Dynasty Baseball Pickups: Ep 145 - MLB Draft Proposal And Week 12 Pickups

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Hello, and welcome to episode one of the Dynasty Baseball
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Pickups podcast. Today is June twenty First, I'm Kyle Santek
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and I'm joined as always by Taylor Corso. Today is
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Father's Day, so I wanted to give a shout out
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to all the dads out there, but especially to my dad.
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I know I wouldn't be where I am today without him,
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so thank you for everything that you've taught me, both
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when it comes to ball and life in general. Taylor,
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how are you doing today and do you want to
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give a little shout out to your dad as well?
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Yeah, I definitely want to give a shout out to
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my dad as well, but I think you said it
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really well, so I'll just kind of steal what you said.
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But wouldn't be the baseball fan I am today without
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my dad. He was one of the biggest supporters of
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just the idea of even starting this podcast and has
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made me into it the person I am today. So
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Happy Father's Day, Dad. I don't know if you're listening
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to this, but I hope it's a good one for you,
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and happy Father's Data to all the listeners out there.
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I know there's a lot of ads in our listener base.
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Hopefully they're having a great day to day. But other
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than that, I'm doing good. Went to the Sanaa County
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Fair yesterday. I had a blast there. I went to
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a concert afterwards. But I'm feeling it today. So it
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might not be my most energetic performance on the podcast today,
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but I'll try to I'll try to power through.
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That's all right. Something tells me that once we get
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into the recommendations, the energy is going to rise a
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little bit. I think we've got some good ones today,
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but we got a lot to talk about before we
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get to those, and before we even get into our
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regular news and notes. There was some interesting news that
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came up over the past week as the MLB has
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proposed some major changes to the format of the amateur draft, which,
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to say the least, the MLB Players Association was not
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happy with these proposals. I think there are two major
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pieces to this proposal that we kind of need to
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talk about here, Taylor, So we're gonna split it up
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into a couple different pieces here. One piece is the
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idea of removing high school players from the draft and
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then allowing college players to be draft eligible as early
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as their sophomore year. Now, this would obviously be a
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major shakeup to the way that things are currently done.
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So before we move on to that other major change
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I'm alluding to, I wanted to get your thoughts on this.
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What do you think about the idea of removing high
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school players from the MLB draft?
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Yeah, I hate it. I don't think it's a great idea. See,
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obviously I see why the owners want it, right, they
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can eliminate some of the minor league. They can push
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some of the development costs onto the colleges rather than
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the organizations themselves. You have other leagues that have college
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requirements that you don't see high schoolers get drafted from
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directly from high school into those other professional sports leagues.
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But it's a different it's a different setup, it's a
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different level of development, and a lot of those leagues
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you start playing the year you're drafted, right, That's not
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the case for baseball. There's a lot more development that
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has to take It's a much slower timeline. So I
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think this is the owners had to know this was
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not gonna fly with the players Association. So I think
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there's zero chance of this actually happening because I think
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it takes away from the realistic outcome here, which is
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the international draft. It was part of the last CBA negotiations.
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It really should happen because of the shady elements in
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the current system. But yeah, this is not the right
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way to go about it. And I think a lot
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of the CBA is going to be like the PR
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element to it, like the PR battle, And I think
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this was a losing gambit on the part of the
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owners for the PR battle because I don't think there's
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been anybody who's come out in favor of this. But
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have you seen anything in favor of this?
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I have not seen anything in favor of this. As
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you noted, it's very different in baseball from any other
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sport as far as development goes. And I think the
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big thing that you said almost right off the top
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was cost when it comes down to a lot of
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these proposals on Fortunately, almost everything that the MLB and
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the owners are going to propose is going to come
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down to cost and how it's going to save them money.
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So obviously, again the Players Association was not happy with
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its proposal. It'll be interesting to see how the negotiations
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continue going forward. But Taylor, you also got a little
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bit into the second piece that we're going to talk
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about here, and that is the idea to implement an
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international draft, which would then be restricted to players of
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at least eighteen years of age. Now, this one, I'm
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more along the lines of what you were saying. I
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think while it's even more complicated than removing high school
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players from the amateur draft, I do think that this
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is a more realistic ask. That being said, there is
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so much currently going on in the international market, and
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so much that we don't even know about that. While
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I think it's a good idea from what I've heard,
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there are also a lot of benefits to the current
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format for the international players and their families. So one
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thing that was proposed by somebody in our p Live
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staff chat, and I apologize I can't remember who brought
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this up, but I think it was a really good
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idea that we probably need to find a way to
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gradually move to an international draft rather than implementing it
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in full immediately. Now I have no idea how you
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would get that done. I do agree that an international
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draft is better than the format we currently have, but
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I don't think you can full stop this format and
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go right into an international draft. So what do you
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think about that, Taylor and the idea of maybe gradually
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moving into a draft of some sort for international players.
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I agree, And it's disappointing too, because this is something
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the players and the owners actually agreed on in the
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last CBA, but they didn't want to implement something without
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researching it first and without doing what you're saying, like
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the gradual implementation, and they just weren't able to come
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to an agreement on what that should look like and
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everything like that. And so I do think that there
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is is desire on both sides to get this done,
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But like you said, I think it does have to
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be a gradual thing. I think there's so much in
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place currently that needs to shift that is not necessarily
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going to be easy. And it's something that you know,
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I doubt we're going to see this round but with
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everything else on the table. But I do think it
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should be done, and it seems like something that is
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realistically something that both sides can get into as long
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as it makes sense for both sides.
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Yeah, I'm certainly with you that this seems a little
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more realistic, seems like something both sides are more in
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favor of but Taylor, because this is of course a
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fantasy podcast. The last question I wanted to ask you
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with regards to these proposals is how could these proposals
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potentially impact our first year player drafts? Because oftentimes the
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conversation going into our fypds is how to value relatively
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quote unquote safe college players against the often higher upside
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prep players. So how might this affect our fypds? Even
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if it is three, four, five, six years down the road,
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what would that then look like?
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Oh? Completely change it. The level of talent in those
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fips would be a lot less. You would be drafting
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guys a lot older, and I would anticipate you probably
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see a lot of shifts over to more of an
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open universe league. Those style leagues currently exist, but I
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think if you took away the pre college eligibility for
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these players, people would still want to be able to
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acquire those players at a young age. So I think
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you would see a lot more open universe leagues. But
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I just think in general, it would just change the
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development pathway. You have a lot less time guys would
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spend in the minors if you delayed the Major league
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amateur draft to that point. So, yeah, it'd just be
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a completely different game for dynasty than it is currently.
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Absolutely, and I wonder if it would start to look
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maybe more like I know in fantasy football, there's something
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called DEVI leagues, which is more it's short for developmental leagues,
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that sort of thing where you can draft college players,
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which I think is that in between what a true
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open universe would be and what kind of the traditional
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dynasty leagues we have in baseball now are.
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Like.
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So I wonder if something like this gets implemented, if
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we start to see more of those kind of devy
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leagues make their way into fantasy baseball as well.
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Yeah, yeah, that's a good point, all.
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Right, Taylor. Like I said, we've got a lot more
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discussion coming up here, so we're gonna move on. We've
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got lots of news and notes from around the baseball world.
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We've got yet another chapter in the complicated Seattle Mariners rotation.
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We've got some injuries, demotions, promotions, big league debuts, and
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of course another week of Dynasty pickups recommendations. But before
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we get to any of that, I want to remind
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everyone once again about all of the incredible offerings we
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have at PE Live and it's an ever growing list.
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So this week in particular, I got a number of
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new things to point out to you. We've got our
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p Live Rankings tool housing our Dynasty prospect and and universalists.
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As well as p Live Plus. There's the p Live
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Manager tool, which includes the league and roster analyzers. There's
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also Hobby Plus, which just got another update. There's PE
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Live playing time, there's daily sheets. There's the ability to
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sync your leagues directly into the site for the best
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insights on your teams. Our mock Draft simulator is up
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and running again with the MLB Draft right around the corner,
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and we recently added the Draft Planner tool as well,
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which helps you prepare for your upcoming drafts. Our Dynasty
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team has continued to roll out content every day of
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the week, including articles like three Up, Three Down from
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Tom Gates, Dynasty Diplomas from Lucas Morell, Expected Edge from
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PJ Benisilo P Live Plus, Deep Sea Diving from Charles Trimble,
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raj Meta's midweek Dynasty pickups articles, We've got David Goffman's
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lineup card articles, We've got Raycoon's various fab articles, and
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we've got my weekend edition of the Dynasty Pickups articles
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and in recent articles, we've got a bunch of new
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stuff that came out this past week. Specifically, we've got
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Trevor Hooth who gave us his weekly rundown on the DSL.
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We've got some more live looks articles out of Omaha
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from Jake, JB and Josh who were there for the
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College World Series, as well as live looks from Billy McMahon,
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who had a chance to catch a single a game
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between Ontario and Rancho Cucamonga. Matt Seese also shared his
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under the Hood article, the first of many to come
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as he dove into Braylan Dodi. On the podcast front,
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the College Baseball Now podcast recapped the first weekend of
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the College World Series and previewed the championship series this weekend.
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Andrew Parker interviewed Dodgers prospect Chase Harlan on the most
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recent episode of his podcast. To the show, and the
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Pro Side Pod, which I haven't done as good of
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a job hyping as I should be, goes live every
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Monday evening, so be sure to tune into that one
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as well. And on the p Live Dynasty Pod, Grey
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Hoo Camp was joined by Alex Jensen to discuss some
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early standouts in the DSL and Complex League. So as
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you can tell a ton of incredible work being done
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up and down p Lab right now. Whether you like
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to read articles or listen to podcasts to consume your content,
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whether you are into fantasy baseball, real life scouting, the
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amateur side of things, card collecting, you name it. We
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have something for every kind of baseball fan and it
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is all available at prospectslive dot com for as little
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as just seven dollars per month. If you enjoy our podcast,
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please give us a rate and review. We really appreciate
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your support, and please give us a follow as well.
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You can find me at Sunny Underscore one eight on
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X and Sonny one O eight on Blue Sky. You
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can find Taylor at Dynasty Pickups on both. You can
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also get a hold of us with all of your
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Dynasty Baseball questions at Dynasty Baseball Pickups at gmail dot com.
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Now let's get into some of those news and notes,
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and let's start with that weird ongoing saga that is
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the Seattle Mariners rotation. We have talked a few times
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about that crowded rotation in Seattle and it seems they've
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decided to take an interesting approach to the situation going forward,
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at least until the All Star break, as all six
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starters in that rotation have reportedly agreed to use a
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piggyback plan until the All Star break. This means that
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at some point between now and the All Star Break,
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every starter on that roster will be piggy backing off
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another starter at some point. From a real life standpoint,
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I think it makes sense and it will help them
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keep guys fresh and not over use their arms, but
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still stick to a relatively traditional five man rotation. From
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a fantasy perspective, I think this could be an absolute
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nightmare trying to navigate when your guys are starting and
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whether or not they are then piggybacking off of the
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starting pitcher on any given day. So, Taylor, as a
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fantasy player, how are you going to handle this? Where
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you have any Mariners starters rostered, I.
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Have quite a few. I think it's tough because, on
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the one hand, it's really not going to impact much
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because it's really I think one turn for each of
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these guys to be a payeeback prior to the All
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Star breaks. It's not it's not going to be super
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impactful in terms of having to deal with this all
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the time, but I do think there is gonna be difficulty,
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especially in weekly leagues and planning ahead. I don't know
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how much in advanced Seattle is gonna let us know
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the plans for piggybacking, but you'll probably want to have
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your starters a daily moves league in there to get
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those those stats, even if they're the pickybacking starter, because
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they might have chances for a win or just to
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give you some strikeouts and ratios as well. So I
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think that's where it'll become most difficult. But yeah, it's
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a little bit of a headache, but I think it's
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not going to impact us as much as we probably think.
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I will also say in leagues with the start limits,
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like the points league we are in, it's actually a
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little bit of a boost because you potentially can sneak
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in an extra start or something if you're up against
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your start limit for the week, but as a piggyback,
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so you won't get a full start, but you'll get
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some benefit to it. Yeah, that was the point I
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wanted to make, where in those leagues with a starts limit.
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You definitely want to be paying attention to whether or
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not your Mariners starter is the piggybacker, because if they are, you're,
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as you said, basically getting a free start without having
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to use one of your starts against that limit.
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So I think the main thing is just going to
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be staying on top of the situation. And maybe even
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if you have a Mariner's pitcher on your team, which
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literally everybody in that rotation is fantasy relevant, so they're
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all going to be rostered somewhere if you have one
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of them, maybe just keep them in your lineup if
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you don't want to go through the headache of trying
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to figure out when they are starting versus whin they're piggybacking.
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Yeah, that's a great call out for daily Moose leagues.
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Just keep them in there, all right, Taylor, Enough of
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trying to figure out what Seattle's doing. We're gonna move
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into some injuries now. We start on the hitting side
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of things, where Corey Seeger is dealing with a concussion.
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We've got on Hill Martinez with a foot fracture, Randy
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or Rosarina is dealing with some hamstring inflammation. Glaber Torres
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has an oblique strain, chased the latter with a rib fracture.
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Mike Trout and Jordan Lawler are dealing with hamstrang injuries.
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Adley Rutchman has a concussion, and Liam Hicks just this
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morning went on the Ile with a back injury. So
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long list of guys here, Taylor, how many of these
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are burning you in fantasy right now? Because it seems
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every single week. I know for myself, I've got a
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handful of guys thankfully if you coming off the aile,
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But it always seems like there are more going on
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than coming off.
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Yeah, it's been brutal. It's knocked me out of eggs
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and other leagues. It's just been a nightmare. But but
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it is what it is. I think a lot of
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people are going through it right now with just these
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overflowing eyeles there. I did want to touch on a
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couple things from this list, and like downstream of fact,
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Ali Reshman concussion. That gives another opportunity to Cobe Mayo.
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He had been pretty much moved to a bench role.
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I think at this point like I'm pretty much out
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on Mayo, but curious to get your thoughts on him,
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and then I do wonder if Liam Hicks's injury opens
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up the way for Augustin Ramirez to return to the Biggs.
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I think that would be an interesting development. I know
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we talked about him, I believe it was last week
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as part of a listener email. But I still have
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some hope for him long term, and I think this
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could be his opportunity to make his way back to
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the Bigs.
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Soll I'll touch on Mayo first and then get back
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to Augustin. I'm not all the way out on Mayo.
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I still think that he could earn a shot at
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some point, but as you noted, when they've got both
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Adle and Samuel Bisaio healthy there, there's just not a
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ton of playing time for Mayo right now, so it's
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hard for me to be real interested in him. From
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a fantasy perspective, I'm not all the way out. He
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seems like the kind of guy that would really benefit
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from a change of scenery and could take off depending
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on where he moves if he gets moved. Switching over
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to Augustin Ramirez and that situation in Miami, I'm a
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little bit less optimistic as I was last week, but
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specifically with this situation because Hicks has been out for
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a couple of days before they put him on the IL,
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so it seems like it's a relatively minor situation. I
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haven't heard of any corresponding moves with him going to
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the IL. I don't know if Augustin is even getting
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called up, but I do wonder if, especially because they
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still have two other catchers on the roster, if they
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would then even be concerned about calling up Augustin, or
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if they're just gonna bring somebody else up to hold
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a roster spot for the next week or so until
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Hicks comes back.
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Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point. All right.
