Inside The Data: Does The Data Show Eagles Offense Is Giving Tells?

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Hello, welcome to Inside the Data. On Inside the Birds,
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I'm Jeff Mosher. Of course, I got the data man,
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the expert on analytics with me, and it's Sam Finkel.
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And for the second straight week, numbers probably aren't going
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to be good for Eagles fans to hear. However, this show,
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the best thing about what we do here and what
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Sam does is we are adaptable. We don't do the
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same exact thing week after week. We try to adjust
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to what's going on in the game. So in this episode,
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Sam will definitely get into the fourth down, the probabilities
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and the percentages of that somewhat controversial fourth down play
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call or.
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Decision to go for it at the end of the
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game by Nick Sirianni.
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We'll also get into some of the offensive play calling
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and the predictability, lack thereof, not really, of it. And
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then based on a YouTube commenter from last week, Sam
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came up with a really good idea. Because we tend
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to inundate everybody, both our listeners and our viewers on YouTube,
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with a lot of numbers and information in a short pod,
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we'll go and summarize it all at the end. Our
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main takeaway is part of the show. So thanks for
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doing all that work, Sam.
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Of course. Yeah, I'm really glad we got that suggestion.
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Hopefully people enjoy it.
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I'm sure they will. Let's get right to it, right?
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Because if we bring up the first chart, this is
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the craziest chart, like the line graph chart, I guess
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we call it, that you're ever going to see. Well,
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maybe not ever going to see, but certainly one of
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the year. As the Rams, you can see their win,
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you know, the score going low, low, low.
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And then all of a sudden at the end, just
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shooting up there.
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That's unbelievable.
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Yeah, it really was. And it makes it really hard
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when there are certain decisions that the coaching staff made that,
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you know, from a perception standpoint, lowered their chances to win.
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But we'll talk a little bit more about that and
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why it's not a process issue, but an execution issue.
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And sometimes the results just don't land the way that,
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you know, you want.
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Yeah. When was the peak win?
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Point for the Eagles who were leading for almost the
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entire game.
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So the peak win was after the Will Shipley run
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on second and sixth, the four yard run that set
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up the third and goal at the two. The Eagles
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were leading 20 to 10 and the peak win percentage
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was 97%. There were eight minutes left. It was 97%
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likelihood to win this game. Right.
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And that, of course, that run down to the six
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yard line is really set up the sequence of that
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decided the game, whether the Eagles were going to score
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there or give the ball back to the Rams. And
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then the Rams obviously went and did what, Sam?
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Yeah. So the Rams completed the most improbable comeback under
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McVay's career so far with the Rams. Stafford completed 12-15,
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which is 80% completion percentage for 140 yards and all
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plays resulting in all of his passes were successful plays.
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And there was a 75% success rate on the throws
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of that drive.
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So on every throw or just the compilation.
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Of that compilation of throws, even though there was 80% completion,
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75% increased the EPA. Right.
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And so I assume when you say it's the most
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improbable comeback, it's because with eight and change left, they only.
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Had a 3.2% chance to win.
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Correct.
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All right, so we talk about that sequence, right? The
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Eagles get inside the 10 to the six-yard line. They
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run a third down play that by now, if you
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haven't seen it, what really happened, it was probably going
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to be a touchdown, but on a run that they were,
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they were running the ball well, Juergens kind of runs into,
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he's pulling to the right side, and he kind of
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runs into Jalen Hurts, and that causes Jalen Hurts to
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bobble the ball, and then the timing of the play
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is off. He can't hand it off to Bigsby. He
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has to try to take it himself. He gets stopped,
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and that sets up a fourth and goal at the two.
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That set up to an incompletion. I believe it was
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to Darius Cooper looking for his third touchdown of the day,
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but it was short. Yes.
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So let us examine, Sam, what everybody's been talking about since,
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which is Should Nick Sirianni have gone for it there
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or kicked the field goal to go up by, that
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would have been up by 13 at that point.
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So let me be explicitly clear. This is an analysis
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on process and analytics. It is not an analysis on
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scheme or execution. That is really important factors for sure.
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But purely from a mathematical standpoint, the answer is unequivocally yes.
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It was the right decision. And the reason it comes
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into that is because there are really two schools of thought, right?
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So you're either going to go for it or kick
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the field goal, which obviously are the two options. The
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thing is, if you don't convert either, right? I have
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definitive statistics that without the conversion, they were at 91%
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win percentage. It didn't drop them that much, which again,
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there was no statistic on if they missed the field goal. Right.
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But it can be implied to be the same because
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the net result was the same. I just want to
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be very clear on that because there was no win
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probability on that, but I'm implying it's the same thing.
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And then you look at, if you go for it,
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the percentage of winning goes to 97.3%. And that's from
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ESPN analytics.
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So it was at 96%, correct?
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It was at, it.
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Was at, yeah, it was at 96. It was at
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97 before on the third down and then it became
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96 on the fourth down.
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Right.
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So you would go from that 96 to 97.3%. Right.
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And the reason, the logic behind it is you're up 17, right?
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That's three scores. It takes three scores to break that lead.
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If you kick the field goal, you're only up two scores.
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The difference between 13 and 10 is negligible. And in fact,
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it changes the way the offense, the opposing offense is
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going to drive down the field. Because if they only
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need a touchdown and a field goal versus two touchdowns,
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their mindset is completely different. And it completely changes the
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flow of the game. And because it makes it more
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like they did a study on it. And it's one
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of my favorite YouTube videos I saw about When an
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offense is down a touchdown, which is what they eventually
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could have been if they went for that, they're more
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likely to be aggressive and get that touchdown. There was
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a weird study on it that said that. But that
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in the background of this, if they kick the field goal,
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their win percentage was 95.3%. It actually went down. And
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it was because of the logic we're talking about, right?
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Because two touchdowns would have taken the lead at that.
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And not to mention, you have to kick off, so
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the Rams would almost surely get the ball in a
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more favorable spot than if you miss, which they did,
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and they had to start off with a two.
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Absolutely. I mean, having the opposing offense have to do
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a 98-yard drive is a very difficult task. The thing
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that I think everyone's going to bring in, besides the
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schematic part of it and besides the execution part of it,
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is injuries, right? I mean, a lot of it is injuries.
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Do those injuries factor? And yeah, of course they do.
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There are real world implications that make this decision a
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little bit more difficult. But purely from a math standpoint,
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this was the right decision because it put the opposing
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team in the worst position to succeed. Even even the result,
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even you accept it because you do it. I didn't
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expect it. Win analysis to of it. and it still
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is the right– I thought it would overcomplicate things a
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little bit, so I'm just keeping it somewhat simple. But
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it is– the math says this is the right call.
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It is the right call. Just because the results didn't
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go the right way doesn't mean it isn't the right call.
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100%. I'll give you an example that is different but
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similar in concept. When Quinnian Mitchell got hurt and Jonathan
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Jones had to go play his first snaps as an Eagle,
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33 years old, right? What did the Rams do? They
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went and attacked him mercilessly. And they had a beautiful
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play call on third down against him that got Devontae
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Adams wide open. But Matthew Stafford just overshot him a
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little bit. The result was not favorable, but the process was.
