Chasing the Milly: Week 5 DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown (Lowest → Highest Shootout)

WEBVTT
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What is up, maniacs?
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My name is Zach.
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I am the Millie Maker Maniac.
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Welcome to another episode of the Millie Maker Maniac podcast.
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Today is our week five DFS game by game breakdown for every game on the main slate.
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We're going to walk it through the lowest shootout score a game up to the highest shootout score a game.
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And we already know what that is.
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That is the Arizona Cardinals versus the Detroit Lions.
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It is an absolute smash spot, but we will get to that game.
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Before we jump into the games, I just kind of want to review what we're looking for as we're going through this.
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I'm doing all this to chase the Millie, right?
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I am the Millie Maker Maniac.
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I'm not trying to just build cash lineups and get little profits each week.
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But the whole goal of this website and the whole goal of why I've been building this is to give myself the best chance to take down big wins in these big DFS tournaments, as well as to give all the maniacs up there who are subscribed opportunity to take down big wins.
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And to do that, we need to chase ceiling.
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We need to chase guys that are going to 4x or more their salary.
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So that's kind of the lens that we're looking through as we're going through each of these games.
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Guys that are a good example that we'll get to today is Chris Olave.
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He's going to be 7,700 this week, likely to score somewhere in that ballpark of 20 points.
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At 7,700, that 20 points doesn't do us any good.
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He's a really good pick in cash, but I don't think he's a great pick in big DFS tournaments this week where we're chasing those big wins because I think his ceiling is capped.
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So those are the types of things that we're considering as we're walking through this.
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We're looking for guys that have opportunity for true ceiling to 4X plus their salary.
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Those are the type of guys that we need to take down these bigger tournaments.
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So with all that being said, let's jump into it and go to our first game.
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Our lowest scoring shootout score, which is the Cleveland Browns versus the New York Jets.
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This game is in New York.
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It has a 39.5 point total, with the Jets as two and a half point favorites with an implied total of 21 points, and the Cleveland Browns have an implied total of 18.5 points.
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There is a 10 mile an hour wind with a 4% chance of precipitation and 71 degrees, is what the um forecast is for kickoff.
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Both of these teams are slow when it comes to pace and haven't been overly effective.
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The Browns are 24th in pace and the Jets are 29th in pace.
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In fact, the uh Jets ran ran very few plays uh last week.
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Let me look at this real quick.
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What was their total plays last week?
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Only 32 snaps for the entire Jets offense last week.
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That is uh the third lowest total since the NFL merger, basically, since we've been tracking those types of stats.
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Um, so they did not get many snaps off last week.
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This game looks to be pretty ugly.
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Not a lot that we're gonna want out of this because we're not seeing um a lot of ceiling here.
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So this will probably be a game where we'll be looking at the defenses.
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Again, nothing here that really jumps out.
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Sadiq it is showing a great matchup, and he is only 3,800.
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So this is the one guy that we would consider.
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Coming off of his big game last week, he did put up a goose egg, but he was on the field uh from a percentage standpoint more than he's been um throughout the season.
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So we didn't see a drop in his snapshare, it actually went up.
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His snapshare last week was 69%, and his target share was 26.7.
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But when you only have 32 total snaps, um, and only 22 of those are uh passing plays, um, obviously it's going to skew skew that quite a bit.
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But he had four targets last week, did not connect on any of those.
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But at 3,800, I do think he's a decent play and a really good matchup against these pretty bad linebackers in coverage.
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So Kenyon Sadiq is one to consider this week out of this game.
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Beyond that, the Jets defense.
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I want to bet against Deshaun Watson.
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He has been getting away with it.
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If we could uh if I was savvy enough to put clips in, I would put in the clip from breaking bad of he can't can't keep getting away with it because he is playing god-awful, and yet they are three and one.
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They I think they're a decent team, but Deshaun Watson has been playing like absolute trash, and it's frustrating me because I very much believe that if Shador got in there, he would unlock this intermediate passing game.
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He's getting away with it with check downs.
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He has the lowest of all qualifying quarterbacks, 29 out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks that have had at least 60 attempts in a dot.
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His a-dot is 6.09.
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It's the lowest in the league.
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27 of his throws have been behind the line of scrimmage, and another 57 have been in between uh 0 to 9 yards.
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So the vast majority of his 114 throws have been 9 yards or less.
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So he's just been a check down king.
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And then he's been holding on the ball.
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He's taken 11 sacks in four games, and three of those are his fault.
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So there's the O-line isn't great, but he's not making it any better.
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And under pressure, he's been really bad.
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He's had five turnover-worthy throws and only had one interception.
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Under pressure, he has a 70% passer rating and a negative 3.4 EPA per drop back.
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Um, so he's just been awful.
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And if you watch the game at all last week, the like the media, the the guys that aren't watching the game, the guys that don't know ball, they're talking about how he led them to a game-winning drive, but he had one completion on that drive that almost got picked.
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He missed multiple guys that were wide open with just awful overthrows.
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That game should have never even been close if he would have just hit a wide open Casey Concepcion earlier in the game.
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The the Steelers would have never got the ball back, and it was game over.
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Like he had multiple turnovers in the um in that fourth quarter.
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Like he did everything in his power to throw away that game, and somehow they still come out on top.
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Um, so I very much am rooting for him to fail.
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Not a fan of him in general, but he is just trash, and eventually it's going to uh lead to some production for some defenses on um in DFS and the Jets at 2700.
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That is a bet that I would like to make.
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So out of this game, we're basically just gonna go Sadiq and the Jets.
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I really like what Boston and Conception have been doing.
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It's just with this quarterback play, I can't count on them hitting ceiling.
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Um, so we're not gonna go there at all.
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Fannin's been pretty solid too.
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But again, I'm not gonna chase ceiling with Deshaun Watson this week.
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And then on the Jets side, I think there's just better options.
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There's better games that we're gonna attack.
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It's not a great matchup for Garrett Wilson and at his price.
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I think there's gonna be better guys that we can chase for ceiling this week.
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So out of this game, we'll consider Sadiq, and the Jets defense is one that we'll we'll lean into for sure, but not much else out of this particular game.
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Now, the next game we have is Houston at Tennessee.
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Two on four teams.
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And uh yeah, this does not look like it's gonna have shootout signal at all.
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Our total for this game is 37.5.
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Houston is a seven and a half point favorite.
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They have an implied team total of 22 and a half points, and Tennessee has an implied team total of 15 points.
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There is a 55% chance of rain in this game.
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Nine monarch wins and 69 degrees at kickoff is what is forecasted.
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Houston does have uh pretty high pace so far.
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They're sixth highest um in pace.
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Tennessee is 31st in pace.
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They have been very slow.
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But I think a lot of Houston's pace stats are a little bit skewed because of who they've played so far.
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And um, they've just been put into game scripts, they've played the Bills, Bengals, Colts, and Cowboys.
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Um, and so this defense looks a little bit worse than what I think it actually is.
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So I'm definitely interested in their defense this week.
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But part of why I'm not going to attack CJ Stroud or Nico Collins, despite him having an elite matchup here, is because I think that they'll be ahead in this game.
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And what we see Nick Cayley do in the past when they have the lead is his pass rate goes way down.
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They're just going to try to milk this clock, is my expectation.
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In a neutral game script, they pass 50.9% of the time since Cayley's been the offensive coordinator, but when leading, they only pass 38.7% of the time.
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That's a 12.2% drop.
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Um, and I expect this game is going to be slow.
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I don't think they're going to be in chase mode.
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So I think the ceiling for Nico is pretty unlikely.
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Um he definitely could hit like a 20-point game.
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I feel like that's you know, pretty likely, actually, but that doesn't do us any good in tournaments at his price.
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If he was 5,500 and we could get 20 points, that's a whole other story.
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But at 7,500, we need him to score really 30 plus points.
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And I just don't think that this game environment is going to lead to that type of outcome.
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The only way that that occurs is if he scores a couple touchdowns early on big plays, which is definitely in the range of possibilities.
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But um I think I'm just gonna go another direction this week because I think this game is going to be slow without a lot of points, and I don't trust Nick Cayley to continue to push once they're ahead.
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I think that they'll get a lead and then just try to sit on it and believe in their defense being able to shut down Cam Ward and this offense, which I think they should have a lot of confidence in.
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I am interested in Houston's defense at 3,400.
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This has the best matchup of the week, and Cam Ward has been doing similar stuff to Deshaun Watson, just making throws underneath his eight odd is 6.61, which is the fourth lowest out of the qualified QBs.
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And he's been awful under pressure as well.
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He has a 39.4 completion percentage under pressure, 38.4 passer rating, and a negative 0.429 EPA per dropback, which is absolutely awful.
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Tends to throw the ball away, has 11 throwaways, which is very high as well, and four sacks that are his fault as well.
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He's got four turnover-worthy throws and two picks so far.
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I think it's likely that he is sacked and likely that he has a few uh turnovers in this game.
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And if that doesn't happen, I think it's unlikely that they score a lot of points against this defense.
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I think this is going to be an ugly game, a low-scoring game.
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Um, and I don't really want any part of this game other than Houston's defense.
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Moving on to our next game.
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We've got Cincinnati against Miami.
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Now, this is in Miami, it's a 42.5 point total.
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Cincinnati has a 24 and a half, 24.8 implied total.
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Miami has a 17.8 implied total.
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We've got one team that has a high shootout signal in Cincinnati against a team that has the absolute lowest shootout signal.
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The Dolphins are 32nd in pace.
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They're not scoring any points.
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They're giving up a few points.
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They're ninth in uh points against, so that's the one good thing.
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But they're just trying to, I mean, it's like they're trying to protect a lead right after the game starts, but they never have the lead.
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They have no urgency, they're not trying to get any shootouts at all.
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They're basically hoping that they can win a game by breaking off a big run or getting one big play here or there with some missed tackles, not making mistakes, and then hoping that the other side makes some mistakes, turns the ball over, and um they can win a game that way.
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But they just don't have the talent on defense to really lean into that.
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So what's happened in basically every single one of their games is their opponent gets up early.
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And then um, besides the 49ers, all the other teams have basically just played a conservative game as well, try not to make mistakes because they know this Miami offense isn't gonna score points because they're not being aggressive enough.
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I again very much believe in Malik Willis as a talent, but there's just nothing around him to believe in.
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So that kind of kills the upside for Cincinnati, but we'll talk more about that here in a second.
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First, let's talk about the Miami side.