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We'll move into some picture injuries, Taylor. We're gonna start
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with the starters first, and then there are a couple
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relief injuries we'll get into as well. But we've got
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Christian Scott dealing with a hip issue, Grayson Rodriguez back injury,
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Max Schurzer is back on the IL with some back spasms.
350
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We've got Ryan Nelson dealing with an elbow strain, Mike
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00:18:10.839 --> 00:18:14.240
Soroka a gluten strain, and Jack Lighter just went on
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00:18:14.279 --> 00:18:17.920
the IL this morning with an ankle injury. Now Nelson
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and Soroka have opened up a couple of opportunities in
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that Arizona rotation that we will touch on later on
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in this episode. I don't know that Scherzer, Grayson or
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even Christian Scott have been great contributors for Fantasy at
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this point, and Jack Lighter just hasn't looked right for
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a little while now. But is there anybody on this
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00:18:39.400 --> 00:18:44.000
list that is more troubling to you than the others
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or other than the opportunities in Arizona? Is there an
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opportunity that you see opening here with any of these injuries?
362
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Not necessarily an opportunity front I did have a question
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for you, though, like why should I hang on to
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Ryan Nelson? I, frankly, I don't know why you've been
365
00:19:00.599 --> 00:19:03.559
holding on up until now, don't I guess would be
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my response, all right, because I've been staring at him
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00:19:05.839 --> 00:19:07.599
at a league and he's rostered at all of our leagues,
368
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and I'm like why, I just I've been a fan
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of his in the past. I just don't ever see
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it coming together, and now elbow strain, like he's probably
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gonna be out a while. I think I'm just done
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with Ryan Nelson. I think I'm gonna cut him off
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my roster because I just don't have the room on
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my asl. It's already overflowing. Yeah, I was looking at it,
375
00:19:24.279 --> 00:19:25.960
and I'm just like, why would I hang on to him?
376
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What signals to me that he's gonna be a valuable
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00:19:29.240 --> 00:19:31.759
fantasy starter in the future. And I'm not sure that
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00:19:31.839 --> 00:19:34.880
there's anything there. The Vilo's good, but outside of that,
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just the performance hasn't been there, and I just I
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00:19:37.000 --> 00:19:40.799
don't trust it. Yeah, I think his best avenue two
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00:19:40.920 --> 00:19:43.519
fantasy relevance might be a move to the bullpen, where
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there's potentially some opportunity in the late innings in Arizona.
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But with this elbow strain, as you noted, I don't
384
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see anything like that happening anytime soon either. Yeah.
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00:19:53.200 --> 00:19:57.279
All right, speaking of relievers, a couple quick relief injuries here,
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00:19:57.400 --> 00:20:01.720
Daniel Palencia elbow inflammation, Brad Keller forum tendonitis. Couple of
387
00:20:02.799 --> 00:20:06.960
notable pictures. As far as fantasy relevance goes here, do
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00:20:07.000 --> 00:20:09.720
you see any opportunities opening up in the back end
389
00:20:09.880 --> 00:20:14.000
of these bullpens, specifically in Chicago because Palencia has been
390
00:20:14.039 --> 00:20:16.759
operating as their closer, it seems like they're gonna be
391
00:20:16.799 --> 00:20:19.559
going with a bit of a committee with maybe Jacob
392
00:20:19.640 --> 00:20:22.240
Webb being one of the leading candidates, but he's already
393
00:20:22.279 --> 00:20:24.559
blown a save. As of late, he hasn't been looking
394
00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:27.799
very good. So is there anything that we can act
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00:20:27.880 --> 00:20:31.000
on from the guys that might be moving into more
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00:20:31.039 --> 00:20:34.920
meaningful roles in either Chicago or Philadelphia.
397
00:20:36.079 --> 00:20:38.880
No, I think Chicago. On the fact that Palencia was
398
00:20:39.000 --> 00:20:43.680
like the the undisputed closer there when he's been healthy
399
00:20:44.119 --> 00:20:45.880
and has only three saves on the year kind of
400
00:20:45.880 --> 00:20:48.480
tells you the situation there in Chicago. It's just there
401
00:20:48.480 --> 00:20:50.960
hasn't been a lot of saves to go round, and
402
00:20:51.359 --> 00:20:54.000
I just don't think either of the options there and
403
00:20:54.559 --> 00:20:58.119
Jacob Webb or Caleb Theobar is all that exciting. So yeah,
404
00:20:58.160 --> 00:21:00.599
I'm kind of staying away from that situation. And then
405
00:21:01.400 --> 00:21:04.319
as far as with Teller, he's a good setup guy,
406
00:21:04.400 --> 00:21:09.279
but he was temporary closer while Duran was out Duran's back,
407
00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:12.359
so I don't know that he's really a guy who
408
00:21:13.119 --> 00:21:15.599
you know, unless you're in a deeper kind of safs
409
00:21:15.640 --> 00:21:17.720
hole league where he's super valuable. I don't know that
410
00:21:17.759 --> 00:21:19.319
he's a guy you necessarily need to hang on to
411
00:21:19.400 --> 00:21:23.119
because I feel like he's pretty replaceable from a setup
412
00:21:23.119 --> 00:21:25.519
guy standpoint. Yeah, I think I'm with you.
413
00:21:25.640 --> 00:21:28.839
He had a really good year last year, hasn't quite
414
00:21:28.920 --> 00:21:31.519
looked the same this year, but in those save holds leagues,
415
00:21:31.920 --> 00:21:35.400
has still been fairly valuable. I do agree, though, that
416
00:21:35.440 --> 00:21:38.559
you can probably move on from him if you aren't able,
417
00:21:38.720 --> 00:21:40.839
if you don't have room to stash him on your
418
00:21:40.880 --> 00:21:45.440
aisl as we again talk about these repeated plethora of
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00:21:45.480 --> 00:21:48.160
injuries week after week, he's probably a guy you can
420
00:21:48.200 --> 00:21:50.400
move on from. Whereas Palencia you need to be holding
421
00:21:50.440 --> 00:21:53.000
onto because as you said, he is the closer in
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00:21:53.119 --> 00:21:58.839
Chicago when healthy. He just hasn't been healthy much this year. Yeah, exactly,
423
00:21:59.480 --> 00:22:02.839
all right, if you quick injury updates here. Quinn Priester's
424
00:22:02.880 --> 00:22:05.920
season is done as he is set to undergo thoracic
425
00:22:05.960 --> 00:22:10.079
outlet decompression surgery, so even more than just the season
426
00:22:10.119 --> 00:22:13.079
potentially at risk for priest there, it'll be interesting to
427
00:22:13.200 --> 00:22:17.839
hear how things progress after that surgery. And Adolas Garcia
428
00:22:17.960 --> 00:22:20.519
season is also over as he is set to undergo
429
00:22:20.599 --> 00:22:25.319
surgery to repair his torn lat Mick Abel unfortunately, was
430
00:22:25.359 --> 00:22:30.039
set to rejoin the Twins shortly, but recently felt elbow
431
00:22:30.119 --> 00:22:33.400
soreness and will now undergo an MRI on Monday, So
432
00:22:33.519 --> 00:22:36.440
Mickabel will not be returning as was scheduled in the
433
00:22:36.480 --> 00:22:40.559
coming days here that obviously, Taylor is the big one here.
434
00:22:40.640 --> 00:22:44.200
I don't think we were really expecting a lot from
435
00:22:44.319 --> 00:22:47.799
Priester or Garcia following their injury diagnoses, but the fact
436
00:22:47.799 --> 00:22:51.160
that we were expecting mickable to come back and now
437
00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:53.680
we'll be waiting at least for a few more days
438
00:22:53.720 --> 00:22:57.240
for even an update is pretty concerning. So what do
439
00:22:57.279 --> 00:22:59.839
you think the odds are that we even see mickabel
440
00:23:00.039 --> 00:23:02.839
I'm back this year, Now that we've got elbow soreness
441
00:23:02.920 --> 00:23:05.119
and an MRI on the horizon.
442
00:23:06.880 --> 00:23:09.680
Yeah, it's not looking good. And I was really depending
443
00:23:09.720 --> 00:23:11.839
on him coming back. He was a guy who I
444
00:23:11.960 --> 00:23:14.680
was waiting on in a lot of leagues to give
445
00:23:14.680 --> 00:23:16.519
me a boost and finally have a guy returning from
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00:23:16.559 --> 00:23:19.039
the IL, and clearly that's not going to happen. So yeah,
447
00:23:19.039 --> 00:23:21.680
I'm pretty bummed about this news. And I actually hadn't
448
00:23:21.680 --> 00:23:24.440
seen it because I was busy yesterday and hadn't really
449
00:23:24.759 --> 00:23:26.519
got up on the news. So I'm hearing about it
450
00:23:26.519 --> 00:23:28.640
in real time right now, and I'm pretty depressed.
451
00:23:29.799 --> 00:23:32.640
Well, I apologize for bringing your mood down so much.
452
00:23:32.680 --> 00:23:35.480
We've got a few more injuries to get through before
453
00:23:35.519 --> 00:23:37.440
we can lift our mood back up, so let's try
454
00:23:37.480 --> 00:23:40.920
to get through these as quick as possible. One potential
455
00:23:41.119 --> 00:23:45.119
major league injury here. Bobby Witt Junior left Thursday's game
456
00:23:45.279 --> 00:23:48.480
early with a knee injury after kind of an awkward
457
00:23:48.559 --> 00:23:50.559
play on the infield where his knee looked like it
458
00:23:50.839 --> 00:23:53.799
stuck into the ground and twisted weird. He hasn't been
459
00:23:53.799 --> 00:23:56.880
placed on the IL, but is out of the lineup
460
00:23:56.880 --> 00:24:01.559
again today. Hasn't played since that injury on Thursday Day. Hopefully,
461
00:24:01.920 --> 00:24:03.960
the fact that he hasn't been placed on the IL
462
00:24:04.519 --> 00:24:06.920
is a good sign. But as I noted earlier, with
463
00:24:06.960 --> 00:24:08.960
a guy like Liam Hicks, sometimes it takes a few
464
00:24:09.039 --> 00:24:11.480
days before teams put these guys on the IL. So
465
00:24:11.720 --> 00:24:14.680
if Bobby Witt Junior does hit the injured list, Taylor,
466
00:24:15.640 --> 00:24:18.799
do you attempt to make a trade to replace him
467
00:24:18.960 --> 00:24:22.119
or do you just bide your time and try to
468
00:24:22.359 --> 00:24:25.160
cobble together whatever you can from the waiver wire.
469
00:24:25.920 --> 00:24:29.119
We talked about before. It's so league dependent and also
470
00:24:29.200 --> 00:24:31.880
depends on what the timeline looks like. For Bobby Waad, Like,
471
00:24:31.960 --> 00:24:34.400
right now, we don't know if he's going to go
472
00:24:34.440 --> 00:24:35.960
on the IL, and then if he does, what does
473
00:24:35.960 --> 00:24:38.160
that sort of timeline look like. If it's just short term,
474
00:24:38.200 --> 00:24:40.880
then I'm probably not making a deal. But if I'm
475
00:24:40.920 --> 00:24:42.960
a highly competitive team and I feel like there's not
476
00:24:43.119 --> 00:24:45.880
enough on the wire to replace him and he's gonna
477
00:24:45.880 --> 00:24:47.640
be out for a while, then sure, I got no
478
00:24:47.720 --> 00:24:49.359
problems in making a trade if I need to.
479
00:24:50.880 --> 00:24:52.680
Yeah, I'm with you there. I think the fact that
480
00:24:53.920 --> 00:24:56.920
it right now at least seems like it'll be fairly minor.
481
00:24:57.319 --> 00:24:59.680
I'm more inclined to just see what I can piece
482
00:24:59.720 --> 00:25:03.599
together from the waiver wire. But if something does come
483
00:25:03.680 --> 00:25:06.039
up in further testing down the road here and it
484
00:25:06.079 --> 00:25:07.799
sounds like it's going to be a more major injury,
485
00:25:07.839 --> 00:25:12.759
then I might start seeking a more notable replacement via trade.
486
00:25:14.880 --> 00:25:17.519
And a few minor league injuries to get to here,
487
00:25:17.559 --> 00:25:21.359
Hagen Smith is dealing with shoulder impingement. He's going to
488
00:25:21.400 --> 00:25:24.200
be shut down for two weeks before ramping back up
489
00:25:24.240 --> 00:25:27.799
to game action. We've got Kayln Culpepper dealing with a
490
00:25:27.880 --> 00:25:30.799
hip strain. I know a lot of people were thinking
491
00:25:30.920 --> 00:25:34.000
and hoping that his debut could be on the horizon.
492
00:25:34.119 --> 00:25:38.000
Unfortunately that is now shut down. Those talks are now
493
00:25:38.039 --> 00:25:40.119
shut down for a little while with this injury. We've
494
00:25:40.119 --> 00:25:44.039
got Waye and Lynn dealing with a shoulder injury, Ethan Sallas,
495
00:25:44.079 --> 00:25:46.440
who is having a huge bounce back year, is on
496
00:25:46.480 --> 00:25:49.480
the ie out with an oblique injury, and Kel steven
497
00:25:49.559 --> 00:25:52.720
who we recently talked about dealing with some elbow issues.
498
00:25:52.960 --> 00:25:56.480
It's now been reported that he will require Tommy John surgery.
499
00:25:56.480 --> 00:25:59.880
So Taylor that one. Kel Stephen is obviously the big one.
500
00:26:00.039 --> 00:26:03.160
As far as how his stock is affected. I know
501
00:26:03.279 --> 00:26:06.440
I had him as a fringe top one hundred prospect
502
00:26:06.799 --> 00:26:10.039
right about now because we are working on our next
503
00:26:10.119 --> 00:26:13.640
update to the Top prospects list. This though, for me,
504
00:26:13.759 --> 00:26:16.960
has pushed him down probably more than one hundred spots.
505
00:26:17.000 --> 00:26:20.240
I've got him probably outside of my top two hundred
506
00:26:20.319 --> 00:26:22.319
at this point, where as I noted, he was maybe
507
00:26:22.359 --> 00:26:25.759
a fringe top one hundred for me before the news
508
00:26:25.799 --> 00:26:28.799
of Tommy John surgery. So how far down are you
509
00:26:28.839 --> 00:26:32.079
moving Cal Stevens there? And is there anybody else on
510
00:26:32.119 --> 00:26:35.279
this list that concerns you in the long term?
511
00:26:35.880 --> 00:26:38.359
Yeah, I think you're right to drop him. Quite a
512
00:26:38.400 --> 00:26:40.079
bit for Steven. You know, you were at the high
513
00:26:40.079 --> 00:26:42.400
guy on him in the May update. You had him
514
00:26:42.400 --> 00:26:44.640
at eighty seven. He ended up one twenty nine in
515
00:26:44.680 --> 00:26:48.319
our consensus, And I think right now, if that's where
516
00:26:48.319 --> 00:26:50.279
I had him, I would probably drop him down in
517
00:26:50.359 --> 00:26:52.599
the two fifty range. I still think he should be
518
00:26:52.640 --> 00:26:54.559
rostered in leagues of two to fifty plus. But yeah,
519
00:26:54.759 --> 00:26:59.279
significant hit for a guy that was a promising pitching prospect.
520
00:26:59.480 --> 00:27:03.559
Wasn't in the upper tier of pitching prospects there And sorry,
521
00:27:03.599 --> 00:27:04.480
what was your second question?
