00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square. We are presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I'm Chad Millman, coming to you from a hotel room in Columbus, Ohio, if it looks a little bit different than usual. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:29
Speaker 2: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:30
Speaker 1: Brother, interesting morning. A lot of games, lines moving the whole week. Some in our favor, some not in our favor. Mostly in the direction we predicted may mean some opportunities for value in the contest lines. This is our Sunday morning NFL week five show. We're going to nail down our final Five picks for our $ 25, 000 Pro Football Pick'em Contest. It's free. Join at sharpersquare.thevolume.com. First game up. Simon, Minnesota at New Orleans. This is going to be our closing time trade of the week presented by Polymarket. The Saints are trading at 2.5% and 51% at Polymarket right now. We've had a hard time. finding reasons not to back the saints in this spot all week it's at two and a half in the contest a lot of other places it's one and a half two so i feel like we're getting the best of the number here.
00:01:35
Speaker 3: Still yeah a really fun game with a lot of back and forth right because there are people who are so dogging on this is a great match over minnesota's defense right you're going against an offense that You know, as much as you want to give praise to Shuck, he has been inconsistent this season. So I get why the public and betterers like are coming in heavy on this Vikings team.
00:01:55
Speaker 2: But I think we've been agreeing.
00:01:57
Speaker 3: So, you know, these last couple of weeks that as good as the Vikings are, they're just inflated a little bit right now.
00:02:01
Speaker 1: Right.
00:02:02
Speaker 3: They've had a lot of things break their way. They've had some good luck. And the big one is just offensively. We haven't seen it with anything from Kyler that gives us fear on back of the Saints team. That's my main reason here. It just feels like this game will always be close. We'll always have an opportunity with backdoor. We've seen with Shuck, even that last game, he's down 21. It doesn't matter. This kid is still slinging the exact same way as if he was up 10-0. It's just his personality type. He's just got a ton of moxie in that kid. So we expect a bounce back just in general from the Saints. Got embarrassed in a primetime game. People are down on him. I just think this line, holding where it is, also is very telling. Like, this should, in my opinion, have probably been bet up to three. And the fact that professionals have just keep hitting this down from two and a half to one and a half, then back and forth. So, yeah, we're just going to take the best available number and hope it holds with this Saints team. They're just not as bad as people think they are right now. And Minnesota just feels a little overrated.
00:02:57
Speaker 1: Yeah. 4-0 against the spread. They're playing great defensively. They've been unstoppable defensively. but their offense has not been able to do anything. Every game, it feels like they are getting by by the skin of their teeth. We love Tyler with the shock. We think he can keep us close in this game. New Orleans Saints are trading our closing time trade of the week presented by Polymarket plus two and a half 51%. Okay. Speaking of Polymarket, I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you want it, action on the game. You put some money in and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10 and And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. All right. Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half at New England. We want to be on the Raiders here because they've been so good to us and maybe the market isn't really acknowledging how much better this team is and maybe giving the Patriots a little bit too much credit after beating the Bills last week. We don't know Ashton Gentry's status. He's been questionable all week, hasn't practiced. This one is starting to scare me a little bit. I feel like we're getting a little bit trappy with the Raiders.
00:04:57
Speaker 2: We could be, but a lot of things are breaking in their favor, right?
00:05:00
Speaker 3: The fact that the Patriots are down four cornerbacks is a big deal. The fact that Patriots are one of the worst graded teams against tight ends this season. I know the Bills didn't take advantage of it, but a lot of their teams have. You're talking about an offense that runs their whole offense through tight ends. So this is definitely a number where the pros are betting the Patriots simply because it looks too easy. There's no real logical reason, honestly, behind it other than Vrabel's great in this spot right at home.
00:05:27
Speaker 2: As a favorite.
00:05:28
Speaker 3: I believe him and May combined when they're above a three and a half point favorite, they're like 14 and out against the spread, something insane like that.
00:05:35
Speaker 2: So I get it. But to me, I think a lot of that's to do with last year, right?
00:05:39
Speaker 3: That was all to me. That's all last year's stats, really. The Patriots were just so dominant last year. Drake was so dominant as a favorite. Is that built into this line here? Because I think we both agree this should be with the injuries the Patriots have, there should be two and a half, three at best.
00:05:53
Speaker 2: So Yeah, I'm with you.
00:05:55
Speaker 3: It's scary because they're sucking some of the hooks, but you look at a lot of these markets and a lot of people I've talked to, it's a lot of Patriots money. It's not all Raiders money like you would think it would have been in this matchup. That's one we could circle back to. It's obviously a game where I thought I'd be, at this point, way heavier into, but we're both just assuming this is the Kirk Cousins stinker game.
00:06:16
Speaker 2: That's really the big thing. It's just He's played so well.
