00:00:05
Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: What is up, Straight Fire fam? It's me, Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire. For Thursday, October the 1st. A lot of people say October is the best month on the sports calendar. You know I'm a November guy. I love October. Postseason baseball is great. We had our first elimination on Wednesday afternoon with the Houston Astros.
00:00:35
Speaker 3: Buh-bye.
00:00:36
Speaker 2: See you later. The White Sox advancing, and I'm a bit of a surprise. I did not know the White Sox were good at all this year. I'm recording this as the Yankees lead the Red Sox 3-1. I think it's the seventh inning. The only reason I'm recording it early is because I'm going to the Bruno Mars concert. at SoFi tonight. I guess it's his first night in LA. My family decided we're going to do it up big. I will probably post some photos on Instagram, and you will laugh at me for the outfit that we're going to do, but I digress. Today's guest is spectacular. His name is Will Hill. You can catch him on the Bear Bets podcast. He's on VEASAN all the time. The guy is a gambling maven. We talk NFL, a little college football as well, and Survivor, for those of you still alive. Will is alive. I think you're going to really enjoy it. So without further ado, here is Will Hill. You know a guy.
00:01:30
Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.
00:01:34
Speaker 2: I know what sports fans want.
00:01:36
Speaker 1: But for everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does.
00:01:39
Speaker 3: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.
00:01:45
Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome back to Straight Fire, a gambling guy you know well. He's all over VEASAN, which is increasingly putting out good content. And you can also catch him on the Bear Bets podcast.
00:01:58
Speaker 3: Will Hill.
00:01:58
Speaker 2: Will, how's it going, my man?
00:02:00
Speaker 3: J-Mac, always good to see you, man. Appreciate you having me. We got to do a home and home. I've had you on my podcast. Should have been more podcasts before. And it's always good to catch up. Fun time of the year, man. Baseball playoffs, WNBA playoffs, football. It feels like, you know what? You're so excited for football to get here and you blink and it's week four, which it is.
00:02:19
Speaker 2: Well, I guess we can start to throw out priors pretty soon, or maybe you keep them longer. But it's interesting you say that. So quick question. October, really good for sports, right? You get baseball playoffs. Is November better? Because it maybe has some World Series games, but it also has college basketball, which I geek out on, and the NBA.
00:02:37
Speaker 3: It's close. I'll still go with October. I do love that sort of feast week, that November week.
00:02:42
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:02:43
Speaker 3: You know, if you're lucky, you're home, and it's just college basketball. It's almost like the conference tournament week or March Madness week. There's so many tournaments. It used to be Maui. I know they've replaced that with the newer one. But that's a great week. And now we get an NFL game on Black Friday. Not only Black Friday, but the night before Thanksgiving. That's close. That's as good a week as there is in sports. I'll still take October, but your point is well taken. And that week of Thanksgiving is about as good as anything. especially all the college football rivalries. That's an awesome, awesome week.
00:03:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, for sure. I'm just a college hoops nerd. Uh, it's funny. I started some guys put out like free previews and I just started digging into them. And I, I don't know about you, but I do have to start with this, uh, AI stuff. Um, I'd never built an NFL gambling model or anything of that sort. And I tinkered with a world cup one this summer and dude, it was, it was really successful after like struggles at the beginning. And I started one for NFL first week was not good because there's no data. And dude, the last two weeks, eight and two, and I'm starting to put stuff in the college basketball model.
00:03:41
Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
00:03:42
Speaker 2: Are you using a lot of AI for sports gambling?
00:03:45
Speaker 3: I'm not, but I've been told that I need to start, that people that have started to do it say, man, it just makes your life so much easier where, you know what, you set this stuff up and you type in Delaware football and you just get a, you spit out everything about Delaware football that you need to know. It saves you so much time. So I feel like it's one of those things, if you're not doing it, which I'm not, you're behind. So I will maybe have to pick their brain here and get more insight into how do you build your model? What have you done here with your NFL model?
00:04:11
Speaker 2: Oh, you can just get any data you want, EPA, success rate, give the link to Claude or Google Gemini, whatever you want to use, and just say, hey, I value this. Here are where you can find injury reports. Here are the depth charts. Can you rank players so that if the right guard is out for the Chiefs, you know, that that's not worth a point against the spread, but like if he's a seven out of 10, right. Is he worth a 10th of a point to the spread? And if there's a cluster injury, how does that impact? And like, for instance, the Panthers this week have big, big injuries at quarterback and the model loves Detroit, even though the line is a little high Detroit on the road. It looks like there could be some weather, but like, I'm just obsessed with this stuff. I'm not going to lie. Well, it is the most fun I've had gambling because listen, it's fun for you and I to discuss, for instance, you know, Brown Steelers, right? There's all these trends out there that exist. Do you want to lean on first-time head coaches Thursday night football? It's a doomsday. Or, hey, the Browns, they're amazing on Thursday night football. Like, those are fun to talk about, but I don't know. The computer's smarter than you and I. Shouldn't I ask the computer, like, hey, what do you think? And the computer's telling me there's value on Pittsburgh at two and a half.
00:05:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, that computer, unfortunately, is going to replace all of us doing everything at some point, it seems like. But no, it's 100% true. These are tools that are at your disposal, at our disposal. And yeah, I think what you're doing is probably smart. You're taking advantage of them.
00:05:40
Speaker 2: So Brown Steelers, do you have anything?
00:05:43
Speaker 1: We don't.
00:05:44
Speaker 2: I'm in the Circa Million, so I haven't. I don't think I put it in Thursday Night Game in a while. So despite the model liking Pittsburgh. Now, this could change based on what money comes in and the lines move. I'm sure you're watching Circa and Pinnacle and all the important books. Do you have anything on this game?
00:06:01
Speaker 3: I like the over, I think, more than anything. I think Cleveland's got some underrated skill guys, and they have just a lot of young players in general. But Concepcion and Boston, the two rookie receivers, Judkins, Fannin, that's a nice little nucleus now, the big if, the big but. You've got to get Watson to play somewhat decent, but he's played okay well enough the last couple weeks to beat 2-1-1. And if you look at Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh's a strange team to figure out. Every time you trust them a little, they lose a game they shouldn't. Every time you count them out, like last week, they come back and they look pretty good. Rodgers has thrown the ball downfield, J-Mac. He has thrown the ball deeper than usual. And McCarthy said coming into the season, hey, we want to stretch the field. We want to throw it downfield. Two of the first three games, average depth of target over 10 yards. If you've got an average depth of target over 10 yards and you're throwing it deep, Browns, I like their skill, guys. The total's 38.5, man. In this modern NFL where the kickers can kick it from anywhere, field position is better, 38.5 is a low, low number. So I know Cleveland's played much better defense at home as opposed to on the road in recent years, but I like that over 38.5 more than anything.
