00:00:09
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of Snake's Territory, part of the Fouls Territory Network. Be sure to like this video, subscribe to our YouTube channel, maybe leave us a five star review wherever you get your podcasts. I am Jesse Friedman alongside Jack Summers and Jack This was not great for the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have lost a series. First time they've lost a series in quite some time. I believe they had either one or split ten consecutive series. This time they're back in the lost column and it comes against no other team than the Colorado Rockies. Not not a great homestand for this Diamondbacks team.
00:00:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just stunning that they would lose a homestand to the Rockies.
00:00:53
Speaker 3: Obviously.
00:00:54
Speaker 2: I tried to take a glass half full approach in viewing this the night before, thinking well, okay, it's one game, it happens. But the way today's game went down, the way they lost it was probably one of the most painful losses for just about any Diamondbacks fan to watch, most aggravating. And you can pretty much sense too that Tory felt the same way in his postgame comments. I mean, he was really grinding through his presser.
00:01:26
Speaker 1: We'll get to the offense here in a second. Certainly the offense was a big part of the storyline that Diamondbacks had their opportunities in this game, for sure. But let's start with Merrill Kelly. Five innings from him, six hits, six runs, three walks, two strikeouts. He gave up a couple of very costly home runs, the biggest one coming in at the top of the second inning. D Backs had just put a run on the board, taken a one nothing lead in the bottom of the first, and then Brett Sullivan after the Rockies already got a run on the board in that inning, Brett Sullivan comes out of nowhere and hits a three run home run off the right field foul pole with two outs, and suddenly the Diamondbacks were in a pretty big hole early on in this game. A couple of innings later, Zach vine who I will be honest, I have not thought about Zach Vien in quite some time. He was at one point a pretty big time Rockies prospect. Kind of disappeared here over the last several seasons, but he made his way back to the majors, and this was his first game back in twenty twenty six, he had a two run home run against Marrill Kelly in the fourth inning that gave the Rockies a six to one lead. And yes, the Diamondbacks had their chances. Jack, We'll get to the offense in a moment, but Mary Kelly just has been inconsistent this season. I know there's been more good than bad recently, and I think we should keep that in mind. But this was a really rough one against a subpar offense in Colorado.
00:02:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's funny.
00:02:55
Speaker 2: Just as that second inning started, I saw a couple of Armside misses in one of the earlier at bats in the inning, and I'm like, not this again, you know, And I get when I start seeing just you know, armside misses, and he kind of gives like a little disgusted kick sideways when he when he knows he let it out there, And just right away, I'm like, he's gonna have.
00:03:17
Speaker 3: A tough game here. I can just tell you know that the.
00:03:21
Speaker 2: Home run of Sullivan, I mean, you know, he had gotten two outs, he had put two on, had gotten two outs.
00:03:26
Speaker 3: One was a line out.
00:03:27
Speaker 2: To Perdomo, and then he falls behind three and one and just like oh boy. And sure enough he just puts one in the left hand batter's happy zone down and in and Sullivan, you know, golfed it up off the foul hole. Just you know, the win expectancy for that was a twenty six percent change in that one swing right heading.
00:03:50
Speaker 3: You know, before he hit that home run, it.
00:03:52
Speaker 2: Was basically a fifty to fifty game, fifty point win percentage for the Diamondbacks. That one swing dropped him to twenty four point six percent. That was the single biggest event of the game when it comes to win probability.
00:04:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was. It was a big blow, no doubt. And unfortunately for Meryl, home runs have been a pretty big issue for him. He's now one point eight home runs per nine for the season, twenty five homers allowed in one hundred and twenty five innings. That's a that's a really big number when you look at you know, recent seasons for him. Last year, in one hundred and eighty four innings, Merril allowed twenty three home runs. So he's already above that here in twenty twenty six. And I think with Meryl Jack we've been We've been telling ourselves for a while, like, okay, even though he's not striking out a ton of guys, even though he's still walking a few more than you'd like, He's starting to get some softer contact. He's starting to get at least good results, even though he hasn't been pitching super deep into games unfortunately. Just as kind of an objective, I think if you, if you kind of separate yourself from what Meryl has meant to this organization the past few years, the reality is, I don't think anyone is looking at his numbers this season and seeing a pitcher that you really want pitching for you in a Pennant chase, right, I mean, the numbers just kind of are what they are. I mean, he has a five to eleven ERA, he has a five point seven to one FIP, he has a four point nine to eight x FIP. His expected ERA, I think is still well over six. That number has been way up there the whole season, and so I still don't really know what the solution is here. I know his VLO was down a little bit in this one, and maybe that was a factor. Yeah, I was a tick and a half. It was kind of it was kind of a lot. But still, I mean, you look at his stuff, you know, the movement the VLO for the entire season, it's not that different from a year ago. And I just keep going back to the zone rate, Like what percentage of Merrill Kelly's pitches is he throwing in the zone in this game? It was thirty nine percent, And that's just it's just way too low. And even as Kelly has gotten better results here in recent games, most of these games he's still he still just hasn't been throwing enough strikes. He's gotten away with it at times, but not in this game against the Rockies.
00:06:15
Speaker 2: Well, you know the Rockies broadcast. I mean I'm paraphrasing a little bit here, but essentially, you know, there was a comment Merrill just doesn't have the stuff.
00:06:24
Speaker 3: Anymore to do what he used to do.
00:06:26
Speaker 2: So he nibbles a lot, and if you're patient, you're going to get something to hit. And I think that, you know, that's part of it. I mean, obviously he's trying to nibble a lot of times. Those nibbles are actually not even very competitive pitches. But you know, if the hitters are patient, they're getting something to hit and they're doing a lot of damage on it. I know that the metrics and the things that we look at numerically probably tell us that the stuff isn't that much different. But the hitters are telling us the stuff is different. It's not as good hitters. Hitters are telling this by the swings that you're taking and the damage that you're doing.
00:07:07
Speaker 1: That's fair. I mean, I'm not here to say that, you know, the movement numbers and the vlow that we can see like that's the end all be all there. There certainly could be something more going on. I just keep going back to like, well, there's a big difference between a two to one count and a one to two count, you know, or three to one in two, and Merrill just keeps winding up on the wrong side of that over and over again. I think that can really have an outsized impact for you know, a picture of his type switching gears to the offense. The Diamondbacks set up plenty of chances to pick up Meryl in this one. Unfortunately, they they they made a comeback, they made it a little interesting, but they weren't able to come all the way back. They did score a run in the bottom half of the fifth inning that came on a Gabby Moreno RBI double. Corbyn Carroll hit a home run late as well. That was this one hundredth of his career, which was pretty cool to see. Man, it felt like the Diamondbacks had the bases loaded just about every inning, Jack and you know, they were able to get a run across here or there, but it just was not nearly enough. They wind up leaving fifteen on base in this game.
00:08:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, in the fifth inning when Gabby had that RBI double, he gets it done there. Paedomo, by the way, made a really nice hustle tag to get himself into scoring position on that. But you know, Nolan taps out with the bases loaded with a week round out to short in the sixth inning, you know, with two outs, Corbyn Walks just missed a three run homer.
00:08:35
Speaker 3: It hit went over the bullpen. You know, Gaby gets called.
00:08:39
Speaker 2: Looking on the chat that at bat, I mean, he gets called out, you know, looking on a pitch that was challenged for the strikeout. And prior to that, Gabby had a challenge twice just to stay in the bat. The home played umpire missed by multiple inches twice, and that at bat to Gabby pitches way above the zone, like not even close. The guy had a bad day. There were numerous other situations, you know, But then you go like bases loaded, nobody out in the seventh Kepler pops out, Vargas, Pinch hits for Tower and he walks in a run. And then this was the next biggest The second biggest swing of the game was Waldy's five four to three double play. That was the second biggest WPA the game. That was worth negative twenty percent to the win percentage. They had actually gotten back to within striking distance twenty seven point four percent. I mean, you know, it's a six three ball game. One out, bases loaded, seventh inning, you know, you get something done there and now you're you're getting back close to fifty percent. Instead he hits into the double play, the win expectancy drops twenty percent and down to seven point one percent, and that essentially, you know, pop back up a little bit, like you said when Corbyn homered.
00:09:52
Speaker 3: The other thing is, you know.
00:09:53
Speaker 2: Nolan did not have a good game, you know, and it needs to be said. If you look at the average leverage index or the player leverage index, Nolan's index is the highest amongst the qualified batters on the team. In other words, he's actually had the most high leverage key situations and he's got a negative DPA WPA of minus one, maybe even a little higher than that after today's game, So you know, I mean, Dolan's come through with some big hits, but at the same time, the full season one hundred and twenty games numbers, when you add them all up, he's actually fairly negative. I mean, he's got the largest negative WPA amongst the starteus that have qualified that are qualified for the batting title.
00:10:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think overall, like Nolan is still it's hard to be upset with what he's given the Diamondbacks this season. He's probably going to hit twenty home runs, but it is a good point that the context and the timing of those hits does matter, and there have been some big ones there, but there have also been a lot of situations like what we saw in this game, where he's just not able to come through in one of those key moments. Unfortunately, Jack, the San Diego Padres just continue to win. They beat the Milwaukee Brewers in eleven innings today, found a way to score two runs in the bottom half of the eleventh inning, to walk it off. So this is where the standings sit right now. The Padres now have sole possession of the second wild card spot there at sixty five and fifty seven. The Phillies lost again. They're not exactly cruising right now. They lost seven to one to Saint Louis today, So the Phillies and Diamondbacks are now tied for that third wildcard spot at sixty four and fifty eight. Dbacs technically have the tiebreaker there. I guess that's something we should keep an eye on. They took two out of three from Philadelphia earlier in the season. There's another series between those two teams here in a couple of weeks. The Marlins have crept back up in this thing. They're only a game and a half out. The Cardinals are two and a half games. Really nice series from them against Philly, and then the Nationals, Reds, and Pirates all between five and six games out here as we record on Wednesday nights. So the Diamondbacks playoff odds have effectively been a coin flip for a while now. They've been a little over fifty percent. Now they're a little under fifty percent depending on where you look. Fangrafts has them at forty two point eight right now. But unfortunately, we've reached the point, Jack where I think the projection systems are going to favor the Padres and the Phillies over this Diamondbacks team. They're now inarguably the worst position out of those three teams.