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You would, of course, want to go after. You want
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to give yourself the best chance to succeed. And even
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though that's a low percentage pass and you're losing at
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the time, would you rather have a.
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Higher percentage pass, right?
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A five-yard pass there doesn't help you as much as
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that touchdown would have helped you. You have to take
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context into everything.
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We always know that.
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But I think what happened, what the Rams did, Sam
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validated the decision to go for it.
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They went and scored 14 points.
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So if the Eagles had kicked the field goal, they
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would have lost by one instead of losing by four.
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What's the difference?
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You lose, you lose. So I agree. I thought it was,
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I do respect, you.
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Know, people who think that maybe things and context and
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stuff happens.
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Yeah.
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But you can't, I don't think you can, I do
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not think you can coach a game on, well.
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Maybe if they get, they, maybe.
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They'll fumble the field goal. I'm sorry. The ensuing kickoff return, right?
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Like you can't, you can't manage a game that way.
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You have to give yourself the best percentage of a
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chance to win.
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Well, and that's the thing. You can't control a lot
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of things in football. You can control your process and
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your decision-making and that's where analytics really helps.
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A hundred percent. I, by the way, I did, I
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do what, you know, I do a weekly show every
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weekend where I preview all the NFL games. And I
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like to have like a, a quick five minute discussion
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of what's going on in the week. And I made,
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and the last one, I made a point of the
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Brian Schottenheimer decision two weekends ago against the Ravens. Nick's– no, no.
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The Titans coach. Why am I– his name is escaping me.
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When he played the Eagles, he kicked off into the
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end zone.
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Remember that?
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We criticize him for it. I don't know why I
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can't think of his name right now. Robert Sala. There
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we go.
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Yeah. I was like, I thought Callahan for a second.
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I was like, nope, that's not me.
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I was going through a bunch of different coaching decisions
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that analytically were just far off or just silly, right?
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and bringing up Ryan Pagnetti's name as someone who I
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think was a huge part of why the Eagles won
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the Super Bowl in 2017 because he was in Doug's
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ear and Doug trusted him all the time. And Doug,
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because of Ryan's advice, got more and more confident doing
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things that the analytics said to do, going.
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For it on fourth down.
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The Philly special being like the highlight of it all.
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That Eagles team wasn't like, they didn't have any thousand
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yard receivers. They never had a thousand yards. They wouldn't
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have any superstars like the 2022 team did.
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Right.
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But they won it basically because they were so among
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the reasons, so confident on being able to win situationally.
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And I think what a lot of NFL head coaches
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are missing is a kind of like that guy in
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their ear to give them the right call. Now Nick
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made the right call and it just didn't work. That's,
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that's going to happen. Yeah.
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You have to live with these results. I honestly, I
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think that, this works out in their favor more often
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than it doesn't. I think that's what the numbers say.
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But I mean, look, the numbers don't say 100%, right?
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It says 97.3, it says 91. They just happened, the
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coin fell the other way. That's it.
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Absolutely. All right. Third down. Wow, what a disaster in
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this game. I had a great story written about how
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the Eagles were going to be becoming the first team
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in NFL history to win a game by double digits
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despite having no third down conversions on at least seven attempts.
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And then that got thwarted.
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Really?
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That was a control alt delete type fourth quarter for me,
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but that's where they were headed. Yeah.
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I mean, it's, it's shocking. I, this was my favorite
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segment that I was hoping to cut out this year.
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I know we were excited when it flipped, but like,
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I was just like, okay, cool. We're going to cut
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this out. Eventually we can stop hyper-focusing on third down
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conversions and it reared its ugly head again. It really did.
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Yeah. What does 0 for 12 mean to you from
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a historical standpoint?
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It's the most third down attempts without a conversion for
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the Eagles since at least 1991. Wow. They had 15
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three and outs this season, which is the most, and
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11 in the second half, which is three more than
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any other team in the NFL. Wow.
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Amazing.
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That should have been my story.
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25 years in between their worst third.
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Down conversion rates.
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Yeah.
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And now they're down... as you point out here to
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36% for the season. I remember after week two, it
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was like, it was something crazy.
326
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It was like 53%.
327
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If I'm not mistaken, it was really high. Yeah. So
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now they're worse than they were last year, even. And
329
00:16:37.289 --> 00:16:39.809
of course, much worse than in third down since 2024.
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And you look at it, they're, they're allowing their opponents to,
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they were better than last year on allowing their opponents
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to convert. And now they're right in the ballpark.
333
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It's just not good. And then, of course, our favorite
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category is how often you're in third and long compared
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to short and middle. And last week, the Eagles got
336
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to a point where they were right back where they
337
00:17:01.629 --> 00:17:04.670
were last year, which is as many third and longs
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00:17:04.849 --> 00:17:08.230
as short and middle combined. And now they're starting to
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00:17:08.269 --> 00:17:09.549
go above that.
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00:17:09.569 --> 00:17:13.009
Yeah, it's not ideal. I mean, not by much, but yes,
341
00:17:13.529 --> 00:17:16.329
it is. It's certainly not ideal. And the thing that's
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00:17:16.390 --> 00:17:19.859
most concerning is their third and shorts. They're not converting either.
343
00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:22.039
Yes, that's right.
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00:17:22.059 --> 00:17:24.740
I mean, first off, I think this deserves some merit
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in talking about is running the tush push from third–
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it was fourth and one and a half, right?
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00:17:31.279 --> 00:17:31.579
Yes.
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I don't know. With a backup center and a left
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guard who's not playing well, yeah. I think even analytically
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00:17:39.680 --> 00:17:41.660
that might not have been a great time to go
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for it too because you're on your side of the field, correct?
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00:17:44.779 --> 00:17:47.440
I– I had it up. I thought it was more
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of a coin flip. I thought I saw somewhere that
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it was low.
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I think it was, there was one that there was
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like a fourth and two that I thought Sirianni should
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have went with at one point that they punted. Let
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00:18:03.829 --> 00:18:04.630
me see if I can find it.
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Yeah, sure. Sure. But you know, the big one that
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killed them was the third and goal at the two
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that we mentioned where Juergens and, The Jurgens ran into
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00:18:13.569 --> 00:18:15.950
Hertz because that might have been a touchdown right there.
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00:18:16.029 --> 00:18:18.089
And that would have been a big, very, very big key.
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00:18:18.170 --> 00:18:19.670
It would have sworn in the game and we would
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not even be having this conversation.
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Right.
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00:18:22.450 --> 00:18:22.829
Right.
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00:18:23.589 --> 00:18:28.890
It was, I believe, because I want to see the
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one where they didn't convert.
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00:18:30.430 --> 00:18:32.119
Sure. By the way.
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Go ahead.
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They did convert fourth downs in the game, which is not.
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But keep going.
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00:18:37.619 --> 00:18:39.500
I was going to say the crazy thing about the
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0 for 12 on third downs is that 11 of
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them came in. in the second half so they don't
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even had third down once in the first half which
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00:18:47.630 --> 00:18:49.250
is like hey you'd love to stay out of third
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00:18:49.289 --> 00:18:50.890
down but i mean you'd also love to be in
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00:18:50.930 --> 00:18:53.079
positions where you're in a lot of third and shorts
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if you have to be you know they were in
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one third down the entire first half and it's not
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like they scored 30 points.