00:07:04
Speaker 2: So another aspect of the model is like the quarterbacks versus man versus zone. And that's a big difference. And like Bryce Young last week, really struggles against man. He can't throw guys open. He can pick apart zones. Well, Cleveland plays heavy man. So like, this is something I would ask the model. Hey, what defense does Pittsburgh play? And how does it, or Cleveland man, and how does Aaron Rodgers do against man in Pittsburgh? Now it hasn't been long, obviously, 15 game sample size, but I don't know about Rodgers against that pressure. I mean, Mason Graham looked incredible last week coming up the middle. I saw Daniel Jeremiah saying he could be like a defensive player of the year candidate eventually Verso will do something. Not afraid to go against that Browns dog pound vibe, huh?
00:07:50
Speaker 3: Well, I think if Rogers, if you can give him time, because he's not the guy he was at 26 where he could scramble, make plays with his legs and throw the ball downfield. So if you get pressure on him, you think of the Texans game last year on Monday night in the playoffs, or he's just, he was, he was me, he was cooked and you get pressure on him. He's done. But if you give him time, he can still make the throws. The arm is still there. I mean, that's a guy just natural arm talent. That arm talent is going to be there until he's 50. I mean, he's, He's just that naturally gifted as a thrower, and you combine that with the willingness to push the ball down the field. I'll take a shot here over 38.5. it's interesting.
00:08:36
Speaker 2: He looks so bad against the Patriots, right? Get crushed in the pocket. And then he comes back against a Bengals D that everybody thought was, was back and just cooked him. I, that's the thing. I don't, some of these teams it's so early. I don't really understand. I want to ask you, I know you do a lot of stuff for visa and obviously what are you making of this Raiders team? That's three, you know, uh, they are, I think they're cooking in three, you know, against the spread. Um, And it's just one of those situations where I'm like, are they good? I'm still asking myself, is Vegas good? And I ask that because as I look at the numbers, they're kind of big home dogs here to Kansas City.
00:09:11
Speaker 3: Not buying it yet. I still think you can poke holes. They played Miami. All right. Nice win against the Saints. John Blank, who they played.
00:09:20
Speaker 1: Chargers.
00:09:21
Speaker 3: Okay. Chargers, maybe not what we thought they were. I don't think they are what we thought they were. Look, impressive start, 3-0, and look, if they win this week, 4-0, now you really have to start taking them seriously. Now it's like a Super Bowl contender, but I think right now they're basically a coin flip to make the playoffs. Right now, if you had to ask me, yes, no playoffs, even with the 3-0 start, even with the fact, hey, 3-0, if you just go, what, 7-6 the rest of the way, you're looking at a 10-win team, I'm not there yet. You guys just got 14 games. I'm not there yet. I still think they missed the playoffs. I think the Chiefs, who play well in that building, will come in and take care of business. I do like, from a betting standpoint, though, Bowers, I think, is over his 75.5. this week. He is a monster player. I don't know if tight ends usually don't win. I don't say usually. Never win Offensive Player of the Year. He's incredible. Last week, 10 catches, 13 targets, 115 yards. He's really not a tight end. He's more of a receiver than a tight end, but he is just an awesome player. I would look towards Bowers over us, but I'm not quite buying the Raiders yet. Fun story, though. Fun story and very funny. The longer Cousins plays well, the more Mendoza is going to be stuck to that bench.
00:10:24
Speaker 2: Well, I don't like that. And like you said, they're probably, would you say, coin flip to make the playoffs? Because they got Chiefs and then Patriots, Bills, Rams. That's a tough, they're probably going to lose four in a row, right?
00:10:36
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:10:37
Speaker 2: That would be my guess. You still have San Fran. You've got Seattle. You've got Denver twice. Yeah, this schedule, Kansas City twice. I mean, eventually the Chargers will probably wake up. Yeah, I would agree with you. I don't think they're going to make the playoffs. Is there anything you see on the Sunday card that really jumps out at you? You know, $ 100, 000 bets you're making. I know you're a big baller.
00:11:00
Speaker 3: Well, it's ugly. It's ugly, but Minnesota's a team I liked coming into the season. I thought there was some value on them. They've been pretty fortunate to be 3-0. I would actually take Miami plus the 10.5. I don't like the matchup. Willow's first floor scares the hell out of me. The defensive coordinator for us is as good as it gets, and Will was thrown against that defense. That's scary. But Miami, their real weakness, J-Mac, is the secondary, and the Vikings just don't have the passing game to exploit that. They have not thrown the ball well at all. They had nine first downs last week. The week before, they won without scoring a touchdown. They won 9-3. And then in week one, they were down 12 middle of the third quarter. They have been fortunate, even though they were one of my teams that I thought was a sleeper before the season. Hasn't looked great with Murray. I don't know that Jefferson's going to play. I think that 10.5 is a tad high here against the Dolphins. You're right.
00:11:45
Speaker 2: That's a big number. This is one thing the model can't calculate. Flores' revenge game. I would assume he'll want to put Willis in a body bag. No H-hand. I know you picked up Ollie Gordon in fantasy, but I watched Gordon last week, man. I mean, I don't see the juice. I don't see the pop. I don't see the receiving group. It's a hold-your-nose plug-and-play, right, if you want to ride the Dolphins?
00:12:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, and look, you know this from betting the NFL. You got to take some teams that make you uncomfortable. You got to take quarterbacks that make you uncomfortable. If it was as simple as just betting on Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes every week, we'd all be rich and living in Michigan. It's not that easy. You got to take some bad teams and some bad quarterbacks.
00:12:27
Speaker 2: Well, actually, you probably could get rich just betting on Josh Allen every week because he's the guy's a machine. That Bill's Patriots game, I don't know. Where are you leaning on that one? You do well in the six and a half.
00:12:40
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:12:41
Speaker 3: I would like a seven. Anytime the line is six and a half. Anytime the line is two and a half. You like the dog. Just like in a three, you might get a seven. I'd probably again, plug my nose. I hate laying points in the NFL. I probably take the points with new England figure. You know what? Just forget what you saw last week. And I know it's a disturbing trend now for the Patriots. And for may, may has not played well here for a really big sample. And that's, About as random a drop-off as you're going to have to be that second-year player, almost win the MVP. You could really make a case he should have been the MVP. Now he's just been mediocre here really since the start of the playoffs. Maybe the shoulder's still bothering him. I'll buy low on the Patriots, though. This is a desperation spot. Let's say it's a must-win, but you know what, J-Mac? If you lose this game, you're three and a half games out of the AFC East a couple days into October. This is basically for the division. If you lose this, you're done in terms of the division. I'll say it's more of a field goal game. I'll say the Patriots, you know, Vrabel's good as an underdog, but... I was not high on the Patriots team coming into the season. I thought Superbowl hangover did much different, more difficult schedule and the whole Vrabel distraction. Maybe I'm trying to catch a falling knife here, but it would be Patriots or pass for me. Not that I love it, but I just, I don't like taking points, laying points in the NFL.
