FINAL Pre-Panic Day Senate Board Check-In (NO TOSS-UPS)

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We are almost out of time before panic day.
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Yes,
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Monday,
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October 19th.
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Uh,
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I'm gonna reset my,
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uh,
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Senate board one final time,
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not based on my own predictions here,
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but
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based on the data.
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What's the consensus opinion,
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and we're gonna lose all the toss-ups.
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We're gonna give you
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what the consensus is projecting
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right now
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for control of the Senate.
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We also have legendary prediction market trade.
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PMT on the program.
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He's gonna be returning to give us a lowdown on his mid-term investment strategy.
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And is Elon Musk going to reveal a flying car?
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Uh,
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is that possible?
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Uh,
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probably not,
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but I don't know,
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I'm gonna watch anyway cause it sounds like it's gonna
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be fascinating and we can have lots of fun with it
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in the markets.
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I have a position there.
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All that and more coming up on Predictable with Stu.
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Welcome
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to Predictable
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with Stu.
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We appreciate you joining us.
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Go to Senatefantasy.com,
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get in on the Senate Fantasy League that we've got going on
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right now.
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Kind of a fun way for you to
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participate in prediction markets without any risk whatsoever.
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Yes,
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we've taken the bad side out,
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the losing,
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and the good side in,
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winning money.
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Yeah,
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we'll fund your prediction market account
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if you're able to get towards the top of that particular
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contest.
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It's available for free,
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Senate Fantasy.com.
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Just,
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you know,
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you don't have to know everything about every race.
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Just go in there,
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it takes 5 minutes,
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uh,
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and uh you can pick a few candidates.
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We have 19 days until
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the midterm elections.
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Early voting already happening in 21 states.
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And as I kind of mentioned in the open.
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We're only a few days away
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from panic day.
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People kept asking me,
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hey,
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uh,
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you know,
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is it time to panic yet?
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Is it time to panic?
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Most of my conservative,
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uh,
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Republican,
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uh,
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friends are feeling that way right now.
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Understandably.
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It doesn't look like a good year for Republicans.
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Is it time to panic it?
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Is it time to panic on my prediction market positions?
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I took a bunch of them thinking one thing would happen.
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Is it time to panic on Ter or,
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uh,
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Paxton?
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Is it time to panic on Hinson?
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Is it time to
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panic on Rogers?
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All these questions come in all the time.
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And I said,
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no,
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no.
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It's not time to panic.
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Panic Day
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is October 19th.
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Why is it October 19th?
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It's my show,
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so I get to make up anything I want.
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It's kind of fun.
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Uh,
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Octo
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October 19th,
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I,
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I made that up,
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first of all,
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to be,
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to have an answer to the question because I
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don't know whether you should panic or not.
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Um,
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but I will also say,
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uh,
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it gave me a nice kind of,
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uh,
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cushion to,
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to.
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To say,
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hey,
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like,
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look,
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wait,
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be patient.
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One of the things you have to do on prediction markets,
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oftentimes is to
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be patient and not let every little bit of hype
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move you.
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A lot of times you have to move past it.
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I,
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we talked about that,
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uh,
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the other day with a couple of candidates who are having
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troubles in their uh elections but are still the heavy favorites.
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Don't bail on those positions necessarily.
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Uh,
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you want to make sure you're understanding and taking a sober approach.
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That's what we try to do here,
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uh,
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all the time.
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Um,
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so,
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uh,
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well,
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you know,
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maybe,
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uh,
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a couple of drinks here and there,
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but generally speaking,
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a sober approach.
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So,
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what I wanted to do,
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uh,
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today,
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today,
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and October 19th is,
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um,
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is a panic day.
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So on Monday,
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I will go through
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what my thinking is.
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This weekend,
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I'm gonna spend a bunch of time going through a risk
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analysis and really trying to see where am I vulnerable,
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what position don't I like as much as I like,
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as I took when I,
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uh,
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you know,
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as I did when I took the position.
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Cause these are long-term positions.
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Some of them I took 6 months ago.
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I wanna make sure I'm lined up
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to where I want to be.
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So,
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I'm gonna do that and I'm gonna come back and talk to you about that.
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I'll tell you,
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hey,
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I think this one's safe,
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I think this one's dangerous,
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you know,
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buyer beware,
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and we'll go over all of that
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on October 19th,
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that is Monday.
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Today,
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I thought we'd set the table for that.
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Uh,
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and set the table for where we are for the Senate because
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the Senate is kind of the highest profile thing going on.
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Lots of great governor races,
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House races as well.
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The House is kind of seen as one that's maybe a lost cause for Republicans.
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Prediction markets put that in the 90% area,
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so maybe not as,
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uh,
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exciting,
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uh,
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if you are looking at that as far as control goes.
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Though,
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again,
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10% chance is not nothing.
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Uh,
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but a 90% chance is,
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uh,
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you know,
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pretty,
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pretty one-sided.
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The Senate is more like a 60/40 situation in a lot of these,
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uh,
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situations.
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So I thought what we could do,
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and we have this up at predictableShow.com.
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If you're a premium subscriber,
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you see every single Senate race
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and you get the analysis of the,
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not the PMT,
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our guests coming up,
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but the PMC,
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which is our predictable midterm consensus.
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This is a consensus,
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not of my opinion,
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not even of prediction markets.
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But of
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all the experts,
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all the data,
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we're talking polling averages,
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we are talking,
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uh,
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fundamentals,
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fundraising,
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um,
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you know,
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uh,
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history,
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and,
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uh,
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you know,
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fully built election models all kind of coming together.
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Into one number.
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So you can
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not get the sense of like,
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well,
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MSNBC highlights the best numbers for Democrats.
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Fox News highlights the best for Republicans.
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I don't know if that's true,
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but,
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you know,
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you get the,
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you get the sense of,
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uh,
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that stuff happens sometimes.
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You wanna get all of it together,
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the place to go is the PMC.
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I have abs I'm completely agnostic to this.
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All I do is input the data.
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And run the model.
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Um,
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so that's what we're doing,
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uh,
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here.
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And I wanna give you a sense,
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if you're not a paid subscriber,
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you can't see these numbers on a day to day basis.
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I want to tell you
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where
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everything stands,
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and this will give us a final control.
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And one thing I'm not gonna do here.
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Normally,
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when I would do this,
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I would say,
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OK,
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these 5 races are toss-up races or whatever.
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No toss-ups.
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We're throwing the toss-up column
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out of the window.
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We're gonna take,
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we're gonna put it,
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start everything right there in the middle,
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and we're gonna move it all out to the outside so you
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have an idea as to where it stands at this very moment,
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19 days
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before
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the election.
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Let's do that.
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We're gonna start with the biggest blowouts.
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These,
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these are the ones that are,
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uh,
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supposed to be the easy ones.
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They're supposed to be the ones that are way over the line,
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you know,
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we're gonna start at,
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you know,
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almost 100% chances
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here.
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And let's bring up the Senate board.
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Do we have that,
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00:05:47.750 --> 00:05:48.190
Adam?
294
00:05:48.760 --> 00:05:48.959
Uh,
295
00:05:49.019 --> 00:05:50.429
the Senate board is available for you,
296
00:05:50.510 --> 00:05:50.760
by the way,
297
00:05:50.839 --> 00:05:51.579
to play with
298
00:05:51.880 --> 00:05:52.339
at
299
00:05:52.480 --> 00:05:53.839
predictableshow.com.
300
00:05:53.880 --> 00:05:55.380
This is a totally free tool,
301
00:05:55.519 --> 00:05:57.220
and you'll see at the top of the Senate board
302
00:05:57.519 --> 00:05:59.279
where control is right now.
303
00:05:59.390 --> 00:06:01.119
34 Democrats are locked in.
304
00:06:01.230 --> 00:06:02.160
They're not up for election.
305
00:06:02.239 --> 00:06:03.720
31 Republicans are locked in.
306
00:06:03.779 --> 00:06:04.920
They are not up for election.
307
00:06:05.200 --> 00:06:07.059
So it's 34 to 31 to start,
308
00:06:07.480 --> 00:06:09.220
and we have 35 seats left
309
00:06:09.600 --> 00:06:10.500
to figure out.
310
00:06:10.720 --> 00:06:11.109
Um,
311
00:06:11.209 --> 00:06:12.160
that is the,
312
00:06:12.320 --> 00:06:13.040
the board and,
313
00:06:13.079 --> 00:06:13.799
and how it works.
314
00:06:13.880 --> 00:06:16.839
We have everything started right now into the toss-up column.
315
00:06:17.109 --> 00:06:18.109
And we'll start at the,
316
00:06:18.239 --> 00:06:19.709
what we think are the biggest blowouts
317
00:06:19.709 --> 00:06:22.630
and Massachusetts actually came in as number one
318
00:06:22.910 --> 00:06:25.290
at 99.6% chance.
319
00:06:25.579 --> 00:06:26.959
That is Ed Markey,
320
00:06:27.209 --> 00:06:27.380
uh,
321
00:06:27.470 --> 00:06:28.010
to win,
322
00:06:28.489 --> 00:06:28.820
uh,
323
00:06:28.929 --> 00:06:30.429
over John Deaton
324
00:06:30.670 --> 00:06:30.929
in,
325
00:06:30.989 --> 00:06:31.140
uh,
326
00:06:31.190 --> 00:06:33.269
we'll bring that over to solid Democrat,
327
00:06:33.420 --> 00:06:34.079
of course,
328
00:06:34.239 --> 00:06:34.549
uh,
329
00:06:34.769 --> 00:06:35.070
there.
330
00:06:35.190 --> 00:06:35.420
So,
331
00:06:35.500 --> 00:06:35.869
uh,
332
00:06:35.989 --> 00:06:38.829
and we'll just kind of watch this and we'll watch the control at the very,
333
00:06:38.940 --> 00:06:39.540
very end.
334
00:06:39.910 --> 00:06:40.470
Rhode Island,
335
00:06:40.630 --> 00:06:41.190
Jack Reed,
336
00:06:41.350 --> 00:06:41.500
heavy,
337
00:06:41.589 --> 00:06:42.029
heavy favorite,
338
00:06:42.109 --> 00:06:43.609
99.6%.
339
00:06:43.899 --> 00:06:46.140
On the predictable midterm consensus,
340
00:06:46.220 --> 00:06:48.399
he moves to the solid Democrat column
341
00:06:48.619 --> 00:06:49.059
as well,
342
00:06:49.140 --> 00:06:51.140
but it's not all bad news for Republicans,
343
00:06:51.260 --> 00:06:51.739
of course.
344
00:06:51.820 --> 00:06:53.040
We have some other states,
345
00:06:53.329 --> 00:06:53.529
uh,
346
00:06:53.609 --> 00:06:55.859
that are gonna go the opposite direction that are heavy favorites.
347
00:06:55.980 --> 00:06:57.019
Shelley Moore Capito,
348
00:06:57.140 --> 00:07:00.940
she's at 99.6% as a Republican to win in West Virginia,
349
00:07:01.179 --> 00:07:02.920
and she will move over to the solid
350
00:07:03.609 --> 00:07:04.079
Republican
351
00:07:04.220 --> 00:07:04.940
category.
352
00:07:05.390 --> 00:07:05.670
Uh,
353
00:07:05.750 --> 00:07:07.049
and another one at,
354
00:07:07.149 --> 00:07:07.579
uh,
355
00:07:07.670 --> 00:07:07.790
you know,
356
00:07:07.910 --> 00:07:08.019
this,
357
00:07:08.119 --> 00:07:08.820
these are no surprises,
358
00:07:08.869 --> 00:07:09.070
of course,
359
00:07:09.190 --> 00:07:09.700
Wyoming,
360
00:07:10.390 --> 00:07:13.390
Harriet Harriet Hageman at 99.6% chance as well,
361
00:07:13.779 --> 00:07:14.660
says the predictable market,
362
00:07:14.720 --> 00:07:14.730
uh,
363
00:07:14.750 --> 00:07:16.309
midterm consensus.
364
00:07:16.510 --> 00:07:18.890
99.6% will go to a solid Republican,
365
00:07:19.350 --> 00:07:19.420
uh,
366
00:07:19.429 --> 00:07:19.839
as well.
367
00:07:19.950 --> 00:07:22.190
So the first four states split 2 to 2.
368
00:07:22.670 --> 00:07:22.820
Uh,
369
00:07:22.950 --> 00:07:25.269
Delaware is another one going to the Democrats.
370
00:07:25.350 --> 00:07:29.769
This is a 99.4% chance for Chris Coons to win according to
371
00:07:29.989 --> 00:07:31.369
all of the data.
372
00:07:31.709 --> 00:07:32.190
Uh,
373
00:07:32.390 --> 00:07:33.230
Chris Coons goes to the,
374
00:07:33.269 --> 00:07:33.470
uh,
375
00:07:33.609 --> 00:07:33.869
of course,
376
00:07:33.950 --> 00:07:34.910
the Democratic side.
377
00:07:35.359 --> 00:07:35.589
Uh,
378
00:07:35.679 --> 00:07:36.380
and,
379
00:07:36.390 --> 00:07:36.839
uh thank you very much,
380
00:07:36.920 --> 00:07:37.190
Adam.
381
00:07:37.320 --> 00:07:37.910
Um,
382
00:07:38.059 --> 00:07:39.720
Oklahoma going the opposite direction.
383
00:07:39.839 --> 00:07:40.399
Kevin Hearn,
384
00:07:40.459 --> 00:07:42.200
99.4% chance.
385
00:07:42.230 --> 00:07:44.640
There's a little more value in the gubernatorial election
386
00:07:44.640 --> 00:07:46.600
potentially for you if you're interested in Oklahoma.
387
00:07:46.839 --> 00:07:48.760
That of course goes to the other side to the Republican,
388
00:07:49.079 --> 00:07:50.059
solid Republican
389
00:07:50.440 --> 00:07:51.649
for that race.
390
00:07:51.920 --> 00:07:52.040
Uh,
391
00:07:52.160 --> 00:07:52.279
again,
392
00:07:52.320 --> 00:07:53.529
you see how many of these are like,
393
00:07:53.920 --> 00:07:54.130
they're not,
394
00:07:54.200 --> 00:07:54.820
people aren't even
395
00:07:55.079 --> 00:07:55.630
doubting them,
396
00:07:55.679 --> 00:07:55.809
right?
397
00:07:56.000 --> 00:07:57.700
Over 99% chance already.
398
00:07:57.959 --> 00:07:58.119
Uh,
399
00:07:58.190 --> 00:07:58.769
we go to,
400
00:07:58.839 --> 00:07:59.040
uh,
401
00:07:59.149 --> 00:07:59.750
Oregon,
402
00:07:59.839 --> 00:08:00.049
uh,
403
00:08:00.279 --> 00:08:01.760
this will go to solid Democrat,
404
00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:02.279
9.
405
00:08:02.470 --> 00:08:06.859
9.4% for Jeff Merkley to win his race against David Rock Smith.
406
00:08:07.170 --> 00:08:07.369
Uh,
407
00:08:07.459 --> 00:08:08.760
and then in New Mexico,
408
00:08:08.940 --> 00:08:10.000
another Democrat
409
00:08:10.269 --> 00:08:11.679
is Ben Ray
410
00:08:11.940 --> 00:08:12.839
Lujan.
411
00:08:13.260 --> 00:08:14.019
Ben Ray Lujan,
412
00:08:14.100 --> 00:08:14.420
it's just fun,
413
00:08:14.540 --> 00:08:15.459
it's a fun name to say.
414
00:08:15.700 --> 00:08:18.769
Ben Ray Lujan is a solid Democrat as well,
415
00:08:18.940 --> 00:08:21.239
99.3% chance.
416
00:08:21.660 --> 00:08:23.690
One more in the 99s for the Democrats,
417
00:08:23.760 --> 00:08:25.899
99.2% chance for Colorado.
418
00:08:26.220 --> 00:08:26.299
Uh,
419
00:08:26.380 --> 00:08:29.500
that's John Hickenlooper goes over to the solid Democrat,
420
00:08:29.739 --> 00:08:30.130
uh,
421
00:08:30.339 --> 00:08:31.600
category as well.
422
00:08:32.090 --> 00:08:32.530
Uh,
423
00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:36.729
Tennessee is a solid Republican with Bill Hagerty.
424
00:08:36.849 --> 00:08:37.250
He's well,
425
00:08:37.409 --> 00:08:39.130
he's over at 99% as well,
426
00:08:39.229 --> 00:08:41.169
99.1% to be exact,
427
00:08:41.289 --> 00:08:41.630
according
428
00:08:42.049 --> 00:08:45.539
to all the election market data and the predictable midterm consensus.
429
00:08:45.890 --> 00:08:46.390
Uh,
430
00:08:46.530 --> 00:08:47.690
Alabama is up next.
431
00:08:47.849 --> 00:08:48.450
Barry Moore,
432
00:08:48.530 --> 00:08:49.109
heavy favorite,
433
00:08:49.530 --> 00:08:49.799
uh,
434
00:08:49.809 --> 00:08:50.090
Republican,
435
00:08:50.250 --> 00:08:51.400
solid Republican seat,
436
00:08:51.640 --> 00:08:54.030
98.9%
437
00:08:54.239 --> 00:08:55.710
chance for Barry Moore.
438
00:08:56.109 --> 00:08:57.729
To win in Alabama,
439
00:08:58.200 --> 00:09:00.210
Mark Warner for Virginia
440
00:09:00.359 --> 00:09:01.400
is the next one up,
441
00:09:01.479 --> 00:09:02.270
uh,
442
00:09:02.320 --> 00:09:06.549
and he is at 98.9% to go to the solid Democratic side,
443
00:09:06.799 --> 00:09:09.000
so we'll give that one over to the Democrats.
444
00:09:09.650 --> 00:09:10.219
Um,
445
00:09:10.289 --> 00:09:10.539
let's see,
446
00:09:10.619 --> 00:09:11.380
where do we go next?
447
00:09:11.460 --> 00:09:12.510
Let's go to New Jersey,
448
00:09:12.580 --> 00:09:13.130
Cory Booker,
449
00:09:13.219 --> 00:09:14.599
no surprise he's gonna win that race.
450
00:09:14.900 --> 00:09:18.719
98.7% chance he's gonna go to the solid Democrat as well.
451
00:09:18.859 --> 00:09:21.599
You see how many of these are just solid and not really up for anything.
452
00:09:21.820 --> 00:09:23.650
What's great about a solid race if you happen to be,
453
00:09:23.700 --> 00:09:23.880
uh,
454
00:09:23.929 --> 00:09:26.020
in one of these parties is you don't have to spend any money on it,
455
00:09:26.260 --> 00:09:26.380
right?
