WEBVTT
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So so.
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Happy Devils Wednesday. This is the State of the Fan Address,
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episode 369, titled Evaluating the Devils. I'm your host, Sam Wu,
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here with PucksandPitchforks.com, Editor-in-Chief Nick Villano, as we're streaming live
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on Facebook Live, YouTube Live, X Live, Twitch, and now
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on Instagram Live on The Let's Go Devils Network. Got
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a special guest coming up in a few minutes. Talking analytics.
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CJ Tortoro. Coming on this program live, live. As, yeah,
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I'm still recovering from last night, Nick. Because that event
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that we had just was so much fun to have
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Ken Danico on. Grant Marshall, Bruce Driver, and Jim Doubt.
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Who we got in his number? Check those interviews, right?
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Those interviews are up on the feed.
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Oh, yeah. Yeah, they're all over the place. Audio version,
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Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music Prime, Audible, and
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iHeart app. You can, you know, go on YouTube, Atlas
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Good Devils. You can go on Facebook, Twitch, Instagram, Atlas
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Good Devils Podcast, and on iTunes. X at let's go
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to old pod. You know, it's been good. It's been good. And, uh,
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and I, and I've kept up with my trolling today,
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but I think I'm going to temper it down because
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let me tell you something. You got devil's Rangers tomorrow.
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So it got, it got hot today, Sam.
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It got hot today. Happy birthday to Quinn Hughes.
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That's all.
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Yeah.
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It got hot.
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It got only for Quinn's birthday. That's just the one
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time thing.
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Yeah. Here's the thing. Yeah. So, uh, I like that
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we have games faster.
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Because when Devils fans have too much time on their hands,
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it gets to a really negative place. And just the
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social media has been really, really ugly. And, you know, CJ,
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who's coming on in a couple minutes, reminds everybody that
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that 2022-23 New Jersey Devils team started the season 3-3.
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So....
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You know, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.
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Don't give up on this team just because goaltending doesn't
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look great. And I'm not going to pretend that it does.
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Goaltending looks bad. Nico Dawes doesn't look good. Jake Allen
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doesn't look good. Jake Allen did have some timely saves
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last night, but he didn't look good. Like, nobody's going
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to pretend he looked good. I want him to have
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the first one. I wanted him to have the.
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Third one, I think. I can't remember.
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I'm trying to remember in my head. You have to
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take the wins here. Only the Carolina Hurricanes in the
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entire league have a better.
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5v5 shot differential. That's the word I'm looking for.
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Only the Carolina Hurricanes have a better shot differential than
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at five versus five than the New Jersey Devils. But
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New Jersey Devils last year had the worst 5v5 shooting
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percentage in the league. And if they had that same
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shooting percentage this year, they'd have three more goals at
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even strength. If they had even a median middle-of-the-pack shooting percentage, Sam,
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they'd have eight more goals than they do right now.
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I understand that this was a problem last year and
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it's a problem again this year. And you want to
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look at patterns. But shooting percentage is a very unsustainable
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stat to just have this volatile. Especially with great shooters
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on the team like Hughes and.
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I want to say Meyer, but he isn't that great
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with the devil. But you have guys who can shoot.
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You have guys who really make plays. You're going to
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put people in scoring chance. And again, I think their
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shooting percentage is always going to be low. Just because
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this Sheldon Keefe system is volume over anything.
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But if they just.
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Start working a little bit more on shot placement. Like
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hitting the corners. Trying to be a little bit more
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on the edges. There is a little bit too many.
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And ironically.
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Nico, he sure hit John Gibson in the chest and
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scored a goal because it went in between his pads
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and went underneath them. So it did work out, but
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you got to stop hitting guys in the chest, in
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the pads. I do see like, again, Gibson made two
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spectacular saves and the devils missed three open nets. The
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theoretically the devils could have scored nine goals last night.
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Just for Brett missed two open nets and just for
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broke was missed an open net and grits.
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It got robbed.
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And I think, Nico got robbed. I think it was Nico.
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So last night should have been better. The luck hasn't
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been there and nobody wants to hear it. So why
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don't we bring on our analytics guy? Let's, let's bring
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on our, a guy who knows the numbers and knows
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what we're looking at. Can we invite our guest on Sam?
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I love it when we have smart people on the
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podcast because this stuff like CJ, uh, uh, Kevin Cavanaugh, the, uh,
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Bryce Salvador, all these guys. I learned a thing or two.
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Please welcome on the podcast, CJ Tortoro, good friend of
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the podcast. You can find him on X at CJTDevil. CJ,
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welcome to the podcast. Oh, I guess he doesn't see us.
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Are you muted, CJ, or I can't hear you?
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He's not muted. Maybe he doesn't have us right now. Oh,
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I think he said something. Let me just check one thing.
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Let me check one thing on our end. Let's try
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it again. Let's see.
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CJ, can you hear us?
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I see levels, but we don't hear them. That's not good.
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That's interesting.
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Is it the same channel? Same video channel and audio channel?
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Yeah, I'm going to investigate that, Nick. Just give me
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one second. I just want to make sure that he's
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getting the right feeds. No, he is getting all the
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right feeds. I don't know why. But let's try it again.
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CJ, are you there?
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No, we don't have him. But I do see levels, though.
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It's weird. Like, I see.
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Right, it seems like it's an us problem, Sam.
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No, but hold on a sec here. Check the feed.
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Give us one second, CJ.
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Everything's fine. I just think he's muted.
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How is he muted if we're getting levels?
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But CJ, say something because I see levels, but I
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don't see him going up. No, it's not going up.
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So that's weird. It might be from another microphone that hit.
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I have no idea. I don't want to do tech
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talk while we're on live air. Hold on a sec.
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Do we have his number? Maybe I should contact him.
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Let me see. Let me get his number real quick. Yeah.
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No, internet feed's good. Audio wise, video wise, everything's good.
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It's just, it's just not like I see levels, but
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it's not like anytime he talks, it doesn't go up.
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So.
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So I don't know if it's– all right, let's try
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it now. I think he's on his phone right now.
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It's CJ Totoro, hockey analytics researcher. What's up, CJ?
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Can you guys hear me now?
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We can hear you now.
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Yeah.
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I'm on my phone, so I don't know why the
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laptop didn't work.
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Technology.
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No worries. We'll give you a second to get settled.
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We apologize for those technical difficulties, but we– We always
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got to pivot here. CJ, thanks for coming on. We
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always love having you on, but this one's a little
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bit special because you introduced Post Hockey, which is your
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new analytics platform. You're diving in. So I'm going to
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jump into that first because I'm really excited about this
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new platform.
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I always love....
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I'm somebody who likes to jump between Moneypuck and Micah's
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stuff and Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Tricks. So I
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love having kind of a comparison platform. Can you quickly
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tell us what was the inspiration to building Post Hockey?
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What caused you to build another analytics platform?
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Yeah, so the origin actually comes more so from my
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history as a blogger than as an analyst. You know,
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I've been, I started blogging uh, back when, you know, SBN,
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SBN had a vibrant platform, right? I, uh, I had
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been writing there, uh, starting, I think it's 15 years
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ago now. Um, and I had like, you know, my,
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my slant was an analytics slant. Um, but really I
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was just trying to tell stories about, you know, what,
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what was going on with me in my case, it
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was the devils in particular.
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Right.
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And a lot of times I thought that the at
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the time it was still a relatively young community, the
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analytics community. So I thought that a good way to
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tell some of those stories was with stats that people
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hadn't seen before. Right. And what I've kind of felt
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over the last, you know, maybe I would say five
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or so years is that, you know, that had been
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a new way to tell stories at the time and
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it kept developing for a little while. And then I
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feel like over the last maybe five to 10 years,
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those stories kind of stalled out a little bit, right?
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The analytic stories are very similar today from the analytic
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stories that we saw when I started writing 15 years ago, right?
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We've got that, you know, people don't care enough about
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the amount of the pace of the play, the shot attempts,
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which just developed into expected goals. On-ice metrics developed a
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little bit more into something called a wrap-em model, which
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adjusts the on-ice metrics. uh for the quality of the
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competition for the zone that you started in for the
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rest that you have for the venue whether you're home
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or away right for takes a bunch of those variables
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them together and says how much better did your on
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ice results show up than what you were expecting uh
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and then that feeds into what became uh one of
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the first widely used hockey war models um which started
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at a site called war on ice. Those guys got
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hired by teams really quickly. Then it went on to
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evolving hockey. Uh, and those guys are still running that site.
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Right.
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So a lot of those sites, you know, all these
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sites are great. I don't want any of this to
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be perceived as, you know, me saying that these guys
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aren't innovating. A lot of why we have the stuff
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that we have today is because natural stat trick is great. Uh,
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you know, evolving hockey is great. Uh, Micah over at
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hockey biz, uh, is probably one of the more innovative, uh,
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you know, voices in the community. I would say he
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does a lot of stuff that nobody really does. And then,
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you know, Jay Fresh and Pat Bacon over at HockeyStats
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have been, you know, have been running a mile a
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minute on catching up with some of that stuff lately.
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But I still felt like there was a gap in
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the storytelling, right? So let me just use war as
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an example or the Rapa models as an example. Like
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I said, they adjust for a bunch of circumstances, right?
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So they'll say, for instance, if you start in the
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defensive zone, it's a tougher shift.
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Right?
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The problem is that from my perspective, as the person
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trying to tell the story from like the bloggers perspective, right?
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Starting the defensive zone isn't as difficult for some players
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as it is for other players, but the way that
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a rapid model views it is in the aggregate. So
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it says in general, here's how much of a penalty
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you get for starting in the defensive zone, right? But
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if your skill is in zone exits, then you're not
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taking as big a hit as someone else, right? and
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quality of competition and the difficulty of shifts, all these
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kinds of things, right? There's a failure of nuance. It
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doesn't give people the opportunity to do more in-depth analysis
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because they're looking at a number that claims to have
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adjusted for all the things we might want to care about.
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And they're like, oh, we've already considered that. Well, how
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well have you considered it though? Have you really looked
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into if this player is doing this particular thing better
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or worse than what the rest of the league is doing?
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So the premise of the site post-hockey, post coming from
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Washington Post sort of vibe, there's sort of a periodical
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aspect to the CSS even. It's supposed to be that
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the spirit is that the communication of statistics comes from
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a collaboration between the communicators and the analysts. And so
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I wanted to give more tools that people didn't really
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have in the past in the community to talk about
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parts of the game that they might not have thought
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were able to be numericized. Yeah.
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And I think these are all great points because I think.
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There are still flaws in a lot of the statistics
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and we talk, we've talked about it.
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You and me have talked about.
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It on social media and in, in other avenues where it's,
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you know, X G's is kind of, you know, the
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catch all and it's flawed war, you know, jay fresh
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and patrick bacon.
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Have their their war model which i think is.
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It's it's an attempt for sure like it's to try
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to compare you know you're essentially just trying to compare
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players regardless of position regardless of of strengths and weaknesses
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you're trying to just put a number on everybody but
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it's just incredibly flawed just because i think My thought
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is that it's just really hard to do this.
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I would say they're blunt. That's the problem. It's not
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that they're flawed, but usage of it can be easily
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flawed because of how blunt they are. They are best
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used for macro analysis. If you want to say if
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these kinds of players are worth spending a lot of
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money on, it would be good to know what those
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kinds of players tend to be worth in general. But
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if you want to say... We just acquired this new guy.
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How much should he add to our goal differential? Well,
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there's a lot more questions than just how much did
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he add to the last team's goal differential. What's his
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role going to be, right? What is he going to
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be asked to do? Is he going to get power
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play time, right? What's his shift disparity going to be like, right?
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What is the scheme that he's coming into? You know,
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there's a lot of different questions. You can't just map
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that one number onto the new team, right?
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Yeah, you could kind of look at Timo Meier, right?
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Timo Meier's role with the Sharks is, very different from
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his role with the devils. And it's kind of turned
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that way in the counting stats. So yeah, no, you're
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totally right. And yeah, you're right. Flawed is such a
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negative word. So I apologize for using that. We've had
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Jay fresh on here. He's incredible mind as well. So
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it wasn't, wasn't trying to downplay his statistics. I use them,
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you know, all the time in my writing and he
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has great graphics. He does a great job of visualizing
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these statistics, but I just look at them and I
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just have trouble with, for example, and I think we
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talked about this, Timo Mayer had, I think, the third
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best individual XG last year. And I think essentially it's
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just like he's in a really good position. He gets
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the puck on a stick in that position a lot
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because it was him, maybe McDavid, and then Anders Lee.
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And I just wouldn't put the other two in the
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top 30 players in the league. But when you think
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of individual XG, I think that's a stat. Again, I
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think that Usage of how you present those stats, especially
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for bloggers and journalists, is so important. Let me ask
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you this. How do you want people to use your statistics?
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I want people to come to the site the same
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way that I would be going to analytic sites when
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I was a blogger, which is to look for things
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that they might not have been thinking about. So that
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could be that they already have an idea and they
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want to check to see if that idea is statistically supported.
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Or it could be that they're just kind of thumbing
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around and seeing if there's something surprising that they wouldn't
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have necessarily thought about. You know, like one of the
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earlier guys that was, you know, I hadn't even thought
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about making a website yet at the time when this
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idea had come to me. But when we acquired John
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Marino originally, Um, my, my statistical profile of him was
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that he was a modern defensive impact player who doesn't
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have the typical physical profile of a, you know, stay
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at home defenseman, you know, right. He's undersized, good skater, right. Like, uh,
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you know, good on the puck, but you know, can
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be easily manhandled at part, probably part of why he's
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not on the team anymore. Uh, so, uh, he had
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a way of preventing goals. through the usage of his,
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what might be considered offensive skills, right? Uh, so in particular,
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he is very good at retrieving dumps from the opposing
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team and turning those into possession exits, meaning that the
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other team dumped it, he grabbed the puck and now
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we've got the puck going the other way. The other
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team's possession has ended and now we've got some momentum
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and a chance at a rush opportunity, right? Uh, so
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that now, depending on how you frame that, that can
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seem like an offensive result. But fundamentally, the first thing
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that happens, he prevented the other team from getting attempts
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at net, right? And if you do that enough times
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over the course of a season, that's going to result
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in fewer goals against. And that's why, you know, him
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and Ryan Graves ended up being one of the best
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defensive units in the NHL. I think a lot of
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people probably would have incorrectly, in my opinion, given a
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lot of the defensive credit on that to Ryan Graves
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because he's the one that feels more like a stereotypical defender.
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But Marino actually has the skills that when leveraged in
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the appropriate way resulted in defensive impacts. And so this
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was one of the early inspirations for the badge structure
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that I have. So I have three different types of
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badges that I award players on the website. And those
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are badges for skills, roles, and outcomes. And I think
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that the nuance between those two things is often left
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out of the statistical conversation. Something like a warm that
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you break it down and you get the defensive war
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or the wrap-ums and you check out what their impact
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on expected goals against is, right? They'll say, you know,
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the result was that He prevented goals, so he is
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good defensively. And then you'll see the eye test people say,
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he gets manhandled in the crease all the time. What
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are you talking about? How can you say that that's
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someone that's good defensively? It's because they're not speaking the
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same language. So you need to be able to have
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the nuance of saying, well, it's not a stereotypically defensive skill,
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but the way that this scheme is using it, it's
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producing defensive results, right? And so that's the kind of
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thing that I hope people can come to the website
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and explore stuff that they might not have been able
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to get with the blunter measurements. You can probably try
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to find some way to explore the idea that you
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might have in some of the stats that we're offering
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somewhere here. There's a bunch of stats that we offer
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on this website that are, are not really offered at
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other websites. Um, and that's just because I'm, it's a
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quantity over quality thing, right? Like I I'm, I'm, I'm
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trying to give, uh, you know, there's, There's a bunch
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of things that I am creating models for that I
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need to make sure are repeatable. If I'm creating a model,
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then it's gone through the wood chipper. I've taken out
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everything that doesn't matter, left it with everything that does matter.
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But when I say quantity over quality, what I'm talking
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about is observed measurements. For our goalie page, I've got
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how many shots did he face from the left side?
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How many deflections did he face? How many.
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And then for the team page, I got how many
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minutes did they spend with an attacking purpose? There's just
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a bunch of different stuff that you can explore. And
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then I have the statistical methodology in there to adjust
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for it so that you can not be fooled by
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things like high sample size. For instance, my shift dashboard
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has a little toggle that you can... There's a technique
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called shrinking. And it means that for really small samples,
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you assume that it's going to come back towards the
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mean eventually. So if you hit this toggle, it will
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show you what would you expect that this kind of
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thing would produce on the whole season, right? So all
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of these things are not stuff that I saw on
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other websites a ton. They're things that I wish they
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existed when I was a blogger. And so I created
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a website that had it, right? And it was basically
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what I would have used. It's basically what I would
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have used if I was a blogger. And I was like, well,
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as long as I'm making it, I might as well
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give it to other people.
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What's... Do you have like an end game in mind?
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Like what's, what's the, where are you trying to, you know,
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I guess, where do you want this to go? Like,
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are you, are you trying to be the next, I don't,
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I don't, I don't even want to like answer for you. Like,
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is it, is it a means to a hockey career?
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Is it, is it just, you know, you just, it's
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a passion project. That's fun to do on the side
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of your desk. You know, what's, what's the, uh, means
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to the end here.
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Out of curiosity.
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Yeah. Right now, I'm trying to figure out what it is.
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You know what I mean? With anyone who starts out
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a website, yeah, I want to see how people are
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using it. I want to see what the... Sometimes I
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don't even know what kinds of people are going to
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be using it. Like I said, the principle is to
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help people tell stories. Obviously, my Twitter followership is going
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to have a lot of computer boys on it. I'm
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sure they're going to thumb around there just to.
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Figure out who has the highest X. Right. Um, but
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I also could see, you know, you know, I've been,
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I've been a few like hockey writers have reached out
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to me saying that they're, you know, they're really happy
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that they finally have somewhere to go that they can
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check this kind of thing. Um, that they don't have
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to be like, you know, paying proprietary, you know, money
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to get sports logic access, right. That they can finally
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have something like this, um, in the public.
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Right.
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Uh, so, uh, you know, In the near term, right
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now we're in beta testing. Everyone can get all the
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information for free. The only thing that you can't get
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for free right now is stuff that is from Corey Schneider, who,
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if people listening don't know, I'm not talking about the
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ex-Devils goalie. Corey Schneider is an individual man that tracks
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hundreds of NHL games a season and records zone entries,
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zone exits, shot assists, a whole bunch of stuff that's
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not in the NHL play-by-play.
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All right.
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Um, and he's great at what he does. Um, he's
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not a web designer. He's not a statistician. So I,
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it's not the first time I've worked with him. Um,
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but I've always felt like there needed to be a
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better way. Yeah.
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He's yeah.
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Phenomenal. Um, I've always felt like there needed to be. Yeah.
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It's kind of funny.
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You just reminded me of this story I had from,
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you know, cause I, you know, I do have a
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media pass.
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I do cover the, you know, the devil's games that
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I can get up to Newark.
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Um, But my seat is right in front of the
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statisticians who are behind me. And the way that they
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track stats that go to NHL.com is there's literally a
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guy watching the game and yelling and another guy writing
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it down. I was like, this is such a flawed system. Like,
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this is a– it's like takeaway by 28. It's like
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shot on goal by 28. Missed the net. And there's
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just a guy fiercely typing. I'm like, there's got to
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be a better way. And I see guys like you
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who are, like, trying to find a– and, like, credit
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to the NHL because the NHL edge stuff is great.
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Like, I love that stuff.
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That stuff has been kind of a game changer to
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see those types of analytics, like speed and shot location
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and things like that.
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But this stuff's great.
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And I love the badges because the badges are giving me, like,
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EA Sports vibes. And I don't love EA Sports, but
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I love the badges part. Like– to have kind of
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00:25:34.160 --> 00:25:37.079
like a, who falls into this category and like, who's
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the surprising guy. And like, that's a story right there
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00:25:39.779 --> 00:25:42.799
as a blogger myself, where you'd be like, Oh wow. Like,
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you know, Jack Hughes is an elite penalty killers.
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That's interesting.
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Like how, why is that? And then diving into the stats,
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I think that there's definitely a story there. I do,
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you know, we're kind of limited on time. So I
468
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want to make sure that we do get into devil's
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hockey and kind of your thoughts there. So before we
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get into that, is there any last things to like
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last sell pieces that you want, to do for post
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hockey to, to our audience?
