ABOUT THIS EPISODE
Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner explains why predicting rainfall is only part of the challenge—and how new forecasting tools, hydrology and lessons from historic floods are changing the way we understand risk.
Jeff Lindner joins Hurricane Center Live for a wide-ranging conversation about tropical weather, extreme rainfall and the rapidly changing science of flood forecasting.
Lindner is a meteorologist with the Harris County Flood Control District, where rainfall forecasts have to become something much more operational: How much water will fall? Where will it go? How quickly will rivers, bayous and streets respond—and when does that become dangerous? The Flood Control District continues to identify Lindner as one of its meteorologists and has long used his expertise in flood operations and public warning.
One of the most interesting parts of the discussion looks at the limits of traditional weather modeling and the next generation of higher-resolution and machine-learning guidance. Jeff talks about the challenge of turning increasingly sophisticated rainfall forecasts into useful hydrologic information—especially when small differences in where the heaviest rain falls can produce dramatically different outcomes.
The conversation also reaches beyond hurricanes. Lindner discusses his recent field work examining historic flash floods in Colorado and an intriguing comparison between the catastrophic 1976 flood and a much larger rainfall event decades later. The lesson: rainfall totals alone don't necessarily determine the size of a flood. Duration, terrain, soil conditions, watershed response and changes to the landscape all matter.
It is a reminder that forecasting the storm is only the beginning. Understanding what the water does next may be just as important.
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