00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Batt. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad, No, I am Joy as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, Mike cam Padre, Professional Better Simon Hunter Ella Simon.
00:00:21
Speaker 2: So I know you're a busy man, so I'll make this quick over the weekend. As Chad knows many of you might know too. My third favorite sport to watch is poker. I love Texas, old him love poker. Right now, it's the World Chairs of Poker and I had to bring this up because it's it was such an incredible run. Basically, there's tournaments going on right now in Vegas Worldsairs of Poker, and there's this guy with the last name Hall, which Chad you might know him. He's a pretty well known guy in the DFS leagues, like he does Daily Fantasy and he had two two entries and Circus Survivor last year, so he basically was in a survivor contest when a ton of money and he's a really well known poker player, this guy, so he basically heads up against this woman who I've respected a long time named Kristin Foxen, and she's a well known professional player kind of blew up, I guess in like twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, really really really well respected. She's basically in this high roll contest playing against him heads up and took him down with pocket aces in the final hand. And you know, I think she won one point seven million. But for women player, it was a huge deal, right, probably the best women's player ever played the game. The fact that she went into this group of the best of the best. Right, it's only professionals playing. Maybe some billionaire and millionaires are in this group, but it's twenty five k to get into this tournament. It's all sharks, it's all killers. The fact that Kristin went in and won it. I think her husband, another professional player with the last same last name fox And was on when they gave her the bracelet. It was a pretty epic woe with someone that loves Texas hold him and loves that whole gambling space.
00:01:54
Speaker 1: That's really cool. That's a great story. World Shops of Poker is always awesome. It's super fun and it actually I was in Vegas when it started a couple weeks ago. Speaking of twenty five thousand dollars, that was about the get in price for games to the NBA Finals Game three at Madison Square Garden. I exaggerate, but not by much because tickets were insane. The vibe in the city was insane, The vibe in the stadium was ridiculous. I thought it was going to be impossible for the Knicks to live up to the hype and the expectation of what was happening in that stadium. So the score in the series is now two to one, and we're going to bring in our very special guest and good friend, Jason timp, host of Hoops Tonight podcast and the volume NBA Expert. But before we do that, Matt Mitchell, please come in because you got a really quick, funny story from this past weekend.
00:02:54
Speaker 3: Thank you, Chad. And I'll do this as quickly as I can because I want to get to the obviously the NBA talk. So last Saturday here in Wisconsin was a beautiful day. It was just a perfect June day here in America's heartland. So, like a lot of dads, I got to spend that beautiful Saturday in a roller skating rink in deep Ozaki County, Wisconsin, surrounded by farms in a single level cinder block room. Taken basically directly from nineteen seventy six. It was inside this roller rink. Gerald Ford is still president. It was great. I'm there for a child's birthday with my children. I love College World Series. College World Series is one of my favorite sporting events. Every year I bet a lot on it. It's absolutely exhilarating to watch. If you haven't enjoyed. We get there and I want to put the super regional on between Georgia and Mississippi. States have a lot of money on Georgia. We get in. They have one televis And to give you an idea of how dangerous roller skating is generally, it looked like there was someone in the DJ booth with like a sniper rifle shooting children. That's how many kids are getting in unbelievable looking accidents, one after the other. They're going down. Everyone looks like it's it looks like you know, I mean, Jerry Ford's president ring Cambodia. It's like that, and they're also like Cambodia. It is sweltering inside, So it's also like picture. It's also one hundred degrees in very dark. They got one TV golf channels on now it's not even a tournament. Just go. I go, okay, I gotta get this TV changed. And I look and I see a child is working. There's like a kid I learned he was fourteen. He's got one bluetooth head set in like he works at a like a bodega. And I flag him down and I go, hi, could you put on the Georgia baseball game on ESPN? And he goes, I'm really sorry. They tell me I'm not allowed to change the channel. I said, would ten dollars change that rule? And this kid says, be sure what and he disappears for a while. He finds a remote. He and I are are next to each other, shouldered a shoulder and he's like five to two shouldered a shoulder with each other, and he's changing the channel, and without looking at him, he goes, got a lot of money on this game, and I go yeah, no response, And immediately I'm like, this is my guy. Put the game on, goes and squirrels back to the remote wherever he found it, and he goes back to being the hardest working man in Nozaki County, Wisconsin. I'm watching this game. This game is insane. There were ten home runs in the game. There were eleven the game before, in this three game series, and him to win this game to move on in advance to Omaha. Dying just like all of the children within my view, putting my own wiping out, and there's home runs. They're winning and losing and winning and losing. I am dying. Their kids, by the way, are safe. They're with my wife. My son has learned to rollerblade in one hour. Incredible. His old man, I hate roller skating. I hate rollerblading. I don't do any of that stuff, despite my parents' many attempts. He comes over and he's so proud and wet with sweat, and I say, I can't believe he did a congratulations son. What do you want? He goes, I want a slushy. I know just the guy to serve it to us. So I go to this kid and I go, I'd like a large slushy please. Because it's nineteen seventy six, it was like two dollars. I go, okay, here's ten. And I winked at him. I go you can keep that, brother. He goes, wow, thanks man, I go, dude, we're all in this together. Now we're in the thick of it over in Athens, Georgia. And he just nods very knowingly because he'd been keeping his eye on it. Now too. My son gets a slushy. Everything's great. Go back to the game. It's the bottom of the eighth. George is up. They give up a maybe seventy five hundred foot home run in Mississippi State that's still in a circling Earth's atmosphere. Now they're up by one and I turn my head in absolute disgust. I look over it and I accidentally make eye contact with this kid again. And he's spraying the deodorizing spray into a pair of roller skates. And he says to me, with no emotion, that's the last thing we needed right now. Like does this? This kid absolutely rules? They go on, They win the game in the extra innings. It is is absolutely thrilling. They get the final strikeout. I'm like yes, and I now it's time to go. The party's over. I'm like yes, and I turn he ising somebody out. He's like collecting money from a parent, but he's pointing directly to his like nine o'clock right at me because maybe he was listening to the game in one of his bluetooths. I don't know, but without even making eye contact with me, he pointed directly at me so we could share one final moment. So Frank at the roller rink in Ozaki County, Wisconsin, bless your heart. You're one of America's very finest teenagers. And I look forward to one day inevitably you being my boss because that's the trajectory you're on.
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Speaker 1: I mean, that's a great story. And I love when, you know, betting brings teenagers and grown men together. The fact we know it's still nineteen seventy six in that roller rink and in that county, they got a teenager named Frank ye.
00:08:47
Speaker 3: I actually, I'm not one hundred percent sure any that actually happened or that he really exists. That's how although worldly felt, I felt like I was in kind of one of those in between you know, kind of nebulous.
00:08:58
Speaker 1: It was like a betting fever dream.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.
00:09:01
Speaker 1: It was great parenting betting fever dream.
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Speaker 3: For those of you keeping score at home, Father of the Year voting is still open, so hopefully I'll be able to search the first place. All right, good luck fellas.
00:09:11
Speaker 1: Let's get in. Let's just bring in Jason. Let's bring in Jason. We can talk about the game last night, like.
00:09:16
Speaker 4: Are they juicing the bats or something? What's up with these ten home runs in every single game?
00:09:20
Speaker 5: See my goodness, man, The College Rule Series, the men's and women's College World Series has been just completely nuts and exhilarating, as was the game last night.
00:09:32
Speaker 1: Jason. I don't know about you. I thought I thought there was no way the Spurs were going to lose, And even when they were down seven in that sort of run at the end of the first half, it felt like, how would the Spurs down seven? The Knicks haven't done anything in this game. And then they came back and they put themselves in position to win, and they pretty much controlled the game once they retook the lead. But man, that whole game was a vibe. It was just it was almost too good to be true. There's no way the Knicks could have lived up to expectations last night. No way.
