Stu’s HEROIC Market Position You Can’t Afford to Miss!

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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Big show today.
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Uh,
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we have,
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we're only a few days away from another set of runoffs.
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We'll tell you a little bit about that.
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We have Stephen Kent joining us from the Consumer Choice Center,
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uh,
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you know,
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talking about prediction markets,
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some of his favorite positions,
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and also,
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uh,
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what is the state of affairs in DC,
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what's going on there,
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that's where he's from,
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so he'll we'll get into that as well.
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And
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I have to tell you about a national
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emergency,
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a potential national emergency
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that you might not know about yet.
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It's very,
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very important,
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and we'll get to that next.
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Well,
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welcome
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to Predictable.
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PredictableShow.com is the place to go to get uh
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all the information you need on prediction markets,
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elections,
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and so much more.
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We are 75 days away from the midterm elections.
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75 days.
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You might think that's kind of close.
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Not that far away.
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Well,
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what if I were to tell you it's 29 days
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until people start voting on those midterm elections,
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which is kind of interesting.
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There was a time in which we used to vote on election day.
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No more.
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29 days since the first round or till the first round of early voting,
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uh,
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begins.
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This is what the election calendar looks like right now.
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I left one off the other day by mistake,
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uh,
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South Carolina,
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the runoff,
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uh,
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very,
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very important one.
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We've talked about it.
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Basically,
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constantly.
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In fact,
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I talked about it in the show,
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uh,
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yesterday,
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but then forgot to put it in our little schedules.
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We have Oklahoma,
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the runoff,
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we have South Carolina,
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the runoff that is on Tuesday,
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uh,
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then on September 1st,
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Massachusetts,
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September 8th,
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New Hampshire and Rhode Island,
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and September 15th,
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Delaware,
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and then we're done.
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That's it for the primaries.
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We've got a lot
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uh to come.
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So we still have about a month of these primaries,
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so we're gonna be joining you on Tuesday nights that will happen,
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uh,
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coming up here in,
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uh,
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you know,
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for the next few weeks.
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Uh,
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we'll be doing the live vote coverage as it all comes out,
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trying to take advantage of those prediction markets,
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uh,
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as we,
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uh,
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as we go.
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Um,
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I wanna say too,
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we have this available for you.
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Predictable 101.
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It is a free guide.
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This is a printed version of it.
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We'll send you a digital copy of it.
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It's up to you whether you wanna print it.
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OK,
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I like printing stuff.
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But anyway,
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uh,
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this is what it looks like.
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It is a chock full of great information and,
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uh,
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you know,
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different things about,
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uh,
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prediction markets,
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how to sign up,
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how to fund your accounts,
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how to trade,
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all the basics
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are in there.
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Uh,
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we have some videos coming as well to go,
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to go along with this,
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but I wanted to get this out to you as fast as possible.
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If you're one of those people
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that is,
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uh,
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attempting,
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this shirt is driving me crazy,
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uh,
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attempting,
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uh,
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to,
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uh,
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get into the prediction markets right now,
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uh,
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and you don't wanna wait.
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That's an important thing.
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We wanna get that to you.
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How do you get it?
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Well,
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you go to predictableShow.com.
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You sign up to the free service,
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it's totally free.
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Uh,
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free,
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uh,
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membership over at the sub stack,
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and when you do that,
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we we'll email this resource to you right away,
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so you can look at it and get started.
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If you're looking to kind of just dabble a little bit,
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get started,
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a lot of people ask me those questions,
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like,
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hey,
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wait a minute,
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I know you keep talking about
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laddering out of a position.
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What does that mean?
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Uh,
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forget that.
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How do I sign up for a site?
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Where,
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which site should I use?
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Uh,
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what,
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uh,
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you know,
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how much money should I be putting in this?
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Uh,
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how do I trade?
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All these basic questions are really important as you're getting started.
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I wanna make sure this is clear though.
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You have plenty of time.
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You're not too late,
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you're still very,
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very early,
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you're ahead of all your friends on this.
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Most of your friends probably don't know how to do this stuff at all.
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The fact that you're here at all,
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it makes you way out in front of this situation.
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It is going to be a very,
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very big deal as we go into these elections and certainly as we go into 2028,
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it's gonna be massive.
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So,
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don't miss out on your opportunity to understand this stuff before,
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uh,
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everyone's trying to jump in last second and throwing money around.
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Don't be one of those people.
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We're gonna be the smart people,
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we're gonna do all the stuff,
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we get all prepared,
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so we're all ready to go.
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Join us at predictableshow.com.
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We do talk about prediction markets a lot on the show.
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But we talk about the country and how to understand the country,
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and that's why I want you to understand
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that there is a prediction market I wanna talk to you about here today,
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but it surrounds something much,
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much more important.
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A potential national emergency.
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This is the type of emergency that we have to all work together
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to prevent.
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It is vitally important
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that you do your part and I do my part to make sure
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we stop this.
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National tragedy,
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potentially national tragedy,
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uh,
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from occurring.
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I want to talk to you today
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about screwworm.
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Mhm.
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Screw worm.
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Have you heard about screw worm?
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Have you heard about what's going on
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with screw worm right now in this country right now?
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An invasion.
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You've heard about a lot of invasions.
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They've come all around the world,
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maybe on our border,
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but have you heard
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about the screwworm
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invasion in our country?
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Probably not.
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Media is hiding from,
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from you,
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uh,
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constantly.
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Is there a screwworm apocalypse?
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Maybe,
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maybe.
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And it's important you know about it.
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I'm gonna tell you about this.
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There's a slight part of it's kind of gross,
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but I'm gonna try to skip all those parts
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and just give you the information you need to know,
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so we can work together to stop screwworm
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in its tracks.
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About New World screwworm,
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this comes from the CDC.
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It's a real thing,
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I'm not making it up.
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New World
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screwworm,
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look at these little buggers.
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You want one of those things around you?
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Ew,
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that is a disgusting little creature.
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Why does it even exist?
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I don't understand.
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What does it do?
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It eats your flesh.
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Yeah,
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it's one of those things,
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it's a flesh eating guy,
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and he will uh put these little mouth hooks.
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Uh,
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don't zoom in on it.
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You crazy?
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That thing,
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the closer it gets to you,
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the scarier it becomes.
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It uses these little mouth hooks to get that off the screen,
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it's creeping me out.
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Now,
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you might say.
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How come I've never heard about this before?
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What do you mean screw worm?
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What is this?
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Well,
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it's been a problem in the United States for a a a long,
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long time.
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However,
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it was believed to be a problem we had solved,
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OK?
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The history of screw worms
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in the US.
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If you go back
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in the day.
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Screw worm is a huge problem.
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I mean,
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it costs,
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you know,
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billions and billions of dollars of damage because
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basically what happens
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is these little,
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uh,
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flies,
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OK,
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they lay their eggs and they turn into these little,
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then they're,
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it's called screw worm,
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even though it's really more like a,
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a maggot or larvae,
290
00:06:22.899 --> 00:06:22.910
uh,
291
00:06:22.920 --> 00:06:23.480
larvae,
292
00:06:23.559 --> 00:06:23.720
right?
293
00:06:23.799 --> 00:06:24.040
It's,
294
00:06:24.160 --> 00:06:25.170
they lay their eggs,
295
00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:25.679
uh,
296
00:06:25.760 --> 00:06:26.079
and they,
297
00:06:26.130 --> 00:06:27.739
they get sheep infected.
298
00:06:28.079 --> 00:06:28.579
And then,
299
00:06:28.600 --> 00:06:28.869
uh,
300
00:06:28.880 --> 00:06:30.100
when that starts happening,
301
00:06:30.399 --> 00:06:31.420
it's possible,
302
00:06:31.839 --> 00:06:32.420
though
303
00:06:32.640 --> 00:06:33.339
difficult
304
00:06:33.799 --> 00:06:35.339
for this to pass
305
00:06:35.480 --> 00:06:36.359
to human beings.
306
00:06:36.929 --> 00:06:38.399
Little flies buzz around.
307
00:06:38.609 --> 00:06:40.179
They're buzzing around all over the place,
308
00:06:40.250 --> 00:06:41.119
and then they land on you.
309
00:06:41.170 --> 00:06:41.329
And they,
310
00:06:41.410 --> 00:06:43.049
if they land on you and they lay their eggs on you,
311
00:06:43.160 --> 00:06:43.250
uh,
312
00:06:43.329 --> 00:06:43.649
first of all,
313
00:06:43.720 --> 00:06:44.200
gross,
314
00:06:44.339 --> 00:06:44.769
right?
315
00:06:45.010 --> 00:06:45.750
It's really nasty.
316
00:06:46.329 --> 00:06:47.010
But second of all,
317
00:06:47.049 --> 00:06:48.089
and more importantly,
318
00:06:48.329 --> 00:06:50.269
that doesn't really do much of anything.
319
00:06:50.570 --> 00:06:50.920
If a,
320
00:06:50.970 --> 00:06:52.010
if a screw worm,
321
00:06:52.119 --> 00:06:52.230
uh,
322
00:06:52.290 --> 00:06:53.350
one of the flies comes around,
323
00:06:53.429 --> 00:06:54.640
lays their little eggs on you,
324
00:06:54.850 --> 00:06:55.839
you're pretty much fine.
325
00:06:55.970 --> 00:06:56.950
Everything's gonna be fine.
326
00:06:59.869 --> 00:07:00.609
Except
327
00:07:00.910 --> 00:07:02.950
if they lay the eggs in a certain place,
328
00:07:02.989 --> 00:07:06.299
like an open wound or uh some sort of a scar,
329
00:07:06.309 --> 00:07:07.540
or God knows what,
330
00:07:07.690 --> 00:07:08.109
OK?
331
00:07:08.500 --> 00:07:10.750
The chances of that happening have gotta be really,
332
00:07:10.829 --> 00:07:11.390
really long,
333
00:07:11.510 --> 00:07:11.890
right?
334
00:07:12.720 --> 00:07:14.679
And what happened over a long period of time is
335
00:07:14.679 --> 00:07:17.640
this was infecting uh us up into the 70s,
336
00:07:17.679 --> 00:07:18.239
it was a real,
337
00:07:18.390 --> 00:07:20.200
real problem for us and also more,
338
00:07:20.320 --> 00:07:21.230
even more intensely,
339
00:07:21.239 --> 00:07:22.239
Central America,
340
00:07:22.670 --> 00:07:24.109
uh where this was a,
341
00:07:24.119 --> 00:07:24.320
a,
342
00:07:24.369 --> 00:07:25.359
a big deal.
343
00:07:25.600 --> 00:07:26.959
These worms would kind of,
344
00:07:27.049 --> 00:07:27.320
you know,
345
00:07:27.480 --> 00:07:30.359
get into uh the population of the livestock
346
00:07:30.720 --> 00:07:31.760
and other animals,
347
00:07:32.040 --> 00:07:34.500
and then would become a big problem for human beings.
348
00:07:35.260 --> 00:07:37.040
Then we came up with this like scientific
349
00:07:37.540 --> 00:07:39.440
uh solution to the whole deal,
350
00:07:39.570 --> 00:07:40.079
which was
351
00:07:40.260 --> 00:07:41.820
basically to take a bunch of flies,
352
00:07:42.019 --> 00:07:42.920
the male flies,
353
00:07:43.220 --> 00:07:45.519
and uh make it so they were,
354
00:07:45.700 --> 00:07:46.649
um,
355
00:07:46.660 --> 00:07:47.149
you know,
356
00:07:47.459 --> 00:07:48.579
their stuff didn't work anymore.
357
00:07:48.660 --> 00:07:49.260
How about that?
358
00:07:50.510 --> 00:07:51.649
We kind of just like
359
00:07:52.029 --> 00:07:54.059
evaporated their manhood a little bit,
360
00:07:54.309 --> 00:07:54.739
OK?
361
00:07:54.950 --> 00:07:55.519
And so
362
00:07:55.670 --> 00:07:56.989
the female flies
363
00:07:57.230 --> 00:07:58.529
can only mate once.
364
00:07:58.839 --> 00:07:59.920
So the female flies would be like,
365
00:08:00.010 --> 00:08:00.019
oh,
366
00:08:00.089 --> 00:08:00.959
I'm going out tonight.
367
00:08:01.190 --> 00:08:02.809
I'm gonna go hang out at the fly bar,
368
00:08:03.269 --> 00:08:03.899
uh,
369
00:08:03.970 --> 00:08:05.109
we have a couple of drinks.
370
00:08:05.190 --> 00:08:05.529
Hey,
371
00:08:05.630 --> 00:08:06.549
you're looking pretty good.
372
00:08:06.619 --> 00:08:08.209
Other additional fly.
373
00:08:08.589 --> 00:08:09.670
And that additional fly would be like,
374
00:08:09.709 --> 00:08:09.869
oh,
375
00:08:09.959 --> 00:08:10.070
yeah,
376
00:08:10.149 --> 00:08:11.059
you're looking pretty good too.
377
00:08:11.309 --> 00:08:11.760
The other fly,
378
00:08:11.829 --> 00:08:12.660
the guy flies like,
379
00:08:12.709 --> 00:08:12.829
ah,
380
00:08:12.950 --> 00:08:13.899
I'm all in on this,
381
00:08:14.029 --> 00:08:14.230
right?
382
00:08:14.429 --> 00:08:14.670
As,
383
00:08:14.790 --> 00:08:15.149
I mean,
384
00:08:15.570 --> 00:08:18.119
Flies and humans are a little too similar in that way.
385
00:08:18.220 --> 00:08:19.010
But the flies are like,
386
00:08:19.109 --> 00:08:19.220
the,
387
00:08:19.260 --> 00:08:20.640
the male flies don't know
388
00:08:21.299 --> 00:08:23.350
that they can't really reproduce.
389
00:08:24.480 --> 00:08:25.100
So,
390
00:08:25.380 --> 00:08:26.299
they hook up,
391
00:08:26.519 --> 00:08:27.200
the fly can't,
392
00:08:27.239 --> 00:08:27.440
the,
393
00:08:27.519 --> 00:08:28.859
the female fly can't,
394
00:08:29.029 --> 00:08:29.470
uh,
395
00:08:29.760 --> 00:08:31.820
engage in such activities anymore
396
00:08:32.159 --> 00:08:33.820
after this cause they can only do it once in their life.
397
00:08:34.119 --> 00:08:34.419
And,
398
00:08:34.479 --> 00:08:34.750
uh,
399
00:08:34.799 --> 00:08:35.919
the guy can't get the job done,
400
00:08:35.989 --> 00:08:36.400
frankly.
401
00:08:36.479 --> 00:08:36.640
Uh,
402
00:08:36.719 --> 00:08:36.919
he just,
403
00:08:37.000 --> 00:08:37.320
he just,
404
00:08:37.719 --> 00:08:38.140
he's,
405
00:08:38.739 --> 00:08:39.469
He lays an egg,
406
00:08:39.549 --> 00:08:40.549
and when he's trying to do that,
407
00:08:40.750 --> 00:08:40.859
not,
408
00:08:40.950 --> 00:08:41.859
not in a literal egg,
409
00:08:41.909 --> 00:08:42.380
he's just an,
410
00:08:42.549 --> 00:08:43.099
as a saying,
411
00:08:43.190 --> 00:08:44.010
he laid an egg.
412
00:08:44.229 --> 00:08:44.320
He,
413
00:08:44.390 --> 00:08:46.690
he does not get the job done with the female fly.
414
00:08:46.830 --> 00:08:48.150
And the female fly can't do it anymore,
415
00:08:48.380 --> 00:08:49.969
so these flies started going away
416
00:08:50.150 --> 00:08:52.349
and we had the whole thing eradicated.
417
00:08:52.400 --> 00:08:53.890
I think the last case,
418
00:08:54.309 --> 00:08:55.489
until very recently
419
00:08:55.630 --> 00:08:56.729
in a human being
420
00:08:56.869 --> 00:08:58.380
was back in the 70s.
421
00:08:58.669 --> 00:09:01.409
We went multiple decades with no human beings
422
00:09:01.710 --> 00:09:02.369
getting this
423
00:09:02.590 --> 00:09:03.169
whatsoever.
424
00:09:05.229 --> 00:09:05.890
And then,
425
00:09:06.190 --> 00:09:07.429
in 2025,
426
00:09:07.869 --> 00:09:10.270
it becomes some sort of issue in Central America,
427
00:09:10.349 --> 00:09:11.580
it starts popping back up.
428
00:09:11.830 --> 00:09:13.390
It's getting into uh people,
429
00:09:13.469 --> 00:09:15.349
it's getting into getting into sheep and other
430
00:09:15.349 --> 00:09:17.000
livestock first and then getting into people.
431
00:09:17.309 --> 00:09:17.750
And so,
432
00:09:17.989 --> 00:09:19.130
all this amounts to,
433
00:09:19.429 --> 00:09:21.299
it becomes like a legitimate thing in,
434
00:09:21.380 --> 00:09:21.619
in,
435
00:09:21.669 --> 00:09:24.260
in Central America where hundreds of people get it,
436
00:09:24.460 --> 00:09:25.869
a few people actually die from it.
437
00:09:25.909 --> 00:09:26.030
It's,
438
00:09:26.090 --> 00:09:26.229
I mean,
439
00:09:26.270 --> 00:09:26.789
it's terrible,
440
00:09:26.869 --> 00:09:27.030
it's,
441
00:09:27.059 --> 00:09:27.869
you don't want this.
442
00:09:28.950 --> 00:09:30.489
And one of those people
443
00:09:30.909 --> 00:09:32.450
who's in El Salvador
444
00:09:32.789 --> 00:09:34.239
gets screwworm,
445
00:09:34.630 --> 00:09:34.900
and he,
446
00:09:34.950 --> 00:09:36.289
you know what he decides to do?
447
00:09:36.909 --> 00:09:37.570
Travel
448
00:09:37.789 --> 00:09:39.299
to the United States of America.
449
00:09:39.669 --> 00:09:43.049
Now he's in the United States of America and becomes the first
450
00:09:43.270 --> 00:09:45.330
human screwworm case
451
00:09:45.630 --> 00:09:47.669
in multiple decades in the US.