00:06:20
Speaker 3: Even that loss to the Chiefs, he played at such a high level. That loss was no way on Kirk Cousins. So that's what people are doing here. And I mean, you know, you're in the Northeast. We're supposed to get this remnants of this hurricane today. So there's a bunch of games that are supposed to be affected by weather. This could be one of them, which is another reason you don't really want to be backing an outdoor Kirk Cousins in the elements in this type of scenario. So Yeah, it's tough. I thought we would both still love this game. I think we both do. We're a little hesitant on betting a 4-0 against a spread team. We think eventually it's going to catch up to them. Could be this week, but I don't know. With all the injuries to.
00:06:53
Speaker 2: The Patriots, this feels like another really good matchup for this Raiders team.
00:06:57
Speaker 1: Clint Kubiak has been scheming Kirk Cousins so well. And Kirk Cousins, from his relationship with Kubiak, going back to Minnesota, clearly believes and has so much confidence in what Kubiak is play-calling for him. He's playing like he's, you know, you like that Kirk Cousins and throwing dimes into triple coverage to Brock Bowers. And I do worry a little bit about Gentile, though Washington has been great. But yeah, this is one where we're playing a little bit with fire. It's catching a fallen. This is a catching a fallen knife game. Are the Patriots all of a sudden back based on what we saw last week? I don't know. They easily could have lost it. The Raiders continue to outperform. So what is going to be the factor that keeps them from outperforming this week? We're going to have to circle back.
00:07:47
Speaker 2: To that one.
00:07:47
Speaker 1: New York Giants at Washington. Washington minus three and a half. I'll be honest. I kind of love the commanders here. I'm surprised this hasn't moved to four. It's three and a half in the contest. It's juiced at a lot of books like it might move to four at some point. I don't know if that's public money coming in because Jaden Daniels is going to play. I don't know if that's professional money that's starting to slowly move this to four, but the commanders have all of a sudden become a team because Jaden Daniels is playing that I'm starting to like a lot more.
00:08:22
Speaker 3: Another number that you've seen it move because of the weather, in my opinion, where this did get up to four and a half, five, a lot of books. And then as soon as everyone heard that, you know, it was going to be a game base, it was going to rain all day for this matchup. You just saw the numbers, the number shifts, right? It's still the exact thing we talked about, right? It's, public reception, three and one giants, they're just hammering this giant side. And, um, you know, maybe the elements help them more because it can, it could be a cam scataboo type of game, but, uh, yeah, we've talked, I just think matchup wise is a lot of things defensively favor Washington and offensively Jane Daniels.
00:08:55
Speaker 2: We've seen that spark and, um, you know, matchup wise.
00:08:58
Speaker 3: I just, I don't know if they have guys, especially on the outside that can stop digs or if McLaren plays, I think that's a great matchup for him as well. So, Yeah, like we said, this was going to be a pros versus Joes. Public's all over the Giants. Pros are all over this Commanders team. So I'm like, yeah, we thought this number would be up to 4.5, 5 like it was. And if it's still 3.5, I'll still take that value. They're just assuming it's going to be a low-scoring 17-14 game, right? That's what the general public and most pros are betting on if they're taking the Giants just because, like we said, it's bad weather, divisional game. That's what they're assuming. It just feels like this is the type of game where Washington just absolutely rolls.
00:09:33
Speaker 1: Houston minus 7.5 at Tennessee. It's actually moved down to 7 at a lot of books. It's still at 7.5 in the contest. I did bet it at 7.5. I actually was afraid it was starting to move to 8, so that's why I took the 7.5. I still don't mind it. To me, the Texans are so much more talented. I honestly feel... like we're getting a point or two of value, especially with D'Amico Ryan's coming back and deciding that he's called the plays. The problem for this team has not been CJ Stroup. It's been this defense. So if this defense can get tight and CJ can play even close to what he's been playing like, then the Texans have to blow out the Titans in this spot.
00:10:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're betting it, but we know the risk, right? The Texans can actually be frauds. They're a bad team right now. Their defense looks poorly coached. And, you know, in these games, we're just so nice to see them being passed all over, especially in these closing games where they've, they've kind of won a bunch of these games and their defense couldn't get stops.
00:10:40
Speaker 2: That's what the most alarming part of the Texans were. So they were on the same page. If this is close heading into the fourth quarter, yes, we're dead. We get that.
00:10:47
Speaker 3: But, This goes the way we plan, which is, you know, 20-0 or 20-3 at halftime and just a total dominance by Texans defense, and they rally around D'Amico Ryans.
00:10:57
Speaker 2: That's the play we want to be on the spot we want to be in.
00:10:59
Speaker 3: Just even going back like this week, I just went back to make sure there was nothing missing. Anything I was missing with Tennessee and Cam Ward is just something that, you know, he is improving week to week, and there just isn't. He still has horrible footwork. He still has happy feet. Still not setting. Still doesn't trust the offense. Doesn't trust his offensive line. I mean, like we talked about this kid, Carnell Tate. whatever it was, a 6th or 7th pick on him, does not look at all like he should be the 6th or 7th pick.
00:11:23
Speaker 2: Just looks totally lost.
