#39 - Dr. John Austin | Navigating the Unknown and Conquering Uncertainty!

WEBVTT
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This is the clutter clippers for midlife.
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As an adult, do you feel as if life keeps getting more chaotic and out of control?
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Do you look back on your younger self and just think, eh, what happened to me?
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I'm so confident and sure of myself back then.
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Every stuff's slack.
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It's not just you.
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It's very common as an adult to feel a sense of angst when we're facing uncertainty.
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Our guest today is Dr.
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John Austin.
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He's Dean of the Honors College and the P.
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D.
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Merrill Endowed Chair of Business at the University of New England.
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He's a researcher, an educator, and executive development leader.
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He spent more than two decades teaching professionals how to lead and how to make decisions in uncertain environments.
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He's convinced that each of us has the capability to thrive in a chaotic world, and he develops techniques to help people build the confidence they need to do so.
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He's also the author of the book Certain About Uncertainty.
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He lives on Peaks Island, Maine, with his family and his rescue dog Lucy.
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John, welcome to the show.
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Thank you so much, Todd.
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I'm happy to be here.
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Yeah, so glad to have you because I've read about what you're doing and it just speaks to right where I'm living.
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When I'm faced with uncertainty, it just, yeah, I struggle with it.
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So glad to have you.
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So thankful for that.
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Absolutely.
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You know, and you're not alone.
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I mean, that's the thing.
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All of us really struggle with this.
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And I think the thing about it is that we all think we're the only one who's struggling with it.
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Yeah.
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And it's good to hear that others are dealing with the same issues.
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And so today we get to throw some science into the mix.
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So uh glad that you're able to talk to us.
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And uh, I'm sure our listeners are going to enjoy this.
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But let's dig into your research and your work.
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So, to set the table, how do you define the word uncertainty?
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Great question.
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And it's a question that people have been talking about for uh well over a hundred years.
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And the way I define it is well, let's just say what it isn't.
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So uncertainty is not the same as risk.
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And I think this is one of the places that we really get into some trouble here.
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So risk is when you don't know what will happen, but you can kind of figure out the odds of it.
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There's data there with that.
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Uncertainty is when you can't even define the odds.
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So you can sort of think of it as if the rules of the game themselves are not really clear.
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In the book, I like to use the metaphor of the fog, which I mean, it's not a lot of people talk about fog and uncertainty together, right?
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Uh, and there's a reason for that.
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When you think about fog, fog doesn't mean danger, it means you can't see as far as you would like to see.
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So you have a choice there on whether you're afraid of it or whether you act and whether you move forward with it.
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But the fog itself is not danger.
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And that's a key thing to think about because if we're thinking about risk, actually, risk is a danger, right?
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Uncertainty, it's a little different.
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Yeah, I didn't think about that.
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Uncertainty.
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So thanks for zeroing in on that for us.
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Now, how did you decide to research uncertainty?
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And how do you do that?
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Well, so there's a couple of reasons for this.
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When I think about this, the main one is that over the last two decades, uh, I have worked with executives, I've worked with a lot of different organizations, I've worked with graduate students, undergraduates, and I no matter whether I'm talking to someone who is 20 years old, someone who has been in the industry that they're working in for 30 years, I keep seeing the same pattern.
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And that is that smart, accomplished people, they're just paralyzed by ambiguity.
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And I realized that we don't talk about this a lot.
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And maybe there was a framework out there that I could help to sort of pull people into this.
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So that was the first thing is I kept finding myself trying to help people develop their leadership, help people become more effective in organizations.
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And we weren't talking about this central thing.
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So that was that's probably the main thing.
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Then there's something else which has always stuck with me, which really got me started on thinking about the research here.
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So when I was 21 years old, I was a lifeguard.
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Uh, I was a lifeguard at an ocean beach, and I watched an 18-year-old uh minimally trained lifeguard calmly execute an absolute perfect rescue.
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It was about 10-foot surf, and it was um it it was pretty rough on our beach.
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Uh and he had no real great training.
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This was his first job, no experience in that situation, yet he acted with total confidence and he he just did it brilliantly.
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And I often kind of reflected back on that as I was going through my career and just and initially I thought, wow, isn't it amazing?
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Some people just seem to be born with this, they seem to have this ability.
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And as I worked with more and more people, I started to realize that's not really the case because I think people develop this.
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And so that's the question I started to ask.
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Why do some people thrive?
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And what is it that they have as skills that prevent them from freezing in that moment?
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Yeah, so that's that's kind of the the something that's the story that I think keeps coming back to me as I think about this.
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Side note when I was in the military, I was stationed up in Washington, DC, and uh something bad happened during one of our ceremonial events.
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It happened in front of everyone.
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And after the fact, the colonel came up and talked to me about it, and he said, Were you scared?
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And I'm like, I was petrified.
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So but somehow I just uh okay.
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Inside I'm falling apart, but I was able to do that.
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But yeah, uncertainty.
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That was I was very scared.
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Well, you know, and the other thing about that is and I I had a similar water rescue during this time as well.
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And um you are not thinking about these things in that moment, you're just reacting, you're just acting, right?
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Uh, and that's part of what what we figure out how to do here.
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Um, but there's uh we feel panicked, but sometimes we're still doing a good job of acting in in that moment with that.
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Right.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Yeah.
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Looking like a duck swimming on the surface, yeah, right, eating like crazy.
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And and this this lifeguard, he was terrified.
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He talked about that.
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Uh, and uh, but he looked great.
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And in fact, he was he was a local uh a local person.
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Uh I was not from the area, so it was great.
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We got to put him in front of all the local media and he got to be on local TV and in the newspaper for you know this rescue he did.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Training helps with uh dealing with that.
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So yeah, that's great.
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Now, what are some of the surprising things that came out of your research?
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You know, I think the biggest surprise for me is that ambiguity aversion is something that it's not innate.
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Uh, it's not something that we're born with.
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And one of the cooler research that I came across is research that shows that eight to nine-year-olds, they don't just don't exhibit aversion to ambiguity.
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But if you study later adolescence, uh young adults, you start to see that pretty much everyone has this aversion to ambiguity.
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And so that to me was really kind of a surprise.
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And it got me thinking, what's the difference?