456
00:09:26.419 --> 00:09:27.979
Like these guys are gonna basically win.
457
00:09:28.719 --> 00:09:28.830
Like,
458
00:09:28.880 --> 00:09:29.000
you know,
459
00:09:29.280 --> 00:09:29.400
does,
460
00:09:29.520 --> 00:09:31.039
does Cory Booker need to run an ad?
461
00:09:31.159 --> 00:09:31.820
Probably not.
462
00:09:32.239 --> 00:09:32.669
Um,
463
00:09:32.799 --> 00:09:33.460
Idaho,
464
00:09:33.679 --> 00:09:33.820
uh,
465
00:09:33.890 --> 00:09:34.799
this is an interesting 1.
466
00:09:34.909 --> 00:09:37.380
98.6% solid Republican
467
00:09:37.880 --> 00:09:39.440
in this race for Jim Risch.
468
00:09:39.599 --> 00:09:39.919
That's,
469
00:09:40.039 --> 00:09:40.159
uh,
470
00:09:40.280 --> 00:09:40.400
you know,
471
00:09:40.479 --> 00:09:42.359
some people are getting a little nervous about that race.
472
00:09:42.479 --> 00:09:43.039
I am not,
473
00:09:43.159 --> 00:09:43.320
uh,
474
00:09:43.479 --> 00:09:43.799
Jim Risch,
475
00:09:43.869 --> 00:09:44.789
I think will still win.
476
00:09:44.960 --> 00:09:46.799
He goes to the solid Republican side over an,
477
00:09:46.960 --> 00:09:47.080
uh,
478
00:09:47.159 --> 00:09:47.270
uh,
479
00:09:47.349 --> 00:09:48.200
an independent,
480
00:09:48.520 --> 00:09:48.679
uh,
481
00:09:48.760 --> 00:09:52.159
or a Democrat posing as an independent independent with Todd Achilles.
482
00:09:52.630 --> 00:09:53.510
In Illinois,
483
00:09:53.669 --> 00:09:53.750
again,
484
00:09:53.830 --> 00:09:54.809
not a competitive state,
485
00:09:55.080 --> 00:09:55.179
uh,
486
00:09:55.309 --> 00:09:56.030
Juliana Stratton,
487
00:09:56.070 --> 00:09:57.450
98.6%,
488
00:09:57.469 --> 00:09:59.150
goes to the Democratic side,
489
00:09:59.270 --> 00:10:01.330
another solid Democratic seat there.
490
00:10:01.669 --> 00:10:02.099
Um,
491
00:10:02.229 --> 00:10:02.750
Kentucky,
492
00:10:02.830 --> 00:10:03.849
a solid Republican,
493
00:10:03.950 --> 00:10:04.989
Andy Barr,
494
00:10:05.229 --> 00:10:08.929
98.6%. Kentucky drags over to that,
495
00:10:08.940 --> 00:10:11.849
and we're at 43-38 right now for Democrats
496
00:10:12.020 --> 00:10:13.549
in the lead for those keeping track,
497
00:10:14.219 --> 00:10:14.539
uh,
498
00:10:14.549 --> 00:10:14.929
at home.
499
00:10:15.270 --> 00:10:15.750
By the way,
500
00:10:15.950 --> 00:10:18.289
when you're on the Senate board doing your own Senate board.
501
00:10:18.570 --> 00:10:21.070
You don't have to keep track at home because it will calculate for you.
502
00:10:21.289 --> 00:10:22.280
And when you're done with your board,
503
00:10:22.330 --> 00:10:23.130
if you want to share it,
504
00:10:23.280 --> 00:10:23.580
uh,
505
00:10:23.770 --> 00:10:26.530
please do post it on the chat at predictableShow.com,
506
00:10:26.770 --> 00:10:27.669
post it on social media.
507
00:10:27.880 --> 00:10:29.330
There's a green share button there.
508
00:10:29.369 --> 00:10:29.919
You click that,
509
00:10:30.140 --> 00:10:30.789
send it to your friends.
510
00:10:31.090 --> 00:10:31.210
Hey,
511
00:10:31.289 --> 00:10:32.010
what would you do?
512
00:10:32.239 --> 00:10:32.590
Um,
513
00:10:32.869 --> 00:10:32.880
that,
514
00:10:32.929 --> 00:10:34.080
and you can do a kind of a,
515
00:10:34.289 --> 00:10:35.229
a very nerdy game.
516
00:10:35.989 --> 00:10:36.549
Your friends will,
517
00:10:36.590 --> 00:10:37.780
will really respect you afterwards.
518
00:10:37.830 --> 00:10:37.989
Don't,
519
00:10:38.059 --> 00:10:38.479
don't worry.
520
00:10:38.750 --> 00:10:38.869
Uh,
521
00:10:38.979 --> 00:10:39.830
so we would say Kentucky,
522
00:10:39.950 --> 00:10:40.109
Adam,
523
00:10:40.190 --> 00:10:40.380
I think,
524
00:10:40.440 --> 00:10:40.510
uh,
525
00:10:40.630 --> 00:10:41.590
Arkansas is next.
526
00:10:41.909 --> 00:10:42.510
Tom Cotton,
527
00:10:42.669 --> 00:10:44.489
97.9% chance.
528
00:10:44.700 --> 00:10:44.869
Again,
529
00:10:45.030 --> 00:10:45.450
another one where Democrats are like,
530
00:10:46.580 --> 00:10:46.750
oh,
531
00:10:46.830 --> 00:10:46.979
well,
532
00:10:47.059 --> 00:10:47.929
maybe we'll have a chance.
533
00:10:48.229 --> 00:10:50.119
Right now we're keeping that in the solid Democrat,
534
00:10:50.349 --> 00:10:50.500
uh,
535
00:10:50.630 --> 00:10:50.859
column,
536
00:10:50.869 --> 00:10:51.469
as it were at 9.
537
00:10:51.750 --> 00:10:52.409
97%.
538
00:10:52.630 --> 00:10:54.989
I've been doing it basically 95% or more,
539
00:10:55.109 --> 00:10:55.390
by the way,
540
00:10:55.500 --> 00:10:56.929
going into the solid categories.
541
00:10:57.190 --> 00:10:57.390
Uh,
542
00:10:57.469 --> 00:10:58.969
Mississippi is the last one
543
00:10:59.270 --> 00:11:00.429
out of the solid categories.
544
00:11:00.510 --> 00:11:01.090
We will go,
545
00:11:01.109 --> 00:11:01.340
uh,
546
00:11:01.520 --> 00:11:04.900
to the side of Cindy Hyde-Smith,
547
00:11:04.979 --> 00:11:06.309
95.1%
548
00:11:06.510 --> 00:11:07.150
over Scott.
549
00:11:07.590 --> 00:11:08.000
Uh,
550
00:11:08.229 --> 00:11:08.719
Colomb,
551
00:11:09.190 --> 00:11:10.580
the one interesting thing about this is,
552
00:11:10.630 --> 00:11:10.789
uh,
553
00:11:11.109 --> 00:11:14.030
Democrats again see a fringy blue tsunami type
554
00:11:14.030 --> 00:11:16.270
of thing putting Cindy Hydesmith in danger.
555
00:11:16.380 --> 00:11:18.950
There was a 4 point poll that came out relatively recently.
556
00:11:19.229 --> 00:11:21.989
Most of the polling has been mid to high single digits there,
557
00:11:22.109 --> 00:11:24.609
not the blowout you might expect in a place like Mississippi.
558
00:11:24.950 --> 00:11:27.489
And apparently Cindy Hyde-Smith said something bad about
559
00:11:27.750 --> 00:11:28.270
ground beef.
560
00:11:29.099 --> 00:11:29.500
Uh,
561
00:11:29.580 --> 00:11:31.049
she said you could have a different protein if,
562
00:11:31.099 --> 00:11:31.260
if,
563
00:11:31.340 --> 00:11:33.320
if you didn't have ground beef because the prices were up.
564
00:11:33.539 --> 00:11:35.400
So now every ad is about people
565
00:11:35.780 --> 00:11:36.880
barbecuing burgers.
566
00:11:39.000 --> 00:11:39.159
I,
567
00:11:39.280 --> 00:11:43.159
I will say we always make decisions based on the most notable and sensible things.
568
00:11:44.030 --> 00:11:44.070
It's that
569
00:11:44.320 --> 00:11:45.719
she had some off-handed comment.
570
00:11:45.789 --> 00:11:45.950
Let's,
571
00:11:46.000 --> 00:11:46.190
let's,
572
00:11:46.239 --> 00:11:49.559
let's elect a different senator because she made some dumb comment about burgers.
573
00:11:49.960 --> 00:11:50.320
Whatever.
574
00:11:50.440 --> 00:11:50.450
Uh,
575
00:11:50.799 --> 00:11:51.919
I remember John Kerry almost,
576
00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:52.159
I,
577
00:11:52.280 --> 00:11:53.299
I'm pretty sure at least he
578
00:11:53.679 --> 00:11:54.030
sort of,
579
00:11:54.039 --> 00:11:54.299
uh,
580
00:11:54.320 --> 00:11:57.820
was in danger after he wanted Swiss cheese on his cheesesteak in Philly.
581
00:11:58.280 --> 00:11:58.559
I mean,
582
00:11:58.630 --> 00:11:59.200
when he wanted that,
583
00:11:59.239 --> 00:11:59.489
I was like,
584
00:11:59.549 --> 00:11:59.919
oh gosh,
585
00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:00.190
I mean,
586
00:12:00.239 --> 00:12:01.359
no one could consider voting for him.
587
00:12:01.520 --> 00:12:01.789
OK,
588
00:12:02.039 --> 00:12:04.080
so now we're gonna go to the lean column.
589
00:12:04.109 --> 00:12:05.840
We're gonna go to lean Republican here next.
590
00:12:06.080 --> 00:12:06.400
Again,
591
00:12:06.559 --> 00:12:06.840
you know,
592
00:12:06.960 --> 00:12:07.890
is this a leaner state?
593
00:12:08.000 --> 00:12:09.159
I don't consider it a leaner state.
594
00:12:09.200 --> 00:12:10.820
This is just what we have for the setup
595
00:12:11.039 --> 00:12:12.119
for this particular,
596
00:12:12.229 --> 00:12:12.390
uh,
597
00:12:12.400 --> 00:12:12.630
race.
598
00:12:12.710 --> 00:12:12.929
But,
599
00:12:13.119 --> 00:12:13.280
uh,
600
00:12:13.359 --> 00:12:15.260
Mike Rounds in South Dakota,
601
00:12:15.479 --> 00:12:15.659
Adam,
602
00:12:15.729 --> 00:12:16.080
we'll bring that.
603
00:12:16.179 --> 00:12:16.919
Over to the
604
00:12:17.119 --> 00:12:20.239
uh likely Republican category
605
00:12:20.460 --> 00:12:24.570
uh over uh another fake Democrat slash independent
606
00:12:24.900 --> 00:12:28.719
who is at 94.6% rounds to win that race
607
00:12:28.929 --> 00:12:29.659
in Georgia,
608
00:12:29.739 --> 00:12:30.380
you might think Georgia,
609
00:12:30.500 --> 00:12:30.700
that's,
610
00:12:30.750 --> 00:12:31.830
that's not gonna be in,
611
00:12:32.059 --> 00:12:32.179
you know,
612
00:12:32.260 --> 00:12:32.979
94%.
613
00:12:33.059 --> 00:12:34.080
We're not gonna be anywhere near that.
614
00:12:35.460 --> 00:12:35.700
Yeah,
615
00:12:35.780 --> 00:12:36.099
it is.
616
00:12:36.179 --> 00:12:38.359
This is not seen as a competitive race by the data.
617
00:12:38.580 --> 00:12:40.090
And if you're in Georgia,
618
00:12:40.179 --> 00:12:40.299
you know,
619
00:12:40.340 --> 00:12:42.299
it's a lot of purple state,
620
00:12:42.419 --> 00:12:42.619
uh,
621
00:12:42.820 --> 00:12:43.739
really should have,
622
00:12:43.820 --> 00:12:44.059
I mean,
623
00:12:44.299 --> 00:12:46.539
Jon Ossoff should not even have been the senator in that state,
624
00:12:46.619 --> 00:12:47.020
frankly,
625
00:12:47.299 --> 00:12:49.299
considering all the craziness that was going on in that period,
626
00:12:49.409 --> 00:12:50.380
but he won and he's been,
627
00:12:50.419 --> 00:12:50.539
uh,
628
00:12:50.619 --> 00:12:52.900
running a good race and he's got a lot of money and he's
629
00:12:52.900 --> 00:12:55.690
got all the momentum and he's had a 94.2% chance to win.
630
00:12:55.739 --> 00:12:58.099
This will be a likely Democratic seat.
631
00:12:58.489 --> 00:12:58.950
Uh,
632
00:12:59.049 --> 00:12:59.609
Georgia,
633
00:12:59.690 --> 00:13:01.190
Ossoff over Collins.
634
00:13:01.570 --> 00:13:02.609
Louisiana,
635
00:13:02.890 --> 00:13:05.609
93.9%. Julia Letlow,
636
00:13:05.729 --> 00:13:06.090
a win.
637
00:13:06.169 --> 00:13:07.049
This will be a lean,
638
00:13:07.090 --> 00:13:07.570
or excuse me,
639
00:13:07.609 --> 00:13:08.909
a likely Republican
640
00:13:09.609 --> 00:13:10.109
seat.
641
00:13:10.619 --> 00:13:11.010
Just to,
642
00:13:11.130 --> 00:13:12.030
just to kind of
643
00:13:12.809 --> 00:13:13.770
restate what I just said.
644
00:13:14.750 --> 00:13:15.640
Georgia
645
00:13:15.940 --> 00:13:18.090
is more of a sure thing in this environment,
646
00:13:18.340 --> 00:13:19.609
according to experts,
647
00:13:20.299 --> 00:13:22.219
than Louisiana is for Republicans.
648
00:13:23.030 --> 00:13:24.549
That's the environment we're sitting in,
649
00:13:24.739 --> 00:13:25.299
boys and girls.
650
00:13:25.349 --> 00:13:26.950
It's not an easy one for Republicans,
651
00:13:27.030 --> 00:13:27.299
so,
652
00:13:27.590 --> 00:13:27.700
uh,
653
00:13:27.789 --> 00:13:29.229
something to keep in mind as we go forward and,
654
00:13:29.309 --> 00:13:29.400
and,
655
00:13:29.590 --> 00:13:32.270
and a way to kind of guard your prediction market positions as well.
656
00:13:32.390 --> 00:13:33.179
If you kind of like,
657
00:13:33.369 --> 00:13:34.590
I got a little bit of leeway.
658
00:13:35.039 --> 00:13:37.080
The leeway you want essentially is the blue
659
00:13:37.080 --> 00:13:39.020
leeway right now because if it gets worse,
660
00:13:39.479 --> 00:13:40.609
you want to be covered there.
661
00:13:40.840 --> 00:13:41.109
Um,
662
00:13:41.340 --> 00:13:41.580
it,
663
00:13:41.590 --> 00:13:42.159
it can be,
664
00:13:42.239 --> 00:13:42.359
uh,
665
00:13:42.450 --> 00:13:44.559
it can be risky to go the other direction at times.
666
00:13:44.840 --> 00:13:44.950
Uh,
667
00:13:45.000 --> 00:13:45.469
Montana,
668
00:13:45.640 --> 00:13:46.780
another fake Democrat,
669
00:13:46.789 --> 00:13:46.909
uh,
670
00:13:46.919 --> 00:13:47.270
going,
671
00:13:47.289 --> 00:13:47.710
uh,
672
00:13:47.719 --> 00:13:47.739
uh,
673
00:13:47.760 --> 00:13:48.419
up against,
674
00:13:48.429 --> 00:13:48.520
uh,
675
00:13:48.530 --> 00:13:49.200
Kurt Almay.
676
00:13:49.280 --> 00:13:49.390
Uh,
677
00:13:49.479 --> 00:13:52.200
Almay is at 92.7% for a Republican.
678
00:13:52.280 --> 00:13:54.190
That'll be a likely Republican seat,
679
00:13:54.510 --> 00:13:55.760
drag that over there.
680
00:13:56.140 --> 00:13:56.500
Uh,
681
00:13:56.549 --> 00:13:58.229
we are 44-43 right now.
682
00:13:58.309 --> 00:13:59.349
It's getting competitive,
683
00:13:59.429 --> 00:14:00.130
boys and girls.
684
00:14:00.390 --> 00:14:01.469
North Carolina is next.
685
00:14:01.549 --> 00:14:02.070
This is another one.
686
00:14:02.109 --> 00:14:03.489
I think people felt like Georgia,
687
00:14:03.900 --> 00:14:03.989
uh,
688
00:14:04.070 --> 00:14:05.309
where this is going to be a really competitive,
689
00:14:05.390 --> 00:14:06.020
big seat,
690
00:14:06.429 --> 00:14:08.150
really not turning out to be that way.
691
00:14:08.229 --> 00:14:08.330
Uh,
692
00:14:08.390 --> 00:14:09.250
Roy Cooper
693
00:14:09.390 --> 00:14:11.599
is going to win that race by many estimates.
694
00:14:11.669 --> 00:14:14.130
He's at 91.2% to win.
695
00:14:14.559 --> 00:14:18.669
Michael Watley only at 8.8%. This is going to be a likely Democratic seat.
696
00:14:19.159 --> 00:14:19.880
Uh,
697
00:14:20.039 --> 00:14:21.429
New Hampshire is up next.
698
00:14:21.559 --> 00:14:23.020
There was some real hope for New Hampshire because,
699
00:14:23.080 --> 00:14:23.190
uh,
700
00:14:23.320 --> 00:14:25.119
John Sununu is a very well-known name.
701
00:14:25.229 --> 00:14:26.330
We talked to Dan Edros yesterday.
702
00:14:26.419 --> 00:14:28.179
He has him on his fantasy league team
703
00:14:28.489 --> 00:14:29.859
as kind of a longshot candidate.
704
00:14:30.330 --> 00:14:33.510
But the polling has really moved against Sununu recently,
705
00:14:33.780 --> 00:14:35.419
and because of the Democratic climate
706
00:14:35.619 --> 00:14:38.479
and a slightly purplish to bluish state anyway,
707
00:14:39.059 --> 00:14:40.659
really uphill battle for Sununu.
708
00:14:40.739 --> 00:14:41.729
I think he'll be competitive there,
709
00:14:41.780 --> 00:14:43.130
but I don't think he's gonna win anyway.
