speaker-1: Water is becoming one of the defining economic challenges of the 21st century. But what if the future of water isn't about managing scarcity? What if it's about creating abundance? I'm Ben Hall, Global Flood Leadership Manager at GHD, and joining me today is Rod Naylor, GHD's global leader for water. Rod believes we're entering a water transition that could reshape our relationship with water in much the same way the energy transition has transformed how we think about power. So What does that transformation look like? What's driving it? And what will it take to build water systems that are renewable, regenerative, and adaptive? Rot, welcome to Nexus.
speaker-0: Thanks, Ben. Looking forward to it very much.
speaker-1: Well Rod, let's start with with your big idea. When you talk about the water transition, what do you actually mean?
speaker-0: Well, Ben, over history we've developed our civilizations, our communities and our economies based on free gifts from natural systems. The obvious example is fossil fuels and how that's driven the our industrial transformation and built the civilization that we live in today. But we're reaching a limiting point in terms of fossil fuels and we're growing towards the acceptance that we need to move from an unsustainable reliance on fossil fuel to a renewable approach to energy that'll sustain us into the future. The same applies to water, Ben. Historically, most of the cities and towns that we live in are actually where they are in the first place because of access to a safe and secure supply of fresh water. But that secure supply is limited just like fossil fuels. We're reaching the point in many places around the world where we're ex exhausting that service of that supply and reaching points of scarcity, limitations in what we can do and how we can grow and how we can support communities based on availability of that water. So As with energy, I believe we need to shift our thinking away from relying on natural systems to the extent that they ⁓ can supply, and then move towards the idea of renewing and regenerating those systems and renewing and regenerating the water that we need ourselves to take accountability for the water that's necessary for our economies, for our communities, and to sustain nature and the planet, rather than taking it all for free until we run out. This is obviously being exacerbated by Climate change, an increasing uncertainty in the availability and security of water, and also by degradation in natural systems. But it's also being exacerbated by our need for growth in economies. We need to keep growing in order to provide the economic opportunity and to serve the populations that we have. But importantly, those populations are growing and we still have, or we continue to have, big issues and concerns around equality. If we're going to solve those equality issues, it means bringing greater economic opportunity and participation and that in itself accelerates our necessary water use. So we have this impinging situation where our water availability is reducing through climate change and our demand, our need for water to be ⁓ a successful and thriving civilization is growing. That crunch point is ahead and if we don't make a transition before we reach it, I think we're all in some kind of trouble.
speaker-1: And that pretty much backs up something you said in a in a in your recently published Nexus article. One of the key things that stood out for me was was a quote that ⁓ from that was you said the water transition will be for the next thirty years what the energy transition has been for the last thirty and that's pretty much backing up what you just said then, isn't it?
speaker-0: Yeah. I think water has become the water the need for a transition and the and the challenges in terms of water security have become undeniable, in the way that constraints in terms of future fossil fuels and energy security became undeniable twenty or thirty years ago. We're seeing that happen now, I guess, this this summer in Europe, ⁓ with unprecedented drought, with with rivers at record lows, constraining transport. And I noticed last week even ⁓ some substantial nuclear power stations in the eastern half of Europe. being brought to a standstill because of the lack of water. So it's becoming undeniable, but it is a difficult and long and complex process. So whereas we started the transition energy some years ago, ⁓ and I think in in many places we've commenced that transition in water as well, it will be a long road. It's a huge change in terms of people's perceptions and behaviors and expectations. It's a huge change in terms of social license and awareness, but it's also a massive change in terms of infrastructure investment ⁓ and economic systems. That will need to change. So I think thirty years is actually ⁓ a fairly ambitious ⁓ target. But if we go from here out into the twenty fifties, if we haven't done that, I think again we'll look back in terms of generational inequity and be accused of just generation who didn't do enough. So you're saying
speaker-1: And we we are at a turning point right now, is that right?
speaker-0: ⁓ yeah, think we have to well my view is we have to take accountability as we've started to do for energy. We need to take accountability as this generation in the decisions we make and in the legacy that we leave generations in the future. And like energy, in a few decades' time, if we don't do that, the ⁓ the cost and implications will be profound.
speaker-1: The special idea behind ⁓ the water transition series, which is being published on Nexus, is that we're moving from scarcity to abundance, and that's what we need to do, is that's that's your point. So what does abundance actually look like in practice?
