00:00:01
Speaker 1: And he swings!
00:00:02
Speaker 2: Hits it high!
00:00:04
Speaker 1: And deep!
00:00:05
Speaker 2: And gone!
00:00:07
Speaker 3: Still going back! Out of here!
00:00:13
Speaker 2: Welcome to the big leagues!
00:00:15
Speaker 3: Deep to center field.
00:00:17
Speaker 4: And it is gone!
00:00:19
Speaker 1: Wow, his first big league swing is going to be a grand slam home run.
00:00:23
Speaker 4: Swing and drive!
00:00:25
Speaker 3: Mountain right!
00:00:28
Speaker 4: Welcome to the show!
00:00:32
Speaker 3: Welcome back to The Call Up, your go-to podcast on the future stars of Major League Baseball. Jack McMullen, Arm Layton, we are doing the pitching side of the rookie review here. And remember, it's underrated rookie seasons because we don't need to talk to you about Parker Messick. We don't need to get into that. That was for the Just Baseball show throughout a lot of the season. We want to highlight some of the guys that maybe we didn't even really talk about as prospects very much. that ended up getting up to the big leagues and making an impact enough so that, you know, we want to look back at the season and say, okay, clearly this guy's better than we thought he would be or quickly, you know, became this, this new pitcher, but how does he project long-term?
00:01:11
Speaker 1: What is it?
00:01:11
Speaker 2: What do we think he's going to be?
00:01:12
Speaker 3: Ultimately, was this the best that we saw of him or is there even more to be unlocked there? So it's going to be fun. We got plenty of different arms, some relievers mixed in as well, which I think is a little bit easier to, To buy into two gnarly pitchers. Let's go with the starters, though. It's going to be fun to dive in. And I'm very curious, Jack, your thoughts on some of these guys that you saw throw probably a couple of times this year, you know, in person with some some interdivision guys.
00:01:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, man.
00:01:38
Speaker 4: No, I'm really excited.
00:01:39
Speaker 1: And I like the lens of the underrated arms that we're going with here because. You know, these are guys that like we might have mentioned in passing on the Just Baseball show.
00:01:48
Speaker 4: Where it's like, oh, and Zach Thornton's good.
00:01:50
Speaker 1: Like we never really actually dove into why Zach Thornton was good versus a guy like McClain. We totally dove in or Messick. We totally dove in. So excited to chat about guys like that. So might as well just kick it off here.
00:02:03
Speaker 4: First one that we're going to talk about is Parker Messick of the Cleveland Guardians. I'm kidding.
00:02:07
Speaker 1: First one that we're going to talk about is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball that very few people probably had the chance to tune into because it was West Coast and because this team was unfortunately irrelevant for the entirety of the season. Walbert Ureña of the LA Angels. Ureña put together a hell of a year in his rookie campaign. He's 22 years old. He doesn't turn 23 until the end of January at 27. But this guy in 148 innings had a 297 ERA. It was a whip of 1.23. Opponents hit 210 against him, and he rolled ground balls.
00:02:41
Speaker 4: At a 55% clip.
00:02:44
Speaker 1: I made the joke to you when the Angels came to Miami in mid-August. I get why they moved Jose Soriano. They already had a Jose Soriano when he was 22 years old in Walbert, Oranje.
00:02:56
Speaker 4: With the sinker and the changeup, he throws absolute bowling balls. Oranje does.
00:03:02
Speaker 2: Truth and jest, right? I mean, you might not be wrong.
00:03:05
Speaker 3: It's a very similar archetype, and it's a guy that's already getting to that level of production. I always feel weird using the word production on the mound, but I know that it's usable.
00:03:17
Speaker 2: That Soriano is kind of breaking out into.
00:03:20
Speaker 3: Now, is Urania going to be a 297 over 30.
00:03:25
Speaker 2: Starts next year?
00:03:26
Speaker 3: I don't know. That's where just natural variance kicks in, especially for ground ball guys. Like, Urania could be the exact same pitcher next year, and it could be a 3-4 just because just a little bit of batted ball luck, some little things here and there. Regardless, I think the larger conversation is this is a middle rotation pitcher now moving forward, right? Like, do you have any doubts that Urania is going to be a middle rotation arm?
00:03:50
Speaker 4: I have no doubts.
00:03:51
Speaker 1: I think the question then morphs into is he a mid-rotation arm or does he flash front line? Because Soriano, I think, flashes front line.
00:04:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
00:04:01
Speaker 2: And I think that's a difference.
00:04:03
Speaker 3: And I think when you look at Urania, to me, I still see just middle rotation at this point. But reminder, he's 22.
00:04:12
Speaker 2: So can you really rule that out?
00:04:13
Speaker 3: And also like that short, it labels as a sweeper for me in the system I'm looking at right now.
00:04:19
Speaker 2: I'm curious what Savant has. They've got him as a sweeper too.
00:04:23
Speaker 3: It's like a short sweeper that, I mean, that pitch, I really think for a sinker, like a heavy sinker guy that'll buzz the four seam or two and a change up like sinker change up guy to also have the sweeper working glove side.
00:04:36
Speaker 2: To me, that unlocks another notch.
00:04:38
Speaker 3: Like if everything's more arm side and whatever, but you execute it really well, it's really hard to get to that like ace hood. I do feel like when you have that breaking ball working glove side, that can really work right on right as well.
00:04:51
Speaker 2: And so just keep lefties honest here and there.
00:04:53
Speaker 3: They don't kind of lull into the cadence of everything arm side and the four seam or that you could still buzz up at the top.
00:04:58
Speaker 2: He can work all four quadrants.
00:05:00
Speaker 3: And I'm sure as he develops, maybe he adds in a cutter or another pitch that just is another taste breaker. I don't think you can rule that out from a 22 year old. The thing is, is he's going to pitch to contact a good bit. And, you know, that helped him, I think, mitigate what has been a walk rate that's been high in the past. And that walk rate is going to need to continue to drop, right?
00:05:20
Speaker 2: These kinds of pitchers.
00:05:22
Speaker 3: Another example, like If you are a ground ball guy, it doesn't help if you have traffic on. Yes, you could say double play. Generally speaking, it's not going to help. And it was an 11% walk rate this year. So that's probably the number one thing to look at.
00:05:36
Speaker 4: There are two gold standards, I think, at this.
00:05:39
Speaker 1: And they both kind of paint the picture of exactly what you're talking about. I think gold standard number one, who's been doing it for longer with the type of arsenal that Arrhenia has. And it's a different fastball, no doubt. but Gaussman, I think Kevin Gaussman is like the gold standard of fastball split or fastball change. And then occasionally mix in this baby breaking ball and live on the ground.
00:06:04
Speaker 4: Don't allow home runs.
00:06:06
Speaker 1: Gaussman doesn't walk people. He's famous for not allowing homers and not walking guys.
00:06:11
Speaker 4: Like he is the FIP king. The other one obviously is Sanchez.
00:06:14
Speaker 1: Who's going to finish second at Cy Young vote and Christopher Sanchez in Philadelphia and Christopher Sanchez is The reason he's so darn good is he's pinpoint with his sinker and his changeup. You're not asking Ureña to be pinpoint because if he did become pinpoint with 99 and that changeup, we're talking about a Sanchez type of season where you're getting Cy Young votes. We're not asking him to do that, his age 23 season. You're asking him to be more in the strike zone, to not shoot yourself in the foot. And I think that can make a frontline starter. Like, why can't Ureña put up the kind of season that, He just did, frankly, like I was going to say that Detmers did and they create kind of this co-frontline thing.
00:06:56
Speaker 4: But hell, Arrhenia is already in that conversation.
00:06:59
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah.
00:07:00
Speaker 3: And the other one other shout and obviously a lot of things that he has to hone in on to get there. But in terms of just the sinker change up, the copycat nature of it, they're both 90 plus miles per hour with like similar shape. And a lot of times we talk about. sinker change up having big separation. And then a lot of times they can have similar shape and they work, it can work well. It's just, you might not get as much in zone with, but you'll get so much more weak contact, ground balls, et cetera. Sandy Ocontra, like that's an interesting template on the baseline to look at. Sandy, what he does obviously is executes unbelievably well. And there's just added pitches and added pitches. So can Urania add that cutter and even that taste breaking, you know, more, more gyro slider, who knows. But I think just that, that template and that foundation is, With Sandy also being able to buzz the foreseamer here and there, that unlocked another notch for him too that hitters had to respect.
00:07:48
Speaker 2: I'm very eager to see Ureña' s.
00:07:49
Speaker 3: Development because to this point, what we just discussed, it's very clear that there's so much more in there and so much more to be unlocked and things that I think could be tacked on for him as well.
00:08:00
Speaker 1: Entirely different arm that we go to next in Washington, other side of America. Andrew Alvarez, the left-hander for the Washington Nationals, put together a really solid year. 113 innings at a 3-4 ERA. The FIP was at 3.32. Andrew Alvarez is a guy that throws about 92 miles an hour. Opponents hit. 229 against him with a 50% ground ball rate. So this is another guy that walked 11% of batting, but rolled ground balls.
00:08:28
Speaker 4: At a 50% clip.
00:08:30
Speaker 1: The thing that stresses me out with Alvarez is not that he throws 92. That's kind of a bedrock stressor where it's like, I would love if he threw 95. It's not that he throws 92. It's that he throws so many balls. And I don't know how successful he's going to be if he has to live in the strike zone. I think Ureña can get a lot of outs just pounding the strike zone.
00:08:52
Speaker 4: I don't think Alvarez can.
00:08:53
Speaker 1: I think Alvarez relies on Chase in the same way that Jose Quintana relies on Chase. that's my comp for you. I think Quintana was a master marksman at the peak of his career. But I think this version of Quintana, the one that has been like 36 years old, and it's like, how was he thrown into a 3-1? By getting a lot of chase and by working around the perimeter of the strike zone. I think that's the path forward for Andrew Alvarez.
00:09:20
Speaker 2: I agree.
00:09:20
Speaker 3: He was a difficult pitcher for me to assess long term. Regardless, I mean, this is like a guy that was not on I think really the radar much at all and ended up giving you.
00:09:30
Speaker 2: And a hybrid type of role, right?
00:09:32
Speaker 3: I mean, it was 17 starts, 25 appearances into that 3-4-3 ERA and 112 and two-thirds. Like that's a pretty decent workload, right? What I was impressed by was like when he was on, he could rack up the whiffs and the chase. Like that curveball is definitely a nasty pitch. And then the shorter gyro slider off of that seems to be the creation of a bit of a tunnel there. But it's like, okay, you're just trying to mask this fastball. Like that's the reality of it. Like if you throw it. too much and if hitters are looking for it, it's probably going to get hit decently hard. And you could probably say the same thing about the four seamer and the sinker. So it's a lot of reliance on two breaking balls that I do think can be platoon neutral and showed that they can be, but it's, it's always that fear of like, well, it's going to get back to the fastball eventually.
00:10:20
Speaker 2: And then what are these hitters going to do?
00:10:22
Speaker 3: And that's why I think with Alvarez, we're asking, is he a back? Like, we're not asking if he's a perpetual three, four. Like, I think it's, it's that, that was never even going to be the question with him. But do you think this is a guy that's going to like, hold on to the back of rotation spot in the big leagues for a long time moving forward? Or, you know, is he more of kind of a depth arm you think and long man?
00:10:42
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:10:43
Speaker 4: I think he's probably depth arm long man.
00:10:46
Speaker 1: Like I'm thinking about the season that Mitchell Parker had a couple of years ago and who were saying, Oh, pencil Mitchell Parker into the back of that rotation. And then Mitchell Parker became borderline unpitchable. That is where my mind goes, unfortunately, but I do see a, like a path forward for Alvarez to be a good five, I guess, low end, like Mitchell Parker would be my comp high end. I think like a Bryce Elder would be my comp there. where Elder, like, there's very little room for error.
00:11:16
Speaker 2: But he found it.
00:11:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, he found it.