00:11:25
Speaker 3: I mean, doesn't block, gives up on routes sometimes because he doesn't trust his quarterback right now. So Tennessee is just all bad. If Texans weren't so bad, we would be so much into betting this number right now. But, yeah, I still believe this is such a rallying spot and rallying number for Texans. And, yeah, not shocking to see that most of the bets, most of the money is coming on Tennessee, right? Especially when it was up to 7.5. The general public does not trust the Texans. And I knew that coming into it. It was just going to be all the pros on the Texans and no one else. So, yeah, interesting seeing this lineman. Like you said, it was trending towards going to eight. Now it's gone back down to seven. So I'm still on the Texans. But, yeah, this feels like one of the last legs in rather than it was going to be one of our first five in.
00:12:08
Speaker 1: Right now, I think we're agreed on the Saints. We're agreed on Washington. Waffling on the Raiders. Texans on the edge. One of the other games, I don't love it. Detroit minus five and a half at Arizona. It got down to four and a half. It's been back up again. Maybe this Arizona team is bad and I'm just sort of, you know, I'm enamored with how they played against the Chargers. I like that they rallied against the Niners for a cover at the end of the game. But Five and a half feels like so much. The problem is that both of these defenses are so freaking bad that at one point, the Cardinals are so far behind. Are the Lions just going to take control of this game on the ground and not give the Cardinals a chance for a backdoor? I can't get behind the Lions, but I don't love the Cardinals. I'm not giving you an answer here.
00:13:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I heard from a lot of fans that what's wrong with me because I love all the 4 p.m.
00:13:20
Speaker 2: Favorites. I love Seattle. I love Denver. And I love Detroit. And I agree. It is truly an outlier.
00:13:26
Speaker 1: It's very strange.
00:13:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is very weird.
00:13:29
Speaker 3: It's just, once again, it's all about the number. And these other teams just feel a little inflated, a little overrated. Like Detroit, it just feels like the lowest time we've been able to buy them this season, right? Like the Bills game, that loss, you can excuse, right? That's Josh at the time. People were viewing him as, you know. the MVP front runner, the best team in football, the Bills. That loss to Carolina hits a little differently. People watch that game, especially what you talked about. That game, I was all over Carolina, and I knew the public was going to absolutely hammer Detroit. They keep thinking it's the same old Detroit, and that number got up to four and a half by kickoff against Carolina. So much money was on Detroit. None of that money has come back on this week. People are just totally mad, pissed off at this Detroit team. It's gone the other way where– The Cardinals, you'll hear people making excuses from last week. Oh, they were driving to win the game against the Giants. If they didn't throw that pick six and they had just kind of touched on, they would have won that game. Yeah, they would have won, but they wouldn't have covered. I mean, they were never going to cover that game against the Giants. That number just moved way too much. So I still think the Cardinals are a little inflated, a little hyped up. Mormon Harris, is that really a loss? No, I don't think that's going to be that big of a deal to them. If we get burned, it will be by the back door. It's no different than when they play the Jets. We just know Detroit's defense is, 31st, 32nd, basically in every category that's important. But Paris Campbell not playing this game. That's a big deal where the front is still a strong front. Like they still can get pressure on quarterbacks, this Detroit Lions front. So it's really going to come down to what do you want to pick your poison, buddy? Because I bet basically just as heavy into Seattle, just as heavy into Detroit, and just as heavy into Denver.
00:15:04
Speaker 2: So I can.
00:15:06
Speaker 3: Really go in any way you want. I would say– The other two both have hooks. I guess we're not getting the hook here. At least it's not six or six and a half.
00:15:15
Speaker 1: Of those games, it's a bit of a dead number. I can get behind Detroit here. You and I have been on the opposite sides of the Broncos and the Chargers all week, so we can take that off the board.
00:15:28
Speaker 3: Have you seen the offensive line, though?
00:15:32
Speaker 1: I know. It's terrible.
00:15:33
Speaker 3: Right now, they are down– Slater and Joe Walter are out today. So they will have four rookies starting on the offensive line. This isn't like some amazing prospect rookies. They're just guys off the street to fill the holes right now. Against arguably top three, top five defensive line.
00:15:51
Speaker 1: With Sean Payton calling the plays.
00:15:53
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:15:53
Speaker 3: So that's why I get what you're doing here. You're simply playing the spot in the number. Where in past history, this was an auto play on Justin Herbert here.
00:16:02
Speaker 2: But, man.
00:16:04
Speaker 3: I don't know how you were avoiding taking Denver. It's never this easy, but sometimes it really is this easy.
00:16:11
Speaker 1: All right. All right. We'll put on the list. We just talked about Denver for a second. To me, I love Seattle. We both love Seattle. Seattle was Chad's choice, but we both were betting it hard at two and a half. I even took it at three. It was our discord grouper of the week. Three and a half in the contest. I just feel like that's too far. And so to me, the other game that we had, we talked a lot about Atlanta. You're bet into Atlanta. I'm bet into Atlanta, but it's three and a half in the contest. We don't like the number. We talked a little bit about Buffalo at three and a half.
00:16:49
Speaker 2: Snoop's not a roller, right? I hope people know that word. Snoop.
00:16:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's not going to win you three games in a row, but winning this one game against Atlanta, Snoop only can do that for the Ravens.
