Episode 130: Draft Combine Reactions & Complex League Sleepers

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to Future Projection, a Baseball America podcast. This is episode 130 of the show. I'm Carlos Collazo, joined by Ben Badler. A day late, but we're still hitting that weekly cadence, Ben.
00:00:13
Speaker 2: What's going on?
00:00:14
Speaker 3: I'm good, Carlos. How's the draft combine?
00:00:18
Speaker 2: It was good. Yeah, that is the reason.
00:00:19
Speaker 1: I guess we're not a day late, technically. Maybe just a few hours late. We're recording this podcast on a Friday. That is not typically the case. We'll try and get it out on the same day, but... Yeah, it was nice to get out for the combine. I believe it's the fifth year of the combine out in Phoenix, Arizona. And I mean, before we get into like some of the players and actual on-field stuff, I just have to say people who willingly live in Phoenix, Arizona are just built different, Ben, because that heat, I know people always try and act like the dry heat is so much more bearable. than, I guess, the humidity that I'm more accustomed to in the Southeast. I don't think it's any better. I landed and it was 113 degrees. Every time I've been in Phoenix for the last two or three years, my phone tells me there's an excessive heat warning, which just feels like everyday living out in Phoenix. And I'm walking around with Bill Mitchell and Jesus Cano and Nathan Lombardo, who are there as part of the BA crew. And they're walking around like this is just a regular Tuesday. And I'm looking around like, wondering if society has collapsed because the heat is no joke um but we're actually at the event we're in an air-conditioned major league stadium so i have no real complaints i'm just mostly impressed that people can live there and deal with this regularly because i was very excited to get back to my 68 degree air-conditioned apartment after flying back yesterday.
00:01:46
Speaker 3: Well now imagine being a catcher in the arizona complex league going out there every day trying to do that and probably losing about 10 pounds of.
00:01:56
Speaker 2: Sweat every day.
00:01:57
Speaker 1: I think I lost weight just walking around in like the, the five minute intervals that I was actually outside. So yeah, I mean, catchers in general are crazy and then catchers who have to do it in Phoenix. Uh, I don't know whether or not they're willing or like decided to be out there.
00:02:14
Speaker 2: They're kind of assigned there.
00:02:15
Speaker 1: They don't have much say, but, uh, it is, it is just a different world out there, but no combine was fun.
00:02:20
Speaker 2: Combine was good.
00:02:21
Speaker 1: Got to see a lot of players, uh, We have a lot of coverage on the site. I mean, my typical pieces of coverage are there and live on the site. If you want to see a bunch of standouts, players that jumped out to me as I was watching them. We've got day one notebook with 11 players, notes, video, data. Day two notebook with just 10. I guess I slacked off on the second day.
00:02:41
Speaker 2: Notes, video, data. Then we got full leaderboards of pitching data, hitter data.
00:02:45
Speaker 1: And it was also nice to just have Jesus and Nathan up in the BA suite doing a lot of player interviews. So we've got a lot of just more like human interest pieces of content, videos of some of the top prospects. I know there are interviews that are being cut up on that end. So I'm really excited about just the general sort of coverage of the event. So if you're interested in it, there's a ton on baseballamerica.com. The Instagram has been putting out lots of clips of the actual on-field footage. We have a ton more of that to roll out.
00:03:14
Speaker 2: But it's good.
00:03:14
Speaker 1: It's become a real staple of the draft, obviously. And this year we had a couple of really prominent first-round players expected first round picks doing things on field.
00:03:24
Speaker 2: So I think the.
00:03:25
Speaker 1: Fact that we're continuing to get high level players take part in the action just makes it even more exciting.
00:03:33
Speaker 3: Who were the top guys there as far as like the on field stuff? Like I know Seth Hernandez was there. Jamie Arnold was there, but those guys are just going to do medicals, interviews, meet with teams, that kind of stuff.
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Speaker 1: Yeah. Shout out to both those guys. There were one of a handful that came and did interviews with, with us. So we've got some content coming from those two specifically, in addition to a bunch of others, the whole Corona trio, Billy Carlson, Brady evil, also stopped by Liam Doyle, Andrew Fisher, a number more, but in terms of players who were taking part in the on-field action case in Cunningham and Jojo Parker, we have them ranked 10 to 12. on our board at the moment, those are the most high profile. And I believe those two might be the most high, high profile players in general, with the exception of Tamar Johnson, and then maybe cam Collier. I don't remember exactly where we had cam Collier ranked when he was participating on the.
00:04:26
Speaker 2: Field in the 2022 draft.
00:04:30
Speaker 1: Um, he would have been somewhere in the 10 to 20 range. I don't remember if we had him closer to 10 or 20. No, he went closer to 20 on draft day, but in terms of rankings, like comparable, uh, talents of those guys. Um, those four Colson Montgomery, uh, Luke Dickerson got paid like a first rounder. We didn't have him quite that high on the board, but it was cool to see those guys take part because I mean, Casey Cunningham, I would feel like if I was him, there's absolutely no need for him to go out there and do a batting practice and do infield workout. Like his, his bat is as proven as anyone in the class, same kind of deal with Jojo Parker.
00:05:04
Speaker 2: Now I don't, uh, Jojo didn't do infield drills. Um, He just took BP? I believe so, yeah. Interesting.
00:05:13
Speaker 1: Unless I'm completely blanking on his infield session. But yeah, both him and Jacob took BP, hit balls pretty hard. I'm just scanning back and making sure I'm not going completely crazy with him doing infield because I don't remember him taking infield.
00:05:30
Speaker 3: Tate South, the scene was there, right? Shortstop, high school shortstop, Brandon Compton, right?
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Speaker 1: Yep. Brandon Compton, by the way, You're talking about standouts. His BP was ridiculous. He had the PJ Morlando batting practice session from a year ago where it was just tank after tank after tank after tank. I mean, I don't think anyone was questioning whether or not Brandon Compton had a lot of power, but it was a pretty loud reminder of the fact that he has a ton of juice. He absolutely blew everyone out of the water in terms of just like average exit velocity in terms of his BP's. I'm looking at our hitter leaderboard here and just sorting by average exit velocity. So again, this is like batting practice. So it's not like an average exit velocity for game performance that we typically cite, but he had a 110.1 mile per hour average EV in his batting practice sessions. Number two on that board was Landon Viderik at 103.9. So basically a six mile per hour jump between one and two feels pretty insane. He also had the top max EV of, unsurprisingly at 116.9 um but yeah it was a pretty pretty eye-opening batting practice session.
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Speaker 3: How much does that move the needle for you or for teams when you see what brandon compton did obviously it's just bp like you said but when when you see a guy hitting balls 117 miles an hour with a wood bat i think you feel pretty confident okay this guy has legitimate Plus, plus raw power. I mean, at Arizona State, he hit nine home runs in 59 games. It wasn't like a massive power shelling. He hit well in the Cape last year, but especially given just the differences in equipment that college hitters use compared to professional hitters. And you have teams wondering, okay, how much of this is metal bat equipment? right power and is this player not him specifically but just more broadly you know is this hitter using a bat that may have been tampered with that is using it even more how do we account for that so when you see a guy go out there and put up pretty close to top of the scale type of raw power does that affect his status seeing that in in this environment.
00:08:04
Speaker 1: I feel like it has to at least make you feel more confident in the power projection, kind of like you were saying. These teams are going to have some data points with him in a wood bat from the Cape in.
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Speaker 2: 2024 and maybe the Northwoods.
00:08:16
Speaker 1: I don't know if teams get track man data or a lot of better ball data from the Northwoods League.
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Speaker 3: From a year ago, sure.
00:08:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, from 24, 23. So they probably had some idea of his power, and I'm sure there are teams that are like a number of players can go to big league parks and do pre-draft workouts and teams will get that data in their own facilities and their own sessions. So it's not like this data doesn't exist, but just to have, to have it for every single team just has the information a month out from the draft.
00:08:47
Speaker 2: So it's not like it's old outdated batted ball data.
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Speaker 1: I think that probably just makes you feel a much greater level of comfort in, in the power, even though again, like, it's pretty easy to look at him and take BP even with metal bats and understand that he does have a lot of power, but I think having the data will make a lot of teams just feel more comfortable and what they're getting exactly. I can't imagine it moves the needle too much in terms of his draft stock, maybe for some teams who like really wait that, that bad at ball data heavily in their models and like wanted to get more updated information and maybe didn't have it prior to this combine event. Um, but no, I, I mean, it only is going to help him. It was, it was the best batting practice of what we had almost a hundred hitters take BP over the course of two days. And it was like very overwhelmingly the most impressive round that has to mean something.