710
00:14:43.380 --> 00:14:46.840
That has nothing to do with this because the data says 89.2% chance
711
00:14:47.179 --> 00:14:48.969
that Pappas will win Chris Pappas,
712
00:14:49.260 --> 00:14:49.369
uh,
713
00:14:49.450 --> 00:14:52.659
and that will go to a likely Democratic seat.
714
00:14:53.140 --> 00:14:53.780
Florida.
715
00:14:54.859 --> 00:14:55.510
Ashley Moody,
716
00:14:55.590 --> 00:14:56.549
one of my bigger positions,
717
00:14:56.669 --> 00:14:57.570
to be honest with you.
718
00:14:57.750 --> 00:14:58.020
Um,
719
00:14:58.190 --> 00:15:00.510
the data is less positive.
720
00:15:01.369 --> 00:15:02.070
Uh,
721
00:15:02.080 --> 00:15:03.979
than the prediction markets are on this one.
722
00:15:04.440 --> 00:15:07.750
Ashley Moody is at 85.7% chance to win,
723
00:15:08.010 --> 00:15:08.570
according to,
724
00:15:08.650 --> 00:15:08.770
uh,
725
00:15:08.809 --> 00:15:10.369
the predictable midterm consensus,
726
00:15:10.450 --> 00:15:11.390
the PMC.
727
00:15:11.890 --> 00:15:12.090
Uh,
728
00:15:12.250 --> 00:15:14.450
that is lower than her prediction market position,
729
00:15:14.489 --> 00:15:15.369
which I think is like 91,
730
00:15:15.429 --> 00:15:16.090
92.
731
00:15:16.479 --> 00:15:16.609
Uh,
732
00:15:16.729 --> 00:15:22.150
but Moody will be a likely Republican seat here for our exercise here as we go,
733
00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:22.320
uh,
734
00:15:22.450 --> 00:15:24.599
through the entire Senate race.
735
00:15:24.890 --> 00:15:25.729
Peggy Flanagan,
736
00:15:25.929 --> 00:15:26.729
another one that has been,
737
00:15:26.780 --> 00:15:27.020
uh,
738
00:15:27.320 --> 00:15:27.830
really
739
00:15:27.969 --> 00:15:29.650
for Democrats an odd one because.
740
00:15:30.330 --> 00:15:33.400
Races they thought would be close are turning out like Georgia and North Carolina,
741
00:15:33.619 --> 00:15:33.739
right?
742
00:15:33.859 --> 00:15:35.780
Where they are winning by a good amount.
743
00:15:36.419 --> 00:15:38.729
This one they didn't think was gonna be that close and is.
744
00:15:38.900 --> 00:15:40.570
Michelle Tafoy has performed very well.
745
00:15:40.739 --> 00:15:41.840
She's run a good campaign.
746
00:15:41.979 --> 00:15:45.010
She's hit Peggy Flanagan on a lot of important issues.
747
00:15:45.260 --> 00:15:45.900
Peggy Flanagan,
748
00:15:46.000 --> 00:15:46.210
I mean,
749
00:15:46.260 --> 00:15:49.169
this is a real negative for her in the state.
750
00:15:49.460 --> 00:15:51.719
She's tied pretty closely to Tim Walls.
751
00:15:52.020 --> 00:15:54.119
Anyone who's tied closely to Tim Walls
752
00:15:54.260 --> 00:15:55.599
is having a bad day.
753
00:15:55.809 --> 00:15:55.979
Uh,
754
00:15:56.099 --> 00:15:56.340
so,
755
00:15:56.450 --> 00:15:56.580
uh,
756
00:15:56.650 --> 00:15:57.010
right now,
757
00:15:57.099 --> 00:15:57.210
uh,
758
00:15:57.299 --> 00:15:58.130
she's still the favorite though,
759
00:15:58.179 --> 00:15:58.979
83%.
760
00:15:59.059 --> 00:16:00.960
This will be a likely Democratic,
761
00:16:01.340 --> 00:16:01.659
uh,
762
00:16:01.900 --> 00:16:02.369
seat,
763
00:16:02.820 --> 00:16:04.599
likely Democratic Peggy Flanagan.
764
00:16:05.109 --> 00:16:05.340
Uh,
765
00:16:05.390 --> 00:16:06.270
over Michelle Tafoya,
766
00:16:06.309 --> 00:16:06.390
though,
767
00:16:06.469 --> 00:16:07.909
I saw a lot of you on your prediction market,
768
00:16:07.989 --> 00:16:08.140
uh,
769
00:16:08.229 --> 00:16:10.049
fantasy teams at Senate Fantasy.com
770
00:16:10.349 --> 00:16:12.659
are looking for long shots and liking Tafoya there.
771
00:16:12.739 --> 00:16:13.299
And I can't,
772
00:16:13.390 --> 00:16:13.950
can't blame you.
773
00:16:14.070 --> 00:16:16.590
She's very competitive and 17 is not a bad price for her.
774
00:16:16.989 --> 00:16:17.109
Uh,
775
00:16:17.229 --> 00:16:17.750
Nebraska,
776
00:16:17.909 --> 00:16:18.510
Dan Osborne,
777
00:16:18.619 --> 00:16:19.450
fake independent,
778
00:16:19.630 --> 00:16:20.609
actual Democrat,
779
00:16:20.830 --> 00:16:20.940
uh,
780
00:16:20.989 --> 00:16:21.830
running up against Pete,
781
00:16:22.070 --> 00:16:23.460
Pete Ricketts in the state.
782
00:16:23.710 --> 00:16:26.929
Pete Ricketts is a 75.9% favorite,
783
00:16:27.150 --> 00:16:27.309
uh,
784
00:16:27.390 --> 00:16:29.969
to win that race that will go over to a likely,
785
00:16:30.229 --> 00:16:30.539
uh,
786
00:16:31.090 --> 00:16:31.229
Republican,
787
00:16:31.289 --> 00:16:33.030
and that is the end of our likely category.
788
00:16:33.380 --> 00:16:33.820
So right now,
789
00:16:33.859 --> 00:16:34.260
where are we?
790
00:16:34.429 --> 00:16:34.440
Uh,
791
00:16:34.539 --> 00:16:36.500
when we just do the solids and the likelies,
792
00:16:36.539 --> 00:16:36.690
if,
793
00:16:36.739 --> 00:16:37.619
if everyone wins that,
794
00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:38.940
it's 47 Democrats,
795
00:16:39.130 --> 00:16:43.900
45 Republicans is where we stand right now with 8 still remaining to be placed.
796
00:16:43.979 --> 00:16:44.179
Remember,
797
00:16:44.219 --> 00:16:45.380
we're gonna leave 0
798
00:16:45.539 --> 00:16:46.179
in the toss-ups.
799
00:16:46.219 --> 00:16:48.359
You're going to know who's controlling the Senate
800
00:16:49.140 --> 00:16:51.440
if the election were held today and the experts were exactly right.
801
00:16:51.739 --> 00:16:52.640
Neither of those are true.
802
00:16:53.219 --> 00:16:54.460
But you're gonna know something else.
803
00:16:54.500 --> 00:16:55.020
You're gonna know some,
804
00:16:55.099 --> 00:16:55.349
uh,
805
00:16:55.369 --> 00:16:55.619
details.
806
00:16:55.690 --> 00:16:56.640
Let's go to Michigan.
807
00:16:56.900 --> 00:16:57.799
Michigan is our next state.
808
00:16:58.530 --> 00:16:59.539
And you know what,
809
00:16:59.640 --> 00:16:59.820
uh,
810
00:16:59.940 --> 00:17:02.380
I look at this as a legit toss-up race.
811
00:17:02.419 --> 00:17:03.219
If I was building this,
812
00:17:03.260 --> 00:17:03.609
uh,
813
00:17:04.339 --> 00:17:04.500
myself,
814
00:17:04.560 --> 00:17:06.329
I would say that Michigan's a toss-up.
815
00:17:06.650 --> 00:17:07.089
However,
816
00:17:07.459 --> 00:17:08.699
the data does not agree with that,
817
00:17:08.739 --> 00:17:10.060
and they see it as a leaner,
818
00:17:10.250 --> 00:17:14.000
a leaner towards Democrats at 74.9%. Almost likely,
819
00:17:14.250 --> 00:17:14.500
uh,
820
00:17:14.670 --> 00:17:15.640
they see it as a,
821
00:17:15.689 --> 00:17:16.199
uh,
822
00:17:16.290 --> 00:17:16.319
uh,
823
00:17:16.439 --> 00:17:17.380
El Sayed over Rodgers.
824
00:17:17.449 --> 00:17:19.380
It's hard to believe that a guy like El Sayed could
825
00:17:19.380 --> 00:17:22.140
win in anything other than like California or New York,
826
00:17:22.260 --> 00:17:22.530
but
827
00:17:22.900 --> 00:17:23.380
Here he is,
828
00:17:23.459 --> 00:17:24.180
maybe winning
829
00:17:24.420 --> 00:17:24.848
in,
830
00:17:24.858 --> 00:17:25.260
uh,
831
00:17:25.380 --> 00:17:25.680
in,
832
00:17:25.819 --> 00:17:26.060
uh,
833
00:17:26.180 --> 00:17:26.699
Michigan.
834
00:17:26.930 --> 00:17:28.339
That seat goes to the Democrats.
835
00:17:28.540 --> 00:17:29.050
Next up,
836
00:17:29.300 --> 00:17:29.800
Maine,
837
00:17:30.300 --> 00:17:33.010
Troy Jackson versus Susan Collins,
838
00:17:33.500 --> 00:17:34.199
and
839
00:17:34.780 --> 00:17:35.619
Troy Jackson.
840
00:17:36.459 --> 00:17:38.410
Gets the win here according to the data,
841
00:17:38.650 --> 00:17:40.689
according to the predictable midterm consensus,
842
00:17:40.770 --> 00:17:41.439
the PMC,
843
00:17:41.609 --> 00:17:42.130
not me,
844
00:17:42.209 --> 00:17:43.109
don't blame me.
845
00:17:43.209 --> 00:17:44.239
When you get mad at these things,
846
00:17:44.329 --> 00:17:45.489
don't say Stu's a jerk.
847
00:17:45.530 --> 00:17:47.430
You put El Sayed in the Democratic column.
848
00:17:47.609 --> 00:17:48.989
That's not what I'm saying here.
849
00:17:49.239 --> 00:17:49.709
Um,
850
00:17:50.089 --> 00:17:51.630
I'm saying the data shows that.
851
00:17:51.880 --> 00:17:52.050
Uh,
852
00:17:52.170 --> 00:17:54.349
65.6% chance
853
00:17:54.729 --> 00:17:55.359
for,
854
00:17:55.390 --> 00:17:56.239
uh,
855
00:17:56.250 --> 00:17:58.150
Collins to lose that race
856
00:17:58.569 --> 00:18:00.150
to Troy Jackson.
857
00:18:00.609 --> 00:18:01.160
Next up,
858
00:18:01.489 --> 00:18:02.189
Sherrod Brown,
859
00:18:02.380 --> 00:18:03.209
John Husted.
860
00:18:04.910 --> 00:18:07.119
65.1% chance for the winner.
861
00:18:08.189 --> 00:18:09.810
In this particular exercise,
862
00:18:10.390 --> 00:18:11.229
Sherrod Brown,
863
00:18:11.349 --> 00:18:14.209
Brown at 65.1% goes to lean
864
00:18:14.989 --> 00:18:15.530
Democrat,
865
00:18:15.910 --> 00:18:17.729
and that puts the Democrats.
866
00:18:18.459 --> 00:18:19.750
At 50 seats.
867
00:18:20.739 --> 00:18:21.920
50 seats right now,
868
00:18:21.949 --> 00:18:22.670
according to this data.
869
00:18:23.640 --> 00:18:24.219
Next up,
870
00:18:25.439 --> 00:18:26.400
James Tallarico,
871
00:18:26.520 --> 00:18:27.160
Ken Paxton,
872
00:18:27.239 --> 00:18:28.280
the state of Texas,
873
00:18:28.359 --> 00:18:30.130
it's the one I'm sitting in right now,
874
00:18:30.400 --> 00:18:31.959
reading you this list.
875
00:18:32.869 --> 00:18:35.810
The data has it at 64.7%
876
00:18:36.030 --> 00:18:36.609
for the winner.
877
00:18:38.579 --> 00:18:39.599
James Tallarico
878
00:18:40.530 --> 00:18:41.109
Yes,
879
00:18:41.170 --> 00:18:41.369
uh,
880
00:18:41.459 --> 00:18:43.160
that's what the experts believe right now.
881
00:18:43.579 --> 00:18:45.349
James Tallarico to win.
882
00:18:45.489 --> 00:18:47.089
He has led in most of the polls.
883
00:18:47.189 --> 00:18:49.010
It's hard for me to imagine.
884
00:18:49.130 --> 00:18:50.369
I still feel like Ken,
885
00:18:50.479 --> 00:18:50.770
you know,
886
00:18:50.849 --> 00:18:50.969
uh,
887
00:18:51.130 --> 00:18:51.770
Ken Paxton,
888
00:18:52.089 --> 00:18:52.670
there's some
889
00:18:52.890 --> 00:18:53.689
potential value there.
890
00:18:53.719 --> 00:18:54.449
If you think he's gonna win,
891
00:18:54.530 --> 00:18:55.290
you can get 3,
892
00:18:55.410 --> 00:18:55.569
you know,
893
00:18:55.689 --> 00:18:56.569
3 times your money,
894
00:18:56.869 --> 00:18:57.130
um,
895
00:18:57.209 --> 00:18:57.920
or 2 times your money,
896
00:18:57.969 --> 00:18:58.290
I guess,
897
00:18:58.410 --> 00:18:58.609
uh,
898
00:18:58.729 --> 00:18:58.890
in,
899
00:18:59.010 --> 00:18:59.949
in just profits.
900
00:19:00.260 --> 00:19:00.410
Uh,
901
00:19:00.489 --> 00:19:00.760
but,
902
00:19:00.810 --> 00:19:01.640
uh,
903
00:19:01.729 --> 00:19:02.130
right now,
904
00:19:02.239 --> 00:19:02.839
the markets don't,
905
00:19:02.989 --> 00:19:03.079
uh,
906
00:19:03.130 --> 00:19:04.609
the data does not believe it.
907
00:19:05.420 --> 00:19:06.079
Um,
908
00:19:06.260 --> 00:19:06.640
all right,
909
00:19:06.939 --> 00:19:07.380
um,
910
00:19:07.500 --> 00:19:07.619
yeah,
911
00:19:07.780 --> 00:19:07.989
by the way,
912
00:19:08.060 --> 00:19:08.930
I wanted to show you this real quick.
913
00:19:08.939 --> 00:19:09.819
I thought this was interesting.
914
00:19:09.939 --> 00:19:10.010
Uh,
915
00:19:10.099 --> 00:19:11.160
Cal she tweeted this out.
916
00:19:11.780 --> 00:19:14.699
James Tallarico has a 63% chance to to beat Texas,
917
00:19:14.900 --> 00:19:15.020
uh,
918
00:19:15.089 --> 00:19:15.130
uh,
919
00:19:15.140 --> 00:19:16.500
Paxton in the Texas Senate race,
920
00:19:16.540 --> 00:19:17.560
according to Calci traders.
921
00:19:17.859 --> 00:19:21.380
But what percentage of Texas Senate traders are buying yes on Tallarico?
922
00:19:21.739 --> 00:19:23.439
So this is interesting because the money
923
00:19:23.739 --> 00:19:24.640
going a little heavier,
924
00:19:24.989 --> 00:19:25.380
um,
925
00:19:25.540 --> 00:19:26.089
into,
926
00:19:26.150 --> 00:19:26.250
uh,
927
00:19:26.380 --> 00:19:27.099
Tallarico,
928
00:19:27.500 --> 00:19:27.619
uh,
929
00:19:27.719 --> 00:19:28.739
but in the state.
930
00:19:29.280 --> 00:19:29.780
Texans,
931
00:19:29.869 --> 00:19:33.030
only 42% of Texans are saying Tallarico will win.
932
00:19:33.280 --> 00:19:35.660
48% of non-Texans
933
00:19:35.800 --> 00:19:37.550
are saying Tallarico will win.
934
00:19:38.119 --> 00:19:38.229
Now,
935
00:19:38.280 --> 00:19:40.739
maybe people in Texas know their state better.
936
00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:43.689
Maybe people in Texas are just more optimistic if they're,
937
00:19:43.839 --> 00:19:45.520
cause they're more conservative and they're saying they're gonna win.
938
00:19:45.579 --> 00:19:47.069
I don't know what's causing that.
939
00:19:47.400 --> 00:19:48.369
They did put a map out here,
940
00:19:48.400 --> 00:19:49.589
which I thought was interesting and,
941
00:19:49.640 --> 00:19:50.640
and an interesting lesson for,
942
00:19:50.680 --> 00:19:50.869
uh,
943
00:19:50.880 --> 00:19:51.119
our,
944
00:19:51.199 --> 00:19:51.319
uh,
945
00:19:51.359 --> 00:19:51.900
predictable,
946
00:19:52.359 --> 00:19:52.520
uh,
947
00:19:52.680 --> 00:19:53.300
constitution.
948
00:19:53.959 --> 00:19:54.130
Uh,
949
00:19:54.209 --> 00:19:54.729
which is,
950
00:19:54.890 --> 00:19:55.479
uh,
951
00:19:55.550 --> 00:19:55.680
uh,
952
00:19:55.689 --> 00:19:56.410
Amendment 12,
953
00:19:56.489 --> 00:19:56.969
I believe,
954
00:19:57.170 --> 00:19:58.810
which is don't invest with your heart.
955
00:19:58.890 --> 00:19:59.630
Look at this map.
956
00:20:00.290 --> 00:20:00.300
Uh,
957
00:20:00.900 --> 00:20:01.050
the,
958
00:20:01.130 --> 00:20:04.819
the most Talarico dollars are coming from all the blue states.
959
00:20:05.290 --> 00:20:06.489
And the,
960
00:20:06.530 --> 00:20:07.369
uh,
961
00:20:07.449 --> 00:20:09.329
Paxton dollars are all coming from the red states.
962
00:20:10.050 --> 00:20:10.689
And I,
963
00:20:10.770 --> 00:20:10.930
like,
964
00:20:11.050 --> 00:20:11.400
look,
965
00:20:11.650 --> 00:20:11.959
I'm not,
966
00:20:12.030 --> 00:20:12.390
uh,
967
00:20:12.449 --> 00:20:15.030
it's interesting that people are seeing what they want
968
00:20:15.030 --> 00:20:16.869
to happen as the thing that will happen.