speaker-0: Yeah, it's a it's a good question. I guess as a philosophical idea, abundance ⁓ as a concept is to remove the constraints or the limitations that ⁓ are starting to be felt and are more likely to be felt that limit our ability to survive and to thrive. But that translates in many ways. It's not just that there's lots of free, fresh water. The first, I think, element is that it abundant looks like security of supply or the ability to ensure that we can make water available. For communities, for for cities and for economies. But it's not just that. Abundance also means that our natural systems are well cared for and the water quality and the ecology that it supports are also sustained and in fact improving and not degrading. And I think abundance also means that the implications of water, the cost of service, the economic opportunity that it and that it enables, the inequality that exists now is In some way at least on the process of being relieved and secured and removed of any constraint of water. There's many constraints on all of those things, but I don't think we can afford to allow water, which is critical in in all of those systems, to be the limiting factor on our human progress.
speaker-1: You spoke about the economic issues involved in this, and that's also one of the strongest arguments in your articles about the water transition. So how important ⁓ will water security become to economic
speaker-0: growth. Ben, I think it's it's absolutely critical as it is now. As we mentioned earlier on, energy our energy systems and our ability to transition to renewable energy is dependent upon available water. We're seeing ⁓ a great example at the moment in terms of the technology revolution and and data centers and digital capability. Our future economies, our future sustainability and equality will be technology driven. But in order for that to happen, we need to generate the energy and we need to operate the data centers and and the computational background. At the moment there's a huge tension in terms of our ability to accelerate that. Moving aside from some of the moral and other arguments about how we implement those those technical future, the fundamental ability to power it and to develop it is also contingent upon water as well as technology. The other huge area I think that doesn't get much attention ⁓ in the usual day-to-day conversation, but ⁓ certainly does in in the world of the United Nations is our limit ⁓ a constraint, our concern and our issue around food security and food systems. ⁓ with climate change dramatically changing weather patterns a around the world, the link between sustainable water, available water, and not ⁓ and not running out of that water for our food systems is actually critical. But higher than that, we also need to ensure that the ecologies which support those food systems are sustained. So it's not only water in the irrigation area for that we're trying to grow ⁓ the crops to sustain our humanity, it's making sure that there is abundant and available water for the natural ecosystems that support the food chain is also critical to underpin our economic ⁓ and social future ⁓ future survival and success.
speaker-1: And just one thing, just to clarify something. There would be some people out there who probably don't know exactly what renewable water means. Can you just explain that to us and can you tell us how it changes the way we think about water security?
speaker-0: Yeah. ⁓ I guess applying the the term renewable to water is a little bit new and and and different and interesting, I guess, for some people. But I think it comes from a fundamental preposition that we need to stop taking from nature and therefore degrading natural systems and as a civilization become accountable for our own needs without creating degradation. That brings into consideration I think the the concept of planetary boundaries, if you're familiar, which we exceed early in the year in terms of our annual year. We're taking more and doing more damage from the system, the our natural earth systems than we can sustain and therefore we're degrading. So the concept of renewable means that we need to stop taking and we need to start compensating for that by producing our own and in fact even going past that point and regenerating systems by providing water back to natural environment, by providing water back to natural systems. So there's a couple of ways to do that, I guess. The first, if we apply a circular economy mindset. Of course, is to use water more efficiently and better in the first place. I guess for the purpose of this conversation, ⁓ without the constraints ⁓ and the difficulty of doing that, let's assume that we do ⁓ a reasonable job of efficiency and of not wasting and losing water and minimize the amount that we need to take. And they're all good and valid initiatives that are underway in many locations and we can do more ⁓ globally. But then there's the concept of being able to reuse water rather than throw it away, and the concept of actually making new water for ourselves. The reuse water, the the opportunity to recycle and reuse water is one that also can be a little bit caught up in the conversation. By using water and throwing it back in the environment, we're not returning water to the cycle because generally by and large, we've damaged that water. We've polluted that water. Whether we've added nutrients ⁓ that damage downstream ecosystems, increase salinity through use of the water, or increasingly we're understanding what we're doing in terms of pharmaceuticals and other complex chemical Contaminants, microplastics. So throwing water putting water back in the river is not returning water in terms of reuse. Putting water back in the river is actually again relying on or taxing natural systems without being accountable for the economic cost and the ⁓ work or the ⁓ that the natural systems deliver for us. What we need to be able to do is not throw them back in the river, but actually keep the water in the system in a circular way and return it back to useful, beneficial reusers. There's many, many ways we can do water reuse and it's increasingly becoming an integrated part of our water planning worldwide, which is very encouraging. But there is a long, long way to go in terms of the percentage of water or the proportion of water that we take for the environment that we use more than once instead of use, abuse and throw away. The other way to enhance our water capability and water capacity is to make new water. There are Several ways to do this, ⁓ evolving technologies in terms of extracting water from air. I always like to point out to people that are actually burning fossil fuels. If you're in year twelve chemistry, creates water as well, but nowhere near in the in the capacity or amount that we ⁓ that we need to change our systems. And this is where desalination, by and large, comes in as the most climate independent and secure approach to making the water that we need and being accountable for it. Whether that's seawater desalination or desalination and reuse of other saline. bracky of shore inland sources. So that's the idea, if you like, of being renewable is to take accountability and to use those technologies to produce the water we need instead of or supplanting, taking them from nature or damaging natural systems by the way that we use water.