00:09:47
Speaker 3: Yeah. What about, uh, what'd you think of Quentin young high school, I guess, shortstop shortstop for now.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's not a shortstop for me, but.
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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, you'll find... somewhere to play i think i think he has a chance to at least play third base if not corner outfield but this is a high school yeah high school player who was hitting balls up to 115 as a yeah what is he still seven he might be 18 Now, I know he's like a reclass guy from 2026 originally, but he was on the older side for that class. But either way, I mean, this guy has just absolutely monster size, ferocious bat speed. I have questions about how much he's going to hit or how much he might.
00:10:37
Speaker 1: He turned 18 in March, so he's newly 18.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, to be hitting balls that hard and with still physical upside for more to come, I mean, it's easy 70 raw power. I could see him having 80 raw power one day. Obviously, there's some bloodlines there, too. Nephew of Dimitri and Delman Young. So I was curious what you thought of him.
00:11:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it kind of just reinforced to me the profile of I expected him to be, I expected him to be this really big physical power hitter. And he showed that, I mean, one of the homers he hit was massively impressive because it was a straight away, um, like towering fly ball that hit like the middle of the batter's eye in center field.
00:11:29
Speaker 2: At a big league park.
00:11:30
Speaker 1: And like typically in these environments, most hitters are yanking balls to their pole side and you're not really using, um, centerfield or opposite field too much and if you are it's like a lot of line drives but that one specific hit was really eye-opening to me i mean his swing seems very much geared to get the ball in the air and do damage on contact again just like getting to look at some of these data points we have with with the information we get from this event his average launch angle was 33 degrees in his bp session which i believe and i'm just confirming here Zach York at Grand Canyon was a little bit higher but he was the second steepest launch angle on average um I think that generally kind of tracks with what I would expect given how his swing works um he is a huge power threat moving forward and like you said there's still a lot of power that maybe you could even continue to see him adding it's like 60 or 70 raw.
00:12:26
Speaker 2: Power now easily um I don't know.
00:12:30
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on the pure hitting ability with Quinn? Because it's almost like you can, as you listen to us talk about these player types, this is almost always the question with players like this, is just how much are they going to hit? I do think there are some moving parts to the swing. The fact that it is as steep as it is makes me wonder if there will be holes that will be exposed in pro ball. I think he does have a history of being aggressive and having some swing and miss tendencies at times, but if you think he's going to hit enough to tap into that power and you think he's got a chance to play a couple different defensive positions at a high level, given his athleticism, it's a pretty appealing package. Um, and he's got a great arm. He didn't fully let it loose. I don't think in the infield drills, I also noticed too, that almost all of the shortstops had a much more realistic in and out session than they do at some of the showcases where they're it oftentimes looks like they're just trying to throw the ball across the diamond as hard as they can. It was a lot more like game timing in terms of them, like in the ball in and out of the glove. We didn't see a ton of like quadruple shuffle steps. So I know you'll be a fan of that, but I know Quentin Young has a 70 arm, even if he didn't fully let it eat. So yeah, the young profile is not my typical cup of tea. but there's no denying his upside. Yeah.
00:13:59
Speaker 3: He's, he's six foot. I mean, six foot five. Is he, I don't know. He might be six, six.
00:14:04
Speaker 2: Now he's six, five. Yeah.
00:14:07
Speaker 3: He's six, five. He's an enormous human being. He's there's definitely some length to the swing. You talked about the steepness to the bat path too. And it's a very aggressive approach too. So there's just a lot of things where I wonder, uh, okay, how much contact, how much on-base skill is going to be there, but nobody questions this guy's power. I would not be surprised if he hits 30-plus home runs one day in the big leagues, but it is a question of, okay, how does the approach translate? How does the swing translate? But there's gigantic power there. He does have... big arm strength too i know he he certainly seems like he wants to play shortstop so um hopefully you can just stay like lean or just athletic enough to play third base if not go to right field so uh it's you know it's like the opposite of a case in cunningham right where case in cunningham is that really short really quick swing yeah make a ton of contact put the ball in play maybe have some sneaky juice in there for a guy who's he got a realistically 5'8 maybe not that big of a guy.
00:15:31
Speaker 1: He got evs up to 107.2 i think that's pretty solid for his his size his age his pure hitting ability like it's not obviously i wouldn't expect him to get like upwards of 110 but i think that is a pretty decent max ev in this bp session and i'm always i mean we can stick on quentin young if you want or move to cunningham but Man, Cunningham's hands and just the way his swing works is so fun for me to watch.
00:15:59
Speaker 2: He's just constantly on the barrel. It's so snappy.
00:16:02
Speaker 1: It feels like wherever the ball's pitched in the zone, he's like on plane and on time and on the barrel. It's just such a direct, just hitterish look every single time I see him. I really, really like case in Cunningham and it was good to see him go through the in and out drills as well.
00:16:19
Speaker 2: But there's video of the swing. from that BP session.
00:16:23
Speaker 1: If you want to check it out on the site, I'm sure we've got tons of case gunning and video over the years, but just getting an updated look. It's just, it's just such a snappy hitters look in the box. It's fun to watch him hit.
00:16:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess I'm not super surprised for as talented as he is that he did go to the combine and participate on field. Cause he just seems like an absolute baseball rat who you can't peel away from.
00:16:48
Speaker 2: And I also saw him just like walking around.
00:16:51
Speaker 1: Chase field when he wasn't doing stuff like he was just and maybe he had interviews scheduled all day i'm sure he did but like i just saw him around a lot maybe it's because he has a very distinctive look so i could pick him out easy and uniform off the field but he just seemed to be eating up the whole environment um so it was good to see him there.
00:17:09
Speaker 3: Yeah just very instinctive high baseball iq player great play coverage love the way he has such an adjustable swing to cover any pitch, any part of the strike zone, great hand-eye coordination. And I'm curious what you thought of him defensively during infield because I think people look at him and say, well, he's little and just like a knee-jerk reaction to push little guys to second base. And maybe he does end up there because there's only so many shortstops who are starting shortstops in the big leagues. But I'd put him out there at shortstop until he proves he can't do it anymore because I think he has good defensive actions and good defensive instincts too.
00:17:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he has good instincts, good actions, good hands, good quickness. The one tool I wonder about is just the arm with him. Like, is he going to have enough arm strength to stick at the position? Can he go back in the hole and get off his back leg really quickly and deliver a ball with a lot of carry to the first base bag with the consistency you need to stick at the position? It's really just like, how is the arm going to look? I think in general, there are a lot of plays when he's like coming in on the ball or ranging to his glove side where he can just get it in and out of the glove quickly enough that like the arm plays up a little bit with his, his transfer and just the quickness that he has in his game. Um, I'm actually maybe more bullish on like his quickness and lateral ability and just range than I think maybe I've seen people talk about, or maybe some of the scouts I've, I've talked to, um, I think he moves around pretty well. So I would definitely start him there and, and see if the arm improves or if he's just on, on teams or in an organization where, okay, there's like an elite or even a plus, um, defender at shortstop like if case and sticks at shortstop long term I would think it's more of this like solid average steady Eddie reliable sort of type the the player that I expected Anthony Volpe maybe to be coming out of high school he's exceeded those expectations and maybe for Cunningham it could be a similar track where the tools just kind of jump in pro ball I don't think he is like this super projectable frame or anything I don't know how like what your thoughts are on projecting arm strength for for players of his profile in general, but really that's my only question with him defensively is like, how much arm is he going to have? Uh, and if he does have to slide from shortstop to second base, just based on the way we were talking about everything he does well, I think he has all the tools to be a good defensive second baseman.
00:19:44
Speaker 2: But yeah, keep him at shortstop and see how long that lasts for sure.
00:19:48
Speaker 3: For you or for teams there evaluating, I guess starting with hitters at the con line, what is the most valuable or most important part there? I guess maybe there's not a ton on what it's BP in and out.
00:20:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, and not everyone takes.
00:20:09
Speaker 1: not every single player does everything, but like what you can do on the field is BP. You can take ground balls at shortstop or third base or second base or first base. You can go in the outfield and you can make throws. Catchers can do pops from behind the plate. Um, and then there is a high school game. Um, but obviously the high school game is much more limited in terms of the number of players taking part.
