How Operation Sindoor Redefined Indian Warfare | In Our Defence |S3 | Ep 50

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This is India Today Podcasts.
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Welcome to Season three of Another Defense, the podcast that
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takes you inside the world of conflict. I'm your host,
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Deve Goswami, and every week I sit down with experts
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and retired officers from the Army, Navy and Air Force
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to decode all things to do with India security and
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explore what it truly means to serve. Get ready for
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stories of strategy, sacrifice and strength.
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This is in Our Defense.
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This week marks a year since India likely forever changed
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the template of how it chooses to respond to terrorist attacks,
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especially those sponsored and launched from Pakistan. India on May
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seventh last year launched Operations Sindhur, which was supposed to
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be a one off strike against terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan
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that basically became then a larger military operation to to
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deliver what I think was a strategic message to Pakistan.
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Operations Sindhur has had several undertones. There were strategic undertones,
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there are diplomatic undertones.
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There's also political undertones.
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As this as we as we look back to one
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year of Operations Sindur on this episode, I want to
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look at the military objectives, the military achievements, and the
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military messaging that India was able to stand across during
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this operation. And for that I have with me as
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always my guest, how are you hey?
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Good? They're good to be back. One year already, Yeah,
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one year already.
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You know, before we began recording, we were talking about
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the whatever is going on in the Middle East, and
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you said that Tehran has shown the world and the
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US that never get into wars that you cannot win exactly.
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I think it's quite apt for you to say that
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just as we began recording this episode, because last year,
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I think the Indian military and the Indian government sort
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of showed the world that in a time this was
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when Russia Ukraine war has been going on for so long,
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at a time when wars seemed to be long lasting,
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you had a precise set of goals, you had a
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precise set of aims, and you had that limited four
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day conflict that you were able to end on your
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own terms.
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Right.
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Uh.
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We talk about, like I said, some of the military objectives,
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some of the military learnings that uh, you know that
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that per sen over those over those four days. But
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I want you first of all to look back at
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the operation you've covered the world of defense national security
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for nearly three decades now over that Under that, I'm
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not sure, but around that, uh, and you've seen India's
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responses to different kinds of terrorist tacks. You've had you
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you had the incursion of Cargill which led to a
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limited war, you had the twenty six eleven attacks, You've
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had the train bombings, you've had very recently the Hellcam attack,
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you've had the attack before that. You've seen India's responses
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to different kinds of rest backs. So when you look
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back with the benefit of hindsight, not just to Operations
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Sindhu last year, but also to all of india responses,
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what do you think are those three four factors? Are
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three four takeaways for which you think Operations stands out
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for you?
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Well, you know they've firstly, you know what happened during
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operations Hindur. I think is it's a watershed in the
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way India will choose to fight future wars. Right. There
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are enormous lessons for us here, and I think a
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lot of it has to do with the march of technology.
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Of course, the fact that you have the ability to
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punish your adversary without actually having to cross the border
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or deploy troops in the way that you had to
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do in previous you know, in response to previous terror
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attacks and stuff. So that is what operations in those
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biggest takeaways, we'll of course talk about that. But I
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think over the last couple of decades, see how it
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started is that in the eighties, And this is what
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we've been talking in previous episodes. When in the eighties
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when Pakistan got nuclear weapons, which is you know when
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eighty four, it's almost four decades when they got their
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nuclear weapons, they had a couple of them bombs in
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the basement. The Chinese had tested it for them. What
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began shaping in jhq rabal Pindi, which is the headquarters
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of the Pakistan military, is a sword and shield strategy
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which began with General Zia when he got the bomb.
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And then you go on to his successor, a very
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influential and very less studied army chief called General Misys
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Islambag and he is the one who kind of crafted
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this strategy of protecting these non conventional assets of theirs,
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that is your terrorist proxies with nuclear weapons, and that
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kept getting the fined over the years. Musheroff of course
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took it to a new level and Muni has continued
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that strategy until now. India did not have any effective
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response for this. We had a conventional response in the
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sense that you would mobilize your web, you know, army
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and threatened to strike at Pakistan. And the biggest example
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of that was after the attack on Parliament two thousand
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and one. You mobilize the entire Indian army and then
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you had to demobilize and you had to, you know,
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withdraw them from the borders on some very you know,
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flimsy mission accomplished grounds, but the fact is that you
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did not achieve your objectives, your aims at that time
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because you simply had no way of punishing Pakistan for
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supporting terror or even destroying a terrorist infrastructure inside Pakistan.
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So when you cut to that and you come to Sindhur,
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in fact, you start at ten years back. You start
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at the cross border rates. After the Uri terror attack,
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you have one set of shallow cross border attacks using commandos.
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Then in nineteen in response to another terror attack, that
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is the Pulwama suicide bombing where FORTYCRPF troopers were killed,
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you have one attack on Jaba top in Balakot Mirajas
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go in and drop PGB precision guided bombs. That's a
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one off attack, right, the first time that we've crossed
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international borders to attack a terrorist camp. And now with
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Sindhur in twenty twenty five, you have a larger set
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of attacks, retaliatory attacks across the linked and breadth of
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Pakistan then, which actually begin as attacks on terrorist infrastructure,
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which then go on to striking in the Pakistan military establishment,
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infrastructure and all. But it's important to note that these
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are not major escalatory moves in the sense that it's
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a gradual move up the escalation ladder, and at each
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level you've given Pakistan the option to de escalate. So
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I think what we've seen last year in May twenty
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twenty five is not just a very considered strategy to
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tackle terrorist attacks emanating from Pakistan. How to target the
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infrastructure of terrorism that exists in Pakistan. And most importantly,
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and this is something that my friend and colleague Kern
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lovers to keep saying, selection and maintenance of aim. You know,
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that is the fundamental building block of any military operation.
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You select your aim and then you just go for it.
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Don't get caught off by too many other things, and
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which is I think all of these worked to the
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Indian leadership's credit last year when they identified what the
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aim was, which was to tell Pakistan that supporting terrorism
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cannot be a low cost option to strike a terrorist infrastructure,
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to strike at the military infrastructure in Pakistan only after
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we were hit. So in that's and there's huge messaging.
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And then finally you had the Prime Minister coming out
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in twelfth of May, which I thought was interesting because
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it was just on the anniversary of the pokeron Blast
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of nineteen ninety eight and what he said there those
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that speech of his I think will go down, at
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least in the strategic community, it will be one of
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the most significant speeches made by an Indian Prime minister
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because he spelt out this new dynamic where how India
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would tackle terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Sindur is actually
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the big picture that we saw, where how we would
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you know, deploy this escalation ladder to strike at terrorism
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emanating from Pakistan and we would not be deterred by
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nuclear weapons the presence of the Pakistan military. We would
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find a way of even striking the Pakistan military. You're
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not afraid of doing that even using missiles and the
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air force. Yes, so I think in that sense Sindhu
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was a landmark military operation. And if you see war
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warfare after Sindhu in you know, not Russia Ukraine, but
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because that's an unending war literally, but you see it
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in Iran, US, Iran, Israel, you see you know, echoes
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of that in these conflicts as well. So we are
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literally like the first people to come out with it,
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non contact kinetic warfare. We established the benchmark over there
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and conflict termination, yeah, which terminated. Yeah, I think it's
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the most important thing. I think if you ask me otherwise,
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you risk the you know, you ran the danger of
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getting caught into this unending war. It would go on
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and you know, you'd keep striking in pakistaniy'd strike you,
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or they would pull other countries in. But it's they
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did what they thought was in their national interest on
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the tenth May when they asked for a ceasfire Pakistan
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sid enough is enough, and then they continued the I
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think in a different domain, which is a narrative warfare,
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and that also you know, we kind of spoken. But
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if you look at it purely from a military, kinetic,
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strategic messaging operation. I think we achieved most of our
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objectives with this.
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Yeah, yeah, good.
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Point about you know the importance of picking a or
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aims and sticking to it. And I think that Iran,
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the Iran War is a very good example of that,
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where the US seems have to have lost sense of
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what its actual aims were because of which it's so
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sort of going going around in circles figuring out how
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to end this, end this conflict which.
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Is pause right now. But you know, games have not
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really really I mean.
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Rubio seem to indicate that it's over, the pinetic phases over,
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but you never know. I mean, you know, Trump Man
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just come out and override him and say that, you know,
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Rubio is exceeded as brief or something.
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But I mean, in fact, yesterday Trump said I'm going
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to get ships out of Hormuzondy said, hey, hey, I'm
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going to do that because you RAN's behaving nicely.
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So all right, so great.
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Uh.
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Something I want to talk about something that.
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We've uh referred to briefly on this episode multiple times.
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You've i think written about this or are going to
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write about this for for the for our website as well.
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Is what I think options ind I won't say exposed
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per se, because this is something that's a reality. It's
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it's been existing for for for ages. But it put
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the focus on, brought the focus on. Rather, is Pakistan's
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lack of geographical depth something that referred to? So you know,
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I even back and look to the map, so it's
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quite if you, if you, if you, if you see,
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if you see it, it's very obvious. Something that hasn't
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struck you so much up until options Indur, but it should,
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you know, be very fairly striking Pakistan. I think if
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you look at east West, I think all of it
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is around six hundred or seven hundred kilometers uh and
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uh what India has been able to show din options
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in lu Risky you can easily target around one third
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of that land with either your air force or with
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your ground based UH missile force.
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So on Meetain.
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For example, if you look at the map of the
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air bases that the Air Force in the Internet was
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struck in Pakistan, they are run all the way from
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north to all these Yeah, OK, right down. Tell me
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what is this lack of geographical depth that Pakistan is
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afflicted with which it can't really do much about because
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that's geography, right unless it sort of invade Afghanistan and
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takes over half of of that land. So what is
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this lack of lack of depth? And second, very importantly,
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is it now that we have advanced systems like the
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S four hundred, uh, there are fil fighter jet with
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the Meteor beyond visual range missile missiles UH and the
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Ramo superstoning missiles. Do you need to have technology? Do
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you need to have military equipment like this for you
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to be able to exploit Pakistan's disadvantage?
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Yeah?
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Absolutely, And I think you know, one of the reasons
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why this is, you know, the geography of Pakistan is
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a problem right now, is that you know, it was
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maybe in the seventies or eighties, it might have been
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an asset to have your basis, you know, strung along
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the international border, you know, because you had aircraft that
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had barely any you know, Make twenty one was like
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your top fighter aircraft like fifty years back, which had
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one hour you know, flying in durance a little over
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an hour. But now when you're looking at it fifty
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years later, the march of technology, you know, you have
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this persistent overwatch through satellites, through drones. And you have missiles, right,
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you have missiles like the promos, you have hypersonic missiles
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coming up a territory that seemed to be you know,
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beyond your reach. It now it At one point, if
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I could describe it, it was like a you know,
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a large area, a vast geographical area. But now because
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of technology, you're able to convert into a barrel. It's
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literally you're looking at it like that, and every part
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of that location, which is about seven hundred thousand square kilometers,
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is covered by your observation and your strike and you
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can do this. And this is what I think we
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showed during operations Sindur was that you had the ability
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to strike at targets without crossing the international border, non contact,
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non kinetic warfare. So it's completely changed the dynamic of warfare.
