WEBVTT
00:00:00.479 --> 00:00:01.840
Welcome to This Week in Focus.
00:00:01.919 --> 00:00:12.160
I'm Jeremy Saffron, and we're wrapping up an incredible week here on the floor at the Rule Symposium, the beautiful Boca Raton Resort in Florida, a resort that is uh stunning, by the way.
00:00:12.320 --> 00:00:22.559
Now, before anything else, a quick thank you to every guest who sat down with us and to everyone who came up this week just to say hello and to shake a hand and to tell us that Kitco is meant to you.
00:00:22.719 --> 00:00:23.760
That means more than you know.
00:00:23.839 --> 00:00:26.000
And let me say one more thing that I don't get to say often.
00:00:26.160 --> 00:00:29.359
Kitco News remains an independent news organization.
00:00:29.440 --> 00:00:36.560
And in a business full of people selling something, we answer to you, the viewer, and to the facts, not the sponsor, not the stock.
00:00:36.719 --> 00:00:44.240
And as a journalist, that independence is the thing that I'm proudest of, and it's why these conversations you're about to hear can be as honest as they are.
00:00:44.399 --> 00:00:46.640
So here's what stuck with me this week.
00:00:46.719 --> 00:00:51.920
Now, gold ran to the moon, then corrected hard, and it split this room right down the middle.
00:00:52.079 --> 00:00:53.280
Let me show you.
00:00:55.679 --> 00:01:00.560
All right, I start with the man whose name is on the building here, Rick Rule.
00:01:00.799 --> 00:01:03.359
I asked him about the mood after this correction.
00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:09.439
Asking me about the mood at my conference around natural resources is like going to an evangelical church.
00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:11.200
You're asking the choir if they believe in God.
00:01:11.359 --> 00:01:11.920
Yeah, that's true.
00:01:12.159 --> 00:01:13.439
Okay, let me ask you a different way.
00:01:13.599 --> 00:01:16.159
Are they are people greedy or are they scared right now?
00:01:16.400 --> 00:01:17.120
No, people are greedy.
00:01:17.200 --> 00:01:17.280
Yeah.
00:01:17.439 --> 00:01:18.079
People are greedy.
00:01:18.159 --> 00:01:20.719
Now, understand that this audience has been conditioned.
00:01:21.200 --> 00:01:26.159
We've taught them to learn, to know that soft markets are sales.
00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:29.840
But talk to the people who manage the money, and you hear the opposite.
00:01:30.000 --> 00:01:32.799
Here's veteran value investor Adrian Day.
00:01:33.040 --> 00:01:48.959
The negative sentiment on gold equities among the broader investment public right now is, and I say this literally, the worst sentiment I have ever seen in my 50 years managing money in any sector at any time.
00:01:49.359 --> 00:01:56.159
But one day, two weeks ago, one day, two weeks ago, we actually had zero bullish.
00:01:56.560 --> 00:02:01.680
Okay, a greedy room, and the most washed out sentiment in a 50-year veteran has ever seen.
00:02:01.920 --> 00:02:04.400
And Day was honest about the risk too.
00:02:04.560 --> 00:02:10.560
He told me gold could break its last low and fall towards 3,600 before this is done.
00:02:40.000 --> 00:02:41.039
So you know that's different.
00:02:41.120 --> 00:02:43.360
We're finding central banks continuing to buy.
00:02:46.719 --> 00:02:49.280
She says that the price itself is the signal.
00:02:49.520 --> 00:02:54.560
You've got to understand a rise in gold price is an indication of a failing currency.
00:02:54.800 --> 00:03:01.039
And if you get that, once you get that, well, frankly, you start to make different choices.
00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:07.199
You need to think about gold and silver as money and not a trade.
00:03:07.439 --> 00:03:16.479
And from a true insider, former Goldman and Bear Stearns uh banker Nomi Prinz, a contrarian read on the Fed that cuts against this week's headlines.
00:03:16.719 --> 00:03:22.879
I think ultimately the Fed will have to reduce rates in order for us to service our debt.
00:03:22.960 --> 00:03:32.080
I think that Kevin Warsh is waiting, but by being non-forward guiding, he actually has more flexibility to move rates.