384
00:19:01.099 --> 00:19:02.529
Do you remember what quarter that was in.
385
00:19:03.440 --> 00:19:07.559
Yeah, it was the first drive, third and six. And honestly,
386
00:19:07.579 --> 00:19:10.119
that was one of the very few things I could
387
00:19:10.140 --> 00:19:13.539
say Hurts didn't do. There was a wide open Dontavia
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00:19:13.559 --> 00:19:15.319
and Wicks. We went over this on Inside the Tape.
389
00:19:17.119 --> 00:19:18.980
Wicks was wide open over the middle on the layered
390
00:19:19.200 --> 00:19:21.809
kind of high-low concept. And for whatever reason, Hurts just
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00:19:21.849 --> 00:19:25.690
didn't throw it. And then pressure came on him because
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00:19:25.710 --> 00:19:26.910
he was holding on to the ball and he threw
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it out of bounds.
394
00:19:28.670 --> 00:19:29.170
Makes sense.
395
00:19:29.569 --> 00:19:29.849
Yeah.
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00:19:30.430 --> 00:19:34.940
Yeah. So I do have this there. Let me just
397
00:19:35.910 --> 00:19:38.809
look at all the Eagles' fourth downs. It looks like
398
00:19:38.829 --> 00:19:43.789
there's only one where the analytics said go, and they didn't,
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00:19:44.490 --> 00:19:48.170
which was the fourth and four uh in the fourth
400
00:19:48.230 --> 00:19:52.759
quarter with 307 left right around midfield that's the only
401
00:19:52.859 --> 00:19:53.740
one it looks like.
402
00:19:53.940 --> 00:19:57.920
Yeah i i would say though given the conditions that
403
00:19:57.940 --> 00:19:59.740
would have been a i mean you haven't converted a
404
00:19:59.880 --> 00:20:02.900
third down all day you're in fourth and four i
405
00:20:02.920 --> 00:20:04.880
get it you're trying to keep that drive alive not
406
00:20:04.920 --> 00:20:07.069
give the ball back to the rams but God, they
407
00:20:07.109 --> 00:20:10.220
were solo. The idea of maybe turning the ball over
408
00:20:10.259 --> 00:20:12.819
there or giving the Rams that short of a field
409
00:20:12.859 --> 00:20:13.420
at that point.
410
00:20:13.779 --> 00:20:16.680
Sure. Totally fair. I'm just looking at what the ESPN
411
00:20:16.720 --> 00:20:20.700
analytics have. But yeah, I mean, everyone looks pretty like
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they followed it pretty closely.
413
00:20:23.250 --> 00:20:26.470
All right. EPA. I mean, what's there to say here, Sam?
414
00:20:26.509 --> 00:20:27.650
I mean, it's not good.
415
00:20:28.210 --> 00:20:30.890
Well, first off, could you blow it up a little bit?
416
00:20:30.950 --> 00:20:33.069
I think we show the, this is the max that
417
00:20:33.109 --> 00:20:33.700
I can blow it up.
418
00:20:33.890 --> 00:20:37.670
Okay. Totally fair. Totally fair. Sorry. No, you're good. I
419
00:20:37.690 --> 00:20:39.190
just I have a new chart and I want to
420
00:20:39.230 --> 00:20:41.710
make sure that people can see it or appreciate it.
421
00:20:42.910 --> 00:20:43.109
Yeah.
422
00:20:43.190 --> 00:20:48.519
So if you remember EPA, very sensitive to turnovers, touchdowns,
423
00:20:48.960 --> 00:20:53.759
big plays, positive for offense is good. I added some
424
00:20:53.880 --> 00:20:55.660
a little bit different stuff this time. So I have
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00:20:55.680 --> 00:21:00.170
the league average through four weeks. which actually is interesting.
426
00:21:00.190 --> 00:21:04.089
The league average is minus 0.04 for EPA per play.
427
00:21:04.549 --> 00:21:07.769
So pretty much every EPA per play is negative on
428
00:21:07.849 --> 00:21:11.279
average in the league. Eagles managed to stay above that
429
00:21:11.420 --> 00:21:16.299
in the first two weeks, and they were significantly below
430
00:21:16.339 --> 00:21:17.779
it in the last two.
431
00:21:18.180 --> 00:21:19.359
Yeah.
432
00:21:19.700 --> 00:21:22.289
So I think that that's very much worth saying. And
433
00:21:22.309 --> 00:21:26.089
then on the season, they're minus 0.18, so they're one
434
00:21:26.109 --> 00:21:29.950
of the worst units ever. For sure. Then if we
435
00:21:29.970 --> 00:21:32.759
look at it from a passing and a rushing standpoint,
436
00:21:32.900 --> 00:21:38.640
I mean, the average per pass is minus 0.02. And
437
00:21:39.099 --> 00:21:43.430
they were only above it for passing against Tennessee. And
438
00:21:43.450 --> 00:21:47.710
then rushing, it's minus 0.08. And they were above it
439
00:21:47.769 --> 00:21:50.970
for Washington and Chicago. And if you look at this week,
440
00:21:51.029 --> 00:21:54.420
they were significantly below on both categories. Yeah.
441
00:21:55.039 --> 00:22:00.740
And I would think their EPA overall offensive yet minus 0.37
442
00:22:00.740 --> 00:22:04.599
against the Rams, which is better than the minus 0.4
443
00:22:04.599 --> 00:22:06.000
against the bears is only.
444
00:22:05.839 --> 00:22:07.539
Because they didn't turn the ball over.
445
00:22:07.559 --> 00:22:07.940
Correct.
446
00:22:08.460 --> 00:22:11.309
Because that's, we always say EPA sensitive to turnovers. They
447
00:22:11.329 --> 00:22:13.440
had three against the bears.
448
00:22:13.700 --> 00:22:13.880
Yeah.
449
00:22:13.920 --> 00:22:15.269
Three overall, right.
450
00:22:15.309 --> 00:22:18.250
The two interceptions and the fumble none against the Rams
451
00:22:18.349 --> 00:22:22.700
or else, or else I think that the, epa you
452
00:22:22.720 --> 00:22:25.099
know i mean we'll get into dvoa because that's not
453
00:22:25.140 --> 00:22:28.319
a sensitive turnovers but uh they did not perform better
454
00:22:28.359 --> 00:22:31.789
offensively against the rams than they did against the the
455
00:22:31.829 --> 00:22:33.769
bears for sure they just didn't turn the ball.
456
00:22:33.549 --> 00:22:37.630
Over sure but i will say the ramps are a
457
00:22:37.650 --> 00:22:41.890
better defense than the bears great point through through dvoa
458
00:22:42.170 --> 00:22:44.170
they're actually probably going to be i mean i know
459
00:22:44.190 --> 00:22:44.569
they're going.
460
00:22:44.490 --> 00:22:46.140
To yes they are you're right better.
461
00:22:47.000 --> 00:22:51.480
But it's it's because of contextual factors such as that absolutely.
462
00:22:51.769 --> 00:22:54.190
Um, so their EPA, uh, I like how you have
463
00:22:54.230 --> 00:22:54.789
it broken down.
