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Hello, everybody.
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Welcome to the Buckeye Weekly Podcast. I'm Tony Gerdeman, here
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as always with Tom or Tom.
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How's it going?
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Well, Tony, we got to do our very favorite thing,
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which is cram ourselves into coach class airline seats and
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fly across these United States of America.
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I know that was something that I was looking forward
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to doing all week, and boy, lived up to the billing.
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Lived up to the billing, watching all week as, like,
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tell nobody sitting next to me, tell nobody sitting next
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to me all the way up until like, that's my seat. Like, right.
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I'm right in there.
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And then the three of us now just in this row,
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just look at each other. Like it's only going to
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be five hours. How bad can it possibly be?
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Yeah. I love, love to fly. I love to fly
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across the country and we get to take a red
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eye on the way home. But we did that. We
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did that one to ourselves. So that's not it. That
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one's on purpose. That's fine. Ohio state probably also, you know,
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they'll get home a little bit earlier than we will, but.
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Um, We'll see how that fight goes for them. So
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as we get going, go ahead and throw your questions
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in there. We will get to them. We'll click secret
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chats first, as you guys know. We'll let the questions
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build up and get to those. But the main story
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here is the quarterback situation. Friday did not name a
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starter on Tuesday.
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Didn't he? Or Wednesday. Didn't he?
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And even Friday or Thursday, speaking with the assembled media
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at the hotel where they were checking in, and L.A.
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Declined to name a starter.
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So, Chalmers, there's absolutely no way to know who is
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going to start this game other than the fact that
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Ryan Day also said on Tuesday or Wednesday. I think
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things have progressed this week similar to the way they
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have in the past. So I'll just kind of leave
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it at that.
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And I tweeted that out.
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People were talking about, like, JT Barrett and Cardale Jones,
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that kind of thing.
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No. Literally the last couple of months where you had
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Luke Fahey number one in front of JV and St.
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Clair.
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And that was the thing that Ryan Day has always
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talked about through this entire battle. And don't forget, Luke
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Fahey was ahead of Tavion St. Clair before he had
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the injury to Julian St. So that is still the
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situation as we believe it to be.
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Yeah, I think there's... I don't think we have ever
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wavered on that at all at any point in this...
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Since he went down, frankly, since they were up by
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a million points on Ball State and... Luke Fahey was
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the first guy to go in after. That was kind
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of like the, well, that's it. They've told you.
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All they need to tell you right there. So, which is,
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you know, I don't think there's any real question here.
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I think everyone out here is sort of recognizing there's
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not really any serious question here. Lincoln Riley was asked
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about it at his press conference, his Zoom press conference
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on Thursday.
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You can hear his answer to that.
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We dropped that as a bonus episode in the Buckeye
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Weekly feed at the Buckeyes Tomorrow Morning podcast feed on
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Thursday afternoon or Friday morning, one or the other.
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Time is a flat circle when you travel cross country, but.
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You, he, he was asked about it and he said like,
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you gotta, you mean you got to prepare for both guys.
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I don't know how different the preparation is. One runs
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a little more. One's arm is probably, I mean.
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Luke Fahey's got a plenty strong arm, but yeah, one
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is a little, one's a little bigger. One's a little faster.
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So you're preparing, I guess, for a little bit for both.
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And it's, yeah.
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Cause it's funny because you look at Luke Fahey and
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he can scramble around and get out of the pocket, but,
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Tavion St.
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Clair, whenever we've seen him, gets out of the pocket
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pretty quickly, maybe for different reasons. Yeah.
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You know, things are, you know, moving pictures and movies. So, like,
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they'll both run, perhaps for different reasons. So, like, you
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still have to factor that in.
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Yeah.
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But also, you've got all week to prepare for a
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quarterback or two quarterbacks who have less than 100 total
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snaps between them in college.
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So, you've got time to do this. And so, why
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would you not be like, well, we're not going to
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bother looking at Tavion St. Clair. Mm-hmm. Yeah, no, I
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think you have to be prepared just because you have
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to be prepared. But I don't think anyone is under any.
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Really misapprehension about who's going to be the starting quarterback
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for Ohio State.
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And then the question is, okay, so what does that
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change for Ohio State? Because, boy, he's not.
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Going to be as accurate as Julian Sane. He doesn't
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have as much experience as Julian Sane.
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He doesn't have.
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He probably is.
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Going to have a significantly slimmed down playbook from what
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Julian Sands has been operating with. I don't think when
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he goes to the line, he's going to have nearly
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as much leeway to change plays at the line and
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get them in the right play, which means sometimes you're
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not going to be in the right play.
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That's the one side of the coin. The other side
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of the.
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Coin is, boy, it sure does bring an interesting dynamic
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to the run game now that I don't know if
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USC really knows how much it's going to.
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And, you know, I'm not saying that we know. I'm
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not saying anyone outside of.
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The Ohio State program really knows for sure right now
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how much that's going to change things. And the other
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thing that Ross Fulton brought up this week on one
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of the shows that I did with him was his
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ability to just sort of like manipulate his body in
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the pocket to have, you know, the difference between a
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pass rusher running.
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And smacking you directly square.
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On the side or on the front, or a pass
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rusher just kind of like helplessly flying by as you
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just sort of dip, dodge, dart, and whatever the other
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D was in dodgeball.
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They dodge twice. Do they dodge? Okay. But there's five,
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so you forgot duck. I think I said, okay. Dip, dive, dodge.
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That's Oregon. That's next week. You said dodge twice. I
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like dodging. So then, yeah, with the running game, the
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aspect of it, just pull it a couple times.
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Yeah.
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He's got that ability to pick up yards that way.
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And knowing that the running game is going to have
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to be a huge help here, that that's a way
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to make that. One more thing for USC to worry
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about is the quarterback run, because we haven't seen Julian
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saying take that maybe twice in his career or so.
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So it's not really a concern. It's like, well, if
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he does it, then we'll worry about it at that.
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And here, they can't just come crashing down. And if
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they do, they're going to have to, Luke Fahey's going
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to have to make them pay for it. He has
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to be confident enough, and he has to be able
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to be a good reader. You see some quarterbacks, I
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think they guess on some of the read options. He
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has to be a good reader on the read option.