00:11:18
Speaker 1: He found, like, the tightrope that he can walk, and he put together a really solid year for Atlanta. Like, I feel like we could look at 27 and be like, hmm, down year for Alvarez. And then 28, oh, solid year from Andrew Alvarez. 29, oof, Andrew Alvarez. 2030, nice. Like, we could seesaw like that because I feel like the stuff and the execution of said stuff could be so volatile.
00:11:41
Speaker 3: Dude, I never realized like Quintana, you know, I always assumed he was just.
00:11:46
Speaker 2: Way more in the zone the last few years.
00:11:49
Speaker 4: Never in the zone. Never.
00:11:51
Speaker 3: He has had a couple years where he was very like where he was a little bit more in it.
00:11:55
Speaker 2: But as his.
00:11:56
Speaker 1: White Sox years, he was perfect. But like, dude, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee and St. Louis, he was never in the zone.
00:12:03
Speaker 3: It's a different kind of effectively wild, right? Like it's, it's, it's different than the loud stuff. What the heck do I do? It's more of like the.
00:12:11
Speaker 2: Oh, is he going to sneak it in here this time? And it's just close enough. That's really interesting.
00:12:15
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:12:15
Speaker 2: I think that's the template, but I agree.
00:12:17
Speaker 3: I think it's kind of fringe five, which still for the Nats, man, like going into this past year, they would have collected fringe.
00:12:24
Speaker 2: Fives left and right. Absolutely. Absolutely.
00:12:28
Speaker 4: All right.
00:12:29
Speaker 1: Next guy that we're going to talk about here. Interesting that we talk about fringe fives here. Zach Thornton flashed better than that. Zach Thornton with the New York Mets put together a really solid year, 84 innings and 15 starts for the Metropolitans at a 3-4 ERA, but do want to point you to the 14 homers in 84 innings and the 4-5 FIP that I want to point you to.
00:12:52
Speaker 4: No pitch was diabolically good.
00:12:55
Speaker 1: No pitch was brutally bad for Zach Thornton. He's really hard to digest as well. I think moving forward, Andy Green is probably sitting here saying McLean's the one. Scott's the two. I know Tong can throw. And then we'll see what Thornton is in 27. Is that fair?
00:13:15
Speaker 2: He's earned that. And you know what?
00:13:17
Speaker 3: I mean, I know he was a fifth round pick. And usually that comes with a little bit more pedigree. I don't know what a signing bonus is.
00:13:26
Speaker 4: By the way.
00:13:28
Speaker 1: By the way, fifth round pick out of Grand Canyon. Do you know how much Grand Canyon University spent on their roster for basketball this year?
00:13:35
Speaker 2: For basketball?
00:13:36
Speaker 4: Grand Canyon.
00:13:37
Speaker 2: They've been randomly grabbing recruits, right?
00:13:40
Speaker 1: New member of the Mountain West is spending $ 12 million reportedly on their basketball roster through NIL. I have no idea. Grand Canyon's a for-profit university. Maybe the university's funding it.
00:13:53
Speaker 2: We can get an ROI here.
00:13:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, we could get an ROI here on the basketball roster through NIL.
00:13:58
Speaker 3: Maybe they see Zach Thornton throwing the way he is and they'll, they'll funnel a million or two.
00:14:02
Speaker 2: Into that baseball program over there. That's crazy.
00:14:06
Speaker 4: No, I haven't.
00:14:07
Speaker 2: I love rooting for those teams though. So that might be my team this year.
00:14:09
Speaker 4: There you go.
00:14:11
Speaker 2: I mean, just, just like an unsung kind of guy.
00:14:15
Speaker 3: Right. I mean, move through the minor leagues pretty quickly because he's a strike thrower where the ultimate test is just going to be like, all right, like we know you can throw strikes, but like, are you going to be able to avoid, you know, just getting blitzed at the big league level and, The answer was yes. You mentioned the home run zone. I think that's something to monitor. And unfortunately, with a guy like Thornton, I just feel like the only true way to find a proper answer is just a large sample size of Major League Baseball because there's just some guys, man, where it's like nothing looks like he should be getting the outs that he does, especially.
00:14:48
Speaker 2: The lefties, but they just do.
00:14:50
Speaker 3: And the strike throwing is a huge foundation here, right? Because you pair strike throwing– with having seven pitches, and you got a shot. You got a really good shot, even if your stuff is not great. And it's not like you throw an 89, it's 92, we'll grab a three and maybe surprise you with a four here and there. I feel, here's how I want to position this question. Who do you have more faith in giving you 100-plus innings next year at, you know, let's say below a 4.5 ERA, or like a low fours? Is it Thornton or Alvarez?
00:15:24
Speaker 4: Thornton.
00:15:25
Speaker 2: I agree with you.
00:15:26
Speaker 4: I agree.
00:15:27
Speaker 3: And the big thing is the cutter being the lead pitch. He could just be that cutter guy that just gets weak contact and you can't fathom it.
00:15:34
Speaker 4: And the natural carry on his heater too.
00:15:36
Speaker 1: Like I, that the four seam cutter combination, like that can just mess with righty bats for sure.
00:15:42
Speaker 3: I think he can dodge enough bears. Then he's got the sweeper left on left. It's nothing groundbreaking, but it'll work. I think Thornton's going to stick as a five.
00:15:49
Speaker 4: I do.
00:15:49
Speaker 2: Maybe he'll have some turbulent years, but yeah, I think he sticks as a five.
00:15:54
Speaker 1: I'm in a guy that I'm like very, very sold on at this point, to be honest with you, is Jake Bennett of the Boston Red Sox. Bennett is the next guy that we got to talk about here. And obviously, Tully was the standout rookie in that rotation. And Connelly early coming into the year was forecasted as one or two in terms of rookie standouts in that rotation. But they moved Connelly early to Washington, much like they moved Luis Perales to Washington in the offseason for Jake Bennett in a one for one swap. Jake Bennett this year in his rookie year, 113 innings at a three, six ERA and a FIPA three, five.
00:16:31
Speaker 4: That's interesting to me as well.
00:16:32
Speaker 1: 41% ground ball rate, right on par with major league average, average exit velocity against it was about 87 miles an hour.
00:16:39
Speaker 4: So he induces a lot of weak contact.
00:16:41
Speaker 1: He doesn't strike out a hitter per inning, but Bennett is a fascinating arsenal because it is forcing that doesn't carry very well, kind of blends with a sinker, but the four seam and sinker, he throws both. and they work effectively the same along with the changeup and then occasionally mix in a breaking pitch too.
00:16:59
Speaker 4: Bennett is an.
00:17:00
Speaker 1: Extension machine that will sink it in on lefties hands. He seems like an absolute nightmare in left on left situations. And then righties, you just got to live on the outside part. I love Bennett, to be honest with you. And I think love is a, is a relative term. Like it can be, you know, take it in a whole bunch of different ways. I think Jake Bennett's a major league starter for the next seven to eight years.
00:17:24
Speaker 2: I agree.
00:17:25
Speaker 3: I was critical of this trade when they sent him out for, or when, you know, the Red Sox sent out Perales for Bennett. And yeah, I couldn't be more wrong at this point because this is what the Red Sox do, right?
00:17:40
Speaker 2: They know what to target.
00:17:41
Speaker 3: They know who is going to fit kind of their mold of players that they can maximize.
00:17:46
Speaker 2: And that's a huge, huge, huge asset is so big.
00:17:49
Speaker 3: For, for a front office is to be able to create your own assets, but identifying like the players that you can maximize.
00:17:54
Speaker 1: Right.
00:17:54
Speaker 3: And, and clearly the red Sox have figured that out on the pitching side and Bennett, like.
00:18:00
Speaker 2: Scrap the slider, I think was interesting.
00:18:02
Speaker 3: Like that was one of the first thing that they kind of decided when, when he came in, it was like, let's, let's kind of scrap that, that other slider you were throwing and, and let's look more at this sweeper that you'll just throw left on left here and there. And a, cutter that'll flash to bridge i'm curious if that's going to be a pitch that he throws more but what became abundantly clear is that you know the change up usage went up and the change up shape improved and the fastball shape improved i think that's the biggest thing is like that two seamer it went from like he was able to kill three and a half inches of carry on it and add another two inches of horizontal so it just really had that heaviness to it um that it didn't have before um you mentioned the seven feet of extension that extension paired with like the heaviness running in, like you mentioned Christopher Sanchez, that's kind of a Christopher Sanchez light type of look where it's kind of horizontal, not as ridiculous, but emphasis on light, but that horizontal ish release where it, and with plus plus extension where it's just running in on the hands of lefties and the change up righties, I don't think are going to see until late and it's going to be too late. So, I mean, just making some of those subtle adjustments to be able to get a little bit more I would say just heaviness to the sinker and have the changeup working off of that more effectively. They killed it like three inches on the changeup of Vert as well. So everything's just heavy. And I think that's been a huge part in his success. What's fun with him too is like you'd think that it would just be all ground balls, but it's not because he has the confidence to still buzz that four-seamer up at the top. So I think it's created more vertical separation to where that allows that force humor to be better than it was before. Because now it's like kind of the last thing hitters are thinking about. They're kind of worried about getting lulled into everything running down and being heavy. And then all of a sudden he can buzz 93, 94 up at the top, and it's just going to get by you quicker because it's seven feet of extension from that slot.
00:19:54
Speaker 4: Yep.
00:19:55
Speaker 1: Last marquee starter that we want to talk about here in terms of the underrated is Robert Gasser of the Milwaukee Brewers.
00:20:00
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:20:01
Speaker 1: And Gasser obviously is making a ton of headlines right now. because he just shut the Dodgers down in the NLCS. I'll roll out the red carpet for you on Gasser because I know this is a guy that you have long liked really since the Hader deal. And Gasser is kind of proving on the heels of Tommy John, right? It was Tommy John surgery on the heels of Tommy John that this guy is a legit starting pitching option on the back end for Milwaukee for years to come.
00:20:28
Speaker 3: I also just want to– so I just saw him yesterday and talked to him during Media Day at the World Series. So we did an event in 2024. It was like spring signings and spring training in Arizona with eBay. I think he had to do like three different interviews for that. A long time ago, he said a lot of different things happened. I walk up and also like Media Day is a circus.
00:20:53
Speaker 2: I've never had a player with this kind of memory and recall and I really appreciate it. He looked at me and goes, Arizona. Arizona.
00:20:59
Speaker 3: We did the interview in Arizona, spring signings, whatever. And I was like, dude, that's amazing. Thank you so much for remembering that. So that was really cool. And he's just, he's just an awesome guy. Easy to root for. And, and since then I'm like, all right. So since then you hadn't really thrown that much until this year, right? Like the Tommy John, unfortunately derailed things. We were just chatting about that. And he just said like the, the work in between each, each start, it just ramped up and like coming back from TJ, like that was the focus, like the work between every start. and really, really honing in on that and felt like he got himself in a really good spot. Arsenal-wise, dropped the slot slightly, which I think really helps his stuff work better where everything is horizontal. And so if everything is working east-west and you drop that slot a little bit more horizontal, it's going to allow that to play up. Then the other thing that he mentioned is that cutter that he added. And I think just that pitch to bridge– has been really effective for him as well. And ironically, just him saying like that, just having something straighter to work has helped me a lot from a strike throwing perspective and whatever it's from his slot, the cutter is going to be the straightest thing he throws.
00:22:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's really cool. And he could be this mix and match nightmare.
00:22:14
Speaker 1: And, you know, obviously you look at the Brewer rotation moving forward, it's Mizorowski and Henderson. And if Harrison can recapture any of that magic that he had before the all-star break, he's probably looking as the three for the foreseeable future, but you feel really good about Gasser being a five or a four for the next half decade.
00:22:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think four or five for sure.
00:22:32
Speaker 3: And like the workload hurdle this year was huge and he still looks great in the post season. Like in terms of, he says he feels really fresh. I, And I like that five foot slot is, is it's just.
