Are We Overlooking a MAJOR Factor in our Midterm Calculations??

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Panic day has come and gone,
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but I have one final potential saving grace for the GOP in the midterms.
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I will tell you all about it today.
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If you haven't heard the name Wedgwood Polls before,
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you're not gonna believe what they've been up to this election season.
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And I will defend the castle against the throngs at the gates
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as another idiotic lawsuit is filed against Prediction Markets.
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We'll get into that,
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all of that coming up,
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and so much more on Predictable
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with Stu.
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We have 13 days until the midterm elections.
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Early voting is happening in 36 states.
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That's where we stand
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today,
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and I will say tonight.
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You might be saying,
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wow,
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well,
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what's going on tonight?
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Lots of,
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uh,
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there's NBA on some of the first games of
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the season for many NBA teams coming up tonight.
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Sure,
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that's on the,
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that's on the docket if you want to get into that.
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But also big debate night.
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Uh,
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honestly,
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we should check to see which bench markets there are.
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Adam,
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uh,
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for these debates tonight.
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Three huge ones,
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I will say tonight.
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I mean,
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legitimately huge debates.
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Michigan Senate,
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Al Sayed versus Rogers at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time tonight.
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The Kansas Senate,
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we haven't heard too much out of this.
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There's been some crazy,
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they had a crazy debate earlier at like a fair.
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I don't know,
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maybe this one's gonna be more normal.
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Roger Marshall versus Adam Hamilton.
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That's 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
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And Wisconsin governor is not a race that has had a lot of attention.
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The polling's still pretty close there,
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and I never,
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uh,
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one of the rules on this program,
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never trust a poll from Wisconsin ever.
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Um,
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Wisconsin Governor David Crowley versus Tom Tiffany,
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that's 8:00 p.m. tonight as well.
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Uh,
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Minnesota governors also tonight,
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Klobuchar and Dumuth,
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which has been,
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you know,
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relatively close.
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Minnesota has been kind of a weird state.
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Uh,
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to watch for the sort of Democratic blue wave we're supposed to see.
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Uh,
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one reminder,
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uh,
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for you,
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go to Senatefantasy.com,
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get your Senate fantasy picks in.
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We've got a chance for you to win up to $2500
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plus a lifetime subscription to PredictableShow.com as part of that first place
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prize.
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Uh,
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we have a great,
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uh,
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group.
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Group of teams on there and you can come up.
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Now we're gonna,
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maybe we'll give some prizes out too
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for the best names cause there's some great fantasy team names that I love
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on the Senate Fantasy leaderboard.
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So go check that out,
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even if you're not,
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I mean,
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look,
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it's free.
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Why would you not be in on it?
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But even if you're not in on it,
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go to the leaderboard
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at senatefantassy.com and laugh at all the names
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cause some of them are really creative.
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Um,
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I want to focus on.
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Polling error.
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Today.
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Polls are not perfect.
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You may know that,
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uh,
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that might be a little bit of an understatement,
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but what I always say about polling,
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and this is something that it's important to understand,
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is that polling is not designed to be a surgical incident,
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uh,
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uh,
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instrument.
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It is designed to be a blunt instrument.
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It tells you
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very well,
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but the polls are really good at telling you general strokes,
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uh,
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broad strokes about the election,
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right?
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General themes about an election or a topic.
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They're very good at that.
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Um,
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they are not very good at surgical differences between two candidates at 48%.
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It's really hard for polls to do,
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and they don't do that very well.
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And we,
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uh,
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uh,
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as people who don't really care about the statistical background of polls,
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what we care about are the outcomes.
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Who's gonna win the race?
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For people who want,
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we are asking out of polls something that they're not really designed to give us.
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And we are constantly demanding these,
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uh,
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very intricate differences in,
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in races that are just,
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you know,
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it's,
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it's just not what polling does well.
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Can be good,
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but it isn't always.
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And you look at the polls right now,
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they're not very good if you happen to be a Republican or a conservative.
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If you are a Democrat or a liberal,
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you're loving the polls right now.
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You can't get enough polling content.
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So let me break,
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uh,
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there's two new polls out today.
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Uh,
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two pretty big ones
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that,
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um,
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that aren't about each individual race or more
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generally thematic of the race and talking about,
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is there a blue wave and how big will it be?
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Let me start off with this one.
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This is one of the,
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you know,
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the biggest pollsters out there,
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New York Times,
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Sienna College.
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Um,
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Democrats have a wide lead in our new poll as Trump slides.
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Part of the story here,
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of course,
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is Donald Trump and his approval rating,
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which is not very good.
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You may have heard,
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not exactly,
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uh,
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stellar at the moment with,
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uh,
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registered voters.
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This is of course a poll.
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This is,
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I believe,
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a likely voter poll.
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Um,
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I know it is a likely voter,
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uh,
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poll,
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which is common at this point in the campaign.
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You're not gonna necessarily do a registered voter or all adults
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poll because it's not really gonna give you that much information.
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You want likely voters.
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So
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this,
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uh,
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particular chart from The New York Times,
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and it is a chart of Palooza today,
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we've got a lot of charts coming.
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In your way,
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uh,
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of course,
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you on podcast,
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if you're listening on audio,
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I will do my best to describe these for you,
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um,
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but this is how support for Donald Trump has changed
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over time.
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In 2020,
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he was about a this is among,
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uh,
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younger voters,
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by the way,
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uh,
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he's about a -25,
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but you expect him to be kind of in the negative among younger voters.
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In 2024,
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he went from -25
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up into about -8,
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not too bad for Donald Trump in,
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uh,
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January in 2024 for that election.
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By January 2026,
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it had gone from -8
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to -46.
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In January,
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and today,
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it sits at -55.
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That's not good
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for non-white voters,
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you see a -35 in,
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uh,
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in,
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uh,
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back in 2020
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turn into,
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um,
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about a -20 in 2024.
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Still not a great number,
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but much,
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much better than he was.
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Uh,
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now it is all the way down to over -50.
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Regis all registered voters,
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here we go,
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registered voters,
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you're at -5.
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0,
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I just got a major buzz in my ear there.
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Ouch,
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that hurt.
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That hurt.
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Um,
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you now have a half-deaf host.
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Um,
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OK,
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registered voters at -8,
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uh,
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uh,
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was where he was back in 2020.
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He brought it up to basically even
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for the 2024 election,
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that backed off to about -13.
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Uh,
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in 20 in January of this year and is now at -25.
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The pattern is similar for almost all
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of these voters.
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Um,
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you're seeing a drop,
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with the exception of white voters who have dropped kind of like
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very minimally until January and then a big drop till today.
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Uh,
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everything else has been kind of this like U-turn,
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right?
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Where it was at a kind of at a bad point,
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reversed to kind of a good point,
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and has now gotten to an even worse point than where it started.
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That is where Donald Trump is.
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Now,
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again,
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presidential approval rating does not tell the entire story.
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You can believe or not believe these polls.
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What I would say is to believe the generalities.
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Don't get caught up in the specific numbers,
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get caught up a little bit in the generalities here,
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which is
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that Donald Trump is not very popular right now.
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We can give you the reasons for that.
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We've talked about it before,
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the Iran war is central,
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I think,
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to
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the falloff at least from January of this year.
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I mean,
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it's almost all Iran war related since then,
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but there are other things that kind of pushed him into
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a more negative position before that as well that are factors.
287
00:06:57.100 --> 00:06:59.630
This is a jarring chart I'm about to show you.
288
00:06:59.970 --> 00:07:01.809
And this is a chart that can put
289
00:07:02.010 --> 00:07:04.640
the potential of a blue tsunami,
290
00:07:05.010 --> 00:07:05.829
blue wave
291
00:07:06.089 --> 00:07:06.750
into
292
00:07:07.049 --> 00:07:07.720
perspective.
293
00:07:07.890 --> 00:07:08.209
Again,
294
00:07:08.320 --> 00:07:10.209
this is not about this negative polling.
295
00:07:10.260 --> 00:07:12.329
I'm going to talk about polling error here in a second,
296
00:07:12.429 --> 00:07:13.640
so don't get caught up if you're like,
297
00:07:13.690 --> 00:07:14.000
oh gosh,
298
00:07:14.049 --> 00:07:14.329
I want,
299
00:07:14.410 --> 00:07:15.089
I want good things for.
300
00:07:15.364 --> 00:07:17.045
Republicans don't get caught up in the bad news,
301
00:07:17.285 --> 00:07:17.494
uh,
302
00:07:17.505 --> 00:07:17.785
yet.
303
00:07:17.964 --> 00:07:20.244
And if you are a person who's on the left and you're saying,
304
00:07:20.285 --> 00:07:20.404
oh,
305
00:07:20.445 --> 00:07:21.484
this is the greatest news of all time,
306
00:07:21.565 --> 00:07:21.714
uh,
307
00:07:21.774 --> 00:07:22.234
hold on,
308
00:07:22.325 --> 00:07:23.404
because these things might not be true.
309
00:07:23.484 --> 00:07:23.785
But
310
00:07:24.165 --> 00:07:24.825
generally
311
00:07:25.035 --> 00:07:25.364
speaking,
312
00:07:25.515 --> 00:07:27.364
Donald Trump is not a very popular president right now.
313
00:07:27.524 --> 00:07:30.584
This is the list of presidents going back to the 40s,
314
00:07:30.885 --> 00:07:31.125
um,
315
00:07:31.244 --> 00:07:34.394
all of them together and where they were going into their midterms.
316
00:07:34.684 --> 00:07:36.285
The least popular one among them.
317
00:07:36.970 --> 00:07:37.570
Was Harry S.
318
00:07:37.649 --> 00:07:40.059
Truman at 33% approval rating.
319
00:07:40.149 --> 00:07:41.809
You might remember that Harry S.
320
00:07:41.820 --> 00:07:44.070
Truman actually turned out to be relatively popular by the,
321
00:07:44.089 --> 00:07:44.549
uh,
322
00:07:44.730 --> 00:07:45.730
historically speaking.
323
00:07:47.070 --> 00:07:47.470
However,
324
00:07:47.549 --> 00:07:49.070
you see the people around him.
325
00:07:49.309 --> 00:07:51.269
Harry Truman in 1950 also not popular.
326
00:07:51.470 --> 00:07:55.070
George Bush in 2006 is an illustrative example.
327
00:07:55.149 --> 00:07:56.850
He was at 37% approval
328
00:07:57.029 --> 00:07:57.890
in between
329
00:07:58.190 --> 00:07:59.269
Harry Truman and George W.
330
00:07:59.350 --> 00:07:59.929
Bush
331
00:08:00.070 --> 00:08:01.130
in his second term.
332
00:08:02.170 --> 00:08:02.809
Donald Trump,
333
00:08:02.929 --> 00:08:04.450
34% approval.
334
00:08:04.690 --> 00:08:06.290
If you could go down a little while,
335
00:08:06.450 --> 00:08:08.630
you will eventually get to Ronald Reagan
336
00:08:08.929 --> 00:08:10.089
at 42%,
337
00:08:10.209 --> 00:08:14.529
who wound up being very popular just a couple of years after that 1982 poll.
338
00:08:14.929 --> 00:08:15.109
Uh,
339
00:08:15.209 --> 00:08:18.329
Barack Obama in 2014 was only at 42%.
340
00:08:18.450 --> 00:08:19.230
It's looked back
341
00:08:19.570 --> 00:08:21.420
at positively certainly by the media.
342
00:08:21.690 --> 00:08:22.679
2018,
343
00:08:22.809 --> 00:08:23.660
Donald Trump
344
00:08:23.809 --> 00:08:25.220
at 42%
345
00:08:25.329 --> 00:08:26.320
in his first midterm,
346
00:08:26.390 --> 00:08:26.869
so he is.
347
00:08:27.380 --> 00:08:30.209
Less popular by 8 points from his first midterm,
348
00:08:30.459 --> 00:08:33.099
he is less popular than 2006 George W.
349
00:08:33.140 --> 00:08:33.419
Bush,
350
00:08:33.500 --> 00:08:36.530
which I will remind you was a catastrophic year for Republicans.
351
00:08:36.820 --> 00:08:37.479
That does not mean
352
00:08:37.900 --> 00:08:38.859
this is the only factor.
353
00:08:39.609 --> 00:08:41.520
But it is gonna give you a sense as to where
354
00:08:42.020 --> 00:08:45.599
things stand right now in the uphill battle that Republicans are looking at.
355
00:08:46.020 --> 00:08:47.619
The generic poll was also in here,
356
00:08:47.659 --> 00:08:48.219
to remind you,
357
00:08:48.340 --> 00:08:48.510
uh,
358
00:08:48.580 --> 00:08:49.809
for non-polling nerds,
359
00:08:49.859 --> 00:08:52.340
the generic poll is a poll that basically asks you,
360
00:08:52.580 --> 00:08:52.659
hey,
361
00:08:52.700 --> 00:08:55.260
you're gonna vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate this time.
362
00:08:55.619 --> 00:08:55.919
And,
363
00:08:56.090 --> 00:08:56.229
uh,
364
00:08:56.299 --> 00:08:57.820
so it gives you kind of a just a party,
365
00:08:58.090 --> 00:09:00.539
two-party idea as to where things stand.
366
00:09:00.909 --> 00:09:02.580
The reason why this is important is it kind of
367
00:09:02.580 --> 00:09:04.710
gives you a tone of the climate of an election.
368
00:09:04.830 --> 00:09:05.989
What is the current of the election?
369
00:09:06.109 --> 00:09:06.669
What is the,
370
00:09:06.989 --> 00:09:09.570
what's the playing field look like in this game we're about to begin?
371
00:09:10.869 --> 00:09:11.270
Uh,
372
00:09:11.390 --> 00:09:12.770
that poll right now is
373
00:09:13.030 --> 00:09:14.429
-11
374
00:09:14.590 --> 00:09:15.820
for Republicans,
375
00:09:15.830 --> 00:09:17.020
according to The New York Times,
376
00:09:17.270 --> 00:09:19.440
52 to 41
377
00:09:19.710 --> 00:09:20.270
is the number.
378
00:09:20.390 --> 00:09:21.669
-11
379
00:09:21.989 --> 00:09:22.530
is,
380
00:09:22.669 --> 00:09:22.979
you know,
381
00:09:23.460 --> 00:09:24.710
legitimately catastrophic.
382
00:09:24.750 --> 00:09:26.869
If that's the real number on election day,
383
00:09:26.989 --> 00:09:28.729
this will be a blue tsunami.
384
00:09:29.270 --> 00:09:31.489
It will be a situation where Democrats
385
00:09:31.669 --> 00:09:33.119
not only pick up the House and the Senate,
386
00:09:33.150 --> 00:09:34.010
but have major
387
00:09:34.390 --> 00:09:35.830
gains to the point they might be at,
388
00:09:35.989 --> 00:09:36.150
you know,
389
00:09:36.190 --> 00:09:36.580
53,
390
00:09:36.650 --> 00:09:36.989
54,
391
00:09:37.070 --> 00:09:38.229
55 seats in the Senate.
392
00:09:38.719 --> 00:09:39.330
So that's what that is.
393
00:09:39.489 --> 00:09:39.599
Now,
394
00:09:39.609 --> 00:09:40.409
let me give you another poll.
395
00:09:40.530 --> 00:09:40.719
Uh,
396
00:09:40.890 --> 00:09:42.010
Strength in numbers is,
397
00:09:42.090 --> 00:09:42.270
uh,
398
00:09:42.409 --> 00:09:43.320
has a new poll out.
399
00:09:43.570 --> 00:09:45.409
Democrats post their biggest generic ballot lead,
400
00:09:45.530 --> 00:09:45.640
uh,
401
00:09:45.729 --> 00:09:46.150
yet
402
00:09:46.369 --> 00:09:47.210
two weeks out.
403
00:09:47.450 --> 00:09:48.169
Here is their poll.
