There MIGHT Be Some Hope Left for GOP in the Midterms

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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Less than 30 days remain before the midterm elections,
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and it is possible there are
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a few rays of sunshine
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for the Republicans.
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We can dig into the silver linings on the clouds here in just a moment,
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but there's some things to point to.
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Senator Angela Paxton,
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she's a state senator here in Texas,
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she has a new political ad out there.
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It might
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give us some information on how
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the Texas race is going and the messaging strategy from the GOP,
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uh,
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on the Ken Paxton
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race,
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that's her ex-husband,
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plus what's happening
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in politics in the bayou.
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We have a new
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candidate countdown coming your way from Louisiana.
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All of that and more coming up tonight on Predictable with Stu.
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All right,
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here we go.
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We've got a big show for you today.
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I wanna tell you if you're just getting into prediction markets,
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you're interested in them,
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we have a new
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video out at predictable101.com.
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There are 5 videos there.
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They're like 3 minutes in length to kind of
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get you to the very basics of prediction markets
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and all sorts of other information there.
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If you're just getting started,
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great place to go
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to check it out.
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We'll try to,
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of course,
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explain as much as we can here on the main program as well.
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Uh,
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and we have,
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of course,
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the predictable midterm consensus,
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the PMC.
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It's our election model
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that I built.
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It's got,
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uh,
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basically measures kind of every election input you can possibly imagine.
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Um,
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and if you look at it,
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there are,
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I try to pull 5 points out of every update.
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Um,
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so we just updated on October 3rd.
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There's kind of five points,
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little write-ups
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there at the top of that piece.
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It's at predictableShow.com,
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and then you get all the numbers.
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If you go down and scroll down a little bit,
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you'll see,
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uh,
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right now,
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uh,
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it's not so good in the House,
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88.1% chance for
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Republicans to win the House,
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62.7% chance for Democrats to win
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the Senate.
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Uh,
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that is where that,
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uh,
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goes right now.
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I see,
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I don't know if I said that right,
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but anyway,
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yeah,
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Democrats are favored of both.
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That's not a huge surprise if
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you're following this stuff relatively collectively,
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correct,
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uh,
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or closely on the election stuff.
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Um,
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I will say,
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um,
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that's a great tool for you,
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the PMC available at predictableShow.com.
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Our friends over at Blaze Media,
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by the way,
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have just developed a new tool of their own for the elections.
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This is really cool.
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This is,
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uh,
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the,
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uh,
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poll Watch 2026 midterms.
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They are,
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uh,
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kind of outlining every single poll
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and
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putting that all together for you.
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If you are a Blaze Media,
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uh.
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TV subscriber,
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you get access to this.
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There's just like,
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I mean,
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legitimately like I think thousands of polls
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they've put into the system,
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really easy ways to understand
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the election as well,
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kind of an additional thing
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on top of it if you're a Blaze TV subscriber,
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you get both,
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uh,
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so that's pretty cool,
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um,
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over on,
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uh,
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on,
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on,
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uh,
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that particular,
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uh,
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program.
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It's blazetv.com.
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OK,
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um,
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29 days till the midterms.
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Early voting is happening now already in 9 states,
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so this election's already started.
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Uh,
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you know,
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you're looking at,
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uh,
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what,
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almost 8 or 18% of the,
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uh,
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states are already voting.
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Um,
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more coming up this week,
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October 5th,
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California,
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Montana,
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and,
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uh,
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what's today's date?
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I have no idea.
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What's today's date?
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Anyone know?
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The 5th.
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0,
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today's the 5th.
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OK,
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today is California,
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Montana,
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and Nebraska.
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I am in like election haze right now.
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I,
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all I'm thinking about is the elections all the time.
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My wife is like,
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oh,
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did you hear this huge news story that everyone's talking about?
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No,
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I didn't.
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Does it,
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does it affect the election?
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No,
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that I didn't hear about it.
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Uh,
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October 6th,
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Indiana,
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New Mexico,
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Ohio,
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Wyoming,
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October 7th in Arizona,
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and then next week at Georgia,
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Idaho,
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and more
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on the way.
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And a lot of people ask me all the time,
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is it time to panic?
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And the answer to that quite clearly is no.
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Why?
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Because panic day is October 19th.
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We're all going to panic on October 19th if these polls
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and,
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uh,
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this information doesn't.
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Is that a giant meteor about to hit a giant red elephant that's larger than the entire
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Washington DC area?
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That's,
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I would be more scared honestly of the elephant.
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Uh,
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well,
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I guess the,
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the meteor would be bad too.
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But,
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uh,
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October 19th,
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we,
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we came up with this date
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because
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people were asking me all the time,
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is it time to panic?
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And,
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you know,
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look,
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it is it time to worry?
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Is it time to be concerned?
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If you're thinking about,
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I don't know,
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should I get involved in this election?
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Am I,
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should I make some extra phone calls?
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Like,
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what should I do?
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That we're beyond that day.
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Get involved if you want your candidates to win.
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This is real.
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I know it sometimes it feels like the polls say the,
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uh,
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the same thing every single time and they,
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they wind up being wrong.
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I get that.
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I know that's how a lot of people feel.
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That doesn't mean,
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uh,
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number one,
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that it's been true in every election.
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We have seen some mistakes,
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uh,
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typically when Donald Trump has been running.
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He's not running this time.
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The midterm elections during the Trump era actually have done
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a pretty good job at measuring uh the Democratic support,
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including in 2018 when Democrats had a really good year.
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So it is important to,
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I mean,
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I think it's important to get all this information so you know what it is.
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Whether you care or not.
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Um,
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so that's,
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that's there,
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and I will say that like,
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when it comes to prediction markets,
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I'm looking at this and saying,
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OK,
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if these,
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if we don't get a change in information over the next couple of weeks,
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what my panic is going to be,
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and by the way,
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I don't really consider this panic,
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I consider it preparedness.
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There may be positions that I trim that I currently hold,
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um,
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there may be positions that I pick up more on
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that go the opposite way of,
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you know,
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where I was.
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I may switch sides on some of these.
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That's all OK.
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When you're trading prediction markets,
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it's important to,
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to not only be comfortable with the position,
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uh,
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the size of the position that you have,
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but also the side of the position that you have.
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Um,
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you know,
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if you pick a side and you start growing it and growing and growing it,
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and not blindly,
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or sort of blindly looking at this information
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without,
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you know,
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uh,
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without really considering whether you're positioned correctly in a,
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in a,
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in a,
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in a particular election,
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it's likely you'll get burned.
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Now,
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I've gone through a lot,
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I've gone over a decade of elections.
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I've never been burned like that.
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I,
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I'm,
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I will say unlike other elections,
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I'm concerned about it this time
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because the data does show
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that
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catastrophic results for Republicans is possible.
294
00:05:48.100 --> 00:05:48.950
They're possible.
295
00:05:49.299 --> 00:05:50.260
Doesn't mean they're likely,
296
00:05:50.519 --> 00:05:51.720
doesn't mean they're definitely gonna happen.
297
00:05:52.299 --> 00:05:52.899
The media right now,
298
00:05:52.980 --> 00:05:53.839
I would say is in,
299
00:05:53.940 --> 00:05:54.730
oh my gosh,
300
00:05:54.779 --> 00:05:56.019
it's time to get the,
301
00:05:56.140 --> 00:05:58.850
the Hillary Clinton party hats back out and celebrate,
302
00:05:58.859 --> 00:06:00.480
and like I just don't think you should be there.
303
00:06:01.309 --> 00:06:01.950
That being said,
304
00:06:02.029 --> 00:06:03.390
there are real risks in this election.
305
00:06:03.459 --> 00:06:05.109
We're gonna go through them a lot this week and
306
00:06:05.109 --> 00:06:07.209
we're gonna look at where we should be positioning ourselves
307
00:06:07.549 --> 00:06:07.859
in these.
308
00:06:07.950 --> 00:06:09.220
Are there safe places?
309
00:06:09.470 --> 00:06:11.750
We're gonna tell you about one of those coming up in the show as well.
310
00:06:11.850 --> 00:06:13.980
I wanna tell you about this New York Times poll that came out.
311
00:06:14.269 --> 00:06:14.339
Now,
312
00:06:14.390 --> 00:06:14.750
just so you know,
313
00:06:14.850 --> 00:06:15.579
the New York Times,
314
00:06:15.790 --> 00:06:15.910
you know,
315
00:06:15.950 --> 00:06:16.109
it's,
316
00:06:16.149 --> 00:06:17.170
it's the paper of record.
317
00:06:18.179 --> 00:06:19.220
You might look at the New York Times and say,
318
00:06:19.299 --> 00:06:19.459
gosh,
319
00:06:19.500 --> 00:06:22.320
it's this annoying liberal source that is wrong all the time.
320
00:06:22.579 --> 00:06:23.709
There's a lot to that,
321
00:06:23.899 --> 00:06:25.899
and we point that stuff out all the time.
322
00:06:26.019 --> 00:06:27.859
We've talked about their coverage over and over again in
323
00:06:27.859 --> 00:06:29.890
this election where I think they've gotten things wrong.
324
00:06:30.299 --> 00:06:32.679
Their data department is better than the news department
325
00:06:32.859 --> 00:06:34.309
by a significant margin.
326
00:06:34.619 --> 00:06:34.899
Um,
327
00:06:35.019 --> 00:06:36.679
and the New York Times Sienna poll
328
00:06:36.779 --> 00:06:38.140
is generally,
329
00:06:38.220 --> 00:06:38.350
uh,
330
00:06:38.380 --> 00:06:40.239
thought of as a really good poll.
331
00:06:40.540 --> 00:06:41.000
Um,
332
00:06:41.660 --> 00:06:42.339
it doesn't mean it,
333
00:06:42.420 --> 00:06:43.440
it's right all the time.
334
00:06:43.809 --> 00:06:43.940
Uh,
335
00:06:44.010 --> 00:06:46.000
that doesn't mean you can't find examples of it being wrong,
336
00:06:46.420 --> 00:06:48.359
but a lot of this has to do with process,
337
00:06:48.420 --> 00:06:48.619
and,
338
00:06:48.700 --> 00:06:48.859
you know,
339
00:06:48.980 --> 00:06:49.640
one of the things,
340
00:06:49.899 --> 00:06:51.859
it's really boring what I'm about to tell you to do,
341
00:06:51.940 --> 00:06:52.239
but,
342
00:06:52.540 --> 00:06:52.679
uh,
343
00:06:52.690 --> 00:06:54.820
one of the things that's helpful in understanding this stuff is
344
00:06:54.820 --> 00:06:57.480
listen to just the people who designed these polls talk about it
345
00:06:57.660 --> 00:06:59.100
for hours and hours and hours on end.
346
00:06:59.279 --> 00:06:59.380
Now,
347
00:06:59.420 --> 00:07:00.519
do I want you to do that?
348
00:07:01.250 --> 00:07:01.700
Probably not,
349
00:07:01.820 --> 00:07:02.130
cause it would,
350
00:07:02.220 --> 00:07:02.380
it would,
351
00:07:02.459 --> 00:07:03.250
you'd be very bored,
352
00:07:03.329 --> 00:07:03.619
but
353
00:07:04.149 --> 00:07:05.540
You realize that these guys are,
354
00:07:05.859 --> 00:07:06.000
I,
355
00:07:06.049 --> 00:07:08.869
I'm not saying there aren't people who are just fraudulently making up polls.
356
00:07:08.920 --> 00:07:10.000
We know that's happened.
357
00:07:10.079 --> 00:07:11.000
We know that does happen.
358
00:07:11.079 --> 00:07:14.920
We know that campaigns release polls all the time that are skewed in their favor,
359
00:07:15.239 --> 00:07:15.429
uh,
360
00:07:15.440 --> 00:07:16.500
in one way or another.
361
00:07:17.670 --> 00:07:19.850
But when you listen to these polling experts look at the,
362
00:07:19.950 --> 00:07:20.149
think,
363
00:07:20.390 --> 00:07:20.750
you know,
364
00:07:21.109 --> 00:07:23.859
talk through how they're dealing with the fact that
365
00:07:23.859 --> 00:07:25.450
they can't get anybody on the phone anymore.
366
00:07:25.869 --> 00:07:26.970
The fact that they've,
367
00:07:27.149 --> 00:07:29.010
they know they've underestimated
368
00:07:29.510 --> 00:07:30.369
Republican voters
369
00:07:30.510 --> 00:07:32.369
in multiple elections recently,
370
00:07:32.549 --> 00:07:33.690
how are they dealing with that?
371
00:07:33.980 --> 00:07:34.529
Um,
372
00:07:35.429 --> 00:07:36.450
you can hear them,
373
00:07:36.670 --> 00:07:38.149
they're really trying to get this stuff right.
374
00:07:38.529 --> 00:07:38.850
Um,
375
00:07:38.940 --> 00:07:39.649
not everybody,
376
00:07:39.940 --> 00:07:40.739
but they are trying.
377
00:07:40.859 --> 00:07:42.000
I think the New York Times,
378
00:07:42.190 --> 00:07:42.600
um,
379
00:07:42.779 --> 00:07:44.239
tries to get this right
380
00:07:44.500 --> 00:07:45.450
when with their polling,
381
00:07:45.540 --> 00:07:45.660
uh,
382
00:07:45.700 --> 00:07:47.200
they do go pretty deep.
383
00:07:47.459 --> 00:07:48.579
That doesn't mean that they're,
384
00:07:48.660 --> 00:07:49.769
the judgments that they're making,
385
00:07:49.820 --> 00:07:51.440
and there are a lot of judgment calls
386
00:07:51.779 --> 00:07:52.220
in this,
387
00:07:52.309 --> 00:07:52.649
uh,
388
00:07:52.739 --> 00:07:53.480
scenario,
389
00:07:53.940 --> 00:07:54.059
uh,
390
00:07:54.130 --> 00:07:55.609
it doesn't mean those judgment calls are right.
391
00:07:55.940 --> 00:07:56.380
So
392
00:07:56.500 --> 00:07:58.570
that's all the grain of salt I want you to take here as we go with this.
393
00:07:58.579 --> 00:08:01.130
Senate races in Republican states tilt toward Democrats,
394
00:08:01.250 --> 00:08:02.059
polls fine.
395
00:08:02.970 --> 00:08:03.570
Now,
396
00:08:04.140 --> 00:08:08.170
I found this to be interesting because they went through the 5
397
00:08:08.730 --> 00:08:10.510
most important states
398
00:08:11.010 --> 00:08:12.649
for Democrats to take the Senate.
399
00:08:12.769 --> 00:08:14.010
That was kind of the polling that they did.
400
00:08:14.089 --> 00:08:15.399
So it's not a nationwide poll,
401
00:08:15.570 --> 00:08:16.609
it's not a poll of every race,
402
00:08:16.690 --> 00:08:18.100
it's not a poll of every important race,
403
00:08:18.170 --> 00:08:19.750
it's just a poll of the 5 most
404
00:08:19.970 --> 00:08:22.450
crucial states for Democrats to consider,
405
00:08:22.529 --> 00:08:22.730
you know,
406
00:08:22.890 --> 00:08:23.589
trying to win
407
00:08:23.970 --> 00:08:25.029
here in this particular,
408
00:08:25.109 --> 00:08:25.459
uh,
409
00:08:25.570 --> 00:08:25.649
situation.
410
00:08:25.679 --> 00:08:26.989
And if you look at this and think,
411
00:08:27.290 --> 00:08:27.709
well,
412
00:08:28.019 --> 00:08:28.429
Um,
413
00:08:28.510 --> 00:08:30.690
and the way that the reason why they came up with these states quickly
414
00:08:30.959 --> 00:08:32.429
is North Carolina is,
415
00:08:32.549 --> 00:08:34.289
and I said this weeks and weeks and weeks ago,
416
00:08:34.630 --> 00:08:35.630
looking like a lost cause.
417
00:08:35.729 --> 00:08:38.390
North Carolina is a Republican-held seat that is
418
00:08:38.390 --> 00:08:40.010
almost definitely going to go to Democrats.
419
00:08:40.229 --> 00:08:42.070
They've got a candidate there that's very popular in the state,
420
00:08:42.140 --> 00:08:42.808
Roy Cooper.
421
00:08:43.030 --> 00:08:43.130
Uh,
422
00:08:43.190 --> 00:08:45.210
it's a state that I've had money on for a while,
423
00:08:45.349 --> 00:08:46.869
I'm up considerably in it.
424
00:08:47.229 --> 00:08:47.429
Uh,
425
00:08:47.549 --> 00:08:47.809
and,
426
00:08:47.909 --> 00:08:47.989
uh,
427
00:08:48.030 --> 00:08:49.710
I don't know if there's much left there.
428
00:08:49.979 --> 00:08:50.239
Frankly,
429
00:08:50.309 --> 00:08:51.729
there might be a few points of profit,
430
00:08:51.940 --> 00:08:52.070
uh,
431
00:08:52.150 --> 00:08:54.289
but I do think that Cooper will win that race,
432
00:08:54.630 --> 00:08:55.909
giving the Democrats one pickup.
433
00:08:56.000 --> 00:08:57.070
They need 4 pickups,
434
00:08:57.349 --> 00:08:58.780
assuming they hold all their states,
435
00:08:58.789 --> 00:09:00.469
and that does include things like Maine,
436
00:09:00.789 --> 00:09:01.900
which is gonna be really hard for,
437
00:09:02.020 --> 00:09:02.390
or excuse me,
438
00:09:02.440 --> 00:09:02.750
not Maine,
439
00:09:02.830 --> 00:09:03.109
um,
440
00:09:03.229 --> 00:09:04.260
uh,
441
00:09:04.320 --> 00:09:04.419
uh,
442
00:09:04.429 --> 00:09:04.859
Michigan,
443
00:09:05.109 --> 00:09:05.390
which is,
444
00:09:05.469 --> 00:09:05.590
you know,
445
00:09:05.710 --> 00:09:06.669
gonna be hard for them to hold.
446
00:09:06.710 --> 00:09:07.659
It's a close race.
447
00:09:07.869 --> 00:09:10.030
Here are the 5 states that they identified as really
448
00:09:10.030 --> 00:09:12.450
important for Democrats that they need to win 3 of
449
00:09:12.750 --> 00:09:13.150
Texas,
450
00:09:13.270 --> 00:09:13.789
Alaska,
451
00:09:13.940 --> 00:09:14.580
Ohio,
452
00:09:14.789 --> 00:09:15.409
Iowa,
453
00:09:15.669 --> 00:09:16.080
and
454
00:09:16.820 --> 00:09:17.340
Believe it or not,
455
00:09:17.500 --> 00:09:18.320
Kansas,
456
00:09:18.669 --> 00:09:20.429
the fact that we're talking about Kansas as a,
457
00:09:20.739 --> 00:09:20.820
uh,
458
00:09:20.859 --> 00:09:22.380
a 50/50 race is amazing.
459
00:09:22.539 --> 00:09:23.340
But here's what we're talking about.
460
00:09:23.390 --> 00:09:25.799
Let me give you the overall control here of what,
461
00:09:25.940 --> 00:09:26.780
this is what the,
462
00:09:26.940 --> 00:09:28.650
and we're just gonna believe these polls for a second,
463
00:09:28.940 --> 00:09:30.020
not ask questions about them.
464
00:09:30.140 --> 00:09:31.859
This is the result that they came up with.
465
00:09:31.929 --> 00:09:32.460
In Texas,
466
00:09:32.539 --> 00:09:34.719
they have Tallarico up over Paxton by
467
00:09:34.940 --> 00:09:35.820
6 points,
468
00:09:36.039 --> 00:09:37.780
51 to 45.
469
00:09:37.929 --> 00:09:38.539
In Alaska,
470
00:09:38.619 --> 00:09:39.159
it's even
471
00:09:39.419 --> 00:09:40.000
wider.
472
00:09:40.380 --> 00:09:43.020
Alaska has Mary Peltola at 50.
473
00:09:43.409 --> 00:09:45.169
And Sullivan at 43,
474
00:09:45.250 --> 00:09:46.000
a 7-point
475
00:09:46.289 --> 00:09:46.859
difference.
476
00:09:47.090 --> 00:09:48.030
In Ohio,
477
00:09:48.369 --> 00:09:50.859
Brown has the lead 49 to 46 over Houste.
478
00:09:51.489 --> 00:09:52.049
In Iowa,
479
00:09:52.159 --> 00:09:52.609
the one,
480
00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:54.640
bright spot here in this polling,
481
00:09:54.929 --> 00:09:55.090
uh,
482
00:09:55.250 --> 00:09:55.609
for,
483
00:09:55.729 --> 00:09:57.080
and it's a very small bright spot,
484
00:09:57.130 --> 00:10:00.049
but Ashley Hinson up 48 to 47
485
00:10:00.169 --> 00:10:00.979
over Josh Turrick.
486
00:10:01.409 --> 00:10:01.830
And then,
487
00:10:02.010 --> 00:10:02.210
uh,
488
00:10:02.320 --> 00:10:03.320
in Kansas,
489
00:10:03.530 --> 00:10:05.809
a 45-45 tie.
490
00:10:06.219 --> 00:10:07.440
Between Hamilton
491
00:10:07.619 --> 00:10:09.119
and Marshall in a state
492
00:10:09.580 --> 00:10:10.260
that has not
493
00:10:10.419 --> 00:10:12.119
listed a Democratic senator
494
00:10:12.380 --> 00:10:14.880
in almost 100 years.
495
00:10:15.849 --> 00:10:17.869
We've got a 4545 race
496
00:10:18.169 --> 00:10:18.729
going on.
497
00:10:19.469 --> 00:10:19.799
Um,
498
00:10:19.880 --> 00:10:20.500
I wanna break that,
499
00:10:20.520 --> 00:10:21.599
those polls down here in a second,
500
00:10:21.679 --> 00:10:23.479
but let me give you the predictable Senate board first.
501
00:10:23.590 --> 00:10:23.830
This is,
502
00:10:23.880 --> 00:10:24.119
by the way,
503
00:10:24.190 --> 00:10:25.619
a free tool available to you
504
00:10:25.799 --> 00:10:27.659
at predictableshow.com.
505
00:10:27.840 --> 00:10:28.840
You can kind of take the predictions,
506
00:10:28.900 --> 00:10:29.700
you can move these around,
507
00:10:29.750 --> 00:10:30.919
you can see where control goes.
508
00:10:30.989 --> 00:10:31.500
You can send,
509
00:10:31.869 --> 00:10:32.070
uh,
510
00:10:32.080 --> 00:10:32.549
this to your friends.
511
00:10:32.590 --> 00:10:34.500
There's a share feature we just added.
512
00:10:34.599 --> 00:10:35.599
You can share your board.
513
00:10:35.830 --> 00:10:36.679
This is the board the last time.
514
00:10:36.825 --> 00:10:37.604
I updated it,
515
00:10:37.655 --> 00:10:39.034
which does need an update at this point.
516
00:10:39.375 --> 00:10:39.534
Um,
517
00:10:39.565 --> 00:10:41.094
click over to your board if we could here,
518
00:10:41.195 --> 00:10:41.455
Adam,
519
00:10:41.565 --> 00:10:44.525
and we're gonna drag this around to what the New York Times thinks is happening.
520
00:10:44.835 --> 00:10:45.534
Minnesota,
521
00:10:45.734 --> 00:10:45.934
uh,
522
00:10:46.015 --> 00:10:46.854
Alaska,
523
00:10:46.974 --> 00:10:48.945
and Ohio would be in the lean Democrat.
524
00:10:49.284 --> 00:10:51.554
Michigan would go to the lean Democrat as well
525
00:10:51.934 --> 00:10:53.354
in this particular situation,
526
00:10:53.684 --> 00:10:54.184
Adam.
527
00:10:54.534 --> 00:10:55.094
Um,
528
00:10:55.215 --> 00:10:55.695
there we go.
529
00:10:55.775 --> 00:10:56.075
And then,
530
00:10:56.135 --> 00:10:56.284
uh,
531
00:10:56.294 --> 00:10:57.284
Iowa would stay there,
532
00:10:57.455 --> 00:10:57.955
Texas,
533
00:10:57.974 --> 00:10:58.234
and,
534
00:10:58.385 --> 00:10:58.645
uh,
535
00:10:58.655 --> 00:11:00.674
Texas would move over to the lean Democrat.
536
00:11:01.799 --> 00:11:03.400
Kansas would move to the toss-up.
537
00:11:04.299 --> 00:11:04.530
Uh,
538
00:11:04.619 --> 00:11:07.739
and that is basically where the New York Times has it right now.
539
00:11:07.859 --> 00:11:07.979
Now,
540
00:11:08.099 --> 00:11:08.380
Maine,
541
00:11:08.500 --> 00:11:09.520
they did not poll
542
00:11:09.700 --> 00:11:09.969
here,
543
00:11:10.140 --> 00:11:10.739
so like,
544
00:11:10.820 --> 00:11:11.289
you know,
545
00:11:11.859 --> 00:11:12.580
they did poll Maine,
546
00:11:12.650 --> 00:11:13.140
didn't they?
547
00:11:13.340 --> 00:11:13.619
I did,
548
00:11:13.700 --> 00:11:14.500
they did pull Maine and,
549
00:11:14.580 --> 00:11:16.000
and Collins was actually ahead in that race.
550
00:11:16.419 --> 00:11:16.880
So move,
551
00:11:16.940 --> 00:11:17.369
uh,
552
00:11:17.539 --> 00:11:19.880
Collins over in Maine over to the lean Republican.
553
00:11:20.354 --> 00:11:21.215
for this exercise
554
00:11:21.554 --> 00:11:23.515
and give me that total at the top so we can see what it is
555
00:11:23.755 --> 00:11:24.275
right there.
556
00:11:24.474 --> 00:11:24.594
Uh,
557
00:11:24.674 --> 00:11:27.304
if the Times polling plays out exactly as they,
558
00:11:27.674 --> 00:11:28.075
you know,
559
00:11:28.354 --> 00:11:29.974
predicted here or their poll,
560
00:11:30.195 --> 00:11:30.465
uh,
561
00:11:30.474 --> 00:11:31.395
seemed to lean,
562
00:11:31.924 --> 00:11:32.934
which of course won't happen,
563
00:11:33.114 --> 00:11:33.635
but if it did,
564
00:11:33.715 --> 00:11:35.895
it would be 51-48 with a tie in Kansas.
565
00:11:36.460 --> 00:11:38.260
Even if you give that one to Republicans,
566
00:11:38.729 --> 00:11:40.599
Democrats take control of the House
567
00:11:40.820 --> 00:11:42.559
and the Senate in that scenario
568
00:11:42.780 --> 00:11:43.130
and,
569
00:11:43.140 --> 00:11:43.530
uh,
570
00:11:43.539 --> 00:11:44.190
likely are,
571
00:11:44.260 --> 00:11:45.010
are going to,
572
00:11:45.020 --> 00:11:45.489
uh,
573
00:11:45.539 --> 00:11:47.239
do all sorts of interesting things with that power.
574
00:11:47.659 --> 00:11:49.020
They have subpoena power in the House,
575
00:11:49.140 --> 00:11:50.099
that will be interesting.
576
00:11:50.539 --> 00:11:51.070
Uh,
577
00:11:51.349 --> 00:11:52.179
they will have,
578
00:11:52.349 --> 00:11:52.539
uh,
579
00:11:52.549 --> 00:11:53.250
power in the Senate,
580
00:11:53.309 --> 00:11:53.419
uh,
581
00:11:53.469 --> 00:11:54.010
not only,
582
00:11:54.059 --> 00:11:54.250
uh,
583
00:11:54.270 --> 00:11:54.729
for
584
00:11:54.880 --> 00:11:55.869
all sorts of different,
585
00:11:55.909 --> 00:11:56.099
uh,
586
00:11:56.109 --> 00:11:57.549
things including investigations and such,
587
00:11:57.630 --> 00:11:58.289
but also
588
00:11:58.700 --> 00:11:59.150
importantly,
589
00:11:59.349 --> 00:12:00.309
Supreme Court nominees,
590
00:12:00.530 --> 00:12:00.679
right?
591
00:12:00.789 --> 00:12:01.109
They can,
592
00:12:01.229 --> 00:12:04.330
they can say no to any of Trump's Supreme Court nominees should one,
593
00:12:04.950 --> 00:12:06.169
retire or.
594
00:12:06.570 --> 00:12:06.739
Uh,
595
00:12:06.820 --> 00:12:08.799
have a health issue or God knows what else.
596
00:12:09.059 --> 00:12:09.219
Uh,
597
00:12:09.340 --> 00:12:12.250
so it will be interesting if the Democrats take the Senate.
598
00:12:12.580 --> 00:12:13.400
Do we see
599
00:12:13.700 --> 00:12:14.440
most likely
600
00:12:14.739 --> 00:12:15.669
either Alito
601
00:12:15.820 --> 00:12:16.719
or Thomas
602
00:12:16.979 --> 00:12:18.159
decide they wanna retire
603
00:12:18.260 --> 00:12:19.719
and name a new justice
604
00:12:20.219 --> 00:12:20.520
before
605
00:12:20.900 --> 00:12:21.979
the Senate turns over.
606
00:12:22.299 --> 00:12:22.979
That will be a.
607
00:12:23.215 --> 00:12:23.924
Massive discussion
608
00:12:24.224 --> 00:12:25.945
that we will have and like people keep asking me like,
609
00:12:26.005 --> 00:12:26.065
well,
610
00:12:26.135 --> 00:12:27.984
what's gonna happen after the election with your show?
611
00:12:28.184 --> 00:12:28.265
Well,
612
00:12:28.354 --> 00:12:29.784
obviously right now we're talking a lot about
613
00:12:29.784 --> 00:12:31.174
the election cause there's a month left,
614
00:12:31.465 --> 00:12:31.705
right?
615
00:12:31.955 --> 00:12:32.544
And we've hit a lot,
616
00:12:32.614 --> 00:12:34.645
the election's always gonna be a lead issue
617
00:12:34.854 --> 00:12:35.715
of this program,
618
00:12:35.955 --> 00:12:37.684
but like there's a really good example,
619
00:12:37.744 --> 00:12:39.604
what's gonna happen with the Supreme Court.
620
00:12:40.349 --> 00:12:40.469
Uh,
621
00:12:41.030 --> 00:12:42.270
if in that two-month period,
622
00:12:42.390 --> 00:12:43.809
will Alito or Thomas,
623
00:12:43.840 --> 00:12:43.859
uh,
624
00:12:43.869 --> 00:12:44.539
retire,
625
00:12:44.789 --> 00:12:47.169
who would be named a successor in that scenario?
626
00:12:47.380 --> 00:12:47.630
Um,
627
00:12:47.909 --> 00:12:48.390
we have that,
628
00:12:48.469 --> 00:12:48.710
of course,
629
00:12:48.820 --> 00:12:50.909
there's all the other categories that we talk about often,
630
00:12:50.989 --> 00:12:52.419
sports and culture and,
631
00:12:52.429 --> 00:12:52.710
um,
632
00:12:52.830 --> 00:12:52.979
you know,
633
00:12:53.059 --> 00:12:54.010
all sorts of different things.
634
00:12:54.229 --> 00:12:55.309
But the Supreme Court is gonna be fast,
635
00:12:55.369 --> 00:12:57.250
and then we're gonna get into 2028 really quickly.
636
00:12:57.789 --> 00:12:57.869
Uh,
637
00:12:57.940 --> 00:12:59.219
if you remember in 20,
638
00:12:59.270 --> 00:13:01.450
after the 2020
639
00:13:01.710 --> 00:13:03.210
or 2022 midterms,
640
00:13:03.830 --> 00:13:05.270
Trump announced almost immediately.
641
00:13:05.969 --> 00:13:08.929
And I think that that is going to become a little bit more normal,
642
00:13:09.010 --> 00:13:10.840
those early announcements to get out in front.
643
00:13:11.010 --> 00:13:11.349
So,
644
00:13:11.450 --> 00:13:12.010
that's what's going on.
645
00:13:12.059 --> 00:13:13.969
Let me give you another couple of breakdowns of the poll.
646
00:13:14.049 --> 00:13:14.640
This is,
647
00:13:14.650 --> 00:13:14.869
again,
648
00:13:14.880 --> 00:13:15.909
from the New York Times,
649
00:13:16.250 --> 00:13:16.489
uh,
650
00:13:16.690 --> 00:13:17.450
looking at these issues,
651
00:13:17.520 --> 00:13:17.719
they're,
652
00:13:17.849 --> 00:13:18.039
I mean,
653
00:13:18.119 --> 00:13:18.469
look,
654
00:13:18.890 --> 00:13:19.570
I'll be honest with you,
655
00:13:19.770 --> 00:13:20.690
pretty catastrophic.
656
00:13:21.299 --> 00:13:22.460
In these 5 states,
657
00:13:22.780 --> 00:13:23.179
healthcare,
658
00:13:23.460 --> 00:13:24.619
Democrats always win the healthcare thing.
659
00:13:24.700 --> 00:13:25.440
I don't know why
660
00:13:25.859 --> 00:13:28.210
they do in every poll I've ever seen in my entire life,
661
00:13:28.780 --> 00:13:31.150
but even winning in states like Kansas here by 5,
662
00:13:31.340 --> 00:13:33.489
up to Iowa by 17 points,
663
00:13:33.539 --> 00:13:34.719
which is a really big number.
664
00:13:35.020 --> 00:13:35.140
Uh,
665
00:13:35.260 --> 00:13:36.000
tariffs,
666
00:13:36.289 --> 00:13:36.619
uh,
667
00:13:36.700 --> 00:13:36.900
you know,
668
00:13:37.020 --> 00:13:39.119
you've got 14 points in Alaska.
669
00:13:39.260 --> 00:13:39.369
Uh,
670
00:13:39.460 --> 00:13:41.059
Alaska hit hard by tariffs,
671
00:13:41.140 --> 00:13:42.020
Iowa 6,
672
00:13:42.340 --> 00:13:43.140
Kansas and Ohio,
673
00:13:43.340 --> 00:13:44.260
even for both parties,
674
00:13:44.419 --> 00:13:44.679
Texas,
675
00:13:44.739 --> 00:13:46.260
a 9 point margin for Democrats.
676
00:13:46.739 --> 00:13:48.010
Democrats lead in every single state.