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No, check out post hockey.com. There's a, I mean, there is,
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there is a payment thing on there. If you want
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to help me out, um, when I'm getting started here,
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you know, I do have server costs and stuff like that. Uh,
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so if anyone wants to help make sure that I
478
00:26:19.230 --> 00:26:22.470
can afford to handle the traffic and everything, um, you can,
479
00:26:22.569 --> 00:26:24.630
you can go give me some money over there. Uh,
480
00:26:24.690 --> 00:26:27.309
but like I said, everything other than Corey's stats are
481
00:26:27.450 --> 00:26:29.880
all free. And if you're already a Corey subscriber, then
482
00:26:29.910 --> 00:26:33.450
everything is free. for as long as we're beta testing.
483
00:26:33.630 --> 00:26:36.420
I expect to probably be at least through the calendar year.
484
00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:41.960
We'll see where things go January 1st. That's the plan
485
00:26:42.000 --> 00:26:43.980
right now. Check out posthockey.com.
486
00:26:45.079 --> 00:26:48.859
We love that. Let's talk about the Devils real quick. Obviously,
487
00:26:48.900 --> 00:26:49.680
the sky is falling.
488
00:26:49.940 --> 00:26:51.920
I don't know if you've noticed, but the sky is falling.
489
00:26:52.680 --> 00:26:56.490
We've lost every game. The team is terrible. I think
490
00:26:56.509 --> 00:26:59.609
we rehired Tom Fitzgerald, but this time as first-line center.
491
00:27:00.170 --> 00:27:02.069
So I think, like, that's just kind of where.
492
00:27:02.150 --> 00:27:07.430
No. I think there's an interesting.
493
00:27:07.069 --> 00:27:09.380
Dichotomy right now between the eye test community and the
494
00:27:09.410 --> 00:27:13.000
analytics community, specifically about the Devils season. Because I think, analytically,
495
00:27:13.019 --> 00:27:16.400
they've been superb. When you see them on the ice,
496
00:27:16.859 --> 00:27:19.079
they've looked... I don't want to say terrible, but average,
497
00:27:19.299 --> 00:27:23.119
I'll say. What's your analysis, like, so far coming into
498
00:27:23.160 --> 00:27:25.380
the season? I shared the stat that you shared about
499
00:27:25.420 --> 00:27:26.210
how the Devils are 3-3 in 22-23.
500
00:27:26.200 --> 00:27:26.279
Okay.
501
00:27:28.099 --> 00:27:30.200
And then their XG was off the charts, and it
502
00:27:30.299 --> 00:27:32.400
kind of is falling to that same block this year.
503
00:27:32.769 --> 00:27:35.450
What's your analysis, you know, seeing this team for six games?
504
00:27:37.490 --> 00:27:39.769
Yeah, I think that the amount of, you know, the
505
00:27:39.789 --> 00:27:44.190
amount of new pieces makes it so that there's a
506
00:27:44.349 --> 00:27:47.390
few elements that make the jury still out. I had
507
00:27:47.450 --> 00:27:51.759
concerns about the team entering the season on the defensive
508
00:27:51.859 --> 00:27:55.460
end and on the goaltending end, right? You know, not
509
00:27:55.480 --> 00:27:58.410
that I thought Markstrom was... you know, particularly good and
510
00:27:58.430 --> 00:28:01.380
certainly not worth the contract, especially when we have Jake Allen,
511
00:28:01.420 --> 00:28:05.099
who was more efficient and for much cheaper. Right. But,
512
00:28:05.319 --> 00:28:09.420
you know, Nico Dawes was relatively unproven. So I didn't
513
00:28:09.460 --> 00:28:10.880
know how that would hold up over the course of
514
00:28:10.940 --> 00:28:14.589
a whole season. And I've been critical of this defensive
515
00:28:14.650 --> 00:28:18.289
core pretty much since the end of the Damon Severson era,
516
00:28:19.549 --> 00:28:25.000
because we, we pivoted to just such a, a defense
517
00:28:25.339 --> 00:28:29.150
centered position. defensive core which is a very traditional view
518
00:28:29.230 --> 00:28:31.490
of how to defend like i mentioned marino as like
519
00:28:31.529 --> 00:28:33.730
my uh as an example of one of the guys
520
00:28:33.750 --> 00:28:36.609
that i like to uh that that motivated the you
521
00:28:36.730 --> 00:28:39.650
know the badge system on my website um oh he
522
00:28:39.670 --> 00:28:42.269
had i forgot to close that circle he has the
523
00:28:42.289 --> 00:28:45.029
boomerang badge which is you retrieve a dump and then
524
00:28:45.069 --> 00:28:47.470
you turn it into a possession exit i just remembered
525
00:28:47.529 --> 00:28:49.539
i forgot how to i i was that was why
526
00:28:49.579 --> 00:28:52.420
that was why i mentioned him for badges um but
527
00:28:52.440 --> 00:28:58.000
yeah so now we have we have a relatively immobile, uh,
528
00:28:58.220 --> 00:29:02.259
defensive core. Um, if, if Luke isn't out there really,
529
00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:04.720
no one's a puck mover. Like Dougie is a very
530
00:29:04.740 --> 00:29:08.740
good offensive defenseman, but he's not a puck mover. Like
531
00:29:08.759 --> 00:29:12.259
he's not, he's not going coast to coast anytime. You
532
00:29:12.279 --> 00:29:14.549
know what I mean? So it makes it kind of
533
00:29:14.609 --> 00:29:17.869
tough to really play a cohesive five man game when
534
00:29:17.890 --> 00:29:20.900
we're out on the ice. Um, And so you need
535
00:29:21.000 --> 00:29:23.500
the you really need the forward line to be clicking
536
00:29:23.519 --> 00:29:25.420
with themselves very well. And when you have this many
537
00:29:25.460 --> 00:29:28.079
new faces, you're going to have some adjustment periods, right? Like,
538
00:29:28.400 --> 00:29:30.059
we really thought Anthony Manta was going to be the
539
00:29:30.119 --> 00:29:33.890
perfect fit alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, because he
540
00:29:34.630 --> 00:29:36.809
is the finisher, right? Like he's on my side, he's
541
00:29:36.849 --> 00:29:38.470
got a finishing badge, he was he had one of
542
00:29:38.490 --> 00:29:40.349
the highest finishing talents in the league last year. year
543
00:29:40.750 --> 00:29:42.630
right that's exactly the kind of thing that a line
544
00:29:42.670 --> 00:29:45.769
with two playmakers should want but i mean for the
545
00:29:45.809 --> 00:29:47.470
first couple games it kind of just looked like he
546
00:29:47.509 --> 00:29:49.359
was out there staring at them being like wow these
547
00:29:49.380 --> 00:29:50.069
guys are good.
548
00:29:50.930 --> 00:29:52.890
You know what i mean and he said that he
549
00:29:52.910 --> 00:29:55.440
said that i think yesterday right after the game he
550
00:29:55.460 --> 00:29:57.019
said They just go.
551
00:29:57.200 --> 00:29:59.019
He's like, they just play. And I'm just like trying
552
00:29:59.039 --> 00:30:00.619
to figure out where to go, man. Right.
553
00:30:00.640 --> 00:30:04.440
He's like, they're really hockey out there, aren't they?
554
00:30:04.660 --> 00:30:07.619
Right. Right. Yeah. He's like, they're going east west and
555
00:30:07.660 --> 00:30:09.789
I'm trying to go north. And I don't like he. Right.
556
00:30:09.869 --> 00:30:12.269
He seemed like, you know, we forget about the human
557
00:30:12.349 --> 00:30:14.990
element of like trying to, you know, we just try
558
00:30:15.009 --> 00:30:17.869
to put like pegs in the holes when these guys
559
00:30:17.930 --> 00:30:18.450
are just like.
560
00:30:19.349 --> 00:30:20.920
So, yeah, exactly.
561
00:30:20.960 --> 00:30:23.299
Yeah. So there's going to be some experimentations. I do
562
00:30:23.359 --> 00:30:25.640
think that there were things that Keefe still needs to
563
00:30:25.660 --> 00:30:27.299
learn about these guys, that these guys still need to
564
00:30:27.339 --> 00:30:29.240
learn about each other. But you saw an example of
565
00:30:29.279 --> 00:30:32.069
it last night where they put Gritsiuk up with them.
566
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:34.609
And that line feels like it clicked a little bit better.
567
00:30:34.789 --> 00:30:36.509
The fourth line felt kind of lost in the beginning
568
00:30:36.529 --> 00:30:38.970
of the year. But now those guys, I mean, Lombardi's
569
00:30:39.210 --> 00:30:42.869
penalty problems aside, right? Those guys, when they're clicking, they're
570
00:30:43.109 --> 00:30:46.309
really flying out there. And it looks different. It looks
571
00:30:46.329 --> 00:30:49.769
like what you really want a fourth line to look like.
572
00:30:50.150 --> 00:30:56.009
It's probably not a coincidence that we brought over Boakvist,
573
00:30:56.390 --> 00:31:00.299
who was that same kind of guy in Florida. I
574
00:31:00.319 --> 00:31:02.099
think that Sonny has an idea about what he might
575
00:31:02.160 --> 00:31:05.619
want a fourth line to look like. It's also not
576
00:31:05.640 --> 00:31:07.630
that dissimilar from what our fourth line looked like back
577
00:31:07.670 --> 00:31:09.029
in 2022-23 when we had the BMW guys that were
578
00:31:09.049 --> 00:31:09.210
the only.
579
00:31:12.019 --> 00:31:15.059
Curveball that we could throw in a lineup full of fastballs, right?
580
00:31:15.099 --> 00:31:17.700
Like they were the only cycling unit. And so sometimes
581
00:31:17.740 --> 00:31:19.480
they were the only ones that could get something done, right?
582
00:31:19.500 --> 00:31:21.220
In the playoffs, they actually saw that they were sometimes
583
00:31:21.240 --> 00:31:23.279
the only ones that could get stuff done. So you
584
00:31:23.299 --> 00:31:25.640
need to kind of experiment with some of these pieces.
585
00:31:26.000 --> 00:31:27.819
And I think that last night you saw what it
586
00:31:27.859 --> 00:31:32.740
would look like when, and sometimes when that clicks, the
587
00:31:32.789 --> 00:31:35.529
expected goals turn into actual goals, right? Expected goals are
588
00:31:35.549 --> 00:31:38.890
about where you can get in the ice mostly, right?
589
00:31:39.450 --> 00:31:42.410
But if you are not used to being in that spot,
590
00:31:42.779 --> 00:31:45.640
in that rhythm, then you might not convert at the
591
00:31:45.680 --> 00:31:48.740
rate you would expect to, right? But if you're always there,
592
00:31:48.759 --> 00:31:51.640
if you're always clicking and you're exactly where you're supposed
593
00:31:51.680 --> 00:31:53.420
to be, you know when the puck is coming to you,
594
00:31:53.680 --> 00:31:56.250
you've started pulling the stick back before the puck is
595
00:31:56.309 --> 00:31:58.829
even in front of you, now you can finish those
596
00:31:58.890 --> 00:32:02.490
expected goals, right? So I think that it's not surprising
597
00:32:02.569 --> 00:32:04.869
that early in a season with a lot of new faces,
598
00:32:04.910 --> 00:32:08.579
you saw a little bit of underachievement Uh, it's a
599
00:32:08.700 --> 00:32:12.740
lot of underachievement and that doesn't necessarily, sometimes people have
600
00:32:12.759 --> 00:32:16.240
this misconception that like automatically you'll regress to the mean
601
00:32:16.279 --> 00:32:18.880
they're like automatically the expected you'll, the goals will approach
602
00:32:18.920 --> 00:32:21.240
the expected goals. That's not always the case. We do
603
00:32:21.299 --> 00:32:22.940
see that happen over the course of the season, but
604
00:32:22.960 --> 00:32:27.200
a lot of times that's because the humans are making adjustments, right? The, the,
605
00:32:27.240 --> 00:32:29.859
the players are getting used to the system. The coaches
606
00:32:29.880 --> 00:32:32.630
are making changes to how they're running things. So it
607
00:32:32.670 --> 00:32:35.529
doesn't just happen. If nobody changed anything, it is very
608
00:32:35.589 --> 00:32:38.269
possible that you could continue to have massive underachievement. I
609
00:32:38.269 --> 00:32:39.509
don't know if it would be this size. We were
610
00:32:39.529 --> 00:32:44.660
underachieving by like 50%, which is, I think, on its face, unsustainable, right?
611
00:32:46.019 --> 00:32:48.259
But I do think that it's going to go, you know,
612
00:32:48.599 --> 00:32:50.799
the goal count is going to start to inch slowly
613
00:32:50.839 --> 00:32:53.220
and slow more and more towards the expected goal count
614
00:32:53.240 --> 00:32:54.980
for the Devils, especially as they get more used.
615
00:32:54.900 --> 00:32:55.279
To each other.
616
00:32:56.700 --> 00:33:03.650
Last question for you. Do you like... the devil's volume approach. Like,
617
00:33:04.650 --> 00:33:10.079
Jack Hughes taking 19 shot attempts. Right now, the only
618
00:33:10.140 --> 00:33:14.420
team who has a better shot differential, even on goal,
619
00:33:14.539 --> 00:33:17.200
just shots on goal, is the Carolina Hurricanes at 5v5.
620
00:33:17.299 --> 00:33:19.299
I don't know about power play and all that, but
621
00:33:19.440 --> 00:33:22.019
at 5v5, the only team that has a better shot
622
00:33:22.059 --> 00:33:23.940
differential in the league is Carolina.
623
00:33:24.029 --> 00:33:25.410
I think it's literally by one shot.
624
00:33:25.549 --> 00:33:29.329
It's like by two one-hundredths of a percentage point.
625
00:33:30.269 --> 00:33:32.730
Do you like that approach to hockey?
626
00:33:35.430 --> 00:33:37.029
So I think I'm going to borrow a page from
627
00:33:37.069 --> 00:33:38.809
Sonny's book here and say that I think it depends
628
00:33:38.910 --> 00:33:40.890
on your, you know, the tools that you have on
629
00:33:40.910 --> 00:33:44.150
your roster. Right. Like there there's there's teams that shouldn't
630
00:33:44.210 --> 00:33:48.019
be playing that game. There's teams that should be looking
631
00:33:48.099 --> 00:33:53.299
for the perfect opportunity for their skilled finishers. and there's
632
00:33:53.319 --> 00:33:56.180
teams that should be just cycling until you wear the
633
00:33:56.200 --> 00:34:00.180
team out and there's an open pass to the slot
634
00:34:00.220 --> 00:34:02.910
and then you can finish there, right? We're not those teams.
635
00:34:03.049 --> 00:34:05.029
So do I think that it's a good fit for
636
00:34:05.210 --> 00:34:08.929
our roster? I do. I think that there are some
637
00:34:08.989 --> 00:34:12.710
roles that we hadn't been using well. I think there
638
00:34:12.730 --> 00:34:15.070
were some gaps in the roles that we needed to
639
00:34:15.110 --> 00:34:18.840
be filled by a scheme like that. For instance, you know,
640
00:34:19.570 --> 00:34:22.000
you mentioned that, you know, we're volume based team. Jack
641
00:34:22.019 --> 00:34:23.679
is firing at the net from every direction.
642
00:34:23.719 --> 00:34:23.880
Right.
643
00:34:24.219 --> 00:34:26.300
So you have to think about what's a good player
644
00:34:26.380 --> 00:34:27.840
to play with a guy like that.
645
00:34:27.920 --> 00:34:28.039
Right.
646
00:34:28.079 --> 00:34:30.679
But people call Jack a playmaker and he is a playmaker,
647
00:34:30.980 --> 00:34:32.760
but sometimes it's a little bit different than the way
648
00:34:32.800 --> 00:34:33.380
people think.
649
00:34:33.480 --> 00:34:33.659
Right.
650
00:34:33.940 --> 00:34:35.900
He, he can get a lot of his assists come
651
00:34:35.920 --> 00:34:36.820
off of shots too.
652
00:34:37.380 --> 00:34:37.599
Right.
653
00:34:38.119 --> 00:34:39.320
Uh, not just passing.
654
00:34:39.440 --> 00:34:39.579
Right.
655
00:34:39.860 --> 00:34:41.610
He had, what did they say? It was like 19
656
00:34:41.610 --> 00:34:43.849
shot attempts. The other, the other game, right. He's looking
657
00:34:43.889 --> 00:34:47.530
to shoot. He's not by any means a pass first player.
658
00:34:47.989 --> 00:34:48.190
Right.
659
00:34:48.730 --> 00:34:52.090
Um, I do think that's just– not to cut you off,
660
00:34:52.110 --> 00:34:54.570
but I think that comes from his draft year. We
661
00:34:54.610 --> 00:34:56.429
thought he was going to be like a 100-point, like
662
00:34:56.449 --> 00:35:00.260
30-70 guy. We did not think he was going to
663
00:35:00.400 --> 00:35:01.360
be a 40-65 guy.
664
00:35:02.199 --> 00:35:05.440
He might be because, like I said, those shots produce rebounds,
665
00:35:05.480 --> 00:35:08.579
and those rebounds produce some of the highest conversion opportunities
666
00:35:09.099 --> 00:35:12.079
in hockey, right? Then you have to think, what is
667
00:35:12.119 --> 00:35:14.780
the kind of guy that plays well with someone like this? Well,
668
00:35:14.800 --> 00:35:16.989
you need someone fast and aggressive that can pick up
669
00:35:17.010 --> 00:35:20.110
the rebounds. And you need someone that is good in
670
00:35:20.150 --> 00:35:22.469
front of the net so that he can, uh, you know,
671
00:35:22.510 --> 00:35:25.510
he can screen. And if there's any loose garbage in front,
672
00:35:25.550 --> 00:35:27.690
then he'll get that for you. You know what I mean? So,
673
00:35:27.809 --> 00:35:29.110
but you know, an example of one of these guys
674
00:35:29.150 --> 00:35:31.050
was I said, I thought I'll always, I thought a
675
00:35:31.090 --> 00:35:32.329
good line made for him would be a guy like
676
00:35:32.369 --> 00:35:35.869
Brian rust. Right. Uh, who's great at all of those things.
677
00:35:36.150 --> 00:35:36.329
Right.
678
00:35:36.889 --> 00:35:40.739
Um, That's not saying that the acquisition might not have
679
00:35:40.800 --> 00:35:43.079
ever been feasible. I'm not saying that we should have
680
00:35:43.099 --> 00:35:44.860
gone out and got Brian Rust. I'm just saying that
681
00:35:45.139 --> 00:35:45.960
that prototype is.
682
00:35:45.980 --> 00:35:50.099
Nobody got Brian Rust, so clearly it was too expensive. Right, exactly.
683
00:35:50.400 --> 00:35:53.570
So I'm saying that that prototype of a player might
684
00:35:53.590 --> 00:35:56.570
have been a better fit than the Teemo or than
685
00:35:56.630 --> 00:35:57.230
the Manta.
686
00:35:57.489 --> 00:35:57.969
You know what I mean?
687
00:35:59.469 --> 00:36:01.309
Sometimes it doesn't work the way that you think it does,
688
00:36:01.550 --> 00:36:05.280
but there are ways to leverage the roster effectively. to
689
00:36:05.340 --> 00:36:09.199
play a highly successful volume-based game. And I think that
690
00:36:09.219 --> 00:36:11.039
Sonny had a little bit of a better hold on
691
00:36:11.079 --> 00:36:12.679
what that would look like than Fitzgerald did.
692
00:36:14.039 --> 00:36:14.440
Makes sense.
693
00:36:14.820 --> 00:36:18.000
All right, well, CJ, I really appreciate you coming on,
694
00:36:18.760 --> 00:36:21.519
telling us about analytics, teaching us a lot. We're going
695
00:36:21.539 --> 00:36:23.619
to have you on again as you get out of beta,
696
00:36:23.699 --> 00:36:26.760
as you learn more about post-hockeys. We want to promote
697
00:36:26.800 --> 00:36:31.150
this because we love a devil's person. I love Corey,
698
00:36:31.170 --> 00:36:33.909
but he's a Carolina guy. We don't need more of that.
699
00:36:34.030 --> 00:36:38.969
We need more Devils people doing Devils stats. Everybody go
700
00:36:39.010 --> 00:36:44.110
to Post Hockey. Give CJ all of your incremental income
701
00:36:44.159 --> 00:36:46.019
just to help him out so he can keep his
702
00:36:46.059 --> 00:36:49.739
servers running and everybody can get more of this Post
703
00:36:49.760 --> 00:36:50.679
Hockey goodness.
704
00:36:51.179 --> 00:36:53.659
CJ, we really appreciate you having me on. We'll have
705
00:36:53.679 --> 00:36:55.760
you on again soon. Thanks.
706
00:36:55.780 --> 00:36:57.960
I really appreciate you giving me the time, man. Always
707
00:36:57.980 --> 00:36:58.239
a pleasure.
708
00:36:59.460 --> 00:37:05.110
Thanks, CJ. That's CJ Turturro. You'll find him on X-Act,
709
00:37:05.570 --> 00:37:07.190
CJT Devil.
