00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square. We are brought to you by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
00:00:13
Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman.
00:00:14
Speaker 1: I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my co-host, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
00:00:22
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
00:00:24
Speaker 3: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:26
Speaker 2: Brother, second show today. Second show.
00:00:30
Speaker 1: Westin Hotel for me this time in the fighting city of Philadelphia, not too far from you.
00:00:34
Speaker 2: Dude, this morning we did our show.
00:00:38
Speaker 1: We had a flurry of last minute changes to the lineup. Last ones in were the Bears and the Broncos. Last ones out were the Raiders and Lions. It's rare we change out two games. and go 2-0 on both of those games. It was that kind of day. Dude, before we get there, I know you got a lot of.
00:01:05
Speaker 2: Family in England.
00:01:06
Speaker 1: I know a lot of them were at the game today between the Eagles and the Jags. Honest to God, I thought they had found what could be the most remarkable way to lose a game until Washington, which we'll get to. I had just landed in Philly when it happened. I think I heard the entire city scream at the same time.
00:01:28
Speaker 2: Man.
00:01:31
Speaker 3: Yeah. Awful, awful experience.
00:01:34
Speaker 4: But, um, yeah, that's not that I scoffed you when you said, are the Eagles tank in the season, but it's just, I knew this team was never going to quit. They're never going to give up with a guy like Jalen Hurts playing quarterback for them. But, um, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter how much talent or, you know, how hard your guys play for coaches and idiot. They'll make mistakes into these games and cost you games. So, um, Yeah, I honestly don't even want to talk about it that much because it took me like two hours to get over it. I told Chad I ate like four Philly soft pretzels, just super eating my feelings, sadness after the fact. So, yeah, I honestly can't wrap my head around it. As soon as it ended, I tried to bear it away because it's like, you know how it is as a fan. Those are the type of games that can ruin your week. Like you just– it's so painful to lose that way in a game that you dominated, you've stolen, you've won against– A team that people viewed as a top three, top four AFC type of team.
00:02:31
Speaker 3: So, yeah, awful, awful way.
00:02:34
Speaker 4: My cousins, like Chad said, I had family in England at the game. God bless them. They were so happy, so excited. And that was probably just a horrible experience. So, yeah, really tough.
00:02:44
Speaker 1: I thought it was just going to be like heart of a champion Philly defense, the way they handled it. The Jaguars hurt themselves, too. They had so many penalties, more than 100 yards in penalties. Every time they sort of took a step forward, they were taking two steps back because of holdings, pre-snaps, delay games. I mean, there were a lot of classic Trevor Lawrence miscues in there. In the end, there were some other moments today. The Miami Dolphins, who maybe touched seven early in the week, spent most of the week at 6.5 points. underdogs have a chance for the backdoor cover, miss an extra point to lose the game by seven. So all those wise guy dolphins backers who were on Miami, thank freaking God. We knew enough to stay away from this game, dude.
00:03:39
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:03:39
Speaker 4: But nightmare, nightmare scenario for the sports books. Cause they just let the public hammer the six and a half on Cincy.
00:03:46
Speaker 2: Yes.
00:03:46
Speaker 4: Cause they knew exactly how that was going to play out, which, I mean, we both talked.
00:03:50
Speaker 3: That was just a.
00:03:51
Speaker 4: Fishy, fishy number all week. But just brutal. Like we talk all the time, sportsbooks, no one's going to feel bad for them. But they had the 7.5 up. The professionals hammered it. And then they moved to 6.5, and the public hammered that, and they just lost on both. So, yeah, nothing you can do. You can have the perfect model. Still all comes down to the players on the field. And that was, like you said, that was insane when it landed right on that number.
00:04:15
Speaker 1: All right, let's start with– we're going to get into our NFL Week 5 reactions. We're going to recap the glory and the misery of the day. We are 3-2. The day is done. One of those rare weeks. We don't have a Sunday night game. We don't have a Monday night game. A winning week for us with the Broncos, with the Packers, with the Texans. We lost with the Saints, and we lost– with the Washington Commanders, which is where we are going to start. Jason, my buddy in the Discord, made a point. All four NFC East teams today walked away without a win, and two of them played each other because the New York Giants, who were three-and-a-half-point underdogs, the Washington Commanders, tied the Commanders 27-27. No one wanted to win the game. How else do you explain it? I'll set it up. I'm sure everyone's seen it by now. Cam Scadaboo fumbles the ball, driving in commander's territory. All they have to do is hold on to the ball with less than two minutes left. The Giants, they're going to kick a game-winning field goal.
00:05:30
Speaker 2: He fumbles.
00:05:32
Speaker 1: The commanders get all the way to the other end of the field. They got 15 seconds left. They have a full play clock. They run a play with no timeouts. Jaden Daniels can't get everybody back on the ball. And they end up not kicking a field goal. The game ends in a tie. We're going to get to shame on you, but there were just miscues, bad decisions, incompetent decisions. That's really what it was. It was coaching malpractice by the Washington Commanders.
00:06:01
Speaker 4: It was, but it's, I mean, at the end of the day, they got Jameis. Like, it's just, he did nothing. I mean, he had okay for half a quarter. And basically played possum, did nothing. Washington gets that two-pointer. They're up 14, seven minutes to go. And I knew, okay, well, Jameis is either going to drive the field here, get a touchdown, or throw a pick.
00:06:21
Speaker 3: He drove the field, got a touchdown.
00:06:23
Speaker 4: I think it was on like a fourth down he scored the touchdown, too. Just classic Jameis. Okay, Washington's getting the ball back. Me and Chad are still up seven. We need, what, one or two first downs here, and this game's over. Three and out, punt. Jameis gets the ball. and just multiple times where like they had penalties and they got sacked. And every time Jameis got them, the deep play where, you know, Dan Quinn thinks he's Brian Flores and he's just going to blitz every down where a guy like Winston, you just run zones. You, you make him pick apart your defense. He will eventually will throw one up and get picked. Instead of he's giving them one-on-ones of the outside and neighbors and neighbors is winning that every time downfield. So, um, Yeah, just brutal no-cover. It all kind of broke the way we thought, right? Jandino's had a great game.
00:07:08
Speaker 3: Exactly. Played incredible. And Dan Quinn, once again, is supposed to be a defensive mind. Terrible.
00:07:15
Speaker 4: And, yeah, you're more upset than I am, obviously, about the overtime. I was super mad that he won the 20 toss and decided to kick to the Giants. So no matter what, our bet was dead.
00:07:26
Speaker 2: Dead.
00:07:27
Speaker 4: So I was literally praying for a tie. Once that happened, I was either hoping for a pick six or a tie. and luckily it ended in a tie because I just– I didn't think Dan Quinn deserved to win that game with that team, but at the same time, the Giants, like you said, the scatterbow fumble, they didn't deserve to win that either, right?
00:07:46
Speaker 3: They had the game.
00:07:47
Speaker 4: He turned it over, and they're just as happy as anyone else to win or get that tie.
00:07:52
Speaker 3: They couldn't believe it. The people– I mean, the more shocking part too, I know you were traveling.
00:07:56
Speaker 4: I don't know if you were watching the game with the volume on, The announcers didn't know what was happening with G.A.
00:08:00
Speaker 2: Daniels.
00:08:01
Speaker 3: They were so nonchalant, too, until they realized, oh, they don't have a timeout either. The way G.A. Daniels played that was if he thought they had a timeout. They were just so nonchalant.
00:08:08
Speaker 4: Even the announcers thought that until they heard the moan of the crowd and they started panicking. I can't remember the last time it's happened. I know it does happen. It feels like every other year, but I honestly can't remember. Just probably the worst ending to a game. If you're a fan of the Washington community, you could possibly ask for it. You blew a 14-point lead now. You blew an easy field goal. I mean, they're the 20-yard line, so just brutal.
00:08:32
Speaker 2: I'm watching.
00:08:32
Speaker 1: I keep looking up because I was keeping an eye on the Niners-Seahawks game, which is now over. Niners win 32-29 on the road. Devin combined turnovers in this game. Seahawks gave the ball up, I think, twice inside their own 10 and once inside their own end zone on a kneel down at the end of the half, so. Those are the differences for the Seattle Seahawks, which was a brutal, brutal beat for us Seahawks backers. We nailed this commander's game. That's what's frustrating about it. Jaden Daniels, third and 11 in the rain, straight up the field, no fear, puts his shoulder down for their first field goal. He had went 38 yards up the middle, midway through the third to go up 19 to six, longest rushing touchdown of his career, nine rushes, 103 yards, two touchdowns.
00:09:26
Speaker 2: Here's what was interesting. You just said we got Jameis. I'm going to give you the stats.
00:09:30
Speaker 1: In the first half, Jameis goes 7 of 16, no touchdowns. In the second half, just in the second half, and overtime, 26 of 38, 254, three touchdowns, including the game-tying touchdown pass to Malik Nabors with less than two minutes left.
00:09:51
Speaker 2: That's rough.
00:09:51
Speaker 1: That's what you get when you play with fire. You play with Jameis. You play with Dan Quinn. That's what you're going to get. Let's talk about the other loser on our slate today. Minnesota.
00:10:01
Speaker 2: At New Orleans.
00:10:02
Speaker 1: New Orleans was a two and a half point dog. We were never getting out of the way of this one. We both wanted to be on New Orleans. We wanted to back Tyler Shuck. We wanted to back Tyler Shuck at home. We didn't think the Minnesota offense was good enough. We were playing with fire, really playing with fire on this one. And it turns out the New Orleans defense is what could make the Minnesota offense finally look good, even when Minnesota was turning the ball over inside their own 10-yard line twice.
00:10:39
Speaker 3: Exactly. We played the spot.
00:10:42
Speaker 4: We know the Saints are not that good of a team. We've said it a million times. It's a bad team. But Shuck gave us nothing. He threw for 96 yards. Flores did his thing, obviously. I mean, he could throw his 96 yards, two picks. We had our hopes up because he started so well against bad defenses, Shuck. But we've seen here now, I mean, if it keeps going this way, they're obviously going to be in the market for a quarterback.
00:11:05
Speaker 3: He's just not the guy.
00:11:06
Speaker 4: And this is the situation where if he had just gave them a C plus, a B minus type of game, they easily cover possibly win this game. Just because we talked about it, this Vikings offense, they're just not right yet.
00:11:21
Speaker 3: And Kyler played much.
00:11:22
Speaker 4: Better in this game, but a lot of it was down to his legs. Like they had a couple of third and 11s. He uses legs to get the first downs. Um, Justin Jefferson's touchdown was in a triple coverage. It was like a once, you know, perfect ball, a little bit of push off by Jeff Jefferson, but like insane back of the corner touchdown. Um, then we get basically we're dead in this game and they get that fumble car.
00:11:43
Speaker 3: We take the other way to score a touchdown, the saints.
00:11:45
Speaker 2: And miss the extra point, miss the point.
00:11:47
Speaker 3: And that's where I thought we were dead.
00:11:48
Speaker 4: Cause in my mind it was like, okay, now we're back in it and we have a weird number now.
00:11:52
Speaker 3: Cause I think at the time it was going to be 14 to 13. Yeah.
00:11:55
Speaker 4: And yeah, respect the collar.
00:11:57
Speaker 3: Murray drove right down the field and he got the ball back, scored a touchdown. And this week, like we'll talk about a bunch of games. I love this week.