677
00:13:48.969 --> 00:13:50.250
When it comes to cost of living,
678
00:13:50.320 --> 00:13:50.650
11,
679
00:13:50.770 --> 00:13:51.640
531,
680
00:13:51.650 --> 00:13:52.630
and 10 points,
681
00:13:52.890 --> 00:13:53.119
uh,
682
00:13:53.219 --> 00:13:55.140
doing what's best for ordinary people.
683
00:13:55.409 --> 00:13:56.729
Democrats lead all five states,
684
00:13:56.919 --> 00:13:58.030
8714,
685
00:13:58.039 --> 00:13:59.650
and 14 in Texas.
686
00:13:59.729 --> 00:14:00.530
That's a big 1.
687
00:14:00.809 --> 00:14:01.710
14 in Texas.
688
00:14:02.130 --> 00:14:03.030
Data centers,
689
00:14:03.239 --> 00:14:03.369
uh,
690
00:14:03.440 --> 00:14:04.520
544,
691
00:14:04.570 --> 00:14:05.039
11,
692
00:14:05.049 --> 00:14:06.969
and 8 are the Democratic leads there.
693
00:14:07.229 --> 00:14:09.609
A little bit more as we get toward the bottom of this chart.
694
00:14:10.280 --> 00:14:11.440
Of disagreement,
695
00:14:11.640 --> 00:14:12.099
as you see,
696
00:14:12.159 --> 00:14:13.460
being an effective senator
697
00:14:13.599 --> 00:14:15.770
is really more about candidate quality,
698
00:14:16.039 --> 00:14:16.380
um,
699
00:14:16.559 --> 00:14:16.840
you know,
700
00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:18.159
you see Alaska,
701
00:14:18.239 --> 00:14:18.400
uh,
702
00:14:18.440 --> 00:14:20.020
and Iowa about even
703
00:14:20.250 --> 00:14:23.520
Kansas actually favoring the Republican by a couple of points.
704
00:14:23.619 --> 00:14:23.780
Again,
705
00:14:24.039 --> 00:14:26.099
he's going against a complete novice
706
00:14:26.280 --> 00:14:27.780
who is a pastor at a church,
707
00:14:28.239 --> 00:14:28.750
um,
708
00:14:28.760 --> 00:14:28.960
there.
709
00:14:29.049 --> 00:14:29.650
With Hamilton,
710
00:14:29.690 --> 00:14:29.969
who,
711
00:14:30.130 --> 00:14:30.330
you know,
712
00:14:30.450 --> 00:14:31.869
I don't think certainly has no
713
00:14:32.419 --> 00:14:33.210
experience in this,
714
00:14:33.330 --> 00:14:34.409
in this field at all.
715
00:14:34.929 --> 00:14:37.250
Sometimes that can be good if you're in an anti-incumbent year,
716
00:14:37.369 --> 00:14:39.840
but when you're talking about building an being an effective senator,
717
00:14:39.890 --> 00:14:41.450
I don't think a lot of people even in Kansas that are
718
00:14:41.450 --> 00:14:43.700
voting for Hamilton think he's gonna know how to do the job.
719
00:14:43.969 --> 00:14:44.049
Uh,
720
00:14:44.119 --> 00:14:45.270
and then you have Ohio and Texas,
721
00:14:45.650 --> 00:14:45.849
uh,
722
00:14:45.969 --> 00:14:46.450
going the other way.
723
00:14:46.489 --> 00:14:47.340
You see Texas there,
724
00:14:47.409 --> 00:14:47.929
by the way.
725
00:14:48.260 --> 00:14:49.570
A 7 point margin
726
00:14:49.789 --> 00:14:51.130
for James Tallarico.
727
00:14:51.349 --> 00:14:51.789
Why?
728
00:14:51.909 --> 00:14:52.070
I mean,
729
00:14:52.179 --> 00:14:52.270
look,
730
00:14:52.390 --> 00:14:53.669
Paxson is just not popular.
731
00:14:53.869 --> 00:14:54.229
He's good,
732
00:14:54.309 --> 00:14:54.619
it's a,
733
00:14:54.880 --> 00:14:55.590
this is
734
00:14:55.750 --> 00:14:58.469
as tough as a situation as you can get for a Republican in the state.
735
00:14:58.710 --> 00:14:58.989
And then,
736
00:14:59.059 --> 00:14:59.150
uh,
737
00:14:59.190 --> 00:14:59.950
when it comes to immigration,
738
00:15:00.260 --> 00:15:00.989
Republicans still favored,
739
00:15:01.070 --> 00:15:01.549
but the,
740
00:15:01.630 --> 00:15:02.650
the margin is different.
741
00:15:02.909 --> 00:15:03.109
I mean,
742
00:15:03.229 --> 00:15:04.309
2 points in Alaska,
743
00:15:04.510 --> 00:15:05.390
6 in Iowa,
744
00:15:05.489 --> 00:15:06.429
2 in Kansas,
745
00:15:06.510 --> 00:15:07.090
3
746
00:15:07.270 --> 00:15:07.750
in Ohio,
747
00:15:07.830 --> 00:15:09.130
and amazingly,
748
00:15:09.390 --> 00:15:10.789
even in Texas.
749
00:15:11.179 --> 00:15:14.049
This again has to do with what is a perceived
750
00:15:14.229 --> 00:15:18.390
crackdown on uh immigration that has gone beyond what
751
00:15:18.710 --> 00:15:21.169
many people who voted for Donald Trump believed it would.
752
00:15:21.590 --> 00:15:22.090
Um,
753
00:15:22.830 --> 00:15:22.950
again,
754
00:15:23.070 --> 00:15:24.890
I think a lot of that has to do with
755
00:15:25.229 --> 00:15:28.590
messaging and a lot of that has to do with what was promoted and what wasn't,
756
00:15:28.789 --> 00:15:30.750
particularly in the early days of the Trump administration.
757
00:15:31.309 --> 00:15:31.710
Um,
758
00:15:31.830 --> 00:15:33.929
but that is a real concern for
759
00:15:34.270 --> 00:15:36.969
Texas in particular because you have a very large Hispanic population,
760
00:15:37.109 --> 00:15:37.260
which,
761
00:15:37.270 --> 00:15:37.650
by the way,
762
00:15:37.710 --> 00:15:38.789
I'll show you in these polls
763
00:15:38.989 --> 00:15:40.250
has really kind of turned
764
00:15:40.510 --> 00:15:41.049
on,
765
00:15:41.070 --> 00:15:41.299
uh,
766
00:15:41.309 --> 00:15:42.489
the president and his party.
767
00:15:42.869 --> 00:15:43.070
Uh,
768
00:15:43.150 --> 00:15:43.349
you know,
769
00:15:43.429 --> 00:15:45.500
this is a group of people who kind of switched.
770
00:15:45.739 --> 00:15:47.130
They were Democrats forever.
771
00:15:47.429 --> 00:15:48.969
They went to Republicans one time.
772
00:15:49.250 --> 00:15:49.700
Republicans were like,
773
00:15:49.789 --> 00:15:51.409
now they're gonna be here forever.
774
00:15:51.909 --> 00:15:52.669
Not the right thing,
775
00:15:52.750 --> 00:15:53.190
as I said,
776
00:15:53.270 --> 00:15:53.549
by the way,
777
00:15:53.619 --> 00:15:54.210
at the time.
778
00:15:54.710 --> 00:15:56.520
We talk about redistricting some of these things in,
779
00:15:56.599 --> 00:15:56.760
in,
780
00:15:56.869 --> 00:15:57.760
in Texas in particular,
781
00:15:57.880 --> 00:15:57.989
like,
782
00:15:58.000 --> 00:15:58.239
oh well,
783
00:15:58.320 --> 00:16:00.440
we'll just take this one because we did so well with Hispanics.
784
00:16:00.510 --> 00:16:00.559
Yeah,
785
00:16:00.659 --> 00:16:01.880
do you know that is that gonna last?
786
00:16:02.390 --> 00:16:04.219
These dependable voters for your side?
787
00:16:04.599 --> 00:16:06.260
I'm terribly nervous about it,
788
00:16:06.500 --> 00:16:06.840
um,
789
00:16:06.960 --> 00:16:09.020
as a person who is conservative and cares
790
00:16:09.280 --> 00:16:09.400
about,
791
00:16:09.479 --> 00:16:09.640
you know,
792
00:16:09.760 --> 00:16:11.219
conservatives winning these elections.
793
00:16:11.400 --> 00:16:11.669
Um,
794
00:16:11.880 --> 00:16:13.919
let's look over at the CBS polls.
795
00:16:15.210 --> 00:16:15.450
Um,
796
00:16:15.580 --> 00:16:19.159
CBS News battleground tracker poll finds Democrats maintain House advantage
797
00:16:19.330 --> 00:16:21.010
amid concern about prices.
798
00:16:21.299 --> 00:16:22.940
This is how they project the House to be,
799
00:16:23.099 --> 00:16:25.450
to kind of turn out 229 to 206.
800
00:16:25.739 --> 00:16:27.119
You do see their range,
801
00:16:27.429 --> 00:16:27.690
uh,
802
00:16:27.900 --> 00:16:29.280
their estimate of a range
803
00:16:29.419 --> 00:16:31.340
is 216 to 237.
804
00:16:31.760 --> 00:16:34.049
You need 218 seats in the House,
805
00:16:34.349 --> 00:16:35.039
218.
806
00:16:35.119 --> 00:16:35.500
So
807
00:16:35.919 --> 00:16:38.479
the fact that their outward range is 216
808
00:16:38.479 --> 00:16:40.580
means that the Republicans still have a chance
809
00:16:40.799 --> 00:16:41.039
there,
810
00:16:41.099 --> 00:16:41.400
but
811
00:16:41.599 --> 00:16:44.799
that's why you see a lot of these prediction markets in the nineties right now.
812
00:16:45.119 --> 00:16:46.640
Some of the prediction models,
813
00:16:46.760 --> 00:16:47.000
um,
814
00:16:47.140 --> 00:16:47.150
that,
815
00:16:47.200 --> 00:16:47.320
you know,
816
00:16:47.400 --> 00:16:48.760
the people who are modeling this election,
817
00:16:48.799 --> 00:16:49.159
I think,
818
00:16:49.229 --> 00:16:49.809
uh,
819
00:16:50.280 --> 00:16:53.840
50 + 1 has the Republicans at 99%.
820
00:16:54.570 --> 00:16:55.349
To lose
821
00:16:55.650 --> 00:16:56.219
the house.
822
00:16:56.570 --> 00:16:58.309
99%.
823
00:16:59.210 --> 00:16:59.450
You know,
824
00:16:59.570 --> 00:17:00.960
I think Nate Silver has it like 92,
825
00:17:01.010 --> 00:17:01.570
93%,
826
00:17:01.770 --> 00:17:01.919
right?
827
00:17:02.010 --> 00:17:02.510
So there's,
828
00:17:02.929 --> 00:17:06.010
there are varying things that some places only have it at 75%,
829
00:17:06.089 --> 00:17:06.368
but,
830
00:17:06.630 --> 00:17:07.079
uh,
831
00:17:07.118 --> 00:17:07.969
99%,
832
00:17:08.010 --> 00:17:08.589
uh,
833
00:17:08.890 --> 00:17:09.530
is where that goes.
834
00:17:09.569 --> 00:17:09.989
And so,
835
00:17:10.089 --> 00:17:10.729
you look at this and you say,
836
00:17:10.810 --> 00:17:10.969
all right,
837
00:17:11.050 --> 00:17:11.170
well,
838
00:17:11.250 --> 00:17:12.589
where are we with all of this?
839
00:17:13.020 --> 00:17:14.430
Is there any good news
840
00:17:14.770 --> 00:17:15.430
at all?
841
00:17:16.670 --> 00:17:16.858
Yeah,
842
00:17:16.939 --> 00:17:17.530
there's a little,
843
00:17:17.618 --> 00:17:18.699
there's a little hope.
844
00:17:18.819 --> 00:17:19.540
Let's get to that.
845
00:17:32.500 --> 00:17:33.010
Ah,
846
00:17:33.099 --> 00:17:33.339
yes,
847
00:17:33.459 --> 00:17:35.020
the ray of sunshine.
848
00:17:35.099 --> 00:17:35.890
Is there one,
849
00:17:35.900 --> 00:17:36.459
kinda.
850
00:17:37.500 --> 00:17:39.099
And this one didn't really show up in the polls,
851
00:17:39.140 --> 00:17:40.599
but I want to show you
852
00:17:41.140 --> 00:17:44.619
how things could turn relatively quickly over the next 4 weeks.
853
00:17:45.959 --> 00:17:47.920
Because what we've seen now is
854
00:17:48.079 --> 00:17:50.560
there are major gaps in some of these candidates,
855
00:17:50.760 --> 00:17:52.979
but one of the big problems is Republican voters
856
00:17:53.439 --> 00:17:54.150
kind of like,
857
00:17:54.349 --> 00:17:54.479
uh,
858
00:17:54.959 --> 00:17:55.619
about this election.
859
00:17:56.400 --> 00:17:57.640
It's not a presidential election,
860
00:17:57.719 --> 00:18:00.709
so a lot of people who get interested in politics only once every 4 years,
861
00:18:00.880 --> 00:18:02.359
not all that drawn in by this.
862
00:18:03.170 --> 00:18:03.849
And,
863
00:18:03.930 --> 00:18:04.180
you know,
864
00:18:04.369 --> 00:18:05.329
the people who do,
865
00:18:05.410 --> 00:18:06.829
a lot of people who are kind of like,
866
00:18:07.050 --> 00:18:07.170
you know,
867
00:18:07.250 --> 00:18:09.170
maybe never loved Donald Trump in the first place,
868
00:18:09.329 --> 00:18:10.209
maybe never loved,
869
00:18:10.449 --> 00:18:10.609
loved,
870
00:18:10.719 --> 00:18:13.449
were never particularly MAGA in the first place,
871
00:18:13.770 --> 00:18:14.640
are looking at this and saying,
872
00:18:14.729 --> 00:18:14.969
gosh,
873
00:18:15.010 --> 00:18:15.209
you know,
874
00:18:15.290 --> 00:18:15.719
I
875
00:18:16.050 --> 00:18:17.439
never really loved this guy anyway,
876
00:18:17.569 --> 00:18:19.670
and now things aren't going that well.
877
00:18:19.729 --> 00:18:21.770
I've held my nose and voted for them in the past,
878
00:18:21.890 --> 00:18:22.209
but
879
00:18:22.489 --> 00:18:23.479
this time I'm not gonna bother,
880
00:18:23.530 --> 00:18:24.359
I'm not gonna show up,
881
00:18:24.369 --> 00:18:24.630
or
882
00:18:24.969 --> 00:18:26.089
I'm gonna vote for the Democrat.
883
00:18:26.280 --> 00:18:27.410
There are some people who believe that.
884
00:18:27.520 --> 00:18:27.810
And again,
885
00:18:27.930 --> 00:18:29.130
when we're talking about these elections,
886
00:18:29.250 --> 00:18:30.489
they're razor thin margins.
887
00:18:30.569 --> 00:18:30.750
These,
888
00:18:30.849 --> 00:18:31.869
these little numbers
889
00:18:32.130 --> 00:18:32.510
matter.
890
00:18:32.869 --> 00:18:33.780
But let me show you
891
00:18:34.119 --> 00:18:36.459
how this could change in the next couple of weeks.
892
00:18:36.880 --> 00:18:38.699
This is a question from the CBS News,
893
00:18:39.040 --> 00:18:39.640
who say,
894
00:18:39.760 --> 00:18:42.560
people who say they will definitely vote in the election.
895
00:18:42.959 --> 00:18:45.239
Some polls do this and say this is what likely voters are,
896
00:18:45.349 --> 00:18:45.599
right?
897
00:18:45.880 --> 00:18:47.000
If you say you're definitely gonna vote,
898
00:18:47.160 --> 00:18:47.869
you're a likely voter.
899
00:18:47.920 --> 00:18:48.199
If you say,
900
00:18:48.280 --> 00:18:48.410
uh,
901
00:18:48.479 --> 00:18:49.140
I might vote,
902
00:18:49.560 --> 00:18:51.079
they don't put you in that likely voter,
903
00:18:51.119 --> 00:18:51.660
um,
904
00:18:51.839 --> 00:18:52.109
uh,
905
00:18:52.119 --> 00:18:52.500
group.
906
00:18:53.489 --> 00:18:54.079
This is,
907
00:18:54.199 --> 00:18:57.219
this is how this shows up in a poll that's pretty bad for Republicans
908
00:18:57.520 --> 00:18:58.020
overall.
909
00:18:58.520 --> 00:19:00.739
84% of Democrats say they are
910
00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:01.750
definitely voting,
911
00:19:01.880 --> 00:19:05.140
82% of independents say they are definitely voting,
912
00:19:05.349 --> 00:19:07.660
and 77% of Republicans
913
00:19:07.849 --> 00:19:08.819
are definitely voting.
914
00:19:09.199 --> 00:19:09.790
Now you could see,
915
00:19:09.839 --> 00:19:10.420
obviously,
916
00:19:10.520 --> 00:19:11.109
it's true,
917
00:19:11.140 --> 00:19:12.229
the enthusiasm gap,
918
00:19:12.319 --> 00:19:12.630
uh,
919
00:19:12.640 --> 00:19:14.989
seems to be real in almost all polling,
920
00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:16.319
this does seem to show up.
