizona is going to miss this game as well, which that's a big deal because Hutchinson is literally the best defender by far Detroit has. And, you know, last week against Carolina, he was in there. Bryce Young just had an incredible game. So for set, you expect him to bounce back. I mean, that Giants game, horrible game by him, right? Two really bad picks. But Detroit tends to bounce back, especially against bad teams like this. Like you expect, Detroit to get theirs. I mean, this game reminds me a lot of when we talked about a couple weeks ago with the Jets, where I remember we had a little bit of a bet on the Jets' money line, but we were just like, don't even take the spread. This feels like the type of game the Jets will win that they wouldn't cover. Now, I don't think they did cover. I think Atlanta ran it right on seven. It was a six-and-a-half spread, so Detroit did cover that game. It feels the same thing here, where Arizona, they'll lose this game, and it'll be by seven. This isn't that Ben Johnson lines where they would win this game by 20, 25 after that embarrassing loss in prime time. But I still think this offense, all the weapons they have, they should put up a ton of points against Arizona's suspect defense. And on the flip side, I think defensively, as bad as they've looked, this isn't that terrible of a matchup for Detroit's defense against this Arizona team. Yeah, shockingly, another favorite this week for us like Detroit.
01:10:36
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football, Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons. The line is two and a half. The game is in Atlanta. It's another prime time game. There's some threes out there, but it has ticked down from three and a half down to three, down to two and a half.
01:10:53
Speaker 2: I think there's a couple of reasons here.
01:10:55
Speaker 1: One, we still don't know the status of Lamar Jackson who left the game against the Titans and didn't play in the second half because of an ankle injury. And also just what the Falcons have been doing now two weeks in a row on prime time with Bijan just going off. And now they're getting another prime time game, um, Interesting spot. To me, it's a pass until I get a better sense of who's actually playing in the game.
01:11:20
Speaker 3: Not me. You've seen what I've done these last couple weeks. I've just been all in on Atlanta. It's been paying my mortgage. It's really that easy. This is how I make my money. It's just adjusting before the public adjusts to it. The public just was unsure about Pennix, just like I was, obviously, that Sunday night against Monday night against Green Bay, or Thursday night, I should say, but That Saints matchup I just knew coming in, that was going to be a really favorable matchup with the Falcons. It feels the same here. This Ravens team, it's really all about Lamar. And if you're taking away his ankle, which he needs to run, how can you not like the Falcons? As good as his arm has looked, right, and his connection with Zay Flowers and against a suspect secondary with all these injuries for the Falcons, sure, he bought a pass to the ball. But if it's a hampered Lamar, I still like the Falcons. And now if it's Snoop Huntley, even more so. Like he just– He looked totally lost trying to run that offense last week. So, yeah, hopefully you guys listened Sunday night. Three and a half was truly a gift back in this Falcons team. And it moved the exact way I thought it was going to move, where it's like, okay, you take Atlanta now. If Lamar's injuries are for real, this will easily flip to Atlanta being Falcons, being favorites. Here we're sitting there favorites now. And I'd still take the two and a half until it's at three or above. I would still take the Falcons here. And if Lamar comes back, maybe we get back to plus one and a half from the Falcons and you could take another Bet on that if you want to or buy it out of your position if you wanted to. But I'm still dug in on Atlanta here. I still think the books are still underrated and not pricing them right. So, Ryan, I'm interested in what the public does with this. Like if it's up to three and a half, maybe that's when we start to get a position on this Ravens team. But still at two and a half, I still think the right side is take the Falcons.
01:12:59
Speaker 2: Last game on the board.
01:13:01
Speaker 1: And reminder, we're doing our Sunday morning episodes live on YouTube at 11 a.m.
01:13:06
Speaker 2: So they're going a little bit later. But we're doing them live.
01:13:08
Speaker 1: If you want to hear the final five contest picks, join us live, Sharper Square YouTube, 11 a.m.
01:13:13
Speaker 2: Sundays.
01:13:14
Speaker 1: Buffalo at the Los Angeles Rams. The Buffalo Bills are two and a half point underdogs. I like Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are plus two and a half.
01:13:25
Speaker 3: I did Sunday night, but I did say, just putting a teaser because something's fishy about this line. Something wrong with Josh Allen right now, Chad. What do you think it is? I don't know. He's got a lot going on in off-field life. He's got a wife and a baby on the way. I feel like there's more.
01:13:46
Speaker 2: They have the baby. They have the baby.
01:13:48
Speaker 3: Yeah. There's a lot going on. He just seems different. That game against the Patriots, there were just so many times, even when he was going three and out, where it's just you're not used to him, them being so sloppy offensively.
01:14:02
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:14:04
Speaker 3: It was the same reason I didn't want to bet Joe Brady anything Super Bowl-wise. First-year head coaches just do not win the Super Bowl. It's so rare for them to even let alone make a Super Bowl. And it's a little worrisome where Joe Brady is running the show, and that worries me a little bit because in that game, Cook is picking up, I feel like, five, six yards per carry, but they're not feeding him. They weren't feeding him the ball. They were still trying to let Josh Allen win that game for him where they weren't taking advantage of what was working for him. And that's what I worry about here with the Rams. It's like Is it that easy? It just feels like a little too easy here. I don't get this line at all. I thought this would be a pick-em. Just because we're a couple weeks in here. The Rams haven't looked good either. They played one good game against the Giants. Every other game has been very sloppy. Matt Stafford has not looked right either, which I think is fair to say. This is one where I'm hoping I can just tease the Bills and that will be my position. I'm with you. I really wanted to be on the Bills here, but something's just off i don't get why the books are giving us two and a half they're very nice of them giving us two and a half i mean we talked about two two is such a key number here but um yeah bizarre line by the books here and maybe we're just too high on josh allen this bill's team still where it's like are we all in this team because they won week one then beat up a bad chargers team like are we hyping up this team too much well they really haven't beat up that good of teams on their schedule it's like you know houston's over four it like I get why there's so many people questioning the Spills team right now. That's why I'm trying to take a step back here because it's another game that felt very easy Sunday night where I couldn't believe we're getting two and a half on the Spills team. So interesting what the professionals do this one. As we see it right now, I'll just throw them in a teaser of the Spills team and take the easy way out, get them up to eight and a half.
01:15:46
Speaker 2: All right.
01:15:48
Speaker 1: We got a lot of things we're going to have to narrow down on Thursday. Simon says was New Orleans plus two and a half. Chad's choice. was Seattle minus two and a half. But I think we got questions about the Jets at minus two. I think we got questions about New England at minus three and a half. I think we're curious to see what the professionals say about the Chargers in Denver and certainly this game, the Bills and the Rams in Los Angeles. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume. podcast network we will be back on thursday with the games we are zeroing in on plus our survivor pick our head-to-head battle brass ball.
01:16:32
Speaker 2: So much more watch or listen on youtube.
01:16:34
Speaker 1: At sharper square like the video subscribe to the channel download us with spotify apple pods wherever you get your pods rate review subscribe leave us five stars Say whatever you want.
01:16:42
Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
01:16:46
Speaker 4: Football is a Spartan game with its qualities of sacrifice and self-denial. Game also of violent contact. And because of that violent contact, there's a personal discipline required that is seldom found any other place in this modern world.