710
00:37:09.989 --> 00:37:10.909
I learned a lot.
711
00:37:11.289 --> 00:37:15.610
I was just digesting the entire time. I was just digesting.
712
00:37:17.429 --> 00:37:21.920
Very interesting that, you know, I like CJ because he's
713
00:37:21.960 --> 00:37:22.780
an analytical nut.
714
00:37:22.880 --> 00:37:25.260
Like, he loves analytics, but at the same time, like,
715
00:37:25.300 --> 00:37:32.969
he brings... into his analytics, right?
716
00:37:33.429 --> 00:37:36.010
And I think people, I think, you know, I think
717
00:37:36.110 --> 00:37:38.639
him doing this for so long, he said 15 years
718
00:37:38.679 --> 00:37:43.420
he's been doing this with analytics, you know, integrating it
719
00:37:43.500 --> 00:37:47.219
into his analysis and his writing and whatever he's working on.
720
00:37:48.800 --> 00:37:54.269
I think it goes to show how much he's learned because.
721
00:37:54.289 --> 00:37:58.000
And I think like, Damo Schism at The Athletic is
722
00:37:58.239 --> 00:38:00.579
a perfect example. Damo Schism, when he was first hired
723
00:38:00.599 --> 00:38:04.280
by The Athletic, was like, this is what my number says, and.
724
00:38:05.809 --> 00:38:06.630
This is what it is.
725
00:38:07.269 --> 00:38:09.449
But now if you see him kind of analyze his
726
00:38:09.489 --> 00:38:13.190
own numbers, he kind of finds where it makes the
727
00:38:13.230 --> 00:38:16.630
most sense and utilizes it in that way. I think
728
00:38:16.670 --> 00:38:18.650
CJ has been doing that for years. And CJ, I'm
729
00:38:18.789 --> 00:38:21.230
so happy that he's going on his own and doing
730
00:38:21.690 --> 00:38:22.510
his website because.
731
00:38:26.159 --> 00:38:28.380
You know me, Sam. I like analytics.
732
00:38:28.400 --> 00:38:31.739
Me and CJ were talking on the side about this
733
00:38:31.800 --> 00:38:36.289
where I will only use analytics in my work that
734
00:38:36.329 --> 00:38:39.809
I can explain to you in layman's terms. I will
735
00:38:40.429 --> 00:38:44.050
use XG to lead me to a story and then
736
00:38:44.070 --> 00:38:47.150
I'll use other stats to tell that story. Like the
737
00:38:47.170 --> 00:38:51.429
Timo Meier story where he led the league in individual XG.
738
00:38:51.469 --> 00:38:53.389
The only story I told about that is how interesting
739
00:38:53.409 --> 00:38:56.059
it was that he did lead in that stat Not
740
00:38:56.079 --> 00:38:58.420
that that stat told the story, but you find the
741
00:38:58.460 --> 00:39:02.420
story within that stat. I think CJ is trying to
742
00:39:02.599 --> 00:39:06.760
have the stat tell the story, which you need a
743
00:39:07.019 --> 00:39:08.639
certain level of logic.
744
00:39:08.260 --> 00:39:10.219
And understanding to do. So I think he's doing a
745
00:39:10.239 --> 00:39:10.880
great job of that.
746
00:39:12.480 --> 00:39:13.679
Yeah, definitely.
747
00:39:13.860 --> 00:39:19.039
That might've been word salad, Sam. I don't think that was, well, well.
748
00:39:19.059 --> 00:39:21.480
I, I reposted what he, what he, what he put
749
00:39:21.619 --> 00:39:28.030
out there about 2023. And, um, Because without saying, and
750
00:39:28.170 --> 00:39:29.929
that's why I keep on saying, the devils are the best.
751
00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:31.980
3-3 team in the NHL.
752
00:39:34.840 --> 00:39:35.239
I mean, I.
753
00:39:37.219 --> 00:39:39.739
Think Jack Hughes is the best 3-3 player in the
754
00:39:39.800 --> 00:39:40.610
history of the NHL.
755
00:39:42.269 --> 00:39:42.469
Ever.
756
00:39:44.190 --> 00:39:46.010
I was talking to J.B. Gambates, and he's going to
757
00:39:46.030 --> 00:39:47.789
write an article about this because I think it's important.
758
00:39:49.320 --> 00:39:50.389
There is one.
759
00:39:52.849 --> 00:39:58.889
Important men's game that went to 3-on-3. And Jack Hughes
760
00:39:58.949 --> 00:39:59.289
ended it.
761
00:40:03.309 --> 00:40:03.570
Right?
762
00:40:03.730 --> 00:40:08.440
Has there ever been a 3-on-3 game that's important? High leverage,
763
00:40:08.760 --> 00:40:10.360
actual something on the line.
764
00:40:12.179 --> 00:40:13.579
Not recent memory.
765
00:40:14.619 --> 00:40:19.340
I mean, the 3-on-3... The 3-on-3... It didn't really come
766
00:40:19.780 --> 00:40:22.019
about into fruition until recently.
767
00:40:22.039 --> 00:40:25.199
It was like 2016?
768
00:40:25.199 --> 00:40:28.039
Was that when they implemented it? 2018 when they implemented it?
769
00:40:28.059 --> 00:40:32.550
Something like that. Yeah, I mean, it was, remember, 4-on-4 overtime.
770
00:40:32.570 --> 00:40:37.010
But back in my day, it was 5-on-5, five minutes,
771
00:40:37.030 --> 00:40:42.489
and there were ties. But the 3-on-3, I mean, it's
772
00:40:42.530 --> 00:40:45.469
just a different game. And it fits Jack Hughes. I mean,
773
00:40:45.489 --> 00:40:48.329
it's wide open. I mean, sometimes I wonder if the
774
00:40:48.369 --> 00:40:50.699
Devils are on a five-on-three power play, if they should
775
00:40:50.739 --> 00:40:53.179
just take the two guys and let them sit the
776
00:40:53.239 --> 00:40:56.960
bench and let them play three-on-three. You know, sometimes I wonder,
777
00:40:57.880 --> 00:41:00.519
you know, about that. It'd be kind of funny. And
778
00:41:00.559 --> 00:41:02.599
then you have two forwards that would just sneak onto
779
00:41:02.639 --> 00:41:06.199
the ice when they're not expecting it, you know.
780
00:41:07.909 --> 00:41:08.849
What if you're allowed to do that?
781
00:41:09.289 --> 00:41:09.750
I don't know.
782
00:41:10.070 --> 00:41:11.590
I know the rule book pretty well, but I don't
783
00:41:11.630 --> 00:41:12.929
know about that specific rule.
784
00:41:13.309 --> 00:41:16.650
I know LaCroix can do that, but hockey. Yeah.
785
00:41:18.500 --> 00:41:20.360
Yeah, lacrosse is the only other sport that I can
786
00:41:20.380 --> 00:41:24.860
think of that has on-the-fly changes. Where you can have
787
00:41:24.920 --> 00:41:27.099
a guy just jump onto the field and jump off.
788
00:41:27.219 --> 00:41:30.960
But it's not as... Well, hockey can do that. That's
789
00:41:31.989 --> 00:41:32.389
what I'm saying.
790
00:41:32.409 --> 00:41:35.929
The only other sport I said. Oh, okay. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
791
00:41:35.989 --> 00:41:36.949
You can't do that in baseball.
792
00:41:37.269 --> 00:41:39.849
Aaron Judge can't just run off in the middle of
793
00:41:39.909 --> 00:41:41.590
the play and Trent Grisham comes off.
794
00:41:41.670 --> 00:41:42.309
Oh, God forbid.
795
00:41:42.969 --> 00:41:45.210
And basketball, you need a stoppage.
796
00:41:46.090 --> 00:41:48.530
Yeah, you need a stoppage in basketball, football, you need
797
00:41:48.570 --> 00:41:51.469
a stoppage, you know, play to play. So, and that was, I,
798
00:41:51.610 --> 00:41:53.329
you know, I wanted to get into so much other,
799
00:41:53.670 --> 00:41:55.630
so much more with CJ, but you know, we were just,
800
00:41:55.710 --> 00:41:58.780
we were just shooting the stuff and it got well,
801
00:41:58.800 --> 00:42:04.460
but I, I am curious how much of an impact
802
00:42:04.519 --> 00:42:08.400
the speed of the NHL has on analytics that, that
803
00:42:08.559 --> 00:42:12.440
say like, like basketball's big.
804
00:42:12.320 --> 00:42:19.219
Analytics is like, you know, PER. And then there's, like,
805
00:42:19.320 --> 00:42:21.739
point differential per 60.
806
00:42:21.739 --> 00:42:24.260
Like, if you took, like, a whole game, and then, like,
807
00:42:24.320 --> 00:42:26.260
what the point differential is for that player playing a
808
00:42:26.280 --> 00:42:29.139
whole game over the aggregate. Like, those are very, like,
809
00:42:29.340 --> 00:42:34.320
easy to understand stats. Baseball has some interesting ones, but
810
00:42:35.119 --> 00:42:38.550
outside of war, I can explain a baseball stat no
811
00:42:38.590 --> 00:42:43.849
matter what it is. And then football....
812
00:42:45.010 --> 00:42:45.460
You know, I.
813
00:42:46.050 --> 00:42:47.880
The one you can't explain is QBR. I have no
814
00:42:47.929 --> 00:42:50.840
idea what that is. And then there's some of the
815
00:42:50.900 --> 00:42:54.420
PFF stats, like the pro football focus stats that are
816
00:42:54.440 --> 00:42:57.059
a little like out there that you're like, again, like
817
00:42:57.500 --> 00:43:01.570
you need to be kind of have like a calculus
818
00:43:01.610 --> 00:43:05.090
degree just to kind of understand them. But when you
819
00:43:05.110 --> 00:43:06.869
look at like some of the other advanced analytics and
820
00:43:06.889 --> 00:43:10.760
like these sports, they don't really make sense. And hockey
821
00:43:10.800 --> 00:43:13.329
kind of have to like, I forgot who the coach was.
822
00:43:13.929 --> 00:43:16.849
Maybe it was Tockett or Hines. I don't remember exactly who,
823
00:43:16.869 --> 00:43:20.210
but he said he was talking about how he doesn't
824
00:43:20.610 --> 00:43:25.739
look at analytics for defensemen because there are a lot
825
00:43:25.760 --> 00:43:27.159
of the ones that you have to rely on are
826
00:43:27.400 --> 00:43:29.400
on ice stats, and there's just so much that goes
827
00:43:29.480 --> 00:43:36.219
into what's impacting a defenseman, right? It's zone starts. It's
828
00:43:37.079 --> 00:43:42.190
turnovers by the forwards. It's rebound control. You know, there's
829
00:43:42.210 --> 00:43:43.769
a lot of things that are outside of their control
830
00:43:44.789 --> 00:43:46.869
that are going to impact their stats in a negative way.
831
00:43:47.309 --> 00:43:49.630
And this is why I also like CJ's platform because,
832
00:43:49.650 --> 00:43:51.690
you know, he talked about the boomerang with John Marino.
833
00:43:52.730 --> 00:43:57.190
And I'm somebody who's like, I prioritize possession. And I
834
00:43:57.230 --> 00:44:01.070
think that's the one thing from the Lindy Ruff system
835
00:44:01.110 --> 00:44:03.329
that they really need to bring back. It's like possession
836
00:44:04.639 --> 00:44:06.929
is a gift and you need to treat it as such.
837
00:44:07.739 --> 00:44:12.760
And you don't just throw it away. To be fair,
838
00:44:12.800 --> 00:44:15.000
the Devils have been incredible at the dump and chase
839
00:44:15.039 --> 00:44:19.280
this year. They've been stupendous. I need to look at
840
00:44:19.320 --> 00:44:24.130
the statistic of how often they're having a positive outcome
841
00:44:24.190 --> 00:44:26.670
from the dump and chase. But they just seem to
842
00:44:26.949 --> 00:44:32.289
cause a lot of offensive zone turnovers. And I think
843
00:44:32.349 --> 00:44:37.800
it's a reason why I think it's going to turn.
844
00:44:37.840 --> 00:44:40.619
The goal scoring is going to turn. A, it's unsustainable
845
00:44:40.659 --> 00:44:42.900
how bad it's been, and CJ kind of touched on that.
846
00:44:43.760 --> 00:44:47.380
Their shooting percentage is at 5%. That's just not possible.
847
00:44:47.719 --> 00:44:51.679
Even Detroit and Chicago and these terrible teams are going
848
00:44:51.719 --> 00:44:52.199
to shoot.
849
00:44:52.019 --> 00:44:53.940
Better than 5%.
850
00:44:53.940 --> 00:44:58.719
You know, 7% is the doldrums. So I think the
851
00:44:58.760 --> 00:45:01.380
Devils are going to get their shooting percentage up around
852
00:45:01.380 --> 00:45:03.179
10% by the end of the season.
853
00:45:04.159 --> 00:45:12.110
And To CJ's point about the defenseman, I.
854
00:45:15.719 --> 00:45:19.500
Can't say that I remember if Kovacevic had any mistakes
855
00:45:19.539 --> 00:45:21.739
last night. I don't remember seeing any. I thought he
856
00:45:21.760 --> 00:45:27.300
played a pretty standard, decent game for him. I think
857
00:45:27.320 --> 00:45:30.159
Dougie Hamilton had kind of a rough game, and he
858
00:45:30.219 --> 00:45:32.909
touched on that where he's not the best at zone exits,
859
00:45:32.969 --> 00:45:33.889
and I really wish he.
860
00:45:33.869 --> 00:45:36.050
Would get a little bit better at that. I didn't
861
00:45:36.309 --> 00:45:39.489
love that they put Hamilton back with Siegenthaler.
862
00:45:39.570 --> 00:45:41.570
I thought they just didn't. They aren't having a good
863
00:45:41.610 --> 00:45:45.400
season together. I'd rather have Kovacevic and Siegenthaler as that
864
00:45:45.440 --> 00:45:48.980
shutdown line. And then Chisholm and Hamilton seem to have
865
00:45:49.019 --> 00:45:50.639
a little bit of chemistry, so why not just put
866
00:45:50.679 --> 00:45:51.119
them together?
867
00:45:52.820 --> 00:45:54.360
That's the one thing. I liked a lot of what
868
00:45:54.380 --> 00:45:56.860
Sheldon Keefe did with the line changes last night. I
869
00:45:56.900 --> 00:45:58.139
didn't like that, though. I didn't like what he did
870
00:45:58.159 --> 00:46:03.699
with the defense. Yeah.
871
00:46:07.679 --> 00:46:08.659
Were you asking me a question?
872
00:46:10.219 --> 00:46:12.559
I guess I'm curious. What did you think of the
873
00:46:12.599 --> 00:46:15.699
defensive changes he made? He changed the lines up. All
874
00:46:15.719 --> 00:46:18.539
he did was really keep Luke and Pesci. He took
875
00:46:18.579 --> 00:46:23.750
Dylan out, put Kovacevic in, but he put Kovacevic with Chisholm,
876
00:46:24.829 --> 00:46:27.349
which I don't like that pairing. I'd rather have Kovacevic
877
00:46:27.389 --> 00:46:30.989
with Siegenthaler, who had great chemistry, than Hamilton with Chisholm,
878
00:46:31.090 --> 00:46:32.690
who seemed to be building great chemistry.
879
00:46:34.110 --> 00:46:36.949
I wouldn't put too much stock in it, Nick. You're
880
00:46:36.989 --> 00:46:40.969
only six games in. It was Kovacevic's first game back.
881
00:46:43.530 --> 00:46:44.820
I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
882
00:46:46.219 --> 00:46:48.000
Were you on board with taking Dylan out?
883
00:46:48.699 --> 00:46:49.039
What's that?
884
00:46:49.980 --> 00:46:51.579
Were you on board with taking Dylan out?
885
00:46:53.940 --> 00:47:01.909
Well, not really. But, you know, again, I like what
886
00:47:01.949 --> 00:47:04.949
Sheldon's doing in terms of trying to mix it up.
887
00:47:05.760 --> 00:47:08.050
You know, you don't know until you try. I mean,
888
00:47:08.619 --> 00:47:11.170
the best way to, you can't just do it in practice.
889
00:47:11.190 --> 00:47:13.570
You got to do it in the game. And this
890
00:47:13.610 --> 00:47:17.530
early in the season, I, you know, I'm all for it.
891
00:47:19.429 --> 00:47:19.610
Yeah.
892
00:47:20.849 --> 00:47:23.150
Yeah, again, I'm not going to overthink it. I do
893
00:47:23.250 --> 00:47:25.989
love that Manta.
894
00:47:25.690 --> 00:47:30.210
Rodriguez-Nason line, and I'm going to tell you why. Because,
895
00:47:30.389 --> 00:47:32.090
and CJ brought up this point, and I kind of
896
00:47:32.110 --> 00:47:34.139
made a similar point on Twitter, but he talked about
897
00:47:34.159 --> 00:47:37.010
the BMW line. And how they were a change of
898
00:47:37.130 --> 00:47:39.530
pace for that 2022-23 team.
899
00:47:40.230 --> 00:47:40.449
Yeah.
900
00:47:42.849 --> 00:47:43.670
And I think that.
901
00:47:43.630 --> 00:47:49.710
Manta-Rodriguez-Nason line is that change of pace that throws a
902
00:47:49.750 --> 00:47:51.309
team off so bad.
903
00:47:51.989 --> 00:47:52.869
That they score.
904
00:47:52.889 --> 00:48:00.800
Because they're so used to speed, movement, rush hockey, that
905
00:48:00.840 --> 00:48:03.239
when you put a team that grinds the game to
906
00:48:03.300 --> 00:48:07.480
a halt while you're in that mode, You have to adjust,
907
00:48:07.579 --> 00:48:10.760
and the best teams can, but I think Carolina is
908
00:48:10.780 --> 00:48:13.300
going to do good against a line like that, but
909
00:48:13.340 --> 00:48:15.179
I think 90% of the league is going to be
910
00:48:15.199 --> 00:48:17.099
thrown off, and you might get a goal or two
911
00:48:17.139 --> 00:48:21.139
out of that line every night just because of its
912
00:48:21.179 --> 00:48:31.860
high danger chances, its opportunistic movement, its relentless forechecking, You know,
913
00:48:31.880 --> 00:48:34.440
and it's not even using speed to forecheck. It's just
914
00:48:34.519 --> 00:48:39.480
a veteran presence, understanding, positioning type of forecheck, which Stephanie's slow.
915
00:48:40.119 --> 00:48:43.929
Compared to his teammates, he's slow. But he's in everybody's face.
916
00:48:45.530 --> 00:48:48.449
And the reason why that happens that way is because
917
00:48:48.469 --> 00:48:52.110
he's relentless and incredibly intelligent. Like, he knows exactly where
918
00:48:52.130 --> 00:48:56.550
he needs to be. And so, like, you know, I
919
00:48:56.590 --> 00:48:58.329
wrote an article before we got on the show tonight
920
00:48:59.469 --> 00:49:04.480
about Amadeus Lombardi. And I don't think I want to
921
00:49:04.500 --> 00:49:08.559
break up that line yet. It's a catch-22, right? If
922
00:49:08.579 --> 00:49:10.320
you're the Devils, do you break up the fourth line,
923
00:49:10.340 --> 00:49:12.510
which has been playing so well and Boquist has looked
924
00:49:12.550 --> 00:49:15.489
really good, or do you break up a line that's
925
00:49:15.769 --> 00:49:20.360
unlocked your $ 4. 5 million free agent who is set? he
926
00:49:20.500 --> 00:49:24.500
feels more comfortable there? You've got a goal out of Rodriguez,
927
00:49:24.519 --> 00:49:28.000
who's another new addition. You've also got the best out
928
00:49:28.039 --> 00:49:31.739
of Dawson Mercer that you've seen all year. You've got
929
00:49:31.840 --> 00:49:34.559
Arseny Gritsik, who played as well as.
930
00:49:34.449 --> 00:49:37.730
He has all season. The lines looked as, and again,
931
00:49:37.769 --> 00:49:38.309
it's Detroit.
932
00:49:38.630 --> 00:49:39.889
So you have to kind of take it with a
933
00:49:39.909 --> 00:49:43.269
grain of salt. But at the same time, this is
934
00:49:43.369 --> 00:49:47.090
as good of chemistry as we saw this season. So,
935
00:49:48.369 --> 00:49:52.389
six in one hand, half dozen in the other. I do,
936
00:49:52.489 --> 00:49:56.659
I just, yeah. I think, what would you, who are
937
00:49:56.699 --> 00:50:00.440
you taking out? Evangelista is healthy tomorrow. Who are you
938
00:50:00.460 --> 00:50:01.099
taking out of the lineup?
