SHARP NFL Week 6 Bets: Ravens-Browns, Bills-Raiders and more

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:28
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing?
00:00:30
Speaker 1: I think we're awesome. Honestly, I think we are totally awesome. I think the games this week are so ugly. There are so many opportunities to embarrass ourselves. There are so many opportunities to look like geniuses. That's the beauty of the gambling. We don't know which way it's going to go yet. Could be up, could be down, could be right, could be wrong. This is our Thursday NFL Week 6 show. You'll hear sharp calls, brass balls, our underdog and favorite round robin parlays. We're going to get to Simon's biggest bets, sharp versus square picks. That one's on a little bit of a roll. Our Discord grouper of the week. You can join the Discord at readthenumber.com. We're going to narrow down to our final Five picks for our Sharper Square Pro Football Pick'em Contest, $ 25, 000 in the prize pool. Sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Simon, every week we discuss our picks on Tuesday. By Thursday, you've gotten an earful about where we are right and where we are wrong. So let's get to it, brother. It's time for Sharp Call.
00:01:51
Speaker 2: Who's there? I'm talking.
00:01:53
Speaker 1: Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing?
00:02:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can start with the Thursday night game. I'm once again shocked. All these pros are all over the dog once again. And I just thought more people would be on Seattle, especially professionals where it's two and a half. It's a good number. The trend betters. I know we talked last week. The trend betters are all over Tampa. It was just a spot for Tampa last week. All the trend guys, they saw that spot. And I heard the trends. I was reading the trends on their show. And I just still was just like, I can't see an undrafted rookie free agent quarterback going in there and beating Dallas. And boy, were the trend guys right. And the same thing this week with the trends. There's a bunch of ones that really favor this Denver team at home, shockingly. But yeah, it's a really interesting line, right? I think a plus three, there were some really respected professional money. Some groups I know that came in pretty heavy. Now two and a half. I know some really respected guys who have been in Seattle two and a half, but the number hasn't budged back to three. So very telling the books taking a stand on this Denver team. Bunch of pros backing them. So, yeah, if you want to ride the books to professionals, we talk that crazy streak right now. These primetime dogs, seven straight wins and covers outright. Maybe the books are hedging that. I just I can't believe this number is not three truly. So that one jumped out right away. College game, really fun, close to Chad's heart. This Hoosiers-Ohio State game, real hot topic in the shop. I mean, the amount of really smart guys I know that hammered, hammered, hammered that Ohio State team when I was two and a half. And, you know, went screaming up to three and a half, four at some shops, got hammered back by other really smart professional groups. Now it's kind of stuck at three and a half. So that's, a really fun game where I can see the public coming in really heavy on Ohio State in the morning. And I'm assuming more pros will come in and buy the hook with the three and a half plus four. It's just Cignetti is a dog at home, noon kickoff. I don't know if my two pro groups are going to be taking the Hoosiers in that spot. So those are definitely the two biggest talked about games in my life the last 24 hours now. Getting to Sunday's games, there's not so much guys dug in, right? I think a lot of people are aligned with us and a lot of our ugly dogs we like, right? The Chargers. Tons of love there. Once again, trend bettors, they love the Chargers in that spot. We'll get to that. Raiders, same exact thing. Tons of love for the Raiders. I mean, we'll get into it even more, but it's just– I say it's lazy betting, but it works. And you just fade these teams that are playing overtime games on short weeks on the road. That's exactly what the Bills are. They played in overtime on a short week, now on a back-to-back road spot. It's just– I know people are complaining about it. It's like, is this a feel too easy? It does feel too easy. But if you just bet that exact spot scenario and I'll get through the trends in the spots, it's a good spot to back the Raiders. So pros, they had the same view as us, right? It was six. They got hammered to four and a half. Now it's kind of bounced back up to five and a half. So really fun line, a lot of debate on that bills game. And is Josh Allen healthy? That's always been the hot topic. These last two weeks, Cleveland, another game we loved pros are all over it. I mean, I'll get into it. It seems like Lamar will be back. We've seen the line now bump up to five and a half. That pretty much means Lamar will be back. Same with Atlanta. Some really respected groups I know came in really heavy on Atlanta. Plus three, plus three and a half. All on the hedge that Penix didn't have cracked or broken lungs. I mean, that was the whole thing, right? We all thought he cracked his ribcage or had a, you know, whatever it was. He's at practice. He's all padded up. You've seen that number now come down to one and a half. So that was another one where Probably missed it. Probably should have took Atlanta plus three, plus three and a half. I said I couldn't put money on a team that could potentially have two of us starting that team. So the Wise guys were definitely ahead of that one. When we missed, and I would say for the big favorite chalk when we talked about Patriots, a lot of love from a lot of pros I know. But it was really at the seven, not so much the seven and a half. So that's one we can definitely debate, talk about. It's values at seven. I don't know if their hammering is heavy at seven and a half.
00:06:05
Speaker 1: I did get a text this morning from Chris Feliga, our good friend, the bear. He's on Fox. He hosts the show Bear Bets. He's on the Fox big new kickoff show. He's headed to Bloomington. His quote was, he thinks the Hoosiers have a shot. I didn't want to ask anymore. I don't know if that means he thinks they're going to cover. He thinks they're going to win. I didn't want to get into it. I'm so excited. for that game. Let's get into them because a lot of the games you're talking about we want to touch on, including that Seattle-Denver game. It's so interesting. Talk about everything you just said. Dig in a little bit more. So many trends to back up taking the Broncos here. Sean Payton in October. Amazing. The underdog on Thursday on the primetime game this year. Amazing. But there's nothing about this Broncos team that lends any confidence to making that pick, especially when we're talking about Mike McDonald on the road. So I get it. Like last week, I didn't have any faith in the Cowboys. This week, I don't really have faith in the Broncos. I have a lot more faith in the capabilities and the fixing of mistakes from the Seahawks point of view than I do from the Broncos point of view. But I haven't bet it because it's scaring me that I'm getting so much feedback from About the Broncos.