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And those assets that you mentioned, of course the rafiles
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there with a meteor, but also these two other very
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significant assets, this S four hundred, which we discussed in
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the last episode of In Our Defense and the BrahMos
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to Russian origin weapons, where the S four hundred, which
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is an air defense system, has the ability to deny airspace,
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not just protect your airspace, but deny the adversary the
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use of his airspace. It's such a long range precision
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weapon three hundred kilometers and Brumos which has the ability
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to go to about eight hundred kilometers, so you have
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the ability to cover all of Pakistan. Then it's only
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a matter of how many missiles do you have versus
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how many targets he has, right, so you have the
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ability to paralyze him without actually going in for the
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old kind of what you had armored trusts across the desert,
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as General Sundar jenvisaged it. You know, during our brass
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tacks you have too multiple trusts and all. But of
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course the objectives there are entirely different. Fent was of
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you know, capturing territory and all of that. But I
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think in today's times it's very clear. The leadership is
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very clear. It is our leadership is very clear that
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wars were fought for getting territory. Might not be such
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a good idea at least presently. Who knows about the future,
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but as of now, they do not see us fighting
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wars for capturing territory or so now because of technology
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and the ability that you've seen a use case of
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it in Obsindour. But there will be future and you know,
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problems like this where you will have terrorist attacks and
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the perpetrators will be hiding across the border and you
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want to punish them, then you have these kind of
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weapons to strike at them. So I think that has
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been the big lesson from Obsindura and the entire paradigm
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of war fighting because of these technological tools like ballistic missiles,
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conventional ballistic missiles, missiles like the BrahMos, the S four hundred,
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And this is not a very India specific thing. It's
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happening across the world. Look at what Iran has done.
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I mean, it's actually held the most powerful country in
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the world at bay for nearly two months now, right,
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I mean instead of the Hormos is a different matter.
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But if you look at the way they have been
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able to strike at multiple targets across starting from the
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Mediterranean right up to the Arabian Sea, all the GCC
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countries were targeted, all the military infrastructure has been targeted.
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This is the first time in the history of warfare.
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I think, I don't think I'm mistaken on this that
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one country has simultaneously attacked so many countries across nearly
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two thousand kilometers. So you know, technology today allows you
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to do that. You have missiles, you have drones, so
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even countries that even don't have an air force are
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able to imagine damage. Yeah, Iran, and you know Trump
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keeps saying that that they don't have an FOS, they
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don't have a navy. These are all old war fighting
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paradigms seen from the perspective of countries Like I'm not
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saying you don't need a navy, you don't need an
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air force. You do need them, but your options of
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sending the navy and the air force are not as
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pressing on you as it is. This is far easier.
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This is a far easier way for you to prosecute
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war fighting rather than you know, sending your warships into
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harms Way or your fighter jets into harms way. You
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can launch these salvos of missiles and you know, drone
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attacks overall your adverse, which is what the Iranians have done,
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and it's optimum war fighting. You optimize it to your
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capabilities and your need to preserve your own forces, hold
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it in reserve while you expend your one way attack
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munitionitions or your cruise missiles or ballistic missiles and all that.
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So I think this has created a very big paradigm
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for countries that have built their entire armed forces for
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a kind of war fighting that doesn't exist anymore. And
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it's these are voices coming out of the United States.
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They've built this massive military machine over sixty or seventy years,
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which was meant to fight in adversary that no longer exists,
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that is the USSR, which they thought they can reshape
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and reorient to fight the new adversary, which is China.
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But then they discovered that their nuverse he's moving ahead
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with drones and hypersonic missiles. Now they need to catch
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up to you know, find this this march of technologies
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is brutal. And you've seen it in Russia, Ukraine, you know.
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And I go back to this. The first demo that
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I got of swarm warfare was it was it was
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for India today television battlecry. We this was twenty twenty one.
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This friend of mine who runs this thing, he's a friend.
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Now we first met him. Then turn my Wankar bought
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Lave Dynamics. He says, come, I'll show you something. Aeti Delhi,
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one of their playgrounds of football field. He just lined
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up all these swarm drones and he just demonstrated he
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was flying them together. It was a couple of three
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hundred drones, I think together, and he said, this is
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a swarm. He said, this is the future of war fighting.
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So you know, from twenty twenty two at Delhi and
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within a few months you saw this Russia Ukraine and
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today you have you know, first person view drones. I mean,
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it's tragic if you look at it, the kind of
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videos that are coming out of Russia Ukraine, like individual
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soldiers are being hunted down by you know, these kamikazi drones,
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these first person new drones. You're literally looking into the
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eyes of your adversary as you kill him. You know,
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it's that horrible, this kind of videos. But that's how
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that's where technology has brought you. And we're seeing it
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all around us, right, so you can kind of close
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your eyes and say, no, no, this is not thing.
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I will fight the way I'm you know, meant to
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fight with, you know, all the tools of the old thing,
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and I need those old tools to fight the today's
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wars around that. Maybe not, maybe you need to fight
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today's and tomorrow's wars with new tools, you know, or
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find new users for.
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Your old tools, right right, you know, taking the point
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of Pakistan's lack of geographical depth a bit forward and
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moving it to the maritime domain, because that's not we
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didn't really see any action. Not a lot of actions
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happened during the four days of operations in the UH
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And I want to I want your thoughts on whether
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you would agree with me when I say that, you know,
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when it comes to Pakistan, the smallest of your three services,
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the Navy, is actually the most lethal, which is probably
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why India chose not to use it a lot during
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at least the initial phases of operations. We know for
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a fact that in the escalation ladder that the leadership
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had the military leadership had had planned out it was
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going to be at some at some point.
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This is something ADM promo.
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If i'm if I'm said at a PC that the
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Navy was very much part of.
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This lad I actually spoke about the escalation ladder. Ladder
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worked out.
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So yeah, So back to my question, back back to
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my thesis that would you agree when it comes to
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Pakistan that our navy, the Indian Navy, is the most
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lethal because it can really hold that country hostage.
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Yeah, it is, there's no doubt about it. Because you know,
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when you're looking at the geography of Pakistan, it's like,
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you know, two ends of Pakistan are like this l right,
386
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so this is your line of control and this is
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the international border, and this is the maritime boundary, which
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is about it's about a thousand kilometers. They have a
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sea coast of trade. It's just straight right, they're no hide.
390
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You can't hide exactly. You're on the open. You're just
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faced with the Arabian Cea over there. Now, look at
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the geography just a couple of one hundred kilometers to
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Pakistan's west, which is Iran. Iran has shaped its war
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fighting according to its terrain and geography. They've got the
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worst navy in the world. Probably got a couple of
396
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ships they beat up. They sank one of their frigates,
397
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a very tragic thing with the US sank off Sri Lanka.
398
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But that was the Knekey navy, you know. But the
399
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actual thing, the navy with a bite other speedboats. Yes,
400
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so you know, Trum keeps saying Trump and he said,
401
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they've got this thing with numbers. So they say, you know,
402
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we've sung one hundred and fifty ships, or you've run
403
00:23:07.039 --> 00:23:09.599
the Iranian navies at the bottom of the sea. And
404
00:23:09.599 --> 00:23:11.720
I keep saying, that's not the Iranian navy. The Iranian
405
00:23:11.799 --> 00:23:15.160
navy is the speedboats. Those are. That is a tactic
406
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that they have perfected, knowing, you know, working around the geography.
407
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They know they sit on the most valuable maritime stretch
408
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anywhere in the world, right one of only seven choke points.
409
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This is a country that has worked on its strategy
410
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around maritime choke points. There are seven maritime choke points
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in the world. Iran directly controls one, yes, and it
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has the ability to influence two others. And it possibly
413
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this is a hypothesis, but I mean, I've done the
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thing on missile ranges. It possibly has the ability to
415
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target of fourth, which is the Strait of Bosphorus near Turkey,
416
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which links the Black Seat to the Mediterranean. Think of
417
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it that one country has built up all its capabilities
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to regulate marinetime traffic to its strategic interests. So they've
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used that, They've played on their strings. See what Pakistan
420
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did was that they've created a navy. They got those
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seed denial assets. They were the first to introduce submarines here,
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by the way, very way ahead of that time. In
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the sixties they got an American submarine. Now, what happens
424
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is that the Gazi the Pianis ghazi Ad which sank
425
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of Chaka Patama, was sunk by Us of Shaka Patnam
426
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in seventy one second or third of December. Now coming
427
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back to twenty twenty five, with a sea coast of
428
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a nearly thousand kilometers is open to the sea, you
429
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have no defense. You can't run, you can't hide. The
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missiles that are going to come at you necessarily will
431
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not necessarily come from the sea. They could come from
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the land. It would come from Gujara exactly. You could
433
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have naval coast batteries firing straight along the and destroying
434
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all your ports and harbors and ensuring not one ship
435
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or submarine goes out to see So you're seriously challenged geographically, right,
436
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you don't have a counter to this strategy. Now, that
437
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explains why Field Marshall Muneir went to southi Abia, why
438
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he went to the United States. It is to compensate
439
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for this lack of geographical depth. That look, I know
440
00:25:27.079 --> 00:25:30.599
I've got hammered on the tenth. Military to military, they
441
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know they got beaten on the tenth, Right, don't look
442
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at the spin and the you know how many jets
443
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and all that. That was a spin that they put
444
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out to save face. Man to man. Military to military,
445
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they know they took heavy losses. Their bases were shattered,
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their radars were hold. They've just managed to fix many
447
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of those bases. One year later, they've lost jets, like
448
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something like five jets one area, one of the EVACS platforms.
449
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They've lost a couple of jets their on the ground. Now,
450
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when you put all of this together, they've realized that, look,
451
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they're extremely vulnerable. They know this dynamic response strategy is
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going to come to them sooner or later. They need
453
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to expand their circle of influence. Maybe the White House
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may not be as favorable the next time, but they
455
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know for sure that Riyah is going to be there
456
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for a very long time. Right, MBS is there, Mama
457
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Bin Salman. They need someone they can call up and say, hey, listen,
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tell the Indians to call up, call off these strikes.
459
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So they've worked their strategy that if you look at it,
460
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their foreign policy is now literally foreign policy, military strategy
461
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has been run by money. So everything that he has
462
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done after Absendur has been to secure Pakistan. If there
463
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is a resumption of hostilities, if India attacks again, what
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do I do next? Because he's realized that we are
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not deterred by nuclear weapons anymore. That worked in the
466
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past and eighties and nineties. This is not to say
467
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that to advocate, you know, some kind of crazy military
468
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response and go and you know, attack Pakistan without any
469
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provocation on things. Our entire strategy for now, this dynamic
470
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response strategy is is based on the fact that it
471
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will respond. It's a responsive strategy. It's not a proactive strategy.
472
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It's not a preemptive strategy. It is only a strategy
473
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that will respond to any kind of incident like this
474
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and will then you know, inflict a lot of unacceptable
475
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damage on Pakistan. And the fact that this strategy now exists,
476
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the dynamic response strategy, and that Pakistan knows about it,
477
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that itself is deterrence. So now they will have to
478
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work around that thing. And you know, this is what
479
00:27:52.480 --> 00:27:55.279
they do all the time. They just and militaries, idle
480
00:27:55.319 --> 00:27:58.599
militaries which rule countries. They're just looking at you know,
481
00:27:58.680 --> 00:28:01.160
what's the next thing going to be, Let's carry out
482
00:28:01.160 --> 00:28:04.160
another exercise. Okay, Indians have come up with d RS.