00:22:44
Speaker 2: So low and horizontal.
00:22:45
Speaker 3: And also by the way, Gasser gets almost seven feet of extension. I think that with the arsenal, like I feel pretty good about him being a four or five for a while. All right.
00:22:53
Speaker 1: We've got some kind of swing men and relievers that we want to talk about in a moment, but arm before that, you want to tell us about our friends at market movers. Yeah.
00:23:00
Speaker 3: I've been using market movers actually through the post-season to try to just see what, what the card market is doing.
00:23:05
Speaker 2: Cause I, it's a sports card and TCG pricing and.
00:23:07
Speaker 3: Collection tracking platform with more than 8 million cards using sales from major marketplaces like eBay, fanatics, collect golden heritage and more. And you can search any player prospect card set grades, et cetera.
00:23:19
Speaker 2: So I always like to use it to see like prospects, of course.
00:23:23
Speaker 3: When they're performing, like as a gun up, is it still too, is it too late for me to get in there and, and pick up some of these players, but sometimes on the big league side, one, I may have already have a ton of cards of this player and, like hey okay he's performing in the playoffs like it's a time for me to maybe just sell a couple to fund the uh the hobby addiction of going to buy other prospect cards and if if you see that chart go up because they have such good visuals and everything i'm like all right might be time you can compare it to other cards too so i'll be like okay well if if this prospect is If Aiden Miller, because of the injuries now, selling for half of Sebastian Walcott, I don't know if that's true. I didn't actually use the platform for that. Then maybe it might be time to get out, and I can compare that way. What I did use the platform for, though, was looking at Junior Caminero cards because I'm like, okay, he's going to the World Series. I know he hasn't had the best postseason, but he's the big homer, and he's set up here to be on the big stage. I have so many Topps Chrome rookie Junior Camineros. I have some Bowman Chrome firsts. Maybe I should sell a couple. I was surprised when I looked at market movers, he's only up about 10%.
00:24:27
Speaker 2: Over the last 90 days. So that told me, hey, I'm just going to hold.
00:24:31
Speaker 3: And that was for his Bowman First Auto PSA 10. I don't even have one of those, but even just looking at like Ace Autos, he's not even up at all. over the last 90 days. And looking at base cards, it's kind of the same story. So that told me, hey, I'm going to hold and I'll just wait for Common Arrow to hit 40 more again next year. And said in the past, I usually would have just assumed, oh, people are crazy about Common Arrow right now. I saw the cards and I don't end up actually selling them for any more than I thought I would have or that I bought them for.
00:24:58
Speaker 2: So that's where it's extremely helpful.
00:25:01
Speaker 3: That on top of the fact that you can just look at every time we put out a top prospect list. And if you're just curious what some of these players are going for you can just search each of them on the market movers app one see their prices and how they compare to others and then to see their price trends from seven days 14 days 30 days 365 days and it'll show you all the recent sales and where they were sold as well and the best part is you get two weeks free plus 20 off for life if you use one word code just baseball j-u-s-t-b-a-s-e-b-a-l-l.
00:25:31
Speaker 4: Nice.
00:25:31
Speaker 2: Or click the link in the episode description. Two weeks free.
00:25:34
Speaker 3: Might as well try it. Check out all the different cards. It's so much fun to just see how the prices have gone up and down. You'll get like a Chris Sale, though. He went up big time during the playoffs. That was fun to just watch the graph go whoop. But then sometimes when teams get bounced, players get bounced, you just watch it go way back down. DePaulo was like... straight up it's like the sarah lang's we um so like it that's where it's fun to just kind of see and then you start digging around if you're a crazy collector like me and saying wait i might have some of those and uh but the other side is like i see where caminero is not doing right now and i say well maybe after the postseason i'll just i'll just pick some up obviously if he wins the world series i think that chart's gonna go we but yeah we think the brewers are probably gonna win and this made me kind of open my eyes to maybe i should be picking up some more caminero.
00:26:20
Speaker 1: Yeah What a world arm Layton can't spell the name of his own company.
00:26:23
Speaker 4: That's tough. B-A-S-C-B-A-L-L. That's how you spell baseball, dude.
00:26:29
Speaker 2: Did I miss an A in there or something?
00:26:31
Speaker 4: No, no, no. You stumbled over it.
00:26:33
Speaker 2: It's tricky.
00:26:34
Speaker 4: It's all caps.
00:26:35
Speaker 2: It's hard to read all caps.
00:26:37
Speaker 4: J-U-S-T-B-A-S-C-B-A-L-L. Yeah.
00:26:40
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:26:41
Speaker 2: And that's two weeks free plus 20% for life.
00:26:44
Speaker 4: Yeah. That's badass. All right. Let's keep on moving here with these arms.
00:26:49
Speaker 1: And we kind of transitioned into the swingman version of this. Guy that was a full-time starter for the Minnesota Twins, did make two appearances out of the pen. Connor Prelip. Prelip, 25-year-old, was the second-round pick back in 22 out of the University of Alabama. Prelip, 126 innings in his maiden season of Major League Baseball at a 4.9 ERA. The FIP was at 3.7. But Connor Prelip is an interesting one to me, to be honest with you, man.
00:27:15
Speaker 4: Like, I don't necessarily....
00:27:19
Speaker 1: Dig it totally um the slider was really good the curveball was really good but conor prelip has some fastball issues i'd be curious to see how he can tinker with his fastball to make it a little bit better because that fastball was not only dead zoning but it was hit very very hard in major league baseball this year.
00:27:38
Speaker 3: Yes very fair the number one reason why i wanted him on here though is if you told me you're getting 125 and two-thirds innings at the big league level and really 100 and 40 innings almost total this season from Connor Prelip. I wouldn't even care what the ERA was because of how unfortunate his injury history has been, right? I mean, we've talked about him like, I think since 2022, he'd like, okay, he was hurt at Alabama. We barely saw him throw in college. It was like 28 innings there. But this guy's nasty, right? Like, but I can't wait to see him unleashed. And then each year there was a different injury that really held him out. And I mean, we didn't see him throw in 2022. In 2023, he threw, I think it was six and two thirds innings in 2024, he threw 23 innings. Then 2025, we finally get like 82 out of him. And then 2026, you get to this, you know, 130, I think it was like four and a third plateau.
00:28:31
Speaker 2: So that was extremely encouraging.
00:28:33
Speaker 3: Now, what does it ultimately look like is going to be the next step? Cause I think, you know, the fastball in the past had been a little bit more lively and And I think when you just deal with all the different injuries that Prelip has dealt with, like maybe it just doesn't quite come out the same and that's going to be.
00:28:48
Speaker 2: Something to monitor.
00:28:48
Speaker 3: But I was impressed with, you know, at least enough of the ability to throw strikes. You mentioned the breaking balls. Like, I think those are pretty darn good pitches. But yeah, how is he going to work around that fastball is going to be the question. Maybe it's going to be more usage of that sinker. and finding a little bit more arm side action there, but that got crushed as well. So yeah, that's going to be the big thing is, is trying to find a way to work around that fastball.
00:29:14
Speaker 2: Does it come with maybe just more view? Oh, that comes back with him as he just continues to, to, you know, get stronger.
00:29:21
Speaker 3: Or is it just trying to find a way to create more vert or, you know, get more arm side action on that, on that sinker. That's ultimately going to be what defines things for him. But I do think with the quality of the curveballs and at least the sheer velocity, their quality of breaking balls in the sheer velocity he's at least a back end of the rotation type of guy now he at least showed that he can he's taking a big step forward and handling the workload required of that role.
00:29:44
Speaker 1: Yeah no doubt about that the breaking balls were a heck of a lot better than I think I was anticipating personally but yeah the fastball like I for me I just have to see the fastball get better than borderline unusable at points like when you got runners at second and third and one man gone i know what i'm getting if i'm in the box right i'm getting nothing breaking balls because the fastball i'm going to do some damage.
00:30:05
Speaker 3: On yeah and the last thing i'll say so that's short on delivery sometimes like it just results in a fastball that doesn't quite it kind of becomes arrowish and yeah it seems to be the case there so we'll see but What do you feel like back in the rotation guy with those breaking balls?
00:30:20
Speaker 2: Yeah. And it's, it's still at least it's 95 and in change.
00:30:25
Speaker 3: Like if it's going to be straight, let it be 95.
00:30:29
Speaker 4: We've talked a lot about five starters today, to be honest with you.
00:30:32
Speaker 2: Hey, underrated seasons, baby.
00:30:34
Speaker 4: Underrated seasons, man.
00:30:35
Speaker 1: We're talking a lot about five starters, but I want to take you to one of my favorite guys in major league baseball this year, because of the rule five element and the, whatever you need coach element, Spencer Miles was a freaking dog this year for the Toronto Blue Jays, and it was an incredibly underwhelming season for Toronto.
00:30:53
Speaker 4: I get that.
00:30:54
Speaker 1: This season may have flown under the radar. Spencer Miles threw 96 innings at a 2-6 ERA with a 2-6 FIP as well. He faced 388 hitters in 96 innings and allowed five home runs. He only walked 25 guys.
00:31:05
Speaker 2: He punched out 93.
00:31:05
Speaker 4: He throws a sinker at 96. Spencer Miles is really freaking good. And you want to talk about best rule five finds in recent memory. Like Shane Smith was an all-star with Chicago, but Shane Smith didn't really pitch at all for the White Sox this year. Liam Hicks was a nails rule five find for the Marlins. They turn him into a Tampa Bay Ray and they turn them into three prospects. I think Spencer Miles is one of the better rule five finds in recent memory, to be honest with you, it feels like he can be a, whatever you need coach kind of guy for the foreseeable future for John Schneider in Toronto.
00:31:50
Speaker 2: And he's one that we could have done. I think you could have had said arm.
00:31:54
Speaker 3: I need 500 names of rule five eligible. But now if I, I would have got it from somebody else. Cause if you're dug around enough, somebody would have told us, Hey, this guy's on team radars, but like, if it was my job for an organization to source and I don't have scouts boots on the ground, how am I getting to Spencer miles? What, what exposure would I've had to Spencer miles, a 2022 draft pick that before, did.
00:32:22
Speaker 2: You touch on this? And how many innings did he.
00:32:24
Speaker 4: Throw before he threw? He threw zero.
00:32:27
Speaker 1: Like, I mean, zero, this guy threw in college, 145 innings, his draft year out of Missouri, 70 innings at a six and a half ERA.
00:32:37
Speaker 4: He throws seven and a third innings in 2022.
00:32:40
Speaker 1: He doesn't pitch in 23, comes back in 24, throws seven and a third, and then throws eight and two thirds in the fall league in 25. He was dealing with a variety of injuries. So this guy in his minor league time threw just shy of 15 innings, and you can account for nine innings in the fall league as well. We're talking about 25 innings of a professional sample for Spencer Miles before being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
00:33:03
Speaker 2: 23 back surgery.
00:33:06
Speaker 3: It says right flexor and Tommy John surgery in 24, 25. He, he threw more endings in the Arizona fall league than he did at any other level, which was, as you mentioned, eight and two thirds, really good endings. And I think that's where he turned heads. I know it sounds crazy.
00:33:23
Speaker 2: Struck out 12 who walked one. And I think that's where the blue Jay said, let's take a shot on this guy.
00:33:29
Speaker 3: Right. And I kind of, Kind of like that Rule 5 approach. Obviously, if you want me to Naz Nunez and whatever, I get it too. But shoot for the ceiling of this... Hey, it may not work.
00:33:40
Speaker 2: He's barely pitched.
00:33:41
Speaker 3: But he clearly has a higher ceiling than a lot of the other depthy arms that we're looking for.
00:33:46
Speaker 2: And Toronto was right in that regard.
00:33:49
Speaker 3: The fact that he made starts, he picked up saves, he bridged to the bullpen from short starts.
00:33:55
Speaker 2: He did it all. And he was damn good in all the different roles.