404
00:09:48.239 --> 00:09:50.400
You see how it's bounced around from time to time,
405
00:09:50.469 --> 00:09:52.799
but currently at 52 to 41%.
406
00:09:52.849 --> 00:09:53.340
And again,
407
00:09:53.369 --> 00:09:54.650
an 11 point lead.
408
00:09:54.969 --> 00:09:55.929
On the generic
409
00:09:56.169 --> 00:09:56.530
ballot,
410
00:09:56.650 --> 00:09:56.890
a,
411
00:09:57.000 --> 00:09:57.809
a massive one,
412
00:09:58.200 --> 00:09:58.729
frankly.
413
00:09:59.049 --> 00:09:59.400
Again,
414
00:09:59.559 --> 00:10:00.109
I think
415
00:10:00.289 --> 00:10:01.429
if you think of the two
416
00:10:01.969 --> 00:10:02.590
recent
417
00:10:03.090 --> 00:10:04.309
terrible elections
418
00:10:04.729 --> 00:10:05.239
for,
419
00:10:05.250 --> 00:10:06.090
um,
420
00:10:06.099 --> 00:10:07.549
Republicans that were midterms,
421
00:10:07.729 --> 00:10:09.409
you think of 2018,
422
00:10:09.640 --> 00:10:10.409
very bad year.
423
00:10:10.650 --> 00:10:14.349
The generic ballot at that point was about a -8 for Republicans.
424
00:10:14.760 --> 00:10:14.929
Uh,
425
00:10:15.000 --> 00:10:15.809
2006,
426
00:10:15.890 --> 00:10:17.570
I don't have that one actually in front of me,
427
00:10:17.650 --> 00:10:19.349
but it was worse than 2018.
428
00:10:19.409 --> 00:10:20.359
It might have been 2010 or 2011,
429
00:10:20.409 --> 00:10:21.690
I can't remember what that number was.
430
00:10:22.159 --> 00:10:22.520
Um,
431
00:10:22.640 --> 00:10:23.979
so you're going back that far,
432
00:10:24.440 --> 00:10:27.469
you do see these types of outcomes in the generic ballot,
433
00:10:27.599 --> 00:10:28.940
if those polls are accurate,
434
00:10:29.289 --> 00:10:30.460
and we're about to get into whether they,
435
00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:31.979
we should consider them to be.
436
00:10:32.780 --> 00:10:33.099
Uh,
437
00:10:33.179 --> 00:10:35.159
that this would be catastrophic levels for,
438
00:10:35.289 --> 00:10:35.770
uh,
439
00:10:35.780 --> 00:10:36.140
Republicans,
440
00:10:36.179 --> 00:10:37.099
and you'd be looking at,
441
00:10:37.179 --> 00:10:37.450
uh,
442
00:10:37.659 --> 00:10:40.080
pretty much every race that was winnable for
443
00:10:40.580 --> 00:10:41.039
Democrats
444
00:10:41.260 --> 00:10:42.299
wouldn't be won.
445
00:10:42.659 --> 00:10:44.530
There'd always be some exceptions on either side of that,
446
00:10:44.590 --> 00:10:45.250
but generally speaking,
447
00:10:45.320 --> 00:10:46.039
that's what we'd be looking for.
448
00:10:46.140 --> 00:10:46.880
So right now.
449
00:10:47.840 --> 00:10:48.719
This is
450
00:10:49.080 --> 00:10:50.640
the tone of most polling.
451
00:10:51.859 --> 00:10:53.150
Most polling will tell you,
452
00:10:53.539 --> 00:10:54.719
Democrats have a massive lead,
453
00:10:54.760 --> 00:10:55.729
and this is going to look very,
454
00:10:55.820 --> 00:10:56.960
very bad for Republicans.
455
00:10:57.140 --> 00:10:58.679
So what we're looking at right now
456
00:10:59.020 --> 00:11:00.070
is one of two things,
457
00:11:00.419 --> 00:11:01.020
either
458
00:11:01.280 --> 00:11:01.979
a very,
459
00:11:02.140 --> 00:11:03.960
very bad Republican year,
460
00:11:04.419 --> 00:11:04.719
or
461
00:11:05.140 --> 00:11:05.539
a very,
462
00:11:05.619 --> 00:11:07.539
very bad polling error
463
00:11:07.820 --> 00:11:10.119
that we're looking at over a lot of pollsters
464
00:11:10.219 --> 00:11:11.020
at the same time.
465
00:11:12.229 --> 00:11:15.429
I bring this to your attention before we set up what we're about to go through,
466
00:11:15.510 --> 00:11:16.030
which is,
467
00:11:16.429 --> 00:11:18.059
should we be looking at a polling error?
468
00:11:18.150 --> 00:11:19.020
What does that actually look like?
469
00:11:19.190 --> 00:11:21.250
I know it feels like every polls wrong all the time.
470
00:11:21.570 --> 00:11:22.750
What are the actual stats about it?
471
00:11:22.830 --> 00:11:23.489
What's the history,
472
00:11:23.830 --> 00:11:24.780
and how does all this work?
473
00:11:24.830 --> 00:11:26.369
What does it mean if there is a polling error?
474
00:11:26.400 --> 00:11:27.489
So I wanna go through that in a second.
475
00:11:27.869 --> 00:11:28.109
But I,
476
00:11:28.229 --> 00:11:30.330
I do wanna make sure we pause and say that
477
00:11:30.630 --> 00:11:31.809
it is likely
478
00:11:32.270 --> 00:11:32.580
that
479
00:11:32.750 --> 00:11:38.070
the tone of a blue lean in this election is not some media creation.
480
00:11:39.099 --> 00:11:42.159
There is a lot of data out there to show
481
00:11:42.619 --> 00:11:45.659
that what we're looking at here is a left-leaning electorate,
482
00:11:45.820 --> 00:11:47.609
an electorate that's just pissed off,
483
00:11:47.859 --> 00:11:48.020
you know,
484
00:11:48.169 --> 00:11:48.940
like they're pissed off at the,
485
00:11:48.979 --> 00:11:49.770
the way the world is,
486
00:11:49.820 --> 00:11:50.609
is right now,
487
00:11:50.820 --> 00:11:53.719
and they're probably gonna take it out at the on the party in power.
488
00:11:53.929 --> 00:11:56.280
That is what happens in every midterm
489
00:11:56.539 --> 00:11:57.140
with very,
490
00:11:57.219 --> 00:11:59.159
very few exceptions over the past century.
491
00:11:59.375 --> 00:12:01.484
So that's not something that should be unexpected.
492
00:12:01.664 --> 00:12:03.734
It should be something that you should be expecting.
493
00:12:03.775 --> 00:12:05.854
It's what I've expected coming into this election
494
00:12:05.854 --> 00:12:07.344
and warned you about a bunch of times.
495
00:12:07.575 --> 00:12:10.015
It's why I was in on the Democratic House
496
00:12:10.255 --> 00:12:12.715
a million years ago and it was in the 60s
497
00:12:12.934 --> 00:12:16.155
when we were talking about it going back to before the show even started.
498
00:12:17.090 --> 00:12:17.750
So that's
499
00:12:18.530 --> 00:12:20.130
the historic basis for all of this.
500
00:12:20.940 --> 00:12:22.080
The question though,
501
00:12:22.369 --> 00:12:25.559
is that what happens if there is a polling error.
502
00:12:26.099 --> 00:12:28.400
This has happened obviously many times.
503
00:12:28.809 --> 00:12:30.380
And there's a couple of them that you're gonna know about,
504
00:12:30.460 --> 00:12:32.119
obviously with Donald Trump in particular.
505
00:12:32.580 --> 00:12:34.679
But I wanna bring you back to take a wider look
506
00:12:35.010 --> 00:12:38.739
at polling and the errors that we've seen in polling over the years,
507
00:12:38.940 --> 00:12:40.299
especially as they apply to midterms.
508
00:12:40.400 --> 00:12:43.039
So let's go back to that first terrible year that I told you about
509
00:12:43.340 --> 00:12:44.719
in 2006.
510
00:12:44.900 --> 00:12:46.820
If you think about the context of this moment.
511
00:12:47.119 --> 00:12:47.599
You have,
512
00:12:47.640 --> 00:12:48.489
uh,
513
00:12:48.679 --> 00:12:49.739
Bush gets elected,
514
00:12:50.000 --> 00:12:51.219
9/11 happens,
515
00:12:51.479 --> 00:12:52.700
Afghanistan happens,
516
00:12:53.130 --> 00:12:54.130
Iraq happens,
517
00:12:54.390 --> 00:12:56.619
Bush is re-elected in 2004,
518
00:12:56.919 --> 00:12:58.900
and then we fast forward to 2006,
519
00:12:58.909 --> 00:13:00.659
and the war isn't going well.
520
00:13:01.119 --> 00:13:01.280
Uh,
521
00:13:01.359 --> 00:13:02.840
Bush is very unpopular,
522
00:13:02.919 --> 00:13:03.489
we just mentioned,
523
00:13:03.500 --> 00:13:05.020
37% approval rating.
524
00:13:05.650 --> 00:13:09.099
And they go into that midterm and get smoked in that midterm.
525
00:13:09.340 --> 00:13:10.489
The polling in that midterm,
526
00:13:10.570 --> 00:13:11.039
however,
527
00:13:11.380 --> 00:13:12.179
relatively accurate.
528
00:13:12.219 --> 00:13:12.380
In fact,
529
00:13:12.500 --> 00:13:13.840
one of the most accurate years
530
00:13:14.140 --> 00:13:14.820
we've ever had.
531
00:13:14.940 --> 00:13:15.739
2006,
532
00:13:15.849 --> 00:13:16.289
there was a,
533
00:13:16.299 --> 00:13:16.580
uh,
534
00:13:16.650 --> 00:13:16.890
uh,
535
00:13:16.900 --> 00:13:17.919
a polling error
536
00:13:18.299 --> 00:13:18.729
that,
537
00:13:19.020 --> 00:13:19.250
uh,
538
00:13:19.260 --> 00:13:22.909
favored Republicans only by 0.1% points.
539
00:13:23.059 --> 00:13:23.359
So,
540
00:13:23.590 --> 00:13:24.299
almost perfect.
541
00:13:24.390 --> 00:13:24.530
Now,
542
00:13:24.539 --> 00:13:25.479
when we talk about
543
00:13:25.760 --> 00:13:26.260
almost perfect,
544
00:13:26.299 --> 00:13:28.419
that doesn't mean there weren't misses in that cycle.
545
00:13:28.809 --> 00:13:32.380
But this is the most accurate cycle according to Nate Silver's silver bulletin,
546
00:13:32.580 --> 00:13:35.239
going back to 1998.
547
00:13:35.460 --> 00:13:38.059
What we're talking about here is a combined polling error.
548
00:13:38.140 --> 00:13:40.559
So we're averaging all the polling error out,
549
00:13:40.770 --> 00:13:41.159
um,
550
00:13:41.179 --> 00:13:42.559
across different categories.
551
00:13:42.809 --> 00:13:46.400
This doesn't mean there weren't misses in individual polls in that year.
552
00:13:46.619 --> 00:13:48.580
It's just that the overall picture was very,
553
00:13:48.659 --> 00:13:50.450
very accurate in 2006.
554
00:13:50.690 --> 00:13:51.409
2008,
555
00:13:51.539 --> 00:13:53.539
Barack Obama runs for president.
556
00:13:54.030 --> 00:13:54.440
Um,
557
00:13:54.520 --> 00:13:54.840
and,
558
00:13:54.919 --> 00:13:55.159
uh,
559
00:13:55.440 --> 00:13:57.210
another great year for Democrats,
560
00:13:57.479 --> 00:13:59.250
and a very good year for polls as well,
561
00:13:59.349 --> 00:14:01.179
less than a 1% error again,
562
00:14:01.640 --> 00:14:05.979
the polls came close favoring Democrats by just 0.8% points.
563
00:14:06.369 --> 00:14:06.890
So,
564
00:14:07.049 --> 00:14:07.729
good start here,
565
00:14:07.890 --> 00:14:08.030
right?
566
00:14:08.130 --> 00:14:08.950
Good start here
567
00:14:09.169 --> 00:14:11.679
as we go through the first couple of elections we're covering here.
568
00:14:11.890 --> 00:14:13.530
2010 happens.
569
00:14:13.770 --> 00:14:13.969
Now,
570
00:14:14.010 --> 00:14:14.640
over this time,
571
00:14:14.650 --> 00:14:15.669
we're seeing big
572
00:14:17.010 --> 00:14:18.400
changes in technology and,
573
00:14:18.530 --> 00:14:20.349
and polling's getting more and more difficult.
574
00:14:20.489 --> 00:14:22.400
Fewer people are responding to polls.
575
00:14:22.690 --> 00:14:25.150
There's a reason why these polls were more accurate
576
00:14:25.369 --> 00:14:27.210
back then than they feel right now.
577
00:14:27.619 --> 00:14:28.059
Um,
578
00:14:28.299 --> 00:14:28.739
so again,
579
00:14:28.820 --> 00:14:29.500
2010,
580
00:14:29.580 --> 00:14:31.330
the biggest wave election in a century,
581
00:14:31.500 --> 00:14:32.500
the Tea Party wave,
582
00:14:32.539 --> 00:14:33.780
as you might remember it,
583
00:14:33.969 --> 00:14:34.130
uh,
584
00:14:34.260 --> 00:14:35.760
goes massively in favor
585
00:14:35.900 --> 00:14:37.099
of Republicans.
586
00:14:37.210 --> 00:14:37.969
One of the reasons for that,
587
00:14:38.020 --> 00:14:38.479
by the way.
588
00:14:38.989 --> 00:14:39.260
Um,
589
00:14:39.309 --> 00:14:41.669
the reason why the numbers were so big is because you
590
00:14:41.669 --> 00:14:43.669
just had two big wins in a row for Democrats.
591
00:14:43.789 --> 00:14:45.349
So they have big majorities going into this.
592
00:14:45.789 --> 00:14:47.140
Republicans wipe out those majorities,
593
00:14:47.510 --> 00:14:48.349
smoke everybody,
594
00:14:48.580 --> 00:14:48.739
uh,
595
00:14:48.830 --> 00:14:49.049
in,
596
00:14:49.109 --> 00:14:49.260
uh,
597
00:14:49.309 --> 00:14:50.599
in the House and the Senate.
598
00:14:50.890 --> 00:14:51.789
But the polls again,
599
00:14:52.030 --> 00:14:52.270
very,
600
00:14:52.349 --> 00:14:53.309
very accurate that year.
601
00:14:53.669 --> 00:14:54.130
Republicans
602
00:14:54.309 --> 00:14:54.590
came,
603
00:14:54.669 --> 00:14:55.020
uh,
604
00:14:55.200 --> 00:14:55.340
were,
605
00:14:55.390 --> 00:14:59.090
were favored in the polls that time by just 0.3
606
00:14:59.229 --> 00:14:59.729
points.
607
00:15:00.190 --> 00:15:03.169
2012 is one that you may remember being a little bit different.
608
00:15:03.349 --> 00:15:04.030
2012,
609
00:15:04.179 --> 00:15:05.739
Mitt Romney runs for president.
610
00:15:05.989 --> 00:15:08.150
Barack Obama running for re-election.
611
00:15:08.460 --> 00:15:09.500
And the polls,
612
00:15:09.630 --> 00:15:11.539
as we get closer and closer to that election,
613
00:15:11.909 --> 00:15:12.630
start feeling like,
614
00:15:12.750 --> 00:15:13.369
wait a minute,
615
00:15:14.059 --> 00:15:16.030
Mitt Romney's got a chance to get rid of Barack Obama.
616
00:15:16.219 --> 00:15:17.229
Obama's not that popular,
617
00:15:17.390 --> 00:15:17.549
you know,
618
00:15:17.669 --> 00:15:17.950
right then.