00:20:34
Speaker 3: Um, And they do athletic testing too.
00:20:37
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:20:37
Speaker 1: So they do, they do a lot of athletic testing on the third day of the combine.
00:20:42
Speaker 2: So on Thursday, I flew out Thursday morning.
00:20:45
Speaker 1: Um, we typically will get some access to the athletic testing numbers and results. I don't know if MLB just straight up posts all of that. Um, but that's definitely valuable information for the teams.
00:20:58
Speaker 2: Um, I'm not sure.
00:21:00
Speaker 1: I think it probably depends like player to player, uh, Are you a high school player who is on the circuit? If you are, maybe a lot of the on-field stuff is less meaningful. Or if you've been scouted really heavily and you're coming to do interviews, the on-field stuff probably won't move the needle a ton just because there's so much the teams already know about you. There are a lot of players at this event. I mean, there are over 300 players invited who were... injured for parts of the spring. And so they didn't get to play as much, or they weren't seen on the showcase circuit either because they weren't big, like showcase ponies, or they were hurt over the summer, or there were helium guys in the spring, or there are smaller school college players who weren't at big summer events. And maybe you don't have a lot of data on them because they're playing at smaller schools that just don't have the tracking systems. So for a lot of those depth players, I think the added data points probably do move the needle or at least represent a bigger picture of like the total information landscape that the teams have on them. And so it can maybe move the needle a little bit more, um, whether that's from a player going towards or going from maybe like a 15 plus round evaluation for most teams to maybe a guy you want to consider in the eight to 12 round range. Like that's, that's a pretty significant jump for the player and for the team specifically, even if from like a public perspective, perspective, that difference is hard to notice or maybe is negligible for us. So I think for those players in particular, it's really helpful. I think also it's probably more useful for pitchers. We say this a ton, but I just think seeing a pitcher one day can be more meaningful than seeing a hitter one day. And especially in this sort of workout environment, it's a lot easier to look at the stuff, look how pitcher moves on the mound, see their, like some understanding of their control and a bullpen situation.
00:23:01
Speaker 2: It's a lot different than having a batter in.
00:23:03
Speaker 1: The box, but you can basically plug all their pitch metrics into whatever model you might have and have a pretty decent idea of how well you think that stuff is going to play. Um, and even if you're not getting super into the weeds on like the pitch movement data, like there's a ton of scouts who are sitting behind the plate, watching these bullpen sessions and, just seeing how this stuff comes out of the hand, I think that can change, um, your evaluation of a pitcher much, much easier than maybe a hitter.
00:23:34
Speaker 2: And for a guy like Marcos pause, this is awesome.
00:23:37
Speaker 1: I was, I was pumped to see Marcos pause, take, uh, take the mound on day two pause, obviously one of the.
00:23:46
Speaker 2: More exciting pitchers in the class.
00:23:47
Speaker 1: He was a guy as an underclassman who was up at the very top of the board with guys like Seth Hernandez and Josh Hammond. at the time when you were doing our underclass high school lists. And I mean, he has massive arm talent and then missed the entirety of the 2024 summer with Tommy John surgery. I think for maybe a month or so, he's been working back on the mound, throwing bullpens and just like getting actually on the field and throwing and to see him at the combine was tremendous for me because I personally hadn't seen him much at all. not focusing on him as an underclassman like you did. I know there are a lot of scouts and teams who just haven't been able to see him as well. And so I think that could be a really significant bolt in session for, for a guy like him.
00:24:30
Speaker 2: And it looked great. Um, in my opinion.
00:24:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's, uh, I gotta think he probably gets to LSU. Just, I don't know how many teams are going to want to pay him. What I imagine will be a pretty considerable asking price given that if he goes to LSU, uh, he has the talent to be first round pick coming out of college.
00:24:55
Speaker 1: I think for him, it's almost entirely like how much does he expect to sign for or like want to sign for? Because if you're a guy coming up who you're, you're talked about as a potential first round high school pitching talent, you just don't have a chance to kind of establish that for yourself. And you really buy into your ability and, and teams in general, um, like there are a handful of teams that'll take a shot on a high school pitcher for a lot of money. And then there's even a subset of those teams who will take a shot on a high school pitcher with his upside and also his injury history and just lack of track record. And so if he thinks that he belongs at the very top of the class on talent and really why shouldn't he, the opportunity to go to LSU and do what Paul Skeens or Kate Anderson did and just dominate in the SEC, like he can make a lot of money for himself if he's not getting competitive offers.
00:25:47
Speaker 3: I think you're also going to have to compete with LSU financially. William Schmick got to campus last year and.
00:25:54
Speaker 1: He could have been a first round pick. LSU is getting guys.
00:26:00
Speaker 3: They're going to offer him an NIL package, I'm sure, that's going to be quite palatable when you stack it up relative to the signing bonus and what he could get over a few years at LSU potentially and then get another crack at that signing bonus. So we'll see what happens. But yeah, I was super fascinated to see him cause I was kind of ruined my summer when I heard he had Tommy John. He's really good. But overall, yeah, I think that the pitch data that comes from that from the combine is going to be valuable for teams. Cause you can't, yes, you can bring guys in for private workouts, right? Either You can set up a pre-draft workout in the player's area, or you can bring them into your complex in Arizona or Florida, or you can bring them into your major league park. But especially for pitchers, they can't do that for all 30 teams. So you got to pick your spots if you're a pitcher, if you're a player, especially coming off of probably a long high school season. So this gives it.
00:27:10
Speaker 2: To every team.
00:27:11
Speaker 1: When agents are deciding on where their players are going for these workouts, they're definitely trying to weed out who's serious, what trips are worth it. Because like you said, you're not going to travel around to all 30 teams. I think the players in general are paying to go do this. It's not like the teams are paying to have them come out.
00:27:26
Speaker 2: I don't believe.
00:27:28
Speaker 1: And so you kind of have to be... narrow in your focus on like which ones, which teams do you think have the most interest, which, which, uh, teams are you most interested in signing with?
00:27:38
Speaker 2: Um, and so you're right.
00:27:39
Speaker 1: Just getting that sort of blanket coverage for every team to, to get this info, um, helps.
00:27:46
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:27:46
Speaker 3: And I think especially for it's, it's especially valuable for not just the pitchers, but for the hitters where you have a, a lower level of certainty, uh, in your evaluation of that player, where, what I mean by that is, okay, if you're scouting a player who's in the sec, you have probably a ton of history, a ton of video, uh, a lot of track man data on all of these players going back for multiple years, including for this season. If it's a player who's at a smaller college, maybe like a mat bar, somebody like that, or especially for a high school player where you may have, you know, you have your scouting evaluations on the player from the spring and okay, but it's highly variable competition levels that they're facing. You may have other, whether it's pitch level data or other data that you're looking at to evaluate these hitters from the summer before, but these players can change quite a bit. from the time they're 17 to their 18 or 18 going on 19 years old. So you don't want to be making decisions based on information in a, in a draft that's in July, 2025 from August last year. Um, it's not like you can lug out your portable track man system to every high school game that you're going to. So yeah, you can get some of the private workouts and things like that. Um, But I think especially for that, like a guy like Michael Oliveto, high school catcher in New York. He's a Yale commit, was not like a super prominent guy on the travel. circuit at really any time in his history. I mean, he went to Jupiter last year.
00:29:49
Speaker 1: That's kind of the event where he started going to. going on an up trajectory. Like it was a really good event for him there.
00:29:55
Speaker 2: But you're right.
00:29:56
Speaker 3: Yeah. So you can, I mean, you can see it's a, it's a really nice left-handed swing. He's six, two, six, three lean frame, a lot of room to fill out. Uh, and then you go to the combine. Okay. Okay. Uh, this guy's hitting balls up to 110 miles an hour already at 18 years old. And it's a lot of space left to fill out and dream on some more power still to come. um right you know tbd on the defense i don't think you're gonna get a ton defensively i don't know like i don't know what he did defensively there uh at the combine but i don't think you're gonna get a ton unless it's you know in a game environment and really you want to see him over a longer course of time for as hard as it is as we've always talked about just to evaluate amateur catching anyway but for players like that i think that's probably where you're getting more value more so than if say like uh you know, I've our cat say where to show up and play. You're not gonna be like, okay, well this changes. This changes a lot.
