NFL WEEK 6 BETS: Seahawks-Broncos, Bears-Falcons and more

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Pilot Market. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hartar. Hello, Simon.
00:00:23
Speaker 2: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:25
Speaker 1: Dude, we're three and two. in the contest this past week. As you know, I had a crazy weekend. I'm going to tell two stories from it. I think you're going to appreciate it. Not be happy about it, but appreciate.
00:00:39
Speaker 2: One of them.
00:00:40
Speaker 1: So I was going through the Philly airport yesterday afternoon, me and my wife, and we were the only people in the security line. We get to the front, the guy checks my ID, shuffles us through, and then I hear him say, after I walk away, To the guy next to him, he goes, man, I swear to God this happened. Eagles trading at 52% against the Panthers. I said to him, what are you looking at? He goes, I'm looking at Polymarket. He goes, I don't like it. And I told him, well, I already bet the Panthers. He goes, well, you're getting a deal on that one. Later that day, my wife and I are waiting for the flight. And I got one of those credit cards where you get the lounge access and stuff. So we're in the American Airlines lounge and I'm sitting close enough to the front desk. This woman in the American Airlines outfit, tight, blonde bun, looking very proper and appropriate. I hear her say to her colleague sitting next to her in this thick, thick Philly accent, one second. One second. One second. They put one second on the clock. We lose that game. This was more than 24 hours later, Simon. And it was devastating to walk through that Philly airport and hear people still talking about that game.
00:02:11
Speaker 2: All I heard was you had a chance to tell the guy the Panthers are a trap. I'm chalk as hell betting the Panthers. And he didn't. That's all I heard from that story.
00:02:20
Speaker 1: Didn't say that. We will get to that. He did look at me with disgust. I will say that. Like many Eagles fans are looking at Nick Sirianni right now.
00:02:30
Speaker 2: All right. Great win by the Bears this week, Chad. Let's keep it moving. Wow.
00:02:36
Speaker 1: I always forget, like, these things linger for you. These things linger for you.
00:02:42
Speaker 2: Anyway, I know you're taking joy in my Eagles being miserable now. What is the point of this story, Chad? Yes, it's horrible right now in Philadelphia. What are you doing? What is this?
00:02:49
Speaker 1: It's terrible. It's terrible.
00:02:51
Speaker 2: The Bears are terrible. Let's keep it moving.
00:02:53
Speaker 1: I can feel it. I felt it in all of Philadelphia yesterday. This is our Tuesday NFL.
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Speaker 2: It's rough.
00:03:01
Speaker 1: It's rough. This is our Tuesday NFL Week 6 show. You will hear our Chad's choice. You will hear our Simon Says. We will review the entire slate for our free $ 25, 000 pro football pick-em contest. Sign up, SharperSquare.com. dot the volume dot com. You can get our shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe and like this video while you are at it. You can follow us on Insta, TikTok, X, and subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify. Simon, before we get into it, I do want to give it up for Benny Oliver from Nebraska. He emailed me last week with a proposition bet. Might've been my biggest, my biggest one of the weekend. He said, if the Huskers beat the Hoosiers outright, I have to go to Nebraska and buy 10 books for him and his friends. Even though, quote, he said, I honestly don't know if our group can even read because we're such degenerates. If the Hoosiers won, he'd buy 10 books and donate the ones he can't find any friends to give to. As you know, Simon, I was in Columbus this weekend. Matt Mitchell, I want you to throw up this video right now. While this was happening, my kid, my kid's friend, they were in the middle of that mosh pit. This is where I watched IU pull out a last-minute win against Nebraska. So I am not going to Nebraska to visit Benny Oliver. But to his credit, Benny emailed me. He's buying the books. He's going to donate to St.
00:04:54
Speaker 2: Jude's.
00:04:56
Speaker 1: I'm going to donate books on his behalf. Anybody who wants to join the book clubs, email sharporsquareatthevolume.com. You buy 10 books. You can donate books. I'll donate books on your behalf. I'll try to get to your town or at least do a Zoom with your book club. We're doing a bunch of these now. It's been really fun. sharporsquareatthevolume.com.
00:05:18
Speaker 2: All right.
00:05:19
Speaker 1: Nice job, Benny O. I love that his pitch turned into that. Thursday Night Football. Seattle at Denver. Denver is now plus three. It moved from two and a half to three between Sunday night show and Monday. On the prediction markets, it's still at two and a half, but way more expensive to back Seattle. Broncos offense just looks terrible. First half this year, Denver scored 23 points total across five games. Simon, in the fourth quarter, the average more than 10 points, 14, 14, 11, and 13 the past four weeks. I don't know, man. I know why the numbers move in because no one has any faith in what the Broncos can do on offense.
00:06:07
Speaker 2: Yeah. Why did the books open this up? Minus two and a half. It's very, very bizarre move by the books where it's just who's back in the Broncos. Anyone that bet the Broncos last week, like we did, you feel like you got away with one and it's going to be hard to get those people back to the window to bet them again. Um, but yeah, three and a half. Now that's the way poly market's going to go. That's, that's going to be the number to play. I mean, Seattle, great defense, the road. I mean, they're great on the road has favorites. We gave out, you know, all those Mike McDonald lines. I mean, obviously fell apart with Washington, but you expect him to get the guys to bounce back. Now they've, they've had some just bad games to start this year. And it's really been about the quarterback play. They're just getting turnovers. Right. And even in that game, they, as much love as we're giving Purdy because of that last drive, for most of that game, they held him in check. They just could not stop turning the ball over Seattle. So it's pretty simple, right? If they don't turn the ball over, they'll probably beat Denver here. I mean, probably handily. I mean, just look at that Broncos offense, how lost they look. But I'll ride with the books, I guess. I don't feel great about it. But the fact that it's up three and a half, that's where it's going in Polymark. That's where I'll end up. But if you want to pay the juice in the two and a half with Seattle, I can't fault you for it. It's just... I can see both Sadra and I and why people are betting it, but I don't think it's shocked either of us. The professionals and the public just came in right away on Seattle. As bad as they've looked, their corrections are easy. We're watching Bo Nix back. It just feels like there's so much wrong with the Broncos' offense right now. Really tricky game to play where it's going to be at 3.5, I assume, for most people when they see this, or at 3.0. I don't know how many people are going to be playing the Broncos. It just feels like it's going to be all Seattle money come Thursday night.
00:07:53
Speaker 1: Seattle's been an interesting team the past two weeks. They let the Chargers back in it. They had a shitload of penalties against the Chargers. They ended up with the backdoor cover. Last week, what was it? Two fumbles inside the 10, another at the goal line. San Francisco's up eight. And the Seahawks still had a chance to cover that game. Mike Evans just went off at the end of the game. That was really the difference. Seattle's just shooting themselves in the foot right now. Houston at versus Jacksonville. I say at, it's really versus. 9.30 Eastern from London, Sunday morning. Very interesting game. Are the Texans ascendant right now? Did we see some weaknesses in how the Eagles were able to limit the Jags? Or was it just Jalen Carter going off? Does any of it matter? Are the Jags just the more complete team than either the Texans or the Eagles at this point? Their pass rushers create havoc. They're among the best in the league in scoring defense and stopping the run. The only thing that the Jags haven't been great at is keeping quarterbacks in check from throwing for a ton of passing yards, but that doesn't matter. The Texans, they can't really convert in the red zone because they don't have a rushing game. It's likely going to three. Tickets are on the Jags. Slightly more money on the Jags. At some point, I want to be in the Texans, but I haven't gotten to that point yet. I think I'm waiting for the number to move a little bit.