00:16:57
Speaker 2: We saw he came into a game last year. I think he put up like 40 points in that game.
00:17:01
Speaker 3: So we've seen Snoop win and steal these games, but, um, yeah, this Atlanta one, it really is about the number. If this was still two and a half, I think we'd be all over it, but yeah, with the hook, we just don't want to risk it.
00:17:13
Speaker 1: You just did a very convincing job on Denver for me, Simon.
00:17:19
Speaker 2: Um, So that let's say we're gonna have one stupid chalk bet. We lose on this week. I I'm, I'm happy for it to be Denver.
00:17:28
Speaker 1: You feel that strongly about it.
00:17:30
Speaker 2: Yeah. Just cause the champagne aspect of it.
00:17:33
Speaker 1: I just, and on the offensive line. Yeah.
00:17:36
Speaker 3: And that's another big thing where it's like, even if the offense doesn't show up in the first half, once again, I don't see how the chargers keep moving the ball where they feel like the charges have had a ton of luck these last two weeks to even be in those games against the bills against Seattle and Sure, can they find their way once again here again, but they're going to have no Ladd-McConkie.
00:17:55
Speaker 2: They're down four off its alignment. At some point, it has to become too much.
00:17:59
Speaker 1: No turn with James.
00:18:01
Speaker 3: Yes, no turn with James. We've just seen Denver underperform so much. They've had such a hard schedule. They've played all playoff teams. They've had this ruling gauntlet. This feels like their first easy game, you could say, even though it's not. Chargers are still a good team overall, but Yeah, I just look at this number and it just feels like a book's got caught here where if they could, they would have made this 6.5, but now they can't move it because they know they'll just get hounded by the general public if they move this number too much. So that's just one where it's like if I'm going to get burned on a game here, as much as I love Seattle, I'd rather be the Chargers in this Denver game because I just– I don't know about you, but I am still scared of this 49ers team. They just have played so well where I have no fear of this Chargers team right now. If we get burned here, it's just because football happened and something stupid obviously happened in this football game.
00:18:48
Speaker 1: So what if we did Saints plus two and a half in the contest, Washington minus three and a half, Houston minus seven and a half, Denver minus three and a half, and then I think it comes down to Detroit minus five and a half or Raiders plus three and a half.
00:19:14
Speaker 2: You're not at all invested in this Green Bay line.
00:19:18
Speaker 1: So Green Bay right now is plus one and a half in the contest.
00:19:22
Speaker 2: It's the stinkiest professional line of the week.
00:19:25
Speaker 1: Explain that.
00:19:27
Speaker 3: Like, you do zero research, you do zero work on this one, you just bet Green Bay. The Bears, through the general public walking on the sportsbook this morning, getting the crust out of their eyes, every guy in the world is betting.
00:19:41
Speaker 2: The Bears right now.
00:19:41
Speaker 3: And I don't even know if it's Caleb Williams or not. That's that's also an interesting party right i don't know if we have to force it if you're a listener of this show because if it's noon and caleb gets approved maybe this runs all the way up to three who knows um maybe that's the part i'm missing with this one but i i just can't get over that this number is held at plus one and a half on green bay despite all the money pouring in anyone's model will tell you that the bears are a better team right now defensively offensively I mean, it's just one of the more bizarre lines of the week. The books are literally telling you Green Bay is going to win this game. And I can't get over that because it just feels like Chicago is such a better team in every way right now. And that's what I love about what we do right now because the numbers tell you what you need to know. So, yeah, we could get burned here, but it's another spot where you bet this Bears team nine times out of ten, you're going to lose this bet.
00:20:32
Speaker 2: It's just a sucker bet.
00:20:33
Speaker 1: The reason I didn't choose it is because– We lost the best of the number on this one. We've had it at two and a half for most of the week. We talked about it on Tuesday. It made no sense to bet Tyson Bajan or the Bears as a two and a half point road favorite against the Packers team that is reeling. The Packers have the same offensive line issues as the Chargers, and the line has still moved in their direction. So I agree. It tells you where the professionals are going and what the bookmakers are telling you that we need to do here. I just didn't love not getting the best of the number. If you feel strongly about the Packers, I'd almost rather have the Packers than the Raiders.
00:21:16
Speaker 2: There you go.
00:21:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm happy with it. We're very chalky this week. At least, you know, let me feel like an idiot losing on the Saints. Let me feel like an idiot losing on Green Bay. Let me get some ugly, ugly home dogs in this game.
00:21:28
Speaker 1: So we're doing Saints two and a half, Washington three and a half, Houston seven and a half. Denver three and a half. Green Bay plus one and a half. That's our show, brother. We did it. Man, that is going to be grueling. Absolutely grueling. Simon and I will return tonight, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, live on Sharper Square, YouTube's channel, with our instant NFL reactions after the late games wrap up. This has been Sharper Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until tonight. Love you. The autumn wind is a raider pillaging just for fun.