00:13:46
Speaker 2: I think I'm with you. Let me ask about this Vrabel stuff. So I'm sure you recall the Tiger Woods drama. His obviously was to a much greater extent than Vrabel's off season issues. Um, But the funniest theory I saw, people were trying to say like, oh, Vrabel doesn't like Drake May and Vrabel shot that down instantly. I know it's more fodder for a bar room, but is there a world where Vrabel thrived in chaos, meaning his life was upside down now that it's all clean and he's cleaned up?
00:14:17
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:14:18
Speaker 2: Is there any, you think there's anything there at all?
00:14:22
Speaker 3: It's hard to know, but you know what I was saying when this broke in, what was it, April last year? You can't say it's a positive. You could say it doesn't matter. You could say, you know what, the players don't care about this stuff. Maybe it's true. It's either a net negative or it's nothing. It's either nothing. There's no way it's a positive, whether it's distraction, you know, he's missing days in the draft, whether the players look at him differently. And there is some contradiction to these guys. They preach team first, no distractions, be a good guy off the field, on the field, all this stuff. And then you're out there doing that and you become a distraction. That would probably make you look at your coach a little different, at least for some people. So... I'm worried about New England. I think it's fair to worry about them. 1-2, the schedule is much different than it was last year, much more difficult than it was last year. You lose this week, which they're supposed to, 1-3. That's not a death sentence, but, man, that's pretty close. I think the Patriots certainly have some issues here. You've got to figure out what's going on with May.
00:15:12
Speaker 2: It feels to me like Houston is probably the most must-win. They got to the playoffs after 0-3 last year, but 0-4 would be virtually impossible. I guess mathematically, you can't pull that off. That being said, they are favored. Looks like two and a half. Motto really likes Houston here at two and a half. Do you have anything on this one? Dallas coming off the Rio disaster. There isn't a lot of data, I don't think. Was this the first game in Rio ever or second?
00:15:41
Speaker 3: They played a couple Friday night games the last couple years. Remember Chiefs-Chargers last year and then two years ago? It was Packers-Eagles. The field were a mess. Both games went over. I would go over here, and I think you're starting to see some threes here. Texans have not been as good defensively. They've been a little bit better offensively. And Dallas, for all the talk, the defense is going to be improved, which I'll put my hand up. I thought it would be improved. It really hasn't looked great. They've been an over team. Baltimore lit them up last week. Even the Giants and the Commanders had success offensively against them. It would be, I think we're looking at 48, 48 and a half. Dallas is going to get in the mid-20s, high 20s against pretty much everyone, if not more. I'd go over 48 and a half.
00:16:18
Speaker 2: Interesting. So, Nico Collins might be the reason. It looks like he practiced light practice. I just worry about those soft tissue injuries, man. If he gives it a go, like their offense this season and in the postseason just looks dreadful without him. You can't move the ball against a freaking Colt. You know, they're not respecting the run. I mean, Montgomery looks like a bust. He was awesome in week one with Nico Collins out there. But now you don't have to keep a safety over the top. Yeah, I'm worried about Houston. I just don't know if that's a full-on play. That being said, let's go to the Bears. So I'm seeing breaking news as we record this on Wednesday that Ben Johnson knows who the quarterback is going to be, but he's not announcing it yet for the big showdown with the Jets. Short week. My Jets have looked pretty good. Gino Smith was phenomenal 31-37 in Detroit. Now he goes outdoors. I haven't checked the weather yet. I think Chicago's going to be the side again here, but it's probably going to be the public side. Anything on this game?
00:17:17
Speaker 3: I like the Jets. Jets have been feisty. They should have beaten the Packers. They took care of the Titans, which, I mean, that's not saying much, obviously. But you mentioned that Gino Smith has played well. I don't think the defense is as good as it was last year. It's amazing they still haven't gotten interception all of last year, all of this year. It's just a ridiculous streak. But I would think it's case game. How could he play that well as a backup, third string? And then you're going to not play him the next week. You're going to go back to Badgett.
00:17:43
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:17:43
Speaker 3: I would think it's going to be Keenum, and I would expect Keenum to not play as well this week. Obviously, you've got to give Ben Flowers his accolades. He's been incredible to do that with Keenum. He's a superstar coach, and you're starting to see, you know, probably a big reason why the Lions were so successful offensively all those years with him. But 3.5 is, you know, it's a key number. Could this be a field goal game? Jets lose it, you know, 23-20, something like that. I think it's very possible here. I'll take the points with the Jets.
00:18:08
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at FoxSportsRadio.com. And within the iHeartRadio app, search FSR to listen live.
00:18:20
Speaker 2: This is interesting. So would it change your outlook if it was Bajan and not Keenum?
00:18:25
Speaker 3: Not really.
00:18:26
Speaker 2: No, okay.
00:18:27
Speaker 3: I just don't know that Keenum can do it two weeks in a row. Exactly. I think that was a little bit of a mirage.
00:18:31
Speaker 2: And my guess is he starts Beijing because now if you're the Jets, who do you prepare for? And he knows Aaron Glenn's defense as well from his time in Detroit. Good point. Again, as a Jets fan, I know people hate when I say this. I want close losses. Well, that's what I want. I don't need the wins. I want my pick of the literate quarterback. You know, last time we won meaningless games, we ended up with Zach Wilson and not Trevor Lawrence. And I had that workout. Zach Wilson's pumping gas in Utah right now, I think. So I want my now I don't know who that quarterback is. You're a big college football guy. I see you tweeting about college football. Yes. On Saturdays. Have you seen a quarterback that you think definitely is the guy or are you still waiting to see?
00:19:12
Speaker 3: The more I watch these guys and you hear about what a great quarterback class this is, how deep it is, how good it is. The more I watch college football, the less I'm convinced that's the case. Dante Moore. and you kind of take him or leave him. Arch, I'm not sold. I think he's a little overrated. Mateer, you can forget about. Carr's good. I think Carr will be a good prospect. Mensah's good. So if you get the– there's quarterbacks out there, and you know what? It's obviously an inexact science, but even though I'm less impressed with the quarterback class, the more I watch these guys, there's still some players out there, Carr and Mensah being two that come to mind.