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He has to be a good reader on the RPO, PPO.
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Ross has talked, you guys have talked about where it's,
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you know, pass-pass option.
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Either it's out here or it's out there. You got
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to get those good pre-snap reads.
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And, you know, I wonder how much that has played
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into who has won the job, those sorts of things,
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the correct reads. Because with as many reads as they
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have in this offense, if you can't do that, then
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they've got to change everything.
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And then it just becomes, I'm not going to say
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Michigan's offense. Yeah.
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But there's some things where it's half field. You just
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roll out and you've got two receivers or three receivers
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to read and half the defenders.
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So.
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I do wonder how much, how simplified this is, how
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much they've had to simplify it. Or is it, do
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they go to the quarterback who has the most operational
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ability of the entire office? Not that they're going to
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run it all, but who can run more of it?
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Yeah, that that's, I saw urban Meyer this week say,
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don't expect any throws in the middle of the field.
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I think that's probably a little overstated, you know, which
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I get it.
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That's where, that's where bad stuff happens generally. what you're
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throwing into traffic.
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So maybe, but I, I just feel like it's going
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to be simplified, but it's not going to be, you know,
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baby's first college football playbook. Like it's, he's been here
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for a while. He is where he is because he
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has a pretty good grasp on the playbook. You know,
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this is, that's a part of the why behind why
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the true three star true freshman is starting over the
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five star who's been here for another year and who
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spent a lot of time around the program even before.
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That, like that's, that's a big part of this story.
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So I think they're going to put him, they're going
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to try and put him in positions to have to
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make a couple quick decisions. You know, one, I'm going
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to say.
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It's, there's a lot of one to go probably with.
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With this where, you know, you put Jeremiah Smith on
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one side and you try and make him a real
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easy read and then, okay, Devin McEwen or Chris Henry Jr.
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whoever's on the other side.
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And then, or, you know, you're rolling them out, like
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you said, and you're running like a, you know, sort
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of layers kind of thing, levels. I, I think they're
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going to do a lot to just sort of make
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it relatively simple.
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And then it's just one, two. And then if you
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need to run, you need to run. That's okay. That's that's.
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And if you need to throw the ball away, that's
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okay too.
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Don't, Don't take a sack. Don't get yourself behind the sticks.
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Don't get yourself in positions where it's a very predictable
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passing situation because that's where USC could really tee off
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on things, and we'll probably get into that when we
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talk about the offensive line later. But the run piece
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of this is interesting because you watched, there was another
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one of the plays that Ross had on one of
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the shows earlier this week where it was a play
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down in the red zone, and they handed off to,
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I think it was Bo Jackson, And Bo Jackson immediately
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gets swallowed up by three guys. And if you look
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at the all-22 angle at the wide shot, if Julian
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Sane had kept that ball, he probably could have run
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all the way to Columbus and not gotten.
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Touched by an Indiana defender. Now they've got to respect that.
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The interesting question is, okay, you look at last week's
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USC-Wisconsin game.
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Boy, howdy, were they crashing down on that running back
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an awful lot.
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And the quarterback was just taking nice, easy pulls and going, well,
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all right, I will take the I will take the
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eight to 12 yards.
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Sure. No problem. And he's a known runner. Yeah.
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And so like to not respect that at all is
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pretty shocking and maybe played in parts to their 21, 24,
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seven loss there. And so then do they learn from that?
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Do they wait to be burned by it? I think you,
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you wait for the freshman to burn you.
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Yeah.
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You know, before you start respecting him. Because, boy, just
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go back to the 2009 USC game where Iowa State really,
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really respected, overly respected Matt Barkley and that USC offense.
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Make them earn it.
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Yeah.
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And I think that's what USC's defense needs to do
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here is make them earn it. So then, you know,
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what is a realistic expectation for Luke Fahey in this game?
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And Tom, if we go back to the last time
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a freshman quarterback was out there for an extended period
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of time, Lincoln Kittle's If I set the baseline at
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six for 17 and 86 yards passing.
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I mean, Lincoln Keenholz in that game was not, you know,
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he had not been the second string quarterback for the
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vast majority of the season.
246
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He was not the second string quarterback.
247
00:11:03.870 --> 00:11:08.450
Until after Kyle McCord announced he was leaving. He also
248
00:11:08.490 --> 00:11:10.129
had not shown up for spring ball. He showed up
249
00:11:10.190 --> 00:11:13.039
in June because he wanted to go through the season.
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00:11:13.700 --> 00:11:16.120
bowl sports year and hit full high school senior year
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00:11:16.139 --> 00:11:19.279
with his, at his high school. So, so there was really,
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00:11:19.320 --> 00:11:21.340
at that point, there was no expectation. He was the
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00:11:21.379 --> 00:11:23.200
third stringer, but there was no expectation that he was
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going to play. So he kind of get away.
255
00:11:26.559 --> 00:11:27.159
Oh yeah, fine.
256
00:11:27.460 --> 00:11:29.779
And, and then when you, all of a sudden you're
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00:11:29.799 --> 00:11:31.299
the second stringer and all of a sudden, boom, you're
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00:11:31.320 --> 00:11:33.279
the first stringer in the like first quarter of the
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00:11:33.299 --> 00:11:37.029
game that, that he was, I mean, the coaching staff
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00:11:37.070 --> 00:11:39.509
said afterwards that he was not prepared. Like they threw
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00:11:39.549 --> 00:11:43.259
him into a very unfair position and, I don't think
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00:11:43.340 --> 00:11:46.480
this is nearly the same thing. Fahey's been here since
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00:11:46.519 --> 00:11:50.200
this spring. Fahey has shown, like, Lincoln Keenholz was the
264
00:11:50.220 --> 00:11:53.779
third-string quarterback because there was not a other candidate to
265
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be the third-string quarterback that year. Luke Fahey's the second-string quarterback,
266
00:11:58.320 --> 00:11:59.820
or entered the year as the second-string quarterback because he
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00:11:59.840 --> 00:12:02.100
was the better option ahead of a guy who was
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00:12:02.559 --> 00:12:05.259
more highly touted and had more seniority over him.