00:03:32.159 --> 00:03:35.360
And I read that as flexibility to reduce rates.
00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:38.719
Now, whether or not she's right, her longer point stuck with me.
00:03:39.039 --> 00:03:47.919
She uh since I guess the early 90s, she says uh$100 in cash has lost 60% of its value, while the real assets did the opposite.
00:03:48.159 --> 00:03:48.479
All right.
00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:51.759
Now no metal ran harder or fell harder than silver.
00:03:51.840 --> 00:03:56.080
It hit$121 this year, then got cut by roughly a half.
00:03:56.240 --> 00:04:01.039
Now I asked the loudest silver bull in the world, Keith Nurmeyer, what that correction really was.
00:04:01.280 --> 00:04:04.719
So the whole system was really on the verge of breaking.
00:04:04.960 --> 00:04:08.000
And on where silver should trade, forget the old ratios.
00:04:08.080 --> 00:04:09.360
He watches a different one.
00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:45.839
And he's blunt about why he'll bet on it over the trade dominating every other channel.
00:04:46.079 --> 00:04:48.959
People ask me here at the conference, well, what do you think of NVIDIA?
00:04:49.279 --> 00:04:50.720
The truth is I don't think of it at all.
00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:51.920
I can't spell it.
00:04:52.480 --> 00:04:53.920
I understand copper.
00:05:02.240 --> 00:05:06.399
And if there's one theme this week, it wasn't a price target, it was discipline.
00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:10.000
Adrian Day's rule for surviving a market this volatile.
00:05:10.240 --> 00:05:15.040
Well, I think one would be, and and this sounds one is know yourself.
00:05:15.199 --> 00:05:15.360
Yeah.
00:05:15.680 --> 00:05:17.680
And one is know what you're investing in.
00:05:17.920 --> 00:05:19.120
Know yourself.
00:05:19.439 --> 00:05:28.000
I can't tell you how many people when I talk to them to when they're opening an account and I talk to them, oh yeah, I'm I'm fine, I'm a long-term investor.
00:05:28.160 --> 00:05:29.519
I'm a long-term investor.
00:05:29.680 --> 00:05:31.519
Oh yeah, I'm fine with volatility.
00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:33.360
I can stand volatility, don't worry.
00:05:33.519 --> 00:05:37.519
Nobody, nobody, nobody has ever come to me and said, I'm a nervous Nelly.
00:05:37.920 --> 00:05:38.639
Nobody.
00:05:38.959 --> 00:05:40.160
So that's the first thing.
00:05:40.399 --> 00:05:43.279
Look in the mirror and really know yourself.
00:05:43.519 --> 00:05:51.920
If you cannot tolerate volatility, you need very low exposure to gold stocks because by their nature they are volatile.
00:05:52.079 --> 00:05:56.240
And Bob Cortermane's advice to his younger self and to anyone starting out.
00:05:56.480 --> 00:05:56.879
Two things.
00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.600
Focus on good geology and be willing to take risks.
00:05:59.839 --> 00:06:01.040
And I'll leave you with Rick Rule.
00:06:01.439 --> 00:06:08.879
One of the one things that he hopes everyone walks out of the room understanding that the number you're told may not be the number you live in.
00:06:09.279 --> 00:06:12.720
There's a wonderful phrase that the CPI is the CP lie.
00:06:13.120 --> 00:06:20.959
I would invite any of your listeners to informally construct a basket of goods and services that their family consumes.
00:06:21.680 --> 00:06:28.480
Look at the prices that they paid for that basket of goods and services 2020 and the price that they pay today.
00:06:29.199 --> 00:06:35.279
The government will tell you that the dollar is losing its purchasing power to the extent of 2.5% a year.
00:06:35.759 --> 00:06:37.680
The real number for your family is eight.
00:06:38.160 --> 00:06:40.879
Now, whatever you take from these conversations, take this one too.
00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:44.319
You heard them tested, not just repeated, because that's the job.
00:06:44.480 --> 00:06:47.600
Now Kitko stays independence, and that's a promise, not a slogan.
00:06:47.759 --> 00:06:52.879
For the entire KICCO news team from the Rick Rule Symposium here in Boca Ratan, I'm Jeremy Saffron.
00:06:53.040 --> 00:06:54.399
We'll see you next week.