00:12:04
Speaker 4: Cause we talk about all the traps. It's the traps of, Are you a playoff team or are you not? Are you for real or are you not? Minnesota won this game. They were not supposed to. They were supposed to stumble in this game. They're for real. I mean, just across the board, they're getting so little from their quarterback the past couple weeks, and Kyler did enough in this week that it really stood out, right? We saw him, once he was able to get the safeties to drop back, now they're able to run it. I think they ran it for another 100 yards this game. So it's just, if Kyler can figure it out, the Vikings, they're just going to keep getting better. They're just a scary team, honestly. So that was a really impressive Anytime you win by double digits on the road in that type of game, that's a really impressive win.
00:12:42
Speaker 3: So, yeah, bad read by us.
00:12:44
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more.
00:12:47
Speaker 1: They played a game that they probably should have lost. Kyler found ways to win. He started 11 of 11 in the game. Maybe he's getting a little more comfortable after effects of the concussion, getting some real game time inside the offense and Again, we'll have to do our analysis during the week because we'll get a better sense how much of this was just the Saints' defense being absolutely atrocious. Two opportunistic plays. I said inside the Vikings' 10-yard line. It was inside the Saints' 10-yard line because if the Vikings don't turn those two plays over, they might win this game 34-3 because they were driving on both of those. So it'll be interesting to see, like, How much do we really give credit to the Vikings once we dig into the numbers a little bit more? Last game in, could argue this in one other game. Last game in, Chicago at Green Bay. We had said early in the week, we don't like the Bears in this spot. Tyson Bajent shouldn't really be a favorite of two and a half points on the road in a rivalry game. But the line moved against us, so we didn't feel comfortable really being aggressive about it on the show. We had both bet into the Packers. I bet the Packers on the money line. And then this morning, thank God for you, Simon, because I would have signed us off and I would not have brought this game up because I thought the number had moved too much.
00:14:21
Speaker 2: And you brought it up. You made a very good point.
00:14:24
Speaker 1: Do you remember the point that you made all those soft pretzels and Eagles misery 10 hours ago?
00:14:31
Speaker 4: I don't know if I said it was one of my bigger bets or is this was a trap or it was one of my bigger positions, but you said something about it being one point off.
00:14:38
Speaker 3: Like it should have been two and a half and it was one and a half. And you're worried about that.
00:14:40
Speaker 4: And I was just like, Chad, I didn't want to kill you about it.
00:14:43
Speaker 3: Cause it was eight in the morning. I was just like, dude, this ain't good. This one point ain't going to matter. My friend, I didn't want to tell you.
00:14:49
Speaker 2: That's what you said though.
00:14:50
Speaker 3: That's what you said.
00:14:51
Speaker 4: I didn't want to kill you cause you're a bears fan, but I was just like, this guy doesn't get it. Like, I think you saw that it was a trap line, but it's like, The Bears are supposed to lose this game by 10 here.
00:15:00
Speaker 3: It's a bad spot.
00:15:02
Speaker 2: It's why I bet the Packers on the money line.
00:15:04
Speaker 4: I was just shocked you questioned it because normally you would have been right there with me. It's like such a stinky line. But even you were just like, you don't care that the points, it's not two and a half. It's like, no, no one cares. They're about to get killed.
00:15:17
Speaker 2: We do talk about trying to get the best of the number here. And this one, we just weren't.
00:15:20
Speaker 4: Yeah, this game doesn't matter like that. Yeah, it's just, again, if it's Denver, like the Chargers, yes. If it was four and a half, I wouldn't have bet that. Minus four and a half.
00:15:27
Speaker 3: I agree with you.
00:15:28
Speaker 4: Best of the number of matters there. This game, it just, it stunk so bad. And I'd bet so heavy into it. It's like, if I get this wrong, bury me. I should no longer be a professional better. Cause it's just, it just wreaked high heavens where every bookmaker is like, yeah, 90% of the money right now is on the bears. It's like, Oh my God, people are just walking right into this one.
00:15:47
Speaker 3: So everything went right.
00:15:49
Speaker 1: I got, I got to, I, you know, we all, we're all, I'm with my wife and my younger son who's on fall break. So we took advantage of the extra time, and we were in Columbus, and we flew to Philly to see our older son. And so we were all watching the game. We got to his apartment in time to watch the whole game. It was, as a Packer better today, I was stress-free. As a Bears fan, I thought this game exposed all the things that we had said on Tuesday, right? The Bears have played one good offense so far this year, the Panthers. And they scored 59 points, but they gave up 30-something points. They haven't played another good offense this year. And I think they've been overvalued because if you look at their analytics, their analytics are great as a defense, but that's not really who they are. And we knew this was a game where they could just get thrashed, which is exactly what Jordan Love did in this game. He would just throw in bombs downfield nonstop.
00:16:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a game I thought they were going to get rolled, but everything went right for Green Bay. Yes.
00:16:56
Speaker 4: And that's my whole point with some of these games. I remember I said Case Keenum had the game of his life against the Eagles. That was a one-in-a-thousand type of game. And Bear Strange was like, oh, you don't get to bench out the system. I do give a ton of praise to Ben Johnson. I'm telling you, it's just impossible to throw off your back foot and have insane completions that go for touchdowns all the time.
00:17:17
Speaker 3: He just played out of this world. Even when he came in this game, he played better than Bajan.
00:17:21
Speaker 4: But it was just like Green Bay was just feeling themselves. They were just flying around defensively. Yeah, the most, by far, anyone that has watched Green Bay this year, it's by far the most complete game they've played. But like I said, all the deep balls with Jordan Love, what's a 50-50 ball was all, you know, 80-10, 90-10. Like, it's just, 90 times out of 10, his guy was coming down. Watson, insane, insane game. Golden, insane game. Both of them had like six catches, 144, 120-something receiving yards. So, um yeah like are we going to be super high on green bay now going forward no just simply played the spot situationally and it just yeah the line stunk so really happy to come out with the win on that one.
00:18:01
Speaker 1: Yes that was a nice one to change out especially because the other one we were thinking about was las vegas which we'll get to but there was a wild sequence in this game jordan love was unconscious he was just i almost feel like they were trying to embarrass the Bears because there is this rivalry, which is great. And I love that LeFleur and Ben Johnson, mostly Ben Johnson, will go after each other. But there was a sequence where they went deep to Christian Watson. He was interfered with.
00:18:29
Speaker 2: They didn't call it.
00:18:31
Speaker 1: The next play, they go deep the other side of the field, score a touchdown. They call the PI, offensive PI on the Packers. The very next play, down the center of the field to Christian Watson into double coverage. That's the play that you're talking about. He goes over the bear's safety and just grabs the ball in the back of the end zone. And I'm like, this is going to be a cakewalk today. This is one game. Like we've been asking for a game. We don't have to sweat. We finally got a freaking game. We don't have to sweat. We will have more on Jordan Love when it's time to talk about our heroes. Let me tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past if you wanted action on the game. You put some money in and if your team is doing well and you want to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge free. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading. on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweatpix together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10.
00:20:04
Speaker 2: All right. Let's talk about.
00:20:11
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos at the Los Angeles Chargers. We had the Broncos minus three and a half in the contest. We really were leaning into a couple of things here. All the injuries for the Chargers, offensive line injuries, receiver injuries, defensive injuries. We don't love their game plan. We're not high on Herbert. No one has any reason to be right now. But we also talked about Sean Payton taking over some of the play calling. And for three and a half quarters, it kind of didn't matter.
00:20:50
Speaker 2: They were terrible. And then they did what the Broncos do. I will tell you this.
00:20:57
Speaker 1: I think it was tied at 17, Simon, midway through the 4th. Sean Payton has fourth and one went for the field goal. I was, I was so spiteful in that moment. What was your take on his decision as a, forget about if you're betting the game, if you're not betting the game, you're like, Oh, that's the right call. Are you like, this is crazy. He should just go for the touchdown right here and then there'll be pinned back.
00:21:26
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:21:27
Speaker 4: There's no rhyme or reason in this league. I don't know what to think anymore. And every, every, Everything just doesn't make sense. What Harbaugh did at the end of the game doesn't make sense. What he did at the end of that game doesn't make sense. Your defense is dominating. Other than a couple of busted run plays and missed tackles, why would you not just pin Herbert on the one? I mean, okay, if you stop him, you don't get a safety. At least he's punting. You're back on their 50 or 40. It just was very bizarre when he kicked that three.
00:21:57
Speaker 3: The whole game was bizarre.
00:21:58
Speaker 4: Another game where I watched a ton of it because I– Honestly, it fell on me the decision to put that one in. You were never all in on this one. My view of it was just a lot of pros I knew that were on the Chargers side.
00:22:13
Speaker 3: Where I got their reasoning for it.
00:22:14
Speaker 4: I kept saying I feel like the market's not bringing in the fact that there's four rookie offensive linemen now on this Chargers side going against a team that has just been dying to just dominate a team. And Watching this game, I just can't get over how disinterested Bo Nix looks. I have no idea what's wrong with them and that offense. Sean Payton comes in and apparently took over the play calling duties. I've watched a lot of Denver film this year. It looked nothing different. This week, this game looked nothing different than the previous four games.
00:22:52
Speaker 3: I don't know. I have no idea what my opinion is going forward on Denver.
00:22:55
Speaker 4: I feel so lucky to have stolen this cover just because Denver dominated the first half and they're only up 10-3. And you could just see it as someone that had bet on this game. They went 0-8 on third down. They punted eight straight times in this game.
00:23:10
Speaker 3: The Denver.
00:23:10
Speaker 4: And we still somehow covered. Because that's how awful the Chargers are. That was my whole point for betting this. But, you know, you're not thinking that when we're losing this bet and Detroit's up by 21 points. And it's just like... I overthought that one way too much. Just because it's another thing where I invested so heavily in Detroit. I didn't get why it wasn't up to six.
00:23:28
Speaker 3: I just.
00:23:29
Speaker 4: I did not get that line at all that it didn't move to where I was betting it. So I don't know what we're going to do going forward with Denver. I am so happy not to bet them though, if we can for the next week or two, just because Bo Nix is truly painful in this game. He passed for 123 yards against that Chargers defense. I can't believe it. Like it's just, there's so something is so wrong right now at Denver, but yeah, I found a way to win. So thank you so much. We needed a three, two week desperately and they got it for us.
00:23:57
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, next week, the Broncos at home Thursday night, plus two and a half against the Seattle Seahawks.
00:24:07
Speaker 2: I'm so glad we can't put that one in the contest.
00:24:11
Speaker 1: I thought the only time I really saw a difference between Sean Payton play calling and Davis Webb play calling was once they got a little momentum in the second half of the fourth quarter. A couple of times they rolled Bo Nix out and like, that's usually when he's most comfortable. And then they had just a couple of great misdirection runs. But yeah, like this was a terrible, terrible offense. The Chargers weren't any better. It's just a joke to me to watch Mike McDaniel on that sideline. The amount of credit this guy has gotten, the amount of, enthusiasm there is for the way he dresses or because he wears a Rolex on the sidelines or because he's wearing tinted glasses or he's wearing ankle sweats. The guy's got more flash on the sideline than he does in the playbook. Like this team has just been atrocious. And I do think that all of the worst things that Justin Herbert, all of his worst habits that he used to be able to get away with, they are all coming to the fore now and And that offensive line is a big reason why I think he's broken because he doesn't trust him. So he's always like trying to force a pass, make the play, get out of the pocket. And it puts him in so many vulnerable positions. I mean, that second, that second half of that fourth quarter was just because the line couldn't protect him. And the Broncos kept beating him up and getting the ball wild. You're right about the Broncos.