921
00:19:16.599 --> 00:19:18.520
So I'm not saying that this is a fake poll.
922
00:19:18.680 --> 00:19:20.349
I'm not saying that none of this matters,
923
00:19:20.359 --> 00:19:21.119
cause I think it does.
924
00:19:22.180 --> 00:19:22.520
However,
925
00:19:22.979 --> 00:19:23.050
keep,
926
00:19:23.140 --> 00:19:24.260
keep that pull up there for a second.
927
00:19:25.229 --> 00:19:26.390
One thing I will say,
928
00:19:26.630 --> 00:19:27.630
when you look at this poll.
929
00:19:28.430 --> 00:19:29.160
Is it's real,
930
00:19:29.280 --> 00:19:31.160
the gap isn't that big.
931
00:19:32.040 --> 00:19:34.250
If Republicans over the next month,
932
00:19:34.729 --> 00:19:36.329
can get interested in this election,
933
00:19:36.439 --> 00:19:37.670
woken up enough
934
00:19:38.050 --> 00:19:41.030
to turn that 77% of definitely vote
935
00:19:41.250 --> 00:19:41.829
into
936
00:19:42.329 --> 00:19:42.989
80,
937
00:19:43.319 --> 00:19:44.229
81,
938
00:19:44.449 --> 00:19:45.089
82,
939
00:19:45.219 --> 00:19:47.170
they don't need to get as high as Democrats,
940
00:19:47.250 --> 00:19:49.250
they just need to just get to 80,
941
00:19:49.349 --> 00:19:49.729
81,
942
00:19:49.829 --> 00:19:49.920
8,
943
00:19:50.050 --> 00:19:51.910
maybe 82%.
944
00:19:52.170 --> 00:19:55.540
If that moves 4 or 5 points,
945
00:19:56.089 --> 00:19:58.150
what we're talking about most likely
946
00:19:58.369 --> 00:19:59.849
is a Republican Senate.
947
00:20:00.699 --> 00:20:02.209
The Republican Senate
948
00:20:02.310 --> 00:20:02.930
was a thing,
949
00:20:03.469 --> 00:20:03.949
and has a,
950
00:20:04.030 --> 00:20:04.869
is a thing I took a,
951
00:20:04.939 --> 00:20:05.180
a,
952
00:20:05.209 --> 00:20:06.979
a moderately moderate position.
953
00:20:07.030 --> 00:20:08.670
I think it was a medium position or a small position
954
00:20:08.939 --> 00:20:09.170
on,
955
00:20:09.229 --> 00:20:09.540
uh,
956
00:20:09.550 --> 00:20:11.449
the Republicans to win the Senate months ago,
957
00:20:12.109 --> 00:20:15.780
not because I had massive faith in how this is gonna turn out for Republicans,
958
00:20:16.030 --> 00:20:18.449
but because they have a massive advantage on the map.
959
00:20:18.869 --> 00:20:19.069
They,
960
00:20:19.270 --> 00:20:24.229
all they have to do is win in states where they won by double digits two years ago.
961
00:20:24.979 --> 00:20:26.790
This should not be a heavy lift.
962
00:20:26.920 --> 00:20:29.010
They won Ohio by 13 points.
963
00:20:29.250 --> 00:20:29.489
They won,
964
00:20:29.650 --> 00:20:29.880
I think,
965
00:20:30.010 --> 00:20:30.170
or,
966
00:20:30.290 --> 00:20:30.359
yeah,
967
00:20:30.410 --> 00:20:31.349
I think it was at 13.
968
00:20:31.640 --> 00:20:31.760
Uh,
969
00:20:31.810 --> 00:20:32.290
they won,
970
00:20:32.369 --> 00:20:32.530
uh,
971
00:20:32.609 --> 00:20:34.989
Iowa by something like 13 points.
972
00:20:35.530 --> 00:20:36.239
They won Texas by,
973
00:20:36.250 --> 00:20:36.560
I think,
974
00:20:36.569 --> 00:20:37.489
14 points.
975
00:20:37.609 --> 00:20:38.930
These are not states that
976
00:20:39.689 --> 00:20:40.380
Kansas
977
00:20:40.569 --> 00:20:41.189
was something like
978
00:20:41.369 --> 00:20:42.849
17 or 18 points.
979
00:20:43.750 --> 00:20:45.640
These should be
980
00:20:45.930 --> 00:20:46.540
easy.
981
00:20:47.150 --> 00:20:49.040
And the fact that they aren't is a problem.
982
00:20:49.150 --> 00:20:50.770
But if enough people get,
983
00:20:51.150 --> 00:20:52.609
in the last month of this campaign,
984
00:20:52.709 --> 00:20:54.849
when the news and all the commercials are running.
985
00:20:55.900 --> 00:20:56.459
Wake up and say,
986
00:20:56.540 --> 00:20:56.939
wait a minute,
987
00:20:57.020 --> 00:20:58.420
I gotta do something here.
988
00:20:58.619 --> 00:20:59.619
I can't look at this and say,
989
00:20:59.660 --> 00:21:00.300
I'm gonna stay home.
990
00:21:00.339 --> 00:21:01.459
I'm annoyed with these people.
991
00:21:01.540 --> 00:21:02.810
I've gotta change something.
992
00:21:03.260 --> 00:21:03.390
That,
993
00:21:03.459 --> 00:21:04.050
that is not,
994
00:21:04.219 --> 00:21:07.040
we're not talking about a 20 point swing that is necessary.
995
00:21:07.500 --> 00:21:09.599
We're talking about 4 or 5%
996
00:21:09.900 --> 00:21:11.979
of Republican voters saying,
997
00:21:12.060 --> 00:21:12.790
you know what?
998
00:21:13.020 --> 00:21:14.219
I'm thinking about voting,
999
00:21:14.300 --> 00:21:15.099
but now I'm going to.
1000
00:21:15.790 --> 00:21:17.469
And that changes a lot of these seats.
1001
00:21:17.550 --> 00:21:18.099
I don't know,
1002
00:21:18.109 --> 00:21:19.270
and if these polls are right,
1003
00:21:19.390 --> 00:21:20.069
if it changes,
1004
00:21:20.109 --> 00:21:20.859
let's say,
1005
00:21:20.869 --> 00:21:21.439
Texas.
1006
00:21:22.219 --> 00:21:22.750
Um,
1007
00:21:22.849 --> 00:21:23.410
and maybe,
1008
00:21:23.569 --> 00:21:23.819
uh,
1009
00:21:23.829 --> 00:21:24.609
Alaska,
1010
00:21:25.069 --> 00:21:27.189
but certainly Iowa is a win there.
1011
00:21:27.430 --> 00:21:28.229
Kansas is,
1012
00:21:28.270 --> 00:21:29.969
is a win in that circumstance.
1013
00:21:30.069 --> 00:21:30.890
Ohio.
1014
00:21:31.920 --> 00:21:34.010
Might very well be a win in that circumstance.
1015
00:21:34.199 --> 00:21:34.699
Maine
1016
00:21:34.880 --> 00:21:36.880
might very well be a win in that circumstance.
1017
00:21:37.119 --> 00:21:37.739
Michigan
1018
00:21:37.920 --> 00:21:39.979
might very well be a win in that circumstance.
1019
00:21:40.359 --> 00:21:43.339
This turns from a situation where it's catastrophic for Republicans
1020
00:21:43.599 --> 00:21:45.180
to them holding the Senate.
1021
00:21:45.479 --> 00:21:47.020
So that ray of sunshine does
1022
00:21:47.359 --> 00:21:47.939
exist.
1023
00:21:48.280 --> 00:21:48.790
Um,
1024
00:21:49.160 --> 00:21:52.239
looking at this is just a further breakdown from the CBS poll.
1025
00:21:53.510 --> 00:21:54.089
Um,
1026
00:21:54.270 --> 00:21:55.089
if you think
1027
00:21:55.319 --> 00:21:55.540
Trump,
1028
00:21:55.630 --> 00:21:55.880
like,
1029
00:21:55.930 --> 00:21:56.010
uh,
1030
00:21:56.069 --> 00:21:56.819
they asked Republicans,
1031
00:21:56.869 --> 00:21:57.030
they said,
1032
00:21:57.109 --> 00:21:57.219
hey,
1033
00:21:57.270 --> 00:21:58.270
do you think Trump's,
1034
00:21:58.310 --> 00:21:58.699
uh,
1035
00:21:58.839 --> 00:22:00.729
second term is better or worse than the first one?
1036
00:22:01.069 --> 00:22:01.479
OK?
1037
00:22:01.790 --> 00:22:03.609
If you said it's better than the first one,
1038
00:22:03.910 --> 00:22:06.060
you are definitely gonna vote 86%,
1039
00:22:06.349 --> 00:22:07.930
and you probably vote is,
1040
00:22:08.000 --> 00:22:08.270
uh,
1041
00:22:08.349 --> 00:22:08.770
uh,
1042
00:22:08.949 --> 00:22:09.469
10%.
1043
00:22:09.589 --> 00:22:11.869
So 96% of people fall into that category.
1044
00:22:12.069 --> 00:22:14.089
Only 3% say they're less likely to vote.
1045
00:22:14.469 --> 00:22:15.630
If you think that,
1046
00:22:15.750 --> 00:22:15.989
uh,
1047
00:22:16.189 --> 00:22:18.310
Trump's second term is worse than the first.
1048
00:22:19.119 --> 00:22:23.060
You have only 67% will definitely vote and 16%
1049
00:22:23.359 --> 00:22:23.780
um
1050
00:22:23.880 --> 00:22:24.959
will probably vote.
1051
00:22:25.359 --> 00:22:26.760
That is only 83%.
1052
00:22:26.920 --> 00:22:28.760
So 83% compared to 96%.
1053
00:22:28.800 --> 00:22:32.040
The people who like Trump and are continuing on the Trump bandwagon are like,
1054
00:22:32.119 --> 00:22:33.979
I'm there as they've always been.
1055
00:22:34.319 --> 00:22:35.239
It's the people that are like,
1056
00:22:35.400 --> 00:22:35.900
gosh,
1057
00:22:36.160 --> 00:22:36.280
you know,
1058
00:22:36.319 --> 00:22:38.020
I might have voted for Donald Trump two years ago,
1059
00:22:38.280 --> 00:22:39.780
but this isn't working out very well.
1060
00:22:40.239 --> 00:22:41.140
Those people,
1061
00:22:41.479 --> 00:22:41.959
the question is,
1062
00:22:42.020 --> 00:22:43.359
do those people look at the polls,
1063
00:22:43.520 --> 00:22:44.229
walk in there and say,
1064
00:22:44.280 --> 00:22:44.859
you know what?
1065
00:22:45.989 --> 00:22:47.050
I don't like Donald Trump.
1066
00:22:47.229 --> 00:22:48.050
I don't like what he's done.
1067
00:22:48.349 --> 00:22:49.290
Things aren't going well.
1068
00:22:49.709 --> 00:22:50.109
I,
1069
00:22:50.229 --> 00:22:51.949
I would normally vote for the Republican,
1070
00:22:52.040 --> 00:22:55.030
but I'm pulling the lever for James Tallarico this time.
1071
00:22:55.430 --> 00:22:57.030
Or do they go the opposite way and say,
1072
00:22:57.150 --> 00:22:57.660
gosh,
1073
00:22:57.949 --> 00:22:58.109
like,
1074
00:22:58.229 --> 00:22:58.430
I,
1075
00:22:58.589 --> 00:22:59.420
I think honestly,
1076
00:22:59.510 --> 00:22:59.790
we,
1077
00:22:59.910 --> 00:23:01.869
we need to push back on what's going on right now.
1078
00:23:01.910 --> 00:23:02.819
I'm not happy about it,
1079
00:23:02.880 --> 00:23:03.170
but
1080
00:23:03.790 --> 00:23:05.569
James Tallarico is not the way to do it.
1081
00:23:05.989 --> 00:23:06.310
You wanna,
1082
00:23:06.750 --> 00:23:06.949
like,
1083
00:23:07.069 --> 00:23:08.910
am I really gonna punish Ken Paxton,
1084
00:23:09.119 --> 00:23:09.349
uh,
1085
00:23:09.469 --> 00:23:09.790
for,
1086
00:23:09.869 --> 00:23:10.300
uh,
1087
00:23:10.469 --> 00:23:12.209
for whatever he's done in his life,
1088
00:23:12.469 --> 00:23:12.780
you know,
1089
00:23:13.069 --> 00:23:15.449
I'm gonna spite punish him by ruining my state.
1090
00:23:17.739 --> 00:23:20.099
When it comes down to being in the polls,
1091
00:23:20.170 --> 00:23:23.300
there's a lot of me that thinks that skeptical that there's
1092
00:23:23.300 --> 00:23:25.579
gonna be a giant group of people who do that.
1093
00:23:26.760 --> 00:23:26.989
Now,
1094
00:23:27.060 --> 00:23:27.239
some,
1095
00:23:27.319 --> 00:23:28.000
the question is,
1096
00:23:28.079 --> 00:23:29.050
will they show up?
1097
00:23:29.479 --> 00:23:30.560
That's really the question.
1098
00:23:30.829 --> 00:23:31.109
Um,
1099
00:23:31.199 --> 00:23:31.780
and by the way,
1100
00:23:31.920 --> 00:23:32.790
looking at the economy,
1101
00:23:32.839 --> 00:23:35.319
which of course is the most important issue on a lot of these polls,
1102
00:23:35.560 --> 00:23:37.060
people are are
1103
00:23:37.219 --> 00:23:40.079
blaming Donald Trump more than Joe Biden or really anything else.
1104
00:23:40.160 --> 00:23:41.260
56% said
1105
00:23:41.560 --> 00:23:42.859
Trump's policies are to blame,
1106
00:23:43.109 --> 00:23:44.920
20% said it was Biden's policies,
1107
00:23:44.989 --> 00:23:46.540
19% said both equally,
1108
00:23:47.119 --> 00:23:47.560
um.
1109
00:23:48.329 --> 00:23:49.430
I'll give you one more thing here,
1110
00:23:49.449 --> 00:23:50.050
um.
1111
00:23:51.390 --> 00:23:52.739
This is Hispanic voters.
1112
00:23:52.829 --> 00:23:54.150
This is a real problem in Texas,
1113
00:23:54.229 --> 00:23:54.900
a big problem,
1114
00:23:54.910 --> 00:23:56.969
and the reason why these polls look like they do in Texas.
1115
00:23:57.630 --> 00:23:58.349
In 2024,
1116
00:23:58.469 --> 00:23:59.270
how did they vote for president?
1117
00:23:59.349 --> 00:24:01.050
51-46 for Democrats.
1118
00:24:01.270 --> 00:24:02.500
So 5 point margin.
1119
00:24:02.750 --> 00:24:03.449
That number now,
1120
00:24:03.869 --> 00:24:06.069
60 to 39 in the congressional vote.
1121
00:24:06.189 --> 00:24:06.900
So a 21%,
1122
00:24:06.910 --> 00:24:07.849
it went from 5
1123
00:24:07.949 --> 00:24:08.689
to 21.
1124
00:24:08.910 --> 00:24:10.550
It's a big part of the reason of what we're looking at.
1125
00:24:10.589 --> 00:24:11.459
There's so much in these polls,
1126
00:24:11.510 --> 00:24:15.310
but just to quickly outline a couple of things that I noticed looking at this.
1127
00:24:17.109 --> 00:24:17.239
1,
1128
00:24:17.280 --> 00:24:18.619
the Hispanic vote's a real problem
1129
00:24:18.880 --> 00:24:19.880
for Republicans.
1130
00:24:20.239 --> 00:24:20.719
Um,
1131
00:24:21.099 --> 00:24:21.400
2,
1132
00:24:21.520 --> 00:24:22.319
the gas prices,
1133
00:24:22.400 --> 00:24:23.199
the cost of living,
1134
00:24:23.400 --> 00:24:25.020
massive problem for Republicans.
1135
00:24:25.430 --> 00:24:25.979
Um,
1136
00:24:26.560 --> 00:24:27.060
3.
1137
00:24:28.420 --> 00:24:28.939
The
1138
00:24:29.800 --> 00:24:30.229
The,
1139
00:24:30.290 --> 00:24:30.900
the wave,
1140
00:24:30.979 --> 00:24:32.020
if it is a wave.
1141
00:24:33.089 --> 00:24:33.939
Is
1142
00:24:34.859 --> 00:24:35.560
Uh,
1143
00:24:36.060 --> 00:24:37.500
not evenly balanced right now.
1144
00:24:37.900 --> 00:24:40.140
And this is one of the most interesting parts about this election
1145
00:24:40.140 --> 00:24:42.859
to try to figure it out from a prediction market standpoint.
1146
00:24:43.800 --> 00:24:44.040
You know,
1147
00:24:44.199 --> 00:24:44.560
you think,
1148
00:24:44.630 --> 00:24:44.760
OK,
1149
00:24:44.839 --> 00:24:45.819
it's a Democratic year,
1150
00:24:46.079 --> 00:24:49.800
you can go in there and find some of these Democrats that are up by 5 or 6 points,
1151
00:24:49.920 --> 00:24:51.540
they'll probably win by 10 or 12.
