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All right, quick intro before we jump into this week's episode.
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This week is a bit of a continuation.
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Colin and I were talking about recently, everything that's been going on with Epic, Disney, all the noise in the market right now, we keep coming back to the same idea.
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And it's not really about games, it's more about systems and how they're designed, what they incentivize, and what happens when those start systems start to break or behave exactly as they were designed to.
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And funny enough, it hit me this week at a completely different place.
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I put up a post on LinkedIn about my son.
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We were on spring break.
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He's about to terminate, and we've been working through some ADHD and screens issues, all of it.
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It compounds on vacation, so it's top of mind.
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And what we've been noticing is once a screens start for the day, things can flip fast.
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Mood, behavior, everything.
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Whether the screen is always introduced or sometimes just a flip.
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And we're trying to figure out how to deal with this in real time in different types of approaches by either removing screens, how do we bring them back, how do we incentivize the time, how do we how do we warn it and let it stick at everything you'd expect.
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And my wife finally kind of stopped and asked me, we talk with custom safety teams in gaming all the time.
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Does this ever come up?
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And I didn't really have a clear answer.
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And the more I thought about it, it actually does because whether it's a kid on an iPad or millions of players in a live game, or the company of like Epic making big bets, you're dealing with the same core thing.
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Systems, what are you optimizing for?
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What behaviors are you reinforcing?
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And what happens when those loops get really good at what they do?
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And this is actually something that Lewis put out last week, breaking down GDC's 2026 riot game with Stone Labrandy in game design.
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We put a post on there, you can check it out at Player Code.
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And one of the big ideas was that great game design isn't just about adding more stuff, it's about understanding the underlying systems that drive player behavior and making those intentional.
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Not just what players can do, but what they're encouraged to do.
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And once you see that, you can't really unsee it.
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You start seeing it everywhere.
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If you look at Fortnite, Epic, everything happening there, and yeah, you can debate strategy, the layoffs, the bets, but underneath it, it's a system that worked incredibly well for a long time.
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And now it's shifting.
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Same thing with Disney.
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Incredible at IP, storytelling, building worlds.
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But then you look at the actual experience and you're like, wait, why does this feel so fragmented?
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Again, systems.
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I don't think we're talking about that enough in games.
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We talk about the content, we talk about the features, we talk about the launches, but underneath it all, it's the real game.
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That's the player behavior, that's retention, that's the community, and that's the trust.
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And we just wrapped up our latest workshop with Community Cloudbuster at community building the other day.
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And day zero design.
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And honestly, it's the same theme again.
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You can't just add this stuff later on.
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The system into a strategy.
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So that's kind of where my headset is this week.
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Half parenting, half games, all the same problems.
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Curious on what you think.
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Let us know.
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Stop by our Discord.
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It's been growing.
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You can check it out at player driven.io.
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We're gonna jump to this conversation now with Colin and I, where we're breaking down the Disney Epic conversation and is there a potential uh acquisition going on here?
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So let's get into it.
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What you've been talking about for weeks, like Epic Disney Blizzard.
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Like, oh all right, well, we we gotta film something here because we've been talking about this for how many weeks.
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Oh, yeah, the epic Disney stuff.
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Yeah, I mean, where do you start there?
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Uh well before that, it's funny because yeah, I have been on the uh subbox that Disney should buy Blizzard for a while.
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I mean, I think I first told you that as I came to the idea that it's a really good idea, or someone did.
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Who knows?
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It's a good idea.
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I to I commandeered in Randall.
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They're like, it's a great idea.
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They should buy Blizzard, that's the one.
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And I still feel it fairly strongly.
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That should be the one.
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If they're actually looking to try to buy a gaming asset, then something like Blizzard.
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Like, how do I like package up Blizzard?
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They have IP, it's like Disney's good.
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Like Disney's whole flywheel is you take a piece of IP and you expand it into parks and TV shows and movies and merchandise, and they all kind of feed each other in a flywheel.
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Like the there's that picture you should look it up for the uh for the pot or for the content.
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Like there's that Walt Disney picture where he just drew out a little flywheel, right?
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And that's like the core of the business.
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That's like their core competency is the flywheel.
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And like Blizzard fits the flywheel because you have multiple franchises.
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And I when I try to give him the Blizzard, I try to think of like what's not hard R.
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Like, oh, they should buy Take Two Interactive.
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Like, ha, yeah, that'll never happen because Grand Theft Auto is as great of a purchase as it would be.
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Um, it doesn't make no sense with Disney.
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It's not family enough, right?
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It's not even something you could put a coat of paint on and make it family.
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Where you look at Blizzard and you're like, eh, outside Diablo and parts of StarCraft, you're like, yeah, good work, right?
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Good work, right?
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It could it's a fantasy, it's a sci-fi, right?
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It's a dark fantasy, uh, and then it's Overwatch, which is just bubblegum pop, anyways.
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And it's like those things kind of all make sense in like how Disney could apply its expansionary tactics to those IP and make them bigger than they are, and they're pretty big, right?
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Um, like I go Disney, World of Warcraft world at Shanghai, Disney would do monster numbers, like that would be a big, big thing.
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And they have the real estate to plop in a world of warcraft world, right?
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So, and world of warcraft is massive in China, so as there's a lot of Blizzard IP.
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So you can to me already kind of like that that makes sense, but it's not the only one.
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I mean, you could look at like Bethesda and you're like, I guess they could take that um and do something with it.
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Um, but like to me, like what makes a good gaming acquisition for Disney is do they have IP?
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Oh, yes or no?
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Is that IP already tied up in other films?
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No or yes.
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And then based on those two questions, like, and could they turn that into something bigger?
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Like, do they already have like strategic foothold in parts of the world that would be advantageous to Disney?
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And I think yes, for like something like Blizzard.
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So check these boxes, or I'm like, oh, and then they just happen to be Nervine down the street from Disneyland, like they're in the same market as corporate Disney.
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So like it's not it's not too crazy to think, like, oh, that could be something like there.
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So that's that's how I come to the Blizzard of it all.
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But like epic games, man.
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I know we're gonna probably disagree on that, but I just like bang my head in the wall.
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Like I literally wrote my patch notes last week after the layoffs, and I I hope my through line made sense for people.
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I was like, yeah, I'm gonna tie this Nintendo nonsense again.
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Like people just going, oh gosh, Nintendo, what are they doing?
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I cannot believe they're not gonna sell as much hardware.
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They're pulling back.
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This thing that came out from Bloomberg, and I was like, I mean, and other people kind of pounced on it before I did, like literally, everyone was like, What are they talking about over there?
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This is a bad piece.
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Um, and I did too, but I kind of like tied it to the Epic because every everyone doesn't say the same thing about Epic, right?
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Epic gets cheered no matter what they do, like, oh man, congratulations, we laid off another thousand employees.
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What a nice compensation package you gave to them on the way out of the door.
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And I was like, What?
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You gotta be kidding me.
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Thousand people just lost their jobs because because of dumb mistakes, or or like we'll call mistakes, but we were on that costly choices, anyways.
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You jump in, man.
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What do you think about the blizzard stuff first?
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And then we'll jump in the epic stuff.
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I mean, the blizzard stuff makes sense to me.
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I still don't necessarily agree with it per se, but that's not on the table now, right?
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Like your blizzard dream of being acquired by Disney is more and more fading away because it's becoming the banana, whatever it's named Peely and something Jones, whoever those characters from Fortnite are, right?
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Like, I don't I you know this this whole week or month, I don't know what we want to call whatever Epic is going through, is not a pretty period for Epic.
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But the truth is no game is forever, right?
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Eventually you start to slow down, and that's what Epic is seeing.
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Is it bad decisions?
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No, I think it's just kind of aging up, and not aging up, but everyone growing up, everyone starting to move on to other things.
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And they did make some bad bets.
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They bet on UEFN completing with competing with Roblox, but they lost that.
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They uh they bet on a lot of this stuff with Disney, and that's starting to come to fruition, whatever it is, right?
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And we're starting to see it.
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I don't, you know, and then Epic had the issue with the layoffs, right?
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And this guy who was sick, which Tim didn't know this stuff when these were layoffs were happening.
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It sucks, but that's kind of what's happening.
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And Fortnite is losing an engagement, and we've been talking about that for weeks as well, right?
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So I think we're at a point where people are kind of grasping for star straws, and Disney had a bad time with Zora, they put a lot of money into this.
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It's like, all right, well, that blew up in our face.
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Now let's look at Epic because things are working there.
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But those are kind of uh, you don't catch a falling knife.
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That's something people say a lot, right?
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And I feel like Epic's kind of a falling knife right now.
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I'm not saying they can't rebound from this, but I think this is a way of someone trying to stir up some controversies, trying to stir up some engagement, trying to do something to get it on the radar.
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Because to your point, I don't think it makes sense.
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I I don't think Disney necessarily wants Epic.
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I don't think it makes sense.
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I think, yeah, you can do a few fun things in the park.
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And the other point, which is a whole nother thing, is the technology.
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I mean, uh, Unreal Engine is a monster engine in gaming and it's a triple A masterpiece, right?
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That's what people do.
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And if Disney were to take control of this and technology, that's like, where does that go?
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It's a staying open source engine.
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Does it still get this uh the love that it's feeling and stuff like that?
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It's a lot of weird questions.
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Yeah, let me let me let me parse that.
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I agree with a lot of what you said.
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So I'll just tackle it one by one.
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First off, Epic kind of randomly in the situation they're in, is I think the best myth at him Swinny's told.
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Like, you know, he he specifically made choices, and they might be good choices for the industry, but they have consequences for his company that his employees are paying for, not him.
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He chose to go to war with Apple at the peak of his powers at Fortnite to like kind of reach.
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He chose that.
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Now he knew what he was doing because literally the day he kind of put the kind of store-in-a-store thing, right?
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When he basically went out and fingerpoint pointed in the face of uh Apple and you know went against the terms of services, they had like a 1984 Mac commercial knockoff, like ready to go.
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Like they launched that NFR campaign.
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So he knew what he was doing, right?
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So this wasn't a surprise of what the outcome was, right?
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So they get stripped from the Apple store, the iOS store, and then I I believe Google Play too, but I can't confirm it.
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But definitely iOS, right?
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So why does that matter?
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Well, iOS has a billion users, and not only are they the billion users, they're the billion most wealthy users in the world, probably speaking, right?
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They spend the most money on games.
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So you took your game off the largest distribution platform for games with the most lucrative user base.
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That was a choice.
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And he did not get back to the Apple store until the court forced it in like five years later.
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So you lost five years of compounding money, compounding fan growth, compounding everything.
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Just like your firm K compounds, so does everything else in gaming, and you just took it away for five years.
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So you just lost the growth.
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You can't get that back.
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That's just an opportunity cost, right?
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That's one.
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So in that time, which I wrote about, the rise of roblox just coincidentally happened at the same time.
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Are these two things correlated to each other?
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I would say yes, but I would say correlation is causality.
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But like the rise of robots came on the back of and the death of Fortnite, and maybe that was always gonna happen, but definitely was helped by the fact that it weren't iOS, but you know what was Roblox.
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The Roblox came in during COVID and took its place, right?
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That's just basically what happened.
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Um, and took a share of its audience away.
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Um, so that happened, and okay, and then the other thing that happened during that time period was ATT.
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So I talk about this all the time.
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Apple transparency and Apple's ad transparency and tracking.
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Um, basically where you they made it really hard to do advertising, right?
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Because it became probabilistic um targeting instead of deterministic.
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Probabilistic meaning a random subset of users.