452
00:09:48.419 --> 00:09:49.940
We think we've got the thing eradicated,
453
00:09:49.979 --> 00:09:50.250
we're like,
454
00:09:50.260 --> 00:09:50.500
this is,
455
00:09:50.580 --> 00:09:52.239
this is guy just travels here.
456
00:09:52.500 --> 00:09:55.770
So now we've gone all these years with 0 cases every single year.
457
00:09:56.219 --> 00:09:57.000
Last year,
458
00:09:57.380 --> 00:09:58.099
1 case.
459
00:10:01.099 --> 00:10:02.239
Now we're dealing with this.
460
00:10:02.619 --> 00:10:04.909
New world screwworm outbreak.
461
00:10:05.219 --> 00:10:05.729
Yes.
462
00:10:06.380 --> 00:10:07.140
It's happening.
463
00:10:07.250 --> 00:10:08.359
Let me show you a map.
464
00:10:08.460 --> 00:10:10.650
This is getting a little personal with this map,
465
00:10:11.020 --> 00:10:12.530
because I am in Texas right now,
466
00:10:12.739 --> 00:10:14.780
and there's a bunch of blue squares and a
467
00:10:14.780 --> 00:10:17.489
couple of orange squares in different counties around Texas,
468
00:10:17.900 --> 00:10:19.719
and some of them are getting awfully close
469
00:10:20.260 --> 00:10:20.940
to yours truly.
470
00:10:21.020 --> 00:10:21.960
I don't
471
00:10:22.419 --> 00:10:23.080
want
472
00:10:23.340 --> 00:10:24.010
screw worm.
473
00:10:24.049 --> 00:10:24.640
I'm,
474
00:10:25.200 --> 00:10:25.210
I,
475
00:10:25.539 --> 00:10:27.000
I will not be able to handle it.
476
00:10:27.419 --> 00:10:28.440
But beyond that,
477
00:10:28.780 --> 00:10:29.419
if you look here,
478
00:10:29.539 --> 00:10:34.179
there are 46 cases in animals that have happened in the United States this year.
479
00:10:34.630 --> 00:10:34.809
Uh,
480
00:10:34.909 --> 00:10:35.369
there were,
481
00:10:35.469 --> 00:10:35.789
uh,
482
00:10:35.869 --> 00:10:36.690
30,
483
00:10:37.070 --> 00:10:37.289
uh,
484
00:10:37.309 --> 00:10:38.210
back in June,
485
00:10:38.590 --> 00:10:39.809
14
486
00:10:40.150 --> 00:10:41.169
in July,
487
00:10:41.590 --> 00:10:42.710
and 2
488
00:10:43.030 --> 00:10:43.510
in August.
489
00:10:43.599 --> 00:10:46.010
So we have a decrease there,
490
00:10:46.309 --> 00:10:48.330
and this is part of my
491
00:10:48.989 --> 00:10:49.950
interest in this case.
492
00:10:50.299 --> 00:10:52.090
44 inactive
493
00:10:52.349 --> 00:10:53.049
cases
494
00:10:53.270 --> 00:10:55.010
of this outbreak and only 2
495
00:10:55.429 --> 00:10:56.130
active
496
00:10:56.349 --> 00:10:57.250
right on the border
497
00:10:57.590 --> 00:10:58.010
of,
498
00:10:58.020 --> 00:10:58.140
uh,
499
00:10:58.150 --> 00:10:58.669
screwworm.
500
00:10:58.710 --> 00:10:58.950
Again,
501
00:10:59.190 --> 00:11:00.409
0 for humans.
502
00:11:02.039 --> 00:11:03.140
It's growing though,
503
00:11:03.599 --> 00:11:04.140
some say
504
00:11:04.400 --> 00:11:07.080
more uh cases of parasitic screw worm are confirmed.
505
00:11:07.159 --> 00:11:07.719
Here's who at risk,
506
00:11:07.799 --> 00:11:08.429
here's who it's spreading.
507
00:11:08.500 --> 00:11:08.679
Again,
508
00:11:08.760 --> 00:11:09.219
this is
509
00:11:09.400 --> 00:11:10.539
a low risk.
510
00:11:11.309 --> 00:11:11.840
To get to you,
511
00:11:11.919 --> 00:11:15.580
but we have to take the steps
512
00:11:15.789 --> 00:11:16.179
necessary
513
00:11:16.549 --> 00:11:17.669
to avoid this.
514
00:11:18.849 --> 00:11:19.940
And if that's not enough,
515
00:11:19.979 --> 00:11:20.609
cause you might be like,
516
00:11:20.900 --> 00:11:22.479
I don't even like the people around me,
517
00:11:22.780 --> 00:11:23.979
let them all get screwworm.
518
00:11:24.059 --> 00:11:25.070
That might be you.
519
00:11:25.419 --> 00:11:26.020
I hope it's not,
520
00:11:26.099 --> 00:11:27.219
but that might be you.
521
00:11:29.679 --> 00:11:30.630
But then you see this,
522
00:11:31.010 --> 00:11:32.890
thousands of dogs,
523
00:11:33.330 --> 00:11:34.049
cats.
524
00:11:35.190 --> 00:11:36.059
You might not like cats,
525
00:11:36.109 --> 00:11:36.989
you might not like dogs,
526
00:11:37.070 --> 00:11:37.330
but
527
00:11:37.710 --> 00:11:38.349
whichever one you like,
528
00:11:38.469 --> 00:11:38.969
think of that one.
529
00:11:39.140 --> 00:11:40.929
Thousands of dogs and cats
530
00:11:41.030 --> 00:11:43.690
at risk of euthanasia over screw worm threat.
531
00:11:43.909 --> 00:11:44.369
Again,
532
00:11:45.130 --> 00:11:45.169
I haven't
533
00:11:46.030 --> 00:11:46.849
actually,
534
00:11:47.190 --> 00:11:47.950
hasn't actually happened,
535
00:11:48.030 --> 00:11:48.890
but they're at risk,
536
00:11:49.059 --> 00:11:50.469
and that's why I want you to take this seriously.
537
00:11:53.239 --> 00:11:54.640
Now all of this ties into,
538
00:11:54.679 --> 00:11:56.739
I wanted to give you that background so you can understand
539
00:11:57.000 --> 00:11:58.900
this particular prediction market.
540
00:12:00.250 --> 00:12:04.450
How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States this year?
541
00:12:04.570 --> 00:12:05.890
This is what this market looks for,
542
00:12:06.070 --> 00:12:06.869
looks like right now.
543
00:12:07.659 --> 00:12:07.869
Uh,
544
00:12:07.989 --> 00:12:09.690
the forecast is
545
00:12:10.229 --> 00:12:11.830
-1.3,
546
00:12:11.909 --> 00:12:12.650
which I don't,
547
00:12:12.869 --> 00:12:15.270
I don't really understand how you could have a negative projection,
548
00:12:15.340 --> 00:12:16.010
but that is
549
00:12:16.270 --> 00:12:17.619
what Calhi is telling us here.
550
00:12:17.909 --> 00:12:18.700
More importantly though,
551
00:12:18.909 --> 00:12:19.989
scroll down a little bit.
552
00:12:20.260 --> 00:12:21.000
And show us,
553
00:12:21.140 --> 00:12:21.690
uh,
554
00:12:21.700 --> 00:12:22.979
the above zero market.
555
00:12:23.049 --> 00:12:23.419
Here we go.
556
00:12:23.580 --> 00:12:24.219
Above 0.
557
00:12:24.340 --> 00:12:28.070
Will there be one case of human screw worm in the United States
558
00:12:28.419 --> 00:12:29.049
this year?
559
00:12:29.299 --> 00:12:31.500
There is a 26% chance,
560
00:12:31.820 --> 00:12:32.739
says this market,
561
00:12:33.020 --> 00:12:33.900
that there will be.
562
00:12:34.150 --> 00:12:35.150
Above 1
563
00:12:35.380 --> 00:12:36.679
is also seemingly at
564
00:12:36.780 --> 00:12:37.799
26%,
565
00:12:38.020 --> 00:12:39.900
then 14% chance you get above 2,
566
00:12:40.099 --> 00:12:42.130
and they get 11% chance it's above 3,
567
00:12:42.299 --> 00:12:44.320
all the way down to above 10 cases
568
00:12:44.460 --> 00:12:46.359
would be only a 6% chance.
569
00:12:48.909 --> 00:12:50.530
I think you know me well enough to know.
570
00:12:51.299 --> 00:12:53.039
That I wouldn't do a segment like this
571
00:12:53.460 --> 00:12:56.059
and put all this importance on this just because I
572
00:12:56.059 --> 00:12:58.659
have a prediction market position in this particular market.
573
00:12:58.739 --> 00:12:59.400
I wouldn't do
574
00:12:59.979 --> 00:13:00.500
such a thing.
575
00:13:01.309 --> 00:13:02.289
As you know,
576
00:13:02.630 --> 00:13:03.690
that would be
577
00:13:04.190 --> 00:13:04.719
wrong,
578
00:13:05.190 --> 00:13:06.770
because what I really care about.
579
00:13:07.440 --> 00:13:08.299
Is you,
580
00:13:08.919 --> 00:13:09.400
me.
581
00:13:10.219 --> 00:13:11.500
The little doggies,
582
00:13:11.909 --> 00:13:12.929
the little kitties.
583
00:13:13.809 --> 00:13:14.710
And the sheep.
584
00:13:15.289 --> 00:13:16.349
That's what I care about.
585
00:13:16.890 --> 00:13:19.530
It's not a prediction market position at all,
586
00:13:19.690 --> 00:13:19.849
no,
587
00:13:19.950 --> 00:13:20.239
no.
588
00:13:20.369 --> 00:13:21.770
This is about saving lives.
589
00:13:22.419 --> 00:13:22.940
OK.
590
00:13:23.700 --> 00:13:25.659
It is vitally important
591
00:13:25.969 --> 00:13:28.229
that we take the steps necessary.
592
00:13:28.900 --> 00:13:29.599
To make sure
593
00:13:30.510 --> 00:13:31.210
we don't
594
00:13:31.469 --> 00:13:32.909
get human screwworm.
595
00:13:35.570 --> 00:13:37.330
I want to be known,
596
00:13:37.630 --> 00:13:41.809
not as a host of a stupid prediction market show or a stupid show with a comedian
597
00:13:41.809 --> 00:13:45.549
or a guy who used to show host a stupid show with a bunch of other people.
598
00:13:46.630 --> 00:13:47.809
I want to be known
599
00:13:48.150 --> 00:13:50.969
as America's number one advocate
600
00:13:51.309 --> 00:13:53.049
for screwworm awareness.
601
00:13:53.830 --> 00:13:55.650
That's who I am at my core.
602
00:13:56.229 --> 00:13:58.890
I want you to be thinking about how to prevent.
603
00:13:59.880 --> 00:14:00.789
Yourself
604
00:14:01.570 --> 00:14:04.400
Or literally anyone else from getting
605
00:14:04.859 --> 00:14:05.969
human screwworm,
606
00:14:06.190 --> 00:14:09.679
or someone in another country getting human screw worm and then
607
00:14:10.099 --> 00:14:10.919
visiting.
608
00:14:11.419 --> 00:14:12.950
That's what I care about.
609
00:14:14.479 --> 00:14:15.409
And that's why
610
00:14:16.280 --> 00:14:18.700
I want you to know that I am America's number one
611
00:14:18.840 --> 00:14:20.440
advocate for screw worm awareness.
612
00:14:20.520 --> 00:14:21.700
That is what I do.
613
00:14:21.909 --> 00:14:22.700
That is
614
00:14:22.960 --> 00:14:23.619
my job.
615
00:14:23.679 --> 00:14:26.059
That is who I am as a man,
616
00:14:26.479 --> 00:14:27.500
as a citizen,
617
00:14:28.159 --> 00:14:29.299
and as a human being.
618
00:14:31.429 --> 00:14:32.559
Just say no.
619
00:14:33.659 --> 00:14:34.599
To screwworm
620
00:14:35.809 --> 00:14:36.549
I hope
621
00:14:38.450 --> 00:14:39.059
I,
622
00:14:39.530 --> 00:14:41.169
and I wanna make sure you understand this.
623
00:14:42.890 --> 00:14:44.280
Cause sometimes they say this and they're like,
624
00:14:44.330 --> 00:14:44.770
00,
625
00:14:45.260 --> 00:14:45.570
gosh you,
626
00:14:45.650 --> 00:14:47.210
11 is too many.
627
00:14:47.489 --> 00:14:47.650
No,
628
00:14:47.729 --> 00:14:48.630
I mean this literally,
629
00:14:48.890 --> 00:14:50.559
1 case is too many.
630
00:14:51.010 --> 00:14:54.289
We need to have 0 cases of screw worm in this country,
631
00:14:54.409 --> 00:14:54.890
0,
632
00:14:54.969 --> 00:14:55.530
not 1,
633
00:14:55.650 --> 00:14:56.210
not 2,
634
00:14:56.289 --> 00:14:57.809
not 50.
635
00:14:59.140 --> 00:15:00.820
We need to stop this.
636
00:15:01.580 --> 00:15:02.640
Immediately
637
00:15:04.289 --> 00:15:05.369
0 cases,
638
00:15:05.570 --> 00:15:07.090
not a bunch of cases,
639
00:15:07.429 --> 00:15:09.010
not a few that turn out OK,
640
00:15:09.119 --> 00:15:09.289
no,
641
00:15:09.450 --> 00:15:10.609
0 cases,
642
00:15:10.729 --> 00:15:12.539
because that's how serious I am
643
00:15:12.809 --> 00:15:14.590
about screwworm awareness.
644
00:15:17.429 --> 00:15:17.549
Look,
645
00:15:17.590 --> 00:15:18.969
we've made it all the way to August.
646
00:15:20.030 --> 00:15:20.890
We've made it through
647
00:15:21.030 --> 00:15:24.369
8 months with 0 cases of screw worm so far.
648
00:15:24.869 --> 00:15:26.419
We need to continue that.
649
00:15:26.590 --> 00:15:30.650
You saw it ramping down from 30 cases to 16 to only 2 in August.
650
00:15:30.909 --> 00:15:31.809
We need
651
00:15:32.349 --> 00:15:33.979
no human cases.
652
00:15:34.270 --> 00:15:34.619
Look,
653
00:15:34.780 --> 00:15:37.549
if all the sheep on the planet get wiped out from screwworm,
654
00:15:38.030 --> 00:15:38.710
like that's bad,
655
00:15:38.789 --> 00:15:39.450
but it's not,
656
00:15:39.830 --> 00:15:40.690
but like I,
657
00:15:40.989 --> 00:15:42.690
what I'm talking about is humans.
658
00:15:43.109 --> 00:15:43.590
I'm a,
659
00:15:43.669 --> 00:15:43.780
I,
660
00:15:43.869 --> 00:15:45.330
I care about humans.
661
00:15:47.669 --> 00:15:49.359
If you live in Texas,
662
00:15:49.719 --> 00:15:52.820
under no circumstances should you go outdoors.
663
00:15:53.950 --> 00:15:55.640
Stay inside all the time.
664
00:15:55.760 --> 00:15:55.869
Now,
665
00:15:55.880 --> 00:15:57.429
I will say in August in Texas,
666
00:15:57.440 --> 00:15:59.119
it's pretty easy to convince people of this,
667
00:15:59.280 --> 00:15:59.799
but I don't,
668
00:15:59.880 --> 00:16:04.700
when you go to a wear a hazmat suit from your work to your car.
669
00:16:05.450 --> 00:16:06.789
That's what I want you to do.
670
00:16:07.330 --> 00:16:08.190
Take every
671
00:16:08.650 --> 00:16:09.469
precaution
672
00:16:09.809 --> 00:16:10.030
necessary.
673
00:16:10.289 --> 00:16:11.989
Wear band-aids for,
674
00:16:12.669 --> 00:16:13.599
for crying out loud,
675
00:16:13.770 --> 00:16:14.729
wear a band-aid.
676
00:16:15.940 --> 00:16:17.780
It won't matter what flies land on you,
677
00:16:17.900 --> 00:16:19.400
but if a fly's coming near you,
678
00:16:19.619 --> 00:16:20.960
you tell it no.
679
00:16:21.140 --> 00:16:22.440
I just say no.
680
00:16:22.900 --> 00:16:24.679
Now it might not be a screwworm fly,
681
00:16:24.900 --> 00:16:25.940
and you might be totally fine,
682
00:16:26.020 --> 00:16:27.280
but if you see a fly,
683
00:16:27.460 --> 00:16:30.539
I want you to run away as if it's a freaking grizzly bear.
684
00:16:34.380 --> 00:16:35.280
Stay
685
00:16:35.659 --> 00:16:37.059
away from flies,
686
00:16:37.179 --> 00:16:39.059
if you're in Texas or frankly anywhere else,
687
00:16:39.219 --> 00:16:40.460
especially if you're close to the border.
688
00:16:43.619 --> 00:16:44.900
I'm not being unreasonable here.
689
00:16:45.940 --> 00:16:47.869
But do it at least until January.
690
00:16:48.229 --> 00:16:48.789
If you,
691
00:16:49.409 --> 00:16:49.630
look,
692
00:16:49.750 --> 00:16:52.340
all I need you to do is to get to January.
693
00:16:52.789 --> 00:16:53.969
Run away from flies,
694
00:16:54.070 --> 00:16:55.349
swat them at all costs,
695
00:16:55.510 --> 00:16:57.250
stay away from sheep.
696
00:16:57.789 --> 00:16:58.929
That's good advice all the time.
697
00:16:59.109 --> 00:17:00.369
Some of these weirdos out there.
698
00:17:00.469 --> 00:17:01.510
Stay away from sheep.
699
00:17:03.330 --> 00:17:05.800
Stay away from screw worm at all costs,
700
00:17:05.848 --> 00:17:07.510
at least until January.
701
00:17:07.829 --> 00:17:09.310
Once we get to 2027,
702
00:17:09.608 --> 00:17:11.949
you wanna have a spring break screw worm party,
703
00:17:12.130 --> 00:17:12.979
you do what you do.
704
00:17:14.108 --> 00:17:15.930
It's important from now
705
00:17:16.108 --> 00:17:17.689
until December 31st,
706
00:17:18.229 --> 00:17:19.170
to make sure
707
00:17:19.949 --> 00:17:22.030
no one in the country gets screwworm.