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And Ollie Gordon last week was definitely the bell cow, as much of a bell cow as you can be in a game where there were only 39 offensive snaps.
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Um, it wasn't quite as bad as the Jets last week, but it was pretty damn bad.
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And there was only 14 total running back carries.
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Ollie Gordon did turn that into a pretty awesome day.
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He had 64% of the carries, 100% of the running back targets.
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He was 56% of snap and 69% of the touches.
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He had nine carries for 100 yards and one touchdown with two targets for zero yards for a total of 21 DK points.
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And Jalen Rye was a non-factor.
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He had five rushes for seven yards and zero targets.
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So the obviously Ollie Gordon's the only one that we would touch at 5300.
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Um, he's cheap, but not as cheap as I would love him to be.
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But against Cincinnati's defense, it is a decent matchup.
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So we could consider him for our player pool.
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Um, it is nice to have a cheap running back option.
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But I'm not really going to touch any of these wide receivers.
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Malik Washington is getting volume, but there's just no upside to it when we go and look at his output for the season so far.
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He's getting a lot of usage.
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We can see top 12 in snap share, top eight in target share.
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That's all good, but he's doing nothing with it.
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When we look at his output, you know, he's getting his peak has been 12 points.
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And when we saw last year when he was getting a lot of targets as well, he was not turning that into points, 12 points, even at his um pretty low score or pretty low cost at 4,600.
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Just isn't good enough to hit ceiling and hit our lineup.
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So for that reason, I'm not gonna go there with Washington.
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Douglas and Bell have shown upside.
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I would have more interest in them, but I think there's better pump plays this week.
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So we're gonna pass on that um this week.
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We'll see if Douglas plays.
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But I am interested in Greg Dulcich at 3,100.
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So Cincinnati is notoriously bad against tight ends.
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They are averaging uh giving up eight targets to tight end one, 82 yards, and 15.2 DK points, and they still haven't even given up a touchdown to the tight ends.
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So that should regress to the mean.
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And it's not like they've seen any great tight ends this year.
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The tight ends that they face that they're giving up 15.2 points per game against is Kate Otten, Dalton Schultz, uh Fryermouth, and Brenton Strange.
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So it's not like they faced any big time studs.
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The middle of their defense is just awful.
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Now, Dulcich hasn't been great either.
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He does have one game in week three where he had seven targets.
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They turned that into five receptions for 55 yards.
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But in week four, he had zero targets, zero receptions, um, and obviously zero yards coming off a goose egg, but at 3100 in a great matchup.
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I think he can get to that 15 points.
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And if he gets to 15 points, that's five X's salary.
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That's a great play.
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So I do think that Dulcich is a guy that we can mix into our player pool.
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I'm not gonna play Cincinnati's defense when we go to the other side, even though it is a great matchup.
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They're at 3,500, and the they're not the Dolphins aren't really scoring points, but they're not really turning the ball over either.
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And um Malik Willis isn't getting sacked a ton, he's getting sacked some, but not a ton.
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So I just don't think it's like a huge ceiling game for Cincinnati's defense.
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And at 3,500, there's just better options.
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Now we got to talk a lot about what happens if Jamar Chase and T.
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Higgins are out.
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My guess is that they both are out this week.
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Jamar Chase is in concussion protocol, but there's no reason for them to rush them back.
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They should be able to win this game with both Jamar Chase and T.
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Higgins out.
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But let's look at what happened once Chase left the game last week.
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Higgins played most of the game.
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So once Chase was out, Higgins was a clear wide receiver one.
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He had 79% of saps and 16 targets, 11 receptions for 157 yards.
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Um, and then he had his only exit uh with a abductor in injury, a groin injury.
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But once the other one that's interesting is once Hig or once Chase was out, Dante Myers was on the field for 89% of snaps and had nine targets.
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And then Mike Goseki was on the field for 62% of snaps and had five targets, and then Mitchell Tinsley was on the field for 53% of his snaps and did have seven targets.
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We also saw Chase Brown get 11 targets once Jamar Chase was out.
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I do think that Chase Brown is a great option this week.
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He'll probably be chalk, but we don't care about chalk.
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We just care about getting the guys that score the most points and then putting those guys in the optimizer.
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When we do that, we're gonna get the right combination and we will be unique enough with having the guys that score the most points that we can take down big wins.
00:19:13.359 --> 00:19:15.119
I'm concerned about Joe Burrow.
00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:22.400
More than likely, I will not have him in my player pool just because I think it's unlikely he has a ceiling game at his price.
00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:26.079
We need him to score like 35 to be a really good play.
00:19:26.559 --> 00:19:30.480
And I just don't think that that's likely because the Dolphins are not going to push him.
00:19:30.559 --> 00:19:35.440
So I'm just gonna go ahead and take Burrow out of my player pool right now, even though he does have the elite matchup.
00:19:35.599 --> 00:19:50.319
But I am very interested in Chase Brown, and then if Higgins and and Chase are out, which I'm assuming they probably will be, Dante Myers at 3,500, that is a great um punt play that I'm interested in.
00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:56.240
Tinsley at 3300, I would want to mix in as well, and then Mike Coseki at 4100.
00:19:56.319 --> 00:19:58.160
I think he's a solid play as well.
00:19:58.319 --> 00:20:00.640
I think we'll probably be punting a tight end.
00:20:00.720 --> 00:20:03.519
There's a good chunk of punt tight ends that I'm interested in.
00:20:03.599 --> 00:20:11.680
We've already seen three so far with Mike Coseki, Greg Dolcich, and Kenyan Sadiq all in for at 4100 and lower.
00:20:11.839 --> 00:20:14.799
So that's how I think I'm gonna play it this week.
00:20:15.839 --> 00:20:17.839
All right, that's all we need from this game.
00:20:18.000 --> 00:20:29.680
Let's move on to our next game, which is Denver at the Chargers, two offenses that are struggling right now.
00:20:30.240 --> 00:20:33.680
And I want no piece of either of these offenses.
00:20:33.920 --> 00:20:39.279
We look through this, it's neutral to bad for every single person in here.
00:20:39.759 --> 00:20:42.960
We don't want to touch that, but let's talk about these defenses.
00:20:43.039 --> 00:20:49.279
We got Denver at 3,200 with an elite matchup, and we got the Chargers at 2300 with a good matchup.
00:20:49.359 --> 00:20:50.960
So let's talk about it.
00:20:51.680 --> 00:20:55.920
So far on the season, let's talk about Denver first and going against Justin Herbert.
00:20:56.079 --> 00:21:02.319
Justin Herbert has a 70.6 rating so far, a negative EPA of 0.16 per play.
00:21:02.480 --> 00:21:04.000
He's QB21.
00:21:04.079 --> 00:21:05.599
He's taken 12 sacks.
00:21:05.680 --> 00:21:06.960
That's three per game.
00:21:07.200 --> 00:21:11.680
He's got six interceptions and he's got seven turnover-worthy throws.
00:21:11.839 --> 00:21:15.200
Uh, Joe Alt is also um potentially out for this game.
00:21:15.279 --> 00:21:16.799
He's questionable for this game.
00:21:16.960 --> 00:21:19.359
Their offensive line has been absolutely awful.
00:21:19.440 --> 00:21:21.279
If Alt is out, it's even worse.
00:21:21.519 --> 00:21:24.799
Denver is probably the best pass rush that they've seen so far.
00:21:25.039 --> 00:21:29.039
So all that is pointing to a great setup for Denver's defense.
00:21:29.200 --> 00:21:33.119
Now on the Charger side, Knicks has an 80.4 rating.
00:21:33.279 --> 00:21:34.720
He's been QB19.
00:21:34.799 --> 00:21:37.519
He's been a check down king as well with a 6.3 eight.
00:21:38.240 --> 00:21:41.839
He's got three interceptions, but seven turnover worthy throws.
00:21:42.240 --> 00:21:52.400
He has taken fewer sacks, only five sacks, but at 2300, with Knicks having so many turnover worthy throws, I think they are a great pick at defense.
00:21:52.559 --> 00:21:55.920
All we got to do is take the defenses here.
00:21:56.079 --> 00:21:59.759
The only other one that I would slightly consider out of this game.
00:22:00.079 --> 00:22:06.079
Game honestly is Jalen Waddell at 6100, but I just think that there's probably better options.
00:22:06.319 --> 00:22:17.119
I'll go ahead and consider him for the pool this week, but um we haven't seen hasn't quite worked for um the Broncos offense yet.
00:22:17.359 --> 00:22:22.720
And this defense has been pretty solid, they've just been up against it.
00:22:22.799 --> 00:22:25.039
Their offenses put them in really tough situations.
00:22:25.279 --> 00:22:28.880
So I'm interested in the defenses, maybe Waddle.
00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:31.279
Beyond that, not interested in anything else.
00:22:31.440 --> 00:22:33.359
I did forget to give you the game total on this one.
00:22:33.440 --> 00:22:34.960
The game total is 42 and a half points.
00:22:35.039 --> 00:22:36.720
Denver's a three and a half point favorite.
00:22:37.119 --> 00:22:39.519
This is in LA, so it's in the dome.
00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:40.480
We don't have any weather.
00:22:40.559 --> 00:22:49.200
Denver has a 23 and point 23 point um implied total, and the Chargers have a 19.5 point implied total.
00:22:50.400 --> 00:22:51.920
That one was a quick one.
00:22:52.079 --> 00:22:56.079
Let's move on to Minnesota and New Orleans.
00:22:56.319 --> 00:22:57.759
This one is a tricky one.
00:22:57.839 --> 00:22:59.119
We've got to really dive into it.
00:22:59.200 --> 00:23:04.880
I think there's a wide range of potential outcomes for this game, but it's a 42 and a half point total.
00:23:04.960 --> 00:23:06.960
Minnesota is a one and a half point favorite.
00:23:07.119 --> 00:23:09.200
This is in New Orleans, so also in a dome.
00:23:09.359 --> 00:23:17.759
Minnesota with a 22 in um team implied total, and New Orleans with a 20.5 implied total.
00:23:18.720 --> 00:23:30.240
Now we've got two very um different approaches to uh uh these games as far as pace goes.
00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:35.599
Minnesota is 30th in pace, New Orleans is second in pace.
00:23:36.319 --> 00:23:42.480
Now, part of that is New Orleans has been playing from behind, but it's also Kellen Moore just wants to play quickly.
00:23:42.720 --> 00:23:48.640
Um, I do think that both of these teams' schedules have this distorted.
