Speaker 1: Everyone's talking about AI. It kind of feels a little old at this point. Oh AI is gonna take all of our jobs. AI is gonna put everyone out of work, and blah blah blah blah blah.
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Speaker 2: What's real?
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Speaker 1: What's fake? Hello Future, It's me keV. This is a dispatch from the Digital Frontier. The planet is Earth. The year is twenty twenty six. My name is still Kevin Sarilli. Remember you can listen to all of the latest Tello Future episodes wherever you get your podcast and on the iHeartMedia app. And sign up for my newsletter at MTF dot News or MTF dot tv and check us out for all of your latest go to guide of the future. Mattie Douppler is returning to the program. Mattie, my good friend. Thank you so much for showing out to Meet the Future. She's the CEO and founder of Forward Strategy. She's worked with iconic American brands like Amazon. She's Apolo let's see nerd I say that, And if you ever need to understand what's going on with fiscal policy and the economy, check out her podcast. However you podcast it's called The Trade Off with Maddie Duppler and Maddie, thank you so much for showing up once again to meet the future. What impact is AI really having on the economy and just go riff Okay, I.
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Speaker 3: Mean, listen, anecdote isn't data, but the way the economy is evolving in real time, it's hard for our data to pick it up in real time. Right we can do it kind of retrospectively, but right now, AI and what it's doing to the future of work is working faster than our data can really calibrate. And I say that because we've been in this environment for the last several months that experts are calling low higher low fire. Basically, there's no job turnover, which is showing up as a relatively positive aspect of the economy. There's not big layoffs happening. Even if you hear of a couple layups here and there, on the whole economy looks positive when you just look at the employment landscape.
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Speaker 4: The issue is how people are experiencing.
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Speaker 3: The economy right Inflation, the pressures driven by Iran war. Right now, household budgets really feel like they're under stress, and that's what people pay attention to. Right It's not the macro picture of how many jobs were created in the last month, which, of course it's about like how much money do I have left in my budget after I fill up both cars at the end of the week, And why is that number getting smaller and smaller and smaller. And one of the disconnects in the economy that's happening right now is GDP seems relatively stable and increasing at a moderate pace. The reason that is happening, though, is because of five companies spending on AI. Last month during during tech earning calls, we heard that the big five hyperscalers are going to spend anywhere from seven hundred to seven hundred and fifty billion dollars on AI this year alone.
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Speaker 2: And I want to like, what does that mean?
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Speaker 1: I hear these big numbers, and I read it in CNBC or Fox Business or The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg to some extent, what does it mean when they're throwing these big numbers, like we're.
00:03:18
Speaker 2: Spending all this money on AI?
00:03:19
Speaker 1: Well?
00:03:20
Speaker 2: How okay?
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Speaker 3: So two things that I want your audience to keep in mind for context.
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Speaker 4: One I'm going to.
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Speaker 3: Steal from a CNBC analyst I heard yesterday because it's so genius. The US economy is thirty trillion, which again, like that doesn't make sense, that number is too big, But it's expected to grow at around two percent year every year. Thirty trillion times two percent, that's six hundred billion. That is less than the amount that these five companies are spending in one.
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Speaker 4: Year on AI.
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Speaker 3: So what that means is if any of these companies make changes to their plans for AI capex, that's going to have a material impact on the whole US economy, even and if someone who's living somewhere where they're not building data centers or where they're not buying chips. I mean, it's amazing how acute the inputs are, but how profound the impact may be. Second thing I want to say about this is just that when you're looking at the AI spend, typically, especially in the US economy, you have a boom bus cycle and a big cap X push, a big push by private companies spending lots of money to put shovels on the ground and invest in the US That.
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Speaker 4: Is usually preceding a big.
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Speaker 3: Job boom that usually brings in tons of jobs. You know, at Amazon, when we would build a fulfillment center that would guarantee a thousand new jobs in the first year, would guarantee an increase in economic income in the region.
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Speaker 4: You don't have that with data centers.
00:04:49
Speaker 3: Data centers like Goldman Sack's estimates that you produce like maybe one hundred hundred and fifty jobs with the data center, right. And so the question is what comes after all of this spending. Even if all these investments are made and it fuels us economic growth, does that show up in people's paychecks? Does that show up in better earnings and more jobs? I'm not sure it does.
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Speaker 2: So is it like.
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Speaker 1: An infrastructure play? Like, how should we be thinking about it? Is this just America transforming itself into an AI infrastructure? Because it seems like we have a lot more Yeah, I'm seeing you.
