The UNDERCOVER Election: Party ID Goes ROGUE for the Midterms

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Democrats may have found a new way to win the midterms.
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Stop running as Democrats.
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Ah yes,
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the undercover midterms are here and the markets may not be ready for it.
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Somebody leaked Ken Paxton's private audio.
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Is this a big scandal?
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Well,
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the question is whether Texas voters care,
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uh,
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because the Senate market might be starting to.
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And then I'm heading to Florida to see if
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I can personally destroy a candidate's political career.
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Candidate Countdown is back for another episode.
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All of that and more coming up on tonight's
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Predictable with Stu.
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All right,
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here we go.
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We have uh a great show for you tonight on Predictable with Stu.
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I wanna tell you,
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if you are new to prediction markets and you don't really understand them at all,
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that's OK.
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We,
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that's part of what we do here is try to bring you along on this
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to see if you wanna be involved
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in prediction markets.
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We'll give you all the election information as well,
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but if you wanna get involved in prediction markets
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from the start,
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like beginning,
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I'm signing onto the website all the way through
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predictable 101.
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Dot com.
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We'll get you there.
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There is a brand new,
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uh,
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like the 5th video is out there now.
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This is about how to,
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everything from,
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you know,
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getting onto an account,
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funding it,
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how to buy with,
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uh,
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dollars and,
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and shares and limit orders and all these different things
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that you may or may not want to go into,
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uh,
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but it's good there for you,
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free resource all the time,
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predictable101.com.
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We have 33 days until
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the midterm elections are here.
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33 days and of course early voting is already happening in what is it 5 states now
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so
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I mean the election really has already started technically
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uh more to come as well.
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Maine,
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I don't know if you noticed Maine kind of a big key
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to this election.
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Uh,
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with the Susan Collins Senate race,
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uh,
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October 4th,
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which is what this weekend,
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right?
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That's Sunday.
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That's Sunday.
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I don't know.
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It's Sunday,
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I think.
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Anyway,
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Maine starts.
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We got
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California,
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Montana,
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and Nebraska after that.
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Both Montana and Nebraska have,
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I mean,
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Nebraska for sure has an interesting race.
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Montana is somewhat interesting as well,
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so
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we'll get into that,
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uh,
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as we get into the,
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uh,
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coming
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days.
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We have a,
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I don't know,
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I guess an unintentional theme.
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Unintentional theme.
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We planned the show out so well,
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we even
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occasionally recognize
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in retrospect that we had a theme for the week.
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That's what we do here.
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And the unintentional theme of the week
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was different tactics being used,
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typically by Democrats in this particular election.
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To try to
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win in places they can't normally win.
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Now,
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again,
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I go back and forth on this because I don't like some of these tactics.
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Some of these tactics I find to be,
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uh,
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quite,
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um,
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dishonest
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and,
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uh,
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you know,
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basically giving you a,
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uh,
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with a target idea of fooling voters into voting for them.
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So I don't like that part of it.
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And the other part of me says,
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well,
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you know,
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Republicans.
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Look,
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they should be thinking about how to implement tactics that will make
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them do well in states where they don't normally win as well.
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I'd,
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I'd ideally like them not to be completely dishonest,
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frankly.
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You know,
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it's the,
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maybe that's just me,
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I'm a little old school in that way,
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but like,
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these type of tactics are somewhat effective
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and are moving particular races.
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And we started out with the week talking about
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the fake independence,
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right?
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They are,
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they're trying this in 4 different states.
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You have,
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um,
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South Dakota,
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Idaho,
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Nebraska.
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Uh,
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and,
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uh,
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the four states,
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Montana,
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did I say Montana?
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I don't know.
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Whatever four states they are,
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uh,
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they are running basically no Democrats.
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OK,
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they're saying
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we're just gonna run an independent and we want you,
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all of our Democratic voters to vote for the independent
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to beat the Republican.
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In many cases,
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they're even pulling the Democratic candidate
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off the ballot completely.
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They don't even have a candidate in the Senate race.
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So they're trying that in 4 states.
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You have a,
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a minor tactic
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that they're using in Alaska,
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which is putting a guy with the same name.
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Uh,
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on
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The ballot as the Republican,
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so hopefully some of the votes instead of going to that Republican will instead go to
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the uh the
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the fake Dan Sullivan
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in Alaska.
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So that's another tactic to try.
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Another one is taking people
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who are
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former Republicans
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and trying to run them
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as uh
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kind of moderate candidates.
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And saying,
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look,
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sure,
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we don't like all those crazy
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Democrats,
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and we're not AOC type Democrats.
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These are
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I mean this guy used to be a Republican.
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Now this is a pretty standard tactic.
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They've tried this over the years.
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Limited success with it.
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They are trying it,
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uh,
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you know,
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in,
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in some level,
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you could argue they're trying it in Maine.
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Troy Jackson.
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Used to be a Republican a very long time ago,
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was an independent for a while now,
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really a Bernie Sanders Democrat and outspoken about that.
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So I don't really count that one,
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frankly.
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Uh,
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also,
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they tried to,
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uh,
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you know,
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they were attempting to run a,
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a groper,
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uh,
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before that.
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So,
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uh,
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it wasn't their plan to run Troy Jackson.
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Uh,
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so he's there,
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but I don't really count him.
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Florida,
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I do count,
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uh,
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David Jolly is there.
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He's the,
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uh,
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Republican,
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uh,
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or Democratic candidate,
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used to be a Republican.
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And now is running in Florida and trying to say,
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hey,
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you know,
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I know you guys won't vote for Democrats anymore,
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but you should vote for me because
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I used to be a Republican and I'm moderate and
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you can trust me and Byron Donalds is bad.
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We talked,
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we're gonna talk a little bit about that race here coming up in,
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in,
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in a minute.
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Um,
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secondarily,
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uh,
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the race in Kansas is a really big example of this,
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maybe the most
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blatant one.
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Arguably the most blatant one.
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This is,
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uh,
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and,
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and to tell you where we are
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in this race,
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the fact that I'm doing a segment
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less than 5 weeks before the election about Kansas.
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Tells you where the climate is right now.
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These are the stretch goals for Democrats.
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If they're,
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if we're talking about Kansas right now,
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they're in a good spot.
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Kansas should be easy.
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In fact,
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it's so easy
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that no Democrat has won there in over 90 years in the Senate.
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Now,
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occasionally we do have Democratic governors,
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uh,
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that,
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uh,
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are in,
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uh,
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Kansas,
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that's happening,
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and it has happened,
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but.
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Senate,
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really there's no
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way a Democrat can win in Kansas.
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However,
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that's not what the polling is telling us right now.
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Republican turned Democrat
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aims to flip Kansas Senate seat blue for the first time in over 90
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years.
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This race is one that I didn't think I'd be talking about,
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frankly,
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at this point.
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Senator Roger Marshall is the guy who is the incumbent.
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He is going for,
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uh,
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um,
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uh,
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to try to,
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I think it's,
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would it be his 2nd term,
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I believe,
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uh,
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and he was trying to,
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uh,
297
00:06:49.550 --> 00:06:52.490
extend this 90-year run of Republican senators
298
00:06:52.710 --> 00:06:53.840
in the state of Kansas.
299
00:06:54.070 --> 00:06:55.660
His opponent is a guy named,
300
00:06:55.710 --> 00:06:55.880
uh,
301
00:06:56.190 --> 00:06:57.140
Adam Hamilton.
302
00:06:57.510 --> 00:06:58.850
Hamilton is a,
303
00:06:58.870 --> 00:06:59.500
um,
304
00:06:59.750 --> 00:07:00.500
a reverend.
305
00:07:01.260 --> 00:07:02.800
Sort of think of him sort of like a,
306
00:07:02.820 --> 00:07:03.410
uh,
307
00:07:03.460 --> 00:07:03.690
you know,
308
00:07:03.740 --> 00:07:04.400
um,
309
00:07:04.740 --> 00:07:06.560
a woke mega church
310
00:07:06.810 --> 00:07:07.690
sort of pastor,
311
00:07:07.860 --> 00:07:08.010
right?
312
00:07:08.140 --> 00:07:08.280
He,
313
00:07:08.380 --> 00:07:08.570
you know,
314
00:07:08.620 --> 00:07:09.920
it's a very big church,
315
00:07:10.260 --> 00:07:11.600
got a lot of followers to it,
316
00:07:12.100 --> 00:07:12.330
you know,
317
00:07:12.420 --> 00:07:13.890
it's a type of church that does a lot of,
318
00:07:13.980 --> 00:07:14.130
you know,
319
00:07:14.300 --> 00:07:14.450
uh,
320
00:07:14.580 --> 00:07:16.840
sermons about climate change and
321
00:07:16.940 --> 00:07:18.140
diversity and,
322
00:07:18.160 --> 00:07:19.170
and all these things.
323
00:07:19.190 --> 00:07:19.710
They had a,
324
00:07:19.730 --> 00:07:20.040
uh,
325
00:07:20.390 --> 00:07:20.500
Uh,
326
00:07:20.640 --> 00:07:20.670
uh,
327
00:07:20.870 --> 00:07:20.910
you know,
328
00:07:21.190 --> 00:07:22.930
like some LGBT
329
00:07:23.150 --> 00:07:24.980
thing in the church at one point,
330
00:07:25.110 --> 00:07:27.820
and that's been one of the big things that Marshall's tried to highlight,
331
00:07:27.890 --> 00:07:28.030
right?
332
00:07:28.110 --> 00:07:28.180
Like,
333
00:07:28.270 --> 00:07:29.050
look at all these
334
00:07:29.430 --> 00:07:29.660
crazy,
335
00:07:29.790 --> 00:07:31.490
this is this guy Jeremiah Wright or what?
336
00:07:31.510 --> 00:07:31.580
Like,
337
00:07:31.670 --> 00:07:32.540
who is this guy?
338
00:07:32.830 --> 00:07:33.020
Um,
339
00:07:33.190 --> 00:07:34.890
that is what he's tried to do.
340
00:07:35.110 --> 00:07:36.410
And it's interesting because
341
00:07:37.070 --> 00:07:40.530
really a lot of the stuff that Republicans are doing in these races.
342
00:07:41.070 --> 00:07:45.060
Are focused on these cultural sort of approaches to say,
343
00:07:45.140 --> 00:07:45.510
hey,
344
00:07:45.630 --> 00:07:47.470
I mean it's happening certainly in Texas we're gonna
345
00:07:47.470 --> 00:07:49.530
go into that race in a little while as well
346
00:07:49.790 --> 00:07:52.500
where it's every ad about James Tallarico are
347
00:07:52.500 --> 00:07:55.410
the things that he said about God being non-binary
348
00:07:55.630 --> 00:07:58.330
and uh you know there are 6 genders
349
00:07:58.620 --> 00:08:01.330
and and and all those types of attacks.
350
00:08:02.600 --> 00:08:03.800
Those are very
351
00:08:03.940 --> 00:08:05.440
popular positions.
352
00:08:05.860 --> 00:08:06.050
I mean,
353
00:08:06.340 --> 00:08:08.250
particularly in a place like Texas or Kansas,
354
00:08:08.500 --> 00:08:08.750
right?
355
00:08:09.060 --> 00:08:11.460
Nobody in Texas or Kansas really wants their
356
00:08:11.460 --> 00:08:13.340
church talking about climate change every Sunday.
357
00:08:13.490 --> 00:08:13.650
OK?
358
00:08:13.740 --> 00:08:13.930
That's,
359
00:08:13.980 --> 00:08:14.930
that's not really,
360
00:08:15.140 --> 00:08:15.370
I mean,
361
00:08:15.460 --> 00:08:16.130
typically what,
362
00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:16.450
what,
363
00:08:16.580 --> 00:08:18.480
what the average voter wants.
364
00:08:18.660 --> 00:08:19.760
The question is,
365
00:08:20.220 --> 00:08:21.610
when you look at a list of priorities,
366
00:08:21.660 --> 00:08:23.160
and we're gonna go into some polling on this,
367
00:08:23.420 --> 00:08:26.080
you don't find those issues at the top right now.
368
00:08:26.710 --> 00:08:29.630
What people are worried about right now is our gas prices,
369
00:08:29.790 --> 00:08:31.020
our finances,
370
00:08:31.430 --> 00:08:32.059
the economy,
371
00:08:32.190 --> 00:08:33.610
what's going on with my family.
372
00:08:34.110 --> 00:08:34.650
And so
373
00:08:34.870 --> 00:08:37.960
this is a tactic that I think Republicans are using.
374
00:08:38.270 --> 00:08:40.530
They're pushing on these cultural issues because they know
375
00:08:40.909 --> 00:08:41.860
they poll very well.
376
00:08:41.950 --> 00:08:42.140
I mean,
377
00:08:42.230 --> 00:08:45.140
70 and 80% of people agree with them on a lot of these issues,
378
00:08:45.270 --> 00:08:45.740
girls and,
379
00:08:45.830 --> 00:08:45.980
you know,
380
00:08:46.070 --> 00:08:47.810
men and women's sports and all those things.
381
00:08:47.990 --> 00:08:50.100
Those are successful issues.
382
00:08:50.230 --> 00:08:51.950
They've won elections with them previously.
383
00:08:52.210 --> 00:08:52.670
The question is,
384
00:08:52.760 --> 00:08:53.900
are they at the top
385
00:08:54.080 --> 00:08:55.530
of the ballot right now?
386
00:08:55.840 --> 00:08:56.250
Um,
387
00:08:56.680 --> 00:08:57.750
Trump won Kansas,
388
00:08:57.920 --> 00:08:58.190
by the way,
389
00:08:58.240 --> 00:09:00.260
in 2024 by 16 points.
390
00:09:00.520 --> 00:09:00.840
This
391
00:09:00.960 --> 00:09:02.980
should not be a race we're talking about
392
00:09:03.080 --> 00:09:04.710
from the Republican perspective.
393
00:09:04.920 --> 00:09:05.390
However,
394
00:09:05.680 --> 00:09:06.100
according to,
395
00:09:06.200 --> 00:09:06.680
uh,
396
00:09:06.860 --> 00:09:07.500
uh,
397
00:09:07.640 --> 00:09:08.110
um,
398
00:09:08.240 --> 00:09:08.430
uh,
399
00:09:08.560 --> 00:09:09.190
is it AAA?
400
00:09:09.290 --> 00:09:09.390
Yeah,
401
00:09:09.560 --> 00:09:09.870
they have,
402
00:09:09.920 --> 00:09:10.190
uh,
403
00:09:10.400 --> 00:09:11.330
the price of diesel
404
00:09:11.640 --> 00:09:13.150
up 79%.
405
00:09:13.440 --> 00:09:13.920
This is a diesel.
406
00:09:14.260 --> 00:09:15.170
Dependent state.
407
00:09:15.340 --> 00:09:16.920
Obviously a lot of farming going on
408
00:09:17.250 --> 00:09:18.140
in this area,
409
00:09:18.260 --> 00:09:21.080
and it's jumped nearly $1 in the last 30 days.
410
00:09:21.390 --> 00:09:21.490
Uh,
411
00:09:21.830 --> 00:09:21.840
the,
412
00:09:21.860 --> 00:09:24.610
the attacks on Marshall have gone a bunch of different ways.
413
00:09:24.700 --> 00:09:26.880
They've talked about cost of living stuff a lot.
414
00:09:27.180 --> 00:09:29.730
They also are hitting him on the fact that he has a house in Sarasota,
415
00:09:29.860 --> 00:09:30.490
Florida.
416
00:09:30.780 --> 00:09:32.330
They're putting up billboards about this.
417
00:09:33.290 --> 00:09:35.000
I don't know if that's an effective tactic,
418
00:09:35.050 --> 00:09:35.440
frankly.
419
00:09:35.460 --> 00:09:35.640
I mean,
420
00:09:35.730 --> 00:09:36.330
first of all,
421
00:09:36.610 --> 00:09:36.960
the guy,
422
00:09:37.090 --> 00:09:37.240
uh,
423
00:09:37.570 --> 00:09:37.800
uh,
424
00:09:38.050 --> 00:09:38.540
Hamilton,
425
00:09:38.610 --> 00:09:39.320
who is the,
426
00:09:39.490 --> 00:09:40.070
they're calling him,
427
00:09:40.410 --> 00:09:43.960
the attacks on him are like he's the uh woke mega church CEO.