00:12:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's because they have an offense that just does not project on paper to be able to get the job done at this point. Even though Katel and Corbyn are clearly starting to turn it around, there's just not enough support there, yeah, you know, and it's just showing up in game after game, like, Okay, we have a nice little stretch there where the bottom of the line was doing really well and Corbyn and Catel weren't hitting. Now those guys are starting to turn it on and the bottom of the order is starting to look like the role players that they are. And you know, unfortunately Lars Newbar has not come in and had any positive impact yet. I don't know if from when he will, you know, I mean, he really has struggled a lot since coming back from He did have a good June, but other than that, he's struggled for you know, better part of two years now, and we know well that he went through a really tough time with a surgery. But you know, that guy's got to start doing something. He's gonna start contributing otherwise it's really going to be a very tough look for my kasm.
00:13:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no getting around that. The Diamondbacks only made one move at the trade deadline and it was to go get Lar's new bar. So still a lot of time left. He's only played. You know, we're still about a week or so of games at this point from him. Lots of time to turn things around. But I guess not a disaster of a Homestand for the Dbacks, when you look all the way back, you know, they split the series with San Diego, they take two out of three from LA and then they come right back and lose two out of three to Colorado. I guess if those outcomes had been swapped, like maybe everyone's just like, well, yeah, you're probably gonna lose two out of three to the Dodgers and winning two out of three to the Rockies is totally fine, and maybe there's not so much negativity right now. But losing to this Rockies team at home, especially while the San Diego Padres go out and sweep the Brewers, who came into that series with the best record in baseball. The optics are just not great right now. Well, this is a mail bag episode and we are excited to dive into all of your mail bag questions. So with that said, don't go anywhere. We'll be back right after this here on Snake's territory.
00:14:58
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00:15:09
Speaker 5: Krats, Well, I have it on right now and I'm all about quality. But you know what, you know how good your clothes are when you're a parent and your kids keep stealing all of it. My daughter stole the sweatshirt, my son sole one of my t shirts. So it's got to be nice looking.
00:15:27
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00:15:58
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Snake's Territory. Thank you all for being here. We really appreciate your time. If you haven't already, it really helps us out if you would drop a like on this video while you're at it, subscribe to the channel, hit the bell icon for notifications so you never miss an episode of the show. Maybe get a cool hat like the one that Jack is wearing or a cool T shirt like the one that I am wearing. You can get those over at Snake's territoryshop dot com. And finally, for joining us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, it also really helps us out if you would leave us a five star review. With that, we're gonna go ahead and jump on into the mailbag, one of our favorite things to do here on Snake's Territory. Our first question comes from y e roc three one zero three over on Reddit. They say, how would you rate Tory's performance so far this season? If we miss the playoffs by a game or two. Has he done enough with this group to justify renewing his contract? Jack, what do you think?
00:16:57
Speaker 2: I think very much that he must make the playoffs in order to be brought back, and maybe even just winning a while, you know, getting to the wildcard and losing two games out of three in the wild card or something that might precipitate him not being brought back as well. I think they need to make the playoffs and maybe even need to win their first round for him to be able to continue as the manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks. As far as assessing the job he's doing this year, it's so hard. I mean, look, I get a little tired of all the Tory arguments and Tory debates because most of it's just simply coming from frustration, you know, and the off site. Well, they're not making the playoffs and you haven't made playoffs in ten years, and you know, look, you work with what you have, and every time you point out that a lot of times he hasn't had the best rosters and oftentimes had lousy bullpens, it's like, oh, you're a Tori apologist, and you know it's like I'm not for ready, it's so tired.
00:17:58
Speaker 3: But what I want I want, I want to look at this subjectively real quick.
00:18:03
Speaker 2: I often like to look at the fangrafs, Pythogoreean and base runs standings versus actual And now that doesn't mean if there's a big difference there, it's necessarily the manager that's all responsible for that. But that's where maybe you can tease out, like some of that difference is going to be perhaps due to what's.
00:18:28
Speaker 3: Going on from the dugout.
00:18:31
Speaker 2: So coming into today, the Diamondbacks were sixty four and fifty seven, and their Python Gaorean one loss, which is based on runs scored and runs allowed, was sixty two and fifty nine, So there were two games better than there in their actual then versus their pythagoreeon. The other number to look at is the base runs, which is base runs is what you do as far as without sequencing, So it's all of the events. It's all of the hits, walks, homers, strikeouts, everything that happens, but ignoring sequencing, ignoring clutch, ignoring runners in scoring position, it's how many runs you should have scored based on these events, and on that metric they're sixty and sixty one, So in other words, they've been four games better than their base runs. You can find all this that fangrafs under their standings tab. So what does that mean? Basically, the Diamondbacks actual one loss record has outperformed they're expected one loss based on runs scored and runs allowed, and it's all. They've also exceeded their one loss based on expected runs. So most of that is luck or sequencing or just you know, the way the ball's bouncing. But if there's any room in there to try to tease out, some of that may be due to the manager and how he's managed things and how him and his coaching staff have managed the players.
00:20:05
Speaker 3: So you can say that the team is.
00:20:07
Speaker 2: Slightly overperforming what they should have gotten wins wise. Now it's a double edged sword because I'm talking about twenty twenty six. If you go back to previous years, Tory would more frequently be on the negative side of this ledger.
00:20:24
Speaker 1: That's all really good stuff. I don't have a whole lot to add other than to just say I think it's funny that I want to say. It was two days ago there was Twitter discourse about whether Tory could win Manager of the Year. You know, like, I think there is a valid case that some people are making and now we're like, yeah, you know, I'm sure that's how people feel right now. After losing these last two games to the Rocky is like, yeah, it's time to move on from this guy, right, So it feels like the narrative here changes every couple of days. I agree with you that, Hey, yeah, what were you going to say?
00:20:56
Speaker 2: Who's the narrative? I mean, forget Twitter, right, it's all nonsense.
00:21:00
Speaker 1: I live on I care about.
00:21:05
Speaker 2: Every time they lose two games. It's the same fifty people that's retweeting over and over and over and over and over and over and over about fire.
00:21:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. I don't think it.
00:21:17
Speaker 2: Just brings nothing to the discourse. I mean, I'm not saying that there isn't a good evaluation exercise that needs to be done here in evaluating Tory Leavello. And that's exactly what the front office is doing and what ownership is doing. And they're the ones that make the decisions, you know. And all I've ever tried to do is like bring more light to situations that people may not often understand or not have not even understand, just not have all the information. Yeah, you know, why didn't he bring in his picture? Well, my picture has got an ice pack on his arm and he.
00:21:50
Speaker 3: Can't pitch today. You know, things like that.
00:21:52
Speaker 2: It's just that that stuff happens all the time, where people go off on things that they think they know and understand, and then when you try to give him the information and fill in the blanks that they don't have, they go off on you about being a Tory apologist. It's like, whatever, it's a boring conversation.
00:22:11
Speaker 1: That's so fun, so much fun. Yeah, I mean, I'm in agreement that I think the Dbacks definitely have to make the playoffs for Toy to keep his job. Is that fair? I don't know for sure. I don't think this roster is awesome on paper, the fact that Dbacks are in this position, as you outlined, like, I think there's a pretty strong case we made the Toy's done pretty good with what he's had. On the other hand, he's been here for a while and this is just kind of the way the game is played. Like when your team doesn't make the playoffs for a few years, justified or not, someone's gonna lose their job, and for the Diamondbacks, it probably would be Tory Leavello if they're not able to get in. So a fun conversation that we'll just leave right there for right now. Our next next question comes from Colton Walker, who said, if you had to say your playoff rotation for the wild Card Series right now, who would it be? This is fascinating, Jack, What do you think?
00:23:10
Speaker 2: It's pretty easy for me as of right now this moment. I mean it would be e Rod and fought one or two, just depending on how they lined up and whose turn it was. You know, they're going to be fighting all the way down to the last weekend of the season to try to make the playoffs, so it really just depends who's available. And Michael Soroka, I mean, those are the three guys that I would use. I would line those three guys up the best I could.
00:23:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm right there with you. It's those three. I guess if you got to an NLCS somehow or or the World Series, you needed a four starting pitcher. I mean, I think as you you'd pick Mitch brad over Merrill Kelly. If you're like going ulter recency bias, I imagine the Diamondbacks would would lean more toward Meryl Kelly given his history in the postseason, but maybe Corbin Earns is in the picture at that point. The dbacs could have some other options there as well. But yeah, the top three is pretty clear. E Rod Soroka fought in in some order. I think is pretty much the clear the clear move there. Our next question comes from simply underscore. Leo Over on Reddit says, when Lawler comes back, who do we DFA? Does Max Kepler go by at that point? Yeah, I think that this is an interesting decision the d Backs are going to have to make really soon, maybe like tomorrow to Jordan Lawler hit another home run for Amarillo today on Wednesday, back to back days with a home run for Lawler there, so he very well could join the Diamondbacks this weekend. You what do you think, Jack Well?
00:24:49
Speaker 2: I mean, if they option a guy, they'll option Tyler Locklear because he's hardly playing, and so the guy that they'll send out is likely to be the guy that they hardly use. If the DFA or player, it would be Kepler. We've been saying for a week now, the guy's better start producing. He actually did start producing. A bit today. I think, you know, he maybe is turning it around, but we still need to see some pop out of him. But if they're going to DFA anybody, I think they'll DFA him before the DFA Horny Porosa.
00:25:21
Speaker 3: It's my opinion.
00:25:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I mean, Kepler is on the roster to do one thing right. It's to hit right handed pitching. And he did have a decent game today, two for four with a walk, his first good game in quite a while. It feels like, so I think you want to see him get on a run. Tyler Locklear did have a pinch hit single in what it felt like a meaningful spot. He has an eight forty six ops, so it would be kind of a bummer for him to get sent down. But based on his usage, as you said, like that's kind of a leading indicator there, it seems like it seems like they would they would be more likely to option lockleyer at this juncture than to dfa Max Kepp, especially after Kepler just reached base three times. Like that wouldn't the timing there wouldn't feel right to pull the trigger in that regard.
00:26:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, we're just I don't even know what's right at this point. I mean, they're all role players. It's not like removing any one of them from the roster is going to be this massive change.
00:26:20
Speaker 3: You know.
00:26:20
Speaker 2: The main thing is is what's going to get Jordan Laller the most playing time? And how well is he what is he going to do with it? Yeah, that's really the main thing that matters. We're just trying to handicap what the team is going to do. I'm not invested one way or the other there.