00:10:04
Speaker 4: Yeah. So ironically, when I was watching the game live, I had more of a like, oh, the Knicks are going to come back and win this thing kind of feel, mainly just because of the fact that I have felt like when the Knicks really tightened the screws defensively, this Spurs offense is just too flawed and they kind of fall apart. That was how I felt in the moment. But one of the most common things that will happen to me is I'll have a certain you know, it happens about one out of every three games. I'll have a certain feel from a game watching it live, and then I'll rewatch it and I'll feel completely different about it. And this was actually one of those games. I did my film session this morning, and for those of you guys who are listening, if you want to see the clips, I have like sixty clips that I picked from the game in a film session that is on the Hoops Tonight feed. But I agree with you, Chad. I didn't think the Knicks generated many good shots at all in the game. And I thought one of the big stories of that game was even when the Knicks went up on their runs, it was kind of like insane shot making that felt somewhat unsustainable, Like there was a run in the late first half where like Ognanobi hits like a crazy, contested three in the left corner over Dylan Harper, and then Victor webbin Yama kind of closes out a little short on Brunson off the right wing, but he hits like a twenty nine foot three off of the right wing. It's just like a crazy shot. And then he like he had another one that was kind of deep off the top, and it just like throughout the game, whether it was like Josh Hart hitting threes or Ognanobi hitting some tough shots. Clarkson hit like a prayer off the top of the key late in the game, there was really a big difference in the quality of shots, where ironically for the Spurs they kind of sealed the game on a prayer. Steph Castle hit a prayer off the right wing. But mixed around that was a bunch of wide open looks, like Devin Vessel had a wide open three off the right wing that he missed, Victor women Yama had a wide open three off the left wing that he missed. Dylan Harper had three or four eye open threes that he missed. It was kind of funny that the one that went in was the crazy Steph Castle prayer at the tail end of the clock. But the general dynamic at play that's kind of started to take shape over the final three halves that I think is at least slightly concerning for the Knicks is they've just kind of reverted to this Jalen Brunson ball and I trammed in my film session today. There were like like seven or eight possessions in that game where he didn't pass the ball a single time and dribbled the clock out literally all twenty four seconds and just threw something bad up at the tail end of the clock. And Kat had his least involved game of the series to this point, and even when in the brief windows of time where he was involved, I thought the Knicks offense looked considerably better. That was that kind of run that they went on in the first half with Jordan Clarkson and Jose Alvarado on the floor alongside him with Ogan and Obi, and so I think like there is some reality to the fact that Brunson is not the advantage for the Knicks in this series. If you dig into the personnel groupings, Kat is an advantage. He's done a wonderful job on Wemby one on one They struggled and pick and roll last night, but in one on ones he continues to defend Wemby really well on the wings, like Josh hart O g a Nanobi. Their big, physical wings have given problems to the Spurs perimeter players. The weakest point in this matchup for them is Brunson is a small guard who's going to struggle to get great separation against this depth of great perimeter defenders. And so I really think that if there's if it's I think the Knicks are the better team and they should win, but they can lose this series if they continue to play the way that they did in the last three halves, which is basically just everyone stand back and let Brunson dribble the air out of the basketball. I just think it plays directly into the Spurs hands.
00:13:53
Speaker 2: Let me give you some Brunton numbers real quick chat. Yeah you want to hear the numbers all right, because I know it's right away because we talked about Brunts and Hobson show. He has eighty two points on eighty one shots. He is a minus thirteen over three games in which the Knicks have won two. He has thirteen assists thirteen turnovers on a forty percent usage rate. Yes, the Knicks have one hundred and eight offensive rating with him on the court, they have one hundred and thirty two with him off the court. Got those numbers, like, I had a buddy send me that. I was like, oh my god, this cave and I looked up it's those are all real factual data. So Jason, what can the Knicks do? Like I just gave you all those numbers? Is he Are they just going to keep beating him up, wearing him down because you'll keep getting worse and they keep throwing their bodies into him, Like you just said, any man's gonna wear it down, right, that that might have punishment on you know, every two nights. That's gonna break down a player like brunts And so I just want as soon as I saw on Ambers, I can't with you hear Jason's take on Brunson right now, because that to me is alarming.
00:14:52
Speaker 4: That forty usagerrate is insane. That's like, that's like the very peak of Luca don Chisp, like dribbling the air out of the basketball every single time. I So here's the thing. When I watched the film, one of the things that stood out to me. I think I don't want to blame Brunson entirely for this because one of the things that happened in that game, and you could feel it in the opening minutes. The Spurs came out and they picked up full court and they were in everybody's jersey, like right from the jump. And there were two early possessions, one with McHale Bridges where he dribbled up against pressure and then called for a screen. Champagne switched on to him and came in with high hands and mckaal Bridges threw the ball out of bounce. Then on the very next possession, Josh Hart has the ball, he dribbles against pressure, he picks up his dribble panics and throws the ball at a bounce. And so on early possessions you could tell McHale and Josh were really struggling to kind of just handle the ball. I think, when you speaking of personnel groupings, the one weakness personnel wise, that the that the the Knicks have compared to the thunder or excuse me, the Spurs. Sorry, it's been a wild couple of year. Yeah, the the Spurs have three on the floor most like they close the game of all three on the floor at the same time. They have three awesome guards that all can dribble the ball, like that have professionally dribbled the basketball their entire lives, that have run hundreds and hundreds of ball screens for their teams every season, and they specialize in handling pressure. Dylan Harper, Near and Fox and Steph Castle after Brunson, it's a lot of guys who are like, yeah, they can dribble, but that's not what they do. You know, like Mihale Bridges can he can put them all on the floor. They could play, but I mean he came into the league as a three and D guy, you know, like og Anobi certainly can make a playoff the bounce. He made some plays off the bounce last night, but he's Kawhi Leonard as a role player, you know, like Josh Hart again not a professional ball handler. Cat not a professional ball handler. And so one of the things that I think happened last night is the Spurs came with their hellacious we are not going down three to zero defensive effort with ball pressure and everything, and I think all the dudes panicked and they were like you do it, you do it, and it just gave the ball to Brunson. And so I think in a lot of ways it's on the Knicks to not panic under the pressure and to stay in their offense and stay in the way that they like to play. And so you know, for instance, did you guys know that Karl Anthony Towns has zero points in the fourth quarter in this series? I did not know that zero points.
00:17:36
Speaker 1: You can't be Karl Anthony Towns and disappear in the fourth quarter.
00:17:39
Speaker 4: Again, I want to blame Kat partially here in the sense that like there's a certain amount of like either go up to the top of the key and demand the basketball or go to Mike Brown and be like, hey, get me the freaking basketball, right. So, I don't want to just solely blame Brunson. I think it's everyone's fault. I think it's Brunson's fault for being like I do this. I do dribble against pressure. This is what I do best, and I'm gonna confront this problem by doing the thing that I've done my entire life. But that plays directly into San Antonio's hands. It's also Mike Brown's fault for not getting the group together and being like, hey, we have to do this instead. It's also Karl Anthony Town's fault for not advocating for himself more everyone involved is to blame. But the baseline fact is for three halves now the Knicks have completely degenerated down into Brunson Ball, and as Simon laid out with the numbers, it is simply not working. And it really hasn't worked at any point in the series because again that's the one trying to score from the guard position is how you lose to the Spurs because of the way their defense is set up. That doesn't mean Brunson can't be involved. My thing, and I called out a bunch of examples of this in the film when Brunson attacks as part of the flow, whether it's you know, Karl Anthony Towns starts the action in the post draws a second defender now we're in rotation, or it's bruntson screens for somebody. I love when guards like him screen for people because they always bring two to them and that person has an opportunity to turn the corner. However it is, Brunson needs to be involved. They're not winning this series without bruntson averaging you know, twenty twenty five points a game, but his buckets need to come more in the flow and the team needs to emphasize more of an more of breaking the defensive down a defense down incrementally through multiple attacks rather than Jalen Brunson dribbling they are out of the basketball and taking a bad shot at the end of the shot clock. Because like Frankly, like I do believe if both teams are playing at their very best defensively, meaning like both teams are bringing all the force, playing super hard, that the Knicks have more ways to score. They do, but it doesn't matter if they don't actually utilize all those ways to score if they play that straight up hero with Brunson. The bottom line is is like look at the way that the Spurs won that game, Like Harper had a stretch in the first half, and then Steph Castle had a stretch in the first half and had a big stretch late in the game. Darren Fox hits the shot that ice is the game. There's just they have just more guys who can do it, so they're not going to fatigue and they have more advantages that they can go after. So like I just think it's really important for the Knicks to kind of remember how they got here and not kind of degenerate to how they ended up losing in previous playoff runs.
00:20:29
Speaker 1: So on the spur side of it, it feels to me there's something freaky going on whenever Wemby is out of the game. Forget about what they're incapable of doing defensively, and how that's when the lanes open up and the drives and the wings and even cat are able to get to the basket. It almost feels like they start shooting worse at the other end of the floor too. And I couldn't decide last night. I was talking to my about this, Is it a coincidence? Is there something mechanical and the way the offensive structured? But they're getting open looks you talked about you know, Dyan Harper missed a bunch of open looks.