619
00:15:18.030 --> 00:15:18.700
He's coming off of,
620
00:15:18.750 --> 00:15:19.059
uh,
621
00:15:19.190 --> 00:15:19.380
the,
622
00:15:19.429 --> 00:15:19.570
the,
623
00:15:19.650 --> 00:15:21.729
the healthcare.gov disaster.
624
00:15:21.909 --> 00:15:22.030
Uh,
625
00:15:22.270 --> 00:15:24.080
Obamacare really disliked.
626
00:15:24.270 --> 00:15:25.750
Romney runs that campaign,
627
00:15:26.150 --> 00:15:26.590
smokes,
628
00:15:26.679 --> 00:15:27.229
uh,
629
00:15:27.549 --> 00:15:28.750
Obama in the first debate.
630
00:15:29.229 --> 00:15:30.590
And then does terrible in the next two.
631
00:15:31.270 --> 00:15:34.150
but the outcome of the polls there were
632
00:15:34.150 --> 00:15:36.739
Republicans were actually favored in that election.
633
00:15:37.030 --> 00:15:37.140
Uh,
634
00:15:37.190 --> 00:15:40.109
the polls favored Republicans by 2.8% points,
635
00:15:40.190 --> 00:15:41.289
so that error
636
00:15:41.789 --> 00:15:42.630
went to the Republicans.
637
00:15:42.750 --> 00:15:45.530
Romney looked stronger than he actually was,
638
00:15:45.909 --> 00:15:48.799
and Obama wound up winning that election.
639
00:15:49.229 --> 00:15:50.950
We go to 2014.
640
00:15:51.190 --> 00:15:51.989
Interestingly enough,
641
00:15:52.109 --> 00:15:53.590
the exact reverse happens,
642
00:15:53.630 --> 00:15:54.549
2014.
643
00:15:54.770 --> 00:15:55.010
Uh,
644
00:15:55.080 --> 00:15:56.789
a 2.8% error
645
00:15:56.969 --> 00:15:58.130
in favor of Democrats.
646
00:15:58.450 --> 00:15:59.650
Democrats look better than they are,
647
00:15:59.719 --> 00:15:59.890
and,
648
00:16:00.010 --> 00:16:02.570
and 2014 winds up being a really good year,
649
00:16:02.770 --> 00:16:04.030
a really good midterm
650
00:16:04.369 --> 00:16:04.869
for
651
00:16:05.559 --> 00:16:06.030
Republicans,
652
00:16:06.289 --> 00:16:07.130
and the Democratic,
653
00:16:07.250 --> 00:16:09.130
the polls looked too good for Democrats.
654
00:16:09.250 --> 00:16:09.530
This isn't,
655
00:16:09.640 --> 00:16:09.729
you know,
656
00:16:09.890 --> 00:16:10.929
remember 2014 is,
657
00:16:10.989 --> 00:16:12.119
is an era where people are saying,
658
00:16:12.169 --> 00:16:12.320
oh,
659
00:16:12.359 --> 00:16:12.760
this is,
660
00:16:13.210 --> 00:16:15.719
we're not even gonna have a Republican Party anymore.
661
00:16:15.950 --> 00:16:15.960
Uh,
662
00:16:16.450 --> 00:16:17.690
Barack Obama's changed all that.
663
00:16:17.849 --> 00:16:20.599
Maybe Republicans will only be a regional party from now on,
664
00:16:20.690 --> 00:16:20.840
like,
665
00:16:20.890 --> 00:16:21.030
uh,
666
00:16:21.119 --> 00:16:21.250
you know,
667
00:16:21.409 --> 00:16:22.250
like the Whigs.
668
00:16:22.700 --> 00:16:23.059
Uh,
669
00:16:23.179 --> 00:16:23.340
like,
670
00:16:23.380 --> 00:16:23.739
uh,
671
00:16:23.820 --> 00:16:24.059
you know,
672
00:16:24.179 --> 00:16:24.299
the,
673
00:16:24.380 --> 00:16:24.700
the,
674
00:16:24.840 --> 00:16:26.739
the racist parties of back in the day,
675
00:16:26.809 --> 00:16:27.679
you know those stories.
676
00:16:28.140 --> 00:16:29.400
So that's 2014.
677
00:16:29.859 --> 00:16:31.270
Now we get into the Trump era,
678
00:16:31.700 --> 00:16:32.460
and things get,
679
00:16:32.570 --> 00:16:35.119
start getting crazier and crazier and crazier and crazier.
680
00:16:35.619 --> 00:16:35.700
Uh,
681
00:16:35.780 --> 00:16:36.979
2016.
682
00:16:37.619 --> 00:16:39.340
The second cycle in a row,
683
00:16:39.539 --> 00:16:40.460
same as 2014,
684
00:16:40.539 --> 00:16:42.239
where we get a big error
685
00:16:42.780 --> 00:16:43.979
favoring Democrats.
686
00:16:44.059 --> 00:16:47.099
The average of that was a 3 point margin,
687
00:16:47.169 --> 00:16:48.359
the biggest we've seen so far,
688
00:16:48.890 --> 00:16:52.280
a 3 point margin favoring Democrats in 2016.
689
00:16:52.380 --> 00:16:55.140
This of course leads to the massive upset at the time
690
00:16:55.299 --> 00:16:57.280
of Donald Trump taking out Hillary Clinton,
691
00:16:57.770 --> 00:16:58.049
um,
692
00:16:58.150 --> 00:16:58.500
in in a,
693
00:16:58.580 --> 00:17:00.140
in a race that I don't even know if the
694
00:17:00.140 --> 00:17:02.299
people in the campaign thought they were going to win,
695
00:17:02.380 --> 00:17:02.900
but they did.
696
00:17:03.270 --> 00:17:03.390
Uh,
697
00:17:03.469 --> 00:17:04.750
he won the race fair and square,
698
00:17:05.030 --> 00:17:07.368
became the president of the United States.
699
00:17:07.790 --> 00:17:09.479
We go through a couple of years of Trump,
700
00:17:09.709 --> 00:17:10.348
uh,
701
00:17:10.550 --> 00:17:10.670
you know,
702
00:17:10.790 --> 00:17:11.709
there's bumps and bruises,
703
00:17:11.819 --> 00:17:12.270
some good things,
704
00:17:12.380 --> 00:17:13.030
some bad things,
705
00:17:13.310 --> 00:17:13.430
you know,
706
00:17:13.469 --> 00:17:15.890
it's not necessarily the most popular president in the world,
707
00:17:15.989 --> 00:17:16.550
obviously,
708
00:17:17.310 --> 00:17:19.250
you might notice he's a tad divisive.
709
00:17:19.670 --> 00:17:19.900
Um,
710
00:17:19.989 --> 00:17:20.310
and,
711
00:17:20.339 --> 00:17:21.300
uh,
712
00:17:21.550 --> 00:17:21.709
he,
713
00:17:21.819 --> 00:17:23.770
we have a 2018,
714
00:17:24.310 --> 00:17:24.848
um,
715
00:17:25.150 --> 00:17:25.858
uh,
716
00:17:26.030 --> 00:17:26.569
midterm.
717
00:17:26.670 --> 00:17:26.890
That
718
00:17:27.060 --> 00:17:28.709
midterm does not go well for Republicans.
719
00:17:29.209 --> 00:17:29.339
Um,
720
00:17:29.400 --> 00:17:29.619
in fact,
721
00:17:29.699 --> 00:17:29.900
they,
722
00:17:29.969 --> 00:17:30.180
uh,
723
00:17:30.260 --> 00:17:32.239
they get kind of smoked in that election.
724
00:17:32.260 --> 00:17:32.459
Again,
725
00:17:32.540 --> 00:17:33.739
that's about an 8 point,
726
00:17:33.819 --> 00:17:34.489
it was an 8 point,
727
00:17:34.500 --> 00:17:35.079
I believe,
728
00:17:35.250 --> 00:17:37.180
margin of a generic ballot vote,
729
00:17:37.369 --> 00:17:40.520
but the polls again were very good in that 2018
730
00:17:40.800 --> 00:17:40.849
election.
731
00:17:40.890 --> 00:17:41.060
In fact,
732
00:17:41.150 --> 00:17:41.290
the,
733
00:17:41.380 --> 00:17:41.579
uh,
734
00:17:41.660 --> 00:17:43.599
polls came close favoring Republicans
735
00:17:43.739 --> 00:17:45.680
by just 0.5
736
00:17:46.099 --> 00:17:46.540
points.
737
00:17:47.510 --> 00:17:49.459
0.5 points favoring Republicans,
738
00:17:49.510 --> 00:17:49.709
but again,
739
00:17:49.750 --> 00:17:49.869
I,
740
00:17:49.979 --> 00:17:52.819
I would just basically say they were good in 2018.
741
00:17:53.099 --> 00:17:54.920
The result for Republicans was very bad.
742
00:17:55.020 --> 00:17:56.010
The polls were very good.
743
00:17:56.219 --> 00:17:56.900
2020,
744
00:17:57.030 --> 00:17:58.010
Donald Trump runs again.
745
00:17:58.359 --> 00:17:59.810
This is something that people don't realize
746
00:18:00.270 --> 00:18:03.660
because Donald Trump won in 2020 2016 and 2024.
747
00:18:03.869 --> 00:18:04.739
In 2020,
748
00:18:04.939 --> 00:18:08.790
the polls had the biggest miss of any of these presidential races with Donald Trump,
749
00:18:08.869 --> 00:18:10.650
a 4.7 point miss
750
00:18:10.790 --> 00:18:11.060
for,
751
00:18:11.069 --> 00:18:11.489
uh,
752
00:18:11.550 --> 00:18:11.709
Democrats.
753
00:18:11.770 --> 00:18:13.829
The polls favored Democrats by 4.7 points.
754
00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:15.430
This is the largest polling miss.
755
00:18:15.800 --> 00:18:15.939
Uh,
756
00:18:16.010 --> 00:18:16.560
in the,
757
00:18:16.569 --> 00:18:17.040
uh,
758
00:18:17.050 --> 00:18:19.939
silver bulletin archive going back to 1998.
759
00:18:20.359 --> 00:18:20.520
Uh,
760
00:18:20.680 --> 00:18:21.160
this is,
761
00:18:21.449 --> 00:18:21.760
you know,
762
00:18:22.119 --> 00:18:22.619
because
763
00:18:22.800 --> 00:18:24.300
basically what happened in that one was
764
00:18:24.800 --> 00:18:28.359
Biden was favored by like 8 points and he only won by 3 or something like that.
765
00:18:28.400 --> 00:18:29.239
I can't remember the exact,
766
00:18:29.319 --> 00:18:29.780
uh,
767
00:18:30.449 --> 00:18:30.599
remember,
768
00:18:30.640 --> 00:18:32.400
it might have been a little bit smaller than that actually,
769
00:18:32.680 --> 00:18:32.750
uh,
770
00:18:32.760 --> 00:18:33.319
the final count,
771
00:18:33.420 --> 00:18:33.660
but,
772
00:18:33.880 --> 00:18:34.040
uh,
773
00:18:34.349 --> 00:18:37.300
that was a big miss and you saw big misses around,
774
00:18:37.329 --> 00:18:37.709
uh,
775
00:18:37.800 --> 00:18:38.189
the,
776
00:18:38.280 --> 00:18:38.550
uh,
777
00:18:38.640 --> 00:18:39.180
the nation.
778
00:18:39.329 --> 00:18:39.640
In fact,
779
00:18:39.689 --> 00:18:42.920
you go back and this is the one Susan Collins was a huge underdog,
780
00:18:42.959 --> 00:18:43.599
wound up winning.
781
00:18:43.839 --> 00:18:46.000
There's these big individual polling races,
782
00:18:46.239 --> 00:18:46.760
race misses,
783
00:18:46.829 --> 00:18:47.060
but
784
00:18:47.199 --> 00:18:47.630
overall,
785
00:18:47.640 --> 00:18:48.400
the average was.
786
00:18:48.839 --> 00:18:49.079
Big.
787
00:18:49.180 --> 00:18:52.000
It was a big miss for polls in 2020.
788
00:18:52.319 --> 00:18:52.510
Now,
789
00:18:52.599 --> 00:18:53.930
each time this happens,
790
00:18:54.079 --> 00:18:56.339
they're trying to correct for these errors.
791
00:18:56.599 --> 00:18:59.000
And you'd think after they missed in 2016,
792
00:18:59.119 --> 00:19:02.599
there was talk about how well we didn't correctly adjust for education levels,
793
00:19:02.680 --> 00:19:02.920
we didn't,
794
00:19:02.959 --> 00:19:03.069
you know,
795
00:19:03.079 --> 00:19:03.270
blah,
796
00:19:03.280 --> 00:19:03.479
blah,
797
00:19:03.489 --> 00:19:03.839
blah blah,
798
00:19:03.920 --> 00:19:04.719
we missed a lot of the,
799
00:19:04.729 --> 00:19:04.739
the,
800
00:19:04.839 --> 00:19:06.099
the shy Trump voters.
801
00:19:06.280 --> 00:19:06.479
OK,
802
00:19:06.579 --> 00:19:07.319
2020 happens,
803
00:19:07.380 --> 00:19:07.520
OK,
804
00:19:07.630 --> 00:19:08.280
we'll do much better.
805
00:19:08.439 --> 00:19:09.380
They actually do worse.
806
00:19:09.880 --> 00:19:12.339
They actually do worse in 2020 than they did in 2016.
807
00:19:13.099 --> 00:19:14.260
2022 happens,
808
00:19:14.339 --> 00:19:14.979
a midterm.
809
00:19:15.180 --> 00:19:16.739
This is Biden's first midterm.
810
00:19:17.099 --> 00:19:19.219
Polling showing Republicans with a slight lead,
811
00:19:19.250 --> 00:19:20.099
but not overwhelming.
812
00:19:20.219 --> 00:19:21.760
There's rumors of a red wave.
813
00:19:22.099 --> 00:19:23.410
The polls do very well.
814
00:19:23.500 --> 00:19:23.699
Again,
815
00:19:23.819 --> 00:19:25.099
they only missed by less than a point,
816
00:19:25.199 --> 00:19:26.099
0.8 points.
817
00:19:26.380 --> 00:19:26.459
Uh,
818
00:19:26.540 --> 00:19:27.819
they favored Democrats,
819
00:19:28.010 --> 00:19:28.140
uh,
820
00:19:28.250 --> 00:19:30.020
in that by just 0.8 points.
821
00:19:30.569 --> 00:19:33.170
Donald Trump runs again in 2024.
822
00:19:33.579 --> 00:19:34.329
Once again,
823
00:19:34.410 --> 00:19:34.810
you think,
824
00:19:34.979 --> 00:19:35.089
well,
825
00:19:35.170 --> 00:19:36.650
these guys will correct this this time,
826
00:19:37.119 --> 00:19:37.130
right?
827
00:19:37.140 --> 00:19:38.280
They do better than 2020,
828
00:19:38.329 --> 00:19:39.089
I'll give them credit for that.
829
00:19:39.170 --> 00:19:39.880
But again,
830
00:19:40.260 --> 00:19:41.290
another polling error,
831
00:19:41.569 --> 00:19:45.250
another polling error that favors Democrats this time by 2.9 points,
832
00:19:45.290 --> 00:19:46.069
which brings us,
833
00:19:46.250 --> 00:19:46.400
uh,
834
00:19:46.410 --> 00:19:46.849
to today.
835
00:19:46.939 --> 00:19:47.229
So.
836
00:19:47.839 --> 00:19:48.719
Let me show you the history.
837
00:19:48.810 --> 00:19:49.949
This is all the polls,
838
00:19:50.000 --> 00:19:50.170
uh,
839
00:19:50.290 --> 00:19:53.339
from 2000 all the way up to today,
840
00:19:53.609 --> 00:19:55.400
and the range of polling errors.
841
00:19:55.489 --> 00:19:56.689
This is what we're looking at.