00:30:57
Speaker 1: Like we don't really need Kate Anderson to show up and throw a bullpen after he's thrown what? 15, 16 starts all, all spring in the sec on TV. Like comprehensive data every single game. So yeah, definitely. I mean, I'm glad you brought up Oliveto. He was one of the swings that I was most enamored with. And the fact that he, was able to get, uh, he was like one of maybe a couple dozen players who got to a max EV of one 10 or higher. And like his average EV was quite a bit off that, but like just seeing the top end is in there with how much in his frame he has still to fill out and just how easy and free that swing is for like a longer levered guy. Um, he's another one that was really fun to watch hit. Dax Kilby also stands out to me. He's just like a hitting approach and a swing that really jumped off, jumped out to me.
00:31:54
Speaker 3: Georgia High School shortstop, yeah.
00:31:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, Georgia High School shortstop.
00:31:57
Speaker 1: I think he's like pretty solidly inside the top three rounds.
00:32:01
Speaker 2: Wouldn't shock me if he goes top two.
00:32:03
Speaker 1: I mean, he's in the range where if someone takes him in like the 20s, that wouldn't be like outlandish, I think. If you're a team that really buys into him. Maybe you don't have a second round pick. Don't think he's going to get back to you. He's got a really. Just well rounded package. Of now skills. Solid tools. Projection physically. One of the other players is going to mention too. You're talking about just like players can change. Joshua Flores. Was an interesting pitcher as well. He's a right handed pitcher. Out of Indiana. Young for the class. But really physical now.
00:32:39
Speaker 2: He's got.
00:32:40
Speaker 1: A lot of like present traits, including like big velocity. He was up to 96, uh, his ability to spin the baseball, I think is maybe one of the most impressive traits with him. And a year ago, last summer at the East coast pro, he was throwing this like downer sort of like hammer curve ball in the low eighties that I thought could be a plus pitch. And then at the combine, he's throwing this harder slider, um, that has different shape and it just looks like a different pitch. Um, so getting data on maybe this like new pitch type, that is a different shape than what he primarily through last summer, at least at the, at the East coast pro event. And he has, I'm sure there are scouts that have seen him throwing the slider this spring, but it's not a pitch that I've seen in person with the sort of frequency he was throwing at the combine. So just like getting a better idea of like, what is the now breaking ball for a guy like that, um, was super useful for me to see. I mean, it's this like, mid 80s high spin slider and like the 2500 rpm range on average um it has this like tight downer shape and tilt um it was one of the more impressive overall sliders just visually for me while watching the bullpens um just the power movement combination from a high school pitcher i thought was was pretty impressive i think he did throw um at least he threw some breaking balls that got tracked as a curveball and i think there is a little bit of noise still on like the pitch classifications in these bullpen sessions because the the units are not like calibrated to each pitcher um so some of these like in between breaking balls will get classified one way or another there was a couple instances where i was just asking the pitchers like hey are you throwing a slider at curveball and they would say.
00:34:26
Speaker 3: Something that's yeah story of my life when you're watching a teenage pitching yeah is that a slider is that a curveball what are you trying to throw.
00:34:36
Speaker 1: There right right so uh still have to deal with that like it's not perfect data i think that maybe is worth just reinforcing here like all these it's useful to have this information but it's not like 100 accurate in terms of like what even the pitch is according to the pitcher and i guess some people say like it it's irrelevant what the pitcher calls it it's just relevant how it looks what the shape actually is and you can bucket it yourself but still interesting to know what they're trying to throw um and how their arsenals have maybe evolved over the last year or so, or maybe year plus as we've been tracking these guys.
00:35:07
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, if something looks like a slider, but the guy's holding with a curveball grip and he says, he's trying to throw a curveball. Okay. What if we actually teach you a real slider grip, then maybe there's some opportunity here for development to enhance that pitch for you. Once we get to get you into pro ball. What about the, what was the scouting or front office crowd? Like there were there, Was it a lot of people there or were teams more like, eh, we'll just get the data or what we can get from that? Or was it a lot of more, I'm sure a lot of teams were there to do interviews and just meet with a ton of players at once too. But it was hard to get a sense for that from the stream of how much the team presence was there.
00:35:54
Speaker 1: There's a great team presence there. Most of it's not going to show up on the stream because most of the, especially like the The higher level scouts are basically in the suites doing interviews all day. And so like the way it works is teams at the suite level of Chase Field, all 30 teams will have just a full suite where they're basically having players come through all day for the first two days. I think maybe for the third as well. I'm not there, so I can't say for certainty. But I know there are players that have interviews scheduled on Thursday with teams. So they're basically just there interviewing players. There are a lot of scouts as well who are down– like at the field watching the actual on-field product and scouting like you would scout any event like this. There was a pretty large group of scouts at the high school game and there are maybe more higher level scouts down behind the plate watching that game just because I think for the most part the interviews are done when that takes place. But you can walk around the back of the suite level and you'll see players sitting outside suites waiting to go in for interviews and really from the time they opened the gates until everyone's out of the park. So I think most of the scouting presence is in the suites, doing interviews, talking with players, getting to know them, getting a feel for them. Um, and then, yeah, I would, I would assume everyone has scouts as well, watching, watching the on-field product. But for me, I'm, I'm on the field, the entirety of the event, trying to just get video, take notes on players, get eyes on guys who I've heard about but haven't seen and even some cases where there's some just like lower profile players who kind of want to see if they're guys that we need to jump on or if there may be just kind of some lower flyers that a few teams are intrigued by for for one reason or another so that's kind of I'd say it's a really good scout crowd in general though.
00:37:46
Speaker 3: Yeah it seems like a lot of it's a good way to get a lot of especially the high school players all on the same field, evaluating them in the same environment. Yeah. Granted, it's mostly a workout, not a game, but especially that, you know, the second and third tier player, right? Like, okay, like Seth Hernandez and Billy Carlson and Ethan holiday or not on the field doing activities there. But a lot of the other guys who we have ranked, you know, maybe say from like a 75 to two 300 or so, or, Um, maybe, maybe, maybe there were some guys who we would move around a little bit based on what they showed there. I just have a better feel for these players now. Um, I'm actually curious though, cause you did mention the game, which we haven't talked about at all. How, how useful was that? I mean, it seems like a lot of the guys who played in the actual game were more so guys that you would largely expect will get to college. Was there just less usefulness in the game relative to the workout. I know that probably sounds strange to, to hear, but.
00:38:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, I, I think probably it is, um, maybe for some of the pitchers who are throwing in like an actual game situation is really useful. And I think for a player like, like Bruin Agbayani, who is a Hawaiian high school player, he had a really good showing in the game. He walked twice, had two competitive ABs and then hit a triple and, in his third plate appearance, I believe.
00:39:21
Speaker 2: So he just looked.
00:39:22
Speaker 1: Good generally, also looked good um, in his batting practice session. So like that appearance, um, maybe it moves the needle for him a little bit. Um, but I do think, I mean, at least from my perspective, I was like, it was like 7. PM when the game was started and I was going from East to West time and had just been at the field all day. So it was like, what, like, pretty late for my mind. And I was like pretty, uh, I was not fully functioning at a hundred percent at.
00:39:54
Speaker 3: That too much air conditioning for you.
00:39:56
Speaker 1: Right. Too much AC, um, too much AC and, and free snacks and drinks for me. It was really, really a grind. Um, so my mind was a little bit mush at that point. Um, I mean, there are some players that, that did some nice things. It's hard for me to say, I don't really think that the high school game moves the needle significantly. Um, For players, it would be surprising to me if that were the case. So yeah, I think all the workout stuff is maybe a little bit more impactful.
00:40:27
Speaker 3: Did they do anything differently this year? You said they've been doing the combine now for five years. I thought you were going to say two or three years, but I guess you're right. Do they do anything differently this year compared to years past, or is it more or less the same as what you've always seen there?
00:40:45
Speaker 2: Um, yeah, it's been the, and let me just double check.
00:40:48
Speaker 1: Yeah. This is the fifth edition of the event just to confirm it's, it's kind of the same format that it has been. Uh, the one that was different was the first one for me at USA baseball's facility and carry that event was not a very good event. I don't think we got a lot of negative reaction to it from scouts who went at the time. And there was like, it was like a real struggle to just like get the players you wanted there.
00:41:10
Speaker 3: Because of the heat? People just didn't like the heat in carry?
00:41:15
Speaker 1: I mean, I think people would have dealt with the heat regardless if the players who they wanted to show up showed up. I think mostly it was a case of just not getting the players. I think MLB is reasonably excited about just the acceptance rate and the players they're getting to come to the event. And we talked about guys like Cunningham and Parker doing on-field things.