1152
00:24:52.150 --> 00:24:52.560
Um,
1153
00:24:53.310 --> 00:24:55.010
It's not always easy to find that right now.
1154
00:24:55.260 --> 00:24:55.510
Um,
1155
00:24:55.589 --> 00:24:56.670
we've seen this in,
1156
00:24:56.949 --> 00:24:57.109
I mean,
1157
00:24:57.270 --> 00:24:58.670
probably the biggest example for me personally when
1158
00:24:58.670 --> 00:25:00.989
it comes to prediction market positions is Oregon,
1159
00:25:01.069 --> 00:25:01.750
the governor's race.
1160
00:25:01.790 --> 00:25:02.969
There's a debate there this weekend.
1161
00:25:03.540 --> 00:25:03.869
Um,
1162
00:25:03.989 --> 00:25:04.550
that's when I'm gonna,
1163
00:25:04.630 --> 00:25:05.359
or not this weekend,
1164
00:25:05.530 --> 00:25:06.050
I think it's
1165
00:25:06.150 --> 00:25:06.729
Wednesday.
1166
00:25:06.869 --> 00:25:07.430
I don't remember.
1167
00:25:07.589 --> 00:25:08.489
I think it's Wednesday.
1168
00:25:08.829 --> 00:25:09.469
I'm gonna watch that.
1169
00:25:09.540 --> 00:25:11.469
It's Tina Kottek and Christine Drazen.
1170
00:25:11.979 --> 00:25:13.750
The polling there is really close.
1171
00:25:13.900 --> 00:25:15.079
There are polls that show
1172
00:25:15.380 --> 00:25:17.119
the Republican Drazen ahead
1173
00:25:17.310 --> 00:25:18.339
in Oregon.
1174
00:25:18.609 --> 00:25:18.869
Now,
1175
00:25:19.050 --> 00:25:19.369
Oregon,
1176
00:25:19.420 --> 00:25:21.339
that's one of those positions that I have on the Democrat,
1177
00:25:21.420 --> 00:25:23.339
thinking the Democrat would be able to pull through in that race.
1178
00:25:23.420 --> 00:25:25.579
We've seen the Republicans challenged there so many times.
1179
00:25:25.619 --> 00:25:26.459
There's been close elections,
1180
00:25:26.500 --> 00:25:27.930
but the Democrats always seem to pull through.
1181
00:25:28.180 --> 00:25:29.420
I have a position on that race.
1182
00:25:29.739 --> 00:25:30.050
Um,
1183
00:25:30.260 --> 00:25:31.359
she has not pulled away,
1184
00:25:31.699 --> 00:25:32.209
and,
1185
00:25:32.219 --> 00:25:32.729
um,
1186
00:25:32.859 --> 00:25:33.270
you know,
1187
00:25:33.540 --> 00:25:34.000
why?
1188
00:25:34.380 --> 00:25:36.719
What we've seen is in races like,
1189
00:25:36.780 --> 00:25:37.250
um,
1190
00:25:37.500 --> 00:25:38.619
that are more white.
1191
00:25:39.280 --> 00:25:40.040
That are,
1192
00:25:40.060 --> 00:25:40.560
uh,
1193
00:25:40.569 --> 00:25:41.239
older,
1194
00:25:41.520 --> 00:25:44.390
that have been shielded from some of these sort of like,
1195
00:25:44.560 --> 00:25:44.760
you know,
1196
00:25:44.880 --> 00:25:46.239
major issues like,
1197
00:25:46.270 --> 00:25:46.750
um,
1198
00:25:46.959 --> 00:25:47.780
for example,
1199
00:25:48.199 --> 00:25:48.680
uh,
1200
00:25:48.800 --> 00:25:49.640
gas prices,
1201
00:25:49.719 --> 00:25:50.439
tariffs,
1202
00:25:50.479 --> 00:25:50.869
um,
1203
00:25:50.930 --> 00:25:51.260
uh,
1204
00:25:51.270 --> 00:25:52.660
things of that nature.
1205
00:25:53.079 --> 00:25:53.520
Um.
1206
00:25:54.109 --> 00:25:58.170
Those states are not moving as much toward the Democrats as one might think.
1207
00:25:58.430 --> 00:26:00.189
The same thing's happening in Minnesota,
1208
00:26:00.270 --> 00:26:03.449
where Michelle Tafoya is really competitive in a very difficult
1209
00:26:03.829 --> 00:26:04.170
environment.
1210
00:26:04.390 --> 00:26:05.469
Maine is another example.
1211
00:26:05.709 --> 00:26:05.869
I mean,
1212
00:26:05.979 --> 00:26:09.489
Susan Collins has had a great electoral history over the past few cycles,
1213
00:26:09.709 --> 00:26:13.310
but why is she doing well in the most Democrat of these swim swing states?
1214
00:26:13.390 --> 00:26:14.829
Why is she performing well there?
1215
00:26:15.339 --> 00:26:15.839
Um,
1216
00:26:16.099 --> 00:26:16.260
you know,
1217
00:26:16.300 --> 00:26:17.800
it seems to be a formula
1218
00:26:17.949 --> 00:26:19.140
to that type of state.
1219
00:26:19.459 --> 00:26:20.500
I went through something this weekend,
1220
00:26:20.579 --> 00:26:23.640
we'll go through it this week of kind of just like looking at which states
1221
00:26:23.780 --> 00:26:25.599
qualify for the best,
1222
00:26:26.180 --> 00:26:28.979
where Republicans should be most worried and where they should be most optimistic.
1223
00:26:29.219 --> 00:26:30.339
Maybe we'll bring that to you this week.
1224
00:26:30.380 --> 00:26:32.939
I think it'll be interesting for you to see some of those numbers because
1225
00:26:33.209 --> 00:26:35.300
it'll help you understand the prediction markets and
1226
00:26:35.300 --> 00:26:36.680
where you can take a little bit more risk
1227
00:26:36.859 --> 00:26:38.640
and where you need to be a little bit more careful.
1228
00:26:39.050 --> 00:26:40.260
So we'll get into that as well.
1229
00:26:40.329 --> 00:26:41.910
We have a candidate of the day
1230
00:26:42.329 --> 00:26:42.650
coming up.
1231
00:26:42.689 --> 00:26:45.630
We're trying to find those lines as to what's safe and what isn't
1232
00:26:45.890 --> 00:26:47.729
in an environment that's switching on the daily.
1233
00:26:47.849 --> 00:26:47.969
I mean,
1234
00:26:48.010 --> 00:26:48.770
it is a really,
1235
00:26:48.819 --> 00:26:51.229
this is one of the more difficult elections that I can remember
1236
00:26:51.770 --> 00:26:52.689
looking at this and saying,
1237
00:26:52.770 --> 00:26:53.400
what is happening?
1238
00:26:53.530 --> 00:26:53.869
Because
1239
00:26:54.250 --> 00:26:55.810
sometimes you see Democratic states where you
1240
00:26:55.810 --> 00:26:57.390
think they'd be really performing well,
1241
00:26:57.569 --> 00:26:58.400
underperforming,
1242
00:26:58.569 --> 00:27:00.160
you're seeing the opposite on the Republican side.
1243
00:27:00.209 --> 00:27:01.550
It is a weird election.
1244
00:27:01.810 --> 00:27:02.359
Not panicking.
1245
00:27:02.489 --> 00:27:03.530
Panic Day is October 19th.
1246
00:27:03.640 --> 00:27:04.250
We'll panic then.
1247
00:27:05.089 --> 00:27:05.569
For now?
1248
00:27:05.729 --> 00:27:05.969
What is,
1249
00:27:06.079 --> 00:27:07.410
how long is October 19th from now?
1250
00:27:07.560 --> 00:27:08.030
Two weeks?
1251
00:27:09.400 --> 00:27:09.719
Two weeks.
1252
00:27:09.959 --> 00:27:10.630
Today's October 5th,
1253
00:27:10.709 --> 00:27:12.400
so two weeks until panic day.
1254
00:27:12.709 --> 00:27:13.420
Oh my gosh.
1255
00:27:13.670 --> 00:27:14.040
Um,
1256
00:27:14.280 --> 00:27:15.719
we'll continue to modify,
1257
00:27:15.839 --> 00:27:16.959
help you kind of work through,
1258
00:27:17.160 --> 00:27:17.339
uh,
1259
00:27:17.349 --> 00:27:18.680
those risks and rewards,
1260
00:27:18.719 --> 00:27:18.920
uh,
1261
00:27:19.079 --> 00:27:20.219
trying to maximize those,
1262
00:27:20.310 --> 00:27:20.900
of course.
1263
00:27:21.199 --> 00:27:21.359
Uh,
1264
00:27:21.479 --> 00:27:23.140
and we will have a candidate of the day coming up,
1265
00:27:23.160 --> 00:27:24.160
and I wanna do something,
1266
00:27:24.239 --> 00:27:24.400
uh,
1267
00:27:24.479 --> 00:27:26.040
on an interesting ad,
1268
00:27:26.280 --> 00:27:26.390
uh,
1269
00:27:26.439 --> 00:27:27.180
an approach
1270
00:27:27.319 --> 00:27:28.140
happening right now
1271
00:27:28.520 --> 00:27:30.160
in the big Texas race,
1272
00:27:30.439 --> 00:27:31.989
Paxton versus Tallarico.
1273
00:27:32.040 --> 00:27:32.859
We'll get into that
1274
00:27:33.040 --> 00:27:33.400
next.
1275
00:27:50.530 --> 00:27:51.849
So how's it going in your home state,
1276
00:27:52.010 --> 00:27:52.310
Stu?
1277
00:27:52.930 --> 00:27:53.130
Uh,
1278
00:27:53.209 --> 00:27:54.369
lots of interesting races here.
1279
00:27:54.410 --> 00:27:54.689
In fact,
1280
00:27:54.880 --> 00:27:55.530
even in that,
1281
00:27:55.689 --> 00:27:55.890
uh,
1282
00:27:55.969 --> 00:27:59.829
that New York Times poll that had Tallarico up over Paxton by 6 points,
1283
00:28:00.329 --> 00:28:02.209
Abbott was behind Gina
1284
00:28:02.540 --> 00:28:03.410
Hinojosa,
1285
00:28:03.739 --> 00:28:03.920
uh,
1286
00:28:04.010 --> 00:28:04.410
by,
1287
00:28:04.479 --> 00:28:05.079
uh,
1288
00:28:05.170 --> 00:28:06.069
4 points.
1289
00:28:06.410 --> 00:28:06.729
Now,
1290
00:28:07.569 --> 00:28:07.729
gosh,
1291
00:28:07.839 --> 00:28:09.569
that one I find really hard to believe,
1292
00:28:09.609 --> 00:28:10.150
frankly.
1293
00:28:10.609 --> 00:28:10.849
I mean,
1294
00:28:10.969 --> 00:28:12.329
she just seems like a dud,
1295
00:28:12.410 --> 00:28:12.810
frankly,
1296
00:28:12.890 --> 00:28:13.119
but,
1297
00:28:13.170 --> 00:28:13.369
you know,
1298
00:28:13.439 --> 00:28:13.949
whatever.
1299
00:28:14.280 --> 00:28:14.719
Um,
1300
00:28:14.810 --> 00:28:15.270
we will see.
1301
00:28:15.369 --> 00:28:17.410
If people do get sick of incumbents after multiple terms,
1302
00:28:17.489 --> 00:28:19.349
this would be the 4th term for Abbott.
1303
00:28:19.410 --> 00:28:20.130
I think that's part of it.
1304
00:28:20.760 --> 00:28:21.060
Uh,
1305
00:28:21.119 --> 00:28:22.380
but there are a lot
1306
00:28:22.560 --> 00:28:24.920
of ads being run right now.
1307
00:28:25.000 --> 00:28:25.180
You,
1308
00:28:25.680 --> 00:28:26.420
it's,
1309
00:28:26.920 --> 00:28:27.680
it's weird because I,
1310
00:28:27.760 --> 00:28:27.869
you know,
1311
00:28:27.920 --> 00:28:28.650
I've lived in Texas.
1312
00:28:28.719 --> 00:28:29.959
I did live in Pennsylvania for a time,
1313
00:28:30.040 --> 00:28:30.520
which was a,
1314
00:28:30.599 --> 00:28:32.079
a very much a swing state while I was there,
1315
00:28:32.160 --> 00:28:32.670
but other than that,
1316
00:28:32.719 --> 00:28:34.060
I've lived mostly,
1317
00:28:34.520 --> 00:28:34.800
uh,
1318
00:28:34.920 --> 00:28:35.260
in
1319
00:28:35.729 --> 00:28:37.000
states that weren't so swinging.
1320
00:28:37.199 --> 00:28:38.500
Florida for a time as well,
1321
00:28:38.680 --> 00:28:39.959
but Connecticut and Texas,
1322
00:28:40.040 --> 00:28:40.189
like,
1323
00:28:40.239 --> 00:28:40.430
you know,
1324
00:28:40.520 --> 00:28:41.380
just not really.
1325
00:28:41.989 --> 00:28:42.800
Uh,
1326
00:28:42.880 --> 00:28:45.869
you don't see tons and tons of political ads like you do in the swing states.
1327
00:28:45.930 --> 00:28:46.000
Well,
1328
00:28:46.119 --> 00:28:47.439
Texas is the swing state this year.
1329
00:28:47.520 --> 00:28:48.180
They're spending
1330
00:28:48.349 --> 00:28:50.819
a fortune on these ads.
1331
00:28:51.079 --> 00:28:52.079
Every ad,
1332
00:28:52.400 --> 00:28:52.880
when you go to,
1333
00:28:53.010 --> 00:28:53.319
I don't know,
1334
00:28:53.719 --> 00:28:57.000
poor like Kellogg's can't tell us what the new cereal is anymore,
1335
00:28:57.270 --> 00:28:58.339
cause there's no space.
1336
00:28:58.760 --> 00:29:01.180
Every ad is a political ad for one side
1337
00:29:01.400 --> 00:29:02.180
or the other,
1338
00:29:02.920 --> 00:29:03.300
including,
1339
00:29:03.439 --> 00:29:03.680
um,
1340
00:29:03.800 --> 00:29:05.339
and this is something I complained about early.
1341
00:29:06.290 --> 00:29:06.849
I,
1342
00:29:06.969 --> 00:29:07.489
I said,
1343
00:29:07.609 --> 00:29:08.030
hey,
1344
00:29:09.010 --> 00:29:12.729
they better wake up to this Texas race because if they don't spend money in Texas,
1345
00:29:12.790 --> 00:29:13.530
they're going to lose.
1346
00:29:14.780 --> 00:29:16.060
They are spending money in Texas.
1347
00:29:16.180 --> 00:29:17.319
I can't complain about that anymore.
1348
00:29:17.420 --> 00:29:17.489
Now,
1349
00:29:17.500 --> 00:29:19.219
you can argue that they're not doing a good job,
1350
00:29:19.290 --> 00:29:20.619
they're not spending it the right way,
1351
00:29:20.729 --> 00:29:21.199
whatever,
1352
00:29:21.500 --> 00:29:22.099
whatever you want,
1353
00:29:22.180 --> 00:29:22.479
but
1354
00:29:22.859 --> 00:29:23.020
this,
1355
00:29:23.099 --> 00:29:23.459
if this,
1356
00:29:23.540 --> 00:29:26.180
this loss is gonna be purely on Paxton if he loses it,
1357
00:29:26.449 --> 00:29:26.619
uh,
1358
00:29:26.729 --> 00:29:27.060
frankly,
1359
00:29:27.219 --> 00:29:28.599
because you shouldn't lose Texas.
1360
00:29:28.979 --> 00:29:30.390
You shouldn't lose it to this guy,
1361
00:29:30.400 --> 00:29:31.260
of all people,
1362
00:29:31.339 --> 00:29:33.739
you shouldn't lose it to James Tallarico.
1363
00:29:34.380 --> 00:29:34.540
I,
1364
00:29:34.579 --> 00:29:34.660
I,
1365
00:29:34.739 --> 00:29:35.459
I honestly like,
1366
00:29:35.540 --> 00:29:36.010
I,
1367
00:29:36.459 --> 00:29:38.339
I'm not a Beto fan by any means.
1368
00:29:38.400 --> 00:29:39.739
I think he was terrible as well,
1369
00:29:39.800 --> 00:29:40.209
but like,
1370
00:29:40.219 --> 00:29:41.369
he's better than Tallarico.
1371
00:29:41.380 --> 00:29:43.339
I can't imagine what these polls would look like if Beto ran.
1372
00:29:43.380 --> 00:29:44.560
I think it would be
1373
00:29:44.900 --> 00:29:45.520
considerably worse
1374
00:29:46.099 --> 00:29:46.780
for Paxton.
1375
00:29:47.060 --> 00:29:47.459
Luckily,
1376
00:29:47.540 --> 00:29:49.760
he has an opponent like Tallarico,
1377
00:29:50.270 --> 00:29:50.459
who,
1378
00:29:50.550 --> 00:29:50.699
you know,
1379
00:29:50.859 --> 00:29:53.680
while shows up relatively popular in some of these polls,
1380
00:29:54.689 --> 00:29:54.969
You know,
1381
00:29:55.050 --> 00:29:55.400
I just don't,
1382
00:29:55.489 --> 00:29:55.849
I don't know.