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What happens in those years, right?
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Uh, and uh I think the other thing is that surprise itself is actually a very important trigger for us.
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So surprise events actually rewrite our brains in ways that are essential to learning.
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So if you think about that, we spend all of our time trying to remove surprise from our lives in many ways as adults, and organizations that are designed to eliminate surprise.
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And yet, surprise seems to be really important for us to be able to learn and create memory.
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So those two things I think are kind of the the my big aha's.
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Right.
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I don't like uncertainty, I don't like surprises, but then after things happen, I look back on them and it's like, oh, okay, cool.
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Well, I I learned from that.
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So Right, right.
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I just I still don't I still don't want it though.
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No, in that moment, it's it's like how how did I not see this coming?
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And there's this there's there's a fear that can come up, right?
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Now, where do we waste effort when we're facing uncertainty?
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That's a that's a great question.
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I think the um the thing that I often say to people is that there's a moment where you have to stop trying to gather data to get out of the uncertainty.
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Uh so I think we waste a lot of time trying to find the data that will make us certain.
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In genuinely uncertain situations, more data doesn't usually create clarity because the problem isn't really insufficient information, right?
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If there's something the rules have changed here.
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So you're trying to solve uncertainty with a tool of certainty, if that makes sense.
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Yeah.
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Uh and I'm not saying don't go out there and try to find it and look for that data, but at a certain point, you say, okay, it's it's not there, and I need to act on what I know here.
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So I think that's probably the biggest time waste with that.
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And then the other one is probably the if I just work harder, I'll be able to get out of this.
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And what work harder usually means is do the thing you've always done, but just do more of it, right?
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So psychologists kind of call this the threat rigidity effect, where when we're under threat, we narrow and focus more in a specific area, right?
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So you grip tighter on something when you're in that fog, you hold on to the steering wheel tighter, right?
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Uh, but uh the if the environment is shifting, we actually might have to be looking more broadly uh and looking for some of those things.
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We'll talk more about it as we go, but is it more of a take a step back and just pause type thing?
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And there is uh there is that.
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So in in these moments, there is there are cues out there, but those cues might be overshadowed by all of the details we filled in from our past experiences, right?
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So we think we see something and now it's it's not playing out that way, but we keep trying to kind of plug something in.
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So if you think about instead pausing, looking at what is unexpected.
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So actually asking yourself, I shouldn't say asking yourself, training yourself when something surprises you to, like you said, pause and then also start looking around for the thing that seems out of place.
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And now that gives you something to focus on, but it's a it's a problem to focus on, it's a puzzle, right?
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And that's that sort of gets us going.
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But now the puzzle is around paying attention to what we're what's right in front of us, as opposed to you know this automatic processing that we might have done there.
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Right.
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You know, and and you and think about this, it's it's not just pausing because there's an emotional side to that moment, right?
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You're you're you're probably a little threatened in that moment.
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So I would say also breathe.
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Just pause, breathe.
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I like it.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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All right, so that's laying the foundation.
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Let's let's talk about how uncertainty impacts us as adults.
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So now you've said that kids don't struggle with uncertainty the way adults do.
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Why is that?
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So it's interesting.
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So where this came from, maybe let me just explain the the study that first got me really aware of this.
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And that is there was a study that was um published in 2015.
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It's it's referenced in my book in the first couple chapters.
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And in it, children and adults were given options between a choice that has known odds and a choice that has unknown odds.
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And this is a type of decision choice that's been around for 50 years.
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Uh, and it's a way that we assess this idea of whether or not we have a preference for certainty or uncertainty.
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What they found was that adults strongly preferred the known odds problem.
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Uh and uh the kids, it was kind of 50-50.
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They really just uh didn't care.
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And I saw a subsequent follow-up study where kids were actually interviewed about this, and some kids said, yeah, it's more fun to not know.
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That was kind of interesting, right?
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And so when I read that study, it it got me thinking, well, in some ways you could say we're born as explorers, and then as we learn, we kind of shift from explorers to warriors, right?
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We start thinking about you know the the downside of not knowing, whereas kids might be also thinking about the adventure of not knowing, right?
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So that doesn't really explain why, but uh there has been some theorizing that to grow and survive, right, in the world as a kid, you just everything's new for a long time, and you still have this habit of my job is to mess with things and to figure out what they do, and that maybe over time we're done messing with things, right?
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We kind of should have a different way of thinking of that.
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I will say one thing though, is that kids do show a bias towards things that are familiar.
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So that's one uh that's a similar type of thing, but um that what that means is if they already, if something looks familiar to them, they will choose that.
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Um that's a little different than choosing something because you know the odds of it.
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So that was a nice thing to shake out because that was a question.
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Is that all what that we're measuring here with this?
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Yeah.
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I think the other thing, maybe the question isn't why are kids more comfortable with uncertainty, but what are all those things that happen that make us less uncertain?
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And you know, the there's a Pavlovian response here, right?
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To how how we are rewarded in schools.
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Um we get rewarded for having the right answer, not for um asking good questions necessarily.
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Career incentives are all about knowing and social conditioning, right?
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Uh, you're not gonna look like the type of person people want to follow if you don't really look like you know the answer, right?
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So I think all of these things lead to a very clear preference over time with that.
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Yeah.
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It sounds it seems like ego would become a part of that as well.
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Yeah.
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You know, and anything that um is uncertain, kind of you might get embarrassed or something.
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So the fear of being embarrassed is so many things there.
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But yeah.
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Yeah.
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Well, kids don't care though.
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They're just like, whatever.
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So I think you're right.
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I think, yeah.
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But they have to eat chicken nuggets and peanut butter and jelly every day.
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So they don't want interesting, right?
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So kids are all about the adventure except for when it comes to food.
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Yeah.
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I want chicken nuggets.
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So we we talked earlier about uh how we waste effort.
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Now, what traps do we fall into?
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I think you just alluded to one of those.
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What traps do we fall into as adults when facing uncertainty?
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Well, and you alluded to one of them as well, which is that um there's the expert trap, right?
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That we we we um we we need to feel like we're the expert.
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So there's a couple that and there's something called the illusion of explanatory depth, uh, also, which is that we feel like we know how things work if we know a little bit about them, right?