939
00:50:04.099 --> 00:50:06.579
That's a tough question. Well, I think Boquist has to
940
00:50:06.599 --> 00:50:07.940
stay in the lineup no matter what.
941
00:50:08.179 --> 00:50:08.360
Mm-hmm.
942
00:50:08.969 --> 00:50:15.130
I agree. I've always felt that the fourth line has
943
00:50:15.210 --> 00:50:20.969
been the best line. You know, so far, a small
944
00:50:21.030 --> 00:50:30.070
sample size of this six games into the season. That's
945
00:50:30.130 --> 00:50:35.269
a tough one. What are your thoughts about Timo Meier,
946
00:50:35.309 --> 00:50:36.769
how he's performed so far?
947
00:50:36.849 --> 00:50:37.170
Because.
948
00:50:38.630 --> 00:50:39.949
Has he been non-existent?
949
00:50:41.269 --> 00:50:44.530
He's definitely not non-existent. He's causing a lot of turnovers.
950
00:50:47.659 --> 00:50:50.090
His shots are getting blocked a lot, so he kind
951
00:50:50.110 --> 00:50:53.340
of has to figure out when's the best time to shoot,
952
00:50:53.679 --> 00:50:55.840
but he's making a lot of noise in the neutral
953
00:50:55.880 --> 00:51:03.960
zone and in the offensive zone when he doesn't have possession. Again,
954
00:51:03.980 --> 00:51:06.079
I just feel like I don't even want to predict
955
00:51:06.099 --> 00:51:09.340
it because we've been here so many times before Where
956
00:51:09.380 --> 00:51:12.400
it's like, I'm not going to predict a goal explosion
957
00:51:12.440 --> 00:51:14.940
because he's in position all the time and he's causing turnovers.
958
00:51:14.960 --> 00:51:16.900
Because we've been here in October. We've been here in November.
959
00:51:16.920 --> 00:51:19.239
We've been here in December. Got to wait until March.
960
00:51:20.079 --> 00:51:23.869
You know what I mean? Until I see it consistently,
961
00:51:23.889 --> 00:51:28.590
I don't want to bench him. Two reasons why I
962
00:51:28.590 --> 00:51:31.630
don't want to bench him. I think I would rather
963
00:51:31.690 --> 00:51:35.110
bench Nason than Meyer. And I think I'm going to
964
00:51:35.150 --> 00:51:39.719
choose to bench Lombardi for one game. Get him a
965
00:51:39.980 --> 00:51:43.500
reset against the Rangers because he can't take penalties against
966
00:51:43.519 --> 00:51:46.239
the Rangers. They're just going to score. Same thing with
967
00:51:46.260 --> 00:51:48.880
the Mammoth. He just can't take penalties against certain teams
968
00:51:49.119 --> 00:51:53.050
and he's taking too many penalties. And I think you
969
00:51:53.090 --> 00:51:56.789
can kind of workshop that fourth line with either Mercer
970
00:51:56.809 --> 00:52:00.170
or maybe put Evangelista on that fourth line. And you
971
00:52:00.210 --> 00:52:02.510
see it's not like they're not going to play a
972
00:52:02.510 --> 00:52:05.349
lot of minutes. They start some of the games. So
973
00:52:06.030 --> 00:52:08.889
I think that you can find the right piece there.
974
00:52:09.690 --> 00:52:18.010
I'm not Benjamin Meyer yet. I'm not there. And I
975
00:52:18.070 --> 00:52:20.239
say this all the time. He does so much well.
976
00:52:21.460 --> 00:52:24.980
It's just not what the Devils paid him for. They
977
00:52:25.019 --> 00:52:31.380
didn't pay him to be Ryan Reeves. A nicer version
978
00:52:31.400 --> 00:52:36.110
of Ryan Reeves. They paid him to score 40 goals.
979
00:52:37.760 --> 00:52:39.989
But if he was making $ 3 million, I think he'd
980
00:52:40.050 --> 00:52:40.949
be a fan favorite.
981
00:52:41.250 --> 00:52:41.849
You know what I mean?
982
00:52:41.889 --> 00:52:45.570
Like, it's just the contract's really weighing down his... And
983
00:52:45.590 --> 00:52:49.489
I think it's putting pressure on himself, too. So, I
984
00:52:49.530 --> 00:52:54.239
am benching Lombardi for a game. And then if the
985
00:52:54.280 --> 00:52:57.800
chemistry continues with that third line, you have a harder
986
00:52:57.820 --> 00:53:00.800
decision to make. If it was like a one-game thing
987
00:53:00.840 --> 00:53:02.760
and it just did well against Detroit, then your decision's
988
00:53:02.800 --> 00:53:05.230
much easier and you can sit Nason again.
989
00:53:05.530 --> 00:53:05.929
And remember.
990
00:53:06.440 --> 00:53:12.380
The devils could send Mason to the HL whenever they want. They,
991
00:53:12.480 --> 00:53:15.889
they can do it at any, well, sorry for the next,
992
00:53:15.929 --> 00:53:20.969
I think 25 days, they do whenever they want. Um,
993
00:53:22.510 --> 00:53:26.690
cause he's, he's not eligible for waivers until 30 days
994
00:53:26.769 --> 00:53:29.489
since he was put on waivers. So you can kind
995
00:53:29.550 --> 00:53:33.059
of play around with your rosters a little bit. Um,
996
00:53:33.610 --> 00:53:35.250
Every time they send him down, I think they have
997
00:53:35.289 --> 00:53:36.190
to play him in the game.
998
00:53:36.409 --> 00:53:37.550
I think that's a rule.
999
00:53:38.269 --> 00:53:45.300
But besides that, I think, you know, you don't have
1000
00:53:45.320 --> 00:53:47.019
to worry about it until Connor Brown comes back. But
1001
00:53:47.059 --> 00:53:50.000
if Connor Brown's ready in a week, you could still
1002
00:53:50.059 --> 00:53:52.840
send Mason down without risk of losing him.
1003
00:53:56.840 --> 00:54:00.829
Okay. Yeah, I would agree.
1004
00:54:01.510 --> 00:54:02.010
I would agree.
1005
00:54:02.150 --> 00:54:07.619
I mean, I would... First off, I didn't say that
1006
00:54:07.699 --> 00:54:11.519
to bench Meyer. I just asked what your thoughts on Meyer.
1007
00:54:12.539 --> 00:54:15.099
But I would... If I was going to pull somebody
1008
00:54:15.239 --> 00:54:18.199
out for that game, it would be Lombardi. And the
1009
00:54:18.239 --> 00:54:22.599
reason why... This is Devil's Rangers. It's Devil's Rangers. And
1010
00:54:22.840 --> 00:54:26.360
you've got plenty of these in the next couple months.
1011
00:54:26.840 --> 00:54:29.789
So you can... You don't have to wait long the
1012
00:54:29.829 --> 00:54:34.289
next go-around to play against the Rangers. But The first
1013
00:54:34.389 --> 00:54:37.550
one you got to get, it's weird how the NHL
1014
00:54:37.590 --> 00:54:42.050
did the scheduling last season. Again, in the year 2026,
1015
00:54:42.050 --> 00:54:47.059
calendar year 2026, they played the Rangers three times, right?
1016
00:54:47.400 --> 00:54:49.739
Last season. And then they're going to play how many?
1017
00:54:49.840 --> 00:54:54.860
Four times in three months. So in the calendar year,
1018
00:54:54.900 --> 00:54:58.519
you're going to play seven times against the New York Rangers.
1019
00:54:59.670 --> 00:55:01.269
I think they have one next year, so I think
1020
00:55:01.289 --> 00:55:03.510
it's three times in the calendar year. I think they
1021
00:55:03.530 --> 00:55:04.789
play two twice in December.
1022
00:55:07.179 --> 00:55:10.380
I thought it was all done by December. I thought
1023
00:55:10.400 --> 00:55:14.480
they played four games against the Rangers.
1024
00:55:17.539 --> 00:55:18.599
I'm trying to find it.
1025
00:55:18.880 --> 00:55:21.750
Yeah, that's the other gripe I have is the Devils
1026
00:55:21.989 --> 00:55:24.510
app trying to get the schedule. Like, don't they have
1027
00:55:24.530 --> 00:55:27.070
a full schedule? I only get, like, all the home games.
1028
00:55:27.570 --> 00:55:29.889
Like... Oh, you're right.
1029
00:55:29.909 --> 00:55:30.150
It is.
1030
00:55:30.190 --> 00:55:34.909
They're all in December. It's 3 December. I wrote about it.
1031
00:55:34.920 --> 00:55:36.559
I just forgot. I thought there was one in January.
1032
00:55:36.800 --> 00:55:37.940
No, no, no, no.
1033
00:55:38.039 --> 00:55:41.860
It's the 7th.
1034
00:55:43.139 --> 00:55:47.519
It's Monday, Tuesday, Tuesday, and then this one's on Thursday.
1035
00:55:47.559 --> 00:55:50.110
There's no Saturday Night Devils Rangers game.
1036
00:55:51.269 --> 00:55:55.630
What is this league? No Friday night or Saturday night
1037
00:55:55.650 --> 00:55:56.550
Devils Rangers game.
1038
00:55:57.719 --> 00:56:00.900
Or even any Friday night games with the Devils. I mean,
1039
00:56:00.920 --> 00:56:04.969
there's only a couple. You know, it's just a little
1040
00:56:04.989 --> 00:56:05.610
weird this year.
1041
00:56:05.949 --> 00:56:08.010
The only reason I like that, Sam, is usually they
1042
00:56:08.030 --> 00:56:10.449
pair a Wednesday night game with a Friday night game.
1043
00:56:13.909 --> 00:56:15.909
Oh, for programming purposes?
1044
00:56:16.489 --> 00:56:17.230
Yeah, for us.
1045
00:56:17.809 --> 00:56:21.630
Okay. Well, maybe that's why they did it. AI schedule
1046
00:56:21.690 --> 00:56:24.650
is like, no. State of the Fan Address needs to
1047
00:56:24.690 --> 00:56:26.690
go on. We're going to have to limit that.
1048
00:56:27.230 --> 00:56:32.239
Yeah. But let's do some plugs. Yep. You ready?
1049
00:56:32.340 --> 00:56:33.860
Yep.
1050
00:56:34.099 --> 00:56:38.619
We might have a special. Can I plug this?
1051
00:56:39.460 --> 00:56:41.179
Yeah, you can plug it, but we're going to need
1052
00:56:41.199 --> 00:56:43.809
the details after the podcast.
1053
00:56:44.730 --> 00:56:49.010
Well, let's just say we might have a weekend special
1054
00:56:49.610 --> 00:56:52.820
State of the Fan Address on Friday. We're working out
1055
00:56:52.860 --> 00:56:56.869
the details. The final details. But I think we're confirmed.
1056
00:56:56.929 --> 00:56:58.449
I think, you know, it's going to be a quickie.
1057
00:56:58.489 --> 00:57:01.630
Just a 30-minute, John. Just to get you getting into
1058
00:57:01.670 --> 00:57:03.969
the weekend. And, you know, but we want to recap
1059
00:57:04.010 --> 00:57:09.329
the Devils-Rangers game. And we're talking with a very prominent guest.
1060
00:57:10.710 --> 00:57:14.610
You know, so everybody tune into that on Friday when
1061
00:57:15.369 --> 00:57:18.639
we get it. Timing, again, we're working out the timing,
1062
00:57:18.679 --> 00:57:20.960
but we got some confirmations that are done.
1063
00:57:21.639 --> 00:57:26.190
We should be good. But Besides that, go to pucksandpitchworks.com.
1064
00:57:26.309 --> 00:57:28.809
I just wrote about Amadeus Lombardi, why I think he
1065
00:57:28.829 --> 00:57:29.889
should be the next guy to sit.
1066
00:57:30.449 --> 00:57:31.739
I just talked about, or.
1067
00:57:33.500 --> 00:57:36.219
Damian just wrote about how Jack Hughes is the key
1068
00:57:36.280 --> 00:57:38.119
to the Devils beating the Rangers.
1069
00:57:37.719 --> 00:57:39.840
Because he just takes it up a notch against this team.
1070
00:57:40.820 --> 00:57:43.480
We got JP Gambates is going to talk about whether
1071
00:57:43.519 --> 00:57:45.980
Jack Hughes is the greatest three versus three player of
1072
00:57:46.019 --> 00:57:50.329
all time. I wrote about the Devils game last night.
1073
00:57:51.730 --> 00:57:53.929
I have another one that's coming up. It's going to
1074
00:57:53.949 --> 00:57:56.389
be coming out today or tomorrow morning.
1075
00:57:56.469 --> 00:58:01.250
One of those two. We got a couple.
1076
00:58:01.269 --> 00:58:04.610
Oh, we got Luke Garrison talked about if it's panic
1077
00:58:04.650 --> 00:58:07.630
time yet after the Devils lost to.
1078
00:58:10.750 --> 00:58:14.070
The Senators. Charlie Borges Jr.
1079
00:58:14.090 --> 00:58:15.989
Talked about the Devils inability to score first. We got
1080
00:58:16.030 --> 00:58:18.550
everything covered. Pucks and Pitchforks.com.
1081
00:58:18.630 --> 00:58:24.300
Go over there. You're going to have some great times. Wonderful.
1082
00:58:24.739 --> 00:58:28.340
Wonderful. Well, we hope to have the big stage tomorrow
1083
00:58:29.239 --> 00:58:34.260
for Game Day Live outside of American Whiskey. As far
1084
00:58:34.300 --> 00:58:38.820
as I know, they figured out this whole permit thing,
1085
00:58:39.320 --> 00:58:42.199
all that. But if not, we'll be on the third floor. So,
1086
00:58:42.480 --> 00:58:45.039
you know, again, I don't want to jinx it, but
1087
00:58:45.079 --> 00:58:48.980
it should be a great Devil's Rangers game. tomorrow um
1088
00:58:49.019 --> 00:58:51.059
so i'll be at american whiskey for game day live
1089
00:58:51.340 --> 00:58:55.630
and devils after dark and um yeah that's all i
1090
00:58:55.619 --> 00:58:57.380
got nick that's all i.
1091
00:58:57.340 --> 00:59:03.269
Got love that yeah gonna be great game that was
1092
00:59:03.349 --> 00:59:04.269
rangers baby.
1093
00:59:04.650 --> 00:59:09.090
Yeah absolutely i'm going to hit the music. All right. Well,
1094
00:59:09.389 --> 00:59:13.110
I want to thank all those tuning in. Drop in
1095
00:59:13.130 --> 00:59:20.110
the podcast at midnight. Go to pucksandpitchforks.com. Read the articles.
1096
00:59:21.610 --> 00:59:24.889
Thank you to CJ for coming on to the podcast.
1097
00:59:25.889 --> 00:59:32.329
And also set your alerts. Possibly on Friday. But you
1098
00:59:32.369 --> 00:59:33.909
and I are going to talk a little bit off
1099
00:59:33.969 --> 00:59:38.239
air how this is going to work. Anyway, until next time,
1100
00:59:38.940 --> 00:59:40.239
let's go Devils.
1
00:00:00.700 --> 00:00:01.659
So so.
2
00:00:26.010 --> 00:00:30.390
Happy Devils Wednesday. This is the State of the Fan Address,
3
00:00:31.390 --> 00:00:38.729
episode 369, titled Evaluating the Devils. I'm your host, Sam Wu,
4
00:00:38.789 --> 00:00:46.979
here with PucksandPitchforks.com, Editor-in-Chief Nick Villano, as we're streaming live
5
00:00:47.049 --> 00:00:52.359
on Facebook Live, YouTube Live, X Live, Twitch, and now
6
00:00:52.460 --> 00:00:58.100
on Instagram Live on The Let's Go Devils Network. Got
7
00:00:58.119 --> 00:01:03.570
a special guest coming up in a few minutes. Talking analytics.
8
00:01:04.989 --> 00:01:13.680
CJ Tortoro. Coming on this program live, live. As, yeah,
9
00:01:13.739 --> 00:01:17.120
I'm still recovering from last night, Nick. Because that event
10
00:01:17.159 --> 00:01:21.540
that we had just was so much fun to have
11
00:01:21.620 --> 00:01:29.290
Ken Danico on. Grant Marshall, Bruce Driver, and Jim Doubt.
12
00:01:30.489 --> 00:01:32.629
Who we got in his number? Check those interviews, right?
13
00:01:32.670 --> 00:01:33.890
Those interviews are up on the feed.
14
00:01:34.810 --> 00:01:37.959
Oh, yeah. Yeah, they're all over the place. Audio version,
15
00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:42.219
Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music Prime, Audible, and
16
00:01:42.500 --> 00:01:47.340
iHeart app. You can, you know, go on YouTube, Atlas
17
00:01:47.359 --> 00:01:51.290
Good Devils. You can go on Facebook, Twitch, Instagram, Atlas
18
00:01:51.489 --> 00:01:55.030
Good Devils Podcast, and on iTunes. X at let's go
19
00:01:55.049 --> 00:02:00.079
to old pod. You know, it's been good. It's been good. And, uh,
20
00:02:00.140 --> 00:02:02.159
and I, and I've kept up with my trolling today,
21
00:02:02.200 --> 00:02:05.180
but I think I'm going to temper it down because
22
00:02:05.219 --> 00:02:07.739
let me tell you something. You got devil's Rangers tomorrow.
23
00:02:07.819 --> 00:02:10.240
So it got, it got hot today, Sam.
24
00:02:10.319 --> 00:02:12.919
It got hot today. Happy birthday to Quinn Hughes.
25
00:02:13.460 --> 00:02:13.860
That's all.
26
00:02:13.900 --> 00:02:14.280
Yeah.
27
00:02:14.360 --> 00:02:14.879
It got hot.
28
00:02:14.960 --> 00:02:17.439
It got only for Quinn's birthday. That's just the one
29
00:02:17.479 --> 00:02:18.039
time thing.
30
00:02:19.060 --> 00:02:26.780
Yeah. Here's the thing. Yeah. So, uh, I like that
31
00:02:26.800 --> 00:02:27.919
we have games faster.
32
00:02:28.460 --> 00:02:31.300
Because when Devils fans have too much time on their hands,
33
00:02:31.479 --> 00:02:34.719
it gets to a really negative place. And just the
34
00:02:34.800 --> 00:02:40.400
social media has been really, really ugly. And, you know, CJ,
35
00:02:40.979 --> 00:02:44.669
who's coming on in a couple minutes, reminds everybody that
36
00:02:44.710 --> 00:02:46.439
that 2022-23 New Jersey Devils team started the season 3-3.
37
00:02:46.430 --> 00:02:46.629
So....
38
00:02:52.990 --> 00:02:57.789
You know, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.
39
00:02:58.849 --> 00:03:02.669
Don't give up on this team just because goaltending doesn't
40
00:03:02.689 --> 00:03:04.810
look great. And I'm not going to pretend that it does.
41
00:03:04.870 --> 00:03:08.490
Goaltending looks bad. Nico Dawes doesn't look good. Jake Allen
42
00:03:08.509 --> 00:03:14.069
doesn't look good. Jake Allen did have some timely saves
43
00:03:14.090 --> 00:03:17.280
last night, but he didn't look good. Like, nobody's going
44
00:03:17.300 --> 00:03:19.819
to pretend he looked good. I want him to have
45
00:03:19.860 --> 00:03:26.780
the first one. I wanted him to have the.
46
00:03:25.719 --> 00:03:27.800
Third one, I think. I can't remember.
47
00:03:27.840 --> 00:03:30.919
I'm trying to remember in my head. You have to
48
00:03:31.039 --> 00:03:34.990
take the wins here. Only the Carolina Hurricanes in the
49
00:03:35.030 --> 00:03:38.129
entire league have a better.
50
00:03:40.629 --> 00:03:45.969
5v5 shot differential. That's the word I'm looking for.
51
00:03:46.349 --> 00:03:49.530
Only the Carolina Hurricanes have a better shot differential than
52
00:03:49.969 --> 00:03:53.969
at five versus five than the New Jersey Devils. But
53
00:03:54.009 --> 00:03:57.840
New Jersey Devils last year had the worst 5v5 shooting
54
00:03:57.879 --> 00:04:01.439
percentage in the league. And if they had that same
55
00:04:01.500 --> 00:04:04.000
shooting percentage this year, they'd have three more goals at
56
00:04:04.039 --> 00:04:09.740
even strength. If they had even a median middle-of-the-pack shooting percentage, Sam,
57
00:04:10.099 --> 00:04:12.620
they'd have eight more goals than they do right now.