483
00:28:04.200 --> 00:28:05.799
How do we counter it? You know, what are the
484
00:28:05.839 --> 00:28:09.279
assets that we deploy or do we you know, go
485
00:28:09.440 --> 00:28:13.119
back to tactical nuclear weapons or threatened to strike Indian
486
00:28:13.359 --> 00:28:16.200
you know, targets, in which case they will be bigger retalition.
487
00:28:16.319 --> 00:28:21.000
So it's actually it's a stability instability paradox which we're
488
00:28:21.079 --> 00:28:23.720
going to be looking at for a time. As long
489
00:28:23.759 --> 00:28:26.480
as as as long as Whield Marshall Mouni is there,
490
00:28:26.640 --> 00:28:31.799
you're assured of this, uh, this paradox instability stability paradox. Yeah.
491
00:28:31.839 --> 00:28:31.960
Good.
492
00:28:32.039 --> 00:28:34.200
Your point you brought up South the Araba because I
493
00:28:34.240 --> 00:28:37.160
was actually going to ask you that, you know, if
494
00:28:37.519 --> 00:28:40.920
we are able to see, uh, the fact or the
495
00:28:41.440 --> 00:28:44.440
advantage that Pakistan has geographical LEAs uh and that how
496
00:28:44.480 --> 00:28:47.839
that was sort of sort of that oppositions brought focus
497
00:28:47.920 --> 00:28:50.119
onto that. Yeah, I'm pretty sure even the Pakistani generals
498
00:28:50.119 --> 00:28:51.720
would be able to see that. And they are they
499
00:28:51.799 --> 00:28:53.920
for all they do, they will not be foolish. They
500
00:28:53.920 --> 00:28:55.799
will be thinking of, you know, responses. So the one
501
00:28:55.799 --> 00:28:57.960
that you talk about, how the is a good one,
502
00:28:58.079 --> 00:29:01.440
but then a quick follow up. The point with a
503
00:29:01.440 --> 00:29:04.400
diplomatic solution for a for a for a for a
504
00:29:04.440 --> 00:29:08.599
military problem is that in can always say no. So
505
00:29:08.720 --> 00:29:12.319
do you think we've Pakistan will is still sort of
506
00:29:12.400 --> 00:29:15.880
evolving how to figure out and how to compensate for
507
00:29:16.000 --> 00:29:18.319
this lack of depth problem that you said it has identified.
508
00:29:18.759 --> 00:29:21.160
I think they've more or less figured it out diplomatically
509
00:29:21.200 --> 00:29:24.559
at least why their you know, alliances. They believe that
510
00:29:24.640 --> 00:29:28.400
you know, China, the United States saw their Arabia enough
511
00:29:28.640 --> 00:29:31.200
and yeah, should handle their things, should be enough for
512
00:29:31.319 --> 00:29:35.400
their immediate needs. But they're also working on other things,
513
00:29:35.440 --> 00:29:37.759
maybe you know who knows, with Iran as well. So
514
00:29:37.920 --> 00:29:40.880
they want to a Turkey Let's not forget Turkey, which
515
00:29:40.920 --> 00:29:44.079
is the westernmost anchor of this thing. And you know
516
00:29:44.200 --> 00:29:47.759
that going back to General Zia's thing, which we discussed
517
00:29:47.880 --> 00:29:50.079
a couple of episodes back about how he had this
518
00:29:51.160 --> 00:29:57.920
vision of a you know, a crescent from Turkey to Pakistan,
519
00:29:58.079 --> 00:30:00.920
stretching through Saudi Arabia and and all of that. So
520
00:30:01.039 --> 00:30:04.000
I think that is, you know, when military is like this,
521
00:30:04.920 --> 00:30:07.920
the idle minds they've got everything, they've captured the country,
522
00:30:08.039 --> 00:30:10.960
and then they think grand strategy. Now they don't have
523
00:30:11.400 --> 00:30:14.079
this thing of you know, fighting elections. We are the
524
00:30:14.200 --> 00:30:18.440
things in perpetual election mode, right, you think strategy in
525
00:30:18.519 --> 00:30:22.079
between elections. These guys are doing strategy all the time, right,
526
00:30:22.160 --> 00:30:25.559
They've got nothing else to do. Right, So he they
527
00:30:25.599 --> 00:30:31.680
will be looking at, you know, creating a closer, denser
528
00:30:31.839 --> 00:30:38.480
network of allies Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China, Pakistan. This is
529
00:30:38.519 --> 00:30:40.480
the kind of access that they're looking and they will
530
00:30:40.519 --> 00:30:46.279
try and position India, Yue, Israel against him, you know,
531
00:30:46.359 --> 00:30:49.440
so it is us versus them. Look, so there is
532
00:30:50.000 --> 00:30:53.079
a lot of talk of a Ue Israel you know, proximity,
533
00:30:54.079 --> 00:30:57.079
which is a quasi alliance of sorts. So they will say, look,
534
00:30:57.119 --> 00:30:59.839
we are against these guys, and this is what we
535
00:31:00.039 --> 00:31:03.039
need to do. So this is something that that's not
536
00:31:03.200 --> 00:31:06.200
very unique. If you see, this is exactly what happened
537
00:31:06.240 --> 00:31:10.480
after nineteen seventy one when your two nation theory was repudiated,
538
00:31:10.519 --> 00:31:15.359
after the creation of Bangladesh, Zulfkaributu and then jal Zia.
539
00:31:15.480 --> 00:31:18.599
Then they started reaching out to the larger Islamic world
540
00:31:19.759 --> 00:31:22.400
and they said, this is one of the reasons why
541
00:31:22.599 --> 00:31:26.279
the bomb became so important. When you're the only Islamic
542
00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:29.319
country with a bomb. It gives you a certain kind
543
00:31:29.319 --> 00:31:31.880
of leverage that no other country has. And you look
544
00:31:31.920 --> 00:31:35.599
at it in this way. Turkey, the inheritors of the
545
00:31:35.640 --> 00:31:38.880
Ottoman Empire, right, they don't have nuclear weapons, and they
546
00:31:38.920 --> 00:31:40.759
are a NATO member state. You know, they have all
547
00:31:40.799 --> 00:31:44.559
these problems they want to get into the EU. Saudi Arabia,
548
00:31:45.000 --> 00:31:48.920
custodian of the Holy moss has a military not been
549
00:31:48.960 --> 00:31:52.440
tested in combat, has Us Basis on its soil, is
550
00:31:52.519 --> 00:31:57.480
faced with a resurgent Tehran but has no nuclear weapons,
551
00:31:57.599 --> 00:32:01.799
but has a lot of money. And then Pakistan nuclear weapons,
552
00:32:02.519 --> 00:32:06.640
no economy to speak of, has a fairly good military.
553
00:32:08.359 --> 00:32:10.440
So this is a marriage of convenience. You're looking at
554
00:32:10.480 --> 00:32:14.079
this new kind of access of uh you know, a
555
00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:17.359
convenience which a lot of these countries will bring stuff
556
00:32:17.359 --> 00:32:19.720
to the table, which Saudi Arabia has got the money
557
00:32:20.160 --> 00:32:23.519
and the vision. Turkey has a technology. Let's not forget this.
558
00:32:23.680 --> 00:32:27.680
They just unveil the ICBM six thousand kilometer ICBA and
559
00:32:27.799 --> 00:32:29.880
I was thinking that for a country that doesn't have
560
00:32:30.000 --> 00:32:32.480
nuclear weapons, what exactly you're going to deliver at over
561
00:32:32.519 --> 00:32:35.200
six thousand kilometers? I mean it's like it's a very
562
00:32:35.279 --> 00:32:39.319
expensive way to deliver a warhead at that distance. So
563
00:32:40.319 --> 00:32:44.759
quite possibly this is something Turkey indicating that, you know,
564
00:32:45.799 --> 00:32:47.640
if there's going to be a warhead, it's going to
565
00:32:47.720 --> 00:32:49.160
come from you know where.
566
00:32:49.359 --> 00:32:53.440
Yeah, actually, that's a good point you made that, you know,
567
00:32:54.279 --> 00:32:57.920
just hypothetically speaking, you know, what's to stop us MUNI
568
00:32:58.000 --> 00:33:00.799
from storing a couple of nuclear war heads in Turkey?
569
00:33:01.000 --> 00:33:02.680
Just enngaged something happens.
570
00:33:02.759 --> 00:33:05.440
Yeah, but there is a precedent to that. There's a
571
00:33:05.480 --> 00:33:08.680
lot of investigative reporting which way back in the eighties,
572
00:33:08.720 --> 00:33:12.559
again taking back to the time of Zia, where Saudi
573
00:33:12.559 --> 00:33:16.480
Arabia was threatened by the rise of Iran, and not
574
00:33:16.680 --> 00:33:19.920
just the rise of Iran, when the Iranian theocracy said
575
00:33:19.960 --> 00:33:23.480
we're going to export the is Shia revolution and Saudi
576
00:33:23.519 --> 00:33:28.440
Arabia has Shia populations guest where in all their oil
577
00:33:28.559 --> 00:33:31.880
rich provinces, right, so they have a problem that the
578
00:33:31.960 --> 00:33:35.799
Shias would rise up and revolt so and a nuclear
579
00:33:35.880 --> 00:33:37.640
armed Iran would be bad news for them. So they
580
00:33:37.759 --> 00:33:41.759
funded the Pakistani nuclear weapons program, where Zia took a
581
00:33:41.799 --> 00:33:45.240
lot of money from them. They funded the program, and
582
00:33:45.880 --> 00:33:48.119
this is a story which a lot of people have reported.
583
00:33:48.119 --> 00:33:51.039
It's never been confirmed. They have been reports which suggests
584
00:33:51.039 --> 00:33:54.559
that Saudi Arabia has a lot of Chinese ballistic missiles
585
00:33:54.759 --> 00:33:58.519
short range ballistic missiles three four hundred kilometers, about a
586
00:33:58.599 --> 00:34:01.599
dozen of them CSS two. I think dong Feng early
587
00:34:01.680 --> 00:34:09.000
dong Feng missiles with a terrible CEP right circular probable,
588
00:34:09.159 --> 00:34:13.000
which means that damn inaccurate missiles in anywhere we should
589
00:34:13.119 --> 00:34:16.199
you fire them and they'll land a kilometer away. But hey,
590
00:34:17.079 --> 00:34:18.960
those are the kind of missiles you need to launch
591
00:34:19.039 --> 00:34:24.800
nuclear weapons. So the analysis is that Saudi Arabia has
592
00:34:24.840 --> 00:34:28.880
stored these missiles which it brought from China. The warheads
593
00:34:28.960 --> 00:34:31.280
are not kept in Saudi Arabia because there's too much
594
00:34:31.280 --> 00:34:34.079
of American presence in South Arabia. The warheads are stored
595
00:34:34.119 --> 00:34:37.880
in Pakistan in a contingency. If the kingdom were threatened
596
00:34:39.199 --> 00:34:43.480
with nuclear weapons, say Israeli nuclear weapons, for instance, they
597
00:34:43.519 --> 00:34:48.000
would reach for the Pakistani bomb and which would be
598
00:34:48.039 --> 00:34:52.039
mated onto these Chinese ballistic missiles, and that would be
599
00:34:52.039 --> 00:34:56.960
a counter to the Iranian nuclear weapons program or the
600
00:34:57.159 --> 00:35:01.840
Israeli nuclear weapons program. So this is very very it's
601
00:35:01.880 --> 00:35:05.159
a minefield. And now the minefield is act. This was quiet,
602
00:35:05.239 --> 00:35:08.000
you know, during the age of globalization, the time that
603
00:35:08.079 --> 00:35:10.039
you had gone to college and I'd just started working.