00:41:34
Speaker 2: I think like.
00:41:36
Speaker 1: The fact that the event is established now and the logistics, at least on my end, seem to be pretty ironed out. It's a pretty well-run event. The timing of how everything works is pretty dialed in. Teams know what to expect. Players know what to expect. Agents know what to expect. There's a pretty, from my perspective, seamless schedule for the on-field, the off-field, the athletic testing, the interviews, the medical stuff. it just feels like they kind of know what they're doing now. And everyone is on the same page. So no, it's, it's kind of a pretty established routine from my perspective. And I think it's like, I think it's a good event on the calendar at this point. How was it from like, how much were we actually watching? I know they had on day one, they have the MLB network broadcast of a lot of the on-field action and their, highlighting the players and showing some of the BP, some of the infield drills. They've got the MLB network desk there. And then on day two, I think this is new from previously, but they just had like a stream set up on MLB.com. I don't even think previously that was streamed at all, but what was your, what was your thought or what did you think of how the event was broadcast?
00:42:57
Speaker 3: The stream on day one, I thought was well done. We talked about it on the last episode of how I think it's best served when you're just catering to the audience that wants to watch these players. That's the reason they're tuning in. They want to know more about these players. They want to see the data that comes along with it. They want to see the players. They don't want to tune in for a talk show that's tangentially about the event, but is just really talking about, you know, Raphael Devers or some other thing in the major leagues right now. And I think overall they did a pretty good job with that. I mean, it kind of catered a little around, okay, like let's make sure we show CC Sabathia's kid. Let's make sure we show Manny Ramirez's kid. And that's fine. I think people actually are interested in seeing what the sons of especially, well, Hall of Fame caliber players.
00:43:57
Speaker 1: Right.
00:43:59
Speaker 3: Or just former big league stars looked what their kids look like. So, okay, fine. Show them a little bit more than maybe the talent dictates. But overall, yeah, I thought they did a really good job giving you a look at each player, the BPs, the bullpens, the in and out. It was good. And then the second day, they got to fix that. I mean, it was just a four-camera stream from bad angles. Half the cameras were obstructed views, so you're just looking at the backside or the calves of somebody who's standing in front of the camera. You can't see who's hitting you can't see who's taking infield.
00:44:55
Speaker 2: Are there graphics or audio on that stream.
00:44:57
Speaker 3: There is no graphics they gotta hire some intern or somebody who can speak you actually don't even need to speak English all you need to do is just read the name of who's hitting.
00:45:10
Speaker 1: Yeah and there is an in stadium PA announcer announcing the name so I would imagine yeah the fact that there's just no audio at all on that second stream sounds like like if you just had audio picking up like and maybe maybe they don't want to do that because who knows what's going to be picked up as people are walking around the field uh but yeah there's like a pa in-house that's announcing everyone who's hitting or the next person taking ground balls or the next pitcher on the mound like we we get the the in-stadium pa announcer.
00:45:39
Speaker 3: There yeah they just didn't care and it showed um yeah i can't imagine i don't.
00:45:44
Speaker 2: Know i don't watch the second day streamed previously or no I don't know. I don't remember it.
00:45:51
Speaker 1: Being streamed because I remember seeing a link to a stream this year and I was like, oh, typically I thought it was just televised for MLB Network. So maybe this is like Baby Steps getting towards something better and maybe their thought process is like some video of it is better than nothing.
00:46:07
Speaker 2: We'll at least turn the cameras on for you.
00:46:09
Speaker 1: But I did look at like the four, like the four and four box they had with all those just static camera angles you're talking about and it does feel like I don't know what you take from that.
00:46:20
Speaker 3: Yeah. You can't see anything. You don't know who's hitting. Um, and I don't think it's that hard of a fix. I can't imagine. I don't watch the NFL combine, but I can't imagine that the NFL, the NFL would have ever have a stream or a broadcast like that because there were a lot of players who, who went up on the second day who were pretty interesting draft prospects who, yeah, Yeah, I wanted to see Marcos Paz throw his bullpen. All right, I guess I've got to wait for you to post a video of it.
00:46:56
Speaker 1: Which you can see right now, baseballamerica.com. Great view on the field right behind him.
00:47:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. Maybe I shouldn't complain because now we have it in MLB.
00:47:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe we'll just create a landing page for all the good video of every player with all the video I took.
00:47:09
Speaker 2: You can see it there. Don't go down the way.
00:47:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it just seems like if I had to change one thing about what they did, it's that second day broadcast. I think people look.
00:47:21
Speaker 2: I understand that can be like that. That could even be an opportunity.
00:47:24
Speaker 1: That could even be the opportunity to really like if, if they're getting rid of the MLB network crew, the sets out there, that that's your opportunity to really dial into like the draft nerds and just really focus on every player as they're taking BP or as they're pitching.
00:47:39
Speaker 2: We can just be super locked in to what's actually going on in the field. That'd be cool.
00:47:45
Speaker 3: Yeah. Just, just show, just have a camera showing each thing. I mean, even if it's just a center field camera for BP, that's fine. Even if it's just a camera, you know, all you need is one camera then off to the side for, for in and out.
00:48:02
Speaker 1: The problem with that is you'll have to, for the in and out, any, any of the defensive stuff, maybe outside of catcher, you definitely need someone to be manning that camera and tracking the the player movement. You can't just set it and forget it like you could for BPs or even the bullpen sessions.
00:48:19
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm hopeful that like.
00:48:21
Speaker 3: I think they have the money to pay a camera guy to.
00:48:24
Speaker 1: Well, I was going to say, I'm hopeful that the ratings for it are good or at least growing because I imagine if there's like a demand for people to watch it, there will be pressure on them to make the Day 2 product better.
00:48:36
Speaker 2: So hopefully that is the case.
00:48:38
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:48:38
Speaker 3: Well, if you want to grow interest in the draft and if you want to grow interest in... your draft combine, if you're major league baseball, you should, you should disseminate this broadcast to people in a way that's, um, watchable. Cause I, you know, look, I have, I think I love this as much as anybody.
00:48:59
Speaker 1: Right.
00:48:59
Speaker 3: And it was unwatchable. I just got nothing from it. I just had to turn it off, unfortunately.
00:49:04
Speaker 1: Right. All right. Head to baseballamerica.com for great video and content of day two of MLB's draft combine.
00:49:11
Speaker 2: Is there anything you.
00:49:12
Speaker 3: Would change from being there in person about how it was run? Yeah, I would love to. have Seth Hernandez get out there and throw.
00:49:23
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:49:23
Speaker 2: I don't even want Seth Hernandez to throw. Cause I'd be worried he would get hurt. I don't think he needs to throw.
00:49:28
Speaker 1: I would love to be able to clone myself so that I could both watch everything on the field and also hang out in our suite and interview a bunch of players and because it is nice that we get access to a lot of the players who come through and it's fun to like talk to them, like talk about their season, talk about their development. Like I was up in the suite for like a few minutes when I was like dumping video on my laptop or just like grabbing food and just getting like little slivers of the interviews that Jesus and Nathan were doing with the players. It's just cool to talk to them and to see them ask some questions and just joke around with them and, uh, just get to know them a little bit more and just kind of like the team. So that was cool. And it's just, I don't have the bandwidth to be able to do both. Uh, and so for me, it's been like, I need to prioritize the on-field video and like taking notes of what's going on on the field. Um, and we've got other people who can do some of those interviews. So I would just like to be able to, to take part in more of it. And also like, it's hard to, I know a lot of people who are at the combine and it's very difficult to actually have a conversation with anyone there. Uh, cause everyone's just so busy. Um, so that's really the only thing, um, in terms of like the logistics for the setup.
00:50:40
Speaker 2: Um, I don't know.
00:50:41
Speaker 1: I feel like it's fairly well run. Um, there's nothing that's like standing out to me. Like the day two video setup is probably the only thing I would, I would ask. Yeah, I can't think of anything.
00:51:00
Speaker 3: How about you? Well, I gave you my answer.
00:51:03
Speaker 1: Outside of the video, is that the only one? Because there's only so much you could do. I mean, maybe it would be cool to see.
00:51:09
Speaker 3: I.
00:51:11
Speaker 1: Don't know if it would actually be cool to see or not the athletic testing.
00:51:14
Speaker 3: I think it would be boring as hell. Watching guys do box jumps or force play testing or sprint 30 yards.