00:07:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't get it that I can't with this number is not minus three and a half. I know Seattle struggled this year, right? They're not what we're used to defensively. But man, it's we know that the Seattle Seahawks with Mike McDonald as a head coach. I think they're like 13 and three on the road against the spread. Like he just covers on the road and we're getting two and a half. It's mind-boggling. I just can't believe the books are standing so heavy on this. I got why the pros were taking the Broncos at plus three. Sure, you're getting the Broncos. Like Chet said, Sean Payton at home in October. The trends really favored that. We've seen this Broncos team play pretty well, obviously, at home. But they have so many injuries to their defense. They're missing so many key guys. You're missing your number one cornerback going against JSN. Patrick Sartain can maybe even out a little bit and travel them on the field. Now he's out. you know, that's a big deal. How is that not reflected in the line? It's, it is a mind bog. Like to me, it's, it's very telling why the books are back in here. So yeah, it's a, it's a game where I thought I'd be really heavy and happy to bet the Seattle Seahawks, but you know, we know more often than not, if you're taking a large position on Seattle, it's a long time loser. Like the books, there's a reason they're taking a stand here and they're just, they're basically just telling you, this is a down, a little bit of a downturn for the Seattle Seahawks team that, We knew it was going to be a different year and we knew that the offense would look different. And maybe they have shifted too much putting what we saw last year. I remember for the first half of the year, they put so much on Sam Darnold. Yeah, he was leading the league in turnovers and they pulled it back, became a run first team, a run heavy team with Kenneth Walker. And it obviously all worked out. They didn't have a single turnover in the playoffs and they won a Super Bowl. That looks like they're going to need to get back to that because Sam Darnold is just putting their defense in bad spots, right? You saw that last week against the 49ers. They did really well against Brock Purdy into that fourth quarter where they only could handle so many short fields, and they just got tired, and they broke down. So, yeah, this is a really tough game to handicap here. I think we both know we're supposed to take Denver, but we just have so much respect for the Seattle Seahawks and what they've done in past performances. We're just hesitant to do it. And if it was plus three, three and a half at Polymarket, I'd have no issue taking the Broncos, but two and a half, I'm just not going to force it. Maybe I'll do a little in-game betting here, but, um, it stinks. I wanted to find a way to be on Seattle and talk myself into Seattle, but I just can't tell people to do that here, and I can't bet it logically. There's just something a little off and fishy about this line.
00:10:10
Speaker 1: Totally agree. Houston at Jacksonville, however, game being played in London, Jacksonville is a two and a half point favorite. We've been talking about this all week, and this line has been sitting at two and a half, basically minus 115 for as long as I've been looking at it this week. I'm just waiting for it to get to the three. I really want to take Houston, but I want to get the best of the number here. You and I both love Nick Giffen over at Action Network. He does the luck rankings, and this is one of two luck rankings picks that where the luck has been in favor of the Jags and not in favor of the Texans. So the Texans are the side that luck rankings likes this week. I love that even more. It makes me want to bet the Texans even more, but I just want to get it to three. If it can get to three, I'm in the Texans, no problem. If it's not, I'm just kind of a pass on it.
00:11:11
Speaker 2: Fair. We're split. I'm still on the Jags.
00:11:15
Speaker 1: Interesting.
00:11:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think they had such a bad game last week. If they're what we think they are, which is a top-tier team in the AFC, they should bounce back here and win. They are the better team right now. They're the more complete team right now. The Texans, even their defense openly, they had guys saying it. They're like, Beating up Tennessee's offense is nothing to rave about. We're not proud that we just beat them. We did what we expected to do. The Tennessee Titans are a bad team. At least their players are being openly honest about that because I had the same view of it where it's like, I still don't know how to adjust this Texans defense yet. I still have so many questions about their secondary. This is a perfect opportunity to keep proving us that this Texans team, those first four weeks were kind of a fluke bad luck where they should have been 2-2. End of the game, Zim bounced their way. They instead were 0-4. They're not as bad as their record reflects, which we both agree. I just need to see them do it against a good team in a spot where the Jags, they should play really well. We know they're a good team. If they just cut down the penalties, the Jags are going to be a really tough beat, especially later in this year. That's what I'll be watching for in this game. I totally agree. I get why even this game split between betting pros. I think pros are the same way.
00:12:30
Speaker 1: Totally split.
00:12:31
Speaker 2: I think the same way as Chad is. It's just like Jags aren't that much better of a team. This is a neutral site. If I can get plus three, Texas is the side I want to be on. People have asked why this number hasn't moved much. I think that's why. It's just as soon as any shot moves at the three, they're just getting so much resistance for so much money. It's just, okay, it's a 50-50 game. We'll just skip it at two and a half, then let the market dictate it live. But this is definitely a unique spot in the sense that the Jaguars– Stayed in England. They didn't travel at all. This Texans team, this is technically a back-to-back road game. So, yeah, a lot of data that's going to point towards this Jaguars being our favorable spot.
00:13:09
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Bears visiting Atlanta. Atlanta is down to plus one and a half. It had gotten as high as plus three and a half. The news is that Michael Penix is progressing towards starting. But the news out of Chicago is also that Caleb was a full participant in in practice on Wednesday. And even with that news, the Pennix news kind of moved the number more aggressively than any conversation around Caleb's Caleb did. Unfortunately, I bet into the bears at minus three. So I've gotten almost the worst of the number. I'll be honest. I don't get this one. Like this is technically a great spot for the bears, a good team, coming off of a blowout, likely getting their quarterback back with a coach who's a maniacal psychopath, who's going to be so angry, he's going to scheme up something that is fascinating. Is this just about penance to Drake London? Like the professionals are seeing this and saying the Bears secondary is so atrocious. And now we are seeing what they're like when they don't get any turnovers. that Penix and Drake London will just rip them apart. This feels like a weird move to me considering the Bears offense and the fact Caleb could be coming back. Yeah.
00:14:39
Speaker 2: It's also tough though with the Caleb part, because we don't know how to handicap Caleb, right? We saw one game, he was all world against Carolina. Then the next game, he couldn't do anything in a rainstorm against this, the Minnesota Vikings. So maybe that's why people are a little down on them. And, um, the viewpoint of this is his first game back after an injury, right? So you don't know if he's going to be totally on who knows his running ability, right? It's a hamstring. That's what he's coming back from. So I think the line maybe makes total sense if it's panics, just because this is a coin flip game. Like this is no different than green Bay Dallas. It's two good offenses with two questionable defenses. And again, If anything, Atlanta has the defensive edge despite all their injuries. Yeah. You guys just lost your best pass rusher to a PED suspension, I believe, right?
00:15:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you could argue that it doesn't– like my kid texted me like Montez Sweat out for two games because of PEDs. I'm like, does it matter? It's not like the guy would just do anything or this defense is any good. It's about Caleb and the offense. That's it.
