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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get to the heart of the issues that matter to you. Today, we are talking about the elections because it is Election Day.
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Speaker 2: I hope everyone has gone out.
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Speaker 1: To vote because, look, this could be a tough election cycle for Republicans, but we don't know how tough, right? There's been a lot of doom and gloom in the media, but we've seen a lot of polling misses, particularly in states like Iowa. You go back to 2024, the Des Moines Register, which is supposed to be the gold standard of polls. got the presidential election wrong by 16 points. You can go back to 2020 when there was a tough Senate race in Iowa. Joni Ernst in the polls, it looked like the race was in the margin of error. She went on to win it by 6.6 points. So will that happen this election cycle?
00:00:51
Speaker 2: We don't know.
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Speaker 1: We know that pollsters have been wrong, but we also know that a midterm election for the party in charge tends to be a tough election. Since World War II and all but two midterm elections, the party in charge has lost an average of 26 House seats and around three to four Senate seats. But given all that, we don't know what's going to happen. So I'm going to have my friend Matt Whitlock on the show. He is a senior vice president with CRC Advisors. He is also the host of the 10-Minute Drill. He has worked in politics for a very long time.
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Speaker 2: I trust his judgment.
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Speaker 1: So we're going to lean on him, see what his gut's telling him. What does he think is going to happen tonight? And also, what's the impact of that? What does it mean if Democrats take back the House and the Senate? What does it mean for 2028 with the presidential election? We're going to dig into all of it, and there's a lot to dig into. So stay tuned for Matt Whitlock. Well, Matt, it's great to have you on the show. I know that you are a father, but you recently, you and your wife just had a newborn. So.
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Speaker 2: You guys are, you're probably very tired.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, having a baby in October of an election year is not something that I would recommend to anybody who's got planning capabilities on that front, but it's still been a wonderful part of the journey.
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Speaker 4: Thank you for that.
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Speaker 2: And then you have, how many, you have two others or what's the.
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Speaker 4: Two others, two others.
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Speaker 3: We got two boys, a four-year-old boy, a two-year-old boy, and now a almost month old little girl.
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Speaker 2: Oh, she will be well protected then.
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Speaker 4: She will be, she will be, she already is. Yeah.
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Speaker 2: Oh, precious. Well, I appreciate you joining us given those circumstances.
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Speaker 4: Absolutely. Absolutely.
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Speaker 3: So excited to get to catch up with you on this crazy historic day.
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Speaker 1: I know. And that's the thing is it's trying to figure out what will.
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Speaker 2: Happen tonight and also what does it all mean? I mean, I think we know.
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Speaker 1: Just based off of history that the party in charge in a midterm election is You typically lose House seats, probably Senate as well. We know that Democrats, at least looking at the Senate, they're defending more Senate seats that are Republicans are defending more Senate seats than Democrats. And then you have tiny margins in both the House and the Senate. So like giving all of that, we know we're going to lose seats. It's just the question is how much and how tough of a night is it going to be? What's your gut telling you? How are you feeling about tonight's election? as people are heading out to the polls.
00:03:17
Speaker 3: So I think that there's a lot of things going on right now that make this cycle really interesting. I think that there's some components that lend towards a sort of 2006 wave, which is really just things like the president's approval rating, the fact that we're in a war very similar to what we were in 2006. But there's also some really big differences that I think trend away from this being that kind of wave tsunami environment that a lot of media is kind of suggesting and pointing towards. The fact that Democrats are historically unpopular, they are 25 points less popular than they were in 2006.
00:03:54
Speaker 4: And they're.
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Speaker 3: Almost 10 points less popular than they were in 2018. 2018, I think, could end up being the closer model because it's described as a wave year because Democrats did win 45 House seats. But somehow at the same time, we won three Senate seats. And so it just goes to show that the way that environment overall can impact congressional races, you know, in the House and Senate is It's so different than it used to be because every state is its own media market, its own kind of ecosystem of politics that can be so different, which is why we're looking at a situation where we could win potentially in a state– pretty ruby red states like Kansas and Texas. It's just really based on individual candidates and how campaigns are run to try and turn out the correct voters. And so I am in a, I don't think I would say optimistic. I think I'm basically making peace with the fact that we're going to take some really tough and unfortunate losses. And I think there's also, you always expect take losses in the midterm year after your party takes power, particularly if they take power of the White House, House, and Senate. It's historically been the tradition for almost 100 years, but that just always happens. But are there losses that could have been more preventable? And that's where I think things get really interesting. I think that, for example, there's a few races that we should be significantly more ahead in, but our candidates in some cases have not really engaged until fairly late in the game.
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Speaker 4: Kansas being one of the biggest examples there.
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Speaker 3: I think South Carolina is another example, but it's a little bit of a different apples and oranges because Darlene Graham, the Republican incumbent there, really was just appointed to the seat pretty recently after her brother Lindsey tragically passed away. And she has had challenges sort of getting up to speed. I think it's tough to become a senator overnight under any circumstances, but to become a senator in an election cycle, especially one where the Democrat Annie Andrews has a ton of out of state money because she's been a trans activist and abortion activist and a gun rights activist, which is like the perfect storm of left wing outside money interests. You know, you have a tough fight. And so, again, I think she'll end up pulling that race out. But the president did have to spend some of his time in the final week campaigning there. Republicans have had to spend money that they would have liked to use in other places to shore up. And so there'll be a lot of lessons learned from this about candidate selection, primaries, things like that that could have kept the overall margins in this, I think, a little bit closer.
