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Hey, what's up, guys, and welcome to another episode of GameScript.
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We're looking at the Atlanta Falcons versus the New Orleans
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Saints on Monday Night Football. Going to be breaking down
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the statistics and analytics behind the matchups in this one
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to try to find our best plays for DraftKings Showdown Contest.
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We're going to try to come down with the best
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captain options and build some lineups. And if you like
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this type of content, make sure to subscribe over at
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the YouTube channel Looking to hit 3,000 subscribers. Only need
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about 50 left to get there. Get me to 50
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and I'll put my core plays in the comment section
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or I'll give you guys a link to the core plays.
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So make sure to hit that subscribe. You want to
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subscribe anyways because I break down all these games and
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put up shows for it. Also hit that like button.
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Give me 250 likes. I'll make my premium article for
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free this week. So the total in this game is
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a 48.5 point total. We're looking at New Orleans is
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two and a half point favorites. They're playing in New Orleans.
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So we got a dome. It'd be a dome either
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way because Atlanta is in a dome as well. But
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it's going to be a pretty good game. It's a
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divisional matchup. And these teams usually play each other pretty well.
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And we got the starting quarterback for Atlanta is back.
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He came back last week with Michael Penix. And he
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had a good game against Green Bay last week. And,
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you know, wasted no time coming back from that ACL injury,
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which is good news for this offense who was struggling
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up until last week. So we'll take a look first
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over at DraftKings. And this is where we're going to
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build our lineups. We'll go through all these players. What
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we do first before we get into this is we
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go over and we look at the injuries to find
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out what is significant and where we can find some
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of these matchup advantages when we're breaking it down. If
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we're looking over at the Falcons, Trey Sermon is on IR,
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Bo Collins on IR, Cameron Williams on IR, the left tackle.
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So that's a little bit of a depth issue on
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the offensive line. As far as the defense, Deshaun Hand
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is on IR. We got a couple guys that are
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questionable starters on the linebacker core. We got Devine Diablo
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and Samson Aboukam. And we have James Pierce still suspended.
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AJ Terrell, that's a significant one, too. He's on IR.
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And D'Angelo Malone is out. So this linebacker core is
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looking good. uh, you know, pretty, pretty thin with these, uh,
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this suspended guy and the guy that's out then J uh,
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JD Bertrand is out as well. And then, uh, uh,
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divine Diablo questionable, like I said, so that's a little
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bit of thinness on the offense, uh, the, uh, linebacker core, uh, left, uh,
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left cornerback. That's where AJ Terrell is out. His brother actually, uh, uh,
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played last week, I believe. Um, Where was he at, A.J. Terrell?
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I don't see him in here. But so we got,
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let's see, the rest of it seems, oh, there he is,
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Avion Terrell. So the rest of them seem pretty healthy.
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It looks like they got Billy Bowman back. So Billy
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Bowman on nickel back. That's bad news for the slot
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receivers of the Saints. So let's get over to New
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Orleans here. So now with the Saints coming, We're looking at,
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you know, ETN is going to be on IR. So
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that's going to push Alvin Kamara and Kendra Miller to
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the forefront of the running back committee there. As far
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as the wide receivers, Jordan Tyson was supposed to be
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the stud rookie receiver, and he went on IR before
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the season even started, I believe. And he's going to
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be gone for multiple weeks. As far as tight end,
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Noah Fant is questionable. That's significant because Fant took a
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decent amount of work away from Juwan Johnson last week.
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Kevin Banks Jr. on the left tackle is on IR.
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Really thin on the left guard with Raduns and Saldivari
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both out. If we're going down to the defense, this
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is where we have some significant injuries. We got, uh,
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Granderson and, uh, Caden Ellis both out. So that's going
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to be a good news for Bijan as if he
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needs a better matchup. Uh, Anthony Jennings also out. So
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they're down to their third, uh, third string, uh, linebacker, uh,
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for this position, Brian Breezy on IR as well. Uh,
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What do we got here? We got Jalen Ford. They
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got a lot of injuries on this linebacker, of course.
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Very thin on their linebackers here in New Orleans. Let's see.
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And then Lorenzo Stiles at the nickel back position on
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IR as well. So the matchup overall, the... Saints are allowing,
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let's see, 18.2 DraftKings points a game to the quarterback position.
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So that is going to be a middling matchup for
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Michael Penix Jr. We saw him come back last week.
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That 15 points doesn't do justice to what he accomplished
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last week. He looked really good. 256 yards. He started
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off slow against the Packers last week, found his groove
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towards the end of Guy who benefited the most was
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Drake London. And the Saints are giving up 28.4 DraftKings
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points a game to wideouts. So Drake in another good
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matchup here. With the game last week, he had 31.4
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DraftKings points, which was really good. Olave, we got Olave
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on the Saints side. He's been on fire this season.
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He's having a great year so far, and he's scored
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over 20 DraftKings points in each week, over 22 DraftKings
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points in each week so far. As far as the Falcons,
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the Falcons are giving up, let's see, 27.5. So the
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weaknesses of both of these defenses are wideouts so far. Uh,
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the Falcons are, uh, the Saints are also weak against
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running back position. They've been given up 28.2 DraftKings points, uh,
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to the running back position. That of course is going
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to be good news for Bijan. And then they have
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those linebacker injuries on top of it. So, uh, Bijan, uh,
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primed to be the highest scoring guy in the slate.
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Question is going to be with all the ownership that
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will be on him. How do we get around starting
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Bijan in our lineups, uh, uh, for the captain positions?
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So he is at $ 11, 800. He's actually $ 200 cheaper than
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Jameer Gibbs was for the Lions slate this weekend. Let's see.
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We got Tyler Shook. As far as what Atlanta has
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been allowing to these quarterbacks, they've been allowing 19.6 DraftKings
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points a game. So Atlanta has been vulnerable through the air,
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like I said. They were weak against wideouts, too, giving
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up 27.5 DraftKings points to wideouts. Both these teams are
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also weak against tight ends. The Falcons are giving up 17.2
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DraftKings points, and the Saints are giving up 21.7 DraftKings points.
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So what that says is that maybe this is the
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week where we start to see Pitts come alive. Pitts
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is at 5,800 too. So we're getting him at a
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significant discount when everybody has given up on the guy.
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And last year we were in the same spot and
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we started Pitts in the captain and he ended up
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going off and nobody had him in the captain last
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year when we had this exact same situation where everybody
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had given up on him and he ended up exploding
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in that game. So we'll keep Pits in mind when
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we're building our lineups this week. If we're going to
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some of these other guys, Vele has played a significant
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role on this team. You see nine, seven, and six
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targets in the last few games, and he's been getting
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a decent amount of fantasy points on top of it.
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Had a little bit of a downturn last week. Juwan Johnson,
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he's been on fire as well. He has a shower
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narrative going with Tyler Shuck. Those two went to college together,
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and they've been friends for years. And you can see
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it in his output, scoring over 10 DraftKings points a game,
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which is great for a tight end, seven, four, and
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eight targets. So Juwan Johnson definitely in play, especially with
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Atlanta having that weak spot against the tight end position. Kamara,
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last week he came back. He had nine rushing attempts
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for 36 yards. So let's go over and look at
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the snap counts real quick. And let's go and check
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out the New Orleans Saints. And you can see that
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Alvin Kamara last week had a 32% snap count. ETN,
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obviously the starter, got hurt mid-game last week. 38% snap
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count last week. 32 for Kamara. uh, CJ Donaldson had
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an 16%, uh, and then Kendra Miller had a 19%. So,
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you know, like, I mean, it's going to be tough
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to narrow down which of one of these, uh, which
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one of these guys between Kamara and Miller might be
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the starter or getting the most workload in this one. So,
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you know, that is going to be, uh, you know,
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a question mark. But the thing is, is Atlanta is
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only giving up 13 DraftKings points a game to the
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running back position as it is. So, you know, maybe, uh,
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maybe that's a position that we don't have to worry
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about as much. And we focus on the past game
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for the, uh, for the saints. So scrolling back down,
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we got folk over on Atlanta, 5,400. We got, uh,
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Kendra Miller, as I mentioned, uh, only 3.9 DraftKings points
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last week. We got Carlson slash Smythe or Smith. And like,
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I can't remember last week. Wasn't Smith ended up? No,
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Smith is, I'm thinking of a different Smith. They both
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spelled their Smiths weird. So that got me confused with
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one of the other kickers. I think his last name
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was Smith. I'm thinking of a different game though. Daniel Carlson, though, six, 13,
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and three DraftKings points so far with the Saints this year. Carlson,
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you know, and the kicker for the Falcons, Sfolk, will
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both be in play this week. Noah Fant, we're going
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to want to keep an eye on his condition. You
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can see 13 and 19 DraftKings points. They're kind of
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leaning on these tight ends, it looks like, over in
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New Orleans, and we do have a good tight end
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matchup against Atlanta. So, uh, tight ends will be significant
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this week. Uh, Saints, uh, Saints D, uh, probably not
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so interested in the defenses in this one. I think
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this is more of a shootout type of situation. And
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we have those, uh, those injuries on the, uh, you know,
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like on the Saints that, you know, I don't necessarily
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want to, uh, to trust a, a team that has
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significant injuries, especially on the linebacker where they're going to
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be facing Bijan Robinson. So let's see who else we got.