1383
00:29:55.969 --> 00:29:56.760
Will that last?
1384
00:29:57.270 --> 00:29:57.280
Uh,
1385
00:29:57.349 --> 00:29:57.359
uh,
1386
00:29:57.489 --> 00:29:58.479
it's hard to imagine.
1387
00:29:58.569 --> 00:29:59.290
It's hard to imagine,
1388
00:29:59.369 --> 00:29:59.969
but it is,
1389
00:30:00.069 --> 00:30:00.290
it's,
1390
00:30:00.369 --> 00:30:01.510
it's happening so far,
1391
00:30:01.569 --> 00:30:03.550
and we are 2 weeks away from panic day.
1392
00:30:03.770 --> 00:30:05.310
So maybe this will hold.
1393
00:30:05.489 --> 00:30:06.199
In TV ad,
1394
00:30:06.250 --> 00:30:08.890
Angela Paxson urges voters to back the
1395
00:30:08.890 --> 00:30:10.810
Republican ticket that includes her estranged husband.
1396
00:30:10.869 --> 00:30:11.349
This is,
1397
00:30:11.890 --> 00:30:13.790
I just wanted to bring this ad to you because I saw it earlier.
1398
00:30:14.869 --> 00:30:17.380
And it really is a sign as to where this race is.
1399
00:30:18.079 --> 00:30:18.540
The,
1400
00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:19.270
um,
1401
00:30:19.560 --> 00:30:22.819
the big knock on Paxson really isn't policy related at all.
1402
00:30:23.560 --> 00:30:25.709
There's some stuff with corruption where they go to that,
1403
00:30:25.760 --> 00:30:28.199
but I don't think that's connected with the people of Texas.
1404
00:30:28.319 --> 00:30:29.260
They've already elected him
1405
00:30:29.880 --> 00:30:31.760
statewide after all that stuff happened.
1406
00:30:32.119 --> 00:30:32.510
Like,
1407
00:30:32.920 --> 00:30:33.520
I don't think they care.
1408
00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:35.400
The thing that's connecting with them is,
1409
00:30:35.479 --> 00:30:35.670
you know,
1410
00:30:35.800 --> 00:30:36.020
look,
1411
00:30:36.280 --> 00:30:36.680
people of,
1412
00:30:36.760 --> 00:30:37.439
of Texas,
1413
00:30:37.520 --> 00:30:38.349
generally good people,
1414
00:30:38.560 --> 00:30:40.180
they don't like the way that the,
1415
00:30:40.319 --> 00:30:40.790
the,
1416
00:30:40.890 --> 00:30:42.000
the marriage ended.
1417
00:30:42.239 --> 00:30:42.359
He,
1418
00:30:42.410 --> 00:30:43.219
he was married
1419
00:30:43.359 --> 00:30:44.400
to Angela Paxton.
1420
00:30:44.949 --> 00:30:46.410
And Angela Paxton,
1421
00:30:46.489 --> 00:30:46.750
uh,
1422
00:30:46.849 --> 00:30:49.199
wrote in the divorce decree or whatever it was,
1423
00:30:49.260 --> 00:30:49.400
uh,
1424
00:30:49.410 --> 00:30:49.589
the,
1425
00:30:49.650 --> 00:30:51.729
the the court paperwork that
1426
00:30:51.930 --> 00:30:52.709
she was divorcing him
1427
00:30:53.010 --> 00:30:54.209
on biblical grounds,
1428
00:30:54.290 --> 00:30:55.170
which everyone takes,
1429
00:30:55.250 --> 00:30:56.170
I think correctly so,
1430
00:30:56.250 --> 00:31:00.030
to see that he may have had some extracurricular activities going on,
1431
00:31:00.329 --> 00:31:00.449
uh,
1432
00:31:00.530 --> 00:31:01.329
apparently that she,
1433
00:31:01.369 --> 00:31:01.589
uh,
1434
00:31:01.599 --> 00:31:02.300
found out about.
1435
00:31:02.729 --> 00:31:05.500
So that's one of the big reasons why I think the people of Texas just don't like,
1436
00:31:05.849 --> 00:31:06.079
uh,
1437
00:31:06.089 --> 00:31:06.849
Ken Paxton,
1438
00:31:06.890 --> 00:31:08.930
and that's why they're not running to his side.
1439
00:31:09.000 --> 00:31:10.619
They're not excited about his candidacy.
1440
00:31:11.520 --> 00:31:15.770
Paxson is running ad after ad after ad with his daughters and his family,
1441
00:31:15.989 --> 00:31:17.589
where he's barely even featured.
1442
00:31:17.760 --> 00:31:19.760
They're trying to solve this problem any way they can.
1443
00:31:19.869 --> 00:31:21.219
They came up with a new approach.
1444
00:31:21.640 --> 00:31:23.750
This is a new ad that I just saw at least the other day.
1445
00:31:24.040 --> 00:31:24.479
This is,
1446
00:31:24.520 --> 00:31:24.880
uh,
1447
00:31:24.920 --> 00:31:25.380
uh,
1448
00:31:25.680 --> 00:31:27.020
Texas State Senator,
1449
00:31:27.439 --> 00:31:27.599
uh,
1450
00:31:27.719 --> 00:31:28.560
Angela Paxton.
1451
00:31:28.680 --> 00:31:29.959
She is the former,
1452
00:31:30.030 --> 00:31:30.089
uh,
1453
00:31:30.160 --> 00:31:30.300
the,
1454
00:31:30.359 --> 00:31:33.599
the ex-wife that broke up with Ken Paxton over these allegations.
1455
00:31:33.920 --> 00:31:34.880
Here's what she has to say.
1456
00:31:35.689 --> 00:31:37.849
I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton.
1457
00:31:38.209 --> 00:31:40.010
People have asked my thoughts about this election,
1458
00:31:40.050 --> 00:31:41.709
and turns out I have some.
1459
00:31:42.250 --> 00:31:43.949
Let's talk about the elephant in the room.
1460
00:31:44.449 --> 00:31:45.530
In a general election,
1461
00:31:45.609 --> 00:31:48.489
it's not as much about the individual players on the team.
1462
00:31:48.609 --> 00:31:50.189
It's about getting the whole team
1463
00:31:50.369 --> 00:31:51.430
across the finish line.
1464
00:31:51.770 --> 00:31:57.010
Either we hold every Republican seat or we hand the future of Texas to the other team.
1465
00:31:57.449 --> 00:32:00.449
That's why I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd.
1466
00:32:00.989 --> 00:32:01.969
Let's hold the line
1467
00:32:02.349 --> 00:32:02.849
together.
1468
00:32:03.229 --> 00:32:05.449
Texas PAC is responsible for the content of this advertising.
1469
00:32:05.790 --> 00:32:05.910
Now,
1470
00:32:05.949 --> 00:32:07.760
it's an interesting approach because,
1471
00:32:08.069 --> 00:32:08.229
you know,
1472
00:32:08.310 --> 00:32:09.709
you have the ex-wife who's the,
1473
00:32:09.790 --> 00:32:10.510
the,
1474
00:32:10.790 --> 00:32:11.709
the jilted wife,
1475
00:32:11.810 --> 00:32:12.170
right,
1476
00:32:12.430 --> 00:32:12.709
um,
1477
00:32:12.949 --> 00:32:13.969
in this scenario,
1478
00:32:14.609 --> 00:32:14.869
saying,
1479
00:32:14.989 --> 00:32:15.390
look,
1480
00:32:16.849 --> 00:32:17.130
I,
1481
00:32:17.239 --> 00:32:17.369
you know,
1482
00:32:17.609 --> 00:32:17.810
my,
1483
00:32:18.000 --> 00:32:19.250
Ken's probably not my favorite guy,
1484
00:32:19.290 --> 00:32:20.459
but I'm gonna vote for him anyway
1485
00:32:20.849 --> 00:32:23.709
because I care about Texas and I care about these policies.
1486
00:32:24.050 --> 00:32:24.410
In that way,
1487
00:32:24.449 --> 00:32:25.349
it's effective,
1488
00:32:25.810 --> 00:32:26.170
um,
1489
00:32:26.329 --> 00:32:27.150
and I think
1490
00:32:27.609 --> 00:32:29.890
it does not hurt having her out there,
1491
00:32:29.930 --> 00:32:30.359
um,
1492
00:32:30.489 --> 00:32:31.689
talking like that.
1493
00:32:31.910 --> 00:32:32.160
Now,
1494
00:32:32.369 --> 00:32:32.829
she's
1495
00:32:33.130 --> 00:32:35.829
bringing this right back to what we kind of all talk about.
1496
00:32:35.839 --> 00:32:36.050
It's like,
1497
00:32:36.290 --> 00:32:36.300
well,
1498
00:32:36.410 --> 00:32:37.719
this shouldn't be team versus team.
1499
00:32:37.770 --> 00:32:39.520
It shouldn't be about the policies and the principles.
1500
00:32:39.689 --> 00:32:39.900
She's like,
1501
00:32:39.979 --> 00:32:40.040
no,
1502
00:32:40.089 --> 00:32:41.010
it's team versus team.
1503
00:32:41.699 --> 00:32:42.390
In this situation,
1504
00:32:42.410 --> 00:32:43.069
it's team versus team,
1505
00:32:43.109 --> 00:32:43.739
and a lot of times,
1506
00:32:43.750 --> 00:32:44.219
like,
1507
00:32:44.229 --> 00:32:46.420
there are a lot of senators that are Republicans,
1508
00:32:46.430 --> 00:32:47.910
I don't appreciate all that much,
1509
00:32:48.069 --> 00:32:48.880
to be honest with you.
1510
00:32:49.310 --> 00:32:50.209
They're not my favorites.
1511
00:32:50.469 --> 00:32:51.589
I don't love their policies.
1512
00:32:51.630 --> 00:32:53.569
I don't love the way they handle themselves in Washington.
1513
00:32:53.869 --> 00:32:54.469
But generally speaking,
1514
00:32:54.540 --> 00:32:55.589
when it comes down to election day,
1515
00:32:55.630 --> 00:32:55.869
I'm like,
1516
00:32:55.910 --> 00:32:56.349
uh,
1517
00:32:56.750 --> 00:32:59.189
I hope Susan Collins wins because if she doesn't,
1518
00:32:59.550 --> 00:32:59.869
uh,
1519
00:32:59.949 --> 00:33:00.189
you know,
1520
00:33:00.589 --> 00:33:01.750
Republicans might lose control.
1521
00:33:01.829 --> 00:33:03.619
We're talking about the Supreme Court and all these big things.
1522
00:33:03.890 --> 00:33:03.900
Uh,
1523
00:33:03.910 --> 00:33:04.829
it's a personal preference thing.
1524
00:33:04.869 --> 00:33:05.989
It's not to do with prediction markets.
1525
00:33:06.030 --> 00:33:06.310
When you look,
1526
00:33:06.390 --> 00:33:07.640
think about this as prediction markets,
1527
00:33:07.760 --> 00:33:08.930
I look at it in a different way,
1528
00:33:09.430 --> 00:33:09.910
which is,
1529
00:33:10.650 --> 00:33:12.640
They see this as a massive problem.
1530
00:33:12.810 --> 00:33:14.430
The fact that they had to go
1531
00:33:14.810 --> 00:33:16.530
to this guy's ex-wife
1532
00:33:16.890 --> 00:33:17.250
and say,
1533
00:33:17.449 --> 00:33:17.729
hey,
1534
00:33:17.969 --> 00:33:19.510
please cut an ad saying,
1535
00:33:20.010 --> 00:33:20.930
without saying it,
1536
00:33:21.239 --> 00:33:23.630
that you'll vote for the guy who cheated on you
1537
00:33:24.170 --> 00:33:25.810
is a rough spot to be in.
1538
00:33:25.890 --> 00:33:26.599
If you think,
1539
00:33:26.729 --> 00:33:27.609
like when I say that,
1540
00:33:27.729 --> 00:33:28.520
I say this to people all the time,
1541
00:33:28.569 --> 00:33:29.989
like the polls are not good for,
1542
00:33:30.449 --> 00:33:30.839
uh,
1543
00:33:30.849 --> 00:33:31.329
Republicans in Texas.
1544
00:33:31.420 --> 00:33:31.479
Oh,
1545
00:33:31.609 --> 00:33:32.689
I don't believe the polls.
1546
00:33:33.520 --> 00:33:34.930
Do you believe the money?
1547
00:33:35.239 --> 00:33:38.099
Do you believe what Republicans are seeing behind the scenes?
1548
00:33:38.439 --> 00:33:41.420
The fact that they are spending millions of dollars running an ad
1549
00:33:41.640 --> 00:33:43.459
with Ken Paxton's ex-wife
1550
00:33:43.680 --> 00:33:45.479
saying she wants you to vote for the team?
1551
00:33:46.270 --> 00:33:48.109
It's not about the individuals.
1552
00:33:48.390 --> 00:33:49.380
It's about the team.
1553
00:33:49.550 --> 00:33:51.140
That's not normal messaging.
1554
00:33:51.420 --> 00:33:53.290
They are terrified of this race,
1555
00:33:53.589 --> 00:33:53.819
uh,
1556
00:33:53.949 --> 00:33:54.969
and that is real.
1557
00:33:55.510 --> 00:33:57.089
That is a real thing.
1558
00:33:57.229 --> 00:33:58.949
And it's something that if you're in the prediction market,
1559
00:33:59.030 --> 00:33:59.150
I,
1560
00:33:59.270 --> 00:33:59.560
I tell you,
1561
00:33:59.670 --> 00:33:59.829
I,
1562
00:33:59.949 --> 00:34:01.390
I think people say all the time to me,
1563
00:34:01.400 --> 00:34:01.550
like,
1564
00:34:01.589 --> 00:34:02.459
what about this Paxson race?
1565
00:34:02.479 --> 00:34:03.300
I'm in this Paxton race.
1566
00:34:03.310 --> 00:34:03.670
What do I do?
1567
00:34:03.709 --> 00:34:04.030
What do I do?
1568
00:34:04.079 --> 00:34:04.619
What do I do?
1569
00:34:05.150 --> 00:34:06.069
I'd be nervous about it.
1570
00:34:06.150 --> 00:34:06.260
I mean,
1571
00:34:06.310 --> 00:34:07.609
I don't think there's anything other than,
1572
00:34:07.869 --> 00:34:08.040
like,
1573
00:34:08.110 --> 00:34:09.110
I'm not sold any.
1574
00:34:09.168 --> 00:34:11.370
I had some Paxson shares from earlier that are down.
1575
00:34:11.708 --> 00:34:13.010
I have not sold them yet.
1576
00:34:13.330 --> 00:34:13.780
Um,
1577
00:34:13.899 --> 00:34:15.418
if I'm convinced he's going to lose,
1578
00:34:15.500 --> 00:34:17.728
I might start selling them and trying to maintain,
1579
00:34:17.899 --> 00:34:18.100
look,
1580
00:34:18.270 --> 00:34:18.918
uh,
1581
00:34:19.129 --> 00:34:19.810
18th Amendment,
1582
00:34:19.889 --> 00:34:20.250
boys,
1583
00:34:20.489 --> 00:34:24.520
18th Amendment of the predictable Constitution is as follows.
1584
00:34:25.060 --> 00:34:25.379
Um,
1585
00:34:25.500 --> 00:34:26.780
don't fall in love with your own traits,
1586
00:34:26.860 --> 00:34:27.699
that's an important one.
1587
00:34:27.938 --> 00:34:29.620
Let me also bring up the 17th Amendment.
1588
00:34:29.739 --> 00:34:31.139
17th Amendment of the Constitution,
1589
00:34:31.340 --> 00:34:31.840
which is
1590
00:34:32.020 --> 00:34:33.399
a smaller loss
1591
00:34:33.739 --> 00:34:34.580
is a win.
1592
00:34:34.820 --> 00:34:38.879
If you bought Ken Paxton at 75 and you feel like he's now worth 40.
1593
00:34:39.340 --> 00:34:40.649
It's OK to shave some of that,
1594
00:34:40.739 --> 00:34:41.379
maybe dump it.
1595
00:34:41.530 --> 00:34:41.699
I mean,
1596
00:34:41.750 --> 00:34:42.418
maybe dump it,
1597
00:34:42.659 --> 00:34:43.100
but I mean,
1598
00:34:43.179 --> 00:34:45.560
shaving your size in that position might be the right way
1599
00:34:45.820 --> 00:34:46.560
to handle that.
1600
00:34:46.889 --> 00:34:47.129
Um,
1601
00:34:47.179 --> 00:34:47.699
I wanna go to,
1602
00:34:47.780 --> 00:34:48.639
I'm gonna look for some
1603
00:34:48.820 --> 00:34:50.080
safe areas.
1604
00:34:50.418 --> 00:34:52.120
Where do I think that safe line is
1605
00:34:52.600 --> 00:34:54.580
in the case of a real Democratic wave,
1606
00:34:54.659 --> 00:34:55.790
if that's what happens here,
1607
00:34:55.978 --> 00:34:58.290
is there money to still be made on Republican candidates?
1608
00:34:58.300 --> 00:35:01.580
Cause that might be where the value is if you can find the line that's safe.
1609
00:35:01.770 --> 00:35:02.459
We'll look at that
1610
00:35:02.620 --> 00:35:02.979
next.