604
00:35:10.280 --> 00:35:12.480
All this was under the surface, right, it was all there.
605
00:35:12.800 --> 00:35:15.719
The missiles were there, the bombs were there, the intentions
606
00:35:15.800 --> 00:35:20.199
weren't there. Now when you see people coming with hey greenland,
607
00:35:20.280 --> 00:35:22.800
I want greenland, Hey this thing, I want to grab this,
608
00:35:22.880 --> 00:35:25.199
I want to grab that, I want to teritory. See
609
00:35:25.480 --> 00:35:30.000
that whole global geopolitics has changed in the last five
610
00:35:30.119 --> 00:35:34.199
or six years. It is that end of history. Moment
611
00:35:34.360 --> 00:35:36.880
is over the world is the world is becoming around
612
00:35:37.000 --> 00:35:41.800
once again. And when that happens, then you have what
613
00:35:42.000 --> 00:35:44.760
is the currency that you have. You either have currency
614
00:35:45.400 --> 00:35:48.639
or you have influence, or you have bombs or you
615
00:35:48.719 --> 00:35:51.280
have missiles. What is it that you bring to the table.
616
00:35:51.719 --> 00:35:54.760
So it's at times like this when you know, geopolitics
617
00:35:54.880 --> 00:36:00.800
goes into very very you know, dangerous spaces, which I
618
00:36:00.880 --> 00:36:03.159
call minefield. So that's the kind of time that we're.
619
00:36:03.000 --> 00:36:07.159
In, right, yeah, I mean especially another example of that
620
00:36:07.599 --> 00:36:11.920
is how France has sort of emerged as another pole
621
00:36:12.039 --> 00:36:14.679
in the world because of what US has been doing
622
00:36:14.719 --> 00:36:16.559
in the Middle East, which has led many to question
623
00:36:16.880 --> 00:36:19.800
US's protective arms, so to speak.
624
00:36:19.880 --> 00:36:21.800
That I mean, and the French must be sitting there,
625
00:36:22.159 --> 00:36:25.280
you know, eating their baggettes and sipping their coffees and
626
00:36:25.559 --> 00:36:27.840
you know, smoking their pipes and thinking we are the
627
00:36:28.039 --> 00:36:31.159
cleverest people on the planet. You know, we've built our
628
00:36:31.239 --> 00:36:35.840
own nuclear weapons. Yeah, we ensured that eighty percent of
629
00:36:35.920 --> 00:36:39.880
our energy comes from nuclear power plants. And you know,
630
00:36:40.199 --> 00:36:42.960
at a time in the Germans, Germans literally shot themselves
631
00:36:43.000 --> 00:36:45.400
in the foot. They shut down all their nuclear power plants.
632
00:36:46.360 --> 00:36:48.960
They were living off cheap Prussian gas. They thought that
633
00:36:48.960 --> 00:36:53.280
would continue forever, and now they're in a fix, right.
634
00:36:53.599 --> 00:36:56.400
So the French, you have to respect them for a
635
00:36:56.480 --> 00:36:59.079
lot of decisions that they took, which you know, so
636
00:36:59.199 --> 00:37:02.400
it's like every one's autonomous. Now you have to cater
637
00:37:02.559 --> 00:37:04.639
for your own supply chains, you have to do your
638
00:37:04.679 --> 00:37:08.280
own securities architecture, you have to you know, build your
639
00:37:08.320 --> 00:37:12.480
own bombs. You know, that's the lesson, It seems right.
640
00:37:12.760 --> 00:37:15.760
We'll talk more about osind but after a quick break.
641
00:37:21.760 --> 00:37:30.639
In a world of contested potterers and silent battles, one
642
00:37:30.800 --> 00:37:35.360
voice cut through the noise. Was Israel able to achieve
643
00:37:35.400 --> 00:37:38.679
its aim? When Israel bombed Iran.
644
00:37:39.639 --> 00:37:42.880
Do you think the Chinese army is at war with itself?
645
00:37:44.719 --> 00:37:49.280
Joined veteran war correspondent God of savanth one of India's
646
00:37:49.400 --> 00:37:52.960
most trusted voices in defense journalism.
647
00:37:52.800 --> 00:37:55.199
Navaskar and jahand I'm God of Savath.
648
00:37:56.000 --> 00:38:00.280
Listen to Chuck review with God of Sava on India
649
00:38:00.320 --> 00:38:05.599
Today Podcasts, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube music and your favorite
650
00:38:05.679 --> 00:38:07.000
audio utity platform.
651
00:38:08.440 --> 00:38:12.239
Stay alert. The war for truck starts here.
652
00:38:18.719 --> 00:38:21.239
Welcome back. Something before the break. But there was a
653
00:38:21.280 --> 00:38:22.960
moment where you refer to PM.
654
00:38:23.519 --> 00:38:27.480
Speech a couple of days after the ceasefire between between
655
00:38:27.599 --> 00:38:30.360
India and Pakistan on May tenth. He was if I'm
656
00:38:30.400 --> 00:38:34.119
not wrong, I thinks speaking in Bihar twelfth, it was
657
00:38:34.519 --> 00:38:34.840
made wealth.
658
00:38:34.880 --> 00:38:35.679
Yeah yeah uh.
659
00:38:35.960 --> 00:38:39.480
And he he put out a message one of the
660
00:38:39.719 --> 00:38:43.559
one of the themes of which was that henceforth, India
661
00:38:43.679 --> 00:38:48.719
will not differentiate between state and non state actors, basically
662
00:38:48.840 --> 00:38:53.360
saying any terrorist attack that emanates from Pakistan may see
663
00:38:53.519 --> 00:38:56.719
India directly strike at the Pakistani military from the get go.
664
00:38:57.239 --> 00:38:59.880
Instead of what you saw during operations hin Duru, which
665
00:38:59.880 --> 00:39:02.599
were initially it was a counter terrorism operation of sorts,
666
00:39:02.719 --> 00:39:07.239
right you you attacked nine terrorists SI sites in Pakistan,
667
00:39:07.800 --> 00:39:10.920
and the statement admitted very clear that no military uh
668
00:39:11.800 --> 00:39:15.320
sites were hit and that you do not expect any Uh.
669
00:39:15.800 --> 00:39:18.119
You didn't want to escalate this any further. You were
670
00:39:18.239 --> 00:39:21.360
done with your operation and then you let things be. However,
671
00:39:21.440 --> 00:39:26.599
what happened was Pakistani Pakistan responded militarily. Initially there was
672
00:39:26.679 --> 00:39:28.880
some use of its air defense or other equipment that
673
00:39:28.960 --> 00:39:30.679
you know, led to some losses on the Indian side.
674
00:39:31.039 --> 00:39:31.119
Uh.
675
00:39:31.199 --> 00:39:34.280
Then you had the use of drones. Uh, and then
676
00:39:34.400 --> 00:39:36.880
finally that missile. I'm gonna come back to the missile
677
00:39:36.960 --> 00:39:37.679
bit in just some time.
678
00:39:38.639 --> 00:39:38.760
Uh.
679
00:39:39.400 --> 00:39:41.960
So what I the way I see it, it was
680
00:39:42.119 --> 00:39:44.760
the opening night of Sindur on May seventh, was the
681
00:39:44.840 --> 00:39:48.199
standard Indian response where you attacked the aggressor in terms
682
00:39:48.239 --> 00:39:52.519
of the terrorist Uh. Yeah, yeah, that that targeted, that targeted,
683
00:39:52.760 --> 00:39:58.639
that targeted you. But what happened was that you then
684
00:39:58.760 --> 00:40:01.119
reached a point where we Modi said what he said
685
00:40:01.119 --> 00:40:04.039
that henceforth we will not differentiate between state and nonst attactors.
686
00:40:04.679 --> 00:40:07.800
Do you think this was always the core aim of
687
00:40:08.320 --> 00:40:11.079
this this operation, where India wanted to reach a point
688
00:40:11.119 --> 00:40:13.320
where it was able to say this that going forward
689
00:40:13.400 --> 00:40:15.000
we're not going to be you know, we're not going
690
00:40:15.039 --> 00:40:18.519
to differentiate between state and actors or was it something
691
00:40:18.559 --> 00:40:21.239
that evolved during the course of these of the of
692
00:40:21.320 --> 00:40:23.159
this four day operation. The reason I say that is
693
00:40:23.239 --> 00:40:26.840
because uh, the CDs General Johan had referred to some
694
00:40:27.079 --> 00:40:29.440
tactical errors he said that led to some losses on
695
00:40:29.480 --> 00:40:34.039
the Indian side. Was it was it also an understanding
696
00:40:34.159 --> 00:40:38.039
that if we keep doing this, if we keep differentiating
697
00:40:38.119 --> 00:40:41.239
between state and nons detractors, if our first response will
698
00:40:41.360 --> 00:40:45.400
always be that you target the trust in North Pakistani military,
699
00:40:45.719 --> 00:40:48.719
then you will always run the risk of you know,
700
00:40:49.000 --> 00:40:52.679
suffering losses whenever you have to unfortunately launch operations like
701
00:40:52.760 --> 00:40:53.079
these in the.
702
00:40:53.119 --> 00:40:56.480
Future, right, you know, no, absolutely, a good question, Dave.
703
00:40:56.519 --> 00:40:59.239
And you know the thing is that it's in hindsight.
704
00:41:00.119 --> 00:41:04.039
It's like, you know, it's clear vision, perfect vision. Right,
705
00:41:04.159 --> 00:41:06.960
hindsight is twenty twenty as they say. But if you
706
00:41:07.039 --> 00:41:09.440
look at the way they were looking at it, we
707
00:41:09.559 --> 00:41:12.079
were very cautious. If you look at the way we conducted,
708
00:41:12.159 --> 00:41:16.159
like you said, the first night, it was just pure.
709
00:41:16.400 --> 00:41:20.480
Those nine targets were just terror infrastructure, seven hit by
710
00:41:20.519 --> 00:41:24.239
the army and two by the Air Force. Then what happened.
711
00:41:24.480 --> 00:41:28.159
They possibly the tactical mistake that they made was that
712
00:41:28.280 --> 00:41:30.679
they did not go after the radars on the ground
713
00:41:30.719 --> 00:41:33.000
and the ground based their defenses, which is what the
714
00:41:33.719 --> 00:41:39.239
serious Johann referred to. Now, what they had not factored
715
00:41:39.320 --> 00:41:42.920
in was that in twenty nineteen there was General Bajuar
716
00:41:43.800 --> 00:41:47.119
and if you see in twenty twenty five you had
717
00:41:47.400 --> 00:41:53.599
Assimonis in charge. You saw their personalities coming out in
718
00:41:53.639 --> 00:41:56.280
the way they responded. If you see Bajwa, he's one
719
00:41:56.280 --> 00:41:58.719
of the nicer chaps in the parksan not not to
720
00:41:58.800 --> 00:42:02.760
say that or anything like that, but he was one
721
00:42:02.800 --> 00:42:04.840
of the He kind of understood, okay that you know,
722
00:42:04.960 --> 00:42:08.440
they need to do this score point whatever, let it be.