522
00:27:05.119 --> 00:27:07.400
Is there anything else in this list of injuries that
523
00:27:07.480 --> 00:27:11.039
maybe concerns you long term? I know, for me, looking
524
00:27:11.079 --> 00:27:13.960
at Hagen Smith with a shoulder impingement, I know they're
525
00:27:14.000 --> 00:27:16.519
saying shut down for two weeks. He'll ramp back up
526
00:27:16.559 --> 00:27:19.319
after that. But we're talking about a shoulder injury to
527
00:27:19.400 --> 00:27:22.400
a pitcher here, So that one, while it's not super
528
00:27:22.400 --> 00:27:26.079
concerning right now, I do really need to hear some
529
00:27:26.160 --> 00:27:27.519
good news in a couple of weeks.
530
00:27:28.680 --> 00:27:30.640
Yeah, I think the one for me is actually Ethan Sallace.
531
00:27:30.759 --> 00:27:32.279
We talked about it's a big bounce back here. The
532
00:27:32.279 --> 00:27:33.759
reason why it's a big bounce back here is he's
533
00:27:33.759 --> 00:27:36.759
dealt with injuries the past couple of years, and here
534
00:27:36.839 --> 00:27:40.000
we are yet again another one and catchers get banged
535
00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:44.880
up and Ethan Sallace's best tool is his catcher defense
536
00:27:44.960 --> 00:27:47.720
and his ability as a catcher. So if he can't
537
00:27:47.759 --> 00:27:50.200
stay on the field, that's a big problem for his
538
00:27:50.240 --> 00:27:54.279
future value. And what happens if we see him come
539
00:27:54.319 --> 00:27:56.319
back from the injury and then he struggles again, what's
540
00:27:56.400 --> 00:27:58.599
that going to do for his value? And how are
541
00:27:58.599 --> 00:28:03.160
we going to determine what's injury versus what's talent. So, yeah,
542
00:28:03.200 --> 00:28:07.559
I'm definitely concerned that it's yet another injury for Ethan Sallas. Yeah.
543
00:28:07.559 --> 00:28:09.319
I think that's a really good call out too. The
544
00:28:09.359 --> 00:28:12.039
one thing that maybe encourages me a little bit there
545
00:28:12.200 --> 00:28:14.359
is that the major injury that took him out for
546
00:28:14.480 --> 00:28:17.279
all of last year was a back injury. This isn't
547
00:28:17.440 --> 00:28:20.400
back at least, but obliques are connected to your back,
548
00:28:20.480 --> 00:28:23.480
so that's not ideal either. Let's move on to some
549
00:28:23.519 --> 00:28:27.039
demotions here, though, some notable names getting sent back down
550
00:28:27.079 --> 00:28:30.160
as well as Ryan Waldschmitt got sent down by the Diamondbacks,
551
00:28:30.200 --> 00:28:33.440
Andrew Painter got demoted by the Phillies, and Moises by
552
00:28:33.440 --> 00:28:36.119
Asteros got sent down by the Cubs. Now, none of
553
00:28:36.160 --> 00:28:38.880
these guys were really tearing it up in the big leagues,
554
00:28:39.119 --> 00:28:42.680
but Ryan Waldschmitt in particular, I thought was really holding
555
00:28:42.720 --> 00:28:44.759
his own. It seems that he is just a victim
556
00:28:44.799 --> 00:28:47.920
of the circumstances of guys coming back off the IL.
557
00:28:48.279 --> 00:28:50.920
I do wonder a little bit if with Jordan Lawler
558
00:28:51.200 --> 00:28:54.039
recently hit in the IL too, maybe Waldschmitt gets his
559
00:28:54.079 --> 00:28:55.960
shot to come back up. But I think the main
560
00:28:56.000 --> 00:28:59.160
thing here is that they just want Walschmitt getting everyday abs,
561
00:28:59.559 --> 00:29:02.759
and with like lordis Guriel coming off the IL, they
562
00:29:02.799 --> 00:29:06.079
just didn't see Waldschmant getting those everyday ads in the
563
00:29:06.079 --> 00:29:08.920
big league. So I think that we probably see him
564
00:29:09.400 --> 00:29:12.839
back up, maybe sooner than a Painter or Biasteros. But
565
00:29:12.960 --> 00:29:15.119
do you think either of those two have a chance
566
00:29:15.160 --> 00:29:17.440
to make it back up before Waldschmidt does. Or are
567
00:29:17.519 --> 00:29:21.039
you with me that the Diamondbacks outfielder is probably the
568
00:29:21.079 --> 00:29:22.759
next name that we see coming back up.
569
00:29:23.920 --> 00:29:26.200
Yeah, I think Waldschmidt is on his way back up.
570
00:29:26.240 --> 00:29:28.279
Since being sent down, He's had four games, He's hit
571
00:29:28.319 --> 00:29:30.279
home runs in two of them. The fact that now
572
00:29:31.039 --> 00:29:33.359
Lawler is back on the AL are you really gonna
573
00:29:33.519 --> 00:29:38.160
play Jorge Barosa over giving Walters Schmidt another opportunity. Like
574
00:29:38.200 --> 00:29:42.000
you mentioned, it wasn't the greatest debut, but he was
575
00:29:42.640 --> 00:29:44.680
holding his own then. I don't know. I think he
576
00:29:44.720 --> 00:29:47.400
should be fine to come back up relatively soon.
577
00:29:48.480 --> 00:29:50.240
Yeah, I'm with you one hundred percent there. So we're
578
00:29:50.240 --> 00:29:54.000
gonna quickly touch on one DFA as Luis ren Heifo
579
00:29:54.480 --> 00:29:58.039
was designated for assignment by the Brewers with some exciting
580
00:29:58.119 --> 00:30:00.920
call up that we will get to later on here.
581
00:30:01.279 --> 00:30:04.400
But Taylor Renchifo has bounced around the league. He's always
582
00:30:04.400 --> 00:30:06.799
been a jack of all trades, but in my opinion,
583
00:30:06.920 --> 00:30:10.480
was never even good at really anything that he did.
584
00:30:10.519 --> 00:30:13.400
He was good enough to always find a job. Do
585
00:30:13.440 --> 00:30:15.359
you think he finds another job and do you think
586
00:30:15.400 --> 00:30:18.359
it's a fantasy relevant landing spot for him?
587
00:30:18.960 --> 00:30:21.519
Yeah, I think he'll probably find another job. I have
588
00:30:21.640 --> 00:30:23.920
not liked Rangifo in the past. Let me be clear,
589
00:30:24.079 --> 00:30:26.799
I agree with everything you said, but coming into this
590
00:30:26.880 --> 00:30:31.200
year as basically a free option in the middle infield,
591
00:30:31.519 --> 00:30:34.599
somebody who going to the Brewers, maybe they unlock something.
592
00:30:35.279 --> 00:30:36.880
I was only to take a kind of deep leak
593
00:30:36.960 --> 00:30:38.960
shot on him, but it just hasn't worked out. And
594
00:30:39.519 --> 00:30:41.079
if it's not going to work out for the Brewers,
595
00:30:41.440 --> 00:30:43.799
I'm wondering where it is going to work out. So
596
00:30:43.839 --> 00:30:47.279
I think, for from my perspective, I think he's pretty
597
00:30:47.359 --> 00:30:50.640
much done being fancy relevant until further notice. And I
598
00:30:50.640 --> 00:30:53.559
don't know that there's anywhere he could be acquired where
599
00:30:53.559 --> 00:30:55.839
I would change my mind on that. Definitely a name
600
00:30:55.839 --> 00:30:58.480
that I'm I don't think I'm going to be having
601
00:30:58.480 --> 00:30:59.799
any shares of moving on.
602
00:31:00.640 --> 00:31:02.480
Yeah, I think that's a good shout that coming into
603
00:31:02.559 --> 00:31:06.960
the year, he looked like a decent, relatively free acquisition
604
00:31:07.079 --> 00:31:08.920
to take a chance on. But like you said, if
605
00:31:09.240 --> 00:31:11.920
it's not gonna work out with the Brewers, it's probably
606
00:31:11.920 --> 00:31:14.920
not gonna work out anywhere. The one landing spot that
607
00:31:15.200 --> 00:31:16.799
maybe they get the most out of him is like
608
00:31:16.839 --> 00:31:19.559
a Tampa Bay that's basically been the Brewers of the
609
00:31:19.599 --> 00:31:22.559
American League, where they just always seem to get the
610
00:31:22.599 --> 00:31:24.880
most out of somebody. But I don't know that they've
611
00:31:24.880 --> 00:31:26.759
got room for him either, So it'll be interesting to
612
00:31:26.759 --> 00:31:28.799
see where he lands. But I think I'm with you
613
00:31:28.880 --> 00:31:32.039
where it probably doesn't matter enough for me to be
614
00:31:32.119 --> 00:31:37.319
interested regardless of where he lands. Let's get into the
615
00:31:37.519 --> 00:31:39.920
exciting part of the episode. Now we've got some minor
616
00:31:40.000 --> 00:31:43.400
league promotions. We're gonna start in the upper miners, where
617
00:31:43.480 --> 00:31:46.920
Manuel Payana of the Arizona Diamondbacks has been promoted to
618
00:31:47.079 --> 00:31:49.440
Triple A, and then we've got a handful of names
619
00:31:49.480 --> 00:31:52.079
moving up to Double A, including a couple of Brewers
620
00:31:52.160 --> 00:31:56.079
in Josh Adamschewsky and Andrew Fisher. Caleb Bonnemer has been
621
00:31:56.359 --> 00:31:59.000
promoted to Double A as well by the White Sox,
622
00:31:59.039 --> 00:32:02.880
and Malcolm Moore was promoted by the Texas Rangers. Taylor,
623
00:32:02.920 --> 00:32:04.559
I think the big name that we need to talk
624
00:32:04.599 --> 00:32:07.960
about here is Manuel Paynia, not because he's a name
625
00:32:08.000 --> 00:32:11.519
that I necessarily think is super fantasy relevant, but because
626
00:32:11.559 --> 00:32:14.680
of the season that he's having. He is putting up
627
00:32:14.799 --> 00:32:18.200
monstrous numbers. He's hit it's the twenty six home runs
628
00:32:18.279 --> 00:32:21.680
or something at this point, just an incredible year, and
629
00:32:21.759 --> 00:32:24.440
yet we haven't talked about him at all. And that's
630
00:32:24.480 --> 00:32:27.519
because the approach isn't very good, the contact skills aren't
631
00:32:27.640 --> 00:32:30.400
very good. He's just making the most of the contact
632
00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:33.680
that he is making. So what would you say to
633
00:32:33.720 --> 00:32:38.119
somebody looking at Manuel Painia's numbers and asking why nobody
634
00:32:38.160 --> 00:32:39.559
is talking about him?
635
00:32:40.759 --> 00:32:43.000
I think you mentioned some good points. One is the
636
00:32:43.079 --> 00:32:47.160
approach is not great. The contact is not horrific, but
637
00:32:47.279 --> 00:32:51.640
it's not great either. And there's also the track record
638
00:32:51.839 --> 00:32:55.799
of just bad minor league performance going back all the
639
00:32:55.799 --> 00:33:00.920
way to basically his DSL season in twenty twenty one
640
00:33:01.160 --> 00:33:04.599
is the only season he's had where he's posted a
641
00:33:04.720 --> 00:33:07.960
WRC plus over one hundred in a full season, and
642
00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:11.279
that was a one oh five WRC plus when he
643
00:33:11.319 --> 00:33:13.319
was a seventeen year old in twenty twenty one. So
644
00:33:14.119 --> 00:33:17.119
a long track record of just not being very good.
645
00:33:17.640 --> 00:33:19.480
And then on top of it, you have, Yes, he's
646
00:33:19.559 --> 00:33:22.680
hit twenty six home runs. That's amazing, other than the
647
00:33:22.680 --> 00:33:27.279
fact that came in one of the best offensive minor
648
00:33:27.359 --> 00:33:32.519
league ballparks in Amarillo. There So the Diamondbacks Double A
649
00:33:32.519 --> 00:33:36.079
affiliate has basically one of the best park factors in
650
00:33:36.119 --> 00:33:39.160
the minors for home runs. And here you have Manuel
651
00:33:39.160 --> 00:33:43.799
Payna having this unforeseen power breakout in Double A there,
652
00:33:44.279 --> 00:33:47.079
prior to Double A had never hit more than five
653
00:33:47.119 --> 00:33:50.880
home runs in a season. Yeah, I think there are
654
00:33:51.200 --> 00:33:53.279
all kinds of red flags here, and I don't think
655
00:33:53.319 --> 00:33:55.759
this is someone that we need to be all that
656
00:33:55.960 --> 00:33:59.799
interested in. Yeah, He's a name that, if I'm being honestly,
657
00:33:59.799 --> 00:34:02.920
I'd briefly looked at earlier in the season. I think
658
00:34:02.960 --> 00:34:05.880
maybe when he cracked fifteen home runs somewhere around there.
659
00:34:06.319 --> 00:34:08.599
Because of the numbers he was putting up, I dove
660
00:34:08.639 --> 00:34:12.239
in further, I had no interest. I almost wrote him up,
661
00:34:12.639 --> 00:34:15.519
but the last line I would have written was if
662
00:34:15.519 --> 00:34:19.000
you have him, sell high, and that's just not somebody
663
00:34:19.039 --> 00:34:22.400
that I can realistically recommend as an ad if I'm
664
00:34:22.400 --> 00:34:25.639
then telling you to immediately get rid of him. So
665
00:34:25.760 --> 00:34:27.760
I think the main thing here is, if you do
666
00:34:27.880 --> 00:34:31.800
have any Manuel Painia shares, try to offload him while
667
00:34:31.800 --> 00:34:35.440
you can. Because as as much as the numbers might
668
00:34:35.480 --> 00:34:37.440
still look good in triple A, I think that it's
669
00:34:37.519 --> 00:34:41.000
fairly hit her friendly there in the Diamondbacks affiliate as well.
670
00:34:41.559 --> 00:34:45.960
I just don't see a meaningful big league fantasy career
671
00:34:46.239 --> 00:34:48.119
coming for Manuel Pinias. So I think you got to
672
00:34:48.159 --> 00:34:51.320
get out while the value is high here. Before we
673
00:34:51.320 --> 00:34:53.159
move on to the low levels of the miners tailor,
674
00:34:53.239 --> 00:34:55.480
was there anybody from the group moving up to double
675
00:34:55.519 --> 00:34:56.440
A that you wanted.
676
00:34:56.159 --> 00:34:59.320
To touch on? Yeah, speaking of selling high, let's talk
677
00:34:59.320 --> 00:35:03.039
about Andrew Fisher real quick huge power this year, but
678
00:35:03.159 --> 00:35:06.519
the contact has been brutal, and I just don't know
679
00:35:06.559 --> 00:35:08.079
if this is gonna work now. I know you were
680
00:35:08.119 --> 00:35:10.599
and Andrew Fisher guy coming into the year. Where are
681
00:35:10.599 --> 00:35:12.000
you at with him? Do you agree with me that
682
00:35:12.079 --> 00:35:14.679
he might be a sell high right now just based
683
00:35:14.719 --> 00:35:16.000
on the really bad contact.
684
00:35:16.880 --> 00:35:19.719
I do agree with you that he might be a
685
00:35:19.760 --> 00:35:23.519
cell high. He's a name that I'm really wrestling with.
686
00:35:23.880 --> 00:35:26.519
I think I probably still have him too high on
687
00:35:26.559 --> 00:35:28.880
my list and he needs to get moved on. I
688
00:35:28.920 --> 00:35:33.559
do think he's probably still a fringe top one hundred
689
00:35:33.719 --> 00:35:36.519
ish name, But I'm curious where you would land if
690
00:35:36.519 --> 00:35:38.320
you were ranking him right now.