464
00:22:54.809 --> 00:22:54.890
Yeah.
465
00:22:56.049 --> 00:22:57.329
Again, by, by.
466
00:22:57.210 --> 00:23:01.829
Opponent, by week EPA per rush. It's see, this is
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00:23:01.890 --> 00:23:04.509
the SAP. I know again, there were injuries, but like they,
468
00:23:04.670 --> 00:23:06.759
they showed some signs in the first half against the
469
00:23:06.799 --> 00:23:09.480
bears of really starting to get that run game going
470
00:23:09.500 --> 00:23:13.660
for the first time with a 0.31 EPA per rush,
471
00:23:13.680 --> 00:23:16.420
which is their highest of the first three weeks.
472
00:23:17.099 --> 00:23:18.609
And then they completely flip it.
473
00:23:18.819 --> 00:23:18.940
Yeah.
474
00:23:19.789 --> 00:23:22.950
By going to minus 0.32 against the Rams. Just a
475
00:23:22.970 --> 00:23:24.190
tough situation overall.
476
00:23:24.529 --> 00:23:27.259
It definitely was. And it's hard to see. I mean,
477
00:23:27.450 --> 00:23:29.500
a lot of it, right? I mean, they had a
478
00:23:29.519 --> 00:23:33.079
lot of run success in particular on the drive in question,
479
00:23:33.099 --> 00:23:36.400
the controversial drive. They ran the ball extremely well on
480
00:23:36.420 --> 00:23:40.779
that drive. It's also hard because Barkley wasn't on. He
481
00:23:40.799 --> 00:23:44.269
got hurt pretty early on. Sure. And then, you know,
482
00:23:44.329 --> 00:23:47.210
Tank gets out. It's tough. I mean, not making too
483
00:23:47.250 --> 00:23:50.099
many excuses, but it is tricky. for sure.
484
00:23:50.700 --> 00:23:52.799
All right. As you mentioned the over the, when we
485
00:23:52.819 --> 00:23:55.009
switched to DVO way, it's different categories.
486
00:23:55.049 --> 00:23:55.829
We've mentioned all the time.
487
00:23:55.880 --> 00:23:58.029
It takes more of the situation of the game, the
488
00:23:58.069 --> 00:24:02.430
defense that they're playing, um, not as turnover sensitive as EPA.
489
00:24:02.809 --> 00:24:05.509
It's obviously still negative in the, uh, DVO way, but
490
00:24:06.630 --> 00:24:09.809
to your point, because the Rams have a very good defense, um,
491
00:24:09.990 --> 00:24:12.369
their DVO way, not as bad as it was against
492
00:24:12.410 --> 00:24:12.829
the bears.
493
00:24:13.349 --> 00:24:13.569
Yes.
494
00:24:13.730 --> 00:24:15.710
Definitely.
495
00:24:15.990 --> 00:24:18.490
Now I actually, it's, it's, I have to make a, uh,
496
00:24:19.039 --> 00:24:23.480
PSA for DVOA. It will always look different. Even if
497
00:24:23.519 --> 00:24:27.480
you see this plus 6.7% for Washington, I have to
498
00:24:27.529 --> 00:24:29.940
go back and check it because every week it's adjusts
499
00:24:30.410 --> 00:24:35.329
as the opponent becomes better or worse. It's normalized every week.
500
00:24:35.349 --> 00:24:39.009
So every week's number may look different. In fact, next
501
00:24:39.130 --> 00:24:43.289
episodes will look probably different just because this DVOA is
502
00:24:43.410 --> 00:24:47.259
updated that frequently. So don't be upset if it says
503
00:24:47.339 --> 00:24:50.640
plus 6.7 today and then Washington turns out to have
504
00:24:50.660 --> 00:24:55.990
a worse defense and it's plus 4.2. Just– I have
505
00:24:56.009 --> 00:24:57.750
to let you know that because that is one of
506
00:24:57.769 --> 00:24:59.869
the nuances with this stat. I really want to be
507
00:24:59.910 --> 00:25:01.789
clear on that. So before we get into it, I
508
00:25:01.950 --> 00:25:04.150
think that's a good time to plug that. Sure.
509
00:25:04.509 --> 00:25:07.390
The good thing is most people, Eagles fans and otherwise,
510
00:25:07.509 --> 00:25:09.200
only care about what's going on this.
511
00:25:09.099 --> 00:25:10.660
Week and who they're playing next week.
512
00:25:10.759 --> 00:25:13.140
So I don't think they'll worry about that too much.
513
00:25:13.420 --> 00:25:16.839
For sure. But if there is inconsistency, that is the reason.
514
00:25:17.460 --> 00:25:20.359
All right. Good stuff.
515
00:25:20.619 --> 00:25:23.539
So let's look at this from the Rams game first off.
516
00:25:23.599 --> 00:25:28.400
I mean– Their overall DVOA for offense was minus 21.1.
517
00:25:28.400 --> 00:25:30.640
Not as bad as the Bears, but it's only because
518
00:25:30.700 --> 00:25:32.519
the Rams have a better defense, like I said. I
519
00:25:33.609 --> 00:25:38.789
think the Eagles did well enough to justify it to
520
00:25:38.829 --> 00:25:41.839
some extent. I mean, the it was a really rough
521
00:25:41.880 --> 00:25:43.339
game with the bears. I mean, I'm not saying this
522
00:25:43.400 --> 00:25:45.579
one was rough for different reasons, but I just, I
523
00:25:45.599 --> 00:25:48.220
think that that's important to caveat. And then on the season,
524
00:25:48.240 --> 00:25:52.680
they're minus 9.4%. And again, when we're looking at overall DVO,
525
00:25:52.759 --> 00:25:55.240
a for a unit, it, you don't need to look
526
00:25:55.269 --> 00:25:59.509
at the rank as much it's, it's normalized. So, I mean,
527
00:25:59.690 --> 00:26:03.890
they're 9.4% worse than an average NFL offense and 21.1%
528
00:26:03.890 --> 00:26:06.650
worse than in that game. But when we get into
529
00:26:06.670 --> 00:26:09.930
the passing and rushing it, The numbers matter, but not
530
00:26:09.970 --> 00:26:12.769
as much. It's more the ranks that matter. And, you know,
531
00:26:12.890 --> 00:26:14.710
you look at them from a passing standpoint, they were
532
00:26:15.349 --> 00:26:18.650
31st against the Bears in the league, and they're 24th
533
00:26:18.990 --> 00:26:22.779
this week. And they're a 22nd unit in general passing.
534
00:26:23.059 --> 00:26:23.880
22nd unit passing.
535
00:26:23.980 --> 00:26:27.099
It's hard to believe there's nine worse teams at throwing
536
00:26:27.119 --> 00:26:29.539
the football than the Eagles right now, but okay.
537
00:26:31.650 --> 00:26:34.819
That is a fair point. But, I mean, I will
538
00:26:34.900 --> 00:26:37.259
say that rushing– I mean, we talked about how they
539
00:26:37.279 --> 00:26:40.140
were a better rushing team. They were still only 17th.
540
00:26:40.579 --> 00:26:42.240
When they were at their best, they were average.
