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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings. I am your host, Gilles Galant, and you are watching the Touchdown Show. We are back for NFL Week 8, and I am also back with Sean Kerner and Grant Niefer. So we're going to get into the Week 8 matchups, find some anytime touchdown score value. Now, if you want to tail any of the touchdown bets we give out today, easiest way is the quick slip links. Those are available in the podcast and video descriptions, or you can go to actionnetwork.com slash touchdowns. bet now looking back at our week seven show guys we had quite a few winners we had drake london bucky irving deshaun watson grant you had that one t higgins omar cooper jr scored another touchdown uh rj harvey george pick and saquon barkley so quite a few winners from week seven hopefully we can carry over that momentum into week eight now going into week eight no international game nice little break here we don't have to wake up too early on sunday to watch. So we're going to start right with the 1 p.m. slate on Sunday. And we're going to start, Grant, you'll kick us off. We have Raiders at Jets. Who do you like to score touchdowns in this game?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, starting off with the Jets side of things, tried and true thing that's worked well throughout the entire season, for the most part. Tight ends versus the Raiders. Raiders aren't as bad as the Lions, but they've still given up Eight touchdowns, two opposing tight ends so far this season, which is tied for second. Taylor has been getting a lot more volume in recent weeks. We obviously know that he got two touchdowns last week, had three red zone targets, had one the week before after having zero weeks one through five. So he's been used a little bit more in the red zone. Snap rate has been good. And you're getting his odds at 425 at the moment of this recording, which in my opinion is way too high. Given the matchup here, I know that the Jets have a ton of different weapons at this moment. But Taylor in the red zone, given the matchup here, odds are a bit too high. And then on the other side, a guy who's been crushing it the last few weeks, our co-worker Nick Giffen, real excited. Trey Tucker, plus 265. He's been used heavily in the red zone over the last few weeks. Beginning of the season, first four weeks of the season, Only one red zone target. Last three weeks, six red zone targets. Matchup's not terrible here. Clearly, teams are starting to realize we need to do some more with Bauer after he hasn't scored the last two weeks. Getting him at plus 265, a dude who has three touchdowns in the last two games, seems a bit too high for me. I'm rolling with it.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, we talked about Trey Tucker being the wide receiver one in this offense for a while. It just took a few games for, I think, the Raiders to remember that he is still a speedster and that Kirk cousins still throws a good deep ball. And Trey Tucker is one of the best deep ball threats in the NFL and Mason Taylor. You could see Kenyon Sadiq's role kind of declining as the weeks have gone on that Mason Taylor is now kind of taking that role back. If you remember, I gave him out on the show, I think a couple of weeks ago thinking that he was going to kind of be in this position. And then last week he ends up scoring two touchdowns. Um, Grant, you're, you're wearing a, you're, what kind of, just in case if you can't tell if you're watching, like this is obviously the Halloween episode. So like, obviously I have a knife through my head. Kerner is, he'll probably tell us here in a sec what his costume is. Grant, what are you wearing? Is that a Gryffindor robe?
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Speaker 3: It is a Gryffindor robe. I believe it's a Harry Potter one. I just have a closet full of weird costumes that I've randomly bought throughout the years. And I'm like, well, what do I throw on this for this show? And I figured the Quidditch robe would be given away a little bit by the poorly drawn scar on my forehead here. But in case that wasn't obvious, because I am terrible at drawing things on my forehead, apparently. Yeah, this is a Quidditch robe. Go, Gryffindor.
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Speaker 1: Grant, the boy who bets touchdowns, I believe is what we'll call you then. I was going to say, you look more like if Harry Potter and Hagrid had a baby. Yeah, I feel like Hagrid is the guy I hate.
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Speaker 3: Said the most in Harry Potter by a pretty wide margin.
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Speaker 1: I love Harry Potter, man. But either way, we both love touchdown props from this Raiders-Jets game, specifically Mason Taylor and Trey Tucker. Those are Grant's favorite bets for touchdown scores for Raiders at Jets. All right, we're going to move now to Cardinals at Cowboys. This one, when you initially look at the touchdown odds, you're kind of sickened because the top eight guys are all under plus 200. It's the highest total of the week, so that makes sense. So we're going to probably have to go a little chalky in this game. So on the Cardinals side, I'm going to bank on Jeremiah Love at plus 145. I think he's going to come back this week. Had a couple weeks off now for the injury. looking like he's going to be practicing and playing again this week. And he has looked explosive when he is on the field, showed flashes for why the Cardinals invested a top pick in him. He's got two touchdowns this year, one on the ground, one via the pass. He actually leads the team in red zone carries despite missing those two games. And when you watch the Cardinals' run game over the last couple of outings, Tyler Algier and Zonovan Knight, they're just not it. They both looked underwhelming when given that RB1 role. And now you're facing a Cowboys defense 27th defensive DVOA versus the run. Nine rushing touchdowns allowed. So if Jeremiah Love is playing, he's, I think, going to get a full complement of carries. I think they're going to use him as his lead back. So it's a great matchup, I think, for him to score a touchdown. On the Cowboys side, this is even chalkier. I'm going George Pickens. I see a plus 120 out there. I'm going to take it. He's scored in two of the last three games. He has at least one red zone target in five straight games. Another decent matchup for throwing the ball. Cardinals last in defensive DVOA versus the pass. bottom three versus the deep ball. Now that obviously could apply to CeeDee Lamb as well, but you're looking at probably minus 135, minus 140 for Lamb. So I think you want to pivot over to George Pickens, especially if you get them at plus odds around plus 110, plus 120. So I'm going to take Pickens to keep the scoring going for this Cowboys offense. Let's now move to Falcons at Buccaneers. Kerner, before you give out your favorite touchdown props in this game, please explain your Halloween costume, because my first instinct when I see is like Hunter S. Thompson.
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Speaker 4: Absolutely. So Hunter S. Thompson from Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, obviously, but also a blend of Mike McDaniel and his vape pen. I reference frequently on the Fancy Flex pod. Projecting the Chargers every week is a mystery. They've been a disaster this year. So I've just always been saying, what's McDaniel's vape pen telling him this week? Um, probably only got a couple more weeks of that joke in me. Cause he might, might get fired soon, but luckily I have the chargers game this week. So, uh, look forward to, uh, who I give out for that. Um, but yeah, so let's start with Falcons bucks here. Um, on the buck side, I'm going to go with Chris Godwin at plus three 10. Uh, you know, Tampa Bay is coming off that weird game. Jill, you and I have talked about it a few times today where, um, Baker will have to throw it 11 times. They won by 30. It was just a bizarre game. But overall, the passing offense should get a huge boost here with Baker Mack because I love Jalen Daniels, but he scrambles a ton. So that's just going to eat into the receivers, tight ends, pass catching backs, production. So I think Godwin gets maybe the biggest boost because Mecca Bucca He had the best chemistry he's ever had with Jalen Daniels for whatever reason. Like Baker and Ibuka, their chemistry's been off lately. So I think Godwin gets a boost here. Both Ibuka and Kenny Gainwell are banged up. They're at limited practice right now. So they could have more play schemed up for Godwin here. They've been getting him involved in the run game too at times, which is kind of weird. Either way, I like him here at plus 310. And like you say, Jill, he's due. He has zero touchdowns this year. Not really. He's not really a big touchdown guy, but he's usually good for a few every season. So I bet he'll find his own soon here. So it's a good time to buy low at plus 310 on the Falcon side. I mean, I had to dig deep here because obviously Bijan and Drake London are the most likely guys to score, but I just wasn't finding much value there. Don't like anybody else. So I'm going to go with the mall Santa himself, Michael Penix Jr.
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Speaker 1: At 13 to one.
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Speaker 4: Just a truly disgusting play because, again, he doesn't really want to run ever. And now coming off yet another ACL tear, he's been really hesitant to run this year. But the last few weeks, I've been watching him. He looks comfortable enough to take off when it's warranted. So he's actually had three straight games now with the scramble. And they're usually going to be in high leverage situations, like around the goal line. So if he has to, he's a little bit more willing to run right now. So I could definitely see him kind of sneaking in some bullshit scramble near the goal line. So it's not pretty, but I do show some value here at 13 to one. And he's, he's scored two rushing touchdowns in 12 career starts heading into this year. So something like 13 to one for him just seems a bit high. So give me panics at 13 to one here.
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Speaker 1: And one of those was against Tampa Bay last year. That was actually who he scored that in the opener. I remember it. because, again, high leverage situation. Last couple of minutes of the game, scrambled. It was just a quick quarterback sneak probably inside the five-yard line, right? So at 13-1, Michael Penix Jr., Chris Godwin. Yeah, I mean, the do part is obviously, I think, a little loose on where we're at with Chris Godwin at this stage.
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Speaker 3: But.
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Speaker 1: again, just Abuka and Gainwell both on the injury report this week. And now you're having that upside with Baker Mayfield. I'm with you. I think Grodwin, uh, anything over three to one, it's kind of where I was looking at for him. So I think that's a good price, uh, where we're at now because Baker Mayfield is not going to have only 11 passing attempts in this game. I think we can both agree on that. That's, that's such an anomaly. Um, Okay, let's now move to a rematch from earlier this year. This is Browns at Steelers. Grant, you got this one. Where are you looking at for touchdown props for Browns at Steelers?