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Speaker 1: So would you read that then as candidate quality concerns or because it is interesting to have a world where Republicans could win Maine, could potentially win Michigan? I think Kansas is going to end up being OK just because there are so many more Republicans. and Democrats. And initially I was feeling like Texas, they would pull it off. But there's a lot of people I've been talking to have been making me nervous about it. Is it candidate quality or like what's, you know, I mean, obviously midterms are a time when voters sort of exercise their frustrations on the electorate.
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Speaker 2: Is it like a pox on everyone's house?
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Speaker 4: There's definitely that. I would say that's a really smart point.
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Speaker 3: I think there's a pox on everybody's house that you could say is, you know, across the board, every Republican is taking responsibility. a three to five point hit just on the environment overall as a Republican and being the party in power. So I think across the board, everyone has that. But there are places where there's an even bigger hit because, for example, you know, when you look at Texas, and Paxton has unique challenges because of his own past history and record. Fox has had interesting direct-to-camera interviews with voters who have said, I'm concerned about corruption. I'm concerned about this and that around Ken Paxton's record history character. And he's President Trump's choice. And so that's part of the reason that President Trump rolled up his sleeves, went back to Texas so many times. That's part of why John Thune and the Senate Leadership Fund have helped direct almost $ 300 million just to Texas to keep Ken Paxton competitive. But then you have a question of if it was not Paxton, would less money be required to keep that state competitive? There's going to be a lot of handicapping about issues like that over the next few days. So I do think state by state, it's different. Roger Marshall, for example, wasn't President Trump's choice.
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Speaker 4: He is the incumbent. He's been a senator for six years.
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Speaker 3: But I think he also is looking at the fact that Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in a very long time and thought, I'm pretty safe here. But then Chuck Schumer recruited a lifelong far-left Democrat to run as an independent. This Adam Hamilton gave him probably $ 20 million in a state like Kansas that didn't have the same kind of money on the airwaves and other places. And suddenly you've got a really competitive race. So it's a mix of candidate quality in some places, Republican incumbents kind of resting on their laurels in some places, and then.
00:08:57
Speaker 4: Just overall a really tough environment.
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Speaker 3: But again, despite all that, I think it's important to note there's still a chance that Republicans keep a majority despite all those things. And I think that really is a testament to the candidate quality of a few of our incumbents and a few of our candidates. I think, for example, Susan Collins is a juggernaut. And I think her winning Maine, which I believe that she will do, will really impact the Democrats' math in trying to win their majority. I think Ashley Hinson in Iowa is is one of our best candidates we've seen in a long time. I expect her to win in Iowa, and that's one that Democrats had thought they had. And a lot of polling, even like the New York Times crazy polls yesterday show that one, you know, cleanly for Democrats.
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Speaker 4: I think that's going to end up being wrong. But also you look at Mike Rogers.
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Speaker 3: Mike Rogers is a very, very good, strong, solid candidate in Michigan. A weaker candidate like some that we've seen in certain states in the past wouldn't even make this competitive.
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Speaker 4: And so Chuck Schumer's had to spend about $ 50.
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Speaker 3: Million of their limited Democrat money in Michigan. And so we do have candidate quality that cuts both ways with some that are really good.
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Speaker 4: That are going to overperform, but a few that are not.
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Speaker 3: That are not as sort of prepared for the moment that I think we would have loved to not have to spend as much money in so that we could have, for example, put money into supporting, you know, Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota, who on paper is one of the best candidates we have this cycle. Minnesota is a perfect storm of every left-wing vulnerability from, you fraud to lefty overreach to Tim Waltz being a huge weirdo. But we haven't had the resources to do that because of some of the other places we're spending.
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Speaker 2: Yeah.
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Speaker 1: And it's interesting, too, because, you know, and it's also trying to figure out if the polling is accurate, because you look at Iowa, for instance, and we've had some big misses there, you know, obviously. 2024, with the Des Moines Register poll, got the race rung by 16 points. Or even going back to 2020, there was a really competitive Senate race when Joni Arntz won. And heading into Election Day, that race was, you know, within the margin of error in polling.
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Speaker 2: And then she ended up winning by 6.6 points. So, yeah. And for the people who haven't voted yet.
00:11:01
Speaker 1: Or like they're experiencing apathy and like I get the frustration with Washington, D.C., it is a very frustrating place. And it almost feels like nothing gets done regardless who you elect. But the challenge is the Senate is hard to get back. And, you know, we're talking about six year cycles. And so if we were to lose the Senate. That's problematic, particularly if Democrats are to win the presidency in 2028 and they have the House and the Senate. That's when things can get dangerous.
00:11:35
Speaker 4: That's exactly right.
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Speaker 3: And one challenge that Republicans are looking at is the fact that, to your point, this map, this 2026 map of which Republican seats are up right now, is the map we're supposed to do very good in because these are predominantly red states or sort of purplish red states where we usually like to run up the score so that when we have future cycles that are primarily Republicans defending really tough bluish purple seats, you know, we can take a loss or two and still be competitive. And so, again, I think that, you know, there are some out there saying we won't have another good chance to win back a sizable majority until this same cycle comes up in 2032. And so that's a huge challenge. Now, of course, that's not always true and everything changes. If Democrats are as bad as they were ahead of 2024, we can compete just about anywhere the same way that Democrats are right now. But I think it's really important to, you know, remember that how these cycles work. Politics is a pendulum and, you know, Democrats got thrown out just in 2024, even in states like Ohio. Sherrod Brown was thrown out in 2024 because he voted for the unpopular Biden agenda. Now he is, again, running for Ohio Senate in the other seat, the one that he didn't lose. This is the former J.D. Vance Senate seat. And he's in decent shape just because of the environment. And so, you know, you have to kind of keep in mind that it is tough to get another cycle that should be this favorable to Republicans. But the environment is just putting us in such a tough spot.