00:15:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, but like you still need them. Like you just– you need good– Chicago can't afford to lose players, right? That was the whole point. Ben Johnson, we've talked these numbers, but I'll keep reiterating it. Against the NFC North, I've talked about this. Whatever it is, he's just bad in division. I think in his career, he's 3-6 straight up against the spread in nine career games against the NFC North. Okay. Look outside the NFC North. When he plays against anyone outside his division, he's 12-3 straight up, 12-2-1 against the spread, Ben Johnson. So if you're looking for things to hang your hat on, it's just– He's good outside the division, especially against, you know, you could say inferior opponents. There's a reason the Bears are favored right now in Atlanta. It's clearly that we all think they're the better team than Atlanta. And I just want to dive more into what has been like after losses because, I mean, last year you guys didn't lose many games. Like that really piqued my mind too where it's just we've seen it this year. You had that bad loss against the Vikings. Then had the boys bounce back in a big way against the Eagles the following week. Like that was a big win bounce back spot. Ben Johnson, seven career games that he's had a straight-up loss. He's 5-2, straight up against the spread. And that just shows that he usually gets the guys up. Like, there's no letdown after these losses with Ben. So, small samples, but it's just stuff I noticed with Ben Johnson. It's just, he's great outside of division, not so much in division. So, this is a spot where maybe I'll just wait, see where the line goes. But I'm like you, I kind of want to be on the Bears. I'm going to wait and see what the Pennix news fully is. If he's fully cleared, Maybe this line flips, and now we're getting Bears at a plus number. Yeah. That's really the most shocking part is that he is back this week. Like, he just– the way he was talking to the sideline was as if he had cracked his ribs, and he was just like, yeah, I can't go back in there. I can't play. Whatever it was, they held him out, and now he's practicing. Like, he practiced on a Wednesday. That's a big deal for someone that wants to play. So, he's at no discomfort. He's going to wear those pads. He'll be playing Sunday, and like I said, this number could easily flip. So– We got the bad number on the Bears, but I think if you're patient, maybe we'll get a plus number on this side.
00:17:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to have no choice. We've talked about this for years on the show. I liked the Bears at minus three, partially thinking I didn't know who was going to be quarterbacking, but I was handicapping that Caleb would be for sure. I'm talking about not knowing who was going to be quarterbacking for the Falcons. But if I liked the Bears at minus three... How am I not going to bet the Bears at a plus number, at pick, even at minus one? I feel like I'm just going to have to be over-invested in the Bears this week, both emotionally and financially. It's making me sad. Simon, you know what else makes me a little sad? What I have to do when I present our Brass Balls Trade of the Week... The Los Angeles Chargers, eight and a half trading at 52%. Los Angeles Chargers, our brass balls trade of the week presented by Polymarket.
00:19:01
Speaker 2: You know what it takes? It takes brass balls.
00:19:07
Speaker 1: We both know it's ugly. We can run through everything we've seen. We just had a squeaker of a win with the Broncos over the Chargers at a bad number at three and a half. And it still worked out because Justin Herbert has been so bad in the fourth quarter. I read this in Bill Barnwell's column today. He has a QB rating of five in the fourth quarter. He's thrown four picks, including that dreadful pick that sealed the win for us last week against the Broncos in the fourth quarter. And he's got a league high five strip sacks. Joel will probably not be playing.
00:19:49
Speaker 2: We know.
00:19:49
Speaker 1: Rashawn Slater on the other side of the offensive line will not be playing. Maybe Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkie both come back, but there's nothing to like about this Chargers team, except that the number is just overinflated and we're playing the spot and everyone knows it's overinflated. And all the wise guys are playing an overinflated number. So that's what we got to do.
00:20:15
Speaker 2: Every year of Herbert's career, every year he's got some type of injury. So there's something that's going on with the Chargers. And the Chiefs are always the darling of the league. And they've just always been a little overvalued. This is just for Justin Herbert's career. I don't know what it was like before Herbert. But all the numbers back that up. If you go through it, Justin Herbert in his career against the Chiefs, 8-2-1 against the spread. That's not, like I just said, it's not shocking because every time the line has just been a little inflated. Now, the most shocking thing to me was the Harbaugh stats. Harbaugh, Jim, in his career, he's 5-0 against the spread against Andy Reid. That was shocking to me. I can't believe he's covered every time against him. Now, I've said to the 49ers, and that's when the Chargers have better teams, whatever you want to say, but just the fact that he's 5-0 against Andy and 3-0 against Mahomes was pretty shocking to me. Like, that's just... goes that every time they face, the Chargers are a little undervalued. And that's when they've had pretty good teams. This is the lowest time in our life, our career, of betting Herbert. This is the lowest point of history. They have not covered... I think Evan Amos had some crazy stats. It's like week 16 of last year. No one's left. It's over. No one's backing this team but professionals, right? The general public is just going to be so bitter about this team. But we've given those stats, right? Mahomes has these big favorites... I get why people are tempted to bet it, right? To me, money line, just like Drake May will get to, yes, go all in on Mahomes on the money line or you want to take him in a teaser, sure. I got no issue with that just because we've seen it. I think he's 16-1 in this exact spot. He's a big favorite at home against a divisional dog. But the one that jumps out to me is Andy Reid after a bye week. He does win. He's 12-6 straight up. but he's 6-12 against the spread after a bye week, including playoffs. So if there's no injuries to the Chargers, this is probably 3.5, 4.5. You add in injuries, now it's up to 6.5. You add in they have just been a train wreck, they're 0-5 this season, 0-4-1 against the spread, you give them another free two points. So it's a long-term winner. That's what I'm trying to beat over your head with these stats, where it's disgusting, it's ugly, but we're getting free numbers, and the trends love it. We already love this spot, so it's gross, but... That's why it takes balls, baby. Hold your nose and take it.
00:22:30
Speaker 1: Brass balls. The number's not going to get to nine. Some books have already moved it to eight. So if you want to get the Chargers, it's not going to get any better for you. You got to take the eight and a half, the Los Angeles Chargers trading at eight and a half at 52% on Polymarket. That is our Brass Balls trade of the week. presented by Polymarket. I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports. In the past, if you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And they've now launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat pics together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp. When you sign up, that's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10 dollars. You just brought up the Patriots and the Jets. The game is seven and a half. I've seen some sevens out there, but every time it gets to seven, it bounces back up to seven and a half. I think there is entirely a contingent of people who firmly believe the Jets are better than expected and undervalued, especially because of what their defense has been doing. Their pass rush has gotten better and better. David Bailey, went off the other day against the Browns. He was amazing. The Patriots' strength as an offensive line, believe it or not, has been their pass protection. Only five sacks the past few weeks. Only two sacks the past two weeks after giving up six the first two weeks of the year. Will Campbell was injured. But the big news, A.J. Brown looking like it's possible he can come back this week. And Drake May has been going off the past couple weeks without A.J.
00:24:57
Speaker 2: Brown.
