Crypto Carnage📉@TimWarrenTrades Technical Analysis

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Language: en
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Crypto carnage is happening right now in
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the markets. Of course, this is could go
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into a lot of other things, including
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the S&P 500. Today, we're going to break
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it down with Tim, who is going to help
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us chart it. But before we get started,
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a word from our sponsor. I want to thank
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our sponsor today, and that is Uphold.
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>> All right, so let's get back into it. I
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want to bring in Tim Warren. You guys
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know him from Tim Warren Trades. How are
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you, Tim?
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>> Well, I'm I'm doing good myself, Paul.
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Uh my portfolio, the long-term one's not
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doing so great. Uh but this is the stuff
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that I was expecting, so overall can't
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be that much better. All right. So, you
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you signed up for you signed up for this
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as they say.
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>> Yeah.
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>> And of course, here we roll right now
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with the fear and greed and it is
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started to absolutely plummet. You're
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sitting at around 16.
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>> Last time we've been in this rain was
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back in February.
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>> Um
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>> what do you think? Do you think we're
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going to continue to see the sentiment
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falling through the floor like what
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we've seen here in the past couple of
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days?
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>> Yeah, I do. you know, the metric I I
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follow, it has us down at 12. Yesterday,
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two days ago, we were at 11. Um, the
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record back in February was at five. Uh,
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so it's not back down to those extreme
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lows. Of course, today we just
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officially put in that sub 60K lower
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there, but there's something I'm going
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to show you guys on the chart here. Uh,
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I've been bearish for months now. I I I
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>> called the move towards 80K and then a
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pullback sub 60K, but I thought that
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this next move was going to be the last
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one. There's something on the charts
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right now, Paul, that makes me think
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this isn't the last fall. This is the
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next fall. And Bitcoin's bare market,
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unfortunately, looks like it's going to
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be extended a couple more months.
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>> So, extended a couple more months.
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You've got uh right now, just in the
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past hour or so, we're talking about
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another half a billion. Uh you got
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Bitcoin down to 61. It's sub 60 now at
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time of recording. uh ETH around 1500,
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BNB continuing to fall, XRP approaching
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the $1 mark, and now Soul uh also taking
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some heat as well. Let's get into a clip
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real quick that I want to play for you.
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And this is Eric Balunis talking about
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Bitcoin and then we'll go to the chart.
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Take a look.
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>> The messaging shouldn't only be, hey,
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the boomers are coming. That makes it
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seem more Ponziish, like we just need
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more investors. I think the message is
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that the fundamental purpose and value
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here is that the government is going to
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print money like crazy no matter who's
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president and if you want a hedge
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something that the government cannot
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debase this is a powerful asset for that
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similar to gold.
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>> All right. So this has been the
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schematic for crypto for a very long
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time is that debasement of the US
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currency. the hedge against that whether
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you look at precious metals in gold or
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you look at digital assets from a a
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standpoint of Bitcoin, Ethereum and
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others. Uh but now they're talking about
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trying to rebrand this and I think this
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is a very interesting question because I
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don't know that the culture of
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especially Bitcoin allows for that. I
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think it it is the next man up kind of
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thing in terms of investment strategies
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that have kind of hit the market. When
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you look at the chart right now, you
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talk about this being the next dip.
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Where does this stop?
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>> So, as I said earlier, Paul, I've been
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tracking, you know, and and predicting a
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sub60K move here, even all the way back
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in February when we made the move down
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to 60K. And I had three targets that I
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was really watching conservatively
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around 58,000, more aggressively around
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53,000, and then my like extreme
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situation on this next move could have
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been all the way down here to 48,000.
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Right now, what's happening? We just
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wicked sub 60K. Even more interestingly,
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you're going to see a lot of people
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talking about this on the technical
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analysis side. We just touched the 200
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week, excuse me, that's the EMA, the
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SMA, the 200E SMA just got hit today
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coming in here around 617ish.
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So, a lot of people are going to focus
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on that. You'll also see this green
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trend line. This is the trend line uh of
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the bull trend for Bitcoin dating all
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the way back to the bare market lows of
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2018. So, a lot of support was hit
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today. And so, I will not be surprised
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at all if there is a shortterm bounce
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here on Bitcoin. By the way, we've also
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for the last three days been wrestling
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with uh potential buy signals on the
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4hour chart. You can see money flow.
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It's going to sound funny because it's
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not like there's a bunch of money
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flowing in, but money flow has actually
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started to go back positive. And you can
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see on the RSI, we started to trend with
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higher lows on the RSI here as well,
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giving us bullish divergence. So,
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Bitcoin is overdue for what I would call
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a rebound revenge bounce. Not that this
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is going to be a bounce that takes us
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back above 70K or anything, but a move
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at this point I could easily see getting
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back up to 65 66K area. But I I told you
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I I I warned a second ago in the intro.
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I said um this was this is maybe not
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going to be the last leg down. It's
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simply the next leg down. Something I've
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talked about on your channel is the fact
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that we had this extremely low RSI level
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back here in February that came all the
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way down to 15 uh 16 point something,
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right? And
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>> if you look at our current level, we
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just dipped below. Now, the significance
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of this is that every single bare market
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bottom for Bitcoin has had bullish
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divergence where we get lower lows in
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price action but higher lows in the RSI.
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So what we're seeing with this is not
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bullish divergence implying to me that
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this probably is not going to be the
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last big move down. In fact, now what I
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could very easily see happening I as the
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buy signals are close. I could easily
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see us coming down here towards 58 and
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starting to get some buys coming back
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up. In which case people start to get
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bullish again. They say, "Oh, that's it.
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The bottom's in." All the while, we're
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just doing another one of these
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sideways, boring, lower high levels, and
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then we dip back down again to fresh
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lows at this point. Now, you can call it
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the four-year cycle, you can call
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whatever you want. I'm now looking at
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September or October for the realistic
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timeline for the bounce. Um, because
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we're canceling these daily bullish
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divergence, they just pushed back the
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Clarity Act again into August, it sounds
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like, according to Lumis. Uh, they keep
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kicking the can down the road. And
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unfortunately, I would love to get on
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here and tell everybody this is it. The
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bottom's in. I'm bullish now, but that's
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not what the charts are telling me at
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this time.
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>> Right. So, and I think the point you
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look at, uh, you know, Bitcoin now down
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20% since the Clarity Act passed. This
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is since it passed the the banking
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committee. Uh, now we're also seeing the
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Bitcoin ETF, you know, outflows.
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Absolutely.
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>> I think, you know, astronomical when you
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compare to this. I think that's why, you
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know, what you saw there with Eric Bunus
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from Bloomberg who covers the ETF side
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of things, he understands this is a
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liquidity event that is quite a bit
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different because remember that's mostly
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institutional capital that's been
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playing in on that. Do you think clarity
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is that important for Bitcoin?
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>> Well, it's going to be important for the
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institutions. It's it's not important
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necessarily like Bitcoin can make it
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without uh ETFs and it can be successful
00:08:04.639 --> 00:08:06.950
without institutions but but we're not
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going to talk about rivaling gold
00:08:08.319 --> 00:08:10.309
without institutional adoption right if
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the thought process is Bitcoin is the
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money of the people institutions don't
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want to touch with a 10-ft pole
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>> I know a lot of people who want that to
00:08:16.720 --> 00:08:18.309
be the situation for Bitcoin and that's
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fine you can think that way um Bitcoin
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at that place it's going to take a long
00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:25.510
time to get over a million dollars per
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coin Um, there's people talking about
00:08:27.360 --> 00:08:29.510
getting 13 $15 million per coin, which I
00:08:29.520 --> 00:08:31.189
still think is possible in the long-term
00:08:31.199 --> 00:08:33.029
future. That's not happening without
00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:34.870
institutions. They still control a
00:08:34.880 --> 00:08:37.029
massive amount of wealth. We clearly
00:08:37.039 --> 00:08:39.430
know that the institutions see Bitcoin
00:08:39.440 --> 00:08:41.269
as a threat, right? So, what do you do
00:08:41.279 --> 00:08:43.029
with a threat? You either a do
00:08:43.039 --> 00:08:44.710
everything within your power to kill it,
00:08:44.720 --> 00:08:46.230
which is what they tried doing back in
00:08:46.240 --> 00:08:47.990
2021, and people are going to try to
00:08:48.000 --> 00:08:49.350
argue they've done it throughout the the
00:08:49.360 --> 00:08:51.190
last couple of years as well, or number
00:08:51.200 --> 00:08:52.470
two, you realize something's so
00:08:52.480 --> 00:08:54.389
threatening to you, but it's it's too
00:08:54.399 --> 00:08:56.870
big to beat, so you join in with it.