58
00:04:14.159 --> 00:04:16.699
I understand that this was a problem last year and
59
00:04:16.720 --> 00:04:19.779
it's a problem again this year. And you want to
60
00:04:19.839 --> 00:04:24.980
look at patterns. But shooting percentage is a very unsustainable
61
00:04:25.079 --> 00:04:31.310
stat to just have this volatile. Especially with great shooters
62
00:04:31.370 --> 00:04:36.389
on the team like Hughes and.
63
00:04:39.399 --> 00:04:41.459
I want to say Meyer, but he isn't that great
64
00:04:41.500 --> 00:04:43.180
with the devil. But you have guys who can shoot.
65
00:04:44.360 --> 00:04:47.040
You have guys who really make plays. You're going to
66
00:04:47.079 --> 00:04:49.209
put people in scoring chance. And again, I think their
67
00:04:49.230 --> 00:04:51.550
shooting percentage is always going to be low. Just because
68
00:04:51.810 --> 00:04:55.250
this Sheldon Keefe system is volume over anything.
69
00:04:56.290 --> 00:04:58.910
But if they just.
70
00:04:58.730 --> 00:05:03.879
Start working a little bit more on shot placement. Like
71
00:05:03.959 --> 00:05:06.779
hitting the corners. Trying to be a little bit more
72
00:05:06.819 --> 00:05:09.860
on the edges. There is a little bit too many.
73
00:05:09.899 --> 00:05:10.779
And ironically.
74
00:05:11.480 --> 00:05:14.040
Nico, he sure hit John Gibson in the chest and
75
00:05:14.079 --> 00:05:16.160
scored a goal because it went in between his pads
76
00:05:16.180 --> 00:05:18.360
and went underneath them. So it did work out, but
77
00:05:18.379 --> 00:05:20.699
you got to stop hitting guys in the chest, in
78
00:05:20.730 --> 00:05:26.009
the pads. I do see like, again, Gibson made two
79
00:05:26.569 --> 00:05:30.569
spectacular saves and the devils missed three open nets. The
80
00:05:30.670 --> 00:05:33.889
theoretically the devils could have scored nine goals last night.
81
00:05:34.910 --> 00:05:38.209
Just for Brett missed two open nets and just for
82
00:05:38.250 --> 00:05:39.870
broke was missed an open net and grits.
83
00:05:39.910 --> 00:05:40.550
It got robbed.
84
00:05:40.569 --> 00:05:43.730
And I think, Nico got robbed. I think it was Nico.
85
00:05:43.810 --> 00:05:49.310
So last night should have been better. The luck hasn't
86
00:05:49.350 --> 00:05:51.889
been there and nobody wants to hear it. So why
87
00:05:51.910 --> 00:05:54.550
don't we bring on our analytics guy? Let's, let's bring
88
00:05:54.629 --> 00:05:58.670
on our, a guy who knows the numbers and knows
89
00:05:58.689 --> 00:06:01.189
what we're looking at. Can we invite our guest on Sam?
90
00:06:01.629 --> 00:06:03.329
I love it when we have smart people on the
91
00:06:03.360 --> 00:06:10.699
podcast because this stuff like CJ, uh, uh, Kevin Cavanaugh, the, uh,
92
00:06:11.300 --> 00:06:15.129
Bryce Salvador, all these guys. I learned a thing or two.
93
00:06:15.889 --> 00:06:19.189
Please welcome on the podcast, CJ Tortoro, good friend of
94
00:06:19.209 --> 00:06:24.930
the podcast. You can find him on X at CJTDevil. CJ,
95
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welcome to the podcast. Oh, I guess he doesn't see us.
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Are you muted, CJ, or I can't hear you?
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He's not muted. Maybe he doesn't have us right now. Oh,
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I think he said something. Let me just check one thing.
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Let me check one thing on our end. Let's try
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it again. Let's see.
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CJ, can you hear us?
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I see levels, but we don't hear them. That's not good.
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That's interesting.
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Is it the same channel? Same video channel and audio channel?
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Yeah, I'm going to investigate that, Nick. Just give me
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one second. I just want to make sure that he's
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getting the right feeds. No, he is getting all the
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right feeds. I don't know why. But let's try it again.
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CJ, are you there?
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No, we don't have him. But I do see levels, though.
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It's weird. Like, I see.
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Right, it seems like it's an us problem, Sam.
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No, but hold on a sec here. Check the feed.
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Give us one second, CJ.
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Everything's fine. I just think he's muted.
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How is he muted if we're getting levels?
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But CJ, say something because I see levels, but I
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don't see him going up. No, it's not going up.
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So that's weird. It might be from another microphone that hit.
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I have no idea. I don't want to do tech
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talk while we're on live air. Hold on a sec.
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Do we have his number? Maybe I should contact him.
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Let me see. Let me get his number real quick. Yeah.
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No, internet feed's good. Audio wise, video wise, everything's good.
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It's just, it's just not like I see levels, but
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it's not like anytime he talks, it doesn't go up.
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So.
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So I don't know if it's– all right, let's try
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it now. I think he's on his phone right now.
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It's CJ Totoro, hockey analytics researcher. What's up, CJ?
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Can you guys hear me now?
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We can hear you now.
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Yeah.
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I'm on my phone, so I don't know why the
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laptop didn't work.
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Technology.
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No worries. We'll give you a second to get settled.
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We apologize for those technical difficulties, but we– We always
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got to pivot here. CJ, thanks for coming on. We
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always love having you on, but this one's a little
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bit special because you introduced Post Hockey, which is your
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new analytics platform. You're diving in. So I'm going to
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jump into that first because I'm really excited about this
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new platform.
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I always love....
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I'm somebody who likes to jump between Moneypuck and Micah's
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stuff and Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Tricks. So I
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love having kind of a comparison platform. Can you quickly
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tell us what was the inspiration to building Post Hockey?
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What caused you to build another analytics platform?
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Yeah, so the origin actually comes more so from my
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history as a blogger than as an analyst. You know,
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I've been, I started blogging uh, back when, you know, SBN,
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SBN had a vibrant platform, right? I, uh, I had
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been writing there, uh, starting, I think it's 15 years
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ago now. Um, and I had like, you know, my,
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my slant was an analytics slant. Um, but really I
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was just trying to tell stories about, you know, what,
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what was going on with me in my case, it
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was the devils in particular.
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Right.
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And a lot of times I thought that the at
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the time it was still a relatively young community, the
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analytics community. So I thought that a good way to
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tell some of those stories was with stats that people
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hadn't seen before. Right. And what I've kind of felt
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over the last, you know, maybe I would say five
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or so years is that, you know, that had been
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a new way to tell stories at the time and
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it kept developing for a little while. And then I
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feel like over the last maybe five to 10 years,
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those stories kind of stalled out a little bit, right?
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The analytic stories are very similar today from the analytic
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stories that we saw when I started writing 15 years ago, right?
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We've got that, you know, people don't care enough about
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the amount of the pace of the play, the shot attempts,
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which just developed into expected goals. On-ice metrics developed a
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little bit more into something called a wrap-em model, which
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adjusts the on-ice metrics. uh for the quality of the
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competition for the zone that you started in for the
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rest that you have for the venue whether you're home
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or away right for takes a bunch of those variables
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them together and says how much better did your on
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ice results show up than what you were expecting uh
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and then that feeds into what became uh one of
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the first widely used hockey war models um which started
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at a site called war on ice. Those guys got
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hired by teams really quickly. Then it went on to
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evolving hockey. Uh, and those guys are still running that site.
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Right.
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So a lot of those sites, you know, all these
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sites are great. I don't want any of this to
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be perceived as, you know, me saying that these guys
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aren't innovating. A lot of why we have the stuff
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that we have today is because natural stat trick is great. Uh,
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you know, evolving hockey is great. Uh, Micah over at
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hockey biz, uh, is probably one of the more innovative, uh,
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you know, voices in the community. I would say he
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does a lot of stuff that nobody really does. And then,
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you know, Jay Fresh and Pat Bacon over at HockeyStats
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have been, you know, have been running a mile a
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minute on catching up with some of that stuff lately.
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But I still felt like there was a gap in
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the storytelling, right? So let me just use war as
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an example or the Rapa models as an example. Like
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I said, they adjust for a bunch of circumstances, right?
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So they'll say, for instance, if you start in the
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defensive zone, it's a tougher shift.
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Right?
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The problem is that from my perspective, as the person
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trying to tell the story from like the bloggers perspective, right?
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Starting the defensive zone isn't as difficult for some players
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as it is for other players, but the way that
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a rapid model views it is in the aggregate. So
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it says in general, here's how much of a penalty
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you get for starting in the defensive zone, right? But
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if your skill is in zone exits, then you're not
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taking as big a hit as someone else, right? and
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quality of competition and the difficulty of shifts, all these
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kinds of things, right? There's a failure of nuance. It
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doesn't give people the opportunity to do more in-depth analysis
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because they're looking at a number that claims to have
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adjusted for all the things we might want to care about.
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And they're like, oh, we've already considered that. Well, how
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well have you considered it though? Have you really looked
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into if this player is doing this particular thing better
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or worse than what the rest of the league is doing?
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So the premise of the site post-hockey, post coming from
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Washington Post sort of vibe, there's sort of a periodical
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aspect to the CSS even. It's supposed to be that
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the spirit is that the communication of statistics comes from
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a collaboration between the communicators and the analysts. And so
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I wanted to give more tools that people didn't really
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have in the past in the community to talk about
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parts of the game that they might not have thought
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were able to be numericized. Yeah.
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And I think these are all great points because I think.
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There are still flaws in a lot of the statistics
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and we talk, we've talked about it.
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You and me have talked about.
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It on social media and in, in other avenues where it's,
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you know, X G's is kind of, you know, the
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catch all and it's flawed war, you know, jay fresh
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and patrick bacon.
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Have their their war model which i think is.
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It's it's an attempt for sure like it's to try
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to compare you know you're essentially just trying to compare
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players regardless of position regardless of of strengths and weaknesses
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you're trying to just put a number on everybody but
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it's just incredibly flawed just because i think My thought
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is that it's just really hard to do this.
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I would say they're blunt. That's the problem. It's not
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that they're flawed, but usage of it can be easily
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flawed because of how blunt they are. They are best
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used for macro analysis. If you want to say if
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these kinds of players are worth spending a lot of
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money on, it would be good to know what those
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kinds of players tend to be worth in general. But
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if you want to say... We just acquired this new guy.
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How much should he add to our goal differential? Well,
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there's a lot more questions than just how much did
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he add to the last team's goal differential. What's his
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role going to be, right? What is he going to
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be asked to do? Is he going to get power
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play time, right? What's his shift disparity going to be like, right?
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What is the scheme that he's coming into? You know,
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there's a lot of different questions. You can't just map
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that one number onto the new team, right?
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Yeah, you could kind of look at Timo Meier, right?
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Timo Meier's role with the Sharks is, very different from
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his role with the devils. And it's kind of turned
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that way in the counting stats. So yeah, no, you're
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totally right. And yeah, you're right. Flawed is such a
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negative word. So I apologize for using that. We've had
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Jay fresh on here. He's incredible mind as well. So
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it wasn't, wasn't trying to downplay his statistics. I use them,
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you know, all the time in my writing and he
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has great graphics. He does a great job of visualizing
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these statistics, but I just look at them and I
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just have trouble with, for example, and I think we
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talked about this, Timo Mayer had, I think, the third
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best individual XG last year. And I think essentially it's
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just like he's in a really good position. He gets
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the puck on a stick in that position a lot
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because it was him, maybe McDavid, and then Anders Lee.
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And I just wouldn't put the other two in the
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top 30 players in the league. But when you think
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of individual XG, I think that's a stat. Again, I
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think that Usage of how you present those stats, especially
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for bloggers and journalists, is so important. Let me ask
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you this. How do you want people to use your statistics?
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I want people to come to the site the same
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way that I would be going to analytic sites when
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I was a blogger, which is to look for things
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that they might not have been thinking about. So that
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could be that they already have an idea and they
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want to check to see if that idea is statistically supported.
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Or it could be that they're just kind of thumbing
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around and seeing if there's something surprising that they wouldn't
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have necessarily thought about. You know, like one of the
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earlier guys that was, you know, I hadn't even thought
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about making a website yet at the time when this
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idea had come to me. But when we acquired John
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Marino originally, Um, my, my statistical profile of him was
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that he was a modern defensive impact player who doesn't
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have the typical physical profile of a, you know, stay
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at home defenseman, you know, right. He's undersized, good skater, right. Like, uh,
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you know, good on the puck, but you know, can
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be easily manhandled at part, probably part of why he's
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not on the team anymore. Uh, so, uh, he had
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a way of preventing goals. through the usage of his,
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what might be considered offensive skills, right? Uh, so in particular,
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he is very good at retrieving dumps from the opposing
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team and turning those into possession exits, meaning that the
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other team dumped it, he grabbed the puck and now
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we've got the puck going the other way. The other
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team's possession has ended and now we've got some momentum
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and a chance at a rush opportunity, right? Uh, so
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that now, depending on how you frame that, that can
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seem like an offensive result. But fundamentally, the first thing
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that happens, he prevented the other team from getting attempts
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at net, right? And if you do that enough times
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over the course of a season, that's going to result
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in fewer goals against. And that's why, you know, him
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and Ryan Graves ended up being one of the best
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defensive units in the NHL. I think a lot of
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people probably would have incorrectly, in my opinion, given a
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lot of the defensive credit on that to Ryan Graves
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because he's the one that feels more like a stereotypical defender.
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But Marino actually has the skills that when leveraged in
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the appropriate way resulted in defensive impacts. And so this
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was one of the early inspirations for the badge structure
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that I have. So I have three different types of
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badges that I award players on the website. And those
335
00:19:37.059 --> 00:19:43.670
are badges for skills, roles, and outcomes. And I think
336
00:19:43.690 --> 00:19:46.460
that the nuance between those two things is often left
337
00:19:46.619 --> 00:19:50.599
out of the statistical conversation. Something like a warm that
338
00:19:50.619 --> 00:19:52.240
you break it down and you get the defensive war
339
00:19:52.359 --> 00:19:55.140
or the wrap-ums and you check out what their impact
340
00:19:55.180 --> 00:19:58.380
on expected goals against is, right? They'll say, you know,
341
00:19:58.660 --> 00:20:03.420
the result was that He prevented goals, so he is
342
00:20:03.460 --> 00:20:06.319
good defensively. And then you'll see the eye test people say,
343
00:20:06.579 --> 00:20:08.339
he gets manhandled in the crease all the time. What
344
00:20:08.359 --> 00:20:09.599
are you talking about? How can you say that that's
345
00:20:09.619 --> 00:20:12.349
someone that's good defensively? It's because they're not speaking the
346
00:20:12.380 --> 00:20:13.890
same language. So you need to be able to have
347
00:20:13.910 --> 00:20:17.809
the nuance of saying, well, it's not a stereotypically defensive skill,
348
00:20:17.910 --> 00:20:20.549
but the way that this scheme is using it, it's
349
00:20:20.609 --> 00:20:24.380
producing defensive results, right? And so that's the kind of
350
00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:26.259
thing that I hope people can come to the website
351
00:20:26.319 --> 00:20:29.029
and explore stuff that they might not have been able
352
00:20:29.049 --> 00:20:32.529
to get with the blunter measurements. You can probably try
353
00:20:32.549 --> 00:20:36.109
to find some way to explore the idea that you
354
00:20:36.130 --> 00:20:38.809
might have in some of the stats that we're offering
355
00:20:38.849 --> 00:20:40.450
somewhere here. There's a bunch of stats that we offer
356
00:20:40.470 --> 00:20:42.910
on this website that are, are not really offered at
357
00:20:42.950 --> 00:20:47.529
other websites. Um, and that's just because I'm, it's a
358
00:20:47.569 --> 00:20:50.660
quantity over quality thing, right? Like I I'm, I'm, I'm
359
00:20:50.740 --> 00:20:53.700
trying to give, uh, you know, there's, There's a bunch
360
00:20:53.740 --> 00:20:56.940
of things that I am creating models for that I
361
00:20:56.960 --> 00:20:59.119
need to make sure are repeatable. If I'm creating a model,
362
00:20:59.640 --> 00:21:04.920
then it's gone through the wood chipper. I've taken out
363
00:21:05.069 --> 00:21:07.130
everything that doesn't matter, left it with everything that does matter.
364
00:21:07.569 --> 00:21:09.809
But when I say quantity over quality, what I'm talking
365
00:21:09.829 --> 00:21:15.390
about is observed measurements. For our goalie page, I've got
366
00:21:15.529 --> 00:21:17.549
how many shots did he face from the left side?
367
00:21:17.630 --> 00:21:18.809
How many deflections did he face? How many.
368
00:21:21.380 --> 00:21:24.059
And then for the team page, I got how many
369
00:21:24.079 --> 00:21:27.829
minutes did they spend with an attacking purpose? There's just
370
00:21:28.089 --> 00:21:30.529
a bunch of different stuff that you can explore. And
371
00:21:30.569 --> 00:21:34.690
then I have the statistical methodology in there to adjust
372
00:21:34.750 --> 00:21:37.269
for it so that you can not be fooled by
373
00:21:37.309 --> 00:21:40.529
things like high sample size. For instance, my shift dashboard
374
00:21:40.569 --> 00:21:43.470
has a little toggle that you can... There's a technique
375
00:21:43.490 --> 00:21:47.109
called shrinking. And it means that for really small samples,
376
00:21:47.569 --> 00:21:50.769
you assume that it's going to come back towards the
377
00:21:50.809 --> 00:21:53.269
mean eventually. So if you hit this toggle, it will
378
00:21:53.289 --> 00:21:55.349
show you what would you expect that this kind of
379
00:21:55.470 --> 00:21:58.640
thing would produce on the whole season, right? So all
380
00:21:58.660 --> 00:22:00.900
of these things are not stuff that I saw on
381
00:22:01.059 --> 00:22:03.400
other websites a ton. They're things that I wish they
382
00:22:03.460 --> 00:22:06.240
existed when I was a blogger. And so I created
383
00:22:06.279 --> 00:22:09.299
a website that had it, right? And it was basically
384
00:22:09.319 --> 00:22:11.059
what I would have used. It's basically what I would
385
00:22:11.099 --> 00:22:12.799
have used if I was a blogger. And I was like, well,
386
00:22:12.819 --> 00:22:14.039
as long as I'm making it, I might as well
387
00:22:14.059 --> 00:22:14.779
give it to other people.
388
00:22:16.400 --> 00:22:19.180
What's... Do you have like an end game in mind?
389
00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:21.720
Like what's, what's the, where are you trying to, you know,
390
00:22:21.740 --> 00:22:27.769
I guess, where do you want this to go? Like,
391
00:22:27.829 --> 00:22:30.589
are you, are you trying to be the next, I don't,
392
00:22:30.650 --> 00:22:32.789
I don't, I don't even want to like answer for you. Like,
393
00:22:32.849 --> 00:22:36.490
is it, is it a means to a hockey career?
394
00:22:36.529 --> 00:22:39.130
Is it, is it just, you know, you just, it's
395
00:22:39.170 --> 00:22:41.369
a passion project. That's fun to do on the side
396
00:22:41.390 --> 00:22:44.069
of your desk. You know, what's, what's the, uh, means
397
00:22:44.089 --> 00:22:44.650
to the end here.
398
00:22:45.829 --> 00:22:46.690
Out of curiosity.
399
00:22:46.750 --> 00:22:50.190
Yeah. Right now, I'm trying to figure out what it is.
400
00:22:50.430 --> 00:22:52.930
You know what I mean? With anyone who starts out
401
00:22:52.990 --> 00:22:56.289
a website, yeah, I want to see how people are
402
00:22:56.349 --> 00:22:59.230
using it. I want to see what the... Sometimes I
403
00:22:59.230 --> 00:23:00.619
don't even know what kinds of people are going to
404
00:23:00.650 --> 00:23:03.759
be using it. Like I said, the principle is to
405
00:23:03.799 --> 00:23:08.579
help people tell stories. Obviously, my Twitter followership is going
406
00:23:08.599 --> 00:23:12.359
to have a lot of computer boys on it. I'm
407
00:23:12.380 --> 00:23:13.849
sure they're going to thumb around there just to.
408
00:23:15.940 --> 00:23:20.059
Figure out who has the highest X. Right. Um, but
409
00:23:20.579 --> 00:23:22.660
I also could see, you know, you know, I've been,
410
00:23:22.700 --> 00:23:25.200
I've been a few like hockey writers have reached out
411
00:23:25.220 --> 00:23:27.430
to me saying that they're, you know, they're really happy
412
00:23:27.450 --> 00:23:29.089
that they finally have somewhere to go that they can
413
00:23:29.109 --> 00:23:31.289
check this kind of thing. Um, that they don't have
414
00:23:31.309 --> 00:23:33.829
to be like, you know, paying proprietary, you know, money
415
00:23:33.869 --> 00:23:36.579
to get sports logic access, right. That they can finally
416
00:23:36.619 --> 00:23:39.359
have something like this, um, in the public.