00:33:59
Speaker 3: I'm curious what his role is going to be, because I think the big thing for the Blue Jays this year is they wanted to just build him up and get him healthy. And I mean, this is a career high in innings. Now you hope next year you can throw 120, 130, like lazy analysis. But if you look at Spencer Miles, the VAC page, he's top notch in almost everything except for chase and whip, which I think is interesting, but it doesn't really matter because. He's so consistently in the zone. He is so consistently getting weak contact and on the ground. Like the average exit velocity against him was 87 miles an hour, and then the ground ball rate was 51%. So it's weak on the ground. You're going to probably do pretty well, and that's why the expected batting average was so low. Based on that arsenal, you'd think that this could be kind of a ground ball rolling– I mean, who knows? Could be middle rotation type. But also, did some of his stuff maybe play up because it was shorter spurts for the most part? Like, is this the role that he should just always be in? That's the big question. But I think what's abundantly clear here is that you have a really good Swiss Army knife piece for you for a long time moving forward. I just think with the quality of the fastballs, as long as they don't degrade too much being stretched out further, it's worth a thought. But I also don't want to– if it ain't broke, don't fix it, right? And you have a really good– piece that can fill several different roles.
00:35:20
Speaker 1: Yeah no doubt i think it's best served in a swiss army knife role to be honest with you as opposed to a tried and true starting pitcher a couple more relievers before we say see you here aj blue ball of the houston astros is the first of three relievers that we want to talk about here blue ball was a guy that i thought was going to start games to be honest with you like he appeared in 11 games and made three starts It was 11 appearances and 32 innings and 25 for Houston. And he was really good. This year was really good as well. 64 appearances is kind of a long relief option. 96 innings at a three, seven ERA FIP indicated a little bit of tire.
00:35:54
Speaker 4: Good luck for him.
00:35:55
Speaker 1: But AJ blue ball walked 11% of guys, Kate about 23% of guys and did not roll ground balls. He's a fly ball guy, but it's just a very funky look from AJ blue ball.
00:36:06
Speaker 3: We always talk about how pitching is just, you know, something could change so quickly, right? Blue ball could show up next year throwing, you know, with a, with a cutter at 92 and maybe the fastball ticks up and yeah, there's a, these curve balls, a pitchy trust more. And all of a sudden it's like, okay, this is a different picture. But going into last year, I thought from what we saw, I agree. I thought, okay, this could be a rotation piece for them. And I was excited about blue ball. And this year, and then the season he had ended up being solid, but I think a lot of what you showed was still like, this might be a guy that's best served in shorter spurts where he's throwing 96, 97 instead of 94, 95. And then, you know, really relying on the sweeper and change up, which are both solid pitches though. But I do wonder if this is another picture that's just better in that Swiss army knife role. I think he can be really good in it, but it might make more sense for blue ball in that role. I think if you don't get the pictures that you were expecting and you want to test it out and see, By all means, I think Bubak could end up settling into a back in the rotation type.
00:37:10
Speaker 2: Of type of role for them.
00:37:13
Speaker 3: But I think right now, just to get the most out of that stuff, like I don't know if he has a huge margin for error. And I kind of like him in that multi inning relief type of spot that he was mostly deployed in and seemed to be pretty effective in.
00:37:27
Speaker 4: No, I think I'm totally with you there. And I agree. The Astros have a lot of pitching questions.
00:37:31
Speaker 1: They have a lot of questions in general that they have to answer with a new GM and a new manager as well, whenever they decide to make those hires, but Godspeed to them.
00:37:40
Speaker 4: And AJ blue ball will be a big piece for that movie.
00:37:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
00:37:44
Speaker 1: Two more guys and save the best for last, probably two future closers here that we're going to talk about. First one in San Diego is Brad Gley Rodriguez, and he doesn't have the opportunity to close games right now because he had Mason Miller and Brad Gley was a low on the totem pole coming into this year and slowly, but surely climbed the totem pole. Jason Adam gets hurt. Bradley moves, moves up a spot. Estrada gets hurt. Bradley moves up a spot. I think we could have viewed coming into this year, David Morgan and Bradley Rodriguez as a toss up. Bradley moves up a spot. He's clearly that guy. Yuki Matsui was really good this year, but Bradley is better. Like you talk about ascending the ranks of the Padre bullpen. that night shift turned into working backwards Miller in the ninth more a hone in the eighth and Bradley Rodriguez in the seventh, because Bradley Rodriguez through 74 innings at a two, two ERA and 68 appearances.
00:38:42
Speaker 4: He allowed six homers and Kate 81 guys.
00:38:44
Speaker 2: It's disgusting. And he he's also like, he's still just 22.
00:38:50
Speaker 3: That's what I'm so excited to just see as he continues to develop and mature, but it's clearly already ahead of his years. him and Morgan were two of the guys that we were talking about when we were, I know the Padre system is never going to be quite loaded because of the way it unloads, but the, the two prospects that like we ranked pretty high, even as relievers, because it was like this, I feel real good about this guy, at least grabbing the seventh and holding it down for a long time, especially with Rodriguez.
00:39:17
Speaker 2: And I mean, he has just shown that.
00:39:19
Speaker 3: And then some, the, the fastball quality to pair with the, the just disgusting change up that he has. it just creates such a tough look for hitters, man. And that's all he really needs. It's been really fun to watch. And you mentioned, like, the closer eventually thing as well. Like, I'm trying to think of the last time we've seen a reliever because a lot of times it's like, okay, guys that are this nasty– at 22 years old are probably still continuing to try as a starter. Like when's the last time, and maybe I'm being short-sighted and forgetting something, but like when's the last time we've had a 22 year old reliever, this already like guaranteed to be good at high leverage.
00:39:57
Speaker 4: It's a great question. I'm sure there's someone like, cause.
00:40:01
Speaker 1: I'm sure Fuentes, Fuentes is like, we're still kicking around the idea of starting though.
00:40:06
Speaker 2: He probably will.
00:40:08
Speaker 4: He probably will.
00:40:09
Speaker 1: So like we're, we're kicking around this idea and it's like, all right, Yeah, that's a good question.
00:40:16
Speaker 2: Comments. Let us know in the comments. There's definitely an answer.
00:40:19
Speaker 4: And there's an answer in the last five to ten years. I know it, too.
00:40:23
Speaker 2: But point being, it's never that common.
00:40:26
Speaker 3: And, I mean, this big reason why, 70% strike rate on a changeup that he throws 40%.
00:40:31
Speaker 2: Of the time that is a plus-plus pitch.
00:40:34
Speaker 3: And then that changeup gets 10 inches of vertical separation and another 10 inches of horizontal separation from that fastball.
00:40:42
Speaker 2: Like, good luck.
00:40:44
Speaker 3: And then he's got the two-seamer as well. So you get the two-seamer, four-seamer changeup. And then the other aspect, the last thing I'll mention with Rodriguez is.
00:40:52
Speaker 2: He fills up the zone.
00:40:53
Speaker 3: Usually these stuffy young arms that are already relegated to reliever, it's like the Teodo experience. You're like, oh, he hasn't even thrown enough strikes for it to matter or whatever.
00:41:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, he is. He's going to fill it up. And he's absolutely filled it up.
00:41:07
Speaker 3: Six and a half percent walk rate this past year. He's going to close games. I don't know how soon because of where he's at, like you said, but.
00:41:14
Speaker 2: It's going to close games. All right.
00:41:16
Speaker 1: Last but not least, Brandon Garcia in the same division in the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. Brandon Garcia was an interesting case because he and Ashton Izzy were acquired for Josh Naylor at the deadline in 25. Garcia was a starting pitcher at that point. I think you were kind of lukewarm on the idea of Garcia because it's like, ah, is he a back-end starter? All of a sudden, he turns into this diabolical reliever and a guy that does look like a future closer.
00:41:41
Speaker 4: He got five saves this year for Arizona.
00:41:43
Speaker 1: 51 innings at a one 90 RA three homers against him in 51 innings. And he came 60 to 11 walks. He is a left on left nightmare for opposing hitters, which is.
00:41:55
Speaker 3: Why I'm so glad that, you know, they made the transition to said like, let's, let's max you out here out of the bullpen.
00:42:01
Speaker 2: And Oh my gosh, like that slot.
00:42:03
Speaker 3: It's like 17 degrees, like 17 degree arm angle. And then everything works perfectly. It's the gasser conversation just to another degree where you are just getting everything sweeping across.
00:42:18
Speaker 2: The thing that's fascinating to me about Garcia is you'd think sinker, sweeper, cutter in the middle.
00:42:25
Speaker 3: And from 17 degrees, okay, even my mom would know just watching him throw, that guy's not– lefties are not hitting that guy.
00:42:34
Speaker 2: But the fact that righties didn't hit him either I think is fascinating.
00:42:40
Speaker 3: To be working that way where most of your stuff is breaking, like your sweep is going to be breaking towards righties.
00:42:46
Speaker 2: Singer, of course, is going to be working away.
00:42:47
Speaker 3: And I think that's just why it's ended up working well enough is how much separation between the two.
00:42:52
Speaker 2: But, okay, lefties hit 146. Kind of expected that. Righties hit 165. 434 OPS against lefties. 496 against righties. There's not even really splits. And I think the cutter went a long way in that. I mean, a 94-mile-an-hour cutter.
00:43:07
Speaker 3: That you probably don't know whether it's the sinker or the sweeper until it's.
00:43:11
Speaker 2: Too late if you're a righty, and that really helps.
00:43:14
Speaker 3: But, I mean, the sheer velocity at 97 with the action that he's able to generate, I'm really excited to see what he can do too. And, like, this guy's probably going to close out games too, I imagine, if he has this type of platoon-neutral situation. Like, what else do you really need to see from Garcia? It's 97. It's 16 inches arm side with the two-seamer. And then it's, you know, another 12 inches glove side with the sweeper. And then you have the cutter to bridge right up the middle.
00:43:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, man. I don't know.
00:43:49
Speaker 1: I think they could committee this where it's like Garcia and Murillo for the foreseeable future. That's a diabolical one-two punch on the back of a bullpen.
00:43:57
Speaker 2: Last note, and I don't know if there's anything to this.
00:44:00
Speaker 3: I'd have to talk to people smarter than me, but Ashby doesn't get any extension, right? He's more over the top, but Ashby doesn't get any extension. Garcia doesn't get any extension. And they both throw really hard with nasty breaking balls. And I just wonder if like the no extension thing actually works in their favor, where with Garcia, it looks like he's throwing it from behind his body in a different way. It's behind his body, then it comes out from the side. With Ashby, it's like behind his body and then it comes out over his shoulders. And I just wonder if that almost makes it harder for these hitters to pick it up.
00:44:29
Speaker 4: I bet, yes.
00:44:30
Speaker 1: The other thing you give it like two more feet of room to break, like the breaking balls, you give yourself two more feet.
00:44:40
Speaker 4: And I think that's a huge element of this.
00:44:42
Speaker 1: We're like glass now is a unicorn because he gets seven and a half feet of extension and he could still snap off the breaking ball. But naturally you just give your pitch like more time to move more space to, to move in air. Like as simple as that sounds.
00:44:58
Speaker 3: And to that point, hitters were three for 63. Against his sweeper, Garcia's sweeper this past year. That's an 0-48 batting average with 39 strikeouts.
00:45:10
Speaker 4: That plays.
00:45:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, that'll work. And I think the big reason why is that sinker. Average launch angle on the sinker, 10 degrees. This kid is special. Excited to watch more of Garcia as well. That'll do it for the pitching rookie review. Hopefully next week.
00:45:24
Speaker 3: We will have the team top prospect lists done. Very much been plugging away at that. World Series has been a little bit of a detour. And by the way, we're out here covering all of those games. So stay tuned with us on the just baseball show live after every single ball game as well. And then I'm going to be at all the games. So stay tuned on social and stuff like that as well. As always, thank you for listening. Have a great weekend, enjoy the world series, and we will talk prospects with you. Maybe check in on the fall league too next week.