00:09:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought last week was good for the Jags. They were just getting so much hype. I mean, you had people going on TV saying they were the best team in football. We're Everyone laughs at them because it is such a stupid statement. They have not earned a single thing, especially Trevor Lawrence, to be considered the best team in football. And you saw it against the Eagles. Their things are exposed still with this Jaguars team. Like Chad said, you can pass on them. They really, as great as Travis hunters looked overall the rest of the cornerbacks have still gotten beaten by i mean essentially a couple teams have beat them with backups so um i like the jacks just because it felt like they stole one last week right if there wasn't the new kickoff rules i mean we just we have all nfl history and data look back teams never win with seven or eight seconds left and now we've got weeks of it happening because the league has just changed so much with these kickoff rules and these kickers are so good. So I mean, we talked about last week that I was on the Jaguars until it got above six and a half. That's when, once I got to seven and a half with the Eagles, it was like, okay, now the values on the Eagles, even in that game, you were like, man, this, this Jack's team, they're not going to cover teasers. They're going to lose this game outright. And they did cover the teaser, which again, we talked, it's a miracle. Like that game, anyone knows that bets teasers, you're deader than dead with that minus one and a half. And, incredible, incredible field goals. So, yeah, the Texans, they might have looked better last week. That game, everything went right. On the flip side, the Jags team, everything just felt like it was going wrong. They just, from the get-go, right, that kickoff return got called back on some holding penalty. And that could be something we're overlooking with this Jags team. Maybe we're not saying enough about the penalties. Like you said, it's every week that feels like they're averaging 10 penalties a game. And, I mean, even last night, the Rams– Bills game, both sides, I feel like had 10 penalties each. So maybe that's just the way the NFL is and we shouldn't overrate it. But if the Texans win this game, it feels like it'll be just what we talk about this Jags team. They're the better team, but it's them having their own sloppy mistakes, making their own mistakes. And two and a half, I won't lie, I'm tempted here. I can't help it. It's under a field goal. I'll take the Jags. I think they are just a better team, but we see the roadmap for Houston, right? Like you said, Jalen Carter up the middle, dominating the, They move around Will Anderson. They move all these guys in different positions. They'll get theirs against Trevor. We know that, right? Especially some injuries the Jags have had up front. A game where I felt confident Sunday night, honestly, we were looking at the lines and I was like, oh, that's going to be a good number on that Jaguars team. Now I am wavering a little bit where I can see why there is Houston love professionally because like Chad said, this was three. Now it's down to two and a half on most markets. Interesting number line.
00:12:12
Speaker 1: If the Texans win this game, this is a text from my buddy Mike Schiffman. If the Texans win this game, they then have a stretch. Giants, Chargers, Browns, Colts. So all of a sudden, they've got a path to being a team that could be five and four, you know?
00:12:34
Speaker 2: I respect your friend, but I view all those teams the same as the Texans.
00:12:37
Speaker 1: You do.
00:12:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know. It's crazy, but their offensive line is so perfect. The Texans' offense line is so bad. They can't run the ball. So if you can just– CJ, he has been better this year, but you've seen him– I mean, those games against good teams, he did struggle. And those guys, all those teams you went through, they're not great teams, but they are teams that have had success in the fourth quarter, something you can't say about this Houston team. So I get what he's saying. I agree. They could easily flip this season around, but it's also– if I'm those other teams, like if I'm a Giants fan, it's like, well, the Texans are beautiful, right? It's like you can lie to yourself and say Jameis– As up and down as it is, he's been passing against these teams, and we've seen Houston be able to be passed on. So I am like you. I'm trying to adjust my view on the Texans because I was just so high on that defense coming into this year. And they did it last week, but none of us take Cam Ward serious. So that's what's so hard. I'm trying not to overreact to last week. And you expect Trevor Lawrence to do what other teams have done, pass well against this Texas team. So, yeah, it's tough.
00:13:37
Speaker 1: Chicago at Atlanta, the Falcons are now three and a half point dogs. You mentioned this on Sunday night, grab the bears at minus one and a half before the Falcons Ravens game. I mean, Sunday night was a debacle for us and the Falcons. You had been betting the Falcons at plus numbers and then short favorites. Second game of the day for us, along with the commanders that we are covering a game with a minute to go and end up losing. in overtime. Michael Penix looked just devastated on the bench after the game, during the game, when Tua has to come in because of what is some kind of injury to his side or his ribs. Status this week is uncertain. Are the Bears getting Tua in the exact right spot to bounce back from a Packers drubbing Are we getting a Caleb to a matchup? Cause Caleb could be coming back. He was questionable last week. At what point is the resistance on the bears Falcons game?
00:14:43
Speaker 2: Yeah. And brutal last week, a lot of pros who I talked to had the Jags minus two and a half, like really hit that heavy early. And just like me hit Atlanta plus three and a half early and two and a half early. Cause we talk all the time. Things have changed. Now these poly market, I'm not limited to a thousand dollars per shop. So, hurt brutal like as soon as they got that two-pointer it's like oh god there's they're not even gonna cover this uh this field goal they're gonna lose by a touchdown aren't they in overtime and that's exactly what happened so yeah brutal for Atlanta right their defense had done semi-good the whole game and then just kind of got exhausted at the end there and fell apart and um I mean Tua we said he's finished right and there's there's nothing more this guy's finished and a guy who comes on the field, throws a pick, and then he so quickly jogged off the field ahead to the tunnel. It was such a bad look of like, this guy literally came in and I feel like in his mind did his job and now he's jogging off the field like his night's over. I would just be so sick if I was a Atlanta fan, right? If Pennix wasn't made out of glass, they could be one of the better teams in football. You've seen when he's playing well and they're doing well offensively, they just need a quarterback. They're just a team that's That's all that's missing there. I mean, the weapons they have offensively, the scheme they run offensively. The offensive line is great, too, for Falcons. So, yeah, another line worth three and a half. If it's Pennix, maybe I can be talking to the Falcons. If it's Tua, like, give me seven and a half. Maybe I'll think about the Falcons. This guy doesn't look like he can pick up first downs. Like, maybe he'll have a fluky one-off to Drake London because Drake London is so good. But Tua is going to throw you 50-50 balls, medicine balls, all the horrible things you don't want over the middle. constantly like he's just so inconsistent um yeah i i really can't believe that this number moved the way it did though because we don't know yet with caleb so no even if it is the backup i know badgen looked bad last week i still would still take him here um him or case keenum like it's just i don't think it's that big of a deal at this point so yeah if you can get two and a half at polymarket sure but if it is three and a half i i would wait to see if it what what the news is on caleb like if it's caleb I got no– Caleb versus Tua, sure, no problem taking the minus three and a half. But this is– if it is Tua, this will definitely be the biggest– one of the bigger public sides of the week on the Bears, right? Everyone expects the Bears to bounce back. It was just such an outlier game last week against Green Bay. And, you know, we've seen this Falcons team. With Pennix, they're a different team. With a backup in Tua or Rush, they're not– I mean, they can't move the ball offensively. We have the numbers through the first two weeks of the season. So, yeah, brutal, brutal if you're a Falcons fan.