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We can't determine if they are actually the person we think they are, but we have so much data we can get within a high percentage of their likely that person.
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That's like how targeting is now, but it's very expensive, and you have to have a lot of data.
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Deterministic is what it was before, where you could just buy the user data.
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Like, I know who this person is, I'm just gonna chase around with mobile ads everywhere to acquire them in my mobile app.
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That's how mobile apping, the gaming ecosystem really grew, and that's how it's all cratered since that that happened.
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So that got that went into effect during the um during the blackout period for Fortnite.
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And so when they came back, and if they saw all these users and come back, it's gonna be like, no, you're gonna have to acquire them, they're gonna be a lot more expensive now than they were five years ago.
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So they just came into a very, very different market on UA side.
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And then during this, like, you know, this uh while Tim Sweeney's putting a lot of money in the lawyers and everything else, like you they did a layoff of 800 people, and then they did a layoff of a thousand people.
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So he himself is not paying the cost, he himself is buying force in other parts, you know, right to save the environment.
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Like, I'm I'm not okay, great, but you know, who's losing their jobs?
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The people underneath them at Epic, and that sucks.
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And so um, I think I always say two things can be true.
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I'm not saying he's a bad person, I'm saying no, what he does for the industry is great for medium and small developers as they try to like build on the Apple iOS ecosystem.
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I think what he did for them was great, you know, for their businesses, but the consequences were being felt by his employees at his business, and that sucks.
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So I think two things can be true at the same time.
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So this is the way they became the falling knife because they've been they've been on a downward slope because of all these things since that moment in time.
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And why would Disney buy something where I think they're getting the value out of it they need?
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They put a billion and a half in it, they get to have all the Star Wars characters in there, all those you know, Disney characters in there.
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Um, they get a look at the books.
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Um, they probably get paid or they were getting paid for the licensing deal.
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Maybe they're not anymore.
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I don't know, but like they're already there, they're already getting the brand exposure they need with their IP as much as they want it to be, right?
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So they already have that lever, they're already executing that lever.
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And okay, so if their stuff's already experienced being experienced inside of worlds and epic based on the deal they have now, what else would they be getting out of this if they were to own the whole thing?
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And that's where I'm like, there's no there's no theme park being built on Fortnite.
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I'm sorry to people who think there is, there's just not, right?
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I don't see this ever happening.
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I would nor would people care.
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Um, and I'm gonna use my very unscientific look at the Lego section when I go to Lego and they have a Fortnite, it's in the back of the corner because I don't think they're very popular sets, the Fortnite gaming sets.
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Pokemon's in the front, Star Wars is in the front.
00:14:03.840 --> 00:14:06.480
Like it's just eh, it's fine, right?
00:14:06.559 --> 00:14:11.679
It's not like a terrible thing, but I don't think they have that core passion that say other IP has.
00:14:11.759 --> 00:14:13.600
And like you're commenting, like all the IPs forever.
00:14:13.679 --> 00:14:15.440
Well, World of Warcraft seemingly forever.
00:14:15.600 --> 00:14:34.559
And so they had their ceiling, they're far from that ceiling, but they hit their floor and they have like generations on generations of people playing this game as it goes on for literally 20 plus years, and that is the OG of life service, not as sexy as say Fortnite because it's not new, but it doesn't need to be new, it just needs to be harvested for expansion and other medium.
00:14:34.639 --> 00:14:42.399
And they tried to do this themselves and failed because the world the warcraft movie I effectively just didn't do what it's supposed to do to drive more fans.
00:14:42.639 --> 00:14:45.519
So let Disney have a crack at it, would be my put my point.
00:14:45.600 --> 00:14:46.960
Uh, at least on them.
00:14:47.279 --> 00:14:49.440
So, and then that last bit is like the Unreal thing.
00:14:49.519 --> 00:14:52.960
That's the other thing that people have come at me with like, oh, but Unreal Engine, what a great technology.
00:14:53.120 --> 00:14:56.080
Again, I'm I'm at Alani at Disney.
00:14:56.480 --> 00:14:59.360
I'm gonna tell you my Disney experience from a technology perspective.
00:14:59.519 --> 00:15:00.879
I have to log in.
00:15:01.200 --> 00:15:03.919
So my my my my my uh I'm here with my family.
00:15:04.000 --> 00:15:12.320
So my mother, who uh was gracious to kind of get all this together, um, got the photo pass, right, for us to save all our photos from no matter what photographer we have.
00:15:12.480 --> 00:15:18.320
You have to run that through your Disneyland app, not your Disney Alani app, not your Disney Plus app, your Disneyland app.
00:15:18.399 --> 00:15:19.519
Does that make intuitive sense?
00:15:19.679 --> 00:15:20.320
Absolutely not.
00:15:20.480 --> 00:15:25.679
But your photos have to go through the Disneyland app because there's a there's an app for every park.
00:15:26.240 --> 00:15:28.000
There's not one super app for all parks.
00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:30.159
There's an app for Disney World, there's an app for Disneyland.
00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:36.159
I'm sure there's an app for Disney Shanghai, there's an app for Disney Hong Kong, and like Tokyo, Disney at Sea or whatever they call it, right?
00:15:36.240 --> 00:15:39.279
There's a Disney Paris, there's a Disney Play app for everything, right?
00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:40.000
That's my guess.
00:15:40.080 --> 00:15:43.039
Um, so that we have to run our photos through the Disneyland app.
00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:44.000
Okay, all right.
00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:46.000
The Lani app is how we purchase things.
00:15:46.159 --> 00:15:46.960
Okay, that's fine.
00:15:47.120 --> 00:15:58.000
Um, but and then the last one is by Disney Plus, which is like the if they really did all have one singular CRM, then it should know when I walk into the hotel room that I am who I am.
00:15:58.159 --> 00:16:01.600
I have a Disney Plus app and auto log me into Disney Plus on my TV.
00:16:01.679 --> 00:16:07.519
So when I turn it on, that's the first screen I see is a Disney Plus app, and we just watch Bluey or whatever we're gonna put on, right?
00:16:07.600 --> 00:16:08.240
For the kids.
00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:10.159
So, but that's not how it works.
00:16:10.240 --> 00:16:16.320
I have to do the dull screen CRM, scan the QR code on my TV, like the whole thing as if I'm in like a normal room.
00:16:16.559 --> 00:16:23.120
Um, this is Disney trying to monetize what it already does via technology, and I would say they are terrible at it.
00:16:23.279 --> 00:16:25.759
Um it's not a technology company.
00:16:25.840 --> 00:16:28.960
Um, they're really good at other things, and I don't think companies have to be good at everything.
00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:30.399
I think people could be bad at technology.
00:16:30.639 --> 00:16:34.080
Like, it's not our main cup of tea, it's not, it's our it's our core company.
00:16:34.320 --> 00:16:34.879
We're not good at this.
00:16:35.039 --> 00:16:38.320
Them owning Unreal Engine is like, what would they even do with it?
00:16:38.559 --> 00:16:42.240
Oh, they would use it to make movies and they would do all this infrastructure stuff.
00:16:42.320 --> 00:16:44.320
I'm like, is Disney an infrastructure company?
00:16:44.480 --> 00:16:56.639
Or is this just a bunch of executives that know how to turn uh a character that's on one type of medium into like whether books or whatever, into an animated TV show, movie franchise, Pink Park ride, etc.?
00:16:56.879 --> 00:16:58.000
Because that to me is the latter.
00:16:58.240 --> 00:16:59.279
They're they're good at that thing, right?
00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:00.159
That's what they're good at.
00:17:00.320 --> 00:17:10.400
Um, and them owning UE is like I uh I think UE would just die and another game engine would come, and that would just be trap and sucky for Unreal Engine, but that would probably be it.
00:17:10.480 --> 00:17:12.559
And they pay a lot of money for that experience in that ride.
00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:14.480
I just think I wouldn't do that if I were them.
00:17:14.559 --> 00:17:16.880
So that's what you said on the technology in Disney.
00:17:17.200 --> 00:17:18.559
You said so much there, right?
00:17:18.960 --> 00:17:21.039
And I think it all comes to an interesting discussion.
00:17:21.200 --> 00:17:25.599
I want to play devil's advocate with you, not saying I disagree with you, but let's start from high level, right?
00:17:25.680 --> 00:17:28.559
Uh Epic needs Disney more than Disney needs Epic, right?
00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:36.880
To your point, Disney could be like, you know what, I just want to take all my characters off your game, and Epic would be like, no, please don't what's Fortnite without the characters and IP, right?
00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:39.039
It's it makes sense, right?
00:17:39.359 --> 00:17:47.359
Um, and let's not discount what people have been saying about Unreal Engine over the past generation of UE5, saying the games look the same.
00:17:47.599 --> 00:17:50.799
It's becoming kind of you can tell a game by the look of the engine.
00:17:50.880 --> 00:17:53.519
And look at the AAA blockbusters that have been coming out this year.
00:17:53.759 --> 00:17:56.960
A lot of them are building their own custom engines or running on other infrastructure.
00:17:57.039 --> 00:18:01.440
And it's interesting to think does the UE engine still have the same pull that it used to have?
00:18:01.519 --> 00:18:07.359
And for the great many, yes, but you see the AAA games of today are having their custom built engines in.
00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:12.559
Uh, but the licensing thing is what always got me thinking, and I don't know anything about licensing or the cost of licensing.
00:18:12.640 --> 00:18:20.400
But when Iron Man or when when Avengers is throwing CGI into their movie and it costs so much money, who are they actually paying for that, right?
00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:22.720
Are they paying licensing costs to Unreal?
00:18:23.039 --> 00:18:23.200
Right.
00:18:23.279 --> 00:18:26.319
And in that case, maybe they want to buy the engine or sell the game.
00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:27.359
I I don't know, right?
00:18:27.440 --> 00:18:37.359
And I don't know how licensing costs, and maybe someone that's watching this can break it down a little bit, but like, you know, CGI always everyone complains that it's expensive and it might be getting cheaper, but where does that licensing cost come from?
00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:39.839
And does it make sense if that's what they want to do?
00:18:40.400 --> 00:18:45.440
Yeah, I I don't know enough about the CGE world to have like a strong take on that.
00:18:45.599 --> 00:18:51.200
I would suspect the the majority of costs that they do are the animators who make CGI sequences.
00:18:51.279 --> 00:18:58.000
So it's because it's so labor-intensive of humans and rendering and like retaking the shot and adding a certain thing in.
00:18:58.240 --> 00:19:00.720
I think that is the majority of the cost of stuff.
00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:04.000
And like I think that's where everyone assumes AI is gonna take over in Hollywood.
00:19:04.079 --> 00:19:06.799
It's like not the actors, not the all these things.
00:19:06.880 --> 00:19:11.200
It's gonna take over in the kind of the CG side because it's the well, it's where all the money goes.
00:19:11.279 --> 00:19:20.960
It's like, oh, we gotta pay all these humans across all these parts of the world to animate and add in the all these CG sequences on a frame-by-frame basis because nothing is practical anymore, right?
00:19:21.119 --> 00:19:25.599
So I I don't see how Unreal is makes it more automatable.
00:19:25.680 --> 00:19:31.359
I think it just kind of makes it, you know, it's an engine, sure, but like you still need humans, and I think that's just gonna come through automation.
00:19:31.440 --> 00:19:32.720
So I'm dubious.
00:19:32.799 --> 00:19:36.480
And it goes out of the last thing I think it needs to be said is like Epic would be really expensive.
00:19:36.559 --> 00:19:40.240
Like it's not like they get Epic for like four billion dollars, if uh, why not, right?
