FINAL Predictions and Market Analysis Before 2026 Midterms

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Ladies and gentlemen,
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you've made it.
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It is the last day before the midterms,
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and I've got some finalized predictions to share on the Senate,
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the gubernatorial races,
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the House races,
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all that stuff.
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I'll also tell you about a live,
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uh,
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thing we're gonna be doing tomorrow night to walk
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you through the entire election in real time.
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We have a new tool.
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I've created for you to follow it in real time
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and get better insight than you're gonna get from,
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you know,
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some of the networks.
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Uh,
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and of course,
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if you wanna secure some last-minute profits,
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we're here for you as well.
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All of that and more coming up on the final
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show
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of Predictable with Stu before the midterms.
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Join us at predictableshow.com.
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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We are 1 day away
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from the midterm elections.
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There's so much.
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This is such an interesting thing because it's not only
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about prediction markets and whether you can be profitable,
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or whether you can predict these things accurately,
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whether your Senate Fantasy.com team is doing well.
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It's a lot more than that because of course
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it's the future of our country and these things
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mean a lot.
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They mean a lot to me,
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they mean a lot to you.
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And one thing that we try to do on this show,
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which is very difficult for not only everyone in the audience,
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but also the host,
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is to try
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to do our best
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to take our heart out of our investing,
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right?
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We want to look toward these prediction markets and what we can do with elections,
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and take our rooting interests out of it.
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We root for the world that we want,
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we invest in the world that we have.
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And that's what we do here on Predictable with Stu.
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One day till the midterm elections.
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Let me just tell you quickly.
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What we're gonna be doing on election night.
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Cause you need to know this.
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We're gonna be talking for a very long time.
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I'm gonna be covering all this stuff for you.
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We've got coverage on Blaze TV.
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I'll be part of that coverage.
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We've got coverage on PredictableShow.com,
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which I'll be for most of the night.
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I,
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you know,
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I'll occasionally have to dip out for different things.
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I'm dipping out for uh a Megyn Kelly
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hit as well during the day.
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Uh,
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but generally speaking,
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we will have coverage for you
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from
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6:45
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p.m. Eastern time
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is when we start,
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6:45 p.m. Eastern Time.
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That'll give us a few minutes.
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To
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kind of preview,
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we'll do a little bit.
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Indiana and Kentucky are the first two states that close.
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We'll have maybe a little bit on that.
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But generally speaking,
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a little bit of time to preview all the big closing states at 7 o'clock,
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and then we'll take it from that
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as long as we can go and as long as there's interesting stuff to talk about.
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Now,
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we're not gonna know the
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Uh,
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final vote count in Alaska
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for like a month.
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So,
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we're not gonna be on for a straight month,
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but we're gonna do as best that we can,
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certainly until we can try to figure out control if that's possible,
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of the Senate and the House.
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That's gonna be a big part of our evening.
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Um,
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so join us there at YouTube.com/atpredictableshow,
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predictableshow.com.
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Lots of social media,
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uh,
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opportunities there,
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you know,
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I think we're gonna be on X,
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we'll be on,
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uh,
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probably Facebook and all the others.
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So,
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you can check us out in those places.
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We would love to have you hanging out as long as you possibly can.
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One of the things that we're going to do.
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Is
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give you,
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uh,
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opportunities and try to walk you through trading election night.
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Trading election night's a little bit different than prediction markets,
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generally speaking,
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because when you think about,
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uh,
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you're trying to predict who's gonna win the Senate,
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who's gonna win the House,
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if you're doing that in,
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you know,
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July.
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You're looking at the,
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the,
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the votes,
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you're looking at what you know about elections,
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you're trying to say,
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project a few months ahead of time,
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and then you're holding your position for a long time.
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Totally different than what you're doing on election night.
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Election night,
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the vote counts are coming out,
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they're moving.
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It's intense.
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Things are going up and down.
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You're trying to figure out which side of this should I be on.
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All that's really hard
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to figure out.
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I've done it for a long time.
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I still make mistakes to this day,
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and every year I try to come up with
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a better way of understanding what's about to happen.
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Because
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in a way,
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prediction markets aren't necessarily about giving predictions as the output.
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when you're on a prediction market and you're trading it,
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you're making a prediction.
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So prediction markets,
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really good name for them.
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What they give out is a number that,
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and we've shown this in academic studies for,
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you know,
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um,
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you know,
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that,
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that have spanned decades,
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honestly.
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That they are the best predictive tool that we have to look at these events.
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They're not always perfect,
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you don't get everything right.
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We here at Predictable show,
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very excited that we don't get everything right in prediction markets cause
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there would be no opportunities to make money if they did.
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There are some uh ups and downs.
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You try to look for those opportunities where things are mispriced
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as part of the game.
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But,
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in addition to that,
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it is important to understand that what essentially prediction markets are doing.
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It's not necessarily attempting to predict everything perfectly,
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that does happen a lot of times,
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but
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they're trying to distill
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all of human knowledge.
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Everybody who has a thought,
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who has an opinion,
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who has information,
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who's trying to understand things in a better way,
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who's done the research,
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is putting their money where their mouth is to come to some number,
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and that is why they're so effective,
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when it comes to prediction,
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because
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it's everybody.
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It's groupthink
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in a good way.
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It is,
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uh,
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the,
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the,
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the,
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the wisdom of crowds.
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This is something that has been shown and,
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you know,
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for a very long time to be successful,
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and now
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they're kind of at their,
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their peak.
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They're coming into your world in a different way.
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So,
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I think it's worth talking about these maybe
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in context of these prediction markets as,
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as we do on this show.
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I'll give you a couple of headlines from today,
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because if you happen to be a Republican,
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and if you happen to be a conservative,
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which,
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you know,
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many of you are.
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Uh,
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you've heard some bad news.
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And let me give you a little taste as to what we've heard over the past,
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uh,
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24 to 48 hours.
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I will say the news has not been good.
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That's a,
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that's a,
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and this might,
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this might illustrate that,
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this headline from
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the argument,
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Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel.
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It's a train.
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That,
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that's not a good headline,
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uh,
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for your electoral hopes.
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Now,
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of course,
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they can be wrong,
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polls can be wrong,
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people's opinions can be wrong,
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prediction markets can be wrong.
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The question is what's really gonna happen.
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Let me give you the latest polling from New York Times Sienna.
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They are very pessimistic on Republican chances.
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Final polls show a blue surge.
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Can we trust them?
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This comes from Nate Cohn.
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Now,
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I'll give you some details on how
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the New York Times Sienna polls have done in the past.
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It's important context,
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but this is what they're showing,
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and some of this is.
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Really bonker stuff,
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like outlier stuff we have not seen
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this entire election cycle,
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including most prominently,
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Michigan.
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El Sayed with an 11 point lead over Mike Rogers,
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uh,
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53 to 42
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in their last poll on that race.
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Texas shows a Tallarico lead,
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50 to 43 over Paxton.
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Maine shows a Jackson lead.
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51-45
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over Collins.
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Ohio shows a Sherrod Brown lead.
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You're hearing a,
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a little bit of a repetition here
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over John Husted,
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49 to 44.
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Kansas has Hamilton
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in Kansas,
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have not elected a Democratic senator senator since 1932.
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They have Hamilton up 49
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to 44.
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Mary Peltola.
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Actually,
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this is a pretty bad result,
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uh,
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for recent polling when it comes to Alaska.
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Peltola at 48,
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uh,
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Sullivan at 46,
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and finally,
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very,
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very close race,
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maybe the closest race in the country,
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Turk,
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48,
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Hinson,
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00:07:17.079 --> 00:07:17.709
47.
284
00:07:17.820 --> 00:07:17.950
Now,
285
00:07:18.019 --> 00:07:19.209
the New York Times Sienna pollster,
286
00:07:19.420 --> 00:07:20.010
are one,
287
00:07:20.179 --> 00:07:20.820
it's one poll.
288
00:07:21.440 --> 00:07:22.839
You should never just put your faith in one poll,
289
00:07:22.920 --> 00:07:24.720
you shouldn't put your faith in the average of polls either.
290
00:07:24.779 --> 00:07:26.100
It's just another input.
291
00:07:26.320 --> 00:07:27.359
As I say often,
292
00:07:27.799 --> 00:07:32.059
the right way to think about polling is not as a surgical instrument.
293
00:07:32.119 --> 00:07:33.459
It's not the type of thing that can
294
00:07:33.859 --> 00:07:35.720
dissect 10th of a point
295
00:07:35.959 --> 00:07:37.579
with all that much reliability.
296
00:07:37.880 --> 00:07:39.320
What they are are blunt instruments.
297
00:07:39.399 --> 00:07:40.679
They can tell you the tone of a race,
298
00:07:40.750 --> 00:07:41.920
they can tell you the general direction.
299
00:07:41.959 --> 00:07:43.140
There's a reason why we know
300
00:07:43.640 --> 00:07:46.200
the Rhode Island Senate race is not gonna be that close,
301
00:07:46.359 --> 00:07:47.450
and Iowa will be.
302
00:07:48.679 --> 00:07:50.679
Polling helps us determine that.
303
00:07:51.390 --> 00:07:53.470
It doesn't help us determine who's ahead,
304
00:07:53.510 --> 00:07:55.230
Turk or Hinson when you're seeing 48,
305
00:07:55.269 --> 00:07:56.049
47.
306
00:07:56.510 --> 00:07:56.769
Because
307
00:07:56.869 --> 00:07:57.350
if you're sitting there,
308
00:07:57.429 --> 00:07:57.670
oh gosh,
309
00:07:57.779 --> 00:07:58.510
the polls were wrong,
310
00:07:58.589 --> 00:08:00.390
they had Turria by 1 point and Hinson lost,
311
00:08:00.670 --> 00:08:00.869
the,
312
00:08:00.910 --> 00:08:02.109
the polls aren't really wrong.
313
00:08:02.230 --> 00:08:02.299
They,
314
00:08:02.350 --> 00:08:02.579
they're,
315
00:08:02.709 --> 00:08:04.399
there's very much within the margin of error,
316
00:08:04.510 --> 00:08:05.109
and there isn't a,
317
00:08:05.250 --> 00:08:06.970
an admitted understanding
318
00:08:07.230 --> 00:08:07.339
that,
319
00:08:07.429 --> 00:08:07.549
you know,
320
00:08:07.619 --> 00:08:08.880
polls are not gonna be perfect.
321
00:08:08.989 --> 00:08:10.220
When you see a close race like this,
322
00:08:10.299 --> 00:08:11.130
you should not
323
00:08:11.390 --> 00:08:11.690
take
324
00:08:11.829 --> 00:08:12.890
which side is winning it
325
00:08:13.079 --> 00:08:14.209
as a lock.
326
00:08:14.630 --> 00:08:14.790
Uh,
327
00:08:14.829 --> 00:08:15.859
that is not what you should do.
328
00:08:16.029 --> 00:08:16.149
Now,
329
00:08:16.230 --> 00:08:16.660
the Sienna,
330
00:08:16.790 --> 00:08:18.209
New York Times Sienna poll has had
331
00:08:18.799 --> 00:08:20.519
It's ups and downs over the years.
332
00:08:21.260 --> 00:08:22.109
As they point out,
333
00:08:22.420 --> 00:08:25.369
they've had two different cycles where Democrats were heavily favored
334
00:08:25.549 --> 00:08:26.220
previous to this,
335
00:08:26.299 --> 00:08:27.179
where they've done polling.
336
00:08:27.299 --> 00:08:28.359
2018,
337
00:08:28.579 --> 00:08:28.820
final,
338
00:08:28.940 --> 00:08:31.239
final polls show Democrats gaining across the board.
339
00:08:31.420 --> 00:08:32.409
That is what happened.
340
00:08:32.599 --> 00:08:32.619
Uh,
341
00:08:32.869 --> 00:08:32.890
this,
342
00:08:33.020 --> 00:08:33.250
the,
343
00:08:33.380 --> 00:08:33.390
the,
344
00:08:33.500 --> 00:08:33.849
in the end,
345
00:08:33.900 --> 00:08:36.349
the Times Sienna poll was basically dead on.
346
00:08:36.500 --> 00:08:37.679
It was a very good year
347
00:08:37.979 --> 00:08:38.609
for pollsters.
348
00:08:38.690 --> 00:08:39.840
They pretty much nailed
349
00:08:40.058 --> 00:08:41.099
that election in 2018.
350
00:08:41.260 --> 00:08:42.460
That was a midterm election.
351
00:08:42.700 --> 00:08:43.558
2020,
352
00:08:43.950 --> 00:08:45.849
not so much for the New York Times Sienna.
353
00:08:45.969 --> 00:08:48.280
They underestimated Donald Trump by 5 points.
354
00:08:48.539 --> 00:08:50.059
Obviously he wound up winning.
355
00:08:50.390 --> 00:08:50.710
Um,
356
00:08:50.789 --> 00:08:51.229
or excuse me,
357
00:08:51.309 --> 00:08:51.469
uh,
358
00:08:51.549 --> 00:08:51.710
uh,
359
00:08:51.909 --> 00:08:53.750
Biden wound up winning that election by by much
360
00:08:53.750 --> 00:08:55.729
less than they had projected in the polls.
361
00:08:58.630 --> 00:09:00.630
One thing that is interesting about pollsters,
362
00:09:01.030 --> 00:09:01.669
in that
363
00:09:02.229 --> 00:09:03.059
they are,
364
00:09:03.429 --> 00:09:04.989
there are some bad ones out there.
365
00:09:05.190 --> 00:09:05.750
As we've seen,
366
00:09:05.830 --> 00:09:06.770
there are some people
367
00:09:06.960 --> 00:09:08.669
who are faking polls completely.
368
00:09:08.739 --> 00:09:10.710
We've seen multiple uh examples of that,
369
00:09:10.719 --> 00:09:12.010
where there's faking the data.
370
00:09:12.549 --> 00:09:14.190
Sometimes they will do what's called herding,
371
00:09:14.270 --> 00:09:17.780
which is trying to fit their polls to the public perception
372
00:09:18.469 --> 00:09:20.979
because they don't wanna look like the crazy outlier,
373
00:09:21.070 --> 00:09:21.190
right?
374
00:09:21.260 --> 00:09:22.849
They don't wanna look like Ann Selzer
375
00:09:23.099 --> 00:09:23.349
in,
376
00:09:23.390 --> 00:09:25.039
in 2024 where she's predicting,
377
00:09:25.179 --> 00:09:25.309
you know,
378
00:09:25.390 --> 00:09:25.739
predicting that,
379
00:09:25.950 --> 00:09:26.250
uh,
380
00:09:26.770 --> 00:09:28.229
Kamala Harris is gonna win the state
381
00:09:28.489 --> 00:09:29.150
of Iowa,
382
00:09:29.169 --> 00:09:29.510
and then,
383
00:09:29.609 --> 00:09:29.729
you know,
384
00:09:29.849 --> 00:09:31.169
she winds up losing by 13 points.
385
00:09:31.369 --> 00:09:32.150
You don't wanna be her.
386
00:09:32.289 --> 00:09:32.489
She got,
387
00:09:32.609 --> 00:09:32.809
I mean,
388
00:09:32.969 --> 00:09:35.059
she literally was sued by the president over it,
389
00:09:35.130 --> 00:09:36.289
so you don't wanna be that person.
390
00:09:37.039 --> 00:09:37.789
So they'll herd,
391
00:09:37.869 --> 00:09:38.400
they'll get in the middle,
392
00:09:38.520 --> 00:09:38.679
oh,
393
00:09:38.780 --> 00:09:39.719
we're really close election,
394
00:09:39.799 --> 00:09:40.340
we're not sure,
395
00:09:40.400 --> 00:09:40.640
you know,
396
00:09:40.760 --> 00:09:42.299
and uh that doesn't serve anybody either.
397
00:09:43.750 --> 00:09:46.750
Pollsters though are incentivized to try to get these things right.
398
00:09:47.580 --> 00:09:47.979
Um,
399
00:09:48.140 --> 00:09:51.609
when you take out the outlier types that are really partisan,
400
00:09:51.739 --> 00:09:55.450
when you take out the outlier types that are truly just faking it,
401
00:09:55.650 --> 00:09:56.809
you got a bunch of people who are like,
402
00:09:56.900 --> 00:09:57.130
well,
403
00:09:57.340 --> 00:10:01.289
we don't get our private poll checks if we start missing these elections.
404
00:10:01.580 --> 00:10:03.719
These public polls that you and I hear about
405
00:10:03.900 --> 00:10:05.500
are essentially commercials for their business.
406
00:10:05.739 --> 00:10:05.900
Hey,
407
00:10:05.979 --> 00:10:07.789
we're good at figuring public opinion out.
408
00:10:08.020 --> 00:10:08.890
If we nail this election,
409
00:10:08.969 --> 00:10:10.729
they get lots of business behind the scenes from,
410
00:10:10.900 --> 00:10:11.049
from,
411
00:10:11.109 --> 00:10:11.260
you know,
412
00:10:11.380 --> 00:10:14.219
large companies and everything else to poll things that they care about.
413
00:10:15.940 --> 00:10:16.289
So,
414
00:10:16.299 --> 00:10:17.969
they are incentivized to change these things,
415
00:10:17.979 --> 00:10:18.140
and,
416
00:10:18.200 --> 00:10:20.080
and they do make changes over time.
417
00:10:20.580 --> 00:10:21.940
They're not always successful.
418
00:10:22.059 --> 00:10:22.780
2016,
419
00:10:22.859 --> 00:10:24.289
they missed the in the polls.