Speaker 1: And he swings!
00:00:02
Speaker 2: Hits it high!
00:00:04
Speaker 1: And deep!
00:00:05
Speaker 2: And gone!
00:00:07
Speaker 3: Still going back! Out of here!
00:00:13
Speaker 2: Welcome to the big leagues!
00:00:15
Speaker 3: Deep to center field.
00:00:17
Speaker 4: And it is gone!
00:00:19
Speaker 1: Wow, his first big league swing is going to be a grand slam home run.
00:00:23
Speaker 4: Swing and drive!
00:00:25
Speaker 3: Mountain right!
00:00:28
Speaker 4: Welcome to the show!
00:00:32
Speaker 3: Welcome back to The Call Up, your go-to podcast on the future stars of Major League Baseball. Jack McMullen, Arm Layton, we are doing the pitching side of the rookie review here. And remember, it's underrated rookie seasons because we don't need to talk to you about Parker Messick. We don't need to get into that. That was for the Just Baseball show throughout a lot of the season. We want to highlight some of the guys that maybe we didn't even really talk about as prospects very much. that ended up getting up to the big leagues and making an impact enough so that, you know, we want to look back at the season and say, okay, clearly this guy's better than we thought he would be or quickly, you know, became this, this new pitcher, but how does he project long-term?
00:01:11
Speaker 1: What is it?
00:01:11
Speaker 2: What do we think he's going to be?
00:01:12
Speaker 3: Ultimately, was this the best that we saw of him or is there even more to be unlocked there? So it's going to be fun. We got plenty of different arms, some relievers mixed in as well, which I think is a little bit easier to, To buy into two gnarly pitchers. Let's go with the starters, though. It's going to be fun to dive in. And I'm very curious, Jack, your thoughts on some of these guys that you saw throw probably a couple of times this year, you know, in person with some some interdivision guys.
00:01:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, man.
00:01:38
Speaker 4: No, I'm really excited.
00:01:39
Speaker 1: And I like the lens of the underrated arms that we're going with here because. You know, these are guys that like we might have mentioned in passing on the Just Baseball show.
00:01:48
Speaker 4: Where it's like, oh, and Zach Thornton's good.
00:01:50
Speaker 1: Like we never really actually dove into why Zach Thornton was good versus a guy like McClain. We totally dove in or Messick. We totally dove in. So excited to chat about guys like that. So might as well just kick it off here.
00:02:03
Speaker 4: First one that we're going to talk about is Parker Messick of the Cleveland Guardians. I'm kidding.
00:02:07
Speaker 1: First one that we're going to talk about is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball that very few people probably had the chance to tune into because it was West Coast and because this team was unfortunately irrelevant for the entirety of the season. Walbert Ureña of the LA Angels. Ureña put together a hell of a year in his rookie campaign. He's 22 years old. He doesn't turn 23 until the end of January at 27. But this guy in 148 innings had a 297 ERA. It was a whip of 1.23. Opponents hit 210 against him, and he rolled ground balls.
00:02:41
Speaker 4: At a 55% clip.
00:02:44
Speaker 1: I made the joke to you when the Angels came to Miami in mid-August. I get why they moved Jose Soriano. They already had a Jose Soriano when he was 22 years old in Walbert, Oranje.
00:02:56
Speaker 4: With the sinker and the changeup, he throws absolute bowling balls. Oranje does.
00:03:02
Speaker 2: Truth and jest, right? I mean, you might not be wrong.
00:03:05
Speaker 3: It's a very similar archetype, and it's a guy that's already getting to that level of production. I always feel weird using the word production on the mound, but I know that it's usable.
00:03:17
Speaker 2: That Soriano is kind of breaking out into.
00:03:20
Speaker 3: Now, is Urania going to be a 297 over 30.
00:03:25
Speaker 2: Starts next year?
00:03:26
Speaker 3: I don't know. That's where just natural variance kicks in, especially for ground ball guys. Like, Urania could be the exact same pitcher next year, and it could be a 3-4 just because just a little bit of batted ball luck, some little things here and there. Regardless, I think the larger conversation is this is a middle rotation pitcher now moving forward, right? Like, do you have any doubts that Urania is going to be a middle rotation arm?
00:03:50
Speaker 4: I have no doubts.
00:03:51
Speaker 1: I think the question then morphs into is he a mid-rotation arm or does he flash front line? Because Soriano, I think, flashes front line.
00:04:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
00:04:01
Speaker 2: And I think that's a difference.
00:04:03
Speaker 3: And I think when you look at Urania, to me, I still see just middle rotation at this point. But reminder, he's 22.
00:04:12
Speaker 2: So can you really rule that out?
00:04:13
Speaker 3: And also like that short, it labels as a sweeper for me in the system I'm looking at right now.
00:04:19
Speaker 2: I'm curious what Savant has. They've got him as a sweeper too.
00:04:23
Speaker 3: It's like a short sweeper that, I mean, that pitch, I really think for a sinker, like a heavy sinker guy that'll buzz the four seam or two and a change up like sinker change up guy to also have the sweeper working glove side.
00:04:36
Speaker 2: To me, that unlocks another notch.
00:04:38
Speaker 3: Like if everything's more arm side and whatever, but you execute it really well, it's really hard to get to that like ace hood. I do feel like when you have that breaking ball working glove side, that can really work right on right as well.
00:04:51
Speaker 2: And so just keep lefties honest here and there.
00:04:53
Speaker 3: They don't kind of lull into the cadence of everything arm side and the four seam or that you could still buzz up at the top.
00:04:58
Speaker 2: He can work all four quadrants.
00:05:00
Speaker 3: And I'm sure as he develops, maybe he adds in a cutter or another pitch that just is another taste breaker. I don't think you can rule that out from a 22 year old. The thing is, is he's going to pitch to contact a good bit. And, you know, that helped him, I think, mitigate what has been a walk rate that's been high in the past. And that walk rate is going to need to continue to drop, right?
00:05:20
Speaker 2: These kinds of pitchers.
00:05:22
Speaker 3: Another example, like If you are a ground ball guy, it doesn't help if you have traffic on. Yes, you could say double play. Generally speaking, it's not going to help. And it was an 11% walk rate this year. So that's probably the number one thing to look at.
00:05:36
Speaker 4: There are two gold standards, I think, at this.
00:05:39
Speaker 1: And they both kind of paint the picture of exactly what you're talking about. I think gold standard number one, who's been doing it for longer with the type of arsenal that Arrhenia has. And it's a different fastball, no doubt. but Gaussman, I think Kevin Gaussman is like the gold standard of fastball split or fastball change. And then occasionally mix in this baby breaking ball and live on the ground.
00:06:04
Speaker 4: Don't allow home runs.
00:06:06
Speaker 1: Gaussman doesn't walk people. He's famous for not allowing homers and not walking guys.
00:06:11
Speaker 4: Like he is the FIP king. The other one obviously is Sanchez.
00:06:14
Speaker 1: Who's going to finish second at Cy Young vote and Christopher Sanchez in Philadelphia and Christopher Sanchez is The reason he's so darn good is he's pinpoint with his sinker and his changeup. You're not asking Ureña to be pinpoint because if he did become pinpoint with 99 and that changeup, we're talking about a Sanchez type of season where you're getting Cy Young votes. We're not asking him to do that, his age 23 season. You're asking him to be more in the strike zone, to not shoot yourself in the foot. And I think that can make a frontline starter. Like, why can't Ureña put up the kind of season that, He just did, frankly, like I was going to say that Detmers did and they create kind of this co-frontline thing.
00:06:56
Speaker 4: But hell, Arrhenia is already in that conversation.
00:06:59
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah.
00:07:00
Speaker 3: And the other one other shout and obviously a lot of things that he has to hone in on to get there. But in terms of just the sinker change up, the copycat nature of it, they're both 90 plus miles per hour with like similar shape. And a lot of times we talk about. sinker change up having big separation. And then a lot of times they can have similar shape and they work, it can work well. It's just, you might not get as much in zone with, but you'll get so much more weak contact, ground balls, et cetera. Sandy Ocontra, like that's an interesting template on the baseline to look at. Sandy, what he does obviously is executes unbelievably well. And there's just added pitches and added pitches. So can Urania add that cutter and even that taste breaking, you know, more, more gyro slider, who knows. But I think just that, that template and that foundation is, With Sandy also being able to buzz the foreseamer here and there, that unlocked another notch for him too that hitters had to respect.
00:07:48
Speaker 2: I'm very eager to see Ureña' s.
00:07:49
Speaker 3: Development because to this point, what we just discussed, it's very clear that there's so much more in there and so much more to be unlocked and things that I think could be tacked on for him as well.
00:08:00
Speaker 1: Entirely different arm that we go to next in Washington, other side of America. Andrew Alvarez, the left-hander for the Washington Nationals, put together a really solid year. 113 innings at a 3-4 ERA. The FIP was at 3.32. Andrew Alvarez is a guy that throws about 92 miles an hour. Opponents hit. 229 against him with a 50% ground ball rate. So this is another guy that walked 11% of batting, but rolled ground balls.
00:08:28
Speaker 4: At a 50% clip.
00:08:30
Speaker 1: The thing that stresses me out with Alvarez is not that he throws 92. That's kind of a bedrock stressor where it's like, I would love if he threw 95. It's not that he throws 92. It's that he throws so many balls. And I don't know how successful he's going to be if he has to live in the strike zone. I think Ureña can get a lot of outs just pounding the strike zone.
00:08:52
Speaker 4: I don't think Alvarez can.
00:08:53
Speaker 1: I think Alvarez relies on Chase in the same way that Jose Quintana relies on Chase. that's my comp for you. I think Quintana was a master marksman at the peak of his career. But I think this version of Quintana, the one that has been like 36 years old, and it's like, how was he thrown into a 3-1? By getting a lot of chase and by working around the perimeter of the strike zone. I think that's the path forward for Andrew Alvarez.
00:09:20
Speaker 2: I agree.
00:09:20
Speaker 3: He was a difficult pitcher for me to assess long term. Regardless, I mean, this is like a guy that was not on I think really the radar much at all and ended up giving you.
00:09:30
Speaker 2: And a hybrid type of role, right?
00:09:32
Speaker 3: I mean, it was 17 starts, 25 appearances into that 3-4-3 ERA and 112 and two-thirds. Like that's a pretty decent workload, right? What I was impressed by was like when he was on, he could rack up the whiffs and the chase. Like that curveball is definitely a nasty pitch. And then the shorter gyro slider off of that seems to be the creation of a bit of a tunnel there. But it's like, okay, you're just trying to mask this fastball. Like that's the reality of it. Like if you throw it. too much and if hitters are looking for it, it's probably going to get hit decently hard. And you could probably say the same thing about the four seamer and the sinker. So it's a lot of reliance on two breaking balls that I do think can be platoon neutral and showed that they can be, but it's, it's always that fear of like, well, it's going to get back to the fastball eventually.
00:10:20
Speaker 2: And then what are these hitters going to do?
00:10:22
Speaker 3: And that's why I think with Alvarez, we're asking, is he a back? Like, we're not asking if he's a perpetual three, four. Like, I think it's, it's that, that was never even going to be the question with him. But do you think this is a guy that's going to like, hold on to the back of rotation spot in the big leagues for a long time moving forward? Or, you know, is he more of kind of a depth arm you think and long man?
00:10:42
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:10:43
Speaker 4: I think he's probably depth arm long man.
00:10:46
Speaker 1: Like I'm thinking about the season that Mitchell Parker had a couple of years ago and who were saying, Oh, pencil Mitchell Parker into the back of that rotation. And then Mitchell Parker became borderline unpitchable. That is where my mind goes, unfortunately, but I do see a, like a path forward for Alvarez to be a good five, I guess, low end, like Mitchell Parker would be my comp high end. I think like a Bryce Elder would be my comp there. where Elder, like, there's very little room for error.
00:11:16
Speaker 2: But he found it.
00:11:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, he found it.