00:23:48.799 --> 00:23:52.480
Um you see here, New Orleans is actually one in three.
00:23:52.640 --> 00:24:00.160
This just hasn't updated because um some of the Monday night stats haven't come through yet, but um they're one and three, Minnesota's four and oh.
00:24:00.400 --> 00:24:04.799
When we look at who they've played so far, let's look at the Minnesota side.
00:24:05.119 --> 00:24:08.160
Minnesota offense has been pretty bad.
00:24:08.319 --> 00:24:13.759
They've actually um they're scoring 20.85 points per game.
00:24:13.839 --> 00:24:21.920
They're 22nd in the league on that, they're 30th in the league in EPA per play, and but their defense has been really solid so far.
00:24:22.000 --> 00:24:25.519
They've given up the fewest points per game of any team.
00:24:26.559 --> 00:24:29.119
They so far have played Green Bay.
00:24:29.599 --> 00:24:34.079
They gave up 419 uh yards to Green Bay's offense.
00:24:34.160 --> 00:24:36.799
It's been the one functional offense that they've played so far.
00:24:36.960 --> 00:24:43.359
But then they played Chicago in a rain-soaked game that Caleb Williams got hurt in.
00:24:43.519 --> 00:24:46.559
That game was a 9-3 game, really ugly game.
00:24:46.720 --> 00:24:50.400
Uh, they gave up 297 yards of Chicago there.
00:24:50.720 --> 00:24:56.000
One of the better offenses in the league, but a unique situation with the weather and Caleb Williams getting hurt.
00:24:56.400 --> 00:25:01.599
Minnesota in that first game, though, only 244 yards of offense.
00:25:01.839 --> 00:25:05.519
In week two against Chicago, only 246 yards of offense.
00:25:05.759 --> 00:25:08.400
And then in week three, they play Tampa Bay.
00:25:08.640 --> 00:25:13.920
Not a great offense, obviously, but they only have 230 yards of offense.
00:25:14.079 --> 00:25:17.119
Um, that week only score 23 points.
00:25:17.200 --> 00:25:18.799
And then last week they play Miami.
00:25:18.880 --> 00:25:22.799
They do have 341 yards of offense, but only score 15 points.
00:25:22.880 --> 00:25:24.960
So this offense has done nothing yet.
00:25:25.119 --> 00:25:27.359
This is a really ugly 4-0.
00:25:27.599 --> 00:25:29.839
We really don't know anything about this offense yet.
00:25:29.920 --> 00:25:41.279
They basically, what Kevin O'Connell's strategy has been through four weeks is to rely on the defense and then try not to make mistakes on offense once they get a lead.
00:25:41.599 --> 00:25:54.319
And they've had matchups so far where they've been able to do that besides week one, um, where they did have to come from behind, but they did get some um defensive uh points in that game off a turnover.
00:25:54.559 --> 00:26:05.119
So really, this offense has shown nothing yet, other than a little bit in week one, through Justin Jefferson having a big game.
00:26:05.839 --> 00:26:13.279
And then on the New Orleans side, they have played really awesome offenses so far and had to be in shootout games.
00:26:13.519 --> 00:26:24.960
They played Detroit, Baltimore, Las Vegas, who scored 35 points against them, and Atlanta, who scored 45 points against them, and Atlanta has been much, much better with Michael Penix the last two games.
00:26:25.119 --> 00:26:36.559
So even though they were not considering them a top-end offense since Michael Penix has played, they've um blown out the Steelers and they've blown out the the Falcons.
00:26:36.720 --> 00:26:40.880
So I do think that the or sorry, blown out the um Saints.
00:26:41.039 --> 00:26:43.359
So I do think that the Falcons offense is actually a lot better.
00:26:43.519 --> 00:26:45.359
Plus, you just have a superstar in B.
00:26:45.519 --> 00:26:49.119
John Robinson, who is hard for any offense to stop.
00:26:49.279 --> 00:26:55.759
So they've played four really good offenses and been in negative game scripts in all four games.
00:26:55.920 --> 00:27:00.160
I think in this game, Minnesota's gonna try to slow this game down.
00:27:00.319 --> 00:27:01.759
They don't want to get in a shootout.
00:27:01.839 --> 00:27:03.759
I don't think that they trust the offense.
00:27:04.000 --> 00:27:14.000
My gut is that um this game is gonna be kind of middling, that we're not gonna get any we're not gonna get a shootout in this game.
00:27:14.240 --> 00:27:20.000
If this game is a shootout, I think it's New Orleans that has to push it.
00:27:20.160 --> 00:27:25.680
New Orleans has to come out early and score a lot of points, and then Minnesota has to chase.
00:27:25.839 --> 00:27:28.319
But I think that's pretty unlikely, honestly.
00:27:28.559 --> 00:27:33.440
Um they have their offensive line has been banged up.
00:27:33.599 --> 00:27:37.359
It does, we're showing a great matchup here for Shuck.
00:27:37.519 --> 00:27:55.359
Um, and a lot of that is due to a bad secondary for Minnesota, but I think that the pressure that Brian Flores has been drumming up in previous games can make up for a lot of that with this offensive line that's banged up with Kelvin Banks out.
00:27:55.519 --> 00:28:02.000
We've got a huge uh matchup advantage for Dallas Turner versus um New Orleans backup tackles.
00:28:02.240 --> 00:28:04.240
So I think that there's gonna get a lot of pressure.
00:28:04.480 --> 00:28:12.960
And overall, Shuck has put up numbers so far, but it's been a bit of a scam.
00:28:13.119 --> 00:28:18.079
And I just don't think that that scam is gonna be able to come likely in this game.
00:28:18.240 --> 00:28:23.680
He's been averaging 45 attempts per game, that's number one in the league by a pretty wide margin.
00:28:23.759 --> 00:28:25.839
Next closest is 40.5.
00:28:26.319 --> 00:28:30.720
He's only getting 6.68 yards per attempt.
00:28:30.880 --> 00:28:33.279
Um, that's bottom tier.
00:28:34.559 --> 00:28:36.720
And he's been pretty inaccurate as well.
00:28:36.880 --> 00:28:53.359
So I just think um that he it's been a scam where his points are coming from, and I don't think this is a game environment that's going to lead to that big shootout environment.
00:28:53.519 --> 00:28:58.720
I think Minnesota is gonna try to grind it out on the on the ground with Aaron Jones.
00:28:59.440 --> 00:29:03.680
Obviously, Jefferson uh can have a big game here.
00:29:03.920 --> 00:29:05.759
He's at 7,300.
00:29:06.000 --> 00:29:08.799
I just don't believe enough in his connection with Kyler Murray.
00:29:08.880 --> 00:29:10.160
We haven't seen it yet.
00:29:10.319 --> 00:29:19.359
Um, Murray being out in week two, and then Jefferson being out um in week three uh for majority of that game and then um all of week four.
00:29:19.440 --> 00:29:21.680
So we just haven't seen them play together yet.
00:29:21.920 --> 00:29:26.559
We have seen um a pretty good interaction, obviously, with TJ Hawkinson.
00:29:26.640 --> 00:29:32.480
He does seem pretty comfortable with TJ Hawkinson, it isn't a lead matchup for him here, but now Hawkinson's at 4,800.
00:29:32.640 --> 00:29:38.400
I don't think I want to play TJ Hawkinson at 4800 with the other cheaper options out there.
00:29:39.519 --> 00:29:45.119
So there's ways that this game could go off.
00:29:45.680 --> 00:29:57.519
But I everything I'm seeing is I'm thinking that these are two middling offenses with a defense in Minnesota that's pretty solid.
00:29:57.759 --> 00:30:06.240
I think New Orleans is probably a better defense than what um the stats are showing us as well, just because they've had really bad matchups so far.
00:30:06.400 --> 00:30:11.119
So I bet that this game probably comes out pretty close to this 42 and a half point total.
00:30:11.279 --> 00:30:19.119
And if it hits that under or around there, there's no ceiling that's coming out of this game, especially with Shuck at 6,100 now.
00:30:19.200 --> 00:30:21.200
He's not cheap enough for us to hit.
00:30:21.599 --> 00:30:32.240
If I were going to play this game, which I am not going to, I'd be interested in the Minnesota side actually more because I think that their pricing gives more upside.
00:30:32.319 --> 00:30:43.839
You got Kyler Murray at 5,200, you got Justin Jefferson at 7,300, and you compare that to Tyler Shuck at 6,100 with Chris Olave at 7,700.
00:30:44.000 --> 00:30:45.680
Chris Olave is great.
00:30:45.920 --> 00:30:48.720
I talked about this at the beginning of the show.
00:30:49.680 --> 00:30:51.920
I just don't think he's got enough ceiling.
00:30:52.000 --> 00:30:54.400
When we look at his game lock, he's been in these shootouts.
00:30:54.480 --> 00:30:59.759
He's got one game of 30 against Detroit, who is like the worst defense in the league.
00:31:00.000 --> 00:31:06.480
But these other games that were shootouts 22, 22, 22, that's great for cash.
00:31:06.640 --> 00:31:09.200
That does not and in in manage leagues.
00:31:09.279 --> 00:31:15.599
But when we're trying to take down a big tournament, that doesn't do us any good at 7700.
00:31:15.759 --> 00:31:19.359
And I don't see this being a ceiling game.
00:31:19.839 --> 00:31:25.279
Devon Bailey at 5200, he we can put him into consideration.
00:31:25.680 --> 00:31:28.559
His target share or his snap share is a 91%.
00:31:28.960 --> 00:31:31.680
He's seventh in the league in routes right now.
00:31:31.839 --> 00:31:35.359
Um, and he's got a 72 17% target share.
00:31:35.440 --> 00:31:39.519
At 5,200, if he hits 20 or 22, that pays off.
00:31:39.599 --> 00:31:42.079
And if he gets in the end zone, he can definitely do that.
00:31:42.240 --> 00:31:47.519
So he makes sense at 5200, but really nobody else in this offense does.
00:31:47.759 --> 00:31:50.799
Um I think there's just better pump plays.
00:31:50.960 --> 00:31:56.000
Juwan Johnson's been obviously solid, was great last week at 4,500.
00:31:56.079 --> 00:32:00.000
I like the pump plays that we've put in place better than him so far.
00:32:00.160 --> 00:32:07.680
Um, I do want to play Minnesota's defense, though, at 3,100, and I would be intrigued to play New Orleans defense at 2600 as well.
00:32:07.759 --> 00:32:10.559
So we'll put them in a player pool for consideration.