428
00:09:44.370 --> 00:09:44.440
Uh,
429
00:09:44.570 --> 00:09:44.760
you know,
430
00:09:44.890 --> 00:09:46.280
he's a very wealthy guy,
431
00:09:46.410 --> 00:09:48.040
got multiple houses of his own,
432
00:09:48.130 --> 00:09:48.330
uh,
433
00:09:48.490 --> 00:09:49.440
and he's his pastor.
434
00:09:49.530 --> 00:09:49.990
So,
435
00:09:50.370 --> 00:09:51.350
I don't know that
436
00:09:51.530 --> 00:09:54.800
this would be the direction I would choose if I were running the Hamilton campaign,
437
00:09:54.890 --> 00:09:55.680
but they're trying to say,
438
00:09:55.830 --> 00:09:56.210
hey,
439
00:09:56.410 --> 00:09:56.560
you know,
440
00:09:56.650 --> 00:09:57.280
Roger Marshall,
441
00:09:57.370 --> 00:09:59.040
he likes Florida better than he likes Kansas.
442
00:09:59.090 --> 00:10:00.030
He's got a house there.
443
00:10:00.220 --> 00:10:00.360
Now,
444
00:10:00.450 --> 00:10:01.440
as Marshall has pointed out,
445
00:10:01.570 --> 00:10:03.620
his house was damaged in a hurricane,
446
00:10:03.690 --> 00:10:05.310
and he hasn't been able to really
447
00:10:05.600 --> 00:10:06.720
live in the house at all,
448
00:10:06.850 --> 00:10:08.880
even for vacations in multiple years.
449
00:10:09.170 --> 00:10:09.220
Uh,
450
00:10:09.370 --> 00:10:09.650
but,
451
00:10:10.030 --> 00:10:10.450
Again,
452
00:10:10.870 --> 00:10:11.120
you know,
453
00:10:11.280 --> 00:10:13.330
this is a campaign and people just say things,
454
00:10:13.590 --> 00:10:13.690
uh,
455
00:10:13.790 --> 00:10:13.980
that's,
456
00:10:14.030 --> 00:10:14.260
you know,
457
00:10:14.430 --> 00:10:15.190
whether that works or not,
458
00:10:15.230 --> 00:10:15.700
I just don't,
459
00:10:15.790 --> 00:10:16.330
I don't know.
460
00:10:16.400 --> 00:10:16.920
Um,
461
00:10:17.270 --> 00:10:18.650
they did have a debate which was,
462
00:10:18.950 --> 00:10:19.100
um,
463
00:10:19.270 --> 00:10:21.130
I would say a major mistake by the,
464
00:10:21.230 --> 00:10:21.540
uh,
465
00:10:21.790 --> 00:10:21.900
uh,
466
00:10:22.030 --> 00:10:22.490
Marshall
467
00:10:22.590 --> 00:10:22.820
campaign,
468
00:10:22.910 --> 00:10:24.470
which was to allow this debate to happen
469
00:10:24.750 --> 00:10:25.820
at the state fair
470
00:10:25.980 --> 00:10:27.540
with like a raucous crowd
471
00:10:27.750 --> 00:10:32.540
and a crowd very much determined to shout down Marshall at everything that he said,
472
00:10:32.830 --> 00:10:33.060
um,
473
00:10:33.230 --> 00:10:33.500
you know,
474
00:10:33.670 --> 00:10:34.870
obviously lots of organized,
475
00:10:34.980 --> 00:10:35.150
I mean,
476
00:10:35.200 --> 00:10:35.300
look,
477
00:10:35.350 --> 00:10:37.380
the Democrats organized better and like that's part of,
478
00:10:37.630 --> 00:10:38.410
part of what this is.
479
00:10:39.230 --> 00:10:39.500
You know,
480
00:10:39.740 --> 00:10:42.490
it's one of those things where we can all wish we had a,
481
00:10:42.670 --> 00:10:44.770
a wonderful conversation
482
00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:46.090
about policies
483
00:10:46.220 --> 00:10:47.930
and everyone made rational decisions.
484
00:10:48.170 --> 00:10:49.060
I got news for you.
485
00:10:49.150 --> 00:10:50.340
It's 2026 in America.
486
00:10:50.470 --> 00:10:51.300
That's not what's happening.
487
00:10:51.470 --> 00:10:52.690
Social media exists.
488
00:10:53.670 --> 00:10:54.460
This is not,
489
00:10:54.590 --> 00:10:56.780
this is not the Lincoln-Douglas debates anymore.
490
00:10:56.910 --> 00:10:57.060
OK,
491
00:10:57.150 --> 00:10:58.810
what we're seeing here is a bunch of people
492
00:10:58.830 --> 00:11:02.210
with a lot of emotional reactions to particular policies
493
00:11:02.500 --> 00:11:02.970
and then
494
00:11:03.270 --> 00:11:05.710
certain things behind the scenes that actually are real.
495
00:11:07.390 --> 00:11:07.660
That's,
496
00:11:07.750 --> 00:11:10.120
this is not brand new in 2026 by any means,
497
00:11:10.310 --> 00:11:11.150
but it is getting worse,
498
00:11:11.270 --> 00:11:11.930
I would argue.
499
00:11:12.310 --> 00:11:12.420
Uh,
500
00:11:12.590 --> 00:11:14.020
so that is that race right now.
501
00:11:14.110 --> 00:11:15.560
Here's what the markets look like.
502
00:11:15.590 --> 00:11:16.140
And honestly,
503
00:11:16.230 --> 00:11:17.370
this was a race that
504
00:11:17.550 --> 00:11:17.700
for,
505
00:11:17.790 --> 00:11:19.030
I have a position in this race,
506
00:11:19.110 --> 00:11:19.490
which is,
507
00:11:19.590 --> 00:11:19.740
uh,
508
00:11:20.230 --> 00:11:21.140
for Roger Marshall.
509
00:11:21.230 --> 00:11:22.190
I looked at this and thought,
510
00:11:22.390 --> 00:11:23.650
this is a really good
511
00:11:24.180 --> 00:11:24.770
opportunity
512
00:11:24.870 --> 00:11:26.510
to take a bright red state.
513
00:11:26.750 --> 00:11:28.280
You can't possibly lose a state.
514
00:11:28.310 --> 00:11:29.450
It's been 90 years,
515
00:11:29.630 --> 00:11:30.010
right?
516
00:11:31.240 --> 00:11:33.830
You can't possibly lose in this particular state,
517
00:11:33.960 --> 00:11:34.360
right?
518
00:11:34.810 --> 00:11:34.950
Well,
519
00:11:35.160 --> 00:11:35.300
uh,
520
00:11:35.360 --> 00:11:36.070
that was my theory,
521
00:11:36.280 --> 00:11:36.580
and,
522
00:11:36.600 --> 00:11:36.710
uh,
523
00:11:36.800 --> 00:11:38.820
so far I am down on that position.
524
00:11:39.040 --> 00:11:40.700
I have not sold that position.
525
00:11:40.880 --> 00:11:43.050
I am worried about adding to it because of,
526
00:11:43.160 --> 00:11:44.110
as I've mentioned before,
527
00:11:44.200 --> 00:11:44.330
there,
528
00:11:44.400 --> 00:11:47.060
there's the two areas where I'm worried about adding.
529
00:11:47.640 --> 00:11:50.270
One in states that are fuel and diesel dependent.
530
00:11:51.110 --> 00:11:53.160
Worried about adding to Republican positions there.
531
00:11:53.500 --> 00:11:56.690
Worried about adding to Republican positions in younger,
532
00:11:57.070 --> 00:11:58.250
more Hispanic
533
00:11:58.470 --> 00:11:59.250
states as well.
534
00:11:59.550 --> 00:12:00.300
Those two areas,
535
00:12:00.390 --> 00:12:00.540
I mean,
536
00:12:00.670 --> 00:12:01.140
Texas is,
537
00:12:01.190 --> 00:12:02.420
is a good example of this.
538
00:12:02.590 --> 00:12:03.160
I've got a,
539
00:12:03.590 --> 00:12:05.140
a small position on Paxton,
540
00:12:05.270 --> 00:12:06.810
but a much larger position on Abbott,
541
00:12:07.030 --> 00:12:07.100
uh,
542
00:12:07.470 --> 00:12:08.550
the governor in the state,
543
00:12:08.870 --> 00:12:08.920
uh,
544
00:12:09.110 --> 00:12:09.410
but.
545
00:12:10.140 --> 00:12:10.330
You know,
546
00:12:10.500 --> 00:12:10.840
look
547
00:12:11.680 --> 00:12:12.860
There's reason to be nervous
548
00:12:13.080 --> 00:12:14.420
with those particular
549
00:12:14.640 --> 00:12:15.230
areas.
550
00:12:16.360 --> 00:12:16.580
Um,
551
00:12:16.720 --> 00:12:17.900
the predictable Senate board right now,
552
00:12:17.920 --> 00:12:19.070
just to show you where this is,
553
00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:19.550
I think this,
554
00:12:19.640 --> 00:12:20.550
I think this has been updated.
555
00:12:20.600 --> 00:12:20.980
I think I,
556
00:12:21.080 --> 00:12:22.150
I sent in an update the other day.
557
00:12:22.210 --> 00:12:23.420
I don't know if they've updated it yet.
558
00:12:23.520 --> 00:12:24.070
Uh.
559
00:12:25.020 --> 00:12:25.130
Yeah,
560
00:12:25.380 --> 00:12:27.800
you could see Kansas now as a lean Republican,
561
00:12:28.150 --> 00:12:28.160
uh,
562
00:12:28.300 --> 00:12:30.040
as opposed to a likely Republican.
563
00:12:30.400 --> 00:12:30.610
Um,
564
00:12:30.940 --> 00:12:33.690
there's a couple of changes I did have in here.
565
00:12:34.160 --> 00:12:34.230
Uh,
566
00:12:34.320 --> 00:12:34.390
I,
567
00:12:34.560 --> 00:12:34.680
you know,
568
00:12:34.790 --> 00:12:36.390
Minnesota is an interesting one too.
569
00:12:36.520 --> 00:12:37.920
Maybe we'll get into a little bit later.
570
00:12:38.080 --> 00:12:38.470
The new,
571
00:12:38.640 --> 00:12:38.980
um,
572
00:12:39.360 --> 00:12:40.670
predictable midterm consensus,
573
00:12:40.720 --> 00:12:41.470
we don't have to bring this up,
574
00:12:41.560 --> 00:12:41.750
Adam,
575
00:12:41.840 --> 00:12:42.060
but
576
00:12:42.210 --> 00:12:42.790
the PMC,
577
00:12:42.840 --> 00:12:44.210
which is my election model,
578
00:12:44.520 --> 00:12:44.950
uh,
579
00:12:45.640 --> 00:12:47.550
looks at this Tafoya Flanagan race.
580
00:12:47.600 --> 00:12:49.110
There's been good polling for Tafoya.
581
00:12:49.180 --> 00:12:50.390
She's very competitive there.
582
00:12:50.460 --> 00:12:51.780
I think I need to move that one from
583
00:12:51.960 --> 00:12:52.630
likely Democrat.
584
00:12:52.690 --> 00:12:53.710
I can do that here as we're doing it,
585
00:12:53.760 --> 00:12:55.270
likely Democrat to lean Democrat.
586
00:12:55.660 --> 00:12:55.880
Um,
587
00:12:56.010 --> 00:12:56.160
in,
588
00:12:56.260 --> 00:12:56.360
uh,
589
00:12:56.510 --> 00:12:57.450
in that particular state,
590
00:12:57.650 --> 00:12:57.770
um,
591
00:12:57.890 --> 00:13:00.570
and what you just so you know this is a free resource for you.
592
00:13:00.650 --> 00:13:02.720
You could play with the Senate board if you scroll up
593
00:13:02.720 --> 00:13:04.760
a little bit you can see the control of the Senate,
594
00:13:04.930 --> 00:13:04.950
uh,
595
00:13:04.970 --> 00:13:08.590
4949 with two toss-ups is where I have that right now.
596
00:13:08.850 --> 00:13:10.310
You can drag this around however you like.
597
00:13:10.720 --> 00:13:10.800
Uh,
598
00:13:10.990 --> 00:13:13.550
play with the results and there's a share feature there.
599
00:13:13.630 --> 00:13:14.750
We can share that to social media,
600
00:13:14.840 --> 00:13:15.230
to your friends,
601
00:13:15.280 --> 00:13:15.870
or whatever you want.
602
00:13:15.960 --> 00:13:16.270
So that's,
603
00:13:16.290 --> 00:13:16.390
uh,
604
00:13:16.480 --> 00:13:18.710
up there at predictableshow.com.
605
00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:19.070
Now,
606
00:13:19.280 --> 00:13:21.280
new polling is out on these big issues that matter.
607
00:13:21.350 --> 00:13:22.380
I wanna go through this quickly.
608
00:13:22.520 --> 00:13:22.590
Uh,
609
00:13:22.680 --> 00:13:24.180
I don't wanna spend too much time on it because,
610
00:13:24.520 --> 00:13:24.710
you know,
611
00:13:24.790 --> 00:13:26.240
we're somewhat repetitive on these polls.
612
00:13:26.320 --> 00:13:27.020
They are showing
613
00:13:27.280 --> 00:13:30.080
identifiable problems for Republicans over and over and over again.
614
00:13:30.940 --> 00:13:31.600
That's the summary.
615
00:13:31.680 --> 00:13:31.730
Uh,
616
00:13:31.820 --> 00:13:32.140
most
617
00:13:32.540 --> 00:13:34.480
Americans blame Trump for high prices
618
00:13:34.620 --> 00:13:35.710
as midterms approach.
619
00:13:35.860 --> 00:13:37.300
A new AP NORC
620
00:13:37.460 --> 00:13:37.960
poll,
621
00:13:38.180 --> 00:13:38.220
uh,
622
00:13:38.450 --> 00:13:39.970
shows you could say you don't believe in polling.
623
00:13:40.050 --> 00:13:40.550
That's fine.
624
00:13:40.780 --> 00:13:41.010
In fact,
625
00:13:41.100 --> 00:13:41.890
if you don't believe in polling,
626
00:13:41.940 --> 00:13:44.610
you can make tons and tons of money by saying all the Democrats are
627
00:13:44.610 --> 00:13:47.760
gonna lose on Calci or poly market or predicted or wherever you wanna go,
628
00:13:48.060 --> 00:13:48.360
so.
629
00:13:49.110 --> 00:13:52.260
No longer are we at this place where you can just kind of say things and say,
630
00:13:52.310 --> 00:13:52.460
oh,
631
00:13:52.510 --> 00:13:52.650
well,
632
00:13:52.670 --> 00:13:52.980
all this,
633
00:13:53.030 --> 00:13:54.210
all that polling's BS.
634
00:13:54.310 --> 00:13:54.580
Uh,
635
00:13:54.780 --> 00:13:54.920
look,
636
00:13:54.990 --> 00:13:55.960
if you think it's BS,
637
00:13:56.270 --> 00:13:57.210
get rich.
638
00:13:57.910 --> 00:14:00.380
Go out there and don't worry about your own personal economy
639
00:14:00.380 --> 00:14:02.130
because you're probably gonna win lots and lots of money.
640
00:14:02.230 --> 00:14:03.570
They may very well be wrong,
641
00:14:03.710 --> 00:14:06.180
and I always price in a significant polling
642
00:14:06.180 --> 00:14:08.490
error when I'm looking at prediction market positions because
643
00:14:08.710 --> 00:14:09.690
I don't trust them
644
00:14:09.830 --> 00:14:11.330
as surgical instruments.
645
00:14:11.450 --> 00:14:12.460
They are blunt instruments.
646
00:14:12.910 --> 00:14:14.500
They tell you general themes.
647
00:14:14.710 --> 00:14:15.670
They don't tell you
648
00:14:16.020 --> 00:14:17.260
very specific things like,
649
00:14:17.350 --> 00:14:17.500
hey,
650
00:14:17.550 --> 00:14:19.260
who's gonna win in the 51-49 race?
651
00:14:19.300 --> 00:14:20.060
They're not good at that.