708
00:17:22.069 --> 00:17:23.459
And if someone calls you and says,
709
00:17:23.510 --> 00:17:23.589
hey,
710
00:17:23.670 --> 00:17:24.589
I've got screw worm,
711
00:17:24.790 --> 00:17:25.500
can I come visit?
712
00:17:25.630 --> 00:17:27.050
You say no.
713
00:17:28.078 --> 00:17:29.879
Just say no.
714
00:17:30.750 --> 00:17:31.689
To screw worm
715
00:17:32.839 --> 00:17:34.709
I hope this message has come through
716
00:17:34.930 --> 00:17:35.670
loud
717
00:17:36.260 --> 00:17:37.030
and clear.
718
00:17:37.530 --> 00:17:39.270
And I hope you will take action.
719
00:17:39.609 --> 00:17:41.469
I hope you will spread the word
720
00:17:41.609 --> 00:17:44.449
to stay away from all screwworm flat.
721
00:17:44.560 --> 00:17:44.810
Look at that,
722
00:17:44.890 --> 00:17:46.089
it's got a screw on the bottom.
723
00:17:46.250 --> 00:17:47.390
That's not really the scale.
724
00:17:47.520 --> 00:17:47.869
But
725
00:17:48.250 --> 00:17:49.349
think of it that way.
726
00:17:49.969 --> 00:17:53.589
You want that thing just screwing itself into your arm or something,
727
00:17:53.849 --> 00:17:54.930
laying eggs.
728
00:17:55.680 --> 00:17:56.430
You want that?
729
00:17:57.339 --> 00:17:58.199
I hope not
730
00:17:58.810 --> 00:17:58.819
Because
731
00:17:59.089 --> 00:17:59.989
it's not pretty
732
00:18:00.869 --> 00:18:03.089
And it will result in terrible things happening
733
00:18:03.469 --> 00:18:05.069
to my prediction market account.
734
00:18:05.959 --> 00:18:08.729
Which is a totally secondary interest for me because I am,
735
00:18:08.810 --> 00:18:09.520
as you know,
736
00:18:09.930 --> 00:18:12.150
America's number one advocate for screwworm awareness.
737
00:18:13.050 --> 00:18:14.930
We do have other things to,
738
00:18:15.410 --> 00:18:16.550
to talk about today.
739
00:18:16.849 --> 00:18:18.410
You'll be surprised to hear.
740
00:18:18.849 --> 00:18:19.660
And uh
741
00:18:19.969 --> 00:18:21.400
we'll do those here in a second.
742
00:18:21.729 --> 00:18:23.209
You could join us at predictableShow.com.
743
00:18:23.250 --> 00:18:23.780
I will say,
744
00:18:23.810 --> 00:18:24.750
if you were at
745
00:18:24.969 --> 00:18:26.689
uh predictableShow.com and a premium subscriber,
746
00:18:26.770 --> 00:18:27.569
you get all my picks.
747
00:18:27.640 --> 00:18:29.270
There's over 200 of them on there
748
00:18:29.410 --> 00:18:31.670
in very random markets sometimes like
749
00:18:32.390 --> 00:18:33.569
Screwworm awareness,
750
00:18:33.859 --> 00:18:36.099
you would have seen the screwworm pick up there and you would have been like,
751
00:18:36.140 --> 00:18:38.339
I already know about the screw worm uh potential
752
00:18:38.339 --> 00:18:40.500
epidemic and that's why I'm taking the steps I,
753
00:18:40.699 --> 00:18:42.800
you wanna talk about a reason for a border wall?
754
00:18:44.459 --> 00:18:45.829
Stopping the screw worm
755
00:18:46.150 --> 00:18:47.290
from coming across.
756
00:18:47.869 --> 00:18:48.189
OK,
757
00:18:48.390 --> 00:18:50.449
no screw worms in this country.
758
00:18:51.910 --> 00:18:52.449
OK.
759
00:18:52.780 --> 00:18:53.709
PredictableShow.com,
760
00:18:53.829 --> 00:18:54.569
join us there.
761
00:18:54.910 --> 00:18:57.390
We get into something maybe a little bit more
762
00:18:57.670 --> 00:18:58.750
in the news cycle.
763
00:18:59.510 --> 00:18:59.670
Uh,
764
00:18:59.780 --> 00:19:00.170
although,
765
00:19:00.430 --> 00:19:00.550
again,
766
00:19:00.630 --> 00:19:01.030
this is,
767
00:19:01.140 --> 00:19:02.030
this is going on right now,
768
00:19:02.069 --> 00:19:02.650
I wanna be clear,
769
00:19:02.949 --> 00:19:03.510
but we'll get into,
770
00:19:03.550 --> 00:19:03.770
uh,
771
00:19:03.780 --> 00:19:04.989
something a little bit more related to,
772
00:19:05.030 --> 00:19:05.530
uh,
773
00:19:05.630 --> 00:19:07.849
elections and prediction markets and the future of them.
774
00:19:08.550 --> 00:19:10.010
Is there a future for them?
775
00:19:10.390 --> 00:19:12.890
Is the Trump administration turning on them?
776
00:19:13.189 --> 00:19:14.550
We'll get into that with Stephen Kent
777
00:19:14.750 --> 00:19:15.069
next.
778
00:19:29.310 --> 00:19:29.910
Welcome back.
779
00:19:30.020 --> 00:19:30.189
Uh,
780
00:19:30.270 --> 00:19:30.359
I,
781
00:19:30.430 --> 00:19:31.050
I wanna bring in,
782
00:19:31.060 --> 00:19:31.219
uh,
783
00:19:31.229 --> 00:19:31.829
Stephen Kent.
784
00:19:32.119 --> 00:19:33.770
He is the media director for a great,
785
00:19:33.859 --> 00:19:34.160
uh,
786
00:19:34.420 --> 00:19:34.459
organization,
787
00:19:34.550 --> 00:19:35.979
the Consumer Choice Center,
788
00:19:36.310 --> 00:19:40.869
and I think one of 4 people left in Washington DC that actually care about markets,
789
00:19:41.150 --> 00:19:41.410
um,
790
00:19:41.750 --> 00:19:42.770
and economic freedom.
791
00:19:42.949 --> 00:19:43.020
Uh,
792
00:19:43.109 --> 00:19:43.349
Stephen,
793
00:19:43.420 --> 00:19:44.510
thanks so much for coming back on the program.
794
00:19:44.589 --> 00:19:44.949
Appreciate it.
795
00:19:45.030 --> 00:19:45.510
Great to see you.
796
00:19:46.439 --> 00:19:47.300
Nice to be here with you.
797
00:19:47.349 --> 00:19:47.589
You know,
798
00:19:47.670 --> 00:19:49.880
is this my first time on Predictable?
799
00:19:49.989 --> 00:19:50.589
It is,
800
00:19:50.709 --> 00:19:50.869
uh,
801
00:19:50.949 --> 00:19:51.930
congratulations.
802
00:19:52.030 --> 00:19:52.219
Uh,
803
00:19:52.290 --> 00:19:52.390
yeah,
804
00:19:52.510 --> 00:19:53.349
your first time.
805
00:19:53.630 --> 00:19:53.829
You were on,
806
00:19:53.890 --> 00:19:54.069
of course,
807
00:19:54.270 --> 00:19:55.869
Studios America back in the day,
808
00:19:56.030 --> 00:19:58.150
been on with me and Glenn back in the day,
809
00:19:58.250 --> 00:19:59.770
but first time on Predictable,
810
00:20:00.390 --> 00:20:00.989
really happy you're,
811
00:20:01.020 --> 00:20:01.869
you're able to join us.
812
00:20:02.989 --> 00:20:03.189
Yeah,
813
00:20:03.300 --> 00:20:04.020
really nice to be here.
814
00:20:04.109 --> 00:20:05.280
This has been an awesome show.
815
00:20:05.430 --> 00:20:07.670
Me and my colleagues at the Consumer Choice Center,
816
00:20:07.989 --> 00:20:08.300
uh,
817
00:20:08.310 --> 00:20:09.469
watch this show
818
00:20:09.630 --> 00:20:11.010
at least a couple of times a week.
819
00:20:11.150 --> 00:20:11.270
So,
820
00:20:11.349 --> 00:20:11.609
uh,
821
00:20:11.630 --> 00:20:12.449
keep up the good work.
822
00:20:12.589 --> 00:20:12.750
Oh,
823
00:20:12.869 --> 00:20:13.189
awesome,
824
00:20:13.270 --> 00:20:13.540
awesome.
825
00:20:13.579 --> 00:20:13.869
It's a great,
826
00:20:14.069 --> 00:20:14.349
great group.
827
00:20:14.430 --> 00:20:15.489
You guys do great work over there.
828
00:20:15.589 --> 00:20:15.969
Um,
829
00:20:16.270 --> 00:20:18.469
I wanna talk to you a little bit about Prediction Mark because I kind of like the,
830
00:20:18.550 --> 00:20:19.369
the landscape,
831
00:20:19.510 --> 00:20:19.660
uh,
832
00:20:19.869 --> 00:20:20.130
because,
833
00:20:20.150 --> 00:20:20.260
uh,
834
00:20:20.310 --> 00:20:20.420
we,
835
00:20:20.489 --> 00:20:20.589
we,
836
00:20:20.660 --> 00:20:21.670
we discussed this a little bit.
837
00:20:21.750 --> 00:20:23.209
I saw you in DC a few months ago
838
00:20:23.709 --> 00:20:23.829
and,
839
00:20:23.910 --> 00:20:26.030
and spent a good amount of time thinking about this and,
840
00:20:26.109 --> 00:20:26.910
and talking about it,
841
00:20:26.949 --> 00:20:27.650
and it is.
842
00:20:28.410 --> 00:20:28.650
It,
843
00:20:28.729 --> 00:20:31.229
it's an interesting time because this is obviously a,
844
00:20:31.290 --> 00:20:31.650
um,
845
00:20:31.760 --> 00:20:33.449
a major financial innovation.
846
00:20:33.609 --> 00:20:35.329
Most people were not in prediction markets,
847
00:20:35.449 --> 00:20:37.859
never considered them before the last couple of years,
848
00:20:38.130 --> 00:20:39.670
and now they're really coming on the scene.
849
00:20:40.010 --> 00:20:40.390
Um,
850
00:20:40.650 --> 00:20:41.089
so far,
851
00:20:41.170 --> 00:20:42.270
the Trump administration,
852
00:20:42.689 --> 00:20:42.839
uh,
853
00:20:42.930 --> 00:20:44.410
Michael Selli at the CFTC,
854
00:20:44.569 --> 00:20:44.900
have been,
855
00:20:45.010 --> 00:20:45.199
uh,
856
00:20:45.209 --> 00:20:46.680
frankly great on this issue,
857
00:20:46.750 --> 00:20:47.089
uh,
858
00:20:47.410 --> 00:20:50.729
really welcoming the financial innovation and trying to structure this
859
00:20:50.729 --> 00:20:52.969
in a way that not only protects consumers but also,
860
00:20:53.290 --> 00:20:53.599
uh,
861
00:20:53.609 --> 00:20:54.349
allows
862
00:20:54.489 --> 00:20:57.069
kind of new branches to grow in our economy.
863
00:20:57.130 --> 00:20:58.239
I think that's a real positive.
864
00:20:58.739 --> 00:21:00.209
There is a story in The Hill today,
865
00:21:00.300 --> 00:21:00.619
uh,
866
00:21:00.630 --> 00:21:01.020
about,
867
00:21:01.109 --> 00:21:01.359
uh,
868
00:21:01.390 --> 00:21:02.020
prediction markets,
869
00:21:02.349 --> 00:21:02.500
uh,
870
00:21:02.589 --> 00:21:04.530
prediction markets shut out of Trump's meeting
871
00:21:04.949 --> 00:21:06.349
with tech executives.
872
00:21:06.829 --> 00:21:06.989
I mean,
873
00:21:07.030 --> 00:21:09.150
the way it's presented here is kind of like,
874
00:21:09.229 --> 00:21:09.390
well,
875
00:21:09.469 --> 00:21:10.150
it was a slight,
876
00:21:10.380 --> 00:21:10.910
they went with the,
877
00:21:10.949 --> 00:21:11.900
the crypto side and,
878
00:21:11.930 --> 00:21:12.060
and,
879
00:21:12.109 --> 00:21:12.260
and,
880
00:21:12.310 --> 00:21:12.489
and,
881
00:21:12.579 --> 00:21:14.270
and was a slight to prediction markets.
882
00:21:14.349 --> 00:21:15.989
Is there any evidence that the Trump
883
00:21:15.989 --> 00:21:17.329
administration's changing their mind on this stuff?
884
00:21:18.680 --> 00:21:18.819
Well,
885
00:21:18.890 --> 00:21:19.270
you know,
886
00:21:19.680 --> 00:21:21.000
Donald Trump himself,
887
00:21:21.119 --> 00:21:22.140
even though he is,
888
00:21:22.319 --> 00:21:24.579
he is the epitome of a Las Vegas
889
00:21:25.050 --> 00:21:25.520
Republican,
890
00:21:25.750 --> 00:21:25.910
er,
891
00:21:25.920 --> 00:21:29.260
and he is generally open and friendly to
892
00:21:29.459 --> 00:21:31.040
traditional gambling,
893
00:21:31.119 --> 00:21:34.400
he's interested in crypto as an investment asset.
894
00:21:34.819 --> 00:21:35.109
Um,
895
00:21:35.199 --> 00:21:35.510
he's a,
896
00:21:35.589 --> 00:21:36.050
he's a,
897
00:21:36.180 --> 00:21:37.750
a gonzo Republican,
898
00:21:37.869 --> 00:21:39.680
but when it comes to prediction markets,
899
00:21:39.829 --> 00:21:43.890
he himself has been a little hot and cold on the issue.
900
00:21:44.270 --> 00:21:45.810
I can't remember the exact quote,
901
00:21:45.910 --> 00:21:48.209
but it was sometime in the last year
902
00:21:48.390 --> 00:21:52.349
where he expressed reticence about Calci and polymarket,
903
00:21:52.760 --> 00:21:52.939
uh,
904
00:21:53.060 --> 00:21:56.489
and sort of what he called the casinoizing of everything.
905
00:21:56.839 --> 00:21:56.959
Uh,
906
00:21:57.040 --> 00:22:00.500
now this is of course not a viewpoint that that I agree with,
907
00:22:00.790 --> 00:22:00.989
um,
908
00:22:01.079 --> 00:22:03.979
but this might be an area where he is divided,
909
00:22:04.319 --> 00:22:04.469
uh,
910
00:22:04.589 --> 00:22:05.719
with his sons,
911
00:22:05.780 --> 00:22:06.660
Don Junior
912
00:22:06.880 --> 00:22:07.760
and Eric Trump,
913
00:22:07.859 --> 00:22:08.260
who
914
00:22:08.619 --> 00:22:13.099
are both involved in different prediction markets and companies
915
00:22:13.400 --> 00:22:14.739
and interested in them.
916
00:22:15.160 --> 00:22:16.910
As forms of investment tools.
917
00:22:17.280 --> 00:22:17.719
So this,
918
00:22:17.800 --> 00:22:20.459
this is an area of disagreement within this administration,
919
00:22:20.560 --> 00:22:23.449
but Mike Selig is running away at the CFTC and,
920
00:22:23.479 --> 00:22:24.579
and doing great work.
921
00:22:24.959 --> 00:22:25.040
Yeah,
922
00:22:25.079 --> 00:22:26.500
it's interesting because I think,
923
00:22:27.199 --> 00:22:27.829
cause I think you're right,
924
00:22:27.880 --> 00:22:28.329
he has,
925
00:22:28.479 --> 00:22:30.750
he has mentioned this and been a little bit hesitant.
926
00:22:30.790 --> 00:22:32.060
He said a couple of the,
927
00:22:32.729 --> 00:22:34.069
What I would call kind of like
928
00:22:34.569 --> 00:22:37.160
catchphrases of the opposition to prediction markets,
929
00:22:37.209 --> 00:22:38.920
the casinoization of America is just,
930
00:22:38.969 --> 00:22:40.239
it drives me absolutely insane,
931
00:22:40.250 --> 00:22:43.640
as if we aren't calculating risk on a day to day basis with everything we do,
932
00:22:43.810 --> 00:22:46.469
including driving our cars and picking a restaurant and
933
00:22:46.650 --> 00:22:47.790
100 different other things.
934
00:22:48.050 --> 00:22:48.329
Um,
935
00:22:48.530 --> 00:22:48.910
but
936
00:22:49.449 --> 00:22:51.040
one of the things about this in particular,
937
00:22:51.050 --> 00:22:53.030
which is interesting is the way Trump thinks,
938
00:22:53.040 --> 00:22:53.410
and I think,
939
00:22:53.569 --> 00:22:53.729
you know,
940
00:22:53.969 --> 00:22:54.089
look,
941
00:22:54.209 --> 00:22:55.839
we all know Trump is a unique guy.
942
00:22:55.890 --> 00:22:58.800
He does things differently than almost everybody else has ever been in,
943
00:22:58.849 --> 00:22:59.660
in politics.
944
00:23:00.140 --> 00:23:03.050
And I think that what what Trump does that's different
945
00:23:03.199 --> 00:23:04.829
than a lot of politicians or maybe you and I,
946
00:23:04.989 --> 00:23:05.300
Steven,
947
00:23:05.550 --> 00:23:07.569
like when I have an issue and I'm thinking about it,
948
00:23:07.930 --> 00:23:08.949
it pops in my head.
949
00:23:09.030 --> 00:23:09.709
I consider it,
950
00:23:09.790 --> 00:23:11.020
maybe I read a little bit about it,
951
00:23:11.109 --> 00:23:11.790
maybe I go back,
952
00:23:11.869 --> 00:23:13.750
maybe I talk to people that I trust and think,
953
00:23:13.829 --> 00:23:14.209
you know,
954
00:23:14.479 --> 00:23:14.790
uh,
955
00:23:15.189 --> 00:23:16.589
maybe people who I think are smart,
956
00:23:16.670 --> 00:23:17.709
I run it by them.
957
00:23:18.030 --> 00:23:18.140
I,
958
00:23:18.329 --> 00:23:19.550
I come through all the arguments.