00:13:08
Speaker 1: And I mean, like if Democrats win back the House and the Senate, I mean, like we're just going to see it's going to be absolute dysfunction in Washington, D.C. We're just going to see investigations after investigations. I mean, that's essentially what the next two years are going to look like.
00:13:23
Speaker 4: Yep. No, I think that's right.
00:13:26
Speaker 3: And I also think, to me, as kind of a perpetual optimist, even if we have a rough night tonight, Democrats are moving so far left. And I also think there's a universe where if Democrats, depending on the size of their majority, the DSA wing of the Democrats is going to essentially be in control because they will have enough members to veto anything Hakeem Jeffries tries to do, any funding deal, any bill to keep the government open. And that will give Republicans a lot of opportunity ahead of 2028 to start shaping the conversation of these are the radicals that have taken over the Democrat Party. Honestly, I think the Haley Stevens fallout in Michigan of being attacked mercilessly for simply asking for Abdullah Syed to condemn anti-Semitism. This is their civil war of the next two years. And the fact that Democrat leadership across the board sided with Abdul tells you this is the direction their party is going. It's only going to get more radical. And there are genuine, huge national security concerns that come with embracing these kind of radicals the way that they are right now. And so Republicans will see opportunities to pivot, to go back on offense very quickly because of the makeup of the Democrats that are going to be coming into power.
00:14:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't realize even just looking at the Progressive Caucus, how large it is in Congress.
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Speaker 2: Obviously, that's separate from the DSA.
00:14:49
Speaker 1: But point being is that this very left wing part of the party is growing. And so, you know, we've seen how even like the Freedom Caucus, which I've been very supportive of in certain instances, but. you know, even just ousting John Banner as Speaker previously or, like, making Kevin McCarthy really work for it in, I think, 15 rounds or whatever it was to become Speaker initially and then ousting him, you know? And so it's like, if you have a small group that can vote as a bloc and that could create a lot of problems for Hakeem Jeffries, you know, if he becomes Speaker and trying to corral his party and to try to keep everyone together, I do worry, though, Matt, you know, when heading into 2028, if we don't leave the economy better off than when President Trump took office, that that does create a scenario that's ripe for like an AOC.
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Speaker 4: Yeah.
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Speaker 2: You know, Democrat primary.
00:15:47
Speaker 1: And I actually do think that someone like that could win a general election. depending on what the economy is and depending on what happens with this war in Iran.
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Speaker 4: That's exactly right.
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Speaker 3: And I think that people are fooling themselves if they think someone like AOC could never get elected because Extreme candidates rise to power when voter malaise or frustration reaches the highest levels. And that's what we're seeing right now. I mean, in 2018, when Democrats took back the House, it was on the backs of a group of really radical progressives. That's when AOC came to power. That's when the squad came in. And they have shaped the direction of the Democrat Party ever since. And if we do not get a hold on some of these things, I think you're absolutely right. They're only going to get more empowered and more emboldened. And this rising group of Gen Z voters and young millennials are saying, wait a second, she doesn't sound that crazy. I don't really care how smart she is.
00:16:45
Speaker 4: I need somebody to shake up what is failing us in Washington.
00:16:48
Speaker 3: So the two things that I will watch the most closely between 2026 and 2028 is First off, you know, we just got a really good GDP report. There are a lot of extremely positive economic indicators. The problem is they are not the things that you immediately feel in your gas bill or your grocery bill or at the tank.
00:17:07
Speaker 4: And so I think that, you know, they have a tail to them.
00:17:09
Speaker 3: And that's part of the reason that Republicans have had a tougher go of saying, pitching the current economy to voters because it takes time for things like a good GDP number to impact all the things they're feeling in terms of cost day to day. So costs overall, I think if things keep going the direction they are right now, will come down. The unfortunate thing is just going to be it'll be after voters have sort of made their decision. And some people will vote to give the keys back to the people that created the mess in the first place just because of, you know, some understandable impatience. But the other question is going to be the Iran war.
00:17:44
Speaker 4: Now, the Iran war.
00:17:45
Speaker 3: Is fascinating because we're already seeing this shape some of the Republican primary jostling, where you're seeing a lot of Vance supporters online try and attack people like Ted Cruz and others, for supporting President Trump and saying this can be a really, really short war. And part of that, I think, is because they think that Vice President Vance might get some of the blowback for the war because he was serving as vice president. But if they can sort of paint it as a operation of the neocons, you know, then maybe he can escape that and sort of keep his hands clean of that. What I think is going to be interesting is to see how the coverage and commentary about the Iran war and this today midterm election, and if there's going to be finger pointing about how this got worse than it needed to be. Because I think the way that President Trump initially pitched this was a very short surgical operation that could be successful, could take the head off of the IRGC, take out the nuclear capability, and then, you know, opened the shade of Hormuz and changed things very quickly. But over the summer, we sort of got into a posture of trying to have peace talks that Iran never had a ton of interest in. And we sort of froze ourselves in this posture of maximum pain, where gas prices continued to increase. The entire world was kind of frozen watching what we were doing. President Trump was saying the Strait of Hormuz is open, but we were still seeing Iran essentially able to harass ships and keep the prices of oil going up. Will there be a conversation about the vice president's role in slowing things down, focusing on that MOU and peace talks that get him some of the blame for how painful this ended up being?
00:19:29
Speaker 4: I don't know.