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00:12:05.519 --> 00:12:06.940
And a guy who had started a Big Ten game
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before in Justin Martin.
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Yep.
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Yeah, yeah.
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00:12:09.929 --> 00:12:13.350
So he has moved himself up this pecking order. He's
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00:12:13.490 --> 00:12:16.230
earned what he's gotten. So I definitely do not think
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this is quite a Lincoln-Keenhole situation.
276
00:12:18.129 --> 00:12:20.070
So then let's go back to the last three times
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a true freshman has started a game at quarterback.
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00:12:23.409 --> 00:12:24.929
I did that go all the way back to Arch Leaster.
279
00:12:25.190 --> 00:12:27.500
Different times. I can tell you that one didn't go
280
00:12:27.529 --> 00:12:30.539
great either. So that would skew the numbers here greatly.
281
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I think they got shut out and he threw four
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or five picks.
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00:12:33.899 --> 00:12:34.679
Yeah, yeah.
284
00:12:34.759 --> 00:12:39.419
So Kyle O'Connor in 2021. Braxton Miller in 2011. Terrell
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00:12:39.460 --> 00:12:41.919
Pryor in 2008. I'm going to give you their averages.
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00:12:42.440 --> 00:12:43.500
We'll go over under on those.
287
00:12:43.659 --> 00:12:47.509
Okay. Before Luke Fahey. Nine and a half completions. Over.
288
00:12:47.509 --> 00:12:53.409
15 and a half attempts. Over. Yeah. 180 yards passing.
289
00:12:53.570 --> 00:12:56.009
Now, this is viewed by the 319 yards found on
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00:12:56.029 --> 00:12:58.070
the court against Akron. And the thing is, this is
291
00:12:58.240 --> 00:12:58.929
against Akron.
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00:12:59.240 --> 00:12:59.840
This is against.
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00:13:00.490 --> 00:13:03.539
Colorado, who was very bad in 2011, and Troy in 2008,
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00:13:03.529 --> 00:13:08.399
where Troy Pryor set the record with four touchdown passes. So,
295
00:13:08.399 --> 00:13:16.039
180 yards is the most realistic, difficult number of this group.
296
00:13:16.860 --> 00:13:20.740
And so, what do you think?
297
00:13:20.740 --> 00:13:25.940
180 feels really very close. 180.5, just to be clear. Okay, yeah, well,
298
00:13:26.519 --> 00:13:31.100
I wasn't going to call for a push, so... 180 feels...
299
00:13:33.620 --> 00:13:35.639
It feels pretty right on.
300
00:13:37.659 --> 00:13:40.580
And I looked at the forecast right before we started,
301
00:13:40.620 --> 00:13:42.320
and the forecast seems like the rain is sort of
302
00:13:42.360 --> 00:13:44.480
sliding back a little bit, so maybe it's not going
303
00:13:44.500 --> 00:13:48.220
to be rainy. I'm going to say over just because
304
00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:50.440
there's a guy wearing number four in the way on
305
00:13:50.899 --> 00:13:54.960
offense for Ohio State on Saturday, so you assume he
306
00:13:55.000 --> 00:13:58.320
may just sort of push the Jeremiah Smith do something
307
00:13:58.340 --> 00:14:01.419
cool button where There's a lot of yard after catch
308
00:14:01.460 --> 00:14:02.659
that happened at some point.
309
00:14:03.159 --> 00:14:05.220
I'll say over, but I'm going to say that with
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00:14:05.299 --> 00:14:06.379
a little bit of hesitance.
311
00:14:06.460 --> 00:14:08.940
Yeah, and boy, it will be interesting to see how
312
00:14:08.980 --> 00:14:11.629
much the quick stuff there is for Jeremiah because a
313
00:14:13.029 --> 00:14:14.429
couple of games ago, that's where he scored his two
314
00:14:14.450 --> 00:14:18.309
big touchdowns. A couple of 30-plus yard run after catch.
315
00:14:19.590 --> 00:14:20.730
He'll want to do some quick stuff there.
316
00:14:20.750 --> 00:14:22.429
I think the running backs are also going to be involved,
317
00:14:22.649 --> 00:14:25.960
but it's not a great UFC secondary, and it's young
318
00:14:26.240 --> 00:14:29.379
in parts as well. Two and a half touchdowns is the.
319
00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:35.100
Line here. Two touchdown passes. Two and a half touchdown passes.
320
00:14:35.159 --> 00:14:39.029
I'm going to go under that. I think that's probably.
321
00:14:39.049 --> 00:14:42.970
I think it's entirely possible that he does that, that
322
00:14:43.490 --> 00:14:47.129
he gets to three or more. And I think it's possible,
323
00:14:47.149 --> 00:14:50.149
but likely, that they score, as an offense, three or
324
00:14:50.190 --> 00:14:50.950
more touchdowns.
325
00:14:51.049 --> 00:14:54.240
But I'm going to say... I'm going to say under
326
00:14:54.539 --> 00:14:56.379
two and a half touchdowns. I think it is.
327
00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:59.240
Interesting that all three guys drew at least two touchdowns.
328
00:14:59.620 --> 00:15:02.240
Kyle LaCourte drew two touchdown passes. Braxton Miller, of his
329
00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:04.980
five completions, two were touchdowns. He was five of 13
330
00:15:04.980 --> 00:15:07.899
against Colorado. And then, of course, Terrell Pryor had four touchdowns.
331
00:15:08.799 --> 00:15:12.159
Only Braxton was the only one who had thrown one
332
00:15:12.179 --> 00:15:15.200
interception in his debut start. So I'll set the line
333
00:15:15.240 --> 00:15:15.340
at 0.5.
334
00:15:15.320 --> 00:15:19.529
So yes or no. All the interceptions for Luke Fahey.
335
00:15:19.789 --> 00:15:20.450
I'll say yes.
336
00:15:20.610 --> 00:15:22.990
I mean, it feels like you're going to have, it's
337
00:15:23.029 --> 00:15:25.490
a true freshman making his first career start on the road.
338
00:15:26.190 --> 00:15:28.389
I don't think it's going to be a particularly hostile atmosphere,
339
00:15:28.450 --> 00:15:30.169
but don't worry, we'll get into that.