842
00:19:56.770 --> 00:19:57.020
Now,
843
00:19:57.569 --> 00:19:59.650
you could in theory have a bigger polling error than either of those,
844
00:19:59.729 --> 00:19:59.959
but,
845
00:20:00.209 --> 00:20:00.449
you know,
846
00:20:00.530 --> 00:20:01.760
to expect that is to,
847
00:20:01.810 --> 00:20:02.199
uh,
848
00:20:02.209 --> 00:20:03.589
to expect something we haven't seen
849
00:20:04.010 --> 00:20:05.109
in 25 years.
850
00:20:05.449 --> 00:20:07.500
Here's what we have seen in 25 years.
851
00:20:07.729 --> 00:20:07.839
Uh,
852
00:20:07.910 --> 00:20:10.109
a 7.5 point spread
853
00:20:10.430 --> 00:20:11.170
between polling errors.
854
00:20:11.209 --> 00:20:15.569
The biggest polling error favoring Democrats was a 4.7 point miss in 2020.
855
00:20:15.790 --> 00:20:20.520
And a 2.8% miss in 2012 was the largest facing Republicans.
856
00:20:20.829 --> 00:20:24.729
So that is kind of what you might expect as a potential
857
00:20:25.010 --> 00:20:25.719
swing here.
858
00:20:25.869 --> 00:20:27.859
A 4.7 points being the high end,
859
00:20:28.150 --> 00:20:29.489
and a 2.8 points
860
00:20:29.630 --> 00:20:32.069
for the Republicans on that high end.
861
00:20:33.109 --> 00:20:33.510
Now,
862
00:20:33.910 --> 00:20:35.349
when you look back at all this data,
863
00:20:35.469 --> 00:20:36.449
what is it telling us?
864
00:20:37.030 --> 00:20:38.150
What's the story here?
865
00:20:40.189 --> 00:20:41.469
The story is that
866
00:20:41.790 --> 00:20:42.650
typically,
867
00:20:43.119 --> 00:20:44.609
more often than not,
868
00:20:45.109 --> 00:20:47.130
polling errors do exist.
869
00:20:47.869 --> 00:20:49.849
And they're significant,
870
00:20:50.260 --> 00:20:51.750
and they favor Democrats.
871
00:20:51.829 --> 00:20:54.030
That's not something you're imagining
872
00:20:54.229 --> 00:20:55.449
if that's the way you feel.
873
00:20:55.869 --> 00:20:58.469
Here's the actual data going back to 2000.
874
00:20:58.819 --> 00:21:00.729
46% of these,
875
00:21:01.069 --> 00:21:01.390
um,
876
00:21:01.430 --> 00:21:02.530
polling errors
877
00:21:02.869 --> 00:21:04.099
favored Democrats,
878
00:21:04.150 --> 00:21:07.089
only 15% favored Republicans.
879
00:21:07.520 --> 00:21:09.170
About 39%
880
00:21:09.589 --> 00:21:10.569
were about right.
881
00:21:10.790 --> 00:21:11.869
So in 13 cycles,
882
00:21:11.949 --> 00:21:13.109
6 of them favored Democrats,
883
00:21:13.229 --> 00:21:14.260
5 of them were about right,
884
00:21:14.300 --> 00:21:16.790
and only 2 of them favored Republicans.
885
00:21:17.260 --> 00:21:18.160
You see that split.
886
00:21:18.349 --> 00:21:18.510
Now,
887
00:21:18.599 --> 00:21:19.770
that includes
888
00:21:20.030 --> 00:21:21.050
presidential years.
889
00:21:21.150 --> 00:21:24.030
When you take out the presidential years and only look at the midterms,
890
00:21:24.199 --> 00:21:25.349
this is what the numbers look like,
891
00:21:25.390 --> 00:21:26.170
and they're gonna be,
892
00:21:26.510 --> 00:21:26.709
uh,
893
00:21:26.829 --> 00:21:26.989
you know,
894
00:21:27.069 --> 00:21:28.369
maybe shocking to some people.
895
00:21:28.829 --> 00:21:30.949
33% favored Democrats,
896
00:21:31.270 --> 00:21:33.449
67% were about right,
897
00:21:33.949 --> 00:21:35.160
0%
898
00:21:35.270 --> 00:21:36.109
favored Republicans.
899
00:21:36.310 --> 00:21:36.750
So we have,
900
00:21:37.030 --> 00:21:39.689
since 2000 have had not had one significant
901
00:21:39.689 --> 00:21:42.550
polling miss that favored Republicans in the midterms.
902
00:21:42.709 --> 00:21:43.589
That's important to note.
903
00:21:44.130 --> 00:21:45.800
The other important note here is,
904
00:21:45.810 --> 00:21:47.329
most of the time in midterms,
905
00:21:47.609 --> 00:21:48.849
the polls have been good.
906
00:21:52.750 --> 00:21:55.869
The idea that this is a polling this favoring Republicans,
907
00:21:56.229 --> 00:21:57.420
very unlikely.
908
00:21:57.709 --> 00:21:58.739
It's a small sample size,
909
00:21:58.790 --> 00:21:59.060
but it's,
910
00:21:59.099 --> 00:22:01.189
it's unlikely as we can come up with in the data.
911
00:22:02.030 --> 00:22:02.469
However,
912
00:22:02.550 --> 00:22:05.869
the most likely outcome in a midterm election over this,
913
00:22:05.949 --> 00:22:07.150
over this time period
914
00:22:07.349 --> 00:22:08.369
has been
915
00:22:08.989 --> 00:22:09.469
that
916
00:22:09.790 --> 00:22:11.189
the polls are just pretty good.
917
00:22:12.630 --> 00:22:13.229
So
918
00:22:14.489 --> 00:22:17.030
Looking at this and seeing what these polls mean,
919
00:22:17.239 --> 00:22:18.800
where do we stand right now?
920
00:22:19.000 --> 00:22:19.400
I think it's,
921
00:22:19.479 --> 00:22:19.640
you know,
922
00:22:19.800 --> 00:22:20.479
we're going through that,
923
00:22:20.560 --> 00:22:20.869
uh,
924
00:22:21.000 --> 00:22:21.079
that,
925
00:22:21.160 --> 00:22:22.780
that archive from the silver bulletin.
926
00:22:23.000 --> 00:22:24.650
Let's look at their generic ballot code.
927
00:22:24.800 --> 00:22:27.420
So you had a couple of polls that had it at 11 points earlier,
928
00:22:27.589 --> 00:22:29.079
but what's the actual average here?
929
00:22:29.160 --> 00:22:30.380
The average right now
930
00:22:30.640 --> 00:22:32.800
is about 9.2 points.
931
00:22:33.545 --> 00:22:34.915
Democrats at 50.5%,
932
00:22:35.464 --> 00:22:37.864
Republicans at 41.3%,
933
00:22:37.984 --> 00:22:40.334
really on the fringes of the margins of error,
934
00:22:40.344 --> 00:22:41.125
you can see
935
00:22:41.344 --> 00:22:42.324
in this particular
936
00:22:42.505 --> 00:22:43.244
graphic.
937
00:22:43.464 --> 00:22:45.135
50.5 to 41.3%,
938
00:22:45.224 --> 00:22:50.405
so a 9.2% advantage for
939
00:22:51.064 --> 00:22:51.604
Democrats.
940
00:22:52.224 --> 00:22:53.444
How would that work
941
00:22:53.584 --> 00:22:54.505
with a polling error?
942
00:22:55.290 --> 00:22:56.849
This is how important this stuff is.
943
00:22:57.140 --> 00:22:58.479
Cause the polling error here
944
00:22:58.650 --> 00:22:59.859
can be the entire game,
945
00:23:00.060 --> 00:23:01.439
can be the entire ball game
946
00:23:01.609 --> 00:23:02.680
when it comes to control.
947
00:23:02.780 --> 00:23:03.180
OK.
948
00:23:03.380 --> 00:23:03.780
This is,
949
00:23:03.849 --> 00:23:04.489
uh,
950
00:23:04.500 --> 00:23:04.780
the,
951
00:23:04.939 --> 00:23:05.280
what
952
00:23:05.459 --> 00:23:07.300
the likely outcome would be
953
00:23:07.540 --> 00:23:08.599
if we have,
954
00:23:08.660 --> 00:23:08.969
um,
955
00:23:09.099 --> 00:23:11.369
a generic ballot falling in different ranges.
956
00:23:11.540 --> 00:23:11.839
So,
957
00:23:11.979 --> 00:23:13.119
if you look at this chart,
958
00:23:13.540 --> 00:23:14.780
between 9 and 10 points,
959
00:23:14.819 --> 00:23:15.910
which is where we are.
960
00:23:16.420 --> 00:23:17.869
The Democrats have a,
961
00:23:18.030 --> 00:23:20.189
if that is the real number in real life,
962
00:23:20.469 --> 00:23:21.430
when it comes to Senate seats,
963
00:23:21.510 --> 00:23:24.530
the Democrats have a 98% chance of winning the Senate.
964
00:23:24.790 --> 00:23:25.819
So if this polling is right,
965
00:23:25.910 --> 00:23:27.150
there's no polling error,
966
00:23:27.469 --> 00:23:29.650
the Democrats have a 98% chance
967
00:23:29.949 --> 00:23:31.689
of winning the Senate according to this data.
968
00:23:32.030 --> 00:23:34.589
They would average about 54 seats.
969
00:23:34.829 --> 00:23:35.969
So you are talking.
970
00:23:37.180 --> 00:23:38.900
Blue wave territory for sure.
971
00:23:38.979 --> 00:23:40.680
Does this count as blue tsunami?
972
00:23:40.890 --> 00:23:41.000
I mean,
973
00:23:41.060 --> 00:23:42.420
it's basically 2018.
974
00:23:43.189 --> 00:23:44.119
So you would say it,
975
00:23:44.140 --> 00:23:46.790
it is a very bad outcome for Republicans.
976
00:23:47.699 --> 00:23:50.060
Maybe not blue tsunami territory and maybe not
977
00:23:50.060 --> 00:23:51.920
the most catastrophic outcome we've ever seen,
978
00:23:52.020 --> 00:23:52.510
but very bad.
979
00:23:52.619 --> 00:23:53.979
Maybe not as bad as 2006.
980
00:23:54.810 --> 00:23:56.449
If you happen to have a rep uh,
981
00:23:56.489 --> 00:23:57.010
uh,
982
00:23:57.020 --> 00:23:57.319
uh,
983
00:23:57.329 --> 00:23:59.609
a polling error that favors Republicans,
984
00:23:59.689 --> 00:23:59.969
so
985
00:24:00.250 --> 00:24:02.069
the polls are better for Republicans
986
00:24:02.369 --> 00:24:03.430
than they wind up being.
987
00:24:04.050 --> 00:24:05.310
And we see movement.
988
00:24:05.449 --> 00:24:07.050
The biggest way that could go is,
989
00:24:07.170 --> 00:24:08.079
uh,
990
00:24:08.130 --> 00:24:10.069
through history would be a 2.8%
991
00:24:10.239 --> 00:24:12.069
polling error that would bring that up to
992
00:24:12.369 --> 00:24:13.829
about 12 points,
993
00:24:14.290 --> 00:24:17.390
about where those first couple of polls were that we talked about today.
994
00:24:17.689 --> 00:24:18.849
If that does happen,
995
00:24:19.089 --> 00:24:21.130
you're looking at a basically 100% chance,
996
00:24:21.250 --> 00:24:21.969
bring up that last graphic,
997
00:24:22.050 --> 00:24:23.150
100% chance.
998
00:24:23.560 --> 00:24:23.910
Um,
999
00:24:23.959 --> 00:24:24.140
uh,
1000
00:24:24.280 --> 00:24:26.260
for the Republicans to lose the Senate
1001
00:24:26.439 --> 00:24:28.079
and about 55 seats,
1002
00:24:28.280 --> 00:24:28.560
which is,
1003
00:24:28.640 --> 00:24:28.760
you know,
1004
00:24:28.839 --> 00:24:29.199
55,
1005
00:24:29.280 --> 00:24:30.959
56 is basically the maximum
1006
00:24:31.160 --> 00:24:31.979
you can see,
1007
00:24:32.219 --> 00:24:32.359
uh,
1008
00:24:32.439 --> 00:24:33.459
with any realistic,
1009
00:24:33.650 --> 00:24:34.119
um,
1010
00:24:34.199 --> 00:24:35.060
possibility.
1011
00:24:35.319 --> 00:24:35.520
Uh,
1012
00:24:35.680 --> 00:24:35.910
now,
1013
00:24:36.180 --> 00:24:36.280
again,
1014
00:24:36.349 --> 00:24:38.300
we haven't seen any midterm polling
1015
00:24:38.640 --> 00:24:39.760
misses toward Republicans,
1016
00:24:39.849 --> 00:24:40.199
so
1017
00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:41.109
this is unlikely,
1018
00:24:41.160 --> 00:24:43.079
but this is the ranges of outcomes.
1019
00:24:43.829 --> 00:24:45.150
If you go down the other way though,
1020
00:24:45.229 --> 00:24:46.469
this is the one that everyone's talking about.
1021
00:24:46.510 --> 00:24:47.829
This is what you're probably thinking right now.
1022
00:24:47.910 --> 00:24:48.439
Wait a minute.
1023
00:24:48.670 --> 00:24:50.250
What about if Democrats
1024
00:24:50.390 --> 00:24:50.890
are the,
1025
00:24:51.069 --> 00:24:51.310
uh,
1026
00:24:51.390 --> 00:24:51.849
the
1027
00:24:52.069 --> 00:24:53.089
beneficiary
1028
00:24:53.229 --> 00:24:55.010
of a polling error?
1029
00:24:55.430 --> 00:24:57.750
The average polling error or maybe the maximum.
1030
00:24:57.790 --> 00:24:58.869
Let's do the maximum.
1031
00:24:59.310 --> 00:25:00.739
If we get the polling error,
1032
00:25:00.949 --> 00:25:01.910
the biggest one that we've seen,
1033
00:25:01.949 --> 00:25:03.449
that was the 2020 election,
1034
00:25:04.069 --> 00:25:06.109
a 4.7 point polling miss,
1035
00:25:06.349 --> 00:25:09.949
that would bring the Republicans from this Democrat 9 to 10.
1036
00:25:10.359 --> 00:25:12.910
To the Democrat plus 4 to 5 area.
1037
00:25:13.089 --> 00:25:14.449
If they get into that area,
1038
00:25:14.609 --> 00:25:16.030
around 4.5 points,
1039
00:25:16.489 --> 00:25:18.579
the Republicans are now favored
1040
00:25:18.729 --> 00:25:19.290
in the Senate.
1041
00:25:20.000 --> 00:25:21.189
2 to 1 favorites in the Senate,
1042
00:25:21.229 --> 00:25:22.079
a 60,
1043
00:25:22.270 --> 00:25:22.510
what is it?
1044
00:25:22.550 --> 00:25:22.989
61,
1045
00:25:23.050 --> 00:25:23.989
62%.
1046
00:25:24.479 --> 00:25:24.790
Uh,
1047
00:25:24.959 --> 00:25:26.020
favorite in the Senate.
1048
00:25:26.439 --> 00:25:29.380
Likely that we're looking at there a 50/50 Senate,
1049
00:25:29.560 --> 00:25:30.300
where you have,
1050
00:25:30.359 --> 00:25:30.790
uh,
1051
00:25:30.800 --> 00:25:32.599
JD Vance breaking that tie.
1052
00:25:32.880 --> 00:25:34.119
So if you look at it this way,
1053
00:25:34.439 --> 00:25:35.869
best case scenario,
1054
00:25:36.119 --> 00:25:38.380
the Republicans are the favorite in the Senate.