652
00:14:20.270 --> 00:14:21.140
They're just not good at that.
653
00:14:21.310 --> 00:14:23.060
What they're good at is telling you general themes.
654
00:14:23.110 --> 00:14:25.220
Here are some themes in the most recent polling.
655
00:14:25.430 --> 00:14:25.580
Uh,
656
00:14:26.030 --> 00:14:28.610
do you approve on Donald Trump on cost issues,
657
00:14:28.870 --> 00:14:29.020
um,
658
00:14:29.190 --> 00:14:29.260
uh,
659
00:14:29.430 --> 00:14:30.580
and other issues as well?
660
00:14:30.710 --> 00:14:32.410
Most popular thing for Donald Trump,
661
00:14:32.630 --> 00:14:33.570
border security.
662
00:14:33.790 --> 00:14:34.020
He's,
663
00:14:34.040 --> 00:14:34.080
uh,
664
00:14:34.280 --> 00:14:36.420
still around fifty-fifty on border security.
665
00:14:36.790 --> 00:14:36.870
Uh,
666
00:14:37.000 --> 00:14:38.720
but you see obviously massive
667
00:14:39.470 --> 00:14:41.420
diversity between Republicans and Democrats,
668
00:14:41.510 --> 00:14:41.700
you know,
669
00:14:41.790 --> 00:14:43.470
about 90% approval for Republicans,
670
00:14:43.590 --> 00:14:43.770
about.
671
00:14:44.070 --> 00:14:44.210
You know,
672
00:14:44.300 --> 00:14:45.970
18% approval for Democrats.
673
00:14:46.220 --> 00:14:46.240
Uh,
674
00:14:46.340 --> 00:14:48.990
immigration again a more popular issue but still
675
00:14:49.100 --> 00:14:50.010
under 40%,
676
00:14:50.140 --> 00:14:51.170
so 39%,
677
00:14:51.490 --> 00:14:51.500
uh,
678
00:14:51.580 --> 00:14:53.370
for Trump approval rating overall.
679
00:14:53.560 --> 00:14:54.650
Climate change is in the,
680
00:14:54.740 --> 00:14:54.930
you know,
681
00:14:55.060 --> 00:14:55.850
mid-thirties.
682
00:14:56.140 --> 00:14:56.330
Uh,
683
00:14:56.580 --> 00:14:57.050
trade
684
00:14:57.290 --> 00:14:58.330
is lower than that,
685
00:14:58.540 --> 00:14:58.770
you know,
686
00:14:58.860 --> 00:15:00.490
we're starting to get into the negative territory here,
687
00:15:00.620 --> 00:15:01.700
about 30%.
688
00:15:02.020 --> 00:15:02.460
AI,
689
00:15:02.540 --> 00:15:02.770
he's.
690
00:15:02.950 --> 00:15:04.620
About 30% as well approval.
691
00:15:04.670 --> 00:15:07.970
That's one that's you could see real drop off for Republican
692
00:15:08.210 --> 00:15:08.810
supporters
693
00:15:08.960 --> 00:15:11.380
and a little bit more popular for his opinion
694
00:15:11.750 --> 00:15:13.220
from Democrats on that issue.
695
00:15:13.440 --> 00:15:16.090
Iran very unpopular in the high twenties.
696
00:15:16.390 --> 00:15:19.580
The economy overall at 25%.
697
00:15:20.260 --> 00:15:20.950
That's tough.
698
00:15:21.140 --> 00:15:22.330
And the cost of living
699
00:15:22.480 --> 00:15:24.340
is at like 17% approval.
700
00:15:24.460 --> 00:15:24.570
I mean,
701
00:15:24.620 --> 00:15:27.120
he's under 40% among Republicans
702
00:15:27.300 --> 00:15:28.330
on the cost of living,
703
00:15:28.540 --> 00:15:29.280
and that is
704
00:15:29.420 --> 00:15:30.160
at the top
705
00:15:30.260 --> 00:15:31.640
of what people are talking about.
706
00:15:31.790 --> 00:15:31.970
Um,
707
00:15:32.100 --> 00:15:32.370
this is,
708
00:15:32.390 --> 00:15:32.530
uh,
709
00:15:32.580 --> 00:15:34.570
the economic numbers overall,
710
00:15:34.660 --> 00:15:35.670
as I just mentioned,
711
00:15:35.900 --> 00:15:37.590
disapproval of Trump at 20,
712
00:15:37.980 --> 00:15:38.290
excuse me,
713
00:15:38.340 --> 00:15:39.810
approval only at 26%,
714
00:15:39.900 --> 00:15:40.690
disapproval.
715
00:15:40.910 --> 00:15:41.020
Uh,
716
00:15:41.150 --> 00:15:42.290
way up in the 70s,
717
00:15:42.510 --> 00:15:43.100
not great,
718
00:15:43.390 --> 00:15:44.580
not great going into election.
719
00:15:44.790 --> 00:15:46.840
Couple of other ones here before we take a break.
720
00:15:47.090 --> 00:15:49.500
6 in 10 adults say the national economy and the country
721
00:15:49.500 --> 00:15:52.770
as a whole are worse off since President Trump took office
722
00:15:52.980 --> 00:15:54.340
again in 2025.
723
00:15:54.630 --> 00:15:55.490
National economy
724
00:15:55.590 --> 00:15:56.030
worse off,
725
00:15:56.110 --> 00:15:57.020
61%.
726
00:15:57.290 --> 00:15:57.910
Country as a whole,
727
00:15:58.020 --> 00:15:58.900
60%.
728
00:15:59.070 --> 00:16:00.380
The economy in the local area,
729
00:16:00.430 --> 00:16:01.530
55%,
730
00:16:01.870 --> 00:16:03.900
and uh you and your family 46%.
731
00:16:03.990 --> 00:16:05.250
This is a bit revealing
732
00:16:05.550 --> 00:16:06.050
in that
733
00:16:06.350 --> 00:16:08.820
the best number here is you and your family.
734
00:16:09.590 --> 00:16:11.930
And the reason for that is because
735
00:16:12.630 --> 00:16:14.230
some of this stuff is overblown.
736
00:16:14.810 --> 00:16:16.140
It's not overblown overall.
737
00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:17.630
There are definitely people struggling.
738
00:16:17.670 --> 00:16:19.620
I don't wanna make light of that by any means.
739
00:16:19.670 --> 00:16:22.610
It's a real issue and it's a real issue Republicans have to deal with.
740
00:16:22.830 --> 00:16:24.050
But a lot of times what you see in this,
741
00:16:24.150 --> 00:16:25.460
in this polling is like people saying,
742
00:16:25.550 --> 00:16:25.660
well,
743
00:16:25.750 --> 00:16:26.380
I'm doing OK,
744
00:16:26.470 --> 00:16:27.850
but I'm worried about everybody else.
745
00:16:28.030 --> 00:16:29.580
That's a good instinct for Americans,
746
00:16:29.670 --> 00:16:31.890
but at times I think we struggle to judge that.
747
00:16:32.410 --> 00:16:34.730
We do see high prices and worry about other
748
00:16:34.850 --> 00:16:36.800
people more than we're worrying about ourselves.
749
00:16:37.010 --> 00:16:38.370
That's a good instinct and a good,
750
00:16:38.420 --> 00:16:38.930
uh,
751
00:16:39.170 --> 00:16:40.070
for a good person,
752
00:16:40.380 --> 00:16:40.440
uh,
753
00:16:40.530 --> 00:16:41.190
but also
754
00:16:41.490 --> 00:16:42.490
sometimes it gives us a little bit of
755
00:16:42.490 --> 00:16:44.330
a misleading idea of what's actually happening.
756
00:16:44.370 --> 00:16:46.180
If everyone kind of has a more positive
757
00:16:46.410 --> 00:16:47.470
opinion of their own situation,
758
00:16:47.620 --> 00:16:49.750
maybe it is a slightly more positive situation
759
00:16:49.930 --> 00:16:51.290
than the media is portraying,
760
00:16:51.490 --> 00:16:51.760
um,
761
00:16:51.930 --> 00:16:52.200
and,
762
00:16:52.270 --> 00:16:52.850
uh,
763
00:16:53.050 --> 00:16:54.050
that's about all we have time for,
764
00:16:54.090 --> 00:16:54.330
I think,
765
00:16:54.350 --> 00:16:54.680
on that one.
766
00:16:54.730 --> 00:16:55.670
So let me give you the market here.
767
00:16:55.690 --> 00:16:56.440
This is an interesting one,
768
00:16:56.460 --> 00:16:56.800
and by the way,
769
00:16:56.850 --> 00:16:57.520
I don't think there's,
770
00:16:57.570 --> 00:16:58.320
this is an easy one,
771
00:16:58.410 --> 00:16:58.880
I think.
772
00:16:59.250 --> 00:16:59.440
Um,
773
00:16:59.570 --> 00:17:02.080
this is which issues matter most to voters.
774
00:17:02.130 --> 00:17:03.040
The way they measure this,
775
00:17:03.090 --> 00:17:04.040
this is a Kalshi
776
00:17:04.210 --> 00:17:04.770
market,
777
00:17:05.060 --> 00:17:06.839
is basically they're gonna do this big poll
778
00:17:06.839 --> 00:17:08.960
and release the exit polls after the election.
779
00:17:09.130 --> 00:17:11.119
This is asking you about the election polls,
780
00:17:11.210 --> 00:17:13.470
not necessarily what you think the answer is,
781
00:17:13.730 --> 00:17:13.880
um,
782
00:17:14.050 --> 00:17:16.319
and what will be the biggest issue that matters
783
00:17:16.319 --> 00:17:17.839
most is the economy and cost of living,
784
00:17:18.050 --> 00:17:19.480
a 94% chance.
785
00:17:19.609 --> 00:17:20.400
Iran is second.
786
00:17:20.460 --> 00:17:21.609
I don't think there's any chance
787
00:17:22.170 --> 00:17:23.069
with the exception of like
788
00:17:23.280 --> 00:17:23.960
Iran.
789
00:17:24.540 --> 00:17:26.400
Succeeds on a terrorist attack that kills a
790
00:17:26.400 --> 00:17:28.600
bunch of Americans or something before the midterms.
791
00:17:28.770 --> 00:17:31.060
I don't think Iran has much of a chance at all
792
00:17:31.270 --> 00:17:31.640
of that,
793
00:17:31.770 --> 00:17:31.780
uh,
794
00:17:32.050 --> 00:17:33.160
being the number one case.
795
00:17:33.240 --> 00:17:34.070
And if you scroll down,
796
00:17:34.090 --> 00:17:36.080
you see the other stuff in there and abortion,
797
00:17:36.130 --> 00:17:37.230
like there's no chance of abortion,
798
00:17:37.570 --> 00:17:37.830
crime,
799
00:17:38.050 --> 00:17:38.060
uh,
800
00:17:38.300 --> 00:17:39.200
none of these have any chance.
801
00:17:39.290 --> 00:17:39.830
It's gonna be
802
00:17:39.940 --> 00:17:40.840
right now it's at 94.
803
00:17:41.050 --> 00:17:42.730
I can't imagine it's anything else other than,
804
00:17:42.980 --> 00:17:43.020
uh,
805
00:17:43.210 --> 00:17:44.160
economy and cost of living.
806
00:17:44.470 --> 00:17:47.930
Even when there are other big issues that we talk about that tends to overperform.
807
00:17:48.060 --> 00:17:48.180
All right,
808
00:17:48.260 --> 00:17:50.880
gotta take a break and I'm gonna come back with our candidate of the day.
809
00:17:51.020 --> 00:17:51.810
We go to another state.
810
00:17:51.930 --> 00:17:52.730
It used to be the biggest,
811
00:17:52.900 --> 00:17:54.460
the swingiest state in the,
812
00:17:54.480 --> 00:17:55.360
in the country.
813
00:17:55.620 --> 00:17:56.090
Now,
814
00:17:56.180 --> 00:17:56.770
not so much,
815
00:17:56.820 --> 00:17:57.800
but can Democrats
816
00:17:57.900 --> 00:17:58.630
have a shot
817
00:17:58.740 --> 00:17:59.600
in Florida?
818
00:17:59.740 --> 00:18:00.730
We'll talk about that next.
819
00:18:20.570 --> 00:18:22.750
Welcome back to Predictable
820
00:18:22.930 --> 00:18:23.800
with Stu.
821
00:18:23.890 --> 00:18:25.670
We have so much to get to today.
822
00:18:25.810 --> 00:18:26.860
And one of the candidates,
823
00:18:26.970 --> 00:18:27.090
uh,
824
00:18:27.290 --> 00:18:29.850
one of the sections that we do all the time is candidate countdown.
825
00:18:30.130 --> 00:18:30.240
Uh,
826
00:18:30.370 --> 00:18:31.840
we take 11,
827
00:18:31.990 --> 00:18:32.790
just one entry
828
00:18:32.910 --> 00:18:34.070
off of my,
829
00:18:34.290 --> 00:18:34.880
uh,
830
00:18:35.530 --> 00:18:37.560
list of picks at predictableShow.com.
831
00:18:37.650 --> 00:18:38.930
If you're a premium subscriber,
832
00:18:39.330 --> 00:18:41.440
you get access kind of just like my portfolio,
833
00:18:41.730 --> 00:18:42.440
everything that I have,
834
00:18:42.530 --> 00:18:43.240
you can see it,
835
00:18:43.330 --> 00:18:45.160
you can make fun of it if you think it's terrible.
836
00:18:45.580 --> 00:18:45.720
Uh,
837
00:18:45.860 --> 00:18:47.330
you can hopefully profit along with me.
838
00:18:47.500 --> 00:18:49.770
Many of you have done so during the primaries,
839
00:18:49.820 --> 00:18:50.960
and we had a great run,
840
00:18:51.180 --> 00:18:51.210
uh,
841
00:18:51.300 --> 00:18:51.850
during the primaries,
842
00:18:51.870 --> 00:18:52.960
and I think we've got a great,
843
00:18:53.230 --> 00:18:53.280
uh,
844
00:18:53.460 --> 00:18:54.720
list of positions right now
845
00:18:55.140 --> 00:18:58.050
for this particular election as we get closer.
846
00:18:58.420 --> 00:18:58.880
Um,
847
00:18:59.220 --> 00:19:00.610
it has been an interesting one because we
848
00:19:00.610 --> 00:19:02.330
do this thing where we do candidate countdown.
849
00:19:02.380 --> 00:19:03.320
I'm just taking
850
00:19:03.420 --> 00:19:04.560
positions that I have.
851
00:19:04.740 --> 00:19:06.010
If you're a premium subscriber,
852
00:19:06.060 --> 00:19:06.580
you see them all,
853
00:19:06.660 --> 00:19:07.400
but we're doing,
854
00:19:07.500 --> 00:19:07.610
you know,
855
00:19:07.700 --> 00:19:10.280
we don't have time to go through obviously 350 positions.
856
00:19:10.680 --> 00:19:11.350
On the show,
857
00:19:11.600 --> 00:19:12.700
so we're gonna go through,
858
00:19:12.800 --> 00:19:13.030
uh,
859
00:19:13.280 --> 00:19:15.480
one at a time and kind of walk you through
860
00:19:15.720 --> 00:19:18.190
my thinking as to why I took this position,
861
00:19:18.600 --> 00:19:20.460
what the outlook for me is,
862
00:19:20.960 --> 00:19:21.340
and,
863
00:19:21.760 --> 00:19:21.940
you know,
864
00:19:22.000 --> 00:19:23.990
over the past couple of weeks as we've talked about the,
865
00:19:24.120 --> 00:19:24.270
you know,
866
00:19:24.320 --> 00:19:26.540
the potential for some big Democratic wave.
867
00:19:28.630 --> 00:19:31.130
I've tried to position myself mostly,
868
00:19:31.580 --> 00:19:31.980
uh,
869
00:19:32.150 --> 00:19:32.640
taking
870
00:19:33.030 --> 00:19:36.490
a little bit more aggressive positions on the blue side of things,
871
00:19:36.710 --> 00:19:37.400
and a little,
872
00:19:37.510 --> 00:19:38.950
a little bit fewer on the red side,
873
00:19:38.990 --> 00:19:39.000
and,
874
00:19:39.030 --> 00:19:41.680
and particularly fewer on the red side
875
00:19:41.900 --> 00:19:45.010
when it comes to states that have been highly affected by
876
00:19:45.280 --> 00:19:46.690
gas and diesel prices.
