How are the 2026 Midterm Elections Shaping Up with Dr. Rachel Bitecofer

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Hi, welcome to the Kudzu Vine for September 27th, 2026.
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I'm your host, Dave McLaughlin. Joining me as always, welcome back,
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Wendy Davis.
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Thanks.
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Good to see you all tonight.
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And welcome, Tim Shifflett.
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Good evening, sir.
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All right. Well, good to have you all on in
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about 20 minutes. In our second segment, we're going to
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have Dr. Rachel Bitticoff coming in. I don't know how
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many times she's been on. She's my favorite guest. And
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she's going to talk about her midterm projections on her sub-stack,
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the cycle. But until then, we've got all kinds of,
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I guess I might say, Trump-centric news. And let's start
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off with late in the week, there was a Supreme
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Court ruling handed down, a 6-3 decision, saying that Homeland
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Security could have access to the voter rolls to look
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for possible non-citizens in that are on the voter rolls. Now,
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my understanding is they're not going to find a whole
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lot of non-citizens on the voter rolls because, by and large,
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people that are not citizens just aren't going to take
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the risk, even if they wanted to vote, not necessarily
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they want to vote, they want to work, usually, to
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be on there. But what's going to happen is people
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with surnames that sound like they may not be, you know,
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natural-born American citizens, they are going to have to prove
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their citizenship, even though they are citizens. So it's going
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to become a major hassle factor. And if they decide
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to come after them right before the election, it could
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be a problem where they're disenfranchised wrongly. And that's the
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big issue there as far as the legal part of it. Tim,
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I know you've put a lot more study in this
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whole thing. What are some of the other aspects of this?
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Well, yeah. I wanted to mention.
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Shout out to Mark Elias, something he said about this.
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One of the states that they took a shot at
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their rolls was Nevada, and they initially claimed they found 16,000
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non-citizen registered voters. Well, people got to check in, and
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next thing you know, they dropped the number down to 185.
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And yesterday, it turned out all 185 of those voters
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are indeed citizens, so the number dropped to zero. I
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think that's what's going to be going on around the country.
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The big question is, Will this affect the midterms? Now,
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federal law, here's an important thing. Federal law prohibits the
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removal of voters from the rolls if the election is
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less than 90 days away. Well, this one's in 37 days.
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People in multiple states are voting. So if they start
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trying to do something, you know, I'm worried that if
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red states decided, if asked to do so by the
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Department of Homeland Security, that they would conduct a massive
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purge of voter rolls. How would it be stopped? And
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how could it be stopped even if it was taken
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to court in the middle of people voting? Even if
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voting groups sued in court, nothing changed. you know, would
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be decided until the election was over.
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And so.
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I guess to be realistic, guys, any attempt by the
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feds to do anything with this would result in chaos,
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which would be just fine with Trump. Because in his mind,
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if you can't win the election, then you.
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Discredit the results.
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That's what I'm very fearful will happen. this thing that
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even the Supreme Court in their ruling said that this
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probably would not do more than minimally affect any voters
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in this.
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Election cycle.
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But do y'all really believe that Trump's just going to
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sit there and be okay with that?
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Yeah, I'll let Wendy have a first stab at that.
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Um, No, I mean, so the thing that confused me,
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and I haven't read very deeply on it, but what
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it seemed to me the Supreme Court did was remove
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the lower court's say.
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Right, of the action, but it's still, it's not like
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the case was thrown out. The case is still moving forward, right?
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The League of Women Voters suing, and the Supreme Court
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did say that they had standing. So, there is a
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chance that this could still lose in court again. But
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what Trump is trying to.
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Do is so confusion and discord, you know, not shocking.
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It's what he does.
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And Tim's absolutely right. Whether it's for this.
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Election or the next election, just creating chaos and.
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Concern and more of the oh my goodness, the boogeyman
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of people who aren't citizens trying to impact the election
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in an inappropriate manner. They're just going to keep stirring
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that up. I'm glad that we have provisional ballots here
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in Georgia, and I think we're going to need to
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do a lot of work to make sure people understand
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to demand a provisional ballot if for some reason their.
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Registration has been canceled.
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So at least that gives us a small window to
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fix things if it happens here.
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Yeah, I will say this. I'm always for people voting
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when it's most convenient. And that means if it's most
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convenient for you to vote on Election Day at 6
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o'clock in the evening, I think that's not a problem
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if that's your plan normally. But if your name could
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be one of those places that you think, oh, well,
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the Trump administration is going to come after me. Or
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maybe you were a naturalized citizen and you became a
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citizen a cycle or two ago. And then you think
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this could be an issue. That's probably going to be
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a situation where you need to make your plan of
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going to vote early so you can make sure there
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are no issues to where you can get all this
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straightened out to make sure your vote counts. Because I
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know that Provisional voting is really, really good, but you
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would rather get that done early in the cycle or
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then hopefully work it out and get it secured as
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opposed to doing it at 630 at night and then
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hoping it gets secured afterwards because we're talking about, once again,
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a Trump administration justice system and everything else that would
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put their hands into the– you know, state election system.
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And we have a lot of states that want to
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push back from Trump. And it's not just the, you know,
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the Democratic states. I mean, Brad Raffensperger, he may be
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a Republican. I may disagree on a lot of issues,
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but he's been a good champion of letting folks vote
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and letting votes count more so than I think a
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lot of the Republicans who actually wanted to disqualify him
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from even running, you know, for offices. Wendy, I know
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you're into a lot of these situations. Does that plan
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make sense if people need to vote early because if
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they think they're going to be targets of this?
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Absolutely. I wish I had thought to say that. That's very,
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very well said.
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Yeah.
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Okay.
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And Tim, are there any other issues surrounding this that
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I may have missed on the court rulings?
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No, basically the court ruling is.
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That Trump has the green light to continue setting up
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this expansion and setting up this tool in the Department
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of Homeland Security to be ready to go do this.
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My concern is who's going to tell Trump, well, you
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can't do this. I don't think the red states are
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going to do that. That's what we've got to watch.
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And you're absolutely right about one thing. My advice to voters,
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they want to discourage you. They want to make it
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hard for you to vote or make you think your
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vote don't count or something. My advice to everyone, vote
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and vote as quickly as you possibly can. We need
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to flood the polls in such large numbers, as Jamie
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Raskin has said.
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That.
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It can't be ignored or contested, just like Hungary, he said.
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And he's right.
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We've got to go vote, keep the eye on the
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prize type of thing. Trump's going to do what he's
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going to do or try to do what he's going
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to do. What we can do as a response while
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others are carrying this stuff to court is go and vote.
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I've already singled out the earliest day that I can
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go vote in person on early voting up here, and
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that's what I'm going to do bright and early that
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day and get my vote in the bank. That's what
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everyone needs to do all over this country.
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Yeah, and it's going to be interesting because a lot
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of places like VoteHub, and I know Tom Bonnier, his
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firm TargetSmart, they'll do a lot of analysis of on
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who's voting early, and that's kind of an indicator of
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kind of an early scorecard, if you will, watching to
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see how those come in, so we'll kind of keep
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track of that moving forward. Well, Trump, you know, he
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didn't stop pushing that this week and doing all kinds
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of things. I don't even know where to begin, but
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I'm going to start with one of the strangest things
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I've heard in a while, and that would be Donald
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Trump putting a poll together wanting to rename artificial intelligence
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because apparently it's not that, you know, the heads of,
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you know, Anthropic and other companies are saying that there's
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no guardrails and it could really, you know, even push
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humanity to extinction, but at least give lots of problems
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to humanity and the way it's broken through guardrails and
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everything else. He says, it's just a Brandon problem. So
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he did a poll. He said, should we call it superintelligence,
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supreme intelligence, or extreme intelligence. Now, Wendy, I'm sure you
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voted in that poll, and you can start off by
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telling us which one you picked. But then after that,
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if you want to tell us if it really is
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just a branding problem, or is Trump just not even
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understanding this issue in any way?
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Well, you know.
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Trump is just trying to manipulate it because, again.
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He and.
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His family have investments in artificial intelligence, right? And he
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wants to keep all of his masters.
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His economic masters, happy.
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And, you know, those fellows funded him significantly.
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And it's just distraction, distraction, distraction.
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Distraction.
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Anything to talk about something other than the chaos he
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has created through his policies, the fact that I'm telling y'all,
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I was shocked because I keep having to, when I
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fill up my car and I've got a, you know,
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a small SUV, I'm now going over $ 50 to fill.
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Up my car.
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And today at the gas station, the person who filled
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up before me had to put $ 107 in.
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Of gas in their car.
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$ 107 on the, I was, I was floored by that.
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I don't, I'd have to stop driving and that would
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certainly hurt the work I'm.
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Doing right now.
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So he's just trying to distract and play games. That's
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what he does.
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Yeah.
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But I don't think this is real effective. Tim, I
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actually looked it up and I thought, you know, Google
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and Apple, they just, every time Trump renames a body
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of water, they're just, you know, toe the line and
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they change it to you know, Gulf of America, Lake
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of America, or Lake America, whatever else it is. And
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so I went on, I used Gemini, the Google tool,
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and I asked, I said, now, is Google going to
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call AI, super artificial intelligence, super intelligence? It said no.