340
00:15:30.190 --> 00:15:34.960
But it's, I think you have to assume, you have
341
00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:37.440
to bake in, it's a true freshman.
342
00:15:37.940 --> 00:15:40.360
He's going to make a mistake. He might make a
343
00:15:40.379 --> 00:15:41.039
couple mistakes.
344
00:15:41.100 --> 00:15:43.159
And, you know, maybe he makes three mistakes and he
345
00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:45.379
gets away with two of them, but you're going to
346
00:15:45.419 --> 00:15:47.139
get got at some point.
347
00:15:47.259 --> 00:15:50.389
Yeah. plenty of reasons there or ways to have that
348
00:15:50.429 --> 00:15:53.750
happen whether it's a pass bouncing off somebody's hands a
349
00:15:53.830 --> 00:15:57.090
quick screen that uh you that we saw from julian
350
00:15:57.110 --> 00:15:59.070
saying to get to miami no such things out wide
351
00:16:00.090 --> 00:16:02.570
at any number of ways and so the the rushing
352
00:16:02.870 --> 00:16:05.200
tom 11 and a half carries including.
353
00:16:04.909 --> 00:16:08.720
Sacks 11 and a half carries i'm gonna say under
354
00:16:08.840 --> 00:16:11.200
that number i think he's gonna run but i don't
355
00:16:11.240 --> 00:16:13.980
think it's gonna be That feels like it's a lot.
356
00:16:14.120 --> 00:16:16.840
It's a lot. That's a lot. I was assuming this
357
00:16:16.879 --> 00:16:18.480
was going to be like seven, and I was going
358
00:16:18.500 --> 00:16:19.320
to say, yeah, over.
359
00:16:20.039 --> 00:16:22.080
You got Braxton Miller and Terrell Pryor as part of this.
360
00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:24.039
17 carries and 14 carries.
361
00:16:24.320 --> 00:16:27.379
Well, those were like there's a bunch of design quarterback run.
362
00:16:27.720 --> 00:16:30.120
There will probably be some design quarterback run, but it's
363
00:16:30.139 --> 00:16:33.039
going to be like there's a quarterback draw here.
364
00:16:32.899 --> 00:16:35.940
Or there's a, you know, you're going to get out
365
00:16:35.980 --> 00:16:36.679
on the edge and then.
366
00:16:37.320 --> 00:16:39.240
Have his two reads and then take off at some
367
00:16:39.279 --> 00:16:41.059
point like that's going to happen, which is, you know,
368
00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:43.259
that's fine. And that's probably built into the offense, but.
369
00:16:43.179 --> 00:16:45.899
Yeah, 11 and a half seems high rushing yards, 44
370
00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:49.870
to half. That also seems high. Cause you get a,
371
00:16:49.980 --> 00:16:54.379
probably take a sack or two, but you know, it's not,
372
00:16:54.539 --> 00:16:57.159
it's not outlandish. I mean, that would be the most
373
00:16:57.240 --> 00:16:57.779
rushing yards.
374
00:16:57.870 --> 00:16:59.730
Any Ohio state quarterback has had over the last couple
375
00:16:59.750 --> 00:17:02.429
of years is 29. That was Julian Sandy against Illinois
376
00:17:02.470 --> 00:17:06.150
last year. I think he's, I think I boldly predicted,
377
00:17:06.190 --> 00:17:08.190
in fact, that he would have more than that. But,
378
00:17:08.269 --> 00:17:11.849
you know, 44 is, that would be a lot. And
379
00:17:12.029 --> 00:17:15.150
if he does, that's probably great, I would assume. If
380
00:17:15.170 --> 00:17:18.099
you finish with 44, that probably tells you something about
381
00:17:18.119 --> 00:17:21.119
your sack numbers, which would be beneficial for Ohio State.
382
00:17:21.710 --> 00:17:24.220
It also means that you're making some plays. You're probably
383
00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:27.180
picking up some first downs, extending some drives. If he
384
00:17:27.279 --> 00:17:29.660
is over 44, that's probably a very good marker for
385
00:17:29.680 --> 00:17:30.339
an Ohio State win.
386
00:17:30.359 --> 00:17:34.619
I feel like anything over 30... aside from the fact
387
00:17:34.640 --> 00:17:36.339
that it's going to hurt the, the ball prediction thing
388
00:17:36.359 --> 00:17:39.480
for me, I feel like that's good because as you said,
389
00:17:39.500 --> 00:17:41.420
the sack numbers, in fact, that he is a part
390
00:17:41.440 --> 00:17:43.779
of the offense and, and his, some of those are
391
00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:45.960
going to be scrambles and he's picking up their downs. Nobody,
392
00:17:45.980 --> 00:17:48.299
none of these freshmen scored a touchdown on the ground
393
00:17:49.119 --> 00:17:51.789
in their first starts. Does Luke Fahey, if I, yes
394
00:17:51.849 --> 00:17:52.930
or no, 0.5.
395
00:17:52.930 --> 00:17:57.869
I mean, is it likely, is it more likely than
396
00:17:57.970 --> 00:18:00.769
not that he runs for a touchdown? Probably not. But
397
00:18:00.930 --> 00:18:02.750
is it, is there a.
398
00:18:04.180 --> 00:18:06.779
You know, if you're giving me a three to one
399
00:18:06.859 --> 00:18:09.039
right now that he scores a rushing touchdown, I'll take
400
00:18:09.079 --> 00:18:12.539
that because again, the scenario I laid out earlier, you're,
401
00:18:12.599 --> 00:18:15.079
you're inside the five and you.
402
00:18:15.359 --> 00:18:16.720
Run old zone read or something.
403
00:18:16.789 --> 00:18:20.329
And, and the defense crashes, the defensive end crashes as
404
00:18:20.609 --> 00:18:21.279
they did.
405
00:18:21.119 --> 00:18:24.029
A bunch last week and Fahey pulls it and walks in.
406
00:18:24.309 --> 00:18:27.289
Well, the other thing that they can do, and I
407
00:18:27.309 --> 00:18:28.730
don't know if they want you to say you have
408
00:18:28.769 --> 00:18:32.170
it is quarterback draw the whole spread them out and
409
00:18:32.190 --> 00:18:33.529
then beam go right at the middle.
