ABOUT THIS EPISODE
This week on the Macrocast, Brendan and Ed were joined by frequent guest John Dick of CivicScience to review his latest Economic Sentiment Index. John discussed the continued improvement of consumer sentiment, indicating that, while still below last year's readings, the consumer continues to feel increasingly comfortable with their economic status. The group discussed how this summer's readings seem to reflect a generally positive cultural and economic vibe, with a record-breaking Prime Day from last month, positive vibes from an exciting and successful World Cup, and celebration of America's 250th birthday. John also commented on small changes in the partisan identification of voters, with a small increase in voters moving away from both political parties to register as nonaffiliated.
John also identified changes in federal government policies related to student loan repayment as a potential warning sign in the months ahead. He also defended the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings, which have received some criticism online and, in some newspapers, expressing admiration for their methodology and transparency.
Brendan and Ed discussed the week's bank earnings, which reported blowout capital-markets and investment-banking results but also reflected a strong consumer, consistent with ESI readings.
Finally, the group discussed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semiannual testimony before Congress. While Chair Warsh didn't provide any expectations or plans for changes in interest rates, he did provide a detailed description of the Working Groups intended to provide input on his plans to revise Fed operations and monetary policy decision-making. He also defended the concept of Fed independence and renewed his calls for decreasing the size of the Fed balance sheet.
John closed the podcast with some examples of ESI data points that could indicate continued optimism among younger consumers.
For more about the hosts, please see below:
