The One MAJOR Midterms Issue that Could Flip the Election on its Head

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So will prices at the pump be a death blow for Republicans this November,
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or is
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there maybe,
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just maybe,
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a teensy-weensy sliver of hope to turn the situation around?
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We'll get into that.
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Dan Andros is here to show you kind of how to build a,
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to be honest,
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a losing fantasy team in the Senate Fantasy League.
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Uh,
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my team obviously going to win.
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Um,
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and then we'll launch a raid
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on the candidate countdown candidate of the day in Minnesota.
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It's all coming up and more right here on Predictable
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with Stu.
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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Uh,
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go to Senatefantasy.com to get your team in right now.
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You can even beat Dan Andros if you like.
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Uh,
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Senate Fantasy.com,
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totally free to join.
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Takes like 5 minutes to get your team in.
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There's
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tons of people joining right now,
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taking their shot at thousands of dollars in actual cash prizes.
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Uh,
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so,
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$0 entry,
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potential
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of thousands of dollars
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of exit.
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I can't do better for you than that.
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Go there,
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Senatefantassy.com.
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There's 20 days until the midterm elections,
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and,
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uh,
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early voting is happening now in 20 states.
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Uh,
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we're up to 40% of the union already doing this,
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uh,
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in,
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in early voting.
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And,
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you know,
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you might be looking at this,
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if you're a conservative,
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you might be saying,
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oh gosh,
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is it time to panic yet?
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No.
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Time to panic is Monday.
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Monday's panic day.
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Yes,
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Monday,
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this coming Monday,
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only a few days away.
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Monday,
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October 19th will be panic day.
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We will look at our positions.
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We will say,
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should we be resizing these?
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There's been a lot of things we didn't expect to happen.
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Can we adjust?
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Should we adjust what is happening
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panic day,
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Monday,
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October 19th,
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right around the corner.
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And
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we did get some inflation news today.
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Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually on in September
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as gas prices
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skyrocketed.
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That's obviously the biggest factor
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in there.
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Trump is trying to push back against this narrative.
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Uh,
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he's pushed
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a,
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uh,
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Russian diesel,
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uh,
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deal together,
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uh,
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that draws,
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uh,
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pushback and skepticism,
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according to the Wall Street Journal.
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Um,
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that is going on as well.
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Lots of,
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of,
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of information,
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uh,
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going on when it comes to energy markets,
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and that's been the biggest thing.
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Let's be honest about it.
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By far the biggest factor right now,
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are these gas prices when it comes to economic trends.
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Um,
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I,
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I wanna go through some of this though,
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because I think.
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There's something about gas prices.
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Rush Limbaugh used to say this back in the day,
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uh,
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when he hosted a show,
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uh,
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about how gas prices were the most important metric leading into an election.
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Why?
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Because there was an advertise for them,
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an advertisement for them on every corner.
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Every corner you go around,
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there'd be a big number
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in your face showing you exactly what the gas prices were.
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When they were high,
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you noticed them
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all the time.
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Obviously,
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you probably drive,
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and if you're one of,
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I don't know,
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what is it?
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Probably 90%,
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95% of people
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drive a car that takes gasoline.
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Uh,
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you're in a position where you're dealing with those on a day to day basis.
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The one thing I would,
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I would add to Russia's analysis,
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which is very,
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very smart,
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is the fact that people tend to have a generally speaking,
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short-term memory
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when it comes to gas prices.
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Gas prices shoot up,
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people are really pissed off about it,
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but when they come down,
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they kind of quickly forget,
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and they kind of quickly adjust to new norms.
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I was talking to someone the other day,
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like,
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gosh,
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I
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You know,
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it was,
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uh,
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paying $4 a gallon of gas,
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and it was,
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you know,
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uh,
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it came out of nowhere.
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It shocks you.
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And when it comes down,
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you tend to say,
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oh gosh,
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at least I'm not paying $4 a gallon.
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Your new normal kind of sets in relatively quickly when it comes to gas prices.
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So these things can change.
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Now,
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we're really close to the election.
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As I mentioned,
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we're 20 days out.
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It's really hard to change these narratives
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right now.
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And there's no policy really that's gonna do it outside of,
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I don't,
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man,
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I don't know.
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Maybe like Iran is like,
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you know what,
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we're just going to just
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upend our government and put in a constitutional republic
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and everything's gonna be fine and no more war.
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I,
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I mean,
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something like that could theoretically happen,
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but,
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uh,
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very,
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very unlikely with a couple of weeks left in the election.
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So.
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But let me show you what is developing on,
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when it comes to,
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uh,
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gas prices.
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And by the way,
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if you,
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uh,
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maybe you're a listener to Stu Does America,
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by the way,
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I should tell you,
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we have Stu and Dave Do America,
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a great show as well on Blaze TV.
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Uh,
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but Stu Does America,
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we did often the Chartapalooza.
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Uh,
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yes,
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Chartapalooza episode here for you today unpredictable.
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Let me start you with the,
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uh,
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gasoline price chart.
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This comes to us from,
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uh,
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Trading Economics,
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a website.
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Has some nice charts for you if you like them.
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Uh,
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if you're a chart guy.
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And let's go back to,
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uh,
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zoom out a little bit here,
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uh,
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Adam,
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go to,
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um,
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let me go to like a five-year chart,
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just to give you a kind of quick view of what
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gas prices have looked like over the last five years.
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You see there's massive,
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uh,
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uh,
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a massive spike back in,
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uh,
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2022
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during Biden,
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much higher,
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uh,
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than what we're,
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uh,
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dealing with today.
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Uh,
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they slowly came down over the end of Biden's presidency,
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you know,
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ups and downs as always with these graphs.
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And if you go to,
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uh,
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let's go to,
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um,
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January 2025.
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So give me,
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I don't know if you can kind of
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get in that general vicinity and see where we were.
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Uh,
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there's January 2025.
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Look,
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what are the prices we're looking at?
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They're about $2 a gallon
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in January 2025.
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And that keeps going down.
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Look at,
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just go down to the,
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the bottom there,
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which is the beginning,
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I think of 2026 there,
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January,
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uh,
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end of December
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2025,
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beginning of January 26th.
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Average price per gallon,
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$1.70.
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Now that seems like,
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and when I talk about short-term memory,
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that seems like a zillion years ago.
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That was basically this year.
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Basically this year.
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Now,
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that is,
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I would argue,
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basically what
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the president promised,
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right?
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We'll be aggressive with energy,
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we will lower prices,
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we will not,
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you know,
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have all the environmental hang-ups,
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and so prices will go down,
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and they did.
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But of course,
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on the other side of that,
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as we all know,
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what's coming is the big increase right around the corner,
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is the Iran war,
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where it shoots all the way up to the peak there of about 370 per gallon.
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And then it drops down to,
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uh,
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kind of comes off those heights and goes down to a,
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a bottom there of 282.
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Can we stop there for a second?
295
00:06:03.350 --> 00:06:04.529
This is June 22nd.
296
00:06:06.019 --> 00:06:07.399
There's nothing that pisses me off
297
00:06:08.049 --> 00:06:08.519
more
298
00:06:08.619 --> 00:06:10.970
right now than this exact moment in our history.
299
00:06:11.260 --> 00:06:12.130
June 22,
300
00:06:12.380 --> 00:06:13.250
2026.
301
00:06:13.500 --> 00:06:13.899
Why?
302
00:06:14.970 --> 00:06:15.899
This is the moment
303
00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:17.570
we're getting out of the primaries,
304
00:06:17.679 --> 00:06:19.089
and we're starting to look towards the primary,
305
00:06:19.119 --> 00:06:19.760
the elections.
306
00:06:19.880 --> 00:06:20.899
And in this moment,
307
00:06:21.399 --> 00:06:22.779
the war has already started.
308
00:06:23.000 --> 00:06:24.239
We are way,
309
00:06:24.480 --> 00:06:25.220
way off
310
00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:27.739
our all-time highs after the war.
311
00:06:28.119 --> 00:06:29.529
What typically would happen in a war,
312
00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:29.950
you have a,
313
00:06:30.019 --> 00:06:30.109
a,
314
00:06:30.399 --> 00:06:30.489
a,
315
00:06:30.559 --> 00:06:31.779
a gas price shock,
316
00:06:31.920 --> 00:06:32.260
right?
317
00:06:33.170 --> 00:06:33.989
And then,
318
00:06:34.649 --> 00:06:35.000
we,
319
00:06:35.049 --> 00:06:35.399
uh,
320
00:06:35.570 --> 00:06:36.880
you learn to,
321
00:06:36.929 --> 00:06:37.709
uh,
322
00:06:38.049 --> 00:06:38.829
adjust,
323
00:06:39.000 --> 00:06:39.559
uh,
324
00:06:39.570 --> 00:06:40.170
that with that,
325
00:06:40.250 --> 00:06:40.450
right?
326
00:06:40.570 --> 00:06:42.950
People start rerouting the gasoline prices
327
00:06:43.250 --> 00:06:44.190
and everything else.
328
00:06:44.529 --> 00:06:45.130
Um.
329
00:06:47.160 --> 00:06:47.609
If
330
00:06:49.029 --> 00:06:49.470
I can't even,
331
00:06:49.700 --> 00:06:50.700
you can come back to me here for a second,
332
00:06:50.739 --> 00:06:50.980
guys.
333
00:06:51.100 --> 00:06:51.260
Um,
334
00:06:51.339 --> 00:06:51.410
I,
335
00:06:51.500 --> 00:06:51.579
I,
336
00:06:51.690 --> 00:06:52.399
I can't
337
00:06:52.579 --> 00:06:54.459
tell you how frustrating it is because that's when,
338
00:06:54.589 --> 00:06:57.519
that's the point I'm putting in a lot of my positions for the election.
339
00:06:57.779 --> 00:07:00.179
And I'm pretty comfortable with where I am in this election.
340
00:07:00.299 --> 00:07:01.059
We will find out how,
341
00:07:01.140 --> 00:07:02.339
how comfortable I am on panic day.
342
00:07:02.380 --> 00:07:04.679
I'm gonna have a lot of analysis to do this weekend to get ready for it.
343
00:07:05.010 --> 00:07:05.429
Um,
344
00:07:05.899 --> 00:07:07.119
but like a lot of these
345
00:07:07.250 --> 00:07:09.220
these positions that I would be really,
346
00:07:09.339 --> 00:07:09.579
really,
347
00:07:09.660 --> 00:07:11.429
really happy with were based on,
348
00:07:11.500 --> 00:07:11.779
OK,
349
00:07:11.859 --> 00:07:13.040
we came off the peak,
350
00:07:13.290 --> 00:07:14.420
and it's coming back down.
351
00:07:14.880 --> 00:07:17.279
And there's no reason for it to go back up again,
352
00:07:17.399 --> 00:07:17.519
right?
353
00:07:17.559 --> 00:07:19.989
We've already started to adjust our oil's being rerouted,
354
00:07:20.040 --> 00:07:20.980
all these other things.
355
00:07:21.359 --> 00:07:23.109
And that's where I was and made those decisions there.
356
00:07:23.160 --> 00:07:23.440
I,
357
00:07:23.519 --> 00:07:26.579
I will say I didn't see another new peak after that.
358
00:07:26.880 --> 00:07:27.839
And if you go back to the chart,
359
00:07:27.880 --> 00:07:29.589
you can see that peak come in.
360
00:07:29.880 --> 00:07:30.959
The peak does hit,
361
00:07:31.000 --> 00:07:31.350
uh,
362
00:07:31.440 --> 00:07:31.670
and like,
363
00:07:31.709 --> 00:07:31.839
you know,
364
00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:34.200
it rhymes back up and kind of bumps up and down.
365
00:07:34.290 --> 00:07:34.600
Keep going,
366
00:07:34.739 --> 00:07:35.000
keep going,
367
00:07:35.119 --> 00:07:37.000
keep going to that highest next peak right there,
368
00:07:37.079 --> 00:07:37.500
which is
369
00:07:37.959 --> 00:07:39.119
now September 14th.
370
00:07:39.750 --> 00:07:41.670
September 14th is at 352 a gallon.
371
00:07:41.700 --> 00:07:42.730
It's lower than the Biden,
372
00:07:42.829 --> 00:07:42.980
uh,
373
00:07:42.989 --> 00:07:43.450
peak.
374
00:07:43.589 --> 00:07:45.470
It's lower than the previous Trump peak.
375
00:07:46.309 --> 00:07:48.630
But it is a peak of most recent memory.
376
00:07:48.709 --> 00:07:49.899
That is about a month ago,
377
00:07:50.000 --> 00:07:50.190
OK?
378
00:07:50.269 --> 00:07:51.059
And we're all sitting around,
379
00:07:51.149 --> 00:07:53.489
it's at 352 a gallon.
380
00:07:54.010 --> 00:07:54.670
Since then though,
381
00:07:54.750 --> 00:07:55.750
we have had a drop off.
382
00:07:55.829 --> 00:07:57.950
Go into the last like a month or so here,
383
00:07:58.029 --> 00:07:58.350
Adam,
384
00:07:58.429 --> 00:07:58.890
uh,
385
00:07:58.910 --> 00:08:00.130
in this chart if we could.
386
00:08:00.510 --> 00:08:00.709
Uh,
387
00:08:00.790 --> 00:08:01.609
last month,
388
00:08:01.670 --> 00:08:02.369
um,
389
00:08:02.750 --> 00:08:03.869
I don't know if you can zoom into the month,
390
00:08:03.910 --> 00:08:05.500
it might be easier for all of us to,
391
00:08:05.549 --> 00:08:05.750
uh,
392
00:08:05.869 --> 00:08:07.989
to see if you click that little fancy button over there.
393
00:08:08.049 --> 00:08:08.429
There we go.
394
00:08:08.649 --> 00:08:09.029
So last month,
395
00:08:09.070 --> 00:08:09.429
you see,
396
00:08:09.549 --> 00:08:11.109
it goes up to about 360,
397
00:08:11.510 --> 00:08:11.829
almost over,
398
00:08:11.940 --> 00:08:12.809
so 360,
399
00:08:12.989 --> 00:08:14.750
but it's now down to 325.
400
00:08:15.339 --> 00:08:16.739
So we've knocked off about 30,
401
00:08:16.820 --> 00:08:18.779
40 cents from those peaks.
402
00:08:19.660 --> 00:08:21.070
We're not seeing a precipitous drop,
403
00:08:21.190 --> 00:08:22.709
but we are seeing a drop
404
00:08:22.910 --> 00:08:25.579
in in about the last month or so.
405
00:08:25.829 --> 00:08:26.109
Now,
406
00:08:26.220 --> 00:08:26.459
uh,
407
00:08:26.549 --> 00:08:28.790
let me look at the Calci market on gas prices.
408
00:08:28.829 --> 00:08:30.190
You'll see kind of a similar thing.
409
00:08:30.269 --> 00:08:32.609
What are people believing the gas prices are going to be?
410
00:08:32.940 --> 00:08:33.058
Uh,
411
00:08:33.109 --> 00:08:33.659
you'll see,
412
00:08:33.669 --> 00:08:33.820
uh,
413
00:08:33.849 --> 00:08:36.609
a similar type of drop in this particular,
414
00:08:36.669 --> 00:08:36.890
uh,
415
00:08:36.909 --> 00:08:37.510
chart.
416
00:08:37.859 --> 00:08:38.150
Uh,
417
00:08:38.229 --> 00:08:38.659
there you go.
418
00:08:38.760 --> 00:08:38.989
Uh,
419
00:08:39.070 --> 00:08:39.979
what are the gas prices gonna be?
420
00:08:40.030 --> 00:08:40.190
You know,
421
00:08:40.229 --> 00:08:40.909
you see it going down,
422
00:08:40.950 --> 00:08:43.010
they think it's gonna be around 433,
423
00:08:43.020 --> 00:08:43.239
uh,
424
00:08:43.530 --> 00:08:43.539
per,
425
00:08:43.669 --> 00:08:44.150
per gallon.
426
00:08:44.219 --> 00:08:44.469
And again,
427
00:08:44.510 --> 00:08:45.500
these are different measures,
428
00:08:45.510 --> 00:08:45.700
as,
429
00:08:45.770 --> 00:08:46.229
as of course,
430
00:08:46.270 --> 00:08:46.700
you know.
431
00:08:46.950 --> 00:08:47.289
Now,
432
00:08:48.020 --> 00:08:48.549
Question is,
433
00:08:48.669 --> 00:08:49.450
is it possible
434
00:08:49.989 --> 00:08:52.880
for gas prices to continue to drop over the next 3 weeks?
435
00:08:53.150 --> 00:08:55.340
Let's just say they continue the rate that they're at over the,
436
00:08:55.549 --> 00:08:57.710
they're doing what they did in the last month over the next,
437
00:08:57.789 --> 00:08:58.429
uh,
438
00:08:58.440 --> 00:08:58.469
uh,
439
00:08:58.510 --> 00:08:59.330
next few
440
00:08:59.630 --> 00:08:59.979
weeks.
441
00:09:01.239 --> 00:09:03.059
Probably puts you south overall
442
00:09:03.640 --> 00:09:04.979
of $3 a gallon
443
00:09:05.429 --> 00:09:06.840
on that particular price measure.
444
00:09:08.840 --> 00:09:09.080
Do,
445
00:09:09.239 --> 00:09:09.400
you know,
446
00:09:09.510 --> 00:09:09.679
if,
447
00:09:09.719 --> 00:09:09.869
you know,
448
00:09:09.919 --> 00:09:13.320
that 433 gallon that you saw there probably is more like 350,
449
00:09:13.400 --> 00:09:14.080
360.
450
00:09:15.900 --> 00:09:17.760
That's gonna feel like relief to a lot of people.
451
00:09:17.869 --> 00:09:18.030
And,
452
00:09:18.140 --> 00:09:18.630
and again,
453
00:09:18.710 --> 00:09:22.059
we're not looking about trying to convince 20% of the population here.
454
00:09:22.109 --> 00:09:23.090
You're looking about
455
00:09:23.580 --> 00:09:24.809
1 or 2%.