959
00:23:19.589 --> 00:23:21.150
I try to eventually come to a decision.
960
00:23:21.670 --> 00:23:24.270
Trump tends to do a lot of that stuff publicly.
961
00:23:24.680 --> 00:23:25.359
Like he,
962
00:23:25.609 --> 00:23:29.130
his first thought might have been casino casinoization of America.
963
00:23:29.369 --> 00:23:31.849
That doesn't mean necessarily that's what he wants as a,
964
00:23:31.900 --> 00:23:32.280
um,
965
00:23:32.410 --> 00:23:32.770
as a,
966
00:23:32.810 --> 00:23:33.969
a policy proposal.
967
00:23:34.050 --> 00:23:35.290
He doesn't certainly,
968
00:23:35.650 --> 00:23:36.030
look,
969
00:23:36.709 --> 00:23:38.109
Michael Selli's a really smart guy.
970
00:23:38.219 --> 00:23:38.489
Um,
971
00:23:38.569 --> 00:23:41.170
he's in that position because Donald Trump wanted him in that position.
972
00:23:41.430 --> 00:23:41.869
Um,
973
00:23:41.939 --> 00:23:42.369
and,
974
00:23:42.420 --> 00:23:42.670
uh,
975
00:23:42.819 --> 00:23:42.979
you know,
976
00:23:43.280 --> 00:23:43.660
I frankly,
977
00:23:43.739 --> 00:23:44.459
when I look at it,
978
00:23:44.569 --> 00:23:45.280
I think
979
00:23:45.589 --> 00:23:46.119
he is
980
00:23:46.540 --> 00:23:48.300
generally speaking open to these things.
981
00:23:48.380 --> 00:23:50.239
Obviously his sons are as well.
982
00:23:50.770 --> 00:23:50.780
Um,
983
00:23:50.800 --> 00:23:50.810
I,
984
00:23:50.939 --> 00:23:53.939
I just wonder if maybe some of that early stuff was more of
985
00:23:53.939 --> 00:23:58.380
him thinking through the process and coming to a more concrete conclusion.
986
00:23:58.449 --> 00:23:59.130
Does that make any sense?
987
00:23:59.260 --> 00:23:59.430
No,
988
00:23:59.500 --> 00:24:00.084
I I,
989
00:24:00.165 --> 00:24:01.724
I think that that's absolutely fair,
990
00:24:01.765 --> 00:24:03.185
and I think the story in The Hill,
991
00:24:03.484 --> 00:24:04.405
again you mentioned it's,
992
00:24:04.484 --> 00:24:05.864
it's framing is a little curious,
993
00:24:05.925 --> 00:24:06.084
you know,
994
00:24:06.165 --> 00:24:08.035
as if that they were snubbed,
995
00:24:08.324 --> 00:24:10.864
and perhaps it might have just been simplifying,
996
00:24:10.925 --> 00:24:11.234
uh,
997
00:24:11.244 --> 00:24:13.665
the scope of the meeting to just focus
998
00:24:13.954 --> 00:24:15.224
on cryptocurrencies,
999
00:24:15.484 --> 00:24:18.344
particularly like as a national security and financial asset.
1000
00:24:18.645 --> 00:24:18.925
You know,
1001
00:24:19.364 --> 00:24:21.494
there was an early report that said prediction
1002
00:24:21.494 --> 00:24:23.305
market companies were going to be present.
1003
00:24:23.859 --> 00:24:24.869
In this room,
1004
00:24:25.109 --> 00:24:25.300
uh,
1005
00:24:25.390 --> 00:24:28.130
both from a technology and a finance perspective,
1006
00:24:28.709 --> 00:24:31.810
and then they backtracked that and and didn't end up bringing them in.
1007
00:24:32.069 --> 00:24:32.229
I,
1008
00:24:32.270 --> 00:24:35.910
I really don't think it says anything in particular about this administration
1009
00:24:35.910 --> 00:24:39.290
besides that it just might have been a miscommunication behind the scenes,
1010
00:24:39.640 --> 00:24:39.829
um,
1011
00:24:39.949 --> 00:24:40.270
but you know,
1012
00:24:40.310 --> 00:24:40.540
the,
1013
00:24:40.670 --> 00:24:42.650
the march against
1014
00:24:43.079 --> 00:24:43.780
prediction markets,
1015
00:24:43.790 --> 00:24:45.969
and I don't want to get ahead of you in the segment here,
1016
00:24:46.510 --> 00:24:46.670
um,
1017
00:24:46.750 --> 00:24:46.869
you know,
1018
00:24:46.910 --> 00:24:47.150
it's,
1019
00:24:47.189 --> 00:24:49.229
it's just a constant onslaught.
1020
00:24:49.589 --> 00:24:50.670
There's a story in,
1021
00:24:50.750 --> 00:24:51.849
in Bloomberg.
1022
00:24:52.180 --> 00:24:52.390
Uh,
1023
00:24:52.520 --> 00:24:53.709
just yesterday,
1024
00:24:54.109 --> 00:24:54.380
um,
1025
00:24:54.550 --> 00:24:55.109
looking at,
1026
00:24:55.229 --> 00:24:55.390
you know,
1027
00:24:55.510 --> 00:24:58.099
prediction markets and their susceptibility,
1028
00:24:58.390 --> 00:24:58.550
you know,
1029
00:24:58.790 --> 00:25:02.780
supposedly to fake polls that get put out there into the ether,
1030
00:25:03.119 --> 00:25:05.349
and you mentioned Donald Trump as being a guy who just
1031
00:25:05.349 --> 00:25:07.979
sort of does gut checks and vibe checks on the news.
1032
00:25:08.310 --> 00:25:08.390
Well,
1033
00:25:08.430 --> 00:25:08.589
you know,
1034
00:25:08.670 --> 00:25:11.469
you sort of have a similar problem going on here,
1035
00:25:11.550 --> 00:25:12.989
which is an allegation.
1036
00:25:13.229 --> 00:25:17.010
That you can just flood the internet with fake polls about
1037
00:25:17.229 --> 00:25:18.609
the mayor's race
1038
00:25:18.829 --> 00:25:20.550
in Los Angeles,
1039
00:25:20.750 --> 00:25:23.930
and then make money moving the polls,
1040
00:25:24.180 --> 00:25:24.540
um,
1041
00:25:24.670 --> 00:25:26.369
and moving prediction markets.
1042
00:25:26.630 --> 00:25:27.910
I think this is actually bunk.
1043
00:25:28.030 --> 00:25:29.709
I don't know if you got a chance to see that story,
1044
00:25:29.829 --> 00:25:30.150
but it's,
1045
00:25:30.189 --> 00:25:31.530
it's not very strong.
1046
00:25:31.790 --> 00:25:31.949
Yeah,
1047
00:25:32.069 --> 00:25:32.260
it's,
1048
00:25:32.310 --> 00:25:32.630
it's,
1049
00:25:32.780 --> 00:25:33.060
first of all,
1050
00:25:33.099 --> 00:25:33.750
it's really interesting.
1051
00:25:33.859 --> 00:25:37.189
There was actually a story about a fake poll that came
1052
00:25:37.189 --> 00:25:40.060
out uh recently and it was in the uh Milwaukee,
1053
00:25:40.150 --> 00:25:40.630
or excuse me,
1054
00:25:40.869 --> 00:25:41.369
Wisconsin.
1055
00:25:41.900 --> 00:25:42.420
Uh,
1056
00:25:42.430 --> 00:25:43.050
statewide
1057
00:25:43.670 --> 00:25:44.869
election with Francesca Hong,
1058
00:25:44.920 --> 00:25:46.630
and it had her up by 20 points.
1059
00:25:46.949 --> 00:25:48.959
There was a question at one point where
1060
00:25:49.630 --> 00:25:50.930
they went to,
1061
00:25:50.969 --> 00:25:51.420
uh,
1062
00:25:51.790 --> 00:25:53.170
to the pollster afterward
1063
00:25:53.469 --> 00:25:53.790
and said,
1064
00:25:53.910 --> 00:25:54.030
hey,
1065
00:25:54.150 --> 00:25:54.750
like what's your,
1066
00:25:54.910 --> 00:25:56.030
what's your process for this?
1067
00:25:56.150 --> 00:25:56.439
You got,
1068
00:25:56.550 --> 00:25:58.410
you had her up by 20 points and she lost,
1069
00:25:58.790 --> 00:25:59.099
and,
1070
00:25:59.250 --> 00:25:59.670
and they,
1071
00:25:59.790 --> 00:26:01.069
their response was basically like,
1072
00:26:01.229 --> 00:26:01.589
oh yeah,
1073
00:26:01.709 --> 00:26:03.260
we're not really a pollster.
1074
00:26:03.469 --> 00:26:05.650
This is just an experiment to see what would happen.
1075
00:26:05.859 --> 00:26:06.140
First of all,
1076
00:26:06.170 --> 00:26:07.689
I am fascinated to see
1077
00:26:08.109 --> 00:26:09.109
who was behind that.
1078
00:26:09.189 --> 00:26:10.069
We've probably learned that.
1079
00:26:10.390 --> 00:26:13.719
But there were legitimate pollsters in the state that had very similar numbers.
1080
00:26:13.780 --> 00:26:15.390
It wasn't like they were the only outlier.
1081
00:26:15.839 --> 00:26:18.079
There's a little bit of this with this fishback campaign thing
1082
00:26:18.079 --> 00:26:21.060
as well where an internal poll was kind of mislabeled,
1083
00:26:21.319 --> 00:26:21.880
um,
1084
00:26:22.280 --> 00:26:22.599
look.
1085
00:26:23.739 --> 00:26:25.050
The information diet we have,
1086
00:26:25.099 --> 00:26:25.689
we can't,
1087
00:26:25.780 --> 00:26:27.140
we live in a society,
1088
00:26:27.250 --> 00:26:27.369
uh,
1089
00:26:27.540 --> 00:26:27.729
Steven,
1090
00:26:27.900 --> 00:26:31.199
especially in the internet era where there's gonna be a lot of information
1091
00:26:31.459 --> 00:26:33.380
that is true and a lot of it that isn't.
1092
00:26:33.520 --> 00:26:33.920
And
1093
00:26:34.380 --> 00:26:37.780
part of understanding prediction markets and understanding the
1094
00:26:37.780 --> 00:26:40.099
news is trying to sort through that.
1095
00:26:40.260 --> 00:26:40.380
Uh,
1096
00:26:40.459 --> 00:26:41.540
that is what that is.
1097
00:26:41.619 --> 00:26:41.780
We,
1098
00:26:42.099 --> 00:26:44.739
we can all complain about this and say that it's,
1099
00:26:44.770 --> 00:26:45.010
uh,
1100
00:26:45.060 --> 00:26:45.660
a terrible thing,
1101
00:26:45.739 --> 00:26:47.060
but like when you look at these pollsters,
1102
00:26:47.180 --> 00:26:48.099
they were unreliable,
1103
00:26:48.170 --> 00:26:49.089
they were brand new.
1104
00:26:49.140 --> 00:26:50.459
No one had ever heard of them before.
1105
00:26:50.660 --> 00:26:51.099
If that was,
1106
00:26:51.290 --> 00:26:51.959
isn't it
1107
00:26:52.099 --> 00:26:52.920
up to us?
1108
00:26:53.310 --> 00:26:55.790
I hate to bring up personal responsibility in this country these days,
1109
00:26:55.949 --> 00:26:56.109
Steven,
1110
00:26:56.160 --> 00:26:56.420
but like,
1111
00:26:56.430 --> 00:26:58.030
isn't that up to us to try to determine
1112
00:26:58.030 --> 00:26:59.949
these things and hopefully get the right answer?
1113
00:27:00.310 --> 00:27:03.910
That is so old fashioned of you to cite personal responsibility,
1114
00:27:04.150 --> 00:27:04.430
but you know,
1115
00:27:04.469 --> 00:27:04.699
that's,
1116
00:27:04.739 --> 00:27:05.849
that's exactly it,
1117
00:27:05.910 --> 00:27:07.699
and this is a thing that Americans,
1118
00:27:07.829 --> 00:27:09.489
I think really all consumers everywhere
1119
00:27:09.489 --> 00:27:11.510
don't generally understand about political polls,
1120
00:27:11.589 --> 00:27:11.790
but just.
1121
00:27:12.074 --> 00:27:13.494
Because you see a poll,
1122
00:27:13.755 --> 00:27:13.944
uh,
1123
00:27:13.954 --> 00:27:15.895
that says your guy is up,
1124
00:27:16.114 --> 00:27:18.574
you should really talk to your friends
1125
00:27:18.755 --> 00:27:21.114
and get a vibe check in your community and go,
1126
00:27:21.395 --> 00:27:25.755
is this what I feel in my community about this race?
1127
00:27:26.074 --> 00:27:26.385
You know,
1128
00:27:26.555 --> 00:27:30.474
something that was so off about Francesca Hong in Wisconsin.
1129
00:27:30.790 --> 00:27:30.959
Uh,
1130
00:27:31.040 --> 00:27:31.810
where she was,
1131
00:27:31.829 --> 00:27:32.030
uh,
1132
00:27:32.040 --> 00:27:34.660
just assumed to be the dominant winner
1133
00:27:34.959 --> 00:27:35.969
in the,
1134
00:27:36.130 --> 00:27:36.349
uh,
1135
00:27:36.420 --> 00:27:37.310
in the governor's,
1136
00:27:37.319 --> 00:27:37.709
uh,
1137
00:27:37.780 --> 00:27:38.359
race,
1138
00:27:38.680 --> 00:27:39.219
was that,
1139
00:27:39.400 --> 00:27:39.560
you know,
1140
00:27:39.719 --> 00:27:41.589
she was going to be a shoo-in because
1141
00:27:41.589 --> 00:27:44.540
democratic socialists are rising all across the country.
1142
00:27:44.859 --> 00:27:48.329
And she was getting all this coverage from the legacy media,
1143
00:27:48.489 --> 00:27:51.750
CNN and MSNBC and whatever circle of hell
1144
00:27:52.130 --> 00:27:53.680
Joy Reid is currently in these days.
1145
00:27:54.650 --> 00:27:54.910
Um,
1146
00:27:55.010 --> 00:27:55.609
but look,
1147
00:27:55.770 --> 00:27:55.880
you,
1148
00:27:55.969 --> 00:27:57.770
you actually have to then pause,
1149
00:27:57.810 --> 00:27:58.089
you go,
1150
00:27:58.170 --> 00:27:58.369
OK,
1151
00:27:58.449 --> 00:28:02.270
there's all this media energy because they want a leftist
1152
00:28:02.449 --> 00:28:03.310
to get this seat.
1153
00:28:03.829 --> 00:28:05.770
Who is currently the governor
1154
00:28:05.979 --> 00:28:07.089
of Wisconsin?
1155
00:28:07.469 --> 00:28:08.229
Tony Evers.
1156
00:28:08.310 --> 00:28:09.349
He's been in the seat
1157
00:28:09.630 --> 00:28:10.910
since 2019.
1158
00:28:11.030 --> 00:28:15.489
He's considered one of the most boring governors in all of America.
1159
00:28:15.819 --> 00:28:18.250
And so you should be asking yourself as a person
1160
00:28:18.670 --> 00:28:22.430
watching this race and moving money in through prediction markets and going,
1161
00:28:22.920 --> 00:28:27.689
Why would Wisconsin Democrats elevate the most boring man in America
1162
00:28:27.869 --> 00:28:29.910
and then immediately switch
1163
00:28:30.189 --> 00:28:33.050
to the most incendiary woman
1164
00:28:33.170 --> 00:28:36.150
that has ever been seen from the Democratic socialist
1165
00:28:36.270 --> 00:28:36.900
ranks?
1166
00:28:37.180 --> 00:28:37.890
Is this,
1167
00:28:38.109 --> 00:28:40.750
does this feel like a good connection?
1168
00:28:41.079 --> 00:28:41.500
Uh,
1169
00:28:41.839 --> 00:28:42.349
between the,
1170
00:28:42.520 --> 00:28:45.930
what has been the past precedent and what's happening right now in the media,
1171
00:28:46.119 --> 00:28:48.439
and there's no consequences for bad media coverage,
1172
00:28:48.550 --> 00:28:50.109
but there are consequences,
1173
00:28:50.400 --> 00:28:50.560
uh,
1174
00:28:50.599 --> 00:28:52.140
for when markets get things wrong.
1175
00:28:52.560 --> 00:28:52.660
Yeah,
1176
00:28:52.719 --> 00:28:53.400
it's funny because I,
1177
00:28:53.680 --> 00:28:55.619
we talked about this a little bit on the air at the time,
1178
00:28:55.869 --> 00:28:56.699
and that I thought,
1179
00:28:56.719 --> 00:28:56.839
I,
1180
00:28:56.920 --> 00:29:00.020
I did have a belief that she would underperform a 20 point
1181
00:29:00.319 --> 00:29:00.479
lead.
1182
00:29:00.520 --> 00:29:02.040
I had no position on her with this,
1183
00:29:02.119 --> 00:29:02.280
you know,
1184
00:29:02.479 --> 00:29:03.400
one of the margin markets,
1185
00:29:03.550 --> 00:29:03.640
uh,
1186
00:29:03.760 --> 00:29:03.880
sorry,
1187
00:29:03.959 --> 00:29:04.199
my,
1188
00:29:04.349 --> 00:29:04.920
my eyes,
1189
00:29:05.000 --> 00:29:05.760
I have these allergies,
1190
00:29:05.839 --> 00:29:07.069
my eyes are watering like crazy,
1191
00:29:07.239 --> 00:29:07.400
Steven,
1192
00:29:07.510 --> 00:29:07.640
oh,
1193
00:29:07.839 --> 00:29:08.979
drive me nuts,
1194
00:29:09.310 --> 00:29:09.599
um.
1195
00:29:09.989 --> 00:29:10.270
Uh,
1196
00:29:10.469 --> 00:29:10.589
so,
1197
00:29:10.750 --> 00:29:11.030
but I,
1198
00:29:11.109 --> 00:29:12.790
I thought she would underperform 20 points.
