The Mo Egger Radio Show -- 7/20/26

00:00:00
Speaker 1: The three season through the playoffs. Here every snap of the twenty twenty six Bengals on ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports Station.
00:00:12
Speaker 2: Success. What's up, Good afternoon, Legger, ESPN fifteen thirty. Thank you for listening today and my thanks to Chad Rendel for pinch hitting last week. Hope you had an awesome weekend. Hopefully if you had to deal with any flooding issues, those have been taken care of. I know that was a colossal pain in the neck for a lot of folks in the Tri State area, specifically on the east side of town. I was off last week. I joke about load management season, and I have spent the better part of the last four or five weeks kind of working part time, and there's no real reason for me to get into this. We all get vacation time, some get more than others. Some don't use all their vacation days. I do not relate to that. I use all my vacation days, but I try to not use during football season. Really makes no sense for me to use them during football season. I'd take them with my kids off of school for the most part, and so for the last four or five weeks, I have not been on the air much, and so two things about that. Number One, thank you for bearing with me. Number Two, thanks to those who have filled in, which for the most part of this show has been Chad Brendle and I guess. As a third thing, I joke about load management season, and with the exception of a couple of days a little bit later in August, load management season is over. I'm stoked, I'm refreshed, I'm ready, I'm excited. Training camp starts next week. We have a lot to talk about today. Really good baseball guest in forty minutes on the draft, which happened kind of while I was away. Show preview is available on Twitter. You can watch it now at Mulleger thanks to share Facts Credit Union. I promised about a week and a half ago that when I came back from vacation I was going to start referring to that social media platform by its proper name. I'm not yet ready to do what. I still call it Twitter because that's what most people call it. So follow on Twitter and watch the video the preview on Twitter at Moeger thanks to share Facts Credit Union, the single greatest financial institution in the United States has branches all across Cincinnati. Become a member and learn about the the member, the membership benefits, the benefits of membership. Maybe I'm still on vacation. I don't know good at share facts dot org. That's share facts dot Org. I have a Joe Burrow guarantee that I'll give you in thirty minutes, and it's it's gambling related. If you want it to be, it doesn't have to be for me. It is that coming up in just about thirty minutes. Reds did something smart while I was out and will address it. Will they do something even smarter that a little bit later on? So Hunter Green pitch yesterday and he was fine. Red scored of a bunch of runs early. Hunter was sharp, He used the splitter. He didn't walk guys in two of his three starts. He's been good in one of them. That last start against the Chicago Cubs the Friday before the All Star break, he was outstanding. The Reds are in cell mode. Call it what it is. I hate that we're here. You hate that we're here. The deadline is a little bit more than two weeks away. This is where they are. They're in cell mode, and I wish the standings look different. I wish the season had played out differently. I wish this team was better. I wish the guys who have disappointed on this team so far this season hadn't disappointed. But you gotta accept where you are in life, and where the Reds are is way too far out from a wildcard spot, with way too many teams between where they are and the wildcard spot for us to really believe they can contend. Maybe something miraculous can happen over the next couple of weeks and they vault themselves into contention. Maybe a thirteen game winning streak a llah the Boston Red Sox is in the offing, but I'm not betting on that. So they're in cell mode and it's gonna be interesting to see who they move on from and what can they get, And frankly, what can they get matters a lot more than who they move on from. I think Tyler Stevenson's interesting because Tyler has hit the ball really well, swung the bat really well over the last five six weeks. Dodgers need a catcher. There aren't usually many catchers available at the trade deadline. You get Tyler Stevenson for a couple of months, would you be willing to give up something of value for him? Maybe the answer is yes, hopefully it is. By the way, the Reds have a catchings prospect that we're going to talk about it about thirty five minutes and Alfredo do know, who feels like he's ready to be the guy in twenty twenty seven. And then there's conversations about Nathaniel Lowe and Haanio Souarez and Brock Burke and Brady Singer obviously who pitched well in Colorado on a Friday night. But you're also going to read about Hunter Green. And this isn't irresponsible or idle speculation. I guarantee you the Reds are getting calls about Hunter Green, and you could understand why Hunter Green went healthy is really really good and if you trade for a Hunter Green to get him for a couple more seasons, I think it's fair to wonder our team's pouncing on the belief that I'm sure is out there, that maybe there's a rift between the Reds and Hunter Green, which we have talked about now for over a year. So you might not like it. I'm a Hunter Green fan. I subscribe to a lot of the theories that people have about how he's handled his most recent injury, and I agree with them, and I believe them, and I think Hunter Green should be held accountable for the way he handled his injury this past offseason. But I'm a fan of the guy. When he's healthy, he's among the very best pitchers in baseball. He's got a world of potential, a world of talent. Hopefully, whether it's in Cincinnati or elsewhere, he gets a chance to pitch every fifth day free of injury and can establish a pattern of health and prove once and for all that he belongs in the conversation among the very, very best pitchers in this sport. But I'm sure the Reds are having internal discussions about trading Hunter Green and what it would take, just as I'm sure the Reds are having internal discussions about trading pretty much everybody on the team, including Ellie de la Cruz, with the exception of Chase Burns, who just got a new contract, and Sal Stewart. Here's my question, and I don't know that either you or I could answer it. I can't answer it, which is why I'm asking it. Can you get back a return in a trade involving Hunter Green, that's truly equal to the true value of a cost controlled staff ace type picture. Now, I don't want to get into a semantics argument about who the staff ace is for this year's team. It's been Chase Burns. I think that's inarguable. But Hunter Green, when he's at his best, is a staff Ace esque type pitcher. Can you get back a return and that's truly equal to the value of a cost controlled staff ace A guy whose salary for the next couple of seasons is locked in, It's guaranteed, there is no arbitration, there's no negotiation, it is locked in. It is cost controlled, which is important for every team, but in particular smaller market clubs. I don't know that the answer is definitively yes or no, but I can't help. But wonder if you decide that you're gonna move on from Hunter Green, and you say yes to a proposed deal from another team, I cannot help but believe that his injury history, which is significant, and the fact that not only is his injury history significant, he just came back from his most recent injury, which required surgery, I can't help but think that that's gonna cut into what you're gonna be able to get for him, at least a little bit. I just I have a hard time believing, and I could be proven wrong. Maybe this is a moot point because the Reds don't trade him, and that's whether or not they should be open to it is maybe a different discussion that we'll have here in just a bit. But I can't help. But wonder is his value now at the trade deadline on August third, or just two weeks away. Is that gonna be undercut at least a little bit by his relatively extensive injury history. If the answer is yes, If the answer is yes, the teams are gonna give the Reds maybe a little bit less than they would had he had no injury history. I don't know that I'm that willing to trade him. I don't know that. I don't know. And he's gonna make two more starts, maybe three, I guess, between now and the deadline, and it may end up being such a seller's market that perhaps there's a team that knocks the Reds off. The Hunters should not be considered untouchable, just like Ellie Dela Cruz should not be considered untouchable. But the three weeks stint on the injured list. Notwithstanding, with Ellie Dela Cruz, there's one more year of team control, and there is a long, long, long history of durability. Despite the fact that he played through being hurt last year with Hunter Green, you don't have that, And so if the idea is to move on from Hunter Green and get a lot for him in an effort to get started on the future, that's fine. Can you wait till this offseason? Now you're gambling here a little bit. I understand that, right you're gambling on, well, okay, can you get through the rest of the season healthy? Your guess is as good as mine. Can he pitch effectively? I'm gonna guess the answer is yes, because he's got a track record of pitching well when he stays healthy. But wouldn't it make more sense to see if he can spend the next two months kind of re establishing at least a small track record of health and proving that he's put a little bit more distance between himself and the injury that had to miss the first half of the season. I also can't help it ask this, and I alluded to this before. If you want to trade Hunter Green. Is the motivation to maximize his value on the open market. Is it to get the biggest and best haul of prospects or even established big league players that you can possibly get, or is part of the motivation behind trading Hunter Green the fact that you're kind of tired of him, and like, I get where some of that comes from. Right a year ago when he was coming back from injury, you heard about some of the exasperation that people in the organization had with how Hunter was slow playing the injury, and you know, I to name one in particular, Mark Sheldon of Reds dot Com took some heat and I thought it was misdirected and unfair heat that he got because