541
00:26:42.599 --> 00:26:44.660
Against the Bears, right. They ranked 17th.
542
00:26:44.779 --> 00:26:45.039
Yeah.
543
00:26:45.559 --> 00:26:48.460
And then 26th against the Rams and then 21st unit
544
00:26:48.599 --> 00:26:51.160
right now, which honestly that's a little bit surprising to
545
00:26:51.200 --> 00:26:54.160
me that there are teams significantly better.
546
00:26:54.279 --> 00:26:57.329
I was just about to say the same. I thought
547
00:26:57.349 --> 00:26:57.910
they'd be lower.
548
00:26:58.569 --> 00:26:59.529
I thought they would be too.
549
00:27:00.970 --> 00:27:03.220
But, yeah. All right, well.
550
00:27:04.079 --> 00:27:05.519
The Green Bay Packers exist.
551
00:27:06.079 --> 00:27:08.440
Yeah, oh, God, that's a great point. They are just
552
00:27:08.660 --> 00:27:10.200
hideous offensively right now.
553
00:27:10.220 --> 00:27:11.660
I think it.
554
00:27:11.640 --> 00:27:16.299
Was the Seahawks, the Browns, and maybe the Patriots. I
555
00:27:16.319 --> 00:27:18.900
think those were the bottom four, if I remember correctly.
556
00:27:18.920 --> 00:27:22.220
Bad company. All right, the next two graphs are going
557
00:27:22.240 --> 00:27:22.880
to be really important.
558
00:27:22.900 --> 00:27:25.140
We're going to get into whether or not they've become
559
00:27:25.240 --> 00:27:27.660
too predictable and why, right? Okay.
560
00:27:27.680 --> 00:27:27.980
Definitely.
561
00:27:28.200 --> 00:27:29.019
So let's first.
562
00:27:28.839 --> 00:27:30.500
Start off with what we do every week. And I
563
00:27:30.579 --> 00:27:31.980
love the new graphics.
564
00:27:32.109 --> 00:27:32.730
Great, by the way.
565
00:27:33.009 --> 00:27:33.490
Thank you.
566
00:27:33.630 --> 00:27:38.109
Yeah, let's do it. This is just the normal offensive
567
00:27:38.309 --> 00:27:41.329
efficiency graphic of what they are, how efficient they are
568
00:27:41.670 --> 00:27:44.109
from each of their personnel groupings. And like we said,
569
00:27:44.130 --> 00:27:47.890
the way they're constituted right now with not only their injuries,
570
00:27:47.950 --> 00:27:51.140
but with, yeah, that really from injuries, there are far more.
571
00:27:52.039 --> 00:27:54.319
They are in far much more 11 personnel than we
572
00:27:54.380 --> 00:27:56.759
ever expected them. I'm sure they ever expected they would
573
00:27:56.799 --> 00:27:59.420
be in and stayed the same in this game. There
574
00:27:59.980 --> 00:28:03.000
are 11 personnel, which is three wide receivers, one running back,
575
00:28:03.099 --> 00:28:07.920
one tight end on 45 of 58 overall plays. Yeah.
576
00:28:07.980 --> 00:28:10.569
So that's, that's a lot.
577
00:28:12.490 --> 00:28:13.289
It is. It is.
578
00:28:13.309 --> 00:28:15.670
I mean, it's gotta be like close to 80%, right?
579
00:28:16.130 --> 00:28:17.990
I didn't do the math, but that's probably close as
580
00:28:18.029 --> 00:28:20.980
close as, 80% you'll see a team get this team
581
00:28:21.000 --> 00:28:22.099
gets 11 personnel.
582
00:28:22.720 --> 00:28:28.309
Right. I mean, they, it's like 78%. So you're right there.
583
00:28:28.329 --> 00:28:32.650
I just did the pull down my little calculator just
584
00:28:32.690 --> 00:28:34.250
because I'm the math guy. It doesn't mean I'm going
585
00:28:34.269 --> 00:28:35.470
to do it all in my head. I don't, I
586
00:28:35.490 --> 00:28:36.789
don't want to say the wrong thing, you know, I
587
00:28:37.109 --> 00:28:39.670
didn't want to put you on the spot. I appreciate that.
588
00:28:40.849 --> 00:28:43.349
But yeah, I mean, listen, that they, that is definitely
589
00:28:43.390 --> 00:28:45.730
a big part of what they've had to adapt to.
590
00:28:45.750 --> 00:28:50.500
And yeah, Out of those packages, they're running pretty well
591
00:28:50.599 --> 00:28:55.690
out of 11, 11 of their 19. And again, success
592
00:28:56.130 --> 00:29:00.589
from what standpoint that we use is 40% on first down,
593
00:29:00.589 --> 00:29:06.130
50% on second down, convert, convert. So that's the metrics
594
00:29:06.170 --> 00:29:09.609
we use for success, at least in this instance. Their
595
00:29:09.650 --> 00:29:14.799
past success just in general was poor, but their running success,
596
00:29:14.839 --> 00:29:19.180
you know, not, terrible, particularly out of 11 personnel. Right.
597
00:29:21.359 --> 00:29:24.450
And out of 12 personnel, again, it was only 11 snaps, so.
598
00:29:24.390 --> 00:29:26.369
We're not going to make a big deal of it,
599
00:29:26.430 --> 00:29:29.349
but they obviously didn't pass the ball well or throw
600
00:29:29.390 --> 00:29:29.930
the ball well.
601
00:29:30.390 --> 00:29:34.880
Right. And I mean, I will say from a personnel standpoint,
602
00:29:35.400 --> 00:29:38.480
when they were in 12, it was pretty balanced in
603
00:29:38.539 --> 00:29:41.990
terms of run pass. Just, I think that's worth saying,
604
00:29:42.269 --> 00:29:45.009
but when we talk about formationally, that's when it'll get
605
00:29:45.049 --> 00:29:45.809
a little bit less.
606
00:29:46.069 --> 00:29:46.430
Yes.
607
00:29:46.869 --> 00:29:47.089
Yeah.
608
00:29:47.130 --> 00:29:49.079
So this is part of the adaptation of the show.
609
00:29:49.140 --> 00:29:50.440
And I asked Sam, I said.
610
00:29:50.500 --> 00:29:53.819
We really, I know we should look into what are
611
00:29:53.839 --> 00:29:56.220
the Eagles doing when they're under center and what are
612
00:29:56.259 --> 00:29:59.359
they doing when they're in shotgun? Because again, it's sort of,
613
00:29:59.359 --> 00:30:02.980
it hasn't felt, it looks pretty obvious that what I
614
00:30:03.019 --> 00:30:05.420
call it, Sam is it's the old offense in new
615
00:30:05.519 --> 00:30:08.599
offenses close. Meaning yes, they're going under center.
616
00:30:09.039 --> 00:30:09.220
Yes.
617
00:30:09.240 --> 00:30:10.740
They're running a wide zone.
618
00:30:11.019 --> 00:30:11.160
Yes.
619
00:30:11.180 --> 00:30:14.500
They're incorporating more of these, you know, the, the concepts are,
620
00:30:14.839 --> 00:30:18.809
are modernized West coast, but it sure looks like when
621
00:30:18.849 --> 00:30:21.869
they're under center, they're just running instead of running that
622
00:30:21.910 --> 00:30:22.609
great play action.
