The Drop-In - EU Referendum Results Roundup. YES vs. NO.

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Hello and welcome to the drop-in.
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Uh here we have a special uh version of the drop-in where we're gonna round up the referendum that took place this weekend in Iceland on the uh question of whether or not we should restart negotiations with the EU.
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I'm Jon Tristis Erason.
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I'm Bark Every.
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And with us we have Elias Thorson, journalist.
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Hello.
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Uh welcome to the show.
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So this was uh this is finally over.
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Um the uh most exciting in in quotation marks uh election campaign that I remember.
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Being ironic.
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But okay, let's let's let's start at the beginning.
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So why why did we end up by having a referendum now on the 29th of August uh 2026, we should point out as opposed to 2027.
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So the the current ruling coalition of uh the Social Democrats, uh Vidrest, whatever we translate that to, um, and uh the People's Party, I guess it's reform?
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Restore?
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Restore?
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It's one of the two UK parties, actually.
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Yeah, it's restore or reform.
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Um they when they uh agreed on the coalition, they put in their agreement that they were gonna hold a referendum on whether or not to restart negotiations with the EU, something some a process.
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Iceland started uh in the big after the economic collapse of 2009 or 2008, depending on where you wanna start that.
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Well, I guess from here it's 2008.
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And uh that negotiation began in 2009 or ten and was then cancelled by the uh ruling coalition between the then Progressive Party and the Independence Party in 2013, if I'm not mistaken.
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Yeah, but should be noted that this referendum effectively is a campaign promise made by Seymund, the head of the Centre Party, and Biatne Ben, then leader of the Independence Party.
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In twenty thirteen when they formed that coalition.
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Yeah, being so when they were campaigning.
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So what Christian and Co.
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have done is they have fulfilled the campaign.
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Yeah, but uh to to sum this up, uh for reasons that weren't entirely clear, at least to me, they decided to move the date of the uh referendum forward.
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It was supposed to happen according to the coalition agreement in 2027, but then earlier this year the government decided to do it on the 29th of August this year, which was last Saturday.
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So uh and the foreign minister spoke about why they why they moved it up.
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Thorgather Cothrin said that it was clearly as a result of security.
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So it had to do with the international uh political situation, which was, if people remember, in January dominated by the President of the United States uh talking about uh taking over Greenland.
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Yeah, our closest neighbor.
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Misspeaking.
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Misspeaking four times.
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Four times.
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So I guess that's kind of how we got the referendum uh this time around.
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And we were s uh saying earlier that this was the fourth referendum Iceland has ever had.
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Yeah.
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And the third one this century.
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The first one was when we declared independence from Denmark in 1944.
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Um we'd enjoyed home rule from 1918 up until that point, and Denmark was at that point occupied.
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So that referendum happened in the uh context of global security issues.
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Um then we had a referendum um on ISAVE, which I don't want to go into the details of.
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No.
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And what was the ISAVE two.
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Oh, yeah, two ISEVESE.
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We had two ISAV referendums.
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Yeah.
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Equally fun, both of them.
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Yeah, they were also uh extraordinarily fun.
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Um unlike the ISAV referendums, the this kind of asked a very clear question, which was like, would you like uh Iceland to restart negotiations with the EU?
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Yes or no?
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Um the ISAVE referendum referendums comically had a very complex question that was about uh four lines long, it seemed.
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And about just a very complex issue.
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Yeah.
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What was the voter turnout for the ISAVE referendums compared to this one?
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Because this was very high voter.
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Not not according to the question.
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Not close.
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Not even close.
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We had about eighty percent uh uh turnout, which is the biggest turnout in an election since 2009.
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In Iceland since the post-crass post-crash uh election for parliament.
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So great, great victory for democracy.
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Yeah, so the Prime Minister stated.
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Yeah, I guess you could also call the post-uh economic collapse uh elections a great victory for democracy.
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Uh in if that's the the phrasing we're using.
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So uh where to begin, guys?
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This is what we're gonna be talking about.
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The the referendum ended with a no.
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Right.
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Do you guys remember the percentages?
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It was fifty point.
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52 point I want to say seven.
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No, and then forty seven, eight percent, forty or was it uh yeah, I was under fifty-three and around forty-eight or something.
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Close enough.
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Yeah.
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And uh polls uh from the the beginning of this year and throughout the summer had most of the time indicated that the turn that the uh result would be a very slim yes.
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Uh we talked about this on a podcast which you people can look up.
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I can't believe the polls had said yes.
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Well, they they had for the most of the most of the time until one was absolutely one poll in August was just basically 50-50 completely.
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But we did talk about this in a podcast in in May for subsequent to the feature you wrote for us.
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And we made predictions.
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We made predictions.
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You said slight yes.
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And I said slight no.
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Bart said overwhelming no.
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So so Bart wins.
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I felt like it was guaranteed.
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Bart did not win.
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I was wrong, because I thought it I thought it would be 60% no.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Uh what happened was what happened for the grapevines coverage of the EU referendum is Alias wrote on a as I just republished on the internet today.
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The internet sounds so futuristic.
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Uh on our website.
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On our website today, uh, you did uh our longest interview in the history of the magazine with Christian Frostdoter, uh interviewing the prime minister about uh what her objectives were, her views were.
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And about two-thirds of the way through the interview, you mentioned the EU.
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And to my alarm and dismay, she mentioned that's not a priority.
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And I knew at that point she was washing her hands of it.
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And I asked you to come in, and then I we started working on the EU piece at that point.
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But it seemed clear that this extremely popular Prime Minister was not going to give her popularity to the EU referendum.
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No, and I would say she did some town hall meetings uh you know in in August around the country, but uh she did an interview with uh famous foreign podcast uh Rest is politics.
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The rest is politics.
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And other than that, she more or less did not campaign um for the yes vote in this referendum, um, left that job almost exclusively to to uh Forky Katrin, the foreign minister, and um and whatever movements were were running the campaign that were somewhat but nobody knows associated with the political parties.
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This is something she worked out with her advisors and her party.
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The calculus must have been if I go full force into this, if I'm using my all of my political capital capital Continue.
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Okay.
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Uh if I'm using all of my political capital on this and it goes a no, uh I will be very damaged, my government will be damaged, right?
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But does it really matter?
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Like it went no.
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So your political damage.
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Your political capital is already damaged.
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And and and you can see immediately the opposition is pouncing on this, going, Well, you lost, uh which means the people don't support you, you know you you need to resign.
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Yeah.
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So what was the upside of this?
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Well, um I can't answer that because I don't get it.
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Um no, because I mean you didn't need to make to do this, right?
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Like this referendum is a is a decision.
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Yeah.
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It's a political decision made by the government.
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Shouldn't you stand by that decision wholeheartedly?
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Like if like let's remember, like, this is the second election we've had this year, which is unusual.
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We had uh municipal elections in in the spring.
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Thank you for bringing that up.
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And there Chris Tonforce Doctor was everywhere.
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Yeah, if you remember correctly.
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Which was to me at the time felt really strange.
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Yeah.
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Because I did not remember a sitting prime minister actively campaigning on the municipal level.
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Like I I don't I don't remember ever seeing that.
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I don't remember Byatni Ben ever doing that.
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I don't remember Kadany Yakov's Doctor doing that.
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So so why did she do that?
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Because she spent a lot of political capital.
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Yeah.
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Certain municipalities her party didn't even win.
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Like she handpicked the guy to run the Social Democrats in Reykjavik.
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You say guy.
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Interesting.
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What do you mean?
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I don't uh because I I believe He's a man.
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Yeah, I believe that was common for all of the Social Democrat uh leadership positions, first chairs.
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It was all men.
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Twelve of thirteen.
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Really?
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Okay.
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Okay.
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Which is which was I as I understand it, I g I don't want to speak out of school, but as I understand it, that was intentional.
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It could be.
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I don't I don't have no idea.
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But my my my point here is that she was willing to spend a lot of political capital on that, but didn't seem to want to go all in on this.
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No.
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And to me, that seems to be like the wrong prioritization.
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Because municipal elections, like people often vote for a party they would never vote for in government.
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No, uh what I what I what I would like to kind of things to cover here is like we can talk about how, as we are doing right now, how the campaign was conducted.
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Uh we should maybe talk about how um camping finances are a big black box uh for this.
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How how looking at the polls, we can see specifically how the campaigning, especially during the last few weeks, where a lot of money was spent, apparently, even though we'll never find out exactly how much, uh, how that was affecting different demographics differently.