he was merely reporting with hear he he was hearing inside the organization, which was effectively that there was some frustration among some with the Reds, whether they're teammates, coaches, managers, front office ownership, there was frustration within the organization about how he was slow playing his injury, and there was frustration I'm sure this offseason, and by the way, understandably so, with how he handled his injury, where instead of having surgery right after the season last year, he had it during spring training this year, and that effectively cost him a half of a season. And I don't know that the Reds would be dramatically better had Hunter Green been available in May in June, but it would have been nice, right as the season totally fell apart. Would have been nice to have one of the faces of the franchise available. And so, yeah, man, there's probably some frustration or impatience or exasperation or maybe even anger aimed at Hunter Green. But should those things be the motivating factor behind wanting to trade him? You know, it's been brought up before trading Hunter Green. Typically, I've thought the idea of moving him was kind of asinine, but like it's become a topic and it's really crystallizing as a topic now because well, the deadline is a couple of weeks away, the Reds are in cell mode, and I'm sure teams are asking the Reds about Hunter's availability and what it would take to pry him off their hands. But I can't help but wonder, and I think this is fair, are they more open to trading Hunter Green because they're pissed off at him? Like, let's say there was no rift, if that's the word we want to use between the team and the player in regards to how he handled his return from injury last year, or let's say that this offseason everybody was on the same page in regards to how he handled the injury that put him on the injured list for the first half of this season. Would there be as much of a desire to move from him, move on from him as there may be if they do indeed move on from him. Are you trading him because, you know what, let's capitalize on a prized asset and get a lot in return. Or are we trading him because you know what, the relationship between the two is soured, and uh, we're mad at him and we're not on the same page, and maybe the relationship is never gonna be fully mended, and so let's move on. I'm not sure that's the best reason to move on from a guy who is gifted, as talented, as accomplished, and as relatively cheap as Hunter Green. Your thoughts, as always, are welcome. Five point three seven, four nine, fifteen thirty. Uh, you could also send me a tweet at moager thanks to Delta Dental. Delta Dental is building healthy and smart vibrant communities for all good to Delta Dentalohah dot Com. Aaron Layton from Jess Baseball is one of our best guests. He's gonna join us in about twenty five minutes. Us about the players the Reds have drafted, including a guy who seemingly has high risk, high reward with the eighteenth overall pick. We are nine days away from the Bengals first training camp practice, which means we're nine days away from our first training camp broadcast. I think I could speak for Tony Pike. I cannot wait. I cannot wait, and I cannot wait for this season for a lot of different reasons, not the least of which is because I think Joe Burrow can fulfill my guarantee. I'll tell you what that guarantee is coming up in just about fifteen minutes. But the Reds did something while I was gone that is exactly the sort of thing teams like the Reds need to do. Can they do it again? Next? On ESPN fifteen thirty. This is ESPN fifteen thirty. I'm Moegor. Thank you for listening today. Hopefully you're having an awesome Monday. Chase Burns has had a good week seven years, one hundred and five million dollars. Reds made it official during the weekend in Denver. This is exactly the sort of deal the Reds should be making for two reasons. One, the term is cost control. Cost control. Cost control is going to be a term we hear about a lot because you know, there's there's lots of different reasons why the owners won a salary cap, not the least of which is they want to increase their franchise values. They want to be able to sell their teams when they do sell their teams. They want to be able to sell their teams and get more money. In one way to do that, if you've ever sold a business, and god knows I haven't, but is to have some degree of cost control when it comes to you know, employee costs, stuff like that. Cost control matters for every team. Cost control really matters for a smallish market team. And you know, there's also the fact that this has been the sport trend. We've talked about this a lot. Tons of teams have done this with players who have either just made their big league debuts or in some cases have yet to make their big league debuts. You're obviously incurring some risk. It is a pitcher. It's a long term and in a pitcher. The Reds have made some long term investments in pitchers that at the time made sense and blew up in their face, most notably perhaps Homer Bailey. But if they're ever going to be able to keep their own guys beyond those first six years of team control, this is what they're going to have to do. And there's also something about like kind of getting ahead of the market. If you look at when Chase Burns really gets his first big pay raise under the new deal, it's the twenty twenty nine season when he's gonna make twelve point seven million dollars. If Chase Burns this season was making twelve point seven million dollars this year, he would be the sixty fourth highest paid pitcher in baseball. I'm gonna go ahead and say that in twenty twenty nine, twelve point seven million dollars, unless there is a drastic restructure of the sports economics system, twelve point seven million dollars will not have Chase Burns among the top sixty four highest paid pitchers in the sport. Twelve point seven million dollars in twenty twenty nine might have him closest to the one hundredth highest paid pitcher in the sport. We will see. His two thousand and thirty salary of fifteen point two million dollars in twenty twenty six would make him this year the fifty first highest paid starting pitcher in the sport. There are not fifty better pitchers in baseball than Chase Burns. His twenty thirty one salary seventeen point two million dollars would make him the forty fourth highest paid pitcher in the sport in twenty twenty six. There are not forty three better starting pitchers than Chase Burns. His twenty thirty two salary twenty three point two would make him the twentieth highest paid pitcher in the sport. There may be nineteen better starting pitchers in baseball this year, but probably not. His twenty thirty three salary, which is the last year of guaranteed money, twenty five point two million dollars this year would make him the fifteenth highest paid starting pitcher in the sport. At no point during the life of his contract is Chase Burns likely to be a top twenty highest paid one of the top twenty highest paid pitchers in the game. So if he is as good as we all think he can be, and certainly everything he has done since he's gotten to the big leagues would suggest that he's got a chance to be one of the best pitchers in this sport for a while. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. If he ends up being as good as we all think he can be, and if he could stay healthy. That doesn't mean he never spends any time on the injured list, but for the most part, his career is defined by health and durability. He has a chance to end up as one of the great bargains in the game, and if you're a team like the Reds, you're looking for as many great bargains as possible. Very good pitcher, relatively low paid, great bargain. The question now, is as good of a move as this is, and it's smart, and it's you know, it's a gamble, but it's the kind of gamble a team like the Reds have to make. One Are they getting it done with sal Stewart now? Sal Stewart has said that he has heard nothing about a long term contract with the Reds. There is nothing that's being indicated by anybody who's around the team to suggest that a long term deal for sal Stewart is in the offing. But you know, we've talked about this before this season. Ellie Dela Cruz is probably going to hit free agency and not be a Red after he hits free agency, and there are chances of signing Ellie Dela Cruz probably one up in smoke once they didn't get something done with him at the end of his second season. Sal Stewart is nearing the end of year one. We won't count for the purposes of this discussion the month he spent with the Reds last year. If we're doing this in a year and it's the middle of the summer and Chase Burns is the most recent long term contract they've gotten done with one of their young core guys, then the clock starts to tick on South Stewart leaving Cincinnati. And I know nobody wants to confront that. I know that's something about Elie Dela Cruz that nobody wants to talk about, But like that's that's that's where we are. This is kind of how the sport works. And again, maybe the lockout that we have starting in December leads to some sort of a major overhaul of the sports economic system. If you use history as a guide, that is probably not going to happen. But I don't know about you, but when I saw the Chase Burns thing last week, my first reaction was good, good, because this is the kind of guy you want to invest in. This is the kind of guy that you want to incur some risk for, and this is exactly the type of contract the Reds need to get done with players like Chase Burns. But because they got it done with Chase should not preclude us from talking about why they need to get one done with Sal Stewart. This has always been about understanding which guys that you're most likely going to want to be here in a couple of years, and which guys are likely to be making the most amount of money. Chase Burns was at or near the top of that list. Sal Stewart is also near the top of that list. If he's not at the top of it, that doesn't change. Three point thirty sports headlines are coming up. Aaron Layton from jess Baseball on the Reds draft and their farm system, and more coming up in just about fifteen minutes. I've made a Joe Burrow bet. Now I'll offer a Joe Burrow guarantee.
00:21:38
Speaker 1: Next, I want to know who's turning heads at Bengals training camp. We've got you covered. On the official home of the Bengals, ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports Station.