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We got Brian Robinson. Brian Robinson actually played a significant
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role last week too. He ended up with 11 DraftKings points,
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10 rushing attempts for 50 yards. So he had a
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five yard per carry average. Falcons D, you know, same situation.
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I don't know that I'm necessarily interested in the Falcons D,
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especially on the road. Uh, Jahan Dotson, uh, he's going
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to be interesting. Let's go and look at the snap
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counts for Jahan Dotson. I remember him playing a, uh,
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you know, like a pretty significant role. It felt like
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last week, but maybe I'm just imagining things. 66% snap count. Um, uh,
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Zacchaeus at 34% snap count and, uh, London, obviously a
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93% snap count. He's the, uh, the heaviest involved guy.
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So let's go and, uh, see how, uh, how John
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Dotson did last. He had three targets last week, only
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11 yards. So, uh, for, for some reason, I felt
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like he had a more significant role last week. Uh,
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Hooper sniped our touchdown last week. I remember, uh, I
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can't remember, um, who we had. It wasn't pits, but
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like he, uh, he sniped, he sniped our touchdown regardless. Um, Branch,
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not really interested there. Zaccheaus, he plays enough so that
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we can keep him in our player pool. He's at 2K.
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Let's see. And that's about it as far as the players.
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So now let's try to figure out where we want
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to go with this. And before we do that, make
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sure to go over to sportnuggets.com. Sign up for an
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account over there. That's where I'll put my free article.
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You can sign up for an account over there for
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free and follow our news feed. You don't even need
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an account to follow the news feed. You just need
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an account to click on the actual nuggets and to
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hit the see more and find out the exact summary
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and analysis on one of these things. But you can
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see the headlines and you can look at the sources
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basically without signing up for anything. But when you sign up,
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you can sign up for a free account Or you
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can sign up for one of our premium subscriptions, and
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that's where we do all the core plays and the
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premium articles that I do and stuff like that. Sik-Hemi
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is doing one too. Sik-Hemi's been on fire with his
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NFL picks so far this season. He won the DraftKings
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Showdown Contest a couple weeks ago, ended up winning 38K
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in it, the major DraftKings one. So we've got a
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good team of analysts. We've got Spread Astaire, too. He's
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like 16-5 with his betting picks this season so far.
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So you get his betting picks as well. So going
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back to what we need to focus on here, the Falcons,
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let's go and check out. They are a zone-heavy team.
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So we'll go to statrankings.com and kind of check out,
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you know, like how much zone coverage that these guys
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are running. And you see the Saints are a top
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nine team running zone coverage. So, you know, the Saints
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are a heavy zone team. Falcons are kind of a middling.
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So they're half zone, half man, which is noteworthy. So
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let's go over to our receivers now. Using statrankings.com, we'll
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see the target rates of these guys for zone coverage.
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So like I said, Saints are running zone at a
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top 10 rate. We see Bijan, the primary target, 35.9%
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target share, 25.8% for Drake London. By the way, if
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you guys want an account at statrankings.com, check the link
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in the description below. I have a link there that's
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going to get you 20% off a subscription. So click
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that link or use the promo code SEEK, S-E-E-K, when
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you sign up for an account. Site is great. All
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the stats that I like to look at are all
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in one spot, and it makes it so much easier
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than having a bunch of windows open. So we got
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Austin Hooper. That is significant. 23.8% target rate in zone coverage.
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Kyle Pitts down all the way at 10.6%. Let's look
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and see what that was like in 2025. Where was
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Pitts in 2025 for his zone? He was higher up
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at 20%. So he's got some regression coming to him,
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probably with these targets. He's got some regression coming in general.
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And facing against this Atlanta team, I mean this New
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Orleans team that's given up defensively, What were they giving up?
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They're giving up 21.7 DraftKings points a game to the
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tight end position. That's one of the best positions you
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can be in, like against the Saints. And they're also
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giving up a 23% target rate. So that target rate
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to the slot is also going to be significant for
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Kyle Pitts. Let's look and see where the alignments are
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for these guys. Slot snaps... Let's do slot rate. And
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we're going to go back to Atlanta again. And Zaccheaus,
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78% in the slot. Chris Blair. Drake London, significant, 34%
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in the slot. Kyle Pitts, 29%. So Pitts and London
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and obviously Bijon stand out. And if we need value
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at the captain, that's going to give us an option
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with Pitts where we can get like a lower owned
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guy who's going to be sneaky. Nobody wants to click
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on Pitts these days. That's going to make it easier
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for us to start him. So if we go back over,
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let's go and find out where AJ Terrell was lining up.
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I'm going to go back to Atlanta and look at
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their depth chart. So he was lining up. primarily on
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the left. So that is where we're going to find
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our weakness here for the Falcons defense. Let's go back
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over here to stat rankings. I'm going to show you
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guys a new tool that they created. It is a
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matchup tool, cornerback wide receiver matchup tool. So we're going
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to go and we're going to look at Atlanta first.
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And we're going to see, you know, we know that
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the Saints are vulnerable against slot receivers. So let's see
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exactly how these guys' routes line up. So we're going
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to go to Drake London first. Now we can see
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Drake London, you know, he's had a majority of his targets.
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Let's see, he's had four and three on this left
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side here. Uh, he's had, uh, you know, three and
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three on the, on the right side. So more targets
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over here on the left side. So let's see on
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the left side. 21 targets allowed in this region for
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the Saints. And you can see that that is, you know,
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like one of Drake London's heavier target quadrants or squares here.
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He has three targets in this region. And you can
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see that It's matching up with where the Saints have
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been vulnerable, getting eight targets in this region. And then
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11 targets over here and 12 targets over here. So
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that's a little bit less for Drake London, but he
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still has four targets in that general area. But what
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we're seeing is this spot over here lines up with
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the weaker spot for the Saints, which is good news
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for Drake London. Let's check out... Let's see. Let's see
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Alameda's Kias. Not a whole lot of targets to go
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with here, but he kind of fits in with the
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weak spot here of the Saints. We know that because
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of slot receivers. Let's check out Jahan Dotson. Jahan Dotson,
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we've seen him getting most of his targets here on
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the right side. And that aligns with this weak spot here.
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So Jahan Dotson might be an interesting cheap play. Let's
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go and look at his snap counts. You see Jahan Dotson,
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66% snap count last week. Zaccheaus had a 34. Dotson
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00:21:22.910 --> 00:21:28.230
might be interesting to us this week as a sneaky
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guy if we think the game is going to shoot
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out a bit. That's where I think that it would
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be most interesting, and that's what we're looking at for
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this show. We're trying to find the sneakier plays for
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a showdown episode so we can compete with the guys
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who are putting 150 lineups in there. We want to
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be able to pinpoint where these vulnerabilities are so we're
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not just going with average projections and how much fantasy
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points a guy typically scores without taking anything into context. So, okay,
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let's go back over and try to figure out, you know,
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what direction that we want to go here. So let's
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start out with the chalky lineup first. Let's go with
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Bijan in the captain. London, you know, going to want him.
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And let's get Olave. Those are going to be the
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big three, I think. Leaves us with 3,800 per guy.
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So let's go down to Pitts. Let's put Pitts in there.
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This leaves us with $ 2, 800 per guy. And we saw
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that Zaccheaus gets some, but he doesn't have a high
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snap count. So let's look at... Who was the other
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guy that I wanted? Jahan Dotson. Where's Dotson at? Dotson
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is cheap. We might be able to get away with
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putting him in this lineup as well. Leaves us with $ 2, 700.