420
00:10:24.580 --> 00:10:25.380
And they came back and they said,
421
00:10:25.460 --> 00:10:25.619
OK,
422
00:10:25.739 --> 00:10:26.820
we figured out what that was.
423
00:10:26.890 --> 00:10:28.090
We had not adjusted for,
424
00:10:28.099 --> 00:10:28.599
um,
425
00:10:28.809 --> 00:10:29.640
education quality,
426
00:10:29.940 --> 00:10:30.159
um,
427
00:10:30.179 --> 00:10:31.049
or education levels,
428
00:10:31.140 --> 00:10:31.859
so now we've done that.
429
00:10:31.940 --> 00:10:33.169
Everything will be fine in 2020.
430
00:10:33.380 --> 00:10:34.900
You'll be surprised to hear that was not the truth.
431
00:10:34.979 --> 00:10:36.559
They missed actually by more
432
00:10:36.739 --> 00:10:38.400
in 2020 than they did in 2016,
433
00:10:38.979 --> 00:10:39.969
even though they got the,
434
00:10:40.140 --> 00:10:40.799
the outcome,
435
00:10:41.020 --> 00:10:41.650
uh,
436
00:10:41.659 --> 00:10:42.080
correct.
437
00:10:42.979 --> 00:10:44.000
They missed by even more.
438
00:10:44.570 --> 00:10:45.140
2024,
439
00:10:45.260 --> 00:10:45.890
they missed by less,
440
00:10:45.960 --> 00:10:47.059
but they still missed the same way,
441
00:10:47.140 --> 00:10:48.200
all three times
442
00:10:48.489 --> 00:10:49.349
against Donald Trump.
443
00:10:49.690 --> 00:10:53.090
It's important to note that the midterms in between polling did very,
444
00:10:53.140 --> 00:10:53.650
very well.
445
00:10:53.900 --> 00:10:56.880
So this may be a unique Donald Trump problem to some degree.
446
00:10:57.840 --> 00:10:59.539
The other thing is they have,
447
00:10:59.760 --> 00:11:04.539
they will make adjustments in between years to try to fix themselves.
448
00:11:05.039 --> 00:11:05.659
Um,
449
00:11:06.119 --> 00:11:06.479
they,
450
00:11:06.599 --> 00:11:06.750
you know,
451
00:11:06.799 --> 00:11:07.000
it's,
452
00:11:07.039 --> 00:11:07.390
it's,
453
00:11:07.400 --> 00:11:07.979
uh,
454
00:11:08.320 --> 00:11:08.440
I,
455
00:11:08.520 --> 00:11:11.919
I'd hate to say it's like the Philadelphia Eagles at halftime this year when
456
00:11:11.919 --> 00:11:15.299
they go into halftime doing nothing and then come out and do even worse.
457
00:11:15.559 --> 00:11:15.679
Uh,
458
00:11:15.719 --> 00:11:16.520
it could be that way.
459
00:11:16.640 --> 00:11:18.700
That's kind of what happened from 2016 to 2020.
460
00:11:18.919 --> 00:11:19.049
Uh,
461
00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:20.679
COVID may be a factor there as well.
462
00:11:21.210 --> 00:11:21.640
But
463
00:11:21.890 --> 00:11:23.210
if you go into this and you're saying,
464
00:11:23.289 --> 00:11:23.489
OK,
465
00:11:23.609 --> 00:11:24.650
we see what we did wrong,
466
00:11:24.760 --> 00:11:25.880
we see how we missed,
467
00:11:26.239 --> 00:11:28.650
we better improve that or no one's gonna listen to us next time.
468
00:11:29.679 --> 00:11:30.900
The New York Times did this,
469
00:11:31.030 --> 00:11:33.900
and they actually talk about the adjustments they made.
470
00:11:34.119 --> 00:11:38.789
They made changes in how they weighted individual polling participants.
471
00:11:39.000 --> 00:11:40.640
This is no longer the day where you can just call a bunch
472
00:11:40.640 --> 00:11:44.219
of random phone numbers in the phone book and get random results.
473
00:11:44.840 --> 00:11:45.299
Why?
474
00:11:46.479 --> 00:11:47.479
Nobody answers the phone,
475
00:11:47.719 --> 00:11:49.200
especially Republicans and conservatives.
476
00:11:49.320 --> 00:11:49.960
So if you do that,
477
00:11:50.039 --> 00:11:51.549
you wind up with the results that are terrible.
478
00:11:51.919 --> 00:11:55.669
What they do is try to fit those results into what they know about demographics,
479
00:11:55.750 --> 00:11:55.919
uh,
480
00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:58.059
certain percentages of different racial groups,
481
00:11:58.239 --> 00:11:58.510
uh,
482
00:11:58.599 --> 00:11:59.460
gender groups,
483
00:11:59.500 --> 00:11:59.880
and,
484
00:12:00.159 --> 00:12:00.390
um,
485
00:12:00.469 --> 00:12:02.960
another one is they use a lot of times is called recall vote.
486
00:12:03.229 --> 00:12:03.359
Uh,
487
00:12:03.440 --> 00:12:04.479
recall vote is basically.
488
00:12:04.924 --> 00:12:05.044
Hey,
489
00:12:05.114 --> 00:12:06.385
who'd you vote for in 2024?
490
00:12:06.724 --> 00:12:06.835
Well,
491
00:12:06.885 --> 00:12:07.945
we know what the real number was,
492
00:12:08.044 --> 00:12:08.205
right?
493
00:12:08.354 --> 00:12:10.114
Donald Trump won in a slight majority.
494
00:12:10.405 --> 00:12:10.604
Um,
495
00:12:10.645 --> 00:12:10.844
OK,
496
00:12:10.965 --> 00:12:11.005
well,
497
00:12:11.075 --> 00:12:11.325
let's,
498
00:12:11.405 --> 00:12:13.385
let's make sure that the voters we have today
499
00:12:14.164 --> 00:12:17.544
all say that that's about the percentage that they did for Trump.
500
00:12:17.965 --> 00:12:18.614
Problem with that is,
501
00:12:18.674 --> 00:12:18.924
of course,
502
00:12:19.044 --> 00:12:20.315
people lie to the pollsters.
503
00:12:20.325 --> 00:12:21.205
They say that they did,
504
00:12:21.284 --> 00:12:22.844
they voted for one person that they didn't,
505
00:12:23.125 --> 00:12:24.974
and it's hard to get those people on the phone.
506
00:12:26.150 --> 00:12:28.340
So they changed their weighting procedures over here.
507
00:12:28.630 --> 00:12:31.549
That poll that I just gave you is the new weighted procedures.
508
00:12:32.619 --> 00:12:34.580
They told us what would have happened
509
00:12:34.760 --> 00:12:36.409
if they use the old ones.
510
00:12:36.739 --> 00:12:38.659
So the old procedures that they had,
511
00:12:39.140 --> 00:12:39.539
Michigan,
512
00:12:39.619 --> 00:12:41.219
which was a Democrat + 11,
513
00:12:41.289 --> 00:12:42.340
El Sayed + 11,
514
00:12:42.619 --> 00:12:43.119
turns into
515
00:12:43.929 --> 00:12:45.219
Democrats plus 16.
516
00:12:46.309 --> 00:12:47.190
Alaska,
517
00:12:47.869 --> 00:12:47.880
we,
518
00:12:47.989 --> 00:12:49.809
we saw a Democrat +1,
519
00:12:50.109 --> 00:12:51.669
would be Democrat + 6,
520
00:12:51.780 --> 00:12:52.590
a 5-point gap.
521
00:12:52.710 --> 00:12:53.150
Iowa,
522
00:12:53.229 --> 00:12:54.109
a 3-point gap,
523
00:12:54.349 --> 00:12:54.789
Kansas,
524
00:12:54.869 --> 00:12:55.869
a 5-point gap,
525
00:12:56.150 --> 00:12:56.409
Maine,
526
00:12:56.429 --> 00:12:57.469
a 1 point gap,
527
00:12:57.700 --> 00:12:58.229
Ohio,
528
00:12:58.309 --> 00:12:59.380
a 5-point gap,
529
00:12:59.630 --> 00:13:00.229
and Texas,
530
00:13:00.299 --> 00:13:01.150
a 2-point gap.
531
00:13:01.380 --> 00:13:03.390
All of those with the exception of Maine.
532
00:13:04.570 --> 00:13:07.409
Actually moved against Republicans and toward Democrats.
533
00:13:08.479 --> 00:13:08.890
So
534
00:13:09.789 --> 00:13:10.349
Uh,
535
00:13:10.919 --> 00:13:11.469
you know,
536
00:13:11.830 --> 00:13:12.210
look,
537
00:13:12.419 --> 00:13:13.830
this is just to set the scene for you.
538
00:13:14.669 --> 00:13:15.489
What does this mean?
539
00:13:15.820 --> 00:13:16.869
Should we believe this stuff?
540
00:13:16.950 --> 00:13:17.150
I mean,
541
00:13:17.229 --> 00:13:17.830
I think
542
00:13:17.989 --> 00:13:18.969
it's very
543
00:13:19.789 --> 00:13:20.219
normal,
544
00:13:20.469 --> 00:13:20.929
natural,
545
00:13:20.950 --> 00:13:23.349
and intelligent to have a healthy skepticism on these things,
546
00:13:23.429 --> 00:13:24.570
but I thought it'd be worth looking
547
00:13:24.789 --> 00:13:26.289
at the prediction market data because
548
00:13:26.429 --> 00:13:28.229
this is something we're getting that's a little bit more refined.
549
00:13:28.309 --> 00:13:30.190
There's no agenda in prediction market data.
550
00:13:30.270 --> 00:13:31.150
I know a lot of people say,
551
00:13:31.239 --> 00:13:31.349
well,
552
00:13:31.469 --> 00:13:31.590
gosh,
553
00:13:31.630 --> 00:13:32.590
it can be manipulated.
554
00:13:32.659 --> 00:13:33.349
We've covered that before,
555
00:13:33.390 --> 00:13:34.289
I won't go into it now.
556
00:13:35.039 --> 00:13:35.530
But what I,
557
00:13:35.650 --> 00:13:36.409
what I would say is,
558
00:13:36.489 --> 00:13:37.880
it's people's money where their mouth is,
559
00:13:37.929 --> 00:13:39.409
and when they're big markets that are very,
560
00:13:39.530 --> 00:13:40.049
very liquid,
561
00:13:40.119 --> 00:13:40.409
it's,
562
00:13:40.530 --> 00:13:40.679
you know,
563
00:13:40.809 --> 00:13:43.469
it just costs so much money to even try to manipulate them and
564
00:13:43.890 --> 00:13:45.869
they would bounce back almost immediately from traders.
565
00:13:47.900 --> 00:13:50.390
Calshi is just something that I think is really valuable here,
566
00:13:50.510 --> 00:13:52.210
which is to kind of set the scene
567
00:13:52.419 --> 00:13:55.729
with a combination of different effects and describing them,
568
00:13:56.030 --> 00:13:56.340
um,
569
00:13:56.380 --> 00:13:56.630
in,
570
00:13:56.750 --> 00:13:56.989
you know,
571
00:13:57.229 --> 00:13:58.590
terms we're all familiar with.
572
00:13:59.640 --> 00:14:02.479
They have contracts for things like the red wave or the blue wave,
573
00:14:02.679 --> 00:14:05.559
and you could see what the percentage of likelihood of those things are.
574
00:14:05.799 --> 00:14:06.320
Now you might say,
575
00:14:06.400 --> 00:14:07.229
I doubt the polls,
576
00:14:07.280 --> 00:14:08.000
I think they're fake.
577
00:14:08.119 --> 00:14:08.669
I think,
578
00:14:08.679 --> 00:14:08.900
uh,
579
00:14:08.909 --> 00:14:10.280
all this media coverage is BS.
580
00:14:10.400 --> 00:14:11.119
Whatever you think.
581
00:14:11.900 --> 00:14:14.169
Realize that if you do believe that,
582
00:14:14.299 --> 00:14:16.780
there are opportunities for you on these markets.
583
00:14:16.859 --> 00:14:17.739
If you think
584
00:14:17.979 --> 00:14:19.979
that a red wave is coming and everyone's lying to you,
585
00:14:20.059 --> 00:14:20.900
if that happens,
586
00:14:21.059 --> 00:14:21.820
you can make a ton of money.
587
00:14:21.900 --> 00:14:22.820
Let me give you an example of this.
588
00:14:22.979 --> 00:14:24.739
There's a red wave contract on Calci.
589
00:14:25.099 --> 00:14:27.179
This red wave consists of just two measures.
590
00:14:27.500 --> 00:14:30.380
Will Republicans hold 220 House seats,
591
00:14:30.460 --> 00:14:31.320
so a very
592
00:14:31.900 --> 00:14:32.659
small majority,
593
00:14:32.739 --> 00:14:34.000
basically what they have now,
594
00:14:34.270 --> 00:14:36.179
and will they get to 55 Senate seats?
595
00:14:36.219 --> 00:14:37.419
They currently have 53.
596
00:14:37.710 --> 00:14:39.299
If you can check both of those boxes,
597
00:14:39.619 --> 00:14:41.539
it is counted as a red wave.
598
00:14:41.840 --> 00:14:44.039
What do the markets believe is a chance of this?
599
00:14:44.080 --> 00:14:46.140
This is a pretty normal year,
600
00:14:46.400 --> 00:14:46.580
right?
601
00:14:46.679 --> 00:14:47.320
You hold,
602
00:14:47.400 --> 00:14:48.630
you basically stay the same.
603
00:14:48.880 --> 00:14:50.020
Stay the same in the house,
604
00:14:50.640 --> 00:14:53.520
add a couple seats in the Senate in a map that pretty much favors you.
605
00:14:53.599 --> 00:14:54.530
What are the chances of that?
606
00:14:54.799 --> 00:14:56.469
4.5%,
607
00:14:57.000 --> 00:14:58.429
4.5%.
608
00:14:59.169 --> 00:14:59.409
Now,
609
00:14:59.650 --> 00:14:59.989
they
610
00:15:00.210 --> 00:15:03.929
at Calci have different markets for different levels of what could happen here.
611
00:15:04.020 --> 00:15:04.330
So you have,
612
00:15:04.369 --> 00:15:04.650
that's the,
613
00:15:04.729 --> 00:15:05.770
that's the side on the red.
614
00:15:06.049 --> 00:15:08.070
Let's go to the blue side for a little bit.
615
00:15:08.330 --> 00:15:10.080
A blue trickle is the next one.
616
00:15:10.409 --> 00:15:10.869
Will
617
00:15:11.210 --> 00:15:12.989
Democrats get 215+ seats?
618
00:15:13.059 --> 00:15:14.369
That means if they got 215,
619
00:15:14.450 --> 00:15:15.950
they would not control even the House.
620
00:15:16.369 --> 00:15:18.190
Will they get to 215 in the House,
621
00:15:18.609 --> 00:15:18.770
uh,
622
00:15:18.849 --> 00:15:19.429
or more?
623
00:15:19.809 --> 00:15:21.729
And will they get 48 Senate seats?
624
00:15:21.849 --> 00:15:22.609
So again,
625
00:15:23.289 --> 00:15:23.299
uh,
626
00:15:23.369 --> 00:15:24.809
they gain some,
627
00:15:24.929 --> 00:15:25.409
uh,
628
00:15:25.609 --> 00:15:26.039
some,
629
00:15:26.130 --> 00:15:26.280
uh,
630
00:15:26.369 --> 00:15:26.559
you know,
631
00:15:26.609 --> 00:15:27.469
a little bit here.
632
00:15:27.890 --> 00:15:28.109
Um,
633
00:15:28.169 --> 00:15:29.640
but they don't necessarily,
634
00:15:29.979 --> 00:15:30.210
uh,
635
00:15:30.219 --> 00:15:31.239
overwhelm
636
00:15:31.619 --> 00:15:33.409
with the possibility here of a,
637
00:15:33.419 --> 00:15:33.650
uh,
638
00:15:33.659 --> 00:15:34.690
on the blue trickle side.
639
00:15:34.940 --> 00:15:35.049
Uh,
640
00:15:35.109 --> 00:15:35.250
the,
641
00:15:35.299 --> 00:15:35.820
the,
642
00:15:35.979 --> 00:15:37.229
the answer there is,
643
00:15:37.299 --> 00:15:37.770
uh,
644
00:15:38.059 --> 00:15:39.190
95%,
645
00:15:39.219 --> 00:15:40.020
they will get to that level.
646
00:15:40.130 --> 00:15:41.210
215 House seats,
647
00:15:41.340 --> 00:15:42.409
48 Senate seats.
648
00:15:42.659 --> 00:15:43.320
Next one is the blue.
649
00:15:44.020 --> 00:15:46.950
Blue Wave says 218 House seats,
650
00:15:47.289 --> 00:15:47.450
uh,
651
00:15:47.530 --> 00:15:48.719
which would be control of the House.
652
00:15:48.789 --> 00:15:49.479
So basically,
653
00:15:49.650 --> 00:15:52.770
they win the control of the House and they get to 49 Senate seats.
654
00:15:52.849 --> 00:15:54.510
So they could still not get control
655
00:15:54.880 --> 00:15:57.169
of the Senate with either 49 seats or 50,
656
00:15:57.409 --> 00:15:59.030
because JD Vance would come in on that one.