410
00:18:34.829 --> 00:18:35.329
But who knows?
411
00:18:35.950 --> 00:18:38.589
Like, I'm sure they've probably worked on it, but that's
412
00:18:38.630 --> 00:18:41.349
not something that they normally do because they've never done
413
00:18:41.369 --> 00:18:44.269
that since, I don't know, maybe Justin Fields, maybe Will Howard.
414
00:18:45.170 --> 00:18:47.490
But they've never had any reason to practice it with
415
00:18:47.509 --> 00:18:49.750
Julian Sands. So now I wonder if maybe that becomes
416
00:18:49.769 --> 00:18:51.410
a little something to watch.
417
00:18:51.710 --> 00:18:51.819
Yeah.
1
00:00:01.940 --> 00:00:02.580
Hello, everybody.
2
00:00:02.600 --> 00:00:05.500
Welcome to the Buckeye Weekly Podcast. I'm Tony Gerdeman, here
3
00:00:05.820 --> 00:00:07.860
as always with Tom or Tom.
4
00:00:10.679 --> 00:00:11.119
How's it going?
5
00:00:11.519 --> 00:00:15.099
Well, Tony, we got to do our very favorite thing,
6
00:00:15.160 --> 00:00:19.320
which is cram ourselves into coach class airline seats and
7
00:00:19.359 --> 00:00:21.719
fly across these United States of America.
8
00:00:23.019 --> 00:00:26.199
I know that was something that I was looking forward
9
00:00:26.219 --> 00:00:28.660
to doing all week, and boy, lived up to the billing.
10
00:00:28.960 --> 00:00:31.460
Lived up to the billing, watching all week as, like,
11
00:00:32.100 --> 00:00:34.020
tell nobody sitting next to me, tell nobody sitting next
12
00:00:34.039 --> 00:00:38.000
to me all the way up until like, that's my seat. Like, right.
13
00:00:38.179 --> 00:00:38.979
I'm right in there.
14
00:00:39.020 --> 00:00:40.799
And then the three of us now just in this row,
15
00:00:40.820 --> 00:00:43.119
just look at each other. Like it's only going to
16
00:00:43.140 --> 00:00:45.560
be five hours. How bad can it possibly be?
17
00:00:45.579 --> 00:00:48.420
Yeah. I love, love to fly. I love to fly
18
00:00:48.460 --> 00:00:49.859
across the country and we get to take a red
19
00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:51.320
eye on the way home. But we did that. We
20
00:00:51.359 --> 00:00:54.299
did that one to ourselves. So that's not it. That
21
00:00:54.369 --> 00:00:57.670
one's on purpose. That's fine. Ohio state probably also, you know,
22
00:00:57.829 --> 00:00:59.450
they'll get home a little bit earlier than we will, but.
23
00:00:59.469 --> 00:01:03.810
Um, We'll see how that fight goes for them. So
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00:01:04.810 --> 00:01:06.420
as we get going, go ahead and throw your questions
25
00:01:06.480 --> 00:01:07.959
in there. We will get to them. We'll click secret
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00:01:07.980 --> 00:01:10.780
chats first, as you guys know. We'll let the questions
27
00:01:10.819 --> 00:01:14.560
build up and get to those. But the main story
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00:01:14.599 --> 00:01:18.980
here is the quarterback situation. Friday did not name a
29
00:01:19.040 --> 00:01:21.069
starter on Tuesday.
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00:01:21.090 --> 00:01:24.170
Didn't he? Or Wednesday. Didn't he?
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00:01:24.670 --> 00:01:28.769
And even Friday or Thursday, speaking with the assembled media
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00:01:28.810 --> 00:01:32.359
at the hotel where they were checking in, and L.A.
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00:01:32.540 --> 00:01:33.659
Declined to name a starter.
34
00:01:34.299 --> 00:01:38.340
So, Chalmers, there's absolutely no way to know who is
35
00:01:38.400 --> 00:01:40.709
going to start this game other than the fact that
36
00:01:40.829 --> 00:01:44.549
Ryan Day also said on Tuesday or Wednesday. I think
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00:01:44.629 --> 00:01:46.810
things have progressed this week similar to the way they
38
00:01:46.849 --> 00:01:48.989
have in the past. So I'll just kind of leave
39
00:01:49.030 --> 00:01:49.450
it at that.
40
00:01:49.489 --> 00:01:50.989
And I tweeted that out.
41
00:01:51.010 --> 00:01:54.079
People were talking about, like, JT Barrett and Cardale Jones,
42
00:01:54.140 --> 00:01:54.780
that kind of thing.
43
00:01:54.840 --> 00:01:57.859
No. Literally the last couple of months where you had
44
00:01:57.900 --> 00:02:00.439
Luke Fahey number one in front of JV and St.
45
00:02:00.459 --> 00:02:00.640
Clair.
46
00:02:01.329 --> 00:02:02.510
And that was the thing that Ryan Day has always
47
00:02:02.549 --> 00:02:05.209
talked about through this entire battle. And don't forget, Luke
48
00:02:05.909 --> 00:02:08.699
Fahey was ahead of Tavion St. Clair before he had
49
00:02:08.740 --> 00:02:12.099
the injury to Julian St. So that is still the
50
00:02:12.139 --> 00:02:14.479
situation as we believe it to be.
51
00:02:14.860 --> 00:02:17.780
Yeah, I think there's... I don't think we have ever
52
00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:21.319
wavered on that at all at any point in this...
53
00:02:20.680 --> 00:02:24.719
Since he went down, frankly, since they were up by
54
00:02:24.740 --> 00:02:30.159
a million points on Ball State and... Luke Fahey was
55
00:02:30.180 --> 00:02:32.120
the first guy to go in after. That was kind
56
00:02:32.159 --> 00:02:35.180
of like the, well, that's it. They've told you.
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00:02:35.120 --> 00:02:38.000
All they need to tell you right there. So, which is,
58
00:02:38.159 --> 00:02:40.550
you know, I don't think there's any real question here.