877
00:19:46.720 --> 00:19:46.980
Um,
878
00:19:47.230 --> 00:19:47.420
you know,
879
00:19:47.520 --> 00:19:47.620
uh,
880
00:19:47.760 --> 00:19:49.220
Alaska's a good example of that,
881
00:19:49.470 --> 00:19:49.540
uh,
882
00:19:49.590 --> 00:19:50.410
the middle of the country,
883
00:19:50.630 --> 00:19:50.700
uh,
884
00:19:50.790 --> 00:19:52.060
there's a decent amount of that as well.
885
00:19:52.720 --> 00:19:52.830
Uh,
886
00:19:52.960 --> 00:19:53.870
when I'm looking for a candidate,
887
00:19:53.960 --> 00:19:55.350
I'm trying to find one that A,
888
00:19:55.720 --> 00:19:55.790
uh,
889
00:19:55.920 --> 00:19:55.990
uh,
890
00:19:56.120 --> 00:19:57.220
I feel really good about.
891
00:19:57.680 --> 00:19:58.130
B,
892
00:19:58.600 --> 00:20:00.710
I think there's some value there.
893
00:20:00.810 --> 00:20:01.230
Remember,
894
00:20:01.480 --> 00:20:01.670
you know,
895
00:20:01.920 --> 00:20:02.410
sometimes
896
00:20:02.680 --> 00:20:05.530
I'll take a position where I'm not even sure they're gonna win,
897
00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:07.430
but I think there's value in the position.
898
00:20:07.480 --> 00:20:08.590
The Susan Collins one is,
899
00:20:08.680 --> 00:20:11.020
is one recently that I've highlighted that is like that,
900
00:20:11.240 --> 00:20:12.890
where Susan Collins was at 30%,
901
00:20:13.280 --> 00:20:13.350
uh,
902
00:20:13.440 --> 00:20:14.710
30% chance to win.
903
00:20:15.190 --> 00:20:17.060
I thought she really has like a basically,
904
00:20:17.470 --> 00:20:17.620
you know,
905
00:20:17.710 --> 00:20:19.080
48% chance to win,
906
00:20:19.110 --> 00:20:20.610
maybe the slightest of underdogs,
907
00:20:20.910 --> 00:20:21.020
uh,
908
00:20:21.110 --> 00:20:22.340
just because of the climate out there,
909
00:20:22.470 --> 00:20:22.580
uh,
910
00:20:23.110 --> 00:20:23.300
for,
911
00:20:23.390 --> 00:20:24.690
for Republican candidates.
912
00:20:25.030 --> 00:20:25.530
And
913
00:20:26.110 --> 00:20:28.570
even though I think I'm not like sure she's gonna win that race,
914
00:20:28.630 --> 00:20:30.330
I think there's really good value there.
915
00:20:30.670 --> 00:20:30.930
Uh,
916
00:20:31.390 --> 00:20:31.730
and
917
00:20:31.860 --> 00:20:32.650
I,
918
00:20:33.150 --> 00:20:34.100
I generally speaking,
919
00:20:34.150 --> 00:20:35.610
I've been trying to
920
00:20:35.750 --> 00:20:39.050
put myself in a position where I'm not overdosing on too
921
00:20:39.070 --> 00:20:41.860
much Republican stuff just in case the worst case scenario happens.
922
00:20:43.880 --> 00:20:45.870
I made a couple of exceptions to that.
923
00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:47.410
And today's candidate,
924
00:20:47.520 --> 00:20:47.590
uh,
925
00:20:47.760 --> 00:20:48.670
countdown candidate,
926
00:20:48.690 --> 00:20:49.630
the day is,
927
00:20:50.240 --> 00:20:50.350
well,
928
00:20:50.460 --> 00:20:51.390
it's sort of like that.
929
00:20:51.480 --> 00:20:53.350
There's 33 days left until
930
00:20:53.560 --> 00:20:54.790
the midterm election.
931
00:20:55.480 --> 00:20:59.300
And today's candidate countdown candidate of the day is
932
00:21:00.000 --> 00:21:01.380
David Jolly
933
00:21:01.800 --> 00:21:02.830
from Florida.
934
00:21:04.390 --> 00:21:06.730
More specifically than no position.
935
00:21:07.520 --> 00:21:08.190
Uh,
936
00:21:08.680 --> 00:21:09.920
David Jolly from Florida.
937
00:21:10.050 --> 00:21:10.430
Now you might say,
938
00:21:10.520 --> 00:21:10.550
well,
939
00:21:10.640 --> 00:21:10.910
wait a minute,
940
00:21:10.970 --> 00:21:13.290
isn't David Jolly running for governor of Florida
941
00:21:13.560 --> 00:21:15.150
against a Republican Byron Donalds?
942
00:21:15.200 --> 00:21:16.820
Why didn't you just take the yes position
943
00:21:17.080 --> 00:21:17.710
on that?
944
00:21:17.960 --> 00:21:18.550
And of course,
945
00:21:18.760 --> 00:21:19.690
the reason
946
00:21:19.870 --> 00:21:21.700
why I did not take the yes position
947
00:21:21.840 --> 00:21:22.720
on Donald's and then,
948
00:21:22.800 --> 00:21:24.440
and instead took the no position on,
949
00:21:24.560 --> 00:21:25.340
on Jolly
950
00:21:25.560 --> 00:21:26.820
is because of the curse
951
00:21:26.960 --> 00:21:28.190
of the candidate countdown.
952
00:21:42.700 --> 00:21:42.930
Yes,
953
00:21:43.060 --> 00:21:43.770
it's been true,
954
00:21:43.860 --> 00:21:43.970
uh,
955
00:21:44.220 --> 00:21:47.580
several times we've featured people on this and then their candidacy has
956
00:21:47.780 --> 00:21:49.570
gone awry almost immediately.
957
00:21:49.700 --> 00:21:52.400
So now we're just trying to play with it and see if we can,
958
00:21:52.940 --> 00:21:54.850
if we can affect these races in the best way possible.
959
00:21:54.940 --> 00:21:56.310
But I will say the candidate,
960
00:21:56.420 --> 00:21:56.750
uh,
961
00:21:57.040 --> 00:21:57.570
jolly,
962
00:21:57.730 --> 00:21:57.890
uh,
963
00:21:58.060 --> 00:21:59.210
and his no position,
964
00:21:59.420 --> 00:22:00.480
let's just talk about it
965
00:22:00.660 --> 00:22:02.810
as a Byron Donald's yes position.
966
00:22:03.380 --> 00:22:05.080
The reason why I made this
967
00:22:05.330 --> 00:22:06.250
take is I,
968
00:22:06.500 --> 00:22:06.900
you know,
969
00:22:07.870 --> 00:22:09.310
I'm won over by a few different things.
970
00:22:09.470 --> 00:22:11.930
Let me go back through where we are and then we all know that
971
00:22:12.430 --> 00:22:12.630
the,
972
00:22:12.750 --> 00:22:16.330
the state of Florida has really turned more red over the past
973
00:22:16.590 --> 00:22:17.220
several cycles,
974
00:22:17.350 --> 00:22:17.470
right?
975
00:22:17.560 --> 00:22:20.980
Ron DeSantiss most famously really blowout election in 2024.
976
00:22:21.860 --> 00:22:23.570
Or 20 2022 or 24,
977
00:22:23.590 --> 00:22:24.180
I don't remember
978
00:22:24.340 --> 00:22:25.010
his last
979
00:22:25.180 --> 00:22:25.450
election.
980
00:22:25.500 --> 00:22:25.740
He's,
981
00:22:25.780 --> 00:22:26.480
he's
982
00:22:26.860 --> 00:22:27.770
term limited here.
983
00:22:28.060 --> 00:22:29.800
So that's why Byron Donalds is coming
984
00:22:29.900 --> 00:22:30.150
in.
985
00:22:31.130 --> 00:22:33.160
One thing that like you might not be aware of
986
00:22:33.390 --> 00:22:36.400
is how dramatically the shift has occurred.
987
00:22:36.930 --> 00:22:37.820
People moving
988
00:22:38.210 --> 00:22:39.020
since COVID,
989
00:22:39.130 --> 00:22:39.900
basically,
990
00:22:40.360 --> 00:22:43.880
moving out of blue states where they were very annoyed
991
00:22:43.880 --> 00:22:46.990
that they were um being constricted in those states.
992
00:22:47.290 --> 00:22:49.190
They did not like the way those states handled COVID.
993
00:22:49.210 --> 00:22:51.510
They started moving there from blue states,
994
00:22:51.530 --> 00:22:53.790
a lot of Republicans moving from those blue states
995
00:22:54.130 --> 00:22:55.130
down into Florida,
996
00:22:55.490 --> 00:22:59.240
and that has changed the entire makeup of the state in a way that is really dramatic.
997
00:22:59.630 --> 00:23:00.420
Let me give you the numbers.
998
00:23:00.550 --> 00:23:01.430
In 2020,
999
00:23:01.950 --> 00:23:04.740
Democrats had a 97,000 vote
1000
00:23:04.940 --> 00:23:06.650
registration advantage.
1001
00:23:06.870 --> 00:23:10.610
So there were 97,000 more Democrats than Republicans.
1002
00:23:10.870 --> 00:23:11.720
In 2021,
1003
00:23:11.910 --> 00:23:13.810
that went from 97,000 Democrats
1004
00:23:14.060 --> 00:23:17.740
over to an advantage for Republicans of 43,000.
1005
00:23:18.310 --> 00:23:19.030
Pretty big switch,
1006
00:23:19.150 --> 00:23:19.340
right?
1007
00:23:19.510 --> 00:23:19.680
I mean,
1008
00:23:19.710 --> 00:23:22.650
that's a 150,000 vote switch
1009
00:23:22.790 --> 00:23:23.940
from Democrat to Republican.
1010
00:23:24.700 --> 00:23:25.200
But,
1011
00:23:25.660 --> 00:23:26.410
by the next year,
1012
00:23:26.470 --> 00:23:27.350
2022,
1013
00:23:27.500 --> 00:23:30.920
that had gone from a 43,000 Republican advantage
1014
00:23:31.140 --> 00:23:36.090
to a 383,000 Republican advantage.
1015
00:23:36.900 --> 00:23:38.370
In 2023,
1016
00:23:38.500 --> 00:23:39.200
the next year,
1017
00:23:39.420 --> 00:23:41.640
it went from 383,000 Republican
1018
00:23:41.940 --> 00:23:46.130
to 779,000 Republican advantage.
1019
00:23:48.040 --> 00:23:48.770
I'm not done.
1020
00:23:49.040 --> 00:23:50.590
From 2023 to 2024,
1021
00:23:50.720 --> 00:23:54.380
it went from a 779,000 Republican advantage
1022
00:23:54.640 --> 00:23:57.130
to a 1.2 million
1023
00:23:57.400 --> 00:23:58.420
Republican advantage
1024
00:23:58.640 --> 00:24:01.600
and currently sits at a 1.6
1025
00:24:01.910 --> 00:24:03.030
million vote
1026
00:24:03.480 --> 00:24:05.300
registration advantage
1027
00:24:05.520 --> 00:24:06.510
for Republicans.
1028
00:24:06.700 --> 00:24:08.600
Now that does not mean that every Republican
1029
00:24:08.840 --> 00:24:09.500
votes
1030
00:24:09.800 --> 00:24:13.020
for Byron Donalds or Ashley Moody or whoever else is in Florida.
1031
00:24:13.200 --> 00:24:13.820
It also,
1032
00:24:13.880 --> 00:24:16.220
you have to take into account a very large independent
1033
00:24:16.440 --> 00:24:17.870
group of people in Florida.
1034
00:24:18.570 --> 00:24:19.790
Which is in the millions,
1035
00:24:20.090 --> 00:24:20.320
uh,
1036
00:24:20.510 --> 00:24:23.890
that don't necessarily love Republicans right now.
1037
00:24:24.210 --> 00:24:24.420
OK?
1038
00:24:24.490 --> 00:24:25.920
That is something to take into account,
1039
00:24:26.130 --> 00:24:27.030
but that is a
1040
00:24:27.160 --> 00:24:30.190
massive head start for any Republican in Florida.
1041
00:24:30.370 --> 00:24:32.840
And we all think back to 20 2000,
1042
00:24:33.020 --> 00:24:33.160
right?
1043
00:24:33.250 --> 00:24:33.400
We're,
1044
00:24:33.530 --> 00:24:35.560
we're the closest state in the election,
1045
00:24:35.770 --> 00:24:37.440
and even it's something like 2020,
1046
00:24:37.610 --> 00:24:37.800
I mean,
1047
00:24:37.850 --> 00:24:38.120
when,
1048
00:24:38.290 --> 00:24:38.480
when,
1049
00:24:38.530 --> 00:24:38.760
uh,
1050
00:24:38.930 --> 00:24:40.200
DeSantis first came in.
1051
00:24:41.290 --> 00:24:42.560
It was a totally different state,
1052
00:24:42.750 --> 00:24:43.630
totally different world.
1053
00:24:44.450 --> 00:24:48.780
The current registration is 5.65 million Republicans versus 4.1
1054
00:24:49.050 --> 00:24:49.630
million
1055
00:24:49.890 --> 00:24:50.430
Democrats.
1056
00:24:50.730 --> 00:24:50.980
Uh,
1057
00:24:51.130 --> 00:24:51.360
of course,
1058
00:24:51.450 --> 00:24:51.790
this,
1059
00:24:51.970 --> 00:24:52.120
you know,
1060
00:24:52.250 --> 00:24:53.140
changes all the time,
1061
00:24:53.250 --> 00:24:53.550
but
1062
00:24:53.690 --> 00:24:56.000
that's where it is on our most recent numbers.
1063
00:24:56.490 --> 00:24:56.860
Now,
1064
00:24:57.330 --> 00:24:58.070
Donald's,
1065
00:24:58.170 --> 00:24:58.710
uh,
1066
00:24:59.170 --> 00:25:02.820
in the latest poll had him up 51 to 39,
1067
00:25:03.170 --> 00:25:04.160
a 12-point lead,
1068
00:25:04.210 --> 00:25:05.830
but that has not been all of the polling.
1069
00:25:05.960 --> 00:25:07.640
We'll go into some of that here in a in a,
1070
00:25:07.690 --> 00:25:08.160
in a second,
1071
00:25:08.290 --> 00:25:08.590
but
1072
00:25:09.090 --> 00:25:10.320
Donald's has a lot of money too.
1073
00:25:10.370 --> 00:25:11.890
He's raised a lot of money.
1074
00:25:12.280 --> 00:25:14.390
And the reason this state has gone so red
1075
00:25:14.560 --> 00:25:18.030
that they're running a guy like David Jolly who used to be a Republican.
1076
00:25:18.320 --> 00:25:18.390
Uh,
1077
00:25:18.560 --> 00:25:19.310
he's one of these guys,
1078
00:25:19.350 --> 00:25:20.790
we were just talking about this yesterday where,
1079
00:25:20.960 --> 00:25:21.080
you know,
1080
00:25:21.280 --> 00:25:22.470
Republican candidates.
1081
00:25:22.840 --> 00:25:23.250
Um,
1082
00:25:23.800 --> 00:25:23.990
uh,
1083
00:25:24.240 --> 00:25:24.430
you know,
1084
00:25:24.640 --> 00:25:25.590
wind up dropping out because,
1085
00:25:25.640 --> 00:25:25.790
you know,
1086
00:25:26.000 --> 00:25:26.110
you know,
1087
00:25:26.200 --> 00:25:26.950
whatever the reason is,
1088
00:25:27.000 --> 00:25:27.790
I think in Jolly's case,
1089
00:25:27.840 --> 00:25:29.450
he didn't like Trump or whatever.
1090
00:25:29.680 --> 00:25:30.670
He dropped out.