00:19:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting because you mentioned Dante Moore. This is why when you're good, you leave college, right? So Dante Moore gets knocked into next week against USC. And their next game is against UCLA now. They're on a bye this week. Who are you starting, Will, given what you saw from Rayola versus Moore, who, by the way, you know, the Oregon Duck jabroni fans on the message boards were like, we can't move the ball, Moore stinks. I think there's a mini quarterback controversy brewing in Oregon.
00:20:11
Speaker 3: I would agree with that. Raiola's got a lot of pedigree. He's got experience. Moore wasn't playing great. I think you stick with Raiola. And I think that injury probably makes the decision for you for at least a week or two. But Raiola playing well and making this a very tough decision for Lanning is not something that would shock me.
00:20:30
Speaker 2: And it sucks if you're Dante Moore. By all accounts, a great kid, right? We had a former Michigan quarterback on who knows him for a long time. It just sounds like Dante Moore is an awesome guy. This is why you go to, I mean, do you know how much money cost himself? Like this reminds me a little of Spencer Rattler. Remember how he was like the prodigal son. He was going to be the number one pick. And then he just was stunk up the joint and Caleb Williams replaced him. And he, I think that's South bounce, South Carolina, maybe. ends up Barkley did it too.
00:20:56
Speaker 3: Remember Matt, Matt Barkley did it for USC.
00:20:58
Speaker 2: There you go. Yeah. So I, I, I, I'm worried about more. Uh, I definitely don't think he looks like a first round pick now. I mean, hell he got outplayed by the kid at Oklahoma state. Um, the big kid, uh, messed a maker, messed a maker. Sure. I mean, he's, he's got like an 80 yard touchdown run for a six, five guy. Um, by the way, any other things jump out at you on the college football, either the slate or, uh, anything looking forward.
00:21:23
Speaker 3: I know it's recency bias and you don't want to overreact, but man, Florida looks like an absolute freaking wagon offensively. They look like they're going to score 35, 40 plus points against pretty much everyone. I actually think that total is a little light this week, 56 and a half against Missouri. How does anybody keep Florida under 35? They got a quarterback, they got receivers, they got running back. They got a great offensive coordinator in Faulkner. I mean, they just got everything and they really hit a home run. It seems like with Summerall as the coach, I think Florida, not only a playoff team, maybe a sleeper national title contender. I think, I think Florida is absolutely lethal on offense. Okay. So hold up.
00:21:55
Speaker 2: How, how much of this remember Ole Miss had an awesome game against LSU and then it fell off. Are we going to see the same thing against Missouri? Now this is on the road. It looked, yeah, on the road, um, this Saturday. Huh? Holy cow.
00:22:09
Speaker 1: Wait a minute.
00:22:10
Speaker 2: Florida has Texas and Georgia. Oh, there's a bye weekend between back to back. Holy smokes. That's a tough schedule for the Gators.
00:22:17
Speaker 3: Um, It is.
00:22:22
Speaker 2: You said, by the way, you're not in love with Arch, huh?
00:22:26
Speaker 3: I'm not. I just think his decision making, I just think if his last name wasn't Manning, I don't know that he'd be this hype. I think the fact that he comes from the Manning family tree, the football tree, I think that plays a lot into it. You see spurts with it, but even against Ohio State that great win, it was one good quarter. You see it in pieces here and there. He's got tools, obviously, but As far as just being like, you know, the team's tanking for him, this lock can't miss, generational quarterback, I don't see anything close to that.
00:22:54
Speaker 2: Do you? I mean, again, the tool set works really well for me, and I still would have him as slight edge as the one. I wonder how much of this is the Sark system, which Sark is, you know, he knows quarterbacks. For some reason, Arch isn't. Like the play sequencing, by the way, against Texas, the Texas-Ohio State game, I thought was horrific from Sark. I didn't know what he was doing. And then Arch pulls him out, which I thought was pretty clutch and impressive. Let's wrap up. Go back to NFL real quick.
00:23:25
Speaker 1: Are you doing Survivor?
00:23:26
Speaker 2: Are you still alive? Oh, you're still alive. I know a lot of guys who are done already.
00:23:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we've gone pretty chalk here. I think Jacksonville week one against Cleveland, then San Francisco, and last week, the Chiefs. So it's not like, And I think the more survivor gets talked about people try and get cute. And even if you haven't gotten cute, there were plenty of upsets, but people, they want to be different. I've gone pretty conventional so far, probably go with Minnesota this week. Uh, it feels good to be alive. Only had one entry, still have one entry, but obviously a long, long way to go.
00:23:55
Speaker 2: Yeah. So, so Minnesota over Baltimore here, huh? Yeah.
00:24:00
Speaker 3: Cause I just think there's not that many places to use Minnesota going forward. I think there's more places to use Baltimore.
00:24:06
Speaker 2: No, that's a good point. Um, Interesting. So now, okay, so I'm in a separate one than the Circa contest. We have three entries left. We started with 10. The field is down like 25% is left or whatever. Would you go all three on Minnesota or divide up Minnesota, Baltimore? I don't even know who the third team would be. I think those are pretty much the clear two, right? There isn't even a third spread.
00:24:34
Speaker 3: I'd probably go. I probably go all in with Minnesota, but I always say this about people with multiple injuries. You feel like you never play. You never play it optimally to your last one. That's when you start to get serious. You stop being cute. You stop splitting it. And you're like, all right, I got one left. Now this is what I really mean. This is my best pass. So it's interesting. I always feel like when people do multiple, I get why. And it gives you the advantage.
00:24:54
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:24:55
Speaker 3: But sometimes it could be a little redundant when you get multiple.
00:24:58
Speaker 2: Well, I guess the concern is, you know, I can't go down swinging with Kyler Murray, man. I just can't. I'm that guy.
00:25:05
Speaker 1: Is Kyler Murray good?
00:25:06
Speaker 2: It's a straight-up question. Is he good?
00:25:10
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I thought he'd play well coming into the year. Maybe, you know what, time to adjust. New system. It has not looked pretty. I know it's only, what, a drive or two against the Packers and then a game last week against Tampa. Maybe they'll look different eventually, but it has not looked great so far.
00:25:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah. All right, so maybe we'll do two Minnesota, one Baltimore. Ravens always scare me, man. That letdown against the Saints, that cost us an entry. Yeah, I do love me some survivor. All right, Will Hill, great stuff. Bear Bets podcast. He is on VEASAN. I mean, he's a gambling machine. Will, thanks, my man.
00:25:41
Speaker 3: Always good to see you, man. Appreciate you having me. Thanks.
Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: What is up, Straight Fire fam? It's me, Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire. For Thursday, October the 1st. A lot of people say October is the best month on the sports calendar. You know I'm a November guy. I love October. Postseason baseball is great. We had our first elimination on Wednesday afternoon with the Houston Astros.
00:00:35
Speaker 3: Buh-bye.
00:00:36
Speaker 2: See you later. The White Sox advancing, and I'm a bit of a surprise. I did not know the White Sox were good at all this year. I'm recording this as the Yankees lead the Red Sox 3-1. I think it's the seventh inning. The only reason I'm recording it early is because I'm going to the Bruno Mars concert. at SoFi tonight. I guess it's his first night in LA. My family decided we're going to do it up big. I will probably post some photos on Instagram, and you will laugh at me for the outfit that we're going to do, but I digress. Today's guest is spectacular. His name is Will Hill. You can catch him on the Bear Bets podcast. He's on VEASAN all the time. The guy is a gambling maven. We talk NFL, a little college football as well, and Survivor, for those of you still alive. Will is alive. I think you're going to really enjoy it. So without further ado, here is Will Hill. You know a guy.
00:01:30
Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.
00:01:34
Speaker 2: I know what sports fans want.
00:01:36
Speaker 1: But for everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does.
00:01:39
Speaker 3: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.
00:01:45
Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome back to Straight Fire, a gambling guy you know well. He's all over VEASAN, which is increasingly putting out good content. And you can also catch him on the Bear Bets podcast.
00:01:58
Speaker 3: Will Hill.
00:01:58
Speaker 2: Will, how's it going, my man?
00:02:00
Speaker 3: J-Mac, always good to see you, man. Appreciate you having me. We got to do a home and home. I've had you on my podcast. Should have been more podcasts before. And it's always good to catch up. Fun time of the year, man. Baseball playoffs, WNBA playoffs, football. It feels like, you know what? You're so excited for football to get here and you blink and it's week four, which it is.
00:02:19
Speaker 2: Well, I guess we can start to throw out priors pretty soon, or maybe you keep them longer. But it's interesting you say that. So quick question. October, really good for sports, right? You get baseball playoffs. Is November better? Because it maybe has some World Series games, but it also has college basketball, which I geek out on, and the NBA.
00:02:37
Speaker 3: It's close. I'll still go with October. I do love that sort of feast week, that November week.
00:02:42
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:02:43
Speaker 3: You know, if you're lucky, you're home, and it's just college basketball. It's almost like the conference tournament week or March Madness week. There's so many tournaments. It used to be Maui. I know they've replaced that with the newer one. But that's a great week. And now we get an NFL game on Black Friday. Not only Black Friday, but the night before Thanksgiving. That's close. That's as good a week as there is in sports. I'll still take October, but your point is well taken. And that week of Thanksgiving is about as good as anything. especially all the college football rivalries. That's an awesome, awesome week.
00:03:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, for sure. I'm just a college hoops nerd. Uh, it's funny. I started some guys put out like free previews and I just started digging into them. And I, I don't know about you, but I do have to start with this, uh, AI stuff. Um, I'd never built an NFL gambling model or anything of that sort. And I tinkered with a world cup one this summer and dude, it was, it was really successful after like struggles at the beginning. And I started one for NFL first week was not good because there's no data. And dude, the last two weeks, eight and two, and I'm starting to put stuff in the college basketball model.
00:03:41
Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
00:03:42
Speaker 2: Are you using a lot of AI for sports gambling?
00:03:45
Speaker 3: I'm not, but I've been told that I need to start, that people that have started to do it say, man, it just makes your life so much easier where, you know what, you set this stuff up and you type in Delaware football and you just get a, you spit out everything about Delaware football that you need to know. It saves you so much time. So I feel like it's one of those things, if you're not doing it, which I'm not, you're behind. So I will maybe have to pick their brain here and get more insight into how do you build your model? What have you done here with your NFL model?
00:04:11
Speaker 2: Oh, you can just get any data you want, EPA, success rate, give the link to Claude or Google Gemini, whatever you want to use, and just say, hey, I value this. Here are where you can find injury reports. Here are the depth charts. Can you rank players so that if the right guard is out for the Chiefs, you know, that that's not worth a point against the spread, but like if he's a seven out of 10, right. Is he worth a 10th of a point to the spread? And if there's a cluster injury, how does that impact? And like, for instance, the Panthers this week have big, big injuries at quarterback and the model loves Detroit, even though the line is a little high Detroit on the road. It looks like there could be some weather, but like, I'm just obsessed with this stuff. I'm not going to lie. Well, it is the most fun I've had gambling because listen, it's fun for you and I to discuss, for instance, you know, Brown Steelers, right? There's all these trends out there that exist. Do you want to lean on first-time head coaches Thursday night football? It's a doomsday. Or, hey, the Browns, they're amazing on Thursday night football. Like, those are fun to talk about, but I don't know. The computer's smarter than you and I. Shouldn't I ask the computer, like, hey, what do you think? And the computer's telling me there's value on Pittsburgh at two and a half.
00:05:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, that computer, unfortunately, is going to replace all of us doing everything at some point, it seems like. But no, it's 100% true. These are tools that are at your disposal, at our disposal. And yeah, I think what you're doing is probably smart. You're taking advantage of them.
00:05:40
Speaker 2: So Brown Steelers, do you have anything?
00:05:43
Speaker 1: We don't.
00:05:44
Speaker 2: I'm in the Circa Million, so I haven't. I don't think I put it in Thursday Night Game in a while. So despite the model liking Pittsburgh. Now, this could change based on what money comes in and the lines move. I'm sure you're watching Circa and Pinnacle and all the important books. Do you have anything on this game?
00:06:01
Speaker 3: I like the over, I think, more than anything. I think Cleveland's got some underrated skill guys, and they have just a lot of young players in general. But Concepcion and Boston, the two rookie receivers, Judkins, Fannin, that's a nice little nucleus now, the big if, the big but. You've got to get Watson to play somewhat decent, but he's played okay well enough the last couple weeks to beat 2-1-1. And if you look at Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh's a strange team to figure out. Every time you trust them a little, they lose a game they shouldn't. Every time you count them out, like last week, they come back and they look pretty good. Rodgers has thrown the ball downfield, J-Mac. He has thrown the ball deeper than usual. And McCarthy said coming into the season, hey, we want to stretch the field. We want to throw it downfield. Two of the first three games, average depth of target over 10 yards. If you've got an average depth of target over 10 yards and you're throwing it deep, Browns, I like their skill, guys. The total's 38.5, man. In this modern NFL where the kickers can kick it from anywhere, field position is better, 38.5 is a low, low number. So I know Cleveland's played much better defense at home as opposed to on the road in recent years, but I like that over 38.5 more than anything.