00:19:40.319 --> 00:19:42.000
Just go for it, like sure.
00:19:42.160 --> 00:19:46.079
Like, but that would be just a massive investment by Disney to buy Epic.
00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:53.440
That's like a prize that the price is so astronomically high, it would be so astronomically high for Disney relative to like their banger acquisitions, right?
00:19:53.599 --> 00:19:57.440
They bought what like Marvel for a couple billion, which is laughable now.
00:19:57.599 --> 00:20:00.319
Like I like they bought that, made a lot of money on that.
00:20:00.480 --> 00:20:02.480
Um, they bought Star Wars for like nine billion.
00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:04.559
Um, say what you will about the sequel trilogies.
00:20:04.640 --> 00:20:15.680
I'm on the I hate them camp, but like they they uh they still probably did find well enough, and uh and they've turned it into a good brand from brand extension on deep parks and stuff like that.
00:20:15.759 --> 00:20:18.240
Like people snipe at Galaxy's Edge, it's fine.
00:20:18.319 --> 00:20:19.920
I think people like going to Star Wars Land, right?
00:20:20.000 --> 00:20:21.599
So it it's working, right?
00:20:21.759 --> 00:20:22.319
Could it be better?
00:20:22.400 --> 00:20:23.440
Sure, but like could it's working.
00:20:23.599 --> 00:20:27.359
Pixar obviously they've made their money back and then some via that acquisition.
00:20:27.440 --> 00:20:35.200
So like to me, it's the price point, like it's the right price um that would justify the purchase.
00:20:35.279 --> 00:20:37.599
And I just think Epic would be wildly too expensive, right?
00:20:37.759 --> 00:20:41.839
And is Tencent gonna give up whatever cut they own of that company or to to Disney?
00:20:41.920 --> 00:20:42.559
Like, I don't know.
00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:46.400
Maybe Tencent wants to own their their share of Epic at this point, right?
00:20:46.559 --> 00:20:48.240
Maybe they want to buy Epic, right?
00:20:48.400 --> 00:20:54.160
Um, because they own, I don't think they own four, I think they've been diluted through the last few rounds of fundraising.
00:20:54.319 --> 00:20:56.799
But like, do they do they wanna like exit?
00:20:56.880 --> 00:20:58.160
I don't know, and so it's like Lego Group.
00:20:58.240 --> 00:21:03.599
Lego Group owns a sizable sum share of Disney as well, um, or sorry, of um Epic Games.
00:21:03.680 --> 00:21:05.039
And do they wanna leave?
00:21:05.200 --> 00:21:16.160
I mean, if they did, that's a big tell because they put a lot of effort into turning this uh Lego Unreal UEFN kind of experience into something more than what it is, which I think is kind of a dud.
00:21:16.240 --> 00:21:20.240
I still think Lego would be better served by a TT, but whatever, that's my two cents.
00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:21.920
Go save it for Morner Brothers.
00:21:22.160 --> 00:21:25.440
Um, um, yeah, I just I think the price is wrong.
00:21:25.519 --> 00:21:32.480
I didn't think the price would be astronomy expensive, and they shareholders of Disney would uh regret buying that for the price it would be kind of in at.
00:21:32.559 --> 00:21:34.000
Like people say, oh, it prints billions.
00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:37.359
I'm like, yeah, it would be cost of multiple on those billions, and it's declining.
00:21:37.440 --> 00:21:42.319
So, and I don't know if Disney's the right kind of company to figure out why it's declining and fix it.
00:21:42.400 --> 00:21:43.359
Like that would be my main thing.
00:21:43.440 --> 00:21:45.359
They're not, they're not they don't know games.
00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:52.160
Buying a gaming company in decline that they would have to turn around to justify the price they paid for it.
00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:56.240
I just don't know if they are the right suitor for Epic, if they were even on the block, and that's the thing.
00:21:56.319 --> 00:21:59.359
Tim does Tim Sweeney want to sell supermajority shares of Epic?
00:22:00.000 --> 00:22:00.640
I don't know.
00:22:00.880 --> 00:22:03.680
He seems pretty content where he's at right now.
00:22:03.920 --> 00:22:06.240
So well, that'd be my read.
00:22:06.559 --> 00:22:12.640
Let let's sum it up with the Batman Begins quote that I use on every episode that you either die a hero or you live long enough to become the villain.
00:22:12.799 --> 00:22:17.759
It's funny, as you were talking about this, I wanted to look up what were some of the worst acquisitions that were bad or for Disney.
00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:20.480
Would you have any guesses on the Maker Studios?
00:22:20.720 --> 00:22:21.759
Maker's number two.
00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:24.079
So they paid nothing for a dumb experience.
00:22:24.160 --> 00:22:29.119
I mean, so that that that would probably be why it was his not it didn't matter to the day because they didn't pay that much for it.
00:22:29.200 --> 00:22:31.039
But they bought content that they didn't own.
00:22:31.119 --> 00:22:32.559
They're people they spot they bought it from.
00:22:32.640 --> 00:22:36.240
I knew people at Maker at the time, and I was like, what are they buying from you guys?
00:22:36.400 --> 00:22:37.440
You don't own anything.
00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:45.440
You you you sign contracts with kids that oh that end after like a couple years, and they're like, uh so proven to be true.
00:22:45.680 --> 00:22:46.799
So that was number two.
00:22:47.279 --> 00:22:51.119
No guesses at number one or any other guesses of any other acquisitions.
00:22:52.079 --> 00:22:53.920
Gosh, is it the Fox acquisition?
00:22:54.240 --> 00:22:55.759
2019, 21st century Fox.
00:22:55.920 --> 00:22:56.400
And you know why?
00:22:56.480 --> 00:23:00.319
Because it's so expensive, and that's uh that's it, right?
00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:02.480
Like, what did they get out of it at the end of the day?
00:23:02.640 --> 00:23:08.160
I mean, I you they got FX, okay, um, which makes good shows for them.
00:23:08.319 --> 00:23:08.559
Cool.
00:23:08.640 --> 00:23:12.240
So they have like a quasi HBO like experience, but it's the price.
00:23:12.400 --> 00:23:19.440
They got the X-Men, which they have done nothing with besides Deadpool, um, which I think that's coming.
00:23:19.519 --> 00:23:21.920
No, it's coming, you're right, it's coming, but they have done nothing with it.
00:23:22.000 --> 00:23:26.480
They got the X-Men, which was only because Marvel sold the rights forever to Fox.
00:23:26.799 --> 00:23:31.680
Um, and I they got they got the alien movies, and yeah.
00:23:31.839 --> 00:23:39.200
Well, and they got the the alien franchise, and they've been doing like cool stuff with that since they finally figured out what to do with it with the predator movies, right?
00:23:39.279 --> 00:23:49.119
So, but they again, oh, and they got avatar, which I think probably but again, oh Avatar is a great acquisition, it makes a lot of money in the box office.
00:23:49.200 --> 00:23:51.200
They have multiple theme park extensions, what a good deal.
00:23:51.440 --> 00:24:06.960
I'm like, yeah, except they had Avatar Land before they bought Fox, and they the price of Fox was so expensive, they're gonna have to do so much Avatar stuff for so long to equal the share price or the equal the cost of what they paid Fox for that, if that's how you look at it, right?
00:24:07.119 --> 00:24:09.599
So that's that's that's interesting.
00:24:09.759 --> 00:24:11.039
That goes back to the point about Epic.
00:24:11.119 --> 00:24:18.799
You're looking at a similar price point for a similar outcome, which is like even if No, if you know what the price point was, I'll keep I'm looking at it right here.
00:24:18.960 --> 00:24:20.000
Not even close.
00:24:20.240 --> 00:24:22.400
I hope not even close, but it really messes.
00:24:22.720 --> 00:24:24.240
Epic, my guess is Epic would be.
00:24:24.400 --> 00:24:26.480
No, no, no, 21st century Fox.
00:24:26.799 --> 00:24:28.640
Oh, it's like 78 billion, right?
00:24:29.279 --> 00:24:30.640
All right, seven seventy-one.
00:24:31.279 --> 00:24:32.160
Okay, yeah, all right.
00:24:32.400 --> 00:24:35.519
You think Epic would no way Epic would pull that much money.
00:24:35.920 --> 00:24:40.319
I don't know nothing about the financial, so yeah, I usually, so I'll be guesswork.
00:24:41.279 --> 00:24:45.200
Yeah, like it's maybe it's 55, 55, I think.
00:24:45.440 --> 00:24:49.759
I would say up 50 billion, yeah.
00:24:50.720 --> 00:24:55.839
Up 50 billion, plus I my guess is if they were to sell, it'd be plus 50 billion.
00:24:56.000 --> 00:24:57.119
Um easy.
00:24:57.359 --> 00:24:57.759
I don't know.
00:24:57.839 --> 00:25:00.160
I don't know the fact that they're a private company, so you're just kind of guessing.
00:25:00.319 --> 00:25:05.200
You know, the tea leaves of announced fundraising that they do, but they don't announce the equity stake of these companies.
00:25:05.279 --> 00:25:12.480
Like there's reported that Tencent knows 40%, but like do they still get diluted by all the additional uh money that the Epic had to take in?
00:25:12.559 --> 00:25:13.359
Like, who knows, right?
00:25:13.599 --> 00:25:21.200
So you and I'm not in the private um startup market to have an understanding of like what the share prices go for and how many they're out there.
00:25:21.279 --> 00:25:22.000
So who knows?
00:25:22.160 --> 00:25:27.119
I'm gonna say EA's price points at the bar, it's like gonna be in that 50 plus billion space, right?
00:25:27.279 --> 00:25:29.200
Um and there'd be multiple spitters on it.
00:25:29.440 --> 00:25:31.519
Like the Saudi's would have been on Fortnite.
00:25:32.000 --> 00:25:38.000
It's important to talk about the last two that Gem and I decided to pull up as the worst acquisitions for Disney.
00:25:38.079 --> 00:25:45.279
So number three was Platum, so a failed social gaming company that failed to deliver high returns.
00:25:45.359 --> 00:25:48.079
That was in 500 for$563 million.
00:25:48.559 --> 00:25:53.759
And number four was one I've been talking about so much recently and it hurts my heart, but Club Penguin.
00:25:53.920 --> 00:25:55.920
I was gonna say Club Penguin with Chris.
00:25:56.079 --> 00:25:57.200
That's Chris's thing.
00:25:57.359 --> 00:25:59.200
Um$350 million.
00:25:59.599 --> 00:26:08.400
But that means three out of the four that Google chose to show me were all gaming companies, which might mean that maybe Disney should not think about acquiring Epic.
00:26:09.519 --> 00:26:14.880
Unless they can like literally sit in a room and whiteboard what the flywheel would be and be honest with themselves on that.
00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:16.000
That's that's what I would say.
00:26:16.079 --> 00:26:30.880
Like, if you can tell me that they can find a gaming company that has enough IP, like I, you know, I would say this makes sense to me personally, but if they went after Ubisoft for the same logic that I applied to Blizzard, I'd be like, okay, I guess.
00:26:31.039 --> 00:26:34.480
Because you have Assassins, you have Far Cry, the Tom Clancy stuff.
00:26:34.559 --> 00:26:42.079
Like, you can see the IP there, and you're probably getting a discount relative to where Ubisoft is right now, but you can make it make sense.
00:26:42.160 --> 00:26:49.279
Like, okay, there's IP there, they could bring it back into the Disney fold, and they can turn it into um experiences outside of video games.