00:19:29
Speaker 3: I think that there's probably going to be more than anything just to focus on President Trump and his role But that will be a huge part of the conversation that shapes 2028 and how quickly we get the Iran situation dealt with and over will impact what, you know, both parties look like going into the actual 2028 election.
00:19:50
Speaker 1: Well, and also, you know, it's interesting because Trump announced that we're going to be ending the roughly $ 4 billion in annual aid to Israel by the end of the year. So I think, obviously, that is a direct impact of the war on Iran.
00:20:03
Speaker 2: I also think....
00:20:05
Speaker 1: You know, the way that we leave it, is it a win or is it considered a loss?
00:20:11
Speaker 2: Right.
00:20:11
Speaker 1: Because then that, I think, will also impact and shape opinions on it.
00:20:16
Speaker 4: A hundred percent.
00:20:18
Speaker 1: You know, I mean, at this point, I just, you know, I don't think that there is winning in Iran. You know, it's just Iran is very clearly set up to take these kinds of hits and survive. And again, you know, they don't have to necessarily like defeat us.
00:20:33
Speaker 2: They just have to hang on.
00:20:35
Speaker 3: And make it as painful as possible. You're exactly right. And I think they've found a decent way to do that, to keep up the harassment. I mean, there was reports, I think Reuters had a report about a month ago that, you know, that communication was intercepted from top IRGC officials who basically just have been talking about plans to impact our election here with small harassment measures that will keep gas prices going up.
00:20:56
Speaker 4: That's exactly what's happened. And so I think you're right.
00:20:58
Speaker 3: What winning looks like is hard to understand, but we know what the worst version of losing could look like. And so I think that's going to be the president's goal is to sort of get us out with as minimal damage as possible and try to keep it from feeling like Afghanistan and President Biden's withdrawal from Kabul and things like that.
00:21:15
Speaker 4: I don't think it will be like that at all.
00:21:16
Speaker 3: I think that there's a lot more sort of, you know, steadiness and stability that we can help put in the region.
00:21:22
Speaker 4: It's just a question of what that ends up looking like.
00:21:24
Speaker 1: Yeah. And then before we go, I mean, I do think there is a chance, and I've been saying this, I mean, I think the House is just hard because, you know, historically, outside of, I think, two elections since World War II, the party in charge loses like 26 seats in the House. So it's like, I do think that, and given that there's like, they just have the Democrats just have to pick up three. I think the House is going to be extremely hard to hang on to. But I do think there's a chance to like barely hang on to the Senate. What does a good night to you look like for Republican?
00:21:54
Speaker 2: And then we'll go.
00:21:56
Speaker 4: So I have.
00:21:57
Speaker 3: Basically four scenarios that I think all have like the equal potential of taking place. My best case scenario for Republicans is the scenario where we keep 53 seats.
00:22:06
Speaker 4: That I think is.
00:22:08
Speaker 3: experts or people that add math to this would say there's probably only like a 3% to 5% chance of that happening. I kind of feel like there's closer to like a 20%, 25% chance of that happening because of the states we're competing in. If there's a minimal polling correction in states like Ohio State, Kansas, Maine, Michigan.
00:22:26
Speaker 4: In a lot of those states, I think we win.
00:22:28
Speaker 3: If there's a correction in polling that looks anything like the polling correction required for every cycle of the last 20 years, we're in pretty good shape. And so that's why I don't like the doom and gloomers who are saying there's no chance. It does all come out literally to election day turnout, which is scary because there's places where it's going to rain today.
00:22:46
Speaker 4: Could that affect things? Who knows? But I also think there's a 50-50.
00:22:50
Speaker 3: Map for Republicans that would still be seen as a win because we would keep a majority, we would lose seats that I would have liked us to win, but with the environment, keeping a 50-50 Senate, I think would feel like a pretty big win. I think a lot of people are pointing to a much gloomier outlook, but for me, I could see a 50% chance of at least keeping the Senate, whether it's a 50-50 majority or a 53-47 majority. That is me being like very optimistic, but the scenarios that could lend themselves to that are very much possible.
00:23:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then holding onto the Senate would be huge. You know, one, I mean, thankfully we have President Trump, so he can like veto, you know, they're not gonna have.
00:23:30
Speaker 2: A veto-proof majority regardless.
00:23:31
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:23:33
Speaker 1: Secondly, just controlling the Senate helps mitigate some of the chaos coming from the House.
00:23:38
Speaker 2: So 100 percent.
00:23:39
Speaker 4: And judges. I think judges are going to be one of the most important parts of this.
00:23:42
Speaker 2: That's that's actually a huge point.
00:23:44
Speaker 1: You know, it's like regardless, we're heading into like two years of, you know, a lot of dysfunction and chaos. But it's beating the damage that the left can do, which is why it is important. to hang on to these Senate races. Matt Whitlock, always good to catch up with my friend. Congratulations on your baby girl.
00:24:02
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Thank you for having me. Always fun to catch up with you. You have such a great show.
00:24:07
Speaker 2: That was Matt Whitlock.
00:24:08
Speaker 1: He is a senior vice president with CRC Advisors and the host of 10 Minute Drill.
00:24:13
Speaker 2: Appreciate him for coming on the show.
00:24:14
Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week. I also want to thank John Cascio, my producer, for putting the show together.
00:24:22
Speaker 2: Until next time.
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get to the heart of the issues that matter to you. Today, we are talking about the elections because it is Election Day.
00:00:14
Speaker 2: I hope everyone has gone out.