00:00:00.479 --> 00:00:01.840
Welcome to This Week in Focus.
00:00:01.919 --> 00:00:12.160
I'm Jeremy Saffron, and we're wrapping up an incredible week here on the floor at the Rule Symposium, the beautiful Boca Raton Resort in Florida, a resort that is uh stunning, by the way.
00:00:12.320 --> 00:00:22.559
Now, before anything else, a quick thank you to every guest who sat down with us and to everyone who came up this week just to say hello and to shake a hand and to tell us that Kitco is meant to you.
00:00:22.719 --> 00:00:23.760
That means more than you know.
00:00:23.839 --> 00:00:26.000
And let me say one more thing that I don't get to say often.
00:00:26.160 --> 00:00:29.359
Kitco News remains an independent news organization.
00:00:29.440 --> 00:00:36.560
And in a business full of people selling something, we answer to you, the viewer, and to the facts, not the sponsor, not the stock.
00:00:36.719 --> 00:00:44.240
And as a journalist, that independence is the thing that I'm proudest of, and it's why these conversations you're about to hear can be as honest as they are.
00:00:44.399 --> 00:00:46.640
So here's what stuck with me this week.
00:00:46.719 --> 00:00:51.920
Now, gold ran to the moon, then corrected hard, and it split this room right down the middle.
00:00:52.079 --> 00:00:53.280
Let me show you.
00:00:55.679 --> 00:01:00.560
All right, I start with the man whose name is on the building here, Rick Rule.
00:01:00.799 --> 00:01:03.359
I asked him about the mood after this correction.
00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:09.439
Asking me about the mood at my conference around natural resources is like going to an evangelical church.
00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:11.200
You're asking the choir if they believe in God.
00:01:11.359 --> 00:01:11.920
Yeah, that's true.
00:01:12.159 --> 00:01:13.439
Okay, let me ask you a different way.
00:01:13.599 --> 00:01:16.159
Are they are people greedy or are they scared right now?
00:01:16.400 --> 00:01:17.120
No, people are greedy.
00:01:17.200 --> 00:01:17.280
Yeah.
00:01:17.439 --> 00:01:18.079
People are greedy.
00:01:18.159 --> 00:01:20.719
Now, understand that this audience has been conditioned.
00:01:21.200 --> 00:01:26.159
We've taught them to learn, to know that soft markets are sales.
00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:29.840
But talk to the people who manage the money, and you hear the opposite.
00:01:30.000 --> 00:01:32.799
Here's veteran value investor Adrian Day.
00:01:33.040 --> 00:01:48.959
The negative sentiment on gold equities among the broader investment public right now is, and I say this literally, the worst sentiment I have ever seen in my 50 years managing money in any sector at any time.
00:01:49.359 --> 00:01:56.159
But one day, two weeks ago, one day, two weeks ago, we actually had zero bullish.
00:01:56.560 --> 00:02:01.680
Okay, a greedy room, and the most washed out sentiment in a 50-year veteran has ever seen.
00:02:01.920 --> 00:02:04.400
And Day was honest about the risk too.
00:02:04.560 --> 00:02:10.560
He told me gold could break its last low and fall towards 3,600 before this is done.
00:02:40.000 --> 00:02:41.039
So you know that's different.
00:02:41.120 --> 00:02:43.360
We're finding central banks continuing to buy.
00:02:46.719 --> 00:02:49.280
She says that the price itself is the signal.
00:02:49.520 --> 00:02:54.560
You've got to understand a rise in gold price is an indication of a failing currency.
00:02:54.800 --> 00:03:01.039
And if you get that, once you get that, well, frankly, you start to make different choices.
00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:07.199
You need to think about gold and silver as money and not a trade.
00:03:07.439 --> 00:03:16.479
And from a true insider, former Goldman and Bear Stearns uh banker Nomi Prinz, a contrarian read on the Fed that cuts against this week's headlines.
00:03:16.719 --> 00:03:22.879
I think ultimately the Fed will have to reduce rates in order for us to service our debt.
00:03:22.960 --> 00:03:32.080
I think that Kevin Warsh is waiting, but by being non-forward guiding, he actually has more flexibility to move rates.
00:03:32.159 --> 00:03:35.360
And I read that as flexibility to reduce rates.