00:21:11
Speaker 4: And.
00:21:13
Speaker 1: You know Johnson could not hit any shots like the six man of the year even though he was a plus fourteen, which was shocking when I saw that this morning, because it looked like he was the reason why they might lose that game. Okay, why does their offense start to crater so much Winby is out, even when they're getting open, looks like they're just they they're just missing.
00:21:38
Speaker 4: So there's something to be said. I think about like the difference between, you know, how confident you feel as a group when your stars on the floor versus when they're not. I think like the easiest way that that manifest really is on the other end of the floor, Like the cornet groups are just getting shredded. Like when Cornett is on the floor, they're getting outscored by twenty points per one hundred possessions. They have a one seventeen defensive rating in those groups, which is really bad, especially for this level of basketball. And so I think part of it is like if they're scoring every time, it can cause a certain additional pressure on shot making on the other end of the floor. Like to put it very simply, during the cornet groups, that's when MSG is on fire. Yeah, that's because that's when they're going on runs on the offensive end. I do think that there is something to be said about, Like, you know, the most underrated part of what Wenby brings offensively is just his role gravity. When he rolls to the basket, everyone follows him. There is a play in the second half of this game that I thought was really telling. He's on the left wing, Mitchell Robinson's guarding him, Devin Vessel sets a backscreen for him. Mitchell Robinson gets caught on the backscreen. Wemby rolls and is open at the basket. Steph Castle throws a pass over the top that's a little too high. Wemby catches it almost behind the backboard, and he goes back up and he misses a layup.
00:22:59
Speaker 3: On play.
00:23:01
Speaker 4: Three knicks come flying at him when he catches the ball in the lob and when he misses the layup, and so as a result, when he misses, Dylan Harper just comes right in front of the rim and grabs his ball and puts it back in the basket with no resistance because again Wenby drew three defenders in when he rolled to the basket. I've shared this stat on my show before. I don't think i've shared it here before, but this season the Spurs actually generated the most corner threes in the history of NBA basketball, and a big part of that was the simple dynamic. When Wenby rolls to the basket, there's just a lot of defenders that just coalesce around him, and so that's one of the big reasons I think Wemby has clearly proven himself to be the best player in the world in this playoff run. He's averaging twenty nine points and ten rebounds with five stocks per game in the steals plus blocks in this series on fifty nine percent true shooting in a series where no one's efficient, he's efficient. And the simple fact is when he rolls to the basket, good stuff happens even when he's not doing anything else offensively. Last night was actually a game where they scored on the role pretty effectively. Wemby scored twelve points on rolls to the rim last night. That was the most he scored on roles to the rim in the entire postseason to this point. I think the Guards deserve some credit for that. There's also some really weird plays early in the game where Kat was bizarrely like kind of going way out to the level of screens and letting Wemby roll behind him. Kind of reminded me of Game one against Cleveland where they were randomly doubling him with him a lot. So there's some stuff that the Knicks can clean up, for sure. But I do think that Victor webin Yama, there's a certain baseline shot quality you get with him. You kind of just have to hope guys miss.
00:24:37
Speaker 1: All Right, that's a really good point about Wemby. And if the other team keeps scoring and you miss one or two shots, that's when the lead start to expand the margin for error is just so much less. You kind of have to be perfect offensively because you're not going to be perfect defensively. Really interesting point on that. All right, So Game four Finals tomorrow night at eight thirty pm Eastern. UH Spurs are it looks like one and a half point underdogs. The total is two sixteen and a half Spurs plus one ten on the money line Nicks minus one twenty five. I gotta tell you, I'm totally torn what my instinct is on this. I was blown away by the atmosphere at MSG even watching it on television, and I feel like it was almost too much. Like I said this at the top of the show, there's no way the Knicks were going to be able to match that kind of energy. I feel like, now they've seen it, I think the edge goes back to the Knicks. Simon. I want to get Jason's analysis, but as a better what do you think of my instincts.
00:25:51
Speaker 2: It could I would say that they were totally unphazed right the Spurs. It just felt like I couldn't believe how they bounce back after the way the first off ended, right because they went after Brunts and the Knicks toy ride around Brunson, and they came out and just totally dominated that second half. That's for his team, and just you know, as much as props as we're giving to the Madison Square guard on the crowd, you have talked a little bit about her, right this this whole sense of it's such a big moment, such a big build up. You know, the fans themselves seemed exhausting that.
00:26:24
Speaker 3: Second half, like it got quiet.
00:26:27
Speaker 2: I did, so I am excited to see what it's be a little different because you've already seen the price drop in half. Right, They're not gonna be able to clinch here at home in Game four. Maybe I'll let some more common fans back in into the building. Maybe guys won't be selling their tickets, you know, the season ticket holders like they were, because you know, I have a buddyho's a ticket holder, he is not, you know, A he does well, but not anywhere compared to these other people. That one game paid for his whole season. So that Game three, you know, he bit the bull because he thought they were gonna win that and he was obviously gonna go to the close that game. In game four, I think you canet all lot of fans. I can back in stay for this one. But it's like we keep talking about, it's all about the adjustments and that's why I love basketball the chess match that it is. And I want to get Jason's here because I have no idea where to go either. I really don't you. I honestly want to bet the Knicks, but it feels like I'm walking right into it because I just don't get the line. The line feels very short. So where you at Jason with this game here?
00:27:21
Speaker 4: So I do think that I like the nixt side of this line. The game that I would point to as an example is Game five and Okac, where when the Spurs backs were against the wall, like we're going to lose the series if we lose this game. In Game seven, they really strangled Okac's offense with an incredible defensive effort but in game five, when it kind of was like we're guaranteed a game at home no matter what. In Game six, okay, see, just kind of outplayed them from start to finish in terms of that that force battle that I always talk about, like basically just physic force. Who's winning at the point of attack, who's winning on the glass, who's winning the fifty to fifty balls, who's just playing with more energy? And in that game, I remember the Game five, you could tell the dead giveaway was okce role players kept just driving to the basket like Alex Cruzo is driving to the basket like crazy. Ludort was driving the basket like crazy. A lot of guys who struggled in Game seven. So I think there's a version. I think if the Spurs win this series, the way it probably goes is they drop game three or game four, excuse me, and then they win Game five at home, and then in game six, when they absolutely have to win in the garden again, they throw a crazy defensive punch and they pull it out and force a Game seven. The adjustments that are on the table that are worth mentioning here. I've been calling for this since my series preview, but one of the things that they did at the tail end of the game was they bench Champennie and they played Dylan Harper alongside the other two guards with Devin Vessel. And what that does is it forces Jalen bruns And to guard a shooter someone excuse me, not a shooter, a more dynamic offensive player, because Champenny is a shooter, but Devin Vessel is much more of like a can put the ball on the floor, make things happen, shoot on the move, that sort of thing. So down the stretch of the game, they were attacking Brunson pretty relentlessly and getting quite a few good looks. Ironically, the bad possessions were the ones they scored. They had that play where we talked about where Steph Castle hits the prayer, and then Darren Fox the shot that he hit that iced the game. Wemby was trying to go set a screen and Kat was just mauling him out twenty five feet from the basket and was not even letting him go set the screen. So then it turned into Fox had no choice but late clock just to attack O G and Andobi one on one, and he just hit a really nice shot, but down the stretch, they got a lot of really good looks one for Vessel, multiple for Harper, one for Wemby that came out of them essentially just attacking Jalen Brunson with a four guard lineup, and so I do think that that's kind of the direction that the Spurs will go as the series progresses more. The other difference there that's important to mention is Harper is faster than Champennie. He's not bigger, but he's faster, and that makes them more capable of rotating, like when the Knicks get them into those driving kick sequences. They're just faster so they can cover more ground and fly around in rotation. So that's the big adjustment on the Spurs side. Really, the big adjustment on the Knick side is going to be offensive approach. I think what we're going to see in Game four is just a lot less of Brunson. I think that Mike Brown is going to hammer home that they need to play with more variety and that they need to play through Cat more and that they need to play through Og and McHale Moore, and I think we'll see a lot more variety on that front. It's more just do I think the Spurs can win Game four? Yes, it's more just that they don't have to and it's impossible to manufacture urgency. And that's where I think, Like, if there's a game that the Knicks get at home in a version of this series that the Spurs win, it would be Game four anyway, So I think that's the game that I would be on the Knick side.