00:32:10.960 --> 00:32:13.839
Um, I think Minnesota is the more intriguing one.
00:32:13.920 --> 00:32:26.160
I think what we've seen from Tyler Shuck so far is a little bit skewed, and I think we're likely going to see some um regression towards the mean.
00:32:26.319 --> 00:32:31.039
He's not gonna be, he's not gonna finish the year at QB4 where he's at right now.
00:32:31.200 --> 00:32:36.240
It's uh very much a scam, and I think a lot of that has to do with the game environment we've seen so far.
00:32:36.799 --> 00:32:42.079
I I believe that this game is uh a great candidate to hit the under.
00:32:42.160 --> 00:32:45.839
And if it hits the under, there's really no pieces from this game that we're gonna want.
00:32:47.839 --> 00:32:53.599
Moving on to the New York Giants at Washington.
00:32:54.400 --> 00:32:58.799
We've got a 43.5 point total.
00:33:01.039 --> 00:33:06.000
The Giants have a 20-point implied total, Washington a 23.5.
00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:14.160
There is a 29% chance of rain at kickoff, seven mile an hour wins, and 63 degrees at kickoff.
00:33:14.240 --> 00:33:16.799
So no big weather issues there.
00:33:18.000 --> 00:33:20.880
Just kind of middle of the row when it comes to shootout score.
00:33:21.200 --> 00:33:24.480
Giants are 10th in pace, Washington's 13th in pace.
00:33:25.519 --> 00:33:30.480
I do think there are some sneaky elements to this game, though.
00:33:30.640 --> 00:33:35.039
Um, we should be getting Jaden Daniels back this week.
00:33:35.279 --> 00:33:44.720
Obviously, he's playing injured, and there is risk for him to you know take another hit and be out of this game.
00:33:45.039 --> 00:33:48.160
But what we've seen of him so far this year, he's looked great.
00:33:48.319 --> 00:33:52.079
So at 6,000, I think that there's definitely upside for him.
00:33:52.160 --> 00:33:55.839
I'd much rather play Jaden Daniels over Tyler Shuck at 6,100.
00:33:56.079 --> 00:33:58.160
Jaden Daniels at uh 6,000.
00:33:58.240 --> 00:33:58.799
I'm into that.
00:33:58.880 --> 00:34:01.440
He's got rushing upside as well.
00:34:03.839 --> 00:34:08.320
But let's start on the uh the Giants side, actually.
00:34:08.480 --> 00:34:10.320
Let's talk about Cam Scattaboo.
00:34:10.639 --> 00:34:19.360
The last two weeks, he's got he had 20 carries for 60 yards in week three, and three receptions for 40 yards.
00:34:19.440 --> 00:34:21.440
He hasn't obviously turned that into anything exciting.
00:34:21.519 --> 00:34:23.840
There's only 13 DK points.
00:34:24.320 --> 00:34:28.559
Um, but Najee Harris that week had nine carries for 52 yards.
00:34:29.039 --> 00:34:35.599
In week four, he had 18 carries for 58 yards, one reception and one target for eight yards.
00:34:35.760 --> 00:34:42.719
But Najee again only had nine carries for 30 yards, and nobody else is really touching the ball.
00:34:42.800 --> 00:34:52.079
So Cam is getting the vast majority of the workload, about two-thirds of the touches and a little bit of work in the passing game.
00:34:52.159 --> 00:35:00.960
At 6,000 in this matchup, I think Cam is a good player and will get into the end zone eventually and have some bigger plays.
00:35:01.119 --> 00:35:03.599
If they start using the passing game more, there's some upside.
00:35:03.679 --> 00:35:06.960
At 6K, he's a guy that I want to consider for the player pool.
00:35:08.800 --> 00:35:12.400
Now, the other guy that I like here, neighbors.
00:35:12.480 --> 00:35:13.760
It's a neutral matchup.
00:35:13.920 --> 00:35:16.480
Washington secondary has played a lot better this year.
00:35:16.719 --> 00:35:24.960
We go down, we can see that we've got Ameek Robertson showing actually as a strong um player so far this year, and Razul Douglas in the slot has played better.
00:35:25.039 --> 00:35:29.119
This defense has definitely played better, but there's still opportunity.
00:35:29.440 --> 00:35:32.159
Neighbors finally had a big week last week.
00:35:32.320 --> 00:35:34.480
The usage has been there all year.
00:35:34.639 --> 00:35:35.760
We were on it.
00:35:36.480 --> 00:35:45.679
But he's been at a 23% target share, 28% first read target share, 2.8, 2.08 yards per route run.
00:35:45.840 --> 00:35:55.599
And then last week he turned seven targets into six receptions, 112 yards, and a touchdown for 26.2 DK points, and he's still only 6,300.
00:35:55.760 --> 00:35:56.960
I think that's a great value.
00:35:57.039 --> 00:35:59.519
And Jameis is still only 4,800.
00:35:59.679 --> 00:36:02.880
I do think that there's scenarios where this game goes off.
00:36:03.039 --> 00:36:20.800
And the reason that I think that is because when we look at who the secondary guys are for the Giants that Jaden Daniels will be going against, we've got Drew Phillips who's average, and then two weak guys in Greg Newsome and Deontay Banks.
00:36:20.880 --> 00:36:32.000
The secondary is not great, and their pass rush on that side is not as great as it could have been, with Brian Burns being out with the torn ACL for the rest of the year.
00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:38.559
So I think this is actually a pretty good spot for Jaden Daniels and this passing attack.
00:36:38.880 --> 00:36:54.480
If Washington gets out to an early lead and they keep taking advantage of this secondary, you could see it where they have to let Jameis Winston get after it.
00:36:55.039 --> 00:36:58.880
The Giants don't want to do that, they want to keep this a slow game.
00:36:59.440 --> 00:37:06.880
They want Winston to just, you know, make easy throws and not really have him be pushing it.
00:37:06.960 --> 00:37:08.320
They want to keep his attempts down.
00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:11.679
That's the goal of what John Harbaugh wants to achieve.
00:37:12.000 --> 00:37:24.559
But if the commanders come out and they start scoring points early, that we saw last week against the Cardinals, that Harbaugh will let Winston get after it.
00:37:24.719 --> 00:37:27.679
And he scored 20 points last week at 4,800.
00:37:27.760 --> 00:37:30.400
We get 20, 25 points from Winston.
00:37:30.719 --> 00:37:33.440
Um, we're we're in business.
00:37:33.519 --> 00:37:37.360
That's something that can help us win a tournament, and it's pretty easy to stack him with neighbors.
00:37:37.440 --> 00:37:42.480
I'm not really interested in likely this week, it's a bad matchup for him, even though he's got the 30% target share.
00:37:42.559 --> 00:37:44.480
Um, it's just not a great matchup.
00:37:44.639 --> 00:37:50.559
The uh commanders have been really good against the um tight end so far.
00:37:50.719 --> 00:37:52.880
So I'm in on Jaden Daniels.
00:37:53.039 --> 00:37:53.760
I'm into it.
00:37:53.840 --> 00:37:56.639
I like the scenarios where this game goes off.
00:37:56.800 --> 00:37:59.920
It's obviously a division um game.
00:38:00.239 --> 00:38:04.079
I very much think that the Giants are a complete scam at 3-1.
00:38:04.239 --> 00:38:05.519
They're not a 3-1 team.
00:38:05.599 --> 00:38:08.559
And Washington has played much better than one and three.
00:38:08.719 --> 00:38:12.239
They've had some unlucky breaks with injuries.
00:38:12.320 --> 00:38:15.440
I think it's a completely different game last week if Mariota doesn't get hurt.
00:38:15.519 --> 00:38:25.519
But with Jaden Daniels back, there's definitely outcomes where they score a lot of points against this bad Giants secondary and really just a bad defense.
00:38:25.840 --> 00:38:29.519
And um this game turns into a shootout.
00:38:29.679 --> 00:38:31.599
I could see this being a back and forth affair.
00:38:31.760 --> 00:38:34.079
I don't think either one of these defenses is good.
00:38:34.159 --> 00:38:36.800
And with Jaden Daniels back in there, we could push it.
00:38:36.880 --> 00:38:39.199
I've been impressed with David Blau as well.
00:38:39.360 --> 00:38:42.239
Um, I think that um he's pretty solid.
00:38:42.320 --> 00:38:44.400
I don't want anything to do with this backfield.
00:38:44.559 --> 00:38:46.800
We haven't seen anything from JCM yet.
00:38:46.960 --> 00:38:51.280
Um, and then Eckler got involved last week as well.
00:38:51.760 --> 00:38:53.360
I'm not interested in it.
00:38:53.679 --> 00:38:57.039
The wide receivers, though, I do think that there is a lot of value here.
00:38:57.199 --> 00:39:00.960
If McLaurin doesn't play, I love Williams as a punt play.
00:39:01.039 --> 00:39:04.719
Um, and Diggs at 5,500 is an absolute smash.
00:39:04.960 --> 00:39:07.440
Even if McLaurin does play, Diggs is a smash.
00:39:07.519 --> 00:39:10.639
I probably want to play Antonio Williams if McLaurin plays.
00:39:10.719 --> 00:39:13.760
But if McLaurin plays, he's a smash as well at 5,300.
00:39:13.840 --> 00:39:15.360
So I love this receiving core.
00:39:15.519 --> 00:39:18.480
And then I do think that we can consider Chigakonquo as well.
00:39:18.639 --> 00:39:23.920
We haven't really seen anything from him yet, but preseason, I was really excited about Chigakonquo.
00:39:24.000 --> 00:39:26.079
I think he's an explosive player.
00:39:26.239 --> 00:39:33.119
Um, last week he was on the field for 58% of snaps, had four targets that only turned into two receptions for five yards.
00:39:33.280 --> 00:39:39.920
But again, it's very skewed when you have a seventh-round rookie coming in um to the game early in the game.
00:39:40.159 --> 00:39:47.280
Obviously, hadn't prepped all week to be the guy getting all the reps with Mariota being the starter.
00:39:47.360 --> 00:39:51.599
But when Mariota comes out in the first half, like we can't really look into that.
00:39:51.760 --> 00:39:53.920
But I think Chig has upside.
00:39:54.800 --> 00:39:58.239
I think he's an explosive player at 3300.
00:39:58.400 --> 00:40:02.000
I think he is a great pump play that probably nobody will be on.
00:40:02.079 --> 00:40:04.079
So we've got four pump plays at tight end.