00:26:49.440 --> 00:26:53.519
Like, it to me, the math is like, do they have IP that Disney tanked?
00:26:53.759 --> 00:26:57.759
IP that has um that has value to gamers that they could turn into something else.
00:26:57.920 --> 00:27:09.599
What would scare them from Ubisoft is the Assassin's Creed movie tanked and the um Prince of Persian movie tanked that I think they did, so that probably scares them away from Ubisoft and like, oh, we don't want any of that smoke, right?
00:27:09.759 --> 00:27:14.480
Um, and it's you know seen as a declining asset faster than the other one.
00:27:14.640 --> 00:27:18.240
So like I don't know, but like I would play that kind of game with different gaming companies.
00:27:18.319 --> 00:27:19.359
Like, do they own an IP?
00:27:19.440 --> 00:27:23.519
Yeah, at least it's licensing the IP, doesn't make sense for us, etc.
00:27:23.680 --> 00:27:24.000
etc.
00:27:24.240 --> 00:27:24.559
Right.
00:27:24.880 --> 00:27:27.039
First of all, Epic's gonna be at a discount soon.
00:27:27.359 --> 00:27:29.920
Ubisoft's probably at a really high discount right now.
00:27:30.079 --> 00:27:31.039
The IPs that you have.
00:27:31.200 --> 00:27:33.680
I mean, Ubisoft is a sexy profile, right?
00:27:33.759 --> 00:27:34.720
With Tom Clancy.
00:27:35.119 --> 00:27:38.640
I mean, you can go back to the heydays uh uh of what Rayman.
00:27:39.519 --> 00:27:41.599
Right, like they built what gaming is today, right?
00:27:41.680 --> 00:27:47.680
They built Siege, and I feel like Siege was that first online game that really like built a whole generation of new players, right?
00:27:47.759 --> 00:27:54.720
You got Assassin's Creed that built players, the division that built kind of the extraction shooter uh kind of in a way genre.
00:27:54.799 --> 00:28:00.720
So I think you can go back to classic Ubisoft and say, hey, we can revive some of these and do something with it, but I don't know.
00:28:00.880 --> 00:28:02.720
Gaming industry is weird recently.
00:28:03.039 --> 00:28:06.960
Yeah, well, hey man, um, this is probably the most I'll talk about epics.
00:28:07.119 --> 00:28:16.319
I appreciate this because I don't know if I'll write about it, and all else to say is all speculative right now, but it would have been the topic of my newsletter had I been writing it this week, but I'm not, so it will not.
00:28:16.720 --> 00:28:18.079
Anything else big in your radar?
00:28:18.400 --> 00:28:21.359
You know, I feel I'm gonna I'm gonna probably play Crimson Desert in the back.
00:28:21.519 --> 00:28:25.119
I'm playing Pocopia still, so um that's the game.
00:28:25.200 --> 00:28:26.640
Um that I'm that Mr.
00:28:26.880 --> 00:28:29.359
Mime video you shared, by the way, was fantastic.
00:28:29.519 --> 00:28:35.119
Like uh that game is fascinating to watch, and it's it's starting to infiltrate my feed.
00:28:35.279 --> 00:28:39.279
I haven't played it yet, obviously, but it's infiltrating my feed, which I find fascinating.
00:28:39.359 --> 00:28:43.119
I mean, I know I'm talking about, but every feed recently is things that people are doing in there.
00:28:43.200 --> 00:28:45.200
I'm like oh my gosh, that Mr.
00:28:45.359 --> 00:28:46.160
Mind video is great.
00:28:46.319 --> 00:28:51.039
Um that's the like I think it's the most it's a series of them that keep getting more elaborate where they put them.
00:28:51.200 --> 00:29:03.039
Like the first one, let's say they just buried him in a ditch, and then they just put the blocks on top of him so he couldn't get out, and they just and they just blow check on him after a few days, is he still in the ditch, and then then they went out and built him a maximum security prison to put him in.
00:29:03.119 --> 00:29:04.000
I just funny.
00:29:04.160 --> 00:29:14.720
Um again, it says Minecraft with Pokemon in it, so you your imagination is like not just with the blocks, but then the blocks have creatures that all have distinct personalities that you could put them wherever, right?
00:29:14.799 --> 00:29:16.319
And like and interact with them anyway.
00:29:16.400 --> 00:29:17.519
So that's the magic of that game.
00:29:17.759 --> 00:29:18.240
You know what?
00:29:18.319 --> 00:29:23.680
I would say this I think like we're gonna look at this year as like one of the biggest games of like big gaming years.
00:29:23.759 --> 00:29:31.119
Like, I was I was talking to uh people on like I'm like, assume that Grand Theft Addos 6 is great and it comes out this year, so let's assume that.
00:29:31.359 --> 00:29:35.519
Like, and people are very, very passionate about Crimson Desert who are into that.
00:29:35.680 --> 00:29:39.920
Then like um, of course we don't have to go down the whole Metacritic rabbit hole.
00:29:40.079 --> 00:29:44.640
And and then you have uh Pocopia, like it's a really good year in games already.
00:29:44.720 --> 00:29:46.640
And never mind, Resident Evil was a massive success.
00:29:46.720 --> 00:29:50.480
I'm like, man, is this gonna be like looked back as like one of the landmark years of gaming?
00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:51.680
It kind of feels like it.
00:29:51.759 --> 00:29:53.440
Um, and we're only in the spring.
00:29:53.519 --> 00:29:54.559
Um, we shall see.
00:29:54.640 --> 00:29:58.960
Like it depends on how certain things hit, like Wolverine, I think, is a big critical piece of it.
00:29:59.119 --> 00:30:01.200
Um, but I don't know, man.
00:30:01.359 --> 00:30:06.480
It feels like it, and it's not, it's uh yeah, Grand Theft Battle 6 is a big component of it.
00:30:06.559 --> 00:30:09.359
But like I just think we're gonna look back and think, wow, what a year in games.
00:30:09.519 --> 00:30:17.920
Um so good year for games, a bad year if you're buying a game console because those prices are going up, but at least you're getting good games now.
00:30:18.559 --> 00:30:20.480
That's where we're gonna wrap up today's episode.
00:30:20.559 --> 00:30:22.720
For those of you listening, we appreciate you joining.
00:30:22.799 --> 00:30:27.839
Make sure you follow playerdriven.io, find out the latest content that we are putting out there.
00:30:28.000 --> 00:30:30.480
Let us know the games that you're playing and what excites you.
00:30:30.799 --> 00:30:32.400
We are always talking in our Discord.
00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:34.559
You can check it out if you visit our website.
00:30:34.640 --> 00:30:37.680
Uh our Discord is just starting to pop, so check it out there.
00:30:37.839 --> 00:30:39.359
And wait till we come back next week.
00:30:39.440 --> 00:30:40.799
We're gonna be talking with App Charge.
00:30:40.880 --> 00:30:44.240
I do cool direct to consumer payment type stuff, and it's gonna be a great episode.
00:30:44.319 --> 00:30:45.200
So we'll catch you soon.
00:30:45.359 --> 00:30:45.519
Bye.
00:00:02.799 --> 00:00:05.759
All right, quick intro before we jump into this week's episode.
00:00:06.000 --> 00:00:07.679
This week is a bit of a continuation.
00:00:07.919 --> 00:00:15.439
Colin and I were talking about recently, everything that's been going on with Epic, Disney, all the noise in the market right now, we keep coming back to the same idea.
00:00:15.599 --> 00:00:25.280
And it's not really about games, it's more about systems and how they're designed, what they incentivize, and what happens when those start systems start to break or behave exactly as they were designed to.
00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:28.000
And funny enough, it hit me this week at a completely different place.
00:00:28.320 --> 00:00:30.399
I put up a post on LinkedIn about my son.
00:00:30.640 --> 00:00:31.519
We were on spring break.
00:00:31.679 --> 00:00:37.119
He's about to terminate, and we've been working through some ADHD and screens issues, all of it.
00:00:38.240 --> 00:00:40.880
It compounds on vacation, so it's top of mind.
00:00:40.960 --> 00:00:45.200
And what we've been noticing is once a screens start for the day, things can flip fast.
00:00:45.679 --> 00:00:47.359
Mood, behavior, everything.
00:00:47.520 --> 00:00:50.640
Whether the screen is always introduced or sometimes just a flip.
00:00:50.719 --> 00:01:03.520
And we're trying to figure out how to deal with this in real time in different types of approaches by either removing screens, how do we bring them back, how do we incentivize the time, how do we how do we warn it and let it stick at everything you'd expect.
00:01:03.679 --> 00:01:09.599
And my wife finally kind of stopped and asked me, we talk with custom safety teams in gaming all the time.
00:01:09.840 --> 00:01:10.799
Does this ever come up?
00:01:10.959 --> 00:01:12.400
And I didn't really have a clear answer.
00:01:12.560 --> 00:01:24.480
And the more I thought about it, it actually does because whether it's a kid on an iPad or millions of players in a live game, or the company of like Epic making big bets, you're dealing with the same core thing.
00:01:24.719 --> 00:01:26.799
Systems, what are you optimizing for?
00:01:26.959 --> 00:01:29.200
What behaviors are you reinforcing?
00:01:29.280 --> 00:01:32.560
And what happens when those loops get really good at what they do?
00:01:32.879 --> 00:01:41.280
And this is actually something that Lewis put out last week, breaking down GDC's 2026 riot game with Stone Labrandy in game design.
00:01:41.359 --> 00:01:43.599
We put a post on there, you can check it out at Player Code.
00:01:43.920 --> 00:01:55.920
And one of the big ideas was that great game design isn't just about adding more stuff, it's about understanding the underlying systems that drive player behavior and making those intentional.
00:01:56.480 --> 00:01:59.760
Not just what players can do, but what they're encouraged to do.
00:01:59.920 --> 00:02:02.239
And once you see that, you can't really unsee it.
00:02:02.319 --> 00:02:03.599
You start seeing it everywhere.
00:02:03.840 --> 00:02:14.560
If you look at Fortnite, Epic, everything happening there, and yeah, you can debate strategy, the layoffs, the bets, but underneath it, it's a system that worked incredibly well for a long time.
00:02:15.120 --> 00:02:16.560
And now it's shifting.
00:02:17.039 --> 00:02:18.240
Same thing with Disney.
00:02:18.479 --> 00:02:21.919
Incredible at IP, storytelling, building worlds.
00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:28.240
But then you look at the actual experience and you're like, wait, why does this feel so fragmented?
00:02:28.479 --> 00:02:29.759
Again, systems.
00:02:30.080 --> 00:02:32.080
I don't think we're talking about that enough in games.
00:02:32.400 --> 00:02:38.479
We talk about the content, we talk about the features, we talk about the launches, but underneath it all, it's the real game.
00:02:38.719 --> 00:02:43.039
That's the player behavior, that's retention, that's the community, and that's the trust.
00:02:43.520 --> 00:02:48.639
And we just wrapped up our latest workshop with Community Cloudbuster at community building the other day.
00:02:48.879 --> 00:02:50.319
And day zero design.
00:02:50.400 --> 00:02:52.639
And honestly, it's the same theme again.
00:02:52.960 --> 00:02:55.919
You can't just add this stuff later on.
00:02:56.240 --> 00:02:57.919
The system into a strategy.
00:02:58.080 --> 00:03:00.000
So that's kind of where my headset is this week.
00:03:00.159 --> 00:03:02.479
Half parenting, half games, all the same problems.
00:03:02.960 --> 00:03:04.159
Curious on what you think.