00:22:25
Speaker 2: He'll knock you round and upside down and laugh when he's conquered and won.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square. We are presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I'm Chad Millman, coming to you from a hotel room in Columbus, Ohio, if it looks a little bit different than usual. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:29
Speaker 2: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:30
Speaker 1: Brother, interesting morning. A lot of games, lines moving the whole week. Some in our favor, some not in our favor. Mostly in the direction we predicted may mean some opportunities for value in the contest lines. This is our Sunday morning NFL week five show. We're going to nail down our final Five picks for our $ 25, 000 Pro Football Pick'em Contest. It's free. Join at sharpersquare.thevolume.com. First game up. Simon, Minnesota at New Orleans. This is going to be our closing time trade of the week presented by Polymarket. The Saints are trading at 2.5% and 51% at Polymarket right now. We've had a hard time. finding reasons not to back the saints in this spot all week it's at two and a half in the contest a lot of other places it's one and a half two so i feel like we're getting the best of the number here.
00:01:35
Speaker 3: Still yeah a really fun game with a lot of back and forth right because there are people who are so dogging on this is a great match over minnesota's defense right you're going against an offense that You know, as much as you want to give praise to Shuck, he has been inconsistent this season. So I get why the public and betterers like are coming in heavy on this Vikings team.
00:01:55
Speaker 2: But I think we've been agreeing.
00:01:57
Speaker 3: So, you know, these last couple of weeks that as good as the Vikings are, they're just inflated a little bit right now.
00:02:01
Speaker 1: Right.
00:02:02
Speaker 3: They've had a lot of things break their way. They've had some good luck. And the big one is just offensively. We haven't seen it with anything from Kyler that gives us fear on back of the Saints team. That's my main reason here. It just feels like this game will always be close. We'll always have an opportunity with backdoor. We've seen with Shuck, even that last game, he's down 21. It doesn't matter. This kid is still slinging the exact same way as if he was up 10-0. It's just his personality type. He's just got a ton of moxie in that kid. So we expect a bounce back just in general from the Saints. Got embarrassed in a primetime game. People are down on him. I just think this line, holding where it is, also is very telling. Like, this should, in my opinion, have probably been bet up to three. And the fact that professionals have just keep hitting this down from two and a half to one and a half, then back and forth. So, yeah, we're just going to take the best available number and hope it holds with this Saints team. They're just not as bad as people think they are right now. And Minnesota just feels a little overrated.
00:02:57
Speaker 1: Yeah. 4-0 against the spread. They're playing great defensively. They've been unstoppable defensively. but their offense has not been able to do anything. Every game, it feels like they are getting by by the skin of their teeth. We love Tyler with the shock. We think he can keep us close in this game. New Orleans Saints are trading our closing time trade of the week presented by Polymarket plus two and a half 51%. Okay. Speaking of Polymarket, I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you want it, action on the game. You put some money in and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10 and And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. All right. Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half at New England. We want to be on the Raiders here because they've been so good to us and maybe the market isn't really acknowledging how much better this team is and maybe giving the Patriots a little bit too much credit after beating the Bills last week. We don't know Ashton Gentry's status. He's been questionable all week, hasn't practiced. This one is starting to scare me a little bit. I feel like we're getting a little bit trappy with the Raiders.
00:04:57
Speaker 2: We could be, but a lot of things are breaking in their favor, right?
00:05:00
Speaker 3: The fact that the Patriots are down four cornerbacks is a big deal. The fact that Patriots are one of the worst graded teams against tight ends this season. I know the Bills didn't take advantage of it, but a lot of their teams have. You're talking about an offense that runs their whole offense through tight ends. So this is definitely a number where the pros are betting the Patriots simply because it looks too easy. There's no real logical reason, honestly, behind it other than Vrabel's great in this spot right at home.
00:05:27
Speaker 2: As a favorite.
00:05:28
Speaker 3: I believe him and May combined when they're above a three and a half point favorite, they're like 14 and out against the spread, something insane like that.
00:05:35
Speaker 2: So I get it. But to me, I think a lot of that's to do with last year, right?
00:05:39
Speaker 3: That was all to me. That's all last year's stats, really. The Patriots were just so dominant last year. Drake was so dominant as a favorite. Is that built into this line here? Because I think we both agree this should be with the injuries the Patriots have, there should be two and a half, three at best.
00:05:53
Speaker 2: So Yeah, I'm with you.
00:05:55
Speaker 3: It's scary because they're sucking some of the hooks, but you look at a lot of these markets and a lot of people I've talked to, it's a lot of Patriots money. It's not all Raiders money like you would think it would have been in this matchup. That's one we could circle back to. It's obviously a game where I thought I'd be, at this point, way heavier into, but we're both just assuming this is the Kirk Cousins stinker game.
00:06:16
Speaker 2: That's really the big thing. It's just He's played so well.
