US-UK Trade Deal Explained: How Government Trade Negotiations Really Work

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Hello, everybody, and welcome to the latest in our negotiating government podcast from Negotient, the consultancy that specializes in public-private negotiations.
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I'm Chris Brown, co-founder of Negotient, and I'm delighted to be joined today by my colleague Josh Flax, who leads our US operation.
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Hi, Chris.
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It's nice to be here.
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Hello, everybody.
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So, Josh, I think this is going to be a fascinating discussion, perhaps the most fascinating ever.
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Big, beautiful, making podcasts great again.
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I certainly hope so.
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You suggested this one, Chris.
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Why?
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I thought that last month's trade deal between the UK and US was a tidy little snapshot of all the moves that Trump likes to make.
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And then I realized look, we never really have any sort of clinical conversation about his style, which is rather bizarre, because there's actually a lot there to discuss.
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And, dare I say, learn from, whether you admire it or not.
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You know, you're right.
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Most people think they know his style just because they react so viscerally to him.
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But I feel most folks either dismiss his techniques as bluster or treat it as wizardry.
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Rarely do we hear people peel back the moves and really evaluate what's going on, as we can do as negotiators using our terminology and models.
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All right.
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So let's at least try an unbiased analysis.
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Let's look at the course of events that got them, the UK and US, to this deal first and see if we can tease out a few lessons.
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Great.
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I can take first shot at a recap if you jump in and keep me honest.
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Yep, get us into it.
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Right.
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Let's rewind the clock to April 2nd.
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The White House slaps a flat 10% tariff on everybody.
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Ally, rival, doesn't matter.
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That setup move turned 0% tariff from business as usual into a privilege only Washington can restore.
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Okay, so everyone wakes up and suddenly they're worse off.
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So the first path, just back to normal, looks like a favor, right?
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Yeah.
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And so then come these innuendos, reporters hearing whispers that Britain could perhaps improve its positioning relative to the tariffs if it opens agricultural markets.
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So there's some signaling there.
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That seems to cause some stir in the press and in the markets.
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And then London raises its hand, right?
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It says we'll go first.
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And of course, Trump is inclined to make it a bilateral, and Starmer goes for it.
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That's exactly right.
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And I didn't even mention Starmer's courting of Trump starting back in February, which was fully intentional.
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So there's some strategy and tactical moves on his end as well.
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We should come back to that.
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But let's keep going.
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Okay, so you've got just the UK in there with Trump.
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There's no sort of coalition to speak of.
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Weeks of focus work, back and forth insues, and normal civil service stuff.
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The Brits, we understand, think the deal is done, maybe just slightly in the US's favor.
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There's some sensible-looking trades in there.
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I think the UK was allowing some access to US agricultural exports that wasn't before the US is going to moderate its terrifying new tariffs on cars and steel.
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The UK is looking pretty happy.
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And then they get this unexpected middle of the night phone call.
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Trump calls Starmer.
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He takes a call.
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Ten minutes later, they've sealed broadly the deal they'd negotiated, but with a twist.
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Suddenly we've got the UK completely wiping out its ethanol tariff.
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Right.
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And ten minutes after that, Trump tweets biggest biofuel win ever, America first, while Downing Street issues a 200-word note that never mentions ethanol.
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Yeah, funny that.
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So, okay, stepping back, after the smoke has settled, what's really going on here?
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Who's winning and why?
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And as negotiators, are the things we can learn from it?
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Do you want to start us off?
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Yeah, sure.
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So first you've got a classic Trump setup move.
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Create the problem, then sell the cure.
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Initiate blanket tariffs first, then let's do some carve-outs.
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This happened as early as 2018 during his first term globally with steel and aluminum.
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And it also happened in 2019, specifically with Mexico, when things escalated over migration controls.
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It's cheap to impose, expensive for everyone else, and entirely reversible at his discretion.
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Yeah, and it's also closely related to another technique that Trump employs with quite some level of personal flair.
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Anchor high and land lower.
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Yeah, and we're not just talking about any anchor, right?
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There's some doozies he's had over the years.
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Yeah, he's opening to a bit extreme, right?
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25% auto tariff, Mexico will pay for the wall, quadruple defense spending across NATO.
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Anyone?
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By the way, this is a level of extreme that seemingly no one else can pull off.
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And that's worth noting as its own overarching practice note.
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We teach people about anchors and how these anchors have a way of kind of dragging counter-offers closer toward them.
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For Trump, they also give him the ability to craft a simple headline-friendly metric.
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Did we get the wall or not?
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Which helps rally the base.
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Yeah, I think that's right.
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And I think his real aim is just to shift like the whole overton window of what's possible.
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So, but what's really important is he does often revoke the anchor once he's hauled the zone of potential agreement towards his real target.
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So look at NAFTA.
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The NAFTA renegotiation starts with a threat to withdraw entirely, ends with what, a new name and a few tweaks to the dairy in automotive terms.
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Yeah, exactly.
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And so the anchor grabs the headline and then the retreat looks like compromise.