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00:02:40.610 --> 00:02:42.849
I think everyone out here is sort of recognizing there's
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00:02:42.889 --> 00:02:46.530
not really any serious question here. Lincoln Riley was asked
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00:02:46.590 --> 00:02:48.629
about it at his press conference, his Zoom press conference
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00:02:48.689 --> 00:02:49.250
on Thursday.
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00:02:50.110 --> 00:02:51.430
You can hear his answer to that.
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00:02:51.469 --> 00:02:53.370
We dropped that as a bonus episode in the Buckeye
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00:02:53.389 --> 00:02:55.789
Weekly feed at the Buckeyes Tomorrow Morning podcast feed on
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00:02:55.909 --> 00:02:58.789
Thursday afternoon or Friday morning, one or the other.
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00:02:59.469 --> 00:03:02.710
Time is a flat circle when you travel cross country, but.
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00:03:02.569 --> 00:03:05.930
You, he, he was asked about it and he said like,
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00:03:05.969 --> 00:03:08.750
you gotta, you mean you got to prepare for both guys.
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00:03:09.150 --> 00:03:11.530
I don't know how different the preparation is. One runs
71
00:03:11.569 --> 00:03:14.050
a little more. One's arm is probably, I mean.
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Luke Fahey's got a plenty strong arm, but yeah, one
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is a little, one's a little bigger. One's a little faster.
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So you're preparing, I guess, for a little bit for both.
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And it's, yeah.
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Cause it's funny because you look at Luke Fahey and
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he can scramble around and get out of the pocket, but,
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Tavion St.
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Clair, whenever we've seen him, gets out of the pocket
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pretty quickly, maybe for different reasons. Yeah.
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You know, things are, you know, moving pictures and movies. So, like,
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they'll both run, perhaps for different reasons. So, like, you
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still have to factor that in.
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Yeah.
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But also, you've got all week to prepare for a
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quarterback or two quarterbacks who have less than 100 total
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snaps between them in college.
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So, you've got time to do this. And so, why
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would you not be like, well, we're not going to
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bother looking at Tavion St. Clair. Mm-hmm. Yeah, no, I
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think you have to be prepared just because you have
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to be prepared. But I don't think anyone is under any.
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Really misapprehension about who's going to be the starting quarterback
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for Ohio State.
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And then the question is, okay, so what does that
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change for Ohio State? Because, boy, he's not.
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Going to be as accurate as Julian Sane. He doesn't
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have as much experience as Julian Sane.
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He doesn't have.
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He probably is.
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Going to have a significantly slimmed down playbook from what
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Julian Sands has been operating with. I don't think when
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he goes to the line, he's going to have nearly
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as much leeway to change plays at the line and
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get them in the right play, which means sometimes you're
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not going to be in the right play.
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That's the one side of the coin. The other side
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of the.
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Coin is, boy, it sure does bring an interesting dynamic
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to the run game now that I don't know if
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USC really knows how much it's going to.
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And, you know, I'm not saying that we know. I'm
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not saying anyone outside of.
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The Ohio State program really knows for sure right now
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how much that's going to change things. And the other
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thing that Ross Fulton brought up this week on one
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of the shows that I did with him was his
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ability to just sort of like manipulate his body in
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the pocket to have, you know, the difference between a
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pass rusher running.
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And smacking you directly square.
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On the side or on the front, or a pass
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rusher just kind of like helplessly flying by as you
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just sort of dip, dodge, dart, and whatever the other
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D was in dodgeball.
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They dodge twice. Do they dodge? Okay. But there's five,
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so you forgot duck. I think I said, okay. Dip, dive, dodge.
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That's Oregon. That's next week. You said dodge twice. I
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like dodging. So then, yeah, with the running game, the
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aspect of it, just pull it a couple times.
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Yeah.
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He's got that ability to pick up yards that way.
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And knowing that the running game is going to have
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to be a huge help here, that that's a way
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to make that. One more thing for USC to worry
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about is the quarterback run, because we haven't seen Julian
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saying take that maybe twice in his career or so.
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So it's not really a concern. It's like, well, if
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he does it, then we'll worry about it at that.
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And here, they can't just come crashing down. And if
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they do, they're going to have to, Luke Fahey's going
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to have to make them pay for it. He has
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to be confident enough, and he has to be able
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to be a good reader. You see some quarterbacks, I
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think they guess on some of the read options. He
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has to be a good reader on the read option.
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He has to be a good reader on the RPO, PPO.
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Ross has talked, you guys have talked about where it's,
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you know, pass-pass option.
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Either it's out here or it's out there. You got
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to get those good pre-snap reads.
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And, you know, I wonder how much that has played
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into who has won the job, those sorts of things,
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the correct reads. Because with as many reads as they
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have in this offense, if you can't do that, then
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they've got to change everything.
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And then it just becomes, I'm not going to say
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Michigan's offense. Yeah.
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But there's some things where it's half field. You just
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roll out and you've got two receivers or three receivers
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to read and half the defenders.
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So.
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I do wonder how much, how simplified this is, how
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much they've had to simplify it. Or is it, do
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they go to the quarterback who has the most operational
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ability of the entire office? Not that they're going to
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run it all, but who can run more of it?
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Yeah, that that's, I saw urban Meyer this week say,
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don't expect any throws in the middle of the field.
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I think that's probably a little overstated, you know, which
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I get it.
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That's where, that's where bad stuff happens generally. what you're
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throwing into traffic.
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So maybe, but I, I just feel like it's going
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to be simplified, but it's not going to be, you know,
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baby's first college football playbook. Like it's, he's been here
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for a while. He is where he is because he
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has a pretty good grasp on the playbook. You know,
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this is, that's a part of the why behind why
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the true three star true freshman is starting over the
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five star who's been here for another year and who
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spent a lot of time around the program even before.
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That, like that's, that's a big part of this story.
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So I think they're going to put him, they're going
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to try and put him in positions to have to
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make a couple quick decisions. You know, one, I'm going
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to say.
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It's, there's a lot of one to go probably with.
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With this where, you know, you put Jeremiah Smith on
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one side and you try and make him a real
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easy read and then, okay, Devin McEwen or Chris Henry Jr.
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whoever's on the other side.