1199
00:29:12.949 --> 00:29:15.619
I still thought there was enough room there for her to hold it,
1200
00:29:15.790 --> 00:29:16.930
but you make up a great point,
1201
00:29:17.339 --> 00:29:17.469
uh,
1202
00:29:17.589 --> 00:29:17.709
here,
1203
00:29:17.790 --> 00:29:18.069
and I,
1204
00:29:18.150 --> 00:29:19.500
I've come to the place now,
1205
00:29:19.589 --> 00:29:19.829
uh,
1206
00:29:19.949 --> 00:29:20.199
in,
1207
00:29:20.290 --> 00:29:20.900
in Wisconsin.
1208
00:29:20.949 --> 00:29:23.349
I'm never listening to another poll in Wisconsin.
1209
00:29:23.630 --> 00:29:23.780
I,
1210
00:29:23.859 --> 00:29:25.310
it's going back to 2016.
1211
00:29:25.390 --> 00:29:26.630
Every single one of them
1212
00:29:26.829 --> 00:29:27.310
has been off,
1213
00:29:27.369 --> 00:29:28.420
even when they were right,
1214
00:29:28.510 --> 00:29:28.630
you know,
1215
00:29:28.709 --> 00:29:29.280
and it wound up,
1216
00:29:29.290 --> 00:29:29.609
uh,
1217
00:29:29.630 --> 00:29:30.589
successfully predicting the,
1218
00:29:30.670 --> 00:29:32.609
the Biden win in 2020.
1219
00:29:33.150 --> 00:29:35.910
Still missed by 7 or 8 points in that election.
1220
00:29:35.949 --> 00:29:36.099
I mean,
1221
00:29:36.109 --> 00:29:36.530
it's the,
1222
00:29:36.599 --> 00:29:38.390
the polling in that state in particular,
1223
00:29:38.459 --> 00:29:41.170
in that region in particular has been terrible for a while,
1224
00:29:41.709 --> 00:29:41.989
and I,
1225
00:29:42.060 --> 00:29:42.189
you know,
1226
00:29:42.229 --> 00:29:43.229
I kind of blame myself for that,
1227
00:29:43.270 --> 00:29:43.660
but that,
1228
00:29:43.829 --> 00:29:43.910
again,
1229
00:29:43.989 --> 00:29:44.229
that's,
1230
00:29:44.270 --> 00:29:45.750
I guess personal responsibility.
1231
00:29:45.979 --> 00:29:47.589
And that's an opportunity for traders,
1232
00:29:47.630 --> 00:29:49.650
like that is an opportunity for traders
1233
00:29:49.869 --> 00:29:50.069
to,
1234
00:29:50.150 --> 00:29:51.540
the more that you know,
1235
00:29:51.750 --> 00:29:57.030
when you see bad information out there or information that just isn't quite right.
1236
00:29:57.280 --> 00:29:59.719
That is an opportunity for you to say,
1237
00:30:00.160 --> 00:30:00.319
no,
1238
00:30:00.439 --> 00:30:03.310
I've got better information and I'm going to put
1239
00:30:03.839 --> 00:30:05.359
money in this direction,
1240
00:30:05.560 --> 00:30:07.359
and that is how a market
1241
00:30:07.890 --> 00:30:09.640
eventually brings us closer to truth.
1242
00:30:09.760 --> 00:30:14.199
Now of course there are instances where people are just flat out wrong,
1243
00:30:14.359 --> 00:30:17.000
prediction markets are not prophecies.
1244
00:30:17.479 --> 00:30:18.800
I can't remember what the race was,
1245
00:30:18.880 --> 00:30:20.140
I think it was in Georgia,
1246
00:30:20.160 --> 00:30:20.469
uh,
1247
00:30:20.479 --> 00:30:20.680
just,
1248
00:30:20.800 --> 00:30:21.760
just the other day.
1249
00:30:22.189 --> 00:30:22.349
Uh,
1250
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:26.020
with another Democratic socialist candidate who ended up sweeping their race,
1251
00:30:26.199 --> 00:30:26.760
and you know,
1252
00:30:27.000 --> 00:30:30.020
it was the the person who had 20% odds ended up,
1253
00:30:30.319 --> 00:30:31.150
ended up winning.
1254
00:30:31.920 --> 00:30:32.390
But you know,
1255
00:30:32.689 --> 00:30:32.800
yeah,
1256
00:30:32.920 --> 00:30:34.560
these things absolutely happen.
1257
00:30:34.869 --> 00:30:35.390
Um,
1258
00:30:35.670 --> 00:30:39.969
but this Bloomberg story is not able to actually point to any evidence
1259
00:30:40.229 --> 00:30:41.619
of consumer harm,
1260
00:30:41.780 --> 00:30:43.069
people losing money,
1261
00:30:43.390 --> 00:30:46.729
simply the idea that fake polls could be put out there.
1262
00:30:46.989 --> 00:30:49.699
I can put a fake poll on the internet right now,
1263
00:30:49.989 --> 00:30:50.099
uh,
1264
00:30:50.150 --> 00:30:52.979
and fake polls have been popping up in elections,
1265
00:30:53.229 --> 00:30:53.390
you know,
1266
00:30:53.469 --> 00:30:54.670
at least going back to 2.
1267
00:30:54.765 --> 00:30:55.704
In 2012,
1268
00:30:55.984 --> 00:30:57.905
there was an instance where the Daily Kos,
1269
00:30:58.005 --> 00:30:58.614
uh,
1270
00:30:58.655 --> 00:31:00.984
Daily Kos website and blog
1271
00:31:01.145 --> 00:31:04.765
had been circulating a lot of uh totally bunk polls
1272
00:31:05.104 --> 00:31:06.594
regarding Mitt Romney
1273
00:31:06.785 --> 00:31:07.724
and Obama,
1274
00:31:08.025 --> 00:31:08.625
and you know,
1275
00:31:08.785 --> 00:31:10.545
there are again consequences for that.
1276
00:31:10.625 --> 00:31:14.505
The media picked that up and they offer a false perception of where the race is going.
1277
00:31:14.859 --> 00:31:15.380
But again,
1278
00:31:15.589 --> 00:31:17.689
they just sort of sweep that under the rug,
1279
00:31:17.989 --> 00:31:20.270
whereas when you're dealing with prediction markets,
1280
00:31:20.589 --> 00:31:23.910
uh you're dealing with people who actually have an investment
1281
00:31:24.140 --> 00:31:25.150
in being right,
1282
00:31:25.229 --> 00:31:28.170
the information is going to be more high stakes and high quality.
1283
00:31:28.530 --> 00:31:28.660
Yeah,
1284
00:31:28.739 --> 00:31:28.859
and,
1285
00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:29.180
and,
1286
00:31:29.339 --> 00:31:29.660
you know,
1287
00:31:29.869 --> 00:31:29.890
I,
1288
00:31:29.979 --> 00:31:33.939
I don't want to get too into the weeds on nerdy probability talk here,
1289
00:31:34.119 --> 00:31:34.339
Steven,
1290
00:31:34.420 --> 00:31:34.880
but like,
1291
00:31:35.180 --> 00:31:38.040
one of the things about somebody who has a 20% chance to win
1292
00:31:38.459 --> 00:31:40.979
is they're supposed to win 20% of the time.
1293
00:31:41.099 --> 00:31:42.099
That's what it means,
1294
00:31:42.300 --> 00:31:42.619
right?
1295
00:31:42.859 --> 00:31:44.739
And so when you go back and they've done studies of,
1296
00:31:44.849 --> 00:31:45.180
of this,
1297
00:31:45.339 --> 00:31:46.150
there was a study on,
1298
00:31:46.260 --> 00:31:47.209
I think it was Calci of,
1299
00:31:47.219 --> 00:31:50.540
of 74,000 markets over a very long period of time.
1300
00:31:50.770 --> 00:31:53.890
And what they found is it was basically perfectly calibrated.
1301
00:31:54.089 --> 00:31:57.209
If there was something that was had a 70% chance to win,
1302
00:31:57.410 --> 00:31:59.520
it won about 70% of the time.
1303
00:31:59.849 --> 00:32:03.530
When Francesca Hong has a 95% of the chance to win,
1304
00:32:03.890 --> 00:32:06.170
she's supposed to lose 1 out of every 20.
1305
00:32:06.314 --> 00:32:07.204
of those races.
1306
00:32:07.444 --> 00:32:08.665
That is what's supposed to happen.
1307
00:32:08.795 --> 00:32:10.805
That's what the information is communicated.
1308
00:32:10.925 --> 00:32:11.045
People,
1309
00:32:11.165 --> 00:32:13.314
people don't think about percentages that way.
1310
00:32:13.635 --> 00:32:14.084
And this is,
1311
00:32:14.165 --> 00:32:15.515
this is again where you go to the,
1312
00:32:15.525 --> 00:32:16.484
the Bloomberg piece,
1313
00:32:16.564 --> 00:32:17.114
and it's,
1314
00:32:17.244 --> 00:32:20.175
it's sort of just this nanny state tone
1315
00:32:20.535 --> 00:32:21.795
about protecting,
1316
00:32:22.045 --> 00:32:22.234
uh,
1317
00:32:22.244 --> 00:32:23.444
the consumer from this,
1318
00:32:23.484 --> 00:32:24.795
this writer Erica Smith.
1319
00:32:24.834 --> 00:32:25.084
And again,
1320
00:32:25.125 --> 00:32:26.265
this Bloomberg story
1321
00:32:26.525 --> 00:32:28.005
is in the opinion section,
1322
00:32:28.094 --> 00:32:29.864
so it's one person's opinion,
1323
00:32:30.395 --> 00:32:30.675
uh,
1324
00:32:30.685 --> 00:32:33.224
here about how consumers need to be.
1325
00:32:33.479 --> 00:32:33.949
Um,
1326
00:32:34.000 --> 00:32:34.420
you know,
1327
00:32:34.920 --> 00:32:36.260
protected from themselves,
1328
00:32:36.839 --> 00:32:36.989
uh,
1329
00:32:37.040 --> 00:32:39.819
when it comes to making investments in different outcomes,
1330
00:32:40.069 --> 00:32:40.280
um,
1331
00:32:40.439 --> 00:32:42.589
but there is no evidence in this,
1332
00:32:42.760 --> 00:32:43.640
this write up of,
1333
00:32:43.680 --> 00:32:46.979
of actual consumer harm done or large scale money
1334
00:32:47.280 --> 00:32:47.739
lost,
1335
00:32:47.760 --> 00:32:49.260
because bad information
1336
00:32:49.640 --> 00:32:51.619
does tend to wash out,
1337
00:32:51.880 --> 00:32:53.420
and you do get to actually
1338
00:32:54.359 --> 00:32:57.280
change and pull out your money at any given time.
1339
00:32:57.359 --> 00:32:59.319
There's all this false conflation.
1340
00:32:59.670 --> 00:33:00.250
Between,
1341
00:33:00.760 --> 00:33:01.869
like a sports bet,
1342
00:33:02.030 --> 00:33:05.130
where you put down money on a certain outcome of a team,
1343
00:33:05.599 --> 00:33:06.349
winning or losing,
1344
00:33:06.390 --> 00:33:07.390
a binary choice,
1345
00:33:07.469 --> 00:33:07.709
yes,
1346
00:33:07.869 --> 00:33:08.310
no.
1347
00:33:08.630 --> 00:33:08.819
Well,
1348
00:33:08.989 --> 00:33:10.449
in those instances,
1349
00:33:10.750 --> 00:33:11.630
once you do that,
1350
00:33:11.709 --> 00:33:12.939
you're kind of locked in,
1351
00:33:12.989 --> 00:33:13.489
uh,
1352
00:33:13.510 --> 00:33:14.750
until the end of the ride.
1353
00:33:15.040 --> 00:33:16.020
In prediction markets,
1354
00:33:16.069 --> 00:33:19.609
you are able to move in and out of your position
1355
00:33:19.819 --> 00:33:20.390
dynamically.
1356
00:33:20.755 --> 00:33:22.145
Throughout the entire process.
1357
00:33:22.224 --> 00:33:25.405
If a bad poll enters the mar the marketplace
1358
00:33:25.594 --> 00:33:28.905
and skews perceptions of a race in California,
1359
00:33:29.305 --> 00:33:30.244
give it a week.
1360
00:33:31.185 --> 00:33:31.744
Give it a week,
1361
00:33:31.824 --> 00:33:33.635
that that number is going to adjust.
1362
00:33:33.944 --> 00:33:34.255
Um,
1363
00:33:34.344 --> 00:33:34.505
you know,
1364
00:33:34.625 --> 00:33:34.944
I,
1365
00:33:35.064 --> 00:33:36.604
I am only right now,
1366
00:33:36.824 --> 00:33:37.064
uh,
1367
00:33:37.224 --> 00:33:37.885
staked
1368
00:33:38.025 --> 00:33:40.925
in the AOC for Democratic nomination.
1369
00:33:41.750 --> 00:33:42.369
Race,
1370
00:33:42.520 --> 00:33:44.390
and that's just been such a fascinating one.
1371
00:33:44.439 --> 00:33:44.640
I mean,
1372
00:33:44.719 --> 00:33:45.520
I wouldn't have,
1373
00:33:45.800 --> 00:33:47.500
I wouldn't have considered,
1374
00:33:47.959 --> 00:33:48.239
uh,
1375
00:33:48.359 --> 00:33:50.890
six months ago when I made that position,
1376
00:33:52.650 --> 00:33:55.420
that AOC announcing that she's freezing her eggs
1377
00:33:55.660 --> 00:33:56.939
would make me money.
1378
00:33:57.280 --> 00:33:57.560
But it,
1379
00:33:57.599 --> 00:33:58.310
it does,
1380
00:33:58.439 --> 00:33:59.699
it changes,
1381
00:33:59.959 --> 00:34:01.920
it changes the dynamic and the.
1382
00:34:02.160 --> 00:34:02.819
perception of the race,
1383
00:34:03.060 --> 00:34:04.219
she's going to run,
1384
00:34:04.380 --> 00:34:06.199
she's actually going to do this.
1385
00:34:06.699 --> 00:34:07.479
And if you are,
1386
00:34:07.660 --> 00:34:07.739
yeah,
1387
00:34:07.829 --> 00:34:09.379
and if you're making that stake,
1388
00:34:09.620 --> 00:34:11.060
you can then back out of it.
1389
00:34:11.379 --> 00:34:11.550
The,
1390
00:34:11.620 --> 00:34:13.260
the point is not always to win,
1391
00:34:13.300 --> 00:34:14.458
and I think that you,
1392
00:34:14.540 --> 00:34:15.810
you probably appreciate this,
1393
00:34:15.820 --> 00:34:16.159
where
1394
00:34:16.500 --> 00:34:18.260
AOC is being undertraded,
1395
00:34:18.370 --> 00:34:20.780
and she has been getting undertraded for the past year.
1396
00:34:20.899 --> 00:34:22.520
She is not a 10%.
1397
00:34:23.050 --> 00:34:24.239
Likelihood of the nomination.
1398
00:34:24.540 --> 00:34:26.800
She's up there closer to 50%,
1399
00:34:27.179 --> 00:34:31.719
and it might be that you are riding this out to the 50% mark and then you get out,
1400
00:34:32.100 --> 00:34:33.540
because you don't need to actually make a,
1401
00:34:33.620 --> 00:34:34.918
make a stake in her winning.
1402
00:34:35.520 --> 00:34:37.520
Just that she's being undervalued
1403
00:34:37.629 --> 00:34:37.750
and,
1404
00:34:37.820 --> 00:34:38.659
and all of that helps,
1405
00:34:38.708 --> 00:34:38.909
uh,
1406
00:34:39.000 --> 00:34:39.449
you know,
1407
00:34:39.978 --> 00:34:41.449
deliver more accurate information,
1408
00:34:41.790 --> 00:34:41.969
uh,
1409
00:34:41.989 --> 00:34:42.770
to the American people.
1410
00:34:43.050 --> 00:34:43.219
Um,
1411
00:34:43.389 --> 00:34:45.270
you led me into something here I want to get to in a second,
1412
00:34:45.389 --> 00:34:45.668
Steven,
1413
00:34:45.750 --> 00:34:48.168
which is a piece you actually wrote a few months ago,
1414
00:34:48.469 --> 00:34:48.590
uh,
1415
00:34:48.909 --> 00:34:49.310
about,
1416
00:34:49.429 --> 00:34:49.629
uh,
1417
00:34:49.790 --> 00:34:49.909
you know,
1418
00:34:49.989 --> 00:34:51.550
what people call insider trading.
1419
00:34:51.610 --> 00:34:51.909
I wanna get,
1420
00:34:51.989 --> 00:34:54.010
I wanna take a break and come back with that on the other side.
1421
00:35:03.050 --> 00:35:03.360
We're talking,
1422
00:35:03.379 --> 00:35:03.649
uh,
1423
00:35:03.659 --> 00:35:05.060
prediction markets with Stephen Kent.
1424
00:35:05.179 --> 00:35:05.290
Uh,
1425
00:35:05.459 --> 00:35:05.739
Steven,
1426
00:35:05.840 --> 00:35:06.270
uh,
1427
00:35:06.419 --> 00:35:06.540
you know,
1428
00:35:06.620 --> 00:35:07.899
we've talked about this on the show a few times.
1429
00:35:07.969 --> 00:35:09.360
There's a sort of a traditional
1430
00:35:09.909 --> 00:35:11.129
set of issues that
1431
00:35:11.479 --> 00:35:13.100
every time I do an interview,
1432
00:35:13.260 --> 00:35:14.840
somebody asks me one of these questions.
1433
00:35:14.939 --> 00:35:16.570
One of them is about insider trading,
1434
00:35:16.939 --> 00:35:17.929
and we've discussed this a,
1435
00:35:18.020 --> 00:35:18.139
a,
1436
00:35:18.219 --> 00:35:19.419
a bunch of times and that.
1437
00:35:19.929 --> 00:35:20.169
You know,
1438
00:35:20.320 --> 00:35:22.889
most people I think who are trading really don't want
1439
00:35:22.889 --> 00:35:24.790
insiders to trade because it feels like they're being,
1440
00:35:24.850 --> 00:35:24.969
you know,
1441
00:35:25.120 --> 00:35:26.010
violated in some way.