00:31:00
Speaker 1: I mean, look, you don't want to go down three to one either. It's not like history serves great evidence of what happens when you go down three to one. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. The NBA Finals are here, the lights are brighter, the pressure is higher, and every possession can define a legacy. Despite my feelings about New York fans, I could not be more excited about this matchup. Will New York and its title drought? Will San Antonio hang another championship banner? However you see it playing out, head over to hard Rock Bet and turn your picks into a payday. The season is almost over, so shoot your shot while you can and same game parlays let you stack your picks for an even bigger payout. Try your first bet on hard Rock Bet Today and you can score one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollars better and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. But the welcome offer is just the tip. Hard Rock Bet as new promos daily and sure Hardrock Bet. Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only legal sports book, but you don't have to be in Florida as to join the party. Hard Rock Bet is also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, in Michigan, more states on the way. Download the hard Rock Bet at Today and let's get the party started. Payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states, must be twenty one or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight three three playwise. In Indiana, if you were something you know as a gambling problem and wants to help, call one eight hundred nine with it. In Arizona, Ohio, and Virginia, call one eight hundred mile recent that's that gambling problem, called one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and Tennessee. So to me, there is still the urgency Devil's advocate on everything we all just said about slightly leading the Knicks. The Spurs may have figured something out, and this is the second game in a row where they were able to get very physical with Jalen Brunson defensively, no matter who was guarding him right and whether it was Champagnee, whether it was Dylan Harper, whether it was Castle, even Deeran Fox a little bit like those were the four primary defenders on Jalen Brunson. Three of those guys could be very physical, and they were vertical when they were defending, and they weren't handsy. They were just moving their feet, getting over picks, staying in front of him. They weren't getting called for files last night, just as they weren't called for foules in game two. Defensively, they seem to have figured something out. Agree with you on Harper, Fox and Castles different lineup than I think. They've only played like twelve minutes together through the playoffs at this point until last night. Then maybe they unlock something serious. Price right now plus one fifty for the Spurs open at minus two hundred Nicks. We're plus one seventy minus one seventy before game one now minus I'm sorry, they're plus one seventy before game one now minus one eighty Spurs and seven.
00:34:33
Speaker 4: There's this really weird dynamic where the home team keeps losing Game seven. I'm not sure if you guys have noticed that, but I I keep coming back to this. I think the margins are small, like this is a very very close series, and the Spurs are just like kind of mistake prone, Like Steph Castle will just shove ogn and Obi on a three for no reason. It's send it to the line, or like what in the world was Keldon Johnson doing when he shoved Mitchel Robinson into wem beyond that three that wiped out three points. We talked about the mistakes at the end of Game four. I just think, like, I don't think the Spurs can win this series just with their defense. That's the main difference. They won the Thunder series pretty much just with their defense. This Knicks offense brings a certain amount of firepower to the table to where the Spurs have to almost like keep up with them for phases of the game, and that I think makes it so that this margin is just really small. And I just think that winning again four out of five to end a series after going down two to h is just really really difficult for a young team. When the margins are going to be small, the games are going to be close. Every one of our three games is a clutch time at the end where the score has been within five with less than five minutes left. I think that's an advantage to the Knicks over the course of the series. So I want to be clear, I very much think the Spurs can win this. I think we'd be foolish to count them out. We talked about this last week, but like, this is not the we're excited to go to Cabo group. This is the this is the we're playing basketball the day after the finals. Group like this is a group of young kids who, like is not interested in their season ending by any stretch of the imagination. Like the Spurs, do not count them out. But the Knicks have real advantages. They have adjustments that they can make. They only need to win two of the next four games, and they're gonna have two of those games at MSG, and they're older, more experience. I still think the Knicks are the safer bet at this point.
00:36:35
Speaker 1: Nix and five plus three fifty nix and six plus two ten nix and seven plus five fifty Spurs and six plus seven hundred Spurs and seven plus five fifty signon. If you're making a serious bet exact winner and games. What are you betting on right now?
00:37:01
Speaker 2: This is just as a fan. I think most professionals I know are still dug in pretty much on the Knicks. I just I think Wemby's having a moment here, I really do. I think every game you see him gaming gaining confidence, and you know, are we gonna get that Wemby forty point game tomorrow night? I don't know, But I just love the way it's spaced out where they have this game Wednesday and then it's another three day break, and then if they play Saturday, it's another three day break Tuesday.
00:37:24
Speaker 3: Like, I don't know why.
00:37:25
Speaker 2: I think these things kind of benefit this this Spurs team, and I look at this game and I just think, wemby this whole team, this whole Spurs team has taken us personality of that they're not again people are saying they're playing dirty. This to me is playoff basketball. It's mental, it's physical, and that's that's why I want to see, Like people are bitching about the refs. That was like, that's my dream scenario that way the refs rep that game where it's like we're letting them play, Like we're letting these grown men play this game, right, no eye gougeous, nothing dirty like that. I mean the one brunt to play was dirty, right, kind of hit the back of his head on the who forward for that. Stuff does freak me out a little bit, but overall, it's like that's the game, right. That's why most guys aren't six feet tall in this league, right, Steph Curry, it's sixty three looks small for a reason. It's just these growing men, these big bodies flying around so I'm I'm, I'm, I'm flipping here to the Spurs. I think Spurs and seven feels like that's that's fun value for me to bet right now. So I'm gonna I'm gonna take a little on that, but I'll be upfront. I did lose my sweet bet on the Knicks, which it was a fun ride. I'm not gonna lie. I was feeling pretty good and I still have my Cat MVP bet, so I I do think they're gonna make an adjustment where Cat will get more touches. Just look at the efficiency numbers when the offense runs through Cat. The Knicks are so good in this series, they have those numbers. We're not We're not breaking user right. They have nerds in the building. They're gonna give them that data. So we'll see if Mike Brown makes the adjustments and they get cawdboard touches and have zero points. That Jason gimmas that stat about him in the fourth quarter is alarming because to me, we've talked about he's been, to me, their best player, not just running offense run, but defensively. What he's done the wemby so really interesting. They just have not gun them touches in the fourth quarter.
00:39:05
Speaker 1: MVP ads for Kat down to eight to one. Jason, I still like it.
00:39:10
Speaker 4: I think the uh I think people are understanding what's happening with Brunson. I think it's become officially a storyline now that it's like, Oh, the Knicks are the better team, but is Brunson going to shoot them out of the series. That's become like a legitimate storyline now. So like, I still like the value on Kat. They're eight to one plus, Like, let's just put it this way. If Kat has a monster Game four to put him up three to one, then that's the storyline is Cat has dominated the NBA Finals and they're up three one. So I still like that eight to one line there for Kat.
00:39:44
Speaker 1: How quickly the storylines change from everybody is better than Jalen Brunson until it's time to be better than Jalen Brunson to Jalen Brunson is killing the Knicks chances to win an NBA title. It is a fit fickle business. Jason, give us the last word here. Nix and five, Nix and six Nixon.
00:40:12
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go nix and six. I think that more than anything ever, I don't think home court matters much in this series at all. Either way, I think that if the Spurs win Game five, it'll be more to do with just them being their backs against the wall in a three to one type of series where it's difficult to match force, and then I think, just MSG just party. In Game six, we're celebrating the trophy.
00:40:37
Speaker 3: I do wonder.
00:40:39
Speaker 1: This is not a political statement. I do wonder how much people having to get there four hours early, how much the atmosphere around the garden changing yesterday because they had to block off the perimeter as large as they did, impacting the watch party right next to the garden, impacting the surrounding area, area, bars, sort of atmosphere. I feel like that turned the the the vibe from something that was static, ecstatic and joyful to something that was a little bit more tense. And I wonder if that had an impact. And now that they get into Game four, they can go back to the joyful vibe of the Knicks being New York's team. So we'll see, we'll see. Did I say game five, I mean game four? Listen Jason as always great stuff, that's our show. This has been Sharper Square Part of the Volume podcast network watch or listen on YouTube a sharper square like this video. Subscribe to the channel Downalds from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift that Thursday talking World Cup.
00:41:54
Speaker 3: Love you all right, Dick.
00:41:57
Speaker 2: The reason there's a delay in the game is that some idiot I was throwing a bottle of booze on the floor.
00:42:01
Speaker 4: The floor is covered with glass.
00:42:03
Speaker 1: We are not supposed to.
00:42:04
Speaker 2: Take editorial comments here, but
00:42:06
Speaker 3: That is about the stupidest thing you can do.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Batt. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad, No, I am Joy as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, Mike cam Padre, Professional Better Simon Hunter Ella Simon.