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Speaker 3: So starting off with the Pittsburgh side, it feels weird considering I bet Pat Fryer moves every single game this season. It's starting to look like another tight end is actually the much better option. Earlier on this season, Washington, first three weeks, zero red zone targets. Since week three, he has six red zone targets. They're clearly realizing that, hey, we're on the five-yard line, the four-yard line, the three-yard line, whatever it is. Our dude's bigger than your dude. Let's just throw it up and F it. He can probably catch. And it's been working out great. Three touchdowns in the last four games. They're clearly scheming plays for him. The Steelers have been passing at the highest rate in the league in the red zone over the last five weeks. They've been passing at one of the highest rates in the league overall. Rodgers is the guy that we've seen in the past with Devontae Adams. Like, hey, I want a guy that I can just say F it, go run to the edge of the end zone, and I can throw it up to you. And Darnell Washington is that guy. So getting his odds at plus 320 right now just seems silly considering the role he's had in the last couple of weeks. And then on the other side of things, a guy who still has not scored a touchdown in his career, Casey Conception. You can get him at plus 340. He's got five red zone looks on the season, two rushes, three red zone targets. Has yet to score. The Steelers' run defense has been good this year. Their pass defense has been middle of the pack. So we've seen Watson get a little bit A little bit more room to throw recently. Conception's coming off his best game of his career with 129 yards receiving. The touchdown's got to come at some point, given that this is a matchup that's not a bad one, and we're getting odds of plus 340 for potentially the best receiving threat in this offense. Maybe him, maybe Boston, who knows? But a guy who's getting a lot of volume so far this year. It's just a bit too high for me. I have his true odds under plus 300, so really like him at plus 340.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think out of all players right now, I think of anybody who has the biggest rooting interest to either score or just do well right now is Casey Concepcion. Whenever I see an interview with him, it's always a quote tweet of like, this guy's so inspirational. This guy's amazing, blah, blah, blah, blah. Which again, all well and good, but he also has the talent to do that. And we've seen him be explosive in this offense at plus 340. This Browns offense, we can't be taking Deshaun Watson every week, right? So I think I'm with you right there. on Casey Concepcion touchdown and Darnell, how are the Steelers only figuring this out now? I thought we figured this out last year, like middle of the year when he was catching, because he only caught one touchdown last year. It was against the Bengals. I remember it was a primetime game. We were like, okay, finally they figured it out. This is the guy that you want to start. And then he didn't catch another touchdown the rest of the year. Now we're actually seeing this come to fruition touchdowns in three of the last four games. Again, you're getting a matchup nightmare at three to one against a defense that doesn't really have anybody that can stop them. So, I love both of these picks. Darnell Washington plus 320 and Casey Concepcion plus 340 for Grant for Browns at Steelers. Okay, let's move to Colts at Jaguars. One of these picks, Grant, is actually a pick that I feel like I gave out a week ago. You gave out two weeks ago. We just kind of got to go back to him on the Colts side. It's Laquan Treadwell at 6-1. It's pretty grim picking touchdown scores for Colts these days, partially because... You don't really know who's going to be on the roster by kickoff or who might be held out or limited to preserve trade value. I don't know what the status is with Josh Downs or Jonathan Taylor at this point. But with Treadwell, there doesn't seem to be a lot of trade block momentum, at least as far as his career has gone. So I think right now he might be the safest pick, even at a 6-1 odds, because you know that he's going to still be playing closer to 80% of snaps. You know he's going to play that Alec Pierce role, mostly on the outside. but now facing this Jags defense, Jaguars have been an excellent run defense so far this year, but they've had some trouble versus outside receivers. They're last in defensive DVOA versus wide receiver one and last versus the deep ball. And I'm not going to go ahead and say that he is the wide receiver one in this offense, but he's definitely the wide receiver one when it comes to outside snaps. And he's definitely the leader in ADOT on the team. So I think that applies to both Treadwell. So let's pick him to get his first touchdown since, uh, When I went back and looked, he hasn't scored a touchdown since 2021. So let's see if we can get a Laquan Treadwell touchdown for the first time in five years. On the Jaguars side, this is a little bit of a bitter topic for me, but I'm going to take it anyway. Trevor Lawrence, anytime touchdown is around plus 350. He only has one. It should be two. I'm still bitter about that game against the Patriots where he went down. But nine rushing touchdowns last year and this Colts defense is not just on the offensive side. Even the Colts defense is starting to trend down with some trades and injuries. They just traded away their best defensive tackle and run stopper DeForest Buckner. Another thing I like for Trevor Lawrence is his scrambling race because under Liam Cohen, Lawrence's scramble rate takes a huge jump when he isn't blitzed. And through seven games, the Colts are actually last in the NFL in blitz rate. So I think that's going to open up more opportunities for For T-Law to call his own number and score one near the goal line. So I like that at anything over plus 310. So that is Colts, Jaguars. I'm going to take Trevor Lawrence plus 350. Laquan Treadwell plus 550. Okay, Kerner, you are up next. This is one of my more favorite games of the week. It's Ravens at Bills. Rematch of week one of last year. Where are you going with touchdown props for this game?
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love this game as well. And on the Ravens side, I'm not going to get cute here. I'm just going to go Zay Flowers. Right around plus 145, plus 155. He's just playing at such a high level right now where it really doesn't matter who's under center. I mean, he went for eight catches, 137 yards, and a touchdown last week against the Bengals with Tyler Huntley under center. So assuming they get Lamar back this week, which seems like it's certainly pointing that way, I think he gets a boost because You know, Lamar's coming back from his ankle injury, so might not be willing to scramble as much. And obviously he loves Zay as well. So could just be peppering Zay with targets all game. And Zay's essentially the JSN of this passing offense where he's like their entire passing offense right now. So I just think he's too good to pass up here right around plus 150. And now on the Bills side, I always like doing this when I think the Bills are going to be in a competitive high scoring game, but I'm going to go Ty Johnson here. At plus 650. Because he's probably going to get one to two rush attempts tops here. But he's essentially a receiver. They use him as a receiver where year over year, he's the only running back with multiple downfield targets. Josh Allen will target him downfield. So he typically gets those explosive long catches. Sometimes already in the end zone. And once again, this year he's averaging 13 yards per.
00:18:10
Speaker 1: A catch.
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Speaker 4: So he's one of those guys where he gets, you know, two to four catches a game, anywhere from like 20 to 50 yards in a high scoring offense. If you have a receiver with that kind of weekly production, you would never be able to get him at plus 650. So I always think he's sneaky in a game like this, where the bills might end up kind of in a rare trailing game script, or at least be more aggressive through the air. So they usually like to get Ty more involved in these types of games. So love him here at plus 650.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, five touchdowns over the last two years. And that was one thing that because we've been doing the touchdown show and touchdown picks together for a few years now. And one of the things you always brought up is that if the Bills are in a trailing position. game script potentially or neutral trailing for a longer period of time that's when that unlocks Ty Johnson because that's when they want to start throwing to the running backs downfield and Zay Flowers I mean we clowned his contract in the offseason he is just applying that contract so far at least like where he just looks like a JSN but like even better in some spots where he looks so explosive it's like how did he get open it like even that touchdown against the Bengals last week I was like not sure how he even got there and then there he goes taking off and And he's around plus 220 to score a touchdown in that game. So great picks by you for Zay Flowers and Ty Johnson for Ravens at Bills. Now, before we continue, here's a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.
00:19:31
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00:20:16
Speaker 1: Hey, it's Jill from the Action Network. And one of my favorite things about Action Pro is our anytime touchdown score projections during the NFL season. It's one of the tools I use when building my own anytime touchdown plays. And now you can use it too. And you can compare our touchdown projections, which are powered by Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, and the entire Action Analytics team to the latest odds available and instantly see where the best edges are in the touchdown market. Whether you're looking for anytime touchdown scorers or even first touchdown scorers, Action Pro makes it so easy to find the best value. Sign up now for Action Pro today and get access to our NFL Anytime Touchdown projections all season long. We are back with the Touchdown Show on the Action Network podcast for NFL Week 8, giving out our favorite touchdown props. We move now to Vikings at Lions. Grant, this one, I hate to use your word, but it looks like a banger of a matchup. Who do you like for touchdowns in this game?
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Speaker 3: I am so excited for this spot. We have a little force. Whatever. It's strength versus strength. Weakness versus weakness. Lions, obviously, great offense. Vikings, obviously, great defense. Vikings, obviously, terrible offense. And Detroit has been pretty bad defensively, although getting a few guys back might help out. But overall, I think this is a spot where we finally see the Vikings put up some points for the first time since week one. And I think the guy that is most likely to score is... the guy going up against the worst defense in the league by a wide margin versus the Titans. That's TJ Hawkinson. You can find that plus 285. So far in the season, seven red zone targets. Kyler clearly likes to throw them a bit. Obviously threw them a lot a couple weeks ago. Got a touchdown last week. Only two touchdowns on the year. But the Lions have been horrific versus Titans this season. Ten total touchdowns given up. Two more than the next closest team. 100 extra yards given up at 602 compared to the next closest team, and they've only played six games so far this year. So they're giving up 100 total yards to tight end per game, and they're giving up over one and a half touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends. Hawkinson, I think, is in for a big game here, and I think he's got a much better than a plus 285 chance to score. Then on the other side of things, just clear, don't overthink it, Spot. I know Amon Ra hasn't scored in the last three games, but we're getting a guy who leads the league in red zone targets this year with, I think, 17. He's been absolutely phenomenal this year. The volume has been incredible. 11-plus targets in all but one game so far this season. It's just a spot here where I'm not overthinking getting a guy at plus odds, especially going up against a Vikings defense that blitzes at a huge rate. So he's probably going to get a lot of quick passes in the red zone. Both these teams are pretty big pass funnels. So Gibbs probably not going to be able to do as much as he has been all season long in the run game versus this tough Vikings run defense, which means more volume for Amon Ra in the red zone. And I love him at plus 130. Yeah, I think this game.