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Speaker 2: Kind of shake your head.
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Speaker 1: But it's confusing when you hear everyone's updating on AI. Everyone's updating on AI, and it's like, well, at least when the Internet came around, we were all learning how to purchase on the internet, and we were all learning how to create stores on the internet and how to market ourselves, and communications were different. With this, it feels less of I can understand what this thing is doing as a job creator. But I'm an optimist with it because I do see it as an eventual job creator and I love what it's doing for health and science totally. But yeah, it's just a weird moment.
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Speaker 3: That's the lynchpin, right That investment boom that causes job booms usually shows up in the form of productivity, and we've seen a ton of productivity gains, but not with any new job creation, which I guess like is kind of the point. But the question is what happens after Now. I am extremely bullish on the application of AI. And as I said at the beginning of this segment, you know, anecdote is not data. But you and I used to go on radio and talk about all of this stuff pre AI twenty sixteen when I started my first business. Then I went in house to Amazon. Now I'm running my second consulting business, and it boggles.
00:06:37
Speaker 4: My mind that I did this without AI.
00:06:39
Speaker 3: The number of things that's fair I can offload now and you know this too as a solo operator. For us, the trade off isn't like do I hire five people to do this or do I use AI? It's do I stay up all night to do this? And burn the candle up both ends, or do I use AI? And so I do think there's going to be an adjustment period, and there's certainly not have attention being paid to the economic and as we talked about earlier, kind of like the ethical and philosophical underpinning of how AI is applied to society, because that's going to fact how people think about their jobs. But I'm super bullish on what it's going to do for productivity, particularly for our cohort, the millennials who've been hustling and grinding for twenty five years, Like this is going to allow us to offload some of that capacity that right now has to live in our brains.
00:07:27
Speaker 4: That's going to permit us to use our humanity.
00:07:31
Speaker 1: It is really interesting. College graduate unemployment for ages twenty three to twenty seven has risen what I don't necessarily and again you're the expert, but I don't necessarily see that as a reflection of AI and more is a reflection of the like no one has to go into an office. I mean, these people's networks are I think they've been cheated culturally, not technologically. I think they've been cheated culture truly of like understanding how work works.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, that is a great point, and you know it's I don't know. I'm a mom of three young kids, right, so, like right now, my oldest is in grade school, so we're like doing the debate of like do we put her in sports or do we let her have like a childhood summer, you know, And we have not done a good job of preparing our institutions to be agile in the face of innovation, right.
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Speaker 1: Because it's what I have to interrupt you, because our institutions, our higher education institutions have failed. They are supposed to be the hubs of innovation. They are supposed to be where the trend gets set, and they've just totally dropped the ball. I mean, it's psychotic to me. And I'm very hard on higher education because I think they have screwed up an enormous amount. They have given the millennials and gen z a level of debt that if any credit card company did, they would be dragged in for Capitol Hill hearings and they would be said, you know, you are not too big to fail. And it is crazy the amount of degrees that they've sold on a lie to the American people, and they should be called out on it.
00:09:13
Speaker 2: I have zero respect. This is why I brought Maddie back.
00:09:16
Speaker 1: It's because I said, you know, sometimes I do have opinions, and I typically side stuff them. But this is one that is psychotic because you got all these kids who are booing tech leaders for creating the technology that they couldn't go a second without.
00:09:33
Speaker 2: I just have to bold.
00:09:34
Speaker 1: Highlight underline that point. I'm not talking about TikTok, by the way. I'm actually talking about the way you get your money, the way you order groceries, the way you show up to get your health insurance or go to a hospital.
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Speaker 2: And you're gonna.
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Speaker 1: Boo the people who have kept this country safe as a matter of technology security. Come on, this was the one time I can't believe you're getting me to admit this. The one time I missed being on cable news was not through anything that's happened, because I really I don't have cable, by the way, and I don't have a television in my apartment. Was when I saw that college kids were booing tech leaders. I thought they look bad, but their professors look worse.
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Speaker 3: This whole generation has been raised in the idea that everything has a has a prevailing dichotomy, right, Like if you're not booing the tech leaders, you're lionizing them, when in fact, there are things you can learn.
00:10:26
Speaker 4: From people who've been successful in business without agree with everything that they do.
00:10:30
Speaker 3: And like this whole idea that there's no nuance left in that conversation is certainly what I have seen, as you know, someone who operates in.