417
00:23:39.440 --> 00:23:39.619
Right.
418
00:23:40.299 --> 00:23:43.069
Uh, so, uh, you know, In the near term, right
419
00:23:43.109 --> 00:23:45.299
now we're in beta testing. Everyone can get all the
420
00:23:45.339 --> 00:23:49.619
information for free. The only thing that you can't get
421
00:23:49.660 --> 00:23:53.420
for free right now is stuff that is from Corey Schneider, who,
422
00:23:53.880 --> 00:23:56.019
if people listening don't know, I'm not talking about the
423
00:23:56.079 --> 00:24:02.269
ex-Devils goalie. Corey Schneider is an individual man that tracks
424
00:24:02.690 --> 00:24:06.730
hundreds of NHL games a season and records zone entries,
425
00:24:06.789 --> 00:24:09.490
zone exits, shot assists, a whole bunch of stuff that's
426
00:24:09.529 --> 00:24:10.670
not in the NHL play-by-play.
427
00:24:11.200 --> 00:24:11.460
All right.
428
00:24:11.799 --> 00:24:14.880
Um, and he's great at what he does. Um, he's
429
00:24:14.980 --> 00:24:18.460
not a web designer. He's not a statistician. So I,
430
00:24:18.779 --> 00:24:20.559
it's not the first time I've worked with him. Um,
431
00:24:20.799 --> 00:24:22.920
but I've always felt like there needed to be a
432
00:24:22.920 --> 00:24:24.559
better way. Yeah.
433
00:24:24.740 --> 00:24:25.339
He's yeah.
434
00:24:25.579 --> 00:24:30.740
Phenomenal. Um, I've always felt like there needed to be. Yeah.
435
00:24:30.819 --> 00:24:31.980
It's kind of funny.
436
00:24:32.019 --> 00:24:34.920
You just reminded me of this story I had from,
437
00:24:34.940 --> 00:24:36.289
you know, cause I, you know, I do have a
438
00:24:36.589 --> 00:24:37.089
media pass.
439
00:24:37.170 --> 00:24:39.269
I do cover the, you know, the devil's games that
440
00:24:39.309 --> 00:24:40.150
I can get up to Newark.
441
00:24:40.809 --> 00:24:44.490
Um, But my seat is right in front of the
442
00:24:45.250 --> 00:24:48.990
statisticians who are behind me. And the way that they
443
00:24:49.049 --> 00:24:51.609
track stats that go to NHL.com is there's literally a
444
00:24:51.650 --> 00:24:53.990
guy watching the game and yelling and another guy writing
445
00:24:54.029 --> 00:24:57.150
it down. I was like, this is such a flawed system. Like,
446
00:24:57.190 --> 00:25:00.200
this is a– it's like takeaway by 28. It's like
447
00:25:00.279 --> 00:25:03.440
shot on goal by 28. Missed the net. And there's
448
00:25:03.480 --> 00:25:07.259
just a guy fiercely typing. I'm like, there's got to
449
00:25:07.279 --> 00:25:09.420
be a better way. And I see guys like you
450
00:25:09.480 --> 00:25:12.980
who are, like, trying to find a– and, like, credit
451
00:25:13.009 --> 00:25:15.269
to the NHL because the NHL edge stuff is great.
452
00:25:15.569 --> 00:25:16.730
Like, I love that stuff.
453
00:25:16.769 --> 00:25:19.210
That stuff has been kind of a game changer to
454
00:25:19.250 --> 00:25:23.509
see those types of analytics, like speed and shot location
455
00:25:23.529 --> 00:25:24.109
and things like that.
456
00:25:24.170 --> 00:25:25.569
But this stuff's great.
457
00:25:25.589 --> 00:25:27.970
And I love the badges because the badges are giving me, like,
458
00:25:28.829 --> 00:25:30.930
EA Sports vibes. And I don't love EA Sports, but
459
00:25:30.950 --> 00:25:34.099
I love the badges part. Like– to have kind of
460
00:25:34.160 --> 00:25:37.079
like a, who falls into this category and like, who's
461
00:25:37.119 --> 00:25:39.740
the surprising guy. And like, that's a story right there
462
00:25:39.779 --> 00:25:42.799
as a blogger myself, where you'd be like, Oh wow. Like,
463
00:25:43.720 --> 00:25:46.809
you know, Jack Hughes is an elite penalty killers.
464
00:25:46.829 --> 00:25:47.569
That's interesting.
465
00:25:47.609 --> 00:25:49.789
Like how, why is that? And then diving into the stats,
466
00:25:49.849 --> 00:25:51.849
I think that there's definitely a story there. I do,
467
00:25:51.910 --> 00:25:53.670
you know, we're kind of limited on time. So I
468
00:25:53.670 --> 00:25:55.390
want to make sure that we do get into devil's
469
00:25:55.430 --> 00:25:58.170
hockey and kind of your thoughts there. So before we
470
00:25:58.430 --> 00:26:01.269
get into that, is there any last things to like
471
00:26:01.309 --> 00:26:04.460
last sell pieces that you want, to do for post
472
00:26:04.480 --> 00:26:06.200
hockey to, to our audience?
473
00:26:07.660 --> 00:26:10.440
No, check out post hockey.com. There's a, I mean, there is,
474
00:26:10.549 --> 00:26:12.049
there is a payment thing on there. If you want
475
00:26:12.069 --> 00:26:14.049
to help me out, um, when I'm getting started here,
476
00:26:14.069 --> 00:26:16.769
you know, I do have server costs and stuff like that. Uh,
477
00:26:16.869 --> 00:26:19.190
so if anyone wants to help make sure that I
478
00:26:19.230 --> 00:26:22.470
can afford to handle the traffic and everything, um, you can,
479
00:26:22.569 --> 00:26:24.630
you can go give me some money over there. Uh,
480
00:26:24.690 --> 00:26:27.309
but like I said, everything other than Corey's stats are
481
00:26:27.450 --> 00:26:29.880
all free. And if you're already a Corey subscriber, then
482
00:26:29.910 --> 00:26:33.450
everything is free. for as long as we're beta testing.
483
00:26:33.630 --> 00:26:36.420
I expect to probably be at least through the calendar year.
484
00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:41.960
We'll see where things go January 1st. That's the plan
485
00:26:42.000 --> 00:26:43.980
right now. Check out posthockey.com.
486
00:26:45.079 --> 00:26:48.859
We love that. Let's talk about the Devils real quick. Obviously,
487
00:26:48.900 --> 00:26:49.680
the sky is falling.
488
00:26:49.940 --> 00:26:51.920
I don't know if you've noticed, but the sky is falling.
489
00:26:52.680 --> 00:26:56.490
We've lost every game. The team is terrible. I think
490
00:26:56.509 --> 00:26:59.609
we rehired Tom Fitzgerald, but this time as first-line center.
491
00:27:00.170 --> 00:27:02.069
So I think, like, that's just kind of where.
492
00:27:02.150 --> 00:27:07.430
No. I think there's an interesting.
493
00:27:07.069 --> 00:27:09.380
Dichotomy right now between the eye test community and the
494
00:27:09.410 --> 00:27:13.000
analytics community, specifically about the Devils season. Because I think, analytically,
495
00:27:13.019 --> 00:27:16.400
they've been superb. When you see them on the ice,
496
00:27:16.859 --> 00:27:19.079
they've looked... I don't want to say terrible, but average,
497
00:27:19.299 --> 00:27:23.119
I'll say. What's your analysis, like, so far coming into
498
00:27:23.160 --> 00:27:25.380
the season? I shared the stat that you shared about
499
00:27:25.420 --> 00:27:26.210
how the Devils are 3-3 in 22-23.
500
00:27:26.200 --> 00:27:26.279
Okay.
501
00:27:28.099 --> 00:27:30.200
And then their XG was off the charts, and it
502
00:27:30.299 --> 00:27:32.400
kind of is falling to that same block this year.
503
00:27:32.769 --> 00:27:35.450
What's your analysis, you know, seeing this team for six games?
504
00:27:37.490 --> 00:27:39.769
Yeah, I think that the amount of, you know, the
505
00:27:39.789 --> 00:27:44.190
amount of new pieces makes it so that there's a
506
00:27:44.349 --> 00:27:47.390
few elements that make the jury still out. I had
507
00:27:47.450 --> 00:27:51.759
concerns about the team entering the season on the defensive
508
00:27:51.859 --> 00:27:55.460
end and on the goaltending end, right? You know, not
509
00:27:55.480 --> 00:27:58.410
that I thought Markstrom was... you know, particularly good and
510
00:27:58.430 --> 00:28:01.380
certainly not worth the contract, especially when we have Jake Allen,
511
00:28:01.420 --> 00:28:05.099
who was more efficient and for much cheaper. Right. But,
512
00:28:05.319 --> 00:28:09.420
you know, Nico Dawes was relatively unproven. So I didn't
513
00:28:09.460 --> 00:28:10.880
know how that would hold up over the course of
514
00:28:10.940 --> 00:28:14.589
a whole season. And I've been critical of this defensive
515
00:28:14.650 --> 00:28:18.289
core pretty much since the end of the Damon Severson era,
516
00:28:19.549 --> 00:28:25.000
because we, we pivoted to just such a, a defense
517
00:28:25.339 --> 00:28:29.150
centered position. defensive core which is a very traditional view
518
00:28:29.230 --> 00:28:31.490
of how to defend like i mentioned marino as like
519
00:28:31.529 --> 00:28:33.730
my uh as an example of one of the guys
520
00:28:33.750 --> 00:28:36.609
that i like to uh that that motivated the you
521
00:28:36.730 --> 00:28:39.650
know the badge system on my website um oh he
522
00:28:39.670 --> 00:28:42.269
had i forgot to close that circle he has the
523
00:28:42.289 --> 00:28:45.029
boomerang badge which is you retrieve a dump and then
524
00:28:45.069 --> 00:28:47.470
you turn it into a possession exit i just remembered
525
00:28:47.529 --> 00:28:49.539
i forgot how to i i was that was why
526
00:28:49.579 --> 00:28:52.420
that was why i mentioned him for badges um but
527
00:28:52.440 --> 00:28:58.000
yeah so now we have we have a relatively immobile, uh,
528
00:28:58.220 --> 00:29:02.259
defensive core. Um, if, if Luke isn't out there really,
529
00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:04.720
no one's a puck mover. Like Dougie is a very
530
00:29:04.740 --> 00:29:08.740
good offensive defenseman, but he's not a puck mover. Like
531
00:29:08.759 --> 00:29:12.259
he's not, he's not going coast to coast anytime. You
532
00:29:12.279 --> 00:29:14.549
know what I mean? So it makes it kind of
533
00:29:14.609 --> 00:29:17.869
tough to really play a cohesive five man game when
534
00:29:17.890 --> 00:29:20.900
we're out on the ice. Um, And so you need
535
00:29:21.000 --> 00:29:23.500
the you really need the forward line to be clicking
536
00:29:23.519 --> 00:29:25.420
with themselves very well. And when you have this many
537
00:29:25.460 --> 00:29:28.079
new faces, you're going to have some adjustment periods, right? Like,
538
00:29:28.400 --> 00:29:30.059
we really thought Anthony Manta was going to be the
539
00:29:30.119 --> 00:29:33.890
perfect fit alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, because he
540
00:29:34.630 --> 00:29:36.809
is the finisher, right? Like he's on my side, he's
541
00:29:36.849 --> 00:29:38.470
got a finishing badge, he was he had one of
542
00:29:38.490 --> 00:29:40.349
the highest finishing talents in the league last year. year
543
00:29:40.750 --> 00:29:42.630
right that's exactly the kind of thing that a line
544
00:29:42.670 --> 00:29:45.769
with two playmakers should want but i mean for the
545
00:29:45.809 --> 00:29:47.470
first couple games it kind of just looked like he
546
00:29:47.509 --> 00:29:49.359
was out there staring at them being like wow these
547
00:29:49.380 --> 00:29:50.069
guys are good.
548
00:29:50.930 --> 00:29:52.890
You know what i mean and he said that he
549
00:29:52.910 --> 00:29:55.440
said that i think yesterday right after the game he
550
00:29:55.460 --> 00:29:57.019
said They just go.
551
00:29:57.200 --> 00:29:59.019
He's like, they just play. And I'm just like trying
552
00:29:59.039 --> 00:30:00.619
to figure out where to go, man. Right.
553
00:30:00.640 --> 00:30:04.440
He's like, they're really hockey out there, aren't they?
554
00:30:04.660 --> 00:30:07.619
Right. Right. Yeah. He's like, they're going east west and
555
00:30:07.660 --> 00:30:09.789
I'm trying to go north. And I don't like he. Right.
556
00:30:09.869 --> 00:30:12.269
He seemed like, you know, we forget about the human
557
00:30:12.349 --> 00:30:14.990
element of like trying to, you know, we just try
558
00:30:15.009 --> 00:30:17.869
to put like pegs in the holes when these guys
559
00:30:17.930 --> 00:30:18.450
are just like.
560
00:30:19.349 --> 00:30:20.920
So, yeah, exactly.
561
00:30:20.960 --> 00:30:23.299
Yeah. So there's going to be some experimentations. I do
562
00:30:23.359 --> 00:30:25.640
think that there were things that Keefe still needs to
563
00:30:25.660 --> 00:30:27.299
learn about these guys, that these guys still need to
564
00:30:27.339 --> 00:30:29.240
learn about each other. But you saw an example of
565
00:30:29.279 --> 00:30:32.069
it last night where they put Gritsiuk up with them.
566
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:34.609
And that line feels like it clicked a little bit better.
567
00:30:34.789 --> 00:30:36.509
The fourth line felt kind of lost in the beginning
568
00:30:36.529 --> 00:30:38.970
of the year. But now those guys, I mean, Lombardi's
569
00:30:39.210 --> 00:30:42.869
penalty problems aside, right? Those guys, when they're clicking, they're
570
00:30:43.109 --> 00:30:46.309
really flying out there. And it looks different. It looks
571
00:30:46.329 --> 00:30:49.769
like what you really want a fourth line to look like.
572
00:30:50.150 --> 00:30:56.009
It's probably not a coincidence that we brought over Boakvist,
573
00:30:56.390 --> 00:31:00.299
who was that same kind of guy in Florida. I
574
00:31:00.319 --> 00:31:02.099
think that Sonny has an idea about what he might
575
00:31:02.160 --> 00:31:05.619
want a fourth line to look like. It's also not
576
00:31:05.640 --> 00:31:07.630
that dissimilar from what our fourth line looked like back
577
00:31:07.670 --> 00:31:09.029
in 2022-23 when we had the BMW guys that were
578
00:31:09.049 --> 00:31:09.210
the only.
579
00:31:12.019 --> 00:31:15.059
Curveball that we could throw in a lineup full of fastballs, right?
580
00:31:15.099 --> 00:31:17.700
Like they were the only cycling unit. And so sometimes
581
00:31:17.740 --> 00:31:19.480
they were the only ones that could get something done, right?
582
00:31:19.500 --> 00:31:21.220
In the playoffs, they actually saw that they were sometimes
583
00:31:21.240 --> 00:31:23.279
the only ones that could get stuff done. So you
584
00:31:23.299 --> 00:31:25.640
need to kind of experiment with some of these pieces.
585
00:31:26.000 --> 00:31:27.819
And I think that last night you saw what it
586
00:31:27.859 --> 00:31:32.740
would look like when, and sometimes when that clicks, the
587
00:31:32.789 --> 00:31:35.529
expected goals turn into actual goals, right? Expected goals are
588
00:31:35.549 --> 00:31:38.890
about where you can get in the ice mostly, right?
589
00:31:39.450 --> 00:31:42.410
But if you are not used to being in that spot,
590
00:31:42.779 --> 00:31:45.640
in that rhythm, then you might not convert at the
591
00:31:45.680 --> 00:31:48.740
rate you would expect to, right? But if you're always there,
592
00:31:48.759 --> 00:31:51.640
if you're always clicking and you're exactly where you're supposed
593
00:31:51.680 --> 00:31:53.420
to be, you know when the puck is coming to you,
594
00:31:53.680 --> 00:31:56.250
you've started pulling the stick back before the puck is
595
00:31:56.309 --> 00:31:58.829
even in front of you, now you can finish those
596
00:31:58.890 --> 00:32:02.490
expected goals, right? So I think that it's not surprising
597
00:32:02.569 --> 00:32:04.869
that early in a season with a lot of new faces,
598
00:32:04.910 --> 00:32:08.579
you saw a little bit of underachievement Uh, it's a
599
00:32:08.700 --> 00:32:12.740
lot of underachievement and that doesn't necessarily, sometimes people have
600
00:32:12.759 --> 00:32:16.240
this misconception that like automatically you'll regress to the mean
601
00:32:16.279 --> 00:32:18.880
they're like automatically the expected you'll, the goals will approach
602
00:32:18.920 --> 00:32:21.240
the expected goals. That's not always the case. We do
603
00:32:21.299 --> 00:32:22.940
see that happen over the course of the season, but
604
00:32:22.960 --> 00:32:27.200
a lot of times that's because the humans are making adjustments, right? The, the,
605
00:32:27.240 --> 00:32:29.859
the players are getting used to the system. The coaches
606
00:32:29.880 --> 00:32:32.630
are making changes to how they're running things. So it
607
00:32:32.670 --> 00:32:35.529
doesn't just happen. If nobody changed anything, it is very
608
00:32:35.589 --> 00:32:38.269
possible that you could continue to have massive underachievement. I
609
00:32:38.269 --> 00:32:39.509
don't know if it would be this size. We were
610
00:32:39.529 --> 00:32:44.660
underachieving by like 50%, which is, I think, on its face, unsustainable, right?
611
00:32:46.019 --> 00:32:48.259
But I do think that it's going to go, you know,
612
00:32:48.599 --> 00:32:50.799
the goal count is going to start to inch slowly
613
00:32:50.839 --> 00:32:53.220
and slow more and more towards the expected goal count
614
00:32:53.240 --> 00:32:54.980
for the Devils, especially as they get more used.
615
00:32:54.900 --> 00:32:55.279
To each other.
616
00:32:56.700 --> 00:33:03.650
Last question for you. Do you like... the devil's volume approach. Like,
617
00:33:04.650 --> 00:33:10.079
Jack Hughes taking 19 shot attempts. Right now, the only
618
00:33:10.140 --> 00:33:14.420
team who has a better shot differential, even on goal,
619
00:33:14.539 --> 00:33:17.200
just shots on goal, is the Carolina Hurricanes at 5v5.
620
00:33:17.299 --> 00:33:19.299
I don't know about power play and all that, but
621
00:33:19.440 --> 00:33:22.019
at 5v5, the only team that has a better shot
622
00:33:22.059 --> 00:33:23.940
differential in the league is Carolina.
623
00:33:24.029 --> 00:33:25.410
I think it's literally by one shot.
624
00:33:25.549 --> 00:33:29.329
It's like by two one-hundredths of a percentage point.
625
00:33:30.269 --> 00:33:32.730
Do you like that approach to hockey?
626
00:33:35.430 --> 00:33:37.029
So I think I'm going to borrow a page from
627
00:33:37.069 --> 00:33:38.809
Sonny's book here and say that I think it depends
628
00:33:38.910 --> 00:33:40.890
on your, you know, the tools that you have on
629
00:33:40.910 --> 00:33:44.150
your roster. Right. Like there there's there's teams that shouldn't
630
00:33:44.210 --> 00:33:48.019
be playing that game. There's teams that should be looking
631
00:33:48.099 --> 00:33:53.299
for the perfect opportunity for their skilled finishers. and there's
632
00:33:53.319 --> 00:33:56.180
teams that should be just cycling until you wear the
633
00:33:56.200 --> 00:34:00.180
team out and there's an open pass to the slot
634
00:34:00.220 --> 00:34:02.910
and then you can finish there, right? We're not those teams.
635
00:34:03.049 --> 00:34:05.029
So do I think that it's a good fit for
636
00:34:05.210 --> 00:34:08.929
our roster? I do. I think that there are some
637
00:34:08.989 --> 00:34:12.710
roles that we hadn't been using well. I think there
638
00:34:12.730 --> 00:34:15.070
were some gaps in the roles that we needed to
639
00:34:15.110 --> 00:34:18.840
be filled by a scheme like that. For instance, you know,
640
00:34:19.570 --> 00:34:22.000
you mentioned that, you know, we're volume based team. Jack
641
00:34:22.019 --> 00:34:23.679
is firing at the net from every direction.
642
00:34:23.719 --> 00:34:23.880
Right.
643
00:34:24.219 --> 00:34:26.300
So you have to think about what's a good player
644
00:34:26.380 --> 00:34:27.840
to play with a guy like that.