00:23:36
Speaker 1: And again, kudos to Brian Flores and the Vikings defense for how good they've looked through six games. But I feel like they're getting maybe like a little too much credit where now we're overcorrecting on some stuff. Like, for example, this is a total of game at 46 and a half. It's the first game that the Lions have played in this year that has a total less than 50. And I think we're seeing prices reflective of that. But for me, I feel like both of these teams can explode on offense at any time. Again, TJ Hawkinson, great matchup, and you're getting Amon Ra, who is typically at minus 120, minus 125, depending on the matchup. You're getting him at plus 130. You probably wouldn't have it at those odds if he had just got one of those J-Mo touchdowns last week because he was going down the field. He had nine catches for 140 yards in that game. Again, Amon Ra, St. Brown at plus 130. I thought Justin Jefferson would probably be the biggest mispriced in this game around plus 180, and it's like, nah, Sun God plus 130 is still looking really good. So let's now move to Titans at Bengals. This one last week I had T. Higgins. T. Higgins is now close to about plus 110 to score a touchdown this week. So I'm going to take this running mate who's also plus odds. I'm going to take Jamar Chase. I'm seeing him at 80%. plus 110 right now at one spot, plus 105 at another. If you can get a plus odds, please take that Jamar Chase. He's starting to heat up. He scored a touchdown of four or seven, five touchdowns overall. I don't think I need to get into too much about how good Jamar Chase is, but I think the upside for this Bengals passing offense is going to be there for a lot of games, just given how much they've abandoned the run, even in games where they've been leading, like against the Buccaneers, for example, in week one or against the Dolphins. their run efficiency and execution has just not been there. They're last in rush attempts per game, bottom three in rush yards per game. So if the Bengals are going to continue to lean on the pass the way they are, like the receivers, I think have such big upsides. So if you can get Jamar Chase at plus odds, that's where you want to go on the Bengals' side. On the Titans' side, and this is the case for pretty much every Titans' game, All the touchdown value is on the Titans side because they just have completely shaded up every player except for Tony Pollard to score a touchdown. So I am going to take the guy that I took two weeks ago. He still saw a red zone target in that game, but did not catch it. It is Alec Ayamanor. He is around plus 650. I think I saw a plus 700 earlier in the day as well, but anything over six to one. I love this price. Look, now he's only got one touchdown. But he saw a huge boost in playing time in Week 7. Part of that is because Calvin Ridley was out. But even if Calvin Ridley plays, I don't think he's going to be getting the share of snaps that he was normally playing in the first four to five weeks, just given the reduction in playing time, the emergence of, you know, a Carnell Tate, a Kamiri Dike, Aya Minoru. There's a lot of different guys that are looking for opportunities in this offense. And Calvin Ridley, I think, is just kind of being phased out. And he did miss practice on Wednesday. We'll see how it goes here on Thursday. But for Aya Minoru... The Titans continuously try to get him involved, especially in scoring situations. He leads the team with five end zone targets, and he's tied with Wandale Robinson with eight red zone targets. And he's had at least one red zone target in all but one game. So pretty consistent effort from the Titans. Now, again, it is the Titans offense. Cam Ward, I'm not exactly thrilled with some of his quarterback play this year. But again, at plus 600, I'm going to take this receiver, the second year receiver, Imanor. to get another touchdown this year. I love it. Anything over plus 600. All right. We are now moving to the 4 p.m. slate. We just finished up the 1 o'clock slate here, but we are going to start with you, Sean, and you alluded to this, that you do have the Chargers game. So Chargers at Rams, what are your favorite touchdown score props for this game?
00:27:31
Speaker 4: This is by far my favorite game as a resident L.A., But also, this is my costume. Finally get to the game for my costume. I'm Hunter S. McDaniel in Fear and Loathing in Los Angeles. So let's get to it. On the Chargers side, I keep saying, like, I'm Mike McDaniel's vape pen. They're impossible to project week to week because I never have a clue what they're going to do, especially with the running back rotation. They've had this, you know, very volatile three-way running back committee, you know, the last month or so. So heading into the bye, I'm trying to figure out what McDaniel's vape pen is telling him because his job.
00:28:09
Speaker 1: Is on the line.
00:28:09
Speaker 4: So I'm thinking he's going to scheme up more plays for Kamani Vidal at plus 500 because Vidal's been the most efficient back of the backfield. You know, their offensive line is the cause of everything here. But, you know, both Hampton and Keaton Mitchell are averaging less than four yards a carry. Vidal's averaging over five yards. So his playing time's gone up. Each of the last three games, he also kind of profiles as more of a pass catching back anyway. So I could just see him being way more involved here, coming out of the bye. McDaniel's job's on the line. That's where I'm going here. So give me Vidal at plus 500. And on the other side, where does Sean Kerner's vape pen tell him to go with the Ram side? And this is a no-brainer. Obviously, Sean Kerner's vape pen's going to tell him to just parlay both Kyron Williams and Blake Corham together at plus 395 for both of them to score. I mean, because everybody knows I'm the biggest Blake Korn fan in the world. I think he's the best backup running back in the league. If Kyron were to ever miss a game due to injury, you know, Korn would be like a top 10, top five running back. In fantasy, he's just never been given that chance. But that doesn't mean that I don't think Kyron's also one of the best backs in the league. I think this is the best running back duo. In the league, obviously. But also, Matthew Stafford's been targeting both backs way more in the passing game this year, so that's just an additional pass. for them to score. And no Devontae Adams means just everybody on the Rams has hired touchdown upside right now until he returns. So this is a game they could get up early, you know, lean on the run a lot more. So just, I'm going to parlay Kyron and Coram here at plus 395. I couldn't believe the odds on this, but love this one.
00:30:00
Speaker 1: Well, I think there's probably this idea that for a general better who would look at that and say, well, they can't both score in the same game. And it's like, well, no, no, no. That's actually more common than you think. This year it's already happened two or three times that Corham scored. Kyron scored as well. Looking back last year, it happened in four of seven games. So, again, it's very common in this offense, especially, again, Devontae Adams being out just completely– changes kind of the way I think the Rams offense operates. The only question that I had, I was surprised you didn't take your guy orange over Vidal. I mean, five to one, you're still looking good at five to one for him or even keep Mitchell at five to one. But Gadsden, I would have thought for sure would have been your pick.
00:30:45
Speaker 4: Well, again, you're assuming you can understand what McDaniel is going to do week to week. I was actually going to go with Scott Matlock 50 to one.
00:30:53
Speaker 1: Oh yeah.
00:30:53
Speaker 4: You'd have to go with the most bizarre crap, but I think since his job is on the line, I was trying to stick with the running back. But yeah, obviously, I love my guy Orange. But Charlie Kohler is their lead tight end right now. So, I mean, can't go with the tight end. So, I had to go with the running back. And I just feel with his job on the line, he might scheme up more work for Vidal here. But again, who the hell knows? It might be the last week we even get to make fun of McDaniel.
00:31:26
Speaker 1: Well, I mean... if Hayden Rucci is their leading scorer again, we might, we might have to at this point. So, all right. Kamani Vidal on the Chargers side with a Kyron Blake fear and loathing in Los Angeles parlay at plus 395. Okay. Let's move to, oh, this one's a good one. Patriots at Dolphins. So this is in Miami. We know historically kind of how the Patriots tend to play in Miami, but again, that's long time ago, but trends are trends. We'll see how that plays out. Grant, you got this one. Who do you like to score Patriots at Dolphins?
00:32:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, starting off on the Patriots side of things because it's the easier one of the two because the Dolphins are just disgusting. We're going with Eli Reardon. You can find him at plus 450. Hunter Henry is obviously on the team, and he's obviously better tight end. But the snap count difference between the two hasn't been drastic, about 10% to 20%. With Reardon playing over 50% of snaps each of the last four weeks. He has a red zone target over each of the last four weeks. He actually has the same amount of red zone targets as Hunter Henry this season, and he's been playing well recently and getting some good volume, 50 plus receiving yards in two of the last three weeks. So he's a pretty big part of this offense. The matchup here isn't a terrible one. Obviously, this game could get a hand and they might not be passing, but it's a divisional game. It's It's Miami versus New England. We've seen it before in the past where it seems like a lock and somehow into the close. But Raritan, I think his odds are a bit too high, plus 450. On the Miami side, I didn't want to take anyone. They're disgusting. I mean, I don't know. I don't know what to do with them. They're going to be bad for a while. But Malik Washington, dude, is seeing a lot of volume. He has in the red zone this year, which they've had very few red zone trips this year. He's got three rushing attempts, two targets in the red zone this year. He's the main wide receiver in this absolutely disgusting offense. He's playing 80% plus the stats virtually every single week. So because of that, I'm going for Malik Washington to score his first touchdown of the year at plus 340.
00:33:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. It was pretty tough to look through when I was trying to identify kind of a prop for Miami. I mean, I toyed with Greg Dulcich. I was like, maybe, maybe we just go two touchdowns, Ollie Gordon. Like it just, it didn't feel great either way, but I think Malik Washington, uh, not that I would lean on what Sean would say that I'm saying that he's due, but hell he is due. Uh, but I'm just saying Malik Washington definitely has, uh, a bigger role in this offense than I think people realize, especially after Caleb Douglas went for two touchdowns last week. I think people might have forgot that leading into that game, it was Malik Washington who was still getting majority of the touches. All right, let's move now to our last game of the 4 p.m. slate, and that is Chiefs at Broncos. So I got this game, and I'm going to take the two guys that I took in week one when these two teams played, and I'm going to take them again. So we're Jalen Waddell could potentially miss this game. Left last game with a chest injury. Didn't see him practice on Wednesday. I think there's a chance that he could get held out this week just to recover. And I think that's just only going to boost Sutton. He only has one touchdown this year, but five end zone targets. Has all those receiver metrics that you feel good about betting on him. Like he's going to lead the team in snaps played, routes run. first read target share, all that good stuff, but it's the Broncos. You know how it is. Like we took RJ Harvey last week. I'll be honest. We got kind of lucky on it because he only played like a handful of snaps, took one to the house and, you know, we're happy to walk away with a win, but that's the kind of thing that you're dealing with, with the Broncos offense that they're very gimmicky. But I think Sutton is still one of those players that they still try to make a part of a weekly routine of getting him at least one target or putting them in scoring position. And the Chiefs, They've shifted their defense a little bit this year under Spagnuolo a little bit more. They're playing less man coverage, but a lot more too high safety. And that's actually been good for Sutton, who's been pretty good against zone and very good against too high safety. But I think he's going to see some one-on-one matchups versus rookie corner Mansoor Delane. And even as good as Mansoor Delane is, I still think Sutton has the capability and talent to win that matchup in the end zone. So if Bo Nix actually plays to his potential, doesn't need to run for 75 yards for a touchdown and is throwing the ball, and we see more of what we saw over the recent weeks under Sean Payton instead of what we saw in week one, I love the price then that we're getting on Cortland Sutton. On the cheap side, this one is super frustrating because this guy just can't understand why he hasn't been able to be as efficient as he was in his rookie year. And that is Xavier Worthy. And he's around plus 270. Been a pretty big disappointment overall this year. But even as disappointing as he has been, he still leads the team in red zone targets. He still leads the team in deep targets. First read target share. He runs around on 85% of dropbacks. He's going to get carries out of the backfield. I think because of what we saw in week one, and then of course watching Seattle just crush this Chiefs offense last week, I think some of these numbers are still a little... not adjusted enough for what we could see from this Chiefs offense I think we're seeing more prices of like that's what we're going to see what we saw last week as opposed to what we saw during the season so I feel like from a Chiefs standpoint outside of Kenneth Walker Worthy is really the only Chief left that could provide like explosive plays downfield and with Taequann Thornton out now and just they're kind of down to bare bones as far as their talent players that they can trust so Xavier Worthy is the only chief outside of maybe Travis Kelsey that I know that is going to play almost every snap and definitely all the high leverage snaps near the red zone. So I'm going to take Xavier Worthy at plus 270 and Courtland Sutton at plus 250. Okay, let's move to Sunday night football. And as we normally do with the primetime games, we don't assign it to each one person. We like to do a parlay for each one of these, give our favorite touchdown prop from each of us. So I'll start off. I am going to take for this Eagles at commanders game. I'm going to take Dallas Goddard. And I know that obviously you got Tanner McKee under center. But again, you're facing a Washington defense that just is not very strong defending the pass. They've been giving up a few touchdowns and tight ends this year. And at least Dallas Goddard, you know, is one of the few healthy options, at least from a pass catcher standpoint, for the Eagles. So I'll take Dallas Goddard to start us off. Grant, where are you going for your touchdown prop for Eagles at Commanders?