00:21:51
Speaker 2: Sports headlines are a service to Kelsey Chevrolee home of lifetime powertrain protection. Excuse me and guarantee credit approval from there family to yours for life, Kelsey chev dot com. Reds are in Seattle, first of three against the Mariners tonight and Andrew Abott and George Kirby on the hill. Cincinnati is coming off a weekend where they took two out of three from Colorado. M started the second half by winning two of three against San Francisco. Seattle is fifty and fifty on the season, half game behind Texas in the American League West. Nine to forty is Tonight's first pitch on seven hundred WLW. One note about what happened yesterday and Saturday in Colorado. The Reds tweeted this out a few minutes ago, so they got crushed on Saturday. Rhet Lauder gave up a lot of soft contact early. It was not helped by the fact that some of his fielders don't know how to wear sunglasses in the sun. They got crushed in that game, but Jose Travino had a nice day with two homers and Tyler Stevenson had a huge game yesterday with two homers and the Reds win in the series finale. That is the first time in team history in the era, which goes back to nineteen hundred, that the catching position had multi home run games in back to back games. The Bengals today announced that the New Year's Eve game against the Baltimore Ravens will be the first ever white Bengals stripe game. This is they're kind of combining two things into one. So the white Bengal thing during primetime games has been a thing for a while, and they've done the thing in recent years where they've striped the stands in orange and black. They're now going to do that in white and black, which should look pretty cool. I looked on Bengals dot com today and my section will be wearing black, which is great because I don't own a white coat and I'm not going to get one, but I do own a black coat and U sees Evan Tengsdahl adds to his all season list of accolades, he has been nominated for the All State AFCA Good Works Team, which recognized his student athletes for community service, academic dedication, and impact on and off the field. Two years ago, I made a guarantee and I was dead wrong. The guarantee was, if Joe Burrow plays seventeen games, the Bengals will be a playoff team. That year. The Bengals were coming off the season where Joe had gotten hurt. Jake Browning came in and played at the end. They barely missed the playoffs. That following off season. My take was, if Joe plays seventeen games, I cannot imagine a world where the Bengals missed the postseason. Joe played seventeen games and he was otherworldly statistically, maybe the greatest season of any quarterback in franchise history. But the defense was atrocious and the Bengals missed the postseason. I was wrong on my guarantee. I was not as prepared to make the same guarantee last year, so I didn't because the defense in twenty twenty four was atrocious and they really didn't do anything to it, and so I had seen it happen already. I sort of thought, if Joe plays seventeen games, they'll make the postseason. But I didn't feel as good about that. And how could you have based on how the way things have played out the previous season and how little work they did on making the defense any better from twenty four to twenty five. This year, I'm back to making the same guarantee, and I'll add to it. If Joe Burrow plays seventeen games, this is a playoff team. And I'll go ahead and say an AFC NORTHS champion. And maybe I'm undercutting the Ravens a little bit. The Ravens have a very good franchise. Lamar Jackson's awesome, an MVP quarterback Derrick Henrys in his like forty seven season. I'm not sure they have fixed their center problem. They do have a new head coach. If Joe Burrow plays seventeen games, the Bengals can take advantage of those things, and it might only take ten wins to win the division. We've seen that happen before twenty twenty one, maybe eleven. If he plays seventeen games, I'll guarantee you they make the postseason. Maybe I'll stop slightly short of guaranteeing they win the division, though I feel good that they will. But if he plays seventeen games and they make the postseason, he'll be the NFL's MVP. I was looking at this with Paul Danner Junior two weeks ago. It was, you know, bets we were most comfortable making, and I was really comfortable making a few one and Jamar Chase receiving yards over a few Joe Burrow overs. Now you're making those wagers based on his health, and same for MVP. He is not the odds on favorite FanDuel. He's fourth behind Alan Jackson and may some prediction market websites which I do not dabble and have Joe Burrow as the odds on favorite. If you are into such things, go for it. If you're not into such things, that's cool as well. I do feel like though, and I think we run into this sometimes in the NBA. Maybe we run into this sometimes in the NFL that you have a lot of folks who have votes who just want to make him MVP, who will say like it's his time. Twice he's been a finalist when he's played a full season. Once he was a finalist when he played a full season and his team didn't make the playoffs. I wonder how many of those voters, had the Bengals just found their way in with Joe O putting up the exact same numbers that he did in twenty twenty four, would have switched their vote from whoever they gave it to. And that year at the other finalists were Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Saquon Barkley. Allen won the award that year. I wonder how many voters would have switched their vote from whoever they voted for to Joe Burrow. Joe that season had more than eleven hundred yards more passing yards than the guy who won it. He threw fourteen fifteen more touchdown passes than the guy who won the award. Like, if they're a playoff team two years ago, there's a very good chance now. Lamar Jackson also was awesome that year, and it was a very close vote one and two Alan Jackson, then Barkley than Joe Burrow. But I wonder how many of those folks who voted for one of the other three would have voted for Joe had they just gotten in. So Josh Allen got his two years ago, he was a finalist last year. For what it's worth, I just feel like, if they're a playoff team and Joe has the numbers that we have seen him put up every time he plays a full season, and that's a big caveat because in three of his six seasons he's been hurt. But if he plays a full season, we know what the numbers look like. The number put him in the MVP conversation they have in two of the three years that he has. I wonder how many voters will just say, you know what, it's his turn. I feel like the number is going to be a lot. There's my guarantee. He plays seventeen games plus nine hundred Right now on FanDuel, he's your NFL MVP seventeen away from four o'clock. The baseball Draft took place, not this past weekend, but last weekend. I was not here for it, but I wanted to get on our guy, Aaron Layton, to talk about not just the draft, but the Red's farm system, guy who could be the starting catcher next year and what one major League Baseball team does that. The Reds seemingly can't figure out. Aaron Layton just baseball dot Com, a great guest joins us next eleven away from four. This is esp In fifteen thirty on Mowegor. One of my favorite folks to talk baseball with is a guy by the name of Aaron Layton from jess baseball dot Com, and we wanted to get him on around the baseball Draft, but right when it happened, I took off. So Aaron is here. Now I'll ask you about individual players, but start by giving me like a thirty thousand foot assessment of the Reds draft class.
00:30:12
Speaker 3: You go off the top right and it's this, okay, big boomer bus type of pick.
00:30:17
Speaker 4: But then from there I felt like it was pretty standard.
00:30:20
Speaker 3: It kind of felt like the best player available on the most public boards. And I don't mean that like a negative way. It just kind of felt like it was the by the book pick a lot of the way. You know, they go college, college, college, But the first college pick was very, very high variance. After that it was a handful of college picks that I think were a little bit higher floor, and that was the appeal. So to me, it was like as risky as we could be with the first pick and then balancing it out with higher floor guys with the subsequent picks.
00:30:48
Speaker 2: All right, balance the risk reward When it comes to Justin.
00:30:51
Speaker 3: Lebron, I mean, I think this is the most polarizing guy in the draft. You ask some people, they're extremely concerned about some of the trends that we saw. You ask other people and you say, this guy could be a superstar, and they're neither are wrong, right. I think that's the really interesting facet of this. I think what's most fascinating about Lebron is that he's he has this huge gap of you know, what you see when he's going wrong and then what the flashes of what you see when he's going right on both sides of his game. So he could be this superb defender at shortstop. He has all the tools to be, but he made eighteen errors. Right, The routine plays are a little bit frustrating, but then he makes these acrobatic, incredible plays. You see the athleticism, I think offensively kind of a similar story where when he's down in you see the plus power potential, the explosion just so much to like in the box but he regressed a little bit and there was some swing and miss. So I mean, to be able to get a player there that, you know, at the eighteenth pick that has the upside of Lebron is pretty rare. But at the same time, you know, you are accepting that this is probably going to be a bit of a process and some risk, and you know, I think the Reds have kind of signed up for that when it comes to their picks. Steel Hall, high school guy, but obviously huge tools, as high upside as anybody in the class.
00:32:03
Speaker 4: But also they knew he was going to be a little bit more of a process.
00:32:06
Speaker 2: It was there somebody that they could have taken that might have made a little bit more sense just in terms of a little bit less risk.
00:32:15
Speaker 3: It's interesting because again kind of in the eye the beholder, some had Lebron as a top ten pick, you know, in a top ten talent, and then others had him that I've talked to, you know, it's more of an end of the first round type of guy. So if the red skew towards that, you know, I can totally understand why they made that pick, especially at the eighteen spot. I think once you got to that range, it really tapered off, like in terms of I think the caliber of player, at least as you perceive it at this point of the draft, before these guys have made their pro debuts, Like, I think that was clearly the highest ceiling peaks piece available. I think you start looking at some arms if you wanted to go higher floor, or you have to do something, you know, super shocking, like the Red Sox didn't go with a super high floor bat and Jake, but that was a huge underslot deal and I don't think anybody was expecting that, So I don't know if there was a very obvious higher floor piece unless.
00:33:08
Speaker 4: They wanted to go the pitching route.
00:33:09
Speaker 3: I really liked Kate Townsend, who end up going to the Cubs a little bit later there. Ace Reese is a bat that a lot of people liked, a college bat, but he's most likely going to slide over to first, and he still comes with some swinging misconcerns. I really think when you go from the tier one bats in this class, and even just a couple of the Tier two guys that were hired for it, drops off pretty quickly in terms of just what you're looking at from the four ceiling combination, and I think for that reason, the Red said why not shoot for the stars.
00:33:35
Speaker 2: Here of their first eight picks, four of them are listed as shortstops. Now there's a part of me that says, well, that's the most important position. It's maybe the most difficult position. You could take a guy who plays shortstop and have him play at other positions. They still have Edwin Royo, for what it's worth, at least for the next few years. They still have Elie de la Cruz. Then there's a part of me that goes, you know what, I'm sort of tired of watching them try to take infielders and make them an outfielders.
00:34:01
Speaker 3: Uh.
00:34:01
Speaker 2: That is maybe a very myopic way of looking at things. What do you say to somebody who says, all right, these guys might be really good, but there's a whole lot of shortstop here before you find an outfielder.
00:34:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think the idea of eventually having to convert them into outfielders like is a little bit frustrating when you don't maybe have the outfield depth. But I think in general, if you go and draft shortstops, you're gonna be in a pretty good spot. Whether those guys end up moving over to to second base, third base, or even eventually the outfield. I think generally speaking, you're gonna be in a pretty good spot to you know, even if they can't stick there, you're gonna have a lot of positive outcomes. Whereas you know, I love the bat of Milevi LaVoo, but he's a first baseman, so if he doesn't absolutely mash, you're gonna be in a little bit of trouble there in terms of the value.
00:34:46
Speaker 4: So I do like the approach to.
00:34:48
Speaker 3: Shortstops, but I did find it a little bit interesting that, Yeah, in terms of a true outfielder, you didn't really see one of those until what the seventeenth round. But at the end of the day, if you draft the most athletic guy on the field that he's mostly on, which typically going to be the shortstop, he's going to be able to survive and have some success in other spots.
00:35:05
Speaker 2: How much have they helped themselves when it comes to replenishing the stockpile of arms in the draft?
00:35:11
Speaker 3: This is where it's interesting because I think they could have went, you know, a little bit higher ceiling, but I think in this instance they wanted to just kind of go with the guys that they felt like were higher probability, you know, big league arms, and I think Ethan Norby is a guy that, you know, look at some of the success that they've had with with the left handers, you know.
00:35:27
Speaker 4: I think about Andrew Abbit.
00:35:28
Speaker 3: I know he was a little bit earlier of a draft pick, but just seems to outperform the stuff gets out to the higher equipped than you would expect. I think Norby can kind of fit the bill of that where this stuff doesn't jump off the page, but he's a sneaky good athlete on the mound. He gets out the slider's probably the best pitch, but you know everyone underestimates the fastball, and maybe he gets a few more outs and he would expect. I think Tyner Horn is a guy that I think they're a little bit more excited about maybe what could be in terms of the ceiling there. But another just just interesting arm where you have a slew of pitches, decent command, and hope you can build from there. But from me, it felt like they were going more with the higher floor arms and guys that they felt like could plug in and you know, have some big weak success right away. But may not profile, as you know, number two or number three starters necessarily.