00:08:56.880 --> 00:08:59.110
This new coin, this new currency is
00:08:59.120 --> 00:09:01.190
going to take over by storm. You got to
00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:02.710
fight it and try to kill it or you have
00:09:02.720 --> 00:09:04.470
to join sides with it. I think it's the
00:09:04.480 --> 00:09:05.750
alternative. I think institutions see
00:09:05.760 --> 00:09:07.110
the writing on the wall. I think they
00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:09.990
know fiat currency is on its way out. It
00:09:10.000 --> 00:09:11.990
was a trial and error run for the last
00:09:12.000 --> 00:09:13.430
hundred and some odd years that has
00:09:13.440 --> 00:09:15.829
failed the world's economy. It's time
00:09:15.839 --> 00:09:18.550
for solid hard money again and Bitcoin's
00:09:18.560 --> 00:09:20.310
the best solution.
00:09:20.320 --> 00:09:22.310
>> Well, and I think if you look at just
00:09:22.320 --> 00:09:23.910
the comparison, I'm looking at gold
00:09:23.920 --> 00:09:25.990
price right now on the daily and it's
00:09:26.000 --> 00:09:28.070
starting to dip down to its low again at
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around 4,300. Do you think gold dips
00:09:30.800 --> 00:09:33.829
below 4,000? I'm kind of curious.
00:09:33.839 --> 00:09:35.350
>> That's a a good question. And I actually
00:09:35.360 --> 00:09:36.790
haven't spent a lot of time here
00:09:36.800 --> 00:09:38.870
recently studying the gold charts, but I
00:09:38.880 --> 00:09:40.710
can take a quick look at it uh here with
00:09:40.720 --> 00:09:43.430
you. Um if you look at the chart here,
00:09:43.440 --> 00:09:45.269
we're actually kind of riding a level of
00:09:45.279 --> 00:09:47.509
resistance here. So if this is true,
00:09:47.519 --> 00:09:49.430
when these sell signals come in, the
00:09:49.440 --> 00:09:51.829
support trend line actually has gold
00:09:51.839 --> 00:09:54.150
potentially as low as 3700. So the
00:09:54.160 --> 00:09:57.750
answer would be yes, south of 4,000. Um
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in short though, everything's falling
00:09:59.440 --> 00:10:00.470
today. And of course, I don't know if
00:10:00.480 --> 00:10:02.230
this is part of the show, so if it is,
00:10:02.240 --> 00:10:04.150
you can interrupt me or get rid of this
00:10:04.160 --> 00:10:05.670
part of the show. But of course, we had
00:10:05.680 --> 00:10:07.430
those job numbers come out that un that
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unemployment levels have stayed the
00:10:08.880 --> 00:10:09.590
same.
00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:11.829
>> Uh if you look at any market now, Poly
00:10:11.839 --> 00:10:15.430
Market, uh Koshi, even the CME futures,
00:10:15.440 --> 00:10:17.829
we're now seeing heavy predictions uh
00:10:17.839 --> 00:10:19.509
that we're going to get rate hikes later
00:10:19.519 --> 00:10:22.710
this year. So oil is down, stocks are
00:10:22.720 --> 00:10:25.350
down, but so is gold. And of course,
00:10:25.360 --> 00:10:27.590
crypto is bleeding here pretty profusely
00:10:27.600 --> 00:10:28.230
today.
00:10:28.240 --> 00:10:30.230
>> For sure. Well, and I think the the
00:10:30.240 --> 00:10:32.870
challenge right now is cash seems to be
00:10:32.880 --> 00:10:34.550
moving to the sidelines very quickly,
00:10:34.560 --> 00:10:35.990
especially when you look at the S&P
00:10:36.000 --> 00:10:37.590
because even the S&P I think I had a
00:10:37.600 --> 00:10:39.829
tweet on this. Yeah, here it is. 650
00:10:39.839 --> 00:10:42.069
billion wiped off of the US stock
00:10:42.079 --> 00:10:44.230
market. That's today on the S&P 500
00:10:44.240 --> 00:10:45.750
>> that's been updated now. It's over 1
00:10:45.760 --> 00:10:46.630
trillion now.
00:10:46.640 --> 00:10:50.230
>> Yeah. So, we are talking about absolute,
00:10:50.240 --> 00:10:52.790
you know, uh carnage in the market. And
00:10:52.800 --> 00:10:55.030
I think when you cons you consider
00:10:55.040 --> 00:10:58.389
what's going on with the the major IPOs
00:10:58.399 --> 00:11:00.790
at least impending, my question, do you
00:11:00.800 --> 00:11:03.750
think people are selling off at this top
00:11:03.760 --> 00:11:07.509
right now on the S&P in preparation for
00:11:07.519 --> 00:11:09.509
potentially going into something like a
00:11:09.519 --> 00:11:13.190
SpaceX or an anthropic uh rollover uh in
00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:14.630
terms of an investment? What do you
00:11:14.640 --> 00:11:15.910
think?
00:11:15.920 --> 00:11:17.670
>> Yeah, I think it's a little too early to
00:11:17.680 --> 00:11:19.670
try to to pinpoint and say that people
00:11:19.680 --> 00:11:21.750
are taking massive profits yet. Clearly,
00:11:21.760 --> 00:11:23.350
people are taking profits. The stock
00:11:23.360 --> 00:11:25.269
market's coming down. The SPY is down,
00:11:25.279 --> 00:11:28.470
but we're talking about 1.5 or 1.6%. So,
00:11:28.480 --> 00:11:30.389
not really that much. Uh, as far as what
00:11:30.399 --> 00:11:31.670
they're going to go into next, at some
00:11:31.680 --> 00:11:33.350
point, I do think cash will roll over
00:11:33.360 --> 00:11:35.110
into cryptocurrency because again, it's
00:11:35.120 --> 00:11:37.030
still the emerging technology that has
00:11:37.040 --> 00:11:39.350
not had this massive run just yet. And,
00:11:39.360 --> 00:11:41.590
and I'm I'm talking I say crypto, let's
00:11:41.600 --> 00:11:44.230
be very specific, real world asset
00:11:44.240 --> 00:11:46.550
tokenization is the next big uh
00:11:46.560 --> 00:11:49.110
technology that has not had a massive
00:11:49.120 --> 00:11:50.949
investment and massive runup just yet.
00:11:50.959 --> 00:11:53.350
So, I do expect that to come at some
00:11:53.360 --> 00:11:55.670
point. Um, but is that yet? I don't
00:11:55.680 --> 00:11:57.670
know. Are we going into IPOs?
00:11:57.680 --> 00:11:59.829
Potentially. Uh, but I I I'm not going
00:11:59.839 --> 00:12:01.269
to sit here and pretend like I know
00:12:01.279 --> 00:12:02.870
information. I don't know.
00:12:02.880 --> 00:12:05.030
>> And you look at Ethereum in general.
00:12:05.040 --> 00:12:06.790
Let's kind of jump to that chart because
00:12:06.800 --> 00:12:08.870
this is one that gets a little bit more
00:12:08.880 --> 00:12:11.190
antsy. And, you know, listen, there's
00:12:11.200 --> 00:12:13.509
been some big proponents here recently
00:12:13.519 --> 00:12:15.590
that have jumped out of the Ethereum
00:12:15.600 --> 00:12:18.710
bandwagon uh for quite they and they've
00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:20.069
been on it for quite some time. I mean,
00:12:20.079 --> 00:12:21.590
Bankless is a good example. I'll talk to
00:12:21.600 --> 00:12:23.110
you about that in the in the, you know,
00:12:23.120 --> 00:12:24.389
in the lightning round to get your
00:12:24.399 --> 00:12:25.750
opinion on something. But when you look
00:12:25.760 --> 00:12:28.150
at the ETH chart,
00:12:28.160 --> 00:12:30.150
where does this thing stop?
