Bust-A-Move

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Freaks and geeks James go here on the NFL Fantasy Lives podcast, joined as always by the Hall of Famer Michael Fabriano. Good to see you again, my friend after a week off. How you doing, Pal? I kind of feel sorry for you. Your arms in a sling. This is no joke. This sling is no joke. How do you sleep in that? Um? I actually have to sleep semi upright, which is terrible. It's the worst. It's the worst we got. Marcus Grant, MG, what up in the house? Thanks for filling in for me last week. I appreciate that. And the wiz kid from Wisconsin, Alex gil Har what's up man? How you doing? Not too much? Excited to have you back in the chair. It fairly feels like we're whole again, right serio. I am not whole. I am not whole. Well, no you are. Let me tell you. Let me tell you what sucks about using one arm? Everything, everything, pretty much everything. What doesn't suck is that I have a built in excuse not to do chores, so that's nice. But other than that, everything, Because it's my right arm too, People ask me how did I injure it? Believe it or not. It actually is football related. I was throwing football around, um, after a few adult beverages, and uh, and I did not properly warm up my arm. But you were loose alright, at least I thought I was. I started firing laser beams, man, you know, and about three throws in, I was like, okay, all right, um, exactly, that's exactly right. So yeah, so I got the I got the surgery a week ago, and man, it's just miserable. Today is the first day actually I've put on a button up shirt. I've been rolling around the house in my pajama pants and half of an A shirt because I can't lift the arm right, so it's it's one A shirt on the left. I look like Tarzan and pajama pants is basically, Uh, it's not a good look. You wish you had Tarzan's physique. That's a great point, actually, that I look like a poor poor man. And look, my wife would calling me kimpy. Just you go right, exactly. I feel like, hey, gimpy. All right. Um, yesterday was the first day I wasn't I I shaved, you know, the first time in a week. Was great. Oh my gosh, my wife helped me wash my hair for the first time in a I'm telling it was glorious on believable. I mean there were critters crawling out of my head. Yeah, it was not good. Anyways, let's talk about let's talk about. Can you move over the air please? I don't want to. I just said, I just I just washed my hair yesterday. Man, I'm good, I'm good to go. I'm ready to rock and roll. Let's do this thing. Let's talk off top fantasy headlines. Number one headline, I'll get Todd. NFL media insider in Rapp Report reported Tuesday that Girl is expected to be on the non football injury list to start training camp. That accorded sources informed of his situation, the Rams can take him off the list whenever he feels whenever they feel he is fully ready. There have been no reports about sec set back with girlies Naith throughout the off season. That's good. The team was non committal about Girly being ready for camp, though coach Jeff Fisher did say quote, you could probably assume Girly will play sooner than you think. What does that mean, Well, it means that the Trey Mason era is gonna end sooner than later in St. Louis, And if you do draft girly, you need to get Mason late. I wouldn't be surprised if he's back for week one, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he's forced to miss a few weeks. Uh. We've seen that kind of scenario in the past. But the autom line here is simple. When Todd Gurley is on that football field, he's gonna be the centerpiece of that offense. They drafted him high because they love him. Everyone compares him to who Marshawn Lange and Adrian Peterson, and boy, if you can get three quarters of that production, you're looking at a fantasy star. All right. Let me let me play Devil's advocate here for your fabs. He tore an a c L, folks. I mean I get it. I thought our very own Barbaja Bi Milla said, the a c L is the new sprained ankle. I I I get where he's coming from. But let me tell you something. He he tore up that knee in November, man, and um, it's we're asking a lot of a rookie running back to come back try to play in September after tearing his knee less than a year out, and again, not only is he a rookie, so we don't know what he's gonna I get it, before the injury, the dude was a man child. He was a beast out there. He was trucking sec defense. I get he looked amazing. But that being said, we don't know how he's gonna perform at the NFL level, and we especially don't know how he's gonna respawned after tearing an a c L. I can't be the only one thinking that he's being overdrafted right now. I'm kind of with you, you know. I think he's gonna be a big part of the offense, but I just don't expect him to show up, you know. I expect he'll be back around week two, week three, maybe, but I don't think he's gonna come in and suddenly get twenty carries or anything like that. I think it's one thing where they work him back in. Uh maybe by the end of the year. Maybe he is that guy. But I have a feeling that we're gonna end up seeing more of a committee approach with this backfield for the majority of this year and then maybe next year you're talking about Todd Gurley is the guy, But I still think Trey Mason's gonna have some value this year. Shaking your head there, Yeah, that was exactly my point. Nobody had uttered the dreaded s word on the podcast yet, But I think that this is gonna be headed towards that. Even I'm encouraged and I'm probably bumped girly up a little bit in my ranking since he seems to be coming back faster than I would have thought. But uh, they're gonna probably be splitting time you. Like you said, they drafted him highly. That doesn't mean they're gonna throw him out and let him get worn down right away. Again. They invested a top ten overall picking this guy. They're not going to be foolish with him. They're gonna play clock clock ball and run a lot both with Mason. And to say that he's being overdrafted with an ADP of round nine, no way. I'll take him in round nine all day long, and in fact, most of our drafts he's gonna go before that. He's gonna be drafted and probably the fifth or sixth round, and we're all banking on his upside. And I'm not saying he comes in and has TWI carries a game, but can he have eighteen touches a game once he comes back and then he starts feeling himself. Yeah, I absolutely think that. And with what we have seen in terms of the medical advances and recovery from a c L Senz, I mean players don't have a second thought about that. Carson Palmer had his a c L torn and he's thirty five years old. Palmer was also not running past rounde. I understand west Welker was, though he came back and had a pretty good season when he was after he came back in uh, I don't know. I don't remember what year it was, but he tore his knee up in the last game of the season. I believe it was against the Texans. I could be wrong there, but then he came back started the Sason. Adrian Peterson is another. He's he's the he's a physical free right, and he's also a B and C. As to why a running back can come back and just be an absolutely right the days of well, an a c L tear needs at least one year for a player to fully recover physically and mentally, I mean those days are over. The difference I would say they'll between and not to say that Tid Gurley can't do this, but the difference between Todd Gurley coming into this situation versus Adrian Peterson West Welker is that not only is he getting himself back physically, he's learning a new offense that's the top of that. So he's he's