969
00:20:17.130 --> 00:20:17.319
I,
970
00:20:17.410 --> 00:20:17.989
I gotta say,
971
00:20:18.130 --> 00:20:20.609
this is one of the things uh I've capitalized on over the years,
972
00:20:20.650 --> 00:20:21.709
you probably have as well,
973
00:20:22.010 --> 00:20:23.449
if you've done well in prediction markets.
974
00:20:25.040 --> 00:20:26.670
People's hopes and dreams,
975
00:20:26.839 --> 00:20:28.000
they want something to happen,
976
00:20:28.119 --> 00:20:29.380
so that's where they put their money.
977
00:20:29.760 --> 00:20:31.079
And a lot of times you can say,
978
00:20:31.160 --> 00:20:31.280
hey,
979
00:20:31.359 --> 00:20:31.680
wait a minute,
980
00:20:31.760 --> 00:20:32.880
that's not the correct knowledge.
981
00:20:32.989 --> 00:20:34.359
Our job here is to correct that knowledge.
982
00:20:34.520 --> 00:20:37.339
And if we can correct the knowledge and we can profit off of it,
983
00:20:37.589 --> 00:20:38.180
all the better.
984
00:20:38.560 --> 00:20:38.989
So,
985
00:20:39.000 --> 00:20:42.000
it's just an interesting thing here that this is happening all across the country.
986
00:20:42.040 --> 00:20:43.160
When people get on their own,
987
00:20:43.479 --> 00:20:44.479
they're riding their own train,
988
00:20:44.560 --> 00:20:45.189
they're thinking to themselves,
989
00:20:45.300 --> 00:20:46.400
I want this to happen so badly,
990
00:20:46.479 --> 00:20:46.920
it's gotta happen,
991
00:20:47.000 --> 00:20:47.680
it's gotta happen.
992
00:20:48.630 --> 00:20:52.099
That is potentially an opportunity for you to jump into the market and correct that.
993
00:20:52.630 --> 00:20:52.949
Uh,
994
00:20:53.189 --> 00:20:53.790
whether you're,
995
00:20:53.869 --> 00:20:54.030
you know,
996
00:20:54.109 --> 00:20:55.680
whether you agree with their opinion or,
997
00:20:55.709 --> 00:20:56.410
or not.
998
00:20:57.910 --> 00:20:57.920
Oh,
999
00:20:58.339 --> 00:20:59.170
we skipped South Carolina,
1000
00:20:59.219 --> 00:20:59.640
I am told.
1001
00:20:59.719 --> 00:21:01.060
Let's move South Carolina here.
1002
00:21:01.119 --> 00:21:03.459
This is actually gonna go to the Republican,
1003
00:21:03.540 --> 00:21:04.050
uh,
1004
00:21:04.219 --> 00:21:05.459
likely Republican,
1005
00:21:05.819 --> 00:21:06.260
um,
1006
00:21:06.540 --> 00:21:08.020
Darlene Graham Nordone.
1007
00:21:08.260 --> 00:21:08.739
Again,
1008
00:21:09.060 --> 00:21:12.699
this is one of the biggest disagreements between experts and prediction markets.
1009
00:21:12.810 --> 00:21:14.060
Prediction market is much more,
1010
00:21:14.260 --> 00:21:14.609
uh,
1011
00:21:14.689 --> 00:21:16.339
bullish on Graham Nordone.
1012
00:21:16.869 --> 00:21:18.630
Only 75.8%,
1013
00:21:18.699 --> 00:21:18.829
uh,
1014
00:21:18.949 --> 00:21:19.290
chance,
1015
00:21:19.390 --> 00:21:19.579
uh,
1016
00:21:19.670 --> 00:21:22.270
for Republicans to win in South Carolina.
1017
00:21:22.310 --> 00:21:23.099
It's unbelievable.
1018
00:21:23.310 --> 00:21:24.229
A few more races to go though.
1019
00:21:24.270 --> 00:21:24.979
I did Tallarico,
1020
00:21:25.030 --> 00:21:25.219
right?
1021
00:21:25.300 --> 00:21:25.390
Uh,
1022
00:21:25.459 --> 00:21:25.829
let's do,
1023
00:21:25.910 --> 00:21:26.459
we got Kansas,
1024
00:21:26.540 --> 00:21:26.869
Alaska,
1025
00:21:26.910 --> 00:21:27.250
and Iowa.
1026
00:21:27.319 --> 00:21:28.150
Let's do the last three.
1027
00:21:28.589 --> 00:21:29.329
Kansas,
1028
00:21:30.030 --> 00:21:31.369
60.9%
1029
00:21:31.949 --> 00:21:33.180
chance for the favorite to win.
1030
00:21:33.270 --> 00:21:34.250
Who's it going to be?
1031
00:21:34.790 --> 00:21:35.650
It's going to be
1032
00:21:36.109 --> 00:21:37.130
Roger Marshall.
1033
00:21:37.229 --> 00:21:39.189
According to the current data,
1034
00:21:39.229 --> 00:21:40.569
that will go to a lean,
1035
00:21:40.709 --> 00:21:41.489
lean,
1036
00:21:42.069 --> 00:21:42.699
uh,
1037
00:21:42.750 --> 00:21:42.869
yeah,
1038
00:21:42.949 --> 00:21:43.270
lean.
1039
00:21:43.339 --> 00:21:43.709
There you go.
1040
00:21:44.150 --> 00:21:44.569
Um,
1041
00:21:44.790 --> 00:21:44.949
I mean,
1042
00:21:45.000 --> 00:21:47.030
it doesn't really matter if we're putting them in lean or we're putting them in,
1043
00:21:47.089 --> 00:21:47.189
uh,
1044
00:21:47.290 --> 00:21:47.599
likelies,
1045
00:21:47.709 --> 00:21:50.189
but lean Republican for,
1046
00:21:50.310 --> 00:21:50.449
uh,
1047
00:21:50.550 --> 00:21:52.430
Kansas and Roger Marshall over Adam Hamilton.
1048
00:21:52.510 --> 00:21:53.780
I will say that some of the data,
1049
00:21:53.910 --> 00:21:55.849
some of the polling doesn't necessarily agree with that.
1050
00:21:56.140 --> 00:21:56.310
Uh,
1051
00:21:56.390 --> 00:21:56.739
but very,
1052
00:21:56.819 --> 00:21:57.630
very close race,
1053
00:21:57.790 --> 00:21:59.260
60.9%,
1054
00:21:59.270 --> 00:22:00.589
says the PMC,
1055
00:22:00.670 --> 00:22:01.849
the consensus data.
1056
00:22:02.109 --> 00:22:03.569
Next up is Alaska.
1057
00:22:03.910 --> 00:22:05.010
Two more to go.
1058
00:22:05.430 --> 00:22:06.290
Alaska,
1059
00:22:06.739 --> 00:22:07.369
the winner
1060
00:22:07.599 --> 00:22:08.229
right now,
1061
00:22:08.390 --> 00:22:11.959
if the election were held today and the experts were all perfectly correct.
1062
00:22:12.489 --> 00:22:15.469
59.5% chance we'll give the state to
1063
00:22:15.969 --> 00:22:17.000
the Democrats.
1064
00:22:17.449 --> 00:22:18.329
Mary Peltola,
1065
00:22:18.369 --> 00:22:20.189
59.5%
1066
00:22:20.530 --> 00:22:21.069
to win
1067
00:22:21.420 --> 00:22:22.349
Alaska.
1068
00:22:22.739 --> 00:22:23.530
And finally,
1069
00:22:23.569 --> 00:22:25.410
we have one more to go in Iowa,
1070
00:22:25.489 --> 00:22:26.530
the closest state.
1071
00:22:27.260 --> 00:22:29.079
This is the one that's on the razor's edge.
1072
00:22:30.020 --> 00:22:31.819
51.3%.
1073
00:22:32.180 --> 00:22:33.469
So just over 50%.
1074
00:22:33.540 --> 00:22:35.020
This is clearly a toss-up state.
1075
00:22:35.150 --> 00:22:35.619
However,
1076
00:22:36.510 --> 00:22:37.199
We have to move it.
1077
00:22:37.359 --> 00:22:39.270
We promised you we wouldn't chicken out.
1078
00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:40.280
We wouldn't wuss out.
1079
00:22:40.589 --> 00:22:40.829
And,
1080
00:22:40.920 --> 00:22:41.079
you know,
1081
00:22:41.280 --> 00:22:42.520
considering it's not really my opinion,
1082
00:22:42.560 --> 00:22:43.199
it's just the,
1083
00:22:43.260 --> 00:22:43.619
uh,
1084
00:22:43.800 --> 00:22:44.160
the data,
1085
00:22:44.219 --> 00:22:44.349
I,
1086
00:22:44.420 --> 00:22:44.500
I,
1087
00:22:45.260 --> 00:22:45.729
we're not really,
1088
00:22:45.900 --> 00:22:46.900
there would be no reason to wuss out,
1089
00:22:46.939 --> 00:22:47.520
but that's not totally,
1090
00:22:47.609 --> 00:22:47.790
um,
1091
00:22:48.000 --> 00:22:48.349
it,
1092
00:22:48.359 --> 00:22:50.699
it hurts me building the drama if I say it that way.
1093
00:22:51.040 --> 00:22:51.439
Iowa,
1094
00:22:51.510 --> 00:22:53.300
51.3% chance.
1095
00:22:53.520 --> 00:22:54.579
That one goes to
1096
00:22:55.239 --> 00:22:56.359
Ashley Hinson,
1097
00:22:56.439 --> 00:22:57.380
a Republican.
1098
00:22:58.089 --> 00:22:59.069
In Iowa,
1099
00:22:59.209 --> 00:23:00.910
so that's the final toll,
1100
00:23:01.290 --> 00:23:04.469
if you believe the data and the experts right now that they're perfect,
1101
00:23:04.729 --> 00:23:06.060
and of course the election were held today,
1102
00:23:06.130 --> 00:23:08.010
we've got a couple of weeks until that is going to happen.
1103
00:23:08.729 --> 00:23:09.640
But this
1104
00:23:09.780 --> 00:23:12.800
analysis brings it to 52% for Democrats,
1105
00:23:13.020 --> 00:23:14.479
48%
1106
00:23:14.739 --> 00:23:15.959
for Republicans.
1107
00:23:16.219 --> 00:23:16.369
All right,
1108
00:23:16.420 --> 00:23:17.280
we gotta take a break.
1109
00:23:17.459 --> 00:23:17.579
Uh,
1110
00:23:17.660 --> 00:23:18.140
that's the break,
1111
00:23:18.199 --> 00:23:19.170
we're gonna talk to PMT,
1112
00:23:19.339 --> 00:23:20.969
big time trader on the prediction markets,
1113
00:23:20.979 --> 00:23:22.579
made hundreds of thousands of dollars.
1114
00:23:22.900 --> 00:23:23.959
He's a big deal.
1115
00:23:24.020 --> 00:23:24.640
We'll talk to him
1116
00:23:25.020 --> 00:23:25.410
next.
1117
00:23:43.430 --> 00:23:46.150
Happy to welcome PMT back to the program.
1118
00:23:46.229 --> 00:23:47.469
He is a prediction market trader.
1119
00:23:47.510 --> 00:23:50.849
You can follow him on X under the handle Pred Mtrader.
1120
00:23:51.270 --> 00:23:51.630
Uh,
1121
00:23:51.790 --> 00:23:52.109
in fact,
1122
00:23:52.189 --> 00:23:52.829
I think PMT,
1123
00:23:52.910 --> 00:23:55.250
you were the very first guest we had on,
1124
00:23:55.310 --> 00:23:55.500
uh,
1125
00:23:55.510 --> 00:23:57.709
this predictable project we've launched here.
1126
00:23:57.819 --> 00:23:58.069
Uh,
1127
00:23:58.189 --> 00:23:59.109
so welcome back to the program,
1128
00:23:59.189 --> 00:23:59.550
PMT.
1129
00:24:00.609 --> 00:24:00.939
Thank you.
1130
00:24:01.050 --> 00:24:01.180
Yeah,
1131
00:24:01.300 --> 00:24:01.900
great to be back.
1132
00:24:01.989 --> 00:24:02.180
Um,
1133
00:24:02.219 --> 00:24:05.280
I think last time I was here it was going into the State of the Union,
1134
00:24:05.339 --> 00:24:06.290
if I remember correctly,
1135
00:24:06.300 --> 00:24:06.640
you're right.
1136
00:24:06.699 --> 00:24:06.880
Yeah,
1137
00:24:07.020 --> 00:24:07.579
I think you're right.
1138
00:24:07.699 --> 00:24:07.819
Yeah,
1139
00:24:07.930 --> 00:24:08.739
we rolled into that.
1140
00:24:08.810 --> 00:24:08.930
I,
1141
00:24:09.180 --> 00:24:10.260
we did OK on that.
1142
00:24:10.380 --> 00:24:10.459
I,
1143
00:24:10.540 --> 00:24:11.300
I at least I did OK.
1144
00:24:11.339 --> 00:24:13.319
I think you did better than I did honestly on that one.
1145
00:24:13.739 --> 00:24:14.140
but that's,
1146
00:24:14.250 --> 00:24:16.280
that's the story of my mention market life,
1147
00:24:16.329 --> 00:24:16.540
uh,
1148
00:24:16.609 --> 00:24:17.579
in comparison to you,
1149
00:24:17.699 --> 00:24:17.849
uh,
1150
00:24:17.979 --> 00:24:18.380
PMT.
1151
00:24:18.479 --> 00:24:18.689
So,
1152
00:24:18.939 --> 00:24:19.050
uh,
1153
00:24:19.130 --> 00:24:20.160
thanks so much for coming back on,
1154
00:24:20.300 --> 00:24:20.579
um.
1155
00:24:21.050 --> 00:24:21.530
Uh,
1156
00:24:21.569 --> 00:24:24.569
I have a million questions for you and probably not enough time for all of them,
1157
00:24:24.650 --> 00:24:26.170
but let me start with mention markets.
1158
00:24:26.250 --> 00:24:26.750
That's been,
1159
00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:26.969
you know,
1160
00:24:27.040 --> 00:24:28.250
at least kind of maybe what you're known for.
1161
00:24:28.290 --> 00:24:30.489
I know you trade on all sorts of different markets,
1162
00:24:30.800 --> 00:24:30.890
uh,
1163
00:24:30.959 --> 00:24:32.510
but that's been maybe your specialty.
1164
00:24:32.770 --> 00:24:33.030
Uh,
1165
00:24:33.369 --> 00:24:34.989
I wanna run by,
1166
00:24:35.380 --> 00:24:35.489
um,
1167
00:24:35.530 --> 00:24:37.410
this is just me looking for counseling.
1168
00:24:37.609 --> 00:24:38.550
I wanna run by,
1169
00:24:38.729 --> 00:24:39.000
uh,
1170
00:24:39.250 --> 00:24:40.290
one of my thesis,
1171
00:24:40.329 --> 00:24:40.560
uh,
1172
00:24:40.699 --> 00:24:42.550
statements here on this particular election,
1173
00:24:43.199 --> 00:24:43.439
which is,
1174
00:24:43.449 --> 00:24:44.369
I'm into the debates.
1175
00:24:44.469 --> 00:24:44.650
I've,
1176
00:24:44.760 --> 00:24:47.540
I've really liked jumping in the debate mention markets.
1177
00:24:48.010 --> 00:24:48.500
And my,
1178
00:24:48.599 --> 00:24:51.900
my kind of active thesis is in every single debate,
1179
00:24:52.020 --> 00:24:52.920
no matter what,
1180
00:24:53.579 --> 00:24:54.040
someone,
1181
00:24:54.420 --> 00:24:56.020
usually a local journalist,
1182
00:24:56.300 --> 00:24:58.170
will ask about data centers.
1183
00:24:58.339 --> 00:25:00.780
Like that is going to happen every single time.
1184
00:25:00.900 --> 00:25:01.400
Usually,
1185
00:25:01.810 --> 00:25:02.040
by the way,
1186
00:25:02.099 --> 00:25:03.300
in the second half of the debate,
1187
00:25:03.339 --> 00:25:04.609
it's not a lead question.
1188
00:25:05.020 --> 00:25:05.880
Second half of the debate,
1189
00:25:05.969 --> 00:25:07.300
have you found that one to be legitimate?
1190
00:25:07.339 --> 00:25:08.660
Am I thinking the right way on that?
1191
00:25:09.599 --> 00:25:10.640
I think you're thinking the right way,
1192
00:25:10.680 --> 00:25:11.199
honestly,
1193
00:25:11.260 --> 00:25:11.719
um,
1194
00:25:12.000 --> 00:25:12.310
and,
1195
00:25:12.319 --> 00:25:12.630
uh,
1196
00:25:12.719 --> 00:25:13.209
I mean,
1197
00:25:14.040 --> 00:25:14.969
interesting angles like that,
1198
00:25:15.030 --> 00:25:16.219
and you mentioned that
1199
00:25:16.479 --> 00:25:19.449
it will usually only come in maybe the second half of the debate,
1200
00:25:19.560 --> 00:25:20.939
so there's an angle there where,
1201
00:25:21.319 --> 00:25:21.560
um,
1202
00:25:21.640 --> 00:25:23.040
if in the 1st 20 minutes,
1203
00:25:23.160 --> 00:25:23.400
you know,
1204
00:25:23.479 --> 00:25:26.060
you see data center prices start to kind of
1205
00:25:26.280 --> 00:25:26.920
tumble down,
1206
00:25:27.000 --> 00:25:29.040
maybe you can pick up some yes shares for cheap,
1207
00:25:29.119 --> 00:25:29.449
but,
1208
00:25:29.680 --> 00:25:30.199
um,
1209
00:25:30.280 --> 00:25:30.439
I,
1210
00:25:30.520 --> 00:25:31.699
I think that's probably a,
1211
00:25:31.709 --> 00:25:32.079
a good angle.
1212
00:25:32.160 --> 00:25:33.000
I haven't played too many.
1213
00:25:33.145 --> 00:25:34.145
Any of the debates,
1214
00:25:34.385 --> 00:25:34.704
um,
1215
00:25:34.824 --> 00:25:35.385
but I would,
1216
00:25:35.505 --> 00:25:37.885
I would guess that some of the debate mentions,
1217
00:25:37.935 --> 00:25:38.415
uh,
1218
00:25:38.704 --> 00:25:39.285
probably
1219
00:25:40.025 --> 00:25:41.604
tend to have really good prices,
1220
00:25:41.614 --> 00:25:43.765
and you could probably take advantage of them because they're a little
1221
00:25:43.765 --> 00:25:47.064
bit lower volume than like your Trump rallies and things like that.