00:00:16
Speaker 1: To vote because, look, this could be a tough election cycle for Republicans, but we don't know how tough, right? There's been a lot of doom and gloom in the media, but we've seen a lot of polling misses, particularly in states like Iowa. You go back to 2024, the Des Moines Register, which is supposed to be the gold standard of polls. got the presidential election wrong by 16 points. You can go back to 2020 when there was a tough Senate race in Iowa. Joni Ernst in the polls, it looked like the race was in the margin of error. She went on to win it by 6.6 points. So will that happen this election cycle?
00:00:51
Speaker 2: We don't know.
00:00:53
Speaker 1: We know that pollsters have been wrong, but we also know that a midterm election for the party in charge tends to be a tough election. Since World War II and all but two midterm elections, the party in charge has lost an average of 26 House seats and around three to four Senate seats. But given all that, we don't know what's going to happen. So I'm going to have my friend Matt Whitlock on the show. He is a senior vice president with CRC Advisors. He is also the host of the 10-Minute Drill. He has worked in politics for a very long time.
00:01:20
Speaker 2: I trust his judgment.
00:01:21
Speaker 1: So we're going to lean on him, see what his gut's telling him. What does he think is going to happen tonight? And also, what's the impact of that? What does it mean if Democrats take back the House and the Senate? What does it mean for 2028 with the presidential election? We're going to dig into all of it, and there's a lot to dig into. So stay tuned for Matt Whitlock. Well, Matt, it's great to have you on the show. I know that you are a father, but you recently, you and your wife just had a newborn. So.
00:01:50
Speaker 2: You guys are, you're probably very tired.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, having a baby in October of an election year is not something that I would recommend to anybody who's got planning capabilities on that front, but it's still been a wonderful part of the journey.
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Speaker 4: Thank you for that.
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Speaker 2: And then you have, how many, you have two others or what's the.
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Speaker 4: Two others, two others.
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Speaker 3: We got two boys, a four-year-old boy, a two-year-old boy, and now a almost month old little girl.
00:02:16
Speaker 2: Oh, she will be well protected then.
00:02:18
Speaker 4: She will be, she will be, she already is. Yeah.
00:02:21
Speaker 2: Oh, precious. Well, I appreciate you joining us given those circumstances.
00:02:25
Speaker 4: Absolutely. Absolutely.
00:02:26
Speaker 3: So excited to get to catch up with you on this crazy historic day.
00:02:29
Speaker 1: I know. And that's the thing is it's trying to figure out what will.
00:02:36
Speaker 2: Happen tonight and also what does it all mean? I mean, I think we know.
00:02:40
Speaker 1: Just based off of history that the party in charge in a midterm election is You typically lose House seats, probably Senate as well. We know that Democrats, at least looking at the Senate, they're defending more Senate seats that are Republicans are defending more Senate seats than Democrats. And then you have tiny margins in both the House and the Senate. So like giving all of that, we know we're going to lose seats. It's just the question is how much and how tough of a night is it going to be? What's your gut telling you? How are you feeling about tonight's election? as people are heading out to the polls.
00:03:17
Speaker 3: So I think that there's a lot of things going on right now that make this cycle really interesting. I think that there's some components that lend towards a sort of 2006 wave, which is really just things like the president's approval rating, the fact that we're in a war very similar to what we were in 2006. But there's also some really big differences that I think trend away from this being that kind of wave tsunami environment that a lot of media is kind of suggesting and pointing towards. The fact that Democrats are historically unpopular, they are 25 points less popular than they were in 2006.
00:03:54
Speaker 4: And they're.
00:03:56
Speaker 3: Almost 10 points less popular than they were in 2018. 2018, I think, could end up being the closer model because it's described as a wave year because Democrats did win 45 House seats. But somehow at the same time, we won three Senate seats. And so it just goes to show that the way that environment overall can impact congressional races, you know, in the House and Senate is It's so different than it used to be because every state is its own media market, its own kind of ecosystem of politics that can be so different, which is why we're looking at a situation where we could win potentially in a state– pretty ruby red states like Kansas and Texas. It's just really based on individual candidates and how campaigns are run to try and turn out the correct voters. And so I am in a, I don't think I would say optimistic. I think I'm basically making peace with the fact that we're going to take some really tough and unfortunate losses. And I think there's also, you always expect take losses in the midterm year after your party takes power, particularly if they take power of the White House, House, and Senate. It's historically been the tradition for almost 100 years, but that just always happens. But are there losses that could have been more preventable? And that's where I think things get really interesting. I think that, for example, there's a few races that we should be significantly more ahead in, but our candidates in some cases have not really engaged until fairly late in the game.
00:05:29
Speaker 4: Kansas being one of the biggest examples there.
00:05:32
Speaker 3: I think South Carolina is another example, but it's a little bit of a different apples and oranges because Darlene Graham, the Republican incumbent there, really was just appointed to the seat pretty recently after her brother Lindsey tragically passed away. And she has had challenges sort of getting up to speed. I think it's tough to become a senator overnight under any circumstances, but to become a senator in an election cycle, especially one where the Democrat Annie Andrews has a ton of out of state money because she's been a trans activist and abortion activist and a gun rights activist, which is like the perfect storm of left wing outside money interests. You know, you have a tough fight. And so, again, I think she'll end up pulling that race out. But the president did have to spend some of his time in the final week campaigning there. Republicans have had to spend money that they would have liked to use in other places to shore up. And so there'll be a lot of lessons learned from this about candidate selection, primaries, things like that that could have kept the overall margins in this, I think, a little bit closer.