not going to get the training camp experience likely to get used to what the Rams are doing. So the first few weeks are going to be training camp for Todd Gurley on top of him getting ready physically. But also keep in mind too, you're looking at sixteen weeks and not the first of course, right he could he could be a Jeremy Hill type where maybe he is, you know, like a ghost for the first five six weeks, but once he is fully healthy and takes over that backfield, he could run away with it. Man. I'll tell you this. If he's going in the ninth round, it's a good solid draft prices. What round do you like him at? FABS for girly five or six and we're talking about a ten team league and I wouldn't be surprised if someone jumped on him as soon as round four because of the because of the potential, and that scares these things. These things are odd, and you'll see a lot of weird things. If you guys do mox on NFL dot com shore, you see a lot of weird picks. Sure. Sure again, I wouldn't touch this guy until round six, and then I'd consider him. I think if I can get a ninth round grade out of or a ninth round value out of of course, yeah, tremendous upside, crazy upside, you do it. And and that's what I'm saying. And that's what I'm saying to me. I think, if you're taking reaching for him in the fourth, mistake, fifth, I still think that's a mistake. I think six you can start to look at him, and in the seventh it might be solid. Yeah. I mean, I guess, because I'm so skittish about the whole thing, I'm the fantasy skeptic, I guess, you know, I would probably look at him, and maybe seventh rade I had to be that I wouldn't be able to handcuff him to Trey Mason because they're probably going to it just wouldn't happen. Yeah, that's right. And I don't know if you're getting great value uh doing it that way, because you're you're banking on again a Jeremy Hill type situation, if you're drafting him in the six or seventh round. All right. Justin Hunter was arrested Monday following the July three bar assault in Virginia Beach, That's where he was raised. Hunter is charged with felony assault after allegedly quote stabbing, cutting, and wounding a victim that according to Officer Jimmy Carson of the Virginia Beach Police Department, the victim's injuries are considered serious but non life threatening. The Titans released a statement Monday saying, quote, we are aware of the situation and are continuing to gather more facts. The twenty four year old white Out was born in Virginia Beach. As I mentioned, it's hard to imagine a suspension not coming down. What are the reactions here, because I know last year a lot of folks had him pencil because he's an uber athletic guy. A lot of folks had him penciled in as a part your breakout start didn't quite happen, um, and a lot of folks again, we're kind of doubling down this year and saying, okay, third year wide receiver, that's generally the projection that we see. They've got Marcus Mariota there, maybe Justin Hunter caun emerge. But again, you hear about these kind of charges, it's hard, really hard, uh, to get excited about a drafting a player like this. Well, and you look at it, this was this was kind of a make or break year for Justin Hunter in this offense. I mean, we've been waiting for a couple of years for him that emerged, that Titans had been waiting for him to really take that next step. And then you add to it that they've got some veterans there now, I mean, you know, they bring in Harry Douglas, they draft Oyal Green Beckham, and that's the bigger one is Royal Green Beckham is a better version of Justin Hunter. So you've got guys who were already threatening to take his job. Now he's got this legal situation. We've seen the last couple of years that teams in the league are not really you know, they're they're not giving guys a long leash in situation sations like this. I mean unless you are in Adrian Peterson or something like that. Um, you know, chances are they're gonna let you go and be someone else's issues. So I just you know, from from a a life standpoint, for Justin Hunter doesn't certainly doesn't look good. He's got a lot of stuff to deal with. From a football and the fantasy standpoint, there are other options into the city. He's got to be off the draft board for for people this year, and I think he sort of was already because he was close to it for they drafted green back on. They added Hakim Knicks in the off season. Harry Douglas is also in the mix there too, on top of of course Kendall Right, so, and I liked him last year too, and we saw some flashes remember in preseason. Oh man, that is it. I gotta get him. And then he did not do a thing for you. Yeah, exactly, all right, we move on. Uh. Baltimore tet and Dennis Pitta will likely open the season on the pup list. That's what leak sources told Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun. This means the six year pass catcher will likely miss the first six games of the campaign. If he plays it all. Next year, the team drafted Max Williams at Minnesota, So the news more or less solidifies Max Williams position starting position anyways, and pretty much more less solidifies pit as a non draftable fantasy player. Uh. I can't imagine anybody's gonna be taking a flyer on this guy, no matter how late it is. Say the name, it's my boy, Crocket Guild. There it is. I can't forget about him. There it is. I mean, we're gonna have to watch and see how they split up their reps in uh in the preseason. But FABS has documented it well. Rookie tight ends really hard to translate to early fantasy success in the NFL. Uh Crocket guildmore baby one of the best names in the biz. Such a good name. Uh. But either way, one of those guys is going to have to catch passes in that trustment offense. So we're gonna have to keep an eye on it as the preseason and training camp progresses to see who, if anybody, is worth draft. All right, those are your top headlines. Let's talk about the mail bag. You've got mail Hey, there we go, GT. Just too many numbers here, Okay, Look Emmanuel Sanders moving a slot. What are your projected stat lines for second year wide receiver Cody Laddimer. I love this question. I'm big on Cody Laddimer. I mean, I have him on my Dynasty League team. I mean, I think this is a situation. He's not going to put up Emmanuel Sanders, you know, Wes Welker when he was there kind of numbers. But I do think you can probably get about seventy catches out of out of Cody Laddimer, maybe about eight hundred yards. And because he's playing in that that Peyton Manning Bronco offense, that's what it is, you know, six seven touchdowns. I don't think it's ridiculous for us. I think the problem with him is consistency. Yeah, you're not gonna get it. No, he is gonna It's gonna be the same situation as Davante Adams where you're gonna see a couple of big games and you are going to start frothing at the mouth. You've got to get him in your starting lineup because he's a big athletic. He's a big athletic target in a great offense. Right. And also keep in mind too that Gary Kubiak. Although he will throw the football, he's a guy who likes to run the ball. Uh. And and we talked about last week how Matt shob had some pretty good numbers in Houston, but that was a while back. That was a while back before a lot of the rule changes, and now quarterbacks are putting up even bigger numbers. So if shops numbers were in this day and age of football, they'd been nice. But they weren't. They weren't elite numbers. So do I like Latimer? Yes? Do I think it's going to take an injury to either Damerius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders for him