657
00:15:59.690 --> 00:16:01.400
so that is 49 Senate seats,
658
00:16:01.650 --> 00:16:03.119
218 House seats.
659
00:16:03.320 --> 00:16:03.770
The number there,
660
00:16:03.849 --> 00:16:07.070
an 87.5% chance
661
00:16:07.460 --> 00:16:08.369
for that to happen.
662
00:16:09.119 --> 00:16:09.440
Again,
663
00:16:09.539 --> 00:16:10.460
if you think
664
00:16:10.679 --> 00:16:11.719
one of these levels is wrong,
665
00:16:11.760 --> 00:16:12.960
you have real opportunity,
666
00:16:13.200 --> 00:16:15.340
real upside if you think Republicans are gonna do better.
667
00:16:15.640 --> 00:16:16.880
If you think Democrats are gonna do better,
668
00:16:16.960 --> 00:16:19.119
you can go to the blue tsunami contract.
669
00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:21.619
This gets you to 235
670
00:16:21.840 --> 00:16:22.609
House seats
671
00:16:22.719 --> 00:16:24.950
and 51+ Senate seats.
672
00:16:25.200 --> 00:16:27.179
There's a 66% chance
673
00:16:27.559 --> 00:16:29.020
of that happening according
674
00:16:29.440 --> 00:16:29.840
to Kelsey.
675
00:16:29.909 --> 00:16:31.150
And look at the movement here,
676
00:16:31.239 --> 00:16:32.359
if we could for just a minute.
677
00:16:32.440 --> 00:16:34.000
Can you zoom into a month for me,
678
00:16:34.109 --> 00:16:34.320
Adam,
679
00:16:34.349 --> 00:16:34.900
on this one?
680
00:16:35.190 --> 00:16:35.369
Um,
681
00:16:35.520 --> 00:16:35.950
right now,
682
00:16:35.960 --> 00:16:36.400
it is at,
683
00:16:36.440 --> 00:16:36.710
uh,
684
00:16:36.719 --> 00:16:38.539
64.8% chance to happen.
685
00:16:38.989 --> 00:16:40.020
If you go back to
686
00:16:40.479 --> 00:16:42.080
like mid to late October,
687
00:16:42.390 --> 00:16:44.159
we're talking about a fifty-fifty proposition.
688
00:16:44.859 --> 00:16:45.479
Um,
689
00:16:45.739 --> 00:16:46.369
maybe a little bit,
690
00:16:46.500 --> 00:16:46.580
uh,
691
00:16:46.700 --> 00:16:46.820
sorry,
692
00:16:46.969 --> 00:16:47.099
uh,
693
00:16:47.169 --> 00:16:47.659
late October,
694
00:16:47.700 --> 00:16:50.119
October 25th in that range and that those little bottoms there.
695
00:16:50.450 --> 00:16:50.780
Um.
696
00:16:51.820 --> 00:16:52.960
Under 50% chance
697
00:16:53.460 --> 00:16:54.539
on October 24th,
698
00:16:54.590 --> 00:16:56.299
which you may know was just over a week ago.
699
00:16:56.409 --> 00:16:58.369
That's how good the polls have been at the end
700
00:16:58.900 --> 00:17:00.000
of this cycle
701
00:17:00.260 --> 00:17:00.940
for Democrats.
702
00:17:01.020 --> 00:17:03.219
They have been legitimately really good.
703
00:17:03.260 --> 00:17:04.079
And one of my
704
00:17:04.500 --> 00:17:06.410
thoughts here was as we get closer to the election,
705
00:17:06.500 --> 00:17:07.739
we'd start seeing progress,
706
00:17:08.010 --> 00:17:08.140
uh,
707
00:17:08.260 --> 00:17:09.959
for Republicans in some of these polls
708
00:17:10.579 --> 00:17:11.368
that was,
709
00:17:11.780 --> 00:17:12.780
had some truth to it.
710
00:17:12.858 --> 00:17:12.969
You,
711
00:17:13.030 --> 00:17:15.459
you see it kind of coming down from 60 to 50.
712
00:17:15.719 --> 00:17:19.569
But it has bounced back the other way and now it's 64.8% chance for the blue tsunami.
713
00:17:19.640 --> 00:17:19.910
If you think,
714
00:17:19.949 --> 00:17:20.108
OK,
715
00:17:20.199 --> 00:17:20.239
well,
716
00:17:20.280 --> 00:17:20.949
that's a blue tsunami,
717
00:17:21.000 --> 00:17:22.040
that's as good as it can get for Democrats.
718
00:17:22.118 --> 00:17:22.199
No,
719
00:17:22.319 --> 00:17:22.699
no.
720
00:17:23.239 --> 00:17:24.380
Calci also has a blue
721
00:17:25.079 --> 00:17:26.729
mega tsunami contract.
722
00:17:26.839 --> 00:17:27.040
Yes,
723
00:17:27.199 --> 00:17:28.939
the blue mega tsunami.
724
00:17:29.650 --> 00:17:30.079
This is,
725
00:17:30.280 --> 00:17:33.180
will they get to 240+ seats
726
00:17:33.599 --> 00:17:35.400
and 54 Senate seats?
727
00:17:35.479 --> 00:17:36.459
Is that possible?
728
00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:37.800
It's possible.
729
00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:39.880
It's a 32% chance of happening.
730
00:17:39.959 --> 00:17:40.790
So you see,
731
00:17:41.040 --> 00:17:42.560
the markets believe.
732
00:17:43.189 --> 00:17:45.579
This is around where the level dries up.
733
00:17:46.109 --> 00:17:49.859
Somewhere between the blue tsunami and the blue mega tsunami
734
00:17:50.069 --> 00:17:52.329
is where that fifty-fifty line is,
735
00:17:52.869 --> 00:17:54.869
probably towards the regular tsunami,
736
00:17:55.069 --> 00:17:55.630
not mega,
737
00:17:55.709 --> 00:17:56.910
and that's a technical term,
738
00:17:56.989 --> 00:17:57.569
as you know,
739
00:17:57.910 --> 00:17:58.890
mega tsunami,
740
00:17:59.270 --> 00:18:00.790
very technical breakdown.
741
00:18:01.660 --> 00:18:02.640
That is what
742
00:18:02.819 --> 00:18:03.540
they say,
743
00:18:03.699 --> 00:18:03.979
right?
744
00:18:04.219 --> 00:18:06.089
That is what the prediction markets say,
745
00:18:06.239 --> 00:18:07.540
that is what the pollsters say,
746
00:18:07.650 --> 00:18:08.810
that's what the analysts say.
747
00:18:09.560 --> 00:18:10.040
Well,
748
00:18:10.439 --> 00:18:11.400
what should we be thinking?
749
00:18:11.520 --> 00:18:12.229
What do I think?
750
00:18:12.479 --> 00:18:12.640
I mean,
751
00:18:12.680 --> 00:18:13.520
I'm going to election night.
752
00:18:13.560 --> 00:18:13.959
I will tell you,
753
00:18:14.040 --> 00:18:14.319
I have,
754
00:18:14.359 --> 00:18:14.680
uh,
755
00:18:14.760 --> 00:18:14.959
you know,
756
00:18:15.079 --> 00:18:15.209
uh,
757
00:18:15.280 --> 00:18:16.550
a lot of money in prediction markets,
758
00:18:16.670 --> 00:18:16.790
uh,
759
00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:17.130
and,
760
00:18:17.180 --> 00:18:17.550
uh,
761
00:18:17.560 --> 00:18:18.010
I've been,
762
00:18:18.319 --> 00:18:21.280
I've had an increasing amount over a long period of time,
763
00:18:21.349 --> 00:18:21.900
over a decade.
764
00:18:22.510 --> 00:18:23.170
So,
765
00:18:23.630 --> 00:18:24.910
when you're talking about prediction markets,
766
00:18:24.979 --> 00:18:25.869
it's something I care about.
767
00:18:25.949 --> 00:18:26.689
I will be
768
00:18:26.949 --> 00:18:27.819
on election night,
769
00:18:27.989 --> 00:18:29.170
not only covering the election,
770
00:18:29.510 --> 00:18:30.650
but trading it with you.
771
00:18:30.829 --> 00:18:31.790
If you're gonna be trading,
772
00:18:32.069 --> 00:18:34.650
you can get on there and you can watch us do this in real-time.
773
00:18:34.939 --> 00:18:35.310
We'll,
774
00:18:35.420 --> 00:18:37.130
we'll walk you through the trades that we're making.
775
00:18:37.469 --> 00:18:39.489
We'll tell you what we think is gonna happen next.
776
00:18:39.589 --> 00:18:40.349
All the panic,
777
00:18:40.459 --> 00:18:40.949
all the,
778
00:18:41.140 --> 00:18:41.569
all the,
779
00:18:41.780 --> 00:18:42.060
uh,
780
00:18:42.069 --> 00:18:45.839
thrill of victory and the agony of defeat of defeat will be on display.
781
00:18:46.229 --> 00:18:47.300
On election night.
782
00:18:47.380 --> 00:18:47.500
Again,
783
00:18:47.619 --> 00:18:49.420
starting at 6:45 Eastern
784
00:18:49.619 --> 00:18:53.599
on the YouTube.com/atpredictableshow
785
00:18:54.099 --> 00:18:56.040
page as well as predictableshow.com.
786
00:18:56.099 --> 00:18:57.530
I think we'll be on X Facebook as well.
787
00:18:57.660 --> 00:18:58.180
Join us
788
00:18:58.380 --> 00:18:59.410
there because it's gonna be a lot of fun.
789
00:18:59.459 --> 00:19:00.079
I'm gonna come back,
790
00:19:00.300 --> 00:19:02.260
I'm gonna walk you through where I think the Senate is,
791
00:19:02.420 --> 00:19:03.520
and where I think it's going.
792
00:19:03.739 --> 00:19:04.819
We'll give you a house number,
793
00:19:04.900 --> 00:19:06.800
we'll give you some gubernatorial picks as well.
794
00:19:07.270 --> 00:19:09.890
It's all coming up on our last show
795
00:19:09.890 --> 00:19:12.979
before the midterm elections and our election coverage
796
00:19:13.189 --> 00:19:13.680
kicks off.
797
00:19:13.880 --> 00:19:15.280
Join us as a premium subscriber,
798
00:19:15.390 --> 00:19:16.199
get all the tools.
799
00:19:16.400 --> 00:19:16.550
We have,
800
00:19:16.880 --> 00:19:17.359
as I mentioned,
801
00:19:17.400 --> 00:19:20.339
a brand new tool for election night that I think you're really gonna like.
802
00:19:20.560 --> 00:19:22.189
If you're trading these markets at all.
803
00:19:22.359 --> 00:19:23.680
Just join us at predictableShow.com.
804
00:19:23.719 --> 00:19:24.430
If you're a trader,
805
00:19:24.609 --> 00:19:26.520
if you are just interested in these elections,
806
00:19:26.560 --> 00:19:27.520
like at a high level,
807
00:19:27.920 --> 00:19:29.400
you are going to find this,
808
00:19:29.479 --> 00:19:29.750
I think,
809
00:19:29.839 --> 00:19:31.089
to be certainly
810
00:19:31.319 --> 00:19:32.239
worth its money and,
811
00:19:32.280 --> 00:19:32.790
and very,
812
00:19:32.869 --> 00:19:33.660
very valuable
813
00:19:33.910 --> 00:19:34.979
to your portfolio.
814
00:19:35.069 --> 00:19:35.199
OK,
815
00:19:35.280 --> 00:19:35.810
we're gonna take a break.
816
00:19:35.869 --> 00:19:36.359
Back in a second.
817
00:19:53.140 --> 00:19:53.790
All right.
818
00:19:54.060 --> 00:19:54.849
Let's get to it.
819
00:19:55.170 --> 00:19:56.739
Let's figure it out right now together.
820
00:19:56.849 --> 00:19:57.780
The Senate is here.
821
00:19:57.859 --> 00:20:01.119
We have a tool that has been up for a while at predictableShow.com,
822
00:20:01.180 --> 00:20:02.300
that is just a Senate board.
823
00:20:02.420 --> 00:20:04.569
You can kind of drag the states around to see,
824
00:20:04.859 --> 00:20:05.020
hey,
825
00:20:05.099 --> 00:20:06.060
if these things happen,
826
00:20:06.180 --> 00:20:07.410
what will the Senate count be?
827
00:20:07.619 --> 00:20:08.819
I figured that's the easiest thing to do.
828
00:20:08.900 --> 00:20:10.050
It's at predictableShow.com,
829
00:20:10.140 --> 00:20:10.540
go check it out,
830
00:20:10.550 --> 00:20:11.400
it's a free tool.
831
00:20:11.699 --> 00:20:11.939
Um,
832
00:20:12.020 --> 00:20:12.280
but,
833
00:20:12.319 --> 00:20:12.619
uh,
834
00:20:12.699 --> 00:20:13.060
if you wanna,
835
00:20:13.140 --> 00:20:13.260
you know,
836
00:20:13.339 --> 00:20:14.219
make your own board,
837
00:20:14.250 --> 00:20:14.979
and you can send that out,
838
00:20:15.020 --> 00:20:16.849
there's a share button as well if you wanna do that.
839
00:20:17.260 --> 00:20:17.540
So,
840
00:20:18.119 --> 00:20:18.750
Um,
841
00:20:19.010 --> 00:20:19.680
here's where we are,
842
00:20:19.770 --> 00:20:21.949
and then let me show you where I have the board right now.
843
00:20:22.290 --> 00:20:22.930
This is,
844
00:20:23.089 --> 00:20:23.319
uh,
845
00:20:23.369 --> 00:20:24.310
a general idea,
846
00:20:24.530 --> 00:20:24.770
um,
847
00:20:24.890 --> 00:20:25.239
of,
848
00:20:25.329 --> 00:20:25.420
uh,
849
00:20:25.449 --> 00:20:27.109
we're gonna start kind of at the beginning here.
850
00:20:27.489 --> 00:20:28.089
You have a,
851
00:20:28.449 --> 00:20:30.010
the way we do this is solid Democrats,
852
00:20:30.170 --> 00:20:30.920
solid Republicans,
853
00:20:31.050 --> 00:20:32.130
then likely Democrats,
854
00:20:32.239 --> 00:20:33.189
likely Republicans,
855
00:20:33.530 --> 00:20:33.729
uh,
856
00:20:33.839 --> 00:20:35.569
a little bit less certain with lean Democrat,
857
00:20:35.689 --> 00:20:36.569
lean Republicans,
858
00:20:36.650 --> 00:20:37.369
and then toss up.
859
00:20:37.439 --> 00:20:38.849
Right now I threw a bunch of states in the toss-up
860
00:20:38.849 --> 00:20:40.410
so we can kind of walk through this as we go,
861
00:20:40.689 --> 00:20:41.020
um,
862
00:20:41.290 --> 00:20:41.479
to,
863
00:20:41.560 --> 00:20:41.680
uh,
864
00:20:41.689 --> 00:20:43.880
just show you where there's a ton of them in there,
865
00:20:43.969 --> 00:20:45.050
so I'll try to get to this fast.
866
00:20:45.699 --> 00:20:46.579
Long story short,
867
00:20:46.660 --> 00:20:46.979
we,
868
00:20:47.089 --> 00:20:47.369
uh,
869
00:20:47.459 --> 00:20:49.060
we're gonna start over just quickly,
870
00:20:49.420 --> 00:20:50.619
the solid Democratic states,
871
00:20:50.780 --> 00:20:51.219
Colorado,
872
00:20:51.339 --> 00:20:51.739
Delaware,
873
00:20:51.890 --> 00:20:52.319
Illinois,
874
00:20:52.420 --> 00:20:53.089
Massachusetts,
875
00:20:53.180 --> 00:20:53.660
New Jersey,
876
00:20:53.739 --> 00:20:54.359
New Mexico,
877
00:20:54.780 --> 00:20:55.180
Oregon,
878
00:20:55.300 --> 00:20:55.859
Rhode Island,
879
00:20:55.900 --> 00:20:56.579
and Virginia.
880
00:20:56.660 --> 00:20:58.599
I don't see any reason we're gonna see
881
00:20:59.060 --> 00:21:00.640
any drama on that side.
882
00:21:00.900 --> 00:21:02.300
On the solid Republican side,
883
00:21:02.369 --> 00:21:03.079
it's the same
884
00:21:03.380 --> 00:21:03.630
idea.
885
00:21:03.660 --> 00:21:05.959
I like these are the ones I think will be no real,
886
00:21:06.099 --> 00:21:06.589
uh,
887
00:21:06.699 --> 00:21:07.180
drama.
888
00:21:07.260 --> 00:21:07.410
Actually,
889
00:21:07.459 --> 00:21:07.739
you can put,
890
00:21:07.900 --> 00:21:10.219
put Montana in the likely Republican for a second
891
00:21:10.219 --> 00:21:11.420
cause I wanna talk about that for a second,
892
00:21:11.500 --> 00:21:11.819
Adam.
893
00:21:12.170 --> 00:21:12.449
Um,
894
00:21:12.530 --> 00:21:14.119
Adam's dragging these states around for me.
895
00:21:14.410 --> 00:21:14.579
Um,
896
00:21:14.660 --> 00:21:15.569
so in solid Republican,
897
00:21:15.640 --> 00:21:16.339
we'll leave Alaska,
898
00:21:16.439 --> 00:21:16.689
uh,
899
00:21:16.780 --> 00:21:17.260
Alabama,
900
00:21:17.410 --> 00:21:18.199
Arkansas,
901
00:21:19.739 --> 00:21:20.189
those state
902
00:21:20.380 --> 00:21:21.650
abbreviations always get me
903
00:21:22.020 --> 00:21:22.660
crossed up a little bit.