456
00:09:25.109 --> 00:09:29.669
Are 1 or 2% of this possible that 1 or 1 to 2% of those people who are thinking right now,
457
00:09:29.789 --> 00:09:29.909
gosh,
458
00:09:29.950 --> 00:09:31.309
I'm gonna go towards the left,
459
00:09:31.789 --> 00:09:32.830
see a drop price and say,
460
00:09:32.909 --> 00:09:33.070
OK,
461
00:09:33.169 --> 00:09:34.229
maybe it was temporary.
462
00:09:34.270 --> 00:09:35.630
I don't want to overreact about this.
463
00:09:35.710 --> 00:09:36.650
I'm gonna come back home
464
00:09:37.109 --> 00:09:38.830
if they happen to be either Republican
465
00:09:38.830 --> 00:09:40.869
voters or independent voters that lean Republican.
466
00:09:41.880 --> 00:09:43.640
Could be enough in some of these key races.
467
00:09:43.770 --> 00:09:46.609
You see the same type of thing happening with diesel fuel.
468
00:09:46.960 --> 00:09:47.200
Um,
469
00:09:47.330 --> 00:09:48.010
diesel fuel is,
470
00:09:48.090 --> 00:09:50.289
this is the business insider version of this chart.
471
00:09:50.330 --> 00:09:51.450
You see a big peak,
472
00:09:51.729 --> 00:09:51.869
uh,
473
00:09:51.929 --> 00:09:52.239
here,
474
00:09:52.250 --> 00:09:53.390
not that long ago.
475
00:09:53.489 --> 00:09:53.650
Uh,
476
00:09:53.729 --> 00:09:54.599
what was that peak like,
477
00:09:54.640 --> 00:09:54.969
uh,
478
00:09:55.090 --> 00:09:55.250
Adam,
479
00:09:55.330 --> 00:09:55.400
what,
480
00:09:55.489 --> 00:09:56.150
what date was that?
481
00:09:56.250 --> 00:09:56.530
Uh,
482
00:09:56.650 --> 00:09:56.719
yeah,
483
00:09:56.969 --> 00:09:57.789
about a month ago.
484
00:09:58.239 --> 00:10:01.929
We're down from 283 in this measure to today.
485
00:10:02.280 --> 00:10:05.239
The price is uh 254.
486
00:10:05.359 --> 00:10:06.919
So 283 to 254.
487
00:10:07.119 --> 00:10:07.349
Again,
488
00:10:07.440 --> 00:10:08.780
these are high prices
489
00:10:08.919 --> 00:10:09.599
historically.
490
00:10:09.619 --> 00:10:11.080
If we zoom back out to the max here,
491
00:10:11.159 --> 00:10:12.039
you can see they're way,
492
00:10:12.159 --> 00:10:12.280
way,
493
00:10:12.400 --> 00:10:13.219
way up from
494
00:10:13.440 --> 00:10:14.059
what we've seen,
495
00:10:14.150 --> 00:10:14.640
uh,
496
00:10:14.960 --> 00:10:15.159
you know,
497
00:10:15.320 --> 00:10:15.960
recently
498
00:10:16.200 --> 00:10:16.760
on these charts.
499
00:10:16.840 --> 00:10:17.000
I mean,
500
00:10:17.159 --> 00:10:17.270
look,
501
00:10:17.320 --> 00:10:17.559
this is,
502
00:10:17.640 --> 00:10:18.409
these are peaks.
503
00:10:18.799 --> 00:10:21.020
But we are way off the ultimate peak,
504
00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:21.359
uh,
505
00:10:21.440 --> 00:10:24.960
that was relatively recent and fast dropping prices do.
506
00:10:25.659 --> 00:10:27.580
Tend to give people a little bit of amnesia,
507
00:10:27.859 --> 00:10:28.140
which is,
508
00:10:28.179 --> 00:10:28.700
I think what,
509
00:10:28.739 --> 00:10:29.010
of course,
510
00:10:29.059 --> 00:10:30.309
the Republicans and presidents are,
511
00:10:30.419 --> 00:10:31.340
would be looking for.
512
00:10:31.580 --> 00:10:31.859
Um,
513
00:10:32.059 --> 00:10:33.179
heating oil is another one.
514
00:10:33.299 --> 00:10:35.130
This is gonna hit up in the Northeast very,
515
00:10:35.190 --> 00:10:35.609
very soon.
516
00:10:35.659 --> 00:10:36.520
It's gonna get very cold.
517
00:10:36.979 --> 00:10:37.190
Um,
518
00:10:37.299 --> 00:10:38.059
and when that happens,
519
00:10:38.130 --> 00:10:39.239
people need their heating oil.
520
00:10:39.460 --> 00:10:39.690
Uh,
521
00:10:39.780 --> 00:10:40.979
the same type of thing is we're,
522
00:10:41.059 --> 00:10:41.140
we,
523
00:10:41.219 --> 00:10:41.809
we are seeing,
524
00:10:41.869 --> 00:10:41.880
oh,
525
00:10:41.979 --> 00:10:42.619
we're off of that,
526
00:10:42.690 --> 00:10:43.580
we're a little bit higher,
527
00:10:43.619 --> 00:10:45.320
and you expect a little bit of a rise here,
528
00:10:45.380 --> 00:10:45.820
of course,
529
00:10:46.059 --> 00:10:47.099
as you get into colder season,
530
00:10:47.219 --> 00:10:47.479
but
531
00:10:47.580 --> 00:10:48.780
we are off the peak there,
532
00:10:48.820 --> 00:10:49.700
at least a little bit.
533
00:10:49.780 --> 00:10:50.280
OK.
534
00:10:50.979 --> 00:10:51.760
I wanna move on to,
535
00:10:51.859 --> 00:10:52.169
uh,
536
00:10:52.179 --> 00:10:53.780
inflation because that's another big part of this.
537
00:10:54.159 --> 00:10:56.059
And I wanna put this in perspective for you because
538
00:10:56.479 --> 00:10:59.349
there is a lot of uh doomerism about inflation,
539
00:10:59.640 --> 00:10:59.919
but I,
540
00:11:00.000 --> 00:11:01.599
I really wanna put this in context.
541
00:11:01.710 --> 00:11:01.799
I,
542
00:11:01.880 --> 00:11:03.799
I think it's important for you to understand and
543
00:11:03.799 --> 00:11:05.179
maybe you can share this with your friends,
544
00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:05.909
uh,
545
00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:06.780
understand exactly
546
00:11:07.400 --> 00:11:08.260
how we got here.
547
00:11:08.520 --> 00:11:09.440
Do we have the next chart?
548
00:11:09.479 --> 00:11:10.280
This is a chart that we,
549
00:11:10.359 --> 00:11:12.760
we'll put this up on predictableShow.com so you can,
550
00:11:12.840 --> 00:11:13.239
you can have it.
551
00:11:13.309 --> 00:11:15.159
Maybe we can even put it up as an interactive.
552
00:11:15.479 --> 00:11:18.479
This is putting in uh inflation into context.
553
00:11:18.880 --> 00:11:20.539
And the way I built this was,
554
00:11:20.840 --> 00:11:21.460
uh,
555
00:11:21.640 --> 00:11:22.179
let's say,
556
00:11:22.340 --> 00:11:22.349
and,
557
00:11:22.440 --> 00:11:22.559
you know,
558
00:11:22.719 --> 00:11:23.669
Biden takes the presidency,
559
00:11:23.690 --> 00:11:25.179
you're spending $100 on something.
560
00:11:25.349 --> 00:11:26.500
What does that thing cost today?
561
00:11:26.880 --> 00:11:29.159
That's the easiest way to understand that we're using inflation.
562
00:11:29.280 --> 00:11:29.559
So,
563
00:11:29.989 --> 00:11:30.159
give it,
564
00:11:30.299 --> 00:11:31.070
give me number one here,
565
00:11:31.150 --> 00:11:31.400
Adam.
566
00:11:31.549 --> 00:11:33.880
This will draw in the inflation line from the beginning.
567
00:11:33.919 --> 00:11:34.440
And you see,
568
00:11:34.520 --> 00:11:34.950
obviously,
569
00:11:34.960 --> 00:11:35.520
we are up,
570
00:11:35.640 --> 00:11:35.809
right?
571
00:11:35.869 --> 00:11:36.659
You can see
572
00:11:36.919 --> 00:11:37.859
very clearly that
573
00:11:38.039 --> 00:11:41.440
something that took $100 at the beginning of the Biden presidency
574
00:11:41.690 --> 00:11:43.960
now is $128.80
575
00:11:44.880 --> 00:11:45.679
as of today.
576
00:11:46.150 --> 00:11:47.229
And that is a lot more,
577
00:11:47.359 --> 00:11:49.359
and that's a big reason why people feel pain.
578
00:11:49.440 --> 00:11:50.919
They feel like prices are really,
579
00:11:51.000 --> 00:11:51.520
really high,
580
00:11:51.539 --> 00:11:53.020
and that's understandable and true.
581
00:11:53.520 --> 00:11:53.780
However,
582
00:11:53.840 --> 00:11:56.080
it's important to understand how that happened.
583
00:11:56.239 --> 00:11:57.619
It is crucial to understand
584
00:11:57.840 --> 00:11:58.789
how that happened.
585
00:11:59.119 --> 00:12:00.059
We all expect,
586
00:12:00.400 --> 00:12:00.559
you know,
587
00:12:00.669 --> 00:12:02.340
let's say about a 3%,
588
00:12:02.789 --> 00:12:03.299
uh,
589
00:12:03.320 --> 00:12:05.549
increase in in in inflation every year,
590
00:12:05.559 --> 00:12:06.080
to give a,
591
00:12:06.200 --> 00:12:06.359
you know,
592
00:12:06.520 --> 00:12:08.239
sort of a baseline number.
593
00:12:08.669 --> 00:12:11.309
But as we all might remember if we really think about it,
594
00:12:11.479 --> 00:12:14.679
that's not at all what we saw in the 1st 18 months of Joe Biden.
595
00:12:14.750 --> 00:12:16.239
He's turning on the COVID faucets,
596
00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:17.440
they're spending all over the place,
597
00:12:17.479 --> 00:12:19.700
we're putting trillions of dollars into the economy,
598
00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:21.719
and we are paying a price for that today.
599
00:12:21.799 --> 00:12:22.799
So look at the Biden surge,
600
00:12:22.909 --> 00:12:23.619
it's number 2,
601
00:12:24.080 --> 00:12:26.520
the 1st 18 months of the Biden presidency,
602
00:12:26.760 --> 00:12:28.419
and you see that line draw in,
603
00:12:28.760 --> 00:12:28.909
uh,
604
00:12:29.000 --> 00:12:31.289
that is 9.2%
605
00:12:31.469 --> 00:12:32.219
per year.
606
00:12:32.640 --> 00:12:35.020
9.2% per year in the 1st 18 months,
607
00:12:35.109 --> 00:12:35.820
that's the ratio.
608
00:12:36.469 --> 00:12:37.669
For the Biden inflation.
609
00:12:37.710 --> 00:12:38.150
And you might think,
610
00:12:38.260 --> 00:12:38.380
well,
611
00:12:38.460 --> 00:12:38.669
OK,
612
00:12:38.789 --> 00:12:38.859
what,
613
00:12:38.989 --> 00:12:39.950
what's happened after that?
614
00:12:40.070 --> 00:12:41.030
Remember what I was talking about,
615
00:12:41.109 --> 00:12:43.010
3% is about what you expect
616
00:12:43.169 --> 00:12:43.890
for inflation.
617
00:12:44.109 --> 00:12:45.869
If you bring in a line number 3 here,
618
00:12:45.950 --> 00:12:46.190
Adam,
619
00:12:46.270 --> 00:12:47.169
you will see
620
00:12:47.510 --> 00:12:51.340
what the chart has looked like for ever since that 1st 18 months,
621
00:12:51.789 --> 00:12:54.390
and that chart is 3.1% per year.
622
00:12:55.179 --> 00:12:57.419
We got massive inflation.
623
00:12:57.510 --> 00:12:59.010
We built these prices way,
624
00:12:59.109 --> 00:12:59.580
way up,
625
00:12:59.630 --> 00:13:01.330
9.2% per year,
626
00:13:01.669 --> 00:13:03.299
and everything after that
627
00:13:03.510 --> 00:13:06.270
has honestly been pretty unremarkable.
628
00:13:06.750 --> 00:13:09.000
We're at about a 3% inflation rate
629
00:13:09.349 --> 00:13:09.770
from,
630
00:13:09.890 --> 00:13:10.299
uh,
631
00:13:10.309 --> 00:13:11.700
June 2022
632
00:13:12.109 --> 00:13:12.729
to today.
633
00:13:14.239 --> 00:13:17.080
We had 9.2% that 1st 18 months,
634
00:13:17.289 --> 00:13:20.159
but only 3.1% per year since.
635
00:13:20.320 --> 00:13:23.229
3.1% is almost exactly what you'd expect.
636
00:13:23.559 --> 00:13:25.919
I wanna give you another way of looking at this chart.
637
00:13:26.039 --> 00:13:27.359
Take a 2 and 3 off and,
638
00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:27.630
and,
639
00:13:27.679 --> 00:13:27.880
uh,
640
00:13:27.989 --> 00:13:29.539
and I wanna bring in 4 here in a second.
641
00:13:29.640 --> 00:13:32.219
This is just a linear line from the very beginning.
642
00:13:32.669 --> 00:13:33.190
Of,
643
00:13:33.229 --> 00:13:33.619
uh,
644
00:13:33.750 --> 00:13:35.880
the Biden presidency to where we are today.
645
00:13:36.070 --> 00:13:38.140
And I'm drawing this line across here for,
646
00:13:38.400 --> 00:13:38.580
for,
647
00:13:38.619 --> 00:13:38.830
uh,
648
00:13:38.900 --> 00:13:39.830
podcast listeners.
649
00:13:40.150 --> 00:13:41.950
It's just basically a straight line from beginning to end.
650
00:13:42.000 --> 00:13:42.690
So give me number 4.
651
00:13:43.830 --> 00:13:43.989
you,
652
00:13:44.070 --> 00:13:44.929
you see how this dries,
653
00:13:45.179 --> 00:13:45.669
it draws in.
654
00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:48.919
That would be if,
655
00:13:49.020 --> 00:13:49.440
uh,
656
00:13:49.640 --> 00:13:51.960
if we went an exact straight line from
657
00:13:51.960 --> 00:13:53.909
the beginning of the Biden presidency to today.
658
00:13:53.989 --> 00:13:55.020
What you see
659
00:13:55.280 --> 00:13:55.820
is
660
00:13:56.400 --> 00:13:59.580
all that gain on inflation above normal
661
00:14:00.119 --> 00:14:01.539
is all happening
662
00:14:01.760 --> 00:14:03.460
in the Biden presidency.
663
00:14:04.270 --> 00:14:04.929
All of it.
664
00:14:05.390 --> 00:14:07.679
It's all occurring in the Biden presidency.
665
00:14:08.109 --> 00:14:09.989
And we come back to basically on that line,
666
00:14:10.070 --> 00:14:11.270
there's ups and downs here,
667
00:14:11.309 --> 00:14:11.750
and honestly,
668
00:14:11.869 --> 00:14:15.650
Trump would have been doing much better than this line had he not done the Iran war.
669
00:14:15.710 --> 00:14:15.869
I mean,
670
00:14:15.940 --> 00:14:17.729
you can take him to account for that if you'd like.
671
00:14:17.950 --> 00:14:18.210
But
672
00:14:18.349 --> 00:14:18.909
generally speaking,
673
00:14:18.979 --> 00:14:19.890
you look at this and
674
00:14:20.080 --> 00:14:20.609
we are
675
00:14:20.950 --> 00:14:22.710
where we should be in the Trump presidency,
676
00:14:22.830 --> 00:14:24.849
where we had the gains were all
677
00:14:25.150 --> 00:14:25.869
in the Biden years.
678
00:14:25.950 --> 00:14:27.250
You can see that quite clearly
679
00:14:27.510 --> 00:14:28.059
in this chart.
680
00:14:28.140 --> 00:14:28.270
OK,
681
00:14:28.309 --> 00:14:29.229
you can take off 4 for a second.
682
00:14:29.280 --> 00:14:30.380
I want to explain what I'm doing with,
683
00:14:30.429 --> 00:14:30.590
uh,
684
00:14:30.710 --> 00:14:31.169
the 5.
685
00:14:32.369 --> 00:14:34.080
No one can expect zero inflation,
686
00:14:34.330 --> 00:14:34.489
OK?
687
00:14:34.580 --> 00:14:37.960
No president should be held to the account of having zero inflation,
688
00:14:37.969 --> 00:14:38.510
of course.
689
00:14:39.039 --> 00:14:39.429
And
690
00:14:39.609 --> 00:14:44.159
I wanted to kind of test what this would look like if Biden had just done a normal job.
691
00:14:44.330 --> 00:14:44.450
Like,
692
00:14:44.530 --> 00:14:46.710
so let's say there was only 3% per year
693
00:14:47.169 --> 00:14:49.099
during the Biden presidency,
694
00:14:49.530 --> 00:14:51.130
what would that chart look like?
695
00:14:51.179 --> 00:14:51.409
And again,
696
00:14:51.450 --> 00:14:53.270
we'll put this up at predictableShow.com.
697
00:14:53.570 --> 00:14:54.210
That's number 5,
698
00:14:54.270 --> 00:14:54.570
Adam.
699
00:14:54.729 --> 00:14:55.809
Look at when this draws in,
700
00:14:55.890 --> 00:14:57.049
you see the difference.
701
00:14:57.090 --> 00:14:58.390
I left Trump exactly
702
00:14:58.530 --> 00:14:59.489
with his real numbers.
703
00:14:59.570 --> 00:15:01.049
This is what Trump has actually done.
704
00:15:01.679 --> 00:15:02.880
But the Biden numbers,
705
00:15:03.090 --> 00:15:07.070
he's so far above 3% for his presidency,
706
00:15:07.409 --> 00:15:10.020
that it winds up creating a massive gap
707
00:15:10.520 --> 00:15:13.150
between the prices you feel you should be paying,
708
00:15:13.609 --> 00:15:14.469
and the prices
709
00:15:14.570 --> 00:15:15.750
that you are paying.