to really break out? Right? Yes, that's that's the thing is. We're talking about Manning's offense and what he's done with wide receivers in the past, but I was also looking at what kubi Acs third wide receivers have done in his last three offenses. It is not pretty. Yeah, who was this third receiver last year in Baltimore? Two catches two or sixty seven yards. The year before that it was Keyshawn Martin twenty two catches two or fifty three yards. The year before that Keyshawn Martin ten catches eighty five years. And here's the I mean, I love, I love and hate these comparisons, right because sometimes, um, it's a great, it's a great, it's not fair player. Latimer's got a lot more upside than the players that you mentioned. And this is a Denver Broncos offense led by Peyton. Man's exactly right, well worth, well worth drafting. I also looked at those numbers, uh, and it was an average of fifty eight catches. The yards were what are we talking about here? Third third wide receiver the last three years for Payton for pay in Denver, in Denver, eight catches, six hundred yards. Wait, you're not going back to the Brandon Stokely Austin Colleige days Indiapolis. Baron Stokely was the third wide receivers had if we had a thousand yards the year that Peyton broke the record for touchdown passes and the and the one the one anomaly year here too was in when Manning said all those other records. That was when Welker had seventy three catches, a hundred, eleven targets, almost eight hundred yards and ten tds. Is third wide out. Otherwise the wide receivers are about five hundred yards two tds fifty catches. I want to ask you one question and then we can get back to the mail bag. And this is going to be something that a lot of fantasy owners are going to be considering, right the various Thomas is one of the three elite wide receivers in Fantasy football top three. What happens if Peyton decides to retire after two thousand and fifteen and you've got brock ost Wilder potentially being your quarterback. What kind of keeper or dynasty league value will de Marius tom Hold or any of those wide receivers hold once Peyton leaves very exactly, You got that one right. It's not nake. You missed it. This week was good. It's not quite the cliff because don't on the board Thomas. Thomas put up good numbers with Tim good fantasy. So I'm just I'm but was Tim Tebow and he was young. He's a more mature receiver, and he'll have like it was Tim Tebow, Like the guy hit the ground as often as he hit Thomas in stride, but he was good in fantasy. Um um. I was going to add, Oh, the one other factor. I like Cody Latimer a lot. I wasn't throwing all those stats to bury him is. Don't forget Gary Kubiak loves throwing to his tight ends too, and he has Owen d his boy there. So you're talking about Thomas is gonna get a million targets, Sander's gonna get a lot of targets, Daniels is gonna get a lot of targets. We just left there just might not be enough for Lattimer to eat and uh and turn in solid fantasy numbers. If your grandma's wider five super late, like you're saying that's good, what round do we say in twelve thirteen somewhere in that area? Um, I think later, I think he would go. I think he could go uh somewhere between twelve and fifteen, depending on uh really, how many wide receivers you decide that you're going to draft. Yeah, I'd like to have five. I draft him as my five. Draft him as a five. Yeah for me, I think he's a He's an excellent upside late pick that you can take and feel pretty good about if you want to stash him on your bench for a few weeks or mitt heck, again, FABS, you mentioned there might be a week where he goes for one twenty and two touchdowns. Yeah, I think that's I think that's totally doable, and all of a sudden it becomes a tradeable asset. So there you go. Alright, next mail, bad question that that sign went out of your pie hole and lessen up, maggot, it's time for miracle. Should I keep Greg Olsen? This is from Sam Schoff twenty four Should I keep Greg Olson for seventh round pick? Hashtag fantasy football. This is for a keeper league, fabs Greg Olsen, seventh round pick, keeper league. It's about what he's worth, right, So if you lose that seventh round pick and you get Greg Olsen, I don't think that's a bad trade off at all. Although keeper leagues are tough because you know there's so many different kind of keeper league rules and how many players do you keep and and this sort of thing, and if you can only keep two or three players, and Olsen's maybe your three or four. So I have questions about this question, but that's fair market value for Olsen right now is und round six, so you're getting a value if you keep him in seven. The only thing is I mean keeping a tight ends. I am, you know, I mean for for the value. Yeah, sure, seventh round, that's that's adequate value for Greg Olsen. But it's just keeping a tight end kind of. But we always say that the tight end position is a disaster after those top four, and one of the top is one of the top four. So you're getting one of those guys you can at least count on. He's not gonna win you weeks, but he's not gonna put up as a fair I've got some stats too, because I'm working on this column, some stats for right a UH which will be out in NFL dot com about the tight end position, similar to what I did with backfields, and doing some projections. In terms of targets and receptions. Olson the fourth most targeted tight end last year UH career numbers and receptions, yards fantasy points. In his two seasons under Mike Shula, He's got two thirty four targets, that second most in the NFL during that time, behind only Jimmy Graham. Not Rob Gonnakowski because he's been a little bit banged up. Olson also accounted for at least eighty two percent of his team's totals at tight end in all three of those categories. So, uh, if a tight ends getting the football in Carolina, his name is Greg Olson. Yeah. I mean it's a volume play, it's a straight They don't have that many targets. I get Kelvin Benjamin's there, but I mean, you know they're gonna throw the football five times. He's gonna have to get a good amount of those touches. And especially since defenses are kind of spying Cam Newton, it leaves Greg Olsen open a lot of times. So it's good. He's a good, solid value play. All right, Next mail back question, you get a mail baby sound drop from the office line with Harry Tate. You know what, here's the thing, um, I think if you're if you're less than thirty, you have no idea? Do you know who that is? Who that is? I'm less than thirty? Sully shaking his head. You're a Ferry mature less Wait, Sully, how old are you? He has no idea? He he just shook his head. He knows. Look at that face. He knows. Right. You know he's twenty four, which means that I'm almost twenty years older than him. And I couldn't grow mustache like that. He could grow better mustache than me too. Oh I can't do it. Oh yeah, yeah, you know. Here's the thing. If you have never heard of Terry Tate office linebacker, go on YouTube Public service announcement. This is this is a p s A. Right now, I'm gonna I'm about to crush about fifteen twenty minutes of your time. Just go to YouTube. Wait, should we leave the room here, Harry Tate office Linebacker? Google it. You will not be disappointed, all right? Anyways, Thomas Kastner at t J l K, I plan to keep Levan Bell instead of Megatron. Should I draft de Angelo Williams for the first three weeks? And in what round? I like this question, Marcus, Yes, you should draft the Angelo Williams for the first three weeks. I mean, as for what round sounded like there? Why don't you just tell me what you