1091
00:25:30.840 --> 00:25:32.430
He became an independent for a while,
1092
00:25:32.560 --> 00:25:32.990
then he said,
1093
00:25:33.080 --> 00:25:33.420
you know,
1094
00:25:33.640 --> 00:25:34.710
the fake independent syndrome,
1095
00:25:34.760 --> 00:25:35.960
we talked about that earlier this week.
1096
00:25:36.120 --> 00:25:37.230
Then he became a Democrat.
1097
00:25:37.300 --> 00:25:39.150
He's now running as a Democrat in the state
1098
00:25:39.320 --> 00:25:39.990
and trying to say like,
1099
00:25:40.080 --> 00:25:40.270
hey,
1100
00:25:40.360 --> 00:25:40.950
I'm a Democrat,
1101
00:25:41.040 --> 00:25:41.940
but I'm more in the middle,
1102
00:25:42.040 --> 00:25:42.270
you know,
1103
00:25:42.360 --> 00:25:42.680
you can,
1104
00:25:42.760 --> 00:25:43.320
I'm moderate,
1105
00:25:43.400 --> 00:25:44.260
don't worry about it.
1106
00:25:44.680 --> 00:25:44.970
Um,
1107
00:25:45.200 --> 00:25:45.380
he,
1108
00:25:45.520 --> 00:25:45.710
uh,
1109
00:25:45.960 --> 00:25:48.880
Donald's won in the primary convincingly.
1110
00:25:49.560 --> 00:25:49.820
Uh,
1111
00:25:49.960 --> 00:25:50.470
and of course,
1112
00:25:50.650 --> 00:25:51.950
Trump won by,
1113
00:25:52.280 --> 00:25:52.430
you know,
1114
00:25:52.560 --> 00:25:53.950
was it 13 points.
1115
00:25:54.040 --> 00:25:54.110
Uh,
1116
00:25:54.240 --> 00:25:55.300
let me see if I have the numbers here.
1117
00:25:55.320 --> 00:25:55.390
Yeah,
1118
00:25:55.520 --> 00:25:56.030
so this is the,
1119
00:25:56.120 --> 00:25:58.100
this is the baseline advantage here for the past
1120
00:25:58.270 --> 00:25:58.500
few,
1121
00:25:58.650 --> 00:25:58.750
uh,
1122
00:25:58.880 --> 00:25:59.310
terms.
1123
00:25:59.520 --> 00:26:00.070
In 2020,
1124
00:26:00.200 --> 00:26:01.200
Trump won by 3,
1125
00:26:01.320 --> 00:26:02.030
2022,
1126
00:26:02.160 --> 00:26:03.710
DeSantis won by 19,
1127
00:26:03.880 --> 00:26:04.620
2024,
1128
00:26:04.810 --> 00:26:06.150
Trump won by 13.
1129
00:26:06.320 --> 00:26:07.020
The polling
1130
00:26:07.640 --> 00:26:08.790
is a little bit all over the board.
1131
00:26:08.840 --> 00:26:09.230
Do we have,
1132
00:26:09.400 --> 00:26:09.590
uh,
1133
00:26:09.760 --> 00:26:09.800
yeah,
1134
00:26:09.840 --> 00:26:11.070
I'll get to that here in just a second.
1135
00:26:11.120 --> 00:26:13.100
A couple of arguments I want to make on the jolly,
1136
00:26:13.280 --> 00:26:13.380
uh,
1137
00:26:13.560 --> 00:26:14.200
front though.
1138
00:26:14.280 --> 00:26:17.000
We always like to make the counter case to our claim as well.
1139
00:26:17.530 --> 00:26:18.500
As we go through
1140
00:26:18.690 --> 00:26:19.910
the candidate countdown,
1141
00:26:20.290 --> 00:26:20.600
um,
1142
00:26:20.890 --> 00:26:23.110
have some through in looking through my notes here,
1143
00:26:23.490 --> 00:26:23.960
uh,
1144
00:26:24.770 --> 00:26:26.190
polling is somewhat mixed.
1145
00:26:26.290 --> 00:26:26.640
In fact,
1146
00:26:27.010 --> 00:26:28.660
Jolly is actually led in a poll or two.
1147
00:26:28.930 --> 00:26:31.650
Change Research had it at 48-46 Jolly.
1148
00:26:31.930 --> 00:26:32.040
Uh,
1149
00:26:32.250 --> 00:26:34.710
Stetson had it 5139 Donald's,
1150
00:26:34.970 --> 00:26:35.080
uh,
1151
00:26:35.330 --> 00:26:40.110
Saint Petersburg polls had it at 44 to 43
1152
00:26:40.500 --> 00:26:41.230
Donald's.
1153
00:26:41.490 --> 00:26:43.910
So we've seen a couple of the polls that are close,
1154
00:26:44.330 --> 00:26:44.480
uh,
1155
00:26:44.610 --> 00:26:44.960
and then,
1156
00:26:45.090 --> 00:26:45.280
you know,
1157
00:26:45.330 --> 00:26:46.510
a blowout as well.
1158
00:26:47.230 --> 00:26:47.790
Jolly,
1159
00:26:48.030 --> 00:26:49.190
being a former Republican,
1160
00:26:49.510 --> 00:26:51.370
may have some credibility with some,
1161
00:26:51.390 --> 00:26:54.620
a certain section of moderate Republican voters.
1162
00:26:54.960 --> 00:26:55.100
Uh,
1163
00:26:55.230 --> 00:26:58.420
you have over 3 million non-affiliated voters in the state.
1164
00:26:58.470 --> 00:27:00.130
If they all kind of go
1165
00:27:00.450 --> 00:27:02.540
against Jolly or against Donald's,
1166
00:27:02.750 --> 00:27:04.380
there could be trouble for Jolly.
1167
00:27:04.710 --> 00:27:07.680
One recent survey showed warning signs for Donald's with,
1168
00:27:07.830 --> 00:27:07.950
uh,
1169
00:27:08.070 --> 00:27:09.690
with not affiliated voters.
1170
00:27:10.020 --> 00:27:11.250
That change research one,
1171
00:27:11.460 --> 00:27:13.840
remember the one that had a slight lead for Jolly?
1172
00:27:14.060 --> 00:27:15.530
The reason why that lead existed,
1173
00:27:15.550 --> 00:27:16.530
and if these numbers happen,
1174
00:27:16.660 --> 00:27:18.490
it probably will be a loss for Donald,
1175
00:27:19.100 --> 00:27:19.310
uh,
1176
00:27:19.580 --> 00:27:23.860
had him at only a 23% favorite among independents,
1177
00:27:23.980 --> 00:27:24.450
if you will.
1178
00:27:25.600 --> 00:27:26.310
That's a big deal.
1179
00:27:26.600 --> 00:27:27.510
If he's at 23%,
1180
00:27:27.560 --> 00:27:28.510
he's probably not gonna win.
1181
00:27:28.680 --> 00:27:30.350
My guess is it's closer to 40% or 50%,
1182
00:27:30.400 --> 00:27:30.550
and he,
1183
00:27:30.640 --> 00:27:31.820
and that means that he does.
1184
00:27:32.200 --> 00:27:32.580
Um,
1185
00:27:33.010 --> 00:27:35.520
Donald's has never really gone through a statewide election yet,
1186
00:27:35.750 --> 00:27:36.750
not necessarily proven,
1187
00:27:36.840 --> 00:27:37.630
but neither is Jolly,
1188
00:27:37.680 --> 00:27:39.140
so that's not much there.
1189
00:27:39.320 --> 00:27:41.910
And of course you have affordability is a problem in Florida.
1190
00:27:42.000 --> 00:27:42.150
I mean,
1191
00:27:42.240 --> 00:27:44.140
I remember when we moved to Florida,
1192
00:27:44.480 --> 00:27:44.540
uh,
1193
00:27:44.760 --> 00:27:44.850
you know,
1194
00:27:44.880 --> 00:27:45.790
I was working with Glenn Beck,
1195
00:27:45.840 --> 00:27:47.270
we were up in Pennsylvania,
1196
00:27:47.480 --> 00:27:48.870
and I remember moving out of Florida and thinking,
1197
00:27:48.960 --> 00:27:49.470
oh my gosh,
1198
00:27:49.560 --> 00:27:52.070
like someone took out the wrong pricing gun.
1199
00:27:52.240 --> 00:27:53.790
All the houses are on sale.
1200
00:27:54.120 --> 00:27:54.430
Um,
1201
00:27:54.560 --> 00:27:57.270
it felt like it was really cheap to move to Florida
1202
00:27:57.640 --> 00:27:57.860
from,
1203
00:27:58.080 --> 00:27:58.150
uh,
1204
00:27:58.240 --> 00:27:58.710
Pennsylvania.
1205
00:27:58.840 --> 00:27:59.840
Not really the case anymore.
1206
00:28:00.000 --> 00:28:00.230
In fact,
1207
00:28:00.320 --> 00:28:02.190
it's a pretty expensive place to live
1208
00:28:02.400 --> 00:28:03.190
just because there's so,
1209
00:28:03.320 --> 00:28:03.940
so much demand,
1210
00:28:04.080 --> 00:28:04.240
right?
1211
00:28:04.360 --> 00:28:05.510
There's so many people coming down.
1212
00:28:05.600 --> 00:28:06.670
They're building constantly.
1213
00:28:06.720 --> 00:28:06.870
I mean,
1214
00:28:06.960 --> 00:28:08.030
Florida is a great place to live,
1215
00:28:08.240 --> 00:28:09.750
no state income tax
1216
00:28:10.000 --> 00:28:10.660
and the like,
1217
00:28:10.810 --> 00:28:11.490
but there,
1218
00:28:11.760 --> 00:28:14.780
there has been a mass exodus from other states.
1219
00:28:14.950 --> 00:28:16.630
People who can't stand
1220
00:28:17.520 --> 00:28:18.320
Democratic rule
1221
00:28:18.800 --> 00:28:19.660
have moved
1222
00:28:20.280 --> 00:28:20.790
to a Florida,
1223
00:28:21.040 --> 00:28:21.440
to Florida,
1224
00:28:21.480 --> 00:28:22.460
a Republican state.
1225
00:28:22.780 --> 00:28:25.810
And that is one of the big reasons why I really like Byron Donalds in this.
1226
00:28:25.900 --> 00:28:27.860
I don't like him as much as I like Ashley Moody.
1227
00:28:27.980 --> 00:28:30.530
I think I'm more confident in Ashley Moody in the Senate,
1228
00:28:30.700 --> 00:28:31.410
a little bit less here,
1229
00:28:31.500 --> 00:28:32.320
but you get more
1230
00:28:32.570 --> 00:28:33.580
for that uncertainty.
1231
00:28:33.820 --> 00:28:35.360
You get a little bit of a reward.
1232
00:28:35.580 --> 00:28:35.930
Now,
1233
00:28:36.180 --> 00:28:36.370
uh,
1234
00:28:36.700 --> 00:28:37.180
Republicans,
1235
00:28:37.340 --> 00:28:37.350
uh,
1236
00:28:37.540 --> 00:28:38.530
according to Florida Today,
1237
00:28:38.700 --> 00:28:41.090
can't escape Trump ahead of midterms.
1238
00:28:41.260 --> 00:28:41.640
Florida,
1239
00:28:41.900 --> 00:28:41.920
uh,
1240
00:28:42.060 --> 00:28:42.440
president,
1241
00:28:42.620 --> 00:28:42.720
uh,
1242
00:28:42.860 --> 00:28:43.210
excuse me,
1243
00:28:43.300 --> 00:28:44.370
former President Donald Trump,
1244
00:28:44.580 --> 00:28:44.770
um,
1245
00:28:44.900 --> 00:28:45.850
announced in rallies,
1246
00:28:45.980 --> 00:28:46.000
uh,
1247
00:28:46.180 --> 00:28:46.570
for the,
1248
00:28:46.660 --> 00:28:46.890
uh,
1249
00:28:47.550 --> 00:28:49.930
I don't know why they're calling him former President Donald Trump.
1250
00:28:50.020 --> 00:28:51.230
He's also the current president.
1251
00:28:51.380 --> 00:28:52.180
Are they aware of that?
1252
00:28:53.100 --> 00:28:53.490
We should,
1253
00:28:53.660 --> 00:28:55.200
we should update Florida today
1254
00:28:55.340 --> 00:28:57.450
and let them know that 2024 occurred.
1255
00:28:58.210 --> 00:28:59.120
This is really how it's written.
1256
00:28:59.340 --> 00:29:02.440
Former President Donald Trump announced rallies for the Florida GOP.
1257
00:29:05.110 --> 00:29:06.420
Did I miss a big news story?
1258
00:29:06.470 --> 00:29:07.220
He's still president,
1259
00:29:07.310 --> 00:29:07.650
right?
1260
00:29:08.070 --> 00:29:08.930
That still happened,
1261
00:29:09.150 --> 00:29:09.250
uh,
1262
00:29:09.350 --> 00:29:10.250
but he's down there,
1263
00:29:10.550 --> 00:29:10.930
um,
1264
00:29:11.350 --> 00:29:11.540
you know,
1265
00:29:11.630 --> 00:29:12.340
going for candidates.
1266
00:29:12.390 --> 00:29:12.700
And look,
1267
00:29:12.830 --> 00:29:13.320
Donald Trump,
1268
00:29:13.510 --> 00:29:14.720
whether you like Trump or not,
1269
00:29:15.110 --> 00:29:17.430
the truth is his poll numbers suck right now.
1270
00:29:17.550 --> 00:29:18.410
They're not great.
1271
00:29:18.670 --> 00:29:20.900
And so the effect of Trump on some of these races,
1272
00:29:21.150 --> 00:29:22.970
particularly in more moderate states,
1273
00:29:23.270 --> 00:29:24.610
can be a problem
1274
00:29:24.830 --> 00:29:26.020
as candidates try to win.
1275
00:29:26.070 --> 00:29:26.220
I mean,
1276
00:29:26.270 --> 00:29:27.140
we're seeing that in,
1277
00:29:27.230 --> 00:29:28.690
even in the Midwest right now.
1278
00:29:29.400 --> 00:29:29.870
Florida though,
1279
00:29:29.920 --> 00:29:31.810
I think is much more positive for Trump.
1280
00:29:31.920 --> 00:29:32.420
I think
1281
00:29:32.680 --> 00:29:35.220
of the newish sort of red states,
1282
00:29:35.600 --> 00:29:38.830
Florida is probably the most pro-Trump that you're gonna find,
1283
00:29:39.110 --> 00:29:39.270
um,
1284
00:29:39.400 --> 00:29:41.080
as they've gone through this situation,
1285
00:29:41.300 --> 00:29:41.470
uh,
1286
00:29:41.680 --> 00:29:42.510
since 2020.
1287
00:29:42.640 --> 00:29:43.670
Let me show you the polls right now,
1288
00:29:43.840 --> 00:29:45.710
see if there's anything that we missed on the polls.
1289
00:29:45.920 --> 00:29:46.750
Saint Pete had it even,
1290
00:29:46.880 --> 00:29:48.600
4443 Donald's actually.
1291
00:29:48.880 --> 00:29:48.950
Uh,
1292
00:29:49.040 --> 00:29:49.510
a new poll,
1293
00:29:49.640 --> 00:29:49.710
uh,
1294
00:29:49.880 --> 00:29:51.470
Change Research has Jolly up by 2,
1295
00:29:51.570 --> 00:29:52.580
Donald's up by 12,
1296
00:29:52.840 --> 00:29:53.870
according to Stetson.
1297
00:29:54.040 --> 00:29:56.440
You can see Change Research has really liked
1298
00:29:56.800 --> 00:29:57.790
Jolly for a while.
1299
00:29:57.920 --> 00:29:59.860
Their previous poll had Jolly up by 3.
1300
00:30:00.050 --> 00:30:00.750
So actually,
1301
00:30:00.960 --> 00:30:02.020
the most recent poll,
1302
00:30:02.480 --> 00:30:05.550
more positive for Donald's than the previous one.