1611
00:35:24.560 --> 00:35:24.689
Yes,
1612
00:35:24.770 --> 00:35:26.280
we do a segment called Candidate Countdown.
1613
00:35:26.290 --> 00:35:28.290
We feature one candidate every single day that we
1614
00:35:28.290 --> 00:35:30.709
think is a good position for you to potentially consider
1615
00:35:30.969 --> 00:35:32.429
in prediction markets,
1616
00:35:32.449 --> 00:35:32.989
and,
1617
00:35:33.020 --> 00:35:33.479
uh,
1618
00:35:33.489 --> 00:35:34.030
we do that
1619
00:35:34.159 --> 00:35:34.889
every day,
1620
00:35:35.020 --> 00:35:35.479
uh,
1621
00:35:35.610 --> 00:35:38.270
and some of them have been cursed as soon as we did it.
1622
00:35:38.409 --> 00:35:40.389
They've had their worst poll of the campaign.
1623
00:35:40.570 --> 00:35:41.370
They had a scandal.
1624
00:35:41.475 --> 00:35:41.975
Breakout.
1625
00:35:42.145 --> 00:35:43.094
It's happened a few times.
1626
00:35:43.475 --> 00:35:44.395
I will say there's been some,
1627
00:35:44.475 --> 00:35:44.715
uh,
1628
00:35:44.834 --> 00:35:46.385
ones that have gone the right way as well.
1629
00:35:46.554 --> 00:35:47.475
Probably the majority of them,
1630
00:35:47.514 --> 00:35:48.465
but there is a curse there,
1631
00:35:48.635 --> 00:35:49.534
so I'm nervous about it.
1632
00:35:49.735 --> 00:35:51.215
We're gonna be very specific here
1633
00:35:51.354 --> 00:35:52.635
as we look at this next race.
1634
00:35:52.675 --> 00:35:55.895
The candidate countdown with 29 days remaining until the midterms.
1635
00:35:56.044 --> 00:35:57.455
Candidate of the day
1636
00:35:57.675 --> 00:35:58.534
is
1637
00:35:59.135 --> 00:36:02.254
Jamie Davis in Louisiana,
1638
00:36:02.354 --> 00:36:03.695
more specifically the
1639
00:36:04.114 --> 00:36:06.114
no position on Jamie.
1640
00:36:07.989 --> 00:36:08.429
Jamie,
1641
00:36:08.949 --> 00:36:09.629
I wonder if these guys like,
1642
00:36:09.800 --> 00:36:09.810
uh,
1643
00:36:09.820 --> 00:36:09.989
hey,
1644
00:36:10.070 --> 00:36:12.939
thanks so much for featuring me on your show with the word no
1645
00:36:13.429 --> 00:36:14.250
across my face.
1646
00:36:14.590 --> 00:36:14.949
Um,
1647
00:36:15.229 --> 00:36:18.510
Jamie Davis is running for Senate in Louisiana.
1648
00:36:18.550 --> 00:36:19.810
He's the Democrat there,
1649
00:36:20.229 --> 00:36:22.030
and he is the beneficiary of many,
1650
00:36:22.110 --> 00:36:24.429
many a puff piece about how wonderful he is,
1651
00:36:24.669 --> 00:36:25.229
like this one,
1652
00:36:25.310 --> 00:36:28.929
how Jamie Davis went from farmer to US Senate candidate.
1653
00:36:29.110 --> 00:36:31.219
You have to go out and see people,
1654
00:36:31.350 --> 00:36:32.110
said Jamie.
1655
00:36:32.310 --> 00:36:32.820
This guy just,
1656
00:36:32.989 --> 00:36:33.110
uh,
1657
00:36:33.219 --> 00:36:34.370
every time I see this picture,
1658
00:36:34.550 --> 00:36:36.909
I think of the show Detroiters and the guy that's in Detroit.
1659
00:36:39.199 --> 00:36:40.520
If you've ever seen the show Detroiters,
1660
00:36:40.560 --> 00:36:41.530
you know what I'm talking about.
1661
00:36:41.800 --> 00:36:43.000
And that is about it.
1662
00:36:43.320 --> 00:36:43.739
OK.
1663
00:36:43.959 --> 00:36:44.320
Uh,
1664
00:36:44.479 --> 00:36:46.479
you're welcome to the 4 people who understood that reference.
1665
00:36:46.590 --> 00:36:46.919
OK.
1666
00:36:47.080 --> 00:36:47.280
Uh,
1667
00:36:47.399 --> 00:36:48.100
so then you have,
1668
00:36:48.159 --> 00:36:48.439
uh,
1669
00:36:48.550 --> 00:36:49.360
the Davis Center,
1670
00:36:49.399 --> 00:36:49.709
uh,
1671
00:36:49.879 --> 00:36:51.260
the data center with Davis.
1672
00:36:52.080 --> 00:36:52.469
Uh,
1673
00:36:52.679 --> 00:36:53.070
by the way,
1674
00:36:53.149 --> 00:36:55.659
this is my hack to all of the mention markets
1675
00:36:55.879 --> 00:36:56.860
of every single,
1676
00:36:56.959 --> 00:36:57.479
um,
1677
00:36:57.639 --> 00:36:58.139
uh,
1678
00:36:58.149 --> 00:36:58.379
debate
1679
00:36:58.600 --> 00:36:59.340
in the public
1680
00:36:59.600 --> 00:37:00.050
is
1681
00:37:00.280 --> 00:37:03.600
no one in like the national media ever talks really about
1682
00:37:03.600 --> 00:37:06.080
data centers or AI or any of that stuff because,
1683
00:37:06.479 --> 00:37:06.679
you know,
1684
00:37:06.800 --> 00:37:07.110
I don't know,
1685
00:37:07.159 --> 00:37:08.199
it's not the most fun,
1686
00:37:08.239 --> 00:37:09.540
sexy issue to talk about.
1687
00:37:09.800 --> 00:37:11.360
But in these local elections,
1688
00:37:11.469 --> 00:37:14.000
every local journalist wants to ask about data centers.
1689
00:37:14.030 --> 00:37:15.129
It's all they wanna talk about.
1690
00:37:15.909 --> 00:37:17.489
So every every freaking election,
1691
00:37:17.550 --> 00:37:18.510
I don't care what it costs.
1692
00:37:18.550 --> 00:37:18.739
I'm,
1693
00:37:18.800 --> 00:37:21.330
I'm buying me a couple of shares of data centers.
1694
00:37:21.790 --> 00:37:22.030
OK?
1695
00:37:22.149 --> 00:37:24.020
That's just my personal stew hack
1696
00:37:24.149 --> 00:37:25.370
for all debates.
1697
00:37:26.100 --> 00:37:26.189
Uh,
1698
00:37:26.389 --> 00:37:26.540
anyway,
1699
00:37:26.620 --> 00:37:27.129
uh,
1700
00:37:27.310 --> 00:37:28.149
he's called for a,
1701
00:37:28.229 --> 00:37:28.350
uh,
1702
00:37:28.429 --> 00:37:28.770
data,
1703
00:37:28.830 --> 00:37:30.189
data center moratorium,
1704
00:37:30.550 --> 00:37:32.520
which is pretty typical of Democratic candidates and,
1705
00:37:32.530 --> 00:37:35.929
in particularly in local races and increasingly some Republican ones as well.
1706
00:37:36.260 --> 00:37:36.469
Now,
1707
00:37:36.590 --> 00:37:39.060
I will say the polling here is super limited.
1708
00:37:39.110 --> 00:37:40.290
We don't know what's going on,
1709
00:37:40.310 --> 00:37:42.469
frankly in this race as far as polling goes.
1710
00:37:42.709 --> 00:37:44.949
There have been two public polls that have been released.
1711
00:37:45.110 --> 00:37:46.100
They both show Julia.
1712
00:37:46.375 --> 00:37:46.455
Lo,
1713
00:37:46.534 --> 00:37:46.995
the opponent,
1714
00:37:47.054 --> 00:37:47.334
by the way,
1715
00:37:47.415 --> 00:37:50.094
is the one that I would say the yes position on Letlow,
1716
00:37:50.334 --> 00:37:50.614
um,
1717
00:37:50.735 --> 00:37:50.975
is,
1718
00:37:51.064 --> 00:37:51.375
uh,
1719
00:37:51.455 --> 00:37:53.614
she's up by 4 points in both of these polls.
1720
00:37:53.655 --> 00:37:55.834
You'll notice both of these polls have been released
1721
00:37:56.135 --> 00:37:57.524
by Jamie Davis,
1722
00:37:57.814 --> 00:37:59.094
who is the guy who paid for these,
1723
00:37:59.175 --> 00:37:59.405
uh,
1724
00:37:59.655 --> 00:38:00.294
particular polls.
1725
00:38:00.364 --> 00:38:00.514
Now,
1726
00:38:00.534 --> 00:38:02.074
one thing that's interesting about that is.
1727
00:38:02.870 --> 00:38:04.669
Typically what you do is you wanna release the
1728
00:38:04.669 --> 00:38:06.340
polls that are absolutely the best case scenario.
1729
00:38:06.439 --> 00:38:07.489
Maybe these polls are real,
1730
00:38:07.790 --> 00:38:08.300
who knows?
1731
00:38:08.510 --> 00:38:08.629
They,
1732
00:38:08.709 --> 00:38:08.909
you know,
1733
00:38:08.989 --> 00:38:09.530
there's some,
1734
00:38:09.750 --> 00:38:10.060
uh,
1735
00:38:10.179 --> 00:38:10.979
legitimate poll,
1736
00:38:11.030 --> 00:38:12.189
polling contacts there,
1737
00:38:12.270 --> 00:38:13.409
though Democratic leaning,
1738
00:38:13.750 --> 00:38:13.949
um,
1739
00:38:14.070 --> 00:38:14.449
but,
1740
00:38:14.760 --> 00:38:15.260
uh,
1741
00:38:15.350 --> 00:38:15.550
you know,
1742
00:38:16.149 --> 00:38:18.169
if your best evidence is that you're up by 4.
1743
00:38:18.840 --> 00:38:19.050
Uh,
1744
00:38:19.129 --> 00:38:19.199
uh,
1745
00:38:19.489 --> 00:38:19.510
or,
1746
00:38:19.520 --> 00:38:19.850
or excuse me,
1747
00:38:19.959 --> 00:38:20.449
down by 4.
1748
00:38:20.530 --> 00:38:20.850
You're not even,
1749
00:38:20.929 --> 00:38:22.409
you can't even find a poll where you're winning.
1750
00:38:22.530 --> 00:38:24.969
The chances are you're probably losing and probably losing by more
1751
00:38:24.969 --> 00:38:26.669
than that in most of the polls that you're looking at.
1752
00:38:26.969 --> 00:38:28.429
Couple of things about this state,
1753
00:38:28.649 --> 00:38:28.919
um,
1754
00:38:29.050 --> 00:38:30.110
it's a little bit of a weird state.
1755
00:38:30.250 --> 00:38:30.689
Letlow,
1756
00:38:30.760 --> 00:38:31.050
of course,
1757
00:38:31.209 --> 00:38:31.449
won,
1758
00:38:31.649 --> 00:38:31.929
um,
1759
00:38:32.209 --> 00:38:32.449
is a,
1760
00:38:32.489 --> 00:38:32.870
is a
1761
00:38:33.090 --> 00:38:34.000
known figure in the state.
1762
00:38:34.290 --> 00:38:36.070
Trump won in 2024,
1763
00:38:36.169 --> 00:38:37.810
60 to 238.
1764
00:38:38.270 --> 00:38:38.510
Uh,
1765
00:38:38.679 --> 00:38:40.199
John Kennedy in 2022,
1766
00:38:40.280 --> 00:38:41.000
the other senator,
1767
00:38:41.239 --> 00:38:43.260
won with 62% of the vote.
1768
00:38:43.570 --> 00:38:45.199
Letlow has won in her House elections,
1769
00:38:45.399 --> 00:38:45.810
handily,
1770
00:38:46.399 --> 00:38:47.280
winning 60%,
1771
00:38:47.360 --> 00:38:48.120
65%,
1772
00:38:48.199 --> 00:38:48.919
67%,
1773
00:38:49.000 --> 00:38:50.020
63%
1774
00:38:50.199 --> 00:38:51.270
in her four races.
1775
00:38:51.600 --> 00:38:52.500
She won the
1776
00:38:52.629 --> 00:38:53.520
runoff relatively,
1777
00:38:53.610 --> 00:38:53.760
uh,
1778
00:38:53.879 --> 00:38:55.580
convincingly by 14 points.
1779
00:38:56.000 --> 00:38:56.149
Uh,
1780
00:38:56.199 --> 00:38:57.760
the other thing that is weird about their is their,
1781
00:38:57.879 --> 00:38:58.040
um,
1782
00:38:58.159 --> 00:38:58.830
voter registration.
1783
00:38:58.879 --> 00:38:59.919
You think Republican state,
1784
00:39:00.060 --> 00:39:00.159
right,
1785
00:39:00.280 --> 00:39:00.760
red state,
1786
00:39:00.879 --> 00:39:01.879
they have a huge margin.
1787
00:39:02.000 --> 00:39:02.199
Actually,
1788
00:39:02.280 --> 00:39:02.939
not really.
1789
00:39:03.280 --> 00:39:05.699
The Democrats have led in voter registration forever
1790
00:39:06.280 --> 00:39:07.320
until very recently.
1791
00:39:07.729 --> 00:39:07.889
Now,
1792
00:39:07.969 --> 00:39:08.649
it's interesting,
1793
00:39:08.810 --> 00:39:08.989
uh,
1794
00:39:09.010 --> 00:39:10.080
back in 2021,
1795
00:39:10.570 --> 00:39:14.330
Democrats had a 225,000 voter registration advantage,
1796
00:39:14.409 --> 00:39:16.570
even though Republicans win the state almost all the time.
1797
00:39:17.689 --> 00:39:23.050
That had switched from 225,000 toward Democrats to 55,000 toward Democrats in 2025
1798
00:39:23.219 --> 00:39:23.959
and actually
1799
00:39:24.100 --> 00:39:25.939
is now increased for the first time
1800
00:39:26.300 --> 00:39:27.409
for a Republican edge.
1801
00:39:27.770 --> 00:39:30.959
Republicans now lead in voter registration for the first time in a long time
1802
00:39:31.129 --> 00:39:31.979
in Mississippi.
1803
00:39:32.300 --> 00:39:33.659
That doesn't really connect with the way.
1804
00:39:33.719 --> 00:39:35.280
They vote because they always vote Republican anyway,
1805
00:39:35.479 --> 00:39:36.449
but the point is that the,
1806
00:39:36.679 --> 00:39:37.800
it's more about the momentum there.
1807
00:39:37.879 --> 00:39:38.889
Where's the movement going?
1808
00:39:38.959 --> 00:39:40.439
The movement's going toward Republicans,
1809
00:39:40.520 --> 00:39:41.060
not away
1810
00:39:41.360 --> 00:39:42.360
in this particular state.
1811
00:39:42.469 --> 00:39:43.820
She's got a big money advantage
1812
00:39:44.010 --> 00:39:44.780
as well.
1813
00:39:45.139 --> 00:39:46.479
As far as the points against it,
1814
00:39:46.560 --> 00:39:46.840
um,
1815
00:39:46.949 --> 00:39:47.080
you know,
1816
00:39:47.159 --> 00:39:48.600
she's not like massively popular.
1817
00:39:48.669 --> 00:39:49.790
She's well known in the state.
1818
00:39:50.159 --> 00:39:52.399
The best point for Jamie Davis is nobody really
1819
00:39:52.399 --> 00:39:54.000
knows anything about him or knows who he is.
1820
00:39:54.389 --> 00:39:59.149
So maybe just generalized frustration could lead to somehow this race being close,
1821
00:39:59.229 --> 00:39:59.889
but I expect
1822
00:40:00.270 --> 00:40:01.350
Ludlow to win this race.
1823
00:40:01.389 --> 00:40:03.179
This is what the Calci market looks like,
1824
00:40:03.429 --> 00:40:04.429
and there's not a massive,
1825
00:40:04.629 --> 00:40:04.709
again,
1826
00:40:04.790 --> 00:40:05.750
I'm looking for where's this,
1827
00:40:05.810 --> 00:40:05.939
wow,
1828
00:40:05.989 --> 00:40:06.550
it's up to 9,
1829
00:40:06.580 --> 00:40:06.909
jeez.
1830
00:40:07.030 --> 00:40:07.750
Every time I do this,
1831
00:40:07.790 --> 00:40:10.169
it hops like 5 points by the time I get to it.
1832
00:40:10.469 --> 00:40:10.830
Uh,
1833
00:40:11.020 --> 00:40:11.149
you know,
1834
00:40:11.189 --> 00:40:12.709
we're buying it around and then like the,
1835
00:40:12.760 --> 00:40:13.350
if you go back to that,
1836
00:40:13.469 --> 00:40:15.830
where's that little like gap there at the beginning of October.
1837
00:40:16.219 --> 00:40:17.000
Um,
1838
00:40:17.239 --> 00:40:17.540
Adam,
1839
00:40:17.659 --> 00:40:17.879
like,
1840
00:40:17.939 --> 00:40:18.169
uh,
1841
00:40:18.419 --> 00:40:18.739
90,
1842
00:40:18.860 --> 00:40:18.899
yeah,
1843
00:40:19.020 --> 00:40:19.379
about 90,
1844
00:40:19.459 --> 00:40:20.139
I was gonna say 90%.