00:38:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, going with a guy that came through on Monday night for us.
00:38:17
Speaker 4: Sure did.
00:38:17
Speaker 3: Mekhi Lemon, plus 320, I think is the current line. Uh, obviously beginning of the season did not have much of a role that has changed over the last four games, six plus targets in each of those games only has one red zone target on the year. And that was last week. We don't know about the status of Smith. We don't know about the status of Barkley. We don't know about the status of Wicks. So Lemon could jump into that same role he had last week. You mentioned commanders have not been great versus the past this year. Um, while they have been drastically worse versus tight ends than wide receivers, uh, Still have not been great, so Lemon plus 320 is a bit too high.
00:38:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean, again, we're Thursday afternoon, but if Devontae Smith isn't playing, Makai Lemon looks great here. So at that price, it's definitely worth getting ahead of because that price will probably drop if Smith is ruled inactive. So Dallas Goddard, Makai Lemon, those are the first two legs for our Sunday Night Football Touchdown Parlay. Kerner, where are you going with your bet?
00:39:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, you guys took the only two Eagles we even know are playing This week. So I wanted to go with the commander for a parlay and more of a long shot. Let's get this thing over a hundred to one. So I'm going to go with the Ami Brown right around plus, uh, seven 50 plus 800. Uh, just because, you know, Terry McLaurin out everyone in the wide receiver room, uh, gets a boost. Even sugar Quanko gets a boost. Uh, and my guy, I'm very high on rookie Antonio Williams, but this is a game where the commanders could play with the lead, be a little bit more run heavy, uh, And those are the snaps that Deami Brown was actually in on after Terry went down last week. So I think this is kind of a sneaky spot for him and probably the receiver. Nobody wants to bet. That's why his odds are up here, but I'm showing pretty good value at plus 800. I actually think he should be closer, like plus 600, just given his role in this potential game script. So I'm going to go with this one. Cause I think this gets us over a hundred to one.
00:40:11
Speaker 1: It, Well, it does, yeah. And I think just to comment about the receiver that nobody wants to bet, I think it's because everybody's wanting to bet probably Traylon Burks or, you know, Stephon Diggs and even Antonio Williams to a lesser extent. But, again, Diami Brown, we've seen him catch some deep shots in this offense and just in the NFL. So, again, Brown plus 750, that's easily going to take us over the 100-1. Right now, when you pair Dallas Goddard, Makai Lemon, and Diami Brown together for touchdown props for Sunday Night Football, 130-1.
00:40:38
Speaker 3: So.
00:40:40
Speaker 1: That's what we're talking about where we want to get spicy for Sunday night football. So that's the parlay we're going to do for Eagles at Commanders. This one I'm not as high on for scoring, but we're going to do a touchdown parlay anyway. That is Bears at Seahawks. I'm going to do the first leg. I'm going to keep it real simple. Jackson Smith and Jigba, set it and forget it. We're going to have that as the anchor leg of this parlay. It doesn't matter what defense he's playing against. He is, I think he's taken the role now. He is the number one wide receiver in the NFL. He could score against any defense, and you know that he's going to see at least a 30% target share. So let's start us off with JSN, Jackson Smith and Jigba, anytime touchdown. Grant, your Seahawks are playing Monday Night Football. Who are you betting to score a touchdown?
00:41:25
Speaker 3: A guy who I bet a lot this season and it has not worked out well at all, and you talk about a guy that's due, there are two receivers slash tight ends in the league with six or more red zone targets this year who have not scored a receiving touchdown. One is, strangely enough, Kendrick Bourne. Did not see that one coming. The other one is A.J. Barner. A.J. Barner is currently sitting at plus 225. He is the second red zone option in this receiving game, and it's not even that distanced. uh jsn has 12 red zone targets on the year barner has seven this is a guy who is the clear second option he's the tush push guy he already has one rushing touchdown on the season so we can get it done in two different ways at some point he needs to score receiving touchdown after last season he was great with six receiving touchdowns zero so far through seven games i hope this is the spot i think this should be the spot but Grant, I've said that before. It just has to happen at some point.
00:42:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, 10 receiving touchdowns in the previous two years. The falloff of Barners receiving touchdowns this season should be studied by fantasy communities for years to figure out what happened here because... I'm with you, man. I don't like to subscribe to the he's due routine very often, but this guy is so due. I can't think of another player, especially on the Seahawks, that needs to score a receiving touchdown so we can just get some of our winnings back from betting them every week so far this year. So JSN and AJ Barner, those are the first two touchdown props that we like for Bears at Seahawks for Monday Night Football. Kerner, round us out. What do you like to pick for a touchdown for Monday Night Football?
00:43:06
Speaker 4: Colson Loveland here at plus 215. Had a bit of a rough start to the season, but Loveland's season is officially underway now, especially with Cole Komet now out for the season. I think Loveland's playing time and usage can only go up. And this is obviously a brutal matchup against the Seahawks, but they use a ton of cover six, try to limit explosive plays. And there's only been five Caleb dropbacks this year against cover six. But if you look at last year, Loveland led the team with a 3.1 yards per route run against cover six. So kind of a sneaky spot to still keep him going and what should be a low scoring game. But if they do score, I think he'd be one of the most likely bears to do it. All right.
00:43:51
Speaker 1: So JSN, AJ Barner, Colston Loveland, you put those three together for Monday night football that comes up to 20 to one. at DraftKings for those three touchdown scores. Now, before we get out of here, we got one more parlay to do. This is our favorite touchdown scores for the week, and it is presented by DraftKings. So this can be from any game, and then we're going to parlay them together over on DraftKings. Kerner, why don't you start us off? What is your favorite touchdown score prop for week eight?
00:44:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to go with Zay Flowers right around plus 140 here. And what should be a shootout? against the bill so i just think there's going to be a lot of scoring here so that's why i like it but also just flowers has been playing an elite level uh this year and could be getting you know lamar jackson back this week and i think lamar he might not be 100 so he might not scramble as much lean on you know targeting his guy and zay here a bit more so um love his upside in the spot against the bills um so yeah give me zay flowers at plus 140.
00:44:51
Speaker 1: All right, so Zay Flowers, that is from Kerner. Grant, what is your favorite touchdown score for Week 8?
00:44:57
Speaker 3: Rolling with TJ Hawkinson. Again, the tight end versus the worst tight end defense in the league by a very wide margin. Getting him at plus 285 is just silly.
00:45:10
Speaker 1: All right, and I am... I'm going to do a same-game parlay within this parlay, Kerner. I'm going back to that Bills-Ravens game. But I'm going to take DJ Moore to score a touchdown. Two games where he missed. Now they're coming off by. So we're finally getting DJ Moore healthy again. And in two, quote-unquote, healthy games this year, he's produced eight targets on a touchdown versus the Texans and ten targets versus the Chargers.
00:45:36
Speaker 4: So.
00:45:37
Speaker 1: And in those two games, his targets for route run was like 0.37. And just to put that in context, like if that was over a full season, that would rank higher than like Puka Nakua or Jackson Smith Najigba. So obviously a bit of a small sample, but again, we're seeing that the bills are shown to use him heavily in this offense. So DJ Moore, I love him to score an anytime touchdown in this game. So let's see here. We put this parlay together. You have Zay Flowers, TJ Hawkinson, and DJ Moore. You put those three together at DraftKings, that probably comes out to just under 26 to 1, so plus 25.95. So those are our favorite touchdown scores for Week 8 presented by DraftKings. Don't forget to download the DraftKings Sports app. Use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when you sign up for a great offer. DraftKings, the crown is yours. So that'll do it for us here on the Touchdown Show with the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings. My thanks to Sean Kerner and Grant Neifert for joining me as always. And check out Playbook on X for quick slips on these plays or visit actionnetwork.com slash bet now if you want to tail any of these bets. Make sure to subscribe to the podcast. You won't miss anything for the rest of the NFL season. So I want to thank you again for listening or watching the Action Network podcast. We'll see you next week.