00:00:21
Speaker 2: So I know you're a busy man, so I'll make this quick over the weekend. As Chad knows many of you might know too. My third favorite sport to watch is poker. I love Texas, old him love poker. Right now, it's the World Chairs of Poker and I had to bring this up because it's it was such an incredible run. Basically, there's tournaments going on right now in Vegas Worldsairs of Poker, and there's this guy with the last name Hall, which Chad you might know him. He's a pretty well known guy in the DFS leagues, like he does Daily Fantasy and he had two two entries and Circus Survivor last year, so he basically was in a survivor contest when a ton of money and he's a really well known poker player, this guy, so he basically heads up against this woman who I've respected a long time named Kristin Foxen, and she's a well known professional player kind of blew up, I guess in like twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, really really really well respected. She's basically in this high roll contest playing against him heads up and took him down with pocket aces in the final hand. And you know, I think she won one point seven million. But for women player, it was a huge deal, right, probably the best women's player ever played the game. The fact that she went into this group of the best of the best. Right, it's only professionals playing. Maybe some billionaire and millionaires are in this group, but it's twenty five k to get into this tournament. It's all sharks, it's all killers. The fact that Kristin went in and won it. I think her husband, another professional player with the last same last name fox And was on when they gave her the bracelet. It was a pretty epic woe with someone that loves Texas hold him and loves that whole gambling space.
00:01:54
Speaker 1: That's really cool. That's a great story. World Shops of Poker is always awesome. It's super fun and it actually I was in Vegas when it started a couple weeks ago. Speaking of twenty five thousand dollars, that was about the get in price for games to the NBA Finals Game three at Madison Square Garden. I exaggerate, but not by much because tickets were insane. The vibe in the city was insane, The vibe in the stadium was ridiculous. I thought it was going to be impossible for the Knicks to live up to the hype and the expectation of what was happening in that stadium. So the score in the series is now two to one, and we're going to bring in our very special guest and good friend, Jason timp, host of Hoops Tonight podcast and the volume NBA Expert. But before we do that, Matt Mitchell, please come in because you got a really quick, funny story from this past weekend.
00:02:54
Speaker 3: Thank you, Chad. And I'll do this as quickly as I can because I want to get to the obviously the NBA talk. So last Saturday here in Wisconsin was a beautiful day. It was just a perfect June day here in America's heartland. So, like a lot of dads, I got to spend that beautiful Saturday in a roller skating rink in deep Ozaki County, Wisconsin, surrounded by farms in a single level cinder block room. Taken basically directly from nineteen seventy six. It was inside this roller rink. Gerald Ford is still president. It was great. I'm there for a child's birthday with my children. I love College World Series. College World Series is one of my favorite sporting events. Every year I bet a lot on it. It's absolutely exhilarating to watch. If you haven't enjoyed. We get there and I want to put the super regional on between Georgia and Mississippi. States have a lot of money on Georgia. We get in. They have one televis And to give you an idea of how dangerous roller skating is generally, it looked like there was someone in the DJ booth with like a sniper rifle shooting children. That's how many kids are getting in unbelievable looking accidents, one after the other. They're going down. Everyone looks like it's it looks like you know, I mean, Jerry Ford's president ring Cambodia. It's like that, and they're also like Cambodia. It is sweltering inside, So it's also like picture. It's also one hundred degrees in very dark. They got one TV golf channels on now it's not even a tournament. Just go. I go, okay, I gotta get this TV changed. And I look and I see a child is working. There's like a kid I learned he was fourteen. He's got one bluetooth head set in like he works at a like a bodega. And I flag him down and I go, hi, could you put on the Georgia baseball game on ESPN? And he goes, I'm really sorry. They tell me I'm not allowed to change the channel. I said, would ten dollars change that rule? And this kid says, be sure what and he disappears for a while. He finds a remote. He and I are are next to each other, shouldered a shoulder and he's like five to two shouldered a shoulder with each other, and he's changing the channel, and without looking at him, he goes, got a lot of money on this game, and I go yeah, no response, And immediately I'm like, this is my guy. Put the game on, goes and squirrels back to the remote wherever he found it, and he goes back to being the hardest working man in Nozaki County, Wisconsin. I'm watching this game. This game is insane. There were ten home runs in the game. There were eleven the game before, in this three game series, and him to win this game to move on in advance to Omaha. Dying just like all of the children within my view, putting my own wiping out, and there's home runs. They're winning and losing and winning and losing. I am dying. Their kids, by the way, are safe. They're with my wife. My son has learned to rollerblade in one hour. Incredible. His old man, I hate roller skating. I hate rollerblading. I don't do any of that stuff, despite my parents' many attempts. He comes over and he's so proud and wet with sweat, and I say, I can't believe he did a congratulations son. What do you want? He goes, I want a slushy. I know just the guy to serve it to us. So I go to this kid and I go, I'd like a large slushy please. Because it's nineteen seventy six, it was like two dollars. I go, okay, here's ten. And I winked at him. I go you can keep that, brother. He goes, wow, thanks man, I go, dude, we're all in this together. Now we're in the thick of it over in Athens, Georgia. And he just nods very knowingly because he'd been keeping his eye on it. Now too. My son gets a slushy. Everything's great. Go back to the game. It's the bottom of the eighth. George is up. They give up a maybe seventy five hundred foot home run in Mississippi State that's still in a circling Earth's atmosphere. Now they're up by one and I turn my head in absolute disgust. I look over it and I accidentally make eye contact with this kid again. And he's spraying the deodorizing spray into a pair of roller skates. And he says to me, with no emotion, that's the last thing we needed right now. Like does this? This kid absolutely rules? They go on, They win the game in the extra innings. It is is absolutely thrilling. They get the final strikeout. I'm like yes, and I now it's time to go. The party's over. I'm like yes, and I turn he ising somebody out. He's like collecting money from a parent, but he's pointing directly to his like nine o'clock right at me because maybe he was listening to the game in one of his bluetooths. I don't know, but without even making eye contact with me, he pointed directly at me so we could share one final moment. So Frank at the roller rink in Ozaki County, Wisconsin, bless your heart. You're one of America's very finest teenagers. And I look forward to one day inevitably you being my boss because that's the trajectory you're on.
00:08:32
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a great story. And I love when, you know, betting brings teenagers and grown men together. The fact we know it's still nineteen seventy six in that roller rink and in that county, they got a teenager named Frank ye.
00:08:47
Speaker 3: I actually, I'm not one hundred percent sure any that actually happened or that he really exists. That's how although worldly felt, I felt like I was in kind of one of those in between you know, kind of nebulous.
00:08:58
Speaker 1: It was like a betting fever dream.
00:09:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.
00:09:01
Speaker 1: It was great parenting betting fever dream.
00:09:03
Speaker 3: For those of you keeping score at home, Father of the Year voting is still open, so hopefully I'll be able to search the first place. All right, good luck fellas.
00:09:11
Speaker 1: Let's get in. Let's just bring in Jason. Let's bring in Jason. We can talk about the game last night, like.
00:09:16
Speaker 4: Are they juicing the bats or something? What's up with these ten home runs in every single game?
00:09:20
Speaker 5: See my goodness, man, The College Rule Series, the men's and women's College World Series has been just completely nuts and exhilarating, as was the game last night.
00:09:32
Speaker 1: Jason. I don't know about you. I thought I thought there was no way the Spurs were going to lose, And even when they were down seven in that sort of run at the end of the first half, it felt like, how would the Spurs down seven? The Knicks haven't done anything in this game. And then they came back and they put themselves in position to win, and they pretty much controlled the game once they retook the lead. But man, that whole game was a vibe. It was just it was almost too good to be true. There's no way the Knicks could have lived up to expectations last night. No way.