00:24:57
Speaker 1: Something got fixed. It could be who they've been playing. It could be the pass protection. Something got better, which puts us in a little bit of a quandary with the Patriots right now.
00:25:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, he definitely got his confidence back, right? Even that Bills game we talked about, he had so many big-time throws and– those all connecting that working out for him just you saw that immediate boost right yeah even if you have the best game against the bills he's next to flawless against the raiders so um yeah we expect a little regression here obviously against the jets i don't expect him to put up 45 points but even if he takes a little step back i still think they can easily outscore this jets offense who's been inconsistent they have their own injuries they're dealing with offensively and um I immediately want to look at all the Aaron Glenn stats. It's like, OK, how is Aaron Glenn as a big dog? Because I just remember last year, I feel like the Jets were just getting steamrolled. And you could say, well, they're a different team. They have different, you know, obviously, Gino Smith. The underlying numbers, Gino's been all right this year. It's not like he's letting the world on fire. He's not been that big of a difference maker. So he's at 11 games that he's closed as a six point dog or more in his career. On the Jets, they're 0-10 straight up, and they're 3-6-1 against the spread. So, I mean, he obviously struggled as a big dog. Drake May in his career, I think he's 3-0 straight up against the spread against the Jets. Shockingly, against AFC East, he's 9-2 against the spread. So, Drake May, I know it's a small sample, but he's clearly started his career very good against his division. Takes it very serious. Even Last year when the, you know, the books are bumping up two or three points, it didn't matter. He was still blowing out divisional opponents and obviously plays well against the bills. We've seen that these last two years. So, you know, I, I, I look at this number and I try to get ahead of it, especially the AJ Brown potentially coming back and grabbing the sevens where I could. We'll probably have to make a real decision Sunday morning, seven half dog. I mean, seven half point favorite. I know we took one last week and it worked out for us. We need that exact scenario to play out though. And that's what's so tough. It's, When you take those type of numbers, it can't be Drake May throws a pick or has a fumble or, you know, Stevenson comes in and fumbles the ball on the goal line. We know at that number, it's seven and a half, probably dead if those things happen against the Jets here. So I know we don't love that many favorites. This one just jumped out to me and it's nice to know the trends backing up as well. So interesting where this line goes. If AJ does get cleared, does it hold at seven and a half? Does it start moving up to eight? Like we talked about, there's, some resistance on the jets or some respected money coming in on this jet side. And even the public likes the jets in this spot. They just think it's too big of a number. So yeah, this is going to be a fun one to track come Sunday morning.
00:27:43
Speaker 1: I think the thing with Gino is the jets quarterbacks have always been so bad that Gino and mediocre to a little bit less than mediocre is actually such an improvement. You know, you're as a jets fan, you're not immediately out of the game. With Geno Smith, if you fall behind a little bit, we've seen it in week to week. You know, last week, he did enough. He did enough to beat the Browns. And you normally don't get that. And so I think that's where there's some of the resistance is like, is he good enough, especially against a team like the Patriots, where they do have a lot of injuries in the secondary? So is that where they can be vulnerable? Brees Hall, by the way, he's been a real game changer for the Jets.
00:28:27
Speaker 2: He is.
00:28:29
Speaker 1: 50-50 or less to play this weekend. He's been missing the past few weeks. Really hard game. I really want to take the Patriots. I really want the seven. And so we're not going to get that in the contest from a contest point of view. I think it's going to be hard to put the... The difference between taking the Texans last week and the Patriots this week is that the Titans are just so bad, right? There is something serviceable about the Jets and Versus the Titans, they really are a level of incompetence that is reaching historic proportions here. Baltimore at Cleveland. Cleveland is a five and a half point underdog now. It was four and a half. There is a, quote, realistic, unquote, chance Lamar is going to play. Certainly feels like the market has been betting into this game as if he'll play because the number has moved up. My question for you, Simon, you just mentioned Evan Abrams. Thanks to Evan for this stat. Do people not know that Carl Sheffers is the official in this game and that dogs cover at a 61% clip in his games since 2020. Don't people know that that could be reason enough to bet the Cleveland Browns.
00:29:55
Speaker 2: I love it. And, uh, I think I saw another crazy stat. I don't know if I haven't tweeted it or maybe it wasn't his, but basically Lamar, he struggled after the Ravens win. In his career, or not his career, but I should say his last, whatever, his ninth and games, he's lost seven straight games after a win, which is just bizarre for Lamar because people forget Lamar obviously won that game against Tennessee before he got knocked out of the game at halftime. So I think Lamar's coming off a win. He's actually 2-8 against the spread in this exact spot. Whatever it is, whether it's the shops overvaluing him, and that tends to happen, right? The Ravens win, Lamar wins, the books bump it up, and now we're in even more of a perfect trap where the Browns came off an embarrassing loss, and now they're, once again, the shine's off them. Everyone's left them for dead, even though we said last week was the definition of a trap line for the Browns. And that's why I love what we do, where it's just, it's the zigzag, so. yeah, could we get caught and get burned once again on this Browns team? We know we're betting into. They're a bad team. The Ravens are a more complete team in every way, you could say, but still see weaknesses in this Ravens team across the board. Offensively, they feel like they're inconsistent. Defensively, I don't know if Trey Hendricks has been the guy they really thought they were getting, and you look at the underlying stats, he's lost a step. That's the truth, and it really is. The NFL, that's how it is. You have one or two bad injuries, you kind of miss a year, you're not in the same type of groove, and you're not the same player you were before, right? So just looking at this matchup, I'm actually happy it's not Snoop Huntley. Like he's actually been really good. And you go through all the underlying numbers, he's tended to be undervalued by most shops and bookmakers. So looking here, I'm hoping we can get to six, but I'm still fine taking the five and a half for the four and a half, whatever you can get on this Browns team. It just, this feels like a close field goal game or, you know, Ravens are up by 10 and we get a late touchdown or whatever it may be. It just feels like a very close game. We've seen Deshaun Watson play so well in these fourth quarters. So just going through it this year, this Browns team, even last year, we talked about they're a different team at home. We said this year maybe it'll be different, right? Schwartz is no longer coaching this defense. Maybe the defense will be different home and away. I still look at this team as they've just played better at home this year. The offense has played better as well. We're looking at a number here that just feels very favorable to this Browns team in a tough divisional game. This is a game where maybe Sunday morning we talk ourselves out of it because there's other games we love better. This to me is one of these bets hanging right on the edge where I go either way on it, but it feels like such a good number it's hard to get away from this Browns side.