723
00:42:08.800 --> 00:42:13.079
So there was a limited PF thing where they came
724
00:42:13.239 --> 00:42:15.960
the swift retort or whatever, and we chose not to
725
00:42:16.039 --> 00:42:19.639
respond to that. We de escalated soon after. But here
726
00:42:20.599 --> 00:42:23.920
they had made up their mind that whatever India does,
727
00:42:24.679 --> 00:42:26.679
whether it were and everyone knew that it was going
728
00:42:26.719 --> 00:42:29.440
to be terrorist infrastructure that they would strike. So in
729
00:42:29.559 --> 00:42:32.440
that sense, we were very we were hobbled in our
730
00:42:32.519 --> 00:42:36.840
predictability that the Pakistan military knew money knew that we
731
00:42:36.920 --> 00:42:39.800
would only come after the terrorist infrastructure and not hit
732
00:42:39.840 --> 00:42:44.199
the Pakistan military right now. The mistake that he made
733
00:42:44.400 --> 00:42:48.599
was he thought that policy would hold for the next
734
00:42:48.880 --> 00:42:51.119
twenty four to forty eight hours. But he didn't know
735
00:42:51.199 --> 00:42:54.599
there was an escalation ladder that they said, okay, fine,
736
00:42:54.639 --> 00:42:57.760
we've hit the terror infrastructure. They've brought down a couple
737
00:42:57.800 --> 00:43:01.039
of planes. We don't know how many. Now we go
738
00:43:01.119 --> 00:43:01.880
to the next level.
739
00:43:02.079 --> 00:43:02.239
You know.
740
00:43:02.760 --> 00:43:06.239
So that was something that completely took them by surprise.
741
00:43:06.519 --> 00:43:09.280
And this is something that we've discussed. When you hit
742
00:43:09.800 --> 00:43:14.119
that entire swath of Pakistan from you know, Pok right
743
00:43:14.199 --> 00:43:17.639
down to Synth, you show that you have the ability
744
00:43:17.719 --> 00:43:21.159
to hit eight nine bases simultaneously or was it about
745
00:43:21.320 --> 00:43:25.920
eleven eleven or targets, many of them bases, you know,
746
00:43:26.199 --> 00:43:30.039
simultaneously within less than thirteen minutes, all of these were hit.
747
00:43:30.519 --> 00:43:32.800
So that completely rattled them. This is something that they
748
00:43:32.840 --> 00:43:35.679
hadn't anticipated. They thought these strikes would continue the way
749
00:43:35.800 --> 00:43:39.519
we had been doing it. So the entire response of
750
00:43:39.599 --> 00:43:42.119
THEIRS was driven by that. And you know, so UNI
751
00:43:42.280 --> 00:43:46.039
actually responded by that, stockpiled weapons, the pl seventeen, the
752
00:43:46.159 --> 00:43:49.800
new ones. They were determined on bringing down Indian Air
753
00:43:49.840 --> 00:43:54.000
Force aircraft, targeting iaf aircraft and stuff like that, thinking
754
00:43:54.079 --> 00:43:58.440
that we would terminate conflict at that point, but we
755
00:43:58.639 --> 00:44:02.039
escalated beyond that. So this is something that took them
756
00:44:02.119 --> 00:44:06.079
by surprise. They did not anticipate that thing, and which
757
00:44:06.159 --> 00:44:10.239
is why when you when you run out of answers
758
00:44:10.320 --> 00:44:13.719
to your questions, then you pick up the telephone, right,
759
00:44:13.800 --> 00:44:15.679
And that's the telephone that they picked up, and they
760
00:44:16.079 --> 00:44:19.599
dialed the White House in the tenth and you know, Trump,
761
00:44:19.880 --> 00:44:23.719
whatever happened, you know, it can be debated before after
762
00:44:23.800 --> 00:44:25.639
who called, whom went on. The fact is on the
763
00:44:25.760 --> 00:44:28.480
tenth they did dial and ask for a ceasefire, say
764
00:44:28.519 --> 00:44:31.119
that enough is enough. And I think because we had
765
00:44:31.159 --> 00:44:35.840
figured that our objectives were not to recapture pok or
766
00:44:35.960 --> 00:44:39.599
to bisec Pakistan into two or something, that the aims
767
00:44:39.639 --> 00:44:41.400
were very clear. I think they went in with a
768
00:44:41.480 --> 00:44:45.079
very clear aim that it was to destroy infrastructure, and
769
00:44:45.239 --> 00:44:49.440
because they responded, we had to respond by striking their infrastructure.
770
00:44:49.440 --> 00:44:52.400
That kind of very Yeah, it looks very old school
771
00:44:52.440 --> 00:44:54.519
in a sense, you know that it's not like, you know,
772
00:44:54.599 --> 00:44:58.320
destroy everything, and you know, do that kill kill the
773
00:44:58.440 --> 00:45:01.400
kind of stuff that the US does, for instance, in Iran,
774
00:45:02.079 --> 00:45:03.840
We don't fight wars that way. I mean, we can
775
00:45:04.159 --> 00:45:09.119
debate this, but this is exactly how we fight wars.
776
00:45:09.320 --> 00:45:11.039
Yeah, right, right.
777
00:45:11.480 --> 00:45:15.239
So I wanted to talk about that missile on May ninth,
778
00:45:15.400 --> 00:45:19.159
May tenth that Pakistan is Pakistan had launched towards India.
779
00:45:19.719 --> 00:45:21.840
The reason I say that I wanted to talk about
780
00:45:21.880 --> 00:45:25.559
it is because I think that was the trigger for
781
00:45:25.920 --> 00:45:28.559
the Air force then to you know, target Pakistani on
782
00:45:28.639 --> 00:45:31.559
air bases and military sites across the length and breadth
783
00:45:31.559 --> 00:45:34.159
of the country. The missile and talking about talking about
784
00:45:34.440 --> 00:45:37.239
is what has been reported in the media as the
785
00:45:37.280 --> 00:45:44.760
Fatah ballistic missile. India has not ever officially said or
786
00:45:44.800 --> 00:45:47.719
accused Pakistan launching a ballistic missile. It has said it
787
00:45:47.880 --> 00:45:50.039
was a fast moving missile because there are you know,
788
00:45:50.280 --> 00:45:52.880
some deep, slow moving missiles as well. Yes, coast in
789
00:45:52.960 --> 00:45:58.079
front of fair eyes apparently, but joke's apart. India called
790
00:45:58.119 --> 00:46:01.360
it a fast moving missile. What we knew from media
791
00:46:01.400 --> 00:46:04.320
reporting it was a ballistic missile. It was flying in
792
00:46:04.440 --> 00:46:07.639
the direction of Delhi, uh, and it was taken down
793
00:46:07.800 --> 00:46:09.880
by an air defense system I think it was a
794
00:46:10.280 --> 00:46:14.159
eight but effect system somewhere in yeah, somewhere in yeah,
795
00:46:14.639 --> 00:46:17.840
uh So a couple of tangents. Yeah, one is on
796
00:46:18.039 --> 00:46:21.320
the first, let's talk about what must have happened at
797
00:46:21.400 --> 00:46:23.320
the control room the i c c S which we
798
00:46:23.400 --> 00:46:26.519
talked about in the previous episode, the integrated Air Command
799
00:46:26.599 --> 00:46:30.719
and Control System system. What must have happened in that
800
00:46:31.599 --> 00:46:35.000
in that room when that missile launch must first have
801
00:46:35.079 --> 00:46:37.400
been detected. How do you think or maybe you know
802
00:46:37.440 --> 00:46:41.679
if you spoken to people over there, how pressure rised?
803
00:46:41.760 --> 00:46:43.840
How what was the pressure like for the for the
804
00:46:43.880 --> 00:46:46.440
officers there? And uh and this will sort of, you know,
805
00:46:46.639 --> 00:46:49.880
give give our listeners and viewers and a glimpse of
806
00:46:50.000 --> 00:46:52.559
how it is how an air defense system operates, like
807
00:46:53.920 --> 00:46:56.960
how would the the order to take this missile.
808
00:46:56.760 --> 00:46:58.760
Down have been taken? So one tell us about that.
809
00:46:59.480 --> 00:46:59.599
Uh.
810
00:47:00.360 --> 00:47:03.280
Second, explain to me this is something I have never
811
00:47:03.360 --> 00:47:06.320
been able to figure out. Why has India never officially
812
00:47:06.480 --> 00:47:08.840
formally accused Pakistan of doing this?
813
00:47:09.239 --> 00:47:11.440
Right? A good question, Dave. And you know, the thing
814
00:47:11.519 --> 00:47:16.280
is that we've never formally acknowledged this because it would
815
00:47:16.400 --> 00:47:21.079
imply that it would formalize the fact what we all
816
00:47:21.239 --> 00:47:25.000
know unofficially that this is the possibly the first time
817
00:47:25.079 --> 00:47:28.360
in the world where one nuclear weapon country has fired
818
00:47:28.719 --> 00:47:32.800
a ballistic missile at another nuclear armed country. And as
819
00:47:32.880 --> 00:47:35.760
we've discussed in the previous episode, I mean, nuclear armed
820
00:47:35.760 --> 00:47:41.199
countries don't launch missiles at each other because precisely because
821
00:47:41.239 --> 00:47:45.280
the chances of miscalculation are so enormous, very high. I mean,
822
00:47:45.400 --> 00:47:48.039
just imagine if our forces had been in hair trigger alert,
823
00:47:48.159 --> 00:47:50.960
nuclear weapons were at hair trigger alert, and you saw
824
00:47:51.079 --> 00:47:54.199
missile launch happen, and you would think, you know, in
825
00:47:54.280 --> 00:47:57.159
that pressure cooker situation, they would say, my god, they've
826
00:47:57.199 --> 00:48:00.280
gone for it. They're launching weapons at US nuclear And
827
00:48:00.400 --> 00:48:02.800
there was this that elephant was there in the room.
828
00:48:03.239 --> 00:48:05.719
I remember we I mean I wasn't there on the
829
00:48:06.079 --> 00:48:08.400
on the field, but we were there in the the
830
00:48:08.480 --> 00:48:11.400
India Today studios, and this was one big thing that
831
00:48:11.519 --> 00:48:13.559
was always on our mind that at what point will
832
00:48:13.960 --> 00:48:18.000
Pakistan start rattling the nuclear saber. I think with this
833
00:48:18.239 --> 00:48:21.199
they rattled it to say that, look, don't try this,
834
00:48:21.559 --> 00:48:24.639
We've got this. We've sent one. There could be more
835
00:48:25.440 --> 00:48:29.599
and what might have happened on that night when that
836
00:48:30.320 --> 00:48:33.960
ballistic missile was launched towards Delhi. If you look at it,
837
00:48:34.039 --> 00:48:36.880
it was launched a straight trajictory towards Delhi and sercize
838
00:48:36.920 --> 00:48:39.639
in the way the I c c S would have
839
00:48:39.679 --> 00:48:43.840
picked it up almost immediately when it was launched, and
840
00:48:44.000 --> 00:48:47.039
within seconds they would have that's how the system is.
841
00:48:47.079 --> 00:48:51.360
It's entirely automated, and they would have immediately figured out
842
00:48:51.400 --> 00:48:54.559
the trajectory of the weapon, which we have a ballistic
843
00:48:54.599 --> 00:48:59.480
missile defense capability as well. Both are linked and the
844
00:48:59.559 --> 00:49:04.119
minute the launch was seen, that tragictory would have been
845
00:49:04.119 --> 00:49:07.679
analyzed where it was headed and they would have immediately
846
00:49:07.800 --> 00:49:10.360
said that this Serici is the closest base to it.