623
00:30:22.630 --> 00:30:22.730
Right.
624
00:30:22.769 --> 00:30:25.470
And then when they're in shotgun, they're, They're passing, and
625
00:30:25.509 --> 00:30:28.410
that's a tell for a defense every time. So you
626
00:30:28.450 --> 00:30:31.990
put together that kind of situational play calling, and what
627
00:30:32.009 --> 00:30:32.529
did you find?
628
00:30:32.869 --> 00:30:35.450
Well, your gut's right. Let's just say that. I mean,
629
00:30:35.789 --> 00:30:39.099
you were 100% right. I mean, they're out of shotgun.
630
00:30:39.519 --> 00:30:42.740
They were about almost 70% of their plays were passes.
631
00:30:43.599 --> 00:30:46.740
And when they were under center, almost 80% of their
632
00:30:46.779 --> 00:30:52.009
plays were runs, 77%. So I do that.
633
00:30:52.309 --> 00:30:54.910
What a tell. Yeah, you can't beat. I mean, I mean,
634
00:30:54.990 --> 00:30:57.509
there are other tells, but that's the biggest tell of all.
635
00:30:57.549 --> 00:31:01.269
If you're just doing the same thing every time you're
636
00:31:01.289 --> 00:31:02.049
making it easy.
637
00:31:03.069 --> 00:31:05.950
No variety at all. I mean, it's pretty clear. I mean,
638
00:31:06.009 --> 00:31:09.430
even look, when we say shotgun under center, we're we're
639
00:31:09.470 --> 00:31:13.480
simplifying formations. I mean, obviously, the way you can have
640
00:31:13.519 --> 00:31:17.150
your looks under center and shotgun are different. But as
641
00:31:17.190 --> 00:31:20.509
like a pure concept, we're looking just where the quarterback
642
00:31:20.569 --> 00:31:24.880
is standing. And that's your determination. I mean, you're simplifying
643
00:31:24.900 --> 00:31:26.619
it for the defenses significantly.
644
00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:27.380
For sure.
645
00:31:27.680 --> 00:31:28.500
Have some variety.
646
00:31:29.730 --> 00:31:32.289
I mean, they've only passed the ball. We're four weeks
647
00:31:32.329 --> 00:31:36.130
into a season where you've been expecting to see the
648
00:31:36.170 --> 00:31:39.759
whole point of this offense is a good marriage of
649
00:31:39.890 --> 00:31:42.839
run and play action to be able to pass the
650
00:31:42.859 --> 00:31:44.640
ball out of what looks like a run and to
651
00:31:44.680 --> 00:31:46.599
be able to run the ball of what looks like
652
00:31:46.619 --> 00:31:50.279
a pass, right? They have gone under center, first of all,
653
00:31:50.299 --> 00:31:52.799
only 17 times, and they've only thrown the ball four
654
00:31:52.839 --> 00:31:55.339
times out of that. So I would have never thought,
655
00:31:55.420 --> 00:31:57.720
even struggling, you could have told me that they would
656
00:31:57.759 --> 00:32:01.509
only have four runs under center play action passes through
657
00:32:01.589 --> 00:32:02.130
four weeks.
658
00:32:03.049 --> 00:32:04.430
This is just this week.
659
00:32:04.509 --> 00:32:05.650
That's just, I'm sorry.
660
00:32:05.690 --> 00:32:05.849
Yeah.
661
00:32:05.890 --> 00:32:06.509
Through this week.
662
00:32:06.549 --> 00:32:06.750
Yeah.
663
00:32:06.789 --> 00:32:09.289
Yeah. I meant to, we should also look at it
664
00:32:09.589 --> 00:32:11.609
for when we can, right.
665
00:32:11.630 --> 00:32:12.769
Yeah.
666
00:32:12.809 --> 00:32:16.980
But I'm fairly certain that this has been this graph
667
00:32:17.000 --> 00:32:20.380
that we're showing for against the Rams would look similar.
668
00:32:20.660 --> 00:32:23.039
If we did a cumulative guaranteed.
669
00:32:23.319 --> 00:32:25.839
Yeah. Almost guaranteed. Yep. Yep.
670
00:32:26.400 --> 00:32:29.519
All right. Rough. Very, very rough.
671
00:32:29.759 --> 00:32:30.039
Okay.
672
00:32:30.700 --> 00:32:35.720
Eagles, we'll go to the defense now. Defensive EPA, what
673
00:32:36.259 --> 00:32:37.180
do the numbers say here?
674
00:32:37.599 --> 00:32:40.880
Again, now that we're on defense, negative is good. Right.
675
00:32:40.960 --> 00:32:43.900
Positive is bad. You look at the Eagles, they're all
676
00:32:43.960 --> 00:32:50.519
above the league average. League average is also negative 0.4. 0.04, apologies.
677
00:32:50.559 --> 00:32:53.200
That would be pretty crazy if the league average was
678
00:32:53.500 --> 00:32:58.319
negative 0.4. Regardless, the Eagles have been over it. Every
679
00:32:58.339 --> 00:33:02.240
single week, their defense has not put, at even an
680
00:33:02.480 --> 00:33:05.940
average level, put the opposing offense in a position to
681
00:33:05.960 --> 00:33:10.920
be unsuccessful. So they've just struggled with that. And they're 0.02
682
00:33:10.920 --> 00:33:14.309
on the season. And then we look at a passing
683
00:33:14.349 --> 00:33:17.069
and a rushing standpoint, it's a little bit different. I mean,
684
00:33:17.390 --> 00:33:22.470
the EPA per pass for deep fences averages at negative 0.01.
685
00:33:22.470 --> 00:33:25.089
And they were only, they actually were better at it
686
00:33:26.250 --> 00:33:30.339
in the Rams game. surprisingly. And it's only because of
687
00:33:30.380 --> 00:33:33.440
the turnovers. I mean, that's the only reason, just so
688
00:33:33.460 --> 00:33:37.269
you're clear. If there were no, no interceptions, I mean,
689
00:33:37.289 --> 00:33:40.130
that would, it would not be that case at all.
690
00:33:40.829 --> 00:33:42.690
And then Tennessee as well was the other one.
691
00:33:43.109 --> 00:33:44.150
Yeah.
692
00:33:44.230 --> 00:33:44.349
Yeah.
693
00:33:44.369 --> 00:33:45.009
Those numbers. Yeah.
694
00:33:45.029 --> 00:33:45.150
Yeah.
695
00:33:45.170 --> 00:33:47.710
I was going to say you were giving the cumulative
696
00:33:47.750 --> 00:33:50.589
four weeks on the EPA per play pass and rush,
697
00:33:50.730 --> 00:33:51.990
at least against the Rams.
698
00:33:52.690 --> 00:33:54.849
You see, you saw some improvement in play and pass.
699
00:33:56.279 --> 00:34:01.240
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, their rush also, just talking about it,
700
00:34:01.269 --> 00:34:04.230
I mean, the league average is minus 0.07, and the
701
00:34:04.329 --> 00:34:06.630
Eagles have yet to have that. And I know we've
702
00:34:06.650 --> 00:34:09.869
talked about how their run defense has been, like, okay
703
00:34:09.909 --> 00:34:12.909
this year. Not in this game, at least from an
704
00:34:12.989 --> 00:34:13.929
EPA standpoint.