00:51:24
Speaker 1: It's kind of weird to me... Because people love watching the NFL combine. People love watching the 40-yard dash and some of the... I think people do like some of the jumping, but also there are a lot of baseball athletes who just don't look quite as explosive in those testing environments. So maybe when it's NFL players versus baseball players, you're going to get some elite athletes in baseball who will be pretty impressive in those environments.
00:51:50
Speaker 2: But talking to.
00:51:52
Speaker 1: some of the guys with MLB who are actually videoing the athletic testing, like them talking about the gap between the really good athletes and the jump plate or the force plate versus the non-athletes. Like seeing some of those guys like struggle through some of these non-baseball oriented athletic testing.
00:52:09
Speaker 2: Drills is probably not ideal.
00:52:12
Speaker 1: So it probably makes sense for that not to be super publicized, but I'd be interested at least to watch some of the top guys go through them.
00:52:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, there are teams that do put quite a bit of emphasis, whether it's on the data that MLB collects from their, you know, MLB slash USA baseball from their athletic testing or from their team's own internal testing. They do put quite a bit of value on some of those metrics with force plates, which is not, I remember writing a story about it like 10 years ago about force play testing and all that stuff because I think it's interesting and you can find some guys who are more have more sneaky explosiveness than you realize maybe just from watching them but I think it's also kind of a trap to a certain extent where I just think raw athleticism historically gets overvalued by, I guess you could call it traditional scouting and the actual ability to, uh, the on-field skill can get under valued. Now that's necessarily universal thing. And now a lot of scouts have been doing this for, I think a long time.
00:53:40
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, just.
00:53:41
Speaker 3: Especially from my years of doing this in Latin America, realize that, okay, like, yeah, the on-field skill component is a lot more important than just like the raw tools and raw athleticism. But, um, it feels like now, okay, we can put a number to quantify more of the athletic ability, the raw athleticism, and that's helpful, but the ability to now count something or the ability to now quantify something makes it easier to just look at that number on paper and overvalue it instead of just saying, okay, well, is this guy actually going to hit like, right.
00:54:26
Speaker 2: Yeah. That makes sense.
00:54:27
Speaker 1: Yeah. I guess trying to figure out like, and weed out like what pieces of the athleticism will actually be useful to you in like a player development context, um, is probably like what you're looking for. Um, Yeah, I could easily see people overrating athleticism given the way we can quantify it with a lot of these testing, new testing that we're doing on that side.
00:54:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's ways it's valuable in terms of, okay, this guy has more explosive ability. This guy has the capacity for more power, whether it's a pitcher or a hitter, than you might think just from looking at him physically. But also a lot of the testing is like, Okay, I'm sure Steel Hall grades out great on athletic testing. Anybody who's watched Steel Hall, I'm sure, can tell you that from seeing him play for a day or two. It's pretty obvious. Most of the guys who grade out well in athletic testing are really fast and really athletic, and it's pretty obvious to see, too.
00:55:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think where it's interesting, too, are the players that maybe you wouldn't look at and automatically assume. Right. They're really high-end athletes. Like, who is the catcher from South Carolina a year ago? Bigger-bodied catcher who was a great athlete. I'm blanking on his name. Yeah, Cole Messina. He was, like, an elite athletic tester. And if you watch him, like, he's a slow runner. He's a big-bodied guy. Like, the body doesn't look great. But, like, his underlying athletic testing skills... or scores or whatever metrics were really good. So the guys who are like kind of sneakily or surprisingly good on the athletic testing, maybe that's like an example of players where you've kind of circle back and say, okay, what, um, what is not obvious here that we know he's actually really good at and how can that maybe either change how we're going to view him either playing defensively moving forward or just things we could add to his game or improvements he could make because of that. baseline of athleticism or just maybe your ideas of like what that player's upside could be changes if you have that information.
00:56:33
Speaker 2: But cool.
00:56:34
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:56:35
Speaker 2: That's kind of exhausting. My thoughts on combine for this year.
00:56:38
Speaker 1: If there's anything else you want to talk through, Ben, throw it at me, but got a ton of stuff on the site. You guys want to dig fully into the combine. Also, I don't know if I mentioned this, we've got a leaderboard for just all this hitting data and all this pitching data for every player who did anything on field is on the site now.
00:56:54
Speaker 2: If you guys really want to comb.
00:56:55
Speaker 1: Through it player by player, sort by EVs or projected distance, spin rates, movement on pitch types, that's all on the.
00:57:04
Speaker 2: Site so you guys have access to it.
00:57:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, you want to talk some minor league prospects?
00:57:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, you might have to be driving the ship on this one because I feel like I've been completely zoned out from anything not Combine this week, but we're about to have a new update at some point, and then you've got some complex league guys to go through.
00:57:22
Speaker 2: So what's happening on the minor league side, Ben?
00:57:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a few guys who I think will probably end up moving up, or I will at least advocate to move up on our next top 100 come July. One of them is Travis Sikora. the nationals right-handed pitcher who's back now he is another member of that ultra talented 2023 high school class he was a third round pick that year but got you know he got 2.6 million dollars well over slot he was number 36 on our draft board that year he does not have a ton of innings this year because he's just coming back from the hip injury so it's been five starts in high a He's got a 39-6 strikeout to walk mark over 23 and two-thirds innings. It's a 152 ERA, and the stuff looks great. I mean, this is a 6'6, right-handed pitcher who is sitting in the mid-90s. We saw him throw triple digits in high school, even when he was an underclassman. He'll still flirt with that, but he's not just reaching back to throw the ball as hard as he can. There's a good amount of pitch ability here. from a guy who is both a good athlete and a student of the game and one of the questions that I had on him in high school was just how good the secondary stuff would be because it wasn't outstanding field to spin so you have a guy who you know obviously I did like but we've also seen a lot of hard throwers in high school who either couldn't throw strikes or didn't have much ability to manipulate a pitch beyond their fastball, get drafted high, or get paid a lot of money. over slot, and who never did much beyond high school baseball after that. And Sikora has figured out a way to optimize the movement and usage of the slider. It's getting a 58%. miss rate this year. He's also throwing it about a third of the time. So just pretty much identical to his fastball usage.
00:59:37
Speaker 2: Is he still just fastball slider split change? That's what he threw in high school.
00:59:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's, it's splitter. Yeah. So he, yeah, he's earlier in his high school career, you know, like pretty much everybody would throw a change up. He switched to a splitter, which you really don't see much in a young American player. pitcher and it's a pitch that's clicked for him it kills spin it's been a little inconsistent early this season but that's another real weapon for him so i mean he's already a top 50 prospect so i'm not saying like he's going to be top 10 or anything right now but i think he's a he's another candidate who could be who could be moving up i'm i'm pretty pretty encouraged by what he's been doing this.
01:00:25
Speaker 1: Season His walk rate in general throughout his pro career to this point has been really impressive to me. In his full season in 2024, his 85 innings, he walked just 8.2% of batters. It looks like it's improving this year, at least in high A specifically. Those five starts you mentioned, just a 7.1% walk rate. Knowing who he was coming out of high school, that is a much better mark than I would have expected him to have. this early in his pro career. Um, it's not like he was like massively scattered or like huge control questions, but he was never like a super precise strike thrower.
01:01:06
Speaker 2: Um, as far as I can recall.
01:01:07
Speaker 1: So that figure is really exciting to me when you pair it with just a really loud, pure stuff. And the fact that the slider is playing how it's playing, like you mentioned with that huge miss rate is exciting as well. So I'm trying to pull up the strikeout to walk leaders for pitchers like 21 and under, but I would imagine he's, he's near the top of that board, but yeah, pretty exciting to see how he's doing. I would imagine he keeps getting pushed pretty aggressively. If he keeps dominating at this level, it hasn't really struggled too much in the minor so far.
01:01:43
Speaker 3: No, I'm, I'm also going to continue to pound the table for a desire. Hope the Dodgers outfielder. He's, number 38 prospect in baseball. I think he, I think he's a top 25 prospect and I could see him ending the year as a top 10 prospect in the game. I think he's that good. He's 20 years old. He's hitting 304, 405, 487 in 63 games in high a it's 70 raw power from a short explosive swing. It can get a little steep, but it's not like crazy swing and miss that comes with his power. The, production between two levels of a ball this year last year has been elite and they got him it's interesting because i mean they got him in that michael bush trade from the cubs.