00:10:39
Speaker 4: That world of red versus blue. It's really interesting. And this is why you and I get going on.
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Speaker 3: This is like we're from Midwest manufacturing towns, right, So it's.
00:10:49
Speaker 1: Like I'm not from the Midwest. I'm from Delco, which is out.
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Speaker 4: This is the debate. I would not consider del CoA the Midwest either.
00:10:55
Speaker 1: But yes, we have a lot in common with how we grew up. So yes, like refinery workers and engineers and you know all of that is where I'm from.
00:11:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, And my point is that it took me. You know, I went to public school. I had a public school education.
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Speaker 3: I did three I graduated early to try to reduce the amount. Right, It's just like I did all of that, and it probably took me at least six years still to earn what my compatriots in high school were earning who went and worked building fire trucks in my hometown.
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Speaker 4: You know, it's like, these are good jobs and we've looked down our noses at them for.
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Speaker 2: A long time. Pa.
00:11:33
Speaker 3: You know what, like Pierce manufacturing, AI is not going to build all those fire trucks. They want people with the DO and the QC. And that will always be the case.
00:11:43
Speaker 2: And I talked about it. I mean I've done like three episodes now.
00:11:45
Speaker 1: I mean, space is a huge thing that I cover for Meet the Future and Hello Future, and I call them space collar jobs, and they're the best. They're manufacturing jobs. I go build the telescope that's going to discover aliens in another world. I mean, those are cool jobs. The thing about the booing of the tech commencement speakers and everything, listen, if they feel strongly about it and they've got their reasons.
00:12:05
Speaker 2: You know, who am I to judge. I'm not.
00:12:07
Speaker 1: I'm not here to, like, you know, be the old man that says, don't boo, I'm on the side of innovation.
00:12:11
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:12:12
Speaker 2: And when I heard that, that's I'm not telling you don't boo. You want to boom boo?
00:12:15
Speaker 1: If this was happening in China and the Communist Party of China, they would not be able to boo.
00:12:21
Speaker 2: They would not be able to boo. It's called tim and square.
00:12:24
Speaker 1: So I get really passionate about this because it's it's not to me a left or right. But we've like lost sight that it's okay to want America to win and we have to want to win the future.
00:12:36
Speaker 4: Memories are very short.
00:12:37
Speaker 3: We forget that it has been the combination of private enterprise and public leadership that has allowed America to win the future. During World War Two, turning private manufacturing in order to provide munition for an overseas war.
00:12:51
Speaker 4: Could we do that.
00:12:52
Speaker 3: Today or would these leaders be under so much pressure for people to not be able to support our government?
00:12:59
Speaker 1: You know?
00:13:00
Speaker 3: Again, like I come from a libertarian point of view in the world, I am skeptical of everything the government does. But that doesn't mean that I'm not proud to be an American and it doesn't mean that I don't want American companies to win.
00:13:11
Speaker 2: Amen.
00:13:11
Speaker 1: All right, Maddie Dopler, how are you liking things with forward Strategies and doing your podcast The Trade Off?
00:13:18
Speaker 2: I love it. It's awesome. How are things going.
00:13:21
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a lot of fun to be able to kind of build your own platform.
00:13:25
Speaker 2: You know that, Kevin, It's hard work. Though, it's a lot of hard work.
00:13:29
Speaker 3: Well talk about hustling, right, Like, I don't know how I did any of this. I guess you know, I was doing a lot of cable news prior. But like, yeah, AI is like a huge help in producing my podcast. But right now, you know, what I'm trying to do is kind of bring the totality of my experience, having gone in house at a Fortune five company, having run my own business, having been a part of some of the most pivotal policy campaigns of the last fifteen years. I'm just hoping to bring that expertise to more companies because I think if companies have like a clear you of what it is that their policy objectives are, they don't get like all wayed down with this conversation about like, you know, should we be posturing this way or should we be naval gazing this It's like you have a job to do it and to deliver for your customers. I'm just I'm helping firms navigate a very sticky kind of public affairs environment which is a lot of fun because I get to learn a lot of new industries amazing.
00:14:25
Speaker 1: Well, it's awesome to see you continue to kill it and you are going to be a frequent guest on our show. So thank you so much, and news.
00:14:32
Speaker 4: Better every day.
00:14:33
Speaker 3: You're my main source for the future I never know about I know nothing about space otherwise.
00:14:39
Speaker 1: Okay, Maddie Doupler, have a great tomorrow today, and thank you for showing up to meet the future.