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What's next on your list?
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Okay, so the single biggest lesson for me looking at how Trump negotiates is he does have this incredible ability to apply this sort of laser-like focus on the other side's weakest point and exploit it, while telegraphing a complete indifference to any weakness of his own.
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So we are always working with clients to help them really think deeply about their counterparts' interests and options, walk in their shoes in particular, what no deal means to them.
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And Trump just gets his stuff intuitively.
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Yeah, so tell me, how does he apply that here?
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So consider this, right?
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The US is a massive economy, but it's still only about a quarter of the world production.
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And he's just initiated a trade war with literally the whole world all at the same time.
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Now, other presidents might worry that everyone would just take a common front and all refuse to be bullied.
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If they did, he'd have to back down and be utterly humiliated.
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Well, Trump doesn't obsess about that.
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He knows it's not going to happen.
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He's calculated, he knows how hard it is for other countries to adopt a united front, and that for other leaders walking in their shoes, he's forcing them into a really tough call.
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They might want to stand up to the US, but fear that if they talk tough, they'll just get left out in the cold if others don't follow them, right?
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His judgment is that most will therefore march to his tune, and he's kind of been right so far, with scores of countries reaching out to negotiate, just like the UK.
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Now, I would say we have to leave the EU and China out of this for the moment.
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Economically and politically, they're the only actors who can really stand up to Trump.
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And in the big picture, how this whole tariff ploy plays out will ultimately determine depend in a big way on what they both do.
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In terms of everyone else, though, at least, this tactic's really working.
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The genius of Trump's approach is that he focuses in on how others see their situation and he's comfortable making them uncomfortable, exploiting their aversion to no deal, even if no deal is bad for him, too.
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Yeah, and that's really well put, right?
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He's willing to exploit the weakness of the other side's Battener rather than obsessing about his own.
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Thank you.
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Yeah, exactly.
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The funny thing is, he's much more conservative than he likes to appear.
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He rarely, if ever, makes moves that he can't reverse.
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His instinct is actually to keep options open for as long as possible.
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And you know what?
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He talked about this 40 years ago in that Art of the Deal book.
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He never bets a house on anything, but he likes to cultivate this false perception in the minds of the other side that he's happy just to walk away.
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Shaping the other guy's perceptions in this way is very canny because he's shaping their sense of America's walk away power.
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It's like Nixon bombing Cambodia to strengthen his arm at the negotiating table with the Viet Cong.
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You know, Kissinger called it the madman strategy.
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Making the other side think you don't give a damn can give you quite a lot of power.
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So it's indifference on the surface, all the while knowing the steps are revocable, they're changeable.
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Tariffs can lift overnight, troops can stay or go.
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Right.
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And he knows that even if the final result is miles below the opening bid, he can still spin it as a whim because of how he's cultivated his image and frankly the state of modern media.
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He can avoid being held to account for that in a way a Starmore Macron would be if they set out such a bold anchor and then settle for much less.
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I want to get your take on something else, though, Josh.
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What do you think of the UK strategy here?
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So I do give Starmer quite a bit of credit here.
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He decided right from the start on two things.
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One, we are going to negotiate, and two, we want to go first.
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So let's take those in turn.
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The decision to negotiate.
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I'll bet some around him were saying, don't go there, stand up to Trump, align with Macron, put tariffs on the US in exchange, be robust, or you'll be accused of being Trump's poodle.
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Yeah, and there will always be voters in the UK wanting him to do the full U Grant in Love Actually, right?
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Dis the president and oppressor, then do a dad dance in number 10.
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Yeah, exactly.
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But Starmer, it turns out, had no truck with that.
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He did not want to try to look tough, only to later have to cave.
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And that's strategic clarity.
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One thing we always say to clients is protect your negotiating reputation.
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Don't bluster.
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Never adopt a stance you aren't confident you can maintain.
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Starmer did more than that, though.
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He opted to negotiate first of all the world.
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That's a pretty big move.
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And it's not without risk.
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Nobody knows what a good deal looks like when you're the first to go.
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So what if you settle and then Trump does a better deal with others next?
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Do you look like an idiot?
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Or what if you failed to do a deal at all?
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So why did he do it?
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Well, I think domestically it makes him look decisive.
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Make the news, be a man of action, and that's all well and good.
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But it's also a strategic negotiation play.
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He understood that Trump has needs too, specifically right at that exact moment with the markets reeling.
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Trump had a big need to show that his tariff policy was bearing fruit.
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And Starmer understood that very well.
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A first deal with a G7 country would be a prize for Trump.
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And Starmer will have calculated that he could use that to seal a better deal than he might get later, because Trump will care more about having a deal than what is actually in the deal.
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Okay.
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So let's cover the big drama, the big news story of this, that late night phone call.
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You've mediated plenty of high stakes late-night crisis.
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Josh, what happens when the phone rings at that hour?
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Yeah, sure.
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An unbelievable spike of cortisol for one thing.
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Hierarchies flatten, the principal makes the call, and people either aren't awake or are otherwise just unable to question the framing of it all.