691
00:35:42.519 --> 00:35:44.559
This is a tough one because I feel like I've
692
00:35:45.000 --> 00:35:47.280
been the low guy on him. I was at draft time.
693
00:35:47.440 --> 00:35:50.840
Let me see where the consensus falls on him. Oh wow,
694
00:35:51.000 --> 00:35:54.920
you guys had him as a sixty ninth overall player. Yea,
695
00:35:54.960 --> 00:35:56.800
Tom's the only one to have him outside their top
696
00:35:56.840 --> 00:35:59.400
one hundred. You would definitely be outside my top one hundred.
697
00:35:59.400 --> 00:36:02.400
I think I would struggle to have him higher than
698
00:36:02.639 --> 00:36:04.760
one fifty or even two hundred, so I would be
699
00:36:05.079 --> 00:36:08.199
considerably lower than everyone else on him. I think part
700
00:36:08.199 --> 00:36:10.480
of that is just I wasn't fully bought in coming
701
00:36:10.480 --> 00:36:13.159
in because of the hit tool, and I'm getting some
702
00:36:13.599 --> 00:36:16.480
confirmation bias with just kind of how bad it's been.
703
00:36:16.559 --> 00:36:19.039
Now the approach has been good in terms of the
704
00:36:19.159 --> 00:36:22.519
number of walks, but I just wonder how's that going
705
00:36:22.599 --> 00:36:25.679
to end up at the higher levels. Soba will be
706
00:36:25.679 --> 00:36:28.280
a big test for him. I just I can't put
707
00:36:28.320 --> 00:36:30.639
him in a top one hundred with a thirty three
708
00:36:30.880 --> 00:36:33.480
percent strikeout rate in the low miners.
709
00:36:34.000 --> 00:36:36.480
Yeah, and I think that's fair. The one thing holding
710
00:36:36.519 --> 00:36:39.840
me back from really pushing him even outside of my
711
00:36:39.880 --> 00:36:42.280
top one hundred at this point is the fact that
712
00:36:42.519 --> 00:36:46.079
we are seeing more and more players with this profile
713
00:36:46.800 --> 00:36:49.599
succeed because even when there is a lot of swing
714
00:36:49.639 --> 00:36:51.880
and miss, you can hedge that with a good approach. Now,
715
00:36:51.920 --> 00:36:54.760
obviously doing it in the lower levels of the miners
716
00:36:54.800 --> 00:36:57.440
is one thing compared to even the upper levels, compared
717
00:36:57.480 --> 00:37:01.880
to the big leagues. But somebody like a Muna talka Murakami,
718
00:37:01.920 --> 00:37:05.360
who I was quite low on because of the swing
719
00:37:05.400 --> 00:37:08.400
and miss, I've kind of missed on because the approach
720
00:37:08.519 --> 00:37:12.559
is so good that it really counterbalances that swing and miss. Now,
721
00:37:12.840 --> 00:37:16.199
I don't know that Fisher necessarily has even the same
722
00:37:16.320 --> 00:37:18.880
level of contact as a Murakami at this point, or
723
00:37:18.960 --> 00:37:21.719
the same level of an approach. But I am a
724
00:37:21.800 --> 00:37:24.440
little bit more lenient on the swing and miss guys
725
00:37:24.440 --> 00:37:28.559
when they have the approach. So far this year, I'd like,
726
00:37:28.639 --> 00:37:32.199
I say, I'm coming around on it because of missing
727
00:37:32.199 --> 00:37:34.840
on a guy like Murakami. So I wonder if maybe
728
00:37:34.880 --> 00:37:38.920
that's where even maybe there's an over correction in our
729
00:37:38.960 --> 00:37:42.079
rankings right now due to some of these profiles that
730
00:37:42.079 --> 00:37:43.679
we've missed on in the past.
731
00:37:44.239 --> 00:37:46.280
Yeah, I think that's a really valid point. I just
732
00:37:46.320 --> 00:37:48.840
don't know, Like when you have a sixty two percent
733
00:37:48.920 --> 00:37:51.639
contact rate, I don't know. I just don't know that
734
00:37:51.800 --> 00:37:54.920
I'm there with Fisher in particular. I get the Murakami thing,
735
00:37:55.039 --> 00:37:57.599
and yeah, a lot of people look foolish, including myself
736
00:37:57.639 --> 00:38:01.639
on Murakami, But nine times out of ten, that player's
737
00:38:01.679 --> 00:38:04.360
kind of flame out. Murkami's the exception, not the rule.
738
00:38:04.559 --> 00:38:07.360
And let's wait to see Mirkammi do it over a
739
00:38:07.400 --> 00:38:11.639
full season before we crown that he's like this amazing
740
00:38:11.679 --> 00:38:15.039
player going forward. There's still plenty of risk in that profile.
741
00:38:15.559 --> 00:38:18.519
Yes, absolutely, we still need to see it for the
742
00:38:18.559 --> 00:38:20.960
remainder of the season when he comes back. So that's
743
00:38:20.960 --> 00:38:23.199
a really good point there too. Let's move into the
744
00:38:23.199 --> 00:38:25.239
low levels of the miners here, though, we had a
745
00:38:25.440 --> 00:38:28.159
trio of players movement up to high A in Kenri
746
00:38:28.320 --> 00:38:31.519
Churio of the Royals, Ramon Marquez of the Phillies, who
747
00:38:31.559 --> 00:38:35.400
we recently talked about and who dominated in his HIA debut,
748
00:38:35.760 --> 00:38:39.320
and JD. Dix of the Diamondbacks, and moving up to
749
00:38:39.559 --> 00:38:42.840
single A from the complex level, Sebastian Dos Santos, who
750
00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:45.920
has had a fantastic year so far, and Matthew Fisher
751
00:38:46.000 --> 00:38:50.000
of the Phillies. So we've got a handful of pitchers
752
00:38:50.000 --> 00:38:53.000
and hitters here, Taylor, is there anybody that's jumping off
753
00:38:53.039 --> 00:38:55.639
this list to you as somebody that you need to
754
00:38:55.639 --> 00:38:57.079
go out and grab right now?
755
00:38:58.559 --> 00:39:02.880
Chario, Marquez, Do Santos. All those guys should be grabbed
756
00:39:02.920 --> 00:39:06.280
if they're available in it appropriately size league, right all
757
00:39:06.320 --> 00:39:09.960
of them. I think Tario is like top one hundred guy.
758
00:39:10.280 --> 00:39:12.880
Marquez is probably like a one to fifty guy. Do
759
00:39:13.039 --> 00:39:15.920
Santos probably similar in that one to fifty range. There's
760
00:39:16.000 --> 00:39:18.760
probably a lot of leagues where those guys are already
761
00:39:18.760 --> 00:39:21.480
snatched up. But I think all of them are up
762
00:39:21.639 --> 00:39:24.360
arrow guys. I think the one that we haven't really
763
00:39:24.360 --> 00:39:27.559
heard about this year, but I think bears mentioning is JD. Dix.
764
00:39:27.719 --> 00:39:30.920
He was one of my picks and my bold predictions
765
00:39:30.960 --> 00:39:34.039
to break out this year. It's been a solid year
766
00:39:34.119 --> 00:39:36.320
one fourteen WRC plus, but I think the big thing
767
00:39:36.400 --> 00:39:38.920
is that the power has really come along this year.
768
00:39:38.920 --> 00:39:41.320
And this is a guy who dealt with I think
769
00:39:41.400 --> 00:39:44.159
some injuries last year that could have been sapping that.
770
00:39:44.280 --> 00:39:47.320
But this year nine home runs so far, two sixteen
771
00:39:47.400 --> 00:39:50.960
ISO and forty eight games in single A. Last year
772
00:39:51.039 --> 00:39:53.480
had just two home runs in eighty nine games. So
773
00:39:53.519 --> 00:39:56.800
it's really good to see that power come around for JD. Dix.
774
00:39:57.079 --> 00:39:58.840
I know he's rostered in a lot of leagues already,
775
00:39:58.880 --> 00:40:01.800
but this is a guy who just has pretty good
776
00:40:01.840 --> 00:40:03.719
tools across the board, and I think now that he's
777
00:40:03.760 --> 00:40:05.920
in high A, if he can keep that power going
778
00:40:05.960 --> 00:40:08.119
at age twenty, I think he's going to be rising
779
00:40:08.199 --> 00:40:09.599
up a lot of lists. But he's just a guy
780
00:40:09.599 --> 00:40:12.440
who gotten overshadowed so far this year. I haven't really
781
00:40:12.480 --> 00:40:13.840
heard a lot about him.
782
00:40:14.679 --> 00:40:16.280
Yeah, I think that's a good shout that we maybe
783
00:40:16.320 --> 00:40:18.639
need to pay a little bit more attention to what JD.
784
00:40:18.800 --> 00:40:22.199
Dix is doing. We'll move on to some big league
785
00:40:22.239 --> 00:40:25.159
promotions here real quick. Taylor Carson wizen Hunt has been
786
00:40:25.159 --> 00:40:27.519
called up to the bigs by your Giants, and Christian
787
00:40:27.519 --> 00:40:30.400
Moore and Ryan Johnson were called up by the Angels.
788
00:40:30.800 --> 00:40:33.199
I'll let you dive into wiz and Hunt specifically, because
789
00:40:33.239 --> 00:40:37.079
I'm curious to hear if if you're encouraged by anything
790
00:40:37.079 --> 00:40:39.360
that you've seen in his time in the minors this year.
791
00:40:39.960 --> 00:40:42.800
But which of this group would you be most interested
792
00:40:42.800 --> 00:40:44.880
in for fantasy at this point? Is it wizen Hunt
793
00:40:44.960 --> 00:40:47.360
or is it one of those Angels players. No, that's
794
00:40:47.440 --> 00:40:50.800
Christian Moore and it's not particularly close. He's made some
795
00:40:50.840 --> 00:40:53.039
contact games at Triple A, and I expect him to
796
00:40:53.079 --> 00:40:55.320
be a lot better in the majors this time around.
797
00:40:55.679 --> 00:40:58.880
Obviously a guy with a lot of pedigree. There was
798
00:40:58.960 --> 00:41:01.199
some issues with the hit and there's probably still going
799
00:41:01.239 --> 00:41:03.000
to be some issues with the hit tool. But I
800
00:41:03.039 --> 00:41:04.639
think this is a guy with a lot of upside,
801
00:41:04.679 --> 00:41:07.239
and I think maybe there's people who have soured on
802
00:41:07.320 --> 00:41:09.480
him quite a bit. I think the stock has taken
803
00:41:09.719 --> 00:41:11.760
quite a big hit, and I think you can probably
804
00:41:11.760 --> 00:41:14.880
acquire him for relatively cheap, and I think there's a
805
00:41:14.880 --> 00:41:18.480
potential breakout season coming for him. Wasn't that as interesting?
806
00:41:18.840 --> 00:41:22.800
He increased his velocity in the beginning of the year.
807
00:41:22.840 --> 00:41:27.599
I'm not sure it's held four seams up about one
808
00:41:27.639 --> 00:41:31.519
mile an hour in TRIPAA, but nothing substantial there. So
809
00:41:31.559 --> 00:41:34.079
I do think he's kind of who he has been,
810
00:41:34.280 --> 00:41:37.960
and I think that can be a solid back end starter,
811
00:41:38.199 --> 00:41:40.920
especially in that ballpark. But I don't think there's a
812
00:41:41.000 --> 00:41:44.320
ton of upside there that I once thought there was. Yeah,
813
00:41:44.320 --> 00:41:46.280
I think I'm with you that more is more interesting
814
00:41:46.360 --> 00:41:50.000
than the pitchers here. I used to really like Ryan Johnson,
815
00:41:50.079 --> 00:41:52.360
but the Angels have just messed with him so much
816
00:41:52.400 --> 00:41:55.039
that I can't trust him at this point. I've never
817
00:41:55.119 --> 00:41:57.679
been a huge wizen Hunt fan, and I don't see
818
00:41:57.719 --> 00:42:01.000
any reason for that to have changed. I don't Christian Moore.
819
00:42:01.079 --> 00:42:04.039
I still see a lot of deficiencies in the hit tool,
820
00:42:04.159 --> 00:42:06.719
but I think of the trio we've got here, he's
821
00:42:06.760 --> 00:42:09.960
probably the name that I'd be most interested in, But
822
00:42:10.039 --> 00:42:11.800
I'm not going out and looking to buy any of
823
00:42:11.840 --> 00:42:12.559
them personally.
824
00:42:13.599 --> 00:42:15.880
No, the exception for Movie More. I think the price
825
00:42:15.920 --> 00:42:17.800
is low enough on more that you can get a
826
00:42:17.840 --> 00:42:19.480
pretty good deal on him, and I think it's worth
827
00:42:19.639 --> 00:42:22.880
the investment based on the upside there, Taylor. That's a
828
00:42:22.880 --> 00:42:25.719
great segua moving into our big league debuts, because somebody
829
00:42:25.719 --> 00:42:28.079
that got a pretty good deal from their big league
830
00:42:28.079 --> 00:42:31.159
club before even making their debut was Cooper Pratt, who
831
00:42:31.320 --> 00:42:34.800
has now been called up by the Brewers. In fifty
832
00:42:34.840 --> 00:42:37.400
eight Triple A games this year, he slashed two forty one,
833
00:42:37.480 --> 00:42:40.400
three forty nine, three eighty six, hit six homers, stole
834
00:42:40.480 --> 00:42:44.079
seventeen bases, struck out just fourteen percent of the time,
835
00:42:44.199 --> 00:42:47.280
and walked thirteen percent of the time. He's held his
836
00:42:47.320 --> 00:42:49.159
own so far in the big leagues with a three
837
00:42:49.239 --> 00:42:52.440
seventy five three eighty nine, three seventy five slash. No
838
00:42:52.559 --> 00:42:55.039
extra base hits yet, but he's getting on base plenty
839
00:42:55.320 --> 00:42:58.639
and he's stolen three bases already in five games here.
840
00:42:59.159 --> 00:43:03.000
I think the con with Pratt is somewhat similar to
841
00:43:03.079 --> 00:43:04.679
one we had a couple of weeks ago with lou
842
00:43:04.800 --> 00:43:08.079
James Gruover when he made his debut, because Pratt is
843
00:43:08.119 --> 00:43:11.440
going to be a relatively safe floor thanks to his ratios,
844
00:43:11.760 --> 00:43:13.519
but the counting stats are going to be a bit
845
00:43:13.559 --> 00:43:16.280
of a question mark, and his best format will probably
846
00:43:16.320 --> 00:43:19.320
be points leagues. Now, the difference here compared to Groover
847
00:43:19.719 --> 00:43:23.320
is that I've got Pratt significantly higher because I am
848
00:43:23.440 --> 00:43:28.480
significantly more confident in the floor that Pratt currently presents,
849
00:43:28.519 --> 00:43:31.239
in part because the defense is so good, but I'm
850
00:43:31.239 --> 00:43:33.719
also more confident in the ceiling that he could one
851
00:43:33.800 --> 00:43:36.920
day provide because he's a big kid who just hasn't
852
00:43:37.000 --> 00:43:39.480
really gotten to his power yet, and I could see
853
00:43:39.519 --> 00:43:42.679
that coming. He could, I think, take a similar path
854
00:43:42.719 --> 00:43:45.239
to what a Bryce tou Rang has taken for the Brewers,
855
00:43:45.239 --> 00:43:47.599
where maybe the first year or two you don't see
856
00:43:47.639 --> 00:43:49.800
a lot of that power, but the last couple of
857
00:43:49.800 --> 00:43:53.320
seasons tou Rang's power production has really risen. So if
858
00:43:53.480 --> 00:43:57.119
Pratt can follow that kind of format that Tourang has,
859
00:43:57.519 --> 00:43:59.960
I think this could be a really nice fantasy player
860
00:44:00.079 --> 00:44:02.360
going forward here. I'm curious to get your thoughts on
861
00:44:02.400 --> 00:44:05.960
Cooper Pratt. Though, yeah, I mostly agree with everything you said.
