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Epistemic status: Feeling frustrated, and therefore somewhat uncharitable. I’m very frustrated with calls for people to “drop everything and pivot into AI safety” like this one. (See also this, this, this, this for recent calls for more people to go into AI safety; though my frustration was trigger…
Robin Hanson didn't invent the idea of a martingale process. The lilim say that Ville in 1939 gave the term its mathematical meaning and Doob turned it into the modern theory. But to state this is not to realize that your own probability assignments over time ought to form a martingale in your…
A summary of a Chinese essay, with a few short translated excerpts. All views below are the author's; quotes are my translations. On 14 September 2026, a DeepSeek engineer writing as intlsy published a WeChat essay titled 我不得不把才华埋葬在昨天 ("I have to bury my talent in yesterday"). He wro…
Lots of the discussion around Lean certificates and trust centers around general philosophical ideas of how much humans should trust formal certificates. It's important to remember, though, that Lean4 is not an ideal formal certificate machine: Lean4 is a software in its infancy and has issues…
Zvi recently coined a nice distinction between AGI-pilled and ASI-pilled: as more people are reckoning with the speed of progress, some are beginning to come around to the fact that AI could be superhuman at a huge range of tasks in a way that radically reshapes society, but not that it could leap …
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