1303
00:30:05.920 --> 00:30:06.220
Uh,
1304
00:30:06.520 --> 00:30:07.740
another Democratic poll
1305
00:30:07.920 --> 00:30:08.140
had,
1306
00:30:08.240 --> 00:30:08.380
uh,
1307
00:30:08.680 --> 00:30:09.110
Collins,
1308
00:30:09.240 --> 00:30:09.350
uh,
1309
00:30:09.520 --> 00:30:09.990
or excuse me,
1310
00:30:10.120 --> 00:30:10.330
um,
1311
00:30:10.760 --> 00:30:11.520
Jolly up 46,
1312
00:30:11.560 --> 00:30:11.950
45,
1313
00:30:12.010 --> 00:30:14.550
and then you go back to July where we hadn't even picked the candidate yet,
1314
00:30:14.640 --> 00:30:15.940
but you do see Donald's up
1315
00:30:16.120 --> 00:30:16.630
by 7.
1316
00:30:16.760 --> 00:30:18.710
So this is not like a sure thing
1317
00:30:18.840 --> 00:30:19.810
and that the polling is showing,
1318
00:30:19.970 --> 00:30:20.070
look,
1319
00:30:20.120 --> 00:30:20.200
I,
1320
00:30:20.280 --> 00:30:21.740
I like doing this analysis,
1321
00:30:21.920 --> 00:30:22.950
not knowing what the polls are.
1322
00:30:23.540 --> 00:30:24.730
I like going through these analysis,
1323
00:30:24.900 --> 00:30:25.850
crunching these numbers,
1324
00:30:26.020 --> 00:30:27.200
thinking about these races,
1325
00:30:27.340 --> 00:30:27.610
and saying,
1326
00:30:27.660 --> 00:30:28.000
you know what,
1327
00:30:28.020 --> 00:30:29.480
I think this guy's really favored.
1328
00:30:29.860 --> 00:30:30.890
Then I'll look at the polls.
1329
00:30:31.020 --> 00:30:32.790
What I want out of that exercise
1330
00:30:32.970 --> 00:30:36.210
is I'm really hoping the polls tell me the same thing that I'm thinking,
1331
00:30:36.580 --> 00:30:36.770
right?
1332
00:30:37.020 --> 00:30:39.300
And then I feel doubly confident to come in here.
1333
00:30:39.500 --> 00:30:40.840
What we're seeing in the polling is
1334
00:30:41.060 --> 00:30:42.060
basically mixed.
1335
00:30:42.760 --> 00:30:43.230
Um
1336
00:30:44.060 --> 00:30:44.520
You know,
1337
00:30:44.740 --> 00:30:45.070
uh,
1338
00:30:45.500 --> 00:30:48.040
Donald's is not running away with every single poll.
1339
00:30:48.220 --> 00:30:49.340
I would like to see him improving.
1340
00:30:49.420 --> 00:30:49.650
I'd,
1341
00:30:49.780 --> 00:30:53.000
I'll feel more confident and increase my position if he continues
1342
00:30:53.220 --> 00:30:53.440
to,
1343
00:30:53.510 --> 00:30:53.520
uh,
1344
00:30:53.660 --> 00:30:55.200
be ahead in a lot of these polls.
1345
00:30:55.460 --> 00:30:55.830
Um,
1346
00:30:56.100 --> 00:30:56.560
but
1347
00:30:56.860 --> 00:30:58.840
this is what the market looks like right now.
1348
00:30:59.140 --> 00:31:00.570
And if you look at this one right now,
1349
00:31:00.630 --> 00:31:04.690
you have an opportunity to get into Byron Donald's at 77 cents.
1350
00:31:05.140 --> 00:31:05.210
Uh,
1351
00:31:05.340 --> 00:31:06.650
if you are new to prediction markets,
1352
00:31:06.700 --> 00:31:08.030
the way to think about that
1353
00:31:08.260 --> 00:31:12.650
is every share that you buy for 77 cents gives you a 23%
1354
00:31:12.940 --> 00:31:14.460
or 23 cents profit.
1355
00:31:14.700 --> 00:31:15.240
So,
1356
00:31:15.820 --> 00:31:15.930
uh,
1357
00:31:16.020 --> 00:31:16.170
you know,
1358
00:31:16.220 --> 00:31:17.040
it's about
1359
00:31:17.340 --> 00:31:19.120
a third of your money in profit,
1360
00:31:19.340 --> 00:31:19.770
OK?
1361
00:31:20.140 --> 00:31:20.490
Um,
1362
00:31:20.740 --> 00:31:23.150
getting a 30 to 35% gain
1363
00:31:23.540 --> 00:31:23.990
in
1364
00:31:24.120 --> 00:31:25.130
five weeks.
1365
00:31:26.010 --> 00:31:29.280
Normally seen as positive when it comes to an investment gain.
1366
00:31:29.650 --> 00:31:30.430
This is not,
1367
00:31:30.690 --> 00:31:30.920
uh,
1368
00:31:31.090 --> 00:31:32.440
something I would say you're gonna,
1369
00:31:32.530 --> 00:31:32.650
you know,
1370
00:31:32.690 --> 00:31:33.910
it's not my biggest position.
1371
00:31:34.050 --> 00:31:34.160
I,
1372
00:31:34.250 --> 00:31:34.400
uh,
1373
00:31:34.530 --> 00:31:36.670
I have been growing it over the past couple of weeks
1374
00:31:36.970 --> 00:31:38.400
as I've gone deeper and deeper into the research,
1375
00:31:38.420 --> 00:31:41.120
and we made a lot of money on Donald's in the primary.
1376
00:31:41.250 --> 00:31:41.320
Uh,
1377
00:31:41.420 --> 00:31:41.920
I was high,
1378
00:31:42.010 --> 00:31:42.280
it was,
1379
00:31:42.330 --> 00:31:42.760
I.
1380
00:31:44.350 --> 00:31:45.780
If it wasn't my biggest position,
1381
00:31:45.830 --> 00:31:50.210
it was the top three biggest positions I took in the primary was on Byron Donalds.
1382
00:31:50.430 --> 00:31:50.540
Uh,
1383
00:31:50.630 --> 00:31:54.610
we were getting him in the 80% category and rode that all the way up into the 90s.
1384
00:31:54.750 --> 00:31:55.340
He won that,
1385
00:31:55.430 --> 00:31:55.540
uh,
1386
00:31:55.710 --> 00:31:57.070
relatively easily.
1387
00:31:57.390 --> 00:31:57.590
Um,
1388
00:31:57.790 --> 00:31:58.210
and
1389
00:31:58.470 --> 00:32:00.750
I think he is a candidate that
1390
00:32:01.070 --> 00:32:03.040
while I don't think he'll do as well as Moody.
1391
00:32:03.480 --> 00:32:03.540
Uh,
1392
00:32:03.680 --> 00:32:03.940
in the,
1393
00:32:04.030 --> 00:32:04.340
in the,
1394
00:32:04.400 --> 00:32:04.500
uh,
1395
00:32:04.630 --> 00:32:05.460
Florida elections,
1396
00:32:05.550 --> 00:32:06.950
that's the Republican Senate candidate.
1397
00:32:07.030 --> 00:32:08.380
If you're not watching those races closely,
1398
00:32:08.470 --> 00:32:08.890
why would you?
1399
00:32:08.910 --> 00:32:09.740
You probably have a life.
1400
00:32:09.910 --> 00:32:10.620
If you don't live in Florida,
1401
00:32:10.710 --> 00:32:11.300
why would you care?
1402
00:32:11.590 --> 00:32:12.930
We care because we're looking for profits,
1403
00:32:12.950 --> 00:32:13.940
and I do like Moody more.
1404
00:32:14.030 --> 00:32:15.740
You're gonna get a smaller profit margin.
1405
00:32:15.790 --> 00:32:16.900
If you're more conservative,
1406
00:32:17.030 --> 00:32:17.390
if you're like,
1407
00:32:17.430 --> 00:32:18.850
I don't wanna take that much risk,
1408
00:32:19.150 --> 00:32:21.810
you can go into Ashley Moody around 90 cents.
1409
00:32:22.070 --> 00:32:22.140
Uh,
1410
00:32:22.390 --> 00:32:23.020
still a good profit.
1411
00:32:23.090 --> 00:32:23.620
You're still getting 10%.
1412
00:32:23.820 --> 00:32:24.370
percent on your money.
1413
00:32:24.460 --> 00:32:25.810
Nothing wrong with that in a few weeks.
1414
00:32:26.020 --> 00:32:26.130
Uh,
1415
00:32:26.260 --> 00:32:27.930
but I wanna get a little bit more aggressive,
1416
00:32:27.980 --> 00:32:30.040
you can go down this road with Byron Donalds.
1417
00:32:30.260 --> 00:32:30.380
Um,
1418
00:32:30.540 --> 00:32:32.180
this is a similar profile
1419
00:32:32.960 --> 00:32:35.650
in some ways to the way I'm looking at Greg Abbott in Texas,
1420
00:32:35.740 --> 00:32:36.990
who's also in the 70s,
1421
00:32:37.100 --> 00:32:37.630
high 70s,
1422
00:32:37.660 --> 00:32:38.450
low 80s.
1423
00:32:38.740 --> 00:32:39.930
You can get those sorts of profits.
1424
00:32:39.980 --> 00:32:40.610
This is where I love it.
1425
00:32:40.650 --> 00:32:44.070
I love in that 70 to 80 to 90 range where I can get
1426
00:32:44.500 --> 00:32:45.560
1020,
1427
00:32:45.700 --> 00:32:47.250
30% profits
1428
00:32:47.380 --> 00:32:48.960
in short periods of time
1429
00:32:49.090 --> 00:32:50.780
with things that I'm pretty confident in.
1430
00:32:51.140 --> 00:32:52.080
Donald's is,
1431
00:32:52.550 --> 00:32:54.610
I won't say he's at the highest level of my confidence,
1432
00:32:54.700 --> 00:32:57.990
but I do think with the way the state has moved and the way it's made up,
1433
00:32:58.180 --> 00:33:00.040
I do think Donald's will hold on
1434
00:33:00.180 --> 00:33:02.450
in a much closer race than we saw with Donald
1435
00:33:02.450 --> 00:33:05.380
Trump in 2024 or certainly Ron DeSantiss in 2022.
1436
00:33:05.450 --> 00:33:06.850
It's not gonna be that kind of margin.
1437
00:33:07.150 --> 00:33:08.320
I think it's gonna be more like
1438
00:33:08.420 --> 00:33:10.650
mid-single digits to high single digits.
1439
00:33:11.140 --> 00:33:11.670
Um,
1440
00:33:12.010 --> 00:33:13.480
maybe it's even low single digits,
1441
00:33:13.530 --> 00:33:15.520
but I do think Byron Donalds will win.
1442
00:33:15.730 --> 00:33:16.150
So
1443
00:33:16.370 --> 00:33:17.600
he's not our candidate of the day.
1444
00:33:17.690 --> 00:33:17.760
No,
1445
00:33:17.850 --> 00:33:17.930
no,
1446
00:33:18.010 --> 00:33:18.080
no,
1447
00:33:18.170 --> 00:33:19.170
cause that would curse him.
1448
00:33:19.540 --> 00:33:19.670
What,
1449
00:33:19.930 --> 00:33:22.390
what our candidate of the day is jolly,
1450
00:33:22.690 --> 00:33:24.750
but the no position on jolly,
1451
00:33:25.170 --> 00:33:25.800
his opponent.
1452
00:33:26.570 --> 00:33:28.320
That's what we're looking at in Florida and that's what
1453
00:33:28.320 --> 00:33:30.120
we have for you on today's candidate of the day.
1454
00:33:30.170 --> 00:33:31.320
You can get all the candidates of the day,
1455
00:33:31.370 --> 00:33:31.800
by the way,
1456
00:33:31.930 --> 00:33:33.280
if you go back on the YouTube archive,
1457
00:33:33.490 --> 00:33:36.240
youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
1458
00:33:36.460 --> 00:33:37.980
They're all listed up there in the,
1459
00:33:38.050 --> 00:33:39.030
in the daily shows.
1460
00:33:39.210 --> 00:33:41.800
And then we have every single prediction market position that I have.
1461
00:33:41.850 --> 00:33:43.480
This is not just election stuff.
1462
00:33:43.770 --> 00:33:44.550
It's not just,
1463
00:33:44.610 --> 00:33:44.880
uh,
1464
00:33:45.010 --> 00:33:45.470
you know,
1465
00:33:45.730 --> 00:33:45.880
uh,
1466
00:33:46.010 --> 00:33:46.280
you know,
1467
00:33:47.130 --> 00:33:47.850
politics related.
1468
00:33:47.970 --> 00:33:49.840
It's also got a bunch of sports stuff in there.
1469
00:33:49.890 --> 00:33:50.100
Um,
1470
00:33:50.340 --> 00:33:50.680
and again,
1471
00:33:50.730 --> 00:33:51.310
it's not like
1472
00:33:51.410 --> 00:33:51.690
sports,
1473
00:33:51.770 --> 00:33:51.880
hey,
1474
00:33:51.970 --> 00:33:52.920
it's gonna win tomorrow's game.
1475
00:33:53.050 --> 00:33:53.990
I don't do too much of that.
1476
00:33:54.390 --> 00:33:54.730
Um,
1477
00:33:54.860 --> 00:33:56.850
it's more like what's gonna happen over the long,
1478
00:33:57.020 --> 00:33:57.170
uh,
1479
00:33:57.460 --> 00:33:58.240
the long haul.
1480
00:33:58.410 --> 00:33:58.420
I,
1481
00:33:58.540 --> 00:34:00.510
I like those positions in sports a lot better.
1482
00:34:00.700 --> 00:34:01.400
You also have,
1483
00:34:01.460 --> 00:34:01.570
uh,
1484
00:34:01.740 --> 00:34:04.360
culture markets and finance markets and,
1485
00:34:04.570 --> 00:34:04.740
uh,
1486
00:34:04.980 --> 00:34:05.170
I mean,
1487
00:34:05.300 --> 00:34:05.440
I don't know,
1488
00:34:05.620 --> 00:34:06.890
there might be a climate one or two.
1489
00:34:07.060 --> 00:34:09.000
There's even one in there about a disease.
1490
00:34:09.420 --> 00:34:10.090
That's right.
1491
00:34:11.449 --> 00:34:11.760
Don't you,
1492
00:34:11.870 --> 00:34:14.250
don't you dare go out there and get screw worm this weekend.
1493
00:34:14.449 --> 00:34:14.719
I,
1494
00:34:14.770 --> 00:34:16.120
I covered this on a previous show,
1495
00:34:16.210 --> 00:34:18.830
but I have a position that no one in America will get
1496
00:34:18.969 --> 00:34:19.800
screw worm.
1497
00:34:21.540 --> 00:34:22.889
I did a bunch of research on this.
1498
00:34:22.940 --> 00:34:24.659
I think the correct number's gonna be 0,
1499
00:34:24.820 --> 00:34:28.409
but I am nervous about it because it only takes 1 to screw me over on that position.
1500
00:34:28.540 --> 00:34:29.489
Don't you be the 1.
1501
00:34:30.300 --> 00:34:33.520
If you see a little weird fly looking at you funny,
1502
00:34:33.699 --> 00:34:34.370
get rid of it.
1503
00:34:34.580 --> 00:34:35.120
Get inside,
1504
00:34:35.340 --> 00:34:36.880
stay inside until January.
1505
00:34:37.300 --> 00:34:40.040
All sorts of different positions available at predictableShow.com
1506
00:34:40.219 --> 00:34:41.540
if you're a premium subscriber,
1507
00:34:41.780 --> 00:34:42.620
and I will say this.
1508
00:34:44.770 --> 00:34:45.040
Of course,
1509
00:34:45.090 --> 00:34:45.909
I want you to subscribe.
1510
00:34:46.130 --> 00:34:46.239
Uh,
1511
00:34:46.370 --> 00:34:46.639
I,
1512
00:34:46.790 --> 00:34:46.920
uh,
1513
00:34:47.010 --> 00:34:48.050
run a company and,
1514
00:34:48.070 --> 00:34:48.320
uh,
1515
00:34:48.449 --> 00:34:49.000
I want you to,
1516
00:34:49.170 --> 00:34:50.270
I want it to be profitable.
1517
00:34:50.820 --> 00:34:52.040
It's a great thing about being a,
1518
00:34:52.090 --> 00:34:55.159
a capitalist and proud of it is that I don't have to lie to you about that.
1519
00:34:55.250 --> 00:34:57.450
I don't have to say that I'm doing this only for my good.