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And then I asked about Apple, no. And I'm like, well,
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why not? And they're like, well, it doesn't even make
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any sense because it is artificial intelligence. if it's super
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or extreme or supreme, it means that a sentient being,
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mostly a human, actually contains the intelligence. If the intelligence
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is in a computer form, it's artificial. And so I
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get back to the fact that I just don't think
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Donald Trump understands. I know he wants to make money
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off of everything he can. He'd run a a punch
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board system out of the Oval Office if he thought
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he could make a buck. But I don't really think
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he understands this issue and this problem, does.
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He?
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I don't think he understands most issues, David. I'll tell
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you what he does understand. He is accustomed when he
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makes a pronouncement of everybody getting in line and agreeing
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with him.
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And I'm going to tell you something.
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If he decides to put a little pressure on Google
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and some others to change the name of it to
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say Supreme Intelligence, well, you know what? That's exactly what
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I believe they'll do because they have decided since the
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day he walked back into the Oval Office that the
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best way to get along was to go along. And
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not just them, but a lot of big billionaires and
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stuff like that. And that's what most of them are doing.
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So I wouldn't be surprised if they changed.
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The name of it.
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Of course, people need to understand that once him and
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his bunch are gone, all these things are going to
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go back to the names that they were, whether, you know,
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anybody likes it or not. Because, well, you know, because facts,
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I guess.
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Yeah, it's systemic of a bigger issue. It's not just
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the naming in this case. It's that he doesn't understand it.
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We'll see.
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I mean, I did this check on, I believe, Wednesday morning.
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It had not been anything, so I'll keep seeing it.
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It's harder to check than obviously looking at Google Maps
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or Apple Maps and seeing if they've renamed Lake Ontario
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Lake of America or something like that. Well, let's talk
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about something else that happened this week. They had the
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big summit with China. The Chairman Yi came over and
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met with Donald Trump, and they discussed all kinds of things,
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some public, some which we probably don't fully know privately.
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But really one of the more shocking out-of-left-field things that
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came out of that summit was Donald Trump saying that
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he may allow, or I guess technically it is take
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off the 100% tariffs. And these are tariffs that Joe
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Biden actually signed or renewed or what have you. This
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is kind of a more bipartisan tariff on BYD electric cars.
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He said he may just take those off, which is
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so strange given his made in America message. Wendy, did
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you see that pronouncement? And what did you think of that,
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that he just casually said that he may allow these
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Chinese EVs, which are far cheaper and actually have better
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ratings than Tesla and others.
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Look, you know, he's always looking for a deal, and
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maybe these guys cut him in, are going to let
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him or his kids be an investor in their companies, and,
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you know, he's just doing them a solid. I can't
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figure out why he prefers to have positive relationships with
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people and countries that should be our enemies. The war
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we're currently in, at his choice, our opponents are being
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funded by the Chinese. The Republicans, you might notice lately,
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the Republicans have been trying to find a way to
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push back against the data center outrage among regular everyday citizens.
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And the boogeyman they came up with was China, China, China.
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And oops, there they go talking about the evils of
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China in terms of can't let them outdo us with
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data centers.
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We've got to keep up.
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And then their boy Trump goes and literally rolls out
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the red carpet.
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Runs to the plane to meet this dictator. It's just baffling.
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And I don't know how they keep up with which.
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End is up.
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Yeah, the flyover where he winced at the noise. Now, Tim,
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I made the comment.
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One of our.
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Frequent Get Passed guests said something about how this will
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hurt American automakers. And I said, honestly, the BYDs, they
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may not hurt if you're in the market for a
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Dodge Ram or a F-150 or a Silverado. It's not
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going to hurt that. It's going to hurt Tesla, Rivian,
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and Slate. Slate has heavy investment from Jeff Bezos, and
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Tesla is on stock and barrel by Elon Musk. So
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wouldn't this be impacting his friends as hard as anybody?
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It would be, except there was also talk that Trump
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indicated that he would not be opposed to the Chinese
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building plants and building those cars over here. Then we're
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talking about direct competition on our soil with the big three,
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not only to sell vehicles, but for auto workers and such.
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Then it would get very different, wouldn't it?
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Yeah, although I don't know if the cost helps there
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because one thing that keeps the cost low is you know,
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Chinese labor that's paid less. If you paid anything close
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to American standards, it would be hard to maintain.
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Well, that was mentioned, and even with the increased labor
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cost over here, the Chinese vehicles would be cheaper now.
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than most anything for sale in this country electric or
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run by fossil fuels. Because obviously the vehicle itself just
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doesn't cost a lot to produce. I mean, they're selling
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them over there for a lot. $ 13, 000. If they bring
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them over here and just double that, they're still going
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to be very, very competitive.
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Oh, yes, much less than anything but maybe the Slate,
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which the Slate is a very stripped-down vehicle on purpose
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to try to bring the price point down. So it'd
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be interesting to see if it happens. I think eventually
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the world keeps getting smaller and smaller. You're going to
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see more products around. Well, there's one final thing I
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wanted to mention that even though it's not completely Trump-centric,
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it had something to do with the Supreme Court making
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a ruling. Apparently a 9-0 ruling was handed down by
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the Supreme Court, Tim, from all the Missouri House districts.
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Missouri keeps trying to get these House districts in. Tell
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us what happened there with that ruling.
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For the third time, count them, three times the Supreme
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Court rejected the Republican-drawn congressional mouth that Donald Trump had pushed.
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It is a correct ruling as people are starting to
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get ready to vote, and they keep going back and forth,
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and the Supreme Court keeps saying, no, we've done ruled
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on this.
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The And all of.
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This because the GOP map had targeted Emanuel Cleaver's district,
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you know, over there in the Kansas City area. They
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had redrawn his district and turned it from a safe
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Democratic district literally into a safe Republican district. Now it
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reverts again into a safe Democratic district. There have been
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16 lawsuits filed over this one district. That's how hard
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the Republicans have pushed this middle-of-the-decade redistricting to try to
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grab every district they could because they can see what's
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coming at the polls the same that we can. And
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they're trying to buffer it by grabbing these districts.
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Well, in this case, it didn't work.
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So Trump got a win and a loss this week
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out of the Supreme Court.
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Yes, Wendy, Missouri is not by any means the most
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Republican state. It's got Democratic strongholds. But does it seem
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like Missouri Republicans are some of those most strident Republicans
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and just pushing what they want regardless of what anybody decides?
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Yeah, I mean, again, it's part of this– Trump has
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made people feel emboldened to– to make decisions that are, you.
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Know, contrary to.
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The, you know, it's, it's like, get the power.
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You can do it.
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There's nothing wrong with you grabbing the power like this gerrymandering.
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It's okay.
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Um, and, and it's okay if it's racial, just say
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it's not racial, say it's political, say it's partisan and
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partisan is okay. And racial sometimes not. Okay. So, I mean,
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there's just, it, Again, people used to say all kinds
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of horrible things, but they said it quietly or in
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a whisper behind closed doors. And, you know, Trump says, oh,
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just put it on a megaphone. Just be as awful
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as you want to be.
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And just be loud about it, because by golly, we've
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got the power.
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So let's use it while we can.
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Yes.
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Well, we covered a lot of topics in that first segment.
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We come back after the break. We're going to talk
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to Dr. Rachel Bitterkofer. Hi, welcome back to the Kudzu Vine.
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And joining us for I don't know how many times
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she's been on, one of our favorite guests, Dr. Rachel Bitterkofer. Welcome, Dr. Bitterkofer.
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Hey, how y'all doing?
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It's fall, y'all.
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Yeah, getting that way. I know you've been talking a
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lot about Oregon football almost as much as politics, right?
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That's how I spend the football season, definitely.
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Yep.
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Yep.
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We all have to have a diversion.
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Yep.
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But we did have you on. It's a political show,
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so we're going to try to stick to politics. And
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your midterm prospectus came out. It was just fascinating. And
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before we start drilling into specific states, I just wanted
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to ask you kind of a global question. Obviously, there's
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so many issues that, you know, people are voting on prices,
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affordability issues. you know, the war and how much they
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may not like it and data centers. But all of
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this seems to come back to Donald Trump's poor decision making.
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Do you think from what you can tell in the
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research you've done, are voters putting that together that they
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don't like the cause, Donald Trump's decision making, or is
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it just all the symptoms of like how much they
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have to pay for everything?
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I mean, if you're asking a complex question, I'll tell
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you like organically, there's only so many people who connect
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like high prices to Trump and that's why your advertising
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needs to help them make that connection.
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Right.
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But never before have we had a president, I mean,
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you know, the way they treated Biden and the pandemic inflation,
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he was personally responsible for it and they made it
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a central theme of the 2024 cycle. But, you know,
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we Democrats aren't as good at that.
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Right.
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And here we have the case where Donald Trump literally
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did it to himself.
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He did.
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All he had to do was nothing.
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Right.
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Biden's economy was getting ready to go. All he had
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to do was nothing. Inflation had gone down to two seven.
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Right.
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And gas was down to like three twenty five a
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gallon or whatever. And these two decisions, the trade wars
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and tariffs, and then the stupid war in Iran, which
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I am sure his military advisors told him not to
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do because of the straight-up hormes, and he did it
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anyway because he had to go and show what a
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man he is, right? So in this case, it's really
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much easier for people to blame the president because, especially
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with Iran, it's very clear. He did this thing in Iran,
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and he created an oil crisis, and now diesel is $ 7, right?