710
00:15:16.289 --> 00:15:19.349
Prices now are 7.9% higher
711
00:15:19.929 --> 00:15:22.940
than what they should have been if Biden was basically average.
712
00:15:23.929 --> 00:15:25.599
That's the pain you're feeling.
713
00:15:26.219 --> 00:15:28.419
That's what you're feeling on a day to day basis.
714
00:15:28.479 --> 00:15:29.090
When you're thinking like,
715
00:15:29.130 --> 00:15:31.289
this doesn't feel like 2 or 3% uh inflation,
716
00:15:31.340 --> 00:15:32.380
it feels like 8%.
717
00:15:32.539 --> 00:15:33.880
That's the gap you're feeling.
718
00:15:34.380 --> 00:15:35.799
The feeling all comes
719
00:15:36.140 --> 00:15:38.140
from that 2021,
720
00:15:38.380 --> 00:15:38.530
uh,
721
00:15:38.539 --> 00:15:40.219
into 2022 period,
722
00:15:40.419 --> 00:15:42.320
where we were just absolutely
723
00:15:43.460 --> 00:15:46.679
blowing it out like we were at a freaking nightclub,
724
00:15:47.020 --> 00:15:48.580
spending money like crazy.
725
00:15:48.869 --> 00:15:52.169
And we got to a point where we had 9% per year inflation
726
00:15:52.349 --> 00:15:53.340
for a year and a half.
727
00:15:53.789 --> 00:15:54.729
That's the difference.
728
00:15:55.030 --> 00:15:56.979
That's the difference you'll also note from,
729
00:15:56.989 --> 00:15:57.219
uh,
730
00:15:57.229 --> 00:15:57.520
your,
731
00:15:57.609 --> 00:15:57.780
uh,
732
00:15:57.789 --> 00:15:58.710
your housing prices,
733
00:15:58.770 --> 00:15:58.950
you,
734
00:15:59.039 --> 00:16:00.500
when you had those rates shoot up,
735
00:16:00.559 --> 00:16:01.859
they haven't come back down yet.
736
00:16:02.109 --> 00:16:03.729
They all shot up in that period.
737
00:16:04.270 --> 00:16:07.289
All of this comes together to tell you a different picture.
738
00:16:07.510 --> 00:16:08.500
And I think it's something that maybe,
739
00:16:08.619 --> 00:16:08.739
you know,
740
00:16:08.789 --> 00:16:10.250
it's important to show to,
741
00:16:10.270 --> 00:16:10.739
uh,
742
00:16:10.750 --> 00:16:10.940
your,
743
00:16:10.989 --> 00:16:11.630
your friends.
744
00:16:13.440 --> 00:16:14.059
You can
745
00:16:14.200 --> 00:16:15.039
definitely question,
746
00:16:15.080 --> 00:16:15.679
and I have,
747
00:16:15.789 --> 00:16:15.840
uh,
748
00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:16.099
many,
749
00:16:16.119 --> 00:16:16.630
many times,
750
00:16:16.760 --> 00:16:16.840
uh,
751
00:16:16.919 --> 00:16:18.559
some of the decisions Donald Trump has made.
752
00:16:18.679 --> 00:16:18.739
I,
753
00:16:18.799 --> 00:16:18.919
you know,
754
00:16:19.030 --> 00:16:19.200
I,
755
00:16:19.280 --> 00:16:19.710
uh,
756
00:16:19.960 --> 00:16:22.229
Iran's the obvious one that a lot of people talk about,
757
00:16:22.320 --> 00:16:22.450
but,
758
00:16:22.479 --> 00:16:22.599
you know,
759
00:16:22.640 --> 00:16:22.830
I'm,
760
00:16:22.880 --> 00:16:22.950
I,
761
00:16:23.070 --> 00:16:24.789
I'm not a tariff guy at all.
762
00:16:25.000 --> 00:16:26.229
I don't think that was a good decision,
763
00:16:26.239 --> 00:16:26.630
and I'm,
764
00:16:26.640 --> 00:16:28.409
I'm never gonna agree with those policies.
765
00:16:29.119 --> 00:16:31.140
There's a lot of different things you can question
766
00:16:31.400 --> 00:16:32.520
about Trump's time in office,
767
00:16:32.599 --> 00:16:35.559
but it is important to understand if you're kind of in that place where you feel like,
768
00:16:35.640 --> 00:16:35.799
gosh,
769
00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:37.119
prices are out of control and Trump's,
770
00:16:37.200 --> 00:16:37.900
Trump's done nothing,
771
00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:38.469
uh,
772
00:16:38.570 --> 00:16:38.679
to,
773
00:16:38.770 --> 00:16:39.719
to do anything about that.
774
00:16:40.460 --> 00:16:40.820
Uh,
775
00:16:40.940 --> 00:16:40.969
I,
776
00:16:41.099 --> 00:16:41.289
I mean,
777
00:16:41.419 --> 00:16:41.739
uh,
778
00:16:42.020 --> 00:16:42.179
the,
779
00:16:42.299 --> 00:16:44.299
what you're feeling is not from Donald Trump.
780
00:16:44.380 --> 00:16:45.419
That is a Biden problem,
781
00:16:45.489 --> 00:16:45.780
an,
782
00:16:46.539 --> 00:16:47.280
an archive
783
00:16:48.140 --> 00:16:48.599
of,
784
00:16:48.739 --> 00:16:49.940
of Joe Biden
785
00:16:50.140 --> 00:16:52.700
rising those prices back in early 2021 and 20202.
786
00:16:52.809 --> 00:16:54.580
And if you want to even be nice to Joe Biden,
787
00:16:54.630 --> 00:16:55.219
who's an old,
788
00:16:55.260 --> 00:16:55.580
uh,
789
00:16:55.659 --> 00:16:55.940
uh,
790
00:16:56.059 --> 00:16:56.299
what would they,
791
00:16:56.380 --> 00:16:57.140
what do they call him in the,
792
00:16:57.179 --> 00:16:57.340
uh,
793
00:16:57.460 --> 00:16:57.940
deposition,
794
00:16:58.010 --> 00:16:59.380
a kindly old gentleman,
795
00:16:59.700 --> 00:16:59.820
uh,
796
00:16:59.890 --> 00:17:00.880
with a poor memory,
797
00:17:01.250 --> 00:17:01.619
um,
798
00:17:02.020 --> 00:17:02.289
you know,
799
00:17:02.460 --> 00:17:02.840
COVID,
800
00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:03.140
right?
801
00:17:03.260 --> 00:17:03.520
COVID,
802
00:17:03.570 --> 00:17:03.969
like,
803
00:17:03.979 --> 00:17:04.310
take it out,
804
00:17:04.459 --> 00:17:05.339
take it out of Biden if you want.
805
00:17:05.420 --> 00:17:05.630
If you don't want,
806
00:17:05.790 --> 00:17:06.810
if you want to make this nonpartisan,
807
00:17:06.858 --> 00:17:07.819
that's totally fine with me.
808
00:17:08.529 --> 00:17:10.749
COVID was a unique freaking thing.
809
00:17:11.009 --> 00:17:12.409
It really changed our country,
810
00:17:12.489 --> 00:17:14.218
it really changed our economy,
811
00:17:14.568 --> 00:17:18.448
and to understand where we are when it comes to housing prices,
812
00:17:18.568 --> 00:17:20.368
when it comes to uh inflation,
813
00:17:20.718 --> 00:17:23.628
you have to take that period into account and understand
814
00:17:23.808 --> 00:17:24.667
what has happened
815
00:17:24.928 --> 00:17:25.188
since.
816
00:17:25.968 --> 00:17:27.239
There's a lot of policies I disagree with.
817
00:17:27.288 --> 00:17:29.048
I hate our spending policies in this country,
818
00:17:29.129 --> 00:17:29.279
uh,
819
00:17:29.369 --> 00:17:31.119
both sides suck at that.
820
00:17:31.208 --> 00:17:31.448
Uh,
821
00:17:31.529 --> 00:17:34.159
there's a lot of different things that I can't stand that are going on,
822
00:17:34.409 --> 00:17:36.208
but it is important to understand the context of it.
823
00:17:36.540 --> 00:17:36.699
Uh,
824
00:17:36.819 --> 00:17:38.300
so that we can look at this election and,
825
00:17:38.359 --> 00:17:38.800
and see,
826
00:17:39.060 --> 00:17:39.180
you know,
827
00:17:39.219 --> 00:17:39.420
if you're,
828
00:17:39.530 --> 00:17:41.959
if you're looking to convince your friends that might be,
829
00:17:42.060 --> 00:17:42.170
uh,
830
00:17:42.260 --> 00:17:42.420
you know,
831
00:17:42.500 --> 00:17:44.739
a piece of data that you want to dive into.
832
00:17:45.099 --> 00:17:45.209
Uh,
833
00:17:45.290 --> 00:17:46.540
but also just to understand,
834
00:17:46.699 --> 00:17:46.859
you know,
835
00:17:46.939 --> 00:17:47.180
if,
836
00:17:47.260 --> 00:17:48.459
if we have a,
837
00:17:48.579 --> 00:17:48.920
a,
838
00:17:48.969 --> 00:17:50.319
a break in gas prices,
839
00:17:51.260 --> 00:17:53.000
we could see enough
840
00:17:53.339 --> 00:17:53.979
of a,
841
00:17:54.040 --> 00:17:54.219
uh,
842
00:17:54.270 --> 00:17:55.420
a tinge in the,
843
00:17:55.479 --> 00:17:55.739
uh,
844
00:17:55.819 --> 00:17:55.939
in,
845
00:17:56.050 --> 00:17:56.260
in the,
846
00:17:56.380 --> 00:17:58.079
the fringes of this election.
847
00:17:58.619 --> 00:17:59.680
And if that happens,
848
00:17:59.900 --> 00:18:01.000
it's very possible
849
00:18:01.420 --> 00:18:01.900
that
850
00:18:02.339 --> 00:18:04.829
instead of seeing the massive blue tsunami that we see.
851
00:18:05.339 --> 00:18:05.780
Uh,
852
00:18:05.869 --> 00:18:06.829
we might see something less.
853
00:18:06.949 --> 00:18:07.140
This,
854
00:18:07.189 --> 00:18:07.589
I don't,
855
00:18:07.709 --> 00:18:08.229
I'll be honest with you,
856
00:18:08.310 --> 00:18:09.410
I don't think this saves the house.
857
00:18:09.750 --> 00:18:09.869
Uh,
858
00:18:09.949 --> 00:18:10.229
if the,
859
00:18:10.339 --> 00:18:11.349
if gas prices come down,
860
00:18:11.430 --> 00:18:13.069
I still think Republicans will lose the House.
861
00:18:13.260 --> 00:18:13.829
The Senate,
862
00:18:14.150 --> 00:18:15.229
maybe they have a better shot on.
863
00:18:15.979 --> 00:18:18.650
A lot of people are looking for positive news for Republicans.
864
00:18:18.660 --> 00:18:19.380
A lot of people are looking,
865
00:18:19.439 --> 00:18:21.439
looking for positive news for Democrats.
866
00:18:21.939 --> 00:18:22.729
I do think that,
867
00:18:22.859 --> 00:18:23.060
you know,
868
00:18:23.300 --> 00:18:25.599
the next couple of weeks can still have an impact
869
00:18:25.979 --> 00:18:28.459
on what level of wave we see.
870
00:18:28.540 --> 00:18:29.319
Is it a ripple?
871
00:18:29.459 --> 00:18:30.479
Is it a tsunami?
872
00:18:30.979 --> 00:18:32.599
It could be anything from there and in between.
873
00:18:34.310 --> 00:18:35.699
The question is where,
874
00:18:35.709 --> 00:18:36.500
uh,
875
00:18:36.589 --> 00:18:37.329
where does this fall?
876
00:18:37.550 --> 00:18:37.829
And,
877
00:18:37.910 --> 00:18:38.229
uh,
878
00:18:38.339 --> 00:18:38.619
you know,
879
00:18:38.829 --> 00:18:39.260
knowing the
880
00:18:39.579 --> 00:18:42.699
the context of the data and understanding where the data is moving is really,
881
00:18:42.770 --> 00:18:43.390
really important,
882
00:18:43.709 --> 00:18:45.310
especially as you go into these election markets.
883
00:18:45.380 --> 00:18:46.170
We're gonna talk more
884
00:18:46.349 --> 00:18:46.930
about those
885
00:18:47.069 --> 00:18:47.709
here in just a second.
886
00:18:47.780 --> 00:18:49.829
We're gonna go through some of the Senate stuff with Dan Andros.
887
00:18:50.030 --> 00:18:52.729
We've also got a candidate of the day coming up and so much more
888
00:18:52.910 --> 00:18:54.089
right here on Predictable
889
00:18:54.189 --> 00:18:54.819
with Stu.
890
00:18:54.869 --> 00:18:56.469
PredictableShow.com.
891
00:19:14.359 --> 00:19:14.959
I want to bring in,
892
00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:15.199
uh,
893
00:19:15.359 --> 00:19:16.219
Dan Andros.
894
00:19:16.260 --> 00:19:17.069
Uh,
895
00:19:17.160 --> 00:19:20.180
he's a friend of the program and fantasy sports expert.
896
00:19:20.760 --> 00:19:21.239
Uh,
897
00:19:21.640 --> 00:19:21.829
Dan,
898
00:19:21.880 --> 00:19:23.359
how many championships have you won in our
899
00:19:23.359 --> 00:19:25.119
main fantasy Football league over the past,
900
00:19:25.239 --> 00:19:26.199
let's say 10 years?
901
00:19:27.109 --> 00:19:27.349
Well,
902
00:19:27.420 --> 00:19:31.650
we've been doing that league for I think 21 years now and um I've won one.
903
00:19:32.770 --> 00:19:32.869
When,
904
00:19:32.989 --> 00:19:33.130
when,
905
00:19:33.189 --> 00:19:33.310
when,
906
00:19:33.430 --> 00:19:34.219
what year was that,
907
00:19:34.229 --> 00:19:34.829
would you say?
908
00:19:34.869 --> 00:19:35.390
I am,
909
00:19:35.550 --> 00:19:37.130
that was the first year.
910
00:19:37.469 --> 00:19:38.140
Um,
911
00:19:38.790 --> 00:19:42.150
it's been a long suffering existence ever since then of
912
00:19:42.150 --> 00:19:45.069
several finals appearances and a lot of second places.
913
00:19:45.109 --> 00:19:46.270
I've got a handful of those,
914
00:19:46.430 --> 00:19:46.630
but,
915
00:19:46.699 --> 00:19:47.180
uh,
916
00:19:47.630 --> 00:19:48.189
just can't.
917
00:19:48.939 --> 00:19:49.189
Listen,
918
00:19:49.300 --> 00:19:49.310
uh,
919
00:19:49.390 --> 00:19:49.869
you're bringing up,
920
00:19:49.939 --> 00:19:50.790
you're triggering me here,
921
00:19:50.949 --> 00:19:51.109
Stu.
922
00:19:51.180 --> 00:19:53.229
I'm automatically thinking of the one point loss
923
00:19:53.229 --> 00:19:55.589
when Justin Jefferson could only get 2 points,
924
00:19:55.750 --> 00:19:56.589
2 points,
925
00:19:56.630 --> 00:19:58.369
and I lost a championship because of that.
926
00:19:58.510 --> 00:19:58.660
Uh,
927
00:19:59.469 --> 00:20:01.569
there's been several of those stories in your life.
928
00:20:01.670 --> 00:20:01.910
Uh,
929
00:20:02.030 --> 00:20:04.140
I'm definitely an expert in all the ways to lose.
930
00:20:04.229 --> 00:20:04.709
There's also a,
931
00:20:04.770 --> 00:20:06.609
wasn't there also a COVID injury,
932
00:20:06.670 --> 00:20:06.949
or no,
933
00:20:06.989 --> 00:20:08.709
it was the DeMar Hamlin,
934
00:20:08.869 --> 00:20:09.300
uh,
935
00:20:09.430 --> 00:20:09.869
injury,
936
00:20:09.989 --> 00:20:10.339
wasn't that?
937
00:20:10.390 --> 00:20:11.729
Didn't that cost you a championship?
938
00:20:12.109 --> 00:20:12.630
It did.
939
00:20:12.750 --> 00:20:13.430
We had to,
940
00:20:13.479 --> 00:20:13.750
uh,
941
00:20:13.829 --> 00:20:17.420
we had to go ahead and figure out what to do because that game got canceled and I,
942
00:20:17.500 --> 00:20:19.069
and we literally had one player,
943
00:20:19.189 --> 00:20:21.119
my player left in that game,
944
00:20:21.630 --> 00:20:23.810
and so we had to figure out something else to do,
945
00:20:24.270 --> 00:20:26.750
and it didn't work out for me or whatever we came up with.
946
00:20:26.910 --> 00:20:27.069
No,
947
00:20:27.369 --> 00:20:27.380
I,
948
00:20:27.390 --> 00:20:27.709
and I think,
949
00:20:28.189 --> 00:20:28.469
well,
950
00:20:28.579 --> 00:20:28.859
uh,
951
00:20:29.030 --> 00:20:30.030
it's been a tough road there,
952
00:20:30.109 --> 00:20:30.390
but uh,
953
00:20:30.680 --> 00:20:32.829
we do know that you're going to do much,
954
00:20:32.910 --> 00:20:33.349
much better,
955
00:20:33.420 --> 00:20:33.540
uh,
956
00:20:33.630 --> 00:20:35.410
here in the Senate Fantasy League,
957
00:20:35.689 --> 00:20:36.030
um.
958
00:20:36.489 --> 00:20:36.890
That is up,
959
00:20:36.969 --> 00:20:37.209
by the way,
960
00:20:37.329 --> 00:20:38.569
Senate Fantasy.com.
961
00:20:38.689 --> 00:20:38.969
Go there,
962
00:20:39.050 --> 00:20:40.130
get your team registered.