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And then, or, you know, you're rolling them out, like
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you said, and you're running like a, you know, sort
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of layers kind of thing, levels. I, I think they're
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going to do a lot to just sort of make
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it relatively simple.
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And then it's just one, two. And then if you
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need to run, you need to run. That's okay. That's that's.
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And if you need to throw the ball away, that's
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okay too.
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Don't, Don't take a sack. Don't get yourself behind the sticks.
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Don't get yourself in positions where it's a very predictable
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passing situation because that's where USC could really tee off
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on things, and we'll probably get into that when we
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talk about the offensive line later. But the run piece
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of this is interesting because you watched, there was another
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one of the plays that Ross had on one of
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the shows earlier this week where it was a play
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down in the red zone, and they handed off to,
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I think it was Bo Jackson, And Bo Jackson immediately
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gets swallowed up by three guys. And if you look
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at the all-22 angle at the wide shot, if Julian
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Sane had kept that ball, he probably could have run
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all the way to Columbus and not gotten.
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Touched by an Indiana defender. Now they've got to respect that.
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The interesting question is, okay, you look at last week's
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USC-Wisconsin game.
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Boy, howdy, were they crashing down on that running back
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an awful lot.
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And the quarterback was just taking nice, easy pulls and going, well,
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all right, I will take the I will take the
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eight to 12 yards.
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Sure. No problem. And he's a known runner. Yeah.
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And so like to not respect that at all is
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pretty shocking and maybe played in parts to their 21, 24,
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seven loss there. And so then do they learn from that?
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Do they wait to be burned by it? I think you,
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you wait for the freshman to burn you.
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Yeah.
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You know, before you start respecting him. Because, boy, just
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go back to the 2009 USC game where Iowa State really,
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really respected, overly respected Matt Barkley and that USC offense.
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Make them earn it.
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Yeah.
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And I think that's what USC's defense needs to do
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here is make them earn it. So then, you know,
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what is a realistic expectation for Luke Fahey in this game?
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And Tom, if we go back to the last time
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a freshman quarterback was out there for an extended period
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of time, Lincoln Kittle's If I set the baseline at
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six for 17 and 86 yards passing.
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I mean, Lincoln Keenholz in that game was not, you know,
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he had not been the second string quarterback for the
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vast majority of the season.
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He was not the second string quarterback.
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Until after Kyle McCord announced he was leaving. He also
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had not shown up for spring ball. He showed up
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in June because he wanted to go through the season.
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bowl sports year and hit full high school senior year
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with his, at his high school. So, so there was really,
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at that point, there was no expectation. He was the
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third stringer, but there was no expectation that he was
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going to play. So he kind of get away.
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Oh yeah, fine.
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And, and then when you, all of a sudden you're
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the second stringer and all of a sudden, boom, you're
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the first stringer in the like first quarter of the
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game that, that he was, I mean, the coaching staff
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said afterwards that he was not prepared. Like they threw
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him into a very unfair position and, I don't think
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this is nearly the same thing. Fahey's been here since
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this spring. Fahey has shown, like, Lincoln Keenholz was the
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third-string quarterback because there was not a other candidate to
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be the third-string quarterback that year. Luke Fahey's the second-string quarterback,
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or entered the year as the second-string quarterback because he
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was the better option ahead of a guy who was
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more highly touted and had more seniority over him.
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And a guy who had started a Big Ten game
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before in Justin Martin.
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Yep.
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Yeah, yeah.
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So he has moved himself up this pecking order. He's
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earned what he's gotten. So I definitely do not think
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this is quite a Lincoln-Keenhole situation.
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So then let's go back to the last three times
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a true freshman has started a game at quarterback.
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I did that go all the way back to Arch Leaster.
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Different times. I can tell you that one didn't go
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great either. So that would skew the numbers here greatly.
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I think they got shut out and he threw four
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or five picks.
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Yeah, yeah.
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So Kyle O'Connor in 2021. Braxton Miller in 2011. Terrell
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Pryor in 2008. I'm going to give you their averages.
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We'll go over under on those.
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Okay. Before Luke Fahey. Nine and a half completions. Over.
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15 and a half attempts. Over. Yeah. 180 yards passing.
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Now, this is viewed by the 319 yards found on
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the court against Akron. And the thing is, this is
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against Akron.
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This is against.
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Colorado, who was very bad in 2011, and Troy in 2008,
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where Troy Pryor set the record with four touchdown passes. So,
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180 yards is the most realistic, difficult number of this group.
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And so, what do you think?
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180 feels really very close. 180.5, just to be clear. Okay, yeah, well,
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I wasn't going to call for a push, so... 180 feels...
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It feels pretty right on.
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And I looked at the forecast right before we started,
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and the forecast seems like the rain is sort of
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sliding back a little bit, so maybe it's not going
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to be rainy. I'm going to say over just because
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there's a guy wearing number four in the way on
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offense for Ohio State on Saturday, so you assume he
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may just sort of push the Jeremiah Smith do something
307
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cool button where There's a lot of yard after catch
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that happened at some point.
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I'll say over, but I'm going to say that with
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a little bit of hesitance.
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Yeah, and boy, it will be interesting to see how
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much the quick stuff there is for Jeremiah because a
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couple of games ago, that's where he scored his two
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big touchdowns. A couple of 30-plus yard run after catch.
315
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He'll want to do some quick stuff there.
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I think the running backs are also going to be involved,
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but it's not a great UFC secondary, and it's young
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in parts as well. Two and a half touchdowns is the.
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Line here. Two touchdown passes. Two and a half touchdown passes.
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I'm going to go under that. I think that's probably.
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I think it's entirely possible that he does that, that
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he gets to three or more. And I think it's possible,
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but likely, that they score, as an offense, three or
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more touchdowns.
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But I'm going to say... I'm going to say under
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two and a half touchdowns. I think it is.
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Interesting that all three guys drew at least two touchdowns.
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Kyle LaCourte drew two touchdown passes. Braxton Miller, of his
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00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:04.980
five completions, two were touchdowns. He was five of 13
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against Colorado. And then, of course, Terrell Pryor had four touchdowns.
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Only Braxton was the only one who had thrown one
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interception in his debut start. So I'll set the line
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at 0.5.
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So yes or no. All the interceptions for Luke Fahey.