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Yes.
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And one more question about Trump. You see his approval
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rating as low as, I believe, 29 percent. You might
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see it sneak up to a robust 37 percent. But
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my question is, of those people that disapprove, you know,
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roughly over 60 percent in every single poll, how many
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of those folks are going to be like, well, I
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don't like what Trump is doing, but I'm still just
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going to vote for Republicans because that's what I do?
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Yeah, I mean, what we're going to see this cycle,
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what I highlighted in my forecast, which is very different
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than what other analysts are doing. is the difference between
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this midterm and the 2018 midterm, which was the last
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midterm effect against Trump. And Trump is just himself a
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very divisive person. He was divisive term one and he's
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multiplied it by a thousand term two. So that midterm
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effect has always been robust. But in 18, when I
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was developing my forecasting technique and I was tracking things
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in 2017 and 2018 for special elections to kind of
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indicate what's going to happen, Democrats were able to clean
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up on the swing map. They were on basically every
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swing race there was in 2017 and 2018. But they
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never picked up defection from Republican voters. And that's what
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this cycle is so unique about. We're seeing about a
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10 percent, one in five Republican voter that is telling
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us they want to defect and has evidence that we've
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had about six, seven races in the most recent one.
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is in Pennsylvania where it had a state house special
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election in July. And that was a Trump, I believe,
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like 13 district. And it flipped. And those things cannot happen.
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You can't be flipping deep red places unless you're getting
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defection because those electorates are going to be majority Republican
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and right-leaning independents. And where that defection is particularly coming
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from is those independents who admit that they vote for
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Republicans typically. We're seeing softening right there. Those are people
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that are softening.
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Yes.
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Well, I'm going to ask you one more question, and
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I'm going to let Wendy and Tim really drill down
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into this prospectus and everything else. But I wanted to
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ask you about a state, your state that you live in, Oregon.
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Oregon's obviously a very blue state, high disapproval for Donald Trump,
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two Democratic senators there. a Democratic governor, Tina Kotek, and
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I've seen some polling that suggests she's probably going to
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win just because it's such a Democratic state, but she's
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having trouble in a weird cycle. Why does she seemingly
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not connect with voters as much as the average Democratic
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00:29:47.490 --> 00:29:50.089
governor would in a political environment like this?
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I will tell you it's because she is a short-haired
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lesbian that is why and you know those candidates fair
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or not or those politicians you have to overcome two
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things there being a woman okay which changes things and
488
00:30:08.799 --> 00:30:11.640
then being a lesbian on top of it so some
489
00:30:11.700 --> 00:30:14.359
of it is no doubt that but what is what
490
00:30:14.420 --> 00:30:18.089
is going on on the west coast is the liberal base,
491
00:30:18.130 --> 00:30:21.359
you know, the liberal, we tried this, we tried what
492
00:30:21.400 --> 00:30:23.920
Mandami is planning on rolling out in New York City
493
00:30:23.960 --> 00:30:26.980
on the West Coast for homeless policy. And all of
494
00:30:27.039 --> 00:30:31.680
our progressive ideas backfired and created even more homeless and
495
00:30:31.740 --> 00:30:34.599
even more drug use. And it, you know, really early
496
00:30:34.619 --> 00:30:38.759
in the life. being dragged down by that, but I
497
00:30:38.779 --> 00:30:41.539
have absolutely no concern about Oregon. In fact, Oregon is
498
00:30:41.559 --> 00:30:42.660
so blue this cycle.
499
00:30:43.000 --> 00:30:43.700
We know all of.
500
00:30:43.720 --> 00:30:47.460
Our swing or one swing race, two swing race, swing
501
00:30:47.519 --> 00:30:50.619
races for the house of representatives aren't even swinging.
502
00:30:50.640 --> 00:30:51.420
Okay.
503
00:30:51.799 --> 00:30:55.799
So it would be absolutely shocking. If, if, if we
504
00:30:55.819 --> 00:30:58.460
were to see something where, you know, Tina Kotech wasn't,
505
00:30:58.829 --> 00:31:02.400
wasn't reelected, I would be shocked. Now her opponents, If
506
00:31:02.460 --> 00:31:05.259
she was in a swing state, it would be formidable.
507
00:31:05.440 --> 00:31:08.799
Probably the best Republican they have anywhere on the ticket
508
00:31:08.859 --> 00:31:11.720
right now is Christine Grayson, but that's not enough to
509
00:31:11.849 --> 00:31:15.829
overcome that party idea on the ballot in a cycle
510
00:31:15.869 --> 00:31:18.069
where no one's buying the R brand.
511
00:31:19.410 --> 00:31:22.269
Yes, I was just interested about that. So now we're
512
00:31:22.289 --> 00:31:25.650
going to get into the really competitive stuff with Wendy
513
00:31:25.690 --> 00:31:27.970
and then Tim. Wendy, I'm going to let you ask
514
00:31:28.009 --> 00:31:28.690
some questions.
515
00:31:31.380 --> 00:31:33.650
Thanks so much, and Doc, thanks for being with us.
516
00:31:35.029 --> 00:31:40.029
I am most curious about Texas. Should we believe this time?
517
00:31:40.049 --> 00:31:42.990
How many times have they wanted us to believe that
518
00:31:43.029 --> 00:31:46.210
we could make Texas blue or.
519
00:31:47.690 --> 00:31:50.519
Bluish? Where are we going with Texas?
520
00:31:50.579 --> 00:31:53.920
The Senate race seems exciting, and heck, I think there
521
00:31:53.940 --> 00:31:56.799
was a poll this week that showed that the governor's
522
00:31:56.859 --> 00:31:57.599
race was close.
523
00:31:57.660 --> 00:31:59.660
So tell me where we're going in Texas.
524
00:32:00.339 --> 00:32:00.539
Yeah.
525
00:32:00.619 --> 00:32:03.930
So the forecast is focused in the Senate side about,
526
00:32:04.029 --> 00:32:06.329
you know, how hard it is to win a Senate
527
00:32:06.349 --> 00:32:09.869
majority that cycle in every cycle until we fix our
528
00:32:09.970 --> 00:32:15.000
branded middle America. And, you know, even with a blue wave,
529
00:32:15.460 --> 00:32:17.980
you know, you're looking at pickups that are tough. Maine,
530
00:32:18.339 --> 00:32:21.880
North Carolina is in, you know, pretty much in the bag.
531
00:32:22.240 --> 00:32:25.119
But you got Maine and Alaska. And then you have
532
00:32:25.160 --> 00:32:27.579
to go beyond that if you want the majorities. So
533
00:32:27.619 --> 00:32:29.700
not only do you have to win these hard states,
534
00:32:29.779 --> 00:32:33.289
Maine and Alaska, we add in Texas and Ohio to
535
00:32:33.329 --> 00:32:36.130
that mix. Now, what I want to tell you is
536
00:32:36.210 --> 00:32:41.509
if not now, never, eh, okay? You've got the right candidate,
537
00:32:41.849 --> 00:32:46.609
the right fundamentals, the right campaign strategy, right? Like it's
538
00:32:46.930 --> 00:32:50.339
all happening in Texas right now. And you've got the
539
00:32:50.740 --> 00:32:55.799
worst opponent you could ever have. So if not now, never, okay?
540
00:32:56.309 --> 00:32:58.990
And yes, I do think Texas has potential to flip.
541
00:32:59.109 --> 00:33:02.069
If we are looking at a math where Ohio goes
542
00:33:02.309 --> 00:33:06.329
to blue and the governor and Senate race, I think
543
00:33:06.450 --> 00:33:11.240
it's probable that Texas will go to certifying that win. However,
544
00:33:11.720 --> 00:33:13.920
different problems, different conversation.
545
00:33:15.559 --> 00:33:15.900
Right.
546
00:33:16.579 --> 00:33:20.559
And are you, let's, let's have, tell me what you've
547
00:33:20.599 --> 00:33:24.170
looked at here in Georgia. Of course, feeling good about
548
00:33:24.230 --> 00:33:28.789
our Senate race. I suppose you're seeing that off office
549
00:33:28.869 --> 00:33:31.349
in good shape. How do you see the governor's race?
550
00:33:32.269 --> 00:33:34.450
Yeah, I mean, I think that's competitive as well because
551
00:33:34.509 --> 00:33:37.109
of the environment that we're in and, you know, the
552
00:33:37.150 --> 00:33:40.410
candidate that they have put up, Slick Rick, right? And
553
00:33:40.450 --> 00:33:43.359
good for her for naming him and giving him a silly.
554
00:33:43.160 --> 00:33:43.960
Nickname, right?