963
00:20:40.239 --> 00:20:40.410
Uh,
964
00:20:40.489 --> 00:20:41.609
I did confirm,
965
00:20:41.650 --> 00:20:42.000
Dan,
966
00:20:42.010 --> 00:20:42.790
last night
967
00:20:43.160 --> 00:20:45.829
that there was a team named ZB Cards in the,
968
00:20:45.869 --> 00:20:46.280
uh,
969
00:20:47.410 --> 00:20:48.189
you saw that
970
00:20:48.449 --> 00:20:49.170
in the lineup,
971
00:20:49.250 --> 00:20:49.650
and I,
972
00:20:49.810 --> 00:20:49.930
I,
973
00:20:50.010 --> 00:20:53.650
that suspiciously sounded like the name my son uses when he does his,
974
00:20:53.689 --> 00:20:54.040
uh,
975
00:20:54.170 --> 00:20:55.630
sports card trading.
976
00:20:56.040 --> 00:20:56.589
Online
977
00:20:57.010 --> 00:20:58.569
and I did realize that yes,
978
00:20:58.729 --> 00:20:59.640
I have confirmed that.
979
00:20:59.660 --> 00:21:01.770
My son is in the fantasy league now.
980
00:21:02.089 --> 00:21:03.410
You're supposed to be 18 and older.
981
00:21:03.489 --> 00:21:04.089
He is not,
982
00:21:04.329 --> 00:21:06.170
but he's also not eligible for any prizes.
983
00:21:06.239 --> 00:21:07.089
So I think it's OK.
984
00:21:07.530 --> 00:21:07.630
Yeah,
985
00:21:07.689 --> 00:21:07.890
I think,
986
00:21:08.010 --> 00:21:08.989
I think we can let it slide.
987
00:21:09.130 --> 00:21:09.469
Yeah.
988
00:21:09.890 --> 00:21:11.290
Although he was saying that if,
989
00:21:11.300 --> 00:21:11.510
uh,
990
00:21:11.689 --> 00:21:13.400
he knows he can't get the prizes through the game,
991
00:21:13.650 --> 00:21:14.930
but he was saying if he does win,
992
00:21:15.010 --> 00:21:16.160
I should buy him something.
993
00:21:16.449 --> 00:21:17.000
So I don't know how,
994
00:21:17.250 --> 00:21:17.410
I mean,
995
00:21:17.489 --> 00:21:18.930
it kind of does seem fair in a way,
996
00:21:19.030 --> 00:21:21.329
but also I have not fully agreed to it yet.
997
00:21:21.780 --> 00:21:22.020
Uh,
998
00:21:22.180 --> 00:21:24.280
because if he can smoke me and everybody in this audience,
999
00:21:24.599 --> 00:21:27.099
I kind of feel like he does deserve something cause that's not gonna be easy.
1000
00:21:27.180 --> 00:21:28.400
There's a lot of smart people out there.
1001
00:21:29.099 --> 00:21:30.339
He deserves a pat on the back.
1002
00:21:30.430 --> 00:21:32.089
You say you have a bright future in,
1003
00:21:32.099 --> 00:21:32.180
uh,
1004
00:21:32.260 --> 00:21:33.260
Senate fantasy leagues there,
1005
00:21:33.449 --> 00:21:33.640
Zach.
1006
00:21:33.859 --> 00:21:36.119
As soon as you're of age to participate,
1007
00:21:36.420 --> 00:21:37.060
good luck with that.
1008
00:21:37.189 --> 00:21:37.420
OK,
1009
00:21:37.500 --> 00:21:37.739
um,
1010
00:21:37.900 --> 00:21:38.109
so,
1011
00:21:38.199 --> 00:21:38.680
uh,
1012
00:21:39.020 --> 00:21:39.859
before we get into your team,
1013
00:21:39.979 --> 00:21:40.140
Dan,
1014
00:21:40.250 --> 00:21:40.699
because I'm not,
1015
00:21:40.760 --> 00:21:41.329
not seeing your team,
1016
00:21:41.380 --> 00:21:43.959
we're gonna go through and kind of like go through your thought process on it.
1017
00:21:44.219 --> 00:21:44.550
But,
1018
00:21:44.859 --> 00:21:45.290
uh,
1019
00:21:45.380 --> 00:21:46.160
I,
1020
00:21:46.729 --> 00:21:48.119
game theory-wise,
1021
00:21:48.619 --> 00:21:48.770
you know,
1022
00:21:48.819 --> 00:21:51.719
it's one thing to try to pick all these races correctly.
1023
00:21:51.780 --> 00:21:53.060
And the reason why we didn't just say,
1024
00:21:53.140 --> 00:21:53.420
hey,
1025
00:21:53.699 --> 00:21:53.859
let's,
1026
00:21:53.869 --> 00:21:55.699
you get 8 picks and try to go 8 for 8.
1027
00:21:56.170 --> 00:21:59.579
is because we wanted to bring in the aspects of prediction markets.
1028
00:21:59.619 --> 00:22:01.650
You have to use these prediction market prices.
1029
00:22:01.939 --> 00:22:03.300
So it's up to you to decide,
1030
00:22:03.420 --> 00:22:05.930
do I take a bunch of favorites and just try to get above,
1031
00:22:05.939 --> 00:22:06.410
uh,
1032
00:22:06.420 --> 00:22:07.250
everybody else that way?
1033
00:22:07.489 --> 00:22:09.859
Do I take a bunch of long shots and try to hit a couple of them?
1034
00:22:09.969 --> 00:22:11.089
Will that be beneficial?
1035
00:22:11.339 --> 00:22:15.300
What was your way uh about thinking about this as you went in,
1036
00:22:15.510 --> 00:22:15.770
uh,
1037
00:22:15.780 --> 00:22:16.619
to your picking your team?
1038
00:22:17.319 --> 00:22:17.560
Well,
1039
00:22:17.640 --> 00:22:22.040
I think you're looking for value and so you're looking at someone that,
1040
00:22:22.119 --> 00:22:22.359
you know,
1041
00:22:22.479 --> 00:22:24.630
hopefully is going to just cover a lot of ground because
1042
00:22:24.630 --> 00:22:25.959
there's a lot of people you know are gonna win.
1043
00:22:26.030 --> 00:22:28.750
They're at like 95 or 97 or 90,
1044
00:22:29.160 --> 00:22:29.430
but,
1045
00:22:29.599 --> 00:22:32.359
but it is just lopping a bunch of favorites together
1046
00:22:32.359 --> 00:22:35.260
going to give you enough because you're not just,
1047
00:22:35.800 --> 00:22:37.739
you don't win this contest by,
1048
00:22:38.439 --> 00:22:38.819
uh,
1049
00:22:38.859 --> 00:22:39.219
picking,
1050
00:22:39.229 --> 00:22:39.780
like you said,
1051
00:22:39.880 --> 00:22:40.640
just winners.
1052
00:22:40.680 --> 00:22:42.199
You have to get the best margin,
1053
00:22:42.239 --> 00:22:45.099
you have to get the best increase in your portfolio.
1054
00:22:45.500 --> 00:22:47.660
And so you're looking for value here,
1055
00:22:47.949 --> 00:22:49.250
not necessarily the winner,
1056
00:22:49.339 --> 00:22:49.890
and,
1057
00:22:50.349 --> 00:22:50.569
uh,
1058
00:22:50.579 --> 00:22:50.989
and so,
1059
00:22:51.099 --> 00:22:51.390
and then,
1060
00:22:51.469 --> 00:22:52.650
and then also you've gotta
1061
00:22:52.859 --> 00:22:53.459
factor in,
1062
00:22:53.510 --> 00:22:53.829
you know,
1063
00:22:53.949 --> 00:22:54.140
a,
1064
00:22:54.219 --> 00:22:56.349
a couple of possible long shots here that
1065
00:22:56.349 --> 00:22:58.469
you think might actually have maybe a little
1066
00:22:58.469 --> 00:23:01.829
bit more chance than what the number is because if you hit one of those,
1067
00:23:02.209 --> 00:23:02.300
well,
1068
00:23:02.310 --> 00:23:04.670
that's gonna really boost your portfolio and give you
1069
00:23:04.670 --> 00:23:06.369
a huge chance and then if you lose it.
1070
00:23:06.739 --> 00:23:06.979
You know,
1071
00:23:07.060 --> 00:23:07.699
no big deal.
1072
00:23:07.900 --> 00:23:09.260
You're not losing as much,
1073
00:23:09.380 --> 00:23:09.540
uh,
1074
00:23:09.660 --> 00:23:09.790
in,
1075
00:23:09.869 --> 00:23:10.660
in the portfolio.
1076
00:23:10.819 --> 00:23:11.119
So,
1077
00:23:11.579 --> 00:23:11.939
uh,
1078
00:23:12.099 --> 00:23:12.219
you know,
1079
00:23:12.260 --> 00:23:13.099
you can balance that.
1080
00:23:13.170 --> 00:23:14.819
You can go heavy one way or the other.
1081
00:23:15.180 --> 00:23:15.449
Um,
1082
00:23:15.500 --> 00:23:17.130
I try to balance it a little bit,
1083
00:23:17.420 --> 00:23:17.489
yeah,
1084
00:23:17.619 --> 00:23:17.739
one,
1085
00:23:17.819 --> 00:23:21.520
and that's one thing to think about when you're doing this is if you have favorites,
1086
00:23:21.579 --> 00:23:21.819
you are.
1087
00:23:21.939 --> 00:23:23.000
are going to win a little,
1088
00:23:23.189 --> 00:23:23.780
potentially,
1089
00:23:24.050 --> 00:23:24.380
uh,
1090
00:23:24.540 --> 00:23:25.579
but also if you lose,
1091
00:23:25.660 --> 00:23:26.459
you'll lose a lot.
1092
00:23:26.699 --> 00:23:27.810
If you take a long shot,
1093
00:23:28.020 --> 00:23:28.979
you can win a lot,
1094
00:23:29.099 --> 00:23:29.380
but you,
1095
00:23:29.449 --> 00:23:30.020
and when you lose,
1096
00:23:30.060 --> 00:23:30.920
you only lose a little.
1097
00:23:31.020 --> 00:23:33.939
So there is a trade-off there that's an interesting thing to look at.
1098
00:23:34.050 --> 00:23:34.209
Let's,
1099
00:23:34.300 --> 00:23:35.650
let's go through the site here and,
1100
00:23:35.660 --> 00:23:35.800
uh,
1101
00:23:35.810 --> 00:23:37.130
maybe we can get your picks in,
1102
00:23:37.380 --> 00:23:38.839
and I would love to get your thinking on
1103
00:23:38.949 --> 00:23:40.910
where you went and how you decided to do it.
1104
00:23:41.180 --> 00:23:41.380
Um,
1105
00:23:41.459 --> 00:23:42.219
if we could bring the,
1106
00:23:42.260 --> 00:23:42.609
uh,
1107
00:23:42.619 --> 00:23:43.420
site up,
1108
00:23:43.550 --> 00:23:44.089
uh,
1109
00:23:44.180 --> 00:23:44.719
there we go.
1110
00:23:44.900 --> 00:23:45.160
Um,
1111
00:23:45.260 --> 00:23:45.890
so you sign in,
1112
00:23:45.939 --> 00:23:46.560
draft your teams.
1113
00:23:46.619 --> 00:23:46.739
Uh,
1114
00:23:47.420 --> 00:23:48.380
what's the name of your team?
1115
00:23:49.569 --> 00:23:49.880
Um,
1116
00:23:50.030 --> 00:23:52.410
the name of my team is Weekend at Mitch's.
1117
00:23:52.709 --> 00:23:53.569
So,
1118
00:23:54.069 --> 00:23:54.569
you know,
1119
00:23:54.670 --> 00:23:55.150
it's just,
1120
00:23:55.199 --> 00:23:55.770
uh,
1121
00:23:56.229 --> 00:23:56.510
I'll just,
1122
00:23:56.589 --> 00:23:57.689
I'll just leave that one there.
1123
00:23:57.829 --> 00:23:57.949
Yeah,
1124
00:23:58.060 --> 00:23:59.510
that would be a super,
1125
00:23:59.670 --> 00:23:59.910
uh,
1126
00:24:00.069 --> 00:24:00.890
super fun weekend,
1127
00:24:00.989 --> 00:24:01.310
I think,
1128
00:24:01.410 --> 00:24:01.630
you know,
1129
00:24:01.699 --> 00:24:02.689
a lot of people will remember it.
1130
00:24:02.949 --> 00:24:03.030
Uh,
1131
00:24:03.109 --> 00:24:03.550
so when you go through,
1132
00:24:03.630 --> 00:24:03.910
you see this,
1133
00:24:03.989 --> 00:24:05.459
you'll see that all the rules here laid out there.
1134
00:24:05.469 --> 00:24:06.550
I won't go through all of them,
1135
00:24:06.589 --> 00:24:06.780
uh,
1136
00:24:06.869 --> 00:24:07.219
now,
1137
00:24:07.459 --> 00:24:07.589
um,
1138
00:24:07.709 --> 00:24:08.270
but you'll,
1139
00:24:08.349 --> 00:24:09.949
you can read them as you go and put your team in.
1140
00:24:10.020 --> 00:24:10.229
By the way,
1141
00:24:10.310 --> 00:24:11.969
I should mention this is a free league,
1142
00:24:12.069 --> 00:24:12.390
so.
1143
00:24:12.750 --> 00:24:12.839
Uh,
1144
00:24:12.920 --> 00:24:13.939
and there are cash prizes.
1145
00:24:14.040 --> 00:24:14.459
So it's
1146
00:24:14.599 --> 00:24:15.219
basically,
1147
00:24:15.319 --> 00:24:15.439
hey,
1148
00:24:15.550 --> 00:24:15.920
why not,
1149
00:24:16.040 --> 00:24:16.349
right?
1150
00:24:16.619 --> 00:24:16.910
I mean,
1151
00:24:17.079 --> 00:24:18.479
you learn a little about the elections,
1152
00:24:18.520 --> 00:24:19.790
a little bit about the prediction markets,
1153
00:24:20.000 --> 00:24:20.099
uh,
1154
00:24:20.160 --> 00:24:21.239
and also have a chance to win,
1155
00:24:21.400 --> 00:24:21.520
you know,
1156
00:24:21.589 --> 00:24:23.050
there's thousands of dollars on the line.
1157
00:24:23.160 --> 00:24:24.119
So if you want to participate,
1158
00:24:24.199 --> 00:24:25.829
go to senatefantassy.com,
1159
00:24:26.239 --> 00:24:27.119
completely free to enter,
1160
00:24:27.219 --> 00:24:27.310
uh,
1161
00:24:27.319 --> 00:24:27.640
enter,
1162
00:24:27.680 --> 00:24:27.910
and,
1163
00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:28.109
uh,
1164
00:24:28.119 --> 00:24:28.939
thousands of dollars
1165
00:24:29.280 --> 00:24:29.859
at stake.
1166
00:24:30.079 --> 00:24:30.380
OK,
1167
00:24:30.609 --> 00:24:30.719
uh,
1168
00:24:30.839 --> 00:24:31.040
Dan,
1169
00:24:31.079 --> 00:24:32.949
the first pick you get here is your MVP,
1170
00:24:33.000 --> 00:24:34.339
and then we put it first because
1171
00:24:34.560 --> 00:24:36.719
this is like the race you're most excited about where you think there's
1172
00:24:36.719 --> 00:24:40.359
the most value and the reason why it's MVP Most Valuable politician.
1173
00:24:40.619 --> 00:24:40.640
Is
1174
00:24:41.939 --> 00:24:43.219
this counts double
1175
00:24:43.500 --> 00:24:44.060
your points.
1176
00:24:44.150 --> 00:24:45.680
So it's really a key part
1177
00:24:46.060 --> 00:24:46.420
of your,
1178
00:24:46.500 --> 00:24:46.930
uh,
1179
00:24:46.939 --> 00:24:48.239
of your Senate fantasy team.
1180
00:24:48.579 --> 00:24:49.540
What was your thinking here?
1181
00:24:50.270 --> 00:24:50.550
Well,
1182
00:24:50.829 --> 00:24:51.550
Susan Collins,
1183
00:24:51.560 --> 00:24:52.050
and I think,
1184
00:24:52.099 --> 00:24:52.390
uh,
1185
00:24:52.459 --> 00:24:52.630
you know,
1186
00:24:52.910 --> 00:24:55.949
having browsed some of the teams now because I've kind of flipped through the site,
1187
00:24:55.989 --> 00:24:57.540
I feel like a lot of people are,
1188
00:24:57.670 --> 00:24:59.689
are onto the Susan Collins situation.
1189
00:24:59.750 --> 00:25:01.160
Not everybody picked her for MVP,
1190
00:25:01.229 --> 00:25:02.369
but she's on a lot of,
1191
00:25:02.510 --> 00:25:03.770
on a lot of teams here
1192
00:25:04.150 --> 00:25:04.420
in the,
1193
00:25:04.430 --> 00:25:04.579
uh,
1194
00:25:04.589 --> 00:25:05.500
Senate Fantasy League,
1195
00:25:05.550 --> 00:25:08.020
and I think it's because of her history there in Maine.
1196
00:25:08.150 --> 00:25:10.349
She's like a unicorn there in Maine of just
1197
00:25:10.770 --> 00:25:11.930
for whatever reason,
1198
00:25:11.949 --> 00:25:12.630
she kinda.
1199
00:25:13.780 --> 00:25:17.140
It has been able to keep winning there and then also
1200
00:25:17.140 --> 00:25:19.920
the interesting part is that she's been down in the polls before
1201
00:25:20.599 --> 00:25:24.380
and and then won and like been badly down in the polls and then won.
1202
00:25:24.489 --> 00:25:25.170
So does that mean,
1203
00:25:25.219 --> 00:25:26.390
does the past predict the future?
1204
00:25:26.540 --> 00:25:26.920
No.
1205
00:25:27.099 --> 00:25:28.540
Is a different environment now?
1206
00:25:28.839 --> 00:25:29.420
Yes,
1207
00:25:29.859 --> 00:25:33.180
but I mean she did pretty well in the debate actually,
1208
00:25:33.540 --> 00:25:33.890
uh,
1209
00:25:33.900 --> 00:25:34.290
again,
1210
00:25:34.300 --> 00:25:34.810
sort of,
1211
00:25:34.819 --> 00:25:35.180
uh,
1212
00:25:35.189 --> 00:25:35.849
able to,
1213
00:25:35.900 --> 00:25:38.640
I saw a few clips of that one where she was able to sort of,
1214
00:25:39.020 --> 00:25:39.489
um,
1215
00:25:39.500 --> 00:25:42.699
surgically make some good points against her opponent.