00:26:37
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from officer doot Over on Reddit. Is there a world in which Lattel joins the rotation and replaces Mitch Bratt. I feel like we will see Lttel do a lot better here than Washington because our defense is very good, whereas Washington has some of the worst defensive stats in the league. It's a fair point point Diamondbacks definitely an upgrade in that regard. I don't know Jack, as long as Mitch Brod is pitching like he has lost a couple of times out, it's to Littel might have to sort of wait his turn here.
00:27:12
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:27:12
Speaker 2: I mean my guess is that at some point Lettel we'll get some spot starts. And get an opportunity to see what he can do. You know, if Bratt falters two or three starts in a row, or even Meryl, if he keeps doing what he's doing, if he continues to lose velocity, I mean, you know, God forbid, I hope he doesn't end up on the I L again, because if he does, there's probably not going to be enough time to get him ramp back up to help in the postseason. So you know, we'll see what happens there. I'm sorry, I'm just being a little bit alarmist. That mile and a half off on the four seam fastball for Meryll, two miles off on the cutter, even a mile, you know, losing a tick one point three I think on the change.
00:27:51
Speaker 3: Up, that's a red flag, you know.
00:27:54
Speaker 2: I mean, nobody's going to admit it openly initially, but you look at the start before he had cramping issues. So you know, Latel's probably going to get a chance here at some point. We just don't know who he's going to get a chance to replace.
00:28:08
Speaker 1: I'm just picturing a scenario where the d Backs they've got to throw all their best pitchers, you know, in order to just get into the playoffs and then you wind up with a game one wild Card series and Zach Lttel is on the mound. It would be very funny if that's how things turned out. But hey, you pitched great the other day in long relief and you're coming off two pretty good seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays, so you never know what Lttel might be capable of. Well, one more question here before we get to a break. It's from our good pal Jeff Irving, who says this team struggles versus right handed pitching maybe the biggest achilles heel of the roster. In my opinion. The bats we have coming back are right handed. Updated thoughts on any of the lefty bats and the miners coming up and making an impact later in the season. We were talking about this last night. Jack Manny Pania in Triple A. His numbers don't really jump out at you at this point. Be a little surprising to see him get a call up in the final month or so of the season. Not impossible if he were to rattle off a couple of really good weeks, but his ops right now in Triple A is seven to twenty four, So I think you'd be also forty nine strikeouts to nine walks, a bit of a rough ratio there. Gavin Connacello has has put up some pretty good numbers since being promoted to Triple A. Twenty three year old third baseman who does bat left handed. In nineteen games in Triple A, he's hitting three twenty three with a nine to sixty six ops eighteen strikeouts to seven walks. Out of the few left handed hitters at that level, he might have the best shot of anyone to get a chance at some point here.
00:29:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, he only had a ninety seven WRC plus and three hundred and eleven played appearances in Double A, and now he's at seventy four PLA light appearances, he's got a one to twenty eight WRC plus, so for the year.
00:30:04
Speaker 3: He's at one oh three.
00:30:05
Speaker 2: He's on a nice run in Reno, you know, And it's a little odd to see him, I guess, you know, it depends on the pitching that you're facing and all of that. You know, he goes up a level but hits better even relative to the league and park adjusted and all of that. I didn't get a chance to look up his Well, maybe it's sitting there.
00:30:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, his x wOBA in Triple A is three forty one. Okay, pretty good compare that.
00:30:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that that even even for you know, three forty one is a pretty good ex wOBA and his ex wOBA for the season. Yes, there is still three forty one because they only have Triple A numbers, so that's a good number. It's a small sample size, right, so you know, I don't know if the team is going to buy in on that, but maybe he's a September crawl up, and you know, maybe they bring him up a day or two before September one if they really feel like they need another left handed bat. But I don't think they're just gonna jump straight to a twenty three year old with less than one hundred played appearances in Triple A. I just don't think they'll do that. But it'd be interesting if they did, be kind of fun.
00:31:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it seems like if God forbid an injury happened to one of the starting infielders or something, that's where maybe something like that, maybe the d Backs just kind of feel forced to pull the trigger on something like that. I will mention that Peven Smith and Adrian del Castillo are also both in triple A. I don't know if those are the names that people are exactly thinking of here, and I think both guys would have to get pretty hot in order to get another shot, but certainly not impossible that that that could happen. Well, we have a couple more mail bag questions. They are both very fun, so we hope, we hope you stick around. But for right now, we're going to go ahead and talk about a big game the d Backs are playing this weekend in Atlanta. In this on deck presented by Fox One's segment, we're talking about Saturday's game, which is on Fox You of course could find it with Fox one Diamondbacks taking on the Braves on National TV this Saturday. Jack that game, I'm trying to remember who is on the bump for the Diamondbacks in that one. I want to say, it's Sieduardo Rodriguez.
00:32:26
Speaker 3: Now you got me, I gotta look it up.
00:32:28
Speaker 1: You know, I have a graphic that has it right here there.
00:32:31
Speaker 3: It is.
00:32:31
Speaker 1: It's Erod against Grant Holmes as the pitching matchup in that Saturday game. Grant Holmes, who were looking at his underlying stats, his FIP is pretty close to five on the season, but his surface level numbers are pretty good. He's a right handed pitcher, and of course that is scary in and of itself. He has a three four seven ERA on the season in one hundred and fourteen innings. E Rod Jack, you have to feel pretty good about him anytime he's on the mound at this point.
00:33:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, talk about the surprise of the year. Just having a daughter. Rodriguez be our security blanket. But it's just just no denying how well he's pitched and the pitchability there, and he's just squeezing every last inch out of his stuff by you know, being a crafty veteran. He's mixing his pitches, locating there, you know every once in a while. I mean, out of his last six starts as two clunkers in there and four really good ones. You know, he's not reeling off ten straight without a bump in the road.
00:33:32
Speaker 3: But he was great his last time out, and of.
00:33:34
Speaker 2: Course he threw that one hundred and fifteen pitch seven inning effort to save the bullpen. It's nice that he's getting an extra there's a day off in between, and now he's getting the extra day day's rest. I think that'll help him, especially because.
00:33:47
Speaker 3: It can be a little steamy down there in Hotlanta.
00:33:51
Speaker 1: That is very true, glam Glad. I am not spending my summer out there. In the Colorado series, one thing I will make offensively for the d Backs Corbyn. Carroll was very good in that series overall. He went four four eleven. He hit his one hundredth career home run. As we mentioned, he also had two triples, just the one triple one triple one double in addition to the two home runs. So a really good series for Corbyn overall. A lot of that happening against right handed pitching. I know the home run today was against the lefty, but he's a really big part of this offense against Ryde's and with someone like Grant Holmes on the mound on Saturday, you're you're hoping to see more of this from Corbyn as he kind of starts to turn things around here Jack and maybe look a little more like himself.
00:34:42
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:34:42
Speaker 2: Well, as you know we've said, I mean, the d Backs are only going to go as far as the stars can take them. They have to you know, carry the load, and you know, both him and Katel have started to turn it around here, so you know, hopefully that carries over and they just get a little bit more support. Tough Braves have a great pitching staff. You know, they have excellent bullpen. I mean basically the best bullpen in majors. So you're gonna have to get to their starters early because it's a lot of six inning games in Atlanta.
00:35:13
Speaker 1: Well, MLB on Fox is streaming on Fox one. The Race to October starts now, and we have your front row seat to the wildest walkoffs, lights out pitching, and clutch plays all season long. Follow every can't miss matchup as teams battle for a spot in the postseason. Then stream the twenty twenty six World Series live on Fox one at home or on the go live or on demand, never miss a moment. Stream now, Well, Jack, we have two more mail back questions to go, and these ones are both very fun. This one comes from Rebel King twenty twenty three, who says, fun question time for both Jesse and Jack. If you could somehow add one former diamondback in their prime to the team right now, whether it's at a playoff run, who would it be and why? I went back and forth and back and forth on this, But Jack, I'm gonna give you the first shot at this one. Who who do you got?
00:36:12
Speaker 3: I am?
00:36:13
Speaker 2: You know we by the way, we did not share our answers with each other, but I know we're thinking exactly the same thing. Do you want a left handed hitter or do you want a first basement?
00:36:24
Speaker 3: Oh?
00:36:24
Speaker 1: So you're giving me the option. Am I supposed to pick?
00:36:27
Speaker 2: Well? I mean in my mind, like you know, I'm it's like, what do I need more? Do I need a left handed bat or do I need a first basement? Yeah, it's one of those two. Now, if it's a left handed bat, we know who it is. And if it's a first basement, we know who it is. Yeahsalas, Louis Gonzales or.
00:36:50
Speaker 3: Paul Goldschmidt.
00:36:51
Speaker 2: And if I got to pick one, I'm gonna go Louis Gonzalez because his peak season two thousand and one was the most impact.
00:37:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is very compelling. I was I was thinking a two thousand and one Gonzo as well. He had an eleven fifty one ops against right handed pitching that year, forty two home runs just against righty's one hundred RBI. That'll certainly play and would be very nice in the middle of this Diamondbacks lineup. I also was kind of tripped up on the positional thing, like, oh, but a first baseman would like really fit the roster better, So maybe you just take like twenty fifteen Paul Goldschmidt, he had a one to fifty six WRC plus against righty's that year, Like, that'll work as well. But the other name that I was fumbling around and trying to figure this out what was causing me some pause was I was also like, maybe you just want Randy Johnson because he's Randy Johnson, And like, who cares how many runs you score if you can have Randy Johnson pitching for you, right.
00:37:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, But I just think of the twenty fourteen they had Randy Johnson pitching at a say young level, and he only went sixteen and fourteen because the team couldn't hit, So you still need runs.
00:38:09
Speaker 1: That's true. I like to think that this Diamondbacks offense is a little more confident than the two thousand and four offense that was a little rough. But yeah, it's a fair point. It's a fair point. Gonzo was my number one option with Goldie and Randy Johnson, We're both kind of in the mix. For me, this question does have a part two. The bonus question here is if you could magically add anyone in the league currently to the team besides Shoho Tani, that would just be cheating while taking into consideration current health. Who would you add? Jack? I'm not sure there's a right answer to this, but I kind of think there's a right answer to this. Did you also say Houston Astro's designated hitter, your Don Alvarez?
00:38:54
Speaker 3: Yes, of course, of course, Okay, I don't know.
00:38:58
Speaker 2: I think a triple crown winner my kind of also with this offense.