555
00:33:45.059 --> 00:33:47.700
So there's a potential we'll see Georgia for the first
556
00:33:47.740 --> 00:33:52.470
time go blue statewide outside of the Senate races. And
557
00:33:52.970 --> 00:33:57.710
Ossoff obviously is, in my opinion, setting the tone of
558
00:33:57.750 --> 00:34:00.609
how to campaign and win reelection in a state like
559
00:34:00.650 --> 00:34:04.630
Georgia and possibly the presidency, though he says he's not
560
00:34:04.650 --> 00:34:10.500
going to run, and has luckily put this race in
561
00:34:10.539 --> 00:34:14.519
what I would call too big to rig. And why
562
00:34:14.559 --> 00:34:16.519
do I mention that? And as I point out in
563
00:34:16.559 --> 00:34:19.960
the forecast, There's very few– I mean, there are places
564
00:34:20.000 --> 00:34:23.099
where they can get in the way of certification. Texas
565
00:34:23.139 --> 00:34:26.639
is obviously the best example of that, where the Republican
566
00:34:27.050 --> 00:34:33.010
Party of Texas has told us that they're going to–
567
00:34:37.880 --> 00:34:42.219
the Republican legislature gave itself a power of veto over
568
00:34:42.280 --> 00:34:46.039
election certification. But I don't think that it's going to
569
00:34:46.099 --> 00:34:48.820
be played. I don't think that I think we're going
570
00:34:48.840 --> 00:34:50.460
to see things go fine in Georgia.
571
00:34:52.400 --> 00:34:53.900
Well, I'm sure glad to hear that.
572
00:34:54.719 --> 00:34:57.449
And I guess before I turn it over to Tim,
573
00:34:57.530 --> 00:35:00.829
I want to ask what, as you've dug in and
574
00:35:00.949 --> 00:35:04.929
looked around the country, what is the most surprising place
575
00:35:05.010 --> 00:35:09.489
to you where Democrats are going to, you know, shock
576
00:35:09.610 --> 00:35:14.639
the country or where Republicans somehow are remarkably holding on
577
00:35:14.760 --> 00:35:19.099
when local conditions feel like they shouldn't by all rights.
578
00:35:19.909 --> 00:35:22.670
Yeah, I mean, one thing I do in the forecast
579
00:35:22.710 --> 00:35:26.070
is try to explain, listen, if Democrats win those three
580
00:35:26.110 --> 00:35:29.650
and then pick up Ohio and Texas, that is not
581
00:35:29.690 --> 00:35:33.389
a blue wave. That is a blue tsunami, right? So
582
00:35:33.429 --> 00:35:37.190
it's a highly unexpected outcome. So I would say that
583
00:35:37.230 --> 00:35:40.449
those are unexpected outcomes. They are goals, but they are
584
00:35:40.550 --> 00:35:44.510
unexpected outcomes. Beyond that, I think probably the most surprising
585
00:35:44.570 --> 00:35:49.000
thing is how many other candidates are at least giving
586
00:35:49.019 --> 00:35:53.280
their Republican opponents a problem, right, where they have to
587
00:35:53.380 --> 00:35:57.460
invest resources. I mean, I'm working on a couple races
588
00:35:57.500 --> 00:35:59.360
in Pennsylvania, but one of them is a Trump plus
589
00:35:59.360 --> 00:36:02.340
13 district, and I think it's going to flip, right?
590
00:36:02.679 --> 00:36:05.510
So I think the takeaway on election night is going
591
00:36:05.530 --> 00:36:09.690
to be just how deep into deep red territory this
592
00:36:09.789 --> 00:36:11.630
backlash to Trump reaches.
593
00:36:13.210 --> 00:36:13.510
Wow.
594
00:36:13.829 --> 00:36:14.210
Okay.
595
00:36:14.349 --> 00:36:16.349
So I'm going to turn it over to Tim, but
596
00:36:16.429 --> 00:36:19.269
I want to tee up something for you and us
597
00:36:19.309 --> 00:36:19.889
to talk.
598
00:36:19.710 --> 00:36:23.349
About next time you're on. If we win in all.
599
00:36:23.250 --> 00:36:26.940
These unexpected places, how do we make sure we govern
600
00:36:27.019 --> 00:36:30.340
so they can get reelected? But in the meantime, back
601
00:36:30.380 --> 00:36:31.780
to now and over to Tim.
602
00:36:33.699 --> 00:36:34.780
Good evening, doctor.
603
00:36:34.860 --> 00:36:37.340
Thank you for being with us again. Good to have
604
00:36:37.380 --> 00:36:37.820
you on.
605
00:36:38.480 --> 00:36:39.619
Always good to be with y'all.
606
00:36:41.699 --> 00:36:48.610
So, recently I took a cross-country road trip. Ended up,
607
00:36:48.650 --> 00:36:51.610
as a matter of fact, in Seaside, Oregon, a place
608
00:36:51.690 --> 00:36:53.489
I'm sure you know very well.
609
00:36:53.909 --> 00:36:54.469
Oh, dude.
610
00:36:54.710 --> 00:36:55.610
Oh, my goodness.
611
00:36:56.469 --> 00:36:58.630
Went right through Portland on the way over there.
612
00:36:58.650 --> 00:37:01.840
But anyway, came up through the state of Idaho up
613
00:37:01.880 --> 00:37:05.199
to Coeur d'Alene and on the way back down through
614
00:37:05.239 --> 00:37:07.579
Boise City and in the southern part of the state.
615
00:37:07.599 --> 00:37:09.679
And I stopped at a couple of stores, talked to
616
00:37:09.699 --> 00:37:10.239
some people.
617
00:37:11.139 --> 00:37:14.500
And, you know, you quickly realize that you're not in
618
00:37:14.579 --> 00:37:20.159
Frank Church's Idaho anymore. I mean, it's obviously one of
619
00:37:20.199 --> 00:37:24.260
the reddest of red states, but yet I'm looking at
620
00:37:24.340 --> 00:37:30.840
some Senate race ratings, and the Senate race there is
621
00:37:31.000 --> 00:37:36.320
listed as lean Republican. Now, I've got to ask you,
622
00:37:36.699 --> 00:37:41.219
is that result of what's going on in the country,
623
00:37:41.739 --> 00:37:45.380
or is there something more local to that race that's
624
00:37:45.460 --> 00:37:46.920
causing it to be that close?
625
00:37:48.079 --> 00:37:52.900
No, it's purely the result of what's happening nationally. That's
626
00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:57.349
exactly it. And then the midterm effect is, like I
627
00:37:57.369 --> 00:38:01.989
always say, people want, you know, really to cling to
628
00:38:02.030 --> 00:38:05.570
this idea that all politics is local. Well, When you're
629
00:38:05.610 --> 00:38:09.070
engaging in a campaign, you want to have as local
630
00:38:09.429 --> 00:38:12.050
a presence as possible. And you do, if there's some
631
00:38:12.110 --> 00:38:14.849
local things, want to be talking about them, not in
632
00:38:14.889 --> 00:38:17.349
your paid advertising. What you want to be doing in
633
00:38:17.369 --> 00:38:21.989
your paid advertising is nationalizing the race, unless the national
634
00:38:22.030 --> 00:38:25.070
environment doesn't benefit you, which is why when you look
635
00:38:25.110 --> 00:38:28.760
at how Republicans are running, particularly Christine Drazen's ads, which
636
00:38:28.820 --> 00:38:31.079
I have the benefit of having to watch every night
637
00:38:31.119 --> 00:38:35.980
with the news, You know, it is about minimizing partisanship
638
00:38:36.000 --> 00:38:39.519
and running away from, you know, separating herself from the
639
00:38:39.579 --> 00:38:43.480
Republican Party. And you can only do that so well
640
00:38:43.699 --> 00:38:46.320
in a midterm environment. So we're going to see a
641
00:38:46.800 --> 00:38:49.780
midterm effect, I think, for the ages this cycle. And
642
00:38:49.800 --> 00:38:53.239
it may not be enough to flip a place like Idaho,
643
00:38:53.260 --> 00:38:55.699
but we're going to see margins that should scare the
644
00:38:55.739 --> 00:38:56.920
GOP pretty badly.
645
00:38:58.429 --> 00:38:58.840
Goodness.
646
00:38:59.559 --> 00:39:05.380
Well, another thing our Republican friends tried to do, unprecedented
647
00:39:05.440 --> 00:39:09.860
this year, was they conducted quite a bit of redistricting
648
00:39:09.980 --> 00:39:11.639
of congressional.
649
00:39:10.980 --> 00:39:14.519
Districts at the request of Donald Trump. A lot of
650
00:39:14.539 --> 00:39:15.599
them down south.
651
00:39:16.159 --> 00:39:23.300
A lot of them displaced African Americans. But your forecast
652
00:39:23.320 --> 00:39:29.969
is very bullish on major Democrat House gains. So did,
653
00:39:30.079 --> 00:39:34.880
that redistricting simply blow up in their faces or did
654
00:39:35.079 --> 00:39:39.489
it just not make enough difference considering the national landscape?
655
00:39:40.239 --> 00:39:42.289
Yeah, so it went wrong for them on two levels.
656
00:39:42.329 --> 00:39:44.530
Number one, in the forecast, I do talk about the
657
00:39:44.590 --> 00:39:47.489
redistricted seats and the gain loss that each party is
658
00:39:47.510 --> 00:39:49.949
going to make and where that puts us. So if
659
00:39:49.989 --> 00:39:52.409
you want to check that part out of the forecast,
660
00:39:52.449 --> 00:39:55.789
you can. But in terms of the redistricting, there's a
661
00:39:55.809 --> 00:39:59.309
couple of things. Number one, they've redistricted Texas with this
662
00:39:59.489 --> 00:40:03.250
idea that the Latino love of Republicans was something that
663
00:40:03.369 --> 00:40:07.800
actually was substantive when it was really just an out-party effect.