want? Don't you tell me what's running back you'd like to draft? Um? Yeah, I mean you're gonna have to draft him. It would have made sense to handcuff him anyway, even he even he if he was going to be there for the first three weeks of the season, because you were looking at getting him, You're gonna have to reach a little bit earlier for D'angela Williams. I mean, right now he's got it in an a DP of the twelveth round. You're gonna have to go and get him, probably a little earlier, I'd say, probably round nine something like that, just to make sure he's going to be there. Because if everybody knows if you're holding on le Bell, they will somebody's gonna try to snake him from you and then make a deal. And that's why I'm saying I almost say, just look, you you kept Levian Bell. He's a top five pick. Just ensure the pick, make the D'Angelo Williams pick in the seventh round, and don't, oh my goodness, way round. In a keeper league, all right, there are there's a plenty of guys already off the board. That's true. In a keeper league, you're gonna have to spend. You're gonna have to spend good value to get D'Angel would. Just to secure your top five pick in that seventh round, you could grab somebody probably like an Isaiah crow Well or a Tevin Coleman or something you could reach around earlier on somebody that's going to have a better chance for production in those first three weeks. I'm telling you what keeper leagues those guys are all we don't know. We don't know how many keepers they're keeping. It might be a one keeper league and everybody's keeping Foster and Bell like I don't. I wouldn't even I don't know if I could dram Williams. And that's why it's so hard to answer keeper questions because there's not like, Okay, I'm in a standard league, all right, perfect, then we know exactly what you're dealing with. It's ten teams in keeper leagues like I'm in one keeper league where you can keep as many as three players, but you can't keep them after two years. They're all under contract until then. I mean, honestly, God, there are so many different versions of standards, so I guess, I guess, Look, there is no standard keeper. Well, there a lot of them. There really isn't a formats or one keeper. Yeah that would. I don't know if that's standard, but who knows. Okay, you know one keeper league, Okay, uh, d'angela Williams ninth round, That's what I said night. I don't know for me. I'd rather take one of those other guys that has a chance for better production. Daniel Williams has seedy yards per attempt to drop every year for the last four years. Uh, they're gonna, you know, committee him with three Archer and other guys, and they're probably just gonna sling the rock to Martavis Bryant Archer. I mean, I really do scrit a three archer. But you can put your faith in D'Angel Williams, but can't say anything bad about It's only it's only for a few weeks. I mean, I I think he can get a couple of scores in the first three weeks. I agree, he can find his way to the office. It's a great offense they got in pitch. You know, a couple of score off just grab him and hope he look. You know what you say that you laugh about that. I have a friend who once made the playoffs because needing one win getting to the postseason, he picked up Zach Crockett off the waiver wire. Crockett had like a four carry, three yard three touchdown. Yeah, Mabby love it, Robbie, next mail, bad question, God, Yeah, one whale. This is for our twelve to fifteen year old demos right, Robbie at the Real brown Man, which I love the Twitter handle. By the way, he asked, is Samuel Watkins a Sammuy Watkins gonna line up as a wide receiver one on my team this year? Real quick? Before he devon pulled back the curtain. This is actually Franchises boy in his league of record. I believe it's his birthday, so asked if we can get his question on Oh yeah, happy birthday, Robbie the Real brown Man, Happy birthday, and I would say no, he will not be a number one one receiver in fantasy this year. Uh, for two reasons. Number One, who in the heck is the quarterback in Buffalo? I mean is it not? Yeah? But whofle in the off season? Is it gonna be EJ? Manuel? Who went to that great college Florida State that puts out awesome quarterbacks in the NFL? Uh sarcastically. And Rex Ryan loves to run the football. They're gonna run it and then they're gonna run it again. Greg Romans gonna utilize Charles Clay. I think Clay could end up be the second most targeted player on that team easily. They pick him a boatload of money to not just block four million dollars in the last two years. They're gonna two years is what he's gonna make. They're gonna throw them the ball and that's gonna eat into Watkinson's time. I like Watkins, I just don't like him as a one. Yeah. If you're rolling with sam Watkins is a one, you're in trouble. Yeah, give him to high three. I'll be old with it, Marcus. Anything else? Uh? Nothing that that that about covers is I think you guys are pretty much So No, do not use Sammy Watkins as a wide receiver one Robb on your team next year? Next middle back? Question? Would you want? Oh, this is from guru at au Nick five. Would you want the eighth and seventeen or the twelfth pick this year in fantasy? So basically, do you want to be the eighth pick or the twelfth pick? Uh? This year? Fans in fantasy? Essentially, Yeah, this is and this is for a twelve team league. I'm assuming standard scoring, guessing there's some sort of trade on the table. So you would think, you, man, you gotta be able to draft successfully from any spot that you're given eight and seventeen, you're you're not so much in the middle, you're kind of in the in the second half of of that that first round. I would much rather have the eighth pick. But but then you also can get two really good players at twelve and thirteen, whereas at seventeen you might miss out on somebody that you might otherwise have gotten. So say at twelve, say if I go after a running back, I would say Jeremy Hill might be there, and then at thirteen I might be able to get des or Calvin or because you know my philosophy of going running back wide receiver typically uh in the first couple of picks. So I like that at the eighth pick, I'm getting maybe Forte maybe c. J. Anderson or potentially Lashawn McCoy. What does that smark you got in your face? I know you want to take Andrew Luck, but I'm not going there. I don't want him. I want him, but you've read my mind, I know. Let me tell you why I love that number eight pick. First of all, I hate drafting at the top and at the bottom of of every fantasy draft. To me, I mean, seriously, fifty of the fun of fantasy is drafting. That draft day for me, I mean, look, I'll get everything. I'll is just frustration exactly. I get my bucket, a KFC, a couple of forties. I'm ready to rock and roll. What that's right? This is a Snoop Dogg video. This is a tradition in the co household. Draft day comes around. In my league of record, it's it's a bucket of fried chicken, It's a couple of six packs, and we're rocking and rolling. It's some pepto afterwards. That's absolutely true, especially damn. And the thing is, when you pick at the top or the bottom of the draft, you can't think about your pick. I mean literally, it's just let me just grab the two guys I like and then just move on. And then I gotta wait forty five minutes from my pick to come around. That's no fun. There's a lot more strategicy when you have to pick a fifth, six, seventh. Anybody got a dictionary to look that up? And and and that's why I love it. I love I love getting that eighth pick and then and then trying to stretch out my picks. You know what