00:25:40
Speaker 4: Once again, though, it's hard to blame too much on Herbert just because they don't have any receivers.
00:25:43
Speaker 3: They have no offensive line. It's, It's impossible.
00:25:47
Speaker 4: We're asking him to do something that's literally impossible. It's just the fact that you were going to steal that game. Like you said, if they just didn't have those stupid turnovers or went for their own 20 or whatever it was on 30, they probably would have just, you know, cover this game or easily could have won it, but they just, they couldn't get out of their own way. Like Herbert, like you said, his worst things are popping up where he's just trying to do too much. And it's, He's a competitive guy. So, like, yeah, he blessed us, honestly. He really did.
00:26:14
Speaker 3: He did.
00:26:15
Speaker 4: He just had all these stupid turnovers. I mean, he even had picks. He threw a pick, and they called it back on PI.
00:26:18
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:26:20
Speaker 4: And I just kept thinking, I don't care because I know he was going to give us another one. He just– he can't help it because he's trying to win this game, and it's always going to be third and ten. They couldn't run the ball either. It's just– everything happened with Broncos I thought was going to happen other than Bo Nix. He was just– I can't get over how bad he was. 123 passing yards, four carries for 10 yards. I mean, what is the point, Bo Nix? You're surrounded by a great offensive line, a ton of weapons against a horrible defense, and he did nothing.
00:26:47
Speaker 3: So that's what people can tell. Like, we won this game.
00:26:49
Speaker 4: I always so hate watching the second half of this game where it's like, I can't believe me and Chad are going to go two and three again where they should be winning this game by 20. But it's just Denver, I got to readjust. Denver is definitely not getting better, which I thought they would be at this time.
00:27:03
Speaker 3: They're just getting worse. It feels like more inconsistent.
00:27:07
Speaker 1: When Sean Payton, honest to God, when Sean Payton didn't go for the touchdown on that fourth and one, I was going to start rooting for the chargers just to spite Sean Payton. Like I was just so like, what are we doing here? Like, this is just idiotic. The thing I'll say about Herbert, we've seen this a million times with quarterbacks. At some point you kind of get bad habits and you get broken.
00:27:33
Speaker 2: Right.
00:27:34
Speaker 1: And if it happens again and again and again, He's had so much bad luck with injuries to his offensive line that have forced him to make decisions about how he's going to win a game that at some.
00:27:46
Speaker 2: Point it just becomes ingrained. It's hard to break out of that stuff.
00:27:48
Speaker 1: So it'll be curious for me when they finally get a healthy offensive line, can he actually do.
00:27:53
Speaker 2: Anything with it? Houston, this one, we didn't care about the number. It was seven.
00:27:59
Speaker 1: It was seven and a half in the contest. They were on the road at Tennessee. We kind of didn't hesitate.
00:28:07
Speaker 2: On this one.
00:28:09
Speaker 1: Texans scored on a Titans fumble. Texans were settling for field goals in the first half.
00:28:13
Speaker 2: They had four.
00:28:14
Speaker 1: Their drives on anemic offense. Ten plays, 49 yards. Six plays, 18 yards. Six plays, 34 yards. Six plays, 34 yards. The good news, they were playing against Cam Ward.
00:28:27
Speaker 2: Talk about broken. Dude, this is rough. Just rough.
00:28:34
Speaker 4: Yeah, always nice though when you basically get a free one from just the NFL season.
00:28:39
Speaker 3: We like, we, we joke, this was just an easy game.
00:28:42
Speaker 4: We try not to ever think we've seen this movie a thousand times and played out just as you thought. It's just, Texas are a good team. They had a really tough matchups. They had a couple of games that they could have won very end. Didn't break their way. So their own force to have two and two. So if they were two and two numbers, probably 10 and a half. And me and Chad don't bet this one. Like it's just simple as that. We knew we're getting three, maybe four points of value here. We didn't know we were getting 23 points of value, but we did though. Like I said, I would not be shocked that that was going to be a 30, 30 to three type of game.
00:29:16
Speaker 3: And it got right there. Cause it's just the Miko is such a good coach. And we joke.
00:29:20
Speaker 4: Once we heard, we both heard he had taken over play calling dude, which I also said I thought was going to happen.
00:29:26
Speaker 3: You saw it on the field. The defense just played at.
00:29:29
Speaker 4: A different level because they loved their coach and they knew they embarrassed them. That defense was, We talked about championship defense that we thought they were going to be coming into the season, and they just haven't been that level.
00:29:40
Speaker 3: In this game. They really were like Cam Ward.
00:29:43
Speaker 4: He's like you said, he's just so bad, so many bad habits. And in this game, they, they exposed all of them again. It's just, that's what good defenses do, especially against quarterbacks floundering like him. So yeah, CJ, you know, 34 pass attempts completed for 260 yards. So, It wasn't like he had to ask to do much. They had, you know, I think they're averaging four yards per carry offensively. So like you said, they were settling for field goals in the first half. If they scored touchdowns, it never would even have been even in the range of whatever it was, 12 to three, like a kind of a sweat. But yeah, that's another game. I'm just glad we didn't wake up this morning and talk ourselves out of it. We basically both disagreed to keep it, keep it moving, just put it in.
00:30:22
Speaker 3: So yeah. Yeah.
00:30:23
Speaker 4: I wish I'd obviously been more into it. It's just, man, you look at that number and it comes down to like seven. Some books are showing six and a half. It's just like, like I talked to some pros who did better. And it's just like, what are you guys betting here? So, uh, yeah, I wish, wish I obviously invested more in that Texas number.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: The game changing drive on that, that sort of made us finally feel comfortable after not looking good offensively in the first half, they opened the second half that went 17 plays, 74 yards and eight and a half minutes. It was never the same from there. Simon, um, Let's talk about, quickly, Las.
00:31:01
Speaker 2: Vegas, New England. We took it out.
00:31:04
Speaker 1: I think we felt like, I think I said this morning, we're trying to catch a falling knife here. Are we oversubscribed to a Raiders team that has been very competitive and has had Kirk in the perfect scheme, looking like he was 10 years younger, firing dimes into triple coverage? Or is Drake May and the Patriots on the ascent after a big win against Buffalo? The Raiders were so uncompetitive, it's hard to know if the Patriots are really on the ascent off of this game. Drake May was great. I think he counted for five touchdowns today. But I'm really glad we took it out and we came to our senses and we didn't get suckered into this sort of.
00:31:50
Speaker 2: Very public road underdog.
00:31:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, just brutal.
00:31:56
Speaker 4: Obviously, if you're someone that believed in the Raiders, this was like everything went wrong type of game. Their defense totally fell apart. Drake May looked like he did last year, just played an all-pro level. Like you said, five touchdowns, passed for 375 yards, just about. Just incredible game by the Patriots. I mean, we said they're down four cornerbacks. Their backups who played in the game played pretty well. Like early on in the game, there was huge openings and Brock Bowers was torching them, and they really settled in midway through the second quarter, it felt like, in the rest of the game. We said they were kind of due for a bad Kirk Cousins game, and he didn't play that poorly. He just couldn't get off the field on third downs. On the flip side, every time the Patriots.
00:32:40
Speaker 3: Touched the ball, it felt like they drove the field and scored a touchdown.
00:32:44
Speaker 4: People always ask, if you guys have it on your radar that it's a bad spot and you're taking it out, why don't you ever pick the other side? I guess it's a fair point. It's just a weird feeling because I've already bet it. Like I've already bought Vegas. Now we're putting Patriots in the contest, but that is a good point. Like I've had people bring that up, but we do that a lot where we take out these lines and we, cause we know they're no longer good.
00:33:04
Speaker 3: It's like, why don't we play the other side?
00:33:06
Speaker 4: But yeah, that was one of the bigger shellacans of the day, 45 to 17. So Vegas, like I said, this type of game, if they went in there and won this game, This is a team that we would be talking about fighting for their division come December. Now they're right back to, eh, maybe they'll be the seventh seed, most likely miss the playoffs. This really drops the Raiders' model view. I'm not going to have them anywhere near highly as great as they did coming into this game, I'll tell you that much. It's just a type of game that doesn't make or break your season, but it's a tone setter for a team's legit, really tough spot against a good team in the Patriots.
00:33:45
Speaker 3: Patriots lived up to that and much more here. They really, really impressed here with the big win.
00:33:50
Speaker 1: Quickly for Sunday night football, Baltimore and Atlanta, we know that Lamar Jackson isn't playing. You would bet into this game quite a bit. It's at three and a half, maybe three at some places now, but we didn't put it in the contest just because neither of us felt good about saying better to three and a half when it had been a much, much lower numbers.
00:34:17
Speaker 2: I'm still on Atlanta here. Yeah.
00:34:21
Speaker 4: Like I'm on Atlanta, but I just, you can't, you can't bet them a minus three and a half, even if they win a cover tonight, you're chasing a dead number and a bad number.
00:34:31
Speaker 3: It's just.
00:34:33
Speaker 4: To my, in my opinion, even though on Atlanta, I'm invested in them. I told you everything was below three. So plus three and a half, if I never had bet this game, I'll either take a position on the Ravens or do what I always say, which is if you miss the best of the number, you hope the Ravens get the ball to start off, drive the field, get a touchdown or a field goal. Now you have a much better number in Atlanta. So if you just want a way to get Atlanta, I don't hate them, but I just would only do it under three. I feel like Stu Ponley is not that bad. This should be a close game. And this could be a peak Atlanta. I mean, if Atlanta wins this, then it'll definitely be a peak. But Atlanta's coming off back to back. steam rolling of teams like putting up over 40 points in prime time type of games i mean it's just hard not to want to like chad said he wants to bet him he bet him i do too but i just don't want to give it out at a bad number so that's my problem here like atlanta could win big again tonight we know this is a really good match of them especially offensively though i just don't know what the rims could do to stop this falcons offense but i just hate telling people to bet a bad number which that's what this is right now it's a bad number for taking the falcons.
00:35:39
Speaker 1: Let's do a quick Monday night. Cause a lot of people are thinking about that game. The Rams are three and a half point favorites over the bills in Los Angeles. The numbers moved to full point, moved over a key number of three. It was a two and a half last week when we were thinking about Josh Allen on the bills, we were tempted at three and a half this morning, but we're a little bit wary because the number has moved the way it has with so little resistance. It's not just the public coming in on the Rams. There's, you know, we know there's wise guy money that is coming on this side too. So we're a little bit wary of taking the bills here.
00:36:18
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:36:18
Speaker 4: And the, the public's actually hammering the bills. This is all, all pros all over the Rams. And I told you, I've been trying to find out if all the rumors are true, if Josh Allen's actually heard.
00:36:30
Speaker 3: And is that why this number is moving? It's, it's gotta be something.
00:36:34
Speaker 4: Cause I just, I don't get it where, you know, There is no Miles Garrett in this game. And, yes, Puka and Devontae Adams, they should do well against this secondary that's got lit up last week by Drake May without his number one.
00:36:49
Speaker 3: Like, I get that whole opinion.