00:17:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, when Penix is on, the one thing Penix can't do, or at least struggles with, and this costs them in the game, he has a really hard time with those short touch passes. And it happened a few times in the game. Sometimes they get knocked down, he doesn't get the right height on them, or they're short. He had that opportunity to convert late in the game with two minutes left to get it to Bijan and just couldn't quite get enough distance on the pass, falling back to Bijan. Bijan catches that. They're running for the first down. The game's over. And as soon as that happened, I'm like, we're going to get snooped here. That whole thing, I think anybody who bet on the Falcons saw that unfolding exactly the way it did. Simon, Baltimore at Cleveland. Cleveland is currently a four and a half point underdog. Do you have something you'd like to say?
00:18:27
Speaker 2: Simon Says, give me the Browns plus four and a half.
00:18:30
Speaker 1: Simon Says, presented by Polymarket. The Cleveland Browns trading at four and a half on Polymarket. I think it's around 51%. Tricky one. I think it's priced because people expect Lamar to be coming back. I'm with you. I want to bet the Browns here. It's the right spot. We like the Browns at home. We like the Browns when they're underdogs. Lamar is a different player in the AFC North than he is, say, when he's playing outside the division. What's your theory here?
00:19:09
Speaker 2: Love the matchup, right? Divisional foe. And one team is coming off an incredible win, having a great week where the Browns, they kind of let a game go. They should have beat the Jets. They did. And they just had so much bad luck. that that's another reason how they really pop up in my mind of, okay, people are going to be super down on them, but they just had bad luck, right? They had these random fumbles in this bad weather last week, and we talked about that. Browns' line was just very fishy, a trappy line last week against the Jets. General public is always going to overrate those kind of things, right? They're going to think, well, it is the same old Browns. They're just a bad team. They kind of had a fluke run to start the season. I don't think things have changed, even in that game, defensively, Watson still had a chance in the fourth quarter to lead them down the field and win the game. And I feel like we'll have the same opportunity once again, where the Browns, I think all year, they're just going to be in these tight games. They're just a competitive team. They don't have any give up. And like Chad said, they are better at home. We just see they are better at home in front of those fans. And We don't obviously know what the weather is supposed to be like yet. The Northeast might have a bad low coming down that might bring a ton of weather from Canada. It might be really cold. This game could be in the 40s or 50s, which is expected at this time of the year up by the Great Lakes. I also think that would benefit them if it is a bad weather game. This Ravens team, as much as you want to say they can push the ball downfield, you saw with Snoop, right? It was a lot of underneath stuff. Once they got desperate, they started pushing the ball more downfield, but If it is Snoop, you expect him more underneath. And if it's Lamar, you now have Lamar playing on a bad ankle. So that's already one-dimensional Lamar. It's no longer Lamar going to be breaking out, running the ball up the field. So that's another reason I kind of sneakily like the Browns, where I think people are going to be betting on this one, especially if Lamar comes back. I don't think they realize it's Lamar rushing back a little bit, right? It's not that he doesn't love seeing Snoop win that game, but any competitive guy is going to see that game and be like, man, I that should have been me. I got to get back on the field. I got to lead these guys. So yeah, I really like the Browns here at home.
00:21:11
Speaker 1: They're surprisingly competitive. And you're right about Deshaun. That game against the Jets, and we'll talk about the Jets and the Patriots, the Jets' pass rush just went off. It was sort of the best performance they had all season long. David Bailey was insane at the end of that game. But there were a couple spots where Deshaun just missed them and missed players. And if he doesn't, It's a different game. It was a weather game. It was an ugly, miserable game. The Jets were lucky to get away with one. The Browns easily could have come out of that and been rated all of a sudden as one of the better records in the NFL or in the AFC heading into this game with the Ravens. I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well, and you wanted to cash out, they lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all, and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guys that are giving you a free $ 25 in your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat pics together every Sunday. in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Pittsburgh is visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The number is three. It opened at two and a half. Simon, do you know who has the most passing touchdowns in the NFL the past three weeks?
00:23:01
Speaker 2: Is it not Jared Goff? It's Aaron Rodgers?
00:23:05
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has nine. He's tied for fourth overall with 10. Goff leads the NFL with 12. It's funny. You look at the stats for most touchdown passes, and it's like Jared Goff with 12. Joe Burrow with 11. Kirk Cousins, I think, has 12. Aaron Rodgers has Has 10, like all these guys who people have been out on in some respects, you don't realize it from their team's records, but the old timers coming out of nowhere and just slinging touchdown passes. You love the Steelers last week against Indy. It's a very chalky play to play the Steelers on the field. I like that the Bucs' run D has been top five across multiple metrics. Steelers' rush offense, they do a lot of play action, but the Steelers' rush offense has basically been middle of the pack during this run when Rodgers has gone off. It's actually not as much as an edge as I thought it would be based on how the Steelers have been playing. It's going to be so chalky to play the Steelers here. but do I want to back Jalen Daniels again? Like that feels like I'm going to the well one time too many with this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.
00:24:36
Speaker 2: Yeah. And what's, what's funny about all those QB stats you gave out, it's just definitely just shows like that traditional pocket passer. That's it's dying, right? Like Joe Burrow is the odd man in that group. He's not an old man. Who's a pocket that can't run, you know, Jared golf. He's not by no measure, an old man, but he's never been a running quarterback. So, um, yeah, that we saw it. Like I said, with the case kingdom came in, you saw that old breed, like case game, same age as Matthew Stafford, that old lineage that we had from the mid two thousands on of these pocket passers. It just looks different, right? It's we're a little nostalgic of it because the league has changed so much where, you know, there, we love it, right? We love these mobile quarterbacks, but these guys all want to pull it down so fast where you watch these guys, a Kirk, all these guys, they hang in there and they take those big hits and, Cause there is no running option. They're going to either pass this ball out to a guy in the flat and take a huge hit, or they're just going to eat the sack. They're just, it's definitely funny watching the older guys and Rogers this year does look better offensively. I mean, you've seen it play out where, you know, we've had a couple of games. You bet on him. He looked lost and they lost, but other games where these played well, he looks really confident and comfortable this often. So, um it's another game a game out sunday night where it's like i'm gonna take the bucks plus three i think they're applying market they're plus three and a half now they're down to two and a half of most shops now so it's like maybe i'm still gonna give out the bucks later this week i gotta talk to other pros and see if people are still comfortable betting that number is this a trap game for pittsburgh walking into this one i mean they had such an incredible win against the colts but i told you all the stats like basically they just own the colts doesn't matter who the pittsburgh quarterback is and who the quarterback is of the Colts it's just never a good matchup with the Colts and that travel you saw that really affected them right that second half the Colts just looked sluggish like playing after England no bye week on the road it's tough I mean you saw that last week with them it is a really tough scenario and same could be said for Washington they looked sluggish in that fourth quarter and they gave up all those yards the Giants so is Pittsburgh a little overrated right now that's we have to think that's That's my question here. I get why you're hesitant to back the Bucs and these young quarterback, but I don't even think they played that perfect of a game against Dallas. I think they're just the better team, honestly. Like they just, Bucky Irving could run whenever he wanted, whenever they needed him to pick up third down, you know, Daniels was able to do that against the Cowboys. Steelers defense, obviously much better defense than Cowboys, but you've seen them struggle against mobile quarterbacks. So I get why the pros are betting the Bucs again. So I'm just, Not shocked to see the public coming in heavy on the Steelers. If it stays two and a half and we come in Sunday and it's 70% of the bets is on the Steelers, I think we'll both laugh and be like, okay, this is a Tampa number, a Tampa spot. So, yeah, I'm interested to see what people do with this number. I want it to get back up to three, three and a half. That's where I feel comfortable betting the bucks. But two and a half, I'll keep waiting.