00:10:04
Speaker 4: Yeah. So ironically, when I was watching the game live, I had more of a like, oh, the Knicks are going to come back and win this thing kind of feel, mainly just because of the fact that I have felt like when the Knicks really tightened the screws defensively, this Spurs offense is just too flawed and they kind of fall apart. That was how I felt in the moment. But one of the most common things that will happen to me is I'll have a certain you know, it happens about one out of every three games. I'll have a certain feel from a game watching it live, and then I'll rewatch it and I'll feel completely different about it. And this was actually one of those games. I did my film session this morning, and for those of you guys who are listening, if you want to see the clips, I have like sixty clips that I picked from the game in a film session that is on the Hoops Tonight feed. But I agree with you, Chad. I didn't think the Knicks generated many good shots at all in the game. And I thought one of the big stories of that game was even when the Knicks went up on their runs, it was kind of like insane shot making that felt somewhat unsustainable, Like there was a run in the late first half where like Ognanobi hits like a crazy, contested three in the left corner over Dylan Harper, and then Victor webbin Yama kind of closes out a little short on Brunson off the right wing, but he hits like a twenty nine foot three off of the right wing. It's just like a crazy shot. And then he like he had another one that was kind of deep off the top, and it just like throughout the game, whether it was like Josh Hart hitting threes or Ognanobi hitting some tough shots. Clarkson hit like a prayer off the top of the key late in the game, there was really a big difference in the quality of shots, where ironically for the Spurs they kind of sealed the game on a prayer. Steph Castle hit a prayer off the right wing. But mixed around that was a bunch of wide open looks, like Devin Vessel had a wide open three off the right wing that he missed, Victor women Yama had a wide open three off the left wing that he missed. Dylan Harper had three or four eye open threes that he missed. It was kind of funny that the one that went in was the crazy Steph Castle prayer at the tail end of the clock. But the general dynamic at play that's kind of started to take shape over the final three halves that I think is at least slightly concerning for the Knicks is they've just kind of reverted to this Jalen Brunson ball and I trammed in my film session today. There were like like seven or eight possessions in that game where he didn't pass the ball a single time and dribbled the clock out literally all twenty four seconds and just threw something bad up at the tail end of the clock. And Kat had his least involved game of the series to this point, and even when in the brief windows of time where he was involved, I thought the Knicks offense looked considerably better. That was that kind of run that they went on in the first half with Jordan Clarkson and Jose Alvarado on the floor alongside him with Ogan and Obi, and so I think like there is some reality to the fact that Brunson is not the advantage for the Knicks in this series. If you dig into the personnel groupings, Kat is an advantage. He's done a wonderful job on Wemby one on one They struggled and pick and roll last night, but in one on ones he continues to defend Wemby really well on the wings, like Josh hart O g a Nanobi. Their big, physical wings have given problems to the Spurs perimeter players. The weakest point in this matchup for them is Brunson is a small guard who's going to struggle to get great separation against this depth of great perimeter defenders. And so I really think that if there's if it's I think the Knicks are the better team and they should win, but they can lose this series if they continue to play the way that they did in the last three halves, which is basically just everyone stand back and let Brunson dribble the air out of the basketball. I just think it plays directly into the Spurs hands.
00:13:53
Speaker 2: Let me give you some Brunton numbers real quick chat. Yeah you want to hear the numbers all right, because I know it's right away because we talked about Brunts and Hobson show. He has eighty two points on eighty one shots. He is a minus thirteen over three games in which the Knicks have won two. He has thirteen assists thirteen turnovers on a forty percent usage rate. Yes, the Knicks have one hundred and eight offensive rating with him on the court, they have one hundred and thirty two with him off the court. Got those numbers, like, I had a buddy send me that. I was like, oh my god, this cave and I looked up it's those are all real factual data. So Jason, what can the Knicks do? Like I just gave you all those numbers? Is he Are they just going to keep beating him up, wearing him down because you'll keep getting worse and they keep throwing their bodies into him, Like you just said, any man's gonna wear it down, right, that that might have punishment on you know, every two nights. That's gonna break down a player like brunts And so I just want as soon as I saw on Ambers, I can't with you hear Jason's take on Brunson right now, because that to me is alarming.
00:14:52
Speaker 4: That forty usagerrate is insane. That's like, that's like the very peak of Luca don Chisp, like dribbling the air out of the basketball every single time. I So here's the thing. When I watched the film, one of the things that stood out to me. I think I don't want to blame Brunson entirely for this because one of the things that happened in that game, and you could feel it in the opening minutes. The Spurs came out and they picked up full court and they were in everybody's jersey, like right from the jump. And there were two early possessions, one with McHale Bridges where he dribbled up against pressure and then called for a screen. Champagne switched on to him and came in with high hands and mckaal Bridges threw the ball out of bounce. Then on the very next possession, Josh Hart has the ball, he dribbles against pressure, he picks up his dribble panics and throws the ball at a bounce. And so on early possessions you could tell McHale and Josh were really struggling to kind of just handle the ball. I think, when you speaking of personnel groupings, the one weakness personnel wise, that the that the the Knicks have compared to the thunder or excuse me, the Spurs. Sorry, it's been a wild couple of year. Yeah, the the Spurs have three on the floor most like they close the game of all three on the floor at the same time. They have three awesome guards that all can dribble the ball, like that have professionally dribbled the basketball their entire lives, that have run hundreds and hundreds of ball screens for their teams every season, and they specialize in handling pressure. Dylan Harper, Near and Fox and Steph Castle after Brunson, it's a lot of guys who are like, yeah, they can dribble, but that's not what they do. You know, like Mihale Bridges can he can put them all on the floor. They could play, but I mean he came into the league as a three and D guy, you know, like og Anobi certainly can make a playoff the bounce. He made some plays off the bounce last night, but he's Kawhi Leonard as a role player, you know, like Josh Hart again not a professional ball handler. Cat not a professional ball handler. And so one of the things that I think happened last night is the Spurs came with their hellacious we are not going down three to zero defensive effort with ball pressure and everything, and I think all the dudes panicked and they were like you do it, you do it, and it just gave the ball to Brunson. And so I think in a lot of ways it's on the Knicks to not panic under the pressure and to stay in their offense and stay in the way that they like to play. And so you know, for instance, did you guys know that Karl Anthony Towns has zero points in the fourth quarter in this series? I did not know that zero points.
00:17:36
Speaker 1: You can't be Karl Anthony Towns and disappear in the fourth quarter.
00:17:39
Speaker 4: Again, I want to blame Kat partially here in the sense that like there's a certain amount of like either go up to the top of the key and demand the basketball or go to Mike Brown and be like, hey, get me the freaking basketball, right. So, I don't want to just solely blame Brunson. I think it's everyone's fault. I think it's Brunson's fault for being like I do this. I do dribble against pressure. This is what I do best, and I'm gonna confront this problem by doing the thing that I've done my entire life. But that plays directly into San Antonio's hands. It's also Mike Brown's fault for not getting the group together and being like, hey, we have to do this instead. It's also Karl Anthony Town's fault for not advocating for himself more everyone involved is to blame. But the baseline fact is for three halves now the Knicks have completely degenerated down into Brunson Ball, and as Simon laid out with the numbers, it is simply not working. And it really hasn't worked at any point in the series because again that's the one trying to score from the guard position is how you lose to the Spurs because of the way their defense is set up. That doesn't mean Brunson can't be involved. My thing, and I called out a bunch of examples of this in the film when Brunson attacks as part of the flow, whether it's you know, Karl Anthony Towns starts the action in the post draws a second defender now we're in rotation, or it's bruntson screens for somebody. I love when guards like him screen for people because they always bring two to them and that person has an opportunity to turn the corner. However it is, Brunson needs to be involved. They're not winning this series without bruntson averaging you know, twenty twenty five points a game, but his buckets need to come more in the flow and the team needs to emphasize more of an more of breaking the defensive down a defense down incrementally through multiple attacks rather than Jalen Brunson dribbling they are out of the basketball and taking a bad shot at the end of the shot clock. Because like Frankly, like I do believe if both teams are playing at their very best defensively, meaning like both teams are bringing all the force, playing super hard, that the Knicks have more ways to score. They do, but it doesn't matter if they don't actually utilize all those ways to score if they play that straight up hero with Brunson. The bottom line is is like look at the way that the Spurs won that game, Like Harper had a stretch in the first half, and then Steph Castle had a stretch in the first half and had a big stretch late in the game. Darren Fox hits the shot that ice is the game. There's just they have just more guys who can do it, so they're not going to fatigue and they have more advantages that they can go after. So like I just think it's really important for the Knicks to kind of remember how they got here and not kind of degenerate to how they ended up losing in previous playoff runs.
00:20:29
Speaker 1: So on the spur side of it, it feels to me there's something freaky going on whenever Wemby is out of the game. Forget about what they're incapable of doing defensively, and how that's when the lanes open up and the drives and the wings and even cat are able to get to the basket. It almost feels like they start shooting worse at the other end of the floor too. And I couldn't decide last night. I was talking to my about this, Is it a coincidence? Is there something mechanical and the way the offensive structured? But they're getting open looks you talked about you know, Dyan Harper missed a bunch of open looks.