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And and then we can kinda maybe come to a conclusion on on, you know, the the government obviously had a pr had a press conference yesterday in Harpa concert hall where they declared victory for democracy.
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Um Yeah, I keep on joking about it.
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Obviously, if you're on if you follow the the Reiki V Great button, you saw that I posted video from the press conference, uh uh which I endured for the hour that it lasted.
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Uh um yeah, it it did not, I don't think it I don't think it reflected well on the current government.
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Aaron Ross Powell No, that but that was their message that this was a victory for democracy because of the high turnout of 80% or so.
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And then we can maybe discuss uh because of sort of the nuances of of how this sort of how the debate went kind of national nationwide in in so the media and on social media during the past few uh weeks and months, because at the end of the day, because we don't have a draft agreement with the EU, that's the whole point, we didn't really have a strong foot to stand on in terms of debating what uh joining the EU or not would mean.
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So the discussions became therefore kind of strange, and actually you just you just allowed a lot left a lot of space there to like allow people basically to say whatever they wanted, which they did a lot of.
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It became an identity politics debate.
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We call it the comment section referendum.
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It became very sort of yeah, it wasn't very um nuanced.
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And some of the things that uh foreign reporters and and and foreign pundits um and this and the ruling coalition, especially the foreign minister and actually the prime minister have mentioned was that their the whole point about having this referendum now was because of the global political situation, which is uh an element of the of the discussion leading up to the referendum that didn't really make a lot of headway in the local discourse.
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No, it's it to me was very surprising.
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So Especially given that we were having military exercises on the island at the very same time the referendum took place.
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Yeah, so where should we where should we kinda start now?
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Every everything you said needs a little bit of footnotes, but yeah.
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I said I said quickly that we were we are we were currently having uh a NATO exercise with the United States uh military here at the time of the referendum.
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That that that should not be overlooked entirely, that there was a slight so show of strength at the exact time of this referendum theory about security.
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I can still point out that nobody noticed.
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But uh we were also talking about the same group of voters who also weren't really sentient of the uh seemingly of the global security aspect of the EU uh referendum.
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I I think I think we can use this as a segue into just the campaign in general.
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Yeah.
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Because as the summer went on, yeah, I feel like the debate that that was happening over this referendum changed drastically.
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100% changed.
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It went from talking about inflation, the Icelandic corona, these kind of things, these like old elements of the argument of why we should join the Uh into this heavy identity issues of like these what do you want to call them?
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Like these identity markers, sovereignty, independence, masculinity.
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And and and with that came a lot, like a term that I I want to coin here, which is Lopapesuclown.
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Wool sweater porn.
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Yeah, yeah.
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There's a lot of like like I watched this amazing AI video, beautiful, uh, that some guy from the Center Party made, where there's an old man speaking to his middle-aged son, and the middle-aged son is going, Well, you know, shouldn't we just say yes?
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Like what do we have to lose?
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And the old man uses an Icelandic phrase that goes something like, Well, you you you never know what you've lost until it's you know, you you you never know what you had.
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Yeah, until it's until it's gone.
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Right.
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Until it's gone, yeah.
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And then it's like uh flashback to like the glory days of the 1960s, Iceland.
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Like the and he's watching Iceland lose 14-2 to Denmark.
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Yeah.
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It's the Card Wars, uh, it's the volcanic eruption in in Westmaner.
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Yeah.
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And it's just like these things that tie into this kind of Icelandic exceptionalism myth.
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And and then I didn't really and then it was like V is Fimpo today getting elected president, which I found kind of confusing.
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It was like, what does this have to do with this anything?
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But but that's kind of my point.
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A lot of this didn't have anything to do with anything.
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No, it it's just you are Icelandic, you are special, don't let evil Europeans steal your identity.
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Yeah, it was very much like us.
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And and and and through that came this, in my view, very interesting, you know, coming from parties that have been in power here.
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Like the independence party's been in power, like I don't know, what's what have they they've been in?
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Like 75% of all governments that we've had or something?
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Yeah, they've been in power most of the time since 1944.
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Right.
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And then the line was this is addressing things like inflation in in that kind of way.
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We can do this ourselves.
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Yeah.
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And then you go, okay, okay, maybe then just do it.
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Yeah.
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Like what are we talking about here?
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Yeah, this is amazing.
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And and I'll say none of this has been covered by the foreign press.
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I mean, if if you're trying to follow this abroad, you have no idea what just happened.
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The only the the headlines all say that that fisheries were the key uh key aspect.
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And and while fisheries money probably went into the struggle, that was not the debating points.
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I guarantee you, I spent way too long too much of my time at these protest events to s and heard people talking, and fish didn't come up once.
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The thing is though, it it it comes up, it's just not in the way that it's being reported abroad.
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Yeah.
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Because fish and the fisheries industry and fishing in Iceland is not just it's not just about a resource.
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It's about a core part of Iceland's identity.
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Yeah.
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Is being a fisherman and we're a fishing nation.
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So in my view, it got brought up more in that sense.
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Like losing the fisheries is not just not about losing you know money, it's about losing who you are.
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Yeah, yeah.
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And and and in that way it got brought up a lot.
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You have the irony that Brim just had a massive loss of stock value today.
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Uh as you as has been all over the news.
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Because internationally people are stunned about what just happened.
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So if we think about like uh before it was announced that there would be a uh a referendum on the 29th, um we had had some polls where people were asked whether or not they were interested in in you know restarting the negotiations.
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There was a poll in December um 2025, and then there was a poll at some point in I think late January, early February 2026.
00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:41.440
And it was interesting, these were you know two different polling companies who did this, but it was like a 53 yes, 47 no kind of a thing.
00:19:41.680 --> 00:19:50.720
But in between those two polls, um the whole Greenland thing was playing out, and it didn't really affect the yes or no vote, which was interesting.
00:19:50.799 --> 00:19:59.279
But at the same time, the latter poll did ask people whether or not they were worried about the global situation, and 75 or 80% said yes.
00:19:59.440 --> 00:20:09.200
But this didn't affect those polling numbers, which I remember that surprised me very early on when this was coming up, that it didn't seem to uh like put a tent in in those numbers.
00:20:09.359 --> 00:20:16.480
And what had historically been affecting those numbers had been people discontented with the inflation and the housing market.
00:20:16.720 --> 00:20:23.039
So if the if inflation and and was what was high, uh support for the EU was high.
00:20:23.200 --> 00:20:32.319
And inflation had been high, and I think perhaps the bet of the government was that the the Greenland thing would actually make more people think about the EU.
00:20:32.799 --> 00:20:36.559
Uh but it doesn't seem to have actually had an effect very much.
00:20:36.640 --> 00:20:36.799
Trevor Burrus, Jr.
00:20:37.039 --> 00:20:47.359
But but this is you know, I was telling you earlier that I was talking to this Italian journalist who was interviewing me about this, and and she mentioned this, you know, how she was under depression.
00:20:47.440 --> 00:20:54.240
That reason why this was pushed up, the reason why we're having this referendum at this point in time was the global security situation.
00:20:54.880 --> 00:21:02.160
And then she said, but I've been looking into like the campaign over the summer, and it doesn't seem to have played a big role.
00:21:02.480 --> 00:21:04.240
And and I I would agree with that.
00:21:05.200 --> 00:21:09.839
Because and and and you're even like you're speaking about inflation, but this is very interesting.
00:21:10.000 --> 00:21:17.039
Like inflation is we we just the central bank just upped their the rate to eight percent to to combat high inflation.
00:21:17.200 --> 00:21:29.440
Yeah, like tomorrow we start the next amazingly fun debate about you know the situation in Iceland when the collective bargaining agreements will with the unions, yeah.
00:21:29.599 --> 00:21:30.880
Because they are technically broken.
00:21:31.359 --> 00:21:34.640
They're they're voids because inflation has been above five percent all year.
00:21:34.960 --> 00:21:37.920
Yeah, and that voids the the those previous contracts.
00:21:38.319 --> 00:21:44.559
So we have to go into another round of negotiating them, which you know that will bring inflation because wages have to go up.
00:21:44.880 --> 00:21:47.200
So somehow we're gonna have to balance that again.
00:21:47.440 --> 00:21:50.000
And the last time it took so long to get those through.
00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:50.640
Yep.
00:21:50.880 --> 00:21:52.480
Took months, months and months.