00:36:10
Speaker 2: Our guy, Aaron Layton is with us from jess baseball dot com. I think I asked you this. You joined me a couple of months ago when the Reds were close to bringing up Edwin Arroyo, and so I'll ask it again with the understanding that they've added to their farm system via the draft. Do the Reds have a good farm system?
00:36:30
Speaker 3: I think, you know, I think this gives them the opportunity to continue to lean into. Hey, if we're not going to have like the deepest farm system in baseball or whatever it may be, we have a couple guys that could change this pretty quickly, and I think the Reds just added to that with Justin Lebron.
00:36:46
Speaker 4: I don't think it's a bad farm system.
00:36:48
Speaker 3: I think it's right around the league average, maybe just below that. But the fascinating thing with them is if you look at the ceilings of the players that they have here, Alfredo Duno, I mean I'm higher on him, I think than most out there, and we've got him as one of the best catching prospects in baseball top fifteen overall.
00:37:04
Speaker 4: If it all colicks for that guy, he's a star. Steel Hall. If it all cooks for that guy, obviously he's a star.
00:37:09
Speaker 3: Tyson lewis huge power, some whiff and chase concerns, but if it all kits for that guy, he's a star. So I know that that's a big if with three of the guys at the top, but the ceiling is so high with them, and then you'll get Rodriguez swinging it and some of the other guys that have been performing pretty well this year. I think it drops off a little quickly, and I think they needed some arms that even if you don't get super excited about, you feel good about the chances of being big league pieces, and that's where they went. I still think it's probably more of an average or slightly below farm.
00:37:36
Speaker 2: You mentioned a name that I wanted to ask you about, Alfredo Duno, who I think you had eleventh in your top one hundred prospects. Right, So the Reds are I'll say likely. It's certainly a distinct possibility they're going to trade Tyler Stevenson. He's due to be a free agent at the end of the season, so even if they don't, he could walk and then I don't know that Jose Travino is going to be the primary catcher, which opens up room for Alfredo Duno to be the guy. Could he legitimately be the Reds let's just call it starting catcher in twenty twenty seven, And if he is, what can we expect.
00:38:10
Speaker 3: I think he's got a really good chance because this was the big and it's early, right, it's early in the Double A promotion side of things, but he has really just risen to the occasion there in eleven games.
00:38:22
Speaker 4: You know, I think you saw the strikeout right a little bit higher and high A.
00:38:25
Speaker 3: I think with patient bats at the lower levels, sometimes that can work against you, where this effective wildness of these pictures, you almost your approach can almost work against you because you're waiting them out and maybe you take the pitch that you were probably should have jumped on, and then you get later into account and he doesn't even execute properly and ends up working against you with the way you're being selective. Whereas I think if you have a plan at the plate in Double A and you're trying to kind of understand how the pitchers are trying to pitch you, usually they're gonna be able to execute what their plan was, and I think that actually can work in the favor of some of these guys have a really good feel for controlling their bats and knowing how they're going to be pitched to instead of kind of the random mystery of what pitch and what location the guy's trying to throw and where it actually ends up. And I think we've seen the strikeout rate drop as the years, progressing very quickly in the.
00:39:14
Speaker 4: Small sample at double A.
00:39:15
Speaker 3: He's very Samuel basioish with the orioles and the respect that he has all the tools to be a great defender, but he's still refining some of the finer things, like the arm strength is great. He's a phenomenal athlete behind the dish, but you know, the receiving could still be better. I think just the catch and throw in terms of just the quickness could be a.
00:39:32
Speaker 4: Little bit better.
00:39:33
Speaker 3: But when you see the power here, I mean, this is a guy with seventy raw power with a good approach that is just proving to hit I think a little bit more than people were expecting. Even if he's close to an average catcher, you're going to pallet that because of the power and especially how that would play in great American ballpark, the patients to allow him to maybe hedge some of the swing and misconcern. And again, I think the approach that's translating better as he's facing more experienced arms.
00:39:57
Speaker 4: I think it would be aggressive next year.
00:39:58
Speaker 3: But if he finishes the year with a great stretch and double A, I don't see how you can't give them a chance in spring training to try to win that job.
00:40:06
Speaker 2: All right. One more, and this is a question sort of from from left field. So we watch the Milwaukee Brewers every year run laps around the Reds, whether it's in the NL Central standings, whether it's when they play head to head, or when I look at various rankings of farm systems, I always see the Brewers ranked very, very high. It feels like they have this endless supply of guys who get to the big leagues. And some of these guys are players they acquire from other teams, but guys who get to the big leagues and they almost instantly stick, They almost instantly help. What are the Milwaukee Brewers doing that the Cincinnati Reds seemingly can't figure out?
00:40:40
Speaker 3: I think that the rest of the league almost can't necessarily figure out. I mean, they are my favorite people to talk to. I learned something new every single time with anyone in the player development realm. They are just so in tune with their players from a scouting to a player development side of things. They identify the guys that they feel like are going to fit their system and that they feel like they can maximize, and then the player development people that they have in place to be able to just go.
00:41:06
Speaker 4: It's holistic too.
00:41:06
Speaker 3: You have a lot of organizations to try to cookie cut this thing, right, Oh, we're going to go for the high carry fastball guys and the gyro slider off of that, and we're going to make you do it the same way as everybody else. And instead, I think the Brewers look at it and say, hey, this is a guy that's good at X and Y, but he's not great at Z. How can we make him better at Z? But the other guy may not be as good at why. How can we make him better at why? And it's a very individual approach to each player, and they're really effective at being able to communicate that thing. The one thing that I noticed the most with them though, is they picked their spots well it's not immediately welcome to the organization. Here's forty things that you need to learn. They let these guys in adversity a little bit and then they introduce some of the adjustments that they need to make maybe further along in the process. And it's not just overwhelmed them, overwhelming them with information, but they scout really well, they develop really well, and they know their players, and I think that's just something that there's no magic saw to it. I think it's just a lot of good people and a good position here, and the Brewers just communicate well from top to bottom.
00:42:06
Speaker 2: Well said, frustrating to watch, yet I admired them from afar Jess Baseball dot Com and incredible resource, especially as we get to watch the Reds go into cell mode. I'm sure we'll be bucking you around August third to get your take on some of the guys the Reds acquire.
00:42:22
Speaker 3: I'm very excited to see, you know, what kind of prospects they can bring in there, and I think this system with things, with some savvy trades, can get into the top third in the league.
00:42:30
Speaker 4: I know that is not what fans want to hear, though.
00:42:32
Speaker 2: What I want to do one year is at the trade deadline. I want to call you and ask you about the prospects the Reds have given up because they're in buymode.
00:42:41
Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent. I will say though, Alfredo Duno, I think is going to.
00:42:45
Speaker 3: Be a game changer for this org. Other guys, that's kind of up in the air. I think Duno can really shift things for this franchise.