00:03:04.319 --> 00:03:04.800
Let us know.
00:03:04.960 --> 00:03:05.840
Stop by our Discord.
00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:06.479
It's been growing.
00:03:06.560 --> 00:03:08.479
You can check it out at player driven.io.
00:03:08.960 --> 00:03:17.280
We're gonna jump to this conversation now with Colin and I, where we're breaking down the Disney Epic conversation and is there a potential uh acquisition going on here?
00:03:17.439 --> 00:03:18.879
So let's get into it.
00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:25.759
What you've been talking about for weeks, like Epic Disney Blizzard.
00:03:25.919 --> 00:03:30.479
Like, oh all right, well, we we gotta film something here because we've been talking about this for how many weeks.
00:03:30.879 --> 00:03:33.439
Oh, yeah, the epic Disney stuff.
00:03:33.599 --> 00:03:35.280
Yeah, I mean, where do you start there?
00:03:35.439 --> 00:03:40.639
Uh well before that, it's funny because yeah, I have been on the uh subbox that Disney should buy Blizzard for a while.
00:03:40.800 --> 00:03:45.199
I mean, I think I first told you that as I came to the idea that it's a really good idea, or someone did.
00:03:45.360 --> 00:03:45.840
Who knows?
00:03:46.000 --> 00:03:46.639
It's a good idea.
00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:48.400
I to I commandeered in Randall.
00:03:48.479 --> 00:03:49.360
They're like, it's a great idea.
00:03:49.439 --> 00:03:51.199
They should buy Blizzard, that's the one.
00:03:51.599 --> 00:03:53.120
And I still feel it fairly strongly.
00:03:53.199 --> 00:03:53.919
That should be the one.
00:03:54.000 --> 00:03:57.439
If they're actually looking to try to buy a gaming asset, then something like Blizzard.
00:03:57.680 --> 00:03:59.360
Like, how do I like package up Blizzard?
00:03:59.439 --> 00:04:01.039
They have IP, it's like Disney's good.
00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:10.400
Like Disney's whole flywheel is you take a piece of IP and you expand it into parks and TV shows and movies and merchandise, and they all kind of feed each other in a flywheel.
00:04:10.479 --> 00:04:14.000
Like the there's that picture you should look it up for the uh for the pot or for the content.
00:04:14.159 --> 00:04:17.519
Like there's that Walt Disney picture where he just drew out a little flywheel, right?
00:04:17.600 --> 00:04:18.879
And that's like the core of the business.
00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:21.199
That's like their core competency is the flywheel.
00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:25.519
And like Blizzard fits the flywheel because you have multiple franchises.
00:04:25.839 --> 00:04:30.639
And I when I try to give him the Blizzard, I try to think of like what's not hard R.
00:04:30.959 --> 00:04:33.199
Like, oh, they should buy Take Two Interactive.
00:04:33.360 --> 00:04:38.720
Like, ha, yeah, that'll never happen because Grand Theft Auto is as great of a purchase as it would be.
00:04:38.959 --> 00:04:41.040
Um, it doesn't make no sense with Disney.
00:04:41.120 --> 00:04:42.480
It's not family enough, right?
00:04:42.560 --> 00:04:45.600
It's not even something you could put a coat of paint on and make it family.
00:04:45.759 --> 00:04:53.040
Where you look at Blizzard and you're like, eh, outside Diablo and parts of StarCraft, you're like, yeah, good work, right?
00:04:53.199 --> 00:04:53.920
Good work, right?
00:04:54.000 --> 00:04:56.959
It could it's a fantasy, it's a sci-fi, right?
00:04:57.120 --> 00:05:01.759
It's a dark fantasy, uh, and then it's Overwatch, which is just bubblegum pop, anyways.
00:05:01.920 --> 00:05:12.319
And it's like those things kind of all make sense in like how Disney could apply its expansionary tactics to those IP and make them bigger than they are, and they're pretty big, right?
00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:19.600
Um, like I go Disney, World of Warcraft world at Shanghai, Disney would do monster numbers, like that would be a big, big thing.
00:05:19.759 --> 00:05:23.759
And they have the real estate to plop in a world of warcraft world, right?
00:05:23.839 --> 00:05:28.720
So, and world of warcraft is massive in China, so as there's a lot of Blizzard IP.
00:05:28.800 --> 00:05:32.480
So you can to me already kind of like that that makes sense, but it's not the only one.
00:05:32.560 --> 00:05:36.959
I mean, you could look at like Bethesda and you're like, I guess they could take that um and do something with it.
00:05:37.120 --> 00:05:42.639
Um, but like to me, like what makes a good gaming acquisition for Disney is do they have IP?
00:05:43.040 --> 00:05:44.240
Oh, yes or no?
00:05:44.480 --> 00:05:46.959
Is that IP already tied up in other films?
00:05:47.199 --> 00:05:48.160
No or yes.
00:05:48.399 --> 00:05:51.839
And then based on those two questions, like, and could they turn that into something bigger?
00:05:51.920 --> 00:05:57.120
Like, do they already have like strategic foothold in parts of the world that would be advantageous to Disney?
00:05:57.199 --> 00:05:59.120
And I think yes, for like something like Blizzard.
00:05:59.199 --> 00:06:06.399
So check these boxes, or I'm like, oh, and then they just happen to be Nervine down the street from Disneyland, like they're in the same market as corporate Disney.
00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:11.199
So like it's not it's not too crazy to think, like, oh, that could be something like there.
00:06:11.279 --> 00:06:13.199
So that's that's how I come to the Blizzard of it all.
00:06:13.279 --> 00:06:14.639
But like epic games, man.
00:06:14.800 --> 00:06:17.759
I know we're gonna probably disagree on that, but I just like bang my head in the wall.
00:06:17.839 --> 00:06:24.800
Like I literally wrote my patch notes last week after the layoffs, and I I hope my through line made sense for people.
00:06:24.879 --> 00:06:28.079
I was like, yeah, I'm gonna tie this Nintendo nonsense again.
00:06:28.240 --> 00:06:31.600
Like people just going, oh gosh, Nintendo, what are they doing?
00:06:31.680 --> 00:06:33.600
I cannot believe they're not gonna sell as much hardware.
00:06:33.680 --> 00:06:34.319
They're pulling back.
00:06:34.399 --> 00:06:41.439
This thing that came out from Bloomberg, and I was like, I mean, and other people kind of pounced on it before I did, like literally, everyone was like, What are they talking about over there?
00:06:41.519 --> 00:06:42.399
This is a bad piece.
00:06:42.560 --> 00:06:47.519
Um, and I did too, but I kind of like tied it to the Epic because every everyone doesn't say the same thing about Epic, right?
00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:52.560
Epic gets cheered no matter what they do, like, oh man, congratulations, we laid off another thousand employees.
00:06:52.720 --> 00:06:55.680
What a nice compensation package you gave to them on the way out of the door.
00:06:55.839 --> 00:06:57.120
And I was like, What?
00:06:57.360 --> 00:06:58.399
You gotta be kidding me.
00:06:58.639 --> 00:07:07.600
Thousand people just lost their jobs because because of dumb mistakes, or or like we'll call mistakes, but we were on that costly choices, anyways.
00:07:07.680 --> 00:07:08.319
You jump in, man.
00:07:08.399 --> 00:07:09.519
What do you think about the blizzard stuff first?
00:07:09.600 --> 00:07:10.800
And then we'll jump in the epic stuff.
00:07:11.040 --> 00:07:12.800
I mean, the blizzard stuff makes sense to me.
00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:17.040
I still don't necessarily agree with it per se, but that's not on the table now, right?
00:07:17.120 --> 00:07:28.399
Like your blizzard dream of being acquired by Disney is more and more fading away because it's becoming the banana, whatever it's named Peely and something Jones, whoever those characters from Fortnite are, right?
00:07:28.480 --> 00:07:36.399
Like, I don't I you know this this whole week or month, I don't know what we want to call whatever Epic is going through, is not a pretty period for Epic.
00:07:36.480 --> 00:07:39.680
But the truth is no game is forever, right?
00:07:40.000 --> 00:07:43.279
Eventually you start to slow down, and that's what Epic is seeing.
00:07:43.439 --> 00:07:44.319
Is it bad decisions?
00:07:44.480 --> 00:07:49.839
No, I think it's just kind of aging up, and not aging up, but everyone growing up, everyone starting to move on to other things.
00:07:50.000 --> 00:07:51.680
And they did make some bad bets.
00:07:51.759 --> 00:07:55.839
They bet on UEFN completing with competing with Roblox, but they lost that.
00:07:55.920 --> 00:08:01.519
They uh they bet on a lot of this stuff with Disney, and that's starting to come to fruition, whatever it is, right?
00:08:01.680 --> 00:08:02.639
And we're starting to see it.
00:08:02.800 --> 00:08:05.680
I don't, you know, and then Epic had the issue with the layoffs, right?
00:08:05.759 --> 00:08:10.399
And this guy who was sick, which Tim didn't know this stuff when these were layoffs were happening.
00:08:10.480 --> 00:08:11.920
It sucks, but that's kind of what's happening.
00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:15.680
And Fortnite is losing an engagement, and we've been talking about that for weeks as well, right?
00:08:15.839 --> 00:08:23.680
So I think we're at a point where people are kind of grasping for star straws, and Disney had a bad time with Zora, they put a lot of money into this.
00:08:23.759 --> 00:08:26.399
It's like, all right, well, that blew up in our face.
00:08:26.480 --> 00:08:28.879
Now let's look at Epic because things are working there.
00:08:28.959 --> 00:08:32.559
But those are kind of uh, you don't catch a falling knife.
00:08:32.639 --> 00:08:34.080
That's something people say a lot, right?
00:08:34.159 --> 00:08:36.320
And I feel like Epic's kind of a falling knife right now.
00:08:36.399 --> 00:08:45.759
I'm not saying they can't rebound from this, but I think this is a way of someone trying to stir up some controversies, trying to stir up some engagement, trying to do something to get it on the radar.
00:08:45.840 --> 00:08:47.759
Because to your point, I don't think it makes sense.
00:08:47.840 --> 00:08:50.240
I I don't think Disney necessarily wants Epic.
00:08:50.320 --> 00:08:51.360
I don't think it makes sense.
00:08:51.519 --> 00:08:54.159
I think, yeah, you can do a few fun things in the park.
00:08:54.320 --> 00:08:57.679
And the other point, which is a whole nother thing, is the technology.
00:08:57.759 --> 00:09:02.399
I mean, uh, Unreal Engine is a monster engine in gaming and it's a triple A masterpiece, right?
00:09:02.480 --> 00:09:02.960
That's what people do.
00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:06.720
And if Disney were to take control of this and technology, that's like, where does that go?
00:09:06.799 --> 00:09:08.080
It's a staying open source engine.
00:09:08.159 --> 00:09:11.200
Does it still get this uh the love that it's feeling and stuff like that?
00:09:11.440 --> 00:09:13.279
It's a lot of weird questions.
00:09:13.679 --> 00:09:16.720
Yeah, let me let me let me parse that.
00:09:16.879 --> 00:09:18.240
I agree with a lot of what you said.
00:09:18.320 --> 00:09:20.000
So I'll just tackle it one by one.
00:09:20.240 --> 00:09:26.320
First off, Epic kind of randomly in the situation they're in, is I think the best myth at him Swinny's told.
00:09:26.399 --> 00:09:34.799
Like, you know, he he specifically made choices, and they might be good choices for the industry, but they have consequences for his company that his employees are paying for, not him.