00:47:02
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00:00:29
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings. I am your host, Gilles Galant, and you are watching the Touchdown Show. We are back for NFL Week 8, and I am also back with Sean Kerner and Grant Niefer. So we're going to get into the Week 8 matchups, find some anytime touchdown score value. Now, if you want to tail any of the touchdown bets we give out today, easiest way is the quick slip links. Those are available in the podcast and video descriptions, or you can go to actionnetwork.com slash touchdowns. bet now looking back at our week seven show guys we had quite a few winners we had drake london bucky irving deshaun watson grant you had that one t higgins omar cooper jr scored another touchdown uh rj harvey george pick and saquon barkley so quite a few winners from week seven hopefully we can carry over that momentum into week eight now going into week eight no international game nice little break here we don't have to wake up too early on sunday to watch. So we're going to start right with the 1 p.m. slate on Sunday. And we're going to start, Grant, you'll kick us off. We have Raiders at Jets. Who do you like to score touchdowns in this game?
00:01:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, starting off with the Jets side of things, tried and true thing that's worked well throughout the entire season, for the most part. Tight ends versus the Raiders. Raiders aren't as bad as the Lions, but they've still given up Eight touchdowns, two opposing tight ends so far this season, which is tied for second. Taylor has been getting a lot more volume in recent weeks. We obviously know that he got two touchdowns last week, had three red zone targets, had one the week before after having zero weeks one through five. So he's been used a little bit more in the red zone. Snap rate has been good. And you're getting his odds at 425 at the moment of this recording, which in my opinion is way too high. Given the matchup here, I know that the Jets have a ton of different weapons at this moment. But Taylor in the red zone, given the matchup here, odds are a bit too high. And then on the other side, a guy who's been crushing it the last few weeks, our co-worker Nick Giffen, real excited. Trey Tucker, plus 265. He's been used heavily in the red zone over the last few weeks. Beginning of the season, first four weeks of the season, Only one red zone target. Last three weeks, six red zone targets. Matchup's not terrible here. Clearly, teams are starting to realize we need to do some more with Bauer after he hasn't scored the last two weeks. Getting him at plus 265, a dude who has three touchdowns in the last two games, seems a bit too high for me. I'm rolling with it.
00:03:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, we talked about Trey Tucker being the wide receiver one in this offense for a while. It just took a few games for, I think, the Raiders to remember that he is still a speedster and that Kirk cousins still throws a good deep ball. And Trey Tucker is one of the best deep ball threats in the NFL and Mason Taylor. You could see Kenyon Sadiq's role kind of declining as the weeks have gone on that Mason Taylor is now kind of taking that role back. If you remember, I gave him out on the show, I think a couple of weeks ago thinking that he was going to kind of be in this position. And then last week he ends up scoring two touchdowns. Um, Grant, you're, you're wearing a, you're, what kind of, just in case if you can't tell if you're watching, like this is obviously the Halloween episode. So like, obviously I have a knife through my head. Kerner is, he'll probably tell us here in a sec what his costume is. Grant, what are you wearing? Is that a Gryffindor robe?
00:03:52
Speaker 3: It is a Gryffindor robe. I believe it's a Harry Potter one. I just have a closet full of weird costumes that I've randomly bought throughout the years. And I'm like, well, what do I throw on this for this show? And I figured the Quidditch robe would be given away a little bit by the poorly drawn scar on my forehead here. But in case that wasn't obvious, because I am terrible at drawing things on my forehead, apparently. Yeah, this is a Quidditch robe. Go, Gryffindor.
00:04:23
Speaker 1: Grant, the boy who bets touchdowns, I believe is what we'll call you then. I was going to say, you look more like if Harry Potter and Hagrid had a baby. Yeah, I feel like Hagrid is the guy I hate.
00:04:36
Speaker 3: Said the most in Harry Potter by a pretty wide margin.
00:04:40
Speaker 1: I love Harry Potter, man. But either way, we both love touchdown props from this Raiders-Jets game, specifically Mason Taylor and Trey Tucker. Those are Grant's favorite bets for touchdown scores for Raiders at Jets. All right, we're going to move now to Cardinals at Cowboys. This one, when you initially look at the touchdown odds, you're kind of sickened because the top eight guys are all under plus 200. It's the highest total of the week, so that makes sense. So we're going to probably have to go a little chalky in this game. So on the Cardinals side, I'm going to bank on Jeremiah Love at plus 145. I think he's going to come back this week. Had a couple weeks off now for the injury. looking like he's going to be practicing and playing again this week. And he has looked explosive when he is on the field, showed flashes for why the Cardinals invested a top pick in him. He's got two touchdowns this year, one on the ground, one via the pass. He actually leads the team in red zone carries despite missing those two games. And when you watch the Cardinals' run game over the last couple of outings, Tyler Algier and Zonovan Knight, they're just not it. They both looked underwhelming when given that RB1 role. And now you're facing a Cowboys defense 27th defensive DVOA versus the run. Nine rushing touchdowns allowed. So if Jeremiah Love is playing, he's, I think, going to get a full complement of carries. I think they're going to use him as his lead back. So it's a great matchup, I think, for him to score a touchdown. On the Cowboys side, this is even chalkier. I'm going George Pickens. I see a plus 120 out there. I'm going to take it. He's scored in two of the last three games. He has at least one red zone target in five straight games. Another decent matchup for throwing the ball. Cardinals last in defensive DVOA versus the pass. bottom three versus the deep ball. Now that obviously could apply to CeeDee Lamb as well, but you're looking at probably minus 135, minus 140 for Lamb. So I think you want to pivot over to George Pickens, especially if you get them at plus odds around plus 110, plus 120. So I'm going to take Pickens to keep the scoring going for this Cowboys offense. Let's now move to Falcons at Buccaneers. Kerner, before you give out your favorite touchdown props in this game, please explain your Halloween costume, because my first instinct when I see is like Hunter S. Thompson.
00:06:50
Speaker 4: Absolutely. So Hunter S. Thompson from Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, obviously, but also a blend of Mike McDaniel and his vape pen. I reference frequently on the Fancy Flex pod. Projecting the Chargers every week is a mystery. They've been a disaster this year. So I've just always been saying, what's McDaniel's vape pen telling him this week? Um, probably only got a couple more weeks of that joke in me. Cause he might, might get fired soon, but luckily I have the chargers game this week. So, uh, look forward to, uh, who I give out for that. Um, but yeah, so let's start with Falcons bucks here. Um, on the buck side, I'm going to go with Chris Godwin at plus three 10. Uh, you know, Tampa Bay is coming off that weird game. Jill, you and I have talked about it a few times today where, um, Baker will have to throw it 11 times. They won by 30. It was just a bizarre game. But overall, the passing offense should get a huge boost here with Baker Mack because I love Jalen Daniels, but he scrambles a ton. So that's just going to eat into the receivers, tight ends, pass catching backs, production. So I think Godwin gets maybe the biggest boost because Mecca Bucca He had the best chemistry he's ever had with Jalen Daniels for whatever reason. Like Baker and Ibuka, their chemistry's been off lately. So I think Godwin gets a boost here. Both Ibuka and Kenny Gainwell are banged up. They're at limited practice right now. So they could have more play schemed up for Godwin here. They've been getting him involved in the run game too at times, which is kind of weird. Either way, I like him here at plus 310. And like you say, Jill, he's due. He has zero touchdowns this year. Not really. He's not really a big touchdown guy, but he's usually good for a few every season. So I bet he'll find his own soon here. So it's a good time to buy low at plus 310 on the Falcon side. I mean, I had to dig deep here because obviously Bijan and Drake London are the most likely guys to score, but I just wasn't finding much value there. Don't like anybody else. So I'm going to go with the mall Santa himself, Michael Penix Jr.
00:08:59
Speaker 1: At 13 to one.
00:09:01
Speaker 4: Just a truly disgusting play because, again, he doesn't really want to run ever. And now coming off yet another ACL tear, he's been really hesitant to run this year. But the last few weeks, I've been watching him. He looks comfortable enough to take off when it's warranted. So he's actually had three straight games now with the scramble. And they're usually going to be in high leverage situations, like around the goal line. So if he has to, he's a little bit more willing to run right now. So I could definitely see him kind of sneaking in some bullshit scramble near the goal line. So it's not pretty, but I do show some value here at 13 to one. And he's, he's scored two rushing touchdowns in 12 career starts heading into this year. So something like 13 to one for him just seems a bit high. So give me panics at 13 to one here.
00:09:49
Speaker 1: And one of those was against Tampa Bay last year. That was actually who he scored that in the opener. I remember it. because, again, high leverage situation. Last couple of minutes of the game, scrambled. It was just a quick quarterback sneak probably inside the five-yard line, right? So at 13-1, Michael Penix Jr., Chris Godwin. Yeah, I mean, the do part is obviously, I think, a little loose on where we're at with Chris Godwin at this stage.
00:10:13
Speaker 3: But.
00:10:14
Speaker 1: again, just Abuka and Gainwell both on the injury report this week. And now you're having that upside with Baker Mayfield. I'm with you. I think Grodwin, uh, anything over three to one, it's kind of where I was looking at for him. So I think that's a good price, uh, where we're at now because Baker Mayfield is not going to have only 11 passing attempts in this game. I think we can both agree on that. That's, that's such an anomaly. Um, Okay, let's now move to a rematch from earlier this year. This is Browns at Steelers. Grant, you got this one. Where are you looking at for touchdown props for Browns at Steelers?
00:10:48
Speaker 3: So starting off with the Pittsburgh side, it feels weird considering I bet Pat Fryer moves every single game this season. It's starting to look like another tight end is actually the much better option. Earlier on this season, Washington, first three weeks, zero red zone targets. Since week three, he has six red zone targets. They're clearly realizing that, hey, we're on the five-yard line, the four-yard line, the three-yard line, whatever it is. Our dude's bigger than your dude. Let's just throw it up and F it. He can probably catch. And it's been working out great. Three touchdowns in the last four games. They're clearly scheming plays for him. The Steelers have been passing at the highest rate in the league in the red zone over the last five weeks. They've been passing at one of the highest rates in the league overall. Rodgers is the guy that we've seen in the past with Devontae Adams. Like, hey, I want a guy that I can just say F it, go run to the edge of the end zone, and I can throw it up to you. And Darnell Washington is that guy. So getting his odds at plus 320 right now just seems silly considering the role he's had in the last couple of weeks. And then on the other side of things, a guy who still has not scored a touchdown in his career, Casey Conception. You can get him at plus 340. He's got five red zone looks on the season, two rushes, three red zone targets. Has yet to score. The Steelers' run defense has been good this year. Their pass defense has been middle of the pack. So we've seen Watson get a little bit A little bit more room to throw recently. Conception's coming off his best game of his career with 129 yards receiving. The touchdown's got to come at some point, given that this is a matchup that's not a bad one, and we're getting odds of plus 340 for potentially the best receiving threat in this offense. Maybe him, maybe Boston, who knows? But a guy who's getting a lot of volume so far this year. It's just a bit too high for me. I have his true odds under plus 300, so really like him at plus 340.
00:12:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think out of all players right now, I think of anybody who has the biggest rooting interest to either score or just do well right now is Casey Concepcion. Whenever I see an interview with him, it's always a quote tweet of like, this guy's so inspirational. This guy's amazing, blah, blah, blah, blah. Which again, all well and good, but he also has the talent to do that. And we've seen him be explosive in this offense at plus 340. This Browns offense, we can't be taking Deshaun Watson every week, right? So I think I'm with you right there. on Casey Concepcion touchdown and Darnell, how are the Steelers only figuring this out now? I thought we figured this out last year, like middle of the year when he was catching, because he only caught one touchdown last year. It was against the Bengals. I remember it was a primetime game. We were like, okay, finally they figured it out. This is the guy that you want to start. And then he didn't catch another touchdown the rest of the year. Now we're actually seeing this come to fruition touchdowns in three of the last four games. Again, you're getting a matchup nightmare at three to one against a defense that doesn't really have anybody that can stop them. So, I love both of these picks. Darnell Washington plus 320 and Casey Concepcion plus 340 for Grant for Browns at Steelers. Okay, let's move to Colts at Jaguars. One of these picks, Grant, is actually a pick that I feel like I gave out a week ago. You gave out two weeks ago. We just kind of got to go back to him on the Colts side. It's Laquan Treadwell at 6-1. It's pretty grim picking touchdown scores for Colts these days, partially because... You don't really know who's going to be on the roster by kickoff or who might be held out or limited to preserve trade value. I don't know what the status is with Josh Downs or Jonathan Taylor at this point. But with Treadwell, there doesn't seem to be a lot of trade block momentum, at least as far as his career has gone. So I think right now he might be the safest pick, even at a 6-1 odds, because you know that he's going to still be playing closer to 80% of snaps. You know he's going to play that Alec Pierce role, mostly on the outside. but now facing this Jags defense, Jaguars have been an excellent run defense so far this year, but they've had some trouble versus outside receivers. They're last in defensive DVOA versus wide receiver one and last versus the deep ball. And I'm not going to go ahead and say that he is the wide receiver one in this offense, but he's definitely the wide receiver one when it comes to outside snaps. And he's definitely the leader in ADOT on the team. So I think that applies to both Treadwell. So let's pick him to get his first touchdown since, uh, When I went back and looked, he hasn't scored a touchdown since 2021. So let's see if we can get a Laquan Treadwell touchdown for the first time in five years. On the Jaguars side, this is a little bit of a bitter topic for me, but I'm going to take it anyway. Trevor Lawrence, anytime touchdown is around plus 350. He only has one. It should be two. I'm still bitter about that game against the Patriots where he went down. But nine rushing touchdowns last year and this Colts defense is not just on the offensive side. Even the Colts defense is starting to trend down with some trades and injuries. They just traded away their best defensive tackle and run stopper DeForest Buckner. Another thing I like for Trevor Lawrence is his scrambling race because under Liam Cohen, Lawrence's scramble rate takes a huge jump when he isn't blitzed. And through seven games, the Colts are actually last in the NFL in blitz rate. So I think that's going to open up more opportunities for For T-Law to call his own number and score one near the goal line. So I like that at anything over plus 310. So that is Colts, Jaguars. I'm going to take Trevor Lawrence plus 350. Laquan Treadwell plus 550. Okay, Kerner, you are up next. This is one of my more favorite games of the week. It's Ravens at Bills. Rematch of week one of last year. Where are you going with touchdown props for this game?
00:16:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love this game as well. And on the Ravens side, I'm not going to get cute here. I'm just going to go Zay Flowers. Right around plus 145, plus 155. He's just playing at such a high level right now where it really doesn't matter who's under center. I mean, he went for eight catches, 137 yards, and a touchdown last week against the Bengals with Tyler Huntley under center. So assuming they get Lamar back this week, which seems like it's certainly pointing that way, I think he gets a boost because You know, Lamar's coming back from his ankle injury, so might not be willing to scramble as much. And obviously he loves Zay as well. So could just be peppering Zay with targets all game. And Zay's essentially the JSN of this passing offense where he's like their entire passing offense right now. So I just think he's too good to pass up here right around plus 150. And now on the Bills side, I always like doing this when I think the Bills are going to be in a competitive high scoring game, but I'm going to go Ty Johnson here. At plus 650. Because he's probably going to get one to two rush attempts tops here. But he's essentially a receiver. They use him as a receiver where year over year, he's the only running back with multiple downfield targets. Josh Allen will target him downfield. So he typically gets those explosive long catches. Sometimes already in the end zone. And once again, this year he's averaging 13 yards per.
00:18:10
Speaker 1: A catch.
00:18:11
Speaker 4: So he's one of those guys where he gets, you know, two to four catches a game, anywhere from like 20 to 50 yards in a high scoring offense. If you have a receiver with that kind of weekly production, you would never be able to get him at plus 650. So I always think he's sneaky in a game like this, where the bills might end up kind of in a rare trailing game script, or at least be more aggressive through the air. So they usually like to get Ty more involved in these types of games. So love him here at plus 650.
00:18:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, five touchdowns over the last two years. And that was one thing that because we've been doing the touchdown show and touchdown picks together for a few years now. And one of the things you always brought up is that if the Bills are in a trailing position. game script potentially or neutral trailing for a longer period of time that's when that unlocks Ty Johnson because that's when they want to start throwing to the running backs downfield and Zay Flowers I mean we clowned his contract in the offseason he is just applying that contract so far at least like where he just looks like a JSN but like even better in some spots where he looks so explosive it's like how did he get open it like even that touchdown against the Bengals last week I was like not sure how he even got there and then there he goes taking off and And he's around plus 220 to score a touchdown in that game. So great picks by you for Zay Flowers and Ty Johnson for Ravens at Bills. Now, before we continue, here's a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.
00:19:31
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00:20:16
Speaker 1: Hey, it's Jill from the Action Network. And one of my favorite things about Action Pro is our anytime touchdown score projections during the NFL season. It's one of the tools I use when building my own anytime touchdown plays. And now you can use it too. And you can compare our touchdown projections, which are powered by Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, and the entire Action Analytics team to the latest odds available and instantly see where the best edges are in the touchdown market. Whether you're looking for anytime touchdown scorers or even first touchdown scorers, Action Pro makes it so easy to find the best value. Sign up now for Action Pro today and get access to our NFL Anytime Touchdown projections all season long. We are back with the Touchdown Show on the Action Network podcast for NFL Week 8, giving out our favorite touchdown props. We move now to Vikings at Lions. Grant, this one, I hate to use your word, but it looks like a banger of a matchup. Who do you like for touchdowns in this game?
00:21:17
Speaker 3: I am so excited for this spot. We have a little force. Whatever. It's strength versus strength. Weakness versus weakness. Lions, obviously, great offense. Vikings, obviously, great defense. Vikings, obviously, terrible offense. And Detroit has been pretty bad defensively, although getting a few guys back might help out. But overall, I think this is a spot where we finally see the Vikings put up some points for the first time since week one. And I think the guy that is most likely to score is... the guy going up against the worst defense in the league by a wide margin versus the Titans. That's TJ Hawkinson. You can find that plus 285. So far in the season, seven red zone targets. Kyler clearly likes to throw them a bit. Obviously threw them a lot a couple weeks ago. Got a touchdown last week. Only two touchdowns on the year. But the Lions have been horrific versus Titans this season. Ten total touchdowns given up. Two more than the next closest team. 100 extra yards given up at 602 compared to the next closest team, and they've only played six games so far this year. So they're giving up 100 total yards to tight end per game, and they're giving up over one and a half touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends. Hawkinson, I think, is in for a big game here, and I think he's got a much better than a plus 285 chance to score. Then on the other side of things, just clear, don't overthink it, Spot. I know Amon Ra hasn't scored in the last three games, but we're getting a guy who leads the league in red zone targets this year with, I think, 17. He's been absolutely phenomenal this year. The volume has been incredible. 11-plus targets in all but one game so far this season. It's just a spot here where I'm not overthinking getting a guy at plus odds, especially going up against a Vikings defense that blitzes at a huge rate. So he's probably going to get a lot of quick passes in the red zone. Both these teams are pretty big pass funnels. So Gibbs probably not going to be able to do as much as he has been all season long in the run game versus this tough Vikings run defense, which means more volume for Amon Ra in the red zone. And I love him at plus 130. Yeah, I think this game.