1222
00:25:47.295 --> 00:25:47.425
Yeah,
1223
00:25:47.545 --> 00:25:47.694
I,
1224
00:25:47.864 --> 00:25:49.425
you've hit the one weakness of the debates,
1225
00:25:49.464 --> 00:25:49.864
which is the,
1226
00:25:49.944 --> 00:25:51.145
the volume's really low on them,
1227
00:25:51.385 --> 00:25:51.824
a lot of them.
1228
00:25:51.905 --> 00:25:51.974
I,
1229
00:25:52.064 --> 00:25:52.334
I,
1230
00:25:52.625 --> 00:25:55.064
even the big races like Michigan in the Senate where you
1231
00:25:55.064 --> 00:25:56.785
kind of think people will be really talking about it.
1232
00:25:57.109 --> 00:25:57.790
It just,
1233
00:25:57.869 --> 00:25:57.949
the,
1234
00:25:58.030 --> 00:25:58.270
the,
1235
00:25:58.390 --> 00:25:58.550
it's,
1236
00:25:58.589 --> 00:25:59.969
it's too late to make
1237
00:26:00.260 --> 00:26:01.069
tons and tons of money.
1238
00:26:01.150 --> 00:26:01.550
I will say,
1239
00:26:01.619 --> 00:26:01.829
however,
1240
00:26:02.030 --> 00:26:02.579
the data,
1241
00:26:02.750 --> 00:26:04.290
data centers thing I've hit on like,
1242
00:26:04.709 --> 00:26:04.869
you know,
1243
00:26:05.069 --> 00:26:08.510
7 or 8 in a row on that one and usually the price isn't great,
1244
00:26:08.550 --> 00:26:09.369
but it's just fun.
1245
00:26:09.709 --> 00:26:09.910
Um,
1246
00:26:10.030 --> 00:26:12.969
the other one though is what's interesting about the debates is
1247
00:26:13.349 --> 00:26:14.890
these people are around talking
1248
00:26:15.020 --> 00:26:15.750
all the time
1249
00:26:15.989 --> 00:26:20.910
and their whole job is to maintain discipline to a particular message,
1250
00:26:21.020 --> 00:26:21.170
right?
1251
00:26:21.310 --> 00:26:21.670
Like they,
1252
00:26:21.750 --> 00:26:22.170
they,
1253
00:26:22.430 --> 00:26:23.030
when they're going around,
1254
00:26:23.109 --> 00:26:24.180
they're doing these speeches all the time,
1255
00:26:24.229 --> 00:26:26.209
they're repeating themselves constantly.
1256
00:26:26.599 --> 00:26:31.839
And if you kind of get a sense as to what is in a couple of those stump speeches,
1257
00:26:32.160 --> 00:26:34.280
they can't help but bring those points out
1258
00:26:34.280 --> 00:26:36.040
because it's just ingrained in their minds.
1259
00:26:36.439 --> 00:26:39.020
That's kind of like where I've looked for leads on those.
1260
00:26:39.270 --> 00:26:40.229
Is that the right way to look at it?
1261
00:26:40.280 --> 00:26:40.359
Well,
1262
00:26:40.479 --> 00:26:42.199
how do you research this and think to yourself,
1263
00:26:42.359 --> 00:26:42.430
uh,
1264
00:26:42.439 --> 00:26:45.060
I gotta find the right position for the next bencher market?
1265
00:26:46.219 --> 00:26:46.310
Yeah,
1266
00:26:46.390 --> 00:26:46.550
I mean,
1267
00:26:46.750 --> 00:26:46.829
I,
1268
00:26:46.930 --> 00:26:48.810
I think you're kind of spot on there and,
1269
00:26:48.829 --> 00:26:49.069
uh,
1270
00:26:49.109 --> 00:26:50.380
even outside of debates,
1271
00:26:50.469 --> 00:26:50.660
right?
1272
00:26:50.709 --> 00:26:50.890
I mean,
1273
00:26:50.910 --> 00:26:52.069
you think of someone like Trump,
1274
00:26:52.150 --> 00:26:52.310
right?
1275
00:26:52.349 --> 00:26:52.949
He has his,
1276
00:26:53.130 --> 00:26:54.770
his typical messaging that
1277
00:26:54.949 --> 00:26:56.540
he's almost always going to stick to,
1278
00:26:56.550 --> 00:26:56.739
and,
1279
00:26:56.750 --> 00:26:56.900
you know,
1280
00:26:56.949 --> 00:27:00.170
the funny thing with Trump in terms of finding edges sometimes is,
1281
00:27:00.349 --> 00:27:00.900
um,
1282
00:27:01.109 --> 00:27:01.349
you know,
1283
00:27:01.469 --> 00:27:02.489
oftentimes
1284
00:27:02.750 --> 00:27:06.869
Trump maybe would be scheduled to give a certain speech on a certain topic,
1285
00:27:06.949 --> 00:27:07.770
maybe on his,
1286
00:27:08.069 --> 00:27:08.229
you know,
1287
00:27:08.390 --> 00:27:10.050
new tax bill or on,
1288
00:27:10.390 --> 00:27:10.859
um,
1289
00:27:10.989 --> 00:27:11.369
you know,
1290
00:27:11.540 --> 00:27:11.739
uh,
1291
00:27:11.910 --> 00:27:13.630
pharmaceutical drug prices,
1292
00:27:13.709 --> 00:27:14.089
but
1293
00:27:14.349 --> 00:27:14.630
Um,
1294
00:27:14.719 --> 00:27:15.229
you can know,
1295
00:27:15.349 --> 00:27:16.229
just being Trump,
1296
00:27:16.349 --> 00:27:19.949
it's not hard for him to veer off into talking about Iran
1297
00:27:19.949 --> 00:27:22.839
or talking about the Save America Act or all these others.
1298
00:27:22.949 --> 00:27:23.329
So,
1299
00:27:23.630 --> 00:27:23.829
um,
1300
00:27:23.910 --> 00:27:23.959
I,
1301
00:27:24.069 --> 00:27:24.189
I,
1302
00:27:24.270 --> 00:27:25.010
I think you kind of
1303
00:27:25.569 --> 00:27:26.790
nailed the point there,
1304
00:27:26.829 --> 00:27:27.150
um,
1305
00:27:27.270 --> 00:27:30.040
and I think it especially applies to people like,
1306
00:27:30.390 --> 00:27:30.780
uh,
1307
00:27:30.790 --> 00:27:33.010
Trump who definitely has his specific talking points,
1308
00:27:33.020 --> 00:27:33.930
and I'm sure other,
1309
00:27:34.140 --> 00:27:34.270
you know,
1310
00:27:34.500 --> 00:27:35.500
political candidates.
1311
00:27:35.780 --> 00:27:35.989
Um,
1312
00:27:36.040 --> 00:27:36.180
I,
1313
00:27:36.239 --> 00:27:40.729
I think really finding an edge in mention markets is just getting that unique angle,
1314
00:27:41.150 --> 00:27:41.489
um,
1315
00:27:41.630 --> 00:27:42.290
to where
1316
00:27:42.619 --> 00:27:43.020
Uh,
1317
00:27:43.180 --> 00:27:43.459
you know,
1318
00:27:43.619 --> 00:27:45.930
finding something that other people kind of aren't considering,
1319
00:27:46.020 --> 00:27:48.420
and the benefit there as well with the mention market
1320
00:27:48.420 --> 00:27:50.729
is you only have to focus on one strike,
1321
00:27:50.819 --> 00:27:50.979
right?
1322
00:27:51.060 --> 00:27:51.260
There's,
1323
00:27:51.369 --> 00:27:52.619
there's 20 listed.
1324
00:27:52.859 --> 00:27:55.979
If you can find a unique edge on a specific one,
1325
00:27:56.069 --> 00:27:56.400
then
1326
00:27:56.689 --> 00:27:57.300
it's all you need.
1327
00:27:57.520 --> 00:27:57.660
Yeah,
1328
00:27:57.819 --> 00:27:57.939
the,
1329
00:27:58.060 --> 00:27:59.900
the Trump is really interesting because,
1330
00:28:00.010 --> 00:28:00.290
you know,
1331
00:28:00.699 --> 00:28:00.890
like,
1332
00:28:00.939 --> 00:28:03.530
obviously some of these candidates are super like on message,
1333
00:28:03.619 --> 00:28:03.770
right?
1334
00:28:03.849 --> 00:28:04.339
They're very,
1335
00:28:04.459 --> 00:28:04.859
they're very,
1336
00:28:04.939 --> 00:28:05.250
uh,
1337
00:28:05.380 --> 00:28:05.900
disciplined.
1338
00:28:06.089 --> 00:28:06.329
You know,
1339
00:28:06.880 --> 00:28:07.890
Trump has his talking points.
1340
00:28:07.930 --> 00:28:09.050
He says a lot of the same things,
1341
00:28:09.119 --> 00:28:11.449
but he's the exact opposite of disciplined,
1342
00:28:11.489 --> 00:28:11.630
right?
1343
00:28:11.680 --> 00:28:13.599
Like it's a pharmaceutical conference and they're like,
1344
00:28:13.650 --> 00:28:13.750
well,
1345
00:28:13.849 --> 00:28:14.560
why would he,
1346
00:28:14.849 --> 00:28:14.969
you know,
1347
00:28:15.040 --> 00:28:17.119
why would he say Democrats in the middle of this?
1348
00:28:17.290 --> 00:28:17.810
He will,
1349
00:28:17.849 --> 00:28:18.400
probably.
1350
00:28:18.670 --> 00:28:18.680
Yeah,
1351
00:28:18.810 --> 00:28:20.310
he'll just blurt it out at some point.
1352
00:28:20.689 --> 00:28:21.030
When
1353
00:28:21.640 --> 00:28:21.729
the,
1354
00:28:21.810 --> 00:28:23.770
the most exciting time I think in any mention
1355
00:28:23.770 --> 00:28:26.670
market is when you realize Trump has gone from
1356
00:28:27.020 --> 00:28:28.510
a guy who's really bored with a speech,
1357
00:28:28.569 --> 00:28:30.089
who's just reading it and wants to get out of the room,
1358
00:28:30.130 --> 00:28:31.449
which does happen occasionally.
1359
00:28:31.800 --> 00:28:32.290
2,
1360
00:28:32.420 --> 00:28:33.410
I'm ready to mix it up.
1361
00:28:33.469 --> 00:28:34.050
Let's go.
1362
00:28:34.260 --> 00:28:36.520
When you see that glint in his eyes,
1363
00:28:36.900 --> 00:28:37.060
I mean,
1364
00:28:37.300 --> 00:28:40.979
he's gonna say pretty much every single one of the options in a mention market.
1365
00:28:42.020 --> 00:28:42.310
Oh yeah,
1366
00:28:42.589 --> 00:28:44.099
as soon as he gets off of a,
1367
00:28:44.189 --> 00:28:44.510
uh,
1368
00:28:44.670 --> 00:28:44.829
you know,
1369
00:28:44.949 --> 00:28:47.150
reading a teleprompter prepared speech,
1370
00:28:47.229 --> 00:28:47.349
you,
1371
00:28:47.430 --> 00:28:48.819
you just know he's gonna weave.
1372
00:28:48.900 --> 00:28:49.410
I remember
1373
00:28:49.869 --> 00:28:53.050
when they announced the america.gov website,
1374
00:28:53.349 --> 00:28:54.589
I think this was 2 weeks ago,
1375
00:28:54.670 --> 00:28:57.530
he had made it through the whole speech without saying almost anything,
1376
00:28:57.989 --> 00:29:00.069
and then in the final like 30 seconds,
1377
00:29:00.160 --> 00:29:01.969
he somehow got onto Iran,
1378
00:29:02.430 --> 00:29:03.739
says they can't have a nuclear weapon,
1379
00:29:03.750 --> 00:29:05.550
and just started going off the whole,
1380
00:29:05.910 --> 00:29:06.060
you know,
1381
00:29:06.189 --> 00:29:06.680
talking point,
1382
00:29:06.790 --> 00:29:07.949
hitting almost every strike.
1383
00:29:08.550 --> 00:29:08.750
Yeah,
1384
00:29:08.829 --> 00:29:09.109
it is,
1385
00:29:09.270 --> 00:29:09.589
those are,
1386
00:29:09.670 --> 00:29:10.060
those are really,
1387
00:29:10.109 --> 00:29:10.510
really fun.
1388
00:29:10.630 --> 00:29:10.900
Um,
1389
00:29:11.079 --> 00:29:11.339
uh,
1390
00:29:11.430 --> 00:29:11.829
I want to,
1391
00:29:11.869 --> 00:29:12.050
uh,
1392
00:29:12.069 --> 00:29:13.390
go to another area of,
1393
00:29:13.510 --> 00:29:14.109
of prediction markets.
1394
00:29:14.150 --> 00:29:14.510
This is,
1395
00:29:14.630 --> 00:29:14.939
I,
1396
00:29:15.270 --> 00:29:15.989
to my understanding,
1397
00:29:16.150 --> 00:29:17.069
pretty much new,
1398
00:29:17.410 --> 00:29:17.630
um,
1399
00:29:17.750 --> 00:29:19.430
which are these combos play plays.
1400
00:29:19.510 --> 00:29:19.589
Now,
1401
00:29:19.750 --> 00:29:19.989
of course,
1402
00:29:20.030 --> 00:29:21.260
they're very familiar in sports,
1403
00:29:22.069 --> 00:29:22.079
right?
1404
00:29:22.089 --> 00:29:24.189
Like some people call them parlays if you want to get into that,
1405
00:29:24.270 --> 00:29:24.510
of course,
1406
00:29:24.630 --> 00:29:24.910
we don't,
1407
00:29:25.050 --> 00:29:25.989
we don't look at it as gambling,
1408
00:29:26.030 --> 00:29:27.250
we look at it as investing here,
1409
00:29:27.430 --> 00:29:27.589
um,
1410
00:29:27.670 --> 00:29:27.930
but
1411
00:29:28.069 --> 00:29:31.250
when you look just for people who are familiar with what we're talking about,
1412
00:29:31.829 --> 00:29:36.189
I really like the idea of combos in election markets.
1413
00:29:36.630 --> 00:29:37.089
And,
1414
00:29:37.180 --> 00:29:37.530
uh,
1415
00:29:37.619 --> 00:29:37.819
you know,
1416
00:29:37.979 --> 00:29:39.459
I have clicked around.
1417
00:29:39.619 --> 00:29:41.459
Calci has just started to offer these,
1418
00:29:41.540 --> 00:29:41.859
um,
1419
00:29:41.939 --> 00:29:42.650
at least I had,
1420
00:29:42.770 --> 00:29:43.819
the first time I had seen them,
1421
00:29:44.099 --> 00:29:45.619
and you can kind of just design your own,
1422
00:29:45.699 --> 00:29:45.819
right?
1423
00:29:45.859 --> 00:29:46.219
It's,
1424
00:29:46.280 --> 00:29:49.339
you can click around and add different contracts and make them really,
1425
00:29:49.420 --> 00:29:50.180
really long and,
1426
00:29:50.260 --> 00:29:50.380
and,
1427
00:29:50.459 --> 00:29:51.140
and everything else.
1428
00:29:51.380 --> 00:29:52.239
When I've done it,
1429
00:29:52.900 --> 00:29:53.530
I haven't seen a,
1430
00:29:53.729 --> 00:29:54.060
a,
1431
00:29:54.130 --> 00:29:55.859
a huge explosion of value yet.
1432
00:29:56.270 --> 00:29:57.390
I did see a tweet from you,
1433
00:29:57.500 --> 00:29:57.750
however,
1434
00:29:57.829 --> 00:29:58.989
which I think this is fascinating,
1435
00:29:59.030 --> 00:29:59.270
and I,
1436
00:29:59.290 --> 00:29:59.300
I,
1437
00:29:59.349 --> 00:30:00.150
I wanna talk this through.
1438
00:30:00.229 --> 00:30:00.520
This is,
1439
00:30:00.550 --> 00:30:00.739
uh,
1440
00:30:01.229 --> 00:30:02.739
this is what a tweet from you says,
1441
00:30:02.869 --> 00:30:03.609
is this hidden?
1442
00:30:03.949 --> 00:30:04.189
Um,
1443
00:30:04.349 --> 00:30:04.469
uh,
1444
00:30:04.579 --> 00:30:07.750
you have $5000 on a combo,
1445
00:30:08.069 --> 00:30:08.280
uh,
1446
00:30:08.430 --> 00:30:10.849
that would pay $48,000.
1447
00:30:10.949 --> 00:30:11.130
These are,
1448
00:30:11.349 --> 00:30:11.709
this is,
1449
00:30:11.750 --> 00:30:12.099
uh,
1450
00:30:12.270 --> 00:30:13.140
see if I can read all of them.
1451
00:30:13.589 --> 00:30:14.119
Democratic Party,
1452
00:30:14.150 --> 00:30:14.589
who will win,
1453
00:30:14.750 --> 00:30:14.910
uh,
1454
00:30:15.010 --> 00:30:15.670
who will win the Senate.
1455
00:30:15.910 --> 00:30:17.780
So there's some risk to that one for sure.
1456
00:30:18.310 --> 00:30:18.800
Democratic Party,
1457
00:30:18.910 --> 00:30:19.020
uh,
1458
00:30:19.069 --> 00:30:20.180
Alaska Senate winner,
1459
00:30:20.430 --> 00:30:21.589
Troy Jackson winning in,
1460
00:30:21.670 --> 00:30:21.869
in,
1461
00:30:21.969 --> 00:30:22.189
uh,
1462
00:30:22.270 --> 00:30:22.949
in Maine,
1463
00:30:23.189 --> 00:30:24.540
Abdul El Sayed in Michigan,
1464
00:30:24.819 --> 00:30:25.969
Sherrod Brown in Ohio,
1465
00:30:26.150 --> 00:30:27.390
and James Tallarico
1466
00:30:27.699 --> 00:30:28.229
in Texas.
1467
00:30:28.349 --> 00:30:28.550
Now,
1468
00:30:28.750 --> 00:30:29.569
all of those
1469
00:30:30.150 --> 00:30:30.810
are,
1470
00:30:30.829 --> 00:30:31.130
uh,
1471
00:30:31.349 --> 00:30:32.569
none of those are sure things,
1472
00:30:32.660 --> 00:30:32.790
you know,
1473
00:30:32.989 --> 00:30:34.349
some of those are kind of real toss-ups,
1474
00:30:34.420 --> 00:30:35.430
some of those are leaners.
1475
00:30:36.030 --> 00:30:38.349
But what's fascinating about that and how,
1476
00:30:38.479 --> 00:30:39.660
what the price you got on it,
1477
00:30:39.709 --> 00:30:40.150
which was,
1478
00:30:40.300 --> 00:30:40.650
you know,
1479
00:30:40.819 --> 00:30:42.349
11 or 12X.
