ABOUT THIS EPISODE
Fenix Resources (ASX: FEX) just shipped the biggest quarter in its history — 1.3 million tonnes in June, exiting the year above 5Mtpa annualised. The share price has gone the other way. Chairman John Welborn returns to explain why, and what happens next.
We last spoke in April, when a cyclone had just hit the Pilbara, diesel was blowing out and the stock was at A$0.33. Since then: record tonnes, a full-year C1 of A$73.7/t at the bottom of the guided band, W10 approvals landed on 20 July, and US$44 million of new funding signed against a A$300 million gap.
John doesn't dodge the hard parts. We go through the June quarter C1 of A$79.9/t, the fuel excise relief that expires next Monday with only 30% of diesel hedged, freight running from A$23 to A$32 a tonne in a single quarter, and A$294 million of half-year revenue that produced A$9.7 million of profit. Production has tripled since FY24. Margin hasn't followed.
Then the build. Weld Range and the Beebyn Hub — first blast this quarter, first ore on a ship in December, W11 doubling to 3Mtpa, and the 244km haul road that is supposed to drag C1 into the fifties. Plus the Wajarri Yamaji Deed of Covenant, the Sinosteel payments, the fleet capex, and whether a dividend survives a capital program that size against A$81 million of cash.
WHAT WE COVER
- Why a record quarter hasn't translated into a share price
- What actually changed between 974,000t in March and 1.3Mt in June
- FY27 guidance at a 5.0Mt midpoint — conservative, or capped?
- C1 costs, diesel at A$2.45, and the 70% that isn't hedged
- Freight economics and the Mira Bulk Freight partnership
- Revenue up, profit down — what tonnage makes this a margin business
- Weld Range: W10 approvals, first ore on ship, and the sequence to December
- The Wajarri Yamaji Deed of Covenant and what "legally clear to mine" means
- The 244km haul road — DFS scope, and who pays
- Funding A$500m without raising equity: does the vision still stand?
- Franking credits, last year's dividend, and whether it repeats
- The 61% Fe benchmark, the lump premium, and what grade is worth
- Chinese steel demand, and what customers are saying about FY27
- CMRG, yuan-priced indices, and where Fenix sits
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