1520
00:34:57.850 --> 00:34:59.320
Do I want you to make money as well?
1521
00:34:59.370 --> 00:34:59.560
Yeah,
1522
00:34:59.770 --> 00:35:00.490
I really do.
1523
00:35:00.730 --> 00:35:01.760
I could have just run a fund.
1524
00:35:01.850 --> 00:35:02.320
That was one of the,
1525
00:35:02.410 --> 00:35:05.150
that was the other model that we talked about at length here
1526
00:35:05.320 --> 00:35:08.020
when it came to prediction markets was just doing either a fund
1527
00:35:08.290 --> 00:35:09.680
or just trading.
1528
00:35:10.650 --> 00:35:12.610
But like I like the idea of bringing you guys in.
1529
00:35:12.690 --> 00:35:14.710
I like that we can all kind of do this together.
1530
00:35:14.810 --> 00:35:16.410
I like that we've all profited
1531
00:35:16.800 --> 00:35:17.640
together for the most part.
1532
00:35:17.730 --> 00:35:17.920
I mean,
1533
00:35:18.090 --> 00:35:18.210
you know,
1534
00:35:18.320 --> 00:35:19.110
not everybody does,
1535
00:35:19.210 --> 00:35:19.560
uh,
1536
00:35:19.890 --> 00:35:20.080
hits,
1537
00:35:20.210 --> 00:35:21.640
hits out of the park every single time,
1538
00:35:21.690 --> 00:35:23.000
but through the primary process,
1539
00:35:23.210 --> 00:35:24.680
it's pretty darn close to everybody.
1540
00:35:24.970 --> 00:35:25.430
Um,
1541
00:35:25.690 --> 00:35:27.160
and what we found over and over again are
1542
00:35:27.160 --> 00:35:29.880
people that decide to go from the free subscription
1543
00:35:30.050 --> 00:35:31.130
into the premium tier,
1544
00:35:31.370 --> 00:35:32.210
get access to all this,
1545
00:35:32.250 --> 00:35:33.760
you get access to the show early,
1546
00:35:33.860 --> 00:35:35.040
so if I'm taking a position,
1547
00:35:35.090 --> 00:35:35.800
you might be able to get,
1548
00:35:35.930 --> 00:35:36.160
you know,
1549
00:35:36.360 --> 00:35:37.190
get a little bit early.
1550
00:35:37.590 --> 00:35:37.660
Uh,
1551
00:35:37.800 --> 00:35:39.970
get in there and get a few extra cents
1552
00:35:40.150 --> 00:35:41.500
of profit on each share.
1553
00:35:41.860 --> 00:35:41.970
Uh,
1554
00:35:42.100 --> 00:35:46.370
but also a great community of people who are discussing these trades all the time,
1555
00:35:46.700 --> 00:35:46.890
um,
1556
00:35:47.480 --> 00:35:51.040
extensive extra live streams and all sorts of coverage,
1557
00:35:51.060 --> 00:35:52.400
plus answering your questions,
1558
00:35:52.660 --> 00:35:52.810
you know,
1559
00:35:52.900 --> 00:35:53.530
as much as I can.
1560
00:35:53.620 --> 00:35:56.540
I'm on there all the time answering people's questions if you have questions.
1561
00:35:56.820 --> 00:35:57.580
Everything from
1562
00:35:57.700 --> 00:35:58.000
the very,
1563
00:35:58.020 --> 00:36:01.160
very basics all the way up to the most advanced stuff that you can think of,
1564
00:36:01.800 --> 00:36:02.040
please,
1565
00:36:02.430 --> 00:36:02.510
uh,
1566
00:36:02.620 --> 00:36:03.690
come to predictableShow.com.
1567
00:36:03.820 --> 00:36:04.970
Become a premium subscriber.
1568
00:36:05.180 --> 00:36:07.610
What we hear over and over again from premium subscribers
1569
00:36:07.610 --> 00:36:09.490
is that like this thing's paid for itself already.
1570
00:36:09.540 --> 00:36:11.450
I've already paid for the entire year subscription.
1571
00:36:11.870 --> 00:36:14.250
Here in a couple of weeks of primary elections.
1572
00:36:14.500 --> 00:36:15.660
We've got a big one coming up.
1573
00:36:15.710 --> 00:36:16.900
If you're interested in these markets,
1574
00:36:16.990 --> 00:36:18.250
if you wanna make these part
1575
00:36:18.390 --> 00:36:19.530
of your portfolio,
1576
00:36:19.910 --> 00:36:20.890
I really do think
1577
00:36:21.140 --> 00:36:21.950
that the premium
1578
00:36:22.430 --> 00:36:23.140
subscription
1579
00:36:23.390 --> 00:36:25.660
is going to be a worthwhile expenditure for you.
1580
00:36:26.240 --> 00:36:26.740
Um,
1581
00:36:27.040 --> 00:36:28.750
I hope you'll come aboard and check that out.
1582
00:36:28.920 --> 00:36:30.430
If you wanna just kind of dabble,
1583
00:36:30.680 --> 00:36:31.190
you wanna see,
1584
00:36:31.290 --> 00:36:32.150
just watch the show,
1585
00:36:32.350 --> 00:36:33.400
listen to the podcast,
1586
00:36:33.640 --> 00:36:34.020
maybe,
1587
00:36:34.160 --> 00:36:34.230
uh,
1588
00:36:34.440 --> 00:36:35.390
become a free subscriber.
1589
00:36:35.440 --> 00:36:37.630
There's still great benefits for free subscribers,
1590
00:36:37.760 --> 00:36:38.860
great tools available
1591
00:36:39.040 --> 00:36:40.910
at predictableShow.com to help you on your,
1592
00:36:41.000 --> 00:36:41.680
on your journey.
1593
00:36:41.840 --> 00:36:44.460
Whether you're just looking to understand the elections better
1594
00:36:44.630 --> 00:36:45.820
or you're looking to trade.
1595
00:36:46.340 --> 00:36:46.900
Whatever it is,
1596
00:36:47.060 --> 00:36:47.870
we love having you.
1597
00:36:47.940 --> 00:36:49.150
I love having you here.
1598
00:36:49.300 --> 00:36:50.120
If you haven't been,
1599
00:36:50.260 --> 00:36:50.450
you know,
1600
00:36:50.620 --> 00:36:50.630
uh,
1601
00:36:50.700 --> 00:36:51.690
if you're kind of new to this stuff,
1602
00:36:51.820 --> 00:36:52.740
if you maybe were,
1603
00:36:52.820 --> 00:36:52.900
uh,
1604
00:36:53.100 --> 00:36:53.210
you know,
1605
00:36:53.260 --> 00:36:53.680
a fan of,
1606
00:36:53.700 --> 00:36:53.850
uh,
1607
00:36:54.020 --> 00:36:54.210
of,
1608
00:36:54.300 --> 00:36:54.950
of the,
1609
00:36:54.970 --> 00:36:54.980
you know,
1610
00:36:55.100 --> 00:36:56.200
Studios America or,
1611
00:36:56.380 --> 00:36:56.570
uh,
1612
00:36:56.720 --> 00:36:58.390
me and the Glenn Show or Glenn and Pat,
1613
00:36:58.580 --> 00:36:59.020
Sue and Pat,
1614
00:36:59.100 --> 00:36:59.400
all these,
1615
00:36:59.500 --> 00:36:59.650
uh,
1616
00:36:59.780 --> 00:37:00.940
different shows I've done over the years.
1617
00:37:01.560 --> 00:37:02.590
We love having you here.
1618
00:37:02.710 --> 00:37:02.820
Uh,
1619
00:37:02.960 --> 00:37:04.100
if you wanna be a premium subscriber,
1620
00:37:04.230 --> 00:37:04.380
great.
1621
00:37:04.470 --> 00:37:04.900
If you can't,
1622
00:37:05.030 --> 00:37:06.010
if it's not part of your,
1623
00:37:06.110 --> 00:37:06.570
uh,
1624
00:37:06.710 --> 00:37:07.020
you know,
1625
00:37:07.290 --> 00:37:07.620
uh,
1626
00:37:08.240 --> 00:37:09.180
portfolio right now,
1627
00:37:09.310 --> 00:37:10.940
if it's maybe too big of an expenditure,
1628
00:37:10.990 --> 00:37:11.740
I know times are tough.
1629
00:37:11.870 --> 00:37:12.060
That's,
1630
00:37:12.190 --> 00:37:12.740
that's fine.
1631
00:37:12.910 --> 00:37:14.060
Come for the free subscription.
1632
00:37:14.230 --> 00:37:16.900
We just wanna have you a part of the community and we wanna keep in touch with you.
1633
00:37:17.060 --> 00:37:18.330
It's predictableShow.com.
1634
00:37:18.710 --> 00:37:19.220
Check it out now,
1635
00:37:19.350 --> 00:37:21.260
predictableShow.com.
1636
00:37:33.740 --> 00:37:34.800
So I wanna go to Texas.
1637
00:37:34.900 --> 00:37:35.480
I think I,
1638
00:37:35.780 --> 00:37:36.620
I'm in Texas.
1639
00:37:36.860 --> 00:37:37.960
I hear about Texas a lot.
1640
00:37:38.060 --> 00:37:40.290
I think it's the state that I get asked most
1641
00:37:40.290 --> 00:37:42.730
about even online from people who don't live in Texas,
1642
00:37:42.860 --> 00:37:46.230
what's going on with this Texas race because people got into it pretty early
1643
00:37:46.420 --> 00:37:48.250
and so far it has not been good returns.
1644
00:37:48.340 --> 00:37:48.410
Uh,
1645
00:37:48.540 --> 00:37:48.810
if you,
1646
00:37:48.900 --> 00:37:50.970
if you have been following the Texas Senate race,
1647
00:37:51.380 --> 00:37:51.770
new.
1648
00:37:52.790 --> 00:37:53.420
Scandal,
1649
00:37:53.710 --> 00:37:54.370
quote unquote,
1650
00:37:54.390 --> 00:37:54.930
scandal,
1651
00:37:55.160 --> 00:37:55.380
uh,
1652
00:37:55.510 --> 00:37:56.660
happened over the past couple of days.
1653
00:37:56.790 --> 00:37:57.460
Ken Paxton,
1654
00:37:57.520 --> 00:37:59.700
he's the Republican Senate candidate here in Texas,
1655
00:37:59.990 --> 00:38:03.170
heard saying that Trump's GOP midterm convention hurt him.
1656
00:38:03.440 --> 00:38:04.020
Report.
1657
00:38:04.270 --> 00:38:07.020
And this is like a big story in the New York Times is covering this and.
1658
00:38:08.250 --> 00:38:08.560
Again,
1659
00:38:08.610 --> 00:38:09.240
the media's out.
1660
00:38:09.330 --> 00:38:09.480
They're,
1661
00:38:09.530 --> 00:38:10.430
they're doing their thing.
1662
00:38:10.560 --> 00:38:11.790
They're doing their thing right now.
1663
00:38:11.970 --> 00:38:12.500
Uh,
1664
00:38:12.930 --> 00:38:13.320
you know,
1665
00:38:13.530 --> 00:38:14.210
here's what the,
1666
00:38:14.330 --> 00:38:14.530
look,
1667
00:38:15.180 --> 00:38:18.510
they were the most innocuous nothing comments in the world,
1668
00:38:18.730 --> 00:38:19.390
frankly.
1669
00:38:19.700 --> 00:38:20.640
Someone asked him,
1670
00:38:20.810 --> 00:38:21.040
uh,
1671
00:38:21.490 --> 00:38:22.110
I guess in a,
1672
00:38:22.130 --> 00:38:22.610
in a mic,
1673
00:38:22.770 --> 00:38:24.830
the audio got went to the New York Times.
1674
00:38:25.210 --> 00:38:26.710
I wonder who sent it to them.
1675
00:38:26.850 --> 00:38:29.720
It definitely wasn't anyone associated with the Tallerico
1676
00:38:29.720 --> 00:38:31.190
campaign that I want you to know.
1677
00:38:32.190 --> 00:38:32.500
Anyway,
1678
00:38:32.590 --> 00:38:32.780
uh,
1679
00:38:32.990 --> 00:38:33.580
so he said,
1680
00:38:33.670 --> 00:38:35.690
do you feel like there's a little bit of a drag
1681
00:38:35.990 --> 00:38:36.660
as far as the,
1682
00:38:36.720 --> 00:38:37.010
um,
1683
00:38:37.310 --> 00:38:38.470
midterm convention
1684
00:38:38.660 --> 00:38:38.820
went,
1685
00:38:38.870 --> 00:38:39.340
or is it,
1686
00:38:39.630 --> 00:38:40.730
and actually what they said is,
1687
00:38:41.250 --> 00:38:41.600
Um,
1688
00:38:41.810 --> 00:38:43.520
he's a little bit of a drag.
1689
00:38:43.650 --> 00:38:43.760
Now,
1690
00:38:43.780 --> 00:38:44.810
the questioner himself,
1691
00:38:44.890 --> 00:38:46.190
I don't know who the questioner was,
1692
00:38:46.570 --> 00:38:46.760
uh,
1693
00:38:46.930 --> 00:38:49.150
but the questioner themselves
1694
00:38:49.850 --> 00:38:50.520
specifically saying,
1695
00:38:50.610 --> 00:38:50.870
hey,
1696
00:38:51.050 --> 00:38:51.360
basically,
1697
00:38:51.450 --> 00:38:53.460
do you think Trump's a drag on your campaign?
1698
00:38:53.970 --> 00:38:54.690
He said,
1699
00:38:55.010 --> 00:38:55.120
uh,
1700
00:38:55.290 --> 00:38:56.310
Paxton responded,
1701
00:38:56.450 --> 00:38:57.400
so to be honest with you,
1702
00:38:57.530 --> 00:38:58.270
the numbers,
1703
00:38:58.430 --> 00:38:59.710
when we did that convention,
1704
00:38:59.810 --> 00:39:01.030
it dropped our numbers.
1705
00:39:01.130 --> 00:39:02.440
Everybody's numbers dropped.
1706
00:39:02.610 --> 00:39:03.070
Right now,
1707
00:39:03.290 --> 00:39:03.480
yeah,
1708
00:39:03.690 --> 00:39:04.280
not good.
1709
00:39:04.830 --> 00:39:06.620
Now he doesn't refer to Trump at all.
1710
00:39:06.860 --> 00:39:08.700
At no point does he say he's referring to Trump.
1711
00:39:08.790 --> 00:39:08.970
The,
1712
00:39:09.070 --> 00:39:11.410
the question very much seems like
1713
00:39:11.710 --> 00:39:14.750
a setup to try to get Paxson to bash Trump
1714
00:39:14.870 --> 00:39:16.390
so that Trump will get mad
1715
00:39:16.590 --> 00:39:18.490
and then pull all the money out of the state.
1716
00:39:18.950 --> 00:39:20.980
That is 100% what's going on here.
1717
00:39:21.070 --> 00:39:21.260
Uh,
1718
00:39:21.550 --> 00:39:21.660
I,
1719
00:39:21.710 --> 00:39:21.860
I,
1720
00:39:21.990 --> 00:39:22.290
you know,
1721
00:39:22.430 --> 00:39:24.490
that's just speculation except for the fact that
1722
00:39:24.590 --> 00:39:25.780
it definitely happened.
1723
00:39:26.410 --> 00:39:26.600
Um,
1724
00:39:26.730 --> 00:39:27.270
and of course,
1725
00:39:27.410 --> 00:39:30.750
the fact that it's being leaked to The New York Times is another effort
1726
00:39:30.970 --> 00:39:32.450
to try to make this occur.
1727
00:39:32.730 --> 00:39:35.480
The point here is not that that's a controversial statement.
1728
00:39:35.570 --> 00:39:36.600
Anyone can look at polls.
1729
00:39:36.690 --> 00:39:36.960
First of all,
1730
00:39:37.010 --> 00:39:38.600
I don't really know that the polls did dip.
1731
00:39:38.650 --> 00:39:40.400
I don't even know that I would agree with Paxton on that.
1732
00:39:40.420 --> 00:39:41.660
I think they've been pretty stable.