00:06:30
Speaker 1: So would you read that then as candidate quality concerns or because it is interesting to have a world where Republicans could win Maine, could potentially win Michigan? I think Kansas is going to end up being OK just because there are so many more Republicans. and Democrats. And initially I was feeling like Texas, they would pull it off. But there's a lot of people I've been talking to have been making me nervous about it. Is it candidate quality or like what's, you know, I mean, obviously midterms are a time when voters sort of exercise their frustrations on the electorate.
00:07:05
Speaker 2: Is it like a pox on everyone's house?
00:07:07
Speaker 4: There's definitely that. I would say that's a really smart point.
00:07:10
Speaker 3: I think there's a pox on everybody's house that you could say is, you know, across the board, every Republican is taking responsibility. a three to five point hit just on the environment overall as a Republican and being the party in power. So I think across the board, everyone has that. But there are places where there's an even bigger hit because, for example, you know, when you look at Texas, and Paxton has unique challenges because of his own past history and record. Fox has had interesting direct-to-camera interviews with voters who have said, I'm concerned about corruption. I'm concerned about this and that around Ken Paxton's record history character. And he's President Trump's choice. And so that's part of the reason that President Trump rolled up his sleeves, went back to Texas so many times. That's part of why John Thune and the Senate Leadership Fund have helped direct almost $ 300 million just to Texas to keep Ken Paxton competitive. But then you have a question of if it was not Paxton, would less money be required to keep that state competitive? There's going to be a lot of handicapping about issues like that over the next few days. So I do think state by state, it's different. Roger Marshall, for example, wasn't President Trump's choice.
00:08:22
Speaker 4: He is the incumbent. He's been a senator for six years.
00:08:25
Speaker 3: But I think he also is looking at the fact that Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in a very long time and thought, I'm pretty safe here. But then Chuck Schumer recruited a lifelong far-left Democrat to run as an independent. This Adam Hamilton gave him probably $ 20 million in a state like Kansas that didn't have the same kind of money on the airwaves and other places. And suddenly you've got a really competitive race. So it's a mix of candidate quality in some places, Republican incumbents kind of resting on their laurels in some places, and then.
00:08:57
Speaker 4: Just overall a really tough environment.
00:08:59
Speaker 3: But again, despite all that, I think it's important to note there's still a chance that Republicans keep a majority despite all those things. And I think that really is a testament to the candidate quality of a few of our incumbents and a few of our candidates. I think, for example, Susan Collins is a juggernaut. And I think her winning Maine, which I believe that she will do, will really impact the Democrats' math in trying to win their majority. I think Ashley Hinson in Iowa is is one of our best candidates we've seen in a long time. I expect her to win in Iowa, and that's one that Democrats had thought they had. And a lot of polling, even like the New York Times crazy polls yesterday show that one, you know, cleanly for Democrats.
00:09:35
Speaker 4: I think that's going to end up being wrong. But also you look at Mike Rogers.
00:09:38
Speaker 3: Mike Rogers is a very, very good, strong, solid candidate in Michigan. A weaker candidate like some that we've seen in certain states in the past wouldn't even make this competitive.
00:09:48
Speaker 4: And so Chuck Schumer's had to spend about $ 50.
00:09:50
Speaker 3: Million of their limited Democrat money in Michigan. And so we do have candidate quality that cuts both ways with some that are really good.
00:09:58
Speaker 4: That are going to overperform, but a few that are not.
00:10:00
Speaker 3: That are not as sort of prepared for the moment that I think we would have loved to not have to spend as much money in so that we could have, for example, put money into supporting, you know, Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota, who on paper is one of the best candidates we have this cycle. Minnesota is a perfect storm of every left-wing vulnerability from, you fraud to lefty overreach to Tim Waltz being a huge weirdo. But we haven't had the resources to do that because of some of the other places we're spending.
00:10:27
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:10:29
Speaker 1: And it's interesting, too, because, you know, and it's also trying to figure out if the polling is accurate, because you look at Iowa, for instance, and we've had some big misses there, you know, obviously. 2024, with the Des Moines Register poll, got the race rung by 16 points. Or even going back to 2020, there was a really competitive Senate race when Joni Arntz won. And heading into Election Day, that race was, you know, within the margin of error in polling.
00:10:54
Speaker 2: And then she ended up winning by 6.6 points. So, yeah. And for the people who haven't voted yet.
00:11:01
Speaker 1: Or like they're experiencing apathy and like I get the frustration with Washington, D.C., it is a very frustrating place. And it almost feels like nothing gets done regardless who you elect. But the challenge is the Senate is hard to get back. And, you know, we're talking about six year cycles. And so if we were to lose the Senate. That's problematic, particularly if Democrats are to win the presidency in 2028 and they have the House and the Senate. That's when things can get dangerous.
00:11:35
Speaker 4: That's exactly right.
00:11:36
Speaker 3: And one challenge that Republicans are looking at is the fact that, to your point, this map, this 2026 map of which Republican seats are up right now, is the map we're supposed to do very good in because these are predominantly red states or sort of purplish red states where we usually like to run up the score so that when we have future cycles that are primarily Republicans defending really tough bluish purple seats, you know, we can take a loss or two and still be competitive. And so, again, I think that, you know, there are some out there saying we won't have another good chance to win back a sizable majority until this same cycle comes up in 2032. And so that's a huge challenge. Now, of course, that's not always true and everything changes. If Democrats are as bad as they were ahead of 2024, we can compete just about anywhere the same way that Democrats are right now. But I think it's really important to, you know, remember that how these cycles work. Politics is a pendulum and, you know, Democrats got thrown out just in 2024, even in states like Ohio. Sherrod Brown was thrown out in 2024 because he voted for the unpopular Biden agenda. Now he is, again, running for Ohio Senate in the other seat, the one that he didn't lose. This is the former J.D. Vance Senate seat. And he's in decent shape just because of the environment. And so, you know, you have to kind of keep in mind that it is tough to get another cycle that should be this favorable to Republicans. But the environment is just putting us in such a tough spot.