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Uh and part this all ties into a broader thing, which is which there's an illusion of control, that um the more expertise we accumulate, the more our expertise becomes our identity, right?
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Yeah, so admitting that our expertise is not giving us an answer can actually kind of be very threatening, not just to um in that situation, but almost a threat to who we are, right?
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Uh I think that's a big one.
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And then I'm sure you're familiar with Daniel Kahneman's work, which is the thinking fast and thinking slow, uh, and all of his work that he did with Amos Tversky, I think a lot of that really comes into play here.
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And their prospect theory, which talks about loss aversion, is I think key here.
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And that is that initial losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains feel good.
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So they studied this in the 1970s.
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And if you think about that, that means that uncertainty we think more about the loss side because it's more painful than we think about the potential gain side.
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So that's a very, I know it's kind of an academic way of thinking of this, but I think I think it's interesting.
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It it suggests that we're gonna hold on to what we know, the status quo, because that new thing opens up the possibility of both loss and gain, but we feel loss more powerfully, right?
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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And when you said, just to confess, when you said, I'm sure you're familiar with this person's work, I went, I'm sorry.
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Right.
00:18:24.319 --> 00:18:26.559
I see that's that's like I'm inside I went.
00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:28.160
I just set you up, right?
00:18:28.160 --> 00:18:29.920
I that's like the worst thing to say, right?
00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:34.480
Because it's like I'm I'm setting you up to have to act like you know what I'm talking about.
00:18:34.720 --> 00:18:35.759
Oh, I was pretending to.
00:18:35.759 --> 00:18:37.680
I was sitting here going, oh yeah.
00:18:37.680 --> 00:18:38.319
No.
00:18:38.319 --> 00:18:40.319
But then you said uh, you know, some of the things.
00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:44.000
Oh yeah, and I actually I had heard of those things, so that's cool.
00:18:44.240 --> 00:18:50.319
But uh yeah, the ego, I went, Wait, I'm gonna have to remember this because it really is a that's a great example.
00:18:50.319 --> 00:18:52.880
I'll keep using saying that.
00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:54.319
Right in that moment.
00:18:54.319 --> 00:18:56.559
You're talking to me, and I'm going, uh yeah.
00:18:56.559 --> 00:18:58.000
So yeah, that happened.
00:18:58.079 --> 00:19:08.319
So literally sitting here, the uncertainty struck, and I went, oh I want to flag that for a moment because think about uh I I I fell into something that I often coach people not to do.
00:19:08.319 --> 00:19:13.759
It's really an arrogant thing to start a sentence with, of course, you know.
00:19:13.759 --> 00:19:24.799
Uh and it it's it really is a it's setting yourself up as I know something, and okay, I'm I'm going to say that you should know it too.
00:19:24.799 --> 00:19:25.279
Right.
00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:26.559
Think about that, right?
00:19:26.559 --> 00:19:30.480
That that's not a that's not a good way to have an interaction with someone.
00:19:30.559 --> 00:19:34.160
Uh well, I didn't take it as arrogant, I took it as I should know this.
00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:34.400
Right.
00:19:34.640 --> 00:19:42.640
And I went, oh it's it's it's the it's the the person who's taught facilitation over the years catching myself for falling into my own trap.
00:19:42.960 --> 00:19:43.519
No, all good.
00:19:43.519 --> 00:19:45.519
No, but it is uh what you're talking about.
00:19:45.519 --> 00:19:47.920
Yeah, I I yeah, I I had heard those things.
00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:48.960
So that's uh that's cool.
00:19:49.200 --> 00:20:02.000
Uh you know, let me just add one other, which is that uh those are individual things, but recognize that all of our organizational incentives as well are biased towards knowing things and knowing the with that.
00:20:02.000 --> 00:20:02.480
Yeah.
00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:03.599
And social comparison.
00:20:03.599 --> 00:20:14.640
In the corporate world, we've got dashboards, we're measuring everything and we're looking at the numbers and what can we do to change and you know, just trying to deal with that.
00:20:14.640 --> 00:20:17.200
Uncertainty scares organizations, I think.
00:20:17.519 --> 00:20:22.559
And so as a result, it scares people within organizations to to act uncertain, right?
00:20:22.559 --> 00:20:30.720
So that means that we also only see people who are performing as if they know everything uh around us.
00:20:30.720 --> 00:20:37.039
Uh so we're all doing this performance as if we actually know everything at the all of the Yes.
00:20:37.359 --> 00:20:39.279
I I see that so often.
00:20:39.279 --> 00:20:47.119
It's like you go into meetings and people are talking and sharing information or asking questions they already know the answers to and things like that.
00:20:47.119 --> 00:20:49.279
So and uh I've done it.
00:20:49.279 --> 00:20:52.079
I'm not excluding myself here, but yeah.
00:20:52.079 --> 00:20:59.200
So especially when you're doing a lot of tech layoffs and everything, people start behaving in this way to, you know, you have to be the expert.
00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:11.200
But um side note, I did a brief, brief reading on uh reversal theory and telic state versus paratelic state and all of that.
00:21:11.200 --> 00:21:15.519
Let me know what you think of this as it relates to an organization.
00:21:15.519 --> 00:21:26.799
If leaders in an organization can create an environment where it's almost playful, then that helps to deal with some of those issues with uncertainty, right?
00:21:27.039 --> 00:21:27.759
Well, what do you think?
00:21:27.759 --> 00:21:44.319
Yeah, so uh so that's it that's interesting because if we accept that ambiguity creates anxiety, then reducing anxiety might actually help us deal with more ambiguity, right?
00:21:44.319 --> 00:21:48.000
So uh it in that way, uh I think it makes sense.
00:21:48.000 --> 00:21:53.839
If you're putting people at ease, you're allowing you're giving people this idea that they're not stressed.
00:21:53.839 --> 00:21:59.759
Then when you do introduce uncertainty in that situation, you're already working from a lower level of.
00:21:59.759 --> 00:22:00.559
Stress.
00:22:00.559 --> 00:22:16.640
So it it strikes me that absolutely even if you can't directly help people be more comfortable with uncertainty, putting people more at ease is another way to get them able to better respond in those moments.