00:40:04.159 --> 00:40:07.360
I really like how that is setting up for us this week.
00:40:08.880 --> 00:40:11.039
All right, let's move on from this game.
00:40:11.119 --> 00:40:12.559
But I think this is a sneaky game.
00:40:12.639 --> 00:40:13.519
I'm gonna play it.
00:40:13.599 --> 00:40:14.719
I like pieces from this game.
00:40:14.800 --> 00:40:18.239
I like Cam and Neighbors, they'll definitely be in my player pool.
00:40:18.320 --> 00:40:20.800
I will not get off of either of those guys, I don't believe.
00:40:20.880 --> 00:40:23.119
And then Diggs will definitely be in my player pool.
00:40:23.280 --> 00:40:24.800
Same with McLaurin if he plays.
00:40:24.880 --> 00:40:28.320
And if McLaurin doesn't play, Antonio Williams will definitely be my player pool.
00:40:28.480 --> 00:40:32.559
Um, I'm leaning into Jaden Daniels being able to hit ceiling at 6k, too.
00:40:32.800 --> 00:40:34.960
I think I think that's a fun way to play it.
00:40:35.119 --> 00:40:38.239
There obviously is risk that he doesn't make it through the game.
00:40:38.400 --> 00:40:41.280
Um, we saw last year when he played with this elbow injury.
00:40:41.440 --> 00:40:45.920
When he got hit, um, he came out of the game, but I think it'll be a little bit different.
00:40:46.000 --> 00:40:48.800
I think he's gonna try to play through pain if he does get hit.
00:40:48.880 --> 00:40:51.360
Um, this being just earlier in the season.
00:40:51.519 --> 00:41:05.199
If they get later into the season for like managed leagues and stuff, um, if they are out of it, I think that they'll probably shut him down for the season and he'll get that elbow surgery that he probably should have got this last offseason.
00:41:05.360 --> 00:41:08.880
But there's definitely ways that this game is a shootout.
00:41:09.119 --> 00:41:20.880
There's also ways that this game is a dud, but I feel pretty good about um digs and neighbors coming out of this game um with with pretty solid outcomes regardless of the game environment.
00:41:22.639 --> 00:41:26.000
All right, let's move on to Indianapolis at Pittsburgh.
00:41:29.440 --> 00:41:32.239
I think um this one is a little sneaky as well.
00:41:32.320 --> 00:41:34.400
This is at um gonna be in Pittsburgh.
00:41:34.480 --> 00:41:36.559
It's a 44.5 point total.
00:41:36.880 --> 00:41:45.280
Pittsburgh is a two and a half point favorite, indie with a 21 um team implied total, and Pittsburgh with a 23.5 implied total.
00:41:46.480 --> 00:41:51.840
27% chance precipitation at kickoff, 59 degrees with a 10 mile an hour wind.
00:41:52.719 --> 00:42:01.440
Two teams that are in the bottom third and in pace, but Pittsburgh is fifth in pass rate over expected.
00:42:02.159 --> 00:42:08.400
Rodgers has actually had at least 34 attempts in every game and has two games with 40 attempts this year.
00:42:08.559 --> 00:42:11.599
5,300, I do think he's a little bit intriguing.
00:42:11.920 --> 00:42:19.679
Um we'll get into yeah, let's just go ahead and jump into Jalen Warren now as well.
00:42:19.840 --> 00:42:26.719
So in the two weeks that he has played without Rico Dowdle, if Dowdle's out, he's a smash play at 6,700.
00:42:26.880 --> 00:42:37.440
Um, it's because in week three he was 90% of snaps, had 17 carries for 127 yards, and had four targets for three receptions and 49 yards.
00:42:37.599 --> 00:42:46.480
And then in week four, he played 97% of snaps, had another 17 carries for 93 yards, then he had six targets for three receptions and 33 yards.
00:42:46.639 --> 00:42:48.159
So he's the true bell cow.
00:42:48.239 --> 00:42:49.360
I think he's a talented guy.
00:42:49.440 --> 00:42:57.840
And this is a great matchup against um these linebackers for the Colts that are absolutely awful.
00:42:58.079 --> 00:43:08.159
If he is the dude, and even if uh Dowdle does play, I still think I'd be interested in Warren because I think he absolutely will crush in the passing game against these linebackers.
00:43:08.320 --> 00:43:11.599
So I think that's upside for Rodgers, too, stacking with Warren.
00:43:11.679 --> 00:43:14.880
And then DK Metcalf has been sneaky as well.
00:43:15.039 --> 00:43:37.920
He's got a 96% snap share, a 21% target share, including a 30% first read target share with um 94% route run and a 1.33 yards per route run, which isn't great, but um he's he's just getting a lot of looks, and the secondary is not great.
00:43:38.159 --> 00:43:40.960
Sauce Gardner is is grading as average right now.
00:43:41.119 --> 00:43:48.239
You got Shavarius Ward is also grading as average, and then um Justin Wally's been really, really bad.
00:43:48.639 --> 00:43:53.519
And I think yeah, I think both Warren and Metcalf are gonna eat here.
00:43:53.679 --> 00:43:57.840
Pittman, even at 4400, is somewhat intriguing as well.
00:43:58.000 --> 00:44:04.639
His snapshot hasn't been um But overall he's at 78% with just a 10% target share.
00:44:05.280 --> 00:44:09.119
I think that that will um go up as he's he's healthy now.
00:44:09.280 --> 00:44:13.119
So this passing game is somewhat intriguing because of their price.
00:44:13.280 --> 00:44:22.559
You got DK only at 5,400, you got Pittman at 4,400, and with that PROE being fifth in the league, Rodgers.
00:44:22.639 --> 00:44:28.480
Uh, I think this is really their best matchup of the year when we go and look at his game by game.
00:44:29.440 --> 00:44:33.519
They've played Atlanta, which is a great matchup, but New England's an awful matchup.
00:44:33.679 --> 00:44:41.599
Cincinnati is a pretty good matchup, obviously, but he scored 23 points in that game, and then against Cleveland last week, which is a decent matchup, but not a great matchup.
00:44:41.760 --> 00:44:42.800
He had 24.
00:44:43.039 --> 00:44:45.679
I think this is probably his best overall matchup.
00:44:45.760 --> 00:44:48.320
Maybe since he you could argue is slightly better.
00:44:48.480 --> 00:45:01.760
But with what the short passing game with Jalen Warren against these linebackers, I think it sets up really well for Rodgers to have a 25 plus point game and a 5,300, that works, and that works very well for us.
00:45:02.639 --> 00:45:12.880
Now on the Colts side, Jonathan Taylor, I want to mix in every week, but I'll probably just have like five to eight percent of him at 7800.
00:45:12.960 --> 00:45:18.559
It's not a great matchup, but he's you know has a capability of baking off big runs any week.
00:45:18.800 --> 00:45:21.039
True Bell Cow, super talented.
00:45:21.119 --> 00:45:25.519
7800 is not an awful price, just a neutral matchup, though, so I'm not in love with it.
00:45:25.599 --> 00:45:27.360
I'm not gonna play a ton of him.
00:45:27.920 --> 00:45:33.360
Josh Downs didn't show out last week against the commanders, but they didn't need to.
00:45:33.440 --> 00:45:41.360
Um, game kind of became pretty skewed once uh Mariota was out, but he is definitely their lead guy.
00:45:41.599 --> 00:45:44.960
And then Tyler Warren, it's a decent matchup for him as well.
00:45:45.519 --> 00:45:51.920
I I think I'm probably gonna lean more towards the pump plays, but I think he's a decent play at 5k.
00:45:54.000 --> 00:46:03.840
Okay, let's move on from this game and go on to the Las Vegas Raiders against the New England Patriots.
00:46:04.000 --> 00:46:09.440
This is in New England is a 45.5 point total.
00:46:09.599 --> 00:46:21.119
Vegas has an implied total of 21 in New England with 24.5 points, 1% chance precipitation, 12 mile an hour wins and 69 degrees is what is forecasted for kickoff.
00:46:21.440 --> 00:46:25.920
Two middle of the road teams really across the board and pace.
00:46:26.079 --> 00:46:36.480
The Raiders are 19th, the Patriots are 16th, pass rate overexpected, um, 21st for the Raiders, seventh for the Patriots.
00:46:38.239 --> 00:46:45.440
I'm probably not going to play Cousins this week just because the Patriots defense is pretty solid against the pass, but I do want to give him a shout-out.
00:46:45.599 --> 00:46:48.320
He has actually absolutely balled out so far.
00:46:48.880 --> 00:47:04.079
He has um so far in four games in week two through four, he scored 21.2 DK points, 22.2 DK points, and 26.6 DK points in the last three weeks.
00:47:04.480 --> 00:47:06.480
He has been extremely efficient.
00:47:06.639 --> 00:47:08.320
He has been just balling out.
00:47:08.480 --> 00:47:15.840
He's 93 for 144 on the season for 1,026 yards, 11 touchdowns, four picks.
00:47:16.079 --> 00:47:25.599
He's averaging 25 two or 256 yards per game, 2.75 passing touchdowns per game, and 21.5 DK points per game.
00:47:25.679 --> 00:47:27.679
Um, he's been extremely efficient.
00:47:27.840 --> 00:47:34.000
He's.158 EPA per play with a 50% success rate.
00:47:34.480 --> 00:47:36.480
All those are top tier.
00:47:36.719 --> 00:47:40.239
99.5 passer rating, 8.838.
00:47:40.800 --> 00:47:42.159
He's been pushing the ball down the field.
00:47:42.320 --> 00:47:45.280
He's been awesome, um, especially with Bauer's back.
00:47:45.440 --> 00:47:49.840
I just think that the matchup isn't too juicy.
00:47:50.159 --> 00:47:58.400
Now, Genty, on the other hand, has been extremely inefficient, and I'm starting to get concerned about Genty.
00:47:58.639 --> 00:48:03.039
I actually traded Genty away for Jeremiah Love in one of my managed leagues.
00:48:03.119 --> 00:48:08.239
Um, I really like Love's playoff schedule, and I'm 4-0 in that league.
00:48:08.480 --> 00:48:12.400
And I think um I've got some concerns about Genty.
00:48:13.119 --> 00:48:17.679
So he's averaging 3.38 yards per carry on 78 carries.
00:48:17.920 --> 00:48:21.039
Um he's just never hasn't had a good week.
00:48:21.199 --> 00:48:27.599
His yards per carry week by week has been 4.4, 2.3, 2.9, and 3.9.