00:36:52
Speaker 4: You know, you could say what you want about this Bills team, their secondary, but they do have guys out in the front that have gone after the quarterbacks. And we've seen Stafford, early in the year, he has struggled with pressure. Like, that Eagles game took a miracle 14-point comeback. I mean, it was just– They haven't been consistent either, the Stafford team. So it's really hard for me. It's like I want to be with the public on the Bills. But especially after today, we both know that's most likely a losing bet.
00:37:19
Speaker 3: The public has just got absolutely killed this week.
00:37:21
Speaker 4: So I already bet the Bills in teasers. So, like, I have them in 9.5 and 8.5. So maybe I'll keep waiting this one out and see if this number goes up to 4, if the pros keep hitting it. Like, I just– Either way, I feel like I don't have to rush if I want to bet the bills. On the flip side, if you want the Rams and you can still get minus three, I'd take that position at this point because I just know the professionals are going to keep hitting the Rams. They know something, and I'm clearly missing it. I wish I was more dug in on that one because it's such a fun game. It's such a great matchup. I wish I was more opinionated on it, but I'm missing something here because I can't believe Josh Allen's three-and-a-half-point favorite.
00:38:02
Speaker 3: It's just.
00:38:03
Speaker 4: It feels like we're missing an easy gift here where it's like, okay, he always has the ball at the end of the game and he's losing by three. He's never getting blown out by more than that. It takes a miracle for him to lose by more than that. So, yeah, it's very telling the book's taking this position here with this ramp side.
00:38:19
Speaker 1: Hero of the week, Simon. For me, there's no doubt. Jordan Love, 25 of 31, 367 yards.
00:38:25
Speaker 2: Two touchdowns, a passer rating of 137.
00:38:33
Speaker 1: Point five, if ever a team needed this game against this team in this spot, it was the Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears. For me, as a Bears fan, in the week that Mike Dick had died, RIP, let's pour it out for the guy that I think is probably the second most influential person in the history of the Bears franchise after George Hallis.
00:39:01
Speaker 2: This was a classic. emotional hedge.
00:39:05
Speaker 1: As a secondary hero, Simon, it is to you, my BFF, for bringing this up because I was not going to do it. I played the Packers money line. I was not going to bring this up this morning. Thank God you did because it knocked out the bet that would have put us at two and three with the Las Vegas Raiders.
00:39:25
Speaker 4: I'll go with my air of the week, D'Amico Ryan's just everything I said, Houston's defense was going to do.
00:39:30
Speaker 3: They, they really showed up and did it. And then some, they were really impressive today and that's really needed it. That team desperately needed. And it's just impressive.
00:39:40
Speaker 4: When we see Houston doing what they did in this game, it's only give up three points and just dominate from start to finish.
00:39:47
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:39:48
Speaker 4: Got, got to give him props. It's just, Such a pressure spot. They could have easily folded up here and still could have won, but not covered for us.
00:39:57
Speaker 3: But no, no, no brainer. Blew him out.
00:40:00
Speaker 4: One of our easy bets of the week. So yeah, Demico Ryan's here.
00:40:03
Speaker 3: Of the week.
00:40:04
Speaker 1: I feel like we're going to be aligned on this one. Shame, shame, shame on you, Dan Quinn. not just for the OT, not deciding to kick it, not the incompetence at the end of the overtime, but for the entire second half of the fourth quarter, giving up two touchdowns to Jameis Winston in the final seven and a half minutes when you're up 14 points is absolutely shameful. They never should have been in the position of having to make decisions in overtime the way they were.
00:40:52
Speaker 2: You stop them once. You stop them on one drive, and this game is over. Shame, shame, shame. Dan Quinn.
00:41:02
Speaker 3: I've got to go with Shuck. I can't get over how bad it was in that game watching.
00:41:14
Speaker 4: Shame on you, Shuck. 96 passing yards in a full game. Not a single rushing attempt, which also blew my mind. You're not this 30-year vet, man. You're 26, 27 years old.
00:41:26
Speaker 3: Use your legs. It's what you've been so good with early in the year.
00:41:29
Speaker 4: Is getting out of the pocket when there's no one open downfield instead of forcing terrible throws. I mean, that game was so brutal. Yeah, two picks, 96 yards pass, and zero rushing attempts. Just a total nothing from Shuck in a game that, they were begging for the Vikings. They were literally going stack box. I think they are giving up three yards per, three yards per carry in this game against the Saints team. They just literally were like beat a shuck and he could not do it.
00:41:59
Speaker 3: So shame on you.
00:42:01
Speaker 4: Sorry, Saints, but it looks like you're going to be in the market for quarterback where he's just every, every defense that has some semblance of a secondary, he's done nothing this year.
00:42:10
Speaker 3: And I got it against bad team. He lights them up.
00:42:12
Speaker 4: But I was dying for that second half, second half magic where, We're going to halftime up 7-6, Chad, at home.
00:42:20
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:42:20
Speaker 4: And we don't cover the number. We lose this bet. It's just– it's all on you, Shuck.
00:42:24
Speaker 3: It really is.
00:42:26
Speaker 1: All right.
00:42:27
Speaker 2: Some early leanings.
00:42:29
Speaker 1: Two games– well, a few games stood out to me. Two games immediately stood out to me. Carolina Panthers on the road. One-and-a-half point underdogs. Yeah. immediately saw that. They're playing the Eagles. We assume Saquon might be back. Devontae Smith might be back. But how am I not betting on Bryce Young as a road underdog? Because that's the spot that we always like to bet on Bryce Young against a team that is struggling and might have some real offensive line issues, even if the Panthers' defense isn't very good.
00:43:11
Speaker 3: I don't know, but it's definitely another sucker bet.
00:43:13
Speaker 4: You know it is, but I don't hate it because I think if you grab it now, they could flip to being a favorite.
00:43:19
Speaker 2: That's kind of why I did it.
00:43:20
Speaker 3: If you're talking strictly.
00:43:21
Speaker 4: Value, yes, bet it, but this is going to be another 80% of the bets, 80% of the money is going to be on the Panthers.
00:43:27
Speaker 3: Same today with the Jags. There's no difference.
00:43:30
Speaker 4: Even if you won on the Eagles today, you still felt like you lost because it was just such an embarrassing loss. I have no idea what the early money is doing right now, but just I'm guessing, I think pros and the public would join chat and they will bet Carolina. So I don't hate it. Honestly, maybe I'll bet if it's plus 110 right now, their money line or something. But if you just want to grab the plus one and a half, I don't hate that either on Carolina.
00:43:50
Speaker 1: Colts minus six and a half hosting the Titans. I really grabbed it because I.
00:43:56
Speaker 2: Think it's going to move.
00:43:56
Speaker 3: Let's go back to the well.
00:43:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to move to seven. One place already moved it to seven. It's at minus 115 in a lot of places. I just wanted to get it because I feel like when we do more research, we're going to be like, Yeah, what are we doing here?
00:44:11
Speaker 2: So give me the Colts touchdown to cover.
00:44:17
Speaker 3: Totally fair.
00:44:19
Speaker 1: The last one, Cleveland's a four-and-a-half point home underdog against the Ravens.
00:44:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's already at three-and-a-half. So, yeah, if you can get four-and-a-half.
00:44:29
Speaker 2: Oh, it is.
00:44:29
Speaker 4: Yeah, grab it. One thing, we don't know who the quarterback is for the Ravens. We expect Lamar will be back.
00:44:37
Speaker 3: If he is.
00:44:39
Speaker 4: Maybe this does go up to five and a half, six and a half, who knows? So I wouldn't go too crazy on Cleveland right now, but this feels a little bit like a Lamar line. The fact that they're already hanging plus four and a half, plus three and a half. So I don't mind that stuff. I bet I made it before it came.
00:44:54
Speaker 3: On the air.
00:44:55
Speaker 2: What am I missing?
00:44:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, it jumped out to me right away. Just based off just lines that look funky. Tampa's plus three at home. Against Pittsburgh.
00:45:10
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:45:11
Speaker 4: I thought that was interesting just because Pittsburgh was so dominant. I felt like today, but that'd be a bigger, even though Tampa, you know, covered one and covered. And I'm sure the public got more sediment on them. I just, I'm shocked. You can get plus three, plus three and a half on that opening number. Bears plus one and a.
00:45:27
Speaker 3: Half at Atlanta. I know.
00:45:32
Speaker 4: I mean, usually I, usually I take a position on where I think the line is going to go. And I obviously think Atlanta is going to win tonight. So, I know I'm supposed to take a position on them, but that just jumps out to me right away. That's a fishy line. Like, that's them saying Caleb's going to be back.
00:45:46
Speaker 2: Yep.
00:45:47
Speaker 3: I'll grab it.
00:45:48
Speaker 4: Just in case Soup Huntley rolls Atlanta tonight and maybe this line flips when it's Caleb Williams. So, it's just– I don't know if I'll have my position, like, heavy next week on the Bears, but that line jumped out right away just because they played so bad.
00:46:03
Speaker 3: I just– Ben Johnson's such a good coach. I expect them to bounce back.
00:46:06
Speaker 2: Yep.
00:46:07
Speaker 4: The type of guy I believe in, especially coaching-wise, it was kind of the same thing I did with Detroit today with Dan Campbell. It's like you get embarrassed like that in those type of games, you bounce back. Now Detroit was way better than I could have ever perceived. It's kind of the same feeling here with the Bears. It's just you expect a big bounce back. I can't believe the Bucs hung them at that number because I thought I opened at plus three. So very telling the Bucs to hang the plus one. So once again, don't need to grab it right now if you don't want to. Just one that jumped out to me in. Another game that is very interesting, the way the books hung it, they're letting the public decide, is Sunday night, Green Bay versus Dallas. Green Bay is minus one and a half against Dallas. Right away, it's like, don't we just hammer Dallas? Everyone in the world was all over them on Thursday night.
00:46:55
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed.
00:46:58
Speaker 4: And that's the type of game where we bet it and we know it's a true, we're flipping a coin because it's going to come down to the defense here. I don't know if Green Bay should be favored over them just because they kind of had this fluke blowout win here. It feels like a total overreaction.
00:47:13
Speaker 3: By the books. That's another one where I don't need to rush to bet the Cowboys.
00:47:17
Speaker 4: I honestly think I can get plus two and a half. I can be patient here and try to get the best number, but just was interested. A couple books opened them at plus one. Already moved Dallas to plus one and a half. I know we got to get out of here because this game is on the start, but one more. I know we won't bet them, but The Saints, they're plus one and a half at the Giants. So that's another one that's just– I like the books are just letting it– letting the people decide. They can't decide that one either because Shuck looks so bad. You should be betting the Saints here, right? Like we've seen that data of teams that are favorite after playing an overtime game. It's never an ideal spot, right? It's like whatever their– how many extra snaps their defense play. And that was a very physical game against– Washington. So I know we can't do it, but we're supposed to. So that's going to be a fun conversation this coming week about what we're going to do that same summer. Cause I don't want to touch it right now, but it's like screaming at me, grab this now. So another funny, fun number this week.
00:48:18
Speaker 2: All right, folks, that's our show.
00:48:21
Speaker 1: Go brewers says our Milwaukee native producer, Matt Mitchell. We will be back on Tuesday with our NFL week, six betting preview. This has been sharper square. sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, lose five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Tuesday, love you.
00:48:50
Speaker 3: Stomping your feet, clapping your hands.
00:48:53
Speaker 4: You're part of the team sitting in the stands. Come see what's brewing.
00:49:00
Speaker 3: The Milwaukee Brewers.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square. We are brought to you by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
00:00:13
Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman.