664
00:40:08.159 --> 00:40:10.380
And even if he hadn't been as bad as he was,
665
00:40:10.599 --> 00:40:14.340
that would have declined when Trump became president again. But
666
00:40:14.380 --> 00:40:17.420
the way that he has treated Latino people and like
667
00:40:17.460 --> 00:40:20.579
the economic stuff, too, it is just plummeted. I mean,
668
00:40:20.599 --> 00:40:24.280
his approval and Latino margins are going to be incredible,
669
00:40:24.420 --> 00:40:28.039
incredibly bad. I mean, and because they bleached out like
670
00:40:28.059 --> 00:40:30.260
so they were counting on a certain robust margin on
671
00:40:30.300 --> 00:40:33.300
Latino vote. And that means a couple of the districts
672
00:40:33.320 --> 00:40:35.739
that they thought they could pick up in Texas are
673
00:40:35.800 --> 00:40:40.860
problematic now. And in addition to that, California moved you know,
674
00:40:40.969 --> 00:40:45.389
got prop fit, the measure passed to redistrict, right? And
675
00:40:45.449 --> 00:40:49.210
Gavin Newsom's gerrymander is offsetting a few of the seat
676
00:40:49.250 --> 00:40:53.489
gains that they made by crushing the Voting Rights Act
677
00:40:53.530 --> 00:40:57.489
in the South, basically, right? And so, you know, in
678
00:40:57.570 --> 00:41:00.489
other words, it's kind of a wash. But like, last
679
00:41:00.650 --> 00:41:04.139
in the 2018 cycle, because the 2018 was the end
680
00:41:04.179 --> 00:41:08.400
of a census decade, okay? And And there had been
681
00:41:08.519 --> 00:41:12.420
so much in flight to southern places like Virginia, like Georgia,
682
00:41:12.840 --> 00:41:16.940
that I knew like the partisan scores we use on
683
00:41:17.000 --> 00:41:20.940
districts had been outdated. This cycle, the Democrats just have
684
00:41:20.960 --> 00:41:23.980
a very tough map to win the 20 that I
685
00:41:24.019 --> 00:41:26.579
think are going to flip. I said the core 20
686
00:41:26.579 --> 00:41:29.679
in the forecast are going to flip. Just those 20
687
00:41:29.679 --> 00:41:33.139
were in R plus positive territory. So there's no gimme
688
00:41:33.199 --> 00:41:36.400
races in this. set of House races. So if the
689
00:41:36.440 --> 00:41:41.769
Democrats pick up 20 or 30 seats, it's a massive performance.
690
00:41:44.030 --> 00:41:49.409
You mentioned Hispanics. Is the Hispanic.
691
00:41:48.650 --> 00:41:53.320
Support for Republicans collapsing? Is that universal? Is that happening
692
00:41:53.579 --> 00:41:54.480
all over the country?
693
00:41:54.519 --> 00:41:57.159
I know you were talking about Texas, but is it
694
00:41:57.219 --> 00:42:01.769
happening in other places, say, I don't know, Florida, for instance? Yes.
695
00:42:02.469 --> 00:42:05.300
Well, it's happening in other places except Florida. Why is
696
00:42:05.360 --> 00:42:09.960
Florida the exception? Because its Hispanic population is predominantly drawn
697
00:42:10.400 --> 00:42:16.699
from South America, whereas Texas, Arizona, that population tends to
698
00:42:16.739 --> 00:42:21.809
come from Mexico. And the Republican Party has been very
699
00:42:21.869 --> 00:42:24.769
good at branding the Democrats as socialist and communist for
700
00:42:24.809 --> 00:42:27.469
over a decade, and a lot of people have bought
701
00:42:27.550 --> 00:42:29.789
into that, right? So what we're going to see in
702
00:42:29.849 --> 00:42:34.150
Florida is a pullback of that community. Trump deported all
703
00:42:34.170 --> 00:42:38.920
of the Haitians and the Venezuelans, especially the Venezuelans. People
704
00:42:38.960 --> 00:42:42.219
aren't going to appreciate that in Florida. But it's still
705
00:42:42.619 --> 00:42:45.760
a million and a half voter registration in that state.
706
00:42:46.219 --> 00:42:49.110
So the governor's race is competitive because it has a
707
00:42:49.139 --> 00:42:53.550
nominee that in theory is able to pick up some support.
708
00:42:53.869 --> 00:42:56.030
I think we could see a really close governor's race,
709
00:42:56.090 --> 00:42:58.579
in fact. but the Senate race is off the table.
710
00:42:58.599 --> 00:43:05.320
Okay. So when I sat down at my television on
711
00:43:05.400 --> 00:43:10.420
election night, I'm going to be watching as my.
712
00:43:10.280 --> 00:43:12.269
Race to watch to see how we're.
713
00:43:12.119 --> 00:43:15.690
Doing the North Carolina Senate race, not for a win
714
00:43:15.730 --> 00:43:18.230
or a loss, but for how early.
715
00:43:18.489 --> 00:43:21.210
That race is calling. The reason for that.
716
00:43:21.349 --> 00:43:24.690
Is that has been drilled into my head by some
717
00:43:24.730 --> 00:43:29.619
of my friends and acquaintances over there that North Carolina
718
00:43:29.980 --> 00:43:34.039
is simply a purple state and most races are going
719
00:43:34.079 --> 00:43:38.030
to be very close. And I'm thinking, well, if they
720
00:43:38.090 --> 00:43:42.829
call this race early and it's something approaching double digits,
721
00:43:43.190 --> 00:43:46.730
we should be having a really good night around the country.
722
00:43:47.250 --> 00:43:50.309
So what are you going to be looking at? What
723
00:43:50.409 --> 00:43:52.530
race are you going to be looking at or what
724
00:43:52.670 --> 00:43:55.869
state are you going to be looking at as a
725
00:43:55.989 --> 00:43:59.250
bellwether to tell you what's going.
726
00:43:59.090 --> 00:43:59.949
On in the country.
727
00:44:00.710 --> 00:44:03.789
I mean, it's really just the eastern seaboard. The eastern
728
00:44:03.829 --> 00:44:08.889
coast polls tend to close at 7, and they're all
729
00:44:08.909 --> 00:44:11.019
going to pop at once. So it's not like there's
730
00:44:11.139 --> 00:44:13.760
one outlier that we're going to look at first, right?
731
00:44:14.039 --> 00:44:16.719
But you're exactly right. The size of the ease of
732
00:44:16.820 --> 00:44:20.539
victory in Pennsylvania for Shapiro and for Cooper in North
733
00:44:20.579 --> 00:44:23.659
Carolina are going to be good indications of the strength
734
00:44:24.019 --> 00:44:27.329
of that defection vote. But I'll be looking for my
735
00:44:27.369 --> 00:44:30.610
districts that are on the East Coast that are, you know,
736
00:44:30.769 --> 00:44:35.829
all of them are generally Republican positive districts. And, you know,
737
00:44:35.869 --> 00:44:38.269
we should know pretty early. And then, you know, like
738
00:44:38.429 --> 00:44:40.769
what we've learned, too, is you're not going to get
739
00:44:41.309 --> 00:44:44.940
vote tallies out of California for a week. I don't
740
00:44:44.960 --> 00:44:45.599
know why.
741
00:44:46.099 --> 00:44:47.300
I don't know why.
742
00:44:47.699 --> 00:44:50.340
Because in Oregon, we have all vote by mail and
743
00:44:50.440 --> 00:44:51.800
we've never had that problem.
744
00:44:51.860 --> 00:44:51.980
But.
745
00:44:52.380 --> 00:44:55.070
It's going to take them time to count the ballots, apparently. So,
746
00:44:55.690 --> 00:44:59.530
you know, we won't have certainty. And then, you know, Texas,
747
00:44:59.769 --> 00:45:02.510
that's central time. So, I mean, I'll be looking at
748
00:45:02.530 --> 00:45:05.070
those East Coast races. And I don't think, okay, we've
749
00:45:05.090 --> 00:45:05.929
got Susan.
750
00:45:05.650 --> 00:45:06.670
Collins in Maine.
751
00:45:06.690 --> 00:45:10.920
You've got the North Carolina Center race and the Ossoffs margin.
752
00:45:10.940 --> 00:45:12.099
I'll be looking at that as well.
753
00:45:13.719 --> 00:45:16.739
All right. And I'm going to make my last question
754
00:45:16.780 --> 00:45:20.380
about Susan Collins because I don't know how many.
755
00:45:20.139 --> 00:45:23.730
Cycles, three or the last four at least.
756
00:45:24.550 --> 00:45:27.369
I thought, well, we finally are going to get her
757
00:45:27.449 --> 00:45:31.559
this year. And time after time, she has prevailed sometimes
758
00:45:31.659 --> 00:45:36.599
rather easily. Can she survive this wave or is this
759
00:45:36.699 --> 00:45:37.519
finally the year?
760
00:45:38.380 --> 00:45:41.610
If there's anyone that can survive the wave other than
761
00:45:41.650 --> 00:45:45.409
Lisa Murkowski, it would be Susan Collins. And Lisa's not up, right?