00:48:29.199 --> 00:48:37.519
His EPA per rush is negative, which is like deeply negative, minus 0.287, which is really bad.
00:48:37.679 --> 00:48:42.000
His rush success rate is 32.1%, which is very low.
00:48:42.079 --> 00:48:43.679
That's on the lower half as well.
00:48:43.840 --> 00:48:51.760
He's got zero rushing touchdowns in four games, despite six carries inside the five and 15 inside the 20.
00:48:52.079 --> 00:48:56.239
And he has no explosive runs, zero runs of 20 plus yards.
00:48:56.559 --> 00:49:04.159
Um rate is seven percent.
00:49:05.360 --> 00:49:11.360
One thing he does have going for him, he's got 64.8% of his rushing yards are coming after contact.
00:49:11.599 --> 00:49:19.519
But what I'm seeing is he's there's holes that he's not hitting, he's not explosive through the hole.
00:49:19.679 --> 00:49:33.039
Once he gets contact, he's really good at like dragging guys for an extra yard or two, but I'm not seeing him hit the hole and create explosives, and all the data is showing that.
00:49:33.199 --> 00:49:39.840
And I'm starting to be concerned that he's got some maybe some Trent Richardson type vibes to him.
00:49:40.000 --> 00:49:54.159
He's got Clint Kubiak, um, which is super helpful for him, and he's he's making up through it in the passing game, but even that I am not overly convinced on.
00:49:54.239 --> 00:49:58.480
He's got 24 targets for 19 receptions and 165 yards so far.
00:49:58.639 --> 00:50:00.719
That's what's been keeping him afloat.
00:50:01.760 --> 00:50:07.039
But there's been some bad drops, and he doesn't look super comfortable catching the ball either.
00:50:07.280 --> 00:50:11.679
So I'm worried about Genty, and this matchup isn't one that I'm excited about.
00:50:11.760 --> 00:50:15.599
So I'm gonna be passing on him at his price at 7,200 this week.
00:50:16.800 --> 00:50:22.800
I think you can make a case for Tucker, but I just think there's a few other guys in this price range that I like a little bit better.
00:50:22.960 --> 00:50:29.280
I prefer Dobbs on the other side because he is their wide receiver one, and he's not competing with a guy like Brock Bowers.
00:50:29.599 --> 00:50:32.400
Um, Brock Bowers is an absolute beast.
00:50:32.480 --> 00:50:41.199
At 7K, he's got to hit some pretty big ceiling, but he's you know, been putting up numbers to be able to do that.
00:50:41.440 --> 00:50:46.800
In the two games he's played, he's got an 80% snap share, a 27% target rate.
00:50:47.039 --> 00:50:48.639
He's run 89% of the routes.
00:50:48.719 --> 00:50:50.239
He's basically playing wide receiver.
00:50:50.400 --> 00:50:54.400
He's got a yards per route run of 2.56, which is phenomenal.
00:50:54.559 --> 00:50:58.000
And he's got a first read target share of 39%.
00:50:58.480 --> 00:50:59.920
He is an absolute beast.
00:51:00.079 --> 00:51:08.239
He is a payup option that I am going to mix in the player pool this week because he is just so damn good, and his quarterback is playing really well.
00:51:09.280 --> 00:51:12.239
Now, let's talk about the other side.
00:51:12.480 --> 00:51:24.079
In the Patriots, Drake May had been playing really poorly, but he bounced back last week with some good numbers.
00:51:24.559 --> 00:51:39.199
Um yeah, so his EPA play flipped from deeply negative to a positive 0.283 last week in week four against the Bills.
00:51:40.719 --> 00:51:47.039
His prior weeks were minus 0.13, minus 0.21, and minus 0.51.
00:51:47.440 --> 00:51:50.719
His success rate jumped up to 54% as well.
00:51:51.119 --> 00:51:54.320
His other weeks were 47%, 40%, 39%.
00:51:54.880 --> 00:51:56.559
He only took one sack last week.
00:51:56.639 --> 00:52:01.519
He had taken three prior in every week, or he'd taken three in every week prior.
00:52:02.159 --> 00:52:05.440
Um, and his volume spiked out as well.
00:52:05.519 --> 00:52:10.880
Um, he had 38 attempts last week against Buffalo, but it was a bit of in a bit of a shootout.
00:52:11.119 --> 00:52:13.119
But he just played a lot better last week.
00:52:13.280 --> 00:52:15.679
You know, he was second in MVP voting last year.
00:52:15.760 --> 00:52:16.880
He's a good player.
00:52:17.199 --> 00:52:21.039
We should have expected him to come back towards a mean.
00:52:22.000 --> 00:52:23.360
6,300.
00:52:23.519 --> 00:52:27.280
I think he's an okay play, but I think that this Raiders defense is actually pretty solid.
00:52:27.360 --> 00:52:29.119
We see it's just a neutral matchup.
00:52:29.280 --> 00:52:31.599
We don't want to touch this running game.
00:52:32.079 --> 00:52:35.039
It's split and hasn't looked good.
00:52:36.239 --> 00:52:41.760
And then Romeo Dobbs, it hasn't been great, but he is their wide receiver one.
00:52:41.840 --> 00:52:43.039
He's on the field more than anybody.
00:52:43.119 --> 00:52:47.920
If Mac Hollins is out, um then we got to lean into that um at 5k.
00:52:49.280 --> 00:52:51.280
Yeah, he's their best option.
00:52:51.760 --> 00:52:57.679
If Hollins is out, we could look at both um Douglas and maybe even Kyle Williams.
00:52:57.920 --> 00:53:03.519
And Chisholm obviously had the great play last week, but he wasn't on the field much at all besides beyond that.
00:53:03.760 --> 00:53:06.400
But we do have Hunter Henry who is on the field a lot.
00:53:06.880 --> 00:53:09.039
3,700 and a good matchup.
00:53:09.280 --> 00:53:13.360
I think that's another good punt tight end that we can consider as well.
00:53:13.599 --> 00:53:14.960
So I don't love this game.
00:53:15.119 --> 00:53:19.920
I think more than likely it's going to be kind of a middling affair.
00:53:20.000 --> 00:53:23.039
I think the total is is probably right on.
00:53:23.599 --> 00:53:32.559
Besides Bowers, I don't see like an epic performance coming from anybody, but I think Dobbs is a pretty good value at 5k.
00:53:34.480 --> 00:53:40.639
There's scenarios where this could be a sneaky shootout, but I I don't think I'm gonna play it that way.
00:53:40.800 --> 00:53:47.119
But um, you know, Kirk Cousins playing at a high level, Drake May coming back to playing at a high level.
00:53:47.360 --> 00:53:49.599
There's ways that it could happen for sure.
00:53:49.760 --> 00:53:56.079
Um, so I'm probably not gonna go there, but I don't blame you if you go to this game this week.
00:53:57.440 --> 00:54:01.360
All right, three games left, and these ones are fun.
00:54:01.679 --> 00:54:05.119
Our next game is Chicago at Green Bay.
00:54:05.360 --> 00:54:07.599
This is a 45.5 point total.
00:54:07.840 --> 00:54:12.320
Chicago's a three-point favorite with a 24.3 implied total.
00:54:12.480 --> 00:54:15.599
Green Bay with a 21.3 implied total.
00:54:15.840 --> 00:54:23.519
We do have a 2% chance of precipitation, 19 mile an hour winds, so a little bit windy, but both these teams are built to play in the wind.
00:54:23.840 --> 00:54:26.159
77 degrees at kickoff.
00:54:27.280 --> 00:54:32.159
Chicago has been the highest um paced team in the league.
00:54:32.320 --> 00:54:37.280
They're also seventh in scoring points per game and seventh in EPA per play.
00:54:37.360 --> 00:54:40.719
So this offense has been solid, even with Tyson Bajan in there.
00:54:40.800 --> 00:54:43.840
And also, that is with a big-time dud game in week two.
00:54:44.480 --> 00:54:46.079
Chicago's been really solid.
00:54:46.239 --> 00:54:51.360
Um, Bajent last week didn't put up any fantasy numbers, but he was pretty solid overall.
00:54:51.519 --> 00:54:54.000
25 of 34 for 268 yards.
00:54:54.079 --> 00:54:58.559
He did have one pick, um, but he had 7.9 yards per attempt.
00:54:59.599 --> 00:55:04.800
Um, overall, I think he played pretty well and he moved the ball around pretty efficiently.
00:55:04.960 --> 00:55:13.119
73.5 completion percentage, just no passing touchdowns, but at 4,700 um in an offense that has been killing it.
00:55:13.199 --> 00:55:15.599
I think that he is a decent play.
00:55:15.840 --> 00:55:22.159
Now let's talk about um this backfield.
00:55:22.400 --> 00:55:28.320
So if Monungai is out, DeAndre Swift is an absolute smash.
00:55:28.480 --> 00:55:32.960
If Monungai is in, it clouds what we do here.
00:55:33.119 --> 00:55:36.320
Obviously, Monungai was a great play last week.
00:55:36.559 --> 00:55:43.119
He had 30 carries for 146 yards and two TDs, and Swift only had 15 carries for 58 yards.
00:55:43.280 --> 00:55:45.280
He had 45 carries last week.
00:55:45.360 --> 00:55:49.440
And I think at the core of it, that's what Ben Johnson wants to do.
00:55:49.519 --> 00:55:54.480
He wants to run the football, and he's going to do that in games that he can.
00:55:55.440 --> 00:56:03.599
I do think one thing that's notable is Swift had 14 carries, and Monungai had 12 before Swift fumbled.
00:56:03.679 --> 00:56:08.719
And then once Swift fumbled, he had one carry, and Monungai had 18.
00:56:09.039 --> 00:56:14.880
Monungai did dislocate his thumb in this game, and um, there is a decent chance that he doesn't play.
00:56:15.119 --> 00:56:16.960
We'll have to keep an eye on practice reports.
00:56:17.039 --> 00:56:20.400
If Monungai does not play, Swift is a smash.
00:56:21.039 --> 00:56:28.960
If Swift or if Monungai does play, probably just don't go to either one of these running backs.
00:56:29.119 --> 00:56:33.280
But Monungai at 5200, maybe, maybe.
00:56:33.599 --> 00:56:37.119
But these pass catchers, they're just so cheap.
00:56:38.239 --> 00:56:43.119
And Bayent played well enough, they just didn't put up the fantasy points last week.
00:56:43.280 --> 00:56:48.400
Like if we look at what these pass catchers did at their prices, Burden's only 4,900.