847
00:49:10.559 --> 00:49:13.679
It has barricades, so intercept they would have given the
848
00:49:13.719 --> 00:49:17.360
command there Sirizza would have been activated and they launched themselves.
849
00:49:17.360 --> 00:49:20.280
I think they launched one exactly one. They knocked it
850
00:49:20.360 --> 00:49:23.400
down and they brought it out. A very eerie kind
851
00:49:23.440 --> 00:49:25.800
of video if you saw some It was picked up
852
00:49:25.840 --> 00:49:29.239
by a villager and shot it on his phone. There's
853
00:49:29.280 --> 00:49:31.239
a cry of peacocks if you remember that. There's a
854
00:49:32.360 --> 00:49:35.000
pretty creepy video where you can see that big flash
855
00:49:35.039 --> 00:49:37.280
in the thing. So this was our thing. This is
856
00:49:37.320 --> 00:49:42.079
something that you see very routinely in Israel, and not
857
00:49:42.239 --> 00:49:45.280
in Iran because Iran doesn't intercept them misselves, but in Israel.
858
00:49:45.320 --> 00:49:48.840
They do it quite routinely. But that was the kind
859
00:49:48.880 --> 00:49:53.400
of messaging that Pakistan was trying to do there. And
860
00:49:54.119 --> 00:49:57.519
I believe this is what we knocked back. They knocked
861
00:49:57.559 --> 00:50:01.000
and we knocked back. They sent one missile, we sent
862
00:50:01.079 --> 00:50:07.119
two knocks at the missile storage site at Kirana Hills.
863
00:50:07.400 --> 00:50:09.800
That Admiral ak Party still says that we had nothing
864
00:50:09.800 --> 00:50:11.320
to do with it nuclear weapons.
865
00:50:12.400 --> 00:50:14.079
He does not know. So these are many of those
866
00:50:14.119 --> 00:50:17.199
things that will we probably wait for come.
867
00:50:17.039 --> 00:50:19.039
On on the APR. Like you know that a nuclears,
868
00:50:19.079 --> 00:50:22.400
but the Air Force doesn't, don't like doesn't so they
869
00:50:22.440 --> 00:50:22.920
don't know that.
870
00:50:23.400 --> 00:50:25.639
So the person who knows all of this and will
871
00:50:25.679 --> 00:50:28.000
never tell that story is proba to wait for him
872
00:50:28.000 --> 00:50:29.199
to tell his side of the story.
873
00:50:29.719 --> 00:50:33.039
Yeah right, but you know, still on the top pick
874
00:50:33.079 --> 00:50:38.039
of that fast moving missile, Wasn't that the stupidest thing
875
00:50:38.079 --> 00:50:40.719
to do, because you know, forget that there was no
876
00:50:40.880 --> 00:50:44.280
nuclear war, had on the fact you fired a missile
877
00:50:44.519 --> 00:50:48.119
at the capital of towards the capital of the country
878
00:50:49.000 --> 00:50:51.079
with with whom you were in a military conflict with
879
00:50:51.199 --> 00:50:55.039
right now, if that missile had landed anywhere close to Delhi,
880
00:50:55.280 --> 00:50:57.159
had caused any sort of damage.
881
00:50:57.639 --> 00:50:59.840
Wouldn't this have escripted till.
882
00:51:00.360 --> 00:51:02.199
Of course, I think that was the aim that they
883
00:51:02.239 --> 00:51:05.760
wanted to launch a missile drop it some vicinity of Delhi,
884
00:51:05.880 --> 00:51:09.760
create panic, you know, civilian pressure, you know, all of
885
00:51:09.840 --> 00:51:12.760
those kinds of things. Maybe that was the intention, Who knows,
886
00:51:13.199 --> 00:51:15.000
but the fact is that I think what happened is
887
00:51:15.039 --> 00:51:18.199
that Pakistan realized that it didn't have a conventional rocket
888
00:51:18.280 --> 00:51:21.239
force to strike. It had a few of these fatas,
889
00:51:23.159 --> 00:51:28.719
and because all the missiles ballistic missiles are nuclear tipped,
890
00:51:29.320 --> 00:51:33.280
they don't have a conventional missile force, Whereas in our
891
00:51:33.400 --> 00:51:35.280
case as well, it's the same. We have a couple
892
00:51:35.320 --> 00:51:38.920
of tactical ballistic missiles, but primarily our ballistic missiles are
893
00:51:39.000 --> 00:51:44.440
for nuclear weapons. Use our Bromos. And this is again
894
00:51:44.599 --> 00:51:47.199
what Dr Pilay told me, is that one of the
895
00:51:47.239 --> 00:51:49.559
greatest things that he ever did was to ensure that
896
00:51:49.679 --> 00:51:53.880
Bramos was never used as a nuclear weapons carrier, because
897
00:51:53.880 --> 00:51:56.280
if that had happened, you would not have been able
898
00:51:56.320 --> 00:51:58.519
to use the Bramos at all for any of the services.
899
00:51:59.000 --> 00:52:01.119
So the services then got another weapon which is a
900
00:52:01.159 --> 00:52:04.920
little better than that, which is called the not the
901
00:52:05.360 --> 00:52:10.280
the Sharia, the Sharia is a hypersonic ballistic missile which
902
00:52:10.320 --> 00:52:15.679
is exclusively for nuclear weapons use. So now what has
903
00:52:15.719 --> 00:52:18.480
happened is Pakistan has gone in the other direction and said,
904
00:52:18.480 --> 00:52:21.280
oh we got hit. We couldn't strike back. They hit
905
00:52:21.360 --> 00:52:23.239
us with Bramos. Now we will have to do something,
906
00:52:23.320 --> 00:52:25.880
create our own rocket force. So now if you've seen
907
00:52:26.039 --> 00:52:29.639
in the last couple of days they've tested, so they
908
00:52:29.719 --> 00:52:33.599
will now you know, induct more numbers of those to
909
00:52:34.119 --> 00:52:35.880
you know, try and build it up. So if there
910
00:52:35.960 --> 00:52:39.360
is another you know, escalation or if there's a short
911
00:52:39.480 --> 00:52:42.920
conflict like this, they will use these missiles in larger
912
00:52:43.000 --> 00:52:45.639
numbers and maybe not the kind of drones that they
913
00:52:45.719 --> 00:52:48.239
did so in the opening hours, if we if we
914
00:52:48.320 --> 00:52:50.960
struck their infrastructure for instance, they will want it to
915
00:52:51.000 --> 00:52:53.360
strike at our air fields and stuff. So they realized
916
00:52:53.400 --> 00:52:56.360
that that there was a big hole in their capabilities,
917
00:52:56.599 --> 00:53:00.599
and they didn't anticipate. When you don't anticipate, you don't
918
00:53:01.360 --> 00:53:03.360
you know, acquire the kind of system that you might
919
00:53:03.440 --> 00:53:05.920
want to, you know, and which is what they've been doing.
920
00:53:05.960 --> 00:53:09.599
I mean, it's as foolish as it sounds that it
921
00:53:09.719 --> 00:53:12.280
has not led to a big change in their behavior.
922
00:53:12.880 --> 00:53:15.400
They believe that they need to keep fighting, of course,
923
00:53:15.880 --> 00:53:18.480
and they lost that round because they didn't have these
924
00:53:19.000 --> 00:53:21.559
you know, tools, and they need to get better weapons
925
00:53:21.679 --> 00:53:23.880
and better hardware and you know all that. So it's
926
00:53:23.960 --> 00:53:28.039
this unending you know, death spiral literally that you keep
927
00:53:28.320 --> 00:53:30.280
going on and on and on trying to get better
928
00:53:30.360 --> 00:53:33.360
and better weapons rather than do the simple thing, which
929
00:53:33.440 --> 00:53:37.119
is just shut down the terror infrastructure. Yeah, just leave,
930
00:53:37.320 --> 00:53:40.239
live in peace. You do your thing, We'll do our thing.
931
00:53:40.320 --> 00:53:42.559
But a lot of money.
932
00:53:44.800 --> 00:53:47.920
Yeah, And they use it as see. I mean they
933
00:53:48.039 --> 00:53:50.920
use it as an instrument of state policy, not just
934
00:53:51.079 --> 00:53:53.559
with India, but they used it with Afghanistans, They're using
935
00:53:53.599 --> 00:53:57.360
it with Alan as well with they have borders with
936
00:53:57.639 --> 00:54:00.679
four countries, they're using it with in three of them,
937
00:54:01.320 --> 00:54:04.079
and who knows with China evil right if the price
938
00:54:04.199 --> 00:54:06.480
is right, right, uh.
939
00:54:06.599 --> 00:54:10.000
SPA point about something that's become a very topic of
940
00:54:10.039 --> 00:54:13.360
discussion because they run war, but something we saw glimpses
941
00:54:13.400 --> 00:54:17.400
of during Operation Sindur as well, the concept of having
942
00:54:17.480 --> 00:54:21.519
to worry about what you call a magazine depth. So
943
00:54:21.679 --> 00:54:27.480
even during Odur you had Pakistan launching loitering munitions drones,
944
00:54:27.480 --> 00:54:30.880
which are comparatively cheaper then let's say a missile or
945
00:54:30.960 --> 00:54:31.440
sending an.
946
00:54:31.360 --> 00:54:33.519
Aircraft we're loaded with bombs.
947
00:54:34.000 --> 00:54:37.159
Uh Iran war has made us see what happens when
948
00:54:37.320 --> 00:54:39.679
what what you can do in terms of, you know,
949
00:54:39.760 --> 00:54:42.199
employing cheap drones that have to be taken down by
950
00:54:42.239 --> 00:54:48.039
expensive interceptors. Uh was India or did the planners military
951
00:54:48.079 --> 00:54:52.199
plans at any point were we worried about magazine debt
952
00:54:52.360 --> 00:54:54.320
during options in do Or is this something that we
953
00:54:54.440 --> 00:54:57.119
are now going to start thinking about because we see
954
00:54:57.119 --> 00:54:57.760
what's happening in there?
955
00:54:58.199 --> 00:54:58.760
A good question.
956
00:54:59.119 --> 00:54:59.199
Now.
957
00:54:59.320 --> 00:55:01.719
The thing is that you know a lot of these
958
00:55:02.679 --> 00:55:05.920
war fighting paradigms, you think that they don't apply to you,
959
00:55:06.480 --> 00:55:09.159
or this is happening far away, it's you know, it's
960
00:55:09.199 --> 00:55:10.800
not never going to happen to us, and then lo
961
00:55:10.920 --> 00:55:13.360
and behold it it hits you and then you realize, oh,
962
00:55:13.480 --> 00:55:18.400
you know, we're running short of ammunition, ammunition, intercept us drones.
963
00:55:18.639 --> 00:55:21.119
You know you probably need to restock missiles.
964
00:55:21.280 --> 00:55:22.639
So it takes money, a lot of money.
965
00:55:22.760 --> 00:55:25.679
Yeah. So if you see now a lot of statements
966
00:55:25.800 --> 00:55:27.519
in the last one year that have been coming out
967
00:55:28.920 --> 00:55:31.960
all my friends in the forces, the DRDO, for instance,
968
00:55:32.000 --> 00:55:36.599
they're all looking at building drones in the tens of thousands.