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That's going to put us in Zaccheaus's. I don't know
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if I want that. I don't want that many Falcons
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in my lineup. So it ends up being a little
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bit tricky when you use Bijan. If we wanted to
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take London out and swap him in with maybe Penix,
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that would give us another $ 1, 000. Bumps us up to $ 3, 700. $ 3, 700.
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Let's go back to that stat rankings real quick, and
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let's check out the Saints here. All right, so looking
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at the Saints, Chris Alave lining up on that left side.
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I believe that was the– let's see. So he's got–
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He's got about 11 targets in this region right here.
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And when you sync that up with the Atlanta defense,
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there's about 18 targets that they've been in this region.
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They get targeted a lot on this side, but like
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this side, they have 21 targets over here. And Olave
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actually has a decent amount over on this side too.
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So he's got about 10 over on this side. And
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that is where they are getting targeted at a heavy rate.
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So we got 21 targets in this region here between
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the 10 and the 20 yard lines. So we got 0.11
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fantasy points per route run in this area here. That's
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what that 0.11 is. So let's close this out and
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let's go and look at Devon Vele. Vele got nine
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of his targets on this side. So he's primarily... getting
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his targets on the left side of the field, which
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that 20 syncs up. He has 0.2 fantasy points per
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outrun when he's running in this area, and Atlanta's giving
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up 0.10 when they are targeted in this area. So
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that's right where Vele primarily gets targeted. So that is
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a good, kind of a sweet spot for him. They're
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also vulnerable here, and they get targeted more here Bailey,
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not so many targets on the right side of the field.
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So that seemed to be primarily where we saw Olave
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getting 10 targets. So Olave has the better matchup on paper,
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but we also have a decent matchup for Bailey. So
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either one of those guys is going to work for
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us based on that heat chart. So let's go back
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over to DraftKings and let's maybe swap out. Let's see.
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Let's take out Olave and let's put in Vele just
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to see what it opens up for us. Obviously, we
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want Olave over Vele, but let's see what we can
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do since we're kind of restricted with Bijan in that
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captain spot. Let's see. So if we got him in there,
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I don't want to... I want to get London back
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in there. So that leaves us with 4,300 per guy.
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If you scroll down far enough, maybe we can get
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one of these kickers. But let's put Dotson back in there. Now,
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that leaves us with too many receivers for the Falcons.
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Let's go with... Let's say Smith. Or sorry, no. Carlson
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is the starter. Let's go Carlson. That's going to leave
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us with 3,900. So we have options here like Brian Robinson,
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Falcons D. Falcons D with the Bijan stack has correlation
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at least. You know, got Hooper and Zaccheaus. So we
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have options, but I don't like using that many receivers
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without having a a quarterback in there. So that's why
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I don't like using these expensive guys in the captain
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kind of restricts us. Sometimes they go off like they're
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supposed to, but like ultimately that's going to be like,
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you know, like 50% of the time, something like that,
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maybe a little bit less, but they have a greater
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probability of doing it, but it's not a guarantee. So
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let's go down in price a little bit. Let's get
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that pits captain in there. Remember, Subscribe to the YouTube channel.
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00:27:47.359 --> 00:27:49.759
Help me get to 3,000 so I can put my
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00:27:49.920 --> 00:27:51.900
final core plays, once I've had a little bit more
400
00:27:51.960 --> 00:27:57.349
time to think through this, in the comments section. And
401
00:27:57.369 --> 00:28:00.309
go over to sportnuggets.com and subscribe over there as well.
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00:28:01.529 --> 00:28:06.109
Kyle Pitts in the captain. Let's go with Bijan. Let's
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00:28:06.130 --> 00:28:12.759
go with Olave. And let's go with London. I mean,
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00:28:12.779 --> 00:28:17.640
there's a lot of high-priced guys in this slate, so
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00:28:17.700 --> 00:28:20.769
it's going to be a little bit tricky. And we
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got Shuck and Penix, too, who are also high-upside guys.
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So if I'm trying to figure this out, we're going
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00:28:33.779 --> 00:28:37.440
to have to– If we're building a handful of lineups,
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00:28:37.460 --> 00:28:39.019
we're going to have to try to figure out one
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of these guys that we don't want to have a
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ton of exposure to. And based on the numbers, it's
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probably going to be... Let's go with Olave. Let's take
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Olave out and let's put Penix in. So that way
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00:29:05.029 --> 00:29:10.480
we got Penix to Pitts, Robinson and London. So you
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00:29:10.500 --> 00:29:13.759
know what? Let's take London out since we got Pitts
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00:29:14.039 --> 00:29:17.500
and Robinson in here with Penix. Let's get Alave back
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00:29:17.579 --> 00:29:22.559
in there. Let's scroll down a bit and get one
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of these kickers in here. So we got the touchdowns
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00:29:28.750 --> 00:29:33.460
maybe being scored by Pitts, but we need a Excuse
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00:29:33.519 --> 00:29:36.220
why we don't have Tyler Shuck. So putting his kicker
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00:29:36.339 --> 00:29:47.109
in there makes sense. Carlson. That leaves us with $ 4, 900.
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00:29:44.750 --> 00:29:46.670
We can get Fant in there if we wanted to.
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00:29:49.690 --> 00:29:57.630
Where's Juwan Johnson? He's pretty expensive at $ 7, 400. $ 7, 400. Let's
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00:29:57.650 --> 00:30:00.920
say we want to go with Juwan Johnson instead of Olave.
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00:30:06.400 --> 00:30:13.269
Where'd he go? Juwan Johnson. That way we got the
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00:30:13.380 --> 00:30:18.250
tight end weaknesses for both defenses. It leaves us with 8,300.
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At least with 8,300, we can get up to Vele.
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And we're sacrificing Olave, but we're getting Johnson and Vele
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00:30:26.740 --> 00:30:30.309
in there So we're hoping that those Olave targets are
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going to those guys. We could put in Kamara if
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we wanted to. We have a decent amount of options there.
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00:30:41.529 --> 00:30:45.319
Let's take out Pitts. And let's go with London instead
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in the captain and see what that restricts us to.
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00:30:47.839 --> 00:30:51.420
That brings us down to 2K. Zaccheaus, we can still
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00:30:51.440 --> 00:30:54.259
get in there, which isn't bad. And we have a
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00:30:54.299 --> 00:30:58.210
couple other options. This one still works. Because we got
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Penix to London. And then Penix also getting points for
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passing the Bijon. And then on the other side, we
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00:31:04.460 --> 00:31:12.059
got Juwan Johnson and Carlson. We want to take out Carlson.
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00:31:12.079 --> 00:31:17.380
Let's find the cheapest guy that we would be comfortable with.
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00:31:18.619 --> 00:31:21.529
It's probably Zaccheaus. Let's get Zaccheaus. And that leaves us
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with 4,800. And so, yeah, I mean, Carlson. Let's see.
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Last one, you know, maybe we'll do an Olave lineup.
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So we go to Olave. And if we have Olave,
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00:31:37.000 --> 00:31:41.059
we probably want Shuck in there. And we probably want Bijan.
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Because the Saints are giving up 28.2 DraftKings points to
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the running back position. So... If we got Shuck in there,
448
00:31:54.380 --> 00:31:57.380
let's give him another receiver. So let's give him Johnson
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since he's cheaper than Vele. And let's get Pitts in
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00:32:00.400 --> 00:32:07.579
there too, if we can. So let's take, you know,
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let's take, let's take Johnson out. This is with 3,300
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per guy. So we could put in Dotson. Leaves us
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with 36. We could put in the Falcons D or
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00:32:29.140 --> 00:32:33.200
something or Austin Hooper. Gives us a few options. We're
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going to have to do some more thinking through this
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one because this is a tricky one. I think Kyle
457
00:32:38.880 --> 00:32:46.480
Pitts might be my favorite captain though. Just because of
458
00:32:46.539 --> 00:32:48.920
all those signals and he's going to make it the
459
00:32:49.099 --> 00:32:51.309
easiest for us to try to jam in some of
460
00:32:51.329 --> 00:33:00.660
these guys. So we got Bijan, Olave. We got Penix.