862
00:44:06.159 --> 00:44:08.599
I think some changes need to be made for him
863
00:44:08.599 --> 00:44:10.360
to get into more power. I wouldn't expect it at
864
00:44:10.360 --> 00:44:12.360
this point, but I think there's a high enough floor there,
865
00:44:12.639 --> 00:44:15.559
and particularly with the contract obviously, the Brewers believe in him.
866
00:44:16.320 --> 00:44:18.960
That's a big endorsement. There doesn't always work out with
867
00:44:18.960 --> 00:44:22.880
these contracts, look at Christian Campbell. It's a cautionary tale,
868
00:44:22.920 --> 00:44:25.519
but I do think there's a pretty solid floor. There
869
00:44:25.840 --> 00:44:29.880
definitely upside for more power in that six or four frame.
870
00:44:29.960 --> 00:44:32.119
It's just a matter of will he ever make the
871
00:44:32.119 --> 00:44:34.119
adjustments to get there. And I think Terrain is a
872
00:44:34.159 --> 00:44:38.320
good example of like when that could happen. Still super young.
873
00:44:38.599 --> 00:44:41.119
So yeah, I like Cooper Pratt. I have a couple
874
00:44:41.159 --> 00:44:45.239
of shares, but I don't know that I'm expecting much now.
875
00:44:45.320 --> 00:44:48.840
I think this is like you're expecting a middle infield
876
00:44:48.880 --> 00:44:52.280
type of player now versus somebody that you're going to
877
00:44:52.360 --> 00:44:55.360
be your starting shortstop with the hope that he will
878
00:44:55.400 --> 00:44:57.880
become that in the future. Yeah.
879
00:44:57.920 --> 00:44:59.639
Absolutely, I think that's a great way to put it.
880
00:44:59.679 --> 00:45:02.280
This sear you might not get great things out of him,
881
00:45:02.320 --> 00:45:04.480
probably more of an empty ratio sort of player than
882
00:45:04.480 --> 00:45:06.559
anything else. But again, I think in at points league
883
00:45:06.559 --> 00:45:08.320
you can probably be a little bit more confident in
884
00:45:08.360 --> 00:45:11.039
plugging him into your lineup on a regular basis.
885
00:45:12.880 --> 00:45:13.039
Yeah.
886
00:45:13.199 --> 00:45:15.440
Right, we're gonna pair a couple of hitters together, and
887
00:45:15.480 --> 00:45:17.840
then we're gonna finish off with a couple of arms
888
00:45:17.880 --> 00:45:20.960
making their debuts before we get into our recommendation. So
889
00:45:21.079 --> 00:45:24.039
in the batter's box we see Khalil Watson of the
890
00:45:24.159 --> 00:45:27.079
Guardians and Kyler Fedco of the Twins, both making their
891
00:45:27.119 --> 00:45:31.400
debuts this past week. Two interesting but very different stories
892
00:45:31.400 --> 00:45:34.760
here because Watson was once a very highly thought of prospect,
893
00:45:35.119 --> 00:45:37.320
specifically when he was coming out of the draft in
894
00:45:37.360 --> 00:45:40.639
twenty twenty one, but he has had his issues both
895
00:45:40.679 --> 00:45:43.800
on and off the field. He's been better in recent years,
896
00:45:43.840 --> 00:45:46.480
but really doesn't present the same upside that he was
897
00:45:46.480 --> 00:45:48.960
once thought to hold. On the flip side of things,
898
00:45:49.039 --> 00:45:51.599
Fedcot is a different story in that he's never really
899
00:45:51.639 --> 00:45:54.679
had much hype, even after a strong breakout campaign in
900
00:45:54.760 --> 00:45:58.880
twenty twenty five. Now neither one has done anything yet
901
00:45:59.400 --> 00:46:01.519
in their first week of the big leagues. I think
902
00:46:01.559 --> 00:46:04.400
Fedco has reached base once, which is one more time
903
00:46:04.440 --> 00:46:07.639
than Watson. But Taylor, of these two, which one would
904
00:46:07.679 --> 00:46:10.199
you rather take a shot on in fantasy? Are you
905
00:46:10.239 --> 00:46:13.039
looking at the post type Khalil Watson or the slept
906
00:46:13.079 --> 00:46:14.000
on Kyler Fedco?
907
00:46:15.000 --> 00:46:18.440
Yeah, it's Watson. Reason why is because he's getting playing time,
908
00:46:18.880 --> 00:46:21.119
So that's the biggest reason. But the other reason is
909
00:46:21.119 --> 00:46:23.400
I just think there's a little bit more there Fedco.
910
00:46:23.559 --> 00:46:25.519
I wrote him up last year. He went twenty eight
911
00:46:25.559 --> 00:46:27.800
and thirty eight last year in home runs and steels,
912
00:46:28.039 --> 00:46:30.239
fifteen home runs, nine stolen bases already this year. But
913
00:46:30.760 --> 00:46:35.119
older prospect kind of contact is okay. But I just
914
00:46:35.159 --> 00:46:36.960
don't know that there's enough there for him to be
915
00:46:37.000 --> 00:46:39.199
more than like a quad a guy. And he's not
916
00:46:39.239 --> 00:46:41.960
getting regular opportunities for the Twins. I'm not sure he
917
00:46:42.039 --> 00:46:47.000
ever will. Khalil Watson, the Guardian scene invested in giving
918
00:46:47.079 --> 00:46:50.039
him some playing time. He's shown some stuff over the
919
00:46:50.119 --> 00:46:54.039
last couple of years. I think there's, you know, potential
920
00:46:54.039 --> 00:46:56.440
Fantasy viability there. He's got some power, got some speed,
921
00:46:57.119 --> 00:47:00.360
but like you said, like it's definitely a down grade
922
00:47:00.360 --> 00:47:03.079
from where he was when he was DRAFTEDFYPDS, and he's
923
00:47:03.119 --> 00:47:05.400
just not that same player at all at this point.
924
00:47:05.480 --> 00:47:07.280
I have a little bit of hope for Watson, but
925
00:47:07.320 --> 00:47:09.719
I'm not super confident that one's gonna work out either.
926
00:47:10.400 --> 00:47:12.639
Yeah, I agree with you wholeheartedly here on both of
927
00:47:12.679 --> 00:47:14.679
those guys. So we're gonna move right into the two
928
00:47:14.800 --> 00:47:18.199
arms getting the call for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Those names
929
00:47:18.199 --> 00:47:21.000
are Cole Drake and Jose Cabrera. Now, Cole Drake is
930
00:47:21.039 --> 00:47:23.719
a prospect that I have really liked in the past,
931
00:47:23.840 --> 00:47:27.119
but has fallen down the rankings over the last kind
932
00:47:27.159 --> 00:47:29.760
of year and a half because he has really struggled
933
00:47:29.800 --> 00:47:33.400
since reaching Triple A last season. On the other side
934
00:47:33.400 --> 00:47:35.760
of things, Jose Cabrera is more of an unknown but
935
00:47:35.880 --> 00:47:38.679
is having something of a breakout season this year. And
936
00:47:38.840 --> 00:47:41.880
as mentioned earlier, the Diamondbacks had both Ryan Nelson and
937
00:47:41.920 --> 00:47:44.880
Mike Soroka hit the IL this week, so that seems
938
00:47:44.920 --> 00:47:47.559
to open up a couple rotation spots for these two
939
00:47:47.599 --> 00:47:51.760
young arms. Cabrera is actually making his big league debut
940
00:47:51.880 --> 00:47:55.960
starting for the Diamondbacks later today. But Taylor, are you
941
00:47:56.199 --> 00:48:00.320
interested in either of these players making their big league
942
00:48:00.320 --> 00:48:03.199
debuts for your fantasy rosters because both of them are
943
00:48:03.360 --> 00:48:05.119
very widely available right now.
944
00:48:06.559 --> 00:48:08.760
Yeah, I'm taking a wait and see approach with them,
945
00:48:08.760 --> 00:48:11.239
but I think if either one pitches well, I will
946
00:48:11.280 --> 00:48:14.400
be picking up shares. I think there's enough talent there
947
00:48:14.880 --> 00:48:18.719
that's worth doing. I think with Drake specifically, I think
948
00:48:18.760 --> 00:48:21.000
part of the problem is just Reno is a really
949
00:48:21.679 --> 00:48:24.480
hit her friendly environment. So I do wonder if we
950
00:48:24.559 --> 00:48:28.239
see these guys perform a little bit better than expected
951
00:48:28.239 --> 00:48:30.360
in the majors because Triple A is just such a
952
00:48:30.360 --> 00:48:32.760
harsh environment. Well, look what we saw with the Las
953
00:48:32.880 --> 00:48:35.880
Vegas series, with the athletics there and just the insanity
954
00:48:35.960 --> 00:48:40.639
of the PCL environment there. So I wouldn't be surprised
955
00:48:40.719 --> 00:48:45.000
if Drake performs better than expected. Jose Cabrera, I to
956
00:48:45.039 --> 00:48:47.400
be honest, I haven't followed him super closely, but it
957
00:48:47.400 --> 00:48:50.679
looks like there's enough intriguing things there that again, if
958
00:48:50.719 --> 00:48:53.360
he performs well, I'll probably start picking up some shares
959
00:48:53.360 --> 00:48:55.320
because you just never know what these pitchers and who's
960
00:48:55.360 --> 00:48:57.880
going to break out when they start in the major league. Look,
961
00:48:57.880 --> 00:49:00.480
I'm at Peter Lambert this year, who's been awesome that
962
00:49:00.639 --> 00:49:03.119
nobody would have expected that coming into this year. I'm
963
00:49:03.119 --> 00:49:05.519
always willing to take that shot in the dark on
964
00:49:05.559 --> 00:49:07.920
these pitchers and then churn them out of it if
965
00:49:07.920 --> 00:49:08.800
they can't keep it up.
966
00:49:09.639 --> 00:49:11.840
Yeah, that's a great call that we at this point
967
00:49:11.840 --> 00:49:14.159
probably just need to pay attention to what the numbers
968
00:49:14.199 --> 00:49:16.320
look like in their first few starts in the big
969
00:49:16.400 --> 00:49:18.760
leagues here, but Taylor, that does it for the news
970
00:49:18.760 --> 00:49:21.920
and notes. Let's get into those recommendations, and let's start
971
00:49:21.920 --> 00:49:23.880
with the print the player that you are bringing to
972
00:49:23.920 --> 00:49:26.760
the table from Raja's article earlier this week.
973
00:49:27.920 --> 00:49:31.519
Yeah, this is one Martinez of the Brewers, nineteen year
974
00:49:31.559 --> 00:49:35.440
old second third baseman at their complex level. Lit'st at
975
00:49:35.480 --> 00:49:38.679
five to eleven, one seventy switch hitter, and Raj wrote
976
00:49:38.719 --> 00:49:40.360
him up when he was one percent roster. He's now
977
00:49:40.400 --> 00:49:43.440
four percent rosters, so definitely gaining some hype. I think
978
00:49:43.440 --> 00:49:46.519
a big part of that is Alex Jensen, our Prospects
979
00:49:46.519 --> 00:49:49.000
Live colleague, went on a couple podcasts this week and
980
00:49:49.239 --> 00:49:53.000
was singing the praises of Juan Martinez. Juan Martinez made
981
00:49:53.039 --> 00:49:55.679
his the DSL debut in twenty twenty four, posted just
982
00:49:55.719 --> 00:49:58.039
a ninety eight WRC plus orpe the level in twenty
983
00:49:58.079 --> 00:50:01.840
twenty five, posted a much better won fifty WRSC plus,
984
00:50:01.920 --> 00:50:04.599
and this year he's come stateside kept up that performance
985
00:50:04.639 --> 00:50:07.119
with a one to fifty eight WRSC plus. He's already
986
00:50:07.119 --> 00:50:09.440
doubled his home run total from twenty twenty four and
987
00:50:09.480 --> 00:50:12.559
twenty twenty five combined this season, with four home runs
988
00:50:12.599 --> 00:50:15.119
so far in thirty one games, two thirty eight ISO
989
00:50:15.440 --> 00:50:17.440
He's also shown a great approach with more walks than
990
00:50:17.480 --> 00:50:20.599
strikeouts fourteen point four percent walk rate just a ten
991
00:50:20.639 --> 00:50:23.480
point four percent strikeout rate. Contact has been solid with
992
00:50:23.519 --> 00:50:26.280
the seventy nine point six percent contact rate. He's also
993
00:50:26.280 --> 00:50:28.440
been a monster on the base pass so far, stealing
994
00:50:28.679 --> 00:50:31.559
nineteen bases and twenty one attempts after stealing twenty four
995
00:50:31.880 --> 00:50:34.679
and twenty five attempts last year. Like I mentioned, Alex
996
00:50:35.039 --> 00:50:37.880
Jensen recently raved about him on the Prospects Live podcast
997
00:50:37.960 --> 00:50:40.440
this week, with Greg Hucamp giving him a scouting report
998
00:50:40.440 --> 00:50:42.800
of above average hit tool, average power, and plus speed.
999
00:50:42.840 --> 00:50:46.920
So that sounds really nice. Raj does question the power, however,
1000
00:50:47.280 --> 00:50:49.880
noting a mediocre max EV and a steep drop and
1001
00:50:49.920 --> 00:50:52.480
poll air rates this season. He expects more of a
1002
00:50:52.519 --> 00:50:56.159
ten to fifteen home run future power, but I think
1003
00:50:56.159 --> 00:50:59.840
that's still a pretty valuable fantasy asset when combined with
1004
00:51:00.159 --> 00:51:02.760
speed in the hit tool. Now, there are some red
1005
00:51:02.800 --> 00:51:05.480
flags here. While he's played two games this year at shortstop,
1006
00:51:05.519 --> 00:51:08.559
Martinez primarily split time between second and third base, and
1007
00:51:08.639 --> 00:51:11.159
Alex and his scouting report said that he would likely
1008
00:51:11.199 --> 00:51:13.400
be a blow average but capable defender at one of
1009
00:51:13.400 --> 00:51:16.480
those locations second or third. I think bad defense is
1010
00:51:16.519 --> 00:51:18.280
going to put a lot of pressure on the bat,
1011
00:51:18.320 --> 00:51:21.519
particularly with power, and I'm kind of more with Raj
1012
00:51:21.599 --> 00:51:23.440
that this is probably going to be a ten to
1013
00:51:23.480 --> 00:51:27.000
fifteen home run threat rather than a twenty home run threat.