00:09:35.039 --> 00:09:39.840
He chose to go to war with Apple at the peak of his powers at Fortnite to like kind of reach.
00:09:40.000 --> 00:09:40.720
He chose that.
00:09:40.879 --> 00:09:47.039
Now he knew what he was doing because literally the day he kind of put the kind of store-in-a-store thing, right?
00:09:47.120 --> 00:09:57.120
When he basically went out and fingerpoint pointed in the face of uh Apple and you know went against the terms of services, they had like a 1984 Mac commercial knockoff, like ready to go.
00:09:57.200 --> 00:09:59.200
Like they launched that NFR campaign.
00:09:59.360 --> 00:10:00.799
So he knew what he was doing, right?
00:10:00.879 --> 00:10:02.960
So this wasn't a surprise of what the outcome was, right?
00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:08.080
So they get stripped from the Apple store, the iOS store, and then I I believe Google Play too, but I can't confirm it.
00:10:08.159 --> 00:10:09.360
But definitely iOS, right?
00:10:09.519 --> 00:10:10.480
So why does that matter?
00:10:10.559 --> 00:10:16.879
Well, iOS has a billion users, and not only are they the billion users, they're the billion most wealthy users in the world, probably speaking, right?
00:10:16.960 --> 00:10:18.240
They spend the most money on games.
00:10:18.399 --> 00:10:24.240
So you took your game off the largest distribution platform for games with the most lucrative user base.
00:10:24.480 --> 00:10:25.279
That was a choice.
00:10:25.440 --> 00:10:29.840
And he did not get back to the Apple store until the court forced it in like five years later.
00:10:29.919 --> 00:10:34.240
So you lost five years of compounding money, compounding fan growth, compounding everything.
00:10:34.399 --> 00:10:39.600
Just like your firm K compounds, so does everything else in gaming, and you just took it away for five years.
00:10:39.679 --> 00:10:41.039
So you just lost the growth.
00:10:41.279 --> 00:10:42.080
You can't get that back.
00:10:42.159 --> 00:10:44.000
That's just an opportunity cost, right?
00:10:44.240 --> 00:10:44.799
That's one.
00:10:45.200 --> 00:10:49.840
So in that time, which I wrote about, the rise of roblox just coincidentally happened at the same time.
00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:51.919
Are these two things correlated to each other?
00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:55.120
I would say yes, but I would say correlation is causality.
00:10:55.200 --> 00:11:04.480
But like the rise of robots came on the back of and the death of Fortnite, and maybe that was always gonna happen, but definitely was helped by the fact that it weren't iOS, but you know what was Roblox.
00:11:04.559 --> 00:11:07.759
The Roblox came in during COVID and took its place, right?
00:11:07.840 --> 00:11:09.360
That's just basically what happened.
00:11:09.440 --> 00:11:12.320
Um, and took a share of its audience away.
00:11:12.480 --> 00:11:18.320
Um, so that happened, and okay, and then the other thing that happened during that time period was ATT.
00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:19.440
So I talk about this all the time.
00:11:19.600 --> 00:11:22.960
Apple transparency and Apple's ad transparency and tracking.
00:11:23.039 --> 00:11:26.799
Um, basically where you they made it really hard to do advertising, right?
00:11:26.960 --> 00:11:30.559
Because it became probabilistic um targeting instead of deterministic.
00:11:30.720 --> 00:11:33.039
Probabilistic meaning a random subset of users.
00:11:33.200 --> 00:11:39.840
We can't determine if they are actually the person we think they are, but we have so much data we can get within a high percentage of their likely that person.
00:11:39.919 --> 00:11:43.200
That's like how targeting is now, but it's very expensive, and you have to have a lot of data.
00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:46.159
Deterministic is what it was before, where you could just buy the user data.
00:11:46.320 --> 00:11:50.879
Like, I know who this person is, I'm just gonna chase around with mobile ads everywhere to acquire them in my mobile app.
00:11:51.039 --> 00:11:56.559
That's how mobile apping, the gaming ecosystem really grew, and that's how it's all cratered since that that happened.
00:11:56.720 --> 00:12:03.600
So that got that went into effect during the um during the blackout period for Fortnite.
00:12:03.679 --> 00:12:10.480
And so when they came back, and if they saw all these users and come back, it's gonna be like, no, you're gonna have to acquire them, they're gonna be a lot more expensive now than they were five years ago.
00:12:10.559 --> 00:12:14.000
So they just came into a very, very different market on UA side.
00:12:14.320 --> 00:12:24.080
And then during this, like, you know, this uh while Tim Sweeney's putting a lot of money in the lawyers and everything else, like you they did a layoff of 800 people, and then they did a layoff of a thousand people.
00:12:24.320 --> 00:12:29.840
So he himself is not paying the cost, he himself is buying force in other parts, you know, right to save the environment.
00:12:30.080 --> 00:12:33.919
Like, I'm I'm not okay, great, but you know, who's losing their jobs?
00:12:34.159 --> 00:12:36.399
The people underneath them at Epic, and that sucks.
00:12:36.480 --> 00:12:39.440
And so um, I think I always say two things can be true.
00:12:39.519 --> 00:12:47.200
I'm not saying he's a bad person, I'm saying no, what he does for the industry is great for medium and small developers as they try to like build on the Apple iOS ecosystem.
00:12:47.279 --> 00:12:55.039
I think what he did for them was great, you know, for their businesses, but the consequences were being felt by his employees at his business, and that sucks.
00:12:55.120 --> 00:12:57.360
So I think two things can be true at the same time.
00:12:57.440 --> 00:13:03.759
So this is the way they became the falling knife because they've been they've been on a downward slope because of all these things since that moment in time.
00:13:04.080 --> 00:13:08.399
And why would Disney buy something where I think they're getting the value out of it they need?
00:13:08.480 --> 00:13:15.200
They put a billion and a half in it, they get to have all the Star Wars characters in there, all those you know, Disney characters in there.
00:13:15.360 --> 00:13:17.200
Um, they get a look at the books.
00:13:17.360 --> 00:13:20.639
Um, they probably get paid or they were getting paid for the licensing deal.
00:13:20.720 --> 00:13:21.600
Maybe they're not anymore.
00:13:21.679 --> 00:13:27.679
I don't know, but like they're already there, they're already getting the brand exposure they need with their IP as much as they want it to be, right?
00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:30.399
So they already have that lever, they're already executing that lever.
00:13:30.559 --> 00:13:39.840
And okay, so if their stuff's already experienced being experienced inside of worlds and epic based on the deal they have now, what else would they be getting out of this if they were to own the whole thing?
00:13:39.919 --> 00:13:44.000
And that's where I'm like, there's no there's no theme park being built on Fortnite.
00:13:44.080 --> 00:13:46.639
I'm sorry to people who think there is, there's just not, right?
00:13:46.720 --> 00:13:48.000
I don't see this ever happening.
00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:49.840
I would nor would people care.
00:13:49.919 --> 00:14:00.639
Um, and I'm gonna use my very unscientific look at the Lego section when I go to Lego and they have a Fortnite, it's in the back of the corner because I don't think they're very popular sets, the Fortnite gaming sets.
00:14:00.960 --> 00:14:03.759
Pokemon's in the front, Star Wars is in the front.
00:14:03.840 --> 00:14:06.480
Like it's just eh, it's fine, right?
00:14:06.559 --> 00:14:11.679
It's not like a terrible thing, but I don't think they have that core passion that say other IP has.
00:14:11.759 --> 00:14:13.600
And like you're commenting, like all the IPs forever.
00:14:13.679 --> 00:14:15.440
Well, World of Warcraft seemingly forever.
00:14:15.600 --> 00:14:34.559
And so they had their ceiling, they're far from that ceiling, but they hit their floor and they have like generations on generations of people playing this game as it goes on for literally 20 plus years, and that is the OG of life service, not as sexy as say Fortnite because it's not new, but it doesn't need to be new, it just needs to be harvested for expansion and other medium.
00:14:34.639 --> 00:14:42.399
And they tried to do this themselves and failed because the world the warcraft movie I effectively just didn't do what it's supposed to do to drive more fans.
00:14:42.639 --> 00:14:45.519
So let Disney have a crack at it, would be my put my point.
00:14:45.600 --> 00:14:46.960
Uh, at least on them.
00:14:47.279 --> 00:14:49.440
So, and then that last bit is like the Unreal thing.
00:14:49.519 --> 00:14:52.960
That's the other thing that people have come at me with like, oh, but Unreal Engine, what a great technology.
00:14:53.120 --> 00:14:56.080
Again, I'm I'm at Alani at Disney.
00:14:56.480 --> 00:14:59.360
I'm gonna tell you my Disney experience from a technology perspective.
00:14:59.519 --> 00:15:00.879
I have to log in.
00:15:01.200 --> 00:15:03.919
So my my my my my uh I'm here with my family.
00:15:04.000 --> 00:15:12.320
So my mother, who uh was gracious to kind of get all this together, um, got the photo pass, right, for us to save all our photos from no matter what photographer we have.
00:15:12.480 --> 00:15:18.320
You have to run that through your Disneyland app, not your Disney Alani app, not your Disney Plus app, your Disneyland app.
00:15:18.399 --> 00:15:19.519
Does that make intuitive sense?
00:15:19.679 --> 00:15:20.320
Absolutely not.
00:15:20.480 --> 00:15:25.679
But your photos have to go through the Disneyland app because there's a there's an app for every park.
00:15:26.240 --> 00:15:28.000
There's not one super app for all parks.
00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:30.159
There's an app for Disney World, there's an app for Disneyland.
00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:36.159
I'm sure there's an app for Disney Shanghai, there's an app for Disney Hong Kong, and like Tokyo, Disney at Sea or whatever they call it, right?
00:15:36.240 --> 00:15:39.279
There's a Disney Paris, there's a Disney Play app for everything, right?
00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:40.000
That's my guess.
00:15:40.080 --> 00:15:43.039
Um, so that we have to run our photos through the Disneyland app.
00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:44.000
Okay, all right.
00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:46.000
The Lani app is how we purchase things.
00:15:46.159 --> 00:15:46.960
Okay, that's fine.
00:15:47.120 --> 00:15:58.000
Um, but and then the last one is by Disney Plus, which is like the if they really did all have one singular CRM, then it should know when I walk into the hotel room that I am who I am.
00:15:58.159 --> 00:16:01.600
I have a Disney Plus app and auto log me into Disney Plus on my TV.
00:16:01.679 --> 00:16:07.519
So when I turn it on, that's the first screen I see is a Disney Plus app, and we just watch Bluey or whatever we're gonna put on, right?
00:16:07.600 --> 00:16:08.240
For the kids.
00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:10.159
So, but that's not how it works.
00:16:10.240 --> 00:16:16.320
I have to do the dull screen CRM, scan the QR code on my TV, like the whole thing as if I'm in like a normal room.
00:16:16.559 --> 00:16:23.120
Um, this is Disney trying to monetize what it already does via technology, and I would say they are terrible at it.
00:16:23.279 --> 00:16:25.759
Um it's not a technology company.
00:16:25.840 --> 00:16:28.960
Um, they're really good at other things, and I don't think companies have to be good at everything.
00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:30.399
I think people could be bad at technology.
00:16:30.639 --> 00:16:34.080
Like, it's not our main cup of tea, it's not, it's our it's our core company.
00:16:34.320 --> 00:16:34.879
We're not good at this.
00:16:35.039 --> 00:16:38.320
Them owning Unreal Engine is like, what would they even do with it?
00:16:38.559 --> 00:16:42.240
Oh, they would use it to make movies and they would do all this infrastructure stuff.