904
00:21:22.939 --> 00:21:23.449
Kentucky,
905
00:21:23.619 --> 00:21:24.209
Oklahoma,
906
00:21:24.500 --> 00:21:25.020
Wyoming,
907
00:21:25.209 --> 00:21:25.699
Tennessee,
908
00:21:25.780 --> 00:21:26.579
and West Virginia.
909
00:21:26.699 --> 00:21:26.859
OK,
910
00:21:26.969 --> 00:21:27.329
so that's,
911
00:21:27.339 --> 00:21:27.540
uh,
912
00:21:27.609 --> 00:21:27.900
where we are.
913
00:21:28.040 --> 00:21:28.050
Uh,
914
00:21:28.180 --> 00:21:31.280
let me talk about Montana briefly and what I did in the likely category here.
915
00:21:31.900 --> 00:21:33.459
All four of the states that you see there,
916
00:21:33.540 --> 00:21:35.020
which are as follows,
917
00:21:35.260 --> 00:21:35.369
uh,
918
00:21:35.439 --> 00:21:36.099
Idaho,
919
00:21:36.819 --> 00:21:37.459
Louisiana,
920
00:21:37.660 --> 00:21:38.140
Montana,
921
00:21:38.219 --> 00:21:39.020
and South Dakota,
922
00:21:39.140 --> 00:21:39.680
South Dakota.
923
00:21:39.819 --> 00:21:41.859
All four of those I expect to go Republican.
924
00:21:42.420 --> 00:21:45.099
Obviously they're in the likely Republican category for a reason.
925
00:21:45.180 --> 00:21:47.219
The reason I put them there and separate them from the
926
00:21:47.219 --> 00:21:51.500
solids is at the very fringe of the Democrat mega tsunami.
927
00:21:51.900 --> 00:21:53.739
These are states you could talk about.
928
00:21:54.020 --> 00:21:54.660
Louisiana,
929
00:21:54.739 --> 00:21:57.339
there was one poll from a Democratic pollster that showed this very,
930
00:21:57.449 --> 00:21:57.699
very close,
931
00:21:57.780 --> 00:21:58.520
I think tied.
932
00:21:58.819 --> 00:21:58.930
Uh,
933
00:21:59.099 --> 00:21:59.180
again,
934
00:21:59.260 --> 00:22:00.839
I expect Ludlow to win there,
935
00:22:01.050 --> 00:22:01.400
um,
936
00:22:01.699 --> 00:22:02.089
but,
937
00:22:02.300 --> 00:22:02.619
you know,
938
00:22:03.140 --> 00:22:04.260
the fringes of this,
939
00:22:04.380 --> 00:22:05.660
could there be an argument?
940
00:22:05.979 --> 00:22:06.219
Uh,
941
00:22:06.420 --> 00:22:06.770
maybe.
942
00:22:07.060 --> 00:22:07.579
Then you have,
943
00:22:07.650 --> 00:22:07.790
uh,
944
00:22:07.939 --> 00:22:09.880
3 other states I wanted to highlight for a reason,
945
00:22:09.930 --> 00:22:10.280
specifically,
946
00:22:10.500 --> 00:22:11.020
Idaho,
947
00:22:11.270 --> 00:22:11.890
Montana,
948
00:22:12.060 --> 00:22:12.979
and South Dakota.
949
00:22:13.310 --> 00:22:15.380
All three of those have been sort of,
950
00:22:15.459 --> 00:22:15.729
uh,
951
00:22:15.739 --> 00:22:18.420
victims of this Democratic thing they're trying to do,
952
00:22:18.530 --> 00:22:19.599
which is run fake,
953
00:22:19.699 --> 00:22:20.020
uh,
954
00:22:20.420 --> 00:22:22.239
Democrats or fake independents as
955
00:22:22.930 --> 00:22:24.380
fake Democrats as independents.
956
00:22:24.500 --> 00:22:24.589
Now,
957
00:22:24.660 --> 00:22:26.300
real Democrats running as fake independents.
958
00:22:26.339 --> 00:22:27.160
That's what I'm trying to say.
959
00:22:27.369 --> 00:22:27.489
Uh,
960
00:22:27.569 --> 00:22:27.939
they have,
961
00:22:28.020 --> 00:22:28.180
it's,
962
00:22:28.239 --> 00:22:29.219
it's similar to Nebraska,
963
00:22:29.329 --> 00:22:31.339
they have a candidate who is running as an independent,
964
00:22:31.380 --> 00:22:32.540
but is basically a Democrat.
965
00:22:32.910 --> 00:22:33.290
And
966
00:22:33.670 --> 00:22:34.150
because of that,
967
00:22:34.229 --> 00:22:36.300
the polling's really weird in some of these states,
968
00:22:36.510 --> 00:22:37.829
so I put them in likely Republican.
969
00:22:37.949 --> 00:22:41.369
I don't think any of those three will be a problem for Republicans,
970
00:22:41.910 --> 00:22:42.310
but I,
971
00:22:42.390 --> 00:22:43.449
I put them there with just the,
972
00:22:43.550 --> 00:22:45.229
the edges of your concern in the,
973
00:22:45.310 --> 00:22:46.709
in the mega tsunami land.
974
00:22:47.290 --> 00:22:49.560
Let's go through some of these other states and we will place them
975
00:22:49.900 --> 00:22:51.310
where I believe they will be,
976
00:22:51.660 --> 00:22:51.729
uh,
977
00:22:51.819 --> 00:22:55.319
and I'm gonna do my best to take every single state out of this middle column
978
00:22:55.670 --> 00:22:56.319
right now
979
00:22:56.459 --> 00:22:57.560
and put them somewhere.
980
00:22:57.859 --> 00:22:58.020
Um,
981
00:22:58.099 --> 00:22:59.060
let's start with Minnesota.
982
00:22:59.140 --> 00:22:59.579
Minnesota,
983
00:22:59.760 --> 00:22:59.770
uh,
984
00:23:00.020 --> 00:23:00.939
has been close.
985
00:23:01.060 --> 00:23:03.660
Michelle Tafoya has done very well in the polling.
986
00:23:03.729 --> 00:23:04.660
She's run a good race.
987
00:23:04.780 --> 00:23:06.709
She's a much better candidate than Peggy Flanagan.
988
00:23:06.819 --> 00:23:07.650
That being said,
989
00:23:07.939 --> 00:23:10.239
this is a Democratic year in a Democratic state.
990
00:23:10.719 --> 00:23:13.170
And I don't think she's gonna be able to get quite there.
991
00:23:13.380 --> 00:23:14.770
So I do have Michelle Tafoya,
992
00:23:15.050 --> 00:23:15.349
uh,
993
00:23:15.410 --> 00:23:16.530
losing to Peggy Flanagan.
994
00:23:16.609 --> 00:23:19.229
We're gonna put Minnesota into the likely Democratic column.
995
00:23:19.609 --> 00:23:19.930
Next up,
996
00:23:19.969 --> 00:23:21.089
we will do Georgia.
997
00:23:21.199 --> 00:23:22.010
Georgia is,
998
00:23:22.050 --> 00:23:22.400
uh,
999
00:23:22.410 --> 00:23:23.770
Mike Collins versus Jon Ossoff.
1000
00:23:23.810 --> 00:23:26.560
This has not been a questionable one for a long time.
1001
00:23:26.900 --> 00:23:29.569
Georgia looks like to me it's going to Jon Ossoff,
1002
00:23:29.890 --> 00:23:30.050
uh,
1003
00:23:30.170 --> 00:23:33.650
probably by a high single digits margin.
1004
00:23:33.989 --> 00:23:35.510
I have some positions on those margin markets.
1005
00:23:35.550 --> 00:23:36.689
We'll move that to the likely,
1006
00:23:36.949 --> 00:23:37.729
uh,
1007
00:23:37.750 --> 00:23:38.270
Democrat as well.
1008
00:23:38.430 --> 00:23:40.069
North Carolina is the same story.
1009
00:23:40.270 --> 00:23:40.829
This is one that,
1010
00:23:40.930 --> 00:23:41.069
you know,
1011
00:23:41.390 --> 00:23:43.310
Republicans pulled money out of a long time ago.
1012
00:23:43.520 --> 00:23:45.500
This will be a pickup for Democrats,
1013
00:23:45.760 --> 00:23:46.459
and we will move,
1014
00:23:46.510 --> 00:23:46.859
uh,
1015
00:23:46.869 --> 00:23:49.489
Roy Cooper over to the likely Democratic column,
1016
00:23:50.189 --> 00:23:51.050
giving them another
1017
00:23:51.229 --> 00:23:51.510
seat.
1018
00:23:52.290 --> 00:23:53.069
Alaska.
1019
00:23:53.439 --> 00:23:57.160
Alaska is a very close race between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola.
1020
00:23:57.250 --> 00:24:00.010
I don't honestly know what the effect of
1021
00:24:00.010 --> 00:24:02.390
the latest rounds of scandals on Peltola are.
1022
00:24:03.109 --> 00:24:03.119
She,
1023
00:24:03.170 --> 00:24:04.229
her numbers are good
1024
00:24:04.410 --> 00:24:04.930
in the state.
1025
00:24:05.050 --> 00:24:06.439
She's well liked in the state.
1026
00:24:06.770 --> 00:24:07.969
She is the type of person,
1027
00:24:08.089 --> 00:24:09.290
maybe you can bring me up in the box here,
1028
00:24:09.300 --> 00:24:11.130
so they're not just looking at the screen the entire time,
1029
00:24:11.209 --> 00:24:11.280
yeah,
1030
00:24:11.329 --> 00:24:11.829
there we go.
1031
00:24:12.010 --> 00:24:12.390
Um,
1032
00:24:13.069 --> 00:24:13.079
she,
1033
00:24:13.209 --> 00:24:14.510
she is the type of person
1034
00:24:15.089 --> 00:24:15.430
that
1035
00:24:15.550 --> 00:24:16.109
is,
1036
00:24:16.250 --> 00:24:18.369
her polling is very good in that state.
1037
00:24:18.689 --> 00:24:20.650
She tries to run away from.
1038
00:24:20.709 --> 00:24:21.520
The Democratic Party,
1039
00:24:21.640 --> 00:24:21.829
I mean,
1040
00:24:21.869 --> 00:24:22.390
there's a lot,
1041
00:24:22.560 --> 00:24:23.790
this is gonna be a repeating thing.
1042
00:24:23.910 --> 00:24:24.060
They're,
1043
00:24:24.150 --> 00:24:25.430
they're running away from those fringes,
1044
00:24:25.589 --> 00:24:26.540
running away from that,
1045
00:24:26.670 --> 00:24:28.329
that woke version one
1046
00:24:28.589 --> 00:24:29.510
type of party
1047
00:24:29.670 --> 00:24:32.250
and trying to plant themselves in a place where normal people can,
1048
00:24:32.310 --> 00:24:32.699
uh,
1049
00:24:32.790 --> 00:24:34.150
can justify voting for them.
1050
00:24:34.349 --> 00:24:35.650
It's working in some cases.
1051
00:24:35.829 --> 00:24:38.010
I don't know what this last round of scandals will do.
1052
00:24:38.349 --> 00:24:38.729
My,
1053
00:24:39.430 --> 00:24:40.709
my belief is the,
1054
00:24:40.790 --> 00:24:42.969
her abusing her staffers,
1055
00:24:43.310 --> 00:24:44.510
not gonna make much of a difference.
1056
00:24:45.229 --> 00:24:45.640
Um,
1057
00:24:45.719 --> 00:24:46.680
that's kind of where I think.
1058
00:24:46.719 --> 00:24:48.839
The fact that she was saying she was texting,
1059
00:24:49.119 --> 00:24:49.479
you know,
1060
00:24:49.560 --> 00:24:50.119
uh,
1061
00:24:50.400 --> 00:24:52.079
bad language to people and,
1062
00:24:52.180 --> 00:24:52.359
and,
1063
00:24:52.479 --> 00:24:52.760
you know,
1064
00:24:52.959 --> 00:24:53.300
making,
1065
00:24:53.349 --> 00:24:53.839
uh,
1066
00:24:54.000 --> 00:24:55.800
as Megyn Kelly always points out,
1067
00:24:56.050 --> 00:24:56.869
uh,
1068
00:24:57.260 --> 00:24:57.319
that,
1069
00:24:57.489 --> 00:24:57.719
uh,
1070
00:24:57.839 --> 00:24:58.390
noting that,
1071
00:24:58.439 --> 00:24:59.020
uh,
1072
00:24:59.319 --> 00:24:59.599
her,
1073
00:24:59.760 --> 00:25:00.599
her lizard,
1074
00:25:00.680 --> 00:25:00.800
uh,
1075
00:25:00.920 --> 00:25:01.560
meatball,
1076
00:25:02.160 --> 00:25:02.280
not,
1077
00:25:02.380 --> 00:25:02.510
not,
1078
00:25:02.719 --> 00:25:03.270
not a meat,
1079
00:25:03.390 --> 00:25:04.479
not a meatball made of lizards,
1080
00:25:04.520 --> 00:25:04.719
by the way,
1081
00:25:04.800 --> 00:25:05.780
I want to make sure that's clear.
1082
00:25:06.000 --> 00:25:08.050
It is a lizard that's named Meatball,
1083
00:25:08.199 --> 00:25:09.405
and they had to Feed the lizard
1084
00:25:09.675 --> 00:25:10.755
that's named Meatball.
1085
00:25:11.104 --> 00:25:11.944
That was part of the scandal.
1086
00:25:12.025 --> 00:25:13.265
I don't think any of that's gonna move the needle.
1087
00:25:13.584 --> 00:25:13.704
The,
1088
00:25:13.785 --> 00:25:15.844
the one where they got caught red-handed
1089
00:25:16.385 --> 00:25:19.084
trying to trick Alaskan voters out
1090
00:25:19.454 --> 00:25:19.885
of,
1091
00:25:19.944 --> 00:25:20.604
um,
1092
00:25:20.944 --> 00:25:21.194
uh,
1093
00:25:21.204 --> 00:25:21.454
uh,
1094
00:25:21.464 --> 00:25:21.944
out of,
1095
00:25:21.984 --> 00:25:22.805
uh,
1096
00:25:22.814 --> 00:25:24.574
voting for their candidate that they wanted,
1097
00:25:24.744 --> 00:25:27.265
essentially trying to recruit a fake Dan Sullivan
1098
00:25:27.265 --> 00:25:28.584
to run against the real Dan Sullivan,
1099
00:25:28.905 --> 00:25:29.364
could make
1100
00:25:29.744 --> 00:25:30.905
a difference around the margins,
1101
00:25:30.915 --> 00:25:32.305
and this is gonna be a very close race.
1102
00:25:33.060 --> 00:25:33.910
At the end of the day though,
1103
00:25:33.989 --> 00:25:37.829
I think Alaska winds up going to the Democrats in a close race,
1104
00:25:37.910 --> 00:25:39.030
lean Democrat for that one,
1105
00:25:39.130 --> 00:25:39.510
Adam,
1106
00:25:39.829 --> 00:25:40.099
uh,
1107
00:25:40.270 --> 00:25:41.079
moving that over there,
1108
00:25:41.189 --> 00:25:42.969
one lean Democrat so far.
1109
00:25:43.469 --> 00:25:44.750
New Hampshire is a,
1110
00:25:44.829 --> 00:25:45.300
uh,
1111
00:25:45.329 --> 00:25:45.699
uh,
1112
00:25:45.729 --> 00:25:45.739
a,
1113
00:25:45.750 --> 00:25:47.290
a situation where
1114
00:25:47.520 --> 00:25:49.270
John Sununu going up against Chris Pappas,
1115
00:25:49.349 --> 00:25:50.329
this was thought to be
1116
00:25:50.750 --> 00:25:51.140
pretty,
1117
00:25:51.189 --> 00:25:51.699
um,
1118
00:25:51.949 --> 00:25:52.489
close
1119
00:25:52.670 --> 00:25:53.550
because Sununu is a.
1120
00:25:53.819 --> 00:25:54.050
You know,
1121
00:25:54.260 --> 00:25:56.959
a good candidate for the state has a big name recognition,
1122
00:25:57.050 --> 00:25:57.359
uh,
1123
00:25:57.569 --> 00:25:57.739
issue,
1124
00:25:58.040 --> 00:25:58.050
uh,
1125
00:25:58.099 --> 00:26:00.119
that's for on the positive side of his ledger
1126
00:26:00.339 --> 00:26:01.219
in New Hampshire.
1127
00:26:01.380 --> 00:26:01.800
However,
1128
00:26:02.260 --> 00:26:02.369
uh,
1129
00:26:02.420 --> 00:26:04.180
this is when we were on really early and said,
1130
00:26:04.219 --> 00:26:07.959
I just don't think Republicans are gonna get there in a climate like this.
1131
00:26:08.300 --> 00:26:08.380
Uh,
1132
00:26:08.500 --> 00:26:11.300
we're gonna move John Sununu losing to Chris Pappas.
1133
00:26:11.369 --> 00:26:12.640
New Hampshire goes to
1134
00:26:12.780 --> 00:26:13.760
likely Democrat.