1014
00:51:27.480 --> 00:51:30.159
According to Complex Baseball dot Com, which is a tool
1015
00:51:30.199 --> 00:51:33.440
that captures Arizona Complex League stack cast, out of the
1016
00:51:33.440 --> 00:51:36.480
seventy three players with at least ten batted ball events
1017
00:51:36.519 --> 00:51:40.599
tracked via stat cast in the ACL, Martinez ranks fiftieth
1018
00:51:40.679 --> 00:51:42.679
out of seventy three with an eighty five point one
1019
00:51:43.000 --> 00:51:46.039
mile an hour average EV and despite being tied for
1020
00:51:46.079 --> 00:51:48.760
the most batted ball events tracked by stat cast at
1021
00:51:48.800 --> 00:51:52.199
the level, his max EV just ranks forty second overall,
1022
00:51:52.440 --> 00:51:55.719
so the evs have not been that impressive compared to
1023
00:51:55.840 --> 00:51:58.719
others at the level. He also repeated the DSL and
1024
00:51:58.760 --> 00:52:01.079
while he did just turn nineteen in April, so he's
1025
00:52:01.079 --> 00:52:03.960
still at age appropriate for the level, he's being slow
1026
00:52:03.960 --> 00:52:05.920
played by the Brewers, which are one of the most,
1027
00:52:06.000 --> 00:52:08.639
if not the most aggressive organization in the majors at
1028
00:52:08.679 --> 00:52:11.360
promoting their prospects to lower levels. Now, some of that
1029
00:52:11.440 --> 00:52:13.280
might be a long jam by just the fact of
1030
00:52:13.280 --> 00:52:16.159
how many notable prospects they have, but it could also
1031
00:52:16.239 --> 00:52:19.599
signal that the Brewers are just not that high on Martinez.
1032
00:52:19.679 --> 00:52:23.760
Within the organization, Raj has Martinez a pick up and
1033
00:52:23.800 --> 00:52:25.480
leads of three hundred plus prospects, and I think that's
1034
00:52:25.480 --> 00:52:27.679
around the right number. I think you can be reasonably
1035
00:52:27.679 --> 00:52:30.079
confident in the hit tool and the speed, but the
1036
00:52:30.079 --> 00:52:31.679
whole run power is a bit of a question mark.
1037
00:52:31.760 --> 00:52:34.360
The lack of defensive ability scares me as well. You
1038
00:52:34.440 --> 00:52:36.199
can have a big league career as a poor defender
1039
00:52:36.239 --> 00:52:38.760
if you bring power, but it doesn't matter how many
1040
00:52:38.760 --> 00:52:43.480
bases you steal. If you can't hit for impact or
1041
00:52:43.559 --> 00:52:45.719
aren't a good defender, you're not going to have playing
1042
00:52:45.760 --> 00:52:48.559
time in the bigs. That's just a fact. So I
1043
00:52:48.639 --> 00:52:52.320
just don't see a profile where you don't have the
1044
00:52:52.320 --> 00:52:57.119
defense and you potentially don't have the power necessarily working out.
1045
00:52:57.480 --> 00:53:00.280
But because of that, this is not a profile will
1046
00:53:00.320 --> 00:53:02.440
typically chase, but it is the Brewers. They have a
1047
00:53:02.440 --> 00:53:05.039
great track record, Hype is building on Martinez, so I
1048
00:53:05.039 --> 00:53:07.599
think if you're interested in this profile, now is a
1049
00:53:07.599 --> 00:53:09.239
great time to take a shot on him in medium
1050
00:53:09.239 --> 00:53:11.239
sized league. So, like I said, I agree with Roger
1051
00:53:11.280 --> 00:53:14.159
about the three hundred plus prospects leagues as being the
1052
00:53:14.199 --> 00:53:16.159
place to pick him up, But curious on what your
1053
00:53:16.199 --> 00:53:16.559
thoughts are.
1054
00:53:16.639 --> 00:53:19.800
Kyle, Yeah, I'm a little bit torn on one. Martinez.
1055
00:53:19.840 --> 00:53:23.239
I agree with just about everything that you said. I
1056
00:53:23.280 --> 00:53:27.559
do think that the approach is maybe more average than
1057
00:53:27.840 --> 00:53:31.079
truly strong, like you might expect based on the Kada
1058
00:53:31.159 --> 00:53:33.320
walk ratio there. When we look at his chase rate,
1059
00:53:33.679 --> 00:53:37.039
it's a relatively average chase rate, and he's quite aggressive
1060
00:53:37.079 --> 00:53:39.360
in the zone, which is good, but I think that
1061
00:53:39.559 --> 00:53:43.719
is keeping the strikeout rates down quite a bit at
1062
00:53:43.719 --> 00:53:46.400
this point. I think we might see a few more
1063
00:53:46.440 --> 00:53:48.639
strikeouts going forward. I think we might see that Kida
1064
00:53:48.719 --> 00:53:52.960
walk ratio normalize a little bit to a more average level,
1065
00:53:53.159 --> 00:53:55.440
which again not a bad thing when we're talking about
1066
00:53:55.480 --> 00:53:58.239
the profile overall. The speed is nice. I agree with
1067
00:53:58.400 --> 00:54:01.639
kind of the ten to fifteen homer profile more than
1068
00:54:01.679 --> 00:54:06.440
twenty plus, in particular because his ground ball rate has
1069
00:54:06.599 --> 00:54:10.480
really spiked since coming Stateside. It was thirty percent in
1070
00:54:10.519 --> 00:54:13.679
the DSL, it's up to forty four percent in complex ball.
1071
00:54:14.280 --> 00:54:19.119
So I'd say I'm more cautiously optimistic than really excited
1072
00:54:19.159 --> 00:54:22.840
about Martinez, and I'd say I'm a little bit lower
1073
00:54:22.880 --> 00:54:25.079
than you and raj are. I think given the hype
1074
00:54:25.079 --> 00:54:27.639
that he's been getting, you probably do need to go
1075
00:54:27.719 --> 00:54:30.519
add him in those leagues of around three hundred plus
1076
00:54:30.559 --> 00:54:34.559
prospects rostered, But I personally wouldn't be looking to add
1077
00:54:34.639 --> 00:54:37.679
him in anything shallower than maybe three point fifty to
1078
00:54:37.719 --> 00:54:39.079
four hundred plus.
1079
00:54:40.079 --> 00:54:42.159
Yeah, that's totally fair. And like I said, I think
1080
00:54:43.000 --> 00:54:45.400
the hype level makes the three hundred plus where you
1081
00:54:45.440 --> 00:54:48.000
need to pick him up. But I haven't picked up
1082
00:54:48.000 --> 00:54:51.599
any shares, so maybe that tells you where I am
1083
00:54:51.639 --> 00:54:52.039
on him.
1084
00:54:52.920 --> 00:54:56.440
Yeah, it sounds like we largely agree on one Martinez then,
1085
00:54:56.480 --> 00:54:58.920
so I'm going to get into my first recommendation here.
1086
00:54:58.920 --> 00:55:01.440
This is another one down in the low miners, a
1087
00:55:01.559 --> 00:55:04.440
nineteen year old in Baltimore's system. I'm looking at Jaden
1088
00:55:04.519 --> 00:55:07.960
low Ray here. He's in single A. He's most third
1089
00:55:08.000 --> 00:55:10.320
base and center field this year, but he's also seen
1090
00:55:10.360 --> 00:55:12.960
time at second base and shortstop. So another sort of
1091
00:55:13.039 --> 00:55:16.639
utility man here, which is as you noted with Martinez,
1092
00:55:16.639 --> 00:55:19.320
maybe a little bit of a strike against him. He's
1093
00:55:19.360 --> 00:55:22.039
listed at five to eleven point eighty. He's one percent
1094
00:55:22.159 --> 00:55:26.800
rostered on fan tracks and unranked at prospects live. In
1095
00:55:26.880 --> 00:55:29.599
thirty three games this year between the Complex level and
1096
00:55:29.679 --> 00:55:32.559
single A, he's slashing three forty five four to forty
1097
00:55:32.599 --> 00:55:36.360
one four sixty nine with two home runs, fourteen steals,
1098
00:55:36.679 --> 00:55:40.159
a nine percent strikeout rate, and a fifteen percent walk.
1099
00:55:40.239 --> 00:55:44.480
Right now, low Ray came into the season with frankly
1100
00:55:44.599 --> 00:55:47.920
little to no fanfare. But all he's done as a
1101
00:55:47.960 --> 00:55:51.199
professional is hit, and that actually started back in spring
1102
00:55:51.280 --> 00:55:54.320
training because he got into a couple of games, a
1103
00:55:54.320 --> 00:55:57.400
couple of Great Fruit League games for the Orioles and
1104
00:55:57.440 --> 00:56:00.840
went two for three with a walk mixed in. Officially,
1105
00:56:01.000 --> 00:56:03.880
his pro career started in the Florida Complex League, though,
1106
00:56:03.880 --> 00:56:06.079
which means we've got some batt at ball data for him,
1107
00:56:06.079 --> 00:56:08.480
and I'll get to that shortly. But his stats in
1108
00:56:08.519 --> 00:56:11.400
the FCL were solid. He slashed three fifty four four
1109
00:56:11.480 --> 00:56:14.519
twenty one four sixty two, He hit one home run,
1110
00:56:14.559 --> 00:56:17.480
stole seven bases. He struck out just eight percent of
1111
00:56:17.519 --> 00:56:20.159
the time, and walked at a twelve percent clip. Now,
1112
00:56:20.199 --> 00:56:23.519
that strikeout rate obviously stands out, and it was backed
1113
00:56:23.519 --> 00:56:27.599
by a ridiculous ninety five percent overall contact rate as
1114
00:56:27.679 --> 00:56:30.920
well as a measley two percent swinging strike rate. In
1115
00:56:31.000 --> 00:56:33.679
the FCL, so it's no surprise that it took just
1116
00:56:33.800 --> 00:56:36.840
twenty games for the Orioles to promote low rate to
1117
00:56:36.960 --> 00:56:40.079
full season ball. And he really hasn't slowed down at all,
1118
00:56:40.159 --> 00:56:42.559
because so far in single A his slash line is
1119
00:56:42.559 --> 00:56:45.719
three thirty three four sixty seven four to seventy nine.
1120
00:56:46.039 --> 00:56:48.000
He's got one home run at the level, as well
1121
00:56:48.039 --> 00:56:51.400
as seven more steals, while his strikeout rate has ballooned
1122
00:56:51.599 --> 00:56:54.639
all the way to nearly ten percent and he's walking
1123
00:56:54.679 --> 00:56:57.719
nearly twenty percent of the time. Now, the contact rates
1124
00:56:57.719 --> 00:57:01.239
have remained stellar. He's making ninety one percent contact in
1125
00:57:01.320 --> 00:57:04.519
single A, just a four percent swinging strike rate, and
1126
00:57:04.559 --> 00:57:07.760
as you might expect based on those contact rates, there
1127
00:57:07.760 --> 00:57:11.440
hasn't been a ton of power in game, but it's
1128
00:57:11.480 --> 00:57:14.440
not non existent. He's chipped in six doubles and a
1129
00:57:14.480 --> 00:57:17.039
triple for a total of nine extra base hits. It's
1130
00:57:17.119 --> 00:57:19.639
just a one twenty four ISO, but as I noted,
1131
00:57:19.639 --> 00:57:21.800
he started the year in the FCL, so we do
1132
00:57:21.880 --> 00:57:25.360
have some batted ball data and it isn't as bad
1133
00:57:25.400 --> 00:57:28.159
as you might think. It's not great. With a max
1134
00:57:28.199 --> 00:57:30.400
of one oh five, his average was eighty eight and
1135
00:57:30.440 --> 00:57:34.320
a half miles per hour. They're not great, they're respectable numbers,
1136
00:57:34.320 --> 00:57:37.280
they're not non zero power. And he did post a
1137
00:57:37.360 --> 00:57:40.360
fifty percent hard hit rate even though his EV ninety
1138
00:57:40.440 --> 00:57:43.199
was just ninety nine percent or sorry, ninety nine miles
1139
00:57:43.199 --> 00:57:45.840
per hour. So while he isn't likely to ever be
1140
00:57:45.880 --> 00:57:48.000
a big time home run hitter, he might not even
1141
00:57:48.039 --> 00:57:52.039
reach the ten to fifteen level that Ajan Martinez does.
1142
00:57:52.719 --> 00:57:57.920
I not entirely sold on him being a zero power
1143
00:57:58.000 --> 00:58:01.280
guy either. I think there's more juice in the tank
1144
00:58:01.360 --> 00:58:03.559
than what he's shown so far. I think he could
1145
00:58:03.599 --> 00:58:08.599
grow into maybe ten ish home runs again, fifteen plus
1146
00:58:08.719 --> 00:58:11.480
might even be pushing it. Though the other knock here
1147
00:58:11.599 --> 00:58:14.119
is I'm not entirely sold on the stolen base aspect
1148
00:58:14.199 --> 00:58:16.639
of his game either. He has gone fourteen for eighteen
1149
00:58:16.679 --> 00:58:19.760
on attempts so far this year. Scouting reports seemed to
1150
00:58:19.840 --> 00:58:24.719
be more fringe average on the run grade here. So
1151
00:58:24.880 --> 00:58:28.079
because of the lack of present power production, because of
1152
00:58:28.119 --> 00:58:31.760
the uncertainty around his stolen bases, it's really difficult to
1153
00:58:31.880 --> 00:58:36.239
project a ton of fantasy ceiling for low Ray. Because
1154
00:58:36.280 --> 00:58:39.079
the contact skills and approach are so strong, I think
1155
00:58:39.119 --> 00:58:42.440
there is a chance he could develop into more fantasy
1156
00:58:42.519 --> 00:58:45.719
upside down the road. Again, this takes quite a bit
1157
00:58:45.719 --> 00:58:48.639
of projection to get to. I think he's worth taking
1158
00:58:48.679 --> 00:58:51.079
a look at in deeper leagues. That four hundred to
1159
00:58:51.079 --> 00:58:54.400
four hundred and fifty plus prospects rostered range. I do
1160
00:58:54.519 --> 00:58:57.480
understand though, why someone might be even a bit lower
1161
00:58:57.519 --> 00:58:59.840
than that on him. And I know Taylor that this
1162
00:58:59.920 --> 00:59:02.679
is a profile you haven't been crazy about in the past,
1163
00:59:02.920 --> 00:59:05.639
So I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Jaden low Ray.
1164
00:59:07.039 --> 00:59:10.079
Yeah, we talked about it a little bit with with Martinez.
1165
00:59:10.119 --> 00:59:12.840
I just feel like in the modern game, in order
1166
00:59:12.920 --> 00:59:17.320
for you to be just a regular everyday guy, you
1167
00:59:17.480 --> 00:59:22.199
have to have either power or if you don't have power,
1168
00:59:22.320 --> 00:59:25.440
you have to have some combination of very good hit
1169
00:59:25.480 --> 00:59:29.199
tool can steal a lot of bases and play good defense.
1170
00:59:29.199 --> 00:59:31.840
And primarily, like in a real life sense, it's you
1171
00:59:31.840 --> 00:59:33.519
have to have a good hit tool and be able
1172
00:59:33.559 --> 00:59:35.599
to play good defense. The stolen bases are more in
1173
00:59:35.599 --> 00:59:40.519
the fancy sense to have some viability. Ran through those
1174
00:59:40.519 --> 00:59:42.840
things with low Ray. So the hit tool, check, he's
1175
00:59:42.880 --> 00:59:45.960
got that right, Like the contact's been excellent, He's got
1176
00:59:46.000 --> 00:59:49.119
the hit tool. What about the defense? What is his
1177
00:59:49.159 --> 00:59:52.199
future in the major it's going to look like Defensively,
1178
00:59:52.760 --> 00:59:54.480
the fact that he's played most of his games at
1179
00:59:54.480 --> 00:59:56.920
third base this year is a pretty big red flag
1180
00:59:56.960 --> 00:59:59.400
for a guy that might not hit more than ten
1181
00:59:59.440 --> 01:00:02.519
home runs as a major leaguer. He has bounced around,
1182
01:00:02.519 --> 01:00:04.519
he's played second, he's played short, he's played center, so
1183
01:00:04.559 --> 01:00:07.039
he has played up the middle. But those have been
1184
01:00:07.159 --> 01:00:10.880
more mixed in with the third base. And even if
1185
01:00:10.920 --> 01:00:15.159
he's a utility profile, I don't think that holds well
1186
01:00:15.239 --> 01:00:18.880
for his viabilia of being an everyday guy in the future.