00:13:08
Speaker 1: And I mean, like if Democrats win back the House and the Senate, I mean, like we're just going to see it's going to be absolute dysfunction in Washington, D.C. We're just going to see investigations after investigations. I mean, that's essentially what the next two years are going to look like.
00:13:23
Speaker 4: Yep. No, I think that's right.
00:13:26
Speaker 3: And I also think, to me, as kind of a perpetual optimist, even if we have a rough night tonight, Democrats are moving so far left. And I also think there's a universe where if Democrats, depending on the size of their majority, the DSA wing of the Democrats is going to essentially be in control because they will have enough members to veto anything Hakeem Jeffries tries to do, any funding deal, any bill to keep the government open. And that will give Republicans a lot of opportunity ahead of 2028 to start shaping the conversation of these are the radicals that have taken over the Democrat Party. Honestly, I think the Haley Stevens fallout in Michigan of being attacked mercilessly for simply asking for Abdullah Syed to condemn anti-Semitism. This is their civil war of the next two years. And the fact that Democrat leadership across the board sided with Abdul tells you this is the direction their party is going. It's only going to get more radical. And there are genuine, huge national security concerns that come with embracing these kind of radicals the way that they are right now. And so Republicans will see opportunities to pivot, to go back on offense very quickly because of the makeup of the Democrats that are going to be coming into power.
00:14:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't realize even just looking at the Progressive Caucus, how large it is in Congress.
00:14:47
Speaker 2: Obviously, that's separate from the DSA.
00:14:49
Speaker 1: But point being is that this very left wing part of the party is growing. And so, you know, we've seen how even like the Freedom Caucus, which I've been very supportive of in certain instances, but. you know, even just ousting John Banner as Speaker previously or, like, making Kevin McCarthy really work for it in, I think, 15 rounds or whatever it was to become Speaker initially and then ousting him, you know? And so it's like, if you have a small group that can vote as a bloc and that could create a lot of problems for Hakeem Jeffries, you know, if he becomes Speaker and trying to corral his party and to try to keep everyone together, I do worry, though, Matt, you know, when heading into 2028, if we don't leave the economy better off than when President Trump took office, that that does create a scenario that's ripe for like an AOC.
00:15:44
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:15:46
Speaker 2: You know, Democrat primary.
00:15:47
Speaker 1: And I actually do think that someone like that could win a general election. depending on what the economy is and depending on what happens with this war in Iran.
00:15:58
Speaker 4: That's exactly right.
00:15:59
Speaker 3: And I think that people are fooling themselves if they think someone like AOC could never get elected because Extreme candidates rise to power when voter malaise or frustration reaches the highest levels. And that's what we're seeing right now. I mean, in 2018, when Democrats took back the House, it was on the backs of a group of really radical progressives. That's when AOC came to power. That's when the squad came in. And they have shaped the direction of the Democrat Party ever since. And if we do not get a hold on some of these things, I think you're absolutely right. They're only going to get more empowered and more emboldened. And this rising group of Gen Z voters and young millennials are saying, wait a second, she doesn't sound that crazy. I don't really care how smart she is.
00:16:45
Speaker 4: I need somebody to shake up what is failing us in Washington.
00:16:48
Speaker 3: So the two things that I will watch the most closely between 2026 and 2028 is First off, you know, we just got a really good GDP report. There are a lot of extremely positive economic indicators. The problem is they are not the things that you immediately feel in your gas bill or your grocery bill or at the tank.
00:17:07
Speaker 4: And so I think that, you know, they have a tail to them.
00:17:09
Speaker 3: And that's part of the reason that Republicans have had a tougher go of saying, pitching the current economy to voters because it takes time for things like a good GDP number to impact all the things they're feeling in terms of cost day to day. So costs overall, I think if things keep going the direction they are right now, will come down. The unfortunate thing is just going to be it'll be after voters have sort of made their decision. And some people will vote to give the keys back to the people that created the mess in the first place just because of, you know, some understandable impatience. But the other question is going to be the Iran war.
00:17:44
Speaker 4: Now, the Iran war.
00:17:45
Speaker 3: Is fascinating because we're already seeing this shape some of the Republican primary jostling, where you're seeing a lot of Vance supporters online try and attack people like Ted Cruz and others, for supporting President Trump and saying this can be a really, really short war. And part of that, I think, is because they think that Vice President Vance might get some of the blowback for the war because he was serving as vice president. But if they can sort of paint it as a operation of the neocons, you know, then maybe he can escape that and sort of keep his hands clean of that. What I think is going to be interesting is to see how the coverage and commentary about the Iran war and this today midterm election, and if there's going to be finger pointing about how this got worse than it needed to be. Because I think the way that President Trump initially pitched this was a very short surgical operation that could be successful, could take the head off of the IRGC, take out the nuclear capability, and then, you know, opened the shade of Hormuz and changed things very quickly. But over the summer, we sort of got into a posture of trying to have peace talks that Iran never had a ton of interest in. And we sort of froze ourselves in this posture of maximum pain, where gas prices continued to increase. The entire world was kind of frozen watching what we were doing. President Trump was saying the Strait of Hormuz is open, but we were still seeing Iran essentially able to harass ships and keep the prices of oil going up. Will there be a conversation about the vice president's role in slowing things down, focusing on that MOU and peace talks that get him some of the blame for how painful this ended up being?