00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:52.880
Yeah.
00:21:53.119 --> 00:21:58.319
So that's gonna be a fun moment to but um my point is that inflation is high.
00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:25.920
But You know, if if we're thinking that was the I mean it has traditionally affected it and and uh what I think happened in the meantime during the summer was that uh whatever whoever was thinking about the inflation was uh you know those people probably still did, but uh the whole identity political aspect of the discourse kinda overwhelmed that.
00:22:26.160 --> 00:22:37.119
But the other thing I would like to point out is that we've had like, I don't know, eight, ten, fifteen polls in the past six, eight months about you know whether or not people support the EU or like rejoining the negotiation.
00:22:37.279 --> 00:22:38.640
Restarting the negotiation or not.
00:22:38.799 --> 00:22:52.880
And at no point point, to my knowledge, has any polling started asking any detailed questions about what aspects of you know this yes or no vote is important to the voters.
00:22:53.039 --> 00:23:01.200
Like is it the is the inflation, is it the currency, is it the fisheries, is it the agriculture, is it the security issue?
00:23:01.359 --> 00:23:03.599
It's never been though those questions were never asked.
00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:08.240
So we actually never knew uh what people actually cared about.
00:23:08.480 --> 00:23:21.599
Um which is also interesting because making the debate or the discourse over the summer even more so just an empty void of put whatever in there you like, we didn't know what the thoughts were thinking.
00:23:22.079 --> 00:23:23.039
No, we just broke it.
00:23:23.119 --> 00:23:34.160
But as you said, we would talk to people internationally and they would say, like, you know, so when you're doing your uh your kind of uh polls, uh you know what what aspects is going wrong, what aspects is going right?
00:23:34.640 --> 00:23:35.599
It's just yes or no.
00:23:35.680 --> 00:23:37.279
Sorry, the polls are just yes or no.
00:23:37.440 --> 00:23:58.720
Yeah, and and and I know you said before that previous referendums have been too long, but this was uh far too uh bizarre, a bizarre referendum, and that everybody, if you were walking around in Reykjavik, the little literal question that people would say, and even and kids like my son's age, 14, 15, would just say, Are you yes or no, without any indication.
00:23:58.799 --> 00:24:02.000
And oh yeah, that that was your entire identity.
00:24:02.559 --> 00:24:20.240
And uh the the the the train wagon I lost just earlier was the fact that because we don't have had the negotiation play out, we'd still we would we on top of that didn't know what it would be that we were debating with regards to joining in the EU.
00:24:20.319 --> 00:24:30.079
So it was like an empty, empty void, which goes back to something we said earlier, which was like what was the what was the reasoning for putting this vote up?
00:24:30.319 --> 00:24:30.640
Yeah.
00:24:30.880 --> 00:24:47.519
Because you would by default by doing it and doing no research on what people were thinking and actually having nothing to work with in terms of what an agreement would look like because there hadn't it hadn't played out, you're just creating a massive void of discourse.
00:24:47.920 --> 00:24:51.200
So and and then we can talk about what how that void was filled.
00:24:51.279 --> 00:25:02.319
I mean, if we start with the yes campaign, and again with uh the campaign laws on referendum in Iceland, we there is some group called Yes2C, I think.
00:25:02.480 --> 00:25:21.440
I don't know who's financing that, and then there was the All from Island or the No group, and I have no idea who financed that, and I have no idea how many much money was spent, but they kind of I think I felt like looking back on it, and I you can disagree with me obviously that the yes campaign kind of started off the discord the debate.
00:25:21.759 --> 00:25:33.440
They opened with uh, you know, kind of these corny slogans like, you know, Kikai pakan, look into the package, which you know, is is obviously what this vote was.
00:25:33.599 --> 00:25:37.359
It was a maybe like a maybe to check what would the result was be would be.
00:25:40.319 --> 00:26:10.559
And then, you know, some things that um yeah, then they were just saying things that sounded good, like, yeah, wouldn't you like to have lower uh interest rates and and a more stable currency and you know, a more stable economy, and all of these sorts of wish list make-believe things that um some people would like to happen, uh, but whether or not the you know joining the EU would actually fix those things is an entirely different thing.
00:26:10.720 --> 00:26:28.880
I mean, we've never had a year in the history of Iceland where we actually fulfilled the minimums of of actually uh taking up the euro uh economically, and uh and we also have an economy that is based on a few big sectors that all have built-in fluctuations.
00:26:28.960 --> 00:26:33.680
So like it would always be like we have these problems, they won't be solved by joining the EU.
00:26:34.000 --> 00:27:04.799
But anyway, that was kind of what they went with, and then I feel like by the beginning of July or late June, the no campaign really kicked in, and it was kind of amazingly well funded, it seemed, because uh they put up billports everywhere, and and social media was flooded with these videos which were all sorts of messaging for all sorts of different groups, kind of well thought out and well, admittedly full of AI um bullsweater, sloppy porn.
00:27:05.519 --> 00:27:12.799
Uh but you know they really went at it and they went full on identity and resentment and fear.
00:27:13.680 --> 00:27:22.319
And one of the most interesting aspects of this to me was this whole talk about like, yeah, you don't want your kid to join the European army, do you?
00:27:22.640 --> 00:27:33.359
And um, after the on the morning after the election, I talked to a friend who's a primary school teacher teaching like 15-year-olds, and he was like, Yeah, that's what they think.
00:27:33.599 --> 00:27:36.319
The 15-year-olds also like, yeah, you can't be saying yes to this.
00:27:36.400 --> 00:27:37.839
We don't want to go to join the army.
00:27:38.079 --> 00:27:40.400
There is no European army, it's a pile of shit.
00:27:40.559 --> 00:27:55.599
But uh what you then saw happen was that according to the polling data from the beginning of the summer, you know, 52 or 3% of young people, 18 to 29, were I think it was like 60 at the beginning of the summer.
00:27:55.920 --> 00:27:58.160
Yeah, it was like in June it was 53.
00:27:58.480 --> 00:28:01.359
But you know, if it was 60, I haven't looked it up.
00:28:01.680 --> 00:28:10.240
We're we're contemplating saying yes, which is you know, by the third week of June, the poll I looked at, that was just kind of the average.
00:28:10.720 --> 00:28:20.319
Uh and then a couple of days before the actual vote, there was another poll and there was sixty percent no in that in that uh age bracket.
00:28:20.880 --> 00:28:25.039
That is a tremendous shift in you know eight or ten weeks.
00:28:25.359 --> 00:28:38.880
Yeah, and and and I I can ass I would assume if you look at polling and what it said about gender difference in general, women were much more likely to say yes, men more much more likely to say no.
00:28:39.599 --> 00:28:47.119
I I would think that difference is probably more pronounced with the younger people for a variety of reasons.
00:28:47.279 --> 00:28:47.599
Yeah.
00:28:47.839 --> 00:28:53.440
Where they get their where you know there's a difference between how young people get their information from, who would they listen to.
00:28:53.839 --> 00:28:54.400
We know this.
00:28:54.480 --> 00:28:57.519
I mean, the great one did a great story about the Bro Sphere.
00:28:57.759 --> 00:28:59.279
The brosphere last year, for instance.
00:28:59.599 --> 00:29:05.200
Um where we we we looked at polling from uh the Meteor Commission, yeah.
00:29:05.359 --> 00:29:30.160
Um where it was looking at the views of you know young people based on on gender towards feminism, nationalism, all of these things, and it turns out that uh a lot of our young man folk seem to be getting their uh their inspiration for their views from from some social media platforms we have no control over.
00:29:31.359 --> 00:29:33.920
So you know it's like a part of an international trend.
00:29:34.400 --> 00:29:36.079
What do you mean by we have no control over?
00:29:36.559 --> 00:29:42.160
Uh like there don't it's it happens outside of Iceland's normal discourse on social media.
00:29:42.319 --> 00:29:44.480
It's just you know, they're alchemical algorithms.
00:29:45.279 --> 00:29:45.519
Right.
00:29:45.680 --> 00:29:50.240
So that's how the and that's what we're referring to as the the cover story, the bros are alt-right.
00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:50.799
Yeah.
00:29:51.039 --> 00:29:55.359
Uh in in which we noted the rise of Snorra Mausen.
00:29:55.680 --> 00:29:58.799
Snorri Mausen and and and a lot of those sort of uh right-wing podcast types.
00:30:00.319 --> 00:30:06.960
Frosty Lawson, um what's your aim piling guy, Thorin, uh, and all of these guys.