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And by the way, Trump has taken his time to expertly frame what he puts to Starmer on that call.
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So you remove their ability to prepare for you and you move the goalposts completely so that now they're trying to save the deal because they have a press conference in the morning and victory to claim.
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It's the negotiating equivalent of a surgical strike.
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Okay.
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So you were giving Starmer Starmer a lot of credit before, but could he have stood up to that pressure?
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I mean, you said before that he realized Trump needed the deal too.
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Should he have called the bluff?
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We'll never know.
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This is one place where Trump's experience as a deal maker, and frankly, just his love for doing deals probably helps him.
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He's willing to put the other party in that horrible position and have them think, what if I lose this now?
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And dare them to say no.
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So maybe the UK could have refused, but they didn't, did they?
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Critically, the concession Trump was asking for was well judged, significant, but on something that Starmer doesn't have a really big stake in and probably doesn't know that much about.
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So Starmer's thinking, am I going to call Trump's bluff over this?
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And Trump loves putting the other side on the horns of a dilemma and gambling, that they'll take the easy option.
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It's what you said before.
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He ruthlessly focuses on the issue from the other side's perspective.
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Yeah, and you know, I think there's a more general lesson here, too, about the power just of taking control of the negotiation.
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It's something we spend a lot of time with clients on, right?
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Don't wait for the other party to set the terms, whether it be substance or process, you know, claim first move advantage if you like, take the initiative.
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Now, in this example, Trump did it very effectively.
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But here's what's funny: he's also had it done against him.
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So we said earlier that one of his trademarks is to keep his options open.
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And that's superficially attractive, but it doesn't always work for you.
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In fact, sometimes it can allow other people to shape his choices.
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William Haig was speaking about this in the Times just this week, how Netanyahu exploited Trump's ambiguity over his Iran policy, keeping US options open, to maneuver him into a military strike that Trump clearly wasn't originally planning to do.
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Very smart move from Netanyahu.
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So that's a big one to analyze.
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Um shall we complete the US-UK deal for today's podcast?
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Okay, so the conclusion of this trade deal gets us to our last technique, right?
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Owning the narrative.
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Or at least the first headline.
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Well, Trump's tweet hit 90 million feet before the British press had its morning coffee.
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Right.
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So first headlines do stick.
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Corrections rarely travel as far.
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And you can pivot from maximalist ambition to modest reality and still claim a trophy.
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That is, if you're Trump.
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It's a lesson to all.
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When outcomes fall short, relabel.
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It works because audiences remember headlines better than details.
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Storytelling, hey.
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Yeah, exactly.
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And so, Chris, what are we taking away from our chat today?
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Well, let's try and boil each of these down to a soundbite.
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If I say, if I start us off with first, if you can somehow shift the baseline at the outset, even small give backs look pretty generous.
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Yep, good one.
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I'll take the next one.
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Ambitious anchors can work in your favor, but make sure you have the flexibility to pivot when reality intrudes and the messaging to make it work for you and not against you.
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Okay, how about have the confidence to focus on what no deal means for the other side and recognize the leverage it gives you.
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Even if no deal's harmful to you, too.
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If the other side is more worried about it, you do have power.
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Nice.
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I like that one.
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All right, here's another one.
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Control the timetable and the story.
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They're the cheapest levers most people ignore.
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Yeah, for sure.
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I mean, serious negotiators understand the importance of process, right?
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Sequencing, timetable, light table, and light time.
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It sounds boring, but it's like a general choosing the field of battle.
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It's the essence of good strategy.
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Absolutely.
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And likewise for tactics, as Trump did with that final phone call to Starmer.
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Be willing to take the initiative and not so desperate to end the deal that you leave money on the table in the end game.
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Anything you'd add as well, Chris, for the good of the order?
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Well, maybe just studying the techniques of people you don't admire is still free training.
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Well said.
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And to that I'd add, and to sum up, Trump is an irrational, hard bargainer, in my view, and this works sometimes.
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For those trying this tactic at home, remember, Trump has the backing of the US government.
00:14:56.080 --> 00:14:59.679
You need to check on your bargaining leverage before attempting the same.
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All right.
00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:04.559
Well, we might agree to differ on whether it's irrational or not, but we definitely agree on the rest.
00:15:04.559 --> 00:15:07.440
And with that, it just remains for me to say thank you, Josh.
00:15:07.679 --> 00:15:08.399
Thanks, Chris.
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Such a pleasure.
00:15:09.679 --> 00:15:10.960
And thank you to the listeners.
00:15:10.960 --> 00:15:14.159
We'll be back soon with another podcast on negotiating government.
00:15:14.159 --> 00:15:22.320
In the meantime, if you want to know more about us and how we help those engaged in major negotiations like this, come find us at www.negotiate.com.
00:15:22.320 --> 00:15:23.600
Thanks for listening, everyone.
00:15:23.600 --> 00:15:24.159
Goodbye.
00:15:24.159 --> 00:15:24.879
Goodbye.