I'm saying. Maybe we're in the city in the fifth round, and I'm trying to wretch your pick. Maybe a guy that I'll take in the fifth Maybe he'll be there in this I'm not sure, but that's part of the fun of drafting for me. So I'd much rather have the eighth just based off of pure fun value now this year, especially because I've said it a million times over, I'd love to have the eighth pick and take a quarterback. Just just let me have the guy. Just let me have Andrew Luck. Let me let me just have Andrew Luck in the eighth pick. I mean, we'll stand, we'll stand aside. And I think all it depends on is how a Unick five's board stacks up. There are two players that he definitely wants to have in the maybe his top fifteen. Then take that twelve thirteen picks. You can two of them. If you've got guys you like that stretch, If you want to have no fun or something, take that twelve pick eight. Grab grab your first guy because you have a better chance to get your first guy, and then see who's there the second one. Can't wait. I hope I get the eighth pick on twelve. Rond. Honestly, I wouldn't mind having the eighth pick, just because there's probably one There's there's always one guy you're kind of targeting in that first round, and you want to make sure he's there and you have a better chance of getting him at eight then you would at twelve. Plus. I do like James thought that, you know, when you're at the back end of a draft, there's no point of scheming and trying to like playing out like you know, like trying to put guys in your queue and stuff like that. In an hour, you can start thinking about what you're gonna take. You the turn, you're like, oh, maybe this is They're not gonna take a tight end. But then the tight end round starts, You're like nope. And then you're like, but that decision has already been made for you, is what I'm saying. You know, you're playing, you're playing on the I mean, it's no fun being on the back end because literally, just take two guys that you want, just move on. Just eat your chicken, all right, all right? Should we go to the next second. Yeah, that needs to be a catch phrase, by the way, just eat your chicken. It's like coconus smile. But for me, it's just you know, eat your chicken. Hey, wait a minute, isn't Pepsi the official sponsor for the NFL? Yeah? Whatever, game, just drink Pepsi? Sure, all right, Look, it's it's not for a segment we're calling bust a Move, so don't just stand the move. It's a series that is the brandchild of MG Marcus Grant. You can find it right now at NFL dot com Slash busta Move that would be bus t a m o v E bust Move. Every week, Marcus Grant is looking at some of the biggest fantasy bus from and avalue, evaluating whether those players are destined to remain duds or could they return to the limelight that could they be studs once again and possibly some serious draft bargains. We're gonna start with Colin Kaepernick. Man A very disappointed to say the least finished of the sixteenth best fantasy quarterback. And man, I'll tell you what, he absolutely fell apart late last year. What does bust a Move say regarding Colin Kaepernick? Can he come back to form? I think we've seen the best of Colin Kaepernick. I mean, I think he's hit his fantasy ceiling. And I think he'll be better than he was last year. But if you're thinking he's gonna jump jump back and be a top ten quarterback, he's gonna be a QB one for you, you're gonna be disappointed. I think he's a guy who is kind of a matchup based starter. He's a nice backup to have on your bench. But um, you know, last year I watched just watching his tape, he's inaccurate. Um, and he's kind of one of those guys who is an athlete playing quarterback as opposed to being a quarterback. Uh, you know, just flat out. So I think I think we've seen what Colin Kaepernet can do. And uh, you know I said before I said last week on the podcast, I wrote in the piece they could just sitting him down and make him just watch Russell Wilson tape over and over again, like on in, I think he'd be a better quarterback. But I think I think he is what he is right now. His his saving graces, his legs. From a fantasy perspective, that's where he can make a lot of hay for your fantasy team. Uh. He's worked on his accuracy. He worked with Kurt Warner in the offseason. A couple of questions I have though, is number one boy, I mean that offense is has got some question marks, especially in terms of of the options that he'll have in the passing game. Uh. Yes, they brought in Torry Smith, Michael Crabtree has gone. Vernon Davis disappeared last year, although I think he bounces back. Um, And Kuan Bolden is another year older too, so he's gonna be an intriguing sort of QB two. But he's not someone that you're drafting with the thought that he's going to come back and be a top ten fantasy I have no idea who he's gonna throw two next year, no clue. But that being said, well we know, we're just not sure how well it's going to be executed. Now, now that being said, um, I feel like we say the same thing every year about Cam Newton, and I get that last year he was I don't know about you know what I think co is on some of those pain killing I'll tell you right now, absolutely, because Camp was the top four fantasy quarterback is first. But I'm talking about situation. I'm taking I'm talking about situationally, we're talking were. We say the same things about Cam Newton. The guy's got great legs, but he doesn't have any targets, But who cares. Let's just run him out there, and and he's gonna he's gonna use his legs to pick up enough fantacy points to somewhere cracking at the top five. He wasn't a top five quarterback last year. I got that. But he did come on strong late last year and he's awesome had targets. Last year, he was just injured. Yeah, he was two right. He came in, had the ankle surgery, then he heard his rib, then he had the car accident. It was sort of a mess for him. But at the end of the year, like you mentioned, he came on strong. He started to get hot, and you and where his numbers were the most intriguing for fantasy owners. Look at his rushing totals over the last four weeks. He ran it. He found the end zone. It was very, very very good to start Cam late last year. But and that's what I'm trying to say about Colin Kaepernick. Look, I get it, he's not that big, physical, bruising guy like Cam Newton is, but he's got great legs. He's got great speed. I love the cannon. He's gotten the right. It's not very accurate, I get that, But he can squeeze any throat, uh that that he wants. Again, not terribly accurate. I get at that. But Colin Kaepernick, to me at least has, as Mike said, I mean, beyond interesting upside to me what I drafted him. Absolutely there is what am I telling. Am I saying that he you should draft him as a guaranteed quarterback one? No way, absolutely not. But again, a rotational guy who may late develop or heck, maybe he carries you early. I don't know, but I think there's gonna be a three game stretch where he figures it out, and then he'll unfigure it out, and then he'll figure it out again. But I think there's gonna be stretches next year where Colin Kaepernick really doesn't merge. We'll talk about his teammate. You mentioned it, Fabs Vernon Davis. He had thirty six Fantasy points total last year. He had sixteen in Week one. He had twenty Fantasy points over his last fifteen games. Man does he come back? Vernon Davis? Marcus Grant. I think he does I really do. I actually like what Vernon d has to offer this year. Um, you know, we always talk about how awful the tight end position, as we mentioned it earlier. Was he last year? He was