00:07:04
Speaker 2: So another aspect of the model is like the quarterbacks versus man versus zone. And that's a big difference. And like Bryce Young last week, really struggles against man. He can't throw guys open. He can pick apart zones. Well, Cleveland plays heavy man. So like, this is something I would ask the model. Hey, what defense does Pittsburgh play? And how does it, or Cleveland man, and how does Aaron Rodgers do against man in Pittsburgh? Now it hasn't been long, obviously, 15 game sample size, but I don't know about Rodgers against that pressure. I mean, Mason Graham looked incredible last week coming up the middle. I saw Daniel Jeremiah saying he could be like a defensive player of the year candidate eventually Verso will do something. Not afraid to go against that Browns dog pound vibe, huh?
00:07:50
Speaker 3: Well, I think if Rogers, if you can give him time, because he's not the guy he was at 26 where he could scramble, make plays with his legs and throw the ball downfield. So if you get pressure on him, you think of the Texans game last year on Monday night in the playoffs, or he's just, he was, he was me, he was cooked and you get pressure on him. He's done. But if you give him time, he can still make the throws. The arm is still there. I mean, that's a guy just natural arm talent. That arm talent is going to be there until he's 50. I mean, he's, He's just that naturally gifted as a thrower, and you combine that with the willingness to push the ball down the field. I'll take a shot here over 38.5. it's interesting.
00:08:36
Speaker 2: He looks so bad against the Patriots, right? Get crushed in the pocket. And then he comes back against a Bengals D that everybody thought was, was back and just cooked him. I, that's the thing. I don't, some of these teams it's so early. I don't really understand. I want to ask you, I know you do a lot of stuff for visa and obviously what are you making of this Raiders team? That's three, you know, uh, they are, I think they're cooking in three, you know, against the spread. Um, And it's just one of those situations where I'm like, are they good? I'm still asking myself, is Vegas good? And I ask that because as I look at the numbers, they're kind of big home dogs here to Kansas City.
00:09:11
Speaker 3: Not buying it yet. I still think you can poke holes. They played Miami. All right. Nice win against the Saints. John Blank, who they played.
00:09:20
Speaker 1: Chargers.
00:09:21
Speaker 3: Okay. Chargers, maybe not what we thought they were. I don't think they are what we thought they were. Look, impressive start, 3-0, and look, if they win this week, 4-0, now you really have to start taking them seriously. Now it's like a Super Bowl contender, but I think right now they're basically a coin flip to make the playoffs. Right now, if you had to ask me, yes, no playoffs, even with the 3-0 start, even with the fact, hey, 3-0, if you just go, what, 7-6 the rest of the way, you're looking at a 10-win team, I'm not there yet. You guys just got 14 games. I'm not there yet. I still think they missed the playoffs. I think the Chiefs, who play well in that building, will come in and take care of business. I do like, from a betting standpoint, though, Bowers, I think, is over his 75.5. this week. He is a monster player. I don't know if tight ends usually don't win. I don't say usually. Never win Offensive Player of the Year. He's incredible. Last week, 10 catches, 13 targets, 115 yards. He's really not a tight end. He's more of a receiver than a tight end, but he is just an awesome player. I would look towards Bowers over us, but I'm not quite buying the Raiders yet. Fun story, though. Fun story and very funny. The longer Cousins plays well, the more Mendoza is going to be stuck to that bench.
00:10:24
Speaker 2: Well, I don't like that. And like you said, they're probably, would you say, coin flip to make the playoffs? Because they got Chiefs and then Patriots, Bills, Rams. That's a tough, they're probably going to lose four in a row, right?
00:10:36
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:10:37
Speaker 2: That would be my guess. You still have San Fran. You've got Seattle. You've got Denver twice. Yeah, this schedule, Kansas City twice. I mean, eventually the Chargers will probably wake up. Yeah, I would agree with you. I don't think they're going to make the playoffs. Is there anything you see on the Sunday card that really jumps out at you? You know, $ 100, 000 bets you're making. I know you're a big baller.
00:11:00
Speaker 3: Well, it's ugly. It's ugly, but Minnesota's a team I liked coming into the season. I thought there was some value on them. They've been pretty fortunate to be 3-0. I would actually take Miami plus the 10.5. I don't like the matchup. Willow's first floor scares the hell out of me. The defensive coordinator for us is as good as it gets, and Will was thrown against that defense. That's scary. But Miami, their real weakness, J-Mac, is the secondary, and the Vikings just don't have the passing game to exploit that. They have not thrown the ball well at all. They had nine first downs last week. The week before, they won without scoring a touchdown. They won 9-3. And then in week one, they were down 12 middle of the third quarter. They have been fortunate, even though they were one of my teams that I thought was a sleeper before the season. Hasn't looked great with Murray. I don't know that Jefferson's going to play. I think that 10.5 is a tad high here against the Dolphins. You're right.
00:11:45
Speaker 2: That's a big number. This is one thing the model can't calculate. Flores' revenge game. I would assume he'll want to put Willis in a body bag. No H-hand. I know you picked up Ollie Gordon in fantasy, but I watched Gordon last week, man. I mean, I don't see the juice. I don't see the pop. I don't see the receiving group. It's a hold-your-nose plug-and-play, right, if you want to ride the Dolphins?
00:12:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, and look, you know this from betting the NFL. You got to take some teams that make you uncomfortable. You got to take quarterbacks that make you uncomfortable. If it was as simple as just betting on Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes every week, we'd all be rich and living in Michigan. It's not that easy. You got to take some bad teams and some bad quarterbacks.
00:12:27
Speaker 2: Well, actually, you probably could get rich just betting on Josh Allen every week because he's the guy's a machine. That Bill's Patriots game, I don't know. Where are you leaning on that one? You do well in the six and a half.
00:12:40
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:12:41
Speaker 3: I would like a seven. Anytime the line is six and a half. Anytime the line is two and a half. You like the dog. Just like in a three, you might get a seven. I'd probably again, plug my nose. I hate laying points in the NFL. I probably take the points with new England figure. You know what? Just forget what you saw last week. And I know it's a disturbing trend now for the Patriots. And for may, may has not played well here for a really big sample. And that's, About as random a drop-off as you're going to have to be that second-year player, almost win the MVP. You could really make a case he should have been the MVP. Now he's just been mediocre here really since the start of the playoffs. Maybe the shoulder's still bothering him. I'll buy low on the Patriots, though. This is a desperation spot. Let's say it's a must-win, but you know what, J-Mac? If you lose this game, you're three and a half games out of the AFC East a couple days into October. This is basically for the division. If you lose this, you're done in terms of the division. I'll say it's more of a field goal game. I'll say the Patriots, you know, Vrabel's good as an underdog, but... I was not high on the Patriots team coming into the season. I thought Superbowl hangover did much different, more difficult schedule and the whole Vrabel distraction. Maybe I'm trying to catch a falling knife here, but it would be Patriots or pass for me. Not that I love it, but I just, I don't like taking points, laying points in the NFL.