969
00:55:37.079 --> 00:55:41.280
Now I still say that we don't have a Shah
970
00:55:41.480 --> 00:55:45.119
one three six kind of assembly line producing you know,
971
00:55:45.719 --> 00:55:49.199
tens of thousands of these drones. That's a big, you
972
00:55:49.280 --> 00:55:52.639
know hole in our capabilities. I see magazine depthing. You're
973
00:55:52.679 --> 00:55:55.920
not creating assembly lines, You're giving penny package to a
974
00:55:55.960 --> 00:55:58.679
lot of people. Right. This is like again going back
975
00:55:58.719 --> 00:56:02.800
to the artillery thing, is that when you know artillery
976
00:56:02.960 --> 00:56:06.079
was invented, the present modern d artillery came into being
977
00:56:06.119 --> 00:56:08.719
in the late nineteenth century. It's like saying that, you know,
978
00:56:09.239 --> 00:56:16.239
France acquired after the you know, German France War, France
979
00:56:16.239 --> 00:56:20.159
acquired fifty artillery shells or one hundred artillery shells, So
980
00:56:20.280 --> 00:56:23.679
you know, artillery shells stopwhile in the tens hundreds of thousands, Ye,
981
00:56:24.079 --> 00:56:26.840
drones are the artillery rounds of the twenty first century.
982
00:56:26.880 --> 00:56:30.519
Whether you like it or no. Right, if you don't
983
00:56:30.639 --> 00:56:32.880
like it, the guy next door likes it, he loves it,
984
00:56:32.960 --> 00:56:35.320
and he's going to use it against you. So that
985
00:56:35.480 --> 00:56:37.960
is the one big lesson that we've seen. And the
986
00:56:38.039 --> 00:56:42.760
DRDO chief statement recently about creating a completely made in
987
00:56:42.840 --> 00:56:46.760
India BrahMos missile which did not depend on Russian components
988
00:56:46.800 --> 00:56:48.960
because they have their own supply chain issues out there,
989
00:56:49.039 --> 00:56:52.440
and they're fighting a war for four years plus. So
990
00:56:52.519 --> 00:56:57.719
they're looking at creating quick, easy to build, entirely indigenous
991
00:56:57.880 --> 00:57:01.880
missiles which we can build in very large numbers. And
992
00:57:02.519 --> 00:57:04.679
I'm sure these are the lessons that Pakistan has taken
993
00:57:04.760 --> 00:57:09.280
as well. They have been looking we've been looking closely
994
00:57:09.320 --> 00:57:12.719
at the Iran war, and Pakistan has been possibly looking
995
00:57:13.360 --> 00:57:17.000
at the Iran War with its face pressed to the window,
996
00:57:17.159 --> 00:57:20.559
you know. And we were talking in the newsroom at
997
00:57:20.599 --> 00:57:23.519
what's money doing in Iran for three days, you know,
998
00:57:24.639 --> 00:57:26.800
besides brokering piece. So I said, yeah, the first day,
999
00:57:26.800 --> 00:57:29.639
he must have been talking about peace. The next two
1000
00:57:29.719 --> 00:57:32.559
days this is that, please give me some missiles and drones.
1001
00:57:32.960 --> 00:57:37.280
I need it. So they're stockpiling missiles drones. I'm sure
1002
00:57:37.280 --> 00:57:41.559
they've got They've learned from Iranian war fighting strategies, which
1003
00:57:41.639 --> 00:57:44.199
is to you know, tunnel, go under the ground, because
1004
00:57:44.360 --> 00:57:48.360
they aren't going to be caught open again. They possibly
1005
00:57:48.440 --> 00:57:50.480
don't want to be hammered the way they were in
1006
00:57:50.599 --> 00:57:53.360
twenty twenty five. They will look at strategies to survive.
1007
00:57:53.480 --> 00:57:58.599
Go under the ground, get you know, ballistic missiles, get drones,
1008
00:57:58.679 --> 00:58:01.280
shy type of drones. There was a report I was reading,
1009
00:58:02.440 --> 00:58:04.159
I think it came out of the arms exhibition where
1010
00:58:04.199 --> 00:58:08.519
they said that the Turkish defense company Bakar, I think,
1011
00:58:09.159 --> 00:58:13.679
is selling ten thousand Kamikazi drones to an unnamed foreign country. Now,
1012
00:58:13.760 --> 00:58:17.679
which could that unnamed foreign country be? Yes, yes, yes,
1013
00:58:18.400 --> 00:58:22.159
So this is Pakistan learning all the long wrong lessons
1014
00:58:22.199 --> 00:58:25.360
from Obsindur, where it believes that, hey, you know, what
1015
00:58:25.519 --> 00:58:27.480
happened was that we didn't have the right weapons. You know,
1016
00:58:28.639 --> 00:58:30.760
we need to stalk byle more of those interceptors and
1017
00:58:31.159 --> 00:58:35.199
ballistic missiles and for the next round. So that's what
1018
00:58:35.400 --> 00:58:38.760
the thing is. But magazine depth again, lessons taken both
1019
00:58:38.880 --> 00:58:43.559
by India, lessons absorbed by Pakistan and in fact by
1020
00:58:43.559 --> 00:58:45.960
the whole world. Yeah, if you look at the three conflicts,
1021
00:58:46.039 --> 00:58:50.599
you know, it's Iran. Just after Obzindur. You had the
1022
00:58:50.679 --> 00:58:55.400
twelve day Iran Israel War, the twelve Way conflict. Then
1023
00:58:55.440 --> 00:58:58.800
you have this forty day Iran US War where the
1024
00:58:58.920 --> 00:59:03.239
US rapidly ran of interceptors, the Gulf States ran out
1025
00:59:03.280 --> 00:59:07.000
of interceptors, u A, Saudi Arabia and all that everybody
1026
00:59:07.159 --> 00:59:12.000
is going to start making stockpiling weapons and going in
1027
00:59:12.079 --> 00:59:15.039
for assembly lines, going to your car manufacturers and asking
1028
00:59:15.119 --> 00:59:19.000
them to you know, start mass producing missiles and drones
1029
00:59:19.039 --> 00:59:23.119
and interceptors. And it is sad. I'm not a very
1030
00:59:23.159 --> 00:59:25.239
big fan of, you know, the militarization of the world.
1031
00:59:25.280 --> 00:59:28.079
And I study conflict. I study the way the world is.
1032
00:59:28.599 --> 00:59:31.000
I don't advocate that this is the way the world
1033
00:59:31.079 --> 00:59:33.440
needs to be. Yeah, there is, like I keep saying,
1034
00:59:33.519 --> 00:59:36.760
it's there's a Ramayan paradigm and there's a mahbaa paradigm.
1035
00:59:37.199 --> 00:59:40.599
Ramayan is the is the ideal world. You know, it's
1036
00:59:40.639 --> 00:59:46.039
a good bad good son, you know, bad adversary, good evil,
1037
00:59:46.119 --> 00:59:48.719
black white in the Mahabara. It is the way the
1038
00:59:48.760 --> 00:59:52.239
world is, which is shades of gray. Everybody is in
1039
00:59:52.599 --> 00:59:55.000
shades of gray. And that's the way the world is today.
1040
00:59:55.639 --> 00:59:59.480
And when you know you have insecurities, I mean when
1041
00:59:59.480 --> 01:00:03.000
you have NATO members, the founding member of NATO turning
1042
01:00:03.039 --> 01:00:05.639
around and saying I want your territory. You know, I
1043
01:00:05.800 --> 01:00:09.199
want to acquire grab your territory because I can you know,
1044
01:00:09.440 --> 01:00:14.079
use it. What is to you know, what do countries
1045
01:00:14.119 --> 01:00:18.159
defend themselves? So that's why everyone's now reaching for nuclear weapons.
1046
01:00:18.199 --> 01:00:22.199
Were living through a very you know, troubled phase in
1047
01:00:22.519 --> 01:00:25.119
global thing till the time we reach a new level
1048
01:00:25.159 --> 01:00:28.840
of stability, we are in a very very you know,
1049
01:00:29.320 --> 01:00:32.280
rough patch. This is the kind of thing that happens
1050
01:00:32.360 --> 01:00:35.880
usually a cycle that comes after about eighty years, one
1051
01:00:35.960 --> 01:00:38.440
hundred years or so. We saw that after the First
1052
01:00:38.480 --> 01:00:41.079
World War, then we saw it after the end of
1053
01:00:41.119 --> 01:00:44.480
the Second World War, then after the Cold War, and
1054
01:00:44.559 --> 01:00:47.199
now this is the post post Cold War world. So
1055
01:00:47.519 --> 01:00:50.440
where you know, as I was just listening to the
1056
01:00:50.519 --> 01:00:53.400
Chief of Defense Staff where he was talking about theaterization,
1057
01:00:53.480 --> 01:00:56.400
he says that look now at a time when countries
1058
01:00:56.480 --> 01:01:01.320
are resorting to warfare for a achieving their political aims,
1059
01:01:01.840 --> 01:01:03.800
then you need these structures in place.
1060
01:01:05.039 --> 01:01:08.480
You speaking of world wars and rearming. Saw this interesting
1061
01:01:08.559 --> 01:01:09.400
post on social media.
1062
01:01:09.400 --> 01:01:12.639
I'm not sure how accurate it is, but apparently Germany,
1063
01:01:13.119 --> 01:01:16.159
the country that's responsible for both the world wars, has
1064
01:01:16.239 --> 01:01:20.000
set a target to become Europe's strongest military by the
1065
01:01:20.159 --> 01:01:23.760
year when there will be the hundredth and year anniversary
1066
01:01:24.000 --> 01:01:27.039
of the World War to start. So very interesting year
1067
01:01:27.280 --> 01:01:28.039
is what they've chosen.
1068
01:01:28.079 --> 01:01:29.840
They could have just liked five.
1069
01:01:30.559 --> 01:01:36.079
You know those things they've German rearmament as great as
1070
01:01:36.119 --> 01:01:39.800
it sounds, I mean, European countries will have a very
1071
01:01:39.840 --> 01:01:44.519
different take on German. German rearmament we saw about we
1072
01:01:44.639 --> 01:01:47.880
saw three phases of two phases of German rearmament in
1073
01:01:47.960 --> 01:01:50.920
the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth and you
1074
01:01:51.000 --> 01:01:55.400
know where we landed up after that, right right late
1075
01:01:55.480 --> 01:01:58.079
on the one final quick point this is sort of
1076
01:01:58.159 --> 01:02:01.440
a very lighter, lighter point is I've always wondered, so
1077
01:02:01.559 --> 01:02:05.159
you know, the the ceasefire, or rather what India had
1078
01:02:05.280 --> 01:02:08.920
termed it back then, the pause and operations was achieved
1079
01:02:09.000 --> 01:02:12.239
between India and Pakistan after Pakistan called India, who was
1080
01:02:12.280 --> 01:02:14.039
that person that was the Pakistan and d GM or
1081
01:02:14.840 --> 01:02:20.480
military operations calling his counterpart the Indian Armies DGMO left
1082
01:02:20.519 --> 01:02:23.039
ten General Raji Kai If I'm not one of the
1083
01:02:23.119 --> 01:02:26.639
three officers who turned out the faces of because of
1084
01:02:26.639 --> 01:02:27.800
their daily press conferences.