1733
00:39:41.930 --> 00:39:42.270
But
1734
00:39:42.680 --> 00:39:43.350
regardless,
1735
00:39:43.530 --> 00:39:44.190
uh,
1736
00:39:44.610 --> 00:39:44.870
you know,
1737
00:39:45.050 --> 00:39:46.830
it was one of those situations where
1738
00:39:47.010 --> 00:39:47.180
the,
1739
00:39:47.370 --> 00:39:48.750
the idea was
1740
00:39:48.890 --> 00:39:51.790
to cause a split between Paxton and Trump,
1741
00:39:52.130 --> 00:39:54.720
get Trump to get mad and pull the money out of the state.
1742
00:39:55.120 --> 00:39:55.480
And then,
1743
00:39:55.540 --> 00:39:55.850
of course,
1744
00:39:55.920 --> 00:39:56.850
the New York Times,
1745
00:39:56.920 --> 00:40:00.600
who obviously wants Ken Paxton to lose this race,
1746
00:40:00.840 --> 00:40:01.180
is,
1747
00:40:01.280 --> 00:40:01.430
uh,
1748
00:40:01.520 --> 00:40:02.100
out there
1749
00:40:02.270 --> 00:40:04.460
just carrying that water for the campaign.
1750
00:40:04.800 --> 00:40:07.140
So this is just a giant campaign effort,
1751
00:40:07.720 --> 00:40:10.150
basically a campaign commercial that they didn't have to pay
1752
00:40:10.150 --> 00:40:12.140
for and the New York Times is running for free.
1753
00:40:12.720 --> 00:40:13.070
Cause that is,
1754
00:40:13.200 --> 00:40:13.310
look,
1755
00:40:13.360 --> 00:40:14.390
there's just nothing there.
1756
00:40:14.540 --> 00:40:14.940
Now,
1757
00:40:15.200 --> 00:40:15.610
Trump,
1758
00:40:16.120 --> 00:40:17.340
I don't know if you've ever noticed this,
1759
00:40:17.480 --> 00:40:19.520
occasionally can take things negatively,
1760
00:40:19.680 --> 00:40:19.790
uh,
1761
00:40:19.880 --> 00:40:20.300
when people,
1762
00:40:20.400 --> 00:40:20.430
uh,
1763
00:40:20.600 --> 00:40:21.230
criticize him.
1764
00:40:21.900 --> 00:40:22.360
So
1765
00:40:22.540 --> 00:40:26.200
the strategy once again is one that I can somewhat appreciate is just
1766
00:40:26.340 --> 00:40:26.720
like
1767
00:40:27.490 --> 00:40:29.160
pure dark politics.
1768
00:40:29.260 --> 00:40:30.170
I don't like it,
1769
00:40:30.300 --> 00:40:31.520
but it's pure dark politics,
1770
00:40:31.660 --> 00:40:32.680
it's not a bad idea.
1771
00:40:32.790 --> 00:40:34.090
If you can make that split happen,
1772
00:40:34.220 --> 00:40:35.680
Paxton will probably lose.
1773
00:40:36.020 --> 00:40:36.170
If,
1774
00:40:36.260 --> 00:40:37.360
if Trump came out and said,
1775
00:40:37.380 --> 00:40:39.080
I'm not gonna go there and campaign,
1776
00:40:39.260 --> 00:40:39.610
I'm not,
1777
00:40:39.660 --> 00:40:41.090
I'm gonna start trashing Ken Paxton,
1778
00:40:41.150 --> 00:40:42.520
I'm pulling the money out of the state,
1779
00:40:43.220 --> 00:40:44.770
probably Tallerico wins this race.
1780
00:40:45.240 --> 00:40:45.460
Um,
1781
00:40:45.590 --> 00:40:46.780
so it's a big deal.
1782
00:40:46.910 --> 00:40:48.420
It doesn't seem like it's worked.
1783
00:40:48.720 --> 00:40:48.730
Uh,
1784
00:40:48.990 --> 00:40:49.820
Trump defects,
1785
00:40:49.960 --> 00:40:49.970
uh,
1786
00:40:50.110 --> 00:40:52.140
deflects on leaked audio of Ken Paxton,
1787
00:40:52.390 --> 00:40:55.050
calling Texas midterm convention a drag on his poll numbers.
1788
00:40:55.390 --> 00:40:55.740
Um,
1789
00:40:56.070 --> 00:40:56.540
he said,
1790
00:40:56.600 --> 00:40:56.840
uh,
1791
00:40:57.310 --> 00:40:57.340
uh,
1792
00:40:57.550 --> 00:40:58.700
people asked him about that.
1793
00:40:58.950 --> 00:40:59.060
He,
1794
00:40:59.200 --> 00:40:59.210
uh,
1795
00:40:59.390 --> 00:40:59.690
Trump,
1796
00:41:00.050 --> 00:41:00.060
uh,
1797
00:41:00.270 --> 00:41:01.980
said he hadn't heard Paxton's comments,
1798
00:41:02.070 --> 00:41:02.590
but he said,
1799
00:41:02.670 --> 00:41:04.260
I can tell you that the convention was amazing,
1800
00:41:04.350 --> 00:41:05.560
as you probably know.
1801
00:41:05.980 --> 00:41:05.990
Uh,
1802
00:41:06.350 --> 00:41:08.310
he said other people were helped greatly.
1803
00:41:08.740 --> 00:41:09.310
Um,
1804
00:41:09.490 --> 00:41:10.590
and went on to say,
1805
00:41:10.850 --> 00:41:11.800
uh,
1806
00:41:12.170 --> 00:41:12.760
basically,
1807
00:41:12.870 --> 00:41:13.080
like,
1808
00:41:13.250 --> 00:41:13.440
you know,
1809
00:41:13.610 --> 00:41:13.800
I mean,
1810
00:41:13.890 --> 00:41:14.520
like his response,
1811
00:41:14.610 --> 00:41:15.770
I'm trying to find the exact quote,
1812
00:41:15.810 --> 00:41:16.070
but
1813
00:41:16.280 --> 00:41:17.430
basically he,
1814
00:41:17.810 --> 00:41:18.720
he didn't take the bait.
1815
00:41:18.850 --> 00:41:19.710
He didn't take the bait,
1816
00:41:19.890 --> 00:41:21.550
and Republicans now are spending
1817
00:41:21.910 --> 00:41:23.750
over $7 million
1818
00:41:24.330 --> 00:41:25.070
per day
1819
00:41:25.450 --> 00:41:27.360
to try to save Ken Paxton in Texas.
1820
00:41:27.410 --> 00:41:28.080
And I will tell you,
1821
00:41:28.250 --> 00:41:29.030
being in Texas,
1822
00:41:29.170 --> 00:41:30.350
it feels like it.
1823
00:41:30.420 --> 00:41:32.670
It feels like they're spending $7 million a day.
1824
00:41:33.330 --> 00:41:35.850
You cannot watch a sporting event without watching about 5
1825
00:41:35.850 --> 00:41:38.280
different commercials from both Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott.
1826
00:41:38.640 --> 00:41:38.900
Right now,
1827
00:41:38.920 --> 00:41:39.110
I mean,
1828
00:41:39.160 --> 00:41:39.580
it is
1829
00:41:40.000 --> 00:41:43.660
overwhelming how much money they're spending on these races right now.
1830
00:41:44.020 --> 00:41:45.450
And again they are still close.
1831
00:41:45.580 --> 00:41:47.050
Abbott seems to have a small lead.
1832
00:41:47.180 --> 00:41:49.000
Paxson seems to be slightly behind.
1833
00:41:49.460 --> 00:41:50.520
Polly Market tweeted this.
1834
00:41:50.660 --> 00:41:52.800
Ken Paxson crashes in Texas Senate law
1835
00:41:52.990 --> 00:41:54.420
odds after leaked audio
1836
00:41:54.740 --> 00:41:55.280
reportedly
1837
00:41:55.460 --> 00:41:57.850
captures him blaming Trump's convention for declining
1838
00:41:58.220 --> 00:41:59.250
Republican poll numbers.
1839
00:41:59.390 --> 00:41:59.650
Again,
1840
00:41:59.700 --> 00:42:00.930
that is what people are saying.
1841
00:42:01.060 --> 00:42:03.200
I don't agree with that framing really on it.
1842
00:42:03.870 --> 00:42:06.010
They said 41% chance Paxson wins the race.
1843
00:42:06.100 --> 00:42:06.370
Where's the,
1844
00:42:06.460 --> 00:42:07.170
where's the market now?
1845
00:42:07.220 --> 00:42:08.280
Do we have a live market on this?
1846
00:42:08.300 --> 00:42:09.380
This is poly market,
1847
00:42:10.180 --> 00:42:10.770
and wow,
1848
00:42:10.860 --> 00:42:12.290
63-38%.
1849
00:42:12.670 --> 00:42:15.110
You see that massive change there,
1850
00:42:15.330 --> 00:42:15.520
um,
1851
00:42:15.610 --> 00:42:17.400
over the past few weeks.
1852
00:42:17.650 --> 00:42:17.920
Uh,
1853
00:42:18.490 --> 00:42:18.840
look,
1854
00:42:19.140 --> 00:42:20.230
there's a big part of me that says,
1855
00:42:20.330 --> 00:42:20.810
jeez,
1856
00:42:20.970 --> 00:42:22.180
38%.
1857
00:42:22.730 --> 00:42:28.160
You can buy a Republican Senate candidate five weeks from an election for 38%.
1858
00:42:28.370 --> 00:42:31.200
It feels like someone brought the wrong pricing gun.
1859
00:42:31.480 --> 00:42:31.600
Uh,
1860
00:42:32.410 --> 00:42:33.350
everything's on sale.
1861
00:42:33.530 --> 00:42:34.280
But I will tell you,
1862
00:42:34.370 --> 00:42:36.760
Ken Paxton is absolutely in danger in this race.
1863
00:42:36.850 --> 00:42:38.140
I think 38's too low.
1864
00:42:38.410 --> 00:42:39.520
I think it's a 50/50 race,
1865
00:42:39.610 --> 00:42:41.040
maybe he has even a slight advantage.
1866
00:42:41.470 --> 00:42:41.620
Uh,
1867
00:42:41.790 --> 00:42:41.860
as,
1868
00:42:42.080 --> 00:42:42.090
uh,
1869
00:42:42.230 --> 00:42:42.780
but we will see.
1870
00:42:42.860 --> 00:42:43.500
He's gotta have some,
1871
00:42:43.630 --> 00:42:43.820
uh,
1872
00:42:44.470 --> 00:42:45.490
this money's gotta do something,
1873
00:42:45.630 --> 00:42:45.660
uh,
1874
00:42:45.830 --> 00:42:46.530
that they've been spending,
1875
00:42:46.550 --> 00:42:47.330
and we will see
1876
00:42:47.550 --> 00:42:49.300
if that is going to happen or not.
1877
00:42:49.430 --> 00:42:49.970
Gotta take a break,
1878
00:42:49.990 --> 00:42:50.540
back in a second.
1879
00:43:00.170 --> 00:43:03.440
Last night I was feverishly working for you.
1880
00:43:03.710 --> 00:43:03.720
Mhm.
1881
00:43:04.170 --> 00:43:07.080
As I was updating the predictable midterm consensus,
1882
00:43:07.130 --> 00:43:09.140
the PMC is up on the website
1883
00:43:09.330 --> 00:43:10.640
at predictableshow.com.
1884
00:43:10.730 --> 00:43:13.920
This is an election model that I built that looks at all the data from all the experts,
1885
00:43:14.010 --> 00:43:14.950
doesn't have my opinion,
1886
00:43:15.190 --> 00:43:17.030
doesn't have prediction market data in it.
1887
00:43:17.120 --> 00:43:18.080
It has everything else though,
1888
00:43:18.160 --> 00:43:18.760
polling,
1889
00:43:18.970 --> 00:43:19.160
you know,
1890
00:43:19.330 --> 00:43:20.080
fundraising,
1891
00:43:20.570 --> 00:43:20.720
history,
1892
00:43:20.850 --> 00:43:21.520
all the different things,
1893
00:43:21.610 --> 00:43:22.070
plus
1894
00:43:22.290 --> 00:43:23.230
polling models and,
1895
00:43:23.250 --> 00:43:23.800
and everything else.
1896
00:43:23.870 --> 00:43:26.340
So this is what it looks like if you go to predictableshow.com.
1897
00:43:26.690 --> 00:43:26.740
Uh,
1898
00:43:26.810 --> 00:43:27.170
at the top,
1899
00:43:27.210 --> 00:43:28.000
there's a little midterm.
1900
00:43:28.180 --> 00:43:30.600
Tab it will show you where the predictable midterm consensus is.
1901
00:43:30.780 --> 00:43:30.820
Uh,
1902
00:43:30.900 --> 00:43:31.400
if you scroll down,
1903
00:43:31.420 --> 00:43:31.470
I,
1904
00:43:31.580 --> 00:43:31.690
we,
1905
00:43:31.820 --> 00:43:33.450
we try to update this every time we update it.
1906
00:43:33.620 --> 00:43:34.180
I did last night,
1907
00:43:34.260 --> 00:43:35.080
5 things
1908
00:43:35.200 --> 00:43:36.720
from the latest PMC update.
1909
00:43:36.940 --> 00:43:37.230
Um,
1910
00:43:37.900 --> 00:43:38.690
Democrats did well.
1911
00:43:38.780 --> 00:43:39.490
There was an interesting,
1912
00:43:39.740 --> 00:43:39.780
uh,
1913
00:43:40.150 --> 00:43:40.510
update,
1914
00:43:40.780 --> 00:43:40.930
uh,
1915
00:43:41.140 --> 00:43:42.380
from one of the big experts,
1916
00:43:42.500 --> 00:43:44.820
the Sabatos Chris Crystal Ball,
1917
00:43:45.060 --> 00:43:45.170
uh,
1918
00:43:45.340 --> 00:43:47.210
big move in Ohio as well to talk about.
1919
00:43:47.280 --> 00:43:48.640
So you can go check out all that data.
1920
00:43:48.740 --> 00:43:49.290
It's all there.
1921
00:43:49.460 --> 00:43:50.610
All this stuff is free for you if you
1922
00:43:50.610 --> 00:43:52.880
want the individual states as part of the predictable,
1923
00:43:53.180 --> 00:43:53.320
uh,
1924
00:43:53.540 --> 00:43:56.050
premium package which you can get at predictable show.
1925
00:43:56.310 --> 00:43:57.650
Dot com every single race.
1926
00:43:57.830 --> 00:43:58.860
We also have the Senate board.
1927
00:43:58.910 --> 00:44:00.340
You can drag that around and play with that.
1928
00:44:00.470 --> 00:44:00.890
You've got,
1929
00:44:00.950 --> 00:44:01.330
uh,
1930
00:44:01.350 --> 00:44:02.140
all different tools,
1931
00:44:02.350 --> 00:44:03.700
great chat community too,
1932
00:44:03.830 --> 00:44:04.100
by the way.
1933
00:44:04.190 --> 00:44:05.420
If you have an idea for a prediction market,
1934
00:44:05.510 --> 00:44:06.980
if you're thinking like how do I work this,
1935
00:44:07.070 --> 00:44:07.700
how does this happen?
1936
00:44:07.790 --> 00:44:08.830
What happens when this goes on,
1937
00:44:09.070 --> 00:44:12.180
great place to go and ask whether you're a free subscriber or a premium subscriber.
1938
00:44:12.230 --> 00:44:12.810
You can do that
1939
00:44:13.030 --> 00:44:14.460
at predictableshow.com.
1940
00:44:14.790 --> 00:44:15.570
All that's there.
1941
00:44:15.990 --> 00:44:17.010
Join with us now
1942
00:44:17.190 --> 00:44:18.060
and uh we will,
1943
00:44:18.110 --> 00:44:18.750
uh,
1944
00:44:18.970 --> 00:44:19.410
we've got,
1945
00:44:19.510 --> 00:44:19.700
you know,
1946
00:44:19.790 --> 00:44:20.760
just a few more weeks to the,
1947
00:44:20.870 --> 00:44:22.530
to the election to sort all this out.
1948
00:44:22.750 --> 00:44:23.580
Thanks for hanging out with us.
1949
00:44:23.710 --> 00:44:24.300
We'll see you soon.