00:39:03
Speaker 1: I just went to fangrafts and and did the split leader board thing and just did verse right handed pitching and then just sorted by ops or whatever, and yord On Alvarez is like way better than anyone else, so it felt felt pretty pretty easy. He has a two to ten WRC plus against righty's this season and eleven forty ops. So yeah, jord On Alvarez would be a pretty big addition in that regard. Do you want to know who is twelfth on that list?
00:39:31
Speaker 5: Jack?
00:39:32
Speaker 1: WRC plus against righty's this season, so familiar, it's a familiar name. Blaize Alexander of the bal Baltimore Orioles is twelve.
00:39:42
Speaker 3: What's your PA criteria?
00:39:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not much, he was. I think it's one hundred and fifty, about one hundred and fifty played appearances. So plays Alexander not a qualified hitter this season. He's missed some time, I think so, Yeah, I think is back now. He has weird reverse splits this season where he's actually been much better against righty's and lefties. But yeah, it looks like he is back. Looks like he's four for six in his last two games entering today. So Blaze is still doing it out there in Baltimore. And uh yeah, d Backs can kind of use him. That's a that's a bit of a bummer. Anyway, our last question, let's go ahead and move on. Uh here's another fun one. If you could design one pitcher in a lab with five pitches from across the d Backs pitching staff, which five pitches would you use?
00:40:36
Speaker 2: I e.
00:40:37
Speaker 1: Merrill, Kelly's change up, Michael Sirokas slurve that sort of idea. Jack, I'll give you the the first the first shot at this one as well.
00:40:46
Speaker 2: All right, So I went with Ryan Nelson's four seen fastball, wa Mario's sinker, Herado Corrio's cutter. Oh, Brandon Garcia is sweet slide sweeper, and Andrew Hoffman's change up, And I did this kind of yeah.
00:41:07
Speaker 1: I didn't expected Andrew Hoffman mention. Okay, I know.
00:41:12
Speaker 2: Nothing else worked for him, and his fastball wasn't good enough, but his change up stuff plus is one hundred and fifteen. Brandon Garcia is sweeper, stuff plus is one forty three, Mario's sinker's one eighteen, and Ryan Nelson's fastball's won ten. So you know you got you got the high rise you know, high ivv Ryan Nelson fastball, and you got the Hoffman change up, and you can take care of lefties with those two right, you know, top shelf up and in with the four seemer boom, knock him out down and a way get the swing and miss from the change up. Think Eric Kangey back in the day, if you're that old, you know. And then against Righty's you got the sinker slider combination of Mario's sinker and Garcia's slider and growing a little cutter action there and right He's don't have a chance either. So that was my my five. I did look also at run values, but I don't know if your yours is kind of using run value, So I'll circle back to that once you're done.
00:42:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have I have kind of a mix of some run value stuff, some stuff plus numbers as well.
00:42:23
Speaker 2: Uh.
00:42:24
Speaker 1: Part of me was like, well, I'll take Justin Martinez his four seemer and Justin Martin sinker and Justin Martin.
00:42:32
Speaker 2: Wait, he's hasn't played yet this year.
00:42:37
Speaker 1: Did you see how Hardy was throwing in Reno just yesterday? Though, Jack, I feel like I'm allowed to do that. All right, I'll leave I'll leave jmar out Fron.
00:42:46
Speaker 3: You could have j You could have J mart If I.
00:42:50
Speaker 1: If I could have J mart then I don't know. His four seamer doesn't like it's all the velo is insane, right, I mean, it's one hundred and two miles an hour. Doesn't have crazy movement on that pitch necessarily, So even with J mart I maybe I would be torn between his for seamer and Juan Mario's for seamer. I think kuand Mario, certainly of the active players, has far and away the best four seam fastball on the roster. He's at a one oh nine stuff plus there. Honestly, not quite as high as I would have thought, but we've just seen like nobody can square up that pitch time and time again. It's been really, really effective for him, lots of ride, averaging around ninety nine miles per hour. So for leaving j Mart out, I'll go Juan Rio's four seamer. I also had Brandon Garcia's sweeper, or if we want to call it a slider. I guess if I'm calling that pitch a sweeper and I'm picking a true slider. Separately, I had Kevin Ginkle slider, which still grades out pretty dang well and has a whiff rate north of forty percent. I know he's left some in some bad spots at times this year, but the results against that pitch have still been very poor. It remains one of the best sliders that you'll find in a bullpen. I think the run value there is plus seven for the season, so pretty impressive stuff there. Juan Mario I have his change up as well. I think he probably has the best change up of any active player. And then I went to Michael Soroka's slurve. We got to have a slurve right, So I did throw Michael Soroka slurve in there. One ninety four opponent batting average on that pitch two sixty five x wOBA. All the indicators we have show that that has been very, very effective this season. Dbax don't really have anyone with like an awesome curveball, so I threw Brandon Fought in there. I know the run value isn't that high for some reason. I think maybe because he's not like great at spotting it for strikes. But the movement profile and his curveball is pretty good and guys don't tend to do much with it and it can generate some swing and miss. So Fought's curveball is maybe where I would I would lean for for a curveball if I was picking one.
00:45:06
Speaker 2: Okay, cool, you know, I just want to it's kind of funny. I want to circle back on the run value. So I I did the highest run value per one hundred pitches, because if you just add them all up, starters you know with a decent number is going to have a higher Like you know e robs On on any of these lists, but his fastball and changeup have the highest total run value on those two pitches, right, but if we go per one hundred pitches, okay, Uh, the slider was a Prado Correo five point one nine that was the highest, highest per one hundred pitches run value.
00:45:42
Speaker 1: I mean he think he's pitched like like ten innings, right.
00:45:45
Speaker 3: I know, I know, I'm just to say sinker sink.
00:45:51
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously in results, you know, the run value per one hundred is all about results, right, Sinker Taylor Clark tailor Clark sinkers generally four point sixty four runs per one hundred. The change up Mitch Bratt his change up rates three point eight nine per one hundred. Splitter his career again, Correa's got that splitter at three point sixty four curve.
00:46:18
Speaker 3: This one's gonna blow everyone away.
00:46:20
Speaker 2: Philip Abner three point three five, Wow cutter, Jonathan Loasaca three point three to one. And here's another one that's going to surprise people and not end here. Four Seeing fastball run value per one hundred pitches, Brandon fought one point eight six.
00:46:39
Speaker 1: I did see Brandon fought very very high up on the fastball run value, which is which is impressive because that was kind of his His big issue over the course of the first two three years of his career was his four seamer was just kind of getting hammered. We've seen him use the sinker a little bit more and the fur seemer this year has been very, very effective for him. So yeah, it's a fun exercise. I think it was cool to see how like doing this exercise now is a lot more interesting than it would have been three four years ago, even last year. I mean, there's just there's more guys with compelling stuff in this organization right now than we've seen in a while, at least close to the big leagues, and in the big leagues, like I could have been convinced take Harardo Correo on several of these Like if I can't have Justin Martinez a splitter, I'm probably taking Harado Correo splitter. I know that that showed up on your your run value list there. So yeah, the Diamondbacks have better stuff and and this bullpen, even though it has not been great here in recent days, it's a big reason why they've made it to this point, why why they're still in this race, and why they've still got a shot in this thing. With about a month and a half to go.
00:47:54
Speaker 2: They pitched four scoreless today, so yeah, I'm too bad. And they only gave up one run yesterday, so I mean the last two days they gave it one run.
00:48:03
Speaker 3: Not too chevy.
00:48:04
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, the run that was given up yesterday was the game winning run by Kevin Ginkle. There was one run in three innings and then no runs in for today, so you know, one in seven that's that's some pretty good work.
00:48:16
Speaker 3: That's maybe that extra rest.
00:48:18
Speaker 2: And you know, the Zach Lettel game was was a major factor and maybe helped getting them turned around. But I'm really happy about this question. It was a fun, fun question asked.
00:48:27
Speaker 3: It was great.
00:48:28
Speaker 2: I don't know if we gave all the right answers there, but look forward to seeing other people's thoughts on it in the comments.
00:48:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was very fun. Thank you to all of you who submitted questions for this mailbag episode. Sorry we couldn't get to everyone. There were quite a few, but keep them coming. We always really really enjoyed doing this. Diamondback speaking of getting a nice rest in the bullpen, they'll get a little more of that here Over the next twenty four hours. Dbacks have an off Day in Atlanta tomorrow, and then they start that three game series against the Braves on Friday. They will be opposed by Chris Sale in the first game of that series, and then Brandon Fott will pitch in that game. We already talked about e Rod and Grant Holmes on Saturday, and then it's Michael Soroka against Bryce Elder in the finale of that series. Hey, this is the playoff rotation, Jack, This is you fought e Rod and and Soroka line it up here against a pretty good team in Atlanta Diamondbacks. It feels like do not tend to play the Atlanta Braves particularly well, but they could really use a bounce back series here this weekend.
00:49:38
Speaker 2: And this is a pretty good preview. Like, is this team if they got to the playoffs, would be able to compete?
00:49:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. The pitching matchups could totally look like this in an actual playoff series.
00:49:53
Speaker 2: All right, Well, hopefully we'll get to see j mart and Jordan Lawler maybe this weekend, maybe Boston the latest, so it could be pretty exciting folks.
00:50:02
Speaker 1: There you go. And hey, Chris Sale is Chris Sale, but he's also a lefty, so you never know what you might get from this deepags offense on Friday Night. Thank you to all of you for being with us on this episode. We really appreciate your time. If you haven't already, you can find us on Twitter. I am at Jesse and Friedman. Jack is at sh Wizard fifty nine. Our show is at Snake's Territory, and of course you can find Jack's written work over at Arizona Diamondbacks on SI Jack. Any final thoughts here as we say goodbye.
00:50:33
Speaker 3: Another thing, I'm done.
00:50:36
Speaker 1: That last one. Just there's lots of run values and stuff, plus numbers and whatnot throw that we're all throwing out here. So appreciate all of you for keeping us busy, giving us lots of fun things to talk about it. We really appreciate it once again, and we'll be back with another episode here of Snake's Territory very very soon.
00:51:00
Speaker 3: S
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of Snake's Territory, part of the Fouls Territory Network. Be sure to like this video, subscribe to our YouTube channel, maybe leave us a five star review wherever you get your podcasts. I am Jesse Friedman alongside Jack Summers and Jack This was not great for the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have lost a series. First time they've lost a series in quite some time. I believe they had either one or split ten consecutive series. This time they're back in the lost column and it comes against no other team than the Colorado Rockies. Not not a great homestand for this Diamondbacks team.