1442
00:35:26.090 --> 00:35:26.520
Maybe their,
1443
00:35:26.649 --> 00:35:26.739
uh,
1444
00:35:27.050 --> 00:35:27.290
their,
1445
00:35:27.330 --> 00:35:27.820
uh,
1446
00:35:27.830 --> 00:35:28.290
experience is,
1447
00:35:28.330 --> 00:35:28.790
is poor,
1448
00:35:28.810 --> 00:35:29.689
and it's one of the reasons,
1449
00:35:29.850 --> 00:35:29.969
you know,
1450
00:35:30.090 --> 00:35:30.439
first of all,
1451
00:35:30.530 --> 00:35:31.770
there's legal issues with it.
1452
00:35:31.889 --> 00:35:32.169
Secondly,
1453
00:35:32.290 --> 00:35:34.290
that the exchanges don't like you doing it
1454
00:35:34.449 --> 00:35:35.840
because it ruins people's experience,
1455
00:35:35.969 --> 00:35:36.610
among other things.
1456
00:35:37.120 --> 00:35:37.679
Um,
1457
00:35:38.209 --> 00:35:41.530
but there is a sort of philosophical academic sort of argument that,
1458
00:35:41.610 --> 00:35:41.840
that,
1459
00:35:41.929 --> 00:35:43.189
that exists as well,
1460
00:35:43.689 --> 00:35:45.629
which is if these markets are
1461
00:35:46.090 --> 00:35:48.729
designed to bring the best information possible
1462
00:35:48.729 --> 00:35:50.399
to the people as quickly as possible,
1463
00:35:50.850 --> 00:35:53.340
then the insiders who have that information
1464
00:35:53.649 --> 00:35:54.870
should be incentivized
1465
00:35:55.570 --> 00:35:56.169
to trade,
1466
00:35:56.290 --> 00:35:56.479
right?
1467
00:35:56.570 --> 00:35:58.350
Like we would learn about things
1468
00:35:58.770 --> 00:35:59.389
earlier.
1469
00:35:59.840 --> 00:36:00.350
And so,
1470
00:36:00.600 --> 00:36:00.790
uh,
1471
00:36:00.800 --> 00:36:03.199
layered upon that whole conversation is a point
1472
00:36:03.199 --> 00:36:05.000
you made which I thought was really interesting.
1473
00:36:05.080 --> 00:36:05.620
You wrote it in,
1474
00:36:05.629 --> 00:36:05.909
uh,
1475
00:36:05.919 --> 00:36:06.750
Pirate Wires,
1476
00:36:07.000 --> 00:36:09.000
which is let the door knockers trade.
1477
00:36:09.159 --> 00:36:12.699
Allowing political staffers to wager on campaign results
1478
00:36:12.879 --> 00:36:13.889
isn't corrupt.
1479
00:36:14.080 --> 00:36:16.379
It's maximizing the utility that prediction markets
1480
00:36:16.560 --> 00:36:18.419
were supposed to provide in the first place.
1481
00:36:18.679 --> 00:36:21.229
It's a really interesting take for a bunch of reasons,
1482
00:36:21.590 --> 00:36:23.070
including stuff that we've talked about today.
1483
00:36:23.320 --> 00:36:24.760
Can you kind of walk us through your argument here?
1484
00:36:25.840 --> 00:36:26.040
You know,
1485
00:36:26.080 --> 00:36:28.219
the basics of my argument that are,
1486
00:36:28.320 --> 00:36:28.590
uh,
1487
00:36:28.600 --> 00:36:28.879
are,
1488
00:36:28.949 --> 00:36:30.939
if you are in a marketplace,
1489
00:36:31.280 --> 00:36:33.860
and you are in a physical zone,
1490
00:36:34.080 --> 00:36:37.760
where people are wagering money and placing certain bets,
1491
00:36:37.840 --> 00:36:39.800
making investments on different outcomes,
1492
00:36:39.879 --> 00:36:41.500
and they know nothing
1493
00:36:42.120 --> 00:36:43.669
about the inner workings or
1494
00:36:43.879 --> 00:36:46.800
or details of a given industry or outcome,
1495
00:36:47.120 --> 00:36:48.760
then you You are in a casino.
1496
00:36:49.120 --> 00:36:50.479
That is what a casino is,
1497
00:36:50.560 --> 00:36:52.989
when you go out onto the slot machine floor,
1498
00:36:53.199 --> 00:36:55.149
and everybody is just playing the odds,
1499
00:36:55.159 --> 00:36:57.260
and they don't know how any of this works.
1500
00:36:57.560 --> 00:36:59.350
But in a prediction market,
1501
00:36:59.560 --> 00:37:01.320
you are actually supposed to,
1502
00:37:01.399 --> 00:37:02.699
and in a market,
1503
00:37:02.840 --> 00:37:02.929
uh,
1504
00:37:03.199 --> 00:37:03.639
generally,
1505
00:37:03.719 --> 00:37:03.879
you know,
1506
00:37:04.040 --> 00:37:05.040
such as Wall Street,
1507
00:37:05.320 --> 00:37:09.149
you want people who understand what is happening.
1508
00:37:09.439 --> 00:37:09.639
Uh,
1509
00:37:09.689 --> 00:37:10.909
to be involved
1510
00:37:11.169 --> 00:37:15.689
in actually making investments and showing what is going to be successful.
1511
00:37:16.090 --> 00:37:18.070
So all knowledge
1512
00:37:18.370 --> 00:37:19.729
is not insider trading.
1513
00:37:19.850 --> 00:37:19.969
I,
1514
00:37:20.010 --> 00:37:21.250
I'll offer an analogy,
1515
00:37:21.290 --> 00:37:23.790
if you are an assistant camera operator,
1516
00:37:23.800 --> 00:37:25.110
or even an editor,
1517
00:37:25.370 --> 00:37:26.449
on the upcoming,
1518
00:37:26.570 --> 00:37:26.850
you know,
1519
00:37:27.050 --> 00:37:29.120
Disney Star Wars movie that's going to be
1520
00:37:29.120 --> 00:37:31.810
coming out with Ryan Gosling called Starfighter.
1521
00:37:32.469 --> 00:37:34.899
Is that really any different
1522
00:37:35.270 --> 00:37:36.100
than you,
1523
00:37:36.149 --> 00:37:36.629
um,
1524
00:37:36.830 --> 00:37:38.379
being a campaign staffer,
1525
00:37:38.510 --> 00:37:41.330
trading on the success of your campaign,
1526
00:37:41.580 --> 00:37:42.689
and you say,
1527
00:37:43.030 --> 00:37:46.830
this movie is not going to break 80% on Rotten Tomatoes.
1528
00:37:46.949 --> 00:37:47.149
I,
1529
00:37:47.270 --> 00:37:48.889
I was there on the production,
1530
00:37:49.030 --> 00:37:50.510
I don't believe in it.
1531
00:37:50.750 --> 00:37:50.790
I,
1532
00:37:50.909 --> 00:37:52.219
I've seen the acting,
1533
00:37:52.300 --> 00:37:54.310
the acting isn't particularly good.
1534
00:37:54.969 --> 00:37:57.149
That is not insider trading.
1535
00:37:57.489 --> 00:37:58.790
Insider trading
1536
00:37:59.090 --> 00:38:01.550
is what happened on the the set of Mr.
1537
00:38:01.570 --> 00:38:01.989
Beast,
1538
00:38:02.129 --> 00:38:03.149
with an editor,
1539
00:38:03.409 --> 00:38:07.129
uh who actually knew what the outcome of a video was,
1540
00:38:07.409 --> 00:38:08.070
and then
1541
00:38:08.290 --> 00:38:11.179
people who actually put their thumb on the scale and the outcome.
1542
00:38:11.290 --> 00:38:14.409
So when a campaign staffer writes your speeches,
1543
00:38:14.689 --> 00:38:17.409
and there's a prediction market that says Donald Trump is.
1544
00:38:17.580 --> 00:38:19.110
Going to say the word burrito,
1545
00:38:19.120 --> 00:38:23.169
and you put burrito into the prediction market because you wrote the script.
1546
00:38:23.489 --> 00:38:25.489
That is insider trading,
1547
00:38:25.929 --> 00:38:31.189
not knowledge and familiarity with the inner workings of any industry or outcome.
1548
00:38:31.530 --> 00:38:31.689
Yeah,
1549
00:38:31.770 --> 00:38:31.929
it's,
1550
00:38:31.969 --> 00:38:32.209
it's a,
1551
00:38:32.260 --> 00:38:32.739
it's a
1552
00:38:32.989 --> 00:38:34.330
difficult distinction and look,
1553
00:38:34.429 --> 00:38:34.840
in the,
1554
00:38:34.889 --> 00:38:35.290
the leak,
1555
00:38:35.449 --> 00:38:36.889
this happens in Wall Street all the time,
1556
00:38:36.929 --> 00:38:37.250
like that,
1557
00:38:37.330 --> 00:38:39.250
that distinction's really difficult for people to,
1558
00:38:39.370 --> 00:38:39.489
to,
1559
00:38:39.580 --> 00:38:40.330
to track down.
1560
00:38:40.790 --> 00:38:41.149
But like,
1561
00:38:41.270 --> 00:38:41.350
I,
1562
00:38:41.419 --> 00:38:42.889
I'm always amazed by people who make,
1563
00:38:42.989 --> 00:38:43.179
uh,
1564
00:38:43.310 --> 00:38:44.060
points
1565
00:38:44.399 --> 00:38:46.020
against some of the stuff where they're like,
1566
00:38:46.070 --> 00:38:46.540
you know,
1567
00:38:46.949 --> 00:38:47.860
we've noticed that,
1568
00:38:47.870 --> 00:38:48.090
uh,
1569
00:38:48.100 --> 00:38:50.010
people who are on Calci and Polymarket,
1570
00:38:50.350 --> 00:38:51.530
it's the people who are
1571
00:38:51.790 --> 00:38:53.370
good at trading who win
1572
00:38:53.550 --> 00:38:55.209
and the people who just show up
1573
00:38:55.310 --> 00:38:57.229
and start clicking around with no knowledge.
1574
00:38:57.354 --> 00:38:58.155
Anything that they're doing,
1575
00:38:58.235 --> 00:38:58.715
who lose.
1576
00:38:58.754 --> 00:38:59.024
It's like,
1577
00:38:59.034 --> 00:38:59.354
oh,
1578
00:38:59.625 --> 00:38:59.925
you know,
1579
00:39:00.175 --> 00:39:00.304
uh,
1580
00:39:00.395 --> 00:39:04.155
we've noticed people in the NBA Hall of Fame practiced a lot of basketball.
1581
00:39:04.235 --> 00:39:04.314
Well,
1582
00:39:04.395 --> 00:39:04.715
yes,
1583
00:39:04.794 --> 00:39:05.314
we want,
1584
00:39:05.435 --> 00:39:05.625
like,
1585
00:39:05.635 --> 00:39:06.764
that's the point of a market,
1586
00:39:06.834 --> 00:39:09.594
that people who know something about it are going to do better.
1587
00:39:09.834 --> 00:39:12.114
It would be a really stupid market
1588
00:39:12.395 --> 00:39:13.935
if the opposite were true.
1589
00:39:14.274 --> 00:39:15.854
But one of the things that I thought was interesting
1590
00:39:16.074 --> 00:39:16.675
based on our,
1591
00:39:16.754 --> 00:39:16.824
you know,
1592
00:39:16.905 --> 00:39:19.074
kind of surrounding our previous conversation on polling,
1593
00:39:19.195 --> 00:39:19.594
fake,
1594
00:39:19.764 --> 00:39:20.784
let's say fake polls,
1595
00:39:20.794 --> 00:39:21.375
for example,
1596
00:39:22.034 --> 00:39:25.155
one of the ways that campaigns manipulate results all the time.
1597
00:39:25.459 --> 00:39:25.479
Is
1598
00:39:26.540 --> 00:39:28.159
they do internal polling,
1599
00:39:28.620 --> 00:39:30.989
they get a real picture of what's going on,
1600
00:39:31.219 --> 00:39:33.860
and then when it doesn't support their candidate,
1601
00:39:34.060 --> 00:39:35.260
they don't release it.
1602
00:39:35.540 --> 00:39:36.250
They hide it,
1603
00:39:36.379 --> 00:39:36.750
right?
1604
00:39:36.820 --> 00:39:38.040
They don't want people to know.
1605
00:39:38.219 --> 00:39:38.419
And,
1606
00:39:38.469 --> 00:39:38.620
you know,
1607
00:39:38.729 --> 00:39:39.540
they paid for the poll.
1608
00:39:39.620 --> 00:39:40.419
It's their right to,
1609
00:39:40.540 --> 00:39:41.560
to not release it.
1610
00:39:42.100 --> 00:39:42.590
But like,
1611
00:39:42.780 --> 00:39:46.419
we would prevent in at least some version of this insider trading argument,
1612
00:39:46.500 --> 00:39:48.800
we would prevent a person who knew.
1613
00:39:49.179 --> 00:39:52.419
That the campaign was hiding information from the American people,
1614
00:39:52.899 --> 00:39:53.360
from
1615
00:39:53.820 --> 00:39:55.719
expressing that in this way
1616
00:39:55.939 --> 00:40:00.030
and winding up incentivizing them to actually get that information out there,
1617
00:40:00.409 --> 00:40:01.280
where I feel like
1618
00:40:01.500 --> 00:40:02.939
the opposite should be our goal.
1619
00:40:02.979 --> 00:40:03.459
Like we,
1620
00:40:03.699 --> 00:40:06.179
we should want to unearth that information,
1621
00:40:06.219 --> 00:40:08.739
just like we would encourage a journalist who's getting paid,
1622
00:40:08.820 --> 00:40:09.139
by the way,
1623
00:40:09.219 --> 00:40:10.419
to try to get that information.
1624
00:40:10.760 --> 00:40:10.929
Uh,
1625
00:40:11.090 --> 00:40:11.159
to,
1626
00:40:11.250 --> 00:40:13.350
to try to unearth it and get it to the American people,
1627
00:40:13.649 --> 00:40:14.840
we should want the same thing,
1628
00:40:14.850 --> 00:40:15.129
I think,
1629
00:40:15.209 --> 00:40:18.610
out of prediction markets to deliver that information that does exist
1630
00:40:18.610 --> 00:40:21.090
and is being hidden from us in an efficient way.
1631
00:40:21.770 --> 00:40:22.050
You know,
1632
00:40:22.129 --> 00:40:24.729
going back to the Bloomberg article that we discussed,
1633
00:40:24.820 --> 00:40:29.229
it says at the very top of that article that legitimate pollsters believe
1634
00:40:29.409 --> 00:40:33.949
the company's motive that put out the fake poll was to influence public opinion
1635
00:40:34.169 --> 00:40:37.290
and then manipulate prediction markets for financial gain.
1636
00:40:37.570 --> 00:40:38.929
I know a lot of pollsters.
1637
00:40:39.229 --> 00:40:41.209
I spent a little time working at one.
1638
00:40:41.570 --> 00:40:43.189
At one period of time,
1639
00:40:43.209 --> 00:40:45.679
and there's no manipulation going on,
1640
00:40:45.939 --> 00:40:48.479
but I'll tell you who trades on prediction markets,
1641
00:40:48.649 --> 00:40:49.469
pollsters,
1642
00:40:49.889 --> 00:40:52.409
because they have privileged information
1643
00:40:52.889 --> 00:40:55.639
about what is going on inside campaigns.
1644
00:40:55.729 --> 00:40:59.205
They actually have hard numbers about what's You know,
1645
00:40:59.324 --> 00:41:01.344
how the public are feeling about things,
1646
00:41:01.594 --> 00:41:03.544
and nobody bats an eye
1647
00:41:03.705 --> 00:41:07.044
at pollsters who have these numbers trading,
1648
00:41:07.245 --> 00:41:10.445
but they do bat an eye if a campaign staffer
1649
00:41:10.645 --> 00:41:14.385
were to then receive the information that said pollsters gave to them,
1650
00:41:14.645 --> 00:41:16.195
and then make a trade.
1651
00:41:16.564 --> 00:41:16.834
Um,
1652
00:41:16.925 --> 00:41:17.084
you know,
1653
00:41:17.205 --> 00:41:19.064
these are two very different things.
1654
00:41:19.165 --> 00:41:22.125
These are two very different things when you're talking about insider trading.
1655
00:41:22.500 --> 00:41:23.090
Um,
1656
00:41:23.219 --> 00:41:23.500
you know,
1657
00:41:23.610 --> 00:41:25.750
I do think that campaign staffers,
1658
00:41:25.820 --> 00:41:26.899
to the point of my article,
1659
00:41:27.189 --> 00:41:30.239
should absolutely be able to participate in these markets
1660
00:41:30.419 --> 00:41:32.199
and tell us through
1661
00:41:32.459 --> 00:41:33.399
their investing
1662
00:41:33.820 --> 00:41:36.040
what they actually think is going to happen.
1663
00:41:36.219 --> 00:41:38.520
There are tons of people who work on campaigns
1664
00:41:38.739 --> 00:41:41.239
who realize that it is a sinking ship,
1665
00:41:41.500 --> 00:41:41.770
um,
1666
00:41:41.899 --> 00:41:44.500
and there's no inherent conflict of interest.
1667
00:41:44.989 --> 00:41:45.270
And,
1668
00:41:45.280 --> 00:41:45.590
and actually,
1669
00:41:45.669 --> 00:41:45.870
you know,
1670
00:41:46.030 --> 00:41:47.330
putting $10 on,
1671
00:41:47.340 --> 00:41:49.179
on the outcome of the race that you're in.
1672
00:41:49.389 --> 00:41:51.189
I was talking to somebody just the other day who was working for,
1673
00:41:51.270 --> 00:41:51.510
uh,
1674
00:41:51.629 --> 00:41:51.870
you know,
1675
00:41:51.989 --> 00:41:52.189
a,
1676
00:41:52.310 --> 00:41:52.610
a
1677
00:41:52.860 --> 00:41:54.429
relatively well-known campaign.