00:13:46
Speaker 2: I think I'm with you. Let me ask about this Vrabel stuff. So I'm sure you recall the Tiger Woods drama. His obviously was to a much greater extent than Vrabel's off season issues. Um, But the funniest theory I saw, people were trying to say like, oh, Vrabel doesn't like Drake May and Vrabel shot that down instantly. I know it's more fodder for a bar room, but is there a world where Vrabel thrived in chaos, meaning his life was upside down now that it's all clean and he's cleaned up?
00:14:17
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:14:18
Speaker 2: Is there any, you think there's anything there at all?
00:14:22
Speaker 3: It's hard to know, but you know what I was saying when this broke in, what was it, April last year? You can't say it's a positive. You could say it doesn't matter. You could say, you know what, the players don't care about this stuff. Maybe it's true. It's either a net negative or it's nothing. It's either nothing. There's no way it's a positive, whether it's distraction, you know, he's missing days in the draft, whether the players look at him differently. And there is some contradiction to these guys. They preach team first, no distractions, be a good guy off the field, on the field, all this stuff. And then you're out there doing that and you become a distraction. That would probably make you look at your coach a little different, at least for some people. So... I'm worried about New England. I think it's fair to worry about them. 1-2, the schedule is much different than it was last year, much more difficult than it was last year. You lose this week, which they're supposed to, 1-3. That's not a death sentence, but, man, that's pretty close. I think the Patriots certainly have some issues here. You've got to figure out what's going on with May.
00:15:12
Speaker 2: It feels to me like Houston is probably the most must-win. They got to the playoffs after 0-3 last year, but 0-4 would be virtually impossible. I guess mathematically, you can't pull that off. That being said, they are favored. Looks like two and a half. Motto really likes Houston here at two and a half. Do you have anything on this one? Dallas coming off the Rio disaster. There isn't a lot of data, I don't think. Was this the first game in Rio ever or second?
00:15:41
Speaker 3: They played a couple Friday night games the last couple years. Remember Chiefs-Chargers last year and then two years ago? It was Packers-Eagles. The field were a mess. Both games went over. I would go over here, and I think you're starting to see some threes here. Texans have not been as good defensively. They've been a little bit better offensively. And Dallas, for all the talk, the defense is going to be improved, which I'll put my hand up. I thought it would be improved. It really hasn't looked great. They've been an over team. Baltimore lit them up last week. Even the Giants and the Commanders had success offensively against them. It would be, I think we're looking at 48, 48 and a half. Dallas is going to get in the mid-20s, high 20s against pretty much everyone, if not more. I'd go over 48 and a half.
00:16:18
Speaker 2: Interesting. So, Nico Collins might be the reason. It looks like he practiced light practice. I just worry about those soft tissue injuries, man. If he gives it a go, like their offense this season and in the postseason just looks dreadful without him. You can't move the ball against a freaking Colt. You know, they're not respecting the run. I mean, Montgomery looks like a bust. He was awesome in week one with Nico Collins out there. But now you don't have to keep a safety over the top. Yeah, I'm worried about Houston. I just don't know if that's a full-on play. That being said, let's go to the Bears. So I'm seeing breaking news as we record this on Wednesday that Ben Johnson knows who the quarterback is going to be, but he's not announcing it yet for the big showdown with the Jets. Short week. My Jets have looked pretty good. Gino Smith was phenomenal 31-37 in Detroit. Now he goes outdoors. I haven't checked the weather yet. I think Chicago's going to be the side again here, but it's probably going to be the public side. Anything on this game?
00:17:17
Speaker 3: I like the Jets. Jets have been feisty. They should have beaten the Packers. They took care of the Titans, which, I mean, that's not saying much, obviously. But you mentioned that Gino Smith has played well. I don't think the defense is as good as it was last year. It's amazing they still haven't gotten interception all of last year, all of this year. It's just a ridiculous streak. But I would think it's case game. How could he play that well as a backup, third string? And then you're going to not play him the next week. You're going to go back to Badgett.
00:17:43
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:17:43
Speaker 3: I would think it's going to be Keenum, and I would expect Keenum to not play as well this week. Obviously, you've got to give Ben Flowers his accolades. He's been incredible to do that with Keenum. He's a superstar coach, and you're starting to see, you know, probably a big reason why the Lions were so successful offensively all those years with him. But 3.5 is, you know, it's a key number. Could this be a field goal game? Jets lose it, you know, 23-20, something like that. I think it's very possible here. I'll take the points with the Jets.
00:18:08
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at FoxSportsRadio.com. And within the iHeartRadio app, search FSR to listen live.
00:18:20
Speaker 2: This is interesting. So would it change your outlook if it was Bajan and not Keenum?
00:18:25
Speaker 3: Not really.
00:18:26
Speaker 2: No, okay.
00:18:27
Speaker 3: I just don't know that Keenum can do it two weeks in a row. Exactly. I think that was a little bit of a mirage.
00:18:31
Speaker 2: And my guess is he starts Beijing because now if you're the Jets, who do you prepare for? And he knows Aaron Glenn's defense as well from his time in Detroit. Good point. Again, as a Jets fan, I know people hate when I say this. I want close losses. Well, that's what I want. I don't need the wins. I want my pick of the literate quarterback. You know, last time we won meaningless games, we ended up with Zach Wilson and not Trevor Lawrence. And I had that workout. Zach Wilson's pumping gas in Utah right now, I think. So I want my now I don't know who that quarterback is. You're a big college football guy. I see you tweeting about college football. Yes. On Saturdays. Have you seen a quarterback that you think definitely is the guy or are you still waiting to see?
00:19:12
Speaker 3: The more I watch these guys and you hear about what a great quarterback class this is, how deep it is, how good it is. The more I watch college football, the less I'm convinced that's the case. Dante Moore. and you kind of take him or leave him. Arch, I'm not sold. I think he's a little overrated. Mateer, you can forget about. Carr's good. I think Carr will be a good prospect. Mensah's good. So if you get the– there's quarterbacks out there, and you know what? It's obviously an inexact science, but even though I'm less impressed with the quarterback class, the more I watch these guys, there's still some players out there, Carr and Mensah being two that come to mind.