00:00:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just stunning that they would lose a homestand to the Rockies.
00:00:53
Speaker 3: Obviously.
00:00:54
Speaker 2: I tried to take a glass half full approach in viewing this the night before, thinking well, okay, it's one game, it happens. But the way today's game went down, the way they lost it was probably one of the most painful losses for just about any Diamondbacks fan to watch, most aggravating. And you can pretty much sense too that Tory felt the same way in his postgame comments. I mean, he was really grinding through his presser.
00:01:26
Speaker 1: We'll get to the offense here in a second. Certainly the offense was a big part of the storyline that Diamondbacks had their opportunities in this game, for sure. But let's start with Merrill Kelly. Five innings from him, six hits, six runs, three walks, two strikeouts. He gave up a couple of very costly home runs, the biggest one coming in at the top of the second inning. D Backs had just put a run on the board, taken a one nothing lead in the bottom of the first, and then Brett Sullivan after the Rockies already got a run on the board in that inning, Brett Sullivan comes out of nowhere and hits a three run home run off the right field foul pole with two outs, and suddenly the Diamondbacks were in a pretty big hole early on in this game. A couple of innings later, Zach vine who I will be honest, I have not thought about Zach Vien in quite some time. He was at one point a pretty big time Rockies prospect. Kind of disappeared here over the last several seasons, but he made his way back to the majors, and this was his first game back in twenty twenty six, he had a two run home run against Marrill Kelly in the fourth inning that gave the Rockies a six to one lead. And yes, the Diamondbacks had their chances. Jack, We'll get to the offense in a moment, but Mary Kelly just has been inconsistent this season. I know there's been more good than bad recently, and I think we should keep that in mind. But this was a really rough one against a subpar offense in Colorado.
00:02:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's funny.
00:02:55
Speaker 2: Just as that second inning started, I saw a couple of Armside misses in one of the earlier at bats in the inning, and I'm like, not this again, you know, And I get when I start seeing just you know, armside misses, and he kind of gives like a little disgusted kick sideways when he when he knows he let it out there, And just right away, I'm like, he's gonna have.
00:03:17
Speaker 3: A tough game here. I can just tell you know that the.
00:03:21
Speaker 2: Home run of Sullivan, I mean, you know, he had gotten two outs, he had put two on, had gotten two outs.
00:03:26
Speaker 3: One was a line out.
00:03:27
Speaker 2: To Perdomo, and then he falls behind three and one and just like oh boy. And sure enough he just puts one in the left hand batter's happy zone down and in and Sullivan, you know, golfed it up off the foul hole. Just you know, the win expectancy for that was a twenty six percent change in that one swing right heading.
00:03:50
Speaker 3: You know, before he hit that home run, it.
00:03:52
Speaker 2: Was basically a fifty to fifty game, fifty point win percentage for the Diamondbacks. That one swing dropped him to twenty four point six percent. That was the single biggest event of the game when it comes to win probability.
00:04:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was. It was a big blow, no doubt. And unfortunately for Meryl, home runs have been a pretty big issue for him. He's now one point eight home runs per nine for the season, twenty five homers allowed in one hundred and twenty five innings. That's a that's a really big number when you look at you know, recent seasons for him. Last year, in one hundred and eighty four innings, Merril allowed twenty three home runs. So he's already above that here in twenty twenty six. And I think with Meryl Jack we've been We've been telling ourselves for a while, like, okay, even though he's not striking out a ton of guys, even though he's still walking a few more than you'd like, He's starting to get some softer contact. He's starting to get at least good results, even though he hasn't been pitching super deep into games unfortunately. Just as kind of an objective, I think if you, if you kind of separate yourself from what Meryl has meant to this organization the past few years, the reality is, I don't think anyone is looking at his numbers this season and seeing a pitcher that you really want pitching for you in a Pennant chase, right, I mean, the numbers just kind of are what they are. I mean, he has a five to eleven ERA, he has a five point seven to one FIP, he has a four point nine to eight x FIP. His expected ERA, I think is still well over six. That number has been way up there the whole season, and so I still don't really know what the solution is here. I know his VLO was down a little bit in this one, and maybe that was a factor. Yeah, I was a tick and a half. It was kind of it was kind of a lot. But still, I mean, you look at his stuff, you know, the movement the VLO for the entire season, it's not that different from a year ago. And I just keep going back to the zone rate, Like what percentage of Merrill Kelly's pitches is he throwing in the zone in this game? It was thirty nine percent, And that's just it's just way too low. And even as Kelly has gotten better results here in recent games, most of these games he's still he still just hasn't been throwing enough strikes. He's gotten away with it at times, but not in this game against the Rockies.
00:06:15
Speaker 2: Well, you know the Rockies broadcast. I mean I'm paraphrasing a little bit here, but essentially, you know, there was a comment Merrill just doesn't have the stuff.
00:06:24
Speaker 3: Anymore to do what he used to do.
00:06:26
Speaker 2: So he nibbles a lot, and if you're patient, you're going to get something to hit. And I think that, you know, that's part of it. I mean, obviously he's trying to nibble a lot of times. Those nibbles are actually not even very competitive pitches. But you know, if the hitters are patient, they're getting something to hit and they're doing a lot of damage on it. I know that the metrics and the things that we look at numerically probably tell us that the stuff isn't that much different. But the hitters are telling us the stuff is different. It's not as good hitters. Hitters are telling this by the swings that you're taking and the damage that you're doing.
00:07:07
Speaker 1: That's fair. I mean, I'm not here to say that, you know, the movement numbers and the vlow that we can see like that's the end all be all there. There certainly could be something more going on. I just keep going back to like, well, there's a big difference between a two to one count and a one to two count, you know, or three to one in two, and Merrill just keeps winding up on the wrong side of that over and over again. I think that can really have an outsized impact for you know, a picture of his type switching gears to the offense. The Diamondbacks set up plenty of chances to pick up Meryl in this one. Unfortunately, they they they made a comeback, they made it a little interesting, but they weren't able to come all the way back. They did score a run in the bottom half of the fifth inning that came on a Gabby Moreno RBI double. Corbyn Carroll hit a home run late as well. That was this one hundredth of his career, which was pretty cool to see. Man, it felt like the Diamondbacks had the bases loaded just about every inning, Jack and you know, they were able to get a run across here or there, but it just was not nearly enough. They wind up leaving fifteen on base in this game.
00:08:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, in the fifth inning when Gabby had that RBI double, he gets it done there. Paedomo, by the way, made a really nice hustle tag to get himself into scoring position on that. But you know, Nolan taps out with the bases loaded with a week round out to short in the sixth inning, you know, with two outs, Corbyn Walks just missed a three run homer.
00:08:35
Speaker 3: It hit went over the bullpen. You know, Gaby gets called.
00:08:39
Speaker 2: Looking on the chat that at bat, I mean, he gets called out, you know, looking on a pitch that was challenged for the strikeout. And prior to that, Gabby had a challenge twice just to stay in the bat. The home played umpire missed by multiple inches twice, and that at bat to Gabby pitches way above the zone, like not even close. The guy had a bad day. There were numerous other situations, you know, But then you go like bases loaded, nobody out in the seventh Kepler pops out, Vargas, Pinch hits for Tower and he walks in a run. And then this was the next biggest The second biggest swing of the game was Waldy's five four to three double play. That was the second biggest WPA the game. That was worth negative twenty percent to the win percentage. They had actually gotten back to within striking distance twenty seven point four percent. I mean, you know, it's a six three ball game. One out, bases loaded, seventh inning, you know, you get something done there and now you're you're getting back close to fifty percent. Instead he hits into the double play, the win expectancy drops twenty percent and down to seven point one percent, and that essentially, you know, pop back up a little bit, like you said when Corbyn homered.
00:09:52
Speaker 3: The other thing is, you know.
00:09:53
Speaker 2: Nolan did not have a good game, you know, and it needs to be said. If you look at the average leverage index or the player leverage index, Nolan's index is the highest amongst the qualified batters on the team. In other words, he's actually had the most high leverage key situations and he's got a negative DPA WPA of minus one, maybe even a little higher than that after today's game, So you know, I mean, Dolan's come through with some big hits, but at the same time, the full season one hundred and twenty games numbers, when you add them all up, he's actually fairly negative. I mean, he's got the largest negative WPA amongst the starteus that have qualified that are qualified for the batting title.
00:10:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think overall, like Nolan is still it's hard to be upset with what he's given the Diamondbacks this season. He's probably going to hit twenty home runs, but it is a good point that the context and the timing of those hits does matter, and there have been some big ones there, but there have also been a lot of situations like what we saw in this game, where he's just not able to come through in one of those key moments. Unfortunately, Jack, the San Diego Padres just continue to win. They beat the Milwaukee Brewers in eleven innings today, found a way to score two runs in the bottom half of the eleventh inning, to walk it off. So this is where the standings sit right now. The Padres now have sole possession of the second wild card spot there at sixty five and fifty seven. The Phillies lost again. They're not exactly cruising right now. They lost seven to one to Saint Louis today, So the Phillies and Diamondbacks are now tied for that third wildcard spot at sixty four and fifty eight. Dbacs technically have the tiebreaker there. I guess that's something we should keep an eye on. They took two out of three from Philadelphia earlier in the season. There's another series between those two teams here in a couple of weeks. The Marlins have crept back up in this thing. They're only a game and a half out. The Cardinals are two and a half games. Really nice series from them against Philly, and then the Nationals, Reds, and Pirates all between five and six games out here as we record on Wednesday nights. So the Diamondbacks playoff odds have effectively been a coin flip for a while now. They've been a little over fifty percent. Now they're a little under fifty percent depending on where you look. Fangrafts has them at forty two point eight right now. But unfortunately, we've reached the point, Jack where I think the projection systems are going to favor the Padres and the Phillies over this Diamondbacks team. They're now inarguably the worst position out of those three teams.
00:12:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's because they have an offense that just does not project on paper to be able to get the job done at this point. Even though Katel and Corbyn are clearly starting to turn it around, there's just not enough support there, yeah, you know, and it's just showing up in game after game, like, Okay, we have a nice little stretch there where the bottom of the line was doing really well and Corbyn and Catel weren't hitting. Now those guys are starting to turn it on and the bottom of the order is starting to look like the role players that they are. And you know, unfortunately Lars Newbar has not come in and had any positive impact yet. I don't know if from when he will, you know, I mean, he really has struggled a lot since coming back from He did have a good June, but other than that, he's struggled for you know, better part of two years now, and we know well that he went through a really tough time with a surgery. But you know, that guy's got to start doing something. He's gonna start contributing otherwise it's really going to be a very tough look for my kasm.