705
00:34:14.889 --> 00:34:16.409
Just haven't been able to put it all together.
706
00:34:16.989 --> 00:34:17.190
No.
707
00:34:18.130 --> 00:34:19.610
All right, let's take a look at their defense from
708
00:34:19.650 --> 00:34:22.969
a DVOA standpoint versus the Rams and for the season.
709
00:34:23.489 --> 00:34:28.099
Again, negative is better, and they were only negative– from
710
00:34:28.360 --> 00:34:34.219
an overall standpoint in the first game. Pretty consistently above.
711
00:34:35.550 --> 00:34:41.090
It was 3.6% against Chicago and then 3.3% LA, and
712
00:34:41.130 --> 00:34:45.570
the season's 3.6%. So not a great place to be.
713
00:34:46.150 --> 00:34:48.449
And then again, we look at passing and rushing, and again,
714
00:34:48.869 --> 00:34:53.130
the ranks matter way more. They're the 23rd unit in
715
00:34:53.190 --> 00:34:56.710
pass defense and 19th in rushing. defense.
716
00:34:57.030 --> 00:34:57.630
So, yeah.
717
00:34:57.909 --> 00:34:59.449
So this is a good qualifier, right?
718
00:34:59.510 --> 00:35:02.880
Because you said negatives are good numbers for a defense,
719
00:35:02.940 --> 00:35:07.360
but it's also contextual, right? Minus 7.6 passing DVOA against
720
00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:09.789
the Rams might sound good, but it was only ranked 25th.
721
00:35:10.179 --> 00:35:10.400
Yep.
722
00:35:11.340 --> 00:35:14.340
Okay. So it's not that, that just means they were
723
00:35:14.360 --> 00:35:18.110
just okay playing defense past defense against the rain. Well, no,
724
00:35:18.190 --> 00:35:19.030
they were not that good.
725
00:35:19.070 --> 00:35:21.849
They were relative to the rest of the league. No.
726
00:35:22.429 --> 00:35:22.610
Right.
727
00:35:23.050 --> 00:35:23.289
Okay.
728
00:35:23.809 --> 00:35:24.210
Not great.
729
00:35:24.750 --> 00:35:25.829
No, not great at all.
730
00:35:26.469 --> 00:35:30.329
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731
00:35:30.590 --> 00:35:33.289
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and up. All right. We, we've been talking about pressure
746
00:36:28.440 --> 00:36:31.519
and sack conversion. Now you saw Jonathan Grenard get some pressure.
747
00:36:31.539 --> 00:36:33.719
You saw, I think Nolan Smith had a sack when
748
00:36:34.860 --> 00:36:38.019
Grenard was healthy. He was being disruptive, but then of
749
00:36:38.079 --> 00:36:40.409
course he went out with an injury. Yeah.
750
00:36:40.530 --> 00:36:43.489
And I, I started by putting that chart together that
751
00:36:43.530 --> 00:36:46.130
we've done each week where we looked at each player's
752
00:36:46.150 --> 00:36:49.090
individual contributions. And I think we saved that for like
753
00:36:49.130 --> 00:36:51.869
maybe a mid season review, because I think we need
754
00:36:51.889 --> 00:36:54.210
to talk about how the overall unit is doing, not
755
00:36:54.289 --> 00:36:58.329
individuals because we, Exactly what I said, where their pressures
756
00:36:58.389 --> 00:37:00.449
are not turning to sacks, I wanted to show that.
757
00:37:01.309 --> 00:37:05.329
I got the league average for pressure rate, sack rate,
758
00:37:05.690 --> 00:37:09.909
and pressure to sack. Let's just talk about each of them.
759
00:37:10.269 --> 00:37:13.369
The NFL average pressure rate, and that's just how many
760
00:37:13.449 --> 00:37:17.250
pressures you get over past plays you see, is 38%.
761
00:37:17.250 --> 00:37:21.090
The Eagles are at 37.8%. They're right about average.
762
00:37:21.610 --> 00:37:22.739
They're right about average.
763
00:37:24.360 --> 00:37:26.280
Which they shouldn't be. They should be above average with
764
00:37:26.480 --> 00:37:27.639
the pass rushers that they have.
765
00:37:27.840 --> 00:37:31.260
You would think. And the thing is, they were not average.
766
00:37:31.300 --> 00:37:33.119
They haven't been average in the last two weeks. They've
767
00:37:33.139 --> 00:37:35.519
been below average. Right. But then you look at their
768
00:37:35.559 --> 00:37:41.679
sack rate. The average NFL sack rate is 6.24%. You
769
00:37:41.699 --> 00:37:43.199
look at the Eagles on the season, they're 2.8%. You
770
00:37:43.239 --> 00:37:48.010
look at it against the Rams, 1.9%.
771
00:37:48.010 --> 00:37:52.090
So even though they're getting pressure at league average, they're
772
00:37:52.110 --> 00:37:54.010
getting sacks at far under the.
773
00:37:54.960 --> 00:37:57.539
And then let's look at it from how they're turning
774
00:37:57.559 --> 00:38:00.219
their pressures into sacks, right? Right. And that's where it's
775
00:38:00.260 --> 00:38:02.539
really important is your finishing, right?
776
00:38:02.920 --> 00:38:03.139
Yep.
777
00:38:03.239 --> 00:38:06.780
The league average is, you know, 16% of pressures turn
778
00:38:06.800 --> 00:38:09.719
into sacks. The Eagles on the season, 7.4%. Wow. Against
779
00:38:09.760 --> 00:38:10.400
the Rams, 6.3%. Not good.
780
00:38:10.420 --> 00:38:13.030
No, that's bad.
781
00:38:13.039 --> 00:38:14.510
The 0.0% against the Bears is even worse. It is.
782
00:38:24.610 --> 00:38:27.440
but they have 54 pressures and only four sacks on
783
00:38:27.519 --> 00:38:28.599
the season. Wow.
784
00:38:29.280 --> 00:38:32.139
So that's, that's, it's almost, I don't want to say
785
00:38:32.159 --> 00:38:35.300
that's an anomaly because it's four weeks now, but I,
786
00:38:35.739 --> 00:38:39.599
I kind of feel like if you're going to get
787
00:38:40.019 --> 00:38:43.269
pressure at league average rate, and I think that'll improve,
788
00:38:43.309 --> 00:38:44.690
I suspect I could be wrong.
789
00:38:44.730 --> 00:38:45.630
Maybe I'm Mr.
790
00:38:45.670 --> 00:38:48.469
Brightside. I don't know. I do feel like the pressure
791
00:38:48.489 --> 00:38:52.750
to sack conversion will get a little bit better. Um,
792
00:38:53.010 --> 00:38:56.690
but I think for what the expectations are being a
793
00:38:56.750 --> 00:38:58.030
little bit better is not good enough.