00:32:35
Speaker 1: We are so locked in on the Browns. There's more on the Browns to come. later in the show, you've got a Simon, you've got a lot of supporters on the Browns this week, Carolina at Philadelphia. You've been telling me all week, the Panthers, a plus one and a half was a sucker bat, but you also said it was the right side. Even though most of the money and the tickets have been on the Eagles, this line has flipped and the Panthers are now the favorites. So I'm, I'm glad I got the Panthers at plus one and a half, but what gives here? What is, what is the community saying about this game?
00:33:17
Speaker 2: It's exactly what I said was going to happen. I said that I can't believe his line hadn't flipped and it did flip. So yeah, it's not a shocker. I also, I said it was a sucker line, but I said to bet Carolina in teasers. That to me was the move. You get them at seven and a half. It just, it's a bad spot because it's just historically the Eagles win and cover these exact spots. That's why I felt like a sucker bet. But, The public is obviously on to it. The pros are on to it. I thought the Eagles were going to get no love here, and they are getting love. So, yeah, come Sunday morning, Chad, if you want to take a stand on the Panthers, I'm not going to fight you on it. We talked about that stat. These teams coming back from England have not performed well. I mean, just this year, Warren Sharp came in this summer and gave us this whole rest disparity stat.
00:33:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah.
00:33:58
Speaker 2: I think if you just blindly bet Warren Sharp's stats, the teams that basically are on short rest compared to teams on favorable extended rest, they're 13-3 against the spread this season. I didn't know that. That's crazy. You could have been super lazy betting this year, and you'd be very profitable. I'm trying to rethink this one. It's like, yeah, it's a trap spot. It's a sucker bet betting the Panthers. That's why the Eagles are getting so much love. But the cheat code here to me was going to be the fact they were getting Saquon back and Devontae Smith. Now both those guys are still not practicing this week. So I think the line also reflects that. You're still not getting your number one running back or your number one receiver back. you're down to your fourth or fifth string running back now in the Eagles and they still are down four offensive linemen. So I get it. I get the line moving. Like I said, I didn't, I didn't get why the Eagles were still favorite. We're on Tuesday. The flip makes sense. The Panthers are just the healthier, more rested team right now. It's just, it's a stinky line. That's, that's my hesitation here with this line. It's just, it's never that easy, but sometimes it is. So yeah, if you want to put in the Panther Sunday, I'm not going to fight you on. I just, try to warn us off of it because it just never felt right. Never felt right when they hung this number where I didn't go to the Panthers just weren't minus three. That would have made sense. But instead, the books had opened this with the Eagles and now they're paying for it now because so much money is coming on this Panthers side. So we'll see where it ends up. But yeah, it's just there's no Saquon, no Devontae Smith. I'm not investing heavily in this Eagles team right now.
00:35:25
Speaker 1: Well, look, the truth is if the Panthers end up as favorites in the contest, which is what they are right now, I can't imagine we're putting them in because we have been allergic to putting teams into the contest if the line has flipped. I can't think of a single instance where that's worked out in our favor. I don't see us bucking that trend. By the way, especially when we have so many other games that are so enticing, like the Arizona Cardinals visiting the Los Angeles Rams. They're 12.5-point underdogs, the Arizona Cardinals. in Los Angeles. Got a couple of games this week that are definitions of pros Joe's games. And this is the first one we're going to talk about. Majority of the money in Arizona. It's why the line has dropped from 13 and a half down to 12 and a half. The tickets all on the Rams. Bad team, bad losing streak that just got blown out. That's the side you want to play. Then you get into the matchup. This Cardinals team is particularly bad. They've allowed 30-plus points in the past four games. Sean McVay, 14-4-1 against the spread against Arizona. Thank you, Evan Abrams. We've both bet into Arizona, but one of these has got to give. Either McVay won't cover because this is a huge number, and historically a spot where you want to back the dog. Or McVay is just so mad that his super team is two and three, and he is going to play on the gas the entire freaking game against an undermanned, less talented team. We got to make a choice.
00:37:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've come around, unfortunately, to the Rams side, Chad. Oh, boy.
00:37:27
Speaker 1: Oh, boy.
00:37:28
Speaker 2: I know.
00:37:29
Speaker 1: At 12 and a half? I know.
00:37:32
Speaker 2: And it wasn't so much we were getting– I was getting a lot of shipper takes on taking the Cardinals that it just didn't make sense and it feels too easy. But definitely got pushback where the shops are telling you kind of what their view is of this. And just the fact that these double-digit dogs, we've talked about, they've not hit like they used to, right? No, no. It's definitely changed the other way. And the underlying numbers aren't great, right? So since the start of last season, double-digit dogs, In division, Jed, you're not going to like this one. They're 12-0 straight up. So the Rams are 12-0 straight up in this spot, 9-2-1 against the spread in this exact spot. So double-digit dogs in division doesn't hit like it used to. That's what really alarmed me. And even if you go back even further, so start of 2023, 9-2 straight up, 13-7-1 against the spread. So you finally back the favorites here. People have been printing money this way, which I couldn't believe. I can't believe the dogs have just been crushed in these double digit divisional dogs. Cause you know, even five, five, 10 years ago, this was just an easy auto play. It was like, all right, 58% of the time, the double digit divisional dog covers. It was just a blind easy bet because you know, we always talk about this. It's just inflated, right? The Rams lines inflated because of teasers, Moneyline parlays, all of that noise. They're gonna have to bump it up. Like they had it at 13 and a half. Like Chad said, pros immediately came and hit this number, which I agreed with. I think that's when we should have, but now that's coming down. It's under the key number of 13. That's what I got calls about. It's like, you're, you're betting into a bad number and it's a bad trends where historically now we've seen these big favorites at home divisionally do really well. So, Yeah, I saw those stats too about McVay. I had no idea he'd own the Cardinals like that. I knew he'd own them kind of, but that's crazy. 14-4 against the spread in his career. So I'm glad I talked myself out of this because I made a look and it's like, all right, there's three 4.00 PM games and we're on all three. And that did, did jump out to me right away where it's not just like we're on them. Me and Chad love the chargers. We love the Raiders. So I'm glad we're a little split here because I thought I was gonna be able to record it as well. But yeah, seeing that there are sharp, smart groups on the Rams and that, I talked to a bunch of guys who are the trend bettors, and they're the ones giving me all those trends. It's like, okay. I knew something was fishy about this line because I couldn't believe it was above 10. I really couldn't. The Rams just seem... They're a very good team, but defensively, they just seem so lost. And we've seen this Arizona team can move the ball. So, yeah, another game where... you know, if you're back in this Rams team, you're going to need a lot of luck. And that's why it's like, if I can just stay away from it, I'm happy. But I was shocked to see all those numbers about those double-digit favorites. Just going forward, that's something to keep in the back of our mind. We get these big favorites divisionally. It's not like it used to be. And there's more to it, obviously.