bad? No, he was bad. He had had some nagging injuries. The one thing that surprised me looking at him from last year the drops and that was kind of out of character for him. And he's a guy who generally had good hands. Last year he struggled dropping the football and right now I'm chucking that up to it kind of just being a bad year for him. Everybody gets one. I think last year was kind of his so I I just everything else I saw on him on tape I really liked, and so I think this is the year he starts to bounce back, in part because there's still so many unknown pieces in that offense. I mean, Tory Smith has been underwhelming in his career, and Kwan Bolden, for as good as he's been the last couple of years, is still on the downside of his career, and you wonder how much longer he can keep that going. I think this is the year that you can get Vernon Davis for a good draft price and getting him as kind of a mid tier tide in one. Yeah, he's someone who if I don't draft uh one of the five best tight ends on my board, I will try to go after him. You're top, hoping, hoping that he turns it around. Well, Ron Julius, I think we could basically, No, not Julius, I think we could basically. I'll say it in stereo. Right, it's Gron, it's Graham, it's uh got Kelsey exactly. And then Martella s Bennett. So because Gates dropped out of there. Once he's suspended for four games, Uh, I think Geep Chris will start to utilize Vernon like he was utilized in the past. Uh. Steve Wise, she was an NFL insider here at the NFL Network, told me that when he went to O. T. A. S. They were using Davis. They're going to use him. He won't be as bad as he was last year. He won't be which is impossible. As his best which was the top tight end, its best years were also like supremely touchdown dependent. I looked at that both those years where he was like top two, top three, like almost fifty. That's that's tight ends a little some Yeah, but they weren't quite that high. What he has on his side from a value perspective this year is that the tight end position is bad. It's really bad. I mean, we're hoping that guys like zach Ertz, for example, breakout finally. Uh. You know, we're hoping that the Lanny Walker can be to what he was again last year, or that Jordan Cameron can avoid the trainer's room and actually play fourteen to sixteen games. So that's one of the things Davis has on his side, uh, is that, you know what, he could end up being a top ten tight end in fantasy in because the position is so weak this year. You know what's crazy is that people talk about, well, why is the tight end position from a fantasy perspective so weak? It's a lot. It's it's it's very similar to why the running back position has been weakened considerably in fantasy and in real life as well. For the first time, the vast majority of NFL offenses are using tight end by committee. That's what we're seeing. We're seeing two tight ends being utilized in different sets. Guys aren't out there because some guys are blockers, some guys are pass catchers. And we're seeing these committee approaches at the tight end position, and that is why there's such a steep drop off from the top. Let's just say two or three guys, uh to two. Now you know the bottom the rest of the league basically. But yeah, you're right, Vernon Davis a very interesting, intriguing player because he's an athletic freak. My only question about Vernon Davis is his head a hundred percent in football? I'm not a hundred percent sure it is. That being said, there's gonna be a ton of targets in San Francisco. He's interesting to me. All Right, we move on Keenan Allen. After a thousand yard rookie season, he had a big times off more slump man seven eighty three yards, just four touchdowns. That was following again, a thousand yard eight touchdown rookie year. Here's my thing about Keenan Allen. The scary numbers for me last year he had more targets and more receptions than he did in his rookie He just was just straight up less productive. Does he bounce back markets I think he does. I mean, he's he's a guy who I think when it's all said and done is one of those consistent kind of wide receiver two guys. I mean, the big difference when you look at it between his rookie year and his sophomore year was yards after catch. I mean, he was a he was a yak machine when he was a rookie. You know, he's sotasy like the yak machine machine. I might have to do that. Um. That was one thing that that disappeared for him his second year, because you're right, he had more targets, he had more receptions. The yards were down, the touchdowns were down. But I think I think he's a guy who I mean we saw coming out of out of Cow. The big knock on him is that he's not a guy with a lot of straight line speed. He's not a burner in that respect, but he runs great routes. He's got very consistent hands. I mean, you put the ball anywhere in his in his area code, he's gonna hold onto that thing. So I think as long as he's consistent like that, he still has a good quarterback in Philip Rivers who can deliver the football for him. And it will help that there's no Antonio Gates for the first month of the season. There's gonna be potentially more targets coming Alan's way. So he's a guy who bounces back again. He's a wide receiver too. If you're looking for something more than that, then he's not gonna be your guy. But if you're fine with him being your second receiver, I think he's gonna be good for you. And we're hearing good things this offseason about him being more focused, more determined after having a bad sophomore season. And uh, I wouldn't be surprised if he has eighty or ninety catches, maybe see some more time in the slot this year. Uh So Alan is a guy that I do like. I think Marcus is right. He's in that number two wide receiver category. Uh won't be won't be a number one maybe a little bit useful in PPR leagues two because I think the targets will be there. You know, I was speaking of the targets. You know, you mentioned it. Gates is gonna be out for the first four weeks, and I thought, Oh, that's gonna be a boon to Keenan Allen. But then I started thinking about, you know, they drafted a guy like Melvin Gordon great out of the backfield catching the football. Uh and Danny Woodhead is coming back as well. That dude eats up a lot of targets as well. I don't know, he had a hundred and twenty two targets last year. I don't know if he gets more than that. I gotta think he's gonna get less than that. I'm I'm concerned about it. I'm I think I'm the lowest on them here because I mentioned this on the pod last week that in Philip rivers ten years as a starter, he's only had a thousand yard receiver, including Antonio Gates, six times in ten years, and one of those was Keenan Allen's rookie year. The most yards he's ever had thrown to a receiver is Vince and Jackson, who had and sixty seven. And he's just a totally different dude. Rivers is a great quarterback, but he spreads it around. He's not one that feeds his number one receiver or and his offense has never been geared towards that. And like you said, you've got Woodhead, You've got Gordon Malcolm Floyd is still there, Stevie Johnson is there. Who is everybody thinks he's like old and passed his prime, guys only like twenty eight years old. He's still put on some good tape for the For the Niners, Ladarius screen is their gates is gonna come back. I just think they're gonna spread the ball in that offense, and I think the a wide receiver too. Asking price for Allen might be a little too rich, I might agree, but but let's just go around the horn. Well, what's the what's the draft price? What? What comfortable? What