00:12:30.160 --> 00:12:31.990
>> Yeah. When it comes to the ETH chart,
00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:34.069
uh, you know, I had a target of of
00:12:34.079 --> 00:12:37.190
conservatively $1,600. Of course, um, I
00:12:37.200 --> 00:12:39.670
think I said 1650 to be specific. There
00:12:39.680 --> 00:12:41.509
was a trend of support for Ethereum,
00:12:41.519 --> 00:12:42.790
which is kind of where that was coming
00:12:42.800 --> 00:12:45.350
from. That's been lost here today. I
00:12:45.360 --> 00:12:47.190
told people to the downside, that also
00:12:47.200 --> 00:12:48.870
was part of the the wedge pattern. I
00:12:48.880 --> 00:12:50.310
told people to the downside, you all of
00:12:50.320 --> 00:12:53.350
a sudden now have the potential for a
00:12:53.360 --> 00:12:55.990
bare flag situation all the way down to
00:12:56.000 --> 00:12:58.629
1,200. I think there's some interesting
00:12:58.639 --> 00:13:02.069
support around 1450 to 1500 in the short
00:13:02.079 --> 00:13:03.670
term. So kind of similar to like a
00:13:03.680 --> 00:13:07.990
Bitcoin um $58,000 support level. That's
00:13:08.000 --> 00:13:09.110
an interesting level here in the
00:13:09.120 --> 00:13:11.910
beginning, but I think Bitcoin to 53
00:13:11.920 --> 00:13:13.430
would probably equal at this point
00:13:13.440 --> 00:13:16.710
Ethereum to $1,200 or 1226.
00:13:16.720 --> 00:13:20.230
>> All right. So 53 on Bitcoin, 1,200 on
00:13:20.240 --> 00:13:22.870
Ethereum. And you look at this right
00:13:22.880 --> 00:13:25.910
now, if we get a macro relief, let's say
00:13:25.920 --> 00:13:27.829
for instance that we get a real deal
00:13:27.839 --> 00:13:29.750
coming out of Iran.
00:13:29.760 --> 00:13:30.230
>> Yeah.
00:13:30.240 --> 00:13:33.509
>> And you see energy correcting, uh it's
00:13:33.519 --> 00:13:35.110
likely that you would see money moving
00:13:35.120 --> 00:13:38.629
back into the S&P maybe. Or it could
00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:41.269
also be rotation time, you know, from
00:13:41.279 --> 00:13:43.670
dollars that are on the sidelines. Is
00:13:43.680 --> 00:13:46.389
that enough to move the crypto markets
00:13:46.399 --> 00:13:48.470
or do you feel like we still need the
00:13:48.480 --> 00:13:51.269
Clarity Act this summer in addition to
00:13:51.279 --> 00:13:54.150
the macro pressure to move the market?
00:13:54.160 --> 00:13:55.590
>> It it could be enough to get the ball
00:13:55.600 --> 00:13:57.350
rolling. It could be enough to start
00:13:57.360 --> 00:13:59.509
finding that bottom position, but I I've
00:13:59.519 --> 00:14:00.949
said even if the Clarity Act were to
00:14:00.959 --> 00:14:02.949
have passed in July, but the Iran war
00:14:02.959 --> 00:14:05.269
continues and economic uncertainty
00:14:05.279 --> 00:14:07.590
continues, that also would be stifling
00:14:07.600 --> 00:14:09.350
for crypto. Maybe maybe you could find a
00:14:09.360 --> 00:14:11.990
bottom. But until we have both clarity
00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:15.430
for regulation and economic it doesn't
00:14:15.440 --> 00:14:16.949
even need to be prosperity, just
00:14:16.959 --> 00:14:19.030
economic certainty like what do we what
00:14:19.040 --> 00:14:20.069
are we actually dealing with? Is
00:14:20.079 --> 00:14:21.910
inflation actually a problem? Are we
00:14:21.920 --> 00:14:23.030
going to raise rates? Are we going to
00:14:23.040 --> 00:14:25.189
cut rates? Once we start answering those
00:14:25.199 --> 00:14:27.910
types of questions now all of a sudden
00:14:27.920 --> 00:14:30.389
is when the emergence of cryptos bull
00:14:30.399 --> 00:14:32.629
market could get can get going. And
00:14:32.639 --> 00:14:34.550
that's again part of the reasons why
00:14:34.560 --> 00:14:37.350
I've now updated as of today my
00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:38.870
expectation of saying hey I think we
00:14:38.880 --> 00:14:40.949
could bottom here in the next week or so
00:14:40.959 --> 00:14:42.870
to now saying it's probably going to be
00:14:42.880 --> 00:14:44.470
I mean August at the earliest but
00:14:44.480 --> 00:14:46.790
realistically September or October is
00:14:46.800 --> 00:14:47.750
because
00:14:47.760 --> 00:14:50.550
>> as you get closer into the midterms you
00:14:50.560 --> 00:14:53.269
get more questions not less questions.
00:14:53.279 --> 00:14:54.870
So we already know the Clarity Act at
00:14:54.880 --> 00:14:56.870
this point realistically in the words of
00:14:56.880 --> 00:14:58.949
Senator Lumis isn't going to happen till
00:14:58.959 --> 00:15:01.670
August. extremely close to heavy
00:15:01.680 --> 00:15:04.150
campaigning time during midterms. And if
00:15:04.160 --> 00:15:05.910
you go back to 2024, and that's the most
00:15:05.920 --> 00:15:08.230
recent election period, we had a very
00:15:08.240 --> 00:15:11.430
sideways and downward summer of 24 with
00:15:11.440 --> 00:15:13.990
all of the uncertainty. It wasn't until
00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:15.829
Trump started pulling away in the polls
00:15:15.839 --> 00:15:17.350
and it started to feel more certain that
00:15:17.360 --> 00:15:18.949
Republicans were going to win and
00:15:18.959 --> 00:15:20.310
everyone perceived the Republican party
00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:22.150
as being the right party for the markets
00:15:22.160 --> 00:15:23.750
that that's finally when we bottomed out
00:15:23.760 --> 00:15:25.430
and markets started moving back towards
00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:27.110
the upside. I think it's going to be a
00:15:27.120 --> 00:15:29.430
very similar thing here where as long as
00:15:29.440 --> 00:15:31.829
you have uncertainty on the regulation
00:15:31.839 --> 00:15:34.389
or uncertainty on the economy and where
00:15:34.399 --> 00:15:36.230
it's going to be, it's going to be hard
00:15:36.240 --> 00:15:38.629
to get any real bullish momentum for
00:15:38.639 --> 00:15:41.509
risk assets like crypto.
00:15:41.519 --> 00:15:42.790
>> Well, you know, and it's interesting
00:15:42.800 --> 00:15:45.189
because Trump keeps touting that he's
00:15:45.199 --> 00:15:47.829
not going to let crypto down. Uh but at
00:15:47.839 --> 00:15:50.550
the same time, we continue to see hit
00:15:50.560 --> 00:15:52.470
after hit after hit
00:15:52.480 --> 00:15:54.949
>> uh on this market and it and it doesn't
00:15:54.959 --> 00:15:56.550
seem like it's stopping right now in
00:15:56.560 --> 00:15:57.829
terms of the kind of pressure we're
00:15:57.839 --> 00:15:59.350
seeing on clarity, what we're seeing
00:15:59.360 --> 00:16:01.189
obviously with the macro side. And now
00:16:01.199 --> 00:16:03.829
you add that on to the potential Fed
00:16:03.839 --> 00:16:06.790
change that we have underway with Worsh.