1055
00:25:38.719 --> 00:25:41.420
They hold the Senate with 50 or 51 seats,
1056
00:25:41.670 --> 00:25:41.959
um,
1057
00:25:42.119 --> 00:25:44.119
and that's if the polls are in that,
1058
00:25:44.239 --> 00:25:45.420
in that sort of error
1059
00:25:45.560 --> 00:25:46.319
that favors,
1060
00:25:46.439 --> 00:25:46.550
uh,
1061
00:25:46.630 --> 00:25:49.020
that has been favoring Democrats through the polling season,
1062
00:25:49.319 --> 00:25:51.160
and we see better results for Republicans.
1063
00:25:51.359 --> 00:25:52.280
If you go the opposite way,
1064
00:25:52.400 --> 00:25:54.079
obviously it gets massively catastrophic.
1065
00:25:54.479 --> 00:25:55.520
So the question is,
1066
00:25:55.640 --> 00:25:55.800
you know,
1067
00:25:55.920 --> 00:25:56.430
does the poll,
1068
00:25:56.599 --> 00:25:57.680
should we be sitting here to,
1069
00:25:57.800 --> 00:25:58.219
you know,
1070
00:25:58.479 --> 00:25:58.630
like,
1071
00:25:58.719 --> 00:25:59.079
oh gosh,
1072
00:25:59.150 --> 00:26:00.280
the polling error will save us.
1073
00:26:01.810 --> 00:26:01.959
I mean,
1074
00:26:02.010 --> 00:26:02.369
the question,
1075
00:26:02.449 --> 00:26:02.969
the answer to that is,
1076
00:26:03.050 --> 00:26:03.239
is a,
1077
00:26:03.319 --> 00:26:04.469
is a big fat maybe.
1078
00:26:05.250 --> 00:26:05.449
You know,
1079
00:26:05.530 --> 00:26:10.530
there's about 1 out of 3 chance that the polling error is telling
1080
00:26:10.530 --> 00:26:13.030
you the Democrats are going to do better than they actually are.
1081
00:26:13.900 --> 00:26:14.839
In midterms.
1082
00:26:15.020 --> 00:26:16.540
If you look at the data from,
1083
00:26:16.579 --> 00:26:16.869
uh,
1084
00:26:17.020 --> 00:26:17.979
from all elections,
1085
00:26:18.060 --> 00:26:19.300
that number's a little bit higher.
1086
00:26:19.380 --> 00:26:20.819
It's about 1 in 2.
1087
00:26:21.869 --> 00:26:24.510
So somewhere between 1 and 2 and 1 and 3 chance
1088
00:26:24.680 --> 00:26:26.199
that a polling error will make
1089
00:26:26.670 --> 00:26:27.060
the,
1090
00:26:27.069 --> 00:26:27.540
uh,
1091
00:26:27.550 --> 00:26:31.510
the situation improve for Republicans from the data that you're seeing here.
1092
00:26:31.750 --> 00:26:33.290
If that does happen,
1093
00:26:33.550 --> 00:26:35.380
you're looking at a much better chance,
1094
00:26:35.540 --> 00:26:35.790
in fact,
1095
00:26:35.869 --> 00:26:38.410
all the way up to maybe Republicans are 2 to 1 favorites
1096
00:26:38.589 --> 00:26:39.270
in the Senate.
1097
00:26:39.989 --> 00:26:41.209
Massive range there,
1098
00:26:41.469 --> 00:26:45.750
but we should see and should understand what we're looking at and what we are coming,
1099
00:26:45.949 --> 00:26:47.229
the point that we're coming from.
1100
00:26:47.640 --> 00:26:48.439
Which is a point of,
1101
00:26:48.520 --> 00:26:48.680
look,
1102
00:26:49.000 --> 00:26:50.099
Democrats are favorite here.
1103
00:26:50.199 --> 00:26:52.099
They are heavy favorites to win in the House.
1104
00:26:52.479 --> 00:26:53.989
They are favorites to win in the Senate.
1105
00:26:54.199 --> 00:26:56.219
They are favorites in a lot of these close races.
1106
00:26:56.439 --> 00:26:57.579
That does not mean
1107
00:26:58.239 --> 00:26:59.400
that the die is cast.
1108
00:26:59.959 --> 00:27:01.069
And it does not mean if you are a
1109
00:27:01.069 --> 00:27:03.479
person who wants Republicans and conservatives to win,
1110
00:27:03.550 --> 00:27:06.140
it does not mean you should just give up and not go to the polls.
1111
00:27:06.479 --> 00:27:06.579
Uh,
1112
00:27:06.670 --> 00:27:06.920
in fact,
1113
00:27:07.040 --> 00:27:08.969
you're needed at the polls probably more than ever,
1114
00:27:09.439 --> 00:27:10.910
because if you don't go to the polls,
1115
00:27:11.189 --> 00:27:12.079
these blue wave,
1116
00:27:12.239 --> 00:27:15.479
blue tsunami situations are realistic possibilities.
1117
00:27:15.939 --> 00:27:19.170
This is not just some crazy media concoction.
1118
00:27:19.510 --> 00:27:21.880
This is a thing that could actually happen,
1119
00:27:22.140 --> 00:27:22.560
and
1120
00:27:22.780 --> 00:27:23.339
honestly,
1121
00:27:23.540 --> 00:27:26.500
some of the data indicates it's likely to happen.
1122
00:27:27.449 --> 00:27:30.130
So if you want that to not occur,
1123
00:27:30.369 --> 00:27:32.750
the things that you could be doing to help
1124
00:27:33.000 --> 00:27:35.050
in a situation like this are really,
1125
00:27:35.170 --> 00:27:36.109
really important.
1126
00:27:36.489 --> 00:27:37.310
Be active,
1127
00:27:38.130 --> 00:27:40.250
try to convince people to change their minds if that's up,
1128
00:27:40.369 --> 00:27:41.569
if that's something that you want.
1129
00:27:41.729 --> 00:27:42.729
If you're someone on the,
1130
00:27:42.810 --> 00:27:43.599
on the left and you're like,
1131
00:27:43.650 --> 00:27:44.089
I love this,
1132
00:27:44.199 --> 00:27:44.359
you know,
1133
00:27:44.449 --> 00:27:44.640
I mean,
1134
00:27:44.729 --> 00:27:45.150
look,
1135
00:27:45.489 --> 00:27:46.209
you're at a situation,
1136
00:27:46.250 --> 00:27:46.489
I,
1137
00:27:46.569 --> 00:27:46.890
you know,
1138
00:27:46.969 --> 00:27:48.209
I don't like your policies all that much,
1139
00:27:48.329 --> 00:27:48.569
so.
1140
00:27:49.400 --> 00:27:50.239
maybe you could stay home.
1141
00:27:50.319 --> 00:27:50.380
No,
1142
00:27:50.439 --> 00:27:50.750
I'm not.
1143
00:27:51.119 --> 00:27:51.910
You do what you wanna do.
1144
00:27:52.160 --> 00:27:54.390
My point here though is when it comes to the elections,
1145
00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:56.260
being active is always a good idea.
1146
00:27:56.520 --> 00:27:57.780
When it comes to prediction markets,
1147
00:27:57.839 --> 00:27:59.819
it's about guarding these positions.
1148
00:28:00.079 --> 00:28:01.560
You don't want to be in a position
1149
00:28:01.800 --> 00:28:03.489
where you blow off the polls and say,
1150
00:28:03.599 --> 00:28:03.790
well,
1151
00:28:03.880 --> 00:28:05.439
I've got a guy who's in the Republicans,
1152
00:28:05.540 --> 00:28:05.550
uh,
1153
00:28:05.849 --> 00:28:05.859
yeah,
1154
00:28:05.920 --> 00:28:06.050
it's,
1155
00:28:06.119 --> 00:28:06.680
it's Kansas,
1156
00:28:06.880 --> 00:28:08.430
what are the chances of me losing?
1157
00:28:08.839 --> 00:28:09.000
Well,
1158
00:28:09.079 --> 00:28:10.359
the chances of you losing,
1159
00:28:10.430 --> 00:28:10.859
are there,
1160
00:28:10.920 --> 00:28:11.599
they're real.
1161
00:28:12.040 --> 00:28:12.400
So,
1162
00:28:12.520 --> 00:28:12.800
if you,
1163
00:28:12.859 --> 00:28:15.000
you should shield yourself from some of those,
1164
00:28:15.520 --> 00:28:17.079
watch the size of those positions.
1165
00:28:17.119 --> 00:28:19.579
If you've been really aggressive in a state that's more,
1166
00:28:20.400 --> 00:28:21.869
making you more nervous,
1167
00:28:22.280 --> 00:28:24.099
don't just deny the new data,
1168
00:28:24.479 --> 00:28:25.189
adjust,
1169
00:28:25.520 --> 00:28:25.839
right?
1170
00:28:26.119 --> 00:28:27.560
Maybe trim some of that position.
1171
00:28:27.599 --> 00:28:30.510
I've talked to you about what I did on Monday's show,
1172
00:28:30.739 --> 00:28:32.839
trimming about 5 or 6 positions
1173
00:28:33.040 --> 00:28:34.699
that I thought were in a risky spot,
1174
00:28:34.709 --> 00:28:38.000
and taking that money and allocating it to places I feel better about.
1175
00:28:38.560 --> 00:28:38.800
Yeah,
1176
00:28:39.119 --> 00:28:39.239
sure,
1177
00:28:39.319 --> 00:28:40.989
I took a little bit of a short-term loss there.
1178
00:28:41.130 --> 00:28:43.020
I wanna make it up in another place where I can,
1179
00:28:43.199 --> 00:28:43.400
I'm,
1180
00:28:43.479 --> 00:28:44.500
I'm much more confident.
1181
00:28:45.079 --> 00:28:46.589
If you can do that and you can kinda keep your,
1182
00:28:46.680 --> 00:28:47.239
your balance,
1183
00:28:47.319 --> 00:28:47.550
uh,
1184
00:28:47.560 --> 00:28:50.439
your portfolio balanced to a place where you understand
1185
00:28:50.709 --> 00:28:52.380
that you are not just saying,
1186
00:28:52.520 --> 00:28:54.079
I know this is going to happen,
1187
00:28:54.160 --> 00:28:54.680
but you're saying,
1188
00:28:54.760 --> 00:28:56.560
I think this range is gonna happen.
1189
00:28:56.640 --> 00:28:58.660
I wanna be safe in this entire range.
1190
00:28:59.000 --> 00:29:00.199
When you think that way,
1191
00:29:00.359 --> 00:29:01.619
you're much more likely
1192
00:29:01.760 --> 00:29:02.859
to have consistent,
1193
00:29:03.199 --> 00:29:03.430
uh,
1194
00:29:03.439 --> 00:29:04.420
positive outcomes
1195
00:29:04.530 --> 00:29:05.670
when it comes to these elections.
1196
00:29:05.880 --> 00:29:06.000
Look,
1197
00:29:06.109 --> 00:29:07.800
all this stuff is up at predictableShow.com.
1198
00:29:07.880 --> 00:29:08.280
I want you to be
1199
00:29:08.425 --> 00:29:08.714
Able to see it.
1200
00:29:08.724 --> 00:29:10.214
I want you to be able to use these tools.
1201
00:29:10.444 --> 00:29:10.604
Uh,
1202
00:29:10.685 --> 00:29:12.635
the predictable mid-term consensus is up there.
1203
00:29:12.844 --> 00:29:14.555
We've got the Republican freakout Index.
1204
00:29:14.625 --> 00:29:16.704
I'll put up some of this data as well at some point here
1205
00:29:16.964 --> 00:29:17.744
in the coming days.
1206
00:29:17.885 --> 00:29:19.314
I want you to have all the tools that I have,
1207
00:29:19.405 --> 00:29:19.555
uh,
1208
00:29:19.604 --> 00:29:20.704
to trade these markets,
1209
00:29:20.964 --> 00:29:21.084
uh,
1210
00:29:21.194 --> 00:29:23.084
and we've done pretty well over the primaries.
1211
00:29:23.165 --> 00:29:24.875
We've done pretty well in history.
1212
00:29:25.125 --> 00:29:25.435
So,
1213
00:29:25.604 --> 00:29:26.064
you know,
1214
00:29:26.444 --> 00:29:28.964
we hope we continue that here in a couple of weeks.
1215
00:29:29.165 --> 00:29:29.324
OK,
1216
00:29:29.435 --> 00:29:29.964
we're gonna take a break,
1217
00:29:30.125 --> 00:29:31.405
come back on the other side,
1218
00:29:31.765 --> 00:29:32.314
cause I just said,
1219
00:29:32.405 --> 00:29:32.525
hey,
1220
00:29:32.625 --> 00:29:33.005
polls,
1221
00:29:33.204 --> 00:29:33.324
you know,
1222
00:29:33.405 --> 00:29:33.625
you
1223
00:29:33.765 --> 00:29:34.765
can't completely dismiss them.
1224
00:29:34.805 --> 00:29:37.064
You need to know what they are and you need to understand what they mean.
1225
00:29:37.689 --> 00:29:39.079
Sometimes you can completely dismiss them.
1226
00:29:39.239 --> 00:29:40.760
We'll tell you a story about that next.
1227
00:29:56.869 --> 00:29:56.979
Look,
1228
00:29:57.020 --> 00:29:57.829
if you're looking for hope,
1229
00:29:57.979 --> 00:29:58.209
uh,
1230
00:29:58.300 --> 00:29:59.459
on the Republican side,
1231
00:29:59.569 --> 00:29:59.739
you know,
1232
00:30:00.250 --> 00:30:01.300
maybe all the polls are fake.
1233
00:30:01.420 --> 00:30:02.680
Maybe they're all completely made up from scratch.
1234
00:30:05.180 --> 00:30:05.290
Now,
1235
00:30:05.300 --> 00:30:06.959
you might say that sounds ridiculous,
1236
00:30:07.050 --> 00:30:07.339
um,
1237
00:30:07.469 --> 00:30:07.959
but
1238
00:30:08.459 --> 00:30:08.699
first of all,
1239
00:30:08.819 --> 00:30:09.660
you're probably not saying that.
1240
00:30:09.709 --> 00:30:10.219
But secondly,
1241
00:30:10.339 --> 00:30:10.670
what if,
1242
00:30:11.260 --> 00:30:11.619
uh,
1243
00:30:11.689 --> 00:30:12.839
it kind of sounds ridiculous,
1244
00:30:12.930 --> 00:30:13.140
right?
1245
00:30:13.300 --> 00:30:13.420
They're,
1246
00:30:13.530 --> 00:30:15.250
they're at least calling people and asking them the questions,
1247
00:30:15.329 --> 00:30:15.520
right?
1248
00:30:15.780 --> 00:30:15.890
Well,
1249
00:30:15.979 --> 00:30:16.500
maybe not,
1250
00:30:16.579 --> 00:30:17.650
at least in some cases,
1251
00:30:17.729 --> 00:30:17.880
uh,
1252
00:30:17.900 --> 00:30:21.250
fake polling firm duped media in social experiment.
1253
00:30:21.540 --> 00:30:21.650
Now,
1254
00:30:21.660 --> 00:30:22.459
this is interesting,
1255
00:30:22.540 --> 00:30:23.319
they went through,
1256
00:30:23.780 --> 00:30:23.849
uh,
1257
00:30:23.890 --> 00:30:25.900
this is a place called Wedgewood Polls.
1258
00:30:26.319 --> 00:30:27.150
And Wedgwood polls,
1259
00:30:27.160 --> 00:30:27.719
I'd seen them.
1260
00:30:27.760 --> 00:30:28.900
I'd never heard of them before.
1261
00:30:29.319 --> 00:30:29.660
Um,
1262
00:30:29.680 --> 00:30:31.189
I had seen them pop up in polls.
1263
00:30:31.199 --> 00:30:32.869
We probably mentioned one or two other polls.
1264
00:30:32.920 --> 00:30:34.520
I don't remember if we did as we were running through a
1265
00:30:34.520 --> 00:30:36.380
list of polls that were on the New York Times or whatever.