00:16:42.320 --> 00:16:44.320
I'm like, is Disney an infrastructure company?
00:16:44.480 --> 00:16:56.639
Or is this just a bunch of executives that know how to turn uh a character that's on one type of medium into like whether books or whatever, into an animated TV show, movie franchise, Pink Park ride, etc.?
00:16:56.879 --> 00:16:58.000
Because that to me is the latter.
00:16:58.240 --> 00:16:59.279
They're they're good at that thing, right?
00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:00.159
That's what they're good at.
00:17:00.320 --> 00:17:10.400
Um, and them owning UE is like I uh I think UE would just die and another game engine would come, and that would just be trap and sucky for Unreal Engine, but that would probably be it.
00:17:10.480 --> 00:17:12.559
And they pay a lot of money for that experience in that ride.
00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:14.480
I just think I wouldn't do that if I were them.
00:17:14.559 --> 00:17:16.880
So that's what you said on the technology in Disney.
00:17:17.200 --> 00:17:18.559
You said so much there, right?
00:17:18.960 --> 00:17:21.039
And I think it all comes to an interesting discussion.
00:17:21.200 --> 00:17:25.599
I want to play devil's advocate with you, not saying I disagree with you, but let's start from high level, right?
00:17:25.680 --> 00:17:28.559
Uh Epic needs Disney more than Disney needs Epic, right?
00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:36.880
To your point, Disney could be like, you know what, I just want to take all my characters off your game, and Epic would be like, no, please don't what's Fortnite without the characters and IP, right?
00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:39.039
It's it makes sense, right?
00:17:39.359 --> 00:17:47.359
Um, and let's not discount what people have been saying about Unreal Engine over the past generation of UE5, saying the games look the same.
00:17:47.599 --> 00:17:50.799
It's becoming kind of you can tell a game by the look of the engine.
00:17:50.880 --> 00:17:53.519
And look at the AAA blockbusters that have been coming out this year.
00:17:53.759 --> 00:17:56.960
A lot of them are building their own custom engines or running on other infrastructure.
00:17:57.039 --> 00:18:01.440
And it's interesting to think does the UE engine still have the same pull that it used to have?
00:18:01.519 --> 00:18:07.359
And for the great many, yes, but you see the AAA games of today are having their custom built engines in.
00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:12.559
Uh, but the licensing thing is what always got me thinking, and I don't know anything about licensing or the cost of licensing.
00:18:12.640 --> 00:18:20.400
But when Iron Man or when when Avengers is throwing CGI into their movie and it costs so much money, who are they actually paying for that, right?
00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:22.720
Are they paying licensing costs to Unreal?
00:18:23.039 --> 00:18:23.200
Right.
00:18:23.279 --> 00:18:26.319
And in that case, maybe they want to buy the engine or sell the game.
00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:27.359
I I don't know, right?
00:18:27.440 --> 00:18:37.359
And I don't know how licensing costs, and maybe someone that's watching this can break it down a little bit, but like, you know, CGI always everyone complains that it's expensive and it might be getting cheaper, but where does that licensing cost come from?
00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:39.839
And does it make sense if that's what they want to do?
00:18:40.400 --> 00:18:45.440
Yeah, I I don't know enough about the CGE world to have like a strong take on that.
00:18:45.599 --> 00:18:51.200
I would suspect the the majority of costs that they do are the animators who make CGI sequences.
00:18:51.279 --> 00:18:58.000
So it's because it's so labor-intensive of humans and rendering and like retaking the shot and adding a certain thing in.
00:18:58.240 --> 00:19:00.720
I think that is the majority of the cost of stuff.
00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:04.000
And like I think that's where everyone assumes AI is gonna take over in Hollywood.
00:19:04.079 --> 00:19:06.799
It's like not the actors, not the all these things.
00:19:06.880 --> 00:19:11.200
It's gonna take over in the kind of the CG side because it's the well, it's where all the money goes.
00:19:11.279 --> 00:19:20.960
It's like, oh, we gotta pay all these humans across all these parts of the world to animate and add in the all these CG sequences on a frame-by-frame basis because nothing is practical anymore, right?
00:19:21.119 --> 00:19:25.599
So I I don't see how Unreal is makes it more automatable.
00:19:25.680 --> 00:19:31.359
I think it just kind of makes it, you know, it's an engine, sure, but like you still need humans, and I think that's just gonna come through automation.
00:19:31.440 --> 00:19:32.720
So I'm dubious.
00:19:32.799 --> 00:19:36.480
And it goes out of the last thing I think it needs to be said is like Epic would be really expensive.
00:19:36.559 --> 00:19:40.240
Like it's not like they get Epic for like four billion dollars, if uh, why not, right?
00:19:40.319 --> 00:19:42.000
Just go for it, like sure.
00:19:42.160 --> 00:19:46.079
Like, but that would be just a massive investment by Disney to buy Epic.
00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:53.440
That's like a prize that the price is so astronomically high, it would be so astronomically high for Disney relative to like their banger acquisitions, right?
00:19:53.599 --> 00:19:57.440
They bought what like Marvel for a couple billion, which is laughable now.
00:19:57.599 --> 00:20:00.319
Like I like they bought that, made a lot of money on that.
00:20:00.480 --> 00:20:02.480
Um, they bought Star Wars for like nine billion.
00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:04.559
Um, say what you will about the sequel trilogies.
00:20:04.640 --> 00:20:15.680
I'm on the I hate them camp, but like they they uh they still probably did find well enough, and uh and they've turned it into a good brand from brand extension on deep parks and stuff like that.
00:20:15.759 --> 00:20:18.240
Like people snipe at Galaxy's Edge, it's fine.
00:20:18.319 --> 00:20:19.920
I think people like going to Star Wars Land, right?
00:20:20.000 --> 00:20:21.599
So it it's working, right?
00:20:21.759 --> 00:20:22.319
Could it be better?
00:20:22.400 --> 00:20:23.440
Sure, but like could it's working.
00:20:23.599 --> 00:20:27.359
Pixar obviously they've made their money back and then some via that acquisition.
00:20:27.440 --> 00:20:35.200
So like to me, it's the price point, like it's the right price um that would justify the purchase.
00:20:35.279 --> 00:20:37.599
And I just think Epic would be wildly too expensive, right?
00:20:37.759 --> 00:20:41.839
And is Tencent gonna give up whatever cut they own of that company or to to Disney?
00:20:41.920 --> 00:20:42.559
Like, I don't know.
00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:46.400
Maybe Tencent wants to own their their share of Epic at this point, right?
00:20:46.559 --> 00:20:48.240
Maybe they want to buy Epic, right?
00:20:48.400 --> 00:20:54.160
Um, because they own, I don't think they own four, I think they've been diluted through the last few rounds of fundraising.
00:20:54.319 --> 00:20:56.799
But like, do they do they wanna like exit?
00:20:56.880 --> 00:20:58.160
I don't know, and so it's like Lego Group.
00:20:58.240 --> 00:21:03.599
Lego Group owns a sizable sum share of Disney as well, um, or sorry, of um Epic Games.
00:21:03.680 --> 00:21:05.039
And do they wanna leave?
00:21:05.200 --> 00:21:16.160
I mean, if they did, that's a big tell because they put a lot of effort into turning this uh Lego Unreal UEFN kind of experience into something more than what it is, which I think is kind of a dud.
00:21:16.240 --> 00:21:20.240
I still think Lego would be better served by a TT, but whatever, that's my two cents.
00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:21.920
Go save it for Morner Brothers.
00:21:22.160 --> 00:21:25.440
Um, um, yeah, I just I think the price is wrong.
00:21:25.519 --> 00:21:32.480
I didn't think the price would be astronomy expensive, and they shareholders of Disney would uh regret buying that for the price it would be kind of in at.
00:21:32.559 --> 00:21:34.000
Like people say, oh, it prints billions.
00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:37.359
I'm like, yeah, it would be cost of multiple on those billions, and it's declining.
00:21:37.440 --> 00:21:42.319
So, and I don't know if Disney's the right kind of company to figure out why it's declining and fix it.
00:21:42.400 --> 00:21:43.359
Like that would be my main thing.
00:21:43.440 --> 00:21:45.359
They're not, they're not they don't know games.
00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:52.160
Buying a gaming company in decline that they would have to turn around to justify the price they paid for it.
00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:56.240
I just don't know if they are the right suitor for Epic, if they were even on the block, and that's the thing.
00:21:56.319 --> 00:21:59.359
Tim does Tim Sweeney want to sell supermajority shares of Epic?
00:22:00.000 --> 00:22:00.640
I don't know.
00:22:00.880 --> 00:22:03.680
He seems pretty content where he's at right now.
00:22:03.920 --> 00:22:06.240
So well, that'd be my read.
00:22:06.559 --> 00:22:12.640
Let let's sum it up with the Batman Begins quote that I use on every episode that you either die a hero or you live long enough to become the villain.
00:22:12.799 --> 00:22:17.759
It's funny, as you were talking about this, I wanted to look up what were some of the worst acquisitions that were bad or for Disney.
00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:20.480
Would you have any guesses on the Maker Studios?
00:22:20.720 --> 00:22:21.759
Maker's number two.
00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:24.079
So they paid nothing for a dumb experience.
00:22:24.160 --> 00:22:29.119
I mean, so that that that would probably be why it was his not it didn't matter to the day because they didn't pay that much for it.
00:22:29.200 --> 00:22:31.039
But they bought content that they didn't own.
00:22:31.119 --> 00:22:32.559
They're people they spot they bought it from.
00:22:32.640 --> 00:22:36.240
I knew people at Maker at the time, and I was like, what are they buying from you guys?
00:22:36.400 --> 00:22:37.440
You don't own anything.
00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:45.440
You you you sign contracts with kids that oh that end after like a couple years, and they're like, uh so proven to be true.
00:22:45.680 --> 00:22:46.799
So that was number two.
00:22:47.279 --> 00:22:51.119
No guesses at number one or any other guesses of any other acquisitions.
00:22:52.079 --> 00:22:53.920
Gosh, is it the Fox acquisition?
00:22:54.240 --> 00:22:55.759
2019, 21st century Fox.
00:22:55.920 --> 00:22:56.400
And you know why?
00:22:56.480 --> 00:23:00.319
Because it's so expensive, and that's uh that's it, right?
00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:02.480
Like, what did they get out of it at the end of the day?
00:23:02.640 --> 00:23:08.160
I mean, I you they got FX, okay, um, which makes good shows for them.
00:23:08.319 --> 00:23:08.559
Cool.
00:23:08.640 --> 00:23:12.240
So they have like a quasi HBO like experience, but it's the price.
00:23:12.400 --> 00:23:19.440
They got the X-Men, which they have done nothing with besides Deadpool, um, which I think that's coming.
00:23:19.519 --> 00:23:21.920
No, it's coming, you're right, it's coming, but they have done nothing with it.
00:23:22.000 --> 00:23:26.480
They got the X-Men, which was only because Marvel sold the rights forever to Fox.
00:23:26.799 --> 00:23:31.680
Um, and I they got they got the alien movies, and yeah.
00:23:31.839 --> 00:23:39.200
Well, and they got the the alien franchise, and they've been doing like cool stuff with that since they finally figured out what to do with it with the predator movies, right?
00:23:39.279 --> 00:23:49.119
So, but they again, oh, and they got avatar, which I think probably but again, oh Avatar is a great acquisition, it makes a lot of money in the box office.
00:23:49.200 --> 00:23:51.200
They have multiple theme park extensions, what a good deal.