00:16:06.800 --> 00:16:08.629
This starts to change the dynamics very
00:16:08.639 --> 00:16:11.030
quickly almost on every asset class,
00:16:11.040 --> 00:16:12.949
including crypto. I want to go to a clip
00:16:12.959 --> 00:16:14.389
here because this is getting into
00:16:14.399 --> 00:16:16.310
whether or not we might get a rate hike.
00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:17.590
take a look.
00:16:17.600 --> 00:16:18.949
>> I think there actually could be one this
00:16:18.959 --> 00:16:21.269
year. Um and and for good reason.
00:16:21.279 --> 00:16:23.990
Inflation is clearly sticky. The debate
00:16:24.000 --> 00:16:26.069
had been is the labor market weakening
00:16:26.079 --> 00:16:27.990
or stabilizing. Now the debate is
00:16:28.000 --> 00:16:29.350
definitely going from is the labor
00:16:29.360 --> 00:16:32.389
market stabilizing to not overheating
00:16:32.399 --> 00:16:34.629
but sort of moving in in a in a strong
00:16:34.639 --> 00:16:37.030
and positive direction. So I think you
00:16:37.040 --> 00:16:38.629
you know it'd be unwise to take the
00:16:38.639 --> 00:16:40.550
construct of a hike off this year. And
00:16:40.560 --> 00:16:41.749
it wouldn't surprise me at all to see
00:16:41.759 --> 00:16:43.030
one at the end of the year. And yes, I'd
00:16:43.040 --> 00:16:45.030
probably be more likely than not that
00:16:45.040 --> 00:16:46.470
there'll be a hike at the end this year
00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:48.069
because I think that's what the numbers
00:16:48.079 --> 00:16:49.350
call for.
00:16:49.360 --> 00:16:50.790
>> All right, so there you have it, Tim. A
00:16:50.800 --> 00:16:52.230
hike at the end of the year. If that
00:16:52.240 --> 00:16:55.269
were to happen, if a hike comes and
00:16:55.279 --> 00:16:57.430
clarity doesn't go through and we're
00:16:57.440 --> 00:16:59.509
still stuck in this war,
00:16:59.519 --> 00:17:02.310
>> is that the ultimate triple threat to
00:17:02.320 --> 00:17:05.110
crypto in terms of just exceeding this
00:17:05.120 --> 00:17:07.909
bare market into 2027?
00:17:07.919 --> 00:17:09.270
Well, you know, there's this phrase that
00:17:09.280 --> 00:17:11.029
a lot of people, and by the way, myself
00:17:11.039 --> 00:17:12.069
included, so I'm not going to take
00:17:12.079 --> 00:17:13.750
myself out of the boat. I thought back
00:17:13.760 --> 00:17:15.669
in 2025, we could potentially be heading
00:17:15.679 --> 00:17:18.390
for a super cycle. Now, when the phrase
00:17:18.400 --> 00:17:20.309
super cycle gets utilized, everyone just
00:17:20.319 --> 00:17:22.069
assumes it's on the bullish side. The
00:17:22.079 --> 00:17:23.990
scenario you just painted, Paul, could
00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:25.829
bring a super cycle, just the opposite
00:17:25.839 --> 00:17:27.669
of what everyone wanted. It'd be a super
00:17:27.679 --> 00:17:29.669
bearish cycle. Yeah. I I don't think we
00:17:29.679 --> 00:17:31.669
bottom out. If there's no clarity and
00:17:31.679 --> 00:17:33.830
the war is still going on and there's
00:17:33.840 --> 00:17:35.510
chaos with the elections and everything
00:17:35.520 --> 00:17:37.270
else, yeah, I think very well we could
00:17:37.280 --> 00:17:38.870
be looking at and sorry, rate hikes as
00:17:38.880 --> 00:17:40.470
well. We could be looking at an extended
00:17:40.480 --> 00:17:43.270
bare market into early 27 and there's
00:17:43.280 --> 00:17:45.350
our super cycle.
00:17:45.360 --> 00:17:49.430
>> Listen, uh you and I uh have talked
00:17:49.440 --> 00:17:51.830
about Salana a lot. We were we were on a
00:17:51.840 --> 00:17:54.870
call just like this at about $8 once.
00:17:54.880 --> 00:17:57.190
>> Yeah, we were. And uh you know here we
00:17:57.200 --> 00:18:00.470
are again uh looking at Salana taking
00:18:00.480 --> 00:18:03.750
another hit. So when you look at Salana
00:18:03.760 --> 00:18:06.230
and where its position is
00:18:06.240 --> 00:18:08.070
>> now the last time Salana really took a
00:18:08.080 --> 00:18:09.990
hit was during FTX
00:18:10.000 --> 00:18:11.750
>> that you know that's under under the
00:18:11.760 --> 00:18:13.909
bridge. We've seen an unbelievable
00:18:13.919 --> 00:18:15.590
amount of advancements in the tech and
00:18:15.600 --> 00:18:17.190
the team and what they've been able to
00:18:17.200 --> 00:18:19.430
do with Salana Foundation and so on.
00:18:19.440 --> 00:18:21.510
Where do you think Salana stands by end
00:18:21.520 --> 00:18:25.029
of year? Where would you put this one?
00:18:25.039 --> 00:18:27.110
I mean it depends on a lot of those s
00:18:27.120 --> 00:18:28.789
situations and scenarios we just talked
00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:29.590
through. Uh
00:18:29.600 --> 00:18:32.230
>> let's paint it into the 53k and 1,200
00:18:32.240 --> 00:18:33.350
ETH scenario.
00:18:33.360 --> 00:18:35.510
>> Yeah, if you go to my screen here,
00:18:35.520 --> 00:18:36.390
there's some interesting things
00:18:36.400 --> 00:18:37.669
happening on the Salana chart at the
00:18:37.679 --> 00:18:40.230
moment. You know, I was ridiculed by a
00:18:40.240 --> 00:18:41.590
lot of people on the internet talking
00:18:41.600 --> 00:18:44.310
about $60 to $50 on Salana. You know, of
00:18:44.320 --> 00:18:46.150
course, at this time, as I'm saying it,
00:18:46.160 --> 00:18:48.630
the price is hovering between 90 closer
00:18:48.640 --> 00:18:50.950
to $100 and people think I'm crazy for
00:18:50.960 --> 00:18:52.310
talking about these types of pullbacks.
00:18:52.320 --> 00:18:54.150
today it doesn't seem so crazy at the
00:18:54.160 --> 00:18:56.310
moment as you're looking uh Salana today
00:18:56.320 --> 00:18:59.830
got all the way down to $63 per coin and
00:18:59.840 --> 00:19:01.830
like I said with Bitcoin and Ethereum I
00:19:01.840 --> 00:19:03.350
don't think that we are done with this
00:19:03.360 --> 00:19:05.830
move so all of a sudden that $60 mark
00:19:05.840 --> 00:19:08.070
looks extremely good and because of
00:19:08.080 --> 00:19:10.230
where we are I kind of again I see that
00:19:10.240 --> 00:19:14.230
$60 move as like the Bitcoin um 58 or
00:19:14.240 --> 00:19:17.350
the Ethereum $1,500 call
00:19:17.360 --> 00:19:19.510
>> now all of a sudden the situation's kind
00:19:19.520 --> 00:19:21.830
of coming to fruition here I think the
00:19:21.840 --> 00:19:23.909
$50 call that I've made again months ago
00:19:23.919 --> 00:19:26.470
as a possibility that becomes my if
00:19:26.480 --> 00:19:28.630
Bitcoin hits 53 and if Ethereum drops
00:19:28.640 --> 00:19:30.870
all the way to 1,200 more than likely
00:19:30.880 --> 00:19:33.590
Salana also drops towards $50. And
00:19:33.600 --> 00:19:35.350
interestingly as you're looking at trend
00:19:35.360 --> 00:19:37.029
lines developing here obviously a
00:19:37.039 --> 00:19:39.110
long-term support trend line now we're
00:19:39.120 --> 00:19:41.110
watching here for Salana long-term
00:19:41.120 --> 00:19:42.789
resistance trend line from these highs
00:19:42.799 --> 00:19:44.630
back in September. We're in a falling
00:19:44.640 --> 00:19:46.710
wedge pattern. So this falling wedge
00:19:46.720 --> 00:19:48.070
pattern if we lose the support level
00:19:48.080 --> 00:19:49.830
okay then we'll have to address what the
00:19:49.840 --> 00:19:50.950
next low could be. It's probably going
00:19:50.960 --> 00:19:53.270
to be in the world of $30, but this is
00:19:53.280 --> 00:19:55.350
actually a good case right here. Uh to
00:19:55.360 --> 00:19:57.510
my point, Solana could probably get down
00:19:57.520 --> 00:19:59.510
here to 60, have a nice little bounce,
00:19:59.520 --> 00:20:01.110
maybe even bounce it way back up towards
00:20:01.120 --> 00:20:04.310
75 and then not actually hit that $50
00:20:04.320 --> 00:20:06.630
call until much later. Guess when?