1266
00:30:36.800 --> 00:30:37.030
Um,
1267
00:30:37.119 --> 00:30:38.319
I had seen them before a couple of times,
1268
00:30:38.430 --> 00:30:38.640
I be like,
1269
00:30:38.709 --> 00:30:40.239
that's a weird result and kind of just,
1270
00:30:40.290 --> 00:30:40.439
you know,
1271
00:30:40.660 --> 00:30:40.760
just,
1272
00:30:40.920 --> 00:30:41.439
you don't know.
1273
00:30:41.560 --> 00:30:41.640
I,
1274
00:30:41.719 --> 00:30:41.959
I mean,
1275
00:30:42.000 --> 00:30:42.160
I'm,
1276
00:30:42.270 --> 00:30:43.079
I'm not calling these people.
1277
00:30:43.160 --> 00:30:43.839
I'm not doing this,
1278
00:30:43.959 --> 00:30:44.400
this,
1279
00:30:44.680 --> 00:30:45.069
this,
1280
00:30:45.079 --> 00:30:45.109
uh,
1281
00:30:45.119 --> 00:30:45.479
backend.
1282
00:30:45.770 --> 00:30:46.000
You,
1283
00:30:46.119 --> 00:30:50.020
you'd think there's some backend research as to whether these polls are real or not.
1284
00:30:50.439 --> 00:30:50.859
Um,
1285
00:30:51.560 --> 00:30:52.380
these people,
1286
00:30:52.430 --> 00:30:52.680
uh,
1287
00:30:52.800 --> 00:30:53.680
in organizations,
1288
00:30:53.790 --> 00:30:55.400
50+1 is one of them.
1289
00:30:55.729 --> 00:30:56.189
Um,
1290
00:30:56.310 --> 00:30:56.550
uh,
1291
00:30:56.989 --> 00:30:58.810
says that they did do some backup.
1292
00:30:58.930 --> 00:31:00.229
They did do some checking.
1293
00:31:00.489 --> 00:31:00.609
Uh,
1294
00:31:00.689 --> 00:31:02.010
they found that the people running them
1295
00:31:02.010 --> 00:31:04.949
had experience in the polling industry previously,
1296
00:31:05.290 --> 00:31:05.650
and,
1297
00:31:05.689 --> 00:31:05.930
uh,
1298
00:31:06.050 --> 00:31:06.199
you know,
1299
00:31:06.290 --> 00:31:07.969
did the basic checks and look,
1300
00:31:08.089 --> 00:31:10.089
read their methodology statement and all of that and,
1301
00:31:10.199 --> 00:31:10.459
and said,
1302
00:31:10.530 --> 00:31:10.689
OK,
1303
00:31:10.729 --> 00:31:12.920
it looks like they're good enough to include in our polling averages.
1304
00:31:13.449 --> 00:31:14.089
To their credit,
1305
00:31:14.209 --> 00:31:16.079
they kept looking at this to try to figure out,
1306
00:31:16.170 --> 00:31:16.489
wait a minute,
1307
00:31:16.550 --> 00:31:17.719
this doesn't seem right,
1308
00:31:17.930 --> 00:31:19.569
and eventually caught Wedgwood,
1309
00:31:19.810 --> 00:31:20.000
um,
1310
00:31:20.099 --> 00:31:21.540
manufacturing data.
1311
00:31:21.910 --> 00:31:22.380
Um,
1312
00:31:22.619 --> 00:31:26.300
and it's a long story about how they did it with like identification numbers and,
1313
00:31:26.560 --> 00:31:26.800
um,
1314
00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:27.040
you know,
1315
00:31:27.160 --> 00:31:31.500
internal numbers of the polling place that actually did the supposed calls.
1316
00:31:31.719 --> 00:31:33.719
They could tell that they were manufactured numbers.
1317
00:31:33.880 --> 00:31:34.280
I honestly,
1318
00:31:34.319 --> 00:31:36.500
it was a pretty good detective project by them,
1319
00:31:36.760 --> 00:31:38.589
but they did eventually figure this out.
1320
00:31:38.880 --> 00:31:39.180
And,
1321
00:31:39.310 --> 00:31:39.589
uh,
1322
00:31:39.670 --> 00:31:40.520
and once they did,
1323
00:31:40.599 --> 00:31:40.900
they
1324
00:31:41.040 --> 00:31:41.599
called them and said,
1325
00:31:41.680 --> 00:31:41.800
hey,
1326
00:31:41.880 --> 00:31:42.119
wait a minute,
1327
00:31:42.199 --> 00:31:43.359
you're gonna give us some comment on this?
1328
00:31:43.430 --> 00:31:43.510
I,
1329
00:31:43.719 --> 00:31:43.790
of course,
1330
00:31:43.959 --> 00:31:45.719
we're about to do a story about how you're fake.
1331
00:31:45.959 --> 00:31:47.939
And then Wedgwood did not reply.
1332
00:31:48.910 --> 00:31:50.089
I think they did reply with FU,
1333
00:31:51.689 --> 00:31:52.890
which I think is actually real,
1334
00:31:53.229 --> 00:31:53.430
um,
1335
00:31:53.510 --> 00:31:53.810
but
1336
00:31:54.030 --> 00:31:54.219
they,
1337
00:31:54.260 --> 00:31:54.489
uh,
1338
00:31:54.500 --> 00:31:56.780
replied with this message on social media.
1339
00:31:57.030 --> 00:31:58.020
They say Wedgwood polling,
1340
00:31:58.030 --> 00:32:00.780
an experimental project to determine the vulnerabilities,
1341
00:32:00.949 --> 00:32:01.739
lack of oversight,
1342
00:32:01.790 --> 00:32:04.729
and overall low barrier to entry in the modern polling industry,
1343
00:32:05.150 --> 00:32:06.349
makes this public statement.
1344
00:32:06.670 --> 00:32:06.829
We,
1345
00:32:06.900 --> 00:32:07.089
uh,
1346
00:32:07.189 --> 00:32:07.469
basically,
1347
00:32:07.530 --> 00:32:08.189
they basically said,
1348
00:32:08.270 --> 00:32:08.469
look,
1349
00:32:08.550 --> 00:32:09.349
we just.
1350
00:32:09.800 --> 00:32:10.770
We had no history,
1351
00:32:10.880 --> 00:32:12.329
we had no credentials,
1352
00:32:12.650 --> 00:32:15.359
we had no data behind the vast majority of our releases,
1353
00:32:15.640 --> 00:32:18.609
and yet the New York Times and 50+1 and VoteHub
1354
00:32:18.810 --> 00:32:21.569
all repeatedly treated us as a legitimate polling source.
1355
00:32:21.650 --> 00:32:22.510
So they're basically saying like,
1356
00:32:22.530 --> 00:32:24.150
we did this on purpose to show
1357
00:32:24.489 --> 00:32:25.430
how bad
1358
00:32:25.609 --> 00:32:26.880
the information system is.
1359
00:32:27.079 --> 00:32:27.089
Uh,
1360
00:32:27.130 --> 00:32:27.290
you know,
1361
00:32:27.449 --> 00:32:29.060
part of me likes those types of things,
1362
00:32:29.239 --> 00:32:29.569
honestly,
1363
00:32:29.650 --> 00:32:29.770
like,
1364
00:32:29.810 --> 00:32:32.030
I like when people do that and they screw with the media.
1365
00:32:33.160 --> 00:32:33.520
But I mean,
1366
00:32:33.599 --> 00:32:33.910
also,
1367
00:32:33.959 --> 00:32:35.380
I don't really like it that much,
1368
00:32:35.510 --> 00:32:35.640
you know,
1369
00:32:35.719 --> 00:32:36.420
it's like you,
1370
00:32:36.640 --> 00:32:36.920
it's,
1371
00:32:37.040 --> 00:32:37.280
it's,
1372
00:32:37.310 --> 00:32:37.760
uh.
1373
00:32:39.359 --> 00:32:41.829
Our information diet is crappy enough as it is.
1374
00:32:42.079 --> 00:32:42.709
I will say,
1375
00:32:42.719 --> 00:32:43.180
one of the,
1376
00:32:43.359 --> 00:32:44.400
the secrets of this game,
1377
00:32:44.479 --> 00:32:45.400
if you're in here and you're,
1378
00:32:45.520 --> 00:32:45.949
you're like,
1379
00:32:46.020 --> 00:32:46.160
I,
1380
00:32:46.280 --> 00:32:46.439
you know,
1381
00:32:46.520 --> 00:32:47.520
I love prediction markets.
1382
00:32:47.599 --> 00:32:47.800
I am,
1383
00:32:47.880 --> 00:32:48.000
you know,
1384
00:32:48.079 --> 00:32:48.199
I,
1385
00:32:48.280 --> 00:32:49.699
I wanna try to figure this stuff out.
1386
00:32:50.439 --> 00:32:52.140
One of the ways you do this
1387
00:32:52.400 --> 00:32:55.420
is by trying to suss through bad data,
1388
00:32:55.680 --> 00:32:55.800
right?
1389
00:32:55.880 --> 00:32:59.140
Like looking at a report and trying to understand
1390
00:32:59.520 --> 00:33:01.119
which parts are good and which parts are bad,
1391
00:33:01.229 --> 00:33:01.880
which polls are good,
1392
00:33:01.989 --> 00:33:02.640
which polls are bad,
1393
00:33:02.760 --> 00:33:03.359
which data is good,
1394
00:33:03.479 --> 00:33:04.319
which data is bad.
1395
00:33:04.670 --> 00:33:05.469
That's the whole game.
1396
00:33:05.550 --> 00:33:08.569
It's why prediction markets typically outperform polls
1397
00:33:09.109 --> 00:33:10.750
because they are taking into account,
1398
00:33:10.869 --> 00:33:11.300
wait a minute,
1399
00:33:11.390 --> 00:33:12.609
I don't believe that.
1400
00:33:12.869 --> 00:33:15.030
I don't believe that internal poll that shows
1401
00:33:15.030 --> 00:33:17.910
the Democrat up by 19 points in Alabama.
1402
00:33:18.069 --> 00:33:19.050
I don't buy it.
1403
00:33:19.550 --> 00:33:19.670
You know,
1404
00:33:19.750 --> 00:33:21.099
if you just believe polls straight,
1405
00:33:21.229 --> 00:33:22.910
you wind up with information that's terrible,
1406
00:33:22.949 --> 00:33:23.530
and in this case,
1407
00:33:23.709 --> 00:33:23.869
really,
1408
00:33:23.989 --> 00:33:24.430
really bad.
1409
00:33:24.510 --> 00:33:24.630
Now,
1410
00:33:24.949 --> 00:33:26.069
Democrats are really pissed off about this.
1411
00:33:26.150 --> 00:33:28.020
And it's funny because I remember seeing Wedgwood in the,
1412
00:33:28.069 --> 00:33:29.219
in these polling results and being like,
1413
00:33:29.349 --> 00:33:29.609
gosh.
1414
00:33:30.349 --> 00:33:32.329
I remember getting pissed at them because
1415
00:33:32.589 --> 00:33:32.760
I was like,
1416
00:33:32.829 --> 00:33:32.949
God,
1417
00:33:33.020 --> 00:33:35.630
that polls is against my prediction market position,
1418
00:33:35.709 --> 00:33:35.800
right?
1419
00:33:35.839 --> 00:33:36.260
Like I was like,
1420
00:33:36.300 --> 00:33:36.709
oh crap,
1421
00:33:36.750 --> 00:33:37.550
this is screwing my,
1422
00:33:37.670 --> 00:33:37.890
my,
1423
00:33:37.900 --> 00:33:38.060
uh,
1424
00:33:38.069 --> 00:33:39.290
portfolio up a little bit.
1425
00:33:39.589 --> 00:33:39.959
Um.
1426
00:33:40.819 --> 00:33:44.170
But I don't remember them being favoring Republicans over and over and over again.
1427
00:33:44.469 --> 00:33:44.910
I guess,
1428
00:33:45.020 --> 00:33:45.140
uh,
1429
00:33:45.189 --> 00:33:46.869
that's at least the accusation right now.
1430
00:33:47.189 --> 00:33:50.050
Democrats furious after a pollster boosting far-left candidates,
1431
00:33:50.229 --> 00:33:50.810
admits
1432
00:33:50.969 --> 00:33:52.569
fabricating surveys.
1433
00:33:53.109 --> 00:33:54.989
One of the candidates who was really pissed
1434
00:33:54.989 --> 00:33:56.989
off with this is someone named Mallory McMorrow.
1435
00:33:57.069 --> 00:33:58.550
You might not remember that name because she,
1436
00:33:58.750 --> 00:33:59.619
she dropped out.
1437
00:34:00.030 --> 00:34:00.689
She was the.
1438
00:34:00.939 --> 00:34:02.739
If you remember El Sayed on one side,
1439
00:34:02.780 --> 00:34:03.439
on the left,
1440
00:34:03.859 --> 00:34:04.619
on my left,
1441
00:34:04.819 --> 00:34:05.020
um,
1442
00:34:05.140 --> 00:34:05.420
and,
1443
00:34:05.459 --> 00:34:05.650
uh,
1444
00:34:05.780 --> 00:34:06.819
Haley Stevens as the,
1445
00:34:06.900 --> 00:34:07.010
uh,
1446
00:34:07.099 --> 00:34:07.219
you know,
1447
00:34:07.380 --> 00:34:08.500
centrist candidate,
1448
00:34:08.570 --> 00:34:09.978
I'm certainly not going to say on the right
1449
00:34:10.219 --> 00:34:11.208
when we're talking about this crew.
1450
00:34:11.580 --> 00:34:13.139
Mallory McMorrow was the one in the middle.
1451
00:34:13.489 --> 00:34:14.918
And she was kind of the one that at,
1452
00:34:14.989 --> 00:34:17.080
at the beginning was thought to be favored because,
1453
00:34:17.330 --> 00:34:17.639
you know,
1454
00:34:17.850 --> 00:34:21.168
I'll say it's it's too extreme on one side and Stevens is too extreme on the other.
1455
00:34:21.250 --> 00:34:22.159
Maybe we'll pick the middle one.
1456
00:34:22.239 --> 00:34:22.290
Now,
1457
00:34:22.330 --> 00:34:23.688
I don't know when that actually ever works.
1458
00:34:23.800 --> 00:34:24.030
Frankly,
1459
00:34:24.070 --> 00:34:25.228
it doesn't seem to work all that often,
1460
00:34:25.300 --> 00:34:25.590
but
1461
00:34:25.850 --> 00:34:26.168
whatever.
1462
00:34:26.250 --> 00:34:27.429
She tried it and failed.
1463
00:34:27.688 --> 00:34:27.850
Um,
1464
00:34:27.969 --> 00:34:29.000
she tweeted this out,
1465
00:34:29.090 --> 00:34:29.250
uh,
1466
00:34:29.370 --> 00:34:30.929
after this news came out from the,
1467
00:34:31.090 --> 00:34:31.929
about the Wedgwood poll,
1468
00:34:32.010 --> 00:34:33.800
which did poll her race.
1469
00:34:34.050 --> 00:34:36.050
She says that one of the candidates featured in these polls,
1470
00:34:36.100 --> 00:34:39.449
the infamous one in late June that showed me plummeting into single digits,
1471
00:34:39.728 --> 00:34:41.889
which was at odds with our internal polling.
1472
00:34:42.309 --> 00:34:43.589
Here's the impact of your,
1473
00:34:43.688 --> 00:34:44.708
your experiment.
1474
00:34:44.989 --> 00:34:46.138
Donations dried up.
1475
00:34:46.309 --> 00:34:47.618
Volunteers were devastated,
1476
00:34:47.748 --> 00:34:49.408
pleading for guidance on what to do.
1477
00:34:49.789 --> 00:34:52.018
Reporters hounded me with calls to drop out.