1135
00:26:14.180 --> 00:26:14.500
Uh,
1136
00:26:14.619 --> 00:26:15.099
and we've had,
1137
00:26:15.380 --> 00:26:15.390
we,
1138
00:26:15.400 --> 00:26:15.430
we're,
1139
00:26:15.579 --> 00:26:15.819
by the way,
1140
00:26:15.900 --> 00:26:17.239
we were on that one for a long time.
1141
00:26:17.579 --> 00:26:18.479
Most of the profit is,
1142
00:26:18.579 --> 00:26:18.699
uh,
1143
00:26:18.780 --> 00:26:19.489
dried up on that one,
1144
00:26:19.579 --> 00:26:20.699
but hopefully you were with us and,
1145
00:26:20.760 --> 00:26:22.619
and we're able to eat some of that profit up.
1146
00:26:23.030 --> 00:26:23.420
Um,
1147
00:26:23.469 --> 00:26:23.750
let's see,
1148
00:26:23.829 --> 00:26:24.390
where should we go next?
1149
00:26:24.430 --> 00:26:24.670
I'm gonna,
1150
00:26:24.790 --> 00:26:25.989
I'm looking at these states cause I wanna,
1151
00:26:26.109 --> 00:26:27.250
I wanna build the drama here.
1152
00:26:28.130 --> 00:26:29.349
Let's go to Mississippi.
1153
00:26:30.949 --> 00:26:33.180
Mississippi should not be in this freaking list,
1154
00:26:33.229 --> 00:26:33.569
OK?
1155
00:26:33.750 --> 00:26:36.920
Mississippi is Christie is Cindy Hyde-Smith against Scott Colom.
1156
00:26:37.469 --> 00:26:39.329
The dynamics of this race are interesting.
1157
00:26:39.689 --> 00:26:40.069
Um,
1158
00:26:40.390 --> 00:26:42.099
Cindy Hyde-Smith is a,
1159
00:26:42.150 --> 00:26:42.780
uh,
1160
00:26:42.910 --> 00:26:43.489
is a
1161
00:26:44.229 --> 00:26:44.770
Republican.
1162
00:26:45.219 --> 00:26:45.390
Um,
1163
00:26:45.469 --> 00:26:46.310
she was appointed initially,
1164
00:26:46.390 --> 00:26:47.380
was later elected.
1165
00:26:47.750 --> 00:26:48.989
She's not the most dynamic speaker.
1166
00:26:49.150 --> 00:26:49.390
She's,
1167
00:26:49.510 --> 00:26:51.170
I don't think she's a very good candidate.
1168
00:26:51.310 --> 00:26:52.650
She's not running a very good race.
1169
00:26:53.579 --> 00:26:54.359
Scott Colomb,
1170
00:26:54.660 --> 00:26:55.020
um,
1171
00:26:55.140 --> 00:26:55.609
is,
1172
00:26:55.780 --> 00:26:56.959
has run a pretty good race.
1173
00:26:57.459 --> 00:26:57.689
Um,
1174
00:26:57.780 --> 00:26:58.180
and again,
1175
00:26:58.250 --> 00:26:59.859
it's the same thing where all these
1176
00:26:59.859 --> 00:27:02.099
Democrats are running almost as pseudo-Republicans.
1177
00:27:02.150 --> 00:27:04.859
Like Scott Colomb's big criticism of,
1178
00:27:05.099 --> 00:27:06.380
of Cindy Hyde-Smith has been like,
1179
00:27:06.459 --> 00:27:06.619
well,
1180
00:27:06.819 --> 00:27:07.180
she
1181
00:27:07.359 --> 00:27:09.040
says you're not gonna be able to eat beef.
1182
00:27:09.579 --> 00:27:09.689
Like,
1183
00:27:09.699 --> 00:27:09.849
what,
1184
00:27:09.920 --> 00:27:11.109
what parties are these anymore?
1185
00:27:11.180 --> 00:27:12.640
I don't even understand what's happening.
1186
00:27:12.829 --> 00:27:13.060
Um,
1187
00:27:13.130 --> 00:27:13.439
but
1188
00:27:13.569 --> 00:27:13.930
it's been a,
1189
00:27:14.260 --> 00:27:14.410
uh,
1190
00:27:14.459 --> 00:27:14.589
uh,
1191
00:27:14.699 --> 00:27:17.459
I would say successful to push this into the conversation.
1192
00:27:17.760 --> 00:27:18.020
Um,
1193
00:27:18.030 --> 00:27:18.910
polls have showed it very,
1194
00:27:18.989 --> 00:27:19.699
very close,
1195
00:27:19.979 --> 00:27:23.020
though almost exclusively Democratic leaning polls,
1196
00:27:23.229 --> 00:27:23.339
um,
1197
00:27:23.430 --> 00:27:23.619
not,
1198
00:27:23.790 --> 00:27:24.349
not totally,
1199
00:27:24.390 --> 00:27:25.250
but most of them
1200
00:27:25.390 --> 00:27:26.790
have been from Democratic pollsters.
1201
00:27:27.000 --> 00:27:28.250
This is a close race.
1202
00:27:28.589 --> 00:27:29.449
I think
1203
00:27:29.750 --> 00:27:31.369
Cindy Hyde-Smith winds up
1204
00:27:31.469 --> 00:27:32.380
holding on to this one.
1205
00:27:32.430 --> 00:27:33.489
We'll move it to the lean,
1206
00:27:33.719 --> 00:27:34.000
uh,
1207
00:27:34.189 --> 00:27:35.189
Republican category.
1208
00:27:36.119 --> 00:27:37.709
This should not be one I'm nervous about.
1209
00:27:37.839 --> 00:27:40.550
I had a big position on Cindy Hyde-Smith earlier on thinking,
1210
00:27:40.599 --> 00:27:41.040
oh my gosh,
1211
00:27:41.079 --> 00:27:41.560
I can get 10,
1212
00:27:41.640 --> 00:27:42.270
12% on,
1213
00:27:42.290 --> 00:27:43.530
on Cindy Hyde-Smith.
1214
00:27:43.560 --> 00:27:44.719
I don't know what that market's at.
1215
00:27:44.760 --> 00:27:45.920
I should pull this up on my own,
1216
00:27:46.000 --> 00:27:46.319
uh,
1217
00:27:46.680 --> 00:27:47.560
so you don't have to keep doing this,
1218
00:27:47.640 --> 00:27:47.719
uh,
1219
00:27:47.839 --> 00:27:48.040
Adam,
1220
00:27:48.079 --> 00:27:49.319
and cause I'm gonna keep thinking,
1221
00:27:49.390 --> 00:27:49.719
oh gosh,
1222
00:27:49.800 --> 00:27:52.459
what's the number on that one and then have to ask you to bring up new markets.
1223
00:27:52.869 --> 00:27:53.199
Let me,
1224
00:27:53.270 --> 00:27:53.579
uh,
1225
00:27:53.680 --> 00:27:55.260
let me do that as we're going here,
1226
00:27:55.680 --> 00:27:56.560
and we will get,
1227
00:27:56.640 --> 00:27:57.099
uh,
1228
00:27:57.239 --> 00:27:58.219
we'll get you something.
1229
00:28:00.750 --> 00:28:00.910
Uh,
1230
00:28:01.000 --> 00:28:02.130
let's see if I can find it.
1231
00:28:02.510 --> 00:28:03.010
Um.
1232
00:28:03.670 --> 00:28:03.680
Yeah,
1233
00:28:04.390 --> 00:28:04.500
gosh,
1234
00:28:04.709 --> 00:28:05.859
now I'm pressing all the wrong buttons.
1235
00:28:05.939 --> 00:28:06.430
This is just,
1236
00:28:06.469 --> 00:28:06.630
I'm,
1237
00:28:06.670 --> 00:28:07.189
I'm choking.
1238
00:28:07.270 --> 00:28:07.609
I'm choking.
1239
00:28:07.630 --> 00:28:07.829
Here we go,
1240
00:28:07.859 --> 00:28:08.390
midterm sub.
1241
00:28:08.500 --> 00:28:08.810
OK.
1242
00:28:09.140 --> 00:28:09.699
Um,
1243
00:28:10.910 --> 00:28:14.020
Mississippi has it right now at 84% for Hyde Smith to win.
1244
00:28:14.089 --> 00:28:15.030
I think she'll hold on.
1245
00:28:15.459 --> 00:28:15.550
Uh,
1246
00:28:15.589 --> 00:28:17.369
I don't think the margin is gonna be very large,
1247
00:28:17.630 --> 00:28:19.420
and it's a terrible disappointment.
1248
00:28:19.750 --> 00:28:21.569
Candidate quality is a big story here.
1249
00:28:22.229 --> 00:28:24.469
Democrats were able to get a lot of younger people who,
1250
00:28:24.530 --> 00:28:24.890
um,
1251
00:28:25.150 --> 00:28:25.390
you know,
1252
00:28:25.510 --> 00:28:27.510
who are on the ball a little bit more than
1253
00:28:27.510 --> 00:28:29.900
Republican candidates who were kind of running some also-rans.
1254
00:28:30.150 --> 00:28:31.050
They're gonna hear this again.
1255
00:28:31.430 --> 00:28:31.589
Um,
1256
00:28:31.630 --> 00:28:34.270
I think Mississippi winds up being held though by Cindy Hyde-Smith.
1257
00:28:34.339 --> 00:28:34.650
OK.
1258
00:28:34.910 --> 00:28:35.099
Um,
1259
00:28:35.189 --> 00:28:35.500
next up,
1260
00:28:35.550 --> 00:28:36.670
let's do
1261
00:28:37.189 --> 00:28:37.670
Florida.
1262
00:28:37.790 --> 00:28:39.270
Florida is Ashley Moody
1263
00:28:39.630 --> 00:28:39.890
against,
1264
00:28:40.030 --> 00:28:40.180
uh,
1265
00:28:40.189 --> 00:28:40.689
Angie Nixon.
1266
00:28:40.750 --> 00:28:43.550
I bring this one up right now because it is the reverse case.
1267
00:28:43.989 --> 00:28:44.099
Uh,
1268
00:28:44.160 --> 00:28:45.689
it's the reverse case of a lot of the,
1269
00:28:45.760 --> 00:28:46.199
uh,
1270
00:28:46.209 --> 00:28:46.880
stories that we,
1271
00:28:46.959 --> 00:28:47.540
we will tell
1272
00:28:48.040 --> 00:28:50.719
where Democrats came up with a good candidate and Republicans came up with a bad one.
1273
00:28:50.800 --> 00:28:51.920
This is sort of the reverse.
1274
00:28:52.400 --> 00:28:52.489
Uh,
1275
00:28:52.560 --> 00:28:53.959
Ashley Moody's a good candidate.
1276
00:28:54.189 --> 00:28:54.510
She's,
1277
00:28:54.520 --> 00:28:54.790
um,
1278
00:28:55.000 --> 00:28:55.739
run a good race,
1279
00:28:55.949 --> 00:28:56.319
uh,
1280
00:28:56.439 --> 00:28:56.640
you know,
1281
00:28:56.839 --> 00:28:59.939
only a Democratic mega tsunami type situation
1282
00:29:00.160 --> 00:29:01.000
could take her out.
1283
00:29:01.079 --> 00:29:03.239
And then you add on to the fact that Angie Nixon,
1284
00:29:03.319 --> 00:29:04.540
who's a socialist,
1285
00:29:04.880 --> 00:29:05.800
is her opponent.
1286
00:29:06.160 --> 00:29:06.270
Uh,
1287
00:29:07.290 --> 00:29:08.880
Republicans have been running away with Florida.
1288
00:29:09.040 --> 00:29:10.910
They will not win by these sort of,
1289
00:29:10.920 --> 00:29:11.319
um.
1290
00:29:12.020 --> 00:29:14.890
DeSantis level margins that they're getting used to.
1291
00:29:15.180 --> 00:29:16.500
This is a bad year for Republicans.
1292
00:29:16.579 --> 00:29:18.540
I kind of think she'll be in the mid to high
1293
00:29:18.540 --> 00:29:20.459
single digits when it comes to victory on this one,
1294
00:29:20.699 --> 00:29:23.839
but I will take Ashley Moody to move to lean Republican
1295
00:29:24.260 --> 00:29:24.719
there.
1296
00:29:25.260 --> 00:29:26.199
South Carolina,
1297
00:29:26.380 --> 00:29:29.140
I'm staying the hell away from this race when it comes to prediction markets.
1298
00:29:29.180 --> 00:29:29.810
I gotta tell you.
1299
00:29:29.900 --> 00:29:30.380
I don't like,
1300
00:29:30.459 --> 00:29:30.699
I don't,
1301
00:29:30.780 --> 00:29:30.979
I don't,
1302
00:29:31.060 --> 00:29:33.420
I just don't like the whole story with Darlene Graham Nordone.
1303
00:29:33.550 --> 00:29:36.880
Nobody likes the idea that somebody's sister just got this job.
1304
00:29:37.420 --> 00:29:38.180
Nobody likes that.
1305
00:29:38.500 --> 00:29:38.780
Um,
1306
00:29:38.890 --> 00:29:39.020
you know,
1307
00:29:39.300 --> 00:29:39.329
you,
1308
00:29:39.339 --> 00:29:39.459
you,
1309
00:29:39.579 --> 00:29:41.119
you feel some sympathy for the family,
1310
00:29:41.250 --> 00:29:42.650
you feel a little bit of grief.
1311
00:29:42.719 --> 00:29:43.660
I think everybody would have,
1312
00:29:43.760 --> 00:29:43.900
you know,
1313
00:29:44.060 --> 00:29:44.979
kind of understood
1314
00:29:45.300 --> 00:29:48.489
that she got the job here in a short period of time,
1315
00:29:48.859 --> 00:29:48.979
right?
1316
00:29:49.069 --> 00:29:49.300
Where,
1317
00:29:49.339 --> 00:29:49.660
OK,
1318
00:29:49.780 --> 00:29:49.900
you know,
1319
00:29:50.010 --> 00:29:50.819
she's gonna run the,
1320
00:29:50.900 --> 00:29:51.619
the half,
1321
00:29:51.859 --> 00:29:51.969
uh,
1322
00:29:51.979 --> 00:29:53.380
this little baby term until,
1323
00:29:53.520 --> 00:29:54.719
until the election happens.
1324
00:29:55.380 --> 00:29:57.420
I don't think people in South Carolina like the idea that
1325
00:29:57.420 --> 00:29:59.420
she's being handed 6 years of this job when she doesn't,
1326
00:29:59.459 --> 00:29:59.810
obviously,
1327
00:29:59.819 --> 00:30:00.979
she doesn't know what she's doing with it.
1328
00:30:01.420 --> 00:30:01.849
That being said,
1329
00:30:01.930 --> 00:30:03.219
there are a lot of Republicans there,
1330
00:30:03.310 --> 00:30:05.979
and it's difficult to get to a number where you can beat her.
1331
00:30:06.339 --> 00:30:06.469
Uh,
1332
00:30:06.550 --> 00:30:08.650
Annie Andrews is right there in the polls.
1333
00:30:08.829 --> 00:30:10.030
I would not be surprised.
1334
00:30:10.150 --> 00:30:10.459
I,
1335
00:30:10.709 --> 00:30:11.339
I should tell you this,
1336
00:30:11.390 --> 00:30:12.099
at this point,
1337
00:30:12.219 --> 00:30:13.390
I'm looking at this race in the middle,
1338
00:30:13.540 --> 00:30:14.010
toss-up.
1339
00:30:15.079 --> 00:30:16.739
Everything left in the toss-up category,
1340
00:30:16.920 --> 00:30:17.459
I feel
1341
00:30:17.640 --> 00:30:19.380
minimal confidence about.
1342
00:30:19.880 --> 00:30:22.400
These are the races I try to avoid when I have prediction
1343
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:26.020
market positions because I don't want close calls on election night.
1344
00:30:26.160 --> 00:30:27.339
I don't want to be,
1345
00:30:27.520 --> 00:30:28.000
oh my gosh,
1346
00:30:28.109 --> 00:30:28.969
which way is it gonna go?
1347
00:30:29.020 --> 00:30:30.099
I don't wanna be that guy.
1348
00:30:30.560 --> 00:30:31.270
If I'm gonna be that guy,
1349
00:30:31.319 --> 00:30:32.520
I wanna do it in the margin markets.
1350
00:30:32.560 --> 00:30:33.280
I wanna do it with money.
1351
00:30:33.319 --> 00:30:34.550
I've already made that night.
1352
00:30:34.640 --> 00:30:34.790
Like,
1353
00:30:34.800 --> 00:30:36.469
I don't want to be in markets where I'm like,
1354
00:30:36.479 --> 00:30:36.829
oh gosh,
1355
00:30:36.880 --> 00:30:39.439
I'm biting my fingernails and there's too many of those this year.
1356
00:30:39.959 --> 00:30:40.280
So,
1357
00:30:40.439 --> 00:30:42.719
if you want like money that's more reliable,
1358
00:30:42.920 --> 00:30:44.150
stay in those outer columns,
1359
00:30:44.439 --> 00:30:46.699
make your 5 to 10 to 15%
1360
00:30:47.010 --> 00:30:47.979
in one night,
1361
00:30:48.359 --> 00:30:49.400
and call it a day
1362
00:30:49.609 --> 00:30:50.819
and be happy with yourself.
1363
00:30:51.239 --> 00:30:53.510
That's totally a fine approach here and one that I,
1364
00:30:53.560 --> 00:30:54.579
I normally make.
