ABOUT THIS EPISODE
Quantitative Trader Scott Phillips explains why Aug. 19 is almost certainly the first day of the next bull market for crypto.
In this episode, Scott breaks down the mechanical difference in the crypto markets' most recent move & explains how this market-wide upswing is a reliable signal for continued outperformance
Scott also explains why Bitcoin's (BTC) most recent move is almost certainly the beginning of the bull market, how to trade effectively in 'the trenches' and the systemic differences between shitcoining and quant analysis, how you can maintain a constant Sharpe 2.5+ system in crypto even when the edge is well-known, simple heuristics for identifying outlier (good) teams in crypto and betting heavily on them, how to build a list of predictably terrible projects and short them in perpetuity, a brief history of financial derivatives and some fundamentals to go with them, the curse of coming into a large sum of unearned capital you are ill-equipped to manage and why Ethereum (ETH) remains the most cursed major asset in crypto
Timestamps:
0:00 Obligatory BJJ intro
4:30 Trump, Hype & constructive PA
7:30 Mapping sentiment on tops and bottoms
9:00 Persistent edges in crypto
11:20 Farming copytraders
13:10 Trenching vs trading
15:00 The danger of unearned gains
17:00 August 20: the first day of the bull market
21:00 Shorting dogshit: indicators for bad projects
27:30 Crypto vs equities: finding edge on predictors
33:10 The 2 types of edge in crypto
36:00 Why known edge persists
44:00 The unfortunate “crypto” risk premia
48:00 Cursed Ethereum performance
51:30 Teams that look like hyperliquid
55:00 Why hyperliquid
57:45 Binance
1:00:00 Perp dex euthanasia rollercoaster
1:03:00 Small traders should trench on Robinhood
1:05:19 Check out Hypertrend