00:42:52
Speaker 2: Hope. So, Aaron, I can't thank you enough. Man, Thanks so much. We'll do it again soon. Thanks for having me, Aaron Layton just baseball dot com way late. This is ESPN fifteen thirty. There go, they'd start at the hour because I don't know how to read o'clock. This is ESPN fifteen thirty. Imo Aggar, thank you so much for listening today. Having an awesome Monday. Brendanman and Jones on Baseball later on this hour. A question for those who want the Reds to move on from Hunter Green. And I didn't think I was gonna do this. I thought my days of spending the Midsummer talking about Trey Hendrickson were over, But at least for a segment they're not. I'll explain coming up in just about thirty minutes. I was talking before about Joe Burrow in a full season and what it would mean, and look at the track record is as they say what it is. When he plays a full season, he puts up MVP caliber numbers. He was not a finalist in twenty twenty one, the year the Bengals went to the Super Bowl, but if you looked at his numbers, they were comparable to the guys who were in the MVP com Twenty twenty two, he was a finalist. Twenty twenty four, He's a finalist. When he plays a full season, his numbers are terrific. And in two of the three seasons where he has played a full year, the Bengals have made the playoffs, They've won the division. I believe twenty twenty four will prove to be an outlier over the course of his entire career. Joe has been talked about a lot, and I was out of town for a lot of this discourse. And I will admit that I spent less time on social media last week that I maybe have in the last three years. But I saw the ESPN rankings of Joe Burrow as the fourth best quarterback in the NFL, and that's fine. To me, everybody has different criteria. Like I look at it as I guess two ways. One, who are the guys who are best at handling the mechanics of playing the position? That is maybe a little bit more limited view. That's that's not taking into account what players have accomplish, what's on their resume. It's who are the best at handling the mechanics of playing the position. Some by using that criteria will say that Joe Burrow is not me my own list, not that I actually have a quarterback list, but I think he's the best in the NFL at handling the mechanics of playing the position. Is he the most accomplished, of course not. He's not won an MVP, he's not won a title. He has been to one Super Bowl. I do think two things. One, if Joe Burrow is a top four quarterback, that's fine. I view this through a very limited very I would imagine frustrating for some lens. If my team has a guy who's in the conversation, I've got a shot. As long as Joe Burrow is in the conversation. I don't know how you can have a conversation about who the best quarterbacks in the NFL are not at least introduced Joe Burrow's name to the discussion. The moment that stops. This team's got a problem. You either have one of those guys you don't. You have a guy who you can't have the discussion of who the best quarterbacks in the NFL are without bringing up his name. And I don't do this to gratuitously pick on it because I'm a huge fan of the guy. I'm not sure there was ever a moment during Andy Dalton's time in Cincinnati or any legitimate discussion about who the best quarterbacks in the NFL were ever really included his name. If you decided to enter his name into the conversation, you would get laughed at. If folks are hanging out having a conversation about who the best quarterbacks in the NFL are and you throw Joe Burrow's name into the mix, you're not gonna get laughed at. You might have some who say he's not the best guy. You might have some who say, you know, he hasn't won an MVP yet. You might have some who say, well, he's hurt all the time, and so I'm not making him the best guy in the NFL. But you're not gonna get laughed out of the room as long as the Bengals have one of those guys. This has been my criteria from day one. Do they have one of those guys who in any discussion about the best quarterbacks in the NFL has to be brought up for the Bengals. Since at least year two, the answer has been yes, as long as that is the case. I don't know about you. I'm thrilled with who the Bengals quarterback is. I do think though, it is completely and understandably fair to when you're talking about these guys to talk about Joe Burrow's injury history. By the way, this is the part that Lamar Jackson used to get dinged for. That he doesn't get dinged for nearly as much, and he missed time last year. We do this with Hunter Green. Different sport, different position, different dynamic. Hunter Green has not talked about as being among the very very very best pitchers in baseball. Twice, he's been an All Star, he's pitched in some high stakes games and pitched very well. But why is he not mentioned as among the very very best pitchers in baseball? Well because he's always hurt. Now with Hunter, he's hurt every single year. He has not gotten through a full big league season without suffering an injury, and so that that changes the conversation. Joe, obviously different sport, has played three years where he has gotten through a full season, and he's been magnificent in all three. But yeah, you always use it in any sport a player's injury history. Joel NB just to use a name from the NBA, Joel MB is magnificently talented. Magnificently talented. I think it was just this year he crossed the five hundred regular season game threshold. Dude's been in the NBA for over a decade. You cannot talk about the best players of his generation. And introduced Joe l Embiid into the conversation. Because of the injury history, people hold it against him. It's okay, Hunter Green may do that right. He's marvelously talented. When he's on his game, he's really hard to hit. He's uber fun to watch, I think, for the most part, an easy guy to root for, But he's hurt all the time. Joe Burrow, in six seasons, has failed to get through a full season, and three of them that's half man like I multiple things can be true. I don't know how I have a conversation about the best quarterbacks in the NFL without mentioning Joe Burrow. I also don't know how you talk about Joe Burrow in his place in the NFL without talking about his injury history. It's extensive. It's more than just one year that he's missed time. It's three and some of them have been fluky and some of them have been you know, injuries that have occurred within the context of a game itself. But he is always hurt, and so he hasn't had nearly as much time as any of us would like to demonstrate what he can do. But as long as he's like one of those dudes who as long as we're having conversations about who the best quarterbacks in the league are, you've got to mention Joe Burrow's name as a Bengals fan, be happy with that, and then you know it's splitting hairs between who's number one. I am interested, and we get this guy on the air with us every single year. Mike Sando of the Athletic does this in a way that I think is best, where instead of ranking them, you know, one through thirty two or whatever. He separates the quarterbacks into tiars, t I e r s tiars based on feedback he's getting from NFL people, and I think it's better to do that. As Joe Burrow a Tier one guy. According to Mike Sando, I'm interested in finding out what the answer is. The last couple of years, the answer has been yes. I do wonder how last year's injury dingdom how last year some of the performances. If you remember how he played against the Ravens and the snow game last year, maybe that knocks him down or wrong. I don't know. If the Bengals have a Tier one quarterback, then if you think one of those other Tier one qbs is better, cool, fine, no big deal. But if they have one of those dudes, if he plays a full season, they're going to be relevant, They're going to be in the mix. And if you want to then separate them and break them down into top ten, top fifteen, top twenty, and you have him lower than me, that's cool. As long as they have a guy who's in the conversation and fine, awesome. I have not yet had time and I'm going to change that tonight before the Reds game to watch a quarterback on Netflix, which obviously features, among others, Joe Flacco. I'm excited to watch it. I've read good things, I've heard good things Joe Flacco last year, and this is, if you think about it, kind of remarkable. Prior to him joining the Bengal I had no strong feelings about Joe Flacco, which is remarkable if you consider the fact that he spent most of his career playing in the AFC North. Last year, I became an enormous fan, and it was the fact that he played well when called upon. But I thought when the season felt like it was circling the drain, he brought with him a level of professionalism and humility and humor that I thought just made him really easy to root for. And I'm interested in how that gets poor traded on Netflix. And I haven't had a chance to watch yet, and so excited to watch an episode or two before the Reds play the Mariners in Seattle seventeen minutes after four o'clock. Just a minute on Trey Hendrickson in the New Year's Eve game coming up here in just a bit. Speaking of hutter Green, if you want the Reds to trade him? Why stop there? Next on ESPN fifteen thirty four, it's Wednesday. Starting next they will have six open to the public, which are always awesome, a few open to a season ticket holders, and then a couple that we'll be at that aren't open to anybody, and we're looking forward to broadcasting from them. I said this two weeks ago. Had always been a wish of mine since I started doing this show, to be able to broadcast from Bengals training camp, because you know, training camp's fun. It's often been hard as they've worked out in the afternoon for me to be in studio and things are unfolding a training camp and you kind of feel like, all right, I've got to rely on things, you know, being posted on Twitter to be my ears and eyes, and I just, you know, I've always longed to broadcast from it. We finally got a chance last year. The Bengals were very helpful in giving us a place to post up Tony and I and then they moved the practices to the morning, and so we started doing training camp shows starting at ten o'clock in the morning, and then Tony would stick around and do since he three sixty until three, and I would go back and do the show, my show at three o'clock and just it was an awful lot of fun and thrilled that we're doing it again this year. So that's next Wednesday morning, starting at ten o'clock, broadcasting from Bengals training camp and looking forward to it. The New Year's Eve game I think is going to be really cool that coming up in just a bit. Started the show by talking about Hunter Green and the Reds maybe trading him, and look, Hunter for a lot of fans fell out of has fallen out of this, has fallen out of favor, and like, I get it, It's what happens when you're hurt a lot. It didn't help that he's his performance in the postseason last year was not good. He threw batting practice in that game against the Dodgers. He missed at an opportunity to maybe win some people over who are exasperated by the injuries. The way he handled his injury this past offseason earned him some I think very well deserved credit or well deserved criticism, I should say, um, And so I do wonder for some is the motivation to move on from someone that they're exasperated with or is it to really maximize on the value of an asset. If the idea is to maximize on the value of an asset, it's hard for me to believe that it doesn't make more sense to ride out the rest of the season with him and then see what you could get in a trade for him once he has hopefully established a little bit of a longer track record of health and really good high end performances. I do wonder this though, if you trade Hunter Green, you are basically saying, we don't think in twenty twenty seven, in whatever form a season next year takes shape, we don't believe that in twenty twenty seven that we can build a winner around a one to two punch in the starting staff of starting rotation of Chase Burns and Hunter Green. I think there's a lot of teams, whether they're going to be playoff teams this year or playoff teams later on this year, who would love to who would love to be able to say going into next year, we can build around a team that's got two guys at the top of their rotation is good and it's relatively cheap, as Chase Burns and Hunter Green. Part of why you want guys to be cost controlled is it's more money to build around them, and then think of like your core next year, you're still gonna have Obviously Elie de la Cruz Sol, though he is going to be in his first arbitration season, Sal Stewart is still