1365
00:30:55.119 --> 00:30:56.510
What's happened here is I have had some
1366
00:30:56.510 --> 00:30:58.439
positions I've held for a while thinking that,
1367
00:30:58.520 --> 00:30:58.680
you know,
1368
00:30:58.750 --> 00:30:59.920
we may go back to the Republicans.
1369
00:31:00.000 --> 00:31:02.550
So I've got a little bit more nervousness than I would like to have here.
1370
00:31:02.880 --> 00:31:04.979
South Carolina should not be part of it.
1371
00:31:05.199 --> 00:31:06.119
But when I saw that debate,
1372
00:31:06.199 --> 00:31:07.319
I've seen Darlene Graham,
1373
00:31:07.400 --> 00:31:07.660
uh,
1374
00:31:07.670 --> 00:31:08.319
in action.
1375
00:31:08.640 --> 00:31:11.380
I pulled out of almost my entire position on this race.
1376
00:31:11.390 --> 00:31:11.439
Anyway,
1377
00:31:11.520 --> 00:31:12.579
I'm pretty much out of it.
1378
00:31:12.839 --> 00:31:13.030
Uh,
1379
00:31:13.160 --> 00:31:13.800
South Carolina though,
1380
00:31:13.880 --> 00:31:14.300
I will,
1381
00:31:14.780 --> 00:31:14.880
again,
1382
00:31:15.000 --> 00:31:16.119
these are all gun to my head positions.
1383
00:31:16.160 --> 00:31:17.260
I gotta put them somewhere.
1384
00:31:17.599 --> 00:31:19.880
I'd like to not be involved in the South Carolina market,
1385
00:31:19.920 --> 00:31:21.900
but I will put this one in lean Republican.
1386
00:31:22.380 --> 00:31:22.900
Barely.
1387
00:31:23.359 --> 00:31:23.439
I,
1388
00:31:23.500 --> 00:31:23.670
I,
1389
00:31:23.719 --> 00:31:24.150
I,
1390
00:31:24.280 --> 00:31:24.760
I barely.
1391
00:31:24.839 --> 00:31:25.930
I'm not confident in it,
1392
00:31:25.959 --> 00:31:26.359
and that's,
1393
00:31:26.449 --> 00:31:27.319
that's unbelievable.
1394
00:31:27.719 --> 00:31:28.880
Nebraska will do next.
1395
00:31:29.000 --> 00:31:29.829
Nebraska is,
1396
00:31:29.839 --> 00:31:30.150
uh,
1397
00:31:30.160 --> 00:31:30.959
another one of these cases.
1398
00:31:31.040 --> 00:31:31.780
Pete Ricketts
1399
00:31:32.040 --> 00:31:33.800
running against Dan Osborne.
1400
00:31:34.119 --> 00:31:34.229
Uh,
1401
00:31:34.319 --> 00:31:36.079
Osborne is a fake independent,
1402
00:31:36.199 --> 00:31:36.479
uh,
1403
00:31:36.560 --> 00:31:38.420
obviously a Democrat running as an independent.
1404
00:31:38.479 --> 00:31:38.760
He's,
1405
00:31:38.880 --> 00:31:39.119
I mean,
1406
00:31:39.229 --> 00:31:39.359
you know,
1407
00:31:39.479 --> 00:31:41.069
to the level that he's actually been caught on,
1408
00:31:41.189 --> 00:31:41.560
on,
1409
00:31:41.750 --> 00:31:41.880
you know,
1410
00:31:42.119 --> 00:31:43.099
recorded audio
1411
00:31:43.599 --> 00:31:46.020
saying things that make him sound like a left-wing Democrat.
1412
00:31:46.339 --> 00:31:47.410
One thing that's really easily,
1413
00:31:47.479 --> 00:31:47.680
uh,
1414
00:31:47.939 --> 00:31:50.660
can kind of tell the story of these fake independent candidates
1415
00:31:50.920 --> 00:31:51.540
is that
1416
00:31:51.949 --> 00:31:53.060
none of the analysts.
1417
00:31:53.525 --> 00:31:54.005
There are like,
1418
00:31:54.125 --> 00:31:54.364
well,
1419
00:31:54.444 --> 00:31:56.194
what will happen if it's a 50,
1420
00:31:56.305 --> 00:31:56.395
uh,
1421
00:31:56.405 --> 00:32:00.905
50 to 49 race and Dan Osborne's out or 51 to 49,
1422
00:32:01.045 --> 00:32:02.385
and Dan Osborne's there,
1423
00:32:02.645 --> 00:32:03.035
um,
1424
00:32:03.165 --> 00:32:03.604
you know,
1425
00:32:03.744 --> 00:32:04.005
uh,
1426
00:32:04.435 --> 00:32:04.984
will he,
1427
00:32:05.255 --> 00:32:05.324
uh,
1428
00:32:05.545 --> 00:32:06.125
just not,
1429
00:32:06.275 --> 00:32:06.285
well,
1430
00:32:06.364 --> 00:32:07.645
maybe he'll caucus with the Republicans.
1431
00:32:07.675 --> 00:32:08.324
He's an independent.
1432
00:32:08.405 --> 00:32:09.045
Who knows?
1433
00:32:09.405 --> 00:32:11.704
Nobody says that stuff because everybody knows.
1434
00:32:11.885 --> 00:32:13.244
Everybody knows what side he's gonna be.
1435
00:32:13.425 --> 00:32:15.035
Everybody knows he's going to be a Democrat.
1436
00:32:15.234 --> 00:32:17.204
Everybody knows that every one of these fake
1437
00:32:17.204 --> 00:32:19.204
independents are just going to be Democrats.
1438
00:32:19.760 --> 00:32:20.270
Um,
1439
00:32:20.569 --> 00:32:21.609
will this work on,
1440
00:32:21.719 --> 00:32:22.530
and I say everybody,
1441
00:32:22.839 --> 00:32:23.609
everybody in the media,
1442
00:32:23.969 --> 00:32:25.880
everybody in the voting populace probably doesn't know that,
1443
00:32:26.010 --> 00:32:26.410
and there,
1444
00:32:26.550 --> 00:32:28.209
some of these people will be fooled by this,
1445
00:32:28.310 --> 00:32:28.319
uh,
1446
00:32:28.449 --> 00:32:28.569
you know,
1447
00:32:28.650 --> 00:32:29.989
if you have people that you know,
1448
00:32:30.290 --> 00:32:30.439
uh,
1449
00:32:30.849 --> 00:32:31.000
look,
1450
00:32:31.089 --> 00:32:32.079
what they may want that,
1451
00:32:32.170 --> 00:32:32.810
and if they want that,
1452
00:32:32.890 --> 00:32:33.729
they should vote for it,
1453
00:32:33.989 --> 00:32:36.319
but they should not be fooled into utilizing
1454
00:32:36.319 --> 00:32:37.989
their vote for something that is not real.
1455
00:32:38.489 --> 00:32:39.420
That pisses me off.
1456
00:32:39.810 --> 00:32:40.290
This is me.
1457
00:32:40.680 --> 00:32:40.810
Uh,
1458
00:32:40.890 --> 00:32:41.290
Nebraska,
1459
00:32:41.329 --> 00:32:41.449
though,
1460
00:32:41.560 --> 00:32:41.689
uh,
1461
00:32:41.770 --> 00:32:41.890
I,
1462
00:32:41.989 --> 00:32:42.130
you know,
1463
00:32:42.250 --> 00:32:43.160
Ricketts and Osborne,
1464
00:32:43.209 --> 00:32:43.810
the polling very,
1465
00:32:43.890 --> 00:32:45.010
very close here again.
1466
00:32:45.290 --> 00:32:47.880
Osborne ran last time in 2020,
1467
00:32:48.089 --> 00:32:48.890
I think it was 2024,
1468
00:32:49.000 --> 00:32:49.239
right?
1469
00:32:49.550 --> 00:32:50.510
Against Deb Fisher
1470
00:32:50.689 --> 00:32:51.959
and lost by seven points,
1471
00:32:52.010 --> 00:32:53.689
though the polling showed very close.
1472
00:32:53.790 --> 00:32:54.689
I've made this case before,
1473
00:32:54.800 --> 00:32:55.089
but
1474
00:32:55.319 --> 00:32:56.349
if you add up
1475
00:32:56.609 --> 00:32:59.599
the Democrats in the state and the independents in the state,
1476
00:32:59.739 --> 00:33:01.369
they don't equal the Republicans in the state.
1477
00:33:02.000 --> 00:33:03.599
Nebraska is a really red state,
1478
00:33:03.680 --> 00:33:04.739
and I think,
1479
00:33:04.800 --> 00:33:04.989
uh,
1480
00:33:05.000 --> 00:33:06.400
Nebraska will be held by Ricketts,
1481
00:33:06.439 --> 00:33:07.479
who's run an OK race,
1482
00:33:07.520 --> 00:33:08.349
a decent race,
1483
00:33:08.640 --> 00:33:10.160
and also has some good resources.
1484
00:33:10.239 --> 00:33:11.150
He's run a lot of commercials.
1485
00:33:11.189 --> 00:33:12.900
He's not being outspent massively.
1486
00:33:13.199 --> 00:33:13.270
Uh,
1487
00:33:13.479 --> 00:33:16.619
so I do think Ricketts holds on and he goes to the lean Republican
1488
00:33:16.839 --> 00:33:17.800
category here.
1489
00:33:17.869 --> 00:33:19.859
We're getting close to who's going to control the Senate.
1490
00:33:20.119 --> 00:33:22.880
Let's go through the last 123456 states.
1491
00:33:25.250 --> 00:33:25.939
Start with Ohio.
1492
00:33:28.619 --> 00:33:32.859
Ohio is a state that I really would have believed for a long time
1493
00:33:32.859 --> 00:33:36.079
would have stayed and was moving in that Republican direction would stay there.
1494
00:33:36.619 --> 00:33:39.699
There are reasons that I have less faith in other states.
1495
00:33:39.819 --> 00:33:40.849
I have way less faith,
1496
00:33:40.939 --> 00:33:41.359
for example,
1497
00:33:41.530 --> 00:33:43.880
in the Hispanic districts of Texas,
1498
00:33:44.300 --> 00:33:45.459
when you talk about House seats,
1499
00:33:45.699 --> 00:33:48.939
and Republicans got very excited about how they did well in 2024 among these groups,
1500
00:33:49.020 --> 00:33:50.189
and I just like you can't.
1501
00:33:51.150 --> 00:33:52.589
I said this on the air 100 times,
1502
00:33:52.670 --> 00:33:53.890
you can't depend
1503
00:33:54.670 --> 00:33:57.670
on that type of voter for a long-term strategy.
1504
00:33:57.780 --> 00:33:58.949
If you can win them an election,
1505
00:33:59.150 --> 00:33:59.430
great.
1506
00:34:00.189 --> 00:34:01.359
But if you try to say,
1507
00:34:01.439 --> 00:34:01.630
well,
1508
00:34:01.760 --> 00:34:03.400
now we're a Republican Party
1509
00:34:03.520 --> 00:34:06.979
that just wins 60% of Latino voters in Texas,
1510
00:34:07.359 --> 00:34:08.820
you're gonna wind up with problems.
1511
00:34:09.040 --> 00:34:10.379
I said it over and over again,
1512
00:34:10.399 --> 00:34:10.800
uh,
1513
00:34:10.978 --> 00:34:12.840
when we got closer to redistricting.
1514
00:34:12.909 --> 00:34:13.199
And I said,
1515
00:34:13.280 --> 00:34:13.438
well,
1516
00:34:13.560 --> 00:34:13.780
guys,
1517
00:34:13.879 --> 00:34:14.418
if you
1518
00:34:14.550 --> 00:34:16.310
redistrict to 2024 numbers,
1519
00:34:16.478 --> 00:34:19.379
you may very well end up with what they call a dummymander,
1520
00:34:19.489 --> 00:34:22.760
where you gerrymander a race for your own favor and then wind up losing it.
1521
00:34:23.688 --> 00:34:25.770
I think that's gonna probably happen in several of those races,
1522
00:34:25.850 --> 00:34:26.350
by the way.
1523
00:34:26.728 --> 00:34:28.000
That's not the story though of,
1524
00:34:28.010 --> 00:34:28.469
uh,
1525
00:34:28.478 --> 00:34:29.129
of Ohio.
1526
00:34:29.199 --> 00:34:32.208
Ohio is a different animal obviously like there's not
1527
00:34:32.208 --> 00:34:34.708
as high a of a percentage of Hispanic voters.
1528
00:34:34.969 --> 00:34:35.310
Um,
1529
00:34:35.610 --> 00:34:36.580
what's happened in Ohio,
1530
00:34:36.688 --> 00:34:37.830
there has been a big
1531
00:34:38.100 --> 00:34:40.550
factor of tariffs have hit Ohio very,
1532
00:34:40.570 --> 00:34:41.159
uh,
1533
00:34:41.168 --> 00:34:41.469
strongly.
1534
00:34:41.489 --> 00:34:42.728
Now of course Sherrod Brown.
1535
00:34:43.388 --> 00:34:44.779
He's a tariff guy.
1536
00:34:44.989 --> 00:34:46.148
He's been a tariff guy.
1537
00:34:46.228 --> 00:34:46.628
He's,
1538
00:34:46.868 --> 00:34:46.989
he,
1539
00:34:47.069 --> 00:34:47.268
he,
1540
00:34:47.349 --> 00:34:48.009
I'm a tough,
1541
00:34:48.268 --> 00:34:49.799
a rough and tumble union guy.
1542
00:34:49.908 --> 00:34:50.069
I,
1543
00:34:50.188 --> 00:34:50.388
he was,
1544
00:34:50.509 --> 00:34:52.418
he's been a protectionist his entire life,
1545
00:34:52.509 --> 00:34:54.648
but he's trying to act like he's not right now.
1546
00:34:55.599 --> 00:34:56.579
Long story short,
1547
00:34:56.998 --> 00:34:57.539
uh,
1548
00:34:58.158 --> 00:34:58.718
Sherrod Brown,
1549
00:34:58.799 --> 00:35:01.698
a lot of people in the state still think he's the incumbent senator.
1550
00:35:01.718 --> 00:35:02.948
He's been there for so long.
1551
00:35:03.398 --> 00:35:04.269
There is a good push,
1552
00:35:04.339 --> 00:35:05.839
a smart push by Husted to say,
1553
00:35:05.958 --> 00:35:06.319
hey,
1554
00:35:06.759 --> 00:35:08.198
this guy's been in politics for 50 years.
1555
00:35:08.279 --> 00:35:09.198
Do you still want more of this?
1556
00:35:09.239 --> 00:35:09.839
I'm the new guy.
1557
00:35:09.918 --> 00:35:10.549
He's the other.
1558
00:35:11.128 --> 00:35:12.259
You wanna fight against the establishment,
1559
00:35:12.319 --> 00:35:13.178
you gotta go against him.
1560
00:35:13.569 --> 00:35:14.698
Really smart approach.
1561
00:35:15.158 --> 00:35:15.789
I fear though,
1562
00:35:15.799 --> 00:35:16.438
in this environment,
1563
00:35:16.479 --> 00:35:17.599
it will not be enough.
1564
00:35:17.638 --> 00:35:18.708
And I think Ohio,
1565
00:35:18.918 --> 00:35:21.158
I'm going to give to the Democrats.
1566
00:35:21.629 --> 00:35:21.790
Uh,
1567
00:35:21.870 --> 00:35:23.620
in a lean Democratic capacity.
1568
00:35:23.790 --> 00:35:23.989
Again,
1569
00:35:24.030 --> 00:35:25.520
these are all very close races
1570
00:35:25.709 --> 00:35:26.830
and races that honestly,
1571
00:35:26.870 --> 00:35:27.229
I don't,
1572
00:35:27.350 --> 00:35:27.510
I,
1573
00:35:27.590 --> 00:35:27.870
you know,
1574
00:35:28.060 --> 00:35:28.429
they're so,
1575
00:35:28.550 --> 00:35:29.429
they're too close for comfort.
1576
00:35:29.520 --> 00:35:30.530
I do have a position
1577
00:35:30.750 --> 00:35:31.010
on,
1578
00:35:31.149 --> 00:35:31.370
uh,
1579
00:35:31.379 --> 00:35:32.010
Ohio,
1580
00:35:32.239 --> 00:35:32.500
um,
1581
00:35:32.580 --> 00:35:34.510
a relatively decent one on Sherrod Brown.
1582
00:35:34.629 --> 00:35:36.469
He is the MVP of my Senate fantasy team,
1583
00:35:36.489 --> 00:35:38.110
even though I'm not happy with that result,
1584
00:35:38.320 --> 00:35:38.469
uh,
1585
00:35:38.550 --> 00:35:39.149
but that is,
1586
00:35:39.229 --> 00:35:39.520
uh,
1587
00:35:39.629 --> 00:35:40.229
that's where we are.
1588
00:35:40.310 --> 00:35:40.689
OK.
1589
00:35:40.949 --> 00:35:41.350
Next up,
1590
00:35:41.429 --> 00:35:42.909
let's go to Michigan.
1591
00:35:43.030 --> 00:35:43.270
Michigan,
1592
00:35:43.330 --> 00:35:43.989
El Syed,
1593
00:35:44.070 --> 00:35:44.489
and
1594
00:35:44.830 --> 00:35:45.199
Uh,
1595
00:35:45.320 --> 00:35:45.639
going up,
1596
00:35:45.719 --> 00:35:46.300
going up against,
1597
00:35:46.439 --> 00:35:46.560
uh,
1598
00:35:46.639 --> 00:35:47.449
Mike Rogers.