00:13:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no getting around that. The Diamondbacks only made one move at the trade deadline and it was to go get Lar's new bar. So still a lot of time left. He's only played. You know, we're still about a week or so of games at this point from him. Lots of time to turn things around. But I guess not a disaster of a Homestand for the Dbacks, when you look all the way back, you know, they split the series with San Diego, they take two out of three from LA and then they come right back and lose two out of three to Colorado. I guess if those outcomes had been swapped, like maybe everyone's just like, well, yeah, you're probably gonna lose two out of three to the Dodgers and winning two out of three to the Rockies is totally fine, and maybe there's not so much negativity right now. But losing to this Rockies team at home, especially while the San Diego Padres go out and sweep the Brewers, who came into that series with the best record in baseball. The optics are just not great right now. Well, this is a mail bag episode and we are excited to dive into all of your mail bag questions. So with that said, don't go anywhere. We'll be back right after this here on Snake's territory.
00:14:58
Speaker 4: Let's talk Aboutletox, shall we. They have apparel for every season. We're wearing it as we talk about it. It's soft, it's comfortable. I wear it on the show sometimes on FT. What else do you love about it?
00:15:09
Speaker 5: Krats, Well, I have it on right now and I'm all about quality. But you know what, you know how good your clothes are when you're a parent and your kids keep stealing all of it. My daughter stole the sweatshirt, my son sole one of my t shirts. So it's got to be nice looking.
00:15:27
Speaker 4: And if it gets a little bit chillier, then it's layering season and they've got layers for the fall. Shop now at fabletics dot com slash foul to get seventy to eighty percent off everything when you sign up as a new VIP. Take a quick style quiz and be sure to select foul when prompted to unlock this offer. This is a limited time offer, so do not wait again. That's fabletics dot com slash foul for seventy to eighty percent off everything as a new VIP.
00:15:58
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Snake's Territory. Thank you all for being here. We really appreciate your time. If you haven't already, it really helps us out if you would drop a like on this video while you're at it, subscribe to the channel, hit the bell icon for notifications so you never miss an episode of the show. Maybe get a cool hat like the one that Jack is wearing or a cool T shirt like the one that I am wearing. You can get those over at Snake's territoryshop dot com. And finally, for joining us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, it also really helps us out if you would leave us a five star review. With that, we're gonna go ahead and jump on into the mailbag, one of our favorite things to do here on Snake's Territory. Our first question comes from y e roc three one zero three over on Reddit. They say, how would you rate Tory's performance so far this season? If we miss the playoffs by a game or two. Has he done enough with this group to justify renewing his contract? Jack, what do you think?
00:16:57
Speaker 2: I think very much that he must make the playoffs in order to be brought back, and maybe even just winning a while, you know, getting to the wildcard and losing two games out of three in the wild card or something that might precipitate him not being brought back as well. I think they need to make the playoffs and maybe even need to win their first round for him to be able to continue as the manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks. As far as assessing the job he's doing this year, it's so hard. I mean, look, I get a little tired of all the Tory arguments and Tory debates because most of it's just simply coming from frustration, you know, and the off site. Well, they're not making the playoffs and you haven't made playoffs in ten years, and you know, look, you work with what you have, and every time you point out that a lot of times he hasn't had the best rosters and oftentimes had lousy bullpens, it's like, oh, you're a Tori apologist, and you know it's like I'm not for ready, it's so tired.
00:17:58
Speaker 3: But what I want I want, I want to look at this subjectively real quick.
00:18:03
Speaker 2: I often like to look at the fangrafs, Pythogoreean and base runs standings versus actual And now that doesn't mean if there's a big difference there, it's necessarily the manager that's all responsible for that. But that's where maybe you can tease out, like some of that difference is going to be perhaps due to what's.
00:18:28
Speaker 3: Going on from the dugout.
00:18:31
Speaker 2: So coming into today, the Diamondbacks were sixty four and fifty seven, and their Python Gaorean one loss, which is based on runs scored and runs allowed, was sixty two and fifty nine, So there were two games better than there in their actual then versus their pythagoreeon. The other number to look at is the base runs, which is base runs is what you do as far as without sequencing, So it's all of the events. It's all of the hits, walks, homers, strikeouts, everything that happens, but ignoring sequencing, ignoring clutch, ignoring runners in scoring position, it's how many runs you should have scored based on these events, and on that metric they're sixty and sixty one, So in other words, they've been four games better than their base runs. You can find all this that fangrafs under their standings tab. So what does that mean? Basically, the Diamondbacks actual one loss record has outperformed they're expected one loss based on runs scored and runs allowed, and it's all. They've also exceeded their one loss based on expected runs. So most of that is luck or sequencing or just you know, the way the ball's bouncing. But if there's any room in there to try to tease out, some of that may be due to the manager and how he's managed things and how him and his coaching staff have managed the players.
00:20:05
Speaker 3: So you can say that the team is.
00:20:07
Speaker 2: Slightly overperforming what they should have gotten wins wise. Now it's a double edged sword because I'm talking about twenty twenty six. If you go back to previous years, Tory would more frequently be on the negative side of this ledger.
00:20:24
Speaker 1: That's all really good stuff. I don't have a whole lot to add other than to just say I think it's funny that I want to say. It was two days ago there was Twitter discourse about whether Tory could win Manager of the Year. You know, like, I think there is a valid case that some people are making and now we're like, yeah, you know, I'm sure that's how people feel right now. After losing these last two games to the Rocky is like, yeah, it's time to move on from this guy, right, So it feels like the narrative here changes every couple of days. I agree with you that, Hey, yeah, what were you going to say?
00:20:56
Speaker 2: Who's the narrative? I mean, forget Twitter, right, it's all nonsense.
00:21:00
Speaker 1: I live on I care about.
00:21:05
Speaker 2: Every time they lose two games. It's the same fifty people that's retweeting over and over and over and over and over and over and over about fire.
00:21:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. I don't think it.
00:21:17
Speaker 2: Just brings nothing to the discourse. I mean, I'm not saying that there isn't a good evaluation exercise that needs to be done here in evaluating Tory Leavello. And that's exactly what the front office is doing and what ownership is doing. And they're the ones that make the decisions, you know. And all I've ever tried to do is like bring more light to situations that people may not often understand or not have not even understand, just not have all the information. Yeah, you know, why didn't he bring in his picture? Well, my picture has got an ice pack on his arm and he.
00:21:50
Speaker 3: Can't pitch today. You know, things like that.
00:21:52
Speaker 2: It's just that that stuff happens all the time, where people go off on things that they think they know and understand, and then when you try to give him the information and fill in the blanks that they don't have, they go off on you about being a Tory apologist. It's like, whatever, it's a boring conversation.
00:22:11
Speaker 1: That's so fun, so much fun. Yeah, I mean, I'm in agreement that I think the Dbacks definitely have to make the playoffs for Toy to keep his job. Is that fair? I don't know for sure. I don't think this roster is awesome on paper, the fact that Dbacks are in this position, as you outlined, like, I think there's a pretty strong case we made the Toy's done pretty good with what he's had. On the other hand, he's been here for a while and this is just kind of the way the game is played. Like when your team doesn't make the playoffs for a few years, justified or not, someone's gonna lose their job, and for the Diamondbacks, it probably would be Tory Leavello if they're not able to get in. So a fun conversation that we'll just leave right there for right now. Our next next question comes from Colton Walker, who said, if you had to say your playoff rotation for the wild Card Series right now, who would it be? This is fascinating, Jack, What do you think?
00:23:10
Speaker 2: It's pretty easy for me as of right now this moment. I mean it would be e Rod and fought one or two, just depending on how they lined up and whose turn it was. You know, they're going to be fighting all the way down to the last weekend of the season to try to make the playoffs, so it really just depends who's available. And Michael Soroka, I mean, those are the three guys that I would use. I would line those three guys up the best I could.
00:23:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm right there with you. It's those three. I guess if you got to an NLCS somehow or or the World Series, you needed a four starting pitcher. I mean, I think as you you'd pick Mitch brad over Merrill Kelly. If you're like going ulter recency bias, I imagine the Diamondbacks would would lean more toward Meryl Kelly given his history in the postseason, but maybe Corbin Earns is in the picture at that point. The dbacs could have some other options there as well. But yeah, the top three is pretty clear. E Rod Soroka fought in in some order. I think is pretty much the clear the clear move there. Our next question comes from simply underscore. Leo Over on Reddit says, when Lawler comes back, who do we DFA? Does Max Kepler go by at that point? Yeah, I think that this is an interesting decision the d Backs are going to have to make really soon, maybe like tomorrow to Jordan Lawler hit another home run for Amarillo today on Wednesday, back to back days with a home run for Lawler there, so he very well could join the Diamondbacks this weekend. You what do you think, Jack Well?
00:24:49
Speaker 2: I mean, if they option a guy, they'll option Tyler Locklear because he's hardly playing, and so the guy that they'll send out is likely to be the guy that they hardly use. If the DFA or player, it would be Kepler. We've been saying for a week now, the guy's better start producing. He actually did start producing. A bit today. I think, you know, he maybe is turning it around, but we still need to see some pop out of him. But if they're going to DFA anybody, I think they'll DFA him before the DFA Horny Porosa.
00:25:21
Speaker 3: It's my opinion.
00:25:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I mean, Kepler is on the roster to do one thing right. It's to hit right handed pitching. And he did have a decent game today, two for four with a walk, his first good game in quite a while. It feels like, so I think you want to see him get on a run. Tyler Locklear did have a pinch hit single in what it felt like a meaningful spot. He has an eight forty six ops, so it would be kind of a bummer for him to get sent down. But based on his usage, as you said, like that's kind of a leading indicator there, it seems like it seems like they would they would be more likely to option lockleyer at this juncture than to dfa Max Kepp, especially after Kepler just reached base three times. Like that wouldn't the timing there wouldn't feel right to pull the trigger in that regard.
00:26:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, we're just I don't even know what's right at this point. I mean, they're all role players. It's not like removing any one of them from the roster is going to be this massive change.
00:26:20
Speaker 3: You know.