00:27:40
Speaker 1: The previously mentioned New York Jets are at the New England Patriots. The line is seven and a half. Patriots are favored by seven and a half. It's interesting number. The wise guys took the jets at seven and a half on Sunday night is moved down to seven, went back up to seven and a half. Pats are a huge, huge public side. And Drake may is on a heater right now, right? Like five, you know, I think he's got something like seven, eight touchdown passes the past two weeks, five total touchdowns against the Raiders the other day, the jets pass rush, as I mentioned, really starting to get after it. Uh, and what's interesting is there was so much talk about the Patriots offensive line the first couple of weeks of the year. And we were victims of sort of prejudice against this offensive line. Pass rush has been, pass protection has been really good the past three weeks. They gave up six sacks the first two weeks, only five the past three, only two the past two games. Could be one of the reasons why Drake, Drake, May, May has been playing so much better, and Simon, A.J. Brown has a, quote, chance, end quote, to return this week. It's very public to want to play the Patriots. But at some point, do they become the juggernaut that they were?
00:29:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we talked, though, that Drake May is a big favorite. It's been very profitable to people. So you can say it's a very public side, but it's also– I know pros who they follow and they only bet trends. They've been backing Drake May in this exact spot, and it's been very popular with them. Just looking at last year, these two teams played. I want to say the Jets were like a plus 13 or plus 14 dog. They lost like 42 to 10. The Patriots absolutely blew them out. Then the time they played before that, the same thing. The Patriots were like a 12 point favorite beat them 27 13 or 27 14 so I just remember those games last year just because it was both same thing we're trying to talk ourselves in the jets and it's like you don't want to get in front of the Patriots right now with Drake May last year that's how it felt this year I don't mind getting in front of the Patriots right like yeah their defense played well but You know, they had a bunch of injuries. I mean, they had Campbell got knocked out of the game. I think Trevion Henderson got knocked out of the game. And Drake, four passing, one rushing touchdown, whatever it was. He just– incredible day by Drake Mays. So, I do want to fade that. It's like you expect them to have a letdown here. But you're right. To me, this moved by another half point back up because it's most likely Adrian Brown's coming back this week. So, yeah, maybe I'll just do the same thing I did last week. A lot of those big favorites, just throw them in a teaser. It's just– Will the Patriots lose this game to the Jets? I'd honestly be shocked. I just think, especially coaching matchup-wise, Aaron Glenn has been better this year, but it just feels like, you know, Bravos, just such a better coach. You'll just have these guys way more prepared in the sense that Patriots know how to handle wins. The Jets, I don't know how much they can handle success. Like, that was a big win. Gina Smith's going to be feeling himself this week after that win. Blah, blah, blah. I don't know. I can see all these red flags of this Jets team and just the books that are begging, begging, begging for Jets money right now. Like Chad said, got the seven off professional money, went right back up seven and a half. And now it's just been sitting there for 24 hours. So we'll see on Thursday. Maybe I'll more of a pin on it. But right now as you sit here, I'm leaning more towards taking the Patriots side than I am taking the Jets.
00:31:09
Speaker 1: I'm glad to hear you say that. So am I. I do have one question. I haven't seen anything about Christian Gonzalez yet. Will he be back? Because Gino has been semi-successful in throwing the ball downfield. No update yet on Christian Gonzalez for this weekend. It didn't matter against the Raiders.
00:31:32
Speaker 2: It was a game-time decision though, right? So maybe he is that close, but you're right. I haven't seen anything yet this week to say he's going to play, but if it's the type of deal where they know they're going to roll this Jets team, it's more likely he doesn't play right. They want to get him right. They don't want to keep rushing this kid back. So I think last week there may be a little more desperate because the Raiders were viewed as a better team. Maybe it's not the same with the Jets.
00:31:57
Speaker 1: All right. One more game before I get to my belittling. New Orleans at the New York Giants. You went out on a limb on Sunday night after you named Tyler Shock your shame, shame, shame of the week that we should think about taking the New Orleans Saints as one and a half point underdogs. The line is now flipped. we always like it. We can get, get on the underdog side before the flip. Why the move? Why are people coming in on the saints? Is it because it just can't get any worse than it did with way Tyler shock performed on Sunday?
00:32:34
Speaker 2: A little bit of that, right? You're going from playing the best defense on football to a mid tier, lower level type of defense in this giants team. And, um, I told you my biggest thing issue with Shuck though, is it doesn't make sense why he's not using his legs. I even went back and rewatched the tape. He had openings. He just was always trying to take the throw where it was, it was just bizarre where it's like, if they're blitzing you and the whole C's part up in the middle, you're one-on-one with a linebacker who's coming downhill of you. Usually you can make that guy either jump or whatever it is. I just, I just thought it was very bizarre that Shuck didn't have a single rush last week. And, We've seen with this Giants team, he needs to use his legs. The Giants, as good as their defense is, they're terrible against mobile quarterbacks. I mean, like I still can't believe they came back in the game. So I think this line flipped just because the Giants, as lucky as they've been, they're not that– like I keep saying, they're not that good. Like they've had injuries across the board, and they've just been very fortunate. You could say it's a hardball effect, right? They're winning these one-score games or being competitive, and I agree. It's– Coaching does matter in those senses. So I was like you, though. I was shocked this number was flipped because most people I've talked to, it's all Giants bets. It's all Giants money. So that wasn't me. I bet this for a penny. Some very smart group came in and bet heavy on that Saints side, and every shop followed suit. Everyone flipped. So yeah, interesting number to watch. Will the Giants flip it back? Because it's just going to be I would be shocked any public better doesn't just hammer the shine side. People just hate the saints. Now everyone, including professionals are so bitter at this team. Cause I told you, it was just watching that game. The Vikings were begging for them to steal it. I mean, you're up seven, six and a half and your defense gets a defensive touchdown. And the saints just, like we said, they're just a bad team. So that's why I'm trying to talk myself out of it. Cause every week I know we're going to be getting value on the saints and I can't be sucked into it where it's like, Maybe there is no value. Maybe they're just a terrible team, and Shuck is not that good of a quarterback. So it's a type of game where Shuck, if he is good, he's a starter in this league, you have to bounce back here. So, yeah, interesting to see, though. Like Chad said, the line flip, and that's a lot of professional money. I didn't realize that it flipped until we got on here because when I checked it really early this morning, like 3 a.m., it was still Saints as a dog. So that's the last 12 hours that numbers moved. Yeah.
00:35:07
Speaker 1: Carolina at Philly. Carolina, plus one and a half.
00:35:12
Speaker 2: Philly justice. Welcome to Philly, bitch.
00:35:16
Speaker 1: For the record, when I told the guy I was betting the Panthers at plus one and a half, he looked at me with the same level of disgust that you have been looking at me and shouting me out since I mentioned this game on Sunday night. It's a sucker's bet. Most of the tickets are on the Eagles right now. Are you saying it's a sucker's bet because it was such a bad loss? Are you saying it's a sucker's bet because it's a short dog that is the Panthers? Where is the suckery coming in here?
00:35:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a game we're going to come in Sunday morning. It's going to be 90% of the bets, 90% of the money is on Carolina.
00:35:59
Speaker 1: You think so?