1678
00:41:54.500 --> 00:41:55.169
It was just like,
1679
00:41:55.629 --> 00:41:55.939
look,
1680
00:41:56.110 --> 00:41:56.229
you know,
1681
00:41:56.350 --> 00:41:56.560
cause he,
1682
00:41:56.669 --> 00:41:58.379
he knows I'm a prediction market guy,
1683
00:41:58.389 --> 00:41:58.620
and he,
1684
00:41:58.669 --> 00:41:59.469
he doesn't work with them,
1685
00:41:59.550 --> 00:41:59.830
but he's,
1686
00:41:59.949 --> 00:42:01.389
he's covered them and he's done some research on them,
1687
00:42:01.429 --> 00:42:01.919
and he was just like,
1688
00:42:01.949 --> 00:42:02.360
I.
1689
00:42:02.659 --> 00:42:03.010
I don't know.
1690
00:42:03.060 --> 00:42:04.560
That's not where I would be putting my money,
1691
00:42:04.580 --> 00:42:05.010
uh,
1692
00:42:05.020 --> 00:42:06.060
because he was,
1693
00:42:06.540 --> 00:42:08.530
he thought like things could crumble perhaps in the future.
1694
00:42:10.139 --> 00:42:10.290
Uh,
1695
00:42:10.379 --> 00:42:10.540
you know,
1696
00:42:10.820 --> 00:42:11.020
you,
1697
00:42:11.050 --> 00:42:11.080
you
1698
00:42:11.659 --> 00:42:12.260
people talk,
1699
00:42:12.340 --> 00:42:14.469
they have those conversations like that is not a,
1700
00:42:14.659 --> 00:42:16.939
a knowledge of what the vote is going to be.
1701
00:42:17.020 --> 00:42:18.370
You can't know that information,
1702
00:42:18.429 --> 00:42:18.860
which is the,
1703
00:42:18.939 --> 00:42:19.979
the final outcome.
1704
00:42:20.409 --> 00:42:22.850
Taking other information and trying to synthesize it into an argument.
1705
00:42:22.929 --> 00:42:22.969
I,
1706
00:42:23.030 --> 00:42:25.550
I thought it was a really interesting point and an interesting distinction
1707
00:42:26.050 --> 00:42:26.360
from,
1708
00:42:26.370 --> 00:42:26.719
uh,
1709
00:42:26.860 --> 00:42:27.070
from,
1710
00:42:27.110 --> 00:42:27.629
uh,
1711
00:42:27.770 --> 00:42:29.169
from the insider trading conversation.
1712
00:42:29.209 --> 00:42:30.760
You can see this at Pirate wires.
1713
00:42:30.810 --> 00:42:32.310
We'll we'll tweet out a link to it as well,
1714
00:42:32.560 --> 00:42:32.719
uh,
1715
00:42:32.889 --> 00:42:33.409
Stephen Kent.
1716
00:42:33.649 --> 00:42:33.879
Steven,
1717
00:42:33.929 --> 00:42:34.000
I,
1718
00:42:34.070 --> 00:42:34.129
I,
1719
00:42:34.209 --> 00:42:34.530
I want to,
1720
00:42:34.610 --> 00:42:36.830
I do a segment every once in a while on the show called,
1721
00:42:36.929 --> 00:42:37.000
uh,
1722
00:42:37.090 --> 00:42:38.189
Here's one I kind of like.
1723
00:42:38.570 --> 00:42:38.770
Um,
1724
00:42:38.850 --> 00:42:39.120
when I,
1725
00:42:39.169 --> 00:42:40.030
when I talk about,
1726
00:42:40.090 --> 00:42:40.360
uh,
1727
00:42:40.449 --> 00:42:40.909
just
1728
00:42:41.330 --> 00:42:43.270
markets that I've found that are
1729
00:42:43.879 --> 00:42:44.010
interesting.
1730
00:42:44.090 --> 00:42:46.590
It's not that I have some inside information certainly
1731
00:42:46.810 --> 00:42:48.689
that I don't even have like extended insight.
1732
00:42:49.159 --> 00:42:49.840
I just like them.
1733
00:42:49.919 --> 00:42:50.060
I,
1734
00:42:50.080 --> 00:42:50.340
this is,
1735
00:42:50.350 --> 00:42:51.870
this is an interesting one and my,
1736
00:42:51.919 --> 00:42:52.520
my mind's open.
1737
00:42:52.639 --> 00:42:53.379
I'm taking a look.
1738
00:42:53.760 --> 00:42:54.959
I wanted to run a couple by,
1739
00:42:55.030 --> 00:42:55.229
uh,
1740
00:42:55.239 --> 00:42:56.110
by you and I think,
1741
00:42:56.120 --> 00:42:56.310
uh,
1742
00:42:56.320 --> 00:42:59.060
you have one here that I wanted to talk about as well.
1743
00:42:59.439 --> 00:42:59.860
Um,
1744
00:43:00.120 --> 00:43:03.399
can you tell me about the Kim Jong-un market you're looking at?
1745
00:43:04.649 --> 00:43:04.870
Yeah,
1746
00:43:04.979 --> 00:43:05.169
well,
1747
00:43:05.219 --> 00:43:09.989
there's an ongoing market for who will Donald Trump meet with this year.
1748
00:43:10.260 --> 00:43:11.060
And you know,
1749
00:43:11.219 --> 00:43:12.219
for example,
1750
00:43:12.419 --> 00:43:13.820
around the time when
1751
00:43:14.020 --> 00:43:15.959
Operation Epic Fury began,
1752
00:43:16.419 --> 00:43:20.139
I was pretty sure he was going to meet with meet with Reza Pavlavi,
1753
00:43:20.209 --> 00:43:20.419
you know,
1754
00:43:20.540 --> 00:43:21.840
the Iranian dissident,
1755
00:43:22.340 --> 00:43:22.510
uh,
1756
00:43:22.899 --> 00:43:25.479
proper heir to the throne in Iran.
1757
00:43:26.010 --> 00:43:28.350
Who lives in Washington DC.
1758
00:43:28.699 --> 00:43:28.870
I,
1759
00:43:29.010 --> 00:43:31.570
I felt personally like if we are going to
1760
00:43:31.570 --> 00:43:34.350
be taking out the Ayatollah and flipping the country,
1761
00:43:34.610 --> 00:43:37.489
Pavlavvi will at least get a White House meeting.
1762
00:43:37.729 --> 00:43:41.080
That has not transpired because things have have gone so poorly
1763
00:43:41.080 --> 00:43:43.530
over the last 6 months in terms of wrapping it up.
1764
00:43:43.889 --> 00:43:44.250
But you know,
1765
00:43:44.649 --> 00:43:45.219
it offers,
1766
00:43:45.360 --> 00:43:46.629
will he meet with Kim Jong-un?
1767
00:43:46.729 --> 00:43:49.679
Now he has not met with Kim since his first term,
1768
00:43:50.010 --> 00:43:52.610
but he said yesterday the president said,
1769
00:43:52.959 --> 00:43:53.120
Uh,
1770
00:43:53.179 --> 00:43:53.899
after he,
1771
00:43:54.040 --> 00:43:54.199
uh,
1772
00:43:54.280 --> 00:43:57.540
made some remarks about South Korea and not doing drills with them,
1773
00:43:57.800 --> 00:44:00.080
that he intends to meet with Kim Jong-un,
1774
00:44:00.129 --> 00:44:02.459
who he has a wonderful relationship with
1775
00:44:03.080 --> 00:44:04.739
by the end of the year.
1776
00:44:05.120 --> 00:44:05.389
Now,
1777
00:44:05.669 --> 00:44:09.820
we don't know if that is the calendar year or just the next 12 months,
1778
00:44:10.159 --> 00:44:10.840
but right now,
1779
00:44:10.879 --> 00:44:11.199
you know,
1780
00:44:11.439 --> 00:44:12.860
Kim Jong-un meeting is trading,
1781
00:44:12.919 --> 00:44:13.120
yes,
1782
00:44:13.159 --> 00:44:14.379
at 37%,
1783
00:44:15.000 --> 00:44:16.800
no at 66%.
1784
00:44:17.360 --> 00:44:19.979
That seems to me like a pretty good opportunity.
1785
00:44:20.500 --> 00:44:24.120
I personally don't think that this meeting is going to occur,
1786
00:44:24.459 --> 00:44:29.159
so you'll notice that the market has trended up for Kim since Trump made this remark.
1787
00:44:29.540 --> 00:44:33.919
I think the Pentagon will probably shut this thing down because of tensions within
1788
00:44:34.360 --> 00:44:37.020
um uh uh Asia and the South Pacific.
1789
00:44:37.260 --> 00:44:38.939
I think things are too hot right now,
1790
00:44:39.060 --> 00:44:39.979
too uncertain,
1791
00:44:40.219 --> 00:44:44.570
and I do happen to think that the State Department will not allow that to go forward.
1792
00:44:44.699 --> 00:44:46.060
That's an interesting case because I mean I,
1793
00:44:46.120 --> 00:44:46.239
I,
1794
00:44:46.340 --> 00:44:47.979
you think about the first time they met.
1795
00:44:48.550 --> 00:44:49.889
The goal there
1796
00:44:50.280 --> 00:44:51.689
was to
1797
00:44:51.949 --> 00:44:55.290
basically get rid of an accelerating situation,
1798
00:44:55.429 --> 00:44:55.590
right?
1799
00:44:55.629 --> 00:44:58.000
Like it seemed like at the time there was a chance that
1800
00:44:58.000 --> 00:45:00.870
maybe Kim Jong-un was going to start firing missiles and everything else,
1801
00:45:01.060 --> 00:45:03.169
and he was trying to calm that situation
1802
00:45:03.629 --> 00:45:05.100
by putting himself on the line in,
1803
00:45:05.149 --> 00:45:05.469
in that,
1804
00:45:05.530 --> 00:45:06.719
in that particular meeting.
1805
00:45:07.189 --> 00:45:07.689
Here,
1806
00:45:07.949 --> 00:45:10.770
really his intent seems more to be
1807
00:45:11.060 --> 00:45:13.090
to kind of punish South Korea.
1808
00:45:13.189 --> 00:45:13.350
Like,
1809
00:45:13.469 --> 00:45:13.629
you know,
1810
00:45:13.739 --> 00:45:14.540
he's just,
1811
00:45:14.590 --> 00:45:14.699
yeah,
1812
00:45:15.030 --> 00:45:15.110
yeah,
1813
00:45:15.189 --> 00:45:16.179
he's like basically saying like,
1814
00:45:16.229 --> 00:45:16.310
hey,
1815
00:45:16.389 --> 00:45:17.810
you guys aren't helping me with Iran.
1816
00:45:18.010 --> 00:45:19.449
And I want you to be helping me with Iran.
1817
00:45:19.530 --> 00:45:20.530
We help you with all this stuff.
1818
00:45:20.570 --> 00:45:20.850
You know what,
1819
00:45:20.899 --> 00:45:22.310
maybe I'll go talk to Kim Jong-un.
1820
00:45:22.620 --> 00:45:25.629
That doesn't seem like the same sort of thing that's going to make him go over
1821
00:45:26.100 --> 00:45:26.929
to Pyong and you know what else,
1822
00:45:27.010 --> 00:45:28.419
you know what else didn't,
1823
00:45:28.610 --> 00:45:30.969
wasn't occurring in in Trump 1.0,
1824
00:45:31.250 --> 00:45:31.679
um,
1825
00:45:31.969 --> 00:45:35.560
North Korean troops fighting on the Ukrainian front with Russians.
1826
00:45:35.929 --> 00:45:36.120
Uh,
1827
00:45:36.209 --> 00:45:36.370
you know,
1828
00:45:36.449 --> 00:45:38.830
North Korea has soldiers on the ground.
1829
00:45:39.419 --> 00:45:39.780
Uh,
1830
00:45:39.790 --> 00:45:43.649
fighting the Ukrainians and presumably fighting CIA operatives,
1831
00:45:43.750 --> 00:45:44.300
not
1832
00:45:45.340 --> 00:45:47.209
as well on that eastern front.
1833
00:45:47.709 --> 00:45:50.870
I don't think that Donald Trump in in this current
1834
00:45:50.870 --> 00:45:53.350
climate is going to be meeting with Kim Jong-un,
1835
00:45:53.790 --> 00:45:56.830
so that is an opportunity to not take the bait.
1836
00:45:57.229 --> 00:45:57.479
Uh,
1837
00:45:57.560 --> 00:45:59.239
and invest in the other direction.
1838
00:45:59.560 --> 00:46:00.360
Just my opinion.
1839
00:46:00.520 --> 00:46:01.000
I will say too,
1840
00:46:01.080 --> 00:46:01.219
as,
1841
00:46:01.229 --> 00:46:01.260
as,
1842
00:46:01.320 --> 00:46:01.469
as,
1843
00:46:01.800 --> 00:46:01.919
you know,
1844
00:46:02.040 --> 00:46:03.320
I love just talking these things out.
1845
00:46:03.419 --> 00:46:03.520
I,
1846
00:46:03.600 --> 00:46:05.040
I don't have a hardcore position on this one,
1847
00:46:05.120 --> 00:46:05.399
but
1848
00:46:05.639 --> 00:46:06.919
it is one of those things that,
1849
00:46:07.159 --> 00:46:07.320
uh,
1850
00:46:07.399 --> 00:46:10.159
as a general sort of rule,
1851
00:46:10.679 --> 00:46:12.260
going against hype
1852
00:46:12.530 --> 00:46:14.639
is a great way to look at these markets.
1853
00:46:14.719 --> 00:46:15.149
I can't tell you,
1854
00:46:15.159 --> 00:46:15.360
I was,
1855
00:46:15.479 --> 00:46:16.050
I was going through,
1856
00:46:16.120 --> 00:46:16.320
um,
1857
00:46:16.429 --> 00:46:16.560
you know,
1858
00:46:16.639 --> 00:46:16.649
we,
1859
00:46:16.800 --> 00:46:18.879
we listed all of my 200+,
1860
00:46:19.000 --> 00:46:19.540
uh,
1861
00:46:19.550 --> 00:46:20.760
prediction market positions
1862
00:46:21.000 --> 00:46:23.199
on the premium tier over at PredictableShow.com,
1863
00:46:23.239 --> 00:46:23.979
and as I was going through,
1864
00:46:24.159 --> 00:46:25.919
I had to write notes for a lot of them.
1865
00:46:26.219 --> 00:46:27.899
And over and over again I found myself like,
1866
00:46:27.979 --> 00:46:28.060
you know,
1867
00:46:28.100 --> 00:46:28.840
I was trying to explain
1868
00:46:29.580 --> 00:46:31.290
why I took this position at the time,
1869
00:46:31.500 --> 00:46:31.939
and almost,
1870
00:46:32.060 --> 00:46:32.139
you know,
1871
00:46:32.219 --> 00:46:32.449
I don't know,
1872
00:46:32.500 --> 00:46:33.739
it's felt like a quarter of them.
1873
00:46:33.780 --> 00:46:34.379
I just was like,
1874
00:46:34.500 --> 00:46:34.540
well,
1875
00:46:34.629 --> 00:46:37.350
I was going against the hype because everyone was promoting this thing
1876
00:46:37.540 --> 00:46:40.330
and then it didn't happen and now it's come all the way back to the other side.
1877
00:46:40.540 --> 00:46:41.949
It's a great way to look at this,
1878
00:46:42.050 --> 00:46:43.020
and it's a great way to get,
1879
00:46:43.139 --> 00:46:43.300
you know,
1880
00:46:43.379 --> 00:46:44.790
it's a great way to check the,
1881
00:46:44.860 --> 00:46:45.500
the,
1882
00:46:45.620 --> 00:46:47.020
the news diet that we have.
1883
00:46:47.100 --> 00:46:47.899
They all get excited.
1884
00:46:47.979 --> 00:46:49.639
They run these stories constantly.
1885
00:46:49.979 --> 00:46:52.129
If you kind of can catch that stuff and recognize that there's,
1886
00:46:52.179 --> 00:46:52.969
there's opportunity there.
1887
00:46:53.020 --> 00:46:53.899
Let me give you one more here though,
1888
00:46:54.020 --> 00:46:54.260
Steven.
1889
00:46:54.939 --> 00:46:56.040
This one's in your wheelhouse,
1890
00:46:56.199 --> 00:46:56.669
OK?
1891
00:46:57.090 --> 00:46:58.129
I don't know how you feel about this,
1892
00:46:58.250 --> 00:46:59.350
but it's one I have.
1893
00:47:00.449 --> 00:47:01.010
Best,
1894
00:47:01.250 --> 00:47:01.479
uh,
1895
00:47:01.570 --> 00:47:02.070
actor
1896
00:47:02.489 --> 00:47:03.510
at the Oscars.
1897
00:47:03.850 --> 00:47:04.340
OK.
1898
00:47:05.330 --> 00:47:06.399
This is coming up here.
1899
00:47:06.610 --> 00:47:08.169
We don't know who's gonna be nominated.
1900
00:47:08.330 --> 00:47:09.909
The market is who will be
1901
00:47:10.129 --> 00:47:10.810
nominated for,
1902
00:47:10.929 --> 00:47:11.830
for an Oscar.
1903
00:47:12.250 --> 00:47:14.090
There is a Star Wars tie,
1904
00:47:14.139 --> 00:47:14.300
uh,
1905
00:47:14.330 --> 00:47:15.449
to this particular market,
1906
00:47:15.560 --> 00:47:17.550
and I have a no position on
1907
00:47:17.729 --> 00:47:18.989
Pedro Pascal,
1908
00:47:19.989 --> 00:47:20.000
uh,
1909
00:47:20.010 --> 00:47:21.370
in Mandalorian and Grogu.
1910
00:47:21.419 --> 00:47:21.709
Now,
1911
00:47:21.810 --> 00:47:24.449
this movie was not particularly well received,
1912
00:47:24.530 --> 00:47:24.969
I would say,
1913
00:47:25.090 --> 00:47:26.590
as a Star Wars vehicle,
1914
00:47:27.050 --> 00:47:29.229
and my main argument here is.
1915
00:47:29.570 --> 00:47:31.760
Pedro Vpascal does a fine job with the role.
1916
00:47:31.810 --> 00:47:33.290
I'm not criticizing what he's doing,
1917
00:47:33.370 --> 00:47:33.699
but
1918
00:47:34.010 --> 00:47:38.030
the role entails that he is in a mask for almost all of it,
1919
00:47:38.330 --> 00:47:38.750
and
1920
00:47:38.889 --> 00:47:42.639
he's talking in a very monotone way as part of the character.