461
00:33:01.720 --> 00:33:07.119
And then let's get Johnson in there too. Leaves us
462
00:33:07.220 --> 00:33:13.450
with 2,300. Zaccheaus. It gives us options here. We could
463
00:33:14.670 --> 00:33:18.539
always take out Penix and put in Shuck too. And,
464
00:33:18.740 --> 00:33:22.079
you know, just having a different quarterback for the captain
465
00:33:22.119 --> 00:33:25.309
can sometimes differentiate you pretty good. And then we have
466
00:33:25.329 --> 00:33:28.470
him passing to Johnson and Olave down here anyways. At
467
00:33:28.490 --> 00:33:32.250
least it's with 1700. And, you know, that puts us in,
468
00:33:32.509 --> 00:33:36.490
you know, kind of a no man's land as far
469
00:33:36.529 --> 00:33:38.970
as our options are there. So we probably have to take,
470
00:33:38.990 --> 00:33:42.410
you know, if you went this direction, we probably have
471
00:33:42.450 --> 00:33:49.259
to take like Olave out. And if we took Olave out,
472
00:33:51.460 --> 00:33:54.740
we could put in Penix and go double quarterback. That
473
00:33:54.779 --> 00:33:58.140
leaves us with 3,500. And then we got Dotson, like,
474
00:33:58.180 --> 00:34:00.500
as an option or something like that. So, you know,
475
00:34:00.519 --> 00:34:02.480
a couple different ways we can go. I think it's
476
00:34:02.500 --> 00:34:05.059
going to take a little bit more playing around to
477
00:34:05.099 --> 00:34:08.900
get a better feel for building these lineups. But, you know,
478
00:34:09.019 --> 00:34:12.260
like I said, make sure to sign up over at sportnuggets.com.
479
00:34:13.449 --> 00:34:15.289
For when I put out, you know, like the free article,
480
00:34:15.349 --> 00:34:18.019
if you guys hit 150 likes– I'll put out the
481
00:34:18.079 --> 00:34:21.159
article for free. You can get that over at sportnuggets.com
482
00:34:21.199 --> 00:34:25.329
in that article section I showed you. Or subscribe to
483
00:34:25.349 --> 00:34:27.889
the channel. Give me the 3,000 subscribers. I'm going to
484
00:34:27.929 --> 00:34:30.989
put my core plays in the comments section if you
485
00:34:31.030 --> 00:34:34.210
guys hit it. I only need about 50 left. So
486
00:34:34.269 --> 00:34:37.059
last week alone on this Monday show, we got 50.
487
00:34:37.059 --> 00:34:40.920
So let's do it again, guys. Give me the 3,000,
488
00:34:40.920 --> 00:34:44.940
and I will see you next week or on Thursday.
1
00:00:01.030 --> 00:00:04.209
Hey, what's up, guys, and welcome to another episode of GameScript.
2
00:00:04.290 --> 00:00:07.429
We're looking at the Atlanta Falcons versus the New Orleans
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00:00:07.509 --> 00:00:11.289
Saints on Monday Night Football. Going to be breaking down
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00:00:11.349 --> 00:00:15.759
the statistics and analytics behind the matchups in this one
5
00:00:15.820 --> 00:00:19.879
to try to find our best plays for DraftKings Showdown Contest.
6
00:00:19.920 --> 00:00:22.019
We're going to try to come down with the best
7
00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:25.239
captain options and build some lineups. And if you like
8
00:00:25.280 --> 00:00:28.050
this type of content, make sure to subscribe over at
9
00:00:28.089 --> 00:00:32.009
the YouTube channel Looking to hit 3,000 subscribers. Only need
10
00:00:32.030 --> 00:00:34.929
about 50 left to get there. Get me to 50
11
00:00:34.929 --> 00:00:37.789
and I'll put my core plays in the comment section
12
00:00:37.850 --> 00:00:40.719
or I'll give you guys a link to the core plays.
13
00:00:40.799 --> 00:00:43.340
So make sure to hit that subscribe. You want to
14
00:00:43.380 --> 00:00:46.780
subscribe anyways because I break down all these games and
15
00:00:46.840 --> 00:00:49.320
put up shows for it. Also hit that like button.
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00:00:49.340 --> 00:00:53.000
Give me 250 likes. I'll make my premium article for
17
00:00:53.100 --> 00:00:55.719
free this week. So the total in this game is
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00:00:55.759 --> 00:00:59.689
a 48.5 point total. We're looking at New Orleans is
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00:00:59.810 --> 00:01:02.969
two and a half point favorites. They're playing in New Orleans.
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00:01:03.009 --> 00:01:05.189
So we got a dome. It'd be a dome either
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00:01:05.230 --> 00:01:08.310
way because Atlanta is in a dome as well. But
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00:01:08.870 --> 00:01:12.549
it's going to be a pretty good game. It's a
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divisional matchup. And these teams usually play each other pretty well.
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And we got the starting quarterback for Atlanta is back.
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00:01:21.870 --> 00:01:25.079
He came back last week with Michael Penix. And he
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00:01:25.109 --> 00:01:28.209
had a good game against Green Bay last week. And,
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00:01:28.269 --> 00:01:31.969
you know, wasted no time coming back from that ACL injury,
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00:01:32.019 --> 00:01:35.180
which is good news for this offense who was struggling
29
00:01:35.280 --> 00:01:39.469
up until last week. So we'll take a look first
30
00:01:39.750 --> 00:01:44.510
over at DraftKings. And this is where we're going to
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00:01:44.549 --> 00:01:47.219
build our lineups. We'll go through all these players. What
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00:01:47.230 --> 00:01:50.040
we do first before we get into this is we
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00:01:50.099 --> 00:01:53.000
go over and we look at the injuries to find
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00:01:53.060 --> 00:01:55.319
out what is significant and where we can find some
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00:01:55.340 --> 00:01:58.819
of these matchup advantages when we're breaking it down. If
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00:01:58.840 --> 00:02:03.219
we're looking over at the Falcons, Trey Sermon is on IR,
37
00:02:04.170 --> 00:02:10.050
Bo Collins on IR, Cameron Williams on IR, the left tackle.
38
00:02:11.210 --> 00:02:13.250
So that's a little bit of a depth issue on
39
00:02:13.310 --> 00:02:18.360
the offensive line. As far as the defense, Deshaun Hand
40
00:02:18.819 --> 00:02:22.860
is on IR. We got a couple guys that are
41
00:02:22.960 --> 00:02:27.500
questionable starters on the linebacker core. We got Devine Diablo
42
00:02:28.180 --> 00:02:34.319
and Samson Aboukam. And we have James Pierce still suspended.
43
00:02:34.840 --> 00:02:38.120
AJ Terrell, that's a significant one, too. He's on IR.
44
00:02:38.860 --> 00:02:44.250
And D'Angelo Malone is out. So this linebacker core is
45
00:02:44.310 --> 00:02:48.050
looking good. uh, you know, pretty, pretty thin with these, uh,
46
00:02:48.090 --> 00:02:51.310
this suspended guy and the guy that's out then J uh,
47
00:02:51.389 --> 00:02:54.710
JD Bertrand is out as well. And then, uh, uh,
48
00:02:54.770 --> 00:02:58.189
divine Diablo questionable, like I said, so that's a little
49
00:02:58.210 --> 00:03:03.789
bit of thinness on the offense, uh, the, uh, linebacker core, uh, left, uh,
50
00:03:04.069 --> 00:03:09.689
left cornerback. That's where AJ Terrell is out. His brother actually, uh, uh,
51
00:03:10.069 --> 00:03:15.580
played last week, I believe. Um, Where was he at, A.J. Terrell?
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00:03:18.180 --> 00:03:21.310
I don't see him in here. But so we got,
53
00:03:22.069 --> 00:03:24.889
let's see, the rest of it seems, oh, there he is,
54
00:03:25.050 --> 00:03:28.090
Avion Terrell. So the rest of them seem pretty healthy.
55
00:03:28.129 --> 00:03:30.270
It looks like they got Billy Bowman back. So Billy
56
00:03:30.289 --> 00:03:33.870
Bowman on nickel back. That's bad news for the slot
57
00:03:33.909 --> 00:03:37.530
receivers of the Saints. So let's get over to New
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00:03:37.629 --> 00:03:44.129
Orleans here. So now with the Saints coming, We're looking at,
59
00:03:44.150 --> 00:03:48.610
you know, ETN is going to be on IR. So
60
00:03:48.710 --> 00:03:53.490
that's going to push Alvin Kamara and Kendra Miller to
61
00:03:53.530 --> 00:03:57.810
the forefront of the running back committee there. As far
62
00:03:57.870 --> 00:04:01.129
as the wide receivers, Jordan Tyson was supposed to be
63
00:04:01.169 --> 00:04:05.110
the stud rookie receiver, and he went on IR before
64
00:04:05.129 --> 00:04:08.490
the season even started, I believe. And he's going to
65
00:04:08.509 --> 00:04:12.129
be gone for multiple weeks. As far as tight end,
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00:04:12.210 --> 00:04:17.009
Noah Fant is questionable. That's significant because Fant took a
67
00:04:17.050 --> 00:04:19.750
decent amount of work away from Juwan Johnson last week.