00:26:20
Speaker 2: The main thing is is what's going to get Jordan Laller the most playing time? And how well is he what is he going to do with it? Yeah, that's really the main thing that matters. We're just trying to handicap what the team is going to do. I'm not invested one way or the other there.
00:26:37
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from officer doot Over on Reddit. Is there a world in which Lattel joins the rotation and replaces Mitch Bratt. I feel like we will see Lttel do a lot better here than Washington because our defense is very good, whereas Washington has some of the worst defensive stats in the league. It's a fair point point Diamondbacks definitely an upgrade in that regard. I don't know Jack, as long as Mitch Brod is pitching like he has lost a couple of times out, it's to Littel might have to sort of wait his turn here.
00:27:12
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:27:12
Speaker 2: I mean my guess is that at some point Lettel we'll get some spot starts. And get an opportunity to see what he can do. You know, if Bratt falters two or three starts in a row, or even Meryl, if he keeps doing what he's doing, if he continues to lose velocity, I mean, you know, God forbid, I hope he doesn't end up on the I L again, because if he does, there's probably not going to be enough time to get him ramp back up to help in the postseason. So you know, we'll see what happens there. I'm sorry, I'm just being a little bit alarmist. That mile and a half off on the four seam fastball for Meryll, two miles off on the cutter, even a mile, you know, losing a tick one point three I think on the change.
00:27:51
Speaker 3: Up, that's a red flag, you know.
00:27:54
Speaker 2: I mean, nobody's going to admit it openly initially, but you look at the start before he had cramping issues. So you know, Latel's probably going to get a chance here at some point. We just don't know who he's going to get a chance to replace.
00:28:08
Speaker 1: I'm just picturing a scenario where the d Backs they've got to throw all their best pitchers, you know, in order to just get into the playoffs and then you wind up with a game one wild Card series and Zach Lttel is on the mound. It would be very funny if that's how things turned out. But hey, you pitched great the other day in long relief and you're coming off two pretty good seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays, so you never know what Lttel might be capable of. Well, one more question here before we get to a break. It's from our good pal Jeff Irving, who says this team struggles versus right handed pitching maybe the biggest achilles heel of the roster. In my opinion. The bats we have coming back are right handed. Updated thoughts on any of the lefty bats and the miners coming up and making an impact later in the season. We were talking about this last night. Jack Manny Pania in Triple A. His numbers don't really jump out at you at this point. Be a little surprising to see him get a call up in the final month or so of the season. Not impossible if he were to rattle off a couple of really good weeks, but his ops right now in Triple A is seven to twenty four, So I think you'd be also forty nine strikeouts to nine walks, a bit of a rough ratio there. Gavin Connacello has has put up some pretty good numbers since being promoted to Triple A. Twenty three year old third baseman who does bat left handed. In nineteen games in Triple A, he's hitting three twenty three with a nine to sixty six ops eighteen strikeouts to seven walks. Out of the few left handed hitters at that level, he might have the best shot of anyone to get a chance at some point here.
00:29:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, he only had a ninety seven WRC plus and three hundred and eleven played appearances in Double A, and now he's at seventy four PLA light appearances, he's got a one to twenty eight WRC plus, so for the year.
00:30:04
Speaker 3: He's at one oh three.
00:30:05
Speaker 2: He's on a nice run in Reno, you know, And it's a little odd to see him, I guess, you know, it depends on the pitching that you're facing and all of that. You know, he goes up a level but hits better even relative to the league and park adjusted and all of that. I didn't get a chance to look up his Well, maybe it's sitting there.
00:30:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, his x wOBA in Triple A is three forty one. Okay, pretty good compare that.
00:30:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that that even even for you know, three forty one is a pretty good ex wOBA and his ex wOBA for the season. Yes, there is still three forty one because they only have Triple A numbers, so that's a good number. It's a small sample size, right, so you know, I don't know if the team is going to buy in on that, but maybe he's a September crawl up, and you know, maybe they bring him up a day or two before September one if they really feel like they need another left handed bat. But I don't think they're just gonna jump straight to a twenty three year old with less than one hundred played appearances in Triple A. I just don't think they'll do that. But it'd be interesting if they did, be kind of fun.
00:31:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it seems like if God forbid an injury happened to one of the starting infielders or something, that's where maybe something like that, maybe the d Backs just kind of feel forced to pull the trigger on something like that. I will mention that Peven Smith and Adrian del Castillo are also both in triple A. I don't know if those are the names that people are exactly thinking of here, and I think both guys would have to get pretty hot in order to get another shot, but certainly not impossible that that that could happen. Well, we have a couple more mail bag questions. They are both very fun, so we hope, we hope you stick around. But for right now, we're going to go ahead and talk about a big game the d Backs are playing this weekend in Atlanta. In this on deck presented by Fox One's segment, we're talking about Saturday's game, which is on Fox You of course could find it with Fox one Diamondbacks taking on the Braves on National TV this Saturday. Jack that game, I'm trying to remember who is on the bump for the Diamondbacks in that one. I want to say, it's Sieduardo Rodriguez.
00:32:26
Speaker 3: Now you got me, I gotta look it up.
00:32:28
Speaker 1: You know, I have a graphic that has it right here there.
00:32:31
Speaker 3: It is.
00:32:31
Speaker 1: It's Erod against Grant Holmes as the pitching matchup in that Saturday game. Grant Holmes, who were looking at his underlying stats, his FIP is pretty close to five on the season, but his surface level numbers are pretty good. He's a right handed pitcher, and of course that is scary in and of itself. He has a three four seven ERA on the season in one hundred and fourteen innings. E Rod Jack, you have to feel pretty good about him anytime he's on the mound at this point.
00:33:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, talk about the surprise of the year. Just having a daughter. Rodriguez be our security blanket. But it's just just no denying how well he's pitched and the pitchability there, and he's just squeezing every last inch out of his stuff by you know, being a crafty veteran. He's mixing his pitches, locating there, you know every once in a while. I mean, out of his last six starts as two clunkers in there and four really good ones. You know, he's not reeling off ten straight without a bump in the road.
00:33:32
Speaker 3: But he was great his last time out, and of.
00:33:34
Speaker 2: Course he threw that one hundred and fifteen pitch seven inning effort to save the bullpen. It's nice that he's getting an extra there's a day off in between, and now he's getting the extra day day's rest. I think that'll help him, especially because.
00:33:47
Speaker 3: It can be a little steamy down there in Hotlanta.
00:33:51
Speaker 1: That is very true, glam Glad. I am not spending my summer out there. In the Colorado series, one thing I will make offensively for the d Backs Corbyn. Carroll was very good in that series overall. He went four four eleven. He hit his one hundredth career home run. As we mentioned, he also had two triples, just the one triple one triple one double in addition to the two home runs. So a really good series for Corbyn overall. A lot of that happening against right handed pitching. I know the home run today was against the lefty, but he's a really big part of this offense against Ryde's and with someone like Grant Holmes on the mound on Saturday, you're you're hoping to see more of this from Corbyn as he kind of starts to turn things around here Jack and maybe look a little more like himself.
00:34:42
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:34:42
Speaker 2: Well, as you know we've said, I mean, the d Backs are only going to go as far as the stars can take them. They have to you know, carry the load, and you know, both him and Katel have started to turn it around here, so you know, hopefully that carries over and they just get a little bit more support. Tough Braves have a great pitching staff. You know, they have excellent bullpen. I mean basically the best bullpen in majors. So you're gonna have to get to their starters early because it's a lot of six inning games in Atlanta.
00:35:13
Speaker 1: Well, MLB on Fox is streaming on Fox one. The Race to October starts now, and we have your front row seat to the wildest walkoffs, lights out pitching, and clutch plays all season long. Follow every can't miss matchup as teams battle for a spot in the postseason. Then stream the twenty twenty six World Series live on Fox one at home or on the go live or on demand, never miss a moment. Stream now, Well, Jack, we have two more mail back questions to go, and these ones are both very fun. This one comes from Rebel King twenty twenty three, who says, fun question time for both Jesse and Jack. If you could somehow add one former diamondback in their prime to the team right now, whether it's at a playoff run, who would it be and why? I went back and forth and back and forth on this, But Jack, I'm gonna give you the first shot at this one. Who who do you got?
00:36:12
Speaker 3: I am?
00:36:13
Speaker 2: You know we by the way, we did not share our answers with each other, but I know we're thinking exactly the same thing. Do you want a left handed hitter or do you want a first basement?
00:36:24
Speaker 3: Oh?
00:36:24
Speaker 1: So you're giving me the option. Am I supposed to pick?
00:36:27
Speaker 2: Well? I mean in my mind, like you know, I'm it's like, what do I need more? Do I need a left handed bat or do I need a first basement? Yeah, it's one of those two. Now, if it's a left handed bat, we know who it is. And if it's a first basement, we know who it is. Yeahsalas, Louis Gonzales or.
00:36:50
Speaker 3: Paul Goldschmidt.
00:36:51
Speaker 2: And if I got to pick one, I'm gonna go Louis Gonzalez because his peak season two thousand and one was the most impact.
00:37:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is very compelling. I was I was thinking a two thousand and one Gonzo as well. He had an eleven fifty one ops against right handed pitching that year, forty two home runs just against righty's one hundred RBI. That'll certainly play and would be very nice in the middle of this Diamondbacks lineup. I also was kind of tripped up on the positional thing, like, oh, but a first baseman would like really fit the roster better, So maybe you just take like twenty fifteen Paul Goldschmidt, he had a one to fifty six WRC plus against righty's that year, Like, that'll work as well. But the other name that I was fumbling around and trying to figure this out what was causing me some pause was I was also like, maybe you just want Randy Johnson because he's Randy Johnson, And like, who cares how many runs you score if you can have Randy Johnson pitching for you, right.
00:37:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, But I just think of the twenty fourteen they had Randy Johnson pitching at a say young level, and he only went sixteen and fourteen because the team couldn't hit, So you still need runs.
00:38:09
Speaker 1: That's true. I like to think that this Diamondbacks offense is a little more confident than the two thousand and four offense that was a little rough. But yeah, it's a fair point. It's a fair point. Gonzo was my number one option with Goldie and Randy Johnson, We're both kind of in the mix. For me, this question does have a part two. The bonus question here is if you could magically add anyone in the league currently to the team besides Shoho Tani, that would just be cheating while taking into consideration current health. Who would you add? Jack? I'm not sure there's a right answer to this, but I kind of think there's a right answer to this. Did you also say Houston Astro's designated hitter, your Don Alvarez?