00:21:11
Speaker 4: And.
00:21:13
Speaker 1: You know Johnson could not hit any shots like the six man of the year even though he was a plus fourteen, which was shocking when I saw that this morning, because it looked like he was the reason why they might lose that game. Okay, why does their offense start to crater so much Winby is out, even when they're getting open, looks like they're just they they're just missing.
00:21:38
Speaker 4: So there's something to be said. I think about like the difference between, you know, how confident you feel as a group when your stars on the floor versus when they're not. I think like the easiest way that that manifest really is on the other end of the floor, Like the cornet groups are just getting shredded. Like when Cornett is on the floor, they're getting outscored by twenty points per one hundred possessions. They have a one seventeen defensive rating in those groups, which is really bad, especially for this level of basketball. And so I think part of it is like if they're scoring every time, it can cause a certain additional pressure on shot making on the other end of the floor. Like to put it very simply, during the cornet groups, that's when MSG is on fire. Yeah, that's because that's when they're going on runs on the offensive end. I do think that there is something to be said about, Like, you know, the most underrated part of what Wenby brings offensively is just his role gravity. When he rolls to the basket, everyone follows him. There is a play in the second half of this game that I thought was really telling. He's on the left wing, Mitchell Robinson's guarding him, Devin Vessel sets a backscreen for him. Mitchell Robinson gets caught on the backscreen. Wemby rolls and is open at the basket. Steph Castle throws a pass over the top that's a little too high. Wemby catches it almost behind the backboard, and he goes back up and he misses a layup.
00:22:59
Speaker 3: On play.
00:23:01
Speaker 4: Three knicks come flying at him when he catches the ball in the lob and when he misses the layup, and so as a result, when he misses, Dylan Harper just comes right in front of the rim and grabs his ball and puts it back in the basket with no resistance because again Wenby drew three defenders in when he rolled to the basket. I've shared this stat on my show before. I don't think i've shared it here before, but this season the Spurs actually generated the most corner threes in the history of NBA basketball, and a big part of that was the simple dynamic. When Wenby rolls to the basket, there's just a lot of defenders that just coalesce around him, and so that's one of the big reasons I think Wemby has clearly proven himself to be the best player in the world in this playoff run. He's averaging twenty nine points and ten rebounds with five stocks per game in the steals plus blocks in this series on fifty nine percent true shooting in a series where no one's efficient, he's efficient. And the simple fact is when he rolls to the basket, good stuff happens even when he's not doing anything else offensively. Last night was actually a game where they scored on the role pretty effectively. Wemby scored twelve points on rolls to the rim last night. That was the most he scored on roles to the rim in the entire postseason to this point. I think the Guards deserve some credit for that. There's also some really weird plays early in the game where Kat was bizarrely like kind of going way out to the level of screens and letting Wemby roll behind him. Kind of reminded me of Game one against Cleveland where they were randomly doubling him with him a lot. So there's some stuff that the Knicks can clean up, for sure. But I do think that Victor webin Yama, there's a certain baseline shot quality you get with him. You kind of just have to hope guys miss.
00:24:37
Speaker 1: All Right, that's a really good point about Wemby. And if the other team keeps scoring and you miss one or two shots, that's when the lead start to expand the margin for error is just so much less. You kind of have to be perfect offensively because you're not going to be perfect defensively. Really interesting point on that. All right, So Game four Finals tomorrow night at eight thirty pm Eastern. UH Spurs are it looks like one and a half point underdogs. The total is two sixteen and a half Spurs plus one ten on the money line Nicks minus one twenty five. I gotta tell you, I'm totally torn what my instinct is on this. I was blown away by the atmosphere at MSG even watching it on television, and I feel like it was almost too much. Like I said this at the top of the show, there's no way the Knicks were going to be able to match that kind of energy. I feel like, now they've seen it, I think the edge goes back to the Knicks. Simon. I want to get Jason's analysis, but as a better what do you think of my instincts.
00:25:51
Speaker 2: It could I would say that they were totally unphazed right the Spurs. It just felt like I couldn't believe how they bounce back after the way the first off ended, right because they went after Brunts and the Knicks toy ride around Brunson, and they came out and just totally dominated that second half. That's for his team, and just you know, as much as props as we're giving to the Madison Square guard on the crowd, you have talked a little bit about her, right this this whole sense of it's such a big moment, such a big build up. You know, the fans themselves seemed exhausting that.
00:26:24
Speaker 3: Second half, like it got quiet.
00:26:27
Speaker 2: I did, so I am excited to see what it's be a little different because you've already seen the price drop in half. Right, They're not gonna be able to clinch here at home in Game four. Maybe I'll let some more common fans back in into the building. Maybe guys won't be selling their tickets, you know, the season ticket holders like they were, because you know, I have a buddyho's a ticket holder, he is not, you know, A he does well, but not anywhere compared to these other people. That one game paid for his whole season. So that Game three, you know, he bit the bull because he thought they were gonna win that and he was obviously gonna go to the close that game. In game four, I think you canet all lot of fans. I can back in stay for this one. But it's like we keep talking about, it's all about the adjustments and that's why I love basketball the chess match that it is. And I want to get Jason's here because I have no idea where to go either. I really don't you. I honestly want to bet the Knicks, but it feels like I'm walking right into it because I just don't get the line. The line feels very short. So where you at Jason with this game here?
00:27:21
Speaker 4: So I do think that I like the nixt side of this line. The game that I would point to as an example is Game five and Okac, where when the Spurs backs were against the wall, like we're going to lose the series if we lose this game. In Game seven, they really strangled Okac's offense with an incredible defensive effort but in game five, when it kind of was like we're guaranteed a game at home no matter what. In Game six, okay, see, just kind of outplayed them from start to finish in terms of that that force battle that I always talk about, like basically just physic force. Who's winning at the point of attack, who's winning on the glass, who's winning the fifty to fifty balls, who's just playing with more energy? And in that game, I remember the Game five, you could tell the dead giveaway was okce role players kept just driving to the basket like Alex Cruzo is driving to the basket like crazy. Ludort was driving the basket like crazy. A lot of guys who struggled in Game seven. So I think there's a version. I think if the Spurs win this series, the way it probably goes is they drop game three or game four, excuse me, and then they win Game five at home, and then in game six, when they absolutely have to win in the garden again, they throw a crazy defensive punch and they pull it out and force a Game seven. The adjustments that are on the table that are worth mentioning here. I've been calling for this since my series preview, but one of the things that they did at the tail end of the game was they bench Champennie and they played Dylan Harper alongside the other two guards with Devin Vessel. And what that does is it forces Jalen bruns And to guard a shooter someone excuse me, not a shooter, a more dynamic offensive player, because Champenny is a shooter, but Devin Vessel is much more of like a can put the ball on the floor, make things happen, shoot on the move, that sort of thing. So down the stretch of the game, they were attacking Brunson pretty relentlessly and getting quite a few good looks. Ironically, the bad possessions were the ones they scored. They had that play where we talked about where Steph Castle hits the prayer, and then Darren Fox the shot that he hit that iced the game. Wemby was trying to go set a screen and Kat was just mauling him out twenty five feet from the basket and was not even letting him go set the screen. So then it turned into Fox had no choice but late clock just to attack O G and Andobi one on one, and he just hit a really nice shot, but down the stretch, they got a lot of really good looks one for Vessel, multiple for Harper, one for Wemby that came out of them essentially just attacking Jalen Brunson with a four guard lineup, and so I do think that that's kind of the direction that the Spurs will go as the series progresses more. The other difference there that's important to mention is Harper is faster than Champennie. He's not bigger, but he's faster, and that makes them more capable of rotating, like when the Knicks get them into those driving kick sequences. They're just faster so they can cover more ground and fly around in rotation. So that's the big adjustment on the Spurs side. Really, the big adjustment on the Knick side is going to be offensive approach. I think what we're going to see in Game four is just a lot less of Brunson. I think that Mike Brown is going to hammer home that they need to play with more variety and that they need to play through Cat more and that they need to play through Og and McHale Moore, and I think we'll see a lot more variety on that front. It's more just do I think the Spurs can win Game four? Yes, it's more just that they don't have to and it's impossible to manufacture urgency. And that's where I think, Like, if there's a game that the Knicks get at home in a version of this series that the Spurs win, it would be Game four anyway, So I think that's the game that I would be on the Knick side.