00:40:25
Speaker 1: I think I read somewhere else, and I'm going to do some research on this this week for our Tuesday show. I think there's a sweet spot in that 7 to 10 range that you can bet into the dogs because the overvaluing of the team that is the favorite pushes them into a range where the team that they're playing against isn't as bad as the perception. But I think when you get into those double digits, the teams are so bad that are the underdogs that the other team, if they are exactly what they are supposed to be, There is no real chance for them to cover. And I wonder if that's where the sweet spot ends up being. I'm going to look into that a little bit. I'm kind of glad you're talking me out of it because, like, I don't want to bet the Cardinals. I bet them, obviously, at 13 and a half. I'm not dying to put them in the contest. I definitely was not dying to put them in the contest if we're leaning into the Chargers and also leaning into the Las Vegas Raiders. The Las Vegas Raiders, four and a half point home underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. This is the other game that is the massive Pro Joe split this week. Raiders are either a good team off of a bad loss. That covers it a 57% clip. Or the Raiders are a bad team off of a bad loss. That covers it a 56% clip. Any way you want to perceive the Raiders, it's a good spot. Bills are on a short week. They did stay on the West Coast, but they're coming off an overtime game. road teams coming off an overtime game off a short rest 33 straight up 40 against the spread it might be a time to play the raiders a little bit on the money line in addition to taking them as underdogs.
00:42:17
Speaker 2: You nailed it and we knew right away this was going to be a spot but that that was really the undertone of our reasoning for it honestly was just you know This Raiders team, historically, data always shows these type of home teams, dogs, bounce back after bad losses. Even if they're a bad team long-term, it's technically a nice spot, long-term winning spot. Then you factor in the overtime stuff. It just, it supercharges this whole spot, right? It's like giving steroids to this bet where it's like, okay, it was already a nice spot. Now, all the trends hate overtime teams, right? Extra snaps offensively, extra snaps defensively, short rest. continue on the road. And just, we talk all the time, how big of a deal is it? All of us are all humans. We've all traveled. There's a big difference than being on the road, missing your family, people you love every day, five to six days, and then going out and playing another competitive game where we've seen it time and time again, these long road trips, it is mentally tough on teams. Like it's just, all you're trying to do is just get out there, survive, get the wind, get out of there. Right. Where, you know, the, this Raiders team, as bad as I looked in that game against the Patriots, we talked about that was like a game we were due for Kirk Cousins. We were due for a stinker game. Now Bill's defense, Patriots defense, basically the same, right? They're just two teams that, you know, the Patriots had injuries. They're secondary. The bills, they're just not great in the secondary. They're really not. We're up front. They actually are pretty good overall. The spills team, like they're, probably that's one of the bright spots of their defense. If you can really find one, I know their defense has been atrocious this year. It's just been all in Josh Allen once again, but it's just a matchup here where, you know, I look at this Raiders team that they're always going to move the ball. Like I just feel like offensively, they're always going to be able to move the ball. So obviously we both wished it went up to six. That would have been great. Cause that's really where a lot of the pros came in and hammered it. But like we talked about, it's just, Four and a half, five and a half, I still think they're going to get a great number. Anything above three and a half to me is a great number. And I just look at this game. I knew coming into this week, it was just as soon as I saw it, I was like, I knew we were both going to love it. It's a game we're probably going to have come Sunday in our competition. So it's nice to see all the trends back up as well. And I see there's just so much pro money coming on this Raiders team. We're not alone here. We're not stepping in, as I should say. So. uh yeah interesting game line um will this keep going down because we talked in our last show it was down to four and a half yeah and then some really smart professional when it came in on the bills and it went back to five and a half a lot of shops so interesting where this number keeps tiling in between or is it doesn't touch six once again so um a game there if you didn't get to five and a half maybe you could be patient here i just i don't know how much more money will come in on this Raiders team where like we talk all the time these late afternoon games The public tends to chase, and that's where so much money comes in late, and you expect this Bills number could potentially get back up to six.
00:45:10
Speaker 1: To your matchup point, don't forget, listeners, the Bills rank 23rd in the league defending the tight end. That's basically what the Raiders' offense is built around, getting the ball from Kirk Cousins to their tight end. So we know the Raiders are going to be on the list for the contest. We got two more games that I want to talk about. One of them is Green Bay hosting Dallas. Green Bay is still a one and a half point favorite. Lots of talk this week. Mike Tomlin has gone after Brian Schottenheimer. Like no recent coach converted into broadcaster has done. He went after him for that play against the Ravens. He went after him because the defense is having a team meeting and he's saying that's not good when Tomlin is going on new heights and Schottenheimer is having to, go and defend it in press conferences. Look, if you want to back a team, the Cowboys are the side to back here. I'm a little surprised the number has sort of locked on at one and a half. I thought it would have moved at least down to one and stuck at one at some point this week, and it hasn't.
00:46:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's another game I thought I would get a ton of calls about, but there's not too much love, honestly, for Green Bay. I think a lot of guys, there's just other games people are going to put their money into and invest in. And I think a lot of people have my same view of this. It's a coin flip game. Honestly, that's what it feels like. It just feels like that Bears-Atlanta game as well, where it's just two teams where I think they're suspect defenses with high-powered offenses. And, you know, all the underlying stats basically say that if Gordon Love's defense gives up, you know, more than 24 points he's gonna lose if he can if their defense holds the Cowboys to under 24 points Jordan Love wins this game basically every time and it's like okay that's basically the easy lazy trends you're gonna look at for this week that if the Cowboys offense shows up performs really well they're gonna win this game it's just the way it is where Jordan Love can do a lot for you but we know the deal like that offensive line they're so bad it's He's going to live and die with those 50-50 balls, Jordan Love. Watson can save them. Golden can have incredible downfield catches. That's not going to hit every week. That's just not the way the league is. Will we get burned by Jordan Love this week if you're backing him and him living and dying with these 50-50 balls? I think you do. I think the Cowboys' defense, as bad as they've looked this year, you expect that front line to keep getting better. They do have two of the top five highest paid D tackles on football. The whole thing just doesn't make sense why it's not. working at all. They just, they went out and got guys. I get their defense is bad, but they should be better than they were last. And they're just simply not. So it is tough. And I get why people are betting into green Bay, but yeah, this was a game. I thought it'd be way more confident and I'm kind of waving a little bit on it where it's still on the Cowboys, but I'm not, not loving too much what I'm seeing on the film of this defense where it's just, they're just bad. And it's like, man, I don't know if I want to invest too much money into a game that just feels like a corn toss here.