68
00:04:20.410 --> 00:04:24.629
Kevin Banks Jr. on the left tackle is on IR.
69
00:04:25.310 --> 00:04:31.939
Really thin on the left guard with Raduns and Saldivari
70
00:04:32.449 --> 00:04:37.639
both out. If we're going down to the defense, this
71
00:04:37.699 --> 00:04:41.709
is where we have some significant injuries. We got, uh,
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00:04:41.790 --> 00:04:46.029
Granderson and, uh, Caden Ellis both out. So that's going
73
00:04:46.050 --> 00:04:48.370
to be a good news for Bijan as if he
74
00:04:48.410 --> 00:04:51.980
needs a better matchup. Uh, Anthony Jennings also out. So
75
00:04:52.000 --> 00:04:56.600
they're down to their third, uh, third string, uh, linebacker, uh,
76
00:04:56.639 --> 00:05:01.870
for this position, Brian Breezy on IR as well. Uh,
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00:05:02.350 --> 00:05:05.269
What do we got here? We got Jalen Ford. They
78
00:05:05.290 --> 00:05:08.129
got a lot of injuries on this linebacker, of course.
79
00:05:08.189 --> 00:05:14.459
Very thin on their linebackers here in New Orleans. Let's see.
80
00:05:14.500 --> 00:05:19.699
And then Lorenzo Stiles at the nickel back position on
81
00:05:19.779 --> 00:05:28.240
IR as well. So the matchup overall, the... Saints are allowing,
82
00:05:28.500 --> 00:05:32.879
let's see, 18.2 DraftKings points a game to the quarterback position.
83
00:05:33.660 --> 00:05:38.050
So that is going to be a middling matchup for
84
00:05:38.110 --> 00:05:41.430
Michael Penix Jr. We saw him come back last week.
85
00:05:41.470 --> 00:05:44.949
That 15 points doesn't do justice to what he accomplished
86
00:05:44.990 --> 00:05:48.509
last week. He looked really good. 256 yards. He started
87
00:05:48.600 --> 00:05:52.060
off slow against the Packers last week, found his groove
88
00:05:52.759 --> 00:05:56.199
towards the end of Guy who benefited the most was
89
00:05:56.279 --> 00:06:03.060
Drake London. And the Saints are giving up 28.4 DraftKings
90
00:06:03.120 --> 00:06:06.800
points a game to wideouts. So Drake in another good
91
00:06:06.860 --> 00:06:11.540
matchup here. With the game last week, he had 31.4
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00:06:11.540 --> 00:06:19.439
DraftKings points, which was really good. Olave, we got Olave
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00:06:19.660 --> 00:06:23.040
on the Saints side. He's been on fire this season.
94
00:06:23.079 --> 00:06:26.279
He's having a great year so far, and he's scored
95
00:06:26.360 --> 00:06:30.300
over 20 DraftKings points in each week, over 22 DraftKings
96
00:06:30.360 --> 00:06:33.800
points in each week so far. As far as the Falcons,
97
00:06:33.860 --> 00:06:36.360
the Falcons are giving up, let's see, 27.5. So the
98
00:06:36.379 --> 00:06:44.389
weaknesses of both of these defenses are wideouts so far. Uh,
99
00:06:44.689 --> 00:06:47.699
the Falcons are, uh, the Saints are also weak against
100
00:06:48.139 --> 00:06:52.339
running back position. They've been given up 28.2 DraftKings points, uh,
101
00:06:52.379 --> 00:06:54.319
to the running back position. That of course is going
102
00:06:54.339 --> 00:06:56.639
to be good news for Bijan. And then they have
103
00:06:56.660 --> 00:07:01.259
those linebacker injuries on top of it. So, uh, Bijan, uh,
104
00:07:01.529 --> 00:07:03.689
primed to be the highest scoring guy in the slate.
105
00:07:04.170 --> 00:07:06.009
Question is going to be with all the ownership that
106
00:07:06.029 --> 00:07:08.870
will be on him. How do we get around starting
107
00:07:08.910 --> 00:07:12.949
Bijan in our lineups, uh, uh, for the captain positions?
108
00:07:13.360 --> 00:07:18.040
So he is at $ 11, 800. He's actually $ 200 cheaper than
109
00:07:18.300 --> 00:07:24.610
Jameer Gibbs was for the Lions slate this weekend. Let's see.
110
00:07:24.670 --> 00:07:29.329
We got Tyler Shook. As far as what Atlanta has
111
00:07:29.389 --> 00:07:34.050
been allowing to these quarterbacks, they've been allowing 19.6 DraftKings
112
00:07:34.129 --> 00:07:38.189
points a game. So Atlanta has been vulnerable through the air,
113
00:07:38.269 --> 00:07:41.800
like I said. They were weak against wideouts, too, giving
114
00:07:41.839 --> 00:07:46.350
up 27.5 DraftKings points to wideouts. Both these teams are
115
00:07:46.430 --> 00:07:51.430
also weak against tight ends. The Falcons are giving up 17.2
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00:07:51.430 --> 00:07:57.790
DraftKings points, and the Saints are giving up 21.7 DraftKings points.
117
00:07:58.350 --> 00:08:02.500
So what that says is that maybe this is the
118
00:08:02.560 --> 00:08:10.029
week where we start to see Pitts come alive. Pitts
119
00:08:10.490 --> 00:08:12.689
is at 5,800 too. So we're getting him at a
120
00:08:12.860 --> 00:08:15.699
significant discount when everybody has given up on the guy.
121
00:08:16.459 --> 00:08:19.480
And last year we were in the same spot and
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00:08:19.500 --> 00:08:21.939
we started Pitts in the captain and he ended up
123
00:08:22.000 --> 00:08:25.120
going off and nobody had him in the captain last
124
00:08:25.160 --> 00:08:28.720
year when we had this exact same situation where everybody
125
00:08:28.740 --> 00:08:34.029
had given up on him and he ended up exploding
126
00:08:34.070 --> 00:08:37.110
in that game. So we'll keep Pits in mind when
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00:08:37.129 --> 00:08:40.610
we're building our lineups this week. If we're going to
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00:08:40.669 --> 00:08:44.190
some of these other guys, Vele has played a significant
129
00:08:44.250 --> 00:08:47.350
role on this team. You see nine, seven, and six
130
00:08:47.570 --> 00:08:50.269
targets in the last few games, and he's been getting
131
00:08:50.309 --> 00:08:53.600
a decent amount of fantasy points on top of it.