1085
01:02:28.360 --> 01:02:30.639
Uh, he called him up and you know, asked for
1086
01:02:30.920 --> 01:02:35.280
or asked for a sea fire. I've always wondered in
1087
01:02:35.480 --> 01:02:39.480
live conflict situations like these, when you have h you know,
1088
01:02:39.559 --> 01:02:42.880
you're you're literally fighting each other and you have to
1089
01:02:42.960 --> 01:02:45.320
make calls like these and these are not diplomats, right,
1090
01:02:45.360 --> 01:02:48.559
these are military men. They they are in a different way.
1091
01:02:49.119 --> 01:02:52.840
Uh, how is the how are the talks like, is
1092
01:02:52.920 --> 01:02:53.840
it very.
1093
01:02:53.840 --> 01:02:56.960
Very professional or do things often at times end up
1094
01:02:56.960 --> 01:02:57.599
getting heated.
1095
01:02:58.000 --> 01:03:01.079
No, I think very professionalizing. There's no if you're talking
1096
01:03:01.079 --> 01:03:06.400
to the DJM O line, it's very kurt. It's my
1097
01:03:06.480 --> 01:03:08.719
friends will have handled those telephones. This is very curt.
1098
01:03:08.760 --> 01:03:12.719
It's very to the point, and there is no you know, acrimony.
1099
01:03:12.760 --> 01:03:15.920
Whatever the situation be, on both sides, it's usually curt
1100
01:03:16.039 --> 01:03:19.360
to the point, very military like. Uh, you know, that's
1101
01:03:19.360 --> 01:03:21.800
how it is. So for them, it's another day at work.
1102
01:03:22.559 --> 01:03:25.679
It's sad, but yeah, it is. It is that that's
1103
01:03:25.679 --> 01:03:28.480
what that's what they train for, condition you know, their
1104
01:03:28.639 --> 01:03:31.000
entire life, and that's why they enter, you know, at
1105
01:03:31.039 --> 01:03:33.280
a time in there so young. They get into the
1106
01:03:33.320 --> 01:03:35.760
things they shape for precisely an environment like this.
1107
01:03:35.880 --> 01:03:37.800
We're able to stay cool actually as you stay.
1108
01:03:37.679 --> 01:03:40.079
Cool under the you know, in the line of fire.
1109
01:03:40.199 --> 01:03:44.559
And that's that's what they do. And uh, that's the
1110
01:03:44.639 --> 01:03:46.400
way we are right.
1111
01:03:46.920 --> 01:03:49.800
One last points on deep is the country that we've
1112
01:03:49.880 --> 01:03:52.280
not talked about, but the country that we were talking
1113
01:03:52.320 --> 01:03:56.920
about the most before the attack and the resultant operations
1114
01:03:56.960 --> 01:03:57.960
into China.
1115
01:03:58.320 --> 01:04:00.880
Do you think any of what India did.
1116
01:04:00.840 --> 01:04:03.440
Over the course of those four days is a messaging
1117
01:04:03.719 --> 01:04:06.519
or is something that even China has taken a look at,
1118
01:04:06.599 --> 01:04:09.599
taken a note off, And how do you think China
1119
01:04:09.639 --> 01:04:11.920
would be looking at that four day.
1120
01:04:11.920 --> 01:04:14.039
On the Actually good question. They've you know, we never
1121
01:04:14.159 --> 01:04:16.760
spoke about China. But here's the thing. I think what
1122
01:04:17.119 --> 01:04:20.599
China look, they study conflicts very closely. They look at
1123
01:04:20.760 --> 01:04:24.760
every single conflict, they learn lessons from it. I'm sure
1124
01:04:24.800 --> 01:04:29.320
they've seen the Iran US conflict and they're looking at
1125
01:04:29.400 --> 01:04:31.760
how they could use it in the Taiwan Straits thing,
1126
01:04:31.800 --> 01:04:34.239
for instance, if they were to launch an invasion of
1127
01:04:34.280 --> 01:04:42.039
Taiwan or whatever. Hopefully that never happens because all of
1128
01:04:42.119 --> 01:04:47.440
their you know, military lessons are theoretical if you look
1129
01:04:47.440 --> 01:04:49.360
at it from seventy nine homers, they've not had any
1130
01:04:49.760 --> 01:04:52.199
real war fighting experience. But if you're looking at them,
1131
01:04:52.360 --> 01:04:56.440
look taking the lessons from ops, indur lessons would be
1132
01:04:56.840 --> 01:05:00.360
this that there was this thing that the Indian military
1133
01:05:00.400 --> 01:05:03.599
prepared for, which was the Two Front War. We've been
1134
01:05:04.239 --> 01:05:06.559
talking about it from the nineteen sixties, from the time
1135
01:05:06.679 --> 01:05:11.280
that chucks Gun Valley was changed hands, you know, sixty
1136
01:05:11.360 --> 01:05:14.960
three and seventy one. Also there was that threat after
1137
01:05:15.000 --> 01:05:17.599
the sixty two war between India and China. You're looking
1138
01:05:17.599 --> 01:05:23.280
at two unsettled boundaries, and China has you know, accentuated
1139
01:05:23.400 --> 01:05:27.639
this two front dilemma for US by arming Pakistan. That's
1140
01:05:27.639 --> 01:05:30.840
what they do. They're masters of grand strategy in the
1141
01:05:30.920 --> 01:05:33.920
sense and they have North Korea for handling South Korea
1142
01:05:33.960 --> 01:05:37.000
and Japan and the United States, and they have Pakistan
1143
01:05:37.519 --> 01:05:42.679
to kind of fire wall India into South Asia. Now
1144
01:05:42.840 --> 01:05:46.000
what happens is that in a two front war that
1145
01:05:46.119 --> 01:05:49.960
the Indian military would be faced with, this dynamic response
1146
01:05:50.000 --> 01:05:53.719
strategy allows them to rapidly take care of one front,
1147
01:05:54.519 --> 01:05:57.719
which is the Pakistan Front, and then focus a lot
1148
01:05:57.840 --> 01:06:02.239
of their war fighting potential onto the China front. So
1149
01:06:03.119 --> 01:06:07.199
the Chinese military, especially the Western Theater Command that straddles
1150
01:06:07.639 --> 01:06:11.000
Sinjiang and Tibet, will now look at it as a
1151
01:06:11.320 --> 01:06:15.360
situation where the Indian military is not as threatened by
1152
01:06:15.480 --> 01:06:19.199
their Western flying as they would be in the past,
1153
01:06:19.920 --> 01:06:22.039
where you know, they said, oh, you know, these guys
1154
01:06:22.079 --> 01:06:24.800
are going to be distracted. Their force is going to
1155
01:06:24.800 --> 01:06:26.840
be looking left and right. Army is going to be
1156
01:06:26.880 --> 01:06:30.079
looking left and right. Now with this happening with post
1157
01:06:30.159 --> 01:06:34.519
operations in there, you have demonstrated the ability to at
1158
01:06:34.639 --> 01:06:38.119
least not collapse, but at least paralyze one front very
1159
01:06:38.880 --> 01:06:41.639
quickly in you know, twenty four forty eight hours or
1160
01:06:41.719 --> 01:06:45.559
something like that, and then reorient all your forces towards
1161
01:06:45.599 --> 01:06:48.599
the northern to hold the line. This is how they
1162
01:06:48.599 --> 01:06:52.119
would be seen and it's a very big thing because
1163
01:06:52.320 --> 01:06:54.880
if you have that ability to do that because of technology,
1164
01:06:57.079 --> 01:07:03.239
then you have your your bigger military programs will follow
1165
01:07:03.280 --> 01:07:05.559
down that line. And if you look at what the
1166
01:07:05.639 --> 01:07:08.519
Prime Minister said again on the fifteenth of August last year,
1167
01:07:09.199 --> 01:07:13.119
he didn't speak about getting more submarines or aircraft carriers
1168
01:07:13.199 --> 01:07:18.079
of fighter aircraft or tanks or infantry divisions. He just
1169
01:07:18.119 --> 01:07:22.440
said Sudarshan Chakra mission Sudarshan Chakra. So the political leadership
1170
01:07:22.480 --> 01:07:27.079
has seen this as being one of those game changing
1171
01:07:27.800 --> 01:07:30.719
war fighting technologies. This is not to suggest that any
1172
01:07:30.760 --> 01:07:34.039
of these platforms are redundant, or that you will not
1173
01:07:34.159 --> 01:07:36.119
need submarines, or you won't need fighter jets, or you
1174
01:07:36.199 --> 01:07:38.280
won't need a forty two scored in air force. You
1175
01:07:38.400 --> 01:07:42.639
do need all of these, but the paradigm of war
1176
01:07:42.719 --> 01:07:46.679
fighting today gives you more options to strike and hold,
1177
01:07:46.960 --> 01:07:49.199
you know, fronts like the problems that we are faced
1178
01:07:49.239 --> 01:07:54.199
with with say a drone missile force, rocket force acting
1179
01:07:54.280 --> 01:07:57.840
in conjunction with your traditional structures. So that's the reason
1180
01:07:57.920 --> 01:08:00.639
that they're going after this Suur Shan chuck a big time,
1181
01:08:00.960 --> 01:08:03.960
which we've discussed in the past, so it completely alters
1182
01:08:04.039 --> 01:08:06.119
the you know that That's that's why it's saying that
1183
01:08:06.679 --> 01:08:10.880
Sindura's is a is a watershed in the way India
1184
01:08:10.920 --> 01:08:13.880
has kind of fought its wars. It has it's given
1185
01:08:13.960 --> 01:08:18.520
a concept, it's proved that concept in actual war fighting terms,
1186
01:08:19.119 --> 01:08:22.399
and now you can build on that for imagining bigger,
1187
01:08:23.359 --> 01:08:27.399
you know, war fighting scenarios like again, God for a bit,
1188
01:08:27.560 --> 01:08:29.279
a two front war or something like that. You have
1189
01:08:29.319 --> 01:08:31.800
the ability to handle one front. So your military is
1190
01:08:31.880 --> 01:08:35.520
more confident in its capabilities and it believes that these
1191
01:08:35.600 --> 01:08:39.760
are the h you know, homegrown architecture that you need
1192
01:08:39.840 --> 01:08:41.680
to you know, focus on drown missile and all that
1193
01:08:41.800 --> 01:08:44.479
to basically hold one of these fronts. So I think
1194
01:08:44.560 --> 01:08:47.600
that is why Sindura is so useful and that's why
1195
01:08:47.720 --> 01:08:50.720
you know stuff like the dynamic response strategy. You know
1196
01:08:50.800 --> 01:08:53.680
that that becomes so important.
1197
01:08:54.359 --> 01:08:57.039
Great, excellent answer, actually, and I think that's a very
1198
01:08:57.079 --> 01:08:59.079
good point on which we can end this episode.
1199
01:08:59.159 --> 01:09:02.279
So thanks and the it was great chatting with you.
1200
01:09:02.600 --> 01:09:05.760
As always, Thanks for having me, and thanks is always.
1201
01:09:05.479 --> 01:09:07.520
To our listeners and yours. That's it for the six
1202
01:09:07.560 --> 01:09:09.680
depends does for more tuning in next week. Till then,
1203
01:09:09.760 --> 01:09:11.359
stay safe, not tossing any boundaries.
1204
01:09:11.720 --> 01:09:12.600
A passport.
1205
01:09:18.760 --> 01:09:40.600
Ka kab, the maps, Arch, the radio, Apple Podcast, Spotify
1206
01:09:42.479 --> 01:09:45.560
Audio platform, soun