1478
00:34:52.467 --> 00:34:52.589
Sure,
1479
00:34:52.668 --> 00:34:53.549
a point was proven,
1480
00:34:53.628 --> 00:34:54.697
polling is broken,
1481
00:34:54.868 --> 00:34:56.868
but tens of thousands of people poured their hearts,
1482
00:34:56.978 --> 00:34:57.628
time and energy,
1483
00:34:57.668 --> 00:34:58.509
and hard-earned money into.
1484
00:34:58.669 --> 00:35:00.489
Something they believed in for a year and a half
1485
00:35:00.669 --> 00:35:01.729
and it was treated like a game.
1486
00:35:02.070 --> 00:35:02.989
Our volunteers,
1487
00:35:03.149 --> 00:35:03.300
uh,
1488
00:35:03.310 --> 00:35:03.979
gave it their all,
1489
00:35:03.989 --> 00:35:04.590
and then some,
1490
00:35:04.669 --> 00:35:06.629
I feel like we let so many of them down.
1491
00:35:06.870 --> 00:35:07.340
She goes on to,
1492
00:35:07.419 --> 00:35:07.550
you know,
1493
00:35:07.669 --> 00:35:09.610
shill for El Sayed and then say,
1494
00:35:09.790 --> 00:35:10.750
if this teaches us anything,
1495
00:35:10.870 --> 00:35:12.620
don't get complacent and don't trust the polls.
1496
00:35:12.659 --> 00:35:13.179
And I think that's,
1497
00:35:13.270 --> 00:35:13.649
look,
1498
00:35:14.020 --> 00:35:14.850
always the right advice.
1499
00:35:15.830 --> 00:35:16.149
I was,
1500
00:35:16.229 --> 00:35:17.060
I was confused by this.
1501
00:35:17.110 --> 00:35:17.540
People were like,
1502
00:35:17.590 --> 00:35:17.870
oh gosh,
1503
00:35:17.909 --> 00:35:18.909
I want my candidate to win.
1504
00:35:18.949 --> 00:35:19.739
I wanna vote for the winner.
1505
00:35:19.800 --> 00:35:21.310
Who cares if you vote for the winner or not?
1506
00:35:21.790 --> 00:35:22.770
Vote for who you think is good,
1507
00:35:22.939 --> 00:35:23.709
who you think is right.
1508
00:35:25.379 --> 00:35:26.939
if the polls show your person's behind,
1509
00:35:27.060 --> 00:35:28.570
even more reason for you to go vote,
1510
00:35:28.739 --> 00:35:28.860
right?
1511
00:35:29.020 --> 00:35:29.879
Because you want them to win.
1512
00:35:30.379 --> 00:35:30.489
Uh,
1513
00:35:30.659 --> 00:35:32.959
you shouldn't be downtrodden by the polls.
1514
00:35:33.330 --> 00:35:33.419
The,
1515
00:35:33.479 --> 00:35:37.260
the answer is always to go out there and do a little bit more if it's possible for you.
1516
00:35:37.629 --> 00:35:38.020
Um,
1517
00:35:38.070 --> 00:35:38.830
if you care about the,
1518
00:35:38.949 --> 00:35:39.149
these,
1519
00:35:39.270 --> 00:35:39.709
these races,
1520
00:35:39.830 --> 00:35:40.810
do something about it.
1521
00:35:41.020 --> 00:35:41.270
Um,
1522
00:35:41.389 --> 00:35:42.610
all that being said,
1523
00:35:42.870 --> 00:35:43.070
uh,
1524
00:35:43.189 --> 00:35:43.969
the fact is,
1525
00:35:44.310 --> 00:35:45.459
we are in a weird environment,
1526
00:35:45.469 --> 00:35:45.750
and I,
1527
00:35:45.870 --> 00:35:48.010
I've said this on Twitter and I'll say it again here.
1528
00:35:48.310 --> 00:35:49.489
Maybe the answer here
1529
00:35:49.590 --> 00:35:51.100
is you don't include them in your polling
1530
00:35:51.100 --> 00:35:53.830
averages until you understand they are legitimate.
1531
00:35:53.989 --> 00:35:56.969
Don't just include them and then try to disprove their legitimacy.
1532
00:35:57.350 --> 00:35:58.100
Do the opposite.
1533
00:35:58.330 --> 00:35:59.429
Find out they're legitimate first.
1534
00:35:59.510 --> 00:36:00.649
If they're new to the game
1535
00:36:00.949 --> 00:36:02.290
and not an established player.
1536
00:36:02.879 --> 00:36:03.780
Have a vetting period.
1537
00:36:04.280 --> 00:36:05.760
Wait until you see what the heck they're
1538
00:36:05.760 --> 00:36:07.750
doing before you include them in these averages,
1539
00:36:07.909 --> 00:36:09.560
that seems to be the most simple step.
1540
00:36:24.179 --> 00:36:24.379
Uh,
1541
00:36:24.469 --> 00:36:24.580
yes,
1542
00:36:24.659 --> 00:36:27.389
there's always people at the storming the gates of the castle,
1543
00:36:27.540 --> 00:36:29.100
trying to take down prediction markets.
1544
00:36:29.219 --> 00:36:29.580
That is,
1545
00:36:29.610 --> 00:36:29.899
uh,
1546
00:36:29.909 --> 00:36:33.169
kind of the central function of many government officials these days,
1547
00:36:33.500 --> 00:36:34.699
because they got nothing better to do.
1548
00:36:34.820 --> 00:36:36.659
Certainly no problems going on in the country right now.
1549
00:36:36.739 --> 00:36:38.639
Let's make sure we go after prediction markets.
1550
00:36:39.010 --> 00:36:39.260
Um,
1551
00:36:39.340 --> 00:36:40.679
a new lawsuit came out,
1552
00:36:40.780 --> 00:36:41.139
uh,
1553
00:36:41.219 --> 00:36:41.729
in Utah.
1554
00:36:41.790 --> 00:36:42.870
Utah sues Calsci,
1555
00:36:43.620 --> 00:36:46.639
seeking up to $60 million in profit made off of
1556
00:36:46.870 --> 00:36:47.919
Utahns.
1557
00:36:48.909 --> 00:36:49.719
It's a fun word to say,
1558
00:36:49.840 --> 00:36:50.979
Utahns.
1559
00:36:51.479 --> 00:36:51.820
Look.
1560
00:36:54.699 --> 00:36:56.199
Spencer Cox is the governor there.
1561
00:36:56.500 --> 00:36:57.090
Um,
1562
00:36:57.179 --> 00:36:58.399
I had him on the show before.
1563
00:36:58.699 --> 00:36:59.260
Uh,
1564
00:36:59.379 --> 00:37:02.040
the Attorney general's name is Derek Brown.
1565
00:37:02.219 --> 00:37:02.899
I don't know him.
1566
00:37:02.939 --> 00:37:03.419
I don't,
1567
00:37:03.500 --> 00:37:04.580
I mean probably has been on,
1568
00:37:04.679 --> 00:37:06.600
was on the radio show with us as well back in the day.
1569
00:37:06.820 --> 00:37:07.139
I have nothing,
1570
00:37:07.219 --> 00:37:08.540
I don't combat this is like the,
1571
00:37:08.659 --> 00:37:11.620
the person who's like a typically attacking a Republican politician.
1572
00:37:11.699 --> 00:37:12.060
Like I,
1573
00:37:12.169 --> 00:37:12.500
you know,
1574
00:37:12.580 --> 00:37:14.459
I agree with him on most topics.
1575
00:37:15.169 --> 00:37:16.169
This is a pretty weak one,
1576
00:37:16.260 --> 00:37:17.699
a pretty weak set of arguments,
1577
00:37:17.780 --> 00:37:18.379
and frankly,
1578
00:37:18.459 --> 00:37:21.280
it doesn't feel like they put all that much effort into these arguments,
1579
00:37:21.620 --> 00:37:21.929
um,
1580
00:37:22.100 --> 00:37:22.389
you know,
1581
00:37:22.500 --> 00:37:24.360
except to try to make up little catchy lines.
1582
00:37:24.419 --> 00:37:24.580
I mean,
1583
00:37:24.629 --> 00:37:24.879
let me,
1584
00:37:24.939 --> 00:37:25.360
uh,
1585
00:37:25.939 --> 00:37:26.860
I'll give you an example.
1586
00:37:27.179 --> 00:37:28.139
These companies,
1587
00:37:28.540 --> 00:37:29.879
they're not your friends,
1588
00:37:30.100 --> 00:37:30.580
but the,
1589
00:37:30.659 --> 00:37:31.100
just so you know,
1590
00:37:31.179 --> 00:37:32.500
the government is.
1591
00:37:32.580 --> 00:37:32.659
The,
1592
00:37:32.760 --> 00:37:34.540
the government is your friend.
1593
00:37:34.620 --> 00:37:36.899
That's what us conservatives believe today.
1594
00:37:37.219 --> 00:37:37.379
Uh,
1595
00:37:37.500 --> 00:37:37.939
these companies,
1596
00:37:38.020 --> 00:37:39.010
they're not your friends,
1597
00:37:39.219 --> 00:37:40.479
they're not helping you invest,
1598
00:37:40.820 --> 00:37:43.379
they're not providing you with insights or opportunity.
1599
00:37:43.669 --> 00:37:44.260
Frankly,
1600
00:37:44.379 --> 00:37:47.919
they are engineered to do one thing and one thing alone.
1601
00:37:48.699 --> 00:37:50.520
Empty your wallet,
1602
00:37:50.820 --> 00:37:51.939
said Elizabeth Warren.
1603
00:37:52.020 --> 00:37:52.260
I'm sorry,
1604
00:37:52.340 --> 00:37:52.419
no,
1605
00:37:52.530 --> 00:37:52.689
uh,
1606
00:37:52.780 --> 00:37:52.909
uh,
1607
00:37:52.979 --> 00:37:53.340
the,
1608
00:37:53.350 --> 00:37:53.360
uh,
1609
00:37:53.370 --> 00:37:54.429
AG from Utah.
1610
00:37:54.659 --> 00:37:55.020
Um,
1611
00:37:55.300 --> 00:37:55.659
look.
1612
00:37:57.889 --> 00:37:58.169
Cal,
1613
00:37:58.389 --> 00:37:58.699
this,
1614
00:37:58.830 --> 00:38:00.090
let me explain something to you.
1615
00:38:00.550 --> 00:38:00.979
Calhi,
1616
00:38:01.149 --> 00:38:02.020
this is how they make money,
1617
00:38:02.110 --> 00:38:02.310
OK?
1618
00:38:02.389 --> 00:38:02.510
Here,
1619
00:38:02.590 --> 00:38:02.879
here you go.
1620
00:38:02.949 --> 00:38:03.729
You ready for it?
1621
00:38:04.350 --> 00:38:07.330
You put in a trade and they take a fee off of that trade.
1622
00:38:07.590 --> 00:38:10.870
If they were specifically designed to empty your wallet,
1623
00:38:10.949 --> 00:38:11.840
what they might do,
1624
00:38:11.949 --> 00:38:13.330
let's just give a situation is
1625
00:38:13.510 --> 00:38:15.830
to try to get people to put a wager on,
1626
00:38:15.909 --> 00:38:16.909
on some position,
1627
00:38:17.110 --> 00:38:18.370
and then when they lose,
1628
00:38:18.629 --> 00:38:18.830
uh,
1629
00:38:18.949 --> 00:38:19.129
that,
1630
00:38:19.189 --> 00:38:19.489
uh,
1631
00:38:19.610 --> 00:38:19.620
the,
1632
00:38:19.750 --> 00:38:20.429
that wager,
1633
00:38:20.510 --> 00:38:21.370
they take all the money.
1634
00:38:21.669 --> 00:38:22.070
That's a.
1635
00:38:22.229 --> 00:38:23.709
To try to get people to empty their pockets.
1636
00:38:23.790 --> 00:38:23.959
Now,
1637
00:38:24.070 --> 00:38:26.719
I don't have any negative feelings about those types of things.
1638
00:38:26.909 --> 00:38:27.189
I,
1639
00:38:27.270 --> 00:38:28.060
as a conservative,
1640
00:38:28.110 --> 00:38:28.570
as a,
1641
00:38:28.709 --> 00:38:31.090
a person who believes in personal
1642
00:38:31.590 --> 00:38:32.790
responsibility,
1643
00:38:32.989 --> 00:38:33.570
I
1644
00:38:33.830 --> 00:38:34.330
believe
1645
00:38:34.510 --> 00:38:34.909
that
1646
00:38:35.070 --> 00:38:37.209
it is up to you to decide where to spend your money.
1647
00:38:37.429 --> 00:38:37.550
You know,
1648
00:38:37.629 --> 00:38:38.669
I went to a movie the other night.
1649
00:38:38.709 --> 00:38:39.229
You know what they did?
1650
00:38:39.310 --> 00:38:40.449
They took my money.
1651
00:38:40.949 --> 00:38:43.770
They were specifically designed to empty my wallet.
1652
00:38:44.610 --> 00:38:47.780
But I made that decision because it entertained me for a while.
1653
00:38:47.860 --> 00:38:50.520
So if you wanna make wagers on sports or whatever else,
1654
00:38:50.699 --> 00:38:51.459
that is up to you.
1655
00:38:51.659 --> 00:38:52.929
You're a big boy,
1656
00:38:53.179 --> 00:38:54.360
you're a big girl,
1657
00:38:54.580 --> 00:38:55.719
you're an adult.
1658
00:38:56.820 --> 00:38:57.179
I,
1659
00:38:57.260 --> 00:39:00.000
as someone who believes in personal responsibility,
1660
00:39:00.500 --> 00:39:03.219
think that that's kind of like really obvious,
1661
00:39:03.500 --> 00:39:06.179
but I guess the government's supposed to protect us from all these things.
1662
00:39:06.260 --> 00:39:06.379
Now,
1663
00:39:06.419 --> 00:39:06.959
OK,
1664
00:39:07.260 --> 00:39:08.060
you wanna say that.
1665
00:39:08.300 --> 00:39:11.820
If you are a company specifically designed to empty somebody's wallet,
1666
00:39:12.100 --> 00:39:14.340
the way you would not do that is to facilitate
1667
00:39:14.340 --> 00:39:16.620
trades and take a small percentage in a fee.
1668
00:39:17.219 --> 00:39:18.760
That's obviously moronic.
1669
00:39:19.129 --> 00:39:20.120
Then we would all be saying,
1670
00:39:20.169 --> 00:39:20.360
well,
1671
00:39:20.500 --> 00:39:21.370
PayPal,
1672
00:39:21.610 --> 00:39:24.169
PayPal is specifically designed to empty your wallet.
1673
00:39:24.290 --> 00:39:24.330
Well,
1674
00:39:24.409 --> 00:39:26.449
they're taking a small fee on transactions,
1675
00:39:26.570 --> 00:39:27.070
yeah.
1676
00:39:27.810 --> 00:39:29.429
It's just an idiotic argument.
1677
00:39:29.810 --> 00:39:29.959
And,
1678
00:39:30.010 --> 00:39:30.040
and,
1679
00:39:30.129 --> 00:39:30.290
you know,
1680
00:39:30.449 --> 00:39:30.889
frankly,
1681
00:39:31.100 --> 00:39:31.199
the,
1682
00:39:31.290 --> 00:39:31.370
I,
1683
00:39:31.449 --> 00:39:31.610
I,
1684
00:39:31.729 --> 00:39:33.370
I have to imagine these guys know better,
1685
00:39:33.449 --> 00:39:33.989
but whatever.
1686
00:39:34.290 --> 00:39:34.449
You know,
1687
00:39:34.570 --> 00:39:34.810
this is,
1688
00:39:34.929 --> 00:39:36.010
it's the culture in Utah,
1689
00:39:36.090 --> 00:39:38.110
they believe the laws in Utah are on their side,
1690
00:39:38.449 --> 00:39:40.530
so they're making these arguments with their cute little,
1691
00:39:40.729 --> 00:39:41.239
uh,
1692
00:39:41.520 --> 00:39:42.030
uh,
1693
00:39:42.610 --> 00:39:46.070
Calshi bet today that Utah would not enforce its gambling laws.