132
00:08:54.210 --> 00:08:58.149
Had a little bit of a downturn last week. Juwan Johnson,
133
00:08:59.090 --> 00:09:02.110
he's been on fire as well. He has a shower
134
00:09:02.149 --> 00:09:05.610
narrative going with Tyler Shuck. Those two went to college together,
135
00:09:05.649 --> 00:09:09.879
and they've been friends for years. And you can see
136
00:09:09.929 --> 00:09:13.679
it in his output, scoring over 10 DraftKings points a game,
137
00:09:13.700 --> 00:09:16.159
which is great for a tight end, seven, four, and
138
00:09:16.340 --> 00:09:21.120
eight targets. So Juwan Johnson definitely in play, especially with
139
00:09:21.220 --> 00:09:25.840
Atlanta having that weak spot against the tight end position. Kamara,
140
00:09:26.220 --> 00:09:29.500
last week he came back. He had nine rushing attempts
141
00:09:29.519 --> 00:09:31.539
for 36 yards. So let's go over and look at
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00:09:31.559 --> 00:09:35.820
the snap counts real quick. And let's go and check
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00:09:35.899 --> 00:09:41.200
out the New Orleans Saints. And you can see that
144
00:09:41.419 --> 00:09:45.620
Alvin Kamara last week had a 32% snap count. ETN,
145
00:09:45.840 --> 00:09:51.320
obviously the starter, got hurt mid-game last week. 38% snap
146
00:09:51.320 --> 00:09:56.009
count last week. 32 for Kamara. uh, CJ Donaldson had
147
00:09:56.029 --> 00:10:01.379
an 16%, uh, and then Kendra Miller had a 19%. So,
148
00:10:01.759 --> 00:10:05.200
you know, like, I mean, it's going to be tough
149
00:10:05.220 --> 00:10:08.399
to narrow down which of one of these, uh, which
150
00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:12.080
one of these guys between Kamara and Miller might be
151
00:10:12.120 --> 00:10:16.240
the starter or getting the most workload in this one. So,
152
00:10:16.259 --> 00:10:18.759
you know, that is going to be, uh, you know,
153
00:10:18.779 --> 00:10:20.889
a question mark. But the thing is, is Atlanta is
154
00:10:20.929 --> 00:10:23.570
only giving up 13 DraftKings points a game to the
155
00:10:23.629 --> 00:10:27.110
running back position as it is. So, you know, maybe, uh,
156
00:10:27.210 --> 00:10:29.330
maybe that's a position that we don't have to worry
157
00:10:29.389 --> 00:10:31.909
about as much. And we focus on the past game
158
00:10:32.450 --> 00:10:36.440
for the, uh, for the saints. So scrolling back down,
159
00:10:36.460 --> 00:10:43.019
we got folk over on Atlanta, 5,400. We got, uh,
160
00:10:43.100 --> 00:10:48.210
Kendra Miller, as I mentioned, uh, only 3.9 DraftKings points
161
00:10:48.279 --> 00:10:56.429
last week. We got Carlson slash Smythe or Smith. And like,
162
00:10:56.450 --> 00:11:03.039
I can't remember last week. Wasn't Smith ended up? No,
163
00:11:03.080 --> 00:11:05.500
Smith is, I'm thinking of a different Smith. They both
164
00:11:05.539 --> 00:11:10.620
spelled their Smiths weird. So that got me confused with
165
00:11:11.179 --> 00:11:14.009
one of the other kickers. I think his last name
166
00:11:14.029 --> 00:11:19.440
was Smith. I'm thinking of a different game though. Daniel Carlson, though, six, 13,
167
00:11:19.429 --> 00:11:24.289
and three DraftKings points so far with the Saints this year. Carlson,
168
00:11:24.820 --> 00:11:31.059
you know, and the kicker for the Falcons, Sfolk, will
169
00:11:31.080 --> 00:11:33.799
both be in play this week. Noah Fant, we're going
170
00:11:33.820 --> 00:11:36.200
to want to keep an eye on his condition. You
171
00:11:36.220 --> 00:11:40.019
can see 13 and 19 DraftKings points. They're kind of
172
00:11:40.139 --> 00:11:43.149
leaning on these tight ends, it looks like, over in
173
00:11:43.429 --> 00:11:46.419
New Orleans, and we do have a good tight end
174
00:11:46.480 --> 00:11:50.679
matchup against Atlanta. So, uh, tight ends will be significant
175
00:11:50.720 --> 00:11:57.139
this week. Uh, Saints, uh, Saints D, uh, probably not
176
00:11:57.250 --> 00:11:59.549
so interested in the defenses in this one. I think
177
00:11:59.570 --> 00:12:02.710
this is more of a shootout type of situation. And
178
00:12:02.769 --> 00:12:06.029
we have those, uh, those injuries on the, uh, you know,
179
00:12:06.049 --> 00:12:10.110
like on the Saints that, you know, I don't necessarily
180
00:12:10.230 --> 00:12:12.960
want to, uh, to trust a, a team that has
181
00:12:13.009 --> 00:12:15.879
significant injuries, especially on the linebacker where they're going to
182
00:12:15.899 --> 00:12:21.440
be facing Bijan Robinson. So let's see who else we got.
183
00:12:21.480 --> 00:12:24.980
We got Brian Robinson. Brian Robinson actually played a significant
184
00:12:25.019 --> 00:12:27.940
role last week too. He ended up with 11 DraftKings points,
185
00:12:27.940 --> 00:12:30.340
10 rushing attempts for 50 yards. So he had a
186
00:12:30.399 --> 00:12:36.450
five yard per carry average. Falcons D, you know, same situation.
187
00:12:36.490 --> 00:12:39.370
I don't know that I'm necessarily interested in the Falcons D,
188
00:12:39.389 --> 00:12:43.830
especially on the road. Uh, Jahan Dotson, uh, he's going
189
00:12:43.850 --> 00:12:45.740
to be interesting. Let's go and look at the snap
190
00:12:45.769 --> 00:12:50.480
counts for Jahan Dotson. I remember him playing a, uh,
191
00:12:50.480 --> 00:12:53.159
you know, like a pretty significant role. It felt like
192
00:12:53.220 --> 00:12:59.149
last week, but maybe I'm just imagining things. 66% snap count. Um, uh,
193
00:12:59.179 --> 00:13:04.509
Zacchaeus at 34% snap count and, uh, London, obviously a
194
00:13:04.509 --> 00:13:07.850
93% snap count. He's the, uh, the heaviest involved guy.
195
00:13:09.769 --> 00:13:16.320
So let's go and, uh, see how, uh, how John
196
00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:19.399
Dotson did last. He had three targets last week, only
197
00:13:19.399 --> 00:13:22.679
11 yards. So, uh, for, for some reason, I felt
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like he had a more significant role last week. Uh,
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Hooper sniped our touchdown last week. I remember, uh, I
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can't remember, um, who we had. It wasn't pits, but
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like he, uh, he sniped, he sniped our touchdown regardless. Um, Branch,
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not really interested there. Zaccheaus, he plays enough so that
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we can keep him in our player pool. He's at 2K.
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Let's see. And that's about it as far as the players.
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So now let's try to figure out where we want
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to go with this. And before we do that, make
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sure to go over to sportnuggets.com. Sign up for an
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account over there. That's where I'll put my free article.
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You can sign up for an account over there for
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00:14:09.340 --> 00:14:13.139
free and follow our news feed. You don't even need
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an account to follow the news feed. You just need
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an account to click on the actual nuggets and to
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hit the see more and find out the exact summary
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and analysis on one of these things. But you can
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see the headlines and you can look at the sources
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basically without signing up for anything. But when you sign up,
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you can sign up for a free account Or you
218
00:14:36.620 --> 00:14:38.940
can sign up for one of our premium subscriptions, and
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that's where we do all the core plays and the
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premium articles that I do and stuff like that. Sik-Hemi
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is doing one too. Sik-Hemi's been on fire with his
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NFL picks so far this season. He won the DraftKings
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Showdown Contest a couple weeks ago, ended up winning 38K
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in it, the major DraftKings one. So we've got a
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good team of analysts. We've got Spread Astaire, too. He's
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like 16-5 with his betting picks this season so far.
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So you get his betting picks as well. So going
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back to what we need to focus on here, the Falcons,
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let's go and check out. They are a zone-heavy team.
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So we'll go to statrankings.com and kind of check out,
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you know, like how much zone coverage that these guys
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are running. And you see the Saints are a top
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nine team running zone coverage. So, you know, the Saints
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are a heavy zone team. Falcons are kind of a middling.
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So they're half zone, half man, which is noteworthy. So
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let's go over to our receivers now. Using statrankings.com, we'll
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see the target rates of these guys for zone coverage.
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So like I said, Saints are running zone at a
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top 10 rate. We see Bijan, the primary target, 35.9%
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target share, 25.8% for Drake London. By the way, if
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you guys want an account at statrankings.com, check the link
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00:16:21.549 --> 00:16:24.049
in the description below. I have a link there that's
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00:16:24.070 --> 00:16:27.090
going to get you 20% off a subscription. So click
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00:16:27.129 --> 00:16:31.220
that link or use the promo code SEEK, S-E-E-K, when
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you sign up for an account. Site is great. All
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the stats that I like to look at are all
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in one spot, and it makes it so much easier
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than having a bunch of windows open. So we got
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Austin Hooper. That is significant. 23.8% target rate in zone coverage.
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Kyle Pitts down all the way at 10.6%. Let's look
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and see what that was like in 2025. Where was
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Pitts in 2025 for his zone? He was higher up
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at 20%. So he's got some regression coming to him,
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probably with these targets. He's got some regression coming in general.
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And facing against this Atlanta team, I mean this New
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Orleans team that's given up defensively, What were they giving up?