going to be pre arbitration. Like your core is. Collectively, if you're the corp, is those four guys, and you could extend it if you want to, maybe some other players we'll see, but your core is going to be relatively inexpensive. If you trade Hunter Green, I think you're sending the message we're punning on twenty twenty seven. Now, I guess one could argue, well, if if you trade Hunter Green and get the right package of players in return, those guys can help you win in twenty twenty seven. I'm skeptical that that is a how the message would be received and b how the trade would be executed. It feels to me like you would be getting a lot of guys back who, while they may help you in the short term, are more likely to be better beyond twenty twenty seven. Can this team really afford to send the message with you and I already exasperated when it comes to our patients with it. Can they really afford to send the message that we're punning on twenty twenty seven before the twenty twenty six season is even over. And if the answer is yes, you gotta go ahead to do that, then why stop with Hunter Green? Like, why then not continue it with Ellie Dela Cruz. I know we did this a couple of weeks ago, talking about whether or not he should be viewed as untouchable, and I did a pole question, which we've got to do one today. But I did a pole question on Twitter and it got like three thousand votes, and the voting was pretty down the middle. I think it was something like fifty one and a half to forty eight and a half, with the fifty one and a half saying no, he shouldn't be untouchable. But if you're gonna pun on twenty twenty seven, you're crossing off one more year in the ELLE window, which then has only two years remaining. Now I get it. You could say, well, trade Hunter, get a haul of players back, use this coming season twenty twenty seven to develop them, and then hit the ground running in twenty twenty eight while you still have Ellie dela Cruz. I think the counter to that would be, if you're gonna do something as relatively brash as trade away a guy that not that long ago was considered among the faces of your franchise, and you're initiating a teardown and you're punting on twenty twenty seven, then really go for the teardown, go all in on it. If we're going to start to prioritize players who can help way down the road, why not then make Hunter Green and Ellie de la Cruz both available. Now. Ellie is having some recent defensive issues, notwithstanding is having a terrific year. Ellie is more popular, Ellie is durable where Hunter is not. Ellie plays a position where he's available every single day, can help the team every single day. Hunter does not. They're not apples to apples players. But if you're gonna trade away Hunter Green because he is ma the guy who can get you the most in return, why stop there. Why not make available the guy who could probably get you back even more If you're punting on twenty twenty seven. And again, that might not be the intended message, but it's gonna be the implied one that we can't win this coming season, So we're trading away Hunter Green and we're gonna build around Chase Burns and Sal Stewart and whoever we get in whatever trades we make on top of players who are in the farm system right now, why not then really go for it for the future and make Ellie dela Cruz available to I don't know that this is what they're wrestling with. I don't gather that Hunter Green is at all untouchable. I would wonder to what degree Ellie Delacruz is. I don't think he should be. But if you're gonna trade Hunter like we've done this, when the have done teardowns and rebuilds before, like, don't go half in on the rebuild, don't go half in on the teardown. If you're really gonna do this, And again, I'm not totally convinced that you'll get the most back in return for Hunter Green if you trade him now versus if you trade him this offseason. And frankly, I would be more inclined to build a team next year around Chase Burns and Hunter Green. But you might argue the Reds aren't capable of doing that, if they're not, as much as I hate to say it, then maybe make Ellie de la Cruz available. The Bengals New Year's Eve game is being talked about a lot of social media today. That atmosphere on New Year's Eve night has a chance to be incredible, and the visual at the stadium that night has a chance to be awesome, and that could only enhance the reception that Trey Hendrickson gets. Let's spend a minute on him next on ESPN fifteen thirty orts headline service to Kelsey Chevrolet, home of livetime, powertrain protection and guarantee credit approval from their family to yours for life. Got to a kelseyshev dot Comrades and Mariners tonight in Seattle, first of three against the MS. They've had a weird year. Uh their half game at of first place the American League West is not good. The American League top to bottom is not great. They're fifty and fifty through obviously exactly one hundred games. They have gotten an extraordinarily bad season, certainly relative to how good he was last year from cal Rawley Big Dumper. It has been remarkable to drop off in his production. He is batting and do what you want with the statistic batting average, he is batting one sixty three. His OPS is down from last year nearly three hundred and forty points. And a dude who last year for much of the season was the talk of baseball hitting sixty home runs this year has nine. Julio Rodriguez, who just spent about a week and a half out with a concussion, his production has dropped. Josh Naylor's production has dropped. The Mariners are still considered odds on favorites to win the American League. West I listened to Buster Rolney's podcaster in the All Star break. He still believes the Mariners are a good bet to win the American League. Their pitching is held up very well. The starter they have tonight, George Kirby, has struggled in recent weeks. He throws against Andrew Abbott nine to forty tonight's first pitch on seven hundred wl W. As we inched closer to Bengals training camp, the Bengals today announced their first ever white Bengals stripe. Which is gonna say which is? According to the Bengals, they say it's gonna light up a corpse stadium. That's right. I called it by its proper name. On New Year's Eve, Bengals and Ravens on Thursday Night five Football eight point fifteen. They're basically reimaging two of the franchise is what they call their most iconic traditions into one unforgettable night. And so they're asking folks who go to the game creating a coordinated stadium white, stadium wide white and black tiger stripe effect that they say will blend the intensity of the white Bengal with the visual impact of stripe the Jungle. They've done Striped the Jungle in recent years, where you know, a few sections will wear black if you will wear orange, in the next few wear black. And then they're gonna do that with black and white and we'll see how much Raven's purple gets worked into the mix. We'll see how much people cooperate. These typically have have been really cool looking and you know, look, I know for a lot of folks at the end of the day, all that matters is do they win the football game? And I'm kind of there with you, But the visual at the stadium on the nights they've had the stripeout has looked pretty cool. The white and black should look really cool. I looked online. My section is a black section, which is cool because I don't own a white coat. I never want to own a white coat. White coats get dirty. I don't want to walk around in a dirty coat. So I've got a black coat. Happy to wear that. That'd be cool. That game that night has a chance to have an atmosphere unlike any that the venue formerly known as Paul Brown Stadium has ever hosted. Now, there have been playoff games, there have been big regular season games. There have been awesome you know, crowds and atmospheres for primetime games. But you take like this mixture of things starting with New Year's Eve, continuing through the fact that this is the first time the Bengals will have hosted the Ravens in primetime in the regular seas in years. The possible stakes of the game, which could include the AFC North title, first place in the AFC North, a playoff spot for one or both teams, playoff positioning. It's going to be a game in all likelihood, I'm guessing of high consequence or at least that has some playoff ramification, maybe for one, perhaps for both, and it to be Trey Hendrickson's first game back in Cincinnati since leaving for Baltimore. I said this somewhat offhanded, and I'm not sure why I was out last week, but the week before I just I mentioned Trey Hendrickson and the New Year's Eve game, and I mentioned the fact that that night he is going to face, as they say, a chorus of booze. Now I am not in the business of telling people how they should behave, but I you know, if you go in your boo that's fine by me. If you go and you cheer, that's fine by me. I'm probably gonna boo because I think I'm gonna get caught up in the in the moment, caught up in the atmosphere, caught up in the night. And that's no knock on what Treys meant to Cincinnati. But I don't know. I have no idea. I mentioned this somewhat offhand, and I got an email here from Rodney asking why would Bengals fans boo a guy who I have called the greatest free agent acquisition in franchise history. Now again, to each their own, if you want to go to the game and boo the guy, go to the game and boo the guy. If you want to go to the game and cheer the guy, go to the game and cheer the guy. If you want to go to the game and really not pay any attention at all, that's fine too. I think though there's a difference between appreciating a player. You cannot find a Bengals fan who doesn't appreciate what Trey Hendrickson did when he was in Cincinnati. Again, I think that the greatest free agent acquisition ever, huge part of a super Bowl team, made iconic plays during that Super Bowl run, a big part of arguably the greatest team the Bengals have ever had, that twenty twenty two team that went twelve and four. A guy with a lot of big moments, a guy who played hard, a guy who you know, even two years ago when the Bengals were miserable, he gave that defense an a lister player. Like, they're not going to find anybody who cares about the Cincinnati Bengals who doesn't appreciate Trey Hendrickson. But I do think there's a difference between players who are appreciated in players who are beloved. T Higgins is a beloved player. Now you might go, what about Jamar Chase, he is too. I think T's in a little bit of a different category because it felt like for about five minutes that he was actually going to leave. And I remember that night when he played that game against the Denver Broncos. I caught the two passes he caught toward the end of the game, the outpouring of emotion, the things that were being said about him. It was obvious that night that even though it felt like he was going to leave, and that night it kind of did. This was a beloved player. Because there are athletes who come in, whether they become in as free agents or they get drafted, and it just it feels like they make a connection with the fan base and it stays. It's established, it's there, and then you add to it, like you know, he was a guy who requested a trade, but he's also a guy who when the Bengals offered him the franchise tag, he signed it. He showed up. You never got the sense that his effort was being compromised. And with with Trey, there was just a little bit too much of a me, me me thing, and you know, maybe that was the right way for him to handle his business. Again, I know, I don't know what Trade did while he was on the field is what matters most. For the most part, he was terrific, But it did often feel like there was not really this relationship between the player and the fan base that other guys have. And there are certain athletes who it feels like if they leave, even if they go to a division rival, that the relationship is still really good. And Trade struck me as one of those guys who when he left, folks might be sad to see the sac total leave, Folks might wonder how they're going to replace him. But it never really felt like Trey was a quote fan favorite. I don't know that over the course of his time in Cincinnati, I ever saw anybody where Trey Hendrickson's jersey to a football game. Now, okay, there's Burrow, there's Chase, they're Higgins, there's there's popular players, there's you know, skill guys are always I think naturally gonna draw more of that than others. But I think most Bengals fans really appreciated Trey. I think there got to be a fatigue with what felt like the unending contract issues and squabbles and hold outs and hold ins and other players