00:11:18
Speaker 1: He found, like, the tightrope that he can walk, and he put together a really solid year for Atlanta. Like, I feel like we could look at 27 and be like, hmm, down year for Alvarez. And then 28, oh, solid year from Andrew Alvarez. 29, oof, Andrew Alvarez. 2030, nice. Like, we could seesaw like that because I feel like the stuff and the execution of said stuff could be so volatile.
00:11:41
Speaker 3: Dude, I never realized like Quintana, you know, I always assumed he was just.
00:11:46
Speaker 2: Way more in the zone the last few years.
00:11:49
Speaker 4: Never in the zone. Never.
00:11:51
Speaker 3: He has had a couple years where he was very like where he was a little bit more in it.
00:11:55
Speaker 2: But as his.
00:11:56
Speaker 1: White Sox years, he was perfect. But like, dude, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee and St. Louis, he was never in the zone.
00:12:03
Speaker 3: It's a different kind of effectively wild, right? Like it's, it's, it's different than the loud stuff. What the heck do I do? It's more of like the.
00:12:11
Speaker 2: Oh, is he going to sneak it in here this time? And it's just close enough. That's really interesting.
00:12:15
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:12:15
Speaker 2: I think that's the template, but I agree.
00:12:17
Speaker 3: I think it's kind of fringe five, which still for the Nats, man, like going into this past year, they would have collected fringe.
00:12:24
Speaker 2: Fives left and right. Absolutely. Absolutely.
00:12:28
Speaker 4: All right.
00:12:29
Speaker 1: Next guy that we're going to talk about here. Interesting that we talk about fringe fives here. Zach Thornton flashed better than that. Zach Thornton with the New York Mets put together a really solid year, 84 innings and 15 starts for the Metropolitans at a 3-4 ERA, but do want to point you to the 14 homers in 84 innings and the 4-5 FIP that I want to point you to.
00:12:52
Speaker 4: No pitch was diabolically good.
00:12:55
Speaker 1: No pitch was brutally bad for Zach Thornton. He's really hard to digest as well. I think moving forward, Andy Green is probably sitting here saying McLean's the one. Scott's the two. I know Tong can throw. And then we'll see what Thornton is in 27. Is that fair?
00:13:15
Speaker 2: He's earned that. And you know what?
00:13:17
Speaker 3: I mean, I know he was a fifth round pick. And usually that comes with a little bit more pedigree. I don't know what a signing bonus is.
00:13:26
Speaker 4: By the way.
00:13:28
Speaker 1: By the way, fifth round pick out of Grand Canyon. Do you know how much Grand Canyon University spent on their roster for basketball this year?
00:13:35
Speaker 2: For basketball?
00:13:36
Speaker 4: Grand Canyon.
00:13:37
Speaker 2: They've been randomly grabbing recruits, right?
00:13:40
Speaker 1: New member of the Mountain West is spending $ 12 million reportedly on their basketball roster through NIL. I have no idea. Grand Canyon's a for-profit university. Maybe the university's funding it.
00:13:53
Speaker 2: We can get an ROI here.
00:13:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, we could get an ROI here on the basketball roster through NIL.
00:13:58
Speaker 3: Maybe they see Zach Thornton throwing the way he is and they'll, they'll funnel a million or two.
00:14:02
Speaker 2: Into that baseball program over there. That's crazy.
00:14:06
Speaker 4: No, I haven't.
00:14:07
Speaker 2: I love rooting for those teams though. So that might be my team this year.
00:14:09
Speaker 4: There you go.
00:14:11
Speaker 2: I mean, just, just like an unsung kind of guy.
00:14:15
Speaker 3: Right. I mean, move through the minor leagues pretty quickly because he's a strike thrower where the ultimate test is just going to be like, all right, like we know you can throw strikes, but like, are you going to be able to avoid, you know, just getting blitzed at the big league level and, The answer was yes. You mentioned the home run zone. I think that's something to monitor. And unfortunately, with a guy like Thornton, I just feel like the only true way to find a proper answer is just a large sample size of Major League Baseball because there's just some guys, man, where it's like nothing looks like he should be getting the outs that he does, especially.
00:14:48
Speaker 2: The lefties, but they just do.
00:14:50
Speaker 3: And the strike throwing is a huge foundation here, right? Because you pair strike throwing– with having seven pitches, and you got a shot. You got a really good shot, even if your stuff is not great. And it's not like you throw an 89, it's 92, we'll grab a three and maybe surprise you with a four here and there. I feel, here's how I want to position this question. Who do you have more faith in giving you 100-plus innings next year at, you know, let's say below a 4.5 ERA, or like a low fours? Is it Thornton or Alvarez?
00:15:24
Speaker 4: Thornton.
00:15:25
Speaker 2: I agree with you.
00:15:26
Speaker 4: I agree.
00:15:27
Speaker 3: And the big thing is the cutter being the lead pitch. He could just be that cutter guy that just gets weak contact and you can't fathom it.
00:15:34
Speaker 4: And the natural carry on his heater too.
00:15:36
Speaker 1: Like I, that the four seam cutter combination, like that can just mess with righty bats for sure.
00:15:42
Speaker 3: I think he can dodge enough bears. Then he's got the sweeper left on left. It's nothing groundbreaking, but it'll work. I think Thornton's going to stick as a five.
00:15:49
Speaker 4: I do.
00:15:49
Speaker 2: Maybe he'll have some turbulent years, but yeah, I think he sticks as a five.
00:15:54
Speaker 1: I'm in a guy that I'm like very, very sold on at this point, to be honest with you, is Jake Bennett of the Boston Red Sox. Bennett is the next guy that we got to talk about here. And obviously, Tully was the standout rookie in that rotation. And Connelly early coming into the year was forecasted as one or two in terms of rookie standouts in that rotation. But they moved Connelly early to Washington, much like they moved Luis Perales to Washington in the offseason for Jake Bennett in a one for one swap. Jake Bennett this year in his rookie year, 113 innings at a three, six ERA and a FIPA three, five.
00:16:31
Speaker 4: That's interesting to me as well.
00:16:32
Speaker 1: 41% ground ball rate, right on par with major league average, average exit velocity against it was about 87 miles an hour.
00:16:39
Speaker 4: So he induces a lot of weak contact.
00:16:41
Speaker 1: He doesn't strike out a hitter per inning, but Bennett is a fascinating arsenal because it is forcing that doesn't carry very well, kind of blends with a sinker, but the four seam and sinker, he throws both. and they work effectively the same along with the changeup and then occasionally mix in a breaking pitch too.
00:16:59
Speaker 4: Bennett is an.
00:17:00
Speaker 1: Extension machine that will sink it in on lefties hands. He seems like an absolute nightmare in left on left situations. And then righties, you just got to live on the outside part. I love Bennett, to be honest with you. And I think love is a, is a relative term. Like it can be, you know, take it in a whole bunch of different ways. I think Jake Bennett's a major league starter for the next seven to eight years.
00:17:24
Speaker 2: I agree.
00:17:25
Speaker 3: I was critical of this trade when they sent him out for, or when, you know, the Red Sox sent out Perales for Bennett. And yeah, I couldn't be more wrong at this point because this is what the Red Sox do, right?
00:17:40
Speaker 2: They know what to target.
00:17:41
Speaker 3: They know who is going to fit kind of their mold of players that they can maximize.
00:17:46
Speaker 2: And that's a huge, huge, huge asset is so big.
00:17:49
Speaker 3: For, for a front office is to be able to create your own assets, but identifying like the players that you can maximize.
00:17:54
Speaker 1: Right.
00:17:54
Speaker 3: And, and clearly the red Sox have figured that out on the pitching side and Bennett, like.
00:18:00
Speaker 2: Scrap the slider, I think was interesting.
00:18:02
Speaker 3: Like that was one of the first thing that they kind of decided when, when he came in, it was like, let's, let's kind of scrap that, that other slider you were throwing and, and let's look more at this sweeper that you'll just throw left on left here and there. And a, cutter that'll flash to bridge i'm curious if that's going to be a pitch that he throws more but what became abundantly clear is that you know the change up usage went up and the change up shape improved and the fastball shape improved i think that's the biggest thing is like that two seamer it went from like he was able to kill three and a half inches of carry on it and add another two inches of horizontal so it just really had that heaviness to it um that it didn't have before um you mentioned the seven feet of extension that extension paired with like the heaviness running in, like you mentioned Christopher Sanchez, that's kind of a Christopher Sanchez light type of look where it's kind of horizontal, not as ridiculous, but emphasis on light, but that horizontal ish release where it, and with plus plus extension where it's just running in on the hands of lefties and the change up righties, I don't think are going to see until late and it's going to be too late. So, I mean, just making some of those subtle adjustments to be able to get a little bit more I would say just heaviness to the sinker and have the changeup working off of that more effectively. They killed it like three inches on the changeup of Vert as well. So everything's just heavy. And I think that's been a huge part in his success. What's fun with him too is like you'd think that it would just be all ground balls, but it's not because he has the confidence to still buzz that four-seamer up at the top. So I think it's created more vertical separation to where that allows that force humor to be better than it was before. Because now it's like kind of the last thing hitters are thinking about. They're kind of worried about getting lulled into everything running down and being heavy. And then all of a sudden he can buzz 93, 94 up at the top, and it's just going to get by you quicker because it's seven feet of extension from that slot.
00:19:54
Speaker 4: Yep.
00:19:55
Speaker 1: Last marquee starter that we want to talk about here in terms of the underrated is Robert Gasser of the Milwaukee Brewers.
00:20:00
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:20:01
Speaker 1: And Gasser obviously is making a ton of headlines right now. because he just shut the Dodgers down in the NLCS. I'll roll out the red carpet for you on Gasser because I know this is a guy that you have long liked really since the Hader deal. And Gasser is kind of proving on the heels of Tommy John, right? It was Tommy John surgery on the heels of Tommy John that this guy is a legit starting pitching option on the back end for Milwaukee for years to come.
00:20:28
Speaker 3: I also just want to– so I just saw him yesterday and talked to him during Media Day at the World Series. So we did an event in 2024. It was like spring signings and spring training in Arizona with eBay. I think he had to do like three different interviews for that. A long time ago, he said a lot of different things happened. I walk up and also like Media Day is a circus.
00:20:53
Speaker 2: I've never had a player with this kind of memory and recall and I really appreciate it. He looked at me and goes, Arizona. Arizona.
00:20:59
Speaker 3: We did the interview in Arizona, spring signings, whatever. And I was like, dude, that's amazing. Thank you so much for remembering that. So that was really cool. And he's just, he's just an awesome guy. Easy to root for. And, and since then I'm like, all right. So since then you hadn't really thrown that much until this year, right? Like the Tommy John, unfortunately derailed things. We were just chatting about that. And he just said like the, the work in between each, each start, it just ramped up and like coming back from TJ, like that was the focus, like the work between every start. and really, really honing in on that and felt like he got himself in a really good spot. Arsenal-wise, dropped the slot slightly, which I think really helps his stuff work better where everything is horizontal. And so if everything is working east-west and you drop that slot a little bit more horizontal, it's going to allow that to play up. Then the other thing that he mentioned is that cutter that he added. And I think just that pitch to bridge– has been really effective for him as well. And ironically, just him saying like that, just having something straighter to work has helped me a lot from a strike throwing perspective and whatever it's from his slot, the cutter is going to be the straightest thing he throws.
00:22:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's really cool. And he could be this mix and match nightmare.
00:22:14
Speaker 1: And, you know, obviously you look at the Brewer rotation moving forward, it's Mizorowski and Henderson. And if Harrison can recapture any of that magic that he had before the all-star break, he's probably looking as the three for the foreseeable future, but you feel really good about Gasser being a five or a four for the next half decade.
00:22:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think four or five for sure.
00:22:32
Speaker 3: And like the workload hurdle this year was huge and he still looks great in the post season. Like in terms of, he says he feels really fresh. I, And I like that five foot slot is, is it's just.