00:30:07.200 --> 00:30:11.440
And they they were very prominent recently in this discussion I noted I noted.
00:30:11.920 --> 00:30:12.240
Yeah.
00:30:12.319 --> 00:30:12.480
Yeah.
00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:16.960
Uh the anti-EU discussion, especially in the last two weeks.
00:30:17.119 --> 00:30:23.200
In fact, even on my social media, uh it it was right at the pr top of every search.
00:30:23.839 --> 00:30:42.319
So uh uh Yeah, what was strange then So yeah, again uh on these campaigns during the summer is that um you know the yes campaign kind of kept going, I guess, but kind of lost momentum as the summer progressed and the no campaign stepped in.
00:30:42.799 --> 00:30:56.240
And what was interesting about the no campaign in many ways, or those who were at least I'm not saying the campaign itself, nobody knows who really ran that campaign, thanks to the election loss we have.
00:30:56.480 --> 00:31:10.480
Um you would see the right wing parties who are in the opposition, the Independence Party and the uh the Centre Party, kinda you know, going for the no, currently.
00:31:11.359 --> 00:31:27.200
And then you would see league these these uh you know out of power former left wing politicians joining them and people who've kind of been sometimes on the fringe left uh would also sort of jump into this.
00:31:27.920 --> 00:31:28.319
Socialists.
00:31:28.640 --> 00:31:29.200
The socialists.
00:31:29.359 --> 00:31:36.240
So you would see somebody like Solve Anna, who's a who's a union leader, would be speaking fervently against the EU.
00:31:36.480 --> 00:31:49.599
And and uh when the no campaign held a rally here outside our of Parliament uh this past Thursday, the first person I saw was a guy called Albany Valde.
00:31:49.839 --> 00:31:51.759
Or Albania Valti.
00:31:52.319 --> 00:31:59.519
It was like an old old time um I don't know what this sect of of Marxism was, but you know, it's like one of those figures.
00:32:01.519 --> 00:32:02.720
Yeah, something like that, you know.
00:32:02.880 --> 00:32:08.079
Uh maybe I guess he was talking I guess it was what what was the name of the dictator of Albania again?
00:32:08.559 --> 00:32:10.480
No, that's Romania.
00:32:10.799 --> 00:32:12.880
Yeah, Albania was No, no, who was the name?
00:32:12.960 --> 00:32:13.680
What was the name again?
00:32:13.920 --> 00:32:15.200
Uh it escapes me right now.
00:32:15.359 --> 00:32:15.680
I don't know.
00:32:16.240 --> 00:32:30.160
Uh along with like elements of the um other sort of groups in Iceland that um are usually not associated with the French right, or often not even the French left.
00:32:30.480 --> 00:32:34.240
Yeah, I mean and I mean most prominently there would be our former president.
00:32:34.720 --> 00:32:39.519
Former President Olo Ragnar Grimson and former Prime Minister Katerina Gostoter.
00:32:40.480 --> 00:32:45.519
Who hilariously was in the government first time around when we actually applied.
00:32:45.920 --> 00:32:52.319
Yeah, she voted for uh starting the ascension discussions or whatever you call them negotiation.
00:32:52.880 --> 00:33:17.119
She spoke on Thursday and was talking about that she didn't want Iceland to join the EU because it was controlled by by uh the money interests, which was ironic and hilarious because that whole rally was paid for by the Icelandic money interests and was chaired by Halter Benjamin, the former chairman of the what is it called Employers Union or whatever you call it.
00:33:17.279 --> 00:33:17.920
Yeah, something to call it.
00:33:18.079 --> 00:33:21.759
Yeah, but his current his current job is Yeah, he's in the he's in real estate, yeah.
00:33:22.079 --> 00:33:29.519
He's in real estate, and we should point out that Catherine they didn't recuse themselves, strangely, but they're both major real estate moguls now because Catrin is the right thing.
00:33:29.839 --> 00:33:32.720
I don't know if she's a you could call her a mogul, but he's on the board of one of the biggest.
00:33:36.480 --> 00:33:39.359
So, you know, it was yeah.
00:33:39.599 --> 00:33:46.400
So that kind of took place, and then I I don't know, like where do we where where do we even take this from here?
00:33:46.559 --> 00:34:05.359
Like why why at any any point did the um the security uh aspect of this referendum never really come into play in the discourse here because that's that was the rationale for you know putting this on the on the For rushing it?
00:34:06.720 --> 00:34:10.800
And that was still the rationale when they were speaking yesterday on in the press conference with the government.
00:34:11.199 --> 00:34:12.239
That's a very important point.
00:34:12.400 --> 00:34:18.000
However, can we finish this because I think there's an important element to be mentioned here about Alfram Island.
00:34:18.320 --> 00:34:23.280
Oh, the the pro anti campaign that held that rally that you were referring to.
00:34:23.599 --> 00:34:24.000
Yes.
00:34:24.320 --> 00:34:30.400
Now, because if you remember correctly, this group was founded in the summer.
00:34:31.440 --> 00:34:35.679
Now, what is interesting about that when I did my EU piece in spring, they didn't exist.
00:34:36.000 --> 00:34:36.880
They didn't exist.
00:34:37.599 --> 00:34:44.400
So at the time I interviewed Harald Rolarson, who's the head of Heimsine, which is the OG anti-EU group, right?
00:34:44.559 --> 00:34:44.880
Yeah.
00:34:45.119 --> 00:34:46.880
He has been very absent, I feel.
00:34:47.280 --> 00:34:51.280
We well, I went and tried to speak with him at this reality who was on the outside looking in.
00:34:51.920 --> 00:34:58.239
So so we have to I think there's an important element here as a story that I don't I don't think anyone has really delved into.
00:34:59.119 --> 00:34:59.760
Why?
00:35:00.559 --> 00:35:04.960
Why was there a new group founded when there was already a very established one?
00:35:06.239 --> 00:35:15.840
And I think somebody smart figured they're not very sexy, they're not very sellable.
00:35:16.159 --> 00:35:22.079
We need a new group uh that speaks to a different group of people.
00:35:22.239 --> 00:35:34.239
Yeah, because I think Heimseen was like older guys, you know, meeting over coffee and cake, talking about you know how much they didn't like the Prussians.
00:35:34.719 --> 00:35:35.440
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:35:35.519 --> 00:35:39.840
And like that's not a joke, but that's an excellent quote.
00:35:39.920 --> 00:35:41.760
The Franco-Prussian military alliance.
00:35:42.400 --> 00:35:42.559
Yeah.
00:35:42.880 --> 00:35:54.480
But and and also I think those that group is more associated with things like being the anti-EEA, being anti-Schengen, being anti-all these things.
00:35:54.639 --> 00:35:54.960
Yeah.
00:35:55.119 --> 00:36:03.840
Well, the Alfred-Islam people, if you listen to them, they're they they're very open about being pro- the EEA.
00:36:04.320 --> 00:36:05.519
They're pro-EAs.
00:36:06.159 --> 00:36:06.719
Right now they are.
00:36:06.880 --> 00:36:07.039
Yeah.
00:36:07.280 --> 00:36:08.559
No, and I think they are.
00:36:08.880 --> 00:36:10.079
And I think they always will be.
00:36:10.400 --> 00:36:11.760
Yeah, so um.
00:36:13.199 --> 00:36:28.000
I guess if you look at why the sort of money interests in Iceland would have been supporting uh the no vote, it's basically obvious they're in an enclosed economy with a high inflation rate and they own a lot of money, so they're making a lot of money on the back of that.
00:36:28.320 --> 00:36:29.920
So that's good for them.
00:36:30.320 --> 00:36:33.280
I think the rise of Avramison is a is a great point, Ellis.
00:36:33.760 --> 00:36:48.800
And I and I and what confounds me, and I've been kind of uh holding my tongue on this a little bit, but uh the degree to which this is Christian's folly is not being stated in the media, and I find it you mean the f the the international media.
00:36:49.360 --> 00:36:51.440
Even the local media is not really speaking of it.
00:36:51.599 --> 00:37:10.320
The only person uh obviously I was at the protests, the gatherings, sorry, and I was at the press conference, and the only person who seemed to understand what had just happened was a young man from Denmark who sat beside me, or behind me, just uh acting like somebody had just vomited all over the floor at a party.