00:19:29
Speaker 4: I don't know.
00:19:29
Speaker 3: I think that there's probably going to be more than anything just to focus on President Trump and his role But that will be a huge part of the conversation that shapes 2028 and how quickly we get the Iran situation dealt with and over will impact what, you know, both parties look like going into the actual 2028 election.
00:19:50
Speaker 1: Well, and also, you know, it's interesting because Trump announced that we're going to be ending the roughly $ 4 billion in annual aid to Israel by the end of the year. So I think, obviously, that is a direct impact of the war on Iran.
00:20:03
Speaker 2: I also think....
00:20:05
Speaker 1: You know, the way that we leave it, is it a win or is it considered a loss?
00:20:11
Speaker 2: Right.
00:20:11
Speaker 1: Because then that, I think, will also impact and shape opinions on it.
00:20:16
Speaker 4: A hundred percent.
00:20:18
Speaker 1: You know, I mean, at this point, I just, you know, I don't think that there is winning in Iran. You know, it's just Iran is very clearly set up to take these kinds of hits and survive. And again, you know, they don't have to necessarily like defeat us.
00:20:33
Speaker 2: They just have to hang on.
00:20:35
Speaker 3: And make it as painful as possible. You're exactly right. And I think they've found a decent way to do that, to keep up the harassment. I mean, there was reports, I think Reuters had a report about a month ago that, you know, that communication was intercepted from top IRGC officials who basically just have been talking about plans to impact our election here with small harassment measures that will keep gas prices going up.
00:20:56
Speaker 4: That's exactly what's happened. And so I think you're right.
00:20:58
Speaker 3: What winning looks like is hard to understand, but we know what the worst version of losing could look like. And so I think that's going to be the president's goal is to sort of get us out with as minimal damage as possible and try to keep it from feeling like Afghanistan and President Biden's withdrawal from Kabul and things like that.
00:21:15
Speaker 4: I don't think it will be like that at all.
00:21:16
Speaker 3: I think that there's a lot more sort of, you know, steadiness and stability that we can help put in the region.
00:21:22
Speaker 4: It's just a question of what that ends up looking like.
00:21:24
Speaker 1: Yeah. And then before we go, I mean, I do think there is a chance, and I've been saying this, I mean, I think the House is just hard because, you know, historically, outside of, I think, two elections since World War II, the party in charge loses like 26 seats in the House. So it's like, I do think that, and given that there's like, they just have the Democrats just have to pick up three. I think the House is going to be extremely hard to hang on to. But I do think there's a chance to like barely hang on to the Senate. What does a good night to you look like for Republican?
00:21:54
Speaker 2: And then we'll go.
00:21:56
Speaker 4: So I have.
00:21:57
Speaker 3: Basically four scenarios that I think all have like the equal potential of taking place. My best case scenario for Republicans is the scenario where we keep 53 seats.
00:22:06
Speaker 4: That I think is.
00:22:08
Speaker 3: experts or people that add math to this would say there's probably only like a 3% to 5% chance of that happening. I kind of feel like there's closer to like a 20%, 25% chance of that happening because of the states we're competing in. If there's a minimal polling correction in states like Ohio State, Kansas, Maine, Michigan.
00:22:26
Speaker 4: In a lot of those states, I think we win.
00:22:28
Speaker 3: If there's a correction in polling that looks anything like the polling correction required for every cycle of the last 20 years, we're in pretty good shape. And so that's why I don't like the doom and gloomers who are saying there's no chance. It does all come out literally to election day turnout, which is scary because there's places where it's going to rain today.
00:22:46
Speaker 4: Could that affect things? Who knows? But I also think there's a 50-50.
00:22:50
Speaker 3: Map for Republicans that would still be seen as a win because we would keep a majority, we would lose seats that I would have liked us to win, but with the environment, keeping a 50-50 Senate, I think would feel like a pretty big win. I think a lot of people are pointing to a much gloomier outlook, but for me, I could see a 50% chance of at least keeping the Senate, whether it's a 50-50 majority or a 53-47 majority. That is me being like very optimistic, but the scenarios that could lend themselves to that are very much possible.
00:23:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then holding onto the Senate would be huge. You know, one, I mean, thankfully we have President Trump, so he can like veto, you know, they're not gonna have.
00:23:30
Speaker 2: A veto-proof majority regardless.
00:23:31
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:23:33
Speaker 1: Secondly, just controlling the Senate helps mitigate some of the chaos coming from the House.
00:23:38
Speaker 2: So 100 percent.
00:23:39
Speaker 4: And judges. I think judges are going to be one of the most important parts of this.
00:23:42
Speaker 2: That's that's actually a huge point.
00:23:44
Speaker 1: You know, it's like regardless, we're heading into like two years of, you know, a lot of dysfunction and chaos. But it's beating the damage that the left can do, which is why it is important. to hang on to these Senate races. Matt Whitlock, always good to catch up with my friend. Congratulations on your baby girl.
00:24:02
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Thank you for having me. Always fun to catch up with you. You have such a great show.
00:24:07
Speaker 2: That was Matt Whitlock.
00:24:08
Speaker 1: He is a senior vice president with CRC Advisors and the host of 10 Minute Drill.
00:24:13
Speaker 2: Appreciate him for coming on the show.
00:24:14
Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week. I also want to thank John Cascio, my producer, for putting the show together.
00:24:22
Speaker 2: Until next time.