00:48:12
Speaker 1: It seems like they have drafted well. You know, that new linebacker from Michigan who took over for Overshawn Barsham, Caleb Downs. You know, Deron Bland has just been terrible since they signed him to that massive contract. So they're constantly shuffling in the secondary. And you're right, those defensive tackles just feel like they don't have any impact. It's a hard team to bet confidently. We were basically saying it's a coin flip game, which is... I'm glad we won't have to make a hard decision on the Cowboys on Sunday. We will have to make a hard decision on the Washington Commanders as seven and a half point underdogs at the 49ers. The Commanders are the sharp side here. You've got a very buy low, sell high game between these two teams. And by the way, you're going to be betting into a defense for the 49ers that is getting healthier because Nick Bosa is probably going to be back. So this is an ugly, ugly thing to do. I don't see anyone really ticket-wise coming in on the Commanders right now. All the tickets are on San Francisco. So... It's going to take some courage. It's going to take some conviction. It might take blindness. It might take ignorance. It might take stupidity to bet on the commanders at seven and a half.
00:49:52
Speaker 2: Another game where I didn't get a ton of calls, maybe because it's the Monday night game and guys just, they're not hitting it as hard as they would because they're so invested in obviously the Thursday night, Saturday slate, and then Sunday. But yeah, another game where I thought honestly, we'd come here today and this would be at seven. I just thought the pros were going to hammer this commander's team because As much respect we give the 49ers, they're technically the best team in football. They've got the best record. Vikings, obviously, are tied with them, but we have different views of this 49ers team compared to the Vikings. Right now, the way we view Brock Purdy, playing at such a high level, his Washington defense has been atrocious. Everybody's been scoring on him. Terrible. We've joked. Dan Quinn, we view both of them as a bottom five coach in this league right now. He doesn't coach a defense well. He doesn't make the right calls in the games. And, yeah, I just– I am shocked this number hasn't moved just because, like we've talked about, Jane Daniels, to me, he's too good to be a 7.5-point dog. And that offense of Washington is too good. And we've seen, as good as this 49ers team has been this year, their defense has also been up and down. Like some days they don't have it defensively. I mean, you saw– Against Seattle, if they didn't have all those horrible turnovers, they were moving the ball pretty well against this 49ers defense. You saw in that Cardinals game, you can say, well, they kind of let them back in the fourth quarter. Yeah, that's fair. But you also saw the Cardinals, for the most part, in most of that game, were able to move the ball against that 49ers defense. So, Commanders, I think they have a better offense than the Cardinals. I think they have a better offense in some ways than Seattle. So, I am shocked this has stayed at the hook. This is another game that's going to be a tough decision come Sunday morning where I could see us talking ourselves into it, but it's also tough to go against the 49ers right now. They're just so good. We both can see it where it's just coaching-wise, Shanahan's on a different planet than Dan Quinn. We know we're leaning into a bad coach with a bad defense right now, but I think we're both hanging our hats on. It's just too many points to give Jaden Daniels. I still believe this number comes down. I just think the pros, once I get to it, they'll bet this number down. Obviously, if it goes up to 8.5, Thank you. That's all I need to know, and I can walk away from this. I don't need to bet the Washington team. But if it goes down, once again, it'll be really hard to avoid this one. If it's 7-6.5 come Sunday morning, it's like, all right, we're spot on with our take about Washington, and we should have put the 7.5 in the contest. So, yeah, this is going to be a really tough, debated game for me.
00:52:24
Speaker 1: It's such a classic spot to bet the Commanders. Can there be a team that, you know, as bad as things went for the Eagles at the end of that game against the Jags, The commanders and their incompetence at the end of the game has completely overshadowed that. And so can there be a team whose perception is worse right now? Even Micah Parsons went on his podcast and started talking about how Jaden Daniels might have cost his man, Dan Quinn, his job, and basically put it all on Jaden Daniels. That he's in his third year now. He's been to an NFC title game. He's supposed to know better. He's supposed to understand the situation better. He needs to know that he has to clock that ball and they need to get to the field goal. Like it couldn't be worse. The vibes for this team are as low as they could possibly be in a season and a half of low vibes. And they couldn't be higher for the Niners. That's exactly when you bet on the interdog. That's when you're getting the value. So I'm a little surprised myself that it hasn't been bet down into seven. Maybe we'll see. Maybe we'll see something by Sunday morning. All right. So not a ton of games that we need to debate between. I think maybe we'll have a conversation about the Bears, the Chargers, New England, Cleveland, Las Vegas, maybe Washington. We'll see how things continue to move over the next 48 hours. Our Discord grouper of the week.
00:53:59
Speaker 2: Buy my book.
00:54:01
Speaker 1: Buy my book.
00:54:02
Speaker 2: Buy my book.
00:54:05
Speaker 1: Simon, you're going to love it this week. You're going to love it. Join the Discord. Pre-order my book, The Number, at readthenumber.com. Help us raise money for St.
00:54:13
Speaker 2: Jude's.
00:54:14
Speaker 1: Don't forget Chad's Book Club. You're ordering 10 books. I might come to your town. I'll do a Zoom with whoever you order the books for, sharp or square at the volume. Send me your proof of purchase. Those have been a blast. People have been donating books to friends. I'm donating books on their behalf to libraries. If you're ordering the 10 books, that's also a good way to get involved. SharperSquare at thevolume.com. Simon, the winner this week is the Cleveland Browns at plus five and a half. I put the submissions in for ideas of what we should vote on. On Tuesday after the show, an avalanche of support came in for the Cleveland Browns, which I had not initially included. The whole team wanted to go with Simon Says, even to the point where 30 minutes before we recorded the show, I reminded everybody, right now we are living and dying with the Cleveland Browns. Get your votes in if you don't like that. And more people came in to vote for the Cleveland Browns. A lot of support for you in the discord that you despise on the Cleveland Browns. People want to back you, Simon. They want to back Simon Says.
00:55:38
Speaker 2: I hope it comes through. I'm with him on it. It's always nerve-wracking, Ben, against Lamar. All right.
00:55:45
Speaker 1: Underdog, round robin, parlay.
00:55:49
Speaker 2: My dog likes your dog.
00:55:52
Speaker 1: Your dog likes my dog. Can we do the Raiders?
00:55:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to do the Raiders.
00:55:59
Speaker 1: Was that a yawn?