645
00:34:27.920 --> 00:34:28.039
Right.
646
00:34:28.079 --> 00:34:30.679
But people call Jack a playmaker and he is a playmaker,
647
00:34:30.980 --> 00:34:32.760
but sometimes it's a little bit different than the way
648
00:34:32.800 --> 00:34:33.380
people think.
649
00:34:33.480 --> 00:34:33.659
Right.
650
00:34:33.940 --> 00:34:35.900
He, he can get a lot of his assists come
651
00:34:35.920 --> 00:34:36.820
off of shots too.
652
00:34:37.380 --> 00:34:37.599
Right.
653
00:34:38.119 --> 00:34:39.320
Uh, not just passing.
654
00:34:39.440 --> 00:34:39.579
Right.
655
00:34:39.860 --> 00:34:41.610
He had, what did they say? It was like 19
656
00:34:41.610 --> 00:34:43.849
shot attempts. The other, the other game, right. He's looking
657
00:34:43.889 --> 00:34:47.530
to shoot. He's not by any means a pass first player.
658
00:34:47.989 --> 00:34:48.190
Right.
659
00:34:48.730 --> 00:34:52.090
Um, I do think that's just– not to cut you off,
660
00:34:52.110 --> 00:34:54.570
but I think that comes from his draft year. We
661
00:34:54.610 --> 00:34:56.429
thought he was going to be like a 100-point, like
662
00:34:56.449 --> 00:35:00.260
30-70 guy. We did not think he was going to
663
00:35:00.400 --> 00:35:01.360
be a 40-65 guy.
664
00:35:02.199 --> 00:35:05.440
He might be because, like I said, those shots produce rebounds,
665
00:35:05.480 --> 00:35:08.579
and those rebounds produce some of the highest conversion opportunities
666
00:35:09.099 --> 00:35:12.079
in hockey, right? Then you have to think, what is
667
00:35:12.119 --> 00:35:14.780
the kind of guy that plays well with someone like this? Well,
668
00:35:14.800 --> 00:35:16.989
you need someone fast and aggressive that can pick up
669
00:35:17.010 --> 00:35:20.110
the rebounds. And you need someone that is good in
670
00:35:20.150 --> 00:35:22.469
front of the net so that he can, uh, you know,
671
00:35:22.510 --> 00:35:25.510
he can screen. And if there's any loose garbage in front,
672
00:35:25.550 --> 00:35:27.690
then he'll get that for you. You know what I mean? So,
673
00:35:27.809 --> 00:35:29.110
but you know, an example of one of these guys
674
00:35:29.150 --> 00:35:31.050
was I said, I thought I'll always, I thought a
675
00:35:31.090 --> 00:35:32.329
good line made for him would be a guy like
676
00:35:32.369 --> 00:35:35.869
Brian rust. Right. Uh, who's great at all of those things.
677
00:35:36.150 --> 00:35:36.329
Right.
678
00:35:36.889 --> 00:35:40.739
Um, That's not saying that the acquisition might not have
679
00:35:40.800 --> 00:35:43.079
ever been feasible. I'm not saying that we should have
680
00:35:43.099 --> 00:35:44.860
gone out and got Brian Rust. I'm just saying that
681
00:35:45.139 --> 00:35:45.960
that prototype is.
682
00:35:45.980 --> 00:35:50.099
Nobody got Brian Rust, so clearly it was too expensive. Right, exactly.
683
00:35:50.400 --> 00:35:53.570
So I'm saying that that prototype of a player might
684
00:35:53.590 --> 00:35:56.570
have been a better fit than the Teemo or than
685
00:35:56.630 --> 00:35:57.230
the Manta.
686
00:35:57.489 --> 00:35:57.969
You know what I mean?
687
00:35:59.469 --> 00:36:01.309
Sometimes it doesn't work the way that you think it does,
688
00:36:01.550 --> 00:36:05.280
but there are ways to leverage the roster effectively. to
689
00:36:05.340 --> 00:36:09.199
play a highly successful volume-based game. And I think that
690
00:36:09.219 --> 00:36:11.039
Sonny had a little bit of a better hold on
691
00:36:11.079 --> 00:36:12.679
what that would look like than Fitzgerald did.
692
00:36:14.039 --> 00:36:14.440
Makes sense.
693
00:36:14.820 --> 00:36:18.000
All right, well, CJ, I really appreciate you coming on,
694
00:36:18.760 --> 00:36:21.519
telling us about analytics, teaching us a lot. We're going
695
00:36:21.539 --> 00:36:23.619
to have you on again as you get out of beta,
696
00:36:23.699 --> 00:36:26.760
as you learn more about post-hockeys. We want to promote
697
00:36:26.800 --> 00:36:31.150
this because we love a devil's person. I love Corey,
698
00:36:31.170 --> 00:36:33.909
but he's a Carolina guy. We don't need more of that.
699
00:36:34.030 --> 00:36:38.969
We need more Devils people doing Devils stats. Everybody go
700
00:36:39.010 --> 00:36:44.110
to Post Hockey. Give CJ all of your incremental income
701
00:36:44.159 --> 00:36:46.019
just to help him out so he can keep his
702
00:36:46.059 --> 00:36:49.739
servers running and everybody can get more of this Post
703
00:36:49.760 --> 00:36:50.679
Hockey goodness.
704
00:36:51.179 --> 00:36:53.659
CJ, we really appreciate you having me on. We'll have
705
00:36:53.679 --> 00:36:55.760
you on again soon. Thanks.
706
00:36:55.780 --> 00:36:57.960
I really appreciate you giving me the time, man. Always
707
00:36:57.980 --> 00:36:58.239
a pleasure.
708
00:36:59.460 --> 00:37:05.110
Thanks, CJ. That's CJ Turturro. You'll find him on X-Act,
709
00:37:05.570 --> 00:37:07.190
CJT Devil.
710
00:37:09.989 --> 00:37:10.909
I learned a lot.
711
00:37:11.289 --> 00:37:15.610
I was just digesting the entire time. I was just digesting.
712
00:37:17.429 --> 00:37:21.920
Very interesting that, you know, I like CJ because he's
713
00:37:21.960 --> 00:37:22.780
an analytical nut.
714
00:37:22.880 --> 00:37:25.260
Like, he loves analytics, but at the same time, like,
715
00:37:25.300 --> 00:37:32.969
he brings... into his analytics, right?
716
00:37:33.429 --> 00:37:36.010
And I think people, I think, you know, I think
717
00:37:36.110 --> 00:37:38.639
him doing this for so long, he said 15 years
718
00:37:38.679 --> 00:37:43.420
he's been doing this with analytics, you know, integrating it
719
00:37:43.500 --> 00:37:47.219
into his analysis and his writing and whatever he's working on.
720
00:37:48.800 --> 00:37:54.269
I think it goes to show how much he's learned because.
721
00:37:54.289 --> 00:37:58.000
And I think like, Damo Schism at The Athletic is
722
00:37:58.239 --> 00:38:00.579
a perfect example. Damo Schism, when he was first hired
723
00:38:00.599 --> 00:38:04.280
by The Athletic, was like, this is what my number says, and.
724
00:38:05.809 --> 00:38:06.630
This is what it is.
725
00:38:07.269 --> 00:38:09.449
But now if you see him kind of analyze his
726
00:38:09.489 --> 00:38:13.190
own numbers, he kind of finds where it makes the
727
00:38:13.230 --> 00:38:16.630
most sense and utilizes it in that way. I think
728
00:38:16.670 --> 00:38:18.650
CJ has been doing that for years. And CJ, I'm
729
00:38:18.789 --> 00:38:21.230
so happy that he's going on his own and doing
730
00:38:21.690 --> 00:38:22.510
his website because.
731
00:38:26.159 --> 00:38:28.380
You know me, Sam. I like analytics.
732
00:38:28.400 --> 00:38:31.739
Me and CJ were talking on the side about this
733
00:38:31.800 --> 00:38:36.289
where I will only use analytics in my work that
734
00:38:36.329 --> 00:38:39.809
I can explain to you in layman's terms. I will
735
00:38:40.429 --> 00:38:44.050
use XG to lead me to a story and then
736
00:38:44.070 --> 00:38:47.150
I'll use other stats to tell that story. Like the
737
00:38:47.170 --> 00:38:51.429
Timo Meier story where he led the league in individual XG.
738
00:38:51.469 --> 00:38:53.389
The only story I told about that is how interesting
739
00:38:53.409 --> 00:38:56.059
it was that he did lead in that stat Not
740
00:38:56.079 --> 00:38:58.420
that that stat told the story, but you find the
741
00:38:58.460 --> 00:39:02.420
story within that stat. I think CJ is trying to
742
00:39:02.599 --> 00:39:06.760
have the stat tell the story, which you need a
743
00:39:07.019 --> 00:39:08.639
certain level of logic.
744
00:39:08.260 --> 00:39:10.219
And understanding to do. So I think he's doing a
745
00:39:10.239 --> 00:39:10.880
great job of that.
746
00:39:12.480 --> 00:39:13.679
Yeah, definitely.
747
00:39:13.860 --> 00:39:19.039
That might've been word salad, Sam. I don't think that was, well, well.
748
00:39:19.059 --> 00:39:21.480
I, I reposted what he, what he, what he put
749
00:39:21.619 --> 00:39:28.030
out there about 2023. And, um, Because without saying, and
750
00:39:28.170 --> 00:39:29.929
that's why I keep on saying, the devils are the best.
751
00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:31.980
3-3 team in the NHL.
752
00:39:34.840 --> 00:39:35.239
I mean, I.
753
00:39:37.219 --> 00:39:39.739
Think Jack Hughes is the best 3-3 player in the
754
00:39:39.800 --> 00:39:40.610
history of the NHL.
755
00:39:42.269 --> 00:39:42.469
Ever.
756
00:39:44.190 --> 00:39:46.010
I was talking to J.B. Gambates, and he's going to
757
00:39:46.030 --> 00:39:47.789
write an article about this because I think it's important.
758
00:39:49.320 --> 00:39:50.389
There is one.
759
00:39:52.849 --> 00:39:58.889
Important men's game that went to 3-on-3. And Jack Hughes
760
00:39:58.949 --> 00:39:59.289
ended it.
761
00:40:03.309 --> 00:40:03.570
Right?
762
00:40:03.730 --> 00:40:08.440
Has there ever been a 3-on-3 game that's important? High leverage,
763
00:40:08.760 --> 00:40:10.360
actual something on the line.
764
00:40:12.179 --> 00:40:13.579
Not recent memory.
765
00:40:14.619 --> 00:40:19.340
I mean, the 3-on-3... The 3-on-3... It didn't really come
766
00:40:19.780 --> 00:40:22.019
about into fruition until recently.
767
00:40:22.039 --> 00:40:25.199
It was like 2016?
768
00:40:25.199 --> 00:40:28.039
Was that when they implemented it? 2018 when they implemented it?
769
00:40:28.059 --> 00:40:32.550
Something like that. Yeah, I mean, it was, remember, 4-on-4 overtime.
770
00:40:32.570 --> 00:40:37.010
But back in my day, it was 5-on-5, five minutes,
771
00:40:37.030 --> 00:40:42.489
and there were ties. But the 3-on-3, I mean, it's
772
00:40:42.530 --> 00:40:45.469
just a different game. And it fits Jack Hughes. I mean,
773
00:40:45.489 --> 00:40:48.329
it's wide open. I mean, sometimes I wonder if the
774
00:40:48.369 --> 00:40:50.699
Devils are on a five-on-three power play, if they should
775
00:40:50.739 --> 00:40:53.179
just take the two guys and let them sit the
776
00:40:53.239 --> 00:40:56.960
bench and let them play three-on-three. You know, sometimes I wonder,
777
00:40:57.880 --> 00:41:00.519
you know, about that. It'd be kind of funny. And
778
00:41:00.559 --> 00:41:02.599
then you have two forwards that would just sneak onto
779
00:41:02.639 --> 00:41:06.199
the ice when they're not expecting it, you know.
780
00:41:07.909 --> 00:41:08.849
What if you're allowed to do that?
781
00:41:09.289 --> 00:41:09.750
I don't know.
782
00:41:10.070 --> 00:41:11.590
I know the rule book pretty well, but I don't
783
00:41:11.630 --> 00:41:12.929
know about that specific rule.
784
00:41:13.309 --> 00:41:16.650
I know LaCroix can do that, but hockey. Yeah.
785
00:41:18.500 --> 00:41:20.360
Yeah, lacrosse is the only other sport that I can
786
00:41:20.380 --> 00:41:24.860
think of that has on-the-fly changes. Where you can have
787
00:41:24.920 --> 00:41:27.099
a guy just jump onto the field and jump off.
788
00:41:27.219 --> 00:41:30.960
But it's not as... Well, hockey can do that. That's
789
00:41:31.989 --> 00:41:32.389
what I'm saying.
790
00:41:32.409 --> 00:41:35.929
The only other sport I said. Oh, okay. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
791
00:41:35.989 --> 00:41:36.949
You can't do that in baseball.
792
00:41:37.269 --> 00:41:39.849
Aaron Judge can't just run off in the middle of
793
00:41:39.909 --> 00:41:41.590
the play and Trent Grisham comes off.
794
00:41:41.670 --> 00:41:42.309
Oh, God forbid.
795
00:41:42.969 --> 00:41:45.210
And basketball, you need a stoppage.
796
00:41:46.090 --> 00:41:48.530
Yeah, you need a stoppage in basketball, football, you need
797
00:41:48.570 --> 00:41:51.469
a stoppage, you know, play to play. So, and that was, I,
798
00:41:51.610 --> 00:41:53.329
you know, I wanted to get into so much other,
799
00:41:53.670 --> 00:41:55.630
so much more with CJ, but you know, we were just,
800
00:41:55.710 --> 00:41:58.780
we were just shooting the stuff and it got well,
801
00:41:58.800 --> 00:42:04.460
but I, I am curious how much of an impact
802
00:42:04.519 --> 00:42:08.400
the speed of the NHL has on analytics that, that
803
00:42:08.559 --> 00:42:12.440
say like, like basketball's big.
804
00:42:12.320 --> 00:42:19.219
Analytics is like, you know, PER. And then there's, like,
805
00:42:19.320 --> 00:42:21.739
point differential per 60.
806
00:42:21.739 --> 00:42:24.260
Like, if you took, like, a whole game, and then, like,
807
00:42:24.320 --> 00:42:26.260
what the point differential is for that player playing a
808
00:42:26.280 --> 00:42:29.139
whole game over the aggregate. Like, those are very, like,
809
00:42:29.340 --> 00:42:34.320
easy to understand stats. Baseball has some interesting ones, but
810
00:42:35.119 --> 00:42:38.550
outside of war, I can explain a baseball stat no
811
00:42:38.590 --> 00:42:43.849
matter what it is. And then football....
812
00:42:45.010 --> 00:42:45.460
You know, I.
813
00:42:46.050 --> 00:42:47.880
The one you can't explain is QBR. I have no
814
00:42:47.929 --> 00:42:50.840
idea what that is. And then there's some of the
815
00:42:50.900 --> 00:42:54.420
PFF stats, like the pro football focus stats that are
816
00:42:54.440 --> 00:42:57.059
a little like out there that you're like, again, like
817
00:42:57.500 --> 00:43:01.570
you need to be kind of have like a calculus
818
00:43:01.610 --> 00:43:05.090
degree just to kind of understand them. But when you
819
00:43:05.110 --> 00:43:06.869
look at like some of the other advanced analytics and
820
00:43:06.889 --> 00:43:10.760
like these sports, they don't really make sense. And hockey
821
00:43:10.800 --> 00:43:13.329
kind of have to like, I forgot who the coach was.
822
00:43:13.929 --> 00:43:16.849
Maybe it was Tockett or Hines. I don't remember exactly who,
823
00:43:16.869 --> 00:43:20.210
but he said he was talking about how he doesn't
824
00:43:20.610 --> 00:43:25.739
look at analytics for defensemen because there are a lot
825
00:43:25.760 --> 00:43:27.159
of the ones that you have to rely on are
826
00:43:27.400 --> 00:43:29.400
on ice stats, and there's just so much that goes
827
00:43:29.480 --> 00:43:36.219
into what's impacting a defenseman, right? It's zone starts. It's
828
00:43:37.079 --> 00:43:42.190
turnovers by the forwards. It's rebound control. You know, there's
829
00:43:42.210 --> 00:43:43.769
a lot of things that are outside of their control
830
00:43:44.789 --> 00:43:46.869
that are going to impact their stats in a negative way.
831
00:43:47.309 --> 00:43:49.630
And this is why I also like CJ's platform because,
832
00:43:49.650 --> 00:43:51.690
you know, he talked about the boomerang with John Marino.
833
00:43:52.730 --> 00:43:57.190
And I'm somebody who's like, I prioritize possession. And I
834
00:43:57.230 --> 00:44:01.070
think that's the one thing from the Lindy Ruff system
835
00:44:01.110 --> 00:44:03.329
that they really need to bring back. It's like possession
836
00:44:04.639 --> 00:44:06.929
is a gift and you need to treat it as such.
837
00:44:07.739 --> 00:44:12.760
And you don't just throw it away. To be fair,
838
00:44:12.800 --> 00:44:15.000
the Devils have been incredible at the dump and chase
839
00:44:15.039 --> 00:44:19.280
this year. They've been stupendous. I need to look at
840
00:44:19.320 --> 00:44:24.130
the statistic of how often they're having a positive outcome
841
00:44:24.190 --> 00:44:26.670
from the dump and chase. But they just seem to
842
00:44:26.949 --> 00:44:32.289
cause a lot of offensive zone turnovers. And I think
843
00:44:32.349 --> 00:44:37.800
it's a reason why I think it's going to turn.
844
00:44:37.840 --> 00:44:40.619
The goal scoring is going to turn. A, it's unsustainable
845
00:44:40.659 --> 00:44:42.900
how bad it's been, and CJ kind of touched on that.
846
00:44:43.760 --> 00:44:47.380
Their shooting percentage is at 5%. That's just not possible.
847
00:44:47.719 --> 00:44:51.679
Even Detroit and Chicago and these terrible teams are going
848
00:44:51.719 --> 00:44:52.199
to shoot.
849
00:44:52.019 --> 00:44:53.940
Better than 5%.
850
00:44:53.940 --> 00:44:58.719
You know, 7% is the doldrums. So I think the
851
00:44:58.760 --> 00:45:01.380
Devils are going to get their shooting percentage up around
852
00:45:01.380 --> 00:45:03.179
10% by the end of the season.
853
00:45:04.159 --> 00:45:12.110
And To CJ's point about the defenseman, I.
854
00:45:15.719 --> 00:45:19.500
Can't say that I remember if Kovacevic had any mistakes
855
00:45:19.539 --> 00:45:21.739
last night. I don't remember seeing any. I thought he
856
00:45:21.760 --> 00:45:27.300
played a pretty standard, decent game for him. I think
857
00:45:27.320 --> 00:45:30.159
Dougie Hamilton had kind of a rough game, and he
858
00:45:30.219 --> 00:45:32.909
touched on that where he's not the best at zone exits,
859
00:45:32.969 --> 00:45:33.889
and I really wish he.
860
00:45:33.869 --> 00:45:36.050
Would get a little bit better at that. I didn't
861
00:45:36.309 --> 00:45:39.489
love that they put Hamilton back with Siegenthaler.
862
00:45:39.570 --> 00:45:41.570
I thought they just didn't. They aren't having a good
863
00:45:41.610 --> 00:45:45.400
season together. I'd rather have Kovacevic and Siegenthaler as that
864
00:45:45.440 --> 00:45:48.980
shutdown line. And then Chisholm and Hamilton seem to have
865
00:45:49.019 --> 00:45:50.639
a little bit of chemistry, so why not just put
866
00:45:50.679 --> 00:45:51.119
them together?
867
00:45:52.820 --> 00:45:54.360
That's the one thing. I liked a lot of what
868
00:45:54.380 --> 00:45:56.860
Sheldon Keefe did with the line changes last night. I
869
00:45:56.900 --> 00:45:58.139
didn't like that, though. I didn't like what he did
870
00:45:58.159 --> 00:46:03.699
with the defense. Yeah.
871
00:46:07.679 --> 00:46:08.659
Were you asking me a question?
872
00:46:10.219 --> 00:46:12.559
I guess I'm curious. What did you think of the
873
00:46:12.599 --> 00:46:15.699
defensive changes he made? He changed the lines up. All
874
00:46:15.719 --> 00:46:18.539
he did was really keep Luke and Pesci. He took
875
00:46:18.579 --> 00:46:23.750
Dylan out, put Kovacevic in, but he put Kovacevic with Chisholm,
876
00:46:24.829 --> 00:46:27.349
which I don't like that pairing. I'd rather have Kovacevic
877
00:46:27.389 --> 00:46:30.989
with Siegenthaler, who had great chemistry, than Hamilton with Chisholm,
878
00:46:31.090 --> 00:46:32.690
who seemed to be building great chemistry.