speaker-1: Sounds like you're saying we've solved a lot of the engineering problems, but one point you have made of which I read was that we need to solve the human ones. So what's actually holding the water transition back? Is that part of it?
speaker-0: Yeah, absolutely. Technologically, ⁓ all of that is feasible and proven and in place in some circumstances. The the difficult part, and this is why the reference back to the energy transition, is that people and systems need to change ⁓ to adopt new ways of working. The critical difference, I think, is the economic shift from taking free from nature and then being accountable for the real cost of sustainable water. That's a critical one. We're reaching the the limit of our natural systems, the bank of nature, and I think that's the imperative that we're reaching that drives the need for the transition. But as well as that, more importantly are the sociopolitical systems ⁓ and governance systems that we use to ⁓ to govern our society. It's clear that we need to make longer term decisions in the interests of future generations, but the socio political systems that we have at the moment do tend to prioritize short term benefit and gain for an inequitable proportion of of our world population. That human governance and public perception issue, I think, is the hi the biggest hurdle. And like the energy transition, we'll take time for communication and conversation, for innovation ⁓ to take place, ⁓ and for people to make the decision about whether we take advantage of nature for ourselves and leave nothing for future generations, or what commitments we're willing to make to take accountability ⁓ for sustainability across the globe.
speaker-1: So are you saying that we need to sort of move from sustainability now to regeneration? And if so, why is is sustainability no longer an ambitious enough target?
speaker-0: Yeah. It's a little controversial, I think, to say sustainability is not enough, especially since we're so far from reaching a sustainable proportion. But the way I like to explain it is it's not acceptable to me if we keep getting worse and worse until we flatline and things can't get any worse, and we call that sustainable because it stopped getting stopped bum degrading. To me, we need to move beyond that sustainability or the degradation of our natural systems to a point where we are fully self supporting and and renewable. And then go further to the point where we start to regenerate and replenish natural systems. Now that's a a noble ambition, but it's also vested in personal interest, I think, for us as a race. We still rely on the natural systems, as I mentioned, ⁓ of the planet. We've degraded and and damaged them. There'll never be a point where we don't use those natural systems. And as our population grows and our expectations of of life on the planet and of equality, social equity are evolved. We will continue to interact with and require those natural systems. In particular, I think the biggest challenge for us is the is the food system that requires on our ecology or relies on our ecology and the sustainable ecology on the planet. If we don't start to regenerate and put back, be accountable for what we take and repair the damage that were done, our ability to continue to provide a a thriving, sustainable way of life for a growing planetary population, I think, is compromised. This one probably goes beyond the thirty year aspiration for a water transition. But I think ultimately regeneration beyond sustainability is is the target that ⁓ humanity needs to have. And getting off the addiction to free water and taking advantage of the environment I think is an important first step in the next few decades.
speaker-1: You're talking decades now, not just ten or twenty years. So if we get this transition right, what does the water system of say thirty plus years from now look like? And what will we have to do differently to get there?
speaker-0: Well, it it looks like a situation where we have the means and and the economic will to make available the water we need for thriving communities and economies. That largely means a industrial water system rather than a legacy natural water system. But it means, as I mentioned, one that actually is cognizant of and contributes back to a natural system. It means not just water security, but also water quality is understood. And managed and responded to locally and globally in terms of how we do our long term planning to support those systems. And it means a full understanding and recognition of the value and implication of water and our water systems into our economic systems, into our social systems, into our longevity as a race. Once water and the importance of water is actually commonly understood to be foundational to human progress and not consequential. to local opportunity or luck, I think we may have reached a point where we've got full cognizance of ⁓ the importance of water and therefore the need to to be sustainable and secure. And I think that's a that would be a measure for me of what we look like in twenty or thirty years when we've reached the transition and we're on a different path than the one we are today.
speaker-1: Place to finish. Rod and Ayler, thank you very much for your time and your insight. Conversation is just the beginning. Over the course of the next year, Nexus will continue exploring the water transition, looking at the ideas, challenges, and opportunities that will shape the future of water around the world. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you next time on the Nexus Podcasts.
speaker-0: Thanks very much for your time, Dan. Brought to you by Nexus, published by GHD, Actionable Foresight.