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They're giving up 21.7 DraftKings points a game to the
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tight end position. That's one of the best positions you
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can be in, like against the Saints. And they're also
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giving up a 23% target rate. So that target rate
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to the slot is also going to be significant for
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Kyle Pitts. Let's look and see where the alignments are
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for these guys. Slot snaps... Let's do slot rate. And
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we're going to go back to Atlanta again. And Zaccheaus,
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78% in the slot. Chris Blair. Drake London, significant, 34%
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in the slot. Kyle Pitts, 29%. So Pitts and London
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and obviously Bijon stand out. And if we need value
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at the captain, that's going to give us an option
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with Pitts where we can get like a lower owned
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guy who's going to be sneaky. Nobody wants to click
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on Pitts these days. That's going to make it easier
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for us to start him. So if we go back over,
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let's go and find out where AJ Terrell was lining up.
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I'm going to go back to Atlanta and look at
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their depth chart. So he was lining up. primarily on
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the left. So that is where we're going to find
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our weakness here for the Falcons defense. Let's go back
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over here to stat rankings. I'm going to show you
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guys a new tool that they created. It is a
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matchup tool, cornerback wide receiver matchup tool. So we're going
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to go and we're going to look at Atlanta first.
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And we're going to see, you know, we know that
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the Saints are vulnerable against slot receivers. So let's see
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exactly how these guys' routes line up. So we're going
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to go to Drake London first. Now we can see
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Drake London, you know, he's had a majority of his targets.
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Let's see, he's had four and three on this left
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side here. Uh, he's had, uh, you know, three and
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three on the, on the right side. So more targets
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over here on the left side. So let's see on
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the left side. 21 targets allowed in this region for
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the Saints. And you can see that that is, you know,
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like one of Drake London's heavier target quadrants or squares here.
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He has three targets in this region. And you can
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see that It's matching up with where the Saints have
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been vulnerable, getting eight targets in this region. And then
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11 targets over here and 12 targets over here. So
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00:20:19.740 --> 00:20:23.279
that's a little bit less for Drake London, but he
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still has four targets in that general area. But what
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we're seeing is this spot over here lines up with
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the weaker spot for the Saints, which is good news
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for Drake London. Let's check out... Let's see. Let's see
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Alameda's Kias. Not a whole lot of targets to go
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with here, but he kind of fits in with the
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00:20:48.930 --> 00:20:52.069
weak spot here of the Saints. We know that because
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of slot receivers. Let's check out Jahan Dotson. Jahan Dotson,
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00:20:57.289 --> 00:21:02.329
we've seen him getting most of his targets here on
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00:21:02.369 --> 00:21:06.519
the right side. And that aligns with this weak spot here.
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00:21:06.579 --> 00:21:11.799
So Jahan Dotson might be an interesting cheap play. Let's
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00:21:11.819 --> 00:21:17.220
go and look at his snap counts. You see Jahan Dotson,
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66% snap count last week. Zaccheaus had a 34. Dotson
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00:21:22.910 --> 00:21:28.230
might be interesting to us this week as a sneaky
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guy if we think the game is going to shoot
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out a bit. That's where I think that it would
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00:21:32.529 --> 00:21:35.869
be most interesting, and that's what we're looking at for
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this show. We're trying to find the sneakier plays for
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a showdown episode so we can compete with the guys
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who are putting 150 lineups in there. We want to
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be able to pinpoint where these vulnerabilities are so we're
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not just going with average projections and how much fantasy
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points a guy typically scores without taking anything into context. So, okay,
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let's go back over and try to figure out, you know,
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what direction that we want to go here. So let's
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start out with the chalky lineup first. Let's go with
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Bijan in the captain. London, you know, going to want him.
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00:22:17.509 --> 00:22:19.170
And let's get Olave. Those are going to be the
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00:22:19.210 --> 00:22:25.130
big three, I think. Leaves us with 3,800 per guy.
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00:22:25.569 --> 00:22:28.390
So let's go down to Pitts. Let's put Pitts in there.
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00:22:29.380 --> 00:22:35.670
This leaves us with $ 2, 800 per guy. And we saw
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that Zaccheaus gets some, but he doesn't have a high
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snap count. So let's look at... Who was the other
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guy that I wanted? Jahan Dotson. Where's Dotson at? Dotson
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is cheap. We might be able to get away with
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putting him in this lineup as well. Leaves us with $ 2, 700.
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That's going to put us in Zaccheaus's. I don't know
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if I want that. I don't want that many Falcons
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in my lineup. So it ends up being a little
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bit tricky when you use Bijan. If we wanted to
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take London out and swap him in with maybe Penix,
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that would give us another $ 1, 000. Bumps us up to $ 3, 700. $ 3, 700.
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Let's go back to that stat rankings real quick, and
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let's check out the Saints here. All right, so looking
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at the Saints, Chris Alave lining up on that left side.
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I believe that was the– let's see. So he's got–
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He's got about 11 targets in this region right here.
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And when you sync that up with the Atlanta defense,
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there's about 18 targets that they've been in this region.
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They get targeted a lot on this side, but like
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00:24:07.099 --> 00:24:13.309
this side, they have 21 targets over here. And Olave
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actually has a decent amount over on this side too.
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So he's got about 10 over on this side. And
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that is where they are getting targeted at a heavy rate.
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00:24:21.849 --> 00:24:25.269
So we got 21 targets in this region here between
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the 10 and the 20 yard lines. So we got 0.11
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fantasy points per route run in this area here. That's
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what that 0.11 is. So let's close this out and
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let's go and look at Devon Vele. Vele got nine
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of his targets on this side. So he's primarily... getting
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his targets on the left side of the field, which
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00:24:50.630 --> 00:24:54.930
that 20 syncs up. He has 0.2 fantasy points per
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00:24:54.990 --> 00:24:57.950
outrun when he's running in this area, and Atlanta's giving
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00:24:58.009 --> 00:25:02.569
up 0.10 when they are targeted in this area. So
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00:25:02.609 --> 00:25:07.799
that's right where Vele primarily gets targeted. So that is
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a good, kind of a sweet spot for him. They're
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also vulnerable here, and they get targeted more here Bailey,
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not so many targets on the right side of the field.
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So that seemed to be primarily where we saw Olave
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getting 10 targets. So Olave has the better matchup on paper,
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but we also have a decent matchup for Bailey. So
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either one of those guys is going to work for
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us based on that heat chart. So let's go back
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over to DraftKings and let's maybe swap out. Let's see.
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Let's take out Olave and let's put in Vele just
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to see what it opens up for us. Obviously, we
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want Olave over Vele, but let's see what we can
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do since we're kind of restricted with Bijan in that
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captain spot. Let's see. So if we got him in there,
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00:26:16.769 --> 00:26:19.039
I don't want to... I want to get London back
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in there. So that leaves us with 4,300 per guy.
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00:26:26.359 --> 00:26:29.259
If you scroll down far enough, maybe we can get
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00:26:29.339 --> 00:26:37.190
one of these kickers. But let's put Dotson back in there. Now,
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00:26:37.269 --> 00:26:42.130
that leaves us with too many receivers for the Falcons.
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Let's go with... Let's say Smith. Or sorry, no. Carlson
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is the starter. Let's go Carlson. That's going to leave
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00:26:58.380 --> 00:27:01.940
us with 3,900. So we have options here like Brian Robinson,
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00:27:02.460 --> 00:27:07.200
Falcons D. Falcons D with the Bijan stack has correlation
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at least. You know, got Hooper and Zaccheaus. So we
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00:27:10.910 --> 00:27:13.650
have options, but I don't like using that many receivers
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without having a a quarterback in there. So that's why
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00:27:16.309 --> 00:27:19.809
I don't like using these expensive guys in the captain
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kind of restricts us. Sometimes they go off like they're
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00:27:23.589 --> 00:27:26.549
supposed to, but like ultimately that's going to be like,
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you know, like 50% of the time, something like that,
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maybe a little bit less, but they have a greater
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00:27:33.440 --> 00:27:37.460
probability of doing it, but it's not a guarantee. So
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00:27:37.579 --> 00:27:40.079
let's go down in price a little bit. Let's get
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that pits captain in there. Remember, Subscribe to the YouTube channel.
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00:27:47.359 --> 00:27:49.759
Help me get to 3,000 so I can put my
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00:27:49.920 --> 00:27:51.900
final core plays, once I've had a little bit more
400
00:27:51.960 --> 00:27:57.349
time to think through this, in the comments section. And
401
00:27:57.369 --> 00:28:00.309
go over to sportnuggets.com and subscribe over there as well.