00:20:06.640 --> 00:20:08.950
September October area and then have our
00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:10.470
bullish breakout later on.
00:20:10.480 --> 00:20:12.950
>> Interesting. Okay. All right. So 50
00:20:12.960 --> 00:20:15.830
possibly a 60 uh supplement there. When
00:20:15.840 --> 00:20:17.430
I was looking at Salana, of course,
00:20:17.440 --> 00:20:19.830
we've seen probably the most bearish
00:20:19.840 --> 00:20:21.669
volume sentiment we've seen in a very
00:20:21.679 --> 00:20:23.510
long time on our own indicator at about
00:20:23.520 --> 00:20:26.870
11%. So that and and that's after 5 days
00:20:26.880 --> 00:20:28.630
of pretty significant falling in terms
00:20:28.640 --> 00:20:29.590
of Salana.
00:20:29.600 --> 00:20:30.630
>> You you know what's also interesting
00:20:30.640 --> 00:20:32.310
here, Paul? I think that this actually
00:20:32.320 --> 00:20:33.830
in a very I'm going to make a really
00:20:33.840 --> 00:20:35.350
this is like you know in politics you
00:20:35.360 --> 00:20:36.950
you have the spin cycle, right? You how
00:20:36.960 --> 00:20:38.470
you spin something really negative to
00:20:38.480 --> 00:20:40.070
sound positive. But I I don't think I'm
00:20:40.080 --> 00:20:42.149
spinning. I'm I'm cognistically. Have
00:20:42.159 --> 00:20:44.789
you seen a headline in the last month
00:20:44.799 --> 00:20:46.950
that someone says, "Yeah, Salana's dead.
00:20:46.960 --> 00:20:49.029
Salana doesn't work. It's gonna fall
00:20:49.039 --> 00:20:49.830
out."
00:20:49.840 --> 00:20:51.669
>> I haven't seen a single one. There's no
00:20:51.679 --> 00:20:53.029
news on Salana.
00:20:53.039 --> 00:20:55.270
>> Here's my theory as to why Salana's
00:20:55.280 --> 00:20:56.789
bleeding so badly because it's also not
00:20:56.799 --> 00:20:59.190
performing well. When everything is
00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:01.830
build being built on a certain platform
00:21:01.840 --> 00:21:04.630
in a ecosystem and that ecosystem is not
00:21:04.640 --> 00:21:06.390
performing well, why wouldn't the thing
00:21:06.400 --> 00:21:08.070
that everyone built it on be suffering
00:21:08.080 --> 00:21:10.149
as well? Everybody wants to use Salana
00:21:10.159 --> 00:21:11.350
to build their coins and build their
00:21:11.360 --> 00:21:13.350
cryptocurrency and real world assets are
00:21:13.360 --> 00:21:14.470
being funneled through there as well.
00:21:14.480 --> 00:21:16.390
So, we're in a system that's not
00:21:16.400 --> 00:21:17.990
performing well. Everything was built
00:21:18.000 --> 00:21:19.750
there. Of course, Salana is going to
00:21:19.760 --> 00:21:20.549
drop,
00:21:20.559 --> 00:21:23.270
>> but when everything starts to flow back,
00:21:23.280 --> 00:21:25.590
everyone built on Salana. It's also
00:21:25.600 --> 00:21:27.510
going to be one of the next highf flyers
00:21:27.520 --> 00:21:30.710
when bullish momentum comes.
00:21:30.720 --> 00:21:32.789
>> Yeah, I think you're exactly right. And
00:21:32.799 --> 00:21:34.950
I think the high in in reference to high
00:21:34.960 --> 00:21:36.870
flyers, I think the the opportunity here
00:21:36.880 --> 00:21:39.590
on the upside is is pretty significant.
00:21:39.600 --> 00:21:41.669
>> Okay, one other uh token I want to get
00:21:41.679 --> 00:21:44.230
into in terms of a chart is Zcash.
00:21:44.240 --> 00:21:46.950
>> Um big hit on them on the privacy token
00:21:46.960 --> 00:21:48.630
when you look at at what's going on.
00:21:48.640 --> 00:21:50.470
They had a security researcher basically
00:21:50.480 --> 00:21:52.710
using Claude Opus 4.8. This is available
00:21:52.720 --> 00:21:54.710
to pretty much anyone
00:21:54.720 --> 00:21:57.430
>> uh that would enable you to to
00:21:57.440 --> 00:22:00.870
essentially almost mint unlimited.
00:22:00.880 --> 00:22:01.190
>> Yeah. Yeah.
00:22:01.200 --> 00:22:03.029
>> And this of course gets into a problem
00:22:03.039 --> 00:22:04.070
where we're going to see a lot of
00:22:04.080 --> 00:22:07.909
blockchains facing AI analysis for a lot
00:22:07.919 --> 00:22:10.470
of these uh essentially loopholes and
00:22:10.480 --> 00:22:12.310
these you know these back doors in
00:22:12.320 --> 00:22:13.350
essence
00:22:13.360 --> 00:22:15.190
>> when you look at something like Zcash I
00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:17.590
mean would this be would you stay or
00:22:17.600 --> 00:22:20.070
look at any privacy tokens right now
00:22:20.080 --> 00:22:21.830
with based on what happened with with
00:22:21.840 --> 00:22:23.750
Zcash?
00:22:23.760 --> 00:22:26.230
>> Well I I wouldn't throw the the baby out
00:22:26.240 --> 00:22:27.750
with the bath water and say every
00:22:27.760 --> 00:22:29.510
privacy token is at problems. I think
00:22:29.520 --> 00:22:31.669
this problem was specifically a Zcash
00:22:31.679 --> 00:22:33.669
problem and Zcash's team is going to
00:22:33.679 --> 00:22:36.149
have to work very hard to answer some
00:22:36.159 --> 00:22:38.070
questions and make sure that they fix
00:22:38.080 --> 00:22:41.029
the problems here. Um, interestingly,
00:22:41.039 --> 00:22:43.029
you know, this is something I did not
00:22:43.039 --> 00:22:44.549
think we would make money on it this
00:22:44.559 --> 00:22:47.590
fast, but we literally two days ago,
00:22:47.600 --> 00:22:49.350
right before this whole thing crashed,
00:22:49.360 --> 00:22:51.190
told our community, then if you go to
00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:52.470
our chart, you can take a look here at
00:22:52.480 --> 00:22:53.830
what we were looking at. These are our
00:22:53.840 --> 00:22:55.510
indicators here. We identified, let me
00:22:55.520 --> 00:22:57.190
turn this off for just a second. We
00:22:57.200 --> 00:22:58.950
identified a head and shoulders pattern.
00:22:58.960 --> 00:23:00.470
Okay, head and shoulders pattern for
00:23:00.480 --> 00:23:01.590
those who don't know what that is.