794
00:38:58.590 --> 00:39:01.219
Agreed. Agreed. But I did think this was a really
795
00:39:01.320 --> 00:39:04.619
interesting result and it kind of fit the theme I've
796
00:39:04.639 --> 00:39:06.659
been trying to say is one of the biggest issues
797
00:39:06.679 --> 00:39:08.960
with this defense, because you think about it, if you
798
00:39:08.980 --> 00:39:11.480
get pressures and you get sacks, it makes your backend better.
799
00:39:11.860 --> 00:39:15.420
Your defensive backs will play at the level because there's pressure.
800
00:39:15.460 --> 00:39:17.889
The quarterback feels urgency is going to make mistakes. Like
801
00:39:17.949 --> 00:39:22.639
that's you, you need the front to be. And that's
802
00:39:23.000 --> 00:39:26.110
usually something the Eagles do very well. They've historically done
803
00:39:26.449 --> 00:39:29.050
very well, but not this year. They're just not getting home.
804
00:39:31.170 --> 00:39:34.010
Do you think that there's, I mean, so they've played
805
00:39:35.190 --> 00:39:38.679
in three of the four weeks, they have played offenses
806
00:39:38.780 --> 00:39:43.519
that are designed to be McVay slash Shanahan style, right?
807
00:39:43.559 --> 00:39:48.340
Obviously the Rams, McVay, Ben Johnson's offenses, that And then
808
00:39:48.380 --> 00:39:50.840
week one, David Blau's offense is that. Is this just,
809
00:39:51.480 --> 00:39:54.730
maybe we can explore without having to like do thousands
810
00:39:54.769 --> 00:39:59.070
of charts, just like the greater trend. I mean, you
811
00:39:59.110 --> 00:39:59.789
already have it here.
812
00:39:59.809 --> 00:40:01.389
The league average is 16%.
813
00:40:01.389 --> 00:40:03.969
I just wonder if the Eagles are facing a couple
814
00:40:03.989 --> 00:40:06.809
of these offenses compared to maybe some other teams where
815
00:40:07.210 --> 00:40:08.070
the ball is just.
816
00:40:07.949 --> 00:40:10.590
Designed naturally to get out quickly. I don't know.
817
00:40:10.809 --> 00:40:14.079
Maybe I'm just reaching for excuses, but it just doesn't seem,
818
00:40:14.099 --> 00:40:16.280
it doesn't compute in my head correctly, you know?
819
00:40:16.909 --> 00:40:19.650
I would say that's part of it, but I I'd
820
00:40:19.690 --> 00:40:22.719
also say that this just, they can't get the sacks.
821
00:40:22.820 --> 00:40:25.300
They just, they can't, they haven't been. And I, and
822
00:40:25.320 --> 00:40:29.119
I think, yes, the ball has been getting out probably
823
00:40:29.159 --> 00:40:31.840
a little bit faster, but not in every game. I mean,
824
00:40:31.860 --> 00:40:35.860
I just, they're, they have not been, I mean, we
825
00:40:35.889 --> 00:40:37.429
look at the time to throw in the time to
826
00:40:37.469 --> 00:40:39.550
pressure stats. We've done that in the past. I mean,
827
00:40:39.869 --> 00:40:42.070
they're not that far off from average of the teams
828
00:40:42.090 --> 00:40:44.610
that they've been playing. So I think what you're seeing
829
00:40:44.650 --> 00:40:48.170
is what you're getting. I don't think that excuse holds
830
00:40:48.309 --> 00:40:51.409
full mustard for this team. I think that what you're
831
00:40:51.429 --> 00:40:54.670
seeing is what you get against any team, honestly. Maybe
832
00:40:54.710 --> 00:40:57.349
a little bit better, but I think that's what this
833
00:40:57.389 --> 00:40:58.789
team is this year, unfortunately.
834
00:40:59.929 --> 00:41:03.309
Absolutely fair. All right, now we'll sum it all up.
835
00:41:03.349 --> 00:41:06.570
The four takeaways from this loss against the Rams, Sam,
836
00:41:06.590 --> 00:41:06.989
go for it.
837
00:41:07.530 --> 00:41:10.769
Offense couldn't sustain drives. We talked about it. 0 for 12,
838
00:41:10.769 --> 00:41:13.980
one-third down. That obviously is going to be here. What
839
00:41:14.260 --> 00:41:18.659
I just, formation tendencies stood out, right? I mean, they
840
00:41:18.920 --> 00:41:23.809
were running almost 80% under center and passing almost 70%
841
00:41:23.809 --> 00:41:28.010
from shotgun. Can't do that. Need some variety. Pressure isn't
842
00:41:28.030 --> 00:41:31.269
becoming sacks, what we just talked about. You know, their
843
00:41:31.369 --> 00:41:34.780
pressure rate is about average, but they're just, they're not
844
00:41:35.179 --> 00:41:38.500
able to get it into, like they're about half of
845
00:41:38.559 --> 00:41:41.099
the average in terms of converting them into sacks. Not good.
846
00:41:41.500 --> 00:41:44.860
Not good at all. Nope. And then I put the
847
00:41:44.880 --> 00:41:48.030
run defense struggled because I've made emphasis. The run defense
848
00:41:48.050 --> 00:41:50.429
has been okay, but really the defense just struggled. I
849
00:41:50.449 --> 00:41:53.869
think that's just probably a more fair thing to say.
850
00:41:53.909 --> 00:41:56.840
I mean, you look at where they, where they have that,
851
00:41:57.800 --> 00:42:01.800
plus 22.7, but they're the 25th unit, right? Yeah. For
852
00:42:01.820 --> 00:42:03.230
both run and pass defense.
853
00:42:03.710 --> 00:42:06.789
Yeah, but you're right, though, that in order to get
854
00:42:06.829 --> 00:42:08.710
your pressures and get your set, you have to put
855
00:42:08.789 --> 00:42:11.769
teams in unmanageable down and distances, and if you're not
856
00:42:11.849 --> 00:42:13.309
stopping the run, then you're not doing that.
857
00:42:13.389 --> 00:42:13.630
Correct.
858
00:42:13.650 --> 00:42:15.239
So it's fair to point that out.
859
00:42:15.550 --> 00:42:18.559
Yeah, but that's the four main takeaways, I'd say.
860
00:42:19.659 --> 00:42:23.139
All right, Sam. We'll see if the Eagles can improve
861
00:42:23.179 --> 00:42:25.380
upon that, and of course, in our next.
862
00:42:25.260 --> 00:42:26.500
Episode, we will preview.
863
00:42:27.210 --> 00:42:30.230
the Eagles versus the Jaguars in Monday, which could get very,
864
00:42:30.789 --> 00:42:34.869
very ugly given the injury situation that the Eagles have.
865
00:42:36.050 --> 00:42:39.159
Great charts. I think we've streamlined a lot of the
866
00:42:39.199 --> 00:42:41.340
good analytics. And then, of course, I like the takeaways
867
00:42:41.400 --> 00:42:45.860
at the end. Hope everybody enjoys and appreciates the adaptation
868
00:42:45.900 --> 00:42:49.760
and the evolution of this great show. So for Sam Finkel,
869
00:42:50.219 --> 00:42:53.159
I'm Jeff Mosher. You have been watching Inside the Data
870
00:42:53.659 --> 00:42:54.699
on Inside the Birds.