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Kyle Pitts in the captain. Let's go with Bijan. Let's
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00:28:06.130 --> 00:28:12.759
go with Olave. And let's go with London. I mean,
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00:28:12.779 --> 00:28:17.640
there's a lot of high-priced guys in this slate, so
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00:28:17.700 --> 00:28:20.769
it's going to be a little bit tricky. And we
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00:28:21.769 --> 00:28:26.890
got Shuck and Penix, too, who are also high-upside guys.
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00:28:27.349 --> 00:28:33.759
So if I'm trying to figure this out, we're going
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00:28:33.779 --> 00:28:37.440
to have to– If we're building a handful of lineups,
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00:28:37.460 --> 00:28:39.019
we're going to have to try to figure out one
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00:28:39.059 --> 00:28:41.220
of these guys that we don't want to have a
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00:28:41.259 --> 00:28:52.769
ton of exposure to. And based on the numbers, it's
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00:28:52.920 --> 00:29:00.349
probably going to be... Let's go with Olave. Let's take
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Olave out and let's put Penix in. So that way
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00:29:05.029 --> 00:29:10.480
we got Penix to Pitts, Robinson and London. So you
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00:29:10.500 --> 00:29:13.759
know what? Let's take London out since we got Pitts
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00:29:14.039 --> 00:29:17.500
and Robinson in here with Penix. Let's get Alave back
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in there. Let's scroll down a bit and get one
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of these kickers in here. So we got the touchdowns
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00:29:28.750 --> 00:29:33.460
maybe being scored by Pitts, but we need a Excuse
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why we don't have Tyler Shuck. So putting his kicker
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00:29:36.339 --> 00:29:47.109
in there makes sense. Carlson. That leaves us with $ 4, 900.
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00:29:44.750 --> 00:29:46.670
We can get Fant in there if we wanted to.
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00:29:49.690 --> 00:29:57.630
Where's Juwan Johnson? He's pretty expensive at $ 7, 400. $ 7, 400. Let's
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00:29:57.650 --> 00:30:00.920
say we want to go with Juwan Johnson instead of Olave.
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00:30:06.400 --> 00:30:13.269
Where'd he go? Juwan Johnson. That way we got the
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tight end weaknesses for both defenses. It leaves us with 8,300.
427
00:30:18.250 --> 00:30:20.950
At least with 8,300, we can get up to Vele.
428
00:30:21.849 --> 00:30:26.619
And we're sacrificing Olave, but we're getting Johnson and Vele
429
00:30:26.740 --> 00:30:30.309
in there So we're hoping that those Olave targets are
430
00:30:30.329 --> 00:30:34.109
going to those guys. We could put in Kamara if
431
00:30:34.130 --> 00:30:39.789
we wanted to. We have a decent amount of options there.
432
00:30:41.529 --> 00:30:45.319
Let's take out Pitts. And let's go with London instead
433
00:30:45.380 --> 00:30:47.799
in the captain and see what that restricts us to.
434
00:30:47.839 --> 00:30:51.420
That brings us down to 2K. Zaccheaus, we can still
435
00:30:51.440 --> 00:30:54.259
get in there, which isn't bad. And we have a
436
00:30:54.299 --> 00:30:58.210
couple other options. This one still works. Because we got
437
00:30:58.309 --> 00:31:01.630
Penix to London. And then Penix also getting points for
438
00:31:01.690 --> 00:31:04.420
passing the Bijon. And then on the other side, we
439
00:31:04.460 --> 00:31:12.059
got Juwan Johnson and Carlson. We want to take out Carlson.
440
00:31:12.079 --> 00:31:17.380
Let's find the cheapest guy that we would be comfortable with.
441
00:31:18.619 --> 00:31:21.529
It's probably Zaccheaus. Let's get Zaccheaus. And that leaves us
442
00:31:21.609 --> 00:31:26.890
with 4,800. And so, yeah, I mean, Carlson. Let's see.
443
00:31:27.720 --> 00:31:30.700
Last one, you know, maybe we'll do an Olave lineup.
444
00:31:33.220 --> 00:31:36.960
So we go to Olave. And if we have Olave,
445
00:31:37.000 --> 00:31:41.059
we probably want Shuck in there. And we probably want Bijan.
446
00:31:44.079 --> 00:31:47.759
Because the Saints are giving up 28.2 DraftKings points to
447
00:31:47.799 --> 00:31:54.339
the running back position. So... If we got Shuck in there,
448
00:31:54.380 --> 00:31:57.380
let's give him another receiver. So let's give him Johnson
449
00:31:57.400 --> 00:32:00.359
since he's cheaper than Vele. And let's get Pitts in
450
00:32:00.400 --> 00:32:07.579
there too, if we can. So let's take, you know,
451
00:32:07.599 --> 00:32:21.049
let's take, let's take Johnson out. This is with 3,300
452
00:32:21.049 --> 00:32:26.099
per guy. So we could put in Dotson. Leaves us
453
00:32:26.119 --> 00:32:29.079
with 36. We could put in the Falcons D or
454
00:32:29.140 --> 00:32:33.200
something or Austin Hooper. Gives us a few options. We're
455
00:32:33.220 --> 00:32:35.079
going to have to do some more thinking through this
456
00:32:35.160 --> 00:32:38.799
one because this is a tricky one. I think Kyle
457
00:32:38.880 --> 00:32:46.480
Pitts might be my favorite captain though. Just because of
458
00:32:46.539 --> 00:32:48.920
all those signals and he's going to make it the
459
00:32:49.099 --> 00:32:51.309
easiest for us to try to jam in some of
460
00:32:51.329 --> 00:33:00.660
these guys. So we got Bijan, Olave. We got Penix.
461
00:33:01.720 --> 00:33:07.119
And then let's get Johnson in there too. Leaves us
462
00:33:07.220 --> 00:33:13.450
with 2,300. Zaccheaus. It gives us options here. We could
463
00:33:14.670 --> 00:33:18.539
always take out Penix and put in Shuck too. And,
464
00:33:18.740 --> 00:33:22.079
you know, just having a different quarterback for the captain
465
00:33:22.119 --> 00:33:25.309
can sometimes differentiate you pretty good. And then we have
466
00:33:25.329 --> 00:33:28.470
him passing to Johnson and Olave down here anyways. At
467
00:33:28.490 --> 00:33:32.250
least it's with 1700. And, you know, that puts us in,
468
00:33:32.509 --> 00:33:36.490
you know, kind of a no man's land as far
469
00:33:36.529 --> 00:33:38.970
as our options are there. So we probably have to take,
470
00:33:38.990 --> 00:33:42.410
you know, if you went this direction, we probably have
471
00:33:42.450 --> 00:33:49.259
to take like Olave out. And if we took Olave out,
472
00:33:51.460 --> 00:33:54.740
we could put in Penix and go double quarterback. That
473
00:33:54.779 --> 00:33:58.140
leaves us with 3,500. And then we got Dotson, like,
474
00:33:58.180 --> 00:34:00.500
as an option or something like that. So, you know,
475
00:34:00.519 --> 00:34:02.480
a couple different ways we can go. I think it's
476
00:34:02.500 --> 00:34:05.059
going to take a little bit more playing around to
477
00:34:05.099 --> 00:34:08.900
get a better feel for building these lineups. But, you know,
478
00:34:09.019 --> 00:34:12.260
like I said, make sure to sign up over at sportnuggets.com.
479
00:34:13.449 --> 00:34:15.289
For when I put out, you know, like the free article,
480
00:34:15.349 --> 00:34:18.019
if you guys hit 150 likes– I'll put out the
481
00:34:18.079 --> 00:34:21.159
article for free. You can get that over at sportnuggets.com
482
00:34:21.199 --> 00:34:25.329
in that article section I showed you. Or subscribe to
483
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the channel. Give me the 3,000 subscribers. I'm going to
484
00:34:27.929 --> 00:34:30.989
put my core plays in the comments section if you
485
00:34:31.030 --> 00:34:34.210
guys hit it. I only need about 50 left. So
486
00:34:34.269 --> 00:34:37.059
last week alone on this Monday show, we got 50.
487
00:34:37.059 --> 00:34:40.920
So let's do it again, guys. Give me the 3,000,
488
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and I will see you next week or on Thursday.