00:38:54
Speaker 3: Yes, of course, of course, Okay, I don't know.
00:38:58
Speaker 2: I think a triple crown winner my kind of also with this offense.
00:39:03
Speaker 1: I just went to fangrafts and and did the split leader board thing and just did verse right handed pitching and then just sorted by ops or whatever, and yord On Alvarez is like way better than anyone else, so it felt felt pretty pretty easy. He has a two to ten WRC plus against righty's this season and eleven forty ops. So yeah, jord On Alvarez would be a pretty big addition in that regard. Do you want to know who is twelfth on that list?
00:39:31
Speaker 5: Jack?
00:39:32
Speaker 1: WRC plus against righty's this season, so familiar, it's a familiar name. Blaize Alexander of the bal Baltimore Orioles is twelve.
00:39:42
Speaker 3: What's your PA criteria?
00:39:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not much, he was. I think it's one hundred and fifty, about one hundred and fifty played appearances. So plays Alexander not a qualified hitter this season. He's missed some time, I think so, Yeah, I think is back now. He has weird reverse splits this season where he's actually been much better against righty's and lefties. But yeah, it looks like he is back. Looks like he's four for six in his last two games entering today. So Blaze is still doing it out there in Baltimore. And uh yeah, d Backs can kind of use him. That's a that's a bit of a bummer. Anyway, our last question, let's go ahead and move on. Uh here's another fun one. If you could design one pitcher in a lab with five pitches from across the d Backs pitching staff, which five pitches would you use?
00:40:36
Speaker 2: I e.
00:40:37
Speaker 1: Merrill, Kelly's change up, Michael Sirokas slurve that sort of idea. Jack, I'll give you the the first the first shot at this one as well.
00:40:46
Speaker 2: All right, So I went with Ryan Nelson's four seen fastball, wa Mario's sinker, Herado Corrio's cutter. Oh, Brandon Garcia is sweet slide sweeper, and Andrew Hoffman's change up, And I did this kind of yeah.
00:41:07
Speaker 1: I didn't expected Andrew Hoffman mention. Okay, I know.
00:41:12
Speaker 2: Nothing else worked for him, and his fastball wasn't good enough, but his change up stuff plus is one hundred and fifteen. Brandon Garcia is sweeper, stuff plus is one forty three, Mario's sinker's one eighteen, and Ryan Nelson's fastball's won ten. So you know you got you got the high rise you know, high ivv Ryan Nelson fastball, and you got the Hoffman change up, and you can take care of lefties with those two right, you know, top shelf up and in with the four seemer boom, knock him out down and a way get the swing and miss from the change up. Think Eric Kangey back in the day, if you're that old, you know. And then against Righty's you got the sinker slider combination of Mario's sinker and Garcia's slider and growing a little cutter action there and right He's don't have a chance either. So that was my my five. I did look also at run values, but I don't know if your yours is kind of using run value, So I'll circle back to that once you're done.
00:42:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have I have kind of a mix of some run value stuff, some stuff plus numbers as well.
00:42:23
Speaker 2: Uh.
00:42:24
Speaker 1: Part of me was like, well, I'll take Justin Martinez his four seemer and Justin Martin sinker and Justin Martin.
00:42:32
Speaker 2: Wait, he's hasn't played yet this year.
00:42:37
Speaker 1: Did you see how Hardy was throwing in Reno just yesterday? Though, Jack, I feel like I'm allowed to do that. All right, I'll leave I'll leave jmar out Fron.
00:42:46
Speaker 3: You could have j You could have J mart If I.
00:42:50
Speaker 1: If I could have J mart then I don't know. His four seamer doesn't like it's all the velo is insane, right, I mean, it's one hundred and two miles an hour. Doesn't have crazy movement on that pitch necessarily, So even with J mart I maybe I would be torn between his for seamer and Juan Mario's for seamer. I think kuand Mario, certainly of the active players, has far and away the best four seam fastball on the roster. He's at a one oh nine stuff plus there. Honestly, not quite as high as I would have thought, but we've just seen like nobody can square up that pitch time and time again. It's been really, really effective for him, lots of ride, averaging around ninety nine miles per hour. So for leaving j Mart out, I'll go Juan Rio's four seamer. I also had Brandon Garcia's sweeper, or if we want to call it a slider. I guess if I'm calling that pitch a sweeper and I'm picking a true slider. Separately, I had Kevin Ginkle slider, which still grades out pretty dang well and has a whiff rate north of forty percent. I know he's left some in some bad spots at times this year, but the results against that pitch have still been very poor. It remains one of the best sliders that you'll find in a bullpen. I think the run value there is plus seven for the season, so pretty impressive stuff there. Juan Mario I have his change up as well. I think he probably has the best change up of any active player. And then I went to Michael Soroka's slurve. We got to have a slurve right, So I did throw Michael Soroka slurve in there. One ninety four opponent batting average on that pitch two sixty five x wOBA. All the indicators we have show that that has been very, very effective this season. Dbax don't really have anyone with like an awesome curveball, so I threw Brandon Fought in there. I know the run value isn't that high for some reason. I think maybe because he's not like great at spotting it for strikes. But the movement profile and his curveball is pretty good and guys don't tend to do much with it and it can generate some swing and miss. So Fought's curveball is maybe where I would I would lean for for a curveball if I was picking one.
00:45:06
Speaker 2: Okay, cool, you know, I just want to it's kind of funny. I want to circle back on the run value. So I I did the highest run value per one hundred pitches, because if you just add them all up, starters you know with a decent number is going to have a higher Like you know e robs On on any of these lists, but his fastball and changeup have the highest total run value on those two pitches, right, but if we go per one hundred pitches, okay, Uh, the slider was a Prado Correo five point one nine that was the highest, highest per one hundred pitches run value.
00:45:42
Speaker 1: I mean he think he's pitched like like ten innings, right.
00:45:45
Speaker 3: I know, I know, I'm just to say sinker sink.
00:45:51
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously in results, you know, the run value per one hundred is all about results, right, Sinker Taylor Clark tailor Clark sinkers generally four point sixty four runs per one hundred. The change up Mitch Bratt his change up rates three point eight nine per one hundred. Splitter his career again, Correa's got that splitter at three point sixty four curve.
00:46:18
Speaker 3: This one's gonna blow everyone away.
00:46:20
Speaker 2: Philip Abner three point three five, Wow cutter, Jonathan Loasaca three point three to one. And here's another one that's going to surprise people and not end here. Four Seeing fastball run value per one hundred pitches, Brandon fought one point eight six.
00:46:39
Speaker 1: I did see Brandon fought very very high up on the fastball run value, which is which is impressive because that was kind of his His big issue over the course of the first two three years of his career was his four seamer was just kind of getting hammered. We've seen him use the sinker a little bit more and the fur seemer this year has been very, very effective for him. So yeah, it's a fun exercise. I think it was cool to see how like doing this exercise now is a lot more interesting than it would have been three four years ago, even last year. I mean, there's just there's more guys with compelling stuff in this organization right now than we've seen in a while, at least close to the big leagues, and in the big leagues, like I could have been convinced take Harardo Correo on several of these Like if I can't have Justin Martinez a splitter, I'm probably taking Harado Correo splitter. I know that that showed up on your your run value list there. So yeah, the Diamondbacks have better stuff and and this bullpen, even though it has not been great here in recent days, it's a big reason why they've made it to this point, why why they're still in this race, and why they've still got a shot in this thing. With about a month and a half to go.
00:47:54
Speaker 2: They pitched four scoreless today, so yeah, I'm too bad. And they only gave up one run yesterday, so I mean the last two days they gave it one run.
00:48:03
Speaker 3: Not too chevy.
00:48:04
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, the run that was given up yesterday was the game winning run by Kevin Ginkle. There was one run in three innings and then no runs in for today, so you know, one in seven that's that's some pretty good work.
00:48:16
Speaker 3: That's maybe that extra rest.
00:48:18
Speaker 2: And you know, the Zach Lettel game was was a major factor and maybe helped getting them turned around. But I'm really happy about this question. It was a fun, fun question asked.
00:48:27
Speaker 3: It was great.
00:48:28
Speaker 2: I don't know if we gave all the right answers there, but look forward to seeing other people's thoughts on it in the comments.
00:48:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was very fun. Thank you to all of you who submitted questions for this mailbag episode. Sorry we couldn't get to everyone. There were quite a few, but keep them coming. We always really really enjoyed doing this. Diamondback speaking of getting a nice rest in the bullpen, they'll get a little more of that here Over the next twenty four hours. Dbacks have an off Day in Atlanta tomorrow, and then they start that three game series against the Braves on Friday. They will be opposed by Chris Sale in the first game of that series, and then Brandon Fott will pitch in that game. We already talked about e Rod and Grant Holmes on Saturday, and then it's Michael Soroka against Bryce Elder in the finale of that series. Hey, this is the playoff rotation, Jack, This is you fought e Rod and and Soroka line it up here against a pretty good team in Atlanta Diamondbacks. It feels like do not tend to play the Atlanta Braves particularly well, but they could really use a bounce back series here this weekend.
00:49:38
Speaker 2: And this is a pretty good preview. Like, is this team if they got to the playoffs, would be able to compete?
00:49:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. The pitching matchups could totally look like this in an actual playoff series.
00:49:53
Speaker 2: All right, Well, hopefully we'll get to see j mart and Jordan Lawler maybe this weekend, maybe Boston the latest, so it could be pretty exciting folks.
00:50:02
Speaker 1: There you go. And hey, Chris Sale is Chris Sale, but he's also a lefty, so you never know what you might get from this deepags offense on Friday Night. Thank you to all of you for being with us on this episode. We really appreciate your time. If you haven't already, you can find us on Twitter. I am at Jesse and Friedman. Jack is at sh Wizard fifty nine. Our show is at Snake's Territory, and of course you can find Jack's written work over at Arizona Diamondbacks on SI Jack. Any final thoughts here as we say goodbye.
00:50:33
Speaker 3: Another thing, I'm done.
00:50:36
Speaker 1: That last one. Just there's lots of run values and stuff, plus numbers and whatnot throw that we're all throwing out here. So appreciate all of you for keeping us busy, giving us lots of fun things to talk about it. We really appreciate it once again, and we'll be back with another episode here of Snake's Territory very very soon.
00:51:00
Speaker 3: S