00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:38.719
Now, whether or not she's right, her longer point stuck with me.
00:03:39.039 --> 00:03:47.919
She uh since I guess the early 90s, she says uh$100 in cash has lost 60% of its value, while the real assets did the opposite.
00:03:48.159 --> 00:03:48.479
All right.
00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:51.759
Now no metal ran harder or fell harder than silver.
00:03:51.840 --> 00:03:56.080
It hit$121 this year, then got cut by roughly a half.
00:03:56.240 --> 00:04:01.039
Now I asked the loudest silver bull in the world, Keith Nurmeyer, what that correction really was.
00:04:01.280 --> 00:04:04.719
So the whole system was really on the verge of breaking.
00:04:04.960 --> 00:04:08.000
And on where silver should trade, forget the old ratios.
00:04:08.080 --> 00:04:09.360
He watches a different one.
00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:45.839
And he's blunt about why he'll bet on it over the trade dominating every other channel.
00:04:46.079 --> 00:04:48.959
People ask me here at the conference, well, what do you think of NVIDIA?
00:04:49.279 --> 00:04:50.720
The truth is I don't think of it at all.
00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:51.920
I can't spell it.
00:04:52.480 --> 00:04:53.920
I understand copper.
00:05:02.240 --> 00:05:06.399
And if there's one theme this week, it wasn't a price target, it was discipline.
00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:10.000
Adrian Day's rule for surviving a market this volatile.
00:05:10.240 --> 00:05:15.040
Well, I think one would be, and and this sounds one is know yourself.
00:05:15.199 --> 00:05:15.360
Yeah.
00:05:15.680 --> 00:05:17.680
And one is know what you're investing in.
00:05:17.920 --> 00:05:19.120
Know yourself.
00:05:19.439 --> 00:05:28.000
I can't tell you how many people when I talk to them to when they're opening an account and I talk to them, oh yeah, I'm I'm fine, I'm a long-term investor.
00:05:28.160 --> 00:05:29.519
I'm a long-term investor.
00:05:29.680 --> 00:05:31.519
Oh yeah, I'm fine with volatility.
00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:33.360
I can stand volatility, don't worry.
00:05:33.519 --> 00:05:37.519
Nobody, nobody, nobody has ever come to me and said, I'm a nervous Nelly.
00:05:37.920 --> 00:05:38.639
Nobody.
00:05:38.959 --> 00:05:40.160
So that's the first thing.
00:05:40.399 --> 00:05:43.279
Look in the mirror and really know yourself.
00:05:43.519 --> 00:05:51.920
If you cannot tolerate volatility, you need very low exposure to gold stocks because by their nature they are volatile.
00:05:52.079 --> 00:05:56.240
And Bob Cortermane's advice to his younger self and to anyone starting out.
00:05:56.480 --> 00:05:56.879
Two things.
00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.600
Focus on good geology and be willing to take risks.
00:05:59.839 --> 00:06:01.040
And I'll leave you with Rick Rule.
00:06:01.439 --> 00:06:08.879
One of the one things that he hopes everyone walks out of the room understanding that the number you're told may not be the number you live in.
00:06:09.279 --> 00:06:12.720
There's a wonderful phrase that the CPI is the CP lie.
00:06:13.120 --> 00:06:20.959
I would invite any of your listeners to informally construct a basket of goods and services that their family consumes.
00:06:21.680 --> 00:06:28.480
Look at the prices that they paid for that basket of goods and services 2020 and the price that they pay today.
00:06:29.199 --> 00:06:35.279
The government will tell you that the dollar is losing its purchasing power to the extent of 2.5% a year.
00:06:35.759 --> 00:06:37.680
The real number for your family is eight.
00:06:38.160 --> 00:06:40.879
Now, whatever you take from these conversations, take this one too.
00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:44.319
You heard them tested, not just repeated, because that's the job.
00:06:44.480 --> 00:06:47.600
Now Kitko stays independence, and that's a promise, not a slogan.
00:06:47.759 --> 00:06:52.879
For the entire KICCO news team from the Rick Rule Symposium here in Boca Ratan, I'm Jeremy Saffron.
00:06:53.040 --> 00:06:54.399
We'll see you next week.