00:36:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could move. Like the Eagles, maybe they get Saquon Barkley back and maybe that'll make people pause. But... They don't have an– Eagles don't have an offensive line. They might not even have a head coach. Like, there's just– I can't see any reason why the general public come in and bet them. On the flip side, Carolina has looked good this year. Their OC they hired has looked great. I mean, their offense has been really good. Like, Bryce Young is really good. They're coming off a bye week. Eagles are coming back from England. I just talked to them. We saw two different teams look very sluggish in the fourth quarter. So, this is the type of game where I'll join you on the Panthers and I'll bet them in a teaser or something like that. But plus one and a half, it's just– summer should probably be three like the Eagles they're supposed to win this game like this type of game where it's their season on the line Carolina doesn't have that feel to them they're not going to be this desperate desperate team and I know people can say well that's overrated it's not you saw last week against the Jaguars Jaguars are a better team than Eagles the Eagles just are not healthy you saw how desperate how hard the Eagles played especially that first half when Jalen Carter was playing out of his mind in that first half so We've seen this Panthers defense, man. They're bad. They are a bad defense. Yes, against Detroit, they got three and outs and they got turnovers. That's why they won that game. Eagles, they're just a bad second-half team. All the numbers are so terrible. Potentially the worst second-half team in the history of the NFL. The underlying data is insane. In the last 20 years, they're the 800th rated team in the fourth quarter. it's it's truly insane that's what hurts having a fourth quarter comeback and wins that's how bad it is with this team in the second half so panthers to me like i've been doing a lot of live betting it's another team where i've been doing a lot of the eagles eagles get out in these first half leads and you just bet the team that's playing against them in the second half i mean they just we've seen we're five games in they're horrible in the second half so maybe i'll get caught here but i'm gonna ride that trend all season until the eagles win three or four second halves in a row so carolina if you're worried about getting a bad number, I think you can take a position here in life. Like Eagles get up seven, three, whatever it is. You take a position then a four and a half or three and a half on Carolina. Like that's, that to me is a safe bet on Carolina. So that's just my hesitation. I don't think it's a bad bet. What you're saying with the Panthers. I said that on Sunday night, I thought this would be what happened to saints. I thought this line would be Panthers minus one and a half at this point, right? This would make sense. I think even, you know, the fact that pros have held this Eagles line at this point, It's actually shocking that there's enough professional money. Because like I talked about, if you're betting the Eagles and you're Joe Public, respect to you. I don't have the gut for it right now. They look so lost as a franchise.
00:38:39
Speaker 1: Well, that's what was shocking to me. When I looked at all the numbers this morning and we had sort of enough information from 24 to 36 hours of people coming in on these games, I was surprised that the ticket count and the money count was still in favor of the Eagles. And to me, the fact they're coming back from England and they're so injured and the Panthers have just been sitting by, resting, and getting healthy, the desperation thing is a big deal. We saw it with the Jags. We saw it with the Texans. We saw it with the Packers. Those last two teams, they needed to get right in those spots. Sometimes I think that the flip side is The Panthers know they have an opportunity here. I think they're starting to get a lot more confident. They're starting to feel like they know who they are and that they can be competitive. You don't want to lose that momentum either, and that fuels you to make the extra effort. We could argue, are we in the kind of world where hate and fear, i.e. desperation, is more powerful than optimism as a motivator? But I'm very curious to see where this line ends up. I'm on the Panthers at plus one and a half so far for a taste.
00:39:57
Speaker 2: I had to get up really early today. My mom became an American citizen this morning.
00:40:03
Speaker 1: No way.
00:40:04
Speaker 2: Yeah. And my uncle is there with me and we're talking. He's a Dire Eagles fan. And he's like the same thing. He's like talking about jumping off a bridge, like losing his mind, how horrible it's been. He's a season tickler. He goes to every game for the last 30 years, never misses a game. And– I talked to him about this line because he thinks we're going to get rolled here by the Panthers. I try to explain in the books what I do with my job. It's always very telling where the Eagles easily could have beat the Rams, right? Easily could have beat the Jaguars. What is this line then? That's what I wanted him to say to himself. What is this line if that holds true? Are the Eagles minus three, minus three and a half against the Panthers here? And he's like, yeah, probably. I said, so that's what the line is supposed to be. That's how you have to view these things where Right now, the books are telling themselves the fact that it's not because they're going to get tons of– everything you just said, Chad, is true. The laziest man ever that does zero research come Sunday morning, he knows that, but we know too. The Eagles have just come back from London. Panthers are coming off a bye week. So many people are simply going to just bet that because it is a real thing. Rested, healthy, all that. So I totally agree with you. That's what's throwing me for a loop here because it's like, why are the Eagles not plus one and a half? I just don't get it. Who– Who is hammering this Eagles sign? So, yeah, hopefully we get some more info on the sharp calls because I am perplexed by this number. I thought I'd come in here and I'd get a nice number in the Eagles. And it's still, like Chad said, I still can technically see why you would take the Panthers right now. It's a Panthers number. It's just do the teaser. It's so much better to have seven and a half than anything else. You're getting a great number because if it does flip, then I wouldn't tell you to tease it. Once it goes through zero, you're wasting time teasing it. So that's my view on it right now with the Panthers.
00:41:44
Speaker 1: Tennessee and Indy. Another bet I made on Sunday night, I really just made it because it was at six and a half. I expected it to go to seven. It is now seven. I'm not denying it's risky. Daniel Jones and Cam Ward are actually remarkably similar quarterbacks this year. They are 30th and 31st in passing EPA. They are 29th and 30th in EPA quarterbacks. per dropback i was just playing the number i can't go out there and say yeah the the colts are seven points better and i would play the colts at seven i just wanted to get ahead of it get into a touchdown.
00:42:33
Speaker 2: Totally fair like i i mean we keep it moving on this one i don't have a real read on it like i just i know i'm gonna end up just putting the colts in a teaser if i can just keep fading this titans team they're just so bad i i I don't know how much you watched the Houston game because I know you were traveling.
00:42:47
Speaker 1: I watched all of it.
00:42:48
Speaker 2: Yeah. Even watching them, I never had fear. They just look so lost, so dysfunctional. Colts, they're a good team. They've had a hard schedule. They've played tough teams, and it's just not broken their way. I was really down on them this year because of Daniel Jones coming back from the Achilles, and you've seen that has affected them, right? He doesn't have as much power pushing off his back foot. Obviously, his rushing ability is taken away. So, you know, been very lucky with some of my summer preseason picks. Like, you know, I feel like I'm very lucky in the Vikings. I feel like I'm very lucky. We were against the Chargers just because we were so high on the Raiders and the Chiefs. Same thing with the Colts. I was just low on them because I love these other teams in the division. So, matchup here of, like, I assume most people will be taking the Titans, and maybe I'll end up taking the Colts because it is a Colts number, but... Yeah, I had this model at 7.5, so technically it's a Colts number, but it's like– you can hear it in my voice. I have no confidence in betting the Colts. I'll just take the money line or a teaser, but yeah, betting this 7, it's just too many points.
00:43:53
Speaker 1: Late afternoon games, we got some tricky, tricky games. Arizona at the Rams. This number is now 13.5. I mean, look, Arizona did not look good. So– you could argue that this is the spot we need to play a bad, and this will come up again, a bad team coming off of a blowout loss. Now they're in the division, two touchdown underdogs to the Rams. The Rams are desperate. Rams are two and three. You know, we talked about this going back to the preseason and, The best bet on the Rams was the Rams to miss the playoffs. While everyone is betting the Rams down to five to one to win the Super Bowl and the public is piling in on the super team, you said it yourself, bet the Rams at plus 400 to miss the playoffs. Right now they're two and three. So they're 13 and a half point favorites. If you're just picking the number, you have to bet the Arizona Cardinals here.