00:06:20
Speaker 3: Even that loss to the Chiefs, he played at such a high level. That loss was no way on Kirk Cousins. So that's what people are doing here. And I mean, you know, you're in the Northeast. We're supposed to get this remnants of this hurricane today. So there's a bunch of games that are supposed to be affected by weather. This could be one of them, which is another reason you don't really want to be backing an outdoor Kirk Cousins in the elements in this type of scenario. So Yeah, it's tough. I thought we would both still love this game. I think we both do. We're a little hesitant on betting a 4-0 against a spread team. We think eventually it's going to catch up to them. Could be this week, but I don't know. With all the injuries to.
00:06:53
Speaker 2: The Patriots, this feels like another really good matchup for this Raiders team.
00:06:57
Speaker 1: Clint Kubiak has been scheming Kirk Cousins so well. And Kirk Cousins, from his relationship with Kubiak, going back to Minnesota, clearly believes and has so much confidence in what Kubiak is play-calling for him. He's playing like he's, you know, you like that Kirk Cousins and throwing dimes into triple coverage to Brock Bowers. And I do worry a little bit about Gentile, though Washington has been great. But yeah, this is one where we're playing a little bit with fire. It's catching a fallen. This is a catching a fallen knife game. Are the Patriots all of a sudden back based on what we saw last week? I don't know. They easily could have lost it. The Raiders continue to outperform. So what is going to be the factor that keeps them from outperforming this week? We're going to have to circle back.
00:07:47
Speaker 2: To that one.
00:07:47
Speaker 1: New York Giants at Washington. Washington minus three and a half. I'll be honest. I kind of love the commanders here. I'm surprised this hasn't moved to four. It's three and a half in the contest. It's juiced at a lot of books like it might move to four at some point. I don't know if that's public money coming in because Jaden Daniels is going to play. I don't know if that's professional money that's starting to slowly move this to four, but the commanders have all of a sudden become a team because Jaden Daniels is playing that I'm starting to like a lot more.
00:08:22
Speaker 3: Another number that you've seen it move because of the weather, in my opinion, where this did get up to four and a half, five, a lot of books. And then as soon as everyone heard that, you know, it was going to be a game base, it was going to rain all day for this matchup. You just saw the numbers, the number shifts, right? It's still the exact thing we talked about, right? It's, public reception, three and one giants, they're just hammering this giant side. And, um, you know, maybe the elements help them more because it can, it could be a cam scataboo type of game, but, uh, yeah, we've talked, I just think matchup wise is a lot of things defensively favor Washington and offensively Jane Daniels.
00:08:55
Speaker 2: We've seen that spark and, um, you know, matchup wise.
00:08:58
Speaker 3: I just, I don't know if they have guys, especially on the outside that can stop digs or if McLaren plays, I think that's a great matchup for him as well. So, Yeah, like we said, this was going to be a pros versus Joes. Public's all over the Giants. Pros are all over this Commanders team. So I'm like, yeah, we thought this number would be up to 4.5, 5 like it was. And if it's still 3.5, I'll still take that value. They're just assuming it's going to be a low-scoring 17-14 game, right? That's what the general public and most pros are betting on if they're taking the Giants just because, like we said, it's bad weather, divisional game. That's what they're assuming. It just feels like this is the type of game where Washington just absolutely rolls.
00:09:33
Speaker 1: Houston minus 7.5 at Tennessee. It's actually moved down to 7 at a lot of books. It's still at 7.5 in the contest. I did bet it at 7.5. I actually was afraid it was starting to move to 8, so that's why I took the 7.5. I still don't mind it. To me, the Texans are so much more talented. I honestly feel... like we're getting a point or two of value, especially with D'Amico Ryan's coming back and deciding that he's called the plays. The problem for this team has not been CJ Stroup. It's been this defense. So if this defense can get tight and CJ can play even close to what he's been playing like, then the Texans have to blow out the Titans in this spot.
00:10:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're betting it, but we know the risk, right? The Texans can actually be frauds. They're a bad team right now. Their defense looks poorly coached. And, you know, in these games, we're just so nice to see them being passed all over, especially in these closing games where they've, they've kind of won a bunch of these games and their defense couldn't get stops.
00:10:40
Speaker 2: That's what the most alarming part of the Texans were. So they were on the same page. If this is close heading into the fourth quarter, yes, we're dead. We get that.
00:10:47
Speaker 3: But, This goes the way we plan, which is, you know, 20-0 or 20-3 at halftime and just a total dominance by Texans defense, and they rally around D'Amico Ryans.
00:10:57
Speaker 2: That's the play we want to be on the spot we want to be in.
00:10:59
Speaker 3: Just even going back like this week, I just went back to make sure there was nothing missing. Anything I was missing with Tennessee and Cam Ward is just something that, you know, he is improving week to week, and there just isn't. He still has horrible footwork. He still has happy feet. Still not setting. Still doesn't trust the offense. Doesn't trust his offensive line. I mean, like we talked about this kid, Carnell Tate. whatever it was, a 6th or 7th pick on him, does not look at all like he should be the 6th or 7th pick.
00:11:23
Speaker 2: Just looks totally lost.