round? Are you comfortable? Uh? Taking the count product five? Round five? It's too rich for me. I'm saying five or six, prepending on your league ten or twelve teams. Yeah, I would, I would say six or seven. Yeah, I'm gonna. I'm gonna. You know, I probably say six or seven as well. I don't. I don't know if I see the upside there depends how my draft falls though, too. That's a very good point. I just don't know if I see the upside. But but again, UH love his skill set. Just as you mentioned, they spread that ball around. Can I leave the room before we mentioned this next player? We'll make it quick. Cordaryl Patterson, the next man on the list of yeah, bust a move again NFL dot com slash bust a move if you want to read, uh pretty in depth. Peace on all these guys, but but we'll start with you, Marcus. Look, he had an unbelievable Week one, a twenty pointer. I believe eighty points total over the next fifteen weeks. He was absolutely awful last year. Lightly regarded Charles Johnson, the wide receiver, not the defensive ent, became the number one wide out. Kind of I guess with Teddy Bridgewater, Um, what do we expect from the uber athletic but not terribly skilled wide receiver Cordaryl Patters. I expect him to continue to be uber athletic but not terribly skilled. Um, at least not terribly productive. You know, you look back and we all got excited about what we saw from him at the end of his first year, and you know, we all, we all, we all bought in. We all thought it was gonna mean big things for his second season. And I think what we overlooked one, you know, the small sample size, but more than that is that he was so dependent on big plays. I mean, it wasn't he wasn't the kind of guy who was going to compile a tin catch, you know, hundred and five yard, you know, in a touchdown sort of game. I mean, he was the guy who was going to get you three catches and one of them might go for seventy yards in a touchdown. And so when that stopped happening, his production went away. On top of that, you look at the fact that he just was not a good route runner obviously, never really learned the whole route tree, and for a guy who was really fast, didn't have a lot of explosive this like, watching him come off the line was really frustrating. Coming off the line of scrimmage, was not getting open, was not just doing a whole lot there. And that was part of the reason you saw guys like Charles Johns and surpass. It's why you saw Greg Jennings, even at his advanced NFL age, getting a lot more run. And so look, I think at this point the Vikings have realized that maybe Cordarol Patterson isn't the guy they hoped he would be. Uh. Certainly with Adrian Peterson coming back, that's going to be a big change in what they do offensively as well. Maybe you know, maybe it helps that he won't be the center of attention anymore. But I mean, I'm not I'm not drafting Cordarol Patterson. If i am, it is literally as a fifth wide receiver. He's my my last pick before I'm looking at a defense and a kicker. Does adding a guy like Adrian Peterson? Does that help someone like Corderol or does it hurt a guy like him? Because you know, you figure these NFL defenses they're gonna have to be spread out a little bit. Maybe it gives a guy like Corderyl a little bit more roomed operation. Well, it helps all the wide receivers in that offense, but that's not gonna help Corderol Patterson run better routes, get open, or be smarter Gridiron exactly. Yeah, he's not great. I can't blame I'm saying this about the NFL wider. He's not great catching the ball. That's the that's the problem. That's the problem with Cordono Patterson. So again, uh, that that would be a hindrance, and yet it generally does not bode well for that profession, Uh, Cordello Patterson. So I think we're all in agreement here. Maybe fifteen round, thirteenth round, fourteen something, super super late. He's a guy you take him at the end, you hope maybe you catch lightning in the bottle. Alright, Uh, Pierre Garson another wide receiver. I mean, just an unbelievable campaign. But then in the off season the team added de Sean Jackson and guess what the waiter he got no tips. Last year man thirteen hundred yards, five touchdowns and fifty yards hors. Last year he went from thirteen hundred yards to seven fifty. There weren't any injuries that we heard about around Pierre. He just wasn't utilized in the offense. What do we make of Pierre Garson? Well, the targets were away down right. I mean, he had a hundred and thirteen catches the year, but didn't he still lead the team in targets though last year you might have. But they were split up quite a bright and Deshaun Jackson became the go to guy there. You had a lot of different quarterbacks under center. We had r G three, her Cousins, boy had Kirk Cousins. I mean, all these guys were under center. So it was hard for any of the wide receivers to really get comfortable with any of their any of their signal callers. And honestly, I mean if you look at his numbers, I think that one year was the ceiling. The year every other year his numbers were pretty close, and they were all under nine hundred yards, uh, eight hundred yards, seven hundred yards somewhere in that area. And he never really was a guy who scored a lot of touchdowns either. And remember this is somebody who played with Peyton Manning, yeah, Andrew Luck guys like that. Yeah, no, I completely agree. I mean I think that was kind of the anomaly there. I mean what we saw from him last year is more in line what his with his career numbers have been. And he's a guy who's been a volume play I mean even the year he caught a hundred and thirteen passes, had a hundred and eighty one targets, I mean, which is crazy. That's a crazy And we have to look at what his targets were last year too, because how did the way down I drove back to one oh five, you know, and he catches sixty eight passes. I mean he's not really an efficient sort of guy. I mean, he's got to get a lot of targets. In order to rack up a lot of catches, and so you know last year seven fifty two yards, three touchdowns. I think the touchdown number maybe comes up a couple not a lot um, But in terms of catches and yards, you know you're looking around, you know, seventy catches, maybe seven hundred yards. I mean, I think that's just who Pierre Garson is. I'll all say on the matter, is I'm not trusting anybody catching passes from r G three? Well there's that that that's my hashtag analysis team. Is he draft amazing? How quickly things turned for him his rookie season? We all love to football and then no, but I'm talking about r G three, and now I mean barely draftable, rightly draftable. I don't even think he's draftable. Life comes at you. Where are you gonna? I don't know what I've seen him taken in a mock? Yeah, already I have no idea where barely draftable? Um, Pierre Garson speaking of barely draftable? If those are your projections for the guy, where he's going to top out at eight hundred yards, four or five touched, is he draftable? Oh? I mean that sounds like a waiver wider guy. If I've ever heard of one man, he's draftable. But again, it's a it's a late round, you know, you're looking around thirteen sort of thing. But why, I I guess my question is why, why waste the draft pick? If you're projecting a guy to be eight hundred and three, just to me, just give me somebody. I'll take anybody else he just I'll take anybody. Maybe you have anybody anybody I'll take. I'll take an injured rookie Patterson. I'll take court Darryl Patterson, Michael Crabtree or Pierre Garson. Neither I'll take neither one. You have to take one. Oh absolutely. My My