00:45:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, and easily it could be 1-4. Like we talked about the Eagles game. They got very fortunate to steal the game. They should be 1-4, honestly. And they've had bad luck where you could say, well, there's some of these other games they should have flipped, right? That Bills game should have been theirs. I mean, we joked all week. I was working the phone lines and working really hard to get any info I could from anyone on the Bills because you have these people in this profession that are professional bettors. And they're professional bullshitters. And these people are telling me he's got a bad knee. They're telling me he's got a hurt shoulder.
00:45:39
Speaker 1: Josh Allen.
00:45:39
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. They're telling me he's got a bad throwing shoulder. And I am just– I don't see it. I'm watching the tape. I don't see it. And the only thing I can take– the only reason I was agreeing with them or believe what they're saying and trying to look more into it is because the number didn't make sense. Why in the world was Josh Allen a three-point dog to the Rams?
00:45:58
Speaker 1: Three and a half. Three and a half.
00:46:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, right. That's what I moved to. But I couldn't believe he was even a three-point dog. And I was like, in my mind, the biggest sucker in the world is going to be betting Josh Allen. And I was like, that's what I was fighting with. It's like, why would you not put him in every teaser in the world? Why would you not put the plus three? It's literally free money. And again, I'm not calling them fake sharps. You have these guys who are just, they think they're so smart being like, well, I got info. I got info there's an injury. That's why I'm a genius right now. And yeah, if you got the ramps two and a half, you got burned. You should have hit that field goal, whatever you want to say. or there's so many ways the Rams could have won that game. I mean, Stafford threw for 400 yards, three touchdowns, no picks out of thing. And he still lost that game. So I get it, right? If you had two and a half, I do feel for you on the Rams. If you had Rams minus three, Rams minus three and a half, you, you rely on yourself the whole time. You're, you're simply only backing it because you were just, you, you thought you had info other people didn't get, or it's like that historical data of these East coast teams traveling West for prime times games. It was a terrible spot. Right. But, I just can't remember how much we've overrated this Rams team and how we continue every week to overrate them. So aren't we supposed to just blindly bet the Cardinals here? Yes, teaser the Rams, sure, no problem. But at this number, the Cardinals, that's what they do. They backdoor teams. We know. Brissette's bad. I mean, someone had an amazing tweet. Since Kyler Murray's left this team, Brissette's been the starter. I don't know if they won a game. Or they won that one game against the Chargers at the start of the year. So they're one in whatever it is at this point. One in 15, one in 16 since Kyler's left. Arizona is a terrible team. We get it, but I don't know if the Rams deserve to get this many points. I really can't wait to see what the market does with this because I could see the Cardinals becoming a public dog as the week goes along, potentially. Because I think people have the same view as we do. It's just, yeah, the Rams are a good team. They could easily blow them out. We have no questions about them offensively. It's just Can you stop a run up the middle, Rams? I don't know if you can. I mean, Josh Allen supposedly had a bad knee. He ran for, what was it, 90 yards in that fourth quarter overtime, like six carries for over 90 yards. It's just– it's hard to know right now. This Rams team, they just seem like they can't stop the run, Chad. So the Cardinals, they look bad. They look lost. But this is the exact type of game Jeremiah Love or Algier has a great game for the Cardinals, and they're able to stay in and keep it close. And if we just get one turnover by the Rams, if we just get one, I feel like we could cover this number by the Cardinals. That's like, that's when you get this big of a number, you basically are asking the Rams to play a flawless game. And that's, that's exactly it. Yeah. Maybe the Rams in November, but the Rams right now, they don't look like that team. So yeah, I was shocked to see the books hanging this line. It's, it's one of those, I wanted to bet heavier into it and I was hoping it would be a 13 and a half. And I feel like it was at 13 and just immediately got back down to 12 and a half. So yeah, this is a real game. We actually might talk about playing on Sunday. Cause I just, I think it's way too inflated for this Rams team.
00:48:52
Speaker 1: I'm looking right now, Simon. I'm seeing 13.5. I want to make sure I'm not misrepresenting that. Oh, no, you're right.
00:49:01
Speaker 2: It could be state to state because it's 12.5 in Jersey.
00:49:04
Speaker 1: You're right. You're right. I'm seeing mostly 12.5. Maybe I didn't update it before I got on the air because it was at 13.5, and so it's moved down a little bit. Even at the 12.5, you've got to play it. You're not wrong. You want to win by– more than two touchdowns in the NFL. You got to be flawless. Like the Patriots were this past weekend. Like the Packers were this past weekend, a little bit like the lions were this past weekend. Like it is just not easy. Even the Texans, like it is not easy to do that. And the Cardinals can be a competitive team. They do have talented players. So, Yeah, one run back. One long run back by the Cardinals. And all of a sudden, you're going to be a Rams backer who's watching that clock tick away with the Cardinals down by 10.
00:49:50
Speaker 2: We were dead in that 49ers game.
00:49:53
Speaker 1: Better than dead.
00:49:54
Speaker 2: Yeah. And Brissette, our guy, he doesn't give up. He doesn't care. He knows they're terrible. And they let him play until there's two minutes left in the fourth quarter. They don't care if they're losing by 21. Brissette will be out there slinging the ball. So, like you said, Detroit– That's the only scenario that could happen. Detroit steamrolled the Cardinals. They didn't settle for three. Every time they drove the field, I mean, their head coach, Campbell, is going for it on fourth and five when they're already up 14. Like, they're just– I don't know if the Rams are going to be that psycho, that aggressive. They're just– they know they just need to win here. I don't know if they're in the mentality of we're good enough to just beat this team by 20 points right now. So, yeah, I'm shocked that we're both in agreement. We both like the Cardinals here.
00:50:33
Speaker 1: Buffalo at Las Vegas. The Raiders are 5.5-point underdogs. Our man Matt Mitchell is living his best life right now. He is a Brewers fan. He is a Bills man. Yesterday, he had the Brew crew come back and beat the Dodgers. He had the Bills come back and beat the Rams. Buffalo Bills superstar, incredibly handsome quarterback. A dyed-in-the-wool, inveterate monster.
00:51:02
Speaker 2: Fires it into wide open. Remarkable. Josh Allen, goodness. And there he goes.
00:51:06
Speaker 1: Inside the 10, the 5.
00:51:08
Speaker 2: Oh, the play of the year in the NFL. To the end zone. Touchdown. Touchdown.
00:51:27
Speaker 1: Excuse me. Touchdown from Josh Allen. How can he possibly do this?
00:51:32
Speaker 2: This is impossible. A strike.
00:51:33
Speaker 1: And the Bills are pouring it on.
00:51:37
Speaker 2: The Bills were unstoppable.
00:51:39
Speaker 1: My brother.
00:51:41
Speaker 2: Josh Allen setting records.
00:51:43
Speaker 1: Be good.
00:51:44
Speaker 2: Do good. God bless.
00:51:46
Speaker 1: And go Bills. Bills are not going on the road in Las Vegas. This is going to be Chad's choice. It has moved down from six to five and a half. Don't care. As Jay Cutler would say, don't care. Give me the Raiders plus five and a half. I don't care which way we look at it, Simon. Home dog off of a blowout loss since 2003, 57% against the spread. Good team off of a blowout loss, 55% against the spread. If we're not convinced the Raiders are a good team because of the record and we think they're actually a bad team that's masquerading as a good team, Great. Bad team, off a blow-off loss, back at home, 56% against the spread. We don't know what this team is yet, but we do know that if they are good at anything, it is getting the ball to Brock Bowers and getting the ball overall to their tight ends. Bills are not very good at defending the tight end, 23rd in the NFL. So there's a lot of different ways from a trend perspective, from a matchup perspective, from a spot perspective. The Bills playing overtime, Give me the Las Vegas Raiders plus five and a half.