01:02:32
Speaker 1: Which jackson ferris probably was the headliner at the time although they were pretty similarly maybe they were similar right but ferris was definitely the more prominent prospect initially.
01:02:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it just continues to be a fascinating deal because the Dodgers definitely pried Hope away from the Cubs at a time when Hope was undervalued. But at the same time, Michael Bush was a three-win player for the Cubs last year as a rookie. He's at two wins above replacement right now. So he could end up with another three to four-win season in year two. He's not going to be a free agent until 2020. 29 2030 and the cubs are in first place right now so i mean they need they need the talent right now right it'll be a long time probably until we know like who ultimately uh wins the.
01:03:25
Speaker 1: Maybe they both are winners ben you know classic win-win trade.
01:03:30
Speaker 3: I don't know somebody's somebody's you don't always.
01:03:32
Speaker 2: Have to be winners and losers ahead.
01:03:34
Speaker 3: But i i mean yeah to your point i think the cubs are very happy to have michael bush and the dodgers are very happy to have zire open i'm sure the cubs wish that in hindsight they could have gotten away with that trade having given the cubs you're saying.
01:03:52
Speaker 1: The cubs are preying on zire hopes downfall is what you're saying yeah.
01:03:57
Speaker 3: No it's uh no i'm i'm really excited about zire hope i think it's a chance to be a middle of the lineup monster one.
01:04:05
Speaker 1: Day so you've got your like dodgers outfield riser and hope you've been like beating the desire hope drum for a while now are you as excited about mike serota who is also another like savvy trade pickup from the dodgers and that reds gavin lux deal and i think mike serota has been one of the best hitters in all the minor leagues i think that's still kind of the case for him i might have to jump on the serota train since i really liked him going into his draft year um, before he tumbled down the boards a bit, but you know, the Dodgers seem to have a pretty good knack for finding underrated players or just helping improve them.
01:04:42
Speaker 2: He's pretty good as well.
01:04:44
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:04:45
Speaker 3: No, I think you're, you've been all over the Mike Sirota bandwagon.
01:04:48
Speaker 1: You can have hope you can have, uh, the potential top 10 explosive double plus juice bat. And I'll take the well-rounded Michael Sirota and see what sort of power upside he's going to, be dealing with long term um who else you got.
01:05:05
Speaker 3: Well the other guy i think we'll move up in our next update too is another dodgers outfielder is eduardo quintero who he click from the 2023 international signing class they signed him for a little under three hundred thousand dollars from venezuela and He had been training as a catcher, but he was also super athletic, a legit plus runner, strong arm, really good hitter. So the Dodgers said, let's just put you in center field instead. He probably could have stayed a catcher, but then it's like, okay, well, that slowed down his offensive development with all the demands of staying behind the plate. I don't know, but they put him in center field and he just continues to hit. So he's 19 years old. He's in low A. He's hitting 335, 445, 602 in 45 games, 11 home runs, 44 walks, 64 strikeouts. He's got that barrel tip toward the pitcher, but the hands stay tight, connected to his body throughout his swing. There's a whip to the barrel through the zone. He has a good eye for balls and strikes. He takes his walks fast. the, the contact skills are good, not elite. I'd say it's the same with the power, but just a really well-rounded, a really well-rounded offensive player and a good athlete who I don't think he's a lock to play center field, but you know, he has the speed to play there and give them a chance to, to stay out there. So it's a, it's a pretty good run. I think on international signings for the Dodgers with, uh, Josue DiPaola in 22, Quintero in 23, and then Emil Morales last year, who's in Arizona right now.
01:06:58
Speaker 1: What stands out to me immediately when I'm just looking at his seasons, like just his performance numbers, is just the consistently high walk rate and consistently low strikeout rates. He's never had a 20% plus strikeout rate until this.
01:07:14
Speaker 2: Year in low A. Do you think that his walk rates.
01:07:17
Speaker 1: Basically being like 15, 17% for his minor league career are more reflective of just like the scattered strikes that he's facing in general. And maybe some, some passive swing tendencies or like an actual advanced approach that you would expect to continue as he climbs the minor league ladder.
01:07:35
Speaker 3: I would say yes to all of that. I think you can see if you're just a low a hitter. I mean, you could take a guy from, I don't know, just some random, um, D2 college right now and if he looks like he if the body just looks like it belongs in a professional uniform you can throw him up to the plate and just say hey man like don't swing.
01:07:59
Speaker 1: Yeah I always wonder like what OBP you could actually get in like either low A or the DSL if you've literally just never swung you just walk to the plate and never swung.
01:08:09
Speaker 3: Yeah well JJ just had this story on Javon Ward who's basically doing that right now um not doing much else except drawing a lot of walks and oh he has like a four or something obp and a pretty shiny i'm sure wrc plus because he's just extremely patient to the point of passivity but he's hitting 220.
01:08:33
Speaker 1: He's hitting 220 in high a with a 29.6 percent walk rate he's got a 134 wrc plus.
01:08:41
Speaker 3: Yeah. So it's like, all right. I mean, look, WRC plus is a valuable stat, especially for big leaguers, but it shows like the limitations when people get, oh, like this guy isn't hitting that well. But yeah, but look at this WRC plus in low A or high A or whatever. And it's like, yeah, well it's all just from drawing walks from being patient and not doing much else against a bunch of pitchers who aren't throwing strikes. But in Quintero's case, yes, he is a patient hitter, but I think that, you know, that patient approach will be an asset for him against more advanced pitchers. Cause I think that, The hitting ability and the power, again, neither one's like a 70-grade type tool, but they're both pretty good. And just the sum of the parts there, offensively, will continue, I think, to translate well at higher levels. Nice.
01:09:32
Speaker 2: Okay, cool.
01:09:33
Speaker 1: Some up-arrow guys on the 100 to keep an eye on, check in on. Yeah, I need to catch up on Sikor and actually watch a few of his games because he's been electric. But, okay, any other names you want to hit on or any other topics? today for the episode ben.
01:09:49
Speaker 3: Yeah the complex leagues are going now both uh and obviously the arizona complex league the florida complex league have been going for a little bit now and now the dsl uh got underway at the start of the month so um got some interesting standouts there i can talk through today i mean one of them i mean the royals they got a switch hitter Switch hitting shortstop Yandel Ricardo, who's 18 years old from Cuba, one of their big signings a couple or last year, I should say. Smooth swing, both sides of the plate, all the actions look right. He was one of my favorite players that I got to see before he signed in that 2024 signing class, which was actually the year that the Padres signed Leo Dallas-DeVrie. who's now a top 10 prospect in baseball, they would have actually signed DeVry and Ricardo that year. But then when they signed Xander Bogarts as a free agent, they lost a million dollars from their bonus pool. So Ricardo, he ended up signing with the Royals instead, which worked out for Ricardo because he ended up getting a little bit more money, but that would have been a pretty dynamite duo for the Padres if they could have gotten both those guys. Meanwhile, Xander Bogarts, not aging gracefully. No, but he still owed about a gazillion dollars over a lot of years on that contract. But yeah, I mean, Ricardo's hitting 342, 440, 538, 32 games in the ACL. Swing and miss a touch high, more yellow flag than red flag. But when you watch him play, everything looks right with him. Nice. Yeah, they got him. I mean, they've been signing some good players in the DSL. Ramsell Medina, shortstop, great start. I mean, DSL obviously much earlier in the season, so it's only 10 games, but 333, 455, 727, more walks and strikeouts. Got to see him play in the DR before he signed. Just an impressive hitter. Signed for a little under a million dollars. Always seemed to hit. Good timing, always on the barrel.
01:12:16
Speaker 1: He's got four triples in 10 games.
01:12:19
Speaker 2: That's pretty crazy.
01:12:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, good physical upside still. I mean, he's 6'2, athletic, lean, not like super. He doesn't have all those triples. Probably like an average runner, not super quick twitch.
01:12:30
Speaker 2: I'd be curious, too, how many of those triples are actually errors.
01:12:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, probably. I'm guessing some of those were not the cleanest.
01:12:38
Speaker 2: Or at least errors that.
01:12:41
Speaker 1: Even if they wouldn't ever be errors in any scoring capacity or at least not well-played balls, but that's pure speculation here, but I assume that is probably the case in the DSL typically.
01:12:50
Speaker 3: I think it's well-informed speculation on your part, but TBD, where he ends up defensively early on, I think it looked like third base, but his defense got better. I think right now it looks solid at shortstop. It gives him at least a greater probability to stay there higher up and still 17 years old. So pretty, uh, pretty exciting start for another Royals shortstop. They signed internationally.