00:56:48.480 --> 00:56:50.960
He's way too of an explosive player to be at that price.
00:56:51.119 --> 00:56:55.119
He can easily hit that ceiling of 25 and 5x that salary.
00:56:55.360 --> 00:56:59.039
Raymond didn't have a great week last week, but he's been very much involved at 3,900.
00:56:59.119 --> 00:57:00.719
We can um consider him.
00:57:00.880 --> 00:57:05.280
And then Roma Dunze had a solid week last week.
00:57:05.440 --> 00:57:08.960
Uh let's look at what they did with Bayent last week.
00:57:09.119 --> 00:57:13.599
Actually, when we look at, we also need to talk about Colson Luman at 4,600.
00:57:13.760 --> 00:57:15.280
He had nine targets last week.
00:57:15.360 --> 00:57:18.480
That only turned into six receptions for 57 yards.
00:57:18.800 --> 00:57:21.039
But um that's trending in the right direction.
00:57:21.199 --> 00:57:23.679
At 4,600, I think he's in consideration.
00:57:24.239 --> 00:57:26.159
Ron Madunze had seven targets.
00:57:26.320 --> 00:57:29.360
He turned that into six receptions for 94 yards.
00:57:29.519 --> 00:57:33.199
Um, I like that a lot, and he's still only 4,700.
00:57:33.360 --> 00:57:36.400
If he gets that type of game, that pays that off.
00:57:36.480 --> 00:57:40.320
And if he gets a touchdown on top of that, that is phenomenal.
00:57:40.800 --> 00:57:45.119
Burden had six targets, he turned that into four receptions for 63 yards.
00:57:45.280 --> 00:57:52.800
Um, he only had 50 per 56% of the snap share where Adunze and Loveland had 92% and 89%.
00:57:53.519 --> 00:57:58.159
And then Raymond was only on the field for 51% of plays last week and only had two targets.
00:57:58.480 --> 00:58:07.199
So concerning about the snap share for Burden, but he's just such an explosive player that at 4,900, yeah, we got to mix that in.
00:58:07.280 --> 00:58:09.039
He can have some ceiling games.
00:58:10.559 --> 00:58:14.960
The way that this game that I think this game could go a couple ways.
00:58:15.199 --> 00:58:28.320
One, I think that the Bears could just come out, dominate on in the on the ground, and just continue to pound on the ground, putting up points.
00:58:28.480 --> 00:58:34.639
One thing I know about Ben Johnson and the narrative of this game is they talk a lot of shit about this Green Bay game.
00:58:34.880 --> 00:58:38.639
And um uh he would definitely run up a score if they got up the lead.
00:58:38.719 --> 00:58:42.000
I could definitely see a scenario where Chicago runs up the score.
00:58:42.079 --> 00:58:49.199
I want to be on the Chicago side um, regardless of what Green Bay does, because I do think that he very much will run up the score.
00:58:49.599 --> 00:58:57.039
But there is plenty of scenarios where um the Packers can hang.
00:58:57.360 --> 00:59:03.199
Matt LaFleur does not want to push, but he's gonna have to push in this game because the Bears are gonna score points.
00:59:03.360 --> 00:59:06.400
They're gonna run a lot of plays, he's gonna have to pass the ball.
00:59:06.559 --> 00:59:09.760
It's just a matter of whether or not they can have success doing it.
00:59:10.000 --> 00:59:14.320
Where the matchup is very much in Jordan Love's favor is in the secondary.
00:59:14.480 --> 00:59:17.920
These corners that they're facing have been awful this year.
00:59:18.159 --> 00:59:22.320
But where they have a really big disadvantage is in the offensive line.
00:59:22.480 --> 00:59:26.639
Their offensive line is one of the worst, if not the worst, in the league.
00:59:26.880 --> 00:59:33.840
So it's a matter of whether or not they he can get enough time to get the ball off to these very talented pass catchers.
00:59:33.920 --> 00:59:40.400
We see it's a great matchup for Watson and Golden and neutral for Kraft, but I like those three guys.
00:59:40.480 --> 00:59:41.760
It's very concentrated.
00:59:41.920 --> 00:59:45.920
Uh, Watson and Golden 100% are gonna be in my player pool this week.
00:59:46.079 --> 00:59:50.559
But I like Love at 5,700 too in a game where I think they're gonna be trailing.
00:59:50.639 --> 00:59:52.960
I think this game has shootout potential.
00:59:53.119 --> 00:59:57.519
Where it doesn't shoot out as if they just can't get anything going because they can't protect Love.
00:59:57.679 --> 00:59:59.440
They the rush running game's been really bad.
00:59:59.519 --> 01:00:02.480
I'm not touching this Russian game at all, even though they're cheap.
01:00:03.360 --> 01:00:04.639
It's just a matter of time.
01:00:05.679 --> 01:00:09.039
It's just a matter of whether or not Jordan Love can push.
01:00:09.199 --> 01:00:11.760
If he can push back, this game's really fun.
01:00:12.000 --> 01:00:19.840
If they can't, and they he's getting sacked and turning the ball over, then um it's ugly.
01:00:19.920 --> 01:00:24.159
But I still think that the Detroit or that um Chicago scores a lot of points.
01:00:24.400 --> 01:00:26.719
That is why I'm interested in Chicago's defense.
01:00:26.800 --> 01:00:39.760
I think this game could be a shootout, but a 2,900 with this really bad offensive line and a game where Jordan Love's gonna have to throw a lot, that's a recipe for potential pick six or definitely interceptions and plenty of sacks.
01:00:40.000 --> 01:00:42.239
So I like the Bears' defense to play.
01:00:42.320 --> 01:00:47.440
Um, I really just like playing this game in general, but there's a lot of different ways that it could play out.
01:00:47.760 --> 01:00:54.000
One of which I think the two most likely ways are the Bears absolutely dominate and it's a blowout.
01:00:54.159 --> 01:01:04.480
And then the other way is it's a back and forth affair that's a lot of fun and scores a lot of points and could rival that Arizona and Detroit game for the game that you had got to have.
01:01:04.559 --> 01:01:06.159
So I like playing both these quarterbacks.
01:01:06.320 --> 01:01:07.760
I like playing the pass catchers.
01:01:07.920 --> 01:01:09.840
I would love to get to play Swift.
01:01:10.000 --> 01:01:20.079
If Monungai plays, I'll probably mix in both of them just because I do think that Ben Johnson really wants to um lean into it.
01:01:20.159 --> 01:01:23.280
I mean, we saw it last week, they had 45 carries between the two of them.
01:01:23.440 --> 01:01:29.519
So he when he gets a lead, he wants to um be explosive, but be explosive through the run game.
01:01:29.679 --> 01:01:31.360
So a lot of fun options here.
01:01:31.599 --> 01:01:34.320
Gonna really be heavily invested in this game.
01:01:35.599 --> 01:01:43.360
All right, their next game is San Francisco at Seattle.
01:01:43.599 --> 01:01:45.599
This is a 46.5 point total.
01:01:45.760 --> 01:01:51.199
Seattle is a two and a half point favorite at home, so very much a neutral um type game.
01:01:51.440 --> 01:01:56.000
Seattle, 24.5 implied total, San Francisco a 22.
01:01:56.400 --> 01:02:01.199
0% chance of rain, uh, 10 mile an hour win and 57 degrees at kickoff.
01:02:02.400 --> 01:02:04.960
These are two teams that aren't really high in pace.
01:02:05.119 --> 01:02:10.960
San Francisco's 25th, Seattle's 26th, but um they're scoring a lot of points per game.
01:02:11.280 --> 01:02:16.000
Seattle's fourth in points per game, San Francisco is fifth in points per game.
01:02:16.800 --> 01:02:23.840
They're also San Francisco's also first in EPA per play and eighth in pass rate overexpected.
01:02:24.559 --> 01:02:42.480
Where this game becomes fun, in my mind, is if the 49ers can get out to an early lead and they have success against this defense, which the matchups are telling me that that's there's a good likelihood of that.
01:02:43.199 --> 01:02:46.400
Purdy is showing up as a great matchup.
01:02:46.960 --> 01:02:51.199
We got an elite matchup for George Kittle, and then it's a good matchup for Mike Evans.
01:02:51.360 --> 01:02:56.800
Neutral for Christian McCaffrey, but we know who the studs are: Purdy, McCaffrey, Evans, and Kittle.
01:02:57.119 --> 01:03:00.239
And then we'll get Debo through our smart stacks with Purdy.
01:03:01.599 --> 01:03:07.840
If this game goes off, I it goes off because San Francisco, I think, pushes early.
01:03:08.079 --> 01:03:13.679
They're having a lot of success on offense, and then Seattle has to push back.
01:03:13.840 --> 01:03:15.679
In that scenario, I like Darnold.
01:03:15.760 --> 01:03:17.440
It's a great matchup for him as well.
01:03:17.599 --> 01:03:20.079
Obviously, JSN is always an elite matchup.
01:03:20.239 --> 01:03:25.599
He's expensive, but this game, if this game goes off, you know that he could have an absolutely monster game.
01:03:25.760 --> 01:03:27.760
And we got to talk about Emmanuel Wilson as well.
01:03:27.840 --> 01:03:30.400
That's one that I biffed on last week.
01:03:30.559 --> 01:03:34.320
I thought it was gonna be um a split backfield, but it was not.
01:03:34.480 --> 01:03:41.039
He had 21 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown, including four targets with three receptions and 39 yards.
01:03:41.119 --> 01:03:43.280
He got 27 DK points.
01:03:43.519 --> 01:03:45.440
I apologize, Philip, for missing that.
01:03:45.519 --> 01:03:46.559
That was a big miss.
01:03:46.719 --> 01:04:02.400
He had 36 snaps, which is 60% of the snap share, but he had 75% of the backfield carries and 80% of the running back targets for 24 total touches and 120 yards total with the one touchdown.
01:04:02.719 --> 01:04:07.760
George Helani had seven carries for 18 yards, only 22 snaps for 37.
01:04:08.639 --> 01:04:12.960
Um, yeah, it wasn't nearly as much of a split as what I thought it was gonna be.
01:04:13.119 --> 01:04:16.800
So Wilson is the play here at 5,300.
01:04:17.039 --> 01:04:21.039
Um, I do think that he's probably a good pick to be in the player pool.
01:04:22.159 --> 01:04:27.440
And um, beyond that, though, it's JSN and Sam Darnold.