1216
00:25:43.099 --> 00:25:43.449
So,
1217
00:25:43.530 --> 00:25:43.660
uh,
1218
00:25:43.699 --> 00:25:44.780
we'll see how that works out,
1219
00:25:44.859 --> 00:25:45.300
but her,
1220
00:25:45.339 --> 00:25:45.780
I got her,
1221
00:25:45.859 --> 00:25:46.900
I think 44 cents,
1222
00:25:46.979 --> 00:25:47.410
so,
1223
00:25:47.739 --> 00:25:47.859
you know,
1224
00:25:47.939 --> 00:25:48.819
to me doubling that,
1225
00:25:48.930 --> 00:25:49.060
you know,
1226
00:25:49.579 --> 00:25:50.719
potentially locking in.
1227
00:25:52.099 --> 00:25:52.300
You know,
1228
00:25:52.339 --> 00:25:53.439
56 cents there.
1229
00:25:53.859 --> 00:25:54.060
Yeah,
1230
00:25:54.180 --> 00:25:54.420
that's,
1231
00:25:54.579 --> 00:25:54.859
it's good.
1232
00:25:55.030 --> 00:25:55.170
I,
1233
00:25:55.260 --> 00:25:55.540
and yeah,
1234
00:25:55.660 --> 00:25:55.859
doubled,
1235
00:25:55.979 --> 00:25:56.020
yeah,
1236
00:25:56.130 --> 00:25:56.290
that's,
1237
00:25:56.380 --> 00:25:56.839
that's true.
1238
00:25:57.060 --> 00:25:57.219
Uh,
1239
00:25:57.300 --> 00:25:58.010
I will say first of all,
1240
00:25:58.020 --> 00:26:01.939
I'm annoyed because I was recommending her at 30 cents and 32 cents on this show,
1241
00:26:02.010 --> 00:26:05.339
and I don't get the benefit of that at all now that she's up to 44 cents.
1242
00:26:05.420 --> 00:26:05.699
So,
1243
00:26:05.859 --> 00:26:06.020
uh,
1244
00:26:06.089 --> 00:26:06.819
this is a travesty.
1245
00:26:06.859 --> 00:26:07.260
It's a sham.
1246
00:26:07.300 --> 00:26:07.829
It's a mockery.
1247
00:26:07.890 --> 00:26:09.079
It's a Travis sham mockery.
1248
00:26:09.300 --> 00:26:09.540
Um,
1249
00:26:09.609 --> 00:26:10.709
I want people to know that.
1250
00:26:10.900 --> 00:26:11.140
Um,
1251
00:26:11.260 --> 00:26:11.599
and then,
1252
00:26:11.650 --> 00:26:12.260
uh,
1253
00:26:12.599 --> 00:26:12.739
uh,
1254
00:26:12.900 --> 00:26:13.420
secondarily,
1255
00:26:13.500 --> 00:26:13.810
like,
1256
00:26:13.859 --> 00:26:14.079
uh,
1257
00:26:14.300 --> 00:26:15.699
there's a couple of races like this.
1258
00:26:16.380 --> 00:26:17.160
Most of the races,
1259
00:26:17.219 --> 00:26:18.640
the Democrats actually
1260
00:26:18.939 --> 00:26:21.239
did pretty well with their candidate selection.
1261
00:26:21.339 --> 00:26:21.540
Again,
1262
00:26:21.579 --> 00:26:23.130
I don't like their policies in most cases,
1263
00:26:23.180 --> 00:26:24.380
but they're relatively good candidates.
1264
00:26:24.500 --> 00:26:25.770
This is not one of those cases.
1265
00:26:25.859 --> 00:26:27.050
They first picked a rapist,
1266
00:26:27.300 --> 00:26:27.410
uh,
1267
00:26:27.540 --> 00:26:28.140
allegedly,
1268
00:26:28.339 --> 00:26:28.449
uh,
1269
00:26:28.540 --> 00:26:29.680
alleged rapist,
1270
00:26:29.859 --> 00:26:30.099
um,
1271
00:26:30.219 --> 00:26:30.859
and then,
1272
00:26:30.939 --> 00:26:31.099
uh,
1273
00:26:31.180 --> 00:26:31.619
when they're like,
1274
00:26:31.699 --> 00:26:31.859
hey,
1275
00:26:31.959 --> 00:26:33.739
he can't participate anymore,
1276
00:26:34.010 --> 00:26:34.180
uh,
1277
00:26:34.300 --> 00:26:38.140
they just went to this like also ran third-place governor candidate,
1278
00:26:38.219 --> 00:26:38.859
Troy Jackson,
1279
00:26:38.939 --> 00:26:40.459
so they're really weak there.
1280
00:26:40.650 --> 00:26:44.140
It's one of the reasons why I like Collins even in a weird year for Republicans.
1281
00:26:44.560 --> 00:26:44.810
Um,
1282
00:26:44.939 --> 00:26:45.329
next up,
1283
00:26:45.410 --> 00:26:46.489
we have this broken up this way,
1284
00:26:46.609 --> 00:26:46.770
Dan,
1285
00:26:46.930 --> 00:26:47.310
because
1286
00:26:47.609 --> 00:26:48.810
I think people would go in and they,
1287
00:26:49.010 --> 00:26:49.849
if they like Republicans,
1288
00:26:49.930 --> 00:26:50.650
pick all Republicans,
1289
00:26:50.689 --> 00:26:51.290
they like Democrats,
1290
00:26:51.329 --> 00:26:52.319
they pick all Democrats.
1291
00:26:52.890 --> 00:26:54.189
We make you pick one
1292
00:26:54.489 --> 00:26:55.800
of each category here.
1293
00:26:56.010 --> 00:26:57.969
So this next pick has to be a Republican.
1294
00:26:58.050 --> 00:26:58.609
Where did you go?
1295
00:26:59.680 --> 00:27:06.459
I went Roger Marshall in Kansas and I was in the 63 cent range
1296
00:27:07.160 --> 00:27:08.319
and uh again,
1297
00:27:08.400 --> 00:27:08.599
you know,
1298
00:27:08.640 --> 00:27:10.819
this is really primarily,
1299
00:27:10.920 --> 00:27:14.119
uh I can't say that I know a ton about Roger Marshall,
1300
00:27:14.199 --> 00:27:16.540
but what I do know is Kansas and.
1301
00:27:17.130 --> 00:27:23.650
It's a very red state and so I mean to me I just feel like maybe this is a uh
1302
00:27:23.989 --> 00:27:25.859
one of those situations of some.
1303
00:27:26.640 --> 00:27:27.319
Uh,
1304
00:27:27.579 --> 00:27:27.680
uh,
1305
00:27:27.790 --> 00:27:28.040
you know,
1306
00:27:28.119 --> 00:27:29.670
rosy polling perhaps for,
1307
00:27:30.680 --> 00:27:30.839
you know,
1308
00:27:31.199 --> 00:27:31.660
Democrats,
1309
00:27:32.119 --> 00:27:32.390
and,
1310
00:27:32.420 --> 00:27:32.640
uh,
1311
00:27:32.719 --> 00:27:35.099
you'll see sort of the Republican roots of
1312
00:27:35.880 --> 00:27:36.739
Kansas
1313
00:27:36.920 --> 00:27:37.949
sort of come home.
1314
00:27:38.199 --> 00:27:39.310
So that's sort of the thing in that one,
1315
00:27:39.319 --> 00:27:41.099
honestly not super deep on that.
1316
00:27:41.280 --> 00:27:41.319
Well,
1317
00:27:41.400 --> 00:27:41.880
I will say too,
1318
00:27:41.920 --> 00:27:43.270
his opponent is a,
1319
00:27:43.319 --> 00:27:43.520
uh,
1320
00:27:43.550 --> 00:27:44.959
is actually a pastor of like a,
1321
00:27:45.030 --> 00:27:45.680
a mega church,
1322
00:27:45.719 --> 00:27:46.040
I guess,
1323
00:27:46.160 --> 00:27:46.349
uh,
1324
00:27:46.459 --> 00:27:47.199
Adam Hamilton.
1325
00:27:47.660 --> 00:27:48.060
And,
1326
00:27:48.089 --> 00:27:48.339
uh,
1327
00:27:48.430 --> 00:27:48.550
I,
1328
00:27:48.619 --> 00:27:50.910
I don't know how much you've looked into that at all,
1329
00:27:51.030 --> 00:27:51.219
Dan,
1330
00:27:51.270 --> 00:27:51.689
but like,
1331
00:27:51.949 --> 00:27:53.310
it feels weird in Kansas,
1332
00:27:53.510 --> 00:27:53.729
but he,
1333
00:27:53.790 --> 00:27:53.880
he,
1334
00:27:53.949 --> 00:27:56.650
he seems to have kind of like one of those woke,
1335
00:27:56.790 --> 00:27:57.130
uh,
1336
00:27:57.150 --> 00:27:57.869
type churches,
1337
00:27:58.000 --> 00:27:58.160
right?
1338
00:27:58.229 --> 00:28:01.839
Like lots of like LGBTQ stuff and like climates,
1339
00:28:01.849 --> 00:28:02.689
justice,
1340
00:28:03.030 --> 00:28:03.229
you know,
1341
00:28:03.300 --> 00:28:04.229
ministry and,
1342
00:28:04.270 --> 00:28:05.449
and all this sort of thing.
1343
00:28:05.709 --> 00:28:06.270
I,
1344
00:28:06.670 --> 00:28:08.949
it seems like that wouldn't really connect with Kansas,
1345
00:28:09.030 --> 00:28:09.589
but I don't,
1346
00:28:09.989 --> 00:28:10.260
maybe,
1347
00:28:10.469 --> 00:28:11.630
maybe I'm wrong on that,
1348
00:28:11.739 --> 00:28:12.030
but it.
1349
00:28:12.609 --> 00:28:12.770
You know,
1350
00:28:12.839 --> 00:28:12.959
I,
1351
00:28:13.010 --> 00:28:14.290
I like the idea of Marshall.
1352
00:28:14.380 --> 00:28:14.689
Uh,
1353
00:28:14.819 --> 00:28:16.849
I will say the polling has been pretty rough.
1354
00:28:16.969 --> 00:28:17.089
I mean,
1355
00:28:17.150 --> 00:28:17.329
it's,
1356
00:28:17.410 --> 00:28:17.569
you know,
1357
00:28:17.729 --> 00:28:18.910
Marshall's actually been behind
1358
00:28:19.369 --> 00:28:20.089
in some of these polls.
1359
00:28:20.199 --> 00:28:21.810
Still the favorite though in the prediction markets.
1360
00:28:22.770 --> 00:28:23.219
Um,
1361
00:28:23.339 --> 00:28:23.459
all right,
1362
00:28:23.530 --> 00:28:23.900
let's move on,
1363
00:28:23.979 --> 00:28:24.170
Dan,
1364
00:28:24.180 --> 00:28:25.260
to our next pick.
1365
00:28:25.380 --> 00:28:26.900
This time you have to pick a Democrat.
1366
00:28:27.099 --> 00:28:27.560
Gotta go,
1367
00:28:27.619 --> 00:28:27.780
uh,
1368
00:28:27.939 --> 00:28:28.819
Dem on this one.
1369
00:28:28.900 --> 00:28:30.339
Whether you like their policies or not,
1370
00:28:30.459 --> 00:28:30.979
it's OK.
1371
00:28:31.050 --> 00:28:31.819
This is a prediction market.
1372
00:28:31.979 --> 00:28:33.839
Sometimes we have to go against the grain of what we believe,
1373
00:28:34.260 --> 00:28:34.420
uh,
1374
00:28:34.619 --> 00:28:35.060
politically.
1375
00:28:35.140 --> 00:28:35.920
Who did you go with,
1376
00:28:35.979 --> 00:28:37.060
with your Democratic pick?
1377
00:28:38.589 --> 00:28:41.349
I went with Mary Peltola,
1378
00:28:41.689 --> 00:28:42.270
uh,
1379
00:28:42.390 --> 00:28:43.729
75 cents,
1380
00:28:44.310 --> 00:28:46.449
and you know she's
1381
00:28:46.750 --> 00:28:48.449
already shown she can win
1382
00:28:48.869 --> 00:28:49.770
statewide.
1383
00:28:49.910 --> 00:28:50.229
She's,
1384
00:28:50.339 --> 00:28:50.430
you know,
1385
00:28:50.550 --> 00:28:54.170
you got the ranked choice system there that could potentially,
1386
00:28:54.510 --> 00:28:54.739
uh,
1387
00:28:54.750 --> 00:28:55.510
benefit her.
1388
00:28:55.670 --> 00:28:56.849
The polling has her,
1389
00:28:56.979 --> 00:28:57.150
you know,
1390
00:28:57.430 --> 00:28:59.390
kind of slightly ahead of Sullivan.
1391
00:29:00.010 --> 00:29:00.770
Um,
1392
00:29:00.969 --> 00:29:02.310
so it's.
1393
00:29:02.890 --> 00:29:05.099
It's a little unusual I think for,
1394
00:29:05.199 --> 00:29:06.089
for Alaska,
1395
00:29:06.229 --> 00:29:06.800
but
1396
00:29:07.209 --> 00:29:07.329
you know,
1397
00:29:07.410 --> 00:29:09.949
looking at the value there looked like things are kind of
1398
00:29:10.290 --> 00:29:12.650
aligning for her and you know,
1399
00:29:12.689 --> 00:29:15.689
at 75 cents I felt there was some value there
1400
00:29:16.140 --> 00:29:17.569
for her to get across the finish line.
1401
00:29:17.689 --> 00:29:17.770
Yeah,
1402
00:29:17.810 --> 00:29:18.839
this is the biggest gap,
1403
00:29:18.890 --> 00:29:19.520
by the way,
1404
00:29:19.530 --> 00:29:21.869
between what experts believe and what
1405
00:29:22.010 --> 00:29:23.479
the prediction markets believe.
1406
00:29:23.910 --> 00:29:25.689
Prediction markets are much more bullish on
1407
00:29:25.689 --> 00:29:27.880
Peltola than the quote unquote experts,
1408
00:29:27.930 --> 00:29:28.880
the election models,
1409
00:29:29.170 --> 00:29:30.390
the polling averages and such.
1410
00:29:30.829 --> 00:29:31.150
Um,
1411
00:29:31.229 --> 00:29:31.619
and,
1412
00:29:31.630 --> 00:29:31.739
uh,
1413
00:29:31.750 --> 00:29:31.989
it's,
1414
00:29:32.189 --> 00:29:32.670
it's interesting,
1415
00:29:32.739 --> 00:29:34.069
I think a big reason for that is,
1416
00:29:34.150 --> 00:29:34.270
you know,
1417
00:29:34.390 --> 00:29:35.130
she's not,
1418
00:29:35.349 --> 00:29:36.619
you mentioned several parts of it,
1419
00:29:36.670 --> 00:29:39.849
but I think also she's running a lot on like local issues
1420
00:29:40.189 --> 00:29:44.969
and not just trying to remix socialism in some new fancy way,
1421
00:29:45.300 --> 00:29:45.589
um,
1422
00:29:45.709 --> 00:29:46.020
you know,
1423
00:29:46.349 --> 00:29:47.489
she may very well vote
1424
00:29:47.739 --> 00:29:50.849
in line with every single left wing candidate that we know of,
1425
00:29:51.160 --> 00:29:51.969
but she's at least
1426
00:29:52.270 --> 00:29:54.170
presenting herself as someone who,
1427
00:29:54.300 --> 00:29:54.469
you know,
1428
00:29:54.680 --> 00:29:55.250
doesn't hate,
1429
00:29:55.400 --> 00:29:55.790
uh,
1430
00:29:55.869 --> 00:29:56.930
fossil fuels and,
1431
00:29:56.959 --> 00:29:57.150
uh,
1432
00:29:57.229 --> 00:29:57.430
you know,
1433
00:29:57.589 --> 00:29:59.510
likes fishing and hunting and all that sort of stuff,
1434
00:29:59.589 --> 00:29:59.849
so.
1435
00:30:00.310 --> 00:30:00.430
Uh,
1436
00:30:00.510 --> 00:30:00.750
so far,
1437
00:30:00.790 --> 00:30:01.390
that's worked and she,
1438
00:30:01.469 --> 00:30:03.369
it's worked well with independents in particular.
1439
00:30:03.900 --> 00:30:04.109
Um,
1440
00:30:04.229 --> 00:30:04.670
so next,
1441
00:30:04.709 --> 00:30:06.390
we go into our regional groups here,
1442
00:30:06.510 --> 00:30:06.849
Dan.
1443
00:30:06.930 --> 00:30:07.180
Um,
1444
00:30:07.329 --> 00:30:08.890
the regional groups are interesting because
1445
00:30:09.430 --> 00:30:09.819
you,
1446
00:30:09.949 --> 00:30:13.969
there's really only one super close state in the eastern region,
1447
00:30:14.430 --> 00:30:15.150
that's Maine.
1448
00:30:15.270 --> 00:30:16.709
You've already taken Susan Collins,
1449
00:30:16.790 --> 00:30:17.969
so that one's off the board.
1450
00:30:18.310 --> 00:30:19.670
You gotta look for value somewhere else.
1451
00:30:19.750 --> 00:30:20.250
Where did you look?
1452
00:30:21.449 --> 00:30:24.349
Well this is where I went long shot hunting
1453
00:30:24.689 --> 00:30:25.810
and uh
1454
00:30:26.130 --> 00:30:31.250
this is a funny one because I went to New Hampshire and John Sununu
1455
00:30:31.969 --> 00:30:32.939
and uh
1456
00:30:33.069 --> 00:30:35.069
the sole reason I went there
1457
00:30:35.280 --> 00:30:40.310
um is because of the Sununu name in the area and so I'm this is
1458
00:30:40.609 --> 00:30:42.890
as far as long shots go when you have someone.