00:37:10.400 --> 00:37:18.159
Like he was just like so disgusted, and he couldn't he didn't ask a question at the thing, he was basically like these people are done to dead to me.
00:37:18.239 --> 00:37:19.920
He could not believe what he was hearing.
00:37:20.079 --> 00:37:24.880
Um, because if you watch closely, you watched the rise of the right.
00:37:25.039 --> 00:37:40.480
We had talked about like that the bro culture was coming, and then we saw the municipal elections, and while Christian got involved there and seems to have pushed for the for a more appealing candidate to men um and failed in that regard.
00:37:41.199 --> 00:38:02.320
Um as it happened, the the far right Midflokren Party seemed to have failed, and they seemed to have no win in their sales, and we were waiting for a response from the young Midflokren Party on what their platform was, and nothing came for three weeks until Anton Svade came out and said, We've decided what our platform is.
00:38:02.480 --> 00:38:03.519
And you know what it was?
00:38:03.760 --> 00:38:05.119
That we are anti-EU.
00:38:05.679 --> 00:38:08.079
We've decided that is our unifying factor.
00:38:08.239 --> 00:38:21.679
And the next thing you know, every major figure who had just taken a loss in the city politics is in the national spotlight for defeating Christian, and they've got a huge amount of money that we don't know where it's coming from, and they've got Alvram Island as their slogan.
00:38:21.920 --> 00:38:25.920
I think we just gave rise to what's going to become the next two years.
00:38:27.440 --> 00:38:29.599
That's that's my frustration.
00:38:29.840 --> 00:38:30.159
Yeah.
00:38:30.320 --> 00:38:38.320
Um and it was because there was no clear language, no clear strategy on this referendum, and all it was was are you this or this?
00:38:38.480 --> 00:38:47.760
And if you're going for identity and you want to say I'm a masculine Icelander, and that's my identity, and if you're not me, you're the you're you're you're weak.
00:38:48.320 --> 00:38:59.760
Um Yeah, I a very uh a man smarter than myself said about this referendum that he felt the government was extremely naive.
00:39:00.480 --> 00:39:07.519
They thought this is such an obvious thing because we're not voting on joining.
00:39:07.760 --> 00:39:08.239
Yeah.
00:39:08.880 --> 00:39:10.880
That people are just gonna say yes.
00:39:11.119 --> 00:39:12.960
You know, because it's a it's a low stakes.
00:39:13.440 --> 00:39:14.079
The government thought that.
00:39:14.239 --> 00:39:15.039
Yeah, the government thought that.
00:39:15.280 --> 00:39:20.880
And the the parallel I make to people is the David Cameron moment and with Brexit.
00:39:21.039 --> 00:39:23.119
It was so obvious that you wouldn't do Brexit.
00:39:23.280 --> 00:39:24.800
So he just tossed it out there.
00:39:25.199 --> 00:39:27.679
I think I think that's a apt comparison, yeah.
00:39:28.079 --> 00:39:31.679
And I don't know why we haven't seen it, but it looks to me like we have a David Cameron situation.
00:39:32.000 --> 00:39:39.519
Well, I mean, I think the difference here is you have to remember, like, I was at this I was on this podcast the other day and they were asking me about the comparison here between Brexit.
00:39:39.679 --> 00:39:43.519
And I was saying, like, well, rhetorically, I I can definitely see parallels.
00:39:43.760 --> 00:39:46.320
It's a lot to do with sovereignty and independence and whatnot.
00:39:46.559 --> 00:39:53.760
But we were voting on do we maintain the status quo or see if there's a possibility of a different one.
00:39:54.000 --> 00:39:54.159
Okay.
00:39:54.320 --> 00:39:57.360
Well in Brexit, they they were voting to completely up and the status quo.
00:39:57.519 --> 00:39:57.760
Good point.
00:39:58.000 --> 00:40:01.360
And that's a that that is a fundamental difference between what just happened.
00:40:01.599 --> 00:40:01.920
You're right.
00:40:02.079 --> 00:40:10.320
And and and this is a thing I want to touch on, which is because you know, obviously you've been looking around like what people are saying.
00:40:10.480 --> 00:40:23.679
And so obviously, Nigel Farage, because we're talking about the UK, yeah, and Marine Le Pen, and then this dude who whose name escapes me, but he leads like the far, far, far right party in Denmark.
00:40:24.000 --> 00:40:25.679
Okay, so we've got UK, France, and Denmark.
00:40:25.920 --> 00:40:34.079
Yeah, are all saying like good job, Iceland, brilliant, like you know, F the the F Europe and European collaborations, blah blah blah.
00:40:34.400 --> 00:40:46.320
But every single person, like the a big part of the no campaign was we don't need to join the EU because we're already a part of the inner market.
00:40:46.639 --> 00:40:59.599
So there's no benefit because we enjoy all the benefits of that, which means that they are conceding that there are actual benefits to EU membership, just that we don't need it because we already enjoy all the benefits without all the downsides.
00:41:02.239 --> 00:41:13.920
So it it's not like this was a rejection of shared economies, you know, inner markets, right, all these things.
00:41:14.239 --> 00:41:17.360
It it was not a vote for isolationism.
00:41:17.760 --> 00:41:26.719
No It was a vote on what form does our sit or our position within Europe take.
00:41:27.360 --> 00:41:35.039
I think if if somebody were to ask, like, you know, what does this referendum then the conclusion of it, how does it affect Iceland's relationship with the EU?
00:41:35.280 --> 00:41:37.760
It doesn't change anything, I would say.
00:41:38.159 --> 00:41:39.920
At this point, it changes nothing.
00:41:40.159 --> 00:41:49.840
We are uh what has kind of been clear in w if anything in the campaign is that everybody likes the EEA and nobody's leaving the EEA.
00:41:51.039 --> 00:41:57.039
And we therefore have a great relationship with Europe, but for the time being we're just not applying for membership.
00:41:57.280 --> 00:42:00.480
Or sorry, we're not restarting the negotiations, Jesus Christ.
00:42:00.639 --> 00:42:00.719
Yeah.
00:42:00.960 --> 00:42:01.519
On the membership.
00:42:01.679 --> 00:42:02.000
That's it.
00:42:02.079 --> 00:42:06.559
There's no other immediate connotations I can think of that this affects.
00:42:06.960 --> 00:42:10.239
I mean not like it looks weird, of course.
00:42:10.480 --> 00:42:17.360
I think it makes the uh our current government look really odd, uh seen from Europe.
00:42:18.000 --> 00:42:18.559
Yes.
00:42:19.039 --> 00:42:31.039
Uh and as Denmark's radio, whose correspondent you were probably sitting next to pointed out, it's a massive loss of prestige, or however we phrased it in in on Denmark Radio yesterday.
00:42:31.599 --> 00:42:32.800
Prestige for the EU.
00:42:33.199 --> 00:42:33.280
No.
00:42:34.639 --> 00:42:35.599
For the Icelandic government.
00:42:36.000 --> 00:42:36.639
Okay, yeah.
00:42:37.199 --> 00:42:48.559
Um and uh you know the the press in Norway has been, you know, pondering what this means and obviously worrying about the future of the EA, but not seeing very little to worry about, I guess.
00:42:48.960 --> 00:42:58.239
Yeah, I saw I saw an interview with uh I was reading the Norwegian press, and there was a Norwegian professor who who was who said the the moneyed interest of Iceland won.
00:42:58.559 --> 00:42:59.039
Yeah, they did.
00:43:00.079 --> 00:43:00.960
And the government lost.
00:43:02.159 --> 00:43:18.639
And uh it's uh and as we have talked about before, I think a large part of why the government lost was uh because its prime minister decided to wash her hands of this and decided to do so early and never did any campaigning to any meaningful extent.
00:43:18.960 --> 00:43:23.760
No, it was weird, like it was just like a last-minute kind of you know, August town halls.
00:43:24.159 --> 00:43:25.119
Yeah, too late.
00:43:25.440 --> 00:43:26.559
Yeah, it kind of was.
00:43:26.719 --> 00:43:28.639
Like the momentum had kind of started to shift.
00:43:28.880 --> 00:43:29.519
Yeah.
00:43:30.320 --> 00:43:30.639
So yes.
00:43:31.039 --> 00:43:37.119
And and I mean, and very little sort of press visibility aside from that.
00:43:37.519 --> 00:43:39.440
It was a very quiet engagement.
00:43:39.840 --> 00:43:40.079
Yeah.