00:22:44
Speaker 2: So low and horizontal.
00:22:45
Speaker 3: And also by the way, Gasser gets almost seven feet of extension. I think that with the arsenal, like I feel pretty good about him being a four or five for a while. All right.
00:22:53
Speaker 1: We've got some kind of swing men and relievers that we want to talk about in a moment, but arm before that, you want to tell us about our friends at market movers. Yeah.
00:23:00
Speaker 3: I've been using market movers actually through the post-season to try to just see what, what the card market is doing.
00:23:05
Speaker 2: Cause I, it's a sports card and TCG pricing and.
00:23:07
Speaker 3: Collection tracking platform with more than 8 million cards using sales from major marketplaces like eBay, fanatics, collect golden heritage and more. And you can search any player prospect card set grades, et cetera.
00:23:19
Speaker 2: So I always like to use it to see like prospects, of course.
00:23:23
Speaker 3: When they're performing, like as a gun up, is it still too, is it too late for me to get in there and, and pick up some of these players, but sometimes on the big league side, one, I may have already have a ton of cards of this player and, like hey okay he's performing in the playoffs like it's a time for me to maybe just sell a couple to fund the uh the hobby addiction of going to buy other prospect cards and if if you see that chart go up because they have such good visuals and everything i'm like all right might be time you can compare it to other cards too so i'll be like okay well if if this prospect is If Aiden Miller, because of the injuries now, selling for half of Sebastian Walcott, I don't know if that's true. I didn't actually use the platform for that. Then maybe it might be time to get out, and I can compare that way. What I did use the platform for, though, was looking at Junior Caminero cards because I'm like, okay, he's going to the World Series. I know he hasn't had the best postseason, but he's the big homer, and he's set up here to be on the big stage. I have so many Topps Chrome rookie Junior Camineros. I have some Bowman Chrome firsts. Maybe I should sell a couple. I was surprised when I looked at market movers, he's only up about 10%.
00:24:27
Speaker 2: Over the last 90 days. So that told me, hey, I'm just going to hold.
00:24:31
Speaker 3: And that was for his Bowman First Auto PSA 10. I don't even have one of those, but even just looking at like Ace Autos, he's not even up at all. over the last 90 days. And looking at base cards, it's kind of the same story. So that told me, hey, I'm going to hold and I'll just wait for Common Arrow to hit 40 more again next year. And said in the past, I usually would have just assumed, oh, people are crazy about Common Arrow right now. I saw the cards and I don't end up actually selling them for any more than I thought I would have or that I bought them for.
00:24:58
Speaker 2: So that's where it's extremely helpful.
00:25:01
Speaker 3: That on top of the fact that you can just look at every time we put out a top prospect list. And if you're just curious what some of these players are going for you can just search each of them on the market movers app one see their prices and how they compare to others and then to see their price trends from seven days 14 days 30 days 365 days and it'll show you all the recent sales and where they were sold as well and the best part is you get two weeks free plus 20 off for life if you use one word code just baseball j-u-s-t-b-a-s-e-b-a-l-l.
00:25:31
Speaker 4: Nice.
00:25:31
Speaker 2: Or click the link in the episode description. Two weeks free.
00:25:34
Speaker 3: Might as well try it. Check out all the different cards. It's so much fun to just see how the prices have gone up and down. You'll get like a Chris Sale, though. He went up big time during the playoffs. That was fun to just watch the graph go whoop. But then sometimes when teams get bounced, players get bounced, you just watch it go way back down. DePaulo was like... straight up it's like the sarah lang's we um so like it that's where it's fun to just kind of see and then you start digging around if you're a crazy collector like me and saying wait i might have some of those and uh but the other side is like i see where caminero is not doing right now and i say well maybe after the postseason i'll just i'll just pick some up obviously if he wins the world series i think that chart's gonna go we but yeah we think the brewers are probably gonna win and this made me kind of open my eyes to maybe i should be picking up some more caminero.
00:26:20
Speaker 1: Yeah What a world arm Layton can't spell the name of his own company.
00:26:23
Speaker 4: That's tough. B-A-S-C-B-A-L-L. That's how you spell baseball, dude.
00:26:29
Speaker 2: Did I miss an A in there or something?
00:26:31
Speaker 4: No, no, no. You stumbled over it.
00:26:33
Speaker 2: It's tricky.
00:26:34
Speaker 4: It's all caps.
00:26:35
Speaker 2: It's hard to read all caps.
00:26:37
Speaker 4: J-U-S-T-B-A-S-C-B-A-L-L. Yeah.
00:26:40
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:26:41
Speaker 2: And that's two weeks free plus 20% for life.
00:26:44
Speaker 4: Yeah. That's badass. All right. Let's keep on moving here with these arms.
00:26:49
Speaker 1: And we kind of transitioned into the swingman version of this. Guy that was a full-time starter for the Minnesota Twins, did make two appearances out of the pen. Connor Prelip. Prelip, 25-year-old, was the second-round pick back in 22 out of the University of Alabama. Prelip, 126 innings in his maiden season of Major League Baseball at a 4.9 ERA. The FIP was at 3.7. But Connor Prelip is an interesting one to me, to be honest with you, man.
00:27:15
Speaker 4: Like, I don't necessarily....
00:27:19
Speaker 1: Dig it totally um the slider was really good the curveball was really good but conor prelip has some fastball issues i'd be curious to see how he can tinker with his fastball to make it a little bit better because that fastball was not only dead zoning but it was hit very very hard in major league baseball this year.
00:27:38
Speaker 3: Yes very fair the number one reason why i wanted him on here though is if you told me you're getting 125 and two-thirds innings at the big league level and really 100 and 40 innings almost total this season from Connor Prelip. I wouldn't even care what the ERA was because of how unfortunate his injury history has been, right? I mean, we've talked about him like, I think since 2022, he'd like, okay, he was hurt at Alabama. We barely saw him throw in college. It was like 28 innings there. But this guy's nasty, right? Like, but I can't wait to see him unleashed. And then each year there was a different injury that really held him out. And I mean, we didn't see him throw in 2022. In 2023, he threw, I think it was six and two thirds innings in 2024, he threw 23 innings. Then 2025, we finally get like 82 out of him. And then 2026, you get to this, you know, 130, I think it was like four and a third plateau.
00:28:31
Speaker 2: So that was extremely encouraging.
00:28:33
Speaker 3: Now, what does it ultimately look like is going to be the next step? Cause I think, you know, the fastball in the past had been a little bit more lively and And I think when you just deal with all the different injuries that Prelip has dealt with, like maybe it just doesn't quite come out the same and that's going to be.
00:28:48
Speaker 2: Something to monitor.
00:28:48
Speaker 3: But I was impressed with, you know, at least enough of the ability to throw strikes. You mentioned the breaking balls. Like, I think those are pretty darn good pitches. But yeah, how is he going to work around that fastball is going to be the question. Maybe it's going to be more usage of that sinker. and finding a little bit more arm side action there, but that got crushed as well. So yeah, that's going to be the big thing is, is trying to find a way to work around that fastball.
00:29:14
Speaker 2: Does it come with maybe just more view? Oh, that comes back with him as he just continues to, to, you know, get stronger.
00:29:21
Speaker 3: Or is it just trying to find a way to create more vert or, you know, get more arm side action on that, on that sinker. That's ultimately going to be what defines things for him. But I do think with the quality of the curveballs and at least the sheer velocity, their quality of breaking balls in the sheer velocity he's at least a back end of the rotation type of guy now he at least showed that he can he's taking a big step forward and handling the workload required of that role.
00:29:44
Speaker 1: Yeah no doubt about that the breaking balls were a heck of a lot better than I think I was anticipating personally but yeah the fastball like I for me I just have to see the fastball get better than borderline unusable at points like when you got runners at second and third and one man gone i know what i'm getting if i'm in the box right i'm getting nothing breaking balls because the fastball i'm going to do some damage.
00:30:05
Speaker 3: On yeah and the last thing i'll say so that's short on delivery sometimes like it just results in a fastball that doesn't quite it kind of becomes arrowish and yeah it seems to be the case there so we'll see but What do you feel like back in the rotation guy with those breaking balls?
00:30:20
Speaker 2: Yeah. And it's, it's still at least it's 95 and in change.
00:30:25
Speaker 3: Like if it's going to be straight, let it be 95.
00:30:29
Speaker 4: We've talked a lot about five starters today, to be honest with you.
00:30:32
Speaker 2: Hey, underrated seasons, baby.
00:30:34
Speaker 4: Underrated seasons, man.
00:30:35
Speaker 1: We're talking a lot about five starters, but I want to take you to one of my favorite guys in major league baseball this year, because of the rule five element and the, whatever you need coach element, Spencer Miles was a freaking dog this year for the Toronto Blue Jays, and it was an incredibly underwhelming season for Toronto.
00:30:53
Speaker 4: I get that.
00:30:54
Speaker 1: This season may have flown under the radar. Spencer Miles threw 96 innings at a 2-6 ERA with a 2-6 FIP as well. He faced 388 hitters in 96 innings and allowed five home runs. He only walked 25 guys.
00:31:05
Speaker 2: He punched out 93.
00:31:05
Speaker 4: He throws a sinker at 96. Spencer Miles is really freaking good. And you want to talk about best rule five finds in recent memory. Like Shane Smith was an all-star with Chicago, but Shane Smith didn't really pitch at all for the White Sox this year. Liam Hicks was a nails rule five find for the Marlins. They turn him into a Tampa Bay Ray and they turn them into three prospects. I think Spencer Miles is one of the better rule five finds in recent memory, to be honest with you, it feels like he can be a, whatever you need coach kind of guy for the foreseeable future for John Schneider in Toronto.
00:31:50
Speaker 2: And he's one that we could have done. I think you could have had said arm.
00:31:54
Speaker 3: I need 500 names of rule five eligible. But now if I, I would have got it from somebody else. Cause if you're dug around enough, somebody would have told us, Hey, this guy's on team radars, but like, if it was my job for an organization to source and I don't have scouts boots on the ground, how am I getting to Spencer miles? What, what exposure would I've had to Spencer miles, a 2022 draft pick that before, did.
00:32:22
Speaker 2: You touch on this? And how many innings did he.
00:32:24
Speaker 4: Throw before he threw? He threw zero.
00:32:27
Speaker 1: Like, I mean, zero, this guy threw in college, 145 innings, his draft year out of Missouri, 70 innings at a six and a half ERA.
00:32:37
Speaker 4: He throws seven and a third innings in 2022.
00:32:40
Speaker 1: He doesn't pitch in 23, comes back in 24, throws seven and a third, and then throws eight and two thirds in the fall league in 25. He was dealing with a variety of injuries. So this guy in his minor league time threw just shy of 15 innings, and you can account for nine innings in the fall league as well. We're talking about 25 innings of a professional sample for Spencer Miles before being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
00:33:03
Speaker 2: 23 back surgery.
00:33:06
Speaker 3: It says right flexor and Tommy John surgery in 24, 25. He, he threw more endings in the Arizona fall league than he did at any other level, which was, as you mentioned, eight and two thirds, really good endings. And I think that's where he turned heads. I know it sounds crazy.
00:33:23
Speaker 2: Struck out 12 who walked one. And I think that's where the blue Jay said, let's take a shot on this guy.
00:33:29
Speaker 3: Right. And I kind of, Kind of like that Rule 5 approach. Obviously, if you want me to Naz Nunez and whatever, I get it too. But shoot for the ceiling of this... Hey, it may not work.
00:33:40
Speaker 2: He's barely pitched.
00:33:41
Speaker 3: But he clearly has a higher ceiling than a lot of the other depthy arms that we're looking for.
00:33:46
Speaker 2: And Toronto was right in that regard.
00:33:49
Speaker 3: The fact that he made starts, he picked up saves, he bridged to the bullpen from short starts.
00:33:55
Speaker 2: He did it all. And he was damn good in all the different roles.