00:23:36
Speaker 1: And again, kudos to Brian Flores and the Vikings defense for how good they've looked through six games. But I feel like they're getting maybe like a little too much credit where now we're overcorrecting on some stuff. Like, for example, this is a total of game at 46 and a half. It's the first game that the Lions have played in this year that has a total less than 50. And I think we're seeing prices reflective of that. But for me, I feel like both of these teams can explode on offense at any time. Again, TJ Hawkinson, great matchup, and you're getting Amon Ra, who is typically at minus 120, minus 125, depending on the matchup. You're getting him at plus 130. You probably wouldn't have it at those odds if he had just got one of those J-Mo touchdowns last week because he was going down the field. He had nine catches for 140 yards in that game. Again, Amon Ra, St. Brown at plus 130. I thought Justin Jefferson would probably be the biggest mispriced in this game around plus 180, and it's like, nah, Sun God plus 130 is still looking really good. So let's now move to Titans at Bengals. This one last week I had T. Higgins. T. Higgins is now close to about plus 110 to score a touchdown this week. So I'm going to take this running mate who's also plus odds. I'm going to take Jamar Chase. I'm seeing him at 80%. plus 110 right now at one spot, plus 105 at another. If you can get a plus odds, please take that Jamar Chase. He's starting to heat up. He scored a touchdown of four or seven, five touchdowns overall. I don't think I need to get into too much about how good Jamar Chase is, but I think the upside for this Bengals passing offense is going to be there for a lot of games, just given how much they've abandoned the run, even in games where they've been leading, like against the Buccaneers, for example, in week one or against the Dolphins. their run efficiency and execution has just not been there. They're last in rush attempts per game, bottom three in rush yards per game. So if the Bengals are going to continue to lean on the pass the way they are, like the receivers, I think have such big upsides. So if you can get Jamar Chase at plus odds, that's where you want to go on the Bengals' side. On the Titans' side, and this is the case for pretty much every Titans' game, All the touchdown value is on the Titans side because they just have completely shaded up every player except for Tony Pollard to score a touchdown. So I am going to take the guy that I took two weeks ago. He still saw a red zone target in that game, but did not catch it. It is Alec Ayamanor. He is around plus 650. I think I saw a plus 700 earlier in the day as well, but anything over six to one. I love this price. Look, now he's only got one touchdown. But he saw a huge boost in playing time in Week 7. Part of that is because Calvin Ridley was out. But even if Calvin Ridley plays, I don't think he's going to be getting the share of snaps that he was normally playing in the first four to five weeks, just given the reduction in playing time, the emergence of, you know, a Carnell Tate, a Kamiri Dike, Aya Minoru. There's a lot of different guys that are looking for opportunities in this offense. And Calvin Ridley, I think, is just kind of being phased out. And he did miss practice on Wednesday. We'll see how it goes here on Thursday. But for Aya Minoru... The Titans continuously try to get him involved, especially in scoring situations. He leads the team with five end zone targets, and he's tied with Wandale Robinson with eight red zone targets. And he's had at least one red zone target in all but one game. So pretty consistent effort from the Titans. Now, again, it is the Titans offense. Cam Ward, I'm not exactly thrilled with some of his quarterback play this year. But again, at plus 600, I'm going to take this receiver, the second year receiver, Imanor. to get another touchdown this year. I love it. Anything over plus 600. All right. We are now moving to the 4 p.m. slate. We just finished up the 1 o'clock slate here, but we are going to start with you, Sean, and you alluded to this, that you do have the Chargers game. So Chargers at Rams, what are your favorite touchdown score props for this game?
00:27:31
Speaker 4: This is by far my favorite game as a resident L.A., But also, this is my costume. Finally get to the game for my costume. I'm Hunter S. McDaniel in Fear and Loathing in Los Angeles. So let's get to it. On the Chargers side, I keep saying, like, I'm Mike McDaniel's vape pen. They're impossible to project week to week because I never have a clue what they're going to do, especially with the running back rotation. They've had this, you know, very volatile three-way running back committee, you know, the last month or so. So heading into the bye, I'm trying to figure out what McDaniel's vape pen is telling him because his job.
00:28:09
Speaker 1: Is on the line.
00:28:09
Speaker 4: So I'm thinking he's going to scheme up more plays for Kamani Vidal at plus 500 because Vidal's been the most efficient back of the backfield. You know, their offensive line is the cause of everything here. But, you know, both Hampton and Keaton Mitchell are averaging less than four yards a carry. Vidal's averaging over five yards. So his playing time's gone up. Each of the last three games, he also kind of profiles as more of a pass catching back anyway. So I could just see him being way more involved here, coming out of the bye. McDaniel's job's on the line. That's where I'm going here. So give me Vidal at plus 500. And on the other side, where does Sean Kerner's vape pen tell him to go with the Ram side? And this is a no-brainer. Obviously, Sean Kerner's vape pen's going to tell him to just parlay both Kyron Williams and Blake Corham together at plus 395 for both of them to score. I mean, because everybody knows I'm the biggest Blake Korn fan in the world. I think he's the best backup running back in the league. If Kyron were to ever miss a game due to injury, you know, Korn would be like a top 10, top five running back. In fantasy, he's just never been given that chance. But that doesn't mean that I don't think Kyron's also one of the best backs in the league. I think this is the best running back duo. In the league, obviously. But also, Matthew Stafford's been targeting both backs way more in the passing game this year, so that's just an additional pass. for them to score. And no Devontae Adams means just everybody on the Rams has hired touchdown upside right now until he returns. So this is a game they could get up early, you know, lean on the run a lot more. So just, I'm going to parlay Kyron and Coram here at plus 395. I couldn't believe the odds on this, but love this one.
00:30:00
Speaker 1: Well, I think there's probably this idea that for a general better who would look at that and say, well, they can't both score in the same game. And it's like, well, no, no, no. That's actually more common than you think. This year it's already happened two or three times that Corham scored. Kyron scored as well. Looking back last year, it happened in four of seven games. So, again, it's very common in this offense, especially, again, Devontae Adams being out just completely– changes kind of the way I think the Rams offense operates. The only question that I had, I was surprised you didn't take your guy orange over Vidal. I mean, five to one, you're still looking good at five to one for him or even keep Mitchell at five to one. But Gadsden, I would have thought for sure would have been your pick.
00:30:45
Speaker 4: Well, again, you're assuming you can understand what McDaniel is going to do week to week. I was actually going to go with Scott Matlock 50 to one.
00:30:53
Speaker 1: Oh yeah.
00:30:53
Speaker 4: You'd have to go with the most bizarre crap, but I think since his job is on the line, I was trying to stick with the running back. But yeah, obviously, I love my guy Orange. But Charlie Kohler is their lead tight end right now. So, I mean, can't go with the tight end. So, I had to go with the running back. And I just feel with his job on the line, he might scheme up more work for Vidal here. But again, who the hell knows? It might be the last week we even get to make fun of McDaniel.
00:31:26
Speaker 1: Well, I mean... if Hayden Rucci is their leading scorer again, we might, we might have to at this point. So, all right. Kamani Vidal on the Chargers side with a Kyron Blake fear and loathing in Los Angeles parlay at plus 395. Okay. Let's move to, oh, this one's a good one. Patriots at Dolphins. So this is in Miami. We know historically kind of how the Patriots tend to play in Miami, but again, that's long time ago, but trends are trends. We'll see how that plays out. Grant, you got this one. Who do you like to score Patriots at Dolphins?
00:32:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, starting off on the Patriots side of things because it's the easier one of the two because the Dolphins are just disgusting. We're going with Eli Reardon. You can find him at plus 450. Hunter Henry is obviously on the team, and he's obviously better tight end. But the snap count difference between the two hasn't been drastic, about 10% to 20%. With Reardon playing over 50% of snaps each of the last four weeks. He has a red zone target over each of the last four weeks. He actually has the same amount of red zone targets as Hunter Henry this season, and he's been playing well recently and getting some good volume, 50 plus receiving yards in two of the last three weeks. So he's a pretty big part of this offense. The matchup here isn't a terrible one. Obviously, this game could get a hand and they might not be passing, but it's a divisional game. It's It's Miami versus New England. We've seen it before in the past where it seems like a lock and somehow into the close. But Raritan, I think his odds are a bit too high, plus 450. On the Miami side, I didn't want to take anyone. They're disgusting. I mean, I don't know. I don't know what to do with them. They're going to be bad for a while. But Malik Washington, dude, is seeing a lot of volume. He has in the red zone this year, which they've had very few red zone trips this year. He's got three rushing attempts, two targets in the red zone this year. He's the main wide receiver in this absolutely disgusting offense. He's playing 80% plus the stats virtually every single week. So because of that, I'm going for Malik Washington to score his first touchdown of the year at plus 340.