00:00:14
Speaker 1: I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my co-host, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
00:00:22
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
00:00:24
Speaker 3: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:26
Speaker 2: Brother, second show today. Second show.
00:00:30
Speaker 1: Westin Hotel for me this time in the fighting city of Philadelphia, not too far from you.
00:00:34
Speaker 2: Dude, this morning we did our show.
00:00:38
Speaker 1: We had a flurry of last minute changes to the lineup. Last ones in were the Bears and the Broncos. Last ones out were the Raiders and Lions. It's rare we change out two games. and go 2-0 on both of those games. It was that kind of day. Dude, before we get there, I know you got a lot of.
00:01:05
Speaker 2: Family in England.
00:01:06
Speaker 1: I know a lot of them were at the game today between the Eagles and the Jags. Honest to God, I thought they had found what could be the most remarkable way to lose a game until Washington, which we'll get to. I had just landed in Philly when it happened. I think I heard the entire city scream at the same time.
00:01:28
Speaker 2: Man.
00:01:31
Speaker 3: Yeah. Awful, awful experience.
00:01:34
Speaker 4: But, um, yeah, that's not that I scoffed you when you said, are the Eagles tank in the season, but it's just, I knew this team was never going to quit. They're never going to give up with a guy like Jalen Hurts playing quarterback for them. But, um, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter how much talent or, you know, how hard your guys play for coaches and idiot. They'll make mistakes into these games and cost you games. So, um, Yeah, I honestly don't even want to talk about it that much because it took me like two hours to get over it. I told Chad I ate like four Philly soft pretzels, just super eating my feelings, sadness after the fact. So, yeah, I honestly can't wrap my head around it. As soon as it ended, I tried to bear it away because it's like, you know how it is as a fan. Those are the type of games that can ruin your week. Like you just– it's so painful to lose that way in a game that you dominated, you've stolen, you've won against– A team that people viewed as a top three, top four AFC type of team.
00:02:31
Speaker 3: So, yeah, awful, awful way.
00:02:34
Speaker 4: My cousins, like Chad said, I had family in England at the game. God bless them. They were so happy, so excited. And that was probably just a horrible experience. So, yeah, really tough.
00:02:44
Speaker 1: I thought it was just going to be like heart of a champion Philly defense, the way they handled it. The Jaguars hurt themselves, too. They had so many penalties, more than 100 yards in penalties. Every time they sort of took a step forward, they were taking two steps back because of holdings, pre-snaps, delay games. I mean, there were a lot of classic Trevor Lawrence miscues in there. In the end, there were some other moments today. The Miami Dolphins, who maybe touched seven early in the week, spent most of the week at 6.5 points. underdogs have a chance for the backdoor cover, miss an extra point to lose the game by seven. So all those wise guy dolphins backers who were on Miami, thank freaking God. We knew enough to stay away from this game, dude.
00:03:39
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:03:39
Speaker 4: But nightmare, nightmare scenario for the sports books. Cause they just let the public hammer the six and a half on Cincy.
00:03:46
Speaker 2: Yes.
00:03:46
Speaker 4: Cause they knew exactly how that was going to play out, which, I mean, we both talked.
00:03:50
Speaker 3: That was just a.
00:03:51
Speaker 4: Fishy, fishy number all week. But just brutal. Like we talk all the time, sportsbooks, no one's going to feel bad for them. But they had the 7.5 up. The professionals hammered it. And then they moved to 6.5, and the public hammered that, and they just lost on both. So, yeah, nothing you can do. You can have the perfect model. Still all comes down to the players on the field. And that was, like you said, that was insane when it landed right on that number.
00:04:15
Speaker 1: All right, let's start with– we're going to get into our NFL Week 5 reactions. We're going to recap the glory and the misery of the day. We are 3-2. The day is done. One of those rare weeks. We don't have a Sunday night game. We don't have a Monday night game. A winning week for us with the Broncos, with the Packers, with the Texans. We lost with the Saints, and we lost– with the Washington Commanders, which is where we are going to start. Jason, my buddy in the Discord, made a point. All four NFC East teams today walked away without a win, and two of them played each other because the New York Giants, who were three-and-a-half-point underdogs, the Washington Commanders, tied the Commanders 27-27. No one wanted to win the game. How else do you explain it? I'll set it up. I'm sure everyone's seen it by now. Cam Scadaboo fumbles the ball, driving in commander's territory. All they have to do is hold on to the ball with less than two minutes left. The Giants, they're going to kick a game-winning field goal.
00:05:30
Speaker 2: He fumbles.
00:05:32
Speaker 1: The commanders get all the way to the other end of the field. They got 15 seconds left. They have a full play clock. They run a play with no timeouts. Jaden Daniels can't get everybody back on the ball. And they end up not kicking a field goal. The game ends in a tie. We're going to get to shame on you, but there were just miscues, bad decisions, incompetent decisions. That's really what it was. It was coaching malpractice by the Washington Commanders.
00:06:01
Speaker 4: It was, but it's, I mean, at the end of the day, they got Jameis. Like, it's just, he did nothing. I mean, he had okay for half a quarter. And basically played possum, did nothing. Washington gets that two-pointer. They're up 14, seven minutes to go. And I knew, okay, well, Jameis is either going to drive the field here, get a touchdown, or throw a pick.
00:06:21
Speaker 3: He drove the field, got a touchdown.
00:06:23
Speaker 4: I think it was on like a fourth down he scored the touchdown, too. Just classic Jameis. Okay, Washington's getting the ball back. Me and Chad are still up seven. We need, what, one or two first downs here, and this game's over. Three and out, punt. Jameis gets the ball. and just multiple times where like they had penalties and they got sacked. And every time Jameis got them, the deep play where, you know, Dan Quinn thinks he's Brian Flores and he's just going to blitz every down where a guy like Winston, you just run zones. You, you make him pick apart your defense. He will eventually will throw one up and get picked. Instead of he's giving them one-on-ones of the outside and neighbors and neighbors is winning that every time downfield. So, um, Yeah, just brutal no-cover. It all kind of broke the way we thought, right? Jandino's had a great game.
00:07:08
Speaker 3: Exactly. Played incredible. And Dan Quinn, once again, is supposed to be a defensive mind. Terrible.
00:07:15
Speaker 4: And, yeah, you're more upset than I am, obviously, about the overtime. I was super mad that he won the 20 toss and decided to kick to the Giants. So no matter what, our bet was dead.
00:07:26
Speaker 2: Dead.
00:07:27
Speaker 4: So I was literally praying for a tie. Once that happened, I was either hoping for a pick six or a tie. and luckily it ended in a tie because I just– I didn't think Dan Quinn deserved to win that game with that team, but at the same time, the Giants, like you said, the scatterbow fumble, they didn't deserve to win that either, right?
00:07:46
Speaker 3: They had the game.
00:07:47
Speaker 4: He turned it over, and they're just as happy as anyone else to win or get that tie.
00:07:52
Speaker 3: They couldn't believe it. The people– I mean, the more shocking part too, I know you were traveling.
00:07:56
Speaker 4: I don't know if you were watching the game with the volume on, The announcers didn't know what was happening with G.A.
00:08:00
Speaker 2: Daniels.
00:08:01
Speaker 3: They were so nonchalant, too, until they realized, oh, they don't have a timeout either. The way G.A. Daniels played that was if he thought they had a timeout. They were just so nonchalant.
00:08:08
Speaker 4: Even the announcers thought that until they heard the moan of the crowd and they started panicking. I can't remember the last time it's happened. I know it does happen. It feels like every other year, but I honestly can't remember. Just probably the worst ending to a game. If you're a fan of the Washington community, you could possibly ask for it. You blew a 14-point lead now. You blew an easy field goal. I mean, they're the 20-yard line, so just brutal.
00:08:32
Speaker 2: I'm watching.
00:08:32
Speaker 1: I keep looking up because I was keeping an eye on the Niners-Seahawks game, which is now over. Niners win 32-29 on the road. Devin combined turnovers in this game. Seahawks gave the ball up, I think, twice inside their own 10 and once inside their own end zone on a kneel down at the end of the half, so. Those are the differences for the Seattle Seahawks, which was a brutal, brutal beat for us Seahawks backers. We nailed this commander's game. That's what's frustrating about it. Jaden Daniels, third and 11 in the rain, straight up the field, no fear, puts his shoulder down for their first field goal. He had went 38 yards up the middle, midway through the third to go up 19 to six, longest rushing touchdown of his career, nine rushes, 103 yards, two touchdowns.
00:09:26
Speaker 2: Here's what was interesting. You just said we got Jameis. I'm going to give you the stats.
00:09:30
Speaker 1: In the first half, Jameis goes 7 of 16, no touchdowns. In the second half, just in the second half, and overtime, 26 of 38, 254, three touchdowns, including the game-tying touchdown pass to Malik Nabors with less than two minutes left.
00:09:51
Speaker 2: That's rough.
00:09:51
Speaker 1: That's what you get when you play with fire. You play with Jameis. You play with Dan Quinn. That's what you're going to get. Let's talk about the other loser on our slate today. Minnesota.
00:10:01
Speaker 2: At New Orleans.
00:10:02
Speaker 1: New Orleans was a two and a half point dog. We were never getting out of the way of this one. We both wanted to be on New Orleans. We wanted to back Tyler Shuck. We wanted to back Tyler Shuck at home. We didn't think the Minnesota offense was good enough. We were playing with fire, really playing with fire on this one. And it turns out the New Orleans defense is what could make the Minnesota offense finally look good, even when Minnesota was turning the ball over inside their own 10-yard line twice.
00:10:39
Speaker 3: Exactly. We played the spot.
00:10:42
Speaker 4: We know the Saints are not that good of a team. We've said it a million times. It's a bad team. But Shuck gave us nothing. He threw for 96 yards. Flores did his thing, obviously. I mean, he could throw his 96 yards, two picks. We had our hopes up because he started so well against bad defenses, Shuck. But we've seen here now, I mean, if it keeps going this way, they're obviously going to be in the market for a quarterback.
00:11:05
Speaker 3: He's just not the guy.
00:11:06
Speaker 4: And this is the situation where if he had just gave them a C plus, a B minus type of game, they easily cover possibly win this game. Just because we talked about it, this Vikings offense, they're just not right yet.
00:11:21
Speaker 3: And Kyler played much.
00:11:22
Speaker 4: Better in this game, but a lot of it was down to his legs. Like they had a couple of third and 11s. He uses legs to get the first downs. Um, Justin Jefferson's touchdown was in a triple coverage. It was like a once, you know, perfect ball, a little bit of push off by Jeff Jefferson, but like insane back of the corner touchdown. Um, then we get basically we're dead in this game and they get that fumble car.
00:11:43
Speaker 3: We take the other way to score a touchdown, the saints.
00:11:45
Speaker 2: And miss the extra point, miss the point.
00:11:47
Speaker 3: And that's where I thought we were dead.
00:11:48
Speaker 4: Cause in my mind it was like, okay, now we're back in it and we have a weird number now.
00:11:52
Speaker 3: Cause I think at the time it was going to be 14 to 13. Yeah.
00:11:55
Speaker 4: And yeah, respect the collar.
00:11:57
Speaker 3: Murray drove right down the field and he got the ball back, scored a touchdown. And this week, like we'll talk about a bunch of games. I love this week.