879
00:46:34.110 --> 00:46:36.949
I wouldn't put too much stock in it, Nick. You're
880
00:46:36.989 --> 00:46:40.969
only six games in. It was Kovacevic's first game back.
881
00:46:43.530 --> 00:46:44.820
I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
882
00:46:46.219 --> 00:46:48.000
Were you on board with taking Dylan out?
883
00:46:48.699 --> 00:46:49.039
What's that?
884
00:46:49.980 --> 00:46:51.579
Were you on board with taking Dylan out?
885
00:46:53.940 --> 00:47:01.909
Well, not really. But, you know, again, I like what
886
00:47:01.949 --> 00:47:04.949
Sheldon's doing in terms of trying to mix it up.
887
00:47:05.760 --> 00:47:08.050
You know, you don't know until you try. I mean,
888
00:47:08.619 --> 00:47:11.170
the best way to, you can't just do it in practice.
889
00:47:11.190 --> 00:47:13.570
You got to do it in the game. And this
890
00:47:13.610 --> 00:47:17.530
early in the season, I, you know, I'm all for it.
891
00:47:19.429 --> 00:47:19.610
Yeah.
892
00:47:20.849 --> 00:47:23.150
Yeah, again, I'm not going to overthink it. I do
893
00:47:23.250 --> 00:47:25.989
love that Manta.
894
00:47:25.690 --> 00:47:30.210
Rodriguez-Nason line, and I'm going to tell you why. Because,
895
00:47:30.389 --> 00:47:32.090
and CJ brought up this point, and I kind of
896
00:47:32.110 --> 00:47:34.139
made a similar point on Twitter, but he talked about
897
00:47:34.159 --> 00:47:37.010
the BMW line. And how they were a change of
898
00:47:37.130 --> 00:47:39.530
pace for that 2022-23 team.
899
00:47:40.230 --> 00:47:40.449
Yeah.
900
00:47:42.849 --> 00:47:43.670
And I think that.
901
00:47:43.630 --> 00:47:49.710
Manta-Rodriguez-Nason line is that change of pace that throws a
902
00:47:49.750 --> 00:47:51.309
team off so bad.
903
00:47:51.989 --> 00:47:52.869
That they score.
904
00:47:52.889 --> 00:48:00.800
Because they're so used to speed, movement, rush hockey, that
905
00:48:00.840 --> 00:48:03.239
when you put a team that grinds the game to
906
00:48:03.300 --> 00:48:07.480
a halt while you're in that mode, You have to adjust,
907
00:48:07.579 --> 00:48:10.760
and the best teams can, but I think Carolina is
908
00:48:10.780 --> 00:48:13.300
going to do good against a line like that, but
909
00:48:13.340 --> 00:48:15.179
I think 90% of the league is going to be
910
00:48:15.199 --> 00:48:17.099
thrown off, and you might get a goal or two
911
00:48:17.139 --> 00:48:21.139
out of that line every night just because of its
912
00:48:21.179 --> 00:48:31.860
high danger chances, its opportunistic movement, its relentless forechecking, You know,
913
00:48:31.880 --> 00:48:34.440
and it's not even using speed to forecheck. It's just
914
00:48:34.519 --> 00:48:39.480
a veteran presence, understanding, positioning type of forecheck, which Stephanie's slow.
915
00:48:40.119 --> 00:48:43.929
Compared to his teammates, he's slow. But he's in everybody's face.
916
00:48:45.530 --> 00:48:48.449
And the reason why that happens that way is because
917
00:48:48.469 --> 00:48:52.110
he's relentless and incredibly intelligent. Like, he knows exactly where
918
00:48:52.130 --> 00:48:56.550
he needs to be. And so, like, you know, I
919
00:48:56.590 --> 00:48:58.329
wrote an article before we got on the show tonight
920
00:48:59.469 --> 00:49:04.480
about Amadeus Lombardi. And I don't think I want to
921
00:49:04.500 --> 00:49:08.559
break up that line yet. It's a catch-22, right? If
922
00:49:08.579 --> 00:49:10.320
you're the Devils, do you break up the fourth line,
923
00:49:10.340 --> 00:49:12.510
which has been playing so well and Boquist has looked
924
00:49:12.550 --> 00:49:15.489
really good, or do you break up a line that's
925
00:49:15.769 --> 00:49:20.360
unlocked your $ 4. 5 million free agent who is set? he
926
00:49:20.500 --> 00:49:24.500
feels more comfortable there? You've got a goal out of Rodriguez,
927
00:49:24.519 --> 00:49:28.000
who's another new addition. You've also got the best out
928
00:49:28.039 --> 00:49:31.739
of Dawson Mercer that you've seen all year. You've got
929
00:49:31.840 --> 00:49:34.559
Arseny Gritsik, who played as well as.
930
00:49:34.449 --> 00:49:37.730
He has all season. The lines looked as, and again,
931
00:49:37.769 --> 00:49:38.309
it's Detroit.
932
00:49:38.630 --> 00:49:39.889
So you have to kind of take it with a
933
00:49:39.909 --> 00:49:43.269
grain of salt. But at the same time, this is
934
00:49:43.369 --> 00:49:47.090
as good of chemistry as we saw this season. So,
935
00:49:48.369 --> 00:49:52.389
six in one hand, half dozen in the other. I do,
936
00:49:52.489 --> 00:49:56.659
I just, yeah. I think, what would you, who are
937
00:49:56.699 --> 00:50:00.440
you taking out? Evangelista is healthy tomorrow. Who are you
938
00:50:00.460 --> 00:50:01.099
taking out of the lineup?
939
00:50:04.099 --> 00:50:06.579
That's a tough question. Well, I think Boquist has to
940
00:50:06.599 --> 00:50:07.940
stay in the lineup no matter what.
941
00:50:08.179 --> 00:50:08.360
Mm-hmm.
942
00:50:08.969 --> 00:50:15.130
I agree. I've always felt that the fourth line has
943
00:50:15.210 --> 00:50:20.969
been the best line. You know, so far, a small
944
00:50:21.030 --> 00:50:30.070
sample size of this six games into the season. That's
945
00:50:30.130 --> 00:50:35.269
a tough one. What are your thoughts about Timo Meier,
946
00:50:35.309 --> 00:50:36.769
how he's performed so far?
947
00:50:36.849 --> 00:50:37.170
Because.
948
00:50:38.630 --> 00:50:39.949
Has he been non-existent?
949
00:50:41.269 --> 00:50:44.530
He's definitely not non-existent. He's causing a lot of turnovers.
950
00:50:47.659 --> 00:50:50.090
His shots are getting blocked a lot, so he kind
951
00:50:50.110 --> 00:50:53.340
of has to figure out when's the best time to shoot,
952
00:50:53.679 --> 00:50:55.840
but he's making a lot of noise in the neutral
953
00:50:55.880 --> 00:51:03.960
zone and in the offensive zone when he doesn't have possession. Again,
954
00:51:03.980 --> 00:51:06.079
I just feel like I don't even want to predict
955
00:51:06.099 --> 00:51:09.340
it because we've been here so many times before Where
956
00:51:09.380 --> 00:51:12.400
it's like, I'm not going to predict a goal explosion
957
00:51:12.440 --> 00:51:14.940
because he's in position all the time and he's causing turnovers.
958
00:51:14.960 --> 00:51:16.900
Because we've been here in October. We've been here in November.
959
00:51:16.920 --> 00:51:19.239
We've been here in December. Got to wait until March.
960
00:51:20.079 --> 00:51:23.869
You know what I mean? Until I see it consistently,
961
00:51:23.889 --> 00:51:28.590
I don't want to bench him. Two reasons why I
962
00:51:28.590 --> 00:51:31.630
don't want to bench him. I think I would rather
963
00:51:31.690 --> 00:51:35.110
bench Nason than Meyer. And I think I'm going to
964
00:51:35.150 --> 00:51:39.719
choose to bench Lombardi for one game. Get him a
965
00:51:39.980 --> 00:51:43.500
reset against the Rangers because he can't take penalties against
966
00:51:43.519 --> 00:51:46.239
the Rangers. They're just going to score. Same thing with
967
00:51:46.260 --> 00:51:48.880
the Mammoth. He just can't take penalties against certain teams
968
00:51:49.119 --> 00:51:53.050
and he's taking too many penalties. And I think you
969
00:51:53.090 --> 00:51:56.789
can kind of workshop that fourth line with either Mercer
970
00:51:56.809 --> 00:52:00.170
or maybe put Evangelista on that fourth line. And you
971
00:52:00.210 --> 00:52:02.510
see it's not like they're not going to play a
972
00:52:02.510 --> 00:52:05.349
lot of minutes. They start some of the games. So
973
00:52:06.030 --> 00:52:08.889
I think that you can find the right piece there.
974
00:52:09.690 --> 00:52:18.010
I'm not Benjamin Meyer yet. I'm not there. And I
975
00:52:18.070 --> 00:52:20.239
say this all the time. He does so much well.
976
00:52:21.460 --> 00:52:24.980
It's just not what the Devils paid him for. They
977
00:52:25.019 --> 00:52:31.380
didn't pay him to be Ryan Reeves. A nicer version
978
00:52:31.400 --> 00:52:36.110
of Ryan Reeves. They paid him to score 40 goals.
979
00:52:37.760 --> 00:52:39.989
But if he was making $ 3 million, I think he'd
980
00:52:40.050 --> 00:52:40.949
be a fan favorite.
981
00:52:41.250 --> 00:52:41.849
You know what I mean?
982
00:52:41.889 --> 00:52:45.570
Like, it's just the contract's really weighing down his... And
983
00:52:45.590 --> 00:52:49.489
I think it's putting pressure on himself, too. So, I
984
00:52:49.530 --> 00:52:54.239
am benching Lombardi for a game. And then if the
985
00:52:54.280 --> 00:52:57.800
chemistry continues with that third line, you have a harder
986
00:52:57.820 --> 00:53:00.800
decision to make. If it was like a one-game thing
987
00:53:00.840 --> 00:53:02.760
and it just did well against Detroit, then your decision's
988
00:53:02.800 --> 00:53:05.230
much easier and you can sit Nason again.
989
00:53:05.530 --> 00:53:05.929
And remember.
990
00:53:06.440 --> 00:53:12.380
The devils could send Mason to the HL whenever they want. They,
991
00:53:12.480 --> 00:53:15.889
they can do it at any, well, sorry for the next,
992
00:53:15.929 --> 00:53:20.969
I think 25 days, they do whenever they want. Um,
993
00:53:22.510 --> 00:53:26.690
cause he's, he's not eligible for waivers until 30 days
994
00:53:26.769 --> 00:53:29.489
since he was put on waivers. So you can kind
995
00:53:29.550 --> 00:53:33.059
of play around with your rosters a little bit. Um,
996
00:53:33.610 --> 00:53:35.250
Every time they send him down, I think they have
997
00:53:35.289 --> 00:53:36.190
to play him in the game.
998
00:53:36.409 --> 00:53:37.550
I think that's a rule.
999
00:53:38.269 --> 00:53:45.300
But besides that, I think, you know, you don't have
1000
00:53:45.320 --> 00:53:47.019
to worry about it until Connor Brown comes back. But
1001
00:53:47.059 --> 00:53:50.000
if Connor Brown's ready in a week, you could still
1002
00:53:50.059 --> 00:53:52.840
send Mason down without risk of losing him.
1003
00:53:56.840 --> 00:54:00.829
Okay. Yeah, I would agree.
1004
00:54:01.510 --> 00:54:02.010
I would agree.
1005
00:54:02.150 --> 00:54:07.619
I mean, I would... First off, I didn't say that
1006
00:54:07.699 --> 00:54:11.519
to bench Meyer. I just asked what your thoughts on Meyer.
1007
00:54:12.539 --> 00:54:15.099
But I would... If I was going to pull somebody
1008
00:54:15.239 --> 00:54:18.199
out for that game, it would be Lombardi. And the
1009
00:54:18.239 --> 00:54:22.599
reason why... This is Devil's Rangers. It's Devil's Rangers. And
1010
00:54:22.840 --> 00:54:26.360
you've got plenty of these in the next couple months.
1011
00:54:26.840 --> 00:54:29.789
So you can... You don't have to wait long the
1012
00:54:29.829 --> 00:54:34.289
next go-around to play against the Rangers. But The first
1013
00:54:34.389 --> 00:54:37.550
one you got to get, it's weird how the NHL
1014
00:54:37.590 --> 00:54:42.050
did the scheduling last season. Again, in the year 2026,
1015
00:54:42.050 --> 00:54:47.059
calendar year 2026, they played the Rangers three times, right?
1016
00:54:47.400 --> 00:54:49.739
Last season. And then they're going to play how many?
1017
00:54:49.840 --> 00:54:54.860
Four times in three months. So in the calendar year,
1018
00:54:54.900 --> 00:54:58.519
you're going to play seven times against the New York Rangers.
1019
00:54:59.670 --> 00:55:01.269
I think they have one next year, so I think
1020
00:55:01.289 --> 00:55:03.510
it's three times in the calendar year. I think they
1021
00:55:03.530 --> 00:55:04.789
play two twice in December.
1022
00:55:07.179 --> 00:55:10.380
I thought it was all done by December. I thought
1023
00:55:10.400 --> 00:55:14.480
they played four games against the Rangers.
1024
00:55:17.539 --> 00:55:18.599
I'm trying to find it.
1025
00:55:18.880 --> 00:55:21.750
Yeah, that's the other gripe I have is the Devils
1026
00:55:21.989 --> 00:55:24.510
app trying to get the schedule. Like, don't they have
1027
00:55:24.530 --> 00:55:27.070
a full schedule? I only get, like, all the home games.
1028
00:55:27.570 --> 00:55:29.889
Like... Oh, you're right.
1029
00:55:29.909 --> 00:55:30.150
It is.
1030
00:55:30.190 --> 00:55:34.909
They're all in December. It's 3 December. I wrote about it.
1031
00:55:34.920 --> 00:55:36.559
I just forgot. I thought there was one in January.
1032
00:55:36.800 --> 00:55:37.940
No, no, no, no.
1033
00:55:38.039 --> 00:55:41.860
It's the 7th.
1034
00:55:43.139 --> 00:55:47.519
It's Monday, Tuesday, Tuesday, and then this one's on Thursday.
1035
00:55:47.559 --> 00:55:50.110
There's no Saturday Night Devils Rangers game.
1036
00:55:51.269 --> 00:55:55.630
What is this league? No Friday night or Saturday night
1037
00:55:55.650 --> 00:55:56.550
Devils Rangers game.
1038
00:55:57.719 --> 00:56:00.900
Or even any Friday night games with the Devils. I mean,
1039
00:56:00.920 --> 00:56:04.969
there's only a couple. You know, it's just a little
1040
00:56:04.989 --> 00:56:05.610
weird this year.
1041
00:56:05.949 --> 00:56:08.010
The only reason I like that, Sam, is usually they
1042
00:56:08.030 --> 00:56:10.449
pair a Wednesday night game with a Friday night game.
1043
00:56:13.909 --> 00:56:15.909
Oh, for programming purposes?
1044
00:56:16.489 --> 00:56:17.230
Yeah, for us.
1045
00:56:17.809 --> 00:56:21.630
Okay. Well, maybe that's why they did it. AI schedule
1046
00:56:21.690 --> 00:56:24.650
is like, no. State of the Fan Address needs to
1047
00:56:24.690 --> 00:56:26.690
go on. We're going to have to limit that.
1048
00:56:27.230 --> 00:56:32.239
Yeah. But let's do some plugs. Yep. You ready?
1049
00:56:32.340 --> 00:56:33.860
Yep.
1050
00:56:34.099 --> 00:56:38.619
We might have a special. Can I plug this?
1051
00:56:39.460 --> 00:56:41.179
Yeah, you can plug it, but we're going to need
1052
00:56:41.199 --> 00:56:43.809
the details after the podcast.
1053
00:56:44.730 --> 00:56:49.010
Well, let's just say we might have a weekend special
1054
00:56:49.610 --> 00:56:52.820
State of the Fan Address on Friday. We're working out
1055
00:56:52.860 --> 00:56:56.869
the details. The final details. But I think we're confirmed.
1056
00:56:56.929 --> 00:56:58.449
I think, you know, it's going to be a quickie.
1057
00:56:58.489 --> 00:57:01.630
Just a 30-minute, John. Just to get you getting into
1058
00:57:01.670 --> 00:57:03.969
the weekend. And, you know, but we want to recap
1059
00:57:04.010 --> 00:57:09.329
the Devils-Rangers game. And we're talking with a very prominent guest.
1060
00:57:10.710 --> 00:57:14.610
You know, so everybody tune into that on Friday when
1061
00:57:15.369 --> 00:57:18.639
we get it. Timing, again, we're working out the timing,
1062
00:57:18.679 --> 00:57:20.960
but we got some confirmations that are done.
1063
00:57:21.639 --> 00:57:26.190
We should be good. But Besides that, go to pucksandpitchworks.com.
1064
00:57:26.309 --> 00:57:28.809
I just wrote about Amadeus Lombardi, why I think he
1065
00:57:28.829 --> 00:57:29.889
should be the next guy to sit.
1066
00:57:30.449 --> 00:57:31.739
I just talked about, or.
1067
00:57:33.500 --> 00:57:36.219
Damian just wrote about how Jack Hughes is the key
1068
00:57:36.280 --> 00:57:38.119
to the Devils beating the Rangers.
1069
00:57:37.719 --> 00:57:39.840
Because he just takes it up a notch against this team.
1070
00:57:40.820 --> 00:57:43.480
We got JP Gambates is going to talk about whether
1071
00:57:43.519 --> 00:57:45.980
Jack Hughes is the greatest three versus three player of
1072
00:57:46.019 --> 00:57:50.329
all time. I wrote about the Devils game last night.
1073
00:57:51.730 --> 00:57:53.929
I have another one that's coming up. It's going to
1074
00:57:53.949 --> 00:57:56.389
be coming out today or tomorrow morning.
1075
00:57:56.469 --> 00:58:01.250
One of those two. We got a couple.
1076
00:58:01.269 --> 00:58:04.610
Oh, we got Luke Garrison talked about if it's panic
1077
00:58:04.650 --> 00:58:07.630
time yet after the Devils lost to.
1078
00:58:10.750 --> 00:58:14.070
The Senators. Charlie Borges Jr.
1079
00:58:14.090 --> 00:58:15.989
Talked about the Devils inability to score first. We got
1080
00:58:16.030 --> 00:58:18.550
everything covered. Pucks and Pitchforks.com.
1081
00:58:18.630 --> 00:58:24.300
Go over there. You're going to have some great times. Wonderful.
1082
00:58:24.739 --> 00:58:28.340
Wonderful. Well, we hope to have the big stage tomorrow
1083
00:58:29.239 --> 00:58:34.260
for Game Day Live outside of American Whiskey. As far
1084
00:58:34.300 --> 00:58:38.820
as I know, they figured out this whole permit thing,
1085
00:58:39.320 --> 00:58:42.199
all that. But if not, we'll be on the third floor. So,
1086
00:58:42.480 --> 00:58:45.039
you know, again, I don't want to jinx it, but
1087
00:58:45.079 --> 00:58:48.980
it should be a great Devil's Rangers game. tomorrow um
1088
00:58:49.019 --> 00:58:51.059
so i'll be at american whiskey for game day live
1089
00:58:51.340 --> 00:58:55.630
and devils after dark and um yeah that's all i
1090
00:58:55.619 --> 00:58:57.380
got nick that's all i.
1091
00:58:57.340 --> 00:59:03.269
Got love that yeah gonna be great game that was
1092
00:59:03.349 --> 00:59:04.269
rangers baby.
1093
00:59:04.650 --> 00:59:09.090
Yeah absolutely i'm going to hit the music. All right. Well,
1094
00:59:09.389 --> 00:59:13.110
I want to thank all those tuning in. Drop in
1095
00:59:13.130 --> 00:59:20.110
the podcast at midnight. Go to pucksandpitchforks.com. Read the articles.
1096
00:59:21.610 --> 00:59:24.889
Thank you to CJ for coming on to the podcast.
1097
00:59:25.889 --> 00:59:32.329
And also set your alerts. Possibly on Friday. But you
1098
00:59:32.369 --> 00:59:33.909
and I are going to talk a little bit off
1099
00:59:33.969 --> 00:59:38.239
air how this is going to work. Anyway, until next time,
1100
00:59:38.940 --> 00:59:40.239
let's go Devils.