00:23:51.440 --> 00:24:06.960
I'm like, yeah, except they had Avatar Land before they bought Fox, and they the price of Fox was so expensive, they're gonna have to do so much Avatar stuff for so long to equal the share price or the equal the cost of what they paid Fox for that, if that's how you look at it, right?
00:24:07.119 --> 00:24:09.599
So that's that's that's interesting.
00:24:09.759 --> 00:24:11.039
That goes back to the point about Epic.
00:24:11.119 --> 00:24:18.799
You're looking at a similar price point for a similar outcome, which is like even if No, if you know what the price point was, I'll keep I'm looking at it right here.
00:24:18.960 --> 00:24:20.000
Not even close.
00:24:20.240 --> 00:24:22.400
I hope not even close, but it really messes.
00:24:22.720 --> 00:24:24.240
Epic, my guess is Epic would be.
00:24:24.400 --> 00:24:26.480
No, no, no, 21st century Fox.
00:24:26.799 --> 00:24:28.640
Oh, it's like 78 billion, right?
00:24:29.279 --> 00:24:30.640
All right, seven seventy-one.
00:24:31.279 --> 00:24:32.160
Okay, yeah, all right.
00:24:32.400 --> 00:24:35.519
You think Epic would no way Epic would pull that much money.
00:24:35.920 --> 00:24:40.319
I don't know nothing about the financial, so yeah, I usually, so I'll be guesswork.
00:24:41.279 --> 00:24:45.200
Yeah, like it's maybe it's 55, 55, I think.
00:24:45.440 --> 00:24:49.759
I would say up 50 billion, yeah.
00:24:50.720 --> 00:24:55.839
Up 50 billion, plus I my guess is if they were to sell, it'd be plus 50 billion.
00:24:56.000 --> 00:24:57.119
Um easy.
00:24:57.359 --> 00:24:57.759
I don't know.
00:24:57.839 --> 00:25:00.160
I don't know the fact that they're a private company, so you're just kind of guessing.
00:25:00.319 --> 00:25:05.200
You know, the tea leaves of announced fundraising that they do, but they don't announce the equity stake of these companies.
00:25:05.279 --> 00:25:12.480
Like there's reported that Tencent knows 40%, but like do they still get diluted by all the additional uh money that the Epic had to take in?
00:25:12.559 --> 00:25:13.359
Like, who knows, right?
00:25:13.599 --> 00:25:21.200
So you and I'm not in the private um startup market to have an understanding of like what the share prices go for and how many they're out there.
00:25:21.279 --> 00:25:22.000
So who knows?
00:25:22.160 --> 00:25:27.119
I'm gonna say EA's price points at the bar, it's like gonna be in that 50 plus billion space, right?
00:25:27.279 --> 00:25:29.200
Um and there'd be multiple spitters on it.
00:25:29.440 --> 00:25:31.519
Like the Saudi's would have been on Fortnite.
00:25:32.000 --> 00:25:38.000
It's important to talk about the last two that Gem and I decided to pull up as the worst acquisitions for Disney.
00:25:38.079 --> 00:25:45.279
So number three was Platum, so a failed social gaming company that failed to deliver high returns.
00:25:45.359 --> 00:25:48.079
That was in 500 for$563 million.
00:25:48.559 --> 00:25:53.759
And number four was one I've been talking about so much recently and it hurts my heart, but Club Penguin.
00:25:53.920 --> 00:25:55.920
I was gonna say Club Penguin with Chris.
00:25:56.079 --> 00:25:57.200
That's Chris's thing.
00:25:57.359 --> 00:25:59.200
Um$350 million.
00:25:59.599 --> 00:26:08.400
But that means three out of the four that Google chose to show me were all gaming companies, which might mean that maybe Disney should not think about acquiring Epic.
00:26:09.519 --> 00:26:14.880
Unless they can like literally sit in a room and whiteboard what the flywheel would be and be honest with themselves on that.
00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:16.000
That's that's what I would say.
00:26:16.079 --> 00:26:30.880
Like, if you can tell me that they can find a gaming company that has enough IP, like I, you know, I would say this makes sense to me personally, but if they went after Ubisoft for the same logic that I applied to Blizzard, I'd be like, okay, I guess.
00:26:31.039 --> 00:26:34.480
Because you have Assassins, you have Far Cry, the Tom Clancy stuff.
00:26:34.559 --> 00:26:42.079
Like, you can see the IP there, and you're probably getting a discount relative to where Ubisoft is right now, but you can make it make sense.
00:26:42.160 --> 00:26:49.279
Like, okay, there's IP there, they could bring it back into the Disney fold, and they can turn it into um experiences outside of video games.
00:26:49.440 --> 00:26:53.519
Like, it to me, the math is like, do they have IP that Disney tanked?
00:26:53.759 --> 00:26:57.759
IP that has um that has value to gamers that they could turn into something else.
00:26:57.920 --> 00:27:09.599
What would scare them from Ubisoft is the Assassin's Creed movie tanked and the um Prince of Persian movie tanked that I think they did, so that probably scares them away from Ubisoft and like, oh, we don't want any of that smoke, right?
00:27:09.759 --> 00:27:14.480
Um, and it's you know seen as a declining asset faster than the other one.
00:27:14.640 --> 00:27:18.240
So like I don't know, but like I would play that kind of game with different gaming companies.
00:27:18.319 --> 00:27:19.359
Like, do they own an IP?
00:27:19.440 --> 00:27:23.519
Yeah, at least it's licensing the IP, doesn't make sense for us, etc.
00:27:23.680 --> 00:27:24.000
etc.
00:27:24.240 --> 00:27:24.559
Right.
00:27:24.880 --> 00:27:27.039
First of all, Epic's gonna be at a discount soon.
00:27:27.359 --> 00:27:29.920
Ubisoft's probably at a really high discount right now.
00:27:30.079 --> 00:27:31.039
The IPs that you have.
00:27:31.200 --> 00:27:33.680
I mean, Ubisoft is a sexy profile, right?
00:27:33.759 --> 00:27:34.720
With Tom Clancy.
00:27:35.119 --> 00:27:38.640
I mean, you can go back to the heydays uh uh of what Rayman.
00:27:39.519 --> 00:27:41.599
Right, like they built what gaming is today, right?
00:27:41.680 --> 00:27:47.680
They built Siege, and I feel like Siege was that first online game that really like built a whole generation of new players, right?
00:27:47.759 --> 00:27:54.720
You got Assassin's Creed that built players, the division that built kind of the extraction shooter uh kind of in a way genre.
00:27:54.799 --> 00:28:00.720
So I think you can go back to classic Ubisoft and say, hey, we can revive some of these and do something with it, but I don't know.
00:28:00.880 --> 00:28:02.720
Gaming industry is weird recently.
00:28:03.039 --> 00:28:06.960
Yeah, well, hey man, um, this is probably the most I'll talk about epics.
00:28:07.119 --> 00:28:16.319
I appreciate this because I don't know if I'll write about it, and all else to say is all speculative right now, but it would have been the topic of my newsletter had I been writing it this week, but I'm not, so it will not.
00:28:16.720 --> 00:28:18.079
Anything else big in your radar?
00:28:18.400 --> 00:28:21.359
You know, I feel I'm gonna I'm gonna probably play Crimson Desert in the back.
00:28:21.519 --> 00:28:25.119
I'm playing Pocopia still, so um that's the game.
00:28:25.200 --> 00:28:26.640
Um that I'm that Mr.
00:28:26.880 --> 00:28:29.359
Mime video you shared, by the way, was fantastic.
00:28:29.519 --> 00:28:35.119
Like uh that game is fascinating to watch, and it's it's starting to infiltrate my feed.
00:28:35.279 --> 00:28:39.279
I haven't played it yet, obviously, but it's infiltrating my feed, which I find fascinating.
00:28:39.359 --> 00:28:43.119
I mean, I know I'm talking about, but every feed recently is things that people are doing in there.
00:28:43.200 --> 00:28:45.200
I'm like oh my gosh, that Mr.
00:28:45.359 --> 00:28:46.160
Mind video is great.
00:28:46.319 --> 00:28:51.039
Um that's the like I think it's the most it's a series of them that keep getting more elaborate where they put them.
00:28:51.200 --> 00:29:03.039
Like the first one, let's say they just buried him in a ditch, and then they just put the blocks on top of him so he couldn't get out, and they just and they just blow check on him after a few days, is he still in the ditch, and then then they went out and built him a maximum security prison to put him in.
00:29:03.119 --> 00:29:04.000
I just funny.
00:29:04.160 --> 00:29:14.720
Um again, it says Minecraft with Pokemon in it, so you your imagination is like not just with the blocks, but then the blocks have creatures that all have distinct personalities that you could put them wherever, right?
00:29:14.799 --> 00:29:16.319
And like and interact with them anyway.
00:29:16.400 --> 00:29:17.519
So that's the magic of that game.
00:29:17.759 --> 00:29:18.240
You know what?
00:29:18.319 --> 00:29:23.680
I would say this I think like we're gonna look at this year as like one of the biggest games of like big gaming years.
00:29:23.759 --> 00:29:31.119
Like, I was I was talking to uh people on like I'm like, assume that Grand Theft Addos 6 is great and it comes out this year, so let's assume that.
00:29:31.359 --> 00:29:35.519
Like, and people are very, very passionate about Crimson Desert who are into that.
00:29:35.680 --> 00:29:39.920
Then like um, of course we don't have to go down the whole Metacritic rabbit hole.
00:29:40.079 --> 00:29:44.640
And and then you have uh Pocopia, like it's a really good year in games already.
00:29:44.720 --> 00:29:46.640
And never mind, Resident Evil was a massive success.
00:29:46.720 --> 00:29:50.480
I'm like, man, is this gonna be like looked back as like one of the landmark years of gaming?
00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:51.680
It kind of feels like it.
00:29:51.759 --> 00:29:53.440
Um, and we're only in the spring.
00:29:53.519 --> 00:29:54.559
Um, we shall see.
00:29:54.640 --> 00:29:58.960
Like it depends on how certain things hit, like Wolverine, I think, is a big critical piece of it.
00:29:59.119 --> 00:30:01.200
Um, but I don't know, man.
00:30:01.359 --> 00:30:06.480
It feels like it, and it's not, it's uh yeah, Grand Theft Battle 6 is a big component of it.
00:30:06.559 --> 00:30:09.359
But like I just think we're gonna look back and think, wow, what a year in games.
00:30:09.519 --> 00:30:17.920
Um so good year for games, a bad year if you're buying a game console because those prices are going up, but at least you're getting good games now.
00:30:18.559 --> 00:30:20.480
That's where we're gonna wrap up today's episode.
00:30:20.559 --> 00:30:22.720
For those of you listening, we appreciate you joining.
00:30:22.799 --> 00:30:27.839
Make sure you follow playerdriven.io, find out the latest content that we are putting out there.
00:30:28.000 --> 00:30:30.480
Let us know the games that you're playing and what excites you.
00:30:30.799 --> 00:30:32.400
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00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:34.559
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00:30:34.640 --> 00:30:37.680
Uh our Discord is just starting to pop, so check it out there.
00:30:37.839 --> 00:30:39.359
And wait till we come back next week.
00:30:39.440 --> 00:30:40.799
We're gonna be talking with App Charge.
00:30:40.880 --> 00:30:44.240
I do cool direct to consumer payment type stuff, and it's gonna be a great episode.
00:30:44.319 --> 00:30:45.200
So we'll catch you soon.
00:30:45.359 --> 00:30:45.519
Bye.