01:13:20
Speaker 1: Nice.
01:13:21
Speaker 2: Okay. Uh, how many other guys do you want to run through here?
01:13:24
Speaker 3: Uh, I guess, let's see, looking around, looking around some of the other guys, June, the guardians have another couple of guys who are pretty good hitters.
01:13:36
Speaker 1: I'm hoping you're going to say Juniker Caceres. Cause I had him as a, A breakout pick in the Guardians list. I think he was in the early 20s. He was a breakout pick. So tell me he's doing well, Ben.
01:13:46
Speaker 2: I need this.
01:13:47
Speaker 3: Yeah. Juniker, Caceres.
01:13:50
Speaker 2: Well, I butchered his name, so.
01:13:52
Speaker 3: J-U-N-E-I-K-E-R. Spelled just like it sounds. I don't know what the issue is. No. Yeah, we talked about him on the pod before. I mean, he's a 2024 signing. Super young for the class. August birthday. So he's still 17. he raked in the DSL last year and now he's hitting three 13, four 41, five 38 in 26 games in the DSL, three home runs, more walks and strikeouts. He's five 10, not that tall, but he is strong. I mean, it's a good mix of ability to manipulate the barrel, to make a lot of contact and drive the ball with pretty high EVs for a 17 year old and generate a lot with that swing. So, um, corner outfielder like he's not a burner by any means but i do think he's one of the best prospects right now in the acl awesome yeah they got uh him and then in the in the dsl they got a shortstop from venezuela jose riera who they signed for four hundred thousand dollars he he's little i mean he's like five foot eight the guardians don't care because he can They've.
01:15:06
Speaker 2: Got a lot of short hitters in the Guardian system.
01:15:09
Speaker 1: It's worked out decently well for them.
01:15:12
Speaker 3: Our international reviews for the Guardians this year, we labeled him as a potential breakout prospect because he just always hits. It's one thing to do that as an amateur, but early on now in pro ball, it's. 353,. 511,. 735 in 45 plate appearances. That includes three home runs, which is a Very welcome sign because he just turned 17 and it's really more about strike zone discipline, compact swing, getting on plane early, play coverage, bat to ball skills. So to see him showing some sneaky juice. this early is good to see. They moved him all around the infield and more of an offensive minded player. And, you know, you'll figure out where he'll settle in on the infield later, but definitely a lot to be, be really encouraged by at the plate with.
01:16:09
Speaker 2: Awesome.
01:16:12
Speaker 3: I guess sticking to in the ale central area, I think that the Twins signing class from this year internationally is off to a really good start.
01:16:23
Speaker 1: Don't tell me there's a bunch of hurt prospects, Ben. We need some healthy players actually doing things for the Twins.
01:16:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, we'll see how it goes by the end of the season, but one of the big players they got is Tylon Serrano, who they added very late in the process. He's an outfielder who was going to sign with the Dodgers. And then there was all that uncertainty surrounding Roki Sasaki and the teams that might sign him leading up to January 15th. And if they'd have the bonus pool money to sign, you know, all their commitments and Sasaki. So the Dodgers ended up losing a few players who got more money from other teams and Serrano was one of them. And he looks, he looks really good. I mean, it's compact, explosive, left-handed swing. 324, 439, 588 through 10 games, a couple home runs, contact, impact. He's athletic, plus runner. See much of that speed that he's able to hold on to, but he's kind of a thicker six-foot build, but he could be an above-average defender if he goes to a corner. But it definitely looks like he's going to be or has a chance to be a dangerous offensive threat, 25-plus home run, upside with hitting ability that's translating in games. I mean, him and I mean, Harrison Castillo is probably maybe not the same upside, but performance wise early on has been just as good or better. I mean, there's a big money signing this year for 15, five, 12, six, 76 and 10 games. He's he's five, 10, like not super toolsy or twitchy, but switch hitter, short swing, both sides, good barrel accuracy and, um good offensive approach for a 17 year old hit over power not the upside of serrano but the bat has has has played well.
01:18:24
Speaker 2: So far okay good deal for minnesota then.
01:18:29
Speaker 3: Yeah and then uh i guess i'll give you a give you one more this guy's a a sleeper we wrote him up as one of the um One of the sleepers to watch from the Marlins international class this year in their international review, Luis Arana. He's a switch hitting shortstop from Venezuela. Signed him for $ 30, 000. He has yet to strike out at all in his first 48 plate appearances, hitting 389, 542, 667, 10 walks, officially two home runs, unofficially he has three homers one of them was just in a rain delayed game so oh i don't know if you can can't count that yet but he did i mean he's got some real tools right yeah he's not not just like a little guy without other tools like there's a lot of quick twitch and explosiveness in there plus runner above average arm like And when he's in Venezuela, he was training as an outfielder. He moved to shortstop before he signs. They've used him at shortstop and third base. You know, you sign a lot of shortstops. You got to move guys around just to keep everybody in the lineup, even if you have multiple teams in the DSL. But, you know, we'll see where he ends up. But the contact skills have been great. And there's more tools and more athleticism than you might think. with Luis Serrano for a smaller, high-contact guy who was not a big bonus signing.
01:20:12
Speaker 1: So is he a guy who just seems missed on, or the explosiveness came on later, or what?
01:20:19
Speaker 3: I think just being a smaller guy, being in Venezuela, I don't recall the program he came from, but there's just always guys... like that where, especially in Venezuela, if you're not in a bigger program, it's harder to get seen.
01:20:38
Speaker 2: I would imagine.
01:20:40
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:20:40
Speaker 3: Cause you, you don't have a lot of American scouts, um, who are flying into Venezuela right now. Like, you know, well, this is just, there's aren't a lot of guys going. There are some guys who do, um, and the teams who do, I think send their higher level scouts, um, to see players definitely have an advantage. But a lot of the bigger showcases and bigger events for Venezuelan players right now happen in Colombia. So if you're in a smaller program, you're not like a super high profile guy and you're not going to these events in Colombia, like you're not traveling outside of Venezuela, it's harder sometimes to get seen by the higher level players decision makers. So I think that can, you know, look like they're lower bonus guys in the Dominican Republic too, who, you know, end up being pretty good players, but I think specifically in Venezuela, that's one of the factors and it's like, it's a big country, right? So if you're, even if you are a scout from outside of Venezuela, going into the country, it's not like the DR where you can kind of go around the whole country in a in a day um it's a pretty wide geographic area to to cover so i think it can be easier for sometimes for players to slip through uh slip to the cracks especially when you're trying to you know teams are making these decisions at such a young age on these.
01:22:16
Speaker 1: Players that makes a ton of sense okay uh so some process from the royals guardians marlins twins here uh be able to keep an eye on Moving forward, nice to see that we're at least hitting early with some of these sleeper picks.
01:22:31
Speaker 2: That's always fun.
01:22:33
Speaker 1: Okay, I think that's going to do it for us today, Ben, unless there's anything else you guys or anything else you wanted to talk about.
01:22:39
Speaker 2: A quick note for.
01:22:40
Speaker 1: Next week's podcast might be a little bit later again in the week than normal. We're both kind of in the midst of the heavy travel season, but we are planning to record next Saturday, I think, Ben.
01:22:52
Speaker 2: Is that right?
01:22:53
Speaker 1: I'll be able to make that work if you can. But just just a heads up to you guys, if you're expecting a Friday podcast might not happen, but we're still planning to not skip the week entirely.
01:23:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, probably just be a day later than usual.
01:23:05
Speaker 2: Cool.
01:23:06
Speaker 1: All right.
01:23:07
Speaker 2: Any final closing remarks, Ben, before we get out of here?
01:23:13
Speaker 3: No, I don't.
01:23:14
Speaker 1: Cool.
01:23:15
Speaker 2: All right.
01:23:16
Speaker 1: Well, that's going to wrap it for us today. Thank you guys for hanging out. Thanks for listening. Thanks for supporting BA as always. We have gotten a few new reviews on the show, which is cool to see. So if you guys are new listeners or long-time listeners and haven't given us a review and you feel so inclined, we do really appreciate those reviews. I'm pretty sure it helps push the podcast out to other people who might enjoy it. And if you want to just recommend us to a friend who, you know, likes baseball and would get something from this pod, that would be A great help for us as well.
01:23:45
Speaker 2: But either way, thank you guys for hanging out. Thanks for listening. We will see you next time. So long.