00:23:01.600 --> 00:23:03.750
That's simply a lower left shoulder, a
00:23:03.760 --> 00:23:06.070
middle high peak called the head, and
00:23:06.080 --> 00:23:07.750
then a lower right shoulder. Okay, head
00:23:07.760 --> 00:23:08.950
and shoulders pattern. We have a trend
00:23:08.960 --> 00:23:10.470
line right here. And I told the
00:23:10.480 --> 00:23:12.470
audience, I said, "Okay, this should
00:23:12.480 --> 00:23:15.270
probably put us safely down to 392, but
00:23:15.280 --> 00:23:17.029
there's a massive order block." When I
00:23:17.039 --> 00:23:18.710
turn on my indicators down here, there's
00:23:18.720 --> 00:23:21.029
a massive order block somewhere between
00:23:21.039 --> 00:23:25.110
275 to 228 middle point here around 3 or
00:23:25.120 --> 00:23:27.750
252. I told our community to look for a
00:23:27.760 --> 00:23:29.270
trade down to these levels with a
00:23:29.280 --> 00:23:31.669
confirmed breakout. Sure enough, this
00:23:31.679 --> 00:23:33.190
trade, Paul, this trade should have
00:23:33.200 --> 00:23:34.470
taken like a week and a half to two
00:23:34.480 --> 00:23:36.149
weeks. Like, I was expecting a pullback
00:23:36.159 --> 00:23:39.270
on Zcash, just not over a matter of less
00:23:39.280 --> 00:23:42.149
than 48 hours. And sure enough, both
00:23:42.159 --> 00:23:43.669
those signals we called for got hit
00:23:43.679 --> 00:23:44.230
here.
00:23:44.240 --> 00:23:46.230
>> Well, this is I mean, this is obviously
00:23:46.240 --> 00:23:48.470
sentiment reaction to all of this. So,
00:23:48.480 --> 00:23:50.070
that's not something you can call on a
00:23:50.080 --> 00:23:52.549
chart. So, it's not like a scenario.
00:23:52.559 --> 00:23:55.270
>> Speed the speed of it was crazy. the the
00:23:55.280 --> 00:23:57.029
numbers were solid. And that's why I
00:23:57.039 --> 00:23:59.350
don't I'm not ready to give up on Zcash
00:23:59.360 --> 00:24:02.470
fundamentally all the way around because
00:24:02.480 --> 00:24:04.710
yes, it fell very quickly. Yes, it was
00:24:04.720 --> 00:24:06.630
aggressive. But you pull up the charts
00:24:06.640 --> 00:24:09.029
and these were two easily identifiable
00:24:09.039 --> 00:24:11.510
levels of support, not only down where
00:24:11.520 --> 00:24:13.990
we w to, but right now we're camping out
00:24:14.000 --> 00:24:15.430
like where we're coming back up to and
00:24:15.440 --> 00:24:17.669
bouncing. We identified these levels two
00:24:17.679 --> 00:24:20.310
days ago on our live show as interesting
00:24:20.320 --> 00:24:21.909
level to keep an eye on for downward
00:24:21.919 --> 00:24:24.549
movement. So that to me tells me, okay,
00:24:24.559 --> 00:24:26.789
Zcash had a problem and people freaked
00:24:26.799 --> 00:24:29.029
out. But fundamentally, we guess where
00:24:29.039 --> 00:24:30.549
people had their buy signals ready to
00:24:30.559 --> 00:24:32.549
execute on traditional technical
00:24:32.559 --> 00:24:34.070
analysis, meaning people aren't just
00:24:34.080 --> 00:24:36.549
panic selling and running away. There's
00:24:36.559 --> 00:24:38.310
still some reasoning happening here.
00:24:38.320 --> 00:24:40.230
>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, and that will be the
00:24:40.240 --> 00:24:41.990
question is how does this one uh land
00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:44.710
up. All right, man. Let's get into uh
00:24:44.720 --> 00:24:48.070
the lightning round real quick. Um,
00:24:48.080 --> 00:24:49.990
>> I'm gonna start off with this one right
00:24:50.000 --> 00:24:51.750
here, which is who deserves more blame
00:24:51.760 --> 00:24:53.830
for crypto's crash right now, Trump
00:24:53.840 --> 00:24:55.830
failing Clarity or Sailor dumping
00:24:55.840 --> 00:24:58.710
Bitcoin? What do you think?
00:24:58.720 --> 00:25:00.230
>> Yeah. No, I I think you got to go Trump
00:25:00.240 --> 00:25:02.070
failing clarity because Sailor dumps
00:25:02.080 --> 00:25:06.230
Bitcoin is probably more of a a side
00:25:06.240 --> 00:25:08.390
effect of clarity not coming.
00:25:08.400 --> 00:25:11.029
>> Yeah. Yeah. I think Trump uh has
00:25:11.039 --> 00:25:13.430
completely lost the script here when it
00:25:13.440 --> 00:25:14.470
comes to
00:25:14.480 --> 00:25:15.269
>> Yeah.
00:25:15.279 --> 00:25:17.990
>> crypto. It does not look good. Uh,
00:25:18.000 --> 00:25:19.830
Congress has secretly been shorting the
00:25:19.840 --> 00:25:21.750
market knowing that clarity has no
00:25:21.760 --> 00:25:23.350
chance. Do you think that's happening?
00:25:23.360 --> 00:25:25.110
>> Oh, I I think that's false. Now, could
00:25:25.120 --> 00:25:26.470
you say that they might be secretly
00:25:26.480 --> 00:25:28.549
shorting the market? That would be true.
00:25:28.559 --> 00:25:29.750
But the reasoning they think that
00:25:29.760 --> 00:25:31.510
clarity has no chance. I don't think so.
00:25:31.520 --> 00:25:33.269
I think it's still going to pass at some
00:25:33.279 --> 00:25:35.510
point. The question is when?
00:25:35.520 --> 00:25:37.590
>> Yeah.
00:25:37.600 --> 00:25:38.870
I'm going to go to the other side. I
00:25:38.880 --> 00:25:39.350
think it's
00:25:39.360 --> 00:25:41.269
>> all right. Conspiracy. You need Listen,
00:25:41.279 --> 00:25:43.190
where's your Tim hat? You need
00:25:43.200 --> 00:25:45.510
>> my Tim foil hat here. That's right.
00:25:45.520 --> 00:25:47.830
Okay, we'll call it the I don't know
00:25:47.840 --> 00:25:50.630
what we'll call it. There's no good news
00:25:50.640 --> 00:25:53.269
coming in the next 30 gre 30 days. Agree
00:25:53.279 --> 00:25:54.390
or disagree?
00:25:54.400 --> 00:25:56.789
>> Disagree. And and the my reason for
00:25:56.799 --> 00:25:58.710
disagreeing is that that's how
00:25:58.720 --> 00:26:00.710
manipulation works is they play with
00:26:00.720 --> 00:26:02.950
your emotions at all times, back and
00:26:02.960 --> 00:26:04.710
forth and back and forth. We just got a
00:26:04.720 --> 00:26:06.470
massive drop.
00:26:06.480 --> 00:26:07.750
>> They're going to play with our emotions,
00:26:07.760 --> 00:26:09.590
giving us a ray of hope here in the next
00:26:09.600 --> 00:26:10.310
30 days.
00:26:10.320 --> 00:26:10.950
>> Yeah, I agree.
00:26:10.960 --> 00:26:12.789
>> But will that will it will it lead us
00:26:12.799 --> 00:26:15.029
back to above 80K? highly unlikely.
00:26:15.039 --> 00:26:17.350
>> Yeah, I agree in the sense that we
00:26:17.360 --> 00:26:20.070
disagree on no good news coming there.
00:26:20.080 --> 00:26:21.430
We we're gonna get some.
00:26:21.440 --> 00:26:22.710
>> All right. I'm not worried about
00:26:22.720 --> 00:26:24.710
strategy at all. And we're talking about
00:26:24.720 --> 00:26:26.630
micro strategy.