1459
00:30:42.989 --> 00:30:45.270
With the name recognition of a Sununu in,
1460
00:30:45.310 --> 00:30:45.839
I mean,
1461
00:30:46.140 --> 00:30:46.530
uh,
1462
00:30:46.869 --> 00:30:48.270
deep roots there in New Hampshire,
1463
00:30:48.339 --> 00:30:48.469
you know,
1464
00:30:48.550 --> 00:30:49.750
the father was a governor,
1465
00:30:50.069 --> 00:30:51.290
his brother Chris
1466
00:30:51.430 --> 00:30:53.650
won the governorship 4 times,
1467
00:30:54.150 --> 00:30:54.469
uh,
1468
00:30:54.589 --> 00:30:55.089
so
1469
00:30:55.469 --> 00:30:55.589
the,
1470
00:30:55.630 --> 00:30:56.949
the Sununu name is very,
1471
00:30:57.069 --> 00:30:59.010
very recognizable in
1472
00:30:59.270 --> 00:31:00.699
New Hampshire and so I,
1473
00:31:00.859 --> 00:31:01.369
you know,
1474
00:31:02.270 --> 00:31:02.489
again,
1475
00:31:02.550 --> 00:31:03.920
he's only at 11%,
1476
00:31:04.030 --> 00:31:04.729
so I'm not.
1477
00:31:05.390 --> 00:31:06.660
Entirely thinking it's gonna happen.
1478
00:31:06.709 --> 00:31:08.189
I just think that given the name,
1479
00:31:08.270 --> 00:31:11.839
he's at a much higher value than probably actually 11%.
1480
00:31:11.949 --> 00:31:15.109
I'd put him maybe more in the 25% range or something like that.
1481
00:31:15.239 --> 00:31:15.959
So it felt,
1482
00:31:16.469 --> 00:31:17.319
it felt like a,
1483
00:31:17.329 --> 00:31:17.540
uh,
1484
00:31:17.550 --> 00:31:18.380
good time to,
1485
00:31:18.589 --> 00:31:20.150
I didn't really love any of the other
1486
00:31:20.150 --> 00:31:22.050
options there since I've already taken Collins,
1487
00:31:22.430 --> 00:31:23.189
and so.
1488
00:31:24.099 --> 00:31:25.140
Go for the long shot there.
1489
00:31:25.300 --> 00:31:25.459
All right,
1490
00:31:25.540 --> 00:31:25.719
I like it.
1491
00:31:25.780 --> 00:31:25.939
I mean,
1492
00:31:26.160 --> 00:31:27.780
big time upside with that one,
1493
00:31:27.819 --> 00:31:29.660
and there have been polls showing that race very close.
1494
00:31:29.810 --> 00:31:29.859
Uh,
1495
00:31:29.910 --> 00:31:30.739
let's move over to the south.
1496
00:31:30.900 --> 00:31:33.939
This is a tough one for everybody because there's basically no close races.
1497
00:31:34.060 --> 00:31:34.979
Show that map up there for a second,
1498
00:31:35.089 --> 00:31:35.369
Adam,
1499
00:31:35.699 --> 00:31:35.810
um,
1500
00:31:35.939 --> 00:31:36.540
because you see the map,
1501
00:31:36.609 --> 00:31:37.180
it's all green.
1502
00:31:37.260 --> 00:31:39.239
That means there's no like tight races.
1503
00:31:39.459 --> 00:31:41.640
You gotta really search for value here.
1504
00:31:42.339 --> 00:31:42.729
again,
1505
00:31:42.819 --> 00:31:43.459
where did you go?
1506
00:31:45.170 --> 00:31:45.449
Well,
1507
00:31:45.530 --> 00:31:46.400
I went with,
1508
00:31:46.410 --> 00:31:46.760
uh,
1509
00:31:46.770 --> 00:31:49.209
Darlene Graham Nordone,
1510
00:31:49.469 --> 00:31:49.599
uh,
1511
00:31:49.689 --> 00:31:51.550
obviously Lindsey Graham's sister there
1512
00:31:52.150 --> 00:31:53.219
at 86,
1513
00:31:53.329 --> 00:31:53.849
like you said,
1514
00:31:53.890 --> 00:31:54.410
I didn't love it.
1515
00:31:54.489 --> 00:31:57.369
I didn't love a lot of the picks that were out that were available in,
1516
00:31:57.449 --> 00:31:58.099
in that area.
1517
00:31:58.219 --> 00:31:58.670
So,
1518
00:31:58.989 --> 00:31:59.369
um,
1519
00:31:59.489 --> 00:32:00.829
and also I didn't love her,
1520
00:32:00.969 --> 00:32:01.459
um,
1521
00:32:01.650 --> 00:32:03.800
answer if you remember back early on in that,
1522
00:32:03.810 --> 00:32:04.829
I think it was in a debate.
1523
00:32:05.719 --> 00:32:06.260
And she's like,
1524
00:32:06.329 --> 00:32:06.369
well,
1525
00:32:06.449 --> 00:32:08.250
I don't really know anything about foreign policy,
1526
00:32:08.260 --> 00:32:08.790
and you're like,
1527
00:32:08.800 --> 00:32:09.469
wait a minute.
1528
00:32:10.530 --> 00:32:10.949
That was,
1529
00:32:10.959 --> 00:32:11.319
uh,
1530
00:32:11.329 --> 00:32:12.569
not the answer you want,
1531
00:32:12.650 --> 00:32:12.890
Tom,
1532
00:32:12.969 --> 00:32:13.119
but,
1533
00:32:13.130 --> 00:32:13.550
uh,
1534
00:32:13.810 --> 00:32:14.010
anyway,
1535
00:32:14.130 --> 00:32:14.680
so I,
1536
00:32:14.689 --> 00:32:15.150
uh.
1537
00:32:16.050 --> 00:32:17.410
I thought that all right,
1538
00:32:17.489 --> 00:32:21.109
the name recognition should get her across the finish line and
1539
00:32:21.650 --> 00:32:22.449
it's at 86,
1540
00:32:22.530 --> 00:32:23.969
so there's at least some value there.
1541
00:32:24.239 --> 00:32:24.560
After all,
1542
00:32:24.609 --> 00:32:25.890
it is South Carolina.
1543
00:32:25.930 --> 00:32:27.040
This shouldn't be that difficult.
1544
00:32:27.329 --> 00:32:27.969
Let's go to,
1545
00:32:28.010 --> 00:32:28.319
uh,
1546
00:32:28.369 --> 00:32:29.729
the Midwest region.
1547
00:32:29.810 --> 00:32:32.250
This is the most competitive region of them all five states that are close.
1548
00:32:32.329 --> 00:32:35.170
You took one of them off the board earlier with Roger Marshall.
1549
00:32:35.530 --> 00:32:35.609
Uh,
1550
00:32:35.689 --> 00:32:36.969
you got 4 other choices there,
1551
00:32:36.979 --> 00:32:38.800
or you could go to a different state.
1552
00:32:39.050 --> 00:32:39.689
What did you choose?
1553
00:32:40.790 --> 00:32:43.550
I went Iowa Ashley Hinson here again going,
1554
00:32:43.589 --> 00:32:43.819
uh,
1555
00:32:43.829 --> 00:32:46.479
this is kind of a running theme for me like
1556
00:32:46.989 --> 00:32:48.579
thinking that some of these states,
1557
00:32:48.630 --> 00:32:49.449
the red
1558
00:32:49.890 --> 00:32:52.930
roots of them are gonna kind of come back around
1559
00:32:53.430 --> 00:32:54.280
and
1560
00:32:54.469 --> 00:32:55.969
Iowa was one of those,
1561
00:32:55.989 --> 00:32:56.709
um,
1562
00:32:57.109 --> 00:32:58.030
and so in,
1563
00:32:58.069 --> 00:32:58.869
in my mind.
1564
00:32:59.369 --> 00:33:00.469
And so I'm kind of,
1565
00:33:00.489 --> 00:33:01.040
uh,
1566
00:33:01.050 --> 00:33:03.829
taking an optimistic look at that 59 and thinking,
1567
00:33:03.890 --> 00:33:04.199
all right,
1568
00:33:04.290 --> 00:33:04.489
that,
1569
00:33:04.609 --> 00:33:05.910
that seems to make sense.
1570
00:33:05.969 --> 00:33:06.750
And so,
1571
00:33:07.140 --> 00:33:07.329
again,
1572
00:33:07.449 --> 00:33:10.410
good value if it pulls through and a lot of people had Hinson too.
1573
00:33:10.489 --> 00:33:10.650
I,
1574
00:33:10.729 --> 00:33:13.130
I definitely wasn't the only one in there just sampling around.
1575
00:33:13.410 --> 00:33:13.530
Yeah,
1576
00:33:13.640 --> 00:33:13.680
it's,
1577
00:33:13.770 --> 00:33:13.890
I,
1578
00:33:14.010 --> 00:33:15.979
that's one of been one of my favorite picks since the beginning,
1579
00:33:16.010 --> 00:33:16.329
and I,
1580
00:33:16.410 --> 00:33:16.609
you know,
1581
00:33:16.689 --> 00:33:16.800
I,
1582
00:33:16.890 --> 00:33:17.050
I,
1583
00:33:17.130 --> 00:33:18.459
I went through a little bit of this in the last.
1584
00:33:18.630 --> 00:33:20.510
Segment as to how annoyed I am
1585
00:33:20.910 --> 00:33:24.150
about a couple of developments that have made this more difficult than it should be,
1586
00:33:24.390 --> 00:33:25.380
but we'll go into that again,
1587
00:33:25.390 --> 00:33:25.969
maybe later.
1588
00:33:26.099 --> 00:33:26.270
Uh,
1589
00:33:26.390 --> 00:33:27.550
next region is the West.
1590
00:33:27.630 --> 00:33:27.819
Uh,
1591
00:33:28.030 --> 00:33:29.670
you already took Alaska off the map.
1592
00:33:29.750 --> 00:33:31.510
So you've got a bunch of states that are,
1593
00:33:31.589 --> 00:33:31.750
you know,
1594
00:33:31.869 --> 00:33:33.829
have either go with a long shot or a heavy favorite,
1595
00:33:33.900 --> 00:33:34.989
and then you got one big,
1596
00:33:35.099 --> 00:33:35.420
you know,
1597
00:33:35.780 --> 00:33:37.689
state out there in the state of Texas where I am,
1598
00:33:38.150 --> 00:33:38.390
uh,
1599
00:33:38.510 --> 00:33:39.150
very close race,
1600
00:33:39.229 --> 00:33:41.150
maybe the highest profile race of this entire country.
1601
00:33:41.260 --> 00:33:41.589
Did you get,
1602
00:33:41.709 --> 00:33:43.250
did you get gutsy and go with that one,
1603
00:33:43.270 --> 00:33:44.209
or did you go somewhere else?
1604
00:33:44.939 --> 00:33:46.849
I went to Texas,
1605
00:33:46.869 --> 00:33:49.719
and this is probably the pick that I'm uh.
1606
00:33:50.469 --> 00:33:50.949
Uh,
1607
00:33:51.150 --> 00:33:54.109
probably makes me is gonna make or break my card here,
1608
00:33:54.189 --> 00:33:54.689
my team,
1609
00:33:54.829 --> 00:33:56.530
and then I went with Ken Paxton
1610
00:33:56.969 --> 00:33:58.290
at 36,
1611
00:33:58.910 --> 00:33:59.270
and,
1612
00:33:59.280 --> 00:33:59.709
uh,
1613
00:33:59.790 --> 00:34:00.030
yeah,
1614
00:34:00.150 --> 00:34:00.420
I mean,
1615
00:34:00.520 --> 00:34:00.670
uh,
1616
00:34:00.780 --> 00:34:00.949
you know,
1617
00:34:01.020 --> 00:34:01.890
it's Texas
1618
00:34:02.150 --> 00:34:02.439
again.
1619
00:34:02.510 --> 00:34:05.530
I mean it's sort of the theme on my card it's Texas and I just,
1620
00:34:05.630 --> 00:34:05.709
I,
1621
00:34:05.790 --> 00:34:09.290
I mean I know Tallarico's been campaigning generally well
1622
00:34:09.510 --> 00:34:10.590
even though he went
1623
00:34:10.790 --> 00:34:12.850
MIA for a couple weeks there with a.
1624
00:34:13.379 --> 00:34:15.239
With a sniffle or whatever he had
1625
00:34:15.458 --> 00:34:17.590
that made him disappear for two weeks,
1626
00:34:17.620 --> 00:34:18.060
um,
1627
00:34:18.458 --> 00:34:20.600
happens all the time right before an election.
1628
00:34:21.139 --> 00:34:21.520
So,
1629
00:34:21.659 --> 00:34:22.040
but,
1630
00:34:22.120 --> 00:34:22.500
uh,
1631
00:34:22.659 --> 00:34:22.978
so yeah,
1632
00:34:23.060 --> 00:34:23.260
I mean,
1633
00:34:23.300 --> 00:34:26.699
I'm kind of thinking Texas is gonna come back around to what they usually do,
1634
00:34:26.820 --> 00:34:26.978
uh,
1635
00:34:27.060 --> 00:34:29.770
even though Ken Paxson's a flawed candidate,
1636
00:34:29.820 --> 00:34:31.520
as I know you've talked about,
1637
00:34:32.020 --> 00:34:33.340
and a lot of people are talking about,
1638
00:34:33.458 --> 00:34:33.659
but,
1639
00:34:33.699 --> 00:34:33.889
uh,
1640
00:34:33.978 --> 00:34:34.449
so I,
1641
00:34:34.699 --> 00:34:35.139
you know,
1642
00:34:36.139 --> 00:34:37.500
everyone's big on Tallarico now.
1643
00:34:37.580 --> 00:34:39.010
I saw a lot of people had Tallarico,
1644
00:34:39.060 --> 00:34:40.760
so this is one that's either gonna.
1645
00:34:41.668 --> 00:34:42.500
Make or break my,
1646
00:34:42.530 --> 00:34:42.810
uh,
1647
00:34:42.870 --> 00:34:43.520
my team here.
1648
00:34:43.708 --> 00:34:44.030
All right.
1649
00:34:44.149 --> 00:34:44.870
And then final,
1650
00:34:44.949 --> 00:34:45.300
uh,
1651
00:34:45.409 --> 00:34:45.708
uh,
1652
00:34:45.719 --> 00:34:46.429
pick is flex.
1653
00:34:46.469 --> 00:34:47.659
If you've ever been in a fantasy league,
1654
00:34:47.708 --> 00:34:48.750
you usually have a flex slot,
1655
00:34:48.790 --> 00:34:49.010
which
1656
00:34:49.270 --> 00:34:51.489
kind of means you can pick from any different category.
1657
00:34:51.708 --> 00:34:53.389
So you can go anywhere in the country with this one,
1658
00:34:53.510 --> 00:34:53.750
Dan.
1659
00:34:53.830 --> 00:34:55.168
The world is your oyster,
1660
00:34:55.228 --> 00:34:56.219
or at least the country is.
1661
00:34:56.620 --> 00:34:57.790
Where would you go with your last pick?
1662
00:34:58.949 --> 00:34:59.679
Again,
1663
00:34:59.989 --> 00:35:00.399
you know,
1664
00:35:00.479 --> 00:35:01.120
uh,
1665
00:35:01.679 --> 00:35:02.510
this one,
1666
00:35:02.979 --> 00:35:02.989
I,
1667
00:35:03.040 --> 00:35:03.290
I don't,
1668
00:35:03.360 --> 00:35:03.870
I don't know.
1669
00:35:03.959 --> 00:35:04.399
I don't know.
1670
00:35:04.520 --> 00:35:04.679
I'm not,
1671
00:35:04.790 --> 00:35:05.620
I'm not gonna say I,
1672
00:35:05.800 --> 00:35:07.719
I don't know which one I like least out of my picks,
1673
00:35:07.760 --> 00:35:09.080
whether it was Paxton or this one,
1674
00:35:09.159 --> 00:35:11.620
but I went to Michigan and I went Mike Rogers.
1675
00:35:12.280 --> 00:35:12.520
I mean,
1676
00:35:12.639 --> 00:35:16.300
El Syed was just grilled in the last debate,
1677
00:35:16.679 --> 00:35:16.989
uh,
1678
00:35:17.070 --> 00:35:19.909
on his houses and how he's got,
1679
00:35:20.040 --> 00:35:20.520
you know.
1680
00:35:21.219 --> 00:35:22.139
Houses in,
1681
00:35:22.310 --> 00:35:22.429
you know,
1682
00:35:22.510 --> 00:35:24.340
the Middle East or whatever and,
1683
00:35:24.350 --> 00:35:24.679
uh,
1684
00:35:25.310 --> 00:35:25.429
you know,
1685
00:35:25.510 --> 00:35:25.709
he,
1686
00:35:25.830 --> 00:35:25.989
he,
1687
00:35:26.060 --> 00:35:28.310
Rogers was getting grilled on his house in Florida and
1688
00:35:28.310 --> 00:35:30.280
he said it's leased it's in the United States,
1689
00:35:30.830 --> 00:35:31.370
um,
1690
00:35:32.050 --> 00:35:32.060
and,
1691
00:35:32.100 --> 00:35:33.110
and so I don't know.
1692
00:35:33.149 --> 00:35:33.870
I mean we'll see.
1693
00:35:33.909 --> 00:35:37.459
I mean I know El Sayed's been polling well and you know,
1694
00:35:37.550 --> 00:35:39.469
but again these are ones that
1695
00:35:39.659 --> 00:35:43.419
could conceivably on election day come around and you get a lot of
1696
00:35:43.419 --> 00:35:47.050
value there and that's kind of what was my driving factor was looking at
1697
00:35:47.310 --> 00:35:47.469
all right,
1698
00:35:47.550 --> 00:35:50.070
do I think this is a higher than 33% chance?
1699
00:35:50.149 --> 00:35:50.750
Yes.
1700
00:35:51.449 --> 00:35:53.659
And so that that doesn't still mean it's a good chance,
1701
00:35:53.739 --> 00:35:55.020
but it's better than 33,
1702
00:35:55.100 --> 00:35:56.489
so I felt like I was getting value.
1703
00:35:56.699 --> 00:35:56.969
All right.