00:52:56
Speaker 2: Buffalo has flexed its muscle and build itself as one of the mightiest teams in the NFL. Yeah, I was going to make this Simon says, and I know our Chad choices and Simon says I've been absolutely asked this year, but I think we both agree. We both just immediately love this game and this matchup and it sucks. It's not six. The pros are just absolutely hammering this number. I mean, we're doing the show live, you know, four and a half now, basically everywhere.
00:53:22
Speaker 1: Shut up.
00:53:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's being hammered. Once again, maybe these pros think Josh Allen just got shot up and he really does have a knee injury. I didn't see that. This man was running all over the field. You can say, well, he had a shoulder injury. What did he have, 12 completions, 19 attempts? Maybe. I don't know, though. He was pushing the ball downfield. I hear all these rumors about Josh Allen. I agree with everyone. Josh Allen... He's going to pay for all this, right? He has not missed any games. He's been a freak. His body's held up, but that's all these people are betting into this, these rumors. And that's what worries me here a little bit where it's like, are people betting into it again? Cause this is another game where it's like 90% of the early money, 90% of the early bets are all over the bills. And yet this number has gone from six now to four and a half of most shops. So it's, we're on the right side, Chad. We're on the right side. Clearly like our early read on this one is right. It'll be interesting to see where this ends up. So four and a half, I still think it's a Raiders play. Hopefully when you hear this, you can still get the five or potentially five and a half at volume market. But I just, I'm assuming by the time people get this now, it'll be four and a half everywhere. It's just when, when it moves that much, that's really respected money coming in heavy on that Raiders side. So everything you said is true though. That secondary, the bills we've seen, they can be passed on her cousins. You know, he's a good passing quarterback. coming off a bad loss, you expect them to bounce back. And this Raiders team, you know, we've overrated them for sure, right? We did. We knew they were going to get caught at some point. They got caught last week against this New England team. I don't think they're as bad as they played in that game. It just felt like everything went wrong in that second half for them, especially defensively. So, yeah, interesting, interesting game. I can't believe it's moved this much. I really thought we'd come in Thursday and this would be back to 6-6.5. So, It's nice to know we're on the right side, Chad, but it sucks we're not getting the best of the number now.
00:55:19
Speaker 1: I know. I was actually moving more slowly because I thought it would stick around at five and a half or maybe get back up to six. And while we've been on the air, that's a little shocking to me because I'm looking right now. It is at four and a half at Polymarket. There are fives and five and a halves at some sportsbooks. I literally just bet it at five and a half while you were talking because I got so nervous that it was going to. I was going to lose the numbers. So yeah, Raiders, five and a half. Chad's choice. The Los Angeles Chargers are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs are eight and a half point favorites. I'm going to give you a preview of a cool stat. So this fall, The Athletic has asked me to do a series of columns taking a big picture look at the world of sports betting. The next column includes some information about Patrick Mahomes as a public favorite. Because his lines are always so inflated, right? Eight and a half at home against the Chargers this week. Since 2018, out of 101 quarterbacks who have been favorites getting more than 51% of the spread, he is 101st against the spread. Because his numbers are always so big. Now, nobody wants to back the Chargers. Nobody wants to back the Chargers against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes when they're off of a bye. But is this number too big? Yeah.
00:56:46
Speaker 2: And speaking of the Athletic, shout out to my girl, Katie Rich Creek, one of my all-time favorite last names. I saw she's like on some show now on the Athletic. I know you're working with her over there. Yeah, she's– That blew my mind. I saw her on camera. Yeah, I saw her on camera doing a show. I was like, oh, look at her.
00:57:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, she's doing great.
00:57:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, this line is no different than last week, though, with Denver, Chad. I know. I knew every pro in the world was telling me I had to take the Chargers. And I go, this is the exact time to zag. Just because they're 0-4 or 0-3-1 against the spread, it doesn't mean you just blindly bet them. And that's what so many guys were doing last week with the Chargers. And they're doing it once again this week where it's just, I get it. We have all the data, right? Justin Herbert is these big dogs. He covers. I mean, Mahomes is a big favorite here. He never covers. I agree with you. I can't avoid this one. We're both going to be the suckers here. We're going to take the Chargers. It's just what we do. You bet the Chargers on this plus eight and a half. You throw Mahomes in the Chiefs teaser. 60% of the time, probably 70% of the time, to be honest, you are making money in this exact spot. Chiefs always win this game. They just never cover. And maybe they are different this year, this Chiefs team. They have been so down around the ball, but we've seen a lot of their games just feel close, right? They're still... figuring it out defensively. They still have big holes defensively. And this Chargers team, with all their injuries and everything terrible, they never give up. They never die, right? Like that, Justin Herbert, he did lose in that game with his stupid turnovers. But that's just the way he plays, man. He just goes so hard. He doesn't care if he's got on his fourth or fifth receiver. He's going to throw that guy a 50-50 ball. And it did not work last week for him at all. So, yeah, the books, they basically have hit their– their threshold. They're like, they're, they're like, at what point will this team cover? Cause they're going to keep giving these free extra one or two points. Like this should be, even with all the injuries probably should be a six point spread, six and a half point spread. So yeah, we both know we're getting two points of value here. I mean, my model has to set five and a half, even with all the injuries. And if this wasn't a horrible team, the charges would be one of my bigger bets this week, like three points of value, divisional dog. Oh my God. Like this is a slam dunk, but, They're just, I mean, Harbaugh's lost his mind. Some of the stuff they do doesn't make sense. It's just the whole thing doesn't make sense right now. with this Chargers team. So that's my hesitation here where it's just, are we the suckers who are taking the Chargers where the Chiefs are just such an easy side? Just bet the Chiefs in a teaser. Don't even think about this game where I know come Sunday morning, we're going to be looking at this line. It's like, oh my God, now it's up to nine and a half, maybe 10. How do we not play the Chargers? That's what sucks. We're, Where is the resistance from the professional bettors? We haven't hit it yet. This number has just keep going up. So eight and a half. I want to bet it, but I'm gonna try to be patient here. It's like, where is the threshold of pros will bet it. So yeah, another coward bet by me taking a teaser here, but you're getting two and a half with my homes at home. It just feels like a good number against a team that hasn't won a game yet this year. So we'll see. This is a, this is tempting chat to take the chargers here.
00:59:53
Speaker 1: I say we'd be patient a lot more tickets and money coming in on the chiefs right now. So, the books might have to move this up a little bit more. Even though there are professionals who are clearly trying to play the Chargers right now, the public is just going to hammer, hammer the Chiefs. Sunday night football. You mentioned this on our show Sunday night. Dallas is visiting Green Bay. Green Bay is a one and a half point favorite. The direction is juiced, I think, to move towards the Cowboys to make this maybe Cowboys plus one, could even get to plus a half. Micah Parsons is not expected to play for the Packers. I think it's another reason why the line might be moving, but it's definitely one of those wise guy games already, even in the first 48 hours since week five ended.