1187
01:00:19.760 --> 01:00:22.119
What is he going to bring besides good ratios with
1188
01:00:22.159 --> 01:00:24.159
the hit tool in the playing time that he does
1189
01:00:24.199 --> 01:00:28.719
get stolen bases potentially, But like you said, you poured
1190
01:00:28.800 --> 01:00:30.960
some cold water on how much the stolen bases are
1191
01:00:30.960 --> 01:00:34.159
really going to persist there in the future. So you
1192
01:00:34.159 --> 01:00:36.079
hold on this guy for a few years he makes
1193
01:00:36.119 --> 01:00:40.920
the majors, what's the realistic outcome for him? Bench utility
1194
01:00:40.960 --> 01:00:44.480
bat with very little power and maybe average number of
1195
01:00:44.519 --> 01:00:47.480
stolen bases. That's not all that exciting to me. Now,
1196
01:00:47.519 --> 01:00:50.719
like you said, like four hundred ranking, I think I'm
1197
01:00:50.760 --> 01:00:52.639
okay with that. Once you get past the four hundred,
1198
01:00:52.800 --> 01:00:55.480
it's just a matter of whose profile you like, But
1199
01:00:55.639 --> 01:00:59.239
currently this is not one that super interests me unless
1200
01:00:59.280 --> 01:01:03.280
we see the power take a step forward or we
1201
01:01:03.360 --> 01:01:06.880
get much more invested in either the defense or the
1202
01:01:06.880 --> 01:01:11.559
stole invaseability. Yeah, there's, like I said, definitely some projection
1203
01:01:11.840 --> 01:01:14.920
that needs to be that needs to happen before he
1204
01:01:15.039 --> 01:01:19.920
really becomes fantasy relevant. But again, this is a fifth
1205
01:01:20.000 --> 01:01:24.239
round prep pick. There's always some projection involved with this
1206
01:01:24.320 --> 01:01:26.840
sort of player, right, So if he can reach some
1207
01:01:26.960 --> 01:01:29.159
of that upside, maybe he gets a little more interesting.
1208
01:01:29.199 --> 01:01:31.039
But I think right now, with what you look at,
1209
01:01:31.639 --> 01:01:35.239
while it's not super sexy from a fantasy perspective, if
1210
01:01:35.280 --> 01:01:39.280
he becomes like an Isaiah Kiner FILEFA, it's probably a
1211
01:01:39.320 --> 01:01:42.280
win from a real life standpoint. It's not super interesting
1212
01:01:42.320 --> 01:01:45.559
outside of deep leagues for fantasy, but I think that
1213
01:01:45.559 --> 01:01:50.719
there's enough skill there to be deep league fantasy relevant,
1214
01:01:50.719 --> 01:01:53.280
which is where we're talking about potentially adding him at
1215
01:01:53.280 --> 01:01:56.679
this point. Yeah, I think if it's a very deep
1216
01:01:56.760 --> 01:01:59.679
like thirty team league or potentially a points league where
1217
01:02:00.199 --> 01:02:02.960
the power might not matter as much, then yeah, I
1218
01:02:03.000 --> 01:02:05.559
definitely think there's some intrigue there. But but like you said,
1219
01:02:05.599 --> 01:02:07.639
we're talking about four hundred plus prospects, Like, we're not
1220
01:02:07.719 --> 01:02:10.039
expecting him to be a star necessarily.
1221
01:02:10.320 --> 01:02:14.719
No, absolutely not. There would be some very unexpected things
1222
01:02:14.719 --> 01:02:16.639
that would need to happen for him to even become
1223
01:02:16.679 --> 01:02:19.360
like a Chandler Simpson level of a player with that
1224
01:02:19.440 --> 01:02:22.480
contact and speed sort of combination. But Taylor, let's move
1225
01:02:22.519 --> 01:02:24.559
on to your second name here. We talked about Cooper
1226
01:02:24.599 --> 01:02:27.800
Pratt earlier. We just finished with Juan Martinez. Let's get
1227
01:02:27.840 --> 01:02:30.880
back into that Brewer system, and let's talk about somebody
1228
01:02:30.920 --> 01:02:32.559
that I don't know about you, but I'm maybe even
1229
01:02:32.599 --> 01:02:34.920
a little bit more excited about than one Martinez.
1230
01:02:36.280 --> 01:02:39.880
Yeah, this is a pretty pretty exciting player. And probably not,
1231
01:02:40.079 --> 01:02:43.039
but maybe there's a star outcome here. And that's with
1232
01:02:43.199 --> 01:02:46.840
Leander's moto's of the Brewers again. This is my Brewers
1233
01:02:46.880 --> 01:02:53.159
episode here, sixteen years old, sixteen second basement, third basement
1234
01:02:53.239 --> 01:02:57.000
in the Brewers organization in the DSL five ten one
1235
01:02:57.119 --> 01:03:00.599
seventy five. This is listed height and weight, right handed hitter,
1236
01:03:01.159 --> 01:03:04.639
two percent rostered on fan tracks. Now, he was my
1237
01:03:04.760 --> 01:03:06.639
runner up for my pick last week. I ended up
1238
01:03:06.639 --> 01:03:08.800
going with Brett Callahan instead pushing I would have gone
1239
01:03:08.800 --> 01:03:12.119
with matos As at the time, he was pretty unheralded.
1240
01:03:12.159 --> 01:03:14.519
He's gotten a little bit of buzz since then. Shout
1241
01:03:14.519 --> 01:03:17.159
out to PJ who outbid me for Matos in the
1242
01:03:17.280 --> 01:03:20.599
p Live Staff League this last weekend. But I think
1243
01:03:20.639 --> 01:03:22.920
what drew me to Montos and the reason I didn't
1244
01:03:23.039 --> 01:03:24.800
go with him last week is just I don't know
1245
01:03:24.880 --> 01:03:27.159
a lot about the guy. There's not a lot out
1246
01:03:27.199 --> 01:03:29.159
there in terms of scouting reports and stuff like that,
1247
01:03:29.719 --> 01:03:32.480
but there's some pretty clear things that I saw that
1248
01:03:32.599 --> 01:03:35.599
I really liked. So one was he was dominating the DSL.
1249
01:03:36.000 --> 01:03:38.079
The other one is he's one of the youngest players
1250
01:03:38.119 --> 01:03:41.480
in the DSL and he's in one of the best
1251
01:03:41.639 --> 01:03:44.800
international development organizations in the Brewers. So far this year,
1252
01:03:44.880 --> 01:03:47.519
Matos has a three to ZHO two four twelve six
1253
01:03:47.639 --> 01:03:50.480
twenty eight slash, thirteen point seven percent walk rate twenty
1254
01:03:50.480 --> 01:03:52.559
one point six percent strike out rate, good for a
1255
01:03:52.559 --> 01:03:54.760
one thirty two WRC plus. He has three home runs,
1256
01:03:54.880 --> 01:03:57.960
a three twenty six ISO and six steals in twelve games.
1257
01:03:59.159 --> 01:04:01.639
And while he wasn't a huge bonus signing coming into
1258
01:04:01.639 --> 01:04:04.840
the DSL, he was notable, getting about three hundred thousand
1259
01:04:05.280 --> 01:04:07.760
out of the Dominican Republic. According to a scouting report
1260
01:04:07.800 --> 01:04:11.360
on Brewer fanatic dot com, Matos quote has more batspeed
1261
01:04:11.400 --> 01:04:13.239
than one would expect from a player of his stature
1262
01:04:13.239 --> 01:04:15.039
and has shown the ability to drive balls into the
1263
01:04:15.039 --> 01:04:17.960
gaps for doubles and triples, though his primary value at
1264
01:04:17.960 --> 01:04:20.519
the plate is his plate discipline and swing decisions. On
1265
01:04:20.599 --> 01:04:23.760
the infield, Matos seems unlikely to stick at shortstop winding
1266
01:04:23.840 --> 01:04:25.679
up at second or third base, but he has enough
1267
01:04:25.719 --> 01:04:28.760
athleticism to handle some outfield work as well, and that
1268
01:04:28.800 --> 01:04:31.719
scouting report rings mostly true. Petting on the defensive side,
1269
01:04:31.760 --> 01:04:33.559
where Matos has played in most of his games at
1270
01:04:33.559 --> 01:04:37.119
third base, with some at second base this year, and
1271
01:04:37.559 --> 01:04:39.920
we talked a little bit about it prior to recording.
1272
01:04:40.000 --> 01:04:43.119
I know you wrote up Diego Frontato in the Brewers
1273
01:04:43.199 --> 01:04:46.199
organization in your article that came out today. He's the
1274
01:04:46.239 --> 01:04:49.079
other big name in the DSL, so you kind of
1275
01:04:49.119 --> 01:04:52.559
asked about comparing the two of them, and when you
1276
01:04:52.599 --> 01:04:55.920
look at Frontato on the surface, he's got the better stats.
1277
01:04:56.159 --> 01:04:58.320
He's posting a higher slash line and there's more home runs,
1278
01:04:58.360 --> 01:05:01.199
more stolen base As a better uproach, he's listed two
1279
01:05:01.239 --> 01:05:04.119
inches taller, plays the majority of his games at shortstop,
1280
01:05:04.159 --> 01:05:06.840
he's a better defender. He also received a bigger bonus
1281
01:05:06.880 --> 01:05:09.679
at one point six million and ranked twenty fourth on
1282
01:05:09.800 --> 01:05:13.079
Pipelines International Prospect League coming into this year. So by
1283
01:05:13.119 --> 01:05:16.320
all accounts, Frontato is the better choice than Matos. But
1284
01:05:17.239 --> 01:05:20.440
the one argument for Matos over Frontato is that Matos,
1285
01:05:20.559 --> 01:05:24.400
while he hasn't quite done what Frontato's done, it's not
1286
01:05:24.559 --> 01:05:27.880
that far off, and he's nearly a year younger. He's
1287
01:05:27.920 --> 01:05:33.199
ten months younger than Frontato, so he also has grounded
1288
01:05:33.199 --> 01:05:36.800
out less. He's got less of extreme pole approach. Both
1289
01:05:36.800 --> 01:05:39.559
are similarly rostered. Frontato's at four percent, Matos is at
1290
01:05:39.559 --> 01:05:42.199
two percent. Based on the pedigree and defensibility, I would
1291
01:05:42.280 --> 01:05:45.280
choose Frontato over Matos if they're both out there in
1292
01:05:45.320 --> 01:05:47.960
a league, but ideally I'd like to have shares of both.
1293
01:05:47.960 --> 01:05:51.840
I think this could potentially be that Penia made type
1294
01:05:51.840 --> 01:05:54.599
of situation where there's a couple of good players coming
1295
01:05:54.639 --> 01:05:57.639
out of this this DSL class with the Brewers, and
1296
01:05:57.800 --> 01:05:59.679
I think you want to try to buy into both
1297
01:05:59.679 --> 01:06:02.840
of them. So my recommendation is Matos is the league
1298
01:06:02.880 --> 01:06:05.320
of pick up in leagues of three hundred plus prospects.
1299
01:06:05.519 --> 01:06:07.079
I know that's the same range you had him in
1300
01:06:07.119 --> 01:06:10.440
with Frontato in your article. I would still take Frontato
1301
01:06:10.480 --> 01:06:12.840
over Matos, but I think there's a lot to like
1302
01:06:12.880 --> 01:06:15.639
in Matos as well. So really curious, Kyle what you
1303
01:06:15.679 --> 01:06:18.880
think of Matos and I think you agree with Frontato
1304
01:06:18.880 --> 01:06:20.480
over Matos. But how close is it?
1305
01:06:21.519 --> 01:06:24.360
Yeah, it sounds like we are almost in lockstep here
1306
01:06:24.440 --> 01:06:27.000
with Frontato on and Mottos. I think the fact that
1307
01:06:27.039 --> 01:06:31.639
Matos is just a half notched down in just about
1308
01:06:31.679 --> 01:06:35.719
every stat despite being I think it's ten months younger.
1309
01:06:35.760 --> 01:06:38.800
It's almost exactly ten months younger, because Matos, I believe,
1310
01:06:38.840 --> 01:06:42.360
turned seventeen in a couple of weeks here. But that's
1311
01:06:42.400 --> 01:06:45.920
beside the point here. The one thing that is concerning
1312
01:06:45.960 --> 01:06:48.280
me with Matos is the fact that he's striking out
1313
01:06:48.320 --> 01:06:50.920
more than he's walking, and specifically the fact that he
1314
01:06:51.000 --> 01:06:53.480
is striking out more than twenty percent of the time.
1315
01:06:53.840 --> 01:06:56.639
Because as you noted, Taylor, you've obviously listened to those
1316
01:06:56.679 --> 01:07:01.280
episodes that Alex Jensen was on. He talked extensively on
1317
01:07:01.360 --> 01:07:03.519
both of the episodes that he was on talking about
1318
01:07:03.599 --> 01:07:08.280
DSL performers, about how bad the pitching is in the
1319
01:07:08.360 --> 01:07:12.679
DSL right now, even compared to usual where we typically
1320
01:07:12.880 --> 01:07:17.480
don't look at DSL arms at all, and Alex Jensen
1321
01:07:17.480 --> 01:07:20.039
said several times that it is even worse than usual.
1322
01:07:20.199 --> 01:07:23.400
So to be having this aggressive of an approach where
1323
01:07:23.440 --> 01:07:25.760
you are striking out more than you're walking, and striking
1324
01:07:25.760 --> 01:07:28.480
out more than twenty percent of the time, that's the
1325
01:07:28.519 --> 01:07:31.400
one thing really holding me back and why I am
1326
01:07:31.519 --> 01:07:35.559
pretty confident in putting Diego Frontato ahead of Matos. But
1327
01:07:36.119 --> 01:07:39.599
it's still close enough where I would probably recommend both
1328
01:07:39.639 --> 01:07:42.920
of them in that three hundred plus roster range.
1329
01:07:44.199 --> 01:07:46.599
Yeah. The one thing I'll say is it's still a
1330
01:07:46.719 --> 01:07:50.559
very small sample twelve games. Yeah, through the sixteenth, which
1331
01:07:50.679 --> 01:07:54.559
was Tuesday, Matos had as many walks of strikeouts at
1332
01:07:54.559 --> 01:07:59.039
sixteen point seven for both, So you know it, He's
1333
01:07:59.079 --> 01:08:02.039
struck out a little bit more over the last half
1334
01:08:02.039 --> 01:08:05.440
week or so. But that just shows you how quickly
1335
01:08:05.519 --> 01:08:08.320
things can change. So I'm not too concerned about the
1336
01:08:08.360 --> 01:08:11.320
strikeout rate being a little over twenty twenty one percent
1337
01:08:11.360 --> 01:08:13.960
at this point. Things can change it again, Like with
1338
01:08:14.079 --> 01:08:16.760
how young he is, that's not as big of a
1339
01:08:16.800 --> 01:08:18.920
red flag as it would be if he was seventeen.