00:56:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm hurting right now. I'm hurting. Do Raiders. I mean... Cleveland? Okay. I was going to say, that's ballsy. I was going to get real ballsy. Should we do plus 330, take Washington?
00:56:14
Speaker 1: I think we do have to do Washington or the Chargers.
00:56:18
Speaker 2: Can't do Chargers. I told you, my home's a 16-1 in this exact spot.
00:56:21
Speaker 1: All right. So Las Vegas, Cleveland, Washington, Houston....
00:56:28
Speaker 2: We usually, I think we only do three for dogs.
00:56:31
Speaker 1: We did five.
00:56:32
Speaker 2: Yeah. But that's like a, that's like a week when there's a bunch of two and a half. So we like this. We're not, we're not too crazy about a bunch of two and a half.
00:56:38
Speaker 1: How about our favorites?
00:56:40
Speaker 2: Favorites. It's actually pretty good. If you're doing like, we don't have to do teasers like we did last week. Like if you want to do Pittsburgh, you want to do Chicago, Carolina, you can do the saints. Like, like there's a bunch of really nice short favorites you can throw in.
00:56:58
Speaker 1: You could do all lines with the Rams and Chiefs.
00:57:01
Speaker 2: Right, that's what I was going to say. Rams, Chiefs, we already talked about the Colts against Tennessee. Patriots, obviously, I gave out that stat. Drake May, a favorite of three plus points or more. I think he's 14-0 straight up in his career. I mean, you can't ask for much. That's probably the best in NFL history, like someone starting their career that way. Yeah. usually the big favorite you, you have one or two stinkers. Drake may does not lay eggs apparently. So, um, yeah, there's a lot of ways you can go this week. Um, it's up to you, Chad, you want to do a short favorites. You want to do big favorites.
00:57:35
Speaker 1: I would say, let's do a little combination. Let's do Pittsburgh. Um, let's do Chicago. Uh, I like that number of one and a half. And then I would say, let's do the Rams. Uh, I don't know. My seven.
00:57:53
Speaker 2: Well, you, If you're betting them down, you can't tie in teasers, obviously. So I would either try to get 6.5 or 5.5.
00:58:00
Speaker 1: All right, let's do Rams minus 5.5.
00:58:05
Speaker 2: I don't know how these shops are, but back in the day, you weren't able to push on teaser legs. I don't know what that is now because I know you can– it's not like teasers anymore. People can just adjust the number and the align. So I think no matter what, you have to do half a point no matter what.
00:58:20
Speaker 1: Let's do Pittsburgh, Chicago, Rams minus 5.5. Uh, biggest bets. Where are we at? Pull up those pants and be a man.
00:58:27
Speaker 2: I mean, right now I'm like Raiders.
00:58:31
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:58:31
Speaker 2: Like I bet having that, I mean, shockingly, my, my biggest bet probably is the chargers right now.
00:58:37
Speaker 1: Wow.
00:58:38
Speaker 2: I know I hate it, but it's just, it's just, I'm so worried about the eight and a half disappearing. I've just been betting it really heavy.
00:58:44
Speaker 1: Um, it sneaks up on you, huh?
00:58:46
Speaker 2: Yeah. it's just, it's just changed where I used to have to bet a thousand every shop and just do a bunch of crap. Now where I can just go on play market. If I want to bet 50 K poly market, we'll take it. It's just times have changed now. So yeah, just sit here right now. I guess. Yeah. My, my two biggest bets are crazy enough for this 4pm games, Raiders and chargers. But I can see, I can see myself betting more into Cleveland. I've, just been waiting to see if it does get to six. And same with the Patriots. If it got back down to six and a half or seven, I'll bet more in the Patriots. But yeah, as we're sitting here right now, I've only really bet big into two games.
00:59:19
Speaker 1: Sharp versus Square. We both won last week. We had both won the week before. No, I had won the week before. You had lost. Last week you had Detroit. I had Houston. So Simon says it's Cleveland. And Chad's choice was the Raiders. Brass Balls is the Chargers. I feel like it pains me to say it. I think I'm going with the Bears, minus one and a half. Who do you got?
00:59:48
Speaker 2: I guess. You know what I'll do? I'll do Pittsburgh just so I can give out this stat. Okay. Cobbles. 4-10 against the spread in his career against the NFC North. He's 0-7 against the spread in his career as a Bucs head coach against the AFC North. He's never covered against the AFC North in his career. So, yeah, even better. If the team's above. 500, Todd Bowles facing the AFC North, he's 0-4, straight up 0-4 against the spread, failing to cover by seven points per game. So I'll take Pittsburgh at the minus two and a half.
01:00:23
Speaker 1: I'm so glad.
01:00:24
Speaker 2: I'm so glad.
01:00:25
Speaker 1: I'm so glad we did not talk about that game. Cause I, my head is twisted on that because it feels like the bucks are the side, but I don't, you know, I don't like Todd Bowles and I feel like the Steelers offense is getting better. It's a tricky game. All right. You're on, you're on the Steelers minus two and a half. Who's our survivor. We've used Pittsburgh. We use Tampa, Kansas city, Minnesota, Houston. We knocked ourselves out with Tampa.
01:00:49
Speaker 2: So yeah, we've, we've had a nice run with, um, Betting against Miami teams, like in my Survivor Bowls, I at least have. This week, no Miami. Bye, week.
01:00:57
Speaker 1: No Miami.
01:00:59
Speaker 2: I mean, we can die with it. We can die with the Colts, which is just the obvious spot to take here. At home against Tennessee, you know, after a really bad loss against Pittsburgh, you just– Shane's not going to save his season, right? You can't lose this game if you have any ambition to at least finish 500 and maybe make the playoffs. So that one jumps out to me. risky pick. If you want to go super safe, I gave you that Drake Mays stat. Drake Mays 14 and 0 in his career as a three plus, uh, favorite or more. So you want to take them against the jets. It's in the, it's, if you want to use it here, not save them at home against Miami, you can go for it. That's the only reason I'm not using new England. So I'm just saving them or one of my favorite thing in the world, but against Miami right now. So, um, yeah, Colts, Colts, the risky play, but I think it's, I think it's safe for the spot. It is, um, It's just a nice spot for the Colts team.
01:01:51
Speaker 1: All right, Colts are going to be our survivor. That is our show. Simon and I will return Sunday morning with our final NFL Week 6 bets for the $ 25, 000 Pro Football Pick'Em Contest. Sign up now at SharperSquared at TheVolume.com to join. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Sunday at 11 a.m. Eastern Live. Love you.
01:02:36
Speaker 2: What do you think those fans in Milwaukee are thinking right now? They're drinking. They're drinking for sure.