00:12:04
Speaker 4: Cause we talk about all the traps. It's the traps of, Are you a playoff team or are you not? Are you for real or are you not? Minnesota won this game. They were not supposed to. They were supposed to stumble in this game. They're for real. I mean, just across the board, they're getting so little from their quarterback the past couple weeks, and Kyler did enough in this week that it really stood out, right? We saw him, once he was able to get the safeties to drop back, now they're able to run it. I think they ran it for another 100 yards this game. So it's just, if Kyler can figure it out, the Vikings, they're just going to keep getting better. They're just a scary team, honestly. So that was a really impressive Anytime you win by double digits on the road in that type of game, that's a really impressive win.
00:12:42
Speaker 3: So, yeah, bad read by us.
00:12:44
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more.
00:12:47
Speaker 1: They played a game that they probably should have lost. Kyler found ways to win. He started 11 of 11 in the game. Maybe he's getting a little more comfortable after effects of the concussion, getting some real game time inside the offense and Again, we'll have to do our analysis during the week because we'll get a better sense how much of this was just the Saints' defense being absolutely atrocious. Two opportunistic plays. I said inside the Vikings' 10-yard line. It was inside the Saints' 10-yard line because if the Vikings don't turn those two plays over, they might win this game 34-3 because they were driving on both of those. So it'll be interesting to see, like, How much do we really give credit to the Vikings once we dig into the numbers a little bit more? Last game in, could argue this in one other game. Last game in, Chicago at Green Bay. We had said early in the week, we don't like the Bears in this spot. Tyson Bajent shouldn't really be a favorite of two and a half points on the road in a rivalry game. But the line moved against us, so we didn't feel comfortable really being aggressive about it on the show. We had both bet into the Packers. I bet the Packers on the money line. And then this morning, thank God for you, Simon, because I would have signed us off and I would not have brought this game up because I thought the number had moved too much.
00:14:21
Speaker 2: And you brought it up. You made a very good point.
00:14:24
Speaker 1: Do you remember the point that you made all those soft pretzels and Eagles misery 10 hours ago?
00:14:31
Speaker 4: I don't know if I said it was one of my bigger bets or is this was a trap or it was one of my bigger positions, but you said something about it being one point off.
00:14:38
Speaker 3: Like it should have been two and a half and it was one and a half. And you're worried about that.
00:14:40
Speaker 4: And I was just like, Chad, I didn't want to kill you about it.
00:14:43
Speaker 3: Cause it was eight in the morning. I was just like, dude, this ain't good. This one point ain't going to matter. My friend, I didn't want to tell you.
00:14:49
Speaker 2: That's what you said though.
00:14:50
Speaker 3: That's what you said.
00:14:51
Speaker 4: I didn't want to kill you cause you're a bears fan, but I was just like, this guy doesn't get it. Like, I think you saw that it was a trap line, but it's like, The Bears are supposed to lose this game by 10 here.
00:15:00
Speaker 3: It's a bad spot.
00:15:02
Speaker 2: It's why I bet the Packers on the money line.
00:15:04
Speaker 4: I was just shocked you questioned it because normally you would have been right there with me. It's like such a stinky line. But even you were just like, you don't care that the points, it's not two and a half. It's like, no, no one cares. They're about to get killed.
00:15:17
Speaker 2: We do talk about trying to get the best of the number here. And this one, we just weren't.
00:15:20
Speaker 4: Yeah, this game doesn't matter like that. Yeah, it's just, again, if it's Denver, like the Chargers, yes. If it was four and a half, I wouldn't have bet that. Minus four and a half.
00:15:27
Speaker 3: I agree with you.
00:15:28
Speaker 4: Best of the number of matters there. This game, it just, it stunk so bad. And I'd bet so heavy into it. It's like, if I get this wrong, bury me. I should no longer be a professional better. Cause it's just, it just wreaked high heavens where every bookmaker is like, yeah, 90% of the money right now is on the bears. It's like, Oh my God, people are just walking right into this one.
00:15:47
Speaker 3: So everything went right.
00:15:49
Speaker 1: I got, I got to, I, you know, we all, we're all, I'm with my wife and my younger son who's on fall break. So we took advantage of the extra time, and we were in Columbus, and we flew to Philly to see our older son. And so we were all watching the game. We got to his apartment in time to watch the whole game. It was, as a Packer better today, I was stress-free. As a Bears fan, I thought this game exposed all the things that we had said on Tuesday, right? The Bears have played one good offense so far this year, the Panthers. And they scored 59 points, but they gave up 30-something points. They haven't played another good offense this year. And I think they've been overvalued because if you look at their analytics, their analytics are great as a defense, but that's not really who they are. And we knew this was a game where they could just get thrashed, which is exactly what Jordan Love did in this game. He would just throw in bombs downfield nonstop.
00:16:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a game I thought they were going to get rolled, but everything went right for Green Bay. Yes.
00:16:56
Speaker 4: And that's my whole point with some of these games. I remember I said Case Keenum had the game of his life against the Eagles. That was a one-in-a-thousand type of game. And Bear Strange was like, oh, you don't get to bench out the system. I do give a ton of praise to Ben Johnson. I'm telling you, it's just impossible to throw off your back foot and have insane completions that go for touchdowns all the time.
00:17:17
Speaker 3: He just played out of this world. Even when he came in this game, he played better than Bajan.
00:17:21
Speaker 4: But it was just like Green Bay was just feeling themselves. They were just flying around defensively. Yeah, the most, by far, anyone that has watched Green Bay this year, it's by far the most complete game they've played. But like I said, all the deep balls with Jordan Love, what's a 50-50 ball was all, you know, 80-10, 90-10. Like, it's just, 90 times out of 10, his guy was coming down. Watson, insane, insane game. Golden, insane game. Both of them had like six catches, 144, 120-something receiving yards. So, um yeah like are we going to be super high on green bay now going forward no just simply played the spot situationally and it just yeah the line stunk so really happy to come out with the win on that one.
00:18:01
Speaker 1: Yes that was a nice one to change out especially because the other one we were thinking about was las vegas which we'll get to but there was a wild sequence in this game jordan love was unconscious he was just i almost feel like they were trying to embarrass the Bears because there is this rivalry, which is great. And I love that LeFleur and Ben Johnson, mostly Ben Johnson, will go after each other. But there was a sequence where they went deep to Christian Watson. He was interfered with.
00:18:29
Speaker 2: They didn't call it.
00:18:31
Speaker 1: The next play, they go deep the other side of the field, score a touchdown. They call the PI, offensive PI on the Packers. The very next play, down the center of the field to Christian Watson into double coverage. That's the play that you're talking about. He goes over the bear's safety and just grabs the ball in the back of the end zone. And I'm like, this is going to be a cakewalk today. This is one game. Like we've been asking for a game. We don't have to sweat. We finally got a freaking game. We don't have to sweat. We will have more on Jordan Love when it's time to talk about our heroes. Let me tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past if you wanted action on the game. You put some money in and if your team is doing well and you want to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge free. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading. on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweatpix together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10.
00:20:04
Speaker 2: All right. Let's talk about.
00:20:11
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos at the Los Angeles Chargers. We had the Broncos minus three and a half in the contest. We really were leaning into a couple of things here. All the injuries for the Chargers, offensive line injuries, receiver injuries, defensive injuries. We don't love their game plan. We're not high on Herbert. No one has any reason to be right now. But we also talked about Sean Payton taking over some of the play calling. And for three and a half quarters, it kind of didn't matter.
00:20:50
Speaker 2: They were terrible. And then they did what the Broncos do. I will tell you this.
00:20:57
Speaker 1: I think it was tied at 17, Simon, midway through the 4th. Sean Payton has fourth and one went for the field goal. I was, I was so spiteful in that moment. What was your take on his decision as a, forget about if you're betting the game, if you're not betting the game, you're like, Oh, that's the right call. Are you like, this is crazy. He should just go for the touchdown right here and then there'll be pinned back.
00:21:26
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:21:27
Speaker 4: There's no rhyme or reason in this league. I don't know what to think anymore. And every, every, Everything just doesn't make sense. What Harbaugh did at the end of the game doesn't make sense. What he did at the end of that game doesn't make sense. Your defense is dominating. Other than a couple of busted run plays and missed tackles, why would you not just pin Herbert on the one? I mean, okay, if you stop him, you don't get a safety. At least he's punting. You're back on their 50 or 40. It just was very bizarre when he kicked that three.
00:21:57
Speaker 3: The whole game was bizarre.
00:21:58
Speaker 4: Another game where I watched a ton of it because I– Honestly, it fell on me the decision to put that one in. You were never all in on this one. My view of it was just a lot of pros I knew that were on the Chargers side.
00:22:13
Speaker 3: Where I got their reasoning for it.
00:22:14
Speaker 4: I kept saying I feel like the market's not bringing in the fact that there's four rookie offensive linemen now on this Chargers side going against a team that has just been dying to just dominate a team. And Watching this game, I just can't get over how disinterested Bo Nix looks. I have no idea what's wrong with them and that offense. Sean Payton comes in and apparently took over the play calling duties. I've watched a lot of Denver film this year. It looked nothing different. This week, this game looked nothing different than the previous four games.
00:22:52
Speaker 3: I don't know. I have no idea what my opinion is going forward on Denver.
00:22:55
Speaker 4: I feel so lucky to have stolen this cover just because Denver dominated the first half and they're only up 10-3. And you could just see it as someone that had bet on this game. They went 0-8 on third down. They punted eight straight times in this game.
00:23:10
Speaker 3: The Denver.
00:23:10
Speaker 4: And we still somehow covered. Because that's how awful the Chargers are. That was my whole point for betting this. But, you know, you're not thinking that when we're losing this bet and Detroit's up by 21 points. And it's just like... I overthought that one way too much. Just because it's another thing where I invested so heavily in Detroit. I didn't get why it wasn't up to six.
00:23:28
Speaker 3: I just.
00:23:29
Speaker 4: I did not get that line at all that it didn't move to where I was betting it. So I don't know what we're going to do going forward with Denver. I am so happy not to bet them though, if we can for the next week or two, just because Bo Nix is truly painful in this game. He passed for 123 yards against that Chargers defense. I can't believe it. Like it's just, there's so something is so wrong right now at Denver, but yeah, I found a way to win. So thank you so much. We needed a three, two week desperately and they got it for us.
00:23:57
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, next week, the Broncos at home Thursday night, plus two and a half against the Seattle Seahawks.
00:24:07
Speaker 2: I'm so glad we can't put that one in the contest.
00:24:11
Speaker 1: I thought the only time I really saw a difference between Sean Payton play calling and Davis Webb play calling was once they got a little momentum in the second half of the fourth quarter. A couple of times they rolled Bo Nix out and like, that's usually when he's most comfortable. And then they had just a couple of great misdirection runs. But yeah, like this was a terrible, terrible offense. The Chargers weren't any better. It's just a joke to me to watch Mike McDaniel on that sideline. The amount of credit this guy has gotten, the amount of, enthusiasm there is for the way he dresses or because he wears a Rolex on the sidelines or because he's wearing tinted glasses or he's wearing ankle sweats. The guy's got more flash on the sideline than he does in the playbook. Like this team has just been atrocious. And I do think that all of the worst things that Justin Herbert, all of his worst habits that he used to be able to get away with, they are all coming to the fore now and And that offensive line is a big reason why I think he's broken because he doesn't trust him. So he's always like trying to force a pass, make the play, get out of the pocket. And it puts him in so many vulnerable positions. I mean, that second, that second half of that fourth quarter was just because the line couldn't protect him. And the Broncos kept beating him up and getting the ball wild. You're right about the Broncos.