01:04:27.519 --> 01:04:31.119
We'll get these other guys in our smart stacks with Darnold.
01:04:31.280 --> 01:04:36.880
Don't want to play either defense, but I think there is a pretty decent potential for this game to go off.
01:04:37.039 --> 01:04:43.760
I doubt that the field's gonna be playing it that way just because of the illusion of Seattle being this great defense.
01:04:44.000 --> 01:04:49.280
But we saw that same thing with the illusion of Houston being an elite defense as well.
01:04:49.440 --> 01:04:57.920
But the matchups were telling us it's not as elite as we thought it, or as you know, all the pundits are saying that is.
01:04:58.159 --> 01:05:08.559
The data is showing us it's actually a great matchup for Brock Purdy, and this is a division game, obviously um means a lot for playoff seating and in the division.
01:05:08.719 --> 01:05:10.960
San Francisco's four and oh, Seattle's three and one.
01:05:11.280 --> 01:05:19.119
These are the type of games um where you could see these teams push each other throughout the game and we're just racking up fantasy points.
01:05:19.280 --> 01:05:24.480
There's also a scenario where this is kind of a you know knockdown, drag out game.
01:05:24.880 --> 01:05:33.119
And because neither of them push pace, if um we don't see points score early, this game could definitely miss.
01:05:33.199 --> 01:05:38.880
But I want to definitely play a portion of my portfolio this week of this game going off.
01:05:39.039 --> 01:05:45.760
It's our second highest um likelihood or second highest shootout score on the main slate this week.
01:05:45.920 --> 01:05:49.280
So let's trust the shootout score and lean into it.
01:05:50.480 --> 01:06:04.960
But now we are to the game of the week, the most obvious game uh of the week, which is Detroit at Arizona is by far our biggest shootout score of 86.
01:06:05.039 --> 01:06:16.480
When we went back and looked at the shootout score for Seattle, that's that shootout score is only at 49, where this score is at 86, so almost uh doubling it there.
01:06:16.800 --> 01:06:20.639
Big time um shootout score here.
01:06:20.719 --> 01:06:28.719
And the reality is we have two good offenses with two absolutely horrific defenses that both like to push the envelope from pace.
01:06:28.880 --> 01:06:35.039
Detroit's seventh in pace, Arizona's fourth in pace, um, Arizona's fourth and pass rate overexpected.
01:06:35.199 --> 01:06:39.440
They're second in team points giving up uh points against.
01:06:39.679 --> 01:06:43.280
Um, that's a great um thing for fantasy.
01:06:43.440 --> 01:06:47.599
And Detroit is fourth in points against and third in points per game.
01:06:47.920 --> 01:06:50.880
This is just an absolute smash spot across the board.
01:06:51.039 --> 01:06:52.880
I don't really need to explain it.
01:06:52.960 --> 01:06:57.199
We got elite matchups for Jared Goff, elite for Jameer Gibbs, elite for Almaraz St.
01:06:57.360 --> 01:07:00.800
Brown, good matchup for J-Mo, and elite for Sam Laporta.
01:07:00.880 --> 01:07:02.559
Those guys are in our player pool.
01:07:02.719 --> 01:07:05.440
We don't need to second guess it.
01:07:05.679 --> 01:07:06.719
We play those guys.
01:07:06.800 --> 01:07:11.039
And on the other side, good matchup for Brissett, neutral for love.
01:07:11.440 --> 01:07:14.000
I'll jump into his um stats here a little bit.
01:07:14.159 --> 01:07:16.639
And then Michael Wilson, a great matchup.
01:07:16.880 --> 01:07:18.719
And Trey McBride, great matchup.
01:07:18.800 --> 01:07:21.039
Those guys are in our player pool.
01:07:21.199 --> 01:07:22.400
Um, no doubt about it.
01:07:22.559 --> 01:07:26.159
This game is likely going to have a lot of points, even if it doesn't hit the true ceiling.
01:07:26.239 --> 01:07:30.559
There's likely going to be a guy or two that comes out of this game that we need.
01:07:30.719 --> 01:07:32.559
We want it across our player pool.
01:07:32.639 --> 01:07:34.719
There's no reason to fade this because it's chalk.
01:07:34.880 --> 01:07:36.159
It's chalk for a reason.
01:07:36.400 --> 01:07:39.599
This game is very likely to go off.
01:07:39.920 --> 01:07:43.920
Now, Jeremiah Love did see a dip in his usage last week.
01:07:44.239 --> 01:07:45.760
We thought it was wheels up.
01:07:45.920 --> 01:08:00.800
That's how I was playing it going into week four, but he only had 14 carries for 63 yards, one target for um one yard, and then he did have um, or sorry, for one reception for minus eight yards.
01:08:00.960 --> 01:08:08.559
And then in week three, he had the 21 carries for 90 yards, and then five targets um for five receptions and 19 yards.
01:08:08.800 --> 01:08:11.519
Really thought that we were gonna start to see more of that workload.
01:08:11.679 --> 01:08:17.279
He did injure his other ankle in this game, um, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
01:08:17.600 --> 01:08:31.680
Um, I honestly think this is just a blip on the radar, and that he is a dynamic player, and in a game that's gonna be a lot of points, I think we could see a big um play or two from him.
01:08:31.840 --> 01:08:34.079
I want to play him at 6,100.
01:08:34.159 --> 01:08:40.159
Um, I'm not too worried about um the regression that we saw last week.
01:08:40.880 --> 01:08:46.880
Now, Michael Wilson, this dude has been an absolute alpha the last few weeks.
01:08:47.199 --> 01:08:49.359
He had 17 targets in week three.
01:08:49.520 --> 01:08:51.439
He had 13 in week four.
01:08:51.760 --> 01:08:56.159
Turned that into in week three, that was 11 receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown.
01:08:56.319 --> 01:08:59.600
In week four, that was seven receptions for 95 yards.
01:08:59.920 --> 01:09:02.159
This Detroit defense is awful.
01:09:02.399 --> 01:09:10.399
And um, I think Michael Fleur has shown a pretty good um ability to take advantages of matchup advantages.
01:09:10.800 --> 01:09:12.319
Yeah, let's lean into it.
01:09:12.399 --> 01:09:13.439
That's where the ball's going.
01:09:13.520 --> 01:09:14.960
It's not going to Marvin Harrison.
01:09:15.039 --> 01:09:15.840
We don't got to chase that.
01:09:15.920 --> 01:09:17.920
He's only got a 7% target share.
01:09:18.079 --> 01:09:22.079
Uh at 4,400, he'll be in our player pool through Burset.
01:09:22.560 --> 01:09:28.000
I don't think we need to add him beyond that as far as he'll be in the smart stacks, but we don't need more of him than that.
01:09:28.159 --> 01:09:29.760
And then McBride, same thing.
01:09:29.920 --> 01:09:33.920
11 targets, and I mean, his targets will go week by week.
01:09:34.079 --> 01:09:40.399
Week one, 13 targets, week two, 10 targets, week three, 11 targets, week four, 12 targets.
01:09:40.560 --> 01:09:45.520
The dude's getting peppered in a game that is um going to score a lot of points.
01:09:45.680 --> 01:09:49.279
Yeah, let's uh let's get him in the player pool.
01:09:49.359 --> 01:09:51.600
A lot of guys at tight end that I like this week.
01:09:51.760 --> 01:09:52.960
Love this game.
01:09:53.279 --> 01:09:55.199
No reason to complicate it, my friends.
01:09:55.359 --> 01:09:58.800
Take the studs out of this game, play them and play them often.
01:09:58.960 --> 01:10:03.600
Play the quarterbacks, play the play all the skilled players.
01:10:03.920 --> 01:10:08.720
This game is awesome and has a 54 and a half point total.
01:10:08.800 --> 01:10:09.600
Let's get after it.
01:10:09.760 --> 01:10:12.640
Don't fade it, get into it, don't try to get cute.
01:10:12.960 --> 01:10:14.560
Play this game.
01:10:15.199 --> 01:10:17.600
All right, my friends, thanks so much for tuning in.
01:10:17.760 --> 01:10:21.279
That is our week five game by game breakdown.
01:10:21.439 --> 01:10:22.560
This is the week, my friends.
01:10:22.640 --> 01:10:24.159
We are gonna get the player pool right.
01:10:24.319 --> 01:10:27.119
I really like the read that we've got on the matchup so far.
01:10:27.279 --> 01:10:31.199
On Friday, we will narrow down the player pool that we have now.
01:10:31.279 --> 01:10:33.359
Let's see how many are in our player pool currently.
01:10:33.520 --> 01:10:40.239
We've got 60 in our player pool through the matchups page or matchups uh video.
01:10:40.479 --> 01:10:43.279
We'll try to get that down into the 35 range or so.
01:10:43.359 --> 01:10:45.039
So we got to cut 25 guys.
01:10:45.199 --> 01:10:54.399
And if you've been watching my videos, you know that that video is the key to taking down big wins because the last few guys that I cut every week score a ton of points.
01:10:54.560 --> 01:10:59.119
So I'm never gonna win a DFS because I cut the wrong guys each week.
01:10:59.279 --> 01:11:06.560
But if you watch my videos and you see who I cut last and you put them in your player pool, you're gonna make a ton of money.
01:11:06.720 --> 01:11:08.479
So tune in on Friday for that.
01:11:08.640 --> 01:11:10.399
Thanks so much for tuning in, maniacs.
01:11:10.479 --> 01:11:13.600
It has been really exciting to see so many people watch the videos.
01:11:13.680 --> 01:11:18.319
We're averaging about 1,500 per week on the matchups videos, and uh, it's really exciting.
01:11:18.399 --> 01:11:20.079
I hope that you guys are enjoying the tools.
01:11:20.239 --> 01:11:24.560
I hope that a lot of you have enjoyed your two-week trial over at MillieMakerManiac.com.
01:11:24.800 --> 01:11:29.199
We still got a few slots open to be an OG Maniac.
01:11:29.279 --> 01:11:44.159
The first hundred people that uh subscribe and become paid subscribers over at Millie Maker Maniac get the full access to the site, including the optimizer and all the tools that you've seen today for$50 a year and absolute great value.
01:11:44.319 --> 01:11:45.840
So check that out.
01:11:46.159 --> 01:11:47.439
We will see you on Friday.
01:11:47.600 --> 01:11:50.800
Good luck this week, maniacs, and thanks so much for tuning in.
01:11:50.880 --> 01:11:52.800
I greatly appreciate it.