00:26:26.640 --> 00:26:28.310
>> I'd say put me in the middle on that
00:26:28.320 --> 00:26:31.029
one. I'm not ready to say uh I am really
00:26:31.039 --> 00:26:33.510
worried, but I think it's foolish to not
00:26:33.520 --> 00:26:36.149
be worried at all. I mean, at a certain
00:26:36.159 --> 00:26:38.070
point, the numbers do work out that he
00:26:38.080 --> 00:26:40.149
has to pay back things. So, if we drop
00:26:40.159 --> 00:26:41.830
to a certain level, he's going to have
00:26:41.840 --> 00:26:42.870
to pay back.
00:26:42.880 --> 00:26:44.549
>> Yeah.
00:26:44.559 --> 00:26:46.070
Um,
00:26:46.080 --> 00:26:47.990
>> yeah. I don't know if I'm in the middle
00:26:48.000 --> 00:26:49.830
or if I agree. I'm not I'm not worried
00:26:49.840 --> 00:26:51.990
about No, I disagree. I I am worried
00:26:52.000 --> 00:26:54.310
about it. I am worried about it.
00:26:54.320 --> 00:26:57.110
>> Um, magic wand. You could only fix one.
00:26:57.120 --> 00:26:59.830
Clarity passes or an Iranian pace peace
00:26:59.840 --> 00:27:06.390
deal.
00:27:06.400 --> 00:27:08.950
>> That's a hard one because I do I do
00:27:08.960 --> 00:27:11.430
think Iran is running out of firepower.
00:27:11.440 --> 00:27:13.190
I I do think that there's a level
00:27:13.200 --> 00:27:14.549
there's a there's a point where Iran
00:27:14.559 --> 00:27:16.630
just can't do anything by themselves.
00:27:16.640 --> 00:27:18.390
But I think there's a world in which you
00:27:18.400 --> 00:27:20.149
still see successful crypto without
00:27:20.159 --> 00:27:22.390
clarity. Um we need peace though. I
00:27:22.400 --> 00:27:24.230
think economic uncertainty is the bigger
00:27:24.240 --> 00:27:24.710
problem.
00:27:24.720 --> 00:27:26.470
>> You and I are on the same ride. Right.
00:27:26.480 --> 00:27:29.750
No more peace. No no wars. Uh conspiracy
00:27:29.760 --> 00:27:32.630
theory. Here we go. Charles Hoskinson
00:27:32.640 --> 00:27:35.669
>> is secretly shorting ADA
00:27:35.679 --> 00:27:37.590
>> knowing his video would crash the joke.
00:27:37.600 --> 00:27:39.830
And of course, we saw
00:27:39.840 --> 00:27:41.750
um I mean I can play the rant if you
00:27:41.760 --> 00:27:42.390
want to hear it.
00:27:42.400 --> 00:27:43.750
>> I've listened to it. I don't know if
00:27:43.760 --> 00:27:45.190
people want to hear it again, but I've
00:27:45.200 --> 00:27:47.590
heard it. It was intense.
00:27:47.600 --> 00:27:50.310
>> Um I'm not ready to say that he was
00:27:50.320 --> 00:27:53.669
shorting it. Um I would, you know, I
00:27:53.679 --> 00:27:55.269
would pay big money to see Paul and
00:27:55.279 --> 00:27:56.630
there's no way this will ever happen. So
00:27:56.640 --> 00:27:58.310
maybe someone can use AI and just make
00:27:58.320 --> 00:28:00.630
it for us. I would love to see Charles
00:28:00.640 --> 00:28:03.269
Hoskinson on your show and you ask him
00:28:03.279 --> 00:28:04.710
that question.
00:28:04.720 --> 00:28:05.750
>> He's been on my show.
00:28:05.760 --> 00:28:07.590
>> He's been on my show. Would he come on
00:28:07.600 --> 00:28:08.950
your show after
00:28:08.960 --> 00:28:10.710
>> after now? I don't think so. We'll put a
00:28:10.720 --> 00:28:12.389
we'll put an invite out to Charles if
00:28:12.399 --> 00:28:13.350
you're listening. You're more than
00:28:13.360 --> 00:28:15.350
welcome to come on and answer to prove
00:28:15.360 --> 00:28:17.750
me wrong that uh you weren't shorting
00:28:17.760 --> 00:28:21.510
the token uh or you know, we'll see.
00:28:21.520 --> 00:28:23.430
Hey, which civil war breaks out first?
00:28:23.440 --> 00:28:25.990
Do you think Bitcoin below 30K civil war
00:28:26.000 --> 00:28:30.070
or XRP below 50K? Uh 50 cents
00:28:30.080 --> 00:28:31.029
>> first.
00:28:31.039 --> 00:28:31.590
>> Oh man.
00:28:31.600 --> 00:28:33.990
>> Which one? First. When you say civil
00:28:34.000 --> 00:28:35.029
war, you just mean like people like
00:28:35.039 --> 00:28:36.470
arguing about what's going to happen,
00:28:36.480 --> 00:28:39.269
>> you know, core core holders, devs, you
00:28:39.279 --> 00:28:41.510
know, just literally starting to
00:28:41.520 --> 00:28:43.190
>> Oh, you're saying a civil war would
00:28:43.200 --> 00:28:44.870
break out because the price goes below
00:28:44.880 --> 00:28:45.830
these levels.
00:28:45.840 --> 00:28:48.549
>> Not not a literal civil war like
00:28:48.559 --> 00:28:49.990
physical. I'm talking about within the
00:28:50.000 --> 00:28:51.029
communities.
00:28:51.039 --> 00:28:53.190
>> Yeah. Civil war within the communities.
00:28:53.200 --> 00:28:54.470
>> You think you think it would be a
00:28:54.480 --> 00:28:59.190
Bitcoin under 30 or or an XRP under 50?
00:28:59.200 --> 00:29:00.710
So, I I'm going to go with I'm going to
00:29:00.720 --> 00:29:03.269
go with XRP below 50 cents. And the
00:29:03.279 --> 00:29:04.389
reason why is because even though I
00:29:04.399 --> 00:29:05.750
don't think Bitcoin needs to go below
00:29:05.760 --> 00:29:08.149
30K in theory, if Bitcoin matched a
00:29:08.159 --> 00:29:09.830
previous bare market, 30K would be about
00:29:09.840 --> 00:29:10.549
the right level.
00:29:10.559 --> 00:29:11.830
>> Yeah, I would agree. I think there'd be
00:29:11.840 --> 00:29:14.389
big problems in the XRP army if uh 50
00:29:14.399 --> 00:29:16.149
cents is brought back.
00:29:16.159 --> 00:29:19.590
>> Uh if SpaceX IPO stays above three
00:29:19.600 --> 00:29:21.350
trillion,
00:29:21.360 --> 00:29:24.149
tax the billionaires narrative starts to
00:29:24.159 --> 00:29:25.830
skyrocket. Do you think that would
00:29:25.840 --> 00:29:26.710
happen?
00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:28.950
>> Absolutely. cuz it's already I feel like
00:29:28.960 --> 00:29:30.710
when we say it starts to skyrocket
00:29:30.720 --> 00:29:32.950
that's already a pretty big
00:29:32.960 --> 00:29:35.269
>> and it's at 1.8 to 2 trillion possibly
00:29:35.279 --> 00:29:35.830
more.
00:29:35.840 --> 00:29:37.590
>> I agree we're going to see this just
00:29:37.600 --> 00:29:38.470
more and more.
00:29:38.480 --> 00:29:39.750
>> We got we got politicians out here
00:29:39.760 --> 00:29:42.389
wanting to tax AI 50%. So
00:29:42.399 --> 00:29:43.110
>> yeah. Yeah.
00:29:43.120 --> 00:29:43.909
>> Yeah.
00:29:43.919 --> 00:29:47.269
>> Tron flipped Salana.
00:29:47.279 --> 00:29:48.549
>> Oh, I don't even know. I don't pay
00:29:48.559 --> 00:29:49.909
attention to Tron as much. You think
00:29:49.919 --> 00:29:56.149
Salana's not done yet?