00:33:59
Speaker 3: I'm curious what his role is going to be, because I think the big thing for the Blue Jays this year is they wanted to just build him up and get him healthy. And I mean, this is a career high in innings. Now you hope next year you can throw 120, 130, like lazy analysis. But if you look at Spencer Miles, the VAC page, he's top notch in almost everything except for chase and whip, which I think is interesting, but it doesn't really matter because. He's so consistently in the zone. He is so consistently getting weak contact and on the ground. Like the average exit velocity against him was 87 miles an hour, and then the ground ball rate was 51%. So it's weak on the ground. You're going to probably do pretty well, and that's why the expected batting average was so low. Based on that arsenal, you'd think that this could be kind of a ground ball rolling– I mean, who knows? Could be middle rotation type. But also, did some of his stuff maybe play up because it was shorter spurts for the most part? Like, is this the role that he should just always be in? That's the big question. But I think what's abundantly clear here is that you have a really good Swiss Army knife piece for you for a long time moving forward. I just think with the quality of the fastballs, as long as they don't degrade too much being stretched out further, it's worth a thought. But I also don't want to– if it ain't broke, don't fix it, right? And you have a really good– piece that can fill several different roles.
00:35:20
Speaker 1: Yeah no doubt i think it's best served in a swiss army knife role to be honest with you as opposed to a tried and true starting pitcher a couple more relievers before we say see you here aj blue ball of the houston astros is the first of three relievers that we want to talk about here blue ball was a guy that i thought was going to start games to be honest with you like he appeared in 11 games and made three starts It was 11 appearances and 32 innings and 25 for Houston. And he was really good. This year was really good as well. 64 appearances is kind of a long relief option. 96 innings at a three, seven ERA FIP indicated a little bit of tire.
00:35:54
Speaker 4: Good luck for him.
00:35:55
Speaker 1: But AJ blue ball walked 11% of guys, Kate about 23% of guys and did not roll ground balls. He's a fly ball guy, but it's just a very funky look from AJ blue ball.
00:36:06
Speaker 3: We always talk about how pitching is just, you know, something could change so quickly, right? Blue ball could show up next year throwing, you know, with a, with a cutter at 92 and maybe the fastball ticks up and yeah, there's a, these curve balls, a pitchy trust more. And all of a sudden it's like, okay, this is a different picture. But going into last year, I thought from what we saw, I agree. I thought, okay, this could be a rotation piece for them. And I was excited about blue ball. And this year, and then the season he had ended up being solid, but I think a lot of what you showed was still like, this might be a guy that's best served in shorter spurts where he's throwing 96, 97 instead of 94, 95. And then, you know, really relying on the sweeper and change up, which are both solid pitches though. But I do wonder if this is another picture that's just better in that Swiss army knife role. I think he can be really good in it, but it might make more sense for blue ball in that role. I think if you don't get the pictures that you were expecting and you want to test it out and see, By all means, I think Bubak could end up settling into a back in the rotation type.
00:37:10
Speaker 2: Of type of role for them.
00:37:13
Speaker 3: But I think right now, just to get the most out of that stuff, like I don't know if he has a huge margin for error. And I kind of like him in that multi inning relief type of spot that he was mostly deployed in and seemed to be pretty effective in.
00:37:27
Speaker 4: No, I think I'm totally with you there. And I agree. The Astros have a lot of pitching questions.
00:37:31
Speaker 1: They have a lot of questions in general that they have to answer with a new GM and a new manager as well, whenever they decide to make those hires, but Godspeed to them.
00:37:40
Speaker 4: And AJ blue ball will be a big piece for that movie.
00:37:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
00:37:44
Speaker 1: Two more guys and save the best for last, probably two future closers here that we're going to talk about. First one in San Diego is Brad Gley Rodriguez, and he doesn't have the opportunity to close games right now because he had Mason Miller and Brad Gley was a low on the totem pole coming into this year and slowly, but surely climbed the totem pole. Jason Adam gets hurt. Bradley moves, moves up a spot. Estrada gets hurt. Bradley moves up a spot. I think we could have viewed coming into this year, David Morgan and Bradley Rodriguez as a toss up. Bradley moves up a spot. He's clearly that guy. Yuki Matsui was really good this year, but Bradley is better. Like you talk about ascending the ranks of the Padre bullpen. that night shift turned into working backwards Miller in the ninth more a hone in the eighth and Bradley Rodriguez in the seventh, because Bradley Rodriguez through 74 innings at a two, two ERA and 68 appearances.
00:38:42
Speaker 4: He allowed six homers and Kate 81 guys.
00:38:44
Speaker 2: It's disgusting. And he he's also like, he's still just 22.
00:38:50
Speaker 3: That's what I'm so excited to just see as he continues to develop and mature, but it's clearly already ahead of his years. him and Morgan were two of the guys that we were talking about when we were, I know the Padre system is never going to be quite loaded because of the way it unloads, but the, the two prospects that like we ranked pretty high, even as relievers, because it was like this, I feel real good about this guy, at least grabbing the seventh and holding it down for a long time, especially with Rodriguez.
00:39:17
Speaker 2: And I mean, he has just shown that.
00:39:19
Speaker 3: And then some, the, the fastball quality to pair with the, the just disgusting change up that he has. it just creates such a tough look for hitters, man. And that's all he really needs. It's been really fun to watch. And you mentioned, like, the closer eventually thing as well. Like, I'm trying to think of the last time we've seen a reliever because a lot of times it's like, okay, guys that are this nasty– at 22 years old are probably still continuing to try as a starter. Like when's the last time, and maybe I'm being short-sighted and forgetting something, but like when's the last time we've had a 22 year old reliever, this already like guaranteed to be good at high leverage.
00:39:57
Speaker 4: It's a great question. I'm sure there's someone like, cause.
00:40:01
Speaker 1: I'm sure Fuentes, Fuentes is like, we're still kicking around the idea of starting though.
00:40:06
Speaker 2: He probably will.
00:40:08
Speaker 4: He probably will.
00:40:09
Speaker 1: So like we're, we're kicking around this idea and it's like, all right, Yeah, that's a good question.
00:40:16
Speaker 2: Comments. Let us know in the comments. There's definitely an answer.
00:40:19
Speaker 4: And there's an answer in the last five to ten years. I know it, too.
00:40:23
Speaker 2: But point being, it's never that common.
00:40:26
Speaker 3: And, I mean, this big reason why, 70% strike rate on a changeup that he throws 40%.
00:40:31
Speaker 2: Of the time that is a plus-plus pitch.
00:40:34
Speaker 3: And then that changeup gets 10 inches of vertical separation and another 10 inches of horizontal separation from that fastball.
00:40:42
Speaker 2: Like, good luck.
00:40:44
Speaker 3: And then he's got the two-seamer as well. So you get the two-seamer, four-seamer changeup. And then the other aspect, the last thing I'll mention with Rodriguez is.
00:40:52
Speaker 2: He fills up the zone.
00:40:53
Speaker 3: Usually these stuffy young arms that are already relegated to reliever, it's like the Teodo experience. You're like, oh, he hasn't even thrown enough strikes for it to matter or whatever.
00:41:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, he is. He's going to fill it up. And he's absolutely filled it up.
00:41:07
Speaker 3: Six and a half percent walk rate this past year. He's going to close games. I don't know how soon because of where he's at, like you said, but.
00:41:14
Speaker 2: It's going to close games. All right.
00:41:16
Speaker 1: Last but not least, Brandon Garcia in the same division in the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. Brandon Garcia was an interesting case because he and Ashton Izzy were acquired for Josh Naylor at the deadline in 25. Garcia was a starting pitcher at that point. I think you were kind of lukewarm on the idea of Garcia because it's like, ah, is he a back-end starter? All of a sudden, he turns into this diabolical reliever and a guy that does look like a future closer.
00:41:41
Speaker 4: He got five saves this year for Arizona.
00:41:43
Speaker 1: 51 innings at a one 90 RA three homers against him in 51 innings. And he came 60 to 11 walks. He is a left on left nightmare for opposing hitters, which is.
00:41:55
Speaker 3: Why I'm so glad that, you know, they made the transition to said like, let's, let's max you out here out of the bullpen.
00:42:01
Speaker 2: And Oh my gosh, like that slot.
00:42:03
Speaker 3: It's like 17 degrees, like 17 degree arm angle. And then everything works perfectly. It's the gasser conversation just to another degree where you are just getting everything sweeping across.
00:42:18
Speaker 2: The thing that's fascinating to me about Garcia is you'd think sinker, sweeper, cutter in the middle.
00:42:25
Speaker 3: And from 17 degrees, okay, even my mom would know just watching him throw, that guy's not– lefties are not hitting that guy.
00:42:34
Speaker 2: But the fact that righties didn't hit him either I think is fascinating.
00:42:40
Speaker 3: To be working that way where most of your stuff is breaking, like your sweep is going to be breaking towards righties.
00:42:46
Speaker 2: Singer, of course, is going to be working away.
00:42:47
Speaker 3: And I think that's just why it's ended up working well enough is how much separation between the two.
00:42:52
Speaker 2: But, okay, lefties hit 146. Kind of expected that. Righties hit 165. 434 OPS against lefties. 496 against righties. There's not even really splits. And I think the cutter went a long way in that. I mean, a 94-mile-an-hour cutter.
00:43:07
Speaker 3: That you probably don't know whether it's the sinker or the sweeper until it's.
00:43:11
Speaker 2: Too late if you're a righty, and that really helps.
00:43:14
Speaker 3: But, I mean, the sheer velocity at 97 with the action that he's able to generate, I'm really excited to see what he can do too. And, like, this guy's probably going to close out games too, I imagine, if he has this type of platoon-neutral situation. Like, what else do you really need to see from Garcia? It's 97. It's 16 inches arm side with the two-seamer. And then it's, you know, another 12 inches glove side with the sweeper. And then you have the cutter to bridge right up the middle.
00:43:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, man. I don't know.
00:43:49
Speaker 1: I think they could committee this where it's like Garcia and Murillo for the foreseeable future. That's a diabolical one-two punch on the back of a bullpen.
00:43:57
Speaker 2: Last note, and I don't know if there's anything to this.
00:44:00
Speaker 3: I'd have to talk to people smarter than me, but Ashby doesn't get any extension, right? He's more over the top, but Ashby doesn't get any extension. Garcia doesn't get any extension. And they both throw really hard with nasty breaking balls. And I just wonder if like the no extension thing actually works in their favor, where with Garcia, it looks like he's throwing it from behind his body in a different way. It's behind his body, then it comes out from the side. With Ashby, it's like behind his body and then it comes out over his shoulders. And I just wonder if that almost makes it harder for these hitters to pick it up.
00:44:29
Speaker 4: I bet, yes.
00:44:30
Speaker 1: The other thing you give it like two more feet of room to break, like the breaking balls, you give yourself two more feet.
00:44:40
Speaker 4: And I think that's a huge element of this.
00:44:42
Speaker 1: We're like glass now is a unicorn because he gets seven and a half feet of extension and he could still snap off the breaking ball. But naturally you just give your pitch like more time to move more space to, to move in air. Like as simple as that sounds.
00:44:58
Speaker 3: And to that point, hitters were three for 63. Against his sweeper, Garcia's sweeper this past year. That's an 0-48 batting average with 39 strikeouts.
00:45:10
Speaker 4: That plays.
00:45:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, that'll work. And I think the big reason why is that sinker. Average launch angle on the sinker, 10 degrees. This kid is special. Excited to watch more of Garcia as well. That'll do it for the pitching rookie review. Hopefully next week.
00:45:24
Speaker 3: We will have the team top prospect lists done. Very much been plugging away at that. World Series has been a little bit of a detour. And by the way, we're out here covering all of those games. So stay tuned with us on the just baseball show live after every single ball game as well. And then I'm going to be at all the games. So stay tuned on social and stuff like that as well. As always, thank you for listening. Have a great weekend, enjoy the world series, and we will talk prospects with you. Maybe check in on the fall league too next week.