1704
00:35:57.100 --> 00:35:57.310
Weekend,
1705
00:35:57.500 --> 00:36:00.000
not weekend at Bernie's weekend at Mitch's,
1706
00:36:00.020 --> 00:36:00.100
uh,
1707
00:36:00.939 --> 00:36:01.060
yeah,
1708
00:36:01.260 --> 00:36:01.459
quickly,
1709
00:36:01.540 --> 00:36:03.100
can we see the team one more time before we,
1710
00:36:03.139 --> 00:36:03.250
uh,
1711
00:36:03.300 --> 00:36:03.419
go?
1712
00:36:03.459 --> 00:36:04.479
We'll run through it for
1713
00:36:04.899 --> 00:36:06.129
everyone who happens to be,
1714
00:36:06.179 --> 00:36:06.379
uh,
1715
00:36:06.500 --> 00:36:06.820
listening.
1716
00:36:06.889 --> 00:36:09.000
We got the MVP Susan Collins,
1717
00:36:09.290 --> 00:36:09.570
uh,
1718
00:36:09.699 --> 00:36:10.659
then rep uh,
1719
00:36:10.699 --> 00:36:11.760
Republican Roger Marshall,
1720
00:36:12.179 --> 00:36:14.620
Mary Peltola for the one Democrat on the board,
1721
00:36:14.929 --> 00:36:16.080
John Sununu in the east,
1722
00:36:16.489 --> 00:36:17.879
Darlene Graham Nordone in the south,
1723
00:36:18.100 --> 00:36:18.330
in the,
1724
00:36:18.409 --> 00:36:19.100
in the Midwest,
1725
00:36:19.179 --> 00:36:20.139
it's Ashley Hinson.
1726
00:36:20.419 --> 00:36:20.939
In the West,
1727
00:36:21.060 --> 00:36:22.489
Ken Paxton and then Flex,
1728
00:36:22.580 --> 00:36:23.689
Mike Rogers from Michigan.
1729
00:36:23.739 --> 00:36:24.020
I will say,
1730
00:36:24.100 --> 00:36:24.260
Dan,
1731
00:36:24.379 --> 00:36:28.280
very Republican heavy here in what is rumored to be a very Democratic year.
1732
00:36:28.939 --> 00:36:30.419
Does this make you nervous?
1733
00:36:32.030 --> 00:36:32.409
Yeah,
1734
00:36:32.750 --> 00:36:33.030
OK.
1735
00:36:33.949 --> 00:36:35.189
Just like everybody else in the country,
1736
00:36:35.250 --> 00:36:36.030
you fit in perfectly.
1737
00:36:36.189 --> 00:36:36.310
OK,
1738
00:36:36.429 --> 00:36:36.899
Dan Andros,
1739
00:36:36.949 --> 00:36:37.070
uh,
1740
00:36:37.139 --> 00:36:37.810
good luck with your team.
1741
00:36:37.870 --> 00:36:38.750
Thanks for coming on the program.
1742
00:36:38.860 --> 00:36:40.500
Follow him at Dan at Dan Andros on,
1743
00:36:40.540 --> 00:36:40.739
uh,
1744
00:36:41.070 --> 00:36:42.379
on the Twitter and the X and the,
1745
00:36:42.429 --> 00:36:43.110
and all those things.
1746
00:36:43.229 --> 00:36:43.350
All right,
1747
00:36:43.429 --> 00:36:44.030
back in a second.
1748
00:36:59.760 --> 00:37:00.909
It's time for candidate countdown.
1749
00:37:00.919 --> 00:37:03.580
We pick a candidate each day that I might be able to find some value,
1750
00:37:03.639 --> 00:37:03.840
uh,
1751
00:37:03.919 --> 00:37:06.360
in when it comes to prediction markets.
1752
00:37:06.429 --> 00:37:10.659
And today's candidate of the day with only 20 days until the midterm elections
1753
00:37:10.889 --> 00:37:11.580
is
1754
00:37:12.120 --> 00:37:13.500
Ilhan Omar.
1755
00:37:13.639 --> 00:37:13.959
Yes,
1756
00:37:14.080 --> 00:37:14.750
Elon Omar,
1757
00:37:15.199 --> 00:37:16.239
Democrat from Minnesota.
1758
00:37:16.310 --> 00:37:16.530
Now,
1759
00:37:16.800 --> 00:37:17.760
someone said this,
1760
00:37:17.840 --> 00:37:18.219
this
1761
00:37:18.320 --> 00:37:19.159
segment is cursed.
1762
00:37:19.270 --> 00:37:20.260
Anyone I talk about
1763
00:37:20.439 --> 00:37:22.179
winds up having terrible election outcomes.
1764
00:37:23.750 --> 00:37:24.260
I don't know.
1765
00:37:24.510 --> 00:37:24.629
Uh,
1766
00:37:24.709 --> 00:37:25.110
but anyway,
1767
00:37:25.169 --> 00:37:25.500
um,
1768
00:37:25.850 --> 00:37:26.110
by the way,
1769
00:37:26.189 --> 00:37:26.750
why are we using,
1770
00:37:26.830 --> 00:37:27.469
I like that picture.
1771
00:37:27.590 --> 00:37:28.020
Look at her.
1772
00:37:28.310 --> 00:37:29.199
She's like a mid,
1773
00:37:29.570 --> 00:37:30.129
uh,
1774
00:37:30.310 --> 00:37:30.590
I don't know,
1775
00:37:30.669 --> 00:37:31.469
we could have used that picture.
1776
00:37:31.550 --> 00:37:34.310
We also could have used the picture of her from the Maroon 5 video.
1777
00:37:34.350 --> 00:37:35.070
I don't know if you know this.
1778
00:37:35.149 --> 00:37:35.699
Every time I say this,
1779
00:37:35.780 --> 00:37:36.080
someone says,
1780
00:37:36.120 --> 00:37:36.510
oh gosh,
1781
00:37:36.570 --> 00:37:37.870
that's that can't possibly be real.
1782
00:37:37.979 --> 00:37:39.510
She's not really in a Maroon 5 video.
1783
00:37:39.750 --> 00:37:39.909
Yes,
1784
00:37:40.030 --> 00:37:40.330
she is.
1785
00:37:40.429 --> 00:37:41.580
This is where she came from.
1786
00:37:41.909 --> 00:37:43.810
She went from Maroon 5 to Congress.
1787
00:37:44.030 --> 00:37:45.965
Now she's not in the The band Maroon 5,
1788
00:37:46.135 --> 00:37:46.834
she doesn't have any
1789
00:37:47.135 --> 00:37:48.334
musical talent that I know of.
1790
00:37:48.574 --> 00:37:50.925
She's just standing there next to Adam Levine and,
1791
00:37:50.935 --> 00:37:51.135
uh,
1792
00:37:51.294 --> 00:37:51.574
pointing,
1793
00:37:51.655 --> 00:37:52.284
hey,
1794
00:37:52.375 --> 00:37:52.774
it's me,
1795
00:37:52.895 --> 00:37:53.695
Ihan Omar.
1796
00:37:53.814 --> 00:37:54.205
That's,
1797
00:37:54.544 --> 00:37:55.215
that's legitimate.
1798
00:37:55.294 --> 00:37:56.274
That's not AI by the way.
1799
00:37:56.334 --> 00:37:59.064
That is a legitimate screenshot from the video of,
1800
00:37:59.175 --> 00:37:59.405
what is it,
1801
00:37:59.455 --> 00:38:00.044
Girls Like You?
1802
00:38:00.659 --> 00:38:01.020
Uh,
1803
00:38:01.139 --> 00:38:01.879
so there she is,
1804
00:38:02.100 --> 00:38:02.219
uh,
1805
00:38:02.290 --> 00:38:03.300
in case you were wondering about that.
1806
00:38:03.379 --> 00:38:03.540
Now,
1807
00:38:03.739 --> 00:38:05.020
the reason we bring up Ihan Omar,
1808
00:38:05.219 --> 00:38:08.300
normally we wouldn't because there's just not a lot of value,
1809
00:38:08.459 --> 00:38:08.850
frankly,
1810
00:38:08.899 --> 00:38:09.100
in,
1811
00:38:09.199 --> 00:38:09.379
uh,
1812
00:38:09.500 --> 00:38:10.219
in Ihan Omar
1813
00:38:10.860 --> 00:38:11.840
in multiple ways.
1814
00:38:12.060 --> 00:38:12.310
Um,
1815
00:38:12.379 --> 00:38:12.760
however,
1816
00:38:13.260 --> 00:38:13.429
uh,
1817
00:38:13.540 --> 00:38:15.020
in prediction market land,
1818
00:38:15.090 --> 00:38:15.489
uh,
1819
00:38:15.699 --> 00:38:18.179
you have a candidate like this in a district like this,
1820
00:38:18.209 --> 00:38:19.260
to give you a sense of this,
1821
00:38:19.340 --> 00:38:19.459
uh,
1822
00:38:19.620 --> 00:38:20.399
Kamala Harris
1823
00:38:20.659 --> 00:38:22.620
won 79 to 17.
1824
00:38:23.060 --> 00:38:23.770
In this district.
1825
00:38:23.899 --> 00:38:24.449
This is not,
1826
00:38:24.739 --> 00:38:26.060
not a borderline district,
1827
00:38:26.300 --> 00:38:26.459
very,
1828
00:38:26.570 --> 00:38:27.560
very blue district.
1829
00:38:27.899 --> 00:38:28.260
Um,
1830
00:38:29.409 --> 00:38:30.219
Ilanamar usually underperforms,
1831
00:38:30.260 --> 00:38:31.600
like she underperformed Harris by,
1832
00:38:31.820 --> 00:38:31.979
you know,
1833
00:38:32.060 --> 00:38:33.399
a relatively decent amount,
1834
00:38:33.820 --> 00:38:34.100
um,
1835
00:38:34.219 --> 00:38:34.370
but,
1836
00:38:34.449 --> 00:38:34.580
you know,
1837
00:38:34.699 --> 00:38:35.169
she's already won her,
1838
00:38:35.280 --> 00:38:36.699
she won her primary comfortably,
1839
00:38:36.790 --> 00:38:37.370
uh,
1840
00:38:37.979 --> 00:38:38.939
she's gonna win this race,
1841
00:38:39.010 --> 00:38:39.260
OK?
1842
00:38:39.379 --> 00:38:40.060
That's at least where you'd,
1843
00:38:40.139 --> 00:38:40.699
you'd enter.
1844
00:38:42.340 --> 00:38:43.379
There were some bumps though.
1845
00:38:43.540 --> 00:38:44.060
There were some bumps.
1846
00:38:44.129 --> 00:38:45.050
Let me show you this,
1847
00:38:45.090 --> 00:38:45.530
uh,
1848
00:38:45.699 --> 00:38:46.239
this house,
1849
00:38:46.379 --> 00:38:47.330
uh,
1850
00:38:47.340 --> 00:38:47.689
uh,
1851
00:38:47.699 --> 00:38:47.709
uh,
1852
00:38:47.719 --> 00:38:47.810
uh,
1853
00:38:47.820 --> 00:38:49.050
market here for this is,
1854
00:38:49.060 --> 00:38:49.290
uh,
1855
00:38:49.300 --> 00:38:50.030
Calci Market.
1856
00:38:50.610 --> 00:38:51.780
She's now at 93.7.
1857
00:38:52.080 --> 00:38:54.080
Zoom into the last like week or so though,
1858
00:38:54.179 --> 00:38:54.770
um,
1859
00:38:55.179 --> 00:38:56.070
because you see here,
1860
00:38:56.139 --> 00:38:56.639
she was down at,
1861
00:38:56.820 --> 00:38:57.739
what's her low point there,
1862
00:38:57.820 --> 00:38:58.899
October 12th-ish,
1863
00:38:59.300 --> 00:38:59.370
uh,
1864
00:38:59.379 --> 00:39:00.090
92.
1865
00:39:00.179 --> 00:39:03.699
I thought I saw her in the 91s at 1.91
1866
00:39:03.969 --> 00:39:04.570
and maybe it hits there.
1867
00:39:04.580 --> 00:39:06.050
It's hard to tell on this particular graph,
1868
00:39:06.129 --> 00:39:06.399
but
1869
00:39:06.689 --> 00:39:06.860
she's,
1870
00:39:06.939 --> 00:39:07.699
she's bouncing around there.
1871
00:39:07.750 --> 00:39:08.899
She's got two opponents,
1872
00:39:09.139 --> 00:39:09.459
uh,
1873
00:39:09.739 --> 00:39:11.320
John Nagle and Davell Jackson.
1874
00:39:12.050 --> 00:39:12.340
Um,
1875
00:39:12.500 --> 00:39:12.979
Nagle is,
1876
00:39:13.060 --> 00:39:13.340
I think,
1877
00:39:13.379 --> 00:39:13.790
has a,
1878
00:39:13.820 --> 00:39:14.020
a,
1879
00:39:14.139 --> 00:39:15.459
a law enforcement background,
1880
00:39:15.500 --> 00:39:17.370
which is kind of an interesting contrast
1881
00:39:17.580 --> 00:39:18.820
when it comes to Omar.
1882
00:39:19.260 --> 00:39:23.340
But the chances of anyone beating her here are incredibly low,
1883
00:39:23.419 --> 00:39:24.479
as shown by this.
1884
00:39:25.060 --> 00:39:25.219
Go,
1885
00:39:25.379 --> 00:39:25.620
uh,
1886
00:39:25.699 --> 00:39:26.870
zoom back out to a month or,
1887
00:39:26.899 --> 00:39:27.439
or so.
1888
00:39:27.540 --> 00:39:29.350
If you look back before the raid though,
1889
00:39:29.530 --> 00:39:30.719
what we're gonna talk about here in a second,
1890
00:39:31.060 --> 00:39:33.250
you see what's her peak in the late September,
1891
00:39:33.379 --> 00:39:33.830
uh,
1892
00:39:34.129 --> 00:39:34.260
situation,
1893
00:39:34.379 --> 00:39:34.610
uh,
1894
00:39:34.659 --> 00:39:35.580
a little bit earlier than that.
1895
00:39:36.070 --> 00:39:36.879
Uh,
1896
00:39:37.070 --> 00:39:37.429
right there,
1897
00:39:37.510 --> 00:39:40.340
98.6%. That's what this race normally would look like.
1898
00:39:40.429 --> 00:39:41.570
You see the drop off.
1899
00:39:41.949 --> 00:39:42.270
And,
1900
00:39:42.510 --> 00:39:42.709
you know,
1901
00:39:42.830 --> 00:39:43.870
I was able to pick up some shares.
1902
00:39:43.949 --> 00:39:45.469
I thought it was in the high 91s,
1903
00:39:45.570 --> 00:39:46.739
might have been low 92s,
1904
00:39:46.750 --> 00:39:47.070
but,
1905
00:39:47.409 --> 00:39:47.669
uh,
1906
00:39:47.790 --> 00:39:48.350
that is,
1907
00:39:48.389 --> 00:39:49.209
uh,
1908
00:39:50.030 --> 00:39:51.129
I thought that was value when,
1909
00:39:51.139 --> 00:39:52.149
when this raid happened.
1910
00:39:52.229 --> 00:39:52.750
The raid is,
1911
00:39:52.790 --> 00:39:53.159
uh,
1912
00:39:53.850 --> 00:39:55.229
US probe at Bill Omarer focusing on her birth date,
1913
00:39:55.489 --> 00:39:56.449
citizenship papers,
1914
00:39:56.709 --> 00:39:57.010
um,
1915
00:39:57.189 --> 00:39:57.909
etc.
1916
00:39:58.310 --> 00:39:58.620
Uh,
1917
00:39:58.709 --> 00:40:01.590
Ihan Omar's staff got her birthday changed
1918
00:40:01.590 --> 00:40:03.270
officially after being elected to Congress.
1919
00:40:03.350 --> 00:40:04.620
This doesn't seem to be controversial,
1920
00:40:04.669 --> 00:40:05.129
by the way.
1921
00:40:05.260 --> 00:40:07.270
This seemed to be something that actually did happen.
1922
00:40:07.350 --> 00:40:07.620
Now,
1923
00:40:07.870 --> 00:40:08.739
her defense on that is,
1924
00:40:08.830 --> 00:40:08.919
hell,
1925
00:40:09.070 --> 00:40:09.189
well,
1926
00:40:09.350 --> 00:40:10.149
they had the date wrong,
1927
00:40:10.229 --> 00:40:11.209
so I told them to change it.
1928
00:40:12.050 --> 00:40:15.860
The reason why is her immigration situation would be totally different if she was,
1929
00:40:15.979 --> 00:40:17.580
if this age difference is correct,
1930
00:40:17.699 --> 00:40:17.889
right?
1931
00:40:18.040 --> 00:40:18.679
If she came here,
1932
00:40:19.100 --> 00:40:21.219
she had initially told people she came here as a,
1933
00:40:21.260 --> 00:40:21.590
uh,
1934
00:40:21.699 --> 00:40:21.899
you know,
1935
00:40:22.010 --> 00:40:22.959
a child,
1936
00:40:23.060 --> 00:40:23.330
and,
1937
00:40:23.340 --> 00:40:23.600
uh,
1938
00:40:23.620 --> 00:40:24.719
so she was under 18.
1939
00:40:25.139 --> 00:40:25.899
I think that's the way it works.
1940
00:40:25.939 --> 00:40:27.699
It's been a while since I've looked at that story,
1941
00:40:27.899 --> 00:40:28.100
um,
1942
00:40:28.239 --> 00:40:29.209
but she changed it,
1943
00:40:29.219 --> 00:40:30.330
so she was,
1944
00:40:30.340 --> 00:40:30.649
uh,
1945
00:40:30.659 --> 00:40:30.989
under,
1946
00:40:31.139 --> 00:40:31.250
uh,
1947
00:40:31.300 --> 00:40:31.419
yeah,
1948
00:40:31.530 --> 00:40:31.959
she was,
1949
00:40:32.469 --> 00:40:33.929
she initially said she was an adult and then she,
1950
00:40:33.979 --> 00:40:34.290
I think,
1951
00:40:34.300 --> 00:40:35.449
changed it to her child,
1952
00:40:35.459 --> 00:40:36.659
so she would have different immigration.