1845
00:40:20.219 --> 00:40:21.620
So I'm not 90.4%.
1846
00:40:21.860 --> 00:40:22.219
It was at,
1847
00:40:22.300 --> 00:40:22.919
not that recently,
1848
00:40:23.010 --> 00:40:23.129
uh,
1849
00:40:23.219 --> 00:40:23.699
not that long ago.
1850
00:40:23.800 --> 00:40:24.600
It is rising.
1851
00:40:25.060 --> 00:40:25.199
You know,
1852
00:40:25.330 --> 00:40:27.139
and 5% isn't a massive take here.
1853
00:40:27.199 --> 00:40:27.889
I get that.
1854
00:40:28.139 --> 00:40:30.060
But I'm looking for what's on the safe line.
1855
00:40:30.129 --> 00:40:32.760
If you're looking for safe stuff that's on the safer side of the line,
1856
00:40:33.139 --> 00:40:35.139
there's a lot of 5% type gains you can get in a month.
1857
00:40:35.250 --> 00:40:35.419
Again,
1858
00:40:35.459 --> 00:40:36.719
you're getting 3% a year
1859
00:40:36.860 --> 00:40:37.659
on your bank accounts.
1860
00:40:37.860 --> 00:40:38.889
So 5% in a month,
1861
00:40:39.139 --> 00:40:39.860
not bad,
1862
00:40:40.229 --> 00:40:40.409
uh,
1863
00:40:40.500 --> 00:40:41.459
if that's where you want to look.
1864
00:40:41.540 --> 00:40:41.669
OK,
1865
00:40:41.770 --> 00:40:42.300
we're gonna take a break,
1866
00:40:42.409 --> 00:40:43.739
come back with more here in just a second.
1867
00:40:52.479 --> 00:40:52.560
Well,
1868
00:40:52.639 --> 00:40:54.439
I have some good news and bad news personally.
1869
00:40:54.590 --> 00:40:54.919
Uh,
1870
00:40:55.270 --> 00:40:55.360
yesterday,
1871
00:40:55.399 --> 00:40:57.080
I wanted to let you just paint the picture here.
1872
00:40:57.159 --> 00:40:58.600
I was at a bar,
1873
00:40:58.739 --> 00:40:59.040
uh,
1874
00:40:59.159 --> 00:41:01.060
and it was an Eagles bar,
1875
00:41:01.459 --> 00:41:01.679
uh,
1876
00:41:01.800 --> 00:41:03.060
for the end of the Eagles game,
1877
00:41:03.250 --> 00:41:03.479
um,
1878
00:41:03.560 --> 00:41:06.360
which I was surrounded by other Eagles fans watching the Eagles and Rams
1879
00:41:06.360 --> 00:41:09.100
where the Eagles were leading 20 to 10 late in the third quarter.
1880
00:41:09.510 --> 00:41:09.919
Um,
1881
00:41:10.000 --> 00:41:14.659
they got to the two-yard line and needed to punch it in basically to put the game away.
1882
00:41:14.949 --> 00:41:17.080
They were 97% chance favorites.
1883
00:41:17.159 --> 00:41:19.639
The Wall Street Journal helpfully reminds me of the situation.
1884
00:41:19.679 --> 00:41:21.129
They had a 97% chance of losing,
1885
00:41:21.229 --> 00:41:22.020
then showed why
1886
00:41:22.280 --> 00:41:24.439
the Rams were the Super Bowl favorites.
1887
00:41:24.550 --> 00:41:24.679
Yeah,
1888
00:41:24.840 --> 00:41:25.379
great for them.
1889
00:41:25.879 --> 00:41:26.239
Um,
1890
00:41:26.399 --> 00:41:26.520
now,
1891
00:41:26.560 --> 00:41:27.449
I will say,
1892
00:41:29.919 --> 00:41:31.979
Did some enterprising gentlemen
1893
00:41:32.300 --> 00:41:32.820
perhaps,
1894
00:41:33.010 --> 00:41:33.500
uh,
1895
00:41:33.560 --> 00:41:37.080
buy a bunch of shares at 5 and 7 cents as all of this was happening?
1896
00:41:37.199 --> 00:41:37.820
Yes.
1897
00:41:38.320 --> 00:41:38.479
Yes,
1898
00:41:38.600 --> 00:41:39.939
so good news being
1899
00:41:40.080 --> 00:41:42.280
prediction markets helped me hedge my life,
1900
00:41:42.679 --> 00:41:43.370
which was nice,
1901
00:41:43.439 --> 00:41:44.030
bad news.
1902
00:41:44.199 --> 00:41:46.560
I was not only in an Eagles bar watching this happen,
1903
00:41:46.639 --> 00:41:48.479
so everyone was wanting to commit suicide,
1904
00:41:48.560 --> 00:41:49.899
but on the other side of the bar,
1905
00:41:50.120 --> 00:41:50.600
which was open,
1906
00:41:50.719 --> 00:41:54.300
we were all Cowboys fans at the exact same time they were coming back
1907
00:41:54.479 --> 00:41:55.159
and winning.
1908
00:41:55.439 --> 00:41:56.719
So the Cowboys fans are winning,
1909
00:41:56.800 --> 00:41:57.629
the Eagles fans are like,
1910
00:41:57.719 --> 00:41:58.379
it was terrible.
1911
00:41:59.129 --> 00:42:00.629
And I will say I should have put
1912
00:42:00.929 --> 00:42:01.790
much more money
1913
00:42:01.969 --> 00:42:04.449
on the 5 cent shares because no amount of money,
1914
00:42:04.610 --> 00:42:04.969
I would have,
1915
00:42:05.030 --> 00:42:07.030
I would have rather have lost a fortune
1916
00:42:07.169 --> 00:42:08.229
than dealt with that situation.
1917
00:42:08.370 --> 00:42:09.530
All that being said is I want to lead you
1918
00:42:09.530 --> 00:42:11.010
to a market I've talked about a couple of times,
1919
00:42:11.050 --> 00:42:11.610
which I just,
1920
00:42:11.649 --> 00:42:13.030
I really like these markets a lot.
1921
00:42:13.550 --> 00:42:13.919
Again,
1922
00:42:14.000 --> 00:42:14.840
we talk about sports.
1923
00:42:14.959 --> 00:42:15.060
Yeah,
1924
00:42:15.149 --> 00:42:15.959
you can do about,
1925
00:42:15.969 --> 00:42:16.179
uh,
1926
00:42:16.189 --> 00:42:16.760
winning and losing.
1927
00:42:16.879 --> 00:42:18.800
I love hedging my life with prediction markets.
1928
00:42:18.949 --> 00:42:20.280
It's one of the central things that I,
1929
00:42:20.429 --> 00:42:21.159
I use them for.
1930
00:42:21.360 --> 00:42:21.560
Um,
1931
00:42:21.639 --> 00:42:21.939
but
1932
00:42:22.080 --> 00:42:23.979
there's also these markets which I really like.
1933
00:42:24.080 --> 00:42:24.239
Um,
1934
00:42:24.290 --> 00:42:26.000
these are the total wins markets,
1935
00:42:26.010 --> 00:42:26.300
and I've,
1936
00:42:26.360 --> 00:42:27.540
I've discussed them a couple of times,
1937
00:42:27.719 --> 00:42:29.110
especially as around the Eagles.
1938
00:42:29.189 --> 00:42:29.550
The Eagles,
1939
00:42:29.600 --> 00:42:30.080
I've watched them,
1940
00:42:30.189 --> 00:42:31.320
they're not winning 1314,
1941
00:42:31.439 --> 00:42:32.340
15 games this year.
1942
00:42:32.439 --> 00:42:33.620
They're just not that kind of team.
1943
00:42:33.840 --> 00:42:34.860
I'm hoping they can
1944
00:42:35.350 --> 00:42:37.129
barely get into the playoffs if they're lucky.
1945
00:42:37.290 --> 00:42:38.439
Just show me this market here real quick,
1946
00:42:38.520 --> 00:42:38.760
Adam,
1947
00:42:38.840 --> 00:42:39.219
if you could.
1948
00:42:40.360 --> 00:42:41.500
You see the spikes here.
1949
00:42:41.719 --> 00:42:41.879
Uh,
1950
00:42:42.040 --> 00:42:42.439
when they win,
1951
00:42:42.510 --> 00:42:43.070
they get spikes.
1952
00:42:43.080 --> 00:42:43.540
When they lose,
1953
00:42:43.570 --> 00:42:44.159
it drops off,
1954
00:42:44.239 --> 00:42:44.550
right?
1955
00:42:44.800 --> 00:42:45.050
Right now,
1956
00:42:45.080 --> 00:42:46.189
they're predicting 10 wins,
1957
00:42:46.199 --> 00:42:46.620
which,
1958
00:42:47.030 --> 00:42:47.540
you know,
1959
00:42:47.719 --> 00:42:47.909
I,
1960
00:42:48.000 --> 00:42:48.060
I,
1961
00:42:48.159 --> 00:42:50.479
is my optimistic case for this team this year,
1962
00:42:50.590 --> 00:42:50.919
frankly.
1963
00:42:50.979 --> 00:42:52.379
The way they've looked the last couple of weeks,
1964
00:42:52.560 --> 00:42:54.600
they might not win another game for the rest of the season.
1965
00:42:54.679 --> 00:42:55.780
But if you scroll down,
1966
00:42:56.360 --> 00:42:56.629
uh,
1967
00:42:56.800 --> 00:42:57.479
toward the bottom here,
1968
00:42:57.520 --> 00:42:58.090
you see,
1969
00:42:58.239 --> 00:42:58.479
give me,
1970
00:42:58.600 --> 00:43:00.179
give it toward the high number of wins here.
1971
00:43:00.590 --> 00:43:00.899
Um,
1972
00:43:01.000 --> 00:43:01.719
right now,
1973
00:43:01.830 --> 00:43:02.739
uh,
1974
00:43:02.830 --> 00:43:03.919
is there any more past 14?
1975
00:43:04.000 --> 00:43:04.439
Is it 15,
1976
00:43:04.560 --> 00:43:05.350
there's nothing on 15,
1977
00:43:05.399 --> 00:43:05.550
right?
1978
00:43:05.600 --> 00:43:06.810
So 15 is at,
1979
00:43:07.120 --> 00:43:07.320
uh,
1980
00:43:07.439 --> 00:43:08.080
theoretically,
1981
00:43:08.239 --> 00:43:09.479
you could still buy shares of that one.
1982
00:43:09.850 --> 00:43:09.969
Uh,
1983
00:43:10.139 --> 00:43:11.370
because they've lost two games.
1984
00:43:11.530 --> 00:43:12.620
So if they won out from now on,
1985
00:43:12.689 --> 00:43:13.649
they'd be 15 and 2.
1986
00:43:13.889 --> 00:43:15.479
You see at 14 plus wins,
1987
00:43:15.570 --> 00:43:16.030
they're at,
1988
00:43:16.050 --> 00:43:16.439
uh,
1989
00:43:16.459 --> 00:43:16.469
a,
1990
00:43:16.489 --> 00:43:18.030
a 3% chance
1991
00:43:18.250 --> 00:43:18.719
for that.
1992
00:43:18.929 --> 00:43:20.550
13 is 12%.
1993
00:43:20.929 --> 00:43:22.790
What I really like about these markets
1994
00:43:23.010 --> 00:43:24.209
is they
1995
00:43:24.370 --> 00:43:25.389
expire
1996
00:43:25.820 --> 00:43:26.429
when
1997
00:43:26.610 --> 00:43:29.639
the record is no longer mathematically possible.
1998
00:43:30.129 --> 00:43:30.590
So,
1999
00:43:31.050 --> 00:43:32.030
if you take,
2000
00:43:32.330 --> 00:43:32.929
um,
2001
00:43:33.090 --> 00:43:33.550
uh,
2002
00:43:33.649 --> 00:43:36.889
like no on 14 or 15 or 13 in this case,
2003
00:43:36.969 --> 00:43:38.110
13 wins.
2004
00:43:39.120 --> 00:43:40.510
You can get 12% and,
2005
00:43:40.679 --> 00:43:41.399
and you might say,
2006
00:43:41.469 --> 00:43:41.550
well,
2007
00:43:41.600 --> 00:43:43.120
I don't want to wait till the end of the NFL season.
2008
00:43:43.199 --> 00:43:44.909
It's months and months and months for only 12%,
2009
00:43:44.989 --> 00:43:45.989
but that's not how it works.
2010
00:43:46.159 --> 00:43:48.219
The 12% actually expires
2011
00:43:48.419 --> 00:43:49.540
when they lose their fifth game,
2012
00:43:49.719 --> 00:43:50.280
whenever that is,
2013
00:43:50.360 --> 00:43:51.040
and that is coming,
2014
00:43:51.199 --> 00:43:51.570
by the way,
2015
00:43:51.679 --> 00:43:52.120
boys and girls,
2016
00:43:52.159 --> 00:43:53.120
they're not winning 13 games.
2017
00:43:53.229 --> 00:43:54.280
That's not happening this year.
2018
00:43:54.360 --> 00:43:55.110
I would love it to happen.
2019
00:43:55.159 --> 00:43:56.120
It is not occurring.
2020
00:43:56.560 --> 00:43:56.840
So,
2021
00:43:56.959 --> 00:43:58.590
you want to make 12% in,
2022
00:43:58.750 --> 00:43:58.879
they,
2023
00:43:59.000 --> 00:43:59.610
they'd have to win,
2024
00:43:59.620 --> 00:43:59.760
what,
2025
00:43:59.840 --> 00:44:01.040
123 more,
2026
00:44:01.120 --> 00:44:02.459
they have to lose 3 more games.
2027
00:44:03.159 --> 00:44:04.159
I don't know how long that's going to take.
2028
00:44:04.270 --> 00:44:07.340
Maybe 4 to 5 weeks is my projection on that one.
2029
00:44:08.850 --> 00:44:10.520
You wanna make 12% in 4 to 5 weeks,
2030
00:44:10.610 --> 00:44:11.590
you can do that in the election,
2031
00:44:11.689 --> 00:44:12.250
or you can go to look,
2032
00:44:12.409 --> 00:44:13.189
look at these as well
2033
00:44:13.449 --> 00:44:14.870
and play these as they go down.
2034
00:44:15.090 --> 00:44:15.689
You wanna go to 12?
2035
00:44:15.729 --> 00:44:16.570
I don't think they're winning 12 either.
2036
00:44:16.649 --> 00:44:17.489
That's 21%.
2037
00:44:17.610 --> 00:44:19.350
That also might take about 4 or 5 weeks
2038
00:44:19.610 --> 00:44:20.080
at this rate.
2039
00:44:20.169 --> 00:44:20.530
So anyway,
2040
00:44:20.610 --> 00:44:22.870
I just interesting market to look at when you're looking at your team
2041
00:44:23.250 --> 00:44:24.149
and you're looking at maybe,
2042
00:44:24.209 --> 00:44:24.639
um,
2043
00:44:24.729 --> 00:44:24.919
you know,
2044
00:44:25.010 --> 00:44:26.409
if you're hedging your favorite team,
2045
00:44:26.530 --> 00:44:28.550
which is a great way to use these things to get paid for that.
2046
00:44:28.770 --> 00:44:29.239
But also,
2047
00:44:29.250 --> 00:44:31.709
like if you see a team that you don't think has any chance at that,
2048
00:44:32.129 --> 00:44:34.260
kind of an interesting way of like looking long-term.
2049
00:44:34.370 --> 00:44:36.425
You're not trying to project what's gonna happen at a Day to day,
2050
00:44:36.465 --> 00:44:37.564
there's lots of noise in there,
2051
00:44:37.864 --> 00:44:39.774
but when you kind of get to the signal a little bit,
2052
00:44:40.024 --> 00:44:40.135
uh,
2053
00:44:40.145 --> 00:44:41.625
it makes it a little bit more understandable.
2054
00:44:41.864 --> 00:44:42.985
It's predictableShow.com.
2055
00:44:43.264 --> 00:44:43.665
Join us there,
2056
00:44:43.745 --> 00:44:44.665
PredictableShow.com.
2057
00:44:44.784 --> 00:44:46.465
Lots of great election tools,
2058
00:44:46.574 --> 00:44:47.965
all sorts of things are available
2059
00:44:48.145 --> 00:44:49.004
for you there.
2060
00:44:49.185 --> 00:44:50.024
I think you'll enjoy it,
2061
00:44:50.104 --> 00:44:52.844
get a great value out of the premium subscription as well.
2062
00:44:53.064 --> 00:44:53.985
All my picks are up there.
2063
00:44:54.064 --> 00:44:55.824
There's now over 350 picks
2064
00:44:55.945 --> 00:44:58.725
that I have on various prediction markets which you can kind of check out
2065
00:44:58.985 --> 00:45:00.574
and uh see if you wanna go along with.
2066
00:45:00.745 --> 00:45:02.094
It's all the time that we have today.
2067
00:45:02.385 --> 00:45:03.125
We will see you
2068
00:45:03.264 --> 00:45:03.344
tomorrow.