00:22:16.640 --> 00:22:17.279
Yeah.
00:22:17.680 --> 00:22:18.079
Yeah.
00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:19.200
That's cool.
00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:24.480
Because uh if leaders are uncertain and they're fearful, it's very contagious.
00:22:24.480 --> 00:22:28.720
And so that's when everybody starts acting like, you know, I've got to do something.
00:22:29.119 --> 00:22:30.319
Yeah, let me just build on that.
00:22:30.319 --> 00:22:39.119
That the the thing that I find interesting also is that we don't role model not knowing very well.
00:22:39.119 --> 00:22:50.799
And um it, you know, maybe you say, well, John, you don't really need that, you know, when you're dealing with people who've been working for 20 years, but when you're dealing with newer employees, uh, I think it's important.
00:22:50.799 --> 00:22:54.319
And I think about this a lot now that I'm working with undergraduates.
00:22:54.319 --> 00:23:04.799
Uh I try to be the professor who kind of doesn't know what he's doing so much.
00:23:04.799 --> 00:23:11.119
I mean, you know, I have expertise, but I want to be able to show when I don't know.
00:23:11.119 --> 00:23:13.119
Uh, and so I think about that.
00:23:13.119 --> 00:23:19.279
And I think it's important for people to be able to see that is an option sometimes.
00:23:19.839 --> 00:23:20.160
Yeah.
00:23:20.160 --> 00:23:21.599
Um that's cool.
00:23:21.599 --> 00:23:23.279
My background is engineering.
00:23:23.279 --> 00:23:26.319
I studied electrical engineering and at NC State.
00:23:26.319 --> 00:23:32.799
And one of the coolest things I saw were professors that would just sit down and work on a problem and they didn't know.
00:23:32.799 --> 00:23:39.759
So I'm a, you know, I'm younger, I'm you know, sitting under the tutelage of a professor, and this guy's got a PhD.
00:23:39.759 --> 00:23:45.839
When they would just sit down and work on a problem, and there was no ego, there was no, well, I don't know this.
00:23:45.839 --> 00:23:47.039
They would figure it out.
00:23:47.039 --> 00:23:58.079
And it was that was cool to watch because in a lot of scenarios, it's like like maybe you're a dad, you know, you don't want your kids to look at you and go, oh, he doesn't know the answer.
00:23:58.079 --> 00:24:00.079
And so you kind of pretend maybe.
00:24:00.079 --> 00:24:05.440
But that was very instructive, though, to sit with a professor and and they go, huh.
00:24:05.440 --> 00:24:07.680
And then just sit and start figuring things out.
00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:08.559
That's cool.
00:24:08.559 --> 00:24:14.160
But uh that doesn't work too well in corporate environments, though.
00:24:14.559 --> 00:24:16.480
And you know, that is a shame, right?
00:24:16.480 --> 00:24:25.680
But uh if we could um there are some teams that do do that well, that that work together, it sort of define and what you're talking about.
00:24:25.680 --> 00:24:36.079
One of the great things about being trained as an engineer is learning how to do that, learning how to sort of break down a system, understand its parts, and really figure out what you don't know, right?
00:24:36.079 --> 00:24:41.519
So you're seeing the process that the professor uses to figure something out they don't know.
00:24:41.519 --> 00:24:42.799
And I think that's so valuable.
00:24:42.799 --> 00:24:46.000
And I think engineering is a field that does a great job with that.
00:24:46.000 --> 00:24:55.359
I think you're right there that in in most of our work settings, we don't have that opportunity to see and work together in doing that type of stuff.
00:24:55.359 --> 00:24:56.160
Yeah.
00:24:56.559 --> 00:25:04.319
Yeah, if you're dealing with a customer and something is wrong, ambiguity is, you know, because they get frustrated.
00:25:04.319 --> 00:25:07.759
So you have to kind of manage the customers' frustrations and things.
00:25:07.759 --> 00:25:19.440
But then, but if if you can really dig into a problem, and what I've seen really good engineers is they see the problem and it's an anomaly and they're excited about solving it.
00:25:19.440 --> 00:25:20.799
That's that's really cool.
00:25:20.799 --> 00:25:23.920
But uh yeah, learning how to get to that place.
00:25:24.000 --> 00:25:24.720
That's that's the thing.
00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:32.400
You know, I think a field that's done a lot better at it recently, uh, it's a field we used to say was really bad at it, and it's medical doctors.
00:25:32.400 --> 00:25:44.319
So uh for years, doctors were found to be the most overconfident in the in the uh the people who are most uh one of the professions that was least able to admit they don't know something.
00:25:44.319 --> 00:25:45.759
And and it makes sense, right?
00:25:45.759 --> 00:25:50.240
Because you only go to a doctor for an answer and you're not satisfied if you don't get it.
00:25:50.240 --> 00:25:56.559
But if you've noticed, doctors now are seem to be a bit better, at least in the United States.
00:25:56.559 --> 00:26:11.839
And I I attribute that to much better attention to this issue in medical school, where doctors are now able to sit with a patient next to them and try to figure out what's going on.
00:26:11.839 --> 00:26:14.319
And it makes us more comfortable as patients.
00:26:14.319 --> 00:26:14.960
That's great.
00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:15.599
Yeah.
00:26:15.599 --> 00:26:22.799
So so I think that's what that's a field that has really advanced uh in their ability to do this.
00:26:23.440 --> 00:26:28.640
Now let's let's dig into your, you call it the uncertainty intelligence framework.
00:26:28.640 --> 00:26:30.960
So in your book, you lay that out.
00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:32.880
Uncertainty intelligence framework.
00:26:32.880 --> 00:26:33.839
Can you describe that?
00:26:34.160 --> 00:26:34.480
Yeah.
00:26:34.480 --> 00:26:44.160
So uncertainty intelligence is uh, first of all, the the key thing here is that it's not a personality trait you have, right?
00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:47.279
The ability to thrive in an uncertain situation.
00:26:47.279 --> 00:26:54.799
When I went and looked at people who were doing this well, what I saw is they had an underlying set of skills.
00:26:54.799 --> 00:26:58.720
And those skills could be developed through practice.