1480
00:30:42.979 --> 00:30:45.089
Is that they're all heavily correlated,
1481
00:30:45.140 --> 00:30:45.270
right?
1482
00:30:45.329 --> 00:30:46.099
Like that shouldn't be,
1483
00:30:46.140 --> 00:30:47.339
it's unlike sports where,
1484
00:30:47.390 --> 00:30:47.400
uh,
1485
00:30:47.500 --> 00:30:47.619
you know,
1486
00:30:47.729 --> 00:30:50.599
the Jets win and the Eagles win are totally different outcomes.
1487
00:30:51.099 --> 00:30:52.579
These are all correlated outcomes.
1488
00:30:52.689 --> 00:30:53.410
How is it,
1489
00:30:53.500 --> 00:30:54.640
how did you get this price?
1490
00:30:55.489 --> 00:30:55.650
Yeah,
1491
00:30:55.810 --> 00:30:58.119
so it it it's a really funny story and,
1492
00:30:58.130 --> 00:30:58.619
um,
1493
00:30:58.890 --> 00:30:59.750
so I would say,
1494
00:30:59.770 --> 00:31:00.189
uh,
1495
00:31:00.219 --> 00:31:00.400
for,
1496
00:31:00.459 --> 00:31:01.849
for combos in general,
1497
00:31:01.930 --> 00:31:02.170
right,
1498
00:31:02.290 --> 00:31:02.420
uh,
1499
00:31:02.530 --> 00:31:03.750
they've long existed on,
1500
00:31:03.760 --> 00:31:04.630
on sports,
1501
00:31:04.689 --> 00:31:05.089
um.
1502
00:31:05.439 --> 00:31:05.910
And,
1503
00:31:05.920 --> 00:31:06.349
uh,
1504
00:31:06.359 --> 00:31:07.520
have slowly been expanding.
1505
00:31:07.560 --> 00:31:08.569
They even have crypto,
1506
00:31:08.599 --> 00:31:10.290
and now we're just seeing politics.
1507
00:31:10.400 --> 00:31:10.699
So,
1508
00:31:10.839 --> 00:31:11.069
as,
1509
00:31:11.160 --> 00:31:13.339
as a market maker for combos,
1510
00:31:13.599 --> 00:31:14.180
um,
1511
00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:15.319
to your point,
1512
00:31:15.439 --> 00:31:16.069
if you're,
1513
00:31:16.319 --> 00:31:19.719
if you're quoting multiple legs that are independent of each other,
1514
00:31:19.839 --> 00:31:20.680
it's really easy,
1515
00:31:20.760 --> 00:31:20.939
right?
1516
00:31:21.000 --> 00:31:22.339
You just multiply
1517
00:31:22.520 --> 00:31:25.020
the probability of each underlying leg,
1518
00:31:25.199 --> 00:31:25.670
um,
1519
00:31:25.910 --> 00:31:26.459
but
1520
00:31:26.880 --> 00:31:27.949
even in sports,
1521
00:31:28.119 --> 00:31:29.300
there can be times where,
1522
00:31:29.520 --> 00:31:29.949
um,
1523
00:31:30.300 --> 00:31:30.609
You know,
1524
00:31:30.859 --> 00:31:32.609
two legs are correlated with one another,
1525
00:31:32.689 --> 00:31:34.650
and that's where as a market maker,
1526
00:31:34.660 --> 00:31:36.579
it becomes very difficult to price.
1527
00:31:36.939 --> 00:31:37.099
Um,
1528
00:31:37.619 --> 00:31:40.219
and now when you bring politics into the mix,
1529
00:31:40.300 --> 00:31:40.719
which,
1530
00:31:40.770 --> 00:31:40.939
you know,
1531
00:31:41.060 --> 00:31:43.479
obviously is extremely correlated,
1532
00:31:43.739 --> 00:31:43.930
um,
1533
00:31:44.060 --> 00:31:45.000
that's where
1534
00:31:45.140 --> 00:31:48.400
it becomes very difficult for market makers to kind of
1535
00:31:48.699 --> 00:31:49.020
price,
1536
00:31:49.130 --> 00:31:49.329
you know,
1537
00:31:49.459 --> 00:31:51.270
what is the correlation between,
1538
00:31:51.459 --> 00:31:51.619
you know,
1539
00:31:51.715 --> 00:31:51.875
You know,
1540
00:31:51.985 --> 00:31:52.135
uh,
1541
00:31:52.235 --> 00:31:54.426
a Democratic sweep or a Republican sweep.
1542
00:31:54.465 --> 00:31:54.605
I mean,
1543
00:31:54.635 --> 00:31:56.235
you can look at like 2024,
1544
00:31:56.345 --> 00:31:56.475
right?
1545
00:31:56.556 --> 00:31:57.416
That was a race
1546
00:31:57.755 --> 00:31:59.436
for the presidency that was neck and neck,
1547
00:31:59.505 --> 00:32:01.316
but I think a lot of people kind of knew it was going
1548
00:32:01.316 --> 00:32:04.015
to break one way and you saw Trump won all the swing states,
1549
00:32:04.036 --> 00:32:05.536
and it easily could have gone the other way.
1550
00:32:05.745 --> 00:32:05.916
Um,
1551
00:32:05.995 --> 00:32:06.696
but anyways,
1552
00:32:06.956 --> 00:32:08.076
on this specifically,
1553
00:32:08.196 --> 00:32:08.355
you know,
1554
00:32:08.436 --> 00:32:08.956
this was,
1555
00:32:09.066 --> 00:32:09.276
uh,
1556
00:32:09.436 --> 00:32:10.495
right around when,
1557
00:32:10.836 --> 00:32:11.306
um,
1558
00:32:11.635 --> 00:32:13.076
it was actually minutes after.
1559
00:32:13.251 --> 00:32:15.991
The election combos had dropped
1560
00:32:16.251 --> 00:32:19.291
and immediately my first thought was,
1561
00:32:19.371 --> 00:32:19.802
uh,
1562
00:32:20.131 --> 00:32:23.452
is there a market maker that is not pricing correlation correctly?
1563
00:32:23.722 --> 00:32:24.112
And,
1564
00:32:24.131 --> 00:32:24.452
uh,
1565
00:32:24.552 --> 00:32:25.052
I got,
1566
00:32:25.131 --> 00:32:25.332
uh,
1567
00:32:25.452 --> 00:32:25.702
you know,
1568
00:32:25.932 --> 00:32:27.041
lucky that there was,
1569
00:32:27.052 --> 00:32:30.052
and there was a market maker also with very big limits.
1570
00:32:30.202 --> 00:32:30.651
Um,
1571
00:32:30.891 --> 00:32:31.092
I,
1572
00:32:31.171 --> 00:32:32.472
I was not expecting
1573
00:32:32.612 --> 00:32:34.572
to be able to get down as much money as I could.
1574
00:32:34.972 --> 00:32:35.682
Um,
1575
00:32:36.131 --> 00:32:36.432
and,
1576
00:32:36.452 --> 00:32:36.702
uh,
1577
00:32:36.712 --> 00:32:38.572
that was kind of where those combos originated.
1578
00:32:38.612 --> 00:32:39.031
So obviously,
1579
00:32:39.171 --> 00:32:39.891
to your point as well,
1580
00:32:39.972 --> 00:32:40.251
like,
1581
00:32:41.189 --> 00:32:42.869
That could easily lose,
1582
00:32:43.069 --> 00:32:43.410
but,
1583
00:32:43.469 --> 00:32:43.780
um,
1584
00:32:43.790 --> 00:32:45.530
it's a very plus EV,
1585
00:32:45.750 --> 00:32:46.030
you know,
1586
00:32:46.170 --> 00:32:47.140
position to have,
1587
00:32:47.150 --> 00:32:47.630
obviously.
1588
00:32:47.670 --> 00:32:48.949
I think fair value of it is,
1589
00:32:49.030 --> 00:32:49.150
you know,
1590
00:32:49.229 --> 00:32:53.209
arguably above kind of 30 cents versus the 10 cents we got it at.
1591
00:32:53.500 --> 00:32:53.869
Um,
1592
00:32:53.949 --> 00:32:53.959
and,
1593
00:32:54.109 --> 00:32:54.709
and that's,
1594
00:32:54.829 --> 00:32:56.709
that's really when you're thinking about these combos,
1595
00:32:56.750 --> 00:32:57.849
it's a new area,
1596
00:32:58.109 --> 00:32:58.829
um,
1597
00:32:59.430 --> 00:32:59.819
and,
1598
00:32:59.829 --> 00:33:00.349
uh,
1599
00:33:00.640 --> 00:33:00.839
You know,
1600
00:33:00.920 --> 00:33:01.800
if you're creative,
1601
00:33:01.880 --> 00:33:06.260
maybe you can find certain races that are correlated that a market maker isn't
1602
00:33:06.439 --> 00:33:07.400
pricing correctly.
1603
00:33:07.760 --> 00:33:07.880
Yeah,
1604
00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:08.189
and,
1605
00:33:08.199 --> 00:33:08.449
uh,
1606
00:33:08.479 --> 00:33:08.680
just,
1607
00:33:08.760 --> 00:33:09.239
and to,
1608
00:33:09.329 --> 00:33:09.670
to be clear,
1609
00:33:09.719 --> 00:33:11.239
like I can't click on those states.
1610
00:33:11.319 --> 00:33:14.589
I can't click on those uh combinations right now and get the same price you got,
1611
00:33:14.680 --> 00:33:14.829
right?
1612
00:33:14.920 --> 00:33:15.270
Like that's,
1613
00:33:15.319 --> 00:33:16.119
that's not happening.
1614
00:33:16.239 --> 00:33:16.349
Yeah,
1615
00:33:16.439 --> 00:33:16.609
yeah,
1616
00:33:16.920 --> 00:33:17.119
yeah,
1617
00:33:17.199 --> 00:33:17.319
I,
1618
00:33:17.400 --> 00:33:21.670
I think after he got hit for a lot of those because that's not the only,
1619
00:33:21.880 --> 00:33:22.040
you know,
1620
00:33:22.199 --> 00:33:22.560
one,
1621
00:33:23.239 --> 00:33:24.880
they probably stopped quoting them as.
1622
00:33:24.959 --> 00:33:25.459
Uh,
1623
00:33:26.260 --> 00:33:26.280
large,
1624
00:33:26.839 --> 00:33:26.880
yeah,
1625
00:33:27.000 --> 00:33:27.140
and we,
1626
00:33:27.199 --> 00:33:28.209
we talked about just in case,
1627
00:33:28.270 --> 00:33:28.430
you know,
1628
00:33:28.479 --> 00:33:28.630
you're,
1629
00:33:28.920 --> 00:33:29.709
you're maybe
1630
00:33:30.510 --> 00:33:31.040
understandably some of this,
1631
00:33:31.079 --> 00:33:32.390
if you're not a traitor goes a little bit
1632
00:33:32.390 --> 00:33:34.349
over your head when you have a situation where,
1633
00:33:34.520 --> 00:33:34.650
like,
1634
00:33:34.660 --> 00:33:34.949
for example,
1635
00:33:35.040 --> 00:33:36.859
one of the options is the Democrats winning the Senate.
1636
00:33:37.109 --> 00:33:38.869
If they win all those other races,
1637
00:33:39.160 --> 00:33:40.829
quite obviously they're winning the Senate.
1638
00:33:40.880 --> 00:33:43.239
There's no way they would lose the Senate in that circumstance.
1639
00:33:43.280 --> 00:33:43.560
And
1640
00:33:43.719 --> 00:33:45.920
if it's a good enough Democratic year for,
1641
00:33:46.030 --> 00:33:46.199
you know,
1642
00:33:46.359 --> 00:33:48.739
let's say Democrats to win in Texas and,
1643
00:33:48.880 --> 00:33:49.199
uh,
1644
00:33:49.500 --> 00:33:49.780
Uh,
1645
00:33:49.859 --> 00:33:50.130
you know,
1646
00:33:50.329 --> 00:33:51.729
Michigan and all these other states,
1647
00:33:52.140 --> 00:33:54.060
probably the other states are gonna go that way as well.
1648
00:33:54.219 --> 00:33:54.560
So
1649
00:33:54.739 --> 00:33:57.400
that's what we're talking about when you're talking about real value there.
1650
00:33:57.619 --> 00:33:58.000
Um,
1651
00:33:59.109 --> 00:33:59.119
well,
1652
00:33:59.180 --> 00:33:59.819
let's talk about the,
1653
00:33:59.900 --> 00:34:02.959
the Senate a little bit as far as just regular wins and losses here.
1654
00:34:03.369 --> 00:34:03.569
Um,
1655
00:34:03.660 --> 00:34:04.329
you actually have a,
1656
00:34:04.380 --> 00:34:04.500
uh,
1657
00:34:04.579 --> 00:34:05.329
I was told you have a,
1658
00:34:05.380 --> 00:34:05.579
uh,
1659
00:34:05.660 --> 00:34:06.000
uh,
1660
00:34:06.020 --> 00:34:07.170
Senate fantasy league team.
1661
00:34:07.219 --> 00:34:07.420
Is that,
1662
00:34:07.489 --> 00:34:07.900
is this right,
1663
00:34:08.060 --> 00:34:08.379
PMT?
1664
00:34:08.418 --> 00:34:08.879
Are you in?
1665
00:34:09.175 --> 00:34:09.574
That is,
1666
00:34:09.695 --> 00:34:10.205
that is correct.
1667
00:34:10.293 --> 00:34:10.395
I,
1668
00:34:10.455 --> 00:34:11.135
I filled one out,
1669
00:34:11.215 --> 00:34:11.333
uh,
1670
00:34:11.415 --> 00:34:11.853
this morning.
1671
00:34:11.935 --> 00:34:12.333
I was,
1672
00:34:12.614 --> 00:34:12.695
I,
1673
00:34:12.813 --> 00:34:14.254
I love like contests,
1674
00:34:14.333 --> 00:34:14.614
um,
1675
00:34:14.735 --> 00:34:15.245
even in,
1676
00:34:15.254 --> 00:34:15.465
uh,
1677
00:34:15.574 --> 00:34:15.935
on the,
1678
00:34:16.125 --> 00:34:16.245
I,
1679
00:34:16.293 --> 00:34:17.655
I do trade a lot of sports.
1680
00:34:17.745 --> 00:34:20.415
So I do survivor contests sometimes I'll enter into,
1681
00:34:20.614 --> 00:34:21.554
and I kind of liked
1682
00:34:21.813 --> 00:34:23.014
this idea of the contest.
1683
00:34:23.083 --> 00:34:24.235
I did build out
1684
00:34:24.574 --> 00:34:24.965
a,
1685
00:34:24.985 --> 00:34:25.324
uh,
1686
00:34:25.353 --> 00:34:25.965
uh,
1687
00:34:26.175 --> 00:34:26.554
you know,
1688
00:34:26.735 --> 00:34:28.135
a fantasy roster for the,
1689
00:34:28.215 --> 00:34:28.925
for the Senate.
1690
00:34:29.375 --> 00:34:29.534
Yeah,
1691
00:34:29.645 --> 00:34:29.793
it's,
1692
00:34:29.804 --> 00:34:29.885
uh,
1693
00:34:29.965 --> 00:34:30.254
it's out,
1694
00:34:30.333 --> 00:34:32.004
the team is called Jeb is a mess.
1695
00:34:32.205 --> 00:34:32.813
It is up there.
1696
00:34:32.975 --> 00:34:33.495
You can see it.
1697
00:34:33.574 --> 00:34:33.735
Uh,
1698
00:34:33.895 --> 00:34:35.043
PFT is on the board.
1699
00:34:35.094 --> 00:34:35.175
Uh,
1700
00:34:35.254 --> 00:34:36.195
so you're gonna be going against some,
1701
00:34:36.455 --> 00:34:36.563
uh,
1702
00:34:36.645 --> 00:34:37.754
some real experts here.
1703
00:34:38.110 --> 00:34:38.540
Um,
1704
00:34:38.870 --> 00:34:39.010
but,
1705
00:34:39.070 --> 00:34:39.389
uh,
1706
00:34:39.510 --> 00:34:40.620
it's Senate Fantasy.com,
1707
00:34:40.708 --> 00:34:40.909
by the way,
1708
00:34:40.989 --> 00:34:42.708
if you wanna jump in and take on PMT,
1709
00:34:43.030 --> 00:34:43.330
um,
1710
00:34:43.510 --> 00:34:43.708
we,
1711
00:34:43.790 --> 00:34:44.610
uh,
1712
00:34:44.668 --> 00:34:45.870
as I was looking at these races,
1713
00:34:45.949 --> 00:34:46.219
you know,
1714
00:34:46.469 --> 00:34:46.590
I,
1715
00:34:46.668 --> 00:34:48.060
I think everyone kind of has this assumption,
1716
00:34:48.090 --> 00:34:48.949
and I think correct,
1717
00:34:49.110 --> 00:34:49.379
uh,
1718
00:34:49.629 --> 00:34:49.938
correctly,
1719
00:34:49.949 --> 00:34:50.790
that this is going to be a,
1720
00:34:50.870 --> 00:34:50.969
a,
1721
00:34:51.030 --> 00:34:51.870
a Democratic year,
1722
00:34:51.989 --> 00:34:52.110
right?
1723
00:34:52.149 --> 00:34:52.469
Like this,
1724
00:34:52.590 --> 00:34:52.600
uh,
1725
00:34:52.750 --> 00:34:53.510
that's history.
1726
00:34:53.655 --> 00:34:56.054
Tells us that's gonna happen even if things were going perfectly.
1727
00:34:56.415 --> 00:34:57.695
Probably be a democratic year.
1728
00:34:58.004 --> 00:35:00.375
Things may be not going all that perfectly at the moment
1729
00:35:00.534 --> 00:35:01.405
in some areas.
1730
00:35:01.495 --> 00:35:01.834
So
1731
00:35:02.094 --> 00:35:02.735
we kind of see this.
1732
00:35:02.854 --> 00:35:03.135
There's a,
1733
00:35:03.225 --> 00:35:04.314
there's a wave
1734
00:35:04.695 --> 00:35:06.125
sort of a gap here though,
1735
00:35:06.205 --> 00:35:06.314
right?
1736
00:35:06.375 --> 00:35:06.695
There's the,
1737
00:35:06.814 --> 00:35:09.165
the blue ripple all the way to the blue tsunami.