1921
00:47:43.090 --> 00:47:48.129
He's not doing all that much heavy lifting when it comes to his acting in this role.
1922
00:47:48.260 --> 00:47:49.429
Why would he get a best,
1923
00:47:49.530 --> 00:47:49.760
uh,
1924
00:47:49.770 --> 00:47:51.270
actor nomination at the Oscars?
1925
00:47:51.340 --> 00:47:52.449
I'm a no on this one.
1926
00:47:52.689 --> 00:47:53.489
Am I insane?
1927
00:47:54.280 --> 00:47:54.719
Oh yeah,
1928
00:47:54.840 --> 00:47:55.159
this is,
1929
00:47:55.239 --> 00:47:58.939
this is a total psyop that he has even listed on there.
1930
00:47:59.159 --> 00:47:59.649
No,
1931
00:48:00.000 --> 00:48:00.159
no,
1932
00:48:00.199 --> 00:48:02.229
it's 72%.
1933
00:48:02.639 --> 00:48:02.760
Yeah,
1934
00:48:02.919 --> 00:48:03.239
again,
1935
00:48:03.439 --> 00:48:04.820
he doesn't have
1936
00:48:05.239 --> 00:48:10.290
meaningful screen time besides a fistfight with a sea monster
1937
00:48:10.760 --> 00:48:12.020
towards the end of this film,
1938
00:48:12.189 --> 00:48:14.040
and as far as I know,
1939
00:48:14.139 --> 00:48:18.139
I'm pretty sure the voice acting through the rest of the movie
1940
00:48:18.399 --> 00:48:19.780
is not even
1941
00:48:20.159 --> 00:48:23.040
uh Pedro Pascal like underneath the helmet.
1942
00:48:23.360 --> 00:48:23.370
Um,
1943
00:48:23.879 --> 00:48:25.439
it's a lot of voice acting work.
1944
00:48:25.760 --> 00:48:28.760
So this is an opportunity to gut check yourself and go,
1945
00:48:29.100 --> 00:48:31.379
does Star Wars get
1946
00:48:31.719 --> 00:48:34.060
best actor nominations?
1947
00:48:34.560 --> 00:48:35.020
No,
1948
00:48:35.280 --> 00:48:35.439
no,
1949
00:48:35.560 --> 00:48:35.699
it,
1950
00:48:35.760 --> 00:48:36.439
it does not.
1951
00:48:36.600 --> 00:48:37.899
Star Wars does not.
1952
00:48:38.239 --> 00:48:38.469
Uh,
1953
00:48:38.639 --> 00:48:40.419
do well at the Academy,
1954
00:48:40.719 --> 00:48:43.260
even the good Star Wars doesn't do good,
1955
00:48:43.520 --> 00:48:43.679
uh,
1956
00:48:43.760 --> 00:48:44.429
in the Emmys,
1957
00:48:44.439 --> 00:48:45.280
like Andor,
1958
00:48:45.360 --> 00:48:45.679
like you,
1959
00:48:45.750 --> 00:48:47.139
you have to really take
1960
00:48:47.280 --> 00:48:49.199
a historical note here and go,
1961
00:48:49.560 --> 00:48:50.659
it ain't gonna be
1962
00:48:50.840 --> 00:48:54.820
Mandalorian and Grogu that gets them an Oscar nomination for best
1963
00:48:55.199 --> 00:48:55.699
actor.
1964
00:48:55.760 --> 00:48:59.320
It is safer to go with these legacy popular actors,
1965
00:48:59.439 --> 00:49:00.260
Ryan Gosling,
1966
00:49:00.399 --> 00:49:01.199
John Malkovich,
1967
00:49:01.280 --> 00:49:02.300
Robert Pattinson.
1968
00:49:02.800 --> 00:49:05.540
Ryan Gosling is having a huge year right now.
1969
00:49:06.020 --> 00:49:06.030
Uh,
1970
00:49:06.280 --> 00:49:07.300
Project Hail Mary is a,
1971
00:49:08.239 --> 00:49:08.399
yeah,
1972
00:49:08.719 --> 00:49:10.500
it's a perfect blend between
1973
00:49:10.919 --> 00:49:12.179
popcorn movie
1974
00:49:12.360 --> 00:49:16.219
and actually artistically sound film that did well with the critics.
1975
00:49:16.560 --> 00:49:16.820
Um,
1976
00:49:16.919 --> 00:49:18.949
that is a much safer direction to go in.
1977
00:49:19.320 --> 00:49:21.540
72% no
1978
00:49:21.719 --> 00:49:24.239
is far too low on Pedro Pascal.
1979
00:49:24.360 --> 00:49:24.439
Yeah,
1980
00:49:24.590 --> 00:49:25.520
because I mean you're looking at what,
1981
00:49:25.600 --> 00:49:27.520
33% profit.
1982
00:49:27.610 --> 00:49:28.270
On your money,
1983
00:49:28.489 --> 00:49:28.719
uh,
1984
00:49:28.800 --> 00:49:28.959
uh,
1985
00:49:29.330 --> 00:49:29.409
right,
1986
00:49:29.530 --> 00:49:29.610
right,
1987
00:49:29.719 --> 00:49:29.810
yeah,
1988
00:49:29.919 --> 00:49:30.090
20,
1989
00:49:30.209 --> 00:49:30.250
yeah,
1990
00:49:30.330 --> 00:49:30.729
70,
1991
00:49:30.909 --> 00:49:31.729
you'd be 28%,
1992
00:49:31.810 --> 00:49:31.929
yeah,
1993
00:49:32.250 --> 00:49:32.360
about,
1994
00:49:32.570 --> 00:49:33.189
about a third
1995
00:49:33.370 --> 00:49:33.850
profit
1996
00:49:34.050 --> 00:49:34.689
on your money in,
1997
00:49:34.750 --> 00:49:35.429
in a couple of months,
1998
00:49:35.510 --> 00:49:36.340
and I honestly,
1999
00:49:36.370 --> 00:49:37.000
like I love it.
2000
00:49:37.080 --> 00:49:38.600
I might go bigger on it after talking to you,
2001
00:49:38.689 --> 00:49:38.850
Steven,
2002
00:49:38.929 --> 00:49:40.260
I might go bigger on that position.
2003
00:49:40.570 --> 00:49:41.129
So if I,
2004
00:49:41.209 --> 00:49:41.330
you know,
2005
00:49:41.409 --> 00:49:42.810
if I can't pay my mortgage next month,
2006
00:49:42.889 --> 00:49:44.350
that's really your fault.
2007
00:49:44.679 --> 00:49:44.800
Uh,
2008
00:49:44.860 --> 00:49:44.879
I,
2009
00:49:45.010 --> 00:49:45.729
as I said,
2010
00:49:45.919 --> 00:49:46.090
uh,
2011
00:49:46.290 --> 00:49:47.739
personal responsibility is dead.
2012
00:49:47.889 --> 00:49:48.110
So,
2013
00:49:48.209 --> 00:49:48.550
uh,
2014
00:49:48.770 --> 00:49:49.449
we're gonna move that way.
2015
00:49:49.649 --> 00:49:49.659
Uh,
2016
00:49:49.689 --> 00:49:50.050
Steven Kat,
2017
00:49:50.159 --> 00:49:51.770
media director for the Consumer Choice,
2018
00:49:51.800 --> 00:49:52.000
uh,
2019
00:49:52.010 --> 00:49:52.469
Center.
2020
00:49:52.820 --> 00:49:53.030
Uh,
2021
00:49:53.139 --> 00:49:53.790
and so many more,
2022
00:49:54.040 --> 00:49:54.310
by the way,
2023
00:49:54.389 --> 00:49:55.909
if you haven't read his Star Wars book,
2024
00:49:56.030 --> 00:49:56.310
it was,
2025
00:49:56.389 --> 00:49:56.580
it's,
2026
00:49:56.590 --> 00:49:56.820
uh,
2027
00:49:56.830 --> 00:49:57.020
how,
2028
00:49:57.189 --> 00:49:57.909
I mean you had a couple,
2029
00:49:57.989 --> 00:50:00.270
but How the Force Can Fix the World Lessons on Life,
2030
00:50:00.350 --> 00:50:00.639
liberty,
2031
00:50:00.699 --> 00:50:01.989
and happiness from a Galaxy Far,
2032
00:50:02.070 --> 00:50:02.379
far away.
2033
00:50:02.439 --> 00:50:03.600
If you love Star Wars,
2034
00:50:03.610 --> 00:50:03.709
Stu,
2035
00:50:03.739 --> 00:50:04.050
real quick,
2036
00:50:04.070 --> 00:50:04.469
if I may,
2037
00:50:04.550 --> 00:50:06.340
I got a new book coming out this December.
2038
00:50:06.389 --> 00:50:07.590
It's called Great Escape,
2039
00:50:07.689 --> 00:50:09.350
30 Reflections on Stoicism,
2040
00:50:09.469 --> 00:50:09.669
Faith,
2041
00:50:09.689 --> 00:50:11.090
and the Wisdom of Great Stories.
2042
00:50:11.389 --> 00:50:11.510
Uh,
2043
00:50:11.629 --> 00:50:14.500
so go over to geeky stoics.com and you can learn all about it.
2044
00:50:14.750 --> 00:50:15.949
G Geeky Stoics.com,
2045
00:50:16.110 --> 00:50:17.229
perfect place to find Stephen Kent.
2046
00:50:17.389 --> 00:50:17.590
Steven,
2047
00:50:17.659 --> 00:50:18.020
thanks so much,
2048
00:50:18.070 --> 00:50:18.229
man.
2049
00:50:18.270 --> 00:50:18.939
I appreciate it.
2050
00:50:19.149 --> 00:50:19.989
We'll talk to you soon.
2051
00:50:20.560 --> 00:50:20.929
Thanks.
2052
00:50:21.080 --> 00:50:21.320
All right,
2053
00:50:21.429 --> 00:50:21.760
uh,
2054
00:50:21.840 --> 00:50:22.739
that's it for the show today.
2055
00:50:22.840 --> 00:50:23.159
Um,
2056
00:50:23.280 --> 00:50:23.469
we,
2057
00:50:23.540 --> 00:50:24.429
uh,
2058
00:50:24.560 --> 00:50:24.689
that was,
2059
00:50:24.800 --> 00:50:25.639
that was a lot of fun today.
2060
00:50:25.790 --> 00:50:25.870
Uh,
2061
00:50:25.919 --> 00:50:26.310
I want to,
2062
00:50:26.360 --> 00:50:26.639
uh,
2063
00:50:26.760 --> 00:50:28.899
thank Steven for coming onto the program,
2064
00:50:29.000 --> 00:50:29.020
uh,
2065
00:50:29.030 --> 00:50:29.219
and,
2066
00:50:29.239 --> 00:50:29.620
uh,
2067
00:50:29.629 --> 00:50:31.620
convincing me to lay more of my money against,
2068
00:50:31.689 --> 00:50:31.800
uh,
2069
00:50:31.879 --> 00:50:32.639
Pedro Pascal.
2070
00:50:32.919 --> 00:50:33.030
Uh,
2071
00:50:33.080 --> 00:50:34.399
we'll have more coming up next week.
2072
00:50:34.479 --> 00:50:34.590
I,
2073
00:50:34.639 --> 00:50:35.270
I meant to mention,
2074
00:50:35.320 --> 00:50:35.600
by the way,
2075
00:50:35.739 --> 00:50:35.750
uh,
2076
00:50:35.919 --> 00:50:36.270
um,
2077
00:50:36.439 --> 00:50:36.620
that,
2078
00:50:36.719 --> 00:50:37.290
uh,
2079
00:50:37.300 --> 00:50:39.600
South Carolina is also the runoff next week.
2080
00:50:39.719 --> 00:50:40.300
So we have
2081
00:50:40.560 --> 00:50:41.179
South Carolina,
2082
00:50:41.439 --> 00:50:41.629
we have,
2083
00:50:41.709 --> 00:50:42.679
I think it's is it Oklahoma?
2084
00:50:42.770 --> 00:50:43.350
In South Carolina,
2085
00:50:43.389 --> 00:50:43.750
I don't know.
2086
00:50:43.820 --> 00:50:44.110
We'll get you,
2087
00:50:44.189 --> 00:50:45.510
we'll get you all the details on the elections.
2088
00:50:45.750 --> 00:50:47.350
There are still a few more primaries left,
2089
00:50:47.429 --> 00:50:47.689
so
2090
00:50:47.860 --> 00:50:48.790
some stuff to dive into.
2091
00:50:49.139 --> 00:50:49.679
Wanna remind you,
2092
00:50:49.750 --> 00:50:50.989
if you're interested in that sort of stuff,
2093
00:50:51.070 --> 00:50:52.530
we're gonna be covering those elections
2094
00:50:52.840 --> 00:50:54.419
live as the votes come out.
2095
00:50:54.500 --> 00:50:55.790
We will give you all my picks as
2096
00:50:55.790 --> 00:50:59.169
well as part of the PredictableShow.com premium tier.
2097
00:50:59.709 --> 00:51:00.679
We would love to have you there.
2098
00:51:00.770 --> 00:51:01.909
There's a bunch of great features.
2099
00:51:02.030 --> 00:51:04.110
You're not gonna regret that if you're trading in these markets,
2100
00:51:04.429 --> 00:51:04.729
especially.
2101
00:51:05.290 --> 00:51:05.429
Uh,
2102
00:51:05.530 --> 00:51:06.760
lots of great information as well.
2103
00:51:07.050 --> 00:51:07.409
And then,
2104
00:51:07.489 --> 00:51:07.729
uh,
2105
00:51:07.810 --> 00:51:08.959
in addition to that,
2106
00:51:09.090 --> 00:51:09.860
the free,
2107
00:51:09.889 --> 00:51:10.300
uh,
2108
00:51:10.330 --> 00:51:11.610
resource is available now too.
2109
00:51:11.729 --> 00:51:13.770
If you just wanna get started on prediction markets.
2110
00:51:13.850 --> 00:51:14.010
Uh,
2111
00:51:14.120 --> 00:51:15.570
we've got a digital resource for you
2112
00:51:15.709 --> 00:51:17.129
called Predictable 101.
2113
00:51:17.169 --> 00:51:18.149
We have videos coming
2114
00:51:18.449 --> 00:51:18.889
as well,
2115
00:51:18.969 --> 00:51:20.110
but if you go to
2116
00:51:20.250 --> 00:51:20.689
predictable.
2117
00:51:20.814 --> 00:51:21.415
Show.com.
2118
00:51:21.735 --> 00:51:23.044
Just put your email address in,
2119
00:51:23.215 --> 00:51:24.504
we'll email you this right away.
2120
00:51:24.574 --> 00:51:24.854
It's like,
2121
00:51:24.935 --> 00:51:25.054
yeah,
2122
00:51:25.314 --> 00:51:25.524
I don't know,
2123
00:51:25.534 --> 00:51:26.915
20 pages or so
2124
00:51:27.054 --> 00:51:28.655
of just kind of step by step stuff.
2125
00:51:28.804 --> 00:51:29.594
Everything from like,
2126
00:51:29.645 --> 00:51:29.735
I,
2127
00:51:29.814 --> 00:51:31.735
how do I sign up to an account and how do I fund it?
2128
00:51:32.094 --> 00:51:32.794
How do I trade?
2129
00:51:33.054 --> 00:51:33.455
What are these,
2130
00:51:33.495 --> 00:51:33.804
you know,
2131
00:51:34.294 --> 00:51:35.245
what are these features,
2132
00:51:35.455 --> 00:51:36.185
how do I use them?
2133
00:51:36.655 --> 00:51:40.135
Just all in there if you wanna get familiar and get started before uh we go
2134
00:51:40.135 --> 00:51:42.935
even deeper on that with the videos coming up here in the next few weeks.
2135
00:51:43.014 --> 00:51:43.304
So,
2136
00:51:43.534 --> 00:51:44.254
lots of stuff for you.
2137
00:51:44.334 --> 00:51:45.334
That's a free resource,
2138
00:51:45.534 --> 00:51:46.574
predictableShow.com.
2139
00:51:46.735 --> 00:51:49.475
Just give us your email and we will email right back to you.
2140
00:51:49.870 --> 00:51:49.979
Uh,
2141
00:51:50.000 --> 00:51:50.679
as soon as you do.
2142
00:51:50.790 --> 00:51:50.959
OK,
2143
00:51:51.040 --> 00:51:52.719
that's all the time we have for today.
2144
00:51:52.919 --> 00:51:53.929
We will talk to you,
2145
00:51:54.000 --> 00:51:54.189
uh,
2146
00:51:54.280 --> 00:51:54.949
next week.
2147
00:51:55.080 --> 00:51:55.399
Uh,
2148
00:51:55.479 --> 00:51:56.120
I'm gonna be,
2149
00:51:56.159 --> 00:51:56.550
uh,
2150
00:51:56.560 --> 00:51:57.149
traveling.
2151
00:51:57.320 --> 00:51:57.989
I'm gonna be doing,
2152
00:51:58.000 --> 00:51:58.540
uh,
2153
00:51:58.550 --> 00:51:59.669
the Gutfeld show,
2154
00:51:59.719 --> 00:51:59.989
uh,
2155
00:52:00.040 --> 00:52:00.260
on,
2156
00:52:00.320 --> 00:52:00.629
uh,
2157
00:52:00.639 --> 00:52:01.500
the Gutfeld show on,
2158
00:52:01.510 --> 00:52:02.060
uh,
2159
00:52:02.199 --> 00:52:02.659
Monday.
2160
00:52:03.000 --> 00:52:03.159
Uh,
2161
00:52:03.239 --> 00:52:03.959
so that's gonna be a lot of fun.
2162
00:52:04.000 --> 00:52:05.030
I'll be up in New York for that,
2163
00:52:05.080 --> 00:52:07.580
but we'll still be doing episodes of Predictable for you
2164
00:52:07.800 --> 00:52:08.260
all week.
2165
00:52:08.389 --> 00:52:09.179
Thanks so much for joining us.
2166
00:52:09.280 --> 00:52:09.870
We'll see you then.