00:26:58.720 --> 00:27:09.440
And if you do this, you make better decisions, uh, you maintain your performance better under stress, uh, and you just demonstrate stronger leadership.
00:27:09.440 --> 00:27:12.319
And this is this is not necessarily new.
00:27:12.319 --> 00:27:15.039
What I did is just pull this together.
00:27:15.039 --> 00:27:20.240
And there's three areas that are part of uncertainty intelligence.
00:27:20.240 --> 00:27:28.079
Uh the first one is anticipatory awareness, and that's the ability to see and project emerging changes.
00:27:28.079 --> 00:27:34.720
The second is adaptability, that's revising your plans as the world changes around you.
00:27:34.720 --> 00:27:43.839
Uh, and then the third is learning agility, and that's rapidly developing new skills and competences, uh, and learning which of your old skills to throw out.
00:27:43.839 --> 00:27:58.000
So I kind of use a shorthand for these, which is uh see react prepare, in that those people who are good at uncertainty have developed all three of these skills.
00:27:58.000 --> 00:27:59.039
Oh yeah.
00:27:59.039 --> 00:28:08.640
So that's kind of and so in the book, I like to dig into for each one of them what are some techniques you can use to develop these types of intelligence.
00:28:08.640 --> 00:28:10.640
And what are some of those tools from the book?
00:28:10.640 --> 00:28:11.920
I'm glad you asked.
00:28:11.920 --> 00:28:19.200
So uh I do a lot of work with uh foresight.
00:28:19.200 --> 00:28:24.079
So forecasting is we try to predict what the most likely future is.
00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:29.440
So foresight is anticipating the range of possible futures that are out there.
00:28:29.440 --> 00:28:29.759
Okay.
00:28:29.759 --> 00:28:41.440
And so I've I've spent a lot of time in my career working with teams to help them identify multiple potential futures and then use that to develop more robust plans around that.
00:28:41.440 --> 00:29:02.640
Uh, and so one of the tools in my book is something I call uncertainty vectoring, which is a tool that I developed that I helps you really think about how you identify the different uncertainties in your situation, map how they interact with each other, and then use that to generate different futures.
00:29:02.640 --> 00:29:07.440
Uh and this has been done for years in an area called scenario planning.
00:29:07.440 --> 00:29:11.680
And I just uh adjusted it a little bit to focus more on the uncertainties.
00:29:11.680 --> 00:29:16.319
This is actually a great way to develop anticipatory awareness here.
00:29:16.319 --> 00:29:27.359
It it gets you to uh anticipate different ways the world could go before you find yourself in the position of being surprised and having to react to them.
00:29:27.359 --> 00:29:29.279
So that this is a tool I love.
00:29:29.279 --> 00:29:36.160
And uh because you can use it in a group setting, you can use it individually when thinking about your careers, those types of things.
00:29:36.160 --> 00:29:37.119
Nice.
00:29:37.119 --> 00:29:43.599
As it relates to um adapting, this is where you're reacting in that moment.
00:29:43.599 --> 00:29:51.680
Uh, there's really a tool that I like to think about here, which is uh it I call it the three translation moments.
00:29:51.680 --> 00:30:00.400
And what this is is translating what's going on in in uh the world to how do I respond to it very quickly.
00:30:00.400 --> 00:30:19.359
And it comes down to very quickly in that moment being able to create a new mindset, uh, so that's seeing things a little differently, uh, moving from that mindset to new behaviors, so acting differently, and then anchoring it.
00:30:19.359 --> 00:30:21.920
So embedding that in the situation.
00:30:21.920 --> 00:30:27.599
And I think of that as making sure that you're committing to an action.
00:30:27.599 --> 00:30:37.519
So those are three translation moments, and each one of them requires you to develop sort of a different type of skill as when you're in that moment of change.
00:30:37.519 --> 00:30:50.079
The key thing about adapting is this is uh what you see in emergency situations when certain people seem to just be really good at getting things moving, right?
00:30:50.079 --> 00:30:53.039
Um that's that adaptability skill.
00:30:53.039 --> 00:31:11.519
And then one other one, if you're working with teams, uh I like to think about uh how it is that uh we can very quickly realign the skills and expertise that we have in a group when a new situation comes up.
00:31:11.519 --> 00:31:22.559
And so there's a tool I use called Situated Expertise, which really builds into uh how you can redeploy your teams and redesign things around new situations.
00:31:22.559 --> 00:31:26.319
So I hope that's not going too much into the weeds with the no, no.
00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:27.200
That's cool.
00:31:27.440 --> 00:31:30.799
So you mentioned anticipatory awareness.
00:31:30.799 --> 00:31:33.599
And what is that again?
00:31:34.000 --> 00:31:42.559
So that it's um scanning broadly, um, detecting weak signals uh and projecting how change unfolds.
00:31:42.880 --> 00:31:43.200
Okay.
00:31:43.200 --> 00:31:47.519
And then adaptability, when you know, we know that adapt to things as they emerge.
00:31:47.519 --> 00:31:58.799
And then that learning agility is cool because I mean the way things change in the tech industry, it's like, okay, AI disrupting a lot of things, and so teams have to be revamped.
00:31:58.799 --> 00:32:00.400
People have to learn new things.
00:32:00.400 --> 00:32:01.359
So that's cool.
00:32:01.359 --> 00:32:12.559
And this, I mean, this applies to individuals as well, because as an individual dealing with family situations, dealing with work, dealing with all of these things, things are constantly changing.
00:32:12.559 --> 00:32:19.680
And so we have to, as things emerge, have the ability to pick pick up new skills and learn things.
00:32:19.680 --> 00:32:20.799
So that's yeah.
00:32:20.799 --> 00:32:23.759
I mean, this applies to teams, to companies, to individuals, everything.
00:32:24.079 --> 00:32:32.079
You know, you know, and I I want to say that a key part of learning agility is also being prepared to unlearn things.
00:32:32.079 --> 00:32:32.720
Right.
00:32:32.720 --> 00:32:34.079
So think of this.
00:32:34.079 --> 00:32:43.759
I'm I'm I have as a professor right now, I have students entering college who are not gonna leave college for four years.
00:32:43.759 --> 00:32:49.359
Think about how long four years in is based on how quickly the world is changing.