engage in those things, but they never really took on the soap opera field that the Trey Hendrickson stuff did. And I think that has kind of cut into his relationship with the fan base. And I think the way a lot of fans are going to express that is going to be on New Year's Eve night when they boom. And again, if you go to the game and you share the guy, go to the game and share the guy. There are a lot of other things going on that night. How the game is played and what the fallout from it is is gonna matter a lot more to most of us. But I do think that when you combine the fact that he went to a divisional rival is only going to enhance the booze. The reception he gets that night is not going to be friendly, and I think that's gonna make the atmosphere, frankly, a little bit more fun. That is going to be insanity that night at the venue originally known as Paul Brown Stadium. Assuming the game matters as much to the Bengals as we hope it does. Quarter to five ESPN fifteen thirty Reds have done something really smart, really good they need to do it again. That coming up at five oh five on ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports station. Anything you may have missed on this show, anything you may have missed on this radio station. You know what the good news is, we record everything everything. Sometimes that's not so good news for the host, but could be good news for you. And so if you're listening to me right now, going, man, I wish Chad was here, Well that's fair and fine. Chad's awesome, and he was on all last week and he's been on a bunch recently, because I've been off a bunch recently. But you can go listen to Chad. Or if you're like, man, I remember when Most's show was good, Well, we recorded all those good shows too. Or if there's an interview you might have missed or something you want to hear again. We take everything and we podcast it as we say on the iHeartRadio app, and you could listen twenty four to seven. You could also listen to our shows live as they happen, anywhere you go, anywhere you go, anytime on the iHeartRadio app. Podcast of this show are a service of a long neck sports grill. We've talked about Long Neck Sports Grill for a very long time. Three locations in northern Kentucky an awesome place to post up on a nice summer night. You can listen to live music on the patio. You could you gotta have a cold one. You get some wings take advantage of their extraordinarily extensive menu, and each one of the three long Next locations extraordinarily easy to get two as well, So check out Long Necks in Wilder, Hebron or rich Wood. We can maybe take some phone calls coming up after the top of the hour. Five point three, seven four nine, fifteen thirty is our number, and eight sixty six seven oh two three seven seven six. We've talked a little bit about the possibility the Reds will trade Hunter Green, and when that question gets brought up, I have more questions in return. I will ask them coming up in the five o'clock hour. The clock is ticking on the Reds in the Eli della cruiz era. The clock is now also ticking on the Reds when it comes to one of their other players. We'll spend some time on that as well. And Paul Danner Junior, as always, is going to be with us tomorrow and One of the things we're going to discuss are the results of his annual fan survey that he did at the Athletic dot Com. It is striking what one of the results reveals. We'll get to that coming up in the five o'clock hour as well. Plus we'll recap the Reds Draft two. But right now it's time for Brenemant and Jones on Baseball on ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports Station. All right, there you go, five oh five, ESPN fifteen thirty. Moegger, that's me. Thank you for listening. I said this at the top of the show. My thanks to Chad Rendel for pinch hitting last week. Load management season is over. It has been awesome to be back, and a lot of ground to cover. More on the Bengals later on this hour. I'll start with this. So this kind of went down late last week while I was out, became official this week, and we have spent a lot of time, a lot of time over the last couple of months just wailing away at Nick Crawl, wailing a at the Red's front office. Some have told me gratuitously so, but this is this is what comes with losing. This is what comes with never delivering a payoff for people's patience. We have picked apart Nick Krawl's job performance, we've talked about his future, or we've wondered what he's good at. So I'm gonna start the hour by being fair. I'm gonna start the hour by doing something that is not that popular. I'm gonna start the hour by talking about something good that Nick Krawl and this front office have done. The Chase Burns contract seven years, one hundred and five million dollars is a really really good thing, which means that the front office, led by Nick Krawl, did a really really good thing. Now they've incurred some risk here. You have to acknowledge that there's risk with every long term investment. There is risk with every long term deal. There certainly are a ton of risks when you're in investing heavily in pitchers, and there's maybe not so much a track record, but there are examples that would give you pause when it comes to investments that teams or even the Reds have made in pitchers that didn't quite pay off. Chase Burns has been terrific this year, a deserving All Star. He has been everything that Reds thought they were getting when they drafted him, and more he has emerged as a staff ace. He has taken the ball in a lot of games this year where it felt like the season is about to spiral out of control, or at the very least the Reds are about to lose or get swept in a series, and he has delivered almost every single time. Chase Burns is an easy guy to root for. He is a very, very, very worthy owner of the title of part of this franchise is corps. Gotta love everything about Chase Spurns. Signing him is smart. Signing him is good. Signing him puts the Reds possibly in a position to have one of baseball's great bargains. Forget what he's gonna be making next year, a little bit more than two million bucks. Forget what he's gonna be making in twenty twenty eight, when the money really starts to kick in. In twenty twenty nine, Chase Burns is going to be making less than thirteen million dollars. Now, if bad things happen between now and then, you're gonna look at that as boys, that's a chunk of money. I wish we could do something else with. But but if Chase Burns ends up being as good as he has already proven to be. If he ends up being as good as the Reds certainly hope he can be, There's a very good chance that by twenty twenty nine, Chase Burns will be one of baseball's best bargains. If you look at that salary, twelve point seven million dollars, If you put that in twenty twenty six terms, that would make Chase Burns the sixty fourth highest page starting pitcher in baseball. There are not sixty three better starting pitchers in baseball than Chase Burns. And I can keep doing this as we look at the numbers as they escalate for the remainder of the contract. If you want to look at the last guaranteed year of the deal, twenty thirty three, Chase is on the hook to make twenty five point two million dollars, that would make him the fifteenth highest paid pitcher in baseball. He's got a chance, as the market change is, to be one of baseball's best bargains. This is the sort of deal the Reds have to make. Not only is it the sort of deal that a lot of teams are making a ton of guys out there, and we've talked about them all year long, who teams have signed to long term deals right after they've made their big league debut or in some cases before they make their big league debut. But more than anything, cost control matters. It is the great thing about Hunter Green, what makes his injuries a little bit easier to swallow is the control. The cost is controlled. It's not escalating next year. You're not on the hook for a larger pay raise. He's not making an amount of money that is so exorbitant that you're just looking at what he's doing and you can't believe that he's making what he's making. He is a relative bargain. He was a relative bargain last year when he was the eighty second highest paid pitcher in the sport. Cost control matters. Cost control matters for a lot of teams. Cost control matters for a team like the Reds that now can look at him no matter how good he is, and obviously they're betting on him being really, really good and go, you know what, there are no pay raises, we don't have to go to arbitration. Here's what he's going to be making. What he is making is probably a lot less than what he could be making had he been able to hit arbitration. Oh, and you've bought out a couple of years of free agency. You will get Chase Burns for all of his twenties, and you'll get Chase Burns for a couple of seasons beyond those initial six years of team control. This is also important. It's also really important for a team like the Reds because if they're ever gonna have a prayer of keeping their best guys beyond their first six seasons, beyond those six years of team control, then this is when they have to get deals done. I mean, Ellie Dela Cruz, we're already and sometimes to the point of exhaustion. We're already talking about life beyond Ellie Dela Cruz. And that's still more than three years away. But it's viewed as and understandably so, it's viewed as an inevitability. Ellie's gonna walk, It's gonna go play for somebody else. He's maybe gonna go be Baseball's first billion dollar player. He's leaving. They have no chance of keeping him. You're now just wondering what's he gonna cost next year when he is arbitration eligible coming off a good season. Elliot to play recently has been awesome in the field. It would be cool if he wore sunglasses when the sun was out, but they have I think most of us would acknowledge. And if we're wrong about this, then awesome. They have what feels like next to no chance of keeping him beyond twenty twenty nine. Why because they didn't sign him years ago. You only get a couple of years. Only get is so so much time to ensure that you're gonna be able to keep your best guys when you know they're set to hit free agency. With Chase Burns, you get a couple of those seasons. You're not paying for any of his past prime years. You set yourself up to enjoy one of baseball's great bargains. And this is something we've talked about as it relates to Sal Stewart, because the salth Stewart thinks Sal is obviously having an awesome rookie season. We've talked about a Sal Stewart contract extension, and the pushback guy get is well, you don't have to do it now, and it's about asking yourself. I think with Sal, and now with Chase Purns. It's about asking yourself, who are the guys that we're gonna want to try to keep beyond those first six years when they can hit free agency. Who are those guys who are the guys on the team right now that are most likely to want to have six years from now, seven years from now, Well, Chase Burns is on that list. The list ain't very long. Also, who are the guys who are likely to still be here in three years? Who are the guys who are likely to be making the most amount of money? Who are the guys then since they're likely to be making the most amount of money, we want to control their costs as much as we possibly can. Chase Pearns was on that list. The list ain't very long. Sal Stewart was on that list, and he still is. Like it feels like there's almost nothing the Reds could do to turn this season around to the degree that we would like, and that sounds a little fatalistic. They haven't even yet played one hundred games. They did win two out of three this weekend against a very bad Colorado team, although a Colorado team that's not nearly as bad as last year's team, but still they're in cell mode. The math is really really hard when you look at where they are in the standings, and I'm not even talking about the National League Central when you talk about where they are in the standings in relation to the last wild card spot. You look at the games between or the teams between where they are in that last wild card spot. Barring something unforeseen, barring something that this team has not yet shown a capability of doing. The twenty twenty six season is going to go down as a failure, but within it you can have some successes. Getting the deal done with Chase Burns is one of those successes. Now it's time to work on one with Sal Stewart. Now, Sal has acknowledged that conversations have really not gone anywhere to the degree that there are no conversations happening right now. The Reds certainly have intimated that there are no ongoing conversations