762
00:45:45.809 --> 00:45:49.610
So it would be Susan Collins, right? I mean, it's frustrating,
763
00:45:49.650 --> 00:45:52.880
but at least this time, all the fundamentals are right again,
764
00:45:53.340 --> 00:45:57.360
like in 18 or 20 or whenever Sarah Gideon must
765
00:45:57.380 --> 00:46:01.719
have lost in 2020. Yep, in 2020, right? Out-party fundamentals,
766
00:46:02.260 --> 00:46:04.730
and yet they couldn't take her out. The only difference,
767
00:46:04.829 --> 00:46:07.309
and then, of course, we have that nominee problem, right?
768
00:46:07.329 --> 00:46:10.139
So you have The guy with the Nazi tattoos, and
769
00:46:10.159 --> 00:46:14.949
the new guy coming in, and the new guy is
770
00:46:15.110 --> 00:46:18.409
not particularly charismatic, but whatever, right? At least he doesn't
771
00:46:18.429 --> 00:46:20.869
have Nazi tattoos, and the race is about Susan Collins.
772
00:46:20.889 --> 00:46:24.789
That's all I ever wanted in Maine was for someone
773
00:46:24.829 --> 00:46:28.489
to make a strategy that was focused on her, okay?
774
00:46:28.869 --> 00:46:32.739
And undermining her brand as a moderate, because she has
775
00:46:32.940 --> 00:46:37.500
a 95% voting record with Trump, and when it really matters...
776
00:46:37.590 --> 00:46:42.469
every time she votes for fascism, right? So, you know,
777
00:46:42.510 --> 00:46:45.480
we really at least have run the right strategy this
778
00:46:45.539 --> 00:46:48.059
time around, and we'll have to see what happens. But
779
00:46:48.179 --> 00:46:51.719
there's no way we can look at polling in anywhere, anywhere,
780
00:46:51.739 --> 00:46:53.929
but polling, you know, I would advise you not to
781
00:46:53.949 --> 00:46:57.590
be focused on because, you know, Oregon governor is not
782
00:46:57.630 --> 00:46:59.849
competitive at all. But if you look at the polling,
783
00:46:59.889 --> 00:47:02.190
it looks like it's competitive, right? So that should tell
784
00:47:02.230 --> 00:47:05.889
you something's weird about polling. And so we can't trust
785
00:47:05.929 --> 00:47:08.269
the Collins polling. We had her up, I think her
786
00:47:08.289 --> 00:47:11.269
opponent was up like nine in 2020, and then still
787
00:47:11.369 --> 00:47:13.929
Collins not only wins it, but wins it big, right?
788
00:47:14.429 --> 00:47:17.159
So we really, I'll believe it when we see it
789
00:47:17.239 --> 00:47:20.860
on Texas, on Maine, on Alaska. I want these things
790
00:47:20.920 --> 00:47:22.880
to happen really bad, and I try not to let
791
00:47:22.940 --> 00:47:26.639
those preferences cloud my analysis. You know, I want to
792
00:47:26.679 --> 00:47:32.269
be right even more. So, you know, but if not now,
793
00:47:32.570 --> 00:47:33.670
never on Collins.
794
00:47:33.710 --> 00:47:33.869
Yeah.
795
00:47:36.110 --> 00:47:36.969
Well, Dr.
796
00:47:36.989 --> 00:47:41.050
Bittercoffer, your analysis that you mentioned is among the best
797
00:47:41.469 --> 00:47:44.389
that I hear in every cycle, and I always seek
798
00:47:44.449 --> 00:47:47.610
you out, even when you don't know that I'm reading.
799
00:47:47.750 --> 00:47:50.690
I'm there doing it anyway. And with that, I'm going
800
00:47:50.710 --> 00:47:53.210
to send it back to David.
801
00:47:54.130 --> 00:47:58.489
Yes, completely echo what Tim said, and let's leave with this.
802
00:47:59.070 --> 00:48:03.369
You have the Substack Recycle. I also follow you on Twitter.
803
00:48:03.409 --> 00:48:08.159
That's why I know you know, your passion for Oregon football,
804
00:48:08.179 --> 00:48:11.400
where you're not writing that about the cycle. So tell
805
00:48:11.480 --> 00:48:13.800
our listeners where they can read you between now and
806
00:48:13.840 --> 00:48:16.280
election day and then even after when you're going to
807
00:48:16.300 --> 00:48:17.579
tell us what happened.
808
00:48:18.219 --> 00:48:21.449
Yeah, I mean, I want people to understand we're going
809
00:48:21.469 --> 00:48:24.550
to go through some things now. The first two years
810
00:48:24.650 --> 00:48:27.610
were not great with Trump, but they are tame compared
811
00:48:27.650 --> 00:48:30.309
to what's coming next, okay? And so if you want
812
00:48:30.329 --> 00:48:32.280
to stay ahead of all that and you want to
813
00:48:32.539 --> 00:48:36.340
understand it, then you should subscribe to the cycle on
814
00:48:36.389 --> 00:48:39.559
sub stack. That's my site, my, um, where I do
815
00:48:39.599 --> 00:48:42.179
my analysis. I put out at least once a piece,
816
00:48:42.260 --> 00:48:44.480
one piece a week. I don't, I go for quality
817
00:48:44.559 --> 00:48:47.360
over quantity. So you're not getting a bunch of stuff
818
00:48:47.400 --> 00:48:50.199
in the inbox. And if you can support me with
819
00:48:50.239 --> 00:48:52.670
a paid subscription, I run the sub stack, like a
820
00:48:52.690 --> 00:48:56.309
PBS model where people who want to support my work can,
821
00:48:56.349 --> 00:48:58.170
and then people who need to read the work and
822
00:48:58.190 --> 00:49:02.349
don't have the money can also by not having it paywall. So, um,
823
00:49:03.119 --> 00:49:05.150
And that's where they can find my stuff. I highly
824
00:49:05.230 --> 00:49:07.809
recommend it. We're going to be going through some things
825
00:49:07.829 --> 00:49:08.909
these next two years.
826
00:49:11.050 --> 00:49:14.820
Yes. Well, thank you so much. And, you know, work hard,
827
00:49:14.860 --> 00:49:17.480
but pace yourself between now and Election Day.
828
00:49:18.260 --> 00:49:18.639
You too.
829
00:49:20.369 --> 00:49:22.090
All right.
830
00:49:23.199 --> 00:49:27.619
Go dogs, go ducks. I said go dogs, go ducks.
831
00:49:28.679 --> 00:49:29.099
Yes.
832
00:49:29.239 --> 00:49:30.980
Well, thanks for joining us this evening.
833
00:49:31.659 --> 00:49:32.820
Thank you so much for having me.
834
00:49:32.840 --> 00:49:34.440
All right.
835
00:49:34.920 --> 00:49:37.840
That was Dr. Rachel Bitterkofer. And in our final segment,
836
00:49:37.860 --> 00:49:42.199
it'll just be Wendy, Tim, and I going over Alabama,
837
00:49:43.030 --> 00:49:46.389
some interesting things were said by their, I guess he's
838
00:49:46.409 --> 00:49:50.570
their senior senator now, possibly future governor, but we'll do
839
00:49:50.610 --> 00:49:58.309
that in the final segment on the Internet Only podcast. Hi,
840
00:49:58.349 --> 00:50:00.929
welcome back to our final segment. In our final segment,
841
00:50:00.949 --> 00:50:02.829
we're going to get back to our kudzu vine roots
842
00:50:02.869 --> 00:50:08.449
where we talk about one southern state, essentially one southern topic.
843
00:50:09.050 --> 00:50:11.429
And that state's going to be the yellow hammer state
844
00:50:11.550 --> 00:50:14.789
next door to us, even next door to UTM. You're
845
00:50:14.809 --> 00:50:17.579
just now north of it. We're to the east of it.
846
00:50:17.590 --> 00:50:20.409
But that would be Alabama. And we'll kind of go
847
00:50:20.449 --> 00:50:23.139
through a few facets of this. But this past week,
848
00:50:23.920 --> 00:50:29.659
their governor's candidate was not doing his governor candidate business.
849
00:50:29.760 --> 00:50:32.639
He was worrying about something, I guess we might just say,
850
00:50:32.860 --> 00:50:38.150
far greater than anything happening possibly in Alabama. And that
851
00:50:38.190 --> 00:50:43.260
would be Apparently, throughout our airline industry, we have a
852
00:50:43.440 --> 00:50:48.340
rampant furry problem. Now, that doesn't mean that gerbils and
853
00:50:48.440 --> 00:50:53.099
squirrels and everything else are on the loose. That means
854
00:50:53.179 --> 00:50:59.099
that apparently the pilots and flight attendants and other personnel
855
00:50:59.579 --> 00:51:02.340
are into the furry culture, at least a few of them.
856
00:51:02.400 --> 00:51:05.920
That's folks that like to dress up in costumes and
857
00:51:05.960 --> 00:51:08.780
then do other things. But once again... This would be
858
00:51:08.800 --> 00:51:13.420
between consenting adults on their own private time, not putting
859
00:51:13.440 --> 00:51:17.559
the thing on autopilot. So it was such a weird,
860
00:51:17.820 --> 00:51:23.250
bizarre thing to even discuss on the Senate floor. Wendy,
861
00:51:23.429 --> 00:51:26.570
what in the world is Tommy Tuberville thinking?