00:29:56.159 --> 00:29:59.350
I'm I'm gonna be wrong probably, but let
00:29:59.360 --> 00:30:01.350
me just say no. I think Salana stays
00:30:01.360 --> 00:30:02.149
above it.
00:30:02.159 --> 00:30:03.830
>> All right, I'm in the no camp as well
00:30:03.840 --> 00:30:06.789
for I don't think they flip Salana.
00:30:06.799 --> 00:30:08.950
>> Sailor selling Bitcoin to maximize
00:30:08.960 --> 00:30:13.110
shareholder value proves anything else
00:30:13.120 --> 00:30:17.190
is possible and on the table.
00:30:17.200 --> 00:30:18.870
>> That's an interesting question. I think
00:30:18.880 --> 00:30:20.630
I understand what it's asking. But
00:30:20.640 --> 00:30:22.950
meaning we're not done with crazy things
00:30:22.960 --> 00:30:23.909
breaking. Yes.
00:30:23.919 --> 00:30:25.590
>> Yeah. We're not done. Yeah. Agreed.
00:30:25.600 --> 00:30:27.029
>> Yeah. Okay. That's all right. We're on
00:30:27.039 --> 00:30:27.830
the same. Yeah. I think
00:30:27.840 --> 00:30:29.110
>> Yeah. Yeah. Pretty much that that just
00:30:29.120 --> 00:30:31.430
says we we're another crazy story out of
00:30:31.440 --> 00:30:32.470
left field could happen.
00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:33.110
>> Yeah.
00:30:33.120 --> 00:30:34.470
>> Yeah. That's I agree.
00:30:34.480 --> 00:30:35.990
>> You agree? All right. So, I'm in
00:30:36.000 --> 00:30:37.350
agreement with that. I don't think I
00:30:37.360 --> 00:30:39.510
don't think he will this will do
00:30:39.520 --> 00:30:41.269
anything to he will do anything to
00:30:41.279 --> 00:30:43.190
maximize. What do you think about this?
00:30:43.200 --> 00:30:44.870
You think the Coinbase app will freeze
00:30:44.880 --> 00:30:47.029
in the next 24 hours with the current
00:30:47.039 --> 00:30:51.190
market falling? If if we crash more and
00:30:51.200 --> 00:30:54.070
start heading towards 53 tonight, yes.
00:30:54.080 --> 00:30:57.430
Um but at our current level and current
00:30:57.440 --> 00:30:59.029
rate, I don't think so. But it it
00:30:59.039 --> 00:31:00.230
depends on how low we get. So I'll say
00:31:00.240 --> 00:31:02.870
sub 53,000. Yes. As long as you stay
00:31:02.880 --> 00:31:04.070
above it, no.
00:31:04.080 --> 00:31:05.190
>> All right. I would agree.
00:31:05.200 --> 00:31:06.470
>> Put me a no. Put me a no.
00:31:06.480 --> 00:31:08.389
>> I would Okay. So no.
00:31:08.399 --> 00:31:09.430
>> Yeah. Yes.
00:31:09.440 --> 00:31:12.149
>> Uh I would be in the middle. I think a I
00:31:12.159 --> 00:31:14.870
think a sub Yeah, I think you're right.
00:31:14.880 --> 00:31:18.070
I think if we get into a 53 uh range, we
00:31:18.080 --> 00:31:20.470
will see a crash uh potentially because
00:31:20.480 --> 00:31:21.830
the amount of trading that's going to
00:31:21.840 --> 00:31:24.070
happen around 53 is going to be crazy.
00:31:24.080 --> 00:31:28.230
>> Uh Bankless was right on exiting ETH a
00:31:28.240 --> 00:31:29.269
week and a half ago.
00:31:29.279 --> 00:31:30.470
>> Yeah, I think they're I think they're
00:31:30.480 --> 00:31:31.750
going to Well, I mean, it depends on
00:31:31.760 --> 00:31:33.110
what they get into, but let's say no,
00:31:33.120 --> 00:31:34.710
they were not right to do that though
00:31:34.720 --> 00:31:35.909
because I think there will be a bounce
00:31:35.919 --> 00:31:37.590
back up. But if they go in and say,
00:31:37.600 --> 00:31:39.190
"Well, now we're all in on Salana," then
00:31:39.200 --> 00:31:40.310
I might have an argument to say they
00:31:40.320 --> 00:31:41.590
were right. But let's see what their
00:31:41.600 --> 00:31:42.870
next move is.
00:31:42.880 --> 00:31:44.230
>> Yeah, I don't know on that one. And I'm
00:31:44.240 --> 00:31:45.430
not going to answer because I just don't
00:31:45.440 --> 00:31:47.029
know if they were right or wrong.
00:31:47.039 --> 00:31:47.350
>> Yeah.
00:31:47.360 --> 00:31:50.149
>> 2x price prediction from Arthur Hayes
00:31:50.159 --> 00:31:53.350
means he'll dump at 20%.
00:31:53.360 --> 00:31:55.590
>> And this is Listen guys, this should be
00:31:55.600 --> 00:31:58.549
a learning point for everybody. Is that
00:31:58.559 --> 00:32:00.950
when you hear a major influencer say
00:32:00.960 --> 00:32:03.830
we're going to see something go 2x
00:32:03.840 --> 00:32:06.149
figure you're going to be considerably
00:32:06.159 --> 00:32:08.789
lower that before an exit. So just
00:32:08.799 --> 00:32:11.029
always keep that in mind. 2x means
00:32:11.039 --> 00:32:13.909
really you know 20% 30%. What do you
00:32:13.919 --> 00:32:14.549
think? Yes. No.
00:32:14.559 --> 00:32:16.310
>> I I I talked about Arthur in my show
00:32:16.320 --> 00:32:18.230
yesterday. I like that Arthur is
00:32:18.240 --> 00:32:19.590
constantly changing his mind on things
00:32:19.600 --> 00:32:20.630
when new information comes out.
00:32:20.640 --> 00:32:21.669
>> He does change his mind,
00:32:21.679 --> 00:32:23.669
>> but he changes his mind a lot. So, let's
00:32:23.679 --> 00:32:26.630
say for the sake of the joke. Yes. I I
00:32:26.640 --> 00:32:28.549
do think Arthur Hayes rarely like he
00:32:28.559 --> 00:32:30.549
called for a Bitcoin to like 200,000 by
00:32:30.559 --> 00:32:33.350
the end of 25
00:32:33.360 --> 00:32:33.990
year.
00:32:34.000 --> 00:32:36.070
>> He changes his calls all the time. Yeah.
00:32:36.080 --> 00:32:37.990
>> Yeah. It's all over the place, which is
00:32:38.000 --> 00:32:40.230
really the point is that you just need
00:32:40.240 --> 00:32:43.350
to follow the news, stay fundamental,
00:32:43.360 --> 00:32:45.669
and look at long-term narratives and
00:32:45.679 --> 00:32:46.870
make sure they match up with your
00:32:46.880 --> 00:32:48.710
investment thesis. You know, if you're a
00:32:48.720 --> 00:32:50.950
tech investor, if you're a next
00:32:50.960 --> 00:32:52.630
generation investor looking for
00:32:52.640 --> 00:32:54.149
long-term gains, or if you're somebody
00:32:54.159 --> 00:32:56.789
that's trading volatility, you know,
00:32:56.799 --> 00:32:58.310
trading volatility right now, you're
00:32:58.320 --> 00:33:00.310
going to be making a lot of money in
00:33:00.320 --> 00:33:03.029
this market today as it is. So whether
00:33:03.039 --> 00:33:04.710
you're shorting or you're in a position
00:33:04.720 --> 00:33:06.950
to to buy these dips and and look for
00:33:06.960 --> 00:33:09.110
market moves. So definitely a good one.
00:33:09.120 --> 00:33:10.710
Uh Tim, great having you on the show
00:33:10.720 --> 00:33:12.870
today. Thanks so much for coming in.
00:33:12.880 --> 00:33:14.070
>> Absolutely. Thanks for having me again,
00:33:14.080 --> 00:33:21.029
Paul.
00:33:21.039 --> 00:33:22.789
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