00:32:49.359 --> 00:32:56.720
So there is not a professor out there who can honestly say everything they're teaching is gonna be relevant in four years.
00:32:56.720 --> 00:32:59.119
At least the way I see it, right?
00:32:59.119 --> 00:33:06.720
So we our job is to prepare them for that future, but we ourselves don't necessarily know what that is.
00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:21.759
So the best thing that we can do is train students on how to learn and also develop that ability to unlearn and realize that something that we taught them is no longer relevant, right?
00:33:21.759 --> 00:33:22.640
Right.
00:33:22.640 --> 00:33:23.440
Yeah.
00:33:23.920 --> 00:33:24.079
Yeah.
00:33:24.240 --> 00:33:30.160
I mean, one of the things that hits us in the workplace is something new technology comes out.
00:33:30.160 --> 00:33:32.559
We're working with the old technology.
00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:36.079
We know how things operate there and we don't want to change.
00:33:36.079 --> 00:33:39.440
And sometimes we end up losing our jobs as a result.
00:33:39.440 --> 00:33:45.599
So uh yeah, let's uh my background was uh telephony.
00:33:45.599 --> 00:33:50.079
And so when I started, it was working in voice over IP.
00:33:50.079 --> 00:33:55.759
And so we ended up, we were doing a lot of work with customers who were replacing old PBXs.
00:33:55.759 --> 00:34:04.400
And so the old PBX technicians, I say old, the folks that knew the PBX technology did not want to learn the voice over IP.
00:34:04.400 --> 00:34:08.800
But those PBXs were going away.
00:34:08.800 --> 00:34:16.800
And so we literally we deployed a new phone system for a customer, and they they knew these old Nortel PBXs, the engineers.
00:34:16.800 --> 00:34:19.519
They literally refused to learn the new system.
00:34:19.519 --> 00:34:21.679
And we were we were trying to teach them.
00:34:21.679 --> 00:34:28.079
And they ended up after the project was over, they had to interview for their jobs, and they you know lost their job.
00:34:28.079 --> 00:34:30.239
If they had just learned the new system.
00:34:30.239 --> 00:34:33.039
So, anyways, but yeah, learning agility.
00:34:33.039 --> 00:34:37.920
You gotta be able to stop doing the old stuff, start doing the new.
00:34:37.920 --> 00:34:39.760
So, yeah, it's it was difficult though.
00:34:39.760 --> 00:34:42.239
That's that's often a very difficult thing for people to do.
00:34:42.960 --> 00:34:44.960
You've gotten really good at that old thing.
00:34:44.960 --> 00:34:47.280
Uh, you know, yes, and that's tough.
00:34:47.280 --> 00:34:50.000
Yes, we I think we have to have empathy for this.
00:34:50.000 --> 00:34:50.960
It is tough.
00:34:50.960 --> 00:34:56.079
Uh and and it's totally legitimate for someone to say, I am not, I just am not interested in this.
00:34:56.079 --> 00:35:04.800
But you when you make that choice, you also do have to understand that that old thing might not be as valuable anymore.
00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:06.719
Yeah, yeah.
00:35:06.719 --> 00:35:24.000
So, but interestingly enough, I met with a customer two, three years ago that it was a university, and these guys had built their PBX system in 1984, and it was the same crew still working there today.
00:35:24.000 --> 00:35:30.480
And I went, it was awesome, but they were eager to learn the new stuff, and it was it was very cool.
00:35:30.480 --> 00:35:39.280
So they were they were a good crew, but these these guys they built this phone system in when Reagan was president, and that's amazing.
00:35:39.280 --> 00:35:41.119
So it was awesome.
00:35:41.119 --> 00:35:44.639
So uh so let's talk about some practical advice now.
00:35:44.639 --> 00:35:49.920
What what are some habits people can start today in dealing with uncertainty?
00:35:50.239 --> 00:35:53.599
I like to think small, and habits that's a great way to think of it, right?
00:35:53.599 --> 00:36:03.760
So so yeah, so the um every day there is some uncertainty in your life, and we do such a good job of just pushing it aside.
00:36:03.760 --> 00:36:12.639
So, one thing that I would suggest is have start a kind of a daily uh decision lab, right?
00:36:12.639 --> 00:36:26.880
So for two weeks, just maybe on your commute or just at the end of your day, log one decision you made that day that you made, even though there was some uncertainty, right?
00:36:26.880 --> 00:36:39.920
And you start tracking this, you start to notice that there are certain types of uncertainties that you defer decisions because of, and there are others that you're totally comfortable with.
00:36:39.920 --> 00:36:45.199
And it gives you sort of an insight into the your own way of dealing with uncertainty.
00:36:45.199 --> 00:36:47.920
And what are the uncertainties that you might be ignoring with this?
00:36:47.920 --> 00:36:52.400
So it's kind of it's kind of a way to capture some of those default biases that you have.
00:36:52.639 --> 00:36:52.800
Okay.
00:36:52.960 --> 00:37:03.599
And then then a second thing I often uh talk about on the when you're trying to make sense of things is are you looking somewhere that no one else is looking?
00:37:03.599 --> 00:37:18.800
And one way to get to start practicing that is give yourself a time, like set it at 15 minutes a week, put it on your calendar and look somewhere outside of your field.
00:37:18.800 --> 00:37:21.039
Just go look at something, right?
00:37:21.039 --> 00:37:26.800
So scan something that no one else is looking at, and you don't even know why it's relevant.
00:37:26.800 --> 00:37:33.920
Uh, but you basically what you're starting to do is say, I'm just gonna go sit and listen to this thing.
00:37:33.920 --> 00:37:37.280
Uh, maybe it's an awesome podcast, right?
00:37:37.280 --> 00:37:46.000
And it's something that um you you start to kind of see things outside of your field.
00:37:46.000 --> 00:37:52.480
It's one way that you start to build those muscles of anticipatory awareness because you're looking more broadly with that.
00:37:52.480 --> 00:37:54.960
I think those would be two habits that I think have high.
00:37:55.440 --> 00:38:01.280
And I would think I would think that that would also start to foster that wonder that we had as kids as well, right?
00:38:01.280 --> 00:38:01.920
Right, yeah.