862
00:51:28.469 --> 00:51:38.150
He is reaching into the... playbook if we will use
863
00:51:38.190 --> 00:51:43.449
that analogy right of you know random things to say
864
00:51:43.550 --> 00:51:47.869
for 200 alex um you know the the kitty litter
865
00:51:47.889 --> 00:51:51.449
stuff people have brought up in schools that you know
866
00:51:51.469 --> 00:51:53.659
that's the next thing that we need to be worried
867
00:51:53.699 --> 00:51:58.079
about ruining our students so not only does he accuse
868
00:51:58.719 --> 00:52:02.280
the pilots and maybe the flight attendants but he even
869
00:52:02.320 --> 00:52:08.170
goes after the air traffic controllers and it was so
870
00:52:08.230 --> 00:52:10.530
funny because when that story came out I mean it's
871
00:52:10.570 --> 00:52:16.429
not funny really because it's you know it's perverse fascination
872
00:52:16.510 --> 00:52:19.599
right and I love the people who found photos of
873
00:52:19.639 --> 00:52:21.500
him then with mascots.
874
00:52:20.900 --> 00:52:22.639
Who of course are furries right.
875
00:52:26.139 --> 00:52:30.679
Have the look of furries right but it's just again
876
00:52:30.760 --> 00:52:33.710
it's more distraction it's trying to.
877
00:52:34.420 --> 00:52:37.659
Stir people up. I wouldn't even call it red.
878
00:52:37.530 --> 00:52:40.590
Meat because it's so odd that most people don't even
879
00:52:40.630 --> 00:52:43.989
know what he's talking about. I probably wouldn't have even
880
00:52:44.030 --> 00:52:47.150
known if I hadn't seen some CSI episode years.
881
00:52:46.989 --> 00:52:48.969
Ago where they had like a.
882
00:52:49.030 --> 00:52:55.449
Furries convention or something where somebody died. But it's ridiculousness
883
00:52:55.909 --> 00:53:00.130
and I really think that Doug Jones is making a
884
00:53:00.170 --> 00:53:04.250
great case over there in Alabama. Again, he's got He's
885
00:53:04.590 --> 00:53:09.239
plowing uphill, if that's even an analogy. But it's a tough,
886
00:53:09.260 --> 00:53:15.239
tough state. But Tuberville just every day, every week, every
887
00:53:15.320 --> 00:53:17.880
month shows how ignorant he is.
888
00:53:17.900 --> 00:53:20.739
I can't remember somebody else with.
889
00:53:20.590 --> 00:53:22.449
Yesterday said, I don't even know how he won a
890
00:53:22.510 --> 00:53:25.630
single ball game as a coach of a team because
891
00:53:25.690 --> 00:53:31.320
he just lacks intelligence and certainly lacks... the kind of
892
00:53:31.340 --> 00:53:33.699
character we'd like to see in what's supposed to be
893
00:53:33.739 --> 00:53:35.480
the august body of the U.S.
894
00:53:35.500 --> 00:53:38.460
Senate. Tim, do you see it differently?
895
00:53:38.480 --> 00:53:41.079
Well, Tim, I was going to ask you, I've got
896
00:53:41.139 --> 00:53:46.590
two theories on this. Do you think that, A, Tommy
897
00:53:46.619 --> 00:53:49.130
Tubber will say, you know, I'm not getting made fun
898
00:53:49.210 --> 00:53:54.550
of enough on The Daily Show, on Jimmy Kimmel, on other,
899
00:53:54.730 --> 00:53:58.469
you know, satire political shows, or he said, you know,
900
00:53:59.210 --> 00:54:02.510
I just need to give Doug Jones some material to
901
00:54:02.570 --> 00:54:06.869
attack me to show how unqualified I am. Which one
902
00:54:06.889 --> 00:54:07.849
of those do you think it is?
903
00:54:08.550 --> 00:54:13.250
Well, I think it's option three because let me tell
904
00:54:13.329 --> 00:54:16.269
you how this fool came around to doing what he
905
00:54:16.329 --> 00:54:16.969
was doing.
906
00:54:18.349 --> 00:54:19.630
Wendy alluded to it.
907
00:54:19.730 --> 00:54:23.780
There's a group of devoted folks in the country. I
908
00:54:23.800 --> 00:54:29.320
don't know how many, but they are interested in anthropomorphic animals.
909
00:54:29.920 --> 00:54:36.219
Those are fictional animals that act like humans. That's a furry. Now,
910
00:54:36.280 --> 00:54:39.360
why did he go after pilots? Well, back in April,
911
00:54:39.949 --> 00:54:44.309
a couple of pilots were fooling around on their radios
912
00:54:44.530 --> 00:54:48.730
in some downtime, and they were actually meowing and barking
913
00:54:48.849 --> 00:54:52.650
at each other. Well, the FAA did not take kindly
914
00:54:52.710 --> 00:54:57.489
to that, and they castigated the two gentlemen for using
915
00:54:57.659 --> 00:55:04.199
non-essential language on their frequencies. But There is no evidence
916
00:55:04.260 --> 00:55:07.119
that it had anything at all to do with what
917
00:55:07.179 --> 00:55:11.300
Tuberwood was talking about, even though he went to railing
918
00:55:11.500 --> 00:55:15.530
about the airline industry. And he, of course, provided not
919
00:55:15.789 --> 00:55:18.309
one shred of evidence to his claim that a bunch
920
00:55:18.349 --> 00:55:24.929
of airline workers participate in this furry thing. And so
921
00:55:25.050 --> 00:55:28.030
on the 22nd, he gets on the Senate floor of
922
00:55:28.190 --> 00:55:32.389
all places and starts talking, talks about a furry culture,
923
00:55:32.530 --> 00:55:36.269
a rise in gender confusion. And with the pilots, he said, Lord,
924
00:55:36.329 --> 00:55:39.650
help us. It's terrifying when you think about this, that
925
00:55:39.690 --> 00:55:44.139
somebody just flying your plane might be a furry and
926
00:55:44.159 --> 00:55:49.039
just all kind of just lunacy that had nothing to
927
00:55:49.119 --> 00:55:55.159
do with anything. You know, he has a reputation as
928
00:55:55.280 --> 00:56:00.679
being the dumbest member of the Senate. And this guy
929
00:56:00.820 --> 00:56:05.550
wants to be governor. I want to address one more thing, David.
930
00:56:05.610 --> 00:56:09.489
You were talking about what's going on in the governor's
931
00:56:09.570 --> 00:56:12.250
race over there. Well, you know Trump's going to Mobile.
932
00:56:13.570 --> 00:56:19.460
There is some concern, apparently, by Alabama Republicans about a
933
00:56:19.940 --> 00:56:26.340
lack of enthusiasm and about turnout, which was obviously just anemic,
934
00:56:26.869 --> 00:56:30.130
like 5% in some places over there in the primary,
935
00:56:30.469 --> 00:56:34.769
and they hope a Trump rally can boost turnout and
936
00:56:34.809 --> 00:56:40.489
help their candidates, including him. So that's what all this
937
00:56:40.610 --> 00:56:43.920
craziness was about, and he just looked like a fool
938
00:56:43.980 --> 00:56:48.340
and provided great grist for the late-night comics and others.
939
00:56:50.079 --> 00:56:52.000
Yeah, and you kind of alluded to that next thing
940
00:56:52.119 --> 00:56:55.380
is the governor's race there.
941
00:56:56.420 --> 00:56:56.619
Right.
942
00:56:57.079 --> 00:57:00.360
You know, Alabama's a pretty Republican state. The last time
943
00:57:00.400 --> 00:57:08.030
they've elected a Democratic governor was 1998 with– his name's
944
00:57:08.110 --> 00:57:10.829
even escaping me, but I remember he was a big
945
00:57:10.929 --> 00:57:12.650
pro– Siegelman.
946
00:57:13.690 --> 00:57:14.730
Governor Siegelman.
947
00:57:15.289 --> 00:57:17.510
He won, and I think they've had a few wins
948
00:57:17.590 --> 00:57:21.440
here and there, little Jim Folsom. won a statewide office.
949
00:57:21.500 --> 00:57:25.139
I think Roy Sparks stayed in office a lot longer.
950
00:57:25.460 --> 00:57:28.360
But by and large, pretty Republican state. They have two
951
00:57:28.420 --> 00:57:32.949
Republican senators, the other which Katie Britt at least has
952
00:57:32.969 --> 00:57:38.110
the good sense not to talk about furries. Therefore, you
953
00:57:38.190 --> 00:57:42.590
have this race that shouldn't be close, but in a
954
00:57:42.769 --> 00:57:46.789
cycle like this, with a candidate that you have to
955
00:57:46.869 --> 00:57:51.730
know that everybody outside of the hardcore Republicans know is
956
00:57:51.989 --> 00:57:55.429
not the best and brightest that they can put out.
957
00:57:55.809 --> 00:57:58.489
It might honestly be the best and brightest or not
958
00:57:58.530 --> 00:58:01.670
the best and brightest that Florida puts out, because he's
959
00:58:01.710 --> 00:58:06.849
got some residency issues. Apparently, his homestead exemption is in Florida.