1599
00:35:47.760 --> 00:35:48.760
I should also mention in Ohio,
1600
00:35:48.879 --> 00:35:49.979
the Ramaswamy thing.
1601
00:35:50.120 --> 00:35:51.300
I don't know how that's gonna play out,
1602
00:35:51.560 --> 00:35:51.719
um,
1603
00:35:51.800 --> 00:35:53.199
when it comes to the gubernatorial race.
1604
00:35:53.270 --> 00:35:53.320
I,
1605
00:35:53.399 --> 00:35:54.600
I think he's the underdog,
1606
00:35:54.669 --> 00:35:56.100
but I do think that also may hurt
1607
00:35:56.439 --> 00:35:57.580
Houston a little bit in the state,
1608
00:35:57.959 --> 00:35:58.070
uh,
1609
00:35:58.110 --> 00:35:58.840
as people kind of,
1610
00:35:58.949 --> 00:35:59.350
you know,
1611
00:35:59.639 --> 00:36:01.040
get angry about an ad.
1612
00:36:01.199 --> 00:36:01.500
OK,
1613
00:36:01.679 --> 00:36:02.040
Michigan,
1614
00:36:02.159 --> 00:36:02.879
El Sayed,
1615
00:36:03.000 --> 00:36:03.110
uh,
1616
00:36:03.199 --> 00:36:05.479
I think El Sayed going against Rodgers.
1617
00:36:05.580 --> 00:36:05.860
Huge poll,
1618
00:36:05.889 --> 00:36:06.520
as I mentioned,
1619
00:36:06.770 --> 00:36:07.100
the late,
1620
00:36:07.179 --> 00:36:09.600
the late polling for El Sayyed was massive.
1621
00:36:09.979 --> 00:36:12.389
I don't think the endorsement is gonna have too much of an impact.
1622
00:36:12.500 --> 00:36:12.780
Most,
1623
00:36:13.020 --> 00:36:14.439
about half the people have voted already
1624
00:36:14.739 --> 00:36:15.429
in the state.
1625
00:36:15.620 --> 00:36:17.820
I do think El Sayed will actually win this,
1626
00:36:17.899 --> 00:36:20.860
and I cannot believe that a person like El Sayed is gonna go into our Senate,
1627
00:36:20.939 --> 00:36:22.409
but like this is what the country is right now,
1628
00:36:22.419 --> 00:36:22.979
I suppose.
1629
00:36:23.300 --> 00:36:23.370
Uh,
1630
00:36:23.459 --> 00:36:23.899
El Sayyed,
1631
00:36:23.969 --> 00:36:25.250
lean Democrat for Ma.
1632
00:36:25.879 --> 00:36:26.419
Maine,
1633
00:36:27.060 --> 00:36:27.250
so real,
1634
00:36:27.340 --> 00:36:28.909
and we're getting into the real tough territory here.
1635
00:36:29.100 --> 00:36:29.620
Maine,
1636
00:36:30.179 --> 00:36:30.959
Susan Collins
1637
00:36:31.139 --> 00:36:32.659
has been able to do this over and over again.
1638
00:36:33.090 --> 00:36:35.000
And I've been thinking about this race a lot.
1639
00:36:35.260 --> 00:36:37.520
I have a position on Susan Collins to win it.
1640
00:36:37.979 --> 00:36:38.459
Um,
1641
00:36:38.739 --> 00:36:39.050
and I,
1642
00:36:39.300 --> 00:36:39.879
I
1643
00:36:40.280 --> 00:36:41.439
have felt good about that,
1644
00:36:41.860 --> 00:36:43.100
not necessarily for her to win,
1645
00:36:43.179 --> 00:36:44.209
but her to
1646
00:36:44.699 --> 00:36:46.419
have value in the low 30s,
1647
00:36:46.659 --> 00:36:47.719
which is where I bought it.
1648
00:36:48.020 --> 00:36:48.479
Um,
1649
00:36:48.620 --> 00:36:50.250
let's see if I can figure out where she is now.
1650
00:36:50.350 --> 00:36:51.459
Uh,
1651
00:36:51.580 --> 00:36:52.159
let's see.
1652
00:36:52.260 --> 00:36:52.739
Right now,
1653
00:36:52.760 --> 00:36:54.520
that market has it at,
1654
00:36:55.020 --> 00:36:55.389
uh,
1655
00:36:55.419 --> 00:36:57.669
7327,
1656
00:36:57.770 --> 00:36:58.199
uh,
1657
00:36:58.300 --> 00:36:58.689
um,
1658
00:36:58.820 --> 00:36:59.899
the favorite of Jackson.
1659
00:36:59.979 --> 00:37:01.699
That has moved quite a bit in the last week.
1660
00:37:02.300 --> 00:37:02.850
I,
1661
00:37:02.860 --> 00:37:03.409
uh,
1662
00:37:03.419 --> 00:37:03.800
don't.
1663
00:37:04.580 --> 00:37:04.979
I don't,
1664
00:37:05.139 --> 00:37:05.330
I don't,
1665
00:37:05.459 --> 00:37:05.739
I think,
1666
00:37:05.860 --> 00:37:06.300
you know what I,
1667
00:37:06.379 --> 00:37:09.600
I kept coming back to as I was thinking about this was something from the primaries.
1668
00:37:10.100 --> 00:37:11.540
A lot of people told me over and over again
1669
00:37:11.540 --> 00:37:13.330
that Thomas Massey was gonna be able to win his,
1670
00:37:13.419 --> 00:37:14.139
his,
1671
00:37:14.260 --> 00:37:14.689
uh,
1672
00:37:14.699 --> 00:37:16.879
race because he's done it so many times and he's always,
1673
00:37:17.020 --> 00:37:18.179
there's always been criticism and
1674
00:37:18.379 --> 00:37:19.020
at the last minute,
1675
00:37:19.100 --> 00:37:20.840
he always winds up winning it somehow.
1676
00:37:20.860 --> 00:37:21.209
And I,
1677
00:37:21.260 --> 00:37:21.340
I,
1678
00:37:21.419 --> 00:37:21.800
you know,
1679
00:37:22.139 --> 00:37:22.300
I,
1680
00:37:22.360 --> 00:37:22.580
I,
1681
00:37:22.699 --> 00:37:25.020
there's a reason to believe that argument is true.
1682
00:37:25.379 --> 00:37:26.860
I think this is the one that catches up with,
1683
00:37:26.979 --> 00:37:27.739
with Collins.
1684
00:37:27.959 --> 00:37:29.330
She has outperformed many,
1685
00:37:29.399 --> 00:37:30.080
many times.
1686
00:37:30.530 --> 00:37:31.040
Um,
1687
00:37:31.300 --> 00:37:32.350
but this is a,
1688
00:37:32.379 --> 00:37:33.250
a different environment,
1689
00:37:33.379 --> 00:37:36.000
and I think this race will go to lean Democrat
1690
00:37:36.820 --> 00:37:37.760
for Susan Collins.
1691
00:37:39.870 --> 00:37:40.469
Iowa,
1692
00:37:40.879 --> 00:37:40.979
again,
1693
00:37:41.030 --> 00:37:41.189
these,
1694
00:37:41.550 --> 00:37:42.189
these are all so close.
1695
00:37:42.270 --> 00:37:42.550
I don't know.
1696
00:37:42.669 --> 00:37:42.939
Iowa,
1697
00:37:42.989 --> 00:37:43.510
Ashley Hinson,
1698
00:37:43.629 --> 00:37:44.169
Josh Turrick,
1699
00:37:44.350 --> 00:37:44.580
um,
1700
00:37:44.790 --> 00:37:45.489
this is a candidate,
1701
00:37:45.590 --> 00:37:48.350
this is a situation where the Republicans probably have the better candidate.
1702
00:37:48.649 --> 00:37:50.629
This is not a candidate quality issue
1703
00:37:50.810 --> 00:37:51.580
in Iowa.
1704
00:37:51.800 --> 00:37:52.159
Um,
1705
00:37:52.370 --> 00:37:53.610
I can't believe this is close.
1706
00:37:53.729 --> 00:37:53.850
I,
1707
00:37:53.929 --> 00:37:56.050
this is one of my favorite picks leading into this election.
1708
00:37:56.129 --> 00:37:56.250
I,
1709
00:37:56.330 --> 00:37:56.399
I,
1710
00:37:56.459 --> 00:37:56.570
you know,
1711
00:37:56.770 --> 00:37:57.570
I'm always honest with you.
1712
00:37:57.639 --> 00:37:58.649
If I'm gonna lose these races,
1713
00:37:58.750 --> 00:37:58.850
uh,
1714
00:37:58.929 --> 00:37:59.010
uh,
1715
00:37:59.129 --> 00:37:59.330
you know,
1716
00:37:59.449 --> 00:38:00.239
I'll tell you about it.
1717
00:38:00.489 --> 00:38:00.919
If when I,
1718
00:38:01.010 --> 00:38:03.320
when the markets did not move the way that I thought they would,
1719
00:38:03.409 --> 00:38:04.320
I will tell you about it.
1720
00:38:04.610 --> 00:38:05.610
Ashley Hinson,
1721
00:38:05.709 --> 00:38:06.000
uh,
1722
00:38:06.129 --> 00:38:07.310
right now is a
1723
00:38:07.810 --> 00:38:10.090
48% underdog to 52%,
1724
00:38:10.159 --> 00:38:10.449
um,
1725
00:38:10.649 --> 00:38:10.889
for,
1726
00:38:10.949 --> 00:38:11.250
uh,
1727
00:38:11.500 --> 00:38:13.129
Josh Turk when it comes to the prediction markets.
1728
00:38:13.489 --> 00:38:16.090
I'm gonna buck that trend a little bit here and I'm gonna go with Ashley Hinson.
1729
00:38:16.149 --> 00:38:17.790
I'm gonna stay with my gut in this race.
1730
00:38:18.050 --> 00:38:21.290
I think Republicans will get out there and get her across the finish line barely.
1731
00:38:21.449 --> 00:38:23.189
I think they'll probably lose the gubernatorial race,
1732
00:38:23.729 --> 00:38:25.110
but I think they squeak it out here.
1733
00:38:25.330 --> 00:38:25.830
Uh,
1734
00:38:26.719 --> 00:38:27.280
Kansas.
1735
00:38:28.750 --> 00:38:29.209
Yeah.
1736
00:38:31.040 --> 00:38:31.300
Look,
1737
00:38:31.379 --> 00:38:31.800
I think
1738
00:38:31.929 --> 00:38:33.060
the problem here with Kansas,
1739
00:38:33.080 --> 00:38:34.000
if you're a Republican,
1740
00:38:34.020 --> 00:38:34.530
is that,
1741
00:38:34.560 --> 00:38:34.929
uh,
1742
00:38:35.060 --> 00:38:37.000
Marshall just isn't a great candidate.
1743
00:38:37.250 --> 00:38:37.379
Uh,
1744
00:38:37.459 --> 00:38:38.419
he has not done a good job.
1745
00:38:38.459 --> 00:38:39.919
He's not run a very good race.
1746
00:38:40.219 --> 00:38:42.719
It's been very weird behind the scenes from everything I've heard.
1747
00:38:42.969 --> 00:38:44.139
He's not great in the debates.
1748
00:38:44.219 --> 00:38:45.340
He's not great on camera.
1749
00:38:45.459 --> 00:38:45.580
He,
1750
00:38:45.780 --> 00:38:46.729
the ads aren't great.
1751
00:38:46.879 --> 00:38:47.530
Like it's just,
1752
00:38:47.699 --> 00:38:47.770
I,
1753
00:38:47.820 --> 00:38:47.899
I,
1754
00:38:47.979 --> 00:38:48.080
I,
1755
00:38:48.169 --> 00:38:49.419
this is a very winnable race that they're,
1756
00:38:49.500 --> 00:38:50.679
I think they're gonna wind up losing.
1757
00:38:51.139 --> 00:38:52.439
And the reason for that is Hamilton.
1758
00:38:53.060 --> 00:38:54.280
is a good enough speaker.
1759
00:38:54.330 --> 00:38:55.379
He's a great communicator.
1760
00:38:55.419 --> 00:38:56.620
He's a mega church pastor,
1761
00:38:56.699 --> 00:38:57.219
and I,
1762
00:38:57.340 --> 00:38:59.739
as hard as it to believe that a Democrat would go to Kansas,
1763
00:38:59.820 --> 00:39:01.199
or Kansas would go to a Democrat.
1764
00:39:01.699 --> 00:39:02.409
That's where I'm putting it.
1765
00:39:02.459 --> 00:39:05.459
I'm putting it in the lean Democratic category here.
1766
00:39:06.429 --> 00:39:07.510
And it's hard for me to believe,
1767
00:39:07.550 --> 00:39:07.639
I,
1768
00:39:07.739 --> 00:39:08.030
by the way,
1769
00:39:08.149 --> 00:39:09.870
have a position on Marshall.
1770
00:39:09.909 --> 00:39:10.689
It's not a big one.
1771
00:39:11.030 --> 00:39:11.939
Took it a long time ago,
1772
00:39:12.090 --> 00:39:13.219
really thought he would hold on to that,
1773
00:39:13.379 --> 00:39:14.040
but honestly,
1774
00:39:14.149 --> 00:39:16.729
that's where my gut is right now is that he's gonna wind up losing.
1775
00:39:17.540 --> 00:39:17.969
And finally,
1776
00:39:17.989 --> 00:39:18.729
we go to Texas.
1777
00:39:19.149 --> 00:39:19.949
I'm in Texas.
1778
00:39:20.070 --> 00:39:21.149
I've watched all the ads.
1779
00:39:21.229 --> 00:39:21.669
I feel,
1780
00:39:21.790 --> 00:39:23.469
I feel the race every single day.
1781
00:39:23.669 --> 00:39:24.810
Every single time you go to commercial,
1782
00:39:24.870 --> 00:39:25.750
it's like Flem Lasky,
1783
00:39:25.790 --> 00:39:26.790
Velveeta all over again,
1784
00:39:27.010 --> 00:39:28.100
commercials back and forth,
1785
00:39:28.189 --> 00:39:29.060
fighting with each other,
1786
00:39:29.469 --> 00:39:30.070
going back and forth.
1787
00:39:30.110 --> 00:39:31.270
It's just ridiculous.
1788
00:39:32.179 --> 00:39:32.959
That to be said,
1789
00:39:33.219 --> 00:39:33.860
uh,
1790
00:39:34.560 --> 00:39:35.580
It's hard to believe
1791
00:39:36.159 --> 00:39:37.580
that Ken Paxton could lose this race.
1792
00:39:37.840 --> 00:39:38.500
If he did,
1793
00:39:38.919 --> 00:39:39.969
between him and El Sayed,
1794
00:39:40.070 --> 00:39:40.189
if,
1795
00:39:40.280 --> 00:39:41.639
if either one of these guys loses the race,
1796
00:39:41.719 --> 00:39:44.419
they will be studied for generations as to how to blow
1797
00:39:44.760 --> 00:39:45.500
a Senate race,
1798
00:39:45.520 --> 00:39:47.479
and Ham Marshall will be in that conversation too.
1799
00:39:47.840 --> 00:39:48.320
Right now,
1800
00:39:48.520 --> 00:39:50.179
overwhelming favorite is Tallarico,
1801
00:39:50.310 --> 00:39:50.590
uh,
1802
00:39:50.679 --> 00:39:51.520
to win Texas.
1803
00:39:51.959 --> 00:39:54.120
He is a 74% favorite,
1804
00:39:54.270 --> 00:39:56.300
26% chance for Paxton
1805
00:39:56.500 --> 00:39:56.959
to win.
1806
00:39:57.159 --> 00:39:58.439
My entire thesis on this race,
1807
00:39:58.520 --> 00:39:59.139
and I had an,
1808
00:39:59.149 --> 00:39:59.790
I had a,
1809
00:39:59.800 --> 00:40:00.399
a position on this,
1810
00:40:00.439 --> 00:40:02.399
which I have been shrinking over the over time.
1811
00:40:03.020 --> 00:40:03.360
That
1812
00:40:03.659 --> 00:40:06.159
there is no way Texas is gonna do this.
1813
00:40:06.379 --> 00:40:07.260
I just can't imagine it.
1814
00:40:08.199 --> 00:40:11.129
But what kind of convinced me on this is the Republican freak out index
1815
00:40:11.560 --> 00:40:12.899
where the #1,
1816
00:40:13.479 --> 00:40:14.050
um,
1817
00:40:14.120 --> 00:40:16.429
state for all these negative effects for Republicans,
1818
00:40:16.510 --> 00:40:17.070
tariffs,
1819
00:40:17.149 --> 00:40:17.360
uh,
1820
00:40:17.520 --> 00:40:18.070
younger voters,
1821
00:40:18.149 --> 00:40:19.149
Hispanic voters,
1822
00:40:19.219 --> 00:40:19.739
um,
1823
00:40:20.080 --> 00:40:20.520
uh,
1824
00:40:20.600 --> 00:40:20.840
you know,
1825
00:40:20.919 --> 00:40:21.129
uh,
1826
00:40:21.199 --> 00:40:21.840
gas prices,
1827
00:40:21.959 --> 00:40:22.239
diesel,
1828
00:40:22.320 --> 00:40:23.000
all this stuff.
1829
00:40:23.320 --> 00:40:27.120
The #1 state with the most impact from those bad features for Republicans is Texas.
1830
00:40:27.360 --> 00:40:28.979
Texas and Michigan are the two top ones.