00:11:25
Speaker 3: I mean, doesn't block, gives up on routes sometimes because he doesn't trust his quarterback right now. So Tennessee is just all bad. If Texans weren't so bad, we would be so much into betting this number right now. But, yeah, I still believe this is such a rallying spot and rallying number for Texans. And, yeah, not shocking to see that most of the bets, most of the money is coming on Tennessee, right? Especially when it was up to 7.5. The general public does not trust the Texans. And I knew that coming into it. It was just going to be all the pros on the Texans and no one else. So, yeah, interesting seeing this lineman. Like you said, it was trending towards going to eight. Now it's gone back down to seven. So I'm still on the Texans. But, yeah, this feels like one of the last legs in rather than it was going to be one of our first five in.
00:12:08
Speaker 1: Right now, I think we're agreed on the Saints. We're agreed on Washington. Waffling on the Raiders. Texans on the edge. One of the other games, I don't love it. Detroit minus five and a half at Arizona. It got down to four and a half. It's been back up again. Maybe this Arizona team is bad and I'm just sort of, you know, I'm enamored with how they played against the Chargers. I like that they rallied against the Niners for a cover at the end of the game. But Five and a half feels like so much. The problem is that both of these defenses are so freaking bad that at one point, the Cardinals are so far behind. Are the Lions just going to take control of this game on the ground and not give the Cardinals a chance for a backdoor? I can't get behind the Lions, but I don't love the Cardinals. I'm not giving you an answer here.
00:13:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I heard from a lot of fans that what's wrong with me because I love all the 4 p.m.
00:13:20
Speaker 2: Favorites. I love Seattle. I love Denver. And I love Detroit. And I agree. It is truly an outlier.
00:13:26
Speaker 1: It's very strange.
00:13:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is very weird.
00:13:29
Speaker 3: It's just, once again, it's all about the number. And these other teams just feel a little inflated, a little overrated. Like Detroit, it just feels like the lowest time we've been able to buy them this season, right? Like the Bills game, that loss, you can excuse, right? That's Josh at the time. People were viewing him as, you know. the MVP front runner, the best team in football, the Bills. That loss to Carolina hits a little differently. People watch that game, especially what you talked about. That game, I was all over Carolina, and I knew the public was going to absolutely hammer Detroit. They keep thinking it's the same old Detroit, and that number got up to four and a half by kickoff against Carolina. So much money was on Detroit. None of that money has come back on this week. People are just totally mad, pissed off at this Detroit team. It's gone the other way where– The Cardinals, you'll hear people making excuses from last week. Oh, they were driving to win the game against the Giants. If they didn't throw that pick six and they had just kind of touched on, they would have won that game. Yeah, they would have won, but they wouldn't have covered. I mean, they were never going to cover that game against the Giants. That number just moved way too much. So I still think the Cardinals are a little inflated, a little hyped up. Mormon Harris, is that really a loss? No, I don't think that's going to be that big of a deal to them. If we get burned, it will be by the back door. It's no different than when they play the Jets. We just know Detroit's defense is, 31st, 32nd, basically in every category that's important. But Paris Campbell not playing this game. That's a big deal where the front is still a strong front. Like they still can get pressure on quarterbacks, this Detroit Lions front. So it's really going to come down to what do you want to pick your poison, buddy? Because I bet basically just as heavy into Seattle, just as heavy into Detroit, and just as heavy into Denver.
00:15:04
Speaker 2: So I can.
00:15:06
Speaker 3: Really go in any way you want. I would say– The other two both have hooks. I guess we're not getting the hook here. At least it's not six or six and a half.
00:15:15
Speaker 1: Of those games, it's a bit of a dead number. I can get behind Detroit here. You and I have been on the opposite sides of the Broncos and the Chargers all week, so we can take that off the board.
00:15:28
Speaker 3: Have you seen the offensive line, though?
00:15:32
Speaker 1: I know. It's terrible.
00:15:33
Speaker 3: Right now, they are down– Slater and Joe Walter are out today. So they will have four rookies starting on the offensive line. This isn't like some amazing prospect rookies. They're just guys off the street to fill the holes right now. Against arguably top three, top five defensive line.
00:15:51
Speaker 1: With Sean Payton calling the plays.
00:15:53
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:15:53
Speaker 3: So that's why I get what you're doing here. You're simply playing the spot in the number. Where in past history, this was an auto play on Justin Herbert here.
00:16:02
Speaker 2: But, man.
00:16:04
Speaker 3: I don't know how you were avoiding taking Denver. It's never this easy, but sometimes it really is this easy.
00:16:11
Speaker 1: All right. All right. We'll put on the list. We just talked about Denver for a second. To me, I love Seattle. We both love Seattle. Seattle was Chad's choice, but we both were betting it hard at two and a half. I even took it at three. It was our discord grouper of the week. Three and a half in the contest. I just feel like that's too far. And so to me, the other game that we had, we talked a lot about Atlanta. You're bet into Atlanta. I'm bet into Atlanta, but it's three and a half in the contest. We don't like the number. We talked a little bit about Buffalo at three and a half.
00:16:49
Speaker 2: Snoop's not a roller, right? I hope people know that word. Snoop.
00:16:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's not going to win you three games in a row, but winning this one game against Atlanta, Snoop only can do that for the Ravens.