00:38:01.920 --> 00:38:03.440
So learn learning something new.
00:38:03.679 --> 00:38:04.719
That's that's absolutely true.
00:38:04.719 --> 00:38:09.519
And and I do think there's something about that curiosity of saying, Oh, I wonder what I wonder about this.
00:38:09.519 --> 00:38:10.159
What is it?
00:38:10.159 --> 00:38:11.199
What is it that doing?
00:38:11.199 --> 00:38:15.280
I I I I'm I have this benefit, I'm on of a university campus.
00:38:15.280 --> 00:38:20.559
So I can just go in and listen to lectures in fields that I know nothing about, right?
00:38:20.559 --> 00:38:21.599
And that's cool.
00:38:21.599 --> 00:38:28.239
Especially in the science fields, I'm totally lost, but I'm fascinated uh by trying to figure it out.
00:38:28.239 --> 00:38:33.119
And also I love the passion of the people talking about it.
00:38:33.119 --> 00:38:37.519
And so I always learn something, even if it's just learning how little I know.
00:38:38.480 --> 00:38:40.000
Yeah, that's so cool.
00:38:40.000 --> 00:38:52.480
Yeah, one time I I was in lecture, it was a physics lecture, and it was man, this guy, the professor, was uh he must have been 70, 80 years old, but still going strong, and he loved what he did.
00:38:52.480 --> 00:38:59.280
And just the passion that he had in talking about physics, and he was talking about the universe in one lecture.
00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:07.119
He spent an entire hour speaking off the cuff from no notes, just talking about the known universe.
00:39:07.119 --> 00:39:09.039
And oh man, it was wonderful.
00:39:09.039 --> 00:39:12.239
Literally everyone was just wrapped attention.
00:39:12.239 --> 00:39:13.519
So yeah, that's cool.
00:39:13.519 --> 00:39:15.920
But yeah, that guy was he was preserving that.
00:39:15.920 --> 00:39:19.840
He had that wonder after in working in the field for decades, right?
00:39:19.840 --> 00:39:21.519
And he still had that wonder.
00:39:21.519 --> 00:39:23.519
It was cool, but uh yeah.
00:39:23.519 --> 00:39:29.039
Now, what are one or two practices that give 80% of the benefits?
00:39:31.440 --> 00:39:33.199
So was it those two you just mentioned?
00:39:33.199 --> 00:39:34.079
Oh, no, no, no.
00:39:34.079 --> 00:39:36.000
I'm just uh that's such a good question.
00:39:36.000 --> 00:39:53.840
And um, so there's one technique that I keep finding myself using with different groups, and I might kind of adjust it a little bit for it depending on what the issue is, but it I call it the backward-forward flip.
00:39:53.840 --> 00:40:02.320
And it's um regularly looking back at surprises that hit you over a set time period.
00:40:02.320 --> 00:40:16.800
I often use three years, but you could maybe maybe it's one year, but you look back, you set a date in time, say three years ago, exact, you know, um in April 2023, right?
00:40:16.800 --> 00:40:19.760
Uh or something, whatever it is, whatever's three years ago.
00:40:19.760 --> 00:40:28.800
And then you say, all right, where exactly was I and what has surprised me that has happened since then?
00:40:28.800 --> 00:40:37.599
Really think about what has happened that that you just didn't anticipate, and use that to reflect on what did you miss?
00:40:37.599 --> 00:40:39.760
Where were you not looking?
00:40:39.760 --> 00:40:41.760
Were there weak signals out there?
00:40:41.760 --> 00:40:43.679
Where would you have seen them?
00:40:43.679 --> 00:40:48.480
Were you resisting adapting your own uh way of working?
00:40:48.480 --> 00:40:52.400
And how did you eventually learn that?
00:40:52.400 --> 00:41:10.800
And then take that and now after you've done all that, just flip it forward and you start to really think a little differently about the amount of uncertainty that might be about to hit you, and then also give you some ideas and different things you might do about it.
00:41:10.800 --> 00:41:13.440
So I think that's a really helpful one.
00:41:13.440 --> 00:41:31.599
And um interesting observation when I do this with younger people, when I ask them to describe future uncertainties, they tend to um focus on positive uncertainties.
00:41:31.599 --> 00:41:38.639
When I do this with groups of people that have been around longer, it flips.
00:41:38.639 --> 00:41:44.480
And when people talk about future uncertainties, they tend to tend to talk more about negative uncertainties.
00:41:44.480 --> 00:41:46.320
I don't know any research on this.
00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:49.840
I'm just observing what I've seen in groups with that.
00:41:49.840 --> 00:41:52.639
So I think that's that's that's one practice.
00:41:52.639 --> 00:41:55.119
Um what do you call it again?
00:41:55.119 --> 00:41:56.960
I call it the backward-forward flip.
00:41:56.960 --> 00:41:59.840
You look backward and then you flip it, look forward.
00:41:59.840 --> 00:42:03.679
I don't know if that's a good name, but it's the one I came up with probably about 10 years ago.
00:42:04.559 --> 00:42:04.960
Yeah.
00:42:04.960 --> 00:42:08.639
Yeah, it would seem then that journaling would be a help for that.
00:42:08.639 --> 00:42:18.480
So if you um especially if you're maintaining like an electronic journal, writing is good because it's it helps with just tactile the touch and everything.
00:42:18.480 --> 00:42:27.599
But then if you have an electronic journal that you're storing things in, it seems like you can look back on that and uh call out the big major events that that hit you.
00:42:27.679 --> 00:42:28.960
But uh Yeah, yeah.
00:42:28.960 --> 00:42:29.599
Yeah, yeah.
00:42:29.599 --> 00:42:36.960
So I I I think that's a great way to sort of realize that that we're living through it and we have successfully lived through a whole bunch of uncertainty.
00:42:36.960 --> 00:42:41.119
So we're overwhelmed right now, perhaps, but you know what?
00:42:41.119 --> 00:42:43.519
We were in the past and we're still here, right?
00:42:43.519 --> 00:42:48.480
Um you know, and the other one is really just a simple question.
00:42:48.480 --> 00:42:54.719
And get get in the habit of asking people what keeps them up at night or what are they uncertain about?