00:25:40
Speaker 4: Once again, though, it's hard to blame too much on Herbert just because they don't have any receivers.
00:25:43
Speaker 3: They have no offensive line. It's, It's impossible.
00:25:47
Speaker 4: We're asking him to do something that's literally impossible. It's just the fact that you were going to steal that game. Like you said, if they just didn't have those stupid turnovers or went for their own 20 or whatever it was on 30, they probably would have just, you know, cover this game or easily could have won it, but they just, they couldn't get out of their own way. Like Herbert, like you said, his worst things are popping up where he's just trying to do too much. And it's, He's a competitive guy. So, like, yeah, he blessed us, honestly. He really did.
00:26:14
Speaker 3: He did.
00:26:15
Speaker 4: He just had all these stupid turnovers. I mean, he even had picks. He threw a pick, and they called it back on PI.
00:26:18
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:26:20
Speaker 4: And I just kept thinking, I don't care because I know he was going to give us another one. He just– he can't help it because he's trying to win this game, and it's always going to be third and ten. They couldn't run the ball either. It's just– everything happened with Broncos I thought was going to happen other than Bo Nix. He was just– I can't get over how bad he was. 123 passing yards, four carries for 10 yards. I mean, what is the point, Bo Nix? You're surrounded by a great offensive line, a ton of weapons against a horrible defense, and he did nothing.
00:26:47
Speaker 3: So that's what people can tell. Like, we won this game.
00:26:49
Speaker 4: I always so hate watching the second half of this game where it's like, I can't believe me and Chad are going to go two and three again where they should be winning this game by 20. But it's just Denver, I got to readjust. Denver is definitely not getting better, which I thought they would be at this time.
00:27:03
Speaker 3: They're just getting worse. It feels like more inconsistent.
00:27:07
Speaker 1: When Sean Payton, honest to God, when Sean Payton didn't go for the touchdown on that fourth and one, I was going to start rooting for the chargers just to spite Sean Payton. Like I was just so like, what are we doing here? Like, this is just idiotic. The thing I'll say about Herbert, we've seen this a million times with quarterbacks. At some point you kind of get bad habits and you get broken.
00:27:33
Speaker 2: Right.
00:27:34
Speaker 1: And if it happens again and again and again, He's had so much bad luck with injuries to his offensive line that have forced him to make decisions about how he's going to win a game that at some.
00:27:46
Speaker 2: Point it just becomes ingrained. It's hard to break out of that stuff.
00:27:48
Speaker 1: So it'll be curious for me when they finally get a healthy offensive line, can he actually do.
00:27:53
Speaker 2: Anything with it? Houston, this one, we didn't care about the number. It was seven.
00:27:59
Speaker 1: It was seven and a half in the contest. They were on the road at Tennessee. We kind of didn't hesitate.
00:28:07
Speaker 2: On this one.
00:28:09
Speaker 1: Texans scored on a Titans fumble. Texans were settling for field goals in the first half.
00:28:13
Speaker 2: They had four.
00:28:14
Speaker 1: Their drives on anemic offense. Ten plays, 49 yards. Six plays, 18 yards. Six plays, 34 yards. Six plays, 34 yards. The good news, they were playing against Cam Ward.
00:28:27
Speaker 2: Talk about broken. Dude, this is rough. Just rough.
00:28:34
Speaker 4: Yeah, always nice though when you basically get a free one from just the NFL season.
00:28:39
Speaker 3: We like, we, we joke, this was just an easy game.
00:28:42
Speaker 4: We try not to ever think we've seen this movie a thousand times and played out just as you thought. It's just, Texas are a good team. They had a really tough matchups. They had a couple of games that they could have won very end. Didn't break their way. So their own force to have two and two. So if they were two and two numbers, probably 10 and a half. And me and Chad don't bet this one. Like it's just simple as that. We knew we're getting three, maybe four points of value here. We didn't know we were getting 23 points of value, but we did though. Like I said, I would not be shocked that that was going to be a 30, 30 to three type of game.
00:29:16
Speaker 3: And it got right there. Cause it's just the Miko is such a good coach. And we joke.
00:29:20
Speaker 4: Once we heard, we both heard he had taken over play calling dude, which I also said I thought was going to happen.
00:29:26
Speaker 3: You saw it on the field. The defense just played at.
00:29:29
Speaker 4: A different level because they loved their coach and they knew they embarrassed them. That defense was, We talked about championship defense that we thought they were going to be coming into the season, and they just haven't been that level.
00:29:40
Speaker 3: In this game. They really were like Cam Ward.
00:29:43
Speaker 4: He's like you said, he's just so bad, so many bad habits. And in this game, they, they exposed all of them again. It's just, that's what good defenses do, especially against quarterbacks floundering like him. So yeah, CJ, you know, 34 pass attempts completed for 260 yards. So, It wasn't like he had to ask to do much. They had, you know, I think they're averaging four yards per carry offensively. So like you said, they were settling for field goals in the first half. If they scored touchdowns, it never would even have been even in the range of whatever it was, 12 to three, like a kind of a sweat. But yeah, that's another game. I'm just glad we didn't wake up this morning and talk ourselves out of it. We basically both disagreed to keep it, keep it moving, just put it in.
00:30:22
Speaker 3: So yeah. Yeah.
00:30:23
Speaker 4: I wish I'd obviously been more into it. It's just, man, you look at that number and it comes down to like seven. Some books are showing six and a half. It's just like, like I talked to some pros who did better. And it's just like, what are you guys betting here? So, uh, yeah, I wish, wish I obviously invested more in that Texas number.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: The game changing drive on that, that sort of made us finally feel comfortable after not looking good offensively in the first half, they opened the second half that went 17 plays, 74 yards and eight and a half minutes. It was never the same from there. Simon, um, Let's talk about, quickly, Las.
00:31:01
Speaker 2: Vegas, New England. We took it out.
00:31:04
Speaker 1: I think we felt like, I think I said this morning, we're trying to catch a falling knife here. Are we oversubscribed to a Raiders team that has been very competitive and has had Kirk in the perfect scheme, looking like he was 10 years younger, firing dimes into triple coverage? Or is Drake May and the Patriots on the ascent after a big win against Buffalo? The Raiders were so uncompetitive, it's hard to know if the Patriots are really on the ascent off of this game. Drake May was great. I think he counted for five touchdowns today. But I'm really glad we took it out and we came to our senses and we didn't get suckered into this sort of.
00:31:50
Speaker 2: Very public road underdog.
00:31:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, just brutal.
00:31:56
Speaker 4: Obviously, if you're someone that believed in the Raiders, this was like everything went wrong type of game. Their defense totally fell apart. Drake May looked like he did last year, just played an all-pro level. Like you said, five touchdowns, passed for 375 yards, just about. Just incredible game by the Patriots. I mean, we said they're down four cornerbacks. Their backups who played in the game played pretty well. Like early on in the game, there was huge openings and Brock Bowers was torching them, and they really settled in midway through the second quarter, it felt like, in the rest of the game. We said they were kind of due for a bad Kirk Cousins game, and he didn't play that poorly. He just couldn't get off the field on third downs. On the flip side, every time the Patriots.
00:32:40
Speaker 3: Touched the ball, it felt like they drove the field and scored a touchdown.
00:32:44
Speaker 4: People always ask, if you guys have it on your radar that it's a bad spot and you're taking it out, why don't you ever pick the other side? I guess it's a fair point. It's just a weird feeling because I've already bet it. Like I've already bought Vegas. Now we're putting Patriots in the contest, but that is a good point. Like I've had people bring that up, but we do that a lot where we take out these lines and we, cause we know they're no longer good.
00:33:04
Speaker 3: It's like, why don't we play the other side?
00:33:06
Speaker 4: But yeah, that was one of the bigger shellacans of the day, 45 to 17. So Vegas, like I said, this type of game, if they went in there and won this game, This is a team that we would be talking about fighting for their division come December. Now they're right back to, eh, maybe they'll be the seventh seed, most likely miss the playoffs. This really drops the Raiders' model view. I'm not going to have them anywhere near highly as great as they did coming into this game, I'll tell you that much. It's just a type of game that doesn't make or break your season, but it's a tone setter for a team's legit, really tough spot against a good team in the Patriots.
00:33:45
Speaker 3: Patriots lived up to that and much more here. They really, really impressed here with the big win.
00:33:50
Speaker 1: Quickly for Sunday night football, Baltimore and Atlanta, we know that Lamar Jackson isn't playing. You would bet into this game quite a bit. It's at three and a half, maybe three at some places now, but we didn't put it in the contest just because neither of us felt good about saying better to three and a half when it had been a much, much lower numbers.
00:34:17
Speaker 2: I'm still on Atlanta here. Yeah.
00:34:21
Speaker 4: Like I'm on Atlanta, but I just, you can't, you can't bet them a minus three and a half, even if they win a cover tonight, you're chasing a dead number and a bad number.
00:34:31
Speaker 3: It's just.
00:34:33
Speaker 4: To my, in my opinion, even though on Atlanta, I'm invested in them. I told you everything was below three. So plus three and a half, if I never had bet this game, I'll either take a position on the Ravens or do what I always say, which is if you miss the best of the number, you hope the Ravens get the ball to start off, drive the field, get a touchdown or a field goal. Now you have a much better number in Atlanta. So if you just want a way to get Atlanta, I don't hate them, but I just would only do it under three. I feel like Stu Ponley is not that bad. This should be a close game. And this could be a peak Atlanta. I mean, if Atlanta wins this, then it'll definitely be a peak. But Atlanta's coming off back to back. steam rolling of teams like putting up over 40 points in prime time type of games i mean it's just hard not to want to like chad said he wants to bet him he bet him i do too but i just don't want to give it out at a bad number so that's my problem here like atlanta could win big again tonight we know this is a really good match of them especially offensively though i just don't know what the rims could do to stop this falcons offense but i just hate telling people to bet a bad number which that's what this is right now it's a bad number for taking the falcons.
00:35:39
Speaker 1: Let's do a quick Monday night. Cause a lot of people are thinking about that game. The Rams are three and a half point favorites over the bills in Los Angeles. The numbers moved to full point, moved over a key number of three. It was a two and a half last week when we were thinking about Josh Allen on the bills, we were tempted at three and a half this morning, but we're a little bit wary because the number has moved the way it has with so little resistance. It's not just the public coming in on the Rams. There's, you know, we know there's wise guy money that is coming on this side too. So we're a little bit wary of taking the bills here.
00:36:18
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:36:18
Speaker 4: And the, the public's actually hammering the bills. This is all, all pros all over the Rams. And I told you, I've been trying to find out if all the rumors are true, if Josh Allen's actually heard.
00:36:30
Speaker 3: And is that why this number is moving? It's, it's gotta be something.
00:36:34
Speaker 4: Cause I just, I don't get it where, you know, There is no Miles Garrett in this game. And, yes, Puka and Devontae Adams, they should do well against this secondary that's got lit up last week by Drake May without his number one.
00:36:49
Speaker 3: Like, I get that whole opinion.