00:33:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. It was pretty tough to look through when I was trying to identify kind of a prop for Miami. I mean, I toyed with Greg Dulcich. I was like, maybe, maybe we just go two touchdowns, Ollie Gordon. Like it just, it didn't feel great either way, but I think Malik Washington, uh, not that I would lean on what Sean would say that I'm saying that he's due, but hell he is due. Uh, but I'm just saying Malik Washington definitely has, uh, a bigger role in this offense than I think people realize, especially after Caleb Douglas went for two touchdowns last week. I think people might have forgot that leading into that game, it was Malik Washington who was still getting majority of the touches. All right, let's move now to our last game of the 4 p.m. slate, and that is Chiefs at Broncos. So I got this game, and I'm going to take the two guys that I took in week one when these two teams played, and I'm going to take them again. So we're Jalen Waddell could potentially miss this game. Left last game with a chest injury. Didn't see him practice on Wednesday. I think there's a chance that he could get held out this week just to recover. And I think that's just only going to boost Sutton. He only has one touchdown this year, but five end zone targets. Has all those receiver metrics that you feel good about betting on him. Like he's going to lead the team in snaps played, routes run. first read target share, all that good stuff, but it's the Broncos. You know how it is. Like we took RJ Harvey last week. I'll be honest. We got kind of lucky on it because he only played like a handful of snaps, took one to the house and, you know, we're happy to walk away with a win, but that's the kind of thing that you're dealing with, with the Broncos offense that they're very gimmicky. But I think Sutton is still one of those players that they still try to make a part of a weekly routine of getting him at least one target or putting them in scoring position. And the Chiefs, They've shifted their defense a little bit this year under Spagnuolo a little bit more. They're playing less man coverage, but a lot more too high safety. And that's actually been good for Sutton, who's been pretty good against zone and very good against too high safety. But I think he's going to see some one-on-one matchups versus rookie corner Mansoor Delane. And even as good as Mansoor Delane is, I still think Sutton has the capability and talent to win that matchup in the end zone. So if Bo Nix actually plays to his potential, doesn't need to run for 75 yards for a touchdown and is throwing the ball, and we see more of what we saw over the recent weeks under Sean Payton instead of what we saw in week one, I love the price then that we're getting on Cortland Sutton. On the cheap side, this one is super frustrating because this guy just can't understand why he hasn't been able to be as efficient as he was in his rookie year. And that is Xavier Worthy. And he's around plus 270. Been a pretty big disappointment overall this year. But even as disappointing as he has been, he still leads the team in red zone targets. He still leads the team in deep targets. First read target share. He runs around on 85% of dropbacks. He's going to get carries out of the backfield. I think because of what we saw in week one, and then of course watching Seattle just crush this Chiefs offense last week, I think some of these numbers are still a little... not adjusted enough for what we could see from this Chiefs offense I think we're seeing more prices of like that's what we're going to see what we saw last week as opposed to what we saw during the season so I feel like from a Chiefs standpoint outside of Kenneth Walker Worthy is really the only Chief left that could provide like explosive plays downfield and with Taequann Thornton out now and just they're kind of down to bare bones as far as their talent players that they can trust so Xavier Worthy is the only chief outside of maybe Travis Kelsey that I know that is going to play almost every snap and definitely all the high leverage snaps near the red zone. So I'm going to take Xavier Worthy at plus 270 and Courtland Sutton at plus 250. Okay, let's move to Sunday night football. And as we normally do with the primetime games, we don't assign it to each one person. We like to do a parlay for each one of these, give our favorite touchdown prop from each of us. So I'll start off. I am going to take for this Eagles at commanders game. I'm going to take Dallas Goddard. And I know that obviously you got Tanner McKee under center. But again, you're facing a Washington defense that just is not very strong defending the pass. They've been giving up a few touchdowns and tight ends this year. And at least Dallas Goddard, you know, is one of the few healthy options, at least from a pass catcher standpoint, for the Eagles. So I'll take Dallas Goddard to start us off. Grant, where are you going for your touchdown prop for Eagles at Commanders?
00:38:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, going with a guy that came through on Monday night for us.
00:38:17
Speaker 4: Sure did.
00:38:17
Speaker 3: Mekhi Lemon, plus 320, I think is the current line. Uh, obviously beginning of the season did not have much of a role that has changed over the last four games, six plus targets in each of those games only has one red zone target on the year. And that was last week. We don't know about the status of Smith. We don't know about the status of Barkley. We don't know about the status of Wicks. So Lemon could jump into that same role he had last week. You mentioned commanders have not been great versus the past this year. Um, while they have been drastically worse versus tight ends than wide receivers, uh, Still have not been great, so Lemon plus 320 is a bit too high.
00:38:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean, again, we're Thursday afternoon, but if Devontae Smith isn't playing, Makai Lemon looks great here. So at that price, it's definitely worth getting ahead of because that price will probably drop if Smith is ruled inactive. So Dallas Goddard, Makai Lemon, those are the first two legs for our Sunday Night Football Touchdown Parlay. Kerner, where are you going with your bet?
00:39:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, you guys took the only two Eagles we even know are playing This week. So I wanted to go with the commander for a parlay and more of a long shot. Let's get this thing over a hundred to one. So I'm going to go with the Ami Brown right around plus, uh, seven 50 plus 800. Uh, just because, you know, Terry McLaurin out everyone in the wide receiver room, uh, gets a boost. Even sugar Quanko gets a boost. Uh, and my guy, I'm very high on rookie Antonio Williams, but this is a game where the commanders could play with the lead, be a little bit more run heavy, uh, And those are the snaps that Deami Brown was actually in on after Terry went down last week. So I think this is kind of a sneaky spot for him and probably the receiver. Nobody wants to bet. That's why his odds are up here, but I'm showing pretty good value at plus 800. I actually think he should be closer, like plus 600, just given his role in this potential game script. So I'm going to go with this one. Cause I think this gets us over a hundred to one.
00:40:11
Speaker 1: It, Well, it does, yeah. And I think just to comment about the receiver that nobody wants to bet, I think it's because everybody's wanting to bet probably Traylon Burks or, you know, Stephon Diggs and even Antonio Williams to a lesser extent. But, again, Diami Brown, we've seen him catch some deep shots in this offense and just in the NFL. So, again, Brown plus 750, that's easily going to take us over the 100-1. Right now, when you pair Dallas Goddard, Makai Lemon, and Diami Brown together for touchdown props for Sunday Night Football, 130-1.
00:40:38
Speaker 3: So.
00:40:40
Speaker 1: That's what we're talking about where we want to get spicy for Sunday night football. So that's the parlay we're going to do for Eagles at Commanders. This one I'm not as high on for scoring, but we're going to do a touchdown parlay anyway. That is Bears at Seahawks. I'm going to do the first leg. I'm going to keep it real simple. Jackson Smith and Jigba, set it and forget it. We're going to have that as the anchor leg of this parlay. It doesn't matter what defense he's playing against. He is, I think he's taken the role now. He is the number one wide receiver in the NFL. He could score against any defense, and you know that he's going to see at least a 30% target share. So let's start us off with JSN, Jackson Smith and Jigba, anytime touchdown. Grant, your Seahawks are playing Monday Night Football. Who are you betting to score a touchdown?
00:41:25
Speaker 3: A guy who I bet a lot this season and it has not worked out well at all, and you talk about a guy that's due, there are two receivers slash tight ends in the league with six or more red zone targets this year who have not scored a receiving touchdown. One is, strangely enough, Kendrick Bourne. Did not see that one coming. The other one is A.J. Barner. A.J. Barner is currently sitting at plus 225. He is the second red zone option in this receiving game, and it's not even that distanced. uh jsn has 12 red zone targets on the year barner has seven this is a guy who is the clear second option he's the tush push guy he already has one rushing touchdown on the season so we can get it done in two different ways at some point he needs to score receiving touchdown after last season he was great with six receiving touchdowns zero so far through seven games i hope this is the spot i think this should be the spot but Grant, I've said that before. It just has to happen at some point.
00:42:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, 10 receiving touchdowns in the previous two years. The falloff of Barners receiving touchdowns this season should be studied by fantasy communities for years to figure out what happened here because... I'm with you, man. I don't like to subscribe to the he's due routine very often, but this guy is so due. I can't think of another player, especially on the Seahawks, that needs to score a receiving touchdown so we can just get some of our winnings back from betting them every week so far this year. So JSN and AJ Barner, those are the first two touchdown props that we like for Bears at Seahawks for Monday Night Football. Kerner, round us out. What do you like to pick for a touchdown for Monday Night Football?
00:43:06
Speaker 4: Colson Loveland here at plus 215. Had a bit of a rough start to the season, but Loveland's season is officially underway now, especially with Cole Komet now out for the season. I think Loveland's playing time and usage can only go up. And this is obviously a brutal matchup against the Seahawks, but they use a ton of cover six, try to limit explosive plays. And there's only been five Caleb dropbacks this year against cover six. But if you look at last year, Loveland led the team with a 3.1 yards per route run against cover six. So kind of a sneaky spot to still keep him going and what should be a low scoring game. But if they do score, I think he'd be one of the most likely bears to do it. All right.
00:43:51
Speaker 1: So JSN, AJ Barner, Colston Loveland, you put those three together for Monday night football that comes up to 20 to one. at DraftKings for those three touchdown scores. Now, before we get out of here, we got one more parlay to do. This is our favorite touchdown scores for the week, and it is presented by DraftKings. So this can be from any game, and then we're going to parlay them together over on DraftKings. Kerner, why don't you start us off? What is your favorite touchdown score prop for week eight?
00:44:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to go with Zay Flowers right around plus 140 here. And what should be a shootout? against the bill so i just think there's going to be a lot of scoring here so that's why i like it but also just flowers has been playing an elite level uh this year and could be getting you know lamar jackson back this week and i think lamar he might not be 100 so he might not scramble as much lean on you know targeting his guy and zay here a bit more so um love his upside in the spot against the bills um so yeah give me zay flowers at plus 140.
00:44:51
Speaker 1: All right, so Zay Flowers, that is from Kerner. Grant, what is your favorite touchdown score for Week 8?
00:44:57
Speaker 3: Rolling with TJ Hawkinson. Again, the tight end versus the worst tight end defense in the league by a very wide margin. Getting him at plus 285 is just silly.
00:45:10
Speaker 1: All right, and I am... I'm going to do a same-game parlay within this parlay, Kerner. I'm going back to that Bills-Ravens game. But I'm going to take DJ Moore to score a touchdown. Two games where he missed. Now they're coming off by. So we're finally getting DJ Moore healthy again. And in two, quote-unquote, healthy games this year, he's produced eight targets on a touchdown versus the Texans and ten targets versus the Chargers.
00:45:36
Speaker 4: So.
00:45:37
Speaker 1: And in those two games, his targets for route run was like 0.37. And just to put that in context, like if that was over a full season, that would rank higher than like Puka Nakua or Jackson Smith Najigba. So obviously a bit of a small sample, but again, we're seeing that the bills are shown to use him heavily in this offense. So DJ Moore, I love him to score an anytime touchdown in this game. So let's see here. We put this parlay together. You have Zay Flowers, TJ Hawkinson, and DJ Moore. You put those three together at DraftKings, that probably comes out to just under 26 to 1, so plus 25.95. So those are our favorite touchdown scores for Week 8 presented by DraftKings. Don't forget to download the DraftKings Sports app. Use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when you sign up for a great offer. DraftKings, the crown is yours. So that'll do it for us here on the Touchdown Show with the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings. My thanks to Sean Kerner and Grant Neifert for joining me as always. And check out Playbook on X for quick slips on these plays or visit actionnetwork.com slash bet now if you want to tail any of these bets. Make sure to subscribe to the podcast. You won't miss anything for the rest of the NFL season. So I want to thank you again for listening or watching the Action Network podcast. We'll see you next week.
00:47:02
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