1738
00:35:09.614 --> 00:35:10.854
When you're thinking about these markets,
1739
00:35:10.935 --> 00:35:14.395
are you trying to figure out which one of them that it is
1740
00:35:14.574 --> 00:35:15.554
and then playing,
1741
00:35:15.574 --> 00:35:15.834
uh,
1742
00:35:15.955 --> 00:35:16.375
that way,
1743
00:35:16.495 --> 00:35:18.574
or are you looking for things that you think are
1744
00:35:18.574 --> 00:35:20.695
more sure things to try to lock in value?
1745
00:35:21.989 --> 00:35:22.149
Yeah,
1746
00:35:22.260 --> 00:35:22.629
you know,
1747
00:35:22.709 --> 00:35:23.149
um,
1748
00:35:23.510 --> 00:35:23.669
I,
1749
00:35:23.790 --> 00:35:24.550
I would say I'm,
1750
00:35:24.590 --> 00:35:25.530
I'm probably
1751
00:35:25.989 --> 00:35:29.270
on the ladder where I'm more looking for things that
1752
00:35:29.270 --> 00:35:31.629
are as close to a sure thing as possible.
1753
00:35:31.709 --> 00:35:32.260
Obviously,
1754
00:35:32.310 --> 00:35:33.350
there's risk in everything,
1755
00:35:33.429 --> 00:35:33.620
but,
1756
00:35:33.780 --> 00:35:33.939
you know,
1757
00:35:34.030 --> 00:35:36.969
something I like about your content actually today I saw,
1758
00:35:37.300 --> 00:35:37.620
um,
1759
00:35:37.709 --> 00:35:38.189
was,
1760
00:35:38.270 --> 00:35:38.500
uh,
1761
00:35:38.550 --> 00:35:40.989
you had a post about Ilhan Omar,
1762
00:35:41.270 --> 00:35:41.620
um,
1763
00:35:41.709 --> 00:35:42.909
and those are the exact,
1764
00:35:43.030 --> 00:35:43.350
you know,
1765
00:35:43.429 --> 00:35:44.989
positions that I really like.
1766
00:35:45.100 --> 00:35:45.189
I,
1767
00:35:45.270 --> 00:35:48.129
I did start buying a lot of Ilhan Omar seeing your post today.
1768
00:35:48.270 --> 00:35:48.550
Nice,
1769
00:35:48.590 --> 00:35:49.070
um.
1770
00:35:49.659 --> 00:35:53.270
But that is where the majority of my bankroll is,
1771
00:35:53.350 --> 00:35:54.290
is allocated,
1772
00:35:54.350 --> 00:35:54.709
um,
1773
00:35:54.820 --> 00:35:56.189
and what I would say is,
1774
00:35:56.350 --> 00:35:56.959
um,
1775
00:35:57.550 --> 00:35:57.830
you know,
1776
00:35:57.949 --> 00:35:58.030
you,
1777
00:35:58.149 --> 00:35:59.530
you look at things like.
1778
00:36:00.020 --> 00:36:00.729
Uh,
1779
00:36:01.129 --> 00:36:03.270
Becerra to win in California.
1780
00:36:03.550 --> 00:36:03.969
You know,
1781
00:36:04.110 --> 00:36:04.300
I,
1782
00:36:04.389 --> 00:36:05.989
I would probably put that at,
1783
00:36:06.149 --> 00:36:06.649
you know,
1784
00:36:06.899 --> 00:36:08.350
99.8,
1785
00:36:08.429 --> 00:36:08.750
90.
1786
00:36:08.830 --> 00:36:09.149
I mean,
1787
00:36:09.350 --> 00:36:09.669
you know,
1788
00:36:09.830 --> 00:36:11.070
it's hard once you get that high,
1789
00:36:11.169 --> 00:36:11.379
but,
1790
00:36:11.830 --> 00:36:12.310
and I mean,
1791
00:36:12.429 --> 00:36:13.060
if you,
1792
00:36:13.389 --> 00:36:14.790
depending on which exchange you're,
1793
00:36:14.870 --> 00:36:15.550
you're looking at,
1794
00:36:15.590 --> 00:36:17.389
you can get that for 95 cents,
1795
00:36:17.469 --> 00:36:18.610
94 cents,
1796
00:36:18.899 --> 00:36:19.429
um.
1797
00:36:19.739 --> 00:36:20.300
You know,
1798
00:36:20.939 --> 00:36:21.060
to,
1799
00:36:21.179 --> 00:36:21.300
to,
1800
00:36:21.449 --> 00:36:22.340
to many people,
1801
00:36:22.419 --> 00:36:23.139
that sounds very,
1802
00:36:23.260 --> 00:36:23.909
very boring,
1803
00:36:23.939 --> 00:36:24.899
and I understand,
1804
00:36:25.060 --> 00:36:25.239
right?
1805
00:36:25.340 --> 00:36:27.169
Like who wants to pick up 5 cents,
1806
00:36:27.260 --> 00:36:27.649
but,
1807
00:36:27.899 --> 00:36:28.060
you know,
1808
00:36:28.139 --> 00:36:30.260
when you think about it from just value,
1809
00:36:30.340 --> 00:36:30.479
right?
1810
00:36:30.570 --> 00:36:30.679
You're,
1811
00:36:30.739 --> 00:36:33.080
you're getting about 4 to 5 cents of edge
1812
00:36:33.250 --> 00:36:36.820
versus if you buy someone like Tallarico at 62 cents,
1813
00:36:36.879 --> 00:36:37.020
you know,
1814
00:36:37.090 --> 00:36:38.659
in order for that to be a good trade,
1815
00:36:38.860 --> 00:36:41.659
Tallarico's fair value would have to be 67 or 68 cents.
1816
00:36:41.739 --> 00:36:42.000
So,
1817
00:36:42.310 --> 00:36:42.870
Um,
1818
00:36:43.080 --> 00:36:45.750
I am definitely highly allocated into those,
1819
00:36:46.040 --> 00:36:46.280
you know,
1820
00:36:46.399 --> 00:36:47.320
what a lot of people would call,
1821
00:36:47.439 --> 00:36:47.560
you know,
1822
00:36:47.679 --> 00:36:48.379
bonds,
1823
00:36:48.600 --> 00:36:49.310
um,
1824
00:36:49.719 --> 00:36:51.320
because that's where I think there is a lot of value.
1825
00:36:51.360 --> 00:36:51.840
And then,
1826
00:36:51.959 --> 00:36:52.239
um,
1827
00:36:52.479 --> 00:36:54.520
because I was able to get a lot of those,
1828
00:36:54.620 --> 00:36:55.060
you know,
1829
00:36:55.429 --> 00:36:56.520
plus EV combos,
1830
00:36:56.560 --> 00:36:57.590
I am hoping for a,
1831
00:36:57.600 --> 00:36:57.800
uh,
1832
00:36:58.120 --> 00:37:01.580
Dem sweep or I also have some Republican sweep versions of the one.
1833
00:37:02.959 --> 00:37:03.280
yeah,
1834
00:37:03.600 --> 00:37:03.669
yeah,
1835
00:37:03.800 --> 00:37:03.879
no,
1836
00:37:04.080 --> 00:37:04.199
I,
1837
00:37:04.320 --> 00:37:04.560
that,
1838
00:37:04.760 --> 00:37:05.080
because that's,
1839
00:37:05.139 --> 00:37:06.070
I have a lot of those too,
1840
00:37:06.199 --> 00:37:06.560
and I,
1841
00:37:06.629 --> 00:37:07.959
I think people do look at those sometimes,
1842
00:37:08.000 --> 00:37:08.229
they're like,
1843
00:37:08.280 --> 00:37:08.639
oh gosh,
1844
00:37:08.679 --> 00:37:10.179
it's a 9 or 10%.
1845
00:37:10.610 --> 00:37:10.810
You know,
1846
00:37:10.889 --> 00:37:12.850
the Elon Omara is a good example in that like she has
1847
00:37:12.850 --> 00:37:16.929
this kind of story that brings her from 98.6% chance to win
1848
00:37:17.370 --> 00:37:20.560
down to 91 or 92.
1849
00:37:21.010 --> 00:37:21.350
Like,
1850
00:37:21.610 --> 00:37:21.810
you know,
1851
00:37:21.929 --> 00:37:22.100
look,
1852
00:37:22.290 --> 00:37:22.510
I,
1853
00:37:22.969 --> 00:37:23.090
my,
1854
00:37:23.169 --> 00:37:23.489
my theory,
1855
00:37:23.530 --> 00:37:24.810
I don't know if this is in the clip that you saw,
1856
00:37:24.889 --> 00:37:28.679
but my theory is even if she got arrested and they started a deportation process,
1857
00:37:28.810 --> 00:37:30.050
she'd still win that election.
1858
00:37:30.120 --> 00:37:30.330
Like I,
1859
00:37:30.340 --> 00:37:30.360
I think
1860
00:37:31.729 --> 00:37:32.169
there's,
1861
00:37:32.580 --> 00:37:33.489
she's up 40 points.
1862
00:37:33.560 --> 00:37:34.530
Like there's no or,
1863
00:37:34.610 --> 00:37:34.810
you know,
1864
00:37:34.889 --> 00:37:35.570
you would have to,
1865
00:37:35.729 --> 00:37:36.770
she'd have to get deported,
1866
00:37:36.929 --> 00:37:38.649
leave the state within like two weeks,
1867
00:37:38.770 --> 00:37:39.010
you know,
1868
00:37:39.090 --> 00:37:39.550
it's.
1869
00:37:40.110 --> 00:37:40.350
I was,
1870
00:37:40.429 --> 00:37:42.110
I was hoping to go on there and find a margin
1871
00:37:42.110 --> 00:37:44.550
market that where I could get her plus like 20 for,
1872
00:37:44.679 --> 00:37:44.709
for,
1873
00:37:44.770 --> 00:37:45.189
you know,
1874
00:37:45.510 --> 00:37:45.629
you know,
1875
00:37:45.669 --> 00:37:46.659
80 cents or something.
1876
00:37:46.909 --> 00:37:47.060
The,
1877
00:37:47.149 --> 00:37:47.310
the,
1878
00:37:47.389 --> 00:37:50.139
the lowest margin market is her plus 47.
1879
00:37:50.350 --> 00:37:50.729
Like,
1880
00:37:51.350 --> 00:37:51.649
like
1881
00:37:51.840 --> 00:37:52.139
there's,
1882
00:37:52.270 --> 00:37:52.929
and it's,
1883
00:37:53.350 --> 00:37:54.709
it's the same thing with California,
1884
00:37:54.790 --> 00:37:54.909
you know,
1885
00:37:54.989 --> 00:37:55.699
I think Bacera,
1886
00:37:55.750 --> 00:37:57.550
the lowest margin is like 12 plus,
1887
00:37:57.709 --> 00:37:58.070
um.
1888
00:37:58.439 --> 00:37:58.719
You know,
1889
00:37:58.879 --> 00:37:59.629
Kathy Hochel,
1890
00:37:59.679 --> 00:38:01.600
it starts to get a little more risky there,
1891
00:38:01.679 --> 00:38:02.300
but like,
1892
00:38:02.560 --> 00:38:04.040
I've found on exchanges,
1893
00:38:04.080 --> 00:38:05.879
Kathy Hochel at 91 cents,
1894
00:38:05.979 --> 00:38:06.899
92 cents,
1895
00:38:06.979 --> 00:38:07.239
you know,
1896
00:38:07.360 --> 00:38:10.540
so that's incredible to me because I view Hochel as
1897
00:38:11.000 --> 00:38:11.639
maybe 98,
1898
00:38:11.719 --> 00:38:12.780
99% fair value,
1899
00:38:13.310 --> 00:38:13.800
um,
1900
00:38:14.479 --> 00:38:16.000
and especially someone who's trading like you,
1901
00:38:16.060 --> 00:38:16.129
uh,
1902
00:38:16.199 --> 00:38:16.620
uh,
1903
00:38:16.639 --> 00:38:16.840
you know,
1904
00:38:16.909 --> 00:38:17.669
as much as you are,
1905
00:38:17.750 --> 00:38:18.120
and,
1906
00:38:18.149 --> 00:38:18.239
and,
1907
00:38:18.310 --> 00:38:19.120
and this is,
1908
00:38:19.199 --> 00:38:23.239
this is the advantage of being you where you have all these different things where,
1909
00:38:23.320 --> 00:38:23.439
you know,
1910
00:38:23.479 --> 00:38:24.199
it's sports,
1911
00:38:24.320 --> 00:38:24.520
it's,
1912
00:38:24.600 --> 00:38:24.800
uh,
1913
00:38:24.919 --> 00:38:25.909
it's mentions and everything else,
1914
00:38:25.919 --> 00:38:27.540
cause you can roll that over a lot.
1915
00:38:28.020 --> 00:38:29.500
One of the things I've found that's a little more
1916
00:38:29.500 --> 00:38:32.520
difficult in that like elections are largely my focus,
1917
00:38:32.699 --> 00:38:35.969
it was very fun to do this during primary season because every
1918
00:38:35.969 --> 00:38:39.459
Tuesday you have this like scheduled thing where I could take 5678,
1919
00:38:39.540 --> 00:38:40.800
9% all over the board
1920
00:38:41.139 --> 00:38:43.879
and really not have any uh risk to it at all.
1921
00:38:44.209 --> 00:38:44.639
Um,
1922
00:38:45.250 --> 00:38:46.010
with elections,
1923
00:38:46.340 --> 00:38:46.459
you know,
1924
00:38:46.540 --> 00:38:48.010
we're coming in here and it's tempting.
1925
00:38:48.020 --> 00:38:50.379
You want to go into some of these more risky contracts,
1926
00:38:50.419 --> 00:38:50.739
but
1927
00:38:51.060 --> 00:38:51.699
as we've seen,
1928
00:38:51.780 --> 00:38:53.409
if you have one of those that,
1929
00:38:53.540 --> 00:38:53.850
you know,
1930
00:38:54.020 --> 00:38:54.899
66,
1931
00:38:54.909 --> 00:38:56.669
you buy into and that loses.
1932
00:38:57.040 --> 00:38:59.939
You blow up a lot of 9 and 10% wins.
1933
00:39:00.159 --> 00:39:00.520
Um,
1934
00:39:00.639 --> 00:39:01.840
so you have to be very,
1935
00:39:01.919 --> 00:39:03.129
very careful on that.
1936
00:39:03.399 --> 00:39:03.780
Um,
1937
00:39:04.000 --> 00:39:04.120
uh,
1938
00:39:04.239 --> 00:39:04.600
PMT,
1939
00:39:04.800 --> 00:39:06.550
there's so many more questions I'd love to ask you,
1940
00:39:06.560 --> 00:39:07.840
and we'd love to have you back on again,
1941
00:39:07.919 --> 00:39:09.360
but we're out of time for today.
1942
00:39:09.639 --> 00:39:09.760
Uh,
1943
00:39:09.840 --> 00:39:10.879
should people just follow you on X?
1944
00:39:10.959 --> 00:39:12.300
What's the best way to follow your content?
1945
00:39:13.000 --> 00:39:13.120
Yeah,
1946
00:39:13.199 --> 00:39:14.000
just follow me on X.
1947
00:39:14.080 --> 00:39:14.229
I,
1948
00:39:14.280 --> 00:39:15.070
I post about,
1949
00:39:15.080 --> 00:39:15.290
uh,
1950
00:39:15.399 --> 00:39:17.000
prediction markets every day.
1951
00:39:17.540 --> 00:39:17.760
Yeah,
1952
00:39:18.030 --> 00:39:18.739
you do a great,
1953
00:39:18.790 --> 00:39:20.629
great content and oh I get great ideas.
1954
00:39:20.689 --> 00:39:21.350
I kind of was like,
1955
00:39:21.469 --> 00:39:21.750
hey,
1956
00:39:21.909 --> 00:39:23.050
can you guys not keep
1957
00:39:23.310 --> 00:39:26.620
tagging Calshi in your tweets about these mention markets,
1958
00:39:26.709 --> 00:39:26.860
uh,
1959
00:39:26.899 --> 00:39:29.370
and these combos because I want to try to take advantage of them,
1960
00:39:29.669 --> 00:39:30.030
but they were,
1961
00:39:30.149 --> 00:39:30.310
they were,
1962
00:39:30.540 --> 00:39:31.750
I'll DM you first next time.
1963
00:39:31.860 --> 00:39:32.110
OK,
1964
00:39:32.350 --> 00:39:32.989
thank you so much.
1965
00:39:33.209 --> 00:39:33.219
Uh,
1966
00:39:33.350 --> 00:39:33.750
PMT,
1967
00:39:33.830 --> 00:39:34.699
thanks so much for coming on the program.
1968
00:39:34.750 --> 00:39:35.350
We'll talk to you soon.
1969
00:39:35.469 --> 00:39:35.790
Take care.
1970
00:39:51.580 --> 00:39:53.209
Here's one I kinda like,
1971
00:39:53.340 --> 00:39:55.800
and this is just when I find a market that I kinda like.
1972
00:39:55.899 --> 00:39:58.659
I haven't done tons and tons of research and I just find it intriguing,
1973
00:39:58.899 --> 00:39:59.300
OK?
1974
00:39:59.580 --> 00:39:59.929
And,
1975
00:39:59.939 --> 00:40:00.800
uh,
1976
00:40:00.820 --> 00:40:03.100
this 1 may resolve today or maybe not.
1977
00:40:03.209 --> 00:40:03.409
Uh,
1978
00:40:03.500 --> 00:40:04.729
this is Tesla to set it's,
1979
00:40:04.780 --> 00:40:05.090
uh,
1980
00:40:05.100 --> 00:40:09.169
unveil its next generation Roadster sports EV after years of delay.
1981
00:40:09.580 --> 00:40:10.949
Long story to this one.
1982
00:40:11.379 --> 00:40:13.840
the first ever Tesla was called the Tesla Roadster.
1983
00:40:14.129 --> 00:40:14.260
Uh,
1984
00:40:14.379 --> 00:40:14.699
they've,
1985
00:40:14.860 --> 00:40:14.979
you know,
1986
00:40:15.340 --> 00:40:16.300
eventually stopped making it,
1987
00:40:16.540 --> 00:40:16.979
went to the,
1988
00:40:17.120 --> 00:40:17.260
you know,
1989
00:40:17.340 --> 00:40:19.780
the Model 3 and the Model Y and the S and the X and all the other things,
1990
00:40:19.860 --> 00:40:20.300
Cybertruck,
1991
00:40:20.340 --> 00:40:20.580
all that.