between them and Sal Stewart or anybody else. But one of the reasons why you control Chase Burns cost is it maybe enables you to spend some money down the road that you might not ordinarily be able to spend. Perhaps that makes it easier to get something done with Sal Stewart if you want to be able to point to something you've done, and Sal remains on that list of guys, who are if you look at the team right now, who are the guys we're most likely to still go to want in six seven years? On that list, who are the guys likely to be making the most amount of money in three years when their arbitration eligible, Sal Stewart is at the top of that list. You got one done with Chase, Get one done with Sal. Now. This discussion takes place while we're wondering what the Reds are gonna get for the players they're likely to move on from at the trade deadline, and again, their on field play could change this conversation over the next couple of weeks, it doesn't feel like much is gonna happen to actually change the conversation about the Reds being sellers. Tyler Stevenson's interesting because of the position that he plays, and because of the fact that he's really swung the batwell over the last six weeks, and because everybody needs a relief picture. Maybe brock Burke, maybe somebody's gonna give you something of value for him, or maybe Pierce Johnson and maybe Nathaniel Lowe can fetch you something. Maybe there's a market for a Uhanio Souarez. He certainly has hit the ball a little bit better recently. But the name Hunter Green has also been a part of the conversation. And like I get it, Hunter has fallen out of disfavor with a lot of folks, maybe you, because of the injuries and how he's handled his injuries and the timing of his surgery this past offseason. And he's back, and he's healthy, and he threw the ball pretty well yesterday, though not nearly as well as he threw it in that Friday night before the All Star Break against the Chicago Cubs, when he was awesome. He toyed with that night, and it's been a week and a half. He toyed with a really good offensive team. So he's back. There probably aren't going to be that many pitchers to be had. We'll see what a team like Detroit does, but probably aren't going to be that many pitchers to be had at the trade deadline. If you're a buyer who have as much potential and as much talent as Hunter Green, and so I'm sure I would be willing to bet on this. I'm sure the Reds are getting calls from teams asking about his availability, and I'm sure the Reds internally, Nick Krab, Brad Metter, others are having discussions about Hunter Green, trading him and what they might be able to get back and return for him. This is not idle speculation. It has been suggested that some folks are acting irresponsibly. I cannot imagine a world where the Reds, as sellers at the trade deadline aren't being asked about Hunter Green. I'm sure they're also being asked about Elie Dela Cruz. Couple of things I would wonder about a Hunter Green trade. Number one, can you get more for him by trading him on or around August third, or if you traded him in November if you're help bent on trading him, and you don't have to be, but if you are hell bent on flipping him as an asset for a collection of players, that can give you a jumpstart on twenty twenty seven and beyond. Can you get more for him trading him August third or trading him in November or December before the lockout or even after the lockout. If we assume there's going to be an end in time for a season to be played next year, because while there's a lot of talents, a lot of upside, a good resume, and a couple of years of team control, there is also pretty extensive injury histories not yet gotten through a full big league season without going on the injured list. And he's going to make at least two more starts, then you know there's gonna be Assuming those starts go okay, he'll have five starts under his belt since he came off the injured list. And yet I still can't help, But wonder is the potential package and return for Hunter Green compromised a little bit by the fact that that injury history is still there? And could you mitigate that a little little bit and perhaps make his value a little bit higher if you have him pitch for you over the next two and a half months. Now, maybe that all goes up and smoke if he gets hurt again, And unfortunately, nobody would be surprised if Hunter Green got hurt again. But oh't know. I also can't help but ask this, if you trade Hunter Green, are you sending the message that you're giving up on twenty twenty seven now? If you send the message that you're giving up on twenty twenty seven, what you're saying along with that is we aren't capable enough of taking a core of Chase Burns, Sal Stewart, Hunter Green and Elie de la Cruz and building a winner next year around that core. We're not capable of taking that quartete of players. And if you want to add Nicolodolo to the corps or because they don't trade him, and I would imagine they're not gonna because the guy can't stop getting blisters, and that's maybe a whole different discussion. If you're admitting we can't build a winning team around Chase Burns, La Dela Cruz, Sal Stewart and Hunter Green, well you're admitting failure, and call it what it is. You are admitting failure because the first thing when they started this process years ago, and god knows, I've gone down this road many times where we've talked about when this process to rebuild started, but the idea first was to build a corps, build a core of guys that are worth building around. And maybe the corp isn't big enough, but that has happened, and perhaps over the next two and a half months of the season, more players will be added to it. Maybe noel Va Marte will put himself in a position to be considered one of those guys if anything happened over the final two and a half months of the season figuring out what you have with him and making a decision one way or another about Matt McClain have to be on that list. But the first goal was let's let's come up with a group of guys that kind of make up who we are. Here's our core, and then we go from there. Well, I would argue with Hunter, Chase, Ellie and sal you've done that and you still have to pun on twenty twenty seven because you can't build around those guys. You're admitting, you're admitting that what you've tried to do for years now hasn't worked. You're also making me wonder instead of cutting into that core by making trades, shouldn't we find some people who are perhaps capable of using an offseason to build a team around those players that's better than the one you have in twenty twenty six, maybe better than the one you had in twenty twenty five. I also just wonder, man as much as like this year has been so off putting and so unenjoyable from so many different perspectives, as much as we all sort of smile and nod and go okay, another year of the Reds being in cell mode. Man, if you're a fan of this team, can you really handle being told yet again to wait even longer. It's one thing to trade away Tyler Stevenson whose contract is going to expire. It's one thing to trade away a bullpen guy like Brock Burke or a Pierce Johnson or a Caleb Ferguson somebody like that. It's something else to trade away a guy who a year ago was the starting pitcher in your team's first postseason game in a full one hundred and sixty two game season in twelve years. If you trade Hunter Green, you're telling people we can't win next year. What message does that send? How is that message received? If you're a fan of a team that has told you for the better part part of the last three decades to keep waiting, I am way late twenty two after five o'clock five one, three, seven, four, nine, fifteen thirty is our number? Eight six six seven two three seven seven six works as well? This is ESPN fifteen thirty, Cincinnati Sports Station Gay. This is ESPN fifteen thirty. Thanks for listening today on Loweger. I went along that segment, so I don't have a ton of time, but let's let Mike from Melbourne, Kentucky use it. Mike, you're on ESPN fifteen thirty. Good afternoon.
01:32:29
Speaker 5: Oh thanks for taking my call. Very much, time.
01:32:34
Speaker 3: Bow.
01:32:35
Speaker 5: We need to look at the lifetime numbers on these players, Honors, Greens, lifetime numbers average, you know, get rid of me, eas eas hurt year after year? Is lifetime numbers aren't that good? And you know Chase Burns, South Stewart have it. I would keep build around them. Three David Dayla Cruz, his lifetime numbers aren't that good? Look at these players lifetime numbers.
01:33:15
Speaker 2: Wait, wait, wait, you don't think Ellie, you don't you don't think Elie Dela Cruz's numbers are very.
01:33:19
Speaker 5: Good, not lifetime.
01:33:23
Speaker 2: So, sir, what do you mean lifetime writes.
01:33:26
Speaker 5: Out a lot his whole career in the major leagues? Yeah, he you know, he's every get that well?
01:33:35
Speaker 2: No, no, so so so should I should I weigh his twenty twenty three numbers when he was rookie. Should I weigh them as equally did the same way I weigh his twenty twenty six numbers.
01:33:50
Speaker 5: I'll give you that when I'll give you that one.
01:33:53
Speaker 3: But right he, I.
01:33:56
Speaker 5: Don't think he's the person to build that team around. Uh I. I just I think the Reds tend to cling onto these players and hope that one day they're gonna shine, and they just don't.
01:34:13
Speaker 2: You don't think You don't think Ellie. You don't think Elie dela Cruz has shined this year.
01:34:21
Speaker 5: He's he has at times, yes, but you know, I watch a lot of Rats baseball, and I I mean, I don't see him very seldom getting to hit when we need to hit. I see Ellie de la Cruz strikes out a ton. You know, among a lot of the players on the Reds, they they they have to be way up there and strike out this team. Uh I just think that they really.
01:34:58
Speaker 2: Need So you didn't so you would not have wanted them to get Kyle Schwarber this offseason now, because you wouldn't have wanted Kyle Schwarber has thirty three home runs, but he strikes out too much. You wouldn't have wanted him. So let me get this straight. So Kyle Schwarber wouldn't have wanted him. Ellie Dela Cruz, who's having his best season offensively and defensively, you wouldn't wanted him. I'm curious as to what the baseball player looks like that you would want.
01:35:29
Speaker 5: Well, I've set this time and time again, Pete Rose number fourteen.
01:35:36
Speaker 2: Man, Mike, I'm sorry. I can't help you, Pitt. Pete Rose is dead. He's not coming back. I'm sorry. If you want to make the argument that the Reds could get a whole bunch for Ellie Dela Cruz and they should not make him untouchable, I'm here for that. If you want to make the argument that Hunter Green the Reds could get a lot back in return, I'm here for that. I would argue that you could get more for him if you waited a little while longer. But if it's just we don't like anybody who's not Pete Rose, I'm sorry, then we Mike, I can't. I can't help you. You wouldn't have wanted a Kyle Schwerber who leads the planet in home runs because he strikes out a lot. By the way, Kyle Schwerber does lead the planet in home runs, he has a lower wins above replacement this season than Elie de la Cruz. It's if we're gonna fold into every player, look at their lifetime numbers and not weigh more heavily what they're doing recently. Where Ellie's numbers are better here this season than they were four years ago, then we're putting every player who ever puts a uniform on behind the eight ball because we're holding their rookie numbers against him. And if the conversation is just gonna be I want players like Pete Rose, who hasn't played a Major League baseball game in forty years, then I'm not the guy to have the conversation with. Sports headlines are next on ESPN fifteen thirty, very quickly. Sports headlines are a service of Kelsey Chevrolin Home of lifetime powertrain protection and guaranteed credit approval from their family, the Yours for Life kelseyschev dot Comrades and Mariners start a three game series tonight in Seattle. Nine to forty. First pitch, seven hundred wlw Andrew Abbott and righty George Kirby on the Hills starting line up tonight Dela Cruz had short steared at first Plaedet and left Steers and right field. Suarez DHS Stephenson catches Dane Myers in center field. Edward Arroyo plays second base. Key Brian Hayes is at third base and batting ninth. Reds drafted a bunch of players last weekend. What did they do right? What did they get wrong? We'll find out.
01:37:33
Speaker 1: Next Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty.
01:37:39
Speaker 4: Traffic from the UC Health Trail