1694
00:39:46.169 --> 00:39:46.429
Well,
1695
00:39:46.679 --> 00:39:48.219
Calci's lost their bet.
1696
00:39:48.320 --> 00:39:48.649
OK,
1697
00:39:48.729 --> 00:39:49.629
I got the tough guy,
1698
00:39:49.729 --> 00:39:50.010
uh,
1699
00:39:50.129 --> 00:39:50.280
you know,
1700
00:39:50.409 --> 00:39:51.260
bumper sticker thing.
1701
00:39:51.290 --> 00:39:51.479
That's,
1702
00:39:51.520 --> 00:39:52.229
that's really funny.
1703
00:39:53.239 --> 00:39:54.290
But it is a bit idiotic,
1704
00:39:54.360 --> 00:39:55.030
frankly.
1705
00:39:55.409 --> 00:39:55.530
Uh,
1706
00:39:55.610 --> 00:39:56.030
they are
1707
00:39:56.169 --> 00:39:57.530
in the lawsuit trying to get $330 to
1708
00:39:57.530 --> 00:40:00.689
$60 million acting like there's some thing that happened
1709
00:40:00.850 --> 00:40:03.929
where people were victimized by trading with other people,
1710
00:40:04.209 --> 00:40:04.840
largely,
1711
00:40:05.090 --> 00:40:05.250
uh,
1712
00:40:05.370 --> 00:40:05.530
and,
1713
00:40:05.649 --> 00:40:07.689
and a fee being taken off of that transaction.
1714
00:40:07.770 --> 00:40:07.919
Now,
1715
00:40:08.010 --> 00:40:08.429
look,
1716
00:40:08.729 --> 00:40:13.040
that number matches up with what we believe the fees were charged to people in Utah.
1717
00:40:13.129 --> 00:40:13.429
So,
1718
00:40:13.669 --> 00:40:14.429
we know
1719
00:40:14.530 --> 00:40:15.409
what they're saying here.
1720
00:40:15.489 --> 00:40:15.969
They're saying,
1721
00:40:16.090 --> 00:40:16.629
well,
1722
00:40:16.850 --> 00:40:17.810
what we have evidence of,
1723
00:40:17.889 --> 00:40:21.669
we believe are fees paid by people in Utah in these transactions.
1724
00:40:22.729 --> 00:40:25.090
They know the money wasn't lost to,
1725
00:40:25.169 --> 00:40:25.439
uh,
1726
00:40:25.570 --> 00:40:26.090
to Calci.
1727
00:40:26.179 --> 00:40:27.570
The money was lost to,
1728
00:40:27.850 --> 00:40:28.080
uh,
1729
00:40:28.090 --> 00:40:28.550
other people.
1730
00:40:28.689 --> 00:40:31.929
We know that because that number is right around what we'd expected for fees.
1731
00:40:32.239 --> 00:40:32.830
They have a,
1732
00:40:32.850 --> 00:40:33.149
uh,
1733
00:40:33.159 --> 00:40:34.679
convoluted idea here,
1734
00:40:34.689 --> 00:40:35.770
and this is in the lawsuit,
1735
00:40:35.850 --> 00:40:36.750
this diagram
1736
00:40:37.169 --> 00:40:37.370
of,
1737
00:40:37.459 --> 00:40:38.479
of companies,
1738
00:40:38.810 --> 00:40:39.189
which is,
1739
00:40:39.330 --> 00:40:40.959
this is a known thing where CalSci,
1740
00:40:41.040 --> 00:40:41.239
uh,
1741
00:40:41.250 --> 00:40:42.840
other markets do this as well,
1742
00:40:43.090 --> 00:40:43.439
where they have,
1743
00:40:43.489 --> 00:40:46.010
will have market makers putting shares available at both,
1744
00:40:46.070 --> 00:40:47.209
on both sides of trades,
1745
00:40:47.330 --> 00:40:48.929
so there's liquidity in markets,
1746
00:40:49.370 --> 00:40:49.629
right?
1747
00:40:50.500 --> 00:40:51.100
This is something,
1748
00:40:51.139 --> 00:40:53.060
especially in smaller markets where you kind of need this,
1749
00:40:53.139 --> 00:40:53.580
where there's no,
1750
00:40:53.729 --> 00:40:55.060
there's maybe nobody trading them.
1751
00:40:55.100 --> 00:40:56.449
They need to get trades going,
1752
00:40:56.540 --> 00:40:57.080
so they put,
1753
00:40:57.139 --> 00:40:57.409
uh,
1754
00:40:57.419 --> 00:40:58.979
shares available in markets.
1755
00:40:59.020 --> 00:40:59.540
These companies,
1756
00:40:59.620 --> 00:41:00.340
these clearing houses,
1757
00:41:00.419 --> 00:41:01.179
the platform operator,
1758
00:41:01.260 --> 00:41:01.780
market maker,
1759
00:41:01.860 --> 00:41:02.379
holding companies,
1760
00:41:02.459 --> 00:41:03.120
all this stuff
1761
00:41:03.250 --> 00:41:04.060
is something that's known.
1762
00:41:04.100 --> 00:41:04.919
And by the way,
1763
00:41:05.149 --> 00:41:07.659
all evidence that we have up until now at least,
1764
00:41:07.860 --> 00:41:08.320
is that
1765
00:41:09.070 --> 00:41:10.459
Calci loses money doing this.
1766
00:41:11.060 --> 00:41:12.580
Calci doesn't empty your wallet.
1767
00:41:12.679 --> 00:41:14.360
They lose money doing this.
1768
00:41:14.520 --> 00:41:14.679
They,
1769
00:41:14.840 --> 00:41:17.919
there's rumors of them losing millions of dollars doing this.
1770
00:41:18.199 --> 00:41:18.719
And for them,
1771
00:41:18.760 --> 00:41:19.639
it kind of might make sense,
1772
00:41:19.729 --> 00:41:19.840
right?
1773
00:41:19.909 --> 00:41:21.439
They want people to get involved in these markets,
1774
00:41:21.560 --> 00:41:23.659
so they don't mind losing some money on these trades,
1775
00:41:23.879 --> 00:41:25.399
but they lose money doing this,
1776
00:41:25.439 --> 00:41:27.199
at least of all the evidence we have now,
1777
00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:28.600
maybe something will turn up later on.
1778
00:41:28.679 --> 00:41:29.899
We will see on that.
1779
00:41:30.280 --> 00:41:30.649
Um.
1780
00:41:31.479 --> 00:41:32.709
That's what they're trying to do,
1781
00:41:32.760 --> 00:41:34.979
but we know there's a disingenuous tie here,
1782
00:41:35.159 --> 00:41:37.100
because the money that they're looking for
1783
00:41:37.409 --> 00:41:40.100
is the amount of money that is supposedly
1784
00:41:40.310 --> 00:41:42.919
um tied to the amounts of fees being charged.
1785
00:41:43.040 --> 00:41:43.459
Look,
1786
00:41:43.830 --> 00:41:44.199
I don't know.
1787
00:41:44.310 --> 00:41:44.439
Look,
1788
00:41:44.520 --> 00:41:45.560
you answer me this question.
1789
00:41:45.639 --> 00:41:46.709
Maybe I'm wrong on this.
1790
00:41:46.879 --> 00:41:49.070
Has the government charged any fees for anything?
1791
00:41:49.360 --> 00:41:51.399
You ever been charged a fee by the government?
1792
00:41:51.949 --> 00:41:53.719
Are they your friends?
1793
00:41:54.610 --> 00:41:57.159
Are they specifically designed to empty your wallet?
1794
00:41:57.209 --> 00:41:57.889
I'll give you a hint,
1795
00:41:58.010 --> 00:41:58.169
yeah,
1796
00:41:58.330 --> 00:41:58.729
kinda,
1797
00:41:58.929 --> 00:41:59.639
but still,
1798
00:41:59.850 --> 00:42:02.560
they don't seem to hold any blame for themselves on these things.
1799
00:42:02.850 --> 00:42:05.169
They're charging you fees for transactions all the time.
1800
00:42:05.330 --> 00:42:05.530
In fact,
1801
00:42:05.600 --> 00:42:06.270
they're fees,
1802
00:42:06.649 --> 00:42:08.149
transactions I don't even wanna have
1803
00:42:08.530 --> 00:42:09.360
anything to do with.
1804
00:42:09.889 --> 00:42:12.570
They make me go into the freaking DMV and they charge fees,
1805
00:42:12.610 --> 00:42:15.489
and then I gotta go pay this fee and this tax and all these other
1806
00:42:15.489 --> 00:42:18.050
things all the time to the government and I get nothing out of it.
1807
00:42:19.189 --> 00:42:19.570
If they're,
1808
00:42:19.830 --> 00:42:20.030
by the way,
1809
00:42:20.100 --> 00:42:21.449
if they're specifically designed
1810
00:42:21.669 --> 00:42:22.469
to empty your wallets,
1811
00:42:22.590 --> 00:42:24.010
they're doing a terrible job.
1812
00:42:24.429 --> 00:42:25.270
I've been profitable,
1813
00:42:25.520 --> 00:42:25.669
you know,
1814
00:42:25.780 --> 00:42:26.110
you don't,
1815
00:42:26.590 --> 00:42:26.669
look,
1816
00:42:26.750 --> 00:42:28.729
I've been profitable on prediction markets every year since,
1817
00:42:28.770 --> 00:42:29.030
what is it,
1818
00:42:29.070 --> 00:42:30.250
2014.
1819
00:42:31.270 --> 00:42:32.580
If you are on the other side of that,
1820
00:42:32.629 --> 00:42:32.750
you know,
1821
00:42:32.949 --> 00:42:33.310
people win,
1822
00:42:33.379 --> 00:42:33.800
people lose,
1823
00:42:33.870 --> 00:42:34.270
of course,
1824
00:42:34.350 --> 00:42:34.780
you make money,
1825
00:42:34.830 --> 00:42:35.229
you profit,
1826
00:42:35.270 --> 00:42:36.669
you lose just like in any market.
1827
00:42:37.110 --> 00:42:38.370
But the bottom line is,
1828
00:42:38.649 --> 00:42:38.939
uh,
1829
00:42:39.030 --> 00:42:39.870
if you want to clear out wallets,
1830
00:42:39.909 --> 00:42:43.209
you're doing a bad job with the people over here at PredictableShow.com,
1831
00:42:43.629 --> 00:42:43.750
uh,
1832
00:42:43.949 --> 00:42:45.070
because it's not working out all that well,
1833
00:42:45.189 --> 00:42:45.469
Kelshi.
1834
00:42:45.790 --> 00:42:48.770
Maybe have to modify your stealing standards.
1835
00:42:49.070 --> 00:42:49.770
Back in a second.
1836
00:42:58.439 --> 00:43:00.750
Whether you like prediction markets or not or interested in them or not,
1837
00:43:01.280 --> 00:43:01.429
you,
1838
00:43:01.479 --> 00:43:02.469
you probably like elections.
1839
00:43:02.479 --> 00:43:03.840
You probably are interested in the outcomes.
1840
00:43:03.919 --> 00:43:06.280
If you think you can call the elections better than other people,
1841
00:43:06.639 --> 00:43:07.919
go to Senatefantasy.com.
1842
00:43:07.959 --> 00:43:09.600
We've got a Senate fantasy league going on right now.
1843
00:43:09.639 --> 00:43:10.459
It's free to join.
1844
00:43:10.719 --> 00:43:12.600
First prize is like 2500 bucks.
1845
00:43:12.919 --> 00:43:14.139
Fund your prediction market account
1846
00:43:14.290 --> 00:43:16.439
or just keep the money to yourself and do whatever you want.
1847
00:43:16.520 --> 00:43:17.179
I don't care.
1848
00:43:17.399 --> 00:43:17.600
Uh,
1849
00:43:17.679 --> 00:43:17.840
but,
1850
00:43:17.919 --> 00:43:18.070
uh,
1851
00:43:18.110 --> 00:43:18.199
hey,
1852
00:43:18.270 --> 00:43:18.979
it's free money.
1853
00:43:19.159 --> 00:43:19.439
Um,
1854
00:43:19.560 --> 00:43:20.419
so predictable,
1855
00:43:20.439 --> 00:43:20.739
uh,
1856
00:43:20.750 --> 00:43:22.699
show.com and Senate Fantasy.com.
1857
00:43:23.199 --> 00:43:23.330
Uh,
1858
00:43:23.449 --> 00:43:24.629
let's show the leaderboard here real quick.
1859
00:43:24.729 --> 00:43:24.810
Uh,
1860
00:43:24.889 --> 00:43:25.399
what do we have,
1861
00:43:25.409 --> 00:43:25.790
uh,
1862
00:43:26.770 --> 00:43:28.149
on the leaderboard if we could.
1863
00:43:28.610 --> 00:43:28.679
Uh,
1864
00:43:28.719 --> 00:43:29.050
there it is.
1865
00:43:29.159 --> 00:43:29.489
Uh,
1866
00:43:29.610 --> 00:43:29.919
number 1,
1867
00:43:30.050 --> 00:43:32.360
bring back the Redskins is the team name.
1868
00:43:32.570 --> 00:43:33.250
I think if they win,
1869
00:43:33.330 --> 00:43:35.290
we have to actually bring back the Washington Redskins.
1870
00:43:35.360 --> 00:43:36.149
No more commanders.
1871
00:43:36.399 --> 00:43:36.649
Uh,
1872
00:43:36.729 --> 00:43:37.639
what else do we have here?
1873
00:43:37.729 --> 00:43:38.290
Uh,
1874
00:43:38.399 --> 00:43:39.649
it's totally Stu's coping team,
1875
00:43:39.729 --> 00:43:40.770
definitely not Stu Bergeer.
1876
00:43:41.370 --> 00:43:42.110
Uh,
1877
00:43:42.360 --> 00:43:44.270
Dave Landau for president at number 12,
1878
00:43:44.350 --> 00:43:44.479
uh,
1879
00:43:44.580 --> 00:43:44.929
Adam,
1880
00:43:45.010 --> 00:43:45.590
our producer,
1881
00:43:45.649 --> 00:43:46.209
number 13,
1882
00:43:46.290 --> 00:43:47.070
very frustrating.
1883
00:43:47.489 --> 00:43:47.560
No,
1884
00:43:47.649 --> 00:43:47.729
oh,
1885
00:43:47.770 --> 00:43:47.939
actually,
1886
00:43:48.129 --> 00:43:49.209
New Zealand is fake,
1887
00:43:49.330 --> 00:43:50.489
which is an interesting statement.
1888
00:43:51.189 --> 00:43:51.560
Uh,
1889
00:43:51.870 --> 00:43:52.790
I don't know if that's true or not.
1890
00:43:53.030 --> 00:43:53.149
Uh,
1891
00:43:53.199 --> 00:43:53.590
that's there.
1892
00:43:53.649 --> 00:43:53.830
And then,
1893
00:43:53.870 --> 00:43:54.020
uh,
1894
00:43:54.110 --> 00:43:54.229
uh,
1895
00:43:54.330 --> 00:43:55.350
16 is PMT.
1896
00:43:55.429 --> 00:43:56.629
We gotta notify that.
1897
00:43:56.810 --> 00:43:57.260
Jeb is a mess.
1898
00:43:57.300 --> 00:43:58.570
He's at number 16 on the whole list.
1899
00:43:58.979 --> 00:43:59.979
That's available now to you,
1900
00:44:00.080 --> 00:44:00.229
uh,
1901
00:44:00.310 --> 00:44:03.530
you can win free money and join us at senatefantasy.com.
1902
00:44:03.709 --> 00:44:04.580
It's all the time we have.
1903
00:44:04.790 --> 00:44:05.350
We'll see you later.