960
00:58:07.150 --> 00:58:09.130
So there's a lot of different things that could make
961
00:58:09.170 --> 00:58:12.769
this race possibly closer. And then we see that Donald Trump,
962
00:58:12.829 --> 00:58:15.619
as they've lined up some rallies, And I will say
963
00:58:15.980 --> 00:58:18.920
the rallies are in Oklahoma. Now there's rumors of some
964
00:58:19.019 --> 00:58:22.699
Florida rallies. And, Wendy, I want to ask you, is
965
00:58:22.739 --> 00:58:25.670
this more of a sign that Alabama could really be
966
00:58:25.730 --> 00:58:29.949
in play, or is it just they want to give
967
00:58:30.530 --> 00:58:34.090
Donald Trump some layup rallies, like let's send him to
968
00:58:34.199 --> 00:58:37.679
states where we know Republicans will win and he can
969
00:58:37.860 --> 00:58:40.940
claim he was the magic X factor? Which one do
970
00:58:40.960 --> 00:58:41.500
you think it is?
971
00:58:43.130 --> 00:58:47.400
I think they don't want to send him to States
972
00:58:47.559 --> 00:58:50.119
where they are suddenly closer than they ought to be,
973
00:58:52.079 --> 00:58:56.059
which is, you know, a corollary to your second theory
974
00:58:56.099 --> 00:59:00.280
there of, you know, just let him go someplace nice
975
00:59:00.360 --> 00:59:02.789
and sweet where people will still cheer for him and
976
00:59:02.889 --> 00:59:04.349
he might can fill up an arena.
977
00:59:07.690 --> 00:59:08.530
That's my thinking.
978
00:59:08.590 --> 00:59:12.269
I mean, he, like some people have figured out that
979
00:59:12.409 --> 00:59:16.340
an approval rating below 30%.
980
00:59:15.030 --> 00:59:17.719
Is not good. And that's not who you want to
981
00:59:17.760 --> 00:59:19.019
bring to your state.
982
00:59:20.619 --> 00:59:20.860
Yeah.
983
00:59:20.960 --> 00:59:24.480
Yeah. I mean, we'll see. It's going to be interesting
984
00:59:24.500 --> 00:59:27.679
because if this wave is as massive as people are
985
00:59:27.719 --> 00:59:32.519
talking about it, and you have such a candidate quality disparity,
986
00:59:33.219 --> 00:59:36.210
you could see an Alabama in play if turnout is
987
00:59:36.269 --> 00:59:39.630
depressed and everything else. And that would be a bit
988
00:59:39.670 --> 00:59:43.230
of a shocker. But, I mean, it could be. And honestly,
989
00:59:43.250 --> 00:59:47.730
you know, we've seen states like Matt Bevin in Kentucky
990
00:59:47.769 --> 00:59:49.860
where he was such a Republican state, but he was
991
00:59:49.969 --> 00:59:54.480
such a bad governor, he lost his reelection campaign. We
992
00:59:54.579 --> 01:00:01.519
saw in Kansas, Chris Kovach. He was so toxic that
993
01:00:02.099 --> 01:00:05.260
they elected a Democrat. And I think even if somehow
994
01:00:05.320 --> 01:00:09.559
Tommy Tuberville gets in there, if he doesn't hire a
995
01:00:09.599 --> 01:00:11.840
lot of people that know what they're doing and just
996
01:00:12.000 --> 01:00:15.780
stay out of the way, I guess put it on autopilot,
997
01:00:15.860 --> 01:00:18.190
so to speak. But if he carries on and does
998
01:00:18.230 --> 01:00:22.090
a lot of his routine like this first thing, he
999
01:00:22.170 --> 01:00:25.559
could put a state in Alabama on. in play, even
1000
01:00:25.599 --> 01:00:29.400
in a more Republican year, just because he's so overmatched
1001
01:00:29.420 --> 01:00:29.960
for the job.
1002
01:00:30.219 --> 01:00:30.510
Tim?
1003
01:00:30.840 --> 01:00:34.090
Let me remind y'all of something, Alabama.
1004
01:00:35.670 --> 01:00:39.349
What happened in the special election over there in the U.S.
1005
01:00:39.389 --> 01:00:42.230
Senate race, Roy Moore.
1006
01:00:42.489 --> 01:00:46.199
Was just such a horrible candidate.
1007
01:00:47.619 --> 01:00:51.719
That we had an upset. And who beat him?
1008
01:00:52.099 --> 01:00:55.420
Well, the guy that's running for governor as a Democrat
1009
01:00:55.500 --> 01:00:59.519
right now. I think there might be a little something
1010
01:01:00.019 --> 01:01:03.000
to this rally the troops story.
1011
01:01:03.010 --> 01:01:04.550
Of Trump going over there.
1012
01:01:05.650 --> 01:01:09.730
I think their internal polling might be showing this race
1013
01:01:10.150 --> 01:01:14.329
as being pretty close because we really ran the best
1014
01:01:14.449 --> 01:01:19.090
candidate we could run. And they are running possibly the
1015
01:01:19.130 --> 01:01:20.110
worst candidate.
1016
01:01:20.460 --> 01:01:21.619
That they could find.
1017
01:01:22.469 --> 01:01:25.690
And in this toxic atmosphere, it's got to make it
1018
01:01:25.730 --> 01:01:27.650
a close race, doesn't it, David?
1019
01:01:28.530 --> 01:01:30.829
Yeah, I mean, you said for years now you can't
1020
01:01:30.869 --> 01:01:35.760
beat somebody with nobody. Well, we picked the somebody, the
1021
01:01:35.800 --> 01:01:39.059
last guy to win a statewide race. And, you know,
1022
01:01:39.099 --> 01:01:44.139
he ran against a really toxic candidate, but Tommy Tuberville's
1023
01:01:44.179 --> 01:01:47.489
a different kind of toxic. He doesn't have the the
1024
01:01:47.710 --> 01:01:53.369
baggage that Roy Moore had in the past, but he's
1025
01:01:53.590 --> 01:01:57.409
so unfit for the job as far as qualifications. I mean,
1026
01:01:57.869 --> 01:02:01.550
I tell my students in class, people need to look
1027
01:02:01.630 --> 01:02:05.559
at voting for candidates like hiring a job. You look
1028
01:02:05.599 --> 01:02:09.780
at a resume, you do the interview, you see the qualifications.
1029
01:02:10.340 --> 01:02:14.099
If you put all the people in Alabama up, I
1030
01:02:14.139 --> 01:02:17.210
just don't think Tommy Tuberville will make it past the
1031
01:02:17.250 --> 01:02:20.070
first cut. And that's cut, say, a quarter of the
1032
01:02:20.110 --> 01:02:23.309
state out. Because one, he might be in Florida when
1033
01:02:23.329 --> 01:02:26.829
it happened, but he's just not up for the job.
1034
01:02:27.030 --> 01:02:29.909
And I'm not saying this is all Republicans are not
1035
01:02:29.949 --> 01:02:33.929
up for the job. Their current governor, Kay Ivey, understands
1036
01:02:34.050 --> 01:02:39.090
things about governing. Katie Britt understands things about governing. Tommy
1037
01:02:39.110 --> 01:02:40.090
Tuberville doesn't.
1038
01:02:40.949 --> 01:02:41.340
Right.
1039
01:02:41.360 --> 01:02:42.179
Right.
1040
01:02:42.980 --> 01:02:43.219
Yeah.
1041
01:02:43.480 --> 01:02:45.840
Well, Wendy, do you want the last word on this
1042
01:02:45.900 --> 01:02:47.079
or anything else to add?
1043
01:02:49.340 --> 01:02:53.579
Yeah, go Dougie. Let's have some Dougie Fresh. You know,
1044
01:02:53.639 --> 01:02:57.320
he's doing the grassroots thing. He's got social media going,
1045
01:02:57.840 --> 01:03:00.809
and he happens to be a great human being, and
1046
01:03:01.929 --> 01:03:04.210
maybe that can matter. Yeah.
1047
01:03:04.639 --> 01:03:10.610
Hey, pollsters, don't poll Pennsylvania again. Poll Alabama's governor. Don't
1048
01:03:10.670 --> 01:03:14.849
do the umpteenth poll of Texas. Texas is fascinating, but
1049
01:03:14.869 --> 01:03:18.389
we don't need three polls every other day. Poll Alabama.
1050
01:03:18.409 --> 01:03:20.789
Let's see if there's any smoke here and see what's
1051
01:03:20.829 --> 01:03:24.260
going on. Well, thanks again to Dr. Rachel Bitticoff for
1052
01:03:24.280 --> 01:03:27.039
coming on the show. And next week, we're excited about
1053
01:03:27.099 --> 01:03:29.840
our guest, somebody we hadn't had in a while, but man,
1054
01:03:29.860 --> 01:03:34.510
do we still get downloads on this show. This guest,
1055
01:03:34.889 --> 01:03:38.300
Sherry Jacobus, is going to be our guest next week
1056
01:03:38.400 --> 01:03:41.780
on the show talking about the upcoming elections. Until then,
1057
01:03:41.800 --> 01:03:42.659
it's been the Kudzu Vine.
1058
01:03:43.789 --> 01:03:44.510
Good night, guys.
1059
01:03:45.610 --> 01:03:46.150
Night, everybody.
1060
01:03:46.170 --> 01:03:47.150
Night.