00:43:40.400 --> 00:43:45.280
And and and I also like I want to point out because we've mentioned this, the Yao Tele Xiao thing.
00:43:46.239 --> 00:43:48.159
Kik take a look, whatever.
00:43:48.480 --> 00:43:49.679
It's also to take a look.
00:43:50.000 --> 00:43:58.719
It's like it's it's it's nice because like from like this kind of game theory idea, like obviously that it should always be a yes because it basically costs you nothing.
00:43:58.960 --> 00:44:00.800
Yeah, and you and you might Get something, right?
00:44:01.760 --> 00:44:07.599
But but in the sense of values, in sense of a selling point, it is very weak.
00:44:08.159 --> 00:44:10.639
Because you're you're not talking up the EU.
00:44:11.280 --> 00:44:16.480
You are saying maybe they have something, but I'm actually not sure they do.
00:44:16.719 --> 00:44:17.119
Yeah, yeah.
00:44:17.360 --> 00:44:20.159
You know, so so it's like where is the conviction?
00:44:20.239 --> 00:44:20.719
Yeah, right?
00:44:21.119 --> 00:44:26.159
No, I mean it's very that we talked about this uh in in in May when we last had the podcast about this.
00:44:26.239 --> 00:44:38.480
We were talking about like people who fervently believe, and that's one of the genius of the no campaign was to like make a portion of the population who were wanted to vote no, make them believe there was like an existential issue.
00:44:38.559 --> 00:44:43.519
If you don't say no now, you lose everything, you lose your sovereignty, you lose your identity and everything.
00:44:43.760 --> 00:44:46.719
So those people are gonna show up for votes, right?
00:44:46.800 --> 00:44:50.559
They but the yes campaign, on the other hand, as we pointed out, it's a maybe.
00:44:50.880 --> 00:44:52.719
It's very hard to get behind a maybe.
00:44:52.880 --> 00:44:54.880
Are you gonna show up to vote for a maybe?
00:44:55.039 --> 00:44:57.039
I mean it's that was part of the dynamic.
00:44:57.119 --> 00:44:58.000
It's a very hard sell.
00:44:58.559 --> 00:45:00.239
Yeah, and it just didn't seem to me to be.
00:45:00.559 --> 00:45:02.000
Because there's there's there are no stakes.
00:45:02.239 --> 00:45:14.000
It just seems it it feels you know, I I've been never a fan of these it feels marketing, you know, it feels like an ad agency thing.
00:45:14.320 --> 00:45:15.119
Yes, teleshow.
00:45:15.280 --> 00:45:18.400
Yao Tilus Chao, it's yeah, it's nice grimes, it's kinda nice.
00:45:18.639 --> 00:45:19.440
It's corny.
00:45:19.599 --> 00:45:23.840
It's corny, but it it it doesn't really it doesn't move you.
00:45:24.079 --> 00:45:24.239
No.
00:45:24.800 --> 00:45:28.079
Um it's just kinda yeah, you know.
00:45:28.320 --> 00:45:31.360
It it's it's just like a eh, sure.
00:45:32.000 --> 00:45:44.960
So one of one of the things because I I wrote about how it I I was trying to wrap my hat around why the foreign security international security aspect never made it into the discourse here.
00:45:46.159 --> 00:45:50.320
And I came up with the theory that's that I don't know if it's true or not.
00:45:50.480 --> 00:46:02.239
Well, it was because we haven't really had anybody in the press in Iceland covering foreign events or foreign news for almost 20 years to a meaningful extent.
00:46:02.559 --> 00:46:13.199
So it kind of means that this whole aspect, what it like what does this thing that happened abroad mean for us here, isn't really covered in the press very much.
00:46:13.679 --> 00:46:19.360
So we collectively as a population aren't really honed into that idea.
00:46:19.760 --> 00:46:30.880
And I was asking off the record somebody who's in or has been in politics about whether or not he thought it was or she, whatever it was, uh strange that this was not part of discourse.
00:46:31.199 --> 00:46:38.960
And the answer was yes, but I don't think it would necessarily work because I don't think people really are kind of trained into thinking that way.
00:46:39.679 --> 00:46:39.920
Yeah.
00:46:40.239 --> 00:46:49.679
I don't know if that's true or not, but it was just because you know it's it's trying to kind of address the question that a lot of foreign press has had is like, why aren't you talking about the security issue?
00:46:49.920 --> 00:46:52.719
So so so I I think there's definitely a point there.
00:46:52.960 --> 00:46:55.920
However, I would read this a bit differently.
00:46:56.239 --> 00:47:02.480
First of all, if you look back at the press conference, I watched that live when they announced that we're gonna have this referendum.
00:47:02.639 --> 00:47:07.440
And yes, they they they it's it's very kind of euphemistic.
00:47:07.679 --> 00:47:15.119
They say things like, well, yes, there's a we have an uncertain global security situation.
00:47:15.360 --> 00:47:20.000
Yeah, they never mention why or who or anything.
00:47:20.239 --> 00:47:22.320
There are no actors, there are no stakes, right?
00:47:22.480 --> 00:47:26.000
It's it's kind of ambiguous what is happening.
00:47:26.639 --> 00:47:32.079
Uh and and and then it seems to me this is uh kind of a some kind of a focus group thing.
00:47:32.400 --> 00:47:32.639
Yeah.
00:47:32.880 --> 00:47:35.920
You ask people, so what are you worried about?
00:47:36.159 --> 00:47:37.599
And they go, well, inflation.
00:47:37.840 --> 00:47:40.079
Alright, okay, we're gonna talk up that, right?
00:47:40.880 --> 00:47:49.599
And and because they're not not enough people, you don't you don't un you don't analyze it as not enough people are worried about this, and then you just decide to ignore it.
00:47:50.639 --> 00:47:58.800
But the point is that actually gives people an existential you know way of framing this.
00:47:59.360 --> 00:48:03.679
So you ignored the thing that might have told a story, is my point.
00:48:04.719 --> 00:48:09.920
For niceties about something that we don't really know.
00:48:10.320 --> 00:48:21.760
And I mean as you point out, like even if we would join the European Union, when conceivably could we even adapt the Euro?
00:48:22.400 --> 00:48:23.199
What are we talking about?
00:48:23.360 --> 00:48:25.199
1940 2040, maybe?
00:48:25.360 --> 00:48:25.920
I don't know.
00:48:26.320 --> 00:48:28.159
Uh it's like gonna take so long.
00:48:28.400 --> 00:48:30.639
We would have to cook the books to to make that work out.
00:48:30.719 --> 00:48:36.880
I think I think we wouldn't be the first people to do that, but it would be very hard for us because we've never actually achieved that in a yeah.
00:48:37.519 --> 00:48:41.599
But I'm saying is that so you have something you're saying is an immediate threat.
00:48:42.559 --> 00:48:45.360
Um, but you don't disclose what that is.
00:48:45.679 --> 00:48:46.000
No.
00:48:46.880 --> 00:48:54.960
And and then you're offering a solution to problems that are not gonna get fixed upon joining the European Union.
00:48:55.440 --> 00:48:56.800
It I mean it's very clear.
00:48:57.039 --> 00:49:02.719
You're not just gonna join and well, inflation is down, the housing market is fixed, whatever.
00:49:03.119 --> 00:49:06.800
It's is and that's why it becomes this kind of meandering.
00:49:06.960 --> 00:49:08.880
Well, you know, we should take a look.
00:49:09.039 --> 00:49:14.239
But it's like, okay, yeah, that's great, but you're not speaking to me.
00:49:14.480 --> 00:49:14.880
Right.
00:49:15.119 --> 00:49:19.119
Well, the no campaign was emotional.
00:49:19.920 --> 00:49:23.840
It was playing up identity, it was like Lopez-Clown constantly.
00:49:24.159 --> 00:49:25.440
It managed to make it immediate.
00:49:25.679 --> 00:49:26.480
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:49:26.880 --> 00:49:29.760
Like the the evil Europeans want to take your resources.
00:49:30.000 --> 00:49:30.400
Yep.
00:49:30.639 --> 00:49:40.559
Which is like they wanna steal your your fish and your electricity and your Yeah, like like like like like those like those billboards on the Just drop that in like yeah, yeah.
00:49:40.639 --> 00:49:44.239
But the the billboards and the ads you saw on like bus stops everywhere.
00:49:44.400 --> 00:49:44.800
Yeah.