00:31:00
Speaker 1: I mean, look, you don't want to go down three to one either. It's not like history serves great evidence of what happens when you go down three to one. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. The NBA Finals are here, the lights are brighter, the pressure is higher, and every possession can define a legacy. Despite my feelings about New York fans, I could not be more excited about this matchup. Will New York and its title drought? Will San Antonio hang another championship banner? However you see it playing out, head over to hard Rock Bet and turn your picks into a payday. The season is almost over, so shoot your shot while you can and same game parlays let you stack your picks for an even bigger payout. Try your first bet on hard Rock Bet Today and you can score one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollars better and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. But the welcome offer is just the tip. Hard Rock Bet as new promos daily and sure Hardrock Bet. Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only legal sports book, but you don't have to be in Florida as to join the party. Hard Rock Bet is also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, in Michigan, more states on the way. Download the hard Rock Bet at Today and let's get the party started. Payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states, must be twenty one or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight three three playwise. In Indiana, if you were something you know as a gambling problem and wants to help, call one eight hundred nine with it. In Arizona, Ohio, and Virginia, call one eight hundred mile recent that's that gambling problem, called one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and Tennessee. So to me, there is still the urgency Devil's advocate on everything we all just said about slightly leading the Knicks. The Spurs may have figured something out, and this is the second game in a row where they were able to get very physical with Jalen Brunson defensively, no matter who was guarding him right and whether it was Champagnee, whether it was Dylan Harper, whether it was Castle, even Deeran Fox a little bit like those were the four primary defenders on Jalen Brunson. Three of those guys could be very physical, and they were vertical when they were defending, and they weren't handsy. They were just moving their feet, getting over picks, staying in front of him. They weren't getting called for files last night, just as they weren't called for foules in game two. Defensively, they seem to have figured something out. Agree with you on Harper, Fox and Castles different lineup than I think. They've only played like twelve minutes together through the playoffs at this point until last night. Then maybe they unlock something serious. Price right now plus one fifty for the Spurs open at minus two hundred Nicks. We're plus one seventy minus one seventy before game one now minus I'm sorry, they're plus one seventy before game one now minus one eighty Spurs and seven.
00:34:33
Speaker 4: There's this really weird dynamic where the home team keeps losing Game seven. I'm not sure if you guys have noticed that, but I I keep coming back to this. I think the margins are small, like this is a very very close series, and the Spurs are just like kind of mistake prone, Like Steph Castle will just shove ogn and Obi on a three for no reason. It's send it to the line, or like what in the world was Keldon Johnson doing when he shoved Mitchel Robinson into wem beyond that three that wiped out three points. We talked about the mistakes at the end of Game four. I just think, like, I don't think the Spurs can win this series just with their defense. That's the main difference. They won the Thunder series pretty much just with their defense. This Knicks offense brings a certain amount of firepower to the table to where the Spurs have to almost like keep up with them for phases of the game, and that I think makes it so that this margin is just really small. And I just think that winning again four out of five to end a series after going down two to h is just really really difficult for a young team. When the margins are going to be small, the games are going to be close. Every one of our three games is a clutch time at the end where the score has been within five with less than five minutes left. I think that's an advantage to the Knicks over the course of the series. So I want to be clear, I very much think the Spurs can win this. I think we'd be foolish to count them out. We talked about this last week, but like, this is not the we're excited to go to Cabo group. This is the this is the we're playing basketball the day after the finals. Group like this is a group of young kids who, like is not interested in their season ending by any stretch of the imagination. Like the Spurs, do not count them out. But the Knicks have real advantages. They have adjustments that they can make. They only need to win two of the next four games, and they're gonna have two of those games at MSG, and they're older, more experience. I still think the Knicks are the safer bet at this point.
00:36:35
Speaker 1: Nix and five plus three fifty nix and six plus two ten nix and seven plus five fifty Spurs and six plus seven hundred Spurs and seven plus five fifty signon. If you're making a serious bet exact winner and games. What are you betting on right now?
00:37:01
Speaker 2: This is just as a fan. I think most professionals I know are still dug in pretty much on the Knicks. I just I think Wemby's having a moment here, I really do. I think every game you see him gaming gaining confidence, and you know, are we gonna get that Wemby forty point game tomorrow night? I don't know, But I just love the way it's spaced out where they have this game Wednesday and then it's another three day break, and then if they play Saturday, it's another three day break Tuesday.
00:37:24
Speaker 3: Like, I don't know why.
00:37:25
Speaker 2: I think these things kind of benefit this this Spurs team, and I look at this game and I just think, wemby this whole team, this whole Spurs team has taken us personality of that they're not again people are saying they're playing dirty. This to me is playoff basketball. It's mental, it's physical, and that's that's why I want to see, Like people are bitching about the refs. That was like, that's my dream scenario that way the refs rep that game where it's like we're letting them play, Like we're letting these grown men play this game, right, no eye gougeous, nothing dirty like that. I mean the one brunt to play was dirty, right, kind of hit the back of his head on the who forward for that. Stuff does freak me out a little bit, but overall, it's like that's the game, right. That's why most guys aren't six feet tall in this league, right, Steph Curry, it's sixty three looks small for a reason. It's just these growing men, these big bodies flying around so I'm I'm, I'm, I'm flipping here to the Spurs. I think Spurs and seven feels like that's that's fun value for me to bet right now. So I'm gonna I'm gonna take a little on that, but I'll be upfront. I did lose my sweet bet on the Knicks, which it was a fun ride. I'm not gonna lie. I was feeling pretty good and I still have my Cat MVP bet, so I I do think they're gonna make an adjustment where Cat will get more touches. Just look at the efficiency numbers when the offense runs through Cat. The Knicks are so good in this series, they have those numbers. We're not We're not breaking user right. They have nerds in the building. They're gonna give them that data. So we'll see if Mike Brown makes the adjustments and they get cawdboard touches and have zero points. That Jason gimmas that stat about him in the fourth quarter is alarming because to me, we've talked about he's been, to me, their best player, not just running offense run, but defensively. What he's done the wemby so really interesting. They just have not gun them touches in the fourth quarter.
00:39:05
Speaker 1: MVP ads for Kat down to eight to one. Jason, I still like it.
00:39:10
Speaker 4: I think the uh I think people are understanding what's happening with Brunson. I think it's become officially a storyline now that it's like, Oh, the Knicks are the better team, but is Brunson going to shoot them out of the series. That's become like a legitimate storyline now. So like, I still like the value on Kat. They're eight to one plus, Like, let's just put it this way. If Kat has a monster Game four to put him up three to one, then that's the storyline is Cat has dominated the NBA Finals and they're up three one. So I still like that eight to one line there for Kat.
00:39:44
Speaker 1: How quickly the storylines change from everybody is better than Jalen Brunson until it's time to be better than Jalen Brunson to Jalen Brunson is killing the Knicks chances to win an NBA title. It is a fit fickle business. Jason, give us the last word here. Nix and five, Nix and six Nixon.
00:40:12
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go nix and six. I think that more than anything ever, I don't think home court matters much in this series at all. Either way, I think that if the Spurs win Game five, it'll be more to do with just them being their backs against the wall in a three to one type of series where it's difficult to match force, and then I think, just MSG just party. In Game six, we're celebrating the trophy.
00:40:37
Speaker 3: I do wonder.
00:40:39
Speaker 1: This is not a political statement. I do wonder how much people having to get there four hours early, how much the atmosphere around the garden changing yesterday because they had to block off the perimeter as large as they did, impacting the watch party right next to the garden, impacting the surrounding area, area, bars, sort of atmosphere. I feel like that turned the the the vibe from something that was static, ecstatic and joyful to something that was a little bit more tense. And I wonder if that had an impact. And now that they get into Game four, they can go back to the joyful vibe of the Knicks being New York's team. So we'll see, we'll see. Did I say game five, I mean game four? Listen Jason as always great stuff, that's our show. This has been Sharper Square Part of the Volume podcast network watch or listen on YouTube a sharper square like this video. Subscribe to the channel Downalds from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift that Thursday talking World Cup.
00:41:54
Speaker 3: Love you all right, Dick.
00:41:57
Speaker 2: The reason there's a delay in the game is that some idiot I was throwing a bottle of booze on the floor.
00:42:01
Speaker 4: The floor is covered with glass.
00:42:03
Speaker 1: We are not supposed to.
00:42:04
Speaker 2: Take editorial comments here, but
00:42:06
Speaker 3: That is about the stupidest thing you can do.