00:19:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting because you mentioned Dante Moore. This is why when you're good, you leave college, right? So Dante Moore gets knocked into next week against USC. And their next game is against UCLA now. They're on a bye this week. Who are you starting, Will, given what you saw from Rayola versus Moore, who, by the way, you know, the Oregon Duck jabroni fans on the message boards were like, we can't move the ball, Moore stinks. I think there's a mini quarterback controversy brewing in Oregon.
00:20:11
Speaker 3: I would agree with that. Raiola's got a lot of pedigree. He's got experience. Moore wasn't playing great. I think you stick with Raiola. And I think that injury probably makes the decision for you for at least a week or two. But Raiola playing well and making this a very tough decision for Lanning is not something that would shock me.
00:20:30
Speaker 2: And it sucks if you're Dante Moore. By all accounts, a great kid, right? We had a former Michigan quarterback on who knows him for a long time. It just sounds like Dante Moore is an awesome guy. This is why you go to, I mean, do you know how much money cost himself? Like this reminds me a little of Spencer Rattler. Remember how he was like the prodigal son. He was going to be the number one pick. And then he just was stunk up the joint and Caleb Williams replaced him. And he, I think that's South bounce, South Carolina, maybe. ends up Barkley did it too.
00:20:56
Speaker 3: Remember Matt, Matt Barkley did it for USC.
00:20:58
Speaker 2: There you go. Yeah. So I, I, I, I'm worried about more. Uh, I definitely don't think he looks like a first round pick now. I mean, hell he got outplayed by the kid at Oklahoma state. Um, the big kid, uh, messed a maker, messed a maker. Sure. I mean, he's, he's got like an 80 yard touchdown run for a six, five guy. Um, by the way, any other things jump out at you on the college football, either the slate or, uh, anything looking forward.
00:21:23
Speaker 3: I know it's recency bias and you don't want to overreact, but man, Florida looks like an absolute freaking wagon offensively. They look like they're going to score 35, 40 plus points against pretty much everyone. I actually think that total is a little light this week, 56 and a half against Missouri. How does anybody keep Florida under 35? They got a quarterback, they got receivers, they got running back. They got a great offensive coordinator in Faulkner. I mean, they just got everything and they really hit a home run. It seems like with Summerall as the coach, I think Florida, not only a playoff team, maybe a sleeper national title contender. I think, I think Florida is absolutely lethal on offense. Okay. So hold up.
00:21:55
Speaker 2: How, how much of this remember Ole Miss had an awesome game against LSU and then it fell off. Are we going to see the same thing against Missouri? Now this is on the road. It looked, yeah, on the road, um, this Saturday. Huh? Holy cow.
00:22:09
Speaker 1: Wait a minute.
00:22:10
Speaker 2: Florida has Texas and Georgia. Oh, there's a bye weekend between back to back. Holy smokes. That's a tough schedule for the Gators.
00:22:17
Speaker 3: Um, It is.
00:22:22
Speaker 2: You said, by the way, you're not in love with Arch, huh?
00:22:26
Speaker 3: I'm not. I just think his decision making, I just think if his last name wasn't Manning, I don't know that he'd be this hype. I think the fact that he comes from the Manning family tree, the football tree, I think that plays a lot into it. You see spurts with it, but even against Ohio State that great win, it was one good quarter. You see it in pieces here and there. He's got tools, obviously, but As far as just being like, you know, the team's tanking for him, this lock can't miss, generational quarterback, I don't see anything close to that.
00:22:54
Speaker 2: Do you? I mean, again, the tool set works really well for me, and I still would have him as slight edge as the one. I wonder how much of this is the Sark system, which Sark is, you know, he knows quarterbacks. For some reason, Arch isn't. Like the play sequencing, by the way, against Texas, the Texas-Ohio State game, I thought was horrific from Sark. I didn't know what he was doing. And then Arch pulls him out, which I thought was pretty clutch and impressive. Let's wrap up. Go back to NFL real quick.
00:23:25
Speaker 1: Are you doing Survivor?
00:23:26
Speaker 2: Are you still alive? Oh, you're still alive. I know a lot of guys who are done already.
00:23:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we've gone pretty chalk here. I think Jacksonville week one against Cleveland, then San Francisco, and last week, the Chiefs. So it's not like, And I think the more survivor gets talked about people try and get cute. And even if you haven't gotten cute, there were plenty of upsets, but people, they want to be different. I've gone pretty conventional so far, probably go with Minnesota this week. Uh, it feels good to be alive. Only had one entry, still have one entry, but obviously a long, long way to go.
00:23:55
Speaker 2: Yeah. So, so Minnesota over Baltimore here, huh? Yeah.
00:24:00
Speaker 3: Cause I just think there's not that many places to use Minnesota going forward. I think there's more places to use Baltimore.
00:24:06
Speaker 2: No, that's a good point. Um, Interesting. So now, okay, so I'm in a separate one than the Circa contest. We have three entries left. We started with 10. The field is down like 25% is left or whatever. Would you go all three on Minnesota or divide up Minnesota, Baltimore? I don't even know who the third team would be. I think those are pretty much the clear two, right? There isn't even a third spread.
00:24:34
Speaker 3: I'd probably go. I probably go all in with Minnesota, but I always say this about people with multiple injuries. You feel like you never play. You never play it optimally to your last one. That's when you start to get serious. You stop being cute. You stop splitting it. And you're like, all right, I got one left. Now this is what I really mean. This is my best pass. So it's interesting. I always feel like when people do multiple, I get why. And it gives you the advantage.
00:24:54
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:24:55
Speaker 3: But sometimes it could be a little redundant when you get multiple.
00:24:58
Speaker 2: Well, I guess the concern is, you know, I can't go down swinging with Kyler Murray, man. I just can't. I'm that guy.
00:25:05
Speaker 1: Is Kyler Murray good?
00:25:06
Speaker 2: It's a straight-up question. Is he good?
00:25:10
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I thought he'd play well coming into the year. Maybe, you know what, time to adjust. New system. It has not looked pretty. I know it's only, what, a drive or two against the Packers and then a game last week against Tampa. Maybe they'll look different eventually, but it has not looked great so far.
00:25:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah. All right, so maybe we'll do two Minnesota, one Baltimore. Ravens always scare me, man. That letdown against the Saints, that cost us an entry. Yeah, I do love me some survivor. All right, Will Hill, great stuff. Bear Bets podcast. He is on VEASAN. I mean, he's a gambling machine. Will, thanks, my man.
00:25:41
Speaker 3: Always good to see you, man. Appreciate you having me. Thanks.