00:49:45.519 --> 00:49:51.360
Amazing to me, which was uh selling off the natural resources?
00:49:51.599 --> 00:49:52.559
Question mark.
00:49:53.360 --> 00:49:54.239
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:49:54.320 --> 00:49:58.000
Uh absolute bullshit spin, but phrased as a question.
00:49:58.320 --> 00:49:58.480
Yeah.
00:49:58.719 --> 00:49:59.199
Ah, great.
00:49:59.760 --> 00:50:02.719
And and and and the thing is, and you have to go, okay.
00:50:06.880 --> 00:50:10.880
Because he was asking, has there been a lot of misinformation uh in this campaign?
00:50:10.960 --> 00:50:25.360
And you go well the thing is it's hard to say because we are voting on something completely hypothetical, which means you can kind of just insert whatever you want into the space.
00:50:26.000 --> 00:50:33.840
So you raise the question selling of the natural resources and you go, is that misinformation?
00:50:34.159 --> 00:50:41.679
Well, you can point out has any EU country lost control over their natural resources upon joining the EU?
00:50:42.400 --> 00:50:43.519
Not that I'm aware of.
00:50:43.920 --> 00:50:46.480
Well, Denmark, but they never had any to begin with.
00:50:48.000 --> 00:50:51.280
I mean, but the the but they actually kept in laws that made so easy.
00:50:51.760 --> 00:50:54.000
I'm just kidding, because they don't really have a lot of natural resources.
00:50:54.320 --> 00:50:54.960
That's the whole joke.
00:50:55.199 --> 00:51:06.880
But like, I mean, obviously, Ireland is the great is the perfect uh kind of parallel for Iceland in their EU membership, and that wasn't discussed in the slightest throughout this entire campaign, which I find.
00:51:07.440 --> 00:51:08.400
No, no, no, no.
00:51:08.480 --> 00:51:25.119
And and then they managed to like this my point is also like because you're not selling the EU as a positive, you're selling it as a you know, it might make things it's like you're not you're not selling it as a thing you believe in.
00:51:25.360 --> 00:51:25.519
No.
00:51:25.840 --> 00:51:30.639
So so you're not going like, well, what about the economies of the Baltics or Poland and how you know they have improved?
00:51:31.119 --> 00:51:32.559
No, no, we never even got there.
00:51:32.800 --> 00:51:37.199
No, we never We never got anywhere in sort of details and depth or anything.
00:51:37.360 --> 00:51:56.400
But I mean, to so if we were to sum this up, could we say that the government in doing this because of what the question they were gonna pose is and how vague that is, they just created this gigantic space for you to maneuver in.
00:51:57.199 --> 00:52:10.960
They took no advantage of that space themselves, and perhaps it was harder for them on the S, but they could have done it, but they didn't like the at least the Prime Minister didn't really put any muscle into it, even though she campaigned during the municipality elections.
00:52:11.039 --> 00:52:12.960
He just completely left this alone.
00:52:13.280 --> 00:52:18.960
I mean, you can argue that she did something, but we talked about what that was, and it was not very impactful or visible.
00:52:19.199 --> 00:52:38.880
And at the same time, you could say that whoever or whatever money was running the no campaign exploited that space um masterfully, I would say in even though it's you know perfectly in a perfectly cynical way.
00:52:39.440 --> 00:52:40.559
And they won.
00:52:40.639 --> 00:52:44.480
And the government basically set themselves up for self-own.
00:52:45.679 --> 00:52:55.119
Uh first by having a referendum on an issue that's vague, and then second by not pulling together to actually campaign for it.
00:52:56.159 --> 00:52:58.159
Maybe because they thought it was a given.
00:52:58.400 --> 00:53:00.000
I I when they put it on.
00:53:00.320 --> 00:53:00.960
I think so.
00:53:01.119 --> 00:53:09.760
I think it they thought it was a given, which is like referencing back to um this person that was telling me that they felt the government was naive.
00:53:10.480 --> 00:53:26.880
I think it was also, as we mentioned at the beginning, it was a political calculus um that I think was wrong, but something they they thought that if we go too hard into this and and lose, um that's gonna be very embarrassing for us, but this is already embarrassing for them.
00:53:27.280 --> 00:53:31.199
Yeah, I think that's the the I think that we could file that under Christian's calculus.
00:53:31.280 --> 00:53:31.440
Yeah.
00:53:31.599 --> 00:53:44.079
And her, like that, you know, if you if you disassociate yourself from having this referendum, you've agreed to in the coalition agreement of the new government, you will not be tarnished by it, tarnished by it.
00:53:44.320 --> 00:53:45.199
I I agree with you.
00:53:45.280 --> 00:53:47.440
I think that may have been a miscalculation.
00:53:47.519 --> 00:54:13.760
I think uh however uh gittily they tried to play up this as a victory for democracy and not a massive loss for them uh at the press conference yesterday, it is still as the Danes have well, the people who came up with the story of Emperor with No Claws have pointed out uh that it is uh it is a humiliation for the current coalition and a bit of a self-defeat.
00:54:14.320 --> 00:54:33.119
But it's also if you look at the kind of cynical political calculus for the opposition here, we know for a fact, and this has been talked about by some, you know, there are still some pro-EU members of the Independent Party who have been quite upset about this.
00:54:34.239 --> 00:54:50.719
Is that there doesn't seem to have been any sort of discussion about it within the party beforehand, but their massively successful and well-organized election machine went on to full steam on this.
00:54:51.039 --> 00:54:52.079
We're talking about the independence party.
00:54:52.239 --> 00:54:52.880
Yeah, the independence party.
00:54:53.119 --> 00:55:01.440
And that wasn't really part of the international news or even the local news, but uh you and I are well aware because uh I have friends who are in the independence party and you saw the text messages they received.
00:55:01.679 --> 00:55:03.119
Yeah, time to get to the polling station.
00:55:03.679 --> 00:55:06.000
I mean, they they had a grassroots organization.
00:55:06.719 --> 00:55:07.280
Not a grassroots.
00:55:07.679 --> 00:55:09.039
Yeah, they have their machine.
00:55:09.119 --> 00:55:13.760
Uh I mean uh when they when they push the button, it's their members follow.
00:55:13.920 --> 00:55:21.360
And like you said, that shouldn't have even been a you wouldn't think that would be a party issue because No, and and and and this is the uh the interesting thing about that.
00:55:21.519 --> 00:55:34.480
So I think, I mean, clearly to me, the way the Center Party, the Independence Party, and the Progressive Party, From Skol Vokerin, saw this, if it becomes a no, it's an embarrassment for the government.
00:55:34.960 --> 00:55:36.079
And that's what we want.
00:55:36.320 --> 00:55:36.639
Right.
00:55:37.039 --> 00:55:43.679
Um because I mean if you look at and this is kind of this is also how this played out.
00:55:43.840 --> 00:55:52.639
It became this I mean, put aside the socialist party, which is like a minor party in Iceland, not even in parliament.
00:55:53.119 --> 00:56:02.480
This became like a left-right debate, which to me, having you know, I lived in the EU for close to a decade, mostly in Denmark.
00:56:04.000 --> 00:56:19.599
And the the the parties in the Danish parliament that you would kinda say are the parties that are like the Independence Party, to be Venstra and uh the Conservatives, very pro-EU parties, right?
00:56:20.960 --> 00:56:36.800
So on the mainland, if you are the center-right mainstream right-wing party, whether that be, you know, the the the the Christian Democrats in Germany or whatever, you tend to be pro-EU.
00:56:37.760 --> 00:56:40.400
Here it became very left versus right.
00:56:41.840 --> 00:56:48.480
Which is, I think, is something that maybe, you know, if you're the foreign press, you don't quite understand.
00:56:48.880 --> 00:57:00.079
Because you need to be kind of inside the both the the how this is just cynical party politics as normal, uh, rather than strictly ideological.
00:57:00.719 --> 00:57:07.760
And and then you need to understand, you know, the ties that political parties have to different aspects of the business community.
00:57:08.079 --> 00:57:08.239
Yeah.
00:57:08.480 --> 00:57:11.280
And that's maybe something you're not aware of, right?
00:57:11.679 --> 00:57:12.000
No.
00:57:12.639 --> 00:57:25.199
Yeah, I I think the ties between the Independence Party particularly and the business community is obviously strong, or uh the former chairman of the Independence Party is the chairman of the business lobby, no?
00:57:26.079 --> 00:57:28.000
But yeah, uh that's uh that's a part of it.