00:42:54.719 --> 00:42:57.679
Because as we've talked about, people hide their uncertainty.
00:42:57.679 --> 00:42:59.039
You never see it.
00:42:59.039 --> 00:43:12.960
And I think asking people what is it that they don't know, and and inviting them to talk about the future, because then it's not scary for them to admit to you they don't know because none of us know it.
00:43:12.960 --> 00:43:24.159
So asking them that that question of what what do you wish you knew about what was going to happen in the next few years, you you start to realize it normalizes uncertainty.
00:43:24.159 --> 00:43:31.199
We're all uncertain, and everyone who just acts like they know what they're doing, they're as uncertain as the rest of us.
00:43:31.199 --> 00:43:38.400
And so you you often learn a lot when you especially if you ask someone who's quite skilled uh these types of questions.
00:43:38.960 --> 00:43:39.599
That's funny.
00:43:39.599 --> 00:43:40.960
Yeah, those interview questions.
00:43:40.960 --> 00:43:43.280
Where do you see yourself in five to ten years?
00:43:43.280 --> 00:43:49.199
And then you make you make up an answer, and it's like, you know, you're not gonna be you have no idea where you're gonna be in five years.
00:43:49.199 --> 00:43:50.400
Right, right, right.
00:43:50.400 --> 00:43:52.079
So yeah.
00:43:52.079 --> 00:43:55.920
I think I was asked that once, and I said, you know, I don't know.
00:43:55.920 --> 00:43:57.360
And I'm I'm good with that.
00:43:57.360 --> 00:43:59.119
So it's a good answer.
00:43:59.280 --> 00:43:59.760
Good answer.
00:44:00.159 --> 00:44:07.199
And here's why, because when I was 18, I had my entire life mapped out and it ne it didn't work out anything like I anticipated.
00:44:07.599 --> 00:44:10.239
See, I I'm guess I was that opposite person.
00:44:10.239 --> 00:44:13.039
I had no idea what I was gonna do when I entered college.
00:44:13.039 --> 00:44:14.159
I think back on that.
00:44:14.159 --> 00:44:19.599
I was like, and then I kind of just rolled with the flow or yeah, kind of went with it for a while.
00:44:19.599 --> 00:44:24.000
And then um I it it seemed to work out initially.
00:44:24.159 --> 00:44:27.119
Uh yeah, that's cool.
00:44:27.119 --> 00:44:28.400
So funny.
00:44:28.400 --> 00:44:31.360
But um wow, well, that's a good place to wrap it up.
00:44:31.360 --> 00:44:34.159
Um so where do people find you?
00:44:34.639 --> 00:44:42.400
I have a website that is certain about uncertainty, and that there's dashes between those words.
00:44:42.400 --> 00:44:44.880
Certain about uncertainty.com.
00:44:44.880 --> 00:44:46.800
Yeah, we'll include links in the description.
00:44:46.800 --> 00:44:48.639
Okay, and you you can find me on LinkedIn.
00:44:48.639 --> 00:44:51.440
I am I'm open to anyone reaching out to me on LinkedIn.
00:44:51.440 --> 00:44:54.400
Uh there's about 10,000 John Austins on LinkedIn.
00:44:54.400 --> 00:44:59.679
So I'm the one who's the you know university professor and the dean of the honors college.
00:44:59.679 --> 00:45:02.320
So those are the two best places to find me.
00:45:02.960 --> 00:45:03.280
Okay.
00:45:03.280 --> 00:45:07.679
Yeah, so we'll include links in the description, and uh so you folks can find him.
00:45:07.679 --> 00:45:11.039
And I'll also include a link to uh John's book.
00:45:11.039 --> 00:45:12.880
So we'll uh we'll have that up there.
00:45:12.880 --> 00:45:16.400
I'm looking forward to picking up a copy of the book and uh digging into that.
00:45:16.400 --> 00:45:19.760
So uh I mean here are my takeaways from this, right?
00:45:19.760 --> 00:45:21.360
We have agency.
00:45:21.360 --> 00:45:27.840
And life, if we allow it, life it just happens to us.
00:45:27.840 --> 00:45:29.199
But we can't look at it that way.
00:45:29.199 --> 00:45:30.079
We have agency.
00:45:30.079 --> 00:45:35.920
It's not just happening, we have the ability to shape how things are turning out for us.
00:45:35.920 --> 00:45:44.239
Now, we do make our plans for the future, but we we have to realize that the future is never going to perfectly match what we imagined.
00:45:44.239 --> 00:45:50.480
And in military terms, there's that common saying, no plan ever survives contact with the enemy.
00:45:50.480 --> 00:45:57.840
So we need that ability to embrace uncertainty and be willing to adjust as life unfolds.
00:45:57.840 --> 00:45:59.840
And I confess I'm not good at it.
00:45:59.840 --> 00:46:02.639
And that's why when I when I saw Dr.
00:46:02.639 --> 00:46:06.559
Austin's content out there, I was like, wow, love to talk to this guy.
00:46:06.559 --> 00:46:08.880
So thanks for thanks for responding.
00:46:08.880 --> 00:46:09.760
I I appreciate it.
00:46:09.760 --> 00:46:11.599
And it's been very instructive for me.
00:46:11.599 --> 00:46:13.679
So I appreciate your time today.
00:46:13.679 --> 00:46:15.039
Thank you so much for meeting with us.
00:46:15.280 --> 00:46:17.039
Well, I I appreciate the opportunity.
00:46:17.039 --> 00:46:17.599
Absolutely.
00:46:17.599 --> 00:46:23.519
This has been a great conversation, and uh it's uh something I would never tire of talking about.
00:46:24.320 --> 00:46:24.960
That's wonderful.
00:46:24.960 --> 00:46:31.440
Yeah, I can tell you're passionate about it, and it's uh yeah, you've got the spark and it's it's interesting to listen to.
00:46:31.440 --> 00:46:33.280
So yeah, thank you so much.
00:46:33.280 --> 00:46:37.599
Now, if if you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving us a review.
00:46:37.599 --> 00:46:43.039
And uh you can also use links in the description to reach out to us, give us feedback, things like that.
00:46:43.039 --> 00:46:45.679
But until next time, we'll see you on the path.