whole draft, My whole draft philosophy is, if you're projecting a guy to get you know, less than nine hundred yards and less than four scores, you don't draft that guy. He's got no he's got no upside. At least give me somebody young who I have no idea what kind of production they'll have, but maybe he might he might do something. So you would draft a guy like Devin Funchius over Pierre not even a question. I would do that, all right. Last player on the list. Oh boy, it pains me to say Doug Martin on the list here didn't go to No, he did not go to Actually wrote last year, I wrote a very extensive piece on Doug Martin. Did you like him? I did like him because you didn't have to admit that. I know that being said, I like, hey, look, I like him. I liked him last year because I like the idea of him teaming up with Jeff Tedford. I thought Tedford was gonna feed him the rock you never had upen to. Tefford didn't even take the OC job really because of health concerns. And Doug Martin, I mean, he just absolutely fell off a cliff. I mean, he was maybe one of the worst fantasy busts uh in fantasy last year because guys were paying third round draft prices. Yet do you remember Doug Martin that once the preseason it started to creep into the regular season, he was seeing all of the carriers and people were jumping back on the bandwagon what I was saying, and boy, three point seven yards per carry later, it was tough. He was on the waiver wire in a lot of leaders, and that's what I'm saying. He was one of the worst draft picks you could have made last year because of his draft price. I mean, guys were taking him late second, mid third and not getting paid off to say the least. Marcus Grant does Doug Martin does the muscle Hamster. I know he hates the nickname. It doesn't matter. Does the muscle Hamster? Does he get back on that week. I just though the last couple of years it's been less muscle, more hand stir Um. I'm not I'm not counting on it um. You know, because of what you guys talk about. The yards per carries have been down, the fact that that backfield has been such a jumbled mess when you look at Martin still being there, and you know, Bobby Rainey is still hanging around. They've still got Mike James, Charles Sims was getting into the mixed last year. You know what I remember to Marcus is the the year before when Martin got hurt and he was bad, and then all the guys came in after him and played well. Remember Rainy rushed for like a hunters yards against Seattle against Mike James's and then Rainy had some good games. So so Marcus, I didn't mean to cut you off there, but completely making making the point here that Martin wasn't even the best running back from a numbers perspective on that team. I also do wonder how that offense changes now that they've got Jameis Winston in there. You know, another year of Mike Evans is there. J is there. So you do wonder whether or not they're gonna start to put the ball up in the air a little bit more, which means fewer opportunities to run the football. Um out, Hey, look, Doug Martin had a good run. Yeah, he had that huge game against the Raiders when we all really got to know him, and every bell jumped on the band wagn I think I think that's the high water mark for him. I think that's it. That's it. Huh any hope at all for the muscle answer. I think there is help this year. I think we're all we're all bearing him a little too much. Um, let's not forget that based on like we said, he was not the best running back on his own team. It looked like at times on film, however, Uh new offensive coordinator Dirt Cutter like fought to keep Doug Martin on the roster this he watched the game type like game tape like what he saw. Martin's down like twenty pounds from what he used to be interesting. He's been taking all the first team reps. I mean now. The only trouble is there's a lot of smoke here, hight train and smoke screen thing. However, if this smoke clears and we actually see him taking first first team reps and showing more lateral agility now that he's down in weight, Levy on Bell's big jump from your one to two year one of your two also came when he lost a little bit of weight and gained some of that quickness that made him so dangerous last year. Um, if Martin can get that back right now, He's got like a round eight a DP on Fantasy Football calculate around fifteen on NFL dot Com. Seems obscenely late. I think if you're taking him in that round eight to ten ranges, maybe an RB four could be a lot of value there. Yeah. I couldn't take him as anything less than that, that's for sure. And I did my backfield projections last week. I only have him getting about two thirty touches on the year. Charles Sims is in the mix, although that hype train has started slow down a little bit because um Martin now seems to be back in the good graces and is the number one guy there. But if he struggles in that yards per carry average doesn't increase and the running game flounder as well. Who's to say that love Smith doesn't give Charles Sims a shot that's right at being more of a more of an offensive centerpiece, or maybe not a centerpiece, but featured or prominent in offense, especially in the running game. And Sims is also very good as a pass catcher, So Martin is really an early down guy who could see some goal line work as but Sims is gonna come in take some of the workload there in the passing game. I you know, it's one of those things where I almost don't want to use the example of of c. J. Spiller because we kind of like him this year because he's on don't team. Well some people some people do, uh, but do not draft list. C J. Martin had that one great rookie year and then everyone jumped on the bandwagon, including myself, and then in years two or three he was bad. So I think that's kind of what he is, Marcus, So give me a draft what he is again, He's an RB four for me. He's someone that you can probably take somewhere between rounds eight and round ten. Um, I don't know why he's going off the board and round fifteen on NFL dot Com because a featured back, at least close to a featured back is not gonna last past the ten point in any draft. I think. I think the reason he's falling is just because there is so much uncertainty because last year we saw so many guys run through that backfield, and I think people are just, you know, instead of trying to figure out which one it is and void all of them. If you if you also look back at Dirk Cutter when he was the O C with the Jaguars. I mean they had a run percentage of forty eight point eight or better three different years. But he had Morris Jones drewin for a Taylor. There difference if you're going to have that with Charles Sims and Martin Um actually did we what's the verdict here? What do you think does he come back to? Is is this a guy that you can get good value for if you're getting him in the ninth round. Let's say, is that good value for Doug Martin. I'm I'm looking more round ten ten e Levin for him, But yeah, I think if if you were expecting him to be your number four guy, if he's your bye week fill in, if the matchup is right, sure give him a shot. Um, it's just obviously keep an eye on that backfield because who knows what it's gonna be like by the time you get to a situation where you want to use him in your starting lineup. All right, bust a move again. You could find Marcus series NFL dot com slash Bust to Move and they're doing mock trafts right now on the website NFL dot com Slash Fantasy. Go to the website, sign up today and draft her free for Michael Fabiano, Marcus Granting, the whiz Kid, Alex Glhar, I'm James Cold, We're out m HM nine won two two