00:36:52
Speaker 4: You know, you could say what you want about this Bills team, their secondary, but they do have guys out in the front that have gone after the quarterbacks. And we've seen Stafford, early in the year, he has struggled with pressure. Like, that Eagles game took a miracle 14-point comeback. I mean, it was just– They haven't been consistent either, the Stafford team. So it's really hard for me. It's like I want to be with the public on the Bills. But especially after today, we both know that's most likely a losing bet.
00:37:19
Speaker 3: The public has just got absolutely killed this week.
00:37:21
Speaker 4: So I already bet the Bills in teasers. So, like, I have them in 9.5 and 8.5. So maybe I'll keep waiting this one out and see if this number goes up to 4, if the pros keep hitting it. Like, I just– Either way, I feel like I don't have to rush if I want to bet the bills. On the flip side, if you want the Rams and you can still get minus three, I'd take that position at this point because I just know the professionals are going to keep hitting the Rams. They know something, and I'm clearly missing it. I wish I was more dug in on that one because it's such a fun game. It's such a great matchup. I wish I was more opinionated on it, but I'm missing something here because I can't believe Josh Allen's three-and-a-half-point favorite.
00:38:02
Speaker 3: It's just.
00:38:03
Speaker 4: It feels like we're missing an easy gift here where it's like, okay, he always has the ball at the end of the game and he's losing by three. He's never getting blown out by more than that. It takes a miracle for him to lose by more than that. So, yeah, it's very telling the book's taking this position here with this ramp side.
00:38:19
Speaker 1: Hero of the week, Simon. For me, there's no doubt. Jordan Love, 25 of 31, 367 yards.
00:38:25
Speaker 2: Two touchdowns, a passer rating of 137.
00:38:33
Speaker 1: Point five, if ever a team needed this game against this team in this spot, it was the Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears. For me, as a Bears fan, in the week that Mike Dick had died, RIP, let's pour it out for the guy that I think is probably the second most influential person in the history of the Bears franchise after George Hallis.
00:39:01
Speaker 2: This was a classic. emotional hedge.
00:39:05
Speaker 1: As a secondary hero, Simon, it is to you, my BFF, for bringing this up because I was not going to do it. I played the Packers money line. I was not going to bring this up this morning. Thank God you did because it knocked out the bet that would have put us at two and three with the Las Vegas Raiders.
00:39:25
Speaker 4: I'll go with my air of the week, D'Amico Ryan's just everything I said, Houston's defense was going to do.
00:39:30
Speaker 3: They, they really showed up and did it. And then some, they were really impressive today and that's really needed it. That team desperately needed. And it's just impressive.
00:39:40
Speaker 4: When we see Houston doing what they did in this game, it's only give up three points and just dominate from start to finish.
00:39:47
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:39:48
Speaker 4: Got, got to give him props. It's just, Such a pressure spot. They could have easily folded up here and still could have won, but not covered for us.
00:39:57
Speaker 3: But no, no, no brainer. Blew him out.
00:40:00
Speaker 4: One of our easy bets of the week. So yeah, Demico Ryan's here.
00:40:03
Speaker 3: Of the week.
00:40:04
Speaker 1: I feel like we're going to be aligned on this one. Shame, shame, shame on you, Dan Quinn. not just for the OT, not deciding to kick it, not the incompetence at the end of the overtime, but for the entire second half of the fourth quarter, giving up two touchdowns to Jameis Winston in the final seven and a half minutes when you're up 14 points is absolutely shameful. They never should have been in the position of having to make decisions in overtime the way they were.
00:40:52
Speaker 2: You stop them once. You stop them on one drive, and this game is over. Shame, shame, shame. Dan Quinn.
00:41:02
Speaker 3: I've got to go with Shuck. I can't get over how bad it was in that game watching.
00:41:14
Speaker 4: Shame on you, Shuck. 96 passing yards in a full game. Not a single rushing attempt, which also blew my mind. You're not this 30-year vet, man. You're 26, 27 years old.
00:41:26
Speaker 3: Use your legs. It's what you've been so good with early in the year.
00:41:29
Speaker 4: Is getting out of the pocket when there's no one open downfield instead of forcing terrible throws. I mean, that game was so brutal. Yeah, two picks, 96 yards pass, and zero rushing attempts. Just a total nothing from Shuck in a game that, they were begging for the Vikings. They were literally going stack box. I think they are giving up three yards per, three yards per carry in this game against the Saints team. They just literally were like beat a shuck and he could not do it.
00:41:59
Speaker 3: So shame on you.
00:42:01
Speaker 4: Sorry, Saints, but it looks like you're going to be in the market for quarterback where he's just every, every defense that has some semblance of a secondary, he's done nothing this year.
00:42:10
Speaker 3: And I got it against bad team. He lights them up.
00:42:12
Speaker 4: But I was dying for that second half, second half magic where, We're going to halftime up 7-6, Chad, at home.
00:42:20
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:42:20
Speaker 4: And we don't cover the number. We lose this bet. It's just– it's all on you, Shuck.
00:42:24
Speaker 3: It really is.
00:42:26
Speaker 1: All right.
00:42:27
Speaker 2: Some early leanings.
00:42:29
Speaker 1: Two games– well, a few games stood out to me. Two games immediately stood out to me. Carolina Panthers on the road. One-and-a-half point underdogs. Yeah. immediately saw that. They're playing the Eagles. We assume Saquon might be back. Devontae Smith might be back. But how am I not betting on Bryce Young as a road underdog? Because that's the spot that we always like to bet on Bryce Young against a team that is struggling and might have some real offensive line issues, even if the Panthers' defense isn't very good.
00:43:11
Speaker 3: I don't know, but it's definitely another sucker bet.
00:43:13
Speaker 4: You know it is, but I don't hate it because I think if you grab it now, they could flip to being a favorite.
00:43:19
Speaker 2: That's kind of why I did it.
00:43:20
Speaker 3: If you're talking strictly.
00:43:21
Speaker 4: Value, yes, bet it, but this is going to be another 80% of the bets, 80% of the money is going to be on the Panthers.
00:43:27
Speaker 3: Same today with the Jags. There's no difference.
00:43:30
Speaker 4: Even if you won on the Eagles today, you still felt like you lost because it was just such an embarrassing loss. I have no idea what the early money is doing right now, but just I'm guessing, I think pros and the public would join chat and they will bet Carolina. So I don't hate it. Honestly, maybe I'll bet if it's plus 110 right now, their money line or something. But if you just want to grab the plus one and a half, I don't hate that either on Carolina.
00:43:50
Speaker 1: Colts minus six and a half hosting the Titans. I really grabbed it because I.
00:43:56
Speaker 2: Think it's going to move.
00:43:56
Speaker 3: Let's go back to the well.
00:43:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to move to seven. One place already moved it to seven. It's at minus 115 in a lot of places. I just wanted to get it because I feel like when we do more research, we're going to be like, Yeah, what are we doing here?
00:44:11
Speaker 2: So give me the Colts touchdown to cover.
00:44:17
Speaker 3: Totally fair.
00:44:19
Speaker 1: The last one, Cleveland's a four-and-a-half point home underdog against the Ravens.
00:44:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's already at three-and-a-half. So, yeah, if you can get four-and-a-half.
00:44:29
Speaker 2: Oh, it is.
00:44:29
Speaker 4: Yeah, grab it. One thing, we don't know who the quarterback is for the Ravens. We expect Lamar will be back.
00:44:37
Speaker 3: If he is.
00:44:39
Speaker 4: Maybe this does go up to five and a half, six and a half, who knows? So I wouldn't go too crazy on Cleveland right now, but this feels a little bit like a Lamar line. The fact that they're already hanging plus four and a half, plus three and a half. So I don't mind that stuff. I bet I made it before it came.
00:44:54
Speaker 3: On the air.
00:44:55
Speaker 2: What am I missing?
00:44:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, it jumped out to me right away. Just based off just lines that look funky. Tampa's plus three at home. Against Pittsburgh.
00:45:10
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:45:11
Speaker 4: I thought that was interesting just because Pittsburgh was so dominant. I felt like today, but that'd be a bigger, even though Tampa, you know, covered one and covered. And I'm sure the public got more sediment on them. I just, I'm shocked. You can get plus three, plus three and a half on that opening number. Bears plus one and a.
00:45:27
Speaker 3: Half at Atlanta. I know.
00:45:32
Speaker 4: I mean, usually I, usually I take a position on where I think the line is going to go. And I obviously think Atlanta is going to win tonight. So, I know I'm supposed to take a position on them, but that just jumps out to me right away. That's a fishy line. Like, that's them saying Caleb's going to be back.
00:45:46
Speaker 2: Yep.
00:45:47
Speaker 3: I'll grab it.
00:45:48
Speaker 4: Just in case Soup Huntley rolls Atlanta tonight and maybe this line flips when it's Caleb Williams. So, it's just– I don't know if I'll have my position, like, heavy next week on the Bears, but that line jumped out right away just because they played so bad.
00:46:03
Speaker 3: I just– Ben Johnson's such a good coach. I expect them to bounce back.
00:46:06
Speaker 2: Yep.
00:46:07
Speaker 4: The type of guy I believe in, especially coaching-wise, it was kind of the same thing I did with Detroit today with Dan Campbell. It's like you get embarrassed like that in those type of games, you bounce back. Now Detroit was way better than I could have ever perceived. It's kind of the same feeling here with the Bears. It's just you expect a big bounce back. I can't believe the Bucs hung them at that number because I thought I opened at plus three. So very telling the Bucs to hang the plus one. So once again, don't need to grab it right now if you don't want to. Just one that jumped out to me in. Another game that is very interesting, the way the books hung it, they're letting the public decide, is Sunday night, Green Bay versus Dallas. Green Bay is minus one and a half against Dallas. Right away, it's like, don't we just hammer Dallas? Everyone in the world was all over them on Thursday night.
00:46:55
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed.
00:46:58
Speaker 4: And that's the type of game where we bet it and we know it's a true, we're flipping a coin because it's going to come down to the defense here. I don't know if Green Bay should be favored over them just because they kind of had this fluke blowout win here. It feels like a total overreaction.
00:47:13
Speaker 3: By the books. That's another one where I don't need to rush to bet the Cowboys.
00:47:17
Speaker 4: I honestly think I can get plus two and a half. I can be patient here and try to get the best number, but just was interested. A couple books opened them at plus one. Already moved Dallas to plus one and a half. I know we got to get out of here because this game is on the start, but one more. I know we won't bet them, but The Saints, they're plus one and a half at the Giants. So that's another one that's just– I like the books are just letting it– letting the people decide. They can't decide that one either because Shuck looks so bad. You should be betting the Saints here, right? Like we've seen that data of teams that are favorite after playing an overtime game. It's never an ideal spot, right? It's like whatever their– how many extra snaps their defense play. And that was a very physical game against– Washington. So I know we can't do it, but we're supposed to. So that's going to be a fun conversation this coming week about what we're going to do that same summer. Cause I don't want to touch it right now, but it's like screaming at me, grab this now. So another funny, fun number this week.
00:48:18
Speaker 2: All right, folks, that's our show.
00:48:21
Speaker 1: Go brewers says our Milwaukee native producer, Matt Mitchell. We will be back on Tuesday with our NFL week, six betting preview. This has been sharper square. sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, lose five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Tuesday, love you.
00:48:50
Speaker 3: Stomping your feet, clapping your hands.
00:48:53
Speaker 4: You're part of the team sitting in the stands. Come see what's brewing.
00:49:00
Speaker 3: The Milwaukee Brewers.