00:57:28.079 --> 00:57:41.840
It was kind of like uh you know uh an o an opportunity to to uh give the current government a punch on the nose, and it were and worked out in that sense.
00:57:42.239 --> 00:57:45.760
We should we should wrap it up, but we should uh wage the small caveat.
00:57:46.480 --> 00:57:48.320
Uh Christian's still popular.
00:57:48.639 --> 00:57:53.760
And is more popular than you would expect for a sitting uh government, right?
00:57:53.920 --> 00:57:58.559
I mean as as of like last week, she was at twenty-six percent.
00:57:58.639 --> 00:57:59.199
Am I wrong?
00:57:59.280 --> 00:58:00.880
Uh she's still popular.
00:58:01.920 --> 00:58:06.800
Well, so maybe maybe her calculus, maybe she's looking at it uh maybe she's right.
00:58:06.960 --> 00:58:16.320
I mean, maybe she just knew the EU was a failure, put a little bit of a enough of an effort in to get a gentleman's C on this with the European Union people.
00:58:16.480 --> 00:58:16.639
Yeah.
00:58:16.800 --> 00:58:25.039
And did the handshake to Trump to remind them that, you know, we we're on both sides, we're gonna play both sides, and is gonna move on with nothing but domestic policies.
00:58:25.199 --> 00:58:27.599
I could we could be I could be wrong.
00:58:28.000 --> 00:58:30.639
This could be could be a steam vent for the right wing.
00:58:30.719 --> 00:58:41.039
They could just celebrate this and dance about dance dance, you know, about victory and then be slammed in in the next parliament, which starts in in a week, right?
00:58:41.280 --> 00:58:41.679
No, no.
00:58:42.639 --> 00:58:43.360
I think it's now, isn't it?
00:58:43.519 --> 00:58:44.159
Yeah, it starts today.
00:58:45.199 --> 00:58:45.679
Of course, sorry.
00:58:45.920 --> 00:58:48.239
So uh that could that could also be the case.
00:58:48.320 --> 00:58:50.000
We like time will tell, actually.
00:58:50.239 --> 00:58:57.920
Um and you know, maybe it's actually maybe her her advisors and herself are are correct.
00:58:58.079 --> 00:59:03.440
Maybe this is actually the best outcome for her and what she wants to do.
00:59:03.920 --> 00:59:04.400
Who knows?
00:59:04.559 --> 00:59:21.280
But the it would only the only thing that would uh make this work out for her is if she has uh an incredibly successful two years now in domestic legislations and policies, which at least isn't looking great.
00:59:21.440 --> 00:59:28.880
They haven't really had a lot of wins since they put on the new fishing fee law this spring.
00:59:28.960 --> 00:59:31.360
And last spring that being considered a win.
00:59:33.199 --> 00:59:40.559
And then they put on you know, taxes on on mileage on cars, which is a disaster we're seeing today with the rental car companies.
00:59:40.719 --> 00:59:46.159
Yeah, with rental car companies getting back taxes now and numbering in hundreds of millions of kroner.
00:59:46.639 --> 00:59:52.719
So they haven't exactly been kind of you know, we haven't seen major success so far.
00:59:52.880 --> 00:59:56.159
So they're kind of lack of success is not hurting our popularity so far.
00:59:56.480 --> 01:00:03.440
It is not, but maybe because to a lot of voters, uh she there is no alternative.
01:00:04.159 --> 01:00:29.519
And uh, but you know, potentially maybe you know, she can this this variation of it can work out if she has a great two and a half years and fixes all of the things that people on on the especially the no side of the uh campaign now have been pointing out we could just fix ourselves, like uh our fisheries issues, our inflation issues, our housing market and our uh agricultural issues.
01:00:29.760 --> 01:00:31.679
And that would be great if that works out.
01:00:31.840 --> 01:00:40.239
But uh other than that, I think we should I I personally want to congratulate the the cynical master plotters behind the no campaign.
01:00:40.320 --> 01:00:43.599
It was well executed and and worked out great.
01:00:43.920 --> 01:00:47.519
No, I don't want to do that, but I d I d I do want to end the podcast.
01:00:47.679 --> 01:00:48.320
Yeah.
01:00:48.800 --> 01:00:50.800
On that note, hats off to you guys.
01:00:52.239 --> 01:00:53.920
But I just gotta say I agree with you.
01:00:54.079 --> 01:00:57.840
Uh I think it was a brilliant campaign.
01:00:58.159 --> 01:00:59.920
Yeah, and I it was brilliant.
01:01:00.079 --> 01:01:13.760
I what I what is terrifying about it is it's I think in my opinion, it's kind of the first time where somebody really hit the stride that has been working for other right-wing uh campaigns in other dem s democratic countries in the in in the world.
01:01:14.480 --> 01:01:18.639
And you know, they were definitely taking notes while they did it.
01:01:18.719 --> 01:01:24.480
So I I wonder what they learned from this that will be applied in the next parliamentary elections two and a half years from now.
01:01:24.800 --> 01:01:35.679
Yeah, but but I I would hope that everyone, at least on on either side of this, can agree we need to take a serious look at campaign finance laws in this country.
01:01:36.239 --> 01:01:36.719
Yes.
01:01:36.880 --> 01:01:40.400
Uh uh that's that's one of the outtakes from this.
01:01:40.719 --> 01:01:47.679
We know next to nothing about how much money was spent on this campaign, by whom and pffff to what end.
01:01:47.920 --> 01:01:48.320
Yeah.
01:01:48.559 --> 01:01:55.039
Uh we have no idea as of this point whether or not there was any foreign interference in the campaign.
01:01:55.360 --> 01:02:10.239
There was a lot of bot activity, some people mentioned anecdotally, but uh the only thing we can I can remember on that front is that nobody asked, and then the Russians sent out the press release saying they were having nothing to do with the election, which always sounds encouraging.
01:02:11.199 --> 01:02:12.800
But but it it it's weird.
01:02:13.519 --> 01:02:16.000
Is this just some kind of uh crazy oversight?
01:02:16.239 --> 01:02:20.320
Like we have camp campaign finance laws for parliamentary and municipal elections.
01:02:21.039 --> 01:02:23.920
We just forgot to include referendums in this.
01:02:24.320 --> 01:02:25.199
Uh is that what happened?
01:02:25.519 --> 01:02:26.159
I didn't write this.
01:02:26.239 --> 01:02:26.960
Don't look at me.
01:02:27.360 --> 01:02:28.639
But yeah, that's apparently what happened.
01:02:28.719 --> 01:02:35.920
I mean uh it has been mentioned by the the chairman of uh I see uh the standards the union of unions, I guess.
01:02:36.000 --> 01:02:36.800
What do you call it?
01:02:37.039 --> 01:02:39.920
Uh uh that this should be looked into closely.
01:02:40.000 --> 01:02:44.559
Uh I haven't seen absolutely nobody asking the current coalition or them.
01:02:46.880 --> 01:03:02.239
No, I didn't come at the press conference that uh hundreds of millions of crono were spent anonymously on this campaign and nobody bothered to ask uh the the uh coalition subsequent to the Alex election whether or not they thought the elections law were good enough to handle this.
01:03:03.039 --> 01:03:14.239
Which is uh It's again a massive over I mean you at the very least you can say it's a massive oversight on on part on behalf of the government going into this, not considering that.
01:03:14.800 --> 01:03:16.079
Or doing anything to change that.
01:03:16.159 --> 01:03:18.239
Or maybe they thought that it would be beneficial to them.
01:03:18.320 --> 01:03:21.519
They could also save enough money to pay for the campaign and not have to declare it.
01:03:21.840 --> 01:03:23.760
I mean, yes, that that's also that's also true.
01:03:24.239 --> 01:03:24.880
Who can play that game?
01:03:25.039 --> 01:03:25.840
You could look at it that way, yeah.
01:03:26.079 --> 01:03:28.480
Uh well, but uh on that horrific note.
01:03:28.719 --> 01:03:45.599
On that uh positive outlook into the future, um this has been our I guess um somewhat chaotic uh overview of the past year of this issue and its final conclusion on Saturday with a no.
01:03:46.480 --> 01:03:48.480
So thanks for listening and watching.
01:03:49.199 --> 01:03:50.239
I was you on Thursday.
01:03:52.079 --> 01:03:53.039
I'm alias.
01:03:53.360 --> 01:03:53.840
Bye bye.