01:00:50
Speaker 2: And I hate it. I don't want to bet. I said in the show, I don't want to bet the Cowboys because it feels like no matter what, it's a coin flip type of game, but it's just, That's where the value is. The Cowboys are a better team on paper than the Packers. Most guys are going to have them modeled as a better team. And it's a nice spot technically for this Cowboys team. There's going to be, I mean, it's just see what the trends are going to point here when I talk to all these different trend betters. But I just assume that this was going to be an absolute hammer spot by the public on the Packers. I mean, they just looked so good. I mean, so good in the flip side. Everyone hates the Cowboys. I mean, they're a joke. We gave out that teaser. They're the only leg that lost in that teaser I gave out. Right. Like, it was just, it's such a shocking loss. I mean, I know guys who have won millions and millions of dollars in survivor pools, and they were the dumb enough suckers to bet and take the Cowboys in their survivor pools. And I said on the show, it's like, I would have taken them if it was a Sunday game. But we've just, I've been in that spot before the Cowboys on Thursday night. laying an egg at home. And, you know, you could say what you want. They just, you can blame their defense. I know it's always going to fall on Dak and Ferguson having that ball bounce off his face. But you just, it's shocking to let a first time, first time starter and a second start undrafted rookie for agent coming to your house and just beat you. Like they beat up this Cowboys team. So I totally get why the public is totally off this team and no one's betting them. But, You just got to throw it out. You can't overreact to the previous week. And matchup-wise, that's secondary of the Packers. You expect that to be an advantage for this Cowboys team. And on the flip side, who knows what's going on with right now this Cowboys team and their defense. But I mean, people are putting the stats out there. It's like one of the worst historical defenses ever. And then you match it up to last year. they're not that much better than they were last year. You think about all the moves Jerry Jones has made for this defense. So I get it. It's a game where maybe we'll make it one of our five. We know it's the sharp-sized dick in the Cowboys. They're undervalued right now, and people just really are down on this team where the Packers are better than we gave them credit for, but they're not that much better. So I do think it's interesting where the tickets are all coming in on this Green Bay side, but the money obviously is coming in. pretty evenly on this Packers side. So another line I can maybe be patient on, but I don't think this one will go up to two, two and a half on this Cowboys side.
01:03:26
Speaker 1: Actually, if you look at it, the, the, the tickets are pretty split, but money is definitely on the Cowboys. There's no, there's no doubt about it. It's definitely one of the more, more wise guy sides. You talk about sort of the discrepancies between tickets and money. It's one of the few games where it's a little bit lopsided with the wise guys and the money on the Cowboys. Last game, Monday night football. Washington Commanders visiting the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are seven and a half point favorites. Brother, talk about the highest of the high and the lowest of the low. Betting against Brock Purdy and the undefeated Niners. with Nick Bosa possibly coming back, that would take some serious, serious brass balls. But we kind of got to consider it. Like in this scenario, the discrepancy between public perception in this game couldn't be any bigger. And the Niners just as easily, as you said at the beginning of the show, Mike Evans goes off in that last drive. but they benefit from three unprecedented turnovers inside the tenor at the goal line by the Seahawks. They get points. I'm not saying the Commanders have the same defense as the Seahawks, but the Niners are benefiting from winning a huge game on the road where they got very, very lucky. I don't know how we can't consider the Commanders here.
01:05:09
Speaker 2: That's one thing that gave me pause, because what is this number? Why is this not six or five and a half? I mean, seven and a half, and we've seen this Washington team with Jayden Daniels, they're a very good offense.
01:05:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, they move the ball.
01:05:22
Speaker 2: They move the ball. Yeah, so bizarre, bizarre number. And I'll go back to that trend that they kept reading off last night, right? The Bills won it covered last night. The previous 10 East Coast teams to go West for a primetime game were 0-10 straight up and against the spread.
01:05:40
Speaker 1: Oh my God.
01:05:40
Speaker 2: So that was another, like I said, trend betters. That was another reason they liked the Rams last night. It was like, I said, at three and a half, your trend doesn't make, it didn't make sense. Same thing it feels here. Your trend doesn't make sense now that it's seven and a half. I get what they're saying, but it feels like the books are building into this line, that exact trend. And they know, you know, people are going to be hammering the 49ers. They'll be in every Moneyline teaser parlay for good reason, right? They're five and oh, this is the exact type of game they should lose outright. No one sees coming. Everyone believes in him. Bizarre, bizarre number. That's my only hesitation here is I don't get the number. Like, it's the same thing with the Bills. I would have hammered that Bills line if it stayed at three. The fact that they were giving me a free hook, I couldn't believe it. Same thing with the Communities. Like, it's just– I mean, we want to give all the respect we can to the 49ers because we've been wrong on them this year. Definitely, we've faded them in certain spots and they've won. I mean, last week in Seattle, that felt like a nice number, two and a half on Seattle. it was done. You're never going to get that number. Like the 49ers were just so competitive. So in that game and John Lynch, I give a ton of crap to, he has drafted. Well, their D line has played so well, despite all the injuries, their secondaries, but really well, despite all the injuries. Yeah. Tough number here, Chad, because it's just, it feels way too easy to take commanders here. I just can't believe we're getting seven and a half. So I will interest you with the pros doing this one. Cause it just feels like early money right now. The pros are on the 49ers and, I don't see it at this number. I get the trends. I told you that trend. It's, it's real, but my God, seven and a half for Jane Daniels offense. They're just, they're always going to be in this. Like he just, he's such a good quarterback, never loses hope. And they're coming off such an embarrassing loss or tie. My God, what are we missing here? This just feels too easy to commanders.
01:07:30
Speaker 1: I wonder if Matt Mitchell can look this up really quickly, but there was a conversation in the discord after the bills game last night that, Primetime underdogs have won outright, I think, the past eight games. Can that be right? We know the Bills won outright. We know the Bucs won outright. I think you're on mute, buddy.
01:07:58
Speaker 2: I was going to say, off the top of my head, I know that the Rams played the Giants in our primetime game and blew them out. Remember that? They were like a seven and a half point favorite. Seven consecutive. That's what Matt Mitchell said. So that was the last time. Yeah. The Rams beat the Giants. And since then, that's pretty crazy. Every dog's one outright.
01:08:16
Speaker 1: That's insane. And when you just said the commanders could win this game outright, it feels exactly like the game where the commanders could win this game outright.
01:08:25
Speaker 2: Yeah. Dumb, dumb trap spot that you never see coming where they've just now beat up. You can say they've been four of the best seven teams, NFL, this 49ers team. They've just been on a roll. I mean, you know, the fact that they've just been dominating their division to start the season, the hardest division of football with all these injuries. And we talked coming in the year, we were both very high in the 49ers. We thought their value was the exact same as the Seattle Seahawks and the Rams were just way too overrated, blah, blah, blah. But coming in the year, it's once all those injuries happen, it's like, can the 49ers survive this? And yeah, Brock Purdy, MVP to Kyle Shane and coach of the year because of it, they've overcome so much adversity against such a hard schedule. So this just feels like an easy game to pick out that they'll trip on themselves here. So yeah, I can't believe it's seven and a half. I really can't.
01:09:12
Speaker 1: All right. We got a lot to break down on Thursday. Some really interesting, Simon Says is the Browns plus four and a half. Chad's Choice is the Raiders plus five and a half. Could go quick because a lot of places move into five. Prediction markets might already have it at four and a half. But you can get a five and a half. There are five and a halves available. This has been Sharp or Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on, plus a survivor pick, a dead battle, brass balls, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. And they can be mad at me, and I don't care. They can write in and call in.
01:10:04
Speaker 2: I'm just telling you facts, gang.
01:10:06
Speaker 1: We go, hey, get on a bus and drive to Cleveland. I'll show you some fans. They start when you're warming up. They start when they break the pop bottles open, gang.