1831
00:40:29.439 --> 00:40:29.510
Uh,
1832
00:40:29.600 --> 00:40:30.479
Iowa's by like 6,
1833
00:40:30.560 --> 00:40:30.879
by the way.
1834
00:40:31.250 --> 00:40:31.489
Um,
1835
00:40:31.570 --> 00:40:32.399
all that to be said is,
1836
00:40:32.449 --> 00:40:33.030
I think
1837
00:40:33.169 --> 00:40:34.030
at the end of the day,
1838
00:40:34.209 --> 00:40:35.409
as crazy as it sounds,
1839
00:40:35.530 --> 00:40:38.250
I think Texas winds up going to Tallarico.
1840
00:40:38.610 --> 00:40:38.919
Uh,
1841
00:40:38.969 --> 00:40:39.709
I don't like it.
1842
00:40:39.850 --> 00:40:42.669
I'm going to be very annoyed for six years about it.
1843
00:40:43.840 --> 00:40:45.030
But I think that's where it goes.
1844
00:40:45.489 --> 00:40:47.929
None of those I feel anything in the lean column,
1845
00:40:47.969 --> 00:40:49.889
I do not feel massively confident about.
1846
00:40:49.939 --> 00:40:51.350
I could see them going either way.
1847
00:40:51.689 --> 00:40:51.969
Um,
1848
00:40:52.050 --> 00:40:52.909
but that's where I see.
1849
00:40:52.929 --> 00:40:53.290
Now,
1850
00:40:53.570 --> 00:40:54.350
where are we now,
1851
00:40:54.489 --> 00:40:54.689
Adam,
1852
00:40:54.770 --> 00:40:56.449
let's scroll up to the top and see what our count is.
1853
00:40:56.570 --> 00:40:57.199
Final count,
1854
00:40:57.439 --> 00:40:58.149
wow,
1855
00:40:58.649 --> 00:41:00.070
53 Democrats,
1856
00:41:00.330 --> 00:41:01.770
47 Republicans.
1857
00:41:02.649 --> 00:41:03.300
That's my feel.
1858
00:41:03.360 --> 00:41:04.399
If you think I'm an idiot,
1859
00:41:04.570 --> 00:41:04.969
I get it,
1860
00:41:05.080 --> 00:41:05.750
and that's OK.
1861
00:41:05.969 --> 00:41:06.629
You think I've been,
1862
00:41:06.689 --> 00:41:07.169
uh,
1863
00:41:07.290 --> 00:41:07.479
I'm,
1864
00:41:07.489 --> 00:41:09.090
I'm utilized for the,
1865
00:41:09.409 --> 00:41:09.800
uh,
1866
00:41:09.929 --> 00:41:10.850
for the Democrats,
1867
00:41:10.929 --> 00:41:12.929
if you think I'm being utilized for the Republicans,
1868
00:41:13.000 --> 00:41:13.830
whatever you think,
1869
00:41:14.290 --> 00:41:14.689
it's OK.
1870
00:41:14.810 --> 00:41:16.610
The great thing about prediction markets is you can just
1871
00:41:16.610 --> 00:41:18.399
go on with your money and make it and put,
1872
00:41:18.850 --> 00:41:19.629
take your stance.
1873
00:41:19.929 --> 00:41:20.520
Go for it.
1874
00:41:20.729 --> 00:41:23.040
Put your money where your mouth is and go take my money,
1875
00:41:23.250 --> 00:41:25.629
cause some of those positions I've got money on,
1876
00:41:26.050 --> 00:41:28.250
and you can go be my counterparty if you like.
1877
00:41:28.689 --> 00:41:29.020
Um,
1878
00:41:29.100 --> 00:41:29.370
but
1879
00:41:29.500 --> 00:41:30.310
that's what I feel.
1880
00:41:30.459 --> 00:41:30.699
That's,
1881
00:41:30.810 --> 00:41:30.939
you know,
1882
00:41:31.060 --> 00:41:31.370
again,
1883
00:41:31.540 --> 00:41:32.459
these are gut check things.
1884
00:41:32.580 --> 00:41:32.760
If,
1885
00:41:32.780 --> 00:41:33.780
when it comes to prediction markets,
1886
00:41:33.820 --> 00:41:35.399
I'd like to stay out of those columns completely.
1887
00:41:35.459 --> 00:41:36.560
I don't want the risk.
1888
00:41:36.939 --> 00:41:37.100
Uh,
1889
00:41:37.260 --> 00:41:37.620
but
1890
00:41:37.820 --> 00:41:39.580
when it comes to having to put my money where
1891
00:41:39.580 --> 00:41:41.139
my mouth is to put these things into categories,
1892
00:41:41.219 --> 00:41:41.889
that's where I have it.
1893
00:41:42.159 --> 00:41:42.370
Democrats,
1894
00:41:42.379 --> 00:41:43.090
53,
1895
00:41:43.679 --> 00:41:43.860
Republicans,
1896
00:41:43.899 --> 00:41:44.379
47.
1897
00:41:44.459 --> 00:41:44.870
Back in a minute.
1898
00:41:56.679 --> 00:41:57.090
OK,
1899
00:41:57.250 --> 00:42:00.729
so let me go through a few of the gubernatorial races here quickly.
1900
00:42:00.830 --> 00:42:01.120
Um,
1901
00:42:01.250 --> 00:42:01.610
Texas,
1902
00:42:01.729 --> 00:42:02.510
I think
1903
00:42:02.689 --> 00:42:04.030
Abbott holds on to Texas.
1904
00:42:04.649 --> 00:42:04.929
Um,
1905
00:42:05.050 --> 00:42:06.530
and I'm gonna say the same thing about Florida.
1906
00:42:06.649 --> 00:42:09.310
I think the Republicans hold on to both of those races.
1907
00:42:09.570 --> 00:42:09.770
Uh,
1908
00:42:10.209 --> 00:42:10.530
in,
1909
00:42:10.600 --> 00:42:10.729
uh,
1910
00:42:10.800 --> 00:42:11.040
Florida,
1911
00:42:11.050 --> 00:42:12.030
it would be Donald's,
1912
00:42:12.290 --> 00:42:12.409
uh,
1913
00:42:12.489 --> 00:42:12.919
to win.
1914
00:42:13.050 --> 00:42:13.379
They're very,
1915
00:42:13.449 --> 00:42:13.969
very close.
1916
00:42:14.090 --> 00:42:17.719
There is massive profit to be made in those two markets if those are right.
1917
00:42:18.050 --> 00:42:18.169
I mean,
1918
00:42:18.209 --> 00:42:18.629
you're talking,
1919
00:42:18.949 --> 00:42:19.169
you know,
1920
00:42:19.570 --> 00:42:21.370
67% profit in a day.
1921
00:42:21.750 --> 00:42:22.199
On those.
1922
00:42:22.320 --> 00:42:24.520
I'm nervous about both of them at some level.
1923
00:42:24.600 --> 00:42:27.500
I'm less nervous about Florida than Texas,
1924
00:42:27.959 --> 00:42:28.379
um,
1925
00:42:28.679 --> 00:42:29.929
which is weird cause I think,
1926
00:42:30.060 --> 00:42:30.080
you know,
1927
00:42:30.159 --> 00:42:30.439
it's,
1928
00:42:30.639 --> 00:42:30.649
uh,
1929
00:42:30.800 --> 00:42:31.300
you know,
1930
00:42:31.639 --> 00:42:33.919
Greg Abbott's been the governor of Texas for like 100 years.
1931
00:42:34.189 --> 00:42:34.409
Um,
1932
00:42:34.520 --> 00:42:34.889
but
1933
00:42:35.120 --> 00:42:37.469
it's because of the way that everything else is breaking.
1934
00:42:37.540 --> 00:42:38.360
I think there's a,
1935
00:42:38.399 --> 00:42:40.350
a good firewall for Florida and,
1936
00:42:40.360 --> 00:42:41.479
and that's certainly where my money is,
1937
00:42:41.600 --> 00:42:42.699
where my mouth is on that one.
1938
00:42:43.219 --> 00:42:43.590
Iowa,
1939
00:42:43.639 --> 00:42:44.340
I think,
1940
00:42:44.600 --> 00:42:45.080
uh,
1941
00:42:45.199 --> 00:42:46.780
I think Sand probably holds that one.
1942
00:42:47.560 --> 00:42:48.120
and Oregon,
1943
00:42:48.199 --> 00:42:49.459
I think Kottech holds it.
1944
00:42:49.989 --> 00:42:52.270
So just those are races that you've been paying attention to.
1945
00:42:52.340 --> 00:42:53.729
As far as the house goes,
1946
00:42:54.110 --> 00:42:54.770
um,
1947
00:42:55.629 --> 00:42:55.989
And by the way,
1948
00:42:56.060 --> 00:42:57.020
if you have any other requests on this,
1949
00:42:57.030 --> 00:42:58.030
you go to predictableShow.com,
1950
00:42:58.149 --> 00:42:59.149
drop it in the in the chat,
1951
00:42:59.229 --> 00:43:00.429
and I'll try to answer as many comments,
1952
00:43:00.469 --> 00:43:00.620
uh,
1953
00:43:00.669 --> 00:43:00.979
if I have,
1954
00:43:01.050 --> 00:43:02.070
if I've left the race out.
1955
00:43:02.340 --> 00:43:04.219
As far as the House goes,
1956
00:43:04.469 --> 00:43:06.090
I think the Democrats will win the House.
1957
00:43:06.310 --> 00:43:07.449
I think they will win the Senate.
1958
00:43:07.750 --> 00:43:07.969
Um,
1959
00:43:08.030 --> 00:43:09.250
I think they will win the House
1960
00:43:09.669 --> 00:43:10.389
with a.
1961
00:43:11.879 --> 00:43:12.629
Significant,
1962
00:43:12.679 --> 00:43:15.840
but not like massive mega tsunami type margin.
1963
00:43:16.000 --> 00:43:16.370
So,
1964
00:43:16.679 --> 00:43:16.840
uh,
1965
00:43:16.909 --> 00:43:19.260
218 is the break-even point for this.
1966
00:43:19.320 --> 00:43:20.040
I have the,
1967
00:43:20.159 --> 00:43:20.300
the,
1968
00:43:20.360 --> 00:43:22.479
the Democrats getting to 237,
1969
00:43:22.560 --> 00:43:24.030
which is pretty high actually.
1970
00:43:24.280 --> 00:43:25.820
Higher than I thought I was gonna be on it.
1971
00:43:26.120 --> 00:43:27.780
I toyed around with 233.
1972
00:43:28.050 --> 00:43:28.679
At some level,
1973
00:43:28.760 --> 00:43:30.389
you're just kind of making up numbers at this point,
1974
00:43:30.439 --> 00:43:31.969
but I'm going with 237.
1975
00:43:32.199 --> 00:43:33.419
It's a little high,
1976
00:43:33.479 --> 00:43:34.340
and I think it's
1977
00:43:34.780 --> 00:43:35.949
possibly too high,
1978
00:43:36.290 --> 00:43:37.159
but that's what I'm gonna go.
1979
00:43:37.239 --> 00:43:38.620
237 in the house
1980
00:43:39.000 --> 00:43:39.560
as my number.
1981
00:43:39.669 --> 00:43:41.179
If you want one long shot race,
1982
00:43:41.780 --> 00:43:42.659
Let me give you one long shot.
1983
00:43:42.739 --> 00:43:44.110
We're looking for something under,
1984
00:43:44.189 --> 00:43:44.729
let's say,
1985
00:43:45.060 --> 00:43:45.340
you know,
1986
00:43:45.469 --> 00:43:46.709
35% or so,
1987
00:43:46.870 --> 00:43:47.030
you know,
1988
00:43:47.149 --> 00:43:48.310
less than 1 in 3 chance.
1989
00:43:48.679 --> 00:43:49.669
If I'm gonna pick one of those.
1990
00:43:50.790 --> 00:43:51.449
I'm gonna pick
1991
00:43:51.750 --> 00:43:52.489
uh
1992
00:43:52.699 --> 00:43:52.989
Janu.
1993
00:43:53.879 --> 00:43:54.310
No Janu
1994
00:43:54.919 --> 00:43:55.610
is good Jane,
1995
00:43:56.669 --> 00:43:57.409
like Amanda Jane,
1996
00:43:58.120 --> 00:43:59.080
and she is,
1997
00:43:59.320 --> 00:44:00.520
I don't know what that reference is from,
1998
00:44:00.600 --> 00:44:01.669
but something from my childhood.
1999
00:44:01.919 --> 00:44:02.159
Anyway,
2000
00:44:02.239 --> 00:44:02.810
it's Gary Gnu,
2001
00:44:03.520 --> 00:44:03.959
um.
2002
00:44:05.260 --> 00:44:06.120
She is the
2003
00:44:07.219 --> 00:44:09.050
Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Vermont,
2004
00:44:09.060 --> 00:44:09.350
and you're like,
2005
00:44:09.409 --> 00:44:09.699
wait a minute,
2006
00:44:09.770 --> 00:44:10.250
does Vermont have,
2007
00:44:10.659 --> 00:44:11.820
they have a Republican actually,
2008
00:44:11.939 --> 00:44:12.870
very popular Republican,
2009
00:44:13.000 --> 00:44:14.659
wins usually by 30 or 40 points.
2010
00:44:14.739 --> 00:44:16.540
I'm worried about this one for him this time though.
2011
00:44:16.580 --> 00:44:16.899
If I were him,
2012
00:44:16.959 --> 00:44:17.389
I'd be worried.
2013
00:44:17.459 --> 00:44:17.739
He's like,
2014
00:44:18.060 --> 00:44:19.419
last I saw like 27%,
2015
00:44:19.500 --> 00:44:20.800
so there's your long shot pick,
2016
00:44:21.100 --> 00:44:21.290
uh,
2017
00:44:21.300 --> 00:44:22.780
if you wanna throw a little bit of money that you can,
2018
00:44:22.860 --> 00:44:23.770
you can maybe lose.
2019
00:44:23.899 --> 00:44:24.100
OK,
2020
00:44:24.219 --> 00:44:24.800
gonna take a break.
2021
00:44:25.060 --> 00:44:25.739
Back in a second.
2022
00:44:35.360 --> 00:44:36.530
6:45 Eastern time,
2023
00:44:36.610 --> 00:44:37.610
we start our election coverage,
2024
00:44:37.679 --> 00:44:38.649
PredictableShow.com,
2025
00:44:38.729 --> 00:44:39.090
YouTube,
2026
00:44:39.129 --> 00:44:39.729
everywhere else.
2027
00:44:39.889 --> 00:44:41.199
Find us and join us.
2028
00:44:41.649 --> 00:44:43.149
If you've ever had a moment on election night
2029
00:44:43.290 --> 00:44:44.840
where you're sitting there looking at the numbers and you're like,
2030
00:44:44.969 --> 00:44:45.169
gosh,
2031
00:44:45.290 --> 00:44:46.360
but I see what they are now,
2032
00:44:46.429 --> 00:44:47.510
but where are they gonna move?
2033
00:44:47.610 --> 00:44:49.810
Are they gonna get more Democratic or are they gonna get more Republican?
2034
00:44:50.169 --> 00:44:51.169
We built a tool for that.
2035
00:44:51.239 --> 00:44:53.889
It's part of your PredictableShow.com premium subscription.
2036
00:44:54.489 --> 00:44:56.300
If you wanna know those answers in advance
2037
00:44:56.459 --> 00:44:57.959
and get the best information possible,
2038
00:44:58.139 --> 00:44:59.379
I can't recommend this highly enough.
2039
00:44:59.459 --> 00:45:00.219
Can we show this real quick?
2040
00:45:00.260 --> 00:45:01.060
This is what it looks like.
2041
00:45:01.300 --> 00:45:02.250
Let's win election night,
2042
00:45:02.419 --> 00:45:03.179
an election guide to,
2043
00:45:03.219 --> 00:45:03.449
uh,
2044
00:45:03.459 --> 00:45:03.979
winning the results.
2045
00:45:04.060 --> 00:45:05.469
If you scroll down to this first graph,
2046
00:45:05.699 --> 00:45:05.899
uh,
2047
00:45:06.020 --> 00:45:06.689
let's pick a state like,
2048
00:45:06.780 --> 00:45:07.459
let's pick Ohio.
2049
00:45:07.540 --> 00:45:09.959
You'll see these graphs kind of draw in as we go.
2050
00:45:10.330 --> 00:45:10.820
Um,
2051
00:45:11.179 --> 00:45:14.020
these are results from previous years by time.
2052
00:45:14.330 --> 00:45:15.709
They show you exactly
2053
00:45:15.929 --> 00:45:17.489
where it starts out in Ohio,
2054
00:45:17.570 --> 00:45:18.060
for example,
2055
00:45:18.370 --> 00:45:20.389
more Democratic and moves the other way.
2056
00:45:20.610 --> 00:45:22.580
Important information to know for election
2057
00:45:22.580 --> 00:45:24.010
results and prediction markets for sure.
2058
00:45:24.090 --> 00:45:24.949
That's all the time we have.
2059
00:45:25.129 --> 00:45:26.320
PredictableShow.com,
2060
00:45:26.439 --> 00:45:27.370
can't recommend it enough.
2061
00:45:27.649 --> 00:45:28.270
Come join us,
2062
00:45:28.370 --> 00:45:29.370
be a premium subscriber.
2063
00:45:29.610 --> 00:45:30.169
We'll see you later.