1992
00:40:21.399 --> 00:40:21.909
Um,
1993
00:40:22.050 --> 00:40:23.469
they announced in 2017,
1994
00:40:24.000 --> 00:40:24.889
2017,
1995
00:40:25.129 --> 00:40:26.429
they were going to have
1996
00:40:26.649 --> 00:40:28.169
a Tesla Roadster,
1997
00:40:28.209 --> 00:40:29.350
a new version of it,
1998
00:40:29.560 --> 00:40:32.770
and they've talked about it throughout 2017 all the way up to like 2020.
1999
00:40:32.850 --> 00:40:34.250
They talked about it a lot right before COVID.
2000
00:40:34.580 --> 00:40:34.959
Um,
2001
00:40:35.100 --> 00:40:36.060
and then it just never happened.
2002
00:40:36.209 --> 00:40:36.419
People were,
2003
00:40:36.500 --> 00:40:39.100
they were taking $50,000 deposits on these cars
2004
00:40:39.300 --> 00:40:41.560
and saying they were gonna cost $200,000
2005
00:40:42.419 --> 00:40:44.850
and have never produced one of these cars.
2006
00:40:45.100 --> 00:40:45.379
Well,
2007
00:40:45.780 --> 00:40:46.040
tonight,
2008
00:40:46.590 --> 00:40:47.820
that they're having a big event,
2009
00:40:47.979 --> 00:40:49.800
that's the expectation they're going to be,
2010
00:40:50.060 --> 00:40:50.530
uh,
2011
00:40:50.699 --> 00:40:50.979
you know,
2012
00:40:51.090 --> 00:40:54.389
revealing the brand new roadster after a very long delay.
2013
00:40:54.659 --> 00:40:54.939
Um,
2014
00:40:55.060 --> 00:40:55.479
here is,
2015
00:40:55.540 --> 00:40:55.649
uh,
2016
00:40:55.729 --> 00:40:56.459
Elon Musk's tweet.
2017
00:40:56.500 --> 00:40:56.699
He says,
2018
00:40:56.739 --> 00:40:57.699
timing is everything,
2019
00:40:57.770 --> 00:40:59.120
an interesting part of this now.
2020
00:40:59.760 --> 00:41:00.260
Um,
2021
00:41:00.669 --> 00:41:02.399
Roadster event streaming live this Thursday,
2022
00:41:02.479 --> 00:41:04.459
7:55 p.m. Central.
2023
00:41:04.560 --> 00:41:04.709
Now,
2024
00:41:04.760 --> 00:41:05.139
of course,
2025
00:41:05.350 --> 00:41:05.560
you know,
2026
00:41:05.679 --> 00:41:07.139
Austin is in Central time.
2027
00:41:07.439 --> 00:41:07.560
Um,
2028
00:41:07.600 --> 00:41:09.419
but I want you to hold that picture there for a second.
2029
00:41:09.639 --> 00:41:09.840
Um,
2030
00:41:10.090 --> 00:41:10.600
because if,
2031
00:41:10.879 --> 00:41:12.179
if you just for a moment,
2032
00:41:12.760 --> 00:41:13.000
take a,
2033
00:41:13.120 --> 00:41:13.979
take a moment and,
2034
00:41:14.060 --> 00:41:14.659
uh,
2035
00:41:14.879 --> 00:41:16.840
turn your head upside down as you're looking at the phone,
2036
00:41:16.909 --> 00:41:17.280
and I know,
2037
00:41:17.360 --> 00:41:17.510
or,
2038
00:41:17.560 --> 00:41:18.489
or the screen,
2039
00:41:18.760 --> 00:41:19.189
and it kinda like,
2040
00:41:19.199 --> 00:41:19.620
uh,
2041
00:41:19.800 --> 00:41:22.570
it kinda looks like there's like jets coming out of the bottom
2042
00:41:22.570 --> 00:41:24.780
of a car if you kind of turn your head upside down.
2043
00:41:25.080 --> 00:41:25.310
OK?
2044
00:41:25.389 --> 00:41:26.560
That's what this photo looks like.
2045
00:41:26.939 --> 00:41:28.219
You can't really tell what it is.
2046
00:41:28.330 --> 00:41:28.489
It's,
2047
00:41:28.540 --> 00:41:28.860
it's just,
2048
00:41:28.979 --> 00:41:29.360
you know,
2049
00:41:29.659 --> 00:41:29.979
who knows.
2050
00:41:30.100 --> 00:41:30.209
Now,
2051
00:41:30.219 --> 00:41:31.979
this car was supposed to go 0 to 60.
2052
00:41:32.050 --> 00:41:32.310
At first,
2053
00:41:32.340 --> 00:41:33.419
it was supposed to be under 2 seconds,
2054
00:41:33.500 --> 00:41:35.610
then it was supposed to be like 1.5 seconds.
2055
00:41:35.820 --> 00:41:37.919
There's some rumors that might do it in less than a second,
2056
00:41:38.219 --> 00:41:39.459
which I think would just give you whiplash.
2057
00:41:39.540 --> 00:41:40.040
I don't know.
2058
00:41:40.260 --> 00:41:40.489
Um,
2059
00:41:40.540 --> 00:41:40.919
but
2060
00:41:41.500 --> 00:41:43.239
there's an interesting little nugget there
2061
00:41:43.580 --> 00:41:44.139
with the time.
2062
00:41:44.300 --> 00:41:48.129
Why 7:55 Central time instead of 8:55 Eastern,
2063
00:41:48.219 --> 00:41:48.959
which is how most
2064
00:41:49.290 --> 00:41:50.419
companies would talk about that.
2065
00:41:50.889 --> 00:41:51.310
Um,
2066
00:41:51.530 --> 00:41:52.090
this is a,
2067
00:41:52.209 --> 00:41:53.280
this is super geek,
2068
00:41:53.459 --> 00:41:54.399
has said this on Twitter,
2069
00:41:54.449 --> 00:41:57.229
but it is very much replicated by many other commenters.
2070
00:41:57.449 --> 00:41:59.409
In pop culture and Tesla event history,
2071
00:41:59.510 --> 00:42:00.469
7:55,
2072
00:42:00.610 --> 00:42:02.250
1955 military time
2073
00:42:02.409 --> 00:42:05.520
is famously referenced in an Easter egg of the movie Back to the Future,
2074
00:42:05.610 --> 00:42:08.489
matching the 7:55 time in the opening scene clock and
2075
00:42:08.629 --> 00:42:11.750
1955 as the year Marty travels to.
2076
00:42:12.219 --> 00:42:13.790
A Back to the Future reference.
2077
00:42:14.370 --> 00:42:15.010
The rumor is,
2078
00:42:15.120 --> 00:42:16.100
and he's talked about this a little bit,
2079
00:42:16.169 --> 00:42:17.850
I think he talked about it on Rogan at one point.
2080
00:42:18.320 --> 00:42:18.810
Um,
2081
00:42:18.989 --> 00:42:20.580
it may be a flying car.
2082
00:42:21.120 --> 00:42:21.260
Now,
2083
00:42:21.320 --> 00:42:21.959
what does that mean?
2084
00:42:22.560 --> 00:42:22.719
You know,
2085
00:42:22.840 --> 00:42:23.909
Elon Musk says a lot of things,
2086
00:42:23.919 --> 00:42:24.239
you don't,
2087
00:42:24.439 --> 00:42:25.139
you don't know.
2088
00:42:25.389 --> 00:42:25.629
Um,
2089
00:42:25.760 --> 00:42:28.419
there's a rumor that if you kind of think it might be like almost like a,
2090
00:42:28.439 --> 00:42:28.750
uh,
2091
00:42:28.760 --> 00:42:30.989
ability to hover above the ground is what,
2092
00:42:31.120 --> 00:42:32.120
what people are guessing.
2093
00:42:32.199 --> 00:42:32.719
I don't know.
2094
00:42:32.919 --> 00:42:35.320
He says there's amazing technology nobody's ever seen in this car,
2095
00:42:35.379 --> 00:42:35.550
blah,
2096
00:42:35.560 --> 00:42:36.469
blah blah bla blahblah.
2097
00:42:37.250 --> 00:42:38.540
That brings me to the market that I like,
2098
00:42:38.620 --> 00:42:39.139
I kinda like.
2099
00:42:39.219 --> 00:42:40.360
Here's one I kinda like.
2100
00:42:40.899 --> 00:42:42.770
How much will the Tesla Roadster cost?
2101
00:42:42.860 --> 00:42:44.080
There are a bunch of options.
2102
00:42:44.300 --> 00:42:47.219
I wanna remind you that in 2017 to 2020,
2103
00:42:47.260 --> 00:42:49.840
it was supposed to be at about $200,000.
2104
00:42:50.129 --> 00:42:51.879
If you just have
2105
00:42:52.219 --> 00:42:52.770
a,
2106
00:42:52.780 --> 00:42:53.320
uh,
2107
00:42:53.330 --> 00:42:55.689
a situation where you put inflation to that number,
2108
00:42:55.979 --> 00:42:56.100
right?
2109
00:42:56.139 --> 00:42:57.739
It's over $250,000.
2110
00:42:57.850 --> 00:42:58.939
Give me the options at the bottom here,
2111
00:42:58.989 --> 00:42:59.399
Adam.
2112
00:42:59.729 --> 00:43:00.379
Um,
2113
00:43:01.169 --> 00:43:03.120
250,000 is,
2114
00:43:03.250 --> 00:43:03.639
uh,
2115
00:43:03.729 --> 00:43:05.449
at least now it's up to 99%.
2116
00:43:05.649 --> 00:43:06.530
This market's all over the place,
2117
00:43:06.689 --> 00:43:07.159
not a ton of,
2118
00:43:07.169 --> 00:43:08.169
uh,
2119
00:43:08.209 --> 00:43:08.889
uh,
2120
00:43:08.899 --> 00:43:08.909
um,
2121
00:43:08.919 --> 00:43:09.570
of volume in there.
2122
00:43:09.770 --> 00:43:10.050
You see,
2123
00:43:10.169 --> 00:43:13.810
at least 225,000 is a 72% chance of happening,
2124
00:43:14.159 --> 00:43:14.570
um.
2125
00:43:15.350 --> 00:43:15.709
I'm sorry,
2126
00:43:15.790 --> 00:43:16.820
a $200,000 car,
2127
00:43:16.830 --> 00:43:17.649
that was just a cool car,
2128
00:43:18.030 --> 00:43:18.770
plus
2129
00:43:19.070 --> 00:43:20.300
all this new technology,
2130
00:43:20.429 --> 00:43:21.169
plus
2131
00:43:21.989 --> 00:43:23.929
10 years of waiting.
2132
00:43:24.389 --> 00:43:24.580
I,
2133
00:43:24.750 --> 00:43:24.820
well,
2134
00:43:25.110 --> 00:43:25.219
they,
2135
00:43:25.310 --> 00:43:25.500
they,
2136
00:43:25.550 --> 00:43:26.750
they're gonna discount this thing?
2137
00:43:26.830 --> 00:43:26.949
I mean,
2138
00:43:26.989 --> 00:43:27.070
I,
2139
00:43:27.189 --> 00:43:27.300
I,
2140
00:43:27.389 --> 00:43:27.669
I don't know.
2141
00:43:27.770 --> 00:43:27.860
I,
2142
00:43:27.909 --> 00:43:28.100
I'm,
2143
00:43:28.189 --> 00:43:30.219
I'm in on over 250,000,
2144
00:43:30.270 --> 00:43:30.699
I know,
2145
00:43:30.939 --> 00:43:33.350
which I should probably sell now seeing that it's at 99,
2146
00:43:33.590 --> 00:43:34.080
um,
2147
00:43:34.429 --> 00:43:35.729
because I think I've already won that one.
2148
00:43:36.070 --> 00:43:36.260
but,
2149
00:43:36.310 --> 00:43:36.889
uh,
2150
00:43:36.899 --> 00:43:37.750
even 275,
2151
00:43:37.790 --> 00:43:38.379
I got some over.
2152
00:43:38.429 --> 00:43:39.489
I think it's gonna be higher.
2153
00:43:40.070 --> 00:43:41.189
It's only 39%,
2154
00:43:41.229 --> 00:43:42.750
at least if it's showing here on this market.
2155
00:43:42.790 --> 00:43:44.590
It's jumping all over the place cause there's not tons of,
2156
00:43:44.629 --> 00:43:44.879
uh,
2157
00:43:44.889 --> 00:43:45.229
volume.
2158
00:43:45.310 --> 00:43:46.860
But check this market out if you're interested.
2159
00:43:47.189 --> 00:43:49.379
The only thing I will warn you on it real quick is that,
2160
00:43:49.389 --> 00:43:49.750
um,
2161
00:43:50.340 --> 00:43:51.780
If he doesn't announce a price,
2162
00:43:51.860 --> 00:43:53.560
this thing could hang out there for a while.
2163
00:43:53.979 --> 00:43:54.159
So,
2164
00:43:54.179 --> 00:43:54.620
I don't know.
2165
00:43:54.729 --> 00:43:54.860
I,
2166
00:43:55.100 --> 00:43:56.540
everyone assumes he's gonna announce a price tonight,
2167
00:43:56.620 --> 00:43:57.060
but who knows.
2168
00:43:57.139 --> 00:43:57.260
OK,
2169
00:43:57.340 --> 00:43:58.060
I gotta take a quick break,
2170
00:43:58.090 --> 00:43:58.540
back in a second.
2171
00:44:08.050 --> 00:44:09.850
If you find it hard to keep track of all
2172
00:44:09.850 --> 00:44:12.370
the different elections and prediction markets I talk about,
2173
00:44:12.530 --> 00:44:16.149
the one easy way to do it is to go to predict predictableshow.com.
2174
00:44:16.520 --> 00:44:17.080
If you go there,
2175
00:44:17.239 --> 00:44:19.419
premium subscribers get access to every single position
2176
00:44:19.419 --> 00:44:21.260
that I have in every prediction market.
2177
00:44:21.840 --> 00:44:22.600
So that's kind of cool.
2178
00:44:22.709 --> 00:44:22.840
Uh,
2179
00:44:23.000 --> 00:44:24.139
over 350 of them.
2180
00:44:24.399 --> 00:44:24.479
Uh,
2181
00:44:24.560 --> 00:44:26.679
so you can go there and see the good and see the bad,
2182
00:44:26.879 --> 00:44:28.639
and see if you wanna follow along on those.
2183
00:44:28.750 --> 00:44:31.419
A new edition of Stu's Picks comes out tomorrow,
2184
00:44:31.719 --> 00:44:31.879
uh,
2185
00:44:31.959 --> 00:44:33.699
so you can get in line for that.
2186
00:44:34.000 --> 00:44:34.110
Uh,
2187
00:44:34.159 --> 00:44:34.320
also,
2188
00:44:34.360 --> 00:44:35.979
I wanna tell you about Senate Fantasy.com.
2189
00:44:36.040 --> 00:44:37.879
It's a kind of a big initiative here before the election.
2190
00:44:38.000 --> 00:44:39.149
Would love for you to spread it around,
2191
00:44:39.320 --> 00:44:40.510
challenge your friends on this.
2192
00:44:40.800 --> 00:44:42.439
Put them on record cause they're always running
2193
00:44:42.439 --> 00:44:43.629
their mouth about how much they know.
2194
00:44:43.959 --> 00:44:44.500
Do they?
2195
00:44:44.679 --> 00:44:45.199
Do they?
2196
00:44:45.530 --> 00:44:46.030
Um,
2197
00:44:46.370 --> 00:44:47.209
the Senate Fantasy,
2198
00:44:47.290 --> 00:44:47.449
uh,
2199
00:44:47.570 --> 00:44:49.010
leaderboard is up now,
2200
00:44:49.040 --> 00:44:51.050
and there are cash prizes and no cost.
2201
00:44:51.280 --> 00:44:51.570
So,
2202
00:44:51.649 --> 00:44:52.129
kind of fun.
2203
00:44:52.330 --> 00:44:53.729
You start at about 1000,
2204
00:44:53.810 --> 00:44:53.889
uh,
2205
00:44:54.050 --> 00:44:56.350
you start at 1000 points and it goes up and down from there.
2206
00:44:56.649 --> 00:44:56.729
Uh,
2207
00:44:56.770 --> 00:45:01.199
you see suboptimal predictions leading the way right now at 1,023 points,
2208
00:45:01.489 --> 00:45:01.610
um,
2209
00:45:01.689 --> 00:45:02.889
and it goes all the way down to,
2210
00:45:02.969 --> 00:45:03.090
uh,
2211
00:45:03.199 --> 00:45:03.370
you know,
2212
00:45:03.489 --> 00:45:03.600
uh,
2213
00:45:03.679 --> 00:45:04.669
you can look at the entire,
2214
00:45:04.729 --> 00:45:04.989
uh,
2215
00:45:05.010 --> 00:45:05.370
screen,
2216
00:45:05.530 --> 00:45:05.719
uh,
2217
00:45:05.729 --> 00:45:05.889
here.
2218
00:45:05.969 --> 00:45:06.370
I will say,
2219
00:45:06.449 --> 00:45:06.560
uh,
2220
00:45:06.649 --> 00:45:07.330
noticing towards the end,
2221
00:45:07.409 --> 00:45:08.080
the LP machine,
2222
00:45:08.139 --> 00:45:08.959
which is my wife,
2223
00:45:09.169 --> 00:45:10.500
is in 4th to last.
2224
00:45:10.729 --> 00:45:11.320
And I gotta tell you,
2225
00:45:11.370 --> 00:45:11.810
I think my,
2226
00:45:11.889 --> 00:45:13.149
my son probably picked her team.
2227
00:45:13.580 --> 00:45:13.780
Um,
2228
00:45:13.830 --> 00:45:14.610
but I don't know that for sure.
2229
00:45:14.689 --> 00:45:14.770
We'll,
2230
00:45:14.850 --> 00:45:14.969
we'll,
2231
00:45:15.020 --> 00:45:16.050
I'll ask him about that later.
2232
00:45:16.219 --> 00:45:17.360
You can get in as well,
2233
00:45:17.540 --> 00:45:17.699
uh,
2234
00:45:17.820 --> 00:45:18.879
right now for free,
2235
00:45:19.020 --> 00:45:20.300
Senate Fantasy.com.
2236
00:45:20.500 --> 00:45:20.770
Join us.
2237
00:45:20.820 --> 00:45:23.290
It's just a lot of fun and you can win real cash prizes.
2238
00:45:23.459 --> 00:45:24.260
Although my wife can't,
2239
00:45:24.340 --> 00:45:25.020
just to be clear.
2240
00:45:25.290 --> 00:45:25.459
All right,
2241
00:45:25.570 --> 00:45:28.479
we will see you a little bit more on PredictableShow.com later on.
2242
00:45:28.580 --> 00:45:29.020
Bye-bye.