1340
01:08:20.000 --> 01:08:22.359
Yeah, absolutely, and that's why I think it's still appropriate
1341
01:08:22.399 --> 01:08:25.800
to put him just behind front toadto have them both
1342
01:08:25.800 --> 01:08:28.439
in that three hundred plus range rather than pushing Matos
1343
01:08:28.479 --> 01:08:30.079
all the way back to even a three.
1344
01:08:30.039 --> 01:08:32.680
To fifty plus range. Yeah, exactly.
1345
01:08:33.359 --> 01:08:36.439
All right, let's get into our lone arm in this
1346
01:08:36.520 --> 01:08:40.159
podcast and the only player above single A. I'm looking
1347
01:08:40.199 --> 01:08:43.199
at Brian Curley here, twenty three year old right handed
1348
01:08:43.199 --> 01:08:46.560
pitcher in the Diamondback system. He is in high A,
1349
01:08:47.039 --> 01:08:49.600
listed five to ten, two hundred and twelve pounds, three
1350
01:08:49.640 --> 01:08:53.560
percent rostered on fan tracks, ranked four ninety three overall
1351
01:08:53.640 --> 01:08:56.720
at pe Live so far this year, fifty three innings pitched.
1352
01:08:56.760 --> 01:09:00.359
It's a four point zero eight ERA, one point four whip,
1353
01:09:00.439 --> 01:09:04.199
twenty nine percent strikeout rate, and a six percent walk rate. Now,
1354
01:09:04.520 --> 01:09:08.359
Curly is a bit undersized at five foot ten, but
1355
01:09:08.680 --> 01:09:11.079
he has a big time arsenal. It's led by a
1356
01:09:11.079 --> 01:09:13.560
mid to high nineties heater that our scouts gave a
1357
01:09:13.680 --> 01:09:16.640
sixty grade not only because of its velow, but also
1358
01:09:16.720 --> 01:09:18.960
because of the ride that he gets on the pitch
1359
01:09:19.000 --> 01:09:22.600
from a really low release height. At its best, his
1360
01:09:22.680 --> 01:09:27.199
fastball has eclipsed twenty inches of induced vertical break. Now
1361
01:09:27.239 --> 01:09:32.119
of his secondary pitches, our scouts gave his slider the
1362
01:09:32.159 --> 01:09:35.800
most favorable grade at fifty five, and they also called
1363
01:09:35.800 --> 01:09:39.119
it his best swing and miss pitch overall, so strong
1364
01:09:39.159 --> 01:09:42.439
two pitch mix to start there with the fastball slider combo,
1365
01:09:42.760 --> 01:09:45.359
he rounds out his arsenal with a fifty grade cutter
1366
01:09:45.399 --> 01:09:47.960
and a forty grade curveball. So one thing that I'm
1367
01:09:47.960 --> 01:09:50.399
gonna point out right away is that he doesn't have
1368
01:09:50.479 --> 01:09:54.279
a true off speed pitch or a pitch that moves armside,
1369
01:09:54.720 --> 01:09:57.479
and likely because of that, his swing and miss numbers
1370
01:09:57.520 --> 01:10:02.000
against lefties are a bit worse than they are against righties. Specifically,
1371
01:10:02.079 --> 01:10:05.760
his wiff rate drops from a near elite thirty four
1372
01:10:05.880 --> 01:10:10.159
percent against right handed hitters to below average twenty six
1373
01:10:10.239 --> 01:10:13.680
percent against left handed hitters, and the zone contact rate
1374
01:10:13.720 --> 01:10:16.560
allowed rises all the way from seventy two percent against
1375
01:10:16.640 --> 01:10:20.239
righty's to eighty percent when facing lefties. Now, it really
1376
01:10:20.279 --> 01:10:23.319
hasn't hurt him that much yet because the wOBA allowed
1377
01:10:23.439 --> 01:10:26.880
is almost identical against both handed hitters, but I still
1378
01:10:26.880 --> 01:10:29.279
think an off speed pitch would go a long way
1379
01:10:29.319 --> 01:10:32.119
to helping him stick in the rotation and giving him
1380
01:10:32.199 --> 01:10:35.960
a better weapon against left handed hitters. The overall numbers,
1381
01:10:36.000 --> 01:10:38.800
as I noted earlier era above four one point four
1382
01:10:38.800 --> 01:10:41.920
whip they don't jump off the page, but that is
1383
01:10:42.000 --> 01:10:44.880
mostly because of two starts in which he gave up
1384
01:10:45.000 --> 01:10:47.840
ten earned runs over three and a third and five
1385
01:10:47.960 --> 01:10:50.560
earned runs over four and a third earlier in the year.
1386
01:10:50.880 --> 01:10:54.279
If you take those two starts out, his ERA is
1387
01:10:54.560 --> 01:10:57.520
just below two, so a much stronger season without those
1388
01:10:57.560 --> 01:10:59.920
two blow ups. Now, the swing and miss, as I noted,
1389
01:11:00.119 --> 01:11:02.960
is a major part of why he's having so much success.
1390
01:11:03.199 --> 01:11:06.039
Even with the below average wiff rate against lefties, his
1391
01:11:06.159 --> 01:11:09.479
overall whiff rate is still well above average at nearly
1392
01:11:09.520 --> 01:11:12.720
thirty percent, and even when he does allow the ball
1393
01:11:12.760 --> 01:11:14.840
to be put in play, he's getting opponents to hit
1394
01:11:14.880 --> 01:11:18.279
the ball on the ground almost fifty percent of the time. Now,
1395
01:11:18.319 --> 01:11:20.920
as I noted when talking about the pitch mix, there
1396
01:11:21.000 --> 01:11:24.399
is some relief risk in Brian Curley's profile, and while
1397
01:11:24.439 --> 01:11:27.279
the repertoire does play a role, so does the fact
1398
01:11:27.279 --> 01:11:30.000
that he's a bit undersized, as well as the fringy
1399
01:11:30.079 --> 01:11:33.039
command that he showed in college. That command, though, seems
1400
01:11:33.039 --> 01:11:36.680
to have taken a meaningful step forward this year, because
1401
01:11:36.800 --> 01:11:39.319
he has cut his walk rate from ten percent at
1402
01:11:39.319 --> 01:11:42.640
Georgia trying to be prior to being drafted down to
1403
01:11:42.880 --> 01:11:45.680
six percent so far as a pro, and he's throwing
1404
01:11:45.760 --> 01:11:49.079
sixty seven percent of his pitches for strikes. So as
1405
01:11:49.119 --> 01:11:51.760
long as the improved command can stick, I think he's
1406
01:11:51.800 --> 01:11:54.239
got a decent shot to stick as a starter. And
1407
01:11:54.279 --> 01:11:56.479
at just three percent rostered, he is going to be
1408
01:11:56.600 --> 01:11:59.640
widely available. But if he gets a promotion to double A,
1409
01:12:00.000 --> 01:12:02.560
which is certainly possible given how well he's pitched in
1410
01:12:03.159 --> 01:12:06.000
outside of those two rough starts, I think his stock
1411
01:12:06.079 --> 01:12:08.760
could really rise. I think you need to go add
1412
01:12:08.840 --> 01:12:11.680
him in leagues with two hundred and fifty plus prospects rostered,
1413
01:12:11.720 --> 01:12:15.319
with the understanding that he could soon become even more
1414
01:12:15.359 --> 01:12:19.560
relevant in shallower leagues than that. Taylor, I know this
1415
01:12:19.600 --> 01:12:22.319
is someone you really like to It's gonna be hard
1416
01:12:22.319 --> 01:12:25.159
to find him available in any league that you are in.
1417
01:12:25.680 --> 01:12:28.800
But let's hear what got you so excited about Brian
1418
01:12:28.840 --> 01:12:30.319
Curley earlier this week.
1419
01:12:31.119 --> 01:12:32.840
Yeah, I think you're referring to the fact that I
1420
01:12:33.000 --> 01:12:35.039
just picked him up everywhere. I think he left the
1421
01:12:35.079 --> 01:12:37.960
owner of eight chairs of Brian Curley. You mentioned a
1422
01:12:38.000 --> 01:12:40.399
lot of it. This is a guy who coming to
1423
01:12:40.439 --> 01:12:43.000
the year he had the stuff. It was just a
1424
01:12:43.039 --> 01:12:47.239
matter of the poor command and control, and so far
1425
01:12:47.479 --> 01:12:50.479
controls looked amazing this year compared to what he did
1426
01:12:50.520 --> 01:12:53.680
in college. Never had a walk rate under ten percent
1427
01:12:53.720 --> 01:12:56.039
in college. Six point one on the season so far
1428
01:12:56.119 --> 01:12:59.239
this year. Really awesome to see how you mentioned the
1429
01:12:59.279 --> 01:13:01.840
couple blow ups early in the year impacting the stat
1430
01:13:01.840 --> 01:13:04.800
line through his last six outings two point two two
1431
01:13:04.800 --> 01:13:07.640
ERA thirty one point two percent strike out rate, eight
1432
01:13:07.680 --> 01:13:11.479
percent walk rate. The whip is higher than you want
1433
01:13:11.520 --> 01:13:13.199
to see, one point four to five, but he's also
1434
01:13:13.239 --> 01:13:16.000
have a near four hundred babbit, so that's gonna come down.
1435
01:13:16.039 --> 01:13:18.439
He's had some bad bat ball luck. The one thing
1436
01:13:18.479 --> 01:13:21.479
I will note is that he's got three games this
1437
01:13:21.520 --> 01:13:24.760
year where he's given up multi home runs, So maybe
1438
01:13:24.760 --> 01:13:27.920
there's still some command concerns every so often where he's
1439
01:13:28.039 --> 01:13:33.000
just getting hammered missing his spots. But it's three out
1440
01:13:33.000 --> 01:13:35.520
of twelve outings with multi home runs, and then he's
1441
01:13:35.560 --> 01:13:37.359
got eight out of twelve with no home runs at all.
1442
01:13:37.399 --> 01:13:39.760
So I don't think home runs are necessarily going to
1443
01:13:39.840 --> 01:13:42.880
be a huge issue for him going forward. I think
1444
01:13:42.880 --> 01:13:44.560
it's just something to monitor that I think he might
1445
01:13:44.600 --> 01:13:47.720
have these blow ups every so often. He's undersized, but
1446
01:13:47.760 --> 01:13:51.359
he does have some deception. I've seen comparisons to Johnny
1447
01:13:51.439 --> 01:13:55.239
Quato or a Nesta Cortes. Those guys can have success
1448
01:13:55.279 --> 01:13:58.920
being shorter, but Curley also has really good stuff paired
1449
01:13:58.960 --> 01:14:02.199
with that with the really good fastball. So we'll see
1450
01:14:02.960 --> 01:14:05.680
this what this looks like when he gets to Double A, which,
1451
01:14:05.680 --> 01:14:08.479
as I mentioned am Mario, the Double A affiliate of
1452
01:14:08.560 --> 01:14:11.680
the Diamondbacks, is a really tough place to pitch. It's
1453
01:14:11.760 --> 01:14:14.439
a very small ballpark. Balls fly out of there. We'll
1454
01:14:14.479 --> 01:14:16.600
have to monitor those home runs. But I think Curley's
1455
01:14:16.600 --> 01:14:18.840
a big, up arrow guy. I agree with you. I
1456
01:14:18.840 --> 01:14:20.680
think he's a pickup in leagues of two to fifty plus,
1457
01:14:20.720 --> 01:14:22.800
and I feel his last start wasn't the best, but
1458
01:14:22.880 --> 01:14:25.319
he's even then struck out eight and I think if
1459
01:14:25.359 --> 01:14:28.640
he can put string together some really good starts and
1460
01:14:28.680 --> 01:14:32.079
then potentially get that promotion, I think we will see
1461
01:14:32.119 --> 01:14:34.439
him rising up a lot of lists, and the stocks
1462
01:14:34.439 --> 01:14:36.560
already increase, and I could see it increasing quite a
1463
01:14:36.560 --> 01:14:36.960
bit more.
1464
01:14:37.640 --> 01:14:40.359
Yeah, it sounds like we are in agreement on Curly then,
1465
01:14:40.439 --> 01:14:43.199
and I think we are in agreement on basically everybody
1466
01:14:43.239 --> 01:14:46.359
in this episode. Which rarely happens. So we're gonna get
1467
01:14:46.399 --> 01:14:48.479
into the rankings here in Taylor. While I usually get
1468
01:14:48.479 --> 01:14:50.520
you to go first, I'm gonna go first this time,
1469
01:14:50.560 --> 01:14:52.359
and then I'm gonna let you let me know if
1470
01:14:52.359 --> 01:14:54.600
you've got any disagreements here. But I think we're gonna
1471
01:14:54.600 --> 01:14:57.399
be pretty much in lockstep here. I've got Brian Curley
1472
01:14:57.479 --> 01:15:00.439
at number one. I think he's the easy number one here.
1473
01:15:00.800 --> 01:15:03.479
I think the conversation gets a little bit more interesting
1474
01:15:03.560 --> 01:15:06.520
after that, especially between two and three. But I've got
1475
01:15:06.600 --> 01:15:10.279
Leander's Matos at two because I think there's more upside there.
1476
01:15:10.359 --> 01:15:12.640
I've got One Martinez at three, and then I've got
1477
01:15:13.000 --> 01:15:16.520
Jayden low Ray at four. How would you rank these guys? Though, Taylor,
1478
01:15:17.640 --> 01:15:22.079
exactly the same. You echoed everything I was gonna say. Yeah,
1479
01:15:22.119 --> 01:15:24.880
I think this was as far as our rankings have
1480
01:15:25.000 --> 01:15:27.279
gone throughout this season here. This was probably the most
1481
01:15:27.319 --> 01:15:30.239
cut and dry we've had all year, despite I think
1482
01:15:30.319 --> 01:15:33.119
having a pretty tight group where we'd put everybody within
1483
01:15:33.199 --> 01:15:35.159
maybe fifty to two hundred spots.
1484
01:15:34.840 --> 01:15:37.039
Of each other. Yeah, exactly.
1485
01:15:38.079 --> 01:15:40.760
All right, that is everything we have for you all today.
1486
01:15:41.039 --> 01:15:44.000
Thank you for joining us. If you enjoyed this podcast,
1487
01:15:44.039 --> 01:15:46.119
please give us a rate and review and give us
1488
01:15:46.119 --> 01:15:48.520
a follow while you are at it. You can find
1489
01:15:48.520 --> 01:15:51.760
me at Sunny Underscore one eight on X and Sonny
1490
01:15:51.760 --> 01:15:53.960
one O eight on Blue Sky, and you can find
1491
01:15:53.960 --> 01:15:57.079
Taylor at Dynasty Pickups on both. You can also get
1492
01:15:57.079 --> 01:15:59.319
a hold of us with all of your Dynasty Baseball
1493
01:15:59.439 --> 01:16:03.279
questions at Dynasty Baseball Pickups at gmail dot com. All
1494
01:16:03.319 --> 01:16:05.720
of that contact info will be posted in the show
1495
01:16:05.720 --> 01:16:09.159
notes as well, and as always, please consider subscribing to
1496
01:16:09.199 --> 01:16:11.760
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1497
01:16:11.800 --> 01:16:15.239
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1498
01:16:15.279 --> 01:16:18.600
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1499
01:16:18.640 --> 01:16:19.199
for listening.
1500
01:16:19.479 --> 01:16:20.439
We'll see you next time.