00:16:57
Speaker 2: We saw he came into a game last year. I think he put up like 40 points in that game.
00:17:01
Speaker 3: So we've seen Snoop win and steal these games, but, um, yeah, this Atlanta one, it really is about the number. If this was still two and a half, I think we'd be all over it, but yeah, with the hook, we just don't want to risk it.
00:17:13
Speaker 1: You just did a very convincing job on Denver for me, Simon.
00:17:19
Speaker 2: Um, So that let's say we're gonna have one stupid chalk bet. We lose on this week. I I'm, I'm happy for it to be Denver.
00:17:28
Speaker 1: You feel that strongly about it.
00:17:30
Speaker 2: Yeah. Just cause the champagne aspect of it.
00:17:33
Speaker 1: I just, and on the offensive line. Yeah.
00:17:36
Speaker 3: And that's another big thing where it's like, even if the offense doesn't show up in the first half, once again, I don't see how the chargers keep moving the ball where they feel like the charges have had a ton of luck these last two weeks to even be in those games against the bills against Seattle and Sure, can they find their way once again here again, but they're going to have no Ladd-McConkie.
00:17:55
Speaker 2: They're down four off its alignment. At some point, it has to become too much.
00:17:59
Speaker 1: No turn with James.
00:18:01
Speaker 3: Yes, no turn with James. We've just seen Denver underperform so much. They've had such a hard schedule. They've played all playoff teams. They've had this ruling gauntlet. This feels like their first easy game, you could say, even though it's not. Chargers are still a good team overall, but Yeah, I just look at this number and it just feels like a book's got caught here where if they could, they would have made this 6.5, but now they can't move it because they know they'll just get hounded by the general public if they move this number too much. So that's just one where it's like if I'm going to get burned on a game here, as much as I love Seattle, I'd rather be the Chargers in this Denver game because I just– I don't know about you, but I am still scared of this 49ers team. They just have played so well where I have no fear of this Chargers team right now. If we get burned here, it's just because football happened and something stupid obviously happened in this football game.
00:18:48
Speaker 1: So what if we did Saints plus two and a half in the contest, Washington minus three and a half, Houston minus seven and a half, Denver minus three and a half, and then I think it comes down to Detroit minus five and a half or Raiders plus three and a half.
00:19:14
Speaker 2: You're not at all invested in this Green Bay line.
00:19:18
Speaker 1: So Green Bay right now is plus one and a half in the contest.
00:19:22
Speaker 2: It's the stinkiest professional line of the week.
00:19:25
Speaker 1: Explain that.
00:19:27
Speaker 3: Like, you do zero research, you do zero work on this one, you just bet Green Bay. The Bears, through the general public walking on the sportsbook this morning, getting the crust out of their eyes, every guy in the world is betting.
00:19:41
Speaker 2: The Bears right now.
00:19:41
Speaker 3: And I don't even know if it's Caleb Williams or not. That's that's also an interesting party right i don't know if we have to force it if you're a listener of this show because if it's noon and caleb gets approved maybe this runs all the way up to three who knows um maybe that's the part i'm missing with this one but i i just can't get over that this number is held at plus one and a half on green bay despite all the money pouring in anyone's model will tell you that the bears are a better team right now defensively offensively I mean, it's just one of the more bizarre lines of the week. The books are literally telling you Green Bay is going to win this game. And I can't get over that because it just feels like Chicago is such a better team in every way right now. And that's what I love about what we do right now because the numbers tell you what you need to know. So, yeah, we could get burned here, but it's another spot where you bet this Bears team nine times out of ten, you're going to lose this bet.
00:20:32
Speaker 2: It's just a sucker bet.
00:20:33
Speaker 1: The reason I didn't choose it is because– We lost the best of the number on this one. We've had it at two and a half for most of the week. We talked about it on Tuesday. It made no sense to bet Tyson Bajan or the Bears as a two and a half point road favorite against the Packers team that is reeling. The Packers have the same offensive line issues as the Chargers, and the line has still moved in their direction. So I agree. It tells you where the professionals are going and what the bookmakers are telling you that we need to do here. I just didn't love not getting the best of the number. If you feel strongly about the Packers, I'd almost rather have the Packers than the Raiders.
00:21:16
Speaker 2: There you go.
00:21:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm happy with it. We're very chalky this week. At least, you know, let me feel like an idiot losing on the Saints. Let me feel like an idiot losing on Green Bay. Let me get some ugly, ugly home dogs in this game.
00:21:28
Speaker 1: So we're doing Saints two and a half, Washington three and a half, Houston seven and a half. Denver three and a half. Green Bay plus one and a half. That's our show, brother. We did it. Man, that is going to be grueling. Absolutely grueling. Simon and I will return tonight, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, live on Sharper Square, YouTube's channel, with our instant NFL reactions after the late games wrap up. This has been Sharper Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until tonight. Love you. The autumn wind is a raider pillaging just for fun.
00:22:25
Speaker 2: He'll knock you round and upside down and laugh when he's conquered and won.