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I'll say yes.
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I mean, it feels like you're going to have, it's
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a true freshman making his first career start on the road.
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I don't think it's going to be a particularly hostile atmosphere,
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but don't worry, we'll get into that.
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00:15:30.190 --> 00:15:34.960
But it's, I think you have to assume, you have
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to bake in, it's a true freshman.
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He's going to make a mistake. He might make a
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couple mistakes.
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And, you know, maybe he makes three mistakes and he
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gets away with two of them, but you're going to
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get got at some point.
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00:15:47.259 --> 00:15:50.389
Yeah. plenty of reasons there or ways to have that
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happen whether it's a pass bouncing off somebody's hands a
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00:15:53.830 --> 00:15:57.090
quick screen that uh you that we saw from julian
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saying to get to miami no such things out wide
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at any number of ways and so the the rushing
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tom 11 and a half carries including.
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Sacks 11 and a half carries i'm gonna say under
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that number i think he's gonna run but i don't
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00:16:11.240 --> 00:16:13.980
think it's gonna be That feels like it's a lot.
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00:16:14.120 --> 00:16:16.840
It's a lot. That's a lot. I was assuming this
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was going to be like seven, and I was going
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to say, yeah, over.
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00:16:20.039 --> 00:16:22.080
You got Braxton Miller and Terrell Pryor as part of this.
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00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:24.039
17 carries and 14 carries.
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00:16:24.320 --> 00:16:27.379
Well, those were like there's a bunch of design quarterback run.
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00:16:27.720 --> 00:16:30.120
There will probably be some design quarterback run, but it's
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going to be like there's a quarterback draw here.
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00:16:32.899 --> 00:16:35.940
Or there's a, you know, you're going to get out
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on the edge and then.
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Have his two reads and then take off at some
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point like that's going to happen, which is, you know,
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00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:43.259
that's fine. And that's probably built into the offense, but.
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Yeah, 11 and a half seems high rushing yards, 44
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00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:49.870
to half. That also seems high. Cause you get a,
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00:16:49.980 --> 00:16:54.379
probably take a sack or two, but you know, it's not,
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00:16:54.539 --> 00:16:57.159
it's not outlandish. I mean, that would be the most
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00:16:57.240 --> 00:16:57.779
rushing yards.
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00:16:57.870 --> 00:16:59.730
Any Ohio state quarterback has had over the last couple
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00:16:59.750 --> 00:17:02.429
of years is 29. That was Julian Sandy against Illinois
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00:17:02.470 --> 00:17:06.150
last year. I think he's, I think I boldly predicted,
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00:17:06.190 --> 00:17:08.190
in fact, that he would have more than that. But,
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00:17:08.269 --> 00:17:11.849
you know, 44 is, that would be a lot. And
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00:17:12.029 --> 00:17:15.150
if he does, that's probably great, I would assume. If
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00:17:15.170 --> 00:17:18.099
you finish with 44, that probably tells you something about
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00:17:18.119 --> 00:17:21.119
your sack numbers, which would be beneficial for Ohio State.
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00:17:21.710 --> 00:17:24.220
It also means that you're making some plays. You're probably
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00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:27.180
picking up some first downs, extending some drives. If he
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00:17:27.279 --> 00:17:29.660
is over 44, that's probably a very good marker for
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00:17:29.680 --> 00:17:30.339
an Ohio State win.
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00:17:30.359 --> 00:17:34.619
I feel like anything over 30... aside from the fact
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00:17:34.640 --> 00:17:36.339
that it's going to hurt the, the ball prediction thing
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00:17:36.359 --> 00:17:39.480
for me, I feel like that's good because as you said,
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00:17:39.500 --> 00:17:41.420
the sack numbers, in fact, that he is a part
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00:17:41.440 --> 00:17:43.779
of the offense and, and his, some of those are
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00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:45.960
going to be scrambles and he's picking up their downs. Nobody,
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00:17:45.980 --> 00:17:48.299
none of these freshmen scored a touchdown on the ground
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00:17:49.119 --> 00:17:51.789
in their first starts. Does Luke Fahey, if I, yes
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00:17:51.849 --> 00:17:52.930
or no, 0.5.
395
00:17:52.930 --> 00:17:57.869
I mean, is it likely, is it more likely than
396
00:17:57.970 --> 00:18:00.769
not that he runs for a touchdown? Probably not. But
397
00:18:00.930 --> 00:18:02.750
is it, is there a.
398
00:18:04.180 --> 00:18:06.779
You know, if you're giving me a three to one
399
00:18:06.859 --> 00:18:09.039
right now that he scores a rushing touchdown, I'll take
400
00:18:09.079 --> 00:18:12.539
that because again, the scenario I laid out earlier, you're,
401
00:18:12.599 --> 00:18:15.079
you're inside the five and you.
402
00:18:15.359 --> 00:18:16.720
Run old zone read or something.
403
00:18:16.789 --> 00:18:20.329
And, and the defense crashes, the defensive end crashes as
404
00:18:20.609 --> 00:18:21.279
they did.
405
00:18:21.119 --> 00:18:24.029
A bunch last week and Fahey pulls it and walks in.
406
00:18:24.309 --> 00:18:27.289
Well, the other thing that they can do, and I
407
00:18:27.309 --> 00:18:28.730
don't know if they want you to say you have
408
00:18:28.769 --> 00:18:32.170
it is quarterback draw the whole spread them out and
409
00:18:32.190 --> 00:18:33.529
then beam go right at the middle.
410
00:18:34.829 --> 00:18:35.329
But who knows?
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00:18:35.950 --> 00:18:38.589
Like, I'm sure they've probably worked on it, but that's
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00:18:38.630 --> 00:18:41.349
not something that they normally do because they've never done
413
00:18:41.369 --> 00:18:44.269
that since, I don't know, maybe Justin Fields, maybe Will Howard.
414
00:18:45.170 --> 00:18:47.490
But they've never had any reason to practice it with
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00:18:47.509 --> 00:18:49.750
Julian Sands. So now I wonder if maybe that becomes
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00:18:49.769 --> 00:18:51.410
a little something to watch.
417
00:18:51.710 --> 00:18:51.819
Yeah.