1953
00:40:37.070 --> 00:40:37.699
Um,
1954
00:40:37.719 --> 00:40:38.229
requirements.
1955
00:40:38.510 --> 00:40:39.040
Long story short,
1956
00:40:39.120 --> 00:40:40.120
she's a very well-known figure.
1957
00:40:40.229 --> 00:40:41.840
I don't know how much of it comes from Maroon 5,
1958
00:40:42.239 --> 00:40:42.860
maybe a lot,
1959
00:40:43.030 --> 00:40:43.159
uh,
1960
00:40:43.229 --> 00:40:44.310
but this is the graph what it looks like.
1961
00:40:44.320 --> 00:40:45.679
She's at 73% of,
1962
00:40:45.770 --> 00:40:46.699
of fame rating
1963
00:40:47.080 --> 00:40:48.120
on from YouGov,
1964
00:40:48.399 --> 00:40:48.479
uh,
1965
00:40:48.550 --> 00:40:49.580
39%,
1966
00:40:50.199 --> 00:40:50.479
uh,
1967
00:40:50.600 --> 00:40:50.770
uh,
1968
00:40:50.840 --> 00:40:51.719
popularity,
1969
00:40:51.989 --> 00:40:52.239
uh,
1970
00:40:52.320 --> 00:40:53.179
20%,
1971
00:40:53.280 --> 00:40:53.469
uh,
1972
00:40:53.600 --> 00:40:54.250
dislike,
1973
00:40:54.550 --> 00:40:54.679
uh,
1974
00:40:54.760 --> 00:40:55.830
and 13%,
1975
00:40:55.899 --> 00:40:55.989
you know,
1976
00:40:56.120 --> 00:40:56.280
don't,
1977
00:40:56.350 --> 00:40:57.040
people don't really care.
1978
00:40:57.120 --> 00:40:57.189
But,
1979
00:40:57.199 --> 00:40:57.360
you know,
1980
00:40:57.429 --> 00:40:58.350
there's a lot of,
1981
00:40:58.370 --> 00:40:59.020
uh,
1982
00:40:59.080 --> 00:41:00.709
opinion all over the board on Elon Omar.
1983
00:41:00.830 --> 00:41:02.570
Give me the market one more time if you get a second.
1984
00:41:02.800 --> 00:41:04.600
I'm just saying that like if you're looking for something.
1985
00:41:05.159 --> 00:41:05.669
Um,
1986
00:41:06.199 --> 00:41:07.530
where you think there's certainty,
1987
00:41:07.649 --> 00:41:08.209
you get that like,
1988
00:41:08.300 --> 00:41:08.449
you know,
1989
00:41:08.530 --> 00:41:09.330
7 to 8%.
1990
00:41:09.399 --> 00:41:09.550
Again,
1991
00:41:09.649 --> 00:41:10.290
nothing is certain.
1992
00:41:10.409 --> 00:41:12.530
First Amendment of the Constitution is a sure thing,
1993
00:41:12.610 --> 00:41:13.870
always has air quotes.
1994
00:41:14.129 --> 00:41:14.590
But
1995
00:41:14.969 --> 00:41:17.050
I wanna scroll down on this market a little bit if we could,
1996
00:41:17.129 --> 00:41:17.330
Adam,
1997
00:41:17.489 --> 00:41:19.270
because I just to give you an idea
1998
00:41:19.570 --> 00:41:20.250
of what,
1999
00:41:20.330 --> 00:41:21.159
where this market is.
2000
00:41:21.330 --> 00:41:23.550
The fact that you're getting 10% of the market with 3,
2001
00:41:24.649 --> 00:41:26.510
weeks remaining before the election,
2002
00:41:26.649 --> 00:41:26.959
and again,
2003
00:41:26.979 --> 00:41:28.790
it's probably more like 8% right now,
2004
00:41:29.449 --> 00:41:29.729
scroll,
2005
00:41:29.840 --> 00:41:30.729
keep scrolling down,
2006
00:41:30.850 --> 00:41:31.050
uh,
2007
00:41:31.209 --> 00:41:32.729
see if they have a margin market down there.
2008
00:41:33.350 --> 00:41:33.419
Now,
2009
00:41:33.469 --> 00:41:34.110
I thought to myself,
2010
00:41:34.189 --> 00:41:34.270
well,
2011
00:41:34.310 --> 00:41:35.590
what if I can pick her to only win,
2012
00:41:35.750 --> 00:41:36.830
maybe I'll get better value.
2013
00:41:36.909 --> 00:41:39.030
Can I get her in the 80s for a 10 point margin?
2014
00:41:39.110 --> 00:41:41.169
Click on Democratic margin of victory and show more.
2015
00:41:42.419 --> 00:41:45.169
The lowest margin of victory they offer
2016
00:41:45.389 --> 00:41:47.870
is Omar + 47.
2017
00:41:49.629 --> 00:41:51.879
Which is an 87% chance of happening still.
2018
00:41:52.060 --> 00:41:53.030
Omar 50
2019
00:41:53.189 --> 00:41:54.229
is 82%.
2020
00:41:54.310 --> 00:41:54.620
Remember,
2021
00:41:54.669 --> 00:41:56.649
you can buy her just to win
2022
00:41:56.870 --> 00:41:57.989
at 93.
2023
00:41:58.729 --> 00:41:59.209
And they're,
2024
00:41:59.449 --> 00:42:03.669
the next margin market to get her to win by 47 points
2025
00:42:03.969 --> 00:42:05.050
is 87%.
2026
00:42:05.929 --> 00:42:06.649
So first of all,
2027
00:42:06.810 --> 00:42:08.909
do not buy the contract
2028
00:42:09.209 --> 00:42:12.489
of Omar winning by 47 points to get 87%.
2029
00:42:12.729 --> 00:42:13.959
Getting a 6 point,
2030
00:42:14.050 --> 00:42:17.280
a little bit of an advantage there is not worth a 47 point trade-off.
2031
00:42:17.330 --> 00:42:17.629
But
2032
00:42:17.969 --> 00:42:20.889
my point there is that the fact that you can get her in the low 90s.
2033
00:42:21.979 --> 00:42:23.409
Is really remarkable.
2034
00:42:23.649 --> 00:42:25.780
That is not a price you should be able to get her at right now.
2035
00:42:25.899 --> 00:42:26.560
So again,
2036
00:42:26.939 --> 00:42:27.760
is she going to win?
2037
00:42:27.899 --> 00:42:28.320
Yeah.
2038
00:42:28.709 --> 00:42:28.719
The,
2039
00:42:28.790 --> 00:42:28.800
uh,
2040
00:42:28.820 --> 00:42:29.090
you know,
2041
00:42:29.300 --> 00:42:30.360
I will be honest with you,
2042
00:42:30.459 --> 00:42:33.340
even if she gets arrested before the election,
2043
00:42:33.419 --> 00:42:35.379
I still think she'll win this election.
2044
00:42:36.360 --> 00:42:38.780
So that's how certain I am on that one.
2045
00:42:39.199 --> 00:42:39.780
if you want to get,
2046
00:42:39.790 --> 00:42:39.949
uh,
2047
00:42:39.959 --> 00:42:40.879
into a market like that,
2048
00:42:40.959 --> 00:42:41.560
it is available.
2049
00:42:41.639 --> 00:42:42.239
Ihan Omar,
2050
00:42:42.360 --> 00:42:43.100
our candidate
2051
00:42:43.399 --> 00:42:44.139
of the day,
2052
00:42:44.439 --> 00:42:44.959
back in a second.
2053
00:42:55.679 --> 00:42:55.969
I want to,
2054
00:42:56.000 --> 00:42:56.129
uh,
2055
00:42:56.169 --> 00:42:57.479
end the show today with a,
2056
00:42:57.489 --> 00:42:57.919
uh,
2057
00:42:57.929 --> 00:42:58.270
quick
2058
00:42:58.780 --> 00:43:00.449
update on our friend Keith Malinak.
2059
00:43:00.530 --> 00:43:03.600
You may have seen him on the program just a few weeks ago as we did our NFL,
2060
00:43:03.689 --> 00:43:03.989
uh,
2061
00:43:04.250 --> 00:43:05.169
wins and losses,
2062
00:43:05.239 --> 00:43:05.449
uh,
2063
00:43:05.560 --> 00:43:06.149
over under
2064
00:43:06.570 --> 00:43:07.030
draft.
2065
00:43:07.250 --> 00:43:07.659
Um,
2066
00:43:08.629 --> 00:43:08.860
Keith,
2067
00:43:08.879 --> 00:43:09.070
uh,
2068
00:43:09.080 --> 00:43:09.879
worked with me for many years,
2069
00:43:10.000 --> 00:43:10.739
hired him over at the,
2070
00:43:10.760 --> 00:43:10.800
uh,
2071
00:43:10.909 --> 00:43:12.510
Glenn Beck program a million years ago,
2072
00:43:12.679 --> 00:43:14.120
and he's worked here at the Blaze,
2073
00:43:14.270 --> 00:43:14.629
uh,
2074
00:43:14.760 --> 00:43:15.629
with me and,
2075
00:43:15.679 --> 00:43:16.129
uh,
2076
00:43:16.139 --> 00:43:17.840
Glenn and Pat Gray unleashed,
2077
00:43:18.000 --> 00:43:18.570
Jeffy,
2078
00:43:18.919 --> 00:43:19.110
uh,
2079
00:43:19.159 --> 00:43:19.469
for many,
2080
00:43:19.520 --> 00:43:20.010
many years.
2081
00:43:20.080 --> 00:43:20.860
If you didn't hear,
2082
00:43:21.090 --> 00:43:21.270
uh,
2083
00:43:21.399 --> 00:43:21.989
last week,
2084
00:43:22.040 --> 00:43:22.699
he
2085
00:43:22.840 --> 00:43:24.199
walked out in the middle of the show,
2086
00:43:24.360 --> 00:43:24.429
uh,
2087
00:43:24.479 --> 00:43:25.510
kind of in the middle of a segment.
2088
00:43:25.639 --> 00:43:25.760
Uh,
2089
00:43:25.840 --> 00:43:26.679
no one knew what was going on.
2090
00:43:26.760 --> 00:43:27.560
He wound up having a,
2091
00:43:27.639 --> 00:43:28.620
a stroke,
2092
00:43:29.040 --> 00:43:29.360
um,
2093
00:43:29.530 --> 00:43:29.870
and,
2094
00:43:29.879 --> 00:43:30.409
uh,
2095
00:43:30.500 --> 00:43:30.919
it's really,
2096
00:43:31.000 --> 00:43:31.350
really,
2097
00:43:31.370 --> 00:43:31.600
uh,
2098
00:43:31.719 --> 00:43:32.060
terrible.
2099
00:43:32.810 --> 00:43:33.189
He,
2100
00:43:33.290 --> 00:43:33.949
um,
2101
00:43:34.570 --> 00:43:35.729
is struggling for his life.
2102
00:43:35.810 --> 00:43:36.010
I mean,
2103
00:43:36.129 --> 00:43:36.770
to be honest with you,
2104
00:43:36.889 --> 00:43:39.270
he is in critical but stable condition.
2105
00:43:39.360 --> 00:43:40.550
We just got an update from,
2106
00:43:40.570 --> 00:43:40.780
uh,
2107
00:43:40.790 --> 00:43:41.000
Jeff.
2108
00:43:41.050 --> 00:43:43.090
I've been pestering Jeffy constantly for updates,
2109
00:43:43.449 --> 00:43:43.729
um,
2110
00:43:43.889 --> 00:43:44.989
and this is a good one.
2111
00:43:45.449 --> 00:43:46.810
we're going in the right direction a little bit here,
2112
00:43:46.889 --> 00:43:47.469
I think.
2113
00:43:47.810 --> 00:43:48.129
Um,
2114
00:43:48.209 --> 00:43:48.639
he says,
2115
00:43:48.729 --> 00:43:48.840
uh,
2116
00:43:48.850 --> 00:43:49.979
this is from his wife Carrie,
2117
00:43:50.169 --> 00:43:52.989
we wanna thank everyone for their generosity in prayer and in donations.
2118
00:43:53.169 --> 00:43:56.760
Keith loves sharing his life with you and feels as if he knows each of you personally.
2119
00:43:57.169 --> 00:43:57.280
Uh,
2120
00:43:57.330 --> 00:43:59.370
he is able to communicate with his eyes.
2121
00:44:00.120 --> 00:44:00.639
Um,
2122
00:44:00.729 --> 00:44:01.199
so we now,
2123
00:44:01.280 --> 00:44:02.560
we now know he hears us.
2124
00:44:02.679 --> 00:44:02.689
Uh,
2125
00:44:02.800 --> 00:44:02.959
you know,
2126
00:44:03.080 --> 00:44:04.479
you think about like every movie you've ever
2127
00:44:04.479 --> 00:44:06.709
seen about a coma situation where the person,
2128
00:44:06.959 --> 00:44:07.080
you know,
2129
00:44:07.159 --> 00:44:08.149
maybe never wakes up,
2130
00:44:08.239 --> 00:44:08.590
right?
2131
00:44:08.879 --> 00:44:10.270
The idea that he's actually communicating,
2132
00:44:10.320 --> 00:44:11.199
I assume that's like what,
2133
00:44:11.280 --> 00:44:12.120
one blink for yes,
2134
00:44:12.239 --> 00:44:13.520
two blinks for no type of stuff,
2135
00:44:13.719 --> 00:44:14.500
very basic,
2136
00:44:14.760 --> 00:44:15.080
but
2137
00:44:15.199 --> 00:44:16.020
a positive turn
2138
00:44:16.239 --> 00:44:16.429
in,
2139
00:44:16.479 --> 00:44:17.080
in a really,
2140
00:44:17.159 --> 00:44:18.540
really rough freaking week.
2141
00:44:18.840 --> 00:44:19.399
Um.
2142
00:44:20.510 --> 00:44:20.709
He,
2143
00:44:20.760 --> 00:44:21.110
you know,
2144
00:44:21.189 --> 00:44:21.969
uh,
2145
00:44:22.350 --> 00:44:23.550
I don't know if you can,
2146
00:44:23.830 --> 00:44:24.169
Jeffy,
2147
00:44:24.350 --> 00:44:26.270
he's at at Jeffy JFR on,
2148
00:44:26.330 --> 00:44:26.709
um,
2149
00:44:26.870 --> 00:44:27.590
on X,
2150
00:44:27.709 --> 00:44:27.780
uh,
2151
00:44:27.870 --> 00:44:28.139
go there.
2152
00:44:28.189 --> 00:44:30.969
He's the one kind of providing as many updates that that is possible,
2153
00:44:31.429 --> 00:44:31.820
um,
2154
00:44:32.030 --> 00:44:32.229
you know,
2155
00:44:32.310 --> 00:44:32.570
the,
2156
00:44:32.669 --> 00:44:32.820
the,
2157
00:44:32.870 --> 00:44:33.189
the family,
2158
00:44:33.229 --> 00:44:33.689
of course,
2159
00:44:33.830 --> 00:44:35.929
is doing their best to deal with all of this.
2160
00:44:36.030 --> 00:44:38.310
There is a gift you send go as well if we've linked that on,
2161
00:44:38.419 --> 00:44:39.429
on X a bunch of times as well.
2162
00:44:39.510 --> 00:44:41.110
I've actually bottom of the screen right now,
2163
00:44:41.469 --> 00:44:41.629
um,
2164
00:44:41.709 --> 00:44:42.310
if you'd like to,
2165
00:44:42.389 --> 00:44:42.479
uh,
2166
00:44:42.540 --> 00:44:43.979
people have been very generous and,
2167
00:44:44.070 --> 00:44:45.229
and helping out because,
2168
00:44:45.310 --> 00:44:45.469
you know,
2169
00:44:45.590 --> 00:44:47.570
of course these bills are going to be completely ridiculous,
2170
00:44:47.909 --> 00:44:48.620
as we all know.
2171
00:44:48.929 --> 00:44:49.169
Um,
2172
00:44:49.290 --> 00:44:49.469
but,
2173
00:44:49.530 --> 00:44:49.959
uh,
2174
00:44:50.129 --> 00:44:50.250
we,
2175
00:44:50.330 --> 00:44:50.719
we love you,
2176
00:44:50.810 --> 00:44:50.969
Keith,
2177
00:44:51.010 --> 00:44:51.790
and we miss you.
2178
00:44:51.850 --> 00:44:52.110
And,
2179
00:44:52.129 --> 00:44:52.639
uh,
2180
00:44:52.649 --> 00:44:53.250
hopefully this is,
2181
00:44:53.370 --> 00:44:54.510
this is some good news going,
2182
00:44:54.560 --> 00:44:54.810
uh,
2183
00:44:54.889 --> 00:44:55.770
going forward.
2184
00:44:56.169 --> 00:44:56.330
Uh,
2185
00:44:56.409 --> 00:44:57.610
hopefully we continue to get more.
2186
00:44:57.729 --> 00:44:58.000
OK,
2187
00:44:58.080 --> 00:44:58.209
uh,
2188
00:44:58.290 --> 00:44:59.250
predictableShow.com.
2189
00:44:59.409 --> 00:45:00.669
Join us there as well.
2190
00:45:00.959 --> 00:45:01.169
Uh,
2191
00:45:01.239 --> 00:45:03.600
we will have more prediction market material and,
2192
00:45:03.610 --> 00:45:03.830
uh,
2193
00:45:03.840 --> 00:45:04.530
some interesting stuff,
2194
00:45:04.649 --> 00:45:05.169
some new markets,
2195
00:45:05.280 --> 00:45:06.929
some stranger bizarre ones as well.
2196
00:45:07.010 --> 00:45:08.110
We'll get into tomorrow,
2197
00:45:08.409 --> 00:45:08.530
uh,
2198
00:45:08.610 --> 00:45:09.610
and more election talk.
2199
00:45:09.689 --> 00:45:10.370
We're getting really,
2200
00:45:10.449 --> 00:45:10.889
really close,
2201
00:45:10.969 --> 00:45:11.750
boys